Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins UNDER 48 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Atlanta and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total here considering both of these defenses come in playing relatively well. The Falcons are loaded with weapons on offense but they will face a tough test here as the Redskins are arguably playing their best defensive football of the season right now. That has had something to do with the schedule they’ve faced, although their current three-game winning streak did begin with a stellar defensive performance in a 23-17 win over the Panthers. Since getting torched by the Saints in New Orleans on Drew Brees’ record-setting night back on October 8th, they’ve really tightened things up. Getting the Falcons outdoors, away from the ideal conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is a key for Washington. On the other side of the football, the Falcons defense has played better the last couple of games and now comes off the bye week. Atlanta welcomed Grady Jarrett back last time out, and his presence will be key against the Redskins run-first offensive attack. With RB Chris Thompson banged-up, the ‘Skins aren’t able to fully employ their preferred short passing game, which would ordinarily be a massive advantage against a Falcons defense that is willing to concede passes to running backs. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-18 | Georgia -7.5 v. Kentucky | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Kentucky at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams check in with identical 7-1 records and little separates them in the national rankings. With that being said, I believe Georgia is the clearly superior squad and will be able to put some distance between itself and Kentucky on Saturday afternoon in Lexington. The Bulldogs bounced back nicely from an ugly loss at LSU, delivering a 36-17 rout of Florida last week in Jacksonville. Remember, prior to that loss at LSU, the Dawgs had taken care of business on the road, winning by 24 points at South Carolina and 14 points at Missouri. Kentucky has been getting by on the strength of its defense, especially over the last couple of weeks as it has posted 14-7 and 15-14 wins over Vandy and Missouri, respectively. Save for a 27-16 win at Florida back on September 8th, I haven’t been all that impressed by the Wildcats body of work this season. They check in undefeated at home, but consider the level of competition they’ve faced, having hosted Central Michigan, Murray State, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Even if they lose this game, they still have the potential to run the table from here with games against Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State and Louisville. Take Georgia (10*). |
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11-03-18 | Georgia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 64 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAF ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Georgia Tech and North Carolina at 12:15 pm et on Saturday. Georgia Tech has certainly been involved in its share of wild, high-scoring affairs this season but I don’t believe this one sets up as another shootout between these two familiar opponents. Note that last year’s meeting went 33-7 in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Last week things got carried away early against Virginia Tech but we did see the Jackets settle down and play some good defensive football from the second quarter on. After giving up two early first quarter touchdowns, Georgia Tech held the Hokies to just one touchdown from five minutes remaining in the first quarter until less than four minutes left in the fourth. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in North Carolina’s 31-21 loss at Virginia last Saturday, but only by a couple of points. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Tar Heels return home. Note that their last home game resulted in a 22-19 loss to Virginia Tech back on October 13th. On the heels of four straight losses they know they’ll need to tighten things up against the Jackets explosive ground attack. Keep in mind, just two games back, Georgia Tech was held to only 14 points at home against Duke. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-18 | Louisville v. Clemson UNDER 62 | 16-77 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Louisville and Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday. We’ve seen Clemson really run up the score on the road this season but it’s been a bit of a different story here at home, where the Tigers have done an excellent job of ‘managing’ games, still winning by margin, but perhaps not going full throttle on offense for four quarters. Their home scores to date are as follows: 48-7, 38-7, 27-23 and 41-7. Meanwhile, in four road games they’ve put up 28, 49, 63 and 59 points. Louisville has reason to show up here after getting flat out embarrassed in a 56-35 home loss to Wake Forest last time out. The Cardinals followed that up with their bye week. Note that they were similarly embarrassed in a 66-31 home loss to Georgia Tech on October 5th and followed that up with a more respectable showing in a 38-20 road loss at Boston College. I don’t believe this will be a competitive football game, and that lends itself to an ‘under’ result with the total sitting in the high-60s. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-18 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -3.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Texas A&M at 12 noon et on Saturday. I think a lot of bettors got spooked in early October as Auburn dropped back-to-back games at Mississippi State and at home against Tennessee. We did see the Tigers bounce back last time out, going on the road to defeat Ole Miss 31-16, which took them into their bye week. This is actually a fairly critical spot for Auburn as it will travel to face Georgia and Alabama in two of its final three regular season games – winning either of those would be a tall task to be sure. While there is a home game against Liberty to gain Bowl eligibility even if the Tigers drop this one to the Aggies, that’s not really a path they want to take. On the flip side, 20th-ranked Texas A&M gets a couple of winnable games at home against Ole Miss and UAB next. In fact, the Aggies won’t play another true road game this season, wrapping things up at home against LSU on November 24th. The Aggies will be trying to avoid suffering consecutive losses for the first time this season on Saturday but this is a difficult spot in enemy territory. Note that last week we didn’t see the Aggies score a touchdown until the final minute of the first half against Mississippi State. Two games back it wasn’t until four minutes left in the first half until they reached the end zone at South Carolina. I simply feel the Aggies are going to have a difficult time breaking through against the Tigers and expect Auburn to make enough plays down the stretch to secure a win and cover. Take Auburn (10*). |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia OVER 48 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Virginia at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ (barely) in Virginia’s 31-21 win over North Carolina last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Cavaliers stay home to host Pittsburgh. Virginia has been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games lately and that goes hand-in-hand with its current three-game winning streak. Opponents simply haven’t been able to stay focused on running the football against the Cavaliers lately, largely due to game flow, ie falling behind on the scoreboard early. Here, I do believe we’ll see Pitt’s ground game find some success against the Cavaliers defense. The Panthers have sandwiched two wild, high-scoring games against Syracuse and Duke around a defensive slugfest against Notre Dame. We actually won with the ‘over’ in the game against Syracuse and the ‘under’ against Notre Dame. Save for that strong defensive showing against the Irish, the Panthers defense hasn’t held up well at all this season. This certainly isn’t a favorable spot, traveling on a short week after spending a lot of time on the field against Duke last Saturday. The Cavaliers have essentially been as good as they’ve needed to be on offense lately, and here I believe they’re going to have to generate their share of touchdown drives in order to outlast the Panthers. Note that QB Bryce Perkins has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of eight games this season and tossed three on only 27 pass attempts in last week’s win over North Carolina. Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | 3-34 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland plus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Raiders in a game they should win outright. There aren't a lot of redeeming qualities when it comes to either of these teams. This truly is an ugly Thursday night matchup. With that being said, I do feel that the Raiders offer some considerable value in this spot. Most have written off Jon Gruden's Raiders as a laughingstock at this point, and perhaps rightfully so. But Oakland does have some upside this week. With RB Marshawn Lynch sidelined due to injury and WR Amari Cooper having been dealt to Dallas, we saw the Raiders turn in one of their best offensive performances of the season last Sunday against Indianapolis, albeit in a losing effort. Lynch's absence makes way for veteran RB Doug Martin, who gained over five yards per rush last Sunday, while WRs Brandon LaFell and Seth Roberts both reached the end zone. That was not a favorable matchup against the Colts, but this is, as the 49ers check in dealing with a number of key injuries, particularly on the defensive side of the football. I am confident we'll see 49ers QB C.J. Beathard start this game but he's not close to 100% healthy and it seems now that opponents have some film on him, they've had little trouble keeping him in check. Over the last two games, the Niners have scored a grand total of just 25 points. RB Matt Breida played last week but didn't look healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain and averaged just 2.6 yards per rush against the Cardinals. Ordinarily this would be a smash spot for the 49ers offense as the Raiders defense leaves a lot to be desired, but right now, I don't believe San Francisco is healthy enough to take full advantage. Take Oakland (10*). |
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11-01-18 | Temple v. Central Florida UNDER 61 | Top | 40-52 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Temple and UCF at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up in Orlando on Thursday night. We’ve already cashed a couple of ‘under’ tickets in games involving Temple this season and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in this spot. Temple is coming off three straight victories and a bye week. In those three wins, the Owls allowed a grand total of just 40 points. Prior to that we had seen positive glimpses from their defense in dominating wins over Maryland and Tulsa, but there was also an ugly 45-35 loss at Boston College in the mix, not to mention a 36-29 setback at home against Buffalo in their second game of the season. The Knights will arguably offer the toughest challenge the Temple defense has faced so far this year. UCF has scored over 30 points in all seven games this season. With that being said, the only opponents the Knights have gotten into the 40’s or higher against were Florida Atlantic, Pitt and SMU. I would certainly rate the Temple defense higher than all three of those squads. Last time out, we saw UCF get held out of the end zone until nearly midway through the second quarter, and after adding another touchdown four minutes later, the Knights didn’t reach the end zone on offense again until six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. That was against East Carolina. Defensively, the Knights have been dominant for the most part, save for a couple of shootouts against Florida Atlantic and Memphis. It’s worth noting that UCF actually shut out Memphis from two minutes left in the first half on in a wild 31-30 come-from-behind victory, on the road no less, back on October 13th. To put it simply, the Knights can handle the Owls offense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo UNDER 51.5 | 42-51 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Buffalo at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Playing the 'under' in these early week college matchups used to be almost automatic but that hasn't really been the case in recent years. With that being said, I do like the way the spot sets up for a relatively low-scoring affair between Miami-Ohio and Buffalo on Tuesday night. For the Redhawks, it's getting late awfully early as they have just three wins to their credit with only four games remaining. In other words, they need to win at least three out of four in order to gain Bowl eligibility. They can ill afford to get involved in a shootout with the Bulls here, as their own defense simply hasn't proven it can slow opposing passing games this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo entered the campaign with high hopes and has lived up to expectations, going 7-1 SU. The Bulls have given up at least 28 points on three different occasions this season, but all three of those games were back in September. During their current three-game winning streak, the Bulls have allowed a grand total of just 47 points. Buffalo will face a stiffer challenge from the Redhawks offense than it did a year ago as Miami-Ohio has senior QB Gus Ragland under center. With a lot on the line for both teams, I tend to think we'll see a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 45 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Orchard Park on Monday night. The Patriots have been involved in back-to-back wild, high-scoring affairs but I don't believe they'll need nearly as much offense to secure a fifth straight win on Monday. It's certainly worth noting that the Pats have scored at least 38 points in four straight games heading into this one. While the Bills aren't thought of as much, the fact is they do possess a pretty solid defense, despite being on the field an awful lot this season. Their weakness is against the run but I'm not sure the Patriots have the ground game to take full advantage - especially with RB Sony Michel likely sidelined for this one. While New England is known for its offense, the Pats defense has come up big when called upon as well. You have to think the Bills will take a conservative approach with veteran Derek Anderson under center. That actually plays into the hands of a Pats defense that is hungry after giving up a ton of points in the last two weeks, albeit against two good offensive teams in the Chiefs and Bears. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pats last three games. We haven't seen four straight 'over' results involving New England since the first four games last season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Packers +9 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Packers. Green Bay is coming off its bye week and the week off should only serve to further improve the health of QB Aaron Rodgers, who has certainly looked good in his last two games. The Rams caught the 49ers in a flat spot last Sunday afternoon but won't be so fortunate against a Green Bay squad that continues to try to make up ground following a relatively poor start to the season. Los Angeles' defense simply hasn't been as good as advertised this season and while the Packers continue to deal with some injuries at the wide receiver position, their young depth has really stepped up lately and should continue to do so here. This is a particularly favorable matchup for WR Davante Adams and TE Jimmy Graham. Both should come up big and help keep the Packers in this game from start to finish. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It seems that most are quick to downgrade the Raiders offense after dealing away WR Amari Cooper. The fact is, Coopers has underachieved in a big way this season and I actually feel his departure may serve to give this offense a bit of a jumpstart. This is certainly a 'get right' matchup against a weak and undermanned Colts defense. On the flip side, the Colts continue to bomb away with no running game to speak of. I certainly anticipate Andrew Luck having a field day against a very weak Raiders pass defense and non-existent pass rush. We're dealing with a high total for a reason in this one, yet most bettors aren't expecting much from either offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears -7.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an excellent ‘get right’ matchup for the Bears following last week’s sloppy performance at home against the Patriots. It’s one thing to struggle to keep up in a shootout with the Patriots but another matter entirely to stumble against the Jets. I don’t envision the Bears falling into that trap here. New York is hitting the road for the first time since dropping a 31-12 loss at Jacksonville back on September 30th. Since then, the Jets have won two of their last three games but that had more to do with favorable matchups than anything else. Not surprisingly, we saw New York get crushed 37-17 in a tough matchup at home against the Vikings last week. The Jets are currently dealing with a cluster of injuries in their secondary and now face a Bears offense that while inconsistent, can certainly bomb away when a favorable matchup presents itself. Perhaps ‘bomb away’ is the wrong term as QB Mitchell Trubisky seems to fare better in the short passing game. With that being said, Chicago has a wealth of offensive weapons and they should be on full display on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. I don’t believe the Jets will be able to keep within arm’s reach for four quarters. Take Chicago (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has blowout written all over it as far as I’m concerned. While the Steelers cruise into this home date off their bye week, the Browns are fresh off an overtime loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday. There were concerns all over the place for Cleveland last week. Its offense couldn’t sustain many drives against a hapless Bucs defense while the defense simply couldn’t come up with big plays when it needed to. Now the Browns stay on the road and face what will be a highly-motivated Steelers squad after Pittsburgh dominated most of the way but ultimately had to settle for a tie in Cleveland back in Week 1. We’ve seen glimpses of the Steelers offensive potential this season but I look for it all to come together in this matchup. This is a prime matchup for RB James Conner in particular, who continues to prove his worth starting in place of holdout Le’Veon Bell. There’s really no need to over-analyze this one – it’s a true statement spot for the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the highest totals on this week's NFL board but it's warranted in my opinion. Both teams are dealing with cluster injuries on the defensive side of the football. The Bucs were already without Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry and will now have to go on without Kwon Alexander as well. Meanwhile, the Bucs are missing a number of key cogs, with Vontaze Burfict the latest to go down. Both offenses are poised to take full advantage on Sunday afternoon. We saw 'under' results from both teams last Sunday but that's of little consequence here. The Bucs were able to march the football up and down the field against a better Cleveland defense than the one they'll face here. The Bengals couldn't get out of an early hole against the Chiefs, which completely changed their offensive gameplan. They should be more comfortable back at home against arguably the league's worst defense in the Bucs. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Jacksonville at 9:30 am et on Sunday. These two teams enter this London matchup with identical 3-4 records but I feel that the Eagles are in a far better place right now and in good position to win this one going away. The Jaguars are reeling. There are questions whether QB Blake Bortles is really the right guy to lead the offense while the defense hasn’t come close to living up to expectations in recent weeks. Was last season a fluke? I’m not ready to make that judgement just yet, but I do feel the Jags find themselves in a really difficult spot traveling across the pond to face the defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a truly disappointing fall-from-ahead loss against the Panthers, at home no less. With that being said, QB Carson Wentz is coming off a spectacular performance and we should see some carry-over from that effort here. Since getting WR Alshon Jeffery back the Eagles offense has had a more dynamic look and I believe they’ll give Jacksonville plenty of problems on Sunday. Defensively, the Eagles are down a couple of key cogs but depth is not something they’re lacking on that side of the football. They employ a ‘next man up’ philosophy, much like the Patriots, and draw a favorable matchup in a struggling Jags offense here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | 41-38 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ve been high on Washington State this season but I don’t see this as an ideal spot for the Cougars, heading out on the road following one of the biggest games in program history (one that resulted in a victory no less) against Oregon last week. Stanford bounced back from consecutive losses with a hard-fought road win at Arizona State last week and should be able to build on that performance here. Note that the last time the Cardinal played here at ‘The Farm’ they were blasted 40-21 by Utah. They’ll certainly be looking to make amends for that poor showing here. Washington State is rolling along right now, having posted three straight wins. It is worth noting, however, that the Cougars haven’t really been tested on the road outside of a 39-36 loss at USC back on September 21st. Their other two road games were against Wyoming and Oregon State, two teams that own a combined SU record of 3-12. This line has moved in Washington State’s favor at the time of posting, as folks are quickly jumping on the Cougar bandwagon. I’m not sure the move is warranted. Take Stanford (10*). |
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10-27-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 51 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Virginia at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. This was a low-scoring affair last year as Virginia won by a 20-14 score. I’m anticipating another relatively low-scoring game on Saturday. North Carolina woke from its offensive slumber to get involved in a wild, 40-37 double-overtime loss at Syracuse last week. Keep in mind, that game totaled just 54 points in regulation time. It was also played in ideal conditions inside the Carrier Dome. Prior to that, the Tar Heels had been held to 29 points combined over their last two games. Now they go up against a tough defense in Virginia, as the Cavaliers have allowed only 27 points over their last two games, with those coming in tough matchups against Miami and Duke. Virginia certainly hasn’t gotten off to a 5-2 start on the strength of its offense. Last Saturday against Duke, the Cavaliers scored a couple of touchdowns in the game’s first 16 minutes but then didn’t find the end zone again until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Last week we saw North Carolina hold a potent Syracuse offense out of the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half. The week previous the Tar Heels allowed a touchdown in the game’s first two minutes against Virginia Tech but then not another until over midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-18 | Army v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 48 | 37-22 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Army and Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Army’s overtime win at Miami-Ohio last week, but it’s certainly worth noting that the game did stay under the total in regulation time. Army has now put up a whopping 125 points over its last three contests but that’s had more to do with that overtime result, as well as the level of opposition the Black Knights have faced than anything else. Prior to last week’s game, Army had gone up against Buffalo and San Jose State in its previous two games, not exactly two defensive juggernauts. Here, it will face a tough challenge against one of the nation’s most underrated and overlooked defensive teams, on the road no less. Eastern Michigan has held five straight opponents to 27 points or less, despite facing some tough competition over that stretch. We saw a bit of an offensive explosion from the Eagles last week as they put up 42 points in a rout of Ball State. That’s been the exception rather than the rule, however. Prior to that outburst, Eastern Michigan had scored 28 points or less in six consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-18 | Army v. Eastern Michigan +1 | 37-22 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Eastern Michigan over Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. This game should mean a little more to Eastern Michigan as it continues to push its way toward Bowl eligibility. The Eagles check in at 4-4 on the season and fresh off back-to-back wins. They’ve faced a pretty tough schedule this season so there’s no reason to knock them over the .500 record. Army checks in with five wins already to its credit, including three in a row heading into this contest. I don’t see this as a favorable spot for the Black Knights as they hit the road following last week’s double-overtime thriller against Miami-Ohio. I consider Eastern Michigan to be one of the nation’s most underrated and overlooked teams. The Eagles have already gone on the road and defeated Purdue this season and their four losses have come at Buffalo, San Diego State and Western Michigan and at home against Northern Illinois. There was really no shame in any of those setbacks. Take Eastern Michigan (10*). |
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10-27-18 | Wake Forest v. Louisville UNDER 66.5 | 56-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Wake Forest and Louisville at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at Cardinal Stadium on Saturday afternoon. This lofty total has a lot to do with the fact that Wake Forest has been involved in a number of wild, high-scoring affairs this season while Louisville has gotten into a couple of high-scoring games of its own in recent weeks. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Wake Forest has given up a whopping 101 points in dropping each of its last two games. With that being said, the Demon Deacons draw a favorable matchup here as Louisville has been held to 24 points or less in each of its last four games. Defensively, we saw the Cardinals give up a couple of touchdowns in the first six minutes of the game against Boston College last week but then stiffened up from there, not allowing another touchdown until the third quarter. It was at the very least improvement over their previous game as they were throttled by Georgia Tech, 66-31. On the flip side, we’ve seen Wake Forest’s offense sputter lately, scoring just 20 points combined in its last two games. I’m just not convinced we’re in for a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 58 | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana Tech and Florida Atlantic at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Boca Raton on Friday night. This was a high-scoring matchup last year with FAU prevailing by a 48-23 score on the strength of a big game from RB Devin Singletary. We've seen Singletary continue to rack up touchdowns this season but hasn't been nearly as dominant on the ground, averaging just 4.5 yards per rush after gaining 6.4 ypr last season. Opponents simply aren't respecting the Owls passing game the way they have in recent years, instead stacking the box against FAU's dynamic rusher. Note that Louisiana Tech checks in allowing just 3.8 yards per rush this season. The Owls have allowed a whopping 64 points over their last two games but do find themselves in a favorable bounce-back spot against a Bulldogs squad that has topped out at 31 points against FBS opponents this season. Louisiana Tech has actually put up 31 points in each of its last two games, but those two contests came against UTSA and UTEP, two weaker opponents than the one they'll face on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | 23-42 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Dolphins have surprisingly been involved in back-to-back high-scoring 'over' results, which comes on the heels of consecutive 'under' outcomes. I'm not anticipating a lot of offense in Thursday night's game as Miami will need to lean heavily on its defense to stay competitive with cluster injuries at the wide receiver position on offense. The Texans have done an excellent job of taking away opposing running games this season and should be able to do the same against Miami, forcing QB Brock Osweiler to beat them through the air, something I'm not sure he's capable of with both Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills ruled out due to injuries. The Miami defense is certainly beatable but the Texans haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, having put up 20 points or less in three straight games. They've scored 22 points or less in six of seven games this season. Texans QB DeShaun Watson has been serviceable this season but lacks the mobility we've been accustomed to seeing from him due to a myriad of injuries. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 66 | 14-58 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday. As is the case with many of these projected Thursday night shootouts, I get the sense this one may fizzle out in Morgantown. Baylor has seen the 'over' cash in five of its seven games so far this season but is coming off a low-scoring affair against Texas, resulting in a 23-17 loss. In fact, two of the Bears last four games have totaled 40 points or less so track meets have by no means been the norm for this squad this season. Save for a blowout loss at Oklahoma on September 29th, the Bears have actually held their own defensively of late. Even in a game where they allowed 34 points (in a winning effort) against Kansas State, they gave up just two touchdowns through the first three quarters. Like Baylor, West Virginia is coming off its bye week, which came on the heels of an ugly 30-14 loss at Iowa State. After a red hot start to the season we've seen the Mountaineers offense cool somewhat, relatively speaking in the wild, often high-scoring Big 12. Even against a hapless Kansas defense two games back, the Mountaineers scored three first half touchdowns but then didn't find the end zone again until the final play of the third quarter. We have seen stretches where the West Virginia offense has gone stagnant this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced 74 points, managing to eclipse the total. With that said, we haven't seen back-to-back 'over' results in this series since 2012 and 2013. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Toledo v. Western Michigan UNDER 68 | Top | 51-24 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
NCAAF MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toledo and Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have been involved in their share of shootouts this season but I don't necessarily see one developing on Thursday night. Since exploding for 52 points against a hapless Bowling Green defense, Toledo has been held to just 43 points combined in its last two games - both losses. The Rockets managed only two first half touchdowns in last Saturday's loss to Buffalo, and those came on 70 and 80-yard plays - the type of plays I don't expect to see out of them against an improving Western Michigan defense. The Broncos were involved in an unsurprising track meet against Bowling Green two weeks ago but followed that up with a defensive gem against Central Michigan last Saturday, winning that game by a 35-10 score. Western Michigan scored three first half touchdowns in that game before going scoreless until the final minute of the third quarter. Even in their 42-point outburst against Bowling Green, the Broncos didn't find the end zone until over midway through the second quarter. Toledo rolled past Western Michigan by a 37-10 score in last year's meeting. I don't believe the Rockets will come close to approaching that level of output this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 58 | 10-45 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. These lofty totals have become much more commonplace in NFL action this season after a number of years where we would see totals top out at 54 points or so. In this case, I believe the high posted total is warranted as this matchup sets up as a shootout. The Chiefs are of course rolling on offense right now and unlikely to be slowed down by a Bengals defense that hasn't done much to stop opposing running or passing games this season. Even with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict, the Bengals are still giving up just shy of five yards per rush. Meanwhile, they've been getting shredded on a weekly basis by opposing passing games. The Bengals offense remains somewhat underrated with QB Andy Dalton enjoying a renaissance year under center. RB Joe Mixon returned to the field last week and should contribute after being a virtual non-factor against the Steelers last week. We won with the 'under' in last week's game against the Steelers, as we anticipated more of a physical, defensive tone between two defensive rivals. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 52 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
NFL NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Rams last game – a relatively low-scoring win in Denver last week. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Los Angeles will certainly be taking a step down in class against a 49ers defense that did nothing to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the somewhat limited Packers offense on Monday night. In fact, the Niners have had a tough time slowing down anyone this season. The good news is, the San Francisco offense continues to evolve with C.J. Beathard under center. He certainly looked comfortable running the offense in Green Bay on Monday night and while he faces a slightly tougher test here, the fact is the Rams defense has been below average, and will be playing on the road for the third straight game. With RB Matt Breida, TE George Kittle and WR Marquise Goodwin, the Niners have more than their share of offensive weapons. Meanwhile, the Rams will be without WR Cooper Kupp but shouldn’t miss a beat offensively. QB Jared Goff is coming off a subpar performance last Sunday but should bounce back in a big way here. And of course RB Todd Gurley should run wild as he’s done virtually every week this season. This is a high posted total but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears OVER 48 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I believe there’s strong potential for a back-and-forth shootout in this game as both teams come in off high-scoring affairs last Sunday. The Patriots offense continues to round into form. They’re fresh off a 43-point effort against the hapless Chiefs defense last Sunday night so they’ll definitely be facing a tougher challenge here. With that being said, I believe they’re in good position to keep building against a Bears defense that got completely worn down in the Miami heat last Sunday afternoon. It’s worth noting that Khalil Mack is questionable for the Bears as he deals with an ankle injury. I really like the emergence of RB Sony Michel in the Patriots offense, not to mention the way WR Julian Edelman has worked his way back into the fold. We should only see the Pats offense continue to improve from here. Meanwhile, the Bears offense has also been evolving nicely with QB Mitchell Trubisky settling in and doing an excellent job of spreading the football around to his multitude of weapons. Over his last two games, Trubisky has thrown for well over 600 yards and nine touchdowns (mind you much of that success came against the lowly Bucs defense two games back). In this particular matchup, Chicago should find success with their short passing game. Note that the Patriots have given up at least 24 points in four of six games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets OVER 45.5 | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon as the Vikings find themselves in a terrific spot to explode offensively. The Jets haven’t been able to generate a pass rush, nor have they don’t a consistently good job defending the pass. That leaves them in a very difficult position trying to slow down a Vikings offense that save for its pass protection has been truly electric this season. The question is whether the Jets can do enough offensively to help this total along. The good news is they do come in with plenty of confidence following back-to-back big offensive showings against the Broncos and Colts. They’ll face a tougher test here, but should be able to turn some drives into points, noting that the Vikings did lose one of their most underrated defenders in cornerback Mike Hughes to a torn ACL last week. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs OVER 52 | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect anything other than a shootout in this Sunday afternoon matchup in Tampa. The Browns offense has the potential to go off, just as virtually every opponent of the dreadful Bucs defense has this season. Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith was fired earlier this week but it’s tough to envision much changing here. It’s worth noting that the Tampa Bay defense is without two of its best defenders in DT Gerald McCoy and DE Vinny Curry. Browns QB Baker Mayfield should have plenty of time and room to operate and has just enough talent at the WR and TE position to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard here. We saw the Bucs offense thrive, as expected, in Atlanta last Sunday (we won with the ‘over’) and while it certainly draws a tougher matchup here, I’m still anticipating plenty of scoring drives, noting that the Browns defense suffered a big drop-off in performance in their last road game, a wild 45-42 loss in Oakland. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State OVER 67.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oregon and Washington State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I fully expect this to turn into the shootout that most are anticipating on Saturday night in Pullman. Oregon was involved in a slightly lower-scoring game than it is accustomed to last week, posting an impressive 30-27 home win over Washington. That improved the Ducks to 5-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in a real blown opportunity at home against Stanford back on September 22nd. I liked the way the Ducks persevered on offense against the Huskies last Saturday as they still managed to score 30 points despite an off day from QB Justin Herbert. He threw for only 202 yards on 18 completions in that game but should bounce back with a big performance against a very beatable Washington State defense here. After starting the season with a couple of strong defensive showings in cupcake matchups against Wyoming and San Jose State, we’ve seen the Cougars struggle to keep the opposition out of the end zone lately, allowing 124 points over their last four games, good for 31 points per game. Offensively, Washington State is a juggernaut. It comes in rested and ready off its bye week, after scoring a whopping 56 points in a wild, shootout victory over Oregon State on October 6th. QB Gardner Minshew has put up video game numbers this season, throwing for over 400 yards in four of his last five games, totaling 16 passing touchdowns and just three interceptions over that stretch. The Oregon defense has been good but not great, despite facing few truly explosive offenses this season. Keep in mind, the Ducks have only played one of their first six games away from home. In their lone road contest, they allowed 24 points against a relatively weak Cal offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | California v. Oregon State +7.5 | Top | 49-7 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 57 m | Show |
NCAAF Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab all the points I can get with the Beavers as they host a reeling California squad on Saturday afternoon. The Golden Bears got off to a fast start this season, posting three straight victories to open the campaign. However, since then they’ve dropped three in a row and all three games could have been considered ‘winnable’. Now they head out on the road to take on a 1-5 Oregon State squad that won’t draw a great deal of motivation when you consider the Bears posted a relatively easy 37-23 win in this matchup last year. The Beavers have been getting blown out on the regular lately, dropping their last three games by a combined 68 points but I do like the progression we’ve seen from their offense, as well as the fact that they’re coming off their bye week. Last time out they hung around until the fourth quarter against a good Washington State team, actually grabbing a lead early in the third quarter. It’s worth noting that the Beavers recently welcomed back electric RB Artavis Pierce and he should make an impact in this matchup. The Oregon State defense hasn’t been good by any means but is the Cal offense capable of taking advantage? Note that the Bears have scored a grand total of 48 points during their current three-game losing streak and managed only a single touchdown, which didn’t come until midway through the third quarter, against a middle of the road UCLA defense last week. Take Oregon State (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Kansas v. Texas Tech OVER 58.5 | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 42 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas and Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon. Kansas has been a perennial Big 12 doormat and this year appears to be no different as it enters this matchup off three straight blowout losses to open the conference slate. We have at least seen some signs of life from the Jayhawks offense, however, and I do believe they catch the Red Raiders in a favorable spot here, as Texas Tech is coming off one of its best defensive showings of the season in a big 17-14 road win at TCU last Thursday. It’s certainly well within the realm of possibility that the Red Raiders could let down their guard in this layup spot. Kansas has continued to bomb away in losing efforts against Oklahoma State and West Virginia over its last two games, scoring a combined 50 points in the process. Keep in mind, we also saw the Jayhawks explode for 55 points in a matchup with Rutgers earlier this season. While that wasn’t all that impressive when you consider the opposition, the fact is, the Jayhawks haven’t been able to generate that level of offense against anyone in recent years. Of course, we know that the Red Raiders are capable of on offense. Prior to last week’s defensive battle against TCU (we won with the ‘under’ in that game), they had scored 215 points over their last four games, good for an average of well north of 50 points per contest. The last time we saw Kansas, it gave up three touchdowns against West Virginia before the game was 19 minutes old. The Jayhawks have given up a whopping 86 points over their last two games. This matchup produced 84 points last October as Texas Tech rolled to a 65-19 victory. I’m anticipating a bit more competitive of a game this time around, which lends itself to another high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 50 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Colorado and Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve won with the ‘under’ in each of Colorado’s last two games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Buffaloes turned in an awful second quarter last week against USC, allowing three touchdowns. They didn’t give up another offensive touchdown in the game’s other three quarters, however. Two weeks ago they gave up a touchdown in each of the first three quarters against Arizona State but then held the Sun Devils off the scoreboard from 13 minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Washington is coming off a couple of higher-scoring games than it is accustomed to over the last two weeks. With that being said, the Huskies have scored more than 35 points in a game just once this season, and that came against FCS squad North Dakota back on September 8th. They’re not an offensive juggernaut by any means but do possess a formidable defense. Even last week, Washington didn’t allow a touchdown against Oregon until the final two minutes of the first quarter and then not again until the last 15 seconds of the first half. The Huskies have given up 21 points or less in five of seven games this season. This matchup resulted in a blowout last year as Washington rolled to a 37-10 victory. I’m confident we’ll see the Buffaloes defense hold up much better this time around but I’m not convinced we’ll see Colorado break through against a terrific Huskies defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson OVER 56 | 7-41 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between N.C. State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Wolfpack and Tigers to battle in an ACC showdown of unbeatens on Saturday afternoon. N.C. State is off to a surprising 5-0 start but did dodge a matchup with West Virginia on September 15th as that game was cancelled. I do like what I’ve seen from the N.C. State offense, particularly its consistency. Note that the Wolfpack have scored 24, 41, 37, 35 and 28 points. They’ve seemingly been getting more efficient with each passing week. Clemson does boast an elite defense but was certainly made to look even better by a disjointed Wake Forest offense last time out. Note that the Tigers have allowed 20+ points in half of their games this season, only holding Furman, Georgia Southern and aforementioned Wake Forest to fewer points. Offensively, there’s little reason to expect any sort of regression from Clemson coming off its bye week. QB Trevor Lawrence continues to get acclimated to the offense while the Tigers run game has been positive dominant. Against Wake Forest, Clemson had three rushers total at least 128 yards on the ground with a touchdown, combining for six scores in total. Last year’s matchup between these two teams was a shootout, with the Tigers prevailing by a 38-31 score. While there’s a chance the Tigers manhandle the Wolfpack offense here, I believe we’re dealing with a reasonable enough total to take a shot with the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Virginia +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
NCAAF ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. Points are likely to come at a premium in this matchup and with that in mind I’ll grab all the points I can get with the Cavaliers. Virginia successfully bounced back from a loss at N.C. State, delivering a 16-13 win over Miami last week. One bad quarter essentially did the Cavaliers in against the Wolfpack but we saw them ride a masterful defensive effort to victory last Saturday. I’m confident they can contain the Duke offense as well, noting that the Blue Devils have scored more than 28 points in a game only twice this season, with those two efforts coming against Baylor and FCS squad NC Central. They’ve scored a grand total of only 42 points over their last two contests and were held to 21 points in a loss to Virginia last year. The Cavaliers defense isn’t great by any means, but has done enough to instill confidence going up against a fairly tough Duke defense. Note that RB Jordan Ellis has found the end zone in three of his last four games, totaling five touchdowns over that stretch. QB Bryce Perkins had thrown for at least two touchdowns in each of his first five games before a rough outing against a strong Miami defense last week (he completed only 12-of-21 passes for 92 yards and three interceptions in that game). The fact that the Cavaliers still managed to outlast the Hurricanes even with that poor performance from Perkins was encouraging to say the least. Take Virginia (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Miami-OH v. Army UNDER 48 | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami-Ohio and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in West Point on Saturday afternoon. Miami-Ohio has put up some gawdy offensive numbers lately, scoring 38, 39, 41 and 31 points over its last four games. That’s had more to do with the MAC matchups the Redhawks have faced over that stretch than anything else, however. I certainly don’t expect them to enjoy that level of success on the road against a good Army defense on Saturday. On the flip side, I do believe we’ll see Miami-Ohio continue to thrive defensively. It has given up a grand total of 23 points over its last two games. Even in wild, high-scoring games against Bowling Green and Western Michigan back in late September, there were still positives. Against Bowling Green, the Redhawks didn’t allow a touchdown until over halfway through the fourth quarter. They gave up two first quarter touchdowns against Western Michigan but then didn’t allow the Broncos to reach the end zone again until six minutes into the third quarter. The Redhawks had a difficult time containing the Western Michigan passing game, but won’t be faced with such a challenge here as Army rarely throws the football. Also note that earlier in the campaign the Redhawks held Cincinnati and Minnesota to just 21 and 26 points, respectively, albeit in lopsided losses. Army has scored a whopping 94 points over its last two games, but again, that has had more to do with the matchups than anything else. Last week it caught a terrible San Jose State squad and was held scoreless for a quarter before the Spartans awful run defense got worn down and the floodgates opened. I’m more interested in the Black Knights defense here, noting that they have allowed 21 points or less in all but one game this season – that coming against Duke back in their season-opener. Even in the 34-14 loss to Duke they didn’t give up a touchdown until the second quarter. The last time these two teams met we saw a 35-28 shootout in favor of Miami-Ohio, but that was way back in 2011. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-18 | Air Force v. UNLV UNDER 57 | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Air Force and UNLV at 10 pm et on Friday. This is a make-or-break game for both of these programs as far as their Bowl prospects go this season. With both checking in at 2-4, neither can afford to suffer a fifth loss with the end of October approaching. We won with the 'under' in Air Force's narrow 21-17 loss at San Diego State last Friday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Since giving up 42 points in a loss at Utah State back on September 22nd, Air Force has allowed a grand total of just 56 points over its last three contests. It did allow 30 points against UNLV in last year's matchup but catches a break here as the Runnin' Rebels are without their versatile QB Armani Rogers, who torched the Falcons for 148 rushing yards and a score in last year's meeting. Without Rogers over their last two games, the Rebels offense has been limited, with sophomore QB Max Gilliam throwing for five touchdowns, but most of those came in garbage time when UNLV was already getting blown out. I do expect a more competitive affair here, meaning the Rebels will have less opportunity to pad their stats against disinterested fourth quarter defense. It's worth noting that opposing defenses have keyed on RB Lexington Thomas in Rogers' absence, holding him to just 87 yards on 18 carries over the last two games. The Falcons triple-option offense is obviously tough to prepare for on a short week but the good news is, the Rebels face Air Force every year in the Mountain West Conference and should certainly have a chip on their shoulder after giving up 50+ points in back-to-back games. UNLV does have a better defense that it has shown over the last couple of games and this is a pretty good bounce-back spot against an Air Force squad that has topped out at 38 points this season - that performance coming against FCS squad Stony Brook back in its season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Cardinals on Thursday night as they host the reeling Broncos. Arizona has certainly shown signs of turning things around over the last couple of weeks. Two games back, the Cardinals posted a 28-18 victory over an improving 49ers squad in San Francisco. Just last Sunday they battled the Vikings hard for 60 minutes, ultimately falling by 10 points, on the road no less. Now they return home and draw a favorable matchup against a Denver squad that can’t get out of its own way right now. The Broncos have lost four straight games, allowing at least 23 points in each of those losses. Meanwhile, their offense continues to lag, having scored 20 points or less in four of their last five contests. QB Case Keenum doesn’t look like the right fit for the offense, with some Broncos faithful calling for Chad Kelly to take over. Outside of WR Emmanuel Sanders I don’t see any of the Broncos having much of an edge against a still-capable Cardinals defense. On the flip side, Arizona RB David Johnson should face little resistance against a Broncos defense that has had no success at all stopping the run in recent weeks. Denver’s once-feared ‘no fly zone’ defense is no more. Chris Harris is essentially the lone bright spot in the Broncos secondary. While the Cardinals by no means have an elite WR corps, especially with veteran Larry Fitzgerald playing at well below 100% healthy, they’re still capable of stretching the field and exposing the Broncos secondary. Look for WR Christian Kirk to continue to build on his solid rapport with rookie QB Josh Rosen, helping pace the offense in what I believe will be a win for the Cardinals. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State OVER 56 | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia State and Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Jonesboro on Thursday night. We had to settle for a push with the ‘under’ in Georgia State’s most recent game – a 37-20 road loss to Troy back on October 4th. That was certainly a tough draw for the Panthers against a good Troy defense. Here, they should face a lot less resistance against an Arkansas State defense that just got dismantled by Appalachian State last week. The Mountaineers got off to a sluggish start against the Red Wolves, but eventually settled in and scored three second quarter touchdowns before adding two more in the second half. Appalachian State essentially got whatever it wanted against this Arkansas State defense. One game before that we also saw the Red Wolves hold up well for a stretch before falling apart and allowing three touchdowns from five minutes remaining in the third quarter until the end of the game in a loss to Georgia Southern. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout loss at Troy, Georgia State scored 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe, finding the end zone four times in the first half alone. The problem for the Panthers has been their defense, which got lit up for three touchdowns before the game was just over a quarter old against Troy and also allowed 34 points or more in each contest during a three-game slide earlier this season. Arkansas State shot itself in the foot time and time again on offense against Appalachian State last week but should find the going much easier against Georgia State. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at Lambeau Field on Monday night. Most have already written off the 49ers given all of their injuries, including the big one to QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Last week's home loss to the lowly Cardinals certainly did nothing to change that narrative. While I'm not high enough on the 'Niners to suggest grabbing the points with them here on Monday, I do expect them to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. QB C.J. Beathard has actually performed admirably in a backup role here since the start of last season. Last week we saw him turn in a 300+ yard passing day, even with a number of his offensive weapons sidelined. What I like about Beathard is his ability to extend plays with his mobility. Note that he has scored a rushing touchdown in four of the eight games he's gotten into since the start of last year. The emergence of TE George Kittle has given the 49ers offense a different look this season and he should prove to be a handful for the Packers struggling defense on Monday. Even though he's still nursing a number of injuries, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers continues to bomb away and that's not going to change on Monday night. With the return of RB Aaron Jones the Packers do possess a more versatile offense than they did earlier this season, with three capable running backs to lean on. Like the 49ers, the Pack are also dealing with some key injuries on offense and at wide receiver in particular. I'm not really sure it matters all that much here though. Rodgers should be able to turn in one of his best stat lines of the season against a very beatable 49ers defense that hasn't had any success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks or slowing down vertical aerial attacks. Look for a big night from Packers TE Jimmy Graham. It's also worth noting that the 'Niners are giving up well north of four yards per rush this season. This may not evolve into a true shootout, but I do believe the posted total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a rematch of last year’s season-opener – a game the Chiefs won in blowout fashion right here in Foxborough. I expect a much different story to unfold this time around as the Patriots look to gain an ounce of revenge against Andy Reid’s undefeated squad. I like the way this one sets up for the Pats as they come off an extended week following their Thursday night win over the Colts. We’ve seen their offense evolve and improve over the early stages of the season and I’m confident we’ll see their best effort of the campaign to date on Sunday night against a very beatable Chiefs defense. New England welcomed WR Julian Edelman back to the field last week and he should continue to see his role increase as the weeks go on. In this game I actually expect to see the Patriots backfield take center stage with RBs James White and Sony Michel going off against a porous Chiefs defense. We have seen some chinks in the Chiefs offensive armor over the last couple of games, with the Broncos and Jaguars at least laying out somewhat of a blueprint as to how to slow down this juggernaut. This certainly has all the makings of a shootout, but in the end I like the Patriots to make a couple more big plays down the stretch and pull away for a win and cover. Take New England (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Baltimore and Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘under’ in the Ravens overtime loss to the Browns last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play this week as Baltimore stays on the road to face the Titans. This Baltimore defense continues to improve and welcomed back cornerback Jimmy Smith last week – a true gamechanger for this unit. I’m confident in Baltimore’s ability to limit a below average Titans offense here. Tennessee has topped out at 26 points this season, but that came two weeks ago against a depleted Eagles defense that has struggled in the early going. The good news is, the Titans do possess a terrific defense that is capable of containing a Ravens offense that has really only been able to bust out against bottom-tier defenses this season. We’ve seen Baltimore make headway against the likes of Buffalo, Denver and Pittsburgh. However, in its other two games against Cincinnati and Cleveland it managed to score a grand total of 32 points. Note that when these two teams met last season, the Titans prevailed by a 23-20 score. I believe both defenses are better this year and anticipate a lower-scoring affair as a result. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Even with the Rams injury concerns at the wide receiver position, and the Broncos struggles with Case Keenum under center, I’m still anticipating a shootout in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Rams offense has a bit of a ‘next man up’ feel so even if Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are unable to go, I still expect to see this unit put plenty of points on the board. Keep in mind, the Rams still have arguably the best running back in football in Todd Gurley, who should have a field day against a vulnerable Broncos run defense on Sunday afternoon. We successfully faded the Broncos on the road against the Jets last Sunday and the fact is, the final numbers put up by their offense actually made things look a lot better than they actually were, putting points on the board in garbage time. Here, I am expecting a strong bounce-back performance from the Denver offense as they draw a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has had a miserable time slowing down opponents this season. While Los Angeles is certainly thought of as an elite team, deservingly so, it’s largely on the strength of its offense. Defensively, the Rams are missing key cogs and the personnel they have had on the field has not come close to living up to expectations. There’s little reason to expect a sudden turnaround as they stay on the road for the second straight week and face a highly-motivated Broncos offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Colts v. Jets OVER 45 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. The Colts defense has fallen back to Earth following a surprisingly strong start to the season. They check into this one having allowed over 30 points in back-to-back games and while things should get a little easier here, the Jets are coming off their best offensive showing of the season last week and could build off of that performance in this favorable matchup at home. QB Sam Darnold has shown plenty of positives in his rookie campaign and should be brimming with confidence after hitting a number of big plays against the Broncos once-feared pass defense last week. We saw WR Robby Anderson re-emerge in last week’s contest and I look for some carry-over from that performance as he continues to build chemistry with Darnold. On the flip side, the Colts offense has shown some progression with QB Andrew Luck getting back in rhythm with the offense. He did well to keep his team in the game against the Patriots last week. The Colts have been bombing away, so to speak, and I anticipate more of the same here this Sunday as Indianapolis could be playing from behind once again. The Jets defense isn’t scaring anyone these days. While the Colts are still missing WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle, they showed last week that they can still consistently move the football down the field with their short passing game. It’s that short game that should give the Jets some trouble on Sunday afternoon. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here due to the reputations these two teams carry as AFC also-rans. I see the game playing out differently. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 48 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 64 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s not easy to call for a shootout in a game involving the Raiders these days. They were absolutely manhandled by the Chargers last Sunday but do find themselves in a favorable spot here facing a Seahawks defense that is by no means a feared unit anymore. After giving RB Marshawn Lynch very little work in last week’s blowout loss, I do expect Oakland to go back to Lynch in this matchup against his former team and that should bode well for the Raiders offensive production. As for the Seahawks, I expect their offense to go off against a weak Raiders defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run, allowing over five yards per rush, nor has it been able to defend the deep ball, which plays right into the hands of this Seattle aerial attack. The Seahawks are of course back at full strength in their passing game with WR Doug Baldwin back on the field. He was virtually a non-factor in last week’s narrow loss to the Rams but should play a much bigger role this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game has quietly emerged as a serious threat to opposing defenses and I’m confident we’ll see Chris Carson and Mike Davis run wild in this contest. This is a reasonably high posted total for a ‘London game’ but I do believe it’s warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 64 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’m confident we’ll see the Seahawks take care of business as they head across the pond to face the lowly Raiders on Sunday. Oakland showed signs of life in a come-from-behind win over the Browns two weeks ago but couldn’t follow it up last Sunday, falling in blowout fashion against the Chargers. Don’t count on a big bounce-back performance here as I see this as a terrible matchup for the Raiders defense against the Seahawks emerging offense. Seattle QB Russell Wilson still isn’t at full strength, showing little scrambling ability, at least compared to what we’ve seen from him in years’ past. But the good news is, his arm is fine, as he continues to march the offense up and down the field. We saw the Seattle passing game give the Rams big problems last week and there’s little reason to expect anything different against Oakland. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game should have little trouble carving up a Raiders run defense that allows over five yards per rush this season. Seattle no longer has an elite defense, but I do think it will make just enough plays to contribute to a win and cover on Sunday afternoon in London. Take Seattle (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 57 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is the game that will likely have fantasy owners scrambling to pick up Bucs QB Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay will turn to Winston on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta and he draws an extremely favorable matchup in his first start back. I may sound like a broken record playing Falcons ‘overs’ seemingly every week but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Atlanta defense remains depleted and faces another opponent that won’t hesitate to go vertical on them all afternoon long. With little semblance of a running game, the Bucs will likely bomb away and find success doing so. On the flip side, the Falcons offense is coming off a bit of a stinker last week in Pittsburgh. They were able to move the football but ultimately couldn’t put points on the board, but should rebound against a Bucs defense that has shown absolutely zero ability to slow down opposing passing games. Tampa Bay’s main focus is on stopping the run, and it has done a good job of limiting opposing backs. However, the Bucs secondary is bottom of the barrel and will certainly have its hands full against the Falcons loaded receiving corps. We’re dealing with a very high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 52.5 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting a shootout between these two high-scoring division rivals on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati but these AFC North slugfests rarely play out that way (the most recent meeting between these two teams went 23-20 in favor of the Steelers) and I anticipate more of the same this week. The Steelers were in an absolutely beautiful spot last week, hosting a depleted Falcons defense, at home no less. Not surprisingly, they had their way with Atlanta offensively (we won with the Steelers and the over) but should face a considerably tougher challenge on the road against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati is coming off a strong defensive showing last week, absolutely shutting the Dolphins down after digging an early hole, allowing the offense to rally before notching a late defensive score. I look for some carry-over from that second half performance here. Keep in mind, the Bengals defense has gotten stronger, particularly against the run, with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict. Pittsburgh’s defense had been getting torched repeatedly prior to last week’s bounce-back performance against the Falcons. That effort should bode well for this group as it prepares to face a somewhat underrated Bengals offense on Sunday afternoon. Both teams may very well get into the 20’s in this contest, but I believe the lofty posted total will simply prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings -10 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 64 h 52 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this spot sets up for the Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota’s offense has taken off since that embarrassing no-show at home against the Bills three weeks ago. Since then we’ve seen the Vikes march up and down the field against both the Rams and Eagles, managing to earn a 1-1 split. Now they return home to host a Cardinals squad that is coming off its first victory of the season, but that came against a weak 49ers squad last Sunday. Here, Arizona will face a much tougher challenge, staying on the road and heading two time zones east for an early start in Minnesota. The Vikings defense hasn’t been great this season but did turn in a fairly strong showing in Philadelphia last week and gets a favorable matchup here. If there’s one thing the Vikes have continued to do well it’s stop the run and that should serve them well as they prepare to face Cards RB David Johnson, who has shown some signs of life since QB Josh Rosen took over the offense. I don’t see how Arizona keeps within arm’s reach for four quarters without a passing game to speak of. Look for another big game from Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins as the Vikes roll at home. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 58 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Colorado and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw a fairly high-scoring game between these two teams last season as USC pulled out a 38-24 victory in early November. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday night as both defenses should come to play in this important Pac-12 matchup. We won with the ‘under’ in the Buffaloes 28-21 win over Arizona State last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. In that game, Colorado held Arizona State off the scoreboard from 13 minutes remaining in the third quarter onward. It was another strong showing for the Buffaloes offense with the Montez to Shenault connection coming up big. I do believe USC is capable of slowing that duo down on Saturday night, however. The Trojans manhandled Arizona, on the road no less, last Saturday, holding the Wildcats scoreless until midway through the third quarter in an eventual 24-20 victory. There are still concerns when it comes to the USC offense, however, noting that the Trojans didn’t score again after Aca’Cedric Ware’s long touchdown run in the first five minutes of the third quarter against a weak Arizona defense. After narrowly escaping with a wild 39-36 victory over Washington State in their most recent home game, the Trojans would be wise to avoid another shootout here. Colorado has scored a whopping 78 points in two road games this season, but those came against weak defensive opponents in Colorado State and Nebraska (and the first of those games wasn’t really a true road game as it was played at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver). Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International -2.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 57 h 17 m | Show |
NCAAF C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida International minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. It’s been a roller-coaster ride for Florida International this season, both on and off the field but based on its play over the last several weeks, it does appear to be on the right track. The Panthers have just one loss over their last four games, and that came in respectable fashion (31-17) on the road against Miami. Considering the Panthers last game was a 55-9 walk over Arkansas-Pine Bluff back on September 29th, they should enter this contest rested and ready. Middle Tennessee State on the other hand is coming off two hard-fought wins over Florida Atlantic (we won with the Blue Raiders in that game) and Marshall. Those were two much-needed victories for the Blue Raiders but now I’m anticipating a bit of a letdown. Keep in mind, FIU will be looking to avenge a 37-17 blowout loss at the hands of MTSU last season. I believe the Blue Raiders have been rather fortunate to pull out wins in their last two games, first needing a late rally to overcome a two-touchdown deficit against Florida Atlantic and then digging a 17-10 halftime hole against Marshall last week. It’s worth noting that the Blue Raiders managed only one first half touchdown against the Thundering Herd and it came with just over one minute remaining before halftime. There’s not a lot separating the Blue Raiders and Panthers right now, but I believe FIU is in better position to grab its fourth victory of the season on Saturday night. Take Florida International (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 57.5 | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Virginia Tech and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Chapel Hill on Saturday night. The Hokies are fresh off a relatively high-scoring affair against an emerging Notre Dame offense last week but I expect to see the scoring settle down here. Remember, just two games back, the Hokies held Duke to just one touchdown through the first three quarters in a 31-14 victory, on the road no less. This is also the team that opened the season with a positively dominant defensive performance on the road against Florida State, delivering a 24-3 victory (we won with the ‘under’ in that game). Sure, there was the anomaly against Old Dominion – a game in which the Hokies suffered an inexplicable fourth quarter defensive collapse – but I’m willing to give them a mulligan for that one. This is a spot where the Hokies need to show up and I’m confident they will, on the defensive side of the football at least. North Carolina has been involved in one shootout this season – a 38-35 home win over Pittsburgh back on September 22nd. Outside of that, we’ve seen the Tar Heels offense struggle. Last time out they suffered a 47-10 loss at Miami (we won with the ‘over’) with the offense looking completely out of sync and unsure of itself at times. This isn’t an ideal ‘get right’ spot by any means. I will point out that the Tar Heels defense did hang in against Miami, in spite of the lopsided final score. They allowed just two offensive touchdowns through the first three plus quarters of that game and only three in total over the full 60 minutes. They’ll be taking a step down in class against the Hokies offense here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Missouri v. Alabama UNDER 74 | Top | 10-39 | Win | 100 | 57 h 46 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Missouri and Alabama at 7 pm et on Saturday. It’s not easy playing the ‘under’ in games involving the Alabama Crimson Tide but here we are on Saturday night. ‘Bama has some things to clean up after allowing 31 points in another blowout win over Arkansas last week. I fully expect to see the Crimson Tide come out and play a near-flawless brand of defensive football on Saturday night, even against a tough offensive opponent in Missouri. Keep in mind, while the Tide did give up 31 points against Arkansas, it held the Hogs to only two touchdowns through the game’s first three quarters. It wasn’t until things were completely out of hand that the Tide softened up, relatively speaking. We did cash an ‘over’ ticket in a game involving Missouri back on September 22nd – a 43-29 home loss to Georgia. It is worth nothing, however, that the Tigers scored a touchdown with two minutes remaining in the first quarter but then were held out of the end zone until midway through the third quarter. That was actually a relatively low-scoring game early on that turned on a couple of first half defensive scores by Georgia. While there’s certainly a good chance the Tide defense does some scoring on Saturday night, it’s not really something that we can truly account for. Even last week against South Carolina, Missouri scored two touchdowns before the first quarter was 11 minutes old but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the fourth quarter. The Tigers defense has been pretty bad this season but has shown the ability to hold up for stretches. Going back to the Georgia game, they didn’t’ allow the Bulldogs to score an offensive touchdown until nearly four minutes into the third quarter. ‘Bama rolled to a 42-13 win the last time these two teams met back in 2014. A similar outcome isn’t outside the realm of possibility on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame UNDER 55 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. With Notre Dame coming off three straight relatively high-scoring games and Pitt fresh off a wild, high-scoring overtime win over Syracuse last Saturday (we won with the ‘over’ in that game), we’re dealing with a rather high posted total in advance of this matchup in South Bend on Saturday. I believe the total will prove too high. After getting off to a rough start defensively last week, Pitt did settle down, keeping Syracuse out of the end zone from six minutes remaining in the first quarter until nearly midway through the third quarter. On the flip side, however, the Panthers scored a touchdown with just under six minutes left in the first quarter but then the offense didn’t reach the end zone again until the first minute of the third quarter. It’s also worth noting that the Panthers kept the Orange out of the end zone for the entire fourth quarter and overtime. Notre Dame delivered a 45-23 knockout blow at Virginia Tech last Saturday night. I will point out that the Irish scored a touchdown six minutes into the game but then didn’t put another offensive touchdown on the board until three minutes into the third quarter. They gave up just one touchdown in the second quarter and then didn’t allow another until the game was all but out of hand over halfway through the fourth quarter. The last meeting between these two programs was a shootout but that was back in 2015. Expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Troy v. Liberty OVER 63.5 | 16-22 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Troy and Liberty at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Lynchburg on Saturday afternoon. We settled for a push with the ‘under’ in Troy’s most recent game – a 37-20 win over Georgia State last Thursday night. There’s no denying the Trojans offensive ability as they scored at will both early and late in that victory over the Panthers. Now they draw a matchup with a Liberty squad that is quite simply built for shootouts. Its last two games have reached 95 and 90 total points against New Mexico and New Mexico State. It will obviously be facing a tougher defensive test against the Trojans, but I still feel Liberty will be up for the challenge. Note that it got off to a sluggish start last week, which was perhaps to be expected after scoring 52 points in an upset win the week earlier. Once the Flames got rolling in the second half they managed to find the end zone on four different occasions. I don’t believe Troy will shy away from another shootout here. It seems that the Trojans are getting better offensively with each passing week. While they’ve scored a whopping 82 points in notching back-to-back home wins over the last two weeks, they also scored 35 points (all coming in the first half) in their last road game against Louisiana-Monroe. With Liberty possessing one of the nation’s worst defenses, this has all the makings of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55 | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Duke and Georgia Tech at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. Duke steamrolled Georgia Tech by a 43-20 score in last year’s meeting. The Blue Devils find themselves in an underdog role in the same matchup this Saturday, despite their 4-1 overall record. Rather than focus on the side, I’ll call for a lower-scoring game than the betting marketplace is anticipating. Unlike past editions of the Blue Devils, this year’s squad can play some defense. They’ve allowed 14 points or less in three of five games so far, but are coming off a 31-14 setback at home against Virginia Tech last time out. They’ve had an extra week to regroup following that loss and I fully expect them to rebound with a strong effort here. It seemed in that game against the Hokies, the Blue Devils hung tough early, limiting Virginia Tech to just a single field goal in the first quarter before grabbing a lead and letting down their guard. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw Duke go on the road against a good Baylor offense and hold the Bears scoreless for the entire first half and gave up just one offensive touchdown through the first three quarters. The Blue Devils familiarity with the Yellow Jackets’ option-based offense will certainly help their cause here. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Georgia Tech’s last game – a wild 66-31 shootout victory over Louisville last Friday night. The Yellow Jackets have now scored 60+ points in back-to-back games but I don’t see them coming close to reaching that level of offensive production here. Remember, the Jackets were held to just 40 points combined in back-to-back losses to Pitt and Clemson earlier this season. They took full advantage of a Louisville squad that simply didn’t show up last week – something they won’t be afforded against what will be a hungry Blue Devils team in a bounce-back spot here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Florida v. Vanderbilt UNDER 50.5 | 37-27 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Florida and Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is a bit of a tricky spot for Florida, on the heels of four straight victories, including a big 27-19 win over rival LSU last Saturday, it hits the road to face a Vanderbilt squad that will be eager to bounce back from a poor showing at Georgia last week. The Gators haven’t given up much defensively this season. Even in their lone loss at Kentucky they allowed just one first half touchdown and with the game hanging in the balance held the Wildcats scoreless from four minutes left in the third quarter until allowing a defensive fumble return for a touchdown on the game’s final play. Last week against LSU, Florida gave up a touchdown in the game’s first four minutes but then didn’t allow the Tigers to sniff the end zone again until a few minutes into the fourth quarter. Now they face a limited Vandy offense that didn’t score a touchdown until two seconds remaining in the game at Georgia last week, at which point the Bulldogs defense wasn’t really all that interested. Even two games back at home against FCS squad Tennessee State, Vandy didn’t score a touchdown until four minutes into the second quarter. I do expect the Commodores defense to show up for this one, however. They actually hung tough with the Bulldogs for much of the first half last week, only suffering a lapse on a 75-yard touchdown catch early in the first quarter before getting sloppy again on Georgia’s final drive of the opening half. We did cash an ‘under’ ticket in the Commodores 22-17 loss at Notre Dame back in early September. I can’t help but feel that this situation sets up similarly. Vandy will be overmatched talent-wise, but might just catch the Gators lacking a real ‘killer instinct’, which would play into our hands with an ‘under’ ticket in hand as far as I’m concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 7 m | Show |
NCAAF Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Air Force and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in San Diego on Friday night. This hasn’t exactly been a low-scoring series in recent years but I expect to see a different story unfold this time around. Air Force is coming off a dominant 35-7 win over Navy. It is worth noting that the Falcons didn’t find the end zone until over midway through the second quarter in that game. Even in a wild 42-32 loss at Utah State two games back, Air Force scored two second quarter touchdowns but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the fourth quarter. Earlier this season against Florida Atlanta (we won with AFA and the ‘under’ in that game) the Falcons didn’t score a touchdown until there were less than three minutes remaining in the first half. You get the picture. Now the Falcons go on the road to face a stout San Diego State defense that is coming off its most impressive performance of the season, defeating Boise State by a 19-13 score last Saturday, on the road no less. Over the course of its current four-game winning streak, San Diego State has given up a grand total of just 68 points. With that being said, the Aztecs offense hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut. They’ve yet to score more than 28 points in a game this season. Of note, in a 28-14 win over FCS squad Sacramento State earlier this season, the Aztecs scored a touchdown with a little under six minutes left in the first quarter but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the game’s final four minutes. Two games back at home against Eastern Michigan, the Aztecs managed only two touchdowns, both coming in the second quarter. In other words, both of these squads are prone to extended touchdown droughts. While we are dealing with a relatively low total, I believe it is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Giants last second loss at Carolina last Sunday while missing the mark with the 'over' in the Eagles home loss to the Vikings. I'll stay the course and call for the 'over' again as this matchup has shootout potential on Thursday night. The Eagles offense didn't look particularly sharp last Sunday against Minnesota but it may have been a case of the wrong place at the wrong time as the Vikes were bent on revenge after falling in last year's NFC Championship Game and were coming off an extended week following a tough Thursday night loss to the Rams in Los Angeles, in which their defense got lit up. Here the Eagles will draw a Giants defense that hasn't had any answers for opposing offenses this season due to injuries and otherwise. The G-Men will get Olivier Vernon back this week but all indications are that he'll be on a limited snap count. In the last eight meetings in this series, the Giants have allowed 27, 34, 27, 35, 23, 24, 27 and 34 points. As for the Giants offense, we've seen them turning things around lately, scoring at least 27 points in two of their last three games. The Eagles defense is injury-ravaged and has had its hands full with Eli Manning and co. at the best of times in recent years. I've been one of Manning's biggest critics but there's no denying we saw plenty of positives in last week's shootout loss to the Panthers. It does seem as if the G-Men are finally figuring out ways to move the football with all of that star power on offense. With Rodney McLeod sidelined and now his replacement Corey Graham on the shelf as well, Philadelphia is in a tough spot trying to defend the pass. Regardless who falls behind in this game there's certainly 'bomb away' potential against these defenses. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas Tech and TCU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This one will be billed as a shootout but I’m not convinced that’s how the story will unfold on Thursday night in Fort Worth. Texas Tech is coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against West Virginia back on September 29th. With a posted total in the mid-70s for that one, it certainly had all the makings of a shootout and played out precisely that way. I will point out, however, after giving up four first quarter touchdowns the Red Raiders did hold the Mountaineers to just one offensive touchdown the rest of the way. Offensively, Texas Tech could only muster one first half touchdown of its own. Two games back the Red Raiders posted an impressive 42-17 win at Oklahoma State, allowing just two first half touchdowns before shutting out the Cowboys the rest of the way. I certainly would not expect TCU to get involved in many shootouts of its own this season. There was a 40-28 loss to Ohio State back on September 15th (we missed with the ‘under’ in that game) but that contest included two defensive scores by the Buckeyes. The next week, the Horned Frogs were completely manhandled by Texas (we won with the ‘under’ in that game) and last time out they had to settle for a narrow 17-14 win over Iowa State at home on September 29th. Keep in mind, last year’s matchup between these two teams totaled only 30 points as the Horned Frogs won in a walk, 27-3. Both teams enter this game rested and ready and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +9.5 | 35-9 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arkansas State plus the points over Appalachian State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Red Wolves as they try to avoid an 0-2 hole in Sun Belt play on Tuesday night against Appalachian State. The Mountaineers will certainly pose a stiff challenge as they check in 3-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in overtime at Penn State back in Week 1. They haven't really been tested since that contest, rolling to blowout wins over Charlotte, Gardner Webb and South Alabama. They will face a challenge here, however, with Arkansas State widely considered a top contender for the Sun Belt crown this year. The Red Wolves dropped their conference opener at Georgia Southern last time out but there was no real shame in that loss. Georgia Southern is a quality team that remains vastly overlooked and underrated. Arkansas State had now answers for the Eagles option-based offense and will welcome facing a more conventional offensive attack here against Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season. Note that they didn't notch their fifth ATS victory last year until the final week of the regular season on December 2nd. In 2016 they didn't pick up their fifth ATS win until October 27th. So it's not as if this is a program that has been enjoying a ton of ATS success in recent years. I simply feel that Arkansas State will be the more desperate football team on Tuesday night and can at the very least take this game down to the wire. Take Arkansas State (10*). |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at the Superdome on Monday night. The Redskins have given up yardage in big chunks on the ground this season but that's by design as they're willing to give up rushing yards and focus on stopping the pass. That should actually serve them well against the explosive Saints offense on Monday night. Note that New Orleans will get RB Mark Ingram back from suspension on Monday which could certainly lead to the Saints being a little more run-oriented. The Saints defense has finally shown some signs of life after a miserable start to the season. They were tough on the Giants last week, on the road no less, and keep in mind, New York scored 30+ points yesterday in Carolina. Here, the Saints draw a manageable matchup as the Redskins offense isn't going to scare anyone. QB Alex Smith has yet to get completely in sync with the offense and Washington has proven rather one-dimensional over its last couple of games (after Adrian Peterson turned back the clock in Week 1 against Arizona). I simply feel that we'll see plenty of long, clock-eating drives in this contest. I'm not convinced that the lofty total is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Houston at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Texans finally notched a victory last week but it didn't come easy as they outlasted the Colts by a 37-34 score in overtime. Now they return home in a favored role against the Cowboys - another team that has struggled in the early going this season. I'll grab the points with Dallas in this spot as I simply feel the 'Boys have a little more upside right now. Houston's secondary has been decimated by injuries going all the way back to the summer. The latest to go down was cornerback Aaron Colvin, leaving a gaping hole should the Cowboys choose to exploit it. Of course, there are questions whether Dallas is capable of taking advantage of such a weakness. I actually feel this game will be more about QB Dak Prescott utilizing RB Ezekiel Elliott in the passing game. We can expect the Cowboys to employ a clock-chewing gameplan on offense while leaving the rest to their underrated defense which gets back DL David Irving from suspension this week. Without LB Sean Lee the Cowboys are certainly vulnerable against the run, but do the Texans have the personnel in place to take advantage? I'm not so sure. Meanwhile, the Dallas secondary has been tough and simply doesn't give up big plays. That is key as the 'Boys try to contain a Texans offense that relies on those big plays through the air to WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller (not to mention Keke Coutee who made a big splash in his debut last week). Take Dallas (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Perhaps the fact that both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring games last week, certainly higher-scoring than expected, is resulting in us dealing with a rather lofty posted total in advance of this Sunday night showdown. Whatever the case, I'll back the 'under' as I don't have a great deal of faith in either offense right now. The Cowboys will do their best to churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense again this week, centring around RB Ezekiel Elliott. While I do believe the Texans have their weaknesses defensively, most of those lie in the secondary where they are ravaged by injuries. Their run defense has actually been stout, giving up just 3.6 yards per rush this season. And the question remains whether the Cowboys are capable of exposing any secondary, no matter how depleted, with their often lifeless passing game. The Dallas defense doesn't get nearly enough credit, mainly because it's been overshadowed by the issues on offense. Even without LB Sean Lee, the 'Boys still possess a solid defense across the board and one that will only get better with the return of DL David Irving from suspension this week. Lee's absence is mainly felt against the run but the Texans backfield is average at best. It's through the air where the Cowboys will need to be on their toes defending but I like the way their secondary matches up against the Texans strong wide receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. The last time these two teams met in 2014 we saw only 37 total points. That has little bearing on the outcome of this week's game but I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 50 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon. We've actually won with the 'over' in each of the Rams last two contests and there's absolutely no reason to switch gears here. It seems impossible, but the Rams offense is actually getting better with each passing week. It feels like ages ago that we saw them sputter in the early going against the Raiders in Week 1. Now they look like a fine-tuned machine and with an extra few days to prepare for this matchup against a depleted Seahawks defense I fully expect a big performance across the board. There are concerns worth noting on the Rams defense, however. Cornerback Aqib Talib remains sidelined and while fellow corner Marcus Peters has managed to stay on the field he hasn't looked healthy and has subsequently gotten burned on a number of occasions over the last couple of weeks. Los Angeles should be able to score at will against the Earl Thomas-less Seattle defense but I don't believe it will be the only team putting points on the board on Sunday afternoon. Seattle did welcome back WR Doug Baldwin last week and in his absence Tyler Lockett carved out a nice role in this offense as well. Likely playing from behind most of the day, I expect the Seahawks to all but abandon their running game and more passing certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 57 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a beatdown in favor of the undefeated Rams on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. First of all, Los Angeles has had an extra few days to prepare for this matchup following last week's impressive home win over the Vikings. You can be sure that head coach Sean McVay has some tricks up his sleeve as he'll see this as a big challenge playing in a hostile environment in Seattle and matching wits with a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Pete Carroll. The case can be made that QB Jared Goff has been the league's best quarterback so far this season which is really saying something given how well we've seen some of the veterans and young arms alike perform in the early going. There's little reason to expect any regression from Goff and the Rams offense here as they face a Seahawks defense that certainly isn't what it once was, and just lost safety Earl Thomas to a broken leg. The question is whether the Rams defense can hold up well enough against a highly-motivated Seahawks offense that has shown some improvement and welcomed back WR Doug Baldwin last week. My answer to that is, I'm not sure it matters how well the Seahawks offense performs as the Rams should do enough damage themselves to ultimately stretch out the margin in this one. Keep in mind, Seattle QB Russell Wilson has been admirable in his efforts but hasn't looked like the same dual-threat quarterback and continues to perform behind a leaky offensive line. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings loss to the Rams last Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Entering the season most believed Minnesota's defense would be one of the best in the league but that simply hasn't been the case, due to injuries and otherwise. The Rams absolutely exposed the Vikings defense (if it hadn't been already) last week and I expect to see plenty of carry-over from that miserable performance against the Eagles this Sunday. Philadelphia continues to work QB Carson Wentz back into the fold and we saw considerable progression from him last week against the Titans. That was despite facing a Tennessee defense that has applied a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Despite their reputation, I don't believe the Vikes will have much success putting Wentz under duress here. I'm anticipating a big game from Eagles WRs Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery in particular as they should have little trouble finding open field against what has become a porous Minnesota secondary. This is obviously a bit of a desperation spot for the Vikings who are quickly seeing their season crumble before them. With that in mind, we can expect them to throw everything they have at the Eagles, and that has to start with their offense, which is certainly capable of operating at a high level, just as we saw last Thursday night against the Rams. QB Kirk Cousins should be able to find success bombing away against an Eagles pass defense that continues to struggle without corner Rodney McLeod. The Eagles have been much tougher against the run but the Vikes haven't shown much interest in running the football anyway and there's a good chance they'll be playing from behind for much of the game on Sunday, leading to a lot more looks for stud WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 52.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I've seen enough evolution from the Raiders offense to warrant a play on the 'over' as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Oakland certainly didn't shy away from a shootout at home against the Browns last week, moving the football at will against an up-and-coming Cleveland defines. QB Derek Carr has turned things around over the last couple of weeks following a miserable start to the season. He certainly appears to be getting comfortable with veteran WR Jordy Nelson in the slot and last week we saw flashes of big play ability on a couple of ultimately failed hook-ups with WR Martavis Bryant. I like the matchups that Bryant and WR Amari Cooper draw against the Chargers secondary this week. Los Angeles will continue to struggle to keep opposing offenses at bay as long as LB Joey Bosa is sidelined and now will have to press on without another one of their top defenders in LB Kyzir White as well. Meanwhile, there's little reason to believe the Raiders defense will have any answers for the Chargers versatile offense. QB Philip Rivers likely won't have to worry about any sort of pressure on Sunday afternoon as no team has recorded fewer sacks than the Raiders this season. Look for Rivers to have a field day slinging the ball all over the field to his talented group of wide receivers. RB Melvin Gordon doesn't get enough credit for the work he does - perhaps overshadowed by another elite RB in the same city in Todd Gurley. Oakland checks in allowing almost six yards per rush and should also struggle to cover Gordon in the passing game. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a bit of a tough spot for the Ravens playing their second straight division road game after posting an "upset" win in Pittsburgh last Sunday night. That probably wasn't really an upset at all as the Steelers continue to struggle in the early going this season. I do like the fact that Baltimore is catching Cleveland coming back across the country following a big missed opportunity in Oakland last Sunday afternoon. Baltimore continues to get healthier on defense, having welcomed back two of its best run-stoppers in LB C.J. Mosley and DT Michael Pierce last week. Now the Ravens will also get their top corner Jimmy Smith back from suspension and he should make an immediate impact against a Browns offense that probably isn't quite as good as it looked in last week's track meet in Oakland. Offensively, the Ravens have been generally solid but you really never know what you're going to get from QB Joe Flacco. The Browns defense certainly isn't as bad as it looked against the Raiders last Sunday. They seemed to wilt under the pressure of playing with sizeable leads, something they likely won't be afforded this week. A return home should certainly help their cause on the defensive side of the football as well. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jets saw their two-game 'under' streak end last week in Jacksonville but it had nothing to do with their own offense. They were held to 17 points or less for a third straight game in that loss and while the Broncos do have some holes they can exploit on defense I'm just not sure they have the personnel in place to take advantage. On the flip side, I am confident we'll see a far better performance from the Jets defense than we did in Jacksonville, noting that they'll catch the Broncos traveling on a short week to play an early start Sunday matchup on the east coast. Denver continues to struggle to score with QB Case Keenum looking more and more like he may not be the right fit in this offense, or simply not capable of being an every-week starting QB in the NFL. Some of his misses were glaring on Monday night, most notably his sideline pass to a wide-open WR Demariyus Thomas that would have likely resulted in a game-winning touchdown. While I do like some of the pieces the Broncos have in place on offense, they lack explosiveness and the ability to string together scoring drives. Note that Denver has scored 23 points or less in all three games since opening the season with a 27-point performance (helped along by three key turnovers) against a depleted Seahawks defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's little reason to expect the Giants to offer any resistance against a steadily improving Panthers offense on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. New York has been ravaged by injuries on the defensive side of the football and were it not for a number of mistakes from the Saints offense in the red zone in the first half of last week's game, it easily could have given up 40+ points. That's certainly concerning as the Giants hit the road to face a Panthers squad that is coming off their bye week. I'm not sure we'll need all that much from the Giants offense to get 'over' this very reasonable posted total. With that being said, in spite of Eli Manning's presence, I do believe the G-Men can put together at least a couple of touchdown drives, as they do draw some favorable matchups, most notably for WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. Meanwhile, RB Saquon Barkley is without question a stud and regardless the matchup should be able to get his in this contest. Note that the Panthers are giving up well north of five yards per rush this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers -6 | 31-33 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Panthers as they get back on the field following their bye week with an ideal matchup. Were it not for the Saints stumbling in the red zone early in last week's game, the result could have been much worse for the Giants. It was bad enough as it was with the Saints ultimately pulling away for a 33-18 victory. Things won't get any easier for the New York defense here as it hits the road to face a Panthers offense that continues to evolve and improve, and one that will be getting some help on the offensive line with the return of RG Trai Turner. CB Janoris Jenkins is largely considered the only good thing the Giants have going for them on defense given all of their key injuries but even he has been lit up lately. Until the G-Men find a capable quarterback, they will struggle to contend in shootouts such as the one they're likely to get involved in on Sunday. Yes, they have a ton of star power and certainly talent across the board, but Manning continues to hold this unit back. While the Panthers defense is beatable, I'm just not sure the G-Men can put enough points to stay within arm's reach for four quarters on Sunday afternoon. Take Carolina (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets +1 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Denver at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this situation sets up for the Jets as they come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last week but catch the Broncos playing on a short week following a big missed opportunity against the divisional rival Chiefs on Monday night. Denver has shown positive flashes on offense but it's becoming more and more clear that QB Case Keenum may not be the right fit. Keenum missed on a number of throws on Monday night - none more glaring than the sideline route to Demariyus Thomas that likely would have resulted in a game-winning touchdown. Note that Denver has failed to score more than 23 points since opening the season with a 27-24 victory at home against a depleted Seahawks defense. While the Broncos have been able to hang their hat on their defense in recent years, that simply isn't the case here in 2018. They did a nice job of limiting big plays against the electric Chiefs offense on Monday but still found a way to give up 27 points. While they do possess a vaunted pass rush with Von Miller and rookie Bradley Chubb, they actually rank just 19th in the league in sacks. Chris Harris is a shutdown corner in the secondary but the rest of the Denver pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Jets offense isn't going to scare anyone and admittedly has major limitations but I'm not sure they'll be asked to do too much on Sunday afternoon. Look for the defense to carry much of the load as the J-E-T-S finally bring an end to their three-game losing streak and keep head coach Todd Bowles' job safe for at least one more week. Take New York (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Falcons v. Steelers -3 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 51 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the sky seems to be falling on the Steelers right now, the fact is, they're still just 1-2-1 on the season and far from out of the AFC North race, which I expect to remain wide open all season long. But if Pittsburgh wants to remain a player in that race, a win this week is critical. The Steelers draw an A+ matchup here, particularly on offense, as the Falcons defense is quite simply running out of options due to a multitude of injuries across the board. We've seen the Falcons get lit up in three consecutive games now and things don't figure to finally work themselves out here, even with the Pittsburgh offense looking very much out of sync in the early going this season. On the flip side, the Atlanta offense will undoubtedly continue to move the football and put points on the board against a porous Steelers defense. However, there will come a time in this game where one of these teams will need to come up with a key stop to seal the victory and I simply feel that Pittsburgh is in better position to accomplish that feat. It's worth noting that the Falcons will be playing outdoors for the first time since way back in Week 1 in Philadelphia. You may remember their offense didn't look nearly as explosive in that game as it has in the last three games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Utah v. Stanford UNDER 46 | 40-21 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Utah and Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. This is certainly a low posted total by college football standards but I do believe it is warranted. Note that these two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair last year as Stanford pulled out a 23-20 victory. I believe this year’s matchup has a chance to be even lower-scoring. Utah knows it needs to tighten things up if it’s going to avoid a third consecutive loss. We saw a wild first half between the Utes and Washington State last Saturday, with both teams scoring three touchdowns. However, Utah didn’t find the end zone again after scoring a TD with six minutes remaining in the first half. On the flip side, the Utes gave up just one touchdown to the Cougars after nine minutes remaining in the second quarter, and that came on an 89-yard pass completion, something that you don’t see very often against this stout defense. Over the Utes previous two games they scored a grand total of just 24 points and seven of those came as a result of a defensive touchdown. Even in Utah’s 41-10 blowout win over FCS squad Weber State to open the season, it took a while before the offense got going. Stanford got lit up for 38 points at Notre Dame last Saturday night so it will also be looking to put forth a much sharper defensive effort here. Perhaps there was a bit of a hangover effect in play after the Cardinal were involved in a wild, come-from-behind 38-31 overtime win at Oregon the week previous. Much like the Utes, I believe the Cardinal are far more comfortable grinding things out in a defensive affair given their personnel. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Vanderbilt v. Georgia UNDER 55 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 56 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Vanderbilt and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m not expecting much from the Vandy offense on Saturday night in Athens. At the same time, the Bulldogs are coming off five straight blowout victories to open the season, in which their offense hasn’t really been tested. I do expect to see the Commodores at least offer some form of resistance on Saturday night. Even last week, when Vandy put up 31 points in a win over FCS squad Tennessee State, it still only scored one first half touchdown and was buoyed by three ‘big play’ touchdowns in the second half – the type of plays that simply won’t happen against this Georgia defense. Prior to that, Vandy had put up just 31 points in its last two games combined. There were a couple of offensive outbursts to open the season as the Commodores defeated Middle Tennessee State and Nevada in blowout fashion. However, those performances were certainly matchup-based. As far as the Georgia offense goes, it is worth noting that two weeks ago, it didn’t score an offensive touchdown in the entire first half against a weak defensive opponent in Missouri. Last Saturday, the Bulldogs scored only three touchdowns before adding two more in the game’s final four minutes. In other words, it’s not as if the ‘Dawgs have been an absolute offensive juggernaut in recent weeks. Last year, this matchup produced 59 points as Georgia rolled to a 45-14 victory. I expect the Commodores to do a slightly better job containing the Bulldogs this time around which lends itself to a lower-scoring contest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Arizona State v. Colorado UNDER 64.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arizona State and Colorado at 4 pm et on Saturday. Arizona State is coming off a high-scoring win over reeling Oregon State last Saturday but will be in tough following that performance up in Boulder this week. Note that in the Sun Devils two previous road games this season they managed to score only 41 points combined in losses to San Diego State and Washington. Against San Diego State, Arizona State scored a touchdown with around eight minutes left in the second quarter and then didn’t find the end zone again until the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. The next week at Washington, the Sun Devils put a touchdown on the board three minutes into the contest but then didn’t score another TD until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter. In other words, this is an offense that can settle into some lulls. Colorado is off to a perfect 4-0 start and has certainly held up well defensively, save for a poor showing at Nebraska. Although even in that game, the Buffaloes gave up just one big play touchdown in the second half after allowing three TDs in the first 30 minutes. They manhandled UCLA last week, allowing a touchdown halfway through the first quarter but then keeping the Bruins out of the end zone for the remainder of the game. These two teams were involved in a wild 41-30 affair in favor of Arizona State last November. Don’t count on a repeat performance here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 65 | Top | 26-49 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Indiana and Ohio State at 4 pm et on Saturday. We’ve won with the ‘under’ in each of Ohio State’s last two games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as the Buckeyes host Indiana. The Hoosiers are off to a solid 4-1 start to the season but let’s face it, their schedule hasn’t toughened up yet. In their lone true test they suffered a 35-21 home loss against Michigan State. They check in 2-0 on the road, where they have scored 62 points, but they managed only 24 points in last week’s victory against a bad Rutgers squad. In that game, they did manage to score three touchdowns, but all three came in the game’s first 21 minutes. The good news is, the Indiana defense can hold up better than it did last year against the Buckeyes. Note that in its toughest test so far, it held Michigan State to only one offensive touchdown before the final 20 seconds of the first half and only three offensive touchdowns in total in that contest – one coming on a 75-yard run to close out the game with just over three minutes remaining. Ohio State’s offense certainly wasn’t great last Saturday night but that had a lot to do with the environment it was playing in. There’s no question the Buckeyes will have an easier time getting loose in this one but I’m still not sure this is a true offensive juggernaut and we could see a bit of a hangover here off the thrilling 27-26 victory at Penn State. In this matchup, Ohio State will simply be looking to pick up a ‘W’ and move on and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Syracuse v. Pittsburgh OVER 58 | 37-44 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Syracuse and Pittsburgh at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Syracuse’s narrow loss at Clemson last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Orange travel to face the Pitt Panthers this week. Prior to getting stymied by an elite Clemson defense last week, the Orange were absolutely rolling along offensively. They should have little trouble picking right back up against a weak Panthers defense here. Note that Syracuse scored three touchdowns before the game was even 12 minutes old two weeks ago against Connecticut. In the Orange’s lone road trip so far this season they lit up the scoreboard for 55 points against Western Michigan – again scoring three first quarter touchdowns. With that being said, Pitt does find itself in a solid bounce-back spot offensively here. Last Saturday the Panthers ran into a very tough matchup and scored only 14 points at Central Florida. Keep in mind just two weeks back they scored four first half touchdowns en route to a wild 38-35 loss at North Carolina. Syracuse held up well defensively against Clemson last week but could be a little worn down heading into this matchup. Should the Orange build a lead I do feel that the Panthers will be able to keep the pressure on by bombing away on offense. Note that even against a very limited UConn offense two weeks ago the Orange still allowed three touchdowns. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas OVER 61 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oklahoma at 12 pm et on Saturday. This matchup wasn’t as high-scoring as anticipated last season as Oklahoma pulled out a 29-24 victory. I expect a different story to unfold this time around as the Sooners are absolutely rolling offensively but also somewhat vulnerable defensively. That should help lead to a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Texas’ offense certainly didn’t perform at a high level in last week’s narrow 19-14 win at Kansas State but I’m willing to give the Longhorns a mulligan for that one. Note that they had scored at least 28 points in each of their previous four games this season. Even against a tough TCU defense two weeks ago, we saw Texas seal the deal with three touchdowns over the game’s final 16 minutes. Oklahoma rolled to another blowout win last week against Baylor, but still allowed 33 points. Should the Sooners get ahead, the Longhorns should have little trouble bombing away on this defense. The Bears put up three second half touchdowns against the Sooners last week. Game flow dictated a relatively low-scoring affair involving the Sooners against Army two weeks ago. Outside of that, virtually all of their games have evolved into shootouts, with Oklahoma scoring at will. While I do have respect for the Longhorns defense, I feel they’ve caught some favorable matchups this season. Here, they run into a Sooners offense that is operating at an extremely high level. Expect a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll lay the points with the Bearcats on Saturday afternoon. Cincinnati is quietly off to a perfect 5-0 start and has an excellent opportunity to keep it rolling against an inconsistent Tulane squad here. The Green Wave are coming off a surprising win over Memphis last week but they’ll be hard-pressed to follow it up with another victory on Saturday. Note that in their two previous road games they fell 31-24 as a road favorite at UAB and 49-6 in an expected beatdown at Ohio State. This play is more about Cincinnati than it is Tulane, however. The Bearcats have seemingly gotten stronger with each passing week and are fresh off a near perfect performance in a 49-7 rout at Connecticut last Saturday. Unlike recent years, they finally have an offense that can put points on the board, with a balanced attack that has enjoyed success both on the ground and through the air. Tulane has managed to score at least 40 points on two different occasions but one of those efforts came against an FCS opponent Nicholls State and the other came last week in a game where Memphis clearly overlooked the Green Wave. In that contest scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but didn’t find the end zone between the final five minutes of the first quarter and the final play of the third quarter. They were buoyed but a trio of complete defensive breakdowns on the part of the Tigers late, something I don’t expect to see from a well-coached Cincinnati squad on Saturday. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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10-05-18 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville UNDER 57.5 | 66-31 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Louisville at 7 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Georgia Tech's rout of Bowling Green last Saturday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Yellow Jackets hit the road to face struggling Louisville on Friday night. The Yellow Jackets absolutely dominated an overmatched Bowling Green defense last Saturday but aren't likely to enjoy anywhere close to the same level of success against the Cardinals. Louisville is allowing just north of four yards per rush this season and held Florida State to next to nothing on the ground in last Saturday's 28-24 loss. The Cards' undoing in that game was a couple of big plays through the air but they won't have to deal with much of an aerial attack at all against the Jackets. On the flip side, the Georgia Tech defense hasn't been all that consistent, but I will point to its game against Clemson two weeks ago, a game in which it didn't allow an offensive touchdown until nearly midway through the second quarter. The Jackets defense ultimately got worn down and couldn't hold up in that contest but won't face the same type of test against a limited Louisville offense here. The Cardinals actually scored three quick first half touchdowns against Florida State last Saturday but couldn't find the end zone again the rest of the way and were held off the scoreboard entirely in the fourth quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots OVER 50.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This may look like a high posted total but it's not really all that high by today's NFL standards. The Colts may not appear all that imposing on offense with WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle sidelined and Andrew Luck still working his way back into form but we certainly saw positive signs from Luck last week as Indy finally 'lifted the lid' so to speak on their now-healthy quarterback. The Colts will be facing a middle of the road, not to mention banged-up New England defense - one that surprisingly held up well against the Dolphins last Sunday, allowing only a late fourth quarter touchdown. Indy does have a couple of offensive weapons that can thrive in this matchup in pass-catching RB Nyheim Hines and TE Eric Ebron. The Patriots couldn't be catching the Colts defense at a better time. Indianapolis has had to play a lot of football over the last couple of weeks and has a number of key defenders either listed as out or questionable to play in this one. Tom Brady will get arguably his favorite target back on the field this week as WR Julian Edelman returns from suspension. TE Rob Gronkowski may not be healthy but I'm not sure it matters. The emergence of RB Sony Michel last week gives the Pats another strong element to their offense. Playing at home for the second straight game following a blowout victory only helps their cause. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston UNDER 68 | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. We've already cashed 'under' tickets in games involving both of these teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play again on Thursday night. Tulsa has actually seen the 'under' cash in each of its last three games. We won with the 'under' in the Golden Hurricane's most recent contest - a 31-17 loss at Temple. It's worth noting that while they did allow 30+ points in that one, they actually didn't give up an offensive score to the Owls until the second quarter. Tempe was buoyed by a pair of defensive touchdowns in that game. The only other time Tulsa traveled this season it held Texas to 28 points, albeit in a losing effort. The Golden Hurricane defense will be facing its toughest test of the season here, but at least it comes in fresh, having just not played since September 20th. Houston also enters this game off its bye week. The Cougars offense has been every bit as good and maybe even better than advertised this season. Save for a wild game against Texas Tech, their defense has been serviceable as well, and draws a favorable matchup against a limited Tulsa offense here. Note that Houston hasn't scored more than 38 points in this matchup since back in 2011 (the two teams have met five times since). I believe they'll have to get well north of that number to threaten this total on Thursday night. It's worth mentioning that the Cougars are without RB Terence Williams, who had run for 142 yards on 25 carries, good for 5.7 yards per rush, before getting injured. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 AAC contests. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy UNDER 57 | Top | 20-37 | Push | 0 | 70 h 28 m | Show |
NCAAF Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Troy at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in games involving both of these teams earlier this season but I still believe it's the right play on Thursday night as they match up at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Georgia State has scored exactly 21 points in each of its last two road games against Troy but last year managed only 10 points against the Trojans, at home no less, and I believe this is one of the weaker Panthers offenses we've seen in recent years. Don't count on a repeat performance after Georgia State put up 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe last Saturday. Prior to that the Panthers had scored just 68 points through their first four games combined. Since allowing 59 points in a weeknight matchup with Memphis back on September 14th, Georgia State has shown some improvement on the defensive side of the football. The very next week the Panthers didn't give up a touchdown until the final five minutes of the first half against Western Michigan. Last Saturday they shut out Louisiana Monroe over the final two quarters and nine minutes of football. Troy has absolutely tightened things up defensively since getting trounced by Boise State in its season-opener. The Trojans offense has been rolling along as well but might have to rein it in a bit playing on a short week here. Note that Troy has scored just 21, 31 and 34 points in its last three matchups against Georgia State. Take the under (10*). |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 54 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Monday night as AFC West rivals the Chiefs and Broncos go head-to-head. Kansas City is of course built for 'overs' with an electric, high-scoring offense and a porous defense. The Chiefs have been lit up both on the ground and through the air through three games this season and nothing figures to change as they face a versatile Broncos offense on Monday night. Denver's offense got derailed in Baltimore last Sunday but faces a more favorable matchup at home here. Note that the Broncos lost breakout rookie RB Phillip Lindsay relatively early in last week's contest. He figures to make an impact against a Chiefs defense that has allowed over five yards per rush to opposing running backs this season. Broncos QB Case Keenum is in a strong bounce-back spot here and should continue to build on his solid rapport with WR Emmanuel Sanders against a very beatable Chiefs secondary. Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes should have a field day throwing on a Broncos secondary that has really struggled this season. Gone are the days of Denver absolutely shutting down opposing passing games. While it does boast a solid pass rush, Mahomes has shown the ability to beat whatever opposing defenses have thrown at him and I expect nothing different here. This is certainly a high total by NFL standards but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. You can certainly make the argument that this is a bigger game for the Broncos than it is for the Chiefs. Kansas City is off to a perfect 3-0 start and could put two games between itself and Denver with a win on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos have scored just 34 points over their last two games combined, checking in with a 2-1 record. The common line of thinking is that they'll have trouble keeping up with the high-flying Chiefs offense on Monday night. I'm not so easily convinced. Denver brought in QB Case Keenum in the offseason and he has certainly looked good at times this season and should only get better with time as he gets acclimated with the offense. We've already seen him develop some nice chemistry with WR Emmanuel Sanders. Note that while the Broncos struggled offensively last week in Baltimore, they lost rookie RB Phillip Lindsay relatively early in the game after he threw a punch. His presence does add another element to this offense and should serve Denver well on Monday night. Two games back he ran for over 100 yards on only 14 carries against Oakland. The Chiefs defense has been virtually non-existent so far this season and this certainly doesn't appear to be an ideal bounce-back spot for that unit. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog here. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 50 | 26-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We've seen three straight relatively low-scoring Sunday Night Football matchups to start the season but I look for a different story to unfold this week. While we were previously accustomed to seeing defensive slugfests between the Ravens and Steelers, that hasn't really been the case in recent years. Both of these teams are built on the strength of their offense right now, not necessarily by design in the Ravens case, and that should lead to another high-scoring showdown on Sunday night. The Ravens will get cornerback Jimmy Smith back from suspension in their next game, which is really a game too late as they're in line to get lit up by a loaded Steelers passing game here. We've yet to see Antonio Brown really go off, although we did see signs of it happening this past Monday in Tampa. This should be the game where AB does put up some monster numbers against a vulnerable Ravens pass defense. I also look for Steelers RB James Conner to take a more prominent role, not just running the football, but in the passing game as well. The Ravens offense has really taken off over the last seven or eight games going back to last season. While they're not flashy by any means with Joe Flacco under center, they continue to put up points on a consistent basis. Here they'll be facing a bottom of the barrel Steelers defense that hasn't been able to do anything to limit opposing passing games this season. Even on Monday night, when it looked like Pittsburgh had the game in the bag, they let the Bucs bomb away and ultimately pull within a field goal in the fourth quarter. Expect a high-scoring, back and forth affair at Heinz Field on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as yet another shootout involving the Saints, who stay on the road to face the Giants. New Orleans owns one of the worst defenses in the entire league right now - a stark contrast to what we saw from the Saints a year ago. Now they'll have to face a Giants offense that found its footing in last week's win in Houston. Eli Manning did a much better job of getting the ball out quickly and utilizing the short passing game, leading to a 27-point outburst against the Texans. Manning and the Giants offense draw another favorable matchup here. The question is, can the G-Men slow down the Saints explosive offense. After suffering a hiccup against an underrated Browns defense, the Saints bounced back in a big way last Sunday, lighting up the scoreboard in Atlanta. There's little reason to expect any regression here, noting that the Giants have had no success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. Given a clean pocket, Brees should have no trouble carving this New York defense. Perhaps no offensive player is performing as well as Saints RB Alvin Kamara right now and he is in for another big day both on the ground and through the air on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Browns +3 v. Raiders | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 51 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll approach this play with a bit of caution as the hype train has certainly left the station as far as the Browns go following last week's big come-from-behind win over the Jets in front of a national audience. With that being said, I do believe they draw a favourable matchup against the Raiders here. The Cleveland defense in particular should have little trouble slowing a plodding Raiders attack that simply doesn't have a lot going for it this season. The Browns run defense has been solid, allowing just under 3.7 yards per rush this season while they've also given opposing running backs nothing in the short passing game. Meanwhile their pass defense has been stout as well with rookie corner Denzel Ward leading the way. It's not as if they've faced an easy slate of QB's either, going up against Big Ben and Drew Brees along with Sam Darnold. While I don't expect Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield to light it up in his first career start, I do feel he can do enough to secure a victory. Note that the Raiders haven't been able to generate any pressure against opposing quarterbacks and that isn't likely to change against Mayfield. Even if they do, his mobility should serve him well in this matchup. Look for another big game from Browns WR Jarvis Landry here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 46 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. As long as the Bucs continue to play a hyper-aggressive style of offense and no defense whatsoever, they’re an automatic ‘over’ play, even against a quality defensive opponent such as the Bears. Chicago is coming off back-to-back low-scoring games but those results were definitely matchup-driven as they came against the Seahawks and Cardinals. Here, they’ll face their toughest challenge since wilting in the second half against the Packers back in Week 1. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t exactly been lighting up opposing defenses – far from it, in fact – but he does draw a favorable matchup here and I like the effort Chicago made to get RB Jordan Howard more involved not only on the ground but in the passing game as well last week. He works as a focal point of this offense. Meanwhile, Trubisky continues to build a stronger rapport with TE Trey Burton and has clearly found a favorite target in WR Allen Robinson. There are enough positives to take away from the Bears offense over the first three games to believe that they can put up some points against the Bucs. Tampa Bay will undoubtedly continue to bomb away in hopes of baiting the Bears into a shootout here. This could be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s last start for a while should he falter so we can be confident knowing that he’ll go down swinging at the very least. Note that it's been made official on Friday that Bears corner Prince Amukamara will not play on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Falcons wild overtime loss to the Saints last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals aren’t known for their offense, but they’ve performed pretty well in the early going this season and even if WR A.J. Green can’t go due to his groin injury this week, I still believe they’ll be able to put plenty of points on the board, due in large part to the mess of injuries the Falcons are dealing with on the defensive side of the football. Atlanta got torched by the Saints offense last week and will be in tough trying to slow down a versatile Bengals offense as well. The absence of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal is obviously key, but Takk McKinley’s injury can’t be understated either. The good news for the Falcons is that they have an offense capable of thriving in a shootout. Everyone was quick to criticize the Falcons red zone offense following their opening game in Philadelphia but since then, all they’ve done is go 8-for-8 ending drives with touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. With the Bengals still missing LB Vontaze Burfict, Falcons RB Tevin Coleman should have a field day on Sunday. And the Falcons have mismatches all over the field at wide receiver, especially with the emergence of rookie Calvin Ridley. Expect to see he and Julio Jones go off in this matchup with a below average Bengals pass defense. Perfect conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium only add to the strength of this play. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Bears on Sunday afternoon. We cashed a ticket fading the Bucs in their ‘closer than the final score indicated’ loss to the Steelers on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here. We certainly saw some regression from the Bucs offense in that matchup with a terrible Steelers pass defense. The magic seemed to run out for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and I really believe this will be his last start for Tampa Bay for a while with the Bucs heading into their bye week after this and Jameis Winston ready to return to the field. While I’m not a big fan of the Bears offense with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm right now, I’m not sure it really matters here as Chicago should have little trouble moving the football against a weak Bucs defense. The Bears have enough talent around Trubisky, namely RB Jordan Howard and WR Allen Robinson, to put up some points on Sunday afternoon. This is a well-coached football team that is still slowly learning a new offense. There will come a week where we see a breakout performance, and this just might be it. I like the fact that the Bears defense should be able to completely take away the Bucs already non-existent ground game and force Fitzpatrick into more mistakes. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Patriots stunning blowout loss in Detroit last Sunday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Pats always seem to bounce back from bad games, let along back-to-back bad games, as is the case here. The fact they're returning home for the first time since Week 1 certainly helps their cause. Note that New England always seems to score 30+ points against the Dolphins and while Miami has held up well defensively in the early going this season, it's worth noting it has faced the likes of Tennessee, New York (Jets) and Oakland. This will be its toughest test to date by far. Xavien Howard is a stud in the secondary for the Fins but he can't cover everyone. Look for Tom Brady to spread the football around in this contest. On the flip side, the Patriots defense has been getting gashed against the run and will be vulnerable against Miami's underrated RB Kenyon Drake. The Pats simply don't have the personnel to win games with defense right now and even against a middle of the road Dolphins offense, I don't expect to see them turn in a standout performance. Miami has enough playmakers around QB Ryan Tannehill to put some points on the board in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Oregon v. California +2 | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on California plus the points over Oregon at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. There's a concern here that Oregon may have left it all on the field in last week's crushing 38-31 overtime loss at home against Stanford. Now the Ducks have to travel to face an upstart 3-0 Cal squad that has seemingly gotten stronger with each passing game. Note that the Ducks suffered a loss in their last trip to Berkeley two years ago - last winning here back in 2014. That was when they had the services of Marcus Mariota and Royce Freeman. Last year, the Ducks prevailed by a 45-24 score at home against the Golden Bears but that was actually a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter and keep in mind, Oregon was a 17-point favourite in that contest. Oregon had a big first half against the Cardinal last week, but outside of that, the Ducks have beaten up on much weaker opponents. I'll back the Bears in this spot. Take California (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 70 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Penn State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve split a pair of ‘under’ plays involving Ohio State over the last weeks but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While this showdown certainly has shootout potential, I simply feel that the total has been set too high, largely as a result of last year’s wild 39-38 affair in favor of Ohio State. The Buckeyes defense didn’t give Tulane anything last Saturday, in what was potentially a nightmare sandwich spot in between games against TCU and Penn State. Keep in mind, a week earlier Ohio State held up well enough to earn a 40-28 win over TCU, not allowing a single point in the fourth quarter of what was a fairly tight game at the time. Offensively, there’s no question the Buckeyes are a juggernaut but they will face a tough test on Saturday night in Happy Valley. Penn State knows it will need to be sharper defensively than it was last week, when it gave up a pair of first half touchdowns against Illinois. For their part, the Nittany Lions didn’t really explode offensively until they had worn down the Illini in the fourth quarter. Penn State’s offense has been incredible, but like the Buckeyes, will be facing their toughest test of the season to date by a longshot here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee State +3.5 | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 35 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Saturday. Florida Atlantic rolled past Middle Tennessee State in last year's meeting, posting a 38-20 victory at home. Prior to that this series was all Blue Raiders, however, and I look for MTSU to exact some revenge at home on Saturday night. FAU has yet to notch an ATS victory through four games this season. The Owls have been steamrolled both times they've stepped up in class against Oklahoma and Central Florida. Meanwhile, MTSU is coming off a beatdown at the hands of Georgia, but I like the fact that the Blue Raiders have had an extra week off to recover from that physical affair. We've yet to see them play their best game this season but I do believe it's coming. Keep in mind, this is a team loaded with talent and experience on both sides of the football, and one that won a Bowl game last December, in an underdog role no less. This is a big game for MTSU if it wants to go Bowling again this year. With another loss the Blue Raiders would fall to 1-3 and face an uphill battle to six wins given their remaining schedule. I expect them to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Take Middle Tennessee State (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State OVER 48 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Texas’ big win over TCU last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Longhorns hit the road to face Kansas State this week. I thought the Longhorns did a tremendous job moving the football against a good Horned Frogs defense last Saturday. They were able to come up with big plays when they needed to and have now strung together four pretty impressive offensive results through four games, scoring 29, 28, 37 and 31 points. While their defense has certainly contributed as well, I will give plenty of credit to this emerging offense and I’m confident they can keep things rolling against a Wildcats squad that has had a tough time defending against anyone with a pulse this season. Kansas State gave up five touchdowns through the first three quarters against West Virginia last Saturday. In a previous step-up game against Mississippi State two weeks earlier it hung tough for a quarter before allowing a pair of back-breaking second quarter touchdowns. Offensively the Wildcats have had a tough time as well but will look for a spark with QB Alex Delton taking over the reins against the Longhorns. I like the fact that they’re catching Texas in a clear letdown spot off back-to-back high profile wins over USC and TCU. Let’s also keep in mind that we saw a shootout between these two teams last year with Texas prevailing by a 40-34 score. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Bowling Green v. Georgia Tech UNDER 65.5 | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in two straight and three of Bowling Green's four games overall this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. It's certainly worth noting that in the Falcons last game against Miami-Ohio last week, we saw only 34 total points through the first three quarters. Despite a wild 27-point fourth quarter, the game still stayed 'under' the number we're working with this week. The Falcons certainly haven't been great defensively this season but I feel they catch a less than daunting matchup, albeit against a Power Five opponent on Saturday afternoon. Georgia Tech has put up only 40 points over its last two games after scoring a whopping 79 points in its first two contests. Of course, the matchups have dictated the Yellow Jackets offensively struggles, although failing to reach the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter against a relatively weak Pitt defines two weeks ago was concerning to be sure. While this should be a layup for Georgia Tech, I'm just not sure we're going to see them go off offensively. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets defines should 'get right' in this matchup. The Falcons will probably look like they're going in slow motion after going up against Clemson last Saturday. It will likely take a shootout to get 'over' this lofty total - I'm not sure we'll see one develop on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |