Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 10:05 ET - The Spurs shot a very high percentage in their Game 6 win and that included both from inside and outside the arc. San Antonio will not repeat that on the road. First off the Spurs have lost 6 of their last 7 road trips to Denver. Secondly, the Nuggets are fired up after letting the elimination opportunity slip away in the 2nd half of that game at San Antonio. Denver, when playing on their home floor off a SU road loss is a perfect 9-0 SU the last 9 times! You can easily see why it is logical for the Nuggets to get this home win. However, what about the cover? Note that each of the last 5 games in this series have been decided by 9 or more points. Also, 6 of the Nuggets last 7 wins have come by a margin of 9 or more points. Each of the Spurs last 6 losses have come by 7 or more points. San Antonio shot a ridiculous 57% from the field in Game 6. The last 7 times the Spurs are off a game where they shot 48% or better from the field, they've gone 1-6 ATS in their next game. You can see whey the odds strongly favor a solid home win for the Nuggets in this win. 10* DENVER |
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04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +10 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:05 ET - With their upset loss at home on Wednesday, the Warriors are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Golden State continues to be over-valued and now they are laying double digits on the road in a game where the Clippers absolutely will not quit. Once again it is "win or go home" for Los Angeles and I look for another huge effort here just like we saw in Game 5. The Clippers are 13-7 ATS when trailing in a playoff series and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. In Friday games this season LA is 10-4 ATS (including 12-2 SU). Though I don't another outright upset tonight I am fully expecting that the Clippers stay within single digits in this one. Keep in mind, after the Clips got blown out in Game 1 of this series, 3 of the last 4 games have been decided by single digits. This one will be too. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets +3 v. Spurs | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are not the team they use to be and that fact continues to show in the post-season results. San Antonio has lost 11 of its last 14 playoff games, got eliminated from the playoffs in the first round last season, and is about to suffer that same fate this season. Yes, the Spurs have home court on their side in this Game 6 but I love the fact that is allowing us to get the Nuggets +3 in this one. Denver has not only won the last two games (including Game 4 in SA), they've dominated as they've won each of the last two games by double digits. Keep in mind, the Spurs have not held the Nuggets below 108 points in ANY of the last 4 games. Conversely, San Antonio has been held to 105 points or less in 4 of the 5 games. It is easy to see which team is executing better and I look for Denver to close this out tonight but am happy to grab the 3 points as added "insurance" in this one. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they held their opponent to 90 points or loss. The Spurs are 11-17 ATS when they enter a game having allowed 105 points or more in 3 straight games. Simply put, San Antonio hasn't been able to get stops when they need them throughout the majority of this series. That problem continues to ail them tonight. 10* DENVER |
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04-24-19 | Jazz +8 v. Rockets | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz played much better defense at home than they did in the first two games of this series at Houston. Look for Utah to carry over that strong play to this game. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 3 by only 3 points and then won Game 4 by double digits. Their confidence is growing with each game and the Rockets are now going to be in a fierce war to try and put this team away. The Jazz are 14-6 SU their last 20 games and 4 of the 6 losses have come by 6 points or less. That means if you had Utah +7 or more in their last 20 games you would have cashed 90% of your bets! The point being that, despite how the first two games of this series played out, the Jazz are not an easy team to blowout. With the strong defense expected to continue here, I look for Utah to hang tough with the Rockets throughout Game 5. The Jazz are getting more points tonight (8 or 8.5) than they did in the first two games of this series (6.5) and this is even though they are playing their best basketball of the series right now. I am grabbing the added value and expecting an absolute war tonight that ends up being decided by just a single possession or two at the most when the final horn sounds. 10* UTAH |
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04-23-19 | Nets v. 76ers OVER 229.5 | Top | 100-122 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The first game in this series stayed under the total because the Sixers shot an unreal 3 of 25 from three point land on their home floor! The next two games went over the total and then Game 4 stayed under the total as both teams shot less than 32% from beyond the arc. In other words, that was a statistical anomaly and a repeat of that is unlikely. In fact, I like that fact the Nets averaged 117 points per game in the two games played here in Philly while the 76ers have responded very well since the Game 1 loss. Not only has Philly won 3 straight games, they've averaged 129 points per game in the last 3 games. The Sixers are hungry to close this out but also feeling a lot less pressure since they were able to eke out a tight win at Brooklyn in Game 4. The point is that I look for a very loose Philadelphia team (no pressure) to be shooting the ball very tonight in Game 5 but I also would not be surprised to see them also playing loose on defense. After all, defense is certainly not the strength of the Sixers. Couple that with the fact that these teams are both comfortable playing at a fast pace and that both teams shot less than their typical 3-point shooting percentage in Game 4, and you have the perfect recipe for an over here. The over is 8-3 this season when the 76ers enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The over is a long-term 13-5 in Sixers games since mid-March. Also, the total on this one has dropped from 231 to 229.5 and that adds some value as well. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-22-19 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 217.5 | Top | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Even though the Pistons have been held to 38.5% or less from the field in all 3 games of this series, 2 of the 3 have gone over the total. Of course part of the reason for that is the fact Detroit has been struggling to stop the Bucks but the other reason is that the pace has certainly been there for an over as well. The Pistons have averaged 96 field goal attempts per game so far in this series. With tonight being "now or never" for Detroit, I look for another game to again feature a good pace for an over. The Pistons will go "all out" here at home and note that the over is 8-2 in the last 10 games for Milwaukee and also 3-1 when the Bucks are leading in a playoff series. The fact is Detroit can't stop the Bucks but I also don't expect the Pistons to go away without a fight tonight as they look to avoid suffering a sweep and having it occur on their home floor. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 road games. The Bucks have averaged 124.1 points per game in their last 10 games. If Milwaukee hits their average here and the odds makers are correct about the line (Bucks by a dozen) you have a 124-112 type game and that has this one ending well above the current total of 217.5 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9.5 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - This is an early start time (12:35 PM PT) and the Warriors haven't been at their best in these types of games this season. In fact, Golden State is 2-8 ATS in Sunday games this season while the Clippers have gone 10-5 ATS in Sunday games this season. After LA got thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in Thursday's action, they've now had two full off days to think about it and build up their intensity for Game 4. I look for a huge effort from the Clippers as the Warriors are unlikely to shoot better than 70% in the first quarter like they did in the big Game 3 win. Going further back, Golden State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 Sunday games so this hasn't been just a one-season trend for them. Perhaps too many weekend distractions for the best team in the NBA is the culprit but whatever the theory it is not a trend I will ignore. I also love the fact this line is climbing up close to a full 10 points because I know the Clippers aren't going to lay down here. They're going to be going hard for the full 48 and if they fall short I expect it to be just single digits! 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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04-20-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 207.5 | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets @ 5:35 ET - The Nuggets Murray, Barton, and Harris combined to make just 8 of 25 from the field and only 2 of 6 from the free throw line in Thursday's loss. Even with those horrible numbers Denver still scored 108 points and the game easily went over the total. Now we're seeing Saturday's total having dropped from an opener of 211 all the way down to a 207.5 and the value is with the over here. The Spurs have been getting strong guard play and the Nuggets had strong guard play in Game 2 before faltering in San Antonio in Game 3. Both those games went over the total and I expect that trend to continue here as Denver's backcourt responds after a poor game Thursday but they continue to struggle to stop White and DeRozan for the Spurs. The Nuggets don't want to get into a half-court game here with the Spurs as that plays right into the strength of San Antonio. Denver, facing a nearly insurmountable 3-1 hole with a loss here are going to try and play this game at their tempo and "force the issue" with quick buckets in transition and not allowing the Spurs defense to get fully set. Denver has scored 108 points or more in 6 of its last 8 games. SA has scored an average of 113.5 points per game in their last 17 home games. Take advantage of the line move here and expect another very entertaining battle with big scoring runs from each team at points throughout this game just like we've seen in the last two between these foes. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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04-20-19 | 76ers -117 v. Nets | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 3:05 ET - As I mentioned Thursday, the 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2 and that has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series has shifted north and Philly won Game 3 and now looks to sweep the two games in Brooklyn with another strong effort in Game 4. The extra rest helps Philadelphia's Joel Embiid as he was able to sit out Game 3 and I know he is listed as doubtful for this game as he continues to battle with knee issues. However, considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays in Game 4 on Saturday. Keep in mind, he was also listed as doubtful for Game 1 of this series but he ended up playing. The Sixers have been getting strong play from other big men when Embiid has sat so they've survived his absences. Note that Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 1.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. In fact, with the money line very low here that is how I would recommend playing this one. Lay the short price on the money line. As for Brooklyn, of course they would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-7 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 23 of the Nets last 24 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5 | Top | 98-93 | Push | 0 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Friday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Magic have had two full days of rest to ponder getting blasted at Toronto in Game 2 of this series. Orlando, previous to the ugly loss Tuesday, had won 12 of its last 14 games prior to the Game 2 loss. Also, the Magic are certainly happy to be back at home where, since January 31st, they have won 13 of their last 14 games including 9 straight. Yes they played some weaker foes in that stretch but the victories included wins over 4 playoff teams including the 76ers and Warriors. At the very least the Magic have earned some confidence based on their home performance the past 2 and 1/2 months! Orlando also is 15-5 ATS this season versus Atlantic Division foes. The Raptors are still just 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 5-11 ATS in Friday games this season. Even including Tuesday's blowout win, this is a Toronto team that is just 9-13 SU and ATS in playoff games. The line opened up at a 4 on this one but has moved to a 5 as the Raptors have the attention of the market. That means even more value with a Magic team that is going to be very tough to put away on their home floor and has a great shot at the upset! They will respond after Tuesday's ugly loss. 10* ORLANDO |
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04-18-19 | 76ers -2.5 v. Nets | Top | 131-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2. That has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series shifts north. The extra rest helps Philadelphia as Joel Embiid continues to battle with knee issues. Considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, he is likely to be very strong for Game 3 on Thursday. Also, his back-up Boban Marjanovic had a very solid Game 2 and that is a good sign for the 76ers. Note that Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 2.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. Brooklyn, of course, would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-6 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 22 of the Nets last 23 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-17-19 | Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter Sunday and still almost covered the spread. Indiana made a TOTAL of 8 field goals in the 2nd half Sunday and still almost covered the spread. You get my point. That was UGLY basketball and yet Boston still barely covered the spread. That line, just like this one, was right around a 7.5 and the Celtics prevailed by 10 despite scoring only 84 points. Note that Indiana's lowest scoring game this season had been 89 points. In other words, had the Pacers simply not scored any less than their worst game so far this season they would have won the game outright by 5 points. Give the Celtics defense some credit for sure but also consider it an aberration for the Pacers offense, a one-off if you will. In other words, look for a huge bounce back tonight. Indiana is angry, embarrassed, and they will be on the attack tonight and score much, much better. The Pacers are a long-term 22-11 ATS (including 7-3 ATS this season) when playing with revenge for a road loss by a double digit margin. Indiana is also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 April games and 29-16 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Boston is 21-32 ATS (including 7-12 ATS this season) as a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Overall, the Celtics had failed to cover 8 STRAIGHT home games prior to their miracle comeback and cover from a double digit half-time deficit in Game One. It is payback time for the Pacers and, even if they fall short of the outright upset, they'll stay inside this number. 10* INDIANA |
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04-16-19 | Magic +10 v. Raptors | Top | 82-111 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The zig zag theory is one that often applies come playoff time in the NBA and that is the theory I am using to our advantage here. The fact is the markets often react greatly to the prior game in a series and when the markets zig I often like to zag and go the other way when the situation is right because we're getting extra value. That is precisely the situation here. Yes the Raptors are in bounce back mode and I do expect them to find a way to get the SU win here but I don't expect it to come by a significant margin. The fact is that Orlando has been one of the hottest teams in the league dating back to late January. The Magic have been shooting the ball very well and are playing with a ton of confidence. When you get a team like that getting double digits (by the way this line has gone from opening at 8.5 in some shops to now as 10.5 in some shops) this fits the very definition of a high value dangerous dog. Orlando will be playing in Toronto for the 3rd time already this month and 4th time since late February so they're certainly getting more and more comfortable playing here. As for confidence level, the Magic are actually 3-2 SU versus the Raptors this season and one of those two losses came by just 2 points. The other one came by a dozen points but Orlando actually had 9 more shots from the field than Toronto did but yet lost by 12 because the Raptors hit an insane 19 of 37 three pointers. Again, you can see why I am seeing value signs flashing here when we can get Orlando plus double digit points given all of the above factors. Toronto is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and also 2-6 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series! The Magic are 13-4 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 15-4 ATS this season against Atlantic Division opponents. Grab the undervalued big dog in this one. 10* ORLANDO |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 123-145 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Rise of the Fallen - Rickenbach NBA Game #522 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8 ET - After being embarrassed in Game 1 and ruthlessly criticized as the most unacceptable effort of any team so far in this post-season, the 76ers respond Monday. The reason you're seeing this line exactly where it was at for Game 1 is because the odds makers are expecting the same thing that sharp bettors, the Sixers will respond in a big way here. If you look at the box score from Saturday's ugly home loss for Philadelphia, you'll see that the Nets and Sixers each took about 25 three-pointers. The difference? Brooklyn made 11 of theirs and the 76ers made a paltry 3 of theirs...on their home floor no less! The point is that this is a 24 point difference. If you assume the teams just shot equally from beyond the arc in Game 1 the Sixers win the game by a 15-point margin. Philly won the rebounding battle and also got to the line more - 16 more free throw attempts than the Nets. Back to the 3 point shooting, note that the Nets shot 35% from three point land this season while the Sixers shot 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, you can see just how unlikely those disparate 3-point shooting stats were in Game 1. Philly is a long-term 38-19 ATS when revenging a home loss and that includes 7-3 ATS this season! The Nets are 8-17 SU when they enter a game on an under streak of 3 or more consecutive unders. That SU record is noteworthy here as the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Payback time! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-14-19 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 225 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:30 ET - Of course it is well known that the Blazers are without Jusuf Nurkic but the good news is that they have got CJ McCollum back. The key about Nurkic is that he had 6 blocks and 7 steals in the 4 games against the Thunder this season. His replacement is Enes Kanter who can match Nurkic's scoring but not his defense. An example of that is that Kanter has had 0 blocks in 12 of his last 14 games. The point is that the situation for Portland with their big men is a help to the over here. The 4 games between these teams this season averaged 228 points in regulation (took the OT period out of the equation). That means it seems like we may not have that much value with this total at 225. However, keep in mind Nurkic played all 4 of those games. It will be a little different for the Trail Blazers without him. Also Paul George has had huge success against Portland this season as has Russell Westbrook. On the flip side Damon Lillard has been huge against the Thunder this season. There is a great pace to match-ups between these teams and I expect a tight ball-game but one that is played fast and with plenty of scoring and transition points. All 4 games Saturday stayed under the total but you know that is not going to be a trend that lasts and the odds makers have this as the biggest total on the board Sunday with good reason. Additionally, both teams wrapped up the season going 8-4 to the over their last 12 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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04-13-19 | Magic v. Raptors OVER 212.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic @ 5:05 ET - This total opened up at a 216 but has dropped to as low as a 212.5 as of early game day morning. I love the value with the over here. The Magic are a very confident underdog here and I expect that to lead to plenty of points as they hang around in this game. Keep in mind, Orlando wrapped up the season winning 11 of their last 13 games. The Magic have scored an average of 116.5 points per game in their last 13 games! The over is 7-0 in Orlando's last 7 games. The Raptors final game of the regular season totaled 220 points which resulted in an under but would be an over given today's line. Either way, prior to that game, Toronto had only 4 unders in their 16 prior games! The Raptors have averaged 116.6 points per game their last 17 games. I know this is playoff basketball but I still the odds makers had it right and if any movement at all occurred with this total it should have been the other direction. A similar move in the other direction would have had it up near 220 and based on the way these two teams have been shooting and scoring as well of the pace of their games, I do expect at least 220 here. In other words, we've got very strong line value in this one. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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04-09-19 | Knicks v. Bulls OVER 216.5 | Top | 96-86 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
The Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - Who is going to play defense here? The Bulls just faced a Sixers team that was very hungry for a win to lock in playoff seeding and to end a season-long losing streak. As a result, the Bulls scored just 96 points in that game. But that was the first under that Chicago has had in their last 4 games. As for the Knicks, they are coming off their first under in their last 5 games. However, that game totaled 223 points and would get us a win based on today's total. With regards to today's total note that the very first number that popped up off shore on this one was 219 but then it immediately dropped to 215. As of early game day morning, it has settled in around the 216.5 mark. I understand the drop on the total as neither one of these lineups renders any excitement in terms of star power but lets talk facts here! This is a meaningless late season game between two non-playoff teams where the level of defensive intensity is going to vary somewhere between minimal and non-existent! Chicago has allowed an average of 118.7 points per game their last 13 games. New York has allowed an average of 117.2 points per game their last 11 games. Each of the first two meetings this season went over the total and all signs point to another one here. Keep in mind if each team allows 108 points or more we can't lose this play (based on current number of 216.5). The Knicks have allowed 109 points or more in 10 of their last 12 games. The Bulls have allowed 112 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games. I know the lineups lack star power but these guys are hungry and looking to pad stats in a game where the winner does not matter. I see good pace here in this game as well as continue lack of defense and we should see this game get well into the 220s. 10* OVER the total in Chicago |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The Game Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 9:20 PM ET - As I wrote in my analysis that accompanied my selection on the Red Raiders over Michigan State Saturday, this Texas Tech team is for real and has the stifling defense and enough senior presence (half of their playing rotation) to get the job done here! With their win over the Spartans, the Red Raiders are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games that have had a line in single digits. Two great defenses but the Cavaliers have been so fortunate in this tournament I feel it comes to an end here. Lightning usually doesn't strike twice but it has for the Cavs. After their lucky win (and insane cover!) over Purdue where they were fortunate the game even went to OT, Virginia dodged another bullet with the insane finish in a win over Auburn. This Red Raiders team won't make the same "end game mistakes" that the Tigers did. First off, when you're ahead by 4 and don't at least get a hand up on a guy shooting a 3 that is their hottest shooter with 20 seconds to go you have made a huge mistake. Then, with a 2 point lead and the clock winding down to the final second you do make a run at a guy shooting a 3 and end up getting your body into him? Players fault or the fault of the coach? Either way you won't see the same mistakes with this Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders have proven to be incredibly focused throughout this tourney and I just don't see them being denied. Look for them to get an early jump on the Cavaliers here and then their stifling defense does the rest as Virginia can't quite climb back! Remember the scoring drought the Cavs had late in the game against Auburn? I mentioned that could be an issue in my write-up (had Tigers plus points over Cavaliers) and the fact is those types of scoring droughts continue to be an issue for this Virginia team. That will eventually be the straw that breaks the camels back as the saying goes. It hasn't happened yet but, like I said above, it is rare enough for lighting to strike twice in same place and even more rare to happen 3 times in a row. The Cavs are a great team don't get me wrong but, so too are the Red Raiders, but the luck the Cavaliers have had to even get here is unreal. Just like when I faded Duke after their insanely tight win, I'll fade Virginia again here as the REd Raiders improve to 12-0 ATS L12 games with a line in single digits. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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04-07-19 | Magic v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The first number that popped up off shore on this one Saturday afternoon had the Celtics favored by 6.5 and it has dropped to as low as a 4.5 as of early Sunday morning. This is offering us great line value here with Boston at home as Orlando is currently getting a little too much respect. The Magic are off a blowout win but it came against an Atlanta team that decided just to "go through the motions" on Friday. Orlando took advantage on their home floor. But now the Magic are on the road and facing a Boston team that, as usual, has been strong at home this season. Also, the Celtics are motivated here as they look to lock up the home seed for their upcoming first round series with the Pacers. Orlando is only 15-24 on the road this season and the Celtics are 28-12 at home on the season. Each of the last 7 losses for the Magic have come by 5 or more points with each of the last 6 coming by 8 or more points. 10 of the Celtics last 12 wins have come by 5 or more points. The home team is 12-4 ATS in Orlando's last 16 games. The Magic have been hot but the Celtics are also heating up, including Gordon Hayward, and they've won 5 of their last 6 games. 10* BOSTON |
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04-06-19 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 61-51 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 8:50 PM ET - My selection here involving the Spartans game actually has a lot to do with their in-state rival, the Wolverines. Strange, right? But let me explain. First off when the Spartans play Michigan it is a big deal of course. This season, Michigan State faced Michigan 3 times and won 3 hard-fought games. The key? They are 0-3 ATS in their game that followed the Wolverines. How does that relate here? The Spartans are off a very hard-fought win over Duke which they viewed as their road-block to the Championship. In other words, beat the Blue Devils and win it all. Texas Tech may have something to say about that first but before moving along to the Red Raiders, let me finish by saying that the only bigger opponent for Michigan State this season than Michigan was Duke and you could see the huge emotion for the Spartans after that game. Look for another flat performance off such a huge, emotional win. Now comes the other key part of how Michigan ties into this one. The Wolverines had a tremendous team this season and are very well coached. That Michigan team just faced the Red Raiders last week and the Wolverines didn't score their 20th point until they were 5 minutes into the 2nd half! Texas Tech absolutely dominated them and I am not saying they will do the same thing to Michigan State but I am saying the Red Raiders get the upset here. I personally bet the money line on this game but certainly I would recommend you grab the points for added insurance. However, this Texas Tech team is for real and has the stifling defense and enough senior presence (half of their playing rotation) to get the job done here! The Red Raiders are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games that had a line in single digits. Two great defenses but the Spartans feel like they won the Championship already after beating Duke while the Red Raiders are still fully focused here and get an early jump on the Spartans here and then their defense does the rest as the Spartans can't quite climb back! 10* TEXAS TECH |
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04-06-19 | 76ers -9 v. Bulls | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
NBA TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers, of course, have some injury/rest concerns as they try and get prepared for the playoffs. However, their inexcusable loss to the Bucks (Philly led by 5 with just a couple minutes left) has resulted in the Sixers FIRST 3-game losing streak of this entire season. Of course it is a bad time to be cold and they know it. They will respond here and, as far as whom sits and whom plays for the Sixers, note that the Bulls are also ravaged by injuries. Chicago is off an upset in at Washington as roughly a double digit dog too. How did they do it? The Wizards played like they didn't care and the Bulls (even with many unknown players) shot a ridiculous 61% from two-point land. I will challenge them to do that again here as they take on a very hungry 76ers team that certainly is in a much different situation than that of the Wizards. This Philly teams needs a win and needs to get their confidence and swagger back so I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas here. Keep in mind, the Sixers also are now in need of at least one win to lock down the #3 seed they've worked so hard for. Plenty of motivation here and don't let the big spread scare you. Philly, finally, goes the full 48 minutes in this one! They have two days off after this so the 76ers will NOT hold back. The Bulls are 14-25 ATS at home this season. Chicago is also 6-11 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Also, the Bulls most recent loss came by 8 points but 6 of the prior 8 came by 9 or more points and this one has double digit blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-05-19 | Hawks +9 v. Magic | Top | 113-149 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
SE Div GOY - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - This is one of those beautiful late season situations simply too good to pass up on. The Magic control their own destiny because if they win out they are in the post-season. However, they now host a divisional foe that would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Keep in mind, even without big man Dewayne Dedmon, the Hawks continue to look strong! Atlanta has won 5 of its last 7 SU and also gone 6-1 ATS during this stretch. They are relishing the role of spoiler and truly fit the bill as a dangerous dog in a spot like this. All the pressure is on the Magic here and when a team starts to feel pressure that is when they start losing their shooting touch. This line has gone from as low as a -6 yesterday afternoon all the way up to as high as a -9 early this morning. Of course bettors love to bet the teams that "need to win" and yet that so often proves to be the WRONG thing to do and I fully expect that will be the case again tonight. The Magic are going to have a fight on their hands with the Hawks who continue to scratch, flight, and claw their way to gritty victories and covers. With Trae Young dominating the backcourt and John Collins getting it done in the frontcourt, the Hawks have proven to be a handful for playoff-bound teams like the 76ers and Spurs. Perhaps Atlanta falls short of the upset tonight but, if they do, I expect them to lose this game by only a possession or two so the points should prove to be more than enough here for the cover! The Hawks also are 11-6 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. The Magic are 3-11 ATS (and only 5-9 SU) in Friday night games this season. Upset alert! 10* ATLANTA |
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04-05-19 | South Florida v. DePaul OVER 145 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in DePaul Blue Demons vs South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury situation for the Blue Demons. The following 3 players are listed as questionable for tonight: Devin Gage, Eli Cain, Jaylen Butz. However, not only do I most certainly NOT expect all 3 of those guys to miss tonight's game and a chance to win the CBI Championship on their home floor, note that the other 5 plays (NONE listed on injury report) are the DePaul players that accounted for 90 of their 100 points in Wednesday's OT win! The point is, we still have plenty of potency with this Blue Demons team regardless of those injured players but, again, I do expect at least 1 if not 2 of them to be good to go tonight. Even though Wednesday's game went to OT, they didn't need it to get the over. The teams totaled 164 points in regulation. With this game total opening up at a 147 and dropping to a 145 I love the value we're getting here in this spot. DePaul made only 31.8% of their threes in Game 2 on Wednesday and yet still totaled 100 points! The over is 9-5 this season in games where South Florida is an underdog. The Bulls are 12-6 to the over the last 18 times they've allowed 80 points or more in a game. DePaul is 15-7 to the over in home games this season. Also, the Blue Demons are 11-5 to the over in non-conference games, 9-4 to the over after allowing 80 or more points, and 4-1 to the over when they enter game having failed to cover the spread in each of their 3 prior games. All of those trends are current season trends and they continue here. 10* OVER the total in DePaul |
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04-04-19 | Bucks v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 128-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers have been resting Joel Embiid and that could be the case again tonight plus Jimmy Butler is a question mark too. Of course this is why you're seeing the Bucks favored by as much as 5.5 in this one as of Thursday morning when lines first popped up again on this after it was off the board. Philadelphia is off back to back losses but the Sixers are 6-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B losses. You read that right...Philly has NOT lost three straight games yet this season and yet they are a 5.5 point home dog here. I'll take it! Yes the Bucks are a great team but Philly isn't just going to lay down here at home. Also, the Sixers cupboard certainly is far from bare if they decide to rest 1 or 2 players tonight. The Bucks have lost 5 of their last 8 road games SU. Also, the Bucks depth has been impacted by a slew of injuries lately. The Sixers won and covered the most recent meeting in Milwaukee as well as each of the last two meetings in Philly and I look for more of the same here. I do expect the outright win but am grabbing the points for added "insurance" here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-04-19 | Lipscomb v. Texas -1 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #728 Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (-) vs Lipscomb Bisons @ 7 ET - Hats off to Lipscomb for making it this far but they aren't facing Wichita State tonight. They are facing a Big 12 team that has shown, when it wants to, it can play great basketball on both ends of the floor. The Shockers, inexcusably, blew a late double digit lead against the Bisons on Tuesday. As a result, Lipscomb instead of Wichita State is here tonight and now we can take advantage of the betting markets infatuation with a Bisons team that hails from a conference that is nowhere near the talent level of the Big 12. Teams like Lipscomb can go on tourney runs and look great in doing so but how many times do you remember a team like this hoisting a championship trophy? Maybe for the CIT or CBI Tourney, yes. But when it comes to the Big Dance (NCAA) or the 2nd best tourney in the nation (NIT) you will see from looking at the list of champions they come from bigger conferences than the Atlantic Sun. If this was a smaller tourney like the CBI or CIT I would have some concern about backing the Horns. But on the grand stage of Madison Square Garden, Texas will not be denied here and I love the fact I can get them at -1 this morning. How much difference is there in these two conferences? When the Bisons beat TCU earlier this season in a meaningless non-conference match-up (Horned Frogs would have been much more motivated on a stage like this) that was the FIRST WIN in Lipscomb's last 10 games against a Big 12 team. If TCU was here they would be exacting revenge but that win the Bisons have over the Frogs also only strengthens the fact that Lipscomb has the full attention of the Horns and will be the recipient of the Longhorns "A game" here. Another way to compare these teams: the TOP 5 teams in the Atlantic Sun included North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, and New Jersey Institutional Tech - yes that powerhouse NJIT (tongue in cheek). The TOP 5 teams in the Big 12 - Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa State. This line is roughly a pick'em and I don't see the Longhorns being denied here. They beat them by 23 points last season and the Bisons haven't improved THAT much in one year nor have the Horns fallen THAT much in one year. It was no fluke either as the Horns won the first half by 14 and second half by 9. They dominated the game. I can see Lipscomb putting a scare into Texas and hanging around for awhile but eventually the difference in talent level will be evident and the Longhorns will pull away. 10* TEXAS |
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04-03-19 | South Florida v. DePaul OVER 146 | Top | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #717 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in DePaul Blue Demons vs South Florida Bulls @ 8 ET - Since the CBI is a series, this sets up a classic situation that leads to great line value. The job of the odds makers is to set numbers that balance the action. Now, because Monday's Game 1 of this Best of 3 series ended up being so low scoring down in South Florida they've posted this one a full 5 points below the Monday opener. They had to do it because they know how the markets would have reacted if they had again posted a number north of 150. But the fact is the odds makers are quite sharp and their 151 in Game 1 was posted with full reasoning and logic. That said, the fact the series has now shifted to Chicago is actually MORE conducive to an over and yet the odds makers had to give a lower number. The home team tends to have more impact of controlling the tempo and pace in games and that favored South Florida on Monday and the Bulls are known for relying on their defense to win games. DePaul, on the other hand, pays little attention to defense and loves to run and gun. The Blue Demons are averaging 81 points per game when at home this season and, keep in mind, they've allowed an average of 76 points per game on the season. The over in DePaul home games went 14-7 this season. Also, the Blue Demons are were 10-4 to the over in non-conference games prior to Monday's game staying under the total. Look for the home team to force a much different pace in this game than what we saw Monday. South Florida is on a 14-4 run to the over in Wednesday games. The Bulls, as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, are 4-1 to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in DePaul |
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04-03-19 | Bulls v. Wizards -11 | Top | 115-114 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Wednesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - At first glance one would have to question how can the Wizards (eliminated from post-season contention and just terminated the team president) be favored by double digits over anyone. Well, against these Bulls it actually makes perfect sense! Chicago is expected to again be without their 4 leading scorers and they account for about 70 points per game for the Bulls! Of course this is too much to overcome and that was proven when they lost to the lowly Knicks in their most recent game. Chicago is currently putting a team on the floor filled with inexperienced players who are trying to adjust to the NBA game. Conversely, though Washington is also "getting a look" at players for next season, the Wizards younger players are thriving. Washington just won at Denver and got strong contributions from a number of players. The Wizards are playing hard and have won 3 straight games ATS and they rallied from a 15 point and then allowed just 28 second half points to the Nuggets on Sunday. Though just returning from a road trip out west, the fact that the Wizards have had two full off days to prep for this game means they'll be ready and I expect them to dominate on their home floor. Washington will take advantage of a very short-handed Bulls team. Chicago has failed to cover 3 in a row and I foresee the Wizards improving to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games with a dominating home win. 10* WASHINGTON |
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04-02-19 | Lakers v. Thunder -12.5 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #580 Tuesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - Perfect spot for a contrarian play. We get a little extra value here because the Lakers have surprisingly won 4 of their last 5 SU and are on a 5-0 ATS run. The Thunder have been struggling. The key here is OKC is at home and angry due to losing 7 of their last 9 games. Also, this is a home revenge spot for Oklahoma City as they lost as a host versus the Lakers in January. The Thunder lost that game by double digits despite being a double digit favorite! Payback comes big tonight! OKC is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Lakers are 9-18 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The recent wins for Los Angeles all have come against below .500 teams. They face a much different "animal" tonight and that "animal" is angry and seeking revenge. This will be a home blowout. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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04-02-19 | Wichita State -105 v. Lipscomb | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
NIT #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #709 Tuesday 10* Top Play Wichita State Shockers (-) vs Lipscomb Bisons @ 7 ET - The Bisons have been a great story and they've gotten here thanks to a red hot run with their shooting. However, now they face a Shockers team that can actually play some defense. This is particularly true of Wichita State when they are in "tournament mode" as they have been for quite some time now. The Shockers have held their opponents to 41.9% or less in each of their last 6 games. By comparison, Lipscomb has allowed 48.3% or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Not only that, when comparing strength of schedule, Wichita State of course has faced tougher competition this season than Lipscomb. The Bisons have been a great story for sure to make it all the way to MSG but defense wins championships and that is why the Shockers will prevail in this game and be the team that has a chance to win the NIT Championship on Thursday. 10* WICHITA STATE |
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04-01-19 | Blazers -3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 132-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
NW Div #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - Great line value here with the Trail Blazers coming off a loss. Yes the Timberwolves recently upset Golden State but that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm for this slumping Minnesota team. Other than that win, the Wolves have won just 1 of their last 8 games and that victory came against lowly Memphis. Now Minnesota is hosting a Trail Blazers team that is angry off a loss and won't lack for focus here. Keep in mind the Blazers lost at Minnesota early this season so they'll be ready to exact road revenge here. Yes, Portland has won their two home match-ups with the Timberwolves this season but now it is time for road payback for that loss in mid-November. As mentioned above, the Blazers enter this game off a loss but, prior to that defeat, they had won 9 of their last 10 games. Yes, Portland is without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic but that is factored into this line. The fact is that the Wolves are without a number of players too as they enter this match-up and this is simply a matter of the much better in a great spot (off a loss) facing a team that has faded down the stretch run. The result is great line value with the short road favorite. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The Blazers are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record and roll again here. Each of the Trail Blazers last 28 wins have come by a margin of 4 or more points! Each of the Wolves last 14 losses have come by a margin of 5 or more points. Lay the short number! 10* PORTLAND |
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04-01-19 | DePaul +1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
CBI #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play DePaul Blue Demons (+) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - This is the first game of the best out of three CBI Championship Series. Most will look at this game and see the team with the overall better record at home and at roughly a pick'em price and just jump all over the host. Of course that is where contrarian viewpoints become so important. There is a reason this game is priced this way. The Blue Demons play in the Big East. The Bulls play in the American Athletic Conference. As a result of that, as well as the way their non-conference schedules were laid out this season, DePaul has played a tougher strength of schedule than South Florida. Of course that is factored into this line but much of the betting market overlooks that and looks at this one as "easy" to take the Bulls on their home floor. Of course, we all know how that typically plays out when something looks "easy". There is nothing easy in this business and that is why I generally maintain a contrarian viewpoint on games. We have plenty of support for a play on DePaul here. South Florida has won 3 straight games but they previously lost 7 of their last 8. Also, the Bulls have been held to 41% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Blue Demons are loaded with confidence right now on the offensive end as they've been shooting lights out. This is particularly true of late but the hot shooting run generally extends all the way back to mid-February. Just as you've seen with Auburn in the Big Dance, when a team gets hot with their shooting they can make a huge run. That is what the Blue Demons have been doing and it continues here. Yes they've been at home so far and now are on the road for this game but the Blue Demons have scored 73 points or more in 5 straight road games! More of the same expected here! 10* DE PAUL |
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03-31-19 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Rematch Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #691 Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - The Spartans seek revenge for last season's regular season loss to the Blue Devils and, of course, there is much more at stake with this match-up than last season's early season match-up. Michigan State has been dominating of late while the Blue Devils have been just getting by for close wins. What really factors into this is the line value as we're getting 2.5 points as of early Sunday morning and taking a look at Duke's last 14 games as a good sample size reveals a lot. The Blue Devils are 11-3 SU in those 14 games but 5 of the 11 wins have come by 2 or less points. So if you had +2.5 going against the Blue Devils you cashed in about half of their SU wins plus got the outright upset 3 times. Duke, plain and simple, is fortunate to be here. They are on a 3-11 ATS run but continue to attract bets because, well, their Duke! Truly they are a public team and everyone wants to be the #1 seed here and lay a short number. I am expecting an upset however and we've got some great technical support for backing Tom Izzo's team here. Michigan State is 9-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. The Spartans are also 11-2 ATS when off a game in which they scored 80 points or more. The Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Spartans certainly hold the edge in experience and I look for freshman-laden Duke's luck to run out in this one. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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03-31-19 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 221.5 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #549 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks @ 3:35 ET - The Thunder have been inconsistent on the offensive end of late. However, now comes the perfect remedy. The Mavericks are in town and Dallas is eliminated from post-season contention. I fully expect Oklahoma City to run and gun this game and it is likely to turn into a home blowout. However, I am never a fan of laying huge points in the NBA and this spread currently sits at a dozen points. Don't be surprised if the Mavericks score well in "garbage time" in this game as well. The Mavs are 6-3 to the over in Sunday games this season. The Thunder are 10-2 to the over in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. OKC has allowed 115 points or more in 4 of its last 6 games. Dallas has allowed an average of 115.4 points in its last 7 games. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky OVER 140.5 | Top | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #693 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs Auburn Tigers @ 2:20 ET - The way Auburn is red hot from three point land it is very hard not to like the over in this match-up. What is most impressive about the Tigers run is that all this hot shooting has come in games played on a neutral floor. Auburn has shot 35% or better from 3-point land in 8 straight games and each of the last 7 were games played on a neutral floor. Incredibly, the Tigers have shot about 42% from 3-point land in their last 5 games! They will score plenty here against Kentucky but won't be able to stop the Wildcats. Keep in mind, Auburn has allowed an average of 77 points in their last 3 games and the over is a perfect 4-0 in Auburn's last 4 games. Kentucky is off back to back low-scoring games but that had a lot to do with the type of teams they faced. Prior to those two match-ups, the Wildcats had scored an average of 77 points per game in their 3 previous games. Kentucky is averaging 76 points per game on the season and Auburn is averaging 80 points per game on the season. The over is 14-5 this season in Auburn's games with a posted total in the 140s and I love the value here as this total first opened at a 144.5 offshore and is now a 140.5 as of early Sunday morning. The Wildcats averaged 81 points per game in their two games with Auburn this season! 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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03-30-19 | 76ers -4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 118-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The markets sometimes help create value where it otherwise should not be and that is the beauty of a situation like this. First off this line was first up at an 8.5 but then got taken down because of Joel Embiid possibly missing this game. Now that it is confirmed that he will sit this game out to get extra rest the line has now plummeted to as low as a 4.5 this morning. The funny thing is did anyone pay attention to last night's games? The 76ers were NOT in action and were resting and getting ready for this game. As for the Wolves they were in the middle of a hard-fought overtime win over the World Champion Warriors last night! So now after knocking off the champs and taking OT to do it, the short-handed Timberwolves (a number of players out recently) are supposed to beat a Sixers team that has man-handled them in recent meetings? Yes I know about the "revenge against Jimmy Butler" angle but Philly is the far superior team and in a much better scheduling situation. This game is set up to be a road rout! Prior to beating GS last night, Minnesota had lost 10 of their 14 prior games. The 76ers enter this game having won 7 of their last 9 games. The Sixers are off a big win over Brooklyn and are 11-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. The Timberwolves are on a 15-25 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-30-19 | Texas Tech v. Gonzaga OVER 137 | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
March Madness Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #684 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 6:10 ET - The very first total that popped up offshore on this game early Friday morning was 140 and now we're looking at a 137. Yes, I am well aware of the Red Raiders defense but their not stopping this Bulldogs offense. Gonzaga has the most efficient offense in the nation and, unlike what Texas Tech saw with Michigan, these Bulldogs will be on the run in transition. Unlike the Wolverines, the Bulldogs aren't going to allow this game to settle down into a match-up filled with halfcourt sets. Every chance they get Gonzaga will be pushing the pace and I look for plenty of points in this one because you also don't want to count out the Red Raiders offensive production. Texas Tech scored "only" 63 points in the win over the Wolverines but Michigan is one of the toughest teams in the nation to score on. Prior to that, the Red Raiders had scored 70 points or more in 10 straight games! In fact, Texas Tech averaged 79.4 points per game in those 10 games! Gonzaga is averaging 88.2 points per game on the season! The over is 11-2 in Red Raiders Saturday games this season. The over is a long-term 19-8 in Bulldogs neutral court games with a total in a range of 135 to 139.5 points. Both these teams can play some D but take a look at their full season numbers on offense (including shooting percentages) and you can't help but be very impressed. That said, and knowing the Bulldogs plan of attack for this game, this is a generously priced total that we can take advantage of. 10* OVER the total in Gonzaga |
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03-29-19 | Auburn +6 v. North Carolina | Top | 97-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
March Madness Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #673 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (+) vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET - Did you notice yesterday that the lines (compared to seeding) were, as you would expect, very small spreads on the 2 vs 3 match-ups and then, as you would expect, bigger spreads on the 1 vs 4 match-up and 1 vs 12 match-up. That said, why is it that today the biggest seed differential (1 vs 5) has the 3rd smallest spread? Both Michigan State (in a 2 vs 3) and Duke (in a 1 vs 4) have bigger spreads than the North Carolina - Auburn match-up? I'll tell you why. It is because the odds makers are very sharp and they know what their doing here. Don't be fooled by the line. I am expecting a Tigers upset but happy to grab all the points I can get should Auburn fall just short. The fact is that the Tigers live and die with the 3-ball but they have been very hot of late and very consistent and I expect that to be a key to the cover here. Note that Auburn has made 35% or better from 3 point land in 7 straight games. Not only is this all part of an 8-game stretch that has seen the Tigers only be dealt 1 ATS loss, it also holds significance when you look at an interesting not about the Tar Heels. Let's look at North Carolina's last 13 games. UNC went 8-5 ATS in those games. What was the key with the 5 ATS losses? The Tar Heels allowed 35% or better from 3 point land in all 5 ATS defeats! In their 8 ATS wins they held their opponent under 35% in all 8 covers! Now they face an Auburn team that has been red hot from beyond the arc (all on neutral floors too!) and I fully expect the Tigers to give UNC hell from beyond the arc in this one. By the way, North Carolina is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games against SEC opponents. The Tigers are a perfect 3-0 SU in neutral court games with a posted total in the 160s. Upset alert but grab the points for added insurance. 10* AUBURN |
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03-29-19 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 213 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics are 7-2 to the over in their last 9 games. Boston has allowed 48% or more from the field in 7 of their last 10 games. The Celtics have shot 47% or better from the field in 10 of their last 12 games. The other time they hosted Indiana this season the game totaled 243 points. The Pacers are 8-4 to the over in Friday games this season. Boston is 13-8 to the over this season after a win by a margin of double digits. The Celtics also are 10-6 to the over in games against Central Division opponents. The tempo at which Boston has been playing of late and the fact the Celtics are at home here and should control the pace of this game will be the factors that combine to lead to another high-scoring game between these two. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga OVER 146.5 | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #655 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7:10 ET - These teams each have big frontcourts and that gives them a solid line of defense in the paint. However, don't underestimate the potency of each one of these offenses and also don't forget the big points they've given up in similar match-ups. Yes I know last season's match-up stayed well under the total but now this season's total posted for this game has been adjusted below that one even though one could easily make a case for this game being much higher scoring. Note that Gonzaga is ranked as the most efficient offense in the nation and they are averaging 88.6 points per game on the season. However, also note that the Bulldogs faced two ACC opponents this season (NC and Duke) and they allowed an average of 95 points per game in those two games! As for Florida State, they are surging with confidence in the offensive end after putting up 90 in their 2nd round win. On the defensive end though lets look at how they fared against Duke (twice) and North Carolina. The Seminoles allowed an average of 77 points per game in their 3 meetings with those powerful offenses. Based on the above you can see why plenty of points are likely in this one! Also, in games with a posted total of 144 or more, the Bulldogs are 4-1 to the over their last 5. Florida State has gone over the total in each of their NCAA Tourney games thus far and Zags games against ACC teams both flew over the total this season. 10* OVER the total in Gonzaga |
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03-28-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - Enough is enough for the Sixers. After knocking off their nemesis (and long-time rival) Boston, they've lost back to back games at Atlanta and Orlando. Now they are back home and in need of a big win and the Nets are going to feel the wrath. Note that Philly is 5-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B SU losses. You read that right. The Sixers have NEVER lost 3 straight game this entire season and I don't expect that to change here either. However, what about the spread (currently 7.5) on this game? The fact is that the Nets are 7-26 ATS in their last 33 losses! In other words, when you're holding a Brooklyn ticket and they lose the game SU, you're only cashing your ticket about 20% of the time! I like the 76ers to roll big at home in this one as they also are playing this game with home loss revenge. That is a situation that has seen them go 37-19 ATS in recent seasons including 6-3 ATS this season. Also, when the Sixers are off a loss by a double digit margin, they've gone 37-18 in recent seasons including a superb 10-3 ATS this season. This one has home blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-27-19 | Pacers v. Thunder OVER 215 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Thunder have had some struggles on offense in recent weeks. However, I am expecting a big bounce back on their home floor tonight after both Paul George and Russell Westbrook struggled in Oklahoma City's loss at Memphis Monday. As for the Pacers, they are expected to get a boost with the return of point guard Darren Collison tonight. Even if he does not return though, look for Indiana's struggles with defense on the road to continue. The Pacers have lost 8 straight road games and the fact they've allowed 110 points per game in those defeats has certainly played a role in it. The Thunder defense has not been impressive of late either as they've allowed 113.5 points per game during their current 1-5 overall stretch their last 6 games. The OKC loss to the Grizzlies Monday was an ugly one and the over is 4-1 in 2019 when when the Thunder are off a loss by a margin of 11 points or more. Indiana is 3-0 to the over the last 3 times they were off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Look for the Pacers offensive production to pick up right where it left off in the win versus Denver Sunday while the Thunder offense gets back on a roll at home after the poor effort versus the Grizz began this week on the wrong foot. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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03-27-19 | Coastal Carolina v. DePaul OVER 162.5 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in DePaul Blue Demons vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 8 ET - The over is a PERFECT 6-0 in the Blue Demons last 6 games. DePaul has allowed an average of 87 points per game in its last 4 games. Coastal Carolina enters this game having scored an average of 95 points per game in its last 2 games. You can see why we should expect plenty of points here as the Chanticleers are hot in the offensive end and the Blue Demons are about the furthest thing from a defensive-minded team. DePaul relies on quick-strike scoring to beat teams and they will simply look to run and gun their way past Coastal Carolina. Of course the Blue Demons have played a tougher schedule than the Chanticleers and that is why I expect DePaul to enjoy plenty of success in the offensive end. I just don't foresee the Blue Demons as being able to stop Coastal Carolina in this one and we should see a wildly high-scoring affair. DePaul has averaged 90.3 points per game in its last 6 games. The Chanticleers have allowed an average of 81 points per game in their last 10 games. The over is a long-term 4-1 in Coastal Carolina semi-final games in tournaments. The over is 13-7 in Blue Demons home games this season and I look for their overall streak with totals to make it 7 in a row on Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in DePaul |
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03-26-19 | Creighton +4 v. TCU | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #619 Tuesday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - I am happy to challenge TCU here. The Horned Frogs have struggled in the biggest of games this season. TCU went a combined 0-7 against Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Kansas this season. The Horned Frogs enter this game off back to back wins and covers but they entered the NIT Tournament on a 3-11 ATS run. As for the Bluejays, they are peaking at the right time. With each win the confidence grows and Creighton enters this game having won 7 of their last 8 games both SU and ATS. Also, the lone loss during that stretch came by just 2 points and would be an ATS win based on the current number posted on this game. By the way, that number has grown too and I like fading the masses. The earliest number on this game had TCU at "just" a -3 so, of course, everyone jumped on the Horned Frogs at a small number on their home floor and drove the line to as high as a -4.5 in some spots. Creighton has a rest edge here as they have had 3 days off prior to this game while the Horned Frogs will be playing this game with just one day of rest. Note that TCU is a poor 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they've played a game with 1 day or less of rest between games. Give me the points with the rested team rolling with confidence right now. 10* CREIGHTON |
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03-26-19 | Magic +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Many will be looking to fade Orlando here because they are off a big win over the 76ers last night so it looks like the ideal spot to go against a team in a back to back situation. However, remember that we are now at the point in the season where there are very few "tomorrows" left for a team. In other words, the Magic need to win now or their season will be coming to an end. They are in a battle with Miami for the top spot in the Southeast Division and punching their ticket to the post-season. That said, there is absolutely not going to be a letdown here from the Magic in the slightest sense of the word. The time to win is now. I also like the fact that Orlando did have two days off prior to hosting the Sixers last night so they are truly not that fatigued here. Additionally, hosting Philly last night was just the 3rd game for Orlando in the past 8 days! As for Miami, though they have been off two days heading into this one they had played 5 games in 7 days prior to the 2-day break. In fact one could argue that the Magic should have the fresher legs here overall despite being in a back to back. Orlando has played less recently than Miami has. Also, not much distance separates these instate rivals so it truly should not come as a big surprise that the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Heat won and covered their most recent home game but that was preceded by a 4-9 ATS run as a host! Also, the Magic are surging with confidence as they bring a 5-game winning streak into this one. If Orlando falls just short here I like the fact we've got a handful of points to work with as well but I am expecting the outright upset here. The Magic are 16-7 ATS after scoring 115 points or more and also 12-6 ATS this season after a win by a double digit margin. Last night they held Philly without a field goal for a stretch of 12 minutes! Miami is 1-6 SU and ATS in Tuesday games and the Heat are an ugly 5-10 ATS in divisional match-ups this season. 10* ORLANDO |
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03-25-19 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 218.5 | Top | 103-115 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #549 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Grizzlies are off an under but the over was 6-1 in their 7 prior games. As their hopes for a playoff spot have faded, their focus on the defensive end has also faded as well but the markets aren't properly assessing that factor and we can take advantage here. The total opened up at a 220.5 and has already dropped to a 218.5 as of early game day morning. It is likely headed even lower as the recent under streak that the Thunder had is fresh in the minds of the marketplace too. However, OKC is now 2-0-1 to the over in their last 3 games and they've allowed 47% or more from the field in EACH of their last 4 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times these teams have met in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Oklahoma City is 18-8 to the over this season when off a non-conference game. Also, the Thunder have gone 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games versus teams with a losing record. Look for more of the same here and fade the false perception of the marketplace in this one. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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03-25-19 | Utah Valley +2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Monday 10* Top Play Utah Valley Wolverines (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - The Auburn Tigers are in the Sweet 16 in the Big Dance. What does that have to do with this play? Plenty! The Tigers barely survived their first round game when they beat the New Mexico State Aggies by just a single point. That is the same Aggies team that finished ahead of Utah Valley in the WAC this season. The Wolverines faced New Mexico State twice this season and lost to them by an average margin of just 6 points. Had the Aggies got by Auburn it might be New Mexico State in the Sweet 16 and the point is that Utah Valley - a team many may not follow that closely - is actually a quality basketball program. Look for the Wolverines to upset the Bulls here. South Florida barely survived Stony Brook to get to this point. Prior to that win, the Bulls had lost 7 of their 8 prior games. They've been on a late season fade and Utah Valley's strength of schedule is NOT that much different from USF on the season. That said, the fact that the Wolverines are 24-6 in their last 30 games and the Bulls are 2-7 in their last 9 games means plenty! 10* UTAH VALLEY |
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03-24-19 | Ohio State v. Houston OVER 132 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #871 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 8:40 ET - The odds makers, fully unaware that the Cougars are a strong defensive team, put the first number on the total in this game at 134. Of course I am joking but I do think many will still feel this total is too high even though it has dropped to a 132 now. The fact is the odds makers are sharper than many people give them credit for. Of course Houston has a strong defense but Ohio State is use to a banging and bruising style in the Big Ten and the Cougars are too smart to let this game turn into a half-course snooze fest. Houston's best bet is to be quick and not allow the Buckeyes to get comfortable playing their typical style. That said, Ohio State is going to get their fair share of points here but they won't be able to stop Houston either. The Buckeyes had a poor shooting effort but snuck by Iowa State in the first round. Note that Ohio State had averaged scoring 72 points per game in their 3 games prior to facing the Cyclones and all 3 of those went over the total. The Cougars are on an under streak right now but they scored 84 points in their first round game and that means Houston has now scored 84 points or more in 6 of their last 10 games. The Cougars averaged 76 points per game this season. Many people talk about their defensive play but also fail to realize how efficient their offense is too. This one will see both teams get to 70 in my opinion. The over is a long-term 25-15 in Buckeyes NCAA Tourney games. The under in the 1st round was their first under in 4 neutral court games this season. The Cougars are 6-3 to the over in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 134.5 points. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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03-24-19 | Spurs v. Celtics -2 | Top | 115-96 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - While it is true that this is a back to back spot for the Celtics, there are a number of reasons to like Boston plenty in this situation and laying a very short number. The line has dropped from a -3 to a -2 so we're getting some extra value here for sure. Keys to this play include the fact that the Celtics blew a huge late lead in their loss at Charlotte yesterday. As a result, Boston ended up with their 3rd straight SU loss. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS the last 11 times they've entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Boston also has no shortage of motivation here. That's because the Spurs have held the upper hand in recent meetings and that includes the first match-up this season at San Antonio. The Celtics led that game by 6 at the half but then got outscored by 15 points in the 2nd half. It is payback time here. The Spurs are off back to back losses and their recent winning streak that grabbed a lot of attention was filled with home games and a majority of soft opponents. In other words, look for San Antonio to lose their 3rd straight game here as not only are they not at home, they are also certainly not facing a soft opponent. The Spurs have lost 4 of their last 6 road games and the only two wins came at Atlanta and Dallas. Those teams are a combined 37 games under .500 on the season! The Celtics are 98-42 at home including 26-11 this season. With those types of numbers and considering the low spread on this game, I am happy to lay the short number here. 10* BOSTON |
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03-24-19 | Buffalo +4 v. Texas Tech | Top | 58-78 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #869 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 6:10 ET - The Bulls are a #6 seed for a reason. Yes they come from the MAC but no one in the MAC was anywhere close to their level this season. They were the top team in the conference by a huge margin and that truly puts them at a level of being able to compete with any team in the nation in my opinion. Buffalo is deep and loaded with scoring depth and experience. That is the type of team that can challenge a solid defense like the Red Raiders have. That said, and with this line climbing from +3 to a +4, I am happy to grab the underdog value here with Buffalo. Note that the Bulls are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. Long-term Buffalo also has some impressive technical support here as the Bulls are 10-1 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 points. The Red Raiders are 0-3 ATS (and SU!) in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5 points. Certainly I respect the Texas Tech defense but will they have enough offense to keep up with a Bulls team that has a very balanced attack on offense? I don't think so as I know that the Red Raiders have been scoring much better for an extended stretch now but they've also faced some match-ups that were very favorable for them and this one does not fall into that category in my opinion. I am expecting the upset here but will grab the points for added insurance should the Bulls fall just short. 10* BUFFALO |
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03-23-19 | Villanova +3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #837 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 9 ET - Everyone is gunning for the national champions of course and it does make sense that the higher seed in this match-up would be the favorite. However, the result for us simply means exceptional line value. The defending champion Wildcats have been an underdog 5 times this season. The result has been a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in those games with 3 outright upsets. As for Purdue, they are a long-term 6-11 ATS in neutral court games where they are favored in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the most recent seasons in that role have seen the Boilermakers go 0-3 and two of the three losses were outright upsets which is what I am expecting here. Though Nova lost some key players from last season's team, they certainly are not without veteran leadership. Also, the Wildcats Jay Wright is absolutely one of the top coaches in the nation. This is a tough team to beat let alone beat by a couple buckets. Over the past 5 weeks Villanova hasn't been covering many of their games and this has resulted in diminished perception in the marketplace when it comes to the Wildcats. That leads to value in a spot like this because the Cats still have won 6 of their last 7 games SU and seem to be getting hot again at the perfect time. Purdue has not been shooting the ball well of late and they had lost 2 of 3 prior to knocking off an Old Dominion team that simply had a horrific shooting performance in their match-up Thursday. Also, the Boilers are on an 0-4 ATS run the last 4 times they've been a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Their struggles in that role continue here and I expect the upset but am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-23-19 | 76ers -8 v. Hawks | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Hidden Gem - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - I am calling this a hidden gem because the fact it is that on a Saturday when the NCAA Tournament is going in full force there is simply very little attention being paid to the NBA. That works in our favor here as this line should be much higher than an 8. This is a revenge game for Philadelphia as they suffered a home loss at the hands of the Hawks in January. While it is true that the 76ers are off a much needed revenge win over the Celtics, it is also true that they have had two full off days since that game and after facing the Hawks they face another team, Orlando, that also has a losing record on the season. The point is that even if the Sixers start off a bit sluggish in Atlanta their superior talent level is eventually going to lead to a double digit win. Keep in mind the Hawks also, it could be argued, are in a flat spot here. That is because they just rallied for an upset win over the Jazz on Thursday. Prior to that win the Hawks had lost 10 of their last 15 games. The 76ers enter this game having won 6 straight games. Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in games against teams from the Atlantic Division this season. Philly is a long-term 37-18 ATS (including 6-2 ATS this season) when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Sixers are 11-3 ATS when off a divisional game this season. In other words, even though they are off that big win over the Celtics, don't be surprised when the 76'ers eventually roll to a road rout win at Atlanta on Saturday night. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-22-19 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
1st Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #813 Friday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 9:50 ET - Having Kaleb Wesson back is a key for the Buckeyes and had he not had foul trouble and been limited to just 16 minutes versus Michigan State who knows how that eventual 7 point loss might have turned out. Keep in mind Wesson missed the final 3 games of the regular season and all 3 of those were losses. Certainly Wesson is an important player for Ohio State and he entered the Spartans game having scored 17 points or more in 3 of his 4 prior games. Also, Wesson had notched 5 steals, 7 assists, and 4 blocks in his 2 prior games. In his 5 prior games he had averaged 9.8 rebounds per game! The Buckeyes are 6-0 all time against the Cyclones and while I certainly respect Iowa State, did they use up all their magic in the feverish run through the Big 12 tourney? The fact is the Cyclones entered the tournament having lost 6 of their 8 prior games. I feel we're getting great line value here with the sizable points being offered to Ohio State. Iowa State is on an 0-4 ATS run in games with a posted total between 132 and 142 points. The Buckeyes physical style could take the Cyclones out of their game and Iowa State certainly is not known for their defense either so if their shots aren't falling on the other end they're in trouble here! We're getting line value here with Ohio State because they have an ugly ATS record on the season including a poor late season run at the betting window. Take advantage of the value with a team that is built well for some tournament upsets! 10* OHIO STATE |
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03-22-19 | Clippers v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games and that included knocking off the Raptors and the Bucks! Now they host a Clippers team playing the first game of an eastern road swing. These road trips tend to be tough on west coast teams. Even if the Clippers find a way to notch a road win here I expect it to come by the slimmest of margins. Certainly with the Cavaliers confidence growing with each late season win they are playing their best basketball of the season and have a chance at the outright upset here. Kevin Love has been cleared to play and that was a key for me in backing the Cavs here. The Clippers are off a win and cover but, prior to that big home win versus the Pacers, the Clips had failed to cover 3 straight games. The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. Los Angeles is 12-21 ATS when the Clippers enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. 10* CLEVELAND |
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03-22-19 | North Dakota State v. Duke OVER 148.5 | Top | 62-85 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
1st Round Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #797 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs North Dakota State Bison @ 7:10 ET - The Bison are known for their hot shooting ability but they also are horrible defensively. I expect that to lead to plenty of points in this one. North Dakota State is now 6-2 to the over this season in neutral site games after their game versus North Carolina Central on Wednesday easily went over the total. The Bison have scored an average of 79 points per game in their 8 neutral site games this season. ND St has shot better than 40% from three point land in EACH of their last four games. The way I see this game playing out is that Duke will score a ton of points and get out to a huge lead and then will be able to relax defensively. This will open up the scoring for the Bison in "garbage time" as this game goes on. North Dakota State has proven all season long they have sharpshooters and that will help send this one over the total because Duke might get to triple digits on their own in this one! The over is 4-1 in Bison NCAA Tournament games. The Blue Devils are a long-term 16-10 to the over in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, just two of Duke's last 6 NCAA Tournament games have resulted in an under. The Blue Devils averaged 88 points per game this season in games where they were favored by 13 or more points. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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03-21-19 | Jazz v. Hawks +8 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #586 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are off back to back losses (SU and ATS). However, Atlanta previously was on an 11-3 ATS run. Also, though the Hawks have lost 3 straight games SU, that included match-ups with the Celtics and Rockets. Of course the Jazz also fall into the "quality team" category but I like the fact that Atlanta is at home and catching Utah in the 2nd game of a back to back. Getting 8 points with the Hawks in a spot like this is a great value. The Jazz are on a 5-game winning streak both SU and ATS but are still just 3-8 ATS when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games. In other words, don't be surprised when their 5-game run comes to an end tonight (at least ATS). Look for the Hawks to improve to 11-6 ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak (SU) of 3 or more games. 10* ATLANTA |
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03-21-19 | Florida v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #778 Thursday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs Florida Gators @ 6:50 ET - The Gators are a popular choice for many due to having faced the tougher schedule this season since they come from the SEC. In typical contrarian fashion for me I am backing the Wolf Pack in this spot! The fact is that Nevada is a high-quality team and their weakness (depth/bench) won't be an issue here since they've had plenty of time off leading into this game. In fact, the Wolf Pack are 14-0 SU (11-2-1 ATS) the last 14 times they've entered a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. While Nevada has played an easier schedule than Florida one has to give them credit for their consistency and this Wolf Pack team has veteran players and Big Dance experience. They certainly won't be "star struck" by facing an SEC team on this stage. The Wolf Pack had one inexcusable performance (a loss to New Mexico) this season. Their other losses were to Utah State (28 wins) and San Diego State (21 wins). The Aztecs actually took 2 out of 3 from the Wolf Pack but Nevada's two losses to San Diego State were both by single digits while their win was by 28 points! Similarly, the Wolf Pack lost to the Aggies by just 5 points but their win over them came by 23 points! Nevada averages 80.7 points a game and certainly the Gators are an offensively challenged team. This game may be tight for awhile but eventually the Wolf Pack pull away and, with a small line on this game, that should translate to an easy cover. Florida is 6-18 SU (and 8-16 ATS) the last 24 times they've been an underdog. The Wolf Pack are 11-0 SU (and 8-2-1 ATS) when off a conference loss. 10* NEVADA |
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03-21-19 | Northeastern v. Kansas OVER 143 | Top | 53-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #783 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Northeastern Huskies @ 4 ET - The Huskies live and die with the 3-ball but it looks like that should set them up very well in this game. Northeastern knocked down an incredible 40% of their three pointers this season in road games! Kansas allowed a whopping 37.4% from beyond the arc in their road games this season. In other words, the Huskies should do some damage with their outside shooting in this game. The key to the value with the over here is that, while Northeastern should score plenty, they will struggle to stop a high-power Kansas attack that was one of the top scoring teams in the Big 12. The Jayhawks went 9-3 to the over in non-conference games this season. Also, Kansas is 7-2 to the over the past two seasons in NCAA Tournament games! Overall, Jayhawks games played in the month of March on a 15-6 run to the over. The Huskies are 11-6 to the over this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Northeastern is 8-4 to the over in non-conference games this season. Huskies have allowed 46% shooting to their opponents on the season. Plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in Kansas |
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03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
First Four Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #714 Wednesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9:10 ET - Long-term the Sun Devils are 5-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in games against teams from the Big East Conference. Also, the Pac-12 certainly was not overly impressive this season. Arizona State finished the season stronger than St John's did as the Sun Devils won 6 of their last 8 games while the Red Storm lost 4 of their last 5 games. However, when it is a "win to get in" situation, things can change in a hurry. In other words, don't be surprised when the Red Storm really raises their level of play on the defensive end in this one. Prior to an ugly loss to Xavier in their final game of February, St John's held their 6 prior opponents to an average of 40% from the field and none of those 6 shot better than 43% from the field. The Sun Devils enter this game having allowed 45% from the field over their last 7 games away from home. Arizona State beat the Red Storm when they most recently met two years ago but St John's had 9 more shots from the field but had a rare poor shooting night while the Sun Devils shot well in that match-up. The recent trending of these two teams as well as the ASU win in their most recent meeting is resulting in too much respect being given to the Sun Devils here. Grab the value with the hungry dog and, keep in mind, you hear a lot about St John's Shamorie Ponds but when Mustapha Herron plays 27 minutes or more (and he is healthier again), the Red Storm have won 4 of their last 6 games. Herron averaged 22 points per game in the 3 most recent of those 4 wins. Look for him to come up big here while Ponds and LJ Figueroa also have big games to lead the way to an "upset" here. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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03-20-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Atlantic Division #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers purposely rested Joel Embiid last night in their win at Charlotte so he would be ready for this huge match-up tonight as the Sixers host the Celtics. The very first number that popped up offshore on this one had Philly -4.5 but the line has dropped down to as low as a -2.5 as of early game day morning. This is offering great line value on a Philadelphia team that has an extreme hunger about them when it comes to knocking off Boston here. Not only are the Celtics long-time rivals, not only did Boston knock the 76ers out of the post-season last spring, the C's also have won all 3 meeting this season! To say that Philadelphia "owes them one" is a colossal understatement. The fact is the Sixers owe them plenty and with Boston off a loss and having lost 7 of their last 13 games, the timing is perfect here. The Celtics games against quality opponents (Denver, Clippers, Golden State, Houston, Portland, Toronto, Milwaukee) have seen them go 1-6 SU since the All-Star break. In other words, with the exception of beating the Warriors, the only wins that Boston has been getting since the All Star break have come against weak foes. Also, the Celtics last 6 losses have come by an average margin of 14 points so the spread should not be an issue here. As for the 76ers, they have won 5 straight games. Also, the Sixers have won 14 of their last 20 home games. When playing with home loss revenge Philly is 37-17 ATS including 6-1 ATS this season. The Celtics have covered just 6 of their last 18 road games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple +3.5 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #672 Tuesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Belmont Bruins @ 9:10 ET - The Bruins have the better record and the betting markets strongly favor them in this match-up. Of course you know what that usually means! The fact is that the first number that popped up off-shore on this game had the line at very nearly a pick'em. Now it has been driven all the way up to a -3.5 on Belmont! This is offering tremendous underdog line value to a Temple team that has a long-time veteran coach (Fran Dunphy) and that has played a much tougher schedule this season than the Bruins. Yes Belmont has a very high-scoring offense but keep in mind the competition that they faced. Also, the Owls are 16-6 ATS their last 22 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game! The Bruins are 3-6 ATS their last 9 tournament games. Specific to the NCAA Tourney Belmont is a long-term 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS). The Bruins are a long-term 1-3 ATS when they are a neutral court favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Temple is on a 7-3 ATS run in games with a posted total in the 150s. Additionally, the Owls went 4-0 SU in games with a posted total in the 150s this season. They will call this one an upset when it goes into the books but truly the earliest of the first numbers posted on this game (right around a pick'em) had it right! Grab the extra value of the points but we should not need them. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-19-19 | 76ers -1 v. Hornets | Top | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have Boston on deck and also will be resting Joel Embiid tonight. As a result, many will be looking the way of the Hornets in this one tonight. However, Charlotte is 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against the Sixers. Also, the Hornets play in the weakest division in the NBA. Even though Charlotte fell short at Miami Saturday, they are still 10-5 against Southeast Division opponents. That means that the Hornets are a horrible 21-33 against the rest of the league! They now host a Sixers team that is 45-25 on the season! Also, Philly is 8-1 SU its last 9 versus teams with a losing record. The Hornets are 3-10 SU their last 13 versus teams with a winning record. Charlotte is also a long-term 14-36 ATS (16-34 SU) against Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets enter this game on a 4-10 SU run and 3-11 ATS run. Also, even though Philly has the Celtics on deck, they are well aware of the fact that they are in a huge battle with the Indiana and Boston in terms of the 3,4,5 seeding in the Eastern Conference. Dropping to 5th means no home court edge in the opening series. In other words, with just a dozen regular season games left, every W counts. Look for the 76ers to get this W against an out-classed Charlotte team as the Sixers make it 10 in a row over the Hornets. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-18-19 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Many believe the Western Conference is better than the Eastern Conference and it has been that way for many consecutive seasons. I feel we're getting great value here with a high-quality Nuggets team as a sizable underdog here. The Celtics are 10-17 ATS against the West this season. Denver enters this game having gone 16-8 SU against the East this season. Also, the Nuggets are 14-8 ATS (15-7 SU) this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. Boston is a long-term 11-20 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Celtics are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times they've allowed 115 points or more. Boston got the sweep last season (but only by a combined margin of 7 points) and the Nuggets are looking to return the favor this season after already winning at home by 8 points earlier in the season. Based on the above trends, the situational value here, and the fact the Celtics are a little banged up, don't be surprised if the road dog wins this one outright. Grab the points! 10* DENVER |
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03-17-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Not only is Philadelphia 10-5 SU their last 15 games, 3 of the 5 losses came by 3 or less points. Of course that means that at +6.5 (the current line on today's game), the 76ers would be on a 13-2 ATS run. Certainly Milwaukee deserves plenty of respect and the Bucks are at home here. However, there isn't nearly enough respect being given to a Sixers team that is viewing this game as a chance to prove themselves against one of the best teams in the league. The Bucks have covered each of their last two home games but prior to that they were on an 0-3 ATS run in home games. Keep in mind, Milwaukee just returned from a 3-game road trip too. Conversely, Philly has won 3 straight games and has been enjoying the comforts of home. The 76ers have revenge from a loss by a double digit margin at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. Philadelphia is a much different team now than they were then when these teams met in late October. Keep in mind the Bucks were only favored by 5 in that game. Now they are favored by 6.5 even though the Sixers now have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. You can see why the Sixers are offering great value here. Also, Philly is 38-18 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The Sixers are also 57-30 ATS when coming off a non-conference game. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in a home game with a posted total of 230 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-17-19 | Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 130.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten #1 Top Game O/U - Rickenbach CBB Game #655 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines @ 3:30 ET - The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is 9-4 when Michigan State, past the midway point in a season, faces a team that is allowing 64 points or less per game. Why? The reason is because the oddsmakers tend to over-adjust when the Spartans are matched up with a team that is also strong defensively just like they are. That said, we've got a lot of value here as this total opened up in the mid-130s but has dropped down to as low as 130 early this morning. Even with yesterday's Michigan game staying under the total, the over is still on a 7-3 run in Wolverines conference tournament games. The Spartans game yesterday also stayed under the total but that is part of what is driving the total down in this one and leading to even more value on the over. 70% of yesterday's games stayed under the total and the betting public is always guilty of being very short-sighted. Just because the majority of games stayed under the total yesterday does not mean a repeat performance today. Yet you're seeing most of the unders getting pounded today. Even though both these teams were involved in unders yesterday, the Spartans scored 67 points and they're averaging 79 points per game on the season! The Wolverines scored 76 points yesterday and they've scored 69 points or more in 8 of their last 11 games. 10* OVER the total in the Big Ten Championship Game |
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03-17-19 | Cincinnati +5.5 v. Houston | Top | 69-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #653 Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Houston Cougars @ 3:15 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on Houston and has been bet up to a -5.5 as of early Sunday morning. Of course the public remembers that Houston has beaten Cincinnati in both meetings this season. However, not only is it tough to win 3 straight over a conference rival in the same season, there is also the matter of the point spread here as well. The Cougars blew the cover against Memphis yesterday and the same thing is absolutely possible here as the Bearcats come into this game rolling with confidence and fully capable of an outright upset. That said, if Cincinnati does fall short of the upset bid I fully expect the defeat to be by a margin of just a single possession. The Bearcats most recent loss was an ugly one versus Houston but 2 of Cincinnati's 3 prior losses came by 3 or less points. The average margin of defeat in the Bearcats 3 prior losses was just 4 points. Cincinnati had 13 more field goal attempts than Houston in the first meeting this season. The Bearcats simply had an awful shooting performance. In the 2nd meeting the Cougars made a ridiculous 12 of 23 three pointers. That resulted in Houston having 18 more points from beyond the arc and that certainly was the key difference in the 16-point victory. The Bearcats have a history of getting to the line much more than the Cougars in their match-ups with an edge of 122 to 69 in free throw attempts in the last 5 meetings. Don't be surprised when the Bearcats gut out an upset win here with the charity stripe also being an edge. 10* CINCINNATI |
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03-16-19 | Suns +2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - The Pelicans have a winning record at home this season. The Suns are 6-30 on the road this season. So when this line opened up at nearly a pick'em, it comes as no surprise that everyone jumped all over New Orleans in this game and drove the line to as high as a -3 on the Pelicans. However, do you think the odds makers are fools? They knew what they were doing here! Anthony Davis (rest) and Jrue Holiday (abdominal) are listed as out for this game. Also, the Pelicans have lost 5 straight games overall and also 5 straight home games. The Suns have been playing better of late as they've actually won 5 of their last 9 games overall. Also, Phoenix is on a perfect 4-0 ATS run in road games and 2 of those wins were outright upset wins. Ride the hot team (Phoenix) in this one as they improve to 8-4 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. In the process, the Suns will drop New Orleans to 3-10 SU this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. 10* PHOENIX |
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03-16-19 | Seton Hall v. Villanova OVER 135 | Top | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #629 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Villanova Wildcats vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 6:30 ET - The over is 3-0 in Villanova's last 3 games and the Wildcats game with the Pirates last Saturday totaled 154 points. Seton Hall enters this game having allowed 70 points or more in 7 of its last 9 games. The Pirates have also scored 70 points or more in each of their last 5 games away from home. Villanova has scored over 70 points in 4 straight games. Based on these numbers it is very reasonable to expect this game to get into the 140s. The over is on an 11-5 run in Seton Hall's tournament games. The over is on a 10-4 run in Wildcats games played away from home. These teams shot the 3-ball very well in their last meeting and I expect more of the same in the rematch as they play their 3rd straight game in 3 days at Madison Square Garden in New York. 10* OVER the total in Villanova |
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03-16-19 | Memphis +8.5 v. Houston | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
AAC #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 3 ET - I used the Tigers yesterday and they blasted a respectable Central Florida team. The Cougars are also off an impressive win but it came against a Huskies team that had a down season. I like this senior-laden Memphis team to give Houston all they can handle here. That said, we've got great line value with the points being offered. This one opened up at a 7.5 but is up to an 8.5 as of early this morning. The Tigers lost by double digits at Houston earlier this season but they've been playing much better on defense of late compared to how they were playing on that end of the floor in early January when they faced the Cougars. Memphis has held five straight opponents to 39.1% or less from the field. The Tigers held those 5 opponents to an average of 66 points per game and, keep in mind, Memphis is averaging a solid 81 points per game on the other end of the floor. The point is that the Tigers are currently getting the job done on both ends of the floor. Memphis is 7-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, the Tigers are 8-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. I look for Houston's record to drop to 3-6 ATS the last 9 times they've played a neutral court game with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. 10* MEMPHIS |
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03-15-19 | Kings v. 76ers -9 | Top | 114-123 | Push | 0 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have revenge from a loss at Sacramento earlier this season and, keep in mind, the Kings did sweep Philly last season. It is definitely payback time here and the Sixers are catching Sacramento at the right time to exact revenge. The Kings are off a hard-fought loss at Boston last night. Note that the Kings are an ugly 2-8 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the Sixers SU and ATS loss at Sacramento early last month certainly appears to be an aberration. The 76ers are a fantastic 7-1 SU and ATS in their other 8 games against Pacific Division opponents this season. Philly's Ben Simmons has been upgraded to probable for this game as well and a double digit victory is in the forecast here. The Sixers playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Kings are in a back to back. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-15-19 | Auburn -8 v. South Carolina | Top | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
SEC #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs South Carolina Gameocks @ 3:30 ET - The Tigers lost their match-up at South Carolina in the regular season. In that match-up the Gamecocks Chris Silva had a season high 32 points and made 11 of 12 from the field. The rest of the team made only 19 of 52 attempts from the field. Also, the fact that game was at home also makes a difference. Though Silva had a big game in his road finale too, his 8 prior games away from home saw him average only 10.1 points per game. As you can see he is much more likely to be closer to 10 points in this game than the 32 he scored in the first meeting. Yes, the Gamecocks ended up being the higher seed in the SEC Tourney but the Tigers are the ranked team and for good reason. I look for them to blast South Carolina in the rematch. The Gamecocks have been held to 40% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have shot over 45.2% in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for Auburn to have their physicality on the increase throughout this tourney and they showed that in their win over Missouri yesterday. The Tigers know they need that again here against Silva and Company and I expect it to be on full display as they get payback big here! The Gamecocks have a strong ATS streak against the Tigers but it ends here. Auburn is the much better team this season and the first game was truly an aberration. The Tigers are on an 11-6 ATS run when playing with road loss revenge. South Carolina is 14-25 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. That is a long-term trend but the point is that oftentimes it proves better for momentum if you keep playing and sometimes rest leads to rust. The fact that Auburn was in action yesterday arguably could end up giving them the edge in this rematch with the rusty Gamecocks. 10* AUBURN |
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03-14-19 | Thunder v. Pacers OVER 219 | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - The Thunder are off a win versus Brooklyn yesterday that stayed well under the total as I know all too well. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over today. Oklahoma City had a horrific start on the offensive end yesterday and that set the tone for the entire game. Now on the road and in a back to back spot, the Thunder know they can ill afford another slow start. I look for OKC to hit the floor running in this one and we should see a good pace throughout. Oklahoma City is 16-6 to the over this season when coming off a non-conference game. I am well aware of the fact that, like the Thunder, the Pacers have been trending under of late. However, the Pacers have scored an average of 125 points per game in their last 4 home games versus teams from the Western Conference. The over went 3-1 in those 4 games. Indiana, going further back, is 6-2 to the over the last 8 times the Pacers have been a host in non-conference action. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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03-14-19 | St. Joe's -119 v. Duquesne | Top | 92-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Atlantic 10 #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #693 Thursday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs Duquesne Dukes @ 6 ET - This is another one that many view as an odd line. The Hawks opened up as the favorite here even though St Joseph's is 5 games over .500 while the Dukes are 7 games over the .500 mark on the season! Must be some kind of huge mistake by the oddsmakers, right? Of course that is not the case and the fact is that we've got great value here with the small line on a St Joseph's team that has played a tougher schedule in comparison with Duquesne this season. Also, the Hawks have revenge for a 1 point road loss to the Dukes two months ago. Duquesne has allowed opponents to shoot 49% or better in 4 of their last 6 games. St Joseph's has held their last 4 opponents to a combined shooting percentage under 40% from the field. The Hawks went 11-5 SU this season as a favorite. Also, St Joseph's is a long-term 20-13 ATS when off a loss in conference action including 4-1 ATS their last 5. The Dukes are on a 2-5 SU and ATS run in games played on a neutral court. Long-term Duquesne is an awful 22-42 ATS and 16-51 SU in games played in the month of March. 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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03-13-19 | Nets v. Thunder OVER 230 | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - I looked like a fool with my play on the over in Brooklyn on Monday but I don't know if I have ever seen something like this in my life! The Nets gave up just 75 points even though they allowed the Pistons 97 field goal attempts! Detroit simply was horrific with their shooting as they made just 27.8% of their shots from the field! Truly unreal and also noteworthy here as the over is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times the Nets were off a game in which they allowed 75 points or less. Brooklyn's pace has certainly been conducive to overs of late even though overs have not been cashing in. The Nets have allowed an average of 101 field goal attempts in their past two games and 97.2 FG attempts their last 11 games! The Thunder certainly have no qualms about getting into high-scoring shootouts with teams but, like the Nets, they are off of a bit of an unusual game. They played the defensive-minded Jazz and Utah and Oklahoma City both failed to reach the century mark in that game. The over is 18-9 in Brooklyn's last 27 games against Northwest Division opponents. The over is 13-7 in Oklahoma City's home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times the Thunder were off a game in which they held their opponent under 100 points. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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03-13-19 | Wyoming v. New Mexico OVER 145.5 | Top | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - These teams just met at Wyoming on Saturday and the game totaled 169 points. The Lobos totaled 81 points and the amazing aspect of that is that New Mexico had 7 players that played 17 minutes or more in the game and 4 of the 7 combined to make just 9 of their 35 field goal attempts. Even with poor shooting from 4 guys whom each had at least 7 field goal attempts, New Mexico still put up 81 points on the scoreboard. Both the Lobos and Cowboys are two of the worst teams defensively in the Mountain West in terms of points allowed. Also, Wyoming has built up confidence (particularly on the offensive end) based on recent performances. The Cowboys have won back to back games for the first time this season and Wyoming has averaged scoring 80.3 points per game their last 3 games. On the season the Lobos have averaged 76 points per game so I expect plenty of points in this one. New Mexico has averaged 92 points per game in their last 4 meetings with Wyoming. The Cowboys have scored 75 points or more in 3 of last 4 meetings with Lobos. Also, in the last 3 meetings NOT played at New Mexico (either at Wyoming or at neutral site) the Cowboys have averaged scoring 92.3 points per game! The over is 3-0 in Wyoming's last 3 games overall. The over is 4-1 this season in Lobos games with a posted total of 148 or less. This one falls into that category and after opening as high as a 147 has dropped to as low as a 145.5 as of early this morning. That is a value add I won't pass up. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
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03-12-19 | Cavs v. 76ers OVER 221.5 | Top | 99-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Cavs are off a big upset win over the Raptors last night. Don't be surprised if they are a little flat on the defensive end tonight. The 76ers are rested after a big win over Indiana Sunday. In that game the Sixers really turned the heat up on defense in the 2nd half to eventually pull away and win by double digits. As they now face one of the worst teams in the NBA and also have 2 more off days on deck after this. I would not be surprised to see Philly lacking in defensive intensity tonight as well. The last 3 meetings between these teams all went over the total and they averaged 242.7 points per game. As you would expect with that type of average, all 3 games flew over the total! The Cavaliers enter this game on a 7-3 run to the over. Cleveland is 11-5 to the over this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. As a home favorite of 12.5 points or more, the 76ers are 3-1 to the over this season. The Sixers have averaged scoring 124 points per game in their last 3 games against the Cavs. The Cavaliers have scored an average of 121.3 points per game in their last 3 visits to the City of Brotherly Love. Look for more of the same in this one as it crushes the posted total. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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03-12-19 | Notre Dame -122 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 2:30 ET in ACC Tournament at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC - This line opened up at a -2.5 on Notre Dame even though the Fighting Irish went just 3-15 in ACC action while the Yellow Jackets finished the ACC regular season campaign with a 6-12 mark. Of course this means the odds makers made an egregious mistake, right? That is what the betting markets would lead you to believe as they drove the line down to as low as a -1 and the money line (best play here in my opinion) fell down to the -120 range. In typical contrarian fashion I am against the move here. Keep in mind, Notre Dame only split with Georgia Tech this season but the Irish had 13 more field goal attempts than the Jackets in the road match-up and 10 more in the home match-up. The reasons for the advantage in attempts were edges in rebounding and in turnovers. I look for those areas to continue to be factors here and the Fighting Irish will take advantage of their additional scoring opportunities to advance in the ACC tourney. The Irish went 11-3 SU this season as a favorite. In the past 2+ seasons the Fighting Irish are 21-3 SU when facing a team with a losing record. The Yellow Jackets are playing with road loss revenge here but that is a situation that has seen them go 1-8 SU this season! Georgia Tech is also 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on a neutral court. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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03-11-19 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 75-103 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:35 ET - The Nets have stayed under the total in 4 straight games. However, Brooklyn has scored an average of 118 points per game their last 3 games. But, as a result of the under streak, the posted total on this one already dropped from an opener of 222.5 down to a 221 overnight heading into Monday. The Pistons come into this game off an under but, prior to that, the over was 9-1 in Detroit's last 10 games! Also, the over is 10-5 this season in Pistons games against Atlantic Division opponents. Detroit has averaged scoring 121 points per game in its last 4 games. The over in Nets game improves to 14-8 the last 22 times they've entered a game on an under streak of 3 more consecutive games. Both teams have been scoring very well and that continues here. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-11-19 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -9.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #870 Monday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 7 ET - Central Michigan just played at Western Michigan Friday. Though the game was decided by a 7 point margin, the Chippewas led the game by 15 points at the half. Keep in mind, this followed a 21 point beating that the Chips put on the Broncos when they hosted them in early February. Now, in conference tournament action, the Chippewas again are the host and another beating is likely here. Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Chips are 11-4 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. This line dropped from an early opener of 11 down to a 9.5 as of overnight heading into Monday. Western Michigan, versus teams that average 77 points or more, has gone 2-8 ATS this season. The Broncos are a long-term 7-14 ATS in first round tournament games. Western Michigan also is a poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played in the month of March. All signs point to a home blowout here. I normally don't lay big points but the edges here are too strong. Keep in mind the Chippewas won the turnover battle 20-8 when these teams met here last month! 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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03-10-19 | Pacers v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - It looks like Joel Embiid will be back for this game. Even though the Sixers got blown out by the Rockets in their most recent game they truly were done in by poor shooting. If they had just shot "normal" Philly would have won the game outright. Instead it was a blowout loss but that helps with the line value here actually. The 76ers are a very manageable favorite against a Pacers team that they blew out by 24 in the most recent meetings at Indiana. The Pacers are on a poor 3-11 ATS run in their last 14 road games. The Sixers are very hungry for a win here and will be rejuvenated by the expected return of Embiid and the fact this game is at home. Philly is off back to back losses and they are a perfect 4-0 SU when off B2B straight-up losses this season. Indeed, the 76ers have not lost 3 straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 2-5 ATS this season. The Sixers are 36-18 ATS (including 9-3 ATS this season) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, Philly is 74-46 ATS long-term in home games. Look for a blowout by the host in this one with a winning margin by double digits expected. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-10-19 | Connecticut v. East Carolina OVER 141.5 | Top | 82-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
The Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #839 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in East Carolina Pirates vs Connecticut Huskies @ 2 ET - Two of the worst teams in the American Athletic Conference matched up in this season finale. Allowing too many points has been a big part of the problem for both teams. The Huskies tend to forget their defense at home when they have hit the road this season! Connecticut held the Shockers to 65 points at Wichita State in their most recent road game but previously had allowed 77 points per game in their 4 prior road games. The Huskies gave up at least 73 points in all 4 of those road games. As for East Carolina, they've allowed 72 points or more in 7 straight games. In those 7 games, the Pirates have allowed an average of 81.6 points per game. Look for both teams to play very loose in this season finale. Certainly the Pirates are the lesser of the two teams but East Carolina's games had gone over the total in 4 straight games prior to their ugly loss at Wichita State. In those 4 games the Pirates averaged scoring 75.3 points per game. Look for both teams to get into the 70s in this one as it flies over the total. On the season Connecticut is allowing 78 points per game when on the road. The Pirates are allowing 74 points on the season in all their games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in East Carolina |
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03-09-19 | Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 155.5 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #707 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Tigers vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 9:30 ET - Many will look at this total and feel it is too big but I see plenty of value here with the over. Memphis has locked in their seeding for the upcoming AAC Tourney and now at home on senior day. The Tigers are loaded with seniors and will be able to play a loose and relaxed game with no pressure. That will equate to plenty of points in this one as Tulsa certainly is fine with a fast-paced style as well. The first meeting between these teams this season saw the teams combine for 174 points. The Golden Hurricane scored 95 in that game and they enter this game off a confidence-boosting win versus East Carolina. They put up 91 points in that game and even though the Pirates are a bad team, having a huge performance like that does wonders for the confidence of scorers. In other words, look for Tulsa to again be lighting up the scoreboard in this one but, at the same time, Memphis is going to have a huge game in their home finale. The Tigers are off a bit of a grinder at Cincinnati but that is typical Bearcats basketball. Now Memphis will go back into run and gun mode for this one and the Tigers had averaged 90 points per game in their 3 games prior to the loss to Cincy. The Golden Hurricane are 5-1 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. Tulsa is 4-0 to the over this season in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Tigers are 8-3 to the over in Saturday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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03-09-19 | Wizards v. Wolves OVER 241 | Top | 130-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The over is a red hot 11-2 in the Wolves last 13 games. The over is 12-2 in the Wizards last 14 games. This is a back to back spot for Washington and they are 29-13 to the over their last 42 when in the 2nd game of a back to back. The Wizards are 9-1 to the over in Saturday games this season. Minnesota is playing this game with revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 21-9 to the over this season. Also, the Timberwolves are 7-0 to the over in games against teams from the Southeast Division this season. Minnesota is 18-6 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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03-09-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Michigan State Wolverines @ 8 ET - Both teams have some injury situations but here is the key with that. The lone guy on the report for Michigan is Charles Matthews. Yes he is a starter and a solid player but he struggled and went 1 for 8 from the field with, overall, a very ugly stat line on the game, when these teams met two weeks ago in Ann Arbor. That was his 2nd straight poor game and now, without him, Michigan has won back to back games and played very well. In the loss to the Spartans two weeks ago the Wolverines actually had 10 more field goal attempts than Michigan State but were done in by some sub-par shooting and Matthews was a key contributor to that. With the Spartans currently without Joshua Langford for the season plus Nick Ward (hand) and Kyle Ahrens (back) also having issues, I would argue that the Wolverines injury situation is currently much better than that of the Spartans. At the same time, the fact this game is at Michigan State means we get additional line value as we can grab Michigan as a significant dog here. I'll gladly challenge the Spartans to win this game by more than a single possession (current line 3.5) as the fact is I expect the Wolverines to get their revenge. Michigan had won 3 straight in this series prior to the loss two weeks ago. Michigan State is on a 6-14 ATS run in Saturday games. The Spartans are on a 4-8 ATS run in March games. Michigan is on a 17-2 SU run in March games. The Wolverines also are on a sparking 14-6 ATS run as an underdog! 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-08-19 | Wizards v. Hornets OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The over is 14-2 in Washington's last 16 games. This is a key divisional battle but I just don't see how this game won't go over the total as both teams have been trending over and they've also trended over in their recent match-ups. 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Charlotte's most recent game stayed under the total but they entered that game having gone over the total in 9 of their 12 prior games. Also, the Hornets most recent game ended up with a ridiculously low total of points scored. Charlotte managed only 84 points against the Heat on Wednesday and the over is a perfect 5-0 this season when the Hornets are off a game in which they were held to 93 points or less. Charlotte held the Heat to just 91 points on Wednesday and the Hornets are 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they are off a game in which they held their opponent under the century mark. Charlotte's divisional games are 8-4 to the over this season. Washington is 9-3 to the over in divisional games this season. The over is 13-6 in Wizards games with posted total of 230 points or more. In other words, though this total may appear to be big, it will prove to once again be not big enough. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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03-08-19 | Minnesota v. Maryland -7 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #854 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7 ET - With the Terrapins off back to back losses and the Golden Gophers off back to back wins, the set up here is perfect. We're getting value with a number kept lower than it should be considering this is a situation where Minnesota should get blown out on the road at Maryland. The Terrapins are 6-2 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Also, Maryland has not lost 3 straight games all season. Keep in mind, the Terrapins last two games were at Penn State and then hosting Michigan. Certainly those are not easy match-ups. Also, Maryland is now hosting a Minnesota team that, prior to winning their most recent road game, had lost 6 in a row away from home. The average margin of defeat in those road losses for the Golden Gophers was 11 points! Minnesota is a long-term 18-33 ATS as road dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. In games with posted total ranging from 131 to 139.5 points, the Terrapins are on a sparkling 9-1 ATS run. The host in this one is the much better shooting team and also the better team defensively. Factoring all that in there is great value being offered here with this very manageable line. 10* MARYLAND |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 220.5 | Top | 98-117 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pacers are off an under versus the Bulls Tuesday but they actually allowed 93 field goal attempts in that game. A poor shooting night for Chicago helped insure that the game did not go over the total. However, Indiana entered that game on a 5-1 run to the over. As for the Bucks, they are also off of an under. Milwaukee had a poor shooting night at Phoenix Monday. Despite 95 field goal attempts, the Bucks game versus the Suns stayed under the total. Certainly the proper pace was there for an over and that is nothing new in recent Milwaukee games. The Bucks entered that game on a 4-1 run to the over. 2 of the last 3 meetings between the Pacers and Bucks in Milwaukee have gone over the total. The Bucks are happy to be back home and I expect a huge game from them on the offensive end after that shot poorly in back to back games to wrap up their road trip. The over is 27-16 when Milwaukee is off an upset loss as a favorite. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Bucks enter a game with two days of rest between games. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge and I look for the Pacers over to improve to 5-2 this season when in that situation. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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03-07-19 | Temple +1.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Thursday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 7 ET - While it is true that the Owls have a huge game on deck, they are also well aware of the fact that the game versus Central Florida will become much less important if they don't take care of business at Connecticut. The Huskies certainly have not been the same team since Jalen Adams got hurt. UConn is coming off a win versus South Florida Sunday but that victory was preceded by 6 straight losses. Dating all the back to December 22nd, the Huskies have managed back to back wins only ONCE! You can see that, after the win over the Bulls, the odds favor a loss here versus the Owls. As for Temple, they are off a non-covering win versus Tulane. What is noteworthy about the Owls season is they have had only one standalone victory this entire season. In other words, when they get a W it is normally the beginning of a nice streak for Temple and they are hell-bent on closing the season with 3 straight victories. Before even worrying about the Saturday match-up with UCF, the Owls know they need this one. All signs point to them getting it. The Owls are 4-0 SU and ATS this season as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Huskies are 1-3 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. Connecticut is also 6-12 SU (and 5-13 ATS) when in that situation the last few seasons. UConn has been held to 63 points or less in 5 straight games and also managed only 63 in the first match-up with Temple this season. The Owls have scored 70 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-06-19 | 76ers -5 v. Bulls | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Both teams in a back to back spot here. This line opened up at a -6 and dropped to a -5 on Philly. Although the Bulls have won some games recently those victories have almost all come over poor teams with losing records. One exception was the Celtics but Boston was in a funk at the time. The fact is that Chicago is an ugly 4-24 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. The 76ers are a solid 17-6 SU this season in games against teams with a losing record. You can see why the likelihood is high that the Sixers get the win. That said, the pointspread dropping to a -5 offers significant value here. 38 of the Bulls 46 losses this season have come by a margin of at least 5 points. Philadelphia has had a lot of rest prior to this back to back situation so that sets them up well. Yesterday's win over Orlando was just the 3rd game for the 76ers in the past 8 days. The Bulls, conversely, will be playing for the 4th time in 6 days. Chicago is 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU!) in their last 20 home games that had a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are on a 23-12 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-06-19 | LSU +1.5 v. Florida | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Wednesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7 ET - This is a triple revenge spot for the Tigers. Not only did they lost to the Gators in their meetings each of the last two seasons, LSU also lost this season's first match-up (in OT) versus Florida two weeks ago. The fact is that the Tigers are a perfect 8-0 on the road in SEC action this season and have been playing extremely well overall with only two losses in their 19 games dating back to mid-December. The Tigers have one of the best point guards in the nation and behind him is a freshmen who played very well during his recent two game absence. The depth of LSU at the point is a key to why this offense functions as well as it does. While the Gators are averaging only 68.3 points per game on the season, the Tigers have averaged 81.8 points per game this season. The Gators are off a home loss to Georgia. Of course that should mean a bounce back is expected here. However, Florida has been on a money-burning stretch for an extended stretch now as they've failed to cover 9 of their last 12 games. LSU is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Gators are 3-11 ATS in home games this season. Florida motivated here by hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid this season but Tigers highly motivated by revenge as well as being in the driver's seat for finishing at the top of the SEC standings for the regular season. 10* LSU |
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03-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets burned me bad on Sunday, though they beat the Celtics at Boston. The problem was that Houston scored extremely well each of the first 3 quarters but then in the 4th they didn't even total half the amount of points they did in any of the first 3 quarters. The result was a painful bad beat with the over in that situation Sunday and I won't hesitate to come right back with the over here after that was one of the worst beats of the season for sure. The total on this game at Toronto opened up at a 228.5 but has dropped to a 226.5 as of very early Tuesday morning. This is offering us great line value here. The Raptors have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games. Toronto is off a loss at Detroit where they scored only 107 points. Prior to that poor effort they had scored 118 points or more in 12 of their last 16 games. The Rockets were held to 115 at Boston due to a horrific 4th quarter but Houston entered that game having scored 118 points or more in 9 of their 12 prior games. You can see from these numbers why it is logical to expect this game to get to the mid-230s and yet the posted total has dropped to mid-220s. In terms of technical value, the over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Toronto also has revenge here and that is a situation that has seen them go 13-5 to the over this season. The Raptors also are 7-1 to the over this season in their games against Southwest Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-05-19 | Xavier v. Butler OVER 138 | Top | 66-71 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Butler Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6 ET - Butler's game at Villanova stayed under the total but they entered that game having gone over the total in 4 straight games. All signs point to the over trend resuming here. The Bulldogs have allowed 49% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Also, Butler has allowed 48% or more from the field in 7 of their last 10 games. On Tuesday they are hosting a Xavier team that has been red hot with their shooting. The Musketeers have averaged well over 50% from the field in their last 4 games and also have been consistently knocking down close to 40% of their threes during this stretch. The over only went 2-2 in those 4 games and Xavier is on a long-term under trend but that is helping keep this total lower than it should be. In fact it opened up as high as 140 but is now down to a 138 as of early Tuesday morning. This has led to even more value with the over. The last 6 meetings between these teams have seen 5 go over the total. The Musketeers are on a long-term 9-5 run to the over in games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, Xavier is a long-term 9-5 to the over as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. When off a win against a Big East foe this season the Musketeers are 5-2 to the over. Also, there is a "tightener" in all this and that is that Xavier is a perfect 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they've been on the road in a game with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. Butler is 8-1 to the over the last 9 times they've been a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. In home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points, the Bulldogs are on a 6-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in Butler |
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03-04-19 | Texas v. Texas Tech -8 | Top | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #868 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ 9 ET - The Longhorns are still without the suspended Kerwin Roach. Though they won Saturday versus Iowa State, they lost their two prior games without him. I know this spread may seem "big" but it is not without support. The Longhorns and Red Raiders have a huge rivalry and the Horns had dominated Texas Tech in games played in Austin prior to the Red Raiders road win earlier this season. How does that relate to this game? The fact is that Texas Tech won't hesitate if given the chance to blowout the Longhorns in Lubbock. I feel this one is set up perfect for that to happen as the Horns do battle without their leading scorer. Texas has scored very well in their last two games but I consider that an aberration as they shot the ball ridiculously well. Prior those two games the Horns had averaged just 66.7 points in their 3 prior games and now they face the top defense in the Big 12. Texas Tech enters this game having won 7 in a row and 6 of those wins came by at least a dozen points! Though the Red Raiders most recent home win came by just 4 points, their 4 most recent home wins prior to that each came by 19 points or more! The Longhorns are 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS their last 13 games with one day of rest or less between games. The Red Raiders, same parameters, are 8-4 SU and ATS their last dozen and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season! Additionally, Texas Tech is 7-0 SU (and 5-1-1 ATS) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points in recent seasons. Red Raiders are highly motivated for #1 spot in Big 12 and put a beating on the short-handed Horns here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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03-04-19 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nuggets and that includes covering both match-ups this season. Those games took place in late December. The Spurs were favored by 4 when they hosted the Nuggets the day after Christmas. Now, the first lines that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon had Denver as a 2 point favorite. Of course the markets are jumping all over the perceived "mistake" and have now moved the line to San Antonio being the favorite. I understand the perception but that doesn't mean I agree with it! The Nuggets are only a game over .500 in road games this season while the Spurs are 24-7 on their home floor this season. But I am here to tell you that the Nuggets are the much better overall team in comparison with this season's version of the Spurs. Yes San Antonio is off back to back wins but they previously lost 7 of their 8 prior games. I know those games were on the road but the Spurs also got blown out by double digits by the Nets and Knicks! Catching one of the best teams in the league now off back to back losses and we're not even having to lay any points (thanks to being on the road and thanks to the market action), the Nuggets are the play here. They led the Spurs by double digits at half when these teams most recently met but had a rare bad game in terms of turnovers and allowed San Antonio to close that gap in the 2nd half and lose by just 3 points. That result also now giving us some line value here as the Nuggets have substantial edges all over the floor in this match-up. The last 6 times the Nuggets have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games SU, they've gone 5-1 SU and I expect another win here in that situation. The Spurs, prior to back to back covers against the Pistons and Thunder, had gone 1-10 ATS in their 11 previous games! By the way, San Antonio was outshot by a combined 16 shots from the field in the games against Detroit and OKC. That catches up with the Spurs in this one and the Nuggets pull away as this game gets into the latter stages. 10* DENVER |
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03-03-19 | Rockets v. Celtics OVER 225 | Top | 115-104 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The very first number that popped up on this total offshore yesterday was a 229.5 and now, as of early this morning, the total has dropped down to as low as a 225 in many books. I understand the market perception here as the Celtics are known for their defense but lets not forget this is still a non-conference match-up. I like overs in non-conference match-ups as a general rule because you generally don't see the same defensive intensity you see in, for example, a key divisional battle. The last two meetings between these teams, including the match-up this season in Houston, have each totaled 240 points or more. The Rockets enter this game having averaged 118 points per game their last 13 games. Boston's last two home games have stayed under the total but, prior to this, the Celtics were on a 5-0 run to the over in home games. Also, even including their last 2 games (unders), Boston has allowed an average of 112 points per game in their last 11 games overall. Since the All Star break a Celtics offense that had been red hot before the break, has had its share of struggles. However, on Sunday they will take advantage of a Rockets defense that is allowing 111 points per game this season. This is the Celtics 3rd game of their homestand and I look for them to light it up. The Rockets have allowed 114.3 points per game in their last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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03-03-19 | Tulane v. Temple OVER 146 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #821 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Tulane Green Wave @ 2 ET - There is unlikely to be very much defensive intensity in this match-up. The Owls are one of the top teams in the AAC while the Green Wave are the worst team in the conference. We're getting a little extra line value here because this season's first match-up between these teams stayed under the total. Keep in mind, the over was on a 5-0 run prior to that. Tulane is also a long-term 17-5 to the over when playing with home loss revenge. The Green Wave also are 4-1 to the over this season as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. Temple is 9-4 to the over in home games this season. Also, the Owls are a long-term 4-1 to the over when facing teams that allow an average of 77 points or more per game. The Green Wave enter this game having allowed 82.3 points per game their last 7 games. Tulane has averaged a respectable 73.7 points per game their last 3 games. Temple has scored 81 points or more in 5 of its last 6 home games in American Athletic Conference action. The Owls have allowed 74.6 points per game their last 5 games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the 150s or even 160s early Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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03-02-19 | Warriors v. 76ers +5 | Top | 120-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on the Warriors and quickly jumped up to a -5 as the markets are loving backing Golden State here since they have revenge from earlier this season. Also, with Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic out for the Sixers that has captured attention as well. What is getting overlooked however is that the Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Klay Thompson is dealing with a sore knee. They may rest him here. Additionally, the Sixers are at home and playing for just the 2nd time in 5 nights. This is part of a stretch where Philadelphia plays only 3 games in 8 days as they have two more days off after this game. From a scheduling standpoint this situation is a great one for Philly and you know that the Wells Fargo Center will be rocking with the defending NBA champs in town. The Sixers are hungry to prove they are a legitimate threat for the NBA title. Even without Embiid, this team is highly talented with Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. The betting public loves the Warriors but Golden State is on a 2-10 ATS skid. The Sixers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games overall and one of those two losses came by just points. We're catching 5 here and the home dog Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset as the Warriors have lost 4 of their last 6 SU. One of those two Golden State SU wins came by just two points. Grab the generous points being offered here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-02-19 | North Carolina -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #665 Saturday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Clemson Tigers @ 6 ET - Clemson is at home here and they've gone 12-3 at home this season while North Carolina is 10-3 away from home on the season. Of course that is what is keeping this line lower than it should be. I expect the Tar Heels to blast the Tigers here. There are a number of key factors that support that theory. One of which is that UNC lost here by 4 last season. Clemson hit 15 of 30 threes in that game. That had a lot to do with it and the Tar Heels had won 10 straight over the Tigers before that game. In other words, this is a big-time payback spot. In games against the ACC teams that currently have 20 wins, North Carolina lost to Virginia but beat Duke, Virginia Tech, NC State (twice), and Florida State. Now lets talk about how Clemson has done in facing top tier teams. The Tigers did beat Virginia Tech but they have lost to Florida State (twice), Duke, Virginia, and NC State. You can easily see that when it comes time to step in big games this season the Tar Heels have risen to the occasion while the Tigers have faltered. Look for that to be the case again Saturday. UNC still has a shot to finish at the top of the ACC if they win out and, if you were worried about motivation here, the fact the Tar Heels lost here last season dismisses that notion. As for Clemson they are surely motivated too but they have proven time and time again this season they can not beat the top tier teams in the ACC. In fact, I should have mentioned the other two 18-win teams - Syracuse and Louisville. Clemson lost to both of them as well. So the over-rated Tigers are 1-7 against top ACC competition. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse and went 1-1 against Louisville. So the deserved #5 team in the nation is a combined 7-2 against top ACC competition. Considering these factors, plus revenge, plus a short number to lay here, and we've got tremendous value here with the road favorite. Clemson is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are 9-2 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-01-19 | Blazers +5 v. Raptors | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Friday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are off wins over the Celtics. Even though the Raptors have an extra day of rest here in comparison with the Blazers, the fact is that the win over Boston was a much bigger victory for Toronto than Portland. Of course that is because the Celtics are divisional rivals of the Raptors. Note that the first 12 times this season that Toronto has been off a divisional game, they've covered their next game just 3 times. That is a poor 25% ATS rate for the Raptors when off a divisional game this season and, again, that win over Boston wasn't just "any" divisional game! Some will be looking to Toronto to get revenge here too because they lost the first game at Portland this season. However, that game against Boston meant a helluva lot more to the Raptors than this game does. Also, Toronto swept the Trail Blazers last season so it is Portland that is now looking to return the favor this season. The Blazers enter this game red hot as they are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run. As for the Raptors, they had failed to cover 5 straight games before the big win over the Celtics. Look for Toronto to drop to 4-9 ATS in Friday games this season while the Blazers add to an impressive record in March games that is 25-6 SU and ATS the past two seasons! Also, the Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS (and 8-0 SU!) against Atlantic Division opponents. 10* PORTLAND |
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03-01-19 | Rhode Island v. Dayton -7 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Dayton Flyers vs Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - The earliest number on this game was a -9 yesterday. As of this morning the line is down to a -7 on Dayton. I understand what the markets are looking at here. This is a revenge spot for the Rams considering the Flyers routed them on their home floor 3 weeks ago. However, the thought that Rhode Island automatically bounces back and gets the cover here is not that well-founded. The fact is last season the Rams beat the Flyers by double digits in both games! In other words, how these games play out has a lot to do with the talent of each team each season and, this year, it is the Flyers turn to get the sweep! They lost by 25 at Rhode Island last season and also were beaten by the Rams by 14 in Dayton. Again, the same season revenge is over-played. If anything, it is the Flyers (the far superior team this season) that really has revenge here as they remember what happened on their home floor last season. Another key to the value here is Dayton is off a game against one of the Atlantic Ten's worst teams and has another weak foe on deck. In other words, the Flyers are fully focused on the Rams here. Dayton has been shooting the ball extremely well and that includes from beyond the arc particularly when on their home floor. Rhode Island is off a rare win where they shot the ball well but they faced a bad George Washington team. Prior to that victory, the Rams were held to 37.5% or less from the field in 5 straight games! RI went 0-5 SU and ATS in those games. Rhode Island is 2-9 SU and ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. The Flyers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their 8 line games against teams with a losing record this season. Home blowout on tap in this one! 10* DAYTON |
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02-28-19 | 76ers +8 v. Thunder | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - With big men Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic sidelined for this one, there has been a huge jump in the line. The very first number that was posted offshore yesterday was a 5 and now this line is up to an 8. Keep in mind, the Sixers still have ton of talent on the floor with Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. Also, Jonah Bolden and Mike Scott are capable of putting up some solid numbers with both Embiid and Marjanovic expected to be out for this game. We're getting a ton of value here with the big points being offered. The Thunder stole one from the Sixers last month in Philly and the 76ers haven't forgotten that game. The fact is that Oklahoma City has had the Sixers number in recent years but of course this season is the best 76ers team they've faced in a long time. Again, even with Embiid and Marjanovic out, I don't see this being an easy win at all for the Thunder. Philly is hell-bent on getting revenge here and Oklahoma City is on an 0-4 ATS skid as the only SU win they have during this stretch came by a single point. For those of you that like statistical odds too, the fact is that there is an interesting pattern with Philly this season. They have 39 wins on the season and, amazingly, they have had only 3 standalone wins. What I mean by that is when the Sixers are off a win that followed a loss they almost always follow it with another win. They have 14 streaks of 2 or more wins. They have had only 3 occurrences where they produced just a single win and all those were in calendar year 2018. In other words, don't be surprised if Philadelphia shocks and gets the outright upset win here but, of course, I am grabbing the points with the 76ers as added insurance! The Sixers are 36-17 ATS including 5-1 ATS (and SU!) this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Thunder are 1-9 ATS (and 3-7 SU!) when off a division game. Could be a shocker in OKC tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |