My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

As impressive as the Eagles have been from wire-to-wire this season I'm not sure the casual NFL viewer/follower realizes just how good this team is from top-to-bottom. There's been a lot of talk about how the Eagles have got off easy this season, facing a lighter schedule than most, even if the truth is they've gone against a very comparable slate of opponents to that of the Chiefs, for example. With QB Jalen Hurts healthy, the Eagles have been virtually unstoppable on offense and the same goes for the defense from a health perspective. When at full strength, as is the case right now, there's no more talented defense in the NFL even going position-by-position. Yes, the Chiefs legacy continues to grow with the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce the true faces of the franchise through it all. I'm concerned about just how banged-up they are, even with the bye week, heading into this contest. On so many occasions, Kansas City has been forced to rely upon Patrick Mahomes heroics (and the exploits of his supporting cast). Yes, the defense has come up big at times as well, most notably late in the Divisional Round win over the Jaguars, but I don't put that unit on nearly the same plane as that of the Eagles. Offensively, the Eagles have an incredibly versatile attack that can beat you in a number of different ways. The emergence of second-year WR DeVonta Smith has made them that much more explosive, and I think the production of TE Dallas Goedert gets overshadowed as well. The same goes for RB Miles Sanders, who is often afforded gaping holes to run through thanks to an all-world offensive line. I could go on, but the fact is, the Eagles have been the best team in the NFL all season long, and as difficult as it is to fade Reid, Mahomes and company, I'm willing to do it at what I consider to be a short number here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Bengals have enjoyed tremendous success over the course of the last two seasons and will look to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl for the second straight year on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I expect them to fall short. The Chiefs got a scare last Saturday when Patrick Mahomes suffered what appeared to be a devastating ankle injury early in the game against the Jaguars. Mahomes would ultimately return and Kansas City gutted out a tough 27-20 win over a game Jacksonville squad. I actually think the Chiefs are better for it after going through their share of adversity in that game. To say that this Kansas City squad is seasoned for this type of environment would be an understatement. The core of this team has seen it all and been here before (multiple times), most notably the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. I'm confident that all three will play a significant role in booking a ticket back to the Super Bowl on Sunday. Last week, Cincinnati was able to overcome its significant absences on its offensive line. Here, I'm not sure it will be so fortunate, at least not when a big play is needed late. The Chiefs defense certainly doesn't get enough credit in the shadow of Mahomes and the team's explosive offense. While it will undoubtedly have its hands full with an elite Bengals offense here, I believe this is a group that expects to come up with that big play late, just as we saw last Saturday when it secured a critical interception in the latter stages of the fourth quarter against Jacksonville. Even on a bad ankle, Mahomes is capable of contributing his share of big plays on the offensive side of the football. Unlike last week when the Bengals benefited from facing a mistake-prone Bills offense, this time around they'll likely need to make their own breaks as Kansas City takes care of the football (only two turnovers in its last four games - both in Week 17 against Denver). I simply feel the Chiefs are the superior team and the fact that we're being asked to lay less than a field goal with them at home, in this rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game (which they lost) is a bargain. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We backed the 49ers as our top side play of the entire season last week so I obviously have plenty of respect for the Kyle Shanahan-led squad. With that being said, I feel this is the week to jump off as the Niners enter riding a 12-game winning streak but prepare to face what I feel has been and is the most complete team in the NFL this season. The calf injury to Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is certainly a concern, even if they do have plenty of depth at the position, not to mention other ways to attack the Eagles defense. My concern for San Francisco here is that Philadelphia has the type of pass defense that can all but erase a guy like WR Brandon Aiyuk and even TE George Kittle. Deebo Samuel is still going to get his, especially if McCaffrey is less than 100% healthy but I'm not convinced that will be enough. Offensively, the Eagles are well-positioned to eat with QB Jalen Hurts looking prolific-as-always in last Saturday's rout of the Giants and the WR duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith well-positioned to go off against a middle-of-the-road Niners pass defense. The injury to RB Tony Pollard absolutely derailed the Cowboys hopes of staging an upset of the Niners last Sunday. Here, I'm confident we'll see Eagles RB Miles Sanders have a productive afternoon to keep the San Francisco pass rush honest, noting also that Philadelphia possesses a truly elite offensive line, both in pass and run-blocking. This is a battle of two ultra-talented teams, both coming in playing their best football. I simply feel that the Eagles have a little more on both sides of the football and will ultimately book their ticket for Arizona on Sunday afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

While the 49ers have been on an incredible run, not to mention the fact they've been the best bet in the NFL since mid-November, I can't help but feel they're just scratching the surface and dare I say still undervalued as they head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday.

Yes, the Cowboys impressed in Monday's complete dismantling of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa. However, that lopsided result had a lot to do with the inept nature of the Bucs, who by all accounts were nothing more than a middle-of-the-road team all season, benefiting from residing in a weak NFC South division. Tampa Bay didn't exactly throw a haymaker against what was admittedly a well-prepared Dallas squad that looked like a team on a mission after suffering an embarrassing loss on the road against Washington in the final week of the regular season. The Cowboys are in line for a 'shock to the system' here, however, as they stay on the road for a fourth straight game to face a 49ers team that is quite simply 'firing on all cylinders'.

San Francisco took a punch in the first half against the Seahawks last Saturday and I'm glad they did. The fact is, the Niners have faced a fairly breezy schedule going all the way back to mid-November. A little bit of adversity wasn't the worst thing for them to face in the Wild Card round and I believe they're better for it.

To say that the Niners are a difficult team to defend is putting it mildly. They have a multi-pronged attack that is unlikely anything we've seen in recent years and they've been taken to the next level by rookie QB Brock Purdy who continues to prove he is indeed the 'real deal'. The Cowboys have only really faced 'dink-and-dunk' type offenses over the last three games, so again I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check here.

While I have a lot of respect for the Cowboys offense, I'm still not convinced they'll lean as heavily on RB Tony Pollard as they should, still bent on giving Ezekiel Elliott his share of the pie in an offense where he should realistically only play a bit part (in my opinion).

QB Dak Prescott avoided the mistakes that had previously plagued him against the Bucs on Monday, but he was rarely under much duress in that contest. He's sure to face a lot more pressure against the 49ers elite defense here.

The Niners have absolutely stamped out opposing running games this season and likely puts a whole lot more on Dak's plate - similar to what we saw in recent road games against the Titans and Commanders in which the Cowboys ultimately turned the football over five times (they didn't commit a single turnover in Monday's win in Tampa). The 49ers have forced at least one turnover in 10 consecutive games and two or more in eight of those contests.

This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card game between these two teams in Dallas - a game the 49ers won by a 23-17 score. That final score was actually flattering to the Cowboys in my opinion. I expect San Francisco to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Giants (and the 'over') in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Minnesota. While a lot of bettors are confident going back to the well with the G-Men in an underdog role again here, I think they're looking for something that's quite simply not there.

The Eagles are an elite team this season, in all facets. The bye week certainly helped their cause with QB Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders among those looking to get back to 100% health, or as close to it as possible.

Last week's matchup with the Vikings was a dream scenario for the Giants as Minnesota featured a listless defense that couldn't pressure the quarterback, couldn't stop the run and couldn't stop the pass. The Giants were effectively able to do whatever they wanted offensively - everything worked. I expect a much different story to unfold here.

The one time the Eagles saw Giants RB Saquon Barkley this season, they held him to just 48 yards.

Last week's big performance through the air from New York QB Daniel Jones was largely matchup-related. He's going to find the going a lot tougher against the Eagles shutdown secondary led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

On the flip side, the Giants figure to have an extremely difficult time slowing the Eagles offense, particularly on the ground. Sanders absolutely torched the Giants in their regular season matchup in New York, finding the end zone twice on 155 yards.

The presence of Giants CB Adoree' Jackson (he missed the two regular season meetings) certainly helps their cause, but the emergence of Eagles WR Devonta Smith to compliment A.J. Brown figures to present New York with a 'pick-your-poison' situation here.

As is often the case, look for the superior, not to mention rested team to roll in this Divisional Round matchup. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points first half over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I see this as a 'shock to the system' spot for the Cowboys after closing out the regular season with games against Josh Dobbs and the Titans and Sam Howell and the Commanders. Neither of those quarterbacks instilled much fear in the Cowboys defense but this is a much different situation on Monday as they go against Tom Brady and an 'as healthy as its been all season' supporting cast of weapons. To be honest, I'm not all that confident in putting this game into the hands of head coaches Mike McCarthy and Raheem Morris and their decision-making in the second half. Instead, we'll back the Bucs with a one-point cushion in the game's first 30 minutes, noting that Tampa Bay has led 21-16 and 12-3 in the two previous meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season and was also tied or leading in three of its final four regular season contests. Take Tampa Bay first half (8*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

I'm far more interested in backing the Chargers minus the short number in the first half rather than the full game in this one as head coach Brandon Staley's crunch-time coaching decisions have rightfully been called to question ever since he took over the gig. Here, I do think the Bolts have enough early advantages to take a lead into the locker room at halftime.

Note that Los Angeles is 10-1 against the first half line when seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Jaguars boat-raced the Chargers at SoFi Stadium earlier this season. Better still, the Chargers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the same stretch. In that situation, they've outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.8 points in the first half.

Meanwhile, the Jags are a woeful 0-7 ATS against the first half line when playing at home after a division game over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.0 points on average in that spot.

I like the way this matchup sets up on paper for the Chargers as the Jags haven't been particularly stout against the pass this season and have struggled in particular defending opposing running backs that can catch the football. Of course the Bolts have one of the best in that department in Austin Ekeler, who enters the playoffs on a red hot tear. The same goes for QB Justin Herbert, who had a fantastic final two regular season games, tossing four touchdown passes.

It's a different story for Jags sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence. He struggled down the stretch, even in last Saturday's must-win game against the Titans, which the Jags did manage to pull out by the skin of their teeth. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The coaching change seemed to provide the Broncos with a spark last week as they fell just short in a near-upset in Kansas City. Here, I look for them to snap their two-game skid, while also wrecking Los Angeles' four-game winning streak in the process. This is a game Denver has almost certainly had circled on its calendar since dropping a tough 19-16 decision in a Thursday night game in Los Angeles back in mid-October. While it remains to be seen how much or if Chargers starters will play in this game, the Broncos do have most of their offensive weapons at their disposal. Of course, I use that term 'weapons' somewhat lightly given how they've performed with QB Russell Wilson running the show this season. Nevertheless, I like this spot fading the Chargers after they clinched a playoff berth last week. Take Denver (8*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I simply feel the Raiders are a dangerous team with nothing to lose here in Week 18 of the regular season. We certainly saw plenty of fight from Las Vegas last Sunday as it gave San Francisco all it could handle but ultimately lost by a field goal for the second straight week. QB Jarrett Stidham gave the Raiders offense some life and I think we'll see some carry-over effect from last week's performance here. The Chiefs are just 6-10 ATS on the season, including 3-5 ATS away from home. Meanwhile, the Raiders check in an impressive 5-2 ATS here at Allegiant Stadium. While Kansas City has won four straight games, three of those contests could have gone either way. Who knows what the future holds for the Raiders franchise on many fronts, but here I look for them to give the division-rival Chiefs all they can handle in the regular season finale for both teams. Take Las Vegas (10*).

My selection is on USC minus the points over Tulane at 1 pm et on Monday.

We successfully faded USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game as it got its doors blown off in the second half against Utah. In fact, the Trojans only two losses this season have come by way of the Utes. Here, we'll back the Trojans and fade Tulane as it enters this New Year's Bowl game off three consecutive wins, both SU and ATS. I simply feel that Lincoln Riley's USC squad poses similar problems that the Green Wave faced against Central Florida and its high-powered offense back in mid-November - a game Tulane lost by a touchdown at home (it did get its revenge in the AAC Championship Game). Noting that USC is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 lined games off a straight-up defeat, we'll confidently back it here. Take USC (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts are going to be in tough playing on the road on a short week with a seemingly lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday not to mention a journeyman quarterback nearing the end of his career in Nick Foles. Nothing worked for the Colts in Monday's loss to the Chargers - on either side of the football. Things aren't likely to get any better here as they hit the road to face the playoff-hungry Giants who are coming off a disappointing last-second loss against the Vikings last Sunday. Credit New York for hanging in there despite the red hot Minnesota offense racking up 270 yards through the air on 34 Kirk Cousins pass completions. While it never feels all that comfortable laying more than a field goal with an offensively-limited team such as the Giants, the fact is they've been winning by margin. Since opening the season with consecutive wins by a field goal or less, their last six victories have come by 8, 5, 4, 6, 8 and 8 points. That's four out of six victories by more than the spread we're dealing with this week (at the time of writing) with the other two coming against potential playoff-bound teams in the Packers and Ravens. I like the fact that Giants RB Saquon Barkley should be fresh for this one after a limited workload last Sunday in Minnesota (the Giants ran the football 21 times - their lowest rush attempt total since Thanksgiving in Dallas). Also helping New York's cause is the absence of one of Indianapolis' best defenders in slot corner Kenny Moore. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Ohio State plus the points over Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I believe this game has 'instant classic' potential as one-loss Ohio State challenges undefeated Georgia in the Peach Bowl on Saturday night. Ohio State checks in off consecutive ATS losses to end the regular season, including a stunning blowout defeat at the hands of rival Michigan, at home no less, in its finale. It's a much different story for Georgia as it rolled to a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game the last time it took the field earlier this month. Sure, the defending National Champion Bulldogs are undefeated, but they went largely untested over the course of the regular season and SEC Championship Game. This is only the second time all season they've been less than a double-digit favorite. The other occasion came against Tennessee in early November, when the Vols began a late season swoon. Ohio State only managed to cover the spread in one of its last four games from November on but it's worth noting that it forced only one turnover over that stretch. Georgia, for all of its strengths, does check in having turned the football over at least once in six straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. Here, we'll note that the Buckeyes are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games when playing away from home off a home loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 contests following a home defeat against a conference opponent. Take Ohio State (8*).

My selection is on Iowa minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday.

While the Hawkeyes quarterback situation is a bit of a mess heading into this Bowl rematch against Kentucky, I can't be convinced that anyone in Iowa's QB room represents much of a downgrade from incumbent Spencer Petras. Iowa has completed more than 18 passes in a game only twice this season, to mixed results. While the Hawkeyes will be missing Petras amongst a laundry list of players sitting out, the argument could still be made that they're in better shape than the Wildcats in that regard. Here, we'll fade Kentucky off consecutive ATS wins to close out the regular season as it hung tough against mighty Georgia before laying waste to Louisville. Iowa had been rolling, winning four games in a row both SU and ATS before being stunned by Nebraska as a double-digit favorite on Black Friday. Give me the better defense and perhaps the offense that's better-suited to effectively shorten what shapes up as an ugly one with the total set in the low-30's. Take Iowa (8*).

My selection is on Ohio minus the points over Wyoming at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

Wyoming was already going to be one of the weakest teams to take the field during Bowl season and now with a number of key injuries, transfers and opt-outs the Cowboys are in even rougher shape heading into this matchup with Ohio. While the Bobcats will be without QB Kurtis Rourke, I still like them to rebound following a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo. It's easy to forget that Ohio had been rolling prior to that setback and I'm confident we'll see it bounce back and end its campaign on a winning note in Arizona on Friday. Take Ohio (8*).

My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over South Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Friday.

I'll lay the points with Notre Dame as I'm not buying what South Carolina is selling off consecutive outright underdog wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the regular season. While much of the talk surrounds who won't be playing in this contest, the Irish still have a talent-laden squad looking to put a positive cap on an up and down season that most recently saw them fall by double-digits against USC. In a game where I expect both teams to employ a run-centric offensive gameplan, I'll gladly fade a Gamecocks squad that didn't travel well defensively, particularly against the run as they were torched for 5.4 yards per rush away from home. Look for Notre Dame to end Marcus Freeman's first season at the helm on a high note here. Take Notre Dame (8*).

My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Friday.

The Bruins fell out of favor with many bettors thanks to an 0-3 ATS slide to close out the regular season. After starting the campaign 8-1, UCLA dropped two of its last three games SU to drop from what likely would have been a more prestigious Bowl game as well. I don't expect the Bruins to be short on motivation, however. Both teams are going to be missing a number of key contributors due to transfers and opt-outs, although the argument could be made that the Bruins are in slightly better shape in that regard, as indicated by the pointspread we're dealing with here. We'll lay the points. Take UCLA (8*).

My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Maryland at 12 noon et on Friday.

Maryland heads into this Bowl matchup off a 37-0 drubbing of Rutgers. The Terps didn't gain Bowl eligibility until the second-last game of the regular season. On a positive note, Maryland did go an even 6-6 ATS in lined contests during the regular season while N.C. State went a woeful 4-8 ATS. That's largely a product of everyone being so high on the Wolfpack going into this season. They delivered the cash in two of their first three contests and ultimately ended up being overvalued most of the way. That's not the case here as they're in a pk'em price range against Maryland. Here, we'll note that Maryland is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following a win by 21 or more points against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (8*).

My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Oklahoma at 5:30 pm et on Thursday.

I simply feel that Oklahoma has too many key losses to overcome on offense in order to keep pace with one of the more underrated offensive teams in the country this season in Florida State. We actually won fading the Seminoles with the rival Florida Gators in their regular season finale. That was a back-and-forth contest that the 'Noles took over in the second half and we were probably fortunate to cash our ticket with Florida. Oklahoma will have to make do without RB Eric Gray and a pair of critical offensive linemen in Wanya Morris and Anton Harris, with that trio opting-out of this Bowl game. I would anticipate the Sooners scaling back their offense somewhat with those absences in mind, not a good thing when you're trying to keep up with an offense as explosive as Florida State's. The Seminoles will have no such issues in terms of opt-outs. QB Jordan Travis will start and has announced his return for next season. Here, he'll face a sieve-like Sooners defense that didn't travel particularly well this season, allowing 4.8 yards per rush and 7.2 yards per pass attempt away from home. Take Florida State (8*).

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Utah State at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday.

To put it simply, I believe Memphis is a better team than its 6-6 overall record would seem to indicate while Utah State is worse than it's own six-win campaign shows. Utah State opened the season with four losses in its first five games - with the only win coming against a down-trodden (at the time) UConn squad that was just figuring things out. From there the Aggies posted a stunning win over Air Force (with the benefit of playing that game at home) and then got on a bit of a run in early November thanks to a forgiving slate of games that saw them face New Mexico and San Jose State at home and lowly Hawaii on the road. Only one of those three victories came in comfortable fashion (against New Mexico). The Aggies are expected to have RB Calvin Tyler for this game, despite him declaring for the NFL Draft. I'm always hesitant to project playing time for players in similar situations in these lower-end Bowl games. Third-string QB Cooper Legas is expected to start once again. He's proven to be a sack-taking and interception-throwing machine this season in place of Utah State's best two options at the position. Memphis saw three of its six losses during the regular season come by a field goal or less. I liked what I saw out of the Tigers down the stretch as they beat Tulsa handily at home and gave SMU all it could handle on the road in going a perfect 3-0 ATS over their last three contests. Stout against the run (they've allowed just 3.5 yards per rush this season with an insignificant drop-off when playing away from home) they're well-positioned to slow down the Aggies inconsistent offense here. Speaking of consistency, Memphis has scored at least 24 points in all 12 games this season. Utah State was held under the number on five different occasions during the regular season. I like the fact that Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield was given a vote of confidence despite the middling campaign. He's been told that he will be back for the 2023 season. Take Memphis (10*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

We'll take this opportunity to fade the injury-riddled Rams one more time on Sunday as they return home on a short week to host the Broncos. Denver's defense should feast on a depleted Rams offense that is now without WR Ben Skowronek in addition to all of the key contributors they were previously missing, particularly on the offensive line. While I'm by no means high on the Broncos offense, I do believe they can find plenty of open field against Los Angeles here. The Rams seemingly gave their backers some false hope with that come-from-behind home win over the Raiders two-plus weeks ago. I think we saw something closer to the real Rams in their current state in Monday's ugly road loss against the Packers. Returning home where there might be as many Broncos fans as Rams fans in the stands, we'll back the visitors here. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over San Diego State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll fade the Aztecs here against an underrated Middle Tennessee State squad that quietly finished the regular season with three straight victories. San Diego State's offense turned around after a coaching shake-up earlier in the season, with quarterback turned safety turned quarterback Jaylen Mayden taking over under center. From my perspective, Mayden is a sack-taking and interception-making machine and I believe the Middle Tennessee State defense can take advantage. Note that the Blue Raiders forced three or more turnovers in five of 12 games this season. Given a couple of extra possessions, I don't expect MTSU to have too much difficulty staying inside this lofty pointspread. Keep in mind, while the Aztecs plodding offense took much of the flack early in the campaign, their defense never showed a great deal of consistency over the course of the season either, allowing 27 or more points on five different occasions. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*).

Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Louisiana at 3 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this Bowl matchup sets up for Houston, which had a down year by program standards but still managed to win seven games and I believe will get up for this matchup against Louisiana. Note that QB Clayton Tune and WR Nathaniel Dell both announced that they'll play in this game - a clear sign that the team is taking this Bowl appearance seriously. Dell in particular could have easily opted out after declaring for the NFL Draft. It's a much different story for Louisiana, which will be missing its top wide receiver and perhaps best offensive player in WR Michael Jefferson. Remember, the Ragin' Cajuns already lost QB Ben Wooldridge for the season back in November. Backup Chandler Fields has held his own but has taken a ton of sacks given his limited playing time and has also proven to be turnover-prone through the air. Houston didn't have a banner campaign from a defensive standpoint - far from it, in fact - but it is just one game removed from its best defensive performance of the season in a 42-3 rout of East Carolina, on the road no less. Louisiana faced a relatively weak schedule this season and fell hard (by a 49-17 score) in a late step-up game against Florida State. The Ragin' Cajuns enter this contest off a 41-13 win at Texas State but it's worth noting that they went 0-3 SU and ATS after scoring 30 or more points in a game this season, dropping those three decisions by 12, 15 and 32 points. Take Houston (10*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While the presence of Zach Wilson under center will keep a lot of bettors off the Jets on Thursday night, I'm not in that group as I expect them to take full advantage of this winnable in-conference matchup in primetime. Last Sunday's game had a dream setup for the Jets as they hosted the Lions who happened to be in a prime letdown spot. New York had every opportunity to win that game but ultimately fell apart late, allowing Detroit to sneak through the back door with a late touchdown. Here, I don't believe Jacksonville will be so fortunate. The Jags of course pulled off a stunning home upset over the Cowboys last Sunday, rallying from down big early to steal a victory in overtime. That win didn't come without a price, however, as the Jags lost key offensive lineman Cam Robinson and now go against a fierce Jets defense that I'm still not sure gets enough praise or credit for all it has accomplished this season. The Jags offense is undoubtedly on the rise but here, on a short week, off that massive performance last Sunday, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order. I mentioned the presence of Jets QB Zach Wilson earlier. He's starting out of necessity only as Mike White remains sidelined. I actually thought Wilson had one of his better games against the Lions last Sunday, even if he did make a couple of boneheaded mistakes. Here, I don't think we'll see the Jets heap too much on Wilson's plate. The Jags don't defend the pass particularly well, nor do they do a great job of containing opposing running backs, both on the ground and in the short passing game. Note that Jacksonville will be without one of its best pass rushers in first overall draft pick Travon Walker for this one. I believe this line will prove too short in favor of the home side. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I'll grab all the points I can get with Liberty on Tuesday as it looks to make it four consecutive Bowl victories while adding to Toledo's postseason woes under head coach Jason Candle. The Flames are turning the page after head coach Hugh Freeze bolted for Auburn. If anything the rumors swirling around Freeze and the Auburn job down the stretch only served to distract a team that had been rolling prior to losing its final three contests. Liberty's most recent victory was an impressive one as it defeated Arkansas 21-19, on the road no less. After dealing with injuries to its top two quarterbacks down the stretch, all indications are that the Flames quarterback room is healthy and ready to roll against the Rockets here. Defensively, Liberty did lose linebacker Ahmad Walker to the transfer portal and that stings to be sure. However, this is a deep group and one that proved it can handle a mobile quarterback similar to the one they'll face tonight in Dequan Finn, limiting Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson to just 36 rush yards on 16 attempts, good for only 2.3 yards per rush, back in early November. Toledo has dropped the cash in five of its last six games. Prior to its win and cover in the MAC Championship Game it needed to score 38 points or more in its four previous ATS victories this season. Take Liberty (8*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Credit the Rams for rallying, led by QB Baker Mayfield, a week ago Thursday, stunning the Raiders with a pair of late touchdowns to steal a victory at home. That win had more to do with Las Vegas taking its foot off the gas than anything else - something I don't expect the Packers to do in front of their home faithful at Lambeau Field on Monday. It's easy to forget Green Bay actually won (and covered) in its most recent game two weeks ago in Chicago. That solid performance against a 'tough out' in the Bears proved that the Pack haven't given up on the season. In fact, I believe their trajectory is pointed up with their offense finally coming around and well-positioned to feast against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense on Monday. RB Aaron Jones has been dealing with a multitude of injuries but coming off the bye week should be as healthy as he's been in quite some time, and he stands to benefit more than anyone on the Packers offense from the absence of Donald and key run-stopper A'Shawn Robinson. All of the talk last week was about Baker Mayfield somehow absorbing enough of the Rams offensive playbook in just two days (he had signed with the team earlier in the week). Now he's had a little more time to digest the Rams offensive scheme so many expect him to come out firing on Monday. I expect precisely the opposite, noting that Mayfield is still operating behind a poor run and pass blocking offensive line (mostly due to injuries) and with a limited group of weapons around him. Green Bay, despite its overall struggles this season, has remained stout against the pass and should be able to snuff out any thought of Mayfield stringing together a second straight solid performance. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs almost let one get away after building a big early lead in Denver last Sunday. I don't expect them to let their foot off the gas again this week, however, and they catch the lowly Texans in a prime letdown spot off last week's near-upset win in Dallas. While Kansas City did allow 28 points against a seemingly punchless Broncos squad last Sunday, that poor performance can't really be pinned entirely on the defense as the offense turned the football over three times. You can be sure head coach Andy Reid has been preaching about playing a 'clean' football game in response this Sunday. The Texans were already down-trodden defensively and now they'll have to deal with the absence of both corners, standout rookie Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Chiefs offense. While Kansas City enters this game off consecutive ATS losses, it has yet to drop the cash in three straight games this season, responding by scoring 41 and 44 points in two previous contests following consecutive ATS defeats here in 2022. The Texans ultimately covered the spread in Dallas last Sunday but haven't delivered back-to-back ATS victories since way back in Weeks 1 and 2 this season. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Ravens last Sunday in Pittsburgh but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Browns as they host Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. It wasn't pretty, but the Ravens got the job done against the Steelers last week. QB Tyler Huntley turned in a gutsy performance but now has to play on a short week after suffering a head injury in last Sunday's game. Baltimore will certainly look to lean on its defense again here, but I don't like the spot as Browns QB Deshaun Watson has now had two games under his belt - both on the road no less - and can lean heavily on his backfield, which is line line for a sharp bounce-back performance here. Baltimore has been excellent against the run lately, but has faced a rather straight-forward slate of opponents going all the way back to late October when it travelled to Tampa. The Ravens last six games have come against teh Bucs, Saints, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers - none of which boast a ground attack as dynamic as Cleveland's in my opinion. I saw enough good things from Watson last Sunday and enough improvement from the Browns lagging defense (noting that they catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up Ravens offense here) to warrant a shot with the revenge-minded home side here. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Fresno State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I like the set up for Washington State here as it comes off an embarrassing 51-33 loss against rival Washington in the Apple Cup and faces a Fresno State squad that is perhaps primed for a letdown off an upset win over Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Yes, the Cougars have been ravaged by opt-outs and transfers and also their offensive and defensive coordinators ahead of this game. I believe we're seeing a definite overreaction that all of that news, however, with Washington State shifting from a 2.5-point favorite at open to a 4.5-point underdog currently. Fresno State was able to pull away from the awful teams it faced over the course of the regular season (I'm talking about the likes of Cal Poly, New Mexico, Hawaii, Nevada and Wyoming). Rarely did it step up in class and win in convincing fashion, however, with the exception being that 28-16 victory over Boise State in the MWC Championship Game. Everyone is down on Washington State after that blowout loss to Washington after it had previously reeled off four consecutive ATS wins. While there's plenty of talk about the Cougars personnel losses entering this game, they will get back one of their best defenders in CB Armani Marsh, a true difference-maker in the secondary and a huge plus against a dynamic Fresno State passing attack led by QB Jake Haener. Take Washington State (8*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think a lot of bettors are talking themselves into backing the home divisional underdog in Seattle on Thursday but I feel it's the wrong move. I don't believe 49ers QB Brock Purdy is going to be a 'one-and-done' story. Yes, he is probably getting too much hype off last Sunday's monster first half against the Buccaneers. That doesn't mean that he can't enjoy continued success, however. The fact is, the Niners gameplan should be focused around getting RB Christian McCaffrey the ball here anyway as the Seahawks have been dismal against the run and could be without one of their best run-stoppers in DT Al Woods after he suffered an achilles injury in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers. The Niners have injury issues of their own, of course, most notably to do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel. This is a deep offense, however, and I'm confident we'll see guys like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even Jauan Jennings step up in Samuel's absence. While San Francisco has yielded plenty of yardage to opposing wide receivers this season, that's really only because it has been playing from ahead so much and opponents have bailed on their ground attacks after gaining little headway. How about this - the Niners last six opponents have run for 56, 51, 67, 63, 33 and 69 yards. While I am high on Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker, who is expected to return from injury here, I'm not convinced he'll do anything other than run into the Niners line over and over again on Thursday. Seattle allowed a whopping 30 points to the lowly Panthers last week. That's notable when you consider the Niners haven't allowed 30 points over their last three-and-a-half games. In fact, the Seahawks have yielded 93 points over their last three contests while San Francisco hasn't given up that many points over its last six games combined. I did consider playing the Niners on the moneyline here given the fact that we have seen a number of games decided by a field goal or less between these division rivals over the years. However, noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in games where the line closed at a field goal or less involving these teams this season, I'll confidently lay the points with the visitors here. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Giants plus the points last week against the Commanders but it certainly wasn't easy as they coughed up a late 20-13 lead and ultimately settled for a 20-20 tie. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade New York as it stays home to host the juggernaut Philadelphia Eagles. This is another smash spot for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts as he continues his march to an MVP trophy. The difference this week compared to last Sunday against Tennessee is that Philadelphia should also be able to run the football at will on a G-Men defense that has acted as little more than a swinging-gate against opposing ground games this season. With Philadelphia having shored up its own run defense in recent weeks, it should have little trouble keeping a regressing Giants offense at bay on Sunday afternoon. New York had a few good moments in last week's tie against Washington, but ultimately struggled to put the game away and could do virtually nothing with its overtime drives. Whether RB Saquon Barkley is wearing down or if it's just poor run-blocking on the part of the Giants o-line, there's no question he has regressed considerably. Still technically not out of the woods atop the NFC East, look for the Eagles to lay the hammer down here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not buying the line move here as I'm not convinced it's a monumental downgrade from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Ravens. Jackson has shown flashes of brilliance this season but as a whole, I don't feel he has been as unstoppable or dominant as we've come to expect. He's struggled to connect with his receivers and tight ends on deep passes in particular and while his presence certainly forces the hand of opposing defensive coordinators, I do think Huntley in the starting role bring a different set of challenges as well. Pittsburgh is riding high off consecutive wins but those came against the Colts and Falcons, two opponents that quite simply didn't match up well. It's a different story with the Ravens, and I think we're getting a bargain-basement price to back them in an underdog role here, thanks in large part to the fact they've dropped the cash in three consecutive games heading in. It's hard not to forget that the Ravens went into Pittsburgh without Jackson (RGIII started in his place) in December of 2020, were listed as an 11-point underdog and ultimately gave Pittsburgh all it could handle in a 19-14 loss. Here, I expect John Harbaugh to employ a similar gameplan with the Ravens leaning on their ground attack and defense to effectively shorten proceedings and give themselves a chance. Take Baltimore (8*).

My selection is on Army plus the points over Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Even with a sixth win of the season on Saturday, Army still won't be going Bowling this season which is certainly disappointing. I actually don't mind the situation as it is, however, as there's no added pressure in a game where there's already more than enough in this annual stand-alone affair. Both teams come in hot from an ATS perspective with Navy having reeled off three consecutive ATS victories and Army riding a perfect 5-0 ATS run. What I really like about Army is the way it was able to effectively stamp out opposing passing games over the course of the season. I know what you're thinking, that means little against Navy's triple-option based attack (although the Midshipmen did pass more than usual this season, averaging 11 pass attempts per game). I do think it speaks to the strength in the Army secondary, with those defenders in the second and third level hard-hitters capable of moving up in the box and snuffing out big plays from the Midshipmen's ground game. Offensively, Army surges into this contest having rumbled for 275, 323 and 329 rushing yards over its last three games. The level of opposition it faced over that stretch undoubtedly had something to do with it but it's not as if Navy is a defensive powerhouse. Yes, the Midshipmen allowed just 3.1 yards per rush this season but that's largely due to the fact that teams generally only ran on them in obvious running situations. Instead, we saw Navy's opposition attack it through the air relentlessly, gaining a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Army can sling it a little bit, as it showed in a wild 41-38 loss to UTSA earlier in the season when it completed 13-of-18 passes for over 300 yards. Finally, we'll note that Navy took last year's meeting but hasn't won consecutive matchups with Army since 2014 and 2015. That was the tail-end of a long winning streak in the series that went all the way back to 2001. The previous time Navy won a game over Army (2019), it followed it up with a 15-0 loss the next year (2020). Take Army (8*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*).

My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts just got upset at home against the Steelers on Monday Night Football and I think the knee-jerk reaction from most is to fade them again on a short week on the road against the mighty Cowboys in Dallas. Dallas bettors certainly felt wronged thanks to the Giants 'meaningless' touchdown in the final seconds on Thanksgiving, ultimately giving New York the ATS cover. Keep in mind, Indianapolis had gone a perfect 2-0 ATS in controversial coaching hire's first two games prior to Monday's setback. It's not as if the Colts are bereft of talent and I believe they have the personnel in place to effectively shorten this game - precisely what you want from an underdog side catching double-digits on the road. For the Cowboys, I can't help but feel they've reached a lull in their schedule with this game followed by a home date with the lowly Texans and a trip to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Prior to this, the 'Boys had gone up against the Packers and Vikings on the road and the division-rival Giants on Thanksgiving over a three-game stretch. Noting that Dallas is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 25 points or more in four consecutive games while the Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests off an outright loss as a favorite, we'll confidently back Indy here. Take Indianapolis (8*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As bad as things have gone for the Packers this season, they can take solace in the fact that they're still better than the Bears, and by a wide margin in my opinion. Green Bay draws Chicago in a smash spot here. The Bears might have QB Justin Fields back but how effective he can be remains to be seen. His supporting cast should be downgraded with WR Darnell Mooney now sidelined. The Packers figure to control proceedings from the get-go with an emerging offense led by WR Christian Watson, who is finally evolving into a downfield threat. RB Aaron Jones is in line for a massive bounce-back performance here against a Bears defense that can't stop, or even slow opposing ground attacks since dealing away much of its talent prior to the trade deadline. There haven't been a lot of feel-good moments for Packers fans this season but this will be one of them. Take Green Bay (8*).

AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over USC at 8 pm et on Friday.

USC has every reason to be the more 'motivated' team ahead of this one. After all, it currently resides in the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff picture and will be looking to avenge its lone previous loss this season. Motivation only takes you so far, however, and I'm a believer that it shouldn't really play a role in handicapping as it's rarely lost on the betting marketplace. I'll grab the points with Utah here as it looks to defend its Pac-12 Championship and play as spoiler to USC's national title hopes at the same time. The Utes should be nice and warmed up for this contest after shredding through Colorado by a 63-21 score last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Trojans are coming off a win (and cover) in their annual showdown with Notre Dame - their third consecutive ATS victory. We'll back the better defense while also fading the Heisman Trophy candidate in USC QB Caleb Williams. Here, we'll note that USC is just 37-58 ATS in its last 95 games played away from home off consecutive victories and a woeful 7-18 ATS in its last 25 December games. Take Utah (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I don't know how you can be all that high on the Eagles right now as they enter Sunday's contest off three consecutive ATS losses after narrowly escaping with a 17-16 win in Indianapolis last Sunday. The time to fade the Packers was last Thursday - fresh off a huge come-from-behind upset win over the Cowboys - which we did with the Titans in that game. Now everyone has once again written off Aaron Rodgers and company in a spot where I believe they can give the Eagles all they can handle. Note that Green Bay laid waste to Philadelphia by a 30-16 score the last time they met less than two years ago. In that contest, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception while running five times for 29 yards. Interestingly, TE Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in catches and receiving yards in that game. He's now sidelined, leaving the tight end position to a duo that includes Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Obviously Hurts is a much better quarterback now than he was two years ago. With that being said, I don't believe there's any sort of intimidation factor at play, certainly not after the Commanders and Colts bottled up this Eagles offense over the last two weeks. The Packers are an interesting study in many regards, still boasting plenty of talent on both sides of the football, and perhaps a chip on their shoulder in the 'spoiler' role down the stretch. Take Green Bay (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Yeah, the Rams are going nowhere this season. Everyone knows that. They're also missing most of their key contributors on offense - a unit that is almost unrecognizable at this point. The Chiefs know that as well and off a hard-fought, come-from-behind, last minute victory over the Chargers last week, I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown here. Kansas City doesn't run away and hide on the opposition this season. You could say only two of their games have been true blowouts - a 44-21 win in Arizona way back in Week 1 and a 44-23 rout of the 49ers on October 23rd. Here, they'll be facing a Rams team that has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and they'll do so with their own injury issues. Already thin at the wide receiver position, they're still without Mecole Hardman and now Kadarius Toney is banged-up as well. Note that Kansas City has allowed 17 or more points in all 10 games so far this season so there's little reason to expect it to completely shut down the Rams offense here. I do like Los Angeles' chances of churning out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game on Sunday and that certainly works in our favor catching north of two touchdowns. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While I would prefer to be in on this one at the opener, I still expect the Jets to come away with a double-digit victory, so I'll lay the touchdown on Sunday afternoon in New Jersey. Should Justin Fields end up playing, we'll see this line come down in which case I would elevate this to a 9* play. The potential is there for a 'slingshot effect' when it comes to the Jets offense in this one as they make the switch to Mike White at quarterback in place of an ineffective and mistake-prone Zach Wilson. There are too many gamebreakers on this offense for it to be held back by its quarterback. White isn't going to set the world on fire, but he will do a better job of limiting mistakes and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Keep in mind, New York is coming off a brutal four-game stretch that saw it face the Broncos, Patriots (twice) and Bills defenses so lining up against the Bears down-trodden unit should offer a breath of fresh air. Already struggling in pass defense, Chicago is now down two of its best (relatively-speaking) young corners in Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon. While it may be counter-intuitive to lay this type of number with the Jets, they've actually won a pair of games by 17 and 23 points and half of their six victories have come by at least a touchdown. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Washington Huskies opened the season by winning four straight games ATS, all in a favorite role. Since then, however, they've gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. After scoring a season-high 54 points in last week's rout of the hapless Colorado Buffaloes, we'll fade the Huskies here as they take on a Washington State squad that has shaken off a midseason lull to win three consecutive games and four in a row ATS heading into this rivalry showdown. Finally having found a consistent ground attack, the Cougars are suddenly dangerous offensively, racking up well over 600 rushing yards over the last three games alone. Noting that Washington is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after covering its previous contest as a double-digit favorite, we'll get behind the underdog Cougars here. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Air Force at 9 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has risen from the ashes following a poor 2-3 start to the campaign, winning five of its last six contests to firmly plant itself in the Bowl picture. Both Air Force and San Diego State are in uncharted territory here, riding respective three-game winning streaks. There's no question it's the Aztecs that are playing better football, however, noting that Air Force has gone just 1-3 ATS over its last four contests and 2-5 ATS over its last seven overall. Meanwhile, San Diego State checks in 4-1 ATS over its last five games. You know the saying; good teams win, great teams cover. While I'm not sure we should be crowning this San Diego squad as 'great', I do think it is good enough to hand Air Force a 10th consecutive loss in this series going all the way back to 2010. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Going into Corvallis and coming away with a victory isn't easy. Oregon knows that as it dropped its most recent trip here as a near-two touchdown favorite in 2020. On Saturday, I look for a revenge-minded Beavers squad (after losing last year's matchup by a score of 38-29) to play spoiler against the rival Ducks. Oregon is in a clear letdown spot here off a big win over Utah last week, as it successfully avenged a pair of losses suffered at the hands of the Utes last season, including one in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Noting that the Beavers have gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 lined home games, we'll confidently back them in an underdog role here. Take Oregon State (8*).

My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the set-up for this play as Indiana returns home off an upset win over Michigan State in overtime last week, all but dashing its hopes of Bowl eligibility. It's not as if the Hoosiers had been playing good football - they entered that contest losers of three straight games ATS. Since dropping consecutive games against Wisconsin and Iowa, Purdue has managed to win its last two contests and is now in the position to potentially reach the Big Ten Championship Game with a win after Iowa was upset by Nebraska yesterday. Here, we'll note that Indiana is 0-7 ATS the last seven times it has come off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 18.4 points in that situation. Take Purdue (8*).

My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Hawaii at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a smash spot for San Jose State as it limps home off a pair of tough losses against San Diego State and Utah State. The Spartans have now dropped the cash in five straight games but I'm confident they can turn it around right before Bowl season as they host a hapless Hawaii squad on Saturday. I say Hawaii is hapless but let's at least give it credit for outlasting UNLV at home last week. The Rainbow Warriors actually check in off consecutive ATS victories but I don't believe a third straight is in the cards, noting that they've gone 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played on the road off back-to-back ATS victories. San Jose boasts one of the best run defenses in the conference and should be able to make Hawaii one-dimensional here, ultimately pulling away for a convincing win. Take San Jose State (8*).

My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Fresno State at 10 pm et on Friday.

Wyoming might not be the most exciting team to watch, unless you're a football purist. The Cowboys rarely throw the football, certainly shifting to a more run-centric offensive gameplan as the season has gone on. But they have an outstanding defense, not to mention a ground game that can carry the load offensively. After giving Boise State all it could handle in a three-point defeat (as a 14.5-point underdog) last week, I look for Wyoming to turn in a repeat performance against Fresno State on Friday. The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-14 rout of a disappointing Nevada squad last Saturday and enter this contest riding a six-game winning streak after opening the campaign with four losses in their first five games. I believe there's reason for Fresno State to be on 'upset alert' here, noting that it has been quite pedestrian in run defense this season, yielding 4.5 yards per rush attempt. After turning the football over three times in last week's narrow loss to Boise State, we can anticipate Wyoming going even more conservative here in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings as north of a two-touchdown underdog on the road. Having dropped three straight meetings in this series, including a 17-0 shutout defeat last year, look for the revenge-minded Cowboys to stick around for four quarters on Friday. Take Wyoming (8*).

My selection is on Florida plus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Not a difficult decision to back the Gators in this bounce-back spot off a 31-24 road loss against an improved Vanderbilt squad last week. Florida is just one-game removed from a two-game winning streak that saw it outscore Texas A&M and South Carolina by a 79-30 margin. Meanwhile, Florida State is fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season, hanging 49 points on a weak Louisiana-Lafayette squad last Saturday. I never really like teams scheduling games like that at this late stage of the season as I feel it can throw them off course and result in a 'shock to the system' of sorts the next week (as these late season games tend to be difficult matchups). Entering off four straight ATS victories, I can't help but feel the Seminoles are overvalued here. Take Florida (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

While some feel UCLA could be in for a letdown here off last week's tough 48-45 loss to USC, I don't expect anything of the sort. After all, the Bruins check in off consecutive losses and this serves as a 'get right' matchup against Cal. The Bears are coming off a 27-20 win over Stanford last week. Color me unimpresssed as they failed to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the third quarter in that victory. We successfully faded Cal two weeks back as it fell by a 38-10 score at Oregon State - a game in which it's offense was held out of the end zone for the entire 60 minutes (the Bears only touchdown came on a fumble return). While UCLA has given up a ton of points this season, a lot of that has been game-script related. The Bruins actually match up well here, noting that they've held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season and that's an area where Cal needs to made headway as when it gets pass-happy, it also tends to turn the football over. QB Jack Plummer has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with six interceptions over the last four games and is likely to be under duress most of the game on Friday. Take UCLA (10*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this game sets up for Dallas as it looks to bounce back from a blown opportunity in an overtime loss in Green Bay last week. The Cowboys match up well with the Vikings. We know that as they managed to win right here at U.S. Bank Stadium with Cooper Rush starting his first game on Halloween Night last year. They came through as a 4.5-point underdog in that game. Here, they're being favored (at the time of writing) and it's the right move in my opinion. Minnesota is fresh off a stunning come-from-behind win in Buffalo last Sunday. Keep in mind, that game certainly could have gone either way. The Vikings were the benefactors of a number of breaks or dare I say 'lucky' plays late in that contest. Sometimes you have to be good to be lucky, I know. With that said, the Vikes have only checked in as an underdog twice this season. In the other instance, against another NFC East foe in Philadelphia, they lost by 17 points. While things didn't ultimately go their way last Sunday, the Cowboys are still 2-1 SU and ATS since getting QB Dak Prescott back on the field. Now sitting at 9-1 on the season, the Vikes are going to get everyone's best shot from here on out, and I simply feel Dallas is the superior team in this matchup. Take Dallas (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions suddenly have a good thing going after delivering a home win over the Packers and a come-from-behind road victory over the Bears in consecutive weeks. Now they head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that I still consider a 'paper tiger' even as they sit at an impressive 7-2 nine games into the campaign. Last week was a good spot to back the Giants. They ultimately covered by the narrowest of margins but really had no business winning that game as their offense did virtually nothing while the underdog Texans marched into the red zone time and time again but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I'm not sure New York will be so fortunate. The G-Men have been gashed for 5.4 yards per rush this season with no easy fix in sight. There's certainly a path for the Lions to effectively shorten this game with an offense that's more than capable of staying on the field for extended stretches. Defensively, the Lions have their warts but the Giants offensive ceiling is always capped thanks to its one-dimensional nature. RB Saquon Barkley will get his but at some point in this game, I expect QB Daniel Jones to be called upon to be a difference-maker. I'm not convinced he comes through, noting that New York has totalled fewer than 20 pass completions in four straight games and has topped out at a pitiful 213 passing yards in a game this season. Take Detroit (10*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While things have gone a little sideways for Kentucky following a perfect 4-0 start to the campaign, I'm still a believer in this Wildcats squad and feel they can give undefeated Georgia a run on Saturday afternoon in Lexington. While the Bulldogs remain undefeated on the season at 10-0 and come off consecutive ATS victories as well, it's not as if it's been a completely smooth ride. Georgia has actually turned the football over seven times while forcing only two turnovers over its last three games. Remember, there was a scare on the road against an average Missouri team (the Wildcats beat the Tigers on the road two weeks ago) - a game Georgia won by only four points. The Wildcats suffered an inevitable letdown at home against Vanderbilt last week after it gained Bowl eligibility with a sixth victory the game previous. I'm confident it can pick itself back up here as the Bulldogs are obviously an easy opponent to get up for. Note that Kentucky has yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season and it can run the football (although not as consistently as you'd like to see given its backfield talent). That's to say there's a path for the Wildcats to effectively shorten this game and keep it competitive for four quarters. Note that you would have to go back four games here in Lexington - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time Georgia defeated Kentucky by more than 17 points on this field. The Wildcats defense has matched up fairly well against the Bulldogs in recent years, allowing 'only' 30, 14 and 21 points in the last three meetings in this series. Take Kentucky (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Hurricanes as they look to pick up that all-important sixth win of the season. Of course, it will be an uphill battle trying to win outright as a near-three touchdown underdog but we're not concerned about the outright victory here, only that the Canes can stay competitive for four quarters and I'm confident that they can. Everything mighty Clemson was working toward was essentially trashed in a blowout loss against Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago. Credit the Tigers for bouncing back with a 31-16 home win over Louisville last week but I can't help but feel an empty feeling still remains for these Clemson players. Miami picked up a critical road win at Virginia three games back before suffering an inevitable letdown back at home against Florida State. Yes, the Canes got crushed by the Seminoles but a loss is a loss and they moved on just fine, notching a 35-14 win at Georgia Tech last Saturday. While the Canes no longer have the services of QB Tyler Van Dyke as he's been lost to a shoulder injury, I actually think his replacement Jacurri Brown is a good fit in this offense. He made the big plays when needed and showed that he could do some things with his legs as well, gaining 87 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Quietly, Canes standout WR Xavier Restrepo returned from injury a few games back and has been slowly worked back into the offense. He's capable of making a splash this week in my opinion. With that said, I believe the path to Miami success here against the Tigers involves leaning on its terrific ground attack, not to mention is still-underrated defense. It's not as if Clemson has been blowing the doors off of its opponents this season. The Tigers have topped out at 34 points over their last six games. We've also seen teams move the football on this Clemson defense, stunningly on the ground as the Tigers have been ripped for 206, 124, 263 and 150 rushing yards over their last four contests. The last time these two teams met was in 2020 when Clemson rolled to a 42-17 home victory. The pointspread would seem to indicate Miami hasn't closed the gap at all - in fact, quite the opposite - since that meeting but I believe it has and will show it on the field on Saturday. Take Miami (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 9:45 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up for underdog New Mexico as it looks to play spoiler against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs have saved their season with wins over UNLV and San Jose State over the last two weeks, giving them Bowl eligibility. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown against a seemingly inferior squad here. New Mexico is a woeful 2-8 on the season and wasn't competitive in last Saturday's 31-3 loss to Air Force. The Lobos actually did well defensively to hold the Falcons to just 14 first half points but coming back on a team that can hog the time of possession like Air Force is extremely tough. San Diego State exploded for a 43-27 come-from-behind win over San Jose State last week. It seemed as if the Spartans thought it was going to be a cakewalk after two early touchdowns but the Aztecs took the ensuing kickoff (following the second TD) to the house to turn the tide. QB Jalen Mayden has been San Diego State's offense since taking over but this will be the Aztecs first road test since falling by a 32-28 score at Fresno State on October 29th. In a game that features an exceptionally low posted total, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the home underdog will be worth our while. Take New Mexico (10*).

My selection is on Tennessee first half plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While all bets are off should the Packers fall behind early and enter true 'desperation mode' in the second half of this game, I believe the Titans are worthy of our support catching points in the game's first 30 minutes on Thursday. Note that Tennessee is 6-1 ATS against the first half line over its last seven games with the lone setback coming at home against Denver last Sunday. Even two weeks ago, without QB Ryan Tannehill in a primetime game in Kansas City we saw the Titans carry a 14-9 lead into halftime. In fact, they've led at halftime in each of their last four road games, with the lone exception this season being a disastrous Week 1 affair in Buffalo. Nothing has come easy for the Packers this season and I'm not anticipating anything different on Thursday. Green Bay did cash for first half bettors last Sunday against Dallas, but only went into the break tied (it was a rare home underdog in that contest). You would have to go back four games overall, not to mention four games here at home, to find the last time the Packers led a game at halftime. There's certainly a path for the Titans to control proceedings early with RB Derrick Henry in a monster bounce-back spot after getting held in check by the Broncos last Sunday. Green Bay checks in allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush this season and is severely banged-up on the defensive side of the football right now. Take Tennessee first half (8*).

My selection is on Tulane minus the points over SMU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Year in, year out, bettors flock to the SMU Mustangs thanks to their high-flying offense. Fresh off three consecutive SU wins and four in a row ATS that's not likely to change as the Mustangs stay on the road for a second game in six days, facing upstart Tulane on Thursday. The Green Wave are 8-2 on the campaign but enter this game off a 38-31 loss as a short favorite at home against Central Florida on Saturday. There was really no shame in that defeat as the Knights are a terrific team, arguably better than the SMU squad they'll face on Thursday. While the difference between the two offenses in this game is negligible in my opinion, I believe Tulane is the far better defensive team. After giving up 38 points in Saturday's loss the Green Wave will obviously be in a less-than-forgiving mood on Thursday, hungry to end a seven-game losing streak in this series. I'll lay the short number with the home side. Take Tulane (8*).

My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Ohio is rolling right now, winning five consecutive games SU and six in a row ATS. The Bobcats offense has been outstanding, but I'm willing to back the better defense in a home underdog role, not to mention the fact that Ball State can become Bowl eligible with a victory (the Cardinals will wrap up the regular season with a road game against Miami-Ohio). Ball State not surprisingly suffered a letdown last week at Toledo after winning outright in an underdog role at Kent State the week previous. As I mentioned, the Cardinals can play some defense, allowing 4.2 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season. In stark contrast, Ohio has yielded 4.4 yards per rush (with that number rising to 5.0 on the road) and 8.4 yards per pass play. There's a path for the Cardinals to effectively shorten this game and keep the red hot Ohio offense off the field as Ball State boasts one of the best running backs in the MAC this season in Carson Steele. He's gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for a whopping 390 yards while delivering four touchdowns in the last two games alone. The only two occasions where Steele didn't rush for over 100 yards this season came in a blowout loss at Tennessee (in which he had only 11 rush attempts) and a 44-38 win over Northern Illinois in which he found the end zone three times. Here, we'll note that Ohio is a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games after consecutive double-digit wins in-conference, as is the case here. Take Ball State (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

One thing we know when it comes to the Commanders (or the Football Team as I still prefer to call them) is they love to play for their quarterback Taylor Heinecke. The same goes for head coach Ron Rivera - the very definition of a 'player's coach'. While it's been another trying season in Washington, winning only four of nine games to date, this team continues to play competitive football, going 2-0-1 ATS since Heinecke took over for an ineffective Carson Wentz. The first matchup between these two teams was no contest as the Eagles rolled to a 24-8 victory in Washington. I did like the way the Commanders defense played in that contest, however, and really all season long, only allowing more than 25 points on one occasion. You would have to go back six games to find the last time they gave up more than 21 points. Needless to say that's worth noting given the lofty pointspread here. Philadelphia is in danger of coming out a little sleepy here in my opinion, still undefeated on the season and having not played since a week ago Thursday, when it was never really challenged in a 29-17 win in Houston. Note that the Eagles took last year's meeting between these two teams here in Philadelphia by 'only' 10 points. I say 'only' because Washington couldn't have played much worse in that game, gaining only 63 rushing yards on 21 attempts while completing 20-of-31 passes for 174 yards. The Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards and 281 passing yards in that contest. Again, they won by only 10 points. I'm confident the revenge-minded Commanders can close the gap in many regards on Monday and ultimately give the Eagles a bit of a scare at the very least. Only twice in the last three seasons have we seen the Eagles come off five or six ATS wins in their last seven games and on both occasions they failed to cover the spread in their next game. That's the situation here and I look for the Commanders to stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Washington (10*).

SNF Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

While the Chargers inexplicably enter this game with the superior overall record to that of the 49ers, I don't believe they're the better team, at least not given all of the injury blows they've been dealt. The Niners have had their share of key injuries as well but their depth has shone through and they're off their bye week on Sunday, set up in a smash spot offensively. I say this is a smash spot because the Chargers have been horrid against the run, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush. Needless to say, the Niners can run the football as well as any team in the league, especially with RB Christian McCaffrey even more acclimated with the offense off the bye. I'm also convinced the Niners can get creative with their passing attack in this matchup as well. We've seen the Chargers frustratingly stray away at times from their best all-around offensive player, RB Austin Ekeler, at least in terms of their ground attack. Playing from behind doesn't suit this team particularly well missing its top two receiving threats in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even against an injury-plagued Falcons defense last Sunday, the Chargers were only able to muster 20 points on 245 passing yards (those came on 43 pass attempts). Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Indianapolis at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not sure that any team has more pent up frustration than the Raiders entering this week's 'get right' matchup with the spiralling Colts at Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas blew another game in Jacksonville last Sunday, jumping ahead early before going stagnant offensively in the second half in an eventual 27-20 loss. The good news is, this week's opponent is far worse off, as hard as that is to believe. The Colts named Jeff Saturday head coach in a move straight out of left field earlier in the week. While some will buy into Saturday's 'ra-ra, can-do' attitude, I'm not buying it. The talent isn't there on either side of the football but particularly on offense with Sam Ehlinger starting in place of an ineffective Matt Ryan. Ehlinger couldn't have been any worse in last week's road loss against the Patriots. While RB Jonathan Taylor is back this week, there's nothing special about his matchup as the Raiders are capable of containing opposing running backs. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels likely isn't long for the job - called out yet again after last week's seemingly clueless play-calling against the Jaguars. With that being said, I do think the Raiders rise to the occasion as a team, knowing that they won't be back home again until December 4th. The potential is still there with this team, as we saw in an earlier three-game stretch that saw them win and cover at home against the Broncos and Texans and nearly upset the Chiefs (in a one-point loss) on Monday Night Football in Kansas City. Take Las Vegas (8*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns seem like they're always good for one stunner of an upset road win each season and I think this could be it on Sunday in Miami. We successfully faded the Dolphins last Sunday as they won but didn't cover against the Bears in Chicago. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well again as I feel the Browns match up well in a number of areas. There's still time for a bit of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland in advance of Deshaun Watson's impending return to the field in Week 13. I haven't always been high on QB Jacoby Brissett but he did win me over when he last took the field with the Browns in their impressive Monday night win over division-rival Cincinnati two weeks ago. The bye week helped Cleveland get healthier with RG Wyatt Teller among those returning for this week's game - giving a boost to an already terrific Browns ground attack. On the defensive side of the football, Cleveland is expected to have CB Denzel Ward back. While the Browns don't have anyone capable of neutralizing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, even if he does go off (again) there's no guarantee Miami can score enough, or make enough stops on defense to secure the cover. The Miami defense continues to play on without three key pass stoppers in corners Byron Jones and Nik Needham and safety Brandon Jones. Xavien Howard has been able to stay in the lineup but he's dealt with injuries to both groins all season long. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 6-21 ATS in its last 27 home games coming off a win by three points or less, outscored by 4.4 points on average in that situation. Take Cleveland (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 9 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for Oregon State as it returns to Corvallis with an extra day of preparation time following last Friday's tough 24-21 loss at Washington. We won with the 'under' in that narrow defeat at the hands of the Huskies in Seattle but won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Beavers here. California checks in off a spirited 41-35 loss at rival USC. The Bears were obviously up for that showdown, turning in one of their best performances of the season, albeit in a losing effort. I question whether Cal gets back up to the same level for this one, noting that it enters on the heels of five straight losses, with its season effectively circling the drain with slim hopes of gaining Bowl eligibility (it needs to win its final three games). Note that Cal is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS victory while Oregon State has reeled off 10 consecutive ATS victories here at home. Take Oregon State (10*).

Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'over' in Purdue's ugly home loss against Iowa last Saturday as the Boilermakers couldn't get anything going offensively in an eventual 24-3 loss. Plenty of bettors got burned with Purdue as a home favorite in that spot and will want no part of the Boilers as they hit the road to face Illinois here. That's precisely what makes Purdue so attractive as we catch a generous helping of points in a stadium where the Boilers haven't lost since way back in 2010. Illinois is in bounce-back mode as well following a stunning home loss against Michigan State last week. While there have been some dominant defensive performances along the way, I think there have also been some 'smoke and mirrors' involved in the Illini's impressive 7-2 start to the campaign. For Purdue, it's getting down to crunch time as it looks again to gain Bowl eligibility with that elusive sixth win following back-to-back losses against Wisconsin and Iowa, as mentioned. Note that Purdue checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Illinois is a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Purdue (10*).

My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Fresno State has won four straight meetings in this series - its longest winning streak all-time since the first matchup between these two squads back in 1996. I look for the Runnin' Rebels to give the Bulldogs all they can handle on Friday, however, as UNLV looks to make a final push toward a Bowl game. To earn Bowl eligibility, the Rebels need two wins in their final three games. While that looks manageable on paper, a win here would all but assure it of a spot with games against Hawaii and Nevada remaining. We won with the Rebels plus the points against San Diego State last Saturday. In that game, UNLV welcomed back its starting quarterback and running back and effectively shortened the game, leaning on its defense to stay competitive and ultimately earn the cover (which I realize meant nothing to the players in the grand scheme of things). It was a solid effort that should provide some confidence as it tries to finally snap its four-game skid here against Fresno State. The Bulldogs got off to an awful start this season but have since reeled off four straight victories and need just one more win to become Bowl eligible. They scored 55 points in a rout of lowly Hawaii last week but that doesn't change the fact that it's been a struggle for the most part offensively, even with QB Jake Haener healthy, as he was last week. Keep in mind, just two games back they forced five turnovers against aforementioned San Diego State but still needed all of the offense they could muster in a 32-28 win. The fact that they allowed 28 points against a punchless, dare I say broken Aztecs offense was telling. Here, we'll note that Fresno State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 31+ points in consecutive contests heading in. Meanwhile, UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when coming off a SU road loss but ATS cover, as is the case here. Take UNLV (8*).

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over Cincinnati at 8 pm et on Friday.

Cincinnati has taken five straight meetings in this series and you would have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time East Carolina won a road game against the Bearcats. With that being said, I believe the Pirates have as good a shot at staging an upset as they have in years on Friday night as they look to pull even with the Bearcats at 7-3 overall. While Cincinnati was battling it out in a taxing 20-10 home win over Navy this past Saturday, East Carolina was home and cool on its bye week following three consecutive victories, culminating with a 27-24 road upset win over BYU the Friday previous (we won with the 'under' in that game). While known for their offensive prowess, the Pirates can play some defense as well, as we saw down the stretch in that critical win over the Cougars in hostile territory. This isn't the same Cincinnati squad we've seen in years' past as there's no Desmond Ridder to lean on at quarterback and it has shown as the Bearcats have topped out at 29 points over their last four games, failing to reach 300 passing yards in any of their last five contests. That's fine if the running game is rolling but that's not the case with Cincinnati right now as it has gained just 95 yards on 37 rush attempts over the last two games. I like ECU's chances of orchestrating long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Friday. Note that the Pirates check in 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog while Cincinnati is a woeful 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests after committing one or less turnovers in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take East Carolina (8*).

AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

There was reason to be optimistic about Memphis' Bowl chances entering the 2022 campaign. The Tigers opened with a tough matchup on the road against Mississippi State but from there, reeled off four straight wins and certainly appeared to be in the driver's seat in the AAC. Since then, however, the Tigers haven't gotten any breaks on their way to four consecutive losses. I'm not ready to write off Memphis just yet. Of those four losses, only two came by more than two points and none by more than 10 points with the Tigers putting up 28+ points themselves in all four contests. They face an uphill battle needing two wins in their final three games to gain Bowl eligibility but there's certainly a path to get there. It has to start with a win over Tulsa on Thursday. This has been a fairly disastrous season for the Golden Hurricane, due in part to an injury to QB Davis Brin. Even if Brin is good to go for this game, there's no guarantee Tulsa will be able to put enough points on the board to stay in contention for four quarters. Last week's two-touchdown defeat at home against Tulane illustrated how the season has gone for Tulsa as it failed to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half - after the Green Wave had already jumped ahead 17-3. It never found the end zone again after that late first half score. Keep in mind, this is a Golden Hurricane squad that at one point gave up four touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch against Navy and it's methodical triple-option attack earlier this season. They'll certainly have their hands full with Memphis' offense which is led by a baller in QB Seth Henigan. Tulsa has a good one in WR Keylon Stokes but I expect Memphis to give him plenty of attention in this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane will be trying to win consecutive meetings in this series for the first time since reeling off four straight wins over Memphis from 2005 to 2010. The two teams have met seven times since then with Memphis going 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in this series over that stretch, with those two victories coming by scores of 40-20 and 41-14. Take Memphis (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this spot sets up for the Redhawks as they come off their bye week knowing they need two victories in their final three games to earn Bowl eligibility. Anything other than a Bowl appearance would be a disappointment after they not only reached one but defeated North Texas in that contest last December. Miami-Ohio's offense hasn't put up the same numbers it did a year ago although it's worth noting that unit didn't really get rolling until November. Ohio has reeled off four straight victories, making it six on the season so it has already gained Bowl eligibility. I didn't come away overly impressed despite the lopsided nature of its 45-24 win over Buffalo last week. The Bulls offered very little defensive resistance in that game but I expect Miami-Ohio to provide a much more difficult challenge in that regard here. I mentioned that the Redhawks offense didn't really get rolling until November last season. That's been par for the course as Miami-Ohio checks in 77-51 ATS in its last 128 games played in the second half of the season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 points along the way. Here, the Redhawks will be playing with revenge after dropping a tough 35-33 decision on the road against Ohio last year. They were actually shut out in the entire first half in that game and couldn't find any semblance of a ground game, but still hung in there and lost by 'only' two points. Note that the underdog has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series (last year Ohio was a +7 home underdog). Here, we'll also note that the Bobcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite while Miami-Ohio checks in a profitable 5-3 ATS in its last eight games after losing two of its last three contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Miami-Ohio (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*).

Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has been fairly high on my fade list this season and I see this as another fine opportunity to do so as the Aztecs face UNLV on Saturday. The Runnin' Rebels are licking their wounds on the heels of three straight losses following a 4-1 start to the campaign. Injuries have had something to do with their slide but the guys that are healthy need to start showing up and I'm confident they will off the bye week. If ever there was a perfect example of how far the Aztecs have fallen it wast last week's fall-from-ahead loss against Fresno State. San Diego State teams of the past would have had no trouble putting that game away with a 28-10 late in the third quarter. But this year's Aztecs squad can't run the football and control the clock the way previous editions have been able to. It seems that the more QB Jalen Mayden is asked to do the more trouble he gets into. With that being said, Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister certainly wasn't the answer under center either. All told, this is a San Diego State team that struggles to do the little things well, including playing fundamentally-sound defense and I expect the Rebels to take advantage here, even with QB Doug Brumfield still sidelined with a concussion. Keep in mind, Cam Friel was last year's top passer for the team while Harrison Bailey is a Tennessee transfer that most thought would be the starter this year heading into the season. With an extra week of practice I do think we'll see a sharper performance from the UNLV offense here. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on Louisiana plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday.

Troy enters this game on the heels of five straight victories but I look for the Trojans to get tripped up on Saturday afternoon. We missed with Louisiana last week as the Ragin' Cajuns got off to a dreadful start on the road against Southern Miss and could never recover, even though they did put up a fight in the second half, ultimately closing the gap (to a certain extent) late. When we last saw Louisiana here at home it routed Arkansas State by a 38-18 score two games back. That marked the team's third straight ATS victory. Troy has an incredible defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Trojans have manhandled opposing ground attacks but the Ragin' Cajuns have been rolling the ball downhill in that regard, running for 174, 109, 206 and 103 yards over their last four games, with the two higher totals coming here at home. Here, we'll note that Troy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine games following a win in conference play. Louisiana has cashed ATS each of the last three times it has come off a loss in-conference, which is the situation here. Take Louisiana (8*).

My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Friday.

While Duke was celebrating an eight-turnover fuelled upset victory in Miami last Saturday, Boston College was lamenting another missed opportunity as it turned the football over five times in an upset loss at UConn - its first ever defeat at the hands of the Huskies. Here, I do look for the Eagles to show some pride and give the Blue Devils a fight. Note that grabbing the points has been a fruitful venture in this series, with the underdog cashing at a 4-1 ATS clip in five all-time meetings going back to 2006. That's not surprising given the low-scoring nature of this series with none of those contests totalling more than 39 points. Here, we're catching double-digits with the Eagles, noting that Duke is a woeful 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games after posting a win by 10+ points against a conference opponent in its previous contest, as is the case here. Regardless whether QB Phil Jurkovec can go for the Eagles (he's struggled this season anyway), we'll grab the generous helping of points with the home side here. Take Boston College (8*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Tough spot for the Giants here as they stay on the road for a second straight week and travel across the country to face the upstart Seahawks. I expect this to be a Kenneth Walker game for the Seahawks as he faces a Giants run defense (I use that term loosely) that has been torched for north of 5.7 yards per rush this season. It sounds like Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf will be good to go after suffering a knee injury last Sunday. While Tyler Lockett missed practice during the week, all indications are that he'll play and start as well. He didn't look any worse for wear in last week's rout of the Chargers. Defensively, Seattle remains a bottom-tier unit albeit with some improvement in recent weeks. Regardless, the presence of Daniel Jones always tends to keep a cap on the G-Men offense, even with RB Saquon Barkley running as well as he has at any point in his career. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll back the Patriots as they look to bounce back following an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Bears on Monday Night Football. What better opponent to get right back up for than the division rival Jets on Sunday. New York is coming off a big win in Denver last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Broncos were undermanned in that game, starting career backup QB Brett Rypien. The Jets struggled to move the football outside of a big run from now-injured rookie RB Breece Hall on a Broncos defense breakdown. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Patriots play fundamentally sound defense while not putting too much in the lap of QB Mac Jones (or Bailey Zappe should he take over at some point). Note that the Pats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games when coming off an outright double-digit loss as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points on average in that situation. Take New England (8*).

Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I see this as a smash spot for the Lions, particularly on offense, as they check in starved for a positive outcome following four consecutive losses including back-to-back road losses against the Patriots and Cowboys in which they scored a grand total of six points. Something has to give in this matchup as the Dolphins enter riding an 0-4 ATS skid while the Lions have dropped the cash in three consecutive games. The Fins will be out of their element playing in a domed environment, noting that they'll be looking forward to flipping the calendar page having gone a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight October games. There were certainly a lot of positives for Miami to take away from last Sunday night's 16-10 victory over the Steelers. However, I didn't like the way their offense stagnated and I did feel their secondary and defense as a whole looked vulnerable, missing a number of key parts and suffering yet another injury blow with strong safety Brandon Jones tearing his ACL. Keep in mind, this was already a defense that was without Xavien Howard's running mate, Byron Jones and slot corner Nik Needham. Howard could be left on an island in this one and he's been dealing with nagging groin and quad injuries all season long (he missed practice to start the week once again). While the Lions did lose WR Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols in last week's game against Dallas, all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one as he didn't actually get diagnosed with a concussion (the league's new protocols dictated that he leave the game and not return). Speaking of returning players, Detroit should have RB De'Andre Swift back for the first time in a long time after he was a somewhat surprising scratch last week. The Lions wanted to give him one more week to recover but after he was a full participant in practice to start the week, he should be back on the field for Sunday's game. That's good news as the Dolphins have had a difficult time defending pass-catching running backs like Swift (and Jamaal Williams) this season. I see this as a breakout spot for a Lions offense that is starving for such an opportunity given the way they've lagged in recent games. Remember, this was one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first month of the season. Here, we'll note that Detroit has gone an exceptional 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following consecutive losses by 14+ points, as is the case here. Take Detroit (10*).

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers were written off by most following the trade of Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the firing of head coach Matt Rhule (I would actually consider that move to be addition by subtraction). Rather than hang their heads, the Panthers came out with something to prove last Sunday, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory came at home. Now they hit the road to face the upstart Falcons in Atlanta. I'm not convinced this matchup is quite as daunting as it may seem for the visitors. Carolina will be looking to secure a third straight win and cover here in Atlanta after outlasting the Falcons by a 19-13 score on the road last season. Atlanta is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and will sorely miss its two two corners in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward in this one. Panthers QB P.J. Walker was given a vote of confidence from the team this week, named the starter despite Baker Mayfield apparently being healthy enough to return (he'll be in a backup role here). The run-first nature of the Falcons plays into the hands of the team catching points, eating up valuable clock most weeks. Last Sunday, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes despite game script leading you to believe it should be bombing away, trailing by a considerable margin all afternoon long in Cincinnati. I expect the Falcons to stick to the script here, even against a Panthers defense that has been relatively stout against the run, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush on the road this season. Carolina finally got its ground game going in last week's win and I expect some carry-over here, noting that Atlanta has been ripped for 5.4 yards per rush at home this season. Look for the Panthers to churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game - that gives them their best chance of securing a second straight victory in my opinion. Take Carolina (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Credit Stanford for turning its season around with consecutive wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. The Cardinal were circling the drain off to a 1-4 start prior to that, with their lone win having come against FCS squad Colgate. I think their run ends here, however, as they head to Westwood to face a UCLA squad that should be in a foul mood off a 45-30 loss at Oregon last week (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Stanford defense has held up well over the last two games but those were favorable matchups, unlike this one. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw the Cardinal allow three Oregon State touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, at home no less, nearly coughing up a 24-10 lead. The week previous to that there was a stretch where they allowed three Oregon touchdowns in just over four minutes of action. There were also poor performances against USC and Washington. In that same vein, I look for the Bruins offense to go off in this matchup. UCLA had no defensive answers for Oregon in Eugene last Saturday but few teams do these days. This is about as close to the electric Ducks offense of yesteryear that we've seen in quite some time. Here, the Bruins should benefit from facing a pocket-passer of a QB in Tanner McKee. You would have to go back three games to find the last time he threw a touchdown pass and he's no threat to run, gaining positive yardage on the ground just once all season (he gained five yards on two attempts against Oregon State). Note that UCLA checks in an incredible 10-1 ATS when coming off three straight games allowing 31+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, despite the victory last week, Stanford is still just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against Pac-12 opponents. Take UCLA (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Louisiana is absolutely playing its best football of the season right now and I think Southern Miss is ripe for the picking off consecutive wins - matching its longest winning streak of the season. The Ragin' Cajuns were overvalued early in the season, there's no question about that. They were favored by 11.5 and 9.5 points in their first two road games against Rice and Louisiana-Monroe and lost both contests outright. They followed up those two road defeats with another narrow home loss against South Alabama. The turnaround started two weeks ago, when the Ragin' Cajuns went on the road and upset Marshall by double-digits (as a double-digit underdog). From there, Louisiana routed Arkansas State 38-18 on Saturday. An injury to QB Chandler Fields has actually settled the situation under center with Ben Wooldridge taking over full-time. Keep in mind, the Ragin' Cajuns had been going with a two-man QB rotation, to mixed results. Suddenly Wooldridge has thrown for 546 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two games. Over its last six quarters of action, Louisiana has had a 16-minute stretch where it put together four scoring drives against Marshall and scored four offensive touchdowns in a 13-minute stretch against Arkansas State. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns defense, which was poised to be one of the best units in the Sun Belt Conference entering the season but got off to a sluggish start, has also come around. Louisiana has completely stamped out opposing passing games over the last month, yielding just 61-of-121 passing. The Ragin' Cajuns defense, which has forced 17 turnovers this season, has to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of facing a Southern Miss offense that has coughed the football up nine times over the last three games. The Golden Eagles offense continues to struggle, even though the team has won consecutive games. They scored exactly 20 points in each of those victories. QB Zach Wilcke has struggled now that there's plenty of tape out there on him - he's thrown more than one touchdown pass only once this season while tossing seven interceptions over the last three games. Unlike Louisiana QB Wooldridge, Wilcke is fairly limited in terms of his running ability. RB Frank Gore Jr. is terrific but should the Golden Eagles fall behind as I expect here, it could be tough sledding for the dynamic back due to game script alone. Here, we'll note that Louisiana is a long-term 65-43 ATS when playing on the road from October on. Take Louisiana (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Bears have had but one truly favorable offensive matchup this season - that coming two games back in Minnesota (we won with the 'over' in that contest) and I suppose you could say they took advantage, scoring 22 points, albeit on just 271 total yards. Outside of that, the Chicago offense has been rather unimaginative and certainly unproductive and I expect that to continue on Monday as it draws a poor matchup against a still-underrated Patriots defense. New England has absolutely erased the majority of the passing games it has faced this season, limiting each of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer pass completions (only its first opponent this season - Miami - topped that mark with 23). Teams that have elected to stick with the run against the Patriots have had moderate success in terms of yardage gained, but not to much in terms of reaching the end zone. I like the Bears offense far better when they have a clear lead back but that's not the case right now with David Montgomery healthy. If anything, Montgomery's health is holding back incumbent Khalil Herbert who has looked like the more explosive RB. The Patriots are expected to have both QB Mac Jones and RB Damien Harris back on offense. While RB Rhamondre Stevenson has performed well, it certainly doesn't hurt getting Harris back as he's proven to have a real nose for the end zone over the course of his career. There are certainly Mac Jones doubters out there, especially given how well Bailey Zappe has performed in his absence, but I think he does just fine here, serving little more than a 'game manager' role noting that the Bears have been lit up by opposing ground games, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. While we usually look to fade teams coming off ATS winning streaks, the Pats don't appear to qualify as they've gone an incredible 47-29 ATS in their last 76 games following three straight ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Chicago checks in 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games in an underdog role, outscored by 9.2 points on average in that spot. Take New England (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

NOTE: Russell Wilson has been ruled out for the Broncos. Brett Rypien will start in his place. I'll stick with the play as I'm not sure that Rypien's presence changes what Denver will be looking to do and that's churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense while leaving the rest in the hands of its capable defense.

Everyone is down on the Broncos right now while the Jets, perhaps along with the Giants, are the NFL's 'flavor of the month'. We actually won with the Jets last week in their outright blowout win in Green Bay. I loved the way that spot set up for Gang Green but I think it's a much different story this week as they stay on the road for a second straight game to face the down-trodden Broncos in Denver. With New York suddenly 4-2 on the season, just one game back of first place in the AFC East, this becomes a clear look-ahead spot as its next three games will come at home against New England and Buffalo, followed by a bye week and then a quick road rematch against the Patriots. I still feel this Jets squad has some warts. QB Zach Wilson has generally been awful since taking over the reins under center, completing just 42-of-75 passes for 572 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, rookie RB Breece Hall has been outstanding but much of his success has been game-script dependent with the Jets holding sizable leads most of the way in each of the last two games. Prior to two weeks ago against Miami, New York had topped out at 98 rushing yards in a game this season. The Broncos, while clearly struggling, do still have at least a couple of redeeming qualities. Their defense remains stout. You don't hold the Chargers offense to 73 rushing yards and 224 passing yards (on 57 pass attempts) by fluke. Patrick Surtain would get my vote as the best cornerback in the NFL. Brandon Browning has been a massive find as a pass rusher on the outside. While it could certainly use some help from the offense, this is a defense capable of winning this game all on its own (note that the Broncos manhandled the Jets by a 26-0 score here in Denver in last year's meeting). While QB Russell Wilson hasn't been good by any stretch of the imagination, the Broncos play-calling has left a lot to be desired as well. They got way too predictable as the game went on in Los Angeles on Monday. I do think there were lessons to be gleaned from that narrow defeat and we'll see Denver employ a more aggressive offensive gameplan against a beatable Jets defense here. New York is certainly 'feeling itself' off last week's statement win in Green Bay (if you watched rookie Sauce Gardner's postgame interview you know what I mean). However, with young teams sometimes the highs are a little too high and I expect it to be brought back to Earth on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Jets are a woeful 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games following three consecutive victories, outscored by 8.7 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in 28-12 the last 40 times they've played at home off a road loss against a division opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over West Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Off consecutive road losses against Kansas State and Oklahoma State and following its bye week, it's 'put up or shut up' time for Texas Tech. I fully expect to see the Red Raiders rise to the occasion against West Virginia, which checks in off a massive weeknight win over Baylor last week. That Mountaineers win over the Bears essentially turned on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown as Baylor was driving to potentially go ahead 24-10 late in the first half. After scoring a touchdown less than five minutes into the first quarter, the Mountaineers didn't reach the end zone again on offense until nearly five minutes into the third quarter. There's no real shame in either of Texas Tech's last two defeats. Poor first quarters essentially doomed the Red Raiders in those two contests. I do feel the extra week of preparation between games should serve to help Texas Tech clean up some of its recent issues. The Red Raiders have looked like a different team in Lubbock compared to on the road, going a perfect 3-0 including an impressive win over Texas the last time we saw them take this field. Here, we'll note that West Virginia is a woeful 13-33 ATS in its last 46 games after winning three of its previous four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 46-26 ATS in its last 72 home games off a loss, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.5 points in that spot. Take Texas Tech (8*).

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Rice at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, Louisiana has traditionally been a house of horrors for visiting teams. Rice knows that as it has dropped four straight trips here, never coming within fewer than 15 points of the Bulldogs over that stretch. While this year's Owls squad has held its own, and then some, reeling off five consecutive ATS wins entering Saturday's contest, I look for it to fall short here. Last week, Rice could only muster 14 points in a field goal loss on the road against a very average Florida Atlantic defense. The Owls offense has certainly shown some regression as the schedule has toughened up - their two highest-scoring games of the season to date came back in Weeks 2 and 3 against the likes of FCS squad McNeese State and Louisiana-Lafayette. For Louisiana Tech, this is obviously a big game in terms of its potential Bowl hopes as it enters with just two victories and looking ahead at the schedule, will have only a few more legitimate opportunities to pick up wins and approach that six-victory mark. There have been positives to take away from the Bulldogs 2-4 start to the campaign. Back in mid-September Louisiana Tech travelled to Death Valley to face Clemson and stuck around for the entire first half, trailing just 13-6. Clemson took over in the third quarter but the Bulldogs again showed plenty of fight in the fourth quarter, scoring a pair of touchdowns to close the gap to 14 points before giving up a couple of scores late. Even last week at North Texas, Louisiana Tech fell behind 21-3 early but rallied to close the gap to a single touchdown entering the fourth quarter. My point being, there have been times where the Bulldogs could have folded the tent but instead reached down and showed some resiliency. I'm not convinced they'll have to be all that resilient in this particular matchup as I believe they can control proceedings. While the Bulldogs have been gashed by opposing ground games, I'm not sure that Rice has the backfield to take full advantage. Note that the Owls check in averaging just 127 rush yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush. Rice has had a tendency to look gassed following games I would term 'defensive slugfests', noting that it has gone a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 contests following a game in which both teams scored 17 points or less, as is the case here, outscored by a whopping margin of 22.0 points on average in that situation. From October on, Louisiana Tech has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.4 points in its last 69 games played here in Ruston. While the Bulldogs have had a tough run going back to last season, they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS losses this season and have been outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average when coming off an ATS defeat since the start of last season (nine-game sample size). Take Louisiana Tech (10*).

My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

We successfully faded the Broncos last week as they lost outright as a short home favorite against the Colts. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as Denver hits the road for a critical matchup against the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Bolts come off consecutive road wins over Houston and Cleveland but neither performance was all that impressive. While loaded with talent, the Chargers defense has been anything but dominant this season. They've been torched for more than 6.0 yards per rush while only three other teams have given up more touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. I believe that opens the door for a Broncos offense that has had a few extra days to perhaps sort out its issues following that embarrassing performance against the Colts. There's no question Denver has the personnel in place to perform much better than it has offensively, particularly at the wide receiver position. Defensively, the Broncos have been stout, particularly against the pass. While the Chargers could probably gain plenty of traction running the football in this one, the temptation always seems strong to put the game in the hands of QB Justin Herbert rather than leaning to heavily on their ground attack. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles has allowed 31.9 points per game while being outscored by an average margin of 2.7 points when coming off consecutive games in which it scored 25+ points, as is the case here. As poorly as things have gone for the Broncos at times, they've still allowed just 18.3 points per game and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points going back to the start of last season. Take Denver (8*).

SNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Cowboys last Sunday as they pulled off another upset win, this time on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade Dallas as it plays on the road for a second straight week. QB Cooper Rush has been terrific in a 'game manager' role over the last four games, but game script has certainly favored the Cowboys as they've led most of the way in those contests. I expect a different story to unfold in Philadelphia on Sunday night as Rush is asked to do a little too much and upending the undefeated Eagles proves to be a bridge too far for the Cowboys. I came close to fading the Eagles last Sunday in Arizona as I absolutely hated the spot for Philadelphia, travelling across the country to face a Cardinals squad that would be easy to overlook. Right on cue, the Cards gave the Eagles all they could handle, ultimately missing a late field goal that would have tied the game. Here, I look for the Eagles to refocus and benefit from getting virtually their entire offensive line back healthy after being undermanned in that department last week. This really is an 'anything you can do, I can do better' type of matchup for the Eagles against a Cowboys squad that has admittedly played well. While Dallas would certainly like to effectively shorten this game by churning out long, clock-eating drives on offense, the Eagles defense is capable of snuffing out the run while also locking down the Cowboys receivers. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will be able to orchestrate enough of those long drives to keep its defense fresh against a multi-dimensional Eagles offense here. You can be sure Philadelphia hasn't forgotten about last season, when it got drilled in both matchups against Dallas, allowing 40+ points in each game. Look for the Eagles to get their payback here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Bucs in last week's game as they left the back door wide open after building a three-touchdown lead against the Falcons. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate here as Tampa Bay is well-positioned to blow the doors off a reeling Steelers squad. There was some optimism in Pittsburgh entering the season but that has been all but dashed following a 1-4 start. Missing a host of key players on defense, the Steelers just don't have the personnel in place to slow Tom Brady and the Bucs steadily-improving offense here. After clearly taking its foot off the gas in the second half against Atlanta last week, and nearly paying the price, I look for Tampa to lay the hammer down here. Defensively, the Bucs are also in a smash spot against a Steelers offense that is quickly turning the page over to the future with QB Kenny Pickett starting at quarterback and rookie RB Jaylen Warren starting to usurp Najee Harris in the backfield. Pickett hasn't shown any sort of rapport with his receiving corps, perhaps with the exception of fellow rookie WR George Pickens. I don't think the absence of TE Pat Freiermuth can be overlooked here either as he's a big part of what the Steelers like to do in the red zone, not to mention a key blocker, noting that Pittsburgh's pass and run blocking is among the worst in the entire NFL. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As I mentioned last week, making the decision to bet for or against the Jaguars when they play at home isn't rocket science. You back them when they host the Colts and fade them against everyone else. That strategy worked to perfection once again last Sunday as they fell as a considerable favorite at home against the Texans. Here, we find the Jags back on the road, where they're just 1-2 so far this season but their two losses were competitive affairs against the Commanders and still-undefeated Eagles. Of course, the Jags already have a win over these Colts to their credit. We successfully backed Jacksonville in its 24-0 stomping of Indy back in Week 2. In fact, we've been involved in all five Colts games this season in some shape or form, including two of the last three weeks when we successfully backed them in upset wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. I won't hesitate to go the other way this week, however, as they return home in a favored role against division-rival Jacksonville. Indy's offense remains broken. QB Matt Ryan has shown no ability whatsoever to push the ball down the field, wasting the talent of WR Michael Pittman in the process. While RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, I'm not convinced he'll be able to find any running room behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to both run and pass block. The Jags defense has held up as well as anyone could have expected so far this season. Even two weeks ago when their offense turned the football over a whopping five times in the rain in Philadelphia, they still 'only' allowed 29 points against a high-powered Eagles offense. Last week's loss certainly can't be pinned on the defense as the Jags offense simply couldn't get anything going against the Texans. There are going to be some growing pains like that over the course of the season for this offense but I expect it to bounce back on Sunday. The Colts defense was made to look good against a punchless Broncos offense last week. I don't believe it will be so fortunate here as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence looked incredibly comfortable against this unit back in Week 2, picking it apart for 25-of-30 passing for 235 yards. Even last year, when the Jags were an absolute mess, they still managed to stay within six points of the Colts as a double-digit underdog here in Indy. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored here. Take Jacksonville (10*).

My selection is on Iowa State plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Iowa State enters this game reeling on the heels of three straight losses while Texas is brimming with confidence following consecutive wins, including a big 49-0 thumping over Oklahoma in last Saturday's Red River Shootout. The Cyclones have taken the last three meetings in this series and you would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2014, to find the last time either team scored more than 30 points in this matchup. I don't think getting over the hump against the Cyclones is going to be a slam dunk for the Longhorns here and will gladly grab the generous helping of points with underdog Iowa State. The season started well enough for Iowa State as it posted three straight victories, including an 'upset' win on the road against rival Iowa. The Cyclones ground game was rolling and the defense was firing on all cylinders. The good news is, the defense has continued to play well. It's been the offense that has let them down. I do think we'll see the Cyclones get back to running the football in an effort to shorten this game on Saturday. You can run on the Longhorns, as the likes of Alabama, UTSA, Texas Tech and even Oklahoma have shown. Texas will of course want to run the football as well, but it could be tough sledding against a Cyclones defense that has held all six opponents to 131 or fewer rushing yards on just 3.1 yards per rush. Just two games back we saw Iowa State allow two second quarter touchdowns against Kansas before shutting the Jayhawks out the rest of the way (that was when Kansas was at full strength on offense with a healthy Jalon Daniels and Daniel Hishaw). The Cyclones gave up a touchdown less than three minutes into the game against Kansas State last Saturday but then held the Wildcats out of the end zone for the remainder of the contest. Here, we'll note that Iowa State is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Texas checks in 1-4 ATS the last five times it has come off consecutive SU wins and is just 5-7 ATS the last 12 times it has followed up a 37+ point performance, which is also the situation here. Take Iowa State (8*).

NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Commanders have fallen on hard times, dropping four straight games since opening the season with a 28-22 win over the Jaguars. They've also faced a tough slate, however, starting with a trip to Detroit to face what was a full-strength Lions team at the time followed by a home game against the still-undefeated Eagles, a road game against a better than expected Cowboys team and finally a home date against an improving Titans squad. Here, Washington catches a break as it faces Chicago on a short week, with the Bears coming off an emotionally and physically draining 29-22 division loss against the Vikings on Sunday. The Bears do check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season but those victories came in a monsoon against the 49ers in Week 1 and over a then-winless Texans squad in Week 3. Here, they'll host a Commanders squad that checks in a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off four consecutive losses and a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two times it has come off three straight games in which it scored 17 or fewer points, as is the case here. I don't like the regression we've seen from the Bears defense in recent weeks. They've been getting gashed by opposing running games and that's an area I feel the Commanders can exploit as well. Chicago has already allowed three of its five opponents to rack up 175+ rushing yards this season. Offensively, Bears QB Justin Fields is coming off one of the best games of his young career but I question whether he can follow it up here, noting that they had a considerable advantage against a weak Vikings defense that doesn't stop the run and didn't really have anyone that could match up against Chicago's lone true receiving threat in Darnell Mooney. Washington has quietly played well defensively after a tough start to the campaign. It has held its last three opponents to just 2.6 yards per rush. The only opponent to throw for more than 260 yards against the Commanders this season was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Over the last two games, Washington has held the opposition to just 30-of-52 passing for 353 yards. While it's true those two games came against Cooper Rush and Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields is generally only asked to be a 'game manager' as well. Note that the Bears are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS victory, which is the situation here. They're also 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss against a division opponent. We'll plug our noses and back the Commanders here, noting that there's an outside chance we could see Ron Rivera finally lift QB Carson Wentz for experienced backup Taylor Heineke should Wentz get off to a poor start. That would only work in our favor in my opinion. Take Washington (10*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Temple plus the points over Central Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Temple plays about as ugly a brand of football as you'll find but it does succeed ATS, having covered in three of its five games so far this season. Here, I do think the Owls can run a little bit and ultimately move the chains and possess the football long enough to stay inside the pointspread. Temple has dropped each of the last five meetings in this series, failing to defeat UCF since 2016. It would be easy for the Knights to overlook the Owls coming off a big win over SMU and looking ahead to an away showdown against East Carolina next week. While UCF did prevail by a lopsided 41-19 score against a good SMU squad last week, that game ultimately turned on a couple of third quarter Knights touchdowns and from there the Mustangs came unglued trying to rally and UCF extended the winning margin. It wasn't until less than six minutes remaining in the first half before the Knights reached the end zone in that game. Two games back against Georgia Tech, UCF didn't score an offensive touchdown until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple has turned the football over 13 times through five games this season yet hasn't given up more than 30 points in a single contest. I do think we'll see the Owls go a little more conservative offensively in this one, simply looking to salvage some confidence from this two-game away set after a three-touchdown loss at Memphis last time out. On the flip side, the Knights might want to scale back dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee a little as he has led the team in rushing in all but one of its five games this season and it will certainly need his exploits at full-go down the stretch. Here, we'll note that UCF checks in 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory by 21+ points and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 contests after scoring 37+ points in its previous game. Look for the Knights to 'manage' this game and it ultimately comes at the expense of an ATS victory. Take Temple (10*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Raiders, while coming off a much-needed victory over the Broncos last Sunday, are still watching their season slip away with the prospect of falling a full three games back of the AFC West-leading Chiefs on Monday night. I think there's a better chance of them avoiding that fate than most seem to believe. Here, we get Las Vegas playing with triple-revenge having lost the last three meetings in this series since posting a stunning 40-32 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead back on October 11, 2020 - almost two years to the day. To me, the Raiders woes aren't all that difficult to fix. They've been settling for far too many field goals rather than touchdowns - case in point, last week against the Broncos they kicked four field goals but still managed to produce 32 points. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Raiders passing game after going up against one of the best secondaries in football last week. I'm confident that will lead to a couple more touchdown drives. Getting slot WR Hunter Renfrow back certainly helps as well after he thrived in a pair of matchups against the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs are coming off a nationally-televised blowout win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. That was a true 'get-right' spot after suffering a 20-17 loss to the Colts the week previous (we won with Indianapolis in that game). Kansas City dropped the cash in its lone previous home game this season and is now 0-5 ATS in its last five home games when priced as a favorite between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Interestingly, the Chiefs are also 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've come off a wild, high-scoring game where both teams scored 30+ points, which is also the situation here. The Raiders are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 contests as a road underdog. Take Las Vegas (10*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I think it's reasonable to question whether the Rams offense is broken at this point. Largely due to injuries on the offensive line but also as a result of lukewarm play-calling from Sean McVay, the Rams looked punchless and very much like a one-tricky pony - that trick being Cooper Kupp - in Monday's lopsided defeat at the hands of the 49ers. QB Matt Stafford hasn't looked right all season and is always on the verge of injury facing relentless pressure due to his makeshift o-line's ineffectiveness. Note that even on Monday, when Stafford attempted 48 passes (completing 32 of them) he still threw for only 200 yards. Defensively, the Rams are also dealing with a number of injuries and while they may get some players back this week, the prospect of everyone being back at full strength isn't all that high playing on a short week. Los Angeles' poor tackling was evident all night long against the 49ers on Monday. Only San Francisco's conservative play-calling (with its own o-line injury issues) helped keep things from getting completely out of hand. The Cowboys roll into this showdown on the heels of three straight wins. QB Cooper Rush isn't being asked to do too much but he's been serviceable as an NFL starter, leading Dallas to four victories and not a single defeat going back to last season. Dallas regained the services of WR Michael Gallup last week and he quickly got on the scoreboard with a touchdown. The Cowboys receiving corps is starting to come a little more into focus with CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown (who has been better than expected) and Gallup. Dallas is now 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. It's worth noting that the Rams have gone a miserable 25-43 ATS in their last 68 home games with the total set between 42.5 and 45 points. The projected low-scoring nature of this game favors grabbing the points with the underdog Cowboys. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The 49ers picked up a statement win against the division-rival and defending Super Bowl champion Rams on Monday Night Football but I look for them to get all they can handle against the Panthers in Carolina on Sunday. This is a tough spot at the best of times as the Niners hit the road on a short week to face a Panthers squad that's fresh off a home loss against the Cardinals last Sunday. While the Panthers are 1-3 to start the campaign, they've been competitive in all four games with two of their three losses coming by three points or less. With RB Christian McCaffrey (who I'll admit has been quiet so far this season) and a capable defense led by a terrific pass rush, I suspect Carolina will rarely be blown out this season. There's certainly a path for the Panthers to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and let their defense take care of the rest. In what projects to be a low-scoring affair (the total sits in the high-30's at the time of writing), I'm comfortable grabbing the points, noting that the Panthers check in a long-term 60-39 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here. The 49ers not only lost Trent Williams to injury but his backup, Connor McKivitz, who had been filling in admirably, is now out until December as well. I expect to see the Niners continue to focus on running the football and getting the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo's hand quickly when they do elect to throw it. Again, that leads to the potential of long, clock-churning drives that help our cause with the points in our back pocket here. Here, we'll note that the 49ers are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on the road after allowing fewer than 10 points in their previous game and 22-39 ATS in their last 61 contests away from home off a victory by 14 points or more, which is also the situation here. Take Carolina (8*).

NFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've been high on the Falcons lately and why not as they've gone a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season, including consecutive outright underdog wins over Seattle and Cleveland. I think they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday, however, as they travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers squad that finds itself in a blow-up spot off consecutive home losses against the Packers and Chiefs. It's not often teams get to play three straight games at home but that's the case for the Bucs on Sunday. They're seemingly catching the Falcons at the right time as well as Atlanta will be without Swiss Army knife RB Cordarrelle Patterson. That's not to mention the fact that TE Kyle Pitts is banged-up as well - likely to play but not likely to be at 100%. Of course, Pitts has been disappointing apart from his strong blocking this year, failing to live up to the hype in his sophomore campaign, so far at least. Lost in the Falcons competitive start to the season is the fact that their offense has been extremely limited and one-dimensional. Last week, QB Marcus Mariota completed just 7-of-19 passes for 131 yards against a Browns pass defense that had been struggling (not to mention a pass rush that was missing Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney). Since completing 20 passes in Week 1 against New Orleans, Mariota has totalled 17 or less completions in each of the last three games. We know that the Bucs can stop the run and that leaves the Falcons in a tough spot should they fall behind early in this one. Tampa Bay's offense was forced to throw the gameplan out the window after digging an early hole of its own against Kansas City last Sunday night. In fact, the Bucs have run the football only 20 times in the last week as game script has certainly worked against them. Here, we can anticipate a much different story unfolding as the Falcons have done little to slow opposing ground attacks, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. And let's not forget that the Tampa Bay offense got most of its key parts back last week with Mike Evans leading the charge with two touchdown receptions. Atlanta's opponents have been filling up the boxscore through the air, completing 23, 27, 32 and 21 passes through four games - despite combining for seven turnovers short-circuiting drive-after-drive. The Bucs had little trouble in this matchup last year, winning both meetings by a combined 78-42 margin. Here, we'll note that the Falcons check in a woeful 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've come off an outright win as a home underdog, as is the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

MWC Game of the Month. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force. The Falcons are coming off an ugly 13-10 victory over Navy last Saturday. Bettors lined up to back Air Force in that contest and got burned as it never came close to sniffing out a cover. Here, I think the wrong thing to do would be to back off of the Falcons. They're in a smash spot as they make the trip to Logan to take on Utah State. The Aggies are off to a 1-4 start and while they did put up more of a fight than most expected, they still dropped a 38-26 decision against BYU last Thursday. Utah State jumped out to an early 7-0 start in that contest with surprising starting QB Cooper Legas clearly catching the BYU defense off guard. From there, however, it managed just two more touchdowns the rest of the way with one of those coming in the game's final two minutes when the outcome was all but decided. Just two games back, when the Aggies were fresh off an embarrassing 35-7 home loss against FCS squad Weber State and appeared to be in prime bounce-back position, they gave up three UNLV touchdowns over a seven-minute stretch early in the contest and ultimately lost by 10 points at home. We've already successfully backed Air Force twice this season, at home against Colorado and Nevada, while also successfully fading it in its lone previous loss - a stunning 17-14 weeknight defeat in Wyoming back on September 16th. I'm not going to knock the Falcons over last week's tight decision against a struggling Navy squad as you never really know how those 'Commander-in-Chief Trophy' games will go (just ask Army about its game against Navy last December). Air Force has undoubtedly had this game circled after dropping a wild 49-45 loss against Utah State in last year's meeting. That was a much stronger Aggies squad, on both sides of the football. I have little confidence in Utah State's ability to get back in this game should it fall behind as Air Force controls the football, controls the clock and ultimately controls the outcome. Take Air Force (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Vanderbilt at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We faded Ole Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a Kentucky ATS cover in a 22-19 Rebels victory. For the first time this season the Rebels offense looked ordinary as it didn't reach the end zone again after scoring its second touchdown of the game with just under a minute remaining in the first quarter. This is a blow-up spot for the Ole Miss offense as it heads to Nashville to face Vanderbilt. The Commodores check in 3-2 on the season but inconsistency has been their calling card. I just don't think they're ever going to regain the form that saw them score 63 points in their Week 0 rout of Hawaii. It's easy to forget as they didn't play last week but the last time we saw the Commodores they were blasted 55-3 by Alabama. Vandy has now gone five consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown. I don't like the way its quarterback situation has been handled this season as dual-threat QB Mike Wright has been benched for A.J. Swann. Save for one-off career games from RB Ray Wright and WR Will Sheppard against Northern Illinois, the Commodores offense really hasn't been anything special. It's a different story for Ole Miss. As I mentioned, the Rebels didn't have their best offensive performance last Saturday but that was against a tough Kentucky defense. Two games back, the Rebels had a stretch where they scored four touchdowns in 13 minutes in the second quarter against Tulsa. They also scored six touchdowns in the first three quarters in a road win over Georgia Tech - a similar opponent to Vandy - back on September 17th. On the flip side, in its last 16 quarters of football, the Rebels defense has allowed just six touchdowns. I see this as a 'squash match' for visiting Ole Miss. Take Ole Miss (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on TCU minus the points over Kansas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kansas has turned heads in the early going this season, reeling off five consecutive victories to break into the Top 25. I expect the Jayhawks run to end here, however. Last week's 14-11 win over Iowa State was the high point for Kansas - finally earning it some national recognition for its hot start. It will be running into a juggernaut in the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday. TCU absolutely throttled Oklahoma last Saturday, scoring five touchdowns in an 18-minute stretch in the first half to jump ahead and never look back in a 55-24 win. That's just the tip of the iceberg though. Two weeks ago the Horned Frogs scored four touchdowns in a 22-minute period in the first half en route to a 42-34 win over SMU, on the road no less, and there were also earlier merciless beatings of Colorado and FCS squad Tarleton State by a combined 97-30 margin. While the TCU defense has been somewhat forgiving in the early going this season, I will note that it allowed just two Oklahoma touchdowns in the first three quarters of last week's game. Against SMU it was already ahead 28-7 before the Mustangs caught it with its guard down and ultimately made a game of it. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Horned Frogs keep their mind on task against a conference opponent on the road. I hate to say it, but I do feel that Kansas has been very fortunate to start 5-0. Both West Virginia and Houston appeared poised to end the Jayhawks undefeated run earlier in the season but I think they both got caught thinking they could shift it into cruise control after building two-touchdown first quarter leads. This is obviously a much different Jayhawks squad and one that shouldn't be dismissed. I'm just not convinced the Kansas offense can keep within arm's reach in this one, noting that Iowa State laid out a pretty good blueprint for slowing dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels last Saturday, even in a losing effort (Daniels completed just 7-of-14 passes for 93 yards and ran for only nine yards on eight attempts). Kansas lost RB Daniel Hishaw to an injury in that contest as well, heaping a little more pressure on Daniels moving forward. Here, we'll note that Kansas is a woeful 35-54 ATS the last 89 times it has come off a home victory. In the Jayhawks last 21 games as an underdog they've been outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points. While I understand this is a different Kansas team, I'm still not completely sold on it being a legitimate Big 12 contender. Take TCU (10*).

My selection is on Nevada minus the points over Colorado State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

You won't find me backing Nevada to often this season, in fact we successfully faded the Wolf Pack in their most recent game two weeks ago - a 48-20 loss at Air Force. This is more of a fade of Colorado State than anything else. While few were paying attention, the Rams fell to 0-4 on the campaign with a 41-10 loss to FCS squad Sacramento State prior to their bye week. While Sacramento State is a capable squad having gone 4-0 so far this season, its four wins have come against opponents that have combined to go 4-14. In that lopsided defeat at the hands of the Hornets, the Rams failed to reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half. They've managed to score just two touchdowns in their last nine quarters of football. On the flip side, the CSU defense has been a train wreck. Note that it allowed Washington State - a good offensive team but by no means a juggernaut - to score four touchdowns over a 21-minute stretch two games back. Nevada is off to a disappointing 2-3 start. I say disappointing because the Wolf Pack did post consecutive wins to open the campaign. Of course, they've faced a tough slate of opponents over the last few games including one of the best teams in FCS, Incarnate Word followed by Iowa and Air Force with the latter two matchups coming on the road. This is a key 'get right' spot before Nevada travels to Hawaii and then the schedule really toughens up. The last time we saw the Wolf Pack here at home they jumped out to a 17-3 first quarter lead against Incarnate Word. They seemingly thought a win was already in the bag at that point, which was obviously a big mistake as Incarnate Word can score points in bunches, as it did in that contest. The Rams don't figure to pose a similar challenge here. Note that Nevada is 41-24 ATS the last 65 times it has played at home after an ATS loss but better still, it checks in 24-11 ATS the last 35 times it has played at home off a loss by 17+ points, as is the case here. Take Nevada (8*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Colts two weeks ago as they pulled off a stunning upset of the Chiefs at home. They couldn't follow it up with another victory last Sunday as they fell by a 24-17 score at home against the division-rival Titans. Note that Indianapolis was seemingly driving for the game-tying touchdown deep in Tennessee territory midway through the fourth quarter before a Jonathan Taylor fumble. Taylor is of course now injured and questionable to play on a short week. I'm not overly concerned with his potential absence as this Colts offense works just fine with Nyheim Hines in the backfield, who is more of a dual-threat back. Here, we'll note that the Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS. The pressure is mounting in Denver as the Broncos are now 2-2 on the season off a loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders were the first team to really run at this Broncos defensive front and they racked up 212 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Offensively, the Broncos have been a mess. It's getting to the point where you have to wonder whether Russell Wilson (and head coach Nathaniel Hackett for that matter) are the right fit running this offense. The Colts couldn't stop Derrick Henry last Sunday but that's nothing new. They did shut down the Titans passing game for the most part, allowing only 116 yards on 17-of-21 pass completions. Most are quick to write off Colts QB Matt Ryan who I'll admit appears 'washed' through the first four games of the season. I do think there's more to this team than just Ryan, however, and I'm confident head coach Frank Reich can scheme up a solid bounce-back performance from his team here. Take Indianapolis (10*).

My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Are we sure that Brian Hoyer is that much of a downgrade over Mac Jones at quarterback for the Patriots? Hoyer knows the offense and likely won't be asked to do too much anyway in this game. The Patriots have one of the more underrated backfields in the NFL and will look to pound away against a vulnerable Packers defense that has yielded north of 5.0 yards per rush this season. Green Bay checks in off consecutive wins both SU and ATS, taking advantage of two inept offenses (albeit for different reasons) in the Bears and Buccaneers. On paper, this looks like a similar matchup against the Pats but I'm not ready to write off New England just yet. Last week was a poor matchup for the Pats against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens but I expect them to fare much better defensively against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who will likely look to go run-heavy in this matchup. It all leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives, effectively shortening this game and favorite the underdog Pats. Take New England (8*).