Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-15-23 | Arizona State v. Nevada OVER 133.5 | Top | 98-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Nevada at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Arizona State's most recent game as it bowed out of the Pac-12 Tournament at the hands of eventual champion Arizona last Friday. Keep in mind, we were working with a total set well into the 150's in that game. It still went 'over' the number we're dealing with in this 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday. The Sun Devils quietly started pushing the pace more in early February and never relented the rest of the way. They check in having hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in eight of their last 11 games. The only three times they didn't we still saw the 'over' cash at a 2-1 clip. While I've sung the praises of the Sun Devils defense at times this season, the opposition has displayed a fairly solid 'floor' noting that Arizona State has yielded more than 20 made field goals in 18 of its last 20 games. The only team that failed to eclipse that number over that stretch was Oregon State - one of the weakest offensive teams in the country (278th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom). Nevada hasn't really shown the ability to dictate its oppnents' pace, as evidenced by its last two games in which it allowed UNLV and San Jose State to get off 72 and 65 field goal attempts, respectively. The Wolfpack have certainly faced their share of tough defenses this season - the 66th toughest slate of opponents in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in fact (again according to KenPom) - but made out just fine, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. There have been plenty of impressive performances along the way, including scoring 87 points against Kansas State, 75 points against San Diego State and 85 points against Utah State. Speaking of 'floors', you would have to go back 25 games to find the last time Nevada was held to fewer than 60 points (I do realize they'll likely need to get well past that number to help this total along). Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-23 | Kings v. Bulls OVER 238.5 | 117-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The only previous matchup between these two teams this season totalled only 211 points and that's helping to keep the number in check in Wednesday's rematch in Chicago. Both of these teams come in red hot offensively. The Kings have made good on 43 or more field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 40+ in all 10 of those contests. Meanwhile, the Bulls have been heating up, knocking down 45, 46 and 44 field goals over their last three games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all three contests. The Kings are coming off a home loss to the Bucks on Monday and that's notable as they've scored 140, 133, 133 and 134 points in their last four games following a loss. The Bulls average 113.2 points per game this season but that scoring average bumps up to 115.0 points per game when coming off a win, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
03-14-23 | Nets v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | Top | 107-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met the Thunder secured a 112-102 road win back on January 15th. Keep in mind, the Nets were a much different team then with Kyrie Irving in the lineup and Kevin Durant still on the shelf pre-trade. Brooklyn has certainly been re-energized since dealing away Kyrie and K.D. The Nets check into this contest on the heels of five straight ATS victories including consecutive 'over' results. While they got off only 84 field goal attempts against a good Nuggets defense on Sunday, they still managed to knock down 40+ field goals for the fourth straight game. It's worth noting that they haven't been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in consecutive games since late February. As much as head coach Jacque Vaughn would like his team to play tougher defense, I'm not sure they have the personnel in place to do so. Note that Brooklyn has allowed 44, 48 and 45 made field goals over its last three games (one of those games was aided by overtime) with all three of those opponents hoisting up 90+ FG attempts. The Thunder didn't have their best shooting performance on Sunday in San Antonio but still had enough to get by the lowly Spurs. The good news for our purposes was that the Thunder did continue to push the pace, getting off 95 FG attempts in the victory. They've hoisted up at least 87 FG attempts in seven of their last eight and 11 of their last 13 contests. While we did see Oklahoma City hold its last two opponents to 34 and 33 made field goals, that was against the Pelicans and Spurs, respectively. It will be taking a step up in class against the fifth-in-the-East Nets on Tuesday. While the scoring wasn't necessarily there in that most recent matchup between these two teams, we did see each side get off 90 or more FG attempts. I think the pace will be there again on Tuesday and with both teams coming off an off day, their shooting legs should be firmly beneath them as well. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-23 | Toledo v. Michigan -6 | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Bettors seem eager to fade Michigan in its NIT opener, probably feeling that it will be disinterested after getting 'snubbed' by the NCAA Tournament committee. This Wolverines team wasn't likely to go deep in the NCAA Tournament anyway, and I think the players know that. A high ranking in the NIT does give the Wolverines and opportunity to keep playing and building for next season (keep in mind Michigan returned only one starter this season). I like the draw here in the opening matchup. Toledo doesn't play a lick of defense. The Rockets rank a woeful 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the 213th most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). Yes, Toledo can score, or it could against MAC foes anyway. The Rockets only faced the 199th toughest slate of non-conference opponents (and didn't go against a single opponent from the Power-5 conferences) so it's difficult to gauge how they'll fare in this step-up spot. On the heels of three straight losses, I think we see Michigan's best effort here as I'm willing to bet on head coach Juwan Howard's ability to get his players up for this NIT opener. Note that while Toledo has only lost seven games this season, each of those seven defeats came by at least seven points and five of them came by double-digit margins. Take Michigan (8*). |
|||||||
03-13-23 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 237.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Suns dropped a high-scoring 128-119 decision at home against the Kings on Saturday but still check in having held an incredible 10 straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They've been red hot (no pun intended) shooting the ball themselves but will be in tough with Kevin Durant sidelined (given all the key pieces they dealt away to acquire him). The Warriors continue to scuff their heels offensively, shooting worse than 44% as a team in three of their last four games. Their most recent contest did end up touching the total, but only thanks to overtime against Milwaukee on Saturday. Here, we'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting, noting that the 'over' has cashed in all three meetings in this series this season but we haven't seen four straight matchups go 'over' the total since way back in 2008-09. The 'under' checks in 34-18 with Phoenix coming off a loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 218.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-23 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 228 | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with this same play on Saturday as the two teams got off to a red hot start and that was enough to ultimately push the final score 'over' the total by a little more than a handful of points. The injury situation has only gotten worse for both squads since then with Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley going down in that contest as well. Keep in mind, the Pacers are already missing the likes of Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Benedict Mathurin among others. Detroit is without Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic. Credit the subs for stepping up and filling the void on Saturday but I'm willing to bet they don't do it again here. Note that the Pistons will play again tomorrow night in Washington so they likely have an interest in shortening proceedings as much as possible on Monday, given the limited number of bodies they have on hand. The 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series which is worth noting as we haven't seen four consecutive 'over' results in this matchup since way back in 2013-14. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-12-23 | Knicks +2.5 v. Lakers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks may be missing Jalen Brunson but there's still no reason for their offense to go in the tank the way it has over the last few games. Off a dreadful performance on this same court against the Clippers yesterday, I look for them to rebound on Sunday night against the Lakers. Los Angeles is coming off a win over Toronto on Friday night. That had more to do with the Raptors inability to lay the hammer down than anything else. Toronto had a number of opportunities to take full control of that contest but simply failed to do so. Off three straight losses, I expect the Knicks to play inspired basketball as they look to at least give themselves a shot at splitting this four-game road trip. Note that New York is 20-14 on the road this season, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 points. It also checks in an impressive 24-10 ATS when playing the second night of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by 5.1 points on average in that spot. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have gotten back to a slower pace yet do check in having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. Last time out, that had everything to do with the visiting Blazers quite simply shooting the lights out (they actually got off only 80 field goal attempts). Philadelphia has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight games. The Sixers have also limited the opposition to 86 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The Wizards have gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six games. The only time they surpassed that number they lost 117-111 to the Bucks - with that game still failing to surpass the total we're working with tonight. Off consecutive losses, I do think we see the Wiz play some defense here, noting that they've allowed more than 117 points just once in their last 11 contests. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-23 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -4 | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Texas A&M at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's payback time as the Crimson Tide look to avenge last week's 67-61 loss at Texas A&M with much higher stakes in Sunday's SEC Championship Game. I'm not convinced the Aggies can afford themselves enough scoring opportunities to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that in last week's victory over the Tide, the Aggies actually knocked down only 18 field goals. The difference was their 28 trips to the free throw line (they made 27 of those attempts). Alabama had an off shooting day, including a woeful 7-of-36 from beyond the arc. Don't count on lightning striking twice here. While the Tide are known for their offensive prowess, their defense has been even better. In fact, Alabama checks in ranked third in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. That's not to mention the fact that they play at the country's fourth fastest tempo (also according to KenPom). Look for 'Bama to overwhelm Texas A&M in all facets on Sunday. Take Alabama (8*). |
|||||||
03-12-23 | Princeton v. Yale UNDER 140.5 | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Princeton and Yale at 12 noon et on Sunday. It's not easy to speed up this Yale team. Cornell found that out yesterday as the Bulldogs slowed things down a number of times when the pace was getting frenetic and perhaps starting to favor the Big Red. While Yale ultimately scored 80 points in the win, that had more to do with Cornell's defensive inefficiency than anything else (not to mention the fact that Yale knocked down 10 threes - it averages only seven per game on the season). Yale ranks 232nd in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and I'm confident we'll see it employ a 'grind-it-out' style again on Sunday against Princeton, which is coming off a 77-70 win over Penn yesterday. The Tigers are a middle of the road team when it comes to pace. I do think it would be in their best interest to 'ugly it up' a little bit in this one after dropping both regular season meetings with Yale, allowing 87 and 93 points in the process. While both of those contests went 'over' the total, we haven't seen three straight meetings in this series go 'over' since 2017-18. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-11-23 | Grand Canyon v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Utah over Grand Canyon at 11:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams pulled off minor upsets in the semi-final round of the WAC Tournament yesterday. I'll back the revenge-minded Thunderbirds of Southern Utah on Saturday as they look to get back at the Antelopes after dropping an 83-78 decision in the two teams' last matchup just over a week ago. This game features a true contrast in styles as Southern Utah looks to push the pace at every opportunity, ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. By the same metric, Grand Canyon sits 291st. While that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Antelopes, they haven't really been able to impose their will on any of their opponents this month, save for perhaps lowly Utah Tech in a double-digit win on March 3rd. Since that defeat at the hands of Grand Canyon, we've seen Southern Utah knock down 29, 27 and 30 field goals in notching three straight victories. Interestingly, it's not the Thunderbirds that have been more vulnerable defensively, despite playing at such a fast pace. The Antelopes actually rank a disappointing 210th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Southern Utah checks in 149th despite facing a marginally tougher schedule. I simply feel that last week's result between these two teams is weighing far too heavily given how little most have paid attention to the WAC in general this season. Take Southern Utah (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-23 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 229 | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. This was already going to be an ugly Saturday night matchup in the Motor City but with super rookies Benedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey sidelined it sets up that much worse. The Pacers are coming off a wild overtime win over the Rockets two nights ago. The 'over' has now cashed in each of their last three games, helping to keep tonight's posted total in a lofty range. The Pistons have struggled to score lately (by today's NBA standards at least), putting up fewer than 110 points in all but two of their last nine contests. While the defense-optional Pacers would appear to offer a reprieve, the Pistons are simply missing too many key contributors to be counted on for an offensive explosion here. Indiana has its own absences to deal with. Mathurin has already been ruled out while Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are all nursing injuries and currently listed as questionable to play. Even if all three are able to go, there's no guarantee they'll see their usual workload, especially if the game is well in control. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-11-23 | Texas v. Kansas -1 | 76-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Texas at 6 pm et on Saturday. There's very little separating these two Big 12 rivals and it's fitting that they'll meet in Saturday's Conference Championship Game. In fact, there's less than a point between the two teams according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin metric with only one spot separating them in the overall rankings. I simply feel that the Jayhawks are the superior defensive team and the fact is they've faced the toughest schedule in the entire country this season (also according to KenPom). We actually won with Texas in this same matchup last Saturday as the Longhorns exacted their revenge for an earlier loss to Kansas this season. That game was played in Austin. This one takes place in Kansas City. I expect the Jayhawks to roll. Take Kansas (8*). |
|||||||
03-11-23 | Missouri v. Alabama UNDER 157.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Missouri and Alabama at 1 pm et on Saturday. Alabama enters this contest off consecutive 'under' results and I'm confident we'll see a third straight on Saturday as this total has simply been set too high. Missouri stunned Tennessee on a scorching-hot shooting performance yesterday, notching its fifth straight victory. While the Tigers offense impressed, I'm not sure they'll be interested in trading blows with the Crimson Tide here, noting that Alabama barely broke a sweat in an 85-64 win in the lone regular season meeting. Interestingly, Missouri has found a way to slow down the opposition lately, allowing 56 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in six straight games entering Saturday's affair. Alabama had to lean on its own defense yesterday as its shooting touch just wasn't there against Mississippi State (the Tide knocked down 27-of-67 FG attempts). I'm anticipating a scrappier affair than most in this semi-final showdown on Saturday in Nashville. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-11-23 | Cornell v. Yale OVER 149 | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Yale at 11 am et on Saturday. These two teams just met on February 25th as Yale rolled to a 76-58 victory with that contest easily cruising 'under' the total, which closed in the low-150's. We're working with a lower posted total this time around but I'm not convinced the shift is warranted. Note that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total since all the way back in 2015-16. Cornell has been reeling to be sure but its slate is clean now as it needs two victories to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament. I certainly don't expect the Big Red, who rank 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, to go down without a fight. While Yale does rank an impressive 62nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, it has also only faced the 236th toughest slate of offensive opponents (based on average adjusted offensive efficiency). While we can sometimes project a sleepy start in these morning tipoff games, I don't think that will be the case here with both squads raring to go following a full week off. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 154.5 | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Arizona at 11:30 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in one of the best games of the entire college basketball season on February 25th as Arizona State pulled off a stunning 89-88 upset win on a half-court, buzzer-beating heave. It's easy to forget that the first meeting of the season was a rather ho-hum 69-60 Arizona victory. It's notable that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this in-state rivalry go 'over' the total since way back in 2016-17. It may surprise you to find out that Arizona State actually ranks an impressive 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the nation's 44th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While the Sun Devils were unconscious from the field against Arizona on February 25th, we can chalk that up as an anomaly as they've made good on just 21, 19, 23 and 23 field goals in four games since (they connected on 36 in the upset win over the Wildcats). We certainly haven't seen Arizona's best defensive basketball lately as it has allowed 24, 36, 26, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. I do think it catches Arizona State at the right time, however, and it's not as if the Wildcats have been down bad defensively all season as they still rank 55th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (including the 80th toughest slate of non-conference opponents). Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Raptors +1 v. Lakers | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This is a big spot for the Raptors who were fuming (feeling wronged by the officials) following Wednesday's loss on this same court against the Clippers. Toronto hasn't played all that poorly but is just 1-3 on its current road trip. We were actually on the Raptors in their lone victory - an overtime win in Washington last Saturday. I like the fact that Toronto has gotten back to its preferred style of basketball at the very least, holding six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raptors last contest marked the first time in four games that they didn't make good on at least 41 field goals. The Lakers are undoubtedly playing well but have also caught some favorable matchups lately, facing the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a reeling Warriors squad and a Grizzlies team missing Ja Morant among others. Here, they get the Raps at virtually full strength. Note that Los Angeles is just 13-26 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Raptors are a long-term 163-126 ATS when playing on the road off two or more losses in a row. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Oregon +6.5 v. UCLA | 56-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon plus the points over UCLA at 9 pm et on Friday. UCLA faced some resistance but ultimately got past Colorado by double-digits in a win and ATS cover yesterday. I can't help but feel that Oregon is essentially Colorado 'on steroids' this season and the Ducks will certainly enter this contest with a chip on their collective shoulder after dropping both regular season meetings with the Bruins. Oregon wasn't able to generate enough scoring opportunities to get over the hump in the two regular season matchups with UCLA. It is worth noting that Bruins guard Jaylen Clark proved to be a handful for the Ducks in those two contests, scoring 27 points while adding seven rebounds not to mention getting to the free throw line 14 times. He of course won't play in this game as he recovers from an achilles injury. I think a lot of bettors are sleeping on the Ducks, noting that they check in ranked 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 23rd most difficult schedule (all according to KenPom). Oregon was certainly battle-tested early on as it went up against the 28th toughest slate of non-conference opponents (by comparison UCLA faced only the 148th most difficult). Of course UCLA is the superior team in this matchup but that's been baked into the pointspread. As we see year in, year out, the best team doesn't always end up on top in these conference tournaments and the Pac-12 has been no different (remember Oregon State?). Having won four games in a row, allowing just 22, 19, 25 and 23 made field goals over that stretch, I'm confident the Ducks can hang with the Bruins for 40 minutes on Friday. Take Oregon (8*). |
|||||||
03-10-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 130.5 | Top | 83-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Fullerton and Cal-Irvine at 9 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs on Thursday and I expect more of the same as they match up for the third time this season on Friday. The two regular season matchups were a bit of a mixed bag with the first totalling 135 points and the second reaching only 123 points. Fullerton has been an upstart this season, going an incredible 19-8 ATS in lined contests on the strength of a defense that ranks 81st in the country in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). The Titans are certainly capable of 'grinding it out', checking in 317th out of 363 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Cal-Irvine is right there defensively as well, ranking 75th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, albeit playing at a considerably faster pace. The Anteaters have been particularly locked-in on defense lately, allowing 24 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Fullerton has impressively limited five of its last seven foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a team got off more than 56 field goal attempts and that contest still totalled 'only' 128 points back in January of last year. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Blazers v. 76ers -8.5 | 119-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While they have managed to scrap their way to two wins in their last three games, the Blazers are not playing inspiring basketball right now. They've had a tough enough time just getting shots off, hoisting up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. They've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six contests. That's a recipe for disaster for a team that has allowed an incredible 28 straight opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals with 18 of those making good on 43 or more. The 76ers enter this game playing some of their best offensive basketball of the season after making good on 40 or more field goals in five straight games. They've also held 11 of their last 14 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Last time out, in what should have been a bad spot playing the second night of back-to-backs off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers, they held the Timberwolves to 34-of-86 shooting in a 23-point rout, on the road as three-point underdogs no less. We'll note that Portland is just 13-24 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here after the Sixers won by 10 in Portland back in January, outscored by an average margin of 9.6 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 137.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
SEC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in an anomaly of a high-scoring affair in their first meeting this season as that contest totalled 151 points with Texas A&M getting off an otherworldly (by the Aggies own standards) 76 field goal attempts in a double-digit loss. The rematch proved far more 'normal', reaching only 118 points in a tightly-contested A&M home victory. I'm anticipating something in between here but do feel the total will prove too high. Arkansas has seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six games as a number of its recent opponents have quite simply shot the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring affairs, noting yesterday's game in particular where the Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers combined to hoist up only 101 field goal attempts yet we saw 149 total points scored. All told, the Hogs have limited seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and I'm confident they'll do the same here, noting that Texas A&M ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) and has gotten off 54 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. In fact, the Aggies have been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four of their last six games yet here we find them in a pk'em price range against Arkansas. That lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair in my opinion, noting that the Aggies have been nothing but consistent defensively, holding an incredible seven straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals, including the Razorbacks (to 22) on February 15th. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 235.5 | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're seeing a considerable adjustment to the total in this game since the most recent meeting between these two teams on January 25th. That game totalled 242 points, staying just 'under' the closing total of 245.5. We're working with a total around 10 points lower (at the time of writing) for this rematch, largely due to the absence of Ja Morant for the Grizzlies. I don't believe that big of a shift is warranted. To say the Warriors have been a bad defensive team away from home this season would be an understatement. They've allowed a whopping 123.6 points per game on north of 49% shooting. You would have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time they held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals on the road and even further to December 16th to spot the last time they limited a foe to fewer than 40. Defensive warts aside, Golden State should be 'feeling it' offensively in this one after knocking down 47-of-89 field goal attempts in Tuesday's 137-128 loss in Oklahoma City. After holding four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals, the Grizzlies have now yielded 40, 45 and 41 made field goals over their last three contests. Offensively, it doesn't get much worse than Memphis' 36-of-93 shooting performance against the Lakers last time out. Keep in mind, the Grizzlies are just one game removed from a 50-of-92 shooting effort against the Clippers. The short line says a lot here as despite the short-handed nature of the Grizzlies, a competitive affair should be in order. That lends itself to a high-scoring contest in my opinion. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Tulsa v. Wichita State OVER 139 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Wichita State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both regular season meetings between these two teams surpassed the total we're dealing with on Thursday and I believe the number will prove too low once again. Tulsa enters this game on an 11-game losing streak, not to mention a four-game 'under' streak. The Golden Hurricane offense went in the tank down the stretch but I do think this is a favorable matchup, noting that Tulsa has hung relatively tough with Wichita State in all five meetings going back to the start of 2022, with the largest margin of defeat over that stretch being 11 points. The Golden Hurricane knocked down 27 and 25 field goals in this year's two matchups, scoring 69 and 75 points. The problem here is that Tulsa doesn't match up particularly well defensively. Wichita State has made good on 24 or more field goals in 10 of its last 11 games and faces a Tulsa defense that has yielded 25 or more made field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 21 games. I don't think the Golden Hurricane will shy away from an up-tempo affair here though, noting that they rank 146th in the country this season in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) despite facing the 95th most difficult schedule. The Shockers stepped up with a dominant defensive effort against South Florida last time out but that might have just been an off shooting night for the Bulls as they still got off 58 field goal attempts. Prior to that, Wichita State had allowed at least 23 made field goals in 16 straight games, yielding 27 or more on eight occasions over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 133 | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and UCLA at 3 pm et on Thursday. Colorado exploded in the second half against Washington yesterday, scoring 46 points on its way to a 74-68 win. Keep in mind, the Buffaloes M.O. this season has been their defense, ranking 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). I certainly expect to see the pace slow down in today's matchup (Colorado got off 66 field goal attempts in yesterday's win), noting that favored UCLA ranks 223rd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season and should be able to control proceedings much like it did during the lone regular season matchup between these two teams (the Bruins won that game 60-56 on February 26th). For UCLA, it has its sights set on a tournament championship, but also on much loftier goals starting next week. I'm not expecting a peak performance from the Bruins offense here, noting that even in an anomaly of a game that saw them hoist up 67 field goal attempts against up-tempo Arizona last time out, they still knocked down 'only' 28 field goals. Colorado enters this contest having held three straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, including that aforementioned matchup with UCLA in which it yielded 22. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Pittsburgh v. Duke UNDER 142 | 69-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Duke at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. While Pittsburgh is coming off a wild 89-81 win over Georgia Tech yesterday I think it knows that it is unlikely to enjoy similar success by employing that same style of play against Duke on Thursday. Case in point, the first regular season matchup between these two teams as the Panthers got off to a red hot start but ultimately gave the Blue Devils far too many scoring opportunities (66 field goal attempts) and paid the price in a 77-69 road loss in January. While Pitt has regularly gotten into the 70's, 80's and even 90's in terms of scoring this season, it's worth noting that it has only faced the 102nd most difficult schedule in the country - a relatively low rating for a team from a major conference. Here, it will be facing a Duke squad that checks in 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 292nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). The Blue Devils have faced the nation's 72nd toughest slate of opponents. Another team with loftier goals beginning next week, but also with its sights firmly set on an ACC Tournament title, I'm not convinced we see Duke come out with a peak offensive performance in its opener in Greensboro. Both teams should have an interest in effectively shortening proceedings here, albeit for different reasons, and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Oregon State +10 v. Arizona State | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona State at 11:30 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with Oregon State on Saturday as the Beavers won but failed to cover the spread against lowly California. While that was a rather uninspiring performance from OSU I do think it's well positioned to get back in the win column from an ATS perspective as it catches a generous helping of points against Arizona State in the first round Pac-12 Tournament action. Note that this will be the third matchup between these two teams this season. The Sun Devils took the first two but neither game was a blowout as they won by five and 11 points. Arizona State actually got off only 49 and 47 field goal attempts in those two contests, making good on a combined 46 of them. The difference was that ASU set up shop at the free throw line, getting there 27 and 26 times. I certainly don't expect a repeat of that here, noting that the Sun Devils average only 18 trips to the charity stripe per game this season. We know Oregon State is capable of slowing this game to a crawl, effectively shortening proceedings which is what we want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Note that the Beavers have held seven straight opponents to 58 or fewer FG attempts, allowing more than 25 made field goals just twice over that stretch. While Arizona State does rate well defensively, I do think Oregon State can find some success offensively, noting that the Sun Devils have allowed an incredible 21 straight opponents to knock down at least 20 field goals (that's not a lofty number by any means but can work as a reasonable floor for the Beavers here). In stark contrast, Oregon State has held three of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals. Take Oregon State (10*). |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 234 | 101-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Thunder have posted a 6-0-1 o/u mark over their last seven games but I look for that run to come to an end on Wednesday as they face the Suns in a difficult back-to-back spot. I'm not sure any team is as locked-in defensively as Phoenix right now. The Suns have held nine of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While the Thunder are playing well, winners of three games in a row while scoring 130, 129 and 137 points over that stretch, the fact that they're in a back-to-back and three-in-four situation on the road has to be factored in (their last three wins came at home). The last time we saw Oklahoma City on the road it was held to 41-of-94 shooting right here in Phoenix (also in a back-to-back spot). That previous meeting did end up totalling 239 points, however, helping keep this total in a lofty region. I mentioned the Thunder's red hot offense but their defense has stepped up to a certain extent as well, limiting six straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The addition of Kevin Durant hasn't necessarily served to speed up the Suns offense, noting that they're hoisted up 89, 84 and 89 FG attempts in his first three games. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Cavs -2.5 v. Heat | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavs nearly got caught overlooking the undermanned Celtics who were in a back-to-back spot and resting a number of players on Monday in Cleveland. While the Cavs did ultimately win that game in overtime, they didn't cover the spread. That brought an end to their three-game ATS winning streak but I look for them to start a new one on Wednesday in Miami. The Heat wrapped up a two-game sweep of the Hawks at home two nights ago. We actually cashed with Atlanta in that game but were fortunate to do so thanks to a 'meaningless' buzzer-beater from the Hawks. Atlanta had that game in control before coughing it up in the fourth quarter, due in large part to its defensive ineptitude. The Cavs should offer a 'shock to the system' to the Heat in that regard, noting that they've held four straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Miami isn't playing at a pace that would appear to challenge that Cavs run, noting that the Heat have hoisted up 83 or fewer FG attempts in six straight games, making good on 42 or less in 12 consecutive contests. Contrast that with Cleveland, which enters on a streak of eight straight and 15 of its last 16 having knocked down 40 or more field goals. The last time these two teams met in late January the Heat prevailed as a four-point road underdog. Look for the revenge-minded Cavs to answer back here. Take Cleveland (8*). |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse OVER 153 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Wednesday. This will be the second meeting in less than a week between these two ACC schools after Saturday's contest went Syracuse's way by a score of 72-63. That relatively low-scoring result has afforded us a lower posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday but neither team was able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. Still, Syracuse has now allowed four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts while Wake Forest has yielded 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons have struggled to adjust to life without Damari Monsanto after he went down with an injury on February 22nd. I do think facing the same opponent in succession will help their cause here, however, noting that they're favored for a reason in this game. They'll certainly need to pick up the scoring pace here as they can't expect Syracuse to shoot a woeful 2-of-14 from three-point range the way it did on Saturday (the fact that it still scored 72 points was impressive). Note that Wake does check in 63rd in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-07-23 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 232.5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results - in fact, the Jazz have seen their last two games go 'over' the total while the Mavericks have posted three consecutive 'overs'. I expect those streaks to end here. After another tough loss - this one coming at the hands of the Suns on Sunday - the Mavs know they can't keep playing the way they have been, and by that I mean getting involved in repeated track meets. It's not the pace they're comfortable playing at and it just doesn't give them the best chance to win on most nights, despite the wealth of offensive talent they possess. Here, I think Dallas catches a bit of a break as Utah hasn't been on point offensively, topping out at 43 made field goals in seven straight games (it reached that number three times over that stretch). You have to figure the Jazz will be looking to tighten things up defensively here as well after allowing 130 and 129 points in consecutive losses in Oklahoma City. While the most recent meeting between these two teams in early February did snap a five-game 'under' streak in this series, it only got there thanks to 50 made free throws (the two teams average a combined 39 made free throws per game this season). Only once in the last 11 meetings have we seen either team knock down more than 41 field goals and that came in a contest that totalled only 203 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-07-23 | Georgia Tech -1.5 v. Florida State | 61-60 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Tech minus the points over Florida State at 2 pm et on Tuesday. While few have been paying much attention, Georgia Tech enters the ACC Tournament playing its best basketball of the season, having won eight straight games ATS. It hasn't been by smoke and mirrors either. The Yellow Jackets have climbed to 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while facing the 82nd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While their overall offensive numbers still lag, we've certainly seen a positive turnaround down the stretch. Georgia Tech has knocked down 26 or more field goals in nine straight games entering Tuesday's contest. In stark contrast, Florida State has reached that number just twice in its last six games. Also note that the Seminoles rank a miserable 244th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and have allowed at least 27 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests overall. The Noles got the better of the Yellow Jackets in the two teams' lone regular season matchup but I expect a different result on Tuesday. Take Georgia Tech (8*). |
|||||||
03-06-23 | Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 147.5 | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after Wisconsin-Milwaukee posted a rare 'under' result in its quarter-final matchup with Wright State. Monday's opponent, Cleveland State, has been a completely different team over the last month, hoisting up 60 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. Keep in mind, this is a team that still checks in 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The Panthers on the other hand rank 17th in the nation in that category. Note that Milwaukee checks in just 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing just the 289th most difficult schedule in the country. I think the Panthers were fortunate to allow 'only' 72 and 70 points in their last two games despite yielding 74 and 68 FG attempts. Cleveland State figures to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive warts, noting that the Vikings have knocked down 26 or more field goals in six straight games and 28+ in five of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-06-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Heat | 128-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Heat after they delivered a 117-109 win in the front half of this two-game set against the Hawks. We haven't seen Miami post consecutive ATS victories since January 6th and 8th, going an ugly 7-16-1 ATS since. The Heat have done a nice job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities lately but I expect the Hawks to get loose here, noting that they had knocked down at least 40 field goals in eight straight and 14 of their last 15 games prior to Saturday's defeat. While Atlanta is just 14-19 on the road this season, it has been a 'tough out', outscored by an average margin of only 1.9 points per contest. Meanwhile, the Heat are 20-12 on their home floor but have only managed to outscore the opposition by 0.8 points per game on average. Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
03-05-23 | Knicks v. Celtics -5.5 | 131-129 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Celtics to rebound off their embarrassing loss at home against the Nets on Friday - in a game they led by 28 points at one point. Meanwhile, the Celtics are coming off a last-second victory over the Heat in Miami on Friday. Here, we find the C's in a quick revenge spot after getting drilled 109-94 in New York on February 27th. In fact, it's a double-revenge spot as the Knicks also won 120-117 here in Boston back on January 26th. We'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 18-6 ATS when coming off an outright loss to a division opponent as six points or more, as is the case here. They're also 89-61 ATS when coming off a double-digit home loss. Take Boston (8*). |
|||||||
03-05-23 | Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 143.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Indiana at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the 'over' streaks for both of these teams on Sunday afternoon as Michigan enters on the heels of consecutive 'over' results while Indiana has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think Michigan wants to get involved in another track meet here after allowing 70 field goal attempts in each of its last two contests. Prior to that, the Wolverines had held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Despite their recent run of 'over' results, the Hoosiers have still made good on 25 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. Indiana continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 58 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. We've seen a slight adjustment to the total for this rematch but I don't believe it will be enough. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-23 | California v. Oregon State -6.5 | 66-69 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday. After a no-show against Stanford on Thursday I look for Oregon State to bounce back and lay waste to a reeling California squad in its regular season finale in Corvallis on Saturday. Cal is coming off another ugly loss, this time at the hands of Oregon, by a score of 84-51 on Thursday. The Beavers weren't much better, dropping an 83-60 decision against the Cardinal. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Oregon State in its home finale as it looks to snap a four-game losing streak, noting that it has already defeated Cal by 20 points once this season, on the road no less. Take Oregon State (8*). |
|||||||
03-04-23 | Raptors -1 v. Wizards | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Washington at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors haven't lost consecutive games since January 30th and February 1st and I look for them to avoid that fate in the second half of this two-game set against the Wizards on Saturday. Note that Washington is just 11-22 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons. The Wizards are also a long-term 183-233 ATS when coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. The Raptors had their opportunities on Thursday night but simply couldn't take advantage, connecting on only 41-of-92 field goal attempts. They did hold Washington to just 84 field goal attempts - the third straight game in which they limited the opposition to that number or less. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-23 | Kansas v. Texas -2 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. Kansas is red hot having won seven straight games. It hasn't looked particularly impressive in its last two victories, however, failing to cover the spread on both occasions. Here, I expect the Jayhawks to have their win streak stopped by a Texas team determined to end its two-game skid to close out the regular season at home. This is a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well after they dropped a spirited 88-80 affair in Lawrence back on February 6th. Note that Texas has lost just once at home this season, that coming in a wild 116-103 setback against Kansas State in January. The Longhorns current two-game slide is their longest such streak of the season. I don't like the fact that Kansas has given up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games entering this contest, opening the door for a Texas offense that has knocked down 25 or more field goals in four straight games and figures to bounce back after making good on only 25-of-64 FG attempts in a narrow two-point loss at TCU last time out. Take Texas (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-23 | Iowa State v. Baylor UNDER 136.5 | 73-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa State and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season did sail 'over' the total but we're working with a higher number this time around and I believe it will prove too high. Iowa State made the most of its opportunities given its limitations offensively but still scored 'only' 69 points in its fourth straight loss, this one coming at the hands of West Virginia on Monday. You would have to go all the way back to February 4th to find the last time the Cyclones made good on more than 24 field goals in a game. They do continue to hold up well defensively, however, limiting six of their last nine opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. They'll undoubtedly be looking to 'ugly it up' in this difficult road game against Baylor as well. Baylor has topped out at 26 made field goals over its last six games. The Bears aren't exactly pushing the pace, hoisting up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in seven straight games entering Saturday's contest. After allowing Texas and Oklahoma State to each get off 60 or more FG attempts in their last two games, I look for the Bears to clamp down on the Cyclones offense in this revenge spot. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-03-23 | Suns v. Bulls OVER 222.5 | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Bulls are on an incredible 'under' run right now (even though their most recent game did find its way 'over' the total in Detroit). I do think the total has been adjusted too low in this particular matchup, however, noting that Chicago figures to have its hands full with the new-look Suns offense. Phoenix didn't need to keep its foot on the gas for four quarters two nights ago in Charlotte (in Kevin Durant's team debut). I suspect they'll have to on Friday though. Note that the Suns have been pushing the pace more than usual lately, hoisting up 88 or more field goal attempts in six straight games. The Bulls play at a slow tempo but have been making the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down 40 or more field goals in three of their last four games. This has been a high-scoring series with each of the last three meetings eclipsing the 230 point mark. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
03-03-23 | The Citadel +6.5 v. Mercer | 41-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on The Citadel plus the points over Mercer at 5 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met last weekend as Mercer routed The Citadel by 22 points. I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair on Friday, however, noting that The Citadel is an impressive 8-1 ATS when playing away from home off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of only 0.3 points in that spot. Meanwhile, Mercer is 2-10 ATS in road/neutral site games after posting consecutive ATS victories, which is also the situation here, outscored by 8.1 points on average in that situation. Take The Citadel (8*). |
|||||||
03-02-23 | Stanford v. Oregon State +5 | Top | 83-60 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with Stanford in its double-digit victory over Washington last Sunday - a true 'get right' spot for the Cardinal after they had lost three games in a row. Now I feel the shoe is on the other foot as Stanford heads out on the road to face Oregon State on Thursday. The Beavers enter this contest having dropped three games in a row, including a tough two-point setback against rival Oregon last Saturday. I do think Oregon State can be a thorn in Stanford's side here, noting that the Beavers rank 109th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season and 338th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom), perhaps offering a bit of a 'shock to the system' to the Cardinal after they faced Washington (which ranks 78th in adjusted tempo) last time out. For Stanford, it might be easy to overlook to the Beavers with a tougher (on paper) road tilt against the Oregon Ducks on tap on Saturday. That wouldn't be wise, however, as Oregon State has staged recent home upsets against the likes of Colorado and USC (both since the start of February). Take Oregon State (10*). |
|||||||
03-01-23 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 232 | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Warriors last night. While this is a difficult back-to-back spot for Portland, I do think the game is well-positioned to fly 'over' the total. New Orleans last took the floor on Monday, suffering an embarrassing 101-93 home loss against the Magic. That was arguably the Pelicans worst offensive showing in over a month. I'm confident they bounce back here, noting that the Blazers are a mess defensively, having allowed 45 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, each of their last 21 opponents have knocked down more than 40 field goals. You have to figure Portland goes off offensively as well in this spot, noting that the Pelicans rarely play a lick of defense on the road, allowing 117.2 points per game on 48% shooting. These two teams last met in November and that contest totalled only 201 points. Both teams shot poorly on that night and the game was played at a snail's pace. I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-01-23 | Massachusetts v. Duquesne OVER 148.5 | Top | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough with UMass coming off three consecutive 'under' results and Duquesne checking off a low-scoring game of its own. The first meeting between these teams this season produced 166 total points. Neither team shot particularly well in that contest but the game was played at an exceptionally fast pace. I expect a similar up-tempo affair here. The Minutemen had been rolling along offensively, having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last nine games, before running into a tough Dayton defense last time out. Meanwhile, Duquesne has connected on 25 or more field goals in eight of its last nine contests, making good on 28 or more in six of its last eight games. Both teams have been solid on occasion defensively, but not with any consistency. I just don't see either side shying away from a track meet here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-23 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 235.5 | Top | 105-123 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Warriors most recent game on Sunday as they defeated the T'Wolves by a 109-104 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, noting that the pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in that Sunday contest, and I'm confident Portland will do its part to help this total along. The Warriors have run into a bit of a shooting funk over their last few games but figure to get on track here, noting that Portland has allowed 45 or more made field goals in seven of its last eight games with the opposition knocking down at least 40 field goals in an incredible 22 straight contests. Golden State has seen each of its last two foes - the T'Wolves and Rockets - get off 90 or more field goal attempts, but fail to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities, making good on just 38 and 36, respectively. Portland doesn't figure to have such trouble, noting that the Blazers have knocked down 42 or more field goals in five of their last six games, despite getting off 86 or fewer FG attempts in four of those contests. In fact, Portland has connected on 40 or more field goals in 12 of its last 14 games overall. Largely due to the Warriors recent low-scoring results (along with the fact that the likes of Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins remain sidelined) we're not seeing much of an adjustment to this total since the last time these two teams met on February 8th. That's notable when you consider that game reached a whopping 247 total points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-23 | Florida v. Georgia OVER 144.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Georgia at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total since the first meeting between these two teams this season - an 82-75 Florida victory back on January 7th. That game saw a closing total of 136 points. I believe the shift is warranted. Since that time, the Gators have lost forward Colin Castleton for the season with a hand injury. Much was made about the lost offense with Castleton sidelined, but there's a defensive aspect as well. Since Castleton went down, Florida has played three games. In those three contests, the Gators were torched for 34, 33 and 31 made field goals. While the reeling Bulldogs figure to offer a reprieve, at least on paper, I'm not so easily convinced. Note that Florida has been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with 11 of its last 13 opponents hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Georgia's offense has been stuck in the mud but has also been held to 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. Here, I think we see the Bulldogs push the pace more than usual, noting that they got off a whopping 68 FG attempts in a loss but ATS cover in the last meeting between these teams. Note that Castleton had seven blocks and eight defensive boards in that game so his absence figures to open things up. I mentioned Florida's struggling defense but Georgia is in the same boat. The Bulldogs have allowed 39, 37 and 33 made field goals over their last three contests. Like Florida, Georgia has also had a difficult time slowing down the opposition, yielding at least 57 FG attempts in 15 of its last 17 games. After a lull in late January and early February, the Gators have connected on 32, 29, 22, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-27-23 | West Virginia v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Monday. Last Monday we saw West Virginia rout Oklahoma State but I think the shoe is on the other foot this week as the Mountaineers stay on the road for a second game in three days. WVU is coming off a narrow two-point defeat at mighty Kansas on Saturday. The Mountaineers have now hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games but I think they're in for a 'shock to the system' against a revenge-minded Cyclones squad on Monday. That's because Iowa State ranks eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 325th in adjusted tempo this season, not to mention the fact that it has faced the sixth most difficult schedule (all according to KenPom). The Cyclones are coming off three straight losses, both SU and ATS, going cold offensively at the wrong time. I do think the door is open for a breakout performance offensively here, however, noting that West Virginia has allowed 30, 26, 29, 20 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. The outlier over that stretch came against a fast-fading Oklahoma State squad last Monday. There really wasn't much separating these two teams in their earlier meeting this season - a game West Virginia won by a 76-71 score. The difference ended up being the Mountaineers making good on seven more free throws, getting to the charity stripe 31 times in that contest. The Cyclones have been a more disciplined team in that regard here at home this season, where they've yielded just 17 free throw attempts per contest. Take Iowa State (10*). |
|||||||
02-26-23 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 234 | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter this contest off consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday evening in San Francisco. The Timberwolves continued to struggle defensively in Friday's 121-113 home loss to the Hornets, allowing Charlotte to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that Minnesota has now allowed 43 or more made field goals in six straight games and has shown little interest (or ability) in slowing its opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The story for the Warriors has been more about who has been missing from the lineup than who has been in it lately but Klay Thompson did manage to lift the team to a 116-101 win over the Rockets on Friday, pouring in 42 points. That game snapped a streak of eight straight contests in which Golden State had made good on at least 40 field goals. That had a lot to do with the fact that the Warriors didn't need to go full throttle after building a 66-49 halftime lead. Like the T'Wolves, the Warriors have done little to slow the opposition lately, allowing 90 or more FG attempts in seven of their last 12 contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 29-10 with Minnesota coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 251-202 with the Warriors playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-26-23 | Washington v. Stanford -5.5 | Top | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 6 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Stanford's home loss against Washington State on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cardinal as they look to take their frustrations out on Washington, and snap their three-game skid in the process, on Sunday. Washington has been fortunate to run into a very manageable schedule lately, reeling off three straight victories over Oregon, Oregon State and California. The Huskies have been fortunate that their last two opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities as punchless Beavers and Golden Bears squads made good on just 20 field goals apiece despite both getting off well north of 60 field goal attempts. Should the Cardinal reach that level of shot-volume here they have the potential to go off offensively. Stanford has been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 23 or more field goals in eight straight games and 28 or more in half of those contests. A tough slate of opponents let to a defensive lull from Stanford earlier this month but I did like what I saw on Thursday as the Cardinal limited Washington State to only 48 field goal attempts in the narrow defeat. Washington doesn't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as the Huskies have managed to get off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games, making good on 23 or less in four of those contests. This is a big revenge spot for the Cardinal after they dropped an 86-69 stunner in Washington back in January. Stanford quite simply had an off shooting night and ended up chasing for much of the game, ultimately getting off a whopping 70 FG attempts but connecting on only 24 of them. I look for a much sharper performance from the revenge-minded Cardinal here. Take Stanford (10*). |
|||||||
02-26-23 | Siena v. Iona UNDER 139.5 | 60-93 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Siena and Iona at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got precisely the results we wanted from both of these teams on Friday to set up this play on Sunday afternoon. Siena held a fifth straight opponent to fewer than 70 points but fell by a 69-66 score at Rider, eclipsing the total by a bucket. Iona, meanwhile, routed Mount St. Mary's by an 80-68 score, easily shooting north of the total. While the Gaels have become known for their high-powered offense over the years, it's been a bit of a different story this season. They've leaned heavily on their defense, which has arguably been the best in the MAAC. Iona enters Sunday's contest having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, you would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Gaels got off more than 60 field goal attempts - a stark contrast to the pace we've seen from them in recent years. Siena doesn't figure likely to push the tempo here, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goals in any of its last nine contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Saints knocked down more than 23 field goals themselves. Siena ranks a respectable 138th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and hasn't allowed 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since New Year's Day and that contest against Fairfield still totalled only 131 points. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
02-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 138.5 | Top | 79-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season got into the 150's as both sides shot exceptionally well in Indiana's 79-74 home victory. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring affair, nor do I expect it to be there in Saturday's rematch. Note that Indiana has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. The Hoosiers have hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, only one of their last eight opponents has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts and Purdue, which ranks 325th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) doesn't figure to challenge that here. The Boilermakers have limited six of their last seven opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Since connecting on a whopping 33 field goals in a rout of Iowa on February 9th, the Boilers have made good on just 17, 22 and 27 field goals over their last three contests. With Indiana having limited five straight and 11 of its last 12 foes to 26 or fewer made field goals, I don't anticipate anything coming easy in this one, even with revenge on the minds of the Boilers on their home floor. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
02-25-23 | Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 152.5 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and South Dakota State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We got exactly the result we wanted from both of these teams two nights ago as they were both involved in lower-scoring than expected affairs to set us up with a reasonable total on Saturday. This is certainly a game South Dakota State has had circled since dropping an ugly 79-40 loss in its first meeting with Oral Roberts back in December. Note that the Jackrabbits enter this game on a serious offensive tear, having knocked down at least 27 field goals in six straight games, connecting on 30 or more in four of those contests. I do worry about South Dakota State defensively in this game, however, as it serves as a potential 'shock to the system' spot after holding a punchless UMKC offense to 50 points on 19-of-58 shooting on Thursday. Keep in mind, UMKC ranks 324th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 330th in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Oral Roberts represents a stark contrast, checking in 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 36th in adjusted tempo. Like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts has been on point offensively, making good on 30 or more field goals in six of its last seven and nine of its last 10 games overall. The Golden Eagles are vulnerable defensively, however, having allowed their last five opponents to knock down 30, 29, 25, 28 and 27 field goals. They've shown no interest (or ability) to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 14 games. South Dakota State might try to slow things down at times in this one but will be hard-pressed to do so against an ORU squad that has hoisted up 63 or more FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. Projected to be playing from behind for much of this game as a considerable home underdog, I'm not convinced the Jackrabbits will be able to avoid the temptation of a track meet here. Keep in mind, it was almost a year to the day (February 24th, 2022) that these two teams were involved in a thriller that totalled a whopping 208 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-24-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 232.5 | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced this will be the high-scoring track meet that most are expecting in Phoenix on Friday night. Oklahoma City is in a tough back-to-back spot after an overtime loss in Utah last night - not ideal when your conditioning might not be there after an extended All-Star break. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team as locked-in defensively as the Suns as they check in having held six of their last seven opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They allowed more than 40 made field goals just once over that stretch and that came in a game that still stayed 'under' the total in Atlanta - a game where they were short-handed on trade deadline day. Offensively, the Suns are rounding back into form with Devin Booker back in the lineup. However, they've still topped out at 43 made field goals in eight of their last nine games. The outlier came in a game where they shot the lights out against Sacramento just before the break (that contest still totalled 'only' 229 points). The Thunder have limited each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Last night's contest in Utah ended a stretch of four straight games in which they had held the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City was red hot from the field earlier in the month but has since cooled off, connecting on 38, 42 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last three contests. This is actually the first meeting between these two teams this season. They met on four occasions last season with 222 serving as the highest posted total. None of those four matchups surpassed the total we're working with tonight. As was often the case last season, I'm confident we'll see one, if not both teams bring their 'A' game defensively on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-24-23 | Fairfield v. Niagara OVER 124.5 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Niagara at 7 pm et on Friday. We got the result we wanted to set up this play in last Sunday's low-scoring 61-52 Niagara loss at Marist. While the Purple Eagles rate a ridiculous 350th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom), the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals accordingly and we haven't seen them post consecutive 'under' results since January 20th and 22nd (only one of those games stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight). Fairfield has seen each of its last three contests go 'over' the total. This isn't the same stout defensive Stags squad we've come to expect. They've allowed five of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals (one of those results was aided by overtime). While Fairfield won't 'wow' you offensively, it has at least shown some consistency, making good on 21 or more field goals in 10 straight games entering Friday's matchup. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Niagara's offense. It got off 59 field goal attempts but could only make good on 17 of them against an improved Marist squad last Sunday. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to December 18th to find the last time the Purple Eagles held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. They've yielded 24 or more successful field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. In the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season we saw 146 total points despite the two combining to knock down only seven three-pointers (they average 12 made threes per game combined this season). The pace was there in that game and Fairfield was able to get to the free throw line with consistency (as has often been the case this season as the Stags average 21 FT attempts per game). I like the fact that this game will be played at Niagara as the Purple Eagles have been a more efficient offensive team on their home floor, averaging two more made field goals per game compared to their season average, despite getting off one less field goal attempt on average. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-23-23 | Washington State v. Stanford UNDER 135 | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday. A lot has happened since these two Pac-12 squads last met back on January 14th. Most notably, the 'over' has gone 5-4 in Washington State's last nine games and 6-4 in Stanford's last 10 contests, including three straight Cardinal 'over' results entering Thursday's rematch. I'm expecting a game closely resembling what we saw back in January here, noting that game totalled just 119 points with both teams topping out at 22 made field goals and neither getting off more than 51 field goal attempts. Note that Washington State has held five of its last six opponents to 56 or fewer FG attempts. Stanford hasn't enjoyed the same type of defensive success and let's face it, the sudden uptick in the Cardinal's pace hasn't been working in their favor as they've lost four of their last five games. With that being said, I do think Stanford can get back on track defensively here, noting that Washington State ranks 328th in the country in adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom. The Cougars knocked down 29 and 27 field goals last week as it enjoyed consecutive wins against Oregon State and Oregon. Prior to that they had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. This isn't a court where Washington State has enjoyed a ton of offensive success in recent years, knocking down 20, 22, 21 and 24 field goals in its last four trips. Stanford has been rolling along offensively, making good on 28 or more field goals in three straight games but again, that has had something to do with playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing from the Cardinal. Note that it figures to face resistance here as Washington State ranks 53rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season despite having faced the 15th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-23-23 | Blazers v. Kings -5.5 | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We successfully faded the Kings in their last game before the All-Star break as they couldn't overcome a blistering shooting performance from the Suns in a double-digit loss in Phoenix. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Sacramento as it aims to bounce back on its home floor. We've seen wild swings in production from the Kings offense lately. They've knocked down 46 or more field goals in five of their last nine games. They were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in the other four contests. I do think they turn in a strong offensive performance here, noting that the Blazers have allowed 48, 47, 46, 47, 42 and 45 made field goals in their last six contests - consistently bad in other words. The Kings are by no means a defensive juggernaut but they have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Portland has been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. I mentioned the high ceiling of the Kings offense. Perhaps the opposite could be said of the Blazers, at least in recent weeks, as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. This is a double-revenge spot for the Kings as they look to get back at the Blazers after dropping a 115-108 decision at home against Portland back in October. Of note, Jerami Grant poured in a team-high 23 points, getting to the free throw line 13 times and knocking down all three of his three-point attempts, in that game. He's expected to return to the lineup on Thursday but hasn't played in just shy of two weeks. He's also struggled to recapture the form he displayed earlier in the season, scoring fewer than 20 points in seven of his last 11 contests. Take Sacramento (8*). |
|||||||
02-22-23 | Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 155 | 74-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and N.C. State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not convinced the oddsmakers can set this total high enough as the Demon Deacons and Wolfpack renew acquaintances on Wednesday night in Raleigh. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 156 points back on January 28th. The pace was certainly there on that night as we saw a whopping 129 field goal attempts. The Wolfpack did their part, knocking down 32-of-69 shots from the field but the Demon Deacons had an off night shooting the basketball, connecting on only 26-of-60 field goal attempts. You could say that N.C. State has been fortunate that its last few opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. The Wolfpack have allowed 61, 62 and 62 FG attempts over that stretch but none of those three foes managed to knock down more than 27. Wake Forest figures to test N.C. State in that regard here as the revenge-minded Demon Deacons have made good on 28 or more field goals in eight of their last 13 contests. On the flip side, Wake Forest leaves a lot to be desired defensively, having allowed its last seven opponents to knock down 28, 32, 27, 27, 30, 27 and 37 field goals. Meanwhile, N.C. State is locked-in offensively right now, pushing the pace and making the most of its scoring opportunities having connected on 37, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games since an embarrassing 19-of-57 shooting effort against one of the best defensive teams in the country, Virginia, back on February 7th. All told, the Wolfpack have made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall. The Demon Deacons have shown little interest (or ability) to slow down their opponents, allowing 60 or more FG attempts in seven of their last nine games and 63 or more in four straight contests. This game is a matchup of two teams that both rank inside the top-75 in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-22-23 | Arkansas State v. UL - Lafayette -14 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Sun Belt Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Arkansas State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season saw Louisiana-Lafayette prevail by an 80-71 score on the road but that final tally doesn't tell the whole story. Arkansas State shot the lights out from beyond the arc to keep pace in that contest, knocking down 11-of-22 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves average just 6-of-18 shooting from three-point range this season. In fact, Arkansas State is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country, ranking 308th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced only the 256th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Not only that but the Red Wolves rank 342nd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom) so the scoring opportunities are rarely there to keep pace with superior opponents. That didn't stop them from securing a 75-70 win over Georgia State last time out. Of course, the Panthers have their own issues, ranking 320th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but that's another story. Louisiana-Lafayette has hit a bit of a lull having dropped three of its last four games including a 74-68 decision on the road against a good James Madison squad last time out. I'm confident we'll see the Ragin' Cajuns take their frustrations out on the Red Wolves here, however. Note that Louisiana ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 139th toughest slate of opponents. The Ragin' Cajuns have been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 24 or more field goals in eight straight and 27 of 28 games overall this season. That's in stark contrast to Arkansas State, which has made good on 24 or more field goals just once in its last eight contests. The Red Wolves had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games entering tonight's clash. On the flip side, while it may seem impressive that Arkansas State has held its last five opponents to just 21, 21, 25, 21 and 25 made field goals, that's had everything to do with the fact that those five foes all got off 57 or fewer FG attempts. Louisiana-Lafayette has hoisted up 58 or more FG attempts in six of its last eight games and figures to push the pace here, noting that it shot 29-of-56 in its previous road tilt against Arkansas State this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). |
|||||||
02-21-23 | Youngstown State v. Robert Morris OVER 144 | 64-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Youngstown State and Robert Morris at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, Youngstown State is currently on an incredible shooting run having knocked down 30 or more field goals in six straight games. In fact, you would have to go back 24 games - all the way to November 20th - to find the last time the Penguins were held to fewer than 26 made field goals. While the schedule has had something to do with it (they've faced the 326th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom), the fact that they rank 30th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) is impressive to say the least. While Robert Morris has held up well defensively of late (it has limited four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals), the toughest offensive opponent it faced over that stretch was Cleveland State and the Vikings check in just 185th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 294th in adjusted tempo this season. Youngstown State should present somewhat of a 'shock to the system' here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 'only' 134 points in a Penguins blowout victory. Keep in mind, Robert Morris made good on just one three-pointers and five free throws in that contest. The Colonials average eight made threes and 12 successful free throws per contest here at home where tonight's rematch will be played. Robert Morris is by no means an offensive juggernaut but has knocked down at least 21 field goals in 23 straight games and could catch Youngstown State letting its guard down here after the Penguins routed Milwaukee and Green Bay by 29 and 30 points in their last two games. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-20-23 | Hawaii v. CS Bakersfield OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-50 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Cal State-Bakersfield at 8 pm et on Monday. Bakersfield has quietly gone on a 9-0 'over' run over its last nine contests and that includes an earlier 72-69 loss on the road against tonight's opponent, Hawaii, back on January 28th. The Roadrunners were held to fewer than 20 made field goals in seven of their first 18 games this season but have since found some consistency at the offensive end of the floor, knocking down 22 or more field goals in each of their last eight games, despite ranking 344th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. CSUB is also coming off a stellar defensive effort in an 'upset' win at Cal-Poly last time out. Stringing together strong defensive performances has proven difficult for the Roadrunners this season, however. Note that after holding an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals, they've allowed 72, 63, 79, 65, 71, 67 and 79 points in their next contest. They've actually held two of their last three foes to less than 20 successful FG attempts, but those games came against two of the country's weakest offensive teams in Cal State-Northridge and Cal-Poly. Hawaii ranks an impressive 66th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but has also faced only the 272nd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). The Rainbow Warriors have actually allowed seven of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate Long Beach State couldn't make the most of its scoring opportunities on Saturday as the 49ers got off 60 FG attempts but only connected on 25 of them (Hawaii won that game 70-67). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 31-16 in Hawaii's last 47 games as a road favorite or pk'em and 9-1 in CSUB's last 10 games when coming off an outright win as an underdog. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-19-23 | Rider v. Quinnipiac OVER 140 | Top | 88-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Rider and Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. When these teams last met this season they combined to score 'only' 135 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 143.5. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Rider has gone on an offensive tear over the last month or so, knocking down 29, 30, 26, 28, 25 and 30 field goals over its last six games and that's without facing the conference's fastest-paced team, Iona, a single time over that stretch. The Broncs defensive numbers have been terrific lately as well. They had held 11 straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals before giving up 26 in Friday's 81-78 loss to Canisius. With that being said, those results were certainly due in part to the slow-paced opponents they faced. Here, they'll be up against a Quinnipiac squad that ranks 57th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Like the Broncs, the Bobcats have been consistently good offensively of late, connecting on 27, 29, 23, 29, 24 and 24 field goals over their last six games. The problem for Quinnipiac is that it is still giving up too many scoring opportunities to the opposition, allowing nine consecutive opponents to hoist up at least 58 field goal attempts. Given how hot Rider has been from the field, there's a good chance it goes off here if the pace ticks up at all. With that being said, the Bobcats are favored for a reason. I'm confident both teams do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-19-23 | North Carolina v. NC State OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and N.C. State at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams combined to score 'only' 149 points in their first matchup this season. Interestingly, the Tar Heels scored 80 points in that game despite knocking down only 20-of-54 field goal attempts. The difference proved to be their ridiculous 36-of-39 performance from the free throw line. They were certainly fortunate that the Wolfpack couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities in that game as N.C. State did get off 62 field goal attempts (connecting on only 26 of them). I would certainly anticipate a sharper offensive performance from the Wolfpack in this home rematch, noting that they enter on a serious tear having made good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last six contests. North Carolina has done a good job of keeping its opponents' pace down lately, but has still allowed 24 or more made field goals in eight straight games. Meanwhile, N.C. State has been fortunate that its last two opponents, Boston College and Syracuse, have had off nights shooting the basketball as those two foes hoisted up 61 and 62 FG attempts, respectively. North Carolina figures to be able to take advantage of that potential high shot volume, noting that it has knocked down 30, 32 and 29 field goals over its last three contests. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-18-23 | Baylor v. Kansas OVER 148.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baylor and Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the first meeting between these two teams this season as Baylor prevailed by a score of 75-69 in a game that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. The Bears were fortunate to win that contest as they struggled to make good on their scoring opportunities, connecting on just 23-of-62 field goal attempts. While they're the underdog this time around, I do actually expect a better offensive showing, noting that they rank first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom and enter this game having made good on 25 or more field goals in five straight games. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Jayhawks right now. They've knocked down 33 or more field goals in each of their last three games. While they've posted a couple of standout defensive performances over their last five contests I still think it's worth noting that they haven't held a single opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game this season. Part of that has to do with the fact that they play at a fast pace, ranking 70th in the nation in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Kansas has hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in five of its last six games overall and I'm confident we'll see it go on the aggressive in this 'revenge' spot on Saturday. Baylor, while a solid defensive team, has allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-18-23 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 141.5 | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Florida State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off poor offensive showings last time out but I see this as an ideal 'get-right' spot in that regard for both on Saturday. Boston College once again got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts (for the third time in its last four games) but could only make good on 21 of those attempts against a terrific Pittsburgh team on Tuesday. The Eagles have still connected on 26 or more field goals in three of their last four contests and should benefit from facing a Florida State team that ranks 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Seminoles have apparently thrown defense out the window during a miserable 1-6 slide, allowing all seven of those opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals. Florida State is favored for a reason here, however. Boston College has also struggled defensively of late, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts and six of its last seven foes to make good on at least 26 field goals. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season so it's a little tougher for the oddsmakers to gauge where exactly the total should be set. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-17-23 | Dayton v. Loyola-Chicago +7.5 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Dayton at 7 pm et on Friday. Most completely wrote off Loyola-Chicago from a betting perspective in mid-January and perhaps for good reason as the Ramblers had started the 22-23 campaign with a miserable 3-15 ATS record through 18 games. Since then, however, Loyola-Chicago has gone a respectable 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and while it sits in last-place in the Atlantic-10 standings, all is not lose given all 15 teams will take part in the conference tournament in March. Here, the Ramblers will have revenge on their minds after dropping a tough 85-81 decision at Dayton back on January 31st, in a game where the Flyers owned a 31-13 disparity in terms of free throw attempts (keeping in mind Dayton only averages three more trips to the charity stripe than Loyola-Chicago this season). That game kicked off a 4-1 ATS run for the Ramblers and I look for them to improve on that mark here. Note that Loyola-Chicago has really turned things around defensively. After a stretch that saw it allow 28 or more made field goals in five of seven games from December 22nd to January 18th, they've yielded 26 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven contests. The outlier came in a game where they allowed St. Joseph's to knock down 28 of a whopping 68 field goal attempts. Dayton is highly unlikely to approach that level of shot volume here, noting that it ranks 339th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Offensively, we've seen more consistency from the Ramblers during their recent uptick as they've knocked down 23 or more field goals in six of their last seven games with the low-water mark coming earlier this week when they made good on only 21 field goals but still pulled out a 64-62 win at UMass. As I mentioned, Dayton plays at a very slow pace. The Flyers have hoisted up 56 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games overall. While they are a terrific defensive team, it's not as if they've been completely shutting down opposing offenses. Dayton has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 12 straight contests, including that game against Loyola-Chicago in which the Ramblers connected on 29-of-59 FG attempts. These two teams have faced almost identical schedules in terms of difficulty this season (according to KenPom) and while Dayton has proven to be the superior squad to be sure, Loyola-Chicago has at least narrowed the gap in recent weeks. I'm still not convinced the betting marketplace has caught up with the Ramblers improved play so I'll grab all the points I can get here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
02-16-23 | Stanford v. UCLA OVER 130.5 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 11 pm et on Thursday. It's easy to forget that the first meeting between these two teams produced 146 points as that matchup took place way back on December 1st. Since then, UCLA has been an 'under' machine, cashing at a 12-5 clip over its last 16 games. That leads us to a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Stanford enjoyed a nice run in late-January but has largely been an afterthought in the Pac-12 this season. With that being said, I have a lot of respect for the Cardinal offensively, noting that they rank 64th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, despite facing the nation's 63rd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). You would have to go back 19 games to find the last time Stanford was held to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game (I use that number as UCLA has held six of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals). Over their last five games, the Cardinal have impressively knocked down 28, 26, 24, 23 and 33 field goals. They've scored at least 62 points in eight straight contests. Unfortunately, the Cardinal defense hasn't been along for the ride, allowing 25, 29, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games. There's a good chance we see the Bruins offense go off in this one, noting that Stanford has also yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests opening the door for a sharp-shooting Bruins squad that has made good on 25 or more field goals in four straight games, despite hoisting up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in two of those contests. UCLA ranks 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 39th toughest slate of opponents to date (both according to KenPom once again). I do expect the Bruins to get pushed a bit in this one and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We have a good setup for this play on Thursday as both the Clippers and Suns shot the lights out in their respective games two nights ago but are unlikely to reach those heights in a much tougher matchup here. Los Angeles took advantage of an undermanned Warriors team playing the second of back-to-backs on Tuesday, putting up a whopping 134 points in a 10-point victory. Kawhi Leonard knocked down 12-of-17 shot attempts including a ridiculous 7-of-9 from three-point range. Norm Powell also enjoyed an outlier of a night off the bench, pouring in 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Powell is expected to sit out Thursday's game, however. Prior to that contest, the Clippers had been held to 38 and 42 made field goals in their previous two games, getting off just 86 and 85 field goal attempts in those contests - both of which stayed 'under' the total. Defensively, the Clips have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding five of their last eight foes to 84 or fewer FG attempts. The simple fact is, their last three opponents have shot incredibly well. I do think we see Los Angeles tighten the screws defensively here in its last game prior to the All-Star break against a familiar opponent in the Suns. Note that while Phoenix has made good on 42 or more field goals in all five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2022, it scored 'only' 106, 103, 109, 112 and 111 points in those five contests. The Suns did knock down a whopping 50 field goals in a night where everything was going in against a subpar Kings defense on Tuesday. Prior to that they had topped out at 43 made field goals over their last seven games. Few teams are as locked-in defensively as the Suns right now. They've limited five of their last six opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and have allowed just 35, 38, 43, 36 and 37 made field goals over that stretch. The lone outlier came in a road game at Atlanta with a short-handed lineup on trade deadline day last Thursday. Phoenix has certainly had Los Angeles' number defensively, holding it to 96 points or less in an incredible four of five meetings since last January (all five of those contests stayed 'under' the total). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-15-23 | Heat -1 v. Nets | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The excitement around the new-look, youthful Brooklyn Nets has faded somewhat as they've dropped consecutive games against the 76ers and Knicks. Despite catching fire from the field for stretches, the Nets still managed to knock down only 35 field goals and score just 106 points in Monday's lopsided defeat in Manhattan. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Brooklyn knocked down 40+ field goals in a game and things certainly won't get any easier as they host a Heat team coming off a loss two nights ago on Wednesday. Miami ran into a red-hot shooting Nuggets squad on Monday, falling by four points. Still, the Heat have held an incredible 16 straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of their last 22 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven and 10 of their last 12 games overall. On many occasions, the opportunities just haven't been there in abundance as Miami does play at a slow pace. I don't anticipate that being an issue here, however, noting that the Nets have allowed four of their last seven opponents to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts. This is undoubtedly a game the Heat have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 102-101 decision at home against the Nets back on January 8th. Brooklyn has now won back-to-back meetings in this series which is notable as it hasn't posted three straight victories over the Heat since 2017-18. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
02-15-23 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +8 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a previous big ticket on Georgia Tech in its upset home win over Miami in early January but have left the Yellow Jackets alone since and probably for good reason as they followed up that victory with a 1-7 ATS slide. However, we have seen signs of life once again from Georgia Tech lately as it enters Wednesday's matchup with Virginia Tech off three straight ATS victories. Last time out it suffered a narrow one-point loss as a 13-point underdog at Wake Forest. While few are paying attention to them, I believe the Yellow Jackets are in good position to at the very least take the Hokies down to the wire on Wednesday. We haven't necessarily seen the payoff just yet but the Jackets are doing a nice job of pushing the pace, having gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four and seven of their last 10 games overall. Here, they'll face a Hokies squad that has been terrific offensively in recent weeks but it has seemingly come at the expense of their defensive play. Virginia Tech checks in having allowed 29, 23, 35, 25, 29 and 34 made field goals over its last six contests. Of those six opponents only two got off more than 60 field goal attempts so it's not as if the opposition has found success only by volume-shooting. As I mentioned, Virginia Tech is on a tear offensively, however Georgia Tech does figure to offer some resistance. The Yellow Jackets check in a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 66th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). They've held their last four opponents to just 21, 26, 23 and 23 made field goals and that's despite three of those games coming on the road. Also note that Georgia Tech has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and ranks 220th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season. There's a path for the revenge-minded Yellow Jackets (they dropped both meetings in this series last season) to effectively shorten this game and stay inside the generous pointspread. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Kings v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Suns as they try to close the gap on the Kings in the Pacific Division standings (Phoenix currently sits two games back of Sacramento for top spot). Sacramento has been a terrific story this season but we've certainly seen some regression from the Kings lately as they've gone an even 6-6 over their last 12 games. We did get the result we wanted from them on Saturday as they successfully avenged a loss to the Mavs in the second half of a back-to-back set at home, prevailing 133-128 in overtime. That sets us up with a reasonably short number in favor of the Suns at home here. While Phoenix is a little undermanned right now with Kevin Durant still sidelined and yet to make his team debut, I like the fact that it has gone back to its bread-and-butter, that being its defense, to right the ship. The Suns have won three of their last five games and are absolutely locked-in defensively right now having held four of those five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Suns opponents have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, managing only 75, 81, 79, 95 and 85 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The outlier came in a game where they were severely short-handed on trade deadline day against the Hawks (Devin Booker missed that game as well). Save for that poor performance in Atlanta, the Suns have made good on more than 40 field goals in four of their last five and six of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Kings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 48, 44, 47, 43 and 47 (aided by overtime) field goals over their last five contests. In fact, Sacramento has allowed an incredible 20 straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. Offensively, the Kings are explosive but we've seen some inconsistency in that department lately as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three of their last six games. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Miami-OH v. Toledo UNDER 157 | 71-89 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met on January 31st in a game that totalled 159 points. It's worth noting that both teams shot the lights out in that game with Miami-Ohio connecting on 31-of-58 field goal attempts and Toledo knocking down 33-of-64. It was a similar story in the Redhawks and Rockets previous matchup last February in Toledo as Miami-Ohio made good on a ridiculous 14 three-pointers (it averages six made threes per game on the road this season) while the Rockets knocked down 35-of-65 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that while Toledo does play fast, it doesn't play any faster at home compared to on the road and I do think Miami-Ohio can at least slow the Rockets down to a certain extent, noting that the Redhawks have limited opponents to just 55 FG attempts per contest on the road this season and check in having impressively limited their foes to fewer than 60 FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 games overall. While Miami-Ohio doesn't rate out well defensively this season according to KenPom, it has played better lately, holding 10 of its last 13 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and four of its last six to 26 or less. Offensively, the Redhawks are once again sputtering, having made good on 24, 24, 31, 22, 26 and 20 field goals over their last six contests. The lone outlier over that stretch came against Toledo but we've seen the Rockets right the ship defensively since, yielding just 20, 27 and 26 made field goals over their last three games, despite allowing 65 or more FG attempts in two of those three contests. After knocking down 30 or more field goals in four of five games from January 17th to 31st, Toledo has made good on just 28, 26 and 24 field goals over its last three games. While you would have to go back three meetings to find the last 'under' result in this series, we haven't seen three straight meetings go 'over' the total (or push) since 2016-17. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Buffalo +5.5 v. Ohio | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Buffalo in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to back the Bulls again in Tuesday's rematch in Ohio. While Buffalo has been involved in its share of track meets this season, I believe it is a better defensive team than most give it credit for. The Bulls got off to a terrible start at that end of the floor in non-conference play but have certainly turned things around over the last month or so, limiting eight of their last 12 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. That's despite 10 of those 12 foes hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Of course, the Buffalo offense is going to be there. The Bulls rank 163rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). They've faced the 118th most difficult schedule in the country while Ohio has gone against the 190th toughest slate of opponents (also according to KenPom). I mentioned that Buffalo has been tougher defensively than most give it credit for - I feel the opposite is true for Ohio. The Bobcats have allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down at least 28 field goals. They've been consistently allowing opponents to get well into the 20's in terms of made field goals despite holding seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Offensively, the Bobcats have admittedly been red hot lately, making good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last seven games. Of course three of those 30+ field goal performances came against three of the MAC's worst teams in Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Take Buffalo (10*). |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Wizards v. Warriors OVER 232.5 | 126-135 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I think we see a 'slingshot' effect from the Warriors offense here after they failed to make the most of their wealth of scoring opportunities in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers on Saturday. Here, they're in a prime bounce-back spot against a Wizards squad that has allowed 42 or more made field goals in eight of their last 10 games (the only two occasions where they didn't over that stretch came against struggling offenses in the Pelicans and Hornets - both of those teams managed to get off 92+ field goal attempts). Note also that five of the Wizards last eight opponents have hoisted up at least 92 field goal attempts so they've shown no ability, or interest, in slowing the pace. Prior to Saturday's game, the Warriors had made good on 43, 45, 56 and 46 field goals over their last four contests. They've gotten off at least 90 FG attempts in six of their last eight games overall and figure to stay aggressive here off consecutive losses. Defensively, the Warriors have left a lot to be desired. They check in having allowed at least 40 made field goals in an incredible 19 of their last 20 games. They're just one game removed from allowing Portland to shoot north of 55% from the field. The last time these two teams met we saw 245 total points in a Warriors road victory in mid-January. We're actually working with a lower posted total this time around and that has a lot to do with who isn't playing for the Warriors right now (Steph Curry is sidelined until after the All-Star break and Andrew Wiggins is questionable to play due to an ankle injury). Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 156.5 | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. This total is about as high as you would expect in this matchup, noting that we saw a closing total of 154 in a game that totalled only 142 points in the most recent meeting between the two teams last season. While North Carolina is always going to be known for its offense, it can play some defense as well. The Tar Heels have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals while also limiting six of their last nine foes to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. North Carolina checks in ranked a respectable 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Hurricanes are admittedly red hot offensively right now, having made good on more than 30 field goals in three of their last four games. However, their margin for error hasn't been all that large as they've gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in four of their last six games and 60 or less in eight of their last 10 contests overall. Miami hasn't played its best defensive basketball lately, yielding 28 or more made field goals in three of its last four games with Saturday's poor performance at that end of the floor against Louisville perhaps serving as a low-water mark (it allowed the Cardinals to knock down 33-of-57 field goal attempts). The Canes have managed to limit their opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, however, allowing just 51, 59, 54 and 57 FG attempts over their last four games. That type of discipline defensively would undoubtedly serve them well in an underdog role against the Tar Heels here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Marist +10 v. Siena | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Marist plus the points over Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Red Foxes in this Sunday MAAC matchup. Siena took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 15 points back on January 29th. Marist had an absolutely dreadful game from beyond the arc, knocking down only 2-of-18 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, it averages seven made threes per game on the season. In that previous meeting, Siena also got to the free throw line 13 more times, making good on 10 of those attempts. These are disparities I just don't see repeating themselves in Sunday's rematch. Marist has held five of its last six opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts, giving it a path to effectively shorten this contest as a large underdog on Sunday. The only occasion where it allowed more than that number, it won by eight points against Canisius. Offensively, the Red Foxes managed to get off 61 FG attempts against St. Peter's on Friday, but simply couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 19. Prior to that they had made good on 20 or more field goals in five straight games. Here, they'll face a Siena squad that has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 18 consecutive games, despite each of its last 11 opponents getting off fewer than 60 FG attempts. Offensively, the Saints have been limited to 52 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 22 or fewer field goals in all four of those contests. Take Marist (10*). |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Quinnipiac v. Canisius OVER 144.5 | 65-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Quinnipiac and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled a whopping 169 points and while we're working with a slightly higher posted total in this rematch, I believe it will still prove too low. Quinnipiac has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in six of its last seven games overall and it should be able to make the most of those scoring opportunities here noting that Canisius' opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 33, 30, 25, 26 and 33 field goals over its last six contests. The Golden Griffins are coming off a poor offensive showing in a blowout loss to Iona on Friday as they knocked down only 20-of-53 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had gotten off more than 60 FG attempts in four straight games, making good on 25 or more field goals in all four of those contests. Quinnipiac has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests - the only opponent it held down over that stretch was Fairfield, one of, if not the worst offensive team in the MAAC. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-11-23 | BYU +12 v. Gonzaga | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU plus the points over Gonzaga at 10 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted in these two teams' most recent games earlier this week. BYU suffered a stunning double-digit loss at Pepperdine while Gonzaga rolled to a blowout win over San Francisco. That sets the Bulldogs up as a big double-digit favorite against the Cougars here. Note that BYU nearly staged the upset against the mighty Zags at home earlier this season, dropping a 75-74 decision as a +6.5-point underdog. Despite the loss on Thursday, BYU does enter this game playing well offensively - better than it was the last time it faced the Zags. The Cougars have made good on 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, they've held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Gonzaga shot the lights out against San Francisco last time out, knocking down a whopping 34 field goals. The Bulldogs haven't made good on 30 or more field goals in consecutive games over their last six contests. Defensively, Gonzaga has allowed 27 or more made field goals in four of its last six games with four of its last five foes hoisting up at least 60 FG attempts. In other words, the scoring opportunities should be there for the underdog Cougars on Saturday. Take BYU (10*). |
|||||||
02-11-23 | Colorado v. Utah UNDER 137 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with Colorado in its most recent game as it shot the lights out in the second half in an eventual blowout win over Stanford last Sunday. The Buffaloes aren't exactly known for their offense, noting they rank 141st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Prior to last Sunday's breakout performance, Colorado had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in seven of its previous eight games. The going won't be easy on the road against a Utah squad that ranks a respectable 30th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Speaking of that metric, Colorado checks in 19th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buffaloes have limited six straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts with only three of those opponents getting north of 50. Utah, like Colorado, has been inconsistent offensively. It could only connect on 21-of-57 field goal attempts against a bad California defense last time out. The Utes have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games with 25 being their high-water mark over that stretch. Both meetings between these two teams last season were surprisingly high-scoring, getting into the 150's despite closing totals in the high-130's. I believe those results are helping play a factor in keeping this total a little higher than it should be on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-11-23 | Nuggets v. Hornets OVER 235.5 | 119-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet as the Nuggets lick their wounds following a loss in Orlando two nights ago and head to Charlotte, where they'll face a reeling Hornets squad on the second of back-to-backs. The Hornets have lost six straight games, with the 'under' going 5-1 over that stretch. We've certainly seen signs of life from Charlotte offensively, however, noting that it has knocked down exactly 45 field goals in two of its last three games. The Hornets are certainly pushing the pace, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. I'm confident we'll see them find offensive success here, noting that the Nuggets have allowed 40 or more made field goals in seven straight games and 47+ in two of their last three contests. Offensively, Denver has been inconsistent, largely due to key contributors in and out of the lineup due to 'load management' and otherwise. Here, we find the Nuggets coming off an off day and well-positioned to feast against a non-existent Hornets defense that has allowed seven consecutive opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Just last night, the Hornets held the Celtics to 89 field goal attempts but still allowed a whopping 127 points. In fact, Charlotte has given up 114 or more points in seven straight games. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached 'only' 234 total points but that was a situation where Denver was able to 'manage' the game as a -9-point home favorite. Here, I expect the Nuggets to be far more aggressive from the opening tip to the final buzzer in what sets up as a high-scoring affair in Charlotte. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-10-23 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 241.5 | Top | 138-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. While the number may look sizable at first glance, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against both the Thunder and Blazers lately. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 45 or more made field goals in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, Portland has seen three straight opponents knock down at least 46 field goals. The good news is, both offenses are humming as well. The Thunder have put up 120 points or more in four of their last seven games and have made good on 56, 44 and 49 field goals over their last three games. They're pushing the pace at every opportunity as well, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. It's a similar story for the Blazers. Apart from a brief lull against the Bucks earlier this week, they've knocked down 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While dealing away Josh Hart leaves a bit of a void offensively, that should only mean more shot attempts for the red hot Damian Lillard. You certainly don't get better defensively after dealing away a guy like Hart. You only have to go back two meetings in this series to see the last time Oklahoma City and Portland combined to put up more than 240 total points and four matchups to find the last time they got into the 260's. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-10-23 | Marist v. St. Peter's UNDER 124.5 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and St. Peter's at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams saw just 118 points scored in a narrow St. Peter's road victory. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around than we saw in that mid-January matchup and it has a lot to do with the fact that both of these teams are coming off consecutive 'over' results. I expect those 'over' streaks to come to a halt on Friday. Marist has been pushing the pace a little more than we've been accustomed to seeing lately but that's been largely game-script dependent as it has often been playing from behind by considerable margins. Note that the Red Foxes check in ranked 336th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 278th in adjusted tempo despite only facing the 341st toughest slate of opponents this season (all according to KenPom). Things won't get any easier here noting that St. Peter's has been effective in severely limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 50 field goal attempts in an incredible seven straight games entering Friday's contest. Last time out, the Peacocks simply ran into a hot shooting Rider squad in an 81-62 loss. Prior to allowing the Broncs to knock down 26 field goals in that game, they had held six consecutive foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. It's been another story offensively as St. Peter's continues to struggle. It has topped out at 23 made field goals over its last six games and that came in a contest where it shot better than 52% from the field. The Peacocks rank a miserable 327th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo. Going back to that first meeting between these two teams this season, it reached only 118 total points despite the two teams combining to shoot 51 free throws (making 38). Note that on the season, these two squads average just 21-of-30 combined from the charity stripe. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-09-23 | Arizona v. California +19 | 85-62 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on California plus the points over Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. While California has gone a miserable 3-20 straight-up this season it has found plenty of pointspread success. The Golden Bears started the season with five straight ATS losses (none of those defeats came by more than 10 points) but since then have gone a respectable 10-8 ATS. Here, they catch Arizona off three consecutive ATS wins. The Wildcats have been red hot offensively but I can't help but feel they get slowed here noting that the Bears rank 356th out of 363 Division I teams in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). There's a path for Cal to effectively shorten this game and keep things reasonably competitive, especially noting it went to Tucson and lost by 'only' 13 points against the Wildcats earlier this season. While Cal's offense has been dreadful, it has faced the 27th most difficult slate of defensive opponents in the country this season (again according to KenPom). It will undoubtedly face a tough challenge against Arizona here as well, although there is hope as the Wildcats tend to give up their share of scoring opportunities with nine of their last 11 opponents getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that Arizona is a long-term 38-59 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Cal has been outscored by just 4.2 points on average the last 15 times it has come off four consecutive games in which it scored 65 points or less, which is the situation it is in on Thursday. Take California (8*). |
|||||||
02-09-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State OVER 145 | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cal-Santa Barbara and Long Beach State at 11 pm et on Thursday. Santa Barbara plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation yet checks into this game on the heels of four straight 'over' results, including a stunning loss as a double-digit road favorite at Cal State-Fullerton last time out. It's an interesting contrast when it comes to the Gauchos as they play slow but are ultra-efficient offensively. Here, I expect them to get plenty of good looks against a Long Beach State squad that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the country, only ranking behind Alabama in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The 49ers enter this game off six straight wins, fortunate that a number of their recent opponents haven't been able to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities. Long Beach State has allowed six of its last seven opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Last time out, it yielded a whopping 70 FG attempts against Cal-Irvine in a game that reached 181 total points. As I mentioned, the 49ers like to play fast offensively, hoisting up more than 70 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests. They've made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last seven games overall. Cal-Santa Barbara has faced a slew of weaker Big West squads lately, favored by double-digits in four of its last five games. While the Gauchos are a top-100 team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom), that has had something to do with the fact they've only faced the 305th most difficult schedule in the country. It's interesting to note that Santa Barbara has been held under 70 points in each of their last three games, matching their longest such streak of the season. A date with Long Beach State should provide ample opportunity to bounce back in what projects as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-09-23 | Bucks v. Lakers OVER 239 | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. This total is on the rise, and for good reason. The Lakers made a big splash in a three-way trade with the Grizzlies and Timberwolves last night although their reinforcements aren't expected to suit up until Saturday against Golden State. For Thursday, the absence of Russell Westbrook (he's off to Utah) leaves the Lakers in a tougher spot defensively than offensively in my opinion. Westbrook is actually quietly having one of his best defensive seasons even if his offensive performance is brought into question on a regular basis. The Lakers enter this game on a roll offensively having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. They should relish the opportunity to push the pace against a Bucks squad that has shown no ability (or interest) in slowing the tempo, allowing 91 or more field goal attempts in five straight games. Of course, the Bucks can score with the best of them. They've knocked down at least 43 field goals in five of their last six games. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that has allowed 45, 44, 45, 52 and 49 made field goals over their last five games. In the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season we saw a whopping 262 total points scored. While we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-09-23 | Bucks v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Milwaukee at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a flyer on the Lakers here as they catch a generous helping of points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Everything went right for Milwaukee on Monday as it cruised to a 19-point win over the Blazers in Portland. The Bucks were certainly fortunate that Portland had an off night shooting as the Blazers actually got off 91 field goal attempts in that contest. Milwaukee is still giving up far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, allowing each of its last five opponents to hoist up at least 91 field goal attempts. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that brings solid offensive form to the table having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. Note that the Bucks enter this game off consecutive ATS wins which is notable as they haven't strung together three straight ATS victories since the first week of November. The Bucks are a long-term 113-166 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive straight-up wins, as is the case here. Despite their lopsided win in Portland on Monday, they're still just 14-12 SU on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.4 points. The Lakers are winless ATS over their last three games. That's their longest ATS losing streak since dropping the cash in five straight games from December 18th to 25th. While they're just 13-13 SU at home this season they've outscored opponents by 2.3 points on average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
02-09-23 | Nuggets v. Magic +6.5 | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Denver at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. We got the results we wanted two nights ago to set up this play on Thursday. The Nuggets avenged a loss in Minnesota two nights earlier with a resounding 146-112 win over the Timberwolves at home (they jumped ahead 49-19 after the first quarter) while the Magic dropped a 102-98 loss at home against the surging Knicks. It's important not to disregard the Magic, however, as this is a young team that is learning to win, having notched 10 victories in their last 14 games. Incredibly by today's NBA standards, Orlando has held eight of its last nine opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the only occasion where an opponent did get over that number, the Magic still won by seven points in Minnesota. The Magic are coming off a subpar offensive performance against a good Knicks defense two nights ago but it's worth noting they haven't been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games since December 3rd and 5th. The Nuggets are likely to re-tool prior to Thursday's trade deadline in an effort to 'keep up with the Joneses' in the Western Conference, which could also help our cause in terms of closing line value here. Here, we'll note that Denver enters this contest having allowed six straight opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. Remember, when these two teams last met in Denver on January 15th, the Nuggets won by only three points as -10.5-point favorites. Take Orlando (8*). |
|||||||
02-08-23 | Wolves v. Jazz OVER 236 | 143-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring track meet between these Northwest Division rivals on Wednesday night. Minnesota got crushed by Denver last night. The lopsided nature of that contest actually helps the Timberwolves cause here as no starter played more than 20 minutes. Here, we'll note that Minnesota has been the picture of consistency offensively, scoring at least 110 points in 16 straight games entering Wednesday's contest. Utah has been held to 108 and 111 points in suffering consecutive losses over its last two games. I'm not one bit worried about the Jazz offense though. They're just two games removed from a 131-point performance in a home win over the Raptors. They've scored at least 120 points in five of their last nine games. Utah has faced Minnesota only twice at full strength (or close to it) this season and scored 132 and 126 points in those two contests (it was missing both Lauri Markannen and Collin Sexton in the other meeting - a 118-108 loss). I think both teams enter this game knowing they'll need to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters in order to secure a win. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-08-23 | Florida v. Alabama OVER 147.5 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Alabama at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Despite playing at the fasted tempo in the country this season (according to KenPom), Alabama has posted just two 'over' results in its last 10 games. Each of the Crimson Tide's last two contests have stayed 'under' the total. That's helped set us up with a very reasonable total on Wednesday as the Tide host the Florida Gators. Florida checks in off a 72-67 loss at Kentucky on Saturday. Both of these teams tend to give up a ton of scoring opportunities with Florida having allowed at least 60 field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. Alabama has yielded more than 60 field goal attempts to its opponents in 16 of its last 18 contests. While both squads rate out well in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (again according to KenPom), I believe the door is open for both offenses to go off on Wednesday. Florida has been held under 70 points in three straight games entering this contest - its longest such streak of the season. It did show some signs of life offensively last time out, knocking down 23 field goals in a tough spot at Kentucky. After facing a pair of down-trodden squads in Vandy and LSU over its last two games, I believe Alabama could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here, noting that prior to holding those two foes under 20 made field goals, the Crimson Tide had allowed seven of their previous eight opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Offensively, Alabama is elite. The Crimson Tide continue to 'fill it up', making good on at least 25 field goals in an incredible 15 of their last 16 games overall. The Gators were locked-in defensively earlier in the campaign but have since sagged in that regard, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down at least 22 field goals - a number Alabama is sure to eclipse with ease here. The pace will be there, whether this total proves high enough will depend on whether the two teams can make the most of their scoring opportunities. I'm confident they will, noting that last year's lone meeting reached 153 total points despite both teams shooting worse than 43% from the field. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-08-23 | Pacers +7 v. Heat | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We got the result we wanted from the Pacers on Sunday to set up this play as they fell in blowout fashion at home against the Cavs. I don't think Miami has any business laying so many points at home, noting that while it has gone 17-9 on this floor this season, it has only outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. This particular series has been as close as it gets in three previous meetings this season, with those three contests decided by a grand total of 10 points, with Indiana winning twice, including a 111-108 victory here in Miami on December 23rd. Here, we'll note that the Pacers are a long-term 54-32 ATS when coming off a home loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Indiana (8*). |
|||||||
02-08-23 | Spurs v. Raptors OVER 234 | Top | 98-112 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. This one has the potential to get ugly fast for the Spurs. However, rather than lay the points with the Raptors, we'll play the 'over' in this spot as I am confident San Antonio can punch back for stretches in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team we've seen in the NBA in quite some time. They enter this game in their absolute worst form of the season having allowed six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals with five of those foes hitting 50 or more, including their most recent opponent, the Chicago Bulls. On the road this season, they're allowing a ridiculous average of 47 made field goals per game, leading to just north of 125 points per contest. The Raptors enter this game playing fast. They've hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of their last eight games. They've made good on 40 or more field goals in 11 straight contests. On the flip side, the Raptors have been doing a good job of slowing their opponents down. I'm just not sure they'll need to given the wealth of scoring opportunities they're likely to have at the offensive end of the floor in this one. Note that Toronto did hold an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals for the first time in six games on Sunday in Memphis. Of course, that was with the Grizzlies missing a number of key contributors including Ja Morant, not to mention the fact that Memphis got off just 78 field goal attempts in the game (they knocked down 38 of them). Should the pace tick up at all in this one, as I suspect it will, the potential is there for the Spurs to go off offensively. Despite San Antonio's lack of success from a win-loss perspective, it does enter this game having made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight contests and 27 of their last 30 games overall. Note that both of these teams are coming off an off day (two in the case of Toronto) and will also have the day off on Thursday. No reason for either to hold anything back in this one. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-07-23 | Thunder +7.5 v. Lakers | 133-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this bounce-back spot sets up for the Thunder as they come off last night's drubbing at the hands of the Warriors in San Francisco. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is just one game removed from a 153-point explosion in a rout of the Rockets on Saturday. Being brought back to Earth by the defending champion Warriors might not have been the worst thing for the young Thunder. Los Angeles has been playing some of its best basketball but is in a bit of a tough spot here, returning home following a five-game road trip, noting that it is just 13-12, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points here this season. With no player seeing 30 or more minutes of action last night, I'm not as worried about the back-to-back spot for the Thunder. This is a team that has been outscored by just 3.3 points on average on the road this season and I expect them to respond favorably following last night's blowout defeat. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
|||||||
02-07-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh OVER 138.5 | Top | 57-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams fizzled this season as Pittsburgh rolled to a 75-54 road win on January 18th. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Louisville has shown some signs of life offensively of late, knocking down 25 or more field goals in three of its last four games. The Cardinals had their share of opportunities in that first meeting with Pitt but simply couldn't convert, making good on just 19 field goals. It's not as if Pitt is a defensive juggernaut. The Panthers have allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate last time out that North Carolina had an off night shooting, as the Tar Heels actually got off a whopping 66 field goal attempts, but could only hit 23 of them. Here, I'm just not convinced we see a peak performance from the Pitt defense against an opponent it has already manhandled this season. On the flip side, the Panthers figure to take advantage of an awful Louisville defense that has seemingly gotten even looser lately, allowing three straight opponents to get off more than 60 FG attempts. Pitt enters this contest having made good on 28, 26 and 25 field goals over its last three games and has hoisted up 55 or more FG attempts in seven of its last eight overall. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-06-23 | Spurs +11 v. Bulls | Top | 104-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are in uncharted territory right now having reeled off four straight home wins (their longest previous home win streak this season lasted only three games). I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown on Monday, however, as they host the lowly Spurs, who haven't tasted victory since January 17th. This one might not be as straight-forward as it looks on paper for Chicago, noting that San Antonio has actually taken two of three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 129-124 victory as a five-point underdog back in late October. While the Spurs enter this game riding an eight-game losing streak (seven straight losses ATS), they have shown signs of life lately, knocking down 48, 42, 48 and 52 field goals over their last four games. In their last five contests playing with at least a day's rest on the road, they've lost by three in New York, eight and six (in a two-game set) in Memphis, by 20 in Portland and by nine in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). So it's not as if they've been getting their doors blown off away from home. Defensively, San Antonio is arguably the league's worst team and it certainly doesn't head to Chicago in solid form in that regard. With that being said, the Bulls are certainly poised for some regression offensively. Chicago has actually gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games, but managed to knock down 41 or more of those shots on three occasions over that stretch. I don't think the numbers add up to extended pointspread success. Here, we'll note that the Bulls are a long-term 112-154 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins. Take San Antonio (10*). |
|||||||
02-06-23 | Green Bay v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 142 | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 148 points back in December. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around as a result, but I believe it's warranted. Green Bay enters this contest off four straight 'under' results. The Phoenix have shot poorly over that stretch - in fact, they've been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four straight games, their longest such streak of the season. I do think the pace alone should get them over the hump here, however, noting that Wisconsin-Milwaukee ranks 17th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Panthers have allowed 16 consecutive opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Their last game snapped a stretch of nine straight contests in which they allowed 62 or more field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the pitiful Phoenix made good on 23 field goals and scored 67 points in the first meeting between these teams this season. The Panthers were fortunate to secure a 72-69 win over IUPUI last time out. They got off a whopping 69 FG attempts in that contest but could only hit 26 of them. I certainly anticipate them improving on that shooting percentage here, noting that Green Bay ranks a miserable 361st in the nation (that's third-to-last) in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL OVER 145.5 | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Miami at 7 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last met on January 21st, they combined to score just 134 points. We're dealing with a lower posted total for this rematch and I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in the first meeting. Duke got off 62 field goal attempts while Miami countered with 63. Both teams ended up shooting poorly with the Blue Devils knocking down 25 field goals and the Hurricanes making good on only 22 in a narrow two-point defeat. It's worth noting that Miami has been more efficient offensively while also playing at a slightly faster pace at home compared to on the road this season. The Canes enter this contest on an offensive tear having knocked down 31, 26, 35 and 26 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 58 or fewer field goal attempts in three of those tilts. Duke has had little success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace lately, allowing 63 or more FG attempts in three of its last five games. Meanwhile, Miami's opponents have been afforded plenty of good looks, knocking down 25 or more field goals in an incredible 10 straight games. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 238.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. PLEASE NOTE: I released this play in the early morning hours when the total was in the high-230's. With the news of Jokic, Murray and Gordon possibly all sitting for the Nuggets, it has dropped considerably. I do still recommend the play at the current number, albeit with a lower confidence level. We just missed with the 'under' in the Nuggets rout of the Hawks last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Denver hits the road for a back-to-back spot at Minnesota on Sunday. Last night's game ended a streak of 11 straight games in which the Nuggets held opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The lopsided nature of that affair against Atlanta certainly contributed to Denver's relatively loose defensive play. 'Fat and happy' off three straight wins, scoring 122 or more points in all three contests, I'm not convinced we'll see a peak offensive performance from Denver again on Sunday. Minnesota will certainly be focused on tightening things up defensively after allowing Orlando to go off for 127 points in an 'upset' home loss on Friday. Prior to that contest, the Timberwolves had seen seven straight games stay 'under' the total and the 'under' remains 18-13 in their home games this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-05-23 | Mt. St. Mary's +12 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mount St. Mary's plus the points over Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. With Mount St. Mary's coming off a 30-point rout at Iona and Quinnipiac winning by 15 points against Fairfield on Friday, most will likely be looking to lay the points with the Bobcats at home on Sunday. I'll go the other way, however, noting that Quinnipiac checks in a long-term 10-24 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. Mount St. Mary's has held four straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts (which just happens to be the average number of FG attempts it has allowed per game this season) and can effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday and ultimately keep the Bobcats within arm's reach. Quinnipiac has allowed four straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more FG attempts. While Mount St. Mary's is no offensive juggernaut, it does have a fairly solid floor when it comes to offensive production, knocking down 20 or more field goals in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest (that's notable given the slow pace it plays at). Take Mount St. Mary's (10*). |
|||||||
02-04-23 | Oregon State +19.5 v. Arizona | 52-84 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. I simply feel the Wildcats are laying too many points in this rematch of their 86-74 road win over Oregon State back on January 12th. Few teams play slower than the Beavers and I do think there's a path for them to keep this game competitive on Saturday in Tucson. It's certainly been a trying campaign for Oregon State but it has also faced the 56th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. The Beavers have mustered little offense but do rank a respectable 126th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Unlike the last time they faced Arizona, they do enter this game in terrific defensive form, having held their last four opponents to just 18, 22, 21 and 22 made field goals. The last time they faced Arizona they allowed the Wildcats to shoot 32-of-61 from the field - both of those numbers represent season-highs for Oregon State in Pac-12 play - yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Of note, the Beavers got off 60 field goal attempts of their own in that contest - matching a season-high for them in conference play - and here they'll face a Wildcats squad that has allowed 60 or more FG attempts in nine of their last 10 games (the only game in which they didn't they won by just five points against Washington State - the blueprint from that contest could certainly be used by Oregon State here). In other words, the Beavers will undoubtedly have their share of scoring opportunities here and I'm willing to back them, while also fading a Wildcats squad that is coming off five straight wins and consecutive 90+ point performances. Take Oregon State (8*). |
|||||||
02-04-23 | Hawks v. Nuggets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 108-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Hawks are in a tough spot here, playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in the last four nights (in three different cities) as they continue their road trip in the high altitude of Denver on Saturday. Atlanta has been shooting the lights out, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five straight games. It also got off more than 90 field goal attempts in four of those five contests, however, a number I believe it will have a tough time approaching here. The Nuggets check in having held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They certainly haven't been at their best defensively during their current 3-0 'over' streak, allowing 46, 42 and 43 made field goals but again, I like the spot they catch the Hawks in here. While Atlanta is known for being extremely vulnerable defensively, the addition of Dejounte Murray has certainly helped its cause in that regard this season. The Hawks enter this contest having held eight of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. In the back half of their last six back-to-back situations, they've limited their foes to 89, 87, 83, 83, 86 and 83 FG attempts with the 'under' going 4-2 along the way (only one of those games went 'over' the total we're working with tonight). In the first meeting between these two teams this season both sides actually shot exceptionally well (Denver was 45-of-85 and Atlanta was 49-of-88) yet that game still totalled 'only' 226 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-04-23 | Syracuse v. Boston College OVER 138.5 | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Syracuse and Boston College at 5 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results earlier in the week. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as they do battle in a rematch of a New Year's Eve game that reached 144 total points. Syracuse enters this game shooting well, having knocked down 30, 28, 29, 31, 29, 23 and 24 field goals in its last seven games. The two outliers - coming in its last two contests - came in games where the Orange were held to fewer than 50 field goal attempts. I don't see this game being played at such a snail's pace, however. Note that the Orange have allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Boston College yields an average of 59 FG attempts to its opponents here in Chestnut Hill this season. Syracuse isn't an awful defensive team by any means but you would have to go all the way back to December 10th (against an awful Georgetown team) to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 23 made field goals. Of the Orange's last seven opponents, six have knocked down at least 25 field goals. It's a similar story for Boston College. The Eagles were fortunate that Clemson couldn't hit its shots last time out, connecting on only 16-of-52 FG attempts in a 62-54 Boston College victory. Prior to that, the Eagles had allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on at least 26 field goals with three of those foes connecting on 30 or more. Offensively, the Eagles are anything but a juggernaut but they're playing some of their best basketball right now and I do think they can give Syracuse a run here and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair, given what I outlined regarding the Orange defense earlier. Take the over (8*). |