Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-22 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. To me, this has been a rather uneventful CFL season with things going mostly as planned with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers entering the Grey Cup favored to win once again. While I do think Winnipeg ultimately wins this game, I'm not interested in laying the points here. Instead, I'll call for the Blue Bombers defense to come up big again while both offenses play it conservatively enough to help keep this one 'under' what I consider to be an inflated total. In an odd quirk, this will be the first time either side faces a different opponent in the last four games. By that I mean, the Argos have faced Montreal in each of their last three contests while the Bombers are coming off three consecutive games against the Lions. These two teams faced each other just once during the regular season and the result was a 23-22 Winnipeg victory in Toronto. That game actually eclipsed the closing total by a half-point, so we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total here. I don't believe it's warranted. While Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson avoided costly turnovers against Montreal last week, he has been turnover-prone over the course of the season and I don't believe Toronto wants to put too much on his plate here, especially with veteran RB and former Bomber Andrew Harris in the backfield. The same goes for the Bombers, at least to a certain extent, as they're always comfortable doing just enough offensively while putting most of the load on their elite defense, which has been the class of the CFL this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 6-3 the last nine times the Argos have sought revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent while the 'under' is 18-11 in Winnipeg's last 29 games when installed as a favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-22 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -6 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. We successfully faded the RedBlacks last week but needed a late Alouettes go-ahead score to get there. I expect this week's contest to be a little more straight-forward as Ottawa makes the trip to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Hamilton escaped with a 25-23 victory back in mid-July. It's worth noting that the RedBlacks didn't commit a single penalty in that game and won the turnover battle 4-2 yet still lost. Banged-up and simply playing out the string at this point, I don't expect Ottawa to pick itself up off the mat following last week's loss. The Ti-Cats check in playing some of their best football in an otherwise disappointing season, reeling off consecutive wins over Saskatchewan and Calgary. With Ottawa going completely one-dimensional on offense (it has run the football 21 or fewer times in five straight games), I expect the Ti-Cats defense to feast in this one. Note that the RedBlacks are a woeful 16-30 ATS the last 46 times they've come off a high-scoring game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here, while the Ti-Cats are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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10-14-22 | Montreal -3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. The RedBlacks sold out to stop the run and ultimately pulled off a 24-18 upset victory in Montreal on Monday afternoon (we won with the 'under' in that game). Now it's the Als turn to make the necessary adjustments and get back in the win column with a quick rematch on Friday night in Ottawa. I like their chances of doing just that against a banged-up RedBlacks squad. Ottawa will be without WRs Jaylon Acklin and DeVonte Dedmon after both contributed to Monday's victory in Montreal. That's not the worst news as it will also be missing a pair of key defenders in Patrick Levels and Praise Martin-Oguike. Montreal will obviously have a chip on its shoulder entering this game having dropped two straight meetings against Ottawa. Remember, the Als lost a 38-24 decision at home against the RedBlacks in early September as well. They had no answer for the aforementioned Acklin in that contest as he went off for seven catches and 159 yards. While Ottawa QB Nick Arbuckle has been efficient in those last two matchups against Montreal, he's been more of a 'game manager' than anything else, throwing for 542 yards but just one touchdown. I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as Montreal won the lone previous matchup between these two teams in Ottawa by a 40-33 score back in July. Look for the Als to bounce back on Friday. Take Montreal (10*). |
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10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks blowout loss against the Lions last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they stay on the road to face the Alouettes on Canadian Thanksgiving Monday. Ottawa was in an extremely tough spot last week, playing on a short week after a physically-draining affair against the Argos in which they coughed the football up six times and dropped a 45-14 decision. Not surprisingly, we saw Ottawa's defense look tired against the Lions, ultimately giving up 34 points on over 450 total yards of offense. Here, I do look for that Ottawa defense to regain its footing against a limited Alouettes offense that has gone run-heavy in recent weeks. Even two games back, when Montreal made good on 26-of-35 passes for 244 yards, without turning the ball over once, it still only managed to score 23 points in a win over the Tiger-Cats. It's a similar story for the RedBlacks offense. Two games back they completed 33-of-54 passes for a whopping 368 yards but could only muster 15 points in that aforementioned blowout loss against the Argos. In fact, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Ottawa scored more than 19 points in a game and that came in a wild 38-24 win over these same Alouettes right here in Montreal. Needless to say, the Als have had this rematch circled and I certainly don't expect them to turn in another flat defensive performance as they look to keep their three-game winning streak rolling. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the RedBlacks coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 41.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 51 | 11-48 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Elks and the 'under' in this contest as I expect points to come at a premium, similar to the most recent meeting between these two teams when the Blue Bombers prevailed by a 24-10 score back on July 22nd. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Edmonton allowed 300+ passing yards in a game. Meanwhile, the Blue Bombers have yielded 330+ passing yards in each of their last two games but draw a 'get right' spot defensively against the offensively-challenged Elks here. Note that Winnipeg has held all but one of its seven opponents to 20 points or less at home this season. That being said, the Elks have limited five of their last six opponents to 26 points or less during a strong stretch since late August. They've also gained 100+ rushing yards in each of their last three games and will look to effectively shorten proceedings for their best shot at an upset win here. Note that the 'under' is 22-10 the last 32 times the Blue Bombers have played at home after winning three out of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 49.7 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-08-22 | Edmonton Elks +13 v. Winnipeg | 11-48 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Elks and the 'under' in this contest as I expect points to come at a premium, similar to the most recent meeting between these two teams when the Blue Bombers prevailed by a 24-10 score back on July 22nd. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Edmonton allowed 300+ passing yards in a game. Meanwhile, the Blue Bombers have yielded 330+ passing yards in each of their last two games but draw a 'get right' spot defensively against the offensively-challenged Elks here. Note that Winnipeg has held all but one of its seven opponents to 20 points or less at home this season. That being said, the Elks have limited five of their last six opponents to 26 points or less during a strong stretch since late August. They've also gained 100+ rushing yards in each of their last three games and will look to effectively shorten proceedings for their best shot at an upset win here. Note that the 'under' is 22-10 the last 32 times the Blue Bombers have played at home after winning three out of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 49.7 points. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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10-08-22 | BC v. Toronto OVER 48.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions blowout win over the RedBlacks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as B.C. heads to Toronto to challenge the Argos. Everything has been clicking offensively for the Lions this season and I don't see the Argos defense standing in their way here. Note that even two games back when Toronto forced a whopping six turnovers against a bad RedBlacks offense, it still gave up 15 points. Last week against Calgary the Argos were ripped for 161 yards on just 24 rushing attempts. The good news is, the Argos offense can score, particularly here at home. Prior to last week's ugly 29-2 defeat they had put up 24+ points in four consecutive games. Seeking revenge for a 44-3 loss in B.C. earlier this season I'm confident we'll see Toronto show up and show out offensively in this one, noting that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times it has come off two ATS wins in its last three contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 51.7 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). |
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10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Riders blowout loss to the Blue Bombers last Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as Saskatchewan travels to Hamilton to face the Tiger-Cats. The Riders have allowed their last three opponents to rack up 130+ rushing yards but that's had more to do with negative game script than anything else as they dropped all three contests, with two of them coming in blowout fashion against the Bombers. Hamilton doesn't figure to have the type of offense to take full advantage of the Riders defensive deficiencies, noting that it hasn't had a 100+ rushing yard game since August 12th against Toronto. The Riders pass defense has held up well, allowing just 27-of-49 completions over their last two games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Riders allowed an opponent to pass for over 300 yards. This is actually a higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in June - a game that totalled only 43 points. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 the last 46 times the Riders have played on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 46.9 points. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have seen the 'under' go 34-18 the last 52 times they've sought revenge for a road loss by 17+ points against an opponent, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 48.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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09-30-22 | Ottawa v. BC OVER 46.5 | 19-34 | Win | 100 | 60 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and B.C. at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting between these two teams this season - a contest that resulted in 65 points back in late June. Ottawa has seemingly thrown caution to the wind offensively down the stretch, attempting 33, 31, 40 and 54 passes over its last four games. After scoring just 19 and 15 points in its last two contests, I look for the RedBlacks to bounce back with a big offensive performance here. That's because B.C.'s defense has sagged. It has allowed its three highest rushing yard totals of the season over its last four games. The Lions have also yielded their opponents 24+ pass completions in three of their last five games. Each of their last two games came against the Calgary Stampeders and in those two contests they allowed 53-of-72 passes for 595 yards. Even three games back, when the Lions limited the Alouettes to 16-of-24 passing and only 163 yards through the air, they still gave up 31 points. I understand why we're actually working with a lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these two teams this season and it has a lot to do with the Lions quarterback situation. Regardless, I'm anticipating a shootout. Take the over (8*). |
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09-30-22 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 29 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 8 pm et on Friday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams in the last four games. The first was a low-scoring affair (we won with the 'under' in that contest) as the Blue Bombers eked out a 20-18 win. Playing on a short week, the rematch was a track meet with Winnipeg prevailing by a 54-20 score. Here, I'm anticipating something closer resembling the first matchup as the two teams come off their respective bye weeks. It's worth noting that this total is higher than both of the previous meetings. When we last saw Winnipeg take the field, it was routed by a 48-31 score in Hamilton. Needless to say it will be focused on getting things back under control defensively on Friday. We're still talking about one of the league's best defensive teams. The Riders lost 26-24 against the lowly Elks last time out. Edmonton ran wild in that game, racking up 202 rushing yards on just 22 carries. I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly as Saskatchewan has allowed just 95 rush yards per game this season. It is worth noting that the Riders did hold Edmonton to 13-of-24 passing for 237 yards and haven't allowed an opponent to pass for 300+ yards since August 19th against B.C. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-6 the last 22 times the Riders have played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, with that spot producing an average total of just 44.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Bombers have come off an upset loss by 17+ points, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 47.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on August 20th. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. The Tiger-Cats are fresh off a wild 48-31 upset win over the Blue Bombers last week. Chalk up that offensive explosion as an anomaly as they had been held to 25 points or less in eight of their last 10 games previously and just 56 points combined over their last three contests. The Alouettes delivered their best defensive performance of the season last time out, posting a 31-10 victory over the B.C. Lions before their bye week. It's important to note that the Ti-Cats win last week was boosted by three Winnipeg turnovers, noting that Hamilton actually gained 'only' 97 yards rushing and 327 yards passing despite an ultra-efficient 25-of-32 game through the air. Hamilton has now gone four straight games without rushing for 100+ yards as a team. One-dimensional offenses don't tend to enjoy sustained success in the CFL. Speaking of one-dimensional, the Als aerial attack has been sputtering as they've completed 22 or fewer passes while throwing for 256 yards or less in four of their last five contests. Noting that the Ti-Cats have allowed completions on just 64-of-100 passes while forcing six turnovers over the last three games, Montreal will probably be looking to stay run-centric here. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 147-112 with the Ti-Cats seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 51.1 points. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Hamilton has played on the road following a non-division game, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of only 36.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Calgary v. Edmonton Elks +10 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Calgary at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Elks have very little left to play for as they sit in last place in the West Division. A home game against the rival Stampeders, playing with triple in-season revenge, should get their juices flowing, however. Edmonton kept things close in Monday's matchup between these two teams in Calgary, ultimately losing by just eight points. Note that the Stampeders defense has sagged as the season has gone on. They've now allowed 20+ pass completions in 10 consecutive games. On the flip side, the Stamps have scored 20+ points in four straight contests. They accomplished that feat only once previously this season and went on to score just 19 points in their next game. I saw some positives from the Elks offense on Monday as they gained 74 yards on 18 rush attempts and QB Taylor Cornelius completed 22-of-33 passes for 257 yards - the second straight games in which the Elks threw for 250+ yards. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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09-05-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton UNDER 49.5 | 28-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Hamilton at 1 pm et on Monday. This is a rematch of a meeting between these two teams just last week as the Argos rolled to a 37-20 home victory. The Ti-Cats were marred by four critical turnovers in that game, directly leading to Toronto hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. I expect a more cautious approach from the Hamilton offense here. The Ti-Cats know they can manage the Argos offense - provided they don't hand them excellent field position time and time again. Note that Toronto amassed only 337 total yards in last week's victory. Hamilton has held 10 of its 11 opponents to 90 or fewer rushing yards this season while allowing more than 25 pass completions only once in those 11 contests. While the Argos defense has been vulnerable at times, I'm not convinced the Ti-Cats can take full advantage. Hamilton's ground game has fizzled since ripping off 149 yards against Toronto on August 12th. In two games since, the Ti-Cats have managed just 68 yards on 15 carries against Montreal and 64 yards on 20 attempts last week against the Argos. Take the under (8*). |
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09-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 44.5 | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 100 h 16 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan at 6 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this total sets up on Sunday as the Blue Bombers and Roughriders meet for the first time in the 2022 season. Last year's three matchups between these two teams totalled 31, 42 and 38 points, with the latter result coming in the West Division Final. The Blue Bombers enter this game off one of their worst defensive efforts of the season, yet they still won that game by a 31-29 score over Calgary. In that contest, the Stampeders turned in a near perfect offensive performance, running for 115 yards on 18 attempts while completing 23-of-28 passes for 294 yards. They still 'only' scored 29 points. I don't envision the Riders improving or even coming close to reaching those numbers here. Saskatchewan performed about as well as anyone could have expected as it staged a 23-16 upset at B.C. last week. The Riders ran for 164 yards on 23 rush attempts and completed 19-of-24 passes for 321 yards in that victory. Again, Saskatchewan was that efficient offensively but still scored 'only' 23 points. Winnipeg has leaned heavily on its ground attack this season as its passing game hasn't been quite as effective or explosive as we've seen in years' past. The Bombers have ripped off 118+ rushing yards in four straight games entering this contest. The Riders present a difficult challenge in that regard, however, as they've given up 100+ rushing yards only twice in seven games this season - that's despite the fact that they've lost four of seven contests. This is actually a more critical matchup in the West Division than it might appear at first glance. While the Blue bombers sit atop the West Division at 6-1, with a loss here, the Riders would pull within two games of them noting that these two teams will meet two more times in September. With that in mind, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair, which lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon in Regina. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 49.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I don't believe we're in store for a shootout like we saw between these two teams in their first meeting this season - a game that totalled 73 points back in July. Note that Ottawa has scored more than 25 points in a game only once this season, that coming in that 40-33 loss to Montreal. Meanwhile, the Alouettes had put up 20 points or fewer in three consecutive games before scoring 29 in a one-point win over a sagging Hamilton defense last time out. Montreal hasn't had any semblance of a ground attack this season and now faces an Ottawa squad that has put together a terrific stretch in terms of pass defense, allowing just 14, 16 and 14 pass completions over its last three games. On the flip side, Ottawa attempted 33 passes against a bad Elks defense last week but could only muster 252 passing yards. The RedBlacks have passed for 300+ yards only once this season. That was against the Als but I'm confident Montreal will make the necessary adjustments here. Take the under (8*). |
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08-26-22 | Saskatchewan v. BC UNDER 46.5 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and B.C. at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this rematch of last week's 28-10 Lions victory in Saskatchewan. Part of that has to do with the low-scoring nature of last week's game but more of it has to do with the injury to Lions MVP candidate QB Nathan Rourke. Rourke has done it all for the Lions this season, pacing an offense that has scored 28+ points in five of seven games. Michael O'Connor will take over at quarterback. While he's been in the CFL since 2019, he's only seen limited game action and is by no means the dual threat that Rourke has proven to be (O'Connor has a career seven rush yards on six attempts). He's completed 9-of-12 passes this season but has tossed an interception. The offense will without question be scaled back somewhat this week at least. The Riders meanwhile are dealing with a cluster of ankle injuries at the wide receiver position. That leaves a struggling Cody Fajardo with few reliable options - a recipe for disaster against a fierce Lions defense. Perhaps we'll see the Riders get back to running the football after all but abandoning that part of their offense in last week's blowout loss. That would of course play into our hands by helping to keep the clock moving. Note that the 'under' is 49-25 in the Riders last 74 games when listed as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7.0 points, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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08-26-22 | Hamilton +2.5 v. Toronto | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. These two teams have split a pair of meetings this season with both successfully defending their home field. Here, I look for a reversal of sorts as the Ti-Cats look to take a step toward taking control of the lowly East Division with a key road victory. Hamilton's offense has shown flashes of brilliance to be sure. The Tiger-Cats ground attack has led the way at times but last week they threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. All indications are that QB Dane Evans will be good to go for this one and I expect him to step in and perform well against an Argos defense that has been inconsistent at best. Note that teams that have chosen to run on the Argos have been successful, including the Ti-Cats, who gained 149 yards on just 21 attempts against them just two games back. Offensively, it seems as if Toronto has gone off a cliff. Yes, the Argos scored 34 points in a win over these same Ti-Cats earlier this month but that had more to do with Hamilton's inability to keep its offense on the field than anything else. Note that the Argos have gained fewer than 70 yards rushing in four straight games and now face a Ti-Cats squad that hasn't yielded more than 90 yards rushing since way back in Week 1. I get the feeling that Hamilton's defense will make life miserable on Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson after getting torched for 382 yards through the air against Montreal last week. Hamilton has still held all seven opponents to 25 or fewer pass completions this season. Toronto needed a whopping 43 pass attempts to get to just 276 passing yards against Calgary last week. Here, we'll note that the Ti-Cats are a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off two losses in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points on average in that situation. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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08-20-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Montreal at 4 pm et on Saturday. I see this as another breakout spot for the Ti-Cats offense after scoring 34 points in a win over Toronto last week. The Alouettes are getting absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing 138, 102, 152 and 118 rushing yards over their last four games. The Ti-Cats are more than capable of taking advantage as they've gained 100+ yards on the ground in three of their last four contests. While the Als are coming off a low-scoring overtime victory in Winnipeg last week, they generally don't shy away from high-scoring shootouts. Note that they've aired it out 31 or more times in three of their last four games while the Ti-Cats have yielded opponents' 37+ pass attempts in two of their last three games. Despite the low-scoring result last week, Montreal has seen four of its last six games total 55+ points. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-22 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks +5.5 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Saskatchewan at 10 pm et on Saturday. This will be a rematch of a Week 1 clash between these two teams that saw Saskatchewan prevail by a 26-16 score. The Elks certainly weren't without their opportunities in that game as they were afforded 36 pass attempts in the loss. That's been a common theme for the Riders as they've struggled mightily to contain opposing passing games, yielding 33, 37, 38 and 33 pass attempts over their last four games with those four opponents completing 21, 26, 30 and 20 passes. Meanwhile, the Riders offense has seemingly gotten worse with each passing week, going from 24 to 21 to 17 points over their last three games. While on paper, the Elks defense should offer a reprieve, I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. It's worth noting that Edmonton is as healthy as any team in the league right now. The Elks are just one game removed from holding Winnipeg to just 274 total yards (including 7-of-16 passing). They'll be out for revenge here and it's worth noting that prior to that first meeting between the teams this season, last year's two matchups were settled by just two and five points. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-11-22 | Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met last week in Montreal, they combined to score 55 points in a 15-point Blue Bombers victory. Winnipeg has now scored 35 points in consecutive games but doesn't necessarily have the look of such an explosive offensive squad under the guidance of QB Zach Collaros. It has been the Bombers ground game that has exploded over the last two weeks but after running for their two highest yardage totals of the season, I look for a step back in that department here. We can't continue to project 150+ rushing yards when the Bombers are actually only running the ball around 20 times per game. Meanwhile, Winnipeg completed just 15-of-26 passes against the Alouettes last week and turned the football over four times. They'll be looking to clean things up here and I see this as more of a 'win and move on' type of contest for the Bombers. Montreal has tried to sling it all over the field over the last two games but it hasn't worked as it completed just 45-of-74 passes for 491 yards in those two contests, scoring a grand total of 37 points. Things obviously won't get any easier as the scene shifts to Winnipeg against the Bombers elite defense. Note that the 'under' is 19-4 with the Bombers playing at home off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 44.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
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08-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +6 | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Winnipeg at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We might have been a week early fading the Blue Bombers last Saturday as they were entrenched in a battle with the Stampeders but ultimately came away with a seven-point victory. Here, I expect them to have their hands full with the Alouettes in Montreal. The Als check in 2-5 on the season although all but one of their losses could have gone either way. Last week they couldn't muster enough offense in a 24-17 loss to the Ti-Cats (we won with the 'under' in that game). Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from putting up 40 points in a road victory in Ottawa. While Montreal checks in as healthy as it has been all season, Winnipeg continues to deal with some nagging injuries to key players. While all indications are that the Blue Bombers key cogs will be 'full go' for this one, there's no denying it's a tough scheduling spot playing on a short week after that hard-fought battle against Calgary last Saturday. Montreal, on the other hand, has been idle since last Thursday. The Als are 3-2 ATS in an underdog role this season and defeated the Bombers by 14 points as a 3.5-point underdog in their home matchup last year. Take Montreal (8*). |
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07-31-22 | Ottawa v. Toronto UNDER 47.5 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Toronto at 5 pm et on Sunday. The RedBlacks remain winless on the season and they'll be hard-pressed to pick up their first victory in Toronto on Sunday. With that being said, rather than lay the points with the Argos here, we'll play the 'under' as I don't expect Ottawa to come close to approaching the 33 points it scored at home against Montreal last week. Ottawa has had an extended week to prepare for this game having not played since a week ago Thursday. That extra time off has allowed some of their defensive injuries to heal up and I certainly anticipate a better showing from that unit than we saw last week against the Alouettes. Note that prior to that contest, the RedBlacks had held four of their first five opponents to 28 points or less this season. Toronto probably doesn't want QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson slinging it all over the field the way he has the last two games against the Roughriders. In fact, the Argos have attempted 37+ passes in three consecutive games. Here, I look for them to make a concerted effort to 'manage' the game, controlling the clock and ultimately grinding down a very beatable RedBlacks squad. Speaking of QB play, Ottawa has never really been able to settle on a quarterback this season and that's lead to a very disjointed offensive attack. The RedBlacks aren't likely to make a lot of headway against an Argos defense that has steadily rounded into form and arguably sits just behind the Blue Bombers as the best defensive squad in the CFL. Since giving up 44 points in a rout against B.C. back in its second game of the season, Toronto has held its last three opponents to 23, 24 and 21 points. The Argos have allowed 100 yards rushing only once in five games and have limited four of five opponents to fewer than 300 passing yards. Take the under (8*). |
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07-30-22 | Winnipeg v. Calgary +1.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Saturday. I expect the Blue Bombers undefeated start to the season to finally come to an end on Saturday in Calgary. This is a quick revenge spot for the Stampeders after they dropped a 26-19 decision in Winnipeg two weeks ago. Calgary couldn't have played much worse in that game - on either side of the football - but still lost by just a touchdown, on the road no less. I certainly anticipate a sharper performance here at home, especially given they've had an extra week to prepare. Since that last meeting, the Blue Bombers rolled to a two-touchdown victory in Edmonton (we won with the 'under' in that game) while the Stamps enjoyed their bye week. Note that Winnipeg WR Greg Ellingson is banged-up and remains questionable to play on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Stamps are a long-term 111-89 ATS when coming off an ATS loss and I look for them to improve on that mark on Saturday. Take Calgary (10*). |
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07-28-22 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Alouettes are coming off four straight 'over' results and have been downright awful defensively in each of their last three games. They do earn a bit of a reprieve here against a struggling Tiger-Cats offense that has been held to 13 points or less in three of six games this season. Last week, Hamilton actually turned in one of its best offensive performances of the season, at least statistically speaking, but could still muster only 12 points in a loss to the Lions. The good news for Hamilton is, its defense has been getting stronger with each passing game. The Ti-Cats two lowest point totals allowed this season have come in their last two contests (they gave up 23 points in a win over Ottawa and 17 in a loss against B.C.). I don't have a lot of faith in either of these offenses finishing many drives with 7's on the board, noting that last year's three meetings totalled just 37, 43 and 35 points. Take the under (8*). |
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07-22-22 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks UNDER 48 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9 pm et on Friday. The Elks are coming off a wild, high-scoring, come-from-behind 32-31 victory over the Alouettes last week. After watching the Als defense get shredded by the lowly RedBlacks last night, it's clear that they have a bottom-tier defensive unit so perhaps we can take Edmonton's offensive outburst last week with a grain of salt. Here, the Elks will be up against arguably the league's best defense as they welcome the Blue Bombers to Commonwealth Stadium. Winnipeg has been locked-in defensively all season, allowing 22 points or less in all six games to date. Last week, they did allow 315 passing yards against the Stampeders but that was on 38 pass attempts, and they still held Calgary to only 19 points (we won with Winnipeg in that game). Edmonton will give QB Taylor Cornelius his second start of the season with Tre Ford still sidelined. Considering his tendency to turn the football over, they probably don't want Cornelius throwing the football 30+ times the way he did against Montreal last week. That would likely be a recipe for disaster against an elite Bombers defense. It's worth noting that Edmonton, despite yielding 31 points in last week's win, is coming off its best defensive effort of the season so far and has had an extra day to prepare for this one. Against Montreal, the Elks allowed 80 rushing yards (the first time they held an opponent under the 100-yard mark this season) and 241 passing yards, limiting the Als to 19 completions on 26 attempts. The Bombers enter this game a little banged-up with their RB depth being tested and standout WR Greg Ellingson listed as questionable and certainly not 100% healthy. As good as the Bombers have been, they've scored more than 26 points just once in six contests this season (we won with Winnipeg in that 43-22 dismantling of the Lions two games back). This looks like a 'win and move on' type of affair for the favored Bombers and I think that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring contest. Take the under (9*). |
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07-21-22 | Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 48 | Top | 40-33 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'under' in the Alouettes stunning loss to the Elks last week but won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks narrow defeat at the hands of the Tiger-Cats. Here, I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as these two struggling East Division squads do battle in Ottawa on Thursday. Montreal allowed an early touchdown five minutes into the game against Edmonton last week but didn't give up another until the final four minutes of the second quarter. From there, the Als built a 31-12 lead before letting their guard down and allowing three unanswered touchdowns from the final four minutes of the third quarter on. Needless to say, Montreal's focus this week will be on turning in a complete 60 minute effort on the defensive side of the football. Note that the Als have actually held their last two opponents to a combined 37-of-61 passing and only gave up 82 rush yards on 23 attempts against Edmonton last week. They've been fortunate to score as many points as they have this season, noting they've gone four games without rushing for more than 87 yards while completing 19 or less passes in four of five contests. Ottawa has scored 17 points or less in three of its first five games this season. Since throwing for 380 and 331 yards in their first two games, the RedBlacks have been held to 162, 268 and 203 passing yards over their last three contests. They've yet to rush for more than 94 yards in a game this season. With the 'over' cashing in each of the Als last three games and Ottawa coming off an 'over' result against Hamilton, we're being offered a generous total here, especially considering you would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a game totalled more than 43 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-16-22 | Ottawa v. Hamilton OVER 44.5 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Hamilton at 5 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the RedBlacks loss to the Riders last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as Ottawa heads to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats. Both of these teams like to sling the ball all over the field. Ottawa checks in having attempted 34, 38, 27 and 33 passes over its last four contests. Hamilton has attempted 35, 51, 42 and 31 passes in its four games. With the RedBlacks once again missing two key defensive cogs in Patrick Levels and Abdul Kanneh and the Ti-Cats also likely to be without Simoni Lawrence, I believe we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-15-22 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -3.5 | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Calgary at 8:30 pm et on Friday. This is the game of the season so far as the undefeated Stampeders travel to Winnipeg to face the 5-0 Blue Bombers. Calgary is coming off a 49-point explosion against the rival Edmonton Elks. It's worth noting that the Stamps didn't reach the end zone until just over four minutes remaining in the first half in that contest and that came on a complete defensive breakdown from the Elks defense as Malik Henry hauled in an 89-yard touchdown pass. From there, the Stamps returned a missed field goal for a touchdown less than two minutes into the second half and the rest was history as they routed the Elks by 43 points. The Blue Bombers aren't likely to be nearly as forgiving on Friday. Winnipeg is coming off a blowout win of its own but it was arguably more impressive as it came against the then-undefeated B.C. Lions, on the road no less. The Bombers are healthy and putting it all together right now as they've looked terrific on both sides of the football. They should have no trouble getting up for this game as they look to remain atop the West Division standings. While Calgary is on an impressive run, keep in mind, its four wins have come against the Alouettes (who just lost to the lowly Elks last night), the Ti-Cats (who are still winless at 0-4) and the aforementioned Elks (they check in 2-4 off last night's win). Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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07-14-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Montreal UNDER 49.5 | 32-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're seeing CFL totals creep up given the higher-scoring nature of the league compared to 2021. I believe this total will prove too high. The Elks are off to a 1-3 start and fresh off an embarrassing 49-6 beatdown at the hands of the rival Stampeders last week, at home no less. They'll turn to backup QB Taylor Cornelius for this game and that doesn't bode particularly well as he didn't play well in limited action last season. I don't expect Edmonton to throw him to the wolves in this one, not with a subpar supporting cast. Instead look for a rather conservative offensive gameplan as the Elks try to possess the football and keep their struggling defense fresh. The Alouettes had last week off to stew over a 41-20 loss to the Roughriders last time out. While they're by no means an elite defensive team, they're better than they showed in that game. Note that in their lone previous home game this season, they limited the same Riders squad to just 13 points. At 1-3 on the season, neither team is looking for style points here, they're simply aiming to get back in the win column and get back in the conversation in their respective division. Take the under (8*). |
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07-09-22 | Winnipeg +3.5 v. BC | Top | 43-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Lions have arguably been the most impressive team in the CFL through the first month of the season, reeling off three straight wins while scoring a whopping 137 points. It's worth noting, however, that they've yet to play a team outside the East Division. There's no question, the West is best when it comes to the CFL - at least so far this season. The Lions should find that out on Saturday as they host 4-0 Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are the two-time defending Grey Cup champions and look every bit the part of a championship contender again this year. Winnipeg is playing on a very short week here after dispatching the Argos by a score of 23-22 on Monday. I don't mind that though as I think it helps the Bombers stay focused on this business-like two-game road trip. The Lions were barely able to escape with a 34-31 win over the still-winless RedBlacks in Ottawa last week. We saw some regression from the B.C. defense in that game and now I think we see it from its offense as it takes on arguably the best defense in the CFL. This matchup was no contest last season as the Bombers swept the two-game series, including a 30-9 victory here in B.C. While the Lions are certainly a better team in 2022 I'm not convinced they've completely closed the gap. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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07-08-22 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan OVER 45 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Saskatchewan at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks wild 34-31 loss to the Lions last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Last year, the RedBlacks and Riders combined to score just 33 points in their lone meeting here in Regina. On paper, Ottawa is immensely improved offensively, even if it hasn't played out that way on the field through three games. The RedBlacks check in 0-3 on the campaign but certainly showed some signs of life in last week's narrow loss. The fact that they put up 31 points despite an off game from QB Jeremiah Masoli (14-of-27 passing) was encouraging. The concern here is that Ottawa is missing a number of key cogs in the defensive backfield, most notably Patrick Levels and Abdul Kanneh. After allowing B.C. QB Nathan Rourke to go off in last week's game (359 yards passing), it will be hard-pressed to bounce back playing on the road with an undermanned secondary. The RedBlacks aren't generating nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks (they had just one sack last week) which opens the door for Riders QB Cody Fajardo to pick them apart on Friday. Saskatchewan just hung 41 points on Montreal in what was a quick revenge spot after getting blown out by the Alouettes the week previous. I don't think we've seen the Riders best offensively but it's been encouraging to see RB Jamal Morrow go off for a pair of 100+ yard rushing games already this season, including 103 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries last week. Note that Ottawa has been among the worst in the CFL at stopping the run, giving up just shy of 4.6 yards per rush this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Toronto +5.5 | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Winnipeg at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers are off to a perfect 3-0 start it's important to keep things in perspective as those three victories came against the RedBlacks and Tiger-Cats - two teams that have combined to go 0-7 to start the season. The Argos are coming off an embarrassing 44-3 road defeat at the hands of the red hot Lions. I'm confident they can make amends for that poor performance back home, where they opened the campaign with a narrow one-point win over the Alouettes. I had the Argos rated as one of the league's best defensive teams entering the season and saw nothing to change my mind in their season-opener. After getting blasted by the Lions there's certainly reason for pause, but I'm willing to give them a 'mulligan' for that poor effort and look for a positive response here. The Blue Bombers offense hasn't looked the same without RB Andrew Harris (who now plays for Toronto but is listed as questionable for this game due to injury). They've scored just 64 points through three games with QB Zach Collaros topping out at 21 pass completions (he's completed just 54-of-80 pass attempts so far this season). WR Nic Demski hauled in six catches for 96 yards last time out against Hamilton but he's now sidelined with an injury. As the two-time defending champs, Winnipeg is going to get every opponents' best punch and I expect nothing different on Monday. Take Toronto (8*). |
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07-02-22 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan UNDER 46 | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. Last week we saw these two teams combine to score 50 points in an Als blowout victory in Montreal. I expect a different story to unfold in Saturday's rematch in Regina. Note that the Als set the tone for that relatively high-scoring affair by returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The only offensive touchdown scored prior to garbage time inside the final two minutes of the fourth quarter came early in the second quarter on a Riders defensive breakdown (70-yard touchdown pass by Montreal). I expect a sharper performance from the Saskatchewan defense here at home. On the flip side, the Riders will be without WR Shaq Evans. Montreal has held up reasonably well defensively so far this season, yielding just 63 points through three games, despite playing two of its three contests on the road. While the Als will have QB Vernon Adams Jr. back in the fold for this one, I'm actually not certain that helps their offense as Trevor Harris filled in admirably over the last two games. Take the under (8*). |
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06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 47.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Ottawa has seen each of its first two games stay 'under' the total this season as it works a number of new pieces into the fold following many offseason moves. That's not to mention the fact that the RedBlacks faced the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers and their elite defense in each of the first two contests. I do expect Ottawa to fare better offensively in this one as they've had an extra week of practice time following the bye week. B.C. has lit up its first two opponents for 103 points, cruising to a perfect 2-0 start. While Ottawa's defense should be improved this season, or appears so on paper, the RedBlacks allowed Winnipeg to complete north of 70% of its passes through the first two games, not to mention the fact that it allowed 115 rush yards in its most recent game. It's also notable that Ottawa will likely be missing CB Abdul Kanneh for this contest. The Lions will be missing WR Bryan Burnham but I expect them to stay aggressive with QB Nathan Rourke rounding into form in the early going this season. Despite two lopsided affairs, the Lions still attempted a whopping 65 passes in their first two contests. Take the over (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-26 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers have not surprisingly opened the season with consecutive low-scoring games against the Ottawa RedBlacks. I expect a different story to unfold this week, however, as they return home to host the winless Tiger-Cats. Hamilton jumped ahead 17-0 in the first quarter against Calgary in its home-opener last Saturday. Then we saw perhaps some complacency set in as the Ti-Cats allowed the Stampeders to get right back in the game and ultimately fell by a 33-30 score in overtime in the wildest game of the season to date. There were concerns entering the new season that the Ti-Cats defense might struggle with the new field layout and rule changes and that's been precisely the case through two games as they've allowed 30+ points against both Saskatchewan and Calgary. Things won't get any easier here as they face the two-time defending Grey Cup champion Blue Bombers on the road. Winnipeg hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard but it hasn't needed to. Game flow has dictated a pair of relatively low-scoring results against Ottawa - an opponent that's still finding its way with a new starting quarterback in former Ti-Cat Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton looks a little more settled on offense with QB Dane Evans completing 60-of-86 passes for just shy of 800 yards through two games. We've already seen the Bombers show some vulnerability defending the pass, allowing Masoli and the RedBlacks to rack up 711 passing yards over the last two games against them. These two teams met twice last season and both games featured higher closing totals than we're dealing with this week. Note that the most recent matchup produced 58 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Calgary v. Hamilton UNDER 45.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Hamilton at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in much different results last week as the Stampeders prevailed in a high-scoring affair against the Alouettes while the Tiger-Cats ended up losing by 17 points in what was a very low-scoring game until the final few minutes when the Riders put two touchdowns on the board. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks. The Stampeders are still easing QB Bo Levi Mitchell back from injury and now he's dealing with a nagging foot ailment but will play on Saturday. Last week against what I would consider a middle-of-the-pack Als defense, Mitchell completed just 21-of-34 passes for 199 yards a touchdown and an interception. I'm not convinced the Stamps will be eager to throw him to the wolves against a terrific Ti-Cats defense on the road on Saturday. Hamilton will need to hang its hat on its defense - at least until it gets things figured out on offense. Dane Evans is supposed to take over the reins from Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback this season but he didn't look great last week, with Matt Shiltz entering the game for extended action. The Ti-Cats ground attack boasts some capable backs but no true workhorse or standout capable of churning out much-needed yardage in the three-down Canadian game. While I wasn't particularly high on the Stamps defense entering the season, I did like the way they shut down the Als in the second half last week, allowing just a single field goal. As I alluded to earlier, Hamilton didn't give up a touchdown until the final minutes of last week's 30-13 loss in Saskatchewan and we know how tough the Ti-Cats 'D' can be at Tim Hortons Field. As a final note, the Ti-Cats will be missing two key cogs on their offensive line due to injury this week, further hampering their offense. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Montreal v. Toronto UNDER 50 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Argos will make their season debut as they host the East Division rival Alouettes on Thursday. We won with Montreal plus the points in its three-point loss in Calgary last week. In that game, the Als defense actually held up better than expected as far as I'm concerned. While it did get off to a tough start, allowing two touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes and change, it then held the Stampeders out of the end zone until two minutes into the fourth quarter. I like the fact that it catches a new-look Toronto offense that has yet to see regular season game action on Thursday. The Argos added RB Andrew Harris in the offseason and I'm confident he'll be the focal point of their offense early in the campaign. I'm just not completely sold on QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson being a first-rate starting QB in the CFL. On the flip side, the jury is still out as to whether Als QB Vernon Adams Jr. belongs in that category as well. Here, Montreal will be without standout RB William Stanback. He's the type of do-it-all CFL back that leaves a hole in the offense when he's sidelined. I do think the Als will be hesitant to turn Adams loose coming off a loss here in Week 2 against what should be one of the better defenses in the league in Toronto. Take the under (8*). |
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06-10-22 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The CFL made a number of offseason rule changes in an effort to increase scoring after it was down across the league, particularly in the early stages of last season. Last night, we saw the season-opener between the Alouettes and Stampeders total 57 points. With that being said, that result had more to do with the early execution of the two offenses than it did any rule changes. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as the Redblacks challenge the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers in Winnipeg on Friday. Ottawa overhauled its roster in the offseason as wholesale changes were necessary following a dismal 2021 campaign - particularly on the offensive side of the football. In comes former Tiger-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli to run the offense, with plenty of other weapons added to the roster as well. One of those weapons will serve as the backfield leader in veteran RB William Powell. Unfortunately, he's injured and has been ruled out for Friday's game. I do think it will take some time for Masoli to mesh with his new receiving corps. This game serves as a 'baptism by fire' against perhaps the league's most dominant defense in Winnipeg. I don't expect the Redblacks to put too much on Masoli's plate here, even if they'd love to open things up right out of the gate. They can afford to stay somewhat conservative offensively because their defense has the chance to be terrific, with a number of new recruits on board. Keep in mind, the Redblacks defense was solid at times last season, it was simply on the field too much and injuries ultimately took their toll. I love the additions they made in the offseason with Patrick Levels and Money Hunter among those coming over from the Als in particular. Speaking of defense, the Blue Bombers are once again loaded in that department. That's certainly nothing new after they gave up a grand total of only 15 touchdowns all of last season. While the offense adds standout WR Greg Ellingson, it loses RB Andrew Harris. It remains to be seen whether RB Brady Oliveira can pick up the slack following Harris' departure - it will likely be more of a running back by committee situation in the early going. While the Bombers are favored heavily in this game, I do expect a hard-fought affair and believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-22 | Montreal +3.5 v. Calgary | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Calgary at 9 pm et on Thursday. While the Alouettes reached the East semis against Hamilton last year, optimism isn't particularly high heading into the 2022 campaign, with more of the talk surrounding who isn't back rather than who is. Regardless, I like their opening week matchup as they head west to face a Calgary squad that many seem to be high on, but I'm not so easily convinced. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is one of the league's biggest stars but at 32 years old and coming off another injury-plagued season, I question whether he's all the way back. We saw him appear in just one preseason game, completing 3-of-10 passes for 37 yards. I realize preseason results can be taken with a grain of salt but that performance certainly wasn't all that encouraging. The Stamps offense will go as far as RB Kadeem Carey can take them - I'm just not sure there's enough there at the skill positions to provide a great deal of support. The addition of LB Cameron Judge from Toronto is intriguing but I would rate the Stamps defense as average at best, and then enter Week 1 missing a number of key cogs in the secondary due to various injuries, including newly-acquired DB Elie Bouka. It's also worth noting that Calgary is expected to be without punter Cody Grace for this game as well as he deals with a groin injury. Specials teams are an often overlooked but particularly important part of the game when handicapping the CFL and its unique rules. I'm high on the Als offense once again this year with RB William Stanback and WRs Eugene Lewis and Jake Weineke. The offense has the potential to be quite versatile once again with Trevor Harris capable of stepping in for Vernon Adams Jr. under centre should the latter falter. Take Montreal (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton UNDER 44.5 | 33-25 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Hamilton at 6 pm et on Sunday. We opened our CFL campaign by cashing the 'under' in this same matchup way back in August so it's only fitting that we close out the season with precisely the same play in Sunday's Grey Cup. The Tiger-Cats offense has been consistent but also somewhat limited all season. Even in last Sunday's win over the Argos, the Ti-Cats completed a ridiculous 20-of-22 passes yet still scored 'only' 27 points in a come-from-behind victory. Three games back we saw Hamilton complete a season-high 27 passes yet still only scored 24 points. You get the idea. Here, the Ti-Cats will be up against one of the best CFL defenses we've seen in years in the Blue Bombers. Winnipeg has allowed fewer than 20 points in 11 of 15 games this season. They weren't necessarily at their best last Sunday against a Riders squad that had a real chip on its shoulder, yet still gave up just 17 points in a victory. Like the Ti-Cats, the Bombers have a rather limited offense. They've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. You would have to go back four games to find the last time they scored more than 21 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled only 25 points. While I'm not about to predict that sort of slugfest here, I do think this total will ultimately prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 4 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring overtime game between Saskatchewan and Calgary last week as the Riders advanced to the West Final with a 33-30 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold here as the defensive-minded Blue Bombers look to punch their ticket to a second straight Grey Cup. Riders road games have finished with totals of 42, 55, 40, 37, 33, 36 and 27 points this season. The lone outlier came in a contest against a bad Lions defense. In two previous meetings with the Bombers, the Riders only managed to score a grand total of 17 points. It's not surprising that we've seen the 'under' go 9-4-1 in the Bombers 14 games this season. After all, they completed fewer than 20 passes in all but three of those games while holding each of their final six opponents to 19 pass completions or less. RB Andrew Harris is still banged-up - just as he has been all season - but I would certainly expect him to be a workhorse again in this one, provided he's healthy enough to play. The Riders defense has been more of a 'bend but don't break' unit compared to the Blue Bombers shut-down defense. They do catch the Bombers offense having not played its starters in nearly a month (they had the benefit of rest after locking up the West Division title early). You would have to go back to September 2018 - nine meetings ago - to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 45 points. I'll stick with the trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Ottawa +14 v. Montreal | Top | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We've cashed a number of tickets backing the RedBlacks this season, in spite of their awful overall record. This is another favorable spot to back Ottawa as it wraps up its season by making the short trip to Montreal to face the Alouettes. Note that while the RedBlacks haven't won a game since September 28th, during their current six-game slide they've lost only twice by more than 13 points. Here, they face an Als squad that is playoff-bound and not likely to move out of the third spot in the East Division with Hamilton hosting a Saskatchewan team that has nothing to play for locked into the second spot in the West Division on Saturday. Got all that? Montreal has some injury concerns to deal with here as well. Top wide receiver Eugene Lewis has been limited at practice all week so it remains to be seen how many snaps he'll see on Friday. Meanwhile, Ottawa has actually gotten healthier down the stretch, recently welcoming back one of its best defensive players in Praise Martin-Oguike. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto OVER 44 | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night in Toronto. Hamilton's scores have quietly been creeping up as it has seen back-to-back and three of its last four games overall go 'over' the total. The Ti-Cats should be able to find plenty of offensive success in this one, especially when you consider the Argos will be without their defensive anchor in Charleston Hughes. The Argos defense has held up alright in the last two games but that was against two severely limited offenses in B.C. and Ottawa. Here, Toronto will be taking a step up in class against a Hamilton offense that has been led by a passing game that has completed 86 of its last 114 passes (75%) for right around 1,300 yards over the last four games alone. On the flip side, we have seen the Argos offense exceed expectations somewhat (at least my expectations) with QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson taking over the reins following Nick Arbuckle's departure. The Argos offense will get some help with the return of underrated RB D.J. Foster on Friday as well. Note that Toronto has put up at least 23 points in five of its last six games overall and has attempted 38 or more passes in each of its last four games. With the last two meetings in this series staying under the 50-point mark, there's reason to believe we'll see some positive regression to the mean here, noting that we haven't seen three straight matchups between these rivals stay under 50 since back in 2017. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Toronto v. Ottawa +10.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up for the RedBlacks who understandably find themselves as double-digit underdogs at home against the Argos on Saturday. When these two teams last met on October 6th in Toronto the Argos rolled to a 35-16 victory. Keep in mind, 21 of Toronto's points came on special teams or defensive touchdowns. Ottawa actually led that contest at halftime. The RedBlacks did a pretty good job of keeping the Argos offense in check in that game and I'm confident they can do so again here. Simply put, I haven't been high on the Argos offense since they dealt QB Nick Arbuckle to move forward with McLeod Bethel-Thompson. Note that Bethel-Thompson has thrown for just six touchdowns compared to seven interceptions this season. Now the Argos are dealing with some key injuries as well, including one to RB D.J. Foster. We'll make this play on the assumption that he's good to go but it's worth noting nonetheless. The RedBlacks are starting to get healthier. While QB Caleb Evans has done as much as he can running the offense, getting back Dominique Davis wouldn't hurt and he's got some limited work in at practice this week and is eligible to come off the injured list for Saturday's game. WR and KR DeVonte Dedmon is expected to return after a full week of practice as well. Defensively, DL and key pass rusher Praise Martin-Oguike has returned to practice this week as well. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week but if he can that's an added bonus as well. Note that there are a couple of trends supporting Ottawa here as well. CFL home teams that have lost five or six of their last seven games ATS, and have a losing record are on a long-term 82-45 ATS run. Better still, home teams off 5+ consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 15 are on a long-term 33-10 ATS run. Too many points here as the RedBlacks show some pride and hand Toronto its third straight ATS loss. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. While I'm not necessarily anticipating a shootout in this game, I do feel the total has been set far too low, largely due to the inept nature of the RedBlacks offense in recent weeks. There is reason for some optimism when it comes to the Ottawa offense entering this game, however. Calgary is coming off four straight division games, including three hard-fought battles against the Roughriders. The Stamps defense has certainly held up well but I do feel that this is a spot where we could see them suffer a letdown of sorts, noting that they've allowed at least 22 points in all three previous matchups against East Division opponents this season. Yes, Ottawa has been dreadful on offense in recent weeks but it did recently add former Pittsburgh Steelers QB Duck Hodges and he should push current starting QB Caleb Evans, who has shown some positive flashes, as we wind down the stretch this season. It's the defensive side of the football where I'm most concerned for the RedBlacks as they've been ravaged by injuries to a unit that wasn't all that great to begin with. They've been absolutely lit up in recent weeks, 'letting go of the rope' so to speak as they near the end of a trying season. Over the last two games, they've allowed 59 points while giving up 247 rushing yards and over 600 passing yards. The fact that they still allowed 27 points despite benefiting from three turnovers against Montreal two weeks ago was telling. While Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been turnover-prone, here he'll benefit from facing a RedBlacks secondary that is a shell of its former self due in large part to a cluster of injuries. Interestingly, Calgary has had a better scoring offense on the road than at home, averaging 25.2 points per game in enemy territory compared to its 22.1 ppg overall scoring average. As for Ottawa, it has been marginally better at putting points on the board at home, averaging 19.6 points per game compared to its 15.6 ppg season scoring average. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Montreal -5.5 v. Ottawa | 27-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the RedBlacks in this same matchup on Monday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Alouettes in Saturday's rematch in Ottawa. Montreal jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead less than three minutes into Monday's contest. I think at that point the Als thought the game was going to be a cake-walk. It wasn't. Ottawa battled but ultimately fell short once again, dropping to 2-7 on the season. Note that the RedBlacks didn't score a single touchdown in that loss. In fact, you would have to go back nine quarters to find the last time Ottawa registered an offensive touchdown. Defense is where I expect the RedBlacks to struggle in this one, noting that they'll be without a pair of key defenders due to injuries in Avery Williams and Praise Martin-Oguike. Williams has been one of the team's top tacklers all season while Martin-Oguike has led their limited pass rush. For Montreal, all indications are that QB Vernon Adams Jr. will be good to go after leaving Monday's game with a shoulder injury. The Als will also welcome back RB William Stanback after he missed Monday's contest. Take Montreal (10*). |
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10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton UNDER 44 | 24-23 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Toronto and Hamilton at 4 pm et on Monday. Low-scoring games have been commonplace in the CFL this season and I expect a similar story to unfold - at least early on - in Monday's rivalry showdown between the Argos and Tiger-Cats. I'll play the 'under' in the first half only as the Argos have listed previously-injured QB Nick Arbuckle as the backup to McLeod Bethel-Thompson in this game and should Bethel-Thompson struggle early on I wouldn't be surprised to see the more dynamic Arbuckle take over. Job number one for the Ti-Cats in this one will be taking care of the football on offense. The Argos are coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances but that's in direct correlation with the fact that they secured four turnovers in each of those games. In fact, Toronto ran two interceptions back for touchdowns in last Wednesday's 35-16 rout of the RedBlacks. It's worth noting that Toronto is averaging a woeful 16.2 points per game on the road this season, including just 4.7 points per game in the first half. While the Ti-Cats average north of 25 points per game here at Tim Hortons Field, they've been slow starters, averaging only 7.3 points per contest in the first half. Take the first half under (8*). |
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10-11-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Montreal | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. Caleb Evans had his 'welcome to the CFL' moment in last Wednesday's 35-16 rout at the hands of the Argos. In fact he had two. Evans threw a pair of costly pick-sixes that turned that game from a competitive affair into a blowout. I'm still high on Evans and expect him to bounce back and take better care of the football in Monday's Canadian Thanksgiving showdown in Montreal. The RedBlacks fall into an excellent situation here as underdogs off a division loss have gone 67-32 when facing an opponent coming off an outright underdog win, as is the case with Montreal following its overtime victory in Hamilton last week. The Als crushed the RedBlacks the last time these two teams met back on September 3rd. Montreal gained 183 yards on the ground in that game but will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance without RB William Stanback on Monday (he's been ruled out due to injured ribs). QB Vernon Adams is playing through a nagging foot injury as well. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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10-09-21 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan OVER 44.5 | 22-19 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last week as the Stamps prevailed by a 23-17 score. Now we're dealing with a lower posted total and I believe it will prove too low on Saturday night. Note that the Stamps threw the football only 26 times for 184 yards in last week's victory. That had everything to do with game script as they jumped ahead by two touchdowns early and cruised the rest of the way. With the scene shifting to Regina on Saturday I'm certainly anticipating a stronger performance from the Riders offense. They've attempted at least 30 passes in all seven games this season and had scored 30+ points in consecutive games prior to last week's dismal effort. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-7 the last 30 times the Riders have played at home coming off a loss by seven points or less against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 55.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Elks got blasted against the RedBlacks of all teams last week but they'll aim to get back on track here with QB Trevor Harris returning to the field. The argument could be made that Edmonton essentially 'punted' that midweek game in Ottawa, knowing Harris would be back on the field for this division game against the Blue Bombers. Regardless, I do expect the Elks to show up with a much stronger effort here. Having Harris back should allow the offense to get back in rhythm and give the defense a break by staying on the field for extended stretches. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Elks bust out on the scoreboard against arguably the league's best defense in Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are coming off three straight 30+ point performances but I wouldn't count on that continuing tonight. This is a team that's built on the strength of its defense. Prior to its most recent three-game stretch it had been held to 23 points or less in its first four games this season. I still see QB Zach Collaros as more of a 'game manager' than anything else at this stage of his career. He threw the football 34 times in last week's blowout win over the Lions but I'm not sure we'll see such an aggressive offensive gameplan against a tougher defensive opponent here. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Elks have allowed 34+ points in consecutive games, with that situation producing an average total of just 43.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-4 the last 22 times the Bombers have come off three or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot leading to a total of just 44.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Montreal v. Hamilton OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Hamilton at 4 pm et on Saturday. We've been playing mostly 'unders' when it comes to CFL totals lately, and rightfully so as the league has certainly taken a low-scoring turn this season. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over', however, as the desperate Als roll into Hamilton on the heels of consecutive losses. Montreal showed some positive signs in last week's 30-27 loss to the Argos. QB Vernon Adams Jr. completed 30-of-39 passes for nearly 400 yards through the air while RB William Stanback went off for 133 yards on the ground. I get the feeling we may see somewhat of a letdown from the Ti-Cats vaunted defense here after they held up so well, shouldering much of the load with QBs Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Masoli is back, along with WRs Bralon Addison and Brandon Banks and I can't help but feel we'll see the Hamilton defense breathe a sigh of relief and that perhaps opens the door for the Als offense in this spot. On the flip side, the Als defense hasn't been particularly good this season, especially against the pass. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli probably could have returned for the team's most recent game as he had been practicing in the days leading up to this one. Now he's had ample time to get ready for the Als with the Ti-Cats having not played in a week-and-a-half. The most recent matchup between these two teams fizzled in the second half. In what I expect to be a more competitive affair on Saturday, I look for this one to find its way 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa OVER 44.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the RedBlacks 24-7 loss in awful weather conditions last week here in Ottawa. Conditions are expected to be a whole lot better tonight, and I believe this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. The Elks will go with former Oklahoma State standout QB Taylor Cornelius for a second straight game with Trevor Harris still recovering from injury. Edmonton's offensive playbook didn't look a whole lot different with Cornelius under center last time out as he threw for 243 yards on 33 pass attemps while also adding 23 yards on the ground on a couple of rush attempts. That was against an elite Blue Bombers defense. Here, he'll be facing a RedBlacks defense that held up well in the first matchup between these two teams this season but that was back in Week 1. They've fallen apart since then. I like the fact that Cornelius didn't hesitate to throw the football down the field. The Elks top three receivers in that game against Winnipeg all had receptions of at least 20 yards. Ottawa will be going with a former college standout at quarterback for this one as well as Caleb Evans gets his first career CFL start. The fact is, he can't do much worse than Matt Nichols and Dominique Davis. Note that Evans owns the fifth-most total yards in Sun Belt Conference history. He ranks 11th in the Sun Belt in career touchdown passes. I believe his dual-threat capability makes him a good fit in the CFL. Despite game script going the other way with two losses in their last three games, the Elks check in having allowed at least 250 passing yards in three straight games. Believe it or not, the RedBlacks still aren't out of the playoff picture, sitting a game or less back of three of the nine teams in the league. There's little reason for them to hold anything back, especially after last week's embarrassing performance in front of the home faithful. Take the over. |
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09-22-21 | Hamilton v. Ottawa UNDER 44.5 | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Hamilton is in a tough spot here, playing its second game in six nights and doing so without its best offensive players in QBs Jeremiah Masoli and Dane Evans and WRs Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison. It would be well-suited to effectively shorten this game and put QB David Watford in a 'game manager' role once again, just as it did last Friday against Calgary, and let its defense do much of the heavy-lifting. Ottawa is coming off back-to-back high-scoring affairs, allowing a whopping 96 points in losses to the Alouettes and Lions. The good news is, the RedBlacks are coming off their bye week so certainly have a rest advantage in this spot. I do think they're a better defensive team than they've shown over their last couple of games, noting that they had allowed a grand total of just 59 points over their first three contests this season. Ottawa QB Dominique Davis has thrown 84 passes over the last two games and while he's been able to march the offense up and down the field, he's also turned the football over three times. With the RedBlacks facing a much tougher defensive test in the Ti-Cats this week than they did against the Als and Lions over the last two games, I would anticipate them scaling back their aerial attack in an effort to avoid those costly turnovers, noting that Hamilton has five interceptions in its last four contests. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 44 | 37-22 | Win | 100 | 31 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9:45 pm et on Saturday. We're once again dealing with a low posted total due to a CFL quarterback injury as Elks QB Trevor Harris will be sidelined. He entered the week leading the CFL in passing yardage so it's obviously a blow. However, if you've watched the Elks play this season and if you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm not all that high on Harris - not in this offense at least. He's been hesitant to push the football down the field at times and I believe it's cost the Elks some points. Enter rookie Taylor Cornelius. After spending time in the XFL in 2020 he'll get a shot north of the border and I expect him to play aggressively. Cornelius has some familiarity with the Elks offense as head coach Jamie Elizondo was the offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Vipers, Cornelius' team in the XFL last year. Cornelius is also a proven performer from his days at Oklahoma State. In fact, he sits tied for the Cowboys all-time record for all-purpose touchdowns in a single season. Who is he tied with? A guy named Barry Sanders. Anyway, I don't expect Cornelius to hold anything back in his CFL starting debut on Saturday. On the flip side, the Blue Bombers have been involved in a number of low-scoring games lately but I look for them to open things up a little bit on offense as well as they match up well against a middle-of-the-pack Elks defense. It should be all systems go with WRs Darvin Adams and Nic Demski getting in a full week of practice for a change, apparently over their nagging injuries. The Bombers haven't had to score a lot of points to secure their last couple of victories but here I envision them getting involved in more of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-21 | Calgary v. Hamilton OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Hamilton at 7 pm et on Friday. The Ti-Cats are obviously in a tough spot here as they go with third-string QB David Watford with both Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli injured. They're also missing their top three wide receivers and likely their starting running back as well. It's going to be awfully tough to gameplan offensively for this one but with so many unknowns, I prefer to play the 'over' with the Stamps offense capable of doing much of the heavy lifting. Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell returned from a broken fibula to guide his team to a much-needed 32-16 win over the Elks last week. He wasn't quite as sharp as we're accustomed to seeing but with a game under his belt and another full week of practice I look for a big performance from Mitchell here. While the Stamps defense recorded seven sacks against statue-esque Elks QB Trevor Harris in last week's victory, they'll likely find it a little more difficult getting to Ti-Cats QB Watford, who has dual-threat capabilities. I expect the Ti-Cats to design plenty of plays that allow Watford to move around in the pocket and give his receivers time to get open down the field. With Hamilton likely to be playing in catch-up mode for much of this game, look for some soft coverage from the Stamps beatable secondary. It's worth noting that despite all of its injuries, Hamilton is still currently listed as a short favorite in this game. I believe the potential is there for the Ti-Cats to keep this one competitive and for that to happen, they're going to need to put some points on the board. We've seen a bit of a shift to higher-scoring results after 'unders' ruled the first month of the CFL season. Expect more of the same on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Calgary +1.5 v. Edmonton Elks | 32-16 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Edmonton at 7 pm et on Saturday. Barring any late setbacks, the Stampeders will welcome back QB Bo Levi Mitchell for Saturday's rematch with the Elks. I don't believe the Stamps would rush Mitchell back if he wasn't ready, noting that backup Jake Maier has performed admirably in his absence, throwing for over 300 yards in three straight games. Here, Calgary will be looking for quick revenge after suffering what ended as a lopsided result at home against the Elks on Monday. At 1-4 and given this is a shorter than usual season due to Covid, the Stamps need to turn things around in a hurry and I'm confident they will. Edmonton QB Trevor Harris has put up some terrific numbers over the last couple of games but I haven't been overly impressed by his play. Too many short passes only reaching the line of scrimmage, not really taking advantage of a terrific wide receiving corps. We did see the Elks open things up a bit on offense in the latter stages of Monday's contest but I'm not convinced we'll see a similar gameplan right out of the gate here. Note that the Stamps are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 3.4 points on average in that situation. Take Calgary (8*). |
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09-11-21 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 43.5 | 9-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 4 pm et on Saturday. We saw a very low-scoring game between these two teams just six days ago as Winnipeg rolled to a 23-8 win on the road. I don't expect much to change in the rematch, even with the Riders missing a couple of key cogs in the secondary. Winnipeg doesn't necessarily have the offense to take full advantage of Saskatchewan's key absences (both Ed Gainey and Louchez Purifoy will miss this game). QB Zach Collaros has been more of a game manager this season, noting that Winnipeg has scored 23 points or less in all five games to date. Also note that the Bombers have a number of offensive players listed on their injury report. Nic Demski, Darvin Adams and Andrew Harris are among those listed as questionable although I would anticipate all three playing in this game. Whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate, however. Saskatchewan's offense has stalled somewhat since a huge first half was back in its season-opener against B.C. The Riders will need to take some of the pressure off of QB Cody Fajardo in this one as he was under duress all afternoon long against the Bombers vaunted pass rush last Sunday. I expect plenty of early down runs and also quick, short passes in this one in an effort to keep the Bombers defense on the field and perhaps slow that dominant pass rush. We saw a low-scoring result in the quick turnaround rematch between the Ti-Cats and Argos last night and I expect more of the same in this rematch on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). |
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09-06-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary OVER 42.5 | Top | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Calgary at 4:30 pm et on Monday. The fact that the Stampeders were involved in a low-scoring 18-16 setback against the Blue Bombers last week works out well for our purposes here as we're once again being afforded a low total to work with. The Elks of course had last week's game postponed as they had a number of players in Covid protocols. When we last saw Edmonton, it did show signs of life offensively with QB Trevor Harris completing 26-of-31 passes in a victory in B.C. The Elks have too much talent on offense to be held down for long and I expect them to come out with an aggressive offensive gameplan here in the Labor Day Classic in Calgary. The Stamps were written off by most with the injury to star QB Bo Levi Mitchell but Jake Maier has stepped in and performed admirably. Last week against arguably the league's best defense, on the road no less, Maier completed 30-of-39 passes for 307 yards. He hasn't shied away from taking chances down the field - it certainly helps that he has an excellent receiving corps to work with. The Elks defense hasn't really been tested all that much this season with their first three games coming against Ottawa, Montreal and B.C. - three teams that have been very inconsistent on offense so far this season. We don't need a shootout to cash this ticket but that type of contest is certainly well within the realm of possibility. Take the over (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan -190 | 23-8 | Loss | -190 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Saskatchewan moneyline over Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. I'm not interested in laying the points here. Instead, I'll keep it simple and back the Riders straight-up to earn their fourth straight victory to open the season. The Blue Bombers bounced back from an ugly loss in Toronto by outlasting Calgary in an ugly victory, 18-16 last weekend. It's been a war of attrition for Winnipeg in the early going this season as it has dealt with a number of key injuries. While the bulk of the Blue Bombers injured players have battled through and managed to suit up, all of that missed or limited practice time has to be adding up at this point. RB Andrew Harris, WRs Nic Demski and Darvin Adams and DLs Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat all were either limited or missed practice at some point this week. While I would guess that all of them will suit up for Sunday's contest, whether they're completely healthy is up for debate. The Riders have no such injury issues to worry about. They've quietly reeled off three straight wins to open the season and come off their bye week. I like Saskatchewan's edge at the quarterback position with dual-threat Cody Fajardo in midseason form already. Bombers QB Zach Collaros has certainly lost a step over the years and is no longer much of a threat to run the football. We'll see a rematch of this contest next week in Winnipeg. Look for the Riders to hold serve at home on Sunday. Take Saskatchewan moneyline (8*). |
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09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 51-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. With both teams coming off dismal offensive performances last week I think most bettors will be looking to back the 'under' in this matchup of 1-2 teams on Friday night. I'll go the other way as I believe we're being afforded a very reasonable total in a game where we can expect to see some progression from both offenses. The Alouettes actually have one of the more aggressive downfield passing games in the league led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. They ran into a tough matchup last week with the Ti-Cats heading into Montreal sporting an 0-2 record. Hamilton is of course an elite team and played with a real edge, particularly on the defensive side of the football. While Ottawa has posted some excellent numbers defensively in the early going this season, we're not talking about an elite defense in my opinion. It's had more to do with game flow as a result of its own punchless offense as far as I'm concerned. Here, I do think we'll see the RedBlacks get a spark offensively with head coach Paul LaPolice hinting at backup QB Dominique Davis possibly being worked into the gameplan with Matt Nichols struggling. With the Ottawa ground game stalled and starter Timothy Flanders battling an injury we should see the RedBlacks air it out more often than usual in this one. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory off consecutive losses and with that in mind, I look for both offenses to take a few more chances than they otherwise would, leading to a higher-scoring game than most are anticipating. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met they combined to score a whopping 74 points back in 2019. Take the over (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 44 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Sunday. I think we can still 'buy low' when it comes to the Stampeders offense as most are still setting low expectations in the absence of star QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Backup Jake Maier stepped in and did an admirable job in a 28-22 win over the Alouettes last week. In general, the Stamps offense looked as good as it has all season, with RB Ka'Deem Carey rushing for two touchdowns and two wide receivers posting 100+ yard receiving days. While the Blue Bombers vaunted defensive front will pose a serious challenge, the Stamps offensive line has been exceeding expectations, ranking second in the league in fewest sacks allowed, and I expect it to hold up well here also. Note that the Bombers two top pass rushers, Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat continue to deal with nagging injuries. Both should play but they're still not at 100%. Meanwhile, the Bombers offense will get a major boost with the return of RB Andrew Harris. With their ground game struggling, his return should really open things up for QB Zach Collaros and the offense. The Stamps defense has faced a favorable early season schedule but has allowed six offensive touchdowns in three games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-27-21 | Hamilton v. Montreal OVER 46.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The CFL is off to a low-scoring start this season but now that we're into Week 4, I think we'll begin to see the offenses start to round into form. If this game were played a little later in the season I'm certain we'd be dealing with a total in the 50's. The Ti-Cats are expected to give Dane Evans the start at quarterback with Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Remember, Evans took over the starting job for Masoli back in 2019 and actually started for them in the Grey Cup title game. He didn't look particularly sharp in relief of Masoli against the Riders two weeks ago but has had a couple of weeks of practice since then thanks to the bye week and I expect him to take advantage of the Als weakness, which happens to be their secondary. Hamilton has been banging its head against the wall trying to run the football so far this season so I think we'll see them take to the air more often in this one. On the flip side, the Als boast one of the most aggressive offenses in the CFL. We can expect to see QB Vernon Adams Jr. bomb away in this one and he should have ample time to operate in the pocket with the Ti-Cats undermanned on the defensive line. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto OVER 43.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams in Winnipeg last week - that's been the norm in CFL action so far this season, largely due to the absence of a preseason. Here, with both teams having two games under their belts, I look for them to perform better offensively in what I believe will be a high-scoring contest in Toronto. The Argos are expected to turn to QB Nick Arbuckle under center. He was injured to start the season. I think the plan always was for him to take over the reins from McLeod Bethel-Thompson. After showing some life in Week 1, we saw very little from the Toronto offense last week. That obviously had a lot to do with the elite nature of the Blue Bombers defense but also spoke to Bethel-Thompson's ineffectiveness. RB John White could miss this game due to a hip injury but if he does, that should only force Toronto to draw up more passing plays for Arbuckle, which might not be a bad thing as White ended up banging his head against the wall all night against a stout Bombers defensive front last week. Winnipeg is expected to get some help offensively with the possible return of RB Andrew Harris and WR Darvin Adams. Regardless whether one or both of those star players return, we can expect further progression from the Bombers offense after QB Zach Collaros turned in his strongest performance of the season against the Argos last week. Toronto does have an improved defense but both Charleston Hughes and Henoc Muamba have missed practice time this week and are questionable to play on Saturday. I think it's only a matter of time before we see a breakout performance from the Winnipeg offense, and this could very well be the spot as it makes the necessary adjustments after seeing the Argos new-look defense for the first time last Friday. With this being the lowest total on the Week 2 board, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this 'over' ticket. I have the Bombers approaching 30 points in this one while the Argos should be able to do enough to help the final score up and 'over' the very reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-21 | Montreal v. Calgary UNDER 45.5 | 22-28 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Calgary at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Als season-opening rout of the Elks in Edmonton last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they look to complete the Alberta sweep in Calgary. Montreal looked terrific on both sides of the football in last Saturday's dominant win. Here, they catch a break as the Stamps will be without QB Bo Levi Mitchell after he suffered a broken fibula back in Week 1 (before inexplicably trying to play through it last week). That leaves the Stamps offense limited here with little experience behind Mitchell. 24-year old Jake Maier out of Cal-Davis is expected to get the start. While he's saying all the right things, it remains to be seen how effective he can be, or how much of the gameplan the Stamps will give him to work with in his first start. Against a much-improved Als pass rush, I don't expect the Stamps to throw Maier completely into the fire. Look for them to run a fairly conservative offense in this one with plenty of runs and short passes. The Als secondary could still turn out to be their weakness but I'm not sure we'll see that unit get exposed this week. Despite the 0-2 start, Calgary's defense has held up exceptionally well through the first two games. I would certainly expect to see that unit rise to the occasion knowing the offense isn't at full strength for this one. The Stamps gave up just one touchdown against the Lions last week with that coming five minutes into the second quarter. From there, they limited B.C. to just a 29-yard fourth quarter field goal. We're seeing lower CFL totals after seven of the first eight games this season stayed 'under' the total. That's likely been a product of the team's seeing no preseason action this year. With the Als playing just their second regular season game, look for another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (9*). |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are off to a very disappointing 0-2 start, especially considering their first two games were played at home, against seemingly inferior East Division opponents no less. Expect them to bounce back on Thursday as they hit the road for the first time this season and play their first division game. In Week 1, it was all about a lack of execution for Edmonton as it marched up and down the field but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns against the RedBlacks. Last week, the Elks were simply overmatched by an Alouettes squad that came out firing on all cylinders on both sides of the football, but particularly on defense as they were all over Elks QB Trevor Harris all night long. I think the case can certainly be made that the Elks overlooked the Als. They won't make the same mistake against the Lions, who are coming off an upset win on the road against the Stampeders. The news has now come out that Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell has a broken fibula and all indications are that he was playing hurt in last week's game against B.C. Credit for the Lions for coming up with the win, but let's not get too excited. They're still dealing with injury issues to starting QB Mike Reilly with reports from practice this week indicating that he is still having trouble pushing the football down the field. While he is expected to start on Thursday night you can take that news with a grain of salt as we've seen plenty of mystery around the QB position in B.C. already this season. While the Lions offensive line held up well last week, I still think it's an area of concern with big offseason acquisition Ryker Matthews sidelined due to a head injury. He isn't expected to be cleared to play this Thursday night. This one really comes down to whether we can trust the Elks offense. If Edmonton is going to turn things around, that's the area that needs to improve the most and I'm confident we'll see just that on the fast track at B.C. Place on Thursday. This is an ultra-talented group led by veteran QB Trevor Harris and WR Greg Ellingson. After being held to just one catch for one yard last week, I believe we can bank on a big bounce-back performance from Ellingson in particular. Harris was given no time to operate against the Als retooled pass rush but should find the going a little easier against the Lions this week. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 45.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has gone 7-1 so far this CFL season and that's affording us with a very low total (relatively speaking) in Thursday's Week 3 opener between the Elks and Lions. The Elks offense has been non-existent so far this season. That's certainly surprising as they opened with a pair of home dates against East Division opponents in the RedBlacks and Alouettes. We did see Edmonton march the football up and down the field against Ottawa but it simply wasn't able to finish drives with 7's rather than 3's. Last week, the Elks certainly appeared to overlook the Als, and paid the price, unable to contend with Montreal's aggressive pass rush. Here, I do expect to see the Elks offense come alive on the fast track at B.C. Place. This is still an offense that features capable leaders at the skill positions on offense in QB Trevor Harris, WR Greg Ellingson and RB James Wilder. With Ellingson in particular coming off a brutal one-catch, one-yard performance last week, I expect a big bounce-back effort here. The Lions, like the Elks, boast incredible talent at the skill positions on offense but QB Mike Reilly's injury issues have held them back so far. They will welcome RB Shaq Cooper to the fold for the first time this season on Thursday, adding another level to what has the potential to be an explosive offense should Reilly be given time in the pocket to operate. As I said, I expect the Elks to break out offensively in this one while the Lions have already shown the ability to thrive in a catch-up role back in Week 1 (they nearly came all the way back from 31-0 down in a 33-29 loss). We don't need a true shootout to cash this ticket as we've been given a low total to work with. Take the over (9*). |
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08-14-21 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
CFL o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Edmonton at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've seen plenty of low-scoring games to open this CFL season - likely a product of their being no preseason this year. Here, I do think we'll see a little more offense as the Elks already have a game under their belts while the Als had an extra week of practice, and I expect them to be considerably stronger offensively than defensively once again. The Als certainly improved their pass rush in the offseason, with their big acquisition being former Elk Almondo Sewell. However, I do feel that Elks QB Trevor Harris should be able to get the ball out quickly enough to his talented group of wide receivers to find some offensive success in this one. There was plenty of rust last week as the Elks moved the football but couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Against a weak Als secondary, there's reason to believe some of those field goal drives will turn into touchdowns here. The Als offense is virtually intact from 2019. There is top talent at all the skill positions, led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback. While the RedBlacks below average offense wasn't able to do much against Edmonton last week, I'm confident we'll see the Als open things up here. Keep in mind, when these two teams last met in the 2019 playoffs, we saw 66 total points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Toronto +6.5 v. Winnipeg | 7-20 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Argos are coming off a stunning 23-20 win over the Stampeders on a last-minute field goal last week. Of course, that victory doesn't look quite as impressive after Calgary dropped a 15-9 decision at home against B.C. last night. With that being said, I do expect Toronto to once again turn in a quality performance away from home against the defending champion Blue Bombers on Friday night. I'm confident we'll see Toronto effectively shorten this game by pounding away with top-flight RB John White. Keep in mind, the Bombers will be without their best run stopped in Steve 'Stove' Richardson for this one while stud edge rushers Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat are also questionable to suit up (I'm making this play with the expectation that both do play). Winnipeg got a tremendous performance from veteran QB Zach Collaros in last week's win over Hamilton. Collaros was comfortable in the pocket all night long thanks to a strong effort from the Winnipeg o-line. I do think we'll see him under duress far more often in this one, however. I still rate the Bombers as having one of the league's weaker wide receiving corps, especially with Darvin Adams and Ardarius Stewart sidelined due to injury. Take Toronto (8*). |
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08-13-21 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 47.5 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We've seen four of the first five CFL games this season stay 'under' the total - partly due to the fact that there were no preseason games this year. I expect that trend to continue for at least one more night on Friday. Look for Toronto to make every effort to effectively shorten this game by leaning on their rushing attack led by standout RB John White. With the Bombers missing elite run-stopper Steve 'Stove' Richardson, there's reason to believe the Boatmen can find some success moving the chains on the ground and ultimately putting together long, clock-churning drives. However, Toronto does have a relatively limited passing attack right now. Despite last week's victory, we didn't really see many big splash plays from QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson and the pass game. While the Bombers do employ an inexperienced secondary, I'm not convinced the Argos are well-equipped to take advantage. Winnipeg turned in a sharp offensive performance against Hamilton last week but should have its hands full against a revamped Argos defense that held Calgary to only 20 points last week, and has gotten healthier since. Take the under (8*). |
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08-12-21 | BC v. Calgary -7 | 15-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary minus the points over B.C. at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. Our two losses in CFL action last week came on plays involving these teams as we suffered an epic bad beat with the Riders in B.C.'s incredible comeback loss (but cover) while the Stampeders blew a second half lead (and cover) in a field goal loss to the Argos. Here, I like the way this one sets up as a big bounce-back game for the Stamps at home. B.C. had a miserable 2019 season and it might be in for a similar fate here in 2021 if Week 1 was any indication. Yes, give the Lions credit for not quitting and rallying back to nearly steal a win after falling behind 31-0 in the first half in Saskatchewan. However, the fact that it dug such a hole was telling. The Lions defense is saying all the right things heading into this one as it did hold an excellent Riders offense to just one second half point in last week's 33-29 loss, however that had everything to do with game flow. The Riders offense quite simply took its foot off the gas after building that 31-0 lead. B.C. won't be so fortunate here as the Stampeders come into this one in a foul mood after a disappointing season-opening loss at home. There were a lot of positives for Calgary to take away from last week's game. The offense was able to march the football up and down the field and just as easily could have put up 30+ point were it not for some miscues at the end of drives. That probably should have been expected with QB Bo Levi Mitchell missing considerable time in the 2019 season and then having no preseason games to get back in rhythm here this year. I do expect to see progression from the Calgary offense this week. Defensive, the Stamps were terrific last week, making a number of splash plays. Now they get too tee off on a weak Lions offensive line that will be without big offseason acquisition OL Ryker Matthews. Rookie QB Nathan Rourke is expected to start under center but don't be surprised if we see plenty of Michael Reilly as well. I'm not sure either are a great option at this point with Rourke still trying to learn the CFL game and Reilly clearly playing at less than 100%. Take Calgary (10*). |
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08-07-21 | Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks UNDER 46.5 | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ottawa and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. Full writeups will return for Week 2. I’m not expecting a lot of offensive fireworks as the RedBlacks travel to Edmonton to face the Elks on Saturday. There are virtually no household names on the RedBlacks offense and while new head coach Paul LaPolice will squeeze all he can out of this group, it won’t happen in Week 1 off no preseason. Edmonton has an explosive offense led by QB Trevor Harris but again, with no preseason games I’m not convinced we’ll see the offense come out firing on all cylinders here. The Elks defense should be better than most expect and they can certainly handle this matchup on Saturday. Take the under (6*). |
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08-07-21 | Toronto v. Calgary -5 | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Full writeups will return for Week 2. I’ll give the Stamps the benefit of the doubt in their home opener and feel this line will prove too short. With a healthy Bo Levi Mitchell the Stamps are eager to put the 2019 season behind them. While there are plenty of new faves, the cupboard is always well stocked in Calgary. Toronto has the potential to make some noise in the East Division this season but this is a tough Week 1 road matchup against one of the West Division’s perennially elite teams. Take Calgary (6*). |
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08-06-21 | BC v. Saskatchewan -6.5 | 29-33 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Saskatchewan minus the points over B.C. at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I actually thought we'd see an opening line closer to double-digits for this one as the Lions travel to Regina to face the Riders. The Lions have high hopes coming off a disastrous 2019 campaign where they simply couldn't keep veteran QB Mike Reilly upright due to major issues in pass protection. However, Reilly is already dealing with shoulder issues and while he's likely to start on Friday night, whether he can finish the game probably depends on how well the Lions new-look offensive line holds up. While I absolutely love the make up of the Lions receiving corps, I have questions whether they can hit the ground running against a terrific Roughriders secondary led by Ed Gainey on Friday night. RB Shaq Cooper was B.C.'s big offseason acquisition but he isn't expected to play in this game leaving backfield duties in the hands of ex-XFL RB James Butler. If the Lions aren't able to consistently run the football there's little reason to expect anything other than for the Riders defense to pin back its ears and tee off on Reilly. Offensively, the Riders return virtually all of the key pieces from their West Division-winning roster two years ago. QB Cody Fajardo is one of the CFL's stars but perhaps doesn't get talked about enough. With aggressive play-caller Jason Maas taking over offensive coordinator duties, the sky should be the limit for the Riders passing game. With that being said, Saskatchewan also boasts one of the league's best running backs in William Powell and I expect him to find plenty of room to run against an average Lions defensive front. While the Riders defense loses four starters from the 2019 edition - mostly up front - the cupboard is by no means bare and defensive coordinator is a true up-and-comer in CFL coaching ranks after taking over for Chris Jones two years ago. Take Saskatchewan (8*). |
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08-05-21 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg UNDER 51.5 | Top | 6-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The 2021 CFL opener features a rematch of the last CFL game that was played - the 2019 Grey Cup between the Blue Bombers and Tiger-Cats. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair than most as these two offenses take some time to settle into a groove after no preseason games and no real game action since that title showdown in 2019. The Blue Bombers return most of the key pieces from that Grey Cup winning squad. With that being said, they're the underdog for a reason in this one. RB Andrew Harris isn't expected to play on Thursday and while he is supported by a couple of capable backs, his absence certainly can't be overlooked. Keep in mind the Bombers are ushering in a new offensive era in some respects with former CFL quarterback Buck Pierce taking over the offensive coordinator reins from Paul LaPolice, who has moved on to Ottawa to take on a head coaching role. LaPolice squeezed every bit of potential he could out of this offense as the season went on in 2019. I simply question whether we'll see an explosive attack right out of the gates here in 2021 with what I would consider a less-than-imposing wide receiving corps at Collaros' disposal. Defensively, the Bombers are set up well with a cohesive unit that boasts plenty of returning starters keyed by Willie Jefferson - the league's reigning Most Outstanding Defensive Player. This is a group that enters the new season with a chip on its shoulder after some felt it 'fluked' its way to a Grey Cup championship. I'm not on board with that line of thinking - this defense absolutely terrorized Dane Evans in the 2019 Grey Cup, camping out in the backfield and will now face a Hamilton offensive line that no longer has Ryker Matthews protecting Jeremiah Masoli's blind side. With many of the Bombers defensive players training together in the offseason (a long one at that), this is a group that should hit the ground running on Thursday night. The Tiger-Cats need to restock the cupboard in some sense defensively but there's still plenty of talent to go around, and I don't think this is a bad opening night matchup for them to get their legs back under them. Simoni Lawrence is still on board to lead the defense - we're talking about perhaps the best-coached defense in the entire CFL so I certainly wouldn't expect it to lay an egg on Thursday. Offensively, there's not a true QB controversy in Hamilton but starter Jeremiah Masoli has to feel a bit of pressure as he opens the campaign with backup Dane Evans breathing down his neck. While the duo of Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison is electric, I expect the Blue Bombers to do what they can to take away the big hitters down the field and Hamilton won't shy away from pounding the football with newly-acquired feature back Don Jackson and Sean Thomas-Erlington back healthy. There's a lot of familiarity between these two teams with both rosters remaining relatively intact and with so much time to gameplan for the season-opener following no preseason games, I think we'll see a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg UNDER 52 | 12-33 | Win | 100 | 58 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in the Ti-Cats blowout win over the Eskimos last week (but won with Hamilton) and cashed with the Blue Bombers in their minor upset win over the Riders in Saskatchewan. Here, I see value in the 'under' as the Ti-Cats and Bombers do battle with the Grey Cup on the line in Calgary. The Ti-Cats exploded for 36 points in last week's victory, although it's worth noting that QB Dane Evans actually completed only 21-of-36 passes while throwing only one touchdown and one interception. Their leading rusher in that game was Cameron Marshall with just 31 yards on the ground. They'll be facing a much tougher defense this week. The Bombers have turned the offensive reins over to former Ti-Cats QB Zach Collaros and while he has played well, I really feel he's more of a game manager than the dynamic Chris Streveler, who is still a big part of the offense. Note that it was Streveler who completed 31-of-42 passes for over 300 yards the last time these two teams met. If you've followed my plays regularly, you know that I'm high on the Ti-Cats defense - arguably the best in the CFL. I'm confident they can keep the Bombers offense in check on Sunday. Note that two regular season meetings between these teams totaled just 38 and 46 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Winnipeg +3.5 v. Saskatchewan | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over Saskatchewan at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. The Riders miserable 1-3 start to the season has long been forgotten as they've been one of the best teams in the CFL for months now, doing it largely on the strength of a stellar defense that has come up big time and time again. Here, however, I believe they're up against it facing a Blue Bombers squad that has really come together over the course of three consecutive battles with the Stampeders, culminating with last week's stunning 35-14 rout in Calgary. QB Zach Collaros has stepped in and given the offense a nice balance with Chris Streveler still contributing as well. Defensively, it doesn't get much better than holding Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell to 12-of-28 passing for 116 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions last week. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair all the way on Sunday and will gladly take the points with the Bombers. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Edmonton v. Hamilton UNDER 50.5 | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Hamilton at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both regular season meetings between these two teams went 'over' the posted total we're dealing with on Sunday and the Eskimos are coming off a wild, high-scoring 37-29 win over Montreal last week to earn a spot in this Grey Cup semi-final matchup. I'll gladly take the contrarian route, however, and call for a lower-scoring game than expected as the Eskimos and Tiger-Cats do battle on Sunday afternoon in Hamilton. Eskimos QB Trevor Harris has appeared in just two games since the first week of September but certainly looked to be in excellent form in last week's win over the Alouettes. He was afforded a clean pocket for much of the afternoon and took full advantage, completing 36-of-39 passes for 421 yards and a touchdown. The fact that he was only able to throw one touchdown was telling, however, as the Eskimos have struggled to finish drives with 7's on the board for much of the season. Here, look for Harris to be under duress all afternoon long as the Esks take a big step up in class against the Ti-Cats defense. Hamilton QB Dane Evans has done a tremendous job leading the offense since taking over the starting job for an injured Jeremiah Masoli, but I do wonder how he'll handle the big stage on Sunday. Note that the Eskimos defense will be getting their third look at Evans since September 20th. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Edmonton v. Hamilton -5 | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 75 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Edmonton at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eskimos have gone winless in two meetings with the Tiger-Cats this season and while it's awfully tough to beat any opponent three times in the same season, I do think Hamilton will be up for the challenge on Sunday. The Ti-Cats defense has really stepped up down the stretch, allowing fewer than 20 points in seven of their last 10 games. With Edmonton struggling to finish drives with touchdown all season long, there's reason to believe the Hamilton defense will thrive once again on Sunday afternoon. Eskimos QB Trevor Harris was afforded a clean pocket all afternoon long in Montreal last week but won't be so fortunate here. The Ti-Cats have proven to have the ability to not only score on offense, but on special teams and defense as well. That could prove to be the difference here. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Montreal v. Toronto UNDER 55 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 12 noon et on Sunday. I really like the way this total sets up as the Alouettes and Argos do battle in a neutral site game in Moncton, New Brunswick Canada on Sunday. The Als are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Calgary last week, ultimately pulling out a 40-34 win in overtime. Keep in mind, Montreal didn't score a touchdown until the third quarter in that game and ultimately scored just two offensive touchdowns in regulation time. In its three previous games it had scored a grand total of just 57 points so this is by no means an offensive juggernaut. Likewise, the Argos failed to score a touchdown until the third quarter in last week's 41-26 loss to the Eskimos. We have seen some positive signs from the Toronto offense in recent weeks but I believe it will be in tough against a somewhat underrated Als defense that has held the opposition to just 26.5 points per game on 313 passing yards and 95 rushing yards per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Hamilton v. BC +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 85 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Hamilton at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Lions in the first matchup between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Vancouver on Saturday night. There's no question the Lions have had this rematch circled after blowing a huge fourth quarter lead in that narrow 35-34 loss in Hamilton two weeks ago. The Lions were in a tough spot last week, playing on limited rest, and ultimately fell in blowout fashion, but not before putting up a fight for a half. B.C. gave up an early first quarter touchdown in that game but actually held the Bombers out of the end zone until late in the third quarter after that. Here, they'll face a Ti-Cats offense that is still without its best player in QB Jeremiah Masoli. Backup Dane Evans has done an admirable job filling in for Masoli, but has also been turnover prone, tossing four interceptions compared to five touchdowns. Hamilton has played it fairly close to the vest with Evans under center and that doesn't work particularly well here in a road favorite role traveling across the country off an easy win in Ottawa. Take B.C. (10*). |
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08-23-19 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton -6.5 | 34-28 | Loss | -107 | 60 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton minus the points over Winnipeg at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Eskimos as they host the banged-up Blue Bombers on Friday night. Winnipeg will be forced to go without QB Matt Nichols after he suffered an injury in last week's win over B.C. While Chris Streveler is a fine backup and more of a dual-threat, much of his success came when opponents didn't have tape on him early last season. I'm confident the Eskimos will come up with a gameplan to slow Streveler and the Bombers offense here. It's also worth noting that Bombers RB Andrew Harris is dealing with an elbow injury. Edmonton had a true 'get right' performance last week, as its offense finally broke out in a 41-26 win over the Argos. Expect some carry-over from that game here as the Esks roll past the Bombers. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-23-19 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton OVER 46 | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Edmonton at 9 pm et on Friday. The last time these two teams met in late June, we saw a closing total in the high-50's. Now we're dealing with a much lower number - too low in my opinion. The big reason for the total drop is the injury to Blue Bombers QB Matt Nichols. Backup Chris Streveler is certainly capable even if he hasn't passed the ball as well this season as he did a year ago when he was pressed into action early in the season. Note that Streveler has 15 rushing touchdowns going back to the start of last season. The Eskimos offense finally exploded, just as we've been expecting them to for weeks, in last week's blowout win over the Argos. Now they're back home eager to exact a little revenge against the Bombers after settling for seven field goals in their last meeting. Eskimos QB Trevor Harris continues to march the football up and down the field and last week he finally started connecting in the end zone. Expect some carry-over from that performance. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Edmonton v. Toronto OVER 50.5 | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on July 25th but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in the rematch. Since posting that 26-0 win over the Argos, the Eskimos have struggled to put points on the board, scoring just 34 points in splitting games against the Stampeders and Redblacks. With that being said, they do continue to march the football up and down the field with QB Trevor Harris completing 62-of-82 passes for over 700 yards over the last two games alone. I'm confident the Eskimos can get their groove back offensively against a weak Argos defense here. On the flip side, we saw Toronto gain a ton of confidence in a come-from-behind 28-27 win over the Blue Bombers two weeks ago. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson broke loose in that game, throwing for 343 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 44 yards. There's no question the Eskimos are a formidable defensive opponent, but are they as good as they've been in the last three games, where they have given up just 36 points? I'm not so sure. Take the over (10*). |
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08-15-19 | BC v. Winnipeg UNDER 53.5 | 16-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between B.C. and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We're working with a higher total than the last time these two teams met back in June, due in part to 56 points being scored in that contest, and also the fact that the Lions are coming off a wild 35-34 loss in Hamilton last week (we won with B.C. in that game). Here I'm anticipating a lower-scoring game than most are expecting. B.C. has actually fared well defensively for extended stretches lately. Last week we saw the Lions give up an early first quarter touchdown, but then didn't allow another offensive touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. The Blue Bombers offense has been lagging a bit lately. Despite pulling out a 26-24 win over Calgary last week, they didn't score a single offensive touchdown. While the Winnipeg defense has also let up somewhat in recent weeks, it catches a favorable matchup here as the Lions have never really figured things out with Mike Reilly at the helm. He continues to pad the stat sheet but too many mistakes have kept the Lions from truly breaking out offensively. The last time B.C. faced Winnipeg it didn't manage an offensive touchdown until three minutes into the third quarter and then never found the end zone again. Take the under (10*). |
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08-10-19 | BC +11 v. Hamilton | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Hamilton at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Lions have been absolutely dreadful this season but I believe they're being given way too many points as they travel across the country to face the Ti-Cats on Saturday. Keep in mind, Hamilton has already lost its starting QB Jeremiah Masoli to injury. Without him, it struggled to accomplish anything offensively last week in Calgary. Now the Ti-Cats are being asked to lay double-digits. The Lions are actually one of the healthiest teams in the league and they're coming off their bye week. RB Brandon Rutley will miss, but other than that, they've got away generally unscathed. We don't need an outright win from the Lions here, or anything close. I believe QB Mike Reilly will will them into a ball game on Saturday night. Take B.C. (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Ottawa v. Edmonton OVER 47.5 | 12-16 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Eskimos loss in Calgary last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Edmonton actually marched the football up and down the field at times in that game, with QB Trevor Harris throwing for 373 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This is an offense that has been somewhat snake-bitten this season with a number of potentially game-changing plays called back due to penalties, as well as drives ending with untimely turnovers. Here, I do see this as a smash spot for the Eskimos offense against a weak Redblacks defense. Ottawa has proven it can hang, however, and welcomed QB Dominique Davis back from injury in last week's overtime win over the Alouettes. That victory snapped a four-game skid in which the Redblacks hadn't scored 20 points. Needless to say, they should enter this game with a renewed sense of confidence. The 'under' has cashed in each of Edmonton's last five games, but that only serves to give us a more reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Ottawa v. Edmonton -8.5 | Top | 12-16 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton minus the points over Ottawa at 10 pm et on Friday. Bettors will likely be hesitant to back the Eskimos here after they fell as a road favorite in Calgary last week, not to mention the Redblacks overtime victory in Montreal. With that being said, I see this as a smash spot for the Eskimos offense against a very beatable Redblacks defense. Edmonton QB Trevor Harris continues to light it up even if his offense has been somewhat snake-bitten as far as finding the end zone goes. Harris threw for 373 yards and two touchdowns in last week's narrow loss to the Stamps. The Redblacks didn't score an offensive touchdown until the third quarter against the Alouettes last week. They've had a tough time with consistency on offense due in large part to a depleted backfield that has seen a lot of moving parts. RB Mossis Madu remains sidelined. When these two teams squared off in Edmonton last year, the Eskimos pasted the Redblacks 34-16. Trevor Harris will certainly be highly-motivated to hand it to his former squad. The Eskimos are 3-4 ATS on the season but 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home, where they've won their last two games by a combined 65-23 score. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-03-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary OVER 46 | 18-24 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but think this low posted total is an overreaction to some low-scoring games involving these two teams lately. The Eskimos cruised to a 26-0 win over the Argos last week and have seen each of their last three games total less than 40 points. Last week, the Edmonton offense really didn't have to force the issue at all, jumping ahead early and never looking back. I'm not sure that will be the case here. The Stampeders are coming off back-to-back wins - games that totaled just 42 and 33 points. QB Nick Arbuckle has seemed a little tentative at times in place of the injured Bo Levi Mitchell but he undoubtedly has big shoes to fill. I do think we'll see a better performance from the Stamps offense playing on an extra long week here, having not played since last Thursday. This isn't the same explosive Calgary offense we've seen in years' past, but it is still capable of busting out here at home. Keep in mind, while the Stamps managed only 17 points last week, Arbuckle did complete 30-of-37 passes for 370 yards while RB Kadeem Carey rushed for 70 yards on only nine carries. Take the over (10*). |
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08-01-19 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Saskatchewan at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in Regina on Thursday night. The Riders have seen back-to-back games play 'over' the total, scoring 83 points themselves in the process. Keep in mind, those two contests came against the one-win Lions (their only victory came against winless Toronto). Here, the Riders face a much tougher challenge as they welcome the Ti-Cats. Hamilton absolutely manhandled a previously rolling Blue Bombers offense last week, holding them to only 15 points in a hard-fought victory. I don't envision much of a letdown here as Saskatchewan will certainly have the Ti-Cats attention off back-to-back strong offensive showings. Note that Hamilton lost QB Jeremiah Masoli to injury last week so it will be up to Dane Evans to steer the offense now. Playing on a short week I can't see Hamilton really opening up the playbook for Evans. The Riders defense hasn't been great by any means, but they do catch the Ti-Cats in a favorable spot after losing Masoli. Saskatchewan, of course, lost its starting QB Zach Collaros in the first game of the season and has been going with Cody Fajardo ever since. He has been good, but not great, throwing seven touchdowns compared to four interceptions. The Riders have faced a rather soft schedule with three of their first six games coming against the Argos and Lions. Take the under (10*). |
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08-01-19 | Winnipeg v. Toronto OVER 48 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Toronto at 7 pm et on Thursday. The first meeting between these two teams totaled 69 points in Winnipeg back on July 12th. We're actually dealing with a lower posted total than we saw for that one, largely due to the ineptitude of the Argos offense. Toronto's last two games have totaled just 42 and 26 points with the Argos held off the scoreboard entirely in their loss in Edmonton last week. The Argos were able to move the football somewhat consistently in their first matchup against the Blue Bombers, however, and I do feel they catch Winnipeg in a letdown spot here, coming off its first loss of the season in a showdown with the Ti-Cats last week. Toronto's defense has seemingly gotten better lately, but it also hasn't really been involved in any close games to really test its mettle. Winnipeg had no trouble at all terrorizing the Argos defense earlier in the season and while I'm not counting on the Bombers to hang another 40+ spot on the board, I am confident they can have continued success. The 'over' has cashed in seven straight meetings and this is the lowest posted total we've seen over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan v. BC +3.5 | Top | 45-18 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 59 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Year. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. Saskatchewan defeated B.C. just last week but that was a strange game as the Lions actually outgained the Riders in terms of total yardage and had a decisive edge in first downs as well. Save for a stinker against the Eskimos two weeks ago, Lions QB Mike Reilly has looked more and more comfortable running the offense, last week completing 31-of-40 passes for 346 yards while also running for 32 yards and a score. RB Brandon Rutley enjoyed a breakout performance of sorts against the Riders, running for 73 yards on 13 carries. While the Lions did give up a whopping 38 points in last week's loss, they actually held the Riders offense out of the end zone from just over midway through the first quarter until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Things came unglued in the fourth quarter but B.C. can hang its hat on the fact that it allowed Riders QB Cody Fajardo to complete only 17 passes and picked him off twice. Outside of that victory, Saskatchewan's only other win this season came against the lowly Argos, who are arguably worse than the Lions. B.C. has now outgained three of its last four opponents and I believe it's only a matter of time before it all comes together for this squad. While Saskatchewan has owned this series recently, it's been a long time since the Riders were last favored in a game played here in Vancouver. I simply feel the oddsmakers are undervaluing what will be a desperate Lions squad on Saturday. Take B.C. (10*). |
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07-25-19 | Toronto v. Edmonton OVER 52.5 | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Eskimos 20-10 loss in Montreal last Saturday but I expect a different story to unfold as Edmonton returns home to host the winless Argos on Thursday night. Edmonton has been held out of the end zone in each of its two losses this season but that hasn't been for lack of trying. The Eskimos had plenty of opportunities to punch it in last week and even had a touchdown called back due to a holding penalty. QB Trevor Harris threw an uncharacteristic two interceptions in last week's loss but should bounce back against a weaker opponent here. Note that Harris threw for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns the last time he faced the Argos as a member of the Redblacks last season. He's had plenty of success against Toronto over the course of his career. On the flip side, the Argos came up short once again last week, falling by a 26-16 score in Calgary. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson did march the football up and down the field in that game, throwing for 343 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but also turned the football over a whopping four times. The Eskimos defense can get after opposing quarterbacks but certainly isn't the same type of ball-hawking unit as the Stamps possess. With RB James Wilder Jr. injured, Brandon Burks will take over backfield duties for Toronto and I do feel he's better-suited for the CFL game as a true scat back. We saw a pair of low-scoring games between these two squads last year but prior to that their last four meetings had reached 57 points or more. Expect a return to 'normal' in this series here. Take the over (10*). |
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07-25-19 | Calgary v. Ottawa UNDER 51 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'm not anticipating a lot of offensive fireworks when the injury-plagued Stampeders and Redblacks do battle on Thursday night in Ottawa. Calgary's offense continues to lag with elite QB Bo Levi Mitchell sidelined. Keep in mind, they're still missing their best running back in Don Jackson as well. If anything, we've seen regression from the Stamps offensive unit over the last couple of weeks, after QB Nick Arbuckle had shown some flashes of brilliance in his first appearance this season. As much as they would like to open up the offense here, I'm still not sure Arbuckle has a complete grasp of the playbook. The Redblacks put up just a single point in last week's loss against arguably the best team in the league in Winnipeg. QB Jonathan Jennings was truly awful in his first start in the absence of Dominique Davis. Ottawa got off to a tremendous start this season but that was largely due to the arm (and legs) of Davis. Here, I expect the Redblacks to take a rather conservative approach against a Stampeders defense that leads the league in turnovers and racked up four interceptions last week. These two teams combined to put up 60 points back in Week 1 but the key players in that game were Davis, Mitchell and Redblacks RB Mossis Madu, who is also now sidelined due to injury. None of last year's three meetings between these two teams, including the Grey Cup, reached more than 43 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-19 | Edmonton v. Montreal UNDER 54.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a bit of a tough spot for the Eskimos as they stay on the road for a third straight game and travel east to face the upstart Alouettes in Montreal. Having allowed 28 points or less in all four games so far this season, I do expect the Esks defense to hold up well. The Als are fresh off back-to-back breakout offensive performances, scoring exactly 36 points in wins over the Ti-Cats and Redblacks. I do think the Als offense caught both of those defenses flat-footed, but that isn't likely to be the case against a better defensive squad in the Eskimos here. Note that Edmonton held Mike Reilly and the B.C. Lions to only six points in last week's blowout victory. Much of the Montreal's offensive success has come on the legs of RB William Stanback. With that being said, Edmonton has done a tremendous job of keeping its opponent's top rushers at bay, holding John White (twice) and Andrew Harris under 50 yards on the ground in its last three contests. The Esks did allow Stanback to gain 76 rushing yards in their first meeting with the Als this season but that was on the strength of one 42-yard run. You can be sure they'll be keying on slowing down the Als lead back this week. Montreal is certainly familiar with Eskimos QB Trevor Harris from his days with the Redblacks. Note that the Als three games against Ottawa last year totaled just 46, 41 and 32 points. Montreal has certainly improved defensively as this season has gone on with a knack for turning the football over. With that in mind, we can expect Edmonton to employ a smart offensive gameplan with a focus on taking care of the football. The first matchup between these two teams totaled 57 points this season, but it's worth noting that game saw a wild 31-point fourth quarter. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around, and I'm not sure the shift is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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07-18-19 | Toronto v. Calgary -11.5 | 16-26 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary minus the points over Toronto at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Argos are off to one of the worst starts we've seen in recent CFL memory and I don't envision a turnaround in Calgary on Thursday night. Toronto lost by "only" 27 points last week in Winnipeg but the damage could have been far worse were it not for the Blue Bombers taking their foot off the gas at halftime. Winnipeg jumped ahead 31-0 before the Argos staged a mini-rally (if we can even call it that) in that game. While Toronto's offense has shown some improvement, it will run into a tough opponent in Calgary this week. The Stampeders have been doing an excellent job of getting after opposing quarterbacks, racking up nine sacks over their last two games alone. While they did give up 30 points in a loss in Hamilton last week, they actually held Ti-Cats Jeremiah Masoli to under 200 yards passing and limited the Hamilton ground game to fewer than 70 rushing yards. They should feast on a one-dimensional Argos offense that hasn't shown any ability whatsoever to run the football. Offensively, the Stamps aren't at full strength with QB Bo Levi Mitchell and RB Don Jackson sidelined. QB Nick Arbuckle did settle in last week, however, throwing for 368 yards on 24 pass completions. There's reason to believe they'll be able to get their ground game going here as well, considering Toronto is allowing over six yards per rush this season. Take Calgary (10*). |
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07-13-19 | Calgary v. Hamilton -4 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday. It's been a long time since the Ti-Cats defeated the Stampeders but it's also been a long time since they've been favored in this matchup. Injuries on Calgary's side have opened the door for the Ti-Cats to be favored here, and I look for them to take advantage. The Stampeders are coming off a blowout win in Saskatchewan last week as they caught the Riders flat-footed. Keep in mind, QB Nick Arbuckle completed just 19 passes in that victory. The defense did most of the heavy-lifting. The Ti-Cats are coming off a tough loss in Montreal last week. They certainly weren't sharp in that one, perhaps suffering a letdown following three straight wins to open the season. I do look for them to bounce back here. It's worth noting that they're expected to have WR Bralon Addison back on the field. He's been a breakout star this season but was injured and missed last week's loss. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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07-13-19 | Calgary v. Hamilton UNDER 55.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Hamilton at 7 pm et on Saturday. Calgary is missing a number of key cogs on offense right now but its defense has certainly stemmed the tide, including a stellar performance last week in Saskatchewan - a game in which it allowed just 10 points. The Stamps defense will need to be good again this week as I'm not sure it's offense is good enough right now to win a shootout with the Ti-Cats. Hamilton did not play well on either side of the football in last week's loss in Montreal. I look for the Ti-Cats to bounce back here, noting their defense catches a break not having to face Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell or RB Don Jackson. In their two previous home games this season, the Ti-Cats gave up a grand total of just 27 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-11-19 | Edmonton v. BC +3.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Edmonton at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Lions in this one as they look to avenge a 39-23 loss suffered against the Eskimos earlier this season (we won with Edmonton in that game). We successfully faded the Lions last week as well, grabbing the points with the Argos in a game that went right down to the wire. It wasn't a stellar performance from B.C., but it did manage to string together a pair of second half touchdown drives and didn't allow an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the fourth quarter. Now the Lions return home for the first time since their season-opening loss to the still-undefeated Blue Bombers. I'm not sure the Eskimos bye week came at the best time as they were off their first loss of the season - a game in which they failed to score an offensive touchdown. Keep in mind, Edmonton hasn't won here in Vancouver since October of 2017, when it needed overtime to secure the victory. QB Mike Reilly is getting more comfortable in the Lions offense with each passing week. I like the Lions chances here. Take B.C. (10*). |
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07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto +8 | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket fading the Argos on Monday in Regina but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Toronto as it returns home to host winless B.C. The Lions should bounce back here, but should is the operative word. The transition to Mike Reilly hasn't really been a smooth one and let's face it, the B.C. defense has been awful when it's mattered most. Last week the Lions gave up two touchdowns in the final two minutes to fall by a 36-32 score in Calgary, after the Stamps lost QB Bo-Levi Mitchell to injury earlier in the game. Toronto hasn't looked good through two games and now it will have to go without QB James Franklin for a while. I still think the Argos have enough talent to compete, however, and it's surely worth noting that they were at least competitive here at home last season, going 4-5 SU. That included a victory over the Lions in an underdog role. The underdog has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. Take Toronto (10*). |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in Winnipeg last week as the Blue Bombers defeated the Eskimos. I won't hesitate to switch gears here as the Bombers play outside the West Division for the first time this season, traveling to Ottawa to face the upstart Redblacks. The Bombers are in midseason form offensively, having scored 61 points through their first two games with QB Matt Nichols throw for six touchdowns and just one interception. Last week against Edmonton they scored a pair of offensive touchdowns in both the first and third quarter. They did let the Eskimos back in the game in the fourth quarter but I look for them to do a better job of keeping their foot on the gas offensively on the road this week. The Winnipeg defense bent but didn't break against Edmonton, allowing a whopping seven field goals. It has actually allowed just one offensive touchdown through two games, but keep in mind, the Bombers season-opener came against a Lions offense that was still working out the kinks with new QB Mike Reilly. Ottawa has come storming out of the gates offensively this season, scoring 76 points in wins over Calgary and Saskatchewan. Unlike the Eskimos, who ran the football just four times on the Bombers last week, we can expect the Redblacks to pound the football with some success on Friday night. Dual-threat quarterbacks have long had success in this league and now it's Boston College alum Dominique Davis' turn. After a shaky debut that saw him throw four interceptions against Calgary, he bounced back to throw for 354 yards and three touchdowns (and no interceptions) last time out. I'm not sure the Bombers defense is as good as it has shown so far. The Redblacks won't shy away from a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |