Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State v. Toledo UNDER 61.5 | Top | 34-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Appalachian State Mountaineers (225) and the Toledo Rockets (226) in the Dollar General Bowl. Appalachian State (8-4) enters this bowl game having won three straight games with their 63-14 win over UL-Lafayette back on December 2nd. The Mountaineers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Appalachian State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to 20 points or less. This Mountaineers team once again has a stout defense as they ranked 33rd in the FBS by allowing 21.9 PPG — and they also ranked 39th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 358.9 total YPG. What helps the defense succeed is keeping them off the field by running the ball on offense. Appalachian State rushed for 357 yards again the Ragin’ Cajuns in that last game. Not only have they then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game but they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Mountaineers have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Appalachian State has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-21-17 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 214 | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (503) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). Chicago (10-20) has been on fire since getting power forward Nikolo Mirotic back on the court after missing the start of the season due to injuries sustained when he got into a fight with teammate Bobby Portis. The Bulls are undefeated since Mirotic returned to the lineup — and they have won seven straight games after their 112-94 win over Orlando last night as a 5.5-point favorite. Chicago is scoring 111.0 PPG over their last five games while making 47.7% of their shots as they clearly are buoyed with Mirotic’s presence down low. For the season, the Bulls are scoring 99.3 PPG on a 43.5% shooting percentage so Mirotic’s impact has been impressive. The Magic shot just 39.3% from the field against Chicago which was the Bulls’ best defensive effort in their last eighteen games — so they are likely to come back to Earth tonight when facing LeBron James and company at least on the defensive end of the court. As it is, Chicago has palyed 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulls have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing without rest and none of their players logged in more than 29 minutes last night in their easy victory. Chicago goes on the road for this contest where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. The Bulls have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (329) and the Oakland Raiders (330). Dallas (7-6) looks to build off their 30-10 win in New York against the Giants last week. The Cowboys have found their offense again as they dialed up 454 yards of offense behind a rushing attack that generated 122 yards of offense. Getting Tyron Smith healthy again at left tackle has made a big difference for this team as they have rushed the ball 73 times over their last two games for 304 rushing yards. Rushing the football tonight will keep the clock moving and help our Under tonight. As it is, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after they gained at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys stay on the road where they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total. Additionally, Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 9 games in the month of December, Dallas has played 8 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (303) and the Detroit Lions (304). Detroit (7-6) enters this game coming off their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay last week in a pick ‘em game. QB Matthew Stafford was outstanding in that contest as he completed 36 of 44 passes for 381 yards — but the Lions have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But despite that nice offensive effort, Detroit is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games. One of the concerns for the Lions is their inability to run the football as they rank last in the league by averaging only 76.3 rushing YPG. Over their last four games, Detroit has not rushed for more than 78 yards — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in four straight games. On the other side of the football, the Lions allowed 267 passing yards to the Bucs in that victory — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics OVER 198 | Top | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (811) and the Boston Celtics (812). Boston (24-6) has won seven of their last nine games with their 124-118 win over Denver on Wednesday. The Celtics have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Over is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. Now this team stays at home where they are averaging 106.5 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Boston has also played 19 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And the Over is 25-10-1 in the Celtics’ last 36 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team is likely to get Al Horford back on the court as he is listed as probable with his knee injury. That helps them on offense — and the fact that Marcus Morris will still be out with his knee issue takes away one of their better post defenders. Boston has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the number set in the 190 to 199.5 point range. And in their last 5 games against Western Conference opponents, the game has finished Over the Total 4 times. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts UNDER 40.5 | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 41 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Indianapolis Colts (302). Denver (4-9) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Sunday with their 23-0 shutout win over the Jets as a 1-point home underdog. The Broncos held the Jets to just 100 yards of offense. Denver has been a disaster on offense as they have not been able to develop a quarterback between Trevor Siemian, Payton Lynch and Brock Osweiler — but the Broncos defense remains outstanding. Despite little help on offense in staying off the field, the Denver defense remains number one in the league by holding their opponents to just 280.5 total YPG — and they rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense (191.1 passing YPG) and 4th in the league in rushing defense (89.5 rushing YPG). The Broncos held the Jets to just 41 passing yards last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Denver has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Denver has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 28 games as the favorite, the Broncos have played 19 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (133) and the Miami Dolphins (134). New England (10-2) enters this game coming off their 23-3 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The Patriots have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New England generated 435 yards of offense in that contest with the Bills — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The team will be without tight end Rob Gronkowski in this game which takes away Tom Brady’s security blanket. Brady’s numbers are markedly better with Gronkowski on the field. In his career, Brady completes 66% of his passes while averaging a robust 8.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt with a 5.29:1 touchdown to interception ration and a QB Rating of 79. But in games without Gronkowski, Brady sees those numbers drop to a 62% completion percentage with a 7.0 YPA mark and a 2.95:1 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 63. Furthermore, South Beach has not been Brady’s favorite place to play as the Patriots are scoring just 23.8 PPG in his fifteen starts in Miami while Brady has gotten sacked 32 times while throwing 13 interceptions. New England has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, New England has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-08-17 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 209.5 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (509) and the New Orleans Pelicans (510). New Orleans (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 123-114 win over Denver on Wednesday. The Pelicans have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. The team has been without Anthony Davis for their last three games as he is dealing with a groin injury. The Pelicans hoped he could play tonight but he has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest. His absence probably hurts New Orleans more on defense. Over their last five games with three without Davis, the Pelicans are allowing 117.8 PPG while seeing their opponents shoot 49.1% from the field as compared to the 110.2 PPG they are allowing this season along with an opponents’ field goal goal percentage of 46.2%. But New Orleans is still getting plenty of offensive production from DeMarcus Cousins, Jru Holiday and company. Over their last five games, the Pelicans are scoring 114.2 PPG while shooting 50% from the field which are both well above their 109.4 PPG and 48.3% shooting percentage for the season. Moving forward, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And while this will be their third straight game at home in the Big Easy, the Pelicans have played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 6 games on their home court Over the Total. And in their last 5 games against fellow Western Conference opponents, the Pelicans have played all 5 games Over the Total. |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (379) and the Cincinnati Bengals (380). Cincinnati (5-6) exploded for 30 points last week with their 30-16 victory over the winless Bengals as a 7.5-point favorite. The Bengals generated 405 yards of offense which was far above their league-bottom 274.3 total YPG average this season. Cincinnati is scoring only 18.1 PPG which is 25th in the NFL. One of the league’s worst offensive lines is the biggest culprit for these problems on offense and helps to explain why they are 26th in the NFL with the pass (198.6 passing YPG) and last in the league with the run (75.6 rushing YPG). The Bengals have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight up victory. The Cincinnati defense has been solid this season — despite being on the field too much given their anemic offense. The Bengals are 10th in the NFL by allowing just 19.5 PPG. Cincy did give up 361 yards last week — but they have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Bengals have played 12 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 46 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (377) and the Seattle Seahawks (378). Philadelphia (10-1) has won nine straight games with their 31-3 win over Chicago last week. The Eagles offense is clicking on all cylinders right now — they generated 420 yards of offense against an underrated Bears defense. Philadelphia has then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and this includes playing four of their last five road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total in the month of December. And in their last 11 games played on field turf, Philadelphia has played 9 of these games Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with the Over. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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12-02-17 | Akron v. Toledo UNDER 60 | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (319) and the Toledo Rockets (320). Akron (7-5) will be playing the Mid-American Championship Game as a significant underdog considering that they were blown out by the Rockets back on October 21st by a 48-21 score in a game that they managed only 333 yards of offense. Since that game, the Zips have won three of their last four games due in large measure to improved play on the defensive side of the football. They clinched the MAC East Title in their last game back on November 21st with their 24-14 in over Kent State as a 14.5-point favorite led by a defense that held the Golden Flashes to just 246 total yards. Over their last three games, Akron is allowing only 353.7 total YPG which is 67.8 YPG below their season average. The Zips have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Akron has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Zips have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The offense is an issue with redshirt freshman Kato Nelson taking over for senior Thomas Woodson who was suspended a few weeks ago for violating team rules but will be available to play in this game. Nelson completed only 6 of 20 passes for 69 yards against Kent State last week. Over their last three weeks, Akron has averaged just 302.3 total YPG. Furthermore, this game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit as a neutral site — and the Zips score only 16.7 PPG while averaging 284.7 total YPG when away from home. |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 47 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Dallas (5-6) has fallen on hard times after Ezekiel Elliott began serving his six-game suspension as they ave lost three straight games after their 28-6 loss to the Chargers last Thursday on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys’ offense has been a complete disaster as they have scored only a combined 22 points while failing to reach double-digits in all three of those games. Given that, it might be very tempting to take the Under — but this is a good situation to take the contrarian play with the Over. I do expect the Dallas’ offense behind QB Dak Prescott to be much better with a full week of practice under their belts. Remember, the Elliott injury came at the very worst time in terms of the schedule with the Cowboys playing three games over an twelve day period. They simply did not have much time to address the problems with the offense after that Falcons game with the Giants coming to town just four days later. Furthermore, left tackle Tyron Smith has had a full week to getting healthier after the Dallas offense spent the entire first-half in their game last Thursday avoiding running the ball to his side. But even if the Cowboys’ offense remains limited without Elliott, the defense presents another set of problems for this team. The Dallas defense has surrendered 92 combined points over their last three games. At home this season, the Cowboys are allowing 25.8 PPG along with 368.0 total YPG. Additionally, Dallas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and linebacker Sean Lee has been declared out for this game once again this week. |
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11-29-17 | Liverpool v. Stoke City OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 0 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total (of 3.0) in the match between Stoke City (35568) and Liverpool (35567). Liverpool (6-5-2) returns to the pitch looking to get back into the Top Four of the English Premier League table after falling to 6th place on Saturday with their 1-1 draw with Chelsea. That was the second straight match where the Reds surrendered a lead after blowing a 3-0 lead last Tuesday in a midweek Champions League match with Sevilla that ended in a 3-3 draw. Defense was an issue for this team last year that lacks depth in their back-line and too often plays sloppy in manager Jurgen Clop’s high-pressing system. Liverpool has allowed 16 goals in their six matches on the road in EPL action this season. But the Pool Boys are a powerful on offense as they are 3rd in the EPL with 25 goals for the year. Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino did not play in that match against Chelsea as they were given the day off after that Champions League match. Both players should be back on the pitch this afternoon which will boost their offensive attack. |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 39 | Top | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (275) and the Baltimore Ravens (276). Baltimore (5-5) pitched their third shutout of the season — and second in their last three games — with their 23-0 win at Green Bay last Sunday. The strong Ravens’ defense has facilitated the Total being set at a low number below 40 (as of this writing) — so lets attack that Over. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, the Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. And while this Baltimore offense looks anemic with their 21.3 PPG scoring mark which is 18th in the league, they are getting better on that side of the ball as they get healthier after suffering from a barrage of injuries. In their last three games, the Ravens are scoring 27.7 PPG while still not getting very aggressive with their play-calling with their two of those games being blowout shutouts. Their close game in their last three games was a 23-20 loss at Tennessee in a game where Joe Flacco aired the football out 53 times for 268 passing yards. Those are Over numbers. Moving forward, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. |
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11-25-17 | Texas A&M v. LSU UNDER 51 | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (199) and the LSU Tigers (200). Texas A&M (7-4) will be playing one for their head coach Kevin Sumlin who has been reported by the Houston Chronicle earlier this week that he will be relieved of his coaching duties win or loss after this game. Expect the Aggies to play hard — particularly on defense — in this contest. Texas A&M comes off a 31-24 victory at Ole Miss last week as a 2.5-point favorite. The Aggies have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Texas A&M has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a close victory by 7 points or less against a conference rival. Now the Aggies stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total — and this includes playing 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 45.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (107) and the Detroit Lions (108). Minnesota (8-2) stymied the high-powered Rams offense on Sunday in their 24-7 victory where they held that Sean McVay offense to just 254 total yards. The Vikings should continue to flex their muscles on defense as they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Minnesota did generate 451 yards against the Rams’ defense — but the Under is 17-7-1 in their last 25 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Vikings go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Minnesota has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 23 games against fellow NFC North opponents, the Vikings have played 18 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games played on a short week on a Thursday Under the Total. |
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11-22-17 | Sharks v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (73) and the Arizona Coyotes (74). San Jose (10-8-0) looks to snap their three-game losing streak with their 3-2 loss to Anaheim on Monday. The Sharks have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Scoring has been an issue for this team — as epitomized by the play of defenseman Brett Burns who has yet to score this season while registering a mere 7 points in nineteen games after being one of the best offensive players on the blue-line in the entire NHL. San Jose is getting outstanding play from their goalie Martin Jones when on the road this year where he owns an outstanding 1.01 Goals-Against-Average along with a .967 save percentage in four starts. The Sharks have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. San Jose has also seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 30-11-18 in the Sharks’ last 59 games against fellow Pacific Division opponents. |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 37-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Philadelphia (8-1) returns from their bye week off coming off a 51-23 win over the Broncos back on November 5th. The Eagles have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Philadelphia generated 419 yards in that victory — and they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after averaging at least 350 yards in their last game. One of the reasons that is making the Eagles so tough this season is their Red Zone offense as they are tops in the league in that category with QB Carson Wentz throwing 15 passing TDs in the Red Zone with zero interceptions. This efficiency has helped them score 31.4 PPG which is second best in the NFL so far this season. The Philly defense has also been outstanding as they held the Broncos to just 226 yards of offense. But the Over is then 16-6-2 in the Eagles’ last 24 games after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. Now this team goes on the road where they have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total — and this includes playing four of their last five road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 12 games against fellow NFC East rivals, the Eagles have played 10 of these games Over the Total. |
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11-16-17 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228 | Top | 142-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504). Houston (11-4) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 1219-113 loss to Toronto despite being a 6.5-point favorite in that game. Chris Paul may take the court again for the Rockets which does not shape much into the rationale for this play (outside of helping this Houston team ensure they always have a potent point guard on the court since the original plan was to have one of these two stars on the court at all times this season). The Rockets shot just 41.8% from the field against the Raptors which was their worst shooting effort in their last seven games. Expect Houston to get back to their torrid shooting pace as they are scoring 119.2 PPG over their last five games while nailing 48% of their shots even with their poor performance on Tuesday during that span. But the Rockets’ style of play does allow the opposition to find easy shots on their own. Over their last five games, Houston is allowing 108.6 PPG while seeing these opponents make 48.5% of their shots. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Rockets have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, Houston has played a decisive 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. And in their last 24 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court, the Rockets have played 17 of these games Over the Total. |
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11-13-17 | Grizzlies v. Bucks UNDER 200 | Top | 103-110 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (705) and the Milwaukee Bucks (706). Memphis (7-5) has lost four of their last six games with their 111-96 loss at Houston on Saturday. The Grizzlies have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Despite moving on from Zach Randolph and defensive wizard Tony Allen in the offseason who were the face of their “Grit-n-Grind” identity, this Memphis team still is playing great defense. Opposing teams are shooting just 42.6% from the field this season. Now this team stays on the road for their fifth straight contest — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, the Under is 11-5-1 in the Grizzlies last 17 games when playing on the road. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. |
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11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (273) and the Denver Broncos (274). Denver (3-5) embarrassed themselves last week by losing in Philadelphia to the Eagles by a 51-23 score as a 7-point underdog. After surrendering over 50 points, expect this proud “No Fly Zone” Broncos’ defense to step up in this opportunity to make a statement against Tom Brayed and this Patriots’ offense. Denver has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up defeat — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Broncos surrendered 197 rushing yards in that game to the Eagles — but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Denver has bigger issues on offense with Brock Osweiler under center for an ineffective Trevor Siemian. The Broncos managed only 226 yards of offense last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Additionally, Denver has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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11-09-17 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (117) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (118). North Carolina (1-8) has lost six straight games in a disaster of a season with their 24-19 loss to Miami (FL) two Saturdays ago as a 21-point underdog. Larry Fedora’s team is a M*A*S*H unit this season with injuries on the offensive line particularly hurting this team from week-to-week. The Tar Heels rank 109th in the FBS by scoring 21.3 PPG while ranking 108th in the FBS any averaging 344.2 total YPG. On the road, North Carolina sees their yardage numbers drop to 310.0 total YPG. And over their last three games, the Tar Heels are scoring just 13.3 PPG while averaging 285.7 total YPG. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Tar Heels have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while UNC covered the three-touchdown spread against the Hurricanes, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The defense does seem to be playing better after limiting the Miami (FL) rushing attack to just 59 yards in that game. Over their last three games, they are holding their opponents to just 17.4 PPG while allowing more than 46 YPG below their season average. The Tar Heels have played 12 of the last 14 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. North Carolina has also played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Moving forward, the Tar Heels have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 8 games played on a Thursday night, North Carolina has played all 8 games Under the Total. |
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11-04-17 | Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt OVER 53.5 | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (377) and the Vanderbilt Commodores (378). Vanderbilt (3-5) has lost five straight games with their 34-27 loss at South Carolina last Saturday. The Commodores have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Now Vanderbilt returns home where they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Gone are the salad days of September when this team went into their meeting with Alabama with the best statistical defense in the nation. Over their last three games, the Commodores have given up 45.3 PPG along with 512.7 total YPG. Vandy allowed 212 rushing yards to the Gamecocks last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. The Commodores’ offense has kicked into another gear with junior QB Kyle Shurmur completing 27 of 49 passes for 333 yards and 3 TDs against South Carolina. This team is scoring 25.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging 364.3 total YPG which is well above their 314.9 total YPG seasonal average. |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (307) and the New York Jets (308). New York (3-5) looks to snap a three-game losing streak tonight after they lost by a 25-20 score at home versus Atlanta on Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. The Jets managed only 43 rushing yards in that game — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. New York was outrushed by 97 yards in that contest — and they have then played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after being out rushed by at least 75 yards. And while the Falcons outgained them by 107 net yards, the Jets have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards. New York allowed 386 yards to Atlanta in that game — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Jets do play better defense at home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.2 PPG along with 324.2 total YPG which is 5 points fewer along with -37.2 net YPG lower than their seasonal averages. This shapes up to be low scoring game with both teams on a short week and when considering that New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (271) and the Detroit Lions (272). Detroit (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 52-38 loss in New Orleans two weeks ago. The Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Detroit has also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a game where they surrendered at least 30 points. The Lions did pass for 312 yards in that loss — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Detroit is struggling to getting a credible ground game going as they have not rushed for more than 97 yards in four straight games. The Lions have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 4 straight games Under the Total after their bye week. With Golden Tate still not 100%, this Lions defense might struggle to reach the 298.0 total YPG they are averaging this season which is just 26th in the NFL. |
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10-29-17 | Texans v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (267) and the Seattle Seahawks (268). Houston (3-3) has quickly transformed from a defensive-oriented low-scoring team to a high-flying offensive juggernaut that has to outscore their opponents. Season-ending injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus on defense along with the emergence of rookie QB Deshaun Watson has been the reasons for this transformation for Bill O’Brien’s team. Over his last three games coinciding with the return of Will Fuller at wide receiver, Watson has throw 12 TD passes with just two interceptions for a Passer Rating of 117. During that span, Watson is being sacked only once in ever 20 pass attempts — and he received a big boost this week when Houston’s star left tackle Duane Brown ended his holdout. Brown should be on the field this afternoon blocking for Watson and this rushing attack that is 3rd in the NFL by averaging 137.7 rushing YPG. The Texans come off their bye week after their 33-17 win over the Browns two weeks ago as a 7.5-point favorite. Houston has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Texans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game, Houston has played 4 of these games Over the Total. Moving forward, the Texans have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 21 games in the month of October, Houston has played 16 of these games Over the Total. |
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10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns UNDER 38 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (251) and the Cleveland Browns (252). Cleveland (0-7) has already had a tumultuous trip to London this week when they were awoken by a late night alarm at their hotel. The Browns remained winless this season with their 12-9 loss in overtime to Tennessee last Sunday. Cleveland has then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Cleveland defense is good — they rank 9th in the league by allowing only 304.7 total YPG. But the offense is a mess as they rank 31st in the NFL by scoring 14.7 PPG. Rookie QB Deshone Kizer is clearly not ready for the league as he is struggling mightily with NFL defenses. His job just became much worse as well with the season ending injury to the rock on the Cleveland offensive line in Joe Thomas at left tackle. With Thomas out, expect the Browns to run the ball even more which will burn time off the clock. Cleveland has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing five or six of their last seven games Under the Total. |
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10-28-17 | Buffalo University v. Akron UNDER 50 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (123) and the Akron Zips (124). Buffalo (3-5) will be starting a true freshman at QB in Kyle Vantrease with both Drew Anderson and Tyree Jackson declared out for this game. Vantrease completed just 17 of 41 passes last week for 202 yards in the Bulls’ 24-14 loss at Miami (OH) as a 3-point underdog. Buffalo is playing all of their opponents tough with three of their losses by 4 points or less and all five of their defeats being within 10 points — so expect a conservative game plan in this contest with a freshman QB playing in a hostile environment. As it is, the Bulls have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points, the Bulls have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Moving forward, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October. |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Los Angeles (112-60) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 7-6 win in extra innings in what became a game for the ages in World Series history. The Dodgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after an off day. Now they go on the road where the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games away from home. They give the ball to Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander was been more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 2.44 ERA with a .206 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 5.25 ERA along with a .246 opponent’s batting average at home with Texas and then the Dodgers after being traded to LA. The right-hander has been outstanding in this postseason where he has a 2–0 record with a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in two starts. Darvish’s teams have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price-range. He faces an Astros team that is hitting just .201 over their last seven games with a .280 On-Base Percentage and .638 OPS over that span. Houston has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 37.5 | Top | 0-40 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (101) and the Baltimore Ravens (102). With this Total set in the 37.5 range as of this writing, oddsmakers seem to be trying coax Over bets. Lets not take the bait. After a week where three teams were shutout and another six teams scored 10 points or less in regulation time, there is a good chance that at least one of these teams with limited offenses will fail to score more than 10 points when playing on a short week. Miami (4-2) enters this game coming off their 31-28 win over the NY Jets last week as a 3-point favorite. The Dolphins did generate 357 yards in that game in their best statistical effort on offense all season — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami rushed for just 53 yards in that game — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. QB Jay Cutler has been declared out for this game with his rib injury — and while Matt Moore is a capable backup, some of the talk defending him that approaches Dan Marino territory is a bit overblown. Now this team goes on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total. Miami has also played 3 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. The Dolphins do have a top-ten defense in yards allowed while ranking 7th in the NFL by allowing 18.7 PPG. The Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games played on a Thursday night. And in their last 26 games in the month of October, the Under is 17-8-1. |
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10-22-17 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | Top | 14-29 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (456). Pittsburgh (4-2) returns home this week after their triumphant 19-13 win at Kansas City last week as a 3.5-point underdog. The Steelers defense flexed their muscles by holding the explosive Chiefs offense to just 251 yards of offense in that contest. Pittsburgh was able to control the football for 36L39 of that game due to the outstanding performance of running back LeVeon Bell who ran the ball 32 times for 179 yards. Expect the Steelers to commit to running the football as well in this divisional rivalry. Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Steelers did generate 439 yards of offense in that victory — but they have then seen the Under go 13-2-1 in their last 16 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 31 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Under is 21-8-1. |
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10-21-17 | Boston College v. Virginia UNDER 47 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (361) and the Virginia Cavaliers (362). Boston College (3-4) looks to build off their 45-42 upset win at Louisville last week as a 20-point underdog. The offensive explosion in that game from this Eagles team that typically relies on stout defense with points hard to come by on offense was a surprise. Expect things to get back to the lower-scoring ways under fifth-year head coach Steve Addazio. Boston College has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Eagles have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Additionally, while BC allowed 625 yards of offense in that game, the Under is then 43-19-1 in their last 63 games after a game where they allowed at least 450 yards in their last game contest. Now the Eagles stay on the road where the Under is a decisive 36-14-1. |
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10-20-17 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary UNDER 51.5 | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saskatchewan Roughriders (651) and the Calgary Stampeders (652). Calgary (13-1-1) has won eleven straight games with their 28-25 win at Hamilton last Friday as a 9.5-point favorite. The Stampeders have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a victory on the road where they failed to cover the point spread. Calgary has also played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after win by 3 points or less — and this includes playing sixteen of their last twenty-one games Under the Total with a win on the road by a field goal or less. And in their last 8 games after a point spread loss, the Stamps have played 6 of these games Under the Total. This Calgary team needs a win to clinch the West Division and secure home field up until the Grey Cup. They lead the CFL by holding opponents to just 326.0 total YPG. Moving forward, the Stampeders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of October. Calgary has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against West Division foes, the Stampeders have played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Justin Verlander. Houston (106-65) returns home having lost all three games in Yankee Stadium after their 5-0 loss on Wednesday. The Astros have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Houston has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 15-5-1 in the Astros’ last 21 home ames against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Verlander tonight who has been outstanding for them since being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. In his five regular season starts wearing an Astros uniform, Verlander had a 5-0 record with a 1.06 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP. In his two regular season starts in Houston, Verlander had a 0.64 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 0.93 WHIP. The right-hander has been outstanding in the postseason with a 3-0 record along with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings of work. In his 116 innings in his career in the playoffs, Verlander has a 10-5 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Verlander comes off a complete game where he allowed only one earned run against the Yankees in Game Two of this series — and not only am I not worried about the carry over from the pitch count from that effort with him pitching on his normal four days of rest but his teams have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their 7 games Under the Total with Verlander on the mound for them. He faces a Yankees lineup that is hitting only .227 with a .301 On-Base Percentage and .688 OPS over their last seven games. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in New York’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. |
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10-18-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:01 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (967) and the Chicago Cubs (968) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta. Chicago (95-75) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after their 6-1 loss to the Dodgers last night. The Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Chicago has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, not only have the Cubs played 4 straight home games Under the Total but they have also played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total at home when a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. I was a little surprised to the see the Total listed at 9.5 (as of this writing) when it opened — but Chicago has played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Arrieta who is 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.90 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in ten starts. Arrieta has been good in the playoffs throughout his career given his 3.33 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP in 46 innings of work. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 games with Arrieta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (275) and the Tennessee Titans (276). Indianapolis (2-3) has won two of their last three games with their 26-23 win in overtime over San Francisco last week. The Colts have found an answer at QB during the continued absence of Andrew Luck with Jacoby Brissett who was always an intriguing prospect when initially drafted in the 3rd round by the Patriots after a good career at NC State. Brissett completed 22 of 34 passes for 314 yards with a TD while adding another 14 yards with a TD on the ground. By giving the Colts a credible passing attack, the running game has thrived as well behind age-less wonder Frank Gore and Marlon Mack. Indy ran the ball 35 times for 159 yards in their win over the 49ers — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. But defense has been a problem for this team. Brain Hoyer passed for 336 yards against them — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last game. The Colts are allowing 408 YPG over their last three games — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Moving forward, Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on grass. The Colts have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Indianapolis has played 25 of their last 34 games on the road — and they have 19 of their last 25 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. And in their last 7 games played in the month of October, Indy has played 6 of these games Over the Total. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
PLEASE NOTE: Our play is on the Under. I committed a data entry error when loading this play and there lacks a quick fix to this on my end of things. I apologize for the confusion while hoping it is my only mistake of the day. Thanks, Frank. At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Chicago Bears (476). Minnesota (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 14-7 loss at Detroit last Sunday. The Vikings have now played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against NFC North opponents. Minnesota has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the month of October. And in their last 18 games after failing to score more than 14 points, the Vikings have played 13 of these games Under the Total. The teams looks to get QB Sam Bradford back under center tonight but he returns with his phenom running back Dalvin Cook out the season with a torn ACL. Losing Cook will slow down this offense. Moving forward, Minnesota has seen the Under go 15-6-1 in their last 22 games on the road — and this includes playing 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Chicago (1-3) looks to bounce-back from a 35-14 loss in Green Bay two Thursdays ago as a 7.5-point underdog. The Bears have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have played all 4 games Under the Total. With head coach John Fox tapping rookie Mitch Trubisky to make his first NFL start tonight, expect the team to game plan to put him in a position to succeed by running the ball plenty and shortening the length of this game — and that helps our Under play. Moving forward, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of October. Lastly, the Bears have played a decisive 48 of their last 76 games at home Under the Total as an underdog getting 7 points or less. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Chicago Bears (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
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10-08-17 | Indians v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (953) and the New York Yankees (954) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka. New York (92-73) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after falling behind by a 2-0 margin in this series on Friday with their 9-8 loss to the Indians. The Yankees have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss. New York has also valued 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Now New York returns home to Yankee Stadium where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Yanks have also played 7 of their last 9 games in the playoffs at home Under the Total. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. But the right-hander has been much better at home where he owns a 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts as compared to his 6.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .292 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 home games with Tanaka on the hill. He should pitch well against this Cleveland team that is hitting just .220 over their last seven games with a mediocre .324 On-Base Percentage and a .703 OPS over that span. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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10-04-17 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 55 | Top | 43-25 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas State Red Wolves (301) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (302). Georgia Southern (0-3) is still looking for the first win of the season after their 52-17 loss at Indiana back on September 23rd. The play of the Eagles defense was not quite as bad as the scoreboard reflected with two of the Hoosiers’ touchdowns resulting from a 70-yard punt return as well as a 22-yard fumble recovery. Overall, Georgia Southern allowed 468 yards in that game — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Eagles have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Now Georgia Southern begins conference play with a bit of a blank slate. This team needs to get their “Flexbone” offense going again after this team got away from that foundation last season in the first year under head coach Tyson Summers. The team averaged 22 passing attempts last season which was double the amount in the previous season under Willie Fritz. The Eagles did rush for 242 yards against Indiana — and they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Keeping the potent Arkansas State offense off the field has to be a top priority for this team tonight. Georgia Southern has played 7 of their last 9 games in the Sun Belt Under the Total. And in their last 6 games in the month of October, the Eagles have played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (931) and the New York Yankees (932) listing both starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Luis Severino. We have a strong technical situation here. New York (91-71) hosts this AL Wildcard game tonight as a heavy money-line favorite — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a money-line favorite priced at least at -200. The Yankees enter this game having allowing 2 runs, 1 run and zero runs in their last three games. But New York has then played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after allowing three runs or less in their last two contests — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after allowing no more than three runs in three straight games. And in their last 10 games after an off day, the Yankees have played 7 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Severino who is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been less effective at home where he owns a 3.71 ERA in sixteen starts as compared to his 2.24 ERA in fifteen starts on the road. New York has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Severino on the mound — and that includes playing four straight Overs at home with Severino facing a team with a winning record. Furthermore, while Severino comes off a strong outing where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings against the Rays — and not only have the Yankees played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Severino following up a Quality Start but they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Severino following up a start where he allowed only one earned run. |
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09-29-17 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (925) and the Minnesota Twins (926) while listing both starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Kyle Gibson. Detroit (63-96) snapped their nine-game losing streak last night with their 4-1 win in Kansas City. The Tigers have then played 12 of their last 15 Over the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, not only has Detroit played 34 of their last 46 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games but they have played 26 of their last 35 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five contests. This team has not scored more than four runs in eight straight games — but they have then played 19 of their last 25 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. And while the Tigers are looking to avenge getting swept at home in a four-game series against this Minnesota team, they have then played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge after being swept in at least a three-game series against their opponent. Additionally, Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series Over the Total. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 3-0-1. They give the ball to Boyd who is 6-10 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.54 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been less effective on the road where he owns a 5.86 ERA, 1.870 WHIP and .328 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 4.52 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Tigers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Boyd on the hill. He faces a red-hot Minnesota offense that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last three games with a .296 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage and .815 OPS. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Twins’ last 5 games against starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL v. Duke UNDER 56 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (105) and the Duke Blue Devils (106). Duke (4-0) returns home still undefeated after they pulled the upset last Saturday with their 27-17 win at North Carolina as a 1.5-point underdog. The Blue Devils have then played 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Duke has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Blue Devils relied on their defense to win that game against the Tar Heels as it was a 61-yard interception returned for a touchdown at the 4:01 mark that provided their last touchdown in that contest. Head coach David Cutliffe appears to have one of his best defensives in his ten years at Duke. 66% of the tackles from last year returned to a unit that is allowing only 15.3 PPG (17th in the FBS) while ranking 11th in the nation in total defense (261.5 total YPG). Moving forward, Duke returns home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total. And in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Blue Devils have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, Duke has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of September. |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). In a game between two divisional rivals both who are banged-up and coming off a game on Sunday that required overtime — and now both playing on a short week — expect this contest to a grind where both opposing coaches look to rise to the challenge by winning the battle at the line of scrimmage in what should result in a lower scoring game. Chicago (1-2) travels to Lambeau Field with confidence after their 23-17 upset win over the Steelers in overtime as a 7-point underdog. The Bears have an underrated defense that limited the potent Pittsburgh offense to just 282 yards of offense. Chicago has now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of September. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Chicago has played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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09-28-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:15 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (957) and the St. Louis Cardinals (958) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn. Chicago (89-69) won the third game of this series yesterday with their 5-2 victory yesterday. The Cubs have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 28 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .248 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts at home. The Cubs have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Hendricks on the mound. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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09-27-17 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Mark Leiter. Philadelphia (63-95) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 victory over the Nationals last night. The Phillies have now seen the Under go 6-2-3 in their last 11 games at home. That was just the second time in their last six games where they managed to score four runs — and they have then played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where they scored no more than four runs. Additionally, the Under is 5-0-2 in Philly’s last 7 games Under the Total against NL East opponents. They give the ball to Leiter who is 3-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for immediate improvement with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.10 or 4.12 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his ugly 7.35 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and .281 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 home games with Leiter on the hill. He should fare well against this Washington team that is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .192 batting average, .259 On-Base Percentage and .626 OPS over that span. Furthermore, the Under is 21-7-3 in the Nationals’ last 31 games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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09-26-17 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Matt Moore and Robbie Ray. San Francisco (62-95) exploded for nine runs last night in their 9-2 victory over the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this National League West series. The Giants have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. San Francisco has also played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 48 games at night on the road, the Giants have played 30 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Moore who is 6-14 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been particularly ineffective on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.51 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .306 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts (sixteen games) on the road as compared to his 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts (seventeen games) at home. San Francisco has seen the Over go 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games with Moore facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with an OPS of .802 over that span. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 47 | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (489) and the Arizona Cardinals (490). Dallas (1-1) was embarrassed last week on the road in Denver where they were spanked by a 42-17 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. The Cowboys surrendered 380 yards in that contest while seeing their defense be on the field for 33:50 minutes in that game. Ezekiel Elliott rushed the ball only nine times for 8 yards. Overall, Dallas rushed the ball only 14 times for 40 yards with Dak Prescott ending up as their leading rusher with 24 yards. The Cowboys have to get back to running the football behind the bruising offensive line in an attempt to control the clock and impose their will while keeping their defense off the field. Dallas will not be successful in the long run if Prescott attempts 50 passes like he did against the Broncos. As it is, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Dallas has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 14 games on the road, Dallas has played 11 of these games Under the Total. |
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09-25-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Drew Pomeranz. Boston (91-64) begins this series coming off a 5-4 win at Cincinnati yesterday afternoon. The Under is then 21-8-2 in the Red Sox’s last 31 games after a victory. Boston has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 51 games at home, the Under is 33-16-2 for the Red Sox — and this includes playing twenty-one of their last thirty home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Pomeranz who is 16-5 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .241 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts at home as compared to his 3.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in fifteen starts on the road. The Red Sox have played 4 of their las 5 games Under the Total with Pomeranz pitching on grass. He should fare well again this Blue Jays team that is hitting only .201 over their last seven games with a .274 On-Base Percentage and .636 OPS. The Under is a decisive 46-19-5 in Toronto’s last 70 games against left-handed starting pitchers. And in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Under is 18-8-1. |
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09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (487) and the Washington Redskins (488). Oakland (2-0) looked very good for the second straight week with their dominant 45-20 win over the Jets last Sunday as a 14-point favorite. The Raiders have then played 19 of their last 25 gams Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Over is also 31-13-2 in Oakland’s last 46 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns, the Raiders have played 5 of these games Over the Total. But while the Raiders defense has impressed by only allowing 292 yards last week to the Jets, but concerns remain when going deeper inside the numbers as they are allowing opponents to convert on 50% of their 3rd down plays. Moving forward, Oakland has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the month of September. |
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09-24-17 | Angels v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (971) and the Houston Astros (972) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Lance McCullers. Houston (95-59) has won eight of their last nine games with their 6-2 victory in the second game of this series. The Astros have now played 5 straight games Under the Total after a victory. Houston has also seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games at home — and that includes playing 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to McCullers making his first start since the beginning of the month after dealing with arm fatigue. He was fine in his last bullpen session and will be motivated to prove himself in this audition to be included in the team’s playoff rotation. For the season, McCullers has a 7-3 record along with a 3.97 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.39 and 3.15 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 4.78 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Astros have played 17 of their last 22 home games Under the Total with McCullers on the mound. He should fare well against this LA team that has played 4 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. This is a slumping Angels’ team playing out the string. Over their last seven games, this team is scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .186 batting average along with a .272 On-Base Percentage and .576 OPS. |
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09-23-17 | UMass v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -117 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (327)/Tennessee Volunteers (328) Over the Total. Tennessee (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 26-20 loss to Florida that ended on a Hail Mary pass from Florida with the game-tied that featured such terrible defense that it will likely be the signature visual that gets head coach Butch Jones relieved of his duties in early December. But I do expect the Volunteers to beat up on the Minutemen this afternoon. Tennessee did cover the ending +6.5-point spread in that game — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Vols have also played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total in the month of September. Additionally, not only has Tennessee played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home but they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total agains teams with a losing record on the road. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 40 | Top | 41-39 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). In this game between two rebuilding teams in the NFC West, look for both teams to try to win the battle at the line of scrimmage with both teams playing on a short week under the leadership of first-year head coaches trying to re-establish the identity of their respective franchises. Expect both teams to stay committed to running the football to keep their defenses off the field — which also serves to limit the number of offensive plays in this game. Los Angeles (1-1) looks to rebound from a 27-20 loss to Washington on Sunday as a 3-point favorite. The Rams allowed the Skins to rush for 229 yards in that game on 33 carries in a strategy that the 49ers will likely try to replicate behind Carlos Hyde — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West opponents. Furthermore, the Under is 35-15-1 in Los Angeles’ last 51 games on the road — and that includes playing 9 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home. |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 41 | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (261) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (262). Tennessee (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an opening week 29-16 upset loss to the Raiders last Sunday despite being a 2.5-point favorite. The Over is then 10-4-1 in the Titans’ last 15 gamers are a point spread loss. Tennessee did generate 350 yards of offense in that loss — and the Over is then 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 59 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (103) and the Boise State Broncos (104). Boise State (101) looks to bounce-back from a heartbreaking 47-44 overtime loss at Washington State last week in a game where they had a 31-7 lead with under 11 minutes to go before blowing that lead and eventually succumbing in overtime. This team has quarterback issues with the inconsistent junior QB Brett Rypien benched in their first game before suffering a head injury in the 1st quarter last week against the Huskies. Graduate transfer Montell Cozart finished that game out — but while this 12 of 20 passing for 161 yards with two touchdowns with an additional 72 rushing yards looks dynamic, he completed only 3 of 9 passes to close out the game for just 33 yards which helped Washington State eke that game out. Rypien’s status for this game is questionable which makes things even more difficult for the Broncos on a short week. Don’t be surprised if the former Kansas QB gets the start tonight. Boise State needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing 455 yards to the Cougars. The Broncos have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, Boise State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 14 games at home, the Broncos have played 11 of thee games Under the Total. |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 42 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:20 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). Denver (0-0) had the 4th best defense in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 316.1 total YPG. The Broncos defense was even better at home as they held their visitors to last year to only 300.6 total YPG. Denver has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total as the favorite. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the Broncos’ last 20 home games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Furthermore, Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 5 games played on grass, the Broncos have played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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09-11-17 | Huddersfield Town v. West Ham United UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between West Ham United (81832) and Huddersfield Town (81833). West Ham (0-0-3) remained winless back on August 26th with their 3-0 loss at Newcastle. The Hammers have yet to score a goal this season — and this was after last year’s campaign where they only scored 47 goals for the entire season. Defense was their calling card under manager Slaven Bilic whose tactics kept things afloat despite their difficulties in scoring goals. The team did make a major signing last month when they acquired Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez from Bayer Leverkusen in the German Professional League. Unfortunately for Bilic, the Mexican star will not have many of his key teammates in this match. Midfielder Marko Arnautovic is suspended for this match while midfielders Manuel Lanzini, Andrew Ayew and Edmilison Fernandes are all out with injuries. Forward Andy Carroll is also questionable for this afternoon’s match with a knock of his own leaving this side thin up front. West Ham does return home to play their first match this season — and they need a result. They managed only eight shots against Newcastle and they will likely lean heavily on their good depth in their backfield along with a strong keeper in Joe Hart who is on load with the club from Man City.
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09-10-17 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 46.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Dallas Cowboys (478). New York (0-0) may be a team where most of their attention goes to their offense with Eli Manning and Odell Beckham — and now they have added Brandon Marshall to that mix. But it is the defense that should be mentioned when first considering this Giants team. Last year, the Giants were 2nd in the NFL by holding opponents to just 17.8 PPG — and they were 10th in the NFL by allowing only 339.7 total YPG. Defensive coordinator is one of the best in the business — and his return to this franchise where he was the coordinator for their last Super Bowl run which earned him a head coaching stint with the Rams — has helped make this an elite defense once again. In particular, the Giants boast two of the best safeties in the league Landon Collins and Darian Thompson. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against NFC opponents. The Giants have also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on turf. Furthermore, New York has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when the number at 45.5 or higher. Additionally, the Giants have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 49 | Top | 42-27 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (451) and the New England Patriots (452). Kansas City (0-0) was just 20th in the NFL last season by averaging 343.0 total YPG. Yet this team was able to generate more points than that level of production would suggest as they ranked 13th in the league by scoring 24.3 PPG. But this is an offense under QB Alex Smith that was middling at best in both the pass where they averaged just 233.8 passing YPG (19th in the NFL) and only 109.2 rushing YPG (15th in the NFL). This is a team that seems to have taken a step back then this season with the decision to cut wide receiver Jeremy Maclin via voicemail and then running back Spencer Ware suffered a season-ending knee injury. The defense remains stout after finishing in the Top-Ten in points allowed for the fourth straight season by allowing just 19.4 PPG which was 7th best in the NFL. The Chiefs secondary is elite with strong safety Eric Berry and a true shutdown cornerback in Marcus Peters anchoring a great group that can play man-to-man and afford an extra defender in the box. This defensive group will also be buoyed by the return of linebackers Justin Houston and Derrick Johnson after they suffered season-ending injuries before the playoffs last season. Kansas City has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Chiefs have also played 12 of their last 18 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. And in head coach Andy Reid’s last 6 road games that he has coached as an underdog in the 7.5 to 10 point range, those games finished Under the Total 5 times. |
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08-31-17 | Eagles v. Jets UNDER 36 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (105) and the New York Jets (106). Philadelphia (2-1) looks to build off their 38-31 victory over the Dolphins last Thursday. Despite all those points, the Eagles defense played pretty well in holding the Dolphins to just 302 yards of offense. With likely backup QB Nick Foles still dealing with an injury, expect the uninspiring Mitch McGloin to handle the quarterbacking duties tonight with Carson Wentz not risking taking the field and getting injured. The starting offensive line for the Eagles will not be playing in this game either which will make things more difficult for the former Penn State QB. As it is, Philadelphia has played 5 straight preseason games under the leadership of head coach Doug Pederson Under the Total with the number in the 35.5-42 point range. The Eagles have also played 4 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3 point range. |
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08-30-17 | Giants v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Ty Blach and Travis Wood. San Diego (58-74) snapped their four-game losing streak last night with their 6-3 win over the Giants. The Padres have then seen the Over go 13-4-1 in their last 18 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 19-7-1 in San Diego’s last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Wood who is 3-4 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. Since being picked up by the Padres after being waived by the Royals, the left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 1.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .355 as opposed to his more mild 1.77 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average on the road. Wood’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when he is making the start. He faces a Giants team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. |
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08-26-17 | Rice v. Stanford UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-62 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (297) and the Stanford Cardinal (298). Stanford (0-0) should be loaded for bear once again on defense this season as they return eight starters from a 10-3 team that won their last six games including beating North Carolina (and future Chicago Bears’ Hall of Fame quarterback Mitch Trubisky?) by a 25-23 score in the Sun Bowl. The Cardinal held their opponents to just 20.0 PPG and only 368 YPG. Stanford was 10th in the FBS with the most 3-and-outs on defense last year. Redshirt junior Keller Chryst returns as the starting quarterback but he missed all of spring ball from the injury he sistine in the Sun Bowl. Expect head coach David Shaw to rely on his defense along with a physical ground game with this team struggling to effectively execute the forward pass. The Cardinal has played 7 of their last 9 games in the first two weeks of the season Under the Total. Stanford has also played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 56 point range. |
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08-26-17 | Leicester v. Manchester United OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 33 m | Show |
At 12:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Manchester United (84578) and Leicester City (84577). Manchester United (2-0-0) has been the toast of the new English Premier League season so far this year after winning their second straight game by a 4-0 score. This side looks dominant — particularly on offense after scoring eight goals so far this season. The $100 million acquisition of forward Romelu Lukaku looks to be just what the doctor ordered as he has given the team an active and fluid attacker that better fits the team as compared to their big pickup last year of Zlatan Ibrahimovic. But the key newcomer for this team is midfielder Nemanja Matic who played a key role for the champions Chelsea last season. Matic reunites with manager Jose Mouinho from his time in Chelsea. Not only does he offer the side a defensive-minded controlling midfielder but his presence on the pitch frees up Paul Pogba to become more of an attacker from the middle of the field. It is the chemistry between Pogba and Lukaku that makes the Red Devils very dangerous this season. Man United should score at least twice on their home field this afternoon. |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs v. Seahawks UNDER 44 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (257) and the Seattle Seahawks (258). Seattle (2-0) looks to build off their 20-13 win over the Vikings last Friday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Seahawks under head coach Pete Carroll have then played 10 of their last 14 preseason games Under the total after a points spread win — and Carroll’s teams have played 18 of their last 25 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread in win in the preseason in his three-team head-coaching tenure in the NFL. Seattle will be undermanned at running back in this contest with both the likely starter Thomas Rawls and impressive backup C.J. Prosise not playing tonight as they deal with injuries. That means the majority of the carries — at least with the starters in the first half — will be by Eddie Lacy but the former Packers’ running back has not impressed this preseason after managing just 30 yards on 10 carries. As it is, the biggest weakness for this Seahawks team on offense is their offensive line. Not only was this a liability last year, but the team suffered devastating news this month with the season-ending ACl injury to tackle George Fant. Seattle did average 6.06 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Minnesota defense — and the Seahawks have then played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a preseason game under Carroll where they averaged at least 6.0 YPP. Carroll’s teams have also played 7 of their last preseason games Under the Total in his coaching career where his team averaged at least 6.0 YPP in their last preseason game. |
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08-24-17 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the Cincinnati Reds (908) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Sal Romano. Cincinnati (53-74) has lost three straight games after their 9-3 loss to the Cubs . The Reds’ pitching is just getting clobbered right now as they have surrendered at least eight runs in four straight games. Cincinnati has then played 7 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least seven runs in three straight games. The Reds have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss. Furthermore, Cincy has played 8 of ther last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And this Reds team has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss by at least six runs. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 7 straight home games Over the Total at home. They give the ball to Romano who is 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.63 ERA along with a 1.74 WHIP and .296 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. He faces a red-hot Cubs team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .297 batting average with a .380 On-Base Percentage and .864 OPS during that span. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. |
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08-21-17 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Gerrit Cole. Los Angeles (87-35) suffered a rare loss yesterday in a 6-1 loss to the Tigers and Justin Verlander. The Dodgers have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Wood who is 14-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been particularly tough on the road where he enjoys a 1.72 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and .201 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his still strong (but not filthy) 2.77 ERA along with a 1.02 WHIP and .211 opponent’s batting average in ten starts (twelve games) at home. Furthermore, while Wood comes off another strong start where he allowed only one run at home against the White Sox — and the Dodgers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Wood looking to follow up a Quality Start. |
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08-19-17 | Bears v. Cardinals UNDER 40.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (425) and the Arizona Cardinals (426). Chicago (0-1) finds themselves in the midst of a quarterback battle after their 24-17 loss to the Broncos last Thursday. The Bears’ play was hoping to ease their 1st round draft pick Mitch Trubisky into the starting job with their free agent acquisition of Mike Glennon leading the way in that transition. But Chicago may not have the luxury of leaning on Trubisky if Glennon does not significantly improve after his poor performance last week where he completed only 2 of 8 passes of 20 yards while tossing a very bad interception. Glennon showed sparks of potential when with the Buccaneers with his strong arm — but he has never been the clear starter and may have trouble handling the pressure of being the presumed starter. Trubisky looked the part last week by completing 18 of 25 passes for 166 yards — but he was facing mostly backup competition. Trubisky will likely get the opportunity to face better defensive talent tonight. The Bears were small favorites by kickoff against the Broncos last week — and John Fox-coached teams in the NFL Preseason have played 7 of their 9 games Under the Total when coming off an upset loss at home. Fox will lean on his defense to lead the way in this bounce-back game. That unit did play well against a Denver team dealing with their own quarterback battle as they held the Broncos to just 281 yards of offense while surrendering just 17 points with one of Denver’s touchdowns coming from that pick-six that Glennon thew. Fox’s teams have also played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Toal with the number in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in the Bears last 6 preseason games as an underdog under Fox, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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08-18-17 | Ottawa v. Hamilton UNDER 55.5 | Top | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (353) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (354). Ottawa (1-6-1) continued their tough-luck season last week with a 27-20 loss to Edmonton as a 2.5-point favorite. All six of the losses for the reigning Grey Cup champions have been by 7 points or less. Offense was the problem last week as the Redblacks managed only 308 yards of offense. They held the ball for only 23:30 minutes again the Eskimos so controlling the clock and keeping their defense off the field should be a priority tonight. Moving forward, Ottawa has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against fellow divisional opponents. And in their last 11 games against East Division foes, Ottawa has played 8 of these games Under the Total. |
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08-13-17 | BC v. Saskatchewan UNDER 56.5 | Top | 8-41 | Win | 100 | 0 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the British Columbia Lions (377) and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (378). Saskatchewan (2-4) looks to avenge a 30-15 loss at British Columbia last week. The Roughriders have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a same-season loss to their opponents. First order of business for head coach Chris Jones is to get better play out of his defense after they surrendered 537 yards of offense to the Lions. Jones is a defensive-guru who earned his stripes leading the Edmonton Eskimos to the 2015 Grey Cup based on their ferocious defense — so expect some quality adjustments in this immediate rematch. Saskatchewan managed only 334 yards of offense last week with quarterback Kevin Glenn struggling so expect Jones to try to win a low-scoring game. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Saskatchewan. And in the Roughriders’ last 7 games against fellow West Division opponents, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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08-11-17 | Indians v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (969) and the Tampa Bay Rays (970) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jacob Faria. Tampa Bay (59-57) won the opening game of this series last night with their 4-1 win over the Indians. The Rays have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win. Tampa Bay has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games at home, the Rays have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to their Faria who is 5-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.56 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home as compared to his 3.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. Faria comes off a tough-luck loss in his last start where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work against the Brewers — and Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Faria looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should fare well against the cold Cleveland bats that are scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .176 batting average along with a .238 On-Base Percentage and .527 OPS over that span. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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08-06-17 | Dodgers v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Steven Matz. New York (49-59) has lost three straight as well as six of their last seven contests with their 7-4 loss to the Dodgers yesterday afternoon. The Mets have now seen the Over go 9-1-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Over is 15-4-3 in New York’s last 22 third games of a series. They give the ball to Steven Matz who is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season. The left-hander is struggling — he has not recorded a Quality Start since June 3rd. Matz has been particularly ineffective when pitching at home where he has been saddled with a 9.69 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and a rough .413 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .265 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Additionally, the Over is 24-9-5 in the Mets’ last 38 games at home. |
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08-05-17 | Brewers v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
At 6:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (979) and the Tampa Bay Rays (980) listing both starting pitchers Zack Davies and Alex Cobb. Milwaukee (57-53) has won three of their last four games after taking the opening game of this series last night by a 2-0 score. The Brewers are surviving despite swinging cold bats right now. They have not scored more than four runs in each of their last eight games — and they managed to plate for runners four times just once during that span. Not only has Milwaukee then played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in at least three straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs for at least five straight contests. Additionally, the Brewers have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where four or less combined runs were scored. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in Interleague play. The Brewers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Davies tonight who is 12-5 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. After surviving a horrible April, the right-hander has settled down to pitch quite well albeit under the radar of many. Over his last seven starts, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in five of those occasions — posting a sparkling 2.74 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP over that span. Davies has also been much better away from home for the entire season given his 2.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts on the road as compared to his 6.15 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .304 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Brewers have played 9 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total. |
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07-30-17 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Los Angeles (77-31) has won seven straight games with their 2-1 win over the Giants yesterday. The Dodgers finish out their ten-game home stand tonight — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 59 home games Under the Total after playing at least five straight games at home. Los Angeles has also played 26 of their last 36 home games Under the Total as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Ryu who is 3-6 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .268 opponent’s batting average in seven starts (eight games) at home as compared to his 4.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .293 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Ryu pitching on five days of rest. He should fare well against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers. |
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07-30-17 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
At 1:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (953) and the Philadelphia Phillies (954) listing both starting pitchers R.A. Dickey and Vince Velasquez. Atlanta (48-54) has lost six of their last seven games with their 4-3 loss to the Phillies last night. The Braves have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. Atlanta has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road. They give the ball to Dickey who is 6-7 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. The right-handed knuckleballer has not been as effective on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.68 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 3.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .258 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Braves’ last 6 road games with Dickey pitching as an underdog. Dickey faces a red hot Phillies’ offense that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .333 On-Base Percentage and .807 OPS during that span. |
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07-27-17 | Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 50.5 | Top | 40-41 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (371) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (372). Winnipeg (2-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 45-42 loss at British Columbia last Friday. The Blue Bombers were outscored by an 18-0 score in the 4th quarter to blow that game. Now Winnipeg returns home likely with a hangover which might be difficult for them to shake out of after such a collapse. As it is, the Blue Bombers have seen the Under go 12-5-2 in their last 19 games at home. They do have the league’s best run defense. On offense, they are averaging just 348.5 total YPG which is second-to-last in the CFL. Moving forward, the Under is 4-1-1 in Winnipeg’s last 6 games when playing on a Thursday. |
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07-26-17 | Jamaica v. United States UNDER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total (2.0) in the match between Jamaica (7511) and the USMNT (7512). The USMNT (4-1-0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with their 2-0 victory over Costa Rica on Saturday. While that final result suggests a decisive victory for the Americans, that match was still scoreless after 70 minutes of play until Jozy Altidore scored at the 72nd minute mark. Clint Dempsey — on the pitch as a second-half substitute — then added the second and last goal ten minutes later. Despite controlling the ball for 57% of the match, the Stars and Stripes only attempted 10 shots. But Tim Howard was outstanding in goal for the USMNT to help the Yankees earn their third straight clean sheet. Team USA has allowed only three goals in five matches in this tournament. Expect the Stars and Stripes to play cautiously on their home soil in this Finals match. Depth is an advantage for this team — and this Finals match will have a 30 minute extra time before the contest resorts to a Penalty Kick resolution (as opposed to going directly to PKs after 90 minutes as all the matches in both Group Stage play as well as the Quarterfinals and Semifinals). Remember, Totals plays in soccer are evaluated after 90 minutes of play (and after the few minutes of potential time to accommodate the running clock). Furthermore, there is the issue of Dempsey likely to continue to come off the bench in this match. The forward may be looking to pass Landon Donovan for most goals by an American in international play for the USMNT but the 34-year old cannot be relied upon as a key piece in any potential 2018 World Cup team given his rising age. The Stars and Stripes may be content with not taking many chances until Dempsey takes the pitch sometime in the second-half. |
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07-26-17 | Cubs v. White Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (977) and the Chicago White Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and James Shields. The Cubs (52-47) are playing much better baseball having won nine of their last eleven games with their 7-2 victory over the White Sox last night. The Under is then 13-5-1 in the Cubs’ last 19 games after a win. The Cubbies have also played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes playing eight of their last eleven road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Much of the defending World Series’ success as of late can be attributed to improved starting pitching with Arrieta being one of the key contributors. In his four starts this month, the right-hander has a 2.13 ERA. And over his last two starts on the road, Arrieta has allowed only one earned run in 13 2/3 innings of work. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Arrieta on the hill. He should fare well against this slumping White Sox team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game with a low .251 batting average along with a .290 On-Base Percentage and .656 OPS over their last seven games. |
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07-24-17 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (963) and the Tampa Bay Rays (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gaussian and Blake Snell. Baltimore (47-51) looks to build off their 9-7 victory over the Astros yesterday afternoon. The Orioles have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Gausman who is 6-7 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.98 ERA, 2.01 WHIP and .351 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road as compared to his 5.05 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts at home. The Orioles have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Gausman pitching as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. And while Gausman comes off a nice outing where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work at home against the Rangers, Baltimore has then played 4 of their lease 5 games Over the Total with Gausman on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Rays team that scores 4.9 Runs-Per-Game at home and who have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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07-22-17 | United States v. Costa Rica OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the USMNT (35789) and Costa Rica (35790). The United States (3-1-0) reached the Semifinals of the 2017 Gold Cup with their 2-0 victory over El Salvador. The Stars and Stripes lead all teams in this tournament with nine goals in four matches — and they saw Gyasi Zardes’ goal scored in the Quarterfinals waved off from an incorrect offsides call (in hindsight). The offensive firepower of this team has significantly improved with manager Bruce Arena’s decisions to tap forwards Clint Dempsey and Jozy Altidore along with midfielders Michael Bradley and Darlington Nagbe to begin the Knockout Stage — so this is a roster that looks more like the one Arena hopes to see next summer in the World Cup. Tim Howard also took over in goal for Brad Guzan who joined his new team in the MLS (Atlanta United). But despite that clean sheet on Wednesday, the USMNT looked shaky on defense against El Salvador who blew a handful of strong scoring chances. |
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07-22-17 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (969) and the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Kyle Gibson. Detroit (43-51) has won five of their last seven games with their 6-3 victory in the first game of this series. The Tigers are swinging hot bats: over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .313 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an .884 OPS. The Tigers have played 28 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total. And in their last 18 games against fellow AL Central opponents, the Over is 11-5-2. They send out Zimmermann who is 6-7 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.49 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.29 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .307 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 4.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Tigers’ last 4 road games with Zimmermann on the mound. He faces a Twins team that has scored 4.9 Runs-Per-Game this season against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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07-21-17 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:15 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the San Francisco Giants (914) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Cahill and Jeff Samardzija. San Diego (41-54) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. The Padres have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also a decisive 19-5-2 in San Diego’s last 26 games against fellow NL West opponents. And in their last 4 road games against teams with a losing record at home, the Over is 3-0-1. They give the ball to Cahill who is 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he has a 0.72 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and .169 opponent’s batting average in four starts — but those numbers explode to a 5.01 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .279 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. That is not a good sign when facing this Giants team that has seen the Over go 4-1-2 in their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, the Padres have played a decisive 29 of their last 43 games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. |
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07-20-17 | Honduras v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total (2.5) in the match between Honduras (47365) and Mexico (47366). Mexico (2-1-0) clinched winning Group C of this Gold Cup with their 2-0 victory over Curacao on Sunday. Despite that victory, El Tri has been far from dominant in this tournament — and at times they were dominated by the lesser opponent in that Curacao side. Manager Juan Carlos Osorio has changed his lineup significantly in each of the three matches so far in this event which has impacted in the ability of these younger players to develop chemistry. Mexico has scored only five combined goals in this tournament. But the encouraging sign for El Tri has that they have allowed only one goal so far in this tournament. Goalkeeper Jesus Corona was outstanding on Sunday with four saves including spectacular ones that preserved that clean sheet. Corona was on the roster of the “A-Team” that played in last month’s Confederation’s Cup. Corona is still fighting to earn the starting job on next year’s World Cup team so he should be on his game tonight. |
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07-19-17 | Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 50 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 0 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (351) and the Ottawa Redblacks (352). Montreal (2-2) enters this game coming off a 30-23 upset win over Calgary last Friday. The Alouettes now go on the road where they have played 7 straight games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 49.5-56 point range. Montreal has also played 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Additionally, the Alouettes have seen the Under go 17-5-1 in their last 23 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 9 games in the month of July, Montreal has played 7 of these games Under the Total. |
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07-19-17 | Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 4-18 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
At 3:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Colorado Rockies (906) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Richard and Jon Gray. Colorado (55-41) has won three straight games after their 9-7 victory over the Padres yesterday. The Total is elevated to the 11.5 range for this afternoon Getaway Game — but the Rockies have still played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home in Coors Field. Colorado has also played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total in the month of July. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 6 games against NL West opponents. They send out Gray who is 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.81 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics do call for immediate improvement in Gray’s numbers with a drop of more than 1 1/2 earned runs allowed per outing with his SIERA and xFIP of 4.47 and 4.03. The right-hander has been much better at home where he enjoys a 2.45 ERA as compared to his 9.00 ERA when on the road. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gray on the mound. He should fare well against this Padres team that has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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07-18-17 | Dodgers v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Miguel Gonzalez. Chicago (38-52) has lost four straight games after their 7-6 loss to Seattle on Sunday. The White Sox are slumping with their bats — over their last seven games, they are scoring just 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .211 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and a .628 OPS. That is not a good sign when having to face Kershaw tonight. As it is, Chicago is hitting only .198 over their last five games — and they have then played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total after not hitting at least .200 in their last five games. The White Sox have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-2 in Chicago’s last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Gonzalez who is 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.98 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average in five starts at home as compared to his 5.94 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and .313 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Gonzalez facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. And in their last 11 games against a right-handed starting pitcher, the Under is 7-2-2. |
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07-15-17 | United States v. Nicaragua UNDER 3.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 0 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (10314) and the USMNT (10313). The USMNT (1-1-0) will not know what result they need until the conclusion of the Panama-Martinique contest that is the first Gold Cup match in Cleveland this afternoon. The Stars and Stripes are tied with Panama with 4 points in Group B play — and they have the tie-break advantage with four goals scored as compared to the three goals scored by Panama in these games. It may very well be the case that the Americans will be happy to play conservative to ensure the 1 point from a draw. One likely event for tonight is better play from goalkeeper Brad Guzan. Guzan allowed two soft goals on Wednesday in the USMNT’s 3-2 victory over Martinique. Guzan is a quality keeper and should play better tonight. The Yankees have allowed three goals in these games while scoring four times — which makes the 3 1/2 Total for this match seemingly a bit high. Perhaps the Total has been moved up given the possible need for the USA to score goals to ensure first place in Group B. But this team is not playing with much cohesion having little experience playing with each other. Manager Bruce Arena is using this tournament to give playing time to his entire roster as an audition for next summer’s World Cup. |
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07-13-17 | Jamaica v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 105 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (24266) and Jamaica (24267). Jamaica (1-0-0) stepped up with two goals in the second half on Sunday to secure a 2-0 victory over a Curacao side that had defeated them less than three weeks ago in the Finals of the Caribbean Cup. With 3 points under their belts, the Reggae Boyz are in a very good position to advance to the Knockout Stage — and the point they would secure from a draw would be very valuable. This is a team that thrives on playing cautious with most of their players protecting the back end. Jamaica boasts three strong defenders in Jermaine Taylor, Alvas Powell and Kemar Lawrence who all star in the MLS. Furthermore, the Reggae Boyz have an outstanding goalkeeper in Andrew Blake was awarded the MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Award in 2016. Blake was sensational on Sunday in that match with Curacao as he made six saves against them including three that were Sports Center worthy. |
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07-04-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (969) and the Texas Rangers (970) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Yu Darvish. Boston (48-35) has won five games in a row with their 7-5 victory over the Rangers last night. The Red Sox are swinging hot bats right now: over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .308 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .401 and an OPS of .859. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They send out Price who is 3-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.32 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average in four starts on the road as compared to his 3.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with Price on the mound. And while Price comes off a solid outing where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work against the Twins, the Red Sox have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Price looking to follow up a Quality Start. |
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06-30-17 | BC v. Toronto UNDER 51.5 | Top | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the British Columbia Lions (373) and the Toronto Argonauts (374). Toronto (1-0) had the biggest win by the largest margin in the opening week of the new Canadian Football League season with their 32-15 upset victory over Hamilton. At first glance, the headlining story would likely be quarterback Robby Ray passing for 506 yards under the guidance of new head coach Marc Trestman in his first game back in the CFL after a tour in the National Football League which included a head coaching gig with the Chicago Bears. But perhaps the more exciting development for the Argonauts franchise was the play of their defense which held the Tiger-Cats to just 258 yards of offense. Trestman hired former Saskatchewan head coach (and Grey Cup winner) Corey Chamblin as his defensive coordinator and he displayed a high level of sophisticated blitz schemes and coverages despite the turnover that this team saw on defense from last season. This strong defensive play should carry over to this week. As it is, the Argonauts have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. Additionally, Toronto has played 26 of their last 36 home games when not laying more than 3 points as the favorite. Furthermore, the Argonauts have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the month of June. |
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06-29-17 | Mexico v. Germany OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 34 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Mexico (48779) and Germany (48780). Mexico (2W-1D-0L) is an underdog in this Semifinals match against the German B (or C) team. And while El Tri has a history of disappointments on the big international teams outside of North America, this side has proven themselves resilient. Mexico has trailed in all three of their Group Stage matches — yet they managed to pull out two wins and one draw in all three contests. They fell behind 1-0 to Russia last Saturday but then scored the 30th and 52nd minute to pull out that 2-1 victory. They have scored two goals in all three of their Group Stage matches. But defense has been an issue for this squad. They have given up four goals in this tournament including one in each of their three matches which includes a weak New Zealand side. Not only has their back end been too leaky at times, but they have struggled when facing a high-pressing team — and that is exactly the German style of play. To compound matters, their captain and glue in the midfield Andres Guardado will be out for this match after earning a second Yellow Card versus Russia. |
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06-25-17 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Chad Kuhl and Mike Leake. Pittsburgh (35-40) has won the opening two games of this series after their 7-3 victory yesterday. The Pirates have then played 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. And despite looking to secure the sweep tonight, this Pirates team is hitting just .158 over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played a decisive 33 of their last 48 games Under the Total when hitting no better than .175 in their last three games. They give the ball to Kuhl who is 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching on the road where he owns a 3.45 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his rough 7.36 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and .299 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season where he enjoyed a 2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 7.03 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Pirates have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Kuhl pitching with four days of rest. |
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06-24-17 | Tigers v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (979) and the San Diego Padres (980) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Dinelson Lamet. San Diego (30-44) won the opening game of this series last night by a 1-0 score. The Padres have not allowed more than four runs in five straight games — but they have then played 19 of their last 25 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight contests. San Diego has also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. Furthermore, the Over is 6-2-1 in the Padres’ last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 7 games in Interleague play, the Over is 5-1-1. They send out their 24-year old rookie Lamet who is 2-2 with a 7.50 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP this season. Lamet has not been as effective at home in Petco Park where he has been saddled with a 8.10 ERA and .262 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 7.07 ERA and .222 opponent’s batting average when on the road. |
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06-24-17 | Portugal v. New Zealand UNDER 3.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
At 11:00 AM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Portugal (47112) and New Zealand (47113). Portugal enters this final match in Group A play in the Confederations Cup after their 1-0 victory over Russia on Wednesday. Now the Seleccao needs just a draw to ensure they advance to the Semifinals of this tournament. The stakes are so low for this Portugal side that there is a very good chance that their Talisman Cristiano Ronaldo may sit for this match. Ronaldo was quite effective with his club team Real Madrid this season with him given periodic rest during the season being seen as one of the reasons for his success — so don’t be surprised if he is not on the pitch on Saturday despite manager Fernando Santos refusing to disclose his specific plans on the matter. The Total is set at 3.5 for this match with the expectation that this Portugal side will dominate the Kiwis — they are laying -2.5 goals. Yet the Seleccao has scored only three goals in this tournament. Remember, they scored only nine combined goals in seven matches last summer in the Euro 2016 Championship with three of those goals occurring in one match. And while that three-goal “explosion” did occur in the last match in Group Stage play, that scenario was much different with both Portugal and their opponent Hungary needing a victory to safely advance to the Knockout Stage. That result was a 3-3 draw and the Seleccao managed to slip in to the Round of 16 as the bottom seed. So I do not expect the Seleccao to score three or more goals in this match. I also see Portugal continue to play outstanding defense in this match after tightening things up on Wednesday after allowing two goals to Mexico in their opening match. Keeper Rui Patricio was outstanding in his shutout over the Russians. What is perhaps the most underrated strength of the European Champions is just how stingy when it comes to giving up goals. Portugal allowed only five goals in their seven Euro matches last season — with three of those goals in that Group Stage match against Hungary. The Seleccao enjoyed four clean sheets in the Euro last summer — and they have a great opportunity to claim yet another on Saturday. |
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06-22-17 | Chile v. Germany OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chile (85646) and Germany (85647). Germany (1-0-0) is using this tournament to audition a new generation of players who can earn themselves roles as this national team makes a major push to win the 2018 World Cup. Twelve likely players including most of the stars from next year’s national team — including Arsenal midfielder Mesut Ozil along with forward Thomas Mueller and keeper Manuel Nuer — did not make the trip to Russia. But Die Mannschaft is rich with soccer talent and this “Germany 2.0” still has plenty of quality players as they displayed on Sunday in their 3-2 victory over Australia. The German style on the pitch is to be aggressive — they are averaging 4.3 Goals-Per-Game in their nine matches in the Confederations Cup as a national squad. On Sunday, Germany collected 18 shots with six of them on target — scoring on three of these shots. Frankly, it could have been more particularly in the first half. Midfielder Julian Draxler looks destined to play an important role on next summer’s squad — and he scored an important goal at the 44th minute to give the Germans a 2-1 lead going into halftime. But defense looks to be a concern for this side as Australia was able to expose gaps in their back end as this match went on. Furthermore, keeper Bernd Leno did not demonstrate he is a threat to displace Nuer between the posts next year as the two goals he conceded were pretty shaky. Defensive tactics have been an issue for manager Joachim Low’s national teams with Germany — and this is a group that only had ten days of practice together to begin establishing some chemistry and cohesion. |
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06-21-17 | Astros v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (925) and the Oakland A’s (926) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Sean Manaea. Houston (48-24) has won two straight games after their 6-2 victory over the A’s last night. The Astros have then seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a win. The Over is also 10-4-3 in Houston’s last 17 games on the road. They send out Fiers who is 4-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been even less effective in his seven starts on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .268 as compared to his 2.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average when at home. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last season where Fiers had a 4.99 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to the modest improvements of a 4.09 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .273 opponents batting average when he was pitching at home. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Astros’ last 4 road games with Fiers facing a team with a losing record. He faces an Oakland team that has seen the Over go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the A’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. |
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06-17-17 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (925) and the Houston Astros (926) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and David Paulino. Boston (38-29) has won four of their last five games with their 2-1 win over the Astros last night. The Red Sox have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, after Chris Sale’s complete game shutout on Thursday, Boston’s bullpen has pitched only 2 1/3 innings over the last two days — and they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not having their bullpen pitch more than 3 innings of work in each of their last two games. And with the Red Sox having won six of their last eight games, they have then played 22 of the last 30 road games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eighth games. The Under is also 3-1-1 in Boston’s last 5 games on the road. They send out Porcello who is 3-8 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season. It has been a disappointing start for the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner — but the deeper sabermetrics strongly suggest that better times are coming. The right-hander’s BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play) of .366 is the highest of all qualifying pitchers and should drop (along with his opponent’s batting average). Porcello is enjoying his best strikeout rate in his career. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.09 and 4.23 moving forward. Porcello has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.76 ERA as compared to his 5.40 ERA when at home. The under is also 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games with Porcello pitching with four days of rest. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 230.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (709) and the Golden State Warriors (710). Cleveland (64-35) made a huge withdrawal from the Bank of the Regression Gods on Friday by collecting on the plethora of missed open shots in the first three games of this series en route to their epic 137-116 victory over the Warriors. The Cavaliers broke a host of NBA Finals records including most points in the first quarter (49), most points by halftime (86) — and their 115 points after three quarters were more than they what they had scored in any of the first three games of this series. Cleveland made 59.1% of their uncontested shots in Game Four after making host 38.4% of their uncontested shots in the first three games of this series. And most of those shots were from behind the arc — the Cavaliers became the first team in NBA Finals history to take more 3-point shots than 2-point shots. That is the simplest way to dissect why Golden State has a 3-1 lead in this series. In Game Four, Cleveland players not named LeBron James or Kyrie Irving combined to make 14 of their 25 (56%) 3-pointers. It is that simple. Golden State (82-16) scored 116 points on their losing effort despite shooting just 44.8% from the field which was their second worst shooting performance in their last nine games. The Warriors also made just 11 of 39 shots from downtown (28.2%). Draymond Green’s 16 shots were more than both Stephen Curry (13) and Klay Thompson (11). And after averaging 33 PPG in transition in the first three games of this series, the Warriors managed only 7 points in transition. So while it would be foolish to expect the Cavs to come close to replicating their offensive performance from Game Four, it is very reasonable to expect Golden State to play much better on offense and surpass the 116 points they scored on Friday. In a series that is fast-paced with plenty of 3-point attempts and plenty of trips to the charity stripe, I still don’t think the oddsmakers adjustment to (finally) place the Total in the low-230s is high enough. After four games, Cleveland is 77 of 100 (77%) which translates to a 19.3-25 FT/FTA per game average. Golden State has made 82 of 100 free throws for a 20.6-25 FT/FTA per game average. These teams are combining to tack off 40 points from the Total just from the charity stripe. The 3-point numbers are even more fascinating (as I tweeted out this morning). Cleveland has made 55 of 149 shots from behind the arc for a 36.9% average. Golden State has made 57 of 148 shots from the 3-point line for a 38.6% mark. Both teams are averaging 13.8 and 14.3 made 3s per game on 37.3 and 37 shots per game from behind the arc. In this closeout game which should see both teams starters on the floor until the waning moments even if one team is dominating, expect another high-scoring affair. |
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06-11-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
At 4:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (912) listing both starting pitchers Chase Anderson and Robbie Ray. Arizona (37-26) has won four of their last five games with their 3-2 victory over the Brewers yesterday. The Diamondbacks have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 23-9-2 in Arizona’s last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Over is a decisive 50-22-3 in the Diamondbacks’ last 75 games at home — and that includes playing twenty of their last twenty-seven home games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5-10 range. They send out Ray who is 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. The right-hander has allowed only one earned run in his last 30 1/3 innings of work — but the deeper sabermetrics call for regression. Both Ray’s SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.48 and 3.44 respectively moving forward. Ray has also not been as effective at home where he has a 5.67 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his microscopic 0.64 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP and .134 opponent’s batting average in six starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total with Ray on there mound. That bodes for trouble when facing this Brewers team that has played 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 228.5 | Top | 116-137 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (707) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (708). Cleveland (63-35) finds themselves on the brink of elimination after blowing a 6-point lead late in the 4th quarter in their 118-113 loss on Wednesday as a 3-point underdog. With the second straight game where at least 231 combined points were scored, the Total has risen to the 228 range. With a number that high, it does not take much defense or slowing of the pace to produce an Under. But do not expect the Cavaliers to mail-in this effort. Cleveland will be playing for pride on their home court — and the opportunity to ruin the Warriors attempt to make history with the NBA’s first perfect 16-0 playoff mark should ensure a fast start for the underdogs. While this series can be dissected to death, my primary take is quite simple: Cleveland is not making baskets. On Wednesday, they shot only 44.4% from the field while making just 12 of their 44 shots from the 3-point line (27.3%). In Game One, the Caves made only 34.9% of their shots while making 11 of their 31 shots from the 3-point line for a 35.5% mark that turned out to be their best so far in these playoffs. In Game Two, Cleveland shot 45% from the field (their best mark in this series) but made only 8 of 29 of their 3-pointers (27.6%). Credit the Warriors’ defense — but keep in mind they are primarily focused on stopping LeBron James and Kyrie Irving who combined for 77 points on Wednesday. There is no question that Zaza Pachulia and the rest of the Warriors have completely neutered Tristan Thompson. But the Cavaliers’ supporting cast continue to miss open 3-point shots which has been the biggest difference in this series. In Game Three, they made only 3 of their 18 corner 3-point attempts while making just 7 of their 30 uncontested 3-point shots! Now with the pressure off this team facing a near-impossible 0-3 deficit to overcome, I do expect some of the 3-pointers to find the net rather than the rim. I won’t re-quote the analytics entering this series for the Cavaliers that I have referenced previously — but suffice to say that their Offensive Efficiency and effective field goal percentage was not just better than the Warriors this postseason but the best mark in the NBA Playoffs over the last forty years. That 44.4% mark in Game Three was their second worst offensive performance in their last twelve games — with the worst being Game One of the NBA Finals when they were playing off the rust of six days rest. This remains a team that shoots 48.6% on their home court while also making 39.1% of their shots from behind the arc. The Cavs’ open jumpers — and 3-pointers — are bound to fall sooner rather than later. |
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06-05-17 | Penguins v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (7) and the Nashville Predators (8). Pittsburgh (65-28-6) scored in the first three minutes of the 1st period on Saturday but failed to score a goal for the remaining 57 minutes in their 5-1 loss to the Predators in Game Three of this series. The Penguins have scored just six goals in their last four road games as well as only ten goals in their last six playoff games on the road. While the Pens are loaded with scorers at forward, they are playing a bit more conservatively than perhaps they would like given the injuries they have endured on defense — most notably with their talisman blue-liner in Kris Letang. The team was also without their third-line center Nick Bonino on Saturday and he is listed as questionable for Game Four with his lower body injury. Goalie Matt Murray suffered his worst game in these playoffs by allowing five goals on 33 shots — he should play better tonight after stopping 60 of the first 64 shots he has faced in this series. Nashville scored twice in the 3rd period on Saturday — and Pittsburgh has played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the 3rd period of their last game. The Penguins have also played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after a loss by at least two goals. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. And in their last 47 opportunities on the road to avenge a loss to their opponent, 32 of these games finished Under the Total. |
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06-02-17 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Jason Vargas. Cleveland (28-24) has won four of their last five games with their 8-0 victory over the A’s yesterday. The Under is then 26-10-2 in the Indians’ lat 38 games after a victory. The Under is also 17-6-3 in Cleveland’s last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record, the Under is 7-2-1. They send out Tomlin who is 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics project better times for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 3.75 respectively moving forward. Tomlin has been more effective on the road where he owns a strong 1.13 WHIP as compared to his 1.44 WHIP along with a 6.19 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .321 when pitching at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Tomlin had a 4.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 4.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Under is 6-1-2 in the Indians’ last 9 games on the road. He should fare well against this Royals’ team that has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Tomlin also loves to pitch against Kansas City — he is 10-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 23 career appearances which includes 19 starts against the Royals. |