Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-25-24 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal -3.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the MONTREAL ALOUETTES for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Divisional leaders square off on Thursday with Montreal having the edge at home. Saskatchewan is 2-1 on the road with the loss coming against a very good B.C. team with the wins coming against Hamilton and Edmonton which are a combined 1-11. Montreal has a scheduling edge as it is coming off its first loss of the season, a 37-18 setback against Toronto where quarterback Cody Fajardo went down so the Alouettes completely lost their gameplan. They are coming off a bye week which gives them extra time to get their backup quarterback ready as opposed to being thrown right into action. Caleb Evans will be getting the start over Fajardo and he will face an opportunistic defense that has forced 19 turnovers including 12 interceptions which is a concern but the Roughriders have allowed the most passing yards in the league with 328.2 ypg. Shea Patterson will be making another start for Saskatchewan and he has been decent with a 2-1 record but he just two touchdowns and one interception but this will be a test. The Alouettes have the second-best turnover ratio (+6) in the league and is the best at defending the pass, allowing just 223.3 ypg. Montreal does give up the second-most rushing yards at 109.0 ypg but AJ Ouellette is out for Saskatchewan. Montreal had its 13-game winning streak snapped and will be out for some retribution and we are catching a low number to get it done. 10* (772) Montreal Alouettes |
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07-22-24 | Mets -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 112 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS RUNLINE as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. Our auto play against Miami is back in play again on Monday and not laying the big number but going with the runline. Miami has won two of the first three games in this series but the offense is still struggling as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .281 wOBA and .120 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 31 of 51 games and this includes getting shut out eight times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 7-28 while averaging 2.9 rpg with a .227 average and of those 28 losses, 24 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.4 rpg. The Mets are still two games over .500 and remain tied for the No. 3 spot in the Wild Card standings in the National League. They are also still two games over .500 on the road with the offense leading away as they are No. 4 in OPS at .760, No. 3 in OBP at .327 and No. 2 in average at .264. David Peterson has made eight starts this season and has a 3.09 ERA while allowing more than two runs only once. He has four quality outings and has allowed only four home runs total with his home and road splits being nearly identical. He has struggled with his walk rate but the Marlins are not a team that generates a lot of walks. Yonny Chirinos has a 5.76 ERA through his first five starts following a stint with the Braves last season where he had a 9.27 ERA in five starts. His xERA does come down by a run and a half but not much is expected and we should see the negative regression continue. 10* (901) New York Mets -1.5 Runs |
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07-14-24 | Marlins v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS RL for our MLB Runline Dominator. Our auto play against Miami is back in play again on Sunday and as with yesterday, not laying the big number but going with the runline. Miami has lost five straight game and despite the decent offensive effort last night, the Marlins have fallen into dead last in baseball with a .277 wOBA and .120 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 29 of 46 games and this includes getting shut out seven times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 5-28 while averaging 2.8 rpg with a .224 average and of those 28 losses, 24 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.4 rpg. The Reds have taken the first two games of this series to make it three straight wins and five victories over their last six games. Cincinnati can close out a solid run before the All Star Break and while it is in last place in the National League Central, a sweep in this series will get it to one game under .500 and it is currently only three games out of the Wild Card so it is wide open. We loved Andrew Abbott yesterday and he was far from good but the offense carried through it and we love the starter more today. Nick Lodolo came off the IL and posted an average outing against Colorado as he went only 3.2 innings while allowing four runs. He has legit stuff when healthy and this is a big start prior to the break before getting an extended time off. Trevor Rogers is making start No. 19 and he has been all over the place with a 4.82 ERA and 1.59 WHIP but he has looked better over his last six starts he just has had no backup and now faces an offense that is peaking. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Runs |
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07-13-24 | Marlins v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 135 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS RL as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. Our auto play against Miami is back in play on Saturday but not laying the big number but going with the runline. The offense came up small again on Friday with a four-run effort and the Marlins have fallen into dead last in baseball with a .276 wOBA and .118 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 29 of 45 games and this includes getting shut out seven times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 5-27 while averaging 2.6 rpg with a .222 average and of those 27 losses, 23 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.5 rpg. The Reds took the opener of this series with a 7-4 win to make it two straight wins and four victories over their last five games. Cincinnati can close out a solid run before the All Star Break and while it is in last place in the National League Central, a sweep in this series will get it to one game under .500 and it is currently only three games out of the Wild Card so it is wide open. While Miami is not only facing a lefty, it is facing one of our favorites. Andrew Abbott is having a fantastic season as he has a 3.06 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 18 starts which comes after a solid rookie campaign. He has a 3.21 xERA and is ranked in the 75th percentile in xERA, xwOBA, xOBP, Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate. His worst start of the season came against the Cardinals at home in May but we can chalk that up to an anomaly as he has bounced back with seven straight starts of allowing three runs or less. Edward Cabrera is making his seventh start of the season and just his second since May. His first one after coming back average as he allowed two runs over 3.2 innings which took him 82 pitches. Overall, he has a 6.84 ERA and facing a Reds offense that is averaging 7.6 rpg over this recent five-game stretch. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Runs |
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07-12-24 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -4.5 | Top | 37-41 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. Winnipeg picked up its first win of the season with a 25-16 win over Ottawa last week and that was with quarterback Zach Collaros being absent. The former MOP has gotten off to an awful start with a 69.5 passer rating through four starts, including no touchdown passes and four interceptions but he is going to get back into form and the time off will help. Last week, they used a strong running game led by Brady Oliveira but he is out this week so Collaros will be relied upon. The defense remains stout as the Blue Bombers are ranked No. 1 in opponent completion percentage (64.1) and second in passing yards allowed (251.0). Calgary is off to a 2-2 start including a win in this first matchup and the Stampeders are 3-1 against the number which is keeping this price down along with the Winnipeg struggles. Quarterback Jake Maier threw for 591 yards and four touchdowns to one interception in his first two games but in the last two, he has thrown for 345 with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Calgary did beat Winnipeg in Week Four but Maier averaged only 5.6 yards per pass for 239 yards and we see the struggles continue. This is definitely a statement game for Winnipeg and laying a short number gives us a bigger opportunity in a buy low situation. 10* (774) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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07-12-24 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS RL as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Colorado lost three of four in Cincinnati and has lost four of its last five games with the pitching rarely keeping the Rockies competitive as they have allowed 8.1 rpg over the five-game stretch. They are now 13-34 on the road which is the third worst road record in baseball and have another bad matchup in this opener. On the season, the Colorado starters are dead last in baseball with a 5.39 ERA with the bullpen posting a 5.91 ERA which is also worst in the bigs. The Mets are coming off a sweep over Washington which included a 7-0 win on Thursday, their first shutout of the season and last team in baseball to produce a shutout. New York is 24-10 over its last 34 games and what was thought it was going to be a lost season, the Mets could be buyers heading into the trade deadline as they are tied with San Diego for the third Wild Card spot in the National League. Sean Manaea comes in as a big favorite but the value is on the runline here as he comes in on a great run. He allowed six runs against the Phillies in early June but since then, he has posted a 1.57 ERA over his last five starts which includes a 0.90 ERA in two home starts against two much better offenses in the Padres and Yankees. Tanner Gordon is making his second Major League start following a rough outing against the Royals where he allowed five runs in 6.1 innings against the Royals. He made seven starts this season with Albuquerque, posting a 5.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 27:8 K:BB in 33.2 innings and while he catches a better ballpark, he has a tough offensive matchup. 10* (902) New York Mets -1.5 Runs |
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07-10-24 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS RL as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. Our auto play against Miami is back in play on Wednesday but not laying the big number but going with the runline. The offense came up small again on Tuesday with a three-run effort and the Marlins have fallen into dead last in baseball with a .276 wOBA and .118 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 27 of 42 games and this includes getting shut out seven times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 5-26 while averaging 2.8 rpg with a .224 average and of those 26 losses, 22 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.4 rpg. Houston snapped its two-game slide with the 4-3 win last night and it remains two games behind Seattle in the American League West. The Astros are back to six games over .500 at home thanks to seven straight wins and coming off a one run win last night, we expect a lopsided victory tonight. Framber Valdez followed up a poor outing against the Mets with a quality start at Toronto on Thursday and he returns home where he has a 3.71 ERA and this is obviously a great matchup. Bryan Hoeing is making just his second start of the season after opening in the bullpen with 11 appearances. It was a decent outing as he allowed only one run but went just three innings where he threw only 46 pitches. 10* (928) Houston Astros -1.5 Runs |
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07-06-24 | White Sox -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX RUNLINE as part of our MLB Runline Double Play. Miami is in a slump yet again as it has lost five straight games and while this could be the typical contrarian bounce back spot, this is not it. The offense came up small again on Friday with a two-run effort and the Marlins have fallen into dead last in baseball with a .276 wOBA and .118 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 26 of 39 games and this includes getting shut out seven times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 4-26 while averaging 2.7 rpg with a .224 average and of those 26 losses, 22 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.5 rpg. The White Sox find themselves in a rare spot of a road favorite and for good reason. They actually have the worse record by five games but the pitching matchup is dictating the number. Garrett Crochet has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season with a 3.02 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 16 starts and following a poor three-game run in late April, he has a 1.63 ERA over his last 12 starts to go along with an insane 101:11 K:BB ratio. He is in the top 10 percentile in nine of 14 advanced stats and is ranked No. 1 overall in WAR, K%, K/BB% and FIP. Yonny Chirinos is making just his fourth start of the season and while the first three have been decent, he has not gotten past five innings while not hitting 90 pitches. That brings into play the Marlins bullpen which has a 4.08 ERA. 10* (923) Chicago White Sox -1.5 Runs |
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07-06-24 | Giants v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS RUNLINE as part of our MLB Runline Double Play. Cleveland is coming off a 4-2 loss last night as it fell behind 3-0 after the first inning and could not get the runs across despite outhitting the Giants 11-6. The Guardians have been struggling since a seven-game winning streak as they are 3-6 over their last nine games with the offense scoring three runs or less in all six of those losses. They are still the No. ranked offense in runs scored and we are getting a great matchup with the splits with a pair of lefties squaring off. The Giants are back to a game under .500 following their second straight 4-2 win and since a five-game losing streak, they are 8-3 over their last 11 games. the pitching has been the strength as they have allowed four runs or less in nine of those games but now face an offense ready to bust out. Kyle Harrison has missed almost a month of action due to a right-ankle sprain and he is skipping a minor-league rehab assignment. He will be making his first start since June 10 and he has been decent with a 3.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIIP in 14 starts covering 77.1 innings. The Guardians are 19-6 this season against left-handed starters and their .769 OPS against lefties is No. 5 in the league. Logan Allen has been solid over his last nine starts with the exception of two outings, both on the road, one in Colorado and one in Baltimore so there is no fault in either of those. The Giants are just 10-17 against southpaw starters. 10* (926) Cleveland Guardians |
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06-30-24 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Afternoon RL Dominator. We will continue to fade the Marlins as they have scored seven runs over the last five games and are 3-30 when scoring two runs or fewer and no team is going to win more than lose with that little output, they are the extreme. Of their 26 road losses, 19 have been by two runs or more. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 23 of 34 games and this includes getting shut out now seven times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 4-25 while averaging 2.5 rpg with a .220 average and of those 25 losses, 22 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.7 rpg. The Phillies are in jeopardy of losing their first home series since the season started when they opened 2-4, dropping both series against the Braves and Reds. They are now 32-14 at home which is the best home record in baseball despite losing two of the first three here. The offense has definitely taken a hit with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber out but again, this is going against the other offense and the top four rotation in baseball puts up another potent arm today. Ranger Suarez has been the best of the top four with a 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP and he is near the top of all metric categories, sitting in the 90th percentile xwOBA, xISO, xOBP and BB%. He is No. 5 among all starters in xFIP at 2.75 and he is back home where he has allowed only two earned runs over his last four starts covering 20 innings. Yonny Chirinos has made two starts this season and they have not been horrible as he has allowed three runs over 10 innings. There is negative regression coming as last season in 20 games, he was bottom four percentile in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and K%. 10* (904) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Runs |
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06-29-24 | Winnipeg -3 v. Calgary | Top | 19-22 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. We are rolling with Winnipeg again this week as the Grey Cup favorites coming into the season are now 0-3 and a win is desperately needed. The Blue Bombers have been hurt with injuries which has limited quarterback Zach Collaros who has completed just over 61 percent of his passes while not throwing a touchdown. He has a great matchup here against a Calgary defense that has allowed 410.5 ypg and 7.8 yppl which are both dead last in the league. The Stampeders have also posted only one sack so Collaros, who has been seeing huge pressure, will finally have some time. Winnipeg is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games after getting outgained by 90 or more yards in their previous game. Calgary is 1-1 and coming off a bye but an early bye is not as big of an edge when it comes later in the season. The Stampeders lone win was against Hamilton where they were outgained 468-369 so the eight-point win was a skewed final score. They have had stability as quarterback but the results have not been there as Jake Maier will make his 30th consecutive, which is the longest by any Stampeder quarterback since 2011. However, he is just 14-18 all time when starting and this includes five losses to Winnipeg, the only team he has never beaten and while the Blue Bombers may seem vulnerable, facing a desperate team is not ideal. 10* (775) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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06-29-24 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RL as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. This may be mundane but when it works it works and until the lines start adjusting, we can take advantage. We will continue to fade the Marlins as after a couple rare games where they were able to put up runs, they have scored four runs over the last four games and are now 3-30 when scoring two runs or fewer and no team is going to win more than lose with that little output, they are the extreme. Of their 26 road losses, 19 have been by two runs or more. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 23 of 33 games and this includes getting shut out now seven times over this span. The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball as they are now last in OPS and second to last in runs scored and they are also second worst in xwOBA at .297. We were fortunate to get the runline win with an eighth inning run last night and the Phillies offense is down with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber on the IL but this starting rotation is the best in baseball and we have to take advantage of that against one of the worst offenses in the league. They continue to dominate at home and now send their fourth starter to the hill that are all legitimate No. 1s on most teams. Aaron Nola had a blowup in Boston where he allowed eight runs over 3.2 innings, his second game of allowing seven or more but he has been awesome in all others, posting a 2.32 ERA in the 14 other outings. Roddery Munoz has made seven starts with three of those being solid but he has allowed 20 runs in 18.2 innings in the other four outings and his command is not there overall with a 34:18 K:BB ratio. 10* (954) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Runs |
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06-28-24 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RL as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Philadelphia had Miami on the ropes again last night but a pair of doubles in the seventh inning did them in but we are going back again in a smash spot to get it back tonight. Philadelphia is 31-13 at home which includes a 25-6 record as a home favorite of -150 or more but we are not laying this price but instead hitting the runline again as the scoring differential in those games is 2.5 rpg. We will continue to fade the Marlins as after a couple rare games where they were able to put up runs, they have scored four runs over the last three games and are now 3-29 when scoring two runs or fewer and no team is going to win more than lose with that little output, they are the extreme. Of their 25 road losses, 18 have been by two runs or more. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 22 of 32 games and this includes getting shut out six times over this span. The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball as they are now second to last in OPS and runs scored and they are also second worst in xwOBA at .299. The bullpen could not hold and wasted another great start from Zack Wheeler and another top arm hits the hill tonight in Cristopher Sanchez. He has allowed more than three runs only twice in his 15 starts to post a 2.56 ERA and he has allowed only one home run over 84.1 innings. His ERA drops to 1.41 in eight home starts, the last seven all being quality outings. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 4-24 while averaging 2.5 rpg with a .220 average and of those 24 losses, 21 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.7 rpg. Kyle Tyler is making his second career start following a mediocre opener against Seattle and faces another tough offense even without Bryce Harper. 10* (902) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Runs |
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06-27-24 | Edmonton Elks +7.5 v. BC | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ELKS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. The Elks are off to a 0-3 start which we have been accustomed to as they have been the worst team in the CFL over the last few years with Ottawa giving them a run for that futile honor. But records can be meaningless at times if the play on the field does correlate with that. Going back to last season, Edmonton started off 0-9 which put them on a 7-34 run going back to the start of the 2021 season but the play got better as they went on a 4-1 run before dropping their final four games. While they are winless now, they should have won their opener but gave up a 21-8 fourth quarter lead and lost the last two games by a field goal including a last second one last week. The offense is clicking with quarterback McLeod Bethel Thompson who is completing 73 percent of his passes and has put up 978 yards through the air while the 67 first downs are first in the league. B.C. is 2-1 but it is a fortunate 2-1 as the defense has not been good which has been a common theme going back to last season. The passing defense has been poor, allowing a league worst 77.8 percent completion clip and also a league worst 70 first downs. The offense has been consistent scoring 26, 26 and 27 points but the Lions are not going off and quarterback Vernon Adams, Jr. is dinged up which does not bode well. Coming off a massive win over rival Winnipeg, this is a letdown spot and an inflated number. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off an upset win as an underdog. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (771) Edmonton Elks |
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06-27-24 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RL as part of our MLB Evening Double Play. We will continue to fade the Marlins as after a couple rare games where they were able to put up runs, they have scored four runs over the last three games and are now 3-29 when scoring two runs or fewer and no team is going to win more than lose with that little output, they are the extreme. Of their 25 road losses, 18 have been by two runs or more. The Phillies were able to get the series win in Detroit following a 6-2 win on Wednesday and they head home for a four-game set. Philadelphia is 31-12 at home which includes a 25-5 record as a home favorite of -150 or more but we are not laying this price but instead hitting the runline again as the scoring differential in those games is 2.6 rpg. Zack Wheeler has become the favorite to win the National League Cy Young, just ahead of teammate Ranger Suarez as he continues to dominate. He has a 2.73 ERA to go along with a 2.91 xERA and while the Phillies lost his first four games this season as they could not score, they have gone 9-3 since then with eight of those wins coming by two or more runs. We love to fade Miami against lefties but they are equally as bad facing the other side as its current roster is second to last in baseball with a .286 wOBA while being third to last with a .131 ISO. Trevor Rogers is making start No. 16 and he has been all over the place with a 4.90 ERA and 1.55 WHIP but he has looked better his last three starts but run support has not helped. Miami has scored three runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts which is a main factor the Marlins are 2-13 in those games. The Phillies are No. 6 in MLB with a .344 wOBA against left-handed pitching. 10* (954) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Runs |
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06-26-24 | Yankees -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES as part of our MLB Evening Double Play. The Yankees have hit their biggest slump of the season since an early 5-7 skid as they have gone 3-8 over their last 11 games and a win here will avoid a fourth straight series loss. The pitching has gone south over this stretch and taking the first two games away, New York has allowed 7.3 rpg over their last nine games following a 9-7 loss last night even though they tried to make things interesting late. This is a great bounce back spot with potential blowout. The Mets have been on the other end of a run as they were mired in a 12-27 stretch that began in mid-April but they have gone 14-4 over their last 18 games. The pitching has been the catalyst on a consistent basis but the offense was on display last night as they hammered Gerrit Cole in just his second start back. New York is still four games under .500 at home. Luis Gil got off to a fantastic start to the season as he had a 2.03 ERA through his first 14 starts and then he faces the Baltimore offense in his last start and the Orioles got to him for seven runs on eight hits in just 1.1 innings. The Yankees had win his previous nine outings, eight of those by two or more runs and that is where the value is in this bounce back spot. Sean Manaea has been average as his inconsistencies have hurt him overall. He has struggled at home against some of the better offenses and this is one of the better ones here will see. His 4.16 ERA is right in line with his xERA of 4.22 so what you see is what you get and that is nothing special. Manaea is 0-10 against the runline in his last 10 Interleague games. 10* (925) New York Yankees -1.5 Runs |
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06-26-24 | Marlins v. Royals -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS RL as part of our MLB Afternoon Double Play. We won with the Kansas City runline on Monday and we will go back with that this afternoon in a good Bounceback spot. The Royals offense was handcuffed last night as they scored a run in the first and that was it as they managed only four hits and wasted another strong effort from Seth Lugo. Kansas City has taken a step back as it got swept in Texas over the weekend and it has dropped 12 of its last 16 games. Most of the damage has been on the road and while the run includes a 2-5 record at home, four of the losses were against the division leading Mariners and Yankees. The Marlins have put together a decent run as they have won five of their last seven games and last night was certainly a rarity as they came in 3-28 when scoring two runs or fewer and while every team is going to below average record with that, Miami is one of the worst based on its struggles on both sides. Of their 24 road losses, 17 have been by two runs or more. Brady Singer is back to his 2022 form when he posted a 3.23 ERA across 27 games including 24 starts as he has put up a 3.29 ERA through his first 15 outings. He has made only three poor starts which have been spaced out, his latest coming against the Yankees three games back. His 15.8 percent K-BB% is second in the rotation behind Cole Ragans and he has been even better at home. The Marlins will promote Valente Bellozo from Triple-A Jacksonville to make his Major League debut. He has struggled since getting promoted to Triple-A in May, posting a 5.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with an 18:8 K:BB through 20.2 innings. 10* (920) Kansas City Royals -1.5 Runs |
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06-24-24 | Marlins v. Royals -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS RL as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. The Marlins had dropped six straight games and went on a 2-11 run but they have recovered with wins in four of their last five games yet we are fading them today. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 19 of 28 games and this includes getting shut out six times over this span. The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball as they are now second to last in OPS and runs scored and they are tied for second worst in xwOBA at .301. Kansas City has taken a step back as it got swept in Texas over the weekend and it has dropped 11 of its last 14 games. Most of the damage has been on the road and while the run includes a 1-4 record at home, the losses were against the division leading Mariners and Yankees. Cole Ragans had a pair of bad starts where he allowed seven runs in each but he has been outstanding in his other 14 starts with a 2.04 ERA over 84 innings. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 4-23 while averaging 2.7 rpg with a .224 average and of those 23 losses, 20 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.7 rpg. The Marlins turn to Roddery Munoz who is making his seventh start and it has been a mixed back. He has allowed two runs or less in three of those but allowed 16 runs in the other three starts. The big issue has been the long ball as he has allowed 11 home runs. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals -1.5 Runs |
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06-22-24 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RL as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Philadelphia has dropped two straight games and it has not been a great recent run as the Phillies are 4-7 over their last 11 games but we expect the big win today. We are not going to lay a number this big but instead play the runline in a great bounce back situation. Philadelphia still has a lead of six games in the National League East over the Braves but that has shrunk with Atlanta starting to get back into form. The Phillies are 32-9 in their last 41 games as favorites of -150 or more and while we are not laying the moneyline, those games have a scoring differential of 2.2 rpg. Arizona has gotten back to .500 following its second straight win and the Diamondbacks are 13-6 over their last 19 games to move into a tie for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They are a game under .500 on the road and while we expect starting pitching regression, the bullpen has been an issue the entire season and even more do of late with a 5.40 ERA over their last seven games. Tommy Henry is coming off a decent yet short start against the Dodgers as he went only four innings and in six starts, he is averaging just 4.2 innings. His ERA of 5.40 and WHIP of 1.62 are more in line of the pitcher he is in his six starts and those go up when adding his relief appearances while his xERA is 6.32 which is by far the worst on the staff among qualified pitchers. Zack Wheeler is the guy we are targeting here as he is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings but that was in Baltimore which came after five straight quality outings where he allowed two runs or fewer in each. He is back home where he has a 1.71 ERA and 0.87 WHIP and that ERA drops to 1.36 over his last five here. 10* (906) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Runs |
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06-21-24 | BC v. Winnipeg -2 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. Winnipeg is off to a 0-2 start as it failed to get its revenge from a Grey Cup loss against Montreal in the season opener and then was embarrassed on the road at Ottawa last week. This is now a big test to avoid the 0-3 start but we fell this is the statement game to show they are still the best team in the West Division. It really starts at the pivot with quarterback Zach Collaros who has not looked like himself and currently is ranked dead last among quarterbacks with a 56.5 overall grade according to PFF. He has yet to throw a touchdown and has been picked off three times while overall, the Blue Bombers are -4 in turnover margin. This is the first time Winnipeg is two games under .500 since July of 2016 and it has not started 0-3 since 2012. B.C. started their season with a loss to the Argonauts and got all they could handle from Calgary before pulling away in the fourth quarter last week. The Lions have crept up in the West Division to become the second best team and they obviously have a goal in mind but this is not the spot for the Lions show they can overtake Winnipeg as the top division team. 10* (790) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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06-20-24 | Royals -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS four our MLB Afternoon Runline Dominator. Kansas City has lost three straight games following a second straight loss in Oakland last night and we expect a big bounce back today before heading to Texas over the weekend. The Royals have been a below average team on the road at 16-20 but nearly half of those wins have come with Seth Lugo on the hill who is in a great spot once again. Kansas City is 8-0 against the run line in his eight starts against American League teams averaging 4.4 or fewer rpg, winning those games by an average of 5.5 rpg. He had a pair of bad starts against the Guardians and the Yankees but he bounced back with a quality start against the Dodgers to remain undefeated on the road, going 7-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Oakland has won two straight games following a nine-game losing streak and this is the first time since early May that the Athletics have won consecutive games and they are now 1-10 in their last 11 games following a victory. Mitch Spence has had a couple decent outings this season but does not go deep in games and has one of the worst K rates in the game at 28 percent which puts him in a tie for No. 265 in the league. Here, we play on favorites between +135 to -190 against the 1.5 run line with an OBP of .320 or less on the season and with an OBP of .260 or worse over its last three games going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 30-9 (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (915) Kansas City Royals -1.5 Runs |
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06-17-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston gave one away in Dallas as it dropped Game Four by 38 points and trailed at one point by 48 points so the Celtics clearly did not show up. It was expected after the Celtics built a comfortable 3-0 series lead and they head back home where they are 45-6 and will look to complete the gentleman's sweep on Monday. Dallas made more of an effort to chase Boston off the three-point line and to defend with more intensity but the effort simply was not therefor Boston so not all of the credit can be given to the Mavericks. A lack of focus has been the main reason for a lot of Boston losses this season as it can beat any team on any night by 20 points and it actually tied a record of most 30-point wins during the regular season with 10. The Celtics finished with the highest offensive rating at 122.2 of any team since 1997-98 and the highest net rating since 2000 at 11.7. The Celtics are 2-0 with a plus-33 point differential after losses in this postseason run, and both of the previous two were by double digits. In NBA history, there have only been three cases in which a team down 3-0 in the Finals forced even a Game Six, the last coming in 1996so this is where the gentleman's sweep comes into play. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (510) Boston Celtics |
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06-16-24 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton +1.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TI-CATS for our CFL Sunday Enforcer. Hamilton is coming off a season opening loss at Calgary in a balanced game on offense it should have won. The 468 total yards from Hamilton were the most of any team in the league but 10 of their first 17 points were from the kicking game as there were not a lot of clutch plays when needed. Bo Levi Mitchell has been one of the best quarterbacks in the CFL over the last few years, when healthy as he has started only 26 games over the last three seasons. Since it is early, he is in fine health and he is coming off a great opening week where he went 27-38 for 300 yards with one touchdown and one interception. On the flip side, Saskatchewan won a game it probably had no business winning as Edmonton was the better team on the field but there was no execution. The Roughriders gave up 336 passing yards to Edmonton, and while they allowed just 39 yards rushing, that was due to the effectiveness of the Elks passing game as they ran the ball only 12 times. This is right in line with they did on defense last season so we can expect Mitchell and the Ti-Cats to explode yet again in their home opener. Here, we play against road favorites off a win over a division rival, in the first month of the season. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (786) Hamilton Ti-Cats |
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06-14-24 | Celtics v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 84-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Dallas is on the brink of elimination and the numbers already say Boston will win the championship but the Mavericks have one last gasp on their home floor as this series will end up a gentlemen's sweep. They built a big lead early but were on the wrong end of a 34-point swing when Boston got up 21 points yet there was no quit as Dallas cut it to three points late in the fourth quarter when disaster struck. Luka Doncic picked up his fifth and sixth fouls on back-to-back possessions, fouling out with 4:12 left which left them for dead at that point. Questionable calls for sure but he cannot put himself and his team in that position and now the Mavericks have to make history and come back from a 3-0 deficit which is unlikely but they are not going away just yet. In what was a game of swings, Game Three came down to volume of the long ball as in the second half, the Celtics had made 16 three-pointers while Dallas had only taken 17 and the math is simple to figure out the result of that. Dallas will adjust as it has no choice. The Celtics are taking 48.8 percent of their shots from three-point range compared to 29.2 percent for Dallas so even through the percentages are pretty equal, the numbers are real. We have seen a complete line flip with Dallas which closed as a three-point favorite to now getting points in Game Four and the adjustment is series related and not game related. The Mavericks send the series back to Boston. 10* (508) Dallas Mavericks |
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06-13-24 | Winnipeg -6.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 19-23 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Winnipeg failed to get its revenge from the Grey Cup loss to Montreal as it jumped ahead 3-0 but were outscored 27-1 and the Alouettes spoiled its home opener. Last season, the Blue Bombers lost four regular season games and followed all of those up with victories by 14, 14, 45 and 10 points and we expect more of the same on Thursday. It was a sloppy game for Winnipeg as it had three turnovers and the defense was soft, missing numerous tackles and the best offense in the league last season was held to just 301 total yards. Quarterback Zach Collaros threw for just over 200 yards on 20-33 passing, did not find the end zone and was intercepted and we can expect a bounce back tonight. Ottawa was a force when it formed in 2014 and while the inaugural season resulted in a 2-16 year, the Redblacks won the East Division three of the next four years and captured the Grey Cup in 2016. It has been a quick descent as Ottawa has not won more than four games in any of the last four seasons, going 14-54, easily the worst four-year stretch in the CFL. It could be a rough start with quarterback Jeremiah Masoli still recovering from injury and Dru Brown, a former Blue Bomber, will be the starter to open the season and there is no running game to help ease him in as starter Devonte Williams is out for the season. Despite hitting the road, Winnipeg is laying nearly the same number against the worst team in the league as it did against the reining Grey Cup Champion so there is value. 10* (779) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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06-13-24 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS RL for our MLB Divisional Game of the Month. We won with the Mets on the runline last night and we are coming back with the same play as the offense is starting to find a long-term rhythm and the bullpen, which was a disaster a few weeks ago, has become a strength. Over their last 20 games in May, the Mets averaged 3.5 rpg but through the first 10 games in June, they have plated 6.2 rpg and have another great matchup tonight. David Peterson was not good last night but we are fading the Marlins offense again today. They did score four runs but going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 14 of 20 games while getting shutout four times. The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball as they are ahead of only the White Sox in OPS and runs scored and they are fourth worst in xwOBA at .301. Luis Severino was elite in his last three full seasons with the Yankees and had a tough first season with the Mets a season ago but he has turned it around and has cut his ERA by more than half, going from 6.65 in 18 starts to 3.25 in 12 starts this season. The Marlins tagged him for five runs in Mami last month so he will be out to make that one up. Roddery Munoz had a couple decent starts to open the season but he has been lit up for 10 runs in 8.2 innings in his last two outings against the Dodgers and Guardians. He has an ERA of 7.45 in two road starts where he has allowed six home runs in just 9.2 innings. Here, we play against National League road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 averaging 3.8 rpg or fewer and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or less. This situation is 37-1 (97.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) New York Mets -1.5 Runs |
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06-13-24 | Nationals v. Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 140 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Afternoon Runline Dominator. The Nationals are on a roll as they won their fifth straight game last night with a 7-5 win over Detroit which has come on the heels of a four-game losing streak. Washington has done just enough on offense to keep this run going but the pitching remains a liability as it has allowed 5.1 rpg over this nine-game stretch and the biggest liability takes the hill today. Detroit has dropped two straight games and five of its last six to fall back under .500 but it is right there in the wile open American League Wild Card. The Tigers have been pretty average in all aspects this season but this is their second game in this series against a lefty starter where they are averaging 4.8 rpg. The fact that Patrick Corbin still has a spot in this rotation, let alone any rotation, is surprising from what he has done over the last five seasons. After three straight winning seasons from 2017-2019, he has been on the wrong end since with a 28-64 record with a 5.68 ERA and this season has inflated that with his current 6.15 ERA through 13 starts. He has a strikeout rate of 13.8 percent which is second lowest in baseball. The top line numbers of Casey Mize are nothing special as he has a 4.73 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 12 starts but those are due to only two bad outings where he allowed 11 runs and those came on the road against the Yankees and Royals, ranked No. 1 and No. 7 in OPS respectively. Home teams against the 1.5 runline batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or higher over his last three starts. This situation is 61-29 (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Detroit Tigers -1.5 Runs |
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06-12-24 | Celtics v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Game of the Month. It is must win time for Dallas as it has lost the first two games of the Finals and let a good chance slip away in Game Two as the Mavericks outshot the Celtics but came up short as Kyrie Irving registered his second straight poor game as he has shot 13-37 (35.1 percent) from the floor including going from long range. Additionally, he has only two free throw attempts. We will play the due factor with him tonight as he has been held to fewer than 20 points in consecutive games only one other time the entire season. We are seeing a 9.5-point line shift from Game Two with the venue change but a lot of that is due to injury news and this is only the fourth time all season the Celtics have been underdogs, the last two resulting in blowout losses at Milwaukee, one with and one without Kristaps Porzingis. He had a special return to the floor in Game One, scoring 20 points and grabbing six boards with three blocks in 20 minutes. His Game Two was not nearly as good and just past 23 minutes, he got hurt again in what the Celtics are calling a torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon. Whatever that is, it does not sound good and he will most likely not see the floor which gives the Mavericks a chance to thrive going back to the rim which carried them in the first three rounds of the playoffs. His presence down low has affected the Dallas offense which has allowed Jrue Holiday and Derrick White to clamp down on Irving as their defense on him has been stifling and overall, the Mavericks have had no rhythm and even if Porzingis does gut it out, he will not be as effective as Dallas gets it done on their home floor. 10* (506) Dallas Mavericks |
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06-12-24 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 152 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS RL as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. We lost with the Mets last night as they allowed only five hits and of the four runs allowed, only two were earned so the pitching did its job as expected but the bats got nothing going, registering only four hits off Jesus Luzardo and unable to reach base off the bullpen over 3.1 innings. We love the bounce back opportunity tonight in a great matchup on the runline. New York came in 6-3 prior to the loss where the offense was starting to smash which we expect it to regain on Wednesday. The Marlins were on a 1-6 skid heading into Tuesday and we are fading that offense again today. They did score four runs, but again, two of those were unearned and going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 14 of 19 games while getting shutout four times. The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball as they are ahead of only the White Sox in OPS and runs scored and they are fourth worst in xwOBA at .303. David Peterson has made two starts since his return from hip surgery and while he looked good against the Dodgers, he looked better in his second start against Washington and now has a great matchup. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 3-19 while averaging 2.7 rpg with a .226 average and of those 19 losses, 16 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.4 rpg. Braxton Garrett looked to be back on track with a pair of solid starts but he regressed again, allowing five runs in 2.2 innings against Tampa Bay, the third time in five starts he has allowed five or more runs. The Mets are only 8-10 against lefty starters but they are averaging 5.0 rpg and have faced some elite starting pitching and overall they have a .745 OPS against southpaws, seventh best in baseball. 10* (902) New York Mets -1.5 Runs |
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06-10-24 | A's v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 112 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Runline Game of the Month. San Diego failed to grab the sweep on Sunday, losing 9-3 against Arizona as it fell behind 7-1 after the top of the second inning and had to chance to recover. This series came after a five-game losing streak and the Sunday defeat put the Padres back under .500. They are still in second place in the National League West but trail the Dodgers by eight games and this is a series they need to take advantage of. After taking the opener against Toronto, Oakland dropped the final two games in the series at home including a tough loss in extra innings on Sunday. They are back on the road where they are 11-21 while averaging only 3.2 rpg and hitting a mere .208 and the offense has struggled overall of late, putting up 1.7 rpg on .159 hitting over their last seven games. The Athletics are 14-45 in their last 59 games following a loss by two runs or less. Dylan Cease has been every bit as good as expected after coming over from Chicago. He has a 3.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 13 starts and his xERA drops to 3.29. He has only three below average starts where he allowed 14 runs in 16.2 innings but those were against the Phillies, Braves and Yankees so he has been dominant in his other 10 starts against non-elite offenses. Joey Estes has been up and down through five starts although he is coming off a pair of solid efforts. He has a 4.67 ERA which balloons to 6.58 on the road and while he is expected for some positive progression, this is not the matchup. Here, we play against road underdogs against the +1.5 run line after a loss by two runs or less going up against an opponent after a loss by six runs or more. This situation is 41-13 (75.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (912) San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs |
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06-09-24 | Mavs +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. As expected, this lined opened higher than Game One, which was quickly bet down, and it opened higher because of the Celtics dominance in Game One but we have seen this script before, from both sides. In the opening round, Dallas lost to the Clippers by double digits in Game One on the road only to go on and win Game Two outright. Ditto for the Western Conference Semifinals against Oklahoma City. On the other side, Boston rolled over Miami in Game One of the opening round at home and then went on to lose Game Two and then it a repeat of that against Cleveland in the Eastern conference Semifinals. Certainly, the Celtics are well aware and do not want to leave Boston all squared up and having lost home court but we see adjustments being made on the Mavericks side and the added day off only help them for Game Two. Additionally, having nine days off before the Finals hurt them more as it killed any momentum they had from the two series upsets prior to get here. One adjustment that Dallas will likely input is to make Jayson Tatum more of a scorer and while that sounds like a disaster, it actually helps the defense as they get the double team off him which will no give Boston too many open looks, which they had plenty of in Game One. One adjustment we will not see and one that should just happen is Kyrie Irving having a better game. He was absent early and never got into rhythm as he finished 6-19 from the floor including 0-5 from long range and he dished out only two assists. Get him and Luka Doncic close to a combined 60 points compared to their 42 points from Game One and Dallas can head home with a series split. 10* (503) Dallas Mavericks |
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06-09-24 | BC -5.5 v. Toronto | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the B.C. LIONS for our CFL Game of the Week. Week One concludes on Sunday with a matchup of the losers from the Division Finals. Toronto finished last season with the best record in the CFL at 16-2 but lost to eventual Grey Cup champion Montreal in the East Division Final. The Argonauts were expected to be contenders once again, and while that is still possible, they will be without reigning CFL Most Outstanding Player quarterback Chad Kelly for the first nine games of the season because of a suspension. Bryan Scott and Cameron Dukes, who took most of the preseason snaps threw only 17 passes all of last season so this is not as experienced group. Obviously, this line has been adjusted because of that but it still should not be enough. British Columbia has finished 12-6 each of the last two seasons but has been unable to get over the hump, losing to Winnipeg in the West Division Finals both times. Getting past Winnipeg will not be east but the talent remains to make another run. It starts at quarterback with Vernon Adams, Jr. who was the highest graded quarterback last season per PFF, ahead of Kelly and Blue Bombers Zach Collaros, and he likes to sling it down field. He faces a Toronto defense that was only No. 6 in yards allowed and are now without three starters from the secondary, lost a lot of depth and will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator. Toronto was perfect at home in the regular season last year but the Lions were a formidable 6-3 on the road. 10* (777) B.C. Lions |
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06-08-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES RL as part of our MLB Afternoon Triple Play. Atlanta lost Game Two of this series on Friday as the inconsistent play continues. Since late April and after a 10-1 run, he Braves are 17-20 over their last 37 games and are eight games behind the Phillies in the National League East. This is a manageable number but we are taking the value in the runline at solid plus money. Washington snapped a four-game skid with the 2-1 victory as a big underdog against Chris Sale. The National are just 11-17 at home and have averaged just 2.0 rpg over their last four home games. Mackenzie Gore takes the hill for Washington and after opening the season by allowing three runs or less in his first 11 starts, he was roughed up by the Mets, allowing six runs over 4.1 innings. Atlanta is 13-7 against left-handed starters this season, winning 12 of those games by more than one run. The most recent loss ironically came against Washington and Gore but they had Spencer Schwellenbach on the hill who has been far from decent. Charlie Morton bounced back from his worst start by shutting out Oakland over six innings. In his other previously bad start, he followed that up with four quality outings, allowing just five runs total and another similar run is expected from the veteran. 10* (903) Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs |
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06-06-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -6 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Against Miami and Cleveland, Boston came out focused and determined and it dominated both of those series openers and that is what we expect in Game One of the NBA Finals. The Celtics have not been tested in the postseason, losing only twice in 14 games and it is the Indiana series that will remind them they cannot sleepwalk because three of those wins were by five points or less and any of those could have gone the other way. Keeping home court is essential and Boston has been dominant at home where it has outscored opponents by over 14 ppg while winning 43 of 49 games at TD Garden. Dallas is 8-1 in the postseason when it shoots 49 percent or better from the floor and the two Boston losses came when the Celtics allowed that percentage or higher and their defense will be stronger with Kristaps Porzingis back from his injury. Boston had one of the Defensive Efficiency units in the league and it has slipped over the past month, sitting in the middle of the teams in the postseason. The Celtics were especially strong in the paint with their two-point defense being ranked near the top and while it regressed in May, Porzingis provides solid rim protection. Boston is better on offense with him on the floor as well even though the Celtics have shot 47 percent or better in eight of the 10 games he missed so this is an elite offense nonetheless, it is just an added weapon against a quality team. Boston easily won and covered both meetings this season and that is with Luka Doncic scoring 33 and 37 points. The Celtics will want to set the tone to open the series and while this is the toughest opponent thus far, the line is substantially lower of any home playoff game. 10* (502) Boston Celtics |
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06-06-24 | Montreal v. Winnipeg -6 | Top | 27-12 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Winnipeg has been the best team in the CFL over the last two combined seasons but all it has to show for it is two losses in the Grey Cup so this is going to be a motivated team from the start after bringing home the cup the previous two seasons. Adding to that in Week One is the fact the Blue Bombers host the team they lost to in the Grey Cup after blowing a 17-7 halftime lead. The big surprise from that game was the fact two-time Most Outstanding Player quarterback Zach Collaros was held without a touchdown and was outdueled by fellow veteran Cody Fajardo. Winnipeg has the shortest odds to win it all and we feel this is a great motivational spot as well as attacking it with a great number as they are favored by less than what they were favored by in the Grey Cup last season despite that being on a neutral field. Montreal was nothing but an average team midway through the season but caught fire at the right time as the Alouettes won their final eight games on over that span, Fajardo led the league with an 82.6 percent adjusted completion percentage. The problem heading into this season is that he lost his best receiver with Austin Mack, who led the team with 1,339 receiving yards, off to the NFL and running back William Stanback, who led the team with 985 rushing yards, off to British Columbia. The defense was the catalyst to the ending run but will have a test right out of the gate at a raucous road environment. Revenge complete. 10* (772) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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06-06-24 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS RL as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. The Dodgers have dropped the first two games of this series, a 1-0 loss on Tuesday where they allowed just a single solo home run and then 10-6 last night as they fell behind 7-0 and could not play catchup. They still have a seven-game lead in the National League West and they are 27-11 in their last 38 games against the run line after a loss by four runs or more. The Pirates have won the first two games in different fashion as the two top prospects took the hill with Jared Jones pitching a gem Tuesday and Paul Skenes putting up an average effort with the offense helping him out. The Pirates are back to being significant underdogs and we just do not see the sweep happening here. Walker Buehler has yet to find his groove coming back from Tommy John surgery but he is coming off his second quality start and his pitch count has been slowly increasing through his first five outings. The big issue has been the long ball as he has given up six home runs but Pittsburgh is not a power team as they have the seventh fewest home runs in the league. Bailey Falter has been lights out with a 3.22 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts but he has exceeded expectations and his 4.73 xERA shows negative regression upcoming. The Dodgers are 16-7 against left-handed starters this season. 10* (901) Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs |
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06-05-24 | Padres -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES RL as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Padres have fallen back to .500 with their second straight loss against the lowly Angels and they look to get out of town by avoiding a sweep. They fell to 9-13 against lefty starters after being unable to get to Patrick Sandoval but now face a bottom of the rotation righty starter. The Angels won for just the ninth time at home, which was their second straight win here, and they are now 15-34 against right-handed starters although last night was a skewed win as the winning three runs were charged to lefty Yuki Matsui as they registered only two hits in six innings off Adam Mazur. Now the challenge is even tougher tonight. Dylan Cease has been every bit as good as expected after coming over from Chicago. He has a 3.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 starts and his xERA drops to 3.22. He has only three below average starts where he allowed 14 runs in 16.2 innings but those were against the Phillies, Braves and Yankees so he has been dominant in his other nine starts against non-elite offenses. Jose Soriano has gotten off to a solid rookie season but he has been inconsistent as he has allowed four runs in half of his 10 starts and he has a horrible bullpen behind him and this has added up to the Angels going 3-7 in his 10 starts. 10* (979) San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs |
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06-02-24 | Yankees -1.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-5 | Win | 117 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES RUNLINE as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We have seen this line come down from opening with the likelihood of that knowing that Blake Snell will eventually come around but this is not the spot for that to happen. The Yankees have won four straight games and possess the best record in the American League thanks to an offense that continues to crush, leading baseball with a 122 wRC+ and a pitching staff that leads MLB with a 2.74 ERA. They benefit today from a lefty-lefty pitching matchup. The Giants have lost three straight games as the offense has been shut down, scoring only seven runs over their last four games. The offense is not very good to begin with and San Francisco has struggled against lefties, going 5-10 with only three of those losses coming by one run. The other seven were by a combined 63-15. Snell missed spring training and got a late start to the season before going on the IL. He has not gotten much better in two starts since and overall he has a 10.42 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. The Yankees are 8-6 against lefty starters and should mash again. Nestor Cortes opened the season up and down through April 25 and after allowing 14 runs in 17.2 innings in his next three starts, he has allowed two runs in 17.1 innings in his last three starts. 10* (929) New York Yankees -1.5 Runs |
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05-30-24 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 124-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Minnesota kept its season alive with a win in Dallas in Game Four and there is still a lot of work to be done. The Timberwolves have an elite defense but it has been inconsistent over the last few games but they still come in ranked No. 1 in the league in Defensive Efficiency. The results pertain to that defense as Minnesota is 1-7 when allowing 49 percent shooting or higher and 8-0 when holding the opponent to under that. Dallas has shot well in its last three road games but the Timberwolves figured things out in Game Four as they allowed the Mavericks to shoot just 42 percent from the floor. On the other side, Minnesota was awful in the first two games of the series and those made it three straight games where it shot 42.7 percent or worse but it has been able to make adjustments which has let to easier shots. The Timberwolves shot 50.6 percent in Game Three and 52.7 percent in Game Four and this is more in line with the norm because the Dallas defense can be a liability as they are No. 14 in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. The return home is big for Minnesota despite dropping the first two games here as they are 33-15 here while outscoring opponents by 8.0 ppg and the value is back on its side as the Timberwolves were favored by 6 points in Game Two. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 55-27 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (512) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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05-30-24 | Astros v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS -1.5 Runs for his MLB Runline Game of the Month. Seattle has won four straight games and we have won with the Mariners the last two nights behind a strong starter and we will back them again behind another strong starting pitcher. The Mariners are now five games over .500 while holding a 3.5-game lead over the Rangers in the American League West. Seattle is 16-8 against the run line in home games this season. The Astros had a solid run in mid-April to early-May but they have regressed of late, going 4-7 over their last 11 games. The offense has been inconsistent over this stretch which has been the case on the road all season where they are 10-17. Houston is 0-7 against the run line in road games revenging a one run loss to opponent this season. Spencer Arrighetti gets the call for Houston and is making his ninth start in his rookie season. It has not been great as he has a 6.93 ERA and 1.78 WHIP and has yet to put together a quality outing. He has a decent strikeout rate but has a 11.3 walk rate as his location has been off with a rating of 98. Logan Gilbert has a 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP thanks to a 66:19 K:BB ratio and his overall picture is even better taking away his only bad outing where he allowed eight runs in four innings at Minnesota. All four home starts have been quality outings. Here, we play on American League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 hitting .260 or better while batting .225 or worse over their last five games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.00 or worse and whose WHIP is 1.70 or worse. This situation is 48-11 (81.4 percent) since 1997 with a run differential average of 2.7 rpg. 10* (962) Seattle Mariners -1.5 Runs |
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05-28-24 | Wolves +2 v. Mavs | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We were on Minnesota in Game Three in what was another close game up until a 12-3 Dallas run to close the game to give the Mavericks a commanding 3-0 series lead. The top ranked defense in efficiency has been far from it, allowing 51 percent shooting from the floor and Game Three had them allowing a postseason tying 116 points on just 68 field goal attempts. The bigger problem has been on the other side as Dallas won the first two games by a combined four points and the last game was closer than the final score even with Anthony Edwards averaging just 22 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting and Karl-Anthony Towns putting up 15 ppg on 27.8 percent shooting. Together, they are 37-111 (33.3 percent) compared to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving going a combined 63-128 (49.2 percent) so even a slight uptick on their end could have made this a series. The Timberwolves have had the lead under five minutes in all three games but the offense has gone away late as they have a rating of 114.3 pointers per 100 possessions but that includes a number of 95.5 in the fourth quarter. It is difficult to incorporate luck into the metrics but Dallas has been on the right side of that as the Mavericks are at a 58.1 percent in Effective Field Goal Percentage compared to an xEFG of 53 percent this series. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 51-24 (68 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (507) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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05-27-24 | Celtics -7 v. Pacers | Top | 105-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston trailed by 18 midway through the third quarter and eventually closed Game Three on a 13-2 run to pull out the three-point win and take the commanding 3-0 series lead which a team has never blown in the history of the NBA postseason. Favored again on the road, the Pacers may seem like the take based on the number, venue and desperate situation but their confidence is completely shot as they know the situation and what they are up against. Road favorites in the postseason that are in a close out game are 78-36 straight up and 65-47-2 against the number since 2003 while road teams that are looking for a sweep are 50-26 straight up and 41-32-3 against the number. The Celtics had a 49 percent three-point attempt rate as 46 of 83 shots were from long range while the Pacers were at just 21 percent in the absence of Tyrese Haliburton. Boston shot only 35 percent but that attempt discrepancy made a huge difference and the Pacers likely will not force much in Game Four as they were a middle of the pack team in three-point attempts on the season. Overall, the shooting of Indiana has been off the charts as it has shot over 50 percent in all three games yet has lost all of those. Boston has not played particularly well on defense which may seem obvious from the shooting percentage allowed but it is more than that as visually, they have looked lethargic. We expect an all out effort on that side of the ball on Sunday to get this series closed out and grab as much rest as possible. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams shooting 36.5 percent or better from long range after allowing 50 percent shooting or higher in two straight games. This situation is 65-32 ATS (67 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Boston Celtics |
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05-26-24 | Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Signature Enforcer. This series has started the same for Minnesota as the last series with the road team winning the first two games only the Timberwolves are on the opposite side this time. Minnesota went into Denver and won the first two game in the Western Conference semifinals and it has gone 5-1 on the road in the postseason including the clinching Game Seven victory against the Nuggets. A quick look at the first two games of this series shows the Timberwolves defense has not been close to as good as it has been since the start of the season and surprisingly a lot of that is due to Rudy Gobert who won Defensive Player of the Year but in the first two games, the Timberwolves are allowing an absurd 145.6 points per possession with him on the floor but we see that coming back to normal as opposed to staying out there. The bigger factor has been the offense. Dallas won the first two games by a combined four points and that is with Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns going a combined 21-69 (30.4 percent) from the floor. The fact that the duo has averaged only 10.5 made field goals and the games have been as close as they have been shows that even an average effort from them gets them over the top. Towns is shooting 49 percent in the six road playoff games while Edwards is right there at 48.8 percent so we expect both to step up after doing basically nothing to start this series. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 51-23 (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (503) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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05-25-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +7.5 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. It took a quarter, but Boston finally got its wakeup call as it opened the second period of Game Two on a 17-0 run and led by double digits late in the third quarter and the entire fourth to take a 2-0 series lead. The series now shifts to Indiana with the Pacers being in a must win spot to avoid the deathlike 3-0 hole as the Conference Finals will be all but over with a loss. Something will have to give as the Pacers are 6-0 on their home floor in the postseason, winning 11 straight overall, while the Celtics are 4-0 on the road in the playoffs. While it is a must win for Indiana, we only care about the points in this one and we will gladly take the points in the home underdog role against a Boston team that has not been able to control a whole game for the most part since facing Miami in the first round. The Pacers could be without Tyrese Haliburton who left Game Two with a hamstring injury as he is questionable but this is not an end all injury. He got hurt against the Celtics back on January 8 after playing only 13 minutes and counting that game, the Pacers went 7-4 when he was out so they will be just fine. He has the ability to take over a game but he has not shown up in the postseason half the time and Indiana is 5-4 in game he has scored 20 or fewer points not counting Game Two with the early exit. This is a reason the Pacers acquired Pascal Siakam and he has been on a roll with an average of 23.8 ppg over his last five games and he has lit Boston up with 24 and 28 points as the absence of Kristaps Porzingis leaves the Celtics vulnerable. This is the game the Pacers step up and show the energy needed and even if they fall short, we expect this one to be within shouting distance. 10* (502) Indiana Pacers |
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05-24-24 | Mavs v. Wolves -5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Round 3 Game of the Year. Both road teams covered the first game of each Conference Final with Boston covering last night and we are going with the other home team in Game Two, this time to even up the series. Minnesota was in a tough spot that historically was not good for them as there have been 88 teams coming off a seven-game series and 55 times, that team lost Game One of the following series so make that 56 out of 89 now. This is a great bounce back opportunity with the Timberwolves making the necessary adjustments needed take away the dominance that the Mavericks had inside as they shot close to 60 percent with their two-point shots which was an anomaly as they were No. 22 in the league in two-point scoring in the regular season. It is a simple strategy for the Minnesota defense as in the postseason, they are 1-5 when allowing 49 percent shooting or higher and 7-0 when holding the opponent to under that. Offensively, Minnesota shot just 42.7 percent from the field, its second straight game under 43 percent, and the cause for the Game One struggles was that they put up 49 three-pointers which was over 51 percent of their total shot attempts and that ratio was the highest of any game this season and the Timberwolves are not going to go that route again as they put up 16 more attempts than what they averaged on the season where they were ranked No. 23 in three-point shots taken. This also led to getting outrebounded by nine boards which is uncharacteristic as well. Plain and simple, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (556) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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05-23-24 | Pacers v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We had Boston in Game One and while the Celtics came away with the victory, it was far from dominating and they should not be content following a huge last minute of regulation to send the game into overtime. We are catching a smaller number for Game Two and this is the statement game for Boston before heading to Indiana and avoiding any momentum shifting to the Pacers. Indiana shot lights out against New York in its Game Seven win, hitting over 67 percent from the floor, and it again had a good shooting night in Game One where it went 53-99 (53.5 percent) and that is bad news for the Pacers against this defense. The Celtics have allowed 49 percent shooting or higher three times now in the postseason and in the first two instances, they buckled down next game, allowing 41.6 percent and 42.9 percent shooting while giving up 84 and 93 points respectively in those games. As stated in the Game One analysis, one player to have a big game is Jayson Tatum who has crushed Indiana this regular season as he has scored 30 or more points in all four games against the Pacers, averaging 32.5 ppg, and he put up 36 despite an awful fourth quarter but made up for it with a clutch overtime and we expect him to again have his way. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, playing only their 2nd game in five days. This situation is 47-22 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (554) Boston Celtics |
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05-22-24 | Mavs +4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Minnesota wants to set the tone of this series as it gained home court advantage with its seven-game series win over defending champion Denver. However, the Timberwolves are in a tough spot though and while there really is not a letdown in the postseason, history shows the typical letdown following an emotional series win. There have been 88 teams coming off a seven-game series and 55 times, that team has lost Game One of the following series and we are getting value with the number with the Mavericks. Some may point to the fact that Minnesota won three of the four regular season meetings but that comes with a huge asterisk as Luka Doncic missed two of those losses while Kyrie Irving missed all three and in the one game both played, the Mavericks won with the duo combining for 69 points, 14 rebounds and 13 assists. Minnesota has a solid home court advantage as it is 33-13 at the Target Center but Dallas is no pushover on the road where it is 29-18, going 31-16 against the number in those games. Minnesota is known for its strong interior defense as it was No. 1 in the NBA in points in the paint defense since the trade deadline but No. 2 in that category was Dallas. The Mavericks are 19-8 ATS in its last 27 road games revenging a same season loss and we can cash in two scenarios here, either a Dallas outright win or a close loss and we will grab the points in this series opener. 10* (551) Dallas Mavericks |
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05-21-24 | Pacers v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 128-133 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Indiana has actual improved its offensive rating in the postseason after finishing No. 2 during the regular season but it faced two teams ranked outside the top ten in defensive efficiency and now it faces the No. 2 ranked team. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are ideal point-of-attack defenders to throw at Tyrese Haliburton, and the Celtics possess the wings to handle Pascal Siakam. The Pacers have relied on transition points all season and they have done so in the playoffs as well but the Celtics do a great job of limiting fast break opportunities where they finished fourth in points allowed in transition. Part of that is the Celtics efficient offense which obviously limits those opponent opportunities. One player to have a big game is Jayson Tatum who has crushed Indiana this season as he has scored 30 or more points in all four games against the Pacers, averaging 32.5 ppg, and will have more usage with Kristaps Porzingis still out. Boston has taken advantage of poor defenses as it is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 48 percent shooting or higher. Here, we play on home teams after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going against an opponent after scoring 130 points or more. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (550) Boston Celtics |
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05-19-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Round 2 Game of the Year. The Nuggets could not have been more embarrassed in Game six as they trailed by as many as 50 points and lost by 45 as an early 20-0 run sealed it for the Timberwolves early. Denver gets a chance for redemption on its home floor where it lost the first two games of this series but was able to pick up the first home win by any team in this series in Game Five. That was a tough situation for Minnesota and it is the same for Game Seven. Prior to Game Five, the Timberwolves have not had to fly into altitude on short rest yet and that can be a huge disadvantage as the first game here came with six days of rest. They lost that short rest travel game by 15 points and are in a similar spot. Expect Denver to do a better job on the offensive glass to get more second chance opportunities. In the regular season, the Nuggets attempted 80 or fewer shots in only three of 82 games. In the second round, they have been held to 80 or fewer shots in four of the six games which is shocking but the correlation is that they have single-digit offensive rebounds in those four games so it is a simple plan. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (540) Denver Nuggets |
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05-18-24 | Thunder +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 116-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The home team is just 2-3 in this series so the home floor has not been a huge advantage which is more surprising for Oklahoma City which came into the series 36-8 at home but has dropped two of three at home. Dallas came into the series 27-17 at home so its home court has not been as dominant anyway and the 1-1 split should not be a huge surprise and the Thunder have no issues coming away with another road win. Oklahoma City is coming off its worst defensive performance in the playoffs and it was not even close. While giving up just 104 points, the Thunder allowed Dallas to shoot 52.6 percent and that was the highest percentage allowed in their last 13 games. The Thunder offense has sputtered the last two games, shooting around 40 percent combined and the long range shooting has really tailed off. They are yet to make more than 10 three-pointers in this series after knocking down 16 of them in Game One and we feel that regression comes back to the norm in Game Six. The total has come down in every game and it is as low as 208.5 in some places and Oklahoma City is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games where the total is 200 to 209.5. Here, we play on road teams revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 132-81 ATS (62 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (531) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-17-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -6 | Top | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. New York can set up a meeting with Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals with a win while Indiana is in must win mode to extend the series and the Pacers are in a great spot to do that. They are 5-0 at home in the postseason and they have won 10 straight games at home overall. The Knicks rolled in Game Five thanks to the defense that allowed only 91 points which was a season low for the Pacers which came in averaging 117.5 ppg through the first four games of the series. Indiana is a different team on offense at home where it is averaging 124.9 ppg on 51.3 percent shooting we will certainly see a better effort in Game Five. While star Jalen Brunson went off for 44 points in Game Four, the Pacers need their star to shine as Tyrese Haliburton is coming off a poor game, scoring only 13 points while taking just 10 shots. Basically, he needs to stop being passive. Additionally, Indiana will do a better job being more aggressive as it outrebounded 53-29, including 20-5 on the offensive glass while New York had a 62-36 edge in points in the paint. Knicks forward OG Anunoby will miss his fourth straight game due to a hamstring injury sustained in Game Two. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 40-16 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (530) Indiana Pacers |
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05-16-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves -2.5 | Top | 70-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Signature Enforcer. After falling behind 2-0 in this series with a pair of home losses, Denver has taken over the series with three straight wins including the first win from a home team in Game Five. We think the second home win takes place tonight in Minnesota and the Timberwolves extend the series to a full seven games. The Nuggets offense was elite in Game Five as they attempted 47 percent of their shots at the rim and converted on 73.5 percent of those. Nikola Jokic had one of the best postseason games ever as he scored 40 points and handed out 13 assists while not committing a single turnover. Another game like that and it will be lights out for Minnesota but that will not happen. While the Denver offense has been spectacular over the last three games, Minnesota has to get its own offense going as it has been pretty bad. The Timberwolves are averaging 95.8 points per 100 possessions in the half-court over the past three games which is a 20-point disparity from the half-court offense from the Nuggets. Additionally to improving the half-court, Minnesota needs better transition as it is the far more athletic team and had only four fast break points last game. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams shooting 36.5 percent or better from long range, after two straight games allowing 50 percent shooting or higher. This situation is 64-31 ATS (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (526) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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05-15-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -4 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our Western Conf. Game of the Month. Oklahoma City was able to take Game Four on the road to even up this series and was able to regain home court advantage with pivotal Game Five on its home floor. The Thunder are 36-9 at home while outscoring opponents by 12.9 ppg which has led to a 29-16 ATS marl. The Thunder are a top-five team on offense and defense compared to Dallas, which is only a top 10 team on offense so the Mavericks have a much smaller margin for error and that is even more of a problem with Luka Doncic and his knee issue. The injury cannot be overstated. He is averaging 22 ppg in the series which is decent but he has .390/.310/.679 shooting splits and 44.8 percent Effective Field Goal Percentage which is nearly 13 percent lower than his mark during the regular season. Kyrie Irving has been inconsistent with his scoring so having to continue to rely on P.J. Washington for offense is not ideal. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (524) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-14-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. This has been a road dominated series thus far with the road team taking all four games which is a surprise for two teams that went a combined 63-19 at home during the regular season. Minnesota was not horrible on offense in Game Four as it averaged exactly 100 points per 100 possessions, but they were completely outpaced by a Denver team that scored 121.8 points per 100 possessions. This came after averaging 114.5 points per 100 possessions in Game Three so the efficiency has been back following two bad games at home. The key is to limit their turnovers and get back in transition which is where Minnesota has the athletic edge. The Timberwolves have not had to fly into altitude on short rest yet and that can be a huge disadvantage as the first game here came with six days of rest. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 54-25 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (520) Denver Nuggets |
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05-13-24 | Celtics v. Cavs +8.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston came through for us in Game Three which was a smash spot coming off that Game Two loss but we should see some come back numbers from that game. We bought on the Celtics defense and it stepped up by allowing 42.9 percent shooting which was close to 12 percent less from Game Two and while they are a top three defense in efficiency, it will not be as good here. Donovan Mitchell will be a big part here as he had big first quarter in Game Three and led the Cavaliers with 33 points but it comes down to the Cleveland defense. This is where we can see the Cleveland defense step up after allowing 51.2 percent shooting and this is a top five defense in efficiency and it comes down to the perimeter here. Boston is 4-10 ATS in the playoffs when it hits fewer than 15 three-pointers and Cleveland can hope to take that away. The Cavaliers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games and while they might not win here, we have a close game tonight. 10* (514) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-12-24 | Nuggets +3 v. Wolves | Top | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
05-11-24 | Celtics -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Cleveland was able to upset the Celtics in Boston in Game Two to even the series and take over home court. While the Cavaliers now seem to have a shot in this series now, the Celtics are in prime bounce back mode. They lost Game Two to Miami in the first round and came back and trounced the Heat in Miami by 20 points as a 9.5-point favorite. The offense had no answers for the Cleveland defense as the Celtics managed just 94 points on 41.2 percent shooting which was tied for its fifth lowest shooting percentage on the season. Boston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games after scoring 95 points or less. The Cavaliers finished with a 60-44 advantage in the paint and had a big edge from long range as well, making five more shot from behind the arc. Boston finished only 8-35 from long range which was an aberration after hitting 38.8 percent in the regular season, second best in the NBA. Cleveland shot 54.7 percent overall, its best percentage in a game since the end of March and we certainly do not see a repeat of that against the No. 3 Defensive Efficiency team in the league. Here, we play on road favorites revenging a home loss, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (507) Boston Celtics |
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05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Knicks have built a 2-0 series lead thanks to a big home court at MSG but they are in rough shape for Game Three as they hit the road. The injuries a major concern with O.G. Anunoby out and Jalen Brunson being a big question mark. Brunson will most likely go but he is far from 100 percent and can this team rely on Donte DiVincenzo to go 10-20 again? The line is telling us what to do here. Indiana had its chances to win both of the games to open this series but fell short late. Now home, the Pacers can get back into this series at least for one game and coming back to Indiana, it can ride the fact they have shot over 51 percent in the first two games so the confidence is there. The Pacers are 29-11 against the number following a cover loss. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams shooting 36.5 percent or better from long range, after two straight games allowing 50 percent shooting or higher. This situation is 62-29 ATS (68. Percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Indiana Pacers |
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05-09-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Oklahoma City rolled in Game One and that was a fun team to watch as they were all over the floor on both sides and we should not see anything different in Game Two. Typically, going with the team being dominated is the way to go, but Dallas just is not the same team it was following a 16-2 run despite opening the playoffs with an easy series win against the Clippers. The Thunder are a top-five team on offense and defense compared to Dallas, which is only a top 10 team on offense so the Mavericks have a much smaller margin for error and that is even more of a problem with Luka Doncic and his knee issue. He has had it going on for a while and he irritated it more early in the opener and his shooting is totally affected because of it. He is making only 39.5 percent of his shots including 22.7 percent from long range and with a balky knee against one of the best defensive teams in the league, he will not have much room for improvement. The Thunder are 36-8 at home while outscoring opponents by 13.3 ppg and the deep and healthy roster will take them to Dallas with a 2-0 advantage. 10* (566) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-08-24 | Pacers +4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 121-130 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Indiana will come into Game Two with a chip on its shoulder after some questionable late calls going against them in Game One and them speaking about it publicly. The Pacers have relied on scoring all season and they are averaging 113.6 ppg in the postseason. Indiana is only turning the ball over 9.6 times per game which is the least of all playoff teams but the one factor that has hurt is that the Pacers are shooting just 72.2 percent from the free throw line in the postseason which is a huge drop-off from its 78.2 percent slip during the regular season but we will see the playoff percentage get better. Indiana is 17-8 ATS revenging a same season loss this season. The Knicks got the calls but it cannot be understated how much Jalen Brunson has meant to this team as he has scored 39 or more points in five straight games and he shot a playoff high 53.8 percent in Game One so we should see some regression. In four meetings, the Knicks have a pair of four-point wins and a pair of losses against the Pacers so we can expect to see another one to two possession game either way. Here, we play against home favorites after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games going up against an opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 89-57 ATS (61 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (561) Indiana Pacers |
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05-07-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Dallas is coming off a series win over the Clippers but benefited from Los Angeles being banged up and shorthanded. Dallas did have an unfortunate break as Maxi Kleber dislocated his shoulder, making him inactive and unlikely to return from the injured list during this series or for the rest of the postseason. His defensive IQ played a big role against the Clippers and his presence will be sorely missed. The Mavericks lost three of the four regular season meetings although two of those were with no Luka Doncic and one without Kyrie Irving. It is still hard to look past Oklahoma City in the series opener after taking out New Orleans in four games. The defense was outstanding as the Thunder allowed 92 or fewer points in all four of those games. The are 35-8 at home while outscoring opponents by 13.2 ppg. Oklahoma City has a significant rest advantage and the Thunder have won each of their last 14 home games when playing with a rest advantage. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four of their last five games against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (558) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-06-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 106-80 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Denver came up small at home in Game One as Anthony Edwards broke a franchise playoff record with 43 points but it was the other side that was the real difference. The Nuggets were held to an offensive rating of 109 and they grabbed only four offensive rebounds in the game. That offensive rebounding output was their worst rebounding game in a year and a half. As elite as Edwards has become, we cannot see him repeating his 17-29 shooting effort as an adjustment will be made with Christian Braun likely seeing more defending time. Denver lost the home floor edge so that is the big urgency to get it back with the Nuggets being 36-9 here. One thing we thought we would see is better is three-point shooting as the Nuggets disposed of the Lakers despite shooting just 31.4 percent from behind the arc after being a top ten team from three entering the postseason. They followed that up with a 42 percent effort in Game One but overall, they took only 75 shots. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the 2nd game of a playoff series. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (554) Denver Nuggets |
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05-04-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Both Minnesota and Denver are coming off easy first round series wins and now they square off after a regular season series split. Three of the four games were not really that close with the only one possession game being a Denver win at Minnesota. Majority money has come in on the Timberwolves for the series, and they seem to be the sleeper but this is practically the same roster the Nuggets disposed of in five games last season. Denver has the home floor edge and that is big for the first game especially with the Nuggets being 36-8 here. They disposed of the Lakers despite big early deficits and one thing we should see going forward is better long range shooting. They shot just 31.4 percent from behind the arc despite being a top ten team from three entering the postseason. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (530) Denver Nuggets |
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05-03-24 | Clippers +8 v. Mavs | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Clippers are coming off a 30-point loss in Game Five and we are seeing a huge line shift going into Game Six. Dallas was favored by 4.5 and 6.5 points in its first two home games and are now seeing another increase. With no Kawhi Leonard, it is up to the stars James Harden and Paul George. Both have been inconsistent in the series, but dominant in their victories. Harden is averaging 30.5 ppg in Clippers wins compared to 16.7 ppg in Dallas wins while George is averaging 27.5 ppg in their wins and 14.7 ppg in their losses. It is all about the defense as well as the Mavericks have improved their shooting percentage in all five games, hitting a series high 54 percent in Game Five. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a scoring differential between +/- 3 ppg, after scoring 120 points or more. This situation is 107-55 ATS (66 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (527) Los Angeles Clippers |
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05-02-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -3 | Top | 118-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Sixers are coming off a great effort in New York in overtime to keep their season alive and are now back home to try and force a Game Seven. The Knicks were 28.9 seconds away from closing out the series after building a 96-90 lead but could not close and momentum has shifted. Tyrese Maxey scored 46 points which came after a 50-point effort from Joel Embiid so these two superstars certainly are one of the best one-two duos in the league. Philadelphia is 27-17 at home including a 25-10 record as a home favorite, going 22-13 against the number. The Knicks got another big game from Jalen Brunson no one else has had a major contribution and it has now been three straight games of that as they have had one player put up 20 points just one time over this stretch. New York has killed it this season when favored on the road but is only 8-16 as an underdog. 10* (512) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-01-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 123-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. This has been one of the better series of the postseason as the Clippers were able to tie it up at 2-2 with a five-point win in Game Four. Now the Mavericks are favorites again on the road which is a contrarian spot. They allowed the second highest shooting percentage over their last 22 games, giving up 53.7 percent and they are in a great spot. Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite this season. Obviously, the big storyline is Kawhi Leonard who has been ruled out again and it’s a weird dichotomy. The Clippers are 2-0 without him in this series and 0-2 with him. Still, the books think that the Mavericks are the better team, even on the road with the Clippers taking back home court. Here, we play on road favorites revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off a upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-30-24 | Magic v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. For a series that is tied 2-2, it has not been a great watch with all four games resulting in blowouts by the home team, the latest being a 23-points win by Orlando on Saturday. The Cavaliers are back home where they look to break 100 points for the first time in this series and as mentioned, their defense has been getting the pub with the offense being the problem. Pace has played a big part and the good news is that they are coming off a 47.2 percent performance which is the best in the series but Cleveland put up only 72 shots, it fewest since March 24, a span of 16 games. The home floor has been good at 27-15 which includes a 24-9 record as a favorite. As far as the line goes, the last two losses has given Cleveland value as it is a point less favorite than it was in Game One and Game Two. The spot is good for the Cavaliers which have been great in bounce backs, going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a double-digit road loss. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, playing a winning team. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (570) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-29-24 | Celtics v. Heat +10.5 | Top | 102-88 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Miami was able to steal the home court advantage with a win in Boston in Game Two but gave it back with a 20-point loss in Game Three. This is where the value comes in as the line has gone up a point from the close of the last game with Miami in a spot where it can get back into the series although we are more into it being a closer game. The Heat injuries are apparent but like most other teams that are without their stars, it is time to step up for the remainder of the roster. This is the ultimate contrarian play with Miami being 0-11 as a home underdog this season while covering only one of those games and that is again where the value comes into play. Here, we play against road favorites of 10 or more points outscoring their opponents by nine or more ppg going up against an opponent after scoring 90 points or less. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (558) Miami Heat |
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04-28-24 | Wolves v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 122-116 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our NBA Round 1 Game of the Year. We won with the Lakers in a similar situation last night and while this series is all but done, pride is on the line tonight. Winning a game to extend your season and not take the sweep in front of your home crowd is a big motivational factor as we saw with the veterans last night in Los Angeles. While the offense is always there to go off, the defense has to be better here with KAT, Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards having their way in Game Three with a combined 73 points on 53.2 percent shooting. The Suns are up against the wall in what has been one of the most disappointing seasons with one of the best rosters coming in and not even competing for one of the top spots in the Western Conference. What happened has been injuries throughout the season and not being able to build any sort of chemistry. What we do have is the biggest line adjustment so far in the postseason without injuries being taken into account as the Suns closed as 5.5-point favorites in Game Three and are now underdogs two nights later. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points going up against an opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 89-49 ATS (64.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (556) Phoenix Suns |
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04-28-24 | Bucks +9.5 v. Pacers | Top | 113-126 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Indiana has a chance to put this series heavily in its favor after losing the opener and winning the last two games including an overtime win in Game Three. The Pacers are now in a spot going up against a Bucks team without their two top players and the line is reflecting that but their top line against even a depleted roster does not warrant them close to a double-digit favorite. Indiana remains home where it is 27-15 which includes a 20-11 record when favored but they are just 15-15-1 against the number. The season is basically on the line for the Bucks tonight and without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard puts them in a tough situation but this is where we take the value. Those two can take over a game late but the other seven top rotation players are all veterans who can pick this team up and keep it close which is what we all care about here. The Bucks can easily cash it is but these are professionals and there is a disrespect that will come into play. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a home win by three points or less. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (553) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-27-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. This series is all but over but we are banking on the Lakers not going away without a fight. No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit and we are not expecting that here but we are expecting the series to back to Denver or in the worst case, this being a one possession game. The Lakers closed as 1.5-point favorites in Game Three and come into Game Four as 3.5-point underdogs and this is just too much of an adjustment. Game Three was the same story as Los Angeles built an early lead only to see it go away and entering the fourth quarter, the Lakers were just 1-14 from three-point range so a couple more of those going in and it could have been a different outcome. One thing we will see is a big game from LeBron James who has played in 54 playoff series over 17 postseasons and this will be the fifth time he has faced a 3-0 deficit and in the previous four Game Fours, he has averaged 29.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg and 9.5 apg. And it will be up to the role players to show up which they have not thus far, especially in Game Three with the team shooting 30 percent when taking away James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves. Here, we play on teams revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 166-104 ATS (61.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (548) Los Angeles Lakers |
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04-27-24 | Cavs v. Magic -2 | Top | 89-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on ORLANDO MAGIC for our NBA Afternoon Dominator. It was a Game Three disaster for Cleveland which lost every quarter and eventually took a 38-point loss which was the worst in franchise playoff history. The money will be flying in on the Cavaliers for a Game Four bounce back which the linemakers expect and the line has been adjusted because of that as the zig zag theorists will be going that way. We like that angle in some occasions but not here. The story in the first two games was the Cleveland defense but that did not show up in Game Three as it allowed 121 points on 51.1 percent shooting but the actuality of it is, the Cavaliers offense has been bad. They have shot 41.6 percent from the floor and have yet to crack 100 points and while the Cleveland defense gets all of the accolades, the Orlando defense is better as it ranked No. 2 in defensive efficiency, No. 3 in turnovers gained and it is top 7 in all rebounding categories. The Magic had no offense and never even had a lead in Cleveland and while the Cavaliers defense gets credit, Orlando did not shoot well as it has missed wide open looks but the return home cured that. After the Thursday win, the Magic are 30-11 at home where they shoot 48.9 percent. Here, we play on home favorites after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (542) Orlando Magic |
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | Top | 126-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Suns are up against the wall in what has been one of the most disappointing seasons with one of the best rosters coming in and not even competing for one of the top spots in the Western Conference. Phoenix does look left for dead after falling behind 0-2 in this series and being dominated twice and while only 8.6 percent of the 313 times that teams were down 0-2 and came back to win, 22 of the 27 times it was the road team that came back including six times the last three years. This is not a series bet but just a Game Three bet for a chance and we expect this team to get up off the mat and come to life. Minnesota has been dominant at home as it went to 32-11 following the first two wins in this series but the Timberwolves have not been the same team on the road where they are 26-15. That is certainly still good but it has been situationally dependent where it is 16-5 as a favorite. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, playing a winning team. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (538) Phoenix Suns |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Divisional Game of the Month. The Sixers have fallen down 2-0 in this series following a brutal defeat in Game Two where they blew a five-point lead with 47 seconds left and were outscored 8-0 the rest of the way. The final 30 seconds were filled with controversy with missed fouls and missed time outs for Philadelphia and the NBA has actually come forward with the mishaps. The Sixers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and this is obviously a must win and there will be a message sent in Game Three. Tyrese Maxey was incredible despite playing with the flu and it will be up to him and Joel Embiid, who has been hobbling around with the knee issue, to again pick this team up which we fully expect at home. The Knicks have won five of the six meetings in this season series including a pair of blowouts in Philadelphia in January and February which is surprising without a huge matchup advantage. Philadelphia is 24-9 as a home favorite this season and laying a good number in this one. Here, we play against road underdogs off three or more consecutive home wins, playing five or less games in 14 days. This situation is 40-16 (71.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (528) Philadelphia 76ers |
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04-25-24 | Cavs v. Magic -1.5 | Top | 83-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Cleveland took advantage of its home floor with a pair of nearly identical wins as its top rated defense locked down and allowed 83 and 86 points on 32.6 percent and 36.2 percent shooting respectively. What is not being said much is the fact the Cavaliers offense was not very good as they did not get over 97 points and shot 44 percent or less in both games. Cleveland is a solid 23-19 on the road but now goes to an environment with its first home playoff game since April of 2019. The Magic have had no offense and never even had a lead in Cleveland and while the Cavaliers defense has been the catalyst, Orlando has not shot well as it has missed wide open looks but the return home will cure that. The Magic are 29-11 at home where they shoot 48.8 percent and they are not dead yet in this series despite only 8.6 percent of the 313 times that teams were down 0-2 and came back to win but in 22 of the 27 times it was the road team that came back including six times the last three years. Here, we play on home favorites after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (526) Orlando Magic |
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04-24-24 | Pelicans v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Oklahoma St. took Game One as it started to pull away late, stretching the lead to 10 points, their largest advantage of the game, early in the fourth quarter but New Orleans bounced back and actually took a lead with under two minutes left. It was a tough loss for the Pelicans and they will have a tough time playing with the same road energy, especially once again being without Zion Williamson. They have been really good on the road with a 28-15 record but that includes just a 10-10 record against current playoff teams. The Thunder meanwhile improved to 34-8 at home and that includes a 30-5 record when favored. By not covering the first game, we are catching a little value with a shorter line which is always good but we are expecting Oklahoma City to win this one going away as we are already seeing an overall disturbing trend similar to last season with playoff blowouts. Oklahoma City is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 games after allowing 100 points or less. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the 2nd game of a playoff series. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (520) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-23-24 | Mavs -2 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Home teams are now 11-0 in the postseason following a 3-0 Monday yet numbers have not changed or reflected that and this is one road team we will back to get into the win column. Following a loss in Game One where they never led and trailed by as many as 29 points, the Mavericks have now dropped three straight games but prior to this, they were on a roll. They were 16-2 in their previous 18 games and have one of the better matchups of all teams with the road disadvantage. While they have been good at home, they are 25-17 on the road and Dallas has been writing money in these spots, going 20-6 straight up and 19-5 against the number as road favorites despite the loss on Sunday. The Clippers lost their final three games of the regular season before taking Game One thanks to a sparkling defensive effort as they allowed only 30 first half points and that certainly will not happen again. Kawhi Leonard was questionable for Game One, did not play, and is now deemed out until early May. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off two or more consecutive road losses, playing 6 or less games in 14 days. This situation is 89-43 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (513) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-22-24 | Magic +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Home teams went 8-0 straight up in the first weekend for the first time since the 2013 playoffs while going 7-1 against the number. Taking into account in the NBA Play-In Tournament games, home teams went 13-1 straight up and 11-3 ATS so it has been host dominant but this will start to balance out. In the three previous seasons where the home teams went 6-2 ATS or better in Game One, Game Two saw a dead even ATS mark of 12-12 ATS. The one road team Monday that looks to bounce back is Orlando as it is coming off an awful game where the offense managed only 83 points on 32.6 percent shooting, its worst performance on that end of the floor, its worst shooting performance on the entire season. Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NBA overall but it struggled down the stretch as the Cavaliers allowed 48 percent or higher in 10 of its last 12 regular season games. It was a 2-2 season series split during the regular season and Orlando has gone 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost four of its last five games while Cleveland is 15-23-1 ATS this season following a cover. Here, we play on teams after having lost five or six of their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 128-81 ATS (61.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (501) Orlando Magic |
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04-21-24 | Pacers v. Bucks +1.5 | Top | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Divisional Game of the Month. Milwaukee limps into the postseason on a 3-8 slide and will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo for the majority of this series at a minimum. The Bucks skid knocked them down into the No. 3 slot in the Eastern Conference but they were able to avoid falling into No. 4 which means avoiding Boston until the conference finals should they get that far but opening round Game One is the big one and this line is overadjusted because of Giannis being out. His absence is huge for sure but this roster has the talent to make up for it in this key spot. Indiana rolled Atlanta in its final regular season game and was able to grab the No. 6 seed based off a three-way tiebreaker which probably gave it the best matchup of the No. 5 and No. 7 teams that finished with the same record. The Pacers are average on the road and have lost to teams with significantly worse rosters than what they are facing tonight. Here, we play on underdogs after a loss by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after two straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more. This situation is 81-41 ATS (66.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (587) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-21-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Afternoon Dominator. Dallas enters the postseason off a pair of losses which denied it a chance at home court advantage in the first round but it was without both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving for both of those games and coming into those games, the Mavericks were on a roll. They were 16-2 in their previous 18 games and have one of the better matchups of all teams with the road disadvantage. While they have been good at home, they have an identical 25-16 record on the road and Dallas has been writing money in these spots, going 20-4 straight up and 19-5 against the number as road favorites. The Clippers lost their final three games of the regular season and come in with very little momentum with a 14-13 record over their last 27 games. The status of Kawhi Leonard is still in doubt after he missed the final eight games of the regular season as he comes into the first round Game One as questionable. He has participated in film sessions but he has not been able to have any contact on the court and it is unlikely the Clippers will put him on the floor. Here, we play on teams shooting 48 percent or better on the season after a game allowing 55 percent shooting or higher. This situation is 141-91 ATS (60.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (587) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-20-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Lakers are coming off a road win at New Orleans to grab the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference and they remain on the road to open the postseason in one of the toughest environments in the league. Los Angeles is still one game under .500 on the road following the recent win and the Lakers are 6-16 ATS in their last 21 games coming off an upset win as a road underdog. Denver begins its defense of its NBA Championship and the Nuggets have been on a roll following a rough start in November and December. They missed out on the No. 1 seed because of the tiebreaker as they finished in a tie for the second best record in the NBA. Home court has been solid again this year as they are 33-8 at home which includes a 12-point win over the Lakers in the lone home meeting and going back, Denver has won eight straight meetings that included a four-game sweep in the playoffs last season. Here, we play against underdogs off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (576) Denver Nuggets |
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04-19-24 | Bulls v. Heat -1.5 | Top | 91-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT NBA Signature Enforcer. Miami is coming off a tough loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday by a point and heads home in a spot to make the actual playoffs with the big news that Jimmy Butler is declared out along with Terry Rozier. The Heat are 12-6 in their last 18 games and are still favored despite the depleted lineup which has put money on the other side. Miami is 0-10 as a home underdog but is 22-9 as a home favorite and a short number makes that more accessible. Chicago rolled over Atlanta at home on Wednesday behind 42 points from Coby White and hits the road where it is 19-22 on the season. This is another team where the home/road dichotomy situation is apparent with the Bulls being 9-2 ad road favorites but just 10-20 as road underdogs. Butler is out and this is where the rest of the team steps up. Here, we play on home teams after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 130 points or more. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (560) Miami Heat |
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04-18-24 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Thursday Runline Dominator. Of the 10 Tampa Bay 10 wins this season, it has covered the run line in eight of those and after the outright loss on Wednesday, the Rays have dropped three straight against the run line which presents a great opportunity today to have a margin win. Tampa Bay was unable to hold onto the lead on Wednesday as it gave up a pair of ninth innings run to fall to 10-9 overall and 6-7 at home but the series finale presents a great spot for the offense. Griffin Canning has gotten off to a poor start with a 9.88 ERA and 1.83 WHIP through his first three outings as he has allowed at least four earned runs in each of those starts while giving up five home runs in the process. The Angels have lost his last nine starts going back to last season, seven of which have been by more than one run. Ryan Pepiot has been hit hard in two of his three starts and ironically, his best outing was in Colorado where he did not allow a run over six innings. He has been a victim overall where he has allowed 10 runs but only 12 hits and five walks covering 16.2 innings for a 1.02 WHIP. 10* (956) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Runs |
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04-17-24 | Heat +5 v. 76ers | Top | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Miami closed the regular season with a pair of wins and it closed the season strong by going 11-6 over its last 17 games. This includes a 6-2 record on the road where the Heats have been great all season with a 24-17 record. They have struggled as underdogs but most of that damage was at home where they are 0-10 when getting points. Miami and Philadelphia split the season series while losing the last meeting at home earlier this month and the Heat are 7-0 ATS in road games revenging a home loss this season. The Sixers have caught fire at the right time as they have won eight straight games including all five since Joel Embiid returned from his knee injury. Additionally, Philadelphia has covered 10 straight games so there is now value on the other side with these teams separated by just one game overall. Philadelphia has been dominant at home this season especially with a healthy Embiid but this line is priced to high based on the recent run. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a win against a division rival. This situation is 41-18 ATS (69.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (551) Miami Heat |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans -1 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS PELICANS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The regular season did not end the way the Pelicans wanted as they had a four-game winning streak heading into their game against Lakers while welcoming Brandon Ingram back into the lineup but fall flat at home while trying to lock up a No. 6 seed and avoid the play-in. New Orleans still gets to play host with the winner grabbing the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference while the loser hosting another play-in game against the winner of a matchup between the Kings and Warriors. New Orleans is 20-12 both straight up and against the number following a loss. Los Angeles is still two games under .500 on the road following the recent win and finds itself in a tough spot. The Lakers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games coming off an upset win as a road underdog. Here, we play on favorites revenging a home loss, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (542) New Orleans Pelicans |
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04-14-24 | Bulls +15 v. Knicks | Top | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BULLS for our NBA Afternoon Dominator. The final day of the regular season will present many scenarios for different seedings up for grabs and lines are overadjusted with this being one of those. The Knicks have secured no worse than the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference and remain alive to pass Milwaukee for the No. 2 seed if they win here and the Bucks lose to Orlando with both being very much possible. But this number is taking that into consideration as a normal price is having the Knicks favored by only eight points. Meanwhile Chicago has nothing to play for as it is locked into the No. 9 seed in the conference and playing a road game for its play in game. While there is no chance to move up or down, the Bulls would like to keep the momentum going after having won their last two games and going into the postseason with positive confidence. Chicago is 27-15 ATS in its last 42 games revenging a loss of 10 points. Here, we play against home favorites of 10 or more points after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games going up against an opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (507) Chicago Bulls |
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04-12-24 | Suns v. Kings +5.5 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS for our NBA Divisional Game of the Year. Sacramento came up small for us last night in a 12-point home loss against New Orleans but we are going back with the Kings which are still in good shape while now catching a big number at home. There is currently a three-way tie at the bottom of the Western Conference with the Kings, Warriors and the Lakers all 45-35. The Kings hold the tiebreaker over both, so they currently sit eighth despite the loss against New Orleans last night. They close with Portland on Sunday so a win here likely guarantees a home game for the play in. Phoenix got its revenge against the Clippers on Wednesday in a 16-point road win but it did not get help last night with the Pelicans win as it is now a game behind them in the No. 7 spot. Phoenix can avoid the play-in entirely by going 2-0 over its final two games but it needs the help of at least one New Orleans loss as well so there is plenty to play for but laying this road number is too excessive. Here, we play on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing six or more games in 10 days. This situation is 70-33 ATS (68 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (584) Sacramento Kings |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans v. Kings -1 | Top | 135-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Despite coming off a pair of wins, New Orleans has been eliminated from a home court advantage possibility as it is 3.5 games out of the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference with three games remaining. The Pelicans can still move down but there is no advantage of facing No. 2 or No. 3 so falling from No. 6 to No. 7 is huge disadvantage. Facing the Kings with the Warriors and Lakers on deck to close the season is a tough spot with literally nothing to play for. This season, the Pelicans are 1-15 ATS coming off a double-digit road win. The Kings meanwhile do have something to play for as they are currently in the No. 8 spot in the conference which is good enough to host a play in game but they are only a half-game ahead of the Lakers to fall out of that and while they have not been the greatest home team this season, an elimination game on the road is something they do not want. This is the first of three home games to close the season and Sacramento is coming off a 1-3 roadtrip with the last game being a non-cover at Oklahoma City and it is 24-13 against the number this season following an ATS loss. 10* (552) Sacramento Kings |
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04-10-24 | Suns -3 v. Clippers | Top | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS as part of our NBA Wednesday Triple Play. Here, we have another road team where the line is defining the story. Phoenix is coming off a loss at home against the Clippers last night and are now in Los Angeles for a rematch and come in as the favorite. The Suns have been eliminated from having home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs but they are not safe as they are in the play in group where they will host a game more than likely but still have a chance to avoid that elimination game as they are just one game behind New Orleans. Los Angeles is two games clear of Dallas for the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference as it has won four straight games with this being the first of a season closing three-game homestand. Kawhi Leonard was out last night so it was a bad loss for the Suns in that regard and he will be out again tonight. The Clippers are 7-18 ATS this season coming off a road win while Phoenix is 14-4 in its last 18 games after scoring less than 100 points. Here, we play on road favorites revenging a home loss, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (543) Phoenix Suns |
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04-10-24 | Magic v. Bucks | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC as part of our NBA Wednesday Triple Play. Orlando is coming off a bad loss in Houston last night, against a Rockets team that was just eliminated from playoff contention and had nothing to play for, and the Magic slipped to No. 4 in the Eastern Conference but still hold tiebreaker over No. 5 Cleveland based on winning their division. Many will question this line as Orlando is currently a slight road favorite but that line is telling us exactly what this situation is and the public will be all over the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a much needed win over Boston last night which snapped a four-game losing streak. The Bucks are still one game ahead of the Knicks for the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference so all remaining games will be big but health is the now more important issue. Giannis Antetokounmpo was a little hobbled coming into last night but he had to leave the game with a leg injury and he is again listed as questionable and it is highly unlikely he is going to take the floor tonight and that is what this line is saying. Here, we play on teams revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This situation is 81-41 ATS (66.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (539) Orlando Magic |
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04-10-24 | Mavs -4.5 v. Heat | Top | 111-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS as part of our NBA Wednesday Triple Play. Dallas has peaked at the right time as following a 26-point win over Charlotte last night, it has won four straight games and is 15-2 over its last 17 games. With four games left, the Mavericks are in the No. 5 spot in the Western Conference, two games behind the Clippers so there is still a possibility of moving up. Dallas is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days this season while going 12-3 ATS after a win by 15 points or more. Miami lost a tough game at Indiana on Sunday but bounced back with a win at Atlanta last night in double overtime. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro all logged at least 44 minutes so this is a much more tired team coming into this back-to-back spot. The Heat are guaranteed a home game in a play in situation but can still avoid that as they are a game and a half behind Indiana for the No. 6 spot. Miami is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less this season. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road win against a division rival, playing their 3rd game in four days. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (535) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-09-24 | Celtics v. Bucks +2.5 | Top | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our Eastern Conf. Game of the Month. Milwaukee has now lost four straight games and even with just four games remaining, the Bucks are in jeopardy of falling out of the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference and they are just a game and a half out of fifth place. The good news is they control their own destiny as they hold the tiebreaker over New York and Cleveland and can win the season series with Orlando. They got Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup together and while the latter is questionable, he will likely be able to go again. Boston has won five straight games and has already clinched the best record in the NBA so health is the biggest factor as it closes out the regular season. Jayson Tatum missed the last game and is probable tonight but we are likely not going to see the starters play big minutes. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after having lost five or six of their last seven games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (508) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-08-24 | Purdue +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our National Championship Crusher. The chalk again came through in the Final Four as the favorites have had the biggest NCAA Tournament of all time and after Saturday, the public has cleaned up as in the NCAA Tournament this season, favorites of eight points or more are 20-5 (80 percent) against the number. This number has not reached that yet but it is close and this is the contrarian move to close the season with nearly 80 percent of the money on the Huskies which are now 11-0 ATS over the last two NCAA Tournaments. Connecticut is an absurd +125 in scoring differential in this tournament but Purdue is not far behind as it is +98 and this is the first time since 1960 that the National Title game has featured two teams that have outscored their opponents by 19 ppg or more. These teams are on more of a level field than what this line is saying with the Boilermakers coming in 31-4 in non-Quad 4 games and the Huskies 27-3. This is a rare spot for Purdue which has not been an underdog of more than six points since 2021. With the run the Huskies are on, the number is certainly inflated and this is the highest spread of No. 1 seeds facing each other since 1999 so taking everything into account, this is a number play backing a Purdue team that is narrowly behind Connecticut in the NET rankings and has a better Q score. 10* (675) Purdue Boilermakers |
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04-07-24 | Knicks v. Bucks -4 | Top | 122-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS as part of our NBA Sunday Triple Play. Milwaukee is in an absolute funk right now as it has lost three straight games and they were not just any losses as they were against the Wizards, Grizzlies and the Raptors which are three of the six lowest rated teams in the league and all three were as favorites of 12 points or more. They got Damian Lillard back after missing the previous three games but the Bucks were without Giannis Antetokounmpo in their last loss against Toronto but both will be back in the lineup tonight in what has become a must win. Milwaukee did get a break last night with the Cavaliers loss and are now a game and a half ahead of Cleveland with three of its last five games coming against pursuers New York and Orlando with the other two against the Celtics and Thunder. At 29-9 at home, the Bucks have to take this one. The Knicks are coming odd a bad loss as well as they fell to the Bulls to open their four-game roadtrip and they are tied with the Magic for the No. 4 spot in the Eastern Conference. They could not catch a title contender at the wrong time however and they have been average on the road at 20-18 while going 9-12 as underdogs. Here, we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after having lost five or six of their last seven games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (580) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-07-24 | Bulls v. Magic -7.5 | Top | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC as part of our NBA Sunday Triple Play. Orlando had been on a 10-2 run but lost three straight games before coming back to win three consecutive games. that was a much needed run but the Magic followed that up with a horrible loss at Charlotte on Friday to remain in a tie with New York for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. The Magic are 27-11 at home while covering 25 of those and come in part of a great situation from all season as they are 19-4 as home favorites, bringing in the money in 17 of those and this is a team that needs to lock down their home floor for the first round of the playoffs so all games are huge going forward. Chicago is coming off a win over the Knicks to halt a 2-5 slide and it really has nothing to play for at this point as it is locked in to a road play-in game with the opponent still to be determined and out of its control. The Bulls are on the road for four of their last five games where they are three games under .500 including a 9-18 record as underdogs. This is the prime spot for Orlando which is 15-4 ATS this season as a favorite between 3.5 and 9 points. Here, we play on favorites in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with scoring differential of +/- 3 ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 34-7 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (568) Orlando Magic |
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04-07-24 | Thunder -9 v. Hornets | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER as part of our NBA Sunday Triple Play. Oklahoma City has fallen into third place in the Western Conference following its third straight loss with all three of those games having Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the pine with a quad contusion. This is a team that continues to get no respect as they have been underdogs in their last three games but those were all against solid playoff teams yet they are favored on the road here against one of the worst teams in the league and as a line comparison, not nearly enough considering the Hornets have been at least 12-point underdogs in their last four home games against playoff teams. Charlotte beat Orlando in its last game by nine points as a 12-point underdog as it was the first game played since head coach Steve Clifford was told he would not be retained and that was a spot where the team came together. Now it is a letdown game and coming against a team that is playing for so much at this point. Charlotte is just 11-28 at home while winning just nine of those games and even though it is catching a significant number, it is not where it should be. Here, we play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games going up against an opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game. This situation is 26-3 ATS (89.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (569) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-06-24 | Alabama +12.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 72-86 | Loss | -120 | 80 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our ALA/UCONN Final Four Crusher. We are going contrarian with Alabama as it continues to shoot at a high level and will obviously need to continue that, bringing in the No. 1 ranked scoring offense in the country. Alabama had no issues with its two mid-major opponents as it beat Charleston and Grand Canyon by double digits and then got quality wins over North Carolina and Clemson to get confidence and momentum back for a team that limped into the NCAA Tournament with losses in four of its previous six games. The Huskies ATS run has reached historic levels as they are the 1st team in seeding era to win and cover 10 straight games and going back, the Huskies are on a 26-6 ATS run in the NCAA Tournament, covering 14 of those games by double digits. No one wants to step in front of this train and the number has been on the move with over two-thirds of the tickets and the money on Connecticut which has pushed the number from -10.5 opening to -12 in most places as of Wednesday afternoon. Looking overall, the public has cleaned up as in the NCAA Tournament this season, favorites of eight points or more are 18-5 (78.3 percent) against the number. Free throw shooting is a big factor in these games and Alabama has a big edge. The Tide shoot 78.6 percent from the stripe while Connecticut shoots 73.9 percent which is still good but teams that shoot 75 percent or higher going up teams that shoot less than 75 percent are 85-54-2 ATS (61.2 percent) since 2018. 10* (671) Alabama Crimson Tide |
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04-06-24 | NC State +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -120 | 78 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our NCST/PUR Final Four Dominator. This is the contrarian call and we say contrarian based on the line and the seeding for NC State but not based on the early betting moves which does tell the story early on. The Wolfpack have garnered 75 percent of the money and 65 percent of the tickets but the number has not moved. It has been an historic run for NC State as it has won nine straight games to make it to its first Final Four in over 40 years and this from a team that was not even on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. Its 14 losses are the most ever for any team to make the Final Four. Eight of those losses were Quad 1 defeats but only two of those were by more points than what the Wolfpack are getting here and those were against Duke and North Carolina. Purdue is the big chalk for a reason and it has it all to win the National Championship as the Boilermakers are elite on both sides of the ball, ranked No. 2 on offense and No. 16 on defense in the country and of course are led by center Zach Edey, who has won the Naismith Player of the Year two seasons in a row. Purdue has played 21 games away from home and has gone 17-4 but only seven of those wins have come by more than eight points, two of those coming against non-major teams, three against Big Ten teams that did not make the NCAA Tournament and the other two against Gonzaga by 10 and 12 points and those latter two are the only true quality victories. 10* (673) NC State Wolfpack |
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04-06-24 | Cavs +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 97-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Afternoon Dominator. Seeding implications are on the line for both Cleveland and Los Angeles and we will be taking the inflated number. The Lakers are 8-1 over their last nine games which is their best stretch of the season and are inching closer to being able to host a play in game also in part to New Orleans and Sacramento fading of late. The recent run along with just being the Lakers has forced this number to be where it is and while they are 21-7 as home favorites, they are just 13-13-2 against the number. Cleveland is coming off a loss at Phoenix on Wednesday and it has not been a good run since early March as the Cavaliers are 5-9 over their last 14 games. However, the recent struggles for Milwaukee has kept Cleveland alive for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference as it is just one game behind the Bucks so this is a big two-game Los Angeles weekend. The Cavaliers are 12-3 ATS following a road loss this season and they are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit road loss. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with scoring differentials of +/- 3 ppg, after scoring 120 points or more. This situation is 74-36 ATS (67.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (553) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our NBA Western Conf. Game of the Month. After a horrible loss to San Antonio, Phoenix was faced with a tough task to close the season with its 10 remaining games all coming against playoff teams which was the No. 1 remaining schedule. So far, so good as the Suns are 3-1 including a big win at home over Cleveland last time out with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker combining for 72 points and this roster could finally be finding their rhythm. It will not get any easier here but they are in their best stretch in a long time as they are 6-2 over their last eight games and have moved into a tie for No. 6 in the Western Conference. Minnesota has also regained its form after a 2-4 stretch to open March as the Timberwolves have gone 9-2 since then. It does include two impressive road wins over Denver and the Clippers and they come in 25-13 on the road for the season. They are tied with Denver atop the Western Conference and they are coming off a 48-point win over Toronto and while they have been good after wins, they are just 34-18 off a victory compared to 19-4 off a loss. The defense is still No. 1 in Efficiency but will have their hands full against this team on the road. 10* (550) Phoenix Suns |