11-03-15 |
Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 201.5 |
Top |
94-82 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@DET to go UNDER the total.
The Pistons are off to an impressive start to the season, boasting a 3-0 record, and limiting opponents to just 91.7 points per game so far. They host the Indiana Pacers tonight, and Indiana is 0-3, and they scored just 73 points in a home loss to Utah on Saturday. Indiana shot 40 percent from the field, and just 4-of-17 from beyond the arc. Paul George has really struggled, averaging 17 points per game while shooting just 35 percent from the field, and he's 2-of-13 from three-point range. These teams have actually trended over at a rate of 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, but the total in all of those games was much lower than it is tonight. The Pacers haven't shown any indication that they can compete with top tier opposition, and they are likely going to struggle against the Piston's 4th ranked defense. The under is 23-9 in the Pacers last 32 versus a team with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-03-15 |
Hawks v. Heat OVER 195 |
Top |
98-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@MIA to go OVER the total.
The Heat are 2-1 coming off a 109-89 home win over the Rockets, and they host the 3-1 Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night. Miami shot 48.8% from the field in the win over Houston, and they hit 9-of-22 from beyond the arc. The Heat did not play well defensively in the first half against the Rockets, surrendering 65 points. The Hawks were involved in a couple of high scoring games to start the season, but have since played a home and home series against Charlotte that failed to reach the total. I expect to see both teams execute on offense here in Miami, and the total looks a little low for a game between two teams of this caliber. Atlanta has gone over the total in five of it's last seven road game, while the Heat have gone over in eight of 11 versus Eastern Conference teams.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-02-15 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 199.5 |
|
69-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NBA play on MEM@GS to go OVER the total. The Grizzlies are coming off back to back wins that featured some uncharacteristically high point totals. They shot 50% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc in a 112-103 win over the Pacers in Indiana, and then they made a whopping nine three-pointers in a 101-91 win over the Brooklyn Nets. While those are impressive numbers for the Grizzlies, it's a far cry from what Steph Curry and the Warriors have been doing offensively.
Curry dropped 53 points on the Pelicans on Saturday, shooting 8-of-14 from three-point range in a 134-120 win at New Orleans. The Warriors made a total of 17 three point buckets in the victory, and they rank 3rd in the NBA shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc this season.
The Grizzlies ranked 2nd overall in opponent's scoring average last season, and they'll probably be one of the best defensive teams in the league this season. So far though they've allowed opponents to average 100 points per game, and that has them ranked in the middle of the pack. It's perhaps a little early in the season to expect any team to bring the kind of intensity on defense we saw when these teams met in last year's playoffs, and I expect to see both teams play pretty loose here at Oracle Arena tonight. The total is hovering around 200, and that seems a little low considering the Warriors are averaging 119 points per game so far.
Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-02-15 |
Bucks v. Nets OVER 196.5 |
Top |
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIL@BKN to go OVER the total.
Two winless teams will face each other in Brooklyn on Monday, when the Nets host the Milwaukee Bucks at the Barclays Center. The Bucks were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season, with an opponent's scoring average of 97.8 points per game. So far this season, they have allowed an average of more than 115 points per game while losing their first three games. The Nets have also been terrible on the defensive side of the ball, giving up over 100 points in all three of their losses. These two teams have combined to score plenty of points in recent meetings, with the total going over the number in five of the last six. They've played four straight overs in Brooklyn, and the Bucks have trended over at a rate of 20-8 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-01-15 |
Mavs v. Lakers UNDER 214 |
Top |
103-93 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DAL@LAL to go UNDER the total.
The Lakers have been on the wrong side of a couple of high scoring games to start the season, losing at home to Minnesota and on the road at Sacramento. They'll likely come into tonight's home game versus Dallas focused on tightening up the defense. These aren't the same Mavs as we've seen in previous seasons, as they lost several high profile players in the off-season. Dirk Nowitzki is an old man, and he is surrounded by a lot less talent. Chandler Parsons has been hampered by a knee injury, and Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews missed the last game with various ailments. Williams is not expected to be ready for tonight's game, but Matthews may be able to go. The Mavs scored just 88 points on 36 percent shooting in the loss to the Clippers, and they shot just 6-of-30 from beyond the arc. The total for tonight's game is astronomically high considering neither team has been shooting the ball very well. Seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams have failed to reach the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-01-15 |
Spurs v. Celtics OVER 200 |
Top |
95-87 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@BOS to go OVER the total.
The Spurs were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season, and they looked the part in a 102-75 home win over the Nets on Friday. They have scored 100+ points in both their games so far, but they surrendered 112 points in a loss to the Thunder in their season opener. Playing a non-conference road game on a Sunday afternoon this early in the season, we shouldn't expect the Spurs to be at the top of their game here in Boston.
The Celtics are 1-1, coming off a pretty ugly loss to Toronto. They'll be all geared up for this game against an elite team from the big bad Western Conference. Boston managed to score 103 points against the Raptors, even though they shot just 37.6 percent from the field. That says something about the pace of their play on offense. The over is 18-8-1 in Celtics last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Spurs are likely going to have a fight on their hands here at the Garden, and I think both teams score 100+.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-31-15 |
Nets v. Grizzlies OVER 190 |
Top |
91-101 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BKN@MEM to go OVER the total. The Memphis Grizzlies bounced back from an Opening Night loss to Cleveland by beating the Pacers in Indiana by a score of 112-103. The Grizzlies shot 50% from the field in the win over the Pacers, and 43.8% from three-point range. They host the Brooklyn Nets tonight, and Brooklyn is coming off back to back losses to San Antonio and Chicago. The Nets gave up 100+ points in both of those games, and they have gone over in five straight when playing on 0 days rest. I think the number looks a little low here so early in the season, especially given that neither team has looked all that sharp defensively. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-31-15 |
Knicks v. Wizards UNDER 205 |
Top |
117-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYK@WAS to go UNDER the total. The Washington Wizards will host the New York Knicks on Saturday night, looking to go 3-0 after picking up wins on the road at Milwaukee and Orlando. The Wizards have won seven straight against the Knicks, going 5-1-1 ATS in those games. Four of the last five meetings between the two teams have gone under the total, and Washington has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last eight when playing on 0 days rest. The Wizards were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last year, allowing opponents to average just 97.8 points per game. The Knicks have scored 100+ points in both their first two games of the season, but they are likely to struggle on offense here in the nation's capital. They've seen the total go under in seven of their last 10 versus teams with a winning record. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-30-15 |
Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 210.5 |
|
95-78 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on MIN@DEN to go UNDER the total.
The Nuggets used to have one of the best home records in the NBA, but that's no longer the case for a team that is undergoing a rebuild. The did shock the Rockets on Opening Night though, winning by a score of 105-85. It was an impressive effort on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, limiting Houston to just 34.5 percent shooting. They host the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Pepsi Center tonight, and I think the total looks a little too high here. The Nuggets were known as a team that was involved in a lot of high scoring games, but under new head coach with a much different roster, that might change. They saw six of their seven pre-season games fail to reach a total of 210 points. The only exception was a 114-103 win over the Warriors at Oracle Arena.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-30-15 |
Nets v. Spurs UNDER 204 |
|
75-102 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on BKN@SA to go UNDER the total.
The Spurs host Brooklyn in their home opener on Friday, and this game likely to be a blowout. The Nets lost their home opener to Chicago, and they really didn't look good at all in that game. Perimeter shooting was a complete disaster, as Brooklyn went 0-for-9 from beyond the arc in the loss to the Bulls. Joe Johnson looked particularly rusty, scoring just 10 points on 4-of-15 shooting. It's going to be tough to break out of a slump on the road in San Antonio, against a Spurs team that ranked 3rd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average last season. These two teams have trended under in recent meetings, failing to go over the total in eight of the last 10. The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in San Antonio, and the under is 12-3-1 in Spurs last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-30-15 |
Wizards v. Bucks OVER 196.5 |
|
118-113 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on WAS@MIL to go OVER the total.
The Bucks didn't look very sharp in an Opening Night loss to the Knicks. They did match New York with nine made three-pointers, but lost by a score of 122-97. They host the Washington Wizards tonight, and Washington needed a bucket at the buzzer to sneak past Orlando by a score of 88-87 in their opening game. These teams have scored plenty of points in recent meetings, with the total going over at a rate of 9-3-1 in the last 13 in the series. Washington has scored at least 100 points in eight of it's last nine versus Milwaukee, and the Wizards have won four of the last five. Washington has gone over the total in six of it's last seven when coming off a win.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-29-15 |
Grizzlies v. Pacers UNDER 188 |
Top |
112-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies sure looked rusty in their home opener, shooting just 35% from the field, and 12% from beyond the arc in a 106-76 loss to Cleveland. They play their second game in as many nights on the road at Indiana on Thursday night, and this is hardly an ideal spot to break out of a shooting slump. The Pacers didn't look much better, shooting just 37% in a loss to Toronto on Wednesday. Paul George was just 4-of-17 from the field scoring 17 points, and he's averaged just 10 points per game since returning from a broken leg. Memphis has done a good job shutting down George, who has averaged just 11.4 points per game on just 35% shooting lifetime versus the Grizzlies. History tells us that this should be a low scoring game, as five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone under, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of the last 14 meetings in Indiana.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-28-15 |
Mavs v. Suns OVER 202.5 |
|
111-95 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on DAL@PHX to go OVER the total.
The Mavericks will open the season on the road in Phoenix, and they are coming off a pretty dismal showing this pre-season. The Mavs lost all seven games, and four of those losses came by a double digit margin. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, going over in five of the last seven in the series. Four of the Mavericks last five visits to Phoenix have resulted in the total going over the number. Tonight's total is much lower than it was in any of those previous meetings, and I expect to see a typical fast paced game. This number looks a little too low.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-28-15 |
Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 205.5 |
Top |
94-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
43 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NO@POR to go UNDER the total.
The Pelicans opened the season on the road in Oakland last night, losing to the defending champion Warriors by a score of 111-95. Even after the two teams combined to score 74 points in the first quarter, they came up well short of the inflated total. They held the Warriors to just 20 points in the second quarter and 17 in the final frame. They have a history of playing low scoring games versus the Blazers, going under in each of the last four meetings. The under trends don't stop there, as the Pelicans have gone under in nine of their last 12 when playing on back to back nights, and Portland has trended under at rate of 23-10-2 in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. This number looks just a little too high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-28-15 |
Cavs v. Grizzlies OVER 188.5 |
Top |
106-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
41 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@MEM to go OVER the total.
The Cavs came up just short in Chicago on opening night, losing 97-95 to the Bulls. While the first half saw both teams combine to score just 86 points, we saw a flurry of scoring in the second half, pushing the total over the number. The Cavs are playing on back to back nights in Memphis tonight, and the Grizzlies have a reputation as a team that plays a lot of low scoring games. We see a really low number here in this game, and I think this early in the season we might not see vintage Memphis defense. We haven't seen these teams struggle offensively in previous meetings, with nine of the last 10 in Memphis going over the total. Going back further, 20 of the last 29 head to head matchups have gone over the listed total. This number looks just a little too low for me.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-28-15 |
Knicks v. Bucks OVER 192 |
Top |
122-97 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
|
his is a 10* play on NYK@MIL to go OVER the total.
The Knicks won four of six during the pre-season, and they scored more than 100 points in three of those four wins. They begin the season on the road in Milwaukee, and these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. Five of he last seven head to head meetings have gone over the listed total, and the total has gone over in five of the Knicks last seven trips to Milwaukee. The Bucks have gone over the total in seven of their last 10 when playing three days rest. The Knicks were one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year, allowing opponents to average over 101 points per game. It's unlikely that has changed over the off-season, and I don't expect them to shut down a solid Milwaukee team at home. The number here looks a little on the low side.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-28-15 |
Jazz v. Pistons OVER 188 |
Top |
87-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
41 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on DET@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Jazz lost four of their final pre-games of the pre-season, and they gave up over 100 points in three of those four losses. They visit the Pistons in their season opener, and Detroit is coming off an upset win over the Hawks in Atlanta last night. The Pistons made a dozen three point shots, out-scoring Atlanta 106-94. Getting right back on the court in their second game in as many nights probably isn't bad thing as they look to remain hot. The Jazz have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last nine trips to Detroit, and the Pistons have trended over at a rate of 9-1-2 in their last 12 home games. The number looks a little low here, and I just don't see either team grinding it out on defense this early in the season.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-28-15 |
Wizards v. Magic UNDER 206 |
|
88-87 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@ORL to go UNDER the total.
The Wizards open the season on the road versus Orlando, and they've won eight straight versus the Magic. The majority of those games were low scoring, with the total going under in six of the last nine. The Wizards failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 16 visits to Orlando, and we could see both teams shaking off a little rust here tonight. Washington was one of the league's best defensive teams last season, ranking 5th in defensive efficiency. The Magic have gone under in five of their last six when playing on at least three days rest. The number here looks a little too high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-27-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
95-111 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NO@GS to go UNDER the total. The defending champions will open the season at home against New Orleans, who they defeated in the first round of last year's playoffs. The Warriors swept that series, but failed to cover in three of the four games, and both games at Oracle Arena.
They went on to face Memphis in the second round, and they won that series in six games. The Grizzlies gave them a scare though, winning two of the first three games. Prior to Game 2, the Warriors held a ceremony to present Steph Curry with the MVP award. The distraction really appeared to hurt the Warriors, who came out flat, and were out-scored 50-39 in the first half. After the 97-90 loss, Curry told the media that the pre-game ceremony may have taken him out of his routine.
We'll see a far more elaborate ceremony here on Opening Night, with the unveiling of the 2015 NBA Championship banner. This might serve as added motivation for the visitors, who should have a lot more to prove here. Anthony Davis is looking to dethrone Curry as the MVP of the league, and he sure looked good against the Warriors in last year's playoffs. The 22 year old averaged 31.5 points per game, shooting 54.5 percent from the field and averaging 11 rebounds.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see history repeat itself here tonight, with the Warriors coming out flat after all the pre-game festivities. The under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings, and still we see an inflated number tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
05-17-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 220 |
|
100-113 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on LAC@HOU to go UNDER the total.
All six games in this series have gone over the total, so it's no surprise that the public is blindly throwing money at the over, despite an enormous number. The opening total for this game was astronomical, and early action pushed it up even higher. Now before this series started, these teams saw the total go under in all four meetings during the regular season. It's not like you can expect either team to ease up on defense in a "winner takes all" Game 7. Then you have a huge question mark surrounding the Rockets leading scorer James Harden, who sat out the fourth quarter of Game 6 with the flu. He's going to play, but he may not be 100% effective. Both teams are going to have to shoot out the lights in order to score more than 220 points, and that's not easy to do under the pressure of a seventh game.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-05-15 |
Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 197.5 |
Top |
90-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Hawks looked like they would run away with Game 1, but all of a sudden they came out in the second half and couldn't make a shot to save their lives. It sure didn't look like it was a case of Washington's defense shutting them down, as they were simply missing open looks. The Hawks led by double digits at halftime (63-53), with both teams pushing the pace of the game. The Hawks won three of four against the Wizards during the regular season, and the only loss came at Washington in a game that they rested their starters. All four games were high scoring affairs, and the total has gone over in seven straight when the Wizards visit Atlanta. I don't think the Wizards can count on another meltdown late in this game, and Atlanta should tie the series here tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-02-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 204 |
|
109-111 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on SA@LAC to go UNDER the total.
The Spurs blew their chance to close out this series at home in Game 6 in San Antonio on Thursday. They'll have one last chance tonight at the Staples Center, and they haven't had too much trouble in L.A. in this series, winning 2-of-3. While Game 5 went over the total, the other two games in L.A. failed to reach the total in regulation (Game 2 went to overtime). The Clippers have seen a trend of low scoring games at the Staples Center, with 10 of their last 14 home games failing to reach the number. We should see both teams playing all out on defense here in this do or die game, and the total is pretty high, well over 200. These teams failed to score 200 points in Games 1, 3, 5, and I don't think either team will concede any easy points tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-29-15 |
Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 190 |
Top |
93-99 |
Loss |
-108 |
22 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on POR@MEM to go UNDER the total. The Grizzlies fumbled in the fourth quarter in Portland in Game 4, blowing a late lead and allowing the Blazers to stay on life support in this series. They head back home to Memphis tonight though, and they've owned the Blazers at the FedEx Forum. Portland has lost eight straight visits to Memphis, and they didn't cover in any of those games. The Grizzlies defense has smothered the Blazers, holding them to an average of just 84 points in Games 1 & 2. The total for tonight's game is higher than it was in both the previous two games in Memphis, despite the fact that the Grizzlies have seen the total go under in 24 of their last 27 home games. History tells us to expect a low scoring affair in Game 5, and I think the Grizzlies will close out the Blazers with their defense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-28-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 205 |
Top |
111-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@LAC to go UNDER the total.
The Clippers shocked the Spurs by evening the series with a win in Game 4 in San Antonio. The series shifts back to the Staples Center, where the Clippers have seen five of their last six fall short of the total. The only exception was Game 2 of this series, and that game would have been an under as well if it wasn't for the overtime period. Both teams and both coach's know that the team that wins tonight is likely going to be the team that advances to the next round, and with so much at stake we can expect to see a tightly contested game with solid defending on both sides. Despite the trend of low scoring games in LA, we see a higher total in tonight's game than in the previous two here at Staples Center.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-25-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers UNDER 189 |
|
115-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on MEM@POR to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies domination of Portland is nothing new, as they've won and covered in 10 of the last 11 meetings. The Blazers have been dealing with a long list of injuries to star players, and don't look like the same team they were when at full strength during the regular season. While I think Memphis may well win Game 3, I think the better bet is actually on the total. Both the first two games of this series fell comfortably below the number, yet the bookmakers haven't budged, as tonight's total his as high as it was in both previous games. Portland doesn't look like a team that can score a lot of points in a hurry, as they've really struggled shooting the ball. Damian Lillard had a terrible Game 1, and he was 0-for-6 from beyond the arc in Game 2. You gotta give credit to the Grizzlies defense, as they've been all over Portland's best players. Memphis has seen 35 of it's last 52 overall go under the total... so what do you expect... they will loosen up here in the playoff? I see no reason not to go back to the well with the under here in Game 3.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
111-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@LAC to go UNDER the total.
The Clippers owned the defending champions at the Staples Center in Game 1, but I seriously doubt they will be able to keep up that pace throughout this series. Coach Popovich will have made adjustments, and his focus will clearly be on slowing down Chris Paul. The Clippers veteran PG was unstoppable in Game 1, scoring 32 points on 13-of-20 shooting. There's no way the Spurs are going to let him do it again, they owned on of the league's best defenses during the regular season, with an opponent's scoring average of 97 points per game (3rd best in the NBA). The Clippers defense was incredible in Game 1, and that's nothing new, they've seen the total go under in six of their last seven overall. These two teams have a long history of playing low scoring games at the Staples Center, with the under cashing in at a rate of 22-8-1 in the last 32 meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-22-15 |
Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189.5 |
Top |
82-97 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on POR@MEM to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies shut down Portland in Game 1, winning by a score of 100-86. The Blazers are going to have a tough time getting a better result here in Game 2, as they've lost five straight, and nine of their last 10 versus Memphis. Damian Lillard shot just 5-of-21 from the field, and 0-for-6 from three point range in Game 1, and the Blazers shot just 33.7% for the game. The total for tonight's game is the same as what we saw in Game 1, despite an overwhelming trend of low scoring games in Memphis. The Grizz have seen the total go under in 23 of their last 26 at FedExForum. With so much at stake here in a playoff game, it would appear even more likely that we'll see another low scoring game. The Grizzlies own the league's best defense, with an opponent's scoring average of 95 points during the regular season. They allowed fewer points than any other playoff team in Game 1, and we'll be counting on another strong defensive effort from Memphis in Game 2.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-20-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 188 |
|
82-91 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on MIL@CHI to go UNDER the total.
The Bulls looked unstoppable in Game 1, particularly star PG Derrick Rose. It seemed to take Milwaukee a while to figure out how to play defense, as the first half was a bit of shootout, with the Bulls taking a 60-51 lead to the locker room at halftime. Once they settled in we saw each team play more defense, as they only combined to score 83 points in the second half. I expect that to carry over here into Game 2, as Jason Kidd knows very well that his team isn't going to be able to beat Chicago in a high scoring game. The Bucks led the league in forced turnovers during the regular season, and they'll look to get back to playing defense in an attempt to get back into this series. Kidd commented after the game: "we're not an offensive team, that's not who we are". We saw five of the previous six meetings in this series go under the total, and I think the over in Game 1 will prove to be the exception rather than the rule moving forward.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
04-19-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189 |
|
86-100 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on POR@MEM to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies and the Blazers are two teams that come into the playoffs on a downward spiral. The Grizzlies slipped all the way to 5th in the West, while the #4 place Blazers lost several key players to various injuries. LaMarcus Aldridge has been playing hurt all year, opting not to have season ending surgery on his thumb. He's expected to play tonight despite a sore foot. The prognosis is not as good for Arron Afflalo and Chris Kaman, who aren't expected to suit up. Wesley Matthews is done for the year, but Nicolas Batum might be able to return from a knee injury. Needless to say, it's going to be challenging for the Blazers, playing a Memphis team that has beaten them in nine of the last 10 meetings. The Grizzlies are well known as a defensive team that plays at a slow pace, and that's why 23 of their last 27 home games have gone under the total. I don't see any reason to expect that to change tonight, as it's normal for teams to tighten up even more in the playoffs.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
03-25-15 |
Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards UNDER 193 |
|
103-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on IND@WAS to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers are coming off back to back high scoring games at home, losing to the Rockets and the Nets. Their last road game was a 95-92 loss to the Cavs in Cleveland, and I think we are likely to see another low scoring tilt tonight as they take on the Wizards in Washington. The Wizards were held to just 76 points in a loss at Golden State on Monday, and they'v scored an average of just 87 points while losing three straight.
The teams have a history of playing low scoring games, but despite what we've seen in previous meetings, the number for tonight's game is five points higher than it was in any of the last 10 meetings. Six of those 10 meetings went under, and nine of those games failed to reach the number listed for tonight's contest.
The Pacers have failed to reach the number in four straight on the road, and seven of their last 10 when playing on one day's rest. The Wizards will have to hope John Wall breaks out of a slump, he's averaging just 13 points on 31.8 percent shooting during this losing skid, and he and backcourt mate Bradley Beal combined to shoot 8-for-27 in Oakland on Monday. Breaking out of a slump against Indiana's 4th ranked defense might not be an easy task.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
03-21-15 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 192.5 |
|
123-111 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on BKN@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers lost to the Cavs in Cleveland last night, but they played a pretty impressive game holding the Cavs under 100 points in a 95-92 loss. They return home tonight to take on the Brooklyn Nets, and it seems likely that they will get right back into the win column. They've won seven of their last nine home games, and the bulk of those have been low scoring tilts. I bet on the under in their most recent home game, and had this to say: "The Pacers don't play a lot of high scoring games, and because of that we usually see a very low total in their games. I expect Indiana to dictate the pace, and grind out a win with their defense. They had won seven straight before losing to the Celtics on Friday, and they've held opponents to an average of just 88.3 points over their last eight home games." Not much has changed just a few days later, and when you consider that the Nets rank near the bottom of the league in scoring, tonight's total appears to be far to high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
03-16-15 |
Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 197 |
|
117-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers don't play a lot of high scoring games, and because of that we usually see a very low total in their games. They host the Raptors tonight, and Toronto is a team that trends in the other direction. With this being a home game for the Pacers, and Toronto playing on back to back nights, I expect Indiana to dictate the pace, and grind out a win with their defense. They had won seven straight before losing to the Celtics on Friday, and they've held opponents to an average of just 88.3 points over their last eight home games. The Pacers have seen the total go under in eight of their last 10 overall, and tonight's number is higher than it was in any of their previous 10 versus Toronto.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
03-14-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 193 |
|
93-89 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on BOS@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers are on a roll, coming into tonight's home meeting with Boston as winners of seven straight, and nine of their last 10. Their success has come mostly due to their defensive prowess, as they've allowed an average of just 89.9 points per game during that span. They had played seven straight unders until they blew out Orlando and needed overtime to get past Milwaukee pushing the total over in their last two. We see a higher total in tonight's game though than we've seen in any of their last six. The Celtics have seen the total go over the number in just one of their last six trips to Indianapolis, and six of their last eight games when playing in a back to back situation. I see no reason to expect anything but another stifling effort from Indiana's defense, resulting in a low scoring victory for the home team.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
03-07-15 |
Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks UNDER 189.5 |
|
92-86 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on IND@NYK to go UNDER the total. The Pacers will play their second game in as many nights in New York against the Knicks. These are two teams heading in very different directions, as Indiana looks to get back to the playoffs a year after finishing first in the Eastern Conference, while the Knicks are focused on rebuilding. This is a big game for the Pacers, who currently occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, but are tied with ninth place Miami on points. Indiana has been on a tear lately, winning seven of it’s last eight overall. The defense has been stellar during that run, holding opponents to an average of just 89 points during that span. One of those victories came against New York, holding the Knicks to just 82 points on 39.5% shooting. New York has lost 10 of it’s last 12 overall, and hasn’t scored 100 points in any of those 10 losses. The two wins during that span both came on the road. Indiana has a history of stifling the Knicks, winning and covering in five of the last six head to head meetings. New York scored an average of just 89.6 points in those games. Given that this is a must win for the visitors, while the home team is just going through the motions, we should see Indiana dominated defensively. The Pacers have played six straight unders, while the Knicks have seen the total go under in four of their last five. Recent meetings between these two teams have been low scoring, going under in three straight and seven of the last 10. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-12-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls OVER 201.5 |
Top |
98-113 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@CHI to go OVER the total.
Few would have predicted that the Cavs would be sitting 12 games out of first in the Eastern Conference in mid January, but it didn't exactly surprise me.
This is what I said before the season started:
"Let's be realistic about LeBron's move to Cleveland. This isn't the first time we've seen a team stacked with free agent stars. The Lakers signed Karl Malone and Gary Payton to play alongside Shaq and Kobe, but a lack of chemistry resulted in a loss to the Pistons in the 2004 Final. The Heat and the Big 3 didn't win the Championship either in their first season together, and it's going to take time for things to happen in Cleveland."
A month later and Cleveland has a chance to head into the All Star break in first place in the Central Division. They trail the Bulls by just a half a game, and they visit Chicago tonight.
Cleveland comes in as winners of 14-of-15, and they've been lighting it up on offense during that span. The Bulls will be without their leading scorer Jimmy Butler, and that leaves them with one less defender to handle LeBron. James has owned the Bulls over the years, averaging over 31 points in his last 17 visits to Chicago.
He scored 36 in an overtime win at the United Center earlier this season.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-27-14 |
Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 193 |
Top |
110-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on IND@BKN to go UNDER the total. The Pacers lost at Detroit on Boxing Day, and it was a rather high scoring affair with the Pistons winning 119-109. Indiana isn't the powerhouse it has been in previous seasons, but the Pacers are still the stingiest team in the league, with an opponent's scoring average of 96.9 points per game.
The Nets also boast a Top 10 defense, allowing just 98.8 points per game. Both teams are among the worst in the league offensively, so it wouldn't be a shock to see them play a low scoring game here in Brooklyn.
The Nets didn't look so sharp defensively against the Celtics, but they normally bounce back with a better effort after allowing an opponent to score over 100. They've played nine straight unders after surrendering 100 points in their previous game.
Six of Brooklyn's last eight home games have failed to reach the total, and I think tonight's number looks a little high all things considered.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-17-14 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 194.5 |
Top |
117-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@SA to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies are coming off a massive home win over the Golden State Warriors last night, and could be set to suffer a let down here in San Antonio just 24 hrs later. Both teams will be short-handed, with Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard out for the Spurs, and Tony Allen likely to be out for the Grizz.
There are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 3rd and 4th respectively in opponent's scoring average. Previous meetings though have seen the total go over in five straight in this series. The total in tonight's contest though is far higher than it was in any of those previous games.
The Grizzlies have been a good under bet when playing in the second game of a back to back, as they've seen seven of their last eight such games fall short of the number.
While it's early in the season, the stakes are quite high: "It's a team that we want to beat really badly," Gasol said. "It's a team that has beaten us a couple of times. We want to go there and beat them. It's not easy."
Expect this to be a gritty defensive battle.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-01-14 |
Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz UNDER 209 |
Top |
103-101 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DEN@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
Denver got off to another terrible start this season, but they've really turned things around in recent weeks. The Nuggets have clawed their way back to .500 with a record of 8-8, and they've won six of seven heading into tonight's game at Utah. One of the reasons for their recent success, has been a more concerted effort on defense.
"Defense wins games and we all know that," Danilo Gallinari said. "We have to keep this formula that we have going, which is keeping teams under 100 points."
The Jazz haven't scored more than 100 points in any of their last seven games, and has lost five straight, three of those coming at home. Utah has averaged just 95.6 points per game, ranking 23rd in the NBA in scoring.
The Nuggets have covered the spread in five of their last seven trips to Salt Lake City, and the Jazz have covered just once in their last eight home games versus a team with a road record below .500.
Only one of Denver's last six visits to Utah has failed to reach the total, but tonight's number is far higher than it was in any of those six games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-28-14 |
Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 191.5 |
Top |
83-98 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ORL@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers have really struggled without Paul George, and their average of 92.3 points per game has them ranked among the lowest scoring teams in the NBA. They remain solid defensively though. and their opponent's scoring average of 95.2 points per game is the 5th best in the league.
Tonight they host the Orlando Magic, a team that isn't much better offensively, and I expect Indiana to shut them down. Orlando has lost three straight, scoring an average of just 87 points in those games.
These two teams have not seen the total go over in any of the previous five head to head meetings, and tonight's number is higher than it was in the last four.
The Pacers have played five straight unders at home versus teams with a losing record, and if we go further back, we see that 19 of Orlando's last 26 visits to Indiana have resulted in the final score falling short of the number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-24-14 |
Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 200.5 |
Top |
74-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ORL@CLE to go OVER the total.
The Cavs have not lived up to all the hype, and after four straight losses, LeBron has labeled his team as "fragile". They will host the Orlando Magic tonight, and this seems like a good spot for this struggling Cavs team to break out of a funk. Still, they are asked to cover way too many points. Neither of these two teams have been very sharp defensively, and we could see plenty of points tonight. The Magic have actually been playing well of late, winning their last two road games, and scoring over 100 points in both of those games. We've seen flashes of magic from LeBron and the Cavs, but they haven't really clicked. It still should just be a matter of time.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-23-14 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 198 |
Top |
91-107 |
Push |
0 |
16 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAC@MEM to go UNDER the total.
The L.A. Clippers go by the nickname "Lob City". and they score plenty of buckets averaging over 103 points per game. They might find buckets a little hard to come by here in the Music City though, as Zack Randolph and Marc Gasol don't make a habit of giving up easy buckets.
The Grizzlies have caused plenty of problems for the Clippers in recent seasons, winning seven of the last eight meetings. Seven of the last nine in this series have gone over the total, but not one of those games saw a total as high as the number for tonights game.
Memphis ranks 3rd in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 93 points per game, and they are looking to protect their perfect 7-0 home record.
The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Memphis, and if the Grizzlies are able to dictate the style of play, we should see another low scoring tilt in the Music City.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-14 |
Phoenix Suns v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 197 |
Top |
106-83 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHX@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Suns like to play an up-tempo style, and they are one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA. They are on the road at Indiana tonight though, and the Pacers are still pretty good on defense. Indiana is struggling without Paul George, but their defense has allowed opponents to average just 93 points per game (4th in the NBA).
The Pacers are coming off an 88-86 home win over the Hornets on Wednesday, and none of their seven home games have seen enough points to go over tonight's total. They are normally able to slow the pace at home, even against the better teams in the league. Four of their last five home games versus a team with a winning record have gone under the total.
The Suns are also playing their second game in as many nights against a well rested Pacers team, and they lost both of their previous games in back to back situations.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-14-14 |
Denver Nuggets v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 195 |
Top |
108-87 |
Push |
0 |
23 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on DEN@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Denver Nuggets have just one win so far this season, and one of the reasons for their struggles would be their poor play defensively. Denver ranks 29th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing 111 points per game. They are coming off a disastrous home loss to Portland, where they surrendered 84 points in the first half.
I wouldn't expect to see so many points scored in Indiana tonight, the Pacers simply don't like to play a high tempo game. With a defense that ranks 3rd overall allowing just 92 points per game, they don't normally have to score 100 points to win games.
The Nuggets don't show any signs of being good enough on offense to pose many problems for the Pacers, so Indiana should be able to dictate tempo on it's home court.
The Pacers have seen the total go over in six of their last nine overall, but only one of those nine games saw enough points to go over tonight's number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-14-14 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic OVER 195 |
Top |
85-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on MIL@ORL to go OVER the total.
Here we are just eight games into the season, and the Milwaukee Bucks rank 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. If you look at their schedule so far, you will see that their wins have come at home to the likes of Philly, OKC and Memphis, and on the road at Indiana.
Tonight they play on the road against an Orlando team that has scored an average of 99 points while going 3-2 over it's last five games. The Magic aren't exactly known for their defense, as they've allowed opponents to average over 100 points per game so far.
Six of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone over the number, and tonight's total is lower than it was in any of those contests. The Bucks have played seven straight overs on the road versus teams with a losing record.
Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-12-14 |
Orlando Magic v. New York Knicks UNDER 190.5 |
Top |
97-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ORL@NYK to go UNDER the total.
The Orlando Magic played last night in Toronto, and they jumped out to a good start, out-scoring the Raptors 32-24 in the 1st quarter. They held the lead all the way to the 4th quarter, but collapsed in the final frame, losing 104-100. The Magic now play their second game in as many nights on the road in New York, and I don't fancy their chances of getting a positive result here.
The Knicks are in no position to take the visitors lightly, as they've had their own struggles. New York ranks dead last in the NBA in scoring, and Carmelo Anthony comes in shooting just 33.9% during a five game losing skid. They couldn't ask for a better opponent though as they look to turn things around.
The Magic have failed to cover while losing four straight trips to New York, and they are just 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Knicks overall. Playing the back end of a back to back off such a tough loss looks like a spot where the visitors might lay down.
Orlando has seen the total go under in 10 of it's last 11 road games versus a team with a losing record, and these two teams should struggle to put up enough points to go over a relatively high number tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-11-14 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 197.5 |
Top |
102-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAL@MEM to go UNDER the total.
The Lakers finally got that elusive first "W", but nobody expects that success to carry over as they get ready to face the Grizzlies in Memphis Tuesday. The Grizzlies defense boasts an opponent's scoring average of just 87.7 points per game, easily the best in the NBA.
They need to be good on defense, because their own offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Grizz only average 93 points per game, so needless to say, they don't win many high scoring games.
Memphis suffered it's first loss of the season on the road at Milwaukee on Saturday, shooting a dreadful 35.4% from the field. We can expect the Grizzlies to get back on track at home tonight, playing their brand of basketball.
Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone under the total, and tonight's number looks a little high all things considered.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-07-14 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Charlotte Hornets UNDER 191 |
Top |
119-122 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@CHA to go UNDER the total.
The Hornets are coming off a 96-89 home win over the Miami Heat. They've won 2-of-3 at home so far, and they host the Atlanta Hawks tonight. The Hawks are 0-2 on the road so far, but they gave the Spurs a run for their money on Wednesday, losing 94-92.
The Hornets rank 4th in the NBA in opponents scoring average, allowing an average of just 92.4 points per game. Both these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring, averaging well below 100 points per game, and I expect to see a low scoring affair here in Charlotte tonight. The last two meetings between these teams have both gone under, and the Hornets have a long standing under trend at home against teams with a losing record. Only one of Charlotte's last 16 home games versus a sub .400 team has gone over the total.
Atlanta likes to shoot the three-ball, but Charlotte ranks among the league's best in perimeter defense. They allow an average of fewer than six three-pointer per game, and they held the Heat to just 4-of-22 from beyond the arc on Wednesday.
Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-07-14 |
Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 188.5 |
Top |
118-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHI@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Bulls are on the road in Philly tonight, and they could be without Derrick Rose. They probably won't need him to beat the Sixers, a team that has lost five straight to start the season. The Sixers have enough trouble scoring at the best of times, averaging just 90 points per game (28th in the NBA).
The Bulls are coming off a 95-86 win on the road in Milwaukee Wednesday, and I expect a similar scoreline tonight. We've certainly seen a trend of low scoring games between these two teams, with seven of the last 10 meetings falling short of the number.
Philly has only seen the total go over in one of it's last 13 versus teams with a .600 or better winning percentage. The Sixers aren't likely to be very successful scoring on a Chicago defense that ranks first in the NBA in opponent's field goal percentage (40.1%).
Joakim Noah will not play, but I think it would be a mistake to expect Philly to pose much of a threat in his absence.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-04-14 |
Charlotte Hornets v. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 189.5 |
Top |
91-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHA@NO to go UNDER the total. The New Orleans Pelicans will be playing their third game in four nights, and second in as many nights when they host Charlotte tonight. Both teams rank among the league's best in opponent's scoring average, and I think we should see a tight defense game here.
The Pelicans are owning the glass, leading the league with 52.7 RPG. Anthony Davis is doing it all, leading the team in scoring and rebounding, and leading the NBA in blocks.
Keep in mind I placed a cheeky little bet on Davis to win the Defensive Player of the Year at 8-1 odds. He led the league in blocks last year, and I think he’s likely to do it again this season.
Five of the last eight in this series have gone under, and the total in tonight's game is higher than it was in six of those games. The Pelicans are tied with Denver for the lowest shooting percentage in the NBA, and the Hornets haven't been much better.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-31-14 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 |
Top |
97-89 |
Loss |
-115 |
17 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies will be in Indiana to take on the Pacers tonight, in a matchup between two very defensively solid teams. Last season saw the Pacers finish 2nd in the league with an opponent scoring average of 92.3 points per game. The Grizz weren't far behind, ranking 3rd allowing 94.6 points per game.
These teams have seen the total go under in five straight meetings, and the total in tonight's contest is higher than it was in any of those games. Going back further, they have seen the total go under in eight of the last 10, and five of six in Indiana.
The loss of Paul George is certainly not going to help the Pacers offense, and while they scored over 100 points in their opener, you have to keep in mind they were playing a Sixers team that finished with a 19-63 record a year ago. The Grizzlies will come in with a mindset of improving their defense after allowing over 100 points in their opener. Tony Allen expressed his concerns in a post-game interview: "We have a lot of improving to do -- obviously executing on the defensive end," Allen said. "I felt there were a lot of times we could have closed them out and increased the lead. I thought we let our guard down."First game is out of the way, now we can look at film and see ways we can improve." Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
06-15-14 |
Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 195 |
Top |
87-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals bats exploded for nine runs in a blowout win over Chicago Saturday, and I expect to see more of the same here on Sunday. Big Game James will be on the hill for the visitors, coming in on top form, while the Sox hand the ball to a struggling Andre Rienzo.
Shields (7-3, 3.44 ERA) allowed a single run on six hits, fanning eight in six innings in a home win over the Yankees his last time out. He boasts a 4-1 record in nine starts on the road this season, and he's had success in previous trips to Chicago. James is 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA in five starts at Cellular Field since 2011.
Rienzo (4-3, 5.25 ERA) is coming off three straight losses, and he surrendered seven runs on nine hits, failing to get out of the fourth inning in a loss to the Angels his last time out.
The White Sox bullpen surrendered six runs in yesterday's loss, and with Rienzo unlikely to log a lot of innings, Chicago could be forced to go to the bullpen early here this afternoon.
Take KC
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-12-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 197 |
Top |
107-86 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@MIA to go UNDER the total.
I bet the under in Game 3, falling victim to an anomaly the likes we aren't likely to see again for another century. While all the talk after the Spurs victory centers around their record smashing shooting percentage in the first half (75.8%), they also did some amazing things defensively, holding the Heat to just 92 points.
We can't expect San Antonio to hit their shots at such a torrid pace in this game, but duplicating their defensive intensity is much more achievable task.
Here are my comments prior to Game 3: The series goes back to South Beach tied at 1-1, and we should see a tighter game with points being hard to come by in Miami. We've seen the total come up short of the listed number in 14 of the last 19 meetings between these two teams in Miami. They played four of seven games in Miami in last years Finals, and only one of those saw 200 points scored. That game was a 103-100 OT victory for the Heat in Game 6.
I liked the under in Game 3, but I LOVE IT in Game 4.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-10-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 198.5 |
Top |
111-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
34 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@MIA to go UNDER the total.
LeBron James executed his revenge scoring 35 points in a Game 2 victory in San Antonio. The series goes back to South Beach tied at 1-1, and we should see a tighter game with points being hard to come by in Game 3.
We've seen the total come up short of the listed number in 14 of the last 19 meetings between these two teams in Miami. They played four of seven games in Miami in last years Finals, and only one of those saw 200 points scored. That game was a 103-100 OT victory for the Heat in Game 6.
Both teams elevated the defensive intensity in Game 2, and the Spurs cooled off significantly shooting just 43.9 %. We can expect more of the same here in Miami.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
06-05-14 |
Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 |
Top |
95-110 |
Loss |
-115 |
42 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@SA to go UNDER the total.
The Spurs were lighting it up offensively in San Antonio in their series versus Oklahoma City, but we should expect a slower pace in their Finals rematch versus Miami.
These teams scored just 180 points in Game 1 of last year's NBA Final, and it wasn't until Game 4 that they saw a game combine for 200 total points. The trend of low scoring games goes way back, with 10 of the last 15 meetings in San Antonio going under, and 25 of the last 35 meetings overall falling short of the total.
The Heat and Spurs rank 5th and 6th respectively in opponent's scoring average, so these are two elite teams that know how to execute defensively.
The Heat lost Game 1 last year, and they needed overtime to avoid losing in Game 6. The Spurs looked like the better team for much of the series, but in the end they lost Game 7 in Miami. Things are different this year, as it's the Spurs that have home court, expect them to take full advantage here in Game 1.
Take UNDER
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-31-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206 |
Top |
112-107 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@OKC to go OVER the total.
The Spurs have dominated all three of their home games in this series, scoring an average of 117 points. They had trouble scoring in Oklahoma City in Games 3 & 4, and the return of Serge Ibaka likely factored into that.
Gregg Popovich might have found an answer in Game 5: "The adjustments that the coaches made were very efficient tonight," Diaw said after the game. "We tried to space the floor a little more. We came back to the way we were aggressive in the first two games. Going from good to great. That's what Pop has asked all year, that's what we've been doing all year."
The Spurs shot out the lights on Thursday, hitting 51.3% from the field, and 13-of-26 from three point range. I wouldn't be expecting Oklahoma City to cruise to another comfortable victory at home tonight, as the Spurs should be a little more competitive here as they look to close out the series.
We saw the total go under in each of the previous two games in Oklahoma City, and the result is that the number has come down a little here in Game 6. Don't be surprised to see both teams score 100+, pushing the total over the number.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-30-14 |
Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat OVER 182.5 |
Top |
92-117 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@MIA to go OVER the total.
The Pacers will look to avoid elimination in Game 6 of the East Final in Miami tonight, and they haven't had any success away from home in this series. The Heat won by double digits in both Games 3 & 4, and each of those games went over the total.
We shouldn't be surprised to see another high scoring affair here in tonight's game, with the Pacers big guns coming firing on all cylinders. Paul George scored 37 points on 15-of-18 shooting in the last game, his best performance since dropping 39 points on the Wizards.
These two teams have played four straight overs in Miami, and the Heat have seen the total go over the number in six of their last seven home games. The total in tonight's game is lower that it was in all seven of those games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-27-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 207.5 |
Top |
92-105 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@OKC to go OVER the total.
We saw both teams light up the scoreboard in the first half of Game 3, but the pace slowed in the second half, and the total fell just below the number. Serge Ibaka was able to make an impact, with four blocked shots and seven rebounds in 30 minutes.
It was always going to be tough for the Spurs to win Game 3, but I expect San Antonio to come out with more fight for Game 4.
I said prior to Game 3: "The Spurs have seen the total go over in seven of their last 10 overall, and the number has come down quite a bit from 212 in Game 2 in San Antonio. I expect both teams to score 100+, it should be an old fashioned barn burner."
I feel the same about tonight's Game 4.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-25-14 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 208 |
Top |
97-106 |
Loss |
-115 |
30 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@OKC to go OVER the total.
We saw these teams light up the scoreboard in Game 1, combining for 227 points. The Spurs offense wasn't slowed much in Game 2, but the Thunder were unable to keep up, losing by 35 points.
A little home cookin' will surely help Durant and the Thunder make tonight's game more competitive, but it might not be enough against a Spurs team that was dominant on the road this year, and has plenty of scoring depth.
Rumors are swirling about a miracle return for Serge Ibaka, but even if the Thunder's shot blocking specialist is able to play, he can't guard everybody. Danny Green is absolutely on fire from beyond the arc, hitting a sick 15-of-21 over the last three games.
The Spurs have seen the total go over in seven of their last 10 overall, and the number has come down quite a bit from 212 in Game 2 in San Antonio.
I expect both teams to score 100+, it should be an old fashioned barn burner.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-24-14 |
Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat OVER 182 |
Top |
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@MIA to go OVER the total.
So far in this series we have seen two totally different games. The Pacers taking Game 1 at home in a high scoring affair, then the Heat battling back to tie the series with a hard fought victory in a low scoring tilt in Game 2.
We could see more scoring as this series shifts to Miami, as these teams have pushed the total in six of the last eight games at American Airlines Arena. The Heat saw the total go over in four of their five home games in these playoffs. The total in tonight's game is much lower than it was in any of those five games.
The Pacers have scored 90+ points in four of their last five on the road in these playoffs. Even after being bet up a few points from where it opened, I still think this number is far too low.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-21-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 212 |
Top |
77-112 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total.
We saw plenty of scoring in Game 1 of this series, and not much defense. The Spurs went on to win easily by a score of 122-105. The result of such a high scoring affair in the opener is an astronomically high number for the total in Game 2.
I expect to see the pace to slow a little as each team makes adjustments on defense. Prior to this series, these teams had seen six of the last eight games go under the total. The total in all of those game was far lower than it is for tonight's game.
The Spurs shot 57.5% from the field in Game 1, and they hit 9-of-17 from beyond the arc. That's going to be tough to duplicate here tonight, and the Thunder will likely have a better defensive game plan.
With such a high number, it's not going to take much to fall short. A few missed free throws, one off night for a star player on either team.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-20-14 |
Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 184 |
Top |
87-83 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@IND to go UNDER the total.
Game 1 of this series saw both teams shoot better than 50%, and that's unlikely to continue as this series moves forward. We saw a high scoring game in Indiana in the series opener versus Washington, and then in Game 2 the Pacers won by a score of 86-82.
It's Indiana that is known for strong defense, ranking second overall with an opponent scoring average of just 92.3 points. The Heat aren't far behind, as they ranked 5th during the regular season.
Miami is going to need a better effort defensively tonight, and you can bet that LeBron and company will deliver.
"We cleaned a lot of things up today and we're ready for tomorrow," James said. "You just go in with the mindset that it's a must-win and we go at it tomorrow."
The Pacers lost Game 5 at home in their series versus Washington, shooting just 39 % from the field. We haven't seen them win consecutive home games yet in these playoffs, and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-15-14 |
Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards OVER 180 |
Top |
93-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@WAS to go OVER the total.
After the Pacers came from behind to stun the Wizards in Game 4, most would have expected them to close out the series in Game 5 at home. Not me!
Here is what I said prior to Game 5:
"At this point it's difficult to trust the Pacers to come out and battle hard for a full four quarters, so don't be surprised if they allow Washington to make things interesting tonight. Paul George had a playoff career high 39 points on 12-of-20 shooting, and the Pacers were 10-of-22 from three point range on Sunday. The bookmakers aren't expecting to see a lot of offense here tonight, with an astronomically low total. These teams have trended toward low scoring games, but while six of the last 10 games have gone under, the total in all of those games was much higher than tonight's number"
I still don't trust the Pacers, and I think Washington is going to come out with a lot of energy in the first half tonight. The Wizards have taken a significant lead to the locker room at the half in four of the five games so far. The one exception was in Game 3 when they trailed by just one point.
I warned on Tuesday that while these teams have played a lot of low scoring games, they've gone over 180 points in eight of their last 10 head to head meetings
Take the OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-13-14 |
WASHINGTON GM5 v. INDIANA GM5 OVER 180.5 |
Top |
102-79 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@IND to go OVER.
The Pacers return home looking to close out this series after shocking the Wizards with a comeback win in Game 4. Prior to the game I said the following:
"The Pacers have dominated the last two games in this series, but I think it's a little premature to say that everything is fine and dandy with this team. We saw them dominate the final two games against Atlanta, only to go on to lose Game 1 of this series."
Sure enough, Indiana came out flat, getting blown out in the first half on Sunday. At this point it's difficult to trust the Pacers to come out and battle hard for a full four quarters, so don't be surprised if they allow Washington to make things interesting tonight.
Paul George had a playoff career high 39 points on 12-of-20 shooting, and the Pacers were 10-of-22 from three point range on Sunday. The bookmakers aren't expecting to see a lot of offense here tonight, with an astronomically low total.
These teams have trended toward low scoring games, but while six of the last 10 games have gone under, the total in all of those games was much higher than tonight's number.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-11-14 |
INDIANA GM4 v. WASHINGTON GM4 OVER 180 |
Top |
95-92 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@WAS to go OVER the total.
The Pacers have dominated the last two games in this series, but I think it's a little premature to say that everything is fine and dandy with this team. We saw them dominate the final two games against Atlanta, only to go on to lose Game 1 of this series.
The Wizards couldn't make a shot to save their life in Game 3, not even from the free throw line. Washington shot just 32.9% from the field, and 11-of-21 from the charity stripe.
I expect the Wizards to turn things around here in Game 4, with their backs against the wall in a must win game. As poorly as the Wizards played on Friday, they trailed by just a single point at halftime. They will know they need a strong start tonight, and I expect a big push in the early going from the home side.
After the last two game fell short of the total, the listed number here is far lower than it has been in any of the previous three games in this series. In fact it's lower than it has been in nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams. The one time we did see a total this low, the game ended up going over.
With this number being so low, it won't take much offense to get us a cover.
Take OVER
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-10-14 |
MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 UNDER 189 |
Top |
90-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@BKN to go UNDER (1st Half)
I bet the over in Game 1, and Miami piled on the points in the second half winning 107-86. I took the Heat in game 2, and again it was a slow start and strong finish for Miami. As this series shifts to Brooklyn for Game 3, I think we should see both teams tighten up the defense, especially in the first half.
The Heat have dominated their opponents with strong defense since the beginning of these playoffs, allowing an average of less than 90 points per game. They will likely get a good run for their money here in Game 3 in Brooklyn, as the Nets are going to be a desperate group.
Deron Williams was 0-for-9, failing to score a single point in Game 2. The Nets shot just 42.3% on the night, and it's not going to be easy to improve on that number here.
These two teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last nine meetings in this series.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-09-14 |
Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards UNDER 184 |
Top |
85-63 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@WAS UNDER (1st Half)
While Roy Hibbert's offensive outburst in Game 2 is good news for Pacers fans, it might also be a good indication that we will see a low scoring game in Game 3.
Paul George has been pretty quiet in this series, shooting just 9-of-30 for 29 points so far. It would make sense for the Pacers to look to feed Hibbert in the post, going back to what brought them success in Game 2. If that's the case, it should be a win/win situation for under bettors.
I bet the over in Game 1, and was fortunate to get a late burst of points at the end, pushing the total over the very low number. Tonight's total is a little higher, and I think we might not see points come quite as easy in this game, especially in the first half.
Four of the last five games between these teams has fallen short of the total.
Take UNDER (1/H)
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-07-14 |
Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 |
Top |
82-86 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on WAS@IND to go UNDER (1st Half).
At this point, we shouldn't be surprised to see the Pacers in another hole, down 0-1 to the Wizards. Most expect Indiana to respond with a much better effort in Game 2, but while I think they will deliver an improved performance, I'm not convinced that it will be enough.
With their backs against the wall, I'm sure they will come up big defensively, but the offense might be a tougher fix. Paul George was just 4-of-17 shooting in Game 1, and Roy Hibbert was 0-for-2 with no points and no rebounds.
I bet the over in Game 1, and was fortunate to get a late burst of points at the end, pushing the total over the very low number. Tonight's total is a little higher, and I think we might not see points come quite as easy in this game, especially in the first half.
These teams have seen the total go under in five of the last six meetings in Indiana.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-06-14 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat OVER 191 |
Top |
86-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BKN@MIA to go OVER the total.
The Nets will face the Heat in Miami in Game 1, and Brooklyn took all four meetings in the regular season series. They scored 100+ points in two of those four contests.
They saw the total go over the number in three of four road games in the first round at Toronto, and both these teams trended toward the over during the regular season.
The Heat averaged over 100 points per game in their series versus Charlotte, and LeBron has scored 30+ in each of his last three games.
Tonight's number is a little on the low side, and I don't think these two teams will have much trouble scoring enough points to push the total over.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-05-14 |
Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers OVER 183 |
Top |
102-96 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@IND to go OVER the total.
We see a very low number here in Game 1 in Indiana, as everyone is expecting this series to be a defensive battle. The Pacers did rank 2nd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average in the regular season, but they haven't looked like themselves for over a month now.
In four home games in the first round, they allowed Atlanta to go over 100 points twice. Now they dug deep and came through with an impressive effort in Game 7, limiting the Hawks to just 80 points. It would be no surprise to see them suffer a slight let down here in Game 1 of a new series.
They didn't get a lot of time to prepare for Washington, and fatigue could be a factor against a well rested Wizards team.
In their first round series, the Wizards went into Chicago and dropped 100+ points on the Bulls in both Games 1 & 2. That's pretty impressive considering Chicago was the only team ranked better than the Pacers defensively.
I think a competitive game will result in enough points to push a very low total over the number.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-03-14 |
MEMPHIS GM7 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 OVER 184.5 |
Top |
109-120 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 19 m |
Show
|
|
03-22-14 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 196 |
Top |
81-91 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@CHI to go UNDER the total. The Sixers are desperately trying to avoid setting a new record for futility, as they have now lost 23 straight. They've been fighting hard in recent games though, and playing much better defense. They came up just short against the Knicks last night, losing by a single point (93-92). Prior to that they lost 102-94 to the Bulls, who they will meet tonight in Chicago. With both teams playing in a back to back situation, I'm expecting the offense to suffer. Scoring in Chicago is tough at the best of times, as the Bulls allow an average of just over 92 points per game. The good news for Philly is, the Bulls also rank last in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 93 points per game. We've seen these teams play low scoring games in previous meetings, with the under cashing in a winning ticket in seven of the last 10. The total for tonight's game is awful high when you take all this into consideration. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-26-14 |
Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 223 |
Top |
93-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on HOU@LAC to go UNDER the total.
Two of the highest scoring teams face off tonight in L.A., and we saw the total open at 220. Money has poured in on the over, despite the astronomical number, driving it up even higher. Houston is playing it's second game in as many night's, and I am not sure we can count on the Rockets to score 110+ points against a Clippers team that defends well, and has one of the better home records in the NBA. I'm taking the UNDER due to the high number.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-24-14 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 206 |
Top |
123-110 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAC@NO to go OVER the total.
The Clippers are coming off a win over the Thunder in a shootout in OKC on Sunday. They won by a score of 125-117, and they have now seen seven of their last eight games go over the total.
They play their second game in as many nights in New Orleans tonight, and they'll face a Pelicans team that has lost five of it's last six. New Orleans has been hit hard by the injury bug, without three top players in Jrue Holliday, Josh Smith and Ryan Anderson.
Previous meetings have tended to be high scoring games, with 11 of the last 14 meetings in New Orleans going over the total. The Clippers have also won six of the last seven outright, and they are just a small favorite as the road team here tonight.
I expect L.A. to continue scoring buckets at a frantic pace, winning in another high scoring affair.
Take the Over.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-21-14 |
Denver Nuggets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 192.5 |
Top |
89-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
10*
|
02-12-14 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 200 |
Top |
83-104 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@TOR to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors are coming off a home win over the Pelicans, and bettors had to settle for a push in that game. They would win 108-101 as a seven point favorite, and tonight they are favored by a similar margin.
They welcome the Atlanta Hawks to town, and Toronto may be catching the Hawks at a good time. Atlanta has lost four straight, and they have managed to score an average of just 86.5 points during that span.
Fatigue could also be a factor, as the Hawks played last night in Chicago, losing to the Bulls by a score of 100-85. The Raptors are 10-3 over their last 13 home games, and they rank in the top 5 in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing an average of just 97.1 points per game.
Toronto is 6-1-1 ATS in it's last eight home games versus teams with a losing road record, and Atlanta is a team that really struggles on the road. Playing the final game before the All Star break is also a spot where the road team might not be motivated to give 100%.
The total for tonight's game is higher than it has been in each of the last seven meetings between these two teams, and the way the Hawks have played recently, I don't expect them to score enough points to reach such a high number.
Take the Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-10-14 |
Denver Nuggets v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 199 |
Top |
80-119 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DEN@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers lost on the road in Orlando last night by a score of 93-92, but they are back home tonight to take on Denver. The Nuggets are coming off back to back losses on the road in New York and Detroit.
It won't get any easier for Denver tonight, as they will be without starting PG Ty Lawson, who is sidelined with a rib injury. Their injury woes don't end there, as Andre Miller, Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee are already on the IR.
Denver seems destined to struggle offensively, playing the league's top defense on the road with such a depleted lineup. The opening total for this game is a little higher than we would normally see for a Pacers game, and that's likely because the Nuggets have trended toward high scoring games.
The Pacers have seen the total go under at a rate of 6-1-1 in their last eight versus teams with a losing record. We should see the Pacers grind out another win here at home in a low scoring game.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-09-14 |
Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic OVER 188.5 |
Top |
92-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
10*
|
01-31-14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 198 |
Top |
120-95 |
Win
|
102 |
20 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKC@BKN to go OVER the total.
The Thunder have won nine straight, including a win over the Heat in Miami on Wednesday. Kevin Durant's 30+ points streak now sits at 12 games, and he's hoping 13 will be his lucky number tonight in Brooklyn. Oklahoma City has averaged 109 points per game during their recent winning streak, covering the spread in eight of those nine contests.
The Nets saw a five game winning streak come to an end when they lost at home to Toronto on Monday by a score of 104-103. They should have their hands full with Durant and the Thunder tonight, as according to Lebron James: "Individually, he can't be stopped by any one-on-one player," James said. "There's nobody that can guard him one-on-one." That appeared to be the case in Miami when the Thunder handed James and the defending champs a decisive 112-95 defeat Wednesday night.
The way Durant is playing, I think you'd have to really think twice about betting against him any way, shape or form. I think KD will get his share of points, and this game will be a high scoring affair.
Take the Over.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-14-14 |
Sacramento Kings v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 194 |
Top |
92-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
28 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SAC@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Sacramento Kings are coming off a victory at home over the Cavs, in the most one-sided game in the NBA so far this season. The Kings won by a 44 point margin (124-80).
The Kings have to feeling good about themselves after winning three in a row, but they are in a tough spot tonight. The Pacers are the best home team in the NBA, with a record of 18-1 in Indiana.
The Kings are just 4-9 on the road, and while they have played better lately, this appears to be a let down spot after such a lopsided victory in their last game.
The Pacers lead the league in opponent scoring average, allowing an average of just 87.9 point per game. Nine of their last 10 games has gone under, and the total in tonight's game is higher than it was in most of those previous games.
Don't be surprised to see another dominant home win for the Pacers, as the Kings are likely to come out flat.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-10-14 |
Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 186.5 |
Top |
66-93 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Wizards have been terrible at the Verizon Center lately, but for some reason they have been unstoppable on the road. Washington has won seven of it's last eight away games, but they are up against the Pacers tonight, who own the league's best home record.
Indiana is getting it done with the NBA's best defense, with an opponent scoring average of just 88.6 points per game. They don't need to score a lot when they keep the opposition below 90 points, and that's a good thing, because the Pacers offense ranks among the league's worst, averaging well below 100 points per game.
The offense suffered in Atlanta with Lance Stephenson sitting out with a sore knee, and the Pacers assists leader is not expected to return tonight.
The Pacers have won seven of the last eight meetings with Washington, but the Wizards have covered the points five times during that span. Five of those eight games also landed below the number, which was lower than tonight's total in each of the last three meetings in Indianapolis.
I expect to see the Pacers add to their home wins total, but I think it's asking a little much to for these teams to reach the listed total.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-08-14 |
Detroit Pistons v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 198 |
Top |
91-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes.
It was almost exactly a year ago that I published a piece discussing the incredible ATS trends of the Pac-12's Utah Utes. A year later and nothing has changed, Utah is still cashing tickets at an amazing clip.
The Utes are 7-1-1 ATS this year, and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games. Despite the fact that they mopped the floor with Oregon State, and came very close to upsetting the Oregon Ducks, they are actually an underdog here in Washington tonight.
The Huskies are a scrappy team, and I like backing them in the role of an underdog. I did just that when they played Arizona on Saturday, and they held their own, losing 71-62 to the # ranked Wildcats, easily covering a 20-point spread.
The Utes came very close to upsetting the Wildcats in Arizona last year, but a controversial call took the potential game-winning shot off the board, and Arizona went on to win in OT. The didn't have much trouble with the Huskies in Washington though, cruising to a 74-65 win as an 11 point dog.
The Utes are 12-2, and their two losses have both come by just two points. The Huskies are just 2-2 at home, and they have covered the points once in their last eight home games.
Take Utah.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-07-14 |
Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 189.5 |
Top |
79-86 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total.
This is a revenge match for the Pacers, after losing to the Toronto last week in Canada. The Raptors held the Pacers to just 82 points in that game, and I cashed in a winner on the under there.
This figures to be another low scoring affair, as Toronto's defense has been stellar of late. They have only allowed over 100 points once in their last eight games, the exception was a 102-97 loss to the defending champions in Miami on Sunday.
The Raptors rank 7th in the NBA in opponent scoring average, allowing just 97.5 points per game so far. The Pacers though are the league's best defensive team, and that's especially true in Indiana.
The Pacers have held opponents to fewer than 100 points in nine straight games, seven of those games went under. Toronto has also been a good bet to go under lately, failing to reach the total in four straight. These teams have seen the total go under in five of their last six meetings.
Such trends can't always be trusted of course, but what raises an eyebrow here is that the books seemingly have failed to adjust, as the total here tonight, is actually higher than the average number over the past 10 meetings.
Chances are, two of the best defensive teams in the NBA are going to struggle to reach such a number.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-04-14 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 190 |
Top |
84-91 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ATL@CHI to go UNDER the total.
The Hawks are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Golden State, losing on the final shot of the game by a score of 101-100 on their home floor. Now they turn around and play a back to back on the road in Chicago.
Don't expect to see a lot of offense in this game, as the Bulls are still one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially at home. Chicago has seen seven of it's last 10 game overall go under the total, and five straight against teams with a winning record.
Eight of the last nine head to head meetings between these teams has seen the total go under, yet we see a total that seems fairly high for this game.
With the Hawks in a let down spot, playing on consecutive nights, I don't expect them to be firing on all cylinders offensively against this elite Chicago defense.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-03-14 |
Toronto Raptors v. Washington Wizards UNDER 195 |
Top |
101-88 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on TOR@WASH to go UNDER the total.
I took the under in the Raptors last game, an upset win over the Indiana Pacers. Toronto won that game by a score of 95-82. The victory was their fourth in a row, and they have allowed an average of just 86 points in those games.
The Wizards have also trended toward low scoring games recently, averaging 92 points while losing four of five home games.
Toronto is also among the NBA's best defensive teams, allowing opponents fewer than 100 points per game, ranking 9th in the NBA in opponent scoring average.
Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone under, and the total in tonight's game is at least as high as it was in any of those previous meetings.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-01-14 |
Indiana Pacers v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 193 |
Top |
82-95 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on IND@TOR to go UNDER the total.
The Pacers are the best defensive team in the NBA, holding opponents to an average of just 89 points per game. That likely comes as no surprise, but you might be surprised to learn that Toronto is also among the NBA's best defensive teams, allowing opponents fewer than 100 points per game.
Indiana won at home last night by a score of 91-76 over the Cavaliers, and they be playing on the back end of a back to back tonight in Toronto. These teams have played low scoring games in recent meetings, with the total going under in seven of the last 10.
Strangely, you have a total for tonight's game that is higher than it was in any of those previous meetings. The Raptors won last night in Chicago by a score of 85-79.
So we have a pair of teams playing on back to back nights, both ranking in the top 10 in opponent scoring average. Both teams held the opposition under 80 points last night.
Fatigue could be a factor, especially with the potential for a New Years Day hangover.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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12-25-13 |
Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 187.5 |
Top |
95-78 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 43 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on CHI@BKN to go UNDER the total.
After losing Derek Rose, the Bulls have also been hit with injuries to Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich and Jimmy Butler. It's not surprising that Chicago has struggled this season, and they have really found life difficult on the road, with a record of 3-11.
The injuries have certainly hurt Chicago's offense, as they've failed to score 100 points in 12 straight road games. The Bulls though are still every bit as tough defensively, ranking second in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just 93.3 points per game.
Chicago will be on the road in Brooklyn this Christmas, taking on a Nets team that is even worse off. Brook Lopez was the team's leading scorer, but he's now done for the rest of the year with a broken foot.
Chicago has trended toward low scoring games at the best of times, even with it's stars in the lineup. The Bulls have seen the total go under in six of their last seven road games versus sub .500 teams. I expect that trend to continue here on X-Mas Day.
Take the Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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12-12-13 |
Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 211.5 |
Top |
104-111 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 27 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on HOU@POR to go OVER the total. The Blazers are half a game up on the San Antonio Spurs for the top spot in the Western Conference, and tonight they host Houston, who is three games back. The Rockets haven't played since Sunday, when they defeated the Magic at home by a score of 98-88. Houston lost their last road game against the lowly Utah Jazz, and they are 5-4 overall on the road this season. The Blazers are 9-2 at home, and in the last week they have beaten the Pacers and the Thunder on their home floor. The last four times these teams face each other, the total went over the number. The Blazers have played more than twice as many overs as unders this season, and they face the highest scoring team in the NBA tonight. The Rockets lead the league in scoring, averaging over 107 points per game, but they haven't been nearly as impressive on the defensive side of the ball. Portland ranks second in the NBA in scoring, averaging over 106 points per game. They have scored 100+ in each of their last nine games overall. Take the OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
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11-11-13 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 186.5 |
Top |
81-96 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 38 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on CLE@CHI to go UNDER the total.
The Bulls have waited a long time for the return of Derrick Rose, but so far Rose has looked like a shadow of his former self. No doubt he will eventually get his swagger back, but as of now he's averaging just 14 points per game, on 32% shooting.
The good news for Chicago is, they are still one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially at home. Chicago is allowing an average of 93 points per game this year, ranking third in the NBA. Opponents have only averaged 77 points per game in Chicago though, and the Bulls are still perfect (2-0) at home.
The Cavs have lost 3-of-4 on the road, and have only scored an average of 85 points in those games. Kyrie Irving scored 39 points in an overtime victory over Philly on Saturday, but overall his numbers are way down from last year.
This should be a let down spot for Cleveland, and I think they are going to struggle to get any offense going in Chicago.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-08-13 |
Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 187 |
Top |
84-91 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 41 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Indiana Pacers are still undefeated at 5-0, and they will be a big favorite tonight as they host the Raptors. Strong defense is the signature of this Pacers team, and nothing has changed in that respect so far this year.
The Pacers lead the league with an opponent scoring average of 84.4 points per game. Toronto though is underrated as a strong defensive club in their own right, and they rank 6th in the league, allowing an average of 95 points per game.
Both teams will be playing their third game in four nights, and fatigue could be a factor. Toronto is 2-3, but all three of those losses came in games decided by single digits.
In four meetings last season, three of those four games saw the total go under the number, and I am expecting to see that trend continue tonight.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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