My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Texas at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday.

While Texas' overtime victory over Arizona State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal pushed the total over, this semifinal matchup against Ohio State sets up for a much tighter and lower-scoring affair. Both teams possess elite defenses that have carried them through the season, and I expect those units to take center stage once again.

Ohio State's offense has been impressive in its first two CFP matchups, scoring 42 and 41 points, but it's worth noting that those performances came against defenses that don't measure up to Texas' caliber. The Longhorns' defense has been among the most dominant in college football this season, consistently shutting down opponents and dictating the pace of play. Even in their wild finish against Arizona State, Texas' defense was solid for the majority of the game, with lapses coming late in regulation and overtime.

On the other side, Texas' offense has shown flashes of explosiveness but will face its toughest test yet in Ohio State's defense. The Buckeyes have been a model of consistency, holding eight straight and 12 of their last 13 opponents to 21 points or fewer. Their ability to stymie both the run and pass ensures that Texas will have to work for every yard and point in this matchup.

With both teams excelling defensively and the stakes at their peak, this game has all the makings of a defensive battle where field position and time of possession are prioritized. Scoring opportunities will likely be limited, and the game flow should favor a slower, more methodical pace.

Take the under. Projected score: Ohio State 24, Texas 20.

Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Penn State at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Both Notre Dame and Penn State are coming off lower-scoring games in the College Football Playoffs, but this matchup sets up for a more offensively driven contest. Notre Dame's win over Georgia was influenced by the Bulldogs operating with a backup quarterback, leading to a conservative offensive approach. Against Penn State, the Irish face a much more explosive offense that has scored 30+ points in four straight games and six of its last seven.

Notre Dame has also been highly productive offensively, surpassing the 30-point mark in nine of its last 12 contests. While the Irish were able to dictate a slower tempo against Georgia by playing from ahead, this game projects to be a back-and-forth battle, encouraging a more open style of play. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score consistently throughout the season, and with the total set in the mid-40s, there’s plenty of room for this game to comfortably exceed expectations.

Expect this high-stakes matchup in Miami to bring out the best in both offenses.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn State 28, Notre Dame 24.

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Buffalo at 11 am ET on Saturday.

We'll take the underdog Flames in this bowl matchup, as they look to rebound from an 'upset' road loss against Sam Houston State to close the regular season. That defeat ended a three-game winning streak for Liberty but doesn't overshadow the Flames' solid season and their ability to step up when underestimated.

Buffalo enters riding a four-game winning streak, capped by a dominant win over Kent State back in late November. However, that victory came against one of the weakest teams in FBS, and the Bulls' recent success has likely lost its momentum due to the extended layoff. While Buffalo's back-to-back ATS wins may catch bettors' attention, the long break levels the playing field, and this spread seems to overestimate their advantage.

Even with the usual bowl game uncertainties surrounding opt-outs and absences, I believe Liberty is the more motivated and prepared team, and they are undervalued in this spot. Expect the Flames to take control and deliver an outright win.

Take Liberty. Projected score: Liberty 30, Buffalo 24.

My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Texas State at 4 pm ET on Friday.

We'll grab the points with North Texas as it looks to snap a five-game ATS losing streak in this bowl game matchup. While the Mean Green Eagles have struggled down the stretch, losing five of their last six contests outright, this 'nothing to lose' situation provides them with an opportunity to regroup and deliver a strong performance.

On the other side, Texas State enters off a high-scoring 45-38 win and cover against South Alabama in its regular season finale. While the Bobcats have had a successful season, I don't see the motivation or dominance to justify laying nearly two touchdowns here, especially given the nature of bowl games, where teams often come in with varying levels of focus and preparation.

Expect a spirited effort from North Texas to keep this one within reach.

Take North Texas. Projected score: Texas State 34, North Texas 28.

My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Georgia at 4 pm ET on Thursday.

This College Football Playoff clash at the Superdome sets up as a high-scoring affair. Notre Dame enters off a controlled 27-17 victory over Indiana, but that result was shaped by the environment—a home game in mid-December with fewer offensive fireworks. In this neutral-site setting, the Irish offense should shine, having averaged over 38 points per game this season. Notre Dame has been particularly consistent down the stretch, scoring 30 or more points in eight of its last nine contests.

Georgia, meanwhile, boasts a balanced attack that has averaged 33.2 points per game against one of the toughest schedules in the nation. The Bulldogs are coming off a gritty 22-19 win over Texas in the SEC Championship, but their offense is more than capable of exploiting opportunities, particularly indoors at the Superdome.

With both teams’ offenses carrying momentum into this game, and with Georgia’s defense showing occasional vulnerability against elite competition, expect plenty of points on Wednesday night.

Take the over. Projected score: Georgia 27, Notre Dame 24.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Oregon at 5 pm ET on Wednesday.

While Oregon has had an incredible season, I believe Wednesday will mark the Ducks' first setback as they face a battle-tested Ohio State team in Pasadena. The Buckeyes come in on the heels of a dominant 42-17 victory over Tennessee in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. That recent action should benefit Ohio State, as it allowed them to maintain rhythm and even add strategic wrinkles to their game plan.

Meanwhile, Oregon hasn’t played since December 7th, which could lead to rust, especially against a high-powered team like the Buckeyes. Additionally, this game marks the Ducks' first contest on natural grass this season, a potentially significant factor in the Rose Bowl setting.

Ohio State also has the motivation of avenging a 32-31 loss to Oregon back on October 12th. The Buckeyes have improved significantly since then and are primed for a statement performance here.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 34, Oregon 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Arizona State at 1 pm ET on Wednesday.

Arizona State has been red-hot offensively, tallying 49 and 45 points in its last two contests during its six-game SU and ATS winning streak. However, this matchup against Texas presents a much tougher test. The Longhorns, fresh off a dominant win over Clemson, boast one of the nation’s most formidable defenses, allowing just 13.3 points per game this season.

While Texas scored 38 points in its first-round victory, it has been far from explosive offensively, failing to reach 21 points in four of its last eight games. Arizona State's defense has been reliable as well, holding every opponent this season to 31 points or fewer. With both teams stepping up in competition and the stakes higher than ever, expect a more conservative and defensive-minded approach.

Take the under. Projected score: Texas 27, Arizona State 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Boise State at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

After a round of low-scoring blowouts in the first stage of the College Football Playoffs, I anticipate a much more competitive and high-scoring contest in this Fiesta Bowl matchup. Penn State dominated SMU in the opening round, cashing the 'under,' but that result was largely due to SMU's inability to contribute offensively. Boise State is a more formidable opponent and enters this game knowing it must be aggressive offensively to have a chance at the upset.

While Boise State has delivered three consecutive 'under' results, those came in games where it was the favorite, dictating the pace. Here, as a sizable underdog, the Broncos will likely lean on their playmaking ability to stay in the game. Penn State, meanwhile, has proven itself capable of putting up points in bunches, averaging nearly 34 points per game this season, including an even higher average on grass surfaces.

Both teams have the tools to exploit each other’s defenses, and with the stakes at their highest, this one has all the makings of a shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn State 38, Boise State 28.

Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Missouri at 2:30 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this matchup following 'under' results in their respective regular-season finales, but the setup here points toward a higher-scoring affair. Iowa has shed its historically conservative offensive identity this season, averaging 28 points per game and displaying a more balanced approach. That should carry over against a Missouri defense that has surrendered over 20 points per contest this season.

On the flip side, Missouri has been in strong form offensively, averaging 31.8 points per game over its final four contests, showcasing its ability to put up points against varying levels of competition. It's unlikely the Tigers will aim to slow things down, especially given their recent scoring momentum.

While bowl games often present the risk of rust due to extended layoffs, this matchup takes place under favorable conditions in Nashville, minimizing concerns about weather disruptions. The trends also support the 'over,' with Iowa hitting the mark in five of its last seven games and Missouri doing so in three of its last four.

Take the over. Projected score: Iowa 28, Missouri 24.

My selection is on Army minus the points over Louisiana Tech at 9:15 pm ET on Saturday.

Louisiana Tech closed the regular season in stellar form, covering the spread in five straight games, including a commanding 33-0 win over Kennesaw State in its finale. However, the nearly month-long layoff since that contest could hinder its momentum heading into the Independence Bowl. The Bulldogs' level of competition during that stretch also leaves questions about how they’ll fare against a battle-tested opponent like Army.

The Black Knights enter this matchup fresh off a challenging three-week stretch, including the AAC Championship Game and their storied rivalry contest against Navy. While Army fell short in both outings, it is primed for a rebound here. The loss to Navy, where it was favored by six but lost 31-13, serves as added motivation heading into this game.

Army’s disciplined, clock-controlling offense is well-suited to frustrate Louisiana Tech, which could struggle to adjust after its extended layoff. With the Independence Bowl taking place in Shreveport, Army’s experience and preparation advantage could prove decisive in this spot.

Take Army. Projected score: Army 38, Louisiana Tech 13.

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over N.C. State at 5:45 pm ET on Saturday.

East Carolina comes into this matchup off a disappointing loss to Navy in its regular season finale, a game that carried little weight after the Pirates had already secured Bowl eligibility. Before that stumble, ECU had been on a roll, winning four straight games (3-1 ATS) and showcasing the offensive balance and defensive grit that made it a tough out all season. With time to refocus and a prime opportunity to finish the year on a high note, the Pirates should be motivated and well-prepared for this in-state clash.

N.C. State’s season, by contrast, has been underwhelming relative to expectations. The Wolfpack salvaged a measure of pride with an 'upset' win over North Carolina to end the regular season, snapping a two-game losing streak. However, their struggles in a favored role have been glaring, as evidenced by their 1-5 ATS record when laying points this season.

With ECU boasting the ability to go toe-to-toe offensively and N.C. State struggling to assert dominance, this line feels inflated. Look for the Pirates to keep this one close and possibly spring the outright upset.

Take East Carolina. Projected score: N.C. State 28, East Carolina 27.

My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette plus the points over TCU at 2:15 pm ET on Saturday.

The Ragin' Cajuns enter this Bowl matchup seeking redemption after a humbling 31-3 defeat to Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship Game. That loss snapped an impressive stretch where Louisiana had won eight of nine games outright and covered the spread in five of its last six contests. This is a resilient group that has consistently performed well in the underdog role and should be motivated to deliver a stronger showing in the New Mexico Bowl.

On the other side, TCU salvaged its season by winning its final three regular-season games to secure Bowl eligibility. While that turnaround was commendable, the Horned Frogs may find it difficult to maintain that momentum, especially as they take the field as double-digit favorites in what might feel like an underwhelming postseason destination.

Louisiana's balanced attack and disciplined defense should allow the Ragin' Cajuns to hang tough against a TCU squad that may struggle to sustain its recent form in this setting.

Take Louisiana-Lafayette. Projected score: TCU 27, Louisiana-Lafayette 21.

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Syracuse at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Syracuse enters this Bowl matchup as a significant favorite, bolstered by a strong finish to its regular season with three straight wins, including a notable upset as a 12-point underdog against Miami. However, the Orange now face a cross-country trip to take on Washington State in unfamiliar territory, a potential recipe for a letdown in this mid-tier Bowl game.

The Cougars stumbled to close their season, dropping three straight games as double-digit favorites. Despite those setbacks, Washington State remains a dangerous opponent, particularly in this setting, having already proven its mettle on this field with a narrow 29-26 victory over San Diego State back in October.

With less pressure and plenty to prove, Washington State is primed to rise to the occasion and challenge Syracuse throughout this contest. The Cougars’ familiarity with the venue and their ability to keep games close make them a live underdog in this spot.

Take Washington State. Projected score: Syracuse 31, Washington State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

Georgia Tech enters this Bowl game fresh off two consecutive high-scoring contests, including a chaotic 44-42 multi-overtime loss to rival Georgia. However, those results appear to be outliers in what has otherwise been a season defined by low-scoring affairs. The 'under' has cashed in seven of the Yellow Jackets' 12 games this year, with three straight staying 'under' the total prior to their recent shootouts.

Vanderbilt also saw its regular season finale produce plenty of scoring in a 36-23 loss to Tennessee. However, the Commodores have generally struggled to put points on the board, with the 'under' going 5-0-1 in their previous six contests. It's notable that Vanderbilt hasn't scored more than 24 points in its last eight games, and its offensive ceiling remains limited.

With both teams looking to impose their will defensively and neither boasting a consistently explosive offense, I expect a slower-paced and lower-scoring matchup in this neutral-site Bowl game.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Georgia Tech 23, Vanderbilt 20.

My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas State and Bowling Green at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

This bowl game might not grab national headlines, but it has the makings of a high-scoring affair. Both Arkansas State and Bowling Green are offensively capable and defensively suspect, setting the stage for a shootout in Mobile, Alabama, where weather conditions are expected to be ideal.

Arkansas State has shown offensive consistency, scoring 27+ points in five of its last six games. However, its defense has been a liability, surrendering 30+ points on five occasions this season. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense found its groove late in the season, scoring 30+ points in three of its final four games before a season-ending loss to Miami-Ohio.

While both teams managed to deliver a couple of defensive highlights earlier in the season—Arkansas State limiting Michigan to 28 points and Bowling Green holding Texas A&M to 26—those performances feel like distant memories given their defensive struggles against more modest competition down the stretch.

With neither defense likely to offer much resistance and both offenses capable of taking advantage, this matchup should deliver plenty of points under the lights on Thursday night.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Bowling Green 35, Arkansas State 31.

My selection is on South Florida plus the points over San Jose State at 8 pm ET on Tuesday.

South Florida enters the Hawaii Bowl with a strong finish to its regular season, having unlocked its offense to score 59, 63, and 28 points in its final three games. Although the Bulls were upset as 5.5-point favorites against Rice in their regular season finale, snapping a two-game winning streak, they’ll be eager to bounce back in a high-energy setting like this one. The Bulls have been able to move the ball effectively and should have success against a San Jose State team that has struggled a bit down the stretch.

San Jose State did manage to close its regular season with a win and cover at home against Stanford, but overall, the Spartans covered the spread just twice in their final eight regular-season contests. With the competition tougher late in the season, the Spartans' offense and defense both began to sputter.

In what should be a competitive game, South Florida’s recent offensive surge, combined with San Jose State’s struggles, makes the Bulls a strong play to stay within the points and potentially win outright.

Take South Florida. Projected score: South Florida 33, San Jose State 30.

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Fresno State at 2:30 pm ET on Monday.

Northern Illinois looks to close its season on a high note after narrowly missing out on a MAC Championship Game appearance, having won three of its last four games to end the regular season. While the Huskies have dropped three straight ATS decisions, much of that can be attributed to their being overvalued late in the campaign. Here, they face a Fresno State squad that they match up well against, and I believe the number is fair.

Fresno State finished its season with a modest six wins, though one of those victories came against an FCS opponent in Sacramento State – a game in which the Bulldogs failed to cover. While the schedule included some tough opponents, it wasn’t an overly impressive campaign, and Fresno enters this neutral-site matchup in unfamiliar territory, traveling to Boise.

Northern Illinois has shown it can rise to the occasion, highlighted by a road win over Notre Dame earlier in the season. Expect the Huskies to use their physicality and balance on offense to take control and cover the spread in this contest.

Take Northern Illinois. Projected score: Northern Illinois 30, Fresno State 21.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Tennessee at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Ohio State comes into this game with something to prove after a shocking 13-10 loss to rival Michigan on November 30th. That disappointing defeat as a heavy 19-point favorite ended the Buckeyes' five-game winning streak, during which they went 3-2 ATS. It's worth noting that their only other loss this season came in a nail-biter on the road against eventual Big Ten champion Oregon, highlighting the quality of their campaign.

While Tennessee closed out the season with consecutive wins and covers, those victories came against overmatched opponents in UTEP and Vanderbilt. When last truly tested, the Volunteers fell by 14 points to Georgia on November 16th. That loss was part of a larger trend, as Tennessee managed just a 3-5 ATS record over its last eight games following a flawless 4-0 start both straight-up and against the spread.

Ohio State has faced the tougher schedule overall and brings superior talent to the table. The Buckeyes will be eager to rebound in a big way in this spot and I anticipate them overpowering a Tennessee team that hasn’t consistently delivered against top-tier competition.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 38, Tennessee 21.

My selection is on Texas minus the points over Clemson at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

The Longhorns enter this matchup looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That defeat marked Texas' second loss to the Bulldogs this season, accounting for their only blemishes on an otherwise stellar campaign. Notably, Texas has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation, which should have them well-prepared for this contest.

Clemson, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games, including two outright losses. While the Tigers deserve credit for their ACC Championship win over SMU, that came in a favorable spot following an emotional loss to South Carolina. This matchup is a different story, as Clemson steps up significantly in class against a Texas team that boasts superior talent and physicality on both sides of the ball.

With Texas eager to finish the season strong and erase the sting of its SEC title game loss, I expect the Longhorns to control this game from the outset and cover the number with room to spare.

Take Texas. Projected score: Texas 37, Clemson 20.

My selection is on the 'under' between SMU and Penn State at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

This total seems inflated given the context of the matchup. Both teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results, with Penn State riding a streak of four straight 'overs.' However, this early kickoff in Happy Valley sets up for a more measured, defensive battle.

SMU's offense has been electric, scoring 30+ points in all but three games this season, including a strong showing in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. However, they'll face a much tougher test here against a Penn State defense that has been one of the nation's best, holding nine opponents to 20 points or fewer this season. The Nittany Lions will be looking to bounce back after a rare defensive lapse in the Big Ten Championship, where they allowed 45 points to Oregon.

The two-week layoff for both teams could lead to some offensive rust early in the contest, particularly against Penn State's disciplined defense. On the other side, SMU's defense has shown improvement as the season has progressed and will likely benefit from the added preparation time to scheme against Penn State's balanced but not overly explosive offense.

Expect a lower-scoring game than most anticipate in this matchup.

Take the under. Projected score: Penn State 27, SMU 20.

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Notre Dame at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This total feels inflated for a matchup involving a stout Notre Dame defense. The Irish have been excellent on that side of the ball, allowing just 13.6 points per game this season. They’ll look to turn this into a physical, grind-it-out affair in their backyard, particularly after having three weeks off to prepare. While Notre Dame enters this contest on the heels of consecutive 'over' results, those outcomes may not be indicative of what we’ll see in this game, especially given the extended layoff, which could lead to some early offensive rust.

Indiana’s offensive success this season can’t be overlooked, but it’s important to note that the Hoosiers were held to just 20 and 15 points in back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State, two teams with defenses on par with Notre Dame's. Like the Irish, Indiana comes into this game following consecutive 'over' results, but those were against more offensively-oriented teams.

With both teams likely to prioritize defense and methodical play, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring outcome.

Take the under. Projected score: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 20.

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

I believe there’s an underlying SEC bias influencing this line, which provides value on Tulane. The Green Wave enters this matchup with a 9-4 record but comes off consecutive losses both SU and ATS, including a blowout loss to Army in the AAC Championship Game. That disappointing finish should serve as a motivator for Tulane, giving them a chip on their shoulder as they take on an SEC opponent.

Florida, on the other hand, closed out an up-and-down season with three straight victories, including outright upset wins over LSU and Ole Miss. However, both of those wins came at home, where the Gators have thrived. Away from The Swamp, Florida has been far less reliable, posting a 1-3 record on the road this season. While this game takes place in Tampa, Florida’s proximity might not be enough to overcome its inconsistency outside Gainesville. Additionally, the Gators may not be fully locked in for this less-prestigious bowl game, with their focus perhaps lingering on missed opportunities this season.

Expect a motivated Tulane squad to keep this game close, and don’t be surprised if they push Florida to the brink.

Take Tulane. Projected score: Florida 27, Tulane 24.

My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

While both teams have leaned toward lower-scoring games recently, this matchup presents an opportunity for offensive fireworks. The total has risen since opening, signaling sharp interest in a potential high-scoring affair.

Sam Houston State’s offense struggled for much of the season, but with nearly three weeks to prepare for this Bowl game, the Bearkats should have had time to make adjustments and incorporate new wrinkles. Their defense, while impressive down the stretch, holding five straight opponents to 21 points or less, will face a stiff challenge against Georgia Southern’s capable offense.

The Eagles have consistently found success offensively, scoring 24 points or more in six of their last eight games. While their defense has been solid, they did allow 20+ points in four of their final five regular-season contests, suggesting vulnerabilities that Sam Houston State can exploit.

The fast track of the Caesars Superdome should also favor a higher-scoring game, as both offenses aim to make a statement in this Bowl matchup. With both teams capable of contributing to the scoreboard, the setup points to a sneaky shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: Georgia Southern 31, Sam Houston State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Western Kentucky and James Madison at 5:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this matchup after high-scoring affairs, but the setup here points toward a lower-scoring game. Western Kentucky is coming off a lopsided 52-14 loss to Jacksonville State in the C-USA Championship Game. While that result might suggest defensive struggles, the Hilltoppers' defense has been serviceable overall this season, holding that same Jacksonville State team to just 17 points in their prior meeting. The more concerning factor for WKU has been its sputtering offense, which managed just 21 points or fewer in each of its final four games.

James Madison, on the other hand, is looking to rebound after back-to-back upset losses. The Dukes’ most recent game against Marshall ended in a 35-33 shootout, but that was an outlier for a JMU defense that has otherwise been solid this season. This matchup against a struggling WKU offense should give the Dukes an opportunity to tighten up and return to form on the defensive side of the ball.

Additionally, wet weather in Boca Raton may lead to less-than-ideal field conditions on the natural grass surface, potentially slowing down both offenses. Given Western Kentucky’s recent offensive struggles and James Madison’s defensive potential, this game is shaping up to stay under the posted total.

Take the under. Projected score: James Madison 24, Western Kentucky 17.

My selection is on West Virginia plus the points over Memphis at 9 pm ET on Tuesday.

The line has shifted too far in Memphis' direction, especially given the circumstances surrounding both teams. Memphis comes off a 34-24 win over Tulane, but their season has been inconsistent, finishing 6-6 against the spread. There's also a question about their motivation in this matchup. They had a solid win to close the regular season, but they didn’t make the AAC Championship Game, which raises concerns about their energy level for this bowl game.

West Virginia, on the other hand, is playing for pride after a disappointing regular season. Despite firing head coach Neal Brown and the uncertainty surrounding the interim coaching staff, the Mountaineers still have a chance to finish the season on a positive note. They performed well on the road this season with wins at Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati, which shows they are capable of stepping up when needed.

While Memphis beat Cincinnati in last year's bowl game, that was a team decimated by opt-outs, unlike West Virginia, which will likely have fewer players missing this time around. With the Mountaineers motivated to save face after a tough year and Memphis potentially lacking the same drive, I believe the line has moved too far in the Tigers’ favor.

Take West Virginia. Projected score: West Virginia 27, Memphis 24.

My selection is on the 'over' between South Alabama and Western Michigan at 9 pm ET on Saturday.

South Alabama has been firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring 35 or more points in four of their last five games. Their offense has been explosive, and playing in familiar conditions for the Salute to Veterans Bowl, they should have no trouble continuing to put up big numbers. Western Michigan, although they finished their regular season with three straight games going under the total, has been known for its high-scoring, fast-paced games earlier this season, including multiple 40-point outings. Given the Broncos' offensive firepower and their tendency to engage in shootouts, I expect them to break out of their recent scoring funk.

The game also benefits from favorable weather conditions and a neutral-site setting, creating an environment that favors offensive execution. With both teams capable of putting up big numbers, the total looks to be too low for this matchup.

Take the over. Projected score: South Alabama 38, Western Michigan 31.

My selection is on Navy plus the points over Army at 3 pm ET on Saturday.

Army is riding high after a dominant performance in its blowout win over Tulane to secure the American Athletic Conference title last Friday. While the Black Knights’ victory was impressive, it also sets up a potential letdown spot here. Army enters this rivalry game laying more than a field goal, a relatively rare situation that hasn’t always gone well for them in this series. The last time Army was favored by more than three points against Navy, the Midshipmen pulled off a 17-13 upset as 7.5-point underdogs in 2021. Moreover, the Black Knights have cooled off against the spread, covering in just two of their last six games despite their continued success on the field.

Navy, meanwhile, has had an extra week to prepare after finishing its regular season with a convincing 34-20 win at East Carolina. The Midshipmen started the season with six straight wins and remain a formidable opponent, especially in the tightly contested Army-Navy rivalry. This matchup has a long history of close finishes, with eight of the last ten meetings being decided by a touchdown or less. Navy’s disciplined approach and ability to rise to the occasion in this emotional game make them a live underdog once again.

Take Navy. Projected score: Army 20, Navy 17.

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Oregon at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, a closer look at their defensive profiles suggests this contest could be lower-scoring than expected. Penn State's last three games all went 'over,' but the Nittany Lions carried much of the scoring load themselves against Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland. Their defense remains a strength, having allowed more than 20 points just once in their last six outings.

Oregon, despite a 49-21 shootout win over Washington last week, has been remarkably consistent defensively. The Ducks have held six straight opponents to 21 points or fewer, showcasing their ability to limit scoring opportunities. Their methodical offense also contributes to game flow that often prevents back-and-forth shootouts.

Both defenses are capable of stepping up in big games, and with two disciplined units on the field, the scoring pace should remain manageable throughout.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Penn State 24, Oregon 20.

AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Army at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This AAC Championship Game projects as a hard-nosed affair. Tulane enters looking to rebound after its eight-game winning streak was snapped by Memphis last week. The Green Wave defense had been dominant prior to that setback, allowing just nine points total in its previous three contests, including a shutout of Navy’s triple-option attack—a potentially key factor in preparing for Army's similar offensive scheme.

Army's offense, which started the season strongly, has cooled off significantly. The Black Knights managed 20 points or fewer in three of their last four games, suggesting that Tulane's stout defense could have an edge. Defensively, while Army struggled in its final two games of the regular season, conceding 73 points, the unit has shown flashes of being able to slow down opponents and will look to tighten up in this high-stakes contest.

With both teams potentially leaning on their running games to control the clock and limit possessions, this game is likely to stay below the total.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Tulane 24, Army 13.

My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over New Mexico at 11 pm ET on Saturday.

Hawaii enters this matchup with little fanfare after suffering a blowout loss to Utah State in its most recent outing. However, the Rainbow Warriors have had an extra week to prepare and should be motivated to deliver a strong effort in their final home game of the season, especially with revenge in mind after a 42-21 loss to New Mexico last year.

New Mexico, on the other hand, is riding high after consecutive upset victories over San Diego State and Washington State, but the timing of the bye week may have disrupted their momentum. The Lobos are in a pressure-packed situation, needing a win to become bowl eligible. That pressure, coupled with Hawaii's potential to exceed expectations in its home finale, could make this a closer game than most anticipate.

Take Hawaii. Projected score: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and Hawaii at 11 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring performances, this matchup sets up for a more conservative outcome. Both New Mexico and Hawaii have had two weeks to prepare since last playing on November 16th, which should allow their defenses to tighten up against familiar offensive schemes.

New Mexico has shown flashes of explosiveness but remains inconsistent. Earlier this season, the Lobos managed only six points against Colorado State. On the other side, Hawaii has struggled to find offensive rhythm, scoring 24 points or fewer in five of its last seven contests. This has contributed to the 'under' hitting in six of the Rainbow Warriors' 10 lined games this season.

Given the extra preparation time and the tendency for these teams to stall offensively, look for a lower-scoring affair than expected in this late-night clash.

Take the under. Projected score: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27.

Sun Belt Conference Favorite of the Year. My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Marshall at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Marshall has enjoyed a tremendous season, currently riding a five-game winning streak and boasting an impressive 9-1-1 ATS record. However, this sets up as a challenging spot for the Thundering Herd as they stay on the road following an emotional upset win over Old Dominion last Saturday. Marshall's road performance has been less impressive, going 2-3 away from home.

James Madison, on the other hand, will be eager to bounce back after seeing its three-game winning streak snapped in a surprising loss at Appalachian State last week. The Dukes have been dominant at home, where they remain undefeated this season. Additionally, JMU has the added confidence of having won last year’s matchup against Marshall 20-9, a result that saw its defense shine.

The Dukes' strong home form and motivation to finish the regular season on a high note give them the edge in this spot.

Take James Madison. Projected score: James Madison 28, Marshall 17.

My selection is on UTEP plus the points over New Mexico State at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

New Mexico State is coming off a convincing 36-21 win at Middle Tennessee State last week, a result that marked just its third victory of the season. However, a closer look reveals that the Aggies' other two wins came by a combined 10 points, with one of those coming against FCS opponent Southeast Missouri State and the other against struggling Louisiana Tech. Now, as they wrap up their season at home in the Battle of I-10, the Aggies face a UTEP squad that should be eager to put up a fight despite its own challenges.

UTEP is fresh off a lopsided 56-0 loss to Tennessee, but that result was largely expected against a far superior opponent. Prior to that, the Miners had won two of their last four games and have shown resilience in spots this season. With this being their season finale, expect UTEP to come out motivated, especially in a rivalry game.

Take UTEP. Projected score: UTEP 24, New Mexico State 21.

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Central Michigan at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Central Michigan earned a morale-boosting upset win over Western Michigan in its home finale last week, but it does little to change the trajectory of a disappointing season. Sitting at 3-7, the Chippewas are out of bowl contention and face a challenging matchup against Northern Illinois to close out their campaign.

Northern Illinois has had an up-and-down season but still has plenty to play for, needing a win to secure bowl eligibility. The Huskies delivered one of the season's most surprising upsets with a victory over Notre Dame in South Bend earlier this year, showcasing their potential when playing at their best. While inconsistency has been an issue, Northern Illinois possesses the talent to take control of this game against an overmatched Central Michigan squad.

Look for the Huskies to handle business in their regular-season finale.

Take Northern Illinois. Projected score: Northern Illinois 34, Central Michigan 17.

My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Auburn at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Alabama took a step back last week, suffering a humbling defeat at Oklahoma that snapped their three-game winning streak. Back at home in the Iron Bowl, expect the Crimson Tide to come out with purpose, eager to put last week’s disappointment behind them.

Auburn, meanwhile, has built some momentum with back-to-back wins and covers, including a thrilling 43-41 upset over Texas A&M. However, the Tigers haven’t faced a road test since late October and have only played three road games all season, which could make this environment a daunting challenge.

Alabama’s defense should tighten up against an Auburn offense that relies heavily on big plays, while the Tide’s balanced attack has the tools to exploit Auburn's vulnerabilities.

Look for Alabama to control the pace and pull away in the second half, securing a convincing victory in this rivalry matchup.

Take Alabama. Projected score: Alabama 38, Auburn 21.

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over Georgia State at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina has struggled recently, dropping five of its last six games both SU and ATS. However, this represents a good spot for the Chanticleers to bounce back, as they face a Georgia State team that, despite a shocking upset win over Texas State last week, has endured a challenging season overall.

The Panthers’ victory in San Marcos was impressive, but it’s important to note that it followed a seven-game losing streak. With both teams out of bowl contention, motivation could play a key role here. Georgia State may find it difficult to maintain the intensity that fueled last week's surprise win, while Coastal Carolina will see this game as an opportunity to finish a tough season on a positive note.

The Chanticleers’ recent struggles have created some value, and I believe they can edge out a win in a competitive contest.

Take Coastal Carolina. Projected score: Coastal Carolina 27, Georgia State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Central Florida at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Both teams have struggled through disappointing seasons and have allowed significant points recently, but in this matchup, expect a more controlled and defensive-minded game. Utah, known for its solid defense, has been caught off guard by tough opponents, giving up 49 points to Colorado and 31 to Iowa State in its last two outings. Similarly, Central Florida has faced defensive lapses in recent weeks, allowing 35 points to Arizona State and 31 to West Virginia.

However, with both teams having nothing to lose and trying to finish the season strong, this should be a game where both teams focus on limiting mistakes and stepping up defensively. The result will likely be a lower-scoring affair, with both teams struggling to generate consistent offense.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Central Florida 20, Utah 17.

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Tulane at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Memphis enters this matchup without a chance to reach the AAC Championship Game, while Tulane has its spot secured to face Army next week. Despite Memphis’ offensive outburst in a 53-point performance against a struggling UAB defense last week, they’ll face a formidable challenge against Tulane. The Green Wave have allowed just nine points combined in their last three games, showcasing one of the nation’s top defenses. Ranked 17th nationally, Tulane has thrived on stifling opponents and controlling the pace of play.

Offensively, Tulane prefers a methodical approach, emphasizing time of possession and consistent, clock-draining drives. This style complements their defensive strategy and keeps games low-scoring. Memphis will find it difficult to replicate their recent offensive success against a much stronger opponent.

Last year’s meeting saw 52 total points, and with similar dynamics, another low-scoring game seems likely. Look for Tulane's defensive dominance and deliberate style to dictate the flow of this matchup.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Tulane 24, Memphis 17.

MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Kent State has endured a tough season, sitting winless at 0-11. While the Golden Flashes managed 17 points in last week’s game, they’ve been consistently stymied offensively, failing to score more than 21 points in five consecutive contests. Buffalo, on the other hand, has been riding high with three straight victories, clinching bowl eligibility last week. Despite the Bulls’ recent scoring success, they’re unlikely to need a big offensive output to handle Kent State in this spot.

Historical trends and current conditions further bolster the case for the 'under.' Last year’s matchup between these teams produced just 30 total points. Additionally, the game is set to be played in Buffalo under cold and windy conditions, likely hampering both teams' ability to move the ball effectively. With a struggling Kent State offense and Buffalo’s incentive to manage the game efficiently, a low-scoring affair appears likely.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Buffalo 27, Kent State 7.

Mountain West Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Boise State at 7 pm ET on Saturday.

Wyoming enters this game off a 24-10 loss at Colorado State last Saturday and will look to rebound in its home finale. The Cowboys have just two wins this season, so they’re already out of the Bowl picture, but they’ll be highly motivated to close out their home slate with a strong performance. Boise State has been impressive, winning eight straight games and moving up to 12th in the national rankings, but they’ll face a motivated and feisty Wyoming squad that will be eager for revenge after a 32-7 loss to the Broncos last year.

While Boise State is rolling, Wyoming has shown the ability to be competitive at home and could make this a tighter contest than expected. The Broncos have been solid, but this is a tough environment for them to cover such a big spread. Wyoming should be able to keep things close and potentially surprise Boise State with a stronger-than-expected effort.

Take Wyoming. Projected score: Boise State 31, Wyoming 17.

My selection is on New Mexico State plus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 2:30 pm ET on Saturday.

New Mexico State enters this matchup in a slump, having dropped three straight games, including a 38-3 loss at Texas A&M last week. While the Aggies are winless on the road this season, they face a much less imposing opponent here and should find opportunities to get their offense back on track. This is their final road game before returning home for their season finale, which could provide added motivation to put up a strong effort.

Middle Tennessee State has been inconsistent and ineffective offensively, having failed to score more than 21 points in nine straight games. Their most recent outing, a 37-17 loss to Liberty, showed familiar struggles as they fell to 3-7 on the season. Even with extra preparation time coming off a bye week, the Blue Raiders' limited offensive ceiling remains a concern.

Last year's meeting saw New Mexico State come away with a hard-fought 13-7 victory, and while this season has presented challenges for both teams, the Aggies have shown they can compete against MTSU's defense. With the Blue Raiders continuing to struggle to generate points, the Aggies' ability to keep this game close makes them a solid underdog play.

Take New Mexico State. Projected score: Middle Tennessee State 17, New Mexico State 16.

My selection is on the 'over' between Rice and UAB at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Rice has seen the 'under' cash in four straight games, but this matchup against UAB could break that trend. The Owls’ offense has been inconsistent, but they face a Blazers defense that has struggled all season, allowing 31 points or more in eight of their 10 games. That provides an opportunity for Rice to find more success offensively than they’ve had in recent weeks.

UAB’s defense has been porous, giving up 53 points to Memphis last week and showing an inability to contain opponents throughout the season. On offense, UAB had shown some life prior to last week, scoring 23 or more points in three straight contests. Against a Rice defense that has struggled to contain better offenses, the Blazers should be able to contribute their share of scoring.

With both teams out of Bowl contention, this game could lack defensive intensity, paving the way for a higher-scoring contest. Neither defense has proven reliable, and with favorable conditions for both offenses, this matchup has the potential to exceed the total.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Rice 35, UAB 27.

My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Boston College at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

North Carolina has been on an offensive roll, winning three straight games and posting impressive point totals of 41, 35, and 31 in their most recent victories. With one more win needed for Bowl eligibility, the Tar Heels will be motivated to keep their high-scoring ways going in this crucial matchup. Boston College, while struggling defensively, has been more effective offensively in recent weeks, scoring 37 and 28 points in their last two games. However, the Eagles have been porous on defense, allowing 42, 31, 31, and 38 points in their last four games.

With both teams showing the potential for solid offensive production and Boston College’s defense struggling to contain opposing attacks, this game sets up for a high-scoring affair. North Carolina is likely to continue putting up points as they chase Bowl eligibility, while Boston College will need to score to keep pace in a potential shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: North Carolina 38, Boston College 28.

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Syracuse at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Connecticut has been on a strong run, winning three straight games, including a solid 31-23 victory at UAB on November 9th. With six wins against FBS opponents this season, the Huskies are a much-improved team compared to their 2022 meeting with Syracuse, where they lost 48-14. Connecticut enters this matchup rested and will be looking to carry over the momentum from its recent success.

Syracuse, on the other hand, is in a tough spot after a long road trip across the country following a 33-25 win over California last Saturday. The Orange also have six wins against FBS teams and will wrap up their regular season at home next week against Miami. Syracuse may struggle to keep its focus after a grueling travel schedule, and Connecticut’s recent form gives them a good chance to keep the game close.

Take Connecticut. Projected score: Syracuse 27, Connecticut 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and UTSA at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Temple has been a poor offensive team all season, scoring 20 points or fewer in eight of its 10 games. In fact, the Owls have managed just 24 points combined in their last two contests. Last week’s 18-15 overtime victory over Florida Atlantic highlighted the Owls’ ongoing offensive struggles. They have struggled to generate consistent production, and their methodical style of play tends to grind games to a halt, which works against high-scoring outcomes.

On the other hand, UTSA has been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, with the 'over' cashing in their last five games. However, these contests came against teams known for their shootout tendencies, such as Tulsa, Memphis, and North Texas. The Roadrunners’ offense, while potent, could face some challenges in this matchup, as Temple is likely to limit the pace and control the ball in an effort to keep the score down.

Given Temple’s offensive ineptitude and UTSA’s potential to be slowed down in a lower-scoring contest, this game sets up for fewer points than we’ve seen in UTSA's recent matchups.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: UTSA 34, Temple 13.

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Eastern Michigan minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Eastern Michigan enters this game needing to win out to become bowl eligible, making this matchup crucial. Despite a tough 35-10 loss at Ohio last week, the Eagles have been competitive and will be motivated to bounce back at home. Buffalo, on the other hand, has already secured six wins and will be looking ahead to their bowl eligibility, while also facing a winless Kent State next week. The Bulls have played well recently, but their 2-3 road record this season suggests they could struggle away from home against a hungry Eagles team.

Eastern Michigan's defense will look to stifle a Buffalo offense that has been up-and-down on the road. The Eagles have had success at home with a 3-2 record and will draw confidence from last season’s 24-11 victory over the Bulls. With Buffalo potentially distracted by their upcoming bowl scenario and Eastern Michigan playing with urgency, I expect the Eagles to cover the spread in this pivotal matchup.

Take Eastern Michigan. Projected score: Eastern Michigan 28, Buffalo 21.

My selection is on the over between Akron and Kent State at 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday.

Akron comes into this game off a 29-16 loss to Northern Illinois, dropping their record to 2-8 on the season. Akron has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season, including against two-win FCS opponent Colgate, which points to potential for Kent State to score. Kent State, still winless at 0-10, has allowed 127 points over its last three games, showing vulnerability defensively. While Kent State hasn't been consistent offensively, they did manage to score 33 and 35 points in two home games earlier this season, indicating that they can put up points when facing a defense like Akron’s.

The rivalry between these two teams often leads to higher-scoring games, and last year’s meeting produced 58 total points. With both teams struggling defensively and Akron’s inability to shut down opponents, this matchup has the potential to hit the over. Both teams are capable of generating some offense, and the defensive weaknesses on both sides should create opportunities for scoring.

Take the over. Projected score: Akron 34, Kent State 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and BYU at 10:15 pm ET on Saturday.

While Kansas has seen high-scoring outcomes recently, including six consecutive 'over' results, this trend may not continue against a BYU team that has proven to be comfortable in lower-scoring, defensively focused games. Kansas’ offensive numbers have been boosted in part by matchups with less disciplined defenses, and BYU's defense presents a significant upgrade in opposition. BYU has allowed 24 or fewer points in three of its last four and seven of its nine games overall this season, showcasing the unit's consistency and ability to control the pace, which is vital against a Kansas team looking to push the tempo.

BYU's offense, though efficient, is typically conservative and likely to employ a slower tempo to limit Kansas' scoring opportunities. In a matchup that pits BYU’s defensive strength against Kansas' recent offensive outputs, a lower total feels like a logical outcome, as the Cougars’ defensive schemes should keep Kansas from establishing a comfortable rhythm.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: BYU 27, Kansas 20.

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Memphis at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

UAB has shown signs of offensive improvement, scoring 107 points over the last three games after a period of struggles. This uptick in scoring, coupled with Memphis' potent offense, suggests that both teams could contribute to a higher-scoring affair. UAB has averaged just over 30 points in its last three games, which is a stark contrast to its earlier season struggles, and Memphis has consistently been a high-scoring team, averaging 30+ points per game and ranking inside the top-30 in total points.

Memphis’ offense, led by an efficient passing attack, should have success against UAB’s defense, which has struggled to stop explosive plays. UAB’s recent offensive resurgence, along with Memphis’ ability to score in bunches, makes this matchup ripe for a higher total, especially when factoring in that last year's meeting ended in a 45-21 blowout in favor of Memphis, which shows these two teams can combine for significant points.

Despite Memphis posting an 'under' in their last game, the Tigers have regularly hit the over this season, and UAB’s offensive improvement gives a strong indication this could be a high-scoring game. Take the over. Projected score: Memphis 41, UAB 28.

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Old Dominion plus the points over James Madison at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

James Madison has been strong this season, but their blowout victories over Southern Miss and Georgia State don't fully capture the challenges they've faced against tougher opponents. While the Dukes' win over North Carolina earlier in the season garnered significant attention, they may not be as invincible as their record suggests. Old Dominion, despite their 4-5 record, has shown resilience, particularly during their three-game winning streak before their loss to Appalachian State. The Monarchs' defense and ability to stay competitive in close games make them dangerous underdogs in this matchup.

Old Dominion's ability to stay within reach of tough teams and their balanced offensive attack should allow them to cover the spread, and I see them winning outright in what should be a competitive, hard-fought game.

Take Old Dominion. Projected score: Old Dominion 27, James Madison 24.

C-USA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Western Kentucky at 12 pm ET on Saturday.

While Western Kentucky has had success at home, including their recent win over New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech has been competitive in several of its losses this season. The Bulldogs may have struggled with consistency, especially on the road, but they’ve been competitive in close games and have the potential to cover the spread here, especially considering Western Kentucky’s vulnerability to letting teams hang around.

Additionally, Louisiana Tech’s offense has the capability to put up points, and with the spread at +9 or more, they may be able to keep it within a one-score game or possibly even pull off a surprise upset. Western Kentucky's defensive struggles in past games could be a concern here, especially if Louisiana Tech can execute offensively.

Look for a hard-fought game with Louisiana Tech staying within the number, potentially leading to a close finish.

Take Louisiana Tech. Projected score: Western Kentucky 31, Louisiana Tech 27.

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Arizona at 10:15 pm ET on Friday.

Both Houston and Arizona have shown struggles on offense this season, making the 'under' an appealing option in this matchup. Houston has been particularly strong defensively, allowing 20 points or fewer in four of their last five games, including a 24-19 win over Kansas State in their most recent outing. Their defense has been the cornerstone of their success, and they’ll look to slow down Arizona's offense, which has been inconsistent all year. Arizona, on the other hand, has been struggling on both sides of the ball, especially after their humbling 56-12 loss to Central Florida. The Wildcats have lost five straight and are averaging fewer than 20 points per game over their last few contests, a trend that doesn’t inspire confidence in a high-scoring affair.

Both teams are also ranked outside the top-100 in points per game this season, further suggesting that this will be a low-scoring battle. With Houston likely focusing on defense and Arizona struggling to find consistency offensively, it’s reasonable to expect a game where both teams struggle to break 20 points. Given the total is set in the mid-40's, I’m expecting this game to stay well under that number.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Houston 21, Arizona 14.

My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

East Carolina, coming off an impressive 49-14 victory over Florida Atlantic, has shown improvement on both sides of the ball. This win showcased the Pirates' ability to execute offensively and clamp down defensively, helping them advance to 5-4 on the season. With the opportunity to inch closer to bowl eligibility, the Pirates will be motivated to perform well against a Tulsa team that has struggled, particularly on defense. East Carolina’s offense, which has recently found rhythm, is well-positioned to exploit Tulsa’s weaknesses.

Tulsa, at 3-6, is reeling after a heavy 59-21 loss to UAB. Defensive lapses have plagued the Golden Hurricane, and facing a surging East Carolina team presents another difficult challenge. The lofty pointspread reflects East Carolina’s current momentum and Tulsa’s struggles to keep up with high-powered offenses. Given the Pirates' recent form, they have a good chance to not only win but to cover this spread comfortably.

Projected score: East Carolina 45, Tulsa 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Miami-Ohio at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Kent State’s offensive struggles were evident in last week's 41-0 shutout loss against Ohio, continuing a season-long trend for a team that has yet to find the win column. Kent State has been ineffective in generating scoring opportunities, averaging just 15.1 points per game, and will now face a Miami-Ohio defense that has been particularly reliable this season. Miami-Ohio has held opponents to 21 points or fewer in each of its last five games, including last week’s 27-21 road win over Ball State.

Miami-Ohio's offense has been steady but unspectacular, often relying on its defense to secure wins. Kent State's offensive limitations should allow Miami’s defense to control the pace and keep scoring in check. Given these factors, this game projects as a lower-scoring affair. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Miami-Ohio 27, Kent State 10.

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Toledo at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

While Toledo has a reputation as a high-powered offensive team, recent games have shown a more moderate scoring output. The Rockets are coming off their bye week after a close 29-28 win over Eastern Michigan, and despite their offensive potential, they've scored fewer than 30 points in five of their last six games. Central Michigan, on the other hand, has struggled significantly on offense, managing just 20 points combined over its last two games and extending its losing streak to four.

The Chippewas’ ongoing offensive woes, combined with Toledo's recent trend of lower-scoring results, suggest this matchup could turn into a grind. Central Michigan's offensive limitations and Toledo's tempered scoring pace set this one up well to stay 'under' the total. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Toledo 27, Central Michigan 17.

My selection is on Utah plus the points over BYU at 10:15 pm ET on Saturday.

Utah has struggled this season with a 4-4 record and four straight losses, but the Utes will be highly motivated for this rivalry matchup, the first meeting between the teams since 2021. Despite their recent setbacks, Utah’s defense has the talent to give BYU’s high-powered offense trouble. Containing BYU’s offense will be a challenge, but Utah’s defense, known for its toughness, has the ability to keep this game close, especially in a low-scoring, physical game. The Utes will be up for the challenge and should be able to limit big plays.

BYU, ranked in the top-10, comes in with an 8-0 record and a 37-24 win over Central Florida, but they’ve yet to face a team like Utah that can match up physically. While BYU is the favorite, the Cougars may have trouble pulling away in a low-scoring game, and the break since their last game could affect their rhythm. Utah’s defense, combined with their motivation, should keep this game tight, and it could come down to the wire.

Take Utah plus the points. Prediction: BYU 19, Utah 18.

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over Air Force at 9:45 pm ET on Saturday.

Fresno State, coming off a narrow home loss to Hawaii, will be focused and motivated to bounce back as they continue their push toward bowl eligibility. With four wins against FBS opponents, Fresno State has proven they can compete effectively on both sides of the ball, and they’re well-positioned to avoid a letdown in this spot. Their offense has been generally efficient, while their defense has shown the ability to keep teams in check. Given these factors, Fresno State's balanced approach and execution make them a strong play with several matchup advantages over Air Force.

Air Force, at 1-7 and coming off a decisive loss to Army, has struggled to find consistency on offense, and their defense has been overmatched in many games this season. Fresno State’s solid offensive unit should capitalize on Air Force’s defensive gaps, while their defense is well-equipped to contain Air Force's run-heavy attack. Fresno State has the edge in motivation, preparation, and overall performance, making them a solid pick to cover the spread.

Take Fresno State. Prediction: Fresno State 34, Air Force 20.

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Liberty minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 1 pm ET on Saturday.

Liberty comes into this game off a disappointing 31-21 loss to Jacksonville State, but this matchup presents a strong opportunity for a bounce-back performance. At 5-2, the Flames have been solid this season, and despite losing two straight games, they still have a much stronger overall team. Their offense, led by quarterback Kaidon Salter, has the potential to put up big numbers, and their defense has been solid enough to control a Middle Tennessee offense that has struggled at times. Despite the game being played in Middle Tennessee, Liberty’s high-powered attack and defense should be too much for a Blue Raiders team that sits at 3-6 and has shown inconsistencies throughout the season.

Middle Tennessee is coming off a 20-13 win over UTEP but has struggled to generate consistent offensive production this season. They have been plagued by turnovers and inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, which will be problematic against a talented Liberty defense. While the Blue Raiders have been competitive, they are outmatched here, even at home. Liberty should control this game and create enough separation to cover the spread, particularly given their offensive depth and strong recent track record in these types of matchups.

Take Liberty. Prediction: Liberty 38, Middle Tennessee State 20.

ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the under between Miami and Georgia Tech at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Miami is coming off a 53-31 win over Duke, which was a high-scoring affair, but they’ve been more balanced offensively this season, and their defense has been solid overall, especially against teams that struggle to consistently move the ball. The Hurricanes’ defense has had some slip-ups but should be able to contain Georgia Tech’s offense, which has struggled to generate consistent points since late September. Miami’s ability to control the tempo of the game should slow down Georgia Tech’s attack and keep the game under the total.

Georgia Tech’s offense started the season strong, but it has struggled significantly since late September. Their most recent game was a 21-6 loss to Virginia Tech, and they’ve had difficulty putting together sustained scoring drives in recent weeks. While their defense has been decent, they simply lack the offensive firepower to push the score into a higher range. With both teams emphasizing defense and Georgia Tech’s continued offensive struggles, this matchup should stay under the total.

Take the under. Prediction: Miami 28, Georgia Tech 14.

My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm ET on Friday.

New Mexico, coming off a high-scoring 49-45 loss to Wyoming, has shown the ability to move the ball offensively, despite their 3-6 record. While their defense has struggled at times, the Lobos’ offense has been productive, particularly in the passing game, and could find success against a San Diego State defense that has been inconsistent this season. New Mexico has the potential to keep the game competitive by exploiting weaknesses in the Aztecs' defense. If the Lobos can continue to put up points, they should be able to stay within striking distance—and possibly pull off an upset.

San Diego State, sitting at 3-5 and coming off a 56-24 loss at Boise State, has been struggling offensively and has been prone to defensive breakdowns. While the Aztecs have historically been strong, their current form suggests they may have trouble handling New Mexico’s offensive attack. The Lobos have a good chance of keeping this one tight or even coming out on top, especially given San Diego State's recent struggles. The high total of 66.5 points suggests a potentially high-scoring affair, which could favor the underdog.

Take New Mexico. Prediction: New Mexico 31, San Diego State 28.

My selection is on Rice plus the points over Memphis at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Rice, coming off a 24-10 upset win over Navy and a solid defensive showing, enters this matchup with momentum. At 3-6, Rice has been inconsistent on offense but is beginning to show signs of improvement on defense, particularly in holding Navy’s run-heavy offense to just 10 points. Their defense, which has been more disciplined in recent games, could help keep this one close if they manage to contain Memphis’s offensive weapons. While Rice’s offense may still struggle at times, a methodical approach could control the tempo and limit Memphis’s opportunities to score.

Memphis, meanwhile, is 7-2 and coming off a high-scoring 44-36 loss to UTSA, which highlighted both their offensive prowess and defensive vulnerabilities. The Tigers have a strong, balanced offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan, who can be explosive but has also shown inconsistency against well-prepared defenses. Defensively, Memphis has allowed opponents to keep pace, and their recent struggles to contain UTSA indicate they could be susceptible to letting Rice stay within reach. With Memphis likely focused on bouncing back, Rice’s improved defense gives them a good chance to keep the game close in what could be a tighter matchup than expected.

Take Rice. Prediction: Memphis 28, Rice 24.

My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Iowa at 9 pm ET on Friday.

UCLA, coming off a 27-20 upset win at Nebraska to snap a five-game losing streak, enters this game with renewed confidence. The Bruins have been inconsistent this season, particularly on defense, but their defense has improved significantly in recent weeks. With quarterback Ethan Garbers leading the offense, UCLA has the ability to sustain drives and capitalize on Iowa’s defensive weaknesses. Garbers' poise and ability to manage the game could be key in keeping the offense balanced, and UCLA will be motivated to build on their recent win in front of a home crowd at the Rose Bowl.

Iowa, at 6-3, comes off a dominant 42-10 win over Wisconsin, and their offense, led by quarterback Brendan Sullivan, has been much better than expected this season. However, Iowa could be in for a letdown as a road favorite after their strong performance against Wisconsin, and their tendency to rely on ball control could be disrupted by UCLA's improved defense. While the Hawkeyes have been solid offensively, their success has often relied on dictating tempo, and UCLA's ability to disrupt that flow could keep this game close. The Bruins will be motivated to prove themselves on their home field and can capitalize if Iowa doesn’t bring the same intensity as they did last week.

Take UCLA. Prediction: Iowa 27, UCLA 24.

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida Atlantic plus the points over East Carolina at 8:00 PM ET on Thursday.

Florida Atlantic has struggled this season with a 2-6 record, including a disappointing 44-21 home loss to South Florida last week, but they have shown flashes of competitive play and have the potential to keep this game closer than expected. While their defense has had issues, particularly against high-scoring teams, East Carolina has been inconsistent at times, especially against teams that can push them on both sides of the ball. The Pirates are coming off a dominant 56-34 win over Temple, but they've been up and down all year, and their defense is susceptible to giving up points when forced into shootouts. FAU's offense has shown signs of life, and their ability to move the ball through the air and on the ground should keep them within striking distance.

East Carolina is favored at home, but their record of 4-4 reflects their own struggles against teams with solid balance. FAU has the talent to hang around in this game, and with East Carolina’s defensive vulnerabilities, Florida Atlantic should be able to keep it close. With East Carolina coming off a high-scoring win and facing a team that can stretch their defense, I see Florida Atlantic staying within the number. Take Florida Atlantic (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Ohio and Kent State at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

This series has produced some high-scoring games in recent years with all five matchups dating back to 2018 eclipsing the total we're working with on Wednesday. Kent State is obviously down bad this season, having yet to win a game. If it is going to end that losing streak with a stunning upset on Wednesday it will need to get its offense rolling. The good news is, we've seen the Golden Flashes offense thrive at home previously this season, scoring 33 and 35 points in losses to Eastern Michigan and Ball State. The problem here is that Kent State will need to keep Ohio's offense under wraps and that figures to be a tall task with the Bobcats offense seemingly getting better each week with dual-threat QB Parker Navarro taking over at times. Ohio figures to be able to run its offense without much resistance here, also noting that Kent State has drawn as few as 7,322 fans to its home games this season. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this contest. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with underdog Kent State as it hosts Ohio on Wednesday. The Golden Flashes remain winless on the season while the Bobcats check in off consecutive wins. Note that you would have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time Ohio defeated Kent State by 20+ points on the road. We've seen the Flashes hang tough at home in narrow losses to Eastern Michigan and Ball State earlier in the campaign. As they look to avenge a 25-point defeat in this matchup in Athens last year, we'll back the underdog Flashes at home. Take Kent State (8*).

My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

Ball State has strung together a few good games in a row after a rough start to the campaign. The Cardinals check in 2-1 over their last three contests including an upset win over Northern Illinois last time out. They have the benefit of hosting the latest instalment of the 'Red Bird Rivalry' on Tuesday and I look for them to give the favored Redhawks all they can handle. Miami-Ohio checks in off three straight wins with all three victories coming by double-digit margins. That's a big reason why we're looking at a double-digit pointspread in this matchup as well. I think we'll see some regression from the Redhawks offense in this game after they produced 38, 30 and 46 points in their last three contests. That should lent itself to a closer game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night in Muncie. Take Ball State (8*).

My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over Bowling Green at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Chippewas as they look to bounce back from three straight losses when they host the Falcons in Mount Pleasant. The Chips were drilled 46-7 in a road game against Miami-Ohio last time out. They had been playing reasonably well prior to that contest, going 2-2 over their previous four games with the two losses coming by a combined six points. Bowling Green is in a clear letdown spot following a big road win over Toledo in the Battle of I-75 on October 26th. The Falcons pushed Penn State and Texas A&M on the road early in the campaign but I think those results are still lingering and leave them overvalued at this point. Remember, this is also a team that only defeated Akron by seven points earlier this season. I believe this line will prove too high. Take Central Michigan (8*).

My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Colorado State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

The wheels have come off for Nevada over the last couple of games, culminating with a blowout loss on the road against Hawaii last Saturday. This was always going to be a difficult season for the rebuilding Wolf Pack but they've actually held up better than expected with three victories to their credit and some close losses in the mix. With a very difficult trip to Boise to face the red hot Broncos on deck, getting a win here is important and I'm confident Nevada will accomplish just that against the Rams. Colorado State checks in off three straight wins. All three victories came in tightly-contested affairs and I can't help but feel a letdown is in order on Saturday. Note that Nevada will have revenge on its mind after dropping a 30-20 decision against Colorado State last November. Take Nevada (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Massachusetts and Mississippi State at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

This is a true 'get right' game for Mississippi State as it enters riding a seven-game losing streak having taken its lumps in SEC play. I do think the Bulldogs defense will thrive in this matchup but I'm not convinced its sputtering offense will follow suit. We have seen Mississippi State's offense put up some points in recent weeks but that was largely game-script related as it was trailing by big margins in those contests and facing defenses that were in let-up mode. We're likely to see the opposite game script unfold here with the Bulldogs installed as big home favorites. Massachusetts is certainly accustomed to being overmatched this season. It has won only twice including a blowout victory over FCS squad Wagner last week. While the end results didn't go in their favor, I did feel the Minutemen at least kept things respectable (relatively speaking) in notable losses to Toledo, Northern Illinois and Missouri (arguably the three most difficult opponents on their schedule to this point). Offensively, UMass has scored more than 23 points on only two occasions this season and both came against FCS opponents. This probably isn't a game you want to sit down and watch on Saturday but we'll look to end up on the right side of the total nonetheless. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Iowa State is off to an 8-0 start to the season and finds itself in another smash spot at home on Saturday as it has had an extra week off to prepare for a vaunted Texas Tech offense. On the flip side, the Cyclones impressive offense figures to feast on a worn out Red Raiders defense that let TCU off the hook in last Saturday's wild 35-34 loss. The wheels have come off for Texas Tech over the last couple of games as they also dropped their Homecoming showdown with Baylor in a game that was no contest two weeks ago. Note that Iowa State is in a 'double-revenge' spot here, most recently dropping a 14-10 decision at home against Texas Tech two years ago. Of course, that was a far more limited Cyclones offense than the one that will take the field on Saturday. I think it's only a matter of time before Iowa State pulls away in this contest. Take Iowa State (8*).

Big Ten Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with the Spartans as they host red hot Indiana on Saturday in East Lansing. Michigan State put up a fight but fell a touchdown short against rival Michigan at the Big House last Saturday. A difficult schedule has certainly played a role in the Spartans 4-4 start to the campaign with losses against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon in the mix (they went 1-1 ATS in those contests). I like Michigan State's chances of surprising undefeated Indiana on Saturday. The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over Washington last Saturday - they hosted ESPN College Gameday ahead of that one. Indiana has drawn a very favorable schedule to this point - it avoids Oregon and faces Ohio State in a couple of weeks. The Hoosiers haven't really been tested in two previous road games against UCLA and Northwestern but I think they will be here. In the grand scheme of things, a tight battle might be just what the doctor ordered for a team that has delivered blowout win after blowout win this season. Take Michigan State (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Duke and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I think Duke has a shot at making this game competitive and to do that it will have to stay up defensively, just as it has all season. The Blue Devils have quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the country on their way to a 6-2 record. Duke has allowed more than 24 points just once and that came thanks to overtime in last week's 28-27 defeat against SMU (it gave up only 21 points in regulation time). Offensively, the Blue Devils have been fairly limited. They've been held to 26 points or fewer in regulation time in seven of their eight contests and don't figure to suddenly break out on the road against a talented Miami defense. The name of the game for Duke will be taking care of the football and effectively shortening proceedings and that certainly works in our favor with the 'under'. Miami has been a juggernaut offensively and the path to running the table in the regular season is clear. I do expect the Hurricanes to at least face some resistance here, however, after scoring 36 points or more in all eight games this season. Of note, Miami's schedule has been very forgiving to this point with few capable defensive foes. I do think the potential is there for a letdown of sorts here after last week's blowout win under the lights against rival Florida State. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego State and Boise State at 8 pm et on Friday.

Boise State enters this matchup off consecutive 'under' results against Hawaii and UNLV. Last Friday's showdown with UNLV was projected to be a wild shootout and it looked like it was setting up that way until the Broncos took the air out of the football in the fourth quarter. We know this Boise State team can score with the best of them and I think we see it get pushed a little bit against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs are certainly not known for their offense but they have shown improvement in that department over the course of the season. They enter off a 29-26 loss at home against Washington State last Saturday. With just two victories over FBS opponents so far this season, they're certainly facing an uphill battle with five games remaining on the schedule. With that being said, there are winnable contests ahead including home games against New Mexico and Air Force and a road tilt against Utah State. But I digress. Here, I think we see San Diego State open up the playbook as it projects to play from behind for much of the night. Boise State is by no means a defensive powerhouse, ranking 202nd in the country in total yards allowed per game and 208th in points allowed per contest. The most recent meeting between these two teams produced 65 points last September. Take the over (8*).

Conference-USA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Jacksonville State and Liberty at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Jacksonville State has been running up the score on its recent opponents, reeling off four straight wins while scoring 42 points or more in all four contests. Keep in mind, those games came against the likes of Southern Miss, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee (combined 6-25 record). It figures to face a much more difficult challenge as it travels to Lynchburg to take on Liberty on Wednesday. The Flames will be in a foul mood after losing to then-winless Kennesaw State last week. Liberty hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years - forced to rely a little more on its defense to come up big and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I do think the Flames match up well against the high-powered Gamecocks offense. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams produced only 44 total points. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Mexico State and Florida International at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The perception is that these two teams are very bad and that along with the fact that Florida International was involved in a game that totalled just 17 points last week is weighing heavily on this total. I think there's a good chance we see the Panthers offense bounce back after getting bogged down against a good Sam Houston State defense last week. New Mexico State has allowed 30 points or more in six of seven games so far this season. The Aggies do come off their bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for a very beatable FIU defense. New Mexico State has shown flashes of brilliance offensively this season, most notably in a wild 50-40 loss against in-state rival New Mexico and last time out in a 33-30 double-overtime win over Louisiana Tech. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 51 points. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't like the spot for LSU on Saturday as it travels to College Station off last week's rout of the Razorbacks in Fayetteville. While the Tigers have reeled off six straight wins following a season-opening loss to USC, so have the Aggies. Texas A&M won but didn't cover in last week's trip to Mississippi State. Having climbed to a season-high number-14 in the national rankings, I don't expect Texas A&M to relinquish that spot at home. Note that the last time we saw the Aggies play at home they delivered a 41-10 blowout victory over then number-nine ranked Missouri. Take Texas A&M (8*).

Big 12 Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas Tech is coming off an embarrassing 59-35 home loss against Baylor last week, on Homecoming Weekend no less. That loss snapped the Red Raiders four-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce and hand TCU a Homecoming loss of their own on Saturday but we'll have the added benefit of grabbing a generous helping of points as well. TCU has managed to post consecutive victories just once this season, that coming in Weeks 1 and 2 against Stanford (who has turned out to be awful) and FCS squad LIU-Brooklyn. Since then, the Horned Frogs have gone 2-3 SU including consecutive home defeats at the hands of UCF and Houston. Here, we find TCU in a letdown spot following last week's ugly 13-7 win on the road against Utah. I like the fact that Texas Tech managed to deliver a tough road victory two weeks ago as it outlasted Oregon 28-22 in Tucson. That win was key after it failed to come through in a blowout loss at Washington State in its first road tilt this season. With an explosive, quick-strike offense the Red Raiders rarely find themselves out of a game and I'm confident they can trade blows with TCU all day long on Saturday. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Saturday.

I liked the way East Carolina didn't quit and ultimately made things somewhat respectable in a loss at red hot Army last week. The Pirates are clearly the better team in this matchup as they return home to host Temple. The Owls did deliver a 20-10 victory over a reeling Tulsa squad at home last Saturday. They're still just 2-5 on the campaign with their only other win coming against Utah State last month. The Pirates are a far better team than they showed in dropping consecutive road games in Charlotte and West Point. I look for them to take their frustrations out on a Temple squad that doesn't do anything particularly well on Saturday afternoon in Greenville. Take East Carolina (8*).

My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The wheels have come off for North Carolina as it just wrapped up a winless four-game stretch that included three games played at home. The schedule does ease up from here so there's reason to believe the Tar Heels can still turn things around and I believe they have the talent and coaching to do so. Meanwhile, Virginia has dropped consecutive games and just gave up a season-high 48 points in last Saturday's defeat at the hands of Clemson. The Cavaliers wins this season have come against the likes of Richmond (FCS), Wake Forest, Coastal Carolina and Boston College. I'm not sure they have any business laying points in this matchup, even at home. Take North Carolina (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and USC at 11 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter this Big Ten showdown riding three-game losing streaks. Both teams have to realize that they need to get back to doing what made them successful earlier in the season and that means playing some defense. Rutgers allowed 35 points in last Saturday's wild, high-scoring defeat in Piscataway. That came on the heels of a game in which the Scarlet Knights allowed 42 points in a blowout loss to Wisconsin. Remember, this is a team that had allowed 23 points or less in each of its first five games this season. With a limited offense, the Scarlet Knights know that they can ill afford to continue to get involved in shootouts. It's a similar story for USC, even if it does possess a high-powered offense. The Trojans gave up a grand total of 41 points in their first three victories this season - part of a 3-1 start. Since then they've been trampled for 24, 33 and 29 points in three consecutive tightly-contested defeats. Expect a return to fundamentals from USC in this winnable game at home on Friday. Take the under (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Southern and Old Dominion at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We've been high on the Old Dominion defense all season - remember we cashed with the Monarchs as a big underdog against South Carolina way back in Week 1. While there have been some bumps in the road, ODU has steadied itself to deliver consecutive low-scoring victories in-conference to move to 2-1 in Sun Belt play, setting up this game for first place in the East Division. Colton Joseph has taken over from Grant Wilson at quarterback, effectively settling the Monarchs offense. This is very much a run-first attack at this point with Joseph leading the team in rushing in each of the last two games. Georgia Southern has gotten hot since a slow start, reeling off three straight victories. Surprisingly, it has been the Eagles defense that has paved the way, holding their three Sun Belt opponents to 21, 23 and 14 points (all victories). As much as the Eagles would like to open things up offensively in this matchup, I'm not sure they'll see a ton of open field. This matchup produced a slugfest last year with Old Dominion going on the road and winning 20-17. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Kennesaw State plus the points over Liberty at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

It's a matchup of undefeated against winless as Liberty travels to Georgia to take on Kennesaw State on Wednesday. The Flames are 5-0 but it's not as if they're dominating the opposition. Their largest margin of victory this season was 18 points and that was against an awful UTEP team at home. Coming off its bye week and having played only once since September 21st (due to a cancelled game at Appalachian State), Liberty feels like a team that's still trying to ramp things up. Kennesaw State scored only five points in last week's loss to Middle Tennessee State and that came on the heels of a 63-24 rout at the hands of Jacksonville State. The Owls are taking their lumps in their first season at the FBS level. This is arguably the biggest game left on their schedule, in primetime against a fairly high profile opponent. From here, the Owls will head on the road for consecutive games, not playing back at home again until November 16th. We don't need anything close to an outright upset to cash our ticket on Wednesday so we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Owls at home. Take Kennesaw State (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and Louisiana Tech at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We got the result we wanted from UTEP last week to help keep this total higher than it probably should be. The Miners scored 30 points in a home win over Florida International, thriving offensively in their first game without QB Cade McConnell. I'm not counting on continued success from UTEP here as it makes the difficult trip to Ruston to face Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs were involved in a high-scoring game of their own last week as they fell 33-30 in double-overtime at New Mexico State. I expect the scoring to settle down here, noting that last year's matchup between these two teams reached only 34 total points. Both offenses are limited and I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks on Tuesday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Oregon State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams are coming off a string of wild, high-scoring affairs - a big reason why this total is hovering around the 60-point mark. I don't think Oregon State will have any interest in a track meet on Saturday, however, as it knows that its offense, while productive at times, isn't consistent enough to prevail in that type of environment. UNLV is almost certainly in line for some regression offensively after putting up 59, 41 and 50 points over its last three games. Keep in mind, two of those performances came in the friendly confines of Allegiant Stadium while the other came against one of the worst defenses in the country in Utah State. Remember, earlier this season the Rebels were involved in road games that totalled just 34 and 43 points against Houston and Kansas, respectively. I believe this total will prove too high under the lights in Corvallis. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Stanford plus the points over SMU at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Stanford is in free-fall right now having lost three straight games following a 2-1 star to the campaign. Not a lot better could have been expected out of the Cardinals during a three-game stretch that included games at Clemson, at home against Virginia Tech and at Notre Dame. Here, I like the Cardinal's chances of rebounding and giving SMU a serious test. The Mustangs are coming off an upset win on the road against Louisville two weeks ago (they had their bye last week). Make no mistake, that was a big win for SMU as a program, taking down a top-25 ranked ACC squad. Now SMU finds itself inside the nation's top-25 and I can't help but feel a letdown is in order, especially with this game sandwiched between the stop in Louisville and another road game against Duke next week. Take Stanford (8*).

My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Florida at 7:45 pm et on Saturday.

So maybe Vanderbilt is for real. I'll admit, I thought Kentucky would roll past the Commodores, who were in a massive letdown spot following the monumental win over then-number one ranked Alabama the week previous, last Saturday in Lexington. That didn't happen and now the Wildcats need to pick up where they left off in their most recent road game - a hard-fought win over Ole Miss in Oxford - in order to get their season back on track. I like their chances of going into the Swamp and coming away with a win over the rival Gators. Florida has been pretty much as advertised so far this season, going 3-3 through its first six games. I question how much the Gators have in the tank after leaving it all on the field in a 23-17 overtime loss last Saturday in Knoxville. Not only that but the Gators will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with rival Georgia in Jacksonville. I like the fight Kentucky has shown this season, despite the disappointing result last week. Take Kentucky (8*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Buffalo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Western Michigan had a tough schedule out of the gate this season, lining up against Wisconsin and Ohio State in consecutive weeks, on the road no less. Since then, the Broncos have steadied themselves by posting three wins in their last four games. Last week, Buffalo staged an upset win at home against Toledo. The Bulls have been wildly inconsistent so far this season. I think they caught the Rockets in a spot where they figured they could sleepwalk their way to a victory. That's just not how the MAC works. Any team is capable of beating any other team on any given day. Here, I expect Western Michigan to take a more serious approach than Toledo and ultimately prevail. The Broncos know they can't take anything for granted. After all, their two straight wins over Ball State and Akron came by a grand total of just 13 points. These two teams haven't met since the 2021 season, when Western Michigan went on the road and won 24-17. The Broncos would like nothing more than to spoil the Bulls homecoming weekend on Saturday. Look for them to do just that. Take Western Michigan (10*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over Army at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Army finds itself ranked in the national top-25 following six consecutive blowout wins to open the season. We'll fade the Black Knights on Saturday, however, as they've faced a ridiculously easy schedule so far including games against two of the country's worst FBS teams in Tulsa and UAB over the last two weeks. East Carolina started the season 2-0 but has dropped three of four games since. The Pirates come off their bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for Army's vaunted triple-option attack. East Carolina figures to be in a foul mood entering this contest after it was stunned 55-24 on the road against Charlotte last time out. Prior to that, the Pirates other two setbacks came against tough opponents in Appalachian State and Liberty, by a combined 13 points. We're catching a generous helping of points with East Carolina on Saturday, in a game that I expect to go down to the wire. Take East Carolina (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Purdue at 8 pm et on Friday.

This is a tough spot for both of these teams with Oregon just six days removed from its thrilling come-from-behind win over Ohio State and Purdue coming off a wild 50-49 overtime loss against Illinois on the same day. Considering the Boilermakers had been held to 10 points or less in three of their previous five games, an offensive letdown is sure to be in order against an elite Oregon defense on Friday. Meanwhile, the Ducks have been incredibly consistent offensively this season but perhaps not quite as explosive as in previous years, topping out at 37 points in five of their six contests (they scored 49 points in an outlier performance against Oregon State). This game presents an opportunity for Oregon to catch its breath following the massive win over Ohio State. I believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (8*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I'm not a big believer in this Virginia Tech squad. Yes, a night game in Blacksburg is a tough setting for an underdog visitor but I expect Boston College to be up for the challenge in this rivalry matchup. Note that the Hokies have taken the last two meetings in this series and neither game was close. Boston College checks in off a loss on the road against Virginia two weeks ago. Both teams will be coming off their bye weeks. I think the Virginia Tech offense is in line for some regression in this matchup after scoring 34 and 31 points in its last two games. The Hokies nearly upset Miami on the road two games back before taking their frustrations out on a reeling Stanford squad last time out. Wins over Marshall, Old Dominion and Stanford aren't all that impressive. While Boston College has dropped a couple of games, it has been right here in all seven contests. I'm confident head coach Bill O'Brien will have the right gameplan to attack the Hokies defense given the extra week to prepare. The schedule only gets tougher from here, look for the Eagles to put up a fight on Thursday. Take Boston College (10*).

Conference-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams are in for some offensive regression on Wednesday as they match up in Huntsville. Sam Houston State has scored 40 and 41 points in its last two games and has generally exceeded expectations from an offensive standpoint this season. The Bearkats figure to face a lot more resistance against Western Kentucky than they did in their most recent contest against a dreadful UTEP team. Note that the Hilltoppers have held the likes of Toledo (at home) and Boston College (on the road) to an identical 21 points. Like Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky figures to get a bit of a wake-up call after annihilating UTEP 44-17 just six days ago. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a close one as WKU prevailed 28-23. That contest reached 'only' 51 points despite a 30-point second quarter. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over Boise State at 11 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with the Rainbow Warriors as they look to catch the Broncos in a flat spot off that 62-point explosion against Utah State last week. Of course, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is a next-level talent and on track for a possible Heisman Trophy this season. I like fading high-profile teams coming off much-discussed victories and that's the case with the Broncos here. The common line of thinking is that Jeanty will run wild once again but Hawaii has actually proven to have a pulse on defense this season. The Warriors dropped the cash last week at San Diego State but they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS defeats this season. Look for them to give the Broncos a fight on Saturday. Take Hawaii (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Colorado at 10:15 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this showdown off their bye week and both are looking to follow up on impressive victories as Kansas State rolled Oklahoma State at home while Colorado blitzed Central Florida on the road. We'll fade the Buffaloes as they try for their fourth straight ATS victory. These two teams couldn't be more different. Give us the side that knows how to run the football - the Wildcats have been downright dominant on the ground so far this season, gaining 200+ rushing yards in all five games. Colorado has been virtually mistake-free lately but it will be tested by a Kansas State team that has forced six turnovers in its last four games. Take Kansas State (10*).

My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Minnesota at 9 pm et on Saturday.

Moral victories aren't going to cut it for the Bruins. They've covered the spread in three straight games but enter this contest riding a four-game losing streak overall. The schedule has obviously played a role. I think this is a winnable game for UCLA as it catches Minnesota travelling in a letdown spot off a big upset win over USC last Saturday. The Golden Gophers had dropped two games in a row prior to that stunner. Here, they'll be trying for a third straight ATS win for the first time this season. The last time they tried to accomplish that feat they got rolled by Iowa at home on September 21st. We'll grab all the points we can get with the home underdog here. Take UCLA (8*).

My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:45 pm et on Saturday.

It doesn't get much tougher than Vanderbilt trying to get back up and avoid the inevitable letdown following last week's massive upset win over then-number one ranked Alabama. The Commodores won't have the benefit of staying in Nashville as they head to Lexington to take on Kentucky. The Wildcats have gotten off to an uneven start this season but they did take Georgia down to the wire in a one-point defeat and also won outright on the road against Ole Miss just two weeks ago. Note that the Wildcats are rested following their bye week. We'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Saturday as I expect their defense to keep Diego Pavia and the Commodores in check all night long. Take Kentucky (8*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Ohio State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's not often we get the opportunity to catch points with Oregon at Autzen Stadium. That's the situation on Saturday as the Ducks host mighty (and undefeated) Ohio State. Oregon got off to a slow start this season but has settled in. I don't really see any reason for the Buckeyes to be laying points against an undefeated opponent in a hostile environment. While Ohio State has been blowing out the opposition on a weekly basis, it hasn't truly been tested. Arguably its toughest matchup to date came against Iowa last week but that game was played at a the Horseshoe in Columbus. Much different story here against Oregon. Look for the Ducks to make the Buckeyes uncomfortable all night and stage the minor upset. Take Oregon (8*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Ole Miss got the wake up call it needed two weeks ago as it was upset at home against Kentucky. The Rebels got off to a strong start in that contest and perhaps thought the down-trodden Wildcats would simply roll over. That wasn't the case. Last Saturday, South Carolina did Ole Miss a big favor by not offering much of a challenge at all. You see the Rebels were going to be at a disadvantage here with LSU coming off its bye week. However, Ole Miss took part in a glorified walk-through against the Gamecocks, rolling to a 27-3 victory. I'm certain Lane Kiffin has his team treating this second straight road tilt as a business trip. LSU checks in off four straight wins but is just 1-4 ATS on the campaign. Take Ole Miss (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and Colorado State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams were involved in wild, high-scoring games last week. I expect nothing of the sort this week as San Jose State travels to face Colorado State. The Rams scored 31 points in a double-overtime loss against Oregon State last Saturday. The last time they scored 30+ points in a game they followed it up with a nine-point effort against rival Colorado. San Jose State has displayed a far more explosive offensive than most expected this season but I do think there will be bumps in the road. Keep in mind, this is a team that was held to 17 points in a road game against a struggling Air Force squad earlier this season. I think this is a sneaky-tough road trip off the thrilling win over Nevada last Saturday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

It seems like an eternity since Utah last played. In actuality it was on September 28th as the Utes fell by a 23-10 against Arizona. QB Cam Rising is expected to return from a finger injury suffered in Utah's second game of the season against Baylor. You have to wonder about rust from Rising as he's missed so much time over the last couple of years. Defensively, the Utes have been terrific in the early going this season and match up well against the Sun Devils. Arizona State has been running up some big scores this season but this will be its toughest test in terms of opposing defense. I expect points to come at a premium. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on California plus the points over Miami at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Hurricanes got a scare at home against Virginia Tech last week. I don't think Miami's first loss of the season is far off at this point and Cal might just be the team to do the deed as it looks to rebound from its own first loss of the campaign last week in Tallahassee. Note that the Bears are an incredible 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games as an underdog of between 7.5 and 14 points. Miami getting involved in so many high-scoring affairs is usually a bad sign moving forward as it has gone 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following three straight 'over' results, as is the case here. Take California (8*).