03-09-23 |
West Virginia +4.5 v. Kansas |
|
61-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
West Virginia/Kansas 3:00: Kansas already secured top seeding in NCAA Tournament, will have to face a hot WV team that has covered 5 straight, including in yesterday's Big12 Tournament with a solid win over Texas Tech. Huggins has the Mounties playing the inspired defense he's been teaching for years. Bill Self (illness) won't be controlling the bench today and that's a big loss. West Virginia is on the bubble for NCAA Tournament participation and will certainly attain an at large bid with a win here. Take West Virginia
|
03-09-23 |
George Mason +5.5 v. St. Louis |
|
54-82 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
George Mason/St. Louis 2:00: St. Louis not having its dominating defensive presence this year should open the door for the Patriots to cover. Billikens not capitalizing on takeaways this season as guard play has been suspect with a -1.6-turnover margin. GM has an inside presence and solid on the defensive boards (19th in nation). They traded blow for blow with St. Louis in St. Louis on January 11th. On this neutral floor in NY, we'll grab the Patriots.
|
03-08-23 |
Oklahoma +2 v. Oklahoma State |
|
49-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 46 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma State/Oklahoma 9:30: Analysis to follow...
|
03-08-23 |
Ole Miss v. South Carolina +6.5 |
|
67-61 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 12 m |
Show
|
Ole Miss/South Carolina 7:00: Analysis to follow...
|
03-08-23 |
Georgia Tech +7.5 v. Pittsburgh |
|
81-89 |
Loss |
-115 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
Georgia Tech/Pittsburgh 2:30: Analysis to follow...
|
03-07-23 |
Notre Dame +7.5 v. Virginia Tech |
|
64-67 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
ND/Virginia Tech 7:00: Mike Brey's swan song for ND and we'll ride him and his crew here. He's been a good coach for the Irish and his men won't go down without a fight. Sure, they didn't win on the road all season; however, they'll be fine on the neutral floor in Greensboro. Irish lost 11 games by single digits including five one possession defeats. They got swept in the regular season series but should be competitive here. VT perimeter sizzle will not be sustainable here. We'll grab the points.
|
03-07-23 |
Georgia Tech -1.5 v. Florida State |
|
61-60 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
|
Georgia Tech/Florida State 2:00: GT on a great 8-0 ATS tear down the stretch. The Engineers took a while to get their perimeter game cranking and that is what led to their winning run. Seminoles, on the other hand, can be dangerous but their inconsistencies, especially defensively rear their ugly heads too much. And they don't have enough offense to outshoot opponents. Yellowjackets the call.
|
03-06-23 |
BYU +7.5 v. St. Mary's |
|
69-76 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
BYU/St. Mary's 9:00: BYU is playing for its NCAA Tournament life now; therefore, little margin for error. St. Mary's is most likely going to the Big Dance and has already swept the regular season series. between these two. BYU plays the Gaels tough - covering six straight in series. We'll grab the hungry Cougars.
|
03-05-23 |
Army +12 v. Colgate |
|
74-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
03-05-23 |
Houston v. Memphis +6 |
|
67-65 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
Houston/Memphis Noon: Memphis has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series. Sure, Houston is worthy of that #1 ranking with a stifling defense (#2 in nation), and an efficient offense; however, Memphis has been a thorn in the side of Houston, especially on this floor at FedEx Forum. Memphis lost only one game on this floor this year with a 1-point loss in OT to Tulane. And keep in mind that Hardaway's bunch traded punches with Alabama and beat Texas A&M outright here. Take the points!
|
03-04-23 |
Tennessee v. Auburn -1.5 |
|
70-79 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
Tennessee/Auburn 2:00: Both teams without some key players here; however, Tennessee's loss of Zeigler is one that takes notice. Zeigler not only averaged 10.3 PPG and 5.4 APG, but extremely valuable on the defensive end with 59 steals. His leadership and defensive prowess is a major blow to a team playing into revenge on the road against a hungry Auburn team that's in a desperation mode for a big win in an attempt for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Look for Bruce Pearl to have Auburn deliver the win here.
|
03-04-23 |
Georgia v. South Carolina +1.5 |
|
55-61 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
Georgia/South Carolina 1:00: Two of the bottom feeders of the SEC but like the Gamecocks here. SC has been competitive over their last 10 games going 7-3 ATS while the Bulldogs are a money burning 1-9 ATS. SC looking to avenge the January 28th OT loss at Georgia. Bulldogs defense has been abysmal on the road - allowing 11 PPG more than they do at home. That should open the door for the offensively challenged Gamecocks to deliver the win here. SC the call.
|
03-04-23 |
Alabama v. Texas A&M -1.5 |
|
61-67 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
Alabama/Texas A&M Noon: Alabama living on the edge over their last three games. They've managed to come from behind to eke out victories down the stretch including 2 of last 3 in OT. Over that span, they've struggled from three-point range going 11 of 53 (28%). A&M presents a strong home floor and on a 7-1 ATS tear. The Aggies are 4-0 SU and won 6 of their last 8 SU on this floor vs Alabama. Buzz Williams has them well prepared and we'll grab A&M here.
|
03-04-23 |
Iowa State v. Baylor -7.5 |
|
73-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
Iowa State/Baylor Noon: ISU looked like a lock for the NCAA Tournament early in the season with wins over Texas, TCU, OK and Baylor. Since January 21st though, they've gone on a dismal 3-7 SU/2-10 ATS slide. And one of their top scorers - Grill - dismissed from the team. Grill had 18 points on December 31st win over Baylor at Iowa State. The Cyclones are not the same team on the road as they struggle to score (62 PPG) while less defensive (allow 69 PPG). Meanwhile, Baylor, despite their injury woes, is coming off two solid wins and should get sweet revenge here.
|
03-03-23 |
Wolves -1 v. Lakers |
|
110-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
03-02-23 |
Michigan v. Illinois UNDER 144.5 |
|
87-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
Michigan/Illinois 7:00: Heavy "under" trends on both sides. Illinois ranks 334th in the nation from 3-point range at a paltry 31%; moreover, over their last 3 games, they've shot a measly 25.8% from downtown. Michigan is defensively solid, including guarding the perimeter - allowing 32.1%. On the other hand, Illinois is a strong defensive team and has held opponents to just 60.5 PPG on this floor this season. Illinois may be a #9 NCAA Tournament seed heading into this game while Michigan is on the bubble. Both teams need a win here to solidify an at large bid. Look for the defensive intensity to increase. We'll give the edge to Michigan in a lower scoring game. "Under" the call.
|
03-02-23 |
Michigan +5 v. Illinois |
|
87-91 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
03-01-23 |
Texas v. TCU -2 |
|
73-75 |
Push |
0 |
20 h 59 m |
Show
|
Texas/TCU 9:00: Last time these teams met (January), the Longhorns climbed back from a 13-point deficit to upend the Horned Frogs 79-75. That game was in Austin. On the road, the Longhorns struggled on a 1-4 ATS slide. Now that Mike Miles is back in the fray for TCU, look for TCU to deliver the goods here.
|
03-01-23 |
Massachusetts v. Duquesne -10 |
|
79-88 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 46 m |
Show
|
Massachusetts/Duquesne 7:00: U Mass upset Duquesne back on January 28th in Massachusetts. They've gone 1-6 SU/ATS since. Duquesne has enjoyed a solid resurgence in their basketball program under form University of Akron HC Dambrot. They're coming off a disappointing home loss to Davidson. Dukes have responded well off losses (6-1 ATS) and 4-0 ATS on Wednesday. Look for the Dukes to get it together back on their home floor in an easy double-digit win.
|
02-28-23 |
Marquette v. Butler +8 |
|
72-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 8 m |
Show
|
Marquette/Butler 6:30: Tonight, Marquette looks to clinch the Big East title but it won't be easy. Butler, playing with same season revenge, is competitive under competent veteran coach Thad Matta. Butler has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and 10-3 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. Hinkle Fieldhouse no easy place to play for road teams. Matta established a strong home court there in his first stint with the Bulldogs and he's holding up the trend in his second. Marquette just 1-4 ATS off a SU win and giving a bit too many points here. And C Bates could be back tonight; if not, Jalen Thomas holding the fort well. Butler the call.
|
02-27-23 |
Baylor -1 v. Oklahoma State |
|
74-68 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
Baylor/Oklahoma State 9:00: Okie State trending in wrong direction at wrong time. Cowboys looked to be a lock in the NCAA Tournament field after huge win at Iowa State February 11th; however, after four straight losses, they find themselves on the bubble. It won't get easier tonight. Baylor gaining momentum off big win over Texas. George (ankle) questionable for this game but Bonner proved he is worthy of filling the void. Bears 5-1 ATS on Mondays and road team in this series 15-5-2 ATS. Bears the call.
|
02-26-23 |
Manhattan +9 v. Quinnipiac |
|
72-70 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 23 m |
Show
|
Manhattan/Quinnipiac 2:00: Manhattan has been a spread winner this season. They're not a talented team but they play hard. They actually play better on the road (5-1 ATS run). They're coming off a blowout home loss but usually respond well after that; as a matter of fact, they're 4-0-1 ATS off a loss of 20+. They've covered 5 of their last 6 off a SU loss and have been money on Sunday at 5-1 ATS. Road team in this series is 4-0 ATS and look for the Jaspers to hang tight.
|
02-25-23 |
Texas v. Baylor -3.5 |
|
72-81 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
Texas/Baylor 2:00: Baylor off 2 road losses to Kansas and Kansas State. Today, they're back home looking to avenge their January 30th loss at Texas. The Bears should have it back together against a Longhorns squad that's 3-9 ATS on the road vs a home team with winning % above .600. With the favorite in this series at 6-0 ATS, Baylor the call.
|
02-25-23 |
Louisville v. Georgia Tech -5 |
Top |
67-83 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 3 m |
Show
|
Louisville/Georgia Tech 2:00: Both of these conference bottom feeders starting to cover down the stretch of the season. Cardinals on a 4-0 ATS run while GT has covered 5 straight. Tech is looking to avenge its February 1st loss and should do it here. Louisville has been pathetic defensively on the road - allowing 82 PPG. And although GT is surely no offensive juggernaut, they should pull away late from the pitiful Cardinals. GT's Pastner doesn't have great personnel but utilises it better than his counterpart Payne. We'll lay the points here.
|
02-25-23 |
Clemson v. NC State -5.5 |
|
96-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
Clemson/NC State Noon: Don't like how Clemson is playing on the road. They come off big wins at home and get worked on the road. February 15th, blasted FSU at home and then dropped their next game to lowly Louisville as an 11-point favorite. Inexcusable and put them on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. Sure, they rebounded well at home vs Syracuse on Wednesday but once again have to fight their demons on the road. And NC State is hot and hungry. And the Wolfpack, which got ambushed at Clemson back on December 30th, is looking for revenge and should deliver.
|
02-23-23 |
Memphis -2 v. Wichita State |
|
83-78 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
02-23-23 |
Penn State +3 v. Ohio State |
|
75-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
02-22-23 |
Wake Forest +6.5 v. NC State |
|
74-90 |
Loss |
-113 |
20 h 6 m |
Show
|
WF/NC State 9:00: WF has shooters who can score consistently. They keep games close on the road as exhibited by their 4-1 ATS mark on the road vs teams above .600. Deacons will be looking to avenge earlier season 79-77 loss at home on January 28th. However, Demon Deacons were without Frank Clark who is working his way back in condition. He's a huge compliment to DJ Burns. WF is coming off competitive loss to Miami and desperately need a signature win if they have aspirations for postseason play. WF 11-5 ATS off a SU loss while NC State a money burning 9-23 ATS off a SU win. WF the call.
|
02-21-23 |
Miami-FL +2 v. Virginia Tech |
|
76-70 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 5 m |
Show
|
Miami Fla/Virginia Tech 7:00: Tech showing a level of inconsistency alternating wins and losses since January 28th. Meanwhile, Hurricanes on a nice six game winning streak starting with their home win over Virginia Tech. Tech starting to crack down defensively but can't keep pace with the athletic Hurricanes. Pack and Wong lighting it up. 'Canes 24-8 ATS as a traveler against a home team with winning percentage above .600. And they're 4-0 ATS off a 90+ point game. Miami Florida the call.
|
02-21-23 |
Tennessee v. Texas A&M -1 |
|
63-68 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 41 m |
Show
|
Tennessee/Texas A&M 7:00: These teams going into the opposite direction. Tennessee has lost 3 of their last 4 games while the Aggies are undefeated in February. Aggies going into this one still hungry; after all, they're seeking triple revenge while catching the struggling Vols at the right time. Aggies have them on their dominant home floor tonight. Look for Buzz Williams' boys to get er done.
|
02-20-23 |
Kansas +2.5 v. TCU |
|
63-58 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
|
Kansas/TCU 9:00: Miles' return made a huge difference for TCU as the Horned Frogs blew by Oklahoma State Saturday. In the meantime, Kansas overcame a double-digit deficit vs Baylor with a dominant second half to cruise to victory. Kansas looking to avenge its earlier season home loss to TCU and should deliver. TCU sports a 2-6 record following a 100 or more-point performance. And they're an underwhelming 4-9 ATS on Mondays. Self is revving up his Jayhawks for post-season play on a 4-0 ATS run. Road team in this series is 7-2 ATS and the dog is 4-1 ATS. Kansas the call.
|
02-19-23 |
Memphis +14 v. Houston |
Top |
64-72 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
Memphis/Houston 3:00: Memphis has been a major thorn in the side of Houston. Tigers have covered 7 of last 8 in this series. Tigers pumped up to avenge conference tournament loss last March. We'll look for the Tigers to stick around here.
|
02-19-23 |
Georgetown v. Butler -5 |
|
68-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 36 m |
Show
|
Georgetown/Butler 3:00: Hinkle Fieldhouse not an easy place to play for any team. Georgetown, the bottom feeder of the Big East, will find a way to lose again. Butler won at Georgetown New Year's Day and should deliver again today.
|
02-19-23 |
Manhattan +5 v. Fairfield |
|
73-72 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
|
Manhattan/Fairfield 2:00: Manhattan not as bad as their record indicates. They've been money on the road where they are consistently competitive. They've had success vs Fairfield including an outright earlier this season. Fairfield doesn't have the offensive firepower to thrash through teams. We'll take the points with the Jaspers.
|
02-18-23 |
Villanova v. Providence -3.5 |
|
72-85 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
02-18-23 |
Baylor v. Kansas -5 |
|
71-87 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
02-18-23 |
Oklahoma +11 v. Texas |
|
83-85 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
02-18-23 |
Wake Forest v. Miami-FL -7 |
|
87-96 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
02-17-23 |
Manhattan +17.5 v. Iona |
|
60-71 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
02-16-23 |
Wizards v. Wolves OVER 235 |
|
114-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 14 m |
Show
|
Wizards/Wolves 8:10: Heavy "over" trends on this one and it being the last game before the All-Star break gives us extra value. These teams are checking out defensively and we'll look for the "over" to hit.
|
02-15-23 |
Jazz v. Grizzlies OVER 238.5 |
|
111-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
02-15-23 |
Pistons v. Celtics OVER 223.5 |
|
109-127 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
02-14-23 |
Kansas v. Oklahoma State |
|
87-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
02-12-23 |
Chiefs +2 v. Eagles |
Top |
38-35 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 58 m |
Show
|
Chiefs/Eagles 6:30: On paper, Eagles the better complete team. On the field, with the lights at their brightest, I'll go with the league MVP (Mahomes) and experienced "big game" coaching staff. Chiefs' DC Spagnuolo draws up good defensive game plans post season. He did it with the Giants and has done it well with the Chiefs. Eagles' offense very dangerous but every offense has its weakness to exploit, and Spagnuolo should find it. Andy Reid has been highly effective with additional rest and off bye weeks. Strategizing is a big part of big games and Reid is near top of the heap in that category. Eagles' defense tremendously aggressive and the best sack team since the '84 - '85 Bears. That defensive line gets up the field fast; consequently, look for the Chiefs to work a quick pass game (Kelce/Toney) and establish run game with slasher back Pacheco and newly activated Edwards-Helaire. Coaching experience in big games and proven big game winner Mahomes checks the mark for taking the points here. Chiefs the call.
|
02-11-23 |
Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -6 |
|
64-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
02-11-23 |
Alabama v. Auburn +3 |
|
77-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
02-09-23 |
Iowa v. Purdue OVER 149 |
|
73-87 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
02-08-23 |
Oklahoma +9.5 v. Baylor |
|
72-82 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
02-07-23 |
Auburn +3.5 v. Texas A&M |
|
78-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 50 m |
Show
|
Auburn/Texas A&M 7:00: Saturday, Auburn played lights out defensively by holding the Vol's to 28% from the floor; unfortunately, their shooting was atrocious: 24%/11% from floor/3 point range. Meanwhile, the Aggies are coming off a home blowout win over Georgia. Aggies haven't been good off SU wins (0-4 ATS) let alone a 20+ blowout in which they're 9-24-1 ATS. Pearl's bunch has been strong off losses at 4-0 ATS and covered 5 straight road tilts. Not much of a falloff in offensive and defensive production for the Tigers as a traveler. They're looking to avenge January 25th 79-63 loss at home. Road team is 13-4 ATS in this series. Grab the points!
|
02-06-23 |
Texas v. Kansas -3.5 |
|
80-88 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 46 m |
Show
|
Texas/Kansas 9:00: Texas hasn't missed a beat since Chris Beard was fired earlier this year. They're coming off a huge revenge win at Kansas State which surely took a lot of them in the dramatic late game comeback. Meanwhile, Bill Self's Jayhawks got worked at a strong venue in Iowa State. Self not used to being in this position this late in the season; however, if any coach can straighten his team out and step it up in February, it's Self. We'll put our money on him in this spot.
|
02-06-23 |
Duke v. Miami-FL -3.5 |
|
59-81 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 54 m |
Show
|
Duke/Miami Fla 7:00: Miami should avenge earlier season loss at Duke. Small but super athletic 'Canes very dangerous on their home floor. Duke is coming off a huge win against area rival NC. Duke a solid defensive team on paper; however, on the road allow a generous 70.3 PPG; consequently, that contributes to their 1-6 ATS road slide. Look for the Hurricanes to deliver here.
|
02-04-23 |
Oregon +1 v. Arizona State |
|
75-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
02-04-23 |
North Carolina +3.5 v. Duke |
|
57-63 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
02-04-23 |
Texas v. Kansas State +1.5 |
|
69-66 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
02-04-23 |
Florida State -5 v. Louisville |
|
81-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
Florida State/Louisville 2:00: Florida State has covered 6 straight in this series and there is no reasonable reason to fade them here. 'Noles coming off a beatdown at NC State should bounce back strong; after all, they're 8-1 ATS off a SU loss and 4-0 ATS on Saturdays. They played well in recent road tilts at Pittsburgh and ND. Louisville, the bottom feeder of the league, is offensively inept averaging 62.7 PPG. They're feeling good off a win over GT. But winning is not sustainable for this team: 8-22-1 ATS off a SU win. Take Fla State
|
02-04-23 |
Michigan State +4.5 v. Rutgers |
|
55-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
|
02-02-23 |
Wisconsin v. Ohio State -7.5 |
|
65-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
02-02-23 |
Towson +3 v. Hofstra |
|
72-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
Towson/Hofstra 7:00: Towson has gotten the best of Hofstra recently. They've won 3 straight primarily because they've beaten them on the glass. That's what Towson does. They defensively lock you down and establish great rebounding position. They're great at defense and rebounding. On the other hand, Hofstra is not! Hofstra is in the lower tier in both categories. Road team in this series is 12-4-1 ATS and we'll stay with the road strong Tigers.
|
01-30-23 |
Virginia v. Syracuse +5.5 |
|
67-62 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
01-30-23 |
Virginia v. Syracuse UNDER 132.5 |
|
67-62 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 37 m |
Show
|
|
01-29-23 |
Bengals +1.5 v. Chiefs |
|
20-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
163 h 21 m |
Show
|
Bengals/Chiefs 6:30: I've been on the Bengals in this series and not getting off them now. A few questions that need to be answered: Can Mahomes ankle hold up to allow him to get out of the pocket where he is most dangerous? And can the Bengals' offensive line allow Burrow to get the ball to his plethora of dangerous receivers? To address Mahomes ankle, don't know for sure, but for most athletes, a high ankle sprain takes a minimum of two weeks to start healing at a level where cutting, pivoting and heavy planting occurs. Mahomes is great but not Superman. He has the highest % completions of any QB in the NFL OUTSIDE THE POCKET. Look for brilliant Bengals' DC Anarumo to dial up different secondary looks, like he usually does, while instituting a few exotic blitzes to keep Mahomes in the pocket to force errant throws. On the other hand, Bengals' shell of an offensive line held up well last week vs Buffalo. Realize that was snow and snow can be forgiving for offensive linemen; however, backups to Jonah Williams and Cappa have gotten lots of reps this season and progressing well. Burrow has been the master of quick pass on three step drops. His superior processing skills, locating open receiver and delivering accurately should carry over vs a KC defensive secondary that is yielding. Respect KC DC Spagnuolo around this time of year, but Bengals' receivers Chase, Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst, RB Mixon on a different level. Bengals the call.
|
01-29-23 |
49ers v. Eagles -2 |
|
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 9 m |
Show
|
49ers/Eagles 3:00: 49ers a legitimate top 4 contender with strength across the board. And rookie QB Purdy is no weak link; however, Eagles are arguably the most complete team of the Final Four. Offensively, a machine. Versatile QB Hurts leads a well-balanced attack that can not only move the football up and down the field (#3 Total Yards) but deliver on the scoreboard (#3 PPG) with 28.1 PPG. A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith are elite receivers, Goedert is a solid TE, and 1200+ rusher Miles Sanders behind the best offensive line in the league is making a nightmare for well-respected DC DeMeco Ryans who leads the top defense in the NFL. On the other hand, 49ers' HC Shanahan most likely will lean on his running game against a mediocre Philadelphia run-stop-unit. Most likely, however, they'll have to throw, and that's when the Eagles' vulturous secondary led by Gardner-Johnson (6 INT) and Slay. What makes the secondary great is the amazing ability of Philadelphia to get to the QB; as a matter of fact, the Eagles have collected the 3rd most sacks in regular season and postseason history - 75 - only behind the '84 Bears (82) and '85 Bears (80). And we know how great those Bud Ryan defenses were! When the Eagles play to their potential, they're unbeatable. We'll grab Philly here.
|
01-28-23 |
Alabama v. Oklahoma +5.5 |
|
69-93 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
Alabama/Oklahoma 2:00: Oklahoma has hit a rough patch - losing 4 of its last 5 games - coming off blowout loss at TCU. Look for Moser to have his men motivated here. Oklahoma won this game outright as 8-point dogs back in January 2021. Alabama is rolling but overdue for a slide and it should come here. Need Sherfield to get busy after halftime. Look for his confidence to come back here.
|
01-24-23 |
Celtics +1.5 v. Heat |
|
95-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 24 m |
Show
|
|
01-23-23 |
Kansas +2.5 v. Baylor |
|
69-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
01-22-23 |
Cowboys v. 49ers -4 |
|
12-19 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 5 m |
Show
|
Cowboys/49ers 6:30: Cowboys looked good last week. But TB is a mediocre team. Dallas' QB Prescott had no pressure put on him as finding receivers in the secondary became a virtual 7 on 7 drill. Tonight, a different story vs the #1 scoring defense in the league. Bosa (18' sacks) and company will surely bring the smoke while the opportunistic secondary (#2 forcing turnovers) will force Prescott into quick decisions, which gave him trouble this season (15 INTs). Offensively, SF is well schooled under Shanahan. Purdy makes good decisions and has a strong supporting cast on the line and in skill positions. Samuel, McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk make life really good for QBs. SF had an extra prep day, and Shanahan knows how to use it. McCarthy on the other hand, 2-5 ATS off a win of 14+ and 4-9 ATS on a short week. Look for McCarthy to go 0-4 ATS vs SF.
|
01-22-23 |
Bengals +6 v. Bills |
|
27-10 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 35 m |
Show
|
Bills/Bengals 3:00: Bengals' offensive line missing key bodies as this line is now to +6. Burrow dealt with it last year, sacked the most of anyone in the NFL and still led his team to a cover in the Super Bowl (+3'). Buffalo's defense hasn't been that great this year and Burrow will surely mix in quick pass to his athletic receiving corps (Chase, Higgins, TE Hurst, Boyd, RB Mixon). Bengals dangerous dog and I'm riding them here.
|
01-21-23 |
Giants v. Eagles -7 |
|
7-38 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 1 m |
Show
|
Giants/Eagles 8:15: On the Giants last week but will fade them here. Daniel Jones was phenomenal vs a soft Vikings' defense but the Eagles' defense is a whole different animal. Philadelphia has a front four that has collectively 40 sacks! That means they can drop 7 into coverage and still get to the QB. And now that Gardner-Johnson is healthy, he and "Big Play" Slay can do lots of damage on the back-end vs an average Giants' receiving corps with overachieving receiver Hodgens. Offensively, when the Eagles get the run game going behind the best offensive line in the league, they're hard to stop. And throw in matchup nightmare - A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith off play action or RPOs, and that spells more trouble. Sure, Giants have Adoree Jackson healthy and he did well against Justin Jefferson last week in the second half, but tough matchup for the rest of the Giants' secondary. Eagles pretty solid in the Divisional Round at 5-0 and we'll ride them here.
|
01-21-23 |
Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 |
|
20-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 20 m |
Show
|
Jaguars/Chiefs 4:30: Great season for Pederson and his Jaguars. Pulled off a miracle last week but unlikely here. KC is well rested, healthy, and Reid is a master coming off an additional week of prep at an astounding 27-4. They're 3-0 in the Divisional Round off a bye. Chiefs not good as a home favorite during regular season but 6-2 ATS at home in the playoffs. November 13th, the Chiefs lost two fumbles and still won 27-17. Chiefs' DC Spagnuolo usually makes life miserable for opposing QBs in the playoffs. Chiefs have healthy linemen Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Carols Dunlap to wreak havoc on Lawrence while his secondary disguises coverages well. On the flip end, lots of receiving firepower at Mahomes' disposal, including TE Kelce, WR Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and RB Pacheco. Jag's defense surrendered a generous 1,087 receiving yards to TEs this season with 13.1 yards per reception. That's 3rd worst in the NFL. Kelce should have a big game. We'll lay the wood here.
|
01-18-23 |
Oklahoma +2.5 v. Oklahoma State |
|
56-72 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 0 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma/Oklahoma State 9:00: Cowboys have lost 3 of their last 4 conference games and really struggling offensively. No consistent step up guy for Cowboys. Sometimes it's Boone, sometimes Thompson, sometimes Anderson. The offensively challenged Cowboys should be stifled by Moser's always tough defense. Oklahoma, offensively challenged itself, but has that playmaker in Sherfield. Edge to visiting team here which sports a 7-1 ATS mark on the road vs winning teams.
|
01-17-23 |
Creighton v. Butler +7.5 |
|
73-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
01-16-23 |
Cowboys v. Bucs +3 |
|
31-14 |
Loss |
-120 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
Cowboys/Bucs 8:15: All the pressure in this game on Cowboys. And by now, everyone is aware of the futility the Cowboys bring to the post season, including last year's debacle at home against SF. Can't trust them laying points on the road in big games. Bowles did a great job stifling the Cowboys in Week 1. He has the secondary, great LB Corps and solid defensive line to give Prescott and company trouble again. TB surely underachieved this season and their offensive line is a concern vs the blitz happy Cowboys. But Brady, 7-0 vs Dallas, is battle tested and thrives in these games. He'll find a way to get the ball to Evans, Godwin and Fournette. Prescott has yet to prove he's a prime-time player in a big game. McCarthy is 0-2 SU vs Bowles. TB 8-0 as a home dog on MNF and 6-1 ATS on MNF vs a non-division opponent. We'll take the points.
|
01-15-23 |
Ravens v. Bengals -8.5 |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 5 m |
Show
|
Ravens/Bengals 8:15: A little pricey at first glance for the Bengals here; after all, Baltimore is dangerous on the road in the playoffs under Harbaugh; however, at a closer look, with Lamar Jackson out, and backup Huntley laboring with a sore shoulder, Bengals' respectable secondary can squat on a lot of the short routes that are anticipated. The Bengals do have a solid run stop unit (7th in the league). And now that confident Joe Burrow is no longer leading the league in sacks, like last year, he's even more dangerous. Like Baltimore's defense, especially with the addition of MLB R. Smith, but because of the lack of offense, don't believe they can hold up for long and trade points with the Bengals for the duration. Bengals went on that magical run last year, mostly as a dog, including covering in the Super Bowl. They're 5-0-1 ATS in January and now in the favorite role and deservedly so here. We'll lay the wood.
|
01-15-23 |
Giants +3 v. Vikings |
|
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 28 m |
Show
|
Giants/Vikings 4:40: In the Christmas Eve game, Giants got behind but didn't panic. They stuck to the game plan and gradually wore down the Minnesota defense that allowed them back in that game. Vikings 31st in yards allowed, 31st in pass yards allowed and 28th in points scored. Giants lost that game on a 61 yard field goal in the last seconds. They feel confident going into this one; after all, they're healthy as a team. Amazing transformation of Daniel Jones. A testament on what a coach (Daboll) can do for a young struggling QB. We see the same thing in Jacksonville with Pederson and Lawrence. Jones sports a 15/5 TD/INT ratio and will most likely be contract extended in offseason. His 2nd and 3rd receivers: Hodgins and Richie James surprisingly torched the Vikings' secondary. Even perennial All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson had a hard time guarding Hodgins. And Barkley should once again set the tone for Daniel Jones to operate efficiently. Giants are 7-0 ATS off a SU loss and covered 4 straight on the road. Vikings lack of defense in second half should allow the hard fighting Giants to stick around again.
|
01-15-23 |
Dolphins v. Bills -13.5 |
|
31-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 6 m |
Show
|
Dolphins/Bills 1:05: Without question, Hill and Waddle are perhaps the most dangerous wide receiver tandem in the league; however, not confident that 3rd string Skylar Thompson can deliver. Thompson sports a poor 27.3 QBR with 1 TD pass and 3 INTs to his credit. He'll have to operate without leading rusher Mostert (broken thumb) who ran roughshod over the Bills December 17th. And the Dolphins' offensive line is thinning out with three noteworthy linemen having multiple injuries. Bills' top tier defense should make the needed adjustments. And offensively, it's a matter of time before Josh Allen and company shred the overworked secondary. Buffalo the call.
|
01-14-23 |
Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5 |
|
30-31 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 40 m |
Show
|
Chargers/Jaguars 8:15: Jaguars finished red hot down the stretch on a 5-0 run. Trevor Lawrence made significant strides under first year HC Pederson. Pederson controls a Super Bowl ring on his finger (2017 Eagles) and the Jaguars are in good hands with him. And just when the Chargers' defense was making strides (strong against Miami, Tennessee, Indianapolis and the Rams), they fell off production the final week vs Denver. Offensively, losing Mike Williams (fractured back) is a significant loss. He's a matchup nightmare when healthy. Chargers should be more competitive than they were in Week 3 when Jacksonville ran all over them for 157 yards rushing and controlled the clock for 17 1/2 minutes more! Like the Jaguars opportunistic defense (26 turnovers forced) and we'll stay on the Jaguars here.
|
01-14-23 |
Chargers v. Jaguars OVER 47 |
|
30-31 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 23 m |
Show
|
Chargers/Jaguars 8:15: Jaguars' offense is cooking under Lawrence and don't believe the Chargers' defense can slow them down here. At the same time, Herbert may be without matchup nightmare WR Williams (back) but he's an elite QB who makes good receivers even better. Palmer, Carter and TE Everett have elevated their game this season. And Ekeler and Keenan Allen are outstanding go-to weapons. Don't see Jaguars shutting them down like in Game 3. Staley 5-1 O/U w/ revenge. "Over" the call.
|
01-14-23 |
Seahawks +10 v. 49ers |
|
23-41 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 35 m |
Show
|
Seahawks/49ers 4:35: 49ers coming into this game hot on an 8-2 ATS run. Defensively, they're stifling, and the offense is cooking with Deebo Samuel back in the fray today. Seahawks snuck in the playoffs with help from the Lions beating GB. Nevertheless, Seattle no easy out. They swept this series last year, and sport a 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 vs SF. They're seeking double revenge from this season's regular season sweep. Pete Carrol a dangerous 11-3 ATS as a dog vs a greater than .500 division opponent. Seahawks figure it out and keep this one tight.
|
01-13-23 |
Yale +2.5 v. Cornell |
|
82-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 46 m |
Show
|
Yale/Cornell 5:00: Not convinced Cornell is the better team here despite their record and home dominance. They're flawed defensively (280th) and not a good rebounding team. Yale plays sound defense (8th in the nation) and a respectable scoring team with good shot selection at 47.4%. Yale pounds the glass hard with Knowling and Jarvis. Yale has a good history of winning on Fridays and has done well at this arena. They're 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road tilts. We'll grab the Bulldogs here.
|
01-12-23 |
Utah +12.5 v. UCLA |
|
49-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
01-11-23 |
Mississippi State v. Georgia +2.5 |
|
50-58 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 30 m |
Show
|
Mississippi/Georgia 6:30: Analysis to follow...
|
01-10-23 |
Oklahoma +10 v. Kansas |
|
75-79 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
01-09-23 |
TCU +13 v. Georgia |
|
7-65 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 49 m |
Show
|
TCU/Georgia 7:30: Lots of early action on TCU with the early line but the line hasn't softened as smart money going on Georgia. Smart money not always winning money and I think that applies here. TCU's Sonny Dykes has done an amazing job with the offense this year considering his QB Duggan was the backup after Chandler Morris went down with a knee injury in Game 1 vs Colorado. Duggan filled in like a champ and even finished as a Heisman Finalist. He also has a tremendous supporting cast with one of the best offensive lines in the nation as proven in the Semifinals vs the top defense in the nation. Moreover, even with their 1000+ rusher Kendre Miller going down in the game, reserve Demercado stepped in to rush for 150+ yards behind the mammoth (6'5" 315 lb. average) offensive line! Georgia's run stop unit very strong lead by future NFL top draft choice Jalen Carter; however, he was gassed in that OSU game and TCU has a similar explosive offense with quality depth. Georgia believes their top cover guy Ringo can matchup with matchup nightmare Quentin Johnston, yet no one has stopped him yet. Horned Frogs also have Jaye Barber who could emerge as a go to option if Johnston is bracketed. And the Georgia secondary has given up tons of passing yardage in the SEC Title game (502) and toasted in the Semi-Finals. Defensively, TCU's 3-3-5 scheme is not seen in the SEC. Like Michigan, it will take a while to figure out. TCU defense yields yardage but thrives on creating turnovers as exhibited vs Michigan (2 pick 6). We'll stay on the underdog here as TCU should remain competitive.
|
01-08-23 |
Lions v. Packers -4.5 |
|
20-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 44 m |
Show
|
Lions/Packers 8:20: Packers turned their season around following the November 6th loss to the Lions. Since then, on a 5-2 SU/ATS run. The run game got cooking and Rodgers finally got in rhythm with his young receivers. Moreover, they started winning the turnover battle as the defense is playing lights out in the secondary. Detroit's Goff is a machine at home but just mediocre on the road. He'll be sorely tested vs the #2 pass defense in the NFL Sunday night. Lions' defense still can't be trusted vs this caliber of offense. They're last in the league in yards allowed and in the bottom tier scoring defense. Green Bay is a sweet 10-0 ATS off a SU division win vs a division opponent off a SU win. And they're 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 4 points vs a .500 or greater division opponent. Lions a shaky 1-10 ATS as division dogs of less than 5 points vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Take the Packers.
|
01-08-23 |
Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos |
Top |
28-31 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 6 m |
Show
|
Chargers/Broncos 4:25: Regardless of the playoff seeding scenarios for the Chargers, they've clinched a spot. A win by the Bengals in the earlier game gives speculation that Staley will sit a lot of his starters; however, he has no plans for that and wants momentum going into the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to continue their winning surge. The defense has been one of the key driving forces in their winning run down the stretch. Their previous 4 opponents were held to 11 PPG or less. Their defensive efficiency went from #26 to #5. LB Van Noy has been pivotal in their success as he's had a sack in 4 straight games. Chargers' offense now in rhythm with receivers Williams and Allen healthy for machinelike QB Herbert. Broncos gave a strong effort vs KC last week and are on a nice run covering 4 of their last 5. But Chargers are a lot better now than their October 17th OT win over Denver. And the Broncos cannot be trusted in the favorite role. Dog is 5-2 ATS in this series. Take the points with the Chargers.
|
01-08-23 |
Patriots v. Bills -6.5 |
|
23-35 |
Win
|
100 |
60 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
01-08-23 |
Browns v. Steelers -2.5 |
|
14-28 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
Browns/Steelers 1:00: Steelers hanging by a thread for a playoff berth. If they win here, they need both the Patriots (at Buffalo) and Dolphins (vs Jets) to lose. Tomlin, currently at 8-8, has never had a losing season and he should have his men fired up at home today. They're also seeking to avenge the September 22nd 29-17 loss. Browns are starting to get their offense cooking behind QB Watson, who did not play (suspended) in that earlier season matchup. Nick Chubb continues to be a steady running force for Cleveland. But Pittsburgh controls the 7th stingiest run-stop-unit in the league. Offensively, Pittsburgh not explosive, but steady, and even clutch in production. QB Pickett has no interceptions in 6 of last 7 games. Browns' defensive end Clowney, dismissed from practice earlier this week, will not suit up today. Pittsburgh sports a sweet 16-3 ATS mark at home vs a less than .500 division opponent off a SU win. Cleveland is a money burning 2-18 ATS off a non-division game vs a division opponent with revenge. Take Pittsburgh.
|
01-07-23 |
Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars |
|
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 24 m |
Show
|
Titans/Jaguars 8:15: Jaguars feeling really good about themselves on a nice run. But don't count the Titans out. They're actually better on the road (5-1-1 ATS run) against the mid-tier teams. And should be very competitive vs their division, especially in a revenge mode and with a playoff berth at stake. Titans are 4-0-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Vrabel is a sweet 10-2 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. QB Dobbs is capable of guiding the offense now that Derrick Henry is back in the fray. Dobbs has been decisive and quick in his decision making. Defensively, Titans play the run well (#2) and have gotten a bit healthier in their secondary. Titans have done well in Jacksonville at 4-1 ATS. Look for Tennessee to be competitive here.
|
01-05-23 |
Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 131.5 |
|
50-64 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 30 m |
Show
|
Maryland/Rutgers 6:30: Both of these teams are offensively challenged in the bottom tier of the NCAA in shooting. What separates these teams is Rutgers' strength on the offensive glass and their +4.7-turnover margin. Maryland is not a great rebounding team but not that opportunistic at -1 turnover margin. But both of these teams can flat out play defense. Rutgers a top tier defensive team that's even more stifling at home - allowing just 50.2 PPG. MD, which averages a paltry 61.3 PPG, is 11 points worse on the road. MD, which got pummeled in Michigan on January 1st, is 0-4 O/U off a SU loss of 20+. They're 0-4 O/U last 4 on road. Rutgers is 1-4 O/U vs a winning team above .600. This series has gone under three straight times. "Under" the call.
|
01-02-23 |
Utah v. Penn State |
|
21-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 25 m |
Show
|
|
01-02-23 |
Tulane +2.5 v. USC |
|
46-45 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 38 m |
Show
|
Tulane/USC 1:00: This year's USC team is defined by Caleb Williams. When he goes, the Trojans go. And that works both ways, as exhibited in the PAC12 Championship after he hurt his hamstring; consequently, the offense fell apart when he was no longer his mobile self. It's been a month since that injury occurred and I believe he's not going to be at his best today. Today, USC faces a similar staunch defense to Utah. Tulane has a Top 20 scoring defense, very good secondary, and they bring the heat on QBs. And Williams won't have his top receiver (Addison) plus two starting linemen Vorhees and Neilon. Defensively, LB Goforth (43 tackles) is in the transfer portal to Washington. USC defense ranks 101st in total yards given up and 112th vs the pass. Tulane offense productive led by mobile QB Pratt (25 TD/5 INT). Take Tulane
|
01-01-23 |
Vikings v. Packers -3 |
Top |
17-41 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 14 m |
Show
|
Vikings/Packers 4:25: Really impressed with the secondary play of Green Bay this season (#3 vs pass) especially last week vs elite receivers Waddle and Hill. They'll face some very good ones today in Jefferson, Theilen, TE Hockenson, and RB Cook. We'll look for the Packers' DC Barry to continue to make the right adjustments. Offensively, Rodgers a bit off the mark but got in a groove with his receiving corps and the Pack is rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. Green Bay offense should run through the Vikings' soft defense like a hot knife through butter. Vikings in the bottom tier vs the pass, total yards and points allowed. LaFleur a sweet 11-2 ATS as a favorite vs a .500 or greater team off a SU win. And the Packers are 9-1 ATS vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Packers can win out and have a good chance at the playoffs. Green Bay should get sweet revenge from Week 1 loss.
|
01-01-23 |
Jets v. Seahawks +2 |
|
6-23 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 29 m |
Show
|
Jets/Seahawks 4:05: Both teams desperate for a win with identical 7-8 records. Seattle has a 27% chance of getting to the playoffs, so they'll need to sweep remaining two and get help from other teams. Jets have just a 15% chance. Like the Seahawks chances here. They've won 4 straight in this series. Geno Smith will have back Lockett (finger) for this one. That's a big plus to take pressure off Metcalf vs a tough Jets' secondary. A healthy Walker III behind an improving front line should get the run game going. Seattle needs to tighten their defense. Look for it here. Jets' QB White gets back the nod as the starter. Jets' run game hasn't been cooking since Breece Hall (out) went down. Pete Carroll 12-3 ATS off back-to-back losses, should get er done here.
|
01-01-23 |
49ers -9 v. Raiders |
|
37-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 58 m |
Show
|
49ers/Raiders 4:05: 49ers are rolling yet still have something to play for. They most likely won't secure home field advantage throughout playoffs, for the Eagles will control that; however, they can secure a few home games by winning out. Raiders, on the other hand, are on life support as a playoff team and flat line here. Jarrett Stidham takes over at the helm as Derek Carr is benched for the year. Stidham has played in 11 games with no starts in his career. 49ers' Bosa and Ebukam should give him a rude awakening today. Stidham has weapons such as Waller, Davante Adams, Renfrow and RB Jacobs; however, he hasn't had enough time to establish a rhythm with them, and he's just plain not that good. And facing the #1 defense in the NFL in a variety of categories is not the right setting to go against in a first NFL start. On the other hand, Purdy is well supported and loaded with weapons. Should be able to work a mediocre defense (24th PPG allowed). 49ers 17-4 ATS in January and 6-1 ATS in Week 17. Lay the wood.
|
01-01-23 |
Bears v. Lions -6 |
|
10-41 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
Bears/Lions 1:00: Bears appear to be tanking to secure high draft choice. Defensively, they've hit the skids (32nd in scoring defense). You would think the revenge motive would be there today, but it wasn't against Green Bay, and I doubt it will be here today. Bears 1-7 ATS off a SU loss vs division opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Detroit has a tendency to lay an egg now and then but usually a scoring machine at home. Detroit is 12-4 ATS at home, and 8-4 ATS off a SU loss under Dan Campbell. Goff is half-human-half machine at Ford Field. Lions are now 5-2 ATS after allowing 35+ points, and they're 11-2 ATS vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Detroit still a slim hope for a playoff berth and we'll take them here.
|
12-31-22 |
Ohio State +6 v. Georgia |
|
41-42 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 53 m |
Show
|
OSU/Georgia 8:00: Hypothetically, if OSU plays defense like they did against Michigan, they'll lose big. I don't believe OSU DC Knowles will make that mistake twice. Against Michigan, he prepared the Buckeyes' defense to stack the line, go man coverage with a single high safety or Cover O (no safety) and the Wolverines smoked them with explosive plays routinely in a blowout. Bulldogs have a similar powerful offensive line, great skill personnel and a sharp QB. Knowles was a great coordinator with Oklahoma State and did a bang-up job with Ohio State up until that nightmare day on November 26th in Columbus. Look for Knowles to take a bend don't break philosophy to disallow explosive plays yet tighten in the red zone. As for offensively, OSU has a few injuries to key skill personnel, but Stroud still has a deep receiving corps, including matchup nightmare Marvin Jarrison Jr.. OSU plays the dog role well at 9-0 ATS getting 3 or more points. Take the points.
|
12-31-22 |
TCU +8 v. Michigan |
|
51-45 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 35 m |
Show
|
TCU/Michigan 4:00: In the Harbaugh era of the Wolverines, they've been the grind it out, run the football, play action team and they're not changing their style nor should they. They have arguably the best offensive line in the nation and very good skill personnel to accomplish what Harbaugh wants this year. Donovan Edwards filled in well for injured Blake Corum, running for 216 vs OSU and 185 vs Purdue. The problem for the Wolverines throughout Harbaugh's tenure has been the teams that have a veteran offensive line with superior athletes in skill positions. Up until this year, Ohio State gassed their defense with up-tempo offense, Alabama beat them up in the 2019 Citrus Bowl and Georgia pulverized them in last year's Semi-Finals in the CFP. This year, with a few coaching changes, addition of better athletes, Wolves are a legitimate contender and no longer an underdog loser in big games, as exhibited by their blowout against OSU. They now go into the pricey favorite role and I'm not quite ready to lay more than a TD here. TCU defense most likely will bend vs the Wolverines but thrive on creating turnovers. Offensively, TCU has thrived under Dykes' offense. Max Duggan and company drop 40.3 PPG on opponents. No one has been able to stop match up nightmare WR Quentin Johnston, and Kendre Miller has been outstanding running behind the veteran TCU offensive line. TCU has too many weapons to get beaten soundly here. We'll take the points.
|
12-31-22 |
Iowa v. Kentucky UNDER 31 |
|
21-0 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
Iowa/Kentucky Noon: Two sluggish offenses but rock-solid defenses collide early. These offenses were pedestrian with their starting QBs Petras and Will Levis. Today, Iowa will have third stringer Joe Labas run the offense. Petras (shoulder surgery) is out and 2nd stringer Padilla went into the transfer portal. Kentucky's overrated QB Will Levis is opting out to prep for NFL. And the Wildcats' lead back - Chris Rodriquez (904 yards) also opted out for the NFL draft prep. These teams met January 1st, 2022 at full strength and slothed to a 20-17 Kentucky win. They ran the ball a combined 75 times! Today, more of the same with less athleticism offensively. Iowa's defense allows just 14.4 PPG. Kentucky's defense is a Top 20 unit. We won't fear the low set total. Points will be at a premium here with the lack of explosive plays. We'll stay under in a defensive battle.
|
12-31-22 |
Kansas State +7 v. Alabama |
|
20-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
Kansas State/Alabama Noon: I won't deny that Alabama will be up for this game on account of being denied in the CFP. Saban and company feel they can take out their frustration on Kansas State here to make a statement to the committee. But he'll have to do it without 5 offensive linemen and 5 wide receivers which entered the transfer portal. Sure, Saban is loaded with 5* two deep and will have QB Bryce Young and #1 draft pick edge player Will Anderson in this game. But don't discount the Chris Klieman who can flat out coach. He sports a 76% career winning percentage and destroyed LSU 42-20 in the Texas Bowl in January. Kansas State has no opt outs and not intimidated. K State has a Top 20 defense and allows only 20.1 PPG. They're highly opportunistic with 16 takeaways. Offensively, well-disciplined with a ground-controlled game led by Deuce Vaughn. QB Will Howard well skilled with a 15/2 TD/INT ratio. Very few weaknesses on K State including quality special teams. We'll take the TD with K State.
|
12-30-22 |
Clemson -5.5 v. Tennessee |
Top |
14-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 46 m |
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Tennessee/Clemson 8:00: Tennessee was well on its way to play in the CFP when QB Hooker went down vs South Carolina. Former Michigan QB Joe Milton, who has a rifle of an arm, came in to save the season but couldn't, as the 2nd loss of the season sent them to this bowl. Milton did lead the Volunteers to a decisive blow out win over Vanderbilt, albeit the run game is what gutted the Commodores defense. That won't happen against the well-disciplined Top 20 defense of Clemson. And although Joe Milton has the arm strength to stretch a defense, he doesn't have the accuracy to do it against Clemson's. Furthermore, he won't have his top two receivers - Hyatt and Tillman (NFL draft opt outs). On the other hand, Clemson won't have their starting QB D.J. Uiagalelei who already transferred to Oregon State. And that's a good thing because Klubnik, who came into the game in the ACC Championship and lit up the UNC secondary, is the better option and should have been the starter. Tennessee's secondary (127th in the nation) is not very good. Klubnik should light it up like a torch. Clemson HC Swinney has an excellent bowl record and should have his men finishing strong as a springboard for next year. Clemson the call.
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