My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

While Kansas City is aiming for a historic third consecutive Super Bowl title, there's a strong case to be made that the Eagles are being undervalued in this matchup. Despite some early season struggles, Philadelphia has been among the league’s best teams all year and possesses one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. The extra week of preparation should benefit the Eagles significantly, allowing their offensive line to get back to full strength and giving Jalen Hurts additional time to recover. When at their best, the Eagles have shown the ability to control games with their balanced attack, and I expect them to lean heavily on their ground game and physicality in an effort to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense off the field.

Kansas City has certainly hit its stride down the stretch, covering the spread in four consecutive games, but it has been a different story over the course of the full season. The Chiefs finished just 8-10-1 ATS, often struggling to put teams away despite their success in the win column. Philadelphia, meanwhile, enters with a 13-7 ATS record and will be eager to embrace the underdog role in this spot. The Eagles’ defensive front has the capability to disrupt Mahomes and force him off his spot, something few teams have successfully done in recent weeks. If the Eagles can generate pressure and avoid allowing Mahomes to extend plays, they should have a legitimate chance to win this game outright.

While Kansas City holds an edge in terms of experience and coaching, I don’t see a significant talent gap on the field. Philadelphia’s offensive and defensive lines should give them an advantage in the trenches, and if they can dictate the pace of play, they’ll be in a strong position to win this game outright. With the potential for a close contest, I’ll grab the points with the Eagles and also suggest a sprinkle on Saquon Barkley to win the game MVP.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Eagles 24, Chiefs 21.

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm ET on Sunday.

Kansas City is on the brink of making history, aiming for a record-setting third straight Super Bowl title, and this matchup with Buffalo feels like another stepping stone. While public sentiment may lean toward rooting against the Chiefs, that only serves to fuel Kansas City's fire as it prepares to face its playoff rival once again. The Chiefs hold a psychological edge, having won three consecutive postseason meetings against the Bills, proving they know how to rise to the occasion when it matters most.

Kansas City enters this contest following consecutive ATS defeats (based on the closing number of -9.5 against Houston last week) but had delivered three straight ATS wins prior to that, showing it’s capable of covering when the stakes are high. Conversely, Buffalo has won and covered its first two playoff games but has yet to show consistency from a betting perspective, with its longest ATS streak this season topping out at three games.

Buffalo's defense, particularly its secondary, might have been a key factor in this matchup, but injuries have created significant concerns. With Benford, Johnson, Rapp, and Milano all dealing with ailments, the Bills are vulnerable against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's high-powered offense.

Expect the Chiefs to exploit Buffalo's defensive weaknesses and capitalize on their playoff experience to punch their ticket to another Super Bowl.

Take Kansas City.

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 3 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles and Commanders split their two regular-season meetings, but it’s important to note that Washington needed a massive effort, including 36 points and an early exit by Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, to secure its win. This NFC Championship matchup looks far less favorable for Washington, which enters on an improbable seven-game winning streak that included consecutive upset victories on the road against the Buccaneers and Lions.

While the Eagles have faced criticism for a relatively weak schedule, Washington has faced an even lighter slate of opponents by most metrics. The Commanders’ Cinderella run has been impressive, but this spot may prove too tough to overcome, particularly against an Eagles squad that is 9-1 straight-up at home this season, with an average winning margin of 9.5 points per game.

Philadelphia, with home-field advantage and momentum on its side, is poised to roll on Sunday and secure its Super Bowl berth.

Take Philadelphia.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Notre Dame at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

Ohio State enters this matchup in peak form, delivering three dominant performances against Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas following their surprising loss to Michigan on November 30th. The Buckeyes have shown they can rise to the occasion against elite competition, and their schedule ranks among the toughest in the nation, further justifying their status as favorites here.

Notre Dame has enjoyed an outstanding season, rattling off 13 straight victories since a shocking loss to Northern Illinois back in early September. Their most recent triumph was an upset win over Penn State in the CFP semi-finals. The Irish have also been a bettors' favorite, going 9-0-1 ATS over their last 10 games. However, this marks a significant step up in competition against a deeper and more talented Buckeyes squad.

With Ohio State firing on all cylinders and boasting a talent edge on both sides of the ball, I expect them to put an end to Notre Dame's ATS streak and claim a convincing victory.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 17.

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm ET on Sunday.

This is a tough spot for the Rams, who must travel cross-country on a short week after their Monday night 'upset' victory over the Vikings. The physical and emotional toll of that game, combined with the travel, puts Los Angeles at a disadvantage against a well-rested and focused Eagles squad.

Philadelphia has already proven its superiority over the Rams with a decisive road victory earlier in the season. Now, the Eagles return home, where they’ve been a dominant force this season, buoyed by their relentless defense and potent ground game. The forecasted cold, windy, and snowy conditions are likely to favor the Eagles' style of play, which emphasizes controlling the line of scrimmage and pounding the football.

Expect Philadelphia to stick to its strengths and wear down the Rams, capitalizing on their travel fatigue and the challenging weather conditions to secure a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 27, Los Angeles 16.

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Washington at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

The Lions are in an excellent position as they host a Washington team riding high after a three-game winning streak both straight-up and against the spread, capped by an impressive upset win over Tampa Bay on the road last Sunday night. While the Commanders have been impressive, Detroit offers a significant challenge, especially at home, where the Lions have consistently excelled.

Detroit enters this contest well-rested after being idle last weekend, also riding its own three-game SU and ATS winning streak. At 15-2 straight-up and 12-5 against the spread this season, the Lions have proven their mettle against a tougher schedule compared to Washington. Meanwhile, the Commanders have been less reliable on the road, posting just a 4-5 ATS mark away from home.

The Lions’ well-rounded offense and opportunistic defense should be enough to control this matchup and put an end to Washington’s recent run of success. Look for Detroit to take care of business in convincing fashion.

Take Detroit. Projected score: Detroit 34, Washington 20.

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Chiefs find themselves in a prime position coming off two consecutive "off weeks" after resting their starters in Week 18 and earning a bye through the Wild Card round. The extra rest and preparation time should pay dividends as they take on a Texans team riding high following consecutive upset victories, including a decisive win over the Chargers last weekend. However, this matchup presents a much tougher challenge for Houston.

Kansas City already proved its superiority over the Texans earlier this season, winning a game that wasn’t as close as the final score suggested. While the Chiefs took a 38-0 loss to Denver in Week 18, it’s worth noting that none of their key players were on the field for that game. Now, the Chiefs are as healthy and prepared as they’ve been all season.

In contrast, the Texans are dealing with a series of injuries that could significantly hamper their chances in this spot. Facing an efficient, high-powered Kansas City offense at Arrowhead Stadium is a daunting task, particularly for a Houston team that may be due for a letdown after an emotional playoff victory.

Take Kansas City. Projected score: Kansas City 34, Houston 17.

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers will be looking to avenge their heart-breaking season-opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil as they clash once again, this time in a playoff setting. Green Bay may not carry a lot of momentum into this game after finishing the regular season with back-to-back losses both straight up and against the spread. However, this is a battle-tested team capable of rising to the occasion.

Philadelphia enters this contest with a stellar 14-3 record and closed the regular season with consecutive victories both SU and ATS. While that resume looks impressive, it's worth noting the Eagles benefited from one of the league’s weakest schedules.

Green Bay has the tools to keep this game competitive, and I expect a motivated effort from the Packers as they seek redemption. The playoff stakes, combined with their familiarity with the Eagles, should help them hang tough, with this one likely coming down to the wire.

Take Green Bay. Projected score: Philadelphia 23, Green Bay 21.

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Baltimore at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday.

We'll take the points with the Steelers as they look to exact revenge against their AFC North rival, Baltimore, in this high-stakes playoff matchup. Pittsburgh endured a humiliating loss when these teams last met three weeks ago, but that result should serve as added motivation for Mike Tomlin's squad on Saturday night.

While the Steelers enter this game on a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS), they've consistently shown resilience in divisional matchups, often finding ways to keep games close. Pittsburgh's defense remains its strongest asset and is more than capable of creating turnovers and limiting Baltimore's high-powered attack. Offensively, the Steelers have struggled, but their balanced approach could benefit from facing a Ravens defense that has occasionally been vulnerable against physical, grind-it-out teams.

Baltimore has been red-hot, winning and covering in four straight games by wide margins, thanks to an offense that has topped 30 points in each of those contests. However, the loss of standout wide receiver Zay Flowers is a significant blow, as his ability to stretch the field has been instrumental in opening up the Ravens' passing game. Without Flowers, Pittsburgh's defense will have a clearer path to disrupting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense.

In a rivalry as fierce as this one, laying a large number of points is always a risk. The Steelers are more than capable of keeping this game competitive with their physicality and familiarity with Baltimore's tendencies. Divisional playoff games often come down to the wire, and this one should be no exception.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20.

AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Miami at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

Despite their struggles this season, I see this as a strong spot for the Jets to close out the campaign on a high note. New York enters this contest off a pair of lopsided losses, including a 40-14 drubbing in Buffalo last week. However, this matchup against Miami offers an opportunity for redemption, particularly with revenge on the table following a 32-26 setback to the Dolphins earlier in the season.

Miami comes in riding the high of back-to-back victories over the 49ers and Browns, but both of those wins came against lackluster opponents, and the Dolphins were far from dominant. Cleveland, for instance, squandered multiple chances to make last Sunday's game competitive, ultimately undone by its own offensive woes.

The Jets, for all their issues, have shown flashes of competitiveness throughout the season and will relish the chance to spoil Miami's playoff hopes. Look for New York to come through as a slight home favorite.

Take New York. Projected score: Jets 24, Dolphins 20.

My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

This matchup sets up well for the Colts as they look to close out their season with a win and avenge a 37-34 loss in Jacksonville earlier this year. Indianapolis enters this game off a disappointing loss to the Giants in New Jersey last Sunday, a performance that should serve as motivation to finish strong in front of the home crowd.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, could find itself in a letdown spot. The Jaguars are fresh off a 20-13 victory over Tennessee in their home finale, a game that carried more emotional weight than this "meaningless" season-ender. While Jacksonville has shown flashes of improvement at times this season, their road performances remain inconsistent, and it’s reasonable to question their level of focus and intensity here.

Look for Indianapolis to take advantage of the situation, control the tempo, and secure a victory by margin.

Take Indianapolis. Projected score: Colts 30, Jaguars 17.

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Cincinnati enters this game on a high, having won four straight both straight up and against the spread, with their playoff hopes still alive. However, the Bengals have enjoyed favorable conditions at home against teams like the Broncos and Browns in recent weeks. This matchup in Pittsburgh, though, will present a different challenge. The Steelers will be hungry to spoil Cincinnati's playoff aspirations and have had extra time to prepare after a tough Christmas Day loss to the Chiefs at home. Expect Pittsburgh to come out with a renewed sense of urgency in front of their home crowd.

Pittsburgh had been playing solid football prior to this three-game slide, going 7-1 straight up and against the spread over their previous eight contests. They are more than capable of bouncing back at home, particularly with their defense likely to play a key role in keeping the Bengals' offense in check. The Steelers will not go down quietly, and their playoff hopes may be dashed, but they will take pride in spoiling Cincinnati’s chances.

Given the Steelers' resilience and the cold, challenging conditions in Pittsburgh, this game has all the makings of a tight, competitive contest. Look for the Steelers to keep it close and cover the spread.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Steelers 23, Bengals 20.

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Browns have endured a tough season, entering this matchup on a five-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread. Despite their struggles, this divisional clash offers an opportunity for Cleveland to play spoiler and end their campaign on a high note. Divisional games often bring out the best in underdogs, and I expect the Browns to rise to the occasion, particularly with nothing to lose.

Baltimore comes into this contest on a roll, riding a three-game winning streak both straight up and ATS. The Ravens dominated in a 31-2 victory over Houston on Christmas Day and have had extra time to rest and prepare. However, with the playoffs looming, this could be a spot where Baltimore takes its foot off the gas. A victory is likely all they need, with a margin of victory being less critical, especially in what promises to be cold, windy conditions.

Given the circumstances, the Ravens may struggle to cover the sizable spread against a Browns team that figures to play with pride and determination. Expect Cleveland to keep this one closer than expected.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Ravens 27, Browns 16.

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Buffalo at 11 am ET on Saturday.

We'll take the underdog Flames in this bowl matchup, as they look to rebound from an 'upset' road loss against Sam Houston State to close the regular season. That defeat ended a three-game winning streak for Liberty but doesn't overshadow the Flames' solid season and their ability to step up when underestimated.

Buffalo enters riding a four-game winning streak, capped by a dominant win over Kent State back in late November. However, that victory came against one of the weakest teams in FBS, and the Bulls' recent success has likely lost its momentum due to the extended layoff. While Buffalo's back-to-back ATS wins may catch bettors' attention, the long break levels the playing field, and this spread seems to overestimate their advantage.

Even with the usual bowl game uncertainties surrounding opt-outs and absences, I believe Liberty is the more motivated and prepared team, and they are undervalued in this spot. Expect the Flames to take control and deliver an outright win.

Take Liberty. Projected score: Liberty 30, Buffalo 24.

My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Texas State at 4 pm ET on Friday.

We'll grab the points with North Texas as it looks to snap a five-game ATS losing streak in this bowl game matchup. While the Mean Green Eagles have struggled down the stretch, losing five of their last six contests outright, this 'nothing to lose' situation provides them with an opportunity to regroup and deliver a strong performance.

On the other side, Texas State enters off a high-scoring 45-38 win and cover against South Alabama in its regular season finale. While the Bobcats have had a successful season, I don't see the motivation or dominance to justify laying nearly two touchdowns here, especially given the nature of bowl games, where teams often come in with varying levels of focus and preparation.

Expect a spirited effort from North Texas to keep this one within reach.

Take North Texas. Projected score: Texas State 34, North Texas 28.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Oregon at 5 pm ET on Wednesday.

While Oregon has had an incredible season, I believe Wednesday will mark the Ducks' first setback as they face a battle-tested Ohio State team in Pasadena. The Buckeyes come in on the heels of a dominant 42-17 victory over Tennessee in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. That recent action should benefit Ohio State, as it allowed them to maintain rhythm and even add strategic wrinkles to their game plan.

Meanwhile, Oregon hasn’t played since December 7th, which could lead to rust, especially against a high-powered team like the Buckeyes. Additionally, this game marks the Ducks' first contest on natural grass this season, a potentially significant factor in the Rose Bowl setting.

Ohio State also has the motivation of avenging a 32-31 loss to Oregon back on October 12th. The Buckeyes have improved significantly since then and are primed for a statement performance here.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 34, Oregon 27.

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday.

The Browns will look to near the end of a dismal season on a positive note as they play their final home game of the campaign. Despite their four-game losing streak both SU and ATS, Cleveland should be motivated to play spoiler against a Dolphins team that still clings to slim playoff hopes.

Miami comes into this matchup off an emotional 'upset' win over the 49ers last week, but it hasn't performed well on the road this season. The Dolphins are just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS away from home, averaging a meager 15.3 points per game in those contests.

Given the low total in this matchup, points will come at a premium, favoring the underdog Browns, who should be able to keep this game competitive. Miami's offense has shown inconsistencies away from South Florida, and Cleveland's defense is capable of rising to the occasion.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Miami 17, Cleveland 16.

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Buccaneers return home looking to bounce back after a disappointing 'upset' loss in Dallas last Sunday night. Despite that setback, Tampa Bay has been playing solid football, winning four of its last five games SU and covering the spread in five of its last seven contests.

This week, the Bucs face a Panthers squad that is coming off an emotionally charged 36-30 victory over Arizona. While that snapped Carolina's four-game skid, it may leave the Panthers vulnerable to a letdown. Carolina has enjoyed a strong run ATS recently, going 6-1 over its last seven games, but that record has been padded by situations as heavy double-digit underdogs, which is not the case here.

The Buccaneers' balanced offense and opportunistic defense should prove too much for the Panthers in this divisional matchup, especially with Tampa Bay playing at home, where they’ve historically performed well.

Take Tampa Bay. Projected score: Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 13.

My selection is on Army minus the points over Louisiana Tech at 9:15 pm ET on Saturday.

Louisiana Tech closed the regular season in stellar form, covering the spread in five straight games, including a commanding 33-0 win over Kennesaw State in its finale. However, the nearly month-long layoff since that contest could hinder its momentum heading into the Independence Bowl. The Bulldogs' level of competition during that stretch also leaves questions about how they’ll fare against a battle-tested opponent like Army.

The Black Knights enter this matchup fresh off a challenging three-week stretch, including the AAC Championship Game and their storied rivalry contest against Navy. While Army fell short in both outings, it is primed for a rebound here. The loss to Navy, where it was favored by six but lost 31-13, serves as added motivation heading into this game.

Army’s disciplined, clock-controlling offense is well-suited to frustrate Louisiana Tech, which could struggle to adjust after its extended layoff. With the Independence Bowl taking place in Shreveport, Army’s experience and preparation advantage could prove decisive in this spot.

Take Army. Projected score: Army 38, Louisiana Tech 13.

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm ET on Saturday.

While the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention following last week's disappointing 'upset' loss in Carolina, they should still relish the opportunity to play spoiler against their divisional rivals, the Rams. Arizona has been competitive in recent matchups with Los Angeles, and there’s reason to believe it can keep this game close.

The Rams enter riding a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS. However, those victories came against inconsistent opponents, and they’ve logged plenty of miles recently with wins in San Francisco and New York. This contest marks another tough spot for Los Angeles, particularly with a playoff berth within their grasp, perhaps leading to a less-than-urgent approach.

Arizona has shown fight in similar spoiler roles before and is catching the Rams as an inflated favorite. With nearly a touchdown of cushion, I expect the Cardinals to keep this one close and potentially take it down to the wire.

Take Arizona. Projected score: Los Angeles 23, Arizona 20.

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over N.C. State at 5:45 pm ET on Saturday.

East Carolina comes into this matchup off a disappointing loss to Navy in its regular season finale, a game that carried little weight after the Pirates had already secured Bowl eligibility. Before that stumble, ECU had been on a roll, winning four straight games (3-1 ATS) and showcasing the offensive balance and defensive grit that made it a tough out all season. With time to refocus and a prime opportunity to finish the year on a high note, the Pirates should be motivated and well-prepared for this in-state clash.

N.C. State’s season, by contrast, has been underwhelming relative to expectations. The Wolfpack salvaged a measure of pride with an 'upset' win over North Carolina to end the regular season, snapping a two-game losing streak. However, their struggles in a favored role have been glaring, as evidenced by their 1-5 ATS record when laying points this season.

With ECU boasting the ability to go toe-to-toe offensively and N.C. State struggling to assert dominance, this line feels inflated. Look for the Pirates to keep this one close and possibly spring the outright upset.

Take East Carolina. Projected score: N.C. State 28, East Carolina 27.

My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette plus the points over TCU at 2:15 pm ET on Saturday.

The Ragin' Cajuns enter this Bowl matchup seeking redemption after a humbling 31-3 defeat to Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship Game. That loss snapped an impressive stretch where Louisiana had won eight of nine games outright and covered the spread in five of its last six contests. This is a resilient group that has consistently performed well in the underdog role and should be motivated to deliver a stronger showing in the New Mexico Bowl.

On the other side, TCU salvaged its season by winning its final three regular-season games to secure Bowl eligibility. While that turnaround was commendable, the Horned Frogs may find it difficult to maintain that momentum, especially as they take the field as double-digit favorites in what might feel like an underwhelming postseason destination.

Louisiana's balanced attack and disciplined defense should allow the Ragin' Cajuns to hang tough against a TCU squad that may struggle to sustain its recent form in this setting.

Take Louisiana-Lafayette. Projected score: TCU 27, Louisiana-Lafayette 21.

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Syracuse at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Syracuse enters this Bowl matchup as a significant favorite, bolstered by a strong finish to its regular season with three straight wins, including a notable upset as a 12-point underdog against Miami. However, the Orange now face a cross-country trip to take on Washington State in unfamiliar territory, a potential recipe for a letdown in this mid-tier Bowl game.

The Cougars stumbled to close their season, dropping three straight games as double-digit favorites. Despite those setbacks, Washington State remains a dangerous opponent, particularly in this setting, having already proven its mettle on this field with a narrow 29-26 victory over San Diego State back in October.

With less pressure and plenty to prove, Washington State is primed to rise to the occasion and challenge Syracuse throughout this contest. The Cougars’ familiarity with the venue and their ability to keep games close make them a live underdog in this spot.

Take Washington State. Projected score: Syracuse 31, Washington State 24.

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm ET on Wednesday.

Kansas City enters this Christmas Day matchup riding a five-game winning streak, covering the spread in each of its last two contests. The Chiefs remain a formidable opponent, but this could be a tricky spot for them as they travel to face a Pittsburgh team desperate to end a two-game skid, both straight-up and ATS.

The Steelers are expected to get a boost with the anticipated return of WR George Pickens, adding a dynamic element to their offense. While Pittsburgh has struggled recently, its defense, particularly its front line, is well-equipped to disrupt a Kansas City offense still dealing with inconsistencies along its offensive line.

With Pittsburgh looking to deliver a strong performance in front of its home crowd and motivated to keep its playoff hopes alive, I like its chances of staying within the number.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Pittsburgh 24, Kansas City 23.

My selection is on South Florida plus the points over San Jose State at 8 pm ET on Tuesday.

South Florida enters the Hawaii Bowl with a strong finish to its regular season, having unlocked its offense to score 59, 63, and 28 points in its final three games. Although the Bulls were upset as 5.5-point favorites against Rice in their regular season finale, snapping a two-game winning streak, they’ll be eager to bounce back in a high-energy setting like this one. The Bulls have been able to move the ball effectively and should have success against a San Jose State team that has struggled a bit down the stretch.

San Jose State did manage to close its regular season with a win and cover at home against Stanford, but overall, the Spartans covered the spread just twice in their final eight regular-season contests. With the competition tougher late in the season, the Spartans' offense and defense both began to sputter.

In what should be a competitive game, South Florida’s recent offensive surge, combined with San Jose State’s struggles, makes the Bulls a strong play to stay within the points and potentially win outright.

Take South Florida. Projected score: South Florida 33, San Jose State 30.

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Fresno State at 2:30 pm ET on Monday.

Northern Illinois looks to close its season on a high note after narrowly missing out on a MAC Championship Game appearance, having won three of its last four games to end the regular season. While the Huskies have dropped three straight ATS decisions, much of that can be attributed to their being overvalued late in the campaign. Here, they face a Fresno State squad that they match up well against, and I believe the number is fair.

Fresno State finished its season with a modest six wins, though one of those victories came against an FCS opponent in Sacramento State – a game in which the Bulldogs failed to cover. While the schedule included some tough opponents, it wasn’t an overly impressive campaign, and Fresno enters this neutral-site matchup in unfamiliar territory, traveling to Boise.

Northern Illinois has shown it can rise to the occasion, highlighted by a road win over Notre Dame earlier in the season. Expect the Huskies to use their physicality and balance on offense to take control and cover the spread in this contest.

Take Northern Illinois. Projected score: Northern Illinois 30, Fresno State 21.

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday.

The Vikings have been riding high, boasting a seven-game winning streak that includes a 3-0 SU mark on their recent homestand. While they've been impressive, this matchup presents a potential stumbling block as they head west to face a Seahawks team eager to respond following last Sunday night's disappointing home loss to the Packers. That defeat not only snapped Seattle's four-game SU and ATS winning streak but also served as a wake-up call as the Seahawks prepare for their final home game of the regular season.

Historically, the Seahawks have been strong in bounce-back situations under head coach Pete Carroll, particularly at home. With added motivation to close out their home slate on a positive note, look for Seattle to keep this game competitive, if not pull off the outright upset. Minnesota's streak has been impressive, but the challenge of traveling to a tough road environment against a motivated opponent could prove too much.

Take Seattle. Projected score: Minnesota 24, Seattle 23.

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bears are not a popular play following their lopsided loss to the Vikings on Monday, but this is a prime spot for a bounce-back. Chicago has dropped eight straight games, including two consecutive ATS losses, but the team will be hungry to prove it can compete at home.

Meanwhile, Detroit comes off its first loss in 12 games after a defeat to Buffalo at home, with defensive injuries continuing to be a major issue. The Lions have also dropped three straight ATS, and their defense is struggling, leaving the door open for a more competitive game than most are expecting.

On Thanksgiving, the Bears nearly pulled off an upset at Detroit despite poor clock management spoiling a late-game comeback. With the game at Soldier Field this time, expect Chicago to keep things tight and cover the spread in a closely contested affair.

Take Chicago. Projected score: Detroit 27, Chicago 24.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Tennessee at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Ohio State comes into this game with something to prove after a shocking 13-10 loss to rival Michigan on November 30th. That disappointing defeat as a heavy 19-point favorite ended the Buckeyes' five-game winning streak, during which they went 3-2 ATS. It's worth noting that their only other loss this season came in a nail-biter on the road against eventual Big Ten champion Oregon, highlighting the quality of their campaign.

While Tennessee closed out the season with consecutive wins and covers, those victories came against overmatched opponents in UTEP and Vanderbilt. When last truly tested, the Volunteers fell by 14 points to Georgia on November 16th. That loss was part of a larger trend, as Tennessee managed just a 3-5 ATS record over its last eight games following a flawless 4-0 start both straight-up and against the spread.

Ohio State has faced the tougher schedule overall and brings superior talent to the table. The Buckeyes will be eager to rebound in a big way in this spot and I anticipate them overpowering a Tennessee team that hasn’t consistently delivered against top-tier competition.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 38, Tennessee 21.

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Steelers and Ravens consistently produce tight, hard-fought games, and this matchup should be no different. Pittsburgh claimed the first meeting between these AFC North rivals in a defensive battle, 18-16, back on November 17th. Despite coming off a rough loss in Philadelphia, the Steelers have shown resilience on the road this season, boasting a 5-3 SU and ATS record away from home. Optimism surrounding the return of T.J. Watt, who resumed practicing on Thursday, only adds to their chances of a bounce-back effort.

The Ravens, meanwhile, rolled past the struggling Giants last week but have been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses over their last four games and going 2-3 ATS in their last five. Baltimore remains a formidable opponent, yet its offensive line faces a stiffer challenge in this matchup compared to the Giants' underwhelming front.

Pittsburgh’s defense, especially with the potential presence of Watt, should be able to apply pressure and keep Baltimore’s offense in check. Given the Steelers' knack for performing well on the road and the Ravens’ tendency for up-and-down play, I anticipate another close contest, making the points valuable in this spot.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17.

My selection is on Texas minus the points over Clemson at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

The Longhorns enter this matchup looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That defeat marked Texas' second loss to the Bulldogs this season, accounting for their only blemishes on an otherwise stellar campaign. Notably, Texas has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation, which should have them well-prepared for this contest.

Clemson, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games, including two outright losses. While the Tigers deserve credit for their ACC Championship win over SMU, that came in a favorable spot following an emotional loss to South Carolina. This matchup is a different story, as Clemson steps up significantly in class against a Texas team that boasts superior talent and physicality on both sides of the ball.

With Texas eager to finish the season strong and erase the sting of its SEC title game loss, I expect the Longhorns to control this game from the outset and cover the number with room to spare.

Take Texas. Projected score: Texas 37, Clemson 20.

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

I believe there’s an underlying SEC bias influencing this line, which provides value on Tulane. The Green Wave enters this matchup with a 9-4 record but comes off consecutive losses both SU and ATS, including a blowout loss to Army in the AAC Championship Game. That disappointing finish should serve as a motivator for Tulane, giving them a chip on their shoulder as they take on an SEC opponent.

Florida, on the other hand, closed out an up-and-down season with three straight victories, including outright upset wins over LSU and Ole Miss. However, both of those wins came at home, where the Gators have thrived. Away from The Swamp, Florida has been far less reliable, posting a 1-3 record on the road this season. While this game takes place in Tampa, Florida’s proximity might not be enough to overcome its inconsistency outside Gainesville. Additionally, the Gators may not be fully locked in for this less-prestigious bowl game, with their focus perhaps lingering on missed opportunities this season.

Expect a motivated Tulane squad to keep this game close, and don’t be surprised if they push Florida to the brink.

Take Tulane. Projected score: Florida 27, Tulane 24.

My selection is on West Virginia plus the points over Memphis at 9 pm ET on Tuesday.

The line has shifted too far in Memphis' direction, especially given the circumstances surrounding both teams. Memphis comes off a 34-24 win over Tulane, but their season has been inconsistent, finishing 6-6 against the spread. There's also a question about their motivation in this matchup. They had a solid win to close the regular season, but they didn’t make the AAC Championship Game, which raises concerns about their energy level for this bowl game.

West Virginia, on the other hand, is playing for pride after a disappointing regular season. Despite firing head coach Neal Brown and the uncertainty surrounding the interim coaching staff, the Mountaineers still have a chance to finish the season on a positive note. They performed well on the road this season with wins at Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati, which shows they are capable of stepping up when needed.

While Memphis beat Cincinnati in last year's bowl game, that was a team decimated by opt-outs, unlike West Virginia, which will likely have fewer players missing this time around. With the Mountaineers motivated to save face after a tough year and Memphis potentially lacking the same drive, I believe the line has moved too far in the Tigers’ favor.

Take West Virginia. Projected score: West Virginia 27, Memphis 24.

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm ET on Monday.

The Bears stay on the road after a rough outing in San Francisco but have shown resilience throughout the season (at least from an ATS perspective), frequently keeping games competitive against tough divisional rivals. While they’ve lost seven straight, a narrow three-point defeat against these same Vikings in late November proves they can hang with Minnesota. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has been a bright spot, particularly against blitz-heavy defenses. That’s noteworthy given the Vikings' aggressive approach under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who loves to dial up pressure. Williams’ ability to make plays under duress could be pivotal in this matchup.

On the flip side, Minnesota has strung together six consecutive wins, but its games haven’t typically been blowouts. Seven of their 13 contests this season have been decided by six points or fewer. The Vikings are coming off a decisive win over the Falcons last Sunday, but replicating that level of dominance is no guarantee. Their offense has been effective but not overpowering, which should allow Chicago to stay within striking distance.

With a young quarterback who thrives against pressure and a divisional rival that rarely wins by margin, the Bears are in a solid position to cover the spread.

Take Chicago. Projected score: Minnesota 24, Chicago 21.

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

Philadelphia enters this contest on the heels of a less-than-impressive showing against Carolina last Sunday, failing to cover as a heavy favorite despite pulling out the victory. That result sets up a prime bounce-back spot for the Eagles, who continue to ride an impressive nine-game winning streak. Facing a Pittsburgh squad that has overachieved this season at 10-3, the Eagles will likely aim to reassert their dominance, especially with home-field advantage.

The Steelers have done well to string together consecutive wins, but their schedule strength is worth considering. A looming divisional clash with Baltimore could have them looking ahead, making this matchup in Philadelphia a potential difficult spot.

Expect Philadelphia to leverage its depth and talent edge on both sides of the ball, wearing down a Steelers team that may find it difficult to keep pace offensively. This feels like a spot where the Eagles return to form and deliver a decisive victory to keep their streak alive.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 31, Pittsburgh 17.

My selection is on Navy plus the points over Army at 3 pm ET on Saturday.

Army is riding high after a dominant performance in its blowout win over Tulane to secure the American Athletic Conference title last Friday. While the Black Knights’ victory was impressive, it also sets up a potential letdown spot here. Army enters this rivalry game laying more than a field goal, a relatively rare situation that hasn’t always gone well for them in this series. The last time Army was favored by more than three points against Navy, the Midshipmen pulled off a 17-13 upset as 7.5-point underdogs in 2021. Moreover, the Black Knights have cooled off against the spread, covering in just two of their last six games despite their continued success on the field.

Navy, meanwhile, has had an extra week to prepare after finishing its regular season with a convincing 34-20 win at East Carolina. The Midshipmen started the season with six straight wins and remain a formidable opponent, especially in the tightly contested Army-Navy rivalry. This matchup has a long history of close finishes, with eight of the last ten meetings being decided by a touchdown or less. Navy’s disciplined approach and ability to rise to the occasion in this emotional game make them a live underdog once again.

Take Navy. Projected score: Army 20, Navy 17.

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm ET on Monday.

Cincinnati enters this matchup on a three-game skid but finds itself in a favorable spot to rebound against a Dallas squad whose recent wins mask deeper struggles in what has become a lost season. At 5-7 and without QB Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have battled but lack the firepower to match an explosive Bengals offense. Cincinnati has consistently found the end zone, scoring 41, 34, 27, and 38 points in its last four games, and will likely exploit a Dallas defense that has shown cracks against high-powered opponents.

Even on the road, Cincinnati’s superior offensive firepower and urgency to end its losing streak should prove decisive. While Dallas has overachieved in consecutive wins both SU and ATS, this matchup represents a step up in class that the Cowboys are ill-equipped to handle.

Take Cincinnati. Projected score: Cincinnati 28, Dallas 17.

NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles are in a classic letdown spot, returning home after a pair of impressive road wins and covers against the Rams and Ravens. With eight straight victories, Philadelphia is riding high but might find it challenging to sustain maximum focus as heavy favorites against a seemingly overmatched Carolina team.

The Panthers, however, have been quietly improving. They've covered the spread in four straight games, showing resilience and competitiveness against more talented opponents. Their recent form suggests they can hang around even against a powerhouse like Philadelphia, especially if the Eagles come out flat.

Carolina’s defense has stepped up lately, and their offense has done just enough to keep games tight. With nearly two touchdowns to work with, the Panthers offer value as a team likely to frustrate the Eagles in a closer-than-expected contest.

Take Carolina. Projected score: Philadelphia 27, Carolina 20.

NFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday.

Detroit enters this game on a 10-game win streak, but it's been far from perfect. Last week, they narrowly escaped a comeback attempt by the Bears, with poor clock management costing Chicago at the end of the game. While the Lions' impressive streak is notable, their defensive injuries have started to pile up and could present significant issues against a high-powered Packers offense.

Green Bay comes into this matchup with momentum, having won three straight games and scoring 30 or more points in each of the last two. They have the offensive firepower to exploit Detroit's defensive weaknesses, particularly with key players missing. The Packers also have confidence from last season's Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit, which could fuel their motivation in this divisional matchup.

While the Lions are a strong team, Green Bay's recent form and the issues Detroit is facing make this game much closer than expected. The Packers should cover the spread with a competitive showing.

Take Green Bay. Projected score: Green Bay 27, Detroit 24.

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Minnesota enters riding a four-game winning streak, but this game could present a letdown spot as the Vikings return home after three straight road victories. While their recent success is notable, cracks in the defense were evident in last Sunday’s narrow win over Chicago, where they struggled to contain a pedestrian Bears offense.

Arizona, on the other hand, comes off a loss in Seattle, snapping its own four-game winning streak. The Cardinals have proven they can compete against quality opponents, and their dynamic offense poses a significant challenge for Minnesota. Expect Arizona to exploit mismatches, especially if Vikings QB Sam Darnold struggles to maintain consistency against an opportunistic Cardinals defense.

This is a spot where Arizona’s versatility and recent form should keep the game close, if not deliver an outright upset.

Take Arizona. Projected score: Arizona 27, Minnesota 24.

AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Texans are primed for a strong response after last week’s upset loss at home to Tennessee, as they hit the road to face a struggling Jaguars team. Houston’s offense has shown explosiveness this season and should thrive against a Jacksonville defense that has been porous, allowing a staggering 52 points in its most recent outing against Detroit. Even with a bye week to regroup, the Jags' defensive issues are unlikely to be fully resolved.

Jacksonville’s offense, meanwhile, could be hampered by a less-than-healthy Trevor Lawrence, who has been battling injuries and has limited weapons to work with. Scoring consistently against a Texans defense that has shown flashes of competence will be a challenge for the Jags.

While Jacksonville has covered the spread in the last two meetings, Houston has largely had the upper hand in this series, and the Jaguars’ recent inconsistency makes them hard to trust in this spot. Look for the Texans to take control early and cover comfortably.

Take Houston. Projected score: Texans 31, Jaguars 17.

My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over New Mexico at 11 pm ET on Saturday.

Hawaii enters this matchup with little fanfare after suffering a blowout loss to Utah State in its most recent outing. However, the Rainbow Warriors have had an extra week to prepare and should be motivated to deliver a strong effort in their final home game of the season, especially with revenge in mind after a 42-21 loss to New Mexico last year.

New Mexico, on the other hand, is riding high after consecutive upset victories over San Diego State and Washington State, but the timing of the bye week may have disrupted their momentum. The Lobos are in a pressure-packed situation, needing a win to become bowl eligible. That pressure, coupled with Hawaii's potential to exceed expectations in its home finale, could make this a closer game than most anticipate.

Take Hawaii. Projected score: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27.

Sun Belt Conference Favorite of the Year. My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Marshall at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Marshall has enjoyed a tremendous season, currently riding a five-game winning streak and boasting an impressive 9-1-1 ATS record. However, this sets up as a challenging spot for the Thundering Herd as they stay on the road following an emotional upset win over Old Dominion last Saturday. Marshall's road performance has been less impressive, going 2-3 away from home.

James Madison, on the other hand, will be eager to bounce back after seeing its three-game winning streak snapped in a surprising loss at Appalachian State last week. The Dukes have been dominant at home, where they remain undefeated this season. Additionally, JMU has the added confidence of having won last year’s matchup against Marshall 20-9, a result that saw its defense shine.

The Dukes' strong home form and motivation to finish the regular season on a high note give them the edge in this spot.

Take James Madison. Projected score: James Madison 28, Marshall 17.

My selection is on UTEP plus the points over New Mexico State at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

New Mexico State is coming off a convincing 36-21 win at Middle Tennessee State last week, a result that marked just its third victory of the season. However, a closer look reveals that the Aggies' other two wins came by a combined 10 points, with one of those coming against FCS opponent Southeast Missouri State and the other against struggling Louisiana Tech. Now, as they wrap up their season at home in the Battle of I-10, the Aggies face a UTEP squad that should be eager to put up a fight despite its own challenges.

UTEP is fresh off a lopsided 56-0 loss to Tennessee, but that result was largely expected against a far superior opponent. Prior to that, the Miners had won two of their last four games and have shown resilience in spots this season. With this being their season finale, expect UTEP to come out motivated, especially in a rivalry game.

Take UTEP. Projected score: UTEP 24, New Mexico State 21.

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Central Michigan at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Central Michigan earned a morale-boosting upset win over Western Michigan in its home finale last week, but it does little to change the trajectory of a disappointing season. Sitting at 3-7, the Chippewas are out of bowl contention and face a challenging matchup against Northern Illinois to close out their campaign.

Northern Illinois has had an up-and-down season but still has plenty to play for, needing a win to secure bowl eligibility. The Huskies delivered one of the season's most surprising upsets with a victory over Notre Dame in South Bend earlier this year, showcasing their potential when playing at their best. While inconsistency has been an issue, Northern Illinois possesses the talent to take control of this game against an overmatched Central Michigan squad.

Look for the Huskies to handle business in their regular-season finale.

Take Northern Illinois. Projected score: Northern Illinois 34, Central Michigan 17.

My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Auburn at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Alabama took a step back last week, suffering a humbling defeat at Oklahoma that snapped their three-game winning streak. Back at home in the Iron Bowl, expect the Crimson Tide to come out with purpose, eager to put last week’s disappointment behind them.

Auburn, meanwhile, has built some momentum with back-to-back wins and covers, including a thrilling 43-41 upset over Texas A&M. However, the Tigers haven’t faced a road test since late October and have only played three road games all season, which could make this environment a daunting challenge.

Alabama’s defense should tighten up against an Auburn offense that relies heavily on big plays, while the Tide’s balanced attack has the tools to exploit Auburn's vulnerabilities.

Look for Alabama to control the pace and pull away in the second half, securing a convincing victory in this rivalry matchup.

Take Alabama. Projected score: Alabama 38, Auburn 21.

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over Georgia State at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina has struggled recently, dropping five of its last six games both SU and ATS. However, this represents a good spot for the Chanticleers to bounce back, as they face a Georgia State team that, despite a shocking upset win over Texas State last week, has endured a challenging season overall.

The Panthers’ victory in San Marcos was impressive, but it’s important to note that it followed a seven-game losing streak. With both teams out of bowl contention, motivation could play a key role here. Georgia State may find it difficult to maintain the intensity that fueled last week's surprise win, while Coastal Carolina will see this game as an opportunity to finish a tough season on a positive note.

The Chanticleers’ recent struggles have created some value, and I believe they can edge out a win in a competitive contest.

Take Coastal Carolina. Projected score: Coastal Carolina 27, Georgia State 24.

PLEASE NOTE: This play is on The Raiders plus the points (as per below writeup), not the Chiefs as indicated above. AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 3 pm ET on Friday.

Although the Raiders have been struggling, losing seven straight games and failing to cover in three consecutive contests, this is a divisional rivalry game that should bring out the best in them. Las Vegas will be looking for revenge after a 27-20 loss to Kansas City on October 27th and has historically played the Chiefs tough. In fact, the Raiders handed Kansas City an upset loss at home on Christmas Day last year, showing they can rise to the occasion in these matchups.

While Kansas City is a dominant 9-1 this season and favored in this spot, the Chiefs might not have the same level of motivation after a strong start to the year. The Raiders have plenty of incentive to battle hard, and their familiarity with Kansas City in close, hard-fought games gives them the confidence they can keep this one competitive.

This is a prime opportunity for the Raiders to show up in a big way, and with Kansas City potentially overlooking the challenge, the points should be enough to cover.

Take Las Vegas. Projected score: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24.

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Dallas is garnering significant betting attention as a home favorite following their impressive road victory over Washington last Sunday. However, this sets up as a potential letdown spot, particularly given their documented struggles at home this season, where consistency has been elusive. The Cowboys' offensive explosion last week felt more like an outlier, especially with Cooper Rush under center in place of the injured Dak Prescott.

On the other side, the Giants are coming off a low point after a disastrous showing against Tampa Bay. While their 7-point effort last Sunday was dismal, it could serve as a wake-up call for a team that has traditionally rebounded well from such performances. Third-string quarterback Drew Lock brings a fresh dynamic to their offense, and the Giants have added motivation, seeking revenge for a narrow 20-15 loss to Dallas in the season's first meeting.

Expect New York to fight hard in this divisional rematch, keeping it close and possibly pulling off the outright win.

Take New York. Projected score: New York 21, Dallas 20.

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm ET on Sunday.

Philadelphia enters this matchup riding a six-game winning streak and benefits from extra rest after defeating Washington at home last Thursday. That victory extended their lead in the NFC East to two games, easing some of the urgency as they prepare for a Rams team locked in a much tighter division race. The Eagles have also covered the spread in back-to-back games, tying their season-long ATS streak, which suggests a potential regression could be due.

Meanwhile, the Rams come into this game off a solid win in New England and remain just one game behind Arizona in the NFC West. This matchup carries added importance for Los Angeles, as three of their next four games are on the road. Notably, this is a revenge spot for the Rams after losing last year's meeting 23-14. With Matthew Stafford guiding a capable offense and the defense poised to make key stops, the Rams have the tools to keep this one competitive. The inflated spread further enhances their value as an underdog.

Take Los Angeles. Projected score: Rams 24, Eagles 23.

My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Despite the Giants’ ongoing struggles, which include five straight losses both SU and ATS, there’s value in backing them in this spot as significant underdogs. New York’s decision to release QB Daniel Jones puts the spotlight on Tommy DeVito, whose unpredictable style could give the Buccaneers’ vulnerable defense trouble. Tampa Bay enters off a bye week but has dropped four straight games and now shifts to the unfamiliar role of a road favorite.

While the Bucs have managed to cover the spread in back-to-back games, their defense has been a glaring weakness, ranking 31st in total yards allowed per game and 27th in points allowed. This matchup sets up as an opportunity for New York to stay competitive against a struggling Tampa Bay team that hasn’t proven it can consistently close out games.

Take New York. Projected score: Tampa Bay 24, New York 21.

My selection is on New England plus the points over Miami at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Patriots may own a disappointing 3-8 record, but they’ve shown signs of improvement in recent weeks with rookie quarterback Drake Maye providing a spark. New England has split its last four games and nearly overcame the Rams last week, falling by just six points. It also played Miami close in the first meeting this season, losing by only five points.

The Dolphins are coming off an impressive blowout win over the Raiders, their second straight victory and third consecutive cover. However, with a short turnaround looming as they head to Lambeau Field to face Green Bay on Thanksgiving Night, this could be a tricky spot for Miami. New England's improving offense and ability to compete in close games make the Patriots a live underdog in this divisional matchup.

Take New England. Projected score: Miami 23, New England 20.

Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

Detroit has been red-hot, winning eight straight games, including a dominant 52-6 win over Jacksonville last week. While the Lions have been impressive on the road, posting a 5-0 record away from home this season, the idea of them running the table on the road seems unlikely. This matchup comes just days before a Thanksgiving Day divisional clash against the Bears, which could make it a tricky spot for Detroit to maintain focus.

Indianapolis is coming off a gritty 28-27 road win against the Jets, led by a standout performance from QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts have shown resilience this season, as none of their losses have come by more than 10 points. With their home crowd behind them and Detroit potentially looking ahead, the Colts should have the opportunity to keep this game close.

Take Indianapolis. Projected score: Detroit 27, Indianapolis 24.

Mountain West Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Boise State at 7 pm ET on Saturday.

Wyoming enters this game off a 24-10 loss at Colorado State last Saturday and will look to rebound in its home finale. The Cowboys have just two wins this season, so they’re already out of the Bowl picture, but they’ll be highly motivated to close out their home slate with a strong performance. Boise State has been impressive, winning eight straight games and moving up to 12th in the national rankings, but they’ll face a motivated and feisty Wyoming squad that will be eager for revenge after a 32-7 loss to the Broncos last year.

While Boise State is rolling, Wyoming has shown the ability to be competitive at home and could make this a tighter contest than expected. The Broncos have been solid, but this is a tough environment for them to cover such a big spread. Wyoming should be able to keep things close and potentially surprise Boise State with a stronger-than-expected effort.

Take Wyoming. Projected score: Boise State 31, Wyoming 17.

My selection is on New Mexico State plus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 2:30 pm ET on Saturday.

New Mexico State enters this matchup in a slump, having dropped three straight games, including a 38-3 loss at Texas A&M last week. While the Aggies are winless on the road this season, they face a much less imposing opponent here and should find opportunities to get their offense back on track. This is their final road game before returning home for their season finale, which could provide added motivation to put up a strong effort.

Middle Tennessee State has been inconsistent and ineffective offensively, having failed to score more than 21 points in nine straight games. Their most recent outing, a 37-17 loss to Liberty, showed familiar struggles as they fell to 3-7 on the season. Even with extra preparation time coming off a bye week, the Blue Raiders' limited offensive ceiling remains a concern.

Last year's meeting saw New Mexico State come away with a hard-fought 13-7 victory, and while this season has presented challenges for both teams, the Aggies have shown they can compete against MTSU's defense. With the Blue Raiders continuing to struggle to generate points, the Aggies' ability to keep this game close makes them a solid underdog play.

Take New Mexico State. Projected score: Middle Tennessee State 17, New Mexico State 16.

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Syracuse at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Connecticut has been on a strong run, winning three straight games, including a solid 31-23 victory at UAB on November 9th. With six wins against FBS opponents this season, the Huskies are a much-improved team compared to their 2022 meeting with Syracuse, where they lost 48-14. Connecticut enters this matchup rested and will be looking to carry over the momentum from its recent success.

Syracuse, on the other hand, is in a tough spot after a long road trip across the country following a 33-25 win over California last Saturday. The Orange also have six wins against FBS teams and will wrap up their regular season at home next week against Miami. Syracuse may struggle to keep its focus after a grueling travel schedule, and Connecticut’s recent form gives them a good chance to keep the game close.

Take Connecticut. Projected score: Syracuse 27, Connecticut 24.

AFC North Game of the. Year. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday.

Pittsburgh has been on an impressive run, winning five straight games both straight up and against the spread, including a narrow 18-16 victory over the Ravens last week. The Steelers are currently 8-2 and hold a two-game lead in the AFC North. However, despite their excellent record, Pittsburgh’s offense has been inconsistent, and their games have often been decided by slim margins. Cleveland, on the other hand, has struggled with a 2-8 record, losing their last two games by blowout margins. While the Browns haven’t been consistent this season, this is a big primetime game for them, especially given the rivalry against Pittsburgh. Cleveland has historically played Pittsburgh tough in divisional matchups, and they’ll be motivated to keep this one close.

While the Steelers are the more successful team this season, Cleveland will bring extra intensity to this game in front of a national audience. Pittsburgh may face a letdown after their recent success, which could give Cleveland an opportunity to cover the spread in a close, hard-fought game.

Take Cleveland. Projected score: Pittsburgh 13, Cleveland 12.

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Eastern Michigan minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Eastern Michigan enters this game needing to win out to become bowl eligible, making this matchup crucial. Despite a tough 35-10 loss at Ohio last week, the Eagles have been competitive and will be motivated to bounce back at home. Buffalo, on the other hand, has already secured six wins and will be looking ahead to their bowl eligibility, while also facing a winless Kent State next week. The Bulls have played well recently, but their 2-3 road record this season suggests they could struggle away from home against a hungry Eagles team.

Eastern Michigan's defense will look to stifle a Buffalo offense that has been up-and-down on the road. The Eagles have had success at home with a 3-2 record and will draw confidence from last season’s 24-11 victory over the Bulls. With Buffalo potentially distracted by their upcoming bowl scenario and Eastern Michigan playing with urgency, I expect the Eagles to cover the spread in this pivotal matchup.

Take Eastern Michigan. Projected score: Eastern Michigan 28, Buffalo 21.

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Houston at 8:15 pm ET on Monday.

Dallas comes into this matchup struggling, having lost four straight games, including a lopsided 34-6 defeat to Philadelphia last Sunday. Despite their record, the Cowboys have a defense capable of keeping them competitive, particularly against a Houston team dealing with key injuries. Cooper Rush now leads the Dallas offense, and while he's not as dynamic as Dak Prescott, he brings stability and experience that could help the Cowboys improve their efficiency. Dallas will be motivated to snap its losing streak and build some momentum before facing Washington next week.

Houston is coming off a tough 26-23 loss to Detroit, falling to 6-4 on the season. While they get a boost with the return of WR Nico Collins, the absence of WR Stefon Diggs and DE Will Anderson will significantly impact both their offensive firepower and defensive strength. The Texans have been inconsistent this season, and while their record is better than Dallas', the injuries could level the playing field in this matchup. Take Dallas. Projected score: Houston 20, Dallas 17.

My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday.

The Seahawks enter this matchup fresh off their bye week, which provides a valuable opportunity to regroup and address some of the issues that have plagued them this season. Despite their 4-5 record, Seattle has been competitive in most games, with three of their losses decided by six points or fewer. The Seahawks should benefit from the extra rest and preparation as they aim to avenge their earlier loss to the 49ers.

San Francisco is riding high after a narrow 23-20 victory in Tampa last week, but that game highlighted some inconsistencies, particularly on offense, as they struggled to convert opportunities into touchdowns. The 49ers' defense has been solid but not invulnerable, as evidenced by allowing 20 or more points in four of their last five games.

Seattle has a history of playing divisional games closely, and with the added motivation of staying alive in the playoff hunt, expect them to put forth a strong effort here. Look for the Seahawks to keep this one close and potentially pull off the upset.

Take Seattle plus the points. Projected score: San Francisco 24, Seattle 23.

My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Vikings boast an impressive 7-2 record, but they’ve shown some vulnerabilities despite their success. Last week’s 12-7 road win over Jacksonville highlighted their offensive struggles, as they managed only one touchdown against a Jaguars defense that isn't among the league's best.

Tennessee, at 2-7, has endured a rough season, but its defense remains a bright spot. The Titans rank first in the league in total yards allowed per game, which gives them a solid foundation to slow down Minnesota’s offense. On the offensive side, while inconsistent, Tennessee has enough playmakers to take advantage of a Vikings defense that has been exposed at times, particularly in the secondary.

This game sets up as a classic “buy-low” spot for Tennessee, especially with Minnesota potentially looking ahead to tougher matchups down the stretch. The Titans’ ability to control the tempo with their defense makes them an appealing play to cover the spread in this spot.

Take Tennessee plus the points. Projected score: Minnesota 20, Tennessee 17.

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Miami at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Dolphins face a tough spot playing on a short week after traveling across the country following their 23-15 win over the Rams. While Miami has been one of the league's top offenses, the travel and quick turnaround could disrupt their rhythm, especially against a team with the defensive capabilities to limit their big plays. The Raiders, on the other hand, have had two weeks to prepare after their bye, which should help them get healthier and more focused.

Las Vegas may not have the record to show it, but they've been competitive in some of their losses, and the extra time off should allow them to make the necessary adjustments. They also have some motivation after getting blown out by the Bengals prior to their break. With Miami coming off a long road trip and playing on short rest, this game sets up well for a closer contest than expected, and I believe Las Vegas can cover the spread. A final score projection is Miami 23, Las Vegas 20.

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bears have struggled offensively in recent weeks, but their defense has been a bright spot, allowing 21 points or fewer in eight of their nine contests this season. That consistency gives them a fighting chance against a Green Bay team averaging 25.6 points per game, good for ninth in the NFL. While the Packers' offense has been productive, their most recent outing saw them limited to just 14 points in a loss to Detroit.

Green Bay has dominated this series over the years, including a 17-9 victory in their most recent meeting last January. However, this game will be played at Soldier Field, where the Bears will look to leverage their home-field advantage. Notably, all four of Chicago's wins this season have come at home, which could bolster their confidence in this critical divisional matchup.

While weather often plays a factor in November games in Chicago, the forecast calls for relatively mild temperatures and light winds on Sunday, which should make for ideal playing conditions. This could help both offenses find a bit of rhythm, though Chicago’s defense will still be a tough test for the Packers.

If the Bears can get any sort of spark offensively, they have a real shot at covering the spread or even pulling off the upset.

Take Chicago plus the points. Projected score: Green Bay 20, Chicago 17.

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Old Dominion plus the points over James Madison at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

James Madison has been strong this season, but their blowout victories over Southern Miss and Georgia State don't fully capture the challenges they've faced against tougher opponents. While the Dukes' win over North Carolina earlier in the season garnered significant attention, they may not be as invincible as their record suggests. Old Dominion, despite their 4-5 record, has shown resilience, particularly during their three-game winning streak before their loss to Appalachian State. The Monarchs' defense and ability to stay competitive in close games make them dangerous underdogs in this matchup.

Old Dominion's ability to stay within reach of tough teams and their balanced offensive attack should allow them to cover the spread, and I see them winning outright in what should be a competitive, hard-fought game.

Take Old Dominion. Projected score: Old Dominion 27, James Madison 24.

C-USA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Western Kentucky at 12 pm ET on Saturday.

While Western Kentucky has had success at home, including their recent win over New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech has been competitive in several of its losses this season. The Bulldogs may have struggled with consistency, especially on the road, but they’ve been competitive in close games and have the potential to cover the spread here, especially considering Western Kentucky’s vulnerability to letting teams hang around.

Additionally, Louisiana Tech’s offense has the capability to put up points, and with the spread at +9 or more, they may be able to keep it within a one-score game or possibly even pull off a surprise upset. Western Kentucky's defensive struggles in past games could be a concern here, especially if Louisiana Tech can execute offensively.

Look for a hard-fought game with Louisiana Tech staying within the number, potentially leading to a close finish.

Take Louisiana Tech. Projected score: Western Kentucky 31, Louisiana Tech 27.

My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

East Carolina, coming off an impressive 49-14 victory over Florida Atlantic, has shown improvement on both sides of the ball. This win showcased the Pirates' ability to execute offensively and clamp down defensively, helping them advance to 5-4 on the season. With the opportunity to inch closer to bowl eligibility, the Pirates will be motivated to perform well against a Tulsa team that has struggled, particularly on defense. East Carolina’s offense, which has recently found rhythm, is well-positioned to exploit Tulsa’s weaknesses.

Tulsa, at 3-6, is reeling after a heavy 59-21 loss to UAB. Defensive lapses have plagued the Golden Hurricane, and facing a surging East Carolina team presents another difficult challenge. The lofty pointspread reflects East Carolina’s current momentum and Tulsa’s struggles to keep up with high-powered offenses. Given the Pirates' recent form, they have a good chance to not only win but to cover this spread comfortably.

Projected score: East Carolina 45, Tulsa 24.

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

The Jets enter this matchup off a confidence-boosting win over Houston on Halloween Night, showcasing a defense that has kept them competitive, even amid recent coaching changes. With a renewed focus under interim leadership, the Jets’ defensive unit has continued to shine, setting a solid foundation for the team. Against an Arizona offense that’s performed well lately but benefited from favorable matchups, the Jets’ defense has the edge to stifle big plays and create key stops.

Arizona is on a three-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread but now faces a tougher defensive challenge than recent opponents. New York’s improving offense, meanwhile, gives the Jets the ability to take advantage of Arizona’s vulnerabilities on defense. In a game where the Jets’ balanced approach can shine, New York looks set to cover the spread with a solid all-around performance.

Take the Jets minus the points. Prediction: Jets 23, Cardinals 16.

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Saints enter this game with new leadership following the firing of head coach Dennis Allen after last week’s close loss to Carolina. Coaching changes often bring a jolt of energy, and with New Orleans seeking redemption in a divisional matchup, they’re well-positioned to keep this contest close. While Atlanta’s offense has been fairly explosive, New Orleans has the defensive depth to disrupt key plays and limit big gains. In a matchup where both sides know each other well, the Saints' renewed focus should help them stay competitive.

Atlanta, fresh off a win over Dallas, will be confident but must prepare for an extra-motivated New Orleans squad looking to improve after their early-season two-point loss to the Falcons. Even with the Falcons’ offensive firepower, divisional games tend to tighten up, and the Saints should capitalize on any defensive opportunities to keep it close.

Take New Orleans plus the points. Prediction: Saints 24, Falcons 23.

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm ET on Sunday.

The Colts, though coming off back-to-back losses, have the experience of veteran Joe Flacco under center, which could bring stability and playmaking ability against a talented Bills defense. Despite Buffalo’s recent four-game winning streak, the Bills failed to cover the spread last week in a narrow three-point win over Miami. The loss of rookie WR Keon Coleman due to a wrist injury leaves a noticeable gap in Buffalo’s offensive depth, which could affect their ability to stretch the field. While Indianapolis also lost Michael Pittman to injury, his lack of production this season means his absence may not be as significant.

With Flacco leading the offense, Indianapolis should be able to remain competitive, especially with Buffalo’s offensive depth potentially compromised. The Colts' defense has shown the ability to keep games close, and home-field advantage could play a role here in allowing them to stay within the spread.

Take Indianapolis. Prediction: Bills 23, Colts 21.

My selection is on Utah plus the points over BYU at 10:15 pm ET on Saturday.

Utah has struggled this season with a 4-4 record and four straight losses, but the Utes will be highly motivated for this rivalry matchup, the first meeting between the teams since 2021. Despite their recent setbacks, Utah’s defense has the talent to give BYU’s high-powered offense trouble. Containing BYU’s offense will be a challenge, but Utah’s defense, known for its toughness, has the ability to keep this game close, especially in a low-scoring, physical game. The Utes will be up for the challenge and should be able to limit big plays.

BYU, ranked in the top-10, comes in with an 8-0 record and a 37-24 win over Central Florida, but they’ve yet to face a team like Utah that can match up physically. While BYU is the favorite, the Cougars may have trouble pulling away in a low-scoring game, and the break since their last game could affect their rhythm. Utah’s defense, combined with their motivation, should keep this game tight, and it could come down to the wire.

Take Utah plus the points. Prediction: BYU 19, Utah 18.

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over Air Force at 9:45 pm ET on Saturday.

Fresno State, coming off a narrow home loss to Hawaii, will be focused and motivated to bounce back as they continue their push toward bowl eligibility. With four wins against FBS opponents, Fresno State has proven they can compete effectively on both sides of the ball, and they’re well-positioned to avoid a letdown in this spot. Their offense has been generally efficient, while their defense has shown the ability to keep teams in check. Given these factors, Fresno State's balanced approach and execution make them a strong play with several matchup advantages over Air Force.

Air Force, at 1-7 and coming off a decisive loss to Army, has struggled to find consistency on offense, and their defense has been overmatched in many games this season. Fresno State’s solid offensive unit should capitalize on Air Force’s defensive gaps, while their defense is well-equipped to contain Air Force's run-heavy attack. Fresno State has the edge in motivation, preparation, and overall performance, making them a solid pick to cover the spread.

Take Fresno State. Prediction: Fresno State 34, Air Force 20.

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Liberty minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 1 pm ET on Saturday.

Liberty comes into this game off a disappointing 31-21 loss to Jacksonville State, but this matchup presents a strong opportunity for a bounce-back performance. At 5-2, the Flames have been solid this season, and despite losing two straight games, they still have a much stronger overall team. Their offense, led by quarterback Kaidon Salter, has the potential to put up big numbers, and their defense has been solid enough to control a Middle Tennessee offense that has struggled at times. Despite the game being played in Middle Tennessee, Liberty’s high-powered attack and defense should be too much for a Blue Raiders team that sits at 3-6 and has shown inconsistencies throughout the season.

Middle Tennessee is coming off a 20-13 win over UTEP but has struggled to generate consistent offensive production this season. They have been plagued by turnovers and inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, which will be problematic against a talented Liberty defense. While the Blue Raiders have been competitive, they are outmatched here, even at home. Liberty should control this game and create enough separation to cover the spread, particularly given their offensive depth and strong recent track record in these types of matchups.

Take Liberty. Prediction: Liberty 38, Middle Tennessee State 20.

My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm ET on Friday.

New Mexico, coming off a high-scoring 49-45 loss to Wyoming, has shown the ability to move the ball offensively, despite their 3-6 record. While their defense has struggled at times, the Lobos’ offense has been productive, particularly in the passing game, and could find success against a San Diego State defense that has been inconsistent this season. New Mexico has the potential to keep the game competitive by exploiting weaknesses in the Aztecs' defense. If the Lobos can continue to put up points, they should be able to stay within striking distance—and possibly pull off an upset.

San Diego State, sitting at 3-5 and coming off a 56-24 loss at Boise State, has been struggling offensively and has been prone to defensive breakdowns. While the Aztecs have historically been strong, their current form suggests they may have trouble handling New Mexico’s offensive attack. The Lobos have a good chance of keeping this one tight or even coming out on top, especially given San Diego State's recent struggles. The high total of 66.5 points suggests a potentially high-scoring affair, which could favor the underdog.

Take New Mexico. Prediction: New Mexico 31, San Diego State 28.

My selection is on Rice plus the points over Memphis at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Rice, coming off a 24-10 upset win over Navy and a solid defensive showing, enters this matchup with momentum. At 3-6, Rice has been inconsistent on offense but is beginning to show signs of improvement on defense, particularly in holding Navy’s run-heavy offense to just 10 points. Their defense, which has been more disciplined in recent games, could help keep this one close if they manage to contain Memphis’s offensive weapons. While Rice’s offense may still struggle at times, a methodical approach could control the tempo and limit Memphis’s opportunities to score.

Memphis, meanwhile, is 7-2 and coming off a high-scoring 44-36 loss to UTSA, which highlighted both their offensive prowess and defensive vulnerabilities. The Tigers have a strong, balanced offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan, who can be explosive but has also shown inconsistency against well-prepared defenses. Defensively, Memphis has allowed opponents to keep pace, and their recent struggles to contain UTSA indicate they could be susceptible to letting Rice stay within reach. With Memphis likely focused on bouncing back, Rice’s improved defense gives them a good chance to keep the game close in what could be a tighter matchup than expected.

Take Rice. Prediction: Memphis 28, Rice 24.

My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Iowa at 9 pm ET on Friday.

UCLA, coming off a 27-20 upset win at Nebraska to snap a five-game losing streak, enters this game with renewed confidence. The Bruins have been inconsistent this season, particularly on defense, but their defense has improved significantly in recent weeks. With quarterback Ethan Garbers leading the offense, UCLA has the ability to sustain drives and capitalize on Iowa’s defensive weaknesses. Garbers' poise and ability to manage the game could be key in keeping the offense balanced, and UCLA will be motivated to build on their recent win in front of a home crowd at the Rose Bowl.

Iowa, at 6-3, comes off a dominant 42-10 win over Wisconsin, and their offense, led by quarterback Brendan Sullivan, has been much better than expected this season. However, Iowa could be in for a letdown as a road favorite after their strong performance against Wisconsin, and their tendency to rely on ball control could be disrupted by UCLA's improved defense. While the Hawkeyes have been solid offensively, their success has often relied on dictating tempo, and UCLA's ability to disrupt that flow could keep this game close. The Bruins will be motivated to prove themselves on their home field and can capitalize if Iowa doesn’t bring the same intensity as they did last week.

Take UCLA. Prediction: Iowa 27, UCLA 24.

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida Atlantic plus the points over East Carolina at 8:00 PM ET on Thursday.

Florida Atlantic has struggled this season with a 2-6 record, including a disappointing 44-21 home loss to South Florida last week, but they have shown flashes of competitive play and have the potential to keep this game closer than expected. While their defense has had issues, particularly against high-scoring teams, East Carolina has been inconsistent at times, especially against teams that can push them on both sides of the ball. The Pirates are coming off a dominant 56-34 win over Temple, but they've been up and down all year, and their defense is susceptible to giving up points when forced into shootouts. FAU's offense has shown signs of life, and their ability to move the ball through the air and on the ground should keep them within striking distance.

East Carolina is favored at home, but their record of 4-4 reflects their own struggles against teams with solid balance. FAU has the talent to hang around in this game, and with East Carolina’s defensive vulnerabilities, Florida Atlantic should be able to keep it close. With East Carolina coming off a high-scoring win and facing a team that can stretch their defense, I see Florida Atlantic staying within the number. Take Florida Atlantic (10*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with underdog Kent State as it hosts Ohio on Wednesday. The Golden Flashes remain winless on the season while the Bobcats check in off consecutive wins. Note that you would have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time Ohio defeated Kent State by 20+ points on the road. We've seen the Flashes hang tough at home in narrow losses to Eastern Michigan and Ball State earlier in the campaign. As they look to avenge a 25-point defeat in this matchup in Athens last year, we'll back the underdog Flashes at home. Take Kent State (8*).

My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

Ball State has strung together a few good games in a row after a rough start to the campaign. The Cardinals check in 2-1 over their last three contests including an upset win over Northern Illinois last time out. They have the benefit of hosting the latest instalment of the 'Red Bird Rivalry' on Tuesday and I look for them to give the favored Redhawks all they can handle. Miami-Ohio checks in off three straight wins with all three victories coming by double-digit margins. That's a big reason why we're looking at a double-digit pointspread in this matchup as well. I think we'll see some regression from the Redhawks offense in this game after they produced 38, 30 and 46 points in their last three contests. That should lent itself to a closer game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night in Muncie. Take Ball State (8*).

My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over Bowling Green at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Chippewas as they look to bounce back from three straight losses when they host the Falcons in Mount Pleasant. The Chips were drilled 46-7 in a road game against Miami-Ohio last time out. They had been playing reasonably well prior to that contest, going 2-2 over their previous four games with the two losses coming by a combined six points. Bowling Green is in a clear letdown spot following a big road win over Toledo in the Battle of I-75 on October 26th. The Falcons pushed Penn State and Texas A&M on the road early in the campaign but I think those results are still lingering and leave them overvalued at this point. Remember, this is also a team that only defeated Akron by seven points earlier this season. I believe this line will prove too high. Take Central Michigan (8*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Bears off last Sunday's heart-breaking loss in Washington. Chicago has yet to notch a road victory this season but it's been right there in all three previous tilts away from home. I think we learned a lot about the Bears in last Sunday's near-miss - mostly positive. The Cardinals rallied for a win in Miami last week, taking advantage of a listless Dolphins defense. The Arizona offense has been good in fits and starts with Kyler Murray making a ton of plays with his legs to keep the chains moving. I'm not sold on him doing it against an elite Bears defense on Sunday, however. I see this as a game where Murray gets outshined by rookie Caleb Williams and the Bears finally get their road victory. Take Chicago (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As far as losses go, I think the Raiders narrow defeat at the hands of the division-rival Chiefs last Sunday was a galvanizing one. Las Vegas was finally able to move the football a little bit with Gardner Minshew under center and I think it is well-positioned to build on that performance against a down-trodden Bengals squad on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. The Bengals are saying all the right things, indicating that they believe they can still salvage a season that is clearly spiralling down the drain following last week's blowout loss against Philadelphia. I simply feel they're going to have an incredibly difficult time getting up for the visiting Raiders. Las Vegas can play some defense while its offense should welcome the opportunity to face an opponent that has rarely been able to get a hand on opposing quarterbacks. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Raiders in a game that I project to go down to the wire. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Last Sunday's trip to Santa Clara was always going to be a difficult one for the Cowboys. They fell short, turning this into a virtual must-win game against the Falcons in Atlanta. I like the way it sets up with the Falcons coming off another win over the Buccaneers. Severely short-handed on offense, Tampa Bay was unable to keep up with Atlanta, noting that Kirk Cousins has turned in his best two games of the season in that particular matchup. While Dallas continues to struggle defensively and sorely misses the presence of Micah Parsons among others, I think this is a spot where the Cowboys can rise up and have their offense lead them to a victory. There's nothing overly intimidating about the Falcons defense. Even the listless Panthers managed to hang 20 points on them a few weeks ago. Dallas' schedule isn't going to get any easier with matchups against the Eagles, Texans and Commanders in succession up next. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I haven't been overly impressed by what I've seen from the Chargers so far this season. Their four wins have come against the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos and Saints and they haven't managed to string together consecutive victories since Weeks 1 and 2. I think they're walking into a hornet's nest in Cleveland on Sunday as despite their 2-6 record, the Browns have to feel that they can go on a run following last week's upset win over the Ravens. Cleveland gets its bye week next and the schedule doesn't really toughen up again until mid-December. There's reason to believe the Browns are capable of at the very least making things a little more interesting for their rabid fan base over the next month or so. The presence of QB Jameis Winston has given the rest of the Browns offense a boost. Job number one for Jameis will be taking care of the football on Sunday. If he can do that (and I realize that's a pretty big 'if'), I think there's a good chance Cleveland wins this game by margin. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Colorado State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

The wheels have come off for Nevada over the last couple of games, culminating with a blowout loss on the road against Hawaii last Saturday. This was always going to be a difficult season for the rebuilding Wolf Pack but they've actually held up better than expected with three victories to their credit and some close losses in the mix. With a very difficult trip to Boise to face the red hot Broncos on deck, getting a win here is important and I'm confident Nevada will accomplish just that against the Rams. Colorado State checks in off three straight wins. All three victories came in tightly-contested affairs and I can't help but feel a letdown is in order on Saturday. Note that Nevada will have revenge on its mind after dropping a 30-20 decision against Colorado State last November. Take Nevada (8*).

My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Iowa State is off to an 8-0 start to the season and finds itself in another smash spot at home on Saturday as it has had an extra week off to prepare for a vaunted Texas Tech offense. On the flip side, the Cyclones impressive offense figures to feast on a worn out Red Raiders defense that let TCU off the hook in last Saturday's wild 35-34 loss. The wheels have come off for Texas Tech over the last couple of games as they also dropped their Homecoming showdown with Baylor in a game that was no contest two weeks ago. Note that Iowa State is in a 'double-revenge' spot here, most recently dropping a 14-10 decision at home against Texas Tech two years ago. Of course, that was a far more limited Cyclones offense than the one that will take the field on Saturday. I think it's only a matter of time before Iowa State pulls away in this contest. Take Iowa State (8*).

Big Ten Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with the Spartans as they host red hot Indiana on Saturday in East Lansing. Michigan State put up a fight but fell a touchdown short against rival Michigan at the Big House last Saturday. A difficult schedule has certainly played a role in the Spartans 4-4 start to the campaign with losses against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon in the mix (they went 1-1 ATS in those contests). I like Michigan State's chances of surprising undefeated Indiana on Saturday. The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over Washington last Saturday - they hosted ESPN College Gameday ahead of that one. Indiana has drawn a very favorable schedule to this point - it avoids Oregon and faces Ohio State in a couple of weeks. The Hoosiers haven't really been tested in two previous road games against UCLA and Northwestern but I think they will be here. In the grand scheme of things, a tight battle might be just what the doctor ordered for a team that has delivered blowout win after blowout win this season. Take Michigan State (10*).

My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Buffalo at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the points with the Seahawks as they host the Bills on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo has won consecutive games but those came against the Jets and Titans. Here, the Bills will head out on the road, travelling across the country to face a Seattle squad that is feeling pretty good about itself after last week's blowout win in Atlanta. The Seahawks are the surprise leaders in the NFC West entering the week but are still considered by most to be a pretender. A win here would serve as a major statement and I'm confident we'll see Seattle give Buffalo all it can handle. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Dolphins are picking the right time to bring QB Tua Tagovailoa back into the fold against an injury-depleted Cardinals defense playing on a short week off Monday's win over the Chargers. Perhaps no team needs its starting quarterback as a talent elevator than Miami. We've seen the Dolphins take a massive step back with Tua sidelined with their offense looking punchless at best. Last week's game was served up on a silver platter for the Fins in Indianapolis but they couldn't get the win. The season may be circling the drain but there's reason for optimism this week. Arizona has risen up on occasion this season but has yet to deliver consecutive wins. Off its previous two victories it lost by seven points against Detroit and 21 points against Green Bay. This is a virtual must-win for Miami given it will head on the road for consecutive games against the Bills and Rams over the next two weeks. I believe this line will prove too short. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't like the spot for LSU on Saturday as it travels to College Station off last week's rout of the Razorbacks in Fayetteville. While the Tigers have reeled off six straight wins following a season-opening loss to USC, so have the Aggies. Texas A&M won but didn't cover in last week's trip to Mississippi State. Having climbed to a season-high number-14 in the national rankings, I don't expect Texas A&M to relinquish that spot at home. Note that the last time we saw the Aggies play at home they delivered a 41-10 blowout victory over then number-nine ranked Missouri. Take Texas A&M (8*).

Big 12 Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas Tech is coming off an embarrassing 59-35 home loss against Baylor last week, on Homecoming Weekend no less. That loss snapped the Red Raiders four-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce and hand TCU a Homecoming loss of their own on Saturday but we'll have the added benefit of grabbing a generous helping of points as well. TCU has managed to post consecutive victories just once this season, that coming in Weeks 1 and 2 against Stanford (who has turned out to be awful) and FCS squad LIU-Brooklyn. Since then, the Horned Frogs have gone 2-3 SU including consecutive home defeats at the hands of UCF and Houston. Here, we find TCU in a letdown spot following last week's ugly 13-7 win on the road against Utah. I like the fact that Texas Tech managed to deliver a tough road victory two weeks ago as it outlasted Oregon 28-22 in Tucson. That win was key after it failed to come through in a blowout loss at Washington State in its first road tilt this season. With an explosive, quick-strike offense the Red Raiders rarely find themselves out of a game and I'm confident they can trade blows with TCU all day long on Saturday. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Saturday.

I liked the way East Carolina didn't quit and ultimately made things somewhat respectable in a loss at red hot Army last week. The Pirates are clearly the better team in this matchup as they return home to host Temple. The Owls did deliver a 20-10 victory over a reeling Tulsa squad at home last Saturday. They're still just 2-5 on the campaign with their only other win coming against Utah State last month. The Pirates are a far better team than they showed in dropping consecutive road games in Charlotte and West Point. I look for them to take their frustrations out on a Temple squad that doesn't do anything particularly well on Saturday afternoon in Greenville. Take East Carolina (8*).

My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The wheels have come off for North Carolina as it just wrapped up a winless four-game stretch that included three games played at home. The schedule does ease up from here so there's reason to believe the Tar Heels can still turn things around and I believe they have the talent and coaching to do so. Meanwhile, Virginia has dropped consecutive games and just gave up a season-high 48 points in last Saturday's defeat at the hands of Clemson. The Cavaliers wins this season have come against the likes of Richmond (FCS), Wake Forest, Coastal Carolina and Boston College. I'm not sure they have any business laying points in this matchup, even at home. Take North Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Kennesaw State plus the points over Liberty at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

It's a matchup of undefeated against winless as Liberty travels to Georgia to take on Kennesaw State on Wednesday. The Flames are 5-0 but it's not as if they're dominating the opposition. Their largest margin of victory this season was 18 points and that was against an awful UTEP team at home. Coming off its bye week and having played only once since September 21st (due to a cancelled game at Appalachian State), Liberty feels like a team that's still trying to ramp things up. Kennesaw State scored only five points in last week's loss to Middle Tennessee State and that came on the heels of a 63-24 rout at the hands of Jacksonville State. The Owls are taking their lumps in their first season at the FBS level. This is arguably the biggest game left on their schedule, in primetime against a fairly high profile opponent. From here, the Owls will head on the road for consecutive games, not playing back at home again until November 16th. We don't need anything close to an outright upset to cash our ticket on Wednesday so we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Owls at home. Take Kennesaw State (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this situation sets up for the 49ers as they look to gain an ounce of revenge after losing the Super Bowl at the hands of the Chiefs last February. While Kansas City has the benefit of coming off its bye week, San Francisco gets the best of both worlds in a sense as it had a few extra days of preparation thanks to playing in last week's Thursday nighter in Seattle but doesn't have to deal with the possible rust off the bye. While it's by no means a must-win for the Niners, it is a critical spot as they look to avoid falling below the .500 mark. The schedule isn't going to get much easier with tough sledding ahead including upcoming road games in Tampa, Green Bay and Buffalo. The Chiefs aren't going to run the table this season - that I'm certain of. With that being said, after this contest there's not a lot of resistance until a road game in Buffalo in the third week of November. We'll lay the short number with San Francisco. Take San Francisco (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants had every opportunity to stage an upset against the Bengals last Sunday night but ultimately squandered those in a 10-point loss. While this isn't a bad matchup for the G-Men on paper given how the Eagles have struggled, I don't see it going their way. Philadelphia did manage to win last week's tougher-than-expected matchup with Cleveland and I do think that gives it some confidence moving forward. This is a 'get right' game for the Eagles defense against a familiar opponent and with the Giants losing LT Andrew Thomas to injury. I think Philadelphia will be able to pin its ears back defensively in this game and I'm confident the offense can take care of the rest, noting that A.J. Brown has made an obvious impact. When healthy, this Eagles offense can still be elite. Even with super rookie WR Malik Nabers back on the field, the same can't be said for New York. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Stanford plus the points over SMU at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Stanford is in free-fall right now having lost three straight games following a 2-1 star to the campaign. Not a lot better could have been expected out of the Cardinals during a three-game stretch that included games at Clemson, at home against Virginia Tech and at Notre Dame. Here, I like the Cardinal's chances of rebounding and giving SMU a serious test. The Mustangs are coming off an upset win on the road against Louisville two weeks ago (they had their bye last week). Make no mistake, that was a big win for SMU as a program, taking down a top-25 ranked ACC squad. Now SMU finds itself inside the nation's top-25 and I can't help but feel a letdown is in order, especially with this game sandwiched between the stop in Louisville and another road game against Duke next week. Take Stanford (8*).

My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Florida at 7:45 pm et on Saturday.

So maybe Vanderbilt is for real. I'll admit, I thought Kentucky would roll past the Commodores, who were in a massive letdown spot following the monumental win over then-number one ranked Alabama the week previous, last Saturday in Lexington. That didn't happen and now the Wildcats need to pick up where they left off in their most recent road game - a hard-fought win over Ole Miss in Oxford - in order to get their season back on track. I like their chances of going into the Swamp and coming away with a win over the rival Gators. Florida has been pretty much as advertised so far this season, going 3-3 through its first six games. I question how much the Gators have in the tank after leaving it all on the field in a 23-17 overtime loss last Saturday in Knoxville. Not only that but the Gators will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with rival Georgia in Jacksonville. I like the fight Kentucky has shown this season, despite the disappointing result last week. Take Kentucky (8*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Buffalo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Western Michigan had a tough schedule out of the gate this season, lining up against Wisconsin and Ohio State in consecutive weeks, on the road no less. Since then, the Broncos have steadied themselves by posting three wins in their last four games. Last week, Buffalo staged an upset win at home against Toledo. The Bulls have been wildly inconsistent so far this season. I think they caught the Rockets in a spot where they figured they could sleepwalk their way to a victory. That's just not how the MAC works. Any team is capable of beating any other team on any given day. Here, I expect Western Michigan to take a more serious approach than Toledo and ultimately prevail. The Broncos know they can't take anything for granted. After all, their two straight wins over Ball State and Akron came by a grand total of just 13 points. These two teams haven't met since the 2021 season, when Western Michigan went on the road and won 24-17. The Broncos would like nothing more than to spoil the Bulls homecoming weekend on Saturday. Look for them to do just that. Take Western Michigan (10*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over Army at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Army finds itself ranked in the national top-25 following six consecutive blowout wins to open the season. We'll fade the Black Knights on Saturday, however, as they've faced a ridiculously easy schedule so far including games against two of the country's worst FBS teams in Tulsa and UAB over the last two weeks. East Carolina started the season 2-0 but has dropped three of four games since. The Pirates come off their bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for Army's vaunted triple-option attack. East Carolina figures to be in a foul mood entering this contest after it was stunned 55-24 on the road against Charlotte last time out. Prior to that, the Pirates other two setbacks came against tough opponents in Appalachian State and Liberty, by a combined 13 points. We're catching a generous helping of points with East Carolina on Saturday, in a game that I expect to go down to the wire. Take East Carolina (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I'm not a big believer in this Virginia Tech squad. Yes, a night game in Blacksburg is a tough setting for an underdog visitor but I expect Boston College to be up for the challenge in this rivalry matchup. Note that the Hokies have taken the last two meetings in this series and neither game was close. Boston College checks in off a loss on the road against Virginia two weeks ago. Both teams will be coming off their bye weeks. I think the Virginia Tech offense is in line for some regression in this matchup after scoring 34 and 31 points in its last two games. The Hokies nearly upset Miami on the road two games back before taking their frustrations out on a reeling Stanford squad last time out. Wins over Marshall, Old Dominion and Stanford aren't all that impressive. While Boston College has dropped a couple of games, it has been right here in all seven contests. I'm confident head coach Bill O'Brien will have the right gameplan to attack the Hokies defense given the extra week to prepare. The schedule only gets tougher from here, look for the Eagles to put up a fight on Thursday. Take Boston College (10*).