I don't see this going to 10 at all so will happily grab this number.  The Bucs once again play an ugly game of football and come out with the victory.  I think this team is very overrated as their 3 wins the highest they scored was last week and it was only 21.  I know the Bucs have injury issues but this is almost pricing the Bucs and the Bills the same and we know that is for sure not true.  Steelers getting blown out at the Bills I mean does it really matter that much?  The Bills tend to do that to people.  Pickett first home game start I think moves the ball and keeps this really close and possibly the upset.

This one also stood out to me right away.  I had the Browns in a winner last week vs the Chargers and since they covered I think they are getting some respect.  I also had the Patriots in an easy winner and it was because I really liked from what I saw with Zappe two weeks ago @ the Packers.  It was a brutal situation to be thrown in and he almost won them the game.  We know how the Browns love to play on the ground, but the Patriots do as well and yes the Browns are the best rushing attack in the league, the Patriots are top 10 also.  Browns are bottom 4 in the league against the run and I believe their best player in Ward will be out with a concussion.  Patriots win outright.

The lines has dropped from the look ahead here so I think that presents great value with the Ravens.  Baltimore didn't cover Sunday night vs the Bengals and the Giants won outright in London vs the Packers.  I think the Giants story is great and a lot of that is their new HC.  The Packers haven't looked right and plus they were favored by 8 in that game.  I know the Giants are home but the Ravens are way better than Green Bay right now.  Ravens do have some injury concerns in the secondary but the Giants aren't the air attack here to counter that.  Giants rank 26th against the run and Baltimore plays keep away here and dominates game on the ground

I really like the Jags here in this game.  I know most people are going to say it's a buy low on the Colts because they are favored less here than they were in the first meeting.  However, we have seen enough data from these two teams and the Jags are just much much better on both sides of the ball.  Colts have the worst scoring offense and the Thursday night win over the Broncos 12-9 doesn't impress me at all.  Jags have a top 10 defense here and I love the bounce back spot after a ugly loss last week vs the Texans.  Jags have owned this series covering 6 straight. 

Really like the Ravens a lot here.  I still believe the Bengals are getting a ton of respect because of what happened last season.  The Bengals also swept the Ravens last season and you better believe that Baltimore hasn't forgot about that.  The Bengals have played a cupcake of a schedule so far and literally every game was a back up QB and they are 2-2.  Ravens are. 2-2 also but have. trailed for a total of 14 seconds all year long.  Love the Ravens to get revenge here

I know this is a public side this week but to me this is by far the biggest mismatch in terms of these teaser lines.  The Niners defense is arguably the best in football and it was on full display Monday night vs the Rams.  Well, have you see anything from Baker and company that makes you think that the Panthers are cable of scoring. more than 16?   Last week they scored 16 and that included a pick six.  I think the locker room there is  in turmoil and this the Niners should be able to get up early and really keep up the pressure and force several turnovers from Baker

The Jags are very improved this season especially.  on the. defensive side of.  the ball.   They are now getting a lot of respect because of those. improvements.  I agree with an adjustment, but it has simply. been too much.  The  Jags have. been a dog in every game this season and now are. favored by 7.5 over a division opponent, who has. had. their number.   The Texans aren't good but. 7.5 here?   Mills and company were only 5 point dogs to the Chargers last week.   We are getting an overreaction.  

I really like what I saw last week from Wilson in his return.  The late final drive on the road in a tough environment  really was impressive honestly.  I think that confidence carriers over here.  Wilson also brings something to the table here that Flacco doesn't.  He has the ability to extend.  plays with his legs.  Dolphins I like, and Teddy is a good backup.  However, you want Teddy as a dog, not a road favorite.  Jets defense and offense both rank in the top 10 in overall right now, how many would have. guessed that?  I just wonder what that. Tua injury will do to the. Dolphins chemistry.

This line makes zero sense.  Last week you could have bet the Chargers -1 or even a PK.  Now they are laying a full FG?  Big time overreaction here.  The Browns lost a 50/50 game to the Falcons but Clowney and Garrett should both be back which is huge for their defense.  The Chargers just. can't get over that. hump IMO.  They had a comfortable lead and dang near lost. the game vs the Texans in classic Chargers fashion.  The Chargers defense is hurt and their lack there of ability to stop the run is a concern here. 

I like the buy low here on the Saints who are 1-3. It doesn't really matter to me who is the QB this week for them as it's more of a fade of the Seahawks.  Saints were missing Kamara and Thomas last. week and really should have beat the Vikings.  The thing here is that when the Seahawks have faced two opponents with a solid defense they were completely shut down not scoring more than 16 in both games.  Saints are desperate right now avoiding the 1-4 start.  I know they are off the London game but I also think that is keeping this line low.  Saints will also move the ball easily as the Seahawks have one of the top 10 worst defenses in the league 

Love the Patriots here laying less than a FG. Look, the Lions are vastly improved and their offense has been impressive give them all the credit.  I just think now the love is getting out of control.  I think it's a perfect and cheap spot to back the Pats off a loss.  Zappe was impressive to me being thrown into that atmosphere last week @ Green Bay.  The biggest thing here is the Lions defense is just horrible plain and simple.  The Patriots will have long drives, control the clock and keep that offense off the field.  Too much being made into Zappe being the QB when in fact. it isn't that big of drop off.

Sunday night last week worked out perfectly IMO.  The 49ers lost an ugly game to the Broncos and most will be on the Rams.  The Niners here are desperate also and simply can't fall behind with a 1-3 record compared to a 3-1 this early.  I haven't been impressed by anything with what the Rams. have shown thus far.  They are very one dimensional and believe it or not that Shanahan owns Mcvay.  The Rams only win in the last 7 meeting was the NFC Championship last season.  Niners have the better personal here. Lay the points

This game is still being played in Tampa which is great.  The betting public will be all over the Chiefs here no doubt about it.  Here is the thing though, last week the Packers were catching points @ Tampa and with the. Chiefs laying points they are suggesting that the Chiefs would be laying 2 or so to Green Bay on a neutral?  I dont buy that at all!   Bucs get Evans back from suspension and according to PFF their defense is ranked 2nd.  Brady off a loss in a dog role is something you blindly take!  

This is a total situation play here.  The Raiders are the only winless team in the NFL and are desperate to say the least.  Every single one of their games have came down to the final minute but the fact they are 0-3 is giving us a little value.  Broncos are 2-1 but talk about a team that doesn't look the part at all.  Their defense is great but wow Russ and company struggle big time.  The ultimate get right game for the Raiders or the season is over and I believe they get it right here

It's hard to fathom that the worst scoring offense in the league can lay more than a FG to anyone.  Well , that is exactly what we have here this week.  The Colts were my free pick last week in a winner but they were lucky beating the Chiefs outright.  Matt Ryan is a statue back there and the Colts were gifted an early TD to help with momentum.  The Titans aren't getting credit because of that blowout loss to the Bills, but lets face it the Bills do that to a lot of teams.  This is a division rival here and I get the better head coach plus the points.  Great buy low spot on the Titans

I will take the Browns here in what feels like an easy game.  This team is just flat out better on both sides of the ball and I have no idea why this line is this low.  I believe the Browns. loss to the Jets is still playing a huge factor when in fact that game was crazy fluky at the end and should have never happened.  Browns will control the clock here and dominate them on the ground.  I had the Falcons last week and they won at Seattle, but it's the Seahawks does that mean we really upgrade them that much?  They have covered every game and I also believe that is playing into this line here. 

I like this spot for the Steelers in what feels like the big buy low here.  They lost last Thursday to their rival the Browns and have their struggles on offense.  The Jets outside of that crazy comeback vs the Browns have been horrible.  A lot of their yards and everything are coming in garbage time so inflate some stats especially in the passing game.  Zach Wilson is coming back and while I do like him actually I wonder how effective he will be.  Steelers cheap price here at home. vs the worst team in the league.  

I love the Bills here this week.  The most misleading score from last week was by far the Bills as they dominated the game but not the scoreboard.  The Dolphins didn't even have 20 minutes of possession which is crazy.  There was. a ton of concern considering all the injuries the Bills had in their secondary but they answered the call last week.  The Ravens covered again the Patriots and the public cashed big on them and they won't be hesitant to back them again here as dogs given the situation.  The biggest take away here is that the Ravens have the worst rated pass defense and that sets up for a disaster given how much Josh Allen and company throw. the ball. 

The Seahawks are still getting respect from their week 1 win on Monday night vs the Broncos.  The Seahawks didn't exactly win that game  as much as the Broncos lost the game.  Seattle. was. horrible last. week and in fact their only. touchdown was on a FG block.   Falcons. showed me al to of heart last week not giving up to. the. Rams.  It was a wild 4th but they actually had the ball at the 20 with a chance to win the game.    I want a team that shows. heart and the Falcons did exactly that.  Wrong team favored here

The Cardinals I think were probably the luckiest team last week.  The game was over twice and the refs bailed them out with defensive holding calls that I couldn't believe.  Rams were in full control until the Falcons blocked a punt late for a TD. I think the matchup here is  just horrible for the Cardinals as the Rams DL should just dominate and  have Kyler on the run the whole game.   Rams also haven't covered a game yet either so I do feel this is a discount plus the Cardinals win I believe it's a added discount. 

Late add

I wish the Titans didn't get blown out on Monday night but we still have to take the Raiders here.  They will be full of piss and vinegar after losing the way they did to the Cardinals on Sunday.  They dominated the game  for 3 quarters and up 20-0 for over half the game.   Both teams are 0-2 but the gap here between these two is pretty big IMO.  Carr  should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field  at will here.

I know the Bengals will be popular here this week but  man this is the ultimate buy low spot here on them.  Yes, the Bengals O line is in shambles but I think they clean it up this week.  I love that the Jets also pulled off the miracle come back win over the Browns also.  The Bengals are 0-2 and this is their season on the line playing the Jets.  Burrow and company make a statement 

I really like the value here with the Texans as this game should be  a PK.   The Texans  tied the Colts  and had the Broncos on the ropes.   There isn't anything to dislike about what they have shown so far.  The Bears still getting credit for that fluky win over the Niners in a rain storm.  Fields hasn't completed  20 passes  all season. and their offense just looks miserable.  Texans win outright 

This line was a PK last week and now the Ravens are -3?  What has. honestly changed since last week?  So, the Ravens blew a big lead and the Patriots controlled the whole game against Pitt and came away with a win.  Bellichick at home as a dog is an auto play honestly.  I also haven't been that impressed with the Ravens.  It took them the 2nd half to wake up against the Jets.  Both teams have played Miami and the Patriots were just 3.5 points dogs @ Miami and the. Ravens were 3.5 point favorites vs Miami at home.  This is suggesting that the Patriots and Ravens are even.  We are getting great value here with a home dog.

This is the perfect homer spot here for the Panthers this week.  They are 0-2 but literally both losses have came down to the wire.  If the coin flipped their way would they really be dogs here?  I just think this is the home run spot for Carolina and Matt Rhule who is coaching for his job.   The Saints are without Lattimore who is suspended. The Saints were lucky in week 1 surviving the Flacons and now are laying 3 on the road with a banged up QB?  Give me the desperate 0-2 team here for the outright win.

I have to take the Titans here.  The look ahead line here was 7.5-8 and now we are getting double digits.  The Giants played good for about one quarter and the Titans couldn't put them away.  Maybe,  worth looking at in the future is fading the Titans as bigger favorites, but for this game catching 10?!  The Bills are great there is no denying that, this line is just inflated big time

Grab Now 

I'm gonna lay it with the Raiders here this week.   I  had. this. one circled and the line movement just confirms that sharp players like it also.  Look, Carr looked bad yes but the Raiders lost to a Chargers team who most consider a top 5 team in the league so can you. really blame them?   Their. defense. was extremely impressive I  thought especially in crunch time.   Cardinals are missing too many players and their defense was exposed.  I think it's a field day for Carr in a nice bounce back spot.  

I was hoping it would hit 3 but probably won't. This is just a classic over reaction to week 1 results which happens every year.  The Giants played pretty sad football 70% of the game but did hang around.  Barkley looked improved but still this is Daniel Jones as a favorite?  Panthers went off favored vs the Browns and lost on a last second 58 yard field goal.  I mean there is nothing wrong with that in fact they had higher odds to win before the kick.  Panthers should have -2 favorite grab this 

The Saints flat out have Tom. Brady's number.  They are 4-0 SU their last 4.  Even Taysom Hill beat them least season.  Saints were in a dog fight vs a division opponent but their.  6.8 yards per play was extremely impressive.  The Bucs might have beat the Cowboys but I though Tamps looked horrible and we all know how bad the Cowboys looked.  Bucs are dealing with quite a bit of injuries and the fact they only put. up 19 given how lopsided that game was should worry people.  Saints win outright.

I know the Patriots looked horrible last week but they were -3 in turnovers as well which never helps.   I had the Steelers in an easy cover and SU win over the Bengals.  Steelers created 5 turnovers but still should have actually lost the game and that was including a pick 6 to start the game.  Pitt. has a bad offense and I trust Belichick to get things straightened up.  Patriots defense was fine last week as Mac did throw a pick 6 also.  I'm not a Mac guy at all but  I  think  he gets things. cleaned up.   Also a 0-1 vs. 1-0 team which I love.

Crazy to me here that the Chargers are catching points.  So the Chiefs looked great against a very beat up Arizona team which now everyone will overreact to Mahomes and company.  He looked great and he is special but laying 4 to this Chargers team?  I know Allen is out tonight and he is a big loss but the Chargers defense is legit here and will present problems.  I also don't think the Chiefs have a special defense by any means to slow down Herbert.  4 points is just too many.

I really like the Cowboys here in this game.  I know both teams have had plenty of injuries to the OL and that is concerning.  Brady is just getting respect here and he deserves that but man he hasn't spent any time with a the new OL being gone all off season.  Bucs defense will be taking a step back this season also. I have this game valued at PK giving us some big time value with the Cowboys here at home.

Wrong team is favored here in this game.  While I know the Packers have a legit defense , this team has a different outlook on offense and I think they will be taking a major step back this season simply because they won't be putting up the points.  The Vikings I love this season and the main reason is because of their coaching change which I think we see the effects of that right away.  This is a team I would play in ML Round Robins also.

I can't believe how much this line has gone up since yesterday.  The Chiefs to me will be a major play against early and often.  Tyreke Hill isn't a guy who walks through the. door everyday.  It will be a major adjustment for Mahomes who is great but still those guys had a special connection that just can't be replaced.  A lot of negative news regarding the Carindals which actually I like in terms of line value.  Cardinals start hot and getting 6.5 is just too many.

I know the betting public will be with me here but I really like this Eagles squad this season.  If Hurts just makes a hair improvement which I fully believe he will then this team has a chance to take a major step forward.  Eagles have weapons across the board here and a huge thing is they have what most consider the best OL in football which is huge for a young QB.  I think there is also a lot of love for the Lions because they covered a ton last season and played tough.  Well, we aren't going against the Lions when they are catching 7 or more but this line is 3.5

I will take the Texans here in this division game to start the season.  I know the Texans roster isn't great by any means but the Colts laying more than a TD here on the road?  Matt Ryan Im not convinced will be the savior here for the Colts.  I think it will be a defensive battle and a low scoring affair here which adds more value to the Texans.  Mills was an underrated rookie QB last season and in fact he threw for the most TD's as a rookie last season.  

The Steelers here are just being disrespected and so is Tomlin.  People forget that this team made the playoffs despite how horrible Big Ben played last season.  Literally anything is an upgrade for them this season and I mean that.  Steelers defense is rock solid and the Bengals hang over Super Bowl loss I think they are a play against most of the season.  Division dog first game I think the. Steelers are live for this potential upset.

I will take the Bengals here this weekend.  I have heard all week that the Rams DL will dominate the Bengals OL.  Yes, it sure looks like that on paper but Cincy will have a game plan on double teams etc to try and contain Donald.  The Bengals are just a tough team.  I mean going on the road through the Titans and Chiefs is no easy task.  That comeback I think do wonders for a teams confidence.  Also, the Rams aren't a team that generally blows people out.  They play a lot of close games in general and them laying more than a FG given the Super Bowl I think the Bengals cover and win it outright 

Love the Rams here.  I think that Stafford finally turned a new leaf and that confidence will carry over into this game.  The Rams lost to the Niners not so long ago either and the Rams were up 17-0 at half in that game.  The narrative will be that Shanahan owns the Rams blah blah.  The Niners won a playoff game without scoring an offensive TD, let that sink in.  Rams route them in a revenge game 

Grab this line now.  I'm not being prisoner of the moment but I really like the Chiefs laying what may seem like a big number.  You better believe that the Chiefs haven't forgot about that horrible ending a few weeks back at Cincy.  KC was well in control of that game and her broke loose late.  I think they put a number on the Bengals.  The Bengals didn't win because of Burrow lets face it, it was the Bengals deflection on D that made it possible.  

We are adding the Chiefs here in this game.  I know there are lines at -1 or -1.5 and I would play those as well.  Let's face it, if you were to tell me prior to the season that the Chiefs would lose at home twice to the same team I would say you're nuts.  I still believe that.  Chiefs have just been rolling and I'm not putting much stock into the Bills blowout win over the Patriots.  I think they rightly overachieved.  I think KC and Mahomes are too much to handle here give me the Chiefs.  

I know the Bucs are missing guys here and some are very key pieces.  I am simply putting my trust in Brady here to get to the NFC Championship game here.  The Bucs do want revenge here from an earlier season loss to the Bucs.  The Rams did have Woods at WR in that game and that was Stafford best game of the season.  He hasn't played that great and them beating a banged up Cards team isn't doing it for me. In Tom I trust here. 

I had the Bengals last week over the Raiders and that was a winner as the Bengals really controlled the game from start to finish.  I think 3.5 is to much here and I get it that the titans had a bye week but this is the worst number 1 seed in quite some time.  I'm not worried about Henry possibly returning here.  The Titans here down the stretch lost to the Texans and almost lost twice to them.  We destroyed by the Patriots, lost to Steelers, beat the Niners but in a very fluky outcome.  I think the Bengals win this game outright.

I will take the Bengals here in this game.  This is just a situation here where I think the Raiders dont have much left in the tank. Yes, I know most will say well it's the playoffs well Sunday night against the Chargers was a playoff game and it was a taxing one to say the least.  Meanwhile, the Bengals got to rest players and importantly Burrow.  I think that is a huge advantage.  Also remember just two weeks ago the Raiders were getting 8.5 vs the Colts and now just 5 vs Cincy who is better than the Colts.  Take the Bengals. 

I have no idea how the Raiders have done it their last 3 games but what a remarkable turn around.  They have had 7 turnovers and forced 0 their last 3 games and won them all which is just wild.  They get Waller back which is huge this week.  The thing is that Herbert and company even though they have guys back their defense is simply just horrible.  I like the Raiders mojo here in making the playoffs and I will take the 3 in which I believe they will have a massive home field advantage come Sunday night 

I think the betting public will love them some Patriots here because they blew out the Jags.  The thing is here though I just see them eventually resting players.  If the Bills beat the Jets which we know they will then they win the division.  That being said the Patriots coaches will be letting the players know and I think they will sit them.  Dolphins play hard just because they lost last week doesn't mean they have quit.  

I love the Rams here at this price and would take them at 4 or 4.5 and 5.  It sounds like Lance will be the guy and if that is officially the case then this line jumps as Lance I am not a fan of by any means.  I think the notion that the Niners own the Rams is playing into this line and also the fact that Stafford has had back to back weeks of 3 turnovers.  I look for a monster effort here and they cover this short number.

Lets grab the Football team here.  This is honestly just a play on them and Coach Riveria who I believe won't let them quit and quite frankly it seems clear that the Giants have quit outright.  Last week was about as bad of performance as you could ask for.  Lay it with Washington

I just love this spot here for the Ravens.  I had the Steelers in Monday game vs the Browns and it was a homerun spot for them.  I believe this is the ultimate fade here now.  The offense is still horrible and Big Ben struggled big time.  It was just the fact that Baker injuries has been horrible himself.  Ravens want revenge from a 1 point loss earlier this season.  Also I believe they will play hard to go over .500 on the season.  

I like the Steelers here in what will be Big Ben's last home game on prime time in Monday night football.  I think it's fair to say that both of these teams are equal right now.  I mean the Steelers just beat the Titans two weeks ago.  Baker is just struggling big time and their fall here is worth noting.  I think Big Ben rises here.

Give me the 2 win team in the Lions who just play hard.  I think it's clear now that the Seahawks have gave up on the year and that was clear last week as the Bears beat them.  What does Seattle exactly want to do here?  I dont see it at all.  Their offense has been bad and them laying 7 with literally nothing to play for give me the Lions who play hard.

I will lay this number with the Saints.  I think they are very undervalued here simply because of Monday Night with a 3rd or 4th stringer in Ian Book.  Let's not forget that these Saints won 9-0 @ Tampa, yes held the Bucs to 0!  They won't have trouble here against Carolina who I believe has quit now on the season.  They will be missing several key pieces on defense.  Saints are still in the playoff hunt and hungry.

I like the 3.5 here with Washington.  These teams just met two weeks ago and the line opened Philly -4.5 at Phily well the Covid went rapid for Washington and they had to sign a 3rd string QB to start.  It was a 10-10 game at half.  I think there is extreme value here especially since Washington was embarrassed on Sunday Night Football.  

I will lay it here with the Titans for two reasons.  First, is I love the spot for the Titans here going off a Thursday night win over the Niners and having the extra time while the Dolphins are off the Monday night game vs the Saints.  Second,  The Dolphins during this streak have benefitted from playing some of the worst QB's in the league.  Book, Wilson x2,Taylor, Glennon,.  These are their most recent 5 games.  I mean come on here.  I think a big step up here and the Titans do have a healthy Brown as we saw what he means to this offense.

I know this is very square pick here in taking the Rams.  Stafford wasn't impressive at all last week but this is more of a play against the Ravens here.  This team is just so banged up especially on defense and I'm not scared if Lamar goes all signs point to he is no where near 100% anyways.  Rams OL and DL will dominate both sides here.  I will lay the short price with the Rams 

I know the sharp money will be on the Bengals but I dont think this is the spot to fade the Chiefs.  The Bengals are over valued here because of what took place last week but mind that was vs 3rd string QB.  Bengals 2 weeks ago ended beating Drew Lock who is horrible also.  Go back another 2 weeks and they lose to Chargers and Niners at home both in good spots.  Chiefs are on fire playing for the 1 seed.  

I know I grabbed a good number here with Dolphins but I would still lay it.  Sure, the Saints beat the Bucs last week but it was 9-0 with Hill at QB.  This offense still has a lot of work to do and now given their QB situation for this game facing a very underrated Miami defense I think it's an uphill battle.  I would still lay the -3

I grabbed this one early before the Covid news hit the Chiefs.  I still like the current number even though I got the worst of the number.  I simply think Big Ben and the Steelers here cooked and quite frankly they have guys out as well.  The Chiefs defense is dying around right now and Big Ben IMO will give them 2 turnovers.  I think Pringle and Hardman are good enough for Mahomes to rely on.  

This line quite frankly makes no sense.  So the Raiders go off as the favorite on Monday night vs a Browns team with a depleted roster and 3rd string QB.  They needed a late second FG to win outright which isn't an impressive win at all.  Denver was favored over the Bengals by 3 who are way better than the Raiders.  If Cincy were at Las Vegas the Bengals would be favored big time.  Value here with the Broncos.  I know Lock is playing QB but they win outright.  Also the Broncos will want revenge here from a loss earlier and that was because of the Gruden letting go situation.  

I will take the Bears here in this game.  The Bears offense really struggled in the reds zone on Monday night but man did Fields make some plays. I believe this is the dream crusher spot here for the Seahawks.  First, they played on Tuesday in a division game and now are eliminated from the playoffs which I believe is very difficult for them to rise up here.  We have a struggling offense in Seattle laying nearly a full TD?  Give me the Bears 

Give me the full 3 here with the Ravens.  The Ravens have lost 3 straight games but a combined 5 points.  Two of those losses came down to 2 pt conversions at the end of the game and they failed in both.  I think Baltimore is very underrated given those losses.  Ravens have a sour taste in their mouth after the first meeting in which Cincy destroyed them.  I loved what I have seen from Huntley the backup if he goes.  Ravens win outright 

Odds makers are tilting their hand here with who they believe IMO.  The whole world saw a couple weeks ago that the Patriots beat the Bills @ Buffalo on Monday Night.  Why wouldn't they make this 3 knowing they would get Patriots money.  Bills in a lot better weather conditions here which I think means something a lot.  Give me Buffalo for another division revenge

I know it's a weird spot for the Eagles here after playing on Tuesday against another division rival.  I believe that game was misleading as the Eagles doubled up on Washington in that game.  The Giants are probably starting 3rd stringer in Fromm and I just believe they are throwing in the towel for the season now.  Philly has the best rushing offense and the #11 overall defense.  Giants are just a mess and I have no problem laying it here with Philly. 

This is the ultimate buy low sell high spot as you are going to see.  The Colts beat the Patriots last Saturday to really make a late push here for the playoffs.  The Cardinals had a horrible game losing to the Lions outright.  Cardinals couldn't have looked any worse.  Great bounce back spot for AZ who now really needs this game.  

Give me the Browns here in this game in a do or die situation for them as far as making the playoffs.  They had a hard fought effort with a 3rd stringer Monday night and came up short late.  Baker and Landry are back which is a big boost.  I actually think they can really run the ball on the Packers.  7.5 is a lot here take the Browns 

I like the spot here for Washington tonight.  They get several guys back on defense here which I believe is key.  I think most are going to look at the QB position but lets face it did Washington have a top 15 QB to begin with? Nope.  We have a division game here and both teams need it like crazy.  I dont want any part of Philly laying this many against a decent team.  

I know I'm getting the worst of the number here but quite frankly I dont care.  I think people will look at the Bears effort last week vs Green Bay as a nice one.  While it was, the Bears did have several home run plays which just dont happen during the game.  The Vikings played on Thursday and having that extra time I love here.  The Vikings I believe just will control the game and I think that was a nice momentum win for Minnesota as they are very much alive.

Give me the Steelers here and Tomlin with their backs against the wall.  Pitt is still playing hard and evidence was last Thursday when getting destroyed at the Vikings they climbed back into that game and gave themselves a shot.  Pitt just beat the Ravens 2 weeks ago.  Titans I want nothing to do with as they are still missing players across the board.  The Titans didn't look good last week even though they won 20-0.  The Titans can afford a loss here as they return their key players next week.  I think an all out effort here from Pitt gets it done.

I will take the Lions here in this spot.  So the Lions got blown out at Denver last week and I had the Broncos.  Well, the Lions were off their first win and then cover issues took over that game.  I think now is the great spot to back them though.  We are getting 13.5 with the Cardinals on a short week. Also Hopkins has been shut down for the season and Conner is highly questionable.  I dont see the effort level being there with the Cardinals.  I love Detroit here.

I think the Jets are in a sneaky good spot here.  The Jets may have lost 30-9 last week but that was a 13-6 game going into the 4th quarter.  The Jets ended up getting exposed on the ground well Miami might be without their top 3 RB's because of Coivd and are. by far without their best player in Waddle.  The Jets played Miami tough in the first meeting as it was tied going into the 4th.  Give me all the points here

I'm going to lay it here with the Jags. This whole Urban Meyer story I believe will actually make the Jags wake up and perform their best.  They clearly hated this guy as their coach.  This is nothing but a positive here for the rest of the Jags team.  Their numbers are better than the Texans across the board anyways,  The Texans are starting Davis Mills who is the worst starting QB in the league.  Lay it with the Jags 

I really like the Colts here in this game.  The Patriots no doubt will be the most bet public dog this week and those always are a cause for concern and when I look to play against them.  I know the Patriots are vastly improved but man their schedule has been so easy you can't ignore it.  I also think the Patriots on the turf will struggle here.  The Colts are 6-2 SU their last 8 games playing as good as anyone.  I think the Colts run offense will be the difference here.  

I'm going to lay it here with the Chiefs.  I know this is a public play because of how hot the Chiefs have been playing.  Their defense has been so good quite frankly not talked about enough here.  They have held their opponents to under 20 points for 6 straight games.  They also want revenge here after losing to the Chargers earlier this season.  Chargers defense here is no good as they give up a ton a big plays. I think with the Chargers winning and covering their last 2 games is keeping this line low.  Lay it with the Chiefs. 

I like the Broncos here.  We are getting the Lions off an all out effort and their first win of the season.  The Broncos are off one of the most misleading games of the week.  they outplayed the Chiefs and held that offense to just 15 points.  Broncos should have covered that game easily but since they didn't its a discount here.  Denvers defense is playing well and I think given the spot can really shut down their opponent here.

I really like the Raiders here this week and this is a role they are so good in.  They are 5-1 ATS their L6 games as a road underdog.  The Raiders have lost 4 of their last 5 but their one win was as a 7.5 point dog t the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.  They are just a different team when catching a lot of points.  They have lost several coin flips like last week also.  Raiders are still better than Denver and these lines are the same as last week.  Chiefs offense wasn't that impressive as they needed a late pick 6 to get into the 20's.  

I must be missing something here with this game.  I think this game should be a PK.  I mean the Falcons didn't cover last week by they were only down 17-20 vs Bucs at half and didn't score at all the 2nd half.  They were only outgunned by 47 yards.  Too much respect for Carolina off the bye.  McCaffrey is done for the year once again and what is there to exactly like?  Darnold has been horrible.  Panthers have lost 4 straight home games.  Give me the Falcons here

Cowboys are off extra time winning and covering Thursday night vs the Saints.  They weren't impressive at all and need a couple late game turnovers that helped put it away.  Dak to me doesn't look right at all.  The Cowboys are just 2-3 SU their last 5 games with the two wins being the Saints and Falcons.  Washington I had in a winning effort last week.  Their defense is really playing very good right now holding 4 of their last 5 games to under 20 points.  In this league that is very impressive.  

The look ahead here was 6.5 and sure it has crossed 7 but I love Seattle here.  The Seahawks showed me a lot of fight last week in that win over the Niners and the Texans well they showed me a lot of quit.  I think that was the throwing in the towel moment last week as they scored zero.  Seattle still under valued because of their record and we all know in large part because of Russ injuries.  He finally looked healthier last week.

Plug your nose here with this game. The Saints here are bingo priced as if they are a top. half team in the league and there is no way they are.  The Eagles last week were -6.5 so odds makers are saying that the Saints and Eagles are almost equal?  Not buying it.  Saints have bad injuries across the board on defense.  Saints have lost 5 straight so you have to winder where their heads are.

I'm going to grab this one before it hits 3.  This is the homer spots of homer spots here for the Browns.  They are off their bye week and prior to that was their game Sunday night @ Baltimore.  It was a very close game they could have won despite getting no help from Baker.  The bye week came at a perfect time.  I also believe that the Browns know this is a must win here.  You can't drop below .500 right now or the season is over.  The Ravens haven't looked right in a while not scoring over 20 points for a month plus.  

I think the world and the betting public are all over the the Patriots.  I give them credit yes and everyone says well the they keep improving.  Everyone is putting Mac Jones on this pedestal and quite frankly he doesn't deserve that all.  I just think Buffalo is undervalue now and going into the season we all knew the Bills were the team to beat in this division and they still are.  Now Im getting them at home under FG?  Lay the 2.5 or the 3.

Alright we are seeing a huge overreaction here in this line.  The Ravens were laying less at home on a primetime game vs the Browns than they are that should be your first pause.  This is big time rivalry game in which the underdog has dominated.  Pitt looked horrible last week and were destroyed by division rival Bengals.  I think a great buy low spot here on the Steelers.  The Ravens were very lucky to not only win but cover Sunday night.   Lamar has looked horrible.  The offense is hasn't scored over 20 for 3 straight weeks.  Give me the live home dog here.

I will take the Seahawks in which this is a game most will be staying away or takin the Niners.  I know Russ has looked pretty poor to say the least but remember this team @ Green Bay still was in the game and that was a 3 point spread.  Now they are catching 3.6 at home vs a division rival?  Niners are without their do everything guy in Deebo Samuel which I believe will be a huge loss.

With this number staying right here all week tells you a lot.  The Raiders are coming off a big time Thanksgiving win @ Dallas.  The betting public will love them here laying less than a FG.  Well Cowboys were without their 2 best WR's for the game which played a huge factor.  Waller is hurt and highly questionable for this week which he is their best offensive threat.  I really like the momentumn that Washington is playing with right now winning 3 straight and getting themselves into the Playoff picture again.  The defense is actually playing better without Young.  

Too much love being given to the Bengals right now.  Cincy is coming off a blowout win over division rival in the Steelers.  Oddsmakers know that there won't be a shortage of money coming in on the Bengals given that they are playing well.  So two weeks ago the Chargers were -6 vs the Steelers and last week the Bengals were -3.5.  This is suggesting that the Chargers just two weeks ago on a neutral so really saying that this game should be a PK.  This is the Chargers all out game here trying to avoid going back to .500

I really like the Falcons here at this price.  The Bucs if you have watched them since their bye week a lot of things dont look too well.  The Bucs have covered their last two games but both were ugly.  The Bucs only road cover was last week and they needed a ton of help as the Colts had 5 turnovers and the game still came down to the end. In the first meeting the Falcons were only down 3 late in the third until Matt Ryan through a pick 6 and the wheels came off.  Brown is still out for Tampa and that is a huge loss.  Bucs still have injuries in the secondary and I think the Falcons keep this division game close.

I'm going to lay it here with the Eagles.  There sure aren't many times in the season where you can fade the Jets in a good spot, but here is one of them.  They are coming off a road win @ Texans with Zach Wilson returning.  He didn't look great despite winning.  Eagles have the bet rushing attack and I firmly believe that they will control the ball as the Jets are one of the worst teams against the run.  Eagles had a misleading final last week @ Giants.  They lost 13-7 and still had a chance at the end despite being -4 in turnovers.  

I will take the Texans here in a home game vs the division rival in the Colts.  I think this is a big time let down game here with the Colts off huge efforts the previous two weeks @ Bills and home to the Bucs.  Yes, last week was misleading for the Colts but the Texans lost to the Jets so clearly the line will be inflated.  In the first meeting they Texans had more first downs and the thing I like the most is that Taylor will be at QB not Mills, major upgrade. 

I love the Cowboys here tonight.  The Cowboys are off back to back losses and 3 of their last 4.  I believe this is a great spot to back them tonight at a shorter price.  They really need this game as their lead in the division has shrunk with their recent struggles.  I think to much is being made with McCarthy being out.  Also last week on Thanksgiving vs the Raiders the Cowboys were without Lamb and Cooper and still nearly won the game.  The Saints have lost 4 straight and I dont see getting better from here on out.

I will happily lay the price here with the Ravens.  Neither team right now has been covering at all as the Ravens have only covered 2 of their last 6 and the Browns just 2 of their last 7. I think the Browns are in a world of trouble.  If you take out the one outlier game which was the Bengals in which they score 41.  The other previous 5 they have failed to score above 17.  Baker is clearly banged and that is a huge concern.  Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, I will gladly take here laying just over a FG

The Rams I had circled entering this week.  They are off their bye week and I actually love that they entered it with a sour taste in their mouths losing their 2 previous games.  A lot of bad things have been said about Stafford but I fully expect a bounce back.  The Packers are really banged up on the OL right now which isn't good facing this Rams pressure and throw in the Rodgers foot trouble I think big concern here.  Love the revenge angle from playoffs and also you know Stafford is motivated going back to Lambeau to get a win

I believe these two teams are equal plain and simple.  The Chargers are laying a FG in a divines game on the road?  The Chargers defense is really really bad and do you not understand how good Teddy is as a dog?  This Broncos team is getting no respect.  Remember they went on road just two weeks ago and destroyed Dallas

This is just too many points here for the Bengals to be laying.  The Bengals are a team I want nothing to do with laying more than a FG and the Steelers are a team I would love to back in a division game getting more than a FG.  I know Pitt isn't great but they for sure have revenge on their mind and quite frankly I trust Tomlin more here.  Cincy destroyed them in the first meeting, they need to prove it to me again here.

I really believe that the wrong team is favored here in this game.  I'm not sure why all the Panthers love here.  I mean this team lost to Washington last week and are now laying points on the road to a team has has won 3 straight in the Dolphins?  I must be missing something but I think the wrong team is favored.  Cam isn't a starter anymore folks

I know I'm late to the party with the line move here but I really like the Bills.  The thing is here most people won't want anything to do with them given how bad they have looked the last month.  A big part is because of the turnovers.  Also though the Saints have major injuries everywhere now and Karmara is out again which is why I was holding out.  Saints have lost 3 straight games and I dont see how they slow the Bills offense down. 

I will lay it here with the Bears.  The fact that Dalton is playing actually makes me like this quite a bit because I know he won't be throwing in the towel.  The Lions aren't healthy here at all and yes I know they are playing hard and covering back to back weeks but I also think that is playing into the line.  Bears are much better than their record indicates.

The Chargers here I also grabbed a great early number.  Big Ben by all means is out here and Im not sure how much of a downgrade it is to Rudolph.  The main reason though is the Steelers defense suffered injuries.   Watt arguably the best defensive player in the league might no play and is no where near 100%.  Haden and Fitzpaptrick are highly questionable as well.  The Chargers just a couple weeks ago were favored by more over the Patriots.  Granted they lost the game outright but we can all agree that the Patriots are way better than the Steelers.  Lay it here

I love the Chiefs here and grabbed a great early number.  Cowboys will be the public dog of the week there is no doubt about it.  When Mahomes takes care of the ball this team is simply hard to beat.  The main reason honestly for the Chiefs is because they rank near last in turnovers in the league.  The Cowboys defense still isn't anything special and they have proven to keep given up chunk plays.  Last night Sunday night vs the Raiders was the turning point for me in the Chiefs season and I think they beat Dallas easily.  Also the Chiefs D has big time improved the last month.