Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears OVER 48.5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 58 h 9 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Bucs 9:30: Seahawks have progressively gotten better every week while TB has not. Seahawks on a 4-0 ATS run while TB is a money burning 0-6-1 in their last 7 games. Seahawks are relatively healthy with limited injuries while TB's offensive line keeps shuffling and top receiver Evans is nursing a sore ankle. Like the Seahawks' run game. Top Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III produced another impressive 100+ yard game last week. And the Seahawks are a sweet 5-1 ATS after rushing for more than 150+ yards. That run game surely opens the pass game for QB Geno Smith who is getting time behind the young but overachieving offensive line. On the other hand, TB run game is the worst in the NFL. And with the reshuffled offensive line, Brady should once again find difficultly getting the ball to his targets while facing the all improving Seattle defense that has made great strides over the last four weeks. Seahawks have had success traveling outside the United States whereas TB was 0-3 in London. We'll grab the Seahawks here. |
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11-12-22 | Maryland v. Penn State -10.5 | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
Maryland/Penn State 12:30: Maryland is at it again with their late season slide. Now 0-11 SU/ATS during the regular season following a win from "game seven" out over the last 10 seasons. On the other hand, Penn State turning it up as the season winds down on a 3-0 ATS run. Maryland wants revenge from last year's blowout loss but they're not going to get it. Nittany Lions 9-0 ATS as home favorite of less than 15 points vs .500 or greater opponent with revenge. Penn State the call. |
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11-12-22 | Purdue +7 v. Illinois | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Purdue/Illinois Noon: Purdue has owned this series including last season's 13-9 slugfest win. And the Boilermakers are 3-1 ATS at Champaign. Both of these teams coming off a loss. Illinois couldn't punch the ball in last week at home vs Michigan State. Purdue got choked out by a tough Iowa team. Illinois has the Top Defense in the NCAA but does face arguably the best offense they've faced all year. Aiden O'Connell and company are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after accumulating less than 170 yards passing. Sure, Illinois has lockdown corner Devon Witherspoon who most likely will take away top Purdue receiver Charlie Jones; however, Durham and Downing will have to step up their game. And 600+ rushing yard RB Mockobee can be leaned on. Purdue defense gives up yardage but solid in the red zone and that is where Illinois struggles. And keep in mind that Jeff Brohm (HC) is a sweet 20-6 ATS as a dog of 4+ points, including a perfect 10-0 ATS off a loss. Purdue which is one game behind Illinois in the West Division will find a way to stay in this one. |
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11-12-22 | Rutgers +10.5 v. Michigan State | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rutgers/Michigan State Noon: Rutgers may not be able to compete yet with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan or even Minnesota; however, they can be competitive vs the Spartans. The visitor in this series is 5-0 ATS. The Rutgers' offense sputters with QB Winsatt but MSU defense is yielding. Spartans allow a generous 427 YPG and have just 2 takeaways. Meanwhile, Scarlett Knights have a solid secondary and 18th in the nation in yards allowed. Sure, MSU blasted Rutgers 31-13 last year but that was with Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks #1) was running roughshod through secondaries. Spartans can't be trusted off a SU dog win at 1-9 ATS. Take the double digits. |
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11-12-22 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +9 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/West Virginia Noon: For the most part, Mounties have played well in Morgantown this season. A few breaks here and there and WV could be 3-1 ATS at home; for example, a last second bomb against TCU did them in on a cover. The OT loss to KU was inexcusable early in the season. But J.T. Daniels hangs in the pocket well and needs his receivers to step up. They've dropped too many balls. We'll look for the Mounties to get it together here; after all, they have a nine-game losing streak in this series and face the weakest Oklahoma defense in years. HC Neal Brown is a sweet 11-3 ATS when coming off a loss of 14+. We'll take the generous number of points. |
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11-10-22 | Falcons -2.5 v. Panthers | 15-25 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
Falcons/Panthers 8:15: In this matchup on October 30th, Falcons won but failed to cover in a wild 37-34 OT win. The game for Atlanta was in the balance in the final seconds of regulation when an inexcusable breakdown in coverage cost them the cover. We'll look for Atlanta to learn from it and move forward. Last week, they had control of the game against the Chargers only to lose the ball on a takeaway late to set up the Chargers with a game winning kick for the SU loss and push (+3). Arthur Smith has his team on the cusp of winning games, but turnovers are hurting them. Fortunately, the Panthers are in worse shape. With their head coach fired, benched QB (Mayfield), two defensive assistants fired last week after their latest loss, the Panthers find ways to lose, such as in the waning seconds of the October 30th matchup. They're not ready for prime time yet. Unfortunately for them tonight, they'll see C. Patterson who didn't play on October 30th (knee). Interesting trends favoring Atlanta: Arthur Smith is 4-1 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. The Falcons are a perfect 10-0 ATS on the road off a non-division game vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU losses. Furthermore, Atlanta is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a favorite off a SU loss vs a division opponent with revenge off a road game. Falcons the call. |
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11-08-22 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +2.5 | 37-21 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
11-08-22 | Eastern Michigan -6.5 v. Akron | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Akron 7:00: Eastern Michigan has been a good traveler in Creighton's tenure. And they're extremely dangerous on the road off a loss under Chris Creighton; as a matter of fact, they're 23-5-1 ATS on the road when coming off a loss. Tonight, they face a down and out Akron team that's constantly rebuilding. They've lost 8 straight games, been competitive in a few, but fade late in games. First, they don't have a run game (129th in NCAA), they turn the ball over frequently (129th), and have a defense that can't stop anyone (allow 37 PPG). Their duel threat QB DJ Irons has some talented receivers to go to, but the line can't hold up long enough for him to complete passes. Irons has been sacked a ridiculous 5.2 times per game. EM defense only has 14 sacks on the season, but Jose Ramirez has 7 of them and 12 TFL's. He's surely licking his chops to play tonight. Offensively, the Eagles use two QBs: traditional drop-back Taylor Powell and mobile Austin Smith. They're helped considerably by the rushing of RB Samson Evans who has 722 rush yards on the year along with 9 rushing TDs. Eastern Michigan is a win away from going bowling and it should come here. We'll lay the points. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens -122 v. Saints | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
Ravens/Saints 8:15: This line went from Ravens (-3) to (-1') after news broke TE Mark Andrews and RB Gus Edwards are out. I won't sweat it. Ravens' TE Likely turned in a stellar performance at Tampa Bay on Thursday the 27th. And veteran journeyman RB Kenyon Drake showed he still had plenty of juice left in him. The Baltimore offensive line is starting to gel as they wore out TB defense late last Thursday. Even RB Justice Hill is averaging 6.4 YPC in a limited role. Sure, Lamar Jackson won't have deep threat Bateman (out), but Duvernay has shown that he's capable of stepping up. Harbaugh has a next-man-up philosophy, and he gets the best out of his players. Saints' defensive secondary won't have star CB Lattimore, so there will be a void in the secondary for QB Jackson to exploit. On the other hand, Ravens' getting depth defensively as RDE Calais Campbell is good to go. And the Ravens absolutely stole Roquan Smith, arguably the best MLB in the NFL, from the Bears. He had a quick cram session and will play tonight. His superior instincts should make a seamless transition tonight. Definitely don't trust Dennis Allen as a HC; after all, he's 1-8 ATS off a SU win. And Andy Dalton has never been a consistent winner at QB. We'll grab the Ravens! |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
Seattle/Arizona 4:05: Seahawks dramatically turned their season around with a much-improved defense. And QB Geno Smith leads the league in completion percentage. Moreover, the run game is cooking behind rookie Walker III. Meanwhile, Arizona continues its struggles and underachieving under Kingsbury. Seattle won the first game of this division series back on October 16th 19-9 in Seattle. The Seahawks are a much better team now while the Cardinals continue to search for answers. Seattle is 6-2-1 ATS at Arizona and the road team is 11-4-1 ATS in this series. Seattle the call. |
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11-06-22 | Panthers v. Bengals OVER 42.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Panthers/Bengals 1:00: Both secondaries have thinned out with injuries. Carolina has S Burris (concussion) out and C Donte Jackson laboring with a sprained ankle. Bengals' QB Burrow should bounce back strong today despite the loss of Chase (hip). He still has Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst and RB Mixon to go to. Bengals' ground game not good but could start cooking today vs the mediocre run-stop-unit of Panthers (23rd). On the other hand, Carolina will stay with P.J. Walker as their QB. And they should! He's in rhythm with receivers and putting points on the board; moreover, RB D'onta Foreman filling the RB void for McCaffrey (SF). He's running the rock hard and opening up the passing game. Bengals' secondary thinning with Awuzie (knee), Flowers (hamstring), Hilton (finger) all laboring. And the run stop unit of Cincy leaves much to be desired (21st). We got about 3 points of value with this total and I'm going "over". |
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11-06-22 | Colts v. Patriots -5 | 3-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Colts/Patriots 1:00: Colts struggling and making changes. OC Brady fired this week while versatile RB Hines was shipped to Buffalo. And Jonathon Taylor, who was brilliant last year running the rock, is no more (77 YPG). And he's OUT today. Ineffective QB Ryan remains on the bench while 2nd year QB Ehlinger will make his 2nd NFL start. Belichick feasts on rookies or inexperienced QBs and should dial up a solid defensive game plan. And he's a sweet 19-4 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. Patriots are 12-2 ATS at home off a division road game vs a non-division opponent. We'll look for NE to get it done. |
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11-06-22 | Chargers v. Falcons +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Chargers/Falcons 1:00: Falcons' secondary is not good and not well coached as exhibited last week in the waning seconds of what should have been a win and cover in regulation. And you would think Chargers' QB Herbert is licking his chops watching the Panthers/Falcons film of last week; however, Herbert won't have his top receiver Keenan Allan (hamstring) nor Mike Williams (ankle). Chargers had to bring up a practice squad player - Keelan Doss - who last played in 2020 with the Raiders in a limited role. Meanwhile, Falcons get back their top playmaker off the IR Patterson to add to an already strong offensive unit. Falcons have been a solid cover team this season and we'll stay on them here. |
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11-06-22 | Raiders v. Jaguars +2.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Raiders/Jaguars 1:00: Can't trust Josh McDaniels laying points on the road. He's now 0-5 ATS with his less than .500 team against a less than .500 opponent. Jaguars are in games with a solid defense and productive offense (9th) but turnovers are doing them in. Look for them to clean it up today vs a Raiders' team that's not opportunistic defensively (32nd in the league forcing turnovers). And they allow 5 PPG more than the Jaguars do. Jaguars the call. |
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11-05-22 | Clemson -3.5 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
Clemson/Notre Dame 7:30: Well rested Clemson, ranked #4 in College Football Playoff Rankings, should turn it up a notch here. They got a scare vs Syracuse on the 22nd and were fortunate to have Fr QB Cade Klubnik come in to rally the Tigers past the Orangemen in the second half. Tigers are deep in a lot of areas and sport a better scoring defense than their counterpart. Clemson is notorious for playing down to their opponent at times but should come out swinging for the fences tonight against the surging Irish who won 5 of their last 6. Tigers are 5-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Clemson. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee +9.5 v. Georgia | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Tennessee/Georgia 3:30: It isn't often the #1 ranked team in college football is GETTING points to near double digits! Georgia, of course, is incensed that a team they beat 41-17 last year is ranked higher than them. Nevertheless, the road to the NCAA Championship usually goes through Alabama. And the Vol's took them down on the 15th. So far, no team has been capable of slowing down the Tennessee offense (#1 nationally). Georgia's defense not what it was a year ago. And the Bulldogs won't have star LB Nolan Smith (out) in the lineup. Moreover, Bulldogs only sacking QB at a 1.2 SPG clip this season, not nearly as dominant as last year's bunch. I do realize Tennessee's pass defense leaves a lot to be desired - ranked in bottom tier of NCAA; however, Hendon Hooker and company can trade points with the best of them. We'll grab the points. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Baylor/Oklahoma 3:00: Both teams run the football well, have above average QBs and athletes who can make plays; however, the difference is in the defensive execution. Oklahoma has been gutted on the ground to the tune of 198 YPG. Baylor's defense allows just 113 YPG. Baylor will surely attempt to exploit the Sooners' run stop unit with leading rusher Reese; consequently, that should eventually open the RPO windows vs the Sooners' linebackers. On the other hand, defensive minded Baylor HC Aranda should have his unit well prepared to face QB Gabriel and company. Baylor's covered this series for 4 straight and finally have near equal talent as Oklahoma. Oklahoma 1-5 ATS before West Virginia and 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Baylor the call. |
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11-05-22 | Florida v. Texas A&M -2.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Florida/Texas A&M Noon: Texas A&M severely underachieving considering Jimbo Fisher nabbed the #1 recruiting class for 2022. Sitting at 3-5 SU and in danger of missing out on a bowl bid, look for the Aggies to turn it around here. Fisher is sticking with QB Conner Weigman after his strong outing vs Ole Miss last week. The Aggies desperately need of establishing a ground game. They've been outrushed in 6 of last 7 games going 2-5 SU. Today, they face a struggling run stop unit in a defense that's allowing nearly 30 PPG. Florida is 1-6 ATS before facing South Carolina and an amazing 0-11 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss the last 2 1/2 seasons! This series has been closely contested but like A&M to eke out the win and cover at home. |
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11-04-22 | Duke -9.5 v. Boston College | 38-31 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
11-03-22 | Eagles -13 v. Texans | 29-17 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Eagles/Texans 8:15: Tried to make an argument for supporting the Texans here; however, I can't. They're bottom feeders of the league in scoring and allowing points. They have trouble running the football (92.4 YPG) aand expecting QB Mills to make plays with limited surrounding talent vs a top tier defense, is an uphill battle. Worse off, top vertical threat Cooks is out. Ball hawking Philadelphia secondary lead by "Big Play" Slay should continue to lead the league in takeaways after this one. Sure, dominant DT Jordan Davis is out, but Marlon Tuipolotu is pretty good and would start on 20 of 32 teams in the league. On the other hand, Eagles' offense is a well oiled machine. The Texans' secondary is one of the best in the league but Eagles also have a very effective run game (150 YPG) and that spells trouble for Houston. I don't like laying big numbers but will in this instance. |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan +6 v. Northern Illinois | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Central Michigan/Northern Illinois 7:00: Chippewas 7-1 ATS in the last 8 in this series, 4-0 ATS at DeKalb, we'll grab the dog which is 7-1 ATS in this series. Central Michigan looking to avenge last year's 38-39 loss at Mt. Pleasant, should be on their game tonight. Right now the status of CM star running back - Lew Nichols III is questionable. He's a big time back that led the nation in yards from scrimmage last year, he is an NFL prospect and loves the prime-time stage and I believe he'll suit up tonight. CM in desperate need of a run game to help out QB Daniel Richardson. Richardson is a solid QB (13 TD/4 TD) but not as mobile as versatile QB Bauer who is a good changeup when the offense stalls. NIU is yielding defensively and allow a generous 33 PPG. Their weakness is the secondary that is torched for 268 YPG. CMU defense not great but better than their counterpart. CMU can bring pressure. CM defense has recorded 24 sacks (15th in nation) with playmaker Incoom recording 7. What has been hurting CM is their turnovers. NIU does not have the most opportunistic defense and should allow the Chippewas' offense to establish rhythm, especially if Nichols goes. Coach Mcelwain has a solid late season record and the Chippewas are overdue to get it rolling tonight. Take CM |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
Bengals/Browns 8:15: Trendy pick is the red-hot Bengals off 5 straight covers (4-1 SU). We'll buck the favorite and grab the home dog here. Browns off 4 straight losses and desperately need a win to get on track. We'll look for them to play with urgency here. The disturbing trend for the #3 rush team in the NFL is that they've been beaten in the rush stats for those four straight losses. That's highly uncharacteristic of Cleveland and they'll need to rely more on Chubb and Hunt than the arm of QB Brissett. Not having G Wyatt (out) is a big loss; however, Browns should win the run stats tonight against a mediocre (17th) run-stop-unit of Cincinnati (allow 119 YPG). As for Cincinnati, losing Ja"Marr Chase is a huge loss for Joe Burrow. Although he does have Higgins and Boyd to pick up some of the slack, and C Ward (concussion) is out, the ground game lags (30th) as Joe Mixon cannot get loose this season. And the Bengals' offensive line still is not protecting him well. He was sacked 3X and hurried a lot last week vs the light sacking defense of Atlanta. Cleveland can bring the rush with Garrett, Clowney and company. Browns swept this series last year and Stefanski is 4-0 SU vs the Bengals. Browns overdue to turn in a good performance and it should come here. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
49ers/Rams 4:25: 49ers are 7-0 SU vs the Rams during the regular season but the eighth won't be a charm. 49ers off two straight losses you would think be ready to get it rolling like they did last season after four straight losses, but injuries to key personnel will make it tough here. Major playmaker Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out and key blocking component FB Kyle Juszcyk (finger). And defensively, SF will continue to miss DT Armstead, and solid run-stopper WLB Greenlaw (calf) won't play. Meanwhile, LA Rams had a bye week to heal up and find a way to finally beat the 49ers. This is a pretty good spot for them to get er done; after all, Rams are 11-4-1 ATS off a bye week, and 9-1 ATS with rest vs an opponent with winning percentage less than .666. Stafford will have an extra target with speedy target Van Jefferson (off IR) to stretch the field. Moreover, having starting C Brian Allen back will help stabilize an offensive line that's been in a state of flux for most of the season. Dog 7-1 ATS in this series and take the point with the home team. |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
Patriots/Jets 1:00: Based on what the Jets have been doing and NE on a short week (off MNF), Jets seem to be the call getting points at home. But a second glance gives the edge to NE. Jets' running back Breece Hall (ACL), who went down last week at Denver, is a big loss for the Jets. Patriots are coming off a disturbing loss at home to Chicago; a game in which their defense was not prepared for Justin Fields' QB Power. Today, Patriots should be well locked in vs their AFC East rival; after all, they've won 12 straight vs the Jets and 15 of last 16, including a blowout sweep last season. Moreover, Belichick is a sweet 13-3 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, 10-0 ATS after allowing 33 or more points, and 12-2 ATS when they're less than .500 vs an opponent off SU/ATS non division wins. And throw in that they're 7-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, we'll roll with New England. |
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10-30-22 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Up until last week, Falcons were in every game with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark. Then they faced a geared-up Bengals team with Joe Burrow in top form. Today, they face a Panthers team that's coming off a whipping of a rapidly declining TB team. P.J. Walker is a good backup QB but is no Joe Burrow and doesn't have the vertical game to stretch the Falcons' secondary. Falcons' offense, on the other hand, can move the football. Arthur Smith's ground attack behind Mariota and RB Tyler Allgeier should put a dent in the Panthers' defense. Falcons receiving weapons London and Pitts overdue to have a big game. Falcons covered 5 of the last 7 in this series in Atlanta and we'll grab them here. Falcons the call. |
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10-30-22 | Broncos v. Jaguars UNDER 40.5 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show | |
10-29-22 | Pittsburgh +3 v. North Carolina | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/North Carolina 8:00: Mack Brown underachieved with his 2021 team after pre-season polls had them at #10. This year, UNC sits at 6-1 SU but has one of the worst defenses in the NCAA including 109th vs the run. Fortunately, he has a great QB in versatile QB Drake Maye that makes plays. But Brown continues to burn money for bettors as a favorite at 3-8 ATS last 11. Sure, UNC is coming off a bye, but history suggests trouble as UNC is 0-6 ATS in last 6 with rest. Pittsburgh is coming off a loss at Louisville, but Narduzzi is a dangerous 6-0 ATS following a defeat. And Narduzzi loves to pound the rock and with much success this year with RB Abanikanda (959 rush yards). Pitt also has a quality QB in Slovis who can torch a secondary that's given up 290 YPG. Pittsburgh the call. |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Oklahoma/Iowa State Noon: Both teams coming off bye weeks but Iowa State a bit healthier. Sooners S Bowman still on the mend. Iowa State has dropped four straight conference games yet competitive (by a combined 14 points). The Cyclones are looking to avenge last season's 28-21 loss at Norman. Cyclones' HC Matt Campbell has a deeply rooted staff including a terrific DC in Jon Heacock. Cyclones have a Top 10 defense in not only yards allowed but points allowed (15.1 PPG). They play the pass well and should be able to contain Sooners' QB Gabriel. On the other hand, Sooners' defense has been atrocious - allowing 31 PPG (103rd nationally) with a poor run stop unit allowing 207 YPG. Cyclones have good weapons offensively including NFL bound Xavier Hutchinson (758 yards). And QB Hunter Dekkers is gradually living up to his potential coming out of high school as one of the most prolific passers in Iowa HS football history. He'll have RB Brock to help alleviate some pressure. Matt Campbell a dangerous conference dog at 25-8 ATS including 17-3 ATS when opponent is coming off a win. Iowa State should deliver. |
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10-29-22 | TCU v. West Virginia +7.5 | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
TCU/West Virginia Noon: We won't sleep on West Virginia in Morgantown where they're a different team than they are on the road. QB J.T. Daniels didn't have a good game last week (3 INTs) but he should be locked in at home today. He's got some good receiving weaponry including Bryce Ford-Wheaton and a decent offensive line that needs to open holes in the running game without Mathis Jr. We'll look for them to get it done vs Sonny Dykes' TCU Horned Frogs that have a tendency to get down early. They've made dramatic comebacks to go undefeated but could be shocked here in Morgantown; after all, WV has covered 4 straight in this series at home. And let's not forget that HC Neal Brown is a sweet 11-2 ATS in games off a loss of 14+. West Virginia the call. |
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10-29-22 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse -1 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/Syracuse Noon: Syracuse has made a dramatic turnaround from a season ago. Last year, they had young talent but couldn't finish games. This season, lots of those players are back and coached up under HC Babers and staff. They're 6-1 and could be undefeated had it not been for 10 penalties and a late interception last week at Clemson. They're 3 of 11 in 3rd downs didn't help matters either. But Syracuse remains hungry and should do well back home vs an Irish team that hasn't played that tough of a schedule, of course since September 3rd at Ohio State. Offensive production is mediocre for the Irish despite a respectable run game. QB Drew Pyne will not strike fear in Syracuse' Top 10 defense that allows 15.1 PPG. On the other hand, Syracuse should go a lot more often to their star running back - Sean Tucker this week; last week, he had just three carries and Babers admitted he needed to run him more. QB Shrader has been solid most of the season and he has a solid favorite target in Gadsden II. We'll look for the new and improved Orangemen to deliver over the upstart Irish today. |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina +3.5 v. BYU | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
East Carolina/BYU 8:00: Two teams going in the opposite direction. BYU defense in a state of flux. After giving up tons of yardage, BYU HC Sitake was furious watching his now 106th ranked defense giving up excessive yards at Liberty last week; consequently, he took over the DC duties while demoting his DC Tuiaki to taking over the defensive line. Sitake will continue to call the defense this week and that spells trouble. East Carolina heated up with an OT win over Memphis and a very impressive win over UCF. QB Ahlers was an impressive 30 of 36 for 311 yards and a TD while RB Mitchell grinded out 100+ yards on the ground. And UCF sports a Top 20 defense! On the other hand, EC defense had trouble defending the pass up until facing UCF where they shut the high-powered Knights to 13 points. Pirates' HC Mike Houston doing a solid job as his men are consistently getting better as the season progresses. BYU not. We'll grab the points on the road with the Pirates. |
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10-27-22 | Ravens -1 v. Bucs | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
Ravens/Bucs 8:15: TB struggling and the opportunity for a win would seem to come tonight; after all, going against Brady off two straight losses is like playing with fire; however, TB dealing with injuries to key personnel limits TB success. The strength of TB's defense under Bowles has been stopping the run, forcing third and long when they can bring pressure on the QB while locking down defenders in the secondary. Tonight, TB will be thin in the secondary without corners Murphy-Bunting (quad) and Carlton Davis III (hip); moreover, key playmaker S Winfield Jr. (concussion); consequently, they're vulnerable to explosive plays. Ravens' WR Duvernay, and TE Andrews, which the offense is run through, should be able to exploit that stronghold void. TB run defense, which was at the top of the NFL last season, is now in the lower half tier (17th). Lamar Jackson and company (5th rushing offense) will surely try to establish that run game tonight. On the other hand, TB run game - at the very bottom of the league (64.4 YPG), puts more pressure on Brady, his reshuffled front line, and limited receiving weapons. With the road team 5-0 ATS in this series, we'll grab the Ravens. |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
Bears/Patriots 8:15: Heavy action on the Patriots and I'm going where the action is going. Patriots off two impressive wins. Their offense is starting to gel for they've outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents. If Mac Jones (ankle) is good to go, that's fine; if not, Zappe has proved to be a dependable backup. Belichick is the master of attacking weaknesses in a team and Chicago has their share. Bears have not been good run-stoppers allowing a generous 163 YPG (31st) and 4.8 YPC (24th). Look for the Patriots to pound RBs Harris and Stevenson between the tackles to take pressure off Zappe or Jones. Inclement weather should dictate a ball control game. As for Chicago and their 30th ranked offense (yards and points), they do run the ball well (171 YPG - 2nd in NFL); consequently, Belichick will surely direct his defensive game plan around stopping Herbert and Montgomery. One dimensional teams rarely beat Belichick. And Chicago's Fields has been sacked 23X this season, that's once every five pass attempts. Judon and company will surely be licking chops with Chicago playing behind the sticks most of the game. Patriots a sweet 18-3 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. And they're a sweet 14-1 ATS off a non-division game vs a less than .500 opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Patriots the call. |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots UNDER 40.5 | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
Bears/Patriots 8:15: Both of these teams have been turnover laden this season (combined 21 turnovers between them). And defensively, they are both opportunistic with a combined 17. The sloppy and cold Foxborough should dictate a ball control offensive attack with few, if any, explosive plays. And Fields has Mooney as his only vertical threat. Surely, Belichick will see to it that he's locked down. Patriots an amazing 1-13 O/U as a non-conference favorite of more than 1 point. Bears 1-10 O/U vs non-conference opponent with line >40 points. "Under" the call. |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs -1 v. 49ers | 44-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
Chiefs/49ers 4:25: Both teams coming off a loss but look for KC to deliver here. 49ers' HC Shanahan a money burning 0-12 ATS at home off non-division vs an opponent off a SU loss. Sure, 49ers getting a bit healthier with impact players DE Bosa, LT Trent Williams, CB Ward, SS Hufanga all looking to play after missing time last week; moreover, new acquisition RB McCaffrey should see some snaps. However, Not all good for SF. They're thin at DT with Armstead and Kinlaw. Wouldn't be surprised if KC utilized versatile RB Edwards-Helaire in the running game more to open up the pass game more for Mahomes. With an open date next week, we'll look for KC to pull out all stops and deliver. |
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10-23-22 | Texans +7 v. Raiders | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
Texans/Raiders 4:05: Both teams coming off a bye. Texans went into their bye feeling pretty good after knocking off Jacksonville. Las Vegas went into theirs following a heartbreaking loss to KC. Raiders are 0-5 ATS following a bye week. Raiders can hang with top opposition, as exhibited in all their games. They do, however, have finishing games as demonstrated vs the Chargers, Titans, Cardinals, and Chiefs. Moreover, they're 0-4 ATS vs teams under .500. And their coach - McDaniels fits right in for he went 0-4 ATS with Denver as a less than .500 team taking on a less than .500 team. Houston is a team that shows ugly stats at the bottom of the league in offensive production and giving up yards defensively; however, a closer look reveals a strong defensive secondary that's given QBs fits getting in the end zone. Texans have given up just 19.8 PPG and are opportunistic creating turnovers (8). We'll look for Houston to do what they do best - stick around and make it interesting. Take the TD |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 37 | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
Jets/Broncos 4:05: Both teams bring top tier defenses to the field that play hard and create turnovers. It just so happens that the Jets' offense is turnover prone (9) and the Broncos' offense is stuck in neutral (32nd in scoring points). QB Brett Rypien will start in place of the injured Russell Wilson; consequently, Saleh and the Jets are salivating. Jets are 1-8 O/U off a SU win of 14+, and they're 5-11 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. Broncos on a 1-5 O/U run and 3-7 O/U off a SU loss. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Denver including the last 3. "Under" the call. |
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10-23-22 | Falcons +6.5 v. Bengals | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Falcons/Bengals 1:00: Falcons are a covering machine (6-0 ATS) and I'm staying on them here. They've found ways to win on special teams, creating turnovers and running the football. The #3 rushing team in the NFL should find more room to run against a sluggish run-stop-unit of Cincinnati which is most likely without their top run-stopper MLB Logan Wilson (shoulder). And their defensive interior is thin with Josh Tupou out. Arthur Smith has used veteran journeyman - Marcus Mariota (NFC Offensive Player of the Week) well as his wheels look healthy again. And never mind that Patterson is on the IR, Tyler Allgeier, who was an absolute beast at BYU, is picking up the run slack duty very well. With London and TE Pitts healthy, Falcons once again are dangerous. Cincinnati offense having difficulty unleashing their run game with Mixon (3.3 YPC) and 20th in NFL; consequently, Burrow is a sitting duck most of the game until his big game heroics come into play late. The song remains the same today. Take Atlanta to cover. |
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10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +6 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas/Oklahoma State 3:30: Oklahoma State under Gundy stays in football games. They're a sweet 13-1 ATS as a dog of less than 12 points. Offensively, they can trade points with any team in the nation. And they probably will have to here. Cowboys' defense is not what it was when Jim Knowles (now at Ohio State) led them last year. Former Vandy HC Derek Mason not getting it done. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have the horses, can sack the QB (nearly 3 per game), and can create turnovers. Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 in this series, including last year's 32-24 win in Texas. We're counting on Spencer Sanders (shoulder) to go. Again, we'll look for Okie State to stay in this one and cover. |
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10-22-22 | Purdue +2 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Purdue/Wisconsin 3:30: Wisconsin has amazingly gone 15-0 SU in this series. Purdue has competed well in Madison though at 3-0 ATS under Brohm. Today, the Boilermakers should notch their 5th straight win and defeat the Badgers to become bowl eligible. They're catching the Badgers off a double-OT defeat at Michigan State. They're 1-1 SU/ATS since DC Leonhard took over for fired Paul Chryst. Both teams are similar in defensive philosophy, highly opportunistic, and good run stoppers; however, where the Badgers lack is the passing game under Mertz. He's doing well, but run game isn't what it was in years past with RB Allen the leading rusher. As for Purdue, RB Mockobee emerged last week with a big game as another strong runner to give support to QB Aidan O'Connell - who's well-groomed under Brohm. Today, we'll look for the Boilermakers to finally break the losing streak vs Wisconsin. |
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10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan +2.5 v. Ball State | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Ball State 2:00: One thing is consistent under Eagles' HC Creighton. He's dangerous on the road when coming off a loss as his 22-5-1 ATS ledger suggests in that role. And that includes the road upset at Arizona State on September 17th! The Eagles are also 4-0 ATS at Muncie, IN. Moreover, they're 6-0 ATS before playing Toledo. On the other hand, Ball State, under current coach Mike Neu, is a money burning 2-9 SU/1-10 ATS when coming off a win and facing a losing team. They managed to narrowly beat lightweight Connecticut at home as a 9.5-point favorite. Eastern Michigan is eyeing revenge from last year's beating, and we'll grab them here! |
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10-22-22 | Cincinnati -3 v. SMU | 29-27 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/SMU Noon: Bearcats crushed Sonny Dykes led SMU last season to the tune of 48-14 in Cincinnati. QB Mordecai was handcuffed throwing for a measly 66 yards. Today, despite losing some top secondary personnel to the NFL in the draft, the Bearcats bring another Top 20 defense to Dallas, Texas. And this year's bunch gets after the QB - averaging nearly 4 sacks per game. Sure, Mordecai is improved and playing well this year under first year HC Lashlee, but this is the best defense he has faced. On the other hand, Bearcats reloaded offensively with skill personnel including QB Ben Bryant who has gotten better as the season progressed. He has a solid run game to lean on with 500 yard rusher - McClelland getting the bulk of the carries; consequently, the Bearcats should pound the rock repeatedly against an SMU run-stop-unit that allows 212 YPG! Bearcats 4-1 ATS in this series and they're well rested coming off a bye. Cincinnati the call. |
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10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
UAB/Western Kentucky 8:00: Blazers have one of the most underrated coaches in NCAA Football in Bill Clark. He resurrected a football program that was shut down for two seasons in 2015-16 and took them bowling every year since 2017. Once again, the Clark leads another solid Blazers' team. And they're a sweet 10-2 ATS as a conference dog. They have a Top 20 defense that plays the pass well (15th nationally), and an offense that hitches the wagon onto RB DeWayne McBride, part of the 8th best run game in the nation. Western Kentucky no joke and QB Austin Reed, who transferred in from West Florida to take over for record setting Zappe, can sling it. But the Hilltoppers a bit too reliant on their pass game. We'll look for the more methodical Blazers to deliver on the road where they're 6-1 ATS vs teams with winning home records. UAB the call. |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | 34-42 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Saints/Cardinals 8:15: Cardinals can't be trusted as a favorite under Kingsbury (8-15) nor on Thursday Night (0-4 ATS). Their offensive line is in tatters with C Hudson (knee) and LG Pugh (ACL) out. Sure, DeAndre Hopkins is back off the suspended list and they just acquired Robbie Anderson from Carolina on Monday. I don't see the chemistry developing this soon with an offense that's already struggling. New Orleans is surely not a comfortable selection either, but they are 13-2 ATS on the road off SU/ATS loss. Saints' offense had problems with turnovers but did clean it up this past Sunday. Winston most likely back at the helm and should have Olave (cleared to play) back in action. Saints have a decent run game (#7) utilizing Hill and Kamara. Saints are actually averaging a full yard per play better than Arizona. We'll give the edge to New Orleans. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | 16-9 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Virginia/Georgia Tech 7:30: Georgia Tech established winning momentum after the firing of Geoff Collins. Virgina struggling under first year HC Elliot. Brent Key took over October 1st and the Yellow Jackets rolled with wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. Their defense is creating turnovers, which bodes well for them against the turnover laden Cavaliers (8). And the Virginia offense can't get their run game going with an inexperienced offensive line this season, putting too much pressure on QB Armstrong. On the other hand, like GT versatile QB Sims who makes plays and has a pretty good surrounding cast that can run the football and hold on to the ball. Rambling Wreck a sweet 7-0 ATS off back-to-back wins, and they're feeling good coming out of their bye-week at home. Virginia, however, 0-3 ATS on the road and not feeling so good off bye-week as a traveler. Tech looking to avenge last year's 40-48 loss at Virginia. We'll lay a FG with them here. |
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10-19-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State -9.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
Georgia State/Appalachian State 7:30: Tale of two teams going in opposite directions. Georgia State coming off two impressive wins over Army and Georgia Southern. Appalachian State lost 2 of its last 3 including major upset loss to lightweight Texas State. But this is not a good matchup for the Panthers. They've lost 3 of the last 4 in this series, including 45-16 blowout loss last year at home. Mountaineers made the mistake of chucking the ball record times at Texas State. Tonight, they'll be able to establish a ground game vs a run stop unit allowing 180 YPG. If Mountaineers' leading rusher Cameron Peoples (illness) can't go, Mounties have a deep backfield with Harrington, Noel and Marshall. A successful run game should open up the pass game for accurate QB Chase Brice (18/3 TD/INT). On the other side of the ball, Appalachian State brings a solid unit to the field including a run stop unit that allows a measly 2.6 YPC vs Sun Belt teams. Georgia State's game is running the football, and Appalachian State is one of the best run stop units in the Sun Belt Conference. When the Panthers are forced to pass, they're not at their best. Appalachian State 6-1 ATS off a double-digit SU loss and 6-1 ATS with extended rest. Mountaineers get it back together tonight. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
Broncos/Chargers 8:15: Broncos' offense overdue to get untracked. Russell Wilson has been dragged in the mud by the media and fans, and Wilson doesn't take that lightly. He'll eventually get it together and it should come tonight in prime time when he's at his best. And against a defense that is in the bottom tier (31st) in points allowed. Moreover, with Bosa on the IR, Wilson should have a bit more time to operate. On the other hand, Broncos' 3rd ranked defense keeping them in games to date. Herbert's top receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring) still limited in practice as of now. Broncos 12-4 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. Chargers' HC Staley a poor 2-5 ATS off a SU non division win. Take the Broncos. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys +6.5 v. Eagles | 17-26 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Eagles 8:20: Last season, Cowboys swept this series easily. Prescott had some strong games vs Eagles, including 51-26 blowout at Philly in January. Cooper Rush (4-0 as the starter this season) will get the nod. And he should. He's been a solid game manager, as the Cowboys are winning with a respectable ground game, limited mistakes, and great defense. That should be the recipe here. Eagles have had their moments of shaky run stopping, as exhibited vs Detroit when Swift ran all over them. Eagles' offense a legit #1 with explosive skill personnel surrounding QB Hurts. However, this is the best defense the Eagles have faced this season. Hurts is 1-2 SU vs Dallas with 5 turnovers and 3 TD passes. Cowboys 10-1 ATS road run, 6-0 ATS in October, 7-3 ATS in Philadelphia, makes them a dangerous dog. Dallas the call. |
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10-16-22 | Bills -2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Bills/Chiefs 4:25: Chiefs inability to fortify their secondary, could be their downfall here. Chiefs are in the bottom tier of the NFL in defending the pass - allowing a generous 255.6 YPG. KC no longer equipped with playmaker Tyrann Mathieu (Saints) and #1 draft pick Trent McDuffie on IR, could be in for a long night here. Bills' QB Josh Allen leads the NFL in yards with 1651, should be able to pick apart the secondary. DC Spagnuolo threw everything but the kitchen sink at Josh Allen in the AFC Division round last season, and Allen was unstoppable. It was the breakout game for Gabe Davis. This week, Spagnuolo had to call up secondary reserves for his thinning secondary. And Buffalo offensive line has done a decent job opening holes for the ground game as well as protecting Allen. Don't see KC stopping the #1 offense in the NFL today. Defensively, Bills sport the #2 defense and have gotten healthy over the last few weeks, including adding additional depth to the defensive line as Ed Oliver is good to go. Road team 9-4 ATS in this series. Bills have covered 6 of last 8 in KC. And with the dramatic win over Las Vegas last Monday, we'll take the team that had an extra day of rest/prep. Take Buffalo. |
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10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams -11 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 146 h 55 m | Show | |
Panthers/Rams 4:05: Rams usually do well in this role. LA 5-0 ATS at home off SU favorite loss, and they're 13-3 ATS in October as a favorite vs an opponent off double-digit SU loss; moreover, 8-1 ATS off an October SU loss vs less than .500 opponent off SU/ATS loss. Carolina in a breakdown mode after Mayfield (ankle) goes down, Rhule and DC Snow out, while assistant Wilks takes over. Yes, the Wilks that coached the Cardinals for one disastrous season of 3-13. He again has big plans but should see little results here. Despite all the problems with the Rams' offensive line shuffling, Cam Akers situation, and suspect defense, they should roll. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals -1 v. Saints | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 85 h 56 m | Show | |
Bengals/Saints 1:00: Gimmick offenses like the Wildcat might work against the pathetic defense of Seattle, but Bengals will be prepared. Former Bengals' QB Dalton will get the nod and I'm not buying the revenge on former team. Dalton has limited offensive arsenal without Landry, Thomas and Olave. Turnover laden Saints' offense (13) should find a way to lose. We'll look for Cincinnati to bounce back off their loss last week. They're 7-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS in this series. Saints coming off win over Seattle but Dennis Allen a pitiful 0-5 ATS off a SU win. Bengals the call. |
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10-15-22 | Wisconsin -7 v. Michigan State | 28-34 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Michigan State 4:00: We'll lay a TD with the much better Badgers football team. Despite the loss of HC Chryst last week, the Badgers blasted NW in in Evanston. QB Mertz came alive with a big game. He should be equally impressive here against a Michigan State secondary that gives up a generous 292 YPG (122nd nationally). And the Spartans have forced just 1 turnover all season. Wisconsin offense is productive and should roll. On the other hand, the tough Badgers' defense, which has forced 10 turnovers this season, should be able to stall out a Spartans' offense stuck in neutral. Without Walker III (Seahawks), the sputtering Spartans' run game produced just 107 YPG. Last time these teams met (2019), Badgers throttled the Spartans 38-0. That was under Dantonio. Tucker has taken the Spartans a few notches backwards this year. Wisconsin the call. |
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10-15-22 | NC State +3 v. Syracuse | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
NC State/Syracuse 3:30: NC State won this game handily last season 41-17. QB Leary torched the Syracuse defense for 303 yards and 2 TDs. Syracuse had success on the ground but QB Schrader couldn't get it going through the air going 8 out of 20 for just 63 yards, an INT and sacked 5X. NC State brings virtually the same defense back to the field. Offensively, Leary (shoulder) is questionable but backup Chambers, who showed his mettle last week in the comeback win vs Florida State, is definitely a viable option. OC Tim Beck has the offense running smooth. The jury is still out on Syracuse as a serious contender in the ACC. NC State the call. |
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10-15-22 | Kansas +9 v. Oklahoma | 42-52 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 4 m | Show | |
Kansas/Oklahoma Noon: Kansas gave Oklahoma a run for the money last season in a 35-23 loss but cover as a 38.5 point dog. Those heavy dog daze are over for Kansas under HC Leipold, who has turned the Jayhawks program around in a year and a half. I do plan on Sooners' QB Gabriel is good to go; at the same time, Kansas' QB Jalon Daniels (shoulder) is likely out but his backup Jason Bean did a great job coming in last week to keep it competitive. Oklahoma 114th ranked defense getting gashed on the ground to the tune of 214.5 YPG. Kansas' run game produces 214 YPG. With a respectable defense, a newfound confidence, we'll look for the vengeful Jayhawks to cover again. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +15.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Iowa State/Texas Noon: Texas looking like world beaters after blasting Oklahoma last week. But the Longhorns are a money burning 2-12 ATS as a favorite of less than 27 points off a double-digit ATS win vs .500 or less opponent. Meanwhile, Iowa State lost another close one last week as Kansas State won 10-9. It was the Cyclones third straight loss - all by a combined 11 points. Iowa State offense nothing like it was last year when the Cyclones blasted Texas 30-7. Now the Cyclones rely on their Top 10 defense to keep them in games. Iowa State does have a solid future QB in Dekkers and he has a few weapons to go to in Hutchinson and RB Brock. Iowa State a sweet 24-8 ATS as a conference dog including 16-3 ATS vs foes off a win. We'll take the points. |
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10-14-22 | Navy +12.5 v. SMU | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Navy/SMU 7:30: Navy is starting to get it rolling on a 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS run. Interior offensive line is opening holes for FB Fofana; consequently, the Midshipmen vaulted to 12th in the nation running the football to the tune of 232 YPG. SMU' defense had less than a week to prep for the difficult triple option attack. The Mustangs' defense already allow a generous 180 YPG (106th nationally). SMU maintained its pass-oriented offense under new head coach Lashlee. They may go to the freshman Stone who gave them a spark last week replacing veteran Mordecai; however, Mustangs sport a 2-3 SU record at this point and struggling. Navy defense good run stoppers but vulnerable against the pass so we know where SMU will attack them. Look for Navy to do what they do best - run the rock and eat clock. The Midshipmen look to avenge last year's 31-24 loss but cover (+13'). Navy is better this year and SMU down a notch. SMU a money burning 0-7 ATS as a conference home favorite off back-to-back SU losses vs an opponent with revenge. Navy, however, is 16-0 ATS as a dog off a SU win vs a less than .500 opponent. Grab the points with Navy who are 7-2 ATS in this series. |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Commanders/Bears 8:15: A dud for Thursday night but leaning on Commanders. Chicago has not covered at home vs Washington in 9 attempts. These teams last met in 2019 with Chicago getting the best of Washington 31-15 on MNF. Now, different coaches, different QBs and personnel. Washington hasn't won since Week 1 at home vs Jacksonville. They played well enough to win last week despite the 3 fumbles and last second interception by Wentz. Wentz does have more electric weapons to go to, including McLaurin, Samuel, and emerging Dyami Brown (groin). Chicago's Fields reliant on Mooney while few others have stepped up. Both QBs have been sacked repeatedly but Washington brings a bit more sacking prowess at nearly 3 sacks per game. Bears' defense has been vulnerable against the run allowing 170 YPG. If Washington can establish the run game with RB Gibson, it would sure take some of the pressure off interception and sack prone Wentz to establish some rhythm in the pass game. We'll count on that. Chicago 0-2 as a home favorite on Thursday Nights; moreover, they're 1-7 ATS on Thursday night vs an opponent off a SU loss. Road team 8-2 ATS in this series. Washington has covered nine straight in Chicago. We'll tread lightly with the Commanders. |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida -23 | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Temple/Central Florida 7:00: Both teams are defensively sound, but the contrasting offensive production should be difference maker here. Temple's defense keeps them in games but their horrific offensive production (bottom tier of NCAA in points scored, total yards, 3rd down conversions) handcuffs them. UCF sports a solid defense and is the #1 defense in the red zone. On the flip end, Malzahn's offense produces a healthy 35.6 PPG. UCF thrashed Temple 49-7 in Philadelphia last year. Hard to stake a case for revenge when the Owls haven't won or covered a road game in their last 6 attempts. Knights the call. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Raiders/Chiefs 8:15: Raiders got their first win last week and established some confidence heading into this week with double revenge from last year's combined score thrashing of 89-23! KC is coming off an emotional upset win at Tampa Bay. More challenging for KC to get up for this one. Raiders' Josh McDaniels 4-1 as a less than .500 opponent vs .500 or greater opponent. And the Raiders are a sweet 7-1 ATS on the road vs a division opponent off a double-digit SU win. Furthermore, they're 6-0 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points with revenge vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Raiders get back Hunter Renfrow (concussion) this week to add to the receiving arsenal. Look for Carr and company to be competitive here. Raiders the call. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Bengals/Ravens 8:20: The well-rested Bengals should do well here; after all, last season, Burrow carved up the Baltimore's secondary to the tune of 941 yards, 7 TDs in 2 wins! Back in the day, that would be a good season for a QB. Since then, Harbaugh fired DC Martindale at season end and went in-house with secondary coach Mike McDonald as the DC. The Ravens are now 32nd (last) in the NFL in pass yards allowed (315 YPG). Burrow and company surely licking their chops. Bengals 4-1 ATS at Baltimore, and they're 8-1 ATS vs a division opponent with revenge. Bengals are respectable defensively and rank 4th against the rush and a solid eighth in points allowed (17'). Ravens not a good team in October at 11-27-2 and just 4-12 in Week 5. We'll take the points and the Bengals. |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 60 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Rams 4:25: Cowboys (-3) were my Top Play last week and they didn't disappoint. I'm going back on them this week as they visit the struggling Rams on a short week. Dallas has the most menacing pass rush in the league with 15 sacks and that doesn't bode well for the reshuffled line of the Rams. There's no quick fix for blitz pick up in a reshuffled offensive front. Stafford has already been sacked 16X and Kupp and Higbee are his viable options; however, Cowboys' DC Quinn doing a bang-up job with his secondary and I like the Cowboys' chances of limiting explosive plays here. Offensively, QB Cooper Rush has been a great game manager and his offensive line has held up well. Moreover, Cee Dee Lamb (groin) is good to go and Gallup showed that he's back last week with a good game. Cowboys a sweet 10-1 ATS off SU/ATS win vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Cowboys the call. |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Saints | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Saints 1:00: Last week, I was all over the Seahawks (+4) and they delivered. I'm back on them here. Geno Smith controls the highest completion % in the NFL at 77%. The run game is going well with Penny and the team is brimming with confidence. Moving the football against New Orleans will surely be more challenging than it was last week but like our chances. On the defensive side, Seahawks' defense not good. The players and scheme are fine, just a lack of execution. Defensive minded HC Carroll will figure it out; after all, New Orleans is a giveaway machine with 11 turnovers. New Orleans coach Dennis Allen 0-3 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. Last year, Saints won SU at Seattle 13-10 as 5 point road chalk. Carroll is eyeing revenge and we'll take 5' with the Seahawks here. |
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10-09-22 | Chargers v. Browns +2 | 30-28 | Push | 0 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Chargers/Browns 1:00: This game was a barn burner last year in which a ridiculous late penalty on the Browns cost them the game 42-47. Revenge minded Browns now have the Chargers on their turf and I'm jumping on the home team. Browns daunting run game (#2 in NFL) with Nick Chubb (5.7 ypc) and Kareem Hunt should be a difficult task for the Chargers on this field. And steady QB Brissett won't have to worry about Joey Bosa (groin -out) coming off the edge. Chargers' defense allowing a generous 27 PPG. On the other hand, Browns' defense gets Myles Garrett back today to harass QB Justin Herbert who is dealing with rib cartilage injury. Dog in this series is 7-1 ATS while the Browns have covered 6 of the last 8 in this series. Brandon Staley just 1-5 ATS off SU non-division win. Browns the call. |
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10-08-22 | Wyoming -3 v. New Mexico | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
10-08-22 | Duke -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech/Duke 4:00: Georgia Tech coming off an emotional win over then #25 ranked Pittsburgh. Last week, Geoff Collins was let go and interim coach Brent Key took over to guide the Yellow Jackets to victory. The Panthers were run roughshod on by the Engineers to the tune of 232 yards on 44 attempts. Pittsburgh's Narduzzi has been known to play down to opponents and his boys did. Panthers had 12 penalties for 75 yards. Today, look for a well-disciplined Duke team to be a different story. They're +9 on the season in turnover margin, play solid run defense and can run the ball offensively. QB Riley Leonard manages the game well (7 TD/2 INT). And Duke is stingy allowing points: 19 PPG (28th nationally). Defensive minded Duke HC Elko should orchestrate an effective game plan. Blue Devils are looking to avenge last year's close defeat. Duke is 6-1 ATS in this series and 3-1 ATS at Atlanta. Duke the call. |
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10-08-22 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +10.5 | Top | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Wisconsin/Northwestern 3:30: Two struggling Big Ten programs. Wisconsin, off their latest loss to Illinois last week to fall to 2-3 on the season, fired HC Paul Chryst. DC Leonhard takes over HC duties. Meanwhile, Northwestern fell to Penn State in a rain-soaked mess at Happy Valley. The Wildcats dropped to 1-4 with only win coming vs Nebraska in Week O in Dublin, Ireland. That was a Top Play then, and I'm back on Fitgerald as a Top Play here. Wildcats looking to avenge last year's 35-7 whitewashing in Wisconsin. Wisconsin doesn't have the run game this year that they've had in recent years. Last week, Illinois held them to 2 rush yards on 24 carries! And defensively, have slid this year as well (50th in scoring defense). Northwestern has been marred by turnovers (9) and need to clean it up quick. Weather calls for sunshine in Evanston with a bit of wind. We'll look for QB Hilinski to get it together this week. Northwestern has covered 9 of the last 10 at home vs Wisconsin; moreover, Fitzgerald is an amazing 10-1 ATS as a dog with revenge vs .500 or fewer opponent. Northwestern the call. |
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10-08-22 | Georgia Southern +2.5 v. Georgia State | 33-41 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern/Georgia State 2:00: The Eagles are Clay Helton's team now and he's turning them into a replica of his old USC teams; after all, their offense is cooking (500 yards per game) but their ability to stop the run defensively leaves much to be desired - 205 YPG allowed. Today, they battle run oriented Georgia State which is coming off a huge win at Army. The good news for Georgia Southern is that the Panthers allow nearly 34 PPG. Some of these numbers are skewed for these Sun Belt teams have taken on some solid competition - especially the Panthers. But I like the Eagles offensive line that leads the nation in allowing the fewest tackles for loss and second in the nation in sacks allowed. Give QB Van Trease (1574 pass yards) time and he'll burn a secondary. Throw in the run game of Jalen White (450 yards rush) and I believe the Eagles have more firepower to outlast the Panthers late. Georgia Southern the call. |
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10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
TCU/Kansas Noon: Kansas HC Leipold turned Buffalo into a big winner in the MAC and he's turning around a moribund Kansas program, which hasn't had a winning season since 2009, in just two years. The undefeated Jayhawks at 5-0 haven't fought lightweights either. They've beaten West Virginia at Morgantown, Houston at Houston, and took care of Duke and Iowa State. They almost upset TCU last year as a 21-point dog at Fort Worth. Today, like their chances for revenge at home. Jayhawks' QB Daniels doing a solid job of managing the offense. He struggled last week but fortunately the Jayhawks' run game with Devin Neal was able to gain some ground. And although Kansas got out-statted by Iowa State, they found a way to win by taking away the Cyclones ground game (30 carries for 26 yards). TCU will be a tough challenge, but we'll take the points. TCU just 1-15 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points when coming off a SU underdog win. Jayhawks the call. |
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10-07-22 | Houston v. Memphis OVER 57 | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
Houston/Memphis 7:30: Both of these teams showing signs of regression. For Memphis, they've gradually leveled off in the win column since Mike Norvell left after the 2019 season. Silverfield stepped in the defense went south along with the wins. Houston, which was a pre-season pick to win the American Athletic, has played in 3 straight OT games, losing two. Penalties and sloppy plays late have been led to major sideline blowups by HC Holgorsen. Fortunately for both teams, their offenses are productive. Defensively, however, has been ugly. Memphis allows 288 ypg through the air, which is 133rd in the nation. Last year, Houston ran all over them controlling the clock by +9 minutes. Sure, Temple was held to 3 points last week; however, Owls are 122nd in offensive production and average a paltry 15 PPG this season. As for Houston, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They allow a whopping 34 PPG (117th nationally). Memphis QB Henigan can sling it and should have a big day. Tigers are 4-1 O/U in last 5 home games. This series is 4-1 O/U in its last 5. "Over" the call. |
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10-07-22 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +3 | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Rutgers 7:00: Nebraska coming off win at home vs Indiana; however, can't trust them on the road as a favorite with interim coach. Schiano had a few years to build back Rutgers to where it was in his first term. He's done a pretty good job, establishing a solid defense (18th total yards). Offensively, Scarlet Knights are struggling (105th). However, their run game is solid and they don't turn the ball over much (2). QB Evan Simon isn't going to light up the scoreboard but I believe the Knights can win the field position battle against a Nebraska defense that allows 469 YPG, and ranked 119th vs the run. Knights are 7-2 ATS after accumulating 275 yards or less. Nebraska 2-8 ATS in October, 3-8 ATS off SU win. In 2020, Rutgers hung around with the Cornhuskers before losing by a TD. We'll look for them to deliver tonight. |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
Colts/Broncos 8:15: On the surface, Broncos the call; after all, they're at home on Thursday Night and Colts are minus two key players in MLB Leonard (nose/concussion) and RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle). However, Denver has their share of impact player injuries too. Top Rusher one top check down receiver for Wilson- Javonte Williams (IR) is out and WLB Randy Gregory (IR) won't be around pressing QB Matt Ryan. Denver will go with Melvin Gordon III who's a solid RB but fumbles are becoming too frequent. And Russ Wilson not getting the protection he needs. Indy still has impact defensive players DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye who can get after the QB. Moreover, LB corps still solid with Okereke, Franklin and E.J. Speed and a decent secondary. Offensively, Ryan overdue to get it together. He's got some solid weapons in Pittman Jr., Parris Cambell and #2 draft choice Alec Pierce; moreover, versatile RB Hines can pick up some of the slack for the Taylor void. At a coaching standpoint, Frank Reich has the significant edge. He's 8-2 SU/8-1 ATS coming off double-digit spread loss. Colts are 10-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss vs non-division opponent. They're also 3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to Denver, and 12-3 in Week 5. Moreover, they're 14-4-1 ATS on Thursdays. Denver a money burning 3-7 Week 5 and 1-6 in October. Take the Colts. |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Rams/49ers 8:15: SF came close to beating the Rams last year in the NFC Championship game and the 49ers can grab a means of revenge here on a grand Monday prime time stage where they're 19-9 ATS. Shanahan has virtually owned McVay in the regular season at 7-2 SU. Garoppolo sports a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark vs the Rams including the post-season. SF is one of the few teams that have the secondary strength and pass rush to rattle Stafford and limit Cooper Kupp. Bosa is healthy and Armstead (foot) is good to go. There is a concern about LT for the 49ers as All-Pro Trent Williams (ankle) is out. However, Colton Mckivitz is a capable backup. And the loss of Von Miller (Buffalo) is a relief. 49ers should regain some traction of their offense here; after all, Rams' defense 21st in the NFL vs the pass. Rams 0-4 in Week 4 while SF 5-1 ATS off a SU loss. 49ers the call. |
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10-02-22 | Seahawks +4 v. Lions | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Lions 1:00: Tale of two teams with contrasting health issues. Detroit will most likely be without two impact players: RB D'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Moreover, solid receiver DJ Chark will not play along with LG Jackson. Meanwhile, Seahawks are deep in the secondary, and have former #1 draft choice DE Collier off the IR and active. Most receivers are healthy and a deep backfield of Penny, Walker III and Dallas. QB Geno Smith, who sports a 77% completion percentage, should be able to let er rip a bit more to get some points on the board. Seahawks sport a 3-0 ATS mark in this series including the 51-29 route in Seattle last year. Detroit HC Campbell a good motivator and his guys love him, but game management questionable as he let another close game slip away last week. As for Seattle, Pete Carroll a sweet 12-2 ATS off back-to-back losses. Seahawks the call. |
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10-02-22 | Titans +4 v. Colts | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Titans/Colts 1:00: Road team in this series 6-1 ATS. We get good value with the Titans coming off a big win. They got Derrick Henry going for 143 rush yards vs LV and Tannehill was working the play action nice. We'll look for that winning formula here. So far, Burks has been a solid draft choice to replace departed A.J. Brown. Fortunately, Bud Dupree (hip) returns this week to add to that all important edge rush; after all, QB Matt Ryan has been sacked 4X a game this season. On the defensive end, Titans need to shore up the run defense vs the explosive Jonathon Taylor. Vrabel usually gets his guys up for division foes and has had success vs Indy, especially in Indianapolis at 4-1 ATS. Colts a troubling 1-8 ATS as a favorite of less than 11 points in the second of back-to-back home games vs a less than .500 opponent. We'll look for Tennessee to go to 5-0 ATS in October. |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Washington/Dallas 1:00: I don't see a falloff in production from the Cowboys, despite coming off a Monday game. Mccarthy a solid 5-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs a less than .500 opponent. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in October and 6-0 ATS vs less than .500 foes. They've dominated the NFC East to the tune of 21-7 ATS. Dec 26th of last year, the Cowboys destroyed Washington 56-14 in this stadium. Cooper Rush (3-0 SU/ATS as a starter) has been solid in his decision making and he's getting time from his offensive line. On the other hand, Wentz has already been sacked 6X. That's bad news as the Cowboys' pass rush has been brutal on QBs thus far (averaging 4.3 sacks per game). Parsons has been virtually unstoppable pressing and sacking QBs. And Washington's tattered offensive line has two linemen - Leno (shoulder) and Schweitzer (concussion) that most likely won't play. And not liking the Washington defense which has been unable to stop anybody this season. In October, Cowboys 9-2 ATS at home vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. Dallas the call. |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons OVER 47.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Browns/Falcons 1:00: These teams are a combined 6-0 O/U this season. We won't fear the higher than normal 'total' for this series and go "over". Falcons' defense most likely won't have an answer to stop the #1 rush offense in the NFL. And Atlanta's secondary leaves a lot to be desired; consequently, efficient pass Brissett should be able to guide the Browns' offense in the end zone often. The Falcons have given up a generous 27 PPG but they have 7 takeaways - which translate into points. On the other hand, Browns' defense missing key bookends - Garrett and Clowney. That's significant for giving Mariota a second more in the pocket to hook up with his array of weapons including Drake London, Patterson and Pitts. Browns' defense has been yielding - allowing 24 PPG. These teams are collectively 13-5 O/U in Week 4. "Over" it is! |
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10-02-22 | Jaguars +7 v. Eagles | 21-29 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Eagles 1:00: Eagles playing lights out ball with an explosive offense and suffocating defense. At the same time, Jaguars overachieving under HC Doug Pederson. We'll take the points with the Jags as Pederson visits his old stomping grounds in which he brought the city its only Super Bowl ring. Jaguars are running the ball effectively behind a much-improved line as James Robinson and Etienne are off to a good start. And Trevor Lawrence (Offensive Player of the Week) is playing with decisiveness locating receivers. On the other hand, Jaguars' opportunistic defense (8 takeaways) has the #1 run stop unit in the NFL allowing just 55 YPG. They'll put to test Jalen Hurts and company today. Eagles should run into trouble in this spot: They're 0-4 ATS as a .500 or greater team vs a greater than .500 opponent, 0-6 ATS at home vs non division opponent off a SU dog win, 3-9-1 ATS in Week 4, and 4-11-1 ATS off an ATS win. We'll take the points. |
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10-01-22 | West Virginia +9.5 v. Texas | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
West Virginia/Texas 7:30: I'm surprised the Mounties are getting these many points. In recent years, this series has been relatively close, and WV actually is 3-0 ATS in Austin. The Mounties played well on the road this season almost knocking off Pittsburg, destroyed Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. JT Daniels is poised in the pocket and has a serious run game (217.5 YPG) to lean on. Texas defense, however, having trouble stopping both the run and pass; consequently, that doesn't bode well laying 9' points! Texas got whipped 23-31 last year at West Virginia; however, they're a poor 1-6 ATS at home after allowing 35+ points vs an above .500 team. West Virginia the call. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan State v. Maryland -7.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Michigan State/Maryland 3:30: Maryland has lots of talented receivers and QB Tagoviola is as good as advertised. His backup (Edwards) is solid too. Last week, Maryland gave Michigan a run for the money at Ann Arbor - a tough task for any team. Meanwhile, Michigan State was blasted on their home field by Minnesota (my top play). Maryland looking to avenge last year's 21-40 beatdown at East Lansing. Spartans no longer have Kenneth Walker III running roughshod over defenders. Their run game is a dismal 95th in the nation. On the other hand, the Michigan State secondary remains in tatters and that's bad news against the explosive MD offense that passes for 301 YPG. Maryland 7-0 ATS w/ revenge after allowing 30+ points vs an opponent off SU loss. MD the call. |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma -5 v. TCU | 24-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/TCU Noon: Oklahoma stewing after dropping a 41-34 decision to K State. In that game, former Nebraska QB Martinez rushed for 148 yards on them. Defensive minded Sooners' HC Venables not happy and should make proper adjustments vs veteran TCU QB Max Duggan. He was sacked 5X last week vs SMU. TCU managed to sneak by 42-34. TCU padded their earlier season wins with lightweights Colorado and Tarleton State. Sooners, which sport the #7 offense in nation, should be able to roll through the suspect TCU defense. Horned Frogs secondary ranked 107th in nation and vulnerable to accurate QB Dillon Gabriel. Sooners 6-1 ATS in this series and 4-1 ATS at Fort Worth. Oklahoma the call. |
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10-01-22 | Kentucky +7 v. Ole Miss | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Kentucky/Ole Miss Noon: The last two games in this series were decided by 3 points or less. Ole Miss' secondary torched last week by backup quarterback. Rebels are 98th vs the pass allowing 207 YPG. This is the first year in, perhaps, the Stoops era, that Kentucky actually has a formidable pass game. Will Levis does a nice job running the offense passing for nearly 300 YPG. The run game, which is usually a staple of Stoops' offense gets a boost as Rodriguez Jr. (off suspension) is back! He led the team in rushing with 1379 yards last year. KY 4-0-1 ATS vs teams with a winning home record. Stoops 17-9-1 ATS coming off back-to-back wins. Kentucky the call. |
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09-30-22 | Washington -2.5 v. UCLA | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
Washington/UCLA 10:30: Both teams come in to this one undefeated; however, Washington appears to be the more complete team. They have more experience on both sides of the ball and more returning player experience from a year ago. They're also looking to avenge last year's 24-17 loss at home - that one under former Huskies' coach Jimmy Lake who underachieved mightily. In came Kalen Deboer and brought in QB Michael Penix Jr. (former Hoosier) making him the nation's top passer (347 YPG). UCLA is potent too with 5th year man Dorian Thompson-Robinson who sports a 74.8% completion with 8 TD/1 INT. But don't discount the Washington defense. Washington has won the stats in each of its games by a wide margin, including Michigan State and Stanford. UCLA has the jury still out after whipping four lightweights. Bruins just 5-15-2 ATS vs a winning team, 7-16-1 ATS in September, and 0-4 ATS on Friday. We'll lay a few points with the Huskies. |
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09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 42 h 5 m | Show | |
Tulane/Houston 7:00: Houston cannot be trusted. Now 1-3 ATS and barely survived a win over lightweight Rice. Tulane no joke. Fritz has a veteran team with lots of returning starters. They knocked off Big 12 contender Kansas State on the 17th before falling to a fired up and underrated Southern Miss team. Houston will not have their impact DE Derek Parish (Biceps) and that's a big loss. He has 5 sacks on the year and a menace disrupter in the backfield. Tulane has a solid run game, a respectable versatile QB Pratt (7 TD passes/197 yards rushing) and sound defensively: 4th in total yards allowed/8th in total points allowed. Houston has been victim to penalties and mistakes. Holgorsen yells until he's blue in the face but to no avail. Take Tulane. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Bengals 8:15: Dolphins on an incredible roll and jumping on the Bengals at -3' is unsettling considering Miami's backdoor capability. However, injuries starting to compile for the Dolphins, especially to key players that shift the value to Cincinnati. Miami impact players: receiver Waddle (groin) and QB Tua (back/angle) still in recovery mode as of today. Defensively, key Miami secondary players - Xavien Howard (groin) and S Brandon Jones (chest) also in recovery mode on short week. Burrow and his explosive receiving arsenal are healthy. Bengals starting to get it rolling off convincing win Sunday. Zac Taylor 7-1 ATS vs non division opponent off back-to-back SU wins. On Thursday, Bengals 4-0 ATS vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. With the home team 5-0 ATS in this series, the 3 and a hook is justified. Bengals the call. |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants -1 | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Giants 8:15: Giants growing in confidence and learning to close out games. Daniel Jones overdue to notch a Prime-Time win after 0-8 SU in that role for his career. Run game with Barkley (236 rush yards) should fuel play action for Jones. Giants' offensive line will need to keep Parsons at bay. He clearly is a game wrecker. He won't be a problem on Evan Neal's side but the other tackle will need help and Barkley will need to improve on his blitz pickup. On the other hand, Thibodeaux (knee) should be good to go along with OLB Ojulari (hamstring). They should help fuel the pass rush that's desperately needed in NY. And they don't need Cooper Rush getting comfortable in the pocket again. He'll be without his starting left guard McGovern and TE Schultz (knee). Dallas is 31st in the NFL in point production at 11.5 PPG. Gallup (ACL) is back to give Dallas that vertical threat but remember, he just had surgery in January. A bit premature to get him going consistently so he'll be on a rep count. Giants have lost 10 of 11 in this series and overdue to get a win. All signs point on a SU win for the G-Men tonight. Cowboys 2-12 ATS vs opponent off back-to-back SUATS wins. Giants the call. |
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09-25-22 | 49ers -1.5 v. Broncos | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
49ers/Broncos 8:20: In two games under Hackett, the Broncos have not looked like the power house they were projected to be in the AFC West. Mismanagement of the clock, poor decision making, and not getting plays in quick enough have culminated in an 0-2 ATS mark for the Broncos. Now Hackett has brought in a consultant (Rosburg) to advise him on play calling. With that kind of uncertainty at this stage of the game, we'll go with the defensively stout 49ers who lead the league in defending the pass, #2 vs the run, and #1 in total yards allowed. Bosa is a major disrupter when he's healthy and he'll be on the field. On the other hand, SF's Garoppolo, now 35-16 SU as a starter including playoffs, will have another weapon at his disposal as TE George Kittle is ready to go. And Deebo Samuel is happy Jimmy G is back. He can be utilized more in the offense like last season. We'll grab San Francisco here. |
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09-25-22 | Saints v. Panthers +2.5 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
New Orleans/Carolina 1:00: Panthers snakebit in both games this season on last second 50+ yard field goals. Panthers overdue to get untracked here. Defensively, they're looking for their first takeaway and it should come today; after all, Winston has been sacked 10 times and threw 3 interceptions. He's dealing with back and ankle problems. Panthers won this one 26-7 last September in Charlotte. McCaffrey is supposedly healthy which gives Mayfield another viable weapon. Panthers are 4-0 ATS in Week 3 and the dog in this series is 12-4 ATS. Panthers the call. |
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09-25-22 | Raiders v. Titans +2.5 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Raiders/Titans 1:00: Both teams really struggling and desperate for a win. Titans choked up a lead vs the Giants and got demolished on Monday night by Buffalo. Today, we'll look for them to respond favorably. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS after allowing 30+ in previous game. And they're 8-0 ATS under Vrabel off back-to-back SU losses vs losing teams. Moreover, they're 4-0 ATS before playing the Colts. On the other hand, Josh McDaniels 0-4 ATS in his coaching career vs an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. Raiders off an epic collapse last week. Carr is repeatedly under duress, and he can't find his #1 receiver Adams. And Hunter Renfrow's absence (concussion) won't help matters as focal point of the Titans' defense will be on Adams. We'll look for the Titans to finally get their run game going with Henry. Play action should start to open up to #1 draft choice Burks. Tennessee the call. |
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09-25-22 | Ravens v. Patriots +2.5 | 37-26 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Ravens/Patriots 1:00: Patriots should do well in this role. They're 17-3 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. New England finally got Agholor and Meyers involved in the offensive game plan last week. It seemed to open up the run game a bit. Mac Jones should settle in today; after all, the Ravens' secondary allowed a staggering 469 yards and 6 TD passes last week. Belichick should find areas of the Ravens' defense to exploit. At the same time, he'll have the defensive game plan directed on stopping Lamar Jackson. Patriots' defense respectable (4th in total yards allowed) and they're getting to the QB. Baltimore just 1-6-1 ATS in Week 3. We'll take the points with the Patriots at Foxborough. |
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09-24-22 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -19 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Ohio State 7:30: OSU warmed up their offense and scored TDs on 7 consecutive possessions last week vs Toledo. Wisconsin has a much better defense but still not a match for the offensive machine of the Buckeyes. CJ Stroud and company (#1 offense in nation) should get it rolling in Columbus. Wisconsin is coming off a blowout win over New Mexico State but should find points to be at a premium vs the Buckeyes. Ryan Day brought in Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State, where he did wonders for the Cowboys. Knowles is now shaping the Buckeyes' veteran defensive unit into a top-notch unit. OSU 4-0 ATS at home vs Wisconsin and we'll lay the wood. |
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09-24-22 | Tulsa v. Ole Miss -21 | 27-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Tulsa/Ole Miss 4:00: On the surface, looks like a good play on Tulsa; after all, they have the #1 pass game in the nation and have been a covering machine for HC Montgomery over the last few seasons. A closer look, however, reveals fundamental flaws to their game that will be exploited by Lane Kiffin. The Golden Hurricane doesn't have a run game to protect QB Brin. They're 114th in the nation running the football. Ole Miss is winning games on defense - allowing a combined 13 points. And the Rebels can bring the pressure averaging 4.3 sacks per game. Moreover, Kiffin struck gold in the off-season in the transfer portal with QB Jaxson Dart (USC), RBs Zach Evans (TCU) and Ulysses Bentley IV (SMU) along with a crapload of talented receivers. The Rebels are grinding out a ridiculous 272 YPG on the ground. Tulsa defense doesn't have the depth to sustain or contain that ground game for 4 quarters. Ole Miss rolls. |
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09-24-22 | Oregon v. Washington State +6.5 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
09-24-22 | Minnesota -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota/Michigan State 3:30: Gradual erosion taking place at Michigan State. Last season, defensively they yielded 46 YPG more than in 2020. And their secondary ranked 85th but managed an 11-win season and bowl win. They did make big plays, but the wagon is no longer hitched to Heisman finalist Kenneth Walker III. Last week, Washington exploited the Spartans' weaknesses as QB Penix lit up the secondary for 397 yards and 4 TDs. On the offensive side, the Spartans' offensive line couldn't get their top running back going (27 yards on 13 carries). QB Payton Thorne isn't a guy that can carry the team without a strong run game. Minnesota comes in to East Lansing off 3 blowout wins and hungry. Their offense is equipped with a mammoth front line that's opening truck sized holes for their horse Mohamed Ibrahim (464 yards rushing). And veteran signal caller Tanner Morgan is helped with the return of OC Ciarocca this season. Gophers lighting up the scoreboard (47.2 PPG). Minnesota has had success at East Lansing (4-0 ATS). With the road team in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll roll with the Gophers. |
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09-24-22 | Maryland v. Michigan -17 | 27-34 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
Maryland/Michigan Noon: Michigan's first challenge after thrashing three consecutive lightweights. Wolves should be up to the challenge. They're 5-0 ATS as conference favorites off non-conference game. Maryland surely has the athletes under Locksley but can't create a consistent winner. And they usually crap the bed when stepping up in competition. Terps are a money burning 2-15 ATS vs greater than .500 conference opponent the last four years. Michigan is 6-0 ATS in this series including the 59-18 whitewashing last November. Sure, Tagoviola has a hot hand and lots of skill talent to go to, but Michigan's defense has been overwhelmingly strong this season. And defensively, Terps have secondary issues which will be a problem as Michigan getting the pass game going with McCarthy and McNamara. Michigan the call. |
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09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force -24 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
09-22-22 | Steelers +5 v. Browns | 17-29 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
Steelers/Browns 8:15: Both teams coming off losses. Browns had an epic collapse late in the final quarter vs the Jets; meanwhile, Steelers couldn't get anything going offensively under OC Matt Canada in their second straight loss. Steelers are staying in the games but just can't get enough offensive production out of Trubisky. He can't get the ball downfield as the Steelers rank in the bottom tier of the NFL in yards per pass. He does have weapons in Claypool, rooking Pickens and TE Freirmuth. And Najee Harris ran roughshod over Cleveland last year in 2 games (279 yards). Browns have some injury concerns with DE Winovich and DE Clowney out. Garrett (neck) should be good to go and that is a concern and a focal point Steelers have to address. And if Trubisky can't get it done, Tomlin could go with Pickett to generate some offense downfield. Defensively, Steelers have to stop RB Chubb. Not having T.J. Watt (pec) is a big loss but Heyward and Highsmith will have to step it up. Steelers Tomlin 5-0 ATS as a less than .500 team off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU loss. Steelers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings while the dog in this series is 4-0 ATS. Pittsburgh the call. |
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09-22-22 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech UNDER 50.5 | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
West Virginia/Virginia Tech 7:30: Blacksburg is a tough place to play for a visiting team. Hokies' defensive minded HC Brent Pry wants to win with tough defense, establishing an effective run game and limiting turnovers. His defense has been solid thus far but not opportunistic (1 takeaway). And Pry will take a conservative approach with his QB Wells (22 INTs/22 TDs in career) to carry out his game plan. On the other hand, WV QB J.T. Daniels is a more accomplished QB with great poise in the pocket. But WV at their best when run game is cooking. So far, Tech run stop unit is outstanding - allowing 40.7 YPG (5th nationally). Hokies 0-7 O/U in September football and this series is 1-5-1 O/U in its last 7 meetings. We'll stay "under". |
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09-19-22 | Vikings +2.5 v. Eagles | 7-24 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
Vikings/Eagles 8:30: Cousins and company showed up vs Green Bay in Week 1, we'll look for a solid follow up here; after all, Kirk Cousins is 6-3 SU vs Philadelphia as a member of Washington and Minnesota. And Cousins got over the prime time hump. He was 0-9 on MNF before winning his last 3 MNF games. He has a healthy display of weapons. HC O'Connell lined up Justin Jefferson in various areas of the field vs Green Bay and it worked like a charm. He's a matchup nightmare in the slot (on linebackers) and on top of the numbers. Theilen is overdue for a big game and even former #1 Eagles draft choice Jalen Reagor (drafted ahead of Jefferson) is now with Minnesota to create havoc. Eagles not having Derek Barnett (ACL) will limit the pass rush for Philly. And Eagles did not look good stopping the run last week vs Detroit (allowed 181 yards). Getting Dalvin Cook rolling will surely open up the Vikings' play action pass. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is loaded with offensive weaponry themselves but I like the improved defense under Donatell. Hurts just 6-8-1 SU at home and 0-2 on MNF. We'll take Minnesota. |
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09-19-22 | Titans +10 v. Bills | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 1 m | Show | |
Titans/Bills 7:15: I realize the Bills are in a major revenge mode here after Titans have beaten them two straight years - both in Nashville. And surely the Bills looked every bit the pre-season favorite to win the AFC after last Thursday's demolition of the incumbent Super Bowl Champion - Rams. Nevertheless, Titans the call here. Titans, under Vrabel, have a history of dropping games to middle of the road teams yet can up for and defeat the NFL elite. Such be the case tonight. They'll need to shore up a run-stop-unit that allowed Barkley to run roughshod on them. And rookie receivers #1 Burks and #5 Kyle Phillips will need to step up for Tannehill. And King Henry will need to step up his game several notches from last week. Good news is that Bills' DT Oliver (ankle) is out to lessen the deep bench of Buffalo. Not only that, Josh Allen's emerging WR Gabe Allen (ankle) won't be at full strength. Tennessee defense has to up its game several notches. Vrabel 9-1 ATS off non-division vs opponent off double digit SU win. Take the Titans. |