05-19-19 |
Bucks v. Raptors OVER 219.5 |
Top |
112-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Toronto Raptors (550). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (70-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 125-103 victory as a 6-point favorite over Toronto (66-30). The Raptors host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. This Bucks team has won and covered the point spread in six straight games. Milwaukee has then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four straight contests. The Bucks have dominated the boards in this series as they have out-rebounded Toronto by 15 and 14 boards in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has then played 28 of their last 39 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last two foes by at least 10 rebounds. The Bucks have also held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting from the field — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after their last five opponents shot no better than 42% over that span. Now after playing their last three games on their home court, Milwaukee goes back on the road where they are scoring 116.8 PPG on 47% shooting from the field. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing their last three games at home. Milwaukee has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog. Toronto has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last eight contests, the Raptors have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after they have failed to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Toronto shot just 42.5% from the field on Friday — but they return home where they are scoring 113.8 PPG while making 47.4% of their shot attempts. The Raptors have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them playing three of these last four situations Over the Total when playing on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has lost their last three encounters with the Bucks — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. The Raptors have also played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Toronto Raptors (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-19 |
Warriors v. Blazers OVER 220.5 |
|
110-99 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Portland Trail Blazers (548). THE SITUATION: Golden State (67-29) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Thursday with their 114-111 win at home over Portland (61-35). The Trail Blazers return home where they will host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Golden State has also seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Warriors have won four straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight contests. And while Golden State has scored at least 114 points in those last three victories, they have then played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after scoring at least 110 points in three straight games. The Warriors have shot at least 49.4% from the field in their last three games as they adjust to life without Durant — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total after shooting at least 47% from the field in three straight games. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Golden State’s last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Warriors are scoring a robust 117.7 PPG on the road while making 49% of their shots from the field. And in these playoffs, Golden State is scoring 117.6 PPG while making 48.9% of their shots. Portland has played 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. The Blazers were out-rebounded by a 56 to 39 margin in Game Two — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards in their last contest. Additionally, Portland has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing at least two games in a row. The Blazers return home where they are making 47.5% of their shots which is generating 118.1 PPG. The Over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Portland has also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 41 home games Over the Total as the favorite. Moving forward, the Blazers have played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the series. Portland has also played 4 straight Game Threes Over the Total in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: The Trail Blazers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less in their last game. With this being a must-win game for Portland, they will either score a bunch of points to overwhelm the Warriors or feel the need to extend the game to keep their chances alive. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Portland Trail Blazers (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-19 |
Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 |
Top |
103-125 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (69-23) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday with their 108-100 victory over Toronto (66-29). The Bucks host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks won this game despite shooting just 39.8% from the field which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games. The seven-day break they experienced after defeating the Celtics in five games resulted in some cold shooters for this Milwaukee team. The Bucks made only 11 of their 44 shots from behind the arc for a 25% shooting clip which was well below their 35.8% percentage when playing at home. Milwaukee scores a robust 119.0 PPG when playing at home given their up-tempo pace and their 47.8% field goal percentage. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Milwaukee should be primed for a better shooting effort tonight as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, the Bucks have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row (as they have after dropping Game One of their series with Boston. Milwaukee has also played 4 straight second games of a playoff series Over the Total. And while the Bucks have not allowed their last three opponents shoot better than 37.8% from the floor, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 42% of their shots in three straight games. Toronto entered the fourth quarter of Game One with 83 points but only Kyrie Lowery managed to score a field goal in those final 12 minutes of play with Kawhi Leonard showing signs of fatigue by missing all three of his field goal attempts during that span. The Raptors shot just 37% from the field which was the lowest shooting effort in their last six games. Toronto has played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 range — and this includes them playing five of these last eight situations Over the Total. The Raptors have also played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total when an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 6 playoff games in the second game of the series, Toronto played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors have played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. And while Toronto has lost the last two games between these two teams, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when looking to avenge at least two straight losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-19 |
Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 220 |
|
111-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (543) and the Golden State Warriors (544). THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-29) won the opening game of this series on Tuesday with their 116-94 victory over Portland (61-34) as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Under is also 15-6-1 in Golden State’s last 22 games when playing with one day of rest. Even without the injured Kevin Durant, the Warriors shot 50% from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. Golden State got 36 points from their reserves on Tuesday which was out of character for that group as they were just 28th of the 30 NBA teams in terms of scoring production from their bench. The Warriors stay at home tonight where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total at home favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Golden State has also now played 6 straight games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals. Portland lacked focus on the defensive end of the court as the 50% field goal percentage for the Warriors was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. The funk that Portland endured extended to their head coach with Terry Stotts being having his team play too far off Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson as if the bigger threat on offense was the Warriors role players who were still dealing with one-on-one defenders. It is incredible — after Houston overcompensated in the sixth and final game in that series by barely paying attention to the non-Splash Brothers in the first half of that game, the Blazers pulled a complete 180-degree turn as they focused more efforts trying to slow down the likes of Kevon Looney. Needless to say, I expect Stotts and this Portland team to find a happy medium where they correctly identify the Splash Brothers as the two biggest scoring threats for the Warriors without then leaving open shots for the remaining three Golden State players on the court. Portland’s success in these playoffs has been in large part due to their improved play on the defensive end of the court as they have held their playoff opponents to just a 43.6% field goal percentage. But the Blazers are making just 41.3% of their shots this postseason. They have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. Portland has also played 4 straight games Under the Total in the second game of a playoff series. And while Golden State nails 38.5% of their 3-point shots, the Trail Blazers have played 42 of their last 69 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 36% of their shots from behind the arc.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in the Oracle Center at Golden State. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (543) and the Golden State Warriors (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-19 |
Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218.5 |
|
100-108 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (531) and the Milwaukee Bucks (532). THE SITUATION: Toronto (66-28) survived their seven-game series with their 92-90 victory over Philadelphia as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (68-23) takes the court again for the first time since last Wednesday when they closed out their five-game series with Boston with their 116-91 victory as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 7-3-1 in the Raptors’ last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Toronto has also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. And while the Raptors have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. Toronto is playing outstanding defense as they have held their playoff opponents to just 41.3% shooting which has translated into just 96.0 PPG. But the Raptors are also struggling to score baskets as they have made only 43.6% of their shots over their last five games which has resulted in just 102.8 PPG during that span which is -10.3 PPG below their season average. Milwaukee has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. And while the Bucks have covered the point spread in eight of their last nine games, they have then played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Milwaukee is also playing outstanding defense this postseason as they are holding their playoff opponents to just 39.9% shooting which has resulted in 101.6 PPG which is -6.9 PPG below their season average. But the Bucks are also shooting only 43.5% from the field in their last five games which has generated 113.0 PPG which is -5.0 PPG below their season scoring average. Milwaukee stays at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams as they begin this seven-game series. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (531) and the Milwaukee Bucks (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-19 |
Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
94-116 |
Win
|
101 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (533) and the Golden State Warriors (534). THE SITUATION: Portland (61-33) advanced to the Western Conference Finals on Sunday with their 100-96 upset victory in Denver as a 5.5-point underdog. Golden State (65-29) reached the Western Conference Finals two days earlier on Friday when they upset Houston on the road by a 118-113 sore as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors stepped up without Kevin Durant on Friday as they made 49.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But this team will miss Durant’s scoring ability as he will likely miss the first few games of this series. Stephen Curry was outstanding in the second half by scoring 33 points — but he did not score in a first half where Golden State got surprising scoring contributions from their reserves. Curry and Klay Thompson have been inconsistent in these playoffs. This team is making only 46.4% of their shots over their last five games which is far below their 49.0% field goal percentage for the season. The Warriors have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Golden State has also played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Warriors return home where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 36 of their last 58 home games Under the Total when favored in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Additionally, Golden State has played 5 straight games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors are making 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc — and Portland has played 41 of their last 68 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 36% from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers have stepped up their play on the defensive end of the court. They held the Nuggets to just 37.1% shooting on Sunday after limiting them to a 38.4% field goal percentage in Game Six of that series. Portland has held their last five opponents to a 42.9% field goal percentage which is a few clicks better than their 45.3% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. But the Blazers are making only 42.4% of their shots over their last five games which is a bit below their 46.4% field goal percentage for the year. Portland will also likely be without their super sub, Rodney Hood, who has been downgraded to being doubtful given the knee injury he suffered in Sunday’s game. The Trail Blazers have also played 12 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: This is Golden State’s fourth game in the last ten days — and in games involving teams who have won five or six of their last seven games and is now playing just their fourth game (or less) in the last ten days, these games finished Under the Total in 435 of the last 764 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (533) and the Golden State Warriors (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-19 |
76ers v. Raptors UNDER 210 |
|
90-92 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (58-35) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 112-101 upset win at home over Toronto (65-28) as a 1.5-point underdog. The Raptors return home to host this seventh game.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Philadelphia has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Sixers made 46.1% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in the last three games of this series. But this is a team that makes only 43.9% of their shots over the last five games in this series. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Toronto has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Raptors have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Raptors have also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 |
|
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (525) and the Denver Nuggets (526). THE SITUATION: Portland (60-33) forced a climactic seventh game of this Western Conference series on Thursday with their 119-108 victory at home over Denver (61-34) as a 4-point home favorite. The Nuggets host this game at the Pepsi Center.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Portland has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win at home over a fellow Northwest Division rival. The Trail Blazers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Head coach Terry Stotts got a fantastic contribution on Thursday from second-year big man, Zach Collins, who scored 14 points in that game. But the reason why Collins played over 28 minutes in that game (the most he has played in a game since January of last season) including the entire fourth quarter were his contributions on the defensive end of the court. Collins blocked five shots while altering plenty more as he provided Portland a rim protector that Enes Kanter does not offer. Collins is not likely to score another 14 points in this game — but he will likely play significant minutes once again instead of Kanter with Stotts trading offense for defense. The last four games in this series have seen 224 combined points scored in each of those contests — but the Blazers have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Additionally, Portland has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when attempting to close out a playoff series. Denver has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Nuggets have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Now Denver returns home where they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Nuggets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the playoffs when the series is tied — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series.
FINAL TAKE: Despite the last four games in this series finishing Over the Total, Denver and Portland are shooting just 42.3% and 42.7% from the field over the last five games in this series. Expect this to be a lower scoring game than the previous four contests. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (525) and the Denver Nuggets (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-19 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
118-113 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Houston Rockets (520). THE SITUATION: Golden State (59-33) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 104-99 victory at home over Houston (59-33) as a 6-point underdog. This series moves back to the Rockets’ Toyota Center tonight for Game Six with Houston looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The calf injury that Kevin Durant suffered in the second half of this game that will keep him out the rest of this series is the most important intangible in handicapping this game. The Warriors will be looking to re-invent their Splash Brothers offense of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson circa the 2015-16 season before they signed Kevin Durant as a free agent. I do expect Golden State to attempt to play at a faster pace as their offense has tended to slow down to adapt to Durant’s isolation game in the half-court. But that all said, I do not expect the efficiency of the Warriors offense to significantly improve — especially without the luxury of having Durant that head coach Steve Kerr describes as the ultimate weapon. For starters, neither Curry nor Thompson are not in great form. Thomson’s series high is 27 points while he has only connected on thirteen shots from behind the arc in all five games. Curry has reached 30 points just once in this series while not nailing more than five 3-pointers in a game in this series while he seems to be slowed by a hyperextended left finger along with a right ankle issue. Furthermore, those pre-Durant Golden State teams had a better set of complementary offensive pieces (such as Harrison Barnes and a more productive Draymond Green on offense) than this current group that began the season banking on big contributions from DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets have been doing a great job of defending Curry and Thompson in this series. Chris Paul remains a strong on-the-ball defender but what this Houston team has after him is a slew of guards with size whose length can mess with the Splash Brothers: James Harden is 6’5, Eric Gordon is 6’4, Austin Rivers is 6’4, Iman Shumpert is 6’5, Gerard Green is 6’7, and P.J. Tucker is 6’6. What head coach Mike D’Antoni chooses to do with Tucker will be particularly interesting since he has been relieved of being the primary defender on Durant for the Rockets. Frankly, Houston also has three more years of experience under their belts defending the Splash Brothers’ offense that a number of teams have copy-catted as they embraced up-tempo offensive systems that emphasize launching tons of 3s. And this Rockets team has steadily improved in their defensive play due to some important reconfigurations of their roster along with the continued work of their defensive guru in assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik. Houston boasted the second best Defensive Rating in the NBA over the last fifteen games of the regular season — and they have held their opponents in the playoffs to just 43.3% shooting from the field which has resulted in a -5.2 drop in points they are allowing per game from the 113.3 PPG they gave up in the regular season. Golden State typically plays harder on defense when they are away from home as well — they hold their home hosts to just 43.7% shooting as compared to the 44.4% overall mark this year. The Under is 10-2-1 in the Warriors’ last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Golden State has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Warriors’ last 27 games when playing with one day of rest. The Under is 18-5-2 in Houston’s last 26 games when playing with just one day of rest. Houston has also seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The Rockets have only reached their 117.7 PPG scoring average once in this series with it being evident that Chris Paul is not the same offensive player that he once was. Paul is making only 45% of his midrange jump shots in these playoffs — and the 58% shooting inside feet of the basket is a few notches below the 61% mark he enjoyed in last year’s Western Conference Finals. Houston returns home where the Under is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when looking to stave off elimination in a playoff series. They will dedicate their defensive energies in stopping Curry and Thompson to dare the Warriors to rely on their secondary scorers. The Under is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams when playing in Houston. 25* NBA Second Round ESPN Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Houston Rockets (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-09-19 |
Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 216 |
|
108-119 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (515) and the Portland Trail Blazers (516). THE SITUATION: Denver (61-33) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 124-98 victory at home against Portland (59-33) as a 5.5-point favorite. The Trail Blazers return for Game Six of this series hoping to keep their season alive.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow Northwest Division rival. Denver shot 48.9% from the field on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort for them in their last four games. They have launched at least 90 shots in the last five games in this series playing at a fast pace that the Blazers have been happy to oblige — but they have then played 18 of their last 23 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in at least two straight games. The Nuggets are still playing very good defense as they have held Portland to just 43.6% shooting in the five games in this series. The last three games in this series have seen 222, 228, and 277 combined points — but Denver has played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total where at least 215 combined points were scored while also playing 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Denver has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Portland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. And while the Blazers have allowed the Nuggets to score at least 116 points in each of their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Trail Blazers have played 3 of their last 4 games when looking to avenge a loss by at least 20 points. 10* NBA Denver-Portland ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (515) and the Portland Trail Blazers (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-09-19 |
Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 |
|
101-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (513) and the Philadelphia 76ers (514). THE SITUATION: Toronto (65-27) seized a 3-2 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 125-89 victory at home over Philadelphia (57-35) as a 6-point favorite. This series returns to Philly where the 76ers look to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers did not work very hard on defense on Tuesday as they allowed Toronto to score 125 points while making 48.8% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. They went into halftime trailing by a despicable 64-43 margin in Game Five. Philadelphia has then played 39 of their last 59 games Under the Total after trailing by at least 20 points in their last game. Effort on the defensive end of the court should not be an issue for this team tonight as they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after enduring a loss by at least 30 points in their last game — and this team has played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing by at least 20 points in their last contest. They should play better on the defensive end of the court tonight as they hold their visitors to just a 44.8% shooting percentage — and they have still held the Raptors to only a 43.4% field goal percentage over their last five games. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while this is the Sixers fourth game in the last ten days, they have played 21 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing just their fourth game in the last ten days. Toronto has valued 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have also played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total after winning two straight games against an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, the Under is 7-2-1 in the Raptors’ last 10 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. While the offensive exploits of Kawhi Leonard get most of the headlines with this team, the under-appreciated story to the success has been their outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Toronto has held their playoff opponents to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. Now the Raptors go back on the road where the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Toronto has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Raptors have also played 10 of their last 15 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With Game Five of this series (finally) going Over the Total, expect this to be a lower scoring contest. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (513) and the Philadelphia 76ers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-19 |
Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 221 |
|
99-104 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (511) and the Golden State Warriors (512). THE SITUATION: Houston (59-32) evened this series at 2-2 on Monday with their 112-108 victory over Golden State (63-29) as a 1-point favorite. The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center to host Game Five of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Rockets’ last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. And while Houston has scored at least 109 points in each of the last three games, they have then played 28 of their last 42 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight contests. Now the Rockets go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Houston has played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when getting no more than 6 points as the dog. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 15 of their last 21 Game Fives in a playoff series Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in a playoff series that is tied. Golden State has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when a playoff series is tied. Additionally, the Warriors have played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss overall. Golden State has also played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two straight games on the road. The Warriors return home to host Game Five where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 9-3-1 in their last 13 meetings — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Golden State. 10* NBA Houston-Golden State TNT O/U Special with the Houston Rockets (511) and the Golden State Warriors (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-19 |
Celtics v. Bucks OVER 218 |
|
91-116 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the Milwaukee Bucks (510). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (67-23) took a commanding 3-1 lead in this series on Monday with their 113-101 upset victory over Boston (54-36) as a 1-point underdog. The Bucks return home with the possibility of closing out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee pulled off two straight upset victories in Boston against the Celtics. The Bucks have then played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning two straight games on the road as the underdog. The Bucks held Boston to just a 37.8% field goal percentage on Monday which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Milwaukee also launched 100 shots in that win in Game Four — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after attempting at least 100 shots in their last game. Additionally, the Bucks have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after a double-digit victory, Milwaukee has played 5 of these games Over the Total. The Bucks have also played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Boston’s 37.8% field goal percentage on Monday was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. The Celtics have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Celtics have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from two straight upset losses. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the Milwaukee Bucks (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 |
|
98-124 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (507) and the Denver Nuggets (508). THE SITUATION: Denver (60-33) evened this series at 2-2 on Sunday with their 116-112 upset win at Portland (59-32) as a 3-point underdog. The Nuggets return home where they host the fifth game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers have played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Portland made 47.6% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. The Blazers have only covered the point spread once in their last four contests — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. And while these two teams have seen 228 and 277 combined points scored in the last two games (including the 140-137 triple-overtime thriller in Game Three of this series), Portland has then played 15 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games after playing at least two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. The Nuggets have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset victory. Denver returns home where they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Nuggets have launched 92, 119, and 98 shots in each of their last three games, they have then played 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in at least two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Under the Total with the series tied. Expect a lower scoring contest tonight. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (507) and the Denver Nuggets (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-19 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 211.5 |
|
89-125 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (505) and the Toronto Raptors (506). THE SITUATION: Toronto (64-27) evened this series at 2-2 on Sunday with their 101-96 upset victory over Philadelphia (57-34). The Raptors host the fifth game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kawhi Leonard finally got some help on the offensive end of the court on Sunday as Toronto shot 46.1% from the field en route to that victory. The Raptors also got a boost with the surprising ability of Pascal Siakam to play despite being listed as doubtful with his right calf injury. Siakam only scored 9 points while adding 3 rebounds but he should be at least a little better tonight with an extra two days of recovery since then. The Toronto supporting cast play better again tonight back on their home court where they scorer 114.0 PPG on 47.6% shooting from the field. The Raptors have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after pulling off an upset win on as a road underdog — and this includes them playing five of these last seven situations Over the Total. Toronto has also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after an upset win over an Atlantic Divisional rival. The Raptors have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by 6 points or less. And while all four of the games in this series have finished Under the Total, Toronto has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. The Raptors have also played 8 of their last 12 Game Fives in a playoff series Over the Total. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Sixers have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total after a loss on their home court. And they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. Philly shot just 40.2% from the field on Sunday with Joel Embiid hampered by an illness that clearly kept him from being close to 100%. Embiid managed only 11 points in that game. The 76ers sore 111.8 PPG on the road on 46.6% shooting so they should shoot better tonight.
FINAL TAKE: All four games so far in this series have finished Under the Total — while the closest game has been decided by 4 points. Expect this to be the first game in this series where both teams are executing on the offensive end of the court. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (505) and the Toronto Raptors (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-19 |
Warriors v. Rockets OVER 220 |
|
108-112 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Houston Rockets (504). THE SITUATION: Houston (58-32) made this a 2-1 series on Saturday with their 126-121 win in overtime over Golden State (63-28) as a 3.5-point favorite. The Rockets host Game Four of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total on the road after a game where they scored at least 115 points in their last game. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Warriors should shoot better tonight after making just 44.2% of their shots on Saturday. That was the worst shooting effort in their last thirteen games. Golden State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Warriors have also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when leading in a playoff series. Houston has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when trailing in a playoff series. Golden State is outscoring their opponents by +6.5 PPG — and the Rockets have played 20 of their last 31 games Over the Total against teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least +3.0 PPG. And while the Warriors are making 38.5% of their 3-point shots this season, Houston has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total against teams who shoot at least 36% from behind the arc.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is also supported by an empirical situational angle that has been 61% effective since 1996. In games involving a team that allowed at least 120 points in their last game now facing a team that played a game where at least 235 combined points were scored, these games finished Over the Total in 398 of the last 673 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Houston Rockets (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-19 |
Bucks v. Celtics OVER 219 |
Top |
113-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Boston Celtics (502). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (66-23) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 123-116 upset win at Boston (54-35) as a 2-point underdog. The Celtics host the fourth game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road after a win by at least 20 points. Milwaukee has also played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bucks have played 24 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee stays on the road where they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against a team with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Boston has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. And while Boston has lost the last two games in this series, they have then played 8 straight home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three contests. Additionally, the Celtics have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. And in their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road, Boston has played 7 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 18-7-1 in their last 26 games when playing in Boston. The Celtics have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* NBA Monday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Boston Celtics (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-19 |
Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 210 |
|
116-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (593) and the Portland Trail Blazers (594). THE SITUATION: Portland (59-31) survived a triple-affair on Friday with their 140-137 victory as a 5.5-point favorite over Denver (59-33) to take a 2-1 lead in this series. The Trail Blazers host the fourth game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: If there is a silver lining from the Nuggets’ loss on Friday, it is that Nikola Jokic simply seems to be unstoppable in this series. Jokic scored 33 points while adding 18 rebounds and 14 assists in the losing effort. With the Trail Blazers having to resort to Enes Kantor as their starting center after the season-ending injury to Jusuf Nurkic, they do not have a defender who can slow Jokic down on their defensive end of the court. Denver has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Over is also 17-8-1 in their last 26 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 6 games on the road, Denver has played all 6 games Over the Total. Portland has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 20 home games after a game where they did not cover the point spread. The Blazers have also seen the Over go 22-8-2 in their last 31 games when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 19 home games after a game that finished Over the Total, Portland has played 14 of these games Over the Total. They stay home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and the Over is also 13-3-1 in their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing in Portland. With both these teams tired with just a 41-hour turnaround from their triple-overtime marathon on Friday, expect the defensive play to be less than desired tonight. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (593) and the Portland Trail Blazers (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-19 |
Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 214.5 |
|
101-96 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (591) and the Philadelphia 76ers (592). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (57-33) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 116-95 upset victory over Toronto (63-27) as a 1.5-point underdog. The 76ers host Game Four of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors simply need to make their darn open shots. They have missed 35 of their 50 open 3-pointers so far in this series — and their failure to make these shots has prompted them to be more cautious in even taking these shots in Game Three. That is not this Toronto team’s game: they led the NBA in both volume and accuracy from the 3-point line after the trade deadline. After making only 36.3% of their shots in Game Two, the Raptors followed that up by shooting just 42.2% from the field with those two efforts being the worst offensive performances in their last eleven games. That should improve this afternoon. Toronto’s complications were heightened yesterday with the news that they will be without their rising star, Paskal Siakam, who is dealing with a right calf injury. The Raptors are likely to respond with Fred VanVleet entering the starting lineup for a three-guard small-ball set. Toronto will likely embrace a faster pace with the small lineup — and this will likely push them to get back to launching 3s with no abandon again. The smaller lineup does have it’s drawbacks since it will further expose the size disadvantage they are burdened with when facing this Sixers team. Toronto has played 20 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points against an Atlantic Division rival. The Raptors have also played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. The 76ers have also played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning their last two games against a divisional rival. And the Sixers have also played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points over an Atlantic Division foe. Philly has out-rebounded their last eight opponents by at least six boards per game — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last five opponents by at least +5.0 RPG. The 76ers have also played 5 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss. The Raptors have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when avenging two straight upset losses. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (591) and the Philadelphia 76ers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-19 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 221 |
Top |
121-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (589) and the Houston Rockets (590). THE SITUATION: Golden State (63-27) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 115-109 victory over Houston (57-32) as a 5.5-point favorite. The Rockets host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest between contests. They return home where the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games — and they have also played 5 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Rockets’ have more than an 0-2 deficit to be concerned about after James Harden got his eyes raked on Tuesday. While Harden will play, he indicates that he is still feeling the effects of that injury. Houston made 46.8% of their shots in Game Two which was actually the best field goal percentage in their last five games. The Rockets have been thriving in the last quarter of the regular season by significantly ramping up their play on the defensive end of the court. Over the last fifteen games of the regular season, Houston had the fourth best Defensive Rating in the NBA. In these playoffs, the Rockets are allowing only 101.1 PPG along with a 42.3% field goal percentage which is far below the 108.5 PPG they are allowing for the season along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.3%. In their last five playoff games, Houston is holding their opponents to just 100.8 PPG on 41.3% shooting from the field. The Rockets have played a decisive 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Golden State is not often the underdog — the two-time defending NBA champions usually tighten things up on the defensive end of the court when their victory is not a foregone conclusion (in their minds). The Warriors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when they were the underdog — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Golden State has played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The 46.8% shooting percentage that Houston executed on Tuesday was the highest field goal percentage that the Warriors had allowed in their last three games. When playing on the road, Golden State holds its home hosts to just a 43.6% field goal percentage.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. And despite the high Totals that typically are associated with these two high scoring teams, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Second Round Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (589) and the Houston Rockets (590). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-19 |
Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215 |
Top |
137-140 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (587) and the Portland Trail Blazers (588). THE SITUATION: Portland (58-31) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 97-90 upset victory over Denver (59-32) as a 4-point underdog. The Trail Blazers host the third and fourth of games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets pulled the upset over the Trail Blazers in the opening game of this series by nailing 40.4% of their 3-pointers en route to a 50.6% shooting percentage for that game. It was a much different story in Game Two as they made only 6 of their 29 shots from behind the arc for a dismal 20.7% shooting percentage from 3-point land. Their 34.7% field goal percentage in that game was their lowest mark of the entire season. Denver has played 25 of their last 43 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Nuggets have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, Denver goes back on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. The Nuggets score 107.4 PPG on the road — and they allowed 110.1 PPG in those contests. Denver has played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Portland has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory over a fellow Northwest Division rival — and this includes them play those last four situations Over the Total. The Over is also 21-8-2 in the Trail Blazers’ last 31 games when playing with one day of rest. Now Portland returns home where they are scoring 117.8 PPG on 47.7% shooting from the field. The Blazers pulled off their upset on Wednesday despite making only 42.4% of their shots. The Nuggets’ 34.7% field goal percentage in that game was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in Portland’s last 79 games. The Blazers allow their visitors to shoot 45% from the field which generates 109.3 PPG. The Over is 16-4-1 in Portland’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Blazers have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games played in Portland Over the Total. 25* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (587) and the Portland Trail Blazers (588). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-19 |
Bucks v. Celtics OVER 219 |
Top |
123-116 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (585) and the Boston Celtics (586). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (65-23) evened this series at 1-1 on Tuesday with their 123-102 victory over the Celtics. Boston (54-34) hosts Games Three and Four of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points. They now go on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Boston has played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Celtics shot just 39.5% from the field on Tuesday which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last five games. They return home where they are making 47% of their shots en route to 113.0 PPG. Boston has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 38 of their last 57 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. Lastly, the Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these two teams in Boston. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (585) and the Boston Celtics (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-19 |
Raptors v. 76ers OVER 216.5 |
Top |
95-116 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (581) and the Philadelphia 76ers (582). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-33) evened this series at 1-1 on Monday with their 94-89 upset victory at Toronto (63-26) as a 7.5-point underdog. The 76ers return home to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games after a victory by 6 points or less. The 76ers have also played 5 of their last 7 games over the Total when playing with two days of rest — and that extra day of rest should help Joel Embiid be ready to play this game as he deals with knee injuries. Philadelphia held the Raptors to just a 36.3% shooting percentage on Monday which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 41 games. But the Sixers also shot just 39.5% from the field in that low-scoring game. Now Philly returns home where they are scoring 118.6 PPG on the strength of 48.5% shooting from the field. The 76ers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Toronto’s 36.3% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last 53 games. They also missed 27 shots from behind the arc on Monday — they should improve significantly on that resulting 27% mark from 3-point land tonight considering that they are making 36.6% of their shots from behind the arc on the road. The Raptors are averaging 113.2 PPG when playing on the road. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Toronto has also played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, in Toronto’s last 18 games overall in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Raptors have played 13 of these games Over the Total. And in their last 13 games in the Eastern Conference Playoff Semifinals, Toronto has played 9 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road when avenging a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings in Toronto Over the Total. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (581) and the Philadelphia 76ers (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-01-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 219 |
Top |
97-90 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (577) and the Denver Nuggets (578). THE SITUATION: Denver (59-31) won the opening game of this series on Monday with their 121-113 victory over Portland (57-31). The Nuggets host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The silver lining for the Trail Blazers in Game One was that Enes Kanter was able to play despite a shoulder injury that had him questionable. Kanter played 33 minutes which allowed him to score 26 points while making 11 of his 14 shots. He is more of an offensive threat than Jusuf Nurkic who is out the season with an ankle injury. The problem for the Blazers with Kanter absorbing Nurkic’s minutes is that he is a liability on the defensive end of the court. Denver’s Nikola Jokic exploited him by scoring 37 points on 11 of 18 shooting while pulling down 9 rebounds. Kanter’s presence on both ends of the court has generated higher scoring games — and bettors have yet to catch up. Portland has played 27 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Blazers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Over is 21-7-2 in Portland’s last 30 games when playing with one day of rest. And while this the Blazers just second game in the last seven days after they dismissed Oklahoma City in five games, they have played 4 straight games when playing their second game in seven days. Portland has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow Northwest Division opponents. Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against Northwest Division foes. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Nuggets increase their offensive proficiency when playing at home — they are scoring 113.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting from the field at the Pepsi Center as compared to their 110.4 PPG scoring overall on 46.6% shooting this season. Denver has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 straight Overs — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing in Denver. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (577) and the Denver Nuggets (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-19 |
Rockets v. Warriors OVER 220.5 |
Top |
109-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (573) and the Golden State Warriors (574). THE SITUATION: Golden State (62-27) won the opening game of this series on Sunday with their 104-100 victory over Houston (57-31). The Warriors host the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State smoked this Rockets team who had been playing good defense by making 50.7% of their shots on Sunday. The Warriors have a 49.2% field goal percentage at home in the Oracle Center which has translated into 118.2 PPG. Over their last five games, Golden State is making 50% of their shots — and they are shooting 50.3% from the field so far in these playoffs. This shapes up to be a high-scoring game as the Warriors have played 8 of their last 9 second games to a new playoff series Over the Total. Golden State has also played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total when leading in a playoff series — and this includes them playing three of these last four games Over the Total when leading in that playoff series. Houston should shoot better than the 41.9% field goal percentage they endured in the opening game of this series. The Rockets have played four straight games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing four straight games Under the Total. Houston averages 110.2 PPG when playing on the road. The Rockets have also been out-rebounded by 13, 14, and 14 boards in each of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded in their last three games by at least 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. Houston has also played 14 of their last 21 second games in a new playoff series Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen their last three games finish Under the Total — but the first game these two teams played in 2019 was in the Oracle Center where the Rockets won by a 135-134 score. After Game One finished Under the Total by more than 20 points, look for this game to finish Over the Total. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (573) and the Golden State Warriors (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-19 |
Celtics v. Bucks OVER 218 |
|
102-123 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (571) and the Milwaukee Bucks (572). THE SITUATION: Boston (54-33) won the opening game of this series on Sunday with their 112-90 upset victory over Milwaukee (64-23) as an 8-point underdog. The Bucks host the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a victory by at least 15 points. Boston has also played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. The Celtics stay on the road tonight where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total coming off an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. The Bucks have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after double-digit loss a home. The Bucks should shoot much better tonight after making only 34.8% of their shots in Game One which was the worst shooting effort in their last 32 games. The Celtics made a point of double-teaming Giannis Antetokounmpo when he got the ball down low — he made just 4 of 15 shots inside the paint. The solution to this tactic is for his teammates to make open shots when the Greek Freak passes out of these double-teams — but these shots were simply not falling on Sunday which prompted him to force too many shots down low. Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They also make 48.1% of their shots at home which translates into 119.2 PPG. Additionally, the Over is 14-6-1 in the Bucks’ last 21 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total the avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Over is also 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between these two teams. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (571) and the Milwaukee Bucks (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 215 |
Top |
113-121 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). THE SITUATION: Portland (57-30) takes the court again for the first time since last Tuesday after they disposed of Oklahoma City in five games with their 118-115 win as a 3.5-point favorite. Denver (58-31) defeated San Antonio on Sunday by a 90-86 score as a 6.5-point favorite to win that series in seven games. The Nuggets host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and the Over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Portland launched 96 shots in that game after attempting 90 shots in Game Four of that series. The Blazers have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. Portland now goes back on the road where they are scoring 111.0 PPG while also allowing 111.0 PPG. The Trail Blazers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. The Nuggets shot just 39.8% from the field in that game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. Denver survived because they limited the Spurs to shooting only 36.5% which was the best defensive effort in their last sixteen games. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Denver stays at home where they are scoring 113.0 PPG this season on 48.2% shooting from the field — and they are making 48.3% of their shots in the playoffs. The Nuggets have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 encounters Over the Total when playing in Denver. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-19 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 219.5 |
|
94-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (501) and the Toronto Raptors (502). THE SITUATION: Toronto (63-25) won the opening game of this series on Saturday with their 108-95 victory over Philadelphia (55-33) as a 6-point favorite. The Raptors host Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win at home over a divisional rival. The Raptors have won five straight games while covering the point spread in four of those contests. Toronto has played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Raptors have also played 26 of their last 41 games Over the Total after winning two straight games — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three games in a row. Furthermore, Toronto has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. The Raptors stay at home where they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a victory. And in their last 12 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Toronto has played 9 of these games Over the Total. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight up loss. The 76ers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Philadelphia should shoot better tonight as they shot just 39.3% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last eleven games. The Sixers did out-rebound the Raptors by a 56 to 50 margin on Saturday. That was the sixth straight game where Philadelphia out-rebounded their opponent by at least 6 boards — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last five opponents by at least +5.0 RPG.
FINAL TAKE: Expect the second game of this series to be a higher-scoring contest. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (501) and the Toronto Raptors (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-19 |
Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 210.5 |
|
86-90 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game of this series on Thursday with their 120-103 win over Denver (57-31) as a 3-point favorite. The Nuggets host the final game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver should step up their work efforts on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Spurs to make 57.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 45 games. The Nuggets have played 38 of their last 55 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Denver has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. The Nuggets have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Denver returns home where they hold their opponents to just 44.9% shooting from the field. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of no better than 40% on the road. Denver has also played 24 of their last 38 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio enjoyed the best shooting mark in their last 39 games — so they are not likely to come close to replicating that 57.1% shooting mark. The Spurs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now San Antonio goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. The Spurs have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. With the pressure of a Game Seven impacting the nerves of both teams, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NBA Bailout Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-19 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 222.5 |
Top |
95-108 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Philadelphia 76ers (553) and the Toronto Raptors (554). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-32) has won four straight games after they disposed of Brooklyn in five games culminating in a 122-100 victory at home on Tuesday as a 9.5-point favorite. Toronto (62-35) has won four straight games as well after taking care of Orlando in five games after their 115-96 victory at home over the Magic on Tuesday as an 11-point favorite. The Raptors host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 76ers have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a victory by at least 20 points over a fellow Atlantic Division rival — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total after winning their last two games against divisional foes. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. The Sixers held the Nets to just 38.7% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last twenty games. Philadelphia did not let Brooklyn shoot better than 41.1% from the field in the last three games of that series — but they have then played a decisive 46 of their last 72 games Over the Total after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. Furthermore, the Sixers controlled the boards in their series against the Nets as they out-rebounded them by at least 7 rebounds per game in all five games of that series. Philly has then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last five opponents by at least 5.0 RPG. Moving forward, the 76ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Toronto has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Raptors have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Toronto has also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Raptors also played very good defense in their opening series as well — they have not allowed their last seven opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. But Toronto has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after not allowing at least three straight opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 14 meetings Over the Total — and this includes them playing 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. Expect these team trends to continue tonight in this opening game of this Eastern Conference Semifinals series. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between the Philadelphia 76ers (553) and the Toronto Raptors (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-19 |
Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233 |
|
129-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Los Angeles Clippers (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-37) extended this series to a sixth game on Wednesday with their 129-121 upset victory in Golden State as a 15-point underdog. This series moves back to the Staples Center in Los Angeles with the Clippers looking to force a climactic seventh game.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State should play better on defense after allowing the Clippers to score 129 points on 54.1% shooting from the field. The Warriors have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, Golden State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. Now Golden State goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and the Warriors have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Golden State has played 36 of their last 54 road games Under the Total with the Total set at least at 230. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Clippers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a Friday night. Now Los Angeles returns home to the Staples Center where they have played 33 of their last 50 home games in the second half of the season Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG (Golden State: +6.5 net PPG). Furthermore, these team trends are complemented by a historical angle the has been 64% effective since 1996. In the month of April with the Total set at 220 or higher, when one of the teams comes off a win on the road, these games finished Under the Total in 54 of these last 84 situations.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when motivated to avenge an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Golden State-LA Clippers ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Los Angeles Clippers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-19 |
Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 208.5 |
|
103-120 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (525) and the San Antonio Spurs (526). THE SITUATION: Denver (57-30) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 108-90 victory over the Spurs (50-37) as a 5.5-point favorite. This series returns to San Antonio tonight for Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while that game on Tuesday finished Under the Total, Denver has then played 30 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a game that finished below the Total. Furthermore, the Nuggets have won and covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games while also playing eighteen of their last twenty-five games after winning three of tiger last four contests. Denver goes on the road where they are the underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Spurs are playing their sixth game over the last fourteen days — and they have played 17 of their 25 games Under the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in the last fourteen days. San Antonio has also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total with the Spurs hosting the game. San Antonio has also played 23 of their last 35 home games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. 10* NBA Denver-San Antonio TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (525) and the San Antonio Spurs (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-19 |
Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
129-121 |
Loss |
-101 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (515) and the Golden State Warriors (516). THE SITUATION: Golden State (60-26) took a commanding 3-1 lead in this series on Monday with their 113-105 victory over the Clippers (49-37). The Warriors look to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Warriors took 13 fewer free throws on Monday after attempting 16 fewer free throws than the Clippers in Game Three — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after attempting at least ten fewer free throws than their opponent in two straight games. Now Golden State returns home to the Oracle Center where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their last two games at home. The Clippers go back on the road where they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total. And in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court, Los Angeles has played 16 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home their opponent. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (515) and the Golden State Warriors (516). Best luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-19 |
Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 214 |
|
93-100 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (517) and the Houston Rockets (518). THE SITUATION: Utah (51-35) staved off elimination on Monday with their 107-91 upset win at home as a 2-point underdog against the Rockets (56-30). This series returns home to Houston for Game Five with the Rockets have another opportunity to close out this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jazz have found success in this series by amping up their physicality on the defensive end of the court. Despite losing a heartbreaker on their home court last Saturday, Utah held the Rockets to just 38.4% shooting in Game Three before limiting them to only a 35.4% field goal percentage on Monday. The Jazz have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset victory as a home underdog. Utah has also played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win on their home court. Furthermore, the Jazz have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 19 games against Western Conference opponents, Utah has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points on the road. The Under is also 6-0-1 in the Rockets’ last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now Houston returns home where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games — and the Under is also 4-1-1 in the Rockets’ last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Houston has played 16 of their last 21 playoff games Under the Total when attempting to close out a series.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. These two teams have now played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (517) and the Houston Rockets (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-19 |
Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
115-118 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (503) and the Portland Trail Blazers (504). THE SITUATION: Portland (56-30) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Sunday with their 111-98 upset victory in Oklahoma City against the Thunder (50-36). The Trail Blazers return home with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Oklahoma City offense has stalled in their three losses where they have failed to score even 100 points. Paul George is showing signs of being less than 100% with injuries to both his shoulders. He is making only 37% of his shots in this series while shooting just 30.8% from behind the arc — he is simply not close to his outstanding form in February prior to the All-Star Break when he was making a case to being the league’s Most Valuable Player. Russell Westbrook is also struggling as he is making only 36.3% of his shots in this series while shooting only 30.4% from behind the arc. The Thunder have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in OKC’s last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Thunder have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 74 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Under is 50-23-1. Portland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games after a win over a Northwest Division rival. The Trail Blazers have also played 5 of their last games Under the Total after a point spread win. Portland certainly deserves much of the credit for the strong defense they are playing in this series. The Blazers have held the Thunder to just 41.3% shooting percentage from the field along with a low 30.8% mark from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA First Round Northwest Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (503) and the Portland Trail Blazers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-19 |
Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 215 |
Top |
91-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (575) and the Utah Jazz (576). THE SITUATION: Houston (50-35) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday night with their 104-101 upset win in Utah (50-35) as a 2-point underdog. The Jazz host Game Four looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a pulling off an upset victory — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games after a victory by 6 points or less. That game finished below the 214.5 point Total — and Houston has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Rockets are playing their best defense of the season. They have held their last five opponents to just a 41.7% shooting percentage. Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after holding their last five opponents to no higher than a 42% field goal percentage. Now the Rockets go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Houston has played an incredible 36 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them playing eleven of their last fourteen games Under the Total in that situation. Additionally, the Rockets have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when attempting to close out a playoff series. Utah has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Over their last five games, this team is shooting only 43.3% from the field. The Jazz stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with at least triple revenge. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Round One Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (575) and the Utah Jazz (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-19 |
Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 217 |
Top |
119-103 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Detroit Pistons (562). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (62-22) took a commanding 2-0 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 120-99 victory over Detroit (41-43) as a 15.5-point favorite. The Pistons host Games Three and Four tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Detroit has not been able to put up much of a fight without their best offensive option in Blake Griffin who is likely to miss the third game in this series. The Pistons made only 37.4% of their shots on Wednesday. Over their last five games, Detroit is scoring only 99.2 PPG while shooting 39.9% from the field as opposed to their 106.7 PPG scoring average for the season on 43.8% shooting. The Pistons have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a double-digit loss. Detroit was also not competitive in the first game of this series which they lost by a 121-86 score. The Pistons have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing their last two games by double-digits — and this includes them playing their last six games Under the Total after losing their last two games on the road by at least 10 points. Detroit should play better on defense back at home tonight after allowing the Bucks to make 52.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Pistons hold their guests to just 46.0% shooting — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Under is 9-4-1 in Detroit’s last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least 10 points. Now the Bucks go on the road where they have played 48 of their last 77 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Milwaukee has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range overall. And in their last 16 games against fellow Central Division opponents, the Bucks have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Detroit Pistons (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-19 |
Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 209.5 |
|
117-103 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 5:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the San Antonio (560). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (50-35) seized a 2-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 118-108 victory over Denver (55-30) as a 4.5-point favorite. The Spurs host Game Four before this series returns to Denver for Game Five.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Antonio was led by Derrick White who scored 36 points on Thursday. But his effort on the offensive end of the court obscured the great work he did on defense on Jamal Murray who only scored 6 points. The Spurs have stepped up their level of play on defense as of late. They have held their last five opponents to just 100.4 PPG on 44.5% shooting from the field as compared to the 109.0 PPG they allow for the season along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.7%. San Antonio has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Spurs have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, San Antonio has played 32 of their last 52 games Under the Total with the 200 to 209.5 point range. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They are scoring 105.0 PPG over their last five games which is 5.5 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games when playing in San Antonio. 10* NBA Denver-San Antonio TNT-TV Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the San Antonio (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-19 |
Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 221.5 |
|
108-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (555) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (556). THE SITUATION: Portland (55-29) has won five straight games after they won Game Two of this series by a 114-94 score over the Thunder (49-35) on Tuesday. The Thunder return home for the third and fourth game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Oklahoma City has seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Thunder have been struggling to make their 3-pointers as they made just 5 of their 28 shots from downtown on Tuesday. OKC has made only 10 of their 61 3-point shots for an ugly 16.4% clip in the first two games of this series. Now the Thunder return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, OKC has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Portland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Under is also 6-2-1 in the Trail Blazers’ last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now Portland goes on the road where the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Blazers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least 20 points. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and the Under is 25-10-2 in the last 37 games between these two teams played in OKC. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (555) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-19 |
Raptors v. Magic UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
98-93 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (551) and the Orlando Magic (552). THE SITUATION: Toronto (59-25) evened this series at 1-1 on Tuesday with their 111-82 victory over the Magic (43-41) as a 10.5-point favorite. Game Three and Four of this series move to Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors tightened up their 3-point defense — or the Regression Gods paid a visit to Toronto in Game Two as the Magic made only 9 of their 34 (26.5%) shots from behind the arc after nailing 14 of their 29 (48.3%) 3-pointers in their upset win in Game One. The deeper concern for Orlando is that their most reliable scorer, Nikola Vucevic, has been bottlenecked down low by the Toronto combination of Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Vucevic is averaging only 8.5 PPG in this series while shooting just 6 of 21 (28.6%) from the field. The Raptors are an outstanding defensive team that ranked 5th during the regular season in Defensive Rating. Toronto has held their last five opponents to just 101.6 PPG on 41.4% shooting from the field — as compared to the 108.0 PPG they are allowing for the season on 44.8% shooting. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Raptors’ last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in Toronto’s last 4 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Raptors have covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 games on the road — and they have now played 5 straight games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Orlando has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Magic have all played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 36 of the last 52 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Head coach Steve Clifford will focus his team’s bounce-back from Game Two on the defensive end of the court where they ranked 8th in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Orlando has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and in their last 6 games played on Orlando, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. 25* NBA First Round ESPN Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (551) and the Orlando Magic (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-18-19 |
Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 210.5 |
|
108-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the San Antonio Spurs (546). THE SITUATION: Denver (55-29) evened this series at 1-1 on Tuesday with their 114-106 victory over the Spurs (49-35). This series moves to San Antonio for Games Three and Four.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They rallied to win that game by making 48.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Denver now goes on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total — and they have also played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, the Nuggets have played of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Denver has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents. San Antonio has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. The Spurs have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now this team returns home where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have paled 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. San Antonio has been playing better defense as they are allowing only 101.2 PPG over their last five games on 43.8% shooting from the field by their opponents — as compared to their 109.9 PPG and opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.3% for the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points. These two teams have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing in San Antonio. 10* NBA Denver-San Antonio NBA-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the San Antonio Spurs (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-19 |
Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 215.5 |
|
99-120 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (61-22) took a 1-0 lead in this series on Sunday with their dominant 121-86 victory over Detroit (41-42). The Bucks host the second game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons have seen the Under go a decisive 38-16-2 in their last 56 games after a double-digit loss. The Under is also 7-3-1 in Detroit’s last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 33-16-3 in their last 52 games after a point spread loss. And while the Pistons have lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 23 of their last 33 games after losing at least four of their last five games. This team is not likely to have the services of Blake Griffin who has missed five of his last seven games with a left knee injury. Word has spread that he will not be able to play in this series although head coach Dwane Casey is officially claiming he remains day-to-day. Without Griffin, the Pistons lack a reliable first-scoring option. Detroit is making only 41.1% of their shots over their last five games which explains why they are scoring only 100.4 PPG over that span which is over 6 PPG below their season average. The Pistons have played 5 of their last 7 games in the month of April. The Under is also 32-15-4 in Detroit’s last 51 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. The Pistons should play better on defense knowing that they cannot get into a track meet with the Bucks without the services of Griffin. They allowed them to shoot 48.9% from the field on Sunday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 30 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo only played in 23:38 minutes of Game One with that result easily in hand — don’t be surprised if head coach Mike Budenholzer calls off the dogs early in this game to rest his starters for what he hopes will be a long postseason. The Bucks have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing no more than their fourth game in ten days. Milwaukee has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Furthermore, the Bucks play their best defense against familiar Central Division opponents who are making only 41.7% of their shots against them. This translates into only 101.3 PPG from Central Division foes which is far below their 109 PPG scoring average for the season. Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. And in the last 9 meetings between these two teams, the Under is 6-2-1. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-19 |
Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 210 |
Top |
105-114 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (49-34) won the opening game of this series on Saturday with their 101-96 upset win over the Nuggets in the opening game of this series. Denver (54-29) hosts Game Two before the Spurs host Games Three and Four.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Antonio has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Spurs have won four straight games, they have then played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning at least three in a row. San Antonio found success by double-teaming Nikola Jokic in the post and forcing him to pass to open teammates who more often than not missed their open shot — the Nuggets made only 42% of their shots from the field. But the Spurs had their own difficulties on offense with their two leading scorers, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan combining to score only 33 points on 12 of 36 combined shooting. San Antonio has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Spurs have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 11 games against Western Conference opponents, San Antonio has played 10 of these games Under the Total. Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Nuggets have lost three of their last four games, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four. Denver should have better success containing the Spurs scorers who — outside of DeRozan and Aldridge — converted 28 of their 47 shots for a sizzling 60% shooting clip. The Nuggets hold their opponents to just a 44.9% shooting percentage on their home court. Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Under the Total. Expect these trends to continue tonight in Game Two of this series. 25* NBA-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-13-19 |
Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 211.5 |
|
101-96 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (507) and the Denver Nuggets (508). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (48-34) enters the playoffs having won three straight games after their 105-94 win over Dallas on Wednesday as a 14-point favorite. Denver (54-28) snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 99-95 win over Minnesota as a 12.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now, this veteran team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. San Antonio has also played 9 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. And while the Spurs are shooting 47.8% from the field this season, the Nuggets have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 46% of their shots. Denver has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Denver has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nuggets stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the total on their home court — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 4 encounters Under the Total. Look for them to make it five straight Unders tonight. 20* NBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (507) and the Denver Nuggets (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-08-19 |
Texas Tech v. Virginia UNDER 118 |
Top |
77-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (811) and the Virginia Cavaliers (812). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (31-6) reached the National Championship game on Saturday with their 61-51 upset victory over Michigan State as a 2-point underdog. Virginia (34-3) joins them in this showdown with their 63-62 win over Auburn as a 6-point favorite. This game will be played in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis as a neutral court.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We know about the strong defenses both these teams play. Texas Tech leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in that metric. The question is whether the oddsmakers have installed the Total too low with it currently residing in the 118 range. While the Over might look for very tempting to many bettors, don’t take the bait. The Red Raiders allowed only 58.8 PPG this season while limiting their opponents to just 36.8% shooting from the field. Their five NCAA Tournament opponents are scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession rate which is the lowest since mark in the Big Dance since 2006. What makes this Texas Tech defense so tough is their ability to seamlessly switch off as defenders to fight off picks with all five of their players on the court. The Red Raiders have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. Texas Tech has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or underdog of 3 points or less when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, the Red Raiders have played 18 of their last 25 games in the postseason Under the Total — and this includes them playing five of their last six games in the Big Dance Under the Total. Virginia has played 8 of their last 9 road games against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Cavaliers are holding their opponents to just 55.5 PPG this season while limiting these foes to just 38.4% shooting from the field. Texas Tech has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39% or lower. On paper, Virginia has the third highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number in the nation. In practice, the Cavaliers have only matched or eclipsed that number once in their last six games this season (against Purdue). Virginia made 49% of their shots against Auburn which was actually their best shooting effort from the field in their last four games — yet they scored only 63 points. The Cavaliers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a close win by 3 points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Virginia has only scored 28 and 29 points in the first half of their last two contests — and they have then played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after failing to score at least 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Cavaliers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Virginia has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I would not be shocked if one of these teams gets hot with their shooting. However, I do not see both teams torching the nets — and it is much more likely that both teams will struggle to hit baskets with the pressure of winning a National Championship on the line. Both these teams complement their stout defenses with a slow deliberate pace on the offensive end of the court. The strong fundamental play here is with the Under. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (811) and the Virginia Cavaliers (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-06-19 |
Texas Tech v. Michigan State UNDER 133 |
Top |
61-51 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (801) and the Michigan State Spartans (802). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (30-6) reached the Final Four last Saturday with their 75-69 upset victory over Gonzaga as a 5-point underdog. Michigan State (32-6) joined them the next day when they upset Duke by a 68-67 score as a 2.5-point underdog. The Final Four takes place U.S. Bank Stadium on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: In theory, the Red Raiders were facing their biggest defensive challenge of the season against a balanced and dynamic Bulldogs offense last week. In practice, Gonzaga scored at just a 0.97 Points-Per-Possession pace which was just the third time all season that the Bulldogs failed to score at least 1.0 PPG against their opponent. Yet even still, the 42.4% shooting clip that Gonzaga managed against Texas Tech was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage the latter had allowed in their last five games. The Red Raiders are holding their NCAA Tournaments to only 57 PPG. A key to their defense is the play of their rim protector, the 6’8, 250-lb Norense Odiase who is holding opponents to scoring at a minuscule 0.429 Points-Per-Possession in Post-Up plays which is in the 95th percentile in the nation this season. The issue for this Texas Tech team is that their offense tends to stall if Chris Mooney or Davide Moretti are not providing a scoring boost to complement Jarrett Culver. Mooney scored 17 points against Gonzaga but that was his highest scoring output in two months. Moretti made a whopping 62.5% of his 3-pointers in the two games in Anaheim after missing all seven of his 3-pointers in the first two games in the Big Dance. When neither of those players are contributing points, the Red Raiders offense becomes too one-dimensional as they rely on Culver to create shots in isolation. Texas Tech has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Furthermore, the Red Raiders have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Texas Tech has also found more offense by scoring in transition — but they are now facing a Spartans team that did not allow Duke to score a single point in transition last Sunday. The Under is 28-10-1 in Michigan State’s last 39 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Spartans have only allowed 30 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in their last game. Michigan State has held their opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 61.3 PPG while limiting them to only 28.2% shooting from behind the arc. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Spartans’ last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech averages 18.3 seconds per possession which is the 267th slowest in the nation. With the Red Raiders boasting the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation and Sparty not far behind by ranking 9th in the nation in that metric. Points should be hard to come by in this contest. 25* CBB Final Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (801) and the Michigan State Spartans (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-06-19 |
Auburn v. Virginia UNDER 133 |
|
62-63 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (803) and the Virginia Cavaliers (804). THE SITUATION: Virginia (33-3) reached the Final Four last Saturday with their 80-75 victory in overtime against Purdue as a 4.5-point favorite. Auburn (30-9) joined them on Sunday with their 77-71 upset victory in overtime over Kentucky as a 4.5-point underdog. The Final Four takes place on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers reached the 80-point threshold due to a hot second half of shooting and the extra five minutes of overtime to dispatch of the Boilermakers — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Virginia has scored only 30 points in the first half in each of their last two games — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. Virginia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. And in their last 29 games with the Total set in the 130s, the Cavaliers have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Virginia will be looking to slow this game to a crawl — the 59.2 possessions per game they average is the fewest in the country. This low level of possessions helps the Cavs lead the nation by allowing only 55.4 PPG. Virginia is also 3rd in the nation in 3-point defense as their opponents only make 28.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Auburn will shoot tons of 3s — and they have 38.3% of their shots from downtown which is 15th in the nation. But Virginia has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total against teams that make at least 37% of their 3-pointers. The Tigers thrive by making the game chaotic which helps their athletes score buckets in transition — but the Cavaliers' style of play is designed to limit transition opportunities. Virginia does not emphasize crashing the offensive glass as they privilege getting defenders back on defense. They also only turn the ball over in 14.7% of their possessions which is 12th best in the nation. Auburn’s offense tends to stall if they get stuck in a half-court battle. The Tigers made only 43.5% of their shots when playing away from home. The season-ending injury to Chuma Okeke leaves the Tigers without their best scorer inside the arc. Auburn has scored at least 77 points in five straight games — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in five straight games. The Tigers have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: In a battle of conflicting styles of tempo, usually the team that wants to slow down the pace tends to more likely get their way. Virginia will eat time off the clock on offense — especially since Auburn full court press is designed to slow down the initial execution of their opponent’s half-court offense. 10* CBB Auburn-Virginia CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (803) and the Virginia Cavaliers (804). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-19 |
Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
110-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (555) and the Denver Nuggets (556). THE SITUATION: Portland (50-28) enters this game coming off a 116-89 win over Memphis on Wednesday as a 9.5-point favorite. Denver (52-26) comes off a 113-85 win over San Antonio on Wednesday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Portland’s last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Trail Blazers are playing tough on the defensive end of the court as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 43.0% field goal percentage. Portland needs to lean on their defense given the injuries to C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Turkic who takes away a big-time scoring and a beast on the offensive glass for them. The Blazers go back on the road where the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver (52-26) has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Nuggets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Denver is struggling to score points as of late. They are scoring just 101.0 PPG over their last five games on 44.3% shooting from the field which is far below their 110.8 PPG scoring average for the season allowing with a 46.6% field goal percentage. The Nuggets stay at home where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total. Denver has also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, the Nuggets have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents — and in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Denver has played all 6 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has lost their last five encounters with the Nuggets with the last result being a 116-113 loss in Denver back on January 13th. The previous result was a narrow 113-112 loss at home back on November 30th — and the Trail Blazers have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when looking to avenge to straight losses that were decided by 3 points or less. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (555) and the Denver Nuggets (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-04-19 |
Lipscomb v. Texas UNDER 143 |
|
66-81 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bison (727) and the Texas Longhorns (728). THE SITUATION: Texas (20-16) reached the NIT Finals on Tuesday with their 58-44 win over TCU as a 1-point favorite. Lipscomb (29-7) joined them in the Finals of this tournament with their 71-64 victory over Wichita State as a pick ‘em on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns held the Horned Frogs to just 17 points in the first half on Tuesday — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Texas has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. And in their last 57 games after a straight-up win, the Under is 39-17-1. Shaka Smart’s team ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While the Longhorns have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting percentage, they have made only 41.2% of their shots over their last five contests. Texas has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Longhorns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or a favorite of no more than 6 points, Texas has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Lipscomb has played 11 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after a straight up win. Additionally, Lipscomb has played 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game in three days. And in their last 7 games playing on a neutral court, the Bison have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this to be a low-scoring contest. 20* CBB Lipscomb-Texas ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bison (727) and the Texas Longhorns (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-19 |
Texas v. TCU UNDER 138 |
Top |
58-44 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). THE SITUATION: Texas (19-16) reached the Semifinals of the NIT last Wednesday with their 68-55 win over Colorado as a 5-point favorite. TCU (23-13) joins them in the NIT Semifinals care of their 71-58 won over Creighton as a 3.5-point favorite last Tuesday. The way meet in the Madison Square Garden where the Semifinals and Finals of this event take place.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns held the Buffaloes to just 32.7% shooting in their win on Thursday. This is a strong defensive unit for head coach Shaka Smart — they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Under is 38-17-1 in Texas’ last 56 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. And while they held Colorado to just 19 first-half points — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Now the Longhorns go on the road after playing their last three games — and they shoot just 41.5% from the field away from home. Over their last five games, Texas is shooting only 40.2% from the field. They have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. TCU is also playing their first game away from home in their last four contests. The Horned Frogs have played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. And while their victory over the Bluejays was preceded by an 88-72 win over Nebraska, TCU has then played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home by double-digits. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s squad is also very good on the defensive end of the court as they rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after holding Creighton to just 36.2% shooting. The Horned Frogs have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. And in their last 87 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, TCU has played 53 of these games Under the Total — and this includes them playing five of these last seven situations.
FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Longhorns have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Texas is looking to avenge a 69-56 upset loss at home laying 7 points to TCU back on March 9th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. These two teams have played 10 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — expect another low scoring game between these two teams in the third meeting between these Big 12 opponents this season. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-19 |
Michigan State v. Duke UNDER 150.5 |
|
68-67 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (691) and the Duke Blue Devils (692). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (31-6) has won eight straight games after their 80-63 win over LSU on Friday as a 6-point favorite. Duke (32-5) reached the Elite Eight on Friday with their 75-73 win over Virginia Tech as a 7-point favorite. This East regional game takes place in Washington D.C.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go 27-10-1 in their last 38 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. While Michigan State likes to play at a fast pace at times, the bread-and-butter of Tom Izzo teams have been pushing the game into a physical battle of wills. Don’t be surprised if the Spartans slow the pace of this game down. The 90 points they scored on Friday were the most points they scored in their last seven games. Michigan State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Spartans’ last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Duke has seen the Under go 21-8-2 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win. The Blue Devils did shoot 55.4% from the field on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. Duke has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s. The Blue Devils have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. And in their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC, the Under is 7-1-1.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Michigan State ranks 9th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Duke ranks 7th in that category. The Spartans have held their last five opponents to just a 37.5% shooting percentage while the Blue Devils have held their last five opponents to only 39% shooting from the field. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* CBB Michigan State-Duke CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (691) and the Duke Blue Devils (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-19 |
Magic v. Pacers UNDER 206 |
Top |
121-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (537) and the Indiana Pacers (538). THE SITUATION: Orlando (37-39) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 115-98 loss in Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog. Indiana (45-31) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 114-112 loss in Boston last night as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers allowed the Celtics to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last sixteen games. Indiana has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less — and they have played a decisive 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Indiana has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Now this team returns home where they play outstanding defense — their visitors are scoring only 99.9 PPG on low 42.8% shooting from the field. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 22 of their last 30 home games when favored. Furthermore, Indiana has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Pacers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. The Magic average 106.2 PPG — and Indiana has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 106.0 PPG. Orlando should also play harder on the defensive end of the court after they allowed the Pistons to make 53.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last twelve games. The Magic have played 37 of their last 53 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 41 of their last 58 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Orlando has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. The Magic stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And while the Pacers shoot 47.4% from the field, Orlando has played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams who are making at least 46% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana will be looking to avenge a 117-112 loss at home to the Magic back on March 2nd. The Pacers will be looking to bear down on defense after allowing Orlando to make 50.5% of their shots in that game. Indiana has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (537) and the Indiana Pacers (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-19 |
Texas Tech v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
75-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (683) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (684). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (29-6) reached the Elite Eight on Thursday with their 63-44 upset win over Michigan as a 2-point underdog. Gonzaga (33-3) joined them in the Elite Eight with their 72-58 win over Florida State on Thursday as a 7.5-point favorite. This West regional contest takes place in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Raiders absolutely stifled the Wolverines offense in that game as they held them to just a 32.3% shooting percentage while watching them miss 18 of their 19 shot from behind the arc. Texas Tech not only has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation but they rank as the second-best all-time defense according to metrics guru Ken Pomeroy since he started measuring those numbers in 2002. The Red Raiders have held their last five opponents to just 38.0% shooting from the field which has translated into only 62.2 PPG. Texas Tech has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Pack-Line defense that head coach Chris Beard deploys is very difficult to prepare for — and they have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Under is also a decisive 46-21-1 in this team’s last 68 games against teams outside the Big 12 that are less familiar with their defensive schemes. But the concern for this Red Raiders team is their ability to score baskets themselves. Texas Tech scored only 24 points in the first half against a tough Wolverines defense — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They will be facing another outstanding defensive team in the Bulldogs who hold their opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the field. The Red Raiders have played 9 of their last 10 games away from home Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39% or less. Texas Tech has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, the Red Raiders have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Big Dance — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or a favorite of no more than 6 points. The Bulldogs have then top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers in the nation — but they will be challenged by this elite Red Raiders’ defense. Gonzaga’s offense slows down if point guard Josh Perkins has to overcome pesky defensive ball hawks — and Texas Tech has that type of player in Matt Mooney. With their offensive prowess gets most of the attention, the Bulldogs defense is under appreciated as they rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency. With Killian Tillie back in the mix after being out with an injury, a strength of this group is that they have athletic players that can effectively play off switches. The Red Raiders make 47.2% of their shots — but Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that shoot at least 45% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga will want to push the pace to generate scoring opportunities in transition as they play the 7th fastest tempo in the nation. This is why the Total is set in the 130s. The Bulldogs will struggle to score in their half-court sets — but the Red Raiders will also struggle as well. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (683) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-29-19 |
Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 144.5 |
|
73-75 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (669) and the Duke Blue Devils (670). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (26-8) has won four of their last five games with their 67-58 win over Liberty last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite. Duke (31-5) survived a big scare last Sunday to advance to the Sweet Sixteen with their 77-76 win over Central Florida as a 13-point favorite. This East regional matchup takes place in Washington D.C.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 21-7-2 in their last 30 games after a straight-up loss. And while their victory over Central Florida finished Over the 142 point Total, Duke has then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. The Blue Devils have scored 85 and 77 points in their last two games — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. Duke should play better on defense tonight after allowing the Knights to make 48.1% of their shots from the field which was tied for the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last ten games. The Hokies average nine made 3-pointers per game — but the Blue Devils have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who average at least 8 made 3-pointers per game. Duke has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow ACC opponents. Furthermore, the Blue Devils have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored. Virginia Tech has played four straight Unders — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. The Hokies will try to slow this game to a near halt — they rank 332nd in the nation in pace. They are also 9th in the country by allowing only 61.7 PPG. Virginia Tech has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: The first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 77-72 upset win for the Hokies. While that result finished Over the 143 point total set for that contest, the Blue Devils were playing without Zion Williamson — and he probably has an even bigger impact on the defensive end of the court for the Dukies then on offense. These two teams have played 13 of their last 17 meetings Under the Total. 10* CBB Virginia Tech-Duke CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (669) and the Duke Blue Devils (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-29-19 |
Auburn v. North Carolina UNDER 164 |
Top |
97-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:29 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (673) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (674). THE SITUATION: Auburn (28-9) reached the Sweet Sixteen last Saturday with their 89-75 win over Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite. North Carolina (29-6) joined them on Sunday in the Sweet Sixteen with their 81-59 victory over Washington as an 11.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Kansas City for this Midwest region showdown.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Auburn shot 52.5% from the field against the Jayhawks in what was the best shooting effort in their last eighteen games. The Tigers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Auburn has also played 7 of their 11 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. With both these teams loving to play at a fast pace while scoring many of their baskets in transition, it is tempting to think the final score will finish well above the Total. The Tigers get over 20% of their points from transition which places them seventh in the nation in that metric. But head coach Bruce Pearl may decide it is a losing battle to getting into a drag race with the Tar Heels who thrive in transition and are one of the six teams in the country that generate more points than Auburn that way. Duke also scores more points in transition than the Tigers — and Pearl had his team slow things down when they played earlier this season. That contest saw a moderate 71 possessions in that game with the result being a 78-72 win over the Blue Devils. Expect Pearl to slow the pace of this game down as well with the hopes that his team’s 3-point shooting and ability to force turnovers will make the winning difference. North Carolina averages 67 shots per game which translates into 86.0 PPG. Auburn has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams that score at least 84 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 62 shots per game. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are winning at least 80% of their games. And in their last 19 games with the Total set in the 160s, Auburn has played 14 of these games Under the Total. North Carolina has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. The Tar Heels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, North Carolina has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. While the Tar Heels are a high-scoring team, their good play on the defensive end of the court is under-appreciated. North Carolina is 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.1% field goal percentage. But the Tar Heels are only making 44.6% of their shots over their last five contests which is a few notches below their 46.5% mark for the season. Moving forward, North Carolina has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Additionally, the Tar Heels have played 5 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set in the mid-160s for this game, expect Auburn to try to slow things down to keep the Tar Heels offense in check. 25* CBB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (673) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-28-19 |
Florida State v. Gonzaga UNDER 148.5 |
Top |
58-72 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (655) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (656). THE SITUATION: Florida State (29-7) reached the Sweet Sixteen with their 90-62 blowout win over Murray State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (32-3) joined them in the Sweet Sixteen with an 83-71 win over Baylor as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This West regional game is being played in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seminoles shots 50.7% from the field against the Racers on the strength of nailing 11 of their 27 shots (40.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. They are unlikely to replicate that effort tonight against this Bulldogs team that ranks 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Gonzaga is even better in defending the half-court as they rank 7th in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.0% — and they also rank 21st in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 30.5% shooting mark from behind the arc. Despite torching the nets against Murray State, Florida State is making only 42.8% of their shots over their last five games — and they rank just 210th in the nation by making only 33.7% of their 3-pointers. The Seminoles raced out to a 50-34 halftime lead on Saturday in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying at least a 15 point lead at halftime of their last game. That result finished well above the 146.5 point total — but Florida State has then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Bulldogs have an opponents’ field goal percentage of 38.7%, the Seminoles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that do not allow their opponents to make more than 38% of their shots. Additionally, Florida State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. The Bulldogs have given up only 23 and 17 points in the first half of their first two games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. However, it is Gonzaga’s 60-47 loss to Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference championship game which may have borne the fruit for how Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton will have his team play. Admittedly, Hamilton will have his team play at a much faster pace than the crawl that the Gaels usually engage. But Saint Mary’s found success in dropping their guards off ball screens who allowed them to contest 2-point shots that frustrated the Bulldogs. Gonzaga point guard Josh Perkins also was bothered by the Gaels’ pressure they applied against him — and Perkins is susceptible to having very bad games. When that happens, the Zags’ offense can stall. Hamilton has five tall guards with length who can throw at Perkins with pressure to veer the Bulldogs offensive flow off balance. Florida State has the tenth best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation with their outstanding athleticism and length — and Hamilton can play position-less basketball with his one through five players all being able to switch off ball screens. Furthermore, the Seminoles out-rebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Gonzaga has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the West Coast Conference.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game is set in the high-140s because both teams like to play at a quick tempo. But both defenses should have the upper hand in this contest — so expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (655) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (656). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-19 |
Lipscomb v. NC State UNDER 163 |
Top |
94-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (625) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (626). Lipscomb (27-7) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the NIT on Saturday with their 88-69 upset win at UNC-Greensboro as a 2-point underdog. NC State (24-11) joined them in the Quarterfinals with their 78-77 victory over Harvard on Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Lipscomb has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. The Bison has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a victory on the road. This team stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Lipscomb has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Bison led the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They limit their home hosts this season to just 40% shooting from the field. This team will be challenged by the Wolfpack who led the ACC by pulling down 34.9% of their missed shots — but Lipscomb is very good at defending their defensive glass. The Bison are 14th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.4% of their missed shots. Furthermore, the Bison have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 160s. NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when the Total was set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. And while the Wolfpack have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread for three straight contests. NC State shot only 40% from the field in their win over Harvard. Over their last five games, the Wolfpack are making only 40.9% of their shots. They survived the Crimson Tide despite allowing them to make 52.7% of their shots. Yet NC State has played better defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 41.0% shooting clip which is a bit better this than their 43.9% opponents’ field goal percentage for the season. Now the Wolfpack return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 10 home games as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points, NC State has played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is set in the 160s since both these teams play at a fast pace. Despite that up-tempo play in this game, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (625) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-19 |
Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
99-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (576). THE SITUATION: Indiana (45-29) snapped their four-game losing streak last night with their 124-88 upset win over Denver as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Oklahoma City (43-31) has lost five of their last six games after their 115-103 upset loss at Memphis on Monday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Indiana has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 15 games after losing three of their last four games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total. The Pacers made 56.1% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last fourteen contests. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and the Under is 23-7-1 in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The struggling Thunder returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Oklahoma City’s struggles as of late can be attributed to a steep decline on offense: they are last in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency since the All-Star Break. Over their last five games, the Thunder are shooting just 40.4% from the field which has translated into 105.6 PPG with both those numbers far below their 114.3 PPG scoring average for the season on 45.3% shooting from the field. And while their defensive play has also declined since the break, they still are a respectable 9th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency over their last fifteen games. Moving forward, the Under is 36-16-1 in the Thunder’s last 53 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight meetings Under the Total. With Oklahoma City struggling with their baskets, expect a lower-scoring game against this Pacers’ team that plays hard for their head coach Nate McMillan. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-19 |
Oklahoma v. Virginia UNDER 127 |
|
51-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (861) and the Virginia Cavaliers (862). THE SITUATION: Virginia (30-3) has won ten of their last eleven games after they rallied from an anxious first half to dispatch of Gardner Webb by a 71-56 score as a 22-point favorite on Friday. Oklahoma (20-13) comes off a 95-72 upset victory over Mississippi on Friday as a 1-point underdog. This South regional game is being played on a neutral court in Columbia, South Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners made 57.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games while scoring the most points that they have all season. They may not reach half that amount tonight against the Cavs’ difficult Pack-Line defense. Despite Virginia leading the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 27.5% outside the arc, the most effective way to break their defense is to shoot over the Pack-Line from the outside (there is a reason why Tony Bennett’s defense is so good). Oklahoma is unlikely to get the job done here as they are just 168th in the nation by making only 34.5% of their 3-pointers. The Sooners ranked 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while ranking 58th in the nation overall in that metric. This teams also ranks just 66th in the nation amongst power conference foes in Shot Volume that takes into account Offensive Rebounding and Turnover percentages. Oklahoma has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Sooners have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while their win over Ole Miss finished Over the 142 point total, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Oklahoma has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Virginia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams with the Sooners struggling to score baskets against the outstanding Cavaliers defense. 10* CBB Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (861) and the Virginia Cavaliers (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-19 |
Washington v. North Carolina UNDER 151 |
Top |
59-81 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (867) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (868). THE SITUATION: Washington (27-8) has won three of their last four games with their 78-61 upset victory over Utah State on Friday as a 3.5-point underdog. North Carolina (28-6) has won nine of their last ten games with their 88-73 victory over Iona on Friday as a 24.5-point favorite. This Midwest regional game is being played in Columbus, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies made 49% of their shots against the Aggies which was the best shooting mark in the last five games. That was an outlier effort for this challenged team on offense — Washington ranks 109th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking 102nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. Overall, the Huskies score 70.1 PPG on 45% shooting from the field — but those numbers drop to just 63.4 PPG along with a 41.0% shooting mark when playing away from home. Washington has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game finished Over the 136 point total, the Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. What this Washington team thrives at is playing defense as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Senior guard Matisse Thybulle may be the best defensive player in college basketball. Head coach Mike Hopkins was a long time assistant of Jim Boeheim at Syracuse so this team deploys a similar 2-3 matchup-zone which can be very difficult to prepare for in tournament action on the weekend with the short turn-around time. The Huskies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Washington has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. North Carolina made 46.7% of their shots over the Gaels on Friday which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. The Tar Heels are only making 43% of their shots over their last five games. North Carolina has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 15 points. The Tar Heels did control the glass against Iona as they pulled down 52 rebounds. The vulnerability of the 2-3 zone is that it leaves open space in front of the basket for offensive rebounds. Even if North Carolina gets plenty of second-chance opportunities, it helps the Under since it extends possession length. The Tar Heels have played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after rebounding at least 52 boards in their last contest. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. What is underappreciated about this North Carolina team this season is just how good they are playing on defense. Roy Williams’ team ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. This strong defensive play has helped the Tar Heels plate 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Furthermore, North Carolina has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Washington will try to slow this game down to limit possessions. With the Total creeping into the 150s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (867) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-23-19 |
Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 140 |
|
50-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:55 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (845) and the Michigan State Spartans (846). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (29-6) has won six straight games with their 76-65 win over Bradley on Thursday as an 18-point favorite in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota (22-13) has won three of their last four games after they pulled the upset over Louisville on Thursday by an 86-76 score as a 5-point underdog. This East regional game is being played in Des Moines.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Gophers made 50% of their shots against the Cardinals which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last fifteen games. They also made eleven 3-pointers in a rare outbreak of effective 3-point shooting despite their 31.5% shooting mark from behind the arc when playing away from home — that road mark ranks just 274th in the nation. Minnesota wants to get to the free throw line — they led the Big Ten with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 39.9%. But Michigan State was second in the Big Ten with an opponent’s FTA: FGA rate of 26.4%. The Gophers have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win. Minnesota has also played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Gophers have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 13 games against fellow Big Ten opponents, Minnesota has played 9 of these games Under the Total. Michigan State has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow Big Ten rivals. The Under is also 25-10-1 in their last 36 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Spartans have seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral court Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total. Michigan State looked tired on Thursday in their win over Bradley — and both teams have thin benches at this point of the season. The pace will likely be slow between these two familiar foes. 10* CBB Minnesota-Michigan State O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (845) and the Michigan State Spartans (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-23-19 |
Murray State v. Florida State UNDER 148 |
Top |
62-90 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). THE SITUATION: Murray State (28-4) pulled the upset in the Round of 64 with their 83-64 win over Marquette as a 3-point underdog on Thursday. Florida State (28-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-69 victory over Vermont as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. This West regional game takes place in Hartford.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers shocked a strong scoring team in the Golden Eagles by holding them to just 32.4% shooting from the field. While Ja Morant gets all the headlines for this team as he pushes up his NBA draft stock, what is underappreciated about this upstart mid-major is their strong half-court defense. Head coach Matt McMahon’s team ranks 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1% — and they are also 3rd in the nation with their opponents making just 28.4% of their 3-pointers. When playing away on the road or neutral courts, the Racers’ opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45% is 6th best in the country. The Seminoles can struggle with their shooting as their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% ranks 180th in the nation — and they make only 33.4% of their 3-pointers which is 223rd in the nation. Murray State has played 17 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after an upset victory. The Racers have also played 5 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points. Additionally, Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. And while the Racers made 9 of their 18 shots from behind the arc against Marquette, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers. Murray State does not rely on the 3 — they are making just 34.8% of their 3-pointers which is 149th in the nation. Led by Morant’s ability to create his own shot or dish to an open teammate, the Racers rank 5th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc. But Morant and this team may face their most difficult test of the season against the deep Seminoles team loaded with long and athletic defenders. Florida State is 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles’ defense is outstanding inside the arc as they hold their opponents to just a 46.0% field goal percentage with their 2-pointers which is 27th best in the country — and that mark lowered to a measly 41.9% clip in ACC play. Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while their game with Vermont finished Over the 133 point total, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, the Seminoles have played 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total played on a neutral court with the number set in the 140s. And while Murray State outscores their opponents by +15.6 PPG, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +12.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Morant is a star in the making — but he will be harassed by a horde of tough defenders from Florida State who will try to coax him to rely on his teammates. The Seminoles will also struggle to score in their half court offense. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-19 |
Bradley v. Michigan State UNDER 134.5 |
|
65-76 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (775) and the Michigan State Spartans (776). THE SITUATION: Bradley (20-14) won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament with their 57-54 win over Northern Iowa as a 2-point favorite back on March 10th. Michigan State (28-6) has won five straight games after they won the Big Ten tournament last Sunday with their 65-60 upset win over Michigan as a 1-point underdog. This Eastern regional game is being played on a neutral court in Des Moines.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves eked out this game despite scoring a mere 4 points in the last ten minutes of the first half against the Panthers. Bradley has scored only 15 and 25 points in the first half of their last two games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Braves are in the bottom third in the nation in Offensive Efficiency as their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranks 244th in the nation. While they did finish second in the Missouri Valley Conference in offensive rebounding, they only pulled down 26.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 300th in the nation by making only 46.7% of their shots inside the arc. This spells huge trouble against a Spartans team that is third in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 41.3% shooting percentage inside the arc. Bradley is not likely to have much success shooting from outside either as Sparty limited their Big Ten opponents to just a 30.5% mark from behind the arc. Over their last five games, the Braves scored only 61.2 PPG. But this Bradley team plays solid defense as they ranked fourth in the MVC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they led the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.7%. The Braves held their last five opponents to just a 38.7% shooting clip with their last three opponents scoring no more than 58 points. Bradley has played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in at least two straight games. Overall, the Braves have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 41.1% — and Michigan State has played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road against teams that do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. Bradley has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage over 80%. The Braves have also played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total — and this includes the playing nine of their last ten games Under the Total on a neutral court. Michigan State has seen the Under go 25-9-1 in their last 35 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Spartans have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. This Michigan State team ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while the Spartans also score 78.8 PPG, Bradley has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 77 PPG. The Spartans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: I lean to Michigan State to win in this game but I consider it Fool’s Gold to lay close to 20 points — especially in the NCAA Tournament. The Under is the far better play in this situation. A big challenge Tom Izzo now has is managing his thin bench after the season-ending injury to Kyle Ahrens in the Big Ten championship game leaving the team with only two reliable bench players. Don’t be surprised when Izzo has his team take their foot off the gas pedal to conserve energy for their next game on Saturday. 20* CBB Bradley-Michigan State CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (775) and the Michigan State Spartans (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-19 |
Minnesota v. Louisville UNDER 137 |
Top |
86-76 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (21-13) enters the NCAA Tournament looking to bounce-back from a 76-49 loss to Michigan in the Semifinals of the Big Ten tournament last Saturday as a 9-point underdog. Louisville (20-13) has lost two of their last three games with their 83-70 loss to North Carolina last Thursday as a 7-point underdog. This East regional game is being played in Des Moines, Iowa.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Rick Pitino should have his team play tough defense after they allowed the Wolverines to make 51.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Minnesota has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while that game with Michigan finished below the 131 point total, the Golden Gophers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Under the Total. Pitino has this team playing better defense to close out the regular season (despite getting stung by Michigan). They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.9% field goal percentage — and those last five opponents made just 32.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Overall, Minnesota has the 40th best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. But this team can struggle to score points especially on the road where they make only 40.7% of their shots which translates into just 63.6 PPG which is over 7 PPG below their season average. The Golden Gophers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. Louisville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Chris Miller has this team playing a tough pack-line defense that has the Cardinals ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Louisville will be protecting the rim in this game and daring this Gophers team that makes just 32.1% of their 3-pointers (285th in the nation) to shooting from the outside. The Cardinals have held their last five opponents to just a 37.5% shooting percentage. But Louisville is only making 40.3% of their shots over that span. This team can struggle versus zone defenses that Pitino may have his team deploy at times. The Cardinals rely heavily on 3-point shooting as 43.7% of their shots from the field come from downtown (55th in the nation). But Minnesota defense the perimeter well as they ranked 27th in the nation by limiting their opponents to taking just 33.7% of their shots from behind the arc (27th in the nation) — and only 29.1% of their opponent's points come from 3s. Furthermore, Louisville has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams play a little slower than the national average of 17.5 seconds per possession. Look for Minnesota to play very physical against this Louisville team that is small and can be a bit soft. This should be a grinding low-scoring game to open the Round of 64. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-19 |
Arizona State v. St. John's OVER 152.5 |
|
74-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (713) and the St. John’s Red Storm (714). THE SITUATION: St. John’s (21-12) limps into the NCAA Tournament having lost four of their last five games after their 86-54 loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament last Thursday as a 4-point underdog. Arizona State (22-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 79-75 loss in overtime to Oregon as a 3-point favorite in the Pac-12 tournament. This First Four game is being played on a neutral court in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arizona State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. The Sun Devils are playing their third game since last Thursday which could lead to tired legs on defense — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days. Arizona State plays at a quick pace — they averaged 16.3 seconds per possession which was the second fastest in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils average 77.8 PPG on offense. They also draw plenty of fouls which tends to help the Over since it allows for points to be scored when the clock is stopped. Arizona State’s opponents have committed at least 23 personal fouls in three straight games — and they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after seeing their opponent commit at least 22 personal fouls in two straight contests. The Sun Devils also foul their opponent in bunches — they ranked 301st in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 38.6% with that mark rising to a 39.6% clip in Pac-12 play. When playing away from home, this Arizona State foul rate rises even more to a 41.2% mark. St. John’s made 74.0% of their free throws in Big East play so they have a great potential to generate plenty of points from the line. Additionally, the Sun Devils have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or a favorite of no more than 3 points. St. John’s has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Red Storm has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Chris Mullin’s team will be happy to engage in Arizona State’s pace as they played at the twelfth fastest tempo in the nation by averaging just 15.4 seconds per possession. St. John’s average 77.5 PPG. The Red Storm have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a pick ‘em or an underdog of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams score over 77 PPG despite having effective field goal percentages outside the Top-100 in the nation. With both teams playing fast with likely plenty of free throw attempts for both sides and with small-ball lineups likely to be deployed (St. John’s plays four guards in their starting lineup), expect a higher scoring game. 10* CBB Arizona State-St.John’s tru-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (713) and the St. John’s Red Storm (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-19 |
Belmont v. Temple OVER 155 |
Top |
81-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). THE SITUATION: Belmont (26-5) was upset in the Finals of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament back on March 9th by a 77-65 score as a 2-point favorite. Temple (23-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 80-74 upset loss to Wichita State as a 1.5-point favorite. The First Four games take place on a neutral court in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins shot only 39.1% from the field which was the worst field goal percentage for them in their last 15 games — their second-lowest shooting mark over that span was much higher at 47.3%). This uber-efficient Belmont team is 3rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%. They execute Houston Rockets offensive basketball by shunning midrange jump shots for 3-pointers or shots at the rim: they are 2nd in the nation with a 59.5% shooting percentage inside the arc while also averaging 10.5 made 3-pointers per game. They also play at a fast pace as their 15.9 seconds per possession average is the 29th fastest in the nation — and that tempo increased in conference play where they averaged 15.2 seconds per possession. This up-tempo attack generated 64 shot attempts per game — and the Owls have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 62 shots per game. The Bruins have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while Belmont has still covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after covering five or six of their last seven games. The Bruins should find plenty of success attacking the thin Temple frontline that is allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their shots inside the arc which was second-to-last in the American Athletic Conference. Belmont averages a robust 87.4 PPG this season — and they have played 33 of their last 52 games Over the Total when favored. And while they have played three straight Unders, the Bruins have then played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Belmont has also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points — and they have played their last three games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points on a neutral court. Temple made only 39.1% of their shots in their loss to the Shockers on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Owls has the third best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the AAC while averaging 74.8 PPG for the year. Their trio of starting guards, Shizz Alston, Jr., Quinton Rose, and Nate Pierre-Louis combined to average 49.5 PPG together. Temple has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while this is just their second game since March 9th, the Owls have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing no more than their second game in seven days. Furthermore, while Temple has won six of their last eight games, they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Owls finished 3rd in the conference by making 35.3% of their 3-point shots — and this Bruins team allowed their OVC opponents to make 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc which was 9th in the conference. Belmont is an elite passing team that is 7th in the nation by assisting on 61.9% of their made field goals — and they average a 20 Assists-Per-Game. Temple has played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that average at least 16 Assists-Per-Game. The Owls have also played 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Over is 16-4-1 in their last 21 games played on a neutral court — and they have played four of their last five games Over the Total when playing as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: These are two mediocre defensive teams. While Belmont had the 3rd best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Ohio Valley Conference, they were just 127th in that metric for the entire season. Temple ranked 7th in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking 90th overall for the entire season. The Owls also played at the third fastest pace in a conference that has many teams play at a crawl. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 230 |
Top |
110-88 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (508). THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-21) has won two of their last three games with their upset 106-104 win in Houston on Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. Oklahoma City (42-27) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 108-106 upset loss in Indiana as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. This team travels to Oklahoma City likely without the benefit of Kevin Durant who has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight’s game with an ankle injury — and that takes away a big piece of the Golden State offensive attack. As it is, the Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 34 of their last 51 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Golden State has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total in their last four contests against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 19 games in the month of March where this team starts to get in playoff mode on the defensive end of the court, Golden State has played 15 of these games Under the Total. Oklahoma City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is playing lower scoring games on both ends of the court as of late. Over their last five games, they are averaging 110.2 PPG on 41.5% shooting from the field while allowing 106.4 PPG on 41.5% shooting — those numbers are all lower than their 114.9 PPG with a 45.7% shooting mark on offense and their 110.9 PPG and 45.8% opponent’s field goal mark on defense for the season. The Thunder return home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 18 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, OKC has played 15 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State is looking to avenge an embarrassing 123-95 loss at home to Oklahoma City back on November 21st — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss at home. These two teams have played 17 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total which includes 5 of 6 Unders when playing in Oklahoma City. 25* NBA Saturday Prime-Time ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 135 |
Top |
57-64 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (21-12) reached the Finals of the Mountain West Conference tournament with their 65-56 upset win over Nevada yesterday as a 9-point underdog yesterday. Utah State (27-6) joined them with their 85-60 blowout win over Fresno State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. The MWC tournament takes place in the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas so this is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aztecs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. San Diego State has also played a decisive 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Aztecs made only 42.6% of their shots last night in their victory — yet that was the best shooting effort for them in their last four contests. San Diego State had made only 34.6% and 29.8% of their shots in their previous two contests — and they are shooting just 39.6% from the field over their last five games. This team is very susceptible to experience long scoring droughts. They rank 8th in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as they struggle to shoot the basketball: they also rank 8th in the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. Much of the Aztecs’ offense comes from second-chance opportunities as they rank 4th in the conference by pulling down 28.4% of their missed shots. But good luck with that against this Aggies team that leads the MWC by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 22.8% of their missed shots. San Diego State does play strong defense as they rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have limited their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Aggies have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the MWC. They have made at least 48.5% of their shots in three straight games while scoring at least 81 points in four straight games. But Utah State has then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. And while the Aggies have played four straight Overs, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Furthermore, Utah State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games this season with the Aggies winning the last meeting by a 70-54 score on their home court back on February 26th. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
CS-Fullerton v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 138.5 |
|
64-58 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the CS-Fullerton Mustangs (857) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (858). THE SITUATION: CS-Fullerton (15-16) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with their 75-71 win in overtime over Cal-Davis as a 1.5-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (22-9) has won five of their last six games with their 71-68 win over CS-Northridge as a 5-point favorite yesterday. The Big West tournament is being played at the Honda Center in Anaheim so it is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: CS-Fullerton has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. This is the Mustangs third game since last Saturday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing their third game in a week. Additionally, this team has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 6 straight games on a neutral court Under the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em. UC-Santa Barbara has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win over a Big West rival. And while the Gauchos made 7 of their 14 shots from behind the arc, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers in their last game. Moving forward, UC-Santa Barbara has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Gauchos have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite. Furthermore, UC-Santa Barbara makes only 43.5% of their shots when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Mustangs will be looking to avenge an 82-67 loss at UC-Santa Barbara back on February 23rd. CS-Fullerton has played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 20* CBB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the CS-Fullerton Mustangs (857) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-19 |
UC-Davis v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
71-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (11-19) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 71-70 upset loss at home to UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. CS-Fullerton (14-16) has lost three of their last four games with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Hawai’i as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Big West tournament is played on a neutral court at the Honda Center in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 38-16-1 in Cal-Davis’ last 55 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 42-15-1 in their last 58 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies got upset in that game despite them making 52.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Cal-Davis ranks only 8th in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also score only 63.7 PPG when playing away from home while making just 41.9% of their shots. But the Aggies should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing UC-Riverside to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last six games. Cal-Davis ranks 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. Additionally, the Aggies have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Titans have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and this includes them playing five of their last six games Under the Total when that loss to a conference rival took place on their home court. Furthermore, Fullerton has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after losing three of their last four games. The Titans play very good defense as they rank 2nd in the Big West in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage when playing on the road. But Fullerton only ranks 7th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making just 42.8% of their shots over their last five games. The Titans have played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Fullerton will be looking to avenge a 66-59 loss to Cal-Davis back on March 2nd. The Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they failed to score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Big West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-19 |
Creighton v. Xavier UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). THE SITUATION: Creighton (18-13) has won five straight games after their 91-78 win over DePaul as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Xavier (17-14) has won six of their last seven games with their 81-68 victory over St. John’s as a 2-point favorite. These two teams meet in the Quarterfinals of the Big East taking place at Madison Square Garden which makes this a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Musketeers winning streak over the last month or so has been due to significantly improved play on the defensive end of the court. Xavier has held their last five opponents to just a 42% field goal percentage. The Musketeers have played 7 of the last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Xavier has also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Musketeers made 51.9% of their shots against the Red Storm which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But Xavier makes only 44.9% of their shots away from home. The Bluejays allow their opponents to make 45.8% of their shots — but the Musketeers have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Xavier has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Additionally, the Musketeers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Creighton has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory on their home court. And while the Bluejays have covered the point spread in five straight games with the last two contests being in games where they were favored, Creighton has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering their last two games as a favorite. Furthermore, the Bluejays have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Creighton is very dependent on making 3-point shots — they are 2nd in the Big East with 48.7% of their field goal attempts being from behind the arc. But while the Bluejays are making 39.6% of their 3-point shots, that clip drops to a 35.8% mark when playing away from home. Creighton has played 21 of their last 31 games on the road Under the Total against conference opponents. The Bluejays have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will also have revenge on their minds after seeing Xavier split their two regular-season games with a 64-61 upset win as a 1-point underdog back on February 13th. The Bluejays have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by no more than 3 points. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Texas A&M UNDER 133.5 |
|
52-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (657) and the Texas A&M Aggies (658). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (9-22) enters the SEC tournament coming off an 80-59 loss an LSU on Saturday as a 13-point underdog. Texas A&M (13-17) has lost three of their last four games after their 92-81 loss at Mississippi State last Saturday as an 11-point underdog. The SEC tournament takes place in Bridgestone Arena — home of the Nashville Predators — so this is a neutral court game for both teams with Vandy enjoying a geographical advantage.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commodores have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Vanderbilt has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a loss where they failed to score at least 70 points. The Commodores made only 41.2% of their shots against the Tigers which was still tied for the best shooting effort in their last four games. Vanderbilt has the SEC’s worst scoring offense in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 38.5% of their shots in their last five games. The Commodores make only 37.8% of their shots on the road which is translating into just 60.2 PPG. The Under is also 25-10-2 in Vandy’s last 37 games played on a neutral court. The Commodores have also played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog. Texas A&M has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival. The Aggies have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Texas A&M made 46.7% of their shots in their win against the Bulldogs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. This team ranks 11th in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.7% of their shots over their last five games. The Aggies also allowed Mississippi State to make 52.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last ten contests. That game finished Over the 139.5 point total — yet Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, the Aggies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Vanderbilt will be looking to avenge a 64-57 loss to the Aggies in College Station in the only meeting between these two teams back on March 2nd. The Commodores have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on their minds — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 20* CBB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (657) and the Texas A&M Aggies (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
Florida Atlantic v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 134 |
Top |
56-57 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). THE SITUATION: FAU (17-14) has lost their last two games with their 76-61 loss at Marshall as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (19-12) snapped their two-game losing streak last Wednesday with their 72-69 upset win at Florida Atlantic as a 2-point favorite. The Conference USA tournament takes place in Frisco, Texas which makes this a true neutral home court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, FAU experienced a massive scoring drought in the final ten minutes in the first half of their game with the Thunder Herd as they managed only 4 points — and they went into halftime with just 28 points scored overall to neutralize their fast start. The Owls have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half of their last game. Scoring is a problem for this team as they rank 11th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Conference USA — and they are making only 40.4% of their shots over their last five games. This team only makes 40.5% of their shots when playing away from home. FAU is playing very good defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 37.6% shooting. The Owls rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. FAU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Louisiana Tech made 47.9% of their shots against the stout Owls’ defense which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But this Bulldogs team is just 9th in Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.9% of their shots on the road. But this Louisiana Tech team also plays strong defense as they rank 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their conference foes to a 41.7% field goal percentage. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: FAU won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-61 score back on January 31st — and the Owls have played 10 of the last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a close by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
California v. Colorado UNDER 139 |
|
51-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (641) and the Colorado Buffaloes (642). THE SITUATION: California (8-22) has won their last three games with their 64-59 win at Stanford last Thursday as an 11-point underdog. Colorado (19-11) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 78-67 win over USC last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: California has played 6 of the last 8 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win over a Pac-12 rival. The Golden Bears are playing better basketball because of their improved play on the defensive end of the court. They held the Cardinal to just a 35.9% shooting mark — and they have limited three of their last four opponents to no better than a 41.8% shooting percentage. Cal’s last five opponents are making just 43.3% of their shots. But the Bears struggle to score baskets. They are 12th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have made just 40.6% of their shots against conference opponents. Furthermore, Cal makes only 41.8% of their shots away from home — and they are making just 41.8% of their shots over their last five games. The Golden Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, Cal has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog. Colorado has played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Their three-game winning streak coincided with all three games being played on their home court. The Buffaloes have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home. And while they have scored 78 and 93 points in their last two games, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. But now this team goes back on the road for the first time since February 23rd where they are making just 42.9% of their shots. While the Buffaloes’ offense may not travel outside Boulder, their defense should as they rank 4th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.5% field goal percentage. Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. The Buffaloes have also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado won the lone meeting between these two teams back on January 24th by a 68-59 score in Berkeley. Cal has played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home to their opponent. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. 20* CBB Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (641) and the Colorado Buffaloes (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
CS Sacramento v. Northern Arizona UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
72-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Sacramento State (14-15) enters the Big Sky Tournament coming off an 86-68 loss at home to Montana last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Northern Arizona (10-20) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 89-78 upset win at Northern Colorado as a 13-point underdog. The Big Sky tournament is played in Century Link Arena in Boise, Idaho which makes it a true neutral court for both these teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Brian Katz will want his team to improve their efforts on defense after allowing the Grizzlies to make 59.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Hornets play pretty good defense away from home as they hold those opponents to just a 44.9% field goal percentage. Sacramento State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game with Montana finished above the 137 point Total, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The bigger challenge for this team will be scoring baskets as they rank ninth in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 41.3% of their shots over their last five games — and they average just 65.3 PPG along with a 41.4% field goal percentage when playing away from home. Furthermore, the Hornets have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Northern Arizona made only 43.7% of their shots on Saturday and still pulled off the upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and yet that was still the best shooting effort for this team in their last three games. The Lumberjacks are making only 41.8% of their shots from the field in their last five games. But this team is playing solid on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to only a 43.5% field goal percentage. Northern Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games on the road Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. Now this team stays away from home for the fourth straight game where they are making just 43.7% of their shots. The Lumberjacks are just seventh in the Big Sky conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Northern Arizona has played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. The Lumberjacks have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento State will be motivated by revenge from a 78-66 upset loss to Northern Arizona as a 7-point home favorite back on February 16th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when looking to avenge an upset loss to their opponent as a home favorite in their last encounter. These two teams have played their 6 straight meetings Under the Total. Lastly, the cherry on top for this situation is that it will be played at 9:30 AM local time. While these early tip-off situations should never be automatic plays since the tendency for teams to be a bit groggy at the unconventional early hour, this still represents only another piece of evidence. In these circumstances, it certainly helps in making a strong Under play even better. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-19 |
St. Mary's v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
60-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (21-11) has won six of their last seven games to reach the West Coast Conference tournament championship game with their 69-62 loss to San Diego last night as a 4.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (30-2) comes off a 100-74 win win over Pepperdine last night as a 24-point favorite. This tournament is being played at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas which makes it a true neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 59.7% of their shots last night which was the sixth straight games where they made at least 52.8% of their shots. Gonzaga had 26 team assists against the Wave last night as they assisted on a whopping 70.3% of their made field goals — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 team assists. The Bulldogs have also played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. Gonzaga enjoyed a 47-26 halftime lead last night — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by at least 20 points — and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Gonzaga has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. This Bulldogs team has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the nation — but they are also an underrated defensive team. They were lax at times in the first two months of the season in their effort — and they were exposed in back-to-back losses to Tennessee and North Carolina. In West Coast Conference play, the Zags limited their opponents to score at just a 0.863 Points-Per-Possession clip. Gonzaga also ranks 7th run the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just of 44.1% — and that is particularly important when facing this Gaels’ team that relies on their shooting. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and this includes them played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Head coach Mark Few should have his team focused on playing better on the defensive end of the court after they allowed Pepperdine to make 44.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last nine games. Saint Mary’s made 53.1% of their shots last night in their victory over the Toreros which was the highest shooting mark they have enjoyed in their last nine contests. The Under is then 35-14-2 in the Gaels’ last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 54-24-1 in their last 79 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Saint Mary’s has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. This Gaels’ team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the West Coast Conference. Moving forward, Saint Mary’s has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga swept the first two meetings between these two teams in the regular season with Saint Mary’s scoring at just a 0.67 PPP and 0.87 PPP rate. The Gaels’ defense improved in the second game after allowing the Zags to torch them for a 1.45 PPP scoring rate. Saint Mary’s improved to see the Bulldogs score at a 1.10 PPP mark which, while still efficient, was below their season average. The Gaels have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least double revenge. Lastly, these two teams have played 20 of their last 26 meetings Under the Total. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-19 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 126 |
Top |
55-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). THE SITUATION: Oregon (18-12) has won three straight games with their 72-61 win at Washington State last Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. Washington (24-6) has won their last two games after they defeated Oregon State on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Oregon has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after winning their last two games. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring only 64.0 PPG on low 40.9% shooting. But the Ducks hold their home hosts to just a 42.9% shooting mark from the field. Head coach Dana Altman’s team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12 — and they have held their last vet opponents to just 41.6% shooting. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Oregon has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Huskies have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They shot 54% from the field against the Beavers which was the best shooting margin in their last ten games. Washington is only making 44.9% of their shots over their last five games despite that strong shooting effort on Wednesday. The Huskies stay at home where hold their guests to just 59.7 PPG on low 38.8% shooting from the field. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Huskies have the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12.
FINAL TAKE: Washington won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 24th when they pulled off a 61-56 upset win in Eugene as a 2.5-point underdog. That game finished below the 132 point Total which made it 6 straight Unders between these two teams. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-19 |
Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 136.5 |
|
63-75 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (649) and the Michigan State Spartans (650). THE SITUATION: Michigan (26-4) has won their last two games after losing at home to the Spartans by a 77-70 score back on February 24th despite being a 4.5-point favorite in that game. The Wolverines come off an impressive 69-62 win at Maryland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Michigan State (24-6) has won six of their last seven games after their 91-76 win over Nebraska as a 13.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The winner of this game clinches at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Michigan State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 77-70 score as a 4.5-point underdog back on February 24th. That game started at a blistering pace by both sides with the Spartans racing out to a 27-20 lead in the first ten minutes of that game. But the shots began to stop falling and the pace of the game slowed down considerably over the final 30 minutes of that contest with both teams scoring just 50 points apiece. The Spartans come off a big win over Nebraska before this rematch — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 23-7-1 in Michigan State’s last 31 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Spartans’ last 9 games at home — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Michigan will likely be without Charles Matthews again for this game which takes away their third-leading scorer. They have had since Sunday to prepare for this game and to slow down the Spartans offensive attack that made 50% of their shots against them. Only one other team has made at least 50% of their shots against this Wolverines team this season. Michigan has also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. And in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court, the Under is 8-2-1.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan and Michigan State have the second and third best Adjusted Defensive Efficiencies in the nation. Look for this rematch to play out like the final 30 minutes of their first encounter. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (649) and the Michigan State Spartans (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-19 |
Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh UNDER 136.5 |
|
53-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (605) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (606). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (13-17) has lost six straight games with their 64-62 loss at home to Clemson on Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. Pittsburgh (12-18) has lost thirteen straight contests after their 76-63 loss at Miami (FL) as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. That game finished below the 133 point Total for that contest — so Notre Dame has now played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the month of March. Now the Fighting Irish go back on the road where they are just 2-9 this season while making just 39.9% of their shots. Notre Dame has played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Fighting Irish have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Head coach Mike Brey’s team is uncharacteristically ineffective at shooting the basketball this season. Notre Dame is 12th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making just 38.3% of their shots over their last five games. Pittsburgh is hitting only 37.7% of their shots over their last five games — and they rank 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Panthers made 43.7% of their shots in their loss to the Hurricanes which, unfortunate for them, was the best offensive shooting for them in their last four games. Pitt has played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. Now this team returns home where they are 10-7 while playing good defense as they hold their opponents to just a 39.5% shooting percentage. The Panthers have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that struggle to score points. 20* CBB Saturday Afternoon O/U Tip-Off with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (605) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-19 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 236 |
Top |
105-122 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (565) and the Golden State Warriors (566). THE SITUATION: Denver (43-21) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 115-99 win in Los Angeles over the Lakers as a 5-point favorite. Golden State (44-20) looks to bounce-back from their 128-95 loss to Boston on Tuesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 45.9% of their shots against the Lakers which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. Denver has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Denver stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Nuggets have launched at least 92 shots in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. Moving forward, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Nuggets have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 230s. Golden State saw the Celtics make 51% of their shots (along with 41.2% of their 3-pointers) which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 29 games. The Warriors should use that disappointing effort to make some adjustments on the defensive end of the court including choosing a better way for DeMarcus Cousins to position himself against opponent’s 3-point shooting. Golden State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. This is the time of the season where the Warriors start getting more serious about their defense as they have played 25 of their last 31 games Under the Total in the month of March. Additionally, Golden State has seen the Under go 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. And while Golden State shoots 48.8% from the field, Denver has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams that are making at least 46% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets should be focused on playing better defense against the Warriors after surrendering a whopping 142 points in their 31-point loss to them at home in the Pepsi Center back on January 15th. With this game playing a big role in which of these two teams will finish as the top seed in the Western Conference — and with the home court advantage in the playoffs that this position earns — expect this to be a hard fought game on the defensive end of the court. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (565) and the Golden State Warriors (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-19 |
Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 134 |
Top |
72-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (18-12) has lost two straight upset losses in a row after their 83-76 loss at Florida International as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (17-12) has won three of their last four games after their 60-54 upset win at North Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-10-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total off a road loss to a conference rival. Louisiana Tech has the third-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in Conference USA — but they also have just the 9th best offense in terms of that metric. They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% shooting percentage. Now they go on the road where they are scoring only 69.0 PPG while making just 41.6% of their shots from the field. The Under is a decisive 20-5-1 in their last 26 games on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Florida Atlantic has seen the Under go 21-9-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Owls have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset victory. This will be FAU’s second game in their last eight days — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing just for the second time in eight days. The Owls sport the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Conference USA. They have held their last five opponents to just a 36.6% shooting percentage. But FAU struggles to score baskets as they rank 12th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. The Owls return home where they hold their opponents to only 63.7 PPG on low 40.4% shooting. Yet FAU only makes 42.3% of their shots at home. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and the Under is also 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Owls have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is looking to avenge a 69-61 loss hosting FAU back on January 31st when they were 4.5-point home favorites in that game. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and this includes them playing nine of these last eleven situations Under the Total. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-19 |
Missouri v. Georgia UNDER 135.5 |
|
64-39 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Missouri Tigers (781) and the Georgia Bulldogs (782). THE SITUATION: Missouri (13-15) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 78-63 win over South Carolina as a 2-point favorite. Georgia (11-18) snapped a nine-game losing streak on Saturday as well with their 61-55 win at Florida as an 11.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers broke out of their slump by shooting 47.4% from the field which was the best shooting mark for them in their last twelve contests. But Missouri has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win at home against an SEC foe. The Tigers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Mizzou has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. This team has lacked offensive punch with their expected leading scorer Jontay Porter was declared out the season with an ACL injury. Head coach Cuonzo Martin has a young team with four of his guards in his rotation being freshman or sophomores. The Tigers are 13th in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.2% of their shots over their last five games. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 61.9 PPG on 41.5% shooting from the field. Missouri has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Georgia has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs have made at least 52.1% of their shots in three straight games after they made 56.1% of their shots against the Gators in what was the best shooting effort in their last ten contests. But Georgia has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Head coach Tom Crean has seen his team cover point spread expectations in five straight games — but they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering five or six of their last seven contests. They return to Athens where they have played 8 of their last 3 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. They do hold their visitors to just a 41.1% field goal percentage. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. Georgia has also played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams winning 40% to 49% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Missouri Tigers (781) and the Georgia Bulldogs (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-19 |
Kentucky v. Ole Miss UNDER 139 |
Top |
80-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a 71-52 loss at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog. Mississippi (19-10) has lost their last two games after their 74-73 loss at Arkansas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kentucky has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Kentucky is without their floor general in senior Reid Travis who is dealing with a knee injury. The Wildcats made only 31.8% of their shots against the Volunteers without Travis running the offense. Head coach John Calipari will want his team to play better on defense tonight. While the 43.8% field goal percentage that the Volunteers achieved was not a bad effort, it was still the worst defensive performance for the Wildcats in their last twelve contests. Kentucky has held their last five opponents to just a 38.5% field goal percentage. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Kentucky has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Ole Miss has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels made 53.7% of their shots in that narrow loss to the Razorbacks which was the best shooting mark for them in their last nineteen games. Ole Miss is only making 43.9% of their shots over their last five contests. They have also played four straight games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Rebels have played 8 of their last home games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: With Kentucky without Travis, expect this to be a lower-scoring contest. 25* CBB Super Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-19 |
Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL UNDER 136 |
Top |
63-76 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (12-17) has lost twelve games in a row with their 73-49 loss at Virginia on Saturday as an 18-point underdog. Miami (FL) (12-16) has lost their last two games after their 87-57 loss at Duke as a 15-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Pittsburgh has also played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 55 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to reach at least 50 points in their last contest. The Panthers are making only 34.2% of their shots over their last five games — and they are 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. More importantly, when playing on the road, head coach Jeff Capel needs to his team to play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Cavaliers to make 58.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. Pitt has played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Panthers score only 65.5 PPG away from home while making only 38.9% of their shots. Furthermore, the Panthers have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight losses to conference opponents. Miami also comes off a disappointing defensive effort as they allowed the Blue Devils to make 57.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Hurricanes have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. This has been a disappointing season for head coach Jim Larranaga with injuries and the declaration of their best player, Dewan Hernandez, being declared ineligible after accepting payments from an agent. Hernandez never took the court this season and has already declared that he will make himself eligible for the NBA draft in June. Without him anchoring the offense, this team cannot score. Miami is 10th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 38.0% of their shots over their last five games. The Hurricanes return home where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight encounters Under the Total. With both these programs struggling to score baskets this season while coming off disappointing efforts on defense, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-19 |
Wolves v. Wizards OVER 238 |
Top |
121-135 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (585) and the Washington Wizards (586). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (29-33) has lost two straight games with their 122-115 loss at Indiana as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington (25-37) has lost five of their last six games with their 107-96 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Minnesota is shooting 47.2% from the field over their last five games which has translated into 118.6 PPG — but they are also allowing 120.4 PPG over these last five games as well. The T-Wolves have played a decisive 33 of their last 49 games Over the Total with the Total set at least at 220. Now Minnesota goes back on the road where they have played of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They are 9-23 overall on the road where they are allowing 115.1 PPG — but they are scoring 111.1 PPG away from home. Defending the arc has been a problem for the T-Wolves when playing on the road as their home hosts are shooting 38.9% from behind the arc. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. The Over is a decisive 43-21-1 in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. The Over is also 45-20-1 in the Wizards’ last 66 games after a point spread loss. Washington is playing at a blistering pace as of late — they are averaging 105.0 possessions per 48 minutes over their last ten games which is the third fastest pace in the league. Over their last five games, the Wizards are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 118.8 PPG allowed. Washington returns home where they are 16-12 while making 48.5% of their shots this season which has resulted in 117.6 PPG. But the Wizards are also allowing their visitors to 114.5 PPG. Washington has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wizards have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set at least at 220.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing with Washington. While the Over/Under is set in the high-230s to low-240s, expect this game to topple that number between two teams that play at a fast pace while privileging offense over defense. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (585) and the Washington Wizards (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-19 |
Southern Utah v. Montana OVER 147 |
|
54-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (793) and the Montana Grizzlies (794). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (14-12) has won two straight games as well as five of their last seven contests with their 85-76 win over Idaho on Wednesday. Montana (20-7) saw their ten-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 74-72 upset loss to Northern Colorado as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Montana has also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less. The Grizzlies have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Montana stays at home where they are 10-2 while scoring 79.3 PPG with a nice 49.2% field goal percentage. The Grizzlies lead the Big Sky Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and effective field goal percentage due to their hitting 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc which is also the top mark in the conference. Montana is making 51% of their shots over their last five games. But the Grizzlies are also allowing their last five opponents to make 47% of their shots. Montana has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Southern Utah has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They defeated the Vandals on Wednesday despite making only 41.7% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort for them in their last five games. The Thunderbirds go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Southern Utah has also played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60% to 80% range. And in their last 15 games with the Total set in the 140s, the game finished Over the Total 12 times.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah is looking to avenge an 89-76 loss at home to Montana as a 10.5-point underdog back on December 31st — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total. 20* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (793) and the Montana Grizzlies (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-19 |
Siena v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
62-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Siena (15-14) has won two straight games with their 67-55 win over Marist last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Canisius (13-16) has lost two straight contests after their 86-84 loss to Niagara as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have seen the Under go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a win over a Metro Athletic Association team. Siena has also played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Saints has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Additionally, while Siena has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two contests. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Saints goes back on the road for the first time since February 10th. The Under is 5-1-1 in Siena’s last 7 road games after playing at least their last three games at home. They are making just 42.7% of their shots when playing away from home — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. The Saints have also played 4 straight games against teams with a losing record on their home court — and the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Siena has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the MAAC — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage. The Saints have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Canisius has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. The Golden Griffins have seen the Under go 15-7-1 in their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 17-8-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Canisius has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Now after losing three of their last four games, the Golden Griffins have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Canisius made 52.5% of their shots against the Purple Eagles on Wednesday after making 51.7% of their shots at Iona in their previous game after shooting a miserable 29.8% from the field three games ago at Monmouth. The Golden Griffins have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena is looking to avenge a 70-66 loss to Canisius back on January 5th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-19 |
Wisconsin v. Indiana UNDER 126 |
|
73-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (633) and the Indiana Hoosiers (634). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (19-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 69-64 win at Minnesota as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Indiana (13-14) has lost five straight contests after their 76-70 loss at Iowa as a 7.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Badgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Wisconsin shot 45.5% from the field in that game which was actually the best shooting effort in their last five games. Too often, this team becomes reliant on jump shooting as a second option to Ethan Happ working the post. Happ has nice moves down low — but he cannot shoot the basketball and has become such a liability at the free throw line that head coach Greg Gard has benched in critical situations. The Badgers do not pass the ball enough — they rank 11th in the Big Ten by assisting on just 46.4% of their field goals. They have not produced more than 12 assists in each of their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to produce more than 12 team assists in two straight games. Over their last five games, Wisconsin is making only 40.7% of their shots from the field. But what this team is doing well is playing defense as they rank 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Now they stay on the road where they are 9-5 while holding their opponents to just 60.8 PPG on low 38.78% shooting from the field. The Badgers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Indiana has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes playing six straight games at home Under the Total after a loss. And while their loss at Iowa finished Over the 145.5 point total, the Hoosiers have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Indiana is making only 39% of their shots during their five-game losing streak with Romeo Langford being a big disappointment in his freshman season. But the Hoosiers play tough defense particularly at home where they are allowing only 61.3 PPG on low 39.6% shooting from the field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low scoring game between these two teams who rely on their defense to keep them competitive. 10* CBB Wisconsin-Indiana ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (633) and the Indiana Hoosiers (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-19 |
Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 140.5 |
|
54-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (843) and the Arizona Wildcats (844). THE SITUATION: Stanford (14-12) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 80-62 loss at Arizona State as an 8.5-point underdog. Arizona (15-12) snapped their seven-game losing streak on Thursday with their 76-51 win at home over California as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal were without their best player in 6’9 big man K.Z. Okpala who seems to have rolled his ankle and did not even attempt to test it in pregame warmups. Okpala may be the most intriguing NBA talent out of the entire Pac-12 — he is averaging 17.4 PPG with 5.8 RPG this season. He is listed as questionable for tonight with no updates on the twitter machine as of this writing. I was looking at taking Stanford in this game but his questionable status precludes that as a reasonable option given how poorly the Cardinal played without him on Wednesday. But the things I look for with an Under play remain solid in this spot — and those metrics assume that Okpala would play. This Under is even better if Okpala is kept out again (and I would assume head coach Jerod Haase would be extra cautious with his star player since the Cardinal are way off the bubble). Even with Okpala, Stanford ranks just 8th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Stanford shot just 37.5% from the field without Okpala against the Sun Devils. They allowed Arizona State to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season. Look for harder work on that end of the court tonight. The Cardinal has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least double-digits. Stanford has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring only 67.2 PPG while making just 41.9% of their shots. The Cardinal has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Arizona made 49.1% of their shots against Cal which was the best offensive effort in their last ten games. But they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Wildcats are 10th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are shooting just 41.4% from the field in their last five games. Sean Miller’s team lacks the playmakers that he has enjoyed in the past. His team is making only 44.1% of their shots inside the arc which is last in the Pac-12. This Arizona team may be more perimeter oriented this season as a result — but one thing this Cardinal defense does is take away 3-point shooting. Stanford leads the Pac-12 with their opponents taking only 27.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they also are tops in the conference with only 26.3% of their opponent’s points coming from 3-pointers. The Wildcats stay at home where they are 11-4 but making only 44.1% of their shots. They do hold their visitors to just a 40.7% field goal percentage — and they should feel encouraged to holding the Golden Bears to just a 30.4% shooting mark. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This season was already going to be a challenge for Miller after losing the five starters — and top five scorers — from last year’s team. To compound matters, one of his top two leading scorers in freshman Brandon Williams is out indefinitely with a knee injury. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (843) and the Arizona Wildcats (844). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-19 |
Michigan State v. Michigan UNDER 134 |
Top |
77-70 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (22-5) has won four straight games with their 71-60 win over Rutgers on Wednesday as a 15.5-point favorite. Michigan (24-3) has won four of their last five games with their 69-60 win at Minnesota on Thursday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go 22-6-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 9 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games against fellow Big Ten opponents. This is a team hit hard by two big injuries. Joshua Langford is out the season with an ankle injury while Nick Ward is out indefinitely with a hand injury. That leaves much of the offensive burden on guard Cassius Winston — and he was absolutely owned last year by the Wolverines’ elite defender Xavier Simpson. In their two upset losses to Michigan last season, Winston made only 6 of his 17 shots from the floor while going 1 for 6 from behind the arc while averaging just 11.0 PPG with 3.5 assists. Scoring is going to be hard to come by for Sparty in this game as they are making only 44.8% of their shots over their last five games dealing with these injuries — they will have to rely on their strong defensive play to stay competitive in this game. Michigan State goes on the road where they do hold their home hosts to just a 38.8% field goal percentage. The Spartans have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Michigan State’s last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Under is also 18-7-1 in Michigan’s last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Wolverines have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This is Michigan’s just second game since last Saturday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. The Wolverines return home where they are 16-0 this season while holding their visitors to just a 39.7% field goal percentage. Michigan has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This Wolverines team can suffer through cold stretches on offense. While Simpson is one of the best defensive players in the nation, he is not a threat from his outside shooting which allows opposing defenses to play off him and help on other players. John Beilein offenses emphasize 3-point shooting but they are making only 33.2% of their 3-pointers in Big Ten play (7th in the conference).
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play outstanding defense: the Spartans rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while the Wolverines rank 2nd in the nation in that metric. These teams do not like each other — and this is a very heated rivalry after Michigan upset them twice last season. This will slow and physical with the first team to reach 60 points the likely winner. 25* CBB Sunday CBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
St. Mary's v. San Diego UNDER 131.5 |
|
66-46 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (743) and the San Diego Toreros (744). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (18-10) has won five of their last six games after their 58-32 win at Pacific on Thursday as an 8.5-point favorite. San Diego (17-11) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 63-52 win over Portland as a 16.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gaels have seen the Under go a decisive 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win. Saint Mary’s has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a West Coast Conference rival. The Gaels stay on the road where they are making only 42.6% of their shots. Saint Mary’s is also only making 42.0% of their shots over their last five games. The Under is 49-18-1 in the Gaels’ last 68 games on the road — and they have played fourteen of their last nineteen games Under the Total when playing away from home. The Under is also 39-11-1 in Saint Mary’s last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Gaels have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as the favorite. San Diego has seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Toreros have played two straight Unders, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight games Under the Total. Over their last five games, San Diego is making only 42.6% of their shots. Now they return home where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on their home court. The Toreros have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, San Diego has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Gaels’ 76-59 win over the Toreros back on January 9th. San Diego has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss. These two teams have paid 4 straight Unders — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in San Diego. 10* CBB Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (743) and the San Diego Toreros (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Nets v. Hornets OVER 227 |
Top |
117-115 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (537) and the Charlotte Hornets (538). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (30-30) has lost three of their last four games with their 113-99 loss to Portland on Thursday as a 3-point underdog. Charlotte (28-30) returned from the All-Star break last night with a 123-110 win over Washington as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nets have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. That game also finished far below the 231.5 point total — and Brooklyn has then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Nets made only 39.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Brooklyn should see an uptick in their offensive productivity with Caris LeVert back in the mix — this will be his fifth game since returning to the court after suffering that gruesome leg injury. The Trail Blazers were also dealing with rust in their shooting as they shot just 43.8% from the field which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Nets’ last five contests. Brooklyn has still allowed their last five opponents to shoot 49.1% from the field. The Nets now go on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have also played 22 of their last 29 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Hornets allow 111.3 PPG, Brooklyn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow at least 106 PPG. Charlotte’s five starters logged in 166:56 combined minutes last night — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing the previous day where their five starters combined to play at least 160 minutes. Head coach James Borrego made an intriguing change in the lineup last night by moving Jeremy Lamb to the second unit to make room for their first-round draft pick Miles Bridges at forward with Nicolas Batum shifting to the shooting guard spot. The early results were very encouraging with Batum scoring 20 points and Bridges adding another 14 points. Lamb will be asked for instant offense leading the second unit alongside their veteran point guard Tony Parker — Lamb pitched in another 16 points last night off the bench. Overall, they shot a solid 47.9% from the field as a team while holding a cold shooting Wizards team to just a 43.3% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games and far below their opponent’s field goal percentage of 47.9% for the season. The Hornets stay at home where they have played 18 of their last 23 home games Over the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. Additionally, Charlotte has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. The Hornets have also played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. This team plays at a blistering pace which has helped them launch at least 90 shots in three straight games with them attempting 94 and 96 shots in their last two contests. Charlotte has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. The Nets play at a fast pace as well which translates into 90 shot attempts per game — and the Hornets have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents that laugh at least 88 shots per game. Brooklyn allows their opponents to score 112.7 PPG — and Charlotte has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 110 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn has averaged 104.8 possessions per 48 minutes over their last ten games which leads the NBA over that span. With the Hornets happy to engage in that up-tempo style, expect a high scoring game between these two teams that tend to struggle on the defensive end of the court. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (537) and the Charlotte Hornets (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
86-91 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (14-11) has won three of their last four games with their 63-60 win at Texas State on Thursday as a 5-point favorite. UT-Arlington (12-15) has lost three straight games after suffering their second straight upset loss on Thursday when they lost at home to UL-Lafayette by a 76-64 score as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mavericks on Thursday in a situation I really liked — so that result was a big disappointment. But in researching that game, it afforded me the opportunity to dig deep into what Chris Ogden is doing with this UT-Arlington program in his first year as their head coach. Ogden inherited only 15% of the minutes from UT-Arlington’s senior-laden team the year before. After working as an assistant for Chris Beard at Texas Tech and Rick Barnes both at Texas and Tennessee, it is clear that Ogden knows how to teach defense. The Mavericks lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. After allowing Arkansas State to shoot 51.9% from the field, I expected a much better defensive effort — and I was correct on that front as UT-Arlington held the Ragin’ Cajuns to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. The problem was that the Mavericks made only 42.9% of their shots against a Red Wolves team that does not play good defense. Unfortunately for Ogden, that field goal percentage was still their best shooting mark in their last three contests. This is simply not a good shooting team — they are last in the Sun Belt in both effective field goal percentage and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. What UT-Arlington does best on offense is crash the boards as they rank 3rd in the conference by pulling down 32.1% of their missed shots. I thought this is where they would dominate Louisiana (and they did pull down 10 offensive boards representing a 30.3% rate). But getting second-chance scoring opportunities will be much harder this afternoon against this War Hawks team that leads the Sun Belt by holding their opponents to just a 25.0% offensive rebound rate. The Mavericks will have to lean on their defense — they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting mark. UT-Arlington has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while their loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns finished below the 150.5 point total, the Mavericks have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. UT-Arlington stays at home where they are 7-5 this season but where they are making only 40.7% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less against conference rivals. The Warhawks have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. UL-Monroe made 49.1% of their shots in that game — and they have made at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight games. But the Warhawks have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after shooting at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight contests. Head coach Keith Richard emphasizes 3-point shooting — his team is second in the Sun Belt by collecting 37.9% of their points from 3-pointers. But Ogden has been very good teaching his team to defend the arc and force opposing shooters to take low percentage jump shots inside the arc. Only 30.9% of their opponent’s points are coming from made 3-pointers which is the third-best mark in the conference — and UT-Arlington then leads the conference by holding their opponents to just a 46.2% field goal percentage inside the arc. UL-Monroe stays on the road where they are 3-10 while making only 42.7% of their shots. The Warhawks have played 39 of their last 55 road games Under the Total — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total in Sun Belt play. And in their last 38 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 28 times — and this includes ten Unders in these last thirteen situations.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a defensive battle between two teams that struggle to make shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-19 |
Air Force v. Fresno State UNDER 136.5 |
|
64-61 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Air Force Falcons (831) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (832). THE SITUATION: Air Force (10-15) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 76-62 loss to Utah State as a 10-point underdog on Saturday. Fresno State (19-6) has won three in a row along with five of their last six games with their 81-73 win at New Mexico on Saturday where they were 2-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Air Force has played a decisive 46 of their last 71 games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while the Falcons have allowed at least 76 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 75 points in three straight contests. This team struggles to score baskets — they rank last in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking last in Free Throw Rate, 3-point shooting and second-to-last in Offensive Rebounding. They face a Bulldogs team that holds their opponents to just a 41.5% field goal percentage — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42.5% or less. But while Fresno State shoots 45.7% from the field, Air Force has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Now the Falcons go on the road where they are scoring only 62.4 PPG on low 43.5% shooting. Air Force has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% on their games at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting at least +12.5 points. Fresno State has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference rival on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Bulldogs return home where they are 11-3 while holding their opponents to a low 39.9% field goal percentage. Fresno State has played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Bulldogs have also played 5 of their last games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 meetings at Fresno State Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Air Force Falcons (831) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-19 |
North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 |
Top |
88-72 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (20-5) has won eight of their last nine games after their 95-57 win at Wake Forest as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (23-2) has won nine games in a row with their 94-78 win over North Carolina State as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is certainly tempting to expect a high-scoring game between these two offensive juggernauts that play at the 3rd and 11th fastest paces in the nation. However, the Over tends to be overvalued in situations like this by the betting public. While my handicapping is very much informed by empirical situational angles, I rarely include them in my (already too long) Reports. I will share two historical angles that speak loudly to tonight’s situation with the Total set in the mid-160s. North Carolina and Duke are two elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by +12.2 PPG and +20.3 PPG — yet when teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG in the second half of the season with the Total set in the 160s, the game has then finished Under the Total in 72 of the last 106 (68%) situations where these conditions applied. This simple angle exposes two truths: (1) elite teams also tend to play very good defense and (2) the pressure inherent in heavyweight matchups tends to negatively impact shooting. Furthermore, great teams tend to rebound the ball well which leads to extending offensive possessions (with a new shot clock) and short-circuited the opponent’s offensive possessions (who often rely on second-chance points for their effectiveness). The Tar Heels and the Blue Devils out-rebound their opponents by +9.4 RPG and +7.2 RPG — and after 15 games into the season in contests between two teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +6.0 RPG with the Total set in the 160s, the game finished Under the Total in 26 of these last 34 (77%) situations. Both these teams play outstanding defense: North Carolina is 20th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Duke ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Tar Heels have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Both these teams have significant flaws on offense that their opponent will attempt to expose tonight. Bettors may still remember Duke’s torrid 3-point shooting in their high-profile showdown with Virginia two Saturdays ago where they nailed 13 of 21 (62%) of their shots from behind the arc. But the Regression Gods have since visited the Blue Devils as they have since made only 10 of their 44 (22.7%) of their 3-point attempts in their next two games. Duke is 305th in the nation with a 31.3% mark from behind the arc — and that number drops even further to a 30.5% clip in ACC play. My concerns for North Carolina on offense are qualitative when facing outstanding opponents. Roy Williams wants to play two traditional big men still — yet his best five on the court probably requires him to use a smaller (and more explosive) lineup with Luke Maye playing at the 5. I also don’t like the matchup Coby White faces tonight against the Blue Devils’ Tre Jones who is an absolute menace on defense. White has tended to disappear this season with games — and that stalls the Tar Heels offense: White scored 12 points in a loss to Michigan where his team put up 67 points; he scored 4 points in a loss to Louisville where UNC scored 62 points; he scored 8 points in a loss to Kentucky where UNC scored 72 points. The Tar Heels usually score 87.5 PPG but those three results represent three of their four lowest point outputs this season (with their most recent loss to Virginia who plays at a crawl being the fourth sample). Additionally, North Carolina may be due for a visit from the Regression Gods after they shot a season-high 62.3% in their win over the Demon Deacons. They made 16 of 25 (64%) of their 3-pointers in that win — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Tar Heels 3-point shooting by a Duke team that is 14th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage of 29.7% that lowers to a 27.3% mark when at home. Speaking of regression, the Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Finally, North Carolina has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 160s while Duke has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the number in the 160 to 169.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Team trends can be very helpful in identifying how teams typically respond to situations like this — and this particularly true in college basketball when dealing with established coaches like Williams and Mike Krzyzewski who deploy consistent styles of play from year-to-year. The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams with the Under also 3-0-1 in the last 4 encounters at Cameron Indoor. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-19 |
Ball State v. Miami-OH UNDER 142.5 |
|
66-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (617) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (618). THE SITUATION: Ball State (14-11) has won three straight games after their 57-56 win over Akron last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. Miami (OH) (13-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 84-79 loss at Western Michigan on Saturday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals held the Zips to just a 30.2% field goal percentage in their win on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. Ball State plays tough half-court defense — their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.5% is the 35th best mark in the nation. The Cardinals have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Ball State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow Mid-American Conference opponents. The Cardinals have held their last five opponents to a low 39% field goal percentage. But they are making only 41.2% of their shots during these last five contests after shooting just 34.4% on Saturday. Now Ball State goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Miami (OH) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Redhawks have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against Mid-American Conference foes. Miami made 37.3% of their shots on Saturday which was actually their best shooting mark in their last three games. The Redhawks are making only 39.9% of their shots over their last five games. Miami also allowed the Broncos to make 46.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten contests. Over their last five games, the Redhawks have held their last five opponents to only a 40.6% field goal percentage. Now Miami returns home where they are 9-3 this season while holding their guests to just 63.4 PPG on low 40.8% shooting from the field. The Redhawks have played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range — and they have also played 6 straight home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, Miami has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State will have revenge on their mind after losing to Miami (OH) back on January 22nd. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (617) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-19 |
SE Missouri State v. Eastern Illinois OVER 141 |
|
88-79 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (775) and the Eastern Illinois Panthers (776). THE SITUATION: Southeast Missouri State (8-18) has lost four of their last five games with their 81-72 loss at UT-Martin on Thursday as a 5.5-point underdog. Eastern Illinois (14-12) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 79-65 win at SIU-Edwardsville as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: SE Missouri State has failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Redhawks have also now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against fellow Ohio Valley opponents. Defense has been a problem for this team after they allowed UT-Martin to make 61.2% of their shots on Thursday. SE Missouri State has allowed their last five opponents make 50.1% of their shots. Now they stay on the road where they are allowing 76.6 PPG on 46.1% shooting this season. The Redhawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. SE Missouri State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Eastern Illinois has played a decisive 44 of their last 59 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Now after playing their last three games on the road, Eastern Illinois returns home where they are scoring 76.6 PPG while allowing 76.1 PPG. The Panthers have played 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Eastern Illinois has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are looking to avenge a 64-59 loss to SE Missouri State back on January 26th. Eastern Illinois has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. And in their last 4 opportunities to host the Redhawks, the game finished Over the Total all 4 times. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (775) and the Eastern Illinois Panthers (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-19 |
Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State OVER 145 |
Top |
73-85 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (10-17) has won two straight games with their 86-72 upset win at South Dakota as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. North Dakota State (13-12) has won four straight games with their 81-71 win over Denver on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles have played 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 22 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Oral Roberts has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 31 of their last 40 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game which includes thirteen of those last fifteen situations going Over the Total. This Oral Roberts team may have found their shooting stroke as they made 56.1% of their shots against South Dakota after making 51.1% of their shots against Denver in their previous game. The Golden Eagles have also 14 of 15 and 17 of 20 from the free throw line in their last two contests — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 78% from the charity stripe in at least two straight games. Now Oral Roberts stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Golden Eagles have also played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. North Dakota State has played 24 of their last 32 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Bison has played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and this includes them playing eight of these last nine situations going Over the Total. And while North Dakota State has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. The Bison stay at home where they are scoring 79.6 PPG while making 49.3% of their shots. North Dakota State has played 22 of their last 29 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bison have played 14 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts is looking to avenge a 67-57 loss to North Dakota State loss to the Bison back on January 26th — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge. In the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Fargo, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-19 |
Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 137.5 |
Top |
61-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (16-8) has lost three straight games with their 79-55 loss at Michigan State last Saturday as a 13.5-point underdog. Nebraska (13-11) has lost seven in a row with their 81-62 loss at Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Gophers should play better on defense after allowing the Spartans to make 51.7% of their shots from the field. That was the second-worst opponent’s field goal percentage that they have allowed in their last seven games. Minnesota has been consistently inconsistent this season — so a good effort looks likely for this veteran team that plays tough and physical when at their best. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Golden Gophers stay on the road where they are 4-6 this season. They struggle to score points when away from home as they average just 63.4 PPG on the road while making just 38.9% of their shots. The Under is 9-1-1 in Minnesota’s last 11 games on the road — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Nebraska has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Cornhuskers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Nebraska should play much better on defense tonight after allowing the Boilermakers to make 50.9% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. Tim Miles’ team usually plays strong on defense as they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. Miles will want his team to work harder on the boards after being out-rebounded by a 39 to 24 margin. The Cornhuskers have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards. The problem for this team during their losing streak has been their inability to hit a side of a barn on offense. They are making just 32% of their shots over their last five games which translated into just 56.4 PPG. While the Regression Gods may decide to let all their bank shots from behind the arc rattle into the basket — I do not think that happens tonight with Isaac Copeland, Jr. out with a knee injury. The forward is the team’s second-leading scorer with a 14.0 PPG average. Nebraska returns home where they are 9-4 this season but making only 42.7% of their shots. The Cornhuskers' recipe for success at home is on defense where they hold their opponents to only 56.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just a 35.7% field goal percentage. Nebraska has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Cornhuskers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This will be a rematch of the meeting between these two teams back on December 5th where the Golden Gophers won in Minnesota by an 85-78 score. Nebraska has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-19 |
Heat v. Mavs UNDER 208 |
|
112-101 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Toal in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Dallas Mavericks (514). THE SITUATION: Miami (25-30) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 103-87 loss at Denver on Monday as a 9.5-point underdog. Dallas (26-30) has lost two of their last three games with their 120-104 loss at Houston as an 11-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least four of their last five games. This is Miami’s fifth game in a row on the road — and it is their fourth game over the last seven days. The Heat have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when playing their fourth game in seven days — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least three previous games on the road. The scoring output for this team has declined a bit as of late as they are averaging 101.4 PPG over their last five games which is -3.5 PPG lower than their 104.9 PPG season average. Miami stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Heat have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Dallas has played 12 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is playing lower scoring games since their blockbuster Kristaps Porzingis trade. Dallas dealt away Dennis Smith, Jr. along with Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan while getting back Tim Hardaway, Jr., Trey Burke and Porzingis who is out the season with his torn ACL. The Mavericks are scoring only 104.6 PPG on 43.4% shooting over their last five games which are both below their 108.8 PPG scoring average on 44.9% shooting for the season. But Dallas is giving up only 106.8 PPG over these last five games which is almost 2 points lower than their 108.7 PPG season average. The Mavericks return home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Dallas has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 encounters Under the Total — and this includes them playing four straight Unders when the game is played in Dallas. Expect another lower scoring game. 20* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Toal in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Dallas Mavericks (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|