Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-23 | Lakers v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 94-138 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:10 ET - This line is around a 5.5 or 6 and that is saying the Sixers might only be about a bucket better than the Lakers on a neutral floor. I am just not buying that argument. The Lakers have won 3 straight road games but they lost 5 straight road games prior to that. Also, the Sixers have surprisingly lost each of their last 3 home games so you know they have this one circled on their calendar. This is particularly true because Philly has a couple road games on deck. Also, their most recent win was only by 4 points but this followed the first 9 of 10 Philly wins coming by a margin of at least 7 points and I feel certain this one will too! Lakers have some banged up players and I expect Davis and James to play but neither is likely to be 100% here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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11-26-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. Nets | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:40 ET - The Bulls are hungry for a win. They have revenge here against the Nets from a loss earlier this season too. Also, Chicago is catching Brooklyn in the 2nd night of a B2B and off a revenge win over the own. The Nets had revenge against Miami and they got it. Don't be surprised if, based on scheduling dynamics and situational advantage, the Bulls are the more aggressive and fresh team here. I know Caruso and LaVine are each listed as questionable for this one but I expect them to play. Either way, I like the underdog Bulls here in this one and will grab the points, currently around a 4 or 4.5 as of mid-day Sunday. 10* CHICAGO (+) |
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11-26-23 | Illinois-Chicago +3.5 v. NC-Greensboro | Top | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #751: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) vs UNC Greensboro Spartans @ 7 ET -As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up on UIC, the Flames were off a blowout win Friday so they were able to rest guys and only 2 guys exceeded 27 minutes and neither one of those topped the 31 minute mark. UIC is well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. Now Illinois-Chicago is 5-1 on the season and that was a solid George Washington team they beat yesterday. Now they face UNC Greensboro. The Spartans are 4-1 on the season and have looked strong but they have hit a very high percentage of 3's recently and now face tough tourney situation in that it is a B2B2B and the hot shooting fades. Couple that with the fact they've been giving up too many offensive boards and this is not the right kind of team to take advantage of the Flames guard-heavy style. The Flames will fare well in this match-up and I like having the sizable points in this one. Also UIC has some height and length edges in guard play as well. Grab the points! Illinois-Chicago (+) |
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11-25-23 | Illinois-Chicago -118 v. George Washington | Top | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #655: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames Pick -115 vs George Washington Revolutionaries @ 7 ET - GW is off a double-OT game and that will be tough on them here in this tourney being played in the Bahamas. Also, while they had 4 guys top the 40 minute mark and 1 total 34 minutes, the Flames are off a blowout win so they were able to rest guys and only 2 guys exceeded 27 minutes and neither one of those topped the 31 minute mark. UIC is well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. There is a reason the 4-1 team is a small favorite over the 5-0 undefeated George Washington team. Don't let the line fool you. Lay it! Illinois-Chicago -115 |
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11-25-23 | 76ers -115 v. Thunder | Top | 127-123 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -115 @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 5:10 ET - The Sixers off B2B losses including a bad one at Minnesota in which Embiid missed because it was a back to back and he needed to rest his hip. However, he is expected back here and we get nice value because the Sixers are on the road and facing a tough team. I do respect this Thunder team and they are playing solid basketball. However, the Sixers rarely get on losing streaks and I expect them to put a stop to this one here. Last season and into this season they have been very strong when entering a game off B2B losses or 3 losses in a row (rare) and they have not lost 4 straight last season or this season. I like the Sixers team chemistry this season and they will respond here tonight. The road team won both meetings between these teams last season and that included the Thunder winning the most recent game which was at Philly. So the Sixers can also get some payback in this one tonight. The Thunder are tied with Minnesota at the top of the NW Division and they have the Wolves on deck so this is also a lookahead spot for OKC. The Thunder are 6-1 on the road this season but 5-3 at home. Sixers bounce back here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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11-24-23 | Pistons +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 113-136 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:10 ET - As of about 8 hours before tipoff this line is in the 7.5 range and the Pacers are hurting with some injuries including top scorer Haliburton. Even if he plays, he is dealing with right wrist pain. That will not help in the scoring department. That said, the Pacers have to score a ton to win games because this team just not play defense. There is a reason this line is coming down even though we are talking about a Detroit team (2-13) that has the worst record in the league. Pacers allowing 126.4 ppg and this is the worst mark in the league. If you look at Indiana's last 6 games, none were Pacers wins by more than 6 points and they have gone just 3-3 in those games. There is a reason some action is coming in on a team that has lost 12 straight games, 5 of the last 7 defeats have been by a single digit margin. Look for another very tight game here as the Pistons are very hungry for a win and will take advantage of shoddy defensive play of the Pacers. 10* DETROIT (+) |
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11-24-23 | Seton Hall +1.5 v. Iowa | Top | 72-85 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Seton Hall (+) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 6 ET - Iowa might rate as a slightly better overall team and Seton Hall is only +1 or +1.5 as of about 5 hours before tipoff. However, the better defense belongs to the Pirates. Iowa certainly has some key seniors too but the overall rotation for Seton Hall is loaded with seniors. They are coming off their first loss off the season. Conversely the Hawkeyes have lost 2 of 3 games now. They are a very good team and score well but they are not good on the defensive end. That said, the defensive edges for the Pirates and the fact this is a veteran-laden team early in the season coming off their first loss has me siding with the small dog here. 10* SETON HALL (+) |
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11-22-23 | 76ers v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:10 ET - Current line is in the -4.5 range and I expect a solid home win. Philly had 4 guys score in double digits in last night's OT loss at home to Cleveland. Those 4 players were also the big 4 in terms of minutes played last night as they all topped 40 minutes! This is a really tough spot here for Philly as they are in a B2B while Minny has some rest and the Timberwolves have been playing so well this season. Also, the Sixers have now lost 3 of 5 and certainly are not as a strong of a team as they were early this season before Oubre got hurt. Yes they are still a top team but now short-handed already plus playing the 2nd night of a B2B and the Wolves are 6-0 at home this season and most have been blowout wins and the one that wasn't was still a 5-pt win in OT here. I look for the Timberwolves to take advantage of the situation and roll the Sixers here. 10* MINNESOTA (-) |
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11-22-23 | Ole Miss v. Temple OVER 137 | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #677: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 3:30 ET - This total is in the 137 range as of early gameday morning. Based on the tempo with which these teams play as well as the situation here, I fully expect 140s as an end result. Temple is coming off a 78-73 loss to Columbia after starting the season a perfect 3-0. The Owls had an off shooting performance but played with plenty of tempo and they are now averaging 75 points per game this season. Yes, Ole Miss is an SEC team and they have started this season 4-0 but they are coming off a down season and of course the power of SEC basketball is nothing like it has been in SEC football on the national landscape. Of course that is why the spread is a very small one with Rebels a light road favorite here. Look for this one to be tight late too which helps lead to late fouling, quick three point shots and "scramble points" if you will. I am expecting a back and forth battle played at a good tempo as Ole Miss is averaging 71 points per game this season but also has allowed upper 60s in each of last two games. This will be a tough test facing the Owls in Philly with Temple coming off a loss. The Owls have plenty of scorers and I expect a much better scoring performance here after the horrific shooting against Columbia. Keep in mind, the Owls still scored 73 points despite that tough shooting. Here they will force the tempo and note that Ole Miss has shown they are willing to play fast too. 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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11-21-23 | Cavs v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 122-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
NBA 10* Top Play Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - This line is in the 7.5 range as of early gameday morning. The Cavaliers are a solid team that has won 3 straight games so this line makes sense. However, Cleveland is going to again be without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell here. Also, the Cavaliers could be without Caris LeVert again. If he does play, LeVert (knee) will not be 100% most likely and, keep in mind, he is also one of the Cavs top scorers. This the Sixers only home game in about a 2-week stretch so they want to make it count! Philly has been so strong and they were encouraged by having Oubre back at practice yesterday. His return is likely still weeks away but the team chemistry in Philly right now is as high as it has been in years so they definitely were also encouraged by having him back at practice Monday! The Sixers are 10-2 last dozen games and 8 of last 9 wins by at least 8 points! In fact, the average margin of victory in Philly's wins this season is 13.4 ppg so I do not expect the spread to be an issue here. 4 of the Cavs last 5 losses by at least 8 points and the Sixers are so strong and confident so far this season and this is particularly true at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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11-21-23 | La Salle v. Duke OVER 144 | Top | 66-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 143.5 or 144 in La Salle Explorers at Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - Duke just crushed another PA team (Bucknell) 90 to 60. Now the Blue Devils face a Philly team, La Salle, that recently beat that same Bucknell team. The point is that if Bucknell can shoot only 37% from the field and still put up 60 points on Duke, than you know that La Salle should be able to top that! The fact is the Explorers are 4-0 this season but, of course, a heavy dog to Duke with good reason. La Salle will not be able to slow down a Blue Devils team that is piling up big point totals this season under new head coach Jon Scheyer but, at the same time, the Explorers enter this game with some added confidence on the offensive end. When you start a season 4-0 and averaging 73.5 ppg you'll have some confidence. The fact is they should get into the 65 range here given all of the above but then note that Duke is favored by around 27 points for a reason. That is why I am projecting a 90 to 65 type game here that puts us double digits in front of this total so we'll take it! 10* OVER 143.5 or 144 in Duke |
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11-20-23 | Heat -115 v. Bulls | Top | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat -1.5 or money line -115/-120 @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:10 ET - Right now, as of early gameday morning, the dominant line on this one is -1.5 but some books even have -1.5 -112 for example which is why I most definitely would recommend the money line for those of you with access to it. The money line is in the -115/-120 range so this is one of those rare situations where a money line does make sense even in a spread sport. The fact is the Heat should bounce back here. They have a chance at right back revenge here as they just lost at Chicago and now get a second chance against the Bulls after blowing a 21-point lead against them. They even still led that game by 9 with under 7 minutes to go in the game but they went on to lose the game by 5. The Heat had won 7 straight games before that loss and the Bulls were 4-9 on the season before that win! Even still without Herro, this Miami team just has too much for the Bulls in this one given the situation. Nice chance at right back revenge for the stronger team and the Heat should roll. 10* MIAMI (-) |
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11-20-23 | St. Joe's v. Kentucky OVER 150.5 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #821: CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7 ET - This total in the 150.5 range as of early game day morning. St Joe's is coming off an ugly 57-54 loss in which they trailed all the way. Longtime followers know I love totals with bigger numbers when a team is coming off a game like that. This Hawks team has talent and is coming off an ugly, ugly game. That will bring out a solid scoring effort here after they were so "off" with their shooting in the defeat. However, now they face a Kentucky program that - as per usual - is one of the best in the country this season. The Wildcats will run all over this St Joe's team. Now look at the numbers here. UK is about a 16 point favorite. They have averaged 88 ppg so far this season. If the Cats hit 88 and win by 16 that puts St Joe's at 72. That puts this game at 160. I feel we have solid value with the over here because the emphasis for the Hawks will be better production on offense here but, at the same time, they will not be able to slow down this uber talented Wildcats team. With this game at Rupp Arena in Lexington, the Cats might again erupt for 100 like they just did in most recent game. 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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11-19-23 | Dayton v. Houston OVER 127.5 | Top | 55-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs Dayton Flyers @ 8:30 ET in Charleston, SC - We get a low total in the 128 range to work with here because the Cougars are known for defense. However, they also had played some weaker scoring teams early this season and then Utah showed them what a stronger scoring team is capable of doing against them. That said, now Dayton faces Houston for the Championship game of this tourney. The Flyers are a solid scoring team too and, though tourney Championship games can be grinders, I do not think Dayton wants to allow this game to play out at that type of pace. The Cougars are a young team in terms of new faces and so this roster is still evolving a bit in terms of their style and the Flyers are going to force the issue here. This one will play out at a solid pace and we are not asking for much to get this into the 130s. Note that the Flyers are averaging 72 points per game but have allowed 73 ppg last 3 games. The Cougars offense has been solid scoring 77 ppg but they just allowed 66 points to the Utes at the other end. We should see 130s here. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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11-19-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Nets | Top | 121-99 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 3:10 ET - The Nets are just 3-4 last 7 games and a big key with that is 2 of their 3 wins came against teams that are now a combined 6-17 this season. Against tougher teams the Nets continue to lose and Brooklyn also hurting without leading scorer Cam Thomas. If you look at this Brooklyn roster you can see it is no wonder why they tend to struggle against top teams. Of course the Nets would like revenge for last season's playoff ouster at the hands of the Sixers but they don't have the roster to do it right now in my opinion. Also, keep in mind, Philly's only losses this season came against a strong Bucks team by 1 point in Milwaukee and they lost both ends of a B2B. But that B2B featured a front-end lookahead with a tough Celtics team the very next night. The point is, the way Philly is playing right now, even without Oubre a bit longer, they just do not lose to lower-tier teams. They will get the big win here in my opinion and we have a very manageable line to work with. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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11-17-23 | Maryland v. Villanova -6 | Top | 40-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8:30 ET - The Wildcats are in a great bounce back spot after that embarrassing loss to Penn. They had won their first two games this season and can't wait to get back on the floor after the loss to the Quakers. As for the Terrapins, they are off B2B losses. They have not looked good early this season and now they face an angry team that was ranked heading into that loss to Pennsylvania. The Cats had a huge edge in shots from the field in that game but had an ugly performance. They will bounce back big here on their home floor and take this one by double digits the way I see it and this line is currently in the -6 range. 10* Villanova (-) |
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11-17-23 | 76ers +100 v. Hawks | Top | 126-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Pick'em @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers are off B2B losses. The last 10 times, including post-season, that the Sixers have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games, they have won the next game 8 of 10 times! They will bounce back big here after losing a tight one to Indiana and then struggling versus the Celtics in a 10-point loss. The Hawks are not the Celtics! Philly should bounce back here against an Atlanta team that is 6-5 this season but whose last 4 wins are against teams that are a combined 15-30 this season. The Hawks were in the post-season last year but lost in the first round to Boston and that included losing their last two home games of that series. They enter this one having lost each of their last two home games as well. More of the same here as Embiid should play again even though listed as questionable. Keep in mind that game against the Celtics was 2nd of a B2B and he played. Now, with some rest, he should be even stronger here. 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The current line on this one is around a 3.5 and the Heat are still without Tyler Herro. The game he got hurt in was a game that he only played 8 minutes in. So including that game, Miami has won 4 straight games without him. However, the key here is that 3 of those teams were really bad and are struggling overall this season. In fact, the combined record of all 4 teams is 14-29. Now the Heat face a red hot Nets team that already beat the Heat at Miami this season and that was when Herro was the leading scorer for Miami with 30 points and now he is not even playing tonight. I understand the Heat being favored here as they are at home and have won 6 straight. However, Brooklyn has won 6 of 9 and the only 3 losses were to Boston (twice) and Milwaukee. Of course the Celtics and Bucks are two of the best teams in the league. The Heat, without Herro, are not at that level. The road team gets it done here. 10* BROOKLYN + points |
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11-16-23 | Houston v. Towson OVER 124 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Towson Tigers vs Houston Cougars @ 6:30 ET in Charleston, SC - This total is as low as a 124 as of mid-day. The Cougars have averaged 82 ppg so far this season. Why would they score less than 80 here? They are one of the top teams in the country and can cause Towson all kinds of trouble in this one. Of course that is why they are favored by about 20 points in this one. But that puts this game at 80-60 range which is well above the 124 total. Even if we see 75-55 that gets the job done here. The fact is Towson is averaging 64 points so far. I know that, with much tougher competition here, they do not get to that range but at least mid-50s is reasonable and I am expecting a solid over here as a result. The fresh legs of the Cougars and depth of this team could easily get this one well into the 130s. 10* OVER the total in Towson |
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11-15-23 | Rice v. Texas UNDER 157 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #702: CBB Wednesday UNDER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Rice Owls @ 9 ET - This total is just too high. It is because Rice put up some big points in their first two games but now the Owls face a Horns team that has held each of their first two opponents under 60 points. Note that the Owls are facing a Texas team that will be fully focused here since they have a Louisville team on deck that had a horrible season last year. That game is at Madison Square Garden too so UT does have a road trip on deck. Here at home they play a strong defensive game and they are about a 20 point favorite in this one. If they again hold another opponent in the 60 range, that puts this game in the 80-60 range and that means it falls well below the 157 that is the current number posted on this game. Last year's meeting was high-scoring but because of OT and that was after a 72-72 score in regulation and UT learned their lesson from letting the Owls hang around in that one. They will turn up the heat on defense in this one! UNDER the total in Texas |
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11-15-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday UNDER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This total seems inflated because of the Sixers coming off B2B shootouts with the Pacers. Those inflated point totals had a lot to do with the style Indiana plays. Now Philly takes on a big-time division rival and it is a team known for lower-scoring games and these Celtics to play solid defense. The first match-up between these teams this season totaled 209 points and more of the same likely here in another tight battle. This total is in the 226.5 point range as of mid-morning on gameday and this is offering excellent value here. The Celtics are allowing only 104.6 ppg this season (not including OT points) and they are a small favorite in this match-up. That puts this game right around the 106-103 score we saw in the first one with the Celtics taking the rematch. Regardless who does prevail in this one I am expecting a point total very similar to that. The Sixers team hurt by the possible absence of Batum again and already they are missing Oubre after he broke a rib in an off-court accident recently. This game will be more of a grinder than many are anticipating. UNDER the total in Philadelphia |
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11-14-23 | Pacers +5.5 v. 76ers | Top | 132-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - Embiid may not play here as he has a sore left hip. To put that on the injury report in a different way, Embiid may rest here because the Sixers have another huge game with the rival Celtics on deck for tomorrow night! In all seriousness that is a real factor here and it would not surprise me if this is the Sixers excuse to end up holding Embiid out of this one. Even if he does play I expect Philly to rest some guys if they do have a sizable lead late. But the fact is this Pacers team can hang around in this one and possibly even steal an upset win. The Sixers can not help but to think about the huge showdown with the Celtics on deck. Yes they finally beat them when these teams met last week but that does not change importance of "round two" of their season series. Also, though Philly won by 11 in the game versus Indiana Sunday, that was with Maxey scoring 50 points and with the team overall making 14 three pointers! I just do not see those types of numbers again and expect a tight battle here in this one. The Pacers have a strong shot at revenge here but we'll grab the points being offered for added insurance. The current line on this one as of early gameday morning is +5.5 points. 10* INDIANA + points |
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11-14-23 | Stonehill v. St. Joe's OVER 140.5 | Top | 56-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #306525 Tuesday CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Joe's Hawks vs Stonehill Skyhawks @ 7 ET - This total is in the 141 range as of very early gameday morning and I feel that will prove to be far too low in this one. Stonehill is now in the Northeast Conference in Division 1 basketball for just its 2nd season after being a Division II program. They just got hammered by UConn and even though the Huskies are defending champs, the fact is the Skyhawks could do nothing to stop them. They tried to switch to a zone defense and that still did not help in the 107 to 67 loss. I like the fact that they scored 67 points and Stonehill has seen their scoring tick upward in each game thus far. However, they have now allowed 98 points per game in their two losses and St Joseph's will be ready to run and gun in this one! The Hawks only have Texas A & M Commerce on deck so certainly they are fully focused here and they just put up 69 points on a Penn team that just shocked everyone by getting an upset win over Villanova last night and holding the Wildcats to 72 points. The point is that these Hawks roughly equaled the Nova point-scoring against the Quakers. St Joe's should certainly get 80+ here given all of the above. They have solid guard play plus too much size inside and they will dominate. But the Skyhawks will continue their improved scoring trending and this line is around an 18. I am projecting an 85-67 type game which put this one double digits about the current number in the 141 range. 10* OVER the total in St Joe's |
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11-13-23 | Knicks +9 v. Celtics | Top | 98-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play New York Knicks + @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This is a great set-up. The Celtics have a big revenge game with the 76ers on deck. Conversely, the Knicks have revenge on their minds right here, right now as they lost their season opener at home to Boston despite having an edge in field goal attempts of 20 more in that game! Not only that, the Knicks enter this game off B2B high-scoring performances including a season high in shooting efficiency in their most recent win. Yes, Boston is solid defensively and they are the better overall team in this match-up as they are one of the best teams in the league. However, the Knicks are a solid club and they have a big motivational edge here and could catch the Celtics thinking ahead to the rematch with Philly. I'll gladly grab the generous points here which is in the +9 range as of early game day morning. 10* NEW YORK KNICKS + points |
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11-13-23 | Villanova -11.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 72-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Monday CBB 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) @ Pennsylvania Quakers @ 7 ET - As mentioned in my play on St Joe's against the Quakers Friday, I know Penn began the season with a strong start but they had played a weak schedule. They are still dealing with a roster featuring a lot of guys playing their first college basketball. Sure enough, despite managing a surprising in-game 19-2 run, the Quakers still fell short and also failed to cover as we cashed in with the Hawks Friday. As for Monday's opponents for Penn, the Wildcats are laying about a dozen points in this spot but should roll big here. They are, of course, the most talented team in the Philly Big 5 and they looked strong so far even though they faced some weaker competition as they simply managed each game and they turned it on when they needed to. Since they are the more veteran team, they will have an advantage if this game is tight at halftime and they will pull away in the 2nd half. They know how to close out games like this and have the depth to give the Quakers trouble all game long if it is tighter than expected early in the 2nd half. However, I am expecting a rather comfortable win here as this is an important Big 5 game in Philly. Last season the Wildcats won this meeting only 70-59 but over 2/3 of the points for the Quakers came from two guys who are not here anymore. That includes star Jordan Dingle who is now with Syracuse. This is a transition season for Penn and they will struggle against a Nova team that is again a Top 25 team in the country this season. The line is around 11.5 as of early gameday morning and I expect a rout in this one. 10* VILLANOVA (-) |
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11-12-23 | Nevada +5 v. Washington | Top | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (+) @ Washington Huskies @ 10 ET - Classic case of line value based on the Mountain West school taking on the big, bad Big 12 school. In this case, when you compare these two rosters and all the aspects of these two teams, I would rate the Wolf Pack with an edge. We are getting 5 points with the better team. Of course it is because this game is in Seattle so of course some value being assigned to Washington for this makes sense. However, this line has moved into the +5 range and it is just too much. I sense and upset here with a road team from the smaller school with strong talent and a solid roster. 10* NEVADA |
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11-12-23 | Pacers v. 76ers OVER 236.5 | Top | 126-137 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 236.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers @ 6:10 ET - I am aware that Oubre is out for Philly but this red hot Sixers team will not miss a beat. Also, Indiana has been on fire so the points will be flowing here because the Pacers view defense as an afterthought. The run and gun style will be in full effect in this game throughout as the Sixers are particularly comfortable playing this style when at home. The Pacers have won 3 straight and 4 of 5 games and have scored an average of 131 points in these 5 games. However, Indiana also has allowed an average of 125 points last 6 games! The Sixers are averaging 121 ppg when at home. Indiana off a high-scoring game with Milwaukee and struggled to stop them but prevailed. The Sixers also allowed 118 to the Bucks in a 1-point loss. The point is that each team getting into the 120s is certainly not too much to ask here. Over is the play in this one. 10* OVER 236.5 in Philadelphia |
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11-11-23 | New Mexico State +9 v. Cal-Irvine | Top | 74-91 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #661: CBB Saturday New Mexico State Aggies (+) @ Cal-Irvine Anteaters @ 10 ET - This line is all the way up to a +9 as of about Noon ET gameday and this is too much value for the underdog. Everyone remembers the Aggies getting hammered by 40 in their opener against Kentucky but they were outclassed there just like Sul Ross State was outclassed when they were the next opponent for New Mexico State and the Aggies rolled by 35 points. The fact is many will remember the UK demolition and that is why this line is so high. Cal-Irvine is off a strong season but they shot just 2 of 12 from three point land in their season opener and lost. I don't expect the Anteaters to be as strong this season and shooting like that from deep for a Big West team is not going to lead to many wins by a double digit margin against a respectable foe. The Aggies can hang tough in this one and they certainly are focused on a much stronger effort after the debacle at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY to open up their season. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE + points |
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11-11-23 | Cavs v. Warriors -4 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:40 ET - This is a revenge game for the Warriors as they lost at Cleveland less than a week ago. They had a horrible shooting night from inside the arc in that game and I like the situation here too as the Cavaliers are 1-5 SU, other than the win over GS, ever since they won on opening night. In other words, they have struggled badly and now they face a revenge-minded Warriors team off a loss after a 6-1 SU stretch in which the only loss was the defeat to the Cavs. As you can see, value here with the home team at this very manageable number currently in the -4 range. 10* GOLDEN STATE (-) |
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11-10-23 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 221.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - This total in the 221.5 range and should prove to be too low. The Sixers off the big win over the Celtics will leave them a bit flat on defense here. This should be a free-flowing game as a results and the Pistons have been giving up plenty of points this season. So this total should prove to be too low. Detroit has allowed at least 120 in 4 straight games and 5 of last 6. That said, if they to do that again here and the odds makers are right about this line, it means this game ends in at least the 120-112 range as Detroit is an 8-point dog here. I do look for a rather tight game with Sixers willing to play a free-flowing game too as they are just so happy that they beat the nemesis Celtics. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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11-10-23 | Pennsylvania v. St. Joe's -6 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Friday CBB 10* Top Play St Joe's Hawks (-) vs Pennsylvania Quakers @ 6:30 ET - I know Penn is off to a strong start but they have played a weak schedule. They are still loaded with a roster featuring a lot of guys playing their first college basketball. The Hawks are laying about a half dozen points in this spot and should roll big here. They return the core of last season's team and looked strong in their opener as they turned it on when they needed to. This will be 3rd game in 5 days for Penn while the Hawks have been off since Monday. Also, since they are the more veteran team, they will have an advantage if this game is tight late and they will pull away. However, I am expecting a rather comfortable win here as this is an important Big 5 game in Philly. Last season the Hawks won this meeting by 5 and it took OT. However, this season St Joe's looks stronger than last year while Penn is going to have some growing pains early on working new guys in. That has not showed yet because they faced opponents that were overmatched but it will show up now against a tough Hawks team. 10* ST JOE'S (-) |
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11-09-23 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 242 | Top | 124-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:10 ET - This total is so big in the 242 range and it must be an easy under setting up here, right? Especially when you consider this is a divisional game. However, if last season was any indication, this total is still not nearly high enough. These teams met 4 times last season and one was in the 250s, one in 260s, one in 270s, one in 280s! Must have been a lot of overtime periods, right? No, there were none! Adding to the value here in my opinion is the B2B because maybe a typical lackadaisical attitude on defense here after giving some effort last night. In terms of minutes, the Pacers had a blowout win so that helped get guys off the floor early. The Bucks Giannis was out early due to an ejection so he has fresh legs. Additionally, Middleton rested yesterday so he'll be ready to go for Milwaukee. All signs point to a lot of points here and this numbers is big for a reason as the final scores last season indicate. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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11-09-23 | Fairfield v. Rhode Island OVER 141.5 | Top | 80-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Rhode Island Rams vs Fairfield Stags @ 7 ET - Two teams working in a lot of new players and, as their first games showed, both teams willing to run and gun and throw caution to the wind. Fairfield is a MAAC school and that conference is known for higher scoring. As Rhode Island, they are off a disappointing campaign and have a re-tooled roster and, of course, they are a big favorite with good reason as the A-10 team should take care of business here. However, the Stags will push them for sure and this game should have a great tempo and end up near the 150 mark. With a current total in the 141.5 range, this one gets my best bet status for Thursday. Fairfield lost their first game 89-70 and the Rams won their first game 81-70. Look for this one to get into the 150s as well. 10* OVER the total in Rhode Island |
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11-08-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Wednesday NBA 10* Top Philadelphia 76ers + vs Boston Celtics @ 7:10 ET - I know White is expected back for the Celtics tonight but he was away on paternity leave so how effective will he be here? Could he be distracted? Boston has a great team of course and they have owned the Sixers in recent seasons but there is something different about this Philly team this season and the chemistry they have as they have rallied around the entire Harden situation and are happy he is now with the Clippers. As a home dog, this is is a great spot to grab a team that has rattled off 5 straight wins and remember that Boston is still working some guys into their rotation early this season. As evidenced by the loss at Minnesota, this is still a process for the Celtics. The 76ers get revenge here for last spring's playoff ouster at the hands of their long-time rivals. This is a big game and it sure looks like the Sixers are finally ready to show up and knock off the C's. Grab the points with home dog here. Currently the dominant line is +2 but there is some +2.5 out there as of mid-morning gameday. 10* PHILADELPHIA + |
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11-08-23 | Bucknell +14 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 61-80 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #306531: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Bucknell Bison + @ Pennsylvania Quakers @ 7 ET - The Quakers are off a big win but faced a completely overmatched opponent. They also have a Philly Big 5 match-up on deck with facing St Joe's on Friday. That said, even if Penn gets up big here they might start resting guys with a bigger game on deck Friday! However, don't be surprised if Bucknell gives them a lot of trouble and keeps this one in single digits throughout. The Quakers have a lot of new faces and are lacking in guys with collegiate experience. The Bison lost some guys from last season's team but still returned a good core group of guys from last season. Certainly the Quakers are the stronger team from the Ivy League as the Bison are in the Patriot League. However, this is an intriguing match-up because Bucknell got into foul trouble against Delaware and that led to a blowout loss but I like the hustle and effort I saw from the Bison in that one and this rather short road trip down to the Philly area will do them some good after the ugly home loss in their season opener. The late morning line is in the 13.5 to 14 point range and is offering great big dog value. 10* BUCKNELL + |
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11-07-23 | Drexel -2.5 v. La Salle | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (-) @ La Salle Explorers @ 6:30 ET - The Big 5 or the City 6? Well it is still called the Big 5 in Philly but now Drexel has been added to the mix along with La Salle and Temple and St Joseph's and Penn and, of course Villanova. All these Philly schools battle it out every year for superiority and, trust me, it means something to these teams. This year there will even be a new tournament that takes place in early December involving the Big 5 schools which, again, are now 6 with Drexel added. That said, what a great time for the Dragons to be added. This team continues to get stronger and they look great heading into this season with most of the core group, nearly everyone returning from last season. They will be playing extremely hard in this one because of the first Philly 5 aspect of it but also because of their fallen teammate who passed away in August. You are going to see an incredible effort here from a gritty and hard-working team that is a cohesive group and well-coached and is part of a program that is continuing to grow. The Dragons are going to make some noise this season. As for La Salle, their coach Fran Dunphy is a legend in these parts and the 75 year old will have his team playing better as the season goes on but the Explorers lost too much to be a solid team right out of the gate. Look for some early struggles for LaSalle this season but look for the Dragons to be ready to rock from the opening tip here. We have to lay about 2.5 points here but I truly expect a dominating win for the team that returns a lot more of its core group than its opponent in this one. 10* DREXEL (-) |
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11-06-23 | Wizards v. 76ers -11 | Top | 128-146 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - This line is right around an 11 as of early gameday morning and I am not a huge fan of laying big points in the NBA but this 76ers team is rolling right now and has excellent team chemistry now that Harden is gone. Also, in that trade the Sixers picked up a few players and tonight Batum will make his debut while Covington already is back and contributed in the win over the Suns. Keep in mind Covington is a former Sixer that had some big seasons and he is happy to be back here. He and Batum will be role players that help this team with depth. Speaking of depth, we are only 5 games into the season but this is still a pretty amazing feat. The Sixers have 4 guys (Embiid, Maxey, Oubre, Harris) right now averaging at least 20 points per game! How amazing is that? Glad you asked! This is an NBA record. In NBA history there has never been a team with 4 guys still averaging 20+ points per game by the time they are 5 games into a new season. This is just not normal but Philly has a new free-flowing offense and everyone is contributing and they even got to rest Embiid for the entire 4th quarter against the Suns in that 12 point win. Speaking of big wins, the Sixers 4 wins have come by an average of 15.5 ppg. The 76ers have won 4 straight after a 1-point loss at Milwaukee to open the season. The Wizards 4 losses have come by an average of 14.5 ppg. I know the Sixers have the Celtics on deck but that game is not until Wednesday and Philly is enjoying a long homestand and that game is at home too. They will be ready to stay hot at home and dominate this Wizards team that just does not have the depth to keep up with Philly for 4 quarters. The Sixers pull away as this game goes on. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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11-06-23 | Lafayette v. St. Joe's -14 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #305014: College Hoops: Monday 10* Top Play St Joe's Hawks (-) vs Lafayette Leopards @ 7 ET - The Leopards have a new coach and they also lost 3 of the 6 guys that had the most minutes on the floor when these guys met last season and the Leopards rallied after being down double digits at the half. In that game Lafayette was down by 10 at the half but ended up making a game of it in the 63-59 loss. That will not happen again this season as St Joe's is absolutely stacked this season. They return 3 strong backcourt players in Reynolds, Greer and Brown. They also bring back a 7-footer in Fleming and also brought in another one in Essandoko. The latter has already been fantastic both offensively and defensively in preseason action. He is ready and the Hawks will make a statement here. They are deep so they can stay up big througout. They are healthy and they do not want a scare like they had last season so they will keep the pedal to the metal in this one. St Joe's has a coach here for his 5th year and he went from 11 wins two years ago to 16 wins last season and this looks like his best team yet. The Leopards have a new coach and are in a bit of a rebuild now and they are from the weaker Patriot League while the Hawks reside in the tough Atlantic Ten. Lafayette also has a big road trip out west with UCLA and Pepperdine up next. St Joseph's is home for the first two weeks of the season and I see them starting out strong and blowing the Leopards away in this one. The line at 14, as of early game day morning, is absolutely a bargain here. 10* ST JOE'S (-) |
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11-04-23 | Jazz +8.5 v. Wolves | Top | 95-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Saturday NBA Utah Jazz +8.5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:10 ET - Minnesota off a huge win they were waiting all summer for as they just beat the Nuggets. Not only is Denver the defending NBA champs and not only were they off to a hot start again this season, the Nuggets knocked the Wolves out of the playoffs last season. So that was a huge revenge win for the T-wolves and now they face a letdown spot here. The Jazz will not be in a good mood either as they had won their last 2 home games and now just lost most recent game by only a bucket. I am not saying they get the outright win here but they are motivated and will be hungry tonight and they stay within this inflated team that could get caught a bit flat-footed off the big win over the Nuggets. UTAH +8.5 |
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11-03-23 | Grizzlies -135 v. Blazers | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Friday Memphis Grizzlies (-) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 10:10 ET - The line as of early gameday morning is -2.5 but also as low as -135 on the money line for those of you with access to that. The key factor here is an 0-5 Memphis team is, of course, favored on the road over Portland for a reason. Do not let the line fool you. 3 of the 5 teams the Grizzlies have lost to have a combined record of 12-2 this season. Also they were just in nearby Utah. Conversely, the Blazers have just come back from a long road trip to the East Coast and they are off B2B wins after starting the season 0-3. So the fact is the winless Grizzlies will prove to be the hungrier team here and they finally get into the win column and should take this by 3 or more for sure. Looking at all 10 of the games these teams have been in this season none have been decided by less than 5 points. Consider the money line for maximum security though here but look for the big road win. MEMPHIS (-) |
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11-02-23 | Raptors v. 76ers OVER 215.5 | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* OVER 215.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:10 ET - Both teams are off blowout wins. A lot of times when a team is off an easy win you will see a let-up in defensive intensity in the next game. So here you have a case where both teams are off easy wins and are fully confident they can just run and gun their way to another win in the very next game. Philly, after all, has a right to feel that way with having scored an average of 119 ppg so far and coming off B2B wins and their only loss was by a single point. However, one of those wins was at Toronto and now the Raptors will be out for revenge. Toronto will push hard for some payback here and I expect them build off the big win over the Bucks. However, the Raptors also will continue to struggle to stop a Sixers team that dominated them with points in the paint in the first meeting. In terms of outside shooting, the Raptors shot well from 3-point land in the first meeting plus were scoring well from downtown in the big win over Milwaukee last night. That said, confidence will be high for the Raptors shooters from beyond the arc and I look for an entertaining affair in this one. The total is understandably low based on Toronto's results prior to the high-scoring win over the Bucks. However, this one is all about the situation and the Sixers will want to push the pace too because they are at home and, of course, well aware of the fact that the Raptors are in a B2B spot. 10* OVER 215.5 in Philadelphia |
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11-01-23 | Blazers v. Pistons OVER 215.5 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 215.5 or 216 in Detroit Pistons vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7 ET - I like playing the "opposite game" after an unusual result and, in this case, Portland is off a very low-scoring win that featured an ultra low-scoring fourth quarter. That has helped keep some value here and I also like the fact we could see a let-up in defensive intensity after a rare slugfest. The Blazers had allowed an average of 117 points per game in their first 3 games. As for Detroit, they have allowed 107 points per game this season. I understand the low total here because the Trail Blazers have not scored very well this season but off their first win and feeling more confident they may be more inclined to pick up the pace some now in this one. As for Detroit, they are playing just their 2nd home game and they scored 118 points in the first one and that was a win. The Pistons had back to back wins before the loss to the Thunder on the road and they scored an average of 114 in their last 3 games. We should see this one get well into the 220s given all of the above and I will take advantage of the lower total posted on this game. Again, I understand the lower number from the odds makers as the markets demand it in this case but it is the situational perspective here that dictates the true value in this spot. 10* OVER 215.5 or 216 in Detroit |
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10-31-23 | Magic +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:40 ET - The Magic off a tough loss to the Lakers last night but now play on the same floor tonight. Orlando had 95 shots from the field compared to just 79 for LA but they were done in by poor shooting. They will be better here tonight and all I can say about the Clippers getting Harden from the Sixers is two words: good luck! I think he will be more of a problem than a solution here in LA plus the Clips lost some bench minutes in the process with some of those guys now on the way to Philly in the trade. So tonight may not be the Clippers best effort. I also like the fact they are off a 40 point win while the Magic are off a tight loss. Look for Orlando to be very hungry team and this is one of those teams that is young but they tend to work hard at each end of the floor and I believe they will hang around in this one and eventually might even pull of the upset win late. After all, there is some extra hunger when you know you should have beat a team but you did not. That is the case here with the Magic after the tight loss to the Lakers. I am sure they will make up for that here. 10* ORLANDO (+) |
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10-30-23 | Pistons v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 112-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 or -6 vs Detroit Pistons @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder just got completely embarrassed at home yesterday and that was their home opener. However, OKC had a really tough shooting night while the Nuggets were red hot from the field. Oklahoma City is sure to bounce back tonight. Remember that the Thunder are a young and up-and-coming team and are expected to do well this season. The Pistons are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. I know Detroit is 2-1 but they beat some teams also projected to not do well this season. This is going to be the Pistons toughest test yet as they face an angry Thunder team ready to immediately respond at home. Denver shot 60% last night and 41% from three point land while OKC shot just 41% from the field and 19% from beyond the arc in an ugly game. It was a sell-out game at home against the defending champs and a home opener no-less and the Thunder got embarrassed. That is the kind of game a decent team will respond to. OKC is more than decent. They are talented and can make a move up the standings this season. They had won both games before the loss to the Champs. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 or -6 |
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10-29-23 | Blazers v. 76ers OVER 217.5 | Top | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 217.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:40 ET - Philly is in a B2B but they are riding high on positive energy and emotion here. Not only did they get a big road win at Toronto last night, this is their home opener now tonight. However, I do not like laying big points in the NBA and I think the best way to play this game is the over. The 76ers are going to be aggressive tonight and should score plenty of points throughout in an electric atmosphere for their season opener. However, the Blazers (even without Simons) could surprise here. I am expecting Portland to be very competitive here with a run and gun effort as they are still looking for their first win of the season plus Sharpe played well in place of Simons in his first start this season after the Simons injury. The Blazers have some solid young talent and a respected head coach that knows how to utilize it. They will not be able to get a lot of stops of a Sixers team that will be "feeling it" at home in this one but Portland will take advantage of some possibly lax defense after the Sixers had to put a big effort into holding off the Raptors late in yesterday's game. Value with the line move here too as this total was in the low 220s. We'll step in and take advantage. 10* OVER 217.5 in Philadelphia |
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10-28-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - It is one thing to lose in OT but it is another thing to lose that game when you led by 17 points in the 4th quarter with under 5 minutes to go! Indeed, the loss for the Raptors last night at Chicago is one that falls into the gut-wrenching category and those are the toughest to bounce back from. Toronto was still up by 7 with under a minute and a half to go in regulation. Then, in OT, the Raptors were up by 4 with about 30 seconds to go! The Bulls then got a layup and later a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left and got the 1-point win. Look for Toronto to struggle to bounce back from this and they are facing a rested 76ers team that came up just 1 point short at Milwaukee in the first game. The Bucks were a tougher opponent for Philly than either of the opponents Toronto has faced so far this season. This further adds to the value here. Though I am not nuts about laying points in the NBA this is a manageable number given the situation and I expect the Sixers to continue to work hard under a new head coach and plus they are motivated by the Harden situation looking to prove they can do all the need to without him. 10* PHILADELPHIA -3.5 |
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10-27-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:10 ET - The Warriors were one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season. Granted this is not much of a road trip for them but facts are facts. Golden State has really struggled to win in other team's buildings. They did not shoot well at all versus Phoenix from 3-point land in the season opener and that was at home. Now they are in an enemy's building and it is an enemy that does not like them at all and this nearby rival is likely to get a solid home win here as the Warriors will again be without Draymond Green for this one. This impacts their defense and rebounding and the Kings off a big win in their season opener and rolling with confidence entering this one. 10* SACRAMENTO -2.5 |
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10-26-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:30 ET - This line is as high as a 6.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. I feel we have excellent underdog line value here. All you hear about the Sixers these days is the Harden situation. You here very little about the fact this team has plenty of other talent plus has added some key personnel pieces that fit well into the other big key here that few are talking about. Nick Nurse is going to end up doing a great job in Philly. He will get more out of these players and these guys, sans Harden, are a hungry group that is a great mix of young talent and veteran leadership. I am not saying they are the best team in the east but they are one of the top ones and in this match-up with the Bucks they have the coaching edge plus we have about a half-dozen points to work with. Couple that with the hungry underdog mentality and the fact that Milwaukee could have some growing pains early this season in terms of Lillard and Giannis looking to figure out how to develop synergy on the floor together - it could be choppy early in Milwaukee. The Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset and when I see a game like this plus am getting a half-dozen points to work with, I am on it! 10* PHILADELPHIA + |
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10-25-23 | Mavs -4 v. Spurs | Top | 126-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks -4 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:40 ET - Of course there is a ton of hype about the Spurs and their new big man Victor Wembanyama but he is a rookie and will have some growing pains. Additionally, Spurs coach Popovich has had a remarkable career and I have plenty of respect for him but he should have hung it up a few years ago. San Antonio will again struggle this season and not get out of the 20s in win total this season. Conversely, Dallas off a disappointing campaign but had been flying quite high prior to this and I am expecting a big bounce back year for them. They look positively re-tooled and I like this Mavs team to be very hungry early this season after the disappointment of the way last season ended. That said, covering a small number on the road against a hated division rival set for another down campaign should not be a problem. We lay it here with plenty of confidence and I look for the the Mavericks to pull away as the game goes on. The Spurs may ride some early emotion but that will take them only so far here as reality sets in as the game goes on. 10* DALLAS -4 |
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10-24-23 | Suns +1.5 v. Warriors | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The line is as high as +1.5 on the Suns here but some books even have the Suns as a 1 point favorite in this one as of early gameday morning. Essentially this line is in the pick'em range. This sets up perfectly for me as a contrarian play and I love contrarian plays in the NBA. Last season Golden State was 33-8 at home while the Suns were 17-24 on the road. You think the odds makers are unaware of this home/road dichotomy? Of course not. That said, this line has been set this way with good reason and Phoenix is projected to be the stronger team this season and I am going to ride them right away here in Game 1 of the new season as they get the road win against this over-rated Warriors bunch. Look for the absence of Draymond Green to hurt Golden State as they sure could use his defense in a match-up like this. 10* PHOENIX (+) |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 208.5 | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER 208.5 in Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - The Heat, not including OT points, have averaged 109 points on the road in this post-season. The Nuggets are favored by 9 here so if Miami hits their road average and the spread is set correctly, Denver scores 118 to 109. That score would crush this total by nearly 20 points. Now I am not saying we'll see exactly that of course but I am saying we have some value with this low total because this series has seen the Heat held to 95 points or less in 3 of 4 games. However, do note that the last 10 times Miami has entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games, they have scored - ironically - an average of 109 points also! So getting past the century mark is not asking too much here. Miami will be aggressive and do everything they can to keep their championship hopes alive no matter how slim they now are. That said, the Heat are going to have to be aggressive offensively because you know the Nuggets will be aggressive in looking to close out this series on their home floor. Denver so dangerous and particularly at home! The Nuggets have scored 113.5 points per game at home in the post-season but also lost to the Heat here in Game 2. The hosts will be more aggressive offensively and the situational metrics are all pointing to the over. 10* OVER 208.5 in Denver |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +142 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Friday Miami Heat Money Line +140 vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +3.5 is out there) but I am going with the +140 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw their starting backcourt of Vincent and Strus combine for 3 of 17 from the field Wednesday. The Heat also got obliterated on the glass by a 58 to 33 margin as Denver dominated the rebounding department. Give these insane numbers you would think Denver won the game by 30 but actually Miami lost the game by 15. As I mentioned in a prior write-up (and I had Miami in Game 2 and Denver in Game 3), when I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here in Game 4 off the home loss and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 3 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of taking the money line rather than the points, note that the Heat are 6-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 6 times they have entered a home game off a standalone loss. In other words when AT HOME and coming off a loss but NOT on a losing streak of any kind - just a standalone loss - Miami has been PERFECT the last 6 times including 3-0 in this post-season in this situation! Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 7 in a row! MIAMI +140 |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -2 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets -2 or -2.5 @ Miami @ 8:30 ET - The Nuggets are 3-0 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by 6 or less points. Given that straight up (SU) trend as well as the fact the line here is only 2 or 2.5, I do not have any hesitation in laying the points in this bounce back spot for Denver. Note that they outrebounded the Heat in the Game 2 loss. They also led the game by 8 points entering the 4th quarter. The fact the Nuggets fell short as a result of getting outplayed in that 4th quarter on their home floor will only strengthen their resolve here. The Nuggets were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc in that game and it was the difference maker. The fact the Heat knocked down about 50 percent of threes and hit 17 of them while Denver hit 11 means that the final score would have been Nuggets by 15 if you take the threes out of the equation. Of course you can not do that and I had the Heat in Game 2 on the MONEY LINE as an outright +300 winner and expected them to respond big Sunday. However, I now expect Denver to make adjustments too and they respond here and get the road win. Note that Denver is 7-0 SU when they allow 100 or more points in their prior game. Nuggets D up here and the big road win by 3 or more. 10* DENVER -2 or -2.5 |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Miami Heat Money Line +300 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +8.5 is out there) but I am going with the +300 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw Martin, Strus and Robinson combine for 2 of 23 from the field Thursday. The Heat also had only 2 free throw attempts in the game. Miami also saw Jimmy Butler score just 13 points. All of these insane numbers and yet the Heat still won the game. Wait, you are telling me Denver won and not Miami? Well technically you are 100% correct but the fact is Miami won the game from the field despite those numbers above. Indeed the Nuggets scored 14 more points than the Heat from the free throw line. This means that Miami (104-93 losers in Game 1) actually won the game by 3 points from the field. When I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 1 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of having the guts to take a +300 money line, note that the Heat are 9-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 9 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of a dozen or less points. The points are a generous offer here for sure but we won't need them so I am going for a triple your money wager here. Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 10 in a row! MIAMI +300 |
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06-01-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +9 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - I really like both these teams. Guys who follow me closely know I rode both the Nuggets and Heat heavily in the conference finals. That said, I got the match-up I wanted and I feel we have a solid competitive balance here. Certainly the Nuggets are the stronger overall team and deserve this heavy line generally speaking but Miami is a very good team. Also, this is not a normal situation here either. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. That is an issue here for Denver. There already is a normal automatic layoff between the conference finals and the NBA finals. That said, the fact the Heat / Celtics series went 7 games did not necessarily hurt them entering this series. It could hurt them if this series goes deep but early on it actually is an advantage that Miami could be more game ready here considering the fact that the Nuggets have not played since Monday. No not the Monday of THIS week but the Monday of LAST week. So a weak and a half later Denver is taking the floor again finally for a real game. Nothing compares to real game action no matter how much you practice. So the point is Denver is likely rusty enough that the Heat can take advantage early on in this one. I still think Nuggets find a way to win this one but I do not think they win this by double digits. Grab the big points here. MIAMI +9 |
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05-29-23 | Heat +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Monday Miami Heat Money Line +250 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently some +7.5 is out there) but I am going with the +250 on the money line here. First off, Boston is trying to do something that has never been done in terms of coming all the way back from down 3-0 in an NBA series to win 4 straight and take the series. Secondly, the Heat are so well-coached and have a huge experience edge with Spoelstra over Mazzulla as I have mentioned in my prior write-ups. Thirdly and, for me, a huge key here is a look inside that Game 6 boxscore in the thriller that Boston won by just a single point on a late tap-in. Note that the Big 3 of Boston - Brown, Smart, Tatum - totaled 78 points and shot a respectable 24 of 53 from the field. Conversely, the Big 3 of Miami - Butler, Adebayo, Vincent - totaled only 50 on disastrous 15 of 55 shooting from the field. Look at those numbers again. Look at the final score again. I am telling you straight up that I will actually be SHOCKED, given all of the above, if the Heat do NOT pull off what the public would perceive as a SHOCKER and win this game OUTRIGHT! Seriously, I am not exaggerating here. Given the number above the Heat should have lost by at least 20 points in that last game and they did not as they were 0.1 seconds from an outright win. That says a lot. I am confident in Spoelstra and in Butler and the fact they will bounce back here after the horrible shooting in Game 6. Grab the points if you want but my play is on the outright money line winner. MIAMI +250 |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I just can not see Gabe Vincent missing this game. The Heat know a win tonight is critical. Vincent was able to take Game 5 off because of the situation but now in Game 6, and considering the injury is not major, I feel strongly that he will be back. Even if he is not, I look for Jimmy Butler to have a much better game on his home floor. He and all of the Heat players should bounce back. They have been so strong this year when at home and off a loss. Miami is 17-4 the last 21 times they have entered a home game coming off a loss. This includes a perfect 8-0 the last 8 times! This is a SU record but, of course, any SU win tonight is also an ATS win for the Heat as they are catching 3 points here. So the system fits and we will not hesitate to back it. Also, Boston is 0-6 the last 6 times they have entered a road game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. So this is a double perfect spot as both these team trends are also perfect in this post-season. Indeed I am expecting the outright win here but I will grab the points just in case the Heat fall just short but I am looking for a major response here at home and the long-term numbers in this situation certainly support that. MIAMI +3 |
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05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Miami Heat +8.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I did have Boston in Game 4 and expected Celtic pride to rise up and avoid the sweep. However, as I mentioned in that write-up I sill expect Miami to end up winning this series. Even if that does not happen, I do expect them to stay inside this inflated number. The Heat are up 3-1 in this series. Now, because Boston finally got a win but is down 3-1 and returning home and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to blowout Miami in Game 5? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat have been fantastic in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 177th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. I know Boston won Game 4 by 15 in Miami but the Celtics outscored the Heat by 30 points from 3-point land as they were hot from downtown while Miami struggled to hit from deep. I did like the fact that the Heat resumed being the stronger rebounding team in Game 4 and I expect more of the same here. Miami has only had one losing streak (3 games) since early March as when they have entered a game off a standalone loss they have won the next game 8 of 9 times including all 3 times in this post-season. Even if they do not win outright here, look for them to get at least th cover and yes I am aware of the questionable status of guard Gabe Vincent but this team has battled through injuries all post-season. MIAMI +8.5 |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Boston Celtics +2 @ Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - Even though I have been on Miami throughout this series and do expect them to win the series eventually. I don't see that happening tonight. The Celtics actually had 98 field goal attempts compared to 81 for the Heat in Game 3 on Sunday. Boston was done in by poor shooting and the fact that Miami shot lights out. That said, the value is with the Celtics here in desperation mode. The Heat have the coaching edge big-time in this match-up but Boston has a very talented cast and they can will this team to victory if they want it bad enough. I think this Celtics team absolutely does want to win this one for pride and to get one more home in at least as this would send the series back to Boston for Game 5. Note that the Celtics made just 26% of threes Sunday while the Heat knocked down 54%. That was your game right there. Rebounds were 57 to 35 in favor of Boston plus a crazy 21 to 1 edge for the Celtics in terms of offensive rebounds. So some of the hustle stats were there for the C's Sunday and odds in terms of regression to the mean certainly would suggest that Miami regresses in Game 4 while the Celtics improve from the floor in Game 4. BOSTON +2 |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Monday Denver Nuggets +3.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - All the pressure on the Lakers here. Nuggets would be okay if there was a game 5 in Denver. LA will not see a Game 5 unless they win tonight. Lakers have not handled the pressure well so far in this series and I like the fact that Nuggets won Game 3 despite Jokic scoring "only" 24 points. This says a lot about how strong this Denver team is and they also got outrebounded in that game. So when you combine all those factors with the fact we can get 3.5 points here with a Nuggets team that has won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 in this post-season, you have value on your side with this one. The Lakers have lost 3 straight of course and are just 7-7 last 14 games in this post-season. Also one of their round two wins came by just 3 points and one of their round one wins came in OT. We have a lot of value here in a game the Nuggets could win outright but also could cash for us even with a SU loss as this could be a tight finish. Keep in mind, the Lakers biggest lead in Game 3 here in LA was 2 points while the Nuggets led by as many as 14. The visitors just have too much for the hosts here. DENVER +3.5 |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Miami Heat +3.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Heat are up 2-0 in this series. Now, because Boston is down 0-2 and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to go down to Miami and turn all this around in one game? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat are 5-0 at home in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 175th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. Considering all of the above factors I do like the Heat to go up 3-0 in this series but the money line is only in the +135 range and, in a case like this, considering I can get 3.5 points with the underdog, I am going to side with the points rather than the money line in case Miami falls just short. But look for the Heat to get the job done yet again as they win their 8th straight home dating back to a loss in way back in late March. MIAMI +3.5 |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets +6 v. Lakers | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +6 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Much is being made of the Lakers returning home and how they are now going to respond and that everything will be okay in La-La Land. I beg to differ! The most recent home game for the Lakers saw them allow 103 field goal attempts (they had just 75) in the 122-101 game that eliminated the Warriors from the post-season. Golden State lost that game for one key reason and that was simply horrible shooting overall including from 3-point land. The home game before that saw the Lakers go 20 of 20 from the line while the Warriors had just 9 free throw attempts. Even with that the Lakers won the game by just 3 points. That said, and with knowledge the free throw disparity between the Nuggets and Lakers will NOT be the same here (Lakers 62 to 26 edge in FT attempts in last 2 home games of series with GSW). Denver has looked very strong so far in this series and remember their 3 post-season defeats have come by 5 and 6 and 7 points and one of those was in OT. This team getting 6 points against a team they are clearly superior to especially when you consider the Nuggets have NO pressure here makes them a VERY dangerous dog in this spot. All the pressure is on the Lakers. The underdog has a great shot at the upset here but certainly the Nuggets should at least do enough for the cover the way I see this one unfolding! 10* DENVER +6 |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Friday Miami Heat +9 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Boston might bounce back and win this game but I am still going to challenge them to win big after we rode Miami in game one to a solid outright upset win. The fact is the Celtics got past a mediocre Atlanta team and a dysfunctional soft weak 76ers team to get to this point. They are facing a real team now in Miami that is also so well coached. The fact is the Celtics are coached by 34 year-old Mazzulla and I think this is the series where his lack of high-level experience is finally going to be exploited. The Hawks did not have the talent to beat this Celtics team. The 76ers did not have the heart or the coaching ability (yes Doc Rivers deserved blame too) to get past Boston as the talent went to waste. This Heat team has talent and hunger and an X-factor in Jimmy Butler as he continues to be playoff Jimmy in this post-season. More of the same here. Give me the points against a Boston team that is 8-10 SU last 18 home games. This team can't even win a good percentage of home games come playoff time let alone cover a double digit spread. Grab the big points as the Heat have played 12 post-season games thus far and only 1 was a loss by a double digit margin. MIAMI +9 |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - This is just a typical contrarian play for me. The zig zag theory is in effect here because when the markets zig I prefer to zag. The point being that most will be backing the Lakers here after they fell just short in Game 1 and so most will be looking at the underdog as that is the traditional zig zag approach. However, what I see in this game is that Denver is going to be a very tough match-up for the Lakers and the Nuggets also will have proven to have learned their lesson from Game 1. What I mean by this is that they let the Lakers get back into the game late as Denver blew a massive and comfortable lead they had for much of the game. The Nuggets will not make the same mistake twice and I look for them to win this one big by double digits. DENVER -5.5 |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Miami Heat +8.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics were gift-wrapped this appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals. They faced a Hawks team that barely made the playoffs. Then they faced a 76ers team that has a guy by the name of Embiid that should return his MVP Trophy and the NBA should reissue it to Jokic. The 76ers Embiid and Harden - to lose those final two games and put the stat lines together they had - is absolutely inexcusable. You did not see heart, you did not see effort, you did not see the heart of a champion. Jimmy Butler has that heart and he is the leader of this team. Even battling through injuries they have made it this far because they are also well-coached unlike Doc Rivers running a 3-ring circus in Philly. The point is that this Boston team is not what they used to be, not the same team they were when Brad Stevens was patrolling the sidelines rather than sitting in the front office. They simply ran into a Philly team that has so much talent but was poorly coached and did not show heart and fortitude. Simply put, the Sixers are a joke. The reason that has so much to do with this play is because now Boston runs into a true foe that can battle them all over the floor. Yes they have injuries but these guys play hard and they are gamers and the energy is infectious all over the floor. So the Heat are going to battle hard. I am not saying they win this game or win this series but the Celtics are about to face something they have not yet faced in this post-season. A team that is talented AND well-coached AND scrappy AND hard-working. The Heat have it all and they will be in this game to the final minute the way I see it. Give me these huge points. MIAMI +8.5 |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 126-132 | Push | 0 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Denver Nuggets -6 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Game 6 of the Lakers prior series they were hosting Golden State. Take a look at this: Warriors 103, Lakers 75. Now, of course we all know this was not the final score or else there would have been a Game 7 at Golden State and the Lakers would not even be here. But the point is the Lakers won Game 6 despite the Warriors having 28 more FG attempts. Yes LA got to the line a ton but the biggest problem was the Warriors shot horribly from the field. That is not happening here with this Lakers opponent. The Nuggets are rested and ready and are strong. Jamaal Murray is on the injury report as questionable with illness but we also saw that in the final game of the series with the Suns. The fact is that Denver has won 8 of 11 post-season games and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a margin of at least 9 points. The Nuggets are so strong at home and the Lakers 4 post-season losses have all come by double digits and this one will too. DENVER -6 |
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05-14-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers Money Line +230 @ Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - The Celtics have home court here so they are practically being handed their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals by most pundits. However, the road team is actually 7-2 SU in Boston's last 9 games. So you might think that stat is just because the Celtics are so strong on the road but it is NOT just that. Boston has actually lost 3 of last 4 home playoff games. Also, the Celtics are only at .500 (straight up!) in their last 20 home post-season games! That said, the ability to get even BETTER than 2 to 1 odds on the Sixers to surprise in this game is just too good to pass up! Many think Philly only goes as Harden goes. However, the 76ers won Game 5 by DOUBLE DIGITS despite Harden making only 4 field goals and just 1 from deep! He did not have a big scoring game yet Philly won the game big and that was here in Boston. Embiid dominated, Maxey had a huge game, Harris was solid in that one and Harden was good but not spectacular. All these guys are capable of stepping up again. Embiid is capable of taking over in this game if he puts his mind to it. Harden could take over and have a massive game and that would make a Sixers win even more likely. but even if Harden does not, I point to the most recent Philly win in this series and that was here in Boston. A key here is confidence and the Sixers have already won here twice in this series. All the pressure is on the Celtics as they are expected to win at home. We all know what often happens when a team is expected to win and they are harboring all the pressure. I look for a loose and relaxed and confident Philly team to shock everyone and get the outright win here! Not only is Boston 1-3 SU last 4 home games, the 76ers are 6-1 SU last 7 road games. They have traveled well and they do it again here. No points needed, the Sixers win this outright. PHILADELPHIA +230 |
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05-12-23 | Warriors +135 v. Lakers | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Friday Golden State Warriors Money Line +135 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Good news for Anthony Davis and the Lakers. Davis got permission from the league to play this game in bubble wrap so he does not get a boo-boo! All kidding aside, a NON-elbow to the head that had Davis in a wheelchair on the way to the locker room is absolutely disgusting to me. It just does not get any softer than that. Especially in the playoffs. If you want out of the game then sit out of the game because your team is getting blown out or because your tired. But don't be so soft with all those theatrics around catching a weak forearm to the side of your head...NOT an elbow and not a heavy hit either. It was players going for a rebound and it happens often in basketball. The point about all this is that it just shows weakness and you never want to show an opponent weakness like that. Especially a hungry team that is a champion and that has new life after that big game 5 win on their home floor. The Warriors now know that it only takes one win and they get Game 7 at home where they have been so strong this season. I know Golden State has struggled on the road this season but they already won Game 5 and Game 7 at Sacramento in that first round series after losing the first two road games against the Kings. So, after losing the first two road games to Lakers, don't be surprised when the Warriors come up strong here on the road in Game 6 with their backs against the wall. They have done it before and they can do it again. GOLDEN STATE +135 |
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05-12-23 | Knicks +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Friday New York Knicks +6.5 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - Waiting has paid off as this line is all the way up to a 6.5 on this one. The Knicks could have closed shop in Game 5 and headed to the golf course but they proved they are hungry and are not done yet. With a win tonight Game 7 is in New York. Wouldn't that be nice? Yes it would and we all saw what the Celtics did at Philly last night in a similar situation. No the Knicks are not the Celtics but the Heat are certainly not the Sixers either! The point is that an outright upset would not surprise me at all here and yet we have 6.5 points to work with here. I'll take it. Two of the Knicks losses in this series have been by single digits and their confidence is back after winning game 5 at home. Jimmy Butler is the best player on the floor for sure but the Knicks have shown they have other players who will step up for them for sure and they are hungry here and will be scrappy on the road after the locker-room incident they had here in Game 4. They want tonight to be different and they have the horses to get it done! NEW YORK KNICKS +6.5 |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +136 v. Suns | Top | 125-100 | Win | 136 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets +135 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10 ET - The Nuggets 3 wins in this series have all been by double digits and have come by an average margin of 15 points. Denver was down by only 2 entering the 4th quarter of the Game 3 loss and only down by 3 points with under 30 seconds go in the Game 4 loss. Both those defeats by margins of 7 or less points for Denver and the point is that the Nuggets have certainly had the more dominant victories so far in this series. This is the type of game that the Suns could really use Chris Paul. He is still out though and this is an elimination game and there is good reason this line is as low as a 2.5 on this one. This looks like the game where we finally see a road team get a victory in this series. The Nuggets have momentum and confidence and all the pressure is on the Suns here since they are the ones facing elimination. I do not think this ends well for Phoenix as Nuggets roll again even though they are on the road this time. DNEVER +135 |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +120 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers +120 vs Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers are rolling now off B2B wins and have won 7 of 9 games in the post-season including 3 of 4 at home. Boston has won just 4 of last 9 post-season games and they continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. The Celtics just are not as strong nor as cohesive of a group right now. The Sixers certainly know they need to end this thing on their home floor tonight and avoid having to go back up to Boston. The 76ers fortunes turned with that Game 4 overtime win and that changed everything for this team. They are starting to believe and showed in Game 5 at Boston that they can be very very dominant. That said, the momentum and confidence and home floor should all add up to another win for this tough 76ers team tonight as they finally win a playoff series over a long-time nemesis. PHILADELPHIA +120 |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday OVER 225.5 in Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - We have all witnessed this stretch of unders in this series since Game 1 snuck over the total. However, Game 2 was one of the worst over beats of all time with 2 points in the final 4 minutes of the game. Then Game 3 fell just short and then Game 4 had a very ugly 4th quarter. I look for this game to be the one where both teams finally put it all together with a ton of scoring. The Lakers going in for the kill and to end this series but Warriors will be pushing hard on their home floor to stay alive. I look for them to take a run and gun approach at home where they are so comfortable. Look for plenty of hot outside shooting from GS on their home floor but they again will struggle to get stops inside and Lakers will score a ton in the paint. OVER 225.5 in Golden State |
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05-10-23 | Heat +148 v. Knicks | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Miami Heat Money Line +145 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - The Heat want this more and are on a mission with Jimmy Butler playing extremely well but also the role player contributing greatly to the cause. The Knicks just do not have the depth to match the Heat which is especially surprising because Miami has been dealing with injuries. But the Heat are very well coached and the Knicks just can not seem to match the adjustments Miami continues to make on the fly and it is keeping New York off balance. I like to fade the masses and most will be looking at New York at home laying a small number but we do not even need the points here with the other side in my opinion. The Heat want to finish this and get rest for the 2nd round. The Knicks know the handwriting is on the wall as the next game would be at Miami if they even win this game. I think New York is starting to have internal doubt and it will show up on the floor tonight. Keep in mind, the only game the Knicks won in this series was when Jimmy Butler did not play and the Knicks still barely won. Butler is questionable for tonight but all signs points to him playing. Upset time. The Heat are winning the hustle stats and just want it more. This team has that X factor. They are going for it and the Knicks just have not been able to match that. MIAMI +145 |
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05-09-23 | 76ers +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - This one is all about the line value. The series is tied 2-2. Each team has won on the other teams home floor. Yet home floor is of course a factor in the lines. That said, this is big value with the big points here. The Sixers got that huge win in Game 4 as the Game 1 Harden showed up again and simply would not let Philly lose. Of course if the Sixers lost that game they were likely finished as they would have been down 3-1 and would have had to win twice in Boston. They were very close to being in a nearly impossible situation. However, oftentimes one key break like this can lead to a domino effect and now the 76ers could shock here. They have confidence and they have momentum and here we can have a lot of value because of the 7.5 points. We do not need Philly to win outright to cash our ticket and yet the fact is they already won here once and this Celtics team is not as strong as recent seasons. The Sixers have really closed the gap on Boston - finally - and this could be the year they finally get past their nemesis. This year is definitely different as the Celtics won the most recent playoff series by a combined 8 games to 1 but that was with Brad Stevens as their head coach. Now it is 34-year old Joe Mazzulla. The Sixers might find a way tonight for the SU but, either way, I am not expecting much of a margin in this game and this one should down to the wire. Yes I know Embiid is questionable but I can't see him missing a game of this magnitude. PHILADELPHIA +7.5 |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +135 v. Lakers | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Monday Golden State Warriors Money Line +135 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Golden State is going to have to win a game at LA if they want to win this series. After the shocking Game 1 upset, the Warriors then blasted the Lakers in Game 2. However, after that big win, the Warriors then blew an early double digit lead versus LA in Game 3 and got blasted from the 2nd quarter onward. The Warriors lost the game by 30 but actually had 11 more shots from the field. The difference in the game was the Lakers shot nearly 50% from downtown while the Warriors were held under 30% from deep. If you flip flop those percentages and then apply it to the 3 point attempts of each team it translates to the Warriors winning Game 3 by 15 points instead of losing it by 30. The point is that we now have some value with Golden State based on those unusual results Saturday. The Warriors were stronger on the boards and in terms of points in the paint in Game 3 and I expect another big effort here as this is a key game for GS to avoid the dreaded 3-1 hole. Look for them to be successful in avoiding it and so I am passing on the 3 points and grabbing the plus money here. GOLDEN STATE +135 |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +3 | Top | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - This is it for Philly for all intents and purposes. If they lose this game they are down 3 games to 1 and would have to win twice at Boston to win this series. Basically this game is about as must-win as it gets without truly being an elimination game. Now, of course, just because a team needs to win does not mean it will win. However, the motivation and hunger and desire and home court edge all are with Philadelphia in this one. Also, a nice angle supports this play as Philly enters this game off B2B losses after winning 5 straight games to open up the post-season. Note that you have to go all the way back to October to find the last time Philly entered a home game off consecutive losses and did not win the game. Indeed, from late October onward, the 76ers are a PERFECT 5-0 SU when they are at home and are entering the game on a losing streak of at least 2 games. Those 5 wins were by an average margin of 11 points per game and all 5 of them were by at least 8 points. However, the money line on this game is only in the +120 range and we can get as much as +3 with the spread currently so I am going to suggest grabbing the points just in case Philly falls just short here. However, I absolutely expect they are going to get another win here and improve to 6-0 SU in this situation! PHILADELPHIA +3 |
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05-06-23 | Warriors +135 v. Lakers | Top | 97-127 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Golden State Warriors Money Line +135 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - The Warriors shot extremely well in Game Two and they won't shoot that well again here. However, they also won that game by 27 points and we don't need a big win, we just need any win here. I am not taking the points as we will not need them. There is a reason that the Warriors are such a small road dog here even though they had such a rotten season on the road. Keep in mind, it is now playoff time and, when the chips were down, they did what they had to do and they beat the Kings not once but TWICE on the road. So here they are looking to make it 3 straight road wins but public bettors are going to be all over the Lakers laying a short number at home. I smell a fishy line here and I love Golden State in this spot. Keep in mind the Warriors also shot well in Game 1 against the Lakers too. So Game 2 might have been excessive but it was not necessarily a fluke. They Warriors are hot right now and playing with confidence as they also have won B2B road games. The only reason they lost Game 1 was because they got outscored by 20 points at the free throw line. So they should be up 2-0 in this series. Instead it is tied 1-1 but, after tonight, they'll have that series lead they wanted. GOLDEN STATE +135 |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +160 v. Heat | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Saturday New York Knicks Money Line +150 @ Miami Heat @ 3:30 ET - The Knicks are dominating the rebounding battle so far in this series. The series is tied 1-1 but New York would already be up 2-0 if they had just shot better in Game 1. In the first game of this series the Knicks made just 60% from the free throw line and 20% from 3-point land and that was the difference in the game. Miami won that game by 7 but they outscored them by 11 from free throw line and 18 from three point line and that is 29 point variance right there. I like fading the masses and you know folks are going to be lined up on the Heat here because they are off a loss and now back on their home floor. NEW YORK KNICKS +150 |
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05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +115 | Top | 114-102 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers Money Line +120 vs Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - Philadelphia is 8-1 SU the last 9 times they have been at home and coming off a loss. They did not just lose Game 2 either. The 76ers got absolutely thrashed in Game 2. The Sixers will respond huge here as that is their first loss of the post-season and it was ugly. The Celtics are just 10-10 SU in last 20 road games. We could get up to 2.5 points here though 2 seems to be the dominant number and I don't think we'll need any points. I am grabbing the plus money return on the money line. Look for Philly to improve to 9-1 (90%) SU the last 10 times they have entered a home game off a loss. PHILADELPHIA +120 |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 100-127 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER 227 in Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - The Game One match-up went over the total despite having only 45 points scored in the 4th quarter. The Game One match-up went over the total despite Warriors scoring only 5 points from the free throw line. Remember, they are the home team and should get a few more calls here than that unusual result at home in the loss. Game One went over the total despite the Lakers hitting only 6 of 25 from three point land. So, the point is, we should see this one get into at least the 230s when you consider numbers like those. I am sure the Warriors are going to bounce back after that home loss and Curry should have a huge game. Also, I am sure that the Lakers are going to continue to dominate in terms of getting a lot of inside scoring. I feel each team has confidence in a strategy on offense that their opponent simply can not stop! OVER 227 in Golden State |
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05-03-23 | 76ers +10 v. Celtics | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +10 @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - When I played Philly in Game One I definitely did not expect them to win outright. However, now that they did this really has everyone lining up on Boston here. In the traditional zig-zag theory of handicapping, when the markets zig I like to zag. So, the point is, this is a bit of a contrarian play but I am confident the 76ers will stay within this inflated number here. The Celtics have not been the same team defensively recently as evident in the Hawks series. Also, as mentioned in my Game One write-up: the 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 2 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also still have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. So I am sure Harden will not have such a big game in this one like he did in Game One but others are certainly capable of huge performances too. This team about much more than just Embiid. Also, the Celtics never led Game One by more than 12 points. Just so much value with the big points here the way I see it. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10 |
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05-02-23 | Heat +6.5 v. Knicks | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Miami Heat +6.5 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - This is too many points the way I see it. The Heat have Jimmy Butler listed as questionable for this one but I see no way he will not play here. Also, the Knicks do have Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson both listed as questionable on their report. It is not like New York is 100 percent healthy. As for Miami they have been missing guys for awhile and yet still others have stepped up and I look for them to continue to do. I grabbed the money line in Game 1 of this series in Miami's upset and was happy to get the bigger payback but this time I feel the Knicks might scratch out a tight win and so the value is with the points in this one. As I mentioned in my Game 1 write-up, "The Knicks just beat Cleveland. However, the Cavaliers had not even been in the playoffs for 5 years. Now New York faces a real playoff team. The Heat are in the post-season for the 4th straight year. They have been to the NBA Finals once and the Conference Finals twice in the past 3 seasons alone. They just beat a Bucks team that not only had a fantastic regular season, they have a great recent playoff reputation as well with 7 straight playoff appearances and also a recent NBA Championship. The Heat lost guys to injury and it did not matter. The key is that it was NOT just about Jimmy Butler either. Yes he is the star but other guys have stepped up. If these guys can beat the Bucks and score on them like they did, you know the Knicks are going to have to really amp up their offensive game to have a chance in this series. New York averaged 100 ppg in the 5 games of the series with the Cavs." All of the above considered, getting about a half-dozen points to work with here is a great value for us. MIAMI +6.5 |
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05-01-23 | Suns +165 v. Nuggets | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Monday Phoenix Suns +165 @ Denver Nuggets @ 10:05 ET - The Suns lost Game 1 by 18 points. It was a disastrous 2nd quarter - lost the period by 18 points - that was the difference in the game. Well that plus the fact that Denver outscored Phoenix by 27 points from 3-point land. Make no mistake though, the Nuggets were the right side in Game 1 and they did get the job done. However, I love Phoenix on the money line in this bounce back spot in Game 2. Note that Phoenix had won 11 of 14 games before the loss at Denver in Game 1. The Nuggets were 6-6 last 12 games before that big Game 1 win. They looked great in that game for sure but the Suns will make adjustments in Game 2 and they are an uber-talented team. As noted in my Game 1 write-up, I also like the fact that Phoenix beat the Clippers to get here, even though Kawhi missed much of the series whereas the Nuggets took on a dysfunctional Timberwolves team in round one. The right adjustments will be made here and the road team gets it done outright. No points needed. Grab the line value. PHOENIX +165 |
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05-01-23 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 1 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10.5 |
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04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings -120 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Sacramento Kings -1.5 or money line vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:30 ET - The Warriors had their chance in Game 6. They got blown out. That is really an inexcusable loss and one that, no matter who you are, is tough to bounce back from. This is particularly true for a Golden State team that played so poorly outside of their own arena this season. That said, tremendous line value here with a resurgent and confident Kings team on their home floor. Remember they won the first two games of this series at home but then Sacramento lost a key game 5 and that should have been it for them. Instead they dug deep and got the win in Game 6 and turned back to their defense which had keyed them in the first two games also. That said, they are sure to be relentless on defense in this one with a chance to get a huge win in front of their own fans to advance to the 2nd round. SACRAMENTO -1.5 or money line |
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04-30-23 | Heat +175 v. Knicks | Top | 108-101 | Win | 175 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Miami Heat +175 @ New York Knicks @ 1 ET - The Knicks just beat Cleveland. However, the Cavaliers had not even been in the playoffs for 5 years. Now New York faces a real playoff team. The Heat are in the post-season for the 4th straight year. They have been to the NBA Finals once and the Conference Finals twice in the past 3 seasons alone. They just beat a Bucks team that not only had a fantastic regular season, they have a great recent playoff reputation as well with 7 straight playoff appearances and also a recent NBA Championship. The Heat lost guys to injury and it did not matter. The key is that it was NOT just about Jimmy Butler either. Yes he is the star but other guys have stepped up. If these guys can beat the Bucks and score on them like they did, you know the Knicks are going to have to really amp up their offensive game to have a chance in this series. New York averaged 100 ppg in the 5 games of the series with the Cavs. I am not saying the Heat win this series necessarily but I do feel a Game One shock for the Knicks as this is not a playoff-adverse Cavaliers team they are playing now. They are now playing a very confident and dangerous Heat team. No points needed. MIAMI +175 |
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04-29-23 | Suns +130 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Phoenix Suns Money Line +130 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - Two very strong teams. It is hard to differentiate much between them. That is part of the reason I like the plus money here. But another reason I like it is because the big story heading into the Suns/Clippers series was a healthy Durant and he certainly has made a difference on this Phoenix team. The big story heading into the Nuggets/Wolves series was a dysfunctional Minnesota team with locker-room issues like Gobert wanting to fight teammates. In all seriousness Denver was not really tested in the first round because of the lack of cohesion of the Minny team they faced. Now the Nuggets get tested in a major way and I feel this game one could be very tough on them. In the regular season (but keep in mind KD very few games in a Suns uniform), Phoenix went 17-24 SU on the road and Denver went 34-7 SU at home. Consider those numbers and now consider that the odds makers opened up this game one line at damn near a pick'em! Do you think the odds makers are fools? Of course they are not and this line has already moved toward the Nuggets because of market perception. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the move. Not only that, I don't want the points. I am grabbing the extra value on the money line. PHOENIX +130 |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies +186 v. Lakers | Top | 85-125 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Friday Memphis Grizzlies +185 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:30 ET - Maybe LeBron is getting old? All kidding aside (and Brooks talking trash after Game 2 is not smart!), the fact is we do have great line value here with the Grizzlies on the money line. I expect this series to go back to Memphis. The Lakers had a chance to finish off a Grizzlies team that could have had some self-doubt after losing both games at LA including a gut-wrenching OT loss in Game 4. That should have finished the Grizzlies off and the Lakers should have gotten the job done in Game 5 but did not. This could come back to bite them. LeBron had a horrible Game 5 and he'll look to dig deep and come up big in Game 6 here. The problem is that the Grizzlies have something again heading into Game 6 which they really did not have heading into Game 5: CONFIDENCE! Memphis has new life and lets not forget they could have easily won 3 of the last 4 games. One could argue they never should have lost Game 4 in OT at LA. So the point is that the Grizzlies have arguably been the better team since the series-opening ugly loss and yet they are catching sizable points here. We will not need them. Look for the Grizzlies to build off the momentum and take advantage of a Lakers team that is just not what it use to be. It was not just Morant, Bane and Jackson that were the story in Game 5. Bench guys like Jones, Aldma and Kennard all had strong +/- ratings in limited minutes while the Lakers bench had 4 guys with ratings of -18 or worse! This series is not over yet. See you in Memphis for Game 7 as Grizzlies get win! 10* MEMPHIS +185 |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Friday Sacramento Kings +7.5 @ Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - Line moving toward Golden State at home, of course. I am grabbing the value on the other side of the move. The Kings still believe and with one win they send this series back to Sacramento for Game 7. There has been one blowout in this series. The other 4 games have been decided by an average margin of 4.8 points. The Kings are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of at least two games. Not only is that impressive, we do not need a SU win to get the cash in this case. We also have 7.5 points to work with. I like our chances! SACRAMENTO +7.5 |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | Top | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +7 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Some might look and say there is no way the Hawks have a chance here because it was a Trae Young miracle in Game 5. While certainly his feats were ultra-impressive, the fact is that the Hawks played an all-around great game. The rest of the team shot 14 of 28 from distance plus contributed 81 points and played good clean basketball by limiting turnovers. This was on the road AT Boston. So I am not saying the Hawks will win this game outright but I do feel we have excellent line value here with the big points at home and the fact that Atlanta has shown they will not quit in this series. The Hawks home record this season is nearly identical to the Celtics road record this season and expecting Game 6 to go to the wire is really not asking too much here. This game could go either way late the way I see it so having the 7 points on your side is a huge benefit. 10* ATLANTA +7 |
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04-26-23 | Warriors v. Kings +115 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings +115 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The home team has won all 4 of the games in this series. The Warriors had the biggest home/road dichotomy of any team in the NBA this season. In fact, the home team - including post-season - is now 67-19 in all their game this season. I am riding with the home team again in this one. I know that De'Aaron Fox is hurting for Sacramento but he has said he is playing and is ready to go and his fracture is an avulsion fracture on his finger. The Kings very nearly are up 3 games to 1 in this series but fell just 1 point short in Game 4 at Golden State. I do not expect them to be denied if this one is a tight finish as they get the job done at home. I will grab them as a SU money line dog here as the SU run for the home team in Warriors games this season is 67-19 as noted above. The Kings will be stronger defensively at home even if Fox is not 100% and also, the Warriors tend to not shoot as well on the road. 10* SACRAMENTO +115 |
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04-25-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 229 in Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 ET - We should see plenty of points in this one as I just don't think the defensive intensity will be there. Atlanta was not good on that side of the court to begin with and now they know the handwriting is on the wall that their season will end tonight. As for the Celtics, they realize too that they should easily take this game and I expect them to play a very free-flowing game tonight as a result. The are 13.5 point favorites with good reason. The key to the value here is that the total has dropped a little because Dejounte Murray is out for Atlanta. However, the pace and open looks should be perfect for an over here. Note that Boston has averaged 123 points in the last 3 games and the Hawks have averaged 125.5 ppg the last 2 games. 7 of the 8 quarters in the last two games between these teams have had at least 58 points scored. That averages to 232 points per game and again there has been only one quarter that totaled less than 58. So the point is that the pacing has been consistent and, even without Murray, the Hawks have no choice but to run and gun here and play their typical style. The are not going to win a half-court grinder with the Celtics. So points will be aplenty here in a free-flowing game the way I see it. That said, extra value too with this total having dropped a few points from its opener due to Murray's suspension. 10* OVER 229 in Boston |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies +170 v. Lakers | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies Money Line +165 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Give credit to the Lakers for answering the call in Game 3 after the Game 2 loss at Memphis. Now it is the Grizzlies turn in Game 4. Note that Memphis was down huge early in Game 3 but then played much better the rest of the way. The Grizzlies will carry some momentum from that right into tonight's game and they will certainly not have such a huge early hole to dig out of. Los Angeles is breathing a sigh of relief after the win Saturday and I would not be surprised to see them having losing some of that mental edge here that they had so strongly in Game 3. For sure LeBron had extra motivation after Brooks comments after Game 2. Now that Brooks has been eating crow so to to speak and the Lakers could let up after the easy win Saturday, Monday is going to see the Grizzlies bring a huge effort and that should be enough for the big win. Note that Memphis wrapped up the regular season having gone 5-0 SU when off a SU loss. They also answered the bell in the post-season with a Game 2 win after a Game 1 loss. I look for the Grizzlies to continue this pattern and again respond off a loss. No points needed! I will grab another money line dog here. 10* MEMPHIS +165 |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +145 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 145 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +145 vs Denver Nuggets @ 9:30 ET - The Wolves had one 6-game losing streak this season. That was the only time they had a losing streak more than 3 games. In fact, they were 7-0 the other 7 times they entered a game on a 3-game losing streak. So, for the season, the Timberwolves are 7-1 when entering a game on exactly a 3-game losing streak. That is exactly the situation here and they are at home and they are playing for professional pride and to not get swept out of the post-season. I look for this to all add up to an upset win for the home dog here! The Nuggets have won 4 straight games dating back to winning their regular season finale as well. Note that Denver only won a 5th straight game twice in seven chances when in this situation. Indeed Nuggets just 2-5 when entering a game on a winning streak of exactly 4 games. So the odds favor an upset here when you look at the history of both teams this season and I like the fact that Minnesota did a great job of getting to the free throw line in Game 3 but lost the game due to Denver having insanely good shooting from the field. That was completely the difference in that one. The Wolves, behind professional pride, find a way to get this win tonight and force Denver to be content with likely taking this series at home in Game Five as I just can not see, from what I have seen the last two games, this Wolves team being swept. There is not that big of a disparity between these teams as anyone who has watched Games 2 and 3 knows. 10* MINNESOTA +145 |
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04-22-23 | 76ers -125 v. Nets | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -120 or Point Spread -1.5 @ Brooklyn Nets @ 1 ET - I waited on this one hoping we might even see the line tick down to a pick'em but it looks like it is holding at no lower than 1.5 as of about 4 hours before tip-off so we will go ahead and pull the trigger on this one now. It is all about the value here. Philly has won the first 3 games of this series but now because Embiid is out they are a very small favorite in Game 4. I feel it will prove to be too small. Philly gets the cover here as the Sixers have had many big games this season even when Embiid was out. Also, Harden was absolutely 100% wrongly ejected in Game 3 for a flagrant foul that perhaps was not even a regular foul! You know that Harden is going to play this game with a burr under his saddle as a result. Philly will come out strong here and look to end this series Saturday afternoon to maximize their rest before the 2nd round begins. They want to finish this now and they still have the talent edge in this match-up even with Embiid out. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-21-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +118 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Friday Minnesota Timberwolves Money +120 vs Denver Nuggets @ 9:30 ET - Bad beats are part of the business and we caught yet another one in the NBA Wednesday when the Timberwolves +8.5 lost by 9 points after definitely not looking like it was going to go that way late. I look for Minnesota to build off the huge 3rd quarter they had at Denver in Game Two. They ended up then falling short in the 4th quarter of that game but the late surge there on the road plus now coming home will give the T-wolves the edge they need to get over the top here. They generally, through the years in their better seasons, are a very strong home team and they also have won their last two home games by a combined 30 points. The Nuggets, generally struggle on the road through the years, and had a losing road record this season and I look for a Wolves team, determined to get back into this series, to be the stronger and more aggressive team here. The motivation factor is huge for Minny here and they know they can play with these guys after giving a much better effort in Game 2 after getting blown out in Game 1. They will do just that and we do not need any points here. MINNESOTA +120 |
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04-20-23 | Kings +200 v. Warriors | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Sacramento Kings Money Line +200 @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The Warriors simply must win at home in Game 3 because they are down 2-0 in this series and are so strong at home...this is the prevailing wisdom on this game. I disagree completely and feel we will not even need points here to get the cash. First off, one of the Warriors home edges usually is getting teams flying in from elsewhere and possibly playing in a back to back, etc. Of course that is not the case here as Sacramento is not far at all from Oakland. Secondly, the Warriors are going to be without Draymond Green who is suspended for this one after the Sabonis stomp to the chest. That said, I like to look at +/- more than just traditional stats when it comes to NBA and the Warriors have played the Kings about equal when Green is on the floor in this series. Without him they are going to have rely more on others and yes they have Steph Curry but another key guy is Klay Thompson and he has a (-) in double digits for each of the first two games. In other words, they have not been good with him out there. So Green's absence may matter more than you would think plus Payton, Poole, and Wiggins are all questionable for this game. Even if they play they will not be 100%. So this is a battered and bruised Warriors team both in the form of injury as well as ego. Their swagger is gone. Sacramento has taken it and they are not going to let it go either. I love the fact the spread was down to a 5 but is now going back up the 6.5 range. People just don't think the Warriors can possibly lose here but this is not the GS teams of old folks. That is also why they are in their first 2-0 series deficit under Kerr. Not only that, the Warriors are without Green and have other banged up guys. The healthy road dog goes in for the kill here. SACRAMENTO Money Line +200 |
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04-19-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 - The Wolves did not just lose Game One at Denver, they got completely embarrassed. An unbelievable 109 to 80 loss for Minny in the first game will also bring an equally unbelievable focus from the losers of Game One. Of course the Nuggets are still the better team overall but this is one of those games where it is all about who wants it more. I am not saying that Minnesota will win this outright, though that would not be a total surprise either, but I am saying they should get at least the cover in this one. Remember when they lost at LA against the Lakers in the play-in round everyone thought the T-wolves were finished. They responded by blasting OKC by 25 points. We will see a response from the Wolves here. MINNESOTA +8.5 |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER 229.5 in Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7 ET - The Celtics had 74 points at halftime of Game One but could take their foot off the gas because the Hawks shot so poorly. I do not expect a repeat of that as the Hawks did manage 80 points over the final 3 quarters of action and this is despite a horrific overall shooting performance. The pace was there for an over Saturday as the Celtics had nearly 90 shots from the field and Atlanta had nearly 100 shots from the field. The problem for the Hawks is they shot 38.8% from the field including just 5 of 29 from three point land. Look for a big bounce back from Atlanta here in terms of their shooting. However, they have shown in all their match-ups with Boston this season, they just can not stop the Celtics from lighting them up on the scoreboard. Again, the Celts were able to take their foot off their gas in game one but I expect the Hawks to keep this one close enough that the hosts will have to score well throughout. The end result should be a game getting well into the 230s Tuesday. OVER 229.5 in Boston |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | Top | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -10 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers never trailed in Game 1. They led the game by as many as 25 points and won the game by 20 points. The scary thing for Brooklyn is that the Nets shot 56% from the field and 45% from 3-point land and yet still got destroyed. Part of the problem was turnovers for Brooklyn but Philly had 14 steals in the game so it is not like it was all on the Nets. The fact is that Philadelphia was able to create an uncomfortable environment for Brooklyn in that one and I expect more of the same here. Keep in mind, Philly won every single quarter. The Nets were outscored by at least 3 points in each of the 4 quarters. The Sixers bench also dominated Brooklyn's subs when you compare that aspect of the game as well. Top notch talent, depth, overall team quality...the 76ers have it all in this match-up and they prove that again Monday. I am never too fond of laying big numbers but it is again justified here. PHILADELPHIA -10 |