Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-15-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga +5.5 | Top | 76-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga plus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Friday. Needless to say, Gonzaga has had this rematch circled on its calendar after falling by an 82-54 score against Connecticut last March. The Bulldogs get this game in their own backyard at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and with an upset loss against in-state rival Washington last Saturday fresh in their minds, I look for them to make a statement here. While Connecticut does rank an impressive fourth in the country according to KenPom, it has also faced only the 321st most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). Gonzaga ranks 11th in the country, taking a hit following last week's defeat against Washington. Note that the Bulldogs have gone up against the 86th toughest slate of opponents this season. Gonzaga is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a home win but non-cover, as is the case here. UConn on the other hand is just 30-34 ATS in its last 64 contests following a victory by 30 or more points, which is also the situation on Friday. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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12-15-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 212 | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of the Rockets 117-104 win at home two nights ago. Houston continues to get it done, riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak, despite a rather limited offense that has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in five straight contests. Defensively, Houston has been on point, limiting 10 of its last 12 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals with its last two foes knocking down only 31 and 35 field goals. Jaren Jackson picked up the offensive slack in Desmond Bane's absence in Houston, pouring in 44 points. It remains to be seen whether Bane will return on Friday but if he does, we can anticipate Johnson taking a bit of a backseat offensively so that essentially results in status-quo in terms of point production. The Grizzlies have gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games. The only time they topped that mark they hoisted up 91 FG attempts in a 116-point performance against the lowly Pistons. Defensively, Memphis has held Houston to 40 and 39 made field goals in two previous meetings this season and has limited the opposition to just 82 FG attempts per game here at home. Note that the 'under' is 18-7 in Memphis' last 25 games following consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-15-23 | Magic +6 v. Celtics | 111-128 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. In an odd scheduling quirk, the Magic enter this tilt in Boston well-rested following three off days (they last played on Monday at home against Cleveland). The Celtics have played twice since then, including last night as they were forced to use up much of what they had in the tank holding off a late push from the Cavaliers. This certainly isn't a favorable matchup at the best of times for Boston as Orlando has won each of the last four meetings, including two straight matchups here in Beantown. Note that the Celtics are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here after they dropped a 113-96 decision in Orlando on November 24th. Meanwhile, the Magic are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games when priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-14-23 | Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
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12-14-23 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. I'll admit my first reaction was to grab the points with the Timberwolves in this game as they look to bounce back following Monday's lopsided defeat in New Orleans. After taking a deeper look, I think the better play is on the 'under' on Thursday night in Dallas. Minnesota has really clamped down defensively in recent games, holding six of its last seven opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In three meetings with the Mavericks last season, the T'Wolves held them to just 84, 75 and 76 field goal attempts. Dallas is no better-suited to take advantage of Minnesota here with a number of key contributors either sidelined or banged-up. I do like the fact that both teams come in rested with the T'Wolves idle since Monday and the Mavs having last played on Tuesday here at home against the Lakers. While Minnesota has been rolling, it hasn't necessarily been blowing the doors off the opposition, knocking down 44 or fewer field goals in 15 consecutive games. While the 'over' has gone 8-3 in its 11 road games this season, those contests have averaged just 226.6 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-23 | Nets +2.5 v. Suns | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets didn't get this road trip off to the start they had hoped for, dropping a 13-point decision in Sacramento on Sunday. I look for them to get back on track on Wednesday, however, as they have a major rest advantage against a Suns squad that looked like it used everything it had in the tank in last night's thrilling win over the Warriors. Brooklyn has quietly been one of the best bets in the league this season, going 16-5-1 ATS. Few have paid much attention but the Nets check in sporting a winning record with Sunday's defeat in Sacramento marking just their second loss in their last eight contests. Note that the Nets are a long-term 70-39 ATS against Pacific Division opponents and 8-1 ATS when coming off a loss this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks have obviously had this game circled since dropping an ugly one against the Pacers in the in-season tournament semi-final round last week. In fact, Indiana has taken both previous matchups between these two teams this season. Neither of those games were played in Milwaukee, however. The Bucks are 11-1 at home this season while the Pacers have given up just shy of 132 points per game on the road. Note that the Bucks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games as a favorite of six points or less. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Milwaukee is a long-term 27-20 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and 24-19 ATS in its last 43 games following consecutive ATS defeats, which is also the situation here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-12-23 | Nuggets v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls have quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories, including last night's near-miss in a four-point overtime loss in Milwaukee. Yes, Chicago is missing some key contributors, including Zach LaVine but others like Demar Derozan and Coby White have more than picked up the slack. This isn't a team that is going to get blown out often as it has held an incredible 20 of its last 21 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Nuggets are an excellent defensive team in their own right, they've yielded more than 44 made field goals twice in their last six games alone. Denver did deliver a win and cover in Atlanta last night but that only served to snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak. Note that the Nuggets are long-term losers playing the second of back-to-back nights having gone 210-258 ATS going all the way back to 1996. Denver did take the first meeting between these two teams by a 123-101 score in the Mile High City back in November. It hasn't won consecutive matchups with the Bulls since 2021, going 2-3 SU in the last five meetings. Prior to a 126-103 win in Chicago last November, Denver hadn't won a game at the United Center by more than six points since 2018. Take Chicago (10*). |
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12-12-23 | Tenn-Martin v. NC State -19.5 | 67-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Tennessee-Martin at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Wolfpack have righted the ship with back-to-back wins (and covers) against Boston College and Maryland-Eastern Shore following a three-game ATS slide in late November. I look for the Wolfpack to continue their ascension leading up to a big showdown with Tennessee on Saturday. N.C. State has climbed to 70th in the KenPom national rankings on the strength of consecutive strong offensive showings. I expect the Wolfpack to lay waste to one of the worst defensive teams in the country on Tuesday, noting Tennessee-Martin ranks 321st in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that Tennessee-Martin is a long-term 44-73 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 points or more, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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12-11-23 | Cavs v. Magic -2 | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Cavaliers off Friday's road win over the Heat. Orlando is off to a terrific 15-7 start this season but just snapped a two-game skid with Friday's rout of the lowly Pistons. This is a quick revenge spot for the Magic after they suffered a 10-point loss in Cleveland last week. The Cavs are fresh off consecutive ATS wins but it's worth noting that marks their longest ATS winning streak this season. They're 0-2 ATS following back-to-back ATS wins this season, missing covers by 32 and 20 points in those two contests. Note that Orlando is 32-20 ATS in its last 52 home games. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Michigan +4 v. Iowa | 90-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan plus the points over Iowa at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. The Wolverines are stacking up losses right now, fresh off three straight defeats including a stunner at home against Big Ten rival Indiana earlier this week. It's been a similar story for Iowa as it has dropped consecutive games and checks in 1-5 ATS over its last six contests. The difference is, while the Wolverines have at least been competitive in all but one of their five losses this season, the Hawkeyes have had their doors blown off on three occasions, including in each of their last two contests against Purdue and rival Iowa State. Iowa has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over Michigan since reeling off five consecutive wins over the Wolverines from 2014 to 2017. Note that Michigan is 29-15 ATS in its last 44 road games after losing five or six of its last seven contests, as is the case here. Take Michigan (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The underdog has gone an incredible 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series and I believe the Pacers are well-positioned to keep that run going on Saturday. The Lakers impressed in the semi-final round two nights ago, blasting New Orleans by a whopping 44 points. Indiana might have been even more impressive, dominating the Bucks in a 128-119 victory. The Lakers have now held three straight opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals but I think there's a good chance the Pacers overwhelm them with their offense here, noting that Indiana has knocked down 42 or more field goals in an incredible 17 straight games. The Lakers have reached that number of higher just twice in their last six games. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 37-57 ATS when coming off an ATS victory and a woeful 5-15 ATS in its last 20 contests after winning four of its last five games ATS, as is the case here. Take Indiana (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Indiana v. Auburn -6 | 76-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Indiana at 2 pm et on Saturday. Indiana picked up a massive win on the road against Michigan last time out. I expect the Hoosiers to fall flat on Saturday, however, as they stay on the road to face SEC foe Auburn. The Tigers will be in a foul mood after dropping a 69-64 decision as 7.5-point favorites on the road against Appalachian State on Sunday. Prior to that, Auburn had reeled off five straight victories, including three ATS wins in its last four games. Indiana has delivered three consecutive ATS wins following an 0-4-1 ATS start. Note that this is only the third time this season the Hoosiers have been in an underdog role. I don't expect them to catch Auburn flat-footed the way they did against Michigan. Note that Indiana is a long-term 60-92 ATS in its last 152 road games following consecutive ATS victories. Take Auburn (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Kings -1.5 v. Suns | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings have an extra day of rest advantage here after they bowed out of the in-season tournament with a disappointing home loss against the Pelicans on Monday. They've now lost four of their last seven games but I like their chances of bouncing back against the Suns on Friday. Phoenix is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS over its last four contests. Bradley Beal has yet to make much of a contribution at all due to injury while Kevin Durant is now sidelined as well. Durant's absence has obviously been factored into the line but as a whole, the Suns have struggled offensively, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in four straight games. Note that the Kings are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a home defeat and have proven to be road warriors, going 35-19 ATS in their last 54 contests away from home. The Suns are 23-28 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog and 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests as a home underdog of six points or less. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Cavs -0.5 v. Heat | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Just a simple fade of the Heat off their 'upset' win in Toronto on Wednesday. Miami hasn't exactly been blowing the opposition off the floor at home this season, going 5-3 in South Beach but an even 119.2 points apiece in terms of scoring average. Note that the Heat are just 27-40 ATS in their last 67 games following a SU win and 19-34 ATS in their last 53 contests coming off an ATS victory. The Cavaliers got off to a slow start this season but have since gone 8-3 over their last 11 games including an impressive double-digit victory over the upstart Magic on Wednesday. Letdowns haven't really been a problem for the Cavs as they're 35-23 ATS in their last 58 games following a double-digit victory. Also note that Cleveland will be seeking revenge for a 33-point home loss against Miami suffered back in November. Note that the Cavs have gone a perfect 2-0 ATS the only two times they've been in a similar revenge spot over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Knicks +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-133 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks have played just once since last Friday as they got drilled by the Bucks in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Monday. Milwaukee simply couldn't miss in that game, shooting a blistering 60% from the field. I'm confident we'll see the scrappy Knicks respond in this divisional road contest on Friday. They're set up well having gone a long-term 71-44 ATS when coming off a game in which the opposition shot 55% or better from the field. This is a revenge spot for the Knicks as well after they suffered a lopsided 16-point defeat in Boston back in November. Note that New York checks in 6-5 on the road this season where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points. Boston has dropped the cash in consecutive games and is just 2-7 ATS over its last nine contests. It's difficult to cover these lofty spreads when you're playing as loose as the Celtics are defensively. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in six of their last eight games. Take New York (10*). |
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12-07-23 | Pelicans v. Lakers -1.5 | 89-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers aren't likely to be competing for the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June but they do have a good chance to take the inaugural in-season tournament title in Las Vegas. Los Angeles checks in 10-4 over its last 14 games but did survive a comeback scare against the Suns in the quarter-final round. New Orleans on the other hand got an incredible performance from Brandon Ingram to surge past the Kings two nights ago. The Pelicans have been shooting the lights out but are playing with a rather slim margin for error in my opinion as they've gotten off 88, 78, 85, 82 and 87 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The Lakers can play some defense having held three of their last four and five of their last eight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that New Orleans is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games played away from home following a double-digit upset win, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-06-23 | Pittsburgh -3.5 v. West Virginia | 80-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Pitt should be fuming off consecutive home losses against Missouri and Clemson. While those were two tough games, you have to imagine the Panthers figured they could at least earn a split (or better). That wasn't the case so now they hit the road looking to get back on track against West Virginia on Wednesday. The Mountaineers are in a bit of a reset year with no returning starters from last year's team. It's a much different story for Pitt, which has been slowly rebuilding under head coach Jeff Capel and last season went 24-12, eventually bowing out as an 11-seed in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia is off to a 3-4 start in the first year of the post-Bob Huggins era under the guidance of new head coach Josh Eilert. After eking out a win over Bellarmine (by four points), the Mountaineers fell by six against St. John's last time out as their four-game homestand continued. This is a matchup the Panthers have likely had circled after dropping an ugly 81-56 decision at home against West Virginia last season. The Mountaineers were road favorites in that game but the shoe is on the other foot this time around and I expect to see a different result. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-06-23 | 76ers -9.5 v. Wizards | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers are coming off consecutive losses but essentially played with their 'B' squad last time out against Boston (and still managed to cover the spread). Here, we should see Philadelphia back at full strength (or close to it) following a four-day layoff. To say Wizards opponents have been stuffing the boxscore would be an understatement. They've allowed 43 or more made field goals in 10 straight games with three opponents knocking down more than 50 field goals over that stretch. I worry about their offense in this particular spot against an elite 76ers defense (and a rested one at that). Note that Washington scored 120 or more points in each of its last three games but all of those came on the road. Interestingly, the Wiz have averaged just 112.9 points per game at home this season, nearly four points per game below their season scoring average. Philadelphia has held its last three opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts with only one of those foes managing to break 40 made field goals. On the road this season, the Sixers have employed a smothering defense, yielding just 40-of-85 shooting on average. Even in a game where Philadelphia didn't bring the proper level of defensive intensity against the Wizards back on November 6th (it allowed Washington to make good on 49-of-96 field goal attempts) it will won by 18 points. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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12-05-23 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I just don't see the sort of track meet developing that most are expecting as the Suns and Lakers do battle in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Tuesday. The Lakers have already taken the first two meetings between these teams this season and if the Suns want to change the outcome here, they'll likely have to win ugly, noting they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of their last six games. The good news is, the Lakers don't figure to really push the pace. They've hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 18 straight games. They've managed to connect on more than 40 field goals just once in their last four contests and that came against the hapless Pistons. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 123-93 in Lakers home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-23 with the Suns seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -7 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Indiana is probably feeling pretty good about itself following three straight wins, including an impressive double-digit win and cover at home against Maryland last Friday. I think the Hoosiers will get caught in a letdown on Tuesday, however, as they run into a Michigan squad desperate for a win off back-to-back losses against Texas Tech and Oregon. While the Wolverines are 1-4 over their last five games, only the loss to Long Beach State (a good team in its own right) was truly disappointing. The other four games over that stretch all saw closing lines of fewer than three points - in other words, they all could have gone either way. Looking at the positives, Michigan did score a whopping 83 points on the road against a good Oregon team last time out. KenPom still has the Wolverines ranked 20 spots higher than the Hoosiers at 49th in the country. With a tough road game against Iowa on deck, this is the spot for the Wolverines to turn it around. Note that Indiana is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 lined road games and a long-term 41-66 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Michigan, meanwhile, is a long-term 55-35 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less, which is also the situation here. Take Michigan (10*). |
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12-05-23 | George Mason v. Tennessee -15 | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over George Mason at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. George Mason is a good team but it is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time in Knoxville on Tuesday. The Volunteers are coming off three straight losses including a disappointing 100-92 defeat on the road against North Carolina last Wednesday. Having had nearly a week off to stew on that poor performance, I look for a massive response from the Vols here. Remember, Tennessee was a perfect 4-0 at one point with quality wins over Wisconsin and Syracuse and a near-miss against Purdue. George Mason hasn't really played anyone yet and will be taking a big step up in class following Saturday's win on the road against Toledo. Note that Tennessee is a long-term 95-69 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS defeats, as is the case here. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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12-04-23 | Pelicans v. Kings -4 | 127-117 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over New Orleans at 10 pm et on Monday. New Orleans has lost three straight games, both SU and ATS, on the road and is a miserable 1-6 in its last seven contests away from home. The Kings should relish the opportunity to face the Pelicans here in the in-season tournament quarter-final round as it gives them a shot at revenge after dropping a pair of games in New Orleans earlier in the campaign. Sacramento is a different team now, healthy and able to hang with the league's elite, as we saw on Saturday against Denver. Noting that the Kings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here, we'll confidently back them tonight. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh -1 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Clemson at 2 pm et on Sunday. Clemson is ripe for a letdown on Sunday following its big upset win on the road against Alabama back on Tuesday. The Tigers took advantage of a struggling Crimson Tide defense in that contest but shouldn't be so fortunate on Sunday as they stay on the road to face a Pitt defense that ranks 46th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Panthers offense was a no-show against Missouri last time out, perhaps dealing with a letdown of their own following a blowout win over Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Pitt bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-02-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. I like the Lakers to bounce back following Thursday's no-show in Oklahoma City. The Rockets had the wind taken out of their sails in a double-digit loss in Denver on Wednesday. Houston is now an even 8-8 on the season following consecutive losses to open this road trip. Note that the Rockets are now 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog, outscored by an average margin of 12.2 points in that situation. I believe there's still considerable regression in order for Houston as it is off to a better start to the season than most anticipated. The Lakers have been a mixed bag, but playing at home with rest and with a difficult matchup against the Suns on deck, I look for them to prevail here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-02-23 | USC v. Gonzaga -3.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over USC at 10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for Gonzaga as it looks to show out in front of the Vegas crowd against USC on Saturday. The Bulldogs have actually dropped the cash in consecutive games but I like the bounce-back spot in that regard here. USC hasn't been anything special this season, splitting its step-up games against Kansas State and Oklahoma. Gonzaga is a true national title contender once again this season in my opinion but I don't think we've seen its best effort just yet. Note that the Bulldogs are 8-1 when coming off a home game in which they won SU but failed to cover ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 25.7 points in that situation. Take Gonzaga (8*). |
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12-02-23 | Washington +4.5 v. Colorado State | 81-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday. It would be difficult for the Washington basketball team not to gain some inspiration from the Huskies football team, which won the final Pac-12 Championship with a thrilling upset victory over Oregon, right here in Las Vegas, last night. On Saturday, the Huskies will look to stage an upset of their own on the hardwood as they take on undefeated Colorado State in this neutral court affair. I like Washington's chances of overwhelming the Rams with its up-tempo style, currently ranked 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Huskies have plenty of room to grow as they currently sit 58th in the nation in terms of KenPom's overall rankings. Colorado State, off to a perfect start to the campaign as I mentioned, is likely in line for some regression, currently ranked a lofty 22nd in the country, also according to KenPom. Take Washington (8*). |
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12-01-23 | Knicks +1.5 v. Raptors | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Knicks at a discount here thanks to them playing last night at home against Detroit. The trip to Toronto is anything but gruelling and I won't hesitate to fade the Raptors off Wednesday's win over the Suns. Toronto has strung together three straight home victories after starting the campaign with four losses in its first four games at Scotiabank Arena. Still, the Raptors are a losing team on the season at 9-10 and they'll be in tough here as they look for a third straight win over the Knicks for the first time since 2021-22. New York is a long-term winner on the road at 35-20 ATS in its last 55 contests in enemy territory. After this game the Knicks will have three days off before wrapping up this two-game road trip with a difficult game in Milwaukee. Look for New York to 'empty the tank' on Friday. Take New York (8*). |
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11-30-23 | Clippers v. Warriors -5 | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. Last night in Sacramento, the Clippers laid waste to the same Kings that just defeated the Warriors two nights ago. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Thursday as Golden State has the rest advantage. The Warriors are just 3-6 at home this season but I would certainly anticipate them turning that record around sooner rather than later. Note that despite last night's win, the Clippers remain just 3-6 on the road. Golden State is 21-8 in its last 29 home games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that situation. The Warriors are also 27-14 ATS in their last 41 home games when listed as a favorite of six points or less. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Boston College +2 v. Vanderbilt | 80-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Vanderbilt at 9:15 pm et on Wednesday. This line doesn't add up as Boston College heads out on the road to face Vanderbilt on Wednesday. The Eagles have actually faced the considerably more difficult schedule to this point this season - 157th toughest in the nation according to KenPom compared to Vandy's 298th ranking in that department. Yet Boston College has knocked down five more field goals per game (on the same number of additional field goal attempts) while holding the opposition to one less made field goal on one fewer attempt per contest. Take Boston College (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -4 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Utah at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are mired in an incredible shooting slump, knocking down 37 or fewer field goals in each of their last four games - all losses (1-3 ATS). Of course, they've also faced a tough schedule over that stretch, going up against the Celtics, Rockets (who are much improved defensively), Suns and Timberwolves. The good news is, the Jazz will come knocking on Wednesday and Utah has been one of the league's worst defensive teams this season. The Jazz check in having allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Utah has connected on 38 or fewer field goals itself in four consecutive games. This is a double-revenge spot for the Grizzlies after the Jazz took each of the first two meetings this season. Also note that this is a critical spot for Memphis to bag a victory as it will head out on the road for a difficult back-to-back set in Dallas and Phoenix next. Take Memphis (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State | 72-79 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bradley minus the points over Murray State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I like Bradley as it heads out on the Missouri Valley Conference road to face Murray State on Wednesday. The Braves have faced the considerably tougher schedule this season according to KenPom - 122nd most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. In stark contrast, the Racers have faced just the 259th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Bradley has connected on just two fewer field goals per game on five fewer field goal attempts while holding opponents to five fewer made field goals on the same number of field goal attempts allowed. Take Bradley (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over North Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Wednesday. It's early in the season but this is a big spot for the Volunteers as they check in off consecutive losses against Purdue and Kansas in Hawaii. Tennessee has had a full week off to stew on that most recent defeat at the hands of the Jayhawks and I like the way the Vols match up against the Tar Heels on Wednesday. North Carolina has pushed the pace and shot reasonably well, knocking down 28 or more field goals in five of six games so far this season. Here, they'll run into the nation's top-ranked team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in Tennessee. While the Vols have gone up against the 15th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season, the Tar Heels have faced the 127th. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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11-29-23 | American v. Harvard -8.5 | 75-80 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Harvard minus the points over American at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands here as Harvard hosts American U on Wednesday. American has faced only the 330th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season according to KenPom. Compare that with Harvard, which has gone up against the 87th toughest slate of opponents. Despite that, the Crimson have averaged two more made field goals on the same number of field goal attempts per game. On seven fewer three-point attempts per contest the Crimson have knocked down just two fewer three-point field goals. Defensively, Harvard has yielded two fewer made field goals per game on seven more field goal attempts per contest. The Crimson roll on Wednesday. Take Harvard (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Gardner-Webb -1.5 v. Queens NC | 80-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gardner-Webb minus the points over Queens at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Gardner-Webb has quietly faced the 11th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Queens has gone up against the 208th toughest slate of opponents. With that said, both teams check in sporting identical 3-4 records. All records aren't created equal though. Gardner-Webb has made good on two more field goals on one fewer field goal attempt per game than Queens while holding the opposition to seven fewer made field goals per contest. Queens has yielded those seven additional made field goals per game on only eight additional field goal attempts. Take Gardner-Webb (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Buffalo v. James Madison -21 | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This game has rout written all over it as James Madison hosts Buffalo on Wednesday. The Bulls have faced just the 258th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom yet they've gone a miserable 1-5 through six games. Meanwhile, James Madison has gone up against the 118th toughest slate of opponents and check in a perfect 6-0. The Dukes are averaging a whopping nine more made field goals per game compared to the Bulls, on just 11 additional field goal attempts per contest. Defensively, JMU has allowed four fewer made field goals per game on two additional attmepts. Take James Madison (8*). |
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11-29-23 | VMI +4.5 v. Navy | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on VMI plus the points over Navy at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the underdog Keydets as they face Navy on Wednesday. VMI checks in just 2-5 on the season but it has faced a fairly difficult schedule - the 110th toughest in the nation according to KenPom. Navy is 0-4 yet has faced only the 250th most difficult schedule by the same metrics. Note that the Keydets are averaging a whopping 10 more made field goals per game than the Midshipmen, despite getting off just six additional field goal attempts. From three-point range, VMI is knocking down two more shots while attempting just one more than Navy. It's a similar story defensively. VMI has held opponents to just 25 made field goals per game - just one more than Navy despite allowing nine additional field goal attempts per contest. VMI took this matchup by eight points as an 11-point home favorite last season. That 'revenge' angle is a big reason why Navy is installed as a considerable favorite at home on Wednesday. I believe the Midshipmen are laying too many points. Take VMI (10*). |
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11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2 | Top | 123-124 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings enter this game with double-revenge on their minds having dropped both previous matchups with the Warriors this season. That comes on the heels of a hard-fought seven-game series last April. There has really been little separating these two teams, noting the most recent matchup went right down to the wire with the Warriors prevailing by a single point in San Francisco on November 1st. Since then, the Kings have gotten healthier with De'Aaron Fox returning to the lineup. They snapped a two-game slide with a dominant 124-111 win over the red hot Timberwolves in Minnesota on Friday. The Warriors are coming off a less impressive victory (but non-cover) at home against the rebuilding Spurs on Saturday. Note that Golden State is mired in an 0-7-1 ATS slide. I think their better opportunity to snap out of that funk comes on Thursday night at home against the Clippers. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 road games following a win. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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11-28-23 | NC State +1.5 v. Ole Miss | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Ole Miss at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Even as they come off consecutive ATS losses including their first SU defeat of the season against BYU last time out, I'm high on this Wolfpack squad and like their chances of handing Ole Miss its first loss of the campaign on Tuesday. Ole Miss is off to a perfect 5-0 start to head coach Chris Beard's tenure yet it checks in winless ATS at 0-5. The Rebels rank 33rd in the country in luck rating according to KenPom, meaning they're undoubtedly not quite as good as their flawless record indicates. In fact, KenPom has the Rebels 73 spots behind N.C. State in the overall rankings. Home court does matter and this will be N.C. State's first true road game of the season. However, we'll note that Ole Miss is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a victory and 7-17 ATS in its last 24 lined home games when listed as a favorite. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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11-27-23 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Jazz | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Jazz took the opener of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday but I look for the Pelicans to answer back on Monday. Utah snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory. Despite the win, it remains in a bit of a funk offensively having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three straight contests. New Orleans entered Saturday's game on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run. The Pelicans had made good on more than 40 field goals in seven straight contests prior to Saturday's poor performance. They also enter Monday's game having held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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11-25-23 | 76ers v. Thunder +1.5 | 127-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Philadelphia at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. As much as I hate to fade the 76ers coming off a loss, there’s just too much upside to ignore with the 11-4 Thunder. I think this is a bit of a tough spot for Philadelphia to get up for in an early start on Saturday, even coming off that double-digit defeat in Minnesota. While the Thunder’s offense may grab the headlines, their defense has been on point as they check in ranked top-five in the league in defensive rating. That matched up with a top-five scoring offense is tough to beat. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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11-24-23 | Spurs v. Warriors -10.5 | 112-118 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over San Antonio at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a big spot for the Warriors as they look to start to turn things around after yet another loss suffered two nights ago in Phoenix. Golden State checks in a miserable 0-6-1 ATS over its last seven games but is favored by double-digits for a reason here, at least in my opinion. After Friday's game the Warriors will have three days off - they certainly don't want to spend that time stewing over another poor performance. San Antonio is coming off an ATS victory over the Clippers on Wednesday but that was of little consolation as it dropped its 10th game in a row SU. The Spurs offense has run dry, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. The future may be bright in San Antonio, but this continues to be a trying 23-24 campaign. Note that the Warriors check in a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games following a loss to a division opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 17.9 points in that situation. Golden State is also 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-23-23 | NC State -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Vanderbilt at 10 pm et on Thursday. N.C. State hasn't really played anyone yet so it's tough to get a great gauge on just how good the Wolfpack are. I expect Kevin Keatts' crew to relish the opportunity to face a 'name' opponent from the SEC in Las Vegas on Thursday. Vanderbilt hasn't accomplished much since Jerry Stackhouse took over as head coach in 2019. While the Commodores enter this game off three straight victories, don't forget they opened their season with an outright loss as 16-point favorites against Presbyterian. Vandy's opponents have been stuffing the stat sheet as it has allowed 25, 24, 29 and 28 made field goals despite holding three of four opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. The Wolfpack appear to be in midseason form offensively, knocking down 29, 29 and 32 field goals in their first three contests. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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11-22-23 | Mavs -1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers ran away with last night's lopsided win over the Jazz on this same floor but should find the going much tougher on Wednesday as they host a rested Mavericks squad. Dallas checks in off consecutive losses but those came on back-to-back nights against two of the league's best teams in the Bucks (on the road) and the Kings (at home). The shoe is on the other foot this time around as they enter this game on two days' rest while the Lakers expended plenty of energy running the Jazz off the court on Tuesday. Add in the fact that it's the eve of Thanksgiving and Los Angeles will likely have one eye on a four-game road trip that starts on Saturday in Cleveland and I believe it's advantage Mavs on Wednesday night. Take Dallas (10*). |
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11-22-23 | Tennessee v. Kansas -1 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Tennessee at 2:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Volunteers gave the Boilermakers their best punch last night but ultimately fell just short. Now they have to get right back up for Bill Self's Jayhawks, who are likely to be in a foul mood after getting blown out by Marquette last night. I thought the Vols guards matched up better against the Boilers last night than they do against the Jayhawks here. Given they fell short in that contest, I have a tough time envisioning them handing Kansas its second straight upset defeat on Wednesday. Take Kansas (8*). |
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11-21-23 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Purdue | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Purdue at 8 pm et on Tuesday. In a game with a relatively low posted total where points should come at a premium, I'll gladly gran all the points I can get with the underdog Volunteers. Note that Tennessee checks in ranked number one in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Vols have the experienced guard play to ultimately wear out Matt Painter's Boilermakers, who are coming off a massive statement win over Gonzaga yesterday. Purdue didn't lose its first game last season until early January. I expect the Vols to give the Boilers a run here though, noting that Tennessee is 145-107 ATS in its last 252 games as an underdog. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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11-21-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 157-152 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Hawks haven't been able to get out of their own way lately, off to an 0-2 start to their current homestand and 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over their last six games overall. Everything has seemingly been a grind for them as they've lacked offensive flow, getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. The Pacers came out rusty against the Magic on Sunday and perhaps that was to be expected following a four-day layoff. They dug themselves a massive 34-point halftime deficit against Orlando before rallying to make things respectable in the second half. Still, it was a loss so they'll be looking to bounce back here, noting they've gone a perfect 3-0 following their last three defeats. For what it's worth, the Pacers remain undefeated in the in-season tournament so they'll be looking to get a step closer to Las Vegas on Tuesday. Take Indiana (10*). |
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11-20-23 | Rockets v. Warriors -7.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Rockets have reeled off an incredible eight straight ATS victories but are in a tough spot here, playing their third game in four nights off a hard-fought one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles last night. Golden State has lost six straight games and is 0-4-1 ATS over its last five contests. It should be happy to be facing the Rockets on Monday, however, noting that the Warriors outlasted Houston 106-95 on the road back in late October. Note that Golden State is 28-9 ATS in its last 37 home games after giving up 130 or more points in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-20-23 | Florida State v. UNLV +4 | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Florida State at 5:30 pm et on Monday. This game will be played in Daytona Beach, Florida, seemingly giving the in-state Seminoles over the Runnin' Rebels, who will be travelling across the country. That's been factored into the line, however, and I like UNLV to give Florida State all it can handle on Monday. The Rebels got off to a rough start to the campaign as they were upset by Southern University as 20-point favorites in their opener. Since the, they've bounced back by reeling off consecutive victories both SU and ATS. UNLV has posted consecutive winning seasons under head coach Kevin Kruger and they're poised for another positive campaign in 23-24. Florida State is coming off a disastrous 22-23 campaign, going 9-23. While they got off to a strong start against weak opposition this season, their first 'step up in class' game resulted in a 21-point rout at the hands of rival Florida. Safe to say the 'Noles aren't 'back' just yet and I look for them to stumble again on Monday. Take UNLV (8*). |
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11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4.5 | 128-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Orlando at 5:10 pm et on Sunday. I like the spot for the Pacers here as they return to the court for the first time since Tuesday to host a Magic squad that should be fat and happy off consecutive wins in Chicago. Indiana has incredibly knocked down at least 44 field goals in eight straight games. Contrast that with the slow-paced Magic, who have had a tough enough time getting an ample number of shots off let alone knocking them down, connecting on 38 or fewer field goals in four straight games entering Sunday's contest. Of course, that is by design as the Magic are one of the league's better defensive teams. I simply feel they'll have a tough time keeping pace against a fresh-legged Pacers squad as they wrap up their four-game in six-night road trip on Sunday. Take Indiana (8*). |
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11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -6 | 100-106 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockets have been one of the biggest surprises of the early season. Since starting 0-3 they've reeled off six straight wins, both SU and ATS. It is worth noting that all six of those wins came at home. They'll hit the road following a four-day layoff on Friday. The Clippers are at the opposite end of the spectrum, riding a six-game losing streak, going 1-5 ATS over that stretch. They have faced a pretty brutal recent schedule, however, but are in better position here at home following two days off to figure things out. The good news is, their issues are correctable as they simply haven't been knocking down their shots. I like the spot here before they're off for two more days prior to a two-game set in San Antonio. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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11-15-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings have bounced back to deliver three straight wins following a three-game losing streak but all three of those victories came at home. I think they've had this six-game road trip circled on their calendar since an embarrassing two-game stop in Houston in which they were blown out just over a week ago. The Lakers check in to play the second of back-to-back nights after posting a blowout win over Memphis last night. Los Angeles has now won three games in a row although it went just 2-1 ATS over that stretch and has yet to deliver consecutive ATS victories this season. That's nothing new as Los Angeles is just 35-52 in its last 87 games after recording an ATS win, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. There's no intimidation factor favoring the Lakers here as the Kings are 4-1 against them since the start of last season including a perfect 2-0 mark here in Los Angeles. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Suns as they catch the Timberwolves playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Phoenix has lost consecutive games, both SU and ATS, and is just 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven contests. With that being said, it is expected to get back some reinforcements on Wednesday, including Devin Booker. It also has the benefit of having been idle since Sunday's double-digit home loss to the Thunder. The Suns are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in seven meetings between these two teams in Phoenix since the start of the 21-22 season. Also note that they're 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 100 points in their previous game, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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11-15-23 | Knicks -1 v. Hawks | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks were humbled by the Celtics two nights ago in Boston. They'll be happy to be in Atlanta on Wednesday, where they've had plenty of success in recent years, going 4-1 SU in their last five matchups here. New York is a long-term 63-44 against Atlanta and is in a favorable spot here, waiting for the Hawks to return home after they managed to win (and cover) in Detroit without Trae Young last night. He'll likely be back in the Hawks lineup on Wednesday - regardless, I like the Knicks to bounce back. Take New York (8*). |
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11-15-23 | Cornell +3.5 v. George Mason | 83-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cornell plus the points over George Mason at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. While George Mason is in what figures to be a rebuilding year under first-year head coach Tony Skinn, Cornell has its best team in a number of years following consecutive winning seasons under head coach Brian Earl. Both teams check into Wednesday's sneaky-good matchup with perfect records although Cornell does have an extra game under its belt. George Mason has yet to really be tested having faced the 306th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season. The Patriots will have a tough time adapting to the Big Red's fluid, up-tempo attack on Wednesday. Look for Cornell's offense to prove to be too much. Take Cornell (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Wolves v. Warriors -1.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. With Steph Curry added to the injury report for the Warriors we've seen this line plummet. I'm willing to get behind Golden State regardless whether Curry is able to play or not on Tuesday. I think the Warriors problems right now are fixable. They've lost four of their last five contests as they've quite simply lost their shooting touch, knocking down 37 or fewer field goals in four of those games. It's been precisely the opposite for the Timberwolves, who have won six straight contests, making good on at least 43 field goals in each of their last five games. Interestingly, Minnesota has gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, meaning it is playing with a relatively small margin for error. I look for the Warriors to clamp down here, noting that they're 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the T'Wolves are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games after covering the spread in at least five straight contests, which is also the situation here. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Kentucky +6 v. Kansas | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Kansas at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas has looked every bit deserving of the number one seed so far this season but we're only two games in and blowout victories over N.C. Central and Manhattan, at home no less, were to be expected. Here, the Jayhawks will face their first real test against John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats and I look for them to have their hands full. The Wildcats are 2-0 but are coming off an ATS loss in a 20-point win over Texas A&M-Commerce. I saw all I needed to know that Kentucky's ceiling is sky-high this season in an 86-46 dismantling of a good New Mexico State team in its season-opener. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series and the 'revenge' angle has worked over the last several years with neither side managing consecutive wins since Kansas accomplished that feat in 16-17 into 17-18. Take Kentucky (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 240 | 110-131 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Any time we get what I consider to be a quality team playing at home on a long losing streak, I'm going to take a long look at the 'under'. That's the case on Tuesday as the Pelicans look to snap their five-game SU and ATS losing skid and earn some quick revenge after dropping a 136-124 decision at home against these same Mavericks on Sunday. The Pelicans got baited into a track meet in that game, ultimately hoisting up 92 field goal attempts in the double-digit loss. When New Orleans was enjoying success during a 4-1 start to the campaign, it was playing at a far more methodical pace, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in three of its first five contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times New Orleans has come off six or seven losses in its last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 213.5 points in that situation. While the Mavs are coming off consecutive wins, they can't be pleased with their defensive play having allowed 127, 126 and 124 points over their last three contests. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 in their last 16 games following a road victory by 10 points or more. Take the under (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Duke v. Michigan State OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Michigan State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While I do like Duke to bounce back from Friday's home loss against Arizona, I don't think the oddsmakers have its backers any favors by installing them as two-possession favorites against Michigan State at the United Center on Tuesday. Michigan State enters with perhaps just as big of a chip on its shoulder after it dropped a stunning home-opening loss to James Madison (before bouncing back with a blowout victory over Southern Indiana). Regardless, I expect both teams to go flat out in an effort to re-establish themselves in the national rankings (the Blue Devils fell from second to ninth while the Spartans tumbled from fourth all the way to 18th). Note that Michigan State has allowed each of its first two opponents to get out and run with both hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Duke won't shy away from pushing the pace here as it has attempted 59 and 65 field goals through two contests. You only have to go back to the 2022 NCAA Tournament to find the last time these storied programs met and the result was an 85-76 Duke victory. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-23 | Heat v. Spurs +2 | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have really been struggling defensively but they earn a reprieve of sorts on Sunday as they host the Heat playing in a back-to-back spot and not exactly setting the court on fire offensively. Miami has knocked down 41 or fewer field goals in eight of nine games this season, only managing to eclipse that mark in a win (but non-cover) against Washington. The Spurs check in playing well offensively, having made good on 43 or more field goals in five of their last six contests. San Antonio does figure to put some pressure on a Miami team playing on no rest, noting that the Spurs have hoisted up at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight games. While the Spurs have lost four games in a row we do know they're capable of better as they swept a two-game road set against the Suns and defeated an improved Rockets team here at home. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-11-23 | Texas Southern v. Arizona State -14.5 | 52-63 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Texas Southern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Texas Southern stunned Arizona State as an 11-point home underdog in last year's matchup. I look for the Sun Devils to exact their revenge on Saturday afternoon in Tempe. Note that Arizona State opened the 23-24 campaign with a 71-56 loss against a good Mississippi State team. The Sun Devils showed plenty of rust offensively in that game as they knocked down only 17-of-53 field goal attempts. This matchup should provide Arizona State with ample opportunity to bounce back, noting that Texas Southern allowed New Mexico to connect on 30-of-67 field goal attempts in its season-opening 92-55 loss. Note that Texas Southern is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. Take Arizona State (8*). |
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11-10-23 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings struggled again but still managed to snap their three-game losing streak with an overtime victory over the Blazers at home on Wednesday. They'll have the benefit of staying at home as they host the Thunder on Friday night. For whatever reason, Sacramento has had Oklahoma City's number in recent years, taking six straight meetings in this series going back to December of 2021. While we often like backing the Thunder in an underdog role, that's not the case on Friday as they check in as a rare road favorite following consecutive wins (and covers) at home. Wednesday's ATS defeat may have been the last straw for some Kings bettors but we'll go the other way and call for them to snap their three-game ATS skid on Friday night. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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11-10-23 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The first matchup between these two teams this season was low-scoring as the Lakers defeated the Suns 100-95 in Los Angeles. I expect a different story to unfold in Friday's rematch in the desert. As usual, the Lakers have had no interest in slowing down opposing teams, allowing six of eight opponents to hoist up more than 90 field goal attempts this season. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball right now with Los Angeles having allowed 47, 46, 41 and 51 made field goals over its last four contests. It's been a similar story for the Suns. They've allowed five of six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts since facing the Lakers on October 26th. Each of their last five opponents have knocked down at least 42 field goals. Take the over (8*). |
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11-10-23 | Hornets +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This is a quick revenge spot for the Hornets after they dropped a 132-116 decision as 2.5-point home favorites against the Wizards two nights ago. I like Charlotte's chances of rebounding here. Note that the Wizards are an awful defensive team, allowing 126.9 points per game on a blistering 51.7% shooting this season. The only reason they were able to outlast the Hornets on Wednesday was that Charlotte didn't take care of the basketball, turning it over a season-high 20 times. Note that Washington is a long-term 169-213 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog. The Wizards are also in a classic fade spot of mine as they return home on just one day of rest following a road trip that lasted four games or longer. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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11-10-23 | Arizona v. Duke OVER 153.5 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. While the betting majority will likely be on this play with us on Friday, that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. I simply feel this game will resemble a pro-style contest with the Wildcats and Blue Devils vying to remain perfect on the young campaign. Duke probably doesn't want to get involved in a track meet with Arizona but I'm not sure it will have a choice in the matter, even at home. The Wildcats will run, run and run some more and it's just too early in the season for the Blue Devils to truly have their wits about them defensively. On the flip side, Duke is favored for a reason in this contest and it will undoubtedly hold its own offensively against what projects to be an average Arizona defense (its first opponent of the season Morgan State turned the basketball over 25 times and made good on only 22 field goals yet still put up 59 points). Take the over (8*). |
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11-09-23 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 233 | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. The oddsmakers are projecting a track meet between these two teams in Mexico City on Thursday but I don't see it unfolding that way. The Magic have gotten off to a 4-3 start to the campaign thanks to a stout defense that has held all seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That has come at the expense of their offense at times as they've played a fairly methodical style (by today's NBA standards), making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of seven contests. Atlanta plays no such tough defense but I do think we see it shy away from an up-and-down affair here after falling short in precisely that type of contest last time out in Oklahoma City. Following a red hot five-game shooting stretch, Atlanta knocked down just 38-of-102 field goal attempts against the Thunder. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 in the Magic's last 10 road games following a home loss and 50-32 in their last 82 contests following an ATS defeat. These NBA games played in Mexico City have had a tendency to be lower-scoring with last year's matchup between the Heat and Spurs producing 212 total points. Prior to that the Spurs and Suns combined to score 218 points in 2019. The Magic played a pair of games here in 2018 with those contests reaching 188 and 185 points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-08-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -3 | 105-108 | Push | 0 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors have undoubtedly had this matchup circled since dropping all three meetings with the Nuggets last season. I'm not sure it matters. Denver overcame a miserable first half against New Orleans on Monday before unloading in the final 24 minutes in a runaway 134-116 victory. It's been that kind of start to the campaign for Denver as it has very much looked like the team to beat in the Western Conference. The Warriors have covered a ton of ground in the early going this season with their current road trip already taking them to Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Detroit and now Denver. In fact, this will be Golden State's ninth game in the last 13 nights, in nine different cities. The Nuggets on the other hand have been home and cool since November 3rd and following Wednesday's contest will enjoy three off days before a game in Houston on Sunday. Note that Denver is a long-term 137-101 ATS when playing at home off consecutive home games, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). |
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11-08-23 | Lakers -2.5 v. Rockets | 94-128 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets laid waste to the Kings over the last two games and are now 3-1 on their current six-game homestand. Keep in mind, this is a team that started the campaign with three straight losses, both SU and ATS. Note that Houston is a long-term 103-136 ATS when coming off three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. The Lakers have dropped the first two games on their current road trip, most recently falling just one point short in Miami on Monday. The finale of this trip will come against a revenge-minded Suns squad in Phoenix on Friday so if they want to salvage something positive, this would appear to be the spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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11-07-23 | Northern Iowa v. North Texas UNDER 129.5 | 77-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Iowa and North Texas at 8 pm et on Tuesday. No team played slower than North Texas last season as it ranked 363rd out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo but that was by design as it also finished 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency, riding that hard-nosed defensive style to a NIT championship. While Ross Hodge is the new head coach, nothing is likely to change as Hodge has been running the Mean Green Eagles defense for a number of years. All indications are that his players have bought in during practices and I don't anticipate North Texas missing a beat defensively out of the gate this season. Northern Iowa returns its top five scorers from last season under long-time head coach Ben Jacobson. The Panthers have been a middling bunch in terms of pace under Jacobson but there's been a renewed focus on playing good defensive basketball entering the 23-24 campaign. “We were awful last year defensively,” Jacobson said in late October. “We’ve spent a lot of time working (on that). So we have got a defensive team we can count on.” I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (8*). |
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11-06-23 | Pelicans +6 v. Nuggets | 116-134 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans are coming off an 18-point rout at the hands of the red hot Hawks on Saturday. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot on paper as they head out on the road to face the defending champion Nuggets, it's worth noting that they hung with Denver in four meetings last season, going 2-2 with the two defeats coming by a combined 10 points. Denver is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS on its current homestand, marking its first ATS winning streak this season. While New Orleans will be without C.J. McCollum for an indefinite period of time due to a lung issue, Denver could be without oft-injured Jamal Murray as he deals with a knee injury. The Pelicans are just 2-2 ATS at home this season but a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road and I look for them to run that record to 3-0 on Monday. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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11-05-23 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The upstart Blazers are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an overtime victory over these same Grizzlies on Friday. I look for Memphis to answer back and notch its first victory of the campaign in Sunday's rematch. Memphis actually outshot Portland by a considerable margin on Friday but couldn't overcome a 36-13 discrepancy in terms of free throw attempts. That should even out in Sunday's contest. Note that the Grizzlies are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored at least 110 points, as is the case here. The Blazers are a long-term 43-67 ATS in an underdog role and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 contests as a home underdog of six points or less, outscored by an average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Take Memphis (10*). |
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11-03-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Nuggets have reeled off five straight 'under' results to open the season but I think we have a catalyst for change in play as they come off their first defeat of the campaign in Minnesota two nights ago. Denver had an off night shooting the basketball against the T'Wolves, knocking down just 38-of-96 field goal attempts. Prior to that, the Nuggets had made good on more than 40 field goals in all four games, topping out at a whopping 53 made field goals in a win in Oklahoma City. On the flip side, Denver has been terrific defensively but does figure to get tested here. Dallas has knocked down 47, 44 and 42 field goals in its first three games before being held to just 37 in a slow-paced game against the Bulls. Keep in mind, the Mavericks still scored 114 points in that most recent contest and a slower-paced affair was to be expected against Chicago. Defensively, the Mavs warts have yet to be exposed thanks to their strong offensive production. They've actually allowed all four opponents to make good on 42 or more field goals this season and the Nuggets ripped them for a blistering 88-of-162 (54.3%) shooting in two meetings in Denver last season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this play sets up as the Magic got a chance to scout the Jazz first hand last night (Utah played Memphis) following a winless two-game stop-over in Los Angeles. I'm of the belief that Orlando has a chance to be a good, if not great team this season but so far it has managed only two wins in four games. The Magic should have a little extra chip on their shoulder on Thursday after they dropped both meetings between these two teams last season including a narrow four-point defeat here in Salt Lake City. Note that Orlando has generally gotten stronger as road trips have gone on in recent years, posting a 17-6 ATS mark in its last 23 road contests following consecutive games played away from home, as is the case here. Take Orlando (8*). |
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11-01-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors are off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season after staging an 'upset' road win in New Orleans on Monday. That concluded a perfect 3-0 trip for Golden State, which began with a victory over the same Kings they'll face back home on Wednesday. I like Sacramento's chances of exacting some early season revenge as it looks to improve on its 2-1 start to the campaign. Remember, the Kings proved they could hang with the Warriors in the first round of last April's playoffs, pushing them to seven games. Sacramento won't have the services of De'Aaron Fox for an extended period of time but that's been more than factored into this line in my opinion. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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11-01-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up beautifully for the home underdog Timberwolves as they look to bring an end to the defending-champion Nuggets' perfect 4-0 start to the season. Minnesota checks in off an 'upset' road loss in Atlanta s it was crushed by 14 points on Monday. Of course, that was a letdown spot for the T'Wolves as they were fresh off a 16-point home win over the Heat two nights earlier. There's a playoff revenge angle in play here after Denver ousted Minnesota in five games in the opening round last April. That was after the T'Wolves managed to take both regular season meetings here in Minnesota. Note that Denver is a long-term 142-183 ATS when playing on the road off consecutive victories. In Minnesota's last 172 home games following an upset defeat it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 3.5 points. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-01-23 | Wizards +8.5 v. Hawks | 121-130 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards got drilled by 19 points last time out but that was against an elite Celtics squad that has come storming out of the gates this season. Here, I think Washington is catching Atlanta in a prime letdown spot with the Hawks fresh off consecutive double-digit wins to even their record at 2-2 on the season. Atlanta checks in a woeful 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games following an ATS win and 6-19 ATS in its last 25 contests after a home victory. The Hawks are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an outright underdog victory, which is the situation here after their home win over the Timberwolves as 2.5-point underdogs. Take Washington (8*). |
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11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks are coming off a high-scoring game against the Heat on Monday. I expect a different story to unfold as they head to Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors have lost three games in a row but there issues have been at the offensive end of the floor. They've actually seen the 'under' go 3-1 in their four games this season and they've held the opposition to 94, 104, 114 and 99 points. The Bucks have gotten off 82, 86 and 87 field goal attempts through three games so they're not exactly playing at a frenetic pace. They shot the lights out against the Heat on Monday but will be hard-pressed to do so on the road against the Raptors here. Toronto has allowed just one of four opponents to knock down more than 38 field goals this season. Note that the 'under' is 18-8 in the Bucks last 26 road games when coming off an ATS victory. Take the under (8*). |
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10-31-23 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 226.5 | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The betting market continues to have a tough time figuring out the Suns as they continue on without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Kevin Durant got plenty of help from his supporting cast in Phoenix's 126-104 rout of Utah on Saturday. The Suns draw another mouth-watering matchup on Tuesday as they host the Spurs, who just got dominated by a 123-83 score against the Clippers in Los Angeles on Sunday. There are going to be plenty of growing pains for this San Antonio squad. The Spurs have employed a matador-like defense through three games, allowing 47, 52 and 47 made field goals (to their credit the middle game was aided by overtime). I do think we see a bounce-back of sorts from the Spurs offense on Tuesday after they connected on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts on Sunday. Phoenix has held all three of its opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season yet has still given up 100 or more points in every contest. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 136-102 with the Spurs playing on the road after scoring 90 points or less in their previous game. Take the over (8*). |
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10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 214.5 | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' cashed in all five games in last April's playoff series between these two teams. The Knicks also enter this contest off an incredibly low-scoring game against New Orleans on Saturday. With that being said, the contrarian in me believes we're in for a higher-scoring game than expected on Tuesday. Cleveland has been playing at a fast pace, hoisting up 94, 92 and 99 field goal attempts through three games. While Darius Garland remains sidelined, there's a chance Donovan Mitchell could return on Tuesday after sitting out the second of back-to-backs on Saturday. The Knicks have also played at a reasonably quick tempo, getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in all three games. Note that the 'over' is 30-18 in the Knicks last 48 games as a favorite including 1-0 this season. The 'over' also cashed in both regular season meetings between these two teams in 22-23. Take the over (8*). |
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10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -3 | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors picked up their second straight victory last night in Houston but now face a difficult three-in-four spot on the road against the revenge-minded Pelicans (Golden State took the last two meetings last season). New Orleans was idle on Sunday after improving to 2-0 on the season with a nine-point win over the Knicks on Saturday. Note that the Warriors had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Rockets last night, attempting only 81 field goals (and making just 35 of them) in the victory. The Pelicans have allowed each of their first two opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts but have defended well, allowing just 38 and 33 makes in those two contests. On the flip side, New Orleans has made good on exactly 40 field goals in consecutive games despite playing at a reasonably slow pace. Here, we'll note that Golden State checks in a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road underdog of six points or less, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs picked up their first win of the Victor Wembanyama era by way of overtime at home against the Rockets two nights ago, but they needed overtime to get it. San Antonio has played about as well as you could expect offensively, knocking down exactly 46 field goals in each contest. The problem is, the Spurs also allowed a whopping 47 and 52 made field goals in those two games and now they hit the road for the first time to face a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after dropping a two-point decision as a road favorite in Utah on Friday. The Clippers have actually been about as efficient as any team in the league offensively through two games, shooting better than 52% from the field. They figure to go off here, noting they scored 113, 119, 131 and 138 points in four matchups in this series last season. The Spurs check in a woeful 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-28-23 | Bulls -1 v. Pistons | 102-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors let the Bulls off the hook last night as Chicago blew a big second quarter lead, trailed by a wide margin late before tying it up on a parade to the free throw line and ultimately winning by a single point in overtime. Off that shaky performance, I look for a much sharper four quarter effort from the Bulls on Saturday in Detroit. The Pistons won outright as 4.5-point underdogs in Charlotte last night - their second straight ATS win to open the campaign. Detroit's first two opponents struggled to knock down their shots but I'm willing to chalk that up more as early season rust rather than the Pistons defensive prowess. Chicago has owned this series in Motown in recent years and I look for it to continue its dominance here. Take Chicago (8*). |
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10-27-23 | Clippers v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this play sets up as bettors overreact to season-opening results from these two teams. The Clippers turned in a near-flawless performance but that was at home against what projects to be one of the league's worst teams in the Blazers. Meanwhile, the Jazz dropped a lopsided decision at home but that was against one of the league's true up-and-coming teams in the Kings. I look for the script to flip on Friday night, noting that Utah is a long-term 42-14 straight-up at home against Los Angeles including four straight wins going back to the start of the 2021-22 season. This is one of those tough one-game road trips for the Clippers, in altitude no less, before they return home for winnable games against the Spurs and Magic on Sunday and Tuesday. Should the Jazz fall again here, they'll be starting at a very tough start with a two-game trip to Phoenix and Denver on deck. Take Utah (10*). |
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10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -2 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Bulls on Friday as they look to split their season-opening two-game homestand after dropping their first game by 20 points against Oklahoma City. The Thunder quite simply shot the lights out in that game. Chicago actually held Oklahoma City to only 82 field goal attempts but it made good on 45 of them. If the Bulls can limit the pace again here they should be in good shape, noting the Raptors knocked down just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in their three-point win over Minnesota on Wednesday. In that contest, the Raptors allowed the Timberwolves to hoist up a whopping 101 FG attempts. Needless to say, Minnesota didn't make the most of its opportunities, connecting on only 34. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series with the Bulls being the lone team to grab the cash on the road (in the most recent matchup between these teams last April) over that stretch. Here, we'll note that Chicago is 26-14 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons and 35-19 ATS in the role of home favorite over the last three seasons. Toronto is a woeful 10-24 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 100 points or less over the last three seasons. Take Chicago (8*). |
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10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams saw their respective season openers stay 'under' the total but I expect a different story to unfold as the Suns and Lakers match up in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Suns actually allowed Golden State to get off a whopping 101 field goal attempts on Tuesday but the Warriors couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 36 of those attempts in a four-point loss. Meanwhile, Phoenix played with pace (95 field goal attempts) and shot reasonably well (42 made field goals), even with key offseason acquisition Bradley Beal sidelined (he's questionable to play on Thursday as well). The Lakers limited Denver to just 91 FG attempts on Tuesday but the Nuggets had little trouble against L.A.'s sieve-like defense, connecting on 48 of those shot attempts. I did come away impressed with the Lakers ability to at least match the Nuggets tempo (91 FG attempts). They simply had an off night shooting - something I expect them to rectify in their home-opener on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Suns coming off a victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 233.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-25-23 | Hawks -2.5 v. Hornets | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. When it comes to most sports, I don't put a great deal of stock into preseason results. I generally make an exception when it comes to the NBA, however. There's more of a tendency to see regular rotations, even if the starters aren't playing regular minutes, and we can get a feel for the way teams will play once the regular season commences. Here, we'll lay the points with the Hawks as they open their campaign against the Hornets in Charlotte. Atlanta had a productive preseason, going 3-2 while limiting opponents to 86, 89, 81, 83 and 86 field goal attempts. The Hornets on the other hand got off 93, 94, 88 and 88 FG attempts in their four preseason contests but knocked down 37 or fewer of those attempts in three of those games. In fact, the only game where they were able to get anything going offensively they were facing Oklahoma City's 'B' squad (Charlotte used most of its regular starters and shot 52% from the field and still won by only two points). Atlanta does enter this game with 'double revenge' having dropped its last two meetings with Charlotte last season. Note that the Hornets haven't won three straight matchups in this series since posting five straight victories over the Hawks from 2017 to 2018. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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10-24-23 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 232 | 108-104 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. When it comes to most sports, I don't put a great deal of stock into preseason results. I generally make an exception when it comes to the NBA, however. There's more of a tendency to see regular rotations, even if the starters aren't playing regular minutes, and we can get a feel for the way teams will play once the regular season commences. With that being said, through the first four games of the preseason, Suns opponents have been 'filling it up'. In games against the Pistons, Nuggets and Trail Blazers (twice), Phoenix yielded 46, 43, 42 and 41 made field goals in regulation time. That was despite only one of those opponents reaching 90 or more field goal attempts. The Warriors do figure to push the pace on the Suns in their home opener on Tuesday. Save for a game against the Kings in which Steph Curry and Chris Paul sat out, they've looked sharp in the preseason, knocking down 45+ field goals in three of four contests. Phoenix has given its new-look, star-studded starting five enough run in the preseason to lead me to believe we won't see a great deal of rust on Tuesday. In last year's four meetings in this series, the Suns made good on 47, 44, 41 and 46 field goals. Of note, they still put up 125 points in the game where they 'only' knocked down 41 shots. Take the over (8*). |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. This series has taken a low-scoring tone for the most part with three of the first four games staying 'under' the total. As I've noted in my analysis of the last two contests, Miami hasn't been able to break through the offensive ceiling against Denver this season, making good on 39, 39, 39, 38, 34 and 35 field goals in six matchups. On the flip side, the Heat have held an incredible 20 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. In this series, Miami has limited Denver to 40, 39, 41 and 39 made field goals. There are still plenty of bettors chasing the 'over' in this series and as a result the oddsmakers can only set this number so low. It's not low enough in my opinion, noting that the 'under' is 16-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season and 14-6 with the Nuggets following five consecutive games in which they shot 47% or better from the field, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We'll stick with the program on Friday and back the 'under' as the Nuggets carry their 2-1 series lead into Game 4 of The Finals in Miami. The Heat have yet to show they can break through their offensive ceiling against Denver this season, knocking down 39, 39, 39, 38 and 34 field goals in five meetings. On the flip side, however, Miami has limited an incredible 19 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nuggets made good on more than 41 field goals. Here, we'll note again that Denver has seen the 'under' go 21-9 after shooting 50% or better from the field in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 15-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season. Take the under (8*). |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. While the Heat did outlast the Nuggets 111-108 in Game 2 of this series, they still failed to break through the offensive ceiling, connecting on only 38 field goals in another relatively slow-paced affair. Note that Miami has now knocked down 39, 39, 39 and 38 field goals in four meetings with the Nuggets this season. On the flip side, the Heat have now held an incredible 18 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. They've limited six straight and 10 of their last 11 foes to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat exploded for 17 made three-pointers in Game 2 but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Nuggets have held opponents to an average of 12 made threes per contest on the road this season. The 'under' is 20-9 with Denver coming off consecutive games in which it shot 50% or better from the field, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone a long-term 129-96 with the Heat playing at home on two or more days' rest, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure that Game 2 of this series sets up all that much differently than Game 1, which was won by the Nuggets by a score of 104-93. As I noted in my analysis of that contest, this isn't a favorable matchup for the Heat, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Miami's offensive ceiling appears to be fairly low, noting that it has not knocked down an identical 39 field goals in all three meetings with the Nuggets this season. In Game 1, the Heat actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts. I expect to see Denver tighten things up considerably from a defensive standpoint here. On the flip side, the Nuggets made good on 45 and 44 field goals in the two regular season matchups between these two teams but connected on 'only' 40 in Game 1. That was on just 79 FG attempts, however. This line may seem steep until you realize that Denver has outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points this season. Much like in Game 1, we'll again note that the Heat are 0-11 ATS after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less this season, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets in Game 1 of The Finals on Thursday. Miami of course checks in off an incredible seven-game series against the Celtics, going 5-2 ATS along the way. Note that the Heat were contained offensively for the most part in the latter stages of that series, knocking down 42 or fewer field goals in each of the final four games. I feel Miami's offensive ceiling in this particular matchup with the Nuggets is rather low, noting that it made good on an identical 39 field goals in each of two regular season meetings. In fact, the Heat have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals nine of the last 10 matchups in this series. Denver on the other hand has made good on 42 or more field goals in six straight meetings and 45 or more twice over that stretch. While this line may seem steep, it's worth noting that the Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 10.1 points on average. Also note that the Heat are 0-10 ATS this season when coming off consecutive games in which they held the opposition to 105 points or fewer, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' on Saturday and we'll come right back with the same play in Game 7 of this series on Monday. The pace has slowed considerably in this series over the last few games and there's little reason to expect anything different here. Note that Miami has now held 15 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Boston has been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight contests. The 'under' is now a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics facing elimination over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 199.1 points. Take the under (8*). |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a major shift in this series, not only with the Celtics winning the last two games, but from a pace perspective. Game 4 saw the Celtics get off 84 field goal attempts while Miami managed to hoist up only 78. In Game 5, Miami got off only 79 field goal attempts with Boston attempting 79. Of course, the Celtics have shot a blistering 51.2% and 50.6% over the last two contests to get back in the series. I do expect a response from the Heat defensively here after Boston shot the lights out from beyond the arc in Game 5. On the flip side, we'll note that the 'under' is now a perfect 8-0 with the Celtics facing elimination in the playoffs over the last two seasons, allowing only 93.1 points per game in the process. That situation has produced an average total of just 198.1 points. Boston has now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games while Miami has held the opposition to 43 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 consecutive contests. Take the under (8*). |
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05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. As much as I'd like to see this series get extended (more basketball is always a good thing), I think there's a good chance we see the Heat close the Celtics out on Thursday. Incredibly, the ATS winner has won straight-up in 31 straight meetings in this series so a sprinkle on the Heat moneyline could be well worth your while. Regardless, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Heat here as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5. Miami is on an incredible run right now having not lost consecutive games since a three-game skid from March 25th to 29th. The Heat have really locked in defensively, holding each of their last 13 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Celtics have made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 10 straight contests. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup, noting that it has topped out at 46 made field goals against Miami this season and that came in a game where the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. Even in Game 4 two nights ago, when the Celtics brought their 'A' game, performing about as well as you could expect at both ends of the floor, they still won by 'only' 17 points, noting that the margin was 15 points before a meaningless bucket on the C's final possession. For its part, Miami couldn't have played much worse, connecting on just 34-of-78 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that the Heat are 40-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually managing to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 91-123 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. After watching the Celtics roll over in embarrassing fashion last night, few are probably expecting much from the Lakers as they face elimination at the hands of the Nuggets on Monday. I actually think we will see some fight from Los Angeles here, noting that it has been competitive for the most part in this series and is in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively following consecutive subpar showings. The Lakers have made good on just 36 and 38 field goals in their last two games and that's notable as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games just four times previously this season, averaging 41 made field goals in their next contest. While the Lakers have now lost three games in a row they haven't suffered a four-game losing streak since back in December. They've also been terrific in these playoffs following an ATS defeat, reeling off five straight ATS wins in that situation entering Monday's contest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have now won five games in a row - their longest win streak since reeling off nine straight victories back in January. Denver is just 5-13 ATS when playing on the road following consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation. The Nuggets are also 9-18 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive victories this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the Heat haven't been involved in three consecutive 'over' results since their first round series against the up-tempo Bucks. The pace wasn't necessarily there for an 'over' result in either of the first two games in this series. Game 1 saw the Heat and Celtics get off 85 and 81 field goal attempts, respectively. In Game 2, the Heat picked up the pace thanks to trailing by double-digits for stretches, hoisting up 92 field goal attempts. The Celtics were once again stymied, getting off only 79 FG attempts. The Heat have now held five straight opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Game 2 sticks out as an anomaly for the Celtics defensively as they've limited seven of their last nine foes to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The last time they allowed 90 or more FG attempts in a game they followed it up by allowing only 79 in their next contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 25-14 with the Celtics installed as a road favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat pulled off a stunner in Game 1 to steal home court advantage and at the very least a split in the first two games here in Boston. Incredibly, the ATS winner has now won the last 28 meetings in this series straight-up including 13 outright underdog victories. I look for that trend to continue on Friday but with the Celtics coming out on the winning end this time around. It certainly appeared as if the Celtics thought the Heat would simply roll over and concede Game 1 after Boston took control late in the first half to build a nine-point halftime lead. Instead, the Heat came out on fire in the third quarter, took control of the game and cruised the rest of the way. Note that Miami knocked down 46 field goals in the victory. We haven't seen it connect on 46 or more field goals in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd (oddly enough both games were against Boston) so we can count on some offensive regression here. The Celtics have now dropped three straight meetings in this series (both SU and ATS) and that's notable as they haven't lost four straight matchups against Miami since 2004. Here, we'll note that the Heat are just 8-18 ATS when coming off consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, while the Celtics are 19-9 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home over the last two seasons. Take Boston (8*). |