01-08-21 |
South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina OVER 145.5 |
|
65-78 |
Loss |
-113 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (843) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (844). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (7-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 62-49 loss at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Coastal Carolina (7-2) saw their three-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 70-62 loss to Georgia State as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars made only 34% of their shots on Saturday which was their lowest field goal percentage of the season. Yet they did hold the Eagles to 40.4% shooting which was tied for the best defensive effort in their last seven games. South Alabama has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Jaguars struggle on defense — they rank 321st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 59.6% of their shots inside the arc which is 334th in the nation — and in their five games away from home, they are allowing teams to connect on 64.5% of their 2-point shots. South Alabama has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. The Jaguars do make 49.1% of their shots which is resulting in a healthy 80.8 PPG. Coastal Carolina is scoring 90.7 PPG on 51.6% shooting from the field. Yet they only made 39.6% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. The Chanticleers have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while Coastal Carolina has played two straight Unders, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. This team is sixth in the nation by pulling down 39.6% of their missed shots — and they should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against this Jaguars team that is 294th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.8% of their misses. The Chanticleers stay at home where they are 7-1 while scoring 92.4 PPG on 52.8% shooting. Coast Carolina has played 5 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: South Alabama has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (843) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (844). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-21 |
Washington State v. California OVER 127.5 |
Top |
71-60 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). THE SITUATION: Washington State (8-1) lost their first game of the season on Saturday in their 86-82 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog. California (5-6) has lost their last two games with their 73-64 loss at Oregon State on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: There are two unusual circumstances to this situation that make a mathematical projection for the total in question. First, the Golden Bears will be without their top two scorers in Matt Bradley and Grant Anticevich. Bradley played only 13 minutes on Saturday before injuring his ankle that will keep him out tonight. Anticevich is still recovering from an appendectomy from last month. Their absences remove 28.1 PPG combined from their lineup. And they will be playing a Cougars team that is allowing only 60.8 PPG on 34.2% shooting from the field. But Washington State has played a very soft strength of schedule that is largely responsible for those gaudy defensive numbers. Ken Pomeroy’s metrics calculate that the Cougars’ strength of schedule has been the 309th easiest in the nation. The number is in the high-120s — and dropping. I think it is too low for this Pac-12 clash. California has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Losing Bradley and Anticevich is a two-sided coin because Cal also loses their defensive contributions. As it is, the Golden Bears are allowing their Pac-12 opponents to score 74.4 PPG while making 48.7% of their shots in five games. If Washington State approaches those numbers, this game flies Over. They return home where the players asked to make up for the baskets Bradley and Anticevich would be making will feel more comfortable. This team did make 51.2% of the shots against the Beavers. California has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Washington State has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six-game. Now they go on the road for the first time all season — and I suspect this will impact their defensive numbers. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. Additionally, Washington State has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of over 60% at home (Cal is 4-1 at home).
FINAL TAKE: I value team trends for two reasons: (1) they can identify a personality of a team regarding how they respond to certain situations and (2) they can expose biases in how the market perceives certain teams. The latter is particularly in play here. The market tends to overestimate the value of the Washington State defense. That means a soft number for us — which is what I think were are experiencing tonight. Cal has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. I think they find enough scoring from their remaining roster to push this game into the 130s. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-21 |
Wichita State v. Houston UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). THE SITUATION: Wichita State (6-2) has won five games in a row after their 83-79 upset win at Ole Miss on Saturday as an 8-point underdog. Houston (8-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season at Tulsa by defeating SMU on the road on Sunday by a 74-60 score as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Shockers made 9 of their 20 shots from the behind the arc on Saturday against the Rebels despite going into that game with a 33% shooting percentage from downtown. Expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight — especially against this Cougars team that is 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 24.5% shooting from 3-point land. Wichita State made 52% of their shots in that game in what was their best offensive performance of the season. But Wichita State has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Shockers have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while Wichita State has scored at least 81 points in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. The Shockers allowed Mississippi to make 41.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they allowed in their last four games. Wichita State holds their opponents to 38.9% shooting — and their last five opponents are shooting just 36.0%. Now they go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Shockers have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Houston has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. The Cougars made 39.1% of their shots which was actually their best shooting mark in their last three games. Houston has only had preseason American Athletic Conference Player of the Year for four games this season — and now Caleb Mills has decided to transfer. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is now, more than ever, defined by their play on defense. They are seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank seventh in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.0%. They hold their opponents to only 55.0 PPG on their home court on 36.2% shooting. The Under is 21-5-1 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Houston has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-21 |
Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 216 |
|
116-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Toronto Raptors (553) and New Orleans Pelicans (554). THE SITUATION: Toronto (1-3) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 100-83 win against the New York Knicks as an 8.5-point favorite. New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 113-80 win at Oklahoma City as a 6-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors were our NBA Game of the Month on New Year’s Eve and we were rewarded with them playing their best defensive game of the season as they held the Knicks to just 36.4% shooting. That level of play should continue for head coach Nick Nurse whose team was second-best in the NBA last year in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Toronto has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. The Raptors have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Yet Toronto is struggling on the offensive end of the court as they tend to do when they get stuck into just their half-court offense. They are making only 41.3% of their shots which is translating into only 101.5 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. New Orleans is still not getting enough credit from the betting public about their immediate improvement on defense under new head coach Stan Van Gundy. They have held their five opponents to just 99.2 PPG on just 43.4% shooting from the field. They played their best defensive game of the season against the Thunder by holding them to just 37.5% shooting. The Pelicans also made 48.4% of their shots which was their best shooting effort for the season — so regression is likely. New Orleans has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They return home where they have played 6 straight games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on December 23rd where the Pelicans won in a 113-99 upset as a 4-point underdog. New Orleans has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored. 20* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Toronto Raptors (553) and New Orleans Pelicans (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-20 |
Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 224 |
Top |
86-111 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-1) has won two of their last three games with their 98-95 win at San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (2-1) rebounded from their first loss in nine games going back to the bubble by avenging their loss to the Kings with a 116-110 win in Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 48.9% of their shots which was the best shooting mark so far in their three games this season. But Phoenix has played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Suns saw the Kings make 47.4% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the young season as well. Phoenix has played of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Suns return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total when favored. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This game flew Under the 227.5 point total as well — and the Pelicans have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. New Orleans made only 38.3% of their shots which is concerning since they made only 39.7% of their shots in their previous game at Miami. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Pelicans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has seen only 204.7 combined points in their first three games — and Phoenix has seen only 211.0 combined points in their first three games. While matchups make fights, the Pelicans are clearly emphasizing defense under first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy and the Suns’ improvement in the bubble that seems to be carrying over was in part because of improved emphasis on their defensive play (particularly in the emergence of Mikal Bridges). Nice value here. 25* NBA TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-20 |
Grizzlies v. Nets UNDER 230 |
Top |
116-111 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). THE SITUATION: Memphis (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 122-112 upset loss to Atlanta as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (2-1) lost their first game of the season yesterday with their 106-104 upset loss at Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Memphis has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis is throwing up a bunch of shots — they have launched 95 and 93 shots in their first two games. But the Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Furthermore, Memphis has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has made it point to play outstanding defense according to Kevin Durant. They have held their first three opponents to just 39.9% shooting — and these three foes have scored only 100.0 PPG against them. The Hornets shot 44.8% from the field which was the worst defensive performance for the Nets this season. Look for this Brooklyn team to tighten things up on defense. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing without rest. UPDATE: Head coach Steve Nash has announced that both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will get the night off given load management after playing yesterday. With the team already missing Dinwiddie, that is plenty of scoring not available tonight. The team trends above capture the personality of this Nets’ team playing in the bubble without Durant and Irving last season — so the Under situation remains very good.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn suffered terrible news earlier today with the announcement that Spencer Dinwiddie will be out the season with a torn ACL that he suffered yesterday. Memphis has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-20 |
UCLA v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
58-73 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (385) and the San Diego State Aztecs (386). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) returns all five starters that were 19-12 before play was stopped in March due to COVID. San Diego State (30-2) lost three starters including All-American point guard Malachi Flynn who was drafted in the first round by Toronto from the group that was 30-2 before the stoppage.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I am cautious in these early college basketball games — especially on the opening day during a pandemic. But with the Bruins returning five starters from last year’s team, I am more comfortable relying on the statistics from last year. UCLA was more-and-more beginning to look like Mick Cronin’s teams at Cincinnati who played hard-nosed defense while crashing the glass on offense at a moderate (at best) pace. While the Bruins ranked 100th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, Cronin had his team playing as the 43rd best defensive team in adjusted efficiency in their final ten games. UCLA was not a great offensive team last season either — they ranked 206th in the nation with their 69.3 PPG scoring average while ranking 230th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.4%. They only made 32.2% of their 3-pointers as well which was 226th in the country. The Bruins were pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots which was 21st in the nation — but the Aztecs usually do a good job of protecting their defensive rim which is a foundation of the program that head coach Brian Dutcher has continued from being the long-time assistant here to Steve Fisher. San Diego State held their opponents to rebounding only 25.4% of their missed shot last year. UCLA has played 34 of their last 45 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 130-139.5 point range — and those numbers tightened to them playing 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total with the number in the 130-134.5 point range. San Diego State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home. Additionally, the Aztecs have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played a decisive 21 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog at home. Dutcher gets back his 6’10 sophomore rim protector Nathan Mensah this season after he only played 13 games last year before going on the shelf with a blood clot issue. San Diego State held their opponents to just 56.3 PPG when Mensah was healthy — and that number rose to 61.3 PPG after his injury.
FINAL TAKE: The California programs had the least amount of time to practice given state COVID restrictions. I think this dynamic will exacerbate the weaknesses for these California teams early in the season — and that means that the UCLA and San Diego State offensive attacks are likely to be a step or two behind. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (385) and the San Diego State Aztecs (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-20 |
Lakers v. Heat UNDER 214.5 |
|
106-93 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (961) and the Miami Heat (962) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-35) staved off elimination on Friday with their 111-108 upset win over the Lakers as a 5.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (67-24) blew their first opportunity to hoist the championship trophy but they still own a 3-2 mark in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers lost Game Five despite making 46.3% of their shots which was their best shooting effort from the floor in the last three games. Los Angeles has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after an upset loss. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Anthony Davis may not be 100% with the heel injury he suffered late on Game Four. If he cannot contribute the same level of offense as he has in this series, the Lakers’ reliable scoring weapons shrink. This will likely be the LeBron James Show tonight — and that means a slower pace as he looks to create his shot from isolation plays. The Lakers had been averaging 101.2 possessions per game with James on the court but that mark has dropped to just 94.8 possessions per game mark with James on the court in this series. Los Angeles has also outrebounded the Heat by seven boards in each of the last three games — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. Miami has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after being outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. The Heat nailed 14 of their 33 shots (42.4%) from behind the arc on Friday but regression back to their 36.2% mark from 3-point land in this series is likely for tonight. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 20* NBA LA Lakers-Miami ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (961) and the Miami Heat (962). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-20 |
Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
111-108 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (67-23) took a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Tuesday with their 102-96 victory over the Heat. Miami (57-35) looks to keep their championship dreams alive in this must-win game for them. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat were able to get Bam Adebayo back on the court in Game Four where he played over 33 minutes. With the two days of rest since that game, Adebayo should be able to at least match that amount of time on the court tonight. As I argued for Game Two last Friday (our NBA Total of the Year), playing without Adebayo would have a significant impact on a higher-scoring game. The highest two scoring games in this series were Games Two and Three which Adebayo did not play — 238 and 219 combined points were scored in those two games. Adebayo’s return to the court leads to lower scoring games. For starters, he is Miami’s best interior defender. Anthony Davis can almost score at will if he is being defended by Meyers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk. But Leonard and Olynyk are both capable outside shooters that Adebayo. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team play at a faster pace when Adebayo is not on the court. In all, Adebayo’s presence on the court tonight means better defense for the Heat along with a slower pace and less 3-point shooting. Miami has been outrebounded by seven boards in each of the four games in this series. The Heat have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Miami has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least two days of rest. And in their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series, the Heat have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Lakers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Head coach Frank Vogel made a nice coaching adjustment on Tuesday by giving Anthony Davis the defensive assignment against Jimmy Butler. Not only does this make Butler’s job scoring at the rim more of a challenge but Davis was playing off Butler at the top of the key while seemingly daring him to take 3-pointers. Yet Butler only laughed three shots from downtown — missing all three attempts. Miami ended that game with a 42.7% field goal percentage which was tied for the lowest shooting mark in their last fourteen games. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponent by at least 5 boards in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-20 |
Lakers v. Heat OVER 218.5 |
|
102-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and Miami Heat (708) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-34) looks to build off a 115-104 upset win over the Lakers on Sunday as a 9-point underdog. Los Angeles (66-23) still holds a 2-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 28 of their last 41 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Miami has also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after pulling off an upset win. The Heat made 51.2% of their shots on Sunday after nailing 50.7% of their shots in Game Two of this series — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. And while the last two games have this series have seen 219 and 238 combined points, Miami has played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Despite shooting over 50% again, there is room for the Heat to replicate that feat again since Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro combined to make only 5 of their 17 shots from behind the arc despite combining to shoot 38.9% from 3-point land in the regular season. The Heat were without the injured Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic on Sunday which made Butler’s effort even more spectacular. Dragic will probably not play in this series but Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game with his neck injury. He wanted to play on Sunday but was not cleared by the Miami medical staff. Even if he does take the court, it remains questionable how effective he can be. I argued on Friday for the Over in Game Two (our NBA Total of the Year) that the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic dramatically changed the tenor of this series: Miami was left without their best interior defender; their replacements were offensive players who were liabilities on defense; the Heat would resort to small-ball with a quicker pace and more 3-point shooting. Even if Adebayo plays tonight, I expect these factors to continue. Miami has also played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Lakers shot just 43% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. LA should also score more points in transition in this game. After netting +6.1 points per 100 possession clip in transition in Game One and +1.1 points per 100 possession mark in transition in Game Two, LA had -1.4 points per 100 possession rating in Game Three. They had adequate transition scoring chances that represented 12.1% of their possessions on Sunday, but they only scored at 90.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Lakers entered this series averaging 23.3 points per game via transitions which was tops in the NBA playoffs with 18.5% of their possessions coming from transition.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when leading in playoff series. They had scored at least 114 points in their previous four games before only scoring 104 points on Sunday. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and Miami Heat (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-20 |
Lakers v. Heat OVER 218.5 |
|
104-115 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (705) and the Miami Heat (706) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (66-22) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 124-114 win over the Heat as a 10.5-point favorite. Miami (56-34) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers raced out to a 68-54 halftime lead after owning a 65-48 halftime lead in Game One of this series. Los Angeles has then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after leading by at least 10 points in their last two games. The Lakers have also played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. I argued on Friday for the Over in Game Two (our NBA Total of the Year) that the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic dramatically changed the tenor of this series: Miami was left without their best interior defender; their replacements were offensive players who were liabilities on defense; the Heat would resort to small-ball with a quicker pace and more 3-point shooting. These assessments were accurate the total soaring Over the 217 Total on Friday. While I do not expect the Heat to necessarily shoot 50% from the field while making 40% of their 3-pointers (and it is why I am passing on the side play), this should still be a high-scoring game. Miami has played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. They also have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Heat have also played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: I do not expect much from Adebayo if he is able to play significant minutes tonight. I suspect Anthony Davis will still have his way inside while Spoelstra will still lean on small-ball and a bunch of 3s with the hope his team can nail 40% of them again as they did on Friday. Miami has lost all four games they have played against the Lakers this season — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing with at least triple revenge. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Miami ABC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (705) and the Miami Heat (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-20 |
Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 |
Top |
114-124 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (65-22) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday with their 116-98 victory over the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite. Miami (56-33) has lost two of their last three games — and they suffered two critical injuries in that game to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic that have an immediate impact on this series moving forward. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami hit only 42.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. They also made just 11 of their 36 shots from downtown for a low 31% mark. The team was simply overwhelmed in the 2nd quarter after racing out to an early 13-point lead. Adebayo only played 21 minutes while Dragic managed just 14:50 minutes before leaving the game to their injuries. The Lakers nailed 60% of their 3-pointers in the first half en route to 65 points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Moving forward, the injuries to Adebayo and Dragic forces head coach Erik Spoelstra to make some significant changes. He is going to play more small-ball — which means a faster tempo, more 3-pointers but a reliance on players with defensive liabilities. Without Adebayo and Dragic on the court, Miami has seen the average possessions per game rise from a 97.4 average to 101 possessions per game. The Heat have their worst Defensive Rating when Dragic is not on the court. His absence means more minutes for Tyler Herro who can be lights out on offense but is a work in progress on the defensive end of the court. Adebayo claims he is going to try to play tonight. We’ll see. Spoelstra will have to give more minutes to Kelly Olynyk in his absence which is another player with defensive limitations when playing against a player like Anthony Davis. Spoelstra will likely embrace more small-ball lineups and even more 3-point shooting in the hopes that his team can replicate the 38% shooting from behind the arc they enjoyed during the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Heat have now allowed at least 113 points in their last three games — and they have played 9 straight games on the road Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. They also have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Los Angeles coasted to victory despite making only 45.2% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last four games. The Lakers raced out to a 65-48 halftime lead while nailing 60% of their 3-pointers in the first 24 minutes of that game. That was the sixth time that LA has scored at least 60 points in the first half of their sixteen playoff games. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after enjoying a 15-point lead at halftime. They also had a 10-point lead at halftime in their final game with Denver — and the Lakers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after generating double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. And in their last 20 games after a victory by at least 15 points, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. The Lakers have an Offensive Rating of 115.7 which is 2nd best of all playoff teams. Davis scored 34 points on Wednesday and should have his way inside with Adebayo out (or less than 100%). Los Angeles outrebounded the Heat by a 54 to 36 margin in Game One — and Miami has played 8 straight road games Over the Total after a game where they were outrebounded by at least 15 boards.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat have to shoot their way to victory tonight — and if they miss, that triggers the Lakers’ transition offense from which they entered this series averaging 23.3 PPG in transition with it representing 18.5% of their offense. Miami has lost all three meetings with LA this season — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-20 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215 |
Top |
107-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-22) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 114-108 victory over the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite. Denver (55-36) once again finds themselves on the brink of elimination down 3-1 in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The referees responded from the criticism from LeBron James about not getting enough whistles as the Lakers got to the charity stripe 35 times from which they converted on 28 of those attempts. Look for the fewer fouls to be called in tonight’s game. The Lakers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Denver made 50.6% of their shots in Game Four which was the third straight game where the Lakers allowed them to make at least 47.3% of their shots from the field. Los Angeles has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games — but that is a strong indicator that this game will finish below the number. LA has played 48 of their last 76 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. And in their last 47 games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games, they have then played 30 of these games Under the Total. And while these two teams have seen 220 and 222 combined points scored in the last two games, the Lakers have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets are certainly familiar with this situation of being on the brink of elimination. They must crave danger. The urgency of avoiding the abyss does motivate better efforts on the defensive end of the court for Denver. In Game Six and Seven of their series with Utah, the Nuggets held the Jazz to just 45.3% and 38.0% shooting which resulted in only 107 and 78 points in the final two games of that series. Then in Game Five, Six, and Seven in their series with the Clippers, Denver clamped down to hold Kawhi Leonard and company to 42%, 41%, and 37.8% shooting which translated into 105, 98, and 89 points. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends are complemented by an empirical situational angle that has been 61% effective over the last five seasons. The Lakers have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — and in games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range, when one team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, these games have then finished Under the Total in 116 of these last 189 situations where these conditions applied. While Davis is one of the best defenders in the league, if he is not 100% (or does not play), that helps our Under play since he is so important to the Lakers offense — he is averaging 29 PPG in the postseason. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-20 |
Celtics v. Heat OVER 211.5 |
|
109-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (713) and the Miami Heat (714) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-29) won Game Three of this series on Saturday with their 117-106 win over the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami (54-31) still holds a 2-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat had their worst shooting game in their last twelve contests by making only 38.8% of their shots on Monday. After making 44% of their 3-pointers in Game One of this series and then 33% of their shots from downtown in Game Two, Miami made just 27% of their 44 shots from behind the arc. The Heat should shoot better tonight — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days off — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. The Heat have still won ten of their last twelve games — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 38 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, the game finished Over the Total 25 times. Boston tied their lowest defensive field goal percentage in their last nine games by holding the Heat to just 38.8% shooting. The Celtics have still allowed Miami to score at least 106 points in all three games in this series — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, Boston has played 43 of their last 66 games on the road Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Celtics also now have Gordon Hayward back on the court after he logged-in over 30 minutes on Saturday. Hayward makes the Boston offensive attack better because his outside shooting serves as a zone-buster. In the twenty possessions that the Celtics played against a Heat zone defense with Hayward on the court, they scored 20 points at a 0.90 Points-Per-Possession clip — as compared to the 19 points they scored in Game Two in thirty-two possessions with Hayward where they scored at just a 0.59 PPP clip. Boston also scored in six of their final seven possessions against the Miami zone defense with Hayward on the court which suggests they began to figure out how to expose that defense.
FINAL TAKE: The pace is picking up in this series. After Game One and Game Two saw 90 and 93 possessions, Game Three had 99 possessions. Boston is scoring at a 1.10 Points-Per-Possession rate while Miami is scoring at a 1.09 PPP clip in this series. With the extra days of rest and the offensive impact the addition of Hayward has in this series, expect a higher scoring game. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (713) and the Miami Heat (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-20 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-21) has now won six games in a row in dramatic fashion with Anthony Davis nailing a buzzer-beating 3-pointers to seal a 105-103 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (54-35) is now down 2-0 to the Lakers in this series. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: An encouraging aspect that the Nuggets can take from Game Two of this series was their improved play on defense in the final 24 minutes of that game. Denver limited the Lakers to just 45 points in the second half while limiting them to scoring at just a 0.95 Points-Per-Possession rate. Los Angeles missed 15 of their 21 shots from behind that arc in the second half. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Denver’s last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. And while that game finished just below the closing total of 209, the Nuggets have played a decisive 55 of their last 93 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Denver has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by no more than 3 points. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a victory where they did cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in each of their six victories in a row — but they have played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, LA has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. This Lakers’ team remains relatively rested after taking care of Houston in five games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when not playing more than three games in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have lost all four meetings between these two teams in 2020 — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-20 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 208 |
|
117-106 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (703) and the Miami Heat (704) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (54-30) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Thursday with their 106-101 upset victory over the Celtics as a 2.5-point underdog. Boston (56-29) has now lost five of their last seven games. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami pulled off their second straight upset victory in this series — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two straight games as an underdog. And while the Heat have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. Miami won this game despite allowing the Celtics to make 50% of their shots from the field. That was the worst defensive effort for the Heat in their last fifteen games. Miami has frustrated Boston with their use of a 2-3 zone defense. The Celtics average 0.98 Points-Per-Possession in their half-court offense — but they are scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession clip in this series against the Miami 2-3 zone. Boston has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While they struggle to adjust to this 2-3 zone, the Celtics will be hard-pressed to replicate their 50% shooting effort on Thursday as it was the best offensive performance in their last eleven games.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss. And while the Celtics have lost to Miami three straight times when including a loss in the bubble in August before the playoffs started, Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (703) and the Miami Heat (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
104-89 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (53-33) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday as they defeated the Clippers by a 111-98 score as a 9-point underdog to force this Game Seven. Los Angeles (56-20) has blown a lead of at least 15 points in the last two contests in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Apparently, it is the sense of imminent failure that motivates this Nuggets team to play harder on defense. Five of Denver’s seven victories this postseason have come in elimination games. They held the Clippers to just 41% shooting on Sunday in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games — this performance was highlighted by them getting a defensive stop in eleven straight possessions in the second half. The Nuggets also nailed 54.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in the last seven contests. Denver has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games are a double-digit win. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games are a point spread victory. And in their last 15 playoff games with the series tied, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles played their worst defensive game in their last fourteen contests after allowing Denver can 54.1% of their shots. Head coach Doc Rivers will likely shorten his bench tonight which means less time for Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams who are offensive spark plugs off the bench but who have liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have only covered the point spread once in the last five games in this series — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home after not covering the point spread in their last two games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 23 of their last 33 games away from home Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss when favored by at least 7 points. 25* NBA Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-20 |
Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 221 |
|
96-85 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (711) and the Denver Nuggets (712) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (55-26) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Monday with their 113-107 win over the Nuggets as an 8.5-point favorite. Denver (51-32) has lost two of their last three games. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game finished right at the 220.5 closing total number despite the Clippers making 54.7% of their shots. Los Angeles also allowed the Nuggets to make 46.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last five games. Head coach Doc Rivers was imploring his team to play harder on defense with him claiming that the first team to play defense would win that game (paraphrasing from memory). The Clippers finally did raise their level of play and intensity on the defensive end of the court in the 4th quarter to take the lead and pull away from the Nuggets — they held them to just 19 points in the final twelve minutes. I do expect that late defensive effort to carry over into this game. LA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after a narrow victory by 6 points or less. Los Angeles has also played 33 of their last 51 games away from home Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. Rivers is getting a nice defensive effort from big man Ivica Zubac whose responsibility is to slow down the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic — but he was limited to only 21 minutes on Monday given foul trouble. The depth of this team should help the Clippers’ defensive effort tonight as well as they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. Denver has played a decisive 52 of their last 89 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. And after not taking more than 85 shots during a four-game stretch, the Nuggets have launched 91 and 94 shots in their last two games — and they have then played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams are doing an admirable job slowing down the key offensive player for the other team. Denver is throwing swarms of defenders at Kawhi Leonard who had only 23 points on Monday. The Nuggets’ Jamal Murray may be tiring as he has not scored more than 17 points in three of his last four games — he is shooting just 20 of 53 (37.7%) in this series while making only 7 of his 23 shots (30.4%) from behind the arc. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (711) and the Denver Nuggets (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-20 |
Bucks v. Heat UNDER 219.5 |
|
118-115 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (745) and the Miami Heat (746) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Miami (51-29) seized a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 115-100 upset victory over the Bucks as a 5-point underdog. Milwaukee (60-21) has been upset in all three games in this series and now find themselves on the brink of elimination. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. Miami has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. The Heat opened as the favorite for the first time in this series — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored who also having played 7 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Furthermore, Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when up 3-0 in a playoff series under head coach Eric Spoelstra. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss by at least 15 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a game-time decision in this game after he wrenched in his ankle in Game Three. Even if he plays, he will not be at full strength for this game.
FINAL TAKE: An adjustment that head coach Mike Budenholzer will likely make in this game is to not give as many minutes to center Brook Lopez who has been consistently exposed on defense against the Heat’s cadre of 3-point shooting big men. Getting Lopez off the court will help the Bucks’ defense but hinder their offense since he plays an important role in their 3-point shooting attack. These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (745) and the Miami Heat (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-20 |
Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 217 |
Top |
102-104 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (47-31) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Monday with their 104-100 upset win over the Rockets as a 4.5-point underdog. Houston (47-31) ha lost three of their last four games in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets blew their opportunity to close out this series on Monday despite making 45.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. Houston has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The pressure of the playoffs tends to play a role in making all the 3s this team launches not fall quite as much. Every statistical moment is not the same — pressure plays a role in these games despite the protestations from the analytics community. It was their last Game Seven against Golden State back in the spring of 2018 where the Rockets missed twenty-seven straight 3-point shots. Houston has played 17 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series including six straight Unders. They also have played 18 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close out the series. Additionally, the Rockets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City has seen the Under go a decisive 48-21-1 in their last 70 games as an underdog. Additionally, the Thunder have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 28 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Finding consistent scoring options for head coach Billy Donovan has been an issue outside of Chris Paul who scored 15 of his 28 points on Monday in the 4th quarter. Donovan is still starting Lu Dort alongside Steven Adams despite their liabilities on offense. When they are on the floor in this series the Thunder are scoring at just a 66.7 points per 100 possession rate — the Rockets are comfortable playing off both of them to pack the paint. But they are giving Donovan defense as Houston is scoring at just an 89.3 points per 100 possession rate when those two are on the court. I don’t see Donovan moving away from starting this combo tonight.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home when looking to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-20 |
Heat v. Bucks OVER 221.5 |
|
116-114 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (730) and the Miami Heat (729) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (49-29) won the opening game of this series on Monday with their 115-104 upset victory over the Bucks as a 5-point underdog. Milwaukee (60-19) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while this game came on the heels of their 99-87 victory over Indiana back on August 24th to complete their four-game sweep in that series, Miami has played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Heat have rested legs right now with the seven-day break between ending that series with the Pacers and beginning this series — and that should help push the score up in this contest. Miami has played 24 of their last 35 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bucks have played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 46 of their last 75 games after allowing at least 115 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 second games to a new playoff series Over the Total. Game One was cruising to finish way Over the Total before only 41 combined points were scored in the 4th quarter. I suspect that was an aberration. Expect all four of the quarters tonight to consist of brisk scoring. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (730) and the Miami Heat (729). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-20 |
Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 226.5 |
|
100-104 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (717) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (718) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (47-30) has the opportunity to close out this series tonight after their 114-80 victory over the Thunder as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma City (46-31) trails by a 3-2 margin in this series and will be looking to force a climactic seventh game for this series on Wednesday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 85 points in their last game. Houston has also played 32 of their last 50 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Getting Russell Westbrook back on the court gave the Rockets another outstanding ball defender. They did a very good job of defending the Thunder’s attempt to create scoring opportunities via isolation — and they have forced them into taking too many ill-advised 3s. But Westbrook looked rusty as he missed ten of his thirteen shots from the field. Houston has still scored 114 points in each of their last two games — but they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games away from home Under the Total when playing their second game in five days. Oklahoma City was a mess on offense as they made just 7 of their 46 shots from behind the arc en route to only making 31.5% of their shots overall. Head coach Billy Donovan has a dilemma on his hands. He needs to give Luguentz Dort playing time because he is his best defender against James Harden. But Dort is a liability on offense — he was just three of sixteen from the field on Saturday while missing all nine of his 3-pointers. Donovan is also playing Steven Adams to offer a rim protector (something he will likely feel compelled to do with Westbrook now healthy) — but when Adams is on the court with Dort, the Rockets are comfortable playing off both players and cram the paint. Oklahoma City has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. The Under is also a decisive 47-21-1 in the Thunder’s last 69 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 30 or more points. 10* NBA Houston-Oklahoma City TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (717) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors OVER 217 |
|
112-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (709) and the Toronto Raptors (710) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (52-24) has won four straight games after their 110-106 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite as they completed their opening-round sweep of the 76ers. Toronto has won eight straight games after they swept Brooklyn in their opening-round series after defeating them last Sunday by a 150-122 score as a 14-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors 28-point victory over the Nets came on the heels of their 117-92 win over Brooklyn in Game Three of that series — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning two straight games by at least double-digits. Toronto has played a decisive 37 of their last 59 games Over the Total after a game where at least 235 points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. The Raptors made 50.4% of their shots in Game Three before improving on that effort by nailing 55.4% of their shots in Game Four — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after shooting 50% from the field in two straight games. The Raptors are playing at a fast pace as they attempted 91 shots in Game Three before taking 101 shots in Game Four — and they have then played 15 of their last 20 games away from home Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. For the season, the Raptors average 88 shot attempts per game — and Boston has played 28 of their last 47 games Over the Total against teams who average at least 88 shots per game. The long rest should ensure the Celtics have fresh legs that usually help their offensive attack. Boston has played 41 of their last 63 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing not more than their third game in ten days. Additionally, the Celtics have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 70%.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are dealing with significant injuries. Boston will be without Gordon Hayward who is on the shelf with an ankle injury. Toronto may be without Kyle Lowry who is questionable with an ankle injury of his own. The Raptors average 3.5 more possessions per game when Lowry is not on the court — so his potential absence should lead Toronto to play quicker. These two teams played in the bubble on August 7th where the Celtic won by a 122-100 score as a 2-point underdog. Toronto has played 32 of their last 51 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed their opponent to score at least 110 points including eight of these last thirteen situations. 10* NBA Boston-Toronto ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (709) and the Toronto Raptors (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-20 |
Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 219 |
|
107-117 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (714) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (713) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (47-29) has won three straight games in this series after winning Game Four of this series on Sunday with their 129-127 loss as a 3.5-point favorite. Denver (47-30) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jazz have scored at least 124 points in all four games of this series — and they have nailed at least 51.2% of their shots in their last three victories after they shot 57.5% from the field on Sunday which included them making 48% of their 3-pointers. Utah has an effective field goal percentage of 61% in the playoffs which is the best mark of all sixteen teams. The Over is 19-9-1 in the Jazz’s last 29 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Utah has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite. Denver has been overmatched on the defensive end of the court while missing the injured Gary Harris and Will Barton who are two of their better perimeter defenders. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 35-14-2 in Denver’s last 51 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by just 3 points or less. 10* NBA Utah-Denver TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-20 |
Pacers v. Heat UNDER 218 |
|
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Monday, will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Miami Heat (706) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (47-29) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 124-115 victory over the Pacers as a 5-point favorite. Indiana (45-31) faces elimination from the playoffs. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Brooklyn Nets decided to not play defense yesterday when they were down 3-0 in their series with Toronto — and that is something I have considered for this game. These bubble games on neutral courts without fans where playoff elimination does have the benefit of offering the losing players the liberation of returning to their families. Yet I expect the Pacers to avoid the fate of the Nets’ players yesterday — they consistently play hard for head coach Nate McMillan. Besides, the longer they can keep this series alive, the better the chances they can get Domantas Sabonis who has returned to the bubble and is quarantining after dealing with plantar fasciitis. His return could be a game-changer for Indiana in this series. One game at a time. Indiana lost on Saturday despite making 48.8% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Pacers started slowly in Game Three by falling behind by a 74-56 margin — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after falling behind by at least 15 points at halftime in their last game. Indiana has also played 12 of their last 19 games on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days. Additionally, the Pacers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog in the playoffs. Indiana has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And in their last 77 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, the Pacers have played 46 of these games Under the Total. Miami made 45.3% of their shots on Saturday which was their best shooting mark in this series. The Heat have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the playoffs with a 3-0 lead under head coach Erik Spoelstra. They also have played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana has played 42 of their last 68 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. The first two games of this series went Under the Total before Game Three’s Over. Expect another lower scoring game tonight. 10* NBA Indiana-Miami TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Miami Heat (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-20 |
Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 224 |
|
114-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (703) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (704) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (45-30) won their first game in this series on Saturday with their 119-107 victory in overtime over the Rockets as a 2.5-point underdog. Houston (46-29) still holds a 2-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder made only 44.6% of their shots on Saturday yet that was still the best shooting effort in their last six games. Oklahoma City has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Head coach Billy Donovan looks to have decided to trade offense for defense in this series by giving significant minutes to big man Steven Adams and Luguentz Dort who has the defensive assignment of covering James Harden. Dort did a nice job on Harden in Game Three by limiting him to just 12 of 27 shooting along with him making only 3 of his 13 shots from behind the arc. But Adams and Dort are not shooters nor big offensive threats which makes it easier on the switching Rockets’ defense. The Under is 41-20-1 in Oklahoma City’s last 62 games as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Thunder have also played 21 of their last 30 games with the Total set in the 220s. Houston has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Houston has seen their shooting percentage decline in each game in this series so the grind of playing every other day may be getting to their 3-point shooting fest. This is a team that has played 8 straight games Under the Total on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days. The Rockets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Houston-Oklahoma City TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (703) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Raptors v. Nets UNDER 221.5 |
|
150-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (745) and the Brooklyn Nets (746). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (35-39) finds themselves on the brink of elimination today after losing Game Three of this series on Friday by a 117-92 score as an 11-point underdog. Toronto (55-19) has won seven straight games. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets really miss their best 3-point shooter in Joe Harris who left the team to deal with a family emergency. Without Harris’ outside shooting threat, the Raptors pay more attention to Jarrett Allen close to the basket. Brooklyn maned only 22 points in the paint on Friday. They also made only 16 of their 51 shots (31.4%) from behind the arc while settling for a 33.3% shooting percentage overall. Interim head coach Jacques Vaughn was already dealing with a depleted roster with seven of the players he had in March not making the trip to Orlando. This Nets team lacks scoring options. Brooklyn has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a loss to an Atlantic Division rival. The Nets have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Brooklyn has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing two straight games against Atlantic Division rivals. And in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog, the Nets have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Toronto may be due for a scoring letdown after making 50.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their eleven games in the bubble. The Raptors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points — and they have played 27 of their last 35 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row against a divisional rival.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Toronto-Brooklyn TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (745) and the Brooklyn Nets (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-20 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 231 |
|
110-118 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (757) and the Los Angeles Clippers (758) in the opening game of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (43-32) enters the playoffs on a two-game losing streak after losing to Phoenix on Thursday by a 128-102 score as an 8-point underdog. Los Angeles (49-23) has won their last two games as well as four of their last five contests with their 107-102 win over Oklahoma City on Friday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks are challenged on the defensive end of the court — but head coach Rick Carlisle will demand more from his team after allowing the Suns to make 55.1% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort of their eight games inside the bubble. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And the Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Furthermore, Dallas allowed all eight of their opponents inside the bubble to score at least 110 points — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in four straight contests. Los Angeles is an outstanding defensive team when fully engaged with all their best players. They will probably not have the services of Patrick Beverley for this game as he recovers from his calf injury but they will have Montrezl Harrell returning to the court after clearing the quarantine protocols. But with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, head coach Doc Rivers has two incredible safety valve options who can defend Luka Doncic. The Clippers have played 8 of their last 10 games in the playoffs Under the Total when favored — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games away from home after a narrow win by 6 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last met on August 6th in the bubble when the Clippers easily defeated the Mavericks by a 126-111 score. Dallas has then played 54 of their last 88 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss under Carlisle. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (757) and the Los Angeles Clippers (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 221.5 |
|
122-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (711) and the Toronto Raptors (712). THE SITUATION: Boston (45-230 enters this game coming off a 149-115 win over Brooklyn as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (49-18) has won seven straight games going back to before the stoppage of play after their 107-99 win over Orlando on Wednesday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points — and they have also played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a blowout victory by at least 30 points. Boston shot 56.8% from the field against the Nets in what was the best shooting effort in their four games inside the bubble. The Celtics lead all teams since the restart with a 121.9 points per 100 possession scoring average — but they were able to prop up their stats in two of their games against weak defensive teams in Portland and the Nets on Wednesday. They made only 40.7% of their shots in their opening game loss to Milwaukee. Moving forward, Boston has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Raptors nailed 48.7% of their shots against the Magic which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But Toronto is just 20th of the twenty-two teams in the bubble by averaging 105.2 points per 100 possessions. The Raptors are dominating teams because of their commitment to defense. They are 2nd of the teams inside the bubble by holding their opponents to just 96.1 points per 100 possessions — and they have held two of their four opponents to below 100 points. Toronto has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 113-97 upset loss at home to Toronto back on December 28th. The Celtics have played 19 of their last 27 games on the road Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 10* NBA Boston-Toronto TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (711) and the Toronto Raptors (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
66-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). THE SITUATION: FAU (16-15) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 94-82 loss at Marshall as a 5.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Old Dominion (13-18) has lost three of their last five games with their 72-63 loss at UAB as a 2-point favorite on last Saturday. The Conference USA tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls allowed the Thundering Herd to nail 53.4% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of their season (and worst over their last fourteen games). FAU has then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Owls have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss against a conference rival. Now FAU stays on the road where they are making just 40.1% of their shots which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Owls have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. And in their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3 point range, FAU has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Old Dominion allowed the Blazers to make 51.1% of their shots which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Monarchs did hold UAB to just four offensive rebounds in that contest — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. Old Dominion is 7th in the nation by limiting its opponents to rebounding just 21.7% of their missed shots. The Monarchs stay on the road where they are making only 39.6% of their shots which results in just 60.2 PPG. Old Dominion is 339th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.1% when playing away from home. The Monarchs have played 39 of their last 51 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 21 of their last 26 games when playing on a neutral court as the favorite. Old Dominion has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total in tournament action.
FINAL TAKE: The Monarchs are a strong defensive team that ranked 3rd in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 57th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. FAU has an effective field goal percentage of 46% when playing away from home which is just 279th in the country. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Murray State v. Belmont UNDER 141 |
Top |
75-76 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). THE SITUATION: Murray State (23-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 73-61 win over Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite yesterday. Belmont (25-7) joined them yesterday as they won their eleventh straight game with their 60-50 win over Eastern Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral court in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Murray State is playing excellent defense right now after holding the Governors to just 39.3% shooting. The Racers have held their last five opponents to just 39.6% shooting from the field which has resulted in only 61.0 PPG. Moving forward, Murray State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Racers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Belmont has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference opponent. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bruins made only 33.8% of their shots in that game — but they held Eastern Kentucky to just 29.9% shooting to win the game handily. Belmont has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 60 points. The Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a defensive struggle between the top two defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Belmont has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-07-20 |
Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
59-56 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 89-82 win over Wyoming as a 15-point favorite yesterday. San Diego State (30-1) has won their last four games after suffering their first loss of the season with their 81-68 win over Boise State yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies outlasted the Cowboys by shooting 56.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Utah State has then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread win. The Aggies have also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while yesterday’s game flew Over the 136 point Total, Utah State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. San Diego State has played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 80 points. The Aztecs rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. In their fifteen games away from home this year, San Diego State has held these opponents to just 39.9% shooting and only 60.9 PPG. The Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total that were played on a neutral court. San Diego State has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in tournament action. And while Utah State makes 46.1% of their shots this season, the Aztecs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 455 from the field. The Aggies are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but San Diego State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State hopes to avenge an 80-68 loss to San Diego State back on February 1st — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Aggies have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. Expect a lower scoring game between the top two defensive teams (in terms of Adjusted Efficiency) in the conference). 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-20 |
VCU v. Davidson UNDER 137 |
Top |
65-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (861) and the Davidson Wildcats (862). THE SITUATION: VCU (18-12) has lost six of their last seven games with their 80-77 loss at home to Duquesne on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Davidson (15-14) has lost their last two contests after their 80-63 loss at Richmond on Wednesday as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: VCU has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored
|
03-05-20 |
UMKC v. Utah Valley OVER 136 |
Top |
61-51 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). THE SITUATION: UMKC (15-14) has won three games in a row with their 80-58 win over Chicago State last Saturday as a 20-point favorite. Utah Valley State (11-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in a 73-66 loss at Cal-Baptist where they were 6-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Kangaroos have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. UMKC is hot with its shooting right now as they are making 48.5% of their shots over their last five contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. The Kangaroos have also played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. Utah Valley State made only 43.9% of their shots last week in their loss to Cal-Baptist — that was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Wolverines have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. And while Utah Valley State has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Over their last five games, they are still making 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 76.8 PPG. They have also allowed 75.0 PPG over those last five games. They return home where they are scoring 74.9 PPG while allowing their opponents to average 70.4 PPG. Hosting this Kangaroos team will help their shooting as UMKC is 285th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% when they are playing on the road. Utah Valley State has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolverines have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Utah Valley State makes only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Kangaroos have played 14 of their last 17 games Ove the Total against opponents who do not shoot better than 31% from behind the 3-point line. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-20 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Old Dominion OVER 143 |
Top |
59-84 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). THE SITUATION: UTSA (13-16) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 66-59 victory over UAB as a 3-point favorite. Old Dominion (12-17) also ended their two-game losing streak when they defeated Florida Atlantic on Sunday by an 85-80 score as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory at home against a conference rival. The Roadrunners have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, UTSA has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Toal after holding their last opponent to no more than 60 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Roadrunners held the Blazers to just 36.1% shooting — but now they go back on the road where they allow their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in them scoring 82.9 PPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they rank 290th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency along with just 11th in conference play. UTSA has played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Roadrunners have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UTSA is a solid offensive team that scores 77.8 PPG while averaging 65 shots per game along with 10 made 3-pointers per contest. Old Dominion has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG. The Monarchs have all played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game. Old Dominion committed only eight personal fouls in their win over the Owls on Sunday with FAU getting whistled for 19 personal fouls — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after being called for at least 10 personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Monarchs have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against Conference USA foes. Now this team stays at home where they are 9-4 this season. Old Dominion has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% on the road. The Monarchs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion will be looking to avenge an 85-81 loss at home to UTSA back on February 6th — and the Monarchs have played 18 of their last 21 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-20 |
Xavier v. Providence UNDER 133 |
|
74-80 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (741) and the Providence Friars (742). THE SITUATION: Xavier (19-10) has won two straight games as well as six of their last eight contests with their 66-63 upset win at Georgetown as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Providence (17-12) has won their last four games with their 58-54 win at Villanova as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-0-1 in the Musketeers last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big East rival. Xavier has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they did not cover the point spread. The Musketeers stay on the road where they are limiting their opponents to just 39.4% shooting from the field which results in them giving up only 68.1 PPG by their home hosts. Xavier also makes 43.7% of their shots away from home which is producing just 69.2 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Musketeers’ last 6 games on the road — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Xavier has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Providence has paled 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset against a conference foe as an underdog getting at least 6 points — and this includes them playing five straight Unders in that situation. The Friars have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this team returns home where they are 11-3 while holding their guests to just 39.1% shooting which results in these visitors scoring only 62.0 PPG. Providence ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Friars have played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Additionally, Providence has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Friars have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Providence will be looking to avenge a 64-58 loss at Xavier back on February 8th — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Xavier-Providence FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (741) and the Providence Friars (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-20 |
Idaho State v. Weber State OVER 145 |
Top |
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (6-20) has lost twelve straight games after their 89-76 loss at home to Portland State as a 4-point underdog last Thursday. Weber State (11-17) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-83 upset loss to Portland State as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits. Idaho State has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing at least two in a row — and they have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.7% of their shots which has produced 74.5 PPG. Idaho State has played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog. Weber State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes them playing four straight Overs after a victory. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Weber State stays at home where they are scoring 80.8 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. The Wildcats have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Over is 10-4-1 in Weber State’s last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% overall.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho State is just 318th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 347th in the country by allowing their opponents to make 56.0% of their shots inside the arc. The Bengals have a defensive field goal percentage of 48.3% — and the Wildcats have played 15 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Weber State is 3rd in the Big Sky Conference with a 53.3% of their shots inside the arc — they should score plenty of 2-pointers against this Idaho State team. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-29-20 |
Magic v. Spurs OVER 221 |
Top |
113-114 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). THE SITUATION: Orlando (23-32) has won three straight games with their 136-125 win over Minnesota last night as an 8-point favorite. San Antonio (24-33) has lost their last two games with their 109-103 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-0-1 in the Magic’s last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Orlando has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last five games. Head coach Steve Clifford has found a five-man combination that is finally jumpstarting what had been a stagnant offense. Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic entered the week averaging 110.1 points per 100 possessions in the 177 minutes they have played together. In the three games the Magic have played since, Orlando has averaged 127 PPG while making 49.4%, 49.0% and then 54.1% of their shots. But the problem for that grouping is their defense as they had allowed their opponents to score at an 111.8 points per 100 possession clip in those 177 minutes entering last Monday’s game. The Magic have allowed their last three opponents to average 119.3 PPG with a field goal percentage of 47.0%. All three games this week finished Over the Total — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. In their last five games, the Magic are scoring 120.6 PPG on 47.4% shooting — and they are surrendering 118.1 PPG on 47.1% shooting. Now they go back on the road where the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and the Over is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, while this is Orlando’s sixth game in the last two weeks, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in fourteen days. San Antonio held the Mavericks to just a 41.9% shooting percentage on Wednesday in that loss which was the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. The Over is 6-1-1 in the Spurs’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, San Antonio has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. And while San Antonio has lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two contests, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after suffering two straight losses — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. The Spurs defensive effort on Wednesday was a surprise because they have still allowed their last five opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 115.4 PPG. They stay at home for this game where they are scoring 113.3 PPG on 46.6% shooting while allowing their guests to score 112.4 PPG. San Antonio has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total as a favorite. The Spurs have also played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while San Antonio has launched at least 91 shots in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Orlando averages 89 shots per game this season (while taking at least 89 shots in seven straight contests) — and the Spurs have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 88 shots per game. The Spurs allow 114.5 PPG this season — and the Magic have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-29-20 |
Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 138 |
Top |
78-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (19-9) has won two straight games with their 78-70 win at home over Iowa as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Maryland (23-5) has won ten of their last eleven contests with their 74-73 win at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go a decisive 39-16-3 in their last 58 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big Ten rival. Michigan State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Now Sparty goes back on the road where they are just 8-6 this season while making only 43.6% of their shots which is translating into just 70.2 PPG. Michigan State sees their effective field goal percentage of 53.9% drop to a 50.3% mark when they are playing away from their home at the Breslin Center in East Lansing — that ranks 91st in the nation. But the Spartans’ outstanding defense does travel as they hold their home hosts to just 38.7% shooting which results in only 67.6 PPG. The Under is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games on the road — and the Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Under is 22-8-1 in Michigan State’s last 31 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, in the Spartans’ last 13 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Michigan State has seen 11 of these games finish Under the Total. Maryland allowed the Golden Gophers to make 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Terrapins have a bad habit of starting slowly which requires them to dig themselves out of big holes — they had to rally from a 16-point halftime deficit to defeat Minnesota. The Terrapins average only 33.4 points in the first half this season with that number dropping to 31.8 points in the first 20 minutes in conference games. They are making only 43% of their shots at home with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% which ranks 243rd in the nation. Overall, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the season ranks 35th in the nation — but that number plummets to 73rd in the country when they are playing on their home court in College Park. But Maryland holds their guests to just 36.7% shooting which results in a mere 59.8 PPG when they are playing at home. The Terrapins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Maryland has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These are two of the best defensive teams in the nation with the Spartans and Terrapins ranking 13th and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. Maryland holds their opponents to just 39.1% shooting — and Sparty has played 8 straight games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. And while Michigan State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.6 RPG, the Terrapins have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +7.0 RPG. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-20 |
Arizona v. USC UNDER 140 |
Top |
48-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). THE SITUATION: Arizona (19-8) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-72 upset loss at home to Oregon as a 5.5-point favorite. USC (19-9) has lost their last two games with their 75-69 loss at Utah as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Ducks to shoot 42.6% from the field which was the best shooting effort from an opponent in their last four games. Arizona should tighten up on defense — they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Wildcats rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to them being the 5th best team in the nation when playing on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arizona holds their home hosts to just 39.8% shooting which is resulting in them allowing only 67.7 PPG in their eleven road games. The Wildcats make only 28.2% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 313rd in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 44.3% on the road ranks 318th. Arizona has played 4 of there last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as the favorite. USC has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. USC allowed the Utes to make 48.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Trojans have the 40th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking has improved to 31st best in the country in that metric over their last ten games. USC has held their last five opponents to just 37.6% shooting from the field and now they return home after playing their last two games on the road. The Trojans have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. USC is 11-2 at home while holding their guests to scoring 64.5 PPG on 39.5% shooting from the field. But USC only makes 43.2% of their shots at home given their 47.5% shooting percentage inside the arc which is 285th in the nation. The Under is 39-18-1 in the Trojans’ last 58 home games — and they have played 7 storage home games Under the Total in February. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: USC will be looking to avenge an 85-80 loss at Arizona back on February 6th. The Trojans have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-20 |
Kings v. Thunder OVER 220.5 |
|
108-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (521) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (522). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (24-33) has won three straight games after their 112-94 win at Golden State as an 8.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Oklahoma City (36-22) has won four straight games as well as thirteen of their last sixteen contests with their 124-122 victory in Chicago on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kings have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a victory by at least 15 points. Head coach Luke Walton has this team playing at the faster pace they embraced last season. After ranking 24th in the NBA in pace, Sacramento has amped that up to the 7th fastest tempo in the league over their last five games. The Kings are scoring 115.8 PPG in these last five games while also allowing 115.0 PPG in those contests. Walton has indicated that he will have his team continue to play at the faster pace in preparation for next season. As it is, Sacramento has played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — and they have also played ten of their last thirteen games Over the Total when playing on the road with the Total in that range. They stay on the road tonight where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Oklahoma City has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up victory where they failed to cover the point spread. They are scoring 119.4 PPG over their last five games on 50.8% shooting from the field — but they have allowed those last five opponents to make 47% of their shots which has resulted in them allowing 111.6 PPG in those games. They return home where they are making 48.7% of their shots for a 113.7 PPG scoring average — but they are also allowing 109.2 PPG. The Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Over is also 14-4-1 in the Thunder’s last 19 games when they are the favorite — and this includes them playing 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total when favored in the 6.5 to 12 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City won the last meeting between these two teams by a 120-100 score back on January 29th. The Kings have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (521) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-20 |
LSU v. Florida OVER 146.5 |
|
66-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (841) and the Florida Gators (842). THE SITUATION: LSU (19-8) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 86-80 win at South Carolina as a pick ‘em. Florida (17-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 65-59 loss at Kentucky where they were 5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers held the Gamecocks to just 37.3% shooting from the field in what was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road after a victory. Additionally, the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread win. LSU has also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The Tigers stay on the road where they are 6-6 while averaging 82.3 PPG but allowing 80.6 PPG in their twelve contests. LSU has played 36 of their last 52 road games Over the Total which includes them playing eight of the last nine games on the road Over the Total. They have also played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and the Over is 45-19-1 in their last 65 road games when they are the underdog. The Tigers rank 2nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have scored at least 76 points in six straight contests. LSU has then played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points four straight games. Florida has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Gators have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They return home where they are 10-3 this season while averaging 75.4 PPG. Florida has paled 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Gators have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Florida holds their opponents to just 41.5% shooting from the field — but LSU has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or less. 10* CBB LSU-Florida ESPN2 O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (841) and the Florida Gators (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-20 |
Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 237.5 |
Top |
112-140 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (513) and the Houston Rockets (514). THE SITUATION: Memphis (28-29) has lost three straight games after their 124-97 loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers on Monday as an 11.5-point underdog. Houston (37-20) has won four straight games with their 123-112 win over New York on Monday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Under the Total. Memphis has also played 4 straight games Under the Total both after a straight-up loss and after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis has been playing short-handed with Jaren Jackson, Jr., Grayson Allen, and the recently acquired Justise Winslow all injured. They made only 41.6% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. Brandon Clarke also suffered a hip injury in that game which will keep him out for a couple of weeks which further hampers the Grizzlies offensive attack. Memphis has had the fourth-worst offense since the trade deadline with the reason seeming to be that when they dealt away Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill, they lost their two most active shooters from behind the arc. With Kyle Anderson sliding into the starting lineup despite not being a long-range shooting threat, opposing defenses are more comfortable to pack the paint to thwart Ja Morant’s driving lanes while also providing more help in double-teaming Jonas Valanciunas’ post-ups. And it is not helping matters that Dillon Brooks is in the midst of a big shooting slump: over his last nine games, he is shooting only 28.5% from the field while making just 17.1% of his shots from behind the arc. Now the Grizzlies play their fourth straight game on the road — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Memphis has also played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Grizzlies are scoring 111.7 PPG on the road this year which is not very much when considering tonight’s Total is in the high-230s. Memphis has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. And while the Grizzlies are averaging 47.2% shooting this season while holding their opponents to a 45.5% field goal percentage, they are only making 45.4% of their shots over their last five games — but they are limiting their opponents to a 43.7% field goal percentage. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Rockets have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where at least 230 combined points were scored. With the trade of Clint Capela, this team has completely embraced small-ball with them launching even more 3-pointers than ever. But Houston has also played a bit better on the defensive end of the court as they rank 12th in the league in Defensive Rating in their ten games since the All-Star break as compared to their 15th ranking in that metric overall this season. Over their last five games, the Rockets are holding their opponents to 109.2 PPG which is -5.0 PPG below their season average. Houston has played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook is listed as probable for tonight with his thumb injury but Eric Gordon is questionable with a knee injury — and his absence will impact the Rockets’ 3-point shooting. Houston will be looking to avenge a 121-110 upset loss in Memphis back on January 14th — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 27 of their last 39 encounters in Houston Under the Total. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (513) and the Houston Rockets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-20 |
Magic v. Hawks OVER 225.5 |
|
130-120 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (507) and the Atlanta Hawks (508). THE SITUATION: Orlando (25-32) has won three of their last four games with their 115-113 upset win at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Atlanta (17-42) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 129-112 loss at Philadelphia as an 8.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Magic have seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while Orlando has played four straight games Over the Total, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Head coach Steve Clifford has leaned more heavily on a lineup of Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic which has given the team a jump on offense. Orlando is scoring 113.4 PPG over their last five games. But that group presents some liabilities on the defensive end of the court as the Magic have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.1% of their shots which was resulted in 117.0 PPG. The Magic stay on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. And in their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game, Atlanta has played 6 of these games Over the Total. The Hawks made just 41.2% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. Now the Hawks return home hewer they are making 45.6% of their shots which is producing 112.3 PPG. But Atlanta is also allowing their opponents to shoot 46.4% from the field which is resulting in 115.1 PPG when they are playing on their home court. The Hawks have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at home. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played a decisive 32 of their last 45 games as an underdog overall. Over their last five games, the Hawks are scoring 116.6 PPG — but they allowed those five opponents to average 124.4 PPG on 48.1% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 32 of their last 53 games Over the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Orlando has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (507) and the Atlanta Hawks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-20 |
Bucks v. Raptors OVER 230 |
Top |
108-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (577) and the Toronto Raptors (578). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (49-8) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 137-134 win at Washington last night as a 12.5-point favorite. Toronto (42-15) has won their last two games as well as seventeen of their last eighteen contests with their 127-81 victory Indiana on Sunday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Milwaukee has also played 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And the Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where they allowed at least 130 points. Milwaukee made 57% of their shots against the Wizards which the third straight game that they made at least 50% of their shots since the All-Star break — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. The Bucks are shooting 49% from the field over their last five games which has generated 123.2 PPG. They stay on the road where they are making 47.9% of their shots which is resulting in 118.6 PPG. The Over is 19-7-1 in Milwaukee’s last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Raptors make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Bucks have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who make at least 36% of their shots from 3-point land. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win on their home court. The Raptors have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after a double-digit win, Toronto has played 5 of these games Over the Total. The Raptors held the Pacers to just 32.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort of their season. They also made 51.1% of their shots in that game after nailing 52.5% of their shots in their previous game against Phoenix — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight contests. They stay at home where they are 23-7 while making 47.5% of their shots which is producing 117.3 PPG. Toronto has won nine straight games at home while averaging 125.1 PPG in those contests on 51.9% shooting from the field and a 41.3% clip from behind the arc. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. Toronto has also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Bucks average 91 shots per game in their up-tempo offense, the Raptors have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 88 shots per game.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors will not be at full strength with Norman Powell and Marc Gasol both out with injuries — and that will hurt them more on the defensive end of the court rather than with their scoring. These two teams last played back on November 2nd when the Bucks won on their home court by a 115-105 score. Toronto has played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (577) and the Toronto Raptors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 134.5 |
Top |
58-83 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (14-13) has won three of their last four games after their 83-66 win over Oklahoma on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Kansas (24-3) has won twelve straight games with their 64-61 upset win at Baylor as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the total after a straight-up win. Oklahoma State has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against fellow Big 12 opponents. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They also have played 6 of tiger last 9 road games as a double-digit underdog. The Cowboys will be challenged by the outstanding defense that this Jayhawks team plays. Kansas is limiting their opponents to averaging just 60.7 PPG — but Oklahoma State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Cowboys rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season — but they have the 46th best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency mark over their last ten games. Kansas has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a narrow victory by 3 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Jayhawks victory over the Bears fell below the 131 point total, they have then played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kansas has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. Kansas returns home where they are 12-1 this season while making 49.6% of their shots which is resulting in 78.7 PPG. The Jayhawks have the 9th best offense in the nation based on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have the 2nd highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. Kansas makes 58.3% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home which is the 11th best mark in the country. Oklahoma State is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court as they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow their home hosts to shoot 50% of their shots inside the arc on the road which is the 138th worst mark in the nation. The Over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 18 of their last 28 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Kansas has also played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. And while the Cowboys hold their opponents to 40% shooting this season, the Jayhawks have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 27th by a 65-50 score. Oklahoma State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-20 |
Stanford v. Washington State UNDER 135 |
Top |
75-57 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). THE SITUATION: Stanford (17-9) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 72-64 upset win at Washington as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington State (14-13) has lost three straight games with their 66-57 upset loss to California as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal has seen the Under go 8-3-2 in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Stanford has also played 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. The Cardinal is one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they rank 6th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They hold their hosts to just 42% shooting from inside the arc which helps them post an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.5% — both those numbers are 3rd best in the nation for teams playing on the road. The Under is 9-4-2 in Stanford’s last 15 games on the road — and the Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Furthermore, the Under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinal’s last 4 road games as a favorite — and they have also seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cougars have played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. They made only 29.8% of their shots against the Golden Bears after shooting just 28.6% from the field in their previous game against USC. Over their last five games, Washington State is shooting just 35.8% which has resulted in only 63.8 PPG. They stay at home where they are making just 40.9% of their shots while ranking 302nd in the nation with a 46.4% field goal percentage inside the arc. Overall, the Cougars have an effective field goal percentage of 46.6% when playing at home which is the 313th lowest mark in the nation. Moving forward, the Cougars have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: To make matters worse, they may be without their point guard Isaac Bonton who is questionable with a leg injury. Boston leads the team in touches when he is on the court while ranking second in shots — so the Washington State offense will likely suffer if he is not able to play or if he is hindered with his leg. 25* CBB Sunday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
Southern Utah v. Weber State OVER 136 |
Top |
71-82 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (14-12) has lost three straight games after their 68-66 loss at Northern Colorado as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Weber State (10-16) has lost their last three games with their 77-63 loss at Montana State as a 5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunderbirds have played 7 of their last 10 games over the total after a loss on the road by 3 points or less. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Southern Utah has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing three straight games to Big Sky opponents. Now the Thunderbirds go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Southern Utah has not made more than three shots from behind the arc in two straight games — but they have then played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total after failing to make more than three shots from 3-point range in two straight games. They now face a Wildcats team that is 328th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 37.3% of their shots from downtown. Weber State allows their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots this season — and the Thunderbirds have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 45% of their shots. Southern Utah has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. Weber State has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. The Wildcats have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two straight games. They return home where they are 7-4 while making 49.4% of their shots which is generating 80.5 PPG. Weber State has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog. The Wildcats’ play on the defensive end of the court has waned as of late. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.9% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 71.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah will be looking to avenge a 75-65 upset loss at home to Weber State back on January 30th. The Thunderbirds have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-20 |
Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 128.5 |
Top |
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-16) has lost five straight games with their 68-57 loss at TCU on Saturday as a 3-point underdog. Texas Tech (16-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Horned Frogs to just 44.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Kansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Kansas State has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 9.5 to 12 points. The Wildcats have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall. And in their last 15 games with the Total set at no higher than 129.5, Kansas State has played 12 of these games Over the Total. Texas Tech has splayed 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Red Raiders return home where they are 12-2 this season while making 48.1% of their shots which has generated 76.6 PPG. Texas Tech has played 6 straight home games Over the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They also have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 77-63 loss at home to Texas Tech back on January 14th — and the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-20 |
Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5 |
|
67-76 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Northwestern Wildcats (625) and the Maryland Terrapins (626). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (6-18) has lost nine straight games with their 77-61 loss at Penn State as a 12-point underdog on Saturday. Maryland (21-4) has won their last eight games with their 67-60 upset win at Michigan State on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home after a point spread victory. Maryland defeated the Spartans despite allowing them to make 41.8% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. The Terrapins are 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They return home where they are 14-0 wheel holding their opponents to just 59.3 PPG on 36.2% shooting. Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 21 of their last 29 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Northwestern has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Wildcats have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Northwestern lost that game against the Nittany Lions despite shooting 46.6% from the field which was the highest field goal percentage in their last six games. The Wildcats are last in the Big Ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are still shooting just 39.6% from the field in their last five games which has generated only 59.2 PPG. The Under is 15-7-1 in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Wildcats have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Northwestern shoots only 40.8% in Big Ten play which has resulted in just 61.6 PPG. The Wildcats have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total in conference play. Maryland is making only 40.2% of their shots on conference play — but they are holding their opponents to just 39.5% shooting in Big Ten play. The Terrapins have played 22 of their las 34 games Under the Total in conference play. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Northwestern Wildcats (625) and the Maryland Terrapins (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
Bradley v. Southern Illinois UNDER 126.5 |
|
69-67 |
Loss |
-112 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (641) and the Southern Illinois Salukis (642). THE SITUATION: Bradley (17-9) has won their last two games with their 72-61 win over Indiana State as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Southern Illinois (15-11) had their seven-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 55-38 loss at Valparaiso where they were 3.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Salukis shot a season-low 23.6% from the field on Wednesday against the Crusaders — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not making at least 33% of their shots in their last game. Southern Illinois has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not reaching at least 50 points in their last game. Additionally, the Salukis have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit setback. The return home where they are holding their guests to just 39.2% shooting which is translating into only 56.8 PPG. Southern Illinois has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Bradley has seen the Under go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a victory on their home court. The Braves go back on the road where they are making just 39.1% of their shots which has resulted in only 64.3 PPG. Bradley has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total. They also have seen the Under go 10-2-1 in their last 13 road games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois will be looking to avenge a 67-48 loss at Bradley back on January 11th. The Salukis have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have played 50 of their last 81 games when looking to avenge loss where they did not score at least 60 points. 10* CBB Bradley-SUI CBS Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (641) and the Southern Illinois Salukis (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
Rider v. Siena UNDER 147.5 |
Top |
64-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rider Broncs (857) and the Siena Saints (858). THE SITUATION: Rider (14-9) has won five of their last six games with their 73-58 victory over Niagara last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Siena (11-10) has won four of their last five games with their 65-49 win over Fairfield as an 8-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Rider has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a victory. The Broncs won that game over the Purple Eaters by making 54.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort of their season. But now Rider goes back on the road where they are making just 42.3% of their shots. The Broncs have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Rider is playing their best defense of the year at this point of the season after holding Niagara to just 33.3% shooting on Sunday. The Broncs have held their last five opponents to just 39% shooting which has resulted in just 64.6 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. Rider will be challenged to defend their defensive glass against this Saints team that leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots. The Broncs are 43rd in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 24.5% of their missed shots. Rider has held their last two opponents to just 5 and 7 offensive rebounds in their last two games — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. And while Siena averages a +4.6 net Rebounding Per Game margin this year, the Broncs have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. The Saints have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Siena has also played 8 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Saints stay at home where they have held their guests to just 41.2% shooting which has generated only 64.7 PPG. Siena has played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Siena is also playing their best defense of the season after limiting the Stags to just 30.2% shooting last Friday. The Saints have limited their last five opponents to only 38% shooting which has resulted in just 63.2 PPG. Siena has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena will be looking to avenge an 85-77 loss at Rider back on January 5th — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with revenge where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Rider Broncs (857) and the Siena Saints (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
IUPU-Indianapolis v. Northern Kentucky OVER 145 |
|
70-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis Jaguars (853) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (854). THE SITUATION: IUPUI (6-20) has lost four straight games with their 80-79 win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Northern Kentucky (18-7) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests with their 84-65 win over Detroit last Saturday as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: IUPUI has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss to a Horizon League conference rival. The Jaguars have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. IUPUI shot just 32.9% from the field in that game against the Panthers which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last sixteen games. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have allowed the home team to score 80.3 PPG. IUPUI has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. This team is scoring a healthy 78.2 PPG over their last five games — but they have allowed 83.8 PPG in those games as well. Northern Kentucky has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Norse stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Northern Kentucky is scoring 81.4 PPG at home where they are making 46.2% of their shots. The Norse should approach or exceed this scoring average as they are 2nd in the Horizon League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are facing a Jaguars team that is last in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 12th by a 96-71 score. IUPUI has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis Jaguars (853) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (854). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-20 |
SIU-Edwardsville v. Eastern Illinois OVER 140.5 |
Top |
76-74 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville Cougars (651) and the Eastern Illinois Panthers (652). THE SITUATION: SIU-Edwardsville (6-19) snapped their four-game losing streak last Saturday with their 83-75 upset victory against Eastern Kentucky as a 2-point underdog. Eastern Illinois (12-12) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 71-65 win over Morehead State as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:
|
02-13-20 |
Clippers v. Celtics UNDER 228 |
Top |
133-141 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (37-17) has lost two of their last three games with their 110-103 upset loss at Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (37-16) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 116-105 loss at Houston as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers will be playing their third game in the last five days tonight before the All-Star break begins tomorrow — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing their third game in five days. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Clippers have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. It is not often when Doc Rivers’ team is getting the points — and that usually means that ramp things up on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 24 of their last 32 road games as an underdog which includes them playing seven straight games on the road as a dog getting up to 6 points. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against opponents with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And while the Celtics are shooting 46.3% from the field this season, Los Angeles has played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a 46% or better field goal percentage. Boston has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. The Celtics return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Boston has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Celtics have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams at home in the Staples Center with their 107-104 victory as a 7.5-point favorite on November 20th. Boston has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their minds. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-20 |
Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 232 |
Top |
105-116 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (585) and the Houston Rockets (586). THE SITUATION: Boston (37-15) has won seven straight games after their 112-111 win at Oklahoma City as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (33-20) has lost their last two games with their 114-113 upset loss against Utah on Sunday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Boston has not covered the point spread in their last two games with their victory over the Thunder preceded by a 112-107 win at home against Atlanta. The Celtics have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. Boston stays on the road where they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 3 points or less. Houston has fully embraced small-ball which was cemented with the trade of their center Clint Capela last week. The Rockets are getting killed on the boards as they have been out-rebounded by 10 and 15 boards in their last two games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 10 boards in two straight games. Houston has allowed their last four opponents shoot at least 47% from the field while scoring at least 110 points in all four games but they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in four straight games. Small-ball has not resulted in an uptick of scoring (except for their upset win over the Lakers, unfortunately for us, when Eric Gordon and the rest of the team could not miss from 3-point land): they are making only 42.8% of their shots over their last five games for a 113.4 PPG scoring average which is well behind their 119.3 PPG/45.1% field goal percentage for the season. Houston has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. And in their last 51 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Rockets have played 39 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Boston’s biggest weakness is the lack of interior defenders — but that will not be an issue against this Rockets team. The Celtics do a good job of defending the arc as they rank 7th in the league by holding their opponents to make just 34.5% of their shots behind the arc. These two teams have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 meetings in Houston Under the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (585) and the Houston Rockets (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-20 |
Bulls v. 76ers OVER 213 |
Top |
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). THE SITUATION: Chicago (19-34) has lost four games in a row with their 125-119 loss at home to New Orleans on Thursday as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (32-21) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 119-107 win over Memphis as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls are struggling on the defensive end of the court — they allowed the Pelicans to make 56.3% of their shots. Chicago allowed the Raptors to shoot 56% from the field in their previous game as well — they have allowed their last four opponents to shoot at least 51.4% and five of their last six opponents have shot at least 50% from the field. The Bulls have then played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 55%. Furthermore, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Bulls have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 54.5% from the field which has generated 122/.2 PPG. But Chicago has also made 47.0% of their shots over that span which has resulted in them averaging 111.0 PPG in those last five games. The Bulls have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Bulls have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia played their best defensive game in their last nine contests on Friday by holding then Grizzlies to just 40.9% shooting from the field. But the 76ers have still allowed their last five opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has resulted in 119.8 PPG that they have allowed during that span. Philly has allowed their last five opponents to score at least 107 points — and they have then played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to score at least 105 points. The Sixers stay at home where they are 23-2 while making 48.5% of their shots which has resulted in 111.7 PPG. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The 76ers have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 100-89 loss at Philadelphia back on January 17th — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a same-season loss. These two teams have played 13 of their last 19 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-20 |
Cincinnati v. Connecticut UNDER 133.5 |
|
71-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bearcats (831) and the Connecticut Huskies (832). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (15-7) has won five games in a row with their 80-79 upset in at Wichita State as a 5-point underdog on Thursday. UConn (12-10) also comes off an upset victory as well as they knocked off Tulsa on the road on Thursday by a 72-56 score as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bearcats made 54.5% of their shots in shocking the Shockers on Thursday — that was the best shooting effort in their last eleven contests. But Cincinnati also allowed Wichita State to make 48.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage all season. The Bearcats have still held their last five opponents to just 39.7% shooting from the field. Cincinnati has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a victory over a conference rival — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Bearcats stay on the road where they are making only 42.9% of their shots. Cincinnati has seen the Under go 48-16-2 in their last 66 games on the road — and the Under is also 39-12-2 in their last 53 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Bearcats have also played 47 of their last 60 road games Under the Total as a favorite. UConn made 51.9% of their shots in their upset victory on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Yet this team is still only making 39.1% of their shots over their last five games — so the Regression Gods are likely to visit Connecticut this afternoon. The Huskies have then played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total after an upset victory. UConn has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They return home where they are only allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots which has resulted in just 65.1 PPG. But the Huskies are making just 41.7% of their shots at home. UConn has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Huskies have also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: UConn will be looking to avenge a 67-51 loss at Cincinnati back on January 1st. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Cincinnati-UConn CBS Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bearcats (831) and the Connecticut Huskies (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-20 |
Temple v. Memphis UNDER 136.5 |
Top |
65-79 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (827) and the Memphis Tigers (828). THE SITUATION: Temple (11-10) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 76-64 win at home against East Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite. Memphis (16-5) has won their last two games with their 70-63 win over UConn as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls made 48.9% of their shots on Saturday in their victory over the Pirates which was the best shooting mark in their last ten games. But Temple has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Owls go back on the road where they are making only 36.4% of their shots which is translating into just 63.4 PPG. Temple ranks only 350th in the nation (out of 353 Division I teams) with an effective field goal percentage of 39.4% due mostly to their 37.7% shooting mark inside the arc which is also 350th in the nation — and they rank 310th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Owls have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Temple has also played 6 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. The Owls are last in the American Athletic Conference overall in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they play strong defense for head coach Aaron McKie. Temple ranks 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with that ranking improving to 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Memphis has been outstanding on defense this season for head coach Penny Hardaway — they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based on their nation-leading opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.7%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total after a win over a conference opponent. Memphis has also played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But this team has struggled to score points as of late as they are making just 41.5% of their shots over their last five games which is has resulted in just 59.8 PPG. The Tigers stay at home where they are limiting their guests to only 34.2% shooting from the field which has translated into just 59.8 PPG. Memphis has the 3rd best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. They have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Temple has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (827) and the Memphis Tigers (828). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
Arizona State v. Washington UNDER 137.5 |
|
87-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (821) and the Washington Huskies (822). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (12-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 67-65 upset loss at Washington State as a 2-point favorite. Washington (12-10) has lost four straight games after their 75-72 loss at home to Arizona as a 2-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. Arizona State had only 9 assists in that game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they did not generate more than 9 assists in their last game. The Sun Devils have played their last two games Under the Total — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Arizona State stays on the road where they are making only 40.9% of their shots which has resulted in just 64.7 PPG. But the Sun Devils play tough defense — they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with that ranking improving to 21st in the country when looking at defensive numbers on the road. Arizona State has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Sun Devils have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played a decisive 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Huskies did nail 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc in that game — but they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-pointers. They also have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after making at least 13 shots from downtown in their last game. Yet despite those numbers, Washington has made only 42.9% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in only 65.0 PPG. The Huskies stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 36.9% shooting which has resulted in just 61.9 PPG. The Huskies have the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Pac-12 play executing the 2-3 zone of head coach Mike Hopkins — and they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have also played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Huskies have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season Under the Total against opponents who are winning 60 to 80% of their games. Arizona State has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (821) and the Washington Huskies (822). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
Colorado v. USC UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
78-57 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (819) and the USC Trojans (820). THE SITUATION: Colorado (16-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 72-68 upset loss at UCLA as a 4.5-point favorite. USC (17-4) has won five of their last six contests with their 56-52 win over Utah as an 8-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buffaloes have played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 27 of their last 36 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Colorado stays on the road where they are making only 38.9% of their shots which is resulting in just 65.6 PPG. The Buffaloes are making just 41.3% of their shots inside the arc on the road which is 338th in the nation. This difficulty in shooting 2-pointers has dragged their effective field goal percentage on the road to just a 44.2% mark on the road which is 300th in the country. Colorado has played 25 of their last 34 road games Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. But this Buffaloes teams does play excellent defense — they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And that ranking improves when only looking at how teams play on the road where Colorado ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. USC has played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Trojans have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row against conference opponents. USC has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Trojans stay at home where they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record after fifteen games into the season. USC also plays tough defense — they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 2nd in the Pac-12 in that metric in conference play. They hold their visitors to just 38.7% shooting on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado out-rebounds their opponents by +6.1 RPG — but the Trojans have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. And while USC is outscoring their opponents by +6.3 PPG, the Buffaloes have played 6 straight games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 PPG. 25* CBB FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (819) and the USC Trojans (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
76ers v. Celtics UNDER 215 |
Top |
95-116 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (525) and the Boston Celtics (526). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (31-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 127-117 upset loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite. Boston (32-15) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 119-104 win over Golden State as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers allowed the Hawks to make 48.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last nine games. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. This is the Sixers just fourth game in the last ten days — and they have played 25 of their last 34 games when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. Philly stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the 76ers have played 7 straight games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Boston nailed 47.7% of their shots on Thursday in what was their best shooting performance in their last four games. The Celtics have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 10 points. Boston has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Celtics have scored at least 108 points in eight straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Boston has also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics will have revenge on their minds as they have lost their last four encounters with the 76ers with their last meeting being on January 9th where Philly defeated them by a 109-90 score. Boston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge at least three straight losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (525) and the Boston Celtics (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
Connecticut v. Memphis UNDER 134.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (619) and the Memphis Tigers (620). THE SITUATION: UConn (11-9) snapped their four-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 78-63 win over Temple as a 4.5-point favorite. Memphis (15-5) ended their two-game losing streak on Wednesday when they defeated Central Florida in their gym by a 59-57 score as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. UConn has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. The Huskies managed that victory despite making just 35.5% of their shots. UConn has not shot better than 39.7% over their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after failing to shoot better than 40% in three straight games. Over their last five contests, the Huskies have a 39.5% field goal percentage. UConn is last in the American Athletic Conference with an effective field goal percentage of just 42.5% — and they are also last in the conference by making just 26.0% of their 3-point attempts. It gets even worse for the Huskies when they are playing on the road where they are scoring just 64.0 PPG. UConn’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency is just 307th in the nation when playing on the road — and they are making only 24.2% of their 3-pointers in their true road games. But the good news for head coach Dan Hurley’s team is that they play very good defense on the road as they rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. UConn has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Huskies have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Memphis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Tigers have also played 6 straight home games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. Memphis averages 73.7 PPG this season but that mark has plummeted over their last five games to a mere 59.4 PPG scoring average with a 42.8% field goal percentage. But head coach Penny Hardaway can lean on the outstanding defensive this team played. The Tigers lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.8% fueled by their tough interior defense that is limiting their opponents to just 39.2% shooting inside the arc which is 2nd best in the country. Overall, Memphis ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that number improves to them being 7th in the nation in that metric when they are playing on their home court. The Tigers limit their guests to scoring just 60.9 PPG on 34.3% shooting. Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. 25* CBB CBS-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (619) and the Memphis Tigers (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-20 |
Northeastern v. William & Mary OVER 141 |
Top |
58-59 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northeastern Huskies (619) and the William & Mary Pride (620). THE SITUATION: Northeastern (11-10) has lost two of their last three games with their 76-74 loss to Delaware on Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. William & Mary (15-7) has lost two of their last three games as well after their 70-58 loss to Towson State as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less — and this includes them playing 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less at home. This is an outstanding team in shooting the basketball that ranks 6th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. Northeastern also ranks 4th in the nation by making 40.4% of their shots behind the arc. Those numbers do not fall off much when they are playing away from — they nail 37.7% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 26th best in the country which helps maintain their effective field goal percentage of 55% which is 11th best in the nation for teams playing on the road. The Huskies have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Northeastern should score plenty of points against this Pride defense that ranks 232nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Huskies average 72.7 PPG on the road — and they are scoring 76.8 PPG in their last five games while making 48.5% of their shots from the field. But Northeastern has allowed their last five opponents to also make 48.5% of their shots as well. William & Mary has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. And while that game finished Under the 137 point Total, the Pride have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. William & Mary should be able to keep up with the Huskies scoring as they rank 14th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. The Pride will likely live inside against Northeastern — they rank 19th in the nation by making 54.7% of their 2-point shots while the Huskies rank 321st in the country by allowing their opponents to make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc. William & Mary is making 47.9% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in 76.7 PPG. The Pride have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, William & Mary has played 23 of their last 34 home games Over the Total as the favorite — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of William & Mary’s 66-64 upset victory over the Huskies back on January 4th. Northeastern shot just 43.5% from the field in that game while making just 6 of 19 (31.6%) of their shots from behind the arc in a game that saw only 65 respective possessions. The tempo should be quicker in this rematch (with the Huskies making more shots) — the Pride average 67.6 possessions per game while Northeastern averages 67.5 possessions in conference play. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northeastern Huskies (619) and the William & Mary Pride (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-20 |
Jazz v. Spurs OVER 220.5 |
|
120-127 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the San Antonio Spurs (564). THE SITUATION: Utah (32-14) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Monday in their 126-117 loss to Houston as a 14.5-point favorite. San Antonio (20-26) has lost three games in a row with their 110-109 loss at Chicago as a 2-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jazz have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Utah has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. The Jazz made 50.6% of their shots on Monday — and they are averaging 50.6% shooting over their last five games which has translated into 119.8 PPG. Now this team goes on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total as a favorite. Furthermore, Utah has played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 229.5 point range. And while the Jazz have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 22 of their last 32 games on the road Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. San Antonio has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning at least three games in a row. Furthermore, while the Spurs have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.2%, the Jazz have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 46% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have also played 21 of their last 27 encounters in San Antonio Over the Total. Expect another higher scoring game between these two teams. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the San Antonio Spurs (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-20 |
Cavs v. Pistons OVER 218 |
Top |
115-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (527) and the Detroit Pistons (528). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (12-34) has lost seven straight games after their 118-106 loss to Chicago on Saturday as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (17-30) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 121-111 loss to Brooklyn on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Defense has been a significant problem for this team under first-year head coach John Beilein. The Cavaliers have allowed their last five opponents to make 52.2% of their shots from the field. Cleveland now goes back on the road where their home hosts are making 49.5% of their shots which has translated into 115.4 PPG. The Cavaliers gave played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total. Cleveland has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Detroit has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread setback. The Pistons made only 41.3% of their shots on Friday which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last six contests. Detroit does expect to get Reggie Jackson back tonight as he is listed as probable despite his back issues. The Pistons stay at home where they are making 47.5% of their shots which has resulted in 111.9 PPG. Detroit is also allowing its visitors to score 112.1 PPG on 47.2% shooting from the field. The Pistons have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Detroit has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight meetings Over the Total. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (527) and the Detroit Pistons (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-25-20 |
Thunder v. Wolves OVER 225 |
|
113-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (507) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (508). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (27-19) has won four straight games with their 140-111 blowout win over Atlanta last night as an 8-point favorite. Minnesota (15-30) has lost eight games in a row with their 131-124 loss at home to Houston yesterday as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunder made 58.1% of their shots against the Hawks which was the fifth game in their last seven contests where they made at least 50% of their shots in their last game. Oklahoma City is making 51.3% of their shots over their last five games which has generated 119.8 PPG over that span. The Thunder have also allowed their opponents to score 110.6 PPG in those last five contests. OKC has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Thunder go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% or lower on their home court. Oklahoma City has also played 12 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as the favorite. Minnesota allowed the Rockets to make 51.6% of their shots last night — that was the sixth time in their last eight games where they allowed their opponent to hit at least 50% of their shots. The Timberwolves have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 50.7% from the field which has resulted in them scoring 118.6 PPG over that span. Minnesota has averaged 112.0 PPG themselves over their last five games. The Timberwolves have played a decisive 42 of their last 61 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They stay at home where they have played 21 of their last 30 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will be looking to avenge a 117-104 loss at home to Oklahoma City back on January 13th. The T-Wolves have played 28 of their last 41 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. These two teams have played 6 straight Overs — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing each other in Minnesota. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (507) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-24-20 |
Celtics v. Magic UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
109-98 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (563) and the Orlando Magic (564). THE SITUATION: Boston (29-14) has won two straight games with their 119-95 win over Memphis on Wednesday as a 7-point favorite. Orlando (21-24) has lost three of their last four games after their 120-114 loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic played their worst defensive game of the season on Wednesday against the Thunder as they allowed them to make 60.5% of their shots. Orlando has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 60% of their shots. The Magic have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Orlando has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less including four of these last five situations. The Magic also nailed 47.8% of their shots against the Thunder which was tied for second-best in their last nineteen contests. Now Orlando returns home where they are holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting from the field. The Magic have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Orlando has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as a favorite. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Celtics now go on the road where they are scoring 108.5 PPG on 44.1% shooting from the field — and those numbers are a bit below their 112.5 PPG scoring average overall on 46.1% shooting. Boston will be undermanned tonight with Jayson Tatum out with a groin injury along with Enes Kanter who is dealing with a foot injury — and Jaylen Brown is questionable with the ankle injury that he has been dealing with all month. That means more playing time for Marcus Smart who is an outstanding defender but inconsistent on the offensive end of the court. The Celtics have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and Boston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing the Magic in Orlando. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (563) and the Orlando Magic (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-20 |
Connecticut v. Houston UNDER 130 |
Top |
59-63 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (663) and the Houston Cougars (664). THE SITUATION: UConn (10-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 61-55 loss at Villanova on Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Houston (15-4) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 65-54 upset win at Wichita State on Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. UConn made 49% of their shots in their losing effort to the Wildcats in that game which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. Yet the Huskies are only making 40.3% of their shots still over their last five games. They stay on the road where they are making just 41.8% of their shots which is resulting in just 64.7 PPG. UConn has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Houston has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. And while the Cougars have only allowed 25 and 20 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total at home after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in at least two straight games. Houston returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 35.2% shooting from the field which is resulting in just 60.9 PPG. The Cougars are improving on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just 38.2% shooting. But Houston is not as dynamic on offense when playing on their home court this season. The Cougars are 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while posting an effective field goal percentage of 49.5% — but when playing at home, their effective field goal percentage drops to 49.1% while their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummets to just 64th in the nation. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: UConn has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total when getting the points as the underdog. 5* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (663) and the Houston Cougars (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-20 |
California v. USC UNDER 133 |
Top |
56-88 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (693) and the USC Trojans (694). THE SITUATION: California (8-8) has won two straight games with their 61-58 upset win at home against Washington on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. USC (13-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 74-63 upset win at UCLA last Saturday as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans shot 57.4% from the field in their upset win over the Bruins which was their best shooting effort of the season. USC also held UCLA to just 37.9% shooting with that defensive performance being more indicative of their level of play since they have held their last five opponents to just 37.3% shooting from the field. USC has played an eye-popping 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they made 57% of their shots while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting from the field. Additionally, the Trojans have played 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now after playing their last three games on the road, USC returns home to make their Pac-12 debut in front of their home fans this season. The Trojans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. The Under is 35-16-1 in USC’s last 52 games at home — and the Under is 21-8-1 in their last 30 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 9 home games in conference play, the Trojans have played 8 of these games Under the Total. California has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win over a Pac-12 opponent — and they have played 10 straight games on the road Under the Total after playing a game at home as an underdog. And while the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games. Cal looks to build off their best defensive performance of the season as they held the Huskies to just 29.5% shooting from the field. But now the Golden Bears go back on the road where they are scoring just 56.0 PPG while making only 36.2% of their shots. Cal ranks 353rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of just 35.3% in their three true road games. And over their last five games, the Golden Bears are making just 39.6% of their shots. Cal has played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total. The Golden Bears have also played 35 of their last 55 games Under the Total as an underdog including the Under going 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when getting the points.
FINAL TAKE: Cal has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 20 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (693) and the USC Trojans (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-10-20 |
Northern Kentucky v. Illinois-Chicago UNDER 135.5 |
|
68-52 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Northern Kentucky Norse (823) and the Illinois-Chicago Flames (824). THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (10-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 75-64 upset win at Oakland as a 2.5-point underdog. Illinois-Chicago (6-11) has lost three in a row with their 64-62 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Norse has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Northern Kentucky made 50% of their shots against the Grizzlies which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Now this team plays their third straight game on the road where they are scoring only 62.9 PPG while making just 40.6% of their shots. But the Norse also limit their home hosts to just 41.4% shooting from the field led by their outstanding perimeter defense. Northern Kentucky is 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 27.2% shooting from behind the arc. The Norse have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Illinois-Chicago has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Now the Flames return home where they are scoring only 66.7 PPG on low 43.9% shooting. Offense is an issue for this team as they rank 264th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But the Flames also come off their best defensive game of the season where they held the Panthers to just 31.7% shooting. Illinois-Chicago holds their guests to just 42% shooting on their home court. The Flames have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky’s win at Oakland cruised Over the 130.5 point total in that contest — but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Illinois-Chicago has played 10 straight home games Under the Total after a game against a fellow Horizon League rival. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Northern Kentucky Norse (823) and the Illinois-Chicago Flames (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-20 |
Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 226 |
Top |
102-116 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (505) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (506). THE SITUATION: Portland (16-22) Portland (16-22) has won two of their last three games with their 101-99 upset win at Toronto as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Minnesota (14-22) saw their two-game winning streak on Tuesday with their 119-112 loss at Memphis as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Defense has been for the Trail Blazers this season but they stepped up on Tuesday by holding the Raptors to just 36.5% shooting from the field. With Rodney Hood on the shelf with an Achilles’ injury, his absence allows head coach Terry Stotts to deploy more defensive-friendly lineups. But missing Hood over the last month takes away from Portland’s offensive attack. They are scoring 3.4 PPG less over their last five games versus their 112.0 PPG season average. They are playing their fifth straight game on the road tonight — and they abbe played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing their fourth game on the road in the last seven days. The Trail Blazers have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Portland has played 6 straight road games Under the Total as a favorite. Minnesota will look to play better on the defensive end of the court tonight after surrendering 68 points in the second half including a whopping 37 points in the final 12 minutes in their loss to the Grizzlies. Head coach Ryan Saunders had his team playing much better defense as of late. While the Timberwolves rank 15th in the NBA in Defensive Rating, they are 3rd best in the league over their last five games even after their dismal second half effort on Tuesday. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The T-Wolves return home where they are making only 41.2% of their shots which has translated into 108.5 PPG. Minnesota will likely be without their best offensive player tonight as well with Karl Anthony-Towns listed as questionable with his knee injury that has kept him out the last eleven games. Over their last five games with Anthony-Towns, the Timberwolves are scoring only 105.4 PPG on 44.9% shooting from the field — and their 26th Offensive Rating are a few notches below their 23rd ranking overall for the season. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Timberwolves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will be looking to avenge a 113-106 loss at Portland back on December 21st. The Timberwolves have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (505) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-20 |
SE Missouri State v. Austin Peay OVER 142 |
Top |
63-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (669) and the Austin Peay Governors (670). THE SITUATION: SE Missouri State (4-9) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 74-59 win over Missouri Baptist. Austin Peay (6-7) has lost two of their last three games with their 78-48 loss at Georgia on Monday as a 13-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Governors shot just 26.6% from the field in their loss to the Bulldogs — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to make at least 33% of their shots in their last game. Austin Peay has also played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Governors have play 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 50 points in their last game. Austin Peay returns home where they are shooting 52.5% from the field which has translated into 90.6 PPG in their five games on their home court. The Governors have an effective field goal percentage of 59.2% at home which is the 27th best mark in the nation. Austin Peay has played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total at home — and they have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Governors do struggle on the defensive end of the court as they have allowed five of their last six opponents make at least 50.7% of their shots. Over their last five games, Austin Peay is allowing 75.6 PPG with those five opponents shooting 51.3%. SE Missouri State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while the Redhawks have only covered the point spread once in their last five boarded games, they have then played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. SE Missouri State opens conference play having played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total against Ohio Valley foes. They have also played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Redhawks are allowing their home hosts to make 47.3% of their shots — and they have also allowed their last five opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that struggle on defense with SE Missouri State ranking 276th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and Austin Peay ranking 321st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (669) and the Austin Peay Governors (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-19 |
Bucks v. 76ers OVER 220.5 |
Top |
109-121 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 2:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (27-4) has won three straight games with their 117-89 win over Indiana on Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Philadelphia (22-10) snapped a three-game losing streak by winning their last two games after their 125-109 win over Detroit on Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks win over the Pacers did not reach the 220 point total — but they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished below the number. Milwaukee shot just 42.3% from the field which was their second-lowest field goal percentage all season. The Bucks are still second in the NBA in Offensive Rating — and they lead the league in pace by averaging 105.2 possessions per contest. Milwaukee is scoring 119.8 PPG on the road while making a robust 48.1% of their shots. Their victory over the Pacers came on the heels of a 123-102 win in New York over the Knicks — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after two straight double-digit wins while also playing 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total after winning two straight games by 10 or more points. Milwaukee has also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after two straight victories by at least 20 points. The Bucks will be without point guard Eric Bledsoe for the sixth straight game — and they will miss his ball-hawking defensive skills. Milwaukee is allowing their last five opponents (without Bledsoe) to make 42.9% of their shots which is a bit higher than their 41.4 opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Now the Bucks go back on the road where the Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Milwaukee does a fantastic job of protecting the rim with either Brook or Robin Lopez on the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo — but this does come at the expense of allowing their opponents to launch 3s. The Bucks’ opponents are taking 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc which is the third-highest mark in the league. Philadelphia is 9th in the NBA by making 36.3% of their 3-point shots. The 76ers are scoring 110.8 PPG on their home court on 47.8% shooting from the field. Philly has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Sixers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. But defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed their last seven opponents to score at least 109 PPG. The Pistons were the second opponent in their last three games to nail at least 51.2% of their shots from the field. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since their 128-122 scoring fest in Philadelphia back on April 4th that the Bucks won. These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Philadelphia Over the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-19 |
Magic v. Blazers OVER 217.5 |
|
103-118 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). THE SITUATION: Orlando (12-16) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 113-104 loss in Denver on Wednesday as a 9-point underdog. Portland (12-16) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 122-112 win over Golden State as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Magic have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. Orlando is struggling on the defensive end of the court — they are allowing 113.4 PPG while allowing their opponents to 49.2% shooting over their last five games. The Magic have played four straight Overs — and not only have they played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs but they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Orlando stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total. Portland has played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total at home after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Blazers stay at home where the Over is 27-10-1 in their last 38 contests. The Over is also 11-5-1 in Portland’s last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 45 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, the game finished Over the Total 29 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Magic has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog. Expect a higher scoring game. Together, these team trends produce our specific 131-38-2 combined angle for this situation. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-20-19 |
Kings v. Pacers UNDER 208.5 |
|
105-119 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (539) and the Indiana Pacers (540). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (12-15) has lost two of their last three games with their 110-102 upset loss at Charlotte on Tuesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Indiana (19-9) has won four straight games with their 105-102 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under after a point spread loss. Sacramento has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The 48.1% field goal percentage of the Hornets in that game was the highest shooting mark that the Kings have allowed in their last four games. Over their last five contests, Sacramento is holding their opponents to just 45.2% shooting which is translating into 100.6 PPG — both those marks are far below the 107.0 PPG along with the 46.8% shooting they are allowing overall this seasons. The Kings have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Sacramento has also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their 20 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Indiana has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. The Pacers have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. And while Indiana has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Pacers have played three straight Unders — and they have then paled 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Indiana has held its last five opponents to just 41.9% shooting from the field. Indiana has stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. The Kings have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against the Pacers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Indiana. 20* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (539) and the Indiana Pacers (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-19 |
St. Mary's v. Arizona State UNDER 137 |
Top |
96-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (697) and the Arizona State Sun Devils (698). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (9-2) enters this game coming off an 89-77 win at California as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Arizona State (8-2) has won five games in a row with their 79-59 win over Georgia as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be playing a neutral court at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gaels have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after a win on the road where they scored at least 85 points. Saint Mary’s made 54.3% of their shots in their game against the Golden Bears which was their second-highest shooting percentage of the season. But the Gaels need to tighten things up on defense after allowing Cal to make 50% of their shots after Dayton made 53.8% of their shots in their previous game. Saint Mary’s has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, the Gaels have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 75 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Under is 50-24-1. Arizona State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Sun Devils have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. Arizona State made 49.3% of their shots which was their best shooting mark of the season. The Sun Devils have scored at least 77 points in three straight games — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight contests. But now this team travels from Tempe to play this game in Phoenix — and they are making just 43.6% of their shots on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when the favorite — and the Under is 23-9-1 in their last 33 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Showcase Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (697) and the Arizona State Sun Devils (698). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-17-19 |
Kings v. Hornets UNDER 207 |
|
102-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (501) and the Charlotte Hornets (502). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (12-14) has won four of their last five games with their 100-79 win at Golden State on Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite. Charlotte (12-17) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 107-85 loss at Indiana as an 11.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings are coming off their best shooting effort of the season on Sunday as they made 60.3% of their shots from the field. But Sacramento has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Under is also 22-9-1 in the Kings’ last 32 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Furthermore, Sacramento has played 15 of their last 23 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Charlotte is a scrappy team that played their worst defensive game in their last four contests on Sunday by allowing the Pacers to make 45.5% of their shots from the field. The Hornets have still held their last five opponents to just 41.8% shooting which has translated into just 103.4 PPG. Charlotte is no offensive juggernaut either as they have not shot better than 44.7% from the field in six straight games — and they are averaging just 38.8% shooting over their last five games. The Hornets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Charlotte has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least 20 points. Now the Hornets return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Sacramento has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (501) and the Charlotte Hornets (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-14-19 |
Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 205 |
Top |
102-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (11-13) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 94-93 loss at Sacramento as a 2-point underdog. Denver (15-8) ended their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 114-99 win over Portland as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Oklahoma City has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. Now this team stays on the road where they are making only 43.8% of their shots as compared to their 46.5% shooting mark overall. The Thunder have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. Oklahoma City has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Denver made 47.7% of their shots on Thursday fueled by nailing 18 of their 36 shots from behind the arc — so they are likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods when it comes to their outside shooting. As it is, the Nuggets have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Denver has also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Now this team stays at home where they have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 14 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games played in Denver Under the Total. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-19 |
Knicks v. Kings UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
103-101 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between New York Knicks (545) and the Sacramento Kings (546). THE SITUATION: New York (5-20) snapped their ten-game winning streak on Wednesday with their 124-122 win at Golden State as a 4.5-point underdog. Sacramento (11-13) has won their last three games with their 94-93 win over Oklahoma City on Wednesday as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win. New York has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Under is 13-4-1 in New York’s last 18 games when playing with one day of rest. This team has played better defense under interim head coach Mike Miller since management fired David Fizdale. The Knicks have held their last two opponents to 43.3% shooting. New York also made a surprising 47.8% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last seventeen contests. But this is not a strong offensive team — Marcus Morris is their leading scoring. They are still only making 39% of their shots over their last five games — and they are shooting just 41.7% when playing on the road. The Under is 38-18-1 in the Knicks’ last 57 games as an underdog. And in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record, the game finished Under the Total all 4 times. Sacramento has seen the Under go 21-9-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Kings stay at home where they ave played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have also played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Sacramento has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Sacramento. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between New York Knicks (545) and the Sacramento Kings (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-11-19 |
Wisconsin v. Rutgers UNDER 125 |
Top |
65-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (635) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (636). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (5-4) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 84-64 win over Indiana as a 2-point underdog. Rutgers (6-3) has lost their last two games with their 77-65 loss at Michigan State as a 14-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Badgers have played 7 straight games Under the Total after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have played 27 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over a Big Ten rival. Wisconsin made 53.6% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort of the season. But this Badgers team has struggled to make baskets this season. They are 280th in the nation by making only 30.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Wisconsin is solid with a 52.9% shooting percentage inside the arc (75th in the nation) but they are facing a Scarlet Knights team that is 41st in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 43.1% shooting inside the arc. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring a mere 54.7 PPG on low 37% shooting. But Wisconsin is still playing solid defense on the road as they are holding their home hosts to just 63.7 PPG on 44.4% shooting. The Badgers have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Wisconsin has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog. Rutgers has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while the Scarlet Knights have played four straight Overs, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Now this team returns home where they are holding their opponents to just 56.5 PPG while limiting them to making only 35.6% of their shots. Rutgers has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Scarlet Knights have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Rutgers is getting much of their offense from crashing the offensive glass — they are pulling down 33.7% of their missed shots which is 47th in the nation. But the Badgers are still doing a good job of protecting their defensive glass this season as they rank 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.0% of their missed shots. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (635) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-10-19 |
Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
92-97 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (573) and the Philadelphia 76ers (574). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 105-102 upset loss at Brooklyn as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (17-7) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven games with their 110-104 win over Toronto as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Denver has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Nuggets lead the NBA by allowing just 101.9 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Philadelphia has seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a point spread victory. The Under is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to just 43.8% shooting from the field. The Under is 12-3-1 in the 76ers’ last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 19-7-1 in Philadelphia’s last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers will be looking to avenge a 100-97 loss at Denver back on November 8th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (573) and the Philadelphia 76ers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-19 |
Warriors v. Bulls UNDER 214.5 |
|
100-98 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Chicago Bulls (520). THE SITUATION: Golden State (4-19) has lost four in a row with their 106-91 loss at Charlotte as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (8-14) has won two straight games with their 106-99 win against Memphis on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and the Under is a decisive 38-18-2 in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Golden State shot 46.2% from the floor in that loss to the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. This team stays on the road where they are making only 42.2% of their shots. Head coach Steve Kerr is developing young players this season given the injuries to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson — and he is seeing better results on the defensive end of the court. The Warriors are allowing 104.4 PPG over their last five games with these opponents making 45.2% of their shots with both marks much better than the 114.2 PPG they are allowing this season on 47.6% shooting. Moving forward, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They stay at home where they are making just 41.6% of their shots. The Bulls have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has the lowest Offensive Rating in the NBA — but they are playing solid on defense after holding the Grizzlies to just 38.5% shooting in their last game. The Bulls have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 80-28-3 combined angle for this situation. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Chicago Bulls (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-19 |
Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 213 |
Top |
121-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (569) and the Utah Jazz (570). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (18-3) enters this game coming off a 105-96 upset win at Denver last night as a 2.5-point underdog. Utah (12-9) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 103-94 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles has also played 25 of their last 34 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Lakers have seen the Under go 18-6-3 in their last 27 games when playing a game without a day of rest — and they have also played 7 of their last road games Under the Total after playing the previous day also away from home. Anthony Davis is an early contender for Defensive Player of the Year with him playing his best defensive basketball in his career. He has helped the Lakers hold their last five opponents to just 42% shooting from the field. Utah has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have also played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now this team returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 42.1% shooting which is translating into just 103.4 PPG. The Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Utah has also played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jazz have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, Utah has played 8 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Utah. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (569) and the Utah Jazz (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Michigan v. North Carolina UNDER 147 |
Top |
73-64 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (769) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (770) in the Semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantic Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan (5-0) won their opening round game in this three-day tournament with their 83-76 win over Iowa State as a 2-point favorite. North Carolina (5-0) joined them in the Semifinals of this event with their 76-67 win over Alabama as a 10-point favorite yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Nassau.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolverines have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Michigan has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Wolverines made 10 3-pointers yesterday en route to a 57.7% shooting percentage from the field. That effort came on the heels of their 55.8% shooting mark at home against Houston-Baptist where they nailed 14 shots from behind the arc. This team is playing at a faster pace with the players having more of a green light to shoot under first-year head coach Juwan Howard. Howard is dialing up some nice schemes for this team — but this Wolverines group lacks a reliable go-to scorer. They are also settling for a bunch of lower percentage of 2-point shots. As it is, Michigan has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in two straight games. The Wolverines have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 10 3-pointers in two straight games. Michigan will likely struggle to score while playing their worst offensive game of the season against this Tar Heels team that ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Wolverines have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court. Michigan has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. North Carolina has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Additionally, the Tar Heels have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. North Carolina also pulled down 60 rebounds yesterday — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after grabbing at least 51 boards in their last game. The Heels allowed the Crimson Tide to shoot 38.2% from the field which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. This is a team that has not scored more than 78 points this season which is uncharacteristic of recent Roy Williams teams in Chapel Hill. It is not surprising that the Tar Heels have struggled to find themselves on offense after they lost their top five scorers from last year’s team with three of those players drafted in the first round of the NBA. Williams has a star in freshman Chase Anthony — but he has a very tough assignment with the Wolverines’ Xavier Simpson likely getting the defensive assignment. The Wolverines also have an outstanding post defender in Jon Teste nicknamed the Big Sleep for his defensive abilities down on the block. Michigan ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Norther Carolina has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. The Tar Heels have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB Battle 4 Atlantic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (769) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-19 |
Butler v. Stanford UNDER 124.5 |
Top |
68-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Butler Bulldogs (673) and the Stanford Cardinal (674) in the championship game of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City, Missouri. THE SITUATION: Butler (6-0) reached the finals of this two-day tournament with their 63-52 upset win over Missouri as a 2-point underdog. Stanford (7-0) comes off a 73-54 upset win over Oklahoma yesterday as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Butler pulled the upset over the Tigers in large measure by making 47.8% of their shots which was the highest shooting percentage for them all season. The Bulldogs have three starters along with two other significant contributors from last year’s team that finished 16-17 after losing in the first round of the NIT. Third-year head coach LaVall Jordan also added three new big men into his rotation this season. Butler is thriving on the defensive end of the court as they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bulldogs have not allowed more than 61 points in a game this season — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. Additionally, Butler has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big East — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. Stanford has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Cardinal pulled the upset over the Sooners despite making just 38.5% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. Not coincidentally, that was Stanford’s first game of the new season that they played away from home. The Cardinal has played 8 of their last 10 games on a neutral court Under the Total — and the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games on a neutral court. Stanford has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Cardinal is also played solid defense under fourth-year head coach Jerod Haase. They rank 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Stanford has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. The Cardinal has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12.
FINAL TAKE: Stanford is living by the 3-point shot as they rank 8th in the nation by making 42.4% of their shots from downtown. But Butler ranks 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 23.0% shooting from the 3-point line. The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total in November while the Cardinal has played 15 of their last 222 games Under the Total in November. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Classic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Butler Bulldogs (673) and the Stanford Cardinal (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-19 |
Memphis v. Oregon UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
74-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (819) and the Memphis Tigers (820). THE SITUATION: Oregon (2-0) has won their first two games this season after their 106-75 win over Boise State on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Memphis (2-0) has also won their first two games of the new season with their 92-46 win over Illinois-Chicago on Friday as a 20-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Moda Denver in Portland.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks were on fire on Saturday as they shot 70% from the field to torch the Broncos. But Oregon has then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Under is also 10-3-1 in the Ducks last 14 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Oregon has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points. The Ducks have played very good defense so far this season — they held Boise State to just 42.9% shooting from the field after limiting Fresno State to just 34.5% shooting in their opening game. This will be Oregon’s first game away from their home court this season — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. And while their win over the Broncos flew over the 136.5 total on Saturday, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, Oregon has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140s — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Memphis has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Tigers made 59.3% of their shots in their victory on Friday while holding the Flames to just a 24.% shooting mark. Memphis has then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where they shot at least 57% while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. Their victory over Illinois-Chicago was preceded by a 97-64 win over South Carolina State where they held them to just 36.2% shooting — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after winning their previous two games by at least 20 points. Freshman James Wiseman will likely play in this game with the court-ordered injunction still in effect that has blocked the NCAA’s decision to make him ineligible — the seven-footer had five blocks on Friday. Wiseman should be dominant on defense inside the paint against this Ducks team that lacks size. Moving forward, the Under is 6-0-1 in Oregon’s last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Memphis has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Phil Knight Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (819) and the Memphis Tigers (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-19 |
Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141 |
Top |
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (689) and the Kentucky Wildcats (690). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (0-0) returns two starters from last year’s team that lost to Texas Tech in the Final Four. Kentucky (0-0) has one starter back from last year’s group that lost in overtime to Auburn in the Elite Eight. This game is the second contest in the two Champions Classic games being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans closed out last season having played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. This Michigan State team will once again be led by a Player of the Year candidate in Cassius Winston. But this team lacks a reliable second scoring option given the injuries to Joshua Langford that will keep off the court until at least January at the earliest. It looks like Kyle Ahrens will be able to play tonight but he will not likely be close to 100% given the high angle sprain he is dealing with. The Spartans closed out last season playing 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Michigan State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Kentucky is led by sophomore Ashton Hagans who was the co-Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC last year. The Wildcats closed out last season playing 6 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC. Kentucky has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Wildcats closed out last season playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog getting no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: I am comfortable putting some stock in these team trends because they reflect the core personality of the respective head coaches in Tom Izzo and John Calipari. Lastly, because the Spartans out-rebounded their opponents by +8.8 RPG last season, the Under is also supported by an empirical angle that has been 86% effective over the last five seasons. In games played on a neutral court in the first ten games of the season with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, when one team out-rebounded their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG last season and has two starters back from that team, these games then finished Under the Total in 24 of these last 28 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Champions Classic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (689) and the Kentucky Wildcats (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-19 |
Clippers v. Warriors OVER 226.5 |
|
141-122 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (531) and the Golden State Warriors (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) looks to build off their 112-102 upset win against the Lakers on Tuesday as a 3.5-point underdog. Golden State (0-0) makes its debut to the 2019 regular season tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors will be playing their first regular-season game in their new Chase Center home arena tonight. First and foremost, I am interested in how quickly the Golden State players got comfortable in this environment. Golden State made 123 of their 277 shot attempts in their three preseason games at home for a 44.4% shooting percentage. The Warriors have also made 48 of their 125 shots from behind the arc in their new building for a 38.4% shooting percentage. Those numbers contrast Golden State’s 49.1% overall field goal percentage last season which included them making 38.5% from the 3-point line — so while the overall shooting is down, the 3-point shooting did not level off even without the departed Kevin Durant and the injured Klay Thompson. Frankly, Golden State struggled in their first preseason game of the year which was also at home against the Lakers where they made just 35 of their 89 shot attempts while making only 11 of their 42 shots from behind the arc. In their final two games at home on October 10th and October 18th, the Warriors shot a combined 46.8% from the field while nailing 43.5% of their 3-pointers. How did Stephen Curry fare in these games? Curry averaged 30 PPG in his three preseason games at home while making 56% of his shots from the field and 13 of his 29 shots from behind the arc for a 44.8% shooting mark from 3-point land. And after struggling with a 5 for 11 opening night in his new building where he made just 1 of 5 shots from downtown, Curry then averaged 36 PPG while making 23 of his 39 shots for a 59.0% shooting percentage while nailing 50% of his 24 shots from behind the arc. I think these Warriors are going to play as fast as ever with their young roster while launching even more 3s. Their defense also takes a big hit with both Durant and Thompson no longer defending one of the opponent’s top three players (depending on how Kerr wanted to deploy Draymond Green). Additionally, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest with their last preseason game being last Friday. The Warriors have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Los Angeles added Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to their playoff roster from last season — and while George is out with a shoulder injury, the core of last year’s group remains this season with the obvious upgrade with Leonard (for this game, at least, with George unavailable). I am comfortable looking at the Clippers team trends from last year where they played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a win over a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset win over a divisional rival. Los Angeles has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 29 of their last 42 games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total from last year’s playoffs. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (531) and the Golden State Warriors (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-19 |
Wolves v. Nets UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
127-126 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) and the Brooklyn Nets (576). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) comes off a 36-46 campaign last year which was 11th best in the Western Conference. Brooklyn (0-0) made the playoffs last season with a 42-40 before losing the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs to Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves needed to improve their defense after allowing 112.9 PPG last season. Getting forward Robert Covington back for an entire season will certainly help their interior defensive. The defensive stalwart came over in last year’s blockbuster Jimmy Butler deal but he missed 42 games last season with injuries. Minnesota also added an outstanding defensive player in guard Jarrett Culver with the sixth pick in the NBA draft after he was a key defensive cog for the stingy Texas Tech teams over the last two years. The T-Wolves are led by Karl-Anthony Towns who averaged 24.4 PPG but they need Andrew Wiggins or someone else to step up to be a reliable second scoring option. Minnesota closed out last season with 6 straight Unders when playing on the road. The Timberwolves have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the Atlantic Division. Brooklyn significantly upgraded their roster in the offseason with the additions of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving but they will have to wait until the 2020-21 season before seeing Durant make his debut given his torn ACL in the NBA Finals last June. The Nets did lose some scoring punch with the loss of DeAngelo Russell who joined Golden State in the offseason. Brooklyn also added an outstanding rim protector in center DeAndre Jordan. The Nets concluded their preseason schedule last Friday against Toronto — and they played 5 of their last 7 regular season games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Brooklyn has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home. And in their last 5 games played in the Barclays Center between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: I am willing to upgrade this play to a 25* ranking because the team trends that remain relevant from last season are supported by an empirical situational angle specific to the opening games of the NBA regular season. In games between non-conference opponents who ended last season with a 40 to 49% winning percentage, these games finished Under the Total in 55 of these last 77 situations. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) and the Brooklyn Nets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-19 |
Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5 |
|
114-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (531) and the Golden State Warriors (532). THE SITUATION: Golden State (71-32) stayed alive on Monday in Game Five of the NBA Finals by pulling off a 106-105 win over the Raptors. The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center for one final game before they move to their new arena next season. Toronto (73-32) hopes to close out this series and hoist the NBA Championship trophy in this game.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors extended this series to six games in large measure to the contributions of Kevin Durant who nailed all three of his 3-pointers en route to 11 points in the 12 minutes he played before suffering his Achilles’ injury that will keep him out well into next season. Golden State scored 34 points in the first quarter on Monday — and their 46.3% shooting percentage overall for that game was tied for the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Warriors managed only 72 points in the remaining three quarters without Durant including just 44 points in the second half. Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Warriors have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. This Golden State team is making only 44.0% of their shots over their last five games which has resulted in just 105.0 PPG. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 9 of their last 11 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Toronto has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close the series out. The Raptors have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. The 46.3% shooting they allowed the Warriors to make was tied for the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in nine games. Defense has been the calling card for this team this postseason as their playoff opponents are making just 42.2% of their shots. But shooting has become an issue for this team as they followed up their 41.9% shooting percentage in Game Four of this series by making just 44.7% of their shots on Monday. The Raptors made only 8 of their 32 shots (25%) from behind the arc. Now this team goes back on the road where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games. Toronto is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in the playoffs — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 9 games when playing with two days of rest, the Raptors have played 7 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto scored 27 points in the fourth quarter on Monday — but their half-court offense stalled in the waning moments of that game as they blew their late lead. Nerves seemed to play a role in this failed execution — and that will remain an issue in Game Six. The Raptors are still taking too much time to execute their half-court offense which is leaving them reliant on poor shots. Expect another low-scoring game. 10* NBA Toronto-Golden State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (531) and the Golden State Warriors (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-105 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). THE SITUATION: Toronto (73-31) took a commanding 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Friday with their 105-92 upset victory over the Warriors. The Raptors host Game Five as they look to lift the NBA championship trophy with Golden State (70-32) looking to extend this series to a sixth game back home in the Oracle Center.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And while Toronto has covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Raptors have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Toronto’s outstanding defense has been their calling card this postseason. They have held their playoff opponents to just 42.0% shooting from the field — and they have limited their last five opponents to just 42.8% shooting. The Raptors won Game Four despite making just 41.9% of their shots from the field in a shooting effort that I expected to see from them in Game Three where instead they shot a surprising 52.4% from the field. Now with the opportunity to close out this series and win the championship on their home court, I expect this Toronto team to be a bit nervy with their shooting. The Raptors have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in playoff games where they have the opportunity to close out the series. Golden State has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing elimination in the playoffs. The Warriors should play tough on the defensive end of the court with their season on the line. This is a team that usually plays better on defense when on the road — they have held their home hosts to just 43.8% shooting this season which is a few notches below the 44.4% opponent’s field goal percentage for the year overall. Golden State has seen the Under go 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Warriors suffered upset losses in their last two games at home as a favorite in this series, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two in a row— and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upsets in a row. The team may decide to play Kevin Durant with it being an elimination game. While they certainly need his offensive skills after making only 44.2% of their shots over their last five games, it remains a question how effective he will be if not at 100% and rusty from all the time he has been away from the court. And don’t underestimate Durant’s importance on the defensive end of the court as he offers the Warriors a big body to potentially slow down Kawhi Leonard. If Durant plays, the Golden State offense tends to slow down in pace as well with him looking to generate one-on-one scoring chances. The other big update for this Warriors team was the surprise return of Kevon Looney who had previously been declared out for the remainder of this playoff series by the team. One of the reasons we had the Over in Game Four was that Looney’s absence likely ensured more playing time for Boogie Cousins who is helpful on offense but a liability on defense. Looney’s ability to take the court helps the Golden State defense while limiting their offensive capabilities in lieu of Cousins. Regardless of whether or not Durant plays, this Warriors team has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as a road dog getting no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from two straight upset losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-19 |
Raptors v. Warriors OVER 214.5 |
|
105-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (527) and the Golden State Warriors (528). THE SITUATION: Toronto (72-31) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 123-109 upset win in Golden State as a 2.5-point underdog. The Warriors (70-31) host Game Four of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. Toronto has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. The Raptors held the Warriors to just 39.6% shooting which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Toronto has held their last five opponents to just 42.9% shooting — but they have then played 25 of their last 39 games Over the Total after not allowing their last five opponents to shoot better than an aggregate 42% from the field. The Raptors have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Golden State has seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Warriors will put Klay Thompson back on the court after he did not play on Wednesday with his hamstring injury. Thompson’s think he could have played in that game — so the extra two days of rest should help be in pretty good shape tonight. Golden State clearly needs him on the court as they shot just 39.6% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage for them all season. Having a second credible shooter on the court will open up the Warriors offense. They assisted on just 69.4% of their field goals on Wednesday which was the lowest of the series as the team was too dependent on Stephen Curry shooting the basketball. The injury to Kevon Looney means that head coach Steve Kerr will need to continue to rely on DeMarcus Cousins to play significant minutes. While Cousins is a force on the offensive end of the court, he is a defensive liability that was demonstrated once again on Wednesday. Golden State has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Warriors have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when favored by no more than 6 points. Golden State has also played 9 of their last 11 games in the NBA Finals Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing in the Oracle Center. Golden State has scored exactly 109 points in each of the first three games of this series. Expect another higher scoring game between these two teams tonight. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (527) and the Golden State Warriors (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-19 |
Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
123-109 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). THE SITUATION: Golden State (70-30) evened this series at 1-1 on Sunday with their 109-104 upset win at Toronto (71-31). The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State vastly improved their efficiency in their half-court offense after scoring just 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the half court in Game One of this series. The Warriors improved that mark to a 1.068 PPP rate in the half court in Game Two which was the most efficient mark that the Raptors have allowed in these playoffs. Regression is likely for this Golden State team — especially with all the injuries they are dealing with tonight. Klay Thompson claims that he will play tonight — but head coach Steve Kerr will not play him if he is experiencing pain with the pulled hamstring he suffered on Sunday. While Thompson’s ability to launch jump shots should not be affected by this injury, his movement will be — so he may have difficulty getting open if and when he does play tonight. Kevin Durant is still not ready to play in this series — and the Warriors lost Kevon Looney to a season-ending cartilage fracture injury on Sunday. DeMarcus Cousins played surprisingly well in Game Two but he is still not at 100% as he recovers from his torn quad — and he is still working back into game shape after missing over a month of play. Even Andre Iguodala is not at 100% as he is dealing with a sprained calf of his own. Golden State’s most reliable offensive threat remains Stephen Curry — but when the Raptors deployed the gimmick box-and-one defense in the late moments of the fourth quarter, the Warriors’ offense stalled to a near halt. While the Warriors will adjust to that gimmick defense, the reason why it worked is that Golden State simply lacks reliable scoring threats with all these injuries they have endured. Bettors who had the closing over/under number of 212.5 still cashed their Over tickets that looked like locks midway through the final quarter even with the ugly scoring drought suffered by both teams — and the Warriors have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory. Now the Warriors finally return to the Oracle Center for the first time since May 16th after playing their last four games on the road. Golden State has played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last four games on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 13 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Toronto should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Warriors to make 46.3% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Raptors have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Toronto has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Raptors also experienced problems on the offensive end of the court with them shooting just 37.2% of their shots from the field. Kawhi Leonard has seen his offensive productivity steadily decline as the postseason moves on. Leonard has been nursing a leg injury of his own and he seems to be tiring. He only had seven isolation plays on offense with a mere four post-up plays with his energy appearing to be limited. Now Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in five of shier last six games — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Raptors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Expect a lower scoring game tonight. 25* NBA Wednesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors OVER 212.5 |
Top |
109-104 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Toronto Raptors (524). THE SITUATION: Toronto (71-30) won the opening game of this series on Thursday with their 118-109 victory as a 2-point favorite. The Raptors have now won and covered the point spread in five straight games. Golden State (69-30) had their six-game winning streak snapped in that game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors shot just 43.6% from the field on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-seven games. Golden State has seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games on the road — and the Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, Golden State has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Moving forward, the Warriors have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second game of a playoff series. Golden State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the NBA Finals. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 second games of a playoff series Over the Total. The Raptors have also played 21 of their last 32 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 31 of their last 47 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 25 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the game finished Over the Total 17 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 contests Over the Total — and they have also played five straight games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Toronto Raptors (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213.5 |
Top |
109-118 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
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At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). THE SITUATION: Golden State (69-29) has won six straight games after they completed their four-game sweep over Portland by defeating them on the road by a 119-117 score as a 2.5-point favorite back on May 20th. Toronto (70-30) has won four straight games after rallying from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Milwaukee by a 4-2 margin with their 100-94 victory as a 1.5-point road favorite last Saturday. The Raptors host the opening two games of this series. Kevin Durant has been ruled out for this game — but the news I have been waiting for was the confirmation by the Warriors that DeMarcus Cousins will be considered active for tonight’s opening game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the big break before the start of the NBA Finals, looking at team trends is helpful to assess how these two teams will respond to the extended time off. Golden State has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total when playing with at least three of rest. Toronto has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest between contest. Additionally, the Raptors have played 20 of their last 31 home games Over the Total after a straight-up victory. Toronto has covered the point spread in their last four games — and not only have they played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests but they have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They held the Bucks to just 40% shooting on Saturday which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games as their defensive wall against Giannis Antetokounmpo further frustrated that Milwaukee offense. But they will have to hope the chalkboard clean regarding their defensive schemes against this potent Warriors attack. The Raptors face a dilemma on defense as they want to have Danny Green get significant minutes to take advantage of his size in defending Stephen Curry who will torch smaller defenders like Kyle Lowry or Fred VanVleet — but Green is slow in switching off pick-and-rolls and he cannot be a liability with his outside shooting. Green has a great pedigree of nailing 3s in the NBA Finals given his time with San Antonio — but his cold shooting continues, he will have to be benched for VanVleet who has been on fire with his 3-point shooting but is a defensive liability. Furthermore, Toronto has played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range which includes them playing five of their last seven games at home Over the Total in that point spread range. Golden State plays at a quicker pace without Durant on the court as they can replace quick ball movement with his one-on-one isolation skills that does drain time off the shot-clock. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 road games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least 115 points. Golden State shot just 46.5% from the field in their last game against the Blazers which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. The Warriors have not been as sharp on defense as teams of the past in this postseason as they are allowing the 9th most Points-Per-Possession in these playoffs. They certainly miss Durant’s defensive capabilities — and he would have been the primary ball defender on Kawhi Leonard. Moving forward, Golden State stays on the road for the third straight game where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 5 contests. The Warriors have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Additionally, Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games in the NBA Finals Over the Total. And with Cousins likely to play tonight, that puts the icing on the cake for this Over play (and the 25* rating) since the big man fills a hole on offense with his post-up and shooting skills while representing a liability on the defensive end of the court.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the Raptors pulling the upset in the last meeting back on December 12th where they won by a 113-93 score on the road as an 8-point underdog. The Warriors have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total including four straight Overs when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-25-19 |
Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213 |
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94-100 |
Win
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100 |
16 h 32 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (511) and the Toronto Raptors (512). THE SITUATION: Toronto (69-30) seized a 3-2 in this series on Thursday with their 105-99 upset victory in Milwaukee as a 7.5-point underdog. The Bucks (70-26) has lost three straight games and look to avoid elimination in the playoffs tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a win at home — and the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up victory. Toronto has also played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. The Raptors success in this series has come from their efforts on the defensive end of the court. In the playoffs, Toronto has held its opponents to just 41.7% shooting from the field. The Raptors have completely stymied the Bucks in their half-court offense since the third game of this series when head coach Nick Nurse moved Kawhi Leonard to be the primary defender against Giannis Antetokoumpo. The Greek Freak has made only 11 of his 31 attempted shots (35.5%) in the 131 possessions in this series where he has been defended by Leonard while dishing only 4 assists and committing 5 turnovers while attempting only three free throws in those possessions. In Game Five, Milwaukee scored at just a 0.63 Points-Per-Possession in the half court. But Toronto is making only 40.5% of their shots themselves over the first five games of this series. Moving forward, the Raptors have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Toronto has also played 10 of their last 16 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. Milwaukee has played 14 of the 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, the Bucks have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 27 of their last 42 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Milwaukee has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total when looking to avenge two straight losses to their opponent. Milwaukee has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with at least triple revenge. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (511) and the Toronto Raptors (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-23-19 |
Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 |
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105-99 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). THE SITUATION: Toronto (68-30) evened this series at 2-2 on Tuesday with their 120-102 upset victory over Milwaukee (70-25) as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks return home to host the fifth game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Head coach Nick Nurse has found success over the last two games defending Giannis Antetokounmpo by moving Pascal Siakam over to defend Eric Bledsoe with Kawhi Leonard taking over the primary ball-handling responsibilities against the Greek Freak. Toronto is also matching up with Antetokounmpo higher up on the key while aggressively double-teaming him when he begins to attack the basket. These strategies have worked in the last two games of this series as Antetokounmpo has made only 14 of his 33 shots (42.4%) while committing 12 turnovers over that span. The Raptors are holding their playoff opponents to just 41.5% shooting from the field. But the increased expectations on Leonard in defending Giannis may be negatively impacting his efforts on the offensive end of the court. Leonard scored only 19 points on Tuesday as he looks both fatigued and limited with what appears to be a painful left leg injury. Leonard finally got some help in Game Four with Kyle Lowry leading the team with 25 points and Norman Powell scoring 18 points while leading the team with 18 shot attempts. Toronto made 47.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Raptors enjoyed an effective field goal percentage of 61.3% with their 40 uncontested shots from behind the arc in Games Three and Four of this series on their home court. Coincidentally, Toronto also launched 40 uncontested 3-pointers in Games One and Two of this series in Milwaukee but they enjoyed only a 47.5% eFG on those shots in the hostile environment. The Raptors are making only 40.7% of their shots over their last five games — and they made only 71 of their 179 shots (40%) in Games One and Two of this series on the road. The Under is 7-2-1 in Toronto’s last 10 road games — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. And while the Bucks have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses. The Bucks need to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Raptors to make 47.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight games. Milwaukee has still held their last five opponents to just a 39.3% shooting percentage. Returning home should help as the Bucks limit their guests to only 42.7% shooting on the season. But Milwaukee is making only 42.7% of their shots over their last five games with an offense that is stale and too often stalling when in their half-court sets.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when it was the fifth game in a playoff series. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs when the series was tied. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-21-19 |
Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 217.5 |
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102-120 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Toronto Raptors (504). THE SITUATION: Toronto (67-30) made this is a 2-1 series on Sunday with their 118-112 victory over Milwaukee (70-24) in double-overtime as a 2.5-point favorite. The Raptors host the fourth game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Toronto has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Raptors pulled out Game Three of this series despite making only 40% of their shots inside the arc which was the fifth lowest shooting effort for their 2-point shots in their 97 games this season. Toronto made 17 of their 45 shots (37.8%) of their 3-pointers to stay competitive in that game. Yet that was only the fourth time in these playoffs that a team made at least 36% of their shots from behind the arc against the Bucks. The Raptors have made only 39.9% of their shots over their last five games. In this postseason, Toronto is scoring at just a 0.99 Points-Per-Possession rate which is -5.0 PPP below the woeful Knicks who had the least efficient offense in the NBA in the regular season. Going deeper, if it seemed like the Raptors blew a bunch of layups on Sunday, it is because they did: Toronto is converting a mere 43% of their layup attempts coming from their half-court offense in this series. But the Raptors are hanging their hat on their defensive efforts as they have held their playoff opponents to just 41.2% shooting. Additionally, Toronto has limited the Bucks to scoring only 80 Points per 100 Possessions in the half court in the first three games of this series. The Raptors have been beaten on the boards by at least -6.0 Rebounds Per Game in each of the three games in this series — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after getting being out-rebounded by at least 5 boards in three straight games. Toronto has also played 10 of their last 15 fourth games of a playoff series Under the Total. Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while the Bucks had won and covered the point spread in their previous six games before suffering their loss on Sunday, they have then played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. Milwaukee has also played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. The Bucks are struggling to execute their offense as well in this series — they have made only 42.4% of their shots over their last five games while converting only 29.5% of their shots from behind the arc in this series. Milwaukee has also made only 52% of their layup attempts from their half-court offense in this series. The move by Toronto head coach Nick Nurse to have Kawhi Leonard handle the one-and-one defensive assignment against Giannis Antetokounmpo paid dividends in Game Three with the Greek Freak missing 11 of his 16 shots attempts en route to just 12 points. But the Bucks are playing outstanding defense as well as they have limited their last five opponents to just 37.5% shooting from the field. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: While Game Three (fortunately) finished Over the Total, it needed the two overtime periods to get there after that game concluded regulation time knotted at 96 points apiece. Expect another lower scoring game that will not need overtime to resolve. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Toronto Raptors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-20-19 |
Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 219 |
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119-117 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (501) and the Portland Trail Blazers (502). THE SITUATION: Golden State (68-29) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 110-99 upset win in Portland (61-36) as a 2.5-point favorite. The Trail Blazers host Game Four as they hope to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 4 straight games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. Golden State has now covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and, not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread win, but they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, the Under is 16-7-1 in the Warriors’ last 24 games when playing with one day of rest. Golden State will likely be without Andre Iguodala tonight who is listed as questionable with a right calf injury while being declared as “unlikely” to play. While Iguodala is ball hawk on defense, the Warriors’ will likely miss his contributions on offense even more tonight. He will likely be replaced in the starting lineup with Alfonzie McKinney who is a good defensive player but not nearly as effective on the offensive end of the court. Golden State has been installed as the favorite for this game — and they have played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total as a road favorite of 6 points or less. The Warriors have also played 7 of their last 8 games in the Western Conference Finals Under the Total. Portland has blown halftime leads of 13 points in each of the last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after leading at halftime by double-digits in two straight games. The Blazers have to play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Warriors to score at least 110 points in their third straight game. An adjustment head coach Rick Stotts made on Saturday was to start Meyers Leonard for Enes Kanter and only insert Kanter on the court when Steph Curry gets a rest. Curry has simply burned the Blazers on pick-and-rolls with Kanter has been on the floor as he is a significant defensive liability. Leonard is a better defensive player — but he does not offer nearly the same offensive skills as Kanter. Scotts moved away from this approach in the second half in Game Three — expect him to stay committed to this tactic in Game Four which will contribute to a lower scoring game on both ends of the court. Portland has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. But the Blazers are also struggling to score points — especially in the second half. Damian Lillard is shooting only 32% in this series — and he has made only fifteen baskets in the first three games of this series. Lillard may be slowed down by the rib injury he suffered in the middle of Game Two. Or, he simply may be getting tired with his teammates. The Trail Blazers have not had more than the standard one day off since May 12th — and they enjoyed more than one day off between games just once since April 29th. That seven-game series with Denver which included four games in the high altitude of the Mile High air may have really taken a toll as well. Portland has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with a 44.2% field goal percentage in Game Two of this series being their best shooting mark over that span.
FINAl TAKE: The Trail Blazers have played 38 of their last 62 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Portland has also played 12 of their last 20 fourth games of a playoff series Under the Total. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (501) and the Portland Trail Blazers (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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