03-13-24 |
Lakers -2.5 v. Kings |
|
107-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
Lakers/Kings 10:10: Although the Kings have dominated this series (7-1 SU/ATS) in the last 8 matchups, this is a trouble spot for Sacramento. The Kings have not fared well in back-to-back games at 3-7 ATS; moreover, coming off a big win unrested just 1-4 ATS. Lakers' James (ankle) and Davis (Achilles) were in shoot around earlier so most likely a go. Lakers playing a decent stretch of basketball now and most likely will send a message to the young Kings. Look for Lakers to avoid the season sweep.
|
03-13-24 |
Missouri v. Georgia -2.5 |
|
59-64 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
Missouri/Georgia 9:30: Missouri had five in-season surgeries they had to deal with and the glaring weakness showed as the Tigers went winless in the SEC. Gates wasn't able to get his second-tier players up to speed and I don't see a turnaround here. Georgia, on the other hand, showed competitiveness on the road this season under White. Look for the Bulldogs to bounce back after a big loss and deliver.
|
03-13-24 |
Xavier v. Butler +2 |
|
76-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
03-13-24 |
Oklahoma +3 v. TCU |
Top |
70-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
03-13-24 |
USC -3.5 v. Washington |
|
80-74 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
03-12-24 |
Gonzaga v. St. Mary's +3.5 |
|
60-69 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
|
03-12-24 |
Miami-FL -2.5 v. Boston College |
|
65-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
03-11-24 |
Santa Clara +11.5 v. St. Mary's |
|
65-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
Santa Clara/St. Mary's 9:00: I like teams that can play on the road well and Santa Clara is one of them. They covered 8 of 11 road tilts and are coming off a 104-79 route of SD in the first round of the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas. As for the Gaels, they've been off since March 2nd - when they got thumped by Gonzaga. St. Mary's delivered a season sweep over the Broncos. The first one was 73-49 burial two days after the Broncos upset Gonzaga. The second one was a more competitive cover at St. Mary's. Sendek has a pretty solid history of same season revenge at 17-8 ATS. SC is a strong rebounding team, and they have a few dudes who can shoot - in Adama-Alpha Bal and 3 pt. marksman - Marshall. We'll take the points.
|
03-10-24 |
Michigan State v. Indiana +3.5 |
|
64-65 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 51 m |
Show
|
Michigan State/Indiana 4:30: The return of Xavier Johnson helped the Hoosiers deliver 3 straight wins. Johnson was out six games with an elbow injury. During that time the Hoosiers went on a 1-5 SU slide. Now that he's back, Indiana is playing a great stretch of basketball heading into the Big 10 tournament this Wednesday. Michigan State, however, coming in to this one on a 1-3 slide and needing a few breaks to go their way in an ugly home win against NW on Wednesday. Home team in this series is 6-1 ATS. We'll take the points with the home team.
|
03-10-24 |
Nebraska -5.5 v. Michigan |
|
85-70 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
Nebraska/Michigan Noon: Michigan pretty much packed their bags for the season as they sit in the #14 spot of the conference tournament on Wednesday. They'll have to win four straight tournament games to get an automatic bid to the dance - a highly unlikely scenario. As for Nebraska, not a good road team but, unlike Michigan, does have incentive here. A win here would guarantee them a double bye in the Big 10 tournament. One of the better teams in recent Nebraska history, we'll look for the Cornhuskers to complete the season sweep and cover vs the demoralized Wolverines.
|
03-09-24 |
Kansas +8.5 v. Houston |
Top |
46-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 44 m |
Show
|
Kansas/Houston 4:00: Kansas thrashed Houston in Lawrence 78-65 on February 3rd. Houston, of course, wants revenge but has its site on the bigger prize - deep run in NCAA Tournament. They already have clinched at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title with a win Wednesday over UCF. Sampson, however, is dealing with some bench production injuries. Jayhawks' veteran Coach Self knows how to utilize his bench and has a large percentage of the lineup available that buried Houston in Lawrence. Jayhawks can clinch the #3 Big 12 seed with a win here and that would clearly boost their seeding in the NCAA's. Kansas and the generous number of points here is the call.
|
03-09-24 |
South Carolina +5 v. Mississippi State |
|
93-89 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 41 m |
Show
|
S. Carolina/Miss State 2:30: Miss State trying to get to that 20-game win ledger but on an 0-3 slide leading to the conference tournaments. Meanwhile, South Carolina on a 3-1 ATS run. They were competitive vs class of SEC Tennessee on Wednesday falling short in the win and ATS column. Lamont Paris has done a great job preparing his boys to go on the road where they're a strong 8-2 ATS. They already notched a win against the Bulldogs earlier this season and can play relaxed here knowing they're in good shape to get an NCAA Tournament berth. Take the points.
|
03-09-24 |
Texas A&M +1.5 v. Ole Miss |
|
86-60 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
Texas A&M/Ole Miss 2:00: Ole Miss really struggling, especially down the stretch in games. Defensive minded Head Coach Chris Beard, who is a stickler for attention to detail and prep, really frustrated with his guys. On the other hand, Buzz Williams confident down the stretch that his team can get in the NCAA Tourney with a win here and a win in the Conference Tourney. We'll look for his boys to get it done. A&M looking to avenge their earlier season home loss to the Rebels, and they've covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. Aggies the call.
|
03-09-24 |
Arkansas +15 v. Alabama |
|
88-92 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 9 m |
Show
|
Arkansas/Alabama Noon: Arkansas is finally living up to a bit of the pre-season hype. After a miserable 1-6 SU start in SEC play, the Hogs have gone on a 5-1 ATS tear. Battle has gone off to the tune of 141 points over past 4 games. Sure, Alabama is the #1 scoring offense in the nation but also at the bottom tier of points allowed (349th) at 80.1 PPG. Arkansas capable of trading points on this floor. 'Tide not playing their best ball now. After that 7-1 SU run that launched them into the Top 25, they've lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Hogs are 8-2 ATS vs Alabama and getting a bit too many points. Take Arkansas.
|
03-08-24 |
Bucks -1.5 v. Lakers |
|
122-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
03-07-24 |
Celtics v. Nuggets +1.5 |
|
109-115 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
|
03-07-24 |
Heat +4.5 v. Mavs |
|
108-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
03-06-24 |
Connecticut v. Marquette +5.5 |
|
74-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
U Conn/Marguette 8:30: Marquette may have assist and points leader Kolek out, but they'll have big man Ighodaro back. He contributes heavily on the boards and adds 14 PPG. Chase Ross and Kam Jones are quality enough of a back court to deliver on Marquette's strong home floor. Marquette has knocked off U Conn the last two at this arena. Throw in revenge from the earlier season blowout and we got a play on with a dangerous Marquette team.
|
03-06-24 |
Houston v. UCF +8.5 |
|
67-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
Houston/UCF 7:00: Going to side with Johnny Dawkins and his boys which have been competitive in the Big 12 this season. They're 8-4 ATS in their last 12 dog roles. They've got some shooters which can hit from the perimeter in Sellers and Johnson. And they play respectable defense. Houston has a big target on their back as the #1 team and they're thin on the bench with Tugler, Arceneaux, Walker Jr. - all guys who come off the bench to put in quality minutes - out. Houston sports a sluggish 1-6 ATS role as a favorite and barely squeaking by on the Big 12 road. UCF off hard fought home loss to #8 Iowa State Saturday, will not be an easy out tonight. UCF the call.
|
03-05-24 |
Purdue v. Illinois -2 |
|
77-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
03-04-24 |
Thunder -1 v. Lakers |
|
104-116 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
Thunder/Lakers 10:40: Thunder has had some trouble in Los Angeles losing 2 of their last 3 there. And they're coming off a grind out winning outing last night. Nevertheless, we'll side with the young guns of Oklahoma City that's 7-3 ATS in the second of back-to-back games this season. Lakers off another disappointing but predictable loss to Denver on Saturday. James got his 40,000 points record but logged plenty of minutes (37) in the process. And A.D. was near 39 minutes. Both are dealing with injuries - James (ankle) and A.D. (Achilles). OKC likes to run up and down the floor so it could be troublesome for the Lakers - especially with an uncertain Ham dishing out the minutes. OKC the call.
|
03-04-24 |
Texas v. Baylor -6.5 |
|
85-93 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
03-03-24 |
Rutgers v. Nebraska -8 |
|
56-67 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 38 m |
Show
|
Rutgers/Nebraska 6:30: Nebraska has a very strong home floor this season and can light it up from beyond the arc. Rutgers struggles to score on the road. Look for Nebraska to bounce back strong after sluggish outing at Ohio State on Thursday. Rutgers did snap out of their mid to late February funk with a convincing win over a Michigan team that's cashed in its chips for the season. But Nebraska a whole different animal in Lincoln (17-1). And they're in a revenge mode from January 17th OT loss. Nebraska the call.
|
03-03-24 |
Indiana v. Maryland UNDER 136.5 |
|
83-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 24 m |
Show
|
Indiana/MD 2:00: Both of these teams struggle offensively - 12th and 13th in Big Ten offensive production. MD clunks from beyond the arc at 28.2%. Indiana has trouble scoring on the road. Terps do bring defensive intensity and that should be a constant here. Terps are 0-8 O/U at home vs teams with losing records on the road. And 5 of the last 6 in this series has gone "under". We'll stay "under" here.
|
03-02-24 |
Nuggets +1.5 v. Lakers |
|
124-114 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
Nuggets/lakers 8:40: James should get his 40,000 tonight but Jokic and rolling Nuggets should get their 3rd win of the season against the Lakers. Murray (ankle) is questionable, and that's a concern; however, his backups - Jackson, Holiday, Braun shouldn't have trouble blending in with an uber talented Porter Jr., Caldwell Pope, Gordon and Jokic. Nuggets the call.
|
03-02-24 |
Michigan State +10.5 v. Purdue |
|
74-80 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 53 m |
Show
|
Michigan State/Purdue 8:00: Michigan State appears in danger of ending their 25-year streak of an NCAA Tournament bid. They've lost two straight including a gut-wrenching loss at home to Ohio State on Sunday. On the other hand, Purdue has won 11 of their last 12 and in line for a #1 seeding in the NCAA Tournament; however, they're just 3-5 ATS in their last 8. And don't count Izzo and the Spartans out just yet. The wily veteran coach has elevated some of his past teams, much less talented than this one, to do some amazing things in March. He'll need an answer to stop Purdue's Edey who dropped an average of 35 points and 15 rebounds on his boys last season in two Boilermakers wins. He's had nearly a week to scheme. Remember, Michigan State was projected to be a Top 10 team in preseason. Take the points.
|
03-02-24 |
Iowa v. Northwestern -3 |
|
87-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
Iowa/Northwestern 5:30: Iowa absolutely owned this series until last season when the Wildcats blasted the Hawkeyes in Illinois. Boo Buie is a great floor leader with a strong supporting cast. Coach Collins has these guys playing great this time of year. Iowa has been suspect defensively virtually all season. We'll keep riding Northwestern.
|
03-02-24 |
Marquette v. Creighton -4.5 |
|
75-89 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 44 m |
Show
|
Marquette/Creigton 2:30: #5 Marquette playing a good stretch of basketball, but their reigning Big East P.O.Y. Tyler Kolek is battling an oblique injury and I'm going to side with Marquette keeping him out for this one based on where Marquette is sitting among the NCAA elite and well positioned going into the conference tournaments. Sure, Marquette still has a loaded backcourt in Jones, Mitchell and Ross, but Creighton is more needy of this win. The Blue Jays have some dudes too - Scheirman, Alexander and Kalkbrenner average around 17 PPG each! The Blue Jays are also well coached with McDermott. Creighton seeks triple revenge, having lost the last 3 in this series, including 72-67 in December at Marquette. When Creighton hits the accelerator, look out! Just ask U Conn in which they hung an 85-66 blasting on them not long ago. We'll lay the points with Creighton.
|
03-02-24 |
Oregon +13.5 v. Arizona |
|
83-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 46 m |
Show
|
Oregon/Arizona 2:00: Arizona won the first meeting in Eugene 87-78 on January 27th. Oregon is clearly on the bubble and could use a win here against the #6 ranked Wildcats. Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs Arizona under Altman. And we won't discount Dana Altman's 750 career wins in Division 1 basketball. He'll have his boys prepared and competitive. Ducks have collected a few strong wins on the PAC 12 road at Washington State, USC and Stanford. Altman a sweet 21-9 ATS in same season revenge. Take the points.
|
03-01-24 |
Cavs v. Pistons +8.5 |
|
110-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
02-29-24 |
St. Mary's -15 v. Pepperdine |
|
83-57 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
St. Mary's/Pepperdine 11:00: Analysis to follow...
|
02-29-24 |
Wizards +9.5 v. Lakers |
|
131-134 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
Wizards/Lakers 10:40: Lakers coming off a second half 21-point deficit comeback win over their court shared rival Clippers. Now, they go unrested at home against league bottom feeder Washington, that had a day off to mull stopping their 12-game losing streak. Consequently, that means James and Davis will either take the game off or check out mentally vs the punchless Wizards. Washington has actually been a decent spread winner on the road at 18-10-2. Former Laker Kuzma will surely be motivated to help ignite a fire in the belly of the Wizards. We'll take the points.
|
02-29-24 |
Nebraska v. Ohio State -3.5 |
|
69-78 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
Nebraska/Ohio State 6:30: Interim OSU Coach Diebler has the Buckeyes playing their best ball winning two of their last three games, including upsetting then #1 Purdue on the 18th and then an outright win at Michigan State as a 10-point dog last Sunday. Buckeyes will need a win here and at least a 3-game run in the conference tournament to secure an NCAA berth. Nebraska has been hot - 4-0 SU/ATS run. But the Huskers are not quite the team on the road that they are at home. Nebraska sports a minus 6.2 points differential in that role. Cornhuskers were fortunate to get 6'10" Mast go off for 34 points at home vs the Buckeyes in the January 23rd 83-69 win. Look for the Buckeyes to return the favor tonight.
|
02-28-24 |
Oklahoma v. Iowa State UNDER 137 |
|
45-58 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma/Iowa State 8:00: This is the second game in this season series. Oklahoma took the first one 71-63 in Norman. Iowa State tough to beat at home where they're undefeated this season. Otzelberger's defense allows a stingy 63 PPG. The Cyclones pack the paint often in a man to zone switch at any given instant. Teams that can kick out and hit threes have moderate success. Oklahoma is not a great 3-point shooting team at a 34% clip. On the other hand, Porter Moser is another defensive minded coach who will have his boys schooled to bring optimum intensity. And they guard the perimeter well at 29% - 10th nationally. The last 3 played at Iowa State in this series combined for 122, 129 and 111, respectively. We'll look for both teams to ratchet up the defensive intensity again to stay "under"
|
02-28-24 |
Northwestern +6 v. Maryland |
|
68-61 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 51 m |
Show
|
Northwestern/Maryland 7:00: I was all over MD (+2) at Rutgers on Sunday. MD dominated the glass and suffocated the Scarlett Knights offensively. Tonight, I'm fading the Terps. NW won the first game at home 72-69. In the final minute NW's Boo Buie scored 2 buckets to ice it. MD's Jahmir Young is a scoring machine (20.7 PPG) but Buie is a playmaker down the stretch of games; as a matter of fact, in games decided by 5 points or less, Wildcats are 8-2 SU while the Terps are 1-9. I don't see MD dominating the boards against NW like they did vs Rutgers. NW had a few extra prep days for this, and we'll look for Collins' well coached boys to deliver.
|
02-28-24 |
Auburn +7.5 v. Tennessee |
|
84-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
Auburn/Tennessee 7:00: Bruce Pearl goes back to his old stomping grounds to challenge the team he once coached. He's had a great deal of success vs the Volunteers at 8-1 ATS. Possibility that F Jaylin Williams (knee) might sit out again; however, Baker Mazara picked filled the void well last Saturday with 25 points in a blowout of Georgia. Auburn (11) looking to strengthen their seeding for the tournaments and should be quite competitive here. Auburn the call.
|
02-27-24 |
Mavs +4.5 v. Cavs |
|
119-121 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
Mavericks/Cavaliers 7:10: This series has gone to the visitor at 6-0 ATS. December 27th of this season, Cleveland went into Dallas to deliver a 113-110 win. Tonight, look for Dallas to return the favor. Irving and Doncic starting to play well together but will need not only Hardaway Jr. to step up his game but other supporting cast members against the #2 defensive team in the league. Dallas was riding a 7-game win streak until they stumbled at Indiana Sunday. Look for the Mavericks to bounce back vs a Cavaliers team on an 0-5 ATS slide. They're coming off a sluggish road win vs league bottom feeder Washington. Dallas the call.
|
02-27-24 |
Davidson +11 v. Dayton |
|
66-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
Davidson/Dayton 7:00: Davidson playing a good stretch of basketball on a 4-0 ATS run despite losing 2 of those SU. They're coming off a tough loss at Richmond in the closing seconds. HC Matt McKillop has some veteran guys who can step up on the road. Bailey, Kochera and Huffman each are double-digit scorers. And Durkin, who's getting more minutes because of Skogman's season ending injury, is developing well. The Wildcats got worked at home in the first matchup but now face a Dayton team that's fallen off their hot earlier season play. They've failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 games. We'll look for Davidson to be competitive tonight.
|
02-26-24 |
Baylor +2.5 v. TCU |
|
62-54 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
Baylor/TCU 9:00: Baylor coming off a disappointing loss at home on Saturday vs Houston. They got stomped in the first half with a 16-point deficit but amazingly worked their way back to force OT and actually take the lead before losing down the stretch. Nevertheless, they showed a lot of grit in that comeback attempt. Bears go into TCU with revenge from their 105-102 OT loss back on January 27th. TCU has been playing a good stretch of basketball, but we won't count out the Bears here. This has been an extremely tight series with Baylor controlling a 4-2 SU edge only to lose by 1 point at TCU January 24th, 2023, and, of course, this season's OT loss at home. TCU's perimeter defense suspect, and Bridges, Nunn, and even Walter could go off tonight. Baylor the call.
|
02-26-24 |
Pistons +11.5 v. Knicks |
|
111-113 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
Pistons/Knicks 7:40: The Knicks have absolutely owned the Pistons the last few years - winning 13 straight. The last win in this series for the Pistons was November 6, 2019. Knicks have been vulnerable recently on a 1-7 ATS slide. Brunson is limited in his help with Randle, Robinson and Anunoby all sidelined with injuries. Detroit, the worst team in the league, has shown signs of competitiveness recently - on a 6-4 ATS run. They have a tendency to follow up an isolated cover with another cover at 8-3 ATS in that role. They were competitive at NY on November 30th this season with a 118-112 loss. We'll look for Detroit to keep this one competitive.
|
02-26-24 |
West Virginia +9.5 v. Kansas State |
|
90-94 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
West Virginia/Kansas State 7:00: West Virginia, winless on the Big 12 road, went into a strong Iowa State venue Saturday and easily covered. Had it not been for a silly 23 turnovers - many self-induced, the Mounties could have won that game. Kansas State presents a pretty strong home court too, but not the caliber of defense the Mounties faced at Iowa State Saturday. Mounties moved the ball pretty well and had 4 double digit scorers. Kriisa, Edwards and Slazinski average double digits on the season. And I was impressed on Saturday by the defensive discipline of WV under Josh Eilert. K State is coming off a win over BYU and now playing into revenge from when they went to WV on January 9th in an 81-67 win. Look for WV to be competitive here for their 3rd straight cover.
|
02-25-24 |
Minnesota +7.5 v. Nebraska |
|
55-73 |
Loss |
-115 |
17 h 10 m |
Show
|
Minnesota/Nebraska 6:30: Hard to go against a team 23-3 ATS for the season. They've covered 6 of 7 conference road games. Nebraska a formidable foe, especially at home this season. In the first game in this series December 6th in Minnesota, the Golden Gophers overcame a 15-point halftime deficit to win by double digits. In that game, they got no points out of leading scorer Garcia in 7 minutes. Minnesota has multiple scorers who step up repeatedly. Look for Minnesota to do what they do best on the road - stick around.
|
02-25-24 |
Mavs -1 v. Pacers |
|
111-133 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
02-25-24 |
Maryland +2.5 v. Rutgers |
|
63-46 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
Maryland has covered 2 of the last 3 visits to Rutgers. They're looking for same season revenge after getting up on Feb 6th on their home floor. Maryland sticks around on the road with a hustling and physical defense. Rutgers, like Maryland, is offensively challenged and should allow Maryland to eke this one out. Maryland the call.
|
02-24-24 |
Alabama v. Kentucky -2.5 |
|
95-117 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 41 m |
Show
|
Alabama/Kentucky 4:00: Alabama blasted the Wildcats last season at Alabama 78-52. Calipari sports a strong conference revenge mark off double digit defeats to the tune of 7-3 ATS. And throw in the fact they let one slip away at LSU on Wednesday, Wildcats should be fired up here. Meanwhile, Crimson Tide, at home, barely got by Florida. The #1 Alabama offense seems like a lock to outgun a Kentucky defense that's allowed a generous 73 PPG. On the other hand, Kentucky can light it up too at nearly 88 PPG and faces a defense that allows 77 PPG. Reeves and Dillingham can match buckets with the best of them. And the Wildcats should have board crashing Tre Mitchell back today to add to a deep bench of shooters. Grab the Wildcats here.
|
02-24-24 |
West Virginia v. Iowa State -17.5 |
|
64-71 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
West Virginia/Iowa State 2:00: Iowa State in an ornery mood after dropping a 73-65 decision to #2 Houston on Monday. WV, in comparison, will be like facing a JV team. Mounties used to own this series when Bob Huggins was patrolling the bench. Now, they're substantially lacking defensive discipline under their new leader. And they've been blown out on the Big 12 road to the tune of 19.5 PPG. ISU, which is undefeated at home, sports one of the best defenses in the NCAA. And they've got shooters! We'll lay the wood.
|
02-23-24 |
Heat +3.5 v. Pelicans |
|
106-95 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
02-22-24 |
Washington State +13 v. Arizona |
|
77-74 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
Washington State/Arizona 11:00: Washington State already has notched a win over Arizona (Jan 13th). And they're currently playing their best stretch of basketball. The Cougars have showed road savviness and have the veteran leadership and moxie to fight on enemy ground. They share the ball well and play better defense than Arizona. We'll take the generous number of points.
|
02-22-24 |
Michigan v. Northwestern -11.5 |
|
62-76 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
Michigan/Northwestern 9:00: Northwestern has been the punching bag for Michigan for years. This season, Michigan is limping along on a 1-8 SU/ATS slide while Northwestern has thrived with upsets of conference heavyweights Illionois and Purdue. Northwestern can light it up from 3pt land at a 43% clip (best in conference). The Wolverines 3 point defense allows 36% (314th), and their defense has been pathetic - allowing 79 PPG (339th). If that's not enough, leading scorer McDaniel is on the hot seat for academic probation while 2nd leading scorer Nkamhoua is out with a wrist injury. We'll look for Boo Buie and the Wildcats to keep their foot on the gas tonight.
|
02-21-24 |
Illinois v. Penn State +8 |
|
89-90 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
Illinois/Penn State 6:30: Penn State on an 0-3 SU slide in desperation of notching a conference win, will play at the 6502-seating capacity Rec Hall for the first time since December 2015. They'll do so without their leading scorer - Clary - who was dismissed earlier this week. Baldwin, Hicks and Kern will have to share a majority of the scoring duties for the offensively challenged Nittany Lions. Fortunately, offensively proficient Illinois is giving up lots of points nowadays. Penn State controls a 3-0 SU/ATS run in this series, and we'll look for them to hang around here.
|
02-20-24 |
Maryland +7.5 v. Wisconsin |
|
70-74 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
Maryland/Wisconsin 9:00: This series has been tightly contested with a margin of 6 points or less in 5 of 6 games. Both teams struggling a bit. MD 4-6 SU/5-5 ATS in their last 10 while the Badgers are on a 1-8-1 ATS slide. MD's defense, in the top tier of the Big Ten, keeps them in games and gives them a chance. Unfortunately, their offense lacks at 66.6 PPG; however, Jahmir Young has fueled the Terps to 75 or more points in their last 3 games. We'll look for MD to keep it competitive here.
|
02-20-24 |
Tennessee -11.5 v. Missouri |
|
72-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
Tennessee/Missouri 7:00: Barnes is utilizing his bench more to keep his team healthy as tournament time remains around the corner. The bench, however, has been very productive. Vol's have blown out 3 of their last 4 opponents and, in addition, whipped Kentucky at Rupp Arena. Missouri has been injury ravaged, struggling to be competitive in SEC with 12 straight losses. Tennessee has covered in 4 of the last 5 at Missouri. We'll lay the wood here with a team that controls a major talent disparity.
|
02-19-24 |
Iowa State v. Houston UNDER 132 |
|
65-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
02-19-24 |
Iowa State +8.5 v. Houston |
|
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
|
02-18-24 |
Utah v. UCLA -2 |
|
70-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
02-17-24 |
Colorado -1.5 v. USC |
|
92-89 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
02-17-24 |
Michigan State -6 v. Michigan |
|
73-63 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 25 m |
Show
|
|
02-17-24 |
Akron -13 v. Buffalo |
|
73-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
02-17-24 |
Texas Tech v. Iowa State -7.5 |
|
74-82 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
Texas Tech/Iowa State Noon:
|
02-15-24 |
Warriors v. Jazz OVER 240 |
|
140-137 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
Warriors/Jazz 9:10: Both of these teams are coming off losses last night. Utah defense was torched from the perimeter as the LeBron-less Lakers sank 14 of 31 from the perimeter at a 45.2% clip. Now they face the NBA's all-time perimeter scorer who has sunk at least 6 trey bombs in 8 of his last 11 games. And usually before All-Star break teams will dismiss defensive prep - lots of them already checked out for break. Going unrested, I see that magnified tonight. We'll grab the "over"
|
02-15-24 |
Colorado v. UCLA +1.5 |
|
60-64 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
Colorado/UCLA 9:00: UCLA finding its rhythm at the right time. They're on a 7-1 SU/ATS run as Cronin instituted a nice balance of offense and defense to deliver. The #1 PAC 12 defense will now face a sliding Colorado team that's having a tough time finding its footing. They're on an 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS fall. Colorado has had its problems on the road virtually all season and traveling to UCLA at the wrong time. Take UCLA
|
02-14-24 |
Lakers +6 v. Jazz |
|
138-122 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
02-14-24 |
Miami-FL +7.5 v. Clemson |
|
60-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
02-13-24 |
Ole Miss +8.5 v. Kentucky |
|
63-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
02-12-24 |
Wolves v. Clippers -4.5 |
|
121-100 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
Wolves/Clippers 10:40: Going to lay a little wood here based on how this series has unfolded. Wolves have captured 5 of the last 6 SU vs Los Angeles. Clippers realize they have to be able to beat one of the top teams in the Western Conference if they're going to get anywhere come playoff time. Clippers are healthy and playing a good stretch of ball. T-Wolves are playing well too but haven't played since the 8th and that could have stalled out momentum. Lue does a good job in matching personnel and can offset Gobert's height and strength by occasionally going small when they're hitting their perimeter shots. We'll look for the Clippers to make a statement here.
|
02-11-24 |
49ers v. Chiefs +1 |
Top |
22-25 |
Win
|
100 |
330 h 56 m |
Show
|
49ers/Chiefs 6:30: At first glance, after 49ers and Chiefs won their respective games in the championship round, I expected KC to be a 1' or even 2-point favorite in this matchup; after all, KC, after an underachieving regular season with numerous wide receiver mishaps, drops, offensive line holding penalties, cleaned their game up when it really counted - playoffs. SF, on the other hand, ravaged through regular season opponents, for the most part but struggled at times during the playoffs. Therefore, Chiefs should be that slight favorite after second and third glances. KC Spagnuolo not only had KC playing at a high level during the regular season (2nd in points allowed at 17.3 PPG) but kept them playing at a high level during the playoffs, including a virtuoso performance against Baltimore, as I predicted. Look for Spagnuolo to dial up the confusion against SF's Brock Purdy, who is reduced to mediocrity facing zone coverage - which KC doesn't show much but could Sunday. KC secondary has been consistently strong with C Sneed and company. And disruptive forces Chris Jones and Karlaftis have gotten it done rushing the QB and helping against the run. Sure, McCaffery and company will get their yards, but Bolton and, now healthy, Gay make plays when needed. Offensively, Pacheco should get the run game generated against an underachieving run-stop-unit that promises to be better tonight. They haven't fulfilled that promise the last two playoff games and I'm not buying it tonight vs a solid KC offense that proved G Allegretti could step in for All Pro Thuney without missing a beat. And then there is Mahomes - 3-0 vs SF and on the precipice of history as one of 4 other QBs with 3 Super Bowl wins. In addition to Kelce and Rice, Moore is off the IR and should contribute to his success. Chiefs the call.
|
02-10-24 |
St. John's +8 v. Marquette |
|
75-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 9 m |
Show
|
St. John's/Marquette 6:00: Red Storm hit a rough patch for a few weeks with a 1-4 ATS slide before turning up the heat against Big East bottom feeder DePaul. It was a good tune up for this revenge game. Marquette stole a win at St. John's January 20th - 73-72. Look for Pitino's bunch to return the favor. Red Storm playing well on road (4-2 ATS) and have the veteran leadership with Soriano and Penn transfer Dingle. We'll take the points with St. John's.
|
02-10-24 |
TCU +8 v. Iowa State |
|
59-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 24 m |
Show
|
TCU/Iowa State 2:00: Iowa State controls a 13-game win streak in Ames, including impressive wins over Houston and Kansas earlier this season. Their defense has been fabulous. But don't count TCU out. The Horned frogs have dangerous 3-point shooter Tennyson along with Miller who are part of an offense that can light it up. Dixon is emphasizing better rebounding and look for the Horned Frogs to make a game of this one. TCU lost the first matchup 73-72 at home earlier this season. Dixon is a strong 13-7 ATS in same season revenge as a coach. We'll grab the points here.
|
02-10-24 |
Providence v. Butler -4 |
|
72-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 35 m |
Show
|
Providence/Butler 2:00: Butler has lost 7 straight in this series. Overdue for a win in this series for the Bulldogs are playing a good stretch of ball. They're 4-1 SU/ATS in their last 5 games, including a solid cover (+14) at U Conn Tuesday. The Bulldogs went 4 of 18 from 3-point land vs the #1 Huskies but managed to keep it competitive down the stretch. They're catching Providence off a huge OT win at home vs Creighton. Friars' Hopkins (knee) was a big part of their defense and board work. Friars 4-5 SU without him. We'll look for savvy coach Matta to institute a strong game plan vs big-time player Oduro. Hinkle Fieldhouse a strong venue and Bulldogs should deliver sweet revenge.
|
02-09-24 |
Pelicans -3 v. Lakers |
|
122-139 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
Pelicans/Lakers 10:40: Lakers off a losing effort last night at home vs Denver. Denver worked them late with a clinic-like performance in the final two minutes. Lakers' veterans James and Davis gassed while the supporting cast cooled off. I see more late collapse here in the second of back-to-backs; after all, they're 1-5 ATS in that role. Pelicans are starting to gel on both ends of the floor as Williamson taking over a strong defensive presence. Pelicans have the younger and fresher legs tonight after having day off yesterday. Pelicans won here vs the Clippers a few nights ago and should deliver again on this floor.
|
02-08-24 |
Nuggets -3 v. Lakers |
|
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
02-08-24 |
Arizona v. Utah +6 |
|
105-99 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
Arizona/Utah 8:00: Revenge game for the Utes, after their 92-73 loss at Arizona January 6th. Now, Utah has them on their home floor where they are 12-0 this season. 'Cats just 2-3 SU on the PAC 12 road. And having 7'1" Lovering back in the fray gives that extra depth behind Carlson. Moreover, Devion Smith, who averages 11.3 PPG, has given Utah a boost since inserted in the starting lineup following Arizona. We'll take the points.
|
02-07-24 |
UCLA +3.5 v. Stanford |
|
82-74 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
02-07-24 |
Creighton -2 v. Providence |
|
87-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
02-05-24 |
Kansas -5 v. Kansas State |
|
70-75 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
Kansas/Kansas State 9:00: These local rivals going in the opposite direction. Kansas State on a four-game losing skid while the Jayhawks are heating up off two impressive wins and three straight covers. Jayhawks were quite impressive against top tier Houston. They dominated that game from wire-to-wire by working Houston's normal lock down defense. Kansas State is ranked 99th in the nation defensively in terms of points allowed. The efficient well-oiled machine-like Jayhawks should continue their offensive surge tonight.
|
02-05-24 |
Miami-FL +5.5 v. Virginia |
|
38-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 59 m |
Show
|
Miami Fla/Virginia 7:00: Miami Fla is on the bubble and needs a signature win to impress the NCAA Committee. The 'Canes have had injury issues almost all season but now starting to get healthy. They have their work cut out for them against the always defensive dominant Cavaliers; however, look for a competitive fight tonight!
|
02-04-24 |
Clippers v. Heat +4.5 |
|
103-95 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 34 m |
Show
|
|
02-03-24 |
Florida State -5 v. Louisville |
|
92-101 |
Loss |
-114 |
18 h 7 m |
Show
|
Florida State/Louisville 8:00: Louisville's HC Payne has brought lots of namesake "pain" to the program since he became coach. Cards mired at the bottom of the ACC once again and should yield to a stewing Florida State team that lost January 27th to UNC. Fla State is 6-1 ATS in this series and play well on the road (4-1 ATS). Seminoles deliver.
|
02-03-24 |
Auburn v. Ole Miss +3.5 |
|
91-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
Auburn/Ole Miss 6:00: Chris Beard, who guided Texas Tech to the National Championship in 2019, is now turning around Ole Miss after a dismal era under Kermit Davis. The Rebels are 13-0 at home under Beard and looking to avenge the 82-59 blowout loss to Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers a few weeks back. Rebels have cleaned up their game since winning three straight since that blowout. We'll ride the Rebels in this revenge affair.
|
02-03-24 |
Houston v. Kansas +1.5 |
|
65-78 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
Houston/Kansas 4:00: Kelvin Sampson is one of the great coaches in college basketball and he's continuing to keep Houston at an elite level; however, Allen Fieldhouse has been one of the strongest venues in college basketball. Bill Self is an elite coach himself, and he has another dominant Jayhawks' team. If Houston has a weakness, they've shown a bit of vulnerability on the road this season at Iowa State and UCF. Offense can sometimes get stagnant. Kansas' McCullar (knee bruise) should be good to go along with his mates. Kansas the call.
|
02-03-24 |
Connecticut v. St. John's +3.5 |
|
77-64 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
U Conn/St. John's Noon: Pitino and Hurley rivalry percolating after U Conn edged St. John's 59-65 December 3rd at U Conn. This one will be played at MSG and Pitino is not happy about it since U Conn has plenty of traveling fans. The incumbent champ is gritting out games on a nine-game win streak while the Red Storm has lost 4 of their last 5 SU. But don't count out Pitino's bunch. The legendary coach will have his men prepared for battle here. Pitino is a dangerous 14-5 ATS in his last 19 same season revenge games throughout his illustrious career. This series has been closely contested and should be another tight finish.
|
02-01-24 |
Wisconsin v. Nebraska |
|
72-80 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
02-01-24 |
Pacers v. Knicks -2.5 |
|
105-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
Pacers/Knicks 7:40: Knicks on fire since acquiring Anunoby. They've gone 14-2 SU/13-3 ATS, including an 8-0 run since the trade. He has an elbow issue and is a game-time-decision but leaning on playing. I don't think he'll want to miss a crack at his former teammate Siakam (day to day). The Knicks are dinged up with Randle (shoulder) out but so are the Pacers. Knicks have been able to continue their run with the next man up mentality. They're well coached and ready. Brunson has been the catalyst of the team and makes everyone around him better. We'll look for NY to avenge their 140-126 December 30th loss.
|
01-31-24 |
Kings +1.5 v. Heat |
|
106-115 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
01-31-24 |
Alabama v. Georgia +6.5 |
|
85-76 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
01-29-24 |
Bucks v. Nuggets -3.5 |
|
107-113 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
01-29-24 |
Duke v. Virginia Tech +3.5 |
|
77-67 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
Duke/Virginia Tech 7:00: Duke's had a nice run (9-1 SU) but slugged by wins in 3 of last 4 going 3-1 SU/0-4 ATS. VT is no easy out. Hokies have beaten them in Blacksburg 5 of the last 6 times. And VT is playing a good stretch of ball here (3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS). The Hokies have a bit more on floor experience than the Blue Devils; after all, only Filipowski and freshman McCain have started every game. With North Carolina on deck for Duke, this could be a Duke trap. VT still controls a strong home floor where they've won 10 of 11 SU. Only loss was a hard-fought loss to Miami Florida. Take the points with Virginia Tech.
|
01-28-24 |
Lions +7.5 v. 49ers |
|
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 30 m |
Show
|
Lions/49ers 6:30: Over the last month, a concern for the 49ers has been effectively stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB. Last week, they did neither. Aaron Jones ran for 103 yards on 18 carries. 49ers run-stop-unit has allowed 100+ rush yards in 4 of past 5 games. And despite having two of the supposed best bookends in the NFL in Bosa and Young, they were unable to sack Love. Detroit's run game is starting to click with downhill Montgomery and shifty fast Gibbs. And Goff, who has been repeatedly bashed by pundits that he struggles vs the blitz, has completed 75% of his passes in the playoffs with 0 turnovers. Sure, only a couple of explosive plays but TB defense zone blitzed keeping safeties high enabling Goff to set quick on his hot reads to St. Brown and LaPorta. SF defense has been one of the lowest blitzing teams in the NFL primarily counting on their front 4 to get to the QB; however, if it plays out like last week, Goff and company should have a big night. Defensively, Lions' give up explosive plays and that's a concern, especially with all the 49ers' weapons, including Samuel (probable). The good news is the Lions' defense has been opportunistic making plays and forcing turnovers. We'll look for them to hang around.
|
01-28-24 |
Chiefs +4.5 v. Ravens |
Top |
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 58 m |
Show
|
Chiefs/Ravens 3:00: Ravens surely seem like world beaters now. I was on them last week vs Houston but I'm fading them here. Sure, KC offense not as explosive as it was the past few years but an improved defense has created a good balance. Like I said last week when I was on KC (+2') vs Buffalo, Spagnuolo does a nice job scheming and preparing his unit. He'll find a way to limit Lamar Jackon's effectiveness. Offensively, KC won't have their G Thuney (pec) but his replacement - Allegretti has seen plenty of action in the trenches for KC and well respected among his peers. And Pacheco is good to go. As for Mahomes, few teams limit him this time of year; after all, he's 13-3 as a playoff starter. His teammates seem to rally around him in big games as exhibited by Rice two weeks ago and even Valdes-Scantling last week. And he's 3-1 vs Lamar Jackson. Jackson will be this year's MVP but as Ric Flair said, "To be the man, you got to beat the man." I'll side with Mahomes and the Chiefs.
|
01-27-24 |
Auburn -2.5 v. Mississippi State |
|
58-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
Auburn/Mississippi State 3:30: Bruce Pearl's bunch had Alabama on the ropes on Wednesday but couldn't close it out. Look for the #8 Tigers to bounce back strong here. They've played well on the SEC road with easy wins at Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Talent level well beyond what Mississippi State brings to the floor. Auburn has won 4 straight in this series, including 3-1 ATS. We'll back Auburn here.
|
01-27-24 |
Villanova v. Butler -1 |
|
81-88 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 46 m |
Show
|
Villanova/Butler 3:00: Hinkle Fieldhouse a strong home venue for the Bulldogs and Thad Matta continues the tradition in his second stint with Butler. Bulldogs are coming off a blowout win at Georgetown Wednesday night. Matta has his guys playing well on both ends of the floor. Meanwhile, Villanova is coming off getting swept by St. John's in the season series. The Wildcats haven't been the same since Jay Wright left. Neptune's bunch on a 1-4 slide. Butler delivers.
|
01-27-24 |
Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Miami-FL |
|
68-72 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 24 m |
Show
|
Pittsburgh/Miami Florida 2:15: I don't like going against Larranaga, but he's got multiple guys banged up or can't stay on the floor. Meanwhile, Panthers have won 3 straight on the road. They're getting great work from freshmen backcourt of Carrington and Lowe. And leading scorer Hinson is lighting it up from the perimeter. We'll grab the points with the road strong Panthers.
|
01-27-24 |
Georgia +7.5 v. Florida |
|
98-102 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
Georgia/Florida Noon: Bulldogs playing well on the road and we're getting good value with them here. Georgia's HC Mike White, who left unceremoniously Florida in 2022, will have his boys well prepared to stick it to his old team. He's got his guys playing hard. Gators' defense suspect and should leave the door open for a Bulldogs cover here. Georgia's covered 5 straight at Florida and we'll look for the 6th to be a charm here.
|
01-26-24 |
Thunder +110 v. Pelicans |
|
107-83 |
Win
|
110 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
01-25-24 |
Kings v. Warriors +2.5 |
|
134-133 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
Kings/Warriors 10:00: Golden State has won this series SU in 6 of the last 8 games. Sacramento won the most recent game 124-123 November 23rd in Sacramento. Revenge is a motivator here as well as heavy hearts (Milojevic death) in a carry-over from yesterday's big win over Atlanta following an extended layoff (1st game in 9 days). And now that Draymond Green is back in action and in the flow of things since January 15th, the Warriors should be able to step up their game a notch. Looney and Green usually out muscle Sabonis in this matchup. And the Warriors are catching Fox and company not at their shooting best - on a 1-4 SU slide. We'll back Golden State here.
|
01-25-24 |
SMU -1 v. North Texas |
|
66-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
|
01-23-24 |
Lakers v. Clippers -9.5 |
|
116-127 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
Lakers/Clippers 10:00: Both of these teams on an extended road trip after this game on account of the arena used for Grammy Awards. Clippers seem to have the greater urgency now. They're on an 8-2 ATS run as Harden has found his place in the Clippers loaded lineup. And now that Zubac is out, HC Lue is going with a smaller lineup and it should continue to produce the desired result. Revenge seeking Westbrook, who is now getting extended minutes, is using his athleticism to ignite more up-tempo full court ball; consequently, Lakers' AD will tire, especially with LeBron James (ankle) tonight. After a two-game slide in this series, we'll look for the Clippers to return to recent domination vs Lakers. Lay the points.
|
01-23-24 |
Knicks -3.5 v. Nets |
|
108-103 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
Knicks/Nets 7:30: Knicks have been rocking since acquiring Anunoby. They're 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS since acquiring him. And 7 of those 9 wins were by double digits. Meanwhile, Brooklyn on a 2-8 slide. Last time these teams met (December 20th), Knicks delivered a 121-102 beatdown. NY won the last 3 in this series by a combined 61 points. We'll stay on surging Knicks here.
|
01-22-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs +3.5 |
|
119-110 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
Boston/Dallas 8:40: Right now, Boston a better team but the scheduling inadvertent scheduling advantage to Dallas should cost them. Dallas has been off since they lost to the Lakers on the 17th. In that game, the 3-point shooting was atrocious as Doncic was trying to get his legs back after injury. Doncic, Irving and Hardaway Jr. were a combined 3 of 21 from behind the arc. Dallas has been solid off losses this year (9-5 ATS). They've alternated wins and losses since January 7th. On the flip side, Boston is playing in their 3rd game in 4 days, going into this one unrested. And depth should be an issue late with Horford and Holiday listed as day-to-day. We'll look for them to suck wind late as the Mavericks deliver.
|
01-21-24 |
Chiefs +3 v. Bills |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
66 h 54 m |
Show
|
Chiefs/Bills 6:30: Bills got the better of the Chiefs in Week 14. Not a big surprise considering the Bills are 3-1 in their last 4 regular season games vs KC; however, Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs, when it counts most, vs Buffalo. And I get the Bills are ultra hungry, playing good football now, and have the home field advantage. The problem here is some secondary issues with a thinning secondary and a top LB - Bernard (84 tackles, 6' sacks, 3 INTs) hobbling with a sprained ankle. Remember, he was carted off against Pittsburgh, allowing the Steelers to ignite their run game. Sure, the Bills are deep on the defensive front, but the second level and backend are thin. Who better to exploit those weaknesses than Andy Reid. Look for RB Pacheco to set the tone. And we all know by now what Mahomes brings to any football field this time of year. With the Bills' defense allowing a generous 4.6 YPC (28th), KC should lean on their strong offensive line to grind out the yards with Mahomes working his magic on play action with Rice and Kelce. On the other hand, KC defense, which has usually taken a back seat to the offense in production in the Mahomes era, leads the way with the #2 defense in the league in yards and points allowed! And with LB Bolton and DT Chris Jones healthy, they're poised to stop the emerging run game with Cook. And throw in the post season prep by one of the game's best DCs - Spagnuolo - this time of year, and KC is in good shape to win this one.
|