My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Mariners cruised to a 6-0 win to open this series yesterday. Not much has come easy for Seattle this season, however, and I look for it to face a lot more resistance in Saturday's contest. Rookie Mike Burrows has quietly pitched well for the Pirates this season. Note that Pittsburgh is 5-2 over his last seven starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. He has given up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Luis Castillo counters for the Mariners. He comes off a strong start in Texas but had been struggling prior to that, allowing 14 earned runs in 22 innings over his previous four outings. The Pirates bullpen can hang with the Mariners in my opinion so we'll grab the insurance run in a game that could very well go down to the wire. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Orioles have been playing better baseball lately but will enter this series riding a two-game losing streak after dropping back-to-back games in Texas. We'll back them with an insurance run on Friday as they send Charlie Morton to the hill against Spencer Strider. Morton has quietly turned things around and Baltimore has gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line, winning five of those games outright. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time Morton allowed more than three earned runs. Spencer Strider has been solid for the Braves but I think a lack of run support could bite him here. Note that Atlanta ranks 21st in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last week. Meanwhile, Baltimore checks in fourth and third, respectively, in those two categories over the same stretch. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the White Sox on Wednesday as they look to bounce back from last night's blowout loss against the Dodgers. Chicago actually checks in ranked a respectable ninth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The White Sox will step in against Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday. They rank 12th in the majors in isolated power against southpaw pitching this season. Kershaw has made eight starts this season with the Dodgers winning only half of those games by more than a single run. Sean Burke will counter for Chicago. He enters in good form having allowed just one earned run over his last two starts, covering a span of 10 1/3 innings of work. Behind Burke is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a 1.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Cubs on the run-line last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday. Cleveland will hand the ball to Tanner Bibee. While he did pitch reasonably well over six innings in his most recent start, that was at home and the Guardians still lost that game 6-0 against Toronto. Cleveland's offense ranks among the worst in the majors - only Colorado has been worse in terms of weighted on base average over the last week. The Guardians will be up against Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga on Wednesday. He was solid over five economical innings (he needed only 77 pitches) in his return from the I.L. last week, allowing just one hit and no earned runs against the Cardinals. Even on an off night at the dish last night, the Cubs still produced five runs and won by three. They rank seventh in baseball in wOBA and fifth in isolated power over the last week. Also of note, Chicago's bullpen owns a collective 0.44 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over the last week while Cleveland's 'pen has posted a 6.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Cubs on Tuesday as they open a series with the Guardians at Wrigley Field. Chicago checks in off a loss while Cleveland has dropped four games in a row. While the Guardians do sit in second place in the A.L. Central, they've been a big disappointment this season. Of note, they've been outscored by 47 runs overall this season while the Cubs have outscored the opposition by 104 runs - only the Yankees have been better in that department. Chicago also owns the starting pitching advantage in this game with left-hander Matthew Boyd going against Gavin Williams of Cleveland. Boyd is on a terrific run right now having allowed just six earned runs over his last six starts, covering a span of 36 1/3 innings of work. Behind Boyd is a Cubs bullpen that has been lights out lately, posting a sparkling 0.40 ERA and 0.63 WHIP over the last week. In stark contrast, the Guardians 'pen owns an 8.85 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

Athletics starter Jacob Lopez hasn't gotten enough credit for his recent stretch. He's faced the Royals, Astros and Tigers in succession and has given up just one earned run in 19 innings of work and that's with two of those starts coming on the road. Given the way he's settled in, I look for the A's to hang tough at Steinbrenner Field on Monday. Drew Rasmussen has admittedly pitched well for the Rays this season. With that being said, he hasn't lasted beyond 5 1/3 innings in any of his last three starts and the Rays are just 2-2 over his last four outings when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Note that Tampa Bay's bullpen has imploded lately, sporting a 9.33 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last week - leaving the back door wide open should we need it with the insurance run in our back pocket. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Marlins took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night and I look for them to give the Giants all they can handle again on Wednesday. The knee-jerk reaction here would be to back San Francisco with its ace Logan Webb on the mound. As good as Webb has been this season, the Giants have won just one of his last six starts by more than a single run. On the flip side, Edward Cabrera held a tough Phillies lineup to just one earned run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings last time out and the Marlins are 6-4 in his last 10 outings with all four of those losses coming by a single run. In what projects as a low-scoring affair and with the bullpen matchup a virtual wash based on current form, we'll grab the insurance run with the visiting Marlins. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Friday as they look to bounce back following last night's extra innings defeat against the Athletics in Sacramento. That was an up-and-down series for Houston but I look for it to settle in on Friday night in Anaheim. The pitching matchup favors the Astros heavily with Hunter Brown taking the ball against Yusei Kikuchi. Brown has been terrific this season, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kikuchi has been all over the place with a 3.05 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. Houston has absolutely torched southpaw pitching this season and I think it does more than enough to cover the run-line in this spot. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Rockies in the opener of this N.L. West series on Friday. The case can be made that the Rockies are playing better than the Diamondbacks right now. Off a winning series in Washington and off a hard-fought extra innings loss in yesterday's series finale, we'll call for Colorado to rebound at home on Friday. Zac Gallen has not been good for the D'Backs this season, posting a 4.90 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while going 4-8 in 15 starts. Behind him is an Arizona bullpen that has been even worse than Colorado's, including of late as it has logged a 7.84 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last week. Austin Gomber gets the start for the Rockies. He had a productive season debut last week, going five shutout innings of two-hit ball. Look for a competitive affair on Friday at Coors Field. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over New York at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Mets are reeling right now and there's really no end in sight with this difficult series in Philadelphia followed by another series against the Braves, who just handled them easily. New York is in another tough spot on Friday as it goes up against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Since a rough outing at home against the Braves on May 29th, he's settled down, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits while striking out 16 and walking just one in 12 innings over his last two starts. On the season, Wheeler owns Cy Young Award-caliber numbers with a 2.76 FIP and 0.89 WHIP. New York will turn to Blade Tidwell for his second start. His first one didn't go well at all as he was lit up for nine hits and six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. New York has precious few options on the mound right now noting that its bullpen has also struggled to the tune of a 5.92 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over the last week. Phillies roll. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

This has been a back-and-forth series so far with the Rays most recently rallying from an early 8-0 deficit to take last night's contest in what was a wild affair at Steinbrenner Field. We'll call for the Orioles to bounce back on Thursday and will grab the insurance run at a reasonable price. Charlie Morton takes the ball for Baltimore. He's settled down since returning to the starting rotation, allowing just six earned runs in 20 innings of work. Of those six earned runs, four of them came in a start against the Athletics at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Of note, Morton has allowed just one home run in his last four outings. Drew Rasmussen got off to a red hot start for the Rays this season but has shown some possible signs of regression over his last two starts. Last time out he lasted only five innings, allowing four earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs, against the Mets at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Now he starts on short rest (four days) against an Orioles lineup that has shown some life lately. While the O's bullpen is usually a concern, they have held up reasonably well lately, sporting a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Padres at a reasonable price on Wednesday night in Los Angeles. Stephen Kolek will start for San Diego. He's had a rocky season so far, logging a 4.43 FIP and 1.32 WHIP across eight starts. With that being said, he has held the opposition to just under 3.9 runs per nine innings and while the Padres bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns terrific overall numbers and has been pressed into duty for just 19 1/3 innings over the last week so the arms should be relatively fresh for this one. The Dodgers will give Emmet Sheehan his first start of the season after he missed the entire 2024 campaign following Tommy John surgery. Sheehan delivered mixed results in his rookie season in 2023 and draws a tough first assignment against a Padres club that will be desperate to bounce back following consecutive defeats to open this series. While the Dodgers bullpen behind Sheehan has been good, it has also worked nearly 30 innings over the last week so fatigue could become an issue in the coming days. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

After dropping the first two games of this series and mired in an incredible hitting slump, I look for the Yankees to bounce back in a big way on Wednesday. Jack Kochanowicz gets the start for the Angels. He checks in sporting a lofty 5.62 FIP And 1.59 WHIP. Note that New York is top three in the majors in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season. Ryan Yarbrough counters for New York. He sports a 4.39 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and has allowed 2.5 fewer hits and 1.1 fewer walks per nine innings while also striking out 2.0 more batters compared to Kochanowicz. Of note, the Angels rank next-to-last in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. With the Yankees bullpen having posted a 0.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week, we'll confidently lay the extra run with New York in this spot. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

I don't see any considerable advantage for the Dodgers in this matchup, not enough to warrant such a reasonable price to grab an insurance run with the visiting Giants. San Francisco will be looking to bounce back from last night's beatdown and I look for them to at the very least take this one down to the final at-bat. Kyle Harrison starts for the Giants against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Their numbers have been almost identical this season although Harrison has allowed slightly fewer hits and walks per nine innings while also striking out 0.9 more batters per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash in terms of recent form and the Giants relief corps has been significantly better on the road than the Dodgers 'pen has been at home this season. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves exploded late in an eventual blowout win over the Rockies to open this series last night. We'll call for Atlanta to beat up on Colorado again on Saturday afternoon. The Rockies bullpen is a mess right now having posted an 11.42 ERA and 2.08 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last week. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has logged a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while needing to work only 13 innings over that same stretch. The starting pitching matchup favors the Braves here as well. While Spencer Strider hasn't been at his best since returning from injury he still owns better numbers than Rockies starter Chase Dollander. Note that Dollander has allowed a whopping 7.5 runs per nine innings in 10 starts (to go along with a 6.30 FIP and 1.55 WHIP). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the run-line with the Braves on Friday as they open a series against the Rockies at home. Colorado is fresh off a come-from-behind 8-7 walk-off win over San Francisco yesterday. There are still major concerns when it comes to this cellar-dwelling club, however. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies on Friday. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez owns a 4.46 FIP and 1.68 WHIP and has allowed a ridiculous 7.9 runs per nine innings in 13 starts. Bryce Elder certainly hasn't been great for the Braves, but he's been considerably better than Marquez with a 4.30 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 4.1 fewer hits and 0.5 fewer walks while striking out 1.8 more per nine innings this season. The bullpen edge goes to the Braves as well. Atlanta's 'pen has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over the last week while the Rockies relief corps owns a 7.84 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Thursday as they wrap up their series with the White Sox in Houston. Chicago will hand the ball to Davis Martin as he makes his 13th start and 14th appearance of the season. Martin hasn't been terrible but that's about where the compliments end. He owns a 4.55 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while allowing 4.1 runs per nine innings. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He has recorded a 3.08 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just under 3.1 runs per nine frames. The Astros have a considerable edge in terms of the bullpen matchup as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the last week compared to the White Sox 3.68 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. On the season, Chicago has converted just three saves while blowing five on the road while Houston has converted 11 and blown only 1 at home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Giants have taken the first two games of this series and I expect them to complete the sweep in convincing fashion on Thursday. Hayden Birdsong gets his fifth start (16th appearance) of teh season for the Giants. He's been serviceable to be sure this season, logging a 3.60 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding just a shade over 3.6 runs per nine innings. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela checks in sporting an inflated 5.39 FIP and 1.97 WHIP while giving up north of 7.5 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest with the Giants relief corps having posted a collective 2.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with three saves converted and one blown over the last week. Colorado's 'pen owns an ugly 9.35 ERA and 1.96 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Giants run-line last night as they rallied for a 6-5 victory at Coors Field. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday, however, as San Francisco holds an even bigger pitching advantage. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the Giants. He's enjoying a renaissance campaign of sorts having posted a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while giving up only 2.4 runs per nine innings. Contrast that with Rockies starter Kyle Freeland who owns a respectable 3.55 FIP but a 1.54 WHIP and has been tagged for just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on current form. Giants relievers have combined to log a 1.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with four saves converted and none blown (while working only 22 1/3 innings) over the last week. The Rockies 'pen has recorded a 7.01 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with one save converted and two blown over that same stretch (and they've been pressed into duty for 25 2/3 innings). Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Giants will send Kyle Harrison to the mound against rookie Carson Palmquist as they open a divisional series in Denver on Tuesday. Harrison has been quietly effective since returning to the Giants rotation, logging a 3.55 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Palmquist as he has worked 18 big league innings, posting a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP while yielding a whopping 8.0 runs per nine frames. As you would expect, the bullpen advantage goes to the Giants as well as their relief corps has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last week (and a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season) while the Rockies 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP (and a 4.87 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only four saves converted and four blown at home) over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the White Sox in the first five innings on Tuesday as they open a series in Houston. Shane Smith has been quietly effective starting for Chicago this season, posting a 3.52 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while giving up just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. While Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has pitched well lately, he still owns a pedestrian 3.93 FIP and 1.40 WHIP on the campaign and gives up just under 5.2 runs per nine frames. While there's no advantage in terms of the bullpen, we'll stick to the first five innings and back the White Sox to stay on level terms. Take Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Washington +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The argument can certainly be made that the Nationals have the starting pitching advantage in this contest with MacKenzie Gore taking the ball against Griffin Canning of the Mets. Gore checks in with a terrific 2.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP and gives up just under 2.9 runs per nine innings on the season. Meanwhile, Canning has posted a 3.78 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. Admittedly, Canning has limited the damage, allowing just 3.2 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is pretty much even based on current form and as a whole, the Nationals relief corps has struggled this season so we'll back Washington plus the half-run in the first five innings only on Tuesday. Take Washington +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Orioles have been playing better lately, I expect them to struggle - at least in the early stages - of Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. Detroit will give Brant Hurter a start, likely in an 'opener' role. Hurter has been terrific for Detroit this season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while giving up less than 1.9 runs per nine innings. Cade Povich will counter for Baltimore. While he's shown some improvement lately he still owns a 4.26 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the campaign, having allowed just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. By grabbing the half-run with the Tigers in the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a suddenly red hot Orioles bullpen. The Baltimore relief corps has logged a sparkling 0.42 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over the last week. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Red Sox answered back after dropping the opener of this series but I look for a response from the Yankees, at least in the early going in Sunday night's series finale. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for New York. He's been terrific this season, recording a 2.93 FIP and 0.93 WHIP, firmly planting him in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation even if it is still early. Rodon has allowed just over 2.7 runs per nine innings. Hunter Dobbins will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.38 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing just under 4.3 runs per nine frames. The bullpen advantage does go to the Red Sox based on current form so we'll stick with laying the half-run in the first five innings only with the Yankees. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Angels on Sunday afternoon. George Kirby gets the start for the visiting Mariners. He's been downright awful since returning from injury, logging a 5.63 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in three starts. Over that stretch he has allowed a ridiculous 8.6 runs per nine innings. Tyler Anderson counters for Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 4.98 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Anderson has allowed just a shade over 4.4 runs per nine frames which is about par for the course for the veteran left-hander. The bullpen advantage goes to the Angels based on current form as they've posted a 1.65 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last week compared to the Mariners' 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants delivered a walk-off win for us yesterday thanks to Matt Chapman's ninth inning two-run home run. We'll back San Francisco again on Sunday, this time grabbing the insurance run. Landen Roupp will start for the Giants. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 1.38 WHIP on the campaign, allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. Spencer Strider will counter for Atlanta. He owns a 6.38 FIP and 1.37 WHIP and has given up just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings. We'll give the bullpen advantage to the Giants based on recent form as they've posted a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last week compared to the Braves' 6.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP (with no saves converted and two blown over that stretch). Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll once again back the Mets and lay the half-run in the first five innings at a price that I believe should be even higher. Tylor Megill takes the ball for New York. He's been quietly effective in 12 starts this season, logging a 3.12 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while yielding just under 4.4 runs per nine innings. While that last number is not impressive at all, consider Rockies starter Chase Dollander has given up north of 6.9 runs per nine innings to go along with a 5.97 FIP and 1.44 WHIP. The bullpen advantage isn't nearly as obvious as it may seem so we'll stick with the first five innings once again. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 2:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Dodgers have dropped the first two games in this series as their offense has run dry, scoring just a single run in those contests. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles in the first five innings as it hands the ball to a struggling Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw owns a 5.43 FIP and 1.66 WHIP in four starts since returning from injury. He has allowed over 6.3 runs per nine innings. Michael McGreevy makes just his second appearance for the Cardinals after a nice long relief stint of 5 1/3 innings. While he's likely to have a short leash in this one, I expect St. Louis' bats to get to Kershaw and at least keep this one level after five frames. Take St. Louis +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Sunday.

After a wild game between these two teams yesterday we'll call for things to settle down and for the Rays to hold a lead after five innings on Sunday afternoon. Drew Rasmussen has been lights out for the Rays so far this season, logging a 3.29 FIP and 0.87 WHIP. While the Tampa Bay bullpen has been strong as well, this particular matchup is a virtual wash based on current form so we'll stick with the first five frames only. Note that the Marlins will give the start to likely 'opener' Anthony Veneziano. He owns a 5.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP so far this season (in 21 appearances). Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

While the Orioles own the bullpen advantage based on recent form, it's the Athletics that should be able to hang tough early with Luis Severino taking the ball against Charlie Morton. Severino has posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.27 WHIP this season and while he has struggled at home, I do think he can figure it out over time. Morton comes off a couple of quality outings but still owns a 5.24 FIP and 1.58 WHIP on the campaign and has allowed more hits, walks and home runs per nine innings compared to Severino this season. In fact, Morton is allowing north of 6.5 runs per nine innings. Take the Athletics +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Mets laying the half-run in the first five innings at Coors Field on Saturday as we're being offered a price that should be even higher in my opinion. Clay Holmes gets the start for New York. He owns a 3.88 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has allowed just 3.3 runs per nine innings. It's a much different story for Rockies rookie Carson Palmquist. He owns a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in four starts, yielding a whopping 9.0 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup is much closer than you might think based on recent form so we'll stick with the 'first five innings' here. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Nationals took the opener of this series last night but we'll call for the Rangers to answer back behind their ace, Jacob deGrom, on Saturday. DeGrom has logged a 3.64 FIP and 0.98 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.3 runs per nine innings. Mitchell Parker takes the ball for Washington. He owns a 4.42 FIP and 1.31 WHIP and while he has pitched better at Nationals Park, I think the Rangers lineup is in line for a bounce-back performance here. Note that the Nationals bullpen has been awful all season at home and owns a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last week. Over the same stretch, the Rangers 'pen has posted a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

The Rockies rose up and swept the Marlins in a road series earlier this week but I expect their success to be short-lived. We'll lay the extra run with the Mets in the first five innings on Friday night at Coors Field as they own a considerable starting pitching advantage. Kodai Senga will take the ball for New York. He owns a 3.21 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just a shade over 2.0 runs per nine innings so far this season. That's in stark contrast to Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela. The veteran right-hander owns a 5.41 FIP and 1.98 WHIP and has allowed 8.1 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is actually less decisive than you might think, certainly in terms of recent form. We'll stick to the first five innings run-line as a result. Take New York -1.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Pirates as they look to rebound following a tough series against the Astros. The Phillies are licking their own wounds after consecutive bad series' against the Brewers and Blue Jays. Joe Ross will take the ball for Philadelphia on Friday. He owns a 4.73 FIP and 1.28 WHIP in 29 innings of relief work this season, allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Pirates starter Bailey Falter has been more effective, posting a 4.06 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash both in terms of recent form and home-road splits this season. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Red Sox as they head to the Bronx to face the Yankees on Friday. The starting pitching matchup features Walker Buehler for the Sox and Will Warren for the Yankees. While Warren started hot, he's faded recently. On the season he owns a 3.12 FIP but a 1.42 WHIP and has given up north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. Buehler has logged a 4.73 FIP and 1.31 WHIP but has yielded just 4.4 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on recent form. The Sox 'pen has posted a sparkling 0.96 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over the last week and has also held up well on the road this season with a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Yanks relief corps' has posted a 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last week and owns a collective WHIP north of 1.30 at home this season. Take Boston +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

We want to steer clear of the Yankees fading bullpen right now (8.50 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over the last week) but we will back New York laying a half-run in the first five innings as it has a decisive starting pitching advantage. Max Fried is having a phenomenal first season with the Bronx Bombers. He has posted a 2.87 FIP and 0.97 WHIP through 12 outings. Contrast that with Guardians highly-touted prospect Slade Cecconi (who came over in the Josh Naylor trade) who has posted a 6.07 FIP and 1.44 WHIP and has been at his worst over his last couple of starts. We'll look to avoid a strong Guardians bullpen that has logged a 1.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last week. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Toronto +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 3:05 pm et on Thursday.

There's very little separating these two clubs right now and not surprisingly they've split the first two games of this series. We'll grab the insurance run with the Blue Jays in Thursday's matinee series finale. The two starting pitchers are almost carbon copies of one another with Jesus Luzardo going for the Phillies against Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays. Bassitt does bring better current form into this start with Luzardo having allowed a ridiculous 12 earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings against the Brewers. Philadelphia has lost his last two starts. The bullpen advantage goes to Toronto as it has logged a sparkling 1.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven days. Philadelphia's 'pen checks in sporting a 5.33 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over that stretch. Take Toronto +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets took the opener of this series on Monday before the Dodgers answered last night. Both games have been incredibly tight. We'll call for another tightly-contested affair on Wednesday and grab the insurance run with the visiting Mets. Let's get the bullpens out of the way first. It's a virtual wash in terms of current form. In general the Mets 'pen has been solid on the road with a 3.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with eight saves converted and four blown. That's an identical save ratio compared to the Dodgers at home. Griffin Canning starts for New York on Wednesday. He's quietly putting together a solid campaign having posted a 4.07 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while limiting the damage allowing just under 3.6 runs per nine innings. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has returned form injury to post a 6.01 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in six starts, yielding 5.2 runs per nine innings. Take New York +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Orioles on Tuesday night. Baltimore will give the start to Tomoyuki Sugano. He checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP but a much better 1.06 WHIP through 11 starts. It's been a rough go for Mariners starter George Kirby since making his debut after a stint on the I.L. Kirby owns a 7.46 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through two outings. Seattle's bullpen behind Kirby hasn't been good lately, posting a 6.65 ERA and 1.78 WHIP with three blown saves over the last seven days. While the O's 'pen has only managed to record a 4.70 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the same stretch it did convert three saves while blowing only one. Also of note, the O's 'pen has logged just 15 1/3 innings over the last week. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Angels as they send Yusei Kikuchi to the hill against Brayan Bello of the Red Sox on Tuesday. Kikuchi has posted a 4.36 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season. While those numbers aren't great, they're better than what Bello is offering with a 5.05 FIP and 1.63 WHIP. The two bullpens are a virtual wash over the last week with one exception, that being the fact that Red Sox relievers have logged just shy of 28 innings, entering overworked territory (the Angels 'pen has pitched just 21 1/3 innings over that stretch). Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

Nationals starter Mitchell Parker is trending in the wrong direction right now. Going back to April 27th, Parker has allowed 6, 5, 4, 4, 3 and 4 earned runs over his last six starts, lasting more than five innings in just one of those outings. While the Diamondbacks have dropped the first two games of this series, their offense did wake up late in last night's game, scoring seven runs to at least make things respectable after digging an inexplicable 10-run deficit in the first inning. Corbin Burnes will be tasked with the job of helping stop the D'Backs slide on Sunday and I like his chances of doing so. Burnes has posted a sub-2.00 ERA at home this season and despite an 0-2 team record in his last two outings, is in good form having allowed three earned runs or less in seven straight starts. I also like the fact that Burnes is capable of working deep into games (he's lasted seven innings in three of his last four outings), perhaps giving some relief to Arizona's struggling bullpen (the Nats haven't been much better in that department). We'll lay the extra run with the Snakes. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Dodgers starting pitching woes have bitten them in the first two games in this series. Last night, Clayton Kershaw made his long-awaited return to the mound and struggled as the Angels took a second straight game to open this series.

The good news is, the Dodgers will be handing the ball to Tony Gonsolin for his fourth start of the campaign on Sunday. The right hander has seemingly regained his form, logging a 2.85 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, most recently silencing a red hot Diamondbacks lineup, on the road no less, over five innings in an 8-1 victory last weekend. Note that current Angels hitters are a woeful 9-for-42 (.214) with a .671 OPS against Gonsolin.

Of course, the later innings should belong to the Dodgers as well as they rank second in the majors in bullpen xFIP this season while the Angels sit in 25th.

Finally, I'll point out that current Dodgers hitters are a healthy 28-for94 (.298) with an .878 OPS against Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi. He's gotten off to a disastrous start with his new team this season, posting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while going 0-4 in nine outings. Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Clay Holmes has turned out to be quite an acquisition for the Mets. Since opening the season with a 3-1 loss in Houston, Holmes has recorded a perfect 7-0 team record in his last seven starts with the last six wins all coming by at least two runs. It's easy to forget that he was an All-Star selection as a reliever with the Yankees in two of the last three seasons, including last year. So far this season, Holmes has made a successful conversion to starter, logging a 2.61 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Note that current Pirates hitters have gone just 4-for-20 (.200) against him with a .704 OPS (thanks in large part to a home run off the bat of Andrew McCutchen.

Bailey Falter will counter for Pittsburgh on Wednesday. He's been terrific over his last two starts but both of those came at home. On the season he's 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home but 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA on the road. Falter owns a career 4.55 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Current Mets hitters are a healthy 21-for-74 (.284) with a .752 OPS against him.

While the Mets rank top-five in the majors in weighted on base average this season the Pirates check in 29th - ahead of only the White Sox. It's a similar story in terms of bullpen xFIP - one of our other favorite metrics - with the Mets ranking fifth in baseball and the Pirates 22nd. After a tightly-contested affair last night, look for New York to open things up on Wednesday. Take New York -1.5 runs.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers find themselves in an unfamiliar spot — trailing in the N.L. West and mired in a rare slump with losses in four of their last five games. However, Saturday presents a strong opportunity to get back on track. Mitch Keller will toe the rubber for the Pirates and while he's a capable arm, he's consistently allowed traffic on the basepaths this season, posting a 3.92 FIP and 1.36 WHIP across 28 innings. His career numbers against the Dodgers are concerning as well, with current L.A. hitters batting .287 with a robust .892 OPS against him, including four different players having already taken him deep.

Roki Sasaki gets the start for Los Angeles and seems to be finding his rhythm, coming off a sharp outing against a tough Texas lineup where he allowed just two earned runs on two hits over six innings (needing only 78 pitches to do so). Facing a Pirates offense that's cooled off over the last couple of games should help him continue to build confidence.

Importantly, the Dodgers also hold a significant edge in the bullpen, with a top-five ranking in xFIP compared to the Pirates' 19th. Expect L.A.'s lineup to finally break out against Keller and for Sasaki and the bullpen to hold the Bucco bats in check.

Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs. Projected score: Dodgers 6, Pirates 2.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday.

This sets up as a favorable get-right spot for the Dodgers, who enter the finale having cooled slightly at the plate but still rank second in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching and remain top-10 in offensive production over the last week. That’s important against Nationals starter Jake Irvin, who has been shaky out of the gate with a 6.87 FIP and 1.70 WHIP across 10 innings and showed similar vulnerability over a much larger sample last season. Dodgers bats have fared well against Irvin historically, going 19-for-57 (.333) with a strong .886 OPS.

Los Angeles will counter with Landon Knack, making his first start of the season. Knack has pitched only two innings so far this year, but was effective, allowing just one of seven batters to reach. He’s not being asked to eat innings, which plays into the strength of the Dodgers bullpen, which currently ranks third in MLB in xFIP. That’s a stark contrast to a Nationals bullpen that ranks 29th, ahead of only Colorado.

Washington has been swinging the bats better lately but still finds itself outmatched in every phase of the game here. With the Dodgers enjoying the clear edge both on the mound and at the plate, I expect them to take control and cruise to a multi-run win.

Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs. Projected score: Dodgers 7, Nationals 3.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Atlanta at 10:10 pm ET on Monday.

The Braves are struggling at the plate, ranking ahead of only the Twins in weighted on-base average early in the season. Coming off a four-game sweep in San Diego, this isn't the ideal spot for them to turn things around, especially against Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow had an excellent but injury-shortened 2024 campaign, posting a 2.90 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. He has dominated the current Braves lineup, limiting them to just 11 hits in 62 at-bats (.177) with a .507 OPS. Notably, Atlanta hitters have managed only three extra-base hits (all doubles) against him in that span.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers enter this matchup red-hot, and I expect them to take advantage of an Atlanta team that has yet to find its rhythm offensively. Given the starting pitching edge and the way Los Angeles is swinging the bats, I'll confidently lay the extra run.

Take Los Angeles -1.5. Projected score: Dodgers 6, Braves 3.

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves have dropped the first two games of this series, but both contests were tightly contested. I expect them to bounce back in convincing fashion on Saturday behind a strong effort from Spencer Schwellenbach. The young right-hander put together a promising rookie campaign last season, posting a 3.29 FIP and 1.04 WHIP across 21 starts. He carried that momentum into the spring, logging a 3.00 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 21 innings of work. While he has limited exposure to Padres hitters, they have struggled in a small sample, going just 4-for-23 (.174) with a .435 OPS against him. Atlanta’s bullpen is also in relatively good shape, with only Dylan Lee having worked the first two games of the series, and his workload (21 pitches) was light enough that he could be available again on Saturday.

San Diego will send Randy Vasquez to the mound, and while he showed flashes of potential last season, he’ll be facing a Braves lineup that has had success against him in the past. Current Atlanta hitters have gone 11-for-39 (.282) with five extra-base hits and a .795 OPS against Vasquez, suggesting they match up well against him. Additionally, the Padres' bullpen has been worked hard in the first two games of this series, with three key relievers having pitched in both contests, each throwing over 35 pitches. That could leave San Diego vulnerable late in the game if Vasquez isn’t able to pitch deep. Look for the Braves to capitalize on their edge both on the mound and at the plate as they snap their mini skid in dominant fashion.

Take Atlanta -1.5 runs. Projected score: Atlanta 6, San Diego 3.

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Detroit at 2:35 pm et on Wednesday.

I like the way this matchup sets up for the Astros as they send Hunter Brown to the hill against Tyler Holton of the Tigers in what amounts to a 'bullpen game' from Detroit.

Brown has held current Tigers hitters to just 17-for-64 (.266) at the plate with one home run and an OPS of .672. The young right-hander turned in a terrific regular season, logging a 3.58 FIP and 1.27 WHIP in 30 starts.

While the Tigers bullpen has been solid, they did have to use four relievers in yesterday's series-opening victory.

Note that Detroit ranks 20th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days while Houston sits 10th. Rather than lay the heavy chalk, we'll lay the extra run with Houston. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants have lit up the Diamondbacks through the first two games of this series but I look for Arizona to answer back on Wednesday night.

While San Francisco does rank sixth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days, it's not as if Arizona is far behind, ranking eighth over that stretch.

Mason Black will get the start for the Giants on Wednesday. San Francisco has lost three of his last four starts and he owns a 5.36 FIP and 1.52 WHIP on the campaign.

Zac Gallen counters for Arizona. While he hasn't necessarily had his best stuff over his last couple of outings, the D'Backs have kept on winning with him on the mound. Note that they're a perfect 4-0 in his last four trips to the hill. Current Giants hitters are just 25-for-115 (.217) with a .642 OPS against him. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers won on a Shohei Ohtani walk-off grand slam last night, saving their run-line backers on the game's final pitch. I look for Saturday's result to be a little more straight-forward as Los Angeles sends Clayton Kershaw to the hill against Taj Bradley of Tampa Bay.

Kershaw is locked in right now, having allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts. On the season he has posted a 3.00 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, making only five starts to date. I see that as a positive as he has a live arm down the stretch. Of course, it helps that the Dodgers bullpen will have all hands on deck after using just three relievers for 35 pitches last night (and following an off day on Thursday). Kershaw will be happy to be facing the Rays as he's held their current hitters to just six hits in 32 at-bats (.188) with a .438 OPS.

Bradley is approaching his career-high in innings pitched (he'll likely eclipse that mark on Saturday). We've seen him sputter lately, allowing a whopping 18 earned runs over his last four outings. Note that Tampa Bay lost all four of those contests with each defeat coming by at least three runs. Current Dodgers hitters are 4-for-14 (.286) off of Bradley with a .714 OPS. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The Mets are hitting right now and that was on full display in last night's series-opening win here in San Diego. The Padres have been hot at the plate as well, however, and I look for them to bounce back on Friday night.

Paul Blackburn gets the start for New York. A key piece brought over prior to the trade deadline, he's been mostly effective in his four starts since joining the Mets. However, it's worth noting that he's faced the Angels, Rockies, A's and Marlins. Current Padres hitters are 7-for-21 (.333) off of Blackburn with a .745 OPS. San Diego ranks eighth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days.

Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He continues to get stretched out after being on the I.L. for a couple of months. In two starts since rejoining the rotation, Musgrove has allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. Current Mets hitters are 26-for-121 (.215) off of the veteran right-hander with a .663 OPS.

Perhaps no team boasts as deep of a bullpen as the Padres and they look like they'll have all hands on deck after using just two relievers last night. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Reds cruised to victory in the opener of this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday at Rogers Centre.

Carson Spiers gets the start for Cincinnati. The wheels have come off a little bit over his last three starts as he has been tagged for 13 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings pitched. The Jays have actually been heating up at the plate lately, checking in 12th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days (that's just one spot behind the Reds).

Jose Berrios will counter for Toronto. He has allowed one earned run in seven innings in three of his last four outings. Berrios owns terrific career numbers against current Reds hitters as they've gone 11-for-46 (.239) off of him with a .553 OPS.

The Jays bullpen enters in better shape as the Reds relief corps includes three pitchers that have thrown 30+ pitches over the last three days. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

Braves starter Charlie Morton made his big league debut back in 2008. He can navigate a rough stretch at this stage of the season and it's worth noting that he's pitched just 114 2/3 innings so far this year - this after working 140+ innings in six of the last seven seasons. In other words, I still think there's plenty of life in his arm and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back from a miserable outing against the Brewers last week. Keep in mind, he's just one start removed from allowing no earned runs over six innings in a 4-2 victory over the Marlins. The Giants have been considerably weaker offensively against right-handed pitching compared to left-handed this season, ranking 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average vs. righties.

The Braves have climbed inside the top-10 in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching (at the time of writing) and they'll face another one in Kyle Harrison on Tuesday. Also note that Atlanta ranks top-three in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days (also at the time of writing). Harrison has eclipsed the 100-inning mark in his sophomore campaign (he worked only 34 2/3 big league innings last year). Over Harrison's last two starts he has given up eight earned runs on 11 hits over 8 1/3 innings. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

The Cubs have turned things around and even if a Wild Card spot is virtually out of reach, I look for them to continue to relish playing the role of spoiler down the stretch.

Chicago has shown steady improvement offensively, rising in the weighted on base average rankings over the last 30, 14 and 7 days. In fact, over the last week, the Cubs rank seventh in the majors in that category. That's in stark contrast to the Guardians, who have been scuffing their heels offensively for weeks and rank 29th in wOBA over the last seven days - only the White Sox have been worse over that stretch.

Cleveland doesn't figure to turn things around against Cubs ace Shota Imanaga. He'll be starting on full rest (five days) following a masterful performance against the Twins last week (seven innings, two earned runs allowed, 10 strikeouts). The Cubs are 5-0 in his last five outings and 9-2 in his last 11.

Ben Lively will counter for the Guardians. He's already 20-plus innings north of his career-high. We have seen some regression lately - he allowed four earned runs in five innings in his most recent start. Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days). On the season, Lively owns a 4.76 FIP to go along with a 1.17 WHIP.

Finally, I'll note that the Guardians bullpen is in rough shape with three key relievers having worked each of the last two days. Meanwhile, the Cubs had a rare Sunday off following a two-game set with the White Sox. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston -1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

This sets up as a bullpen game for the Red Sox with Josh Winckowski starting as they look to rebound from last night's lopsided defeat. I like their chances of doing just that.

Note that Boston has been red hot offensively, not just in recent days but over the last several weeks and month. In fact, the Red Sox rank top-five or better in weighted on base average over the last 30, 14 and 7 days. In stark contrast, Houston - despite last night's outburst - ranks 17th in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days.

Spencer Arrighetti will take the ball for the Astros. He's coming off a fantastic start against the Rays as he allowed just one earned run and struck out 12 over six innings. Still, the Astros have lost each of his last six starts going back to the beginning of July. Also note that he owns an ERA more than two runs higher on the road compared to at home this season (he's benefited from making three of his last four starts at home).

Winckowski figures to see just an inning or two for the Red Sox. That's just fine as their bullpen is exceptionally deep. While they did use four relievers last night, none of them threw more than 20 pitches and they had an off day on Thursday. Take Boston -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Royals to bounce back on Wednesday.

Kutter Crawford will get the start for Boston. He's been struggling lately, allowing 16 earned runs in his last three starts, covering a span of just 15 innings. Note that the Royals have been considerably better offensively against right-handers compared to left-handers this season, ranking 13th in the majors in weighted on base average vs. righties.

Cole Ragans will counter for Kansas City. He bounced back with a better outing in Detroit last week. He's been terrific overall this season, logging a 2.82 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 23 starts. Note that current Red Sox hitters are just 5-for-33 (.152) against him with a .412 OPS.

The Red Sox used four different relievers in the first game of this series on Monday and five in last night's contest. The Royals should have all hands on deck in their bullpen after Kris Bubic worked in long relief last night. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday.

Freddy Peralta has fallen on hard times for the Brewers. Milwaukee has lost four of his last five starts with each of those defeats coming by multiple runs. While his overall numbers aren't bad this season, he's given up 12 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings of work since the beginning of July. He catches the Braves in a bounce-back spot once again here after Atlanta prevailed 6-2 against him last week in Milwaukee.

Chris Sale has earned N.L. Cy Young Award consideration, recording a 2.32 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season. The Braves have won four of his last five starts with each of those victories coming by multiple runs. He'll be happy to be facing the Brewers again as current Milwaukee hitters are just 12-for-58 (.207) against him with a .556 OPS. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

Reds starter Hunter Greene has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month. He's made four starts since the start of July, allowing nine hits and one earned run in 27 innings of work over that stretch. The right-hander is allowing a ridiculous 5.9 hits per nine innings this season. Current Giants hitters haven't seen much of Greene but have struggled when they have gone against him - 4-for-18 (.222) with a .652 OPS. While the Giants have performed reasonably well at the plate lately, they check in 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season (at the time of writing).

Left-hander Kyle Harrison will get the call for San Francisco. He was masterful in his most recent start against the Rockies and the Giants won that game in blowout fashion. Note that the Giants haven't won consecutive Harrison starts since May - they're 3-4 in his last seven outings. Harrison has dealt with command issues on the road this season, where he owns a 1.39 WHIP compared to 1.18 at home. Note that San Francisco has lost each of Harrison's last three road starts. I'm anticipating regression from Harrison in upcoming outings as he eclipses the 100-inning mark for the first time in his big league career (that's likely to happen on Saturday). Take Cincinnati -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Thursday.

After going in-depth on this matchup with my play on the total, I'll also take a flyer on the Angels laying the extra run at a generous price.

Ryan Feltner has pitched exceptionally well for the Rockies over the last month or so. He's not really the problem. The issue is the Colorado offense, which checks in 30th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days and 28th in that department on the road this season. The Rockies have lost each of Feltner's last six starts with four of those defeats coming by two runs or more.

Carson Fulmer gets the call for the Angels. He's coming off consecutive rocky outings against the then-red hot Athletics but has been serviceable as a starter when given a rather short leash. The Angels bullpen behind Fulmer did use four relievers last night but none of them threw 20 or more pitches, nor did they work each of the last two games.

Despite last night's no-show at the plate, Los Angeles has shown some improvement offensively of late, ranking 14th in baseball in wOBA over the last seven days. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Dylan Cease was so close to winning a Cy Young Award two seasons ago as he finished runner-up in the American League. He's in the conversation again this season - this time in the National League - and is currently enjoying one of the best stretches we've ever seen from a starting pitcher. Over his last three outings, Cease has allowed just two hits while striking out 30 and walking seven in 23 innings of work. Of course, he's coming off a no-hitter last time out against the Nationals. We'll support him with a potential generous return on the run-line on Wednesday.

Note that current Dodgers hitters are just 15-for-72 (.208) against Cease with a .662 OPS.

Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for the Dodgers as he makes his second start since returning from injury. He was good in his season debut last week, but certainly not great. It's going to take some time for Kershaw to work himself back up, at least that's the way I see things unfolding. Current Padres hitters are a respectable 41-for-158 (.259) against Kershaw with a .744 OPS. They'll be facing a somewhat downgraded version of the future Hall of Famer on Wednesday.

The Padres entered Tuesday's action ranked fourth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The Dodgers were 12th over the same stretch. Both teams are 'all-in' after a busy trade deadline period. Look for the Padres to gain the upper hand on this night. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over New York at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Phillies to answer back in Wednesday's matinee series finale.

Nestor Cortes will get the start for New York. Things haven't gone well for the left-hander in recent starts and he'll be facing a Phillies club that ranks best in baseball in weighted on base average against southpaw pitching this season. Note that Cortes has been tagged for 15 earned runs in just 13 1/3 innings of work over his last three starts. He'll be fighting the weather conditions on Wednesday as well with the wind forecast to be blowing out to right-center along with hitter-friendly temperatures in the mid-to-high 80's.

Fellow left-hander Cristopher Sanchez takes the ball for the Phillies. The Yanks check in 15th in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Sanchez is quietly having a fantastic campaign having posted a 2.70 FIP and 1.26 WHIP. He's a ground-ball pitcher which should serve him well given the hot, windy conditions on Wednesday.

Both bullpens got worked over in last night's extra innings affair. Both are also fairly deep relief corps so I'm not overly concerned in that regard. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Braves took the final two games of their four-game set against the division rival Mets over the weekend. Now they face the prospect of a bullpen game as they deal with the absence of starter Reynaldo Lopez and give Grant Holmes the ball in his place in the rotation.

Holmes has pitched well in relief since getting the call to the bigs in late June. He faces a Brewers offense that hasn't been awful but has certainly been treading water at best over the last couple of weeks. Milwaukee still ranks sixth in baseball in weighted on base average at home this season and I see this as a potential breakout spot on Monday.

Colin Rea gets the start for the Brewers. He has quietly been one of their most reliable starters over the last couple of months. Note that Milwaukee has won six of his last eight starts overall. Current Braves hitters haven't seen much of Rea but have struggled in the 18 collective at-bats they've had, with only three hits.

The bullpens are in similar shape entering this series. We'll simply give the edge to the Brewers based on the starting pitching matchup, along with the fact that they're at home, noting the Braves rank 22nd in the majors in wOBA on the road this season. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

NOTE: The Mariners have flipped from the short favorite to underdog since this play was posted. As a result, they're no longer -1.5 on the standard run-line. They can still be played on the alternate run-line of -1.5, or a moneyline play in an underdog role works fine as well.

The Mariners desperately needed to turn things around over the weekend in Chicago and they did just that, sweeping the lowly White Sox to hold serve in the American League West. Now they go on to Boston for what projects to be a much tougher series against the Red Sox. With that being said, I believe Monday's series-opener features a pitching mismatch that favors Seattle.

Logan Gilbert will get the start for the Mariners. He can't take the blame for losses in his last two starts, both against the Angels, as the M's offense simply didn't show up. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Note that Seattle's offense has started to heat up again, rising to 12th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days (at the time of writing). Gilbert has bordered on Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for much of the season, logging a 3.28 FIP and 0.86 WHIP in 139 innings of work.

Nick Pivetta counters for Boston. He got lit up by the Rockies last week and the Red Sox have lost each of his last three starts, all by multiple runs. Pivetta's overall numbers aren't all that bad this season but the splits aren't good entering Monday's contest. Note that the right-hander has posted a 5.50 ERA at home (compared to 3.75 on the road). His ERA is also nearly a run higher at night compared to in daytime starts. Current Mariners hitters have loved what they've seen from Pivetta, batting .311 with a 1.122 OPS off of him in 61 career at-bats.

The bullpens may be a wash on paper but I'm higher on Seattle's relief corps and they weren't all that taxed in their lopsided weekend series against the White Sox (in stark contrast to the Red Sox who were involved in a grind of a series against the rival Yankees). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Guardians took the opener of this series last night but I look for the Phillies to bounce back on Saturday.

Rookie (I use that term loosely as he was a 2015 draft pick of the Texas Rangers) Tyler Phillips will take the ball for Philadelphia. He's made the most of his opportunity with the big club so far, notching two wins in as many starts (he lasted six innings in both of those games). The Guardians bats have been relatively quite for the last month or so - this isn't all that bad of a matchup for Phillips.

Carlos Carrasco gets another turn in the Guardians starting rotation but you do wonder if patience is starting to wear thin. Carrasco owns a disastrous 3-8 record to go along with a 4.68 FIP and 1.38 WHIP despite pitching for a division-leading ball club. The Guardians were willing to bring him back to Cleveland after he recorded a FIP approaching six and a 1.70 WHIP in 20 starts for the Mets last season.

The Phillies are one of the few teams that can go pitch-for-pitch with the Guardians bullpen, boasting their own terrific relief corps. Both 'pens are in reasonably good shape entering this contest. I simply feel we'll see Philadelphia's bats come to life against Carrasco and ultimately cruise to a convincing win. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

NOTE: The line has shifted in the Mets favor so Braves -1.5 is only available as a reverse run-line play now. I do like that play but if the moneyline is a more straightforward option for you, that works as well.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves as they look to snap their skid and finally grab a game against the Mets on Saturday.

The starting pitching matchup sets up well for Atlanta as it sends rookie Spencer Schewellenbach to the hill against Tylor Megill of New York.

The Braves have won two of Schwellenbach's last three starts. He owns a 3.83 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in nine starts this season.

Megill hasn't enjoyed the same success. The Mets have lost three of his last four starts. While he has posted a solid 3.32 FIP, his 1.44 WHIP leaves a lot to be desired.

This is obviously a big game for Atlanta as it looks to get back on track in this divisional series. Look for the Braves to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

This is a pitching mismatch as the Cubs trot out potential trade chip Kyle Hendricks against Brady Singer of the Royals.

Hendricks may be an attractive piece for a contending team looking for another experienced arm for the stretch run but that's about it. He's been awful this season, logging a 5.43 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. The Cubs have lost 14 of his 18 starts this season. You would have to go all the way back to mid-April to find the last one-run loss in that bunch so we're not all that concerned with laying the extra run with the Royals here.

Singer has quietly enjoyed a terrific campaign, sporting a 3.86 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the White Sox. The Cubs aren't the White Sox but they haven't proven to be much better at the plate, especially lately as they check in ranked just one spot higher (in 29th place) in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants have dropped the first two games of this series in a pair of tightly-contested affairs. I look for San Francisco to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion on Sunday.

Rockies starter Austin Gomber has been the cure for many teams' ails over the course of the season. He checks in 2-6 with a 4.61 ERA. Incredibly, Gomber remains in the rotation despite allowing four earned runs or more in six of his last seven outings.

Rookie Hayden Birdsong is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in four starts for the Giants this season. He deserved a better fate in his most recent outing as he held the Twins to just one earned run on two hits over five innings in a 4-2 Giants loss.

The Giants bullpen is in excellent shape after using only two relievers for 29 total pitches in last night's game. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has inexplicably strung together three straight team wins in his last three starts. In fact, you would have to go back five Freeland outings to find the last time the Rockies lost by more than a single run with him on the hill. We'll go against that trend on Saturday, however, as I still feel that Freeland is one of baseball's weakest starters and enters with a miserable track record against current Giants hitters.

San Francisco will be happy to be facing Freeland, noting that its current hitters have gone 30-for-91 (.330) against him with a .906 OPS. Despite his recent success, the Rockies left-hander still owns a 4.29 FIP and 1.62 WHIP this season.

It's a much different story for Giants starter Logan Webb. The N.L. All-Star checks in with a 2.80 FIP and 1.24 WHIP but will be looking to bounce back following an ugly outing against Toronto on July 10th. Note that current Rockies hitters are just 37-for-154 (.240) off of Webb with a .611 OPS.

The Giants were serious about securing a win in a tight ball game last night as they used four key relievers (and ultimately fell short). That's of little consequence here with the All-Star break barely in the rear-view mirror. It should be all hands on deck for the San Francisco 'pen on Saturday. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mariners got their weekend series with the Blue Jays off to a positive start before dropping consecutive games on Saturday and Sunday. I look for them to bounce back as they head to San Diego for an Interleague series against the Padres on Tuesday.

Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He didn't have his best stuff last time out and paid the price against an elite Orioles offense, allowing four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. On the season, he owns a 3.43 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Current Padres hitters are 7-for-48 against Gilbert with a putrid .441 OPS. Note that San Diego ranks 17th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days, cooling from a recent red hot run at the plate.

Rookie Adam Mazur will counter for San Diego. He remains in the starting rotation out of necessity only as things certainly haven't gone well for him at the big league level. Mazur checks in sporting a 5.45 FIP and 1.82 WHIP in six starts this season.

Any time we can back the Mariners terrific bullpen when fully rested (they were off Monday), we'll give them strong consideration. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The A's are coming off a series sweep of the division-rival Angels but I expect them to get snapped back to reality by the Orioles on Friday night.

Baltimore is coming off a loss in Seattle yesterday as the Mariners avoided the sweep thanks to a late game offensive surge. I don't think the O's will have such difficulty against an A's club that ranks in the bottom-third of the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days.

The O's will be in their preferred position on Friday and that's facing a left-handed starter in Hogan Harris. Note that Baltimore ranks fourth in baseball in wOBA vs. southpaw pitching this season. Only the Mets have recorded a better wOBA overall over the last two weeks.

Albert Suarez will look to continue his magical season for the O's. Last time out he tossed six innings of three-hit shutout ball against the Rangers, lowering his FIP to 3.29 and his WHIP to 1.25.

You could argue that the A's bullpen is in far better shape following consecutive masterful outings from their starters but I'm not sure that it will matter on this occasion as the O's bats should come to life at the Coliseum. Take Baltimore -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Marlins eked out a 2-1 victory over the Royals last night, evening this series at a game apiece entering Wednesday's rubber match. I like Kansas City's chances of securing a comfortable victory in this one.

Valente Bellozo is slated to get his first big league start for the Marlins. He has posted respectable numbers at the Double-A level this season but didn't fare so well when levelling up to Triple-A, recording a 5.66 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings of work. Bellozo has been toiling around the Minors since 2018, never getting the call to the big club so while this is a huge game for him, I don't expect the Royals - desperate to break out of their funk at the plate - will take it easy on him.

Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.12 FIP and 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts this season. In eight home outings he has logged a 3.04 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

While the Marlins did get the win last night, it had little to do with their offensive production. In a game they'll likely have to patch together on the mound, I suspect they'll need to score a lot more to stay competitive. The problem is they rank 29th in baseball in weighted on-base average this season (only the White Sox are worse). Royals roll. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

This game should serve as a 'slump-buster' for the Royals offense as they look to tee off on the Marlins pitching staff on a night where the temperature is expected to approach or eclipse 100 degrees while the wind blows out to left-center.

Roddery Munoz will get the start for the Marlins. He hasn't just been bad this season, he's been downright awful, sporting a 7.46 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in six starts. The Royals rank second in baseball in team OPS at home this season, trailing only the Astros in that category.

Cole Ragans owns a stellar 2.63 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including one complete game. While he hasn't had his best stuff in recent outings, he's still hung in there to go at least six innings in four straight starts. Note that the Marlins rank last (30th) in the majors in team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season.

While the Marlins were forced to use four relievers in yesterday's game, the Royals deployed only two relief arms for a combined 27 pitches. This will be an 'all hands on deck' situation for the Kansas City 'pen but I project things to be out of hand by that point anyway. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Royals have lost three of Cole Ragans' last four starts but that's been little fault of his as he continues to pitch well having recorded a 2.63 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts (including a complete game) this season. Note that current A's are a collective 2-for-35 off of Ragans.

Luis Medina will counter for Oakland. He's been awful in his last two outings, seeing his FIP rise to 4.26 and his WHIP to 1.50. Other than Adam Frazier, the Royals will be getting their first look at Medina but that hasn't stopped other teams from teeing off on him in similar situations.

We've seen regression from both bullpens lately. I like the Royals here noting that Ragans has consistently been able to work deep into ball games, giving that 'pen a break. Ragans has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine outings. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

I'll take a flyer on the Padres laying the extra run at a generous return on Sunday afternoon in Queens.

San Diego's offense has been awful in this series but is in line for a bounce-back here as it faces back-of-the-rotation starter Tylor Megill. The Mets right-hander sports an impressive 2.68 FIP this season but he's only made five starts and that number is due in large part to the fact that he's allowed only one home run to date. I do think regression is coming in that regard, noting that for his career he has given up 1.4 home runs per nine innings. In two starts this month, Megill has been tagged for 12 hits and seven earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

Note that the Padres, while dormant in this series so far, do rank sixth in the majors in day game OPS this season. They're also seventh in road OPS.

Dylan Cease was brought to San Diego for starts like this as he looks to turn his team's fortunes around. Cease has been terrific in 14 starts this season, sporting a 3.02 FIP and 1.00 WHIP. Current Mets hitters are just 7-for-31 off of him with only two extra-base hits (both home runs off the bat of Francisco Lindor).

I like the way the Padres bullpen is set up for this game with only four different relievers having pitched in the last three days. New York's relief corps has been taxed lately, not having benefited from an off day on Thursday like San Diego. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets were stymied in last night's return from across the pond as they dropped a 4-2 decision against Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins. I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday as they send David Peterson to the hill against Braxton Garrett.

Peterson has had one bad start and one good one since returning to the bigs this season. The good news here is that he faces a Marlins club that ranks 30th in the majors in team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. Current Marlins hitters are just 8-for-42 off of Peterson without a single extra-base hit.

Garrett turned in a masterful four-hit complete game shutout three starts back in Arizona but has given up 12 hits and six earned runs while striking out only five in 7 2/3 innings in his last two trips to the hill. Current Mets hitters are 26-for-93 off of Garrett. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have combined for five home runs off of him.

Neither bullpen has been all that great this season but we'll give the edge to the Mets, noting that the Marlins have had a miserable time trying to close out games with only nine saves converted and 12 blown. On a night where the wind is forecast to be blowing out to left, I look for the Mets offense to bust out and for this one to not be all that close. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Mariners nearly let the Royals off the hook yesterday, blowing a 3-1 lead with nobody on and two outs in the ninth inning but eventually salvaged the series finale with a 6-4 victory in extra innings. That gives them something to build on as they return home to host the lowly White Sox on Monday.

Seattle has dropped Logan Gilbert's last three starts but it certainly hasn't been his fault. He has worked at least six innings in six straight starts and at least into the sixth inning in an incredible 14 of his last 15 outings. Here at home, Gilbert has posted a 3.03 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Current White Sox hitters are just 9-for-44 off of the right-hander with three extra base hits.

Erick Fedde will counter for Chicago. He got off to a fine start this season but hasn't been good over his last two outings, allowing seven earned runs on a whopping 15 hits over just 10 innings of work. He owns a 5.70 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven road outings this season.

The White Sox had to empty the tank so to speak in terms of their bullpen over the weekend. It's a different story for the Mariners who welcomed closer Andres Munoz back in the fold (he pitched a scoreless eighth inning yesterday). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

I'll lay the extra run on the reverse run-line to get the favorable price with the Cubs in this massive bounce-back spot on Saturday. Chicago has dropped the first two games in this series but I like its chances of rebounding against Andrew Abbott and the Reds on Saturday.

Cubs rookie Ben Brown has shown flashes of brilliance in the early going this season. He was roughed up in his most recent start which was made on short rest (four days). The good news is, he threw only 76 pitches in that contest and now gets back on regular schedule. Note that Brown has recorded a 2.63 FIP and 1.09 WHIP this season.

Abbott is a 'what you see is what you get' type of pitcher at this point. He logged a 4.20 FIP last season and has posted a 4.72 FIP this year. Abbott will be pitching on short rest here, having thrown at least 92 pitches in each of his last four outings.

The Cubs bullpen is set up well after only Drew Smyly was called on (to throw eight pitches) in last night's game. In fact, Cubs relievers have combined to throw only 34 pitches in this series. Reds closer Alexis Diaz has now pitched in each of the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Saturday. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

Are the Pirates punting this game following last night's shutout victory? Not really, but it is likely setting up as a bullpen game with Carmen Mlodzinski starting on Saturday afternoon. I'll take my chances laying the extra run for a favorable return with the Twins as they look to snap back following four straight losses.

Simeon Woods-Richardson will get the call for Minnesota. He has logged a 3.57 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in nine starts this season - dare I say, he's the best the Twins have to offer right now. Also note that Woods-Richardson should have plenty of life in his arm having thrown fewer than 80 pitches in three of his last four starts including only 66 in hist most recent start. He'll be pitching on full (five days) rest in this matchup.

On a relatively hot June afternoon in Pittsburgh, with the wind blowing out to left, I like Minnesota's chances of a big offensive bounce-back. Keep in mind, we have a decisive bullpen advantage here as well. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

The time is now for the Astros to start making a move back to the .500 mark as they currently sit seven games below but still well within striking distance of the first-place Mariners in the A.L. West. With 99 games left on the schedule, it's still early in the season all things considered but Houston has dug itself enough of a hole that it has little time to waste.

I like the Astros chances of busting up the Angels on Friday night in Anaheim. While Los Angeles did just complete a three-game sweep of the Padres, it actually mustered just 15 hits and 11 runs in that series. In fact, the Halos rank 30th (that's last place) in the majors in team OPS over the last seven days (in stark contrast, the Astros are 10th).

Framber Valdez will have revenge on his mind after getting roughed up in his lone previous start against Los Angeles this season. Valdez is a guy the Astros will be counting on to help lead the turnaround and he does have the tools to do it, noting he has quietly recorded a 3.94 FIP and 1.24 WHIP this season (those are in line with his career numbers of 3.64 and 1.22). This isn't a bad matchup for Valdez noting that the Astros are 10-5 in his 15 previous outings against them and he has logged a 4.24 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Griffin Canning will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 6.99 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in seven career starts against Houston. Canning was sharp in his most recent outing in Seattle but is a prototypical back-of-the-rotation type of starter with a 5.30 FIP and 1.37 WHIP on the season (compared to his 4.66 and 1.31 career numbers).

Houston holds the bullpen edge in this matchup and both teams were idle yesterday so it will be all hands on deck in the later innings on Friday. Over the last seven games, Astros relievers have logged a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Baltimore -1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 6:50 pm et on Friday.

The Orioles inexplicably dropped the last two games of their series in Toronto (after taking the first two in blowout fashion). While Baltimore has been up-and-down lately, it is still an elite American League team and I look for it to rout the Rays in St. Petersburg on Friday.

Cole Irvin will get the start for the O's. With Kyle Bradish likely headed to the I.L., Irvin is one of Baltimore's starters that will need to pick up the slack. He appears ready for the job, noting that he has logged a solid 3.66 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 11 appearances, including nine starts, this season.

While Baltimore has the disadvantage of having played yesterday (Tampa Bay was off), it did manage to keep its bullpen in good shape entering this series with only Keegan Akin and Dillon Tate pressed into duty on Thursday.

Tampa Bay checks in off two-game sweep of the Marlins in Miami. The Rays haven't been nearly as consistent as we've become accustomed to seeing this season, posting a 31-31 record. Here at the Trop, they've managed to go just 17-18.

Aaron Civale gets the call for the Rays on the mound. While Tampa Bay has been terrific at evaluating pitching talent over the years, it might have missed when it acquired Civale from the Guardians last year. He made 10 starts for the Rays last season, posting a 5.36 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In 12 outings this season Civale has logged a 5.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Current Orioles hitters have lit up Civale to the tune of 20 hits in 60 at bats including nine extra base hits and seven home runs. Take Baltimore -1.5 runs (8*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Dodgers have dropped the first two games of this series but will have a chance to get some retribution on Thursday.

Bailey Falter will start for Pittsburgh and he's been a bit of an enigma this season, logging a 4.52 FIP and a 0.95 WHIP. One thing we know is that the Dodgers love to hit left-handers, ranking second in the majors in team OPS vs. southpaw pitchers this season.

Behind Falter is a Pirates bullpen that has been overworked over the last couple of nights. Pittsburgh threw five relievers at Los Angeles last night as it fought off a comeback charge.

Walker Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers. He's had an up-and-down return to the starting rotation, recording a 5.42 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. We have seen flashes of brilliance, however, and we do know what the right-hander is capable of. I expect better days ahead. He draws a favorable matchup here as the Pirates rank 27th in baseball in team OPS over the last seven days.

Los Angeles' bullpen is set up fairly well for this one with no fewer than four relievers having not worked at all since Sunday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

Now that the Orioles have snapped their losing skid (with an 8-6 win here in Chicago last night), we'll comfortably get behind them as they look to start a winning streak of their own on Friday. Baltimore ace Corbin Burnes will take the ball. As a member of the Brewers, Burnes finished at least top-eight in N.L. Cy Young Award voting in each of the last four seasons. While he got off to a bit of a slow start with his new club this season, he's since locked in, lowering his FIP to 3.19 and his WHIP to 1.02. I like his chances of continued success on Friday as he squares off against a White Sox team that ranks 27th in team OPS over the last seven days. Baltimore's offense awoke from its slumber in last night's game and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance here. Chris Flexen start for the White Sox. He owns a pedestrian 4.67 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 10 appearances this season. Take Baltimore -1.5 runs (10*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Astros righted the ship with a pair of wins over the Rockies in Mexico and now return home to host the Guardians on Tuesday night. Houston has been one of baseball's biggest disappointments so far this season but it's still very early. I like their chances of teeing off on Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. Note that Carrasco owns a lofty 5.04 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in five starts this season. Current Astros hitters have gone a combined 35-for-127 against him including seven home runs. Of note, Yordan Alvarez is 2-for-2 with two home runs off of Carrasco. With all of that experience there's plenty of knowledge to impart up and down the lineup. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown against the Guardians. Only Ramon Laureano has seen him before and he's gone 0-for-5. Brown isn't having a banner sophomore campaign by any means but I'll take a flyer on him here noting that he has pitched better in his last two outings including a home start against the Braves in which he gave up just two earned runs over six innings. The Guardians bullpen has been superior to that of the Astros this season but over the last week or so, it's been more of a wash. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Oakland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday.

We'll fade Alex Wood and the A's on Saturday as they challenge Logan Allen and the Guardians in Game 2 of their series in Cleveland. Wood's best days are obviously behind him. He's made four starts this season, logging a 5.54 FIP and 2.10 WHIP. Logan Allen hasn't exactly been at his best for the Guardians but the potential is there and I look for him to bounce back from consecutive rough outings here at home. Note that he has posted a 1.36 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work this season. The A's are off to a fine start this season - certainly better than most expected - but I'm going to be looking to fade them in the coming weeks. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

I like the Dodgers to rebound from last night's loss to the Mets and two losses in a row overall. Jose Butto has been impressive for the Mets so far this season but I do think he's in for some considerable regression moving forward. The hits simply haven't been falling in against him as he has held the opposition to 3.8 hits per nine innings. Keep in mind, for his limited big league career, Butto has allowed 7.3 hits per nine frames. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has also got off to a solid start this season with a 2.18 FIP and 1.57 WHIP despite allowing 11.0 hits per nine innings. The Mets bullpen didn't have to do a lot of heavy lifting in last night's game but I think we'll see a different story on Saturday as the Dodgers offense figures to erupt off a couple of subpar performances. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday.

Kevin Gausman has been awful in his last two starts. In fact, he's been pretty bad going all the way back to last August save for a few starts. When things have gone south for the veteran right-hander it's been in spectacular fashion. Note that in Gausman's last seven team losses, the opposition has plated a whopping 51 runs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for the Yankees to rebound on Wednesday afternoon. Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. He's coming off a rocky outing of his own but still owns a respectable 3.42 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the campaign. He'll of course be up for this matchup against his former team. The Jays bullpen has held up well in this series so far but I think it's only a matter of time before it gets blown up. We'll bet that today is the day. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Orioles have elected to give Bruce Zimmermann the start on Wednesday as they look to wrap up a series sweep of the Twins. This is a starting pitching mismatch as Minnesota will hand the ball to its ace Pablo Lopez. We'll lay the extra run in this spot as the Twins are well-positioned to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion, noting their bullpen continues to pitch well having recorded a collective 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cubs have now won three games in a row but I expect them to fall flat on Tuesday as they send Kyle Hendricks to the mound against Tommy Henry. This likely amounts to a bullpen game and in that case I'll favor the Diamondbacks based on the situation alone. Note that Chicago has been involved in four straight tightly-contested games in as many days, using many of its key bullpen arms. There's a good chance this one gets way from the Cubs, especially with Hendricks struggling (he's been one of the worst starters in baseball so far this season) in the early going. While I'm not overly high on Tommy Henry, I do think the attractive plus-money return laying the extra run with the D'Backs is too much to pass up, noting that seven of their eight wins this year have come by at least two runs including all six victories at home. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Braves were high on Reynaldo Lopez when they brought him over from the White Sox and perhaps for good reason. He's proven to be a useful cog in their injury-depleted starting rotation and I look for him to step up and give them another quality outing on Tuesday. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown. He has all the tools to succeed but hasn't been able to put it together in his first season-plus at the big league level. He's been rocked over his last two outings and now faces the daunting task of trying to keep the Braves loaded lineup at bay. Behind Brown is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball so far this season. It was only a matter of time before the Braves pulled away last night and I expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

Marlins starter A.J. Puk has proven he's not ready for a rotation spot, issuing 14 walks while giving up 12 hits in barely 10 innings of work this season. The Giants should be in a foul mood after failing to secure a series win in St. Petersburg yesterday. Kyle Harrison looks like he has the stuff to succeed at the big league level and I'm confident he'll put San Francisco in good position to win by margin on Monday in Miami. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

I think there's a certain feeling of confidence the Cubs have when Japanese import Shota Imanaga takes the hill, even if he is only two outings into his big league career. The Cubs have won his two previous starts by scores of 5-0 and 8-1 and I like their chances of posting another lopsided victory on Saturday in Seattle. The Mariners did take the opener of this series last night as the Cubs bats were silent against Bryce Miller and the Seattle bullpen. This is a fine bounce-back spot as they draw Mariners sophomore starter Emerson Hancock. He has yet to really fine-tune his stuff, as evidenced by a 7.52 FIP and 1.96 WHIP through two outings this season. He's now faced 93 batters at the major league level going back to last season and they've recorded a lofty .325 batting average against him. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants are reeling right now having dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday. Patrick Corbin will get the start for Washington. The beauty of fading Corbin is that as poorly as he's likely to pitch, the Nationals aren't going to lift him from the game early. He's quite simply an innings eater at this stage of his career with a FIP approaching six and a WHIP nearing two already this season. Jordan Hicks continues to get run out as a starter for the Giants and so far, so good. Hicks had a terrific spring and has recorded a sub-2.00 FIP and 0.75 WHIP in 12 regular season innings. We'll lay the extra run in this spot. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Royals let the Orioles off the hook last night, blowing a late 3-0 lead in a 4-3 defeat. I don't expect them to suffer the same fate as they return home to host the White Sox on Thursday. Chicago is coming off a rain-out against the Braves yesterday. Mike Soroka is expected to get the start for the Sox. He was roughed up early in his season debut before settling down. So far so good on the injury front for the right-hander. I do think expectations should be tempered as he is by no means a number two starter for most teams in baseball. Seth Lugo is in his sweet spot as a home favorite, noting his teams have gone 16-5 (+7.6 net games) in his last 21 starts in that role. The White Sox check in a woeful 58-81 (-30.8 net games) in their last 139 contests following a victory, as is the case here. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

Kyle Freeland remains in the Rockies rotation for another year and if his season debut was any indication, it's likely to be another long one for the veteran left-hander. Freeland has had previous success in two career starts at Wrigley Field. Those came prior to 2019 though. We can expect the Cubs bats to tee off on the soft-tossing southpaw on Tuesday. Javier Assad is a typical back-of-the-rotation starter but not a bad one by any means. He'll give Chicago 5-6 effective innings against a stuttering Rockies offense on Tuesday. I'm not interested in paying near -200 prices this early in the season but will lay the extra run for a plus-money return with the Cubbies here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Monday.

This is a smash spot for the Braves off Sunday's loss in Philadelphia. Atlanta sends Charlie Morton to the mound against Chris Flexen of the White Sox. Morton had a terrific Spring posting a sub-3.00 ERA after turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.64 ERA in 2023. Flexen will be pitching for his fourth big league club after stints with the Mets, Mariners and Rockies. Things haven't gone particularly well for the right-hander in any of his previous stops. For his career he owns a 4.97 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in just shy of 500 innings of work. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Dodgers here as they send Clayton Kershaw to the hill against the Giants on Saturday. Kershaw will be happy to be facing rival San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 2.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 55 outings against the Giants. His last four starts against them have resulted in Dodgers victories by scores of 7-4, 5-3, 7-3 and most recent 10-5 back on April 12th. Off a one-run performance last night, this is an ideal rebound spot for Los Angeles, noting that it still averages 5.3 runs per game at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 runs. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Nationals dropped the opener of their three-game series against the White Sox but bounced back by taking the final two games. Washington hasn't had a day off since September 7th and will be right back at it on Thursday as it opens a four-game set against the Braves. Atlanta checks in off another losing series, this one at the hands of the Phillies. Yesterday's defeat came in heart-breaking fashion as the Braves rallied from three runs down to tie the game but ultimately fell in extra innings. I'm confident we'll see left-hander Max Fried guide them out of their slump on Thursday. Fried had his start pushed back due to a blister. A couple of extra days off probably isn't the worst thing at this time of year. While Fried owns an ERA well north of four in 15 career starts against the Nationals, that doesn't tell the whole story. Current Washington hitters have gone a combined 11-for-64 (.172) off of Fried with a grand total of just two extra-base hits. Washington will hand the ball to Jake Irvin. Like a lot of rookie starters, he has labored down the stretch, allowing a whopping 13 walks and nine earned runs over his last four outings. He's never faced any of the current Braves hitters before but I'm willing to bet on Atlanta's loaded lineup inflicting plenty of damage. Atlanta checks in averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs on the road this season. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it does enter this series sporting a collective 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 27 saves converted and only 10 blown on the road this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Astros have continued to scuffle along in this series, dropping the first two games while scoring a grand total of just two runs. I'm confident we see them explode at the plate on Wednesday while starter Hunter Brown bounces back from an ugly outing in his last turn in the starting rotation. Paul Blackburn will take the ball for Oakland. He has pitched well enough for the A's this season and they've actually won seven of his last nine trips to the hill. With that being said, this is a nightmarish matchup for the right-hander. Current Astros hitters have absolutely worn him out going 29-for-101 at the dish including seven home runs (Yordan Alvarez has an eye-popping three home runs in 12 at-bats against him). Blackburn has recorded a less than impressive 18:9 strikeout-to-walk ration against Houston. Also of note, Blackburn will be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through three innings (six hits and three walks allowed) against the Rangers last time out. As I mentioned, Hunter Brown is in bounce-back mode after getting lit up for six earned runs over 4 1/3 innings against the Padres. He'll be happy to see the A's on Wednesday, noting that he owns a perfect 3-0 team record with a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 19 innings of work against them this season. Brent Rooker is one A's hitter than has gotten to him (3-for-6) but he hasn't had a multi-hit game since August 29th and was relegated to the bench last night. While the Astros bullpen remains in terrific shape having yet to eclipse the 500-inning mark on the season, it's a much different story for Oakland's relief corps. A's relievers have logged a whopping 608 1/3 innings (entering last night's action) this season, recording a 5.70 ERA and 1.62 WHIP away from home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).