Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 228.5 | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Thunder and Wizards on Wednesday. Oklahoma City is running as free-flowing of an offense as you'll find in the NBA right now, hoisting up 102, 111, 93, 88 and 98 field goal attempts over its last five games. Better still, the Thunder have knocked down 41, 50, 52, 55 and 47 field goals over that stretch. There's little reason to expect Washington to offer much resistance as five of its last six opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts. While the Wizards haven't been pushing the pace to the same level as the Thunder, they can certainly get out and run and take advantage of the opportunities they're afforded. In that regard, they should have plenty here as the Thunder have allowed four of their last five opponents to get off 93+ FG attempts with three of their last four opponents knocking down 46+ field goals. The Wiz have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five contests. Take the over (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Blazers | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs got drilled by the Warriors in San Francisco last night but I expect them to put up more of a fight against the Blazers in Portland on Tuesday. San Antonio actually got off a whopping 100 field goal attempts in that setback. It simply couldn't make the most of its opportunities. At the same time, it did limit the Warriors to 'only' 88 field goal attempts but the Warriors shot the lights out, as they're known to do on a regular basis. Here, I don't expect San Antonio to suffer the same fate at the hands of the Blazers, who have made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of their last five contests. Portland is having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four of its last five games. Note that this matchup favored the Spurs last season with San Antonio scoring 114, 133, 130 and 113 points while going a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in four meetings. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Knicks v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it as the Knicks head to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz on Tuesday night, with both teams coming off losses. New York has gotten off a whopping 90+ field goal attempts in 10 of its 13 games this season while Utah has done the same in 10 of its last 14 contests. The problem is neither team has offered much resistance to the opposition defensively. New York has been lit up for more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Each of Utah's last seven opponents have knocked down 40+ field goals. We saw both teams shoot poorly in last season's two meetings in this series and as a result both games stayed 'under' the total. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-22 | Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's no question which way I'm going with the total in this early season showdown between the Spartans and Wildcats. The 'under' has combined to go 3-1 in these two teams' first four games this season and there's little reason to anticipate a reversal of that trend here. Kentucky has been 'filling it up' through two games, knocking down 34 and 28 field goals in blowout wins over Howard and Duquesne - both at Rupp Arena no less. It isn't likely to enjoy the same type of success here, however, noting that Michigan State just got done holding Gonzaga to only 23 made field goals in a tough 64-63 loss on Friday. Speaking of that game, the Spartans could only muster 21 made field goals against the Zags and now deal with a Kentucky defense that limited its first two opponents to just 43-of-133 shooting, despite the lopsided nature of those two aforementioned contests. Noting that the 'under' is a long-term 110-79 with Michigan State playing on a neutral court and 13-2 the last 15 times Kentucky has come off a double-digit home victory, as is the case here, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). |
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11-14-22 | Suns +1.5 v. Heat | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat are coming off consecutive wins but those both came against the lowly Hornets. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge as they host a Suns squad that checks in off a stunning 17-point loss in Orlando on Friday. I'm confident we'll see Phoenix 'get right' against a sagging Heat defense that has allowed five of its last eight opponents to knock down 41+ field goals, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. Also note that Miami has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight contests. The Suns are an impressive 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games after losing outright as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (9*). |
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11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-22 | Delaware State v. Villanova -36 | 50-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Delaware State at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Villanova has gone 0-2 ATS to open the season including an outright loss against Temple last time out. I expect the Wildcats to 'get right' on Monday, however, as they host Delaware State. The Hornets own an identical 1-1 record to that of Villanova but all records aren't created equal. The Hornets opened their season with a 95-57 blowout loss at Virginia Tech before evening their record with a 104-67 win over, wait for it, Immaculata. Delaware State not surprisingly shot the lights out in that most recent contest but concerning was the fact that it allowed its virtually unknown opponent to make good on 21-of-43 field goal attempts. Take Villanova (8*). |
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11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs UNDER 226.5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Cavs most recent game on Friday night against the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they return home to host the T'Wolves. Minnesota is having a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. It has hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Cleveland is obviously a stingy defensive squad, yielding 83 or fewer FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last five games. Each of the Cavs last six opponents have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals. Minnesota has quietly been limiting its opponents' pace as well, permitting fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Cavs offense but this isn't an ideal spot, returning home on just one day of rest off a five-game road trip. Take the under (8*). |
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11-12-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 215.5 | 115-132 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday but that was a 'bad beat' by very definition as the two teams needed overtime to get 'over' the total. Not much of an adjustment has been made to the total in advance of Saturday's rematch so I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again. Note that Charlotte continues to struggle offensively, making good on just 36, 33, 32, 42, 34 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last six games. In the high-water mark game over that stretch, it still scored 'only' 100 points in a loss against the Wizards. On the flip side, due to a number of key injuries, the Hornets have had to work to slow their opponents' pace in order to stay competitive and that has worked to a certain extent. They've limited six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. Miami shot just 37-of-83 in the first four quarters on Thursday. Of course, the Heat boast one of the best defenses in the league, limiting each of their last six opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down more than 40 field goals and that was Sacramento in a game where it scored 'only' 107 points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-12-22 | UMass Lowell v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UMass-Lowell and Rutgers at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams shot the lights out in their most recent game with UMass-Lowell crushing Columbia 89-62 and Rutgers rolling to an 88-50 rout of Sacred Heart (we won with the Scarlet Knights in that game). Note that Rutgers got off 'only' 60 field goal attempts in Thursday's win after hoisting up 72 in its season-opener against a defense-less Columbia squad. The Scarlet Knights have absolutely manhandled their first two opponents defensively, limiting them to 47 and 53 field goal attempts. UMass-Lowell has thrived from beyond the arc through two games, averaging 10 made three-pointers per contest. Rutgers, however, has limited its first two opponents to a grand total of six made threes. Like Rutgers, UMass-Lowell has also played with some defensive intensity in the early going this season, yielding just 18 and 19 made field goals to its first two opponents. After turning the basketball over 21 times last time out and facing a Rutgers defense that has forced 50 turnovers through two games, I can't help but think UMass-Lowell's number one priority in this one will simply be hanging on to the basketball, ultimately leading to plenty of shot clock-draining possessions. Take the under (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 229 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Cavs are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs, shooting north of 50% in both of those contests but also allowing the opposition to eclipse the 50% shooting mark. The pace certainly didn't dictate those totals of 236 and 247 points, however, with the Cavs getting off 83 and 86 field goal attempts while holding their opponents to just 79 and 76. Noting that Cleveland has held each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts and 40 or fewer made field goals, I look for the Cavs to lean on their defense to try to bring an end to their first losing streak of the season here. Golden State has limited four of its last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. The outlier came last time out - a game in which the Warriors held Sacramento to just 37 made field goals on 91 attempts (that game stayed 'under' the total). On the flip side, the Warriors opened the campaign by knocking down 41+ field goals in six straight games. Since then, they've eclipsed the 40 field goal mark only twice in five games. Also note that they've gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games. Finally, I'll point to the fact that last year's two meetings between these teams totalled just 193 and 178 points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Southern v. Arizona -27 | 78-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Southern at 9 pm et on Friday. With this game totalled in the 150's, I expect Arizona to make things very uncomfortable for Southern in a fast-paced environment in Tucson on Friday. The Wildcats erupted for 117 points in their season-opening win over Nicholls State, despite turning the basketball over 24 times in that contest. Incredibly, Arizona missed only 15 field goal attempts in the entire game. Southern is coming off a SU loss but ATS cover against UNLV, falling by a score of 66-56. Southern made good on just 19 field goals in that game and now faces a much tougher challenge against the Wildcats. Take Arizona (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Oklahoma -28 | 58-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Arkansas-Pine Bluff at 8 pm et on Friday. Arkansas-Pine Bluff went into Fort Worth and gave TCU the scare of all scares in its season-opener, losing by a single point as a 35.5-point (!) underdog. Meanwhile, Oklahoma lost outright as a 16.5-point favorite at home against a good Sam Houston State squad. I have no trouble getting behind the Sooners in this bounce-back spot, noting that Pine Bluff is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when priced as a road underdog of between 24.5 and 30 points, as is the case here. Pine Bluff is in for a major letdown after scoring 87 points (it needed 82 field goal attempts and 25 forced turnovers to get there) against Champion Baptist last time out. While the Sooners did lose their opener, they actually held Sam Houston State to 21-of-64 shooting from the field. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Alabama State v. USC -24.5 | 58-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Alabama State at 11 pm et on Thursday. USC took it on the chin in its season-opener, falling in a stunner against Florida-Gulf Coast (it lost by 13 points as an 18.5-point favorite). That should get the Trojans attention as they prepare to bounce back against a much more manageable opponent in Alabama State on Thursday night. Alabama State lost by a whopping 41 points in its season-opener against UAB on Monday. While the Hornets did get off 76 field goal attempts in that game, few were of the high quality variety as they ultimately knocked down only 24 of them in a losing effort. Lost in USC's upset loss against FGCU was the fact that it held the Eagles to 24-of-64 shooting. Sloppy play was the story as the Trojans turned the basketball over 15 times. I expect to see a much cleaner performance from USC on Thursday as it gets out and runs after being limited to only 52 field goal attempts against a stingy FGCU defense on Monday. This is as good as it gets in terms of 'get right' spots in the first week of the season. Take USC (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Southern Illinois v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Southern Illinois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Off a 94-63 dismantling of Arkansas-Little Rock, Southern Illinois is getting some support at the current number against Oklahoma State on Thursday. I'm not convinced that support is warranted, however. The Salukis quite simply shot the lights out in their season-opener, knocking down 32-of-55 field goal attempts. My concern is they gave Little Rock 18 extra possessions thanks to turnovers, affording them a whopping 64 field goal attempts. Little Rock just couldn't take advantage. Oklahoma State returns four starters from last year's team and while it was also careless with the basketball in its opener, turning it over 17 times, it also forced 19 turnovers. That was the Cowboys M.O. last season and I believe it will be true again in 2022-23. In stark contrast to Southern Illinois, Oklahoma State made good on just 26-of-60 FG attempts in its opener against Texas-Arlington, never sniffing out an ATS cover as a -20.5-point favorite. On a positive note, it limited Arlington to only 59 FG attempts (making good on only 21 of them). I look for the Cowboys to find their shooting legs here and ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Oklahoma State (10*). |
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11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-22 | Sacred Heart v. Rutgers -20.5 | 50-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Sacred Heart at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams last met a little under two years ago with Rutgers winning by 23 points despite making just one three-pointer and knocking down just 5-of-15 free throw attempts. Obviously both teams have undergone considerable personnel changes since then but I don't anticipate a much different result with Sacred Heart in a letdown spot off a win and cover over Hartford and Rutgers appearing to be in midseason form in a 75-35 dismantling of Columbia in its season-opener. The Scarlet Knights turned the Lions over a whopping 25 times in that lopsided victory. Sacred Heart likes to play up-tempo, most recently affording Hartford 61 field goal attempts in its season-opening victory. That plays right into the hands of the Scarlet Knights, who made good on 31-of-72 field goal attempts against Columbia. Rutgers can certainly make Sacred Heart uncomfortable here with a smothering defense that limited Columbia to only 47 FG attempts last time out. Take Rutgers (8*). |
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11-09-22 | Cavs -5 v. Kings | 120-127 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Cavaliers as they look to bounce back from a two-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights ago. That was a back-to-back and three-in-four spot for Cleveland. Here, it should benefit from having had yesterday off in the California sunshine as it looks to get back on track against a road-weary Kings squad that wrapped a four-game in eight-night road trip that took it from East to West, wrapping up with Monday's stop in San Francisco. The Kings have been extremely vulnerable defensively this season - as expected - allowing 43, 44, 43 and 44 made field goals in regulation time over their last four contests and 41+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Sacramento has been held to 37, 41, 41 and 37 made field goals in regulation time over its last four contests and has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six overall. That doesn't bode well as it prepares to face a smothering Cavs defense that has limited its last three opponents to 83, 87 and 79 FG attempts and seven of 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season. Cleveland has been thriving offensively, hitting 41+ field goals in seven of its last nine games including 42 or more in three of its last four contests. That's despite playing at a fairly slow pace (it has gotten off fewer than 90 FG attempts in six of its last seven games and 81, 84 and 83 over its last three contests). Here, the pace could tick up and in that situation I'm confident the Cavs can go off offensively. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Bucks v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 136-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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11-08-22 | Mercer +1 v. East Carolina | 75-77 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mercer over East Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. East Carolina does come out of the larger conference but as the line indicates, I don't think it is the better team in this matchup, at least not at this early stage of the season. The Pirates are in a bit of a transition year, with a new head coach and a number of new faces in the lineup. East Carolina loses its top three scorers from last season and while the cupboard is by no means bare, I do think it's going to take some time for this squad to come together. The Bears on the other hand, return three of five starters from last season and I expect them to use this game as a launching point as they build toward a showdown against Florida State in Tallahassee later this month. Note that Mercer has been comfortable playing in this pointspread range, going 10-6 ATS in its last 16 games where the line was set between +3 and -3. In the same pointspread range, ECU has gone just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 contests. That's not to mention the fact that the Pirates home court advantage has been virtually non-existent, at least from an ATS perspective, as they've gone just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 lined home games. Take Mercer (8*). |
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11-07-22 | Nets v. Mavs UNDER 215.5 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The first matchup between these two teams this season featured a much higher posted total and that game ended up reaching a whopping 254 points, aided by overtime. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Note that the Nets continue to struggle to just get shots off, let alone knock them down. While there was an outlier of a 50 made field goal performance in a rout of Washington on Friday (we still won with the 'under' in that game), they've been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. Now they face a stingy Mavericks defense that has held four straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, Dallas has gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts in six straight contests. It shot the lights out in each of its last two games (50% or better in both contests) yet still scored 'only' 103 and 111 points. Brooklyn has been stingy in its own right, holding its last four opponents to 87, 89, 83 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Suns v. 76ers UNDER 217 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Monday. You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams playing better defensive basketball than the Suns and 76ers right now. While both of last year's meetings went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing), I believe the number will prove too high this time around. Phoenix wrapped up a split in a two-game home set with the Blazers, putting on a defensive clinic in Saturday's blowout victory, holding Portland to just 30-of-79 shooting. The Suns have now limited five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of nine foes to 38 or fewer made field goals this season. It's a similar story for the Joel Embiid-less 76ers. They held the Knicks to 37-of-80 shooting last time out and have limited each of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. On the flip side, however, they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six of their last nine games overall. After a hot start to the season, the Suns shooting has cooled off as well as they've made good on 41, 36 and 35 field goals over their last three games, three of their four lowest FG totals of the season. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-22 | Hofstra v. Princeton OVER 151 | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hofstra and Princeton at 7:30 pm et on Monday. These two teams met last season with Hofstra prevailing by a score of 81-77. That was a game that saw just 21 made three-pointers and only 15 free throw attempts. Both teams have some talent to replace this season - Princeton in particular with three starters from last year's team having moved on. The cupboard is by no means bare, however. Hofstra adds Tyler Thomas from Sacred Heart, where he averaged over 19 points per game last season and could challenge Aaron Estrada for CAA Player of the Year - an award won by Estrada in 2021-22. While we're dealing with a higher posted total in this matchup than we saw in last year's meeting, I don't believe it will prove to be high enough. Note that the 'over' is 25-10 in Hofstra's last 35 games as a road underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 153.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-2 in Princeton's last 12 non-conference tilts, also averaging a total of 153.4 points in those contests. Take the over (8*). |
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11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. The Clippers have cashed in a favorite role in each of their last two games but I don't think we should make a habit of backing this team laying points. Note that Los Angeles continues to have a tough enough time getting shots off, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all nine games this season and 84 or fewer on seven occasions. Meanwhile, the Jazz are getting most of the attention due to their scoring prowess, but they can play some defense as well, limiting four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The only team that topped that number over that stretch was Memphis in a game Utah won by a score of 121-105. On the flip side, Utah checks in having made good on 42+ field goals in seven of 10 contests this season. The Clips are generally considered to be an elite defensive team but they've yet to really hit their stride in that regard this season, with the Rockets (twice) and Lakers being the only two teams they've held to fewer than 40 made field goals to date. Take Utah (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Blazers v. Suns -9 | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. I think the Suns may have forgotten they actually had to show up to secure the revenge victory over the upstart Blazers last night. While Phoenix shot poorly, Portland seemingly couldn't miss as it pulled out another narrow two-point victory (it won the season's earlier meeting by the same margin at home). Here, I look for the Suns to bounce back. Phoenix has still held seven of its eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts this season. Last night marked the first time in four games that it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Meanwhile, Portland has still yet to get off more than 90 FG attempts in a game this season and while it has managed to slow its last two opponents, it has still yielded 91+ FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last seven games. Prior to this season, the Suns had reeled off three straight wins in this series, including a pair of double-digit victories on this floor. Expect Phoenix to deliver some payback on Saturday. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | 117-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are completely out of sorts offensively right now while both have also shown a pulse defensively of late. I believe this total will prove far too high. Note that Houston has managed to knock down 40+ field goals just once in its last seven games. Minnesota has made good on 41, 40, 37 and 39 field goals in its last four contests. Both teams have limited their opponents tempo to a certain extent lately with Houston holding its last five foes to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. The T'Wolves have yielded fewer than 90 field goal attempts to four straight opponents. Take the under (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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11-04-22 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | 128-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 'over' has cashed in the Wizards last two games but the pace certainly hasn't dictated those results. Washington got off 81 and 78 field goal attempts in those two contests while limiting the 76ers to 82 and 84. Yet the two games totalled 229 and 232 points. The Wiz quite simply shot the lights out two nights ago but I don't anticipate a repeat performance here. Brooklyn continues to struggle to get shots off, hoisting up 82, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. On a positive note, the Nets have held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts and that should be the focus again here as they come off a loss to the Bulls at home (we won with Chicago in that game). Note that the 'under' is 23-12 in the Nets last 35 games where the total was set between 220 and 229.5 points going back to the start of last season, resulting in an average total of just 222.0 points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-04-22 | Heat v. Pacers UNDER 227.5 | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While I realize the 'over' is 2-1-1 in each of these teams' last four games, respectively, I don't expect that short-term trend to continue here. Neither team is forcing the issue offensively with the Heat getting off fewer than 90 field goals attempts in seven straight games and the Pacers hoisting up 87 or fewer in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Miami has yielded just 76, 84 and 86 FG attempts to its last three opponents while Indiana has limited five consecutive opponents to 87 FG attempts or fewer. The last two meetings in this series both went 'over' the total but neither would have surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6 | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Thunder in the first matchup between these two teams in Denver back on October 22nd and I won't hesitate to come back with the same play in this rematch in Oklahoma City on Thursday. Obviously, Denver was in a tougher scheduling spot on that night, playing the second of back-to-backs off a big upset win over the defending champion Warriors on San Francisco the night previous. The Thunder were in the midst of a three-game losing streak to open the season, however. Here, OKC enters off four consecutive victories, both SU and ATS. The Thunder have been tremendously consistent offensively, stuffing boxscores to the tune of 41+ made field goals in each of their last six games and 44 or more in each of their last three. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, relatively-speaking, holding six consecutive opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. They've also limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, and that includes an overtime period against the Mavericks two games back. The Nuggets on the other hand have allowed three straight and four of their last five opponents to hoist up 90+ field goal attempts. Of their seven opponents so far this season, six managed to knock down 40+ field goals. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers OVER 227 | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. It took a little while but the Lakers have essentially thrown defense out the window and coming off their first victory of the season, I don't expect them to change a thing as they welcome the Pelicans to Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday. Los Angeles' last three opponents have gotten off 92, 99 and 96 field goal attempts, scoring 110, 111 and 110 points over that stretch. I certainly expect the Pelicans to do a better job of taking advantage of an up-tempo affair, noting that they've knocked down 42+ field goals in five of their six games this season. The Lakers, despite their struggles, have made good on 40+ field goals in four of six contests this season. Here, they'll face a New Orleans squad that has yielded 92+ FG attempts to three of its last five opponents. The scoring opportunities will be there tonight, and I'm confident both teams can take full advantage. Take the over (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Blazers | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got their lunch handed to them in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Jazz in Salt Lake City over the weekend. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Blazers in Portland. Note that Memphis continues to 'play the right way', limiting its last four opponents to 87, 83, 87 and 89 field goal attempts. Unfortunately, those four opponents shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Blazers doing off a scintillating shooting performance of their own. Portland has been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of its six games this season and last Friday's rout of the Rockets marked the first time all season the Blazers got off 90+ field goal attempts. Defensively, the Blazers haven't been good. They've yielded 40+ made field goals to their opponents in each of their last five games. Four of their last five opponents got off 91+ FG attempts. Look for the Grizzlies to take full advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Utah at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz are off to a stunning 6-2 start to the season and are fresh off sweeping the Grizzlies in a two-game set in Salt Lake City. I can't help but feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday in Dallas, however. The Mavericks got a bit of a scare at home against the Magic on Sunday, playing in a back-to-back spot off an overtime loss to the Thunder the night previous. Now they're at home, off consecutive days off for the first time in a couple of weeks and I look for them to turn in a much sharper performance on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held all six opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts this season. The two previous times we've seen them play on 2+ days' rest this season they've shot a combined 50% from the field while holding those two opponents to just 79 and 76 FG attempts. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing a ridiculous 50 made field goals against Memphis, and the Grizzlies were without Ja Morant in that contest. Five of their last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts and should the Mavs get into that range on Wednesday, I'm confident we'll see them hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. Take Dallas (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 219 | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday This is the back half of a home-and-home set between the Wizards and 76ers after Philadelphia pulled out a 118-111 victory on Monday. We're working with a higher posted total in this quick rematch and I believe it will prove too high. Note that the pace certainly didn't dictate a high-scoring affair on Monday. Philadelphia quite simply shot the lights out. The 76ers got off just 82 field goal attempts in that game. In fact, the 76ers have hoisted up 82 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and 84 or fewer in all eight contests this season. Similarly, the Wizards got off only 81 field goal attempts on Monday. They've made good on just 33, 36 and 38 field goals over their last three contests and have yet to attempt more than 90 shots in a game this season. Take the under (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Magic v. Thunder -3 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the short number with the Thunder as they host the reeling Magic on Tuesday night. Orlando checks in 1-6 on the season but the fact that it has gone 2-0 or 1-0-1 ATS in its last two games affords us a reasonable price to fade the Magic here. Orlando has made good on 37 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games and I'm not convinced it will have enough scoring opportunities to keep pace with the Thunder here. Note that Oklahoma City has been as consistent as it gets offensively, knocking down 41+ field goals in five straight games entering this contest. On the flip side, the Thunder have held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-30-22 | Magic v. Mavs UNDER 216 | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Dallas at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. It was a true 'bad beat' for 'under' bettors in the Mavericks 117-111 overtime loss to the Thunder last night. Here, I don't think there's any reason to jump off the 'under' as the Mavs stay home to host the Magic. Orlando posted its first win of the season on Friday, snapping a five-game losing streak to open the campaign. Note that the Magic have gotten off more than 86 field goal attempts just once in six games this season. On the flip side, Orlando has done a pretty good job of slowing its opponents, yielding fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of six contests while also holding its last two opponents to just 36 and 33 made field goals. Dallas is of course an elite defensive team, limiting all five of its opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time this season. Last night, the Thunder quite simply shot exceptionally well from the field - the second time a Mavs opponent has done that in its last three games. I don't see that trend continuing here. Note that the Mavs offense doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, hoisting up 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time in four of five contests. Even with overtime last night, the Mavs still knocked down only 38 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 the last 10 times the Mavs have played for the third time in four nights, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 202.5 points. The 'under' is also 12-2 the last 14 times Dallas has played at home after losing two of its last three games, leading to an average total of 205.9 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-22 | Rockets +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*). |
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10-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 213.5 | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Two nights ago, these two teams combined to score 228 points in a double-digit Raptors victory. That outcome had more to do with both teams shooting the lights out than the pace of play. The 76ers have now gotten off 80, 83, 84, 80 and 79 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. They've held four of their five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Raptors. They've hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in all five games while limiting the opposition to just 77, 80, 76, 83 and 79 FG attempts. You get the idea. I'm confident we'll see both teams do a better job of defending the perimeter in particular in Friday's rematch and here we'll note that the 'under' is 32-16 in the 76ers last 48 games when playing on the road off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 196.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 232 | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met two nights ago in Houston with the Rockets pulling off the minor upset in a 114-108 victory, cruising comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold from a totals perspective on Wednesday, however. That was a slow-paced game for Houston - relatively speaking - as it got off just 90 field goal attempts marking a season-low. Yet the Rockets still scored 114 points. I'm confident we'll see the pace tick up here. Houston opponents have been 'filling it up' in the early going this season, making good on 45, 45, 48 and 44 field goals through four games. Monday's game marked the first time this season Utah held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals, but again, it still allowed 114 points. The Jazz have hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 FG attempts over their last three games. Even in their season-opener when they got off just 83 FG attempts, they still scored 123 points in a rout of the Nuggets. In fact, Utah has made good on 42+ field goals in all four games this season. While Monday's contest between these two teams stayed 'under' the total, we're dealing with a lower total this time around and keep in mind, we're just one matchup removed from a game that produced 259 points between these two last March. Take the over (8*). |
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10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*). |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 233.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Nets most recent game - a wild, 134-124 loss in Memphis two nights ago. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as I don't believe the pace Brooklyn, or Milwaukee for that matter, has been playing at warrants such a high posted total. Note that Brooklyn has hoisted up just 89, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through its first three games. It quite simply shot the lights out against the Grizzlies on Monday - something I don't expect it to do again here, noting that the Bucks have only played two games, but have appeared to be in midseason form defensively, allowing just 36 made field goals in each contest. Like the Nets, the Bucks haven't exactly been pushing the pace at every opportunity. Albeit with a small sample size, they've gotten off just 84 and 85 FG attempts in their first two games but like the Nets, did shoot the lights out in their most recent contest, that coming against the lowly Rockets. Take the under (8*). |
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10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns -2.5 | 105-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter Tuesday's showdown sporting 2-1 records, although they've looked very different in doing so. Hidden in the Warriors positive start has been their poor defensive play. They've allowed two of their three opponents to get off 93+ field goal attempts with all three of the teams they've faced having knocked down 40+ field goals. In the one game where they did limit the Nuggets to only 86 field goal attempts, they still allowed a whopping 128 points in a losing effort. The Suns, meanwhile, are in midseason form defensively. They've held their first three opponents to just 75, 82 and 82 FG attempts, allowing 36 or fewer made field goals in all three contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has knocked down 40, 43 and 43 field goals itself. Despite getting little offensive production from DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul, the Suns still scored 112 points in a 17-point win over the full-strength Clippers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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10-25-22 | Clippers v. Thunder +9.5 | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Thunder are missing two of their best players in Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but it's not as if the Clippers are setting the world on fire in the early going this season, and they have their own key absence to deal with in Paul George. Oklahoma City enters this contest still winless on the campaign at 0-3 although all three games have been relatively close (decided by 10 points or less). Over their last two games, the Thunder held the Nuggets and T'Wolves - two high-powered offensive teams - to just 85 and 88 field goal attempts, respectively. Unfortunately both of those opponents quite simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate the Clippers doing the same here. Note that Los Angeles has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games, making good on just 37, 41 and 36 of those shots. The Thunder have afforded themselves far more opportunities at the very least, hoisting up 99, 94 and 94 FG attempts. In this early stage of the season, the Clippers haven't exactly been locking down the opposition, yielding their first three opponents 94, 85 and 93 FG attempts. Noting that these two teams have split their last four meetings with three of those four contests being decided by five points or less, I'll grab the points with the home side on Tuesday. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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10-25-22 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 223 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pistons first three games this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday in Washington. Both of these teams are coming off losses where the opposition stuffed the boxscore with Detroit allowing 124 points in Indiana and Washington yielding 117 points in Cleveland. The Pistons have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals in all three games despite getting off 90+ attempts in each contest. Noting that Washington has played at a relatively slow pace, hoisting up 91, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through three games this season, there's reason to believe Detroit's scoring opportunities could be even more limited here. After yielding a whopping 103 FG attempts to the Pacers last time out, I'm confident we'll see the Pistons try to 'ugly this one up' in an effort to salvage something from this three-game road trip. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series while the 'under' is also 55-35 in the Pistons last 90 road games following consecutive road losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*). |
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10-24-22 | Nets v. Grizzlies UNDER 229.5 | 124-134 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Most will be anticipating a track meet between these two star-studded squads on Monday night in Memphis. I'm not so easily convinced. After dropping both meetings last year, and allowing Memphis to dictate the tempo in each of those contests, I look for Brooklyn to make a concerted effort to slow things down on Monday. Note that the Nets have topped out at 89 field goal attempts across their six games to date (including the preseason). They scored 'only' 108 points in that game where they got off 89 FG attempts. Brooklyn checks in having held three of its last four opponents, again including the preseason, to 84 FG attempts or fewer. The Grizzlies have gone from 108 field goal attempts, to 98 to 79 in their three contests this season. On the flip side, they've allowed the opposition to get off 109, 93 and 90 attempts from the field. I do think the Grizzlies are a much better defensive team than they've shown, having allowed their first three opponents to knock down 44, 44 and 45 field goals. I think the slower pace of the Nets will aid them in getting their defense a little more settled in this one, noting that Brooklyn has been limited to 36, 29, 43, 37, 40 and 38 made field goals in its six games going back to the start of the preseason. The high-water mark of 43 came in a game where the Nets still scored just 107 points. In last season's two meetings with the Grizzlies, the Nets got off 82 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 224.5 | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than expected on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles. The Blazers had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Suns last time out, attempting just 74 field goals in regulation time, yet still managed to prevail in overtime thanks to their solid defensive play. Off to a perfect 2-0 start this season, the Blazers have limited their first two opponents to just 85 and 84 field goal attempts. Now they face an inefficient Lakers offense that has managed to knock down 40 field goals once in two games but needed 93 FG attempts to reach that total. The problem that could be looming for the Blazers is that their own offense has been lukewarm. They've made good on just 39 and 36 field goals through two games and going back to the start of the preseason have topped out at 83 FG attempts. Only one of four meetings between these two teams last season got 'over' 212 points and that was a game where Portland got off a whopping 102 FG attempts. This marks the second-highest posted total in the last five matchups in this series and I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (8*). |
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10-22-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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10-21-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +1 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I have the Wizards pegged as a potential surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season and I like the way this spot sets up for them in their home-opener against the Bulls on Friday. Chicago pulled off a stunner in its season-opener two nights ago, leading most of the way in a 116-108 win over the Heat in Miami. We won with the 'over' in that contest, noting that the Bulls had a fantastic preseason from an offensive standpoint but also some warts to deal with at the defensive end of the floor. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to contain Miami's offense to the tune of just 80 field goal attempts. Yet the Heat still put up 108 points. Keep in mind, during its preseason slate, Chicago yielded its four opponents 93, 88, 96 and 92 FG attempts. We know the Wizards can push the pace, noting that they got off 92 FG attempts in their 114-107 win in Indiana two nights ago. I like Washington's depth a whole lot more than I do Chicago's. The Bulls needed DeMar Derozan's heroics to pull out the victory in Miami. Here, I'm not convinced his scoring exploits will be enough. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 223.5 | 103-97 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Clippers and Lakers at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers showed very little interest in controlling the tempo of their opponents last season and we saw more of the same in the preseason and again in their season-opener against the Warriors two nights ago. Even with Steve Kerr limiting his starters minutes, the Warriors still got off 99 field goal attempts, making good on 45 of them. In the preseason, the Lakers yielded their opponents 103, 105, 95, 88, 97 and 94 field goal attempts with all but one of those opponents knocking down 41 or more (the exception was a game where they still gave up 119 points against the Suns). I don't anticipate the Clippers coming out of the gates in midseason form defensively as they took part in only three preseason tilts against NBA opposition, allowing 40+ made field goals in each of their last two contests (those games totalled 236 and 241 points). On both occasions where the Clips got off 80+ FG attempts in the preseason, they managed to make good on at least 40. Given the pace the Lakers have yielded to the opposition, the opportunities should certainly be there for this Clips offense on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 14-9 in the Lakers last 23 games following a loss against a division opponent and better still, 8-3 when that loss came by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -4 | 90-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We cashed a ticket fading the 76ers on opening night in Boston but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back them as they return home to host the Bucks on Thursday. I'm just not sure that Milwaukee gets enough scoring opportunities to ultimately keep Philadelphia within arm's reach in this game. Note that the Bucks struggled to get their shots off during the preseason. They topped out at 41 made field goals in a 10-point loss to the Hawks but they needed 97 field goal attempts to get there. Outside of that they were limited to just 37, 33, 37 and 34 made field goals in their other four preseason tilts. The 76ers made good on 40-of-80 FG attempts in their opener against the Celtics. Boston simply shot the lights out in that contest as Philadelphia did limit it do just 82 FG attempts. Milwaukee has won three straight meetings here in Philadelphia. I look for that streak to end here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I expect this showdown between two NBA title contenders in the Mavs and Suns to have a bit of an old-school feel to it on Wednesday night, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Mavs played only three preseason games, allowing 32, 39 and 41 made field goals with the latter coming in a game where the Jazz got off 91 field goal attempts (and still scored only 101 points). For their part, the Mavs got off 85 or fewer FG attempts in all three games, knocking down 35, 35 and 38 field goals along the way. The Suns opened their preseason slate with a stunning 134-124 loss to the Adelaide 36ers. In three preseason tilts against NBA opposition they limited their foes to 82, 82 and 88 FG attempts with none of those teams knocking down more than 37 field goals. Offensively, the Suns topped out at 39 made field goals and that was in a game where they got off a whopping 105 FG attempts against the Lakers. Expect this 'battle of the titans' to have a defensive flavor on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). |
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10-19-22 | Blazers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may surprise you to find out that the Kings actually finished with a better record than the Blazers last season and were considerably stronger against the Western Conference. While Sacramento only held a three-game advantage over Portland overall, it was nine games better against the West. While I don't put a lot of stock in preseason results, there are exceptions to that rule. The Kings went a perfect 4-0 during their exhibition schedule, making good on 42, 45, 36 and 46 field goals in those four contests. The outlier was a game in Phoenix where they shot 41% from the field but still pulled out a one-point victory. On the flip side, the Kings did a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, something we're certainly not used to seeing when it comes to this franchise. Only one of their four preseason opponents got off 80+ field goal attempts and that was the Lakers in a game where they scored only 86 points on 29-of-81 shooting. There are a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to the Blazers offense, especially with the addition of Jerami Grant from the Pistons. Portland went winless against NBA opposition during the preseason (it did post a victory over Maccabi Ra'anana) and it wasn't pretty as it knocked down just 31, 36, 29 and 32 field goals, with the low-water mark coming in a 126-94 loss to the Kings. It's not as if Portland sent its 'B' squad to the court in that game against Sacramento either. Its starting five consisted of Nurkic, Grant, Simons, Lillard and Hart - likely the same lineup we'll see tonight. All five played 22+ minutes in that game against Sacramento. Maybe the Blazers 'flip the switch' on Wednesday but I'm not betting on it. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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10-19-22 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 215.5 | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams were 'filling it up' all preseason long and I expect more of the same as they match up in Wednesday's season-opener. The Bulls won three of their four preseason tilts, scoring at least 115 points in all four games. In those contests they knocked down 43, 50, 43 and 50 field goals, without any of those affairs being aided by overtime. Those are staggering results when you consider the pace most teams tend to play at during the preseason. Defensively, there are warts to deal with, however. Note that Chicago allowed its opponents to get off 93, 88, 96 and 92 field goal attempts in those four games. The Heat enjoyed a successful preseason as well, reeling off four straight victories after opening with a loss to the T'Wolves. Like the Bulls, their offense appeared to be in midseason form, making good on 42, 41, 37, 38 and 40 field goals. The pace Miami played at over the course of those five games was notable as it hoisted up 94+ FG attempts on three occasions. This is one of the lowest totals on Wednesday's board and I don't think it's warranted. Take the over (9*). |
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10-19-22 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Only one game separated these two teams near the Eastern Conference basement last season with Detroit holding that narrow advantage. Both franchises continue to look to the future. Here, in Tuesday's season-opener I believe the Pistons are being given a little too much respect. Detroit may have plenty of young talent on its roster but it couldn't get a stop in the preseason, allowing its four opponents to knock down 46, 38, 45 and 46 field goals. The outlier came in a contest the Pistons still lost by six points in New Orleans. On the flip side, the Pistons made good on just 33, 31, 35 and 40 field goals in those four games. The latter performance took a whopping 102 FG attempts to get there and Detroit still lost that contest by 15 points against Memphis. The Magic went 4-1 in the preseason and actually showed a pulse on defense, limiting the opposition to just 36, 34, 35, 37 and 35 made field goals. It yielded its opponents more than 82 FG attempts only once in those five games. We saw steady improvement from Orlando offensively over the course of the preseason, culminating with it knocking down 39+ field goals in each of its last three games. Now it gets a boost with the expected return of Jalen Suggs for Tuesday's opener. Take Orlando (8*). |
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10-18-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Warriors | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I love everything about the Lakers entering the new season, in a very strange sort of way. Consider them a beautiful mess under first-year head coach Darvin Ham. Here, we're catching more than a handful of points with Los Angeles in a spot few expect much out of it on the road against the defending champion Warriors. Of course, Golden State is a well-oiled machine but like I said, I'm more intrigued by the Lakers at this early stage of the season. There's room for improvement at the center position with Damian Jones, formerly of the Kings and Thomas Bryant, who comes over from the Wizards two true wild cards. Lebron James and Anthony Davis are healthy, for now. Russell Westbrook might be injured. He might start. He might come off the bench. Again, another complete wild card. And then there's the whole Pat Beverley situation. As odd as it may sound I believe it all adds up to a far more interesting and potentially improved Lakers squad and this is a perfect opportunity to make a statement right out of the gate. Interestingly, the Lakers check in 27-19 ATS the last 46 times they've played on the road with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Warriors are a mediocre 33-35 ATS in their last 68 contests when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm higher on the Celtics than some entering the new season and I like their chances of picking up a statement win against a division rival in Tuesday's home opener. While Boston's big offseason acquisition Danilo Gallinari is now sidelined for the season, the cupboard is still well-stocked. Robert Williams is also injured but there's depth at the power forward position with veteran Al Horford and Grant Williams, who showed some positive signs during the preseason. I also like the bench duo of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to make big strides this season. The 76ers went undefeated in four preseason games so the argument could be made that they're already in midseason form. I don't put a ton of stock in NBA preseason wins and losses though. I'm simply not as high on the 76ers depth as I am on the Celtics. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia has been outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points as a road underdog going back to the start of last season (20-game sample size). Take Boston (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -157 | 103-90 | Loss | -157 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'm not going to bother messing with the points in this one as we're being offered a reasonable enough price to back the Celtics on the moneyline. This series has appeared bound to go the distance since the opening tipoff and I've seen nothing to change my opinion on that, even with the Warriors winning the last two games in convincing fashion. Boston is back home for Game 6 on Thursday, where it has gone a perfect 3-0 following a loss in these playoffs and I'm confident we'll see it hold serve with a big bounce-back effort here. Keep in mind, the Celtics couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5 (31-of-75 shooting) yet still lost by 'only' 10 points. Golden State is just 3-5 when playing on the road off a win in these playoffs and I look for it to fall short again here. Take Boston moneyline (8*). |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Wednesday but it wasn't nearly as straightforward as it should have been with the fourth quarter totalling just 34 points. I expect to see some carry-over from that low-scoring quarter of basketball in Game 4 on Friday night. Credit the Celtics for doing a great job of keeping the explosive Warriors offense in check so far in this series. They've held Golden State to 88, 86 and 78 field goal attempts through the first three games. They've also limited the Warriors to fewer than 40 made field goals in all three contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Boston allowed an opponent to make good on 40+ field goals. On the flip side, note that Golden State has held eight straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Boston did knock down 43 field goals in Game 3 on Wednesday but we've seen positive responses from the Warriors defense in similar situations lately. The last three times they've allowed 40+ made field goals, the Warriors have held opponents to 34, 37 and 30 made field goals in their next game, yielding just 98 points per game in those three contests. The 'under' is 68-48 with Golden State coming off a loss over the last three seasons while the 'under' has gone 32-18 with Boston checking in as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case at the time of writing. We'll continue to go against the adjustments made to the total in this series and call for a lower-scoring contest than expected on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Finals First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State first half plus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors didn't play particularly well in Game 3 of this series as the 'zig-zag' trend continued. Here, I look for a positive response from Golden State, at least early in Game 4 on Friday night. Note that the Warriors are 30-15 ATS in the first half after suffering a loss by 15+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a woeful 5-15 ATS in the first half when playing at home off a home victory this season, outscored by 0.1 points on average in that spot. I'm not willing to bet against the Celtics making the necessary halftime adjustments at home should they fall behind early in this one, instead we'll grab the points with Golden State in the first 24 minutes on Friday. Take Golden State first half (10*). |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series and the 'under' in Game 2. Both results were of the 'rocking chair' variety. Here, we'll continue to follow the zig-zag pattern for another game and back the 'over' as the scene shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Wednesday. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series but still managed to score 108 and 107 points in those contests. Note that they haven't been held to less than 40 field goals in three consecutive games since March. After Golden State got off 88 and 86 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2 I could certainly see the pace ticking up a bit here in Beantown, noting that Boston allowed Miami to attempt 92 and 90 field goals in Games 3 and 4 at home last round. Boston has allowed the opposition to get off 88+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 games overall. Needless to say, the Celtics will be in bounce-back mode offensively after a dismal showing in Game 2. They managed to make good on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts in that contest after shooting a blistering 43-for-85 in Game 1. A return home should help, noting the C's have averaged 40 made field goals per contest at TD Garden this season. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams in Beantown saw neither team shoot particularly well with Golden State knocking down 39 field goals and Boston countering with 36, yet that contest still reached 218 total points. I believe an over-adjustment to the total has been made once again after the low-scoring result in Game 2. Take the over (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 61 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. We missed with our big play on the Warriors but did cash the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. That was obviously a painful loss as Golden State entered the fourth quarter with a 12-point lead but couldn't make it stand up. Chalk it up to a case of the Celtics simply not missing from beyond the arc. Boston knocked down 21 three-pointers in that contest - similar to what we saw in Game 2 last round against the Heat. You may remember how Game 3 went as Miami controlled proceedings from the opening tip and cruised to an outright underdog road win. Here, the Warriors will look to bounce back on their home floor and I expect them to do just that. Note that Golden State is 25-12 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.3 points on average in that situation. Boston made good on 43 field goals in Game 1 and that's notable as it hasn't posted consecutive 40+ field goal games since Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee back in the second round. Note that it lost the second of those games both SU and ATS. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 216 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 58 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Golden State at 8 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday. The pace certainly wasn't there for a game in the 220's on Thursday. Both teams simply shot exceptionally well from three-point range - Boston in particular as it knocked down a whopping 21 threes. We saw a similar story unfold in Game 2 last round against Miami as the Celtics hit 20+ three-pointers in a 127-point explosion. They never scored more than 103 points again in that seven-game series. Note that Boston allows just 12 made threes per game on the road this season while Golden State gives up an identical 12 threes per contest at home. The Celtics have now held nine of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - an incredible feat in today's NBA. The Warriors allowed Boston to make good on 43 field goals in the opener of this series but hasn't allowed consecutive opponents to hit more than 40 field goals since Game 5 against Memphis in the second round. In Game 6, Golden State held Memphis to just 96 points on 34 made field goals with that game easily staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 210.5 | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 84 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Celtics Eastern Conference Finals Game 7 win over the Heat, getting there despite the total being set in the 190's. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I expect this series between the C's and Warriors to play out much differently. The Celtics finally got off 80+ field goal attempts in Game 7 - 85 in fact - after being held under that number in four straight games against Miami. I'm sure the C's realize that they'll need to step up their offensive considerably against the Warriors as opposed to the banged-up Heat they faced last round. Golden State has incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of its last 21 games. While the Warriors last series against Dallas was played at a relatively slow-pace (in stark contrast to their second round series against Memphis), the 'over' still managed to cash in three of five games. Here, we're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw at any point in that series against the Mavs. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 36-22 with the Celtics checking in as an underdog over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 224.7 points. The 'over' is also a long-term 117-80 with Golden State seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent, as is the case here after Boston rolled to a 110-88 win here in San Francisco back in mid-March. Take the over (9*). |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I get the feeling this might be the best price we get to back the Warriors at home all series. We just won with Boston in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference Finals showdown against Miami. Of course, the Celtics struggled to put the Heat away late in the fourth quarter of that contest. We saw the C's and Warriors split two regular season matchups with each team winning on the other's home court. I expect a different story to unfold in the opener of this series, however. Note that Boston was held to 36 or fewer made field goals in six of seven games against Miami last round. It had a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting fewer than 80 field goals in five of the seven contests. The Warriors on the other hand have been locked-in offensively for months now. They enter this series having knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, they just held Dallas to 37 or fewer made field goals in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. After an up-tempo series against the Grizzlies, they limited the Mavericks to 86 or fewer FG attempts in all five games last round. Regardless how this series plays out pace-wise, I expect Golden State to be comfortable. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after dropping a lopsided 110-88 affair here in mid-March, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 197.5 | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. Have we transported back in time? That's what it feels like working with a total in the 190's in advance of Game 7 between the Celtics and Heat on Sunday. Of course, what else would you expect as we're talking about two of the league's best defensive teams with a chance to advance to the NBA Finals on the line. We actually won with the 'over', making that play on a considerably higher posted total on Friday. While that game ultimately cruised 'over' the total, we certainly saw glimpses of what is to come in Game 7. The Celtics were held to just 72 field goal attempts in that contest - the fourth straight game in which they were limited to fewer than 80 FG attempts. On the flip side, we finally saw Boston limit Miami's scoring opportunities, holding it to 78 FG attempts after yielding 90+ in each of the previous three games. Miami shot exceptionally well when it matter early and late in Friday's game and both teams got to the free throw line 25+ times. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however, as the officials 'let them play' a little more in this seventh-and-deciding game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 40-24 with Boston seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons while Miami has seen the 'under' go 14-4 when playing at home after losing two of its last three contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (9*). |
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05-29-22 | Celtics -140 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Heat in the first half (and the full game 'over') in Game 6 of this series on Friday night. I couldn't help but feel that the betting marketplace was missing the mark with Miami installed as a big underdog in a series where either team is capable of rising up and delivering a dominant performance in any given contest. The Heat did well to stave off elimination in Boston but I expect the Celtics to respond and deliver the knockout blow in Miami on Sunday. Note that the Celtics were finally able to limit the Heat's scoring opportunities somewhat on Friday night, holding them to a series-low 78 field goal attempts. Miami simply shot the lights out, relatively-speaking. It's been a bit of a slog for the Boston offense at times in this series, struggling to get out of the 70's in terms of field goal attempts per game. However, we have seen them shown the ability to shoot exceptionally well also. Off a poor shooting night on Friday, I'm certainly anticipating a strong bounce-back performance on Sunday. Rather than lay the points with the C's on the road here, we'll back them at a very reasonable price on the moneyline. Having cashed a number of tickets with the scrappy Heat in this series already, I do have plenty of respect for them and don't expect them to get their doors blown off by any means. Take Boston moneyline (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I think we're seeing a major overreaction when it comes to the total in Game 6 of this series after the last two games were exceptionally low-scoring (by today's NBA standards). While Game 5 totalled only 173 points, the pace was actually there - at least from the Heat as they got off a series-high 94 field goal attempts. They quite simply couldn't hit their shots. Now with their backs against the wall in Game 6, I'm confident we'll seem them bounce back on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Heat average an impressive 117.2 points per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, with that situation resulting in an average total of 221.4 points (12-game sample size). The Celtics have averaged 113.2 points per game off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 218.1 points (23-game sample size). Miami has held Boston to fewer than 80 FG attempts in three consecutive games. The last time that happened, Miami's next game totalled 222 points back on May 4th against Philadelphia. Take the over (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami first half plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat were embarrassed in the second half of Game 5 two nights ago, on their home floor no less. Most have completely written them off as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 6 - a potential elimination game for Miami having dug itself a 3-2 series hole. I do expect the Heat to come out fighting in this one, however, and will grab them with the generous handful of points in the first half on Friday night. Note that Miami has gone 13-5 ATS in the first half after losing consecutive games ATS this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive 5.3-point margin in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are a woeful 3-12 ATS in the first half when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories this season, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The last time we saw these teams meet in Boston in Game 4 the Celtics built an insurmountable 57-33 lead at halftime. The Heat did respond by leading by five at the half in Game 5 but it still wasn't enough as they couldn't keep it going in the second half. We won't worry about the second half on Friday, instead backing the Heat in the game's first 24 minutes as I expect them to give the Celtics their best punch, early on at least. Take Miami first half (10*). |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Simply put, the Mavericks haven't found enough scoring opportunities to truly stay competitive in this series, noting that they've been held to 86, 78, 75 and 82 field goal attempts through the first four games. Fortunately, they shot the lights out in Game 4, staving off elimination for one game at least. The problem is, they haven't been able to stop the Warriors offense. Golden State enters Game 5 on Thursday having made good on 41, 46, 46, 38 and 41 field goals over its last five games. Unlike the Mavs, who have been held to fewer than 80 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests, the Warriors have gotten off 80+ in 12 straight games. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.6 points on average in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game two nights ago in Boston - as we anticipated with a play on the first half 'under'. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the scene shifts back to Miami for Game 5 on Wednesday. Note that the Heat were held to just 30 made field goals in Game 4. That's happened just three times previously this season with the 'over' cashing in their next game each and every time, resulting in an average total of 226 points, including Game 4 last round against Philadelphia - a contest that flew over the posted total of 208 with 224 points. Also note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Celtics coming off a win by 15+ points this season, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 with Miami coming off a contest that totalled 190 points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 226.3 points scored in that spot. The Celtics have been a slightly better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, knocking down an average of 41 field goals per contest while for their part, the Heat average 40 made field goals per game at home. Take the over (9*). |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat had their doors blown off two nights ago in Boston, falling behind by an almost insurmountable deficit early and never recovering. That's not to say the opportunities weren't there, however. They actually got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss (compared to just 78 for the Celtics). In fact, the Celtics have been held to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the first four games of this series and haven't reached 90 field goal attempts in a game since back on April 10th in Memphis. Boston has gone 1-5 ATS after attempting fewer than 80 field goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons. Here, we'll also note that Miami checks in 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or less in a game this season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS when coming off a home win by 20+ points this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I get the feeling we're going to see both of these teams come out pretty loose with the series well in hand for the Warriors, up 3-0. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this series, and it wasn't as Golden State secured a 109-100 victory and we cashed our play on the 'under'. With that being said, the fact that the game still got to 209 points was impressive considering the Warriors got off 81 field goal attempts and the Mavericks countered with just 75. Here, I look for the pace to tick up, particularly early on, noting that the previous time we saw an 'under' result in this series, the next game (Game 2) saw a whopping 130 points scored in the first half. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 16-4 in the first half with the Warriors playing on the road with an opportunity to close out a playoff series, with that spot producing an average first half total of 116.0 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the first half 'over' go 22-10 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average first half total of 115.5 points. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in each of the first three games of this series, not to mention the first half 'over' as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. The last two games have seen these two teams take turns shooting the lights out. First it was a three-point barrage from the Celtics down 1-0 in the series in Game 2 and then an early all-out shooting assault from the Heat back in Boston in Game 3. Now, however, both teams are dealing with some key injuries with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum among those getting banged-up in Game 3 on Saturday. Both will likely play on Monday but whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate. Note that the three regular season meetings between these two teams totalled just 84, 99 and 105 first half points - all staying 'under' the number we're dealing with tonight. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season, leading to an average first half total of just 98.3 points. The Heat have posted a very long-term 104-146 o/u mark in the first half across all playoff games over the last number of years. Take the first half under (10*). |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 219 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring affair on Friday. Dallas got off just 78 field goal attempts in that game - the third time in the last five games it has been held to 78 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Golden State shot the lights out for the second straight game; an identical 46-of-82 shooting to what we saw in Game 1 in fact. Note that the Mavs have only allowed consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals once previously in these playoffs. In their next game they held the Suns to just 94 points in a game that didn't even reach 200 (103-94 final score at home in Game 3 last round). While the Warriors do average 40 made field goals per contest on the road this season, they'll face a tough challenge here with Dallas allowing just 38-of-84 shooting on its home floor. Likewise, the Mavs average 39 made field goals on 85 attempts at home this season but will be up against a Warriors team that can play some defense as well, yielding their opponents just 39 made field goals on 86 attempts per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 72-48 with the Warriors playing on the road off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-1 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110+ points this season, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. You're not going to win many games when your opponent knocks down 20+ three-pointers and the Heat found that out first hand on Thursday night. I do think we see Miami throw that result away and come back strong as the series shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Saturday, however. The Celtics aren't going to shoot the lights out again from long range here. Note that Miami has held opponents to an average of 37-of-84 shooting including 13 made threes per game on the road this season. The Heat, despite not holding serve in the first two games at home, have done a good job of limiting the Celtics opportunities, allowing 79 and 84 field goal attempts heading into Game 3. In fact, the C's have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 13 consecutive games - a big reason they've gone just 2-3 ATS as a favorite over that stretch. Miami has now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games to open this series. It hasn't been kept under that number in three straight contests since March 23rd-26th. With that being said, I expect a positive response from the Heat here, noting that they've gone 18-6 ATS in an underdog role this season and check in 16-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mavericks not surprisingly struggled to get back up for Game 1 of this series after overcoming the top-seeded Suns in a come-from-behind victory last round. We won with the Warriors two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Mavs here. Dallas actually did an alright job of slowing the Warriors offense in Game 1, holding it to just 82 field goal attempts. The Warriors quite simply shot the lights out. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here, however, noting that Golden State similarly shot 64% in a 142-112 Game 3 rout of Memphis last round before knocking down just 40% of its shots while eking out a 101-98 victory in Game 4. We know the Mavs are capable of better defensively, noting that they've held 10 of their last 14 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, going 9-5 ATS while suffering consecutive ATS losses only once over that stretch. Here, we'll also point out that Dallas is 9-1 ATS when coming off a loss by 20+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.2 points in that situation. Golden State has now held consecutive opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - the first time it has accomplished that feat all playoffs. It has also posted back-to-back ATS victories for the first time since starting its opening round series against Denver with three in a row. Take Dallas (8*). |
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05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 214.5 | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Friday. While the Mavericks were blown out by 25 points in that game, the pace was actually probably to their liking. They limited the Warriors to just 82 field goal attempts in that game (I realize the lopsided nature of the contest had something to do with that) but Golden State quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 46 of those attempts. One thing was evident in that game - this series isn't likely to be the same up-tempo matchup that we saw from the Warriors and Grizzlies last round. In that series, the Warriors got off 90+ field goal attempts in four of six games while allowing Memphis to attempt 91 or more field goals in all six contests. The Mavs, despite trailing by a considerable margin most of the way, only attempted 86 field goals in Game 1 of this series - pretty much par for the course as they've averaged 84 FG attempts per game on the road this season. While we can anticipate Dallas shooting better than it did in the series-opener (it made good on just 31 field goals), how much better remains to be seen as it did put up only 87 points on Wednesday despite a whopping 48 three-point attempts (it made 11) and 21 trips to the free throw line (five more than the Warriors). Perhaps a more conservative offensive gameplan will serve it well here, as I look for Dallas to lean on a much better defensive performance than we saw in the opener. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they scored 90 or fewer points over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 204.5 points. The 'under' is also 24-11 with Dallas seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 212.0 points. Take the under (8*). |
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05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 208 | 127-102 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series as the oddsmakers quite simply missed the mark with a total just north of 200 points. Now I believe the betting marketplace has overreacted the other way, pushing this total closer to 210 points. Game 1 saw undisciplined defensive efforts from both teams, leading to a combined 66 free throw attempts. I expect nothing of the sort in Game 2 on Thursday. Both teams are fully capable of playing tough defense without needing to foul on every other possession. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring contest in the series-opener, noting that the Celtics got off just 79 field goal attempts while the Heat got off only 80. Boston has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in three straight and five of its last seven games overall. On the flip side, however, the C's have held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals in eight straight games. You would have to go all the way back to Game 1 of the playoffs against Brooklyn to find the last time a C's opponent knocked down more than 41 field goals. The Heat have been even tougher defensively. They've limited nine consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in six of those nine games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Mavericks for rallying back from a 3-2 series deficit to oust the Suns in seven games, delivering an incredible knockout punch on the road in Game 7 on Sunday. There's no question, Dallas has been at its best when facing adversity in these playoffs (Game 2 without Luka Doncic in round one against Utah and Game 3 after digging an 0-2 hole last round against Phoenix come to mind). Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Mavs best punch as both teams feel their way around Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State has the benefit of playing at home, where it has gone 37-10 this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game, and also checks in well-rested but not likely rusty following just four off days. I like the fact that the Warriors come in seeking revenge for consecutive losses against the Mavs, noting that they've gone 24-12 ATS when playing with 'double-revenge' over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average along the way. For their part, the Mavs check in just 4-6 ATS when coming off an outright underdog road victory this season, as is the case here, and 1-3 ATS when following up consecutive wins by 15+ points. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Boston at 8:45 pm et on Tuesday. I think there was a somewhat common line of thinking that whichever team prevailed in the Bucks vs. Celtics series would likely go on to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. I don't feel the Heat are deserving of that disrespect - after all, we're talking about the number-one seed in the East and a team that has for the most part cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Here, we're able to back Miami at a very short price despite the fact that it is home and rested while the Celtics are just one day removed from Game 7 of a grueling series against the defending champion Bucks. Note that while the Heat have shown they can prevail in any type of environment, winning high-scoring and low-scoring affairs, the Celtics are actually 0-2 SU and ATS when being held to 101 points or less in these playoffs. Miami has given up fewer than 100 points in seven of 11 games in these playoffs. While I'm not saying this one will turn into a slugfest, I do like the Heat's depth and flexibility regardless the type of contest that plays out on Tuesday. Note that Miami had at least five players score in double-figures in consecutive victories to close out the Sixers last round - a much different story than the Celtics last opponent, the Bucks, who obviously relied heavily on Giannis to do it all. Take Miami (9*). |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*). |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen these two teams trade blowouts over the last two games and I won't be surprised if we see more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday as the Suns return home looking to close out the Mavs. Dallas has reached a high-water mark of 40 made field goals in this series, failing to reach that number in any of the last three contests. In fact, the Suns have held the Mavs to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the six games in this series. Meanwhile, Phoenix is coming off its ugliest shooting performance of the series in Game 6. We expected a response from the Mavs in that game and saw exactly that as they locked down the Suns potent offense. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, noting that the Suns are a terrific 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.9 points on average in that situation. They're also 24-11 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.0 points in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Celtics (free play) in Game 6 of this series on Friday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and grab the points with the Bucks as the series shifts back to Beantown for a seventh-and-deciding game on Sunday afternoon. I really like the job the Bucks have done defensively in this series, even if it hasn't always translated to victories. They've held the Celtics to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all six games so far. Were it not for they themselves being unable knock down their shots on Friday night, we would probably already be talking about the Bucks moving on to their next opponent. Save for a blowout defeat in Game 2 in Boston, Milwaukee has been able to get loose offensively, getting off 90+ FG attempts in four of six games in this series. And we've already seen the Bucks respond favorably in games they've 'needed' in this series, taking the series-opener by double-digits, grabbing the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 at home and then rallying to steal a pivotal Game 6 back in Boston. Expect the battle-tested Bucks to step up again here, noting that the Celtics are a woeful 6-18 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). |