11-18-22 |
UCLA v. Illinois UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
70-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (885) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (886). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-0) has opened their season with three straight victories after an 86-56 win against Norfolk State as a 20.5-point favorite on Monday. Illinois (3-0) has won their first three contests after a 103-65 victory against Monmouth as a 28-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for the Continental Tire Main Event tournament.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is the first true test for both these teams that have aspirations to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins return Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell from the group that finished 27-8 last season. But head coach Mick Cronin does replace Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard who combined to score 28.4 Points-Per-Game last season. UCLA nailed 57.1% of their shots on Monday against Norfolk State which was the best shooting effort of their season. They allowed Norfolk State to make 47.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the year — so that end of the court will likely be an area of emphasis tonight for Cronin. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they made at least 55% of their shots. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while UCLA has scored at least 76 points in all three of their games, they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, they have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Illinois replaces ten players from their team that finished 23-10 including their top five scorers headlined by Kofi Cockburn who departed early for the NBA. Head coach Brad Underwood hit the transfer window hard by bringing in Terrence Shannon, Jr. from Texas Tech and Matthew Mayer from Baylor. They have a talented point guard in Sky Clark but he is a freshman who will be tested for the first by an elite opponent. The Fighting Illini made 59.7% of their shots against Monmouth which was the best shooting effort of the season — but they allowed them to make 42.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season after holding their first two opponents to just 35.0% and 31.2% shooting. Illinois has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first game away from home for both teams. Both of these teams are struggling to make their free throws with UCLA making only 67.5% of their shots from the charity stripe and Illinois only hitting 64.6% of their freebies. The Illini have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. The Bruins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (885) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-22 |
Suns v. Wolves UNDER 222.5 |
|
129-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (548). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 100-88 upset loss at Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (5-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-107 upset loss to New York as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns are dealing with injuries with Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson out for tonight’s game. Paul has struggled with his shot so far this season — but he remains elite as a floor general so the team will miss his point guard skills. Johnson was elevated to the starting lineup this season with Jae Crowder sitting out demanding a trade — so his injury leaves the team thin at the wing lacking 3-point shooters. Johnson scored 29 points in the Suns’ 116-107 win against the Timberwolves on November 1st. Phoenix has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Suns have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. The Suns only made 43.8% of their shots on Monday — but that was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. They are holding things down on the defensive end of the court — they have held four of their last five opponents to 109 or fewer points and no better than 43.7% shooting from the field. On the road, they are scoring only 103.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their home hosts to 102.7 PPG on 42.2% shooting. Phoenix ranks 3rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 6 straight Unders on the road — and the Under is 20-8-2 in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Timberwolves are struggling to find cohesion with the addition of Rudy Gobert. The play on the defensive end of the court has been good — they rank 9th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the T-Wolves are bottom-ten in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The problem appears to be the mix between Karl Anthony-Towns and Gobert are scoring only 101.4 points per 100 possessions in their 206 minutes together which would be the lowest offensive efficiency in the league. They stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road (Phoenix: 1-2 on the road).
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-22 |
Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 224 |
Top |
119-123 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (535) and the Boston Celtics (536). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-4) has won four of their last six games after a 106-88 win against Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston (4-3) has lost three of their last four games after a 114-113 upset loss at Cleveland on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls are playing better defense this season led by Alex Caruso and Javonte Green. They held the Hornets to just 39.1% shooting after limiting Brooklyn to only 99 points in their previous game. Chicago has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 13 games after playing a game where no more than 195 combined points were scored, the Bulls have played 8 of those games Under the Total. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Boston misses Robert Williams III who is out for a few months with an injury — but they are beginning to play better on defense. After holding Washington to 38.8% shooting, they limited the Cavaliers to just 42.0% shooting on Wednesday. Boston is still playing well in defending the rim even without Williams. They rank 4th in the NBA in preventing shots at the rim — and they are 9th in the league in opponent’s field goal percentage within four feet of the rim. The Celtics have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 36 of their last 57 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 120-102 loss at Chicago as a 5.5-point favorite on October 24th — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road as the favorite. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (535) and the Boston Celtics (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-22 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
99-110 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (1-2) enters this game coming off a 134-124 loss at Memphis as a pick ‘em on Monday. Milwaukee (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after a 125-105 win against Houston as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets nailed 54% of their shots on Monday against the Grizzlies which was the best shooting effort this season. But they allowed Memphis to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance of the new campaign. Brooklyn has been a disaster on defense this season allowing their first three opponents to score 123.0 Points-Per-Game on 49.3% shooting — but I think much of this is explained by the level of intensity Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving bring to that end of the floor. These two played harder on defense in the playoffs against Boston last spring — and I expect a similar effort tonight in this nationally-televised game. As it is, the Nets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Brooklyn has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 130 or more points in their last contest. And while they have allowed their three opponents to make 48.8% of their shots, they have then played 42 of their last 64 games Under the Total after allowing three straight opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field including ten of those last fifteen circumstances. What is perhaps more troubling for the Nets is their lack of efficiency on the offensive end of the court with their starting five. In the 73 possessions that Durant, Irving, Ben Simmons, Royce O’Neal, and Nic Clayton have been on the court together, they are scoring only 97.3 points per 100 possessions. As the Celtics exposed in the playoffs last year, this offense can be slow, stagnant, and predictable when Durant and Irving are playing “your turn, my turn” with the basketball. Adding Simmons and Claxton into the mix adds two players who do not present any scoring threat — making that starting five even easier to defend. Brooklyn has played 39 of their last 62 games Under the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee shot a season-high 56.5% from the field in their win against the Rockets. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Bucks have also played 4 straight Unders when playing with three or more days of rest. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on their home court. Milwaukee is playing without two of their best shooters with Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton out with injuries. Their absences have allowed for Wes Matthews and Jelon Carter to play more minutes, who are more effective on the defensive end. The Bucks lead the NBA by allowing their opponents to score 97.9 points per 100 possessions. But the offense ranks 25th in Adjusted Net Efficiency despite playing two bottom-ten defenses in terms of efficiency. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has his team playing at a slower pace as they rank 26th in tempo this season after ranking 4th in that metric last year. Brooklyn ranks 24th in the league in pace.
FINAL TAKE: Simmons defended Giannis Antetokounmpo in an interesting matchup — he held the Greek Freak to just 6 of 21 shooting in the preseason (for what that is worth). The Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 meetings against each other — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games in Milwaukee Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
103-90 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (68-35) can win the NBA Championship tonight after taking a 3-2 lead in this series with their 104-94 win at home against the Celtics as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Boston (65-40) returns home looking to stave off elimination after losing three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I suspect the market has not adapted enough to the fundamental change that has occurred in this series. After holding the Celtics to just 97 and then 94 points in the last two games in this series, the Warriors have found the answers as to how to best deploy their defensive efforts. Golden State is playing tight and aggressive defense that is making things uncomfortable for both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics lack a consistent third scoring option or reliable 3-point shooting to counter these tactics. Let’s remember that Golden State ranked second in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 107 points per 100 possessions in the regular season — despite not playing with Draymond Green for a long stretch. Game Three of this series had 216 combined points scored after Game Two only had 195 combined points scored. The Warriors have held Boston to no more 88, 94, and 97 points in three of their last four games. The lone exception was in Game Three when Boston scored 116 points — fueled by a 47 to 31 edge on the boards. Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr immediately made his team’s effort on the boards a high priority. After pulling down 15 offensive rebounds in that Game Three, the Celtics have only managed 11 and then 8 offensive boards in the two games since after Kerr cajoled his team to tighten things up. The last two games in this series have had only 204 and 198 combined points scored — and Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The Warriors’ energy level of defense should continue with the extra day of rest — they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest including seven of those last ten occasions. Golden State was called for 28 personal fouls on Monday with Boston being whistled for only 16 fouls — and the Warriors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being called for at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. Golden State is scoring only 105.2 points per game in this series with that average dropping to 103.7 PPG in the last three games. One of the dynamics that is contributing to this is the less of a role Jordan Poole is playing. Poole is a liability on defense which has compelled Kerr to give him less playing time. He is averaging just 17 minutes per game in the last two games after only being on the court for 14:17 minutes on Monday mostly to give Stephen Curry a spell. He did score 14 points in Game Five — but three of those points were that buzzer-beating 40-footer at the end of the third quarter. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. Additionally, the Celtics have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when committing at least 10 fewer personal fouls than their opponent in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge from two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 212.5 |
|
94-104 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-39) looks to rebound from their 107-97 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home on Friday. Golden State (67-35) evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play. The Celtics have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after an upset loss where they lost by double-digits. Boston has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after playing their last two games on their home court. Getting back to two days off between games should help the Celtics’ energy when playing defense — they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Golden State has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 8 straight Unders when playing on their home court with two days of rest. The Warriors return home where they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. These two teams have played 18 of their last 24 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Golden State.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Boston-Golden State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 |
|
107-97 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Boston Celtics (524) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-35) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-100 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday in Game Three of the NBA Finals. Boston (65-38) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Steve Kerr identified that the biggest issue his team had in Game Three was getting beat on the boards. The Celtics enjoyed a 47-31 edge on the glass on Wednesday — and while they will likely continue to have an edge in that area, the Warriors need to work harder to minimize that advantage. There are some lineup moves that Kerr can make — first and foremost, Kevon Looney is likely to get more time tonight after playing only 16:49 minutes in Game Three. Kerr will likely want Looney to be on the court for longer stretches tonight to slow down the Celtics’ edge on the glass. This move will help Golden State’s defensive cause, but it will also hurt them on the offensive end. Looney is not a threat to score — and his presence on the court allows the Boston defender assigned to him to provide more help in rim protection. Golden State also needs a better game from Draymond Green after he only pulled down four rebounds before fouling out in what was his worst game in the postseason. Green later defined his own play as “soft,” which is a pretty good indication that he will be addressing the problem himself. In hindsight, it looks like he got caught up in all the technical fouls and officiating talk earlier in the week. Expect for Green to be more physical and active tonight. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total when playing their second game in five days. Additionally, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston nailed 48.3% of their shots in Game Three which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. They are also making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this series — I do expect that to decline. Boston did play their worst defensive game in their last four contests by allowing the Warriors to make 46.2% of their shots. That defensive field goal percentage was the second-highest that the Celtics have allowed in their last seven games. Boston is favored again tonight — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 8 of their last 12 playoff games Under the Total when leading the series — and Golden State has played 15 of their last 21 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 213.5 |
|
100-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Boston Celtics (522) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-34) has won six of their last eight games after winning Game Two of the NBA Finals by a 107-88 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Boston (64-38) returns home with this series tied at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 15 of their 37 shots (40.5%) from behind the arc in Game Two — after making 19 of their 45 shots (42.2%) from behind the arc in Game One. After converting 34 of their 82 shots from 3-point range in the two games at Golden State, I do not expect the Warriors to continue to shoot 41.5% from behind the arc. Golden State shoots 35.7% from the 3-point land when playing away from home — and the Celtics hold their opponents to 33.7% shooting from behind the arc. The extra day of rest should help both teams have fresh legs for their energy and efforts on defense. The Warriors have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston made 15 of their 37 shots (40.5%) from behind the arc in Game Two despite only shooting 37.5% overall. The Celtics won Game One because of their 21 of 41 clip (51.2%) from 3-point range. After making 36 of their 78 shots (46.2%) from behind the arc in the first two games, I expect that percentage to drop tonight. Boston shoots 35.4% from 3-point range at home — and the Warriors hold their opponents to 34.6% shooting from behind the arc this season. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance to slow down both teams’ 3-point shooting. The Celtics should be tough on defense with the extra day of rest and preparation — they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Boston has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 10 games when favored, the Celtics have played 7 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 20 of their last 28 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Boston. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Boston Celtics (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 |
|
88-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-37) has won four of their last five games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series. Golden State (65-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 120-108 upset loss at home to the Celtics in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State allowed the Celtics to make 50.6% of their shots on Thursday which was their worst game on defense in their last 13 contests. Boston also made 21 of their 41 shots (51.2%) from behind the arc. First up on head coach Steve Kerr’s list of Things To Do is shore things up on defense. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits. The extra day of rest and preparation should help as Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 7 straight games at home Under the Total when getting two days between games. The Warriors have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Furthermore, Golden State has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when trailing in the playoffs. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Daniel Theis combined to nail 18 of their 27 shots (67%) from 3-point range — just a tremendous accomplishment for a group where just Pritchard and Theis made more than 33.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season yet, tellingly, they averaged fewer 3-point attempts per game than the trio of Horford, Smart, and White in the regular season. The Celtics are not likely to shoot as well from behind the arc tonight — but they should defend the arc better after Golden State made 19 of their 45 shots (42%) from 3-point range. Boston was second in the regular season by limiting their opponents to 33.9% shooting from behind the arc.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 16 of their last 21 meetings Under the Total — including 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at Golden State. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors OVER 212.5 |
|
120-108 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (517) and the Golden State Warriors (518) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-37) won their third game in their last four with their 100-96 victory on the road in Miami as a 3-point favorite to take that series in seven games. Golden State (65-33) has won five of their last six games after their 120-110 victory at home against Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite last Thursday to close out that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Celtics took Game Seven against the Heat despite making only 41.2% of their shots against them which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 45.4% of their shots in the playoffs — and they are scoring 112.0 Points-Per-Game when playing on the road this season. The Over is 20-9-1 in their last 30 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 18-8-1 in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Boston has played 30 of their last 47 road games Over the Total after playing their last game on the road — and they have played 44 of their last 70 road games over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Golden State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They made 51.1% of their shots against the Mavericks last Thursday to close out that series. The Warriors lead all teams in the playoffs by scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions — up from the 112.8 points per 100 possessions scoring clip they enjoyed in the regular season. They are making 49.4% of their shots in the postseason which is generating 114.5 PPG. Furthermore, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Golden State has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the NBA Finals. 10* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (517) and the Golden State Warriors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-22 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 198 |
|
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the Miami Heat (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (62-37) looks to rebound from their 111-103 upset loss at home to the Heat as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Miami (64-35) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series to force the decisive Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs Under the Total when the series was tied. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Heat have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home after losing two of their last three games. They return home for this Game Seven where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on the road avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the Miami Heat (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-22 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 202 |
Top |
111-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (63-35) has lost two straight and three of the last four games in this series after a 93-80 loss at home as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Boston (62-36) took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After scoring only 82 points and shooting a season-low 33.3% from the field in their 20-point loss on the road in Game Four, Wednesday’s Game Five was the time that the Heat needed to step up. Instead, they made only 7 of their 45 shots (16%) from behind the arc and set a new standard in futility with their shooting for the season by making only 31.9% of their shots in scoring just 83 points in their seven-point loss. I don’t Miami is a fraud — my conclusion is that injuries have simply robbed the team of its offensive identity. Everything starts with Jimmy Butler — exemplified in Game One when he scored 41 points while getting to the free-throw line 18 times. The Heat scored 118 points against the top statistical defense in the NBA. And head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team shoot plenty of shots from behind the arc as they demonstrated by their dominant start to Game Three where they seized a 26-point lead in the second quarter. Then Butler re-injured the knee that has been nagging him for much of the season. Miami holds on to win Game Three — and Butler returns to the court to play in the last two games. But he is a shell of himself. In Game Four, he scores only 6 points on 3 of 14 shooting — and he is no drive in his game as he fails to get to the free-throw line even once. He was a bit better on Wednesday — but he still only got to three free throw line four times in scoring 13 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Since the injury, he has made only 7 of 32 shots for a 21.9% field goal percentage. Kyle Lowry was brought in during the offseason to be the second or third scoring option in the starting lineup — but he is far from 100% with the Hamstring that kept him earlier in the playoffs. He did not score in Game Five after scoring just 3 points in Game Four. Lowry has made only one shot in the last two games — and he has taken just 12 shots in those two contests. Tyler Herro won the Sixth Man of the Year Award by scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench — but the Heat have been without their second-leading scorer since he injured his groin in Game Three. Even if he returns tonight, his effectiveness is in doubt since his injury usually puts players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Bam Adebayo has been fine — he scored 18 points on 8 of 15 shooting on Wednesday. But he is not a number one scoring option — and this clever Celtics team now knows to focus their energies on him. Miami has Victor Oladipo who can provide offense — but he scored only 3 points on 1 of 7 shooting coming off the bench in Game Five. Spoelstra cannot play Duncan Robinson because he is a liability on defense. That puts Max Strus in the starting line up who missed all nine of his shots from the field on Wednesday. Miami can’t flip a switch to make Butler or Lowry or Herro healthy again — and perhaps the flaw of this team is that they really need at least two of those guys performing well to complement Adebayo. Since Game Two of this series, the Heat are scoring 1.01 Points-Per-Possession — and they are scoring 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the halfcourt. Granted, they should make more than the 13 of 39 clip-on uncontested shots from the field they endured in Game Five. But this is now a team that is likely to struggle to score even 90 points when playing on the road against the elite Boston defense. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot 35% or better from the field. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. Back at home, Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: While Miami’s ability to score points is in doubt, their commitment to making things difficult for the Celtics on the other end of the court is not. They have held Boston to just 35% shooting from 3-point land — and the Celtics have not scored more than 103 points in each of the last three games of the series. Spoelstra will no longer be interested in pushing the pace in this series — this needs to be a slog for his team to have a chance. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-22 |
Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 |
|
110-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (61-38) snapped their three-game losing streak in this series with a 119-109 victory on the road against the Warriors as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Golden State (64-33) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss — but they can still end this series tonight given their 3-1 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks nailed 47% of their shots from behind the arc in Game Four — and their 50% field goal percentage overall was the best mark they posted in this series. But Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. And in their last 23 games after losing two of their last three games, they have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Golden State played their worst game on defense in their last 11 contests by allowing Dallas to make 50% of their shots. But the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Golden State has also played 9 of their last 13 games in the Western Conference Finals Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Mavericks have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* NBA Dallas-Golden State TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-24-22 |
Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 216 |
Top |
109-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (64-32) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-100 upset victory on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday. Dallas (60-38) has lost four of their last six games after falling behind 0-3 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors’ zone defense is stifling the Mavericks in this series. Dallas is making only 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but they continue to live-or-die by the 3 as they are attempting 52% of their shots from the field from distance. The Mavericks’ lack of size is hurting them in this series as well — they are only pulling down 18.2% of their missed shots. Golden State won the rebounding battle by a 47-33 margin on Sunday — and they have outrebounded Dallas by at least 13 boards in each of the games in this series. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. And while Golden State has covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They have played 4 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Furthermore, Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. The Mavericks stay at home where the Under is 37-13-1 in their last 51 games —and they have played 20 of their last 27 home games when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 32 home games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-15-22 |
Mavs v. Suns UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
123-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (59-35) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 113-86 upset victory as a 2-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (71-23) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas has steadily improved their defensive play in this series. After allowing the Suns to score 125 Points-Per-Game with a 1.32 Points-Per-Possession scoring rate, they have contained Phoenix to just 90 PPG with 1.05 PPG scoring rate in the last four games of this series. Granted, three of those four games were played in Dallas — but Phoenix scored 110 points in Game Five back at home with a 49.4% field goal percentage. The Suns average 115.5 PPG on their home court — so Dallas’ effort in Game Five was still pretty good. Phoenix began the playoffs by making at least 50% of their shots in their first eight games — including nailing at least 60% of their shots in two contests — while averaging 114.8 PPG during that span. The Mavericks have found a way to slow down Chris Paul who is only scoring 9.3 PPG in his last four games. Jalen Brunson has proven himself a gritty defender against Paul who is struggling against his physicality. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Mavs have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. Dallas made 45.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Mavericks have been outrebounded by at least six rebounds in all six games in this series — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Phoenix has played 12 of their last 16 game Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Suns have also played 12 straight Unders after a loss on the road, in general. Additionally, Phoenix has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponents by at least five boards in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-12-22 |
Heat v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 |
|
99-90 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (60-35) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 120-85 victory against the 76ers as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Philadelphia (57-36) trails 3-2 in this series and seeks to avoid elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami made 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Heat have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory on their home court by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. They are missing Kyle Lowry tonight with his injured hamstring who is one of their most reliable scoring options. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they may have figured something out about the best way to slow down the 76ers’ offense. Head coach Erik Spoelstra had Jimmy Butler defend Tyrese Maxey in Game Four — and the rookie only hit 2 of his 10 shots for 9 points and one assist. Butler is a savvy defender who can take advantage of Maxey’s inexperience. The switch also allowed P.J. Tucker to defend James Harden who followed up his 31-point effort with just 14 points on 5 of 13 shooting. The Sixers need Joel Embiid close to full strength — but it is clear he is nowhere close with him wearing a mask to protect his injured orbital bone and the bum thumb that is limited his shooting touch. Embiid only took 12 shots on Tuesday — and he only attempted one shot from 3-point range. Embiid not being a scoring threat from outside changes the dynamic for the 76ers offense — it is one of the reasons why they are scoring just 99.0 Points-Per-Game in this series. Philly has not scored more than 103 points in this series in four of the five games in this series. The Sixers should play much better on defense tonight as the 53.6% shooting clip they allowed the Heat to generate was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. Philadelphia has played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a low by 30 or more points. Moving forward, the 76ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Philly has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and these two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Miami-Philadelphia ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-11-22 |
Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
110-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series with their 116-108 upset loss at home against the Celtics as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Boston (57-33) has won seven of their last nine games while evening this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee went into the fourth quarter in Game Four with a seven-point lead — but they surrendered a whopping 43 points in the final 12 minutes to get outscored by 15 points in the loss. That was the worst defensive effort for the Bucks in their last nine games. Milwaukee still leads all teams in the playoffs in Defensive Efficiency. The first item on head coach Mike Budenholzer’s agenda is to tighten things up on defense again. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Milwaukee misses Khris Middleton who remains out with a knee injury. Not only did he score 20.1 Points-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game in the regular season, but he is the team’s primary ball-handler which is critical for this team because he allows Giannis Antetokounmpo to exert less energy. Given the injury to Middleton, more is being asked of Jrue Holiday -- but he is more effective as a third scoring option rather than the primary complement to Antetokounmpo. Holiday is averaging 23 shot attempts per game in this series — but he is making only 33.6% of his shots and 30.9% of his shots from behind the arc. Brook Lopez becomes the de-facto third scoring option with Middleton out — but while he has scored 17 PPG in the playoffs when playing at home, he is only scoring 4.8 PPG on the road in the playoffs. Moving forward, Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last five games with their 50% shooting clip on Monday. They got a huge effort from Al Horford who nailed 11 of his 14 shots from the field including 5 of 7 from behind the arc for 30 points. The Celtics’ 116 points was tied for the highest-scoring game in their last eight contests. But Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset win. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. After leading the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in the regular season, they are third in the playoffs in defense while giving up the second-fewest points in the paint. The Celtics have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 13 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Boston has played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Boston. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-07-22 |
Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 213.5 |
|
101-103 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-32) has won six of their last seven games with their 109-86 victory at home against the Bucks as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. Milwaukee (56-33) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Celtics in Game Two after they were flat in a 104-89 loss in Game One. One of our arguments was that the Bucks’ four-game winning streak — all without the injured Khris Middleton — was likely to eventually catch up to them. Milwaukee responded to the sense of urgency of losing Middleton by scoring at least 111 points in their next three games against Chicago to end that series in five games. But combating the Bulls defense is not nearly the same challenge as facing the Celtics who led the league in Defensive Rating — and who had just gotten Robert Williams III back from injury. The Bucks only made 41.1% of their shots in Game One despite winning by 12 points. While Milwaukee did shoot better on Tuesday at a 46.6% clip, they missed 15 of their 18 shots from behind the arc. The Bucks should make more of their 3-pointers back at home — but the fact remains that they are only hitting 15 of their 52 shots from downtown for a 28.8% clip. The Celtics defense certainly has something to do with that. Milwaukee was eventually going to miss Middleton’s 20.1 Points-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Both of the first two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Bucks have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Milwaukee’s first order of business will likely be to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Celtics to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Bucks have played 5 straight Unders when favored — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point favorite. Boston’s 47.5% shooting percentage was their best mark in three games — but that number cloaks their red-hot 20 of 43 (47%) shooting mark from behind the arc in Game Two which will likely drop significantly this afternoon, especially since this is just their third game in 12 days after the mid-series hiatus to accommodate the television schedules. Celtics’ head coach Ime Udoka made a nice adjustment in Game Two by having either Grant Williams or Al Horford double-team Giannis Antetokounmpo out on the perimeter if he moves outside while keeping Williams III on his down low. This is where Milwaukee really misses Middleton to provide help in the offense and be the primary ball-carrier for much of the game. Antetokounmpo missed three of his four shots from behind the arc. Jrue Holiday and him accounted for 47 of the 73 shots the team took in Game Two — and the duo accounting for more than 64% of the team’s shots is not the balance that head coach Mike Budenholzer wants. And now Boston gets back Marcus Smart who has been upgraded to probable after missing Game Two with a thigh injury. Having the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year defending Holiday complicates matters for the Bucks playing without Middleton. The Celtics got a surprising 21 points from Grant Williams — he combined with Jaylen Brown to nail 12 of their combined 19 shots from behind the arc. That is not likely to happen again. Boston has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after no more than 195 combined points were scored in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and the Under is 18-6-2 in the Bucks’ last 26 games in the playoffs when they are the favorite. 10* NBA Boston-Milwaukee ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-22 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (59-28) has won three of their last four games with their 111-109 win at against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (49-39) hopes to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This series has been trending to lower-scoring games. After Game One saw 247 combined points scored, the Total moved up from a closing number in the 238 range for the first game to a closing Total in the 240 range. Game Two saw only 220 combined points scored before Game Three saw the series-low of 199 points. Game Four’s final score upticked back to 237 combined points (thanks for a furious scoring pace in the final minute). Game Five’s final score dropped to 220. Memphis is finding success in this series by winning the battle on the boards. After outrebounding the Timberwolves by a 53-42 margin on Tuesday, the Grizzlies have outrebounded them by at least five boards in the last four games. Memphis has then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last opponent by at least five rebounds in fouur straight games. The Grizzlies go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when favored. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. After exploding 130 points in Game One, the Timberwolves are averaging only 104.8 PPG in the last four games in this series on 42.5% shooting from the field. They have scored more than 109 points just once in these last four games — and they have not cleared 96 points twice in the last four. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Grizzlies outrebound their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by at least 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. The T-Wolves have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at Minnesota. 25* NBA Round One Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-22 |
76ers v. Raptors UNDER 210 |
Top |
132-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (54-33) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 103-88 loss at home against the Raptors as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Toronto (50-37) trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers are not as potent on offense since Joel Embiid injured his right thumb on his shooting hand. Philadelphia had a 61.5% effective field goal percentage before the injury — but they have a collective 48.1% effective field goal percentage as a team ever since after making only 38.3% of their shots on Monday. Embiid still scored 20 points in the loss in Game Five — but he cannot carry the team on offense and his outside shot is now limited. He missed all four of his shots from behind the arc in Game Five and his diminished threat as an outside shooter disrupts the team’s spacing on the court. The 76ers’ route to victory tonight is to play better defense after allowing the Raptors to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games — and the Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Sixers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Toronto enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests after nailing 51.2% of their shots. But the Raptors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory as a road underdog in their last game. They have also played 30 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last two games against Atlantic Division rivals. And while they have only covered the point spread in two of their last seven games, they have then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors will likely be without Fred VanVleet once again tonight. His absence helps Toronto on defense where he is a liability — but he is perhaps their most reliable scorer. They have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA 1st Round Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 218 |
Top |
100-116 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-39) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing by a 119-95 score at home to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (54-32) has a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago lost their second-best offensive player yesterday when Zack LaVine once again tested positive for COVID — he is out for tonight’s game. The Bulls will also be without Alex Caruso who is in the concussion protocol. Chicago will miss Caruso’s contributions on defense — but the net effect of losing both players is a net loss on the offensive end of the court. As it is, the Bulls are only scoring 94.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs which is the second-worst of all the teams in the first round of the playoffs. They are making just 39.8% of their shots in this series which is generating only 94.0 Points-Per-Game. Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. And while they have lost seven of their last nine games, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulls have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total. And in their last 20 games against division opponents, Chicago has played 16 of these contests Under the Total while scoring just 102.4 PPG in those 20 games — but allowing only 105.1 PPG. Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on the road. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bucks will continue to playing without Khris Middleton who scored 20.1 PPG and averaged 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Milwaukee has stepped up to nail 43.2% of their 74 shots from behind the arc in their last two games. The Bucks shoot 36.4% from 3-point range at home — so the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit. Milwaukee made 52.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Under is 15-5-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. Chicago has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a 20-point loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-22 |
Hawks v. Heat UNDER 216 |
|
94-97 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (539) and the Miami Heat (540) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (46-42) has lost three of their last four games after their 110-86 loss at home to the Heat as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (56-30) has a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss to a divisional opponent. Miami has stymied Trae Young and this Atlanta offense that likes to get most of their points in the half-court. The Hawks led the NBA by scoring 101.1 points per 100 possessions in the half-court in the regular season — but they are scoring just 92.1 points per 100 possessions in the postseason which is second-to-last of all sixteen teams that made the playoffs. The Heat are defending Young with double and triple teams and preventing him from driving into the paint. Young has taken more shots from 3-point land than inside the arc in this series — and his teammates are not offering enough help. Bogdan Bogdanovic is only making 23.6% of his 3s in this series and Kevin Huerter is hitting just 27.2% of his 3s. Now Atlanta goes on the road where they have played 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight who is out with knee inflammation. Butler has been outstanding in this series by scoring 30.5 Points-Per-Game with the Heat posting an Offensive Rating of 131.2 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. His absence complicates matters for this team when they have the ball since point guard Kyle Lowry is out as well. Without either player, head coach Erik Spoelstra really only has Gabe Vincent as a reliable ball-handler and initiator of the offense. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when favored — and they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Unders. With Butler out and the Heat stymying the Hawks’ half-court, expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (539) and the Miami Heat (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-22 |
Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 213.5 |
|
77-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (51-35) evened this series at 2-2 with their 100-99 victory against the Mavericks as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Dallas (54-32) has still won six of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Dallas has also played 27 of their last 42 games at home Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Dallas goes back home where the Under is 47-20-1 in their last 68 games — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total when favored. The Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Utah has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 49 of their last 71 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. They hit the road again where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Dallas.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss of three points or less. 20* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-22 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
118-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-27) won their second straight game in this series with their 104-95 victory against the Timberwolves as a 2-point road favorite on Thursday. Minnesota (48-38) blew a 26-point lead in the game and now trail 2-1 in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Taylor Jenkins has made an important adjustment in this series which should generate lowering-scoring games. After the Timberwolves scored 130 points in their 13-point upset victory, Jenkins only played big man Steven Adams for less in three minutes in Game Two with the Grizzlies holding Minnesota to 96 points. Adams did not play in Game Three. Karl Anthony-Towns was too much for Adams to defend — but Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke have been a handful for Towns to handle. Towns scored only 8 points on Thursday while taking a mere four shots from the field. The T-Wolves scored just 12 points in the fourth quarter in their historic collapse which was the biggest blown lead in loss in the history of the NBA playoffs. Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to no more than 100 points. The Grizzlies are a very good defensive team who ranked sixth in the NBA by holding their opponents to scoring just 108.9 points per 100 possessions — and they are better on that end of the court when benching Adams (while losing his significant offensive contributions). Memphis is fourth in Offensive Rating this season — but they score -2.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road at a 112.3 rate, dropping to tenth in the league. The Grizzlies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Memphis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Minnesota is seventh in the NBA by scoring at a 113.8 points per 100 possession rate — but their offensive efficiency at home drops to 111.8 points per 100 possession rate which is 19th in the league. The Timberwolves are scoring just 95.5. Points-Per-Game in the last two games in this series — and now their leading scorer, Anthony Edwards, might be slowed with a knee injury. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The pace has slowed down in this series — and that is likely to continue. Memphis averages 94 shots per game — but they attempted only 83 shots on Thursday after taking 86 and 92 shots in the first games in this series. Minnesota averages 91 shots per game — but after taking 90 shots in Game One with Adams still in the rotation, the T-Wolves took only 76 shots in Game Two and 85 shots in Game Three. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Under the Total. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-22 |
Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 216 |
|
114-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the New Orleans Pelicans (506) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-19) comes off a 125-114 loss at home to the Pelicans as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. New Orleans (39-47) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns will miss Devin Booker who is out for at least two weeks with the Grade One hamstring injury he suffered in Game Two. Booker is the team’s best offensive player with a 26.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average with a 47% shooting percentage and a 38% clip from behind the arc. He also average 4.8 Assists-Per-Game. Phoenix scores 10 fewer points per 100 possessions without Booker on the court — and, surprisingly, they hold their opponents to 5.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when Booker is not playing. As it is, the Under is 20-5-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Under is also 15-5-1 in their last 21 games when playing with two days of rest. Phoenix goes on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And in their last 8 games played with two days of rest, the Pelicans have played 7 of these games Under the Total. New Orleans has allowed the Suns to nail 50% of their shots in both of the first two games in this series. They have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after posting a defensive field goal percentage of at least 50% in their last two games. The Pelicans are dominating the boards — they have out-rebounded Phoenix by 20 and 10 boards in Games One and Two. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning the rebounding battle by at least 10 rebounds in their last two games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when avenging a loss in a road game. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the New Orleans Pelicans (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-22 |
Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 223 |
|
111-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With the series-ending MCL strain to Khris Middleton on Wednesday, the Bucks lost their second-best player who made significant contributions on both ends of the court. But Middleton’s impact will probably be felt more on offense. Middleton is the chief ball-handler for Milwaukee — especially with George Hill still out with his abdominal injury — and he is the team’s second-leading scorer with 20.1 Points-Per-Game scoring average. He also dishes out 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Without Middleton, the Bucks lack a reliable scorer to complement Giannis Antetokounmpo — especially when playing on the road. The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Milwaukee has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 playoff games when they are favored. And in their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Milwaukee has played 15 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulls are only posting a 100.0 Offensive Rating in this series — but they have held the Bucks to just a 101.5 Offensive Rating. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were a home favorite laying at least 10 points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-18-22 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
106-126 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-35) looks to rebound from their 123-107 loss in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Golden State (54-29) has won six games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors made 52.4% of their shots on Saturday while nailing 16 of their 35 shots from behind the arc. Stephen Curry returned from injury to play over 21 minutes and score 16 points. But it was Jordan Poole who led the way with 30 points on 9 of 13 shooting. Overall, Golden State scored a scorching 129.4 points per 100 possession rate. With Curry rejoining Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Poole, the Warriors are a dynamic scoring team. But it is too much to expect consistent performances like what they did to the Nuggets on Saturday. The Regression Gods are likely coming for this team tonight. While they are a great outside shooting team, a clip more like their 37.2% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home is more likely tonight. And while Curry is a cheat code who unlocks scoring opportunities for others when he is not knocking down 3-pointers, Golden State scored at a 114.1 points per 100 possession rate with him on the court this season — so Game One’s numbers were definitely a high-end outlier. But the Warriors should play better on the other end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 46.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Golden State is second in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.6 points per 100 possessions — and much of those numbers were generating without an injured Draymond Green. They held their opponents to more than 3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Green on the court in the regular season. The Warriors were also third in the NBA by limiting their opponents to scoring at just a 91.2 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court where Denver does most of their damage via Nikola Jokic. Golden State has played 35 of their last 57 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — including 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 10 or more points. The Warriors have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning six in a row. And in their last 23 games when playing for just the second time in five days, they have played 17 of these games Under the Total. In their last five games at home in Chase Arena, Golden State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver should play better on defense as the 52.4% field goal percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets have issues on defense — but their starting five does hold their opponents to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions which would rank second in the league if compared to overall regular season averages. Perhaps head coach Michael Malone will adjust by shortening his bench even more. The Warriors made Jokic work very hard on both ends of the court on Saturday. He scored 25 points but he also took 25 shots from the field. Green will continue to make his life difficult. While he did not play in any of the four games in the regular season between these two clubs, Green had held Jokic to just 15.7 Points-Per-Game with a 47.9% field goal percentage in his previous 18 games in his career to defend him. The Nuggets lack a reliable secondary scorer to complement Jokic with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. still out with injuries. Denver only got to the rim for 20% of their shots in Game One — the Warriors may be able to reduce Denver to mostly a jump-shooting team. The Nuggets score 2.1 fewer PPG on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: While Game One finished Over the Total, these two teams have still played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games in Golden State Under the Total. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-22 |
Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 224.5 |
Top |
99-110 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-46) has won seven of their last ten games after their 105-101 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point on Friday. Phoenix (64-18) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-109 upset loss as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have proven they can ramp up their intensity on defense in the postseason after holding their two opponents in the Play-In Tournament to just 40.9% shooting which has resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. The Pelicans stay on the road to begin this series where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans has also played 25 of their last 34 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Phoenix allowed the Kings to nail 52.6% of their shots last week with their key players resting — that was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Under is 19-6-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss. Phoenix has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Suns play outstanding defense — they rank third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions. They host this game where they have played 4 straight Unders when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total in the with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 15th with the Suns winning in New Orleans by a 131-115 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Pelicans have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing on the road attempting to avenge a home loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-22 |
Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 217 |
|
105-101 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512) and Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (37-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 113-103 win against San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite in their first play-in game on Wednesday. Los Angeles (42-41) saw their five-game winning streak end with a 109-104 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog in their first play-in game on Wednesday. The winner of this game plays at Phoenix in Game One of the Western Conference Quarterfinals on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Now New Orleans goes on the road where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Los Angeles held the Timberwolves to just 43.4% shooting which was the fifth straight game that they have not allowed an opponent to shoot better than 44.2% from the field. The intensity of jockeying for playoff positioning along with the return of Paul George has resulted in the Clippers raising their level of play on defense. They have won six of their last eight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 11 contests Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. And while this is just their sixth game in the last 14 days, Los Angeles has played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total when playing for not more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. The Clippers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. With the news this afternoon that Paul George is out after his positive COVID test, the Under remains a solid 10* play. George led the team in scoring on Wednesday with 34 points on 10 of 24 shooting — and he nailed 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-22 |
Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 221.5 |
|
128-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). THE SITUATION: Golden State (52-29) has won four straight games after their 100-94 victory as a 7-point favorite yesterday. New Orleans (36-45) had their two-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 141-114 loss at Memphis as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams made the Western Conference playoffs — maintaining (or establishing) their intensity on defense should be important as they look forward to the postseason. The Warriors are dialed-in on the defensive end of the court after holding their last five opponents to just 41.4% shooting which has resulted in them allowing just 102.0 Points-Per-Game. Golden State needs to win tonight to ensure they are the third seed in the Western Conference — with the advantage of avoiding a potential showdown with Phoenix until the conference finals. The Warriors have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Golden State had covered the point spread in their previous four games — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. On the road, the Under is 22-9-1 in their last 32 games when favored — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. New Orleans played their worst defensive game in their last 14 games after allowing the Grizzlies to nail 58.9% of their shots yesterday. It was the third straight game where they allowed their opponent to make at least 51.3% of their shots. The Pelicans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to score at least 125 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after their last two opponents made at least 50% of their shots. New Orleans is locked in as the ninth seed and one of the Play-In Tournament games — but this is no time to not worry about improving their play on defense. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. The Pelicans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Brandon Ingram is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury — and if he does not play, New Orleans will be without one of their top two scorers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in the Big Easy. 10* NBA Golden State-New Orleans TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-22 |
Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 231.5 |
Top |
127-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (567) and the Chicago Bulls (568). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (48-30) has lost two games in a row with their 118-112 upset loss to Dallas as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (45-33) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 127-109 loss to Miami as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks allowed the Mavericks to make 51.3% of their shots on Sunday — and that was after they allowed the Los Angeles Clippers to nail 60.9% of their shots on Friday in a 153-119 upset loss at home as a 3.5-point favorite. Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez against the Clippers but they returned to the court on Sunday. With the playoffs looming and playing against a potential first-round opponent in the Bulls, this game is a good opportunity for the reigning NBA champions to re-embrace playoff intensity on the defensive end of the court. As it is, the Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Milwaukee has also played 4 straight Unders after losing two straight games at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after getting upset at home in their last two games. With Lopez back on the court after missing much of the season injured, he offers the team their best interior defender. His post-up ability also slows down their offense when they get into their half-court offense. With the potential of earning the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs still viable, the Bucks have plenty to still play for in the regular season. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. They have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Chicago allowed the Heat to nail 53.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They should tighten things up on defense tonight in this Central Division showdown. The Bulls have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. After a great start to the season, the Bulls have cooled off significantly — and a rash of injuries has not helped matters. The Bulls have lost nine of their last fifteen games whole posting a 110.3 Offensive Rating during that span, ranking 28th in the league. They are making only 46.5% of their shots with a 33.2% shooting mark from behind the arc in their last 15 games as compared to their 48.0% field goal percentage and 36.8% clip from 3-point range for the season. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulls have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 126-96 loss in Milwaukee on March 22nd — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a 20 point loss. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Chicago. The Bulls have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against Central Division opponents — and the Bucks have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow divisional rivals. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (567) and the Chicago Bulls (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-04-22 |
North Carolina v. Kansas UNDER 152.5 |
|
69-72 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tar Heels held Duke to just 42% shooting with them missing 17 of their 22 shots from behind the arc. That was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games — but it was an impressive defensive display against a Blue Devils team that was leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Tar Heels also pulled down 49 rebounds against Duke — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after grabbing at least 46 boards in their last game. Kansas made 54% of their shots in their victory against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. They also made 13 of their 24 shots (54%) from behind the arc despite only making 33% of their shots from the 3-point range. While the Jayhawks have 76 and 81 points in their last two games, they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. Kansas has really tightened things up in the second half of the season. While Villanova made only 39% of their shots, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Jayhawks’ last five games. Kansas has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after holding at least three straight opponents to no higher than a 40% field goal percentage. The Jayhawks have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games while Kansas ranks fourth in the nation in that defensive metric in their last ten games. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* CBB Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-22 |
North Carolina v. Duke OVER 150.5 |
|
81-77 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) and the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I concluded that the game script for this showdown should trend Over -- but the red flag I have struggled is with the strong historical numbers supporting Unders on neutral courts with the Total in the 150s (in the last five years, the Under is 390-290 (59%) in games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s). I realized what would convince me is to simply look at the data in the Final Four play in domes. Since 2011, four games were in domes with the Total in that point total range. The Under is 2-1-1 -- but last year's Gonzaga-Baylor game would have gone Over if it was a closer game than the Bears’ 86-70 victory (and I think this will be closer, so more likely to trigger the late free throw circus). There was also an Over with the total at 149.5 with Villanova beating North Carolina in 2016's Championship Game -- and that total opened at 151, so the historical data is real close to a 2-2-1 Over/Under mark. The sample size is way low, of course, but this data does conflict with the historical data I was worried about above. I am seeing a lot of evidence for the Over between these ACC rivals. The Blue Devils have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, Duke has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. North Carolina has played 3 games this season on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s — and all 3 games finished Over the Total. The Tar Heels have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is scoring 78.1 Points-Per-Game and Duke scores 80.1 PPG. These are two teams whose identity is on offense — they both rank in the top-8 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Blue Devils are the top-ranked team in that metric in the nation, the Tar Heels rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games. But these two teams rank 45th and 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so I do not see either coach deciding that defensive stops are the key to their success. The average for both the games these teams played this season was 164.5 combined points — so this line asks if this game in the Caesars Superdome will see more than 10 fewer combined points. These two teams have played 6 straight Overs in their last 6 battles — and I expect more of the same. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) and the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-02-22 |
Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 134 |
Top |
65-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 12 m |
Show
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At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Final Four game between the Villanova Wildcats (701) and the Kansas Jayhawks (702) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (30-7) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 50-44 upset victory against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (32-6) has won nine games in a row after beating Miami (FL) by a 76-50 score as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats will have to play this game without their leader in minutes, Justin Moore. The junior is second on the team with a 14.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average while adding 4.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 2.9 Assists-Per-Game. Villanova already plays at a snail’s pace — they average 19.9 seconds-per-possession, ranking 349th in the nation, and their games average only 62.6 possessions per game, ranking 345th in the country. Look for head coach Jay Wright to demand his team be even more patient on offense without Moore as a scoring option — they will probably average more than 20 seconds per possession. Wright will want to shorten this game — and then maybe Collin Gillespie and his veteran teammates can steal it late. This was the formula for success against Houston (even with Wright) as they only made 28.8% of their shots — but their defense stymied the Cougars who only made 29.8% of their shots. Villanova has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Wildcats rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency -- and that number improves to ranking 9th in the nation when evaluating Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. But in their ten games played on a neutral court, Villanova ranks 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency which is fine but -7.7 adjusted points per 100 possessions less than what they generate at home, where they rank 3rd in the nation. Incidentally, the Wildcats see their average possessions drop to a 61.7 average on neutral courts. Villanova has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Kansas is playing their best defense of the season after holding the Hurricanes to just 34.5% shooting last weekend. That was the fourth straight game where they did not allow an opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots from the field. Over their last ten games, the Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Kansas thrives when getting out in transition to score baskets — but this will be easier said than done against Villanova. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over to allow for these opportunities — they rank 29th in the nation by turning the ball over just 15.5% of the time. Head coach Jay Wright’s team is also masterful in switches — so they are comfortable defending in transition. Look for the Wildcats to bypass offensive rebounding to get back on defense — not only will that help stifle the Jayhawks' attack, but it will also limit their own second-chance scoring opportunities. Villanova will try to make up the difference with 3-point shooting since they attempt 46.1% of their shots from downtown, ranking 26th in the nation. But Kansas holds their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 17th in the country. By the way, while the Wildcats make 41.3% of their shots from 3-point range at home, ranking 6th in the nation, that proficiency plummets to a 31.9% clip when playing on a neutral court, ranking 183rd in the country — and those numbers include Moore’s contributions who is a 35.6% shooter from distance. The Jayhawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance — and the Jayhawks have played 28 of their last 41 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Final Four game between the Villanova Wildcats (701) and the Kansas Jayhawks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-22 |
Washington State v. Texas A&M UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
56-72 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (649) and the Texas A&M Aggies (640) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Washington State (22-14) won their seventh game in their last eight with their 77-58 upset victory at BYU as a 2.5-point underdog last Wednesday in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. Texas A&M (26-12) has won 10 of their last 11 contests with their 67-52 victory against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite in their Quarterfinals match on Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars made 43.9% of their shots against BYU which was their best shooting mark in their last five games. They are only making 38.3% of their shots in their last five games. Washington State finds success on the other end of the court where they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While BYU made 41.1% of their shots against them last week, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Cougars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Washington State has 75 and 77 points in their last two contests — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Cougars cannot shoot — they rank 263rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.1% while ranking 313th in the country by making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc. Furthermore, they have played 16 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing for no more than the second time in the last eight days. Additionally, Washington State has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to no better than 39.3% shooting after the Demon Deacons only made 34.0% of their shots against them last week. The Aggies have not allowed more than 65 points in six straight games — and their last two opponents in this tournament have not topped 60 points. Texas A&M has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home. This play on defense has helped the Aggies play four straight Unders. They have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Texas A&M wants to get their offense in transition by forcing turnovers — they rank eighth in the nation by triggering turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. But this is going to be tough against this Cougars team that only turns the ball in 16.4% of their possessions, ranking 50th in the nation. The Aggies can get bogged down in the half-court with their offense. They only make 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 231st in the nation — and they only made 29.0% of their 3-pointers in the SEC.
FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has played 4 straight Unders when the favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (649) and the Texas A&M Aggies (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-22 |
Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 232 |
|
118-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (46-28) had their two-game winning streak end with their 127-102 loss at Memphis as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Philadelphia (46-28) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 114-104 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played three straight Unders after their game with the Grizzlies finishing Under the 233 point total. Milwaukee has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The 76ers allowed the Suns to make 51.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. And while they only shot 41.6% from the field themselves, that was still the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The 76ers have also played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-22 |
Kings v. Heat OVER 216.5 |
|
100-123 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (537) and the Miami Heat (538). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (27-48) has won two straight games with their 114-110 upset victory at Orlando as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (47-28) lost their fourth game in a row with their 110-95 loss to Brooklyn as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kings pulled off their upset against the Magic by holding them to just 42.5% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Sacramento has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Despite the recent success, this team is in the tank with the playoffs most likely out of reach. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis have both been put on the shelf with injuries — and Josh Jackson is not playing tonight with an injury. The effort on defense has not been as strong as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to 49.1% shooting which is generating 121.4 Points-Per-Game for them. They stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to make 48.8% shooting which is resulting in 117.2 PPG for their home hosts. Sacramento has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Kings have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Miami’s 95 points on Saturday was the lowest-scoring output in their last eight contests. They have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Injuries have played a role in their recent losing streak — and Caleb Martin is still out with Tyler Herro and P.J. Tucker questionable. The attrition has impacted their play on defense as their last five opponents are making 48.1% of their shots which has resulted in them giving up 112.0 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 41 of their last 57 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Miami will be looking to avenge a 115-113 loss at Sacramento back on January 2nd. The Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (537) and the Miami Heat (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-22 |
Wizards v. Rockets OVER 233 |
Top |
97-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (533) and the Houston Rockets (534). THE SITUATION: Washington (30-40) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 127-119 win against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Houston (17-54) has lost five games in a row with their 122-98 loss to Memphis as a 12.5-point underdog yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wizards’ losing streak likely played them out of a spot in the postseason — and their play on defense has illustrated their loss of ambition. Washington allowed the Lakers to make 52.7% of their shots which was the seventh time in their last eight games where they allowed their opponent to make at least 50% of their shots. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Over is 14-3-1 in the Wizards’ last 18 games after a win — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Houston only made 43.0% of their shots against the Grizzlies which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten contests. The Rockies have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss by 10 or more points on their home court. The Over is 21-10-1 in Houston’s last 32 games after a point spread loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. They stay at home where the Over is 13-6-1 in their last 20 games at home — and the Over is 17-8-1 in their last 26 home games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and Washington has played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. 25* NBA Monday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (533) and the Houston Rockets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-22 |
Lakers v. Wizards OVER 227.5 |
|
119-127 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (583) and the Washington Wizards (584). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (30-40) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 128-123 upset win at Toronto as a 9-point underdog last night. Washington (29-40) has lost six games in a row after losing to New York by a 100-97 score as a 6-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wizards only made 43.0% of their shots last night in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 contests. But Washington remained competitive with the Knicks because New York only made 34.4% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 57 games. The Wizards had seen each of their previous six opponents make at least 50% of their shots — so that effort last night probably says more about the Knicks than it does about a sudden improvement in the play of the Washington defense. The Wizards have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing their third game in four days. They return home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have polled 13 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Additionally, Washington has played 5 straight Overs at home as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. LeBron James is doing everything he can to carry this team into at least a Play-In game opportunity in the postseason. This team is not nearly as good on defense as they were last year. Their last five opponents have made 47.9% of their shots which has resulted in 122.9 Points-Per-Game. The Lakers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total in non-conference play. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (583) and the Washington Wizards (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-22 |
Bulls v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
110-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (543) and the Utah Jazz (544). THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-27) lost their sixth game in their last eight with their 112-103 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (42-26) has lost two of their last three games with their 117-111 upset loss to Milwaukee as a 2-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. DeMar DeRozan has cooled off as of late with his shooting as he is making only 40% of his shots in his last eight games. Zach LaVine is not 100% with his knee. But while Chicago still misses the defensive presence of Lonzo Ball, they did get back Alex Caruso who gives them a boost on that end of the court. The Bulls stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. The Under is also 13-5-1 in Chicago’s last 19 games on the road as an underdog. They have also played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Jazz will be without their second-leading scorer tonight with Bojan Bogdanovic out with a wrist injury. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games when favored. Utah has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on October 30th when the Bulls upset the Jazz at the United Center by a 107-99 score. That game finished well below the 219 point total — the Under is now 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (543) and the Utah Jazz (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-22 |
Indiana v. Wyoming UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
66-58 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the First Four NCAA Tournament game between the Indiana Hoosiers (665) and the Wyoming Cowboys (666). THE SITUATION: Indiana (20-13) won their first two games in the Big Ten Conference Tournament before losing to Iowa by an 80-77 score as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Wyoming (25-8) comes off a 68-61 loss to Boise State as a 3-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hoosiers made 47.6% of their shots in their last-second heartbreaking loss to the Hawkeyes. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. First-year head coach Mike Woodson has his alma-mater playing outstanding half-court defense. Indiana led the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that rank 24th in the nation in that metric. It starts from their interior defense as are seventh in the country by holding their opponents to just 43.4% shooting inside the arc. Woodson has two outstanding defensive players inside in the 6’9 Trayce Jackson-Davis and the 6’8 Race Thompson — and they will present problems against the Cowboys’ offense. The “Post Up Pokes” run their offense inside-out with Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike capable of scoring when posting up but happy to pass to an open teammate if they are double-teamed. This is a game where Woodson’s chops as a long-time NBA head coach will help with a few defensive maneuvers to disrupt the flow of the Wyoming attack. Indiana dealt with several injuries during the regular season so their numbers do not adequately represent the team playing on the floor tonight. The Hoosiers’ defensive presence improved for the Big Ten tournament with the return of Trey Galloway and Rob Phinisee — and Jordan Geronimo is expected to be available after getting injured in the Big Ten Tournament. But the Indiana offense is not dynamic as it relies on not turning the ball over and getting to the free-throw line to reach their 71.5 Points-Per-Game mark. They only pull down 27.0% of their missed shots, ranking 213th in the nation and they force turnovers in 17.5% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 229th in the country. They only make 44.6% of their shots away from Bloomington, so if their shots are not falling, the offense can stagnate. But Indiana holds their opponents to just 39.1% shooting which translates into 65.9 PPG to keep them competitive. Wyoming made 42.6% of their shots against the Broncos in a losing effort — and that was the best shooting effort in their last five games. That contest finished above the 128.5 point total — and the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Wyoming is making only 38.4% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 62.2 PPG. While the Cowboys rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that ranking plummets to 124th in the nation when they are playing on the road. They make only 42.9% of their shots away from home which results in 67.0 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. But the Pokes’ defense does tighten up when away from Laramie. Wyoming’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency is 162dn in the nation when playing at home — but they improve to 43rd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They hold their opponents to 40.7% shooting and 65.7 PPG away from home. The Cowboys defend the perimeter well as they hold their opponents to just 30.3% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 32nd in the nation. Their offensive profile is like Indiana in that they bypass creating extra scoring opportunities — and their offensive identity is predicated on protecting the basketball and getting to the free-throw line. Wyoming thrives with their inside scoring as they make 52.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 32nd in the nation — but they may not have played a team with a better interior defense this season than what they will face against this Hoosiers team.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to a slow-paced rock fight. Wyoming has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog on a neutral court. Indiana has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight Unders when favored on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the First Four NCAA Tournament game between the Indiana Hoosiers (665) and the Wyoming Cowboys (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-22 |
Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana OVER 145 |
|
73-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders (306007) and the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306008) in the Championship Game of the Southland Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (22-11) won their third straight game in a 71-64 victory against Nicholls State as a 6-point underdog in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Southeast Louisiana (19-13) has won four in a row with their 74-65 victory as a 1.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Merrell Center in Katy, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Islanders advanced to play for the right to earn the Southland Conference’s automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament despite making only 42.4% of their shots, the lowest in their last four games. They are still making 47.0% of their shots in their last five games. The Over is 20-7-1 in Texas A&M Corpus Christi’s last 28 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have then played 16 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Islanders have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total against conference opponents. They have also played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total when an underdog — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games Over the Total when an underdog on a neutral court. Southeast Louisiana held New Orleans to just 40.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 30 games. The Lions allow their conference opponents to make 47.0% of their shots which generates 80.1 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring 82.6 PPG with a 48.6% of their shots in the conference. Southeast Louisiana has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Lions have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with one or zero days between games — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. Southeast Louisiana has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total in conference play — and they have played 4 straight Overs against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 13 games when favored, the Lions have played 10 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests after Southeast Louisiana beat the Islanders by an 83-74 score on February 17th. Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders (306007) and the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306008). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-22 |
Georgetown v. Seton Hall UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
53-57 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
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At (now) 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgetown Hoyas (673) and the Seton Hall (674) in the first round of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgetown (6-24) limps into the Big East Tournament on a 20-game losing streak after their 97-75 loss at Xavier as a 13-point underdog on Saturday. Seton Hall (20-9) has won five games in a row with their 65-60 upset win at Creighton as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Patrick Ewing’s first priority for the Hoyas in this tournament is to tighten things up on defense after they allowed the Pirates to make 54.7% of their shots. That was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Georgetown has played 4 straight Unders after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. The Hoyas have also played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The problems against Xavier started early as they went into halftime with a 54-30 deficit. Georgetown has played 8 straight Unders after trailing by at least 15 points at half-time of their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 45 points in the first half in their last game. While the Hoyas should play better on defense, they still cannot shoot the basketball. Georgetown ranks 319th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.5%. They make only 43.7% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 346th in the country. Their shooting is even worse away from home where they rank 328th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. The Hoyas make only 41.1% of their shots inside the arc on the road, ranking 357th in the nation — and their road 2-point shooting in the conference was even worse with a 40.9% mark. The Hoyas have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Seton Hall has held their last five opponents to 39.4% shooting which has resulted in those foes scoring only 63.6 Points-Per-Game. They rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Pirates have played two straight Unders — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Seton Hall only makes 40.5% of their shots on the road which generates 70.8 PPG which is -3.4 PPG below their season average. The Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140s. Additionally, Seton Hall has played 27 of their last 37 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates swept the Hoyas this season after beating them by a 73-68 score on March 2nd. Georgetown has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgetown Hoyas (673) and the Seton Hall (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-22 |
Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 230.5 |
|
111-132 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (583) and the Memphis Grizzlies (584). THE SITUATION: New Orleans Pelicans (583) had their four-game winning streak snapped after a 138-130 loss in overtime at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (44-22) has lost two of their last three games after their 123-113 upset loss at Houston as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have been playing better defense as of late — they are holding their opponents to 101.3 points per 100 possessions in the last two weeks. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. The 54.0% shooting clip that the Nuggets put up on them was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. They stay on the road where the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Memphis allowed the Rockets to make 52.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 47 games. Expect the Grizzlies to play much better on that end of the court tonight as their Defensive Rating ranks seventh in the NBA. Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Grizzlies can struggle to score if they do not get transition scoring opportunities — they rank just 23rd in the league by scoring only 92.5 points per 100 possessions. The Pelicans are seventh in the league with their opponents averaging 14.8 seconds per possession — so they do a good job of slowing teams down. Memphis returns home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and the Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games when favored. The Grizzlies have also played 33 of their last 46 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 121-109 loss at home to Memphis on February 15th — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when their opponent scored at least 110 points in the win. The rematch is in Memphis where these two teams have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total when facing each other. 10* NBA New Orleans-Memphis TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (583) and the Memphis Grizzlies (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-22 |
Canisius v. Fairfield UNDER 133 |
|
50-72 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Canisius Golden Griffins (609) and the Fairfield Stags (610) in the first round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association. THE SITUATION: Canisius (11-20) has won three games in a row with their 67-64 win against Siena as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Fairfield (14-17) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 57-41 loss at Saint Peter’s as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Griffins allowed the Saints to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. Canisius has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They go on the road where they are making just 38.3% of their shots away from home. The Golden Griffins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Under is also 13-5-1 in their last 19 games as an underdog. Fairfield only made 25.9% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort of their season. They are only hitting 37.6% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 57.8 Points-Per-Game. The Stags have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Toal after scoring no more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is a decisive 41-19-1 in Fairfield’s last 61 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Moving forward, the Stags have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Fairfield swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams after an 80-76 win on February 14th. The Stags have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court. Canisius has played 18 of their last 23 games Under the Total played on a neutral court. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Canisius Golden Griffins (609) and the Fairfield Stags (610). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-22 |
George Washington v. Fordham UNDER 135 |
Top |
66-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the George Washington Colonials (635) and the Fordham Rams (636). THE SITUATION: George Washington (12-16) had their two-game losing streak snapped with a 98-93 victory in triple overtime as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Fordham (13-15) has lost two of their last three games with their 81-73 loss at Massachusetts as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colonials' three-overtime game earlier this week was tied at 59 after regulation — so that contest was going way Under the 137 point total. George Washington made 47.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They have just the ninth-best offense in the Atlantic 10 Conference in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they drop to 12th in the conference in that metric when playing on the road. GW has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Colonials have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last contest. George Washington has the 12th worst defense in the Atlantic 10 in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they do improve to seventh best in that statistic when playing on the road in conference play. The Colonials have played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. George Washington has also played 6 straight Unders on the road with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Fordham allowed UMass to make 47.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 36-16-1 in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 27-11-1 in their last 39 games after a point spread loss. Fordham ranks just 13th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They return home where they hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting which results in only 63.6 Points-Per-Game. The Under is a decisive 42-16-1 in the Rams’ last 59 home games when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as the favorite. They have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham will be looking to avenge a 64-55 loss at George Washington as a 1-point underdog on January 30th. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the George Washington Colonials (635) and the Fordham Rams (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-22 |
Southern Utah v. Idaho State OVER 140 |
Top |
79-71 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (773) and the Idaho State Bengals (774). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (18-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 69-53 loss at Montana State as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Idaho State (7-21) has lost three of their last four games with their 73-69 loss at Portland State in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This game between two subpar defensive teams should be higher-scoring tonight. The Thunderbirds have the fourth-best defense in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Big Sky Conference — but they rank 232nd in that metric nationally. Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. The Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. They are making a healthy 47.4% of their shots in their last five games — but they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 48.9% from the field. They stay on the road where they are scoring 75.1 PPG while allowing 75.6 PPG. They have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games when favored. The Thunderbirds have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. The Over is also 26-10-1 in their last 37 games when favored. Idaho State ranks 324th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They managed to hold Portland State to just 15 first-half points on Saturday — but they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Bengals have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Idaho State has played four straight Overs — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing at least three Overs in a row. Now after playing those last three games on the road, they return home rehear they see their scoring average rise +6.1 Points-Per-Game to a 70.7 PPG mark. The Bengals have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Idaho State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah won the first meeting between these two teams by an 86-74 score as a 16.5-point favorite on January 22n. Idaho State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an earlier loss this season to their opponent. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (773) and the Idaho State Bengals (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-22 |
NC State v. Wake Forest OVER 150.5 |
Top |
76-101 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (717) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (718). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (11-18) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine games after their 84-74 loss to North Carolina as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Wake Forest (22-8) has won two of their last three games with their 99-77 win against Louisville as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Demon Deacons made 58.2% of their shots against the woeful Cardinals which was the best shooting mark in their last 21 games. But I do not consider that an outlier performance as much as it is evidence that this Wake Forest team will expose teams who are vulnerable on the defensive end of the court. The Demon Deacons now shot at least 53.7% from the field in seven of their last twelve games. Expect another higher-scoring game as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home where they scored at least 85 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home after a victory at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Demon Deacons did allow Louisville to make 50.8% of their shots which was the third time they allowed an opponent to shoot at that clip or higher in their last five games. Wake Forest plays at the fastest pace in the ACC — they average 16.8 seconds per possession. Their opponents play at the second-fastest possession in the conference by averaging 17.4 seconds per possession against them. The 69.9 average possessions per game in conference play leads the ACC as well. And when playing at home, the Demon Deacons play at the 25th fastest pace when looking at adjusted numbers (that eliminate garbage time). Wake Forest is 15-2 at home where they make 49.5% of their shots which generates 83.2 Points-Per-Game. They have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. They have also played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. NC State only made 37.9% of their shots in their loss to the Tar Heels on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. But the play of the Wolfpack defense is a bigger concern as the 51.8% shooting clip by North Carolina which was actually the sixth-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight games. NC State ranks 15th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.9% is the 296th worst mark in the nation. The Wolfpack have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while this is their second game since last Wednesday, they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They go back on the road where they are 4-8 with an average combined score of 150.0 points due to allowing 76.2 PPG. While the Wolfpack ranks eighth in the ACC in pace, they get lulled into playing faster on the road where they are playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the conference. NC State has played 35 of their last 51 road games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total in conference play. They have also played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: NC State is losing to avenge a 69-51 loss at home to Wake Forest on February 9th. The Wolfpack have played all 5 of their revenge opportunities this season Over the Total when getting beat by double-digits in their first meeting this season — and both games went Over this season when they were avenging a loss where they did not score at least 60 points. NC State has played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Wake Forest has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as the favorite. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (717) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-26-22 |
South Carolina v. Alabama OVER 154 |
|
71-90 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
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At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks (727) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (728). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (17-10) has won four in a row after their 66-56 upset victory against Mississippi State as a 21-point underdog on Wednesday. Alabama (18-10) has won four of their last five games after their 74-72 win at Vanderbilt as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Gamecocks made only 43.9% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. But they won the game by holding the Bulldogs to just a 35.8% field goal percentage in what was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. South Carolina has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game that did not see more than 125 combined points scored. The Gamecocks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They go back on the road where they have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total including their last four Over the Total. The Over is also 15-7-1 in their last 23 road games as an underdog. Additionally, South Carolina has played 5 straight Overs against teams winning at least 60% of their games -- and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. Alabama only made 37.9% of their shots against the Commodores in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They did hold Vanderbilt to just 35.8% shooting which was the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 15 contests. That game finished below the 153.5 point total — and the Crimson Tide has played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game including seven of these nine circumstances this season. Alabama has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Crimson Tide returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. Over their last five games, Alabama is scoring 80.0 Points-Per-Game — but they are allowing 77.4 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between two teams that played at the two fastest paces in the SEC. The Crimson Tide averages only 15.4 seconds per possession which is the ninth-fastest in the country. Alabama has played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 150s — and South Carolina has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number in the 150-159.5 point range. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks (727) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-25-22 |
Clippers v. Lakers OVER 221.5 |
Top |
105-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (517) and the Los Angeles Lakers (518). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Clippers (30-31) went into the All-Star break winning three of their last four games after their 142-111 win against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite last Thursday. The Los Angeles Lakers (27-31) snapped a three-game losing streak to go into the All-Star break with a 106-101 upset victory against Utah as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have been playing higher scoring games this month with head coach Tyronn Lue relying on Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann to give the team more minutes. Jackson and Mann give the team a boost on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers have a 50.6% field goal percentage in their last five games which has generated 112.2 Points-Per-Game. But that duo is not as effective on the other end of the court. The Clippers may rank seventh in the NBA in Defensive Rating — but they are just 20th in that metric this month. Not surprisingly, the Clippers have played 6 of their last 8 games this month Over the Total. The Over is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Clippers have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This team remains without their big two in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George — and they will be without their recent acquisition from Portland in Norman Powell who is out with a toe injury. Moving forward, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Lakers will be without Anthony Davis tonight as he is dealing with an ankle injury. That means more small-ball with LeBron James playing at the five position. The Lakers will likely try to play at a fast pace relying more on Russell Westbrook’s athleticism (with the hope he can finally break out of his “slump” — they are ride-or-die with him now after he was not dealt at the trading deadline). The Lakers went into the break making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games which were generating 112.8 PPG — but also allowed 114.2 PPG in those five contests. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at Crypto.com Arena Over the Total when favored — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by no more than six points. And in their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Lakers have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Furthermore, the Lakers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And while the Clippers allow 107.7 PPG this season, the Lakers have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 108 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Against Pacific Division rivals this season, the Lakers are allowing these opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which is resulting in 116.3 PPG. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against Pacific Division foes. The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two Los Angeles rivals. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (517) and the Los Angeles Lakers (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-22 |
Belmont v. Murray State UNDER 146 |
Top |
43-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Belmont Bruins (825) and the Murray State Racers (826). THE SITUATION: Belmont (23-5) won their tenth straight game with a 73-62 victory against SIU-Edwardsville as a 22-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (26-2) won their 15th straight game with a 62-60 victory at Tennessee-Martin as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Belmont needs to win this game to put themselves in a position to share the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season title. Expected a lower-scoring game between the two best defensive teams in the conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against a conference rival. Belmont has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Bruins are playing their best basketball of the season — and it has been led by their play on defense. Belmont has held their last five opponents to just 40.4% shooting which has resulted in just 59.2 Points-Per-Game. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Additionally, the Bruins have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Murray State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Racers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Murray State has not allowed more than 62 points in five straight games while holding their last two opponents to 60 or fewer points. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight contests. The Racers are scoring less on offense lately as well. They are shooting 2.9% below their season average in their last five games — and that 45.0% field goal percentage over that span is resulting in -7.3 PPG below their 79.7 PPG scoring average for the season. They return home where they are holding their guests to 38.7% shooting which is resulting in just 63.1 PPG. Murray State has played 8 straight home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 28 of their last 36 games Under the Total with the Total set in the range overall. The Under is also 16-7-1 in the Racers’ last 24 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against winning teams. Murray State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Murray State won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 15th by an 82-60 score as a 6-point underdog in Nashville. The Racers got 36 points in Justice Hill in that game who nailed eight shots from behind the arc in that game. Murray State made 51% of their shots in that contest while making 14 of their 25 shots from 3-point range in that game for a 56% clip. They are not likely to do that again tonight since they make only 33.2% of their 3-pointers in conference play — and their 3-point shooting drops to 29.9% at home in Ohio Valley play. Belmont holds their home hosts in conference play to just a 31.1% shooting mark from 3-point range when playing on the road. The Bruins have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Belmont Bruins (825) and the Murray State Racers (826). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-22 |
Evansville v. Drake OVER 127.5 |
Top |
51-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Evansville Purple Aces (703) and the Drake Bulldogs (704). THE SITUATION: Drake (17-9) is on a three-game losing streak after their 68-59 loss at Bradley as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Evansville (6-18) has lost two straight and five of their last six games after their 69-62 loss at Southern Illinois as an 11.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs only made 35.7% of their shots on Saturday while missing 10 of their 13 shots from behind the arc in the loss. Drake has played 6 straight Overs after not making more than three shots from behind 3-point range in their last game. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They return home where they are scoring +3.2 Points-Per-Game above their season average of 74.7 PPG. They lead the Missouri Valley Conference by pulling down 31.1% of their shots in conference play on their home court. Drake has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total at home against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 120s. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Evansville has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a loss on the road to a conference rival. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 6 straight road games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. This is the Purple Ace’s third game since Thursday — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days. They stay on the road where they are allowing +5.4 more PPG than their season defensive average with home hosts nailing 49.4% of their shots which is generating 74.2 PPG. Evansville ranks 332nd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.9% away from home with those teams making 38% of their 3-pointers and 55.3% of their shots inside the arc, both those marks rank 316th in the nation. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Purple Aces’ last 9 road games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games against teams scoring at least 60% of their games at home. Evansville has also played 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against winning teams.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Drake’s narrow 60-59 win at Evansville on January 8th. The Bulldogs have allowed their eight opponents to score at least 66 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs when favored at home by 12.5 to 18 points. Evansville has played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 15.5 to 18 points. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Evansville Purple Aces (703) and the Drake Bulldogs (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-22 |
CS-Northridge v. CS Bakersfield OVER 126 |
|
71-65 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cal-State Northridge Matadors (815) and the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (816). THE SITUATION: Cal-State Northridge (6-16) ended an eight-game losing streak with an 83-78 upset win at Cal-Poly SLO in double overtime as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Cal-State Bakersfield (6-12) has lost six games in a row after their 74-62 loss to UC Santa Barbara as a 3-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Expect a higher-scoring game between these two teams that have the 10th and 8th ranked defenses in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the Big West Conference. Cal-State Northridge went into overtime with the Mustangs on Thursday with the score tied at 59-59 — they held Cal-Poly SLO to just 24 points in the first half. The Matadors have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 24 points in the first half of their last game. Cal-State Northridge has also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a road win against a conference rival. Additionally, the Matadors have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset win against a Big West foe — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They are playing higher-scoring games of late. Their 68.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average in their last five games is +5.7 PPG above their season average. On defense, they have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which helps explain why they are allowing +5.1 PPG above their season of 70.9 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Cal-State Bakersfield only made 36.2% of their shots on Thursday in their loss to Gauchos. The Roadrunners have played 4 straight Overs after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Cal-State Bakersfield has played 6 straight overs when playing at home after a loss to a conference opponent — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing at least two in a row to Big West opponents. They stay at home where they are scoring +6.2 PPG above their 65.4 PPG season average. The Roadrunners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. Cal-State Bakersfield has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the Total set no higher than 129.5.
FINAL TAKE: Cal-State Northridge has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total in February — and they have played 4 straight Overs as an underdog. 20* CBB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Cal-State Northridge Matadors (815) and the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (816). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-22 |
Wright State v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 146.5 |
Top |
57-60 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (881) and the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (882). THE SITUATION: Wright State (15-10) has won four straight games after their 79-62 win at Wisconsin-Green Bay as an 8-point favorite on Wednesday. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (7-18) has lost six in a row after their 75-39 loss to Northern Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers shot a season-low 27.3% from the field against the Norse on Wednesday. They should shoot much better tonight as they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not making more than 33% of their shots in their last game. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a loss by 20 or more points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they make a modest — but certainly much better than on Wednesday — 44% from the field which is generating 68.7 Points-Per-Game.
|
02-09-22 |
Xavier v. Seton Hall UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
71-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (701) and the Seton Hall Pirates (702). THE SITUATION: Xavier (16-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 69-65 upset loss to DePaul as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. Seton Hall (14-7) has won two games in a row with their 74-55 victory against Creighton as a 5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates shot 49.1% from the field on Friday against the Bluejays in what was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They held Creighton to just 16 points in the first half after Georgetown to only 28 points in the first half in their last game. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. Head coach Kevin Willard’s team ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In their last five games, they are limiting their opponents to just 37.1% shooting which is resulting in only 67.2 Points-Per-Game — a -8.7 PPG drop from their season defensive average. At home, Seton Hall holds their opponents to just 39.5% shooting which is resulting in just 65.7 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored. They have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total overall when the favorite — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Xavier allowed the Blue Demons to mark 47.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Musketeers have played 22 of their last 31 games on the road Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Xavier has also played 5 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Musketeers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while Xavier has only covered the point spread once in their last eight games, they have then played 33 of their last 49 games Under the Total on the road after failing to car the point spread in at least five or six of their last seven games. Xavier has the 43rd best defense in the nation as measured by Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to 42.6% shooting which has resulted in only 66.6 PPG — a -6.6 PPG drop from their defensive season average. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. And in their last 4 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games, they have played all 4 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Xavier has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and Seton Hall has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total in the 140s. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (701) and the Seton Hall Pirates (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-22 |
Pacers v. Hawks OVER 226.5 |
|
112-133 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (505) and the Atlanta Hawks (506). THE SITUATION: Indiana (19-36) has lost three straight games after their 98-85 loss at Cleveland as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (25-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 103-94 upset loss at Dallas as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers only made 37.3% of their shots on Sunday against the Cavaliers which was the lowest shooting effort in their last 23 games. They also held Cleveland to just 40.5% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 14 contests. The Over is 4-1-1 in Indiana’s last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after a loss by 10 or more points. The Pacers have been playing more Overs lately given injuries that are forcing them to play more small-ball. Center Myles Turner remains out with an injury — and big man Isaiah Jackson is questionable with an ankle injury. Damontas Sabonis did return to the court on Sunday to give head coach Rick Carlisle another big man — but he was traded to the Sacramento Kings today leaving the Pacers thin upfront once again. Indiana has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta only made 38.9% of their shots on Sunday against the Mavericks which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Atlanta returns home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Big man John Collins has been upgraded to probable with his heel injury — and the Pacers lack the players to slow him down in the paint. The Over is 15-5-1 in the Hawks’ last 21 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Overs when facing each other — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when Atlanta is hosting the game. The Hawks won the last meeting between these teams on December 1st by a 114-111 score as a 2-point underdog — and the Pacers have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss this season including six of their last opportunities for revenge from a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (505) and the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-22 |
Southern Utah v. Montana OVER 140.5 |
Top |
67-78 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (905) and the Montana Grizzlies (906). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (15-6) is on a four-game winning streak after their 84-72 victory against Eastern Washington as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Montana (15-8) has lost two games in a row after their 86-63 upset loss at Idaho State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunderbirds have the top-rated offense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the Big Sky. They have scored at 75 points in eight straight games while reaching at least 81 points in six of those contests. They are scoring 81.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games. They have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Southern Utah has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win at home by double-digits. Their triumph against the Eagles was preceded by a 16-point victory against Idaho last Thursday — and the Thunderbirds have played 6 straight Overs after winning their last two games at home by 10 or more points. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days on the road. Now after playing their last three games at home, Southern Utah goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing their last three games at home. They are scoring 75.0 PPG on the road — but they are allowing 78.4 PPG in those nine games. The Thunderbirds have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Montana has allowed 83.0 PPG in their last two games. They have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. They return home where they are a perfect 11-0 while making 48.6% of their shots which is generating 79.0 PPG. The Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 34 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. They have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Montana will likely give the Thunderbirds plenty of opportunities at the charity stripe tonight — they rank 333rd in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. Southern Utah is 53rd in the nation in getting to the free-throw line.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Montana has played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (905) and the Montana Grizzlies (906). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-22 |
Hawks v. Mavs OVER 222 |
|
94-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (549) and the Dallas Mavericks (550). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (25-27) has lost two of their last three games after their 125-114 loss at Toronto as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Dallas (30-23) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 107-98 win against Philadelphia as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Ignore the season-long Under team trends for the Dallas Mavericks tonight. After a stretch where they played 13 of 14 games Under the Total, Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and there are fundamental reasons why they are playing higher-scoring games. Both of the teams tonight are dealing with injuries — and that should produce more playing time for lineups that will lead to higher-scoring games. The Mavericks have been without Tim Hardaway, Jr. in the last five games, and Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last three games after only playing 11 minutes in their game against the Pacers two Saturdays ago. These absences have meant that Jason Kidd has given more playing time to Reggie Bullock — a good offensive player with limitations on defense. Bullock has averaged 18.2 Points-Per-Game in the five games since the Hardaway injury while playing just under 31 minutes per game. Dallas has seen at least 234 combined points scored in three of their last four games. In Bullock’s last two games, he has averaged 21.5 PPG while playing 36 and 38 minutes. Additionally, Maxi Kleber has also been declared out (after being listed as questionable earlier today) with the knee injury that kept him out of Friday’s game against the 76ers. The Mavericks will miss his defensive presence inside — Philadelphia made 51.4% of their shots against Dallas which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Dallas has stepped up their offensive efforts with Bullock getting more playing time as well. They have an Offensive Rating of 122.3 in their last five games while scoring 132 points on two separate occasions. Luka Doncic still leads the way for this team — he poured in 33 points in the victory against the Sixers. Atlanta may be without John Collins, Danilo Gallinari, and Lou Williams tonight who are all listed as questionable. If Collins cannot play, DeAndre Hunter will be inserted into the starting lineup which means more small-ball for the Hawks — and that lends itself to higher-scoring games. Atlanta does have Bogdan Bogdanovic back in the mix to complement Trae Young in the offensive attack. The Hawks are making 49.7% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 115.0 Points-Per-Game. Atlanta is second in the NBA with an Offensive Rating of 113.4 — but their underwhelming play this year can be blamed on their decline at the other end of the court where they rank 27th with a Defensive Rating of 107.2. The Hawks have played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. Atlanta has also played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and the Mavericks have played 4 straight Overs as a favorite. 10* NBA Atlanta-Dallas ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (549) and the Dallas Mavericks (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-22 |
Minnesota v. Iowa OVER 147.5 |
Top |
59-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (861) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (862). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (11-8) has lost three games in a row after their 88-73 loss to Purdue as an 11-point underdog on Wednesday. Iowa (14-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 90-86 upset loss in double-overtime at Penn State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Ignore the final combined score in the Hawkeyes’ loss to the Nittany Lions as the game went into overtime tied at a low score of 66-66. Iowa made only 35.1% of their shots in that game, their third-lowest field goal percentage of the season. The Hawkeyes have been cold with their shooting as of late as they have not made more than 40.7% of their shots in four straight games. But styles and opponents make fights — Iowa has played Penn State twice over that span who do everything they can for their games to devolve into rock fights. The other two games Iowa has played were against stout defensive teams in Purdue and Rutgers. The Hawkeyes still score 82.8 Points-Per-Game which is the sixth-highest mark in the nation — and they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance to help see more of their shots fall. The extended time off will help — Iowa has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. This team wants to play at a fast pace — they rank seventh in the nation by averaging just 15.2 seconds per possession. They return home where they make 47.6% of their shots which helps them generate 88.8 PPG. The Over is 24-9-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 34 games at home — and they have played 7 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Iowa has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when favored. In theory, Minnesota will want to slow the pace — but, in practice, this will be difficult to accomplish if and when the Hawkeyes take a comfortable lead. The Golden Gophers are last in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.5% is also last in the conference. Minnesota allowed the Boilermakers to make 55.6% of their shots on Wednesday — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total. They go back on the road where they are 5-3 this season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Additionally, the Golden Gophers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa will not have head coach Fran McCaffrey on the sideline today as he is in COVID quarantine but that should have much impact on today’s game (and the players may shoot the ball better without the hothead constantly screaming at them). Minnesota will be looking to avenge an 81-71 loss at home to the Hawkeyes on January 16th. The Gophers have palled 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 75 points including playing five of these six circumstances this season. Minnesota will be sped up in this one by Iowa, who should hold a comfortable lead — and this dynamic should produce our Over. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (861) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-22 |
George Mason v. La Salle OVER 136.5 |
Top |
78-83 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the George Mason Patriots (651) and the LaSalle Explorers (652). THE SITUATION: George Mason (11-8) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 92-90 upset loss to Saint Louis as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. LaSalle (6-13) is on a five-game losing streak after their 89-87 loss at George Washington as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Patriots are one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They are top-34 in the country in both 2-point and 3-point shooting — and their effective field goal percentage of 55.2% is 20th best in the nation. They only made 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday in their loss to the Billikens which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games — they had made at least 51% of their shots in their previous three games. George Mason has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where their defense does wane a bit. The 73.3 Points-Per-Game they allow away from home is +6.0 PPG above their season average — and they allow their opponents to make 44.3% of their shots on the road as compared to the 41.6% of their shots they allow overall. George Mason has played 28 of their last 38 road games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number in the 130s. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. LaSalle is just 5-6 at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total at home with the Total in the 130s. They rank 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed at least 77 points in their last three games with all three of those contests seeing at least 146 combined points. The Explorers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in three straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games when they have lost at least three in a row, LaSalle has played 10 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Explorers have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and George Mason has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 20-40% range. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the George Mason Patriots (651) and the LaSalle Explorers (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-22 |
Bulls v. Pacers OVER 230 |
Top |
122-115 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (515) and the Indiana Pacers (516). THE SITUATION: Chicago (32-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 127-120 loss at Toronto as a 4.5-point underdog last night. Indiana (19-34) has lost five of their last seven games with their 119-118 upset loss to Orlando as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Injuries have significantly impacted both teams — and the result will be mostly small-ball tonight between two teams that playing higher-scoring games given the attrition that both teams are dealing with right now. Interestingly, the oddsmakers initially set the Total at 232.5 — about six points higher than any Pacers game this season. The market has considered this lunacy and bet it down a few points. But the line was set that high for a reason. Head coach Rick Carlisle may have no centers on his roster. After Goga Bitadze suffered a foot injury before Monday’s game with the Clippers, Carlisle had to rely on rookie Isaiah Jackson as his only center — and he did respond with 26 points and 10 rebounds in a 122-116 victory. But Jackson was then injured very early in the game with the Magic on Wednesday — and all Carlisle had left was to play rookie free agent Terry Taylor at center despite his 6’5 frame. Taylor did score 24 points with 16 rebounds in his 37 minutes as he looked to justify his two-way contract by flourishing in the frenetic pace of that game. Jackson will remain out tonight. So while Bitazde is listed as questionable with his ankle, Carlisle may have to use Taylor in significant minutes at the five spot tonight — and that is a recipe for a fast pace and little defense from the Pacers. How will Taylor defend Nikola Vucevic? The 6’10 behemoth is scoring 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging 11.5 Rebounds Per Game. Indiana is already without Damontas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Myles Turner — and they have seen three straight and five of their last six games generate at least 230 combined points. In their last five games, the Pacers are making a healthy 46.5% of their shots which is generating 116.8 PPG — but they are allowing their opponents to make 49.5% of their shots which is resulting in 127.0 PPG over that span. Not having Turner defend the paint significantly derails Indiana’s defensive foundation. It remains telling that Orlando put up 119 points despite only making 44.2% of their shots which was the Pacers’ best defensive effort in their last 12 games. The Over is 3-0-1 in Indiana’s last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, the Pacers have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home when they were favored. They have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as the underdog. Chicago got 30 points from Vucevic last night in their losing effort to the Raptors — so he is poised for another big game. The Bulls only made 47.8% of their shots last night after generating a field goal percentage of 51.1% in each of their previous four games. But they did hold Toronto to just 42.5% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games — and their third-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 13 contests. Chicago has now played four straight games where at least 246 combined points were scored. They are making 52.3% of their shots in their last five games which are producing 121.8 PPG but allowing their opponents to shoot 48.6% from the field and score 118.8 PPG. They are playing high-scoring games without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso — and they might not play Zach LaVigne or Coby White tonight on the second of back-to-backs with them nursing nagging injuries. But head coach Billy Donovan will have DeMar DeRozan leading the way in the Bulls’ small-ball attack. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs when playing without rest — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing their third game in four days. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Bulls’ last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games on the road when favored, Chicago has played 9 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have won the last two meetings between these two teams after their 108-106 road win on December 31st. Indiana has played 29 of their last 41 games Over the Total when avenging a loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (515) and the Indiana Pacers (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-22 |
North Carolina A&T v. Winthrop OVER 147 |
|
54-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina A&T Aggies (306185) and the Winthrop Eagles (306186). THE SITUATION: North Carolina A&T (9-13) has lost three in a row after their 84-64 loss to USC Upstate as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Winthrop (11-8) has lost two of their last three games with their 92-88 loss at Longwood as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies only made 35.8% of their shots on Saturday against USC Upstate which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But the troubling defensive play for this NC A&T team continued as they allowed USC Upstate to make 51.9% of their shots. The Aggies are 11th in the Big South in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which is translating into 77.0 Points-Per-Game. North Carolina A&T should be able to generate some second-chance scoring opportunities. The Aggies lead the Big South by rebounding 36.9% of their shots — and they play an Eagles team that is 10th in the conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 29.7% of their misses. UNC A&T has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Aggies have palled 8 straight Overs after losing three of their last four contests. UNC A&T has played six straight Overs — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after playing their last game over the Total. The Aggies have also played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Now they go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Winthrop has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Eagles have scored 95 and 88 points in their last two games — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing at home after scoring at least 85 points in two straight games. And while Winthrop has seen their last two games see 180 and 186 combined points, the Eagles have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after seeing at least 165 combined points in two straight games. They return home where they are 6-0 at home where they are making 52.1% of their shots which is generating 79.8 Points-Per-Game. Winthrop has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total at home when favored. This Eagles team lead the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%.
FINAL TAKE: Winthrop has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. North Carolina A&T has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 20* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina A&T Aggies (306185) and the Winthrop Eagles (306186). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-02-22 |
Tulane v. Houston UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
62-73 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (697) and the Houston Cougars (698). THE SITUATION: Tulane (9-9) has won two straight games after their 67-66 upset win at Wichita State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Houston (18-2) has won ten games in a row after their 63-49 win at Central Florida as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are trending down in their offensive attack as of late. They are making just 43.5% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 71.6 Points-Per-Game — both marks down from their 46.5% shooting percentage for the season which is resulting in 76.9 PPG. Houston has not reached 80 points in five straight games. They have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Under is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They return home where they are 11-0 this season while limiting their opponents to just 33.3% shooting which is resulting in just 52.3 PPG. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Tulane has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Green Wave have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset win. And while Tulane has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. They stay on the road where they only make 42.9% of their shots. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane has played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog — and Under is 7-3-1 in Houston’s last 11 games when favored. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (697) and the Houston Cougars (698). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-31-22 |
West Virginia v. Baylor OVER 138.5 |
Top |
77-81 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (895) and the Baylor Bears (896). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (13-7) has lost five games in a row after their 77-68 loss at Arkansas as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Baylor (18-3) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 87-78 loss at Alabama as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears should be in a feisty mood after losing for just the second time in the Big 12/SEC Challenge on Saturday. Baylor has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing their second game in the last three days. They return home where they are making 49.0% of their shots which is translating into 81.8 Points-Per-Game. Baylor has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The Bears should dominate the offensive glass in this game against Bob Huggins’ team that allows their opponents to rebound 33.9% of their missed shots, ranking 343rd in the nation. Baylor is fifth in the country by rebounding 37.5% of their missed shots — and that mark improves to 38.6% when they are playing at home. The Over is 25-12-1 in the Bears’ last 38 games when they are favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And while the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least three games in a row. West Virginia is struggling on the defensive end of the court — they are last in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and it is because of their half-court defense as they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.4%. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.0% of their shots which is translating into 77.8 PPG. But the Mountaineers do have success in generating extra scoring chances by forcing turnovers in 24.0% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 15th in the nation. West Virginia can generate scoring transitions against this Bears team who turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions, ranking 205th in the nation. The Mountaineers forced 13 turnovers at a 19.1% rate against Baylor in their first meeting two weeks ago. Now West Virginia goes back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has also played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Baylor won the first meetings between these two teams in Morgantown by a 77-68 score as a 4.5-point favorite on January 18th. The Mountaineers have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (895) and the Baylor Bears (896). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-26-22 |
Albany v. UMass Lowell UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
64-62 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Albany Great Danes (1147) and the UMass-Lowell River Hawks (1148). THE SITUATION: Albany (7-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped with an 86-75 loss to Stony Brook as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. UMass-Lowell (9-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-61 loss at New Hampshire as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Great Danes allowed Stony Brook to make 55.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. And Albany’s meager 44.8% field goal percentage in that game was actually the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Great Danes have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 6 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.7% of their shots which is generating only 60.3 Points-Per-Game. Albany has played 37 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 26 road games as an underdog, the Great Danes have played 19 of these games Under the Total. Albany is playing tough on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 41.0% shooting which is resulting in only 61.4 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning no more than 40% of their games. UMass-Lowell allowed New Hampshire to make 46.4% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent field goal percentage in their last 11 games. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the River Hawks have not scored more than 29 points in the first half in six straight games, they have then played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half of at least two straight games. They are making just 41.3% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 63.4 PPG. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just 37.6% shooting which is resulting in 61.2 PPG. UMass-Lowell has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when at home and favored. The River Hawks have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Albany and UMass-Lowell rank 332nd and 308th respectively in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. These two make only 29.3% and 27.7% of their shots from behind the arc — ranking 304th and 339th in the country. In their first meeting on January 12th, they combined to make only 7 of their 31 shots from behind the arc for a 22.6% combined clip in a game that the Great Danes won by a 57-47 score as a 2-point underdog. The River Hawks have played 6 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB America East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Albany Great Danes (1147) and the UMass-Lowell River Hawks (1148). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-25-22 |
Auburn v. Missouri OVER 141 |
|
55-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (649) and the Missouri Tigers (650). THE SITUATION: Auburn (18-1) won their 15th straight game with their 80-71 win against Kentucky as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Missouri (8-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 86-76 loss at Alabama as an 18-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play point to a higher-scoring game than expected. Auburn has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win in conference play. Auburn has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Auburn has registered at least 80 points in six straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where they scored 80 or more points. Head coach Bruce Pearl’s team is 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. On the road, they are scoring 81.4 Points-Per-Game on 46.4% shooting. In their last five games, Auburn is nailing 49.5% of their shots. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Missouri demonstrated some concerning signs on offense on Saturday by making 9 of their 24 shots (37.5%) from behind the arc. They are making 48.1% of their shots in their last five games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. But head coach Cuonzo Martin’s team ranks 13th in the SEC on Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Missouri returns home where they have played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Missouri has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri has played 7 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. Auburn has played 4 straight Overs against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (649) and the Missouri Tigers (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-23-22 |
Clippers v. Knicks UNDER 205.5 |
|
102-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
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At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (561) and the New York Knicks (562). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (23-24) won its second game in their last three games with their 102-101 victory at Philadelphia as an 8.5-point underdog on Friday. New York (22-24) has dropped two games in a row with their 102-91 win against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks allowed the Pelicans to make 50% of their shots which was tied for the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 14 games. New York has played 38 of their last 55 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Knicks have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. New York stays at home at Madison Square Garden where they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Clippers stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on their home court. Los Angeles has also played 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: To compound matters for New York, they may be without one of their most reliable scorers in Kemba Walker who is questionable with a knee injury. Walker has regained a spot in the starting lineup given the injury to Derrick Rose last month. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Knicks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when favored. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (561) and the New York Knicks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-18-22 |
Air Force v. Boise State UNDER 120.5 |
Top |
56-62 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Air Force (653) and Boise State (654). THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-6) has lost two in a row and five of their last six games after their 75-68 loss to Nevada as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Boise State (12-4) has won nine games in a row with their 71-63 win at New Mexico as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom — and they have held their last five opponents to just 39.7% shooting which has translated into just 59.4 Points-Per-Game. But head coach Leon Rice will want a better effort from his team on defense after they allowed New Mexico to make 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up all season. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. Boise State is also an excellent rebounding team. They have held their last three opponents to no more than 29 rebounds — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 31 boards in three straight games. They held the Lobos to just three offensive rebounds on Saturday — and they have then played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not allowing more than five offensive rebounds in their last contest. The Broncos rank sixth in the nation by limiting their opponents to pull down just 21.2% of their missed shots. Air Force is simply not going to get many second-chance scoring opportunities tonight — they only rebound 18.8% of their missed shots, ranking 353rd in the nation. But Boise State is a bad shooting team themselves. They make only 60.3% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 355th in the nation. They only nail 32.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 216th in the country. The Broncos have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home with the Total in the 120s. Air Force has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons made only 38.2% of their shots in that game. They have made just 39.3% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in just 53.4 PPG. They go back on the road where they score only 56.9 PPG on 43.6% shooting. Air Force has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 7 straight road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their home games. The Falcons have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Air Force has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boise State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Air Force (653) and Boise State (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-14-22 |
Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
99-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Philadelphia 76ers (508). THE SITUATION: Boston (21-21) has won three games in a row after their 119-100 upset win at Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Philadelphia (23-17) had their seven-game winning streak end with their 109-98 upset loss to Charlotte as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston made 51.3% of their shots in the upset win against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics have been a disappointment on the offensive end of the court this season. They rank just 23rd in the league in Offensive Rating. Too often, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown settle for isolation basketball rather than getting a better rhythm to their offense to generate better shots. Rookie head coach Ime Udoka has not offered much schematically to correct these issues either. The Celtics did allow Indiana to make 46.5% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Boston has been outstanding on the defensive end this season — they rank 5th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Even after Wednesday’s game, the Celtics have held their last five opponents to 96.0 Points-Per-Game on 42.8% shooting. The Under is 33-15-1 in Boston’s last 49 games after a double-digit victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. The Celtics have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia allowed the Hornets to make 51.7% of their shots in the loss on Wednesday. The 76ers still rank 3rd in the league in their last ten games in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Under is also 7-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Sixers are just 8-9 this season on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home. The 76ers have also played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road (Boston: 8-13 on the road) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are missing some players including Danny Green and Shake Milton. Marcus Smart is questionable for the Celtics. The Sixers pulled the upset against Boston on December 20th with their 108-103 victory — and Boston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Celtics have also played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss. These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Philadelphia 76ers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-12-22 |
Southern Illinois v. Missouri State UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
76-81 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (9-5) has won four of their last five games after their 63-60 upset win at Valparaiso as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri State (11-6) and their three-game winning streak end with an 85-84 upset loss at Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical situation for the Under. The Salukis have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Southern Illinois nailed 55.6% of their shots from the field in that game — but they are still only making 43.1% of their shots on the road. The Salukis score just 59.7 Points-Per-Game on the road — but they allow only 62.7 PPG in those eight games. Southern Illinois has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Salukis have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Missouri State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bears have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Missouri State allowed the Panthers to make 51.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Bears are second in the Missouri Valley Conference so far this season by holding their conference opponents to just 50.0% shooting inside the arc after four games. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Missouri State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against winning teams. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-09-22 |
Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 222 |
|
101-105 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (14-25) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 101-96 win against Golden State as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Toronto (19-17) is on a five-game winning streak after their 122-108 win against Utah as a 12-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their best defensive game in their last four contests after holding the Warriors to just 42.5% shooting. New Orleans has allowed at least 115 points in four of their last six games. They are giving up 114.8 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting over their last five games. The Pelicans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, New Orleans has played 4 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total in January. Toronto has scored at least 116 points in five straight games — they are averaging 120.5 PPG over that stretch. They have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win by 10 or more points. The Raptors have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have played 7 straight games Over the Total. Toronto has also played 8 straight Overs at home when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-22 |
Nebraska v. Michigan State OVER 148.5 |
Top |
67-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (6-8) has lost six of their last seven games after their 87-79 loss in overtime against Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Michigan State (12-2) won their seventh straight game with a 73-67 win at Northwestern as a 3-point favorite on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have allowed at least 70 points in nine of their fourteen games this season — and they play at the 9th fastest possession length in the nation so they are comfortable playing higher-scoring games under head coach Fred Hoiberg. Nebraska has played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Cornhuskers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation although much of that is by design since Hoiberg wants to sacrifice defensive rebounding for potential fast break scoring chances. They have been out-rebounded by at least eight boards per game in their last three contests — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded by at least six boards in three straight games. They rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.5% of their misses on the offensive — and now they travel to East Lansing to face a Spartans’ team that is 47th in the nation by rebounding 33.8% of their missed shots. Nebraska has allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 85.8 Points-Per-Game. Now the Cornhuskers go back on the road where they are allowing 90.3 PPG. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Nebraska has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total in the 140s. Michigan State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. The Spartans held Northwestern to just 32.3% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But Michigan State only made 38.5% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the lowest mark in their last eight games and the second-lowest field goal percentage all season. Even after that shooting effort, the Spartans have shot 48.6% from the field in their last five games. They rank 15th in the nation by making 38.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are making 40% of their 3-pointers in their three Big Ten games. They should make plenty of 3s against this Cornhuskers defense that ranks 281st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.0% of their 3-pointers — and they are allowing their Big Ten foes to nail 44.3% of their shots from downtown. Five-star freshman Max Christie is finding a rhythm having scored in double-digits in four of his last six games. And head coach Tom Izzo has found an answer at point guard by splitting time between Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard. They return home to the Breslin Center where they are scoring 81.3 PPG on 47.0% shooting. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Spartans’ last 4 games at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams score at least 75 PPG. Michigan State has played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by at least 12.5 points. Nebraska has played 30 of their last 45 road games — and 10 of their last 15 road games — Over the Total when an underdog in the 12.5 to 18 point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-22 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
|
94-104 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (525) and the New York Knicks (526). THE SITUATION: Indiana (14-23) has lost four in a row after their 108-104 loss at Cleveland as a 4.5-point underdog on January 2nd. New York (17-20) has lost two in a row after their 120-105 loss at Toronto as an 8-point underdog on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers only made 44% of their shots against the Cavaliers — and that was still the best shooting performance in their last four contests. Indiana stays on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. The Pacers have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Indiana has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York shot 44.9% from the field against the Raptors which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. And while Toronto made 47.7% of their shots against them on Sunday, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in the last five games that Tom Thibodeau’s team has allowed. The Knicks have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. New York has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record, the Knicks have played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and these teams have played 9 of their last 13 encounters in Madison Square Garden Under the Total. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (525) and the New York Knicks (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-21 |
Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 |
Top |
124-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-15) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 116-111 upset win at Portland as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (14-13) has won three of their last four games with their 113-107 win against Washington as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 27 of their last 37 road games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The 111 points they allowed to the Trail Blazers was their lowest in their last four games. Minnesota has let their last five opponents make 49.6% of their shots which has translated into 120.2 PPG. Now the T-Wolves stay on the road where they are scoring 111.1 PPG while allowing 113.9 PPG. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. D’Angelo Russell is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. Denver will be without JaMychal Green who is also dealing with an ankle — but Aaron Gordon and Will Barton have been upgraded to probable. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Denver has also played 11 straight Overs after allowing at least 100 points. They are scoring 113.6 PPG in their last five games — but they are surrendering 113.0 PPG on 48.7% shooting in those five games as well. The 45.6% shooting they held the Wizards to on Monday was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Nuggets are now playing their sixth game in the last ten days — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at least their sixth game in ten days. Denver has played four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total in December going back to last season. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 218.5 |
|
127-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (563) and the San Antonio Spurs (564). THE SITUATION: Denver (12-13) has lost two of their last three games after a 123-111 setback on the road against the Spurs on Thursday as a 2-point underdog. San Antonio (9-15) has now won five of their last seven games with the victory two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots on Thursday. Denver has allowed eight of their last twelve opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Denver allowed New Orleans to make 52.2% of their shots in their previous game on Wednesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, the Over is 25-9-1 in the Pelicans’ last 35 games after a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Nuggets allow their home hosts to score 110.4 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting when on the road this season. That helps explain why they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. On the positive side, the Nuggets are scoring 108.8 PPG in their last five games — more than 4 PPG above their season average. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. The Spurs score 114.1 PPG on their home court while making 48.5% of their shots. San Antonio has played 20 of their last 27 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while Denver is 5-9 on the road, the Spurs have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 straight Overs when playing in San Antonio. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (563) and the San Antonio Spurs (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-21 |
Knicks v. Nets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
110-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (531) and the Brooklyn Nets (532). THE SITUATION: New York (11-9) has won two of their last three games after their 99-90 victory at Atlanta on Saturday. Brooklyn (14-6) had their four-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 113-107 upset loss to Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks probably played their best defensive game of the season against the Hawks. New York held Atlanta to just 35.5% shooting — the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season — and the 90 points they gave up was the second-lowest mark of the year. Not coincidentally, head coach Tom Thibodeau did not play Kemba Walker in the game — and he announced yesterday that he was removing Walker from the rotation completely. Walker was a high-priced free-agent signee in the offseason from Boston to provide an offensive spark. He has scored 11.7 Points-Per-Game in the 24.5 minutes per game he has played this season. His removal from the rotation will lead to lower scoring games for the Knicks since the team will lose his outside shooting but benefit from getting closer to Thibodeau’s expectations of the play of their defense. New York has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. In their last five games, they are scoring 102.2 PPG on 41.9% shooting — a drop of -4.1 PPG from their season average. The Knicks stay on the road where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. New York has also played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total with the Total in the 210-219.5 point range. Additionally, the Knicks have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. The Nets stay at home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when favored. Brooklyn has won seven of their last nine games in a stretch fueled by the play of their defense. In those nine games, the Nets rank sixth in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They will be without sharpshooter Joe Harris indefinitely with his shoulder injury.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (531) and the Brooklyn Nets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-21 |
San Francisco v. UAB UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
63-61 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884) in the Finals of the Las Vegas Invitational. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-0) won their opening round game in this holiday tournament with a 71-61 victory as a 13-point favorite last night. UAB (5-1) comes off an 86-73 victory against New Mexico as an 11-point favorite last night in this event. This tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row. San Francisco is tough on the defensive glass — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 20% of their missed shots. Head coach Bob McKillop has his team play tough defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting which is resulting in only 62.6 Points-Per-Game. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. UAB has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. After losing at South Carolina, the Blazers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games. UAB has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 10 straight Unders after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while the Blazers have scored 86 points in each of their last two games after being held to 63 points in their loss to the Gamecocks, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. They are averaging 86.7 PPG on 48.7% shooting this season — but in their two games away from home, that productivity drops to 74.5 PPG on 42.1% shooting. UAB has held their last five opponents to 62.4 PPG on 41.1% shooting. They are 31st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 42.3% shooting inside the arc — and the Dons have been living inside with a 61.8% shooting mark for their 2-point shots which is fourth-best in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-1-1 in the Blazers’ last 8 games as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a dog getting up to three points. San Francisco is scoring 79.9 PPG — but this is just their second game away from home after scoring 71 points last night in Vegas. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Las Vegas Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-21 |
Wizards v. Pelicans UNDER 211.5 |
|
102-127 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (527) and the New Orleans Pelicans (528). THE SITUATION: Washington (11-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 109-103 upset loss as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (3-16) has lost four of their last five games with their 110-96 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wizards are playing great defense under rookie head coach Wes Unseld Jr. That Unseld is getting solid defensive contributions from Montrezl Harrell is extraordinary when considering he was pushed out of the Lakers’ rotation last season due to his play on that end of the court. Washington ranks 5th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. The Wizards have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 41.7% shooting from the field which is resulting in only 100.9 PPG. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Wizards rank just 20th in the league in Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring only 100.0 PPG on the road. Additionally, Washington has played 6 straight Unders as a favorite — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams not winning at least 40% of their games. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a double-digit loss. The Pelicans rank just 26th in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring just 96.4 PPG in their last five games. They stay at home where the Under is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games as an underdog. New Orleans has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Washington won the last meeting between these two teams by a 105-100 with the Total set at 208 back on November 15th. These two teams have played 20 of their last 27 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games in the Big Easy Under the Total. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (527) and the New Orleans Pelicans (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-21 |
Raptors v. Grizzlies OVER 217 |
|
126-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Memphis Grizzlies (526). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-10) has lost four of their last five games after a 119-104 upset loss as a 9-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (9-8) has won three of their last four games with their 119-118 upset win at Utah as an 11-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors made only 39.4% of their shots on Sunday which was the second-lowest field goal percentage of the season for them. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Memphis has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Grizzlies return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Memphis is last in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency — but they also rank a respectable 10th in Offensive Efficiency. Toronto ranks 8th in the league in Offensive Efficiency — but they are a disappointing 21st in Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and 25 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the number in that 210-219.5 point range. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Memphis Grizzlies (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-21 |
Pistons v. Rockets UNDER 210.5 |
|
112-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-8) has lost four in a row after their 96-90 loss to Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog on Friday. Houston (1-9) has lost eight in a row with their 120-107 loss at Golden State as a 12.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons made only 37.9% of their shots against the Nets. They have only made more than 40.9% of their shots once in their first nine games of the season. Detroit is last in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency as they begin to build their offense around Cade Cunningham who start to the season was delayed by injury. They are scoring only 94.9 Points-Per-Game on 39.4% shooting this season — and in Cunningham’s four games since returning from an ankle injury, they are scoring only 92.8 points per 100 possessions. Last year’s first-round pick, Killian Hayes, continues to disappoint after coming to the US after playing in France. The Pistons have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They go on the road where they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in Detroit’s last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and the Under is 18-7-2 in their last 27 games as an underdog. Houston has played 4 straight Unders after a double-digit loss at home. They allowed the Warriors to make 51.8% of their shots which was the second-highest field goal percentage mark that they have surrendered this season. The bigger issue for this team has been on offense. Rookie Jalen Green entered the week making only 35.3% of his shots. Kevin Porter, Jr. is shooting just 36.7% from the field entering the week — and his transition to point guard has been marred by turnovers. The Rockets turn the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions which is the highest mark in the league. This is the main reason why they rank third-to-last in Offensive Efficiency. They return home where they make only 41.9% of their shots. The defense at home has been solid — they hold their opponents to 43.1% shooting and 106.7 PPG. Houston last played at home on October 28th — and they have played 35 of their last 52 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Rockets have played 36 of their last 51 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 6 straight Unders against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-21 |
Nets v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
95-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (7-3) has won five straight games after their 116-103 victory at Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday. Chicago (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 114-105 loss to Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets made 51.9% of their shots yesterday in what was the best shooting effort of the young season for them. They also allowed the Raptors to make 47.1% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season and highest in their last eight games. Even with yesterday’s numbers, Brooklyn has allowed their last five opponents to make just 41.8% of their shots. The Nets rank 6th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Brooklyn has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Nets’ starting five combined to play 168:17 minutes yesterday, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing a game where the starting five combined to play at least 160 minutes. Brooklyn stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 15-5-1 in their last 21 games as an underdog. Chicago allowed the 76ers to make 53.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. They had not allowed their opponents to make more than 49.4% of their shots before Saturday. The Bulls rank 7th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Chicago stays at home where they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total. The Bulls have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when facing each other — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at Chicago. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-21 |
Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-28) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-119 upset loss at home to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (61-33) can win the NBA Championship tonight with their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The high-scoring game I expected for Game Four was a game late. The Suns not only blew a 16-point lead at the end of the first quarter but also a 55.2% clip from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They made 13 of their 19 shots from behind the arc for a 68% shooting percentage of their 3s. But Phoenix allowed Milwaukee to make 57.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 25 games. Chris Paul declared after their Game One victory that they want to play with pace in this series. In hindsight, that appears to be a mistake. The Bucks are winning this series with rebounding and transition points — and more possessions fuel that edge for them. I will not be surprised if the Suns look to slow the pace of this game down to take the advantage of the veteran leadership Paul provides them in close games. As it is, Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They go back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee’s 57.5% shooting from the field was the best shooting effort in their last 87 contests going all the way back to January 4th. It was the second-best offensive performance of the season. They nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods — especially with the pressure of closing out the series to win the title. These Game Sixes are tricky for a home team with a 3-2 series lead. While they have a bird in the hand on a potental seventh game, there often is stress and anxiety of feeling the urgency to end things in front of their home fans. The Bucks should play better on defense after letting Phoenix make more than 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played all 3 games Under the Total this season after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. The Under is also 4-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 |
Top |
123-119 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (60-33) has won the last two games of this series to even things at 2-2 after their 109-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (65-27) has lost four of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks rallied to win Game Four despite allowing the Suns to make 51.3% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in Milwaukee’s last 15 games. The Bucks neutralized Phoenix’s shooting edge by creating more scoring opportunities from offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Milwaukee held a +12 edge in turnovers by forcing 17 turnovers and only coughing the ball up five times. The Bucks have played 4 straight Unders after having a turnover edge of +10 or better in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee goes on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-2 in the Bucks’ last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games overall. Phoenix lost Game Four despite that 51.3% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Phoenix did not cover the point spread in their last two losses in Milwaukee. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: I thought both teams would enjoy sharp offensive games in Game Four — and I was wrong on that front. The Suns’ 51.3% shooting percentage disguised their weak 7 of 23 (30%) clip from behind the arc. Milwaukee made only 40.2% of their shots — but they were saved by Phoenix being sloppy with the basketball and too often playing out of control. The Suns were simply playing too fast — and their likely correction to limit the turnovers that killed them is to slow the pace. With the winner of Game Five seizing control of the series, I expect teams to be nervy. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 Game Fives Under the Total. With the number still in the high-210s, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-21 |
Suns v. Bucks OVER 220 |
Top |
103-109 |
Loss |
-105 |
44 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce-back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. Paul commented after Game One that his team wants to push the pace — and they should be rested with the extra day off between games. The Over is 47-23-1 Phoenix’s last 71 games when playing with two days of rest. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-1 in the Suns’ last 18 games on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has also played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when the Total is set at 220 or higher. Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at by double-digits. Returning home was what the Bucks players not named Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to jump-start their shooting. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined to make 14 of their 28 shots including 8 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. The Over is 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last 4 games at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Over is also 16-4-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 straight Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and I expect this to be the wildest game yet in this series since it remains critical for the Bucks to win the game. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
Suns v. Bucks OVER 219.5 |
|
100-120 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the Milwaukee Bucks (506) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-25) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 118-108 win against the Bucks as a 4.5-point spread favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (58-33) returns home having lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after losing their last two games by double-digits on the road. They have played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a point spread win. The Suns have also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Phoenix has played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Now the Suns go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 16-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the Milwaukee Bucks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 221.5 |
|
108-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Despite the 11-point loss, the Bucks nailed 16 of their 36 shots from behind the arc for a 44.4% shooting clip. Milwaukee entered the NBA Finals making only 31.1% of their 3-point shots — and they are hitting just 34% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs on the road. The Bucks have played three straight Overs — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Additionally, the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Milwaukee allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). The Bucks should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. Milwaukee’s opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range when just one of the teams is playing their second game in five days (both Milwaukee and Phoenix trigger this angle), the game finished Under the Total in 91 of these last 134 situations. 10* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219.5 |
|
105-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Phoenix Suns (502) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games. Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. The Bucks have played 34 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. And while Game Six with the Hawks finished Over the 218 point Total, Milwaukee has then played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bucks have covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when playing teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 opening games in a new playoff series Under the Total. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division opponent. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. The Suns made 56.4% of their shots to close out their series with the Clippers last Wednesday — that was the best shooting effort in their last 40 games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home underdog. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Phoenix Suns (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-31) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 123-112 win at home against the Hawks as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Atlanta (51-38) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Under is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Atlanta has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 216.5 |
|
112-123 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (541) and the Milwaukee Bucks (542) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-37) evened this series at 2-2 with their 110-88 upset win at home against the Bucks as a 5.5-point underdog. Milwaukee (56-31) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement on the over/under is the other important dynamic to consider. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. A letdown — especially on the road — is likely. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. On the road, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Milwaukee should tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Milwaukee has also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total at home Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Bucks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With the playoff pressure intensifying, expect a lower-scoring game between these two teams far from 100%. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (541) and the Milwaukee Bucks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers UNDER 215 |
|
130-103 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (531) and the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort on the defensive end of the court should be coming tonight. Phoenix has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Phoenix goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Los Angeles returns to the Staples Center where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. The Clippers have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. Phoenix has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were favored by at least 7 points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (5
|
06-29-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 |
Top |
88-110 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games when playing teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost the last two games by 34 and 11 points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging two straight games by 10 or more points. These two teams have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday — so was that an outlier or indicative of a downward trend? I suspect it is the latter. This Los Angeles team is tired — both physically from the every-other-day grind of the NBA playoffs and emotionally for having dug itself three straight 0-2 series holes. Without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has taken the leadership role on offense — and he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game in the playoffs which is almost seven more minutes per game than his regular-season average. The Clippers are only making 34.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in this series, a far cry from their 41.8% clip during the regular season. Los Angeles has tired legs — and the Suns are forcing them to take more difficult shots from behind the arc. The Clippers have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home against a Pacific Division rival. The Under is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LA has played 4 straight Unders after failing to crack 90 points in their last game. The Clippers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason — but they are down to just 109.4 points per 100 possessions against Phoenix. Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and the Under is 35-17-3 in their last 55 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Phoenix has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional rival. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The 164 combined points finished over 50 points below the 217.5 total set for Game Four. The empirical data suggests another lower-scoring game is coming. In games with the Total set at 210 or higher, when a team with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range faces a team with a winning record after a game that finished at least 36 points below the Total, this game finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 |
|
113-102 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (55-30) evened this series at 1-1 with their 125-91 victory at home as an 8-point favorite on Friday. Atlanta (50-36) had their two-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks shot 52.1% shooting percentage from the field in Game Two which was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering four or five of their last six games. They head back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. The Under is also 7-2-1 in the Bucks’ last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when they are favored. Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks made only 41.5% of their shots with Trae Young struggling by making only 6 of 16 shots including just 1 of his 8 shots from behind the arc for 15 points. He struggled with Milwaukee’s adjustment to pick-and-roll coverage that played higher-up on him to take away the floaters that burned them in Game One. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Hawks’ Bogan Bogdanovic has struggled since suffering a knee injury in Game Six of their series with Philadelphia. He has not scored more than 9 points in four straight games despite being Atlanta’s primary scoring option after Young. The Hawks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. The Hawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 30 or more points. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns v. Clippers OVER 218 |
|
84-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should back to their 114.4 PPG scoring average tonight. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a road favorite. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Clippers have also played 13 of their last 17 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog including their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 |
|
91-125 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-35) took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 116-113 upset victory on the road against the Bucks as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee (54-30) has still won four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks shot 49.5% from the field in Game One which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. It will be difficult for Trae Young to replicate his 48-point effort. He was thriving in the midrange making 13 of his 21 shots inside the arc while taking advantage of the Bucks’ drop coverage on pick-and-rolls. That game was the worst defensive effort for Milwaukee in their last six games. The Bucks should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. Mike “Never Makes Adjustments (according to his lazy critics)” Budenholzer only played Brook Lopez for just eight minutes in the second half with him on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. Lopez was getting burned playing drop defense in the pick-and-roll against Trae Young who was torching him with floaters — but Budenholzer’s move to a small lineup with Antetokounmpo playing the five helped to limit Young to making just two of his eight floaters in the second half. Expect more smaller lineups from Budenholzer tonight. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upset wins after beating Philadelphia on the road in Game Seven in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks have played 10 straight road games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upsets on the road. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Milwaukee has played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bucks have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series — including their last four. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. These two teams have also played 4 of their last meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-21 |
Suns v. Clippers OVER 221 |
|
92-106 |
Loss |
-102 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572) in Game Three of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 104-103 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (55-32) trails by an 0-2 mark in a playoff series for the third straight time this postseason.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Phoenix won Game Two despite shooting 50% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns may have an insurmountable edge in Deandre Ayton who Los Angeles does not have an answer for down low. Ayton is averaging 22 PPG on 75.9% shooting while pulling down 11.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this series. Only Ivica Zubac has come close to slowing down Ayton. DeMarcus Cousins has a -38.2 Net Rating when he is on the court in this series with the Suns scoring at 138.2 points per 100 possession rate. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, Los Angeles may not have a suitable alternative to Cousins. And if the Clippers are playing Zubac, that means more points for both teams. Los Angeles has scored 116 points per 100 possessions with Zubac on the court in this series. The Over is 11-5-1 in the Suns’ last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Los Angeles only made 45% of their shots on Tuesday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Paul George has made only 11 of his 29 shots in this series and Marcus Morris has made just 3 of his 13 shots — both should play better back on their home court. The Clippers have played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Clippers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Phoenix-LA Clippers ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 227 |
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116-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (49-35) has won three of their last four games after their 103-96 upset win at Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Milwaukee (54-29) has won four of their last five games after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Brooklyn by a 115-111 score as a 2-point favorite in Game 7 on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Atlanta has also played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after an upset victory. And in their last 31 games after winning two of their last three games, the Hawks have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 21 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Hawks have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. While there is a cottage industry of folks thinking they are better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because he doesn’t make enough “adjustments”, the veteran head coach in his third Conference Finals does not get enough credit for his defensive tactics. The Bucks are holding their playoff opponents to 105.0 points per 100 possessions — and these opponents have just a 51.2% effective field percentage in the playoffs. But the Milwaukee offense struggled against a suspect Brooklyn defense last round — they scored at just a 101.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new playoff series Under the Total. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 104-99 loss on the road against the 76ers on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-27) had lost the last two games in this series before forcing a Game Seven with the win in Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After scoring at least 118 points in each of the first three games of this series, the Sixers have not scored more than 106 points in the next three games. That downtrend coincides with the slide in Joel Embiid’s play as he continues to manage with the right meniscus tear in his knee. Embiid scored only 22 points on 37.5% shooting on Friday. Philadelphia is favored to win this game and move on to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Atlanta has played 17 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination in their history — and they have played 16 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total in closeout games. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
115-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
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At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-29) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 104-89 victory at home as a 5-point favorite. Brooklyn (55-28) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when getting the points. Milwaukee is playing elite-level defense in this series. Going into Game Six, the Bucks held Brooklyn to just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and then they held the Nets to only 89 points. Brooklyn is averaging only — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. The Nets are averaging only 103.7 PPG in this series —and they have not scored more than 96 points in three of their last four games in this series. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (and despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets had just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series before Game Six. The Under is 34-16-1 in Milwaukee’s last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. While there is now an entire cottage industry of NBA “experts” who think they could get more out of this Bucks’ team than Mike Budenholzer because they have thoughts on how they would better deploy his rotation patterns, Budenholzer has coached amazing results on the defensive end of the court in this series. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nets’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss by 10 or more points. For the second-straight game, Brooklyn trailed at halftime by double-digits. They were in the hole by a 59-48 score on Thursday after trailing, 59-43, on Tuesday. The Nets have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in their last two games. They return home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. Brooklyn has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams stumbling into the finals with major question marks from their star offensive players. Kevin Durant was sublime in Game Five — but playing every minute on Tuesday seemed to sap his energy on Thursday as he only got to the free throw line twice while committing seven turnovers and missing six of his eight shots from 3-point land. James Harden is not close to 100%. Joe Harris is making only 30.9% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the NBA in 3-point shooting with a 47.5% clip. Middleton is struggling away from home — and Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-18-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 221 |
|
119-131 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-24) has lost the last three games of this series after getting upset by a 119-111 score as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (54-30) has won five of their last seven games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Utah has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Jazz have not covered the point spread in three straight games in this series — but not only have they played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games, but they have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Utah misses Michael Conley as a second playmaker in this series and to take some of the pressure off Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell’s productivity has declined as the series has moved on — he made only 6 of his 19 shots on Wednesday and is shooting under 40% in the series after Game Two. The Jazz have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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