I think the Raiders are being undercooked here because of the blowout loss to the Bills last  week. Most people see the final the score but the Raider had over 6 yards per play which is impressive, however they were -3 in turnovers which will do it to ya in the NFL for getting blown out.  Raiders first home game on Sunday night and the Steelers coming off a two defensive touchdown game in prime time.

Andy Dalton is a go here for the Panthers and I trust him to delivery here in this game.  The Panthers have looked lost on offense but their defense is more than respectable.  I think they will move it on a Seattle team who's defense hasn't looked anything special at all.  Seattle being overvalued. here because of the misleading win last week @ Detroit.  Carolina keeps this close

Lawrence and company are just a tad overrated here IMO.  The Chiefs last week did everything to lose the game with double digit penalties and 3 turnovers, yet the Jags still couldn't find the end zone.  Stroud is gaining some confidence also throwing the ball and since the Texans haven't covered in any game yet they are being way undervalued.  

The Broncos are really in a do or die spot this week and I believe Payton gets them to respond here as he knows how important this is.  The Broncos are 0-2 and filled to cover both games so they will be desperate here.  Miami has had maybe the worst travel spot you could ever ask for to start the season.  They went to LA week 1, then @ Patriots last week and now back home.  Miami is a very good team but their D is suspect at best.  Denver can shorten up the game here control. the clock long possessions. 

Most will say this is an elimination week for the loser of this week.  People are forgetting here at the Chargers were favored by 3 over the Dolphins in week 1 and that Miami team is easily a top 5 team right now, now they are a dog?.  Look, I know Ecjler might be out but Herbert will be having a field day here against a soft D in Minnesota.  

I think the narrative here is that the Browns are done with Chubb being out.  Well they signed Hunt who is very familiar with the offense and gameplay which is a huge help.  The Browns blew that game last week given the fact that the Steelers needed two defensive touchdowns to beat them.  Titans are off a big OT win against the Chargers given them a little bit of respect.  The difference will be the Browns defense who hasn't allowed a snap inside the red zone this season.  

Wrong team is favored here in this game point blank.  The Packers only lost by 1 last week vs the Falcons but they were outgunned by 200 yards last week so it was pretty misleading.  Jordan Love is getting a lot of credit but he only has a 55% completion which isn't good.  The Saints D is no joke most would consider border line top 5.  The Saints are 2-0 but haven't covered yet this season so the betting public won't be on them here.

I had the Dolphins last week in a winner vs the Chargers but I will fade them this week in what feels like a brutal spot.  They have to travel clear across the country here on Sunday night.  Also, I love playing the angle here of 0-1 vs 1-0 teams.  The Patriots flat out blew a huge chance to beat the Eagles last week.  The Dolphins D I wasn't impressed with at all giving up chunk plays and they won't be able to have the huge plays on offense either in this game. Patriots win outright

Way too much of an over reaction here in this game.  We all know the news to Rodgers and yes the line deserved to climb some,  but nearly double digits?  The Cowboys are getting a ton of respect because of the 40 point blowout vs the Giants.  The main thing here is that the Jets defense can simply keep them in games.  If Zach doesn't make the massive mistake they will have a chance to win this game outright.  Way too many points here

I'm rolling with the Texans here in this game.  I give them a little pass last week with a new HC and rookie QB on the road.  They hung tough in the first half against what most are considering a playoff team in the Ravens.  Colts did make it interesting vs the Jags but they had the fluky defensive TD that helped them and still didn't cover.  Texans D a little better and played the better opponent.  I think wrong team is favored here. 

I think the betting public will be all over the Packers here in this game simply because of last week.  Everything went the Packers way just from the start as they stopped the Bears on a 4th and 1 and scored on that possession.  Both these teams had a similar win total entering the season so based upon that the Falcons should actually be favored and they were in the look ahead lines.   But, we know public perception means a lot.  I think the Packers will have their hands full and the Falcons defense is just so much better than the Bears.

This game should be PK.  The Bucs had probably the biggest misleading final of the week as their offense was just horrible.  They had no business winning that game outright vs the Vikings and are being inflated because of that.  I wasn't impressed with the. Bucs D either and Fields and company will move the ball here.  This is just the buy low spot on the Bears coming off what appears to be a big loss and sell high on the Bucs in a game they are getting too much credit for 

A lot of unknowns here with both teams entering this season, but the Broncos have already been bitten by the injury bug.  Patrick and Judy out for them at WR.  I also think Wilson is a huge problem as there were no signs of improvement as the season went on last year.  The Raiders are being priced too low here as  they blew 5 leads up by double digits last season.  McDaniels coaching for his job this season.  Jimmy G is also healthy here which won't last but hey as long as he's 100% I. think the Raiders went outright 

I'm going to trust the Patriots here with all off season to prepare for this game.  The Patriots have the defense here even though the Eagles are loaded on both sides here the Super Bowl loser always has that hangover outside of a guy named Brady.  The betting public will be all over Philly and the books know that.  They are really taking a stand here not moving this line and I believe for right reason.  

I love the Browns here this week vs their rival in the Bengals.  The whole betting public will be all over the Bengals because of the star power they have.  I think Burrow injury and him not playing does play a factor into this as we witnessed him having a slow start last season.  The Browns and Watson I expect major improvement this season.  Also the Browns have dominated going 8-2 SU the last 10 games. 

I'm not convinced at all in the Jags despite them making the playoffs as they. backed into last season.  This is just too many to be laying on the road vs a division rival in week 1.  I know the Colts have rookie QB but it's an upgrade to what the Colts have been. playing with last season.   By all accounts also Richardson has won the. locker. room over this off season.    People are giving the Jags too much respect 

The Texans I will admit didn't look great this preseason and Stroud for sure had his struggles.  This. is just too many not to take against a Ravens team who has had. their struggles on offense and they really dont blow many teams out.  Also this is a young Ravens crew they are relying on here for points outside of Lamar.  I'm also down on the Ravens this year as I think that division is so hard they won't make the playoffs this season.  Texans will be mighty improved on the defensive side which is why I believe they can keep this close 

I'm adding the Bucs here this week.  Tampa I don't believe will be. a good team at all this season and I think most will agree.  I do think though they will be a team to play getting 6 or more in certain spots. Look, the Vikings were literally the luckiest team we have. seen in a while winning all those close games.  Baker has a major chip on his shoulder while Minnesota tries to replace a horrible defense.  It's just the perception here that has this line way too high. 

So both teams here are frauds I think it's fair to say. Both teams have battled injuries here all season long but the Chargers everyone like to appoint them as a great team but I dont see it.  I think a brutal matchup for the Chargers on the defense side here as the Titans will just run them into the ground.  This game is a coin flip and I see it a FG or less either way.

I like the Bucs here in this game.  Let's just look at the value here last week the Bengals were bet down to -4 @ home vs the Browns.  Bucs are clearly better than the Browns.  Now though you're telling me that the Bengals are laying 3.5 on the road against a very desperate team?  Brady's back is against the wall here and I think they show up

Love the Raiders here this week.  I know most people will look at the Raiders from last Thursday and think that they are done.  Well they might be but I think they show up here for this one as they do still have a shot to make the last spot for the playoffs.  I expect a major gameplay change here this week with a lot more passes.  Patriots were just the same here last week on Monday night vs the Cardinals and no one in their power rankings has the Cardinals the same as the Raiders.  

I dont wanna overreact to the Jags last week with an impressive win, but I think they might have found something.  I know they benefitted a lot from the turnovers but that win was probably a season saver for them.  Cowboys have also struggled not just last week vs the Texans but people are forgetting that the Cowboys were only up 2 against Colts last in the 3rd and it was such a misleading game.  Cowboys have a major look ahead with the Eagles on deck.

I like the Jets here this weekend.  This to me is the Best sell high buy low spot of the week on any game.  The Lions have won 4 of their last 5 and did beat the Vikings but it was a misleading game with Cook fumbling inside the 5 yard line.  The Lions away from home their offense only averages 15 ppg.  The Jets defense is still playing hard here and the outdoors I think Goff struggles.  Jets last 3 losses are all on the road last two home games they won both including the Bills.

Grab Now

Grab Now

I really like the Bills here this weekend.  First, they are off the mini bye after playing Thursday.  I also love them for the revenge angle here and Allen will be really motivated because he cost them in the first meeting.  I also think the betting public is a little off on the Bills right now also as they really haven't been dominating to many.  Well go back to the first meeting and they were -10.5 @ the Jets.  We are getting a cheaper price here at home with a backup QB starting in White.  I dont think White will be able to do much vs a lot better D than he faced in the Vikings last week.  

Look I have backed the Steelers quite often and had them last week in a winner.  This is just too much love here for them this week.  The look ahead here was Ravens -4.5 and now that Lamar is out it has flipped this many?  Crazy overreaction considering that Huntley the backup isn't your normal backup.  This is still a division game and the Ravens still have a ton to play for.  I will take the full FG here

Really like the Raiders here this week.  This team many considered to be down and out after such a disappointing start.  However, the last two weeks they have rattled off too wins both in OT.  That is playing with a ton of grit here.  The main key here is that the Chargers rush D won't be able to stop Jacobs at all who is having by far his best season ever.  I like the direction of the Raiders here and this is a rematch from week 1 which the line was 3.5.  Wrong team favored here give me the Raiders.

I think this game should be a PK or the Bengals -1 which is giving us a good amount of value here.  Yes, everyone will be saying the Chiefs have revenge on their mind and sure they do, but does that automatically mean they will win?  I'm not buying it here.  The Chiefs are on a 5 game winning streak which people will like but they have only covered once in the last 7 games.  Bengals offense getting Chase back and I don't think the Chiefs can handle it.  Remember a couple weeks back how the Chargers moved it just having Allen back and Mike Williams left that game.  Bengals have way more weapons here

I will gladly take the Giants here.  Look, I know Washington is hot but now laying points on the road in a division game?  This is just crazy here.  The Giants have lost 3 of their last 4 so clearly this line is just recent bias.  Look Washington escaped last week vs the Falcons as they turned it over in the red zone late.  The betting pubic will be all over the Commnanders here also.  Really good value here with the Giants in the home dog role.

So the narrative here is that the Ravens are struggling but yet many still have them easily inside the top 10 overall which I agree with.  The thing here is that the Ravens have struggled to gain margin here but they are playing a team that now has completely quit.  The Broncos were pathetic last week in getting beat bad by Darnold and the Panthers.  Once the Ravens get up here I think they keep their foot down.  

I will take the Patriots here tonight.  Bills just haven't looked right the last month even though they have won two straight.  I wasn't impressed at all vs the Lions so I wonder if something is wrong with Allen.  The Patriots here home division dog with a good defense.  I also think Mac is continuing to improve as the season goes on here.   Give me the Patriots.

I like the Eagles here in this match up.  I think last Thursday was the season ender for the Packers.  You are also hearing now that Rodgers is playing with a broken thumb.  I dont see any extra motivation from him going forward.  Eagles last week were laying 7 on the road to the Colts.  Is there really a difference between Colts and the Packers?  I say no which is now giving us a discount on Philly.  Sunday night prime time and the Eagles haven't covered 3 straight so the public doesn't want them anymore.

This is just too many here for the Niners to be laying.  First, they are coming off a tough spot here playing a division rival on Monday night. in very high altitude which one. can argue that this particular game would take more out of you than normal.  The Niners since the Mccaffrey trade are riding hot winning 3 straight but now the value is too much.  There were laying this much vs the Cardinals with a backup QB.  They also have major games on deck with Miami and Tampa.  Saints D can keep this close.

I will take the Chiefs here in this game.  The Rams are now clearly done for the year after last week and now they are starting a practice squad player at QB.  I don't think the Rams really care anymore.  Will the Chiefs over look them and pump the brakes, I dont believe so.  Mahomes is too good to let them look ahead here.  I see the Chiefs in the 30's here and the Rams struggling to score more than 10, maybe a garbage one late.  

I believe that the Bucs are a play on team here.  They are coming off the crazy come back a few weeks back vs the Rams that really saved their season.  They follow it up with a dominating win vs a hot Seahawks team.  They are in lead of their division and I don't believe that is be accounted for here.  Browns seem to have given up IMO.  They are off back to back big games vs Miami and Buffalo.  I do think Watson coming back is a distraction as well.  Bucs D will dominate and Brady shouldn't have an issue spreading it around the field. 

I have no problem laying it here with the Jets.  By all accounts it. sounds like Fields will be out this game. With Wilson being out also I think that most will be afraid to back them.  However, I like that the fact he is because I think the D will play even harder here.  Fields just means the world to this team and how they are using him now.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Bears were skunked in this game.  Mike White is more than capable and most would make the point that it isn't a downgrade.

I like the Chargers here on Sunday night.  I think they keep this close and want revenge from week 2 loss in a game they should have won.  Granted they were a lot healthier then but that line was 3.5 at KC and now 6 at the Chargers.  Allen is suppose to be back which I think is huge for the offense.  The Chiefs are also a team that keeps people hanging around like last week with the Jags.  Chargers on primetime here in the dog role, I really like them.

The Steelers are just a different team with TJ Watt playing. We saw it again last week as Pitt was in full control vs the Saints and they went off favored.  Now the Bengals are still without Chase and yes I know they want revenge but the line hasn't been adjusted enough here IMO.  This is a tough division game and I think Pitt and Pickett have improved since game 1.  

Really like the Cowboys here this week.  The Cowboys are off a weird loss blowing double digits in the 4th quarter while the Vikings are off the weird come back win being down double digits.  The Vikings last. week was. extremely fluky and the Vikings defense here will be exposed on the gourd with Pollard.  Cowboys will also bring a ton of pressure here on Kirk.  I also think with the Packers already losing on Thursday that the Vikings are very comfortable in first and can afford losses

I like the Colts here this weekend.  I know last week they beat a bad Raiders team but it's become very clear that Matt Ryan is a massive upgrade over Ehlinger.  It feels like the Colts saved their season last week and they are back to being motivated to get back to 500.  They established the ground game with Taylor and the Eagles struggled against the run Monday night as Washington really controlled the clock.  Eagles got their first loss and I'm curious how they respond.  Colts D is above average and with the other injuries on offense I think Colts are live here 

The betting public will be all over the Bears here.  Over the last 4 weeks they have scored the most points in the league which is very impressive.  I think here on the road is a great spot to fade the Bears here and their defense is really really bad.  They are 28th vs the run and the Falcons are 4th in the league running the ball.  Atlanta with extra time here off the Thursday night game I think they get it done.

The Jets have been great going 4-0 on the road this season.  I also think that win over the Bills prior to the bye week will play a lot in peoples heads here.  The thing is though they were 3 point dogs vs the Patriots at home and lost.  I know it was misleading for sure and a pick 6 got called back but the Pats own the Jets and I see it happening again here.  Jets offense just isn't as explosive without Breece Hall.

Simply too many points for the Niners to be laying.  Yes, they are off the bye and they have a ton of hype around them now with the addition of McCaffrey.  This Niners team does have major potential but a full TD here?  The Chargers were only 3.5 dogs prime time @ Chiefs.  Chargers have a lot of injuries I get it but Herbert will move the ball and the addition this week of Allen back will provide big help.  

I'm gonna lay it here with the Rams who have flat out owned the Cardinals.  I think this team is trending downwards big time.  I know the Rams offense have failed them miserably but the Cardinals dont exactly bring the best D against them.  The Rams are 9-1 SU vs the Card L10. I trust Mcvay here to get it right