Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers OVER 131 | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 60 h 0 m | Show |
NCAA First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Rutgers at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. It might be easy to forget due to its early exit in the ACC Tournament but Notre Dame enters the NCAA Tournament riding a 7-0-1 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Rutgers was brought to an early demise in the Big Ten Tournament with an 'over' result against Iowa, snapping a four-game 'under' streak in the process. Notre Dame certainly 'filled it up' down the stretch, making good on 27+ field goals in six of its final eight games. Despite the pace not being there over the Irish's last two games, they still managed to knock down 27 field goals in each contest, putting up 78 and 80 points against Pitt and Virginia Tech. On the flip side, we've seen the Irish allow 36, 29, 26, 21, 28, 23 and 31 made field goals over their last seven games. The two outliers were 21 and 23 against two weak opponents in Georgia Tech and Pitt. Rutgers should pose a significantly tougher challenge here. The Scarlet Knights haven't posted eye-popping offensive numbers by any means, largely due to a relatively slow pace in most games. They still managed to make good on 27+ field goals in four of their last seven games and I do think this is a game where we see that pace pick up a bit (Notre Dame has yielded opponents 60+ field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games). Despite the slow tempo, Rutgers has allowed 26, 27, 23, 23, 18 and 26 made field goals over its last six games with the outlier coming in what amounted to a defensive slog against Penn State - an opponent that certainly attracts that type of contest. Neither team guards the perimeter all that well with Notre Dame allowing 8-of-20 shooting from three-point range away from home and Rutgers yielding 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from Piscataway. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
NIT First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Iona plus the points over Florida at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Iona is more accustomed to playing in the NCAA Tournament rather than the NIT in recent years but here it is, drawing Florida in the opening round of the NIT on Wednesday. I like the Gaels chances of not only staying inside the pointspread but potentially staging the upset here. Iona checks in having knocked down 31, 27, 23, 29, 29 and 25 field goals over its last six games, falling just a point short against Rider an upset loss as an 11.5-point favorite in the MAAC Tournament. The Gaels may have overlooked Rider in that contest as they simply didn't show up defensively, allowing the Broncs to shoot 29-of-57 from the field. Prior to that they had held six of their last eight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals, going 6-2 SU over that stretch. We saw Florida get drawn into some up-tempo affairs down the stretch, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games. That's obviously the pace Iona prefers and given where this total sits, that's the type of affair we can anticipate here. Concerning is the fact that the Gators allowed their last five opponents to knock down 29, 27, 30, 28 and 24 field goals, despite the fact that only one of those opponents got off more than 58 FG attempts. Take Iona (10*). |
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03-16-22 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 221 | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in the Mavs most recent game - a thrilling 95-92 win in Boston on Sunday afternoon. We also won with the Nets in last night's rout of the Magic in Orlando. Here, we'll stick with the 'under' as Dallas continues its five-game road trip in Brooklyn. The Mavs are absolutely locked-in defensively right now and come into this one off a much-needed couple of days off. Dallas has held each of its last four opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts, with the opposition making good on just 36, 36, 41 and 33 field goals over that stretch. In the one game that the opposition did eclipse 40 made field goals, Dallas still allowed just 100 points in a game that totalled only 213 points against Houston. Offensively, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs attempted 90+ field goals in a game. Going back to February 27th, they've gotten off 78, 82, 85, 84, 88, 86, 88 and 74 FG attempts. You get the picture. They've also been inconsistent in knocking down those shots, hitting just 39, 27, 40 and 33 field goals over their last four contests. The Nets obviously lit up a bad Magic defense last night, as expected. That was on the road, where they have the services of Kyrie Irving, which of course isn't the case here at home. Brooklyn has gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. It has of course shot the lights out over its last five contests but will face a stiff challenge against the Mavs here. It's the defensive end of the floor where I've been most impressed by the Nets. They enter this game having yielded just 30, 39 and 36 made field goals over their last three games. The pace has certainly been up there over that stretch as they've allowed 93+ FG attempts in two of their last three games. I just don't see the Mavs pushing the tempo the way the Nets recent opponents have. Take the under (8*). |
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03-16-22 | Nuggets v. Wizards UNDER 229 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards have seen the 'over' cash in seven straight games but I don't believe that's a sustainable trend. The pace they've been playing at certainly doesn't dictate such a streak. Note that Washington has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in each of its last eight games. Defensively, the Wizards have certainly been struggling, but are also coming off four straight road games. They're in a more favorable spot here, back home hosting a Nuggets squad playing its ninth game in the last 15 nights and fifth-in-eight, in four different cities no less. Like the Wizards, the Nuggets haven't exactly been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. You would have to go back to March 2nd to find the last time they attempted 90 field goals in a game and they scored just 107 points in Oklahoma City on that night. Aside from a loss against a Raptors squad that has been playing at a furious pace lately, the Nuggets have done a good job of controlling the tempo of their opposition, allowing 88 of fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. They've yielded opponents just 87 FG attempts per game on the road this season. Note that the Wizards actually got off 90 FG attempts in the first meeting between these two teams this season but could only muster 107 points in a game that totalled just 220 points. We saw a closing total of 216 in that one, so we're being given a considerably higher total to work with here. I'm not convinced it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Cleveland State v. Xavier OVER 146.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
NIT First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between Cleveland State and Xavier in NIT action on Tuesday. Cleveland State made an unceremonious early exit in the Horizon League Tournament thanks to a poor shooting effort against Wright State. The Vikings still managed to knock down 25 field goals and score 67 points in that setback. Note that they've made good on 30+ field goals in four of their last eight games with the low-water mark being 21 over that stretch in what turned out to be a lwo-scoring, defensive affair against Oakland. Here, I'm confident we'll see Xavier push the pace, noting that it has gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games, eclipsing the 70 FG mark three times over that stretch. The Musketeers haven't just been pushing the pace, they've been knocking down their shots as well, making good on 33+ field goals in three of their last five games. While Cleveland State has held six straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals, that's had more to do with pace than anything else. The Vikings have been nothing special defensively away from home, where they've yielded 26-of-56 shooting and eight made threes per game. Not only that but they've sent opponents to the free throw line 22 times per game away from home this season. Xavier is certainly vulnerable at the defensive end of the floor, allowing 34, 25, 33, 29, 28, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last seven contests. Even in the game where they only allowed 25 made FG's they still gave up 72 points in a loss to UConn. Take the over (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Nets -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off a SU win but ATS loss against the Knicks on Sunday while the Magic have quietly reeled off four consecutive ATS wins entering Tuesday's matchup in Orlando. I like the way this one sets up for the Nets, however. Note that Brooklyn has been ultra-efficient offensively of late, knocking down 45, 46, 51 and 44 field goals over its last four games despite getting off 90+ field goal attempts only once over that stretch. Orlando has been hanging in there largely due to its opposition struggling in terms of FG%, noting that it has actually yielded 90+ field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. If the pace gets up to that level tonight, there's a good chance we see the Nets 'go off' offensively given the way they've been shooting. On the flip side, Brooklyn limited New York to just 83 FG attempts in Sunday's narrow victory and has held three of its last five opponents to 83 FG attempts or fewer. The Nets last two opponents have made good on just 30 and 39 field goals. Note that the Magic, despite getting off a reasonable 88 FG attempts per game here at home, have only managed to knock down an average of 38 field goals per contest. There is valid concern here that the Nets elect to 'manage' this game given they have a big home date with the Mavericks on deck tomorrow. However, this will be just their second game in the last five nights, and tomorrow's contest will begin a very manageable three-game in six-night homestand, so those concerns can be tempered somewhat. Considering the Magic took the last meeting between these two teams by a 100-93 score in Brooklyn back in mid-December, we'll back a revenge-minded Nets squad laying what I consider to be a reasonable number on Tuesday night. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Missouri State v. Oklahoma OVER 138.5 | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Missouri State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Missouri State is absolutely capable of 'filling it up', even against a Big 12 opponent in Oklahoma on Tuesday. It was an 'up' year for the Missouri Valley Conference as far as I'm concerned with no easy games to be had. The Bears thrived offensively, knocking down 26+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, including 29 or more in four of those contests. However, they did little to slow the opposition, a big reason for their early demise in the MVC Tournament. Missouri State checks in having allowed 33, 26, 24, 22 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests, with the two outliers coming against weaker Valpo and Evansville squads. Only one of the Bears last four opponents failed to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Not surprisingly, we've seen the 'over' cash in six of the Bears last seven games overall. Oklahoma got bogged down offensively in a couple of matchups against Texas Tech - one of the best defensive teams in the country - including in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Between those two games, the Sooners did make good on 22, 27, 28 and 26 field goals, despite the fact that they got off 54 or fewer FG attempts in all four of those contests. Here, I'm expecting the Sooners to get involved in a more up-tempo affair with the Bears. I say that as we did see Oklahoma yield 58+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and it comes in having allowed six of its last nine opponents to make good on 25+ field goals. Take the over (8*). |
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03-14-22 | Raptors -4 v. Lakers | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Raptors have quietly turned things around following a disappointing four-game losing streak, reeling off three straight wins despite running into two hot shooting opponents in Phoenix and Denver over their last two contests. The Raps have done an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, yielding just 85, 84, 88 and 78 field goal attempts over their last four games. The Suns and Nuggets managed to knock down 44 and 43 of those attempts over the last two games but I certainly don't anticipate the Lakers reaching those levels here. Los Angeles made good on only 36-of-81 FG attempts in a 140-111 loss in Phoenix last night. While the Lakers have hit 41+ field goals in five of their last six games, the majority of those contests were played at a very fast pace. Los Angeles has gotten off 91+ FG attempts in three of its last four games - a number I don't see it approaching here. The Raptors, meanwhile, have been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 93+ FG attempts in four of their last five games and should be able to find continued success against a Lakers squad that has had no luck or interest in slowing opponents down, yielding 93, 92, 84, 102, 85 and 102 FG attempts over their last six games (one of those 102's came by way of overtime in Houston). The Raptors have knocked down 41, 42 and 48 field goals over their last three games, putting up 119, 117 and 127 points along the way. Take Toronto (8*). |
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03-14-22 | Blazers +14 v. Hawks | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks wild, high-scoring win over the Pacers last night. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade Atlanta on Monday as it stays home to host the lowly Blazers. Portland snapped its six-game losing streak with a 127-118 win over the Wizards on Saturday. There's reason to be somewhat positive about the Blazers, even with all of their injuries and after their pre-trade deadline fire sale. I say that because they've held 10 of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and better still, four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Two of their last three opponents have knocked down fewer than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Hawks have hit 40+ field goals in four straight games. That's with getting off 90+ FG attempts in two of those three contests, however. More concerning is the fact that Atlanta has yielded 52, 46, 43, 47, 40 and 46 made field goals over its last six games. It's not as if the pace has necessarily dictated those high field goal totals either as four of those six opponents attempted fewer than 90 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to January 28th to find the last time an opponent didn't score 100+ points against the Hawks. Also of note is the fact that the Hawks could very well elect to 'manage' this game as they're in the midst of a stretch that will see them play 11 games in 19 nights and as I mentioned on the second of back-to-backs after a fairly taxing contest last night. Take Portland (10*). |
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03-13-22 | Rockets v. Pelicans OVER 228 | 105-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these teams have played a lick of defense lately and I don't see that changing as they meet up on Sunday night in New Orleans. While the Pelicans have a number of key absences to deal with, most notably C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram, they still managed to score 120 points in a track meet that totalled 260+ against Charlotte two nights ago and I'm anticipating more of the same against the Rockets on Sunday. As I noted in my analysis of a play on the 'over' in the Rockets overtime win over the Lakers earlier this week, Houston has shown no ability or interest in slowing their opponents down, now having yielded 96, 92, 86, 97, 91, 101 and 88 field goal attempts over their last seven games, allowing 112 or more points in all seven contests. Meanwhile, we've seen the Rockets ramp up their own offensive production lately, knocking down 52 and 41 field goals over their last two games (I realize the first of those two performances was aided by overtime). They've scored 100+ points in seven straight games and are expected to get a boost with the return of Christian Wood on Sunday. The Pelicans were doing a nice job defensively after the All-Star break but that seems like an eternity ago now as they've been lit up for 47+ made field goals in three of their last four games. Fortunately their offense has continued to thrive, knocking down 41+ field goals in seven straight games. New Orleans has put up 100+ points in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. We've actually seen all three meetings between these two teams this season stay 'under' the total we're working with here. With that being said, the pace just wasn't there in those three contests but given current form I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*). |
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03-13-22 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 236.5 | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Pacers are coming off an 'under' result last night while the Hawks have seen the 'under' cash in three straight games. I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Indiana allowed an undermanned Spurs squad to get off a whopping 102 field goal attempts in last night's 119-108 win. While the Pacers are in a back-to-back spot here, they'll play just two games in the next six nights afterwards so I don't expect them to attempt to 'manage' this game by any means. Note that Indiana has now allowed 91+ field goal attempts in eight of its last nine contests. Each of its last six opponents has poured in 42+ made field goals. Atlanta, meanwhile, comes in having made good on 42, 43 and 43 field goals over its last three games and has put up 110+ points in five consecutive games. There are concerns defensively, however, as the Hawks have allowed 52, 46, 43, 47 and 40 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't consistently been able to control opponents' tempo, or perhaps haven't been all that interested in doing so. The Pacers are certainly pushing the pace (as usual), getting off 91+ field goal attempts in four of their last five games and making good on 44, 49 and 45 field goals over their last three contests. The most recent meeting between these two teams was played right around the pace we would anticipate on Sunday and it got to 245 total points back on February 8th. Atlanta poured in 52 field goals in that victory and the case could certainly be made for the Pacers being a worse defensive team now, or more disinterested anyway, than they were then. On the flip side, that game started a streak of 13 straight games in which Indiana put up 103+ points. Take the over (6*). |
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03-13-22 | Mavs v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Mavericks last three games and the pace has certainly been there to support that. Dallas has held each of its last three opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts, limiting two of those opponents to exactly 36 made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time Dallas attempted 90+ field goals in a game. It has made fewer than 40 field goals in two of its last three contests and is just one game removed from making good on only 27 field goals in a 77-point performance against the Knicks, at home no less. The Mavs have done a good job of controlling their opponents' tempo on the road this season, allowing just 39-of-86 shooting on average. The Celtics, meanwhile, saw their most recent game creep 'over' the total against Detroit. The 'over' checks in 3-1 in the Celtics last four games but the pace doesn't necessarily support that trend. Boston has held its last three opponents to 89, 84 and 83 field goal attempts with its last two opponents making good on just 36 and 35 field goals. While the C's do come in having hit 40+ field goals in each of their last four games, they've gotten off 89+ field goals in three of those four contests. Should the pace slow down here, as I expect it to against Dallas, it's likely they'll have a tougher time approaching that 40 made field goal mark. Note that the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points and saw a closing total of 210. We're being afforded a higher total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (9*). |
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03-13-22 | Yale v. Princeton OVER 142.5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Princeton at 12 noon et on Sunday. I think the betting markets are a little spooked when it comes to the total here after both of these teams produced 'under' results in yesterday's Ivy League semi-final matchups. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total that we saw in the two regular season meetings, keeping in mind both of those games got into the 150's. Yale didn't need to force the issue yesterday as Penn simply wasn't hitting its shots, making good on just 23-of-58 of its field goal attempts. The Bulldogs have generally been giving up a fairly consistent number of buckets though, yielding 26+ made field goals in five straight games prior to yesterday's contest. That's with a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate Princeton pushing the pace. The Tigers have certainly been 'filling it up' lately, and really all season long. The enter this game having made good on 29+ field goals in seven of their last nine games and have scored 74+ points in five straight contests. An issue, however, is Princeton's inability to slow down opposing offenses, allowing 28, 29, 31 and 32 made field goals over its last four games, yielding 63 or more FG attempts in three straight contests entering Sunday's Championship Game. Take the over (8*). |
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03-12-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M-Corpus Christi minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter the Southland Conference Championship Game playing their best basketball of the season. I simply feel Corpus Christi has been the better all-around team all season and will prove it in this winner-take-all showdown on Saturday night. Note that the Islanders come into this game having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight games. They like to slow the pace, which doesn't suit Southeastern Louisiana all that well. Note that the Lions have made good on 26+ field goals in five straight games but they got off 60+ attempts in three of those five contests. Slow it down and I don't anticipate SE Louisiana enjoying nearly as much success here. On the flip side, the Lions have been lit up for 29+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Yes, they play at a faster pace so that is to be expected, but perhaps not to the level we've seen. Note that four of the Lions last five opponents got into the 30's in terms of made field goals. They're here thanks to New Orleans having an off night shooting the basketball on Friday, making good on just 25-of-62 attempts. Provided the Islanders can shoot for average on Saturday, as I expect them to do (they shoot 44.4% from the field this season), I'm confident they'll prevail. Take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (8*). |
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03-12-22 | Bucks v. Warriors +1.5 | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams come in playing well but it's the Bucks that have been doing it for a longer period, securing six straight wins heading into this clash. The Warriors, meanwhile, righted the ship with consecutive wins over the Clippers and Nuggets this week. I like Golden State to keep it going on Saturday. The Warriors are absolutely locked-in defensively right now. Over their last two games they held L.A. and Denver to a combined 68-for-177 (38.4%) shooting. Meanwhile, despite missing a number of key contributors on any given night, their offense has thrived, knocking down 40+ field goals and scoring 112+ points in six straight games. The Bucks defense is vulnerable right now, having allowed 44, 47, 50, 42 and 43 made field goals over their last five games. In fact, each of their last four opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. While the Milwaukee offense continues to hum along, shooting 50% or better in three straight contests heading into this showdown, I'm anticipating some regression against a revenge-minded Warriors squad here (Milwaukee took the first meeting by 19 points at home in January). Take Golden State (8*). |
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03-12-22 | Louisiana Tech v. UABĀ OVER 135 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana Tech and UAB at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game involving Louisiana Tech yesterday as the Bulldogs defeated North Texas 42-36 in one of the uglier college basketball games you'll ever see. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as the Bulldogs challenge the UAB Blazers in the C-USA Championship Game. Note that the two regular season matchups between these two teams totalled 159 and 161 points. They just faced one another last week and we saw a closing total of 147, so we're dealing with a major adjustment to that number here. I'm not sure it's warranted. Louisiana Tech's three previous opponents in this tournament simply haven't been able to knock down their shots, with only Marshall managing to hit more than 21 field goals (the Thundering Herd made 25 in a 77-67 loss). It's not as if the Bulldogs have been a dominant defensive team all season though, noting that they yield 25-of-59 shooting including 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from home this season. The Blazers offer a much different challenge compared to what the Bulldogs have faced so far in this tournament. UAB checks in having knocked down 32, 32, 27 and 31 field goals over its last four games, scoring 80+ points in each of those contests. I am confident that Louisiana Tech can be along for the ride here, however, noting that the Blazers have proven vulnerable defensively, yielding 25, 22, 29, 23 and 32 made field goals over their last five contests (I realize the latter result involved three overtime periods against Middle Tennessee State yesterday). UAB generally likes to push the pace, averaging 62 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and I do believe that will open the door for the Bulldogs offense here, noting that they hit 53 field goals across the two regular season meetings, even reaching 76 points in the first matchup despite getting off only 52 attempts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 227 | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The pace has fallen off considerably in games involving the T'Wolves lately so not surprisingly, we've seen the 'under' go 2-0-1 over their last three games. In its last five contests, Minnesota has yielded opponents 86, 85, 83, 87 and 86 field goal attempts. None of those opponents made more than 40 of their attempts with three reaching 37 or less. It's unlikely we'll see the Heat show much interest in pushing the pace here, noting that they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, and like the T'Wolves, will be on the second of back-to-backs. We did see Miami's game last night go 'over' the total but the pace wasn't necessarily there as the Heat held the Cavs to just 35-of-79 shooting, but shot lights out themselves. The 'under' has cashed in three of Miami's last five games overall. Note that we saw a closing total of just 212.5 in the first meeting between these two teams back in November. That game totalled just 214 points. I believe tonight's adjustment to the total will prove too much. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 223.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The most recent meeting between these two teams reached 221 total points back in January and as a result we're dealing with a total right around that number for Saturday's third meeting of the season. Keep in mind, in that most recent matchup the two teams shot the lights out (CLE shot 52% and CHI shot 55%). I don't expect anything of that sort on Saturday. The Cavs have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last six games, even if the pace hasn't necessarily been there. Cleveland had a tough enough time just getting shots off in Miami last night, attempting just 79 field goals, but that game ultimately found its way 'over' the low total. Note that the Cavs have attempted 85 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games and face a Bulls squad that has been doing a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, holding four of their last five opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. In fact, the Bulls have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league lately, with the 'under' going 8-2 over their last 10 contests. Note that Chicago has attempted 88 or fewer field goals in four of its last five games. Cleveland has limited Chicago to 84 and 86 FG attempts in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, the Cavs got off just 80 and 77 FG attempts in those two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-22 | San Diego State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Boise State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Aztecs are hoping it will be 'third time's a charm' against Boise State after dropping both regular season meetings by a combined six points. I like their chances of exacting revenge at the best possible time in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Saturday. San Diego State is absolutely locked-in defensively right now, having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games heading into this one. While saying that the Aztecs have made good on 20+ field goals in 12 straight games doesn't sound like much, it is a major positive when you consider the low pace they play at (they attempted fewer than 50 field goals in half of those contests). Boise State isn't playing at the same level defensively as San Diego State, having yielded 26, 26, 28, 26 and 23 made field goals over its last five games. After shooting 50% or better from the field in four straight games, the Broncos cooled off to knock down just 23-of-49 shots in their semi-final victory over Wyoming. Note that in the two regular season matchups between the Aztecs and Broncos it was San Diego State that held a 38-31 edge in terms of field goals made. Boise State, however, got to the free throw line 21 more times across the two games, which ultimately proved to be the difference on both occasions. It's difficult to project that happening again here, noting that Boise State averages just two more FT attempts per game than San Diego State this season. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Pennsylvania v. Yale OVER 144.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Ivy League Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn and Yale at 2 pm et on Saturday. Penn enters this Ivy League semi-final matchup riding a five-game 'over' streak and I look for that to continue against Yale on Saturday. The Quakers were one of the worst defensive teams in the country down the stretch, allowing 28, 30, 30, 28 and 37 made field goals over their last five games. They can't help but continue to push the pace though, as they continue to 'pour it in', knocking down 28, 29, 33, 26 and 31 field goals over their last five games and enter this contest having scored 70+ points in nine straight games - a run that started with a 76-point performance against Yale. The Bulldogs took their share of lumps down the stretch, unable to consistently slow down the opposition, allowing three of their last five opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Their offensive numbers certainly don't pop off the page, but they did manage to make good on 24 or more field goals in five of their last six games, an encouraging sign given that they don't play at all that quick of a pace. Note that we have a potential floor to work with as far as these two offenses go, noting that Yale shot 23-of-59 from the field including just 3-of-19 from beyond the arc in the first meeting between these two teams this season, yet that game still got to 144 total points. The next meeting was higher-scoring as Yale won by an 81-72 score. Take the over (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Wizards +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Wizards opened their current road trip with a six-point loss against the Clippers two nights ago. They're still a solid 5-4 ATS over their last nine games with their four ATS losses over that stretch coming by a combined seven points. We've seen Washington make a concerted effort, at least seemingly, to slow down opposing offenses recently, limiting nine of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Wizards last two opponents have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Lakers doing tonight. Offensively, the Wiz have been 'filling it up', knocking down 41, 46, 45 and 41 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all four of those contests. In fact, they've knocked down 40+ field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Here, the Wiz should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a non-existent Lakers defense. Los Angeles has shown no ability (or interest) to slow down opposing offenses, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games (it allows an average of 91 FG attempts per game at home this season). Each of the Lakers last seven opponents have made good on at least 41 field goal attempts, with five of them knocking down 46+. While the Lakers have been doing a solid job of keeping pace, hitting 40+ field goals in four straight games, I'm not convinced the pace will be there for them to reach that number tonight. Note that the Wizards allow an average of 40-of-88 shooting on the road this season. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on VCU minus the points over Richmond at 8:30 pm et on Friday. VCU will be trying to accomplish the difficult task of defeating the same team three times in one season as it takes on Richmond in A-10 quarter-final action on Friday. I like the Rams chances. Richmond comes off a narrow 64-59 win over Rhode Island yesterday. The Spiders have picked a bad time to go into a bit of a shooting slump. They've knocked down 23, 20, 25 and 18 field goals over their last four contests, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS over that stretch. They had a tough enough time just getting shots off last night, attempting just 47 field goals in their victory over RI. Here, things won't get any easier against a VCU squad that has absolutely locked down the opposition defensively this season and particularly down the stretch. The Rams enter this contest having yielded 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their final three regular season games they gave up only 21, 18 and 21 made field goals. Meanwhile, the VCU offense has been humming along, making good on 24+ field goals in nine straight games including 26+ in seven of those contests. That's not all that impressive on the face of it but when you consider that most of those games were played at a relatively slow pace (with FG attempts in the 50-55 range for the most part) you get a better sense of how efficient the Rams offense has been. Here, I'm expecting a slightly faster pace, noting that the Rams got off 55 and 61 FG attempts in two regular season meetings with the Spiders, knocking down 28 of of those attempts in both games. Richmond shot just 42-of-117 from the field in those two regular season matchups. Richmond only managed to stay close in their home meeting and that was thanks to a wide 21-7 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, something that's unlikely to happen here. Take VCU (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's -6.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Quinnipiac at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for St. Peter's as it takes on Quinnipiac in MAAC Tournament semi-final action on Friday. The Peacocks are as locked-in defensively as any team in the conference and perhaps the entire country right now (relatively speaking, of course). Going back to a February 4th matchup against the same Quinnipiac squad they'll face tonight, they've allowed 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Over their last four contests they've yielded just 13, 17, 15 and 19 made field goals. All the while they've been absolutely frustrating opposing offenses by slowing the pace. While Quinnipiac has knocked down 26+ field goals in three of its last four games, that's had a lot to do with playing at a reasonably fast pace, something we're not likely to see in this particular matchup. Note that the Bobcats shot a miserable 42-of-121 in two regular season matchups between these two teams - both went St. Peter's way by at least nine points. On the flip side, Quinnipiac has done little to slow opposing offenses lately, allowing 28, 27, 28, 29, 23 and 26 made field goals over its last six games. St. Peter's - despite playing at a snail's pace - has made good on 20+ field goals in eight straight games and 25+ in six of those eight contests. While the Peacocks are by no means a perimeter-based team offensively, they did knock down 17 three-pointers in two regular season meetings with the Bobcats. That's not all that surprising considering Quinnipiac yields nine made threes per game this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Wolves -7.5 v. Magic | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the T'Wolves are getting nearly the respect they deserve right now. They've reeled off six straight wins, incredibly scoring 124+ points in all six of those games. They've made good on 45+ field goals in five of those six contests, despite the majority of them being played at a reasonably slow pace. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense continues to shine as well, holding four straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts with three of those four opponents knocking down 37 or less and it draws another favorable matchup here. Speaking of favorable matchups - the Magic have benefited from facing the Suns without Chris Paul and Devin Booker and the Pelicans without Brandon Ingram over their last two games. The T'Wolves aren't at full strength but they're getting healthier and again, it hasn't really mattered who they've trotted out on the floor lately, they've found success. Lost in Orlando's recent 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS surge is the fact that it continues to do little to slow opposing offenses down, yielding 90+ FG attempts in five straight and seven of its last eight games. It has been fortunate that the opposition simply hasn't taken advantage of its opportunities on most nights. I expect a different story to unfold here as a revenge-minded T'Wolves squad hangs another crooked number on the board in a convincing win. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 147.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. This one has all the makings of a track meet as Duke heads into this game riding a four-game 'over' streak while Miami has shot a blistering 50%+ from the field in five consecutive games. The Hurricanes are absolutely locked-in offensively right now, making good on 28+ field goals in eight straight games, albeit boosted by overtime yesterday against Boston College. On the flip side, the Canes aren't really slowing anyone down, allowing 28+ made field goals in three of their last four games and now run into a juggernaut in the Blue Devils. Duke has knocked down 35, 32, 34 and 32 field goals over its last four games, scoring more than 80 points in all four contests. Like Miami, though, Duke has done little to slow opponents down, yielding 27+ made field goals in five of its last seven games. The Blue Devils last two opponents have gotten off 68 and 67 FG attempts. In the lone regular season matchup between these two teams Miami pulled off a stunning 76-74 upset win at Cameron Indoor. That game saw 150 total points despite the two teams hitting only 10 three-pointers (they average 15 per game combined this season) and combining for only 28 free throw attempts (they average 34 FT attempts per game combined). Take the over (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence -3 | 85-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Creighton at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Providence narrowly escaped with a four-point win over Butler last night but I expect it to 'get right' and move on with a more convincing win over Creighton on Friday. The Friars are locked-in defensively right now, allowing just 18, 23 and 22 made field goals over their last three games. While Creighton obviously poses a challenge, I expect Providence to be up for it, noting that it held the Blue Jays to just 18 made field goals including only five from beyond the arc in a 72-51 win in the lone regular season matchup between the two teams. Offensively, we saw the Friars get bogged down against a Butler team that can be very frustrating to play against last night, knocking down only 20 field goals on 54 attempts but it was still enough to get into the 60's and secure the win. Here, I think the Friars will prefer the pace the Blue Jays play at, noting that Creighton has allowed opponents to get off 64+ field goal attempts in six of its last nine games. The Blue Jays have yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Creighton's offense has been rather uneven lately, hitting just 18, 27, 21 and 28 field goals over its last four contests. I'm just not sure it will get enough opportunities to keep within arm's reach here, noting that Providence allows just 24 made field goals and only six from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. Take Providence (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence OVER 130.5 | Top | 85-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Providence at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Creighton enters this game on the heels of four straight 'under' results - a streak that started with a 72-51 road loss against Providence. That low-scoring recent matchup is serving to give us a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Note that Creighton made good on only 18 field goals in that contest, including just four from beyond the arc. While Providence can obviously be tough to break down defensively, the Blue Jays do check in averaging 26 made field goals including seven from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. There's reason to believe they can show at least some improvement offensively in this one. Defensively, it's another matter entirely. The Blue Jays have had no success slowing opposing offenses. Going back to February 20th, they've yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Providence shot 28-of-59 against them four games back. Here, the Friars check in off a poor offensive showing against a frustrating Butler squad last night, making good on only 20 field goals but still managing to score 65 points in a four-point victory. Prior to that, the Friars had hit at least 25 field goals in six straight games, scoring 70+ points in all six of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Washington v. USC OVER 141.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and USC at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. Washington enters this game having seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six and 11 of its last 13 games overall. USC, meanwhile, has posted a 3-1 o/u record over its last four games. Washington didn't do much to stop the Utah offense in last night Pac-12 Tournament opener, but prevailed thanks to its own offense pouring in 82 points on 30 made field goals. The Huskies have now allowed 26 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games, including back on February 17th when they allowed the same USC squad they'll face tonight knock down 30-of-62 attempts from the field in a 79-69 loss. There was really nothing special that got that contest 'over' the total. In fact, it was an off night for the Washington offense as they could only make good on 22-of-60 field goal attempts. The Huskies were mired in a scoring slump at that time - a stretch that saw them knock down just 21, 22 and 18 field goals in consecutive games. Here, Washington enters having hit 25 or more field goals in six straight games and 32 and 30 in its last two contests. USC has been hot as well, knocking down 33, 26, 27 and 25 field goals over its last four games. The pace didn't necessarily dictate all that high-scoring of performances over its last few games but here I suspect we'll have to combatants willing to go up and down the floor. Neither has shown any consistent ability or interest in slowing down their opponents tempo. While we are dealing with a higher posted total than we saw for the first meeting this season, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Nuggets win in Sacramento last night and also cashed with the Warriors in their most recent game - a victory over the Clippers on Tuesday. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as Golden State and Denver match up for the second time in the last four nights. The Warriors saw their four-game 'over' streak come to an end in that win over the Clippers two nights ago. Interestingly, the pace hadn't necessarily been there during their run of 'overs', allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in six straight games heading into that home date with L.A. The Clippers actually managed to get off 93 FG attempts against them on Tuesday but knocked down only 33 of them. Here, we'll note that Golden State yields just 39-of-86 shooting on the road this season with its games totalling an average of 217.3 points. The Nuggets have held four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and allow an average of only 86 attempts per game at home this season. They've allowed 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games overall with the 'under' going 4-3 along the way. Monday's matchup between these two teams reached a whopping 255 points but that one was played under unique circumstances as the Warriors elected to rest most of their starters and didn't play with a great deal of intensity. Keep in mind, these two teams have been involved in a game that totalled just 175 points this season, so the potential for a low-scoring affair is there despite the lofty total. Note that Monday's game saw a whopping 64 free throw attempts (46 of them made). The two teams average only 40 free throw attempts per game (and make 31 of them). While that doesn't make up for the difference considering the total we're working with here, I do think we'll see a little more defense helping keep this rematch 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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03-10-22 | South Florida +9.5 v. UCF | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
AAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over UCF at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed badly with South Florida in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 75-47 decision at Temple to close out the regular season last Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Bulls here, however, as I do feel they're well-positioned to give Central Florida all it can handle on Thursday. Lost in that blowout defeat against Temple was the fact that the Bulls did once again hold up alright defensively (given the circumstances - with their offense unable to hit a shot), allowing just 22 made field goals on 56 attempts. USF has now yielded only 20, 22, 16, 19, 24 and 22 made field goals over its last six games. When a team plays like that, it makes it tough on the opponent to cover a lofty pointspread, as we're dealing with here. Keep in mind, prior to Sunday's game, the Bulls had shown some signs of life offensively, knocking down 20+ field goals in nine straight games and hitting 25, 23 and 25 in their last there - all ATS victories. I do think the Bulls can frustrate an average UCF offense here. The Knights are used to getting up into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. The last two times they were held to fewer than 60 attempts they eked out a three-point win at home against East Carolina (as a nine-point favorite) and lost by one point at Tulsa (as a one-point favorite). The Knights have regularly been allowing opponents to get loose offensively, allowing 23 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games (no fewer than 22 over that period) after a stretch in late January-early February that saw them hold consecutive opponents to 22, 21 and 18. USF took the first meeting in this series this season in blowout fashion at home before a revenge-minded Knights squad returned the favor on their home floor. In the Bulls 19-point road loss to UCF on February 3rd, they knocked down only 18 field goals including only 2-of-13 attempts from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCF poured in 14 threes. The fact that the margin was 'only' 19 points was actually encouraging heading into this one as far as I'm concerned, as the Bulls really can't play any worse than they did on that occasion. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 136 | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Michigan at 11:30 am et on Thursday. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams totalled 142 points and as a result we're dealing with a slightly higher posted total for this one. I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made, however. The Hoosiers haven't made life all that difficult on opposing offenses lately. Note that their opponents have made good on 26, 23, 27, 24 and 23 field goals over their last five games. At the face of it, those numbers don't look all bad. However, when you consider the Hoosiers yielded 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those five contests you see a different picture. Here, I do think Michigan will be able to push the pace a little bit. The Wolverines have had their own issues containing opposing offenses, giving up 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games. The only occasion where they didn't give up that number was last time out against Ohio State - a game in which the Buckeyes still shot a solid 24-of-50 from the field. On the flip side, the Michigan offense has been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 27 or more field goals in five straight games while getting off 60 and 68 FG attempts in its last two contests, showing a keen interest in pushing the tempo as I mentioned. Indiana should be a willing participant in an up-and-down affair here though, noting that despite playing at a slower pace, the Hoosiers have knocked down 28, 30, 23 and 26 field goals over their last four games, scoring 74, 84, 63 and 67 points along the way. Take the over (9*). |
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03-09-22 | Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 85-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Consider this a 'load management' type of game for the Jazz. That doesn't mean that we're going to see them rest starters, certainly not after losing two of their last three games. I'm not just not convinced we're going to see Utah go flat out for four quarters in this one as it should only be a matter of time before it pulls away as a massive favorite against a reeling, injury-riddled Blazers squad. Note that the Jazz are just a day removed from a back-to-back set in Oklahoma City and Dallas and after tonight's game will look ahead to another back-to-back at San Antonio and then back home against Sacramento on Friday and Saturday. While the Jazz offense is terrific, they're not playing at all that fast of a pace, having attempted fewer than 90 field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They average just 86 field goal attempts per game at home this season. After allowing 135 points in the front half of their two-game set in Minnesota, the Blazers did hold the T'Wolves to 38-of-92 shooting in the rematch. Offensively, Portland is a train wreck right now. After a pre-trade deadline fire sale, the Blazers lost a number of key contributors to injury with Anfernee Simons the most recent to go down with a leg injury. Simons might be able to go tonight but I think there's a better chance the Blazers give him another night off in this game they're highly-unlikely to win. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games, reaching just 78 in two of those contests. They've made good on a woeful 31, 34, 30, 40 (in a game where Simons poured in 38 points against Minnesota) and 23 field goals over their last five contests. Take the under (8*). |
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03-09-22 | Nuggets v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on the heels of consecutive 'over' results. Not surprisingly we're dealing with a very high total for this matchup. I believe it will prove too high. The pace hasn't necessarily been there during Denver's current 3-1 'over' run. The lone game in which it allowed more than 88 field goals over that stretch came in an overtime victory over New Orleans on Sunday (we missed with the 'under' in that game). Note that offensively, the Nuggets have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three consecutive games. Playing their third game in four nights on Wednesday (before returning home to host Golden State for the second time in three nights tomorrow), I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet here. Sacramento has been struggling offensively, at least when it comes to efficiency, as it has made good on 35, 39, 46 and 39 field goals over its last four games. The 46 field goal performance came in a 114-113 loss in Dallas (it's worth noting that final score would have stayed well below the total we're working with tonight). Defensively, the Kings continue to struggle as well, but again I'm just not sure the pace will be there to help this one 'over' the total, noting that seven of Sacramento's last 10 opponents have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts. That includes two previous matchups with the Nuggets in which Denver attempted 86 and 82 field goals. In all three meetings this season, Denver has totalled 86 FG attempts or less. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -10 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Georgetown at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It's been an absolutely disastrous season for Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas. They do, however, enter the Big East Tournament having gone 4-2 ATS over their last six games. That's little consolation, of course, and only serves to give us the opportunity to back Seton Hall at a discount here, noting that the Pirates closed as 13.5-point favorites against the Hoyas just last week. The Pirates only won that game by five points as they turned in a poor 4-of-20 shooting effort from beyond the arc. I certainly anticipate improvement in that regard here, noting that the Pirates average seven made threes per game away from home this season while Georgetown gives up an average of nine. While the Hoyas did enjoy some late season pointspread success, the fact is they check in having given up 30, 30, 28, 30, 24, 23, 30, 28 and 35 made field goals over their last nine games. In other words, they were consistently awful at the defensive end of the floor. That's to go along with an offense that last knocked down more than 27 field goals in a game way back on December 18th - before the start of Big East play. On the flip side, Seton Hall had to learn to run their offense without PG Bryce Aiken down the stretch and did so nicely, securing five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) leading up to this tournament. The Pirates made good on 25, 29, 28 and 27 field goals in their last four regular season games and while that's steady performance, I look for them to show some improvement in this mouth-watering matchup. It's defensively where Seton Hall has really shone. Opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone hitting them, with the Pirates yielding just 59, 54, 50, 57 and 54 field goal attempts during their five-game winning streak. The high-water mark was 59 and in that contest Seton Hall allowed DePaul to make only 19 of those attempts. Take Seton Hall (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Magic v. Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans seemingly 'punted' last night's game in Memphis, sitting Brandon Ingram in what turned out to be a blowout loss (we won with the 'over'). Here, I expect a much better performance from New Orleans as it returns home to host Orlando, which is also in a back-to-back spot off a three-point home loss against the Suns last night. Note that the Magic's offense has gone back in the tank, knocking down just 36, 37 and 35 field goals over its last three games despite getting off 95, 86 and 92 field goal attempts in those three contests. Meanwhile, Orlando has shown no ability to control its opponents tempo, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Even without Ingram last night in Memphis, New Orleans stayed reasonably hot offensively, knocking down 41-of-88 FG attempts. Over their last five games, the Pelicans have made good on 47, 52, 50, 48 and 41 field goals. With the Magic projected to allow them to get off 90+ attempts tonight, there's plenty of runway for the improved Pelicans offense to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. On the flip side, New Orleans had been doing a nice job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities up until last night, yielding fewer than 90 FG attempts in six straight games. The Magic have had a tough enough time reaching 100 points when being afforded 90+ attempts. If they can't get close to that many opportunities on Wednesday, they should be in for a long night, noting also that while New Orleans allows 109.5 points per game overall this season, that average drops to 104.0 ppg when coming off two or more consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
America East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland-Baltimore County minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Beating a team three times in one season is no simply task but I expect Maryland-Baltimore County to accomplish that feat and book its spot in the America East Championship Game with a convincing victory over Hartford on Wednesday. Both regular season meetings were relatively close but the Retrievers ultimately prevailed by four and seven-point margins. Hartford actually got off 61 and 65 field goal attempts in those two contests while UMBC attempted just 52 and 50 field goals yet the Hawks still fell short on both occasions. Given Hartford's current form, having knocked down just 21, 27 and 16 field goals in its last three games, I'm not convinced it will be able to stay within arm's reach this time around. Note that UMBC will give up plenty of opportunities, yielding 60+ FG attempts in six straight games entering this matchup. But the Hawks aren't really adept at pushing the pace, shooting just 25-of-55 on the road this season, and have attempted fewer than 50 field goals in three of their last six games. I don't think this is going to be a comfortable environment for Hartford on Wednesday. UMBC checks in having made good on 33, 23, 25, 29, 28 and 29 field goals over its last six contests, scoring 90+ points in four of those games. In other words, the Retrievers have been very consistent in what they do on offense. While they do allow opponents to get out and run, they've only given up an average of 27 made field goals per game (on an average of 61 attempts per contest) here at home this season. As an added bonus, the Retrievers check in as one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, knocking down just shy of 80% of their attempts. I don't need to tell you how much that matters at this time of year especially. Take Maryland-Baltimore County (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 142.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oregon State and Oregon at 5:30 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that played worse defensively down the stretch than Oregon State. The Beavers check in having allowed a ridiculous 30+ made field goals in six of their last eight games. The last time they played in-state rival Oregon, they gave up 78 points on 31 made field goals despite the Ducks barely needing to break a sweat getting off just 56 field goal attempts. Here, I do think Oregon State can be along for the ride, however, noting that Oregon brings awful defensive form into this contest as well. The Ducks check in having yielded 31, 31, 25, 26, 27 and 32 made field goals over their last six games. That's despite four of their six opponents over that stretch hoisting up fewer than 60 FG attempts. While the first meeting between these two teams totalled 154 points back in early January, the aforementioned second matchup reached only 134 points. That was thanks to the Beavers hitting just 20-of-66 field goals including only five from beyond the arc. While the Beavers offense isn't going to wow anyone, that was arguably its worst performance of the season. They did ramp things up a bit down the stretch, knocking down at least 23 field goals in seven of their last nine games. Of course, we all remember Oregon State's incredible run to a Pac-12 championship last year. While that's probably not in the cards this year, I don't expect the Beavers to go down without a fight. Take the over (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Clippers v. Warriors -6.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors have somewhat quietly dropped five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall, including a 131-124 loss in Denver last night. Of course that loss on Monday was to be expected as they rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. Here, I look for a big response in the Warriors first game back home following a four-game road trip. They dropped their last game on this floor, blowing a big lead against the Mavericks, who are playing some of the best basketball of any team in the NBA right now. The Clippers are not in that same vein, coming off a 116-93 drubbing at home against the Knicks on Sunday. They've allowed their last two opponents - two struggling teams at that in the Lakers and Knicks - to knock down 41 and 42 field goals despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They'll without question have their hands full against a revenge-minded Warriors squad that even without a number of key contributors still made good on 45-of-88 FG attempts and poured in 124 points in Denver last night. While Golden State has been giving up plenty of points during its current skid, there are positives to take away as it has held all six opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts since the All-Star break. The opposition isn't going to continue to knock down its shots at such a clip as we've seen, noting that Golden State has allowed an average of 37-for-87 (42.2%) shooting at home this season. Take Golden State (9*). |
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03-08-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 148.5 | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
WAC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Rio Grande Valley and Cal Baptist at 9 pm et on Tuesday. |
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03-08-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 231.5 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pelicans overtime loss in Denver two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Tuesday and back the 'over' as they wrap up their brief two-game road trip in Memphis. New Orleans is undoubtedly 'feeling it' right now, as evidenced by it hoisting up 92+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games, entering this contest on the heels of four straight games scoring 123+ points. The Pelicans will need every bit of that offensive production if they want to contend with the Grizzlies here. Memphis checks in off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Rockets two nights ago. The Grizz continued to force the issue offensively in that one, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts, marking the fifth time in the last seven games they attempted at least 92 field goals. I do think they're catching the Pelicans at the right time here. New Orleans was always bound for some regression defensively after an incredible run coming out of the break and we saw just that on Sunday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 47-of-87 (54%) from the field in a 138-point effort (boosted by overtime, mind you). The Grizzlies come into this game having hit at least 42 field goals in five straight games and have scored 107+ points in an incredible 17 straight games. This is the highest total we've seen in this series this season but it's warranted in my opinion. Note that in their most recent matchup on February 15th, we saw 230 total points despite New Orleans shooting a miserable 4-of-26 from three-point range. The Pelicans will no doubt improve on that performance here, helping this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Marshall -3.5 v. Florida International | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marshall minus the points over Florida International at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Florida International picked the wrong time to go into a shooting slump, entering the C-USA Tournament on the heels of four consecutive losses, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Because of their late season woes, the Panthers draw a very capable, revenge-minded Marshall squad in their tournament opener on Tuesday. Marshall also enters the tourney on a losing skid, having dropped three in a row. I like the Thundering Herd's offense in this particular matchup, noting that FIU has allowed 31, 25 and 27 made field goals over its last three games, despite allowing 57 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those contests. Marshall will undoubtedly push the pace here (it averages 64 field goal attempts per game away from home this season) and if it is successful in doing so, I'm confident it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard against a vulnerable Panthers defense. FIU has made good on just 23, 22, 18 and 25 field goals over its last four contests. It shot well in both meetings against Marshall during the regular season, a big reason it was able to win both games. Keep in mind, those two contests could have gone either way with the Panthers prevailing by just four and one-point margins. There was really nothing special about either performance from FIU. Marshall is a favored for a reason here as it looks to finally put one over on FIU in the most important matchup of its season. Take Marshall (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Nets -4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Nets on the heels of four straight losses including Sunday's 126-120 loss in a nationally-televised matinee affair in Boston. Kevin Durant is still saying the right things (he of course recently returned from injury) and I don't think the Nets are hitting the panic button by any means, even as they continue to fall in the Eastern Conference standings. With a tough matchup with the 76ers on deck in Philadelphia, getting a win here is of critical importance. Note that the Nets have knocked down 42 and 45 field goals in their last two road games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of those contests. Also on a positive note, the Nets have held their last two opponents to just 77 and 83 FG attempts. The Heat and Celtics simply shot the lights out in those two contests. I'm not anticipating the same type of offensive performance from Charlotte here. The Hornets are off consecutive wins but they've been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that they've allowed seven of their last nine opponents to get off 90+ FG attempts and if that happens tonight, as it likely will, the Nets offense should be able to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. While laying almost a handful of points on the road is certainly a concern, the Nets have managed to go a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven victories with five of those seven wins coming away from home (not surprisingly as Kyrie Irving is only available to the team for road games not played in New York). Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Boston College -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 66-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this ACC Tournament opener sets up for Boston College. The Eagles do limp into the tourney off three consecutive SU and ATS losses but none of those defeats were for lack of trying. The Eagles actually missed the cover by just a bucket last time out at Georgia Tech, putting forth a valiant effort in an 82-78 loss as a three-point underdog. I like the consistency Boston College has shown offensively down the stretch, knocking down 26 or more field goals in four of its last five games, despite getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in all five of those contests. While the Eagles defense did lag in their final two games allowing 31 and 30 made field goals, they did continue to do a good job of controlling tempo, yielding no more than 56 field goal attempts in any of their last five games (in that game where they gave up 56, Florida State knocked down only 19 of them). Pitt has dropped each of its last four games both SU and ATS. It reached a high-water mark of only 25 made field goals over that stretch. Away from its home floor this season, the Panthers averaged a woeful 20 made field goals per game, having a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting just 50 field goals per contest in 'away' games. While Boston College at least showed some signs of life defensively in the final few weeks of the season, Pitt got torched for 26, 32, 32 and 27 made field goals over its final four games. The 27 allowed against Notre Dame in its regular season finale came on just 48 attempts. In fact, the Panthers last three opponents all shot better than 55% from the field. While Pitt did manage to split the regular season series against Boston College that was only thanks to getting to the free throw line 28 times in its home matchup (a game the Panthers won by just two points, failing to cover as three-point favorites). BC took the return match in Chestnut Hill by 13 points as a 3.5-point favorite on January 30th. Take Boston College (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Purdue-Fort Wayne at 9:30 pm et on Monday. |
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03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Spurs enter Monday's game riding a four-game losing streak. They certainly haven't quit on the season though. That's evident by the fact that they've poured in 100+ points in nine straight games. The Spurs continue to apply a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in 10 consecutive contests. While they've continued to give up plenty of points as well, we have seen some signs of a potential turnaround, noting that they've held their last four opponents to 83, 89, 84 and 91 FG attempts. The Lakers are in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after a big upset win over the Warriors at home on Saturday. Consistency has certainly not been a part of the Lakers vocabulary this season and I expect that to hold true here. Note that Los Angeles has yielded 92+ FG attempts in three of its last four games, giving up 123, 109, 132 and 116 points over that stretch. Offensively, we've seen the Lakers manage to get off fewer than 90 FG attempts in four straight games, fortunate to knock down 40+ in each of their last two contests. There's not a lot of margin for error when it comes to the Lakers, especially with Anthony Davis remaining sidelined. Here, we'll note that the Lakers are just 13-28 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons and 9-18 ATS off a victory of any kind this season. The Spurs, meanwhile, are 38-24 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 235 | Top | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We just saw a track meet between these two teams two nights ago on this floor as the T'Wolves rolled to a 135-121 victory. Minnesota is on an incredible offensive run right now, having scored 127+ points in four straight games. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries - too many to mention. With that in mind, I'm not convinced either will be interested in another track meet on Monday. Note that the Blazers have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, they've gotten off 85 or less FG attempts themselves in four of their last five contests, held to 34 or fewer made field goals in three of those games. As I mentioned, the T'Wolves are on a scoring tear and have seen the 'over' cash in five straight games. The pace of play doesn't necessarily bear it out, however, noting that Minnesota has held four of its last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. It has actually done a nice job defensively at home all season, giving up an average of just 38 made field goals per game on just north of 43% shooting. I expect this lofty total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers most recent game on Saturday in Miami with that result snapping their streak of six straight 'overs'. I believe the total will prove too high once again on Monday as the Sixers return home to host the reeling Bulls. Chicago desperately needs to stop the bleeding, having lost four straight games. The turnaround needs to start at the defensive end of the floor as they check in having allowed 112+ points in each of those four losses. Note that Chicago has allowed just 107.5 points per game after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons with those games totalling an average of 219.1 points. Note that despite allowing a boatload of points, the Bulls have done a better job of keeping their opponents scoring opportunities in check over the last three games, allowing 81, 84 and 88 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had allowed 90+ FG attempts in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, the Bulls have shot the lights out over their last three games; 49%, 59% and 50%, respectively. I don't expect that to continue against a Sixers defense that has allowed fewer than 40 made field goals and less than 90 FG attempts in four of their last five games. Prior to Saturday's loss, Philadelphia had scored 123+ points in five straight games. Its pace certainly didn't support those gawdy point totals, noting that it got off 82 or fewer FG attempts in four of those five contests. Regression caught up with the Sixers on Saturday (I realize James Harden sat that game out, a key contributing factor as well) as they scored just 82 points on 34% shooting. While the 'over' has cashed in two of three previous meetings between these two teams this season, none of those games went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-22 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 130-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We've been riding the 'under' in Pelicans games since the All-Star break, cashing all three of our plays including in their last game as they dispatched the Jazz in stunning fashion in a 124-90 victory, easily cruising 'under' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, noting that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 with the Pelicans installed as a road underdog of six points or less this season, as is the case here (that situation has produced an average total of 209.2 points). Interestingly, in nine previous instances where the Pelicans have played on the road following consecutive home games, they've averaged only 102.0 points per game (compared to their season road scoring average of 104.6 points per game). The 'under' has gone 8-1 in that spot with an average total of just 207.6 points. Save for two offensive explosions against awful defensive opponents in the Kings and Blazers, the Nuggets have only been average offensively since the break. In five games since the break, they've reached 90 field goal attempts only once and that came in a game where they were in comeback mode in en eventual loss against the Thunder. The good news is, their defense has held up well, allowing 38 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans are as locked in at that end of the floor as any team in the league right now, having yielded 36 or fewer made field goals on less than 90 field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone a perfect 4-0 over that stretch. The 'over' has cashed in two of three meetings between these two teams this season but only one of those games surpassed the total we're working with here (both teams shot better than 51% in that matchup back in early December). Note that six of nine meetings in this series over the last three seasons have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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03-06-22 | Tulane +9.5 v. SMU | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over SMU at 3 pm et on Sunday. SMU won by nine points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Tulane certainly had its opportunities in that game as it got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts (compared to SMU's 52) but simply couldn't knock anything down, making good on just 24 of those 65 attempts, including only 7-of-19 from beyond the arc in the home defeat. Note that SMU shot the lights out from three-point range in that game, knocking down 15 threes and also made good on five more free throw attempts than Tulane, yet still only won by nine. You could argue that the Green Wave enter this rematch in better form offensively. Since February 5th, they've poured in 30, 20, 29, 29, 23, 18 and 28 made field goals. Even in the game where they only hit 18 they still only lost by five points at Temple. SMU continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses, allowing 62 or more field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Not only that but the Mustangs offense has sagged, making good on just 39-of-107 FG attempts over their last two games. While SMU will be taking a step down in class here, I expect Tulane to keep things interesting. Take Tulane (8*). |
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03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
American Athletic Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida enters Sunday's game against Temple on the heels of three consecutive ATS wins. While the Bulls have endured a tough season on the whole, they have undoubtedly been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Note that they've done a tremendous job defensively, limiting their last five opponents to 20, 22, 16, 19 and 24 made field goals. Meanwhile, Temple has sagged in that department lately, allowing at least 23 made field goals in five of its last six contests. The Owls offense had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in their most recent game, falling by an 84-46 score at Houston. South Florida isn't Houston, but the fact is the Owls have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Keep in mind, the first time these two teams met this season South Florida prevailed by a 52-49 score, limiting Temple to just 18-of-49 from the field. There's actually plenty of room for improvement from the USF offense here after it knocked down only 20-of-55 FG attempts in that victory. The Bulls enter this game on a streak of nine straight games hitting at least 20 field goals. That's no big accomplishment for most teams, but it's certainly more than can be said for Temple which has been held to 18 or less field goals twice in its last seven contests. Here, we'll note that Temple checks in 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss in which it scored 60 points or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 10.0 points in that situation. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 227 | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We came close to playing the 'under' in the Warriors most recent game but wisely laid off as that contest soared 'over' the total in Dallas. Here, I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the Warriors head to Los Angeles to face the reeling Lakers. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Mavs two nights ago but both teams shot the lights out in a game that ultimately totalled 235 points. Having allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, I look for a strong response from the Golden State defense in this one. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in off an embarrassing loss to the rival Clippers on Thursday. Like the Warriors, they've also allowed three consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. At the other end of the court they've had a difficult enough time running their offense let alone scoring. They're just two games removed from a 95-point effort here at home against the Pelicans. They did shoot just shy of 49% from the field against the Clippers last time out but that was a game that warranted little intensity with the outcome never really in doubt as the Clips cruised to a 21-point victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-12 with the Warriors coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 218.6 points. The 'under' is 39-23 with the Lakers seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. Take the under (9*). |
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03-05-22 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 221 | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the 76ers come-from-behind win over the Cavs last night - a game that somewhat surprisingly got into the 240's. Philadelphia once again shot the lights out in that contest, actually getting off only 75 field goal attempts but knocking down 41 of them in the win. Here, I expect the Sixers to face a lot more resistance against a Heat defense that allows opponents to shoot just 37-of-83 on average at home this season. Like the Sixers, the Heat shot exceptionally well in their most recent game, knocking down 40-of-77 shots in a road win over Brooklyn. That game still ultimately stayed 'under' the total and the 'under' has now cashed in seven of Miami's last 12 games overall. Note that these two teams have met twice previously this season. On both occasions one of the two squads was held under 100 points. Those two contests totalled just 197 and 207 points yet we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total for this one. Recency bias is certainly at play, too much so in my opinion. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We missed by the narrowest of margins with the 'under' in Stanford's last game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Arizona. Credit the Cardinal for at least slowing the Wildcats down enough to stay inside the pointspread in that game but it wasn't enough to keep it 'under' the total. Nevertheless, we'll go back to the well with the same play here as the Cardinal stay on the road to face a much slower-paced opponent in Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 22 made field goals on average here at home this season, limiting opponents to just under 64 points per game. Going back to February 12th, they've yielded just 18, 19, 21, 21, 21, 23 and 18 made field goals in their last seven contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at a 5-2 clip over that stretch. While Arizona has also been shooting the ball well, fueling its current three-game winning streak and 6-1 run, I do think Stanford will pose a challenge here. The Cardinal have limited each of their last six opponents to 27 made field goals or fewer. Perhaps more importantly, they've been able to limit scoring opportunities in general, holding the opposition to 55 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five games. Unfortunately for them, it hasn't translated to victories as their offense has been uneven at best, knocking down 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Wildcats up-tempo style was really the only thing that afforded Stanford the ability to approach 30 made field goals and 70 points last time out. I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that Stanford was held to 19-of-50 shooting, albeit in a winning effort, in its first meeting with Arizona State this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Harvard at 2 pm et on Saturday. When these teams matched up for the first time this season they combined to score only 119 points and as a result we're working with a lower posted total for this rematch. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair between the Big Green and Crimson. After a major offensive lull from January into early February, Dartmouth has started 'filling it up' again lately, knocking down 23, 28, 26 and 28 field goals in its last four contests, scoring 70+ points in three of those games. I'm confident the Big Green can continue their surge against a Harvard squad that has allowed 25+ made field goals in four of its last five games. On the flip side, we've seen the Crimson perform well offensively lately as well, even if the wins haven't come. They're coming off back-to-back losses but have knocked down 29, 28 and 29 field goals in their last three games, scoring 77, 67 and 73 points along the way. Note that Dartmouth hit only six three-pointers in its first meeting with Harvard this season but averages nine made threes per contest on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 152.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Alabama and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two SEC rivals totalled only 137 points this season. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around, largely due to recent high-scoring results from both teams. I see a different story unfolding on Saturday, however. Note that LSU has held the opposition to an average of 19-for-54 shooting here at home this season. After falling short in a high-scoring game against Arkansas last time out, I'm not sure the Tigers want to get involved in a track meet against a more athletic Alabama squad here. The Crimson Tide's most recent game reached 158 points against Texas A&M but that was only thanks to both teams shooting the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair. I don't expect the Tide to have such a difficult time containing an LSU offense that has topped out at 28 made field goals over its last four games and averages that exact number here at home this season. Keep in mind, in the first matchup between these two teams, LSU knocked down 10 three-pointers, well north of its season average, yet still only got to 67 points. Alabama benefited from 32 trips to the free throw line in that contest, a number I don't expect it to approach with the scene shifting to Baton Rouge for this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns most recent game - a 120-90 win over the Blazers two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Friday, however, as Phoenix hosts the reeling Knicks. New York has essentially stopped playing defense entirely, checking in having allowed 111 points or more in 11 consecutive games. The Knicks are coming off consecutive matchups with the 76ers with Philadelphia putting up 125 and 123 points without hardly breaking a sweat. Philadelphia actually let up in those two contests, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals, yet still managed to get well north of 120 points in both games. While the Suns are without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker, they're still capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard against bad defensive teams, as they showed in scoring 120 points against Portland on Wednesday. Note that Cam Payne made his return to the lineup in that game and while he contributed only five points, he was a difference-maker in 20 minutes of action, dishing out eight assists in the victory. I look for the Suns to continue to force the issue here without Booker and Paul, with consecutive home losses against the Pelicans and Jazz still fresh in their minds. While the Knicks aren't stopping anyone right now, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 100 or more points in 13 consecutive games. The duo of Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett continue to pad their stats on a nightly basis. They put up 108 points against a good Sixers defense despite getting only three points on 1-of-8 shooting from Evan Fournier two nights ago. Fournier is a streaky shooter but generally bounces back from bad performances. Just two games ago he shot 9-of-16 from the field in a 24-point effort. The Suns are a quality defensive team and allow just 105.6 points per game on the season, however they've given up 110.9 points per game when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at a 23-12 clip in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | 90-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While the Jazz have seen their last three games fly 'over' the total the Pelicans check in off of three consecutive 'under' results. We actually won with the 'under' in New Orleans' most recent game - a blowout victory over the Kings two nights ago. This is a game where I look for the Jazz to 'manage' proceedings in some sense after an overtime game in Houston and in the midst of a brutal stretch that sees them play at least every other day from now through April 2nd. That's right, Utah won't enjoy consecutive days off until April 3rd and 4th. So on the heels of three consecutive wild, tightly-contested, dare I say energy-draining wins coming out of the All-Star break, I'm expecting Utah to take a more measured approach to this winnable road game. I call it a 'winnable' game as let's face it, they all are for a team as talented as the Jazz. With that being said, the Pelicans should offer some resistance as they come in playing exceptionally well, winners of three straight games coming out of the break. They've held four of their last nine opponents to fewer than 100 points (that's a considerable accomplishment by today's NBA standards). Each of their last four opponents have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The pace of the Pelicans most recent game against Sacramento didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result (they put up 125 points on 88 FG attempts) but they shot the lights out, knocking down 59.1% of their attempts. I'm certainly not expecting a repeat performance here as Utah hasn't allowed more than 88 FG attempts in any of its last seven games and should bounce back defensively after yielding 50%+ shooting in each of its last two contests. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have now seen each of their last five games go 'over' the total. It's not a sustainable run in my opinion, especially considering the pace they've been playing at. Note that Philadelphia's last three 'over' results have had more to do with the inept nature of their opponent's defense than anything else (T'Wolves and two against the Knicks). The Sixers have actually attempted 82 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games. Over that stretch they had one game where they only hit 23 of them. They also enter this game having held each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Now they host a slumping Cavs squad that has scored fewer than 100 points in three of their last six games. We can anticipate Cleveland at least playing with some purpose defensively off consecutive losses, more than we could say for the Sixers last three opponents. Note that Cleveland has limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. These two teams just met back on February 12th and the game totalled only 196 points. The Sixers didn't have James Harden for that one and while he's certainly a difference-maker, I'm not convinced the big adjustment to the total is warranted (that game saw a closing total of 210.5). Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Toledo at 6:30 pm et on Friday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it. While we're dealing with a very high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Bowling Green hasn't had any success in slowing the pace although I'm not sure it really has any interest in doing so. The Falcons have allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against BGSU, knocking down 28, 34, 44, 28, 27, 28 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Enter Toledo. The Rockets have lit it up, making good on 105 field goals in their last three games alone, scoring 92, 88 and 92 points in those three contests. The Rockets play at an even faster pace than the Falcons, yielding 63+ field goal attempts to opponents in six of their last seven games. That should open the door for the Falcons capable offense to go off as well in an effort to keep up. BGSU has been fairly consistent offensively, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Friday's contest. The Falcons didn't shoot particularly well in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but still made good on 30 FG attempts including 10 from beyond the arc for 78 points in a game that totalled 169 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and San Diego State at 11 pm et on Thursday. There are times where the oddsmakers simply can't set a total low enough (or high enough) and I feel this is such a spot. Fresno State checks in off a relatively high-scoring 71-68 win over New Mexico last time out. Meanwhile, San Diego State has seen its last two games go 'over' the total. That only helps to keep this number in a playable range for us on Thursday. Both teams are capable of playing stout defense and slowing the game to a crawl. In fact, they prefer it that way. Fresno State has held opponents to an average of 22-of-50 shooting on the road this season while San Diego State has been even better here at home, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-53 field goals and only five made threes per game. While both teams are capable of 'filling it up' against the weaker teams in the Mountain West, that's rarely been the case in matchups with the conference's power teams. Note that the first meeting between the Bulldogs and Aztecs this season totalled just 105 points. We saw just 37 combined field goals made in that contest. The only thing that ended up boosting the total north of the century mark was the fact that the two teams knocked down 15 threes. Keep in mind, Fresno State and San Diego State combine to average just 12 made threes per game this season so a repeat performance isn't necessarily a sure thing in that regard. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Fresno coming off an ATS loss this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Aztecs following up consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 219 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams since the start of February and while I often suggest that familiarity lends itself to lower-scoring basketball, I don't believe that will be the case in this particular spot. The Lakers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total, helping keep this number in check on Thursday. Keep in mind, we're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in the most recent meeting between these two L.A. rivals just a week ago. The Clippers check in off three consecutive 'under' results. With that being said, they've actually been allowing opponents to get out and run, with each of their last five opponents getting off at least 90 field goal attempts. The fact that three of their last four games have come against the lowly Rockets has certainly contributed to their recent run of low-scoring games in my opinion. The last time these two teams met the Lakers got off 93 field goal attempts but knocked down less than 42% of them. I do look for them to improve on that shooting percentage here. What I'm not sure they can fix in short order is their defense, or lack thereof. The Lakers have yielded 40+ made field goals in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 43, 48, 40, 51, 41, 34 and 42 field goals in their last seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-5 with the Clips playing at home off a road win over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 226.2 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 with the Clippers coming off three consecutive games in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 235.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 147.5 | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a 91-71 blowout win at USC on Tuesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats begin a two-game homestand to close out the regular season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 142 points. We're dealing with a slightly lower posted total this time around but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment was made. Stanford got off a whopping 70 field goal attempts in that game yet still only got to 57 points. Here, I don't expect the Cardinal to attempt nearly as many shots, noting that they've gotten off just 54, 58, 49 58, 54 and 51 FG attempts over their last six contests. On the flip side, Stanford has done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check lately, limiting its last five opponents to 70 points or less on 57 or fewer FG attempts. Arizona will obviously always be looking to push the pace, but I'm not convinced it will have to for a full 40 minutes here, noting it checks in as a nearly 20-point favorite at home. While the Wildcats offense gets all of the press, their defense deserves some credit as well as they've held opponents to just north of 62 points per game on a paltry 36% shooting at home this season. Stanford doesn't figure to pose much of a threat to those numbers as it averages just 22 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and South Florida at 9 pm et on Thursday. South Florida enters this game off four consecutive 'under' results while Memphis saw its most recent game stay 'under' the total despite scoring 80+ points in a rout of Wichita State. I look for another relatively low-scoring affair when the two teams meet up for their only regular season matchup on Thursday night. South Florida plays at an incredibly slow pace at home. For as poorly as things have gone for the Bulls at times this season, they have held opponents to just 61.3 points per game on 22-for-53 shooting on average here at home this season. The enter this game in fine form defensively, fresh off an upset win at Cincinnati, having held the opposition to just 20, 22, 16 and 19 made field goals over their last four games. Even with Memphis playing at a fairly fast pace lately, it has still managed to hold consecutive opponents to just 21 made field goals. Going back further, nine of the Tigers last 11 opponents have made good on 23 or fewer field goal attempts. Memphis itself has gotten off fewer than 60 FG attempts in four of its last five games. The only reason it was able to break 80 points last time out was because it shot the lights out (55% from the field). I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Kings v. Spurs OVER 240 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Kings loss in New Orleans last night. We also won with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a loss in Memphis on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the two teams meet up in San Antonio. Neither of these teams are playing a lick of defense right now. The Kings have allowed four of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, giving up 40 or more field goals in 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Spurs have been even worse. Their last three opponents have knocked down 59, 47 and 48 field goals, all shooting better than 53% from the field. Offensively, the Spurs continue to roll, having put up 105 points or more in seven straight games, eclipsing the 120-point mark in four of those contests. While the Kings have hit a bit of a lull and were held under 100 points last night, I don't think they'll need to be coerced into getting involved in a track meet here. Prior to last night's game, Sacramento had scored 110+ points in four consecutive games. While we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the two previous matchups between these two teams this season, I believe the adjustment is warranted. Note that the last time these two squared off in San Antonio, they combined to score 253 points back in November. Take the over (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons enter Thursday's game in Toronto riding a 4-0-1 'over' run. Going back a little further, the 'over' is 6-1-1 in their last eight contests. I'm not convinced the pace has been there to warrant such a run, however, and I expect the tide to turn on Thursday night. Note that none of Detroit's last six opponents have gotten off more than 89 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pistons have managed to shoot considerably better than their season average over their last three contests. I'm confident we'll see the Raptors defense step up and keep the Detroit offense in check here, noting that Toronto has limited eight of its last nine opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raps themselves have been playing at a fairly fast pace but I suspect they'll look to 'manage' proceedings a bit here, noting that this is the front half of a back-to-back, not to mention the middle of a stretch that will see them play seven games in 10 nights. Toronto has done a terrific job of limiting the oppositions scoring opportunities here at home this season, holding them to an average of 38-of-83 shooting, while giving up less than 106 points per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with Detroit coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average of only 212.6 total points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 29-9 with Toronto coming off two or more consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Suns are having a difficult time adjusting to life without Chris Paul, having dropped consecutive games at home against the Pelicans and Jazz. I am confident we'll see them 'get right' on Wednesday as they host a reeling Blazers squad, but I'm more comfortable playing the 'under' than I am laying the points. Note that Phoenix has allowed just 105.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (39-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 218.1 total points and a 14-25 o/u record. When coming off an 'over' result this season, we've seen the Suns give up just 104 points per contest, leading to an average total of 218.5 points (28-game sample size). The Blazers check in allowing 112.6 points per game on the season, but that number drops to 109.4 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, leading to an o/u record of 5-14 in that spot. This is a game the Suns will want to 'manage' as it tips off a stretch of five games in eight nights (in four different cities). Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, and with a number of key injuries including one to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have managed to score only 95 and 92 points in two games since the All-Star break. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and Arkansas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. While we're dealing with a lower posted total for this game than we did for that previous matchup, I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. LSU has done a nice job defensively over the last month or so but unfortunately its offense hasn't always lived up to its end of the bargain. The Tigers have held five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals while limiting five straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. It was actually their most recent opponent that got off those 56 attempts, that being Missouri in a game where it scored just 55 points on 20 made field goals. The Tigers are allowing just 24 made FG's per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Arkansas rolls into this matchup off four straight wins. While it did manage to come away victorious in both games, I'm not convinced it wants the pace up around where it was in its last two contests against Florida and Kentucky. Prior to allowing 26 and 30 made field goals in their last two games, the Razorbacks had held four of their previous five opponents to 24 made FG's or less, giving up 21 or less in three of those contests. The Hogs filled up the boxscore in their last two games but are also just two games removed from knocking down only 18 field goals in a very low-scoring game against Tennessee (106 total points). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with LSU coming off consecutive ATS wins this season and 11-3 with Arkansas having won six or seven of its last eight games ATS over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While this game is being priced as a potential track meet in the betting marketplace, I believe the total will prove too high. The Kings have been shooting the lights out lately but I'm not convinced it continues here. The pace hasn't necessarily been there but the Kings have seen three of their last four games go 'over' the total, despite the fact that they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all four of those games while also limiting their opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last three contests. The new-look Pelicans should pose a considerable challenge here. New Orleans has come out of the break holding the Suns and Lakers to 36-of-82 and 35-of-84 shooting, respectively, in posting consecutive wins. We'll see if their offensive surge will continue at home, where they average 109 points per game on 40 made field goals including only 11 made three-pointers per game here in the Big Easy this season. The Kings have limited the Pelicans to 109 and 99 points in two previous meetings this season. While the addition of C.J. McCollum has certainly provided a boost, I can see this as a big of a letdown spot for the home side, helping keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on Sunday in New York in a game that totalled 234 points. We're dealing with a higher posted total as a result for this one, but I don't believe the adjustment is warranted. Keep in mind, Sunday's game saw a whopping 79 free throw attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see a similar story unfold here, noting that the first two meetings between these two teams this season totalled only 211 and 199 points with no more than 32 free throw attempts in either contest. The 76ers average just 107.1 points per game when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here (19-game sample size). When playing at home following an 'over' result, that number drops to 104.3 points with an average total of just 207.3 points (12-game sample size). Finally, I'll point to the fact that the 'under' is 31-18 in the last 49 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232.5 | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw this same matchup two nights ago with the Magic cruising to a 119-103 victory over the Pacers, easily staying 'under' the total. That was a tough back-to-back spot for the Pacers. Here, I expect them to put up more of a fight and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. Indiana has now scored more than 100 points in eight straight games. The problem is it has also allowed 100+ points in all eight of those games, with those eight opponents all scoring 107 or more points. Interestingly, the Pacers have allowed a whopping 123.9 points per game in games where the total has been posted at 230 points or higher over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Magic have topped out at 119 points this season, reaching that number on three different occasions. They enter tonight's game having posted exactly 119 points in consecutive games - in other words, they're playing their best offensive basketball of the season. Like the Pacers, they've had trouble keeping the ball out of their own basket, however, allowing 103 points or more in six straight games. They've actually been worse defensively at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 112.0 points per game here in Orlando. We've certainly seen the Magic make a concerted effort to push the pace a little more than usual lately, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 40+ field goals in all four contests. The Pacers will certainly afford them plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that they've yielded 91, 101 (overtime), 91 and 96 FG attempts in their last four games. The 'over' checks in 13-3 over their last 16 contests. Take the over (6*). |
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03-02-22 | Duquesne v. George Washington -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on George Washington minus the points over Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team struggling as badly as Duquense right now. The Dukes haven't won a game since January 8th and check into Wednesday's clash with George Washington having made a grand total of 79 field goals over their last four games, scoring 55 points or less in all four of those contests. On the flip side, they're not really offering up any defensive resistance, having allowed 29, 31, 29 and 27 made field goals over that stretch, despite none of those games being played at all that quick of a pace (those four opponents topped out at 59 field goal attempts). George Washington got bogged down by as superior George Mason squad on the road last time out but has been playing well in the longer-term picture, having gone 9-2 ATS over its last 11 games. Credit the Colonials for limiting George Mason to just 21 made field goals in that 69-62 loss on Saturday. GWU has held three straight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. If it can do that here it should be able to win in a walk, noting that it yielded a whopping 76 FG attempts in its last matchup with Duquesne on February 16th but still gave up only 52 points in a 21-point win. Take George Washington (9*). |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and USC at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 135 points. Both teams are coming off 'under' results. Those two factors only serve to keep Tuesday's posted total in check. Both teams are giving up a ton of opportunities right now. Arizona has allowed 12 of its last 13 opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Its only opponent over that stretch that didn't top the 60 FG mark was Washington and that was a game that still reached 160 points. USC has allowed 60+ FG attempts in six straight games. The Trojans aren't likely to force the Wildcats into a slugfest here and even if they could, that type of contest likely wouldn't favor them anyway given that the first meeting between these two teams this season was relatively low-scoring and still went Arizona's way by nine points. USC does come in having knocked down 59 shots in its last two games. The Trojans have won six games in a row and haven't seen consecutive games stay 'under' the total since February 3rd and 5th. Take the over (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Bearcats were embarrassed by Houston 80-58 on their home floor back on February 6th. In fact, this series has been all Cougars lately as they've taken each of the last three meetings by 20+ points. I do expect Cincinnati to put up more of a fight on Tuesday but if it is going to accomplish that, it will need to tighten things up defensively. The good news is, the Bearcats have done a better job of keeping opposing offenses under wraps on the road than they have at home this season. Note that they allow just 23 made field goals including only five made threes per game on the road this season. Houston has of course been lights out defensively all season but particularly of late. The Cougars have limited opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 11 games. With the Bearcats having only managed to score 52, 54 and 58 points against them in their last three meetings there's a low probability that the Cougars suddenly get blitzed here. Note that Houston allows a ridiculously-low 18 made field goals including only six made threes per game here at home this season. Take the under (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockets took the Clippers down to the wire two nights ago, ultimately losing that game by a single point. While Houston has now lost nine consecutive games, it continues to do a nice job of controlling the tempo of the opposition, limiting four of its last five opponents to sub-90 field goal attempts. The problem is, the opposition has been making the most of those attempts, with 12 of its last 13 opponents shooting better than 50% from the field. The good news is, the Rockets limited the Clippers to 44% shooting on Sunday, giving them something to build off of here. Note that the Clips are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having allowed four straight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. I certainly expect to see Houston improve on its 38% shooting effort on Sunday. Los Angeles enters this game off of three consecutive wins but is just 5-14 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case here, and has actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 points in that spot. All told, the Clips are 14-18 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by 2.3 points per game. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington at 11 pm et on Monday. UCLA bounced back from a loss at Oregon to blast Oregon State by 39 points on Saturday. I look for the Bruins to build off of that incredible performance on Monday night in Washington. While UCLA isn't expected to have Johnny Juzang back for this game, that was certainly no obstacle on Saturday and I don't believe it will be tonight either. Washington is sagging defensively right now, having allowed 36, 30, 30, 27 and 24 made field goals, not to mention 60+ field goal attempts in nine straight games heading into Monday's contest. In stark contrast, UCLA has held each of its last seven opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts, allowing a grand total of only 96 made field goals over its last five games combined. Offensively, the Bruins are 'filling it up', knocking down 28 or more field goals in six of their last nine contests. This same matchup was no contest back on February 19th as the Bruins rolled to a 76-50 victory. Perhaps the Huskies can close the margin somewhat in this one, but not by enough to cover the very reasonable pointspread in my opinion. Take UCLA (6*). |
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02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over New Mexico at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State finally snapped a four-game losing streak with a 65-40 blowout victory over Air Force last time out. I look for the Bulldogs to build on that positive result with another lopsided victory on Monday against New Mexico. The Lobos snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a narrow victory over Air Force last Thursday. That came at home. The Lobos are just 2-10 on the road this season and have had little success in slowing opposing offenses, allowing 28 made field goals per game on better than 48% shooting. That's not to mention the fact that they're sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 23 times per contest on the road this season. On the flip side, Fresno State allows just 19-of-50 shooting here at home this season, including only six made three-pointers per game and 13 free throw attempts per contest. The Bulldogs have held each of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts so I don't envision New Mexico enjoying a ton of quality scoring opportunities in tonight's game. Fresno State took the first meeting between these two teams by five points back in late January. The Lobos had nine more field goal attempts than the Bulldogs in that game but I expect that script to flip in this one. Take Fresno State (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237.5 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a wild 133-129 loss in Miami on Saturday. It was obviously from the jump that Miami took a win for granted in that game with the Spurs missing a number of key contributors including Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. Here, I don't think the Spurs will be so fortunate. Go up and down the San Antonio lineup and you'll see that virtually the entire roster shot the lights out in that game on Saturday. It will face a different challenge here though, with the Grizzlies coming out of the break playing solid defense, limiting Minnesota and Chicago to a combined 82-for-186 (44%) shooting. Note that the Grizz have held the Spurs to 105 and 110 points in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, Memphis has scored fewer than 120 points in three straight games after eclipsing that mark in six consecutive games previously. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-5 with the Spurs playing on the road following an ATS win this season, leading to an average total of 218.7 points. Better still, the 'under' is 22-9 with San Antonio coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 216.4 points. The Spurs are coming off three straight 'over' results, matching their longest such streak of the season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-28-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat have now seen their last two games go 'over' the total and you would have to go back six games to find the last time they've held an opponent to under 100 points. Keep in mind, they've had only two stretches longer than five games without holding an opponent under the century mark on only two previous occasions this season. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for high-scoring affairs, but in Miami's most recent game, it shot better than 56% from the field while its opponent, San Antonio shot 55.6%. I don't expect that type of track meet to unfold here as the Heat will be looking to 'manage' proceedings before a back-to-back road set beginning on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. The Bulls are coming off one of their weaker offensive performances in weeks as they scored 110 points on 41.9% shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. This certainly isn't an ideal bounce-back spot noting they average right around 3.0 points less than their season average in terms of points per game on the road this season. Note that they've scored just 104 and 92 points in two previous meetings with Miami this season. Take the under (9*). |
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02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Month. My selection is on Fordham minus the points over UMass at 7 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for Fordham as it looks to bounce back from an ugly performance at Davidson on Saturday. The Rams knocked down only 12-of-49 field goals in that contest, unable to build off consecutive home victories in their previous two games. I do expect a much stronger effort here as they host a reeling UMass squad on Monday. The Minutemen have dropped back-to-back games by 21 and 15-point margins. Opponents have absolutely been 'filling it up' against the UMass defense, pouring in 28+ made field goals in five of its last six games. On the flip side, Fordham has given up fewer than 20 made field goals in three of its last five games. Even in Saturday's blowout loss at Davidson, the Rams still gave up just 22 made field goals. They've held four of their last five opponents to sub-38% shooting from the field. That's nothing new. Fordham allows an average of just 23 made field goals, including only six from beyond the arc, and sends opponents to the free throw line only 16 times per contest here at home this season. That's all key as any success the Minutemen has had this season has generally been on the strength of its three-point (10 made per game) and free-throw shooting (20 trips to the line per contest). Take Fordham (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227 | 124-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers blowout loss to the Warriors on Thursday night but we were somewhat fortunate to do so as Portland had a difficult time just getting shots off, let alone scoring, as it attempted just 78 field goals and shot below 40%. Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, not to mention the fact the Blazers are dealing with a number of key injuries, including one to Jusuf Nurkic, it's likely going to be a grind for them down the stretch. The Nuggets will be an unforgiving opponent on Sunday night. With that being said, Denver is playing its third game in four nights, in three different cities, and likely won't have much interest in a track meet here. The Nuggets didn't look to have the freshest legs last night as they knocked down just 38-of-82 (46.3%) of their field goal attempts against an awful Kings defense. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately, neither have been involved in what you would consider ultra fast-paced games lately. Nuggets opponents have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five games while the Blazers have limited the opposition to 90 or less FG attempts in six straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Take the under (6*). |
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02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Hornets have absolutely abused the Pistons defense in two previous meetings this season, scoring 140+ points in both games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Since giving up 141 points in a blowout loss at home against the Hornets on February 11th, the Pistons have held their last four opponents to 103, 111, 103 and 113 points. Their offense remains unreliable, noting that they've been held under 100 points three times over their last nine games and check in averaging just 101.2 points per game on the road this season. Worse still, they average just 100.6 points per contest when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Hornets went into the All-Star break losers of three games in a row but did respond with a 125-93 victory over the Raptors in their first game back on Friday. That marked the first time since January 21st they held an opponent to under 100 points and gives them something to build on heading into Sunday's game. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Hornets playing at home off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 215.2 points. The 'over' is 2-0-1 in the Pistons last three games overall but the pace really hasn't been there, noting that two of Detroit's last three opponents got off just 77 field goal attempts while Detroit attempted just 86 and 87 field goals in its last two contests. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season. Note that the 'under' is 21-12 with Detroit playing with double-revenge this season, resulting in an average total of just 212.1 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montana State and Montana at 5 pm et on Saturday. Montana enters this game on the heels of seven consecutive 'over' results. With that in mind, we're not seeing a major adjustment to the total compared to the first meeting between these two in-state rivals this season, despite that contest reaching just 125 total points (that game saw a closing total of 137.5). Montana has been a different team at home compared to on the road, absolutely locking down the opposition, allowing just 20 made field goals per game including only five from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies have scored 70+ points in three consecutive games entering Sunday's contest, that's been the exception rather than the rule as they eclipsed that mark in only seven of their previous 14 conference games this season. Montana State currently leads the Big Sky Conference with a 13-3 record and has certainly been 'filling it up' lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. It shot better than 50% from the field but still scored 'only' 66 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. In that game, the Bobcats only managed to get off 45 field goal attempts (they also got to the free throw line 19 times, two shy of their season average). Off consecutive losses and sinking in the Big Sky standings, I do expect Montana to put up a serious fight in this game, as the line would indicate and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Bakersfield and Hawaii at midnight et on Saturday. We saw CSUB's seven-game 'over' streak come to an end last time out as it was involved in a slugfest that totalled only 121 points against Cal-Poly. I expect more of the same as it heads to Hawaii on Saturday. Both of these teams have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. CSUB checks in allowing just 22 made field goals per game on the road this season. While opponents have gotten to the free throw line with consistency against them, Hawaii doesn't figure to be a team to take full advantage, noting that it averages only 17 trips to the charity stripe per game and got there only 12 times in the first meeting between these two this season (that game totalled only 122 points). Hawaii has really stepped it up defensively of late, limiting three of its last four opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals. It does send opponents to the free throw line 20 times per game here at home but again, CSUB doesn't figure to take advantage, noting that it gets to the line just 15 times per contest and shoots sub-70% from the stripe on the road this season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 236 | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Nets and Bucks on Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Nets are coming off yet another loss, this time in blowout fashion at home against the Celtics on Thursday. Boston barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that contest so I shudder at the thought of what the Bucks, who haven't played since the All-Star break, will be able to do on Saturday night. Incredible, seven of the Nets last nine opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. The good news is, they're back on the road, where they of course have the much-needed services of Kyrie Irving to at least attempt to keep pace. Note that Brooklyn is averaging 113.2 points per game on the road this season, nearly three points north of its season scoring average. While the Bucks should be able to score at will in this game, I question whether they'll be able to stop Brooklyn. Note that Milwaukee's opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, scoring 131, 122, 119 and 123 points over its last four games. In fact, the Bucks have given up 108+ points in seven straight games. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met back in January, the Nets were at home and didn't have Kyrie Irving. They still scored 109 points despite shooting a woeful 6-of-27 from beyond the arc. They average double that - 12 made threes per game - on the road this season. For their part, the Bucks have allowed 14 made three-pointers per contest here at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 226 | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in San Antonio's wild 157-153 double-overtime win in Washington last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Spurs continue their road trip in Miami on Saturday. The Heat played last night as well, securing a 115-100 win over the Knicks in New York. This is a game where Miami will be looking to 'manage' proceedings in my opinion as they have another game at home against Chicago on Monday before a back-to-back on the road in Milwaukee and Brooklyn on Wednesday and Thursday. In other words, I don't think the Heat have any interest in a track meet here. Note that Miami has done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding three of their last six opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Spurs coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of 212.2 points. The Heat took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 112-95 score on February 3rd and that's notable as the 'under' is 16-6 with the Spurs on the road seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 216.1 points. Take the under (8*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 155 points and as a result we're looking at a higher posted total for this rematch (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 145.5). I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. There was really nothing special about that first matchup as far as the performance of the two offenses goes. In fact, South Dakota actually knocked down only four three-pointers in the game - three less than its season average. The two teams also made just 20 free throws combined, less than their combined per game season average of 26. South Dakota enters this game off three consecutive 'under' results. I simply don't see this game being played at the same relatively slow pace that we saw in any of those three games. Note that Oral Roberts comes in having knocked down a whopping 69 field goals over its last two games. But it is also affording the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, allowing 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 4-2 clip over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over South Dakota State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog in this matchup between two red hot Summit League teams. South Dakota State has of course been the class of the conference all season, going undefeated to this point at 17-0. That includes a 32-point rout of Kansas City back on December 20th. Kansas City enters this game on a serious roll, however, having won eight consecutive games ATS. The Roos have done a tremendous job of locking down the opposition here at home, allowing just 21 made field goals per game on only 51 attempts. That includes just 5-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. South Dakota State obviously has the offense to test those numbers but also finds itself in a tough spot, playing on just one day of rest following a wild 106-102 road win at Oral Roberts on Thursday. While the Jackrabbits are certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, I like the fact that the Roos come in on a heater as well, having shot better than 51% from the field in five of their last eight games and averaging just shy of 80 points per game on 48% shooting at home this season. Kansas City's recent success hasn't come out of nowhere as it is actually 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games against Summit League opposition. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). |
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02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over San Diego at 5 pm et on Saturday. After hanging tough through the early stages of conference play, San Diego has 'let go of the rope' so to speak, dropping five of its last six games SU (0-5-1 ATS). Opponents have absolutely abused the Toreros defense of late, knocking down 30+ field goals in four of those last six games. Things certainly won't get any easier against a San Francisco squad that will be looking to get back on track after a tough loss against mighty Gonzaga two nights ago. While the Dons have been a little uneven of late, that's had more to do with a couple of tough matchups with the aforementioned Zags and St. Mary's than anything else. They've still managed to win by 16+ points in three of their last five contests. I fully expect to see San Francisco clamp down on the San Diego offense here, noting that it allows just 23 made field goals including only five per game from three-point range on the road this season. While the Toreros could elect to play a little faster than usual, that will only afford to the Dons more scoring opportunities, noting that they've put up 100+ points twice in their last five games. When these two teams last met in January, San Francisco led by 14 points at halftime before easing off the gas in the second half. I don't expect that same sort of story to unfold here as they look to 'get right' off Thursday's lopsided defeat. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
MAC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 2 pm et on Saturday. I love that we're catching a boatload of points in this quick rematch between these two MAC squads on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday as Northern Illinois at least held its own in a game that was reasonably competitive throughout (Buffalo eventually won by 11 points). The Huskies enter Saturday's game riding a five-game ATS winning streak but are still getting little respect from the oddsmakers. Buffalo, meanwhile, with its high-octane offense has become an overvalued commodity, dropping the cash in three consecutive games. While NIU is a poor 6-12 SU away from home this season, it has managed to post a solid 11-7 ATS mark. The Huskies have actually won outright as big underdogs in-conference at Kent State, Ball State and Akron with the latter two victories coming in the last two weeks. While the Huskies average only 22 made field goals per game including just six from beyond the arc on the road this season, they'll likely be afforded many more scoring opportunities than they're accustomed to here with Buffalo allowing opponents to get off 65 field goal attempts including 23 per game from three-point range here at home this season. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' recently I believe the extended All-Star break can serve as a 'catalyst for change' heading into Friday's showdown in Salt Lake City. While it's true the 'under' is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games overall, it has also scored 103+ points in 10 of its last 11 games, only failing to reach the century mark in a tough back half of a two-game set against the Clippers (we noted that was a poor spot for Dallas and successfully backed Los Angeles in a 99-97 victory). The 'under' is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games. It has scored over 100 points in nine straight games, boosted by the recent returns of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Jazz have also given up 100+ points in nine of their last 11 games, only holding an undermanned Warriors squad and the lowly Magic under that scoring mark over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with Utah playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 217.4 points. Mavs road games have totalled an average of 221.7 points over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans entered the break on the heels of consecutive losses against the Grizzlies and Mavericks. Things won't get any easier as they head to Phoenix to face the Suns on Friday. With that being said, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with New Orleans in this spot. Note that Phoenix is fresh off a blowout win in Oklahoma City last night. As I expected, we saw the Suns really force the issue offensively in that one, looking to erase any doubt of how they will perform in the absence of Chris Paul. Here, I think things might get a little tougher playing the second of back-to-backs against a Pelicans squad that can hold its own offensively, boosted by the pre-trade deadline acquisition of C.J. McCollum. Note that Phoenix checks in 3-12 ATS when playing at home after winning four or five of its last six games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by just 5.5 points on average in that spot (compared to 9.3 points overall at home this season). Additionally, when coming off an ATS cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons, the Suns have only managed to outscore their next opponent by an average margin of 1.2 points. The Pelicans check in having been outscored by just 0.4 points on average when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here (20-game sample size). Also note that the Pelicans have outscored opponents by 0.3 points on average when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, also the case here (41-game sample size). Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Arlington and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. While the first meeting between these two teams was played at a break-neck pace and ultimately got into the 170's, I don't expect anything of the sort in Friday's rematch. South Alabama is playing a completely different style of basketball now than it was back in that late-December meeting. The Jaguars have been slowing things down to a crawl and should be even more motivated to do so as they look to snap a two-game skid on Friday. They certainly don't want to get out and run with UTA, noting that it has had considerable success doing so lately, scoring 80+ points in recent wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock. When opponents have elected to slow Arlington down, they've found success, noting that UTA has scored just 49 and 53 points in consecutive losses entering Friday's contest. South Alabama has allowed more than 21 made field goals just once in its last six games and gives up less than 58 points per game at home this season. The Jaguars figure to be able to dictate the tempo as considerable home favorites in this one. Take the under (7*). |
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02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 223 | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Despite a pre-trade deadline fire sale of sorts, the Spurs went into the All-Star break having scored 109+ points in four straight games. The problem is, they also allowed 104 points or more in 14 consecutive games prior to the break. Meanwhile, the Wizards come out of the break after scoring 100+ points in six straight games. Like the Spurs, they haven't done a great job of defending their own basket, giving up 113+ points in four of their last six contests, only avoiding that fate against the likes of the Pistons and Nets (without all of their stars). Note that the Spurs check in averaging 112.0 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. Washington on the other hand has averaged 118.8 points per contest when coming off a double-digit win over the same time frame (20-game sample size). I expect to see both teams race up and down the floor with considerable success on Friday. Take the over (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Northern Illnois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Buffalo has been on a blistering scoring pace lately, scoring 80+ points in six consecutive games. I do think Northern Illinois has a shot at knocking the Bulls off balance a little bit here, noting that the Huskies have limited opponents to just 53 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. None of NIU's last four opponents have gotten off more than 54 field goal attempts but the problem is it has allowed its last two foes to shoot 52% and 59% from the field. The good news is, the last time the Huskies allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% they followed it up with a 64-58 win over Ball State in which they held the Cardinals to 35% shooting. Buffalo allowed 84 points against Miami-Ohio last time out, barely escaping with a two-point win. Note that the Bulls have given up just 64, 74, and 69 points in their last three conference games after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. NIU certainly isn't an imposing offensive threat here at home where it averages 25 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc, while getting to the free throw line 19 times and knocking down an average of 13 of those freebies. Take the under (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Celtics v. Nets +8 | 129-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While these two teams are at somewhat opposite ends of the spectrum given the current state of affairs for the Nets with Kevin Durant injured, Kyrie Irving unable to suit up in the state of New York and Ben Simmons still working his way back, I simply feel that the Celtics are being asked to lay too many points in this first game back out of the All-Star break. Here, we'll note that Boston is just 10-22 ATS when coming off four or five ATS wins over its last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that spot. That situation has come up 16 times previously this season, and the Celtics have been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 points. While the Nets are a woeful 4-12 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, they've actually managed to outscore opponents by 0.4 points on average in that situation. Note that they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.1 points on 40 previous occasions where they've come off four or five losses over their last six games over the last three seasons. Again, I simply feel the C's are laying a few too many in this spot. Take Brooklyn (8*). |