06-12-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (13) and the Boston Bruins (14). THE SITUATION: Boston (64-32-9) forced a climactic seventh game of the Stanley Cup Finals on Sunday with their 5-1 victory over St. Louis (60-38-9). The Bruins return home to TD Garden for the decisive final game of this series and the 2018-19 NHL season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston got outstanding play once again from goalie Tuukka Rask who stopped 28 of the 29 shots he faced while keeping his team competitive in the first period when the Blues enjoyed two Power Play chances. Rask entered this series with a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage in this postseason — and while some regression was expected, he still sports a strong .924 save percentage in the first six games of this series while allowing only 13 goals in those contests. This is Rask’s sixth career Game Seven start in the playoffs along with his second Game Seven in the Stanley Cup Finals — so the moment should not be too big for him. Rask is being helped by outstanding play from the Bruins’ top two defensive pairings who have thwarted 17 of the 18 Power Play chances St. Louis has had in this series. Expect continued outstanding defensive play from this Bruins team that has played 29 of their last 47 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in five days. Boston snapped a two-game losing streak to win Game Six — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three contests. And while the Bruins scored five goals on Sunday (with one being an empty netter), they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing at home after finding the back of the net at least five times in their last game. St. Louis has played 27 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. The Bruins entered the third period with just a one-goal lead before exploding for four goals to force this seventh game. The Blues have played a decisive 32 of their last 52 games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period in their last game. Goalie Jordan Binnington surrendered four goals in Game Six — but he still has a nice .925 save percentage by allowing only seven goals in the last three games of this series even after Sunday. Binnington has been consistently outstanding when attempting to lead his team after a loss this season. In his nine starts after a Blues lost in this postseason, Binnington has responded with a 1.86 GAA along with a .941 save percentage while allowing just sixteen goals in those nine contests. This playoff success continued his strong play after losses in the regular season where Binnington posted a .935 save percentage while surrounding only 10 goals in the six games he started after a loss. Wednesday’s Game Seven will be St. Louis’ fifth game in the last fourteen days — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when playing no more than five games in the last fourteen days. Additionally, the Blues have played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied — and they have played 14 of their last 21 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four goals. With this being a Game Seven in the Stanley Cup Finals, the referees will be a bit more conservative in calling penalties as they will be reticent to have their calls play a critical role — this is especially true after the controversial no-call on a Blues’ trip in the third period of Game Five of this series that played a significant role in St. Louis winning that game. And don’t forget the controversy the league offices felt with San Jose’s three-goal comeback in Game Seven of their series with Vegas stemming from a controversial five-minute major penalty called in that game. Lastly, seventh games tend to see both teams play a bit more cautiously as they hope to not put their opponent on the Power Play. While three of the games in this series have gone Over the Total, two of those final scores came from late empty net goals (which are rarer than they have appeared in this series). Outside the third period on Sunday and the first periods of the first three games of this series, this has been a very low scoring series. Look for this final game to follow those trends. 25* NHL Playoffs Game Seven A-List O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (13) and the Boston Bruins (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-19 |
Norway (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). THE SITUATION: Norway (1-0-0) won their opening match of the 2019 Women’s World Cup with a dominant 3-0 victory over Nigeria on Saturday. France (1-0-0) began this tournament as the host nation last Friday with a 4-0 victory over South Korea.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With both sides securing sizable victories in their opening match, the significance of this match lightens a bit since advancement to the Round of 16 Knockout Stage should be in pretty good shape. Given that, both teams may play a bit more cautiously since a big loss hurts their goal differential which could become an issue if they either team would not secure at least the one point with a draw in their final Group Stage match. France is more a reserved side than the group that lost in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 World Cup in Canada. Roster turnover explains most of that with a previous generation of goal scorers retiring. Les Blues are one of the top favorites to win this event not only because they are the host nation but because their national squad is dominated by the French professional club in Lyon that is — by far — the best women’s professional team in the world. But Lyon’s best attackers play for other national teams. However, the core group of the French defense are Lyon starters in Wendie Renard, Griddle MBock Bathy, and Amel Majri along with their keeper, Sarah Bouhaddi. National teams that have a cluster of starters who play together on their national team gives them an edge in cohesion — so this should be a very tight defensive group this summer. Renard scored twice in their win over South Korea — but don’t expect a defender to score goals on a regular basis for this team. France tends to play lower scoring matches against the better teams in the world. Their last loss was in a friendly to Germany by a 1-0 score back on February 28th. They defeated Australia by a 2-0 score on October 5th while also beating 1-0 win over Canada on April 9th. Les Bleus did lose to Team USA by a 3-1 score on January 9th in a friendly — but that match may have sent a message to manager Corinne Diacre. Even playing on their home soil, the French probably cannot get into a shootout with the Americans. On the heels of the Stars and Stripes 13-0 win over Thailand yesterday, this may be a match where Diacre wants her side to focus on defensive tactics and counter-attacks. In their 2015 World Cup run where they lost on the Quarterfinals to England via Penalty Kicks after a 1-1 score in extra time, France had their clean sheets and three of their five matches result on less than three combined goals (after squashes against Mexico and South Korea). Norway manager Martin Sjogren has already indicated that she will have her side play more cautiously in this contest as they look to neutralize a French attack and look to score on counters. The Grasshoppers are without their best attacker — and probably the best female player in the world — in Ada Hegerberg — who is boycotting her participation with her national team that continues to treat women’s soccer with second class status as compared to their middling men’s side. Norway had three goals against a Nigeria team that is shaky on defense — but that final goal was an Own Goal by the African Cup champs. Norway remains a solid team without Hegerberg who can still make a deep run in the Knockout Stage if they develop confidence and cohesion. They also have cohesion in their backline with Chelsea teammates Maren Mjelde and Maria Thorisdottir — and they are joined by a potential superstar in Graham Hansen who has something to prove after a knee injury kept her out of the 2015 World Cup. Even a 1-0 loss to Les Bleus could be a psychological victory for the Grasshoppers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have not seen more than two combined goals scored in their last seven head-to-head meetings. Expect a low scoring match — especially given the situation they have given the early events of this tournament. 25* Women’s World Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-19 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. THE SITUATION: Toronto (23-42) begins this series having lost four straight games after their 8-2 loss on Sunday to Arizona. Baltimore (20-45) has lost four of their last five games with their 4-0 loss in Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays’ offense is struggling after getting shutout once and plating only four runners in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They generated only one base-hit in their sixteen at-bats with Runners In Scoring Position over those three games — and they are hitting just .161 over their last 112 at-bats with RISP. Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set at 9 to 9.5. The Blue Jays have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Thornton who is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The rookie is striking out 24.8% of the batters he has faced — and he is averaging a robust 9.8 batters per 9 innings of work. Walks have been his biggest weakness — but the right-hander has been much better on the road where he has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in six starts as compared to his 6.39 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Thornton on the hill. Thornton should pitch well against this Orioles lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .217 over that span with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Orioles have played five straight games where neither team scored more than four runs — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where neither team scored more than four runs. Baltimore returns home to Charm City where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Orioles have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Means who is 5-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHP in ten starts (fourteen appearances). The right-hander has maintained a 2.77 ERA in his last ten appearances since April 14th. The left-hander has been remarkably consistent as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine of his ten starts including his last six starts. Means has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.53 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in five starts (seven appearances) as compared to his 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Orioles have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Means on the mound — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Means pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over that span with a .214 batting average, .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .642 over that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 35-15-1 in their last 51 meetings — and this includes the Under going 14-6-1 in the last 21 contests between these AL East rivals when playing in Camden Yards. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-105 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). THE SITUATION: Toronto (73-31) took a commanding 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Friday with their 105-92 upset victory over the Warriors. The Raptors host Game Five as they look to lift the NBA championship trophy with Golden State (70-32) looking to extend this series to a sixth game back home in the Oracle Center.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And while Toronto has covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Raptors have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Toronto’s outstanding defense has been their calling card this postseason. They have held their playoff opponents to just 42.0% shooting from the field — and they have limited their last five opponents to just 42.8% shooting. The Raptors won Game Four despite making just 41.9% of their shots from the field in a shooting effort that I expected to see from them in Game Three where instead they shot a surprising 52.4% from the field. Now with the opportunity to close out this series and win the championship on their home court, I expect this Toronto team to be a bit nervy with their shooting. The Raptors have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in playoff games where they have the opportunity to close out the series. Golden State has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing elimination in the playoffs. The Warriors should play tough on the defensive end of the court with their season on the line. This is a team that usually plays better on defense when on the road — they have held their home hosts to just 43.8% shooting this season which is a few notches below the 44.4% opponent’s field goal percentage for the year overall. Golden State has seen the Under go 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Warriors suffered upset losses in their last two games at home as a favorite in this series, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two in a row— and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upsets in a row. The team may decide to play Kevin Durant with it being an elimination game. While they certainly need his offensive skills after making only 44.2% of their shots over their last five games, it remains a question how effective he will be if not at 100% and rusty from all the time he has been away from the court. And don’t underestimate Durant’s importance on the defensive end of the court as he offers the Warriors a big body to potentially slow down Kawhi Leonard. If Durant plays, the Golden State offense tends to slow down in pace as well with him looking to generate one-on-one scoring chances. The other big update for this Warriors team was the surprise return of Kevon Looney who had previously been declared out for the remainder of this playoff series by the team. One of the reasons we had the Over in Game Four was that Looney’s absence likely ensured more playing time for Boogie Cousins who is helpful on offense but a liability on defense. Looney’s ability to take the court helps the Golden State defense while limiting their offensive capabilities in lieu of Cousins. Regardless of whether or not Durant plays, this Warriors team has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as a road dog getting no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from two straight upset losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-19 |
Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
123-109 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). THE SITUATION: Golden State (70-30) evened this series at 1-1 on Sunday with their 109-104 upset win at Toronto (71-31). The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State vastly improved their efficiency in their half-court offense after scoring just 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the half court in Game One of this series. The Warriors improved that mark to a 1.068 PPP rate in the half court in Game Two which was the most efficient mark that the Raptors have allowed in these playoffs. Regression is likely for this Golden State team — especially with all the injuries they are dealing with tonight. Klay Thompson claims that he will play tonight — but head coach Steve Kerr will not play him if he is experiencing pain with the pulled hamstring he suffered on Sunday. While Thompson’s ability to launch jump shots should not be affected by this injury, his movement will be — so he may have difficulty getting open if and when he does play tonight. Kevin Durant is still not ready to play in this series — and the Warriors lost Kevon Looney to a season-ending cartilage fracture injury on Sunday. DeMarcus Cousins played surprisingly well in Game Two but he is still not at 100% as he recovers from his torn quad — and he is still working back into game shape after missing over a month of play. Even Andre Iguodala is not at 100% as he is dealing with a sprained calf of his own. Golden State’s most reliable offensive threat remains Stephen Curry — but when the Raptors deployed the gimmick box-and-one defense in the late moments of the fourth quarter, the Warriors’ offense stalled to a near halt. While the Warriors will adjust to that gimmick defense, the reason why it worked is that Golden State simply lacks reliable scoring threats with all these injuries they have endured. Bettors who had the closing over/under number of 212.5 still cashed their Over tickets that looked like locks midway through the final quarter even with the ugly scoring drought suffered by both teams — and the Warriors have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory. Now the Warriors finally return to the Oracle Center for the first time since May 16th after playing their last four games on the road. Golden State has played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last four games on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 13 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Toronto should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Warriors to make 46.3% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Raptors have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Toronto has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Raptors also experienced problems on the offensive end of the court with them shooting just 37.2% of their shots from the field. Kawhi Leonard has seen his offensive productivity steadily decline as the postseason moves on. Leonard has been nursing a leg injury of his own and he seems to be tiring. He only had seven isolation plays on offense with a mere four post-up plays with his energy appearing to be limited. Now Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in five of shier last six games — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Raptors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Expect a lower scoring game tonight. 25* NBA Wednesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-19 |
Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-134 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (7) and the St. Louis Blues (8). THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30-9) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Saturday with their 7-2 victory on the road against the Blues. St. Louis looks to even this series at 2-2 on their home ice before traveling to Boston for Game Five on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues should play a more disciplined defensive game after falling behind by a 4-0 score early in the second period when Boston scored on a Power Play that was carried over from the first period. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Blues have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. Goalie Jordan Binnington allowed five goals in that game before being pulled — but he has been very reliable when attempting to bounce-back from a loss. In his six starts after a loss in the regular season, Binnington stopped 141 of the 151 shots he faced for a .935 save percentage. In his eight starts in the playoffs this postseason after a loss, Binnington has stopped 194 of the 207 shots he has faced for a .935 save percentage along with 1.84 Goals-Against-Average. The Blues stay at home where they have played 40 of their last 64 home games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. St. Louis has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when a money-line favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range. And in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Blues have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least six goals in their last contest. The Bruins have held their last five opponents to just 1.6 Goals-Per-Game after their goaltender, Tuukka Rask, stopped 27 of the 29 shots he faced. Rask has a nice .919 save percentage in this series. Moving forward, Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Bruins stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series. After Game Three was a high-scoring affair, expect the fourth game of this series to be lower-scoring. The last two games have seen plenty of scoring in the first period. Expect the play in the first period of this game to be very cautious. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (7) and the St. Louis Blues (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors OVER 212.5 |
Top |
109-104 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Toronto Raptors (524). THE SITUATION: Toronto (71-30) won the opening game of this series on Thursday with their 118-109 victory as a 2-point favorite. The Raptors have now won and covered the point spread in five straight games. Golden State (69-30) had their six-game winning streak snapped in that game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors shot just 43.6% from the field on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-seven games. Golden State has seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games on the road — and the Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, Golden State has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Moving forward, the Warriors have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second game of a playoff series. Golden State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the NBA Finals. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 second games of a playoff series Over the Total. The Raptors have also played 21 of their last 32 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 31 of their last 47 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 25 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the game finished Over the Total 17 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 contests Over the Total — and they have also played five straight games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Toronto Raptors (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-19 |
Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (58-36-9) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 3-2 victory in overtime over Boston (62-30-9). The Blues return home to the Enterprise Center to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The first period of Game Two saw both teams score goals before that game became a defensive slugfest for the next two periods. The Blues limited the Bruins to just 23 shots in that game which included an extra 3:21 minutes of overtime. St. Louis has only allowed 1.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. The Under is 14-6-2 in their last 22 games when playing an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Under is also a decisive 44-21-4 in their last 69 games when playing with two days of rest — and this includes them playing twenty of their last twenty-nine games at home Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blues have won four of their last five games — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a home favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range. The Blues have also played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when a playoff series is tied. Boston has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their previous game in overtime. Furthermore, the Bruins have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Boston has also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. The Bruins have also held their last five opponents to only 1.6 Goals-Per-Game. They now go back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total. Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. And in their last 14 games when playing with two days of rest, the Under is 9-4-1.
FINAL TAKE: With the series tied at 1-1, expect another low scoring game between these two teams. With the Total set at just 5, the oddsmakers are daring bettors to take the Over. Don’t take the bait. 25* NHL NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-19 |
Angels v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-29) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-3 score. Seattle (24-35) has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Angels have played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-4 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander does his best pitching at home where he sports a 2.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 — but he sees those numbers rise to a 6.56 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in five starts. He will be supported by a bullpen that has been rocked with a 5.25 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over their last seven games. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing the Mariners — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing this team in Seattle. Skaggs faces a Mariners team that has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has also seen the Over go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 29-14-1 in the Mariners’ last 44 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Additionally, the Over is 12-3-1 in the Mariners’ last 16 games at home — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Over is 15-5-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Leake who is 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.44 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .300 in four starts at T-Mobile Park as opposed to his 1.36 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Leake had a 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Seattle has also played 5 straight games Over the Total with Leake facing the Angels. Leake will be supported by a tired bullpen that has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over their last two games. The Mariners have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings over their last two games. This bullpen has a 4.86 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP when pitching at home. The Angels are scoring a robust 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820 over that span. Additionally, LA has played 5 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-31-19 |
Indians v. White Sox UNDER 10 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. THE SITUATION: Chicago (26-29) ha won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 10-4 score. Cleveland (28-27) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. Cleveland has now played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.40 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in six starts. The Under is a decisive 45-11-7 in the Indians’ last 63 road games with Bauer on the hill. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 road games in Chicago facing the White Sox. Bauer will be supported by an elite Indians’ bullpen that has a 3.15 ERA on the road with a 1.21 WHIP. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season while posting a .249 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .694 in those games. Chicago has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 15-7-1 in the White Sox’s last 23 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least six runs over an AL Central rival. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 Games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total after scoring at least 8 runs in their last contest. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Covey who is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in five starts and seven appearances this season. The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home where he sees is ERA and WHIP plummet to 2.61 and 1.16 marks — and his opponents are hitting just .189 when he pitching at home in Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has played 5 straight games Under the Total with Covey pitching on four days of rest between starts — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Covey making the start against the Indians. Covey’s bullpen enters this game with a 2.37 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in night games this season. Cleveland is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .224 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668. The Indians have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With Bauer struggling this month and bettors not giving much respect to Covey, the Total has been set in the 10 range for this contest. Bauer has allowed at least four runs in his last three starts — but all those efforts were at home where he has a history of not always being as effective. Bauer has still amassed 88 strikeouts in 76 innings of work — and he is facing a White Sox team that strikes out 30% of the time against elite starting pitchers like Bauer with similar profiles. Covey is not a strikeout pitcher and gets into trouble when issuing too many bases-on-balls — but the ground ball pitcher has better control when pitching at home. 10s or higher is too high for this matchup especially with two of the weaker lineups in the league. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-30-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213.5 |
Top |
109-118 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). THE SITUATION: Golden State (69-29) has won six straight games after they completed their four-game sweep over Portland by defeating them on the road by a 119-117 score as a 2.5-point favorite back on May 20th. Toronto (70-30) has won four straight games after rallying from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Milwaukee by a 4-2 margin with their 100-94 victory as a 1.5-point road favorite last Saturday. The Raptors host the opening two games of this series. Kevin Durant has been ruled out for this game — but the news I have been waiting for was the confirmation by the Warriors that DeMarcus Cousins will be considered active for tonight’s opening game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the big break before the start of the NBA Finals, looking at team trends is helpful to assess how these two teams will respond to the extended time off. Golden State has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total when playing with at least three of rest. Toronto has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest between contest. Additionally, the Raptors have played 20 of their last 31 home games Over the Total after a straight-up victory. Toronto has covered the point spread in their last four games — and not only have they played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests but they have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They held the Bucks to just 40% shooting on Saturday which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games as their defensive wall against Giannis Antetokounmpo further frustrated that Milwaukee offense. But they will have to hope the chalkboard clean regarding their defensive schemes against this potent Warriors attack. The Raptors face a dilemma on defense as they want to have Danny Green get significant minutes to take advantage of his size in defending Stephen Curry who will torch smaller defenders like Kyle Lowry or Fred VanVleet — but Green is slow in switching off pick-and-rolls and he cannot be a liability with his outside shooting. Green has a great pedigree of nailing 3s in the NBA Finals given his time with San Antonio — but his cold shooting continues, he will have to be benched for VanVleet who has been on fire with his 3-point shooting but is a defensive liability. Furthermore, Toronto has played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range which includes them playing five of their last seven games at home Over the Total in that point spread range. Golden State plays at a quicker pace without Durant on the court as they can replace quick ball movement with his one-on-one isolation skills that does drain time off the shot-clock. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 road games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least 115 points. Golden State shot just 46.5% from the field in their last game against the Blazers which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. The Warriors have not been as sharp on defense as teams of the past in this postseason as they are allowing the 9th most Points-Per-Possession in these playoffs. They certainly miss Durant’s defensive capabilities — and he would have been the primary ball defender on Kawhi Leonard. Moving forward, Golden State stays on the road for the third straight game where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 5 contests. The Warriors have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Additionally, Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games in the NBA Finals Over the Total. And with Cousins likely to play tonight, that puts the icing on the cake for this Over play (and the 25* rating) since the big man fills a hole on offense with his post-up and shooting skills while representing a liability on the defensive end of the court.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the Raptors pulling the upset in the last meeting back on December 12th where they won by a 113-93 score on the road as an 8-point underdog. The Warriors have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total including four straight Overs when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). THE SITUATION: Boston (69-29-9) won the opening game of the Stanley Cup Finals on Monday with their 4-2 victory over St. Louis (57-36-9). The Bruins host the second game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues took a 2-0 lead in this game as they were able to successfully take advantage of the rust that Boston endured after not playing for eleven days after sweeping Carolina in four games. St. Louis either started playing safe or they were concerned about the speed of the Bruins’ forwards — but, either way, their defensemen offered too much space which gave too much room for the Boston offensive players to maneuver at will. St. Louis thrives when playing physical — look for head coach Craig Berube to get his team back to engaging in this style of play tonight which should include playing tighter against the Bruins’ forwards. The Blues allowed two goals in the third period on Monday — and they have played 31 of their last 50 games Under the Total on the road after surrendering at least two goals in the third period of their last game. St. Louis has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least two goals. Rookie goalie Jordan Binnington did not play bad — he was peppered with 37 shots in Game One while he stopped 34 of them (with the last Boston goat being an empty-netter). Binnington has been outstanding when he is between the pipes after a Blues loss. In the regular season, Binnington stopped 141 of the 151 shots he faces in six games following a St. Louis loss for a sparkling .395 save percentage. And after the Blues’ seven losses in this postseason, Binnington has stopped 194 of the 207 shots he has faced for a .937 save percentage. As it is, St. Louis has allowed only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games — and they can take stock in the fact they stopped four of the five Power Play chances by the Bruins. The Blues may also see the return of one of their top-four defensemen in Vince Dunn who has missed the last four games with a facial injury after getting struck by a puck. Dunn has taken part in the team’s last three practices with the last two without the need of a protective visor. But St. Louis may have bigger problems on the offensive end of the ice after they generated only 12 shots in the final two periods of Game One. The Blues have seen the Under go 26-11-2 in their last 39 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game — and the Under is 20-8-3 in their last 31 games against teams that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. This team scores only 2.8 Goals-Per-Game when playing away from home. Additionally, the Under is 34-13-3 in St. Louis’ last 50 road games as a big underdog priced in the +151 to +200 range. The Blues have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series. Boston has played 15 of their last 22 games after a win at home where they scored at least four goals. The Bruins have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. Goalie Tuukka Rask showed the outstanding form in the second half of that game that he has displayed this postseason as he entered this series with a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage. Boston has allowed only 1.9 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have given up just 1.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two goals — and they have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by at least two goals. 25* NHL NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-19 |
Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (26-29) has won three of their last four games after winning the third game of this series last night by an 11-6 score. Pittsburgh (26-27) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. The Reds host this Getaway Game this afternoon to close out this four-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also seen the Over go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And the Over is now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They give the ball to Brault who will serve as the opener this afternoon with his 1-1 record along with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings of work. The left-hander has been even less effective on the road where he has a 9.00 ERA with 2.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .353 in 12 innings — and he has an 11.88 ERA with a 2.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .378 during the day this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 4 road games with Brault on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Reds lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .340 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .988 over that span. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Cincy’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates’ bullpen will be called on to log in plenty of innings after Brault this afternoon — but that group has an ERA of 5.85 over their last seven games with a WHIP of 1.67. Cincinnati has played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Reds have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 2-2- with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.68 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in four starts as compared to his 4.55 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP on the road. Tony Disco had a 5.02 ERA at home in the Great American Ballpark last year as competed to his more modest 4.78 ERA when on the road. The Over is 4-0-2 in Cincinnati’s last 6 home games with DeSclafani on the hill — and the Reds have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with him facing the Pirates. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 6.58 ERA over their last seven games. Pittsburgh is also swinging hot bats as they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .292 batting average with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams in this afternoon Getaway Game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-28-19 |
Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-18) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-5 score over New York (26-27).
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets bullpen surrendered seven runs in their last loss yesterday on Memorial Day. New York has then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four runs. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Mets have played 18 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Matz who is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bearish on the left-handed knuckleballer with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.06 and 4.00 moving forward. Matz has been very good at home where he owns a 1.50 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 — but those numbers rise to a 6.10 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Matz had a 3.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 at home but a 4.46 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 8 road games with Matz facing a team with a winning record. The Over is also 9-2-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games when Matz is pitching on four days rest. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .306 batting average along with a .392 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .898 over that span. Los Angeles is also scoring a healthy 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .277 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .837. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers banged out 17 hits yesterday — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after producing at least 17 hits in their last game. They counter with Hill who is 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving as his SIERA and xFIP project a rise in his ERA to 3.28 and 3.29 respectively based on his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 3.27 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in two starts. Last year, Hill had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 at home with all those numbers improving to a 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .193 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with Hill pitching on the road. And while Hill comes off a nice outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work at Tampa Bay, the Over is 16-4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 21 games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average, .314 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .822 in those games. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 7 of their last 8 meetings in Los Angeles Over the Total. Expect another high-scoring game. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-27-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (1) and the Boston Bruins (2). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (57-35-9) reached the Stanley Cup Finals by defeating San Jose in six games with their 5-1 victory at home last Tuesday. Boston (61-29-9) has won seven games in a row after they completed their four-game sweep of Carolina that they concluded on the road back on May 16th by a 4-0 score. The Bruins host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston is getting outstanding goaltending from a former Vezina Trophy winner in Tuukka Rask who has a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage in these playoffs. Over his last seven games, Rask has a 1.29 GAA along with a .961 save percentage. Boston has allowed only five combined goals over their last five games while never allowing more than two goals over that span. Rask has two shutouts in these last five games. The Bruins have then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in four straight games. Boston looks to get their veteran leader Zdeno Chara back tonight after he missed the last game of the series with the Hurricanes with an injury. He will help a Bruins’ Power Play Kill Unit that has been 86.3% effective in the postseason. Moving forward, Boston has played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning at least six straight games in a row. Furthermore, the Under is 3-1-1 in the Bruins’ last 5 games in the Stanley Cup Finals. Boston has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams that scored at least five goals in their last game. St. Louis has seen the Under go 20-7-3 in their last 30 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. The Blues have won three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. They preceded their Game Six victory over the Sharks with a 5-0 shutout win against them in Game Five of that series. St. Louis has played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after winning two straight games by at least two goals — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two straight games by at least three goals. The Blues have only allowed two combined goals over their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing one goal or less in three straight games. They are also getting outstanding goaltending with Jordan Binnington owning a 2.31 GAA along with a .914 save percentage in these playoffs. Binnington also owns a 0.67 GAA with a .974 save percentage over his last three starts. He has been helped by a blue-line that has not allowed a goal in 11 of their last 13 Power Play Kills (84.6%). St. Louis has played 24 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while the Blues’ have played only five games over the last fourteen days, they have then played12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing just their fifth game in fourteen days.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 15 of their last 23 opening games to a new series Under the Total. The Bruins have seen the Under go 15-6-5 in their last 26 playoff games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. Expect a lower-scoring game tonight with both teams dealing with the rust of six and eleven days off since last taking the ice against hostile competition. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (1) and the Boston Bruins (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-19 |
Yankees v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
7-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: New York (34-17) has won seven straight games in a row after sweeping yesterday’s double-header — winning Game One by a 7-3 score before winning the nightcap by a 6-5 score. Kansas City (17-34) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road. New York has seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Yankees have now seen the Over go 33-11-3 in their last 47 games on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 10 straight games Over the Total on the road as a favorite priced at -125 or higher. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to German who is 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.91 and 3.82 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road either as he has a 1.69 ERA with a .177 opponent’s batting average at home but a 3.45 ERA with a .193 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where German had a 5.20 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers rising to a 5.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 games on the road with German on the hill. And while the Yankees’ bullpen has pitched 14 innings over their last three games, New York has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Royals’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has seen the Over go 21-10-3 in their last 34 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 12-5-3 in the Royals’ last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Duffy who is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.88 and 4.25 moving forward. The left-hander has been less effective at home as well where he owns a 4.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in three starts as compared to his 2.13 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average of .239 on the road. Duffy struggled at home last year as well where he was saddled with a 6.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .276 opponent’s batting average of .276 as compared to his 3.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average at home. The Royals have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Duffy on the hill. And while he comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in Los Angeles against the Angels, KC has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when Duffy is pitching after an outing where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces the Bronx Bombers’ offensive juggernaut that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with .301 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .951 over that span. The Yankees are scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-0-1 in New York’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams when playing in Kansas City. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-21-19 |
Sharks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (25) and the St. Louis Blues (26). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (56-35-9) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Sunday with their 5-0 victory over San Jose (56-36-7). The Blues return home tonight as they attempt to close out this series to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Sharks are big money-line underdogs given the injury status of Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl, and Joe Pavelski. Reports this afternoon indicate Karlsson and Hertl did not make the trip to St. Louis with Pavelski still being a game-time decision (and, hence, I am comfortable making my call on this game with that updated information).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Jose has scored only one goal in the last two games since their controversial hand pass helped Karlsson score the winning goal in overtime in the third game of this series. The Sharks were still in a close game on Sunday midway through the second period before Hertl took a big hit that was not called for a penalty. Instead, Hertl was unable to return for the third period and joined both Pavelski and Karlsson in suffering game-ending injuries. Don’t read much into the final score where the Sharks allowed five goals as San Jose committed 32 minutes of penalties in the final 20 minutes of that game that was likely lost. The Sharks will be without at least two important pieces on offense with Karlsson and Hertl out. San Jose can only grind out a low-scoring game tonight. But don’t count them out — goaltender Martin Jones owns a sensational .943 save percentage in the four elimination games he has played this season which includes two overtime periods as he has stopped the 149 of the 158 shots he has faced which is a pretty large sample size. The Sharks have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. San Jose has also played 14 of their last 20 sixth games of a playoff series Under the Total. Additionally, the Sharks have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three goals. They have also played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than one goal in two straight games. The Under is also 3-1-1 in San Jose’s last five games on the road. St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a shutout victory — and they have played 6 of their last 8 Under the Total after allowing no more than one goal in two straight games. Additionally, not only have the Blues played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a shutout win on the road but they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least two goals — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three goals. Much of St. Louis’ success has come from not giving the Sharks’ too many chances with a man-advantage. The Blues have committed only 12 minor penalties in this series — and that has helped them allow only two Power Play goals in this series. The Under is 18-6-2 in St. Louis’ last 26 home games when a favorite priced in the -151 to -200 range — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 playoff games priced in the -151 to -200 range.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least four goals. The Sharks can win this game — but they need to focus most of their energies on stopping the Blues’ from scoring and make this a tight game in the third period where their experience gives them an edge. 25* NHL Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (25) and the St. Louis Blues (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-19-19 |
Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday. we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. THE SITUATION: Washington (18-26) has won three of the last four games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. Chicago (26-16) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Over go 15-7-1 in their last 23 third games of a series. The Over is a decisive 30-14-3 in their last 47 games at home — and the Over is also 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Washington has also played 36 of their last 57 home games Over the Total when playing at night. They give the ball to Hellickson who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 8.04 and 1.79 marks — and his opponents are hitting .299 when he is pitching in Washington. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Hellickson had a 4.50 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home as compared to his 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average when he was pitching on the road. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 home games with Hellickson on the hill — and Washington has played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Hellickson pitching when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .274 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Cubs have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road with the number set in that 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Hendricks who is 3-4 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not nearly as encouraging as those frontline numbers with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.13 and 3.86 respectively moving forward. And while the right-hander has been outstanding at home in Wrigley Field where he has a 0.62 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180, those numbers skyrocket to a 5.91 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .330 on the road in four starts.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Jeremy Hellickson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-19-19 |
Bucks v. Raptors OVER 219.5 |
Top |
112-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Toronto Raptors (550). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (70-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 125-103 victory as a 6-point favorite over Toronto (66-30). The Raptors host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. This Bucks team has won and covered the point spread in six straight games. Milwaukee has then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four straight contests. The Bucks have dominated the boards in this series as they have out-rebounded Toronto by 15 and 14 boards in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has then played 28 of their last 39 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last two foes by at least 10 rebounds. The Bucks have also held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting from the field — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after their last five opponents shot no better than 42% over that span. Now after playing their last three games on their home court, Milwaukee goes back on the road where they are scoring 116.8 PPG on 47% shooting from the field. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing their last three games at home. Milwaukee has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog. Toronto has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last eight contests, the Raptors have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after they have failed to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Toronto shot just 42.5% from the field on Friday — but they return home where they are scoring 113.8 PPG while making 47.4% of their shot attempts. The Raptors have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them playing three of these last four situations Over the Total when playing on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has lost their last three encounters with the Bucks — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. The Raptors have also played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Toronto Raptors (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-19 |
Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 |
Top |
103-125 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (69-23) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday with their 108-100 victory over Toronto (66-29). The Bucks host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks won this game despite shooting just 39.8% from the field which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games. The seven-day break they experienced after defeating the Celtics in five games resulted in some cold shooters for this Milwaukee team. The Bucks made only 11 of their 44 shots from behind the arc for a 25% shooting clip which was well below their 35.8% percentage when playing at home. Milwaukee scores a robust 119.0 PPG when playing at home given their up-tempo pace and their 47.8% field goal percentage. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Milwaukee should be primed for a better shooting effort tonight as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, the Bucks have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row (as they have after dropping Game One of their series with Boston. Milwaukee has also played 4 straight second games of a playoff series Over the Total. And while the Bucks have not allowed their last three opponents shoot better than 37.8% from the floor, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 42% of their shots in three straight games. Toronto entered the fourth quarter of Game One with 83 points but only Kyrie Lowery managed to score a field goal in those final 12 minutes of play with Kawhi Leonard showing signs of fatigue by missing all three of his field goal attempts during that span. The Raptors shot just 37% from the field which was the lowest shooting effort in their last six games. Toronto has played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 range — and this includes them playing five of these last eight situations Over the Total. The Raptors have also played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total when an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 6 playoff games in the second game of the series, Toronto played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors have played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. And while Toronto has lost the last two games between these two teams, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when looking to avenge at least two straight losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-19 |
Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (15) and the Carolina Hurricanes (16). THE SITUATION: Boston (60-29-9) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 2-1 victory on the road at Carolina (54-35-7). The Hurricanes look to stave off elimination tonight as they host Game Four tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Carolina has scored only five goals in the first three games of this series. Much of this can be blamed on their struggling Power Play as the Hurricanes have failed to score in eleven straight opportunities with the man-advantage in this series. Overall, Carolina has scored only 5 Power Play goals in their 50 opportunities for a 10% success rate in this postseason. But the Hurricanes are also facing a red hot goaltender in Tuukka Rask. The Bruins have won six straight games with Rask sporting a 1.50 Goals-Against-Average over that span while stopping 196 of the 205 shots he has faced in those six games for a sensational .956 save percentage. Carolina came out on fire on Tuesday as they peppered Rask with 20 shots. But after Rask stopped every one of those shot attempts, this Hurricanes team look frustrated as they fell behind then by a 2-0 score before narrowing that game to a one-goal deficit before finally losing that game. Carolina probably took from that game that they cannot expect to win high scoring games with this Bruins team — so they will likely be looking to eke out a low-scoring game. The Hurricanes have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal on their home ice. Carolina has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing three straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after losing at least three in a row. And while this is the Hurricanes’ fifth game in the last fourteen days, they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. Carolina will likely stick with Curtis McElhinney between the pipes after he stopped 29 of the 31 shots he faced on Tuesday. The Hurricanes are allowing only 2.5 Goals-Per-Game when playing at home. Boston is allowing only 2.1 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have given up just 1.6 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games. The Bruins have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by just one goal. Boston has also played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two goals in their last game. And while the Bruins have won six straight games in a row, they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 30 of their last 47 games Under the Total when playing at least two straight games away from home. The Bruins have also played 15 of their last 23 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. And in their last 26 games in the playoffs when favored priced in the -110 to -150 price range, the Under is 15-6-5.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least one goal. The Hurricanes have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (15) and the Carolina Hurricanes (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-19 |
Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
94-116 |
Win
|
101 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (533) and the Golden State Warriors (534). THE SITUATION: Portland (61-33) advanced to the Western Conference Finals on Sunday with their 100-96 upset victory in Denver as a 5.5-point underdog. Golden State (65-29) reached the Western Conference Finals two days earlier on Friday when they upset Houston on the road by a 118-113 sore as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors stepped up without Kevin Durant on Friday as they made 49.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But this team will miss Durant’s scoring ability as he will likely miss the first few games of this series. Stephen Curry was outstanding in the second half by scoring 33 points — but he did not score in a first half where Golden State got surprising scoring contributions from their reserves. Curry and Klay Thompson have been inconsistent in these playoffs. This team is making only 46.4% of their shots over their last five games which is far below their 49.0% field goal percentage for the season. The Warriors have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Golden State has also played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Warriors return home where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 36 of their last 58 home games Under the Total when favored in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Additionally, Golden State has played 5 straight games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors are making 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc — and Portland has played 41 of their last 68 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 36% from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers have stepped up their play on the defensive end of the court. They held the Nuggets to just 37.1% shooting on Sunday after limiting them to a 38.4% field goal percentage in Game Six of that series. Portland has held their last five opponents to a 42.9% field goal percentage which is a few clicks better than their 45.3% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. But the Blazers are making only 42.4% of their shots over their last five games which is a bit below their 46.4% field goal percentage for the year. Portland will also likely be without their super sub, Rodney Hood, who has been downgraded to being doubtful given the knee injury he suffered in Sunday’s game. The Trail Blazers have also played 12 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: This is Golden State’s fourth game in the last ten days — and in games involving teams who have won five or six of their last seven games and is now playing just their fourth game (or less) in the last ten days, these games finished Under the Total in 435 of the last 764 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (533) and the Golden State Warriors (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-19 |
Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (7) and the San Jose Sharks (8). THE SITUATION: San Jose (55-33-7) won the opening game of this series on Saturday with their 6-3 victory over St. Louis (53-34-9). The Sharks host the second game of this series Monday night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: San Jose has been an offensive juggernaut on their home ice. They are scoring 3.7 Goals-Per-Game at home and they are back at full strength with their leading scorer, Joe Pavelski, back on the ice after he missed the first six games of last round’s series with Colorado. Most of those games’ Totals were set at 6 despite Pavelski still recovering from the head injury he suffered in the third period of their Game Seven with Vegas in the opening round of the playoffs — so grabbing a 5.5 is a nice opportunity for this situation. The Sharks have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. This is San Jose’s third straight game at home after they disposed of the Avalanche in seven games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. Furthermore, the Sharks have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total. Additionally, San Jose has played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. And in their last 4 games in the Western Conference Finals, the Sharks have played all 4 of these games Over the Total. St. Louis has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. The Blues stay on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. And in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog, the Over is 3-0-1.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose is going to score their share of goals on home ice at the SAP Center. With the Blues needing to win this game to avoid an undesirable 0-2 deficit when they return to St. Louis to play Games Three and Four, look for them to be very aggressive in trying to score goals. 25* NHL Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (7) and the San Jose Sharks (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-19 |
Brewers v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (24-18) has lost two straight games after their 4-1 loss in Chicago last night against the Cubs. Philadelphia (23-16) has won two straight games with their 6-1 victory in Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 11 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Nola who is 3-0 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home this season given his 3.77 ERA in five starts. Nola had a 2.34 ERA at home last year. After a slow start, Nola has looked like the pitcher who concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three starts. Over his last four starts, Nola has a 2.25 ERA while striking out 26 batters in 24 innings of work over that span. The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total with Nola pitching as a favorite priced at least at -150. The Under is also 18-5-2 in Philadelphia’s last 25 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. He faces a Brewers team that is hitting just .218 on the road with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 — and their slugger, Ryan Braun, is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss. The Brewers gave up more than three runs for the first time in nine games last night — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. And while Milwaukee’s bullpen has thrown 13 1/3 innings over their last three games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after their pen combined to throw at least 13 innings in their last three games. The Brewers stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 27 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The counter with Peralta who is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in six games. After Peralta was used after an opener in his last outing against Washington where he allowed only three hits and no runs in 5 innings of work, manager Craig Counsell will have him start in the first inning tonight. He has been better on the road where he has a 0.97 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Peralta pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. The Under is 15-5-1 in the Phillies’ last 21 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 17games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting only .225 over their last seven games with a .312 On-Batting Average and an OPS of .638 over that span. Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Monday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-19 |
Hurricanes v. Bruins OVER 5.5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
115 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 3:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (5) and the Boston Bruins (6). THE SITUATION: Boston (58-29-9) won the first game of this series on Thursday with their 5-2 victory over Carolina (54-33-7). The Bruins host the second game of this series this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston entered the third period of that game trailing by a 2-1 score before scoring three times to win that game easily. The Bruins have scored at least three goals in four straight games — and they have totaled 16 goals scored in those four contests. They should keep it up this afternoon as they are scoring 3.4 Goals-Per-Game on their home ice. This team is getting it down with their Power Play after scoring twice with a man-advantage in Game One of this series. Boston has scored 12 Power Play goals in these playoffs in their 40 opportunities with the man-advantage for a 30% success rate that is tops of all teams in the playoffs. The Bruins have won four straight games after winning their six-game series at Columbus by a 3-0 score. Boston has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning two straight games by at least two goals — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by at least three goals. The Bruins have also played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. And in their last 5 playoff games when favored in the -151 to -200 price range, the Over is 4-0-1. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss by at least three goals. The Hurricanes have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Carolina should get their offense cranking in this important game for them to steal since they do not want to return to Charlotte with a 2-0 deficit. They are scoring 3.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. However, they are also allowing 2.9 Goals-Per-Game when playing on the road. The Hurricanes have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. Additionally, Carolina has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least three goals. Furthermore, the Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams — and this includes four straight Overs when playing in Boston. 25* NHL Third Round NBC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (5) and the Boston Bruins (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-10-19 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
118-113 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Houston Rockets (520). THE SITUATION: Golden State (59-33) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 104-99 victory at home over Houston (59-33) as a 6-point underdog. This series moves back to the Rockets’ Toyota Center tonight for Game Six with Houston looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The calf injury that Kevin Durant suffered in the second half of this game that will keep him out the rest of this series is the most important intangible in handicapping this game. The Warriors will be looking to re-invent their Splash Brothers offense of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson circa the 2015-16 season before they signed Kevin Durant as a free agent. I do expect Golden State to attempt to play at a faster pace as their offense has tended to slow down to adapt to Durant’s isolation game in the half-court. But that all said, I do not expect the efficiency of the Warriors offense to significantly improve — especially without the luxury of having Durant that head coach Steve Kerr describes as the ultimate weapon. For starters, neither Curry nor Thompson are not in great form. Thomson’s series high is 27 points while he has only connected on thirteen shots from behind the arc in all five games. Curry has reached 30 points just once in this series while not nailing more than five 3-pointers in a game in this series while he seems to be slowed by a hyperextended left finger along with a right ankle issue. Furthermore, those pre-Durant Golden State teams had a better set of complementary offensive pieces (such as Harrison Barnes and a more productive Draymond Green on offense) than this current group that began the season banking on big contributions from DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets have been doing a great job of defending Curry and Thompson in this series. Chris Paul remains a strong on-the-ball defender but what this Houston team has after him is a slew of guards with size whose length can mess with the Splash Brothers: James Harden is 6’5, Eric Gordon is 6’4, Austin Rivers is 6’4, Iman Shumpert is 6’5, Gerard Green is 6’7, and P.J. Tucker is 6’6. What head coach Mike D’Antoni chooses to do with Tucker will be particularly interesting since he has been relieved of being the primary defender on Durant for the Rockets. Frankly, Houston also has three more years of experience under their belts defending the Splash Brothers’ offense that a number of teams have copy-catted as they embraced up-tempo offensive systems that emphasize launching tons of 3s. And this Rockets team has steadily improved in their defensive play due to some important reconfigurations of their roster along with the continued work of their defensive guru in assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik. Houston boasted the second best Defensive Rating in the NBA over the last fifteen games of the regular season — and they have held their opponents in the playoffs to just 43.3% shooting from the field which has resulted in a -5.2 drop in points they are allowing per game from the 113.3 PPG they gave up in the regular season. Golden State typically plays harder on defense when they are away from home as well — they hold their home hosts to just 43.7% shooting as compared to the 44.4% overall mark this year. The Under is 10-2-1 in the Warriors’ last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Golden State has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Warriors’ last 27 games when playing with one day of rest. The Under is 18-5-2 in Houston’s last 26 games when playing with just one day of rest. Houston has also seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The Rockets have only reached their 117.7 PPG scoring average once in this series with it being evident that Chris Paul is not the same offensive player that he once was. Paul is making only 45% of his midrange jump shots in these playoffs — and the 58% shooting inside feet of the basket is a few notches below the 61% mark he enjoyed in last year’s Western Conference Finals. Houston returns home where the Under is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when looking to stave off elimination in a playoff series. They will dedicate their defensive energies in stopping Curry and Thompson to dare the Warriors to rely on their secondary scorers. The Under is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams when playing in Houston. 25* NBA Second Round ESPN Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Houston Rockets (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-08-19 |
Avalanche v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
109 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (27) and the San Jose Sharks (28). THE SITUATION: Colorado (45-34-14) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Monday with their 4-3 victory in overtime at home against San Jose (53-33-7). The Sharks host Game Seven in their SAP Center.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by just one goal. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored at least four goals — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least three goals. The Under is also 11-3-2 overall in the Avalanche’s last 16 games after a victory — and the Under is 13-4-2 in Colorado’s last 19 games when playing with one day of rest. The Avalanche’s offense has slowed down in this series as they have scored just 2.8 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contest as compared to their 3.2 Goals-Per-Game scoring average for the season. Now Colorado goes back on the road where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the Avalanche have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. Colorado has also played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. San Jose has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. The Sharks offense has also slowed down as this series has moved forward as they are scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games as opposed to their 3.5 Goals-Per-Game scoring average for the season. San Jose has also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total bouncing back from an overtime loss.
FINAL TAKE: Two of the last three games in this series have seen just three combined goals scored. Look for this to be another lower scoring game. 25* NHL Second Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (27) and the San Jose Sharks (28). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-07-19 |
Stars v. Blues UNDER 5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (23) and the St. Louis Blues (24). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (52-33-9) forced a climactic seventh game of this series on Sunday with their 4-1 win on the road at Dallas (50-37-7). This series returns to St. Louis tonight with the Blues hosting Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Stars should tighten things up on defense after surrendering four goals on Sunday. They are still giving up only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs. Dallas has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three goals. Furthermore, the Stars have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total on the road after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least two goals. Dallas has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after conceding at least four goals in their last game. The Stars goalie, Ben Bishop, left Game Six after taking a slap shot in his collarbone. He will be good to go to play tonight and should bounce-back after surrendering four goals on Sunday. Bishop entered Game Six with a 2.13 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage in the playoffs. Bishop has been the best goaltender in the NHL this season as he carried Dallas in the second half of the season with a 1.15 GAA along with a .962 save percentage. Bishop also has Game Seven experience as he has pitched two shutouts in his previous two Game Seven opportunities in his career. He has helped the Stars be sensational when playing undermanned in these playoffs. Dallas has successfully thwarted 33 of the 35 Power Play they have faced in this postseason for a .942 Power Play Kill rate. He will need to be outstanding tonight since the Stars score only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game when on the road. The Under is 17-6-5 in Dallas’ last 28 games on the road. The Under is also 11-3-3 in the Stars’ last 17 games as an underdog priced in the +110 +150 price range. St. Louis has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least two goals. The Blues have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game — and the Under is 18-7-3 in their last 28 games when facing an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last contest. Their rookie goaltender, Jordan Bennington, stepped up on Sunday by stopping 22 of the 23 shots he faced. Bennington was spectacular in the second half of the season with a 1.90 GAA with a .928 save percentage in twenty-three regular season starts after the All-Star Break. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as a home favorite. The Blues have also played 13 of their last 20 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least two goals — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams when playing in St. Louis. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (23) and the St. Louis Blues (24). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-07-19 |
Barcelona FC v. Liverpool OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Barcelona (224209) and Liverpool (224210). THE S|TUATION: Barcelona won the first leg of the two-leg Champions League Semifinals with a 3-0 win over Liverpool last Wednesday. The second-leg match moves to Liverpool’s home field at Anfield Stadium. The Reds must at least three goals to stay alive to advance to the Finals. A 3-0 Liverpool victory in regulation time forces two fifteen minute extra periods — and if things are still tied after that, then the match (and Champions League Finalist) will be decided by a shootout. With the first tie-breaker being goals scored on the road, Barcelona advances to the Finals even with a 4-1 loss since their one goal scored on the road is more than Liverpool’s zero goals scored last week. Liverpool advances to the Finals with a victory by at least four goals in regulation time.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Liverpool needs to score at least three goals to keep their Champions League aspirations alive. The problem for manager Jurgen Klopp is that he will be without two of his top strikers. Roberto Firmino has been dealing with a groin injury — and while he was a substitute in last Wednesday’s first-leg, he did not play in the Reds English Premier League match over the weekend. He does not fit to play this afternoon. Mohamed Salah also will be out this afternoon after receiving a knock in their Saturday match against Newcastle United which has him in the concussion protocol. Liverpool will push forward — they still have a prolific goal scorer in Sadio Mane while also possessing a group of talented defensemen who are comfortable playing up on the pitch to score goals. Look for Klopp to deploy the high-press system he relied on last season. This approach creates scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but it also leaves his defense vulnerable when these tactics fail. Klopp dialed back this approach this season to make the Reds more defensive in their tactics — but this situation calls for uber-aggressiveness. Barcelona is a pragmatic side this season — but they will not be resting on their laurels in this contest. Manager Ernesto Valverde has indicated he wants his team playing aggressively as well — if and when they score, it forces Liverpool to have to score five goals to win this match given the tie-breaker situation. Furthermore, with the Catalans featuring Lionel Messi on the pitch, he is capable of scoring from anywhere at any time.
FINAL TAKE: It is very difficult to expect the Reds to generate a clean sheet against Messi and this Barcelona side. I do think an aggressive Liverpool scores at least twice in this rematch (even without Salah and Firmino). 25* Champions League Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Barcelona (224209) and Liverpool (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-19 |
Bucks v. Celtics OVER 219 |
Top |
113-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Boston Celtics (502). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (66-23) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 123-116 upset win at Boston (54-35) as a 2-point underdog. The Celtics host the fourth game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road after a win by at least 20 points. Milwaukee has also played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bucks have played 24 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee stays on the road where they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against a team with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Boston has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. And while Boston has lost the last two games in this series, they have then played 8 straight home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three contests. Additionally, the Celtics have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. And in their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road, Boston has played 7 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 18-7-1 in their last 26 games when playing in Boston. The Celtics have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* NBA Monday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Boston Celtics (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-05-19 |
Blues v. Stars OVER 5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (5) and the Dallas Stars (6). THE SITUATION: Dallas (50-36-7) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Friday with their 2-1 victory at St. Louis (51-33-9). The Stars return home to attempt to close out this series on their home ice.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues will be playing with desperation this afternoon with their season hanging in the balance. St. Louis averages 3.0 Goals-Per-Game this season but they have managed only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. The Blues need to get their Power Play going as they have only scored twice in their sixteen opportunities with the man advantage against the Stars in this series. They should be scoring more than that 12.3% clip considering that they scored five goals in their nineteen chances on the Power Play in their opening round series against Winnipeg for a 26.3% clip. St. Louis has seen a regression in their rookie goaltender, Jordan Binnington, in these playoffs. After posting a 1.90 Goals-Against-Average with a .928 save percentage in his last twenty-three regular season starts after the All-Star Break, Binnington has 2.73 GAA along with a .908 save percentage in these playoffs. The Blues have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after playing their last two games against a Central Division rival. The Over is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. St. Louis has also played 4 straight games Over the Total with the number set at 5 or less. Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing their last three games against divisional foes — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning two straight games against Central Division opponents. The Stars have found their offense as they have scored 3.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Dallas has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home with the Total set at 5 or less. And the Over is 8-2-3 in the Stars’ last 13 games when favored in the -110 t0 -150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: This is been a higher scoring series with only Game Five seeing less than five combined goals scored and three of these contests seeing at least six combined goals were scored. 25* NHL Second Round NBC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (5) and the Dallas Stars (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-19 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 221 |
Top |
121-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (589) and the Houston Rockets (590). THE SITUATION: Golden State (63-27) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 115-109 victory over Houston (57-32) as a 5.5-point favorite. The Rockets host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest between contests. They return home where the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games — and they have also played 5 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Rockets’ have more than an 0-2 deficit to be concerned about after James Harden got his eyes raked on Tuesday. While Harden will play, he indicates that he is still feeling the effects of that injury. Houston made 46.8% of their shots in Game Two which was actually the best field goal percentage in their last five games. The Rockets have been thriving in the last quarter of the regular season by significantly ramping up their play on the defensive end of the court. Over the last fifteen games of the regular season, Houston had the fourth best Defensive Rating in the NBA. In these playoffs, the Rockets are allowing only 101.1 PPG along with a 42.3% field goal percentage which is far below the 108.5 PPG they are allowing for the season along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.3%. In their last five playoff games, Houston is holding their opponents to just 100.8 PPG on 41.3% shooting from the field. The Rockets have played a decisive 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Golden State is not often the underdog — the two-time defending NBA champions usually tighten things up on the defensive end of the court when their victory is not a foregone conclusion (in their minds). The Warriors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when they were the underdog — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Golden State has played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The 46.8% shooting percentage that Houston executed on Tuesday was the highest field goal percentage that the Warriors had allowed in their last three games. When playing on the road, Golden State holds its home hosts to just a 43.6% field goal percentage.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. And despite the high Totals that typically are associated with these two high scoring teams, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Second Round Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (589) and the Houston Rockets (590). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-04-19 |
Liverpool v. Newcastle United UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200181) and Newcastle United (200182). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (28-7-1) enters this English Premier League match coming off a 5-0 victory at home over Huddersfield in their last EPL match last Friday. Newcastle United (11-9-6) comes off a 1-1 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion in their last match last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These are precarious times for Liverpool as they followed up their match with Huddersfield with the first leg of their Champions League Semifinals showdown with Barcelona which ended in a 3-0 loss. The Reds host the second leg of that contest midweek — so manager Jurgen Klopp will be keeping one eye with that impending rematch with his need to conserve the energy of his key players. Klopp does not need a blowout victory. However, Liverpool absolutely must generate the three points with a victory in this match to keep up their championship aspirations in the EPL as they are one point behind Manchester City. Things could get nervy for this team to register a goal. Before facing the bottom-feeder team in the league in Huddersfield who are already mathematically eliminated from not being relegated, the Reds had scored more than two goals just twice in their last five EPL matches. Liverpool’s offensive proficiency has been particularly slowed down when they are playing on the road away from Anfield. In their last nine EPL matches on the road, the Reds have scored more than two goals only once. Liverpool has still enjoyed great success because they have developed into an outstanding defensive team under Klopp. The acquisition of defenseman Virgil Van Dijk in last year’s winter transfer window has certainly played a huge role in their defensive transformation as he perhaps been the Most Valuable Player in the EPL. The Reds have allowed only 20 goals this season which is the lowest number in the league. Liverpool has allowed only ten goals in their 18 EPL matches on the road. And in their thirteen road games against the non-Big Six EPL sides, the Reds have surrendered a mere 5 goals. But also keep in mind that Liverpool has scored only 26 goals in those thirteen matches for flat 2.0 Goals-Per-Game average. Newcastle is a difficult opponent who plays a compact system that can be difficult to penetrate. The Magpies are happy to grind out low-scoring matches where they find scoring opportunities in cautious counter-attacking moments. Newcastle is in good form right now — they are 2-1-0 in their last three matches where they have allowed only two goals. In their last six matches on their home field at St. James Park, the Magpies have allowed only five goals — and they have conceded just 22 goals in their eighteen home matches this season. Newcastle has scored 22 goals in those eighteen home matches as well. Digging deeper, the Magpies have scored only nine goals in their eleven matches against one of the Big Six teams in the EPL — and they have conceded only nine goals in their five home matches against one of those Top Six EPL sides this season.
FINAL TAKE: Newcastle usually plays Liverpool tough — they have only lost once in their last seven home matches against the Reds. Liverpool will be cautious in this contest and will be very content with a 1-0 victory. While the Magpies are not likely to score a goal, the Reds are not likely to find the back of the net more than twice. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200181) and Newcastle United (200182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-19 |
Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215 |
Top |
137-140 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (587) and the Portland Trail Blazers (588). THE SITUATION: Portland (58-31) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 97-90 upset victory over Denver (59-32) as a 4-point underdog. The Trail Blazers host the third and fourth of games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets pulled the upset over the Trail Blazers in the opening game of this series by nailing 40.4% of their 3-pointers en route to a 50.6% shooting percentage for that game. It was a much different story in Game Two as they made only 6 of their 29 shots from behind the arc for a dismal 20.7% shooting percentage from 3-point land. Their 34.7% field goal percentage in that game was their lowest mark of the entire season. Denver has played 25 of their last 43 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Nuggets have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, Denver goes back on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. The Nuggets score 107.4 PPG on the road — and they allowed 110.1 PPG in those contests. Denver has played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Portland has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory over a fellow Northwest Division rival — and this includes them play those last four situations Over the Total. The Over is also 21-8-2 in the Trail Blazers’ last 31 games when playing with one day of rest. Now Portland returns home where they are scoring 117.8 PPG on 47.7% shooting from the field. The Blazers pulled off their upset on Wednesday despite making only 42.4% of their shots. The Nuggets’ 34.7% field goal percentage in that game was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in Portland’s last 79 games. The Blazers allow their visitors to shoot 45% from the field which generates 109.3 PPG. The Over is 16-4-1 in Portland’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Blazers have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games played in Portland Over the Total. 25* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (587) and the Portland Trail Blazers (588). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-19 |
Bucks v. Celtics OVER 219 |
Top |
123-116 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (585) and the Boston Celtics (586). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (65-23) evened this series at 1-1 on Tuesday with their 123-102 victory over the Celtics. Boston (54-34) hosts Games Three and Four of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points. They now go on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Boston has played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Celtics shot just 39.5% from the field on Tuesday which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last five games. They return home where they are making 47% of their shots en route to 113.0 PPG. Boston has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 38 of their last 57 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. Lastly, the Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these two teams in Boston. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (585) and the Boston Celtics (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-19 |
Raptors v. 76ers OVER 216.5 |
Top |
95-116 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (581) and the Philadelphia 76ers (582). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-33) evened this series at 1-1 on Monday with their 94-89 upset victory at Toronto (63-26) as a 7.5-point underdog. The 76ers return home to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games after a victory by 6 points or less. The 76ers have also played 5 of their last 7 games over the Total when playing with two days of rest — and that extra day of rest should help Joel Embiid be ready to play this game as he deals with knee injuries. Philadelphia held the Raptors to just a 36.3% shooting percentage on Monday which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 41 games. But the Sixers also shot just 39.5% from the field in that low-scoring game. Now Philly returns home where they are scoring 118.6 PPG on the strength of 48.5% shooting from the field. The 76ers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Toronto’s 36.3% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last 53 games. They also missed 27 shots from behind the arc on Monday — they should improve significantly on that resulting 27% mark from 3-point land tonight considering that they are making 36.6% of their shots from behind the arc on the road. The Raptors are averaging 113.2 PPG when playing on the road. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Toronto has also played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, in Toronto’s last 18 games overall in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Raptors have played 13 of these games Over the Total. And in their last 13 games in the Eastern Conference Playoff Semifinals, Toronto has played 9 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road when avenging a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings in Toronto Over the Total. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (581) and the Philadelphia 76ers (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-01-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 219 |
Top |
97-90 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (577) and the Denver Nuggets (578). THE SITUATION: Denver (59-31) won the opening game of this series on Monday with their 121-113 victory over Portland (57-31). The Nuggets host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The silver lining for the Trail Blazers in Game One was that Enes Kanter was able to play despite a shoulder injury that had him questionable. Kanter played 33 minutes which allowed him to score 26 points while making 11 of his 14 shots. He is more of an offensive threat than Jusuf Nurkic who is out the season with an ankle injury. The problem for the Blazers with Kanter absorbing Nurkic’s minutes is that he is a liability on the defensive end of the court. Denver’s Nikola Jokic exploited him by scoring 37 points on 11 of 18 shooting while pulling down 9 rebounds. Kanter’s presence on both ends of the court has generated higher scoring games — and bettors have yet to catch up. Portland has played 27 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Blazers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Over is 21-7-2 in Portland’s last 30 games when playing with one day of rest. And while this the Blazers just second game in the last seven days after they dismissed Oklahoma City in five games, they have played 4 straight games when playing their second game in seven days. Portland has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow Northwest Division opponents. Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against Northwest Division foes. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Nuggets increase their offensive proficiency when playing at home — they are scoring 113.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting from the field at the Pepsi Center as compared to their 110.4 PPG scoring overall on 46.6% shooting this season. Denver has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 straight Overs — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing in Denver. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (577) and the Denver Nuggets (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-19 |
Rockets v. Warriors OVER 220.5 |
Top |
109-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (573) and the Golden State Warriors (574). THE SITUATION: Golden State (62-27) won the opening game of this series on Sunday with their 104-100 victory over Houston (57-31). The Warriors host the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State smoked this Rockets team who had been playing good defense by making 50.7% of their shots on Sunday. The Warriors have a 49.2% field goal percentage at home in the Oracle Center which has translated into 118.2 PPG. Over their last five games, Golden State is making 50% of their shots — and they are shooting 50.3% from the field so far in these playoffs. This shapes up to be a high-scoring game as the Warriors have played 8 of their last 9 second games to a new playoff series Over the Total. Golden State has also played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total when leading in a playoff series — and this includes them playing three of these last four games Over the Total when leading in that playoff series. Houston should shoot better than the 41.9% field goal percentage they endured in the opening game of this series. The Rockets have played four straight games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing four straight games Under the Total. Houston averages 110.2 PPG when playing on the road. The Rockets have also been out-rebounded by 13, 14, and 14 boards in each of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded in their last three games by at least 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. Houston has also played 14 of their last 21 second games in a new playoff series Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen their last three games finish Under the Total — but the first game these two teams played in 2019 was in the Oracle Center where the Rockets won by a 135-134 score. After Game One finished Under the Total by more than 20 points, look for this game to finish Over the Total. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (573) and the Golden State Warriors (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 215 |
Top |
113-121 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). THE SITUATION: Portland (57-30) takes the court again for the first time since last Tuesday after they disposed of Oklahoma City in five games with their 118-115 win as a 3.5-point favorite. Denver (58-31) defeated San Antonio on Sunday by a 90-86 score as a 6.5-point favorite to win that series in seven games. The Nuggets host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and the Over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Portland launched 96 shots in that game after attempting 90 shots in Game Four of that series. The Blazers have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. Portland now goes back on the road where they are scoring 111.0 PPG while also allowing 111.0 PPG. The Trail Blazers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. The Nuggets shot just 39.8% from the field in that game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. Denver survived because they limited the Spurs to shooting only 36.5% which was the best defensive effort in their last sixteen games. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Denver stays at home where they are scoring 113.0 PPG this season on 48.2% shooting from the field — and they are making 48.3% of their shots in the playoffs. The Nuggets have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 encounters Over the Total when playing in Denver. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-19 |
Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6 |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:38 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (53) and the San Jose Sharks (54). THE SITUATION: San Jose (51-30-7) won the opening game of this series on Friday with their 5-2 victory over Colorado (42-32-14). The Sharks host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: San Jose has played 13 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after a win by at least two goals. The Sharks have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two goals in their last game. San Jose is scoring 3.7 Goals-Per-Game on their home ice this season — and they have generated ten goals over their last two games. The Sharks have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in two straight games. But this San Jose team is also allowing 2.9 Goals-Per-Game at home this season with their tendency to have their offensive-minded defensemen, Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson, play aggressively up the ice. In the playoffs, the Sharks are allowing 3.4 Goals-Per-Game. The Sharks stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. San Jose has also played 5 straight games Over the Total in the playoffs as the favorite. Colorado has played 31 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. The Avalanche had won four straight games in their series with Calgary before dropping Game One of this series — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. This is Colorado’s fifth game over the last fourteen days — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing no more than five games in the last fourteen days.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost their last five meetings with the Sharks — and they have played 37 of their last 57 games Over the Total when playing with at least double-revenge. The Over is also 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in San Jose. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (53) and the San Jose Sharks (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-19 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 222.5 |
Top |
95-108 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Philadelphia 76ers (553) and the Toronto Raptors (554). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-32) has won four straight games after they disposed of Brooklyn in five games culminating in a 122-100 victory at home on Tuesday as a 9.5-point favorite. Toronto (62-35) has won four straight games as well after taking care of Orlando in five games after their 115-96 victory at home over the Magic on Tuesday as an 11-point favorite. The Raptors host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 76ers have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a victory by at least 20 points over a fellow Atlantic Division rival — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total after winning their last two games against divisional foes. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. The Sixers held the Nets to just 38.7% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last twenty games. Philadelphia did not let Brooklyn shoot better than 41.1% from the field in the last three games of that series — but they have then played a decisive 46 of their last 72 games Over the Total after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. Furthermore, the Sixers controlled the boards in their series against the Nets as they out-rebounded them by at least 7 rebounds per game in all five games of that series. Philly has then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last five opponents by at least 5.0 RPG. Moving forward, the 76ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Toronto has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Raptors have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Toronto has also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Raptors also played very good defense in their opening series as well — they have not allowed their last seven opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. But Toronto has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after not allowing at least three straight opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 14 meetings Over the Total — and this includes them playing 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. Expect these team trends to continue tonight in this opening game of this Eastern Conference Semifinals series. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between the Philadelphia 76ers (553) and the Toronto Raptors (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-19 |
Stars v. Blues OVER 5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
115 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (41) and the St. Louis Blues (42). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (50-30-9) won the opening game of this series on Thursday with their 3-2 victory over Dallas (47-35-9). The Blues host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: St. Louis has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a win over a fellow Central Division rival — and they have also played six straight games at home Over the Total after a victory over a divisional foe. Furthermore, the Blues have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a win on their home ice. Additionally, St. Louis has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a narrow victory by just one goal. The Blues have played three straight games that concluded with 3-2 scores which makes taking the Over seem like a safe investment with a Push being the worst case scenario. St. Louis has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by just one goal. The Blues score 3.2 Goals-Per-Game on home ice this season — but they are also allowing 3.0 Goals-Per-Game at home. In defeating Winnipeg in six games last round, St, Louis converted on 5 of their 19 Power Play opportunities which translated into an impressive 26.3% success rate. Dallas has seen at least five combined goals scored in four of their last five games. While the Stars have been an Under machine for much of the season, they have quietly players 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the month of April. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 5. Over their last five games, the Stars are scoring 3.2 Goals-Per-Game. When playing on the road, Dallas allows 2.6 Goals-Per-Game. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-7 in the Stars’ last 16 playoff games as a money-line underfoot priced in the +110 to +150 range. The Over is also 3-0-4 in the Stars’ last 7 games in the Western Conference Playoff Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set at 5, the worst case scenario is likely another 3-2 final score — but I do think both teams find the back of the net three times (or perhaps this game ends with a 4-2 score). 25* NHL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (41) and the St. Louis Blues (42). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Avalanche v. Sharks UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (5) and the San Jose Sharks (6). THE SITUATION: Colorado (42-31-14) takes the ice again after winning four straight games to dispatch of Calgary in five games with their 5-1 win on the road last Friday. San Jose (50-30-7) has won three straight games after surviving their seven-game series with Vegas on Sunday with their 5-4 victory in overtime. The Sharks host the first two games of this seven-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sharks rallied from being down 3-1 in that series with the Golden Knights to eke out the last two games in that series in overtime. San Jose has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after going to overtime in their last two contests — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by just one goal against a Pacific Division rival. The Sharks have also played 71 of their last 111 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least four goals. Remember, that Game Seven was looking like another shutout in that series for goalie Marc-Andre Fleury before that controversial call on Vegas when Joe Pavelski was double-hit and fell to the ice where his head started bleeding. Replays strongly suggest that the second hit from Paul Stastny was an inadvertent bump — but the five-minute major that was called on the Golden Knights resulted in a five-minute power play where the Sharks scored four times with the man-advantage to jumpstart their offense. Perhaps the most important development during that series was the improved play of goalie Martin Jones. After allowing 13 goals on 80 shots for a rough .838 save percentage in the first four games of that series, he stopped 122 of the next 129 shots he faced for a sparkling .946 save percentage in those three elimination games which included over two full periods of overtime hockey. San Jose was converting on only 4 of their 29 (13.8%) of their Power Play chances in that series before that miraculous five-minute Power Play on Sunday. But the ripple effect from that game will be felt tonight with Pavelski being declared out for Game One as he recovers from that head injury. Not only will the Sharks miss his 38 goals in the regular season, but head coach Peter DeBoer moved him to the second-line help provide his team more depth. Colorado has seen the Under go 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. The Avalanche has also scored at least three goals in four straight games — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games. Colorado has a dynamic first line of forwards led by Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. But what the Sharks got better at in their series with Vegas was contain their elite line of Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and Statsny which they checked with the defensive pairing of Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Brent Burns — and DeBoer has final choice regarding what players to put on the ice as the home team so he can ensure that top pair will combat MacKinnon and company. After losing by a 5-0 score in Game Four, the Sharks allowed only seven goals in the remaining three games in that series which went around 220 minutes of ice time when accounting for overtimes. What was underappreciated about the Avalanche in the first round was their strong defensive play against the Flames as they allowed only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game in those five games while not allowing more than two goals in those last four games. They stay on the road where the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games — and the Under is also 3-0-1 in Colorado’s last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on home ice.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 6th where San Jose won at home by a 5-2 margin. The Avalanche have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least three goals. 25* NHL Bailout Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (5) and the San Jose Sharks (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Rockies v. Braves UNDER 9 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-113 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. THE SITUATION: Colorado (11-14) enters this series having won eight of their last ten games with their 9-1 victory over Washington on Wednesday. Atlanta (12-11) has lost two of their last three games after a 4-2 loss at Cincinnati yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after an off day. Now this team goes on the road where the Under is 22-6-3 in their last 31 games. They give the ball to Senzatela who is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in two starts this season — and he has pitched at least 6 innings in both those starts. The 24-year old right-hander was 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP last season — but he was more effective away from Coors Field where he saw his ERA and WHIP drop to 4.01 and 1.11 marks while posting an impressive .220 opponent’s batting average. In his one start on the road this year, Senzatela allowed only 1 earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work at San Diego. Colorado has played 8 straight road games Under the Total with Senzatela on the hill. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss. Now the Braves return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Fried who has been outstanding so far this season with a 3-0 record along with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in four starts. Two of those starts were at home where he sported a 0.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .186 as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average when on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where the left-hander had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 15 innings at home as compared to his 3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 18 2/3 innings on the road. I pay close attention to sample sizes — but I feel comfortable with Fried’s career 2.80 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in 34 2/3 innings of work when pitching at his Sun Trust Field in Atlanta. Fried faces a Rockies team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .199 batting average along with a .242 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .558 this year. The Under is 40-19-2 in Colorado’s last 61 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 19-7-2 in their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockies are looking to avenge a 7-1 loss at home as a small money-line favorite against the Braves back on April 9th. Colorado has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss at home. Lastly, these two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in Atlanta Under the Total. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Max Fried. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Hurricanes v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (7) and the New York Islanders (8). THE SITUATION: Carolina (50-32-7) has won four of their last five games after defeating the Capitals in Washington on Wednesday with their 4-3 win in overtime in the climactic seventh game of that series. New York (52-27-7) has won their last six games after completing their seven-game sweep of the Penguins with their 3-1 win in Pittsburgh back on April 16th. The Islanders host this game in the Barclays Center to begin this seven-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Carolina has also won 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least four goals against a Metropolitan Division rival in their last game. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have played 16 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after playing a game on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least three goals. Carolina is getting outstanding goaltending from Petr Mrazek who had a 1.83 Goals-Against-Average with a .938 save percentage after the All-Star Break during the regular season. The Hurricanes held the Capitals to just 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over the last five games in that series. Carolina has also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total when playing Metropolitan Division rivals. And while the Hurricanes have played three straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. New York has only allowed one goal in each of their last three games. Goalie Robin Lehner enjoys a 2.05 Goals-Against-Average with a .929 save percentage when playing at home this season. Over their last five games, the Islanders allowed only 1.2 Goals-Per-Game. Moving forward, the Under is 34-16-2 in New York’s last 52 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. But the Isles will likely be rusty in their offensive execution after not being in a real game in ten days. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. New York has also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Islanders led the NHL by allowing only 196 goals this season — and the Hurricanes were not far behind as they finished tied for sixth in fewest goals allowed. While I suspect some of the games in this series to finish Over the Total, look for both these teams to be cautious in this opener. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (7) and the New York Islanders (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Huddersfield Town v. Liverpool UNDER 4 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2000137) and Liverpool (2000138). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (3-5-27) limps into this match coming off a 2-1 loss to Watford last Saturday. Liverpool (27-7-1) comes off a 2-1 win at Cardiff City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Huddersfield is not likely to score a goal in this match. The Terriers have scored the fewest goals in the league at 20 — and that number drops to just 11 goals in their 17 matches on the road. Even worse, Huddersfield has scored only three times in their 10 matches against one of the Big Six franchises this season. The Terriers are cemented to be relegated to the Champions League — so this match is all about pride. Don’t be surprised if they park the proverbial bus in their back end to limit the Reds damage. On the plus side, the 29 goals they have surrendered against Big Six competition in ten matches results in less than 3.0 Goals Allowed per match. Yet this remains a side that has not scored a goal in seven of their last English Premier League matches on the road. And while they have allowed 69 goals this season with 39 of these goals being on the road — the Expected Goals metric indicates that they should have allowed just 60.78 goals overall this season along with only 32.00 goals allowed when playing on the road. Liverpool needs every point possible in their fight for first place with Manchester City. But the Reds will be without their top forward in Roberto Firminho who meager Jurgen Klopp has announced will not play today because of a muscle injury. While Liverpool is still loaded with goal scorers led by midfielders Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, the absence of Firminho hurts their cohesion up top. As it is, the Reds have not scored more than three goals in five straight EPL matches. But Liverpool has held their last two EPL opponents scoreless. The Reds have allowed only 20 goals this season which is the lowest mark in the league. In twelve home matches against the non-Big Six sides this season, Liverpool has scored a solid but not overwhelming 36 goals — while allowing just 7 goals in those matches.
FINAL TAKE: This match looks destined to be 3-0. The Reds should average their three goals in these situations — but it will be very difficult for Huddersfield to find the back of the net once. With the Total set at 4.0, we have a reasonable cushion. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2000137) and Liverpool (2000138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-19 |
Stars v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:38 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). THE SITUATION: Dallas (47-34-7) won the last three games of their opening round series to defeat Nashville in six games with their 2-1 victory in overtime on Monday. St. Louis (49-30-9) won their last two games in their series with Winnipeg to also dispatch of them in six games with their 3-2 victory last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 31-13-7 in the Stars’ last 51 games after a victory — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win over a Central Division rival. Dallas has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a narrow win by just one goal — and the Under is 19-5-6 in their last 30 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Stars were the second best defensive team in the NHL during the regular season where they allowed just 2.44 Goals-Per-Game. Goalie Ben Bishop enjoyed a 1.15 Goals-Against-Average with a .962 save percentage in his fifteen regular season starts after the All-Star Break. Dallas allowed only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games. But this team also scores only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game when playing on the road with only their top forward line being a reliable source of goals. The Under is 17-6-4 in the Stars’ last 27 games on the road — and the Under is 13-4-4 in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 10-2-2 in Dallas’ last 14 games as a money-line underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. St. Louis has played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. They are led by a red hot goaltender that spearheaded their strong second half of the season in rookie Jordan Bennington who enjoyed a 1.90 GAA with a .928 save percentage in the twenty-three regular season starts after the All-Star Break. The Blues have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when priced as a favorite in the -151 to -200 price range. The Under is also 20-8-2 in St. Louis’ last 30 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas was a perfect 15 of 15 with their Power Play kills in the opening round of the playoffs — and the Blues were solid by allowing only three goals in fourteen Power Plays for the Jets. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Expect this opening game to continue this low-scoring tempo. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-19 |
Blue Jackets v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total run in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). THE SITUATION: Columbus (51-31-4) takes the ice with this first time since April 16th after they completed an improbable 4-0 sweep over Tampa Bay that concluded with a 7-3 victory back on April 16th. Boston (53-27-9) pulled out a seven-game series on Tuesday when they defeated Toronto by a 5-1 score. The Bruins host the opening two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jackets will likely be a bit rusty having not played in twelve days. Their head coach, John Tortorella, is a veteran who has led a previous team to a Stanley Cup championship and he will likely continue to rely on his team playing very physical to set the tone on defense. As it is, the Under is 25-11-4 in Columbus’ last 40 games after a victory — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games after a win at home by a test four goals. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-2 in the Blue Jackets’ last 10 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against a team that did not allow more than two goals in their last contest. The team is getting great goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky who stopped 109 of his 117 shots against the Lightning for a stellar .936 save percentage in that series. Columbus is the hottest team in the NHL right now as they have only lost once since March 24th — and the play of their goaltender has played a big role in their surge. Since the All-Star Break, Bobrovsky has a 2.20 Goals-Against-Average along with a .924 save percentage. The Blue Jackets have allowed only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Now they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total. The Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have also played 7 straight home games Under the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Furthermore, the Bruins have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win over an Atlantic Division rival. Boston will be happy to grind out a heavy-hitting lower scoring game with the Blue Jackets — they finished tied for third in the regular season by allowing only 2.59 Goals-Per-Game. Their goalie, Tuukka Rask, stopped 32 of the 33 shots he faced against the Maple Leafs to lead his team to that Game Seven victory. Rask entered these playoffs with a career 2.25 GAA along with a .924 save percentage in 65 games. Additionally, the Under is 13-4-5 in Boston’s last 22 games in the playoffs as a favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: Columbus’ only loss since Match 24th was a 6-2 loss at home to the Bruins back on April 2nd as a -140 money-line favorite. The Blue Jackets have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when looking to avenge an upset loss — and they have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. Boston has won the last two meetings between these two teams — and Columbus has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when motivated by double-revenge. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Columbus Blue Jackets (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-19 |
Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
129-121 |
Loss |
-101 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (515) and the Golden State Warriors (516). THE SITUATION: Golden State (60-26) took a commanding 3-1 lead in this series on Monday with their 113-105 victory over the Clippers (49-37). The Warriors look to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Warriors took 13 fewer free throws on Monday after attempting 16 fewer free throws than the Clippers in Game Three — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after attempting at least ten fewer free throws than their opponent in two straight games. Now Golden State returns home to the Oracle Center where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their last two games at home. The Clippers go back on the road where they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total. And in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court, Los Angeles has played 16 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home their opponent. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (515) and the Golden State Warriors (516). Best luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-19 |
Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
115-118 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (503) and the Portland Trail Blazers (504). THE SITUATION: Portland (56-30) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Sunday with their 111-98 upset victory in Oklahoma City against the Thunder (50-36). The Trail Blazers return home with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Oklahoma City offense has stalled in their three losses where they have failed to score even 100 points. Paul George is showing signs of being less than 100% with injuries to both his shoulders. He is making only 37% of his shots in this series while shooting just 30.8% from behind the arc — he is simply not close to his outstanding form in February prior to the All-Star Break when he was making a case to being the league’s Most Valuable Player. Russell Westbrook is also struggling as he is making only 36.3% of his shots in this series while shooting only 30.4% from behind the arc. The Thunder have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in OKC’s last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Thunder have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 74 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Under is 50-23-1. Portland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games after a win over a Northwest Division rival. The Trail Blazers have also played 5 of their last games Under the Total after a point spread win. Portland certainly deserves much of the credit for the strong defense they are playing in this series. The Blazers have held the Thunder to just 41.3% shooting percentage from the field along with a low 30.8% mark from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA First Round Northwest Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (503) and the Portland Trail Blazers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-19 |
Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 215 |
Top |
91-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (575) and the Utah Jazz (576). THE SITUATION: Houston (50-35) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday night with their 104-101 upset win in Utah (50-35) as a 2-point underdog. The Jazz host Game Four looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a pulling off an upset victory — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games after a victory by 6 points or less. That game finished below the 214.5 point Total — and Houston has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Rockets are playing their best defense of the season. They have held their last five opponents to just a 41.7% shooting percentage. Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after holding their last five opponents to no higher than a 42% field goal percentage. Now the Rockets go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Houston has played an incredible 36 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them playing eleven of their last fourteen games Under the Total in that situation. Additionally, the Rockets have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when attempting to close out a playoff series. Utah has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Over their last five games, this team is shooting only 43.3% from the field. The Jazz stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with at least triple revenge. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Round One Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (575) and the Utah Jazz (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-19 |
Predators v. Stars UNDER 5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (85) and the Dallas Stars (86). THE SITUATION: Dallas (46-34-7) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Saturday with their victory at Nashville (49-32-6). The Stars have the opportunity to close out this series tonight back on their home ice.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas is getting it done with their defense as they ave allowed only eleven goals in the first five games of this series. The Stars not only play a cautious style of play but they are also getting outstanding goaltending from Ben Bishop. The veteran had a 1.98 Goals-Against-Average during the regular season with a .934 save percentage — and those numbers improved to a 1.90 GAA with a .937 save percentage when playing at home. The Under is 30-14-7 in Dallas’ last 51 games after a win — and they have played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after a win. Furthermore, the Stars have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road where they scored at least four goals. Additionally, Dallas has played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least three goals. Now the Stars return home where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 13-3-1 in their last 17 home games when priced as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range. Nashville has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss to a Central Division rival — and they have also played ten of their last fifteen games Under the Total after a loss at home to a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Under is 22-7-5 in the Predators’ last 34 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games against opponents who scored at least five goals in their last contest. This team has to tighten things up on defense after allowing ten goals in their last two games. Nashville has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in two straight games. Now this team goes on the road where the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. Additionally, the Preds have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: Nashville has played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road where are attempting to avenge two straight losses by at least two goals. 25* NHL First Round CNBC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (85) and the Dallas Stars (86). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-19 |
Braves v. Indians OVER 8 |
Top |
11-5 |
Win
|
101 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (10-10) snapped a four-game losing streak yesterday by defeating Cleveland (12-8) by an 8-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a win. The Atlanta bullpen has been busy as of late as they have pitched 15 combined innings over their last three games — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after pitching at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. They send out Fried who is 2-0 with an 0.92 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP so far this season. While those numbers look great, the fact that the left-hander is striking out only 5.5 batters per 9 innings of work is of concern. Both his SIERA and xFIP project significant regression with those numbers projecting an ERA of 4.15 and 3.80 moving forward. Fried was more effective at home last year where he had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.287 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 — but those numbers rose to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 when pitching on the road. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Over is 22-7-2 in the Braves’ last 31 games against teams with a winning record. Fried faces an Indians team that scores 5.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Cleveland (12-8) has played 4 of their last 5 games in Interleague play Over the Total. The Indians’ bullpen has been roughed up as of late after they blew the save yesterday by surrendering 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Cleveland’s pen has an 8.25 ERA over their last five games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games when their bullpen has a 6.50 ERA or worse over their last five contests. They counter with Bieber who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP so far this season. But his SIERA and xFIP project a decline in those numbers as they project an ERA of 3.78 and 3.99 respectively moving forward. Bieber was not as effective when pitching at home last year where he had a 5.88 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .328 as compared to his 3.56 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 when on the road. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Bieber on the bump after a game where they allowed at least five runs. Cleveland has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They face a hot Braves lineup that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last five games with a .261 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .353 and an OPS of .819. Atlanta also scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 15-3-4 in the Indians’ last 22 home games when facing left-handed starting pitchers. The sample size regarding the number of starts a pitcher has made with his team is an important factor before I feel comfortable investing in April baseball action. With both these pitchers with their same team from last year — and with both with a growing set of 2019 data that says they are overachieving relative to their frontline ERA and WHIP numbers — let’s attack this early season opportunity. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (929) and the Cleveland Indians (930) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-19 |
Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 217 |
Top |
119-103 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Detroit Pistons (562). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (62-22) took a commanding 2-0 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 120-99 victory over Detroit (41-43) as a 15.5-point favorite. The Pistons host Games Three and Four tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Detroit has not been able to put up much of a fight without their best offensive option in Blake Griffin who is likely to miss the third game in this series. The Pistons made only 37.4% of their shots on Wednesday. Over their last five games, Detroit is scoring only 99.2 PPG while shooting 39.9% from the field as opposed to their 106.7 PPG scoring average for the season on 43.8% shooting. The Pistons have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a double-digit loss. Detroit was also not competitive in the first game of this series which they lost by a 121-86 score. The Pistons have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing their last two games by double-digits — and this includes them playing their last six games Under the Total after losing their last two games on the road by at least 10 points. Detroit should play better on defense back at home tonight after allowing the Bucks to make 52.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Pistons hold their guests to just 46.0% shooting — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Under is 9-4-1 in Detroit’s last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least 10 points. Now the Bucks go on the road where they have played 48 of their last 77 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Milwaukee has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range overall. And in their last 16 games against fellow Central Division opponents, the Bucks have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Detroit Pistons (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-19 |
Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (63) and the Boston Celtics (64). THE SITUATION: Boston (51-26-9) evened this series at 2-2 on Wednesday with their 6-4 victory over Toronto (48-30-6). The Bruins return home with the opportunity to move within one game of clinching this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 8 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after a victory over an Atlantic Division rival. The Bruins have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games after scoring at least five goals when they are playing on their home ice. Furthermore, Boston has played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game. While it was a high scoring game in Toronto on Wednesday, look for the Bruins defense and goaltender Tuukka Rask to play better tonight. Rask had a 2.32 Goals-Against-Average at home during the regular season with a .913 save percentage. Rask entered this postseason with a 2.25 GAA along with a .924 save percentage in 65 games in the playoffs which includes a Stanley Cup championship run. Boston has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bruins have also seen the Under go 12-4-5 in their last 21 games in the playoffs when favored and priced in the -110 to -150 price range. Toronto needs to play better with their Power Play Kill Unit as they have allowed Boston to score in 5 of their 11 (45.5%) Power Play chances. The Maple Leafs were just 17th in killing Power Plays during the regular season — but they should get closer to that 79.9% mark as this series moves on. Toronto has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Maple Leafs have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And the Under is 5-2-1 in Toronto’ last 8 games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range.
FINAL TAKE: The Maple Leafs have played 10 of their last 13 games on the road when motivated by revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. With this game being played in Boston, expect the Bruins’ to win the battle of styles which will result in a slower and more physical game. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (63) and the Boston Celtics (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-19 |
Raptors v. Magic UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
98-93 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (551) and the Orlando Magic (552). THE SITUATION: Toronto (59-25) evened this series at 1-1 on Tuesday with their 111-82 victory over the Magic (43-41) as a 10.5-point favorite. Game Three and Four of this series move to Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors tightened up their 3-point defense — or the Regression Gods paid a visit to Toronto in Game Two as the Magic made only 9 of their 34 (26.5%) shots from behind the arc after nailing 14 of their 29 (48.3%) 3-pointers in their upset win in Game One. The deeper concern for Orlando is that their most reliable scorer, Nikola Vucevic, has been bottlenecked down low by the Toronto combination of Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Vucevic is averaging only 8.5 PPG in this series while shooting just 6 of 21 (28.6%) from the field. The Raptors are an outstanding defensive team that ranked 5th during the regular season in Defensive Rating. Toronto has held their last five opponents to just 101.6 PPG on 41.4% shooting from the field — as compared to the 108.0 PPG they are allowing for the season on 44.8% shooting. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Raptors’ last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in Toronto’s last 4 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Raptors have covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 games on the road — and they have now played 5 straight games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Orlando has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Magic have all played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 36 of the last 52 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Head coach Steve Clifford will focus his team’s bounce-back from Game Two on the defensive end of the court where they ranked 8th in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Orlando has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and in their last 6 games played on Orlando, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. 25* NBA First Round ESPN Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (551) and the Orlando Magic (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-19 |
Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 210 |
Top |
105-114 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (49-34) won the opening game of this series on Saturday with their 101-96 upset win over the Nuggets in the opening game of this series. Denver (54-29) hosts Game Two before the Spurs host Games Three and Four.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Antonio has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Spurs have won four straight games, they have then played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning at least three in a row. San Antonio found success by double-teaming Nikola Jokic in the post and forcing him to pass to open teammates who more often than not missed their open shot — the Nuggets made only 42% of their shots from the field. But the Spurs had their own difficulties on offense with their two leading scorers, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan combining to score only 33 points on 12 of 36 combined shooting. San Antonio has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Spurs have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 11 games against Western Conference opponents, San Antonio has played 10 of these games Under the Total. Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Nuggets have lost three of their last four games, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four. Denver should have better success containing the Spurs scorers who — outside of DeRozan and Aldridge — converted 28 of their 47 shots for a sizzling 60% shooting clip. The Nuggets hold their opponents to just a 44.9% shooting percentage on their home court. Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Under the Total. Expect these trends to continue tonight in Game Two of this series. 25* NBA-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-19 |
Arsenal v. Watford UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200073) and Watford (200074). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (19-6-7) enters this English Premier League matching looking to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at Everton last Saturday. Watford (13-7-12) returns to EPL action where their last match was back on April 2nd when they defeated Fulham by a 4-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has scored only five goals in their last four matches — but they have surrendered only two goals over that span. None of those last four matches saw more than two combined goals scored. The Gunners have slowed down on offense in large measure to do the slump of their striker, Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. First-year manager Unai Emery is no longer playing Aubemeyang consistently despite him being the team’s leading scorer with 17 goals. When Emery pairs Aubemeyang with Alexandre Lacazette at forward, Arsenal becomes one of the most dynamic scoring sides in the EPL. But Emery does not like how that pairing impacts how his team plays defensively — and it has been Aubemeyang who has been the odd man out. The Gunners have scored 65 goals this season — but the deeper metrics suggests they have been fortunate to generate that much scoring as their Expected Goals drops to 54.21 this year. Arsenal has scored only 26 goals on the road this year in their 15 matches for a meager 1.73 Goals-Per-Game average — but their Expected Goals on the road drops to just 20. On the positive side of the ledger, the Gunners have allowed 28 goals on the road but the Expected Goals allowed drops to 25.02. Arsenal simply does not create a ton of scoring chances. The Gunners rank 12th in the EPL by scoring 11.9 shots per game — and that number drops to 10.5 shots per game when they are playing on the road which is just 13th in the league. Watford plays a grinding and physical style of play that tends to give Arsenal some trouble. The Hornets have only allowed two goals in their last five matches at home. Overall, Watford has surrendered just 20 goals in their 15 home matches. But the Hornets have scored only 23 times at home this year — and their Expected Goals at home drops to just 19.42. Watford plays conservatively on the pitch — they are just 16th in the EPL by averaging only 11.2 shots per game. The Hornets are also 7th in the league by only allowing 12.7 shots per game. Watford has scored only eight times in their ten matches against the Big Six teams in the EPL. At home, the Hornets have scored only five goals in their five home matches against the Big Six.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are playing lower scoring games as of late — particularly when Watford is playing at home where just 10 combined goals have been scored in their last five home matches. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200073) and Watford (200074). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-11-19 |
Hurricanes v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the Washington Capitals (14). THE SITUATION: Carolina (46-29-5) enters their first postseason in a decade on a three-game winning streak after their 4-3 win in Philadelphia last Saturday. Washington (48-26-7) begins their defense of their Stanley Cup championship having lost two of three with their 3-0 loss to the New York Islanders. Washington hosts the opening two games of this seven-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory. Carolina is going to be a tough out for the Capitals because they do such a good job of controlling possession of the puck. The Hurricanes lead the NHL in both Corsi-For-Percentage and Fenwick-For-Percentage which measures their net differential in shot attempts versus their opponents. First-year head coach, Rob Brind'Amour, has overseen a style of play that emphasizes speed and constant pressure to keep the puck bottled up on their offensive end of the ice. This approach has helped Carolina to surrender only 28.6 shots per game which is the 3rd lowest in the NHL. This approach has done wonders for journeyman goaltender Petr Mrazek who has responded with an outstanding 1.83 Goals-Against-Average with a .938 save percentage since the All-Star Break. Over his last thirteen games, Mrazek enjoys a 1.68 GAA along with a .944 save percentage with two shutouts. Mrazek flashed plenty of potential when playing for the Red Wings. He has a career 1.98 GAA in 11 games (10 starts) in the playoffs along with a .927 save percentage which includes three shutouts. The Hurricanes have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Carolina has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and the Under is 46-21-3 in their last 70 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Washington has played 6 straight home games after scoring one goal or less in their last game. The Capitals have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total where no more than three combined goals were scored — and the Under is 23-9-2 in their last 34 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. Washington enters the playoffs with a cold Power Play that has converted on only 3 of their last 25 opportunities (12.1%). But the Caps have a hot goalie right now with Braden Holtby boasting a .947 save percentage over his last five starts. Holtby will be a confident goaltender after finally leading his team to hoist the Cup last year. Holtby had a 2.16 GAA in last year’s playoffs with a .922 save percentage and two shutouts. In his career 82 playoff starts, Holtby has an outstanding .929 save percentage. The Under is 9-2-1 in Washington’s last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total as the favorite. The Caps have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow Metropolitan Division opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be looking to avenge a 3-2 loss at home to the Capitals back on March 28th in the last meeting between these two teams. The Hurricanes have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a one-goal loss to their opponent. And in the last 5 encounters between these two teams in Washington, the Under is 4-0-1. 25* NHL USA-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the Washington Capitals (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-19 |
Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (009) and the San Jose Sharks (010). THE SITUATION: Vegas (43-25-5) has lost two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after closing out the regular season with a 5-2 loss in Los Angeles to the Kings on Saturday. San Jose (46-27-6) won their last two games of the regular season after they defeated Colorado on Saturday by a 5-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury played in those final two games of the regular season after getting a bunch of time off in March with the birth of his child coinciding with Vegas being pretty much locked-in to the third seed in the Pacific Division standings. Fleury's first game back was a 4-1 loss at home to Arizona last Thursday — but the Golden Knights have then played 11 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least four goals in two straight games. Fleury needed to knock some rust off after taking time off — but I expect the veteran to be ready to go after being simply outstanding in his last two playoff experiences. In Vegas’ victory over the Sharks in six games in last year’s Western Conference Semifinals, Fleury had a 2.14 Goals-Against-Average with a .935 save percentage with two shutouts. The Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Furthermore, the Under is 20-9-2 in Vegas’ last 31 road games as an underdog — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog in the playoffs. San Jose has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Sharks scored 3.52 Goals-Per-Game during the regular season which was tied for third best in the league. But playoff hockey might see their offense take a step back. For starters, it remains unclear if this team has a consistently reliable top-line. Second, the health of their offensive-minded defenseman, Erik Karlsson, remains an issue as he returns to the ice after a nasty groin injury. Another concern for the Sharks is the play of their goaltender, Martin Jones, who had a 2.94 Goals-Against-Average with a .896 save percentage during the regular season. Jones has a career .926 save percentage in 42 games in the playoffs so he is more than capable and experienced. San Jose may choose to play a bit more cautiously to help build his confidence with the clean slate of the playoffs. San Jose has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 games for the Sharks in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: The last two games played in San Jose in last year’s Western Conference Semifinals saw each team register a shutout win. The biggest problem the Sharks had last year in that series was being too loose with the puck which played right into the Knights’ transition game from forcing turnovers — after blanking them in the opening game of that series by a 7-0 score, Vegas scored four and five goals in their next two victories in that series before then winning by a 6-0 score in the first meeting between these two teams in the regular season back in November. Head coach Peter DeBoer cannot let his team surrender another barrage of goals to this Knights team. Expect this opening game to be a hard-hitting and tightly played affair which makes the Under very enticing with the Total set at 6. 25* NHL 1st Round Pacific Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (009) and the San Jose Sharks (010). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-08-19 |
Texas Tech v. Virginia UNDER 118 |
Top |
77-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (811) and the Virginia Cavaliers (812). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (31-6) reached the National Championship game on Saturday with their 61-51 upset victory over Michigan State as a 2-point underdog. Virginia (34-3) joins them in this showdown with their 63-62 win over Auburn as a 6-point favorite. This game will be played in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis as a neutral court.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We know about the strong defenses both these teams play. Texas Tech leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in that metric. The question is whether the oddsmakers have installed the Total too low with it currently residing in the 118 range. While the Over might look for very tempting to many bettors, don’t take the bait. The Red Raiders allowed only 58.8 PPG this season while limiting their opponents to just 36.8% shooting from the field. Their five NCAA Tournament opponents are scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession rate which is the lowest since mark in the Big Dance since 2006. What makes this Texas Tech defense so tough is their ability to seamlessly switch off as defenders to fight off picks with all five of their players on the court. The Red Raiders have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. Texas Tech has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or underdog of 3 points or less when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, the Red Raiders have played 18 of their last 25 games in the postseason Under the Total — and this includes them playing five of their last six games in the Big Dance Under the Total. Virginia has played 8 of their last 9 road games against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Cavaliers are holding their opponents to just 55.5 PPG this season while limiting these foes to just 38.4% shooting from the field. Texas Tech has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39% or lower. On paper, Virginia has the third highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number in the nation. In practice, the Cavaliers have only matched or eclipsed that number once in their last six games this season (against Purdue). Virginia made 49% of their shots against Auburn which was actually their best shooting effort from the field in their last four games — yet they scored only 63 points. The Cavaliers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a close win by 3 points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Virginia has only scored 28 and 29 points in the first half of their last two contests — and they have then played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after failing to score at least 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Cavaliers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Virginia has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I would not be shocked if one of these teams gets hot with their shooting. However, I do not see both teams torching the nets — and it is much more likely that both teams will struggle to hit baskets with the pressure of winning a National Championship on the line. Both these teams complement their stout defenses with a slow deliberate pace on the offensive end of the court. The strong fundamental play here is with the Under. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (811) and the Virginia Cavaliers (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-06-19 |
Texas Tech v. Michigan State UNDER 133 |
Top |
61-51 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (801) and the Michigan State Spartans (802). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (30-6) reached the Final Four last Saturday with their 75-69 upset victory over Gonzaga as a 5-point underdog. Michigan State (32-6) joined them the next day when they upset Duke by a 68-67 score as a 2.5-point underdog. The Final Four takes place U.S. Bank Stadium on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: In theory, the Red Raiders were facing their biggest defensive challenge of the season against a balanced and dynamic Bulldogs offense last week. In practice, Gonzaga scored at just a 0.97 Points-Per-Possession pace which was just the third time all season that the Bulldogs failed to score at least 1.0 PPG against their opponent. Yet even still, the 42.4% shooting clip that Gonzaga managed against Texas Tech was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage the latter had allowed in their last five games. The Red Raiders are holding their NCAA Tournaments to only 57 PPG. A key to their defense is the play of their rim protector, the 6’8, 250-lb Norense Odiase who is holding opponents to scoring at a minuscule 0.429 Points-Per-Possession in Post-Up plays which is in the 95th percentile in the nation this season. The issue for this Texas Tech team is that their offense tends to stall if Chris Mooney or Davide Moretti are not providing a scoring boost to complement Jarrett Culver. Mooney scored 17 points against Gonzaga but that was his highest scoring output in two months. Moretti made a whopping 62.5% of his 3-pointers in the two games in Anaheim after missing all seven of his 3-pointers in the first two games in the Big Dance. When neither of those players are contributing points, the Red Raiders offense becomes too one-dimensional as they rely on Culver to create shots in isolation. Texas Tech has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Furthermore, the Red Raiders have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Texas Tech has also found more offense by scoring in transition — but they are now facing a Spartans team that did not allow Duke to score a single point in transition last Sunday. The Under is 28-10-1 in Michigan State’s last 39 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Spartans have only allowed 30 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in their last game. Michigan State has held their opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 61.3 PPG while limiting them to only 28.2% shooting from behind the arc. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Spartans’ last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech averages 18.3 seconds per possession which is the 267th slowest in the nation. With the Red Raiders boasting the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation and Sparty not far behind by ranking 9th in the nation in that metric. Points should be hard to come by in this contest. 25* CBB Final Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (801) and the Michigan State Spartans (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
110-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (555) and the Denver Nuggets (556). THE SITUATION: Portland (50-28) enters this game coming off a 116-89 win over Memphis on Wednesday as a 9.5-point favorite. Denver (52-26) comes off a 113-85 win over San Antonio on Wednesday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Portland’s last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Trail Blazers are playing tough on the defensive end of the court as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 43.0% field goal percentage. Portland needs to lean on their defense given the injuries to C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Turkic who takes away a big-time scoring and a beast on the offensive glass for them. The Blazers go back on the road where the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver (52-26) has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Nuggets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Denver is struggling to score points as of late. They are scoring just 101.0 PPG over their last five games on 44.3% shooting from the field which is far below their 110.8 PPG scoring average for the season allowing with a 46.6% field goal percentage. The Nuggets stay at home where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total. Denver has also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, the Nuggets have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents — and in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Denver has played all 6 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has lost their last five encounters with the Nuggets with the last result being a 116-113 loss in Denver back on January 13th. The previous result was a narrow 113-112 loss at home back on November 30th — and the Trail Blazers have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when looking to avenge to straight losses that were decided by 3 points or less. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (555) and the Denver Nuggets (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-19 |
Texas v. TCU UNDER 138 |
Top |
58-44 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). THE SITUATION: Texas (19-16) reached the Semifinals of the NIT last Wednesday with their 68-55 win over Colorado as a 5-point favorite. TCU (23-13) joins them in the NIT Semifinals care of their 71-58 won over Creighton as a 3.5-point favorite last Tuesday. The way meet in the Madison Square Garden where the Semifinals and Finals of this event take place.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns held the Buffaloes to just 32.7% shooting in their win on Thursday. This is a strong defensive unit for head coach Shaka Smart — they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Under is 38-17-1 in Texas’ last 56 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. And while they held Colorado to just 19 first-half points — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Now the Longhorns go on the road after playing their last three games — and they shoot just 41.5% from the field away from home. Over their last five games, Texas is shooting only 40.2% from the field. They have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. TCU is also playing their first game away from home in their last four contests. The Horned Frogs have played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. And while their victory over the Bluejays was preceded by an 88-72 win over Nebraska, TCU has then played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home by double-digits. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s squad is also very good on the defensive end of the court as they rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after holding Creighton to just 36.2% shooting. The Horned Frogs have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. And in their last 87 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, TCU has played 53 of these games Under the Total — and this includes them playing five of these last seven situations.
FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Longhorns have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Texas is looking to avenge a 69-56 upset loss at home laying 7 points to TCU back on March 9th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. These two teams have played 10 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — expect another low scoring game between these two teams in the third meeting between these Big 12 opponents this season. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-19 |
Stars v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (21) and the Vancouver Canucks (22). THE SITUATION: Dallas (41-31-5) has won three straight games with their 3-2 win over Edmonton on Tuesday. Vancouver (33-35-2) snapped a three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 3-2 win over Los Angeles in a shootout.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is a decisive 23-3-4 in the Stars’ last 30 games after a victory — and the Under is also 20-4-5 in their last 29 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Dallas is allowing only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. They will turn to Anton Khudobin in between the pipes tonight with Ben Bishop nursing a lower-body injury. Khudobin has a strong .923 save percentage on the road this season — and he enjoys a 2.14 Goals-Against-Average with a .937 save percentage in five starts (seven games) this month. He will need to be good tonight since the Stars score only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game when playing on the road. The Under is 19-6-5 in Dallas’ last 30 games on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 5.5. Furthermore, the Under is 7-1-2 in the Stars’ last 10 road games as a favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range. The Under is also 18-6-3 in Dallas’ last 27 games against fellow Western Conference foes. Vancouver has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory. The Canucks have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two goals in their last game. Jacob Markstrom will be in goal tonight — he has a solid 2.68 GAA along with a .918 save percentage since the All-Star Break. Vancouver stays at home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. The Canucks have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home as an underdog. Additionally, Vancouver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference foes.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* NHL Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (21) and the Vancouver Canucks (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-19 |
Magic v. Pacers UNDER 206 |
Top |
121-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (537) and the Indiana Pacers (538). THE SITUATION: Orlando (37-39) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 115-98 loss in Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog. Indiana (45-31) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 114-112 loss in Boston last night as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers allowed the Celtics to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last sixteen games. Indiana has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less — and they have played a decisive 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Indiana has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Now this team returns home where they play outstanding defense — their visitors are scoring only 99.9 PPG on low 42.8% shooting from the field. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 22 of their last 30 home games when favored. Furthermore, Indiana has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Pacers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. The Magic average 106.2 PPG — and Indiana has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 106.0 PPG. Orlando should also play harder on the defensive end of the court after they allowed the Pistons to make 53.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last twelve games. The Magic have played 37 of their last 53 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 41 of their last 58 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Orlando has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. The Magic stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And while the Pacers shoot 47.4% from the field, Orlando has played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams who are making at least 46% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana will be looking to avenge a 117-112 loss at home to the Magic back on March 2nd. The Pacers will be looking to bear down on defense after allowing Orlando to make 50.5% of their shots in that game. Indiana has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (537) and the Indiana Pacers (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-19 |
Texas Tech v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
75-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
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At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (683) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (684). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (29-6) reached the Elite Eight on Thursday with their 63-44 upset win over Michigan as a 2-point underdog. Gonzaga (33-3) joined them in the Elite Eight with their 72-58 win over Florida State on Thursday as a 7.5-point favorite. This West regional contest takes place in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Raiders absolutely stifled the Wolverines offense in that game as they held them to just a 32.3% shooting percentage while watching them miss 18 of their 19 shot from behind the arc. Texas Tech not only has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation but they rank as the second-best all-time defense according to metrics guru Ken Pomeroy since he started measuring those numbers in 2002. The Red Raiders have held their last five opponents to just 38.0% shooting from the field which has translated into only 62.2 PPG. Texas Tech has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Pack-Line defense that head coach Chris Beard deploys is very difficult to prepare for — and they have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Under is also a decisive 46-21-1 in this team’s last 68 games against teams outside the Big 12 that are less familiar with their defensive schemes. But the concern for this Red Raiders team is their ability to score baskets themselves. Texas Tech scored only 24 points in the first half against a tough Wolverines defense — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They will be facing another outstanding defensive team in the Bulldogs who hold their opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the field. The Red Raiders have played 9 of their last 10 games away from home Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39% or less. Texas Tech has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, the Red Raiders have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Big Dance — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or a favorite of no more than 6 points. The Bulldogs have then top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers in the nation — but they will be challenged by this elite Red Raiders’ defense. Gonzaga’s offense slows down if point guard Josh Perkins has to overcome pesky defensive ball hawks — and Texas Tech has that type of player in Matt Mooney. With their offensive prowess gets most of the attention, the Bulldogs defense is under appreciated as they rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency. With Killian Tillie back in the mix after being out with an injury, a strength of this group is that they have athletic players that can effectively play off switches. The Red Raiders make 47.2% of their shots — but Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that shoot at least 45% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga will want to push the pace to generate scoring opportunities in transition as they play the 7th fastest tempo in the nation. This is why the Total is set in the 130s. The Bulldogs will struggle to score in their half-court sets — but the Red Raiders will also struggle as well. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (683) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-19 |
Auburn v. North Carolina UNDER 164 |
Top |
97-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
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At 7:29 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (673) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (674). THE SITUATION: Auburn (28-9) reached the Sweet Sixteen last Saturday with their 89-75 win over Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite. North Carolina (29-6) joined them on Sunday in the Sweet Sixteen with their 81-59 victory over Washington as an 11.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Kansas City for this Midwest region showdown.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Auburn shot 52.5% from the field against the Jayhawks in what was the best shooting effort in their last eighteen games. The Tigers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Auburn has also played 7 of their 11 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. With both these teams loving to play at a fast pace while scoring many of their baskets in transition, it is tempting to think the final score will finish well above the Total. The Tigers get over 20% of their points from transition which places them seventh in the nation in that metric. But head coach Bruce Pearl may decide it is a losing battle to getting into a drag race with the Tar Heels who thrive in transition and are one of the six teams in the country that generate more points than Auburn that way. Duke also scores more points in transition than the Tigers — and Pearl had his team slow things down when they played earlier this season. That contest saw a moderate 71 possessions in that game with the result being a 78-72 win over the Blue Devils. Expect Pearl to slow the pace of this game down as well with the hopes that his team’s 3-point shooting and ability to force turnovers will make the winning difference. North Carolina averages 67 shots per game which translates into 86.0 PPG. Auburn has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams that score at least 84 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 62 shots per game. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are winning at least 80% of their games. And in their last 19 games with the Total set in the 160s, Auburn has played 14 of these games Under the Total. North Carolina has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. The Tar Heels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, North Carolina has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. While the Tar Heels are a high-scoring team, their good play on the defensive end of the court is under-appreciated. North Carolina is 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.1% field goal percentage. But the Tar Heels are only making 44.6% of their shots over their last five contests which is a few notches below their 46.5% mark for the season. Moving forward, North Carolina has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Additionally, the Tar Heels have played 5 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set in the mid-160s for this game, expect Auburn to try to slow things down to keep the Tar Heels offense in check. 25* CBB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (673) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-19 |
Florida State v. Gonzaga UNDER 148.5 |
Top |
58-72 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
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At 7:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (655) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (656). THE SITUATION: Florida State (29-7) reached the Sweet Sixteen with their 90-62 blowout win over Murray State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (32-3) joined them in the Sweet Sixteen with an 83-71 win over Baylor as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This West regional game is being played in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seminoles shots 50.7% from the field against the Racers on the strength of nailing 11 of their 27 shots (40.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. They are unlikely to replicate that effort tonight against this Bulldogs team that ranks 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Gonzaga is even better in defending the half-court as they rank 7th in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.0% — and they also rank 21st in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 30.5% shooting mark from behind the arc. Despite torching the nets against Murray State, Florida State is making only 42.8% of their shots over their last five games — and they rank just 210th in the nation by making only 33.7% of their 3-pointers. The Seminoles raced out to a 50-34 halftime lead on Saturday in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying at least a 15 point lead at halftime of their last game. That result finished well above the 146.5 point total — but Florida State has then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Bulldogs have an opponents’ field goal percentage of 38.7%, the Seminoles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that do not allow their opponents to make more than 38% of their shots. Additionally, Florida State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. The Bulldogs have given up only 23 and 17 points in the first half of their first two games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. However, it is Gonzaga’s 60-47 loss to Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference championship game which may have borne the fruit for how Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton will have his team play. Admittedly, Hamilton will have his team play at a much faster pace than the crawl that the Gaels usually engage. But Saint Mary’s found success in dropping their guards off ball screens who allowed them to contest 2-point shots that frustrated the Bulldogs. Gonzaga point guard Josh Perkins also was bothered by the Gaels’ pressure they applied against him — and Perkins is susceptible to having very bad games. When that happens, the Zags’ offense can stall. Hamilton has five tall guards with length who can throw at Perkins with pressure to veer the Bulldogs offensive flow off balance. Florida State has the tenth best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation with their outstanding athleticism and length — and Hamilton can play position-less basketball with his one through five players all being able to switch off ball screens. Furthermore, the Seminoles out-rebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Gonzaga has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the West Coast Conference.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game is set in the high-140s because both teams like to play at a quick tempo. But both defenses should have the upper hand in this contest — so expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (655) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (656). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-19 |
Lipscomb v. NC State UNDER 163 |
Top |
94-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (625) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (626). Lipscomb (27-7) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the NIT on Saturday with their 88-69 upset win at UNC-Greensboro as a 2-point underdog. NC State (24-11) joined them in the Quarterfinals with their 78-77 victory over Harvard on Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Lipscomb has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. The Bison has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a victory on the road. This team stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Lipscomb has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Bison led the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They limit their home hosts this season to just 40% shooting from the field. This team will be challenged by the Wolfpack who led the ACC by pulling down 34.9% of their missed shots — but Lipscomb is very good at defending their defensive glass. The Bison are 14th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.4% of their missed shots. Furthermore, the Bison have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 160s. NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when the Total was set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. And while the Wolfpack have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread for three straight contests. NC State shot only 40% from the field in their win over Harvard. Over their last five games, the Wolfpack are making only 40.9% of their shots. They survived the Crimson Tide despite allowing them to make 52.7% of their shots. Yet NC State has played better defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 41.0% shooting clip which is a bit better this than their 43.9% opponents’ field goal percentage for the season. Now the Wolfpack return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 10 home games as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points, NC State has played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is set in the 160s since both these teams play at a fast pace. Despite that up-tempo play in this game, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (625) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-19 |
Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
99-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (576). THE SITUATION: Indiana (45-29) snapped their four-game losing streak last night with their 124-88 upset win over Denver as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Oklahoma City (43-31) has lost five of their last six games after their 115-103 upset loss at Memphis on Monday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Indiana has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 15 games after losing three of their last four games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total. The Pacers made 56.1% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last fourteen contests. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and the Under is 23-7-1 in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The struggling Thunder returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Oklahoma City’s struggles as of late can be attributed to a steep decline on offense: they are last in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency since the All-Star Break. Over their last five games, the Thunder are shooting just 40.4% from the field which has translated into 105.6 PPG with both those numbers far below their 114.3 PPG scoring average for the season on 45.3% shooting from the field. And while their defensive play has also declined since the break, they still are a respectable 9th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency over their last fifteen games. Moving forward, the Under is 36-16-1 in the Thunder’s last 53 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight meetings Under the Total. With Oklahoma City struggling with their baskets, expect a lower-scoring game against this Pacers’ team that plays hard for their head coach Nate McMillan. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-19 |
Washington v. North Carolina UNDER 151 |
Top |
59-81 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
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At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (867) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (868). THE SITUATION: Washington (27-8) has won three of their last four games with their 78-61 upset victory over Utah State on Friday as a 3.5-point underdog. North Carolina (28-6) has won nine of their last ten games with their 88-73 victory over Iona on Friday as a 24.5-point favorite. This Midwest regional game is being played in Columbus, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies made 49% of their shots against the Aggies which was the best shooting mark in the last five games. That was an outlier effort for this challenged team on offense — Washington ranks 109th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking 102nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. Overall, the Huskies score 70.1 PPG on 45% shooting from the field — but those numbers drop to just 63.4 PPG along with a 41.0% shooting mark when playing away from home. Washington has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game finished Over the 136 point total, the Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. What this Washington team thrives at is playing defense as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Senior guard Matisse Thybulle may be the best defensive player in college basketball. Head coach Mike Hopkins was a long time assistant of Jim Boeheim at Syracuse so this team deploys a similar 2-3 matchup-zone which can be very difficult to prepare for in tournament action on the weekend with the short turn-around time. The Huskies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Washington has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. North Carolina made 46.7% of their shots over the Gaels on Friday which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. The Tar Heels are only making 43% of their shots over their last five games. North Carolina has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 15 points. The Tar Heels did control the glass against Iona as they pulled down 52 rebounds. The vulnerability of the 2-3 zone is that it leaves open space in front of the basket for offensive rebounds. Even if North Carolina gets plenty of second-chance opportunities, it helps the Under since it extends possession length. The Tar Heels have played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after rebounding at least 52 boards in their last contest. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. What is underappreciated about this North Carolina team this season is just how good they are playing on defense. Roy Williams’ team ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. This strong defensive play has helped the Tar Heels plate 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Furthermore, North Carolina has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Washington will try to slow this game down to limit possessions. With the Total creeping into the 150s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (867) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-19 |
Murray State v. Florida State UNDER 148 |
Top |
62-90 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). THE SITUATION: Murray State (28-4) pulled the upset in the Round of 64 with their 83-64 win over Marquette as a 3-point underdog on Thursday. Florida State (28-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-69 victory over Vermont as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. This West regional game takes place in Hartford.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers shocked a strong scoring team in the Golden Eagles by holding them to just 32.4% shooting from the field. While Ja Morant gets all the headlines for this team as he pushes up his NBA draft stock, what is underappreciated about this upstart mid-major is their strong half-court defense. Head coach Matt McMahon’s team ranks 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1% — and they are also 3rd in the nation with their opponents making just 28.4% of their 3-pointers. When playing away on the road or neutral courts, the Racers’ opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45% is 6th best in the country. The Seminoles can struggle with their shooting as their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% ranks 180th in the nation — and they make only 33.4% of their 3-pointers which is 223rd in the nation. Murray State has played 17 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after an upset victory. The Racers have also played 5 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points. Additionally, Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. And while the Racers made 9 of their 18 shots from behind the arc against Marquette, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers. Murray State does not rely on the 3 — they are making just 34.8% of their 3-pointers which is 149th in the nation. Led by Morant’s ability to create his own shot or dish to an open teammate, the Racers rank 5th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc. But Morant and this team may face their most difficult test of the season against the deep Seminoles team loaded with long and athletic defenders. Florida State is 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles’ defense is outstanding inside the arc as they hold their opponents to just a 46.0% field goal percentage with their 2-pointers which is 27th best in the country — and that mark lowered to a measly 41.9% clip in ACC play. Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while their game with Vermont finished Over the 133 point total, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, the Seminoles have played 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total played on a neutral court with the number set in the 140s. And while Murray State outscores their opponents by +15.6 PPG, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +12.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Morant is a star in the making — but he will be harassed by a horde of tough defenders from Florida State who will try to coax him to rely on his teammates. The Seminoles will also struggle to score in their half court offense. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-19 |
Minnesota v. Louisville UNDER 137 |
Top |
86-76 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
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At 12:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (21-13) enters the NCAA Tournament looking to bounce-back from a 76-49 loss to Michigan in the Semifinals of the Big Ten tournament last Saturday as a 9-point underdog. Louisville (20-13) has lost two of their last three games with their 83-70 loss to North Carolina last Thursday as a 7-point underdog. This East regional game is being played in Des Moines, Iowa.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Rick Pitino should have his team play tough defense after they allowed the Wolverines to make 51.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Minnesota has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while that game with Michigan finished below the 131 point total, the Golden Gophers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Under the Total. Pitino has this team playing better defense to close out the regular season (despite getting stung by Michigan). They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.9% field goal percentage — and those last five opponents made just 32.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Overall, Minnesota has the 40th best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. But this team can struggle to score points especially on the road where they make only 40.7% of their shots which translates into just 63.6 PPG which is over 7 PPG below their season average. The Golden Gophers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. Louisville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Chris Miller has this team playing a tough pack-line defense that has the Cardinals ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Louisville will be protecting the rim in this game and daring this Gophers team that makes just 32.1% of their 3-pointers (285th in the nation) to shooting from the outside. The Cardinals have held their last five opponents to just a 37.5% shooting percentage. But Louisville is only making 40.3% of their shots over that span. This team can struggle versus zone defenses that Pitino may have his team deploy at times. The Cardinals rely heavily on 3-point shooting as 43.7% of their shots from the field come from downtown (55th in the nation). But Minnesota defense the perimeter well as they ranked 27th in the nation by limiting their opponents to taking just 33.7% of their shots from behind the arc (27th in the nation) — and only 29.1% of their opponent's points come from 3s. Furthermore, Louisville has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams play a little slower than the national average of 17.5 seconds per possession. Look for Minnesota to play very physical against this Louisville team that is small and can be a bit soft. This should be a grinding low-scoring game to open the Round of 64. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-19 |
Belmont v. Temple OVER 155 |
Top |
81-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). THE SITUATION: Belmont (26-5) was upset in the Finals of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament back on March 9th by a 77-65 score as a 2-point favorite. Temple (23-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 80-74 upset loss to Wichita State as a 1.5-point favorite. The First Four games take place on a neutral court in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins shot only 39.1% from the field which was the worst field goal percentage for them in their last 15 games — their second-lowest shooting mark over that span was much higher at 47.3%). This uber-efficient Belmont team is 3rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%. They execute Houston Rockets offensive basketball by shunning midrange jump shots for 3-pointers or shots at the rim: they are 2nd in the nation with a 59.5% shooting percentage inside the arc while also averaging 10.5 made 3-pointers per game. They also play at a fast pace as their 15.9 seconds per possession average is the 29th fastest in the nation — and that tempo increased in conference play where they averaged 15.2 seconds per possession. This up-tempo attack generated 64 shot attempts per game — and the Owls have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 62 shots per game. The Bruins have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while Belmont has still covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after covering five or six of their last seven games. The Bruins should find plenty of success attacking the thin Temple frontline that is allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their shots inside the arc which was second-to-last in the American Athletic Conference. Belmont averages a robust 87.4 PPG this season — and they have played 33 of their last 52 games Over the Total when favored. And while they have played three straight Unders, the Bruins have then played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Belmont has also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points — and they have played their last three games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points on a neutral court. Temple made only 39.1% of their shots in their loss to the Shockers on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Owls has the third best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the AAC while averaging 74.8 PPG for the year. Their trio of starting guards, Shizz Alston, Jr., Quinton Rose, and Nate Pierre-Louis combined to average 49.5 PPG together. Temple has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while this is just their second game since March 9th, the Owls have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing no more than their second game in seven days. Furthermore, while Temple has won six of their last eight games, they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Owls finished 3rd in the conference by making 35.3% of their 3-point shots — and this Bruins team allowed their OVC opponents to make 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc which was 9th in the conference. Belmont is an elite passing team that is 7th in the nation by assisting on 61.9% of their made field goals — and they average a 20 Assists-Per-Game. Temple has played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that average at least 16 Assists-Per-Game. The Owls have also played 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Over is 16-4-1 in their last 21 games played on a neutral court — and they have played four of their last five games Over the Total when playing as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: These are two mediocre defensive teams. While Belmont had the 3rd best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Ohio Valley Conference, they were just 127th in that metric for the entire season. Temple ranked 7th in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking 90th overall for the entire season. The Owls also played at the third fastest pace in a conference that has many teams play at a crawl. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 230 |
Top |
110-88 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (508). THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-21) has won two of their last three games with their upset 106-104 win in Houston on Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. Oklahoma City (42-27) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 108-106 upset loss in Indiana as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. This team travels to Oklahoma City likely without the benefit of Kevin Durant who has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight’s game with an ankle injury — and that takes away a big piece of the Golden State offensive attack. As it is, the Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 34 of their last 51 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Golden State has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total in their last four contests against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 19 games in the month of March where this team starts to get in playoff mode on the defensive end of the court, Golden State has played 15 of these games Under the Total. Oklahoma City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is playing lower scoring games on both ends of the court as of late. Over their last five games, they are averaging 110.2 PPG on 41.5% shooting from the field while allowing 106.4 PPG on 41.5% shooting — those numbers are all lower than their 114.9 PPG with a 45.7% shooting mark on offense and their 110.9 PPG and 45.8% opponent’s field goal mark on defense for the season. The Thunder return home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 18 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, OKC has played 15 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State is looking to avenge an embarrassing 123-95 loss at home to Oklahoma City back on November 21st — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss at home. These two teams have played 17 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total which includes 5 of 6 Unders when playing in Oklahoma City. 25* NBA Saturday Prime-Time ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 135 |
Top |
57-64 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (21-12) reached the Finals of the Mountain West Conference tournament with their 65-56 upset win over Nevada yesterday as a 9-point underdog yesterday. Utah State (27-6) joined them with their 85-60 blowout win over Fresno State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. The MWC tournament takes place in the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas so this is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aztecs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. San Diego State has also played a decisive 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Aztecs made only 42.6% of their shots last night in their victory — yet that was the best shooting effort for them in their last four contests. San Diego State had made only 34.6% and 29.8% of their shots in their previous two contests — and they are shooting just 39.6% from the field over their last five games. This team is very susceptible to experience long scoring droughts. They rank 8th in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as they struggle to shoot the basketball: they also rank 8th in the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. Much of the Aztecs’ offense comes from second-chance opportunities as they rank 4th in the conference by pulling down 28.4% of their missed shots. But good luck with that against this Aggies team that leads the MWC by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 22.8% of their missed shots. San Diego State does play strong defense as they rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have limited their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Aggies have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the MWC. They have made at least 48.5% of their shots in three straight games while scoring at least 81 points in four straight games. But Utah State has then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. And while the Aggies have played four straight Overs, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Furthermore, Utah State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games this season with the Aggies winning the last meeting by a 70-54 score on their home court back on February 26th. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-19 |
UC-Davis v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
71-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (11-19) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 71-70 upset loss at home to UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. CS-Fullerton (14-16) has lost three of their last four games with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Hawai’i as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Big West tournament is played on a neutral court at the Honda Center in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 38-16-1 in Cal-Davis’ last 55 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 42-15-1 in their last 58 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies got upset in that game despite them making 52.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Cal-Davis ranks only 8th in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also score only 63.7 PPG when playing away from home while making just 41.9% of their shots. But the Aggies should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing UC-Riverside to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last six games. Cal-Davis ranks 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. Additionally, the Aggies have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Titans have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and this includes them playing five of their last six games Under the Total when that loss to a conference rival took place on their home court. Furthermore, Fullerton has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after losing three of their last four games. The Titans play very good defense as they rank 2nd in the Big West in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage when playing on the road. But Fullerton only ranks 7th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making just 42.8% of their shots over their last five games. The Titans have played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Fullerton will be looking to avenge a 66-59 loss to Cal-Davis back on March 2nd. The Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they failed to score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Big West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-19 |
Creighton v. Xavier UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). THE SITUATION: Creighton (18-13) has won five straight games after their 91-78 win over DePaul as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Xavier (17-14) has won six of their last seven games with their 81-68 victory over St. John’s as a 2-point favorite. These two teams meet in the Quarterfinals of the Big East taking place at Madison Square Garden which makes this a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Musketeers winning streak over the last month or so has been due to significantly improved play on the defensive end of the court. Xavier has held their last five opponents to just a 42% field goal percentage. The Musketeers have played 7 of the last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Xavier has also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Musketeers made 51.9% of their shots against the Red Storm which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But Xavier makes only 44.9% of their shots away from home. The Bluejays allow their opponents to make 45.8% of their shots — but the Musketeers have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Xavier has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Additionally, the Musketeers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Creighton has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory on their home court. And while the Bluejays have covered the point spread in five straight games with the last two contests being in games where they were favored, Creighton has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering their last two games as a favorite. Furthermore, the Bluejays have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Creighton is very dependent on making 3-point shots — they are 2nd in the Big East with 48.7% of their field goal attempts being from behind the arc. But while the Bluejays are making 39.6% of their 3-point shots, that clip drops to a 35.8% mark when playing away from home. Creighton has played 21 of their last 31 games on the road Under the Total against conference opponents. The Bluejays have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will also have revenge on their minds after seeing Xavier split their two regular-season games with a 64-61 upset win as a 1-point underdog back on February 13th. The Bluejays have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by no more than 3 points. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
Florida Atlantic v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 134 |
Top |
56-57 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). THE SITUATION: FAU (17-14) has lost their last two games with their 76-61 loss at Marshall as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (19-12) snapped their two-game losing streak last Wednesday with their 72-69 upset win at Florida Atlantic as a 2-point favorite. The Conference USA tournament takes place in Frisco, Texas which makes this a true neutral home court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, FAU experienced a massive scoring drought in the final ten minutes in the first half of their game with the Thunder Herd as they managed only 4 points — and they went into halftime with just 28 points scored overall to neutralize their fast start. The Owls have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half of their last game. Scoring is a problem for this team as they rank 11th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Conference USA — and they are making only 40.4% of their shots over their last five games. This team only makes 40.5% of their shots when playing away from home. FAU is playing very good defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 37.6% shooting. The Owls rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. FAU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Louisiana Tech made 47.9% of their shots against the stout Owls’ defense which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But this Bulldogs team is just 9th in Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.9% of their shots on the road. But this Louisiana Tech team also plays strong defense as they rank 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their conference foes to a 41.7% field goal percentage. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: FAU won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-61 score back on January 31st — and the Owls have played 10 of the last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a close by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
CS Sacramento v. Northern Arizona UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
72-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Sacramento State (14-15) enters the Big Sky Tournament coming off an 86-68 loss at home to Montana last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Northern Arizona (10-20) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 89-78 upset win at Northern Colorado as a 13-point underdog. The Big Sky tournament is played in Century Link Arena in Boise, Idaho which makes it a true neutral court for both these teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Brian Katz will want his team to improve their efforts on defense after allowing the Grizzlies to make 59.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Hornets play pretty good defense away from home as they hold those opponents to just a 44.9% field goal percentage. Sacramento State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game with Montana finished above the 137 point Total, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The bigger challenge for this team will be scoring baskets as they rank ninth in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 41.3% of their shots over their last five games — and they average just 65.3 PPG along with a 41.4% field goal percentage when playing away from home. Furthermore, the Hornets have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Northern Arizona made only 43.7% of their shots on Saturday and still pulled off the upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and yet that was still the best shooting effort for this team in their last three games. The Lumberjacks are making only 41.8% of their shots from the field in their last five games. But this team is playing solid on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to only a 43.5% field goal percentage. Northern Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games on the road Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. Now this team stays away from home for the fourth straight game where they are making just 43.7% of their shots. The Lumberjacks are just seventh in the Big Sky conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Northern Arizona has played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. The Lumberjacks have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento State will be motivated by revenge from a 78-66 upset loss to Northern Arizona as a 7-point home favorite back on February 16th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when looking to avenge an upset loss to their opponent as a home favorite in their last encounter. These two teams have played their 6 straight meetings Under the Total. Lastly, the cherry on top for this situation is that it will be played at 9:30 AM local time. While these early tip-off situations should never be automatic plays since the tendency for teams to be a bit groggy at the unconventional early hour, this still represents only another piece of evidence. In these circumstances, it certainly helps in making a strong Under play even better. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-19 |
St. Mary's v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
60-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (21-11) has won six of their last seven games to reach the West Coast Conference tournament championship game with their 69-62 loss to San Diego last night as a 4.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (30-2) comes off a 100-74 win win over Pepperdine last night as a 24-point favorite. This tournament is being played at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas which makes it a true neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 59.7% of their shots last night which was the sixth straight games where they made at least 52.8% of their shots. Gonzaga had 26 team assists against the Wave last night as they assisted on a whopping 70.3% of their made field goals — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 team assists. The Bulldogs have also played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. Gonzaga enjoyed a 47-26 halftime lead last night — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by at least 20 points — and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Gonzaga has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. This Bulldogs team has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the nation — but they are also an underrated defensive team. They were lax at times in the first two months of the season in their effort — and they were exposed in back-to-back losses to Tennessee and North Carolina. In West Coast Conference play, the Zags limited their opponents to score at just a 0.863 Points-Per-Possession clip. Gonzaga also ranks 7th run the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just of 44.1% — and that is particularly important when facing this Gaels’ team that relies on their shooting. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and this includes them played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Head coach Mark Few should have his team focused on playing better on the defensive end of the court after they allowed Pepperdine to make 44.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last nine games. Saint Mary’s made 53.1% of their shots last night in their victory over the Toreros which was the highest shooting mark they have enjoyed in their last nine contests. The Under is then 35-14-2 in the Gaels’ last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 54-24-1 in their last 79 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Saint Mary’s has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. This Gaels’ team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the West Coast Conference. Moving forward, Saint Mary’s has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga swept the first two meetings between these two teams in the regular season with Saint Mary’s scoring at just a 0.67 PPP and 0.87 PPP rate. The Gaels’ defense improved in the second game after allowing the Zags to torch them for a 1.45 PPP scoring rate. Saint Mary’s improved to see the Bulldogs score at a 1.10 PPP mark which, while still efficient, was below their season average. The Gaels have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least double revenge. Lastly, these two teams have played 20 of their last 26 meetings Under the Total. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-19 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 126 |
Top |
55-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). THE SITUATION: Oregon (18-12) has won three straight games with their 72-61 win at Washington State last Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. Washington (24-6) has won their last two games after they defeated Oregon State on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Oregon has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after winning their last two games. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring only 64.0 PPG on low 40.9% shooting. But the Ducks hold their home hosts to just a 42.9% shooting mark from the field. Head coach Dana Altman’s team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12 — and they have held their last vet opponents to just 41.6% shooting. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Oregon has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Huskies have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They shot 54% from the field against the Beavers which was the best shooting margin in their last ten games. Washington is only making 44.9% of their shots over their last five games despite that strong shooting effort on Wednesday. The Huskies stay at home where hold their guests to just 59.7 PPG on low 38.8% shooting from the field. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Huskies have the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12.
FINAL TAKE: Washington won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 24th when they pulled off a 61-56 upset win in Eugene as a 2.5-point underdog. That game finished below the 132 point Total which made it 6 straight Unders between these two teams. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-19 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 236 |
Top |
105-122 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (565) and the Golden State Warriors (566). THE SITUATION: Denver (43-21) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 115-99 win in Los Angeles over the Lakers as a 5-point favorite. Golden State (44-20) looks to bounce-back from their 128-95 loss to Boston on Tuesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 45.9% of their shots against the Lakers which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. Denver has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Denver stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Nuggets have launched at least 92 shots in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. Moving forward, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Nuggets have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 230s. Golden State saw the Celtics make 51% of their shots (along with 41.2% of their 3-pointers) which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 29 games. The Warriors should use that disappointing effort to make some adjustments on the defensive end of the court including choosing a better way for DeMarcus Cousins to position himself against opponent’s 3-point shooting. Golden State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. This is the time of the season where the Warriors start getting more serious about their defense as they have played 25 of their last 31 games Under the Total in the month of March. Additionally, Golden State has seen the Under go 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. And while Golden State shoots 48.8% from the field, Denver has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams that are making at least 46% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets should be focused on playing better defense against the Warriors after surrendering a whopping 142 points in their 31-point loss to them at home in the Pepsi Center back on January 15th. With this game playing a big role in which of these two teams will finish as the top seed in the Western Conference — and with the home court advantage in the playoffs that this position earns — expect this to be a hard fought game on the defensive end of the court. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (565) and the Golden State Warriors (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-19 |
Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-140 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (45) and the Anaheim Ducks (46). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (34-25-5) has lost four of their last six games with their 4-1 loss to Dallas on Saturday. Anaheim (26-32-7) has won their last two games after they upset Arizona on the road by a 3-1 score last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after losing two straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 7-3-3 in St. Louis’ last 13 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And the Under is 36-17-2 in their last 55 games after a game where they did not score more than two goals. The Blues’ offense has slumped without Brayden Schenn in the lineup as they have only scored nine goals over their last six games while netting only three goals in their last two contests. This team does hope to get Schenn back onto the ice tonight — but thus remains a team that has seen the Under go 18-8-2 in their last 28 games on the road. St. Louis has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored in the -151 to -200 price range. It remains unclear which goaltender interim head coach Craig Berube will choose between the Jordan Pennington and Jake Allen. After allowing nine goals in their last two games, the Blues’ blue-line needs to play better. Either goalie should play well tonight. Pennington has a 1.68 Goals-Against-Average with a .933 save percentage in 21 games (19 starts) in his red-hot rookie season while the veteran Allen enjoys a 2.37 GAA with a .921 save percentage when playing on the road. St. Louis has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25% to 40% range. The Under is 47-16-2 in Anaheim’s last 65 games after a win — and this includes them playing thirteen of their last fifteen home games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least two goals. The Under is also 40-18-1 in the Ducks’ last 59 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. This has been a nightmare season for this Anaheim team — but don’t blame goalie John Gibson who has a 2.72 GAA at home with a .914 save percentage despite disappointing play from their blue line. In his two stars so far this month, the star goalie has a 1.53 GAA with a .949 save percentage. Gibson will be between the pipes tonight after getting last night off — and the Under is 18-6-2 in the Ducks’ last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They are still only scoring 1.5 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games — and their 144 combined goals this season is the lowest number in the NHL. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 15 of the last 21 games Under the Total as a home underdog. Furthermore, Anaheim has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Ducks will be looking to avenge a 5-1 loss at home to the Blues back on January 23rd — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss at home to their opponents. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (45) and the Anaheim Ducks (46). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-19 |
Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 134 |
Top |
72-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (18-12) has lost two straight upset losses in a row after their 83-76 loss at Florida International as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (17-12) has won three of their last four games after their 60-54 upset win at North Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-10-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total off a road loss to a conference rival. Louisiana Tech has the third-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in Conference USA — but they also have just the 9th best offense in terms of that metric. They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% shooting percentage. Now they go on the road where they are scoring only 69.0 PPG while making just 41.6% of their shots from the field. The Under is a decisive 20-5-1 in their last 26 games on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Florida Atlantic has seen the Under go 21-9-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Owls have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset victory. This will be FAU’s second game in their last eight days — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing just for the second time in eight days. The Owls sport the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Conference USA. They have held their last five opponents to just a 36.6% shooting percentage. But FAU struggles to score baskets as they rank 12th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. The Owls return home where they hold their opponents to only 63.7 PPG on low 40.4% shooting. Yet FAU only makes 42.3% of their shots at home. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and the Under is also 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Owls have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is looking to avenge a 69-61 loss hosting FAU back on January 31st when they were 4.5-point home favorites in that game. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and this includes them playing nine of these last eleven situations Under the Total. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-19 |
Kentucky v. Ole Miss UNDER 139 |
Top |
80-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a 71-52 loss at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog. Mississippi (19-10) has lost their last two games after their 74-73 loss at Arkansas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kentucky has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Kentucky is without their floor general in senior Reid Travis who is dealing with a knee injury. The Wildcats made only 31.8% of their shots against the Volunteers without Travis running the offense. Head coach John Calipari will want his team to play better on defense tonight. While the 43.8% field goal percentage that the Volunteers achieved was not a bad effort, it was still the worst defensive performance for the Wildcats in their last twelve contests. Kentucky has held their last five opponents to just a 38.5% field goal percentage. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Kentucky has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Ole Miss has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels made 53.7% of their shots in that narrow loss to the Razorbacks which was the best shooting mark for them in their last nineteen games. Ole Miss is only making 43.9% of their shots over their last five contests. They have also played four straight games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Rebels have played 8 of their last home games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: With Kentucky without Travis, expect this to be a lower-scoring contest. 25* CBB Super Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-19 |
Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL UNDER 136 |
Top |
63-76 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (12-17) has lost twelve games in a row with their 73-49 loss at Virginia on Saturday as an 18-point underdog. Miami (FL) (12-16) has lost their last two games after their 87-57 loss at Duke as a 15-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Pittsburgh has also played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 55 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to reach at least 50 points in their last contest. The Panthers are making only 34.2% of their shots over their last five games — and they are 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. More importantly, when playing on the road, head coach Jeff Capel needs to his team to play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Cavaliers to make 58.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. Pitt has played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Panthers score only 65.5 PPG away from home while making only 38.9% of their shots. Furthermore, the Panthers have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight losses to conference opponents. Miami also comes off a disappointing defensive effort as they allowed the Blue Devils to make 57.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Hurricanes have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. This has been a disappointing season for head coach Jim Larranaga with injuries and the declaration of their best player, Dewan Hernandez, being declared ineligible after accepting payments from an agent. Hernandez never took the court this season and has already declared that he will make himself eligible for the NBA draft in June. Without him anchoring the offense, this team cannot score. Miami is 10th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 38.0% of their shots over their last five games. The Hurricanes return home where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight encounters Under the Total. With both these programs struggling to score baskets this season while coming off disappointing efforts on defense, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-19 |
Wolves v. Wizards OVER 238 |
Top |
121-135 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (585) and the Washington Wizards (586). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (29-33) has lost two straight games with their 122-115 loss at Indiana as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington (25-37) has lost five of their last six games with their 107-96 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Minnesota is shooting 47.2% from the field over their last five games which has translated into 118.6 PPG — but they are also allowing 120.4 PPG over these last five games as well. The T-Wolves have played a decisive 33 of their last 49 games Over the Total with the Total set at least at 220. Now Minnesota goes back on the road where they have played of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They are 9-23 overall on the road where they are allowing 115.1 PPG — but they are scoring 111.1 PPG away from home. Defending the arc has been a problem for the T-Wolves when playing on the road as their home hosts are shooting 38.9% from behind the arc. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. The Over is a decisive 43-21-1 in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. The Over is also 45-20-1 in the Wizards’ last 66 games after a point spread loss. Washington is playing at a blistering pace as of late — they are averaging 105.0 possessions per 48 minutes over their last ten games which is the third fastest pace in the league. Over their last five games, the Wizards are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 118.8 PPG allowed. Washington returns home where they are 16-12 while making 48.5% of their shots this season which has resulted in 117.6 PPG. But the Wizards are also allowing their visitors to 114.5 PPG. Washington has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wizards have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set at least at 220.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing with Washington. While the Over/Under is set in the high-230s to low-240s, expect this game to topple that number between two teams that play at a fast pace while privileging offense over defense. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (585) and the Washington Wizards (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-19 |
Stars v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (79) and the St. Louis Blues (80). THE SITUATION: Dallas (32-27-5) has won two of their last three games after their 4-3 win in Los Angeles against the Kings on Thursday. St. Louis (34-24-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 5-2 loss at Carolina yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 17-6-4 in the Stars’ last 27 games after a victory. Dallas has also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Despite their four goals against the hapless Kings, the Stars are scoring just 2.1 Goals-Per-Game over their last seven contests. They stay on the road where the Under us 21-7-5 in their last 33 games — and the Under is 8-1-3 in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on their home ice. Furthermore, Dallas played 17 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. The Under is also 13-4-4 in the Stars’ last 21 road games as an underdog — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games when priced in the +110 to +150 price range. Ben Bishop should be between the pipes tonight. He has been outstanding since returning from an injury as he owns a 1.81 Goals-Against-Average with a .947 save percentage in his five starts since the All-Star Break. St. Louis has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Under is also 35-17-2 in the Blues’ last 54 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Furthermore, St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. The Blues are scoring only 1.8 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. But they return home where they have won seven straight contests while giving up just 11 goals in those games. St. Louis will turn to their rookie phenom, Jordan Binnington, in goal tonight. Binnington is 15-2 this season with a 1.61 GAA along with a .936 save percentage in 19 games which includes 17 starts. Additionally, the Under is 12-4-1 in the Blues’ last 17 home games as a favorite priced in the -151 to -200 range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (79) and the St. Louis Blues (80). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-01-19 |
Siena v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
62-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Siena (15-14) has won two straight games with their 67-55 win over Marist last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Canisius (13-16) has lost two straight contests after their 86-84 loss to Niagara as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have seen the Under go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a win over a Metro Athletic Association team. Siena has also played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Saints has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Additionally, while Siena has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two contests. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Saints goes back on the road for the first time since February 10th. The Under is 5-1-1 in Siena’s last 7 road games after playing at least their last three games at home. They are making just 42.7% of their shots when playing away from home — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. The Saints have also played 4 straight games against teams with a losing record on their home court — and the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Siena has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the MAAC — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage. The Saints have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Canisius has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. The Golden Griffins have seen the Under go 15-7-1 in their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 17-8-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Canisius has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Now after losing three of their last four games, the Golden Griffins have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Canisius made 52.5% of their shots against the Purple Eagles on Wednesday after making 51.7% of their shots at Iona in their previous game after shooting a miserable 29.8% from the field three games ago at Monmouth. The Golden Griffins have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena is looking to avenge a 70-66 loss to Canisius back on January 5th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-27-19 |
West Ham United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (2000157) and Manchester City (2000158). THE SITUATION: West Ham (10-6-11) enters this English Premier League match coming off a 3-1 win over Fulham last Friday. Manchester City (21-2-4) returns to EPL action after they blasted Chelsea by a 6-0 score back on February 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is playing with plenty of momentum right now as they nip at the heels of Liverpool at the top of the EPL table. The Citizens have scored 17 goals over their last five EPL matches — and they have scored nine goals in their last two matches which were against two Power-Six clubs in Chelsea and Arsenal. Man City has scored at least three goals in four of their last five games as well as five of their last seven matches. Furthermore, they have seen at least four combined goals scored in nine of their last ten matches when playing at home. They lead in the EPL in goals scored and goals scored at home in Etihad Stadium. The Citizens also lead the league in average shots on goal with 17.1 per games — and they also lead the EPL with 20.4 shots per game when playing at home. With Gabriel Jesus dealing with an injury, it looks to be a certainty that manager Pep Guardiola will be playing his best attacker, Sergio Aguero, who will be looking to secure his third straight hat trick when playing on his home pitch. It should be another big scoring day for Man City who is averaging 3.5 Goals-Per-Game in their home ten home matches against non-Power Six sides this season. West Ham does surrender plenty of shot attempts: they allow 13.3 shots per game which is the seventh most in the league — and that number rises to 16.2 shots allowed per game which is sixth worst in the EPL. The Hammers have played only two matches on the road against Power-Six sides where they allowed seven combined goals. The deeper metrics suggest that West Ham has been fairly fortunate in the goals they have allowed. The Hammers have surrendered 40 goals this season but the Expected Goals allowed metric raises that number to 43.05. Furthermore, West Ham has allowed 20 goals this season when playing on the road — but the Expected Goals allowed when playing on the road rises to 23.50. This will be manager Manuel Pellegrini’s first trip back to the Etihad after he was sacked as the Man City manager in 2016. Pellegrini embraces an aggressive style — he wants his team to attack rather than park the bus in the back. Once Man City takes the lead, the goals should keep coming with the Hammers having a decent chance of securing one of the goals to reach our target of four combined goals.
FINAL TAKE: Man City is clicking on all cylinders right now. If they do not score the four goals themselves in this contest, there is a good chance that West Ham will add goal themselves to the total. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (2000157) and Manchester City (2000158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-19 |
Michigan State v. Michigan UNDER 134 |
Top |
77-70 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (22-5) has won four straight games with their 71-60 win over Rutgers on Wednesday as a 15.5-point favorite. Michigan (24-3) has won four of their last five games with their 69-60 win at Minnesota on Thursday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go 22-6-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 9 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games against fellow Big Ten opponents. This is a team hit hard by two big injuries. Joshua Langford is out the season with an ankle injury while Nick Ward is out indefinitely with a hand injury. That leaves much of the offensive burden on guard Cassius Winston — and he was absolutely owned last year by the Wolverines’ elite defender Xavier Simpson. In their two upset losses to Michigan last season, Winston made only 6 of his 17 shots from the floor while going 1 for 6 from behind the arc while averaging just 11.0 PPG with 3.5 assists. Scoring is going to be hard to come by for Sparty in this game as they are making only 44.8% of their shots over their last five games dealing with these injuries — they will have to rely on their strong defensive play to stay competitive in this game. Michigan State goes on the road where they do hold their home hosts to just a 38.8% field goal percentage. The Spartans have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Michigan State’s last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Under is also 18-7-1 in Michigan’s last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Wolverines have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This is Michigan’s just second game since last Saturday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. The Wolverines return home where they are 16-0 this season while holding their visitors to just a 39.7% field goal percentage. Michigan has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This Wolverines team can suffer through cold stretches on offense. While Simpson is one of the best defensive players in the nation, he is not a threat from his outside shooting which allows opposing defenses to play off him and help on other players. John Beilein offenses emphasize 3-point shooting but they are making only 33.2% of their 3-pointers in Big Ten play (7th in the conference).
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play outstanding defense: the Spartans rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while the Wolverines rank 2nd in the nation in that metric. These teams do not like each other — and this is a very heated rivalry after Michigan upset them twice last season. This will slow and physical with the first team to reach 60 points the likely winner. 25* CBB Sunday CBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Nets v. Hornets OVER 227 |
Top |
117-115 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (537) and the Charlotte Hornets (538). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (30-30) has lost three of their last four games with their 113-99 loss to Portland on Thursday as a 3-point underdog. Charlotte (28-30) returned from the All-Star break last night with a 123-110 win over Washington as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nets have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. That game also finished far below the 231.5 point total — and Brooklyn has then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Nets made only 39.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Brooklyn should see an uptick in their offensive productivity with Caris LeVert back in the mix — this will be his fifth game since returning to the court after suffering that gruesome leg injury. The Trail Blazers were also dealing with rust in their shooting as they shot just 43.8% from the field which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Nets’ last five contests. Brooklyn has still allowed their last five opponents to shoot 49.1% from the field. The Nets now go on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have also played 22 of their last 29 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Hornets allow 111.3 PPG, Brooklyn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow at least 106 PPG. Charlotte’s five starters logged in 166:56 combined minutes last night — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing the previous day where their five starters combined to play at least 160 minutes. Head coach James Borrego made an intriguing change in the lineup last night by moving Jeremy Lamb to the second unit to make room for their first-round draft pick Miles Bridges at forward with Nicolas Batum shifting to the shooting guard spot. The early results were very encouraging with Batum scoring 20 points and Bridges adding another 14 points. Lamb will be asked for instant offense leading the second unit alongside their veteran point guard Tony Parker — Lamb pitched in another 16 points last night off the bench. Overall, they shot a solid 47.9% from the field as a team while holding a cold shooting Wizards team to just a 43.3% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games and far below their opponent’s field goal percentage of 47.9% for the season. The Hornets stay at home where they have played 18 of their last 23 home games Over the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. Additionally, Charlotte has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. The Hornets have also played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. This team plays at a blistering pace which has helped them launch at least 90 shots in three straight games with them attempting 94 and 96 shots in their last two contests. Charlotte has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. The Nets play at a fast pace as well which translates into 90 shot attempts per game — and the Hornets have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents that laugh at least 88 shots per game. Brooklyn allows their opponents to score 112.7 PPG — and Charlotte has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 110 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn has averaged 104.8 possessions per 48 minutes over their last ten games which leads the NBA over that span. With the Hornets happy to engage in that up-tempo style, expect a high scoring game between these two teams that tend to struggle on the defensive end of the court. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (537) and the Charlotte Hornets (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-19 |
Hurricanes v. Stars UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
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At 5:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (39) and the Dallas Stars (40). THE SITUATION: Carolina (32-23-4) has won four of their last five games with their 4-3 win at Florida on Thursday. Dallas (30-25-5) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 5-2 win over St. Louis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a victory. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games on the road where both teams scored at least three goals. Now they stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. Carolina is playing outstanding defense as of late for first-year head coach Rod Brind’Amour as they are allowing only 1.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Brind’Amour will likely tap Curtis McElhinney to be between the pipes tonight after Petr Mrazek played on Thursday. McElhinney has been outstanding since the All-Star Game as he owns a 1.80 Goals-Against-Average over his last five starts with a .942 save percentage in those contests. The Hurricanes opened as small money-line underdog but now have bet down to a mutual -110 money-line favorite with the Stars — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored in the -110 to 1-50 price range. Dallas has seen the Under go 13-3-3 in their last 19 games after a victory — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after scoring at least five goals in their last contest. Additionally, the Stars have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored. That offensive came out of nowhere as they have scored only ten combined goals in their previous six contests. Dallas is averaging only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. They stay at home where they at home where they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored in the -110 to -150 price range — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Ben Bishop returns to action tonight after he missed a couple weeks with an injury. He had been playing great as he owned a 1.67 GAA along with a .947 save percentage in his previous three starts since the All-Star break. Bishop also enjoys a 2.17 GAA in his twenty starts at home this year with a strong .929 save percentage in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this to be a lower-scoring contest. 25* NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (39) and the Dallas Stars (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-19 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
86-91 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (14-11) has won three of their last four games with their 63-60 win at Texas State on Thursday as a 5-point favorite. UT-Arlington (12-15) has lost three straight games after suffering their second straight upset loss on Thursday when they lost at home to UL-Lafayette by a 76-64 score as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mavericks on Thursday in a situation I really liked — so that result was a big disappointment. But in researching that game, it afforded me the opportunity to dig deep into what Chris Ogden is doing with this UT-Arlington program in his first year as their head coach. Ogden inherited only 15% of the minutes from UT-Arlington’s senior-laden team the year before. After working as an assistant for Chris Beard at Texas Tech and Rick Barnes both at Texas and Tennessee, it is clear that Ogden knows how to teach defense. The Mavericks lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. After allowing Arkansas State to shoot 51.9% from the field, I expected a much better defensive effort — and I was correct on that front as UT-Arlington held the Ragin’ Cajuns to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. The problem was that the Mavericks made only 42.9% of their shots against a Red Wolves team that does not play good defense. Unfortunately for Ogden, that field goal percentage was still their best shooting mark in their last three contests. This is simply not a good shooting team — they are last in the Sun Belt in both effective field goal percentage and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. What UT-Arlington does best on offense is crash the boards as they rank 3rd in the conference by pulling down 32.1% of their missed shots. I thought this is where they would dominate Louisiana (and they did pull down 10 offensive boards representing a 30.3% rate). But getting second-chance scoring opportunities will be much harder this afternoon against this War Hawks team that leads the Sun Belt by holding their opponents to just a 25.0% offensive rebound rate. The Mavericks will have to lean on their defense — they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting mark. UT-Arlington has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while their loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns finished below the 150.5 point total, the Mavericks have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. UT-Arlington stays at home where they are 7-5 this season but where they are making only 40.7% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less against conference rivals. The Warhawks have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. UL-Monroe made 49.1% of their shots in that game — and they have made at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight games. But the Warhawks have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after shooting at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight contests. Head coach Keith Richard emphasizes 3-point shooting — his team is second in the Sun Belt by collecting 37.9% of their points from 3-pointers. But Ogden has been very good teaching his team to defend the arc and force opposing shooters to take low percentage jump shots inside the arc. Only 30.9% of their opponent’s points are coming from made 3-pointers which is the third-best mark in the conference — and UT-Arlington then leads the conference by holding their opponents to just a 46.2% field goal percentage inside the arc. UL-Monroe stays on the road where they are 3-10 while making only 42.7% of their shots. The Warhawks have played 39 of their last 55 road games Under the Total — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total in Sun Belt play. And in their last 38 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 28 times — and this includes ten Unders in these last thirteen situations.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a defensive battle between two teams that struggle to make shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-19 |
Crystal Palace v. Leicester UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-134 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
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At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Crystal Palace (200021) and Leicester City (200022). THE SITUATION: Crystal Palace (7-6-13) returns to the pitch after a 1-1 draw with West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on February 9th. Leicester City (9-5-12) looks to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss at Tottenham back on February 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Crystal Palace is unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions — and they are getting it done with strong defensive play. The Eagles have scored only four goals in their last three EPL contests — but they have surrendered just two goals in those contests. Crystal Palace goes on the road where they are 4-2-7 this season while scoring 18 goals and surrendering 22 goals. But the deeper metrics indicate they should be playing lower scoring games when playing in hostile territory. Their Expected Goals scored number drops significantly to just 13.72 goals in those thirteen contests — and their Expected Goals allowed also drops to 18.66. Looking closer, a disproportionate number of the goals being scored when the Eagles are on the road are in matches versus the Power Six clubs. In their nine matches on the road against non-Power Six sides, Crystal Palace has scored 11 goals while allowing only 13 goals which is right on track for an Under in this contest. Leicester City is winless in their last five EPL matches. They are struggling to find the back of the net as they have scored only two goals over their last three matches. Manager Claude Puel chose not to start his best attacker, Jamie Vardy, in that last match against the Spurs. Vardy did come on as a substitute and scored the Foxes loan goal — but it is not clear if he is in the doghouse or if Puel is simply dissatisfied with his effort. Leicester City returns home where they are 4-2-6 this season. They have only scored 13 goals in their last twelve home matches which the fourth lowest in the EPL. But the Foxes have allowed only 13 goals at home as well so they are used to playing tight, low-scoring matches on their pitch. In their last three home contests, Leicester City has scored only one goal while surrendering four. Puel has his team playing a defensive-oriented strategy. In their seventeen matches against non-Power Six sides, the Foxes have allowed only 19 goals. Goals are even harder to come by when Leicester City is hosting a non-Power Six team. In those fourteen matches, the Foxes have scored 13 goals and allowed 13 goals to produce an average that is below 2.0 combined goals per game. Furthermore, in their last five home matches against non-Power Six sides, Leicester City has scored 5 times while allowing only 4 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams do a good job of limiting their opponents shot opportunities. Crystal Palace is 7th in the EPL by allowing 12.5 shots per game. Leicester City is 5th in the league by allowing only 11.6 shots per game — and that number drops to just 10 shots per game when they are playing at home at King Power Stadium which is the 4th best mark in the English Premier League. 25* EPL Saturday NBC-TV O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Crystal Palace (200021) and Leicester City (200022). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-20-19 |
North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 |
Top |
88-72 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (20-5) has won eight of their last nine games after their 95-57 win at Wake Forest as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (23-2) has won nine games in a row with their 94-78 win over North Carolina State as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is certainly tempting to expect a high-scoring game between these two offensive juggernauts that play at the 3rd and 11th fastest paces in the nation. However, the Over tends to be overvalued in situations like this by the betting public. While my handicapping is very much informed by empirical situational angles, I rarely include them in my (already too long) Reports. I will share two historical angles that speak loudly to tonight’s situation with the Total set in the mid-160s. North Carolina and Duke are two elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by +12.2 PPG and +20.3 PPG — yet when teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG in the second half of the season with the Total set in the 160s, the game has then finished Under the Total in 72 of the last 106 (68%) situations where these conditions applied. This simple angle exposes two truths: (1) elite teams also tend to play very good defense and (2) the pressure inherent in heavyweight matchups tends to negatively impact shooting. Furthermore, great teams tend to rebound the ball well which leads to extending offensive possessions (with a new shot clock) and short-circuited the opponent’s offensive possessions (who often rely on second-chance points for their effectiveness). The Tar Heels and the Blue Devils out-rebound their opponents by +9.4 RPG and +7.2 RPG — and after 15 games into the season in contests between two teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +6.0 RPG with the Total set in the 160s, the game finished Under the Total in 26 of these last 34 (77%) situations. Both these teams play outstanding defense: North Carolina is 20th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Duke ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Tar Heels have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Both these teams have significant flaws on offense that their opponent will attempt to expose tonight. Bettors may still remember Duke’s torrid 3-point shooting in their high-profile showdown with Virginia two Saturdays ago where they nailed 13 of 21 (62%) of their shots from behind the arc. But the Regression Gods have since visited the Blue Devils as they have since made only 10 of their 44 (22.7%) of their 3-point attempts in their next two games. Duke is 305th in the nation with a 31.3% mark from behind the arc — and that number drops even further to a 30.5% clip in ACC play. My concerns for North Carolina on offense are qualitative when facing outstanding opponents. Roy Williams wants to play two traditional big men still — yet his best five on the court probably requires him to use a smaller (and more explosive) lineup with Luke Maye playing at the 5. I also don’t like the matchup Coby White faces tonight against the Blue Devils’ Tre Jones who is an absolute menace on defense. White has tended to disappear this season with games — and that stalls the Tar Heels offense: White scored 12 points in a loss to Michigan where his team put up 67 points; he scored 4 points in a loss to Louisville where UNC scored 62 points; he scored 8 points in a loss to Kentucky where UNC scored 72 points. The Tar Heels usually score 87.5 PPG but those three results represent three of their four lowest point outputs this season (with their most recent loss to Virginia who plays at a crawl being the fourth sample). Additionally, North Carolina may be due for a visit from the Regression Gods after they shot a season-high 62.3% in their win over the Demon Deacons. They made 16 of 25 (64%) of their 3-pointers in that win — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Tar Heels 3-point shooting by a Duke team that is 14th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage of 29.7% that lowers to a 27.3% mark when at home. Speaking of regression, the Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Finally, North Carolina has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 160s while Duke has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the number in the 160 to 169.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Team trends can be very helpful in identifying how teams typically respond to situations like this — and this particularly true in college basketball when dealing with established coaches like Williams and Mike Krzyzewski who deploy consistent styles of play from year-to-year. The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams with the Under also 3-0-1 in the last 4 encounters at Cameron Indoor. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-14-19 |
Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State OVER 145 |
Top |
73-85 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (10-17) has won two straight games with their 86-72 upset win at South Dakota as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. North Dakota State (13-12) has won four straight games with their 81-71 win over Denver on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles have played 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 22 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Oral Roberts has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 31 of their last 40 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game which includes thirteen of those last fifteen situations going Over the Total. This Oral Roberts team may have found their shooting stroke as they made 56.1% of their shots against South Dakota after making 51.1% of their shots against Denver in their previous game. The Golden Eagles have also 14 of 15 and 17 of 20 from the free throw line in their last two contests — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 78% from the charity stripe in at least two straight games. Now Oral Roberts stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Golden Eagles have also played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. North Dakota State has played 24 of their last 32 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Bison has played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and this includes them playing eight of these last nine situations going Over the Total. And while North Dakota State has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. The Bison stay at home where they are scoring 79.6 PPG while making 49.3% of their shots. North Dakota State has played 22 of their last 29 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bison have played 14 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts is looking to avenge a 67-57 loss to North Dakota State loss to the Bison back on January 26th — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge. In the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Fargo, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-13-19 |
Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 137.5 |
Top |
61-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (16-8) has lost three straight games with their 79-55 loss at Michigan State last Saturday as a 13.5-point underdog. Nebraska (13-11) has lost seven in a row with their 81-62 loss at Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Gophers should play better on defense after allowing the Spartans to make 51.7% of their shots from the field. That was the second-worst opponent’s field goal percentage that they have allowed in their last seven games. Minnesota has been consistently inconsistent this season — so a good effort looks likely for this veteran team that plays tough and physical when at their best. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Golden Gophers stay on the road where they are 4-6 this season. They struggle to score points when away from home as they average just 63.4 PPG on the road while making just 38.9% of their shots. The Under is 9-1-1 in Minnesota’s last 11 games on the road — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Nebraska has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Cornhuskers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Nebraska should play much better on defense tonight after allowing the Boilermakers to make 50.9% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. Tim Miles’ team usually plays strong on defense as they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. Miles will want his team to work harder on the boards after being out-rebounded by a 39 to 24 margin. The Cornhuskers have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards. The problem for this team during their losing streak has been their inability to hit a side of a barn on offense. They are making just 32% of their shots over their last five games which translated into just 56.4 PPG. While the Regression Gods may decide to let all their bank shots from behind the arc rattle into the basket — I do not think that happens tonight with Isaac Copeland, Jr. out with a knee injury. The forward is the team’s second-leading scorer with a 14.0 PPG average. Nebraska returns home where they are 9-4 this season but making only 42.7% of their shots. The Cornhuskers' recipe for success at home is on defense where they hold their opponents to only 56.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just a 35.7% field goal percentage. Nebraska has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Cornhuskers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This will be a rematch of the meeting between these two teams back on December 5th where the Golden Gophers won in Minnesota by an 85-78 score. Nebraska has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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