At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (8-10) snapped their two-game with a 93-78 victory against Pacific as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday. San Diego (10-8) has lost three games in a row after their 83-63 loss at home to San Francisco as a 10-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wave was never a good defensive team this season — and they are getting crushed on that end of the court now that conference play has started. Pepperdine has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last three games in conference action — and West Coast Conference opponents are nailing 51.5% of their shots resulting in 80.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wave ranks 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 333rd in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 54.2%. Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter as their opponents are making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 336th in the nation. Pepperdine has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 32 of their last 49 games Over the Total on the road after allowing 75 or more points in three straight contests. The Wave have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they scored 85 or more points. Pepperdine can score with points — Michael Ajayi leads the WCC in scoring while Houston Mallet has potential NBA talent. The Wave is making 45.6% of their shots in conference play resulting in a respectable 75.6 PPG. But now they go back on the road where their home hosts make 54.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.3 PPG. Pepperdine has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total in conference play. San Diego has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss at home by double-digits. The Toreros have allowed their last three opponents to make 51.7% or more of their shots — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. San Diego is not a great defensive team either — they rank 169th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they are perhaps now getting exposed in conference play. In their first three games against West Coast Conference rivals, they are allowing them to make 53.9% of their shots resulting in 88.3 PPG. The Toreros play in high-possession games as well — they rank 41st in the nation with 72.1 adjusted possessions per game. Their opponents only average 16.1 seconds per possession with the ball which is the sixth quickest in the nation. San Diego is scoring 73.4 PPG at home — and they should be able to make 3-pointers against this Waves perimeter defense since they rank 112th in the nation by making 35.1% of their shots from behind the arc. The Toreros have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego won both meetings last season with both games seeing 165 and 181 combined points scored. Pepperdine has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver  — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282) in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits expect this contest to be a high-scoring game — but there are clues from when these teams played in the Alamo Bowl that suggest this will be lower-scoring than expected. Despite these two teams each gaining at least 420 yards and combining for 865 total yards of offense, only 47 combined points were scored in Washington’s 27-20 victory. Texas could not run the ball against the Huskies’ defensive front as they only gained 51 yards on 18 carries as the offense became one-dimensional. The Longhorns were committed to limiting the explosiveness of the Washington passing attack so they played a quarters scheme in their secondary which stymied quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. to just one completion of 20 or more air yards. The Huskies moved the ball methodically with Penix completing all 11 of his screen passes to wide receivers and the ground game gobbling up 158 yards on 28 carries. Washington controlled time of possession by having the ball for 35:46 minutes of that game to keep Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers off the field. The Huskies deployed a similar strategy against the Ducks last month as their offense was on the field for 37:08 minutes of that game — and that helped them limit the explosive Oregon offense to just 17 first downs and only 363 total yards. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival by seven points or less. And while their win against Oregon was preceded by a narrow 24-21 victory against Washington State in the Apple Cup, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals by seven points or less. Additionally, Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road on field turf. And while the Longhorns score 36.2 PPG, the Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 34 or more PPG. Washington generates 470.4 total YPG — but Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average 450 or more YPG. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for 325 or more yards in their last contest. The Longhorns have scored 106 combined points in their last two games while gaining 662 and 528 yards in those contests — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards of offense in two games in a row. Despite these dynamic offensive numbers, there are some concerns underneath the hood. Texas ranks 121st in the country in Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they are only 72nd in the country in Finishing Drives. Long possessions that end in field goals ruin Overs when the Total is set in the 60s or higher. Ewers only averages 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which is the lowest of the four quarterbacks playing in the semifinals — and his Total QBR ranking of 15th in the nation is also the lowest of the final four QBs. The Longhorns rank 89th in the nation in Explosiveness in the passing game. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Texas boasts an elite run defense led by their two anchors on the defensive line, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They only allow 80.8 rushing YPG so the Huskies may struggle to match their rushing numbers from the Alamo Bowl last year. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a bye week.  

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a blindingly fast pace. Red Zone stops, limited explosiveness, and both teams working the Time of Possession battle is a great recipe for a lower-than-expected combined score. Texas has played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total when favored — and Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Toledo (11-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 23-14 loss to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Wyoming (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 42-6 victory at Nevada as an 11-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without their top two offensive players in this game after both starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone entered the transfer portal. Finn was the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year while Boone rushed for 1400 yards on 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Their losses are significant. As it is, while Toledo generated 428.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 33.6 Points-Per-Game, those drop to 399.3 YPG and 25.9 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Toledo has a tough defense that held their opponents to just 329.7 total YPG and 20.6 PPG. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is expected to opt-put — but the Rockets' secondary is loaded with experience and talent led by safety Maxen Hook who is a two-time All-MAC award winner. Toledo has only forced one turnover in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game. Wyoming held the Wolf Pack to just 201 yards in their most recent game. The Cowboys held their opponents to only 22.9 PPG this season. Wyoming has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they limited Nevada to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 4 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to 4.0 or fewer YPP. They outgained the Wolf Pack by +208 net yards — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG. The Cowboys have only given up 85 total rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. With this being head coach Craig Bohl’s final game with the team before his retirement, a spirited effort is expected. But the offensive side of the ball has faced some turmoil after offensive coordinator Tim Polasek left to take the head coaching job at North Dakota State. In their five games away from home, the Cowboys generated only 286.6 total YPG resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Wyoming has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo is outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG — and the Cowboys have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total against opponents winning 60-75% of their games. 25* CFB Group of Five Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 66-61 victory against Boise State as a 2.5-point favorite on December 21st. Utah (9-2) has won six games in a row with their 85-43 win against Bellarmine as a 20.5-point favorite on December 20th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars have played 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They play stout defense for head coach Kyle Smith — they are holding their opponents to 37.3% shooting resulting in 62.5 Points-Per-Game. Washington State will slow this game down — they average 17.3 seconds per possession, ranking 179th in Adjusted Pace while their opponents take 18.0 seconds per possession, ranking 302nd in Adjusted Pace. The Cougars rank fifth in the nation in Opponent’s Effective Field Goal Percentage of 42.5% — and they rank in the top-19 in the country in opponent 3-point shooting and 2-point shooting. They also rank 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.7% of their missed shots. And their block rate of 15.5% of their opponent’s shot attempts ranks 12th in the country. Washington State has been a bit unlucky with their opponents’ free throws as well — their opponents have made 76.5% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 342nd in the nation. The Utes only make 71.3% of their free throws, so the Cougars should get some points back in that area tonight. Overall, Washington State ranks 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to 24th in the nation in that metric when playing away from home with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark of 93.8. But while the Cougars rank 89th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 197th in that category when away from home with a 101.6 efficiency mark. The 67.2 PPG they score away from home is a -10.2 net PPG drop from their overall average. Washington State has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Utah has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop by -1.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing at home where they rank 56th in the nation. But the Utes are holding their opponents to 37.8% shooting resulting in 63.2 PPG with their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 38th in the nation — and that ranking improving to 20th in the country with that mark lowering to 89.8. Utah ranks eighth in the nation in Opponent’s Free Throw Rate. The Utes have held their last three opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing three straight opponents to shoot better than 40%.

FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Washington State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (35) and the New Jersey Devils (36). THE SITUATION: Columbus (11-18-6) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Toronto on Saturday. New Jersey (17-13-2) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 3-2 victory against Detroit on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jackets defense is a disaster — they have allowed at least three goals in six straight games with five of those six opponents scoring at least four goals. But Columbus has generated 4.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. The Blue Jackets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four contests. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Columbus will have Elvis Merzlikins between the pipes tonight — but it has been a struggle given his 3.57 Goals-Against-Average and a .897 save percentage in ten starts on the road. New Jersey is a potent scoring team with lots of depth — they have eight players with at least seven goals this season. Jack Hughes leads the way with 14 goals and 38 points in 26 games. Jesper Bratt has added 13 goals and 37 points in his 31 games. The Devils are generating 3.4 Goals-Per-Game. The reason why they are underachieving is their defense and goaltending. New Jersey ranks 30th in the NHL by allowing 3.61 Goals-Per-Game. The Devils have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win at home. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by just one goal. And in their last six games when playing with three or more days of rest, New Jersey has played 5 of these games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Vitek Vanecek gets the nod as their goaltender tonight — he has a rough 3.38 GAA and a .880 save percentage in his 13 games (11 starts) at home this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Devils won the last meeting between these teams back on December 16th in Columbus by a 6-3 score — and the Blue Jackets have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (35) and the New Jersey Devils (36). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 562 total yards against the Bearcats — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Big 12 conference rival — and they have played 6 straight Overs after losing two of their last three games. The program did lose offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. Quarterback Jason Bean will lead an offense that ranks ninth in Pass Success Rate. Bean joins running back Devin Neal to form an explosive rushing attack that ranks 17th in Rushing Success Rate. By deploying plenty of counter schemes, Kansas sees 25% of their rushing plays go for at least 12 yards. But the Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in  28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And in their last 33 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games, they played 23 of those games Over the Total. UNLV has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss to a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference opponent. They have also played 39 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. But the UNLV defense is vulnerable as they have given up 477.0 YPG and 36.0 PPG in their last three contests. They rank 126th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Rebels allowed 8.24 Yards-Per-Play to the Broncos in the MWC Championship Game — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP in their last contest. That game against Boise State finished Over the 62.5-point Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has scored 31 or more points in nine of their games — and Kansas has scored 31 or more points in eight of their contests. The Jayhawks have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when getting at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-12) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (14-14) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was just a few years ago when I was grappling with Golden State games on Christmas Day where the Total reached the rarified air of 230 or higher. Now four of the five games today have Totals set at 235 or higher. Some observers think this is a result of the ever-improving skill set of the players. It’s not. More 3-point shooting combined with more teams playing at a faster pace has contributed to the higher-scoring games — but the key ingredient for these big totals remains the lack of effort on defense. The nightcap tonight features two teams who consider defense an afterthought. Dallas ranks 23rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 122.2 Points-Per-Game. Led by Luka Doncic who may be enjoying his best season yet in his career, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG themselves this season. They did hold the woeful Spurs to 44.9% shooting two days ago which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory, the Mavericks have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Dallas is dealing with several injuries impacting their depth. Kyrie Irving has been out since December 8th with a foot injury. The team has been without rookie Derrick Lively II as well with an ankle injury — and his absence has taken away their best rim protector. He is listed as questionable to possibly return to action tonight (I like the Over even if he plays, FYI). Now the Mavericks go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix only made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Suns have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to the Kings finished far below the 244-point total, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their previous contest. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Phoenix returns home where they are making 48.7 of their shots resulting in 116.9 PPG. The Suns have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored. Phoenix is dealing with injuries as well. Bradley Beal is once again out with his back issues. Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons as well leaving the team without their best rim protector. As it is, the Suns rank just 17 in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.6% of their shots resulting in 118.4 PPG. Led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, this team is not doing much besides putting up scoring points while drastically underachieving their preseason expectations. Phoenix has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots —and the Suns have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with opponent field goal percentages of 46% or higher. And while Phoenix has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.3%, the Mavericks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a victory by three points or less at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while quarterback Jake Browning has led his team to at least 27 points in three straight games, Cincinnati has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a two-game home stand. As it is, Cincinnati is generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Steelers have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 11 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two more Overs in a row. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog. After gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 18 points in five straight games — and now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured. But if there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Cincinnati has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans has played 6 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to under ten points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Saints have played two straight Unders — and not only have them played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game, they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. The problem for this team is that they managed only 296 total yards in beating the Giants last week. New Orleans is generating only 288.3 total YPG in their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. The Saints have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles held the Commanders to just 297 total yards in their win last week. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Los Angeles offense has generated 418.9 total YPG in their last three games — and they have gained at least 399 yards in four straight contests. But the Rams have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. The Rams are only scoring 23.0 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium — but they are holding their guests to 20.1 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 straight Unders in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While Lamar Jackson gets most of the attention, it is the Ravens' defense that has led the way for them this season. The Baltimore defense ranks second in the league in efficiency according to the DVOAS metrics at the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing up impressive schemes that have generated 49 combined sacks from 15 different players and each position group. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they scored 31 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Ravens go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 15.7 Points-Per-Game. But while Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season, those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Jacksonville managed only 293 total yards last week in their loss a Cleveland. Now they return home where they are generating 315.7 total YPG resulting ing 21.8 PPG — those are drops by -2.2 PPG and -27.0 YPG from their season averages. The Jaguars have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-10) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 122-119 victory at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (3-20) has lost 18 games in a row after that setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers made 53.8% of their shots on Wednesday despite LeBron James taking the night off with his nagging left calf issue. James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight — but I suspect both will play tonight (and I was skeptical about James playing on Wednesday). James and Davis are listed as questionable for most games as a way to soft-play load management. With this game on national television (ESPN) in an opportunity to pad some stats, both stars have incentives to play. Perhaps this game against the lowly Spurs is an opportunity for Davis to get the night off (with James returning to action) — and that only helps our Over play since Davis is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Lakers are clicking on offense with an attack that lives in transition and thrives at the rim. Los Angeles is second in the NBA in shot frequency at the rim where they are then making 70.2% of their shots — and they lead the NBA in transition possessions. In their last five games, the Lakers are nailing 50.2% of their shots which results in 121.8 Points-Per-Game. LA has made at least 53.4% of their shots in their last four contests — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have played 23 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six contests. This is Los Angeles’ third game on the road since Tuesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in their last four games. They stay on the road where they are making 49.4% of their shots which results in 115.1 PPG — but they are allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots and 117.2 PPG. The Lakers have not engaged with as much urgency lately in games outside the In-Season Tournament on the defensive end of the court lately. Their last five opponents are making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc -- and they rank 23rd in transition defense during that span. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Spurs allowed the Lakers to score 62 points in the paint — they rank 26th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 67.9% of their shots within four feet. They also are turning the ball over too much as head coach Greg Popovich continues to audition second-year forward Jeremy Sochan as their point guard. San Antonio ranks 26th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions — and those miscues will create more scoring opportunities for the Lakers in transition. The Spurs stay at home where they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to their 31.2% shooting from 3-point range when on the road. They raise their shooting percentage by +1.7% when playing at home with a 46.9% mark — and the 114.9 PPG scoring average at home is an improvement of +5.1 points versus their season average. But San Antonio also allowed 122.3 PPG at home which is a +0.9 rise over their season average as well. The Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has played 30 of their last 48 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. The Lakers have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Spurs have played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. But the Giants managed only 220 total yards against New England last week — and in their last three games, they are generating just 228.0 total Yards-Per-Game. In their last four games, they are scoring just 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored more than 17 points only once in their last ten games. New York has played 36 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 56 games after holding their previous opponent to less than 10 points, they have played 39 of those games Under the Total. They do stay at home for this one where they are generating just 237.8 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 7.4 PPG — but they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. The Giants have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home. Green Bay held the Chiefs offense to just 337 total yards of offense in their victory last week. The Packers are ninth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.5 PPG. Linebacker Rashan Gary is becoming a superstar in the league — he has 9.5 sacks this season with 4.5 of them coming in the last three weeks. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Packers' three straight victories have coincided with them winning the turnover battle in all three games. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after two straight games where they won the turnover battle — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle for three straight contests. And while they have scored 56 combined points in two straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Now they go back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Giants have played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). THE SITUATION: Michigan (4-5) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after a 78-75 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 90-65 loss at Iowa State as an 8-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After opening the season by playing good team defense, the play on that end of the court has fallen apart for the Wolverines. After the Hoosiers made 51.7 of their shots against them, Michigan has allowed four of their last six opponents to make at least 50.0% of their shots. Their last five opponents are making 48.0% of their shots which is resulting in 77.2 Points-Per-Game. The Wolverines rank 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The weakest link has been their perimeter defense as their opponents are nailing 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 349th in the nation. Michigan has remained competitive in most of their games because of their balanced offensive attack. They rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based on their balanced scoring attack — they rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.7%. They are making 49.1% of their shots including 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc to generate 81.2 PPG. The Wolverines have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. And while this is Michigan’s second game since last Saturday, they have played 28 of their latest 39 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. Iowa only made 38.6% of their shots against the Cyclones — and that was on the heels of their 38.5% shooting effort at Purdue in their previous game. The Cyclones have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while Iowa State has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are making 51.1% of their shots including 39.2% of their 3-pointers which is resulting in 99.7 PPG. Facing the porous Wolverines' defense may be just what the doctor ordered for this Hawkeyes team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Iowa struggles on the other end of the court where they rank 147th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which has resulted in those five opponents to average 81.2 PPG. The Hawkeyes have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total in Big Ten play — and Michigan has played 30 of their last 42 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won three games in a row after their 27-20 victory against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (4-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 17-10 victory against Carolina as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts held the Buccaneers to just 298 yards last week as they continue to play very good defense. Through Week Eight of the season, Indianapolis was giving up 371 Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 28 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Nine in their three games (including their bye week), they have held their last three opponents to just 304.3 YPG and 13.0 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 20 points. They have risen to 11th in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now located at FTN). Digging deeper into those numbers, through the first eight weeks of the season they were allowing 247 passing YPG and their opponents were scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone at a 64% clip. Since then, they are giving up only 161 passing YPG — and their opponents are scoring touchdowns in just 22% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The Colts defense is doing a great job in forcing turnovers — they have forced at least one turnover in 16 straight games and they have eight takeaways in their last four contests. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Now they face a Titans team generating only 284.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are not averaging more than 285 YPG. Gardner Minshew has been steady under center for this team replacing the injured Anthony Richardson — but this is the Colts' just second true road game in their last six contests after one of their technical road games was in Germany. They are generating just 299.2 total YPG on the road which is resulting in 22.0 PPG. Indianapolis has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is nursing a thumb injury. Minshew has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 87 throws. Tennessee only managed 264 total yards last week — but they did hold the Panthers to just 258 yards of offense in their victory. Since making a big splash in his professional debut against Atlanta at the end of October, rookie quarterback Will Levis has been only okay since. He has only thrown two touchdown passes in his last four starts — and he is completing under 60% of his passes. Running back Derrick Henry appears to have lost a step or two. The Titans are averaging only 103 rushing YPG this season which ranks 21st in the league and is the lowest number for this team since 2015. Tennessee has scored no more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have generated just 236.0 total YPG in their last three contests which is resulting in only 12.3 PPG. But the Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in three of their last four contests. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 288.3 total YPG and 15.0 PPG. Tennessee has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Additionally, the Titans have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, while the Colts are allowing 24.4 PPG, Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders against teams allowing 24.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against division foes. Tennessee is avenging a 23-16 loss in Indy as a 2-point road favorite on October 8th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318) in the SEC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-0) has won 29 straight games after their 31-23 victory against Georgia Tech as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. Alabama (11-1) has won ten straight games after a 27-24 win at Auburn on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This Bulldogs team is not quite as stout as it has been the previous two seasons. Being a feeder to the NFL has eventually taken its toll on this unit, especially up front. Georgia only ranks 81st in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Now they face Jalen Milroe who has a body type like another former Crimson Tide quarterback — Jalen Hurts. Milroe is averaging 7.24 Yards-Per-Carry (excluding sacks). The Bulldogs have allowed 20 or more points in six of their last nine games after the Yellow Jackets put up 23 points on the scoreboard. Georgia has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread including five of those six circumstances this season. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. And in their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row, they have played 6 of those games Over the Total. But while their defensive front is not quite as dominant this season, the Georgia offensive line is stacked with at least four future NFLers in that group. The Bulldogs have allowed only ten quarterback sacks all season — and quarterback Carson Beck has been outstanding when given time in the pocket. When not facing pressure, Beck has completed 75% of his passes for 3189 passing yards with 17 touchdown passes. Georgia ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate — and they should be able to run the ball against an Alabama front that is not as stout either from past seasons as they rank 63rd in the nation in Line Yards Allowed. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Alabama has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in conference play. Since returning to the field after getting benched early in the season, Milroe has 26 touchdowns and only five turnovers. He has a big arm — and he ranks fourth in the nation by averaging 21.2 yards per pass attempt of at least 20 air yards. The Crimson Tide generated 451 total yards last week against the Tigers — including that miracle fourth-and-31-yard conversion to win the game. Alabama is going to be feisty in this game. The Crimson Tide has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win against an SEC rival. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They had scored at least 34 points in four straight games before only scoring 27 points last week in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has won 16 straight games played in Atlanta — so they are not going to back down to the reigning two-time National Champions. Despite their mutual reputations for defense, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings against each other Over the Total — and the last three SEC Championship Games have finished Over the Total. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (10-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset win at Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-28 victory at UTEP as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies held the Gamecocks to just 333 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to just 327.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in them scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game. New Mexico State’s defense ranks 39th in the nation using Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. Head coach Jerry Kill deploys a ball control offense — they pass the ball at the 103rd lowest rate in the FBS. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a conference opponent. They have played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. New Mexico State has held their last two opponents to 85 and 65 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Aggies already play tough defense against the pass — they rank 27th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico is a good running team that ranks sixth in the nation in Rushing Success Rate — so they should be able to sustain some drives. But they have not scored more than 28 points in eight of their last 11 games. On the other hand, they have held nine of their last 10 opponents to no more than 24 points. The Aggies play on the road at Williams Stadium having played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Liberty held the Miners to just 271 total yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. The Flames took a 28-7 lead at halftime in that game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their last contest. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points. Frankly, Liberty has been feasting on some of the worst defenses in the nation with nine of their 12 opponents ranking 85th or lower in Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free defensive ratings. When they played a Jacksonville State team that ranks 49th in the SP+ defensive rankings, their 31 points were the second-fewest of the season— and their 422 total yards in the game were -76.9 fewer than their season average. On the other side of the ball, Liberty has held their last three opponents to only 314.0 total YPG which has resulted in just 21.0 PPG. They rank 43rd in the SP+ defensive rankings — and their Havoc Rate is seventh best in the nation. The Flames host this championship game having played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Liberty won the first meeting between these teams by 16 points — although their 33 points were the third-fewest they scored all season. The Aggies have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home. Both of these teams play at a slower pace — New Mexico State ranks 309th in the nation by averaging 30.9 seconds per play and the Flames average 28.8 seconds per play which ranks 97th.  25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (303) and the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have scored at least 33 points in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests with the lone exception being their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the beginning of the month. They generated 431 yards against the Commanders despite having their offense on the field for only 23:06 minutes of that game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has at any time in his career after completing 22 of 32 passes against Washington for 331 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight contests. They have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are generating 443.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home this season which is resulting in a whopping 41.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-6) has lost five of their last six games after their 27-14 loss at San Francisco as a 13.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (5-5) won their second game in a row with their 10-6 victory against New England in Germany as a 2-point favorite back on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last six games — and now starting running back Rachaad White was a late addition to the injury report yesterday as questionable. Tampa Bay only managed 287 total yards last week against the 49ers. They are scoring only 19.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 304.7 Yards-Per-Game this season. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Bucs have struggled to get a running game going all season which has left the offense imbalanced as too reliant on the passing attack behind Baker Mayfield — so the potential absence of White is particularly concerning. Tampa Bay has not rushed for more than 81 yards in six straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in four or more games in a row including playing Unders in seven of their last eight games Under the Total under those circumstances. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in five straight contests. The Buccaneers stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road having lost two of their last three games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis only managed to generate 264 yards of offense two weeks ago against the Patriots defense. In their last three games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback. the Colts are averaging just 277.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG. Management released their veteran linebacker Shaq Leonard this week in a cost-cutting move made possible by the improved play of their younger players on their roster. Indy has allowed only 19 combined points in their last two games. The defense has produced 30 sacks this season from 12 different players — and they have 61 tackles for loss along with 65 hits on the quarterback which made Leonard’s contract expendable. Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 19 combined points were scored. They have played two Unders in a row — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (6-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 17-14 loss at South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisville (10-1) has won four games in a row after their 38-31 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Gamecocks to only 257 yards of offense last week — but they only managed 293 total yards in the three-point loss. Kentucky’s defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to just 307.0 total Yards-Per-Game — but they are only generating 272.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 19.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats have played 42 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival including four straight Under in those circumstances. Kentucky has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kentucky will find it difficult to move the ball against this Cardinals defense. The Wildcats rank 71st in the nation Rushing Success Rate behind a mediocre offensive line that ranks 99th in Line Yards. Louisville ranks 17th in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed fueled by a defensive line that ranks 6th in Line Yards. The Cardinals also rank 17th in Opponent Passing Success Allowed. Kentucky stays on the road where they are generating only 278.3 total YPG — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road. Louisville has the ACC Championship Game on deck next week against Florida State. The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have scored at least 31 points in three straight games, they have then played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. They did allow the Hurricanes to generate 7.47 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP. They return home where they have held their guests to just 277.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 12.5 PPG. The Cardinals have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5-10 point range. Louisville does play at a methodical pace on offense to help keep their defense rested — they rank 100th in the nation in seconds-per-play. But the Cardinals rank only 91st in the FBS in Offensive Line Yards — and now they face this Kentucky defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and Louisville has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points including eight of those last ten circumstances. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Buccaneers to just 287 total yards last week to control that game. San Francisco has held seven of their opponents to less than 20 points — and their last three opponents have scored only 16.0 Points-Per-Game against them. The addition of defensive end Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline gave them a second dynamic pass rusher to pair with Nick Bosa on the other side. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay last week — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted a perfect passer rating in the game by completing 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards last week — but the Niners have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. They generated 7.64 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging 7.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. The Niners have played 16 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Seattle only gained 291 total yards last week in their loss to the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. While he did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning field goal (Jason Myers missed the kick), it would not be terribly surprising if he was less than 100% in this game or got knocked out of the game against this now even better Niners pass rush. Seattle has only generated 310.3 total YPG in their last three games which has resulted in a 16.0 PPG scoring average — and they will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Niners score 27.9 PPG — but the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams scoring 27 or more PPG. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Seattle has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against NFC West rivals — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles outlasted the Cowboys despite only gaining 292 total yards against them. With tight end Dallas Goedert out for this game with a forearm injury and Jalen Hurts dealing with a nagging knee injury, the Philly offense is not as powerful as the one that lost by a 38-35 score to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last February 12th. The victory came on the heels of a 38-31 win at Washington the week prior — and the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against NFC East rivals by seven points or less. They were trailing at halftime by a 17-14 score to the Cowboys after going into halftime with a 17-10 deficit to the Commanders — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing 17 or more points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Kansas City only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. The Chiefs’ defense has become elite — they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 15.9 PPG and 288.2 total YPG. They lead the league by allowing only 176 passing YPG. They rank first in the NFL in both sacks and                               Quarterback Hits per Game (at 7). Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. But they have struggled to get their run game going lately as they have not rushed for more than 96 yards in five straight games. By averaging only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games, the offense is getting off schedule and Mahomes is facing too many third-and-long situations. When Mahomes had Tyreek Hill as a weapon, he could overcome those circumstances — but his young wide receiving corps now is unreliable and drop too many passes. It is not a coincidence that the Chiefs have played all five of those games Under the Total because they cannot sustain drives — and they lack the explosiveness in their pass game now. Mahomes intended air yards per pass attempt is at a career low this season. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.5 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.0 PPG. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight those games Under the Total in November. They have also played 15 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks. Head coach Andy Reid’s teams going back his tenure in Philadelphia have played 26 of their 33 games Under the Total after a bye week — and his Chiefs teams have played 12 of their 15 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a bye week — and Sirianni’s teams have played 5 of their 6 games Under the Total against opponents winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals' defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. But Cincinnati has played 29 of their last 39 games Under the Total on the road after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 37 of their last 52 road games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 20 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Additionally, the Bengals have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cincinnati offense will not be at 100% tonight with wide receiver Tee Higgins out with a hamstring injury. Missing Higgins hurts because the Bengals are not getting enough from their running game — they have not rushed for more than 66 yards in their last two games which means that the Ravens' defense can focus on taking away wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase without getting burned too badly. Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. In their four road games this season, they are only generating 283.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 45 of their last 63 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. They have covered the point spread just once in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then played 41 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury — but they still have cornerback Brandon Stephens to cover Chase.  They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and they are holding their opponents to just 273.6 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 15.7 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when favored. Baltimore has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by three points or less to their opponent. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). THE SITUATION: Orlando (5-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 112-97 upset victory at home against Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (5-5) has won two of their last three games after their 102-94 win against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic are playing outstanding defense after holding the Bucks to just 97 points. After ranking sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 57 games last season, they currently rank tied for second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.8. With two 6’10 big men in their starting rotation Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando has size that makes it difficult on their opponents. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Magic have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Orlando only ranks 21st in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with this roster probably needing more scoring. Injuries will not help their cause to night with point guard Markelle Fultz and forward Wendall Carter, Jr. out tonight — and shooting guard Gary Harris is questionable with a groin injury. He is the team’s best shooter who nailed 43% of his shots from behind the arc last year. The Magic are making only 45.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in only 108.2 Points-Per-Game away from home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 30 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total at home after a win at home. The Nets are beginning to play better defense as they have held their last three opponents to no higher than a 43.6% shooting percentage after holding the Wizards to 37.5% shooting. Not having center Nic Claxton early on held the play of their defense back. In the two games he has played, the Nets are allowing just over 100 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Cam Johnson is another good defender for them who missed seven games in a row before getting back on the court for their last two contests. Brooklyn has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. And while the Nets have played three straight Unders, they have then played 18 of their las 27 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Brooklyn will miss Cam Thomas tonight who is out with a left ankle injury. He is scoring 26.9 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench but has missed the last two games. Ben Simmons will also miss his fourth straight game with a hip injury — and while he does not score many points, he contributes with assists and rebounds on the offensive end of the court. In their last five games, they are making only 42.9% of their shots which is generating only 109.6 PPG — but they are holding their last five opponents to 43.4 shooting. The Nets have played 23 of their last 32 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when the game is at the Barclays Center. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 134-116 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Monday. Minnesota (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 114-109 upset loss against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their worst defensive game of the season after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage against them all season. New Orleans has become a very good defensive team under head coach Willie Green — they ranked sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. That loss to the defending NBA champions came on the heels of a 123-105 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two in a row by ten or more points. The Pelicans are dealing with several injuries to begin the season — and it gets even worse tonight. C.J. McCollum is dealing with a collapsed lung so he will not take the court. Herbert Jones is questionable with a sore right leg. And, of course, Zion Williamson is taking the game off for personal reasons — leaving Brandon Ingram as the primary scorer against the Timberwolves. New Orleans is a potent scoring team when teams have to address both Williamson and Ingram on the court together — especially with McCollum running the point. But this team lacks outside shooting to open up space for players to drive the lane — the torn meniscus injury of Trey Murphy III has impacted the efficiency of their offense. The Pelicans ranks tied for 22nd place with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of just 108.4 this season. They did make 50% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them this season — but that was with Williamson on the court. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 43 of their last 69 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Minnesota followed up their handing Denver their first loss of the season by doing the same thing to the Celtics on Monday in a game where they nailed 51.8% of their shots — their second-best shooting effort of the season. The Timberwolves have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. And while that game with the Nuggets finished Over the Total, they have then played 18 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Minnesota is playing outstanding defense — they lead the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 100.7. After holding the explosive Denver scoring attack to just 39.1% of their shots, the Timberwolves have limited five of their six opponents to no higher than 40.2% shooting. The great potential of this team on the defensive end of the court was demonstrated last year despite Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 29 games due to injury. The T-Wolves would have led the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency if the numbers they generated with  Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Towns on the court together were extended to the entire season. On their home court, Minnesota has held their opponents to 39.3% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 95.7 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE:  Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when hosting the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night. New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers might have played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Bears to just 295 total yards of offense. In theory, a defense that sports linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack along with safety Derwin James should be pretty good. They have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. But the offense only scored 17 points in two straight games before taking advantage of the suspect Bears defense last week. This Los Angeles offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. The Chargers have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football including their last four appearances. New York has played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Jets won their previous game by a 20-14 score against Philadelphia — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their push last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. New York has an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. But the offense remains limited with Zach Wilson under center. They have not scored more than 20 points in five of their seven games — and they have scored 13 or fewer points thee times. They are last in the NFL with only 102 first downs on the season. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total —  and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games —  and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 43-30 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-1) has won two games in a row with their 38-31 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas comes off perhaps their best game of the season where they gained 24 first downs and had their offense on the field for 35:28 minutes. Controlling the time of possession will be the formula for success against the Eagles to keep the Cowboys' defense fresh — this is the expressed reason why head coach Mike McCarthy parted ways with previous offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take over the play-calling himself. As it is, Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 24 or more first downs and held on to the football for at least 34 minutes. The Cowboys have generated 6.45 Yards-Per-Play and 6.10 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more in two straight games. Dallas has scored 30 or more points in all three of their games at home — but it has been a different story on the road. They scored two non-offensive touchdowns in their opening 40-0 win in New York against the Giants — but they have only scored 56 combined points in their next three games on the road.  But this stout Cowboys defense should have something to prove after giving up 40 points in San Francisco a few weeks ago. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now residing at FTN). They have not allowed more than 92 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have then played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total on the road after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Philadelphia has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Eagles have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win against a division rival by seven points or less. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while the Eagles gave up 472 total yards to the Commanders last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen in Game Five of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (102-76) took a 3-1 series lead with their 11-7 victory on the road last night. Arizona (94-84) looks to keep their season alive and force a Game Six back in Texas on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Even without Adolis Garcia who is out the rest of the World Series, the Rangers exploded for five runs in the second inning and another five runs in the third inning to quickly take control of Game Four. Texas has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game where at least 17 combined runs were scored. The Rangers have not committed an error in six straight games — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games without committing an error. Texas committed only 57 errors in the regular season which is the second-fewest in the league Eovaldi gets the ball tonight after giving up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander had one bad inning where he gave up three runs with the Diamondbacks getting a couple of seeing-eye ground ball base hits before Corbin Carroll broke things open with a triple. Look for Eovaldi to bounce back with a strong effort — he has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in five starts in these playoffs. The underlying sabermetrics are very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP from those five starts projecting an ERA of 2.72 and 2.63 moving forward. Eovaldi has plenty of big-game experience in the postseason going back to his time with the Boston Red Sox. He has a 10-1 career record in the postseason with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.10 ERA as a starter. In three starts on the road in these playoffs, he has a 2.84 ERA — and he posted a 3.56 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 13 road starts in the regular season. He faces this Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing nine or more runs — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing ten or more runs in their last game. They have also played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Diamondbacks have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Five of the runs allowed last night were unearned runs coming from a Christian Walker error in a rare fielding misstep for this team that led MLB with only 56 errors in the regular season. They counter with Gallen who gave up three earned runs in five innings of work in Game One of this series. The right-hander has struggled with command in the postseason — but four of his five starts have been on the road where he had a 4.43 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 18 starts on the road in the regular season. But in his 16 starts at home in the regular season, he enjoyed a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230. While he averaged 2.42 bases-on-balls per nine innings on the road in the regular season, his command was much better at home where only walked 1.59 batters per nine innings. Arizona has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with Gallen on the mound priced in the +/- 125 range. They have also played 24 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Rangers will miss Garcia’s scorching hot bat — he had a .323 batting average, a .382 on-base percentage, and a 1.108 OPS in these playoffs with eight home runs and 22 RBIs.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 10 or more runs. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have not scored more than 21 points all season — and they have failed to score more than 17 points in all but two of their games. One of the things I realized in my epic fail in taking the Las Vegas-Green Bay Over three weeks ago is that head coach Josh McDaniels does not have much confidence in his offense. Even in the first half, McDaniels was instructing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to burn the play clock close to zero on each play on offense. McDaniels probably does not have much faith in his defense either — so keeping that unit as fresh as possible is a priority. The Raiders' game plan will likely be to slow the game down, keep things close, and perhaps Garoppolo and Davante Adams can steal this game. Las Vegas did hold the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. They suffered a -3 net turnover margin last week — and Las Vegas has played 5 straight games Under the Total after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. As it is, the Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Las Vegas ran the ball only 14 times for 39 yards against the Bears — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for 50 or more yards. And while they got outgained by 134 net rushing yards last week, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Detroit has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did not score in the first half against the Ravens — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. Detroit allowed a whopping 503 yards last week with Baltimore generating 9.15 Yards-Per-Play — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, Detroit has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 45.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears only gained 323 yards against the Raiders — but they held them to just 335 yards while posting a +3 net turnover margin. Chicago has found a winning formula by running the football which is helping their keep their defense fresh. The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in three straight games — their last three opponents are generating only 281.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. Not coincidentally, they have run the ball at least 31 times in four straight contests which is helping them burn time off the clock. In their last three games, they are averaging 33:07 minutes per game on offense after posting a 34:06 time of possession mark against the Raiders last week. This will be the strategy against the Chargers’ Justin Herbert — especially with a rookie quarterback under center playing in his first road game. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. As it is, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset victory by 14 or more points. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. After passing for 939 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his first three games this season, he has only thrown for 650 yards in his last three games with a surprisingly low 57% completion percentage with four touchdown passes but four interceptions. Los Angeles is scoring generating 311.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in only 19.3 PPG. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have only played one Under this season — but the likely limitations on Bagent will impact the game script of this contest. Los Angeles has played a decisive 61 of their last 100 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after allowing 7.67 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Chargers have played 50 of their last 77 home games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. The Buccaneers' defense is solid — they are only allowing 17.3 PPG and they rank 12th in the league in Defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Buffalo only gained 339 total yards in their loss on the road to the Patriots last week. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been a significant drop-off as a play-caller and leader of the offense from previous OC Brian Daboll. This offense is too dependent on big plays — but the explosiveness with this offense has declined perhaps because Dorsey's reliance on 11 personnel (with three wide receivers) is too predictable. The Bills are scoring 19.7 PPG in their last three games. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo commits to running the football early in this game. I suspect this was a mandate from head coach Sean McDermott at halftime the previous week in their Sunday night game against the New York Giants when they rallied from a 6-0 halftime deficit to win the game by a 14-9 score. The ability to execute long drives was very encouraging for this team long-term — but going into half-time trailing by a 13-3 score to the Patriots last week led them to abandon their running game behind bruising running back Latavius Murray. Buffalo averages 31 rushing attempts per game at home as opposed to 23 rushes on the road — and their 138 rushing YPG at home helps them average 33:01 minutes per game on offense McDermott needs to address his side of the ball after Mac Jones passed for 272 yards with the struggling New England offense generating 364 total yards against them. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense should help this week. While the Patriots averaged 6.74 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Bills have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a favorite

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Three of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (93-75) finds themselves trailing by an 0-2 deficit in the ALCS after a 5-4 loss at home to the Rangers on Monday. Texas (97-72) has won seven games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by one run — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. After losing Game One by a 2-0 score, the Astros have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. Houston has not scored more than four runs in their last three games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. The Astros are only hitting .173 in their last three games — but they have then played 7 straight Overs after not hitting above .200 in their last three contests. Javier gets the start after pitching five scoreless innings at Minnesota in his last start last Tuesday in the ALDS. The right-hander’s velocity was up in that start — but he also walked five batters in that effort. Javier was solid at home this year where he had a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 regular season starts — but those numbers rose to a 5.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 18 starts on the road. Houston has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Javier on the mound as the money-line underdog. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. Texas is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .274 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and a .843 OPS. The Rangers have played 44 of their last 68 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. They have played 37 of their last 61 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have played 36 of their last 58 home games Over the Total against fellow AL West rivals. And while Texas has not allowed more than four runs in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They counter with Scherzer who is making his first start in 36 games after suffering a muscle strain in his right shoulder. Only three pitchers have taken the mound in the playoffs with a longer duration between starts in the history of MLB. Two of those circumstances took place this century — and those two starters have up four and three runs apiece while combining for a 5.63 ERA. Scherzer threw 68 pitches in his lone simulated game. If this was the regular season, the 39-year-old would probably throw two more simulated games to build up his strength and endurance. Even if he is effective tonight, he is not likely to pitch deep into the game. By the way, Scherzer’s strikeout rate is his lowest since 2013 while his walk rate is his highest since 2013. In his 12 career starts in a League Championship Series, 10 of those games finished Over the Total. His teams have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total this season when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. He faces an Astros team that ranks fourth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they led MLB in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total when playing with revenge for a loss by one run. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Now facing this horrendous Broncos defense that particularly struggles against the run, expect head coach Andy Reid to be quite content just running the ball — and that will burn time off the clock. Denver is allowing opposing rushers to generate 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. And while the Broncos are also giving up 263 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Chiefs have played 36 of their last 56 games Under the Total against opponents allowing 260 or more passing YPG. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Perhaps their scoring was lower in these home games because they did not need to push the pedal because of their strong play on defense. They held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. This year’s Chiefs’ defense is even better with the continued development of their second-year players. Defensive end George Karlaftis, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook form a great foundation on that side of the ball for years — and, of course, defensive tackle Chris Jones’ contract dispute is resolved and he is back in the mix after missing the Lions game. Kansas City is holding their opponents to 16.0 PPG and 301.4 YPG while not giving up more than 21 points all season. In their two home games, the Chiefs are allowing just 15.5 PPG and 285.5 YPG. Kansas City has played 15 of their last 24 home games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, they have played a decisive 42 of 64 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Denver only gained 308 total yards last week — but “Russell Wilson is not the problem!” Ever since the football left his hand in Super Bowl 49 and somehow ended in the arms of New England’s Malcolm Butler at the goal line to cost Seattle that championship, it’s never Wilson’s fault. “Let Russ Cook!” And when Russ was finally allowed to cook by being liberated from the conservative defensive coach Pete Carroll, the fireworks were inevitable with Wilson’s opportunity to construct an offensive scheme with the offensive coordinator that helped Aaron Rodgers win MVPs! But when personal parking spaces and offices in the building did not lead to huge numbers or wins, it was decided that it was all head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s fault. Bring in an adult like Sean Payton and everything will come together! Unironically, these folks were anxious for Payton to get Wilson back to the comfort level that he enjoyed when playing with the Seahawks — as if Payton implements the Brian Schottenheimer playbook, all will be great again (despite Schottenheimer being the arch-villain in the Let Russ Cook drama). Even now, five games into what is already a lost season, there remains a contingent who remain fully committed to the “It’s Not Russ’ Fault” narrative as they post tweets about how good his numbers are again. If the analytics folks want to privilege the empty calorie statistics from when the Broncos were trailing by 30 or so points against the Dolphins or laud Wilson’s 308 passing yards in Denver’s game against Washington where they blew a 21-3 lead (Not Russ’s Fault!) while he completed only 56.0% of his passes, well, I guess they can. Admittedly, Wilson’s interceptions are down. And he has been more mobile again (his defenders are quick to point out that he dropped weight in the offseason yet leave unanswered the mystery regarding how he gained 20 pounds last year — perhaps Wilson was force-fed Twinkies by that idiot Hackett in their 7 AM sessions last August when Russ was putting his personal stamp on the offense?). But Wilson has passed for more than 223 yards in just two of his five games — and the Broncos have not scored more than 21 points in three of their five games. Perhaps most importantly, Wilson has heroically returned to his 2021 Seattle form (when his not being allowed to cook was the crime against humanity), and he has done so against some of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas, Washington, Miami, and Chicago rank 24th, 26th, 25th, and 31st in the Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA rankings. The Jets rank 15th in Defensive DVOA (and were without cornerback D.J. Reed) — yet Wilson completed just 20 of 31 passes against them for 196 passing yards in that loss. Now Wilson faces the best defense he has faced this season according to the Defensive DVOA numbers that place the Chiefs 11th — on a short week to boot. As it is, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset double-digit loss as a home favorite. Denver has given up at least 28 points in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they allowed the Jets to rush for 234 yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos have played 11 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total from Week Five to Week Nine. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen in Game Two in their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Arizona (87-78) has won three games after taking the opening game of this best-of-five series with their 11-2 victory on Saturday. Los Angeles (100-63) has lost two of their last three games to fall behind 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 37 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a fellow NL West rival priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 34 of their last 51 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers scratched out only four base hits yesterday — but they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not getting more than four hits in their last game. They are only hitting .197 in their last three games — but they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not hitting higher than .200 in their last three contests. Miller gets the start tonight with his 11-4 record along with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts. The rookie sees his ERA rise to a 4.55 mark in his 10 starts at home as opposed to his 3.09 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Dodgers have also played 41 of their last 66 games Over the Total when priced as the money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Arizona has played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after an off day. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when on the road. The Diamondbacks have scored 22 combined runs in their last three games while plating at least five runs in each of those contests. They counter with Gallen who has a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 34 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 — but in his 18 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245. In his last seven starts in the regular season, the right-hander had a 4.93 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Arizona has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with Gallen on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175 range. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the playoff series. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with  Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-1) comes into this showdown off a 38-3 win against New England as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-0) maintained their unbeaten season with a 35-16 victory against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Patriots to just 253 yards in their blowout victory last week. Led by Micah Parsons, Dallas may have the best defense in the league. They are holding their opponents to just 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank as the top defense in the NFL using the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. They also lead the league in third-down defense and turnover differential. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three of their four games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers hold their opponents to just 4.7 YPP — and the Cowboys have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams not allowing more than 4.75 YPP. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. The 49ers’ defense is also outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 284.3 total YPG which results in their opponents scoring only 14.5 PPG. They rank seventh in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. The Niners do have an explosive offensive — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. They did generate 7.6 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after averaging 6.5 to more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played twice since 2022 with San Francisco following up a 23-17 win in the 2022 NFC Wildcard round of the playoffs with a 19-12 victory last year in the NFC Divisional Playoffs — and that game was after the Niners had Christian McCaffrey Brock Purdy in their starting lineup but only generated 312 total yards of offense against Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets’ offense has been a disaster in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers series in the opening series of their first game of the season. They are scoring only 14.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 225.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The team is still sticking with Zach Wilson despite him only completing 52.4% of his passes this season. But the problems of this offense go much further than the disappointing former second pick in the 2021 draft. New York’s offensive line is a mess as an already shaky unit has been hit hard with injuries with left tackle Duane Brown out along with rotational guard Wes Schweitzer. Wilson has been sacked eight times — and he is not getting any help in their rushing attack behind this line that is not opening rushing lanes. Dalvin Cook has generated only 2.3 Yards-Per-Carry and Breece Hall has a mere 36 total yards from scrimmage in his last two games. The Jets have scored only 10 points in two straight games. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss at home to an AFC East rival. The Jets' defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. In their two games at home at MetLife Stadium, they held Buffalo and the Patriots to just 16 and 15 points. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City comes off a dominating performance where had the ball for 36:13 minutes while generating 31 first downs against the Bears. The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 first downs with their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. They gained 456 total yards last week while outgaining Chicago by +253 net yards — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +200 or more yards. And while Kansas City has generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid is content with dialing up their rushing attack tonight against this Jets defense that has allowed 291 rushing yards in their last two games — and that will shorten the game by keeping the clock moving. The Chiefs' defense has become another strength for this team as they are holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG and 280.7 YPG. They rank ninth in the NFL in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA ratings — and they have not allowed more than 21 points in a game while giving up just 19 combined points in their last two contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-4) remained winless this season after their 35-24 loss at Texas State as a 17-point underdog last Saturday. Fresno State (4-0) is unbeaten this year after their 53-10 win against Kent State as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolf Pack have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. My question before the season started on my deep dive on this team was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. The numbers have not improved just yet — but they have played two of the most explosive offenses in the nation in USC and Kansas. After getting outgained by 178 yards two weeks ago in their loss 31-24 loss at home to the Jayhawks, they got outgained by 220 yards last week to the Bearcats. Nevada has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in two straight games. The Wolf Pack have allowed 31 or more points in all four of their games — but they have played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. On the other side of the ball, Nevada ranks 125th in the nation by scoring only 17 PPG. Fresno State has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs have also played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their four games, they have then played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The question I had for this team before the season was whether the Bulldogs could come close to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida in the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. Keene has taken the starting job — and he is completing 67.5% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. But he has also been sacked 11 times despite the experience on the offensive line. The Bulldogs generated 7.66 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Golden Flashes — but they have played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP. After allowing 66 combined points in their first two games, Fresno State had given up a mere 10 points in their last two contests. The Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They should continue to play well on that side of the ball with seven starters back from the tune that ranked 14th in the nation by allowing only 19.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 25* College Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. THE SITUATION: Texas (89-70) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Mariners. Seattle (86-73) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The stakes remain urgent for both teams — the Rangers are two games ahead of Houston for first place in the AL West while the Mariners are one game behind those Astros for the final American League wildcard spot. There are still scenarios where both teams could find themselves on the outside looking in after the regular season concludes this weekend. Texas managed only three base hits last night — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where they did not have more than four hits. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two games in a row. On the road, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total. Eovaldi gets the ball with his 12-4 record along with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.95 moving forward. He is struggling this month in his five starts with a 7.41 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .309. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs after a game that finished Under the Total — and the Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games after scoring no more than three runs in their last game. The Mariners have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while Seattle has not scored more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 31 of their last 48 games Over the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Woo who has a 4-5 record along with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 starts. In his four starts this month, the rookie right-hander has a 5.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He faces a Rangers offense that ranks 10th and 8th this season in weighted On-Base Created and weighted Runs Created this season — and they rank 8th and 6th in those metrics since August 1st and 5th and 4th in those categories this month. Despite scoring at least five runs in six of their last nine games, Texas is hitting only .218 in their last five games — but they have played 16 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total in September — and the Mariners have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Rams (1-1) enter this game coming off a 30-23 loss at home to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) remained winless this season after their 27-24 upset loss at home against Baltimore as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Bengals’ quarterback  Joe Burrow is a game-time decision as he continues to be slowed by a nagging calk injury he suffered in late July. Even if he plays, he is not close to 100% — and this leg injury is impacting his passing ability. He is 0-12 with his passes of at least 15 yards in the air downfield. He is completing only 56.9% of his passes. If he cannot go tonight, then backup Jake Browning will get the call. The former Washington Huskies quarterback is in his third year in the league and has thrown exactly one pass in a regular season game back in Week One. Cincinnati does not have much of a ground game to lean on either. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step at this point in his career. After averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry last season, he has rushed for 59 and 56 yards on 13 carries in both his games. The Bengals have only rushed for 75 and 66 yards in their first two games — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 99 yards in two straight games. They have been outrushed by 131 and 111 yards in both their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrushed by -100 or more yards in two straight contests. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home against an AFC North rival. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And in their last 10 games in September, Cincinnati has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles may be without the injured Cooper Kupp but Matthew Stafford is healthy and operating a ball-control offense behind former Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams. The Rams’ offense has been on the field for 36:17 minutes per game — and that is helping to protect their young defense that is allowing only 272.5 Yards-Per-Game. That defense is certainly helped by a healthy Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Additionally, the Rams have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Los Angeles did surrender 6.89 Yards-Per-Play to the 49ers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.5 or more YPP. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 35-33 upset loss to Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (2-0) has won their first two games after their 24-17 win at New England as a 1-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Denver has not covered the point spread yet under new head coach Sean Payton — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They did average 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Quarterback Russell Wilson is getting sacked once in every eight dropbacks. With the challenge of playing in the South Beach heat against this potent Dolphins offense, look for Payton to try to shorten this game with his rushing attack behind running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. The defense will be without Justin Simmons and Frank Harris this afternoon, but this remains a good group that is allowing only 324.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Denver ranked seventh in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 320.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total. The Broncos have also played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a road dog. Additionally, Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Miami has played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Toal at home after beating an AFC East rival on the road in their last game. And while they outgained the Patriots by +101 net yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 17 games at Hard Rock Stadium. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by seven or fewer points. Additionally, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle who is out with a concussion. Without his deep threat, the dynamo of the offense changes — and Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can either double-team Tyreek Hill or rely on shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain II to cover him.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Dolphins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. The Dolphins have also played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as an underdog. Miami generated 536 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. And while they overcame a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week. What is so frustrating about Staley is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. But New England has their own injury issues on the offensive line with starters Trent Brown and Cole Strange along with rookie Sidy Cow all questionable and free agent tackle Riley Reiff on the four-week injured list. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and New England has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. This looks like a heavy pass script coming from head coach Kevin O’Connell who calls the plays. Don’t be surprised if Kirk Cousins throws 50 passes tonight against a depleted Eagles secondary that is missing cornerback James Bradbury to the concussion protocol and safety Reed Blankenship to a rib injury. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Vikings have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go on the road on the short week where they have played 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 straight Overs as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin while defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable. The Eagles gave up 382 total yards to the Patriots last week. But Philadelphia should play better on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Minnesota defense was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5-49-point range — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last season with the Eagles winning at home by a  24-7 score on September 19th. That final score was misleading as the Vikings got inside the Philadelphia 27-yard line four times — and then twice inside their 10-yard line — but failed to score a single point on those four drives. If Minnesota scores more from those drives, the game script changes with Philly likely scoring in the 30s. Expect a higher-scoring game in this rematch. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (69-77) has snapped a three-game losing streak after their 3-1 victory on the road against the Giants in the second game of this series. San Francisco (74-71) was on a four-game winning streak before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They managed only four base hits in the victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had less than five base hits. Cleveland has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing four straight games where they did not score more than four runs. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Allen gets the ball with his 7-7 record along with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander remains steady in the second half of the season with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in his last seven starts since the beginning of August. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.36 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in 11 starts at home. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Allen their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Allen has thrived in day games as well with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as compared to his 4.18 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in  15 starts at night. He faces a Giants team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .240 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .682. San Francisco ranks 27th and 23rd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 29th and 28th in the league in those categories since July 1st. The Giants have played 23 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They are only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 home games Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They counter with Harrison who has a 1-1 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his first four starts at the MLB level. The rookie has not allowed more than three earned runs in three of his four starts — he gave up six runs in San Diego in the outlier. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.66 and 3.93 moving forward. In his two starts at home, Harrison has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190.  He faces a slumping Guardians team that is scoring 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616 during that span. Against left-handed pitching, Cleveland is scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .242 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .677. The Guardians rank 26th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they remain 25th and 26th in MLB since August 1st in those categories.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) finished 7-10 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo looks poised to lean on their running game more this season with the acquisition of running backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. The Bills have lacked the ability to sustain a four-minute offense when they need to protect a lead in the fourth quarter. With Harris coming over from New England and Murray being signed from Denver, Buffalo now has two bigger running backs to use in a power running game. Look for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to attempt to establish a power-rushing attack behind their solid offensive line against the stout Jets defense. The Bills' defense should be outstanding once again this season. They ranked second in the NFL by allowing only 17.9 Points-Per-Game last season. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Additionally, the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. Aaron Rodgers is now under center — but I am not expecting him to light up the scoreboard after not getting much playing time in the preseason. The Jets are shaky with their offensive line — especially at right tackle with Mekhi Becton. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the first half of the season.   The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in September. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more than important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys will lean on their outstanding defense ranked fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when favored. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Giants’ running back has scored only three touchdowns in the eight games that he has played against the Cowboys. While most of the attention to New York in the second seasons under head coach Brian Daboll goes to Daniel Jones and the potential (or limitations) of their offense), I expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the injured Cowboys offensive line and Prescott. New York has played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. The Giants have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) begins the post-Aaron Rodgers era coming off an 8-9 season. Chicago (0-0) looks to improve on their 3-14 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jordan Love era begins for the Packers as he makes his second career start this afternoon. He is probably not going to continue the outstanding legacy that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have established with this organization in the last three decades — Hall of Fame quarterbacks do not grow on trees. But while I think he can develop into a solid NFL quarterback, he probably still needs some time to develop after only taking 157 snaps in his three seasons in the NFL. Even if head coach Matt LaFleur wanted to “Let Love Cook” in this opening game, injuries at wide receiver would have probably changed that plan. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson is out with a hamstring injury and second-year wide receiver Romeo Doubs is questionable with a hamstring. The remaining depth chart in the wide receiver room are rookies. Expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the running game this afternoon. I have a suspicion that an aggressive rushing attack is what LaFleur would have preferred anyways even with Rodgers as his quarterback the last few seasons. The Bears ranked second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Chicago certainly wants to pass the ball more after ranking last in the league by averaging only 130.5 passing YPG last season. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore when they traded down in the draft with Carolina gives third-year quarterback Justin Fields the number one wide receiver he has lacked. But I do not expect second-year head coach Matt Eberflus to abandon his defensive roots in game-planning for this contest. The Bears defense dealt with several injuries in the preseason so cohesion is a concern. Look for Chicago to focus on their ground game with Khalil Herbert and free agent signee D’Onta Foreman. Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Toal in the opening two weeks of the season.  Don’t be surprised if this game is over by 7 PM ET/4 PM PT despite the late start — both teams are going to run the ball and burn clock. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-70) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-1 victory on the road against the Cardinals. St. Louis (56-76) has lost four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have scored only four combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than two runs in any of those four games. The Cards have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 40 of their last 55 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in four straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing three straight games where they did not score more than two runs. And in their last 7 games at home, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. Thompson gets the start tonight with his 3-5 record along with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 35 innings. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.43 and 3.08 moving forward. The left-hander has been getting excellent results since adding a slider/cutter pitch to his arsenal which is generating swinging strikes. Since he debuted the pitch on July 19th, Thompson has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP while striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings. He has been much better at home this season where he has a 1.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 19 1/3 innings as opposed to his 6.89 ERA, a 1.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 15 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a slumping Padres offense that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and a .680 OPS during that span. San Diego has 36 of their last 60 games Under the Total after winning their last game — including four of their last six contests. They have also played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Padres have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 36-46% of their games. They counter with Lugo who has a 5-6 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts consisting of six-inning efforts apiece. Furthermore, Lugo has held six of his last seven opponents to less than three earned runs — he sports a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP during those seven starts with 43 strikeouts in those 40 1/3 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in ten starts at home. The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Lugo on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .169 batting average, a .246 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (84-44) has won four straight games after their 7-3 victory on the road against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-63) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 31 of their last 49 games on the road Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three or more games in a row — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Additionally, in their last 27 games on the road in August, Atlanta has played 19 of these games Over the Total. Shuster gets his tenth start of the season carrying a 4-2 record along with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.18 and 6.19 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in five starts at home, those numbers rise to a 6.27 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants lineup that has a .267 batting average in their last seven games with a .322 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .731 during that span which compares favorably versus their .239 batting average, a .306 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .694 for the season. San Francisco ranks eighth and sixth this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Braves scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total against National League teams scoring 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Beck who has a 3-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 67 1/3 innings. This will be his first start of the season — and the metrics call for regression even before the typical drop in effectiveness when a pitcher attempts to stretch out for more than one inning. His SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 4.03 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in 35 1/3 innings as opposed to his 2.25 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in 32 innings.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves score 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .273 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .502. Atlanta ranks first and second in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created this season on the road against right-handed pitching — and they rank second in both those categories since June. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with  Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two preseason games after their 34-17 loss at home to Las Vegas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Denver (0-2) is winless this preseason after their 21-20 upset loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER TOTAL: Head coach Sean McVay is not likely to play his starters tonight -- especially after these teams just finished two days of rigorous joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday. That means that the Rams' offense will be quarterbacked mostly by rookie Stetson Bennett and journeyman Brett Rypien. Their loss to the Raiders saw a combined 51 points scored — but 14 of those points came from the teams exchanging pick-sixes. Los Angeles is scoring only 17 Points-Per-Game in the preseason while generating only 243.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The Rams’ offensive line is a mess — and that problem permeates all the way down their depth chart on the line. LA’s defense has also been bad by allowing 379.1 YPG — but they should benefit from seeing the Broncos’ playbook twice this week. McVay’s Rams have played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a loss in the preseason. They have also played 3 Unders in the three games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog under McVay. Denver head coach Sean Payton has indicated his starters will not play for more than a series (if that) tonight. With wide receiver Jerry Jeudy getting injured in the joint practices, I do not expect many of their starters on offense to take the field. The Broncos are scoring only 18.5 PPG in the preseason while averaging 317.0 YPG. Denver has not covered the point spread in their first two preseason games — and Payton’s teams have played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight preseason games. This will be the Broncos' lone preseason game at home at Empower Stadium at Mile High — and Payton’s teams have played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games on the road. Furthermore, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Denver allowed the 49ers to average 6.8 Yards-Per-Play last week, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after allowing their previous preseason opponent to average 6.5 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake for this play is that these teams just completed two days of joint practice this week. The Rams' defense had glowing reports afterward — especially on Wednesday. The Broncos defense played significantly better on Thursday. McVay and Payton used those controlled scrimmages as their “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. Expect backups tonight with vanilla schemes in a game filled with players fighting for the final roster spots. In situations like this, the edge goes to the defense since only one mistake by a player on offense can ruin the execution of the play. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). THE SITUATION: Massachusetts (0-0) returns 15 starters from its team that finished 1-11 last season. New Mexico State (0-0) has 13 starters returning from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 24-19 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies return nine starters on offense from a group that ranked 108th in the FBS by generating 330.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and head coach Jerry Kill’s team is not going to significantly increase those numbers even if they improve their efficiency since he prefers a run-first ball control attack. New Mexico State scored only 25.5. Points-Per-Game last season in his first year as head coach. The Aggies did win seven of their last nine games — including their victory against the Falcons in the bowl game — with the surge coinciding with Kill turning to Diego Pavia at quarterback. But while they scored at least 45 points in four of those wins, those were against some weak opponents. New Mexico State scored 45 points against a Hawai’i team undergoing a massive rebuild who were one of the worst defensive teams in the FBS. They put up 49 points against a shellshocked Liberty reeling internally from the rumors that their head coach Hugh Freeze was leaving the program for Auburn. They then scored 51 points against FCS-opponent Lamar and then 65 points against Valparaiso who was a late-season replacement for San Jose State who canceled their game after the tragic death of one of their teammates. The Aggies scored less than 25 points in their three other victories — including a 23-13 victory against this UMass team. They then failed to score more than 14 points in their six losses. Pavia is a gamer — but the former junior college transfer completed only 53.2% of his passes last season. New Mexico State’s ball control offense did help their defense hold their opponents to just 336.6 total YPG, ranking 29th in the nation. Five starters return to that unit that was bolstered by the addition of Power-Five transfers in nose tackle Dion Wilson, Jr. from Arizona and linebacker Jamari Buddin from Minnesota. The Aggies return two starters — and add cornerback Keynote Wilson as a transfer from Wyoming  — to a secondary that ranked 16th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 186.8 passing YPG. Kill’s teams have played 31 of their last 52 games Under the Total when playing at home in his coaching career — and his teams have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. UMass will be debuting former Clemson blue-chipper Taison Phommochanh at quarterback — but he was not able to take the starting job at Georgia Tech either so this ability to transform the Minutemen offense that ranked 130th in the nation by averaging only 12.5 PPG remains in doubt. UMass scored less than 14 points in nine of their 12 games last season. Second-year head coach Don Brown will have no plans to open up the offense anyway — his formula for success is also ball control to help his defense. The former defensive coordinator at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh had his team rank 16th in the nation time of possession last season as the head coach for this program. The Minutemen return eight starters — and 13 of their 18 who played at least 200 snaps — from a defense that ranked 54th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.6 total YPG. Brown inherited a defense that ranked 125th in the nation by allowing 485.0 total YPG. After their opponents generated +124 YPG above their season average two years ago, Brown was able to get that mark down to just +14 YPG above their offensive YPG average. Brown and defensive coordinator Keith Dudzinski’s unit ranked 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.9% conversion rate on third down. UMass also ranked ninth in the FBS by allowing only 175.2 passing YPG — a testament to Brown’s touch as he handles the secondary coaching to infuse his man-to-man cover principles. Solid man-to-man coverage allowed the Minutemen to rank fifth in the nation in blitz rate per dropback. UMass played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s game on the road by a 23-13 score at the Minutemen’s McGuirk Alumni Stadium — they gained only 334 total yards but held UMass to just 259 total yards. Both of these coaching staffs will have dedicated plenty of coaching hours to scheme against these offensive attacks that lack originality. Kill’s teams have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season — and New Mexico State played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Minutemen played 5 of their 7 games in the first half of the season Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) leveled their preseason record at 1-1 with a 21-17 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Tennessee (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 in the preseason with a 24-16 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams were set to have two days of joint practices this week — but those plans were canceled after the scary incident the Patriots experienced with their rookie Isaiah Bolden who got injured in that game against the Packers which led to that contest being ended early. While head coach Bill Belichick might have been tempted to use this final preseason game to get more work in for quarterback Mac Jones and the first-string offense — especially with those joint scrimmages postponed — the injuries on their offensive line seem to have persuaded Belichick to instead give Jones and the critical first stringers on offense the night off. Left guard Cole Strange and right guard Michael Onwenu are slowed by injuries and will not play tonight as they prepare for the regular season in two weeks. The play of the Patriots offensive line has been shaky without those two starters — and they have serious issues at right tackle. Jones was sacked twice for 20 yards in his limited action last week. Even if Jones takes the field tonight, it will not be for long since Belichick does not want to risk serious injury to his starting quarterback. Bailey Zappe will likely get most of the snaps under center in the first half — he struggled last week by completing only 10 of 22 passes for only 117 yards. Trace McSorley will probably play most of the second half after the Patriots signed him as a free agent in the offseason. He has played in only nine games with one start in his three-year career — and he has completed only 51.6% of his passes in his career with one touchdown pass and five interceptions. Undrafted rookie free agent Malik Cunningham from Louisville may get some snaps in the fourth quarter although he may get moved to wide receiver for the Patriots in the long run. Belichick may have used the joint practices to test their top third down and red zone plays against a friendly rival in his former player Mike Vrbabel — but that is not likely to happen now when the entire league gets the tape. The Patriots have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset win in the preseason. New England has also played 20 of their last 32 road preseason games as an underdog under Belichick — and they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total in the preseason when getting up to three points as an underdog. The Patriots have only scored 15.0 Points-Per-Game in their two preseason games while generating 204.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but their defense has been solid by holding their opponents to just 302.5 total YPG which has resulted in their opponents scoring 18.5 PPG. The Titans defense has been similarly effective by holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG and 299.5 total YPG. But Tennessee has scored only 20.5 PPG in their two preseason games. Ryan Tannehill may get a series or two tonight according to head coach Vrabel — but considering that he has not played in the preseason since 2019, I do not expect him to play for more than a series or two. The Titans’ backup QB situation is unsettled. Rookie Will Levis will probably play after missing last week’s game with a lower-body injury. The former Kentucky star was just OK in his professional debut two weeks ago against Chicago when he completed 9 of 14 passes for 85 yards — but with an interception. He probably could have used the reps last week against the hostile competition that was the Vikings. Rookies tend to struggle against Belichick even in the preseason when his defenses are not as sophisticated as what they will be in the regular season. Malik Willis played the entire game against Minnesota — and he will probably get time tonight since he is a potential trade target. The Titans’ third-round pick from last season has not met expectations — remember that he was bypassed as the team’s starter late in the season last year for Josh Dobbs who they picked up off the streets the previous in a critical Thursday night game against Jacksonville for their playoff aspirations. Willis has completed 26 of his 42 preseason passes this month for only 274 yards with two interceptions. Tennessee has played 4 of their 6 home preseason games as a favorite Under the Total in the Vrabal era.

FINAL TAKE: The offensive schemes will likely be vanilla between these AFC rivals who could play each other in an early playoff game in January. The Titans have played 3 of their 4 preseason games Under the Total against AFC teams under Vrabel — and New England has played 8 of their 12 preseason games Under the Total in the Belichick era. 25* AFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Seattle (67-55) has won four straight games after their 2-0 win on the road against the Astros yesterday. Houston (70-53) had won two games in a row before their loss last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have won all four of these games by two runs or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning three games in a row by two runs or less. Granted, Julio Rodriguez is tearing it up right now — he is 13 of 17 in his last three games — so taking an Under against a left-handed starting pitcher gave me pause. But the Mariners have stranded at least 10 baserunners in four straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row where they left 10 or more runners on base. Gilbert gets the ball tonight with his 10-5 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.65 moving forward. He has been outstanding since the beginning of July boasting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last eight starts with 50 strikeouts in those 49 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 11 starts at home. Houston has played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after getting shutout by an AL West rival. Furthermore, the Astros have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where two or fewer combined runs were scored. They counter with Valdez who has a 9-8 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts. The sabermetrics indicate he is meeting expectations given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.29 moving forward. He returns home to Minute Maid Park for the first time since he pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland on August 1st in an effort where he only walked one batter. He has thrived at home where he owns a 2.44 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.43 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in ten starts on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros struggle against home against right-handed pitching -- they rank 25th and 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted handed pitching. And since July 1st, Houston ranks 27th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted-handed pitching. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358) in the consolation third-place match in the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Australia (W3-D2-L1) comes off a 3-1 loss to England in their Semifinal match in this tournament on Wednesday morning. Sweden (W4-D1-L1)      lost to Spain in a 2-1 heartbreaker in their Semifinals match Tuesday morning. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Brisbane Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia will be highly motivated to win this match in front of their rabid home fans who have wildly supported their team in this tournament. While reaching the finals would have capped a magical run, winning the third-place bronze trophy will be very rewarding to manager Tony Gustavsson’s team while representing their best finish in a World Cup, men or women. Gustavsson also has his star player back in the mix with Sam Kerr back on the pitch. After missing most of this World Cup, she returned in the match against England and scored their lone goal in the 63rd minute. Kerr’s supporters can make a compelling case that she is the best women’s player in the world. She jumpstarts a Matildas’ attack that scores 10 goals in their six matches. With Kerr back and the excitement of the home crowd, I expect Australia to play aggressively on the front foot. They scored four times with a potent 2.6 expected goals (xG) mark against a quality Canadian team in the Group Stage that won the Gold Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Matildas generated at least 1.1 xG in all six of their matches in this event. But Australia can leaky with their defense. After Kerr evened the score at 1-1, they then conceded two goals in the next 18 minutes to let that game slip out of their hands. While they had four clean sheets overall, the three goals they let Nigeria score against them illustrates their vulnerability in the back end. Sweden is a team that is comfortable in adapting their tactics to their opponent. They outlasted the United States in the shootout in the Round of 16 after 120 minutes of scoreless play. But after Spain broke the scoreless deadlock in the 81st minute in the Semifinals, they pressed the accelerator to even the score seven minutes later — all before conceding the game-winning goal to La Roja two minutes later. Sweden has generated at least 2.0 xG in four of their six matches including against a very good Japanese side. But they allowed 1.2 xG in four of their six matches — and the US, Japan, and Spain combined to create 4.6 expected goals against them in their three Knockout Stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: Consolation matches tend to be higher-scoring affairs since there is not as much pressure regarding winning or losing the match. Parking the bus in the attempt to grind out a third-place trophy is no fun for anyone. In the eight third-place matches in the Women’s World Cup, five of these contests saw three or more combined goals. Sweden will be playing in their fourth third-place match at a Women’s World Cup — but they have won all three of those matches while scoring a combined nine goals in those contests. Manager Peter Gerhardsson intends to keep his same starting XI — so it will be their A-team facing an energized Australian side. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 AM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup with a 0-0 draw with Ireland on Monday. England (W3-D0-L0) completed a sweep of their three Group Stage opponents with their 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Brisbane Stadium in Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England enters this match with an overrated offensive attack that looks more impressive after scoring six times against China. They scored in the fourth minute of that match which changed the complexion of the contest since China needed a victory to advance to the Knockout Stage — so they had to play more aggressively which contributed to the blowout. The Lionesses only registered 2.6 expected goals in that match so they significantly overperformed the underlying metrics. England only scored one goal apiece in their first two matches at this event — and their 6.3 expected goals are just the ninth most in the tournament. The Lionesses are dealing with several injuries with striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby out with injuries before the World Cup started. Keira Walsh is dealing with a knee that leaves her in doubt to play this morning. They are far from full strength in their attack. Frankly, this England side is probably a bit overvalued right now on the heels of winning the Euro Championship last summer. Not only did the Lionesses have the benefit of home-field advantage in hosting the event but they were fortunate in several of their matches after losing the expected goals battle. But England has been dominant on defense despite playing without their best defender, Leah Williamson. The penalty kick goal China scored is the only goal they have allowed. Their 0.9 expected goals China managed is the most an opponent has generated in this event — and their total expected goals allowed is just 1.9 xGA. They face a dangerous opponent in Nigeria who is a disciplined underdog that will be content in giving up possession while limiting high-quality scoring opportunities. Despite allowing the fourth most touches of the 16 teams in the Knockout Stage, they rank fifth in the tournament by limiting their opponents on target to just 22.9% of their shot attempts. In their scoreless draw with Ireland, they held the Irish women to just 0.5 expected goals while managing only 1.1 expected goals themselves. The Super Falcons have scored only three goals in this tournament while registering just 3.0 expected goals. But they have allowed only two goals with an xGA of just 4.1.

FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has played two matches to scoreless draws with their 0-0 draw with Canada perhaps being most telling since the Canadians are one of the best teams in the world who won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. Nigeria survived perhaps the toughest group in this tournament that included host nation Australia as well as a disappointed Canada squad that did not advance along with a feisty Ireland side. I considered the Super Falcons plus the +1.5 goals but concluded the Under was the preferred option given the strength of England’s defense (I think a 2-0 England win is more likely than a 2-1 win for the Lionesses). 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-54) has won lost four straight games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (57-54) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Arizona has scored no more than four runs in eight straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing five straight games where they did not allow more than four runs. They have played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total in Interleague play. Nelson gets the start with his 6-5 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home at Chase Field where he has been saddled with a 8.01 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .356 in ten starts — but he has thrived away from that hitter’s ballpark as he sports a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 12 starts on the road. In his last five starts on the road, he owns a 1.87 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP while holding three of his opponents to just one run. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Nelson pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Twins lineup that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 batting average, a .283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .660 during that span. Minnesota has scored three runs or less in four of their last five games — but they have held four straight opponents to three runs or less with three of those opponents only scoring two runs. The Twins have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Maeda who has a 2-6 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Those frontline numbers are skewed by one disastrous start at home against the New York Yankees when he gave up ten runs in three innings of work. He went on the injured list after that effort with a tricep injury that kept him on the shelf for two months. Since his return to the mound in June, he has been outstanding with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts. His velocity is back up which has helped him strike out 51 batters in 37 2/3 innings — and he has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts. Maeda has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts — but take away that disaster against the Yankees, he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in three home starts this season. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with Maeda on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: While Arizona ranks ninth and tenth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season — but they have dropped to 17th and 18th in those categories since the beginning of July. The Diamondbacks are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 batting average, a .243 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .523 during that span. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Comber. THE SITUATION: San Diego (52-54) has won three straight games after their 5-3 loss at home against Texas yesterday. Colorado (41-64) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 2-0 win against Oakland on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have held their last five opponents to three runs or less — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than three runs in four or more games in a row. San Diego has played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played five straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 11 or higher. Lugo gets the start looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been quite good since returning from a stint on the injured list last month. In his last seven starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. He has also been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.38 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in eight starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in seven starts at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound following a victory in their last game. He faces a Rockies team that leaves way too many runners on base. While Colorado ranks sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers, they only rank 29th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Rockies have fallen to ranking just 21st in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers — and they still rank 29th in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. This team has also traded away two of their best bats with C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk being shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Colorado has played 25 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after shutting out their previous opponent. The Rockies have also played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored. And in their last 9 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Gomber who has an 8-8 record with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 21 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective lately as he has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less with three of those four starts being at home at Coors Field. Gomber has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in his last six starts — and he has issued only two walks in his last seven starts! In his last four starts at home at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Gomber on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He will be supported by a defense that has not committed an error in two straight games — and the Rockies have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after not committing an error in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank 19th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (52-52) was on a three-game winning streak before their 3-0 loss on the road against the White Sox in the second game of this series. Chicago (42-63) snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games. They have played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow AL Central rivals. And in their last 52 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, they have played 32 of those games Under the Total. Allen gets the start looking to build on his 4-3 record along with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts at home. He faces a White Sox line that ranks 29th and 28th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 30th in those categories since June 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .233 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .655 during that span. The White Sox have scored three runs or less in three of their last four games. They have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a game where three or more combined runs were scored. The White Sox have also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Clevinger who has been activated off the injured list for this start. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has been better at home where he owns a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in five starts as compared to his 4.78 ERA and a .245 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland ranks 22nd and 21st in MLB this season since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (56-48) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-0 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-43) has lost three of their last four games after an 8-1 loss to Toronto on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played five straight Unders while not giving up more than three runs in those contests. But they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. Williamson gets the ball with a 2-2 record along with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.07 and 5.10 moving forward. He has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.95 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 win seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers lineup that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 batting average, a .375 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .877 during that span. Los Angeles ranks sixth and second this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. They have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by six or more runs. The Dodgers have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They counter with Miller who has a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts as opposed to his 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank eighth in MLB since the beginning of May in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. THE SITUATION: Houston (55-44) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (28-73) has won three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game — including 12 of these last 18 circumstances this season. Houston completes their nine-game road trip today — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their previous seven games on the road. The Astros have also played 38 of their last 58 road games Under the Total when priced as a -125 or higher favorite. Brown gets the start with his 6-7 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are promising with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.42 and 3.05 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.79 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in ten starts as compared to his 4.89 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276  in eight starts at home. Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total with Brown pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 1.89 ERA in their last five games — and the Astros have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Brown and the Houston pen face an A’s team that is only scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average. Oakland ranks 30th and 29th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in a victory against a divisional rival in their last game. The A’s have also played 14 of their last 23 games at home as an underdog priced from +150 to +200. They complete a ten-game home stand this afternoon — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing six or more games in a row at home. They counter with Medina who has a 3-7 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 13 games including nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be giving about a run less per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.47 moving forward. Most of the damage against him has taken place on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.16 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 32 2/3 innings — he has a more respectable 4.41 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 32 2/3 innings at home. Furthermore, the right-hander has made an adjustment recently that is generating better results. He has introduced a sinker into his arsenal which he is throwing in place of his four-seamer — and he is using his slider more to offset this new pitch. Medina has a 3.12 ERA in his last five appearances with 28 strikeouts in those 26 innings. He faces an Astros lineup missing the injured Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve — they are scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Games against right-handed starting pitchers with a .238 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB AL West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126) in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Panama (W3-D2-L0) reached the championship match of the Gold Cup on Wednesday by beating the United States in penalty kicks (5-4) after their semifinals match remained deadlocked at 1-1 after extra time. Mexico (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of this tournament with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Wednesday. This match is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico has found their mojo again under manager Jaime Lozano who took over for  Diego Cocca after El Tri got trounced by the United States by a 3-0 score in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League last month. The improved play has started with their defense as they have allowed only two goals in their five matches — and one of those conceded goals was against Qatar when they were playing with a rotated starting XI in the final group stage match with the luxury of having first place in their group all but wrapped up. Mexico has held their opponents to just 30 shots in this tournament — an average of just six per match. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) has been only 1.5 goals. Their veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa has registered three clean sheets. El Tri did score an impressive three goals against a strong Jamaican side but the game script of that match quickly tilted in their favor when they scored in the first two minutes. The Reggae Boyz were forced out of their preferred defensive posture playing catchup for the entire match. Panama has been deceptively strong on the defensive side of the pitch with four of the five goals they have allowed taking place after the 90th-minute mark. The lone goal the United States scored against them was at the 105th-minute mark after the match remained scoreless after the 90 minutes of regulation time.

FINAL TAKE: Panama has been blanked in four of their last five matches against Mexico — they have scored just once in those previous five encounters. Los Canaleros will engage in a defensive posture hoping to force extra time as they did against the Americans. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (42-38) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 3-1 victory in the second game of their series with the Orioles. Baltimore (48-30) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Cincinnati has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Weaver who has a 1-2 record with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he has a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323 in six starts as opposed to his 1.47 WHIP and a .295 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. He has been crushed this month with a 10.80 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .368 in his four starts in June. He faces an Orioles team that ranks sixth and fifth respectively in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank third in both those metrics since the beginning of June. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Orioles have played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gibson who has an 8-5 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in nine starts on the road. And in his four starts this month, Gibson has a 5.75 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank sixth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-33) has lost three of their last four games — and six of their last eight — after a 3-1 loss on the road against the Yankees on Saturday. New York (38-28) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees lineup is slumping without Aaron Judge who is on the injured list with a toe injury. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average, a .250 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661 during that span. They have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They beat the Red Sox by a 3-2 score in Game One on Friday — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored more than three runs. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning their previous game. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Schmidt gets the ball looking to build on his 2-6 record with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.93 moving forward. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in five starts. Schmidt has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eight starts at night — and New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Schmidt as their starting pitcher in a night game. He faces a Mets team that has played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 Batting Average, a .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have not scored more than three runs in four straight games and in seven of their last eight contests. The Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Bello who has a 3-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.77 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in three starts as compared to his 4.23 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. Boston has played 5 straight Unders on the road with Bello pitching with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Red Sox have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Boston ranks 23rd in MLB in both weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since May 1st. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (49) and the Florida Panthers (50) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss on the road against the Panthers on Thursday. Florida (55-39-7) ended their two-game losing streak to win their first game in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 12 combined goals in the first two games in this series, head coach Paul Maurice changed the Panthers’ approach in this series by being willing to grind out a lower-scoring game. Florida only peppered the Golden Knights’ goaltender Adin Hill with 23 shots. But the Panthers are losing in the special teams battle in this series. Vegas has scored six goals on the power play in this series while converting 35.3% of the time against Florida when they have the man advantage. Both their goals on Thursday were on the power play. The formula for success for the Panthers has become clear: stop trying to out-muscle the Golden Knights, settle for lower-scoring games, and make it a battle between Sergei Bobrovsky and Hill. Florida was able to bully Toronto and Carolina — but Vegas is well-versed in playing heavy hockey so these tactics are old hat to them. Bobrovsky had his best game in this series as he stopped 25 of the 27 shots he faced. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner had +1.71 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation in Game Three. While it is too much to ask for Bobrovsky to reproduce the .954 save percentage he enjoyed against the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes, the Florida approach has shifted to play with less aggression with more attention to defense to help him out. Vegas only managed 1.62 expected goals when playing at five-on-five even strength. Now the message from Maurice is to take fewer penalties. The Panthers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, Florida has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when hosting the Golden Knights. Vegas entered this series seeming to struggle with their Power Play Kill Unit in the postseason — but much of that is due to having to deal with the historically elite power play of the Edmonton Oilers this season. Connor McDavid and company scored 14 power-play goals in 23 chances in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Golden Knights have been perfect in this series by thwarting the Panthers in all 12 of their power play chances. Hill played his worst game in this series by allowing three goals — but he did not play badly, per se, as he posted a -0.1 GSAx indicating he was about average. I do not see a sudden blow-up coming from Hill since he is protected by head coach Bruce Cassidy’s sophisticated defensive system which is a passive version of the old New Jersey Devils’ 1-4 scheme. Cassidy is happy to have his team counter-attack with all their scoring talent. We had the Over in Game Three as I expected Florida to come out very aggressive (and perhaps the early injury to Matthew Tkachuk compelled them to change tactics). But after attempting 35 and 31 shots in the first two games of this series, the Panthers only took those 23 shots on Thursday including the game-winner in overtime. On the other hand, the 27 shots Vegas had in Game Three was their lowest number in the series. The Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 22 of their last 35 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 Game Fours in a series Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas has played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss by just one goal to their opponent. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (49) and the Florida Panthers (50). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (47) and the Florida Panthers (48) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-10) has won eight of their last ten games after their 7-2 victory at home against the Panthers on Monday. Florida (54-38-8) has lost two games in a row to fall behind 2-0 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers peppered the Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill with 31 shots after registering 35 shots in Game One but they have only scored four goals. They have yet to score on the Power Play despite the Golden Knights entering this series with a Power Play Kill percentage of just 63%. Florida reached the Stanley Cup Finals with a physical style of play that neutralized Boston before wearing down Toronto and Carolina. This approach has not worked against Vegas. Matthew Tkachuk is spending too much time trying to be a tough guy rather than being a scorer. He scored nine goals in the first three rounds and added 12 assists in those sixteen games while only getting called for 24 penalty minutes. But in this series, Tkachuk has 36 penalty minutes already with three ten-minute misconduct penalties. He has scored only one goal in this series. Panthers head coach Paul Maurice will make plenty of changes after his team has been outscored by eight goals in this series. Top amongst these changes will be to get away from the extra-curricular stuff. The Golden Knights have scored four power-play goals in this series — and they are scoring on 36.4% of their power-play chances in the first two games. This has to change. Florida has an expected Goals-For percentage of 52.11 playing at even strength five-on-five in this series. The Panthers will stay play physical — but the attempts to goad and intimidate Vegas will be reined in since it has backfired. Returning home will also allow Maurice to get Tkachuk playing against either the Jack Eichel/Jonathan Marchessault line or the Mark Stone line — and that should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides. Golden Knights head coach Bruce Cassidy likes to use the William Karlsson line to defend the opposing team’s top line — Vegas was able to slow down Edmonton’s superstar forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with Karlsson. But it is now Maurice rather than Cassidy who has the advantage of the last line change with this series moving to Florida. The Panthers have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals. The Over is 12-4-2 in their last 17 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Panthers have played 5 straight Overs when trailing in the series. Vegas was able to solve the Sergei Bobrovsky riddle by scoring another four times against him before he got pulled at the 7:10 minute mark of the season period. As mentioned above, Florida plays a physical game that frustrated their Eastern Conference rivals in the postseason. The Bruins are comfortable with that style of play — and that was a coin-flip series. But is fair to say that Toronto and Carolina emphasize speed over size — and the Panthers were able to control the middle of the ice in front of Bobrovsky. The Golden Knights present a different problem since they are built to compete against other physical teams in the Pacific Division that favor a “heavy” style of play. The Vegas players are finding room in front of Bobrovsky to screen his vision against their sharpshooters on the outside. Marchessault has an incredible 26.1% scoring percentage on his shots over his last 12 games. The 11-day layover after the Eastern Conference Finals may have cooled him off — or it is the Golden Knights' skill in screening him that has changed things. He has a 5.52 Goals-Against-Average with a .826 save percentage in this series. The +19.7 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark he entered this series in was unsustainable — but Vegas presents a similar threat as did Boston in the opening round. Remember, the Bruins scored 27 goals in that seven-game series while tallying at least three goals in each game. Bobrovsky only started standing on his head when facing the smaller Maple Leafs in the next round. Florida beat the President’s Trophy winner by scoring 26 goals against the Bruins including 15 goals in the final three games after trailing 3-1 in that series. Vegas goalie Adin Hill has faced at least 30 shots in eight of his last ten games — so the Regression Gods may be calling soon after facing so much pressure. The Golden Knights have scored 18 goals in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in two straight games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Vegas played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (47) and the Florida Panthers (48). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (45) and the Vegas Golden Knights (46) in Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (54-38-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 5-2 loss on the road to the Golden Knights on Saturday. Vegas (64-26-10) has won seven of their last nine games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers peppered the Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill with 35 shots — and they were unlucky with three of their shots hitting the goal post. After failing to score on their three power play opportunities and managing only three combined shots in those situations, Florida should be focused on being more aggressive tonight. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and the Over is 7-1-2 in their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Florida has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals. The Over is 11-4-2 in their last 17 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Panthers have played 4 straight Overs when trailing in the series. Vegas was able to solve the Sergei Bobrovsky riddle by scoring four times against him (the final goal was an empty-netter). Florida plays a physical game that frustrated their Eastern Conference rivals in the postseason. The Bruins are comfortable with that style of play — and that was a coin-flip series. But is fair to say that Toronto and Carolina emphasize speed over size — and the Panthers were able to control the middle of the ice in front of Bobrovsky. The Golden Knights present a different problem since they are built to compete against other physical teams in the Pacific Division that favor a “heavy” style of play. Vegas was able to have players find room in front of Bobrovsky to screen his vision against their sharpshooters on the outside. Despite giving up the most goals in the playoffs since Game Six against the Bruins, it would not be fair to conclude that Bobrovsky had a bad game. He posted a +0.22 Goals Saved Above Expectation in Game One. The +19.7 GSAx mark he entered this series in was unsustainable — but Vegas presents a similar threat as did Boston in the opening round. Remember, the Bruins scored 27 goals in that seven-game series while tallying at least three goals in each game. Bobrovsky only started standing on his head when facing the smaller Maple Leafs in the next round. Florida beat the President’s Trophy winner by scoring 26 goals against the Bruins including 15 goals in the final three games after trailing 3-1 in that series. Hill has faced at least 30 shots in seven of his last nines games — so the Regression Gods may be calling soon after facing so much pressure. The Golden Knights have scored 11 goals in their last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in two straight games. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Vegas played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. At home at T-Mobile Arena, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. And in their last 6 opportunities to host the Panthers, 5 of these games finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by three or more goals. 25* NHL Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (45) and the Vegas Golden Knights (46). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-26-10) has lost the last two games in this series after their 4-2 loss at home to the Stars on Saturday. Dallas (56-26-18) now trails by a 3-2 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Adin Hill had not allowed more than three goals in six straight games before Saturday. Hill still has a 2.30 Goals-Against-Average in his ten playoff games this year with a .932 save percentage — and he has +6.75 Goals Saved Above Expectation this postseason. Coming off his three previous losses in these playoffs, Hill has a .925 save percentage in the next game. Vegas has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals. They went into the third period with the game tied before the Stars scored two unanswered goals — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing more than one goal in the third period of their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 44 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total, Dallas has played 26 of these games Under the Total. Dallas suddenly has a hot goaltender between the pipes with Jake Oettinger stopping 27 of the 29 shots he faced on Saturday. After getting benched after seven minutes in the first period of Game Three, Oettinger has allowed only four goals in the last two games with a .941 save percentage and a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average. The Stars have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on home ice.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. 25* NHL Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W17-D6-L14) closes out their season coming off a 3-1 loss to Brentford last Saturday. Leeds United (W7-D10-L20) is winless in their last eight matches after a 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a wild affair with both teams having things still at stake. Tottenham needs a win to qualify for European competition next season — although they can still qualify with a draw and some help). The Hotspurs are not playing well under new manager Ryan Mason. They are winless in their last nine matches on the road. They have conceded five combined goals in their last five matches with shaky play from their backline. They are also playing without their world-class keeper Hugo Lloris — Fraser Forster is a downgrade at the position. Tottenham has only one clean sheet in their last 11 contests across all competitions. But they have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in the English Premier League. With this potentially being Harry Kane’s last match with the team given the rumors that he will move on in the summer transfer window, he will be motivated to go out with a bang for his longtime club. He has a very appetizing opponent in Leeds United who are the worst defensive side in the EPL. The Whites have allowed 74 goals this season, the most in the league. More than 33% of the shots they are giving up are on target — so Kane and company should have plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. Leeds has allowed two or more goals in four straight matches and seven of their last eight contests. They have not generated a clean sheet in 14 straight matches. But the Whites have scored a healthy 47 times with their aggressive style of play in the EPL — and they have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Leeds have seen four or more combined goals scored in three of their last four matches. And they will be playing with desperation this morning since they must win this match to avoid relegation while getting some help in the results from some other matches.

FINAL TAKE: The final day in the EPL tends to see higher-scoring matches — and that will likely be the case in this one with two struggling defensive sides engaged in a contest with both teams needing to get a win. The reverse fixture between these teams resulted in a 4-3 win for Tottenham at home on November 12th. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (22-29) has won two of their last three games after their 9-0 victory in the opening game of this three-game series. Chicago (22-28) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests with that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road. Williamson gets the ball to make his third career professional start after carrying an 0-0 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his first two starts. After a promising first start on the road against Colorado, the left-hander gave up for earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against St. Louis on Sunday. He issued four walks in that effort which continued his problems of command that manifested in his minor league stints. In Triple-A last season, he had a 1.63 WHIP while averaging 5.3 walks per nine innings. In his 34 innings in Triple-A this season, he continued that 5.3 bases-on-balls per nine-inning rate while posting a 1.88 WHIP. He faces a Cubs team that scores 6.3 Runs-Per-Game this season against left-handed pitchers with a .303 Batting Average, a .367 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .859. With the recently called-up Christopher Morel on fire and Seiya Suzuki finally heating up, Chicago has two red-hot hitters on the right side of the plate — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 10 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by four or more runs. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games at home at Wrigley Field — and the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the Total in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Taillon who has an 0-3 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.73 in seven starts. The right-hander is amidst a terrible slump having allowed 19 earned runs in just 12 2/3 innings in his last four starts. He has only struck out 11 batters during that span while issuing six walks. And while Taillon has a 7.80 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in four road starts, those numbers are even worse at home where has been saddled with an 8.49 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .340 in three starts. Taillon’s teams have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when he is pitching in May.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 Batting Average, a .350 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .771. These two teams have played 4 straight Overs against each other. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-25-9) has won five games in a row after their 4-0 shutout victory on the road against the Stars on Tuesday. Dallas (54-26-18) has lost three games in a row to fall behind 0-3 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Pete DeBoer pulled goalie Jake Oettinger after he gave up a third goal on just five shots early in the first period on Tuesday. Oettinger usually plays well after a loss. He had a 22-1-3 record in the regular season coming off a loss with a .933 save percentage — and he has a .913 save percentage coming off a loss in these playoffs. The Stars have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Dallas’ attack will be undermanned tonight with Jamie Benn suspended for the next two games and Evgeni Dadonov doubtful with a lower-body injury. That decimates two-thirds of the Stars’ third forward line. Dadonov has four goals and six assists in 16 playoff games this season. But it is the loss of their captain Benn who is not taking accountability for his terrible play on Tuesday as he claimed that he regretted using his stick to brace his fall that simply inadvertently chocked Mark Stone’s neck on the ice. Benn scored 33 goals and added 45 assists in the regular season. He has three goals and eight assists in this postseason — and he plays on the Dallas power play. The last two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Stars have played 37 of their last 60 home games Under the Total after playing two Unders in a row. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games at home. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-2 in Dallas’ last 11 games in the Western Conference Finals — and the Under is 18-6-2 in their last 26 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Vegas has won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more of their last 21 games. The Golden Knights have scored three or more goals in five straight games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in five straight games. They are getting great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped all 34 of the shots he faced on Tuesday. He is playing with tremendous confidence after frustrating the Edmonton Oilers last round with their dynamic scorers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Hill has a 1.96 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage in seven games in these playoffs. He has generated +6.0 Goals Saved Above Expectation in the postseason. He has been helped by an aggressive Vegas defense that has blocked 266 shots in the playoffs, the second-most in the postseason. The Golden Knights have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. The Stars have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (15) and the Florida Panthers (16) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (53-37-7) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 1-0 victory at home against the Hurricanes on Monday. Carolina (59-25-12) has lost three in a row to fall behind in this series by a 3-0 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Panthers’ goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is as hot as a goaltender can be right now. He enters this game with 67 straight saves after his shutout in Game Three. He has stopped 69 of 70 shots in the last two games — and he has stopped 132 of the 135 shots he has faced in this series. In his last four games, Bobrovsky has a 0.89 Goals-Against-Average and a .973 save percentage. While these numbers are not sustainable, the visit from the Regression Gods is not likely to see a radical change. While Bobrovsky struggled in the regular season, we are talking about a two-time Vezina Trophy winner. The veteran has extended stretches in his career when he was playing at a very high level. He has a .935 save percentage in the playoffs with +19.5 Goals Saved Above Expectation. And Bobrovksy has been helped by head coach Paul Maurice’s style of play with the emphasis on forechecking generating better defensive play in the final month of the regular season that has carried over into the playoffs. Florida has played 7 straight Unders after winning their previous game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. And in their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series, Florida has played 6 straight Unders. In the Game Fours in the previous series against Boston and Toronto, the Panthers only gave up three combined goals. While Bobrovsky’s save streak will likely be snapped tonight, our Under play will be helped by the strong play of the Hurricanes’ goalie Frederick Andersen. It’s not like Florida has evoked memories of the 1980s Wayne Gretzky Edmonton Oilers teams. They have only scored six goals in the first three games in this series — and that includes four overtime periods. In his seven playoff games this postseason, Andersen has a 1.58 GAA and a .937 save percentage. Carolina is an excellent defensive team that led the NHL in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) since the Christmas break. They are limiting the Panthers to just 19.66 shots per game per 60 minutes and 2.17 xGA per 60 minutes in this series. The Hurricanes have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road after losing their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal. They have played 5 straight Unders after losing three games in a row. They have also played 5 straight Unders in the Eastern Conference Finals.

FINAL TAKE: Perhaps this is the game where both teams score two goals before someone takes a 3-2 lead which is followed up by either an empty-netter or a goal that forces overtime. But with both teams playing so tightly disciplined in a physical series with elite goaltending, I do not expect the tone of Game Four to dramatically change (especially for Florida). I do think there will be more power play chances tonight — but the Hurricanes have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by just one goal. If this was a regular season game, I might be more tempted by the contrarian Over play — but since this is the fourth straight playoff game between these two teams, the style and tempos should remain the same. Frankly, we are getting a gift with the Total not dropping to 5. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (15) and the Florida Panthers (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-26-16) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-3 loss in overtime on Friday. Vegas (60-25-9) has won three straight games en route to their 1-0 lead in this series.  

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Stars are scoring 3.62 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have tallied 22 goals after their previous five losses this postseason for a 4.4 Goals-Per-Game average. Dallas has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored three or more goals — and they have played 40 of their last 67 games Over the Total after a game where seven or more combined goals were scored. Jake Oettinger has struggled in these playoffs with a 2.83 Goals-Against-Average and a .902 save percentage in 14 games after giving up four goals on Friday. He was pulled in Games Three and Six last round against the Kraken. Dallas stays on the road where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games. Vegas has scored 13  combined goals in their last three games from eight different players. The Golden Knights have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have scored at least four goals in each of their last three games — and they have played 20 of their last 33 games Over the Total after scoring three or more goals in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total. Goalie Adin Hill bailed them out against Edmonton after Laurent Brossoit suffered an injury in Game Two. But he remains risky moving forward which he demonstrated by allowing the tying goal with under two minutes to go in the third period. The Stars peppered him with 36 shots on Friday — and he will be tested once again in this crucial game for them.  

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has trailed in a playoff series four times this postseason — and 3 of those 4 games finished Over the Total. The Over is also 7-1-1 in the Stars’ last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NHL ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg of this semifinals last Tuesday. Manchester City hosts the second leg at the Etihad.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti instructed his team to play conservatively and with caution in the first leg between these teams — and after Vinicius Junior scored the opening goal at the 36th-minute mark, this directive was even more imperative. Los Blancos do not have the same level of talent as Manchester City — but the reigning Champions League champions have plenty of star power to pull out a close match in the second leg. Real Madrid only generated 0.89 expected goals — but they executed what Ancelotti wanted by limiting the Sky Blues to just 0.37 expected goals. But Man City was able to settle for the draw when Kevin DeBruyne evened the score in the 67th minute. So it is now winner take all back at the Etihad. Los Blancos followed that match up on Saturday with a 1-0 win at home against Getafe in La Liga action. They have now scored in 16 straight matches across all competitions. They have also scored 26 goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League this season for a robust 2.36 Goals-Per-Game average. But the defensive play for Real Madrid has not been nearly as stout when playing away from home this year. In five home matches against upper-tier competition, Los Blancos held Liverpool, Chelsea RB Leipzig, Barcelona, and Real Sociedad to a combined 4.4 expected goals. But when playing on the road against those five sides, Real Madrid conceded a combined 9.5 expected goals (xG) with Liverpool accumulating 2.2 xG, Chelsea, RP Leipzig, and Barcelona all generating 1.9 xG, and Read Sociedad registering 1.9 xG. Now Los Blancos have to try to again slow down what is probably the best-attacking team in the world in this Cityzens group. Man City has scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches across all competitions after their 3-0 win at Everton on Sunday. They matched Real Madrid’s 26 goals in 11 Champions League competitions this season. Manager Pep Guardiola may have been comfortable with the conservative tactics that Ancelotti deployed last week knowing they had the advantage of the second leg being back at the Etihad. Man City has won 15 straight matches at home while scoring two or more goals in 14 of those contests. With the addition of Erling Haaland this season, Guardiola has his first world-class number-nine striker at the top of the pitch for the first time since Sergio Aguero from several seasons ago. Haaland has been a goal-scoring machine for this team with 36 goals across 33 matches in all competitions for the Sky Blues this season. But the defense has been an issue with this team. Ederson did get the clean sheet shutout on Sunday — but that was the first time he had not conceded in his last matches across all competitions. The team's two previous clean sheets were with backup keeper Stefan Ortega getting the spot start. Guardiola will not have Nathan Ake available for this match as he recovers from injury.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown of European superpowers is a rematch of the Champions League semifinals last year. In the first leg at the Etihad, Man City won by a 4-3 score in what was a wild up-and-down affair. And after scoring first in the second leg in Madrid, the Cityzens thought they were in control before Karim Benzema put his team on his back with Real Madrid scoring three late goals to steal a 6-5 aggregate score victory. Benzema exposed a shaky Man City defense against counterattacks — and he is ready to make noise again with the help of a rapidly improving Junior. But Haaland was signed in the summer to a big contract for precisely this moment. The low scoring in the first leg was the outlier between these two teams. The urgency of this tied second leg will lead to aggressive play, fireworks, and plenty of goals (one way or another) given the counter-attacking prowess of both sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (37) and the Seattle Kraken (38) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (53-24-16) has won two games in a row in this series after their 5-2 victory at home against the Kraken on Thursday. Seattle (52-34-8) has lost three of their last four games to fall behind in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kraken got an inspired goaltending effort from Philip Grubauer in the first round of the playoffs who seemed motivated to prove something to his old team — he posted a .934 save percentage in that seven-game series with Seattle upsetting Colorado and dethroning the reigning Stanley Cup champions. But Grubauer has regressed back to his underwhelming play in this series which has made him a big disappointment for this expansion club that targeted him as their big free agent signing before their inaugural season last year. Grubauer has allowed nine goals in the last two games while posting a .786 save percentage. His postseason numbers of a 3.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .903 save percentage look very close to his regular season numbers. At home during the regular season, Grubauer had a 3.06 GAA and a .886 save percentage. Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by three or more goals. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in two straight games. The Kraken face the prospect of elimination tonight — so they will be aggressive and will pull Grubauer to grab the man advantage earlier than usual if they are trailing in the third period. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Dallas has seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last game. And while they have scored 11 combined goals in the last two games, the Stars have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road after scoring four or more goals in two straight games. Dallas has also received disappointing goaltending in this series. Jake Oettinger has a 2.65 GAA and a .907 save percentage in the postseason. In his last three games, he has allowed 10 goals while posting a .851 save percentage. The Stars go on the road looking to end this series tonight — and the Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 games on the road. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 26 games in the Western Conference Semifinals, the Over is 17-4-5.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Overs — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Seattle. The Kraken have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses by two or more goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (37) and the Seattle Kraken (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (50-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-43) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. Wiggins may still play because his defense against LeBron James is so important — but his offensive efforts will probably be limited. The Warriors have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, Golden State has played 19 of their last 28 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 playoff games Under the Total when facing potential elimination. Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. The Lakers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when battling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (29) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (30) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Florida (49-37-7) was on a six-game winning streak before their 2-1 loss at home to the Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Toronto (55-25-12) still trails in this series by a 3-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have scored exactly two goals in six straight games — but the books and the market have not adjusted with the Total still set at 6.5 tonight. Toronto has abandoned their aggressive offensive approach to play more cautiously and with a defensive mindset. They only generated 2.66 expected goals on Wednesday while only 25 shots. They have no more than 30 shots in four of their last six games — and they have not topped more than 25 shots in three of those games. But this approach is making life easier for their goaltender as they have held Florida to under 30 shots in all four games in this series. Head coach Sheldon Keefe seems committed to this philosophy against the high-scoring Panthers — and he will likely stick to this plan with rookie Joseph Woll between the pipes. He stopped 24 of the 25 shots he faced on Wednesday. Woll has talent. His 2.37 Goals-Against-Average and .927 save percentage in 21 appearances in the AHL was similar to his 2.16 GAA and .932 save percentage in his seven starts in the regular season. He passed the tough test in Game Four in a hostile environment. Toronto has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a one-goal victory against a division opponent in their last game. They have played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Maple Leafs have played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in four straight games. They have also played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Florida has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They are getting outstanding goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky who is in the zone right now with a 1.99 GAA and a .934 save percentage in this series. The Panthers have played 8 straight Unders on the road in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Toronto. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (29) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 129-124 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns head coach Monty Williams has his team playing at a faster pace with Chris Paul sidelined with his groin injury. Paul tends to slow things down running the point in the half-court offense. With Devin Booker running the show, Phoenix is racing up and down the court with Booker averaging 36.8 Points-Per-Game in this series. Williams is also giving more minutes to T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross who are scorers but liabilities on defense. The result on Sunday was a scoring fest with 253 combined points scored. But despite these tactical adjustments, the books have remained steady with the Total remaining in the 227-228 range while letting the market make big decisions on where this series will go. Well, the market loves the Over tonight — but I think Game Five is the time to embrace our contrarian spirits and play the Under. Booker is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 38 contests. Phoenix should play better on defense — and Williams might be compelled to rely on players like Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie instead of Warren, Ross, or Landry Shamet (who nailed five shots from behind the arc in Game Four) thinking his team can’t outrun and outgun Denver in their own building. The Suns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home. They have also played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver had their best shooting game in their last six contests by making 56.2% of their shots — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better in their last game. Head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make 55% or more of their shots — and they have also played a decisive 44 of their last 65 games at home Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. While the Nuggets ranked 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — and they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. And while the last two games in this series have finished Over the Total, Denver has paled 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this game should finish Over the Total. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting — and that was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Realistically, the Knicks cannot expect to do much better than that on the defensive end of the court — and Miami still scored 105 points. New York has not covered the point spread in any of the three games in this series — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Miami’s 38.9% field goal percentage was the worst shooting performance in their last 43 games. They only made 7 of their 32 shots (21.9%) from behind the arc. After a subpar regular season in their 3-point shooting, the Heat regained their shooting touch from last season as they are nailing 39.2% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs, the second-best mark of all teams in the postseason. Jimmy Butler returned to the court and scored 26 points — so while he is listed as questionable again tonight, that seems to be merely a formality. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court — so his presence helps the Over. Miami has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Heat have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other in Miami Over the Total despite Game Three finishing Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (57) and the Vegas Golden Knights (58) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (54-25-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 6-4 loss on the road to the Golden Knights on Wednesday. Vegas (56-23-9) has won seven of their last eight games after taking a 1-0 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Oilers lost Game One despite Leon Draisaitl scoring four times on Wednesday. He now has 11 goals in these playoffs with another four assists. Connor McDavid assisted on two of those goals — he now has nine assists to go along with his three goals in this postseason. Edmonton leads the NHL by scoring 4.0 Goals-Per-Game after that output. They have scored 20 goals in their last four games while putting up at least four goals in all four of those games. The Oilers have played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing on the road to a divisional rival. They have also played 14 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least three goals. Defense remains the problem with this team as they have allowed 17 combined goals in their last four games — and each of those opponents scoring at least three times five straight games and six of their last seven contests. Rookie goaltender Stuart Skinner looked shaky at times in giving up five goals on the 33 shots he faced. After a solid season for Edmonton where he posted a 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage, he has taken a step back under the pressure in the playoffs with a 3.68 GAA and a .883 save percentage in seven starts. The Oilers have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing three or more goals in at least three straight games in a row. They have also played 26 of their last 36 games on the road Over the Total. Vegas is a scoring juggernaut with forward Mark Stone back on the ice healthy again. First-year head coach Bruce Cassidy is comfortable rolling four forward lines with Jack Eichel and Chandler Stephenson having found a great chemistry together — so Stone has been inserted to anchor the team’s “third line”. Stone scored his fourth postseason goal on the power play in the first period on Wednesday before Stephenson scored his fourth goal in the third period. The Golden Knights have scored 24 combined goals in their last five games while generating at least four goals in each of those games. Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. They have also played 33 of their last 52 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 12 games at home, the Golden Knights have played 9 of these games Over the Total. But the Achilles’ heel for this team is their goaltending. Cassidy is trusting Laurent Brossoit as his best option (and he might be) after he posted a 2.17 GAA and .927 save percentage in 10 starts after being called up from the minors in the second half of the season. But like Skinner, those numbers have declined under the pressure of playoff hockey as he has a 2.79 GAA and a .899 save percentage in seven postseason games this year.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Vegas. Edmonton has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (57) and the Vegas Golden Knights (58). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (33) and the New Jersey Devils (34) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (49-25-14) forced a Game Seven in this series with their 5-2 victory at home against the Devils on Saturday. New Jersey (54-25-9) had won three games in a row before losing Game Six.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have not allowed more than two goals in five of the six games in this series (excluding empty-netters). The Under is 9-4-1 in New York’s last 14 games after a victory in their last game. Additionally, the Rangers have played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 27 of their last 39 road games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored four or more goals. Goalie Igor Shesterkin has been outstanding in this series — he has only allowed 11 goals (with the Devils scoring two empty-netters). He has a 1.79 Goals-Against-Average and a .939 save percentage — and he has made +7.3 saves above expectations (GSAx) in this series. New York goes on the road where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games — and they have played 25 of their last 37 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. New Jersey has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a divisional rival. Akira Schmid allowed five goals on the 29 shots he faced on Saturday. But he still has a 1.72 GAA and a .937 save percentage in this series — and he has played much better than Vitek Vanacek who he replaced after Game Two.

FINAL TAKE: The Devils have played 55 of their last 82 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road where they lost by three or more goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (33) and the New Jersey Devils (34). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (47-41) had won three games in a row in this series before their 118-89 upset loss to the Kings as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this best-of-seven series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings played one of their best defensive games of the season by holding the Warriors under 100 points. They limited Golden State to just 37.2% shooting which was a season-low for the reigning NBA champions. Head coach Mike Brown will implore his young team to maintain that type of effort on the defensive end of the court in this Game Seven. But Sacramento only made 40.4% of their shots on Friday in that elimination game — and I do not expect a significant improvement on that mark in this Game Seven with the pressure on this team that lacks deep playoff experience. As it is, the Kings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Sacramento has also played 5 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 11 games after losing to a Pacific Division rival, they have played their next 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home by double-digits. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams in Sacramento. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (11) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (12) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (53-23-11) had won three games in a row in this series before losing at home to the Lightning by a 4-2 score on Thursday. Tampa Bay (47-31-9) staved off elimination but still trails by a 3-2 margin in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs had scored 16 combined goals in their previous three games before only scoring twice on Thursday. They had scored at least three times in each game in this series before Game Five. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last contest. The Maple Leafs are loaded with offensive talent which helped them lead seventh in the league in expected Goals (xG) per 60 minutes at even strength. But their defense ranks in the bottom half of the NHL since the Christmas break in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes. Toronto has seen six or more combined goals in 17 of their last 24 games. Perhaps goalie Ilya Samsonov has not been given much help from the Maple Leafs blue line — but his 3.61 Goals-Against-Average and .886 save percentage in this series are not what they thought they were getting when signing him as a free agent in the offseason. Tonight’s game should be another higher-scoring game. Toronto has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%. Tampa Bay has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a win on the road. The Lightning remained loaded with offensive talent — and they have scored four or more goals in three of the games in this series. But the Tampa Bay blue line has taken a step or two back since their Stanley Cup title run and even their loss to Colorado in the Stanley Cup Finals last season. The Lightning ranked 19th in xGA in the regular season. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is perhaps amid his worst postseason this spring. He has a 3.90 GAA and a .870 save percentage in this series. They have seen six or more combined goals scored in 14 of their last 19 games. They return home where they have played 26 of their last 39 home games Over the Total with the number set at 6 or higher. Tampa Bay has also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60% to 75% range.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home by two or more goals. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing in Tampa Bay. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (11) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Kraken (51) and the Colorado Avalanche (52) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Seattle (48-30-8) evened this series at 2-2 with their 3-2 win in overtime at home on Monday. Colorado (53-25-8) had won four of their previous five games before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche gave up two goals in the first period before holding the Kraken for more than 50 minutes before losing in overtime. After they tied the score up in the second period, these two teams played a scoreless third period — and I expect more of the same in this game that should be low-scoring. As it is, Colorado has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing by one goal in their previous contest. The Under is 13-4-2 in the Avalanche’s last 19 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last contest. And while they have given up seven combined goals in their last two games, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in two straight games. They come back home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. The Aves will be without a suspended Cole Makar tonight — and while he is an outstanding defensive man, the team will miss his offensive contributions as well as steady play on the power play. The team is also without forward Valeri Nichushkin who is out due to personal reasons. While these absences hurt the Colorado attack, this remains a team that ranked third in the league in expected Goals Allowed (xGA). Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their previous game in overtime. The Kraken have had the second-best xGA in the NBA since Christmas — but they rank only 21st in the league in expected goals since then. Seattle has played 4 straight Unders on the road — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Colorado. The Avalanche have also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NHL 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Kraken (51) and the Colorado Avalanche (52). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (31) and the Los Angeles Kings (32) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (51-24-10) has lost two of the first three games in this series after their 3-2 loss in overtime on Friday. Los Angeles (48-26-11) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings' physical style of play has frustrated the Oilers in this series. While Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are getting their share of points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are goalless in this series after scoring 37 and 36 goals in the regular season respectively. Los Angeles is getting great goaltending from Joonas Korpisalo who they picked up from Columbus at the trade deadline. He stopped  38 of the 40 shots he faced in the 63:24 minutes of Game Three. In his five starts at home in the regular season at Crypto.com Arena with the Kings, Korpisalo had a 1.38 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Kings are not at full strength with their offensive attack with Kevin Fiala out since April 1st with a lower-body injury. He scored 23 goals and added 49 assists in the regular season. While he is skating in practice, he is not ready to return to action just yet. The Under is 9-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 14 games on home ice. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the Pacific Division. Edmonton has seen the Under go 6-2-1 in Edmonton’s last 9 games against Pacific Division rivals. The Oilers have attempted at least 33 shots in 11 straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total after attempting 33 or more shots in three or more games in a row. Edmonton did get a performance from rookie goaltender Stuart Skinner who stopped 28 of the 31 shots he faced. The Oilers are a high-scoring team but they do adjust to playoff hockey in April by grinding out lower-scoring games. They have now played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total in April. Edmonton has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Oilers have played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (31) and the Los Angeles Kings (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (55-29) has won three games in a row after their 122-113 victory at home against the Timberwolves as an 8.5-point favorite in Game Two on Wednesday. Minnesota (43-43) has lost three of their last four games after that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. And while they allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.6% of their shots, that was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense — but head coach Mike Malone has this group playing better on that end of the court as of late. While Denver ranked 21st in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improved to 16th in that metric after the All-Star Break. While that is still the middle of the road, the market has been slow to adjust as the team trends I will cite indicates. The Nuggets held Minnesota to no more than 27 points in three of the four quarters in Game Two after limiting them to 80 points in Game One — and that was on the heels of only giving up 95 points to the up-tempo Sacramento team (albeit with their backups playing) in the final game of the regular season. Denver has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Nuggets took a 64-49 lead at halftime on Wednesday — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after holding a halftime lead of 15 or more points. Denver goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 13 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. The bigger problem for this team is that there can experience scoring lulls on the other end of the court. They exploded for 40 points in the third quarter on Wednesday but only scored 73 points for the rest of the game. They have scored 107 or fewer points in four of their last eight games including those 80 points in Game One. Aaron Gordon is doing an outstanding job in slowing down Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has scored only 21 combined points in this series on 8 of 27 shooting. He has committed nine turnovers and gotten to the free throws line only four times. Game Two flew Over the 222.5-point total — but Minnesota has played 16 of their last 19 home games Uner the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The T-Wolves return home where the Under has an 11-4-1 record in their last 16 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the T-Wolves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the Buffalo Sabres (12). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (39-35-7) has won two games in a row after their 3-2 win against Carolina on Monday. Buffalo (40-34-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 6-2 loss at New Jersey on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Senators began the month still in a position to make a run to earn the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs — but a three-game losing streak put them out of reach. They have since scored a combined ten goals in upsetting Tampa Bay and the Hurricanes to begin the week. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last contest. In their last five games, they are scoring 3.4 Goals-Per-Game — but they are surrendering 4.0 Goals-Per-Game during that stretch. Goaltending has been an issue all season — and they send out Mads Sogaard tonight to get more work in before the season ends. In her 138 minutes between the pipes this month, Sogaard has a 3.91 Goals-Against-Average and a .857 save percentage. Most of his 18 appearances this season have been at home. This is his seventh start and eighth appearance on the road this year where he has been saddled with a 3.94 GAA and a .857 save percentage. The Over is 7-2-1 in the Senators’ last 10 games against Atlantic Division rivals. The Over is 4-1-2 in Buffalo’s last 7 games against Atlantic Division foes. The Sabres have played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing five or more goals — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing six or more goals in their last contest. The Over is also 19-5-2 in Buffalo’s last 26 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. They return home where they are allowing 4.0 Goals-Per-Game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games on home ice. Craig Anderson appears to be their likely goaltender tonight to make his first start this month. In four starts in March, Anderson had a 4.76 GAA and a .841 save percentage. In his 12 games and 11 starts at home, Anderson has a 3.28 GAA and a .905 save percentage. Buffalo is two points ahead of the Senators in the division and also not making the postseason — and the Over is 6-1-1 in the Sabres’ last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Ottawa has won the last two meetings between these two teams after beating them by a 3-1 score on January 1st. The Sabres have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the Buffalo Sabres (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) and the San Diego State Aztecs (702) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 79-76 upset victory against Kansas State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. San Diego State (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 57-56 upset win against Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: FAU made 48.1% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. And they allowed Kansas State to nail 46.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 contests. The Owls have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days between contests. FAU is a good defensive team that ranks 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing on the road — and they rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. But the Owls score -4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home as well. And they are very dependent on making 3-point shots with 44.0% of their shots from the field coming from behind the arc, ranking 35th in the nation. They are a similar but not quite as dynamic opponent as Alabama — and the Aztecs coaxed the Crimson Tide into missing 24 of their 27 shots from 3-point range in the Sweet Sixteen and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game going into that contest with San Diego State — and FAU is not much better with their consistency rating being 219th in the nation. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting FAU’s scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this mid-major Cinderella. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 282nd in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 27.8% rate which is the second-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only does San Diego State hold their opponents to 22.2% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Owls average 10 made 3s per game — and the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average eight or more made 3s per game. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 345th slowest in the nation. The Aztecs have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after holding five or more straight opponents to no higher than 40% shooting from the field. But a concern for San Diego State is that their scoring fall by -5.5 points per 100 possessions when they are playing on the road. They have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: FAU has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. San Diego State has played 7 straight Unders on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) and the San Diego State Aztecs (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (665) and the North Texas Mean Green (666) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (29-9) has won four in a row — and 12 of their last 13 contests — after their 88-86 win in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. North Texas (30-7) has won four in a row — and seven of their last eight contests — with their 56-54 win against Wisconsin as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UAB has seen the Over go 30-14-1 in their last 45 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 31 of their last 44 games Over the Total on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, with that game with the Wolverines finishing Over the 151-point Total, the Blazers have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. UAB scores +1.1 points per 100 possessions when on the road versus when they are playing at home — but they are also giving up +3.1 points per 100 possessions when away from home as opposed to when they are playing at home. The Blazers have also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total against conference opponents. North Texas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Mean Green have not allowed more than 59 points in their last four games — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points four straight games. North Texas plays outstanding defense — and they combine those skills by playing at a crawl’s pace. But the Mean Green allows +3.5 more points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. They are also scoring +2.7 more points per 100 possessions in their last ten games on the road versus their season average on the road. They are playing smaller lineups and at a quicker pace in this tournament with 6’10 Abou Ousmane now away from the team. North Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when playing for just the second time in the last seven days — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth meeting between these two teams — with each game seeing a steady increase in scoring. North Texas won the first game between these teams on January 21st with a 63-52 victory. They then won the rematch on February 29th by an 82-79 score in double-overtime that had a 62-62 score after regulation. UAB avenged those two losses in the Conference USA Semifinals with a 76-69 victory on March 10th. That game was played on a neutral court where the Blazers have now played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (665) and the North Texas Mean Green (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). THE SITUATION: Dallas (37-39) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 127-104 win at Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Philadelphia (49-26) has lost three in a row — and four of their last five — after a 116-111 loss at Denver as a 7-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks stepped to make 56.6% of their shots against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last 36 games. But Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better from the field in their last game. Despite that effort, the Mavericks are only scoring 113.9 points per 100 possessions in their last ten games, ranking 23rd in the league over that span. The acquisition of Kyrie Irving has not worked in generating a healthy and cohesive “big two” with Luka Doncic who recently conceded he is miserable right now. Dallas is too reliant on making 3s — they lead the NBA by attempting 48.6% of their shots from behind the arc. They make 37.2% of their 3s which ranks ninth in the league — but it comes at the expense of being last in the NBA in rebounding. The Mavericks pull down only 22.9% of their missed shots, the lowest mark in the league. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point-spread win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. On the road, the Mavericks have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when the total is set at 230 or higher. An encouraging development for head coach Jason Kidd’s team was the play of their defense as they held the Pacers to 41.9% shooting. The Mavs’ defense has been bad this year — but a better effort on that end can make a difference. Dallas is tied for the last spot in the Western Conference playoff race — they would lose out to Oklahoma City to qualify for the play-in game so this is an important contest. The Mavericks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia will want to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 50.6% of their shots, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. Philly has seen a dip in their 3-point shooting — they are making only 36.6% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games as opposed to their 38.6% shooting mark from behind the arc overall. But the Sixers are defending the perimeter better as of late as they rank second in the NBA by holding their opponents to hit just 32.1% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games. In their last ten games, Philly ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Back at home, the 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against teams not winning at least 40% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Joel Embiid and James Harden are listed as questionable tonight with nagging injuries. While Embiid is an MVP candidate who excels at both ends of the court, Harden’s potential absence certainly helps our Under play. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.