Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions suddenly have a good thing going after delivering a home win over the Packers and a come-from-behind road victory over the Bears in consecutive weeks. Now they head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that I still consider a 'paper tiger' even as they sit at an impressive 7-2 nine games into the campaign. Last week was a good spot to back the Giants. They ultimately covered by the narrowest of margins but really had no business winning that game as their offense did virtually nothing while the underdog Texans marched into the red zone time and time again but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I'm not sure New York will be so fortunate. The G-Men have been gashed for 5.4 yards per rush this season with no easy fix in sight. There's certainly a path for the Lions to effectively shorten this game with an offense that's more than capable of staying on the field for extended stretches. Defensively, the Lions have their warts but the Giants offensive ceiling is always capped thanks to its one-dimensional nature. RB Saquon Barkley will get his but at some point in this game, I expect QB Daniel Jones to be called upon to be a difference-maker. I'm not convinced he comes through, noting that New York has totalled fewer than 20 pass completions in four straight games and has topped out at a pitiful 213 passing yards in a game this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-19-22 | USC v. UCLA UNDER 76.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC and UCLA at 8 pm et on Saturday. USC has now seen each of its last four games go 'over' the total, even though last week's game against Colorado really had no business getting there (yes, I'm still a little sour after backing the 'under' in that game). In that game against the Buffaloes, the Trojans defense came up big, holding Colorado out of the end zone until there were fewer than six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Offensively, USC didn't score a touchdown until the fifth minute of the second quarter and it will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against a UCLA defense that has given up its share of points, but has come up big at times as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times USC has gone on the road after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.9 points. UCLA, meanwhile, checks in off a stunning 34-28 home loss against Arizona and that's notable as the 'under' is 27-9 in the Bruins last 36 games when coming off a loss by a touchdown or less in conference play. That situation has produced an average total of only 50.0 points. Last year we saw a closing total of 65.5 in this matchup. The fact that game totaled a whopping 95 points and USC is on an 'over' streak has this total set higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Georgia v. Kentucky +22.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While things have gone a little sideways for Kentucky following a perfect 4-0 start to the campaign, I'm still a believer in this Wildcats squad and feel they can give undefeated Georgia a run on Saturday afternoon in Lexington. While the Bulldogs remain undefeated on the season at 10-0 and come off consecutive ATS victories as well, it's not as if it's been a completely smooth ride. Georgia has actually turned the football over seven times while forcing only two turnovers over its last three games. Remember, there was a scare on the road against an average Missouri team (the Wildcats beat the Tigers on the road two weeks ago) - a game Georgia won by only four points. The Wildcats suffered an inevitable letdown at home against Vanderbilt last week after it gained Bowl eligibility with a sixth victory the game previous. I'm confident it can pick itself back up here as the Bulldogs are obviously an easy opponent to get up for. Note that Kentucky has yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season and it can run the football (although not as consistently as you'd like to see given its backfield talent). That's to say there's a path for the Wildcats to effectively shorten this game and keep it competitive for four quarters. Note that you would have to go back four games here in Lexington - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time Georgia defeated Kentucky by more than 17 points on this field. The Wildcats defense has matched up fairly well against the Bulldogs in recent years, allowing 'only' 30, 14 and 21 points in the last three meetings in this series. Take Kentucky (10*). |
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11-19-22 | Miami-FL +19.5 v. Clemson | Top | 10-40 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Hurricanes as they look to pick up that all-important sixth win of the season. Of course, it will be an uphill battle trying to win outright as a near-three touchdown underdog but we're not concerned about the outright victory here, only that the Canes can stay competitive for four quarters and I'm confident that they can. Everything mighty Clemson was working toward was essentially trashed in a blowout loss against Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago. Credit the Tigers for bouncing back with a 31-16 home win over Louisville last week but I can't help but feel an empty feeling still remains for these Clemson players. Miami picked up a critical road win at Virginia three games back before suffering an inevitable letdown back at home against Florida State. Yes, the Canes got crushed by the Seminoles but a loss is a loss and they moved on just fine, notching a 35-14 win at Georgia Tech last Saturday. While the Canes no longer have the services of QB Tyler Van Dyke as he's been lost to a shoulder injury, I actually think his replacement Jacurri Brown is a good fit in this offense. He made the big plays when needed and showed that he could do some things with his legs as well, gaining 87 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Quietly, Canes standout WR Xavier Restrepo returned from injury a few games back and has been slowly worked back into the offense. He's capable of making a splash this week in my opinion. With that said, I believe the path to Miami success here against the Tigers involves leaning on its terrific ground attack, not to mention is still-underrated defense. It's not as if Clemson has been blowing the doors off of its opponents this season. The Tigers have topped out at 34 points over their last six games. We've also seen teams move the football on this Clemson defense, stunningly on the ground as the Tigers have been ripped for 206, 124, 263 and 150 rushing yards over their last four contests. The last time these two teams met was in 2020 when Clemson rolled to a 42-17 home victory. The pointspread would seem to indicate Miami hasn't closed the gap at all - in fact, quite the opposite - since that meeting but I believe it has and will show it on the field on Saturday. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-19-22 | Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 44 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Northwestern and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Northwestern's season has been circling the drain for weeks now and last week's 31-3 loss at Minnesota might have represented rock-bottom. I do expect the Wildcats to put up somewhat of a fight this week as they look to bounce back after scoring just 10 points combined in their last two games. Purdue has a knack for letting opponents hang around here in West Lafayette and Northwestern has won five consecutive trips here going all the way back to 2009. With that being said, this is a smash spot for the Boilermakers offense so rather than grab the points with the visitors, we'll go with the 'over' as this total continues to move in the wrong direction in my opinion. An injury to RB King Doerue seemingly opened the door for what might be a good one in Devin Mockobee. He has ran for 100+ yards in four of the last six games, reaching the end zone in five of the last six contests. Northwestern's defense has been cooked for 4.8 yards per rush this season. Of course, the Wildcats pass defense hasn't been much better, especially since losing CB Coco Azema to a season-ending injury in October. While Northwestern isn't likely to throw all over Purdue - not with its top two quarterbacks both questionable due to injuries suffered last week - I do think it can make considerable gains on the ground, where Purdue has sagged as the season has gone on, yielding 122, 179, 184 and 102 rushing yards over the last four games. As I mentioned, the Boilers give up their share of points here at home, where they've allowed 35, 0, 26, 37 and 24 points in five contests this season. The outlier came in a Week 2 matchup with FCS squad Indiana State. Take the over (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty UNDER 47 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*). |
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11-18-22 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +14.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 9:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for underdog New Mexico as it looks to play spoiler against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs have saved their season with wins over UNLV and San Jose State over the last two weeks, giving them Bowl eligibility. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown against a seemingly inferior squad here. New Mexico is a woeful 2-8 on the season and wasn't competitive in last Saturday's 31-3 loss to Air Force. The Lobos actually did well defensively to hold the Falcons to just 14 first half points but coming back on a team that can hog the time of possession like Air Force is extremely tough. San Diego State exploded for a 43-27 come-from-behind win over San Jose State last week. It seemed as if the Spartans thought it was going to be a cakewalk after two early touchdowns but the Aztecs took the ensuing kickoff (following the second TD) to the house to turn the tide. QB Jalen Mayden has been San Diego State's offense since taking over but this will be the Aztecs first road test since falling by a 32-28 score at Fresno State on October 29th. In a game that features an exceptionally low posted total, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the home underdog will be worth our while. Take New Mexico (10*). |
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11-17-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Packers | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee first half plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While all bets are off should the Packers fall behind early and enter true 'desperation mode' in the second half of this game, I believe the Titans are worthy of our support catching points in the game's first 30 minutes on Thursday. Note that Tennessee is 6-1 ATS against the first half line over its last seven games with the lone setback coming at home against Denver last Sunday. Even two weeks ago, without QB Ryan Tannehill in a primetime game in Kansas City we saw the Titans carry a 14-9 lead into halftime. In fact, they've led at halftime in each of their last four road games, with the lone exception this season being a disastrous Week 1 affair in Buffalo. Nothing has come easy for the Packers this season and I'm not anticipating anything different on Thursday. Green Bay did cash for first half bettors last Sunday against Dallas, but only went into the break tied (it was a rare home underdog in that contest). You would have to go back four games overall, not to mention four games here at home, to find the last time the Packers led a game at halftime. There's certainly a path for the Titans to control proceedings early with RB Derrick Henry in a monster bounce-back spot after getting held in check by the Broncos last Sunday. Green Bay checks in allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush this season and is severely banged-up on the defensive side of the football right now. Take Tennessee first half (8*). |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane minus the points over SMU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Year in, year out, bettors flock to the SMU Mustangs thanks to their high-flying offense. Fresh off three consecutive SU wins and four in a row ATS that's not likely to change as the Mustangs stay on the road for a second game in six days, facing upstart Tulane on Thursday. The Green Wave are 8-2 on the campaign but enter this game off a 38-31 loss as a short favorite at home against Central Florida on Saturday. There was really no shame in that defeat as the Knights are a terrific team, arguably better than the SMU squad they'll face on Thursday. While the difference between the two offenses in this game is negligible in my opinion, I believe Tulane is the far better defensive team. After giving up 38 points in Saturday's loss the Green Wave will obviously be in a less-than-forgiving mood on Thursday, hungry to end a seven-game losing streak in this series. I'll lay the short number with the home side. Take Tulane (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Ohio v. Ball State +4 | 32-18 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Ohio is rolling right now, winning five consecutive games SU and six in a row ATS. The Bobcats offense has been outstanding, but I'm willing to back the better defense in a home underdog role, not to mention the fact that Ball State can become Bowl eligible with a victory (the Cardinals will wrap up the regular season with a road game against Miami-Ohio). Ball State not surprisingly suffered a letdown last week at Toledo after winning outright in an underdog role at Kent State the week previous. As I mentioned, the Cardinals can play some defense, allowing 4.2 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season. In stark contrast, Ohio has yielded 4.4 yards per rush (with that number rising to 5.0 on the road) and 8.4 yards per pass play. There's a path for the Cardinals to effectively shorten this game and keep the red hot Ohio offense off the field as Ball State boasts one of the best running backs in the MAC this season in Carson Steele. He's gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for a whopping 390 yards while delivering four touchdowns in the last two games alone. The only two occasions where Steele didn't rush for over 100 yards this season came in a blowout loss at Tennessee (in which he had only 11 rush attempts) and a 44-38 win over Northern Illinois in which he found the end zone three times. Here, we'll note that Ohio is a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games after consecutive double-digit wins in-conference, as is the case here. Take Ball State (8*). |
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11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. One thing we know when it comes to the Commanders (or the Football Team as I still prefer to call them) is they love to play for their quarterback Taylor Heinecke. The same goes for head coach Ron Rivera - the very definition of a 'player's coach'. While it's been another trying season in Washington, winning only four of nine games to date, this team continues to play competitive football, going 2-0-1 ATS since Heinecke took over for an ineffective Carson Wentz. The first matchup between these two teams was no contest as the Eagles rolled to a 24-8 victory in Washington. I did like the way the Commanders defense played in that contest, however, and really all season long, only allowing more than 25 points on one occasion. You would have to go back six games to find the last time they gave up more than 21 points. Needless to say that's worth noting given the lofty pointspread here. Philadelphia is in danger of coming out a little sleepy here in my opinion, still undefeated on the season and having not played since a week ago Thursday, when it was never really challenged in a 29-17 win in Houston. Note that the Eagles took last year's meeting between these two teams here in Philadelphia by 'only' 10 points. I say 'only' because Washington couldn't have played much worse in that game, gaining only 63 rushing yards on 21 attempts while completing 20-of-31 passes for 174 yards. The Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards and 281 passing yards in that contest. Again, they won by only 10 points. I'm confident the revenge-minded Commanders can close the gap in many regards on Monday and ultimately give the Eagles a bit of a scare at the very least. Only twice in the last three seasons have we seen the Eagles come off five or six ATS wins in their last seven games and on both occasions they failed to cover the spread in their next game. That's the situation here and I look for the Commanders to stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. While the Chargers inexplicably enter this game with the superior overall record to that of the 49ers, I don't believe they're the better team, at least not given all of the injury blows they've been dealt. The Niners have had their share of key injuries as well but their depth has shone through and they're off their bye week on Sunday, set up in a smash spot offensively. I say this is a smash spot because the Chargers have been horrid against the run, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush. Needless to say, the Niners can run the football as well as any team in the league, especially with RB Christian McCaffrey even more acclimated with the offense off the bye. I'm also convinced the Niners can get creative with their passing attack in this matchup as well. We've seen the Chargers frustratingly stray away at times from their best all-around offensive player, RB Austin Ekeler, at least in terms of their ground attack. Playing from behind doesn't suit this team particularly well missing its top two receiving threats in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even against an injury-plagued Falcons defense last Sunday, the Chargers were only able to muster 20 points on 245 passing yards (those came on 43 pass attempts). Take San Francisco (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I believe this sets up as a smash spot for the 49ers offense against a Chargers defense that has been plagued by a number of key injuries and absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush this season. Coming off their bye week and with all of their weapons healthy, including all-world o-lineman Trent Williams, the potential is there for Kyle Shanahan's offense to go off in this spot. I'll play the first half 'over' only as I do think there's a good chance the game becomes lopsided, in which case the Chargers would likely stray away from their effective ground game with RB Austin Ekeler while the 49ers could elect to take the air out of the football. The Niners opened the season with their first four games totalling just 20, 10, 20 and 20 first half points. Since then, their last three contests have reached 35, 27 and 24 points in the first half. Relatively high-scoring first halves have been commonplace for the Chargers this season as their games have reached 17, 23, 34, 38, 23, 38 and 24 points in the first 30 minutes. We can't ignore the Niners defensive injuries, which are numerous, opening the door for the Chargers to at least scheme up positive plays early in this contest. Again, my concern is that the visitors get forced to move away from a more balanced attack as the game progresses, noting that they're without their two top receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Colts v. Raiders -4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Indianapolis at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure that any team has more pent up frustration than the Raiders entering this week's 'get right' matchup with the spiralling Colts at Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas blew another game in Jacksonville last Sunday, jumping ahead early before going stagnant offensively in the second half in an eventual 27-20 loss. The good news is, this week's opponent is far worse off, as hard as that is to believe. The Colts named Jeff Saturday head coach in a move straight out of left field earlier in the week. While some will buy into Saturday's 'ra-ra, can-do' attitude, I'm not buying it. The talent isn't there on either side of the football but particularly on offense with Sam Ehlinger starting in place of an ineffective Matt Ryan. Ehlinger couldn't have been any worse in last week's road loss against the Patriots. While RB Jonathan Taylor is back this week, there's nothing special about his matchup as the Raiders are capable of containing opposing running backs. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels likely isn't long for the job - called out yet again after last week's seemingly clueless play-calling against the Jaguars. With that being said, I do think the Raiders rise to the occasion as a team, knowing that they won't be back home again until December 4th. The potential is still there with this team, as we saw in an earlier three-game stretch that saw them win and cover at home against the Broncos and Texans and nearly upset the Chiefs (in a one-point loss) on Monday Night Football in Kansas City. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans aren't shying away from handing rookie RB Dameon Pierce a heavy workload as the centerpiece of their offense and that should pay dividends against a Giants defense that has given up a whopping 5.4 yards per rush this season. Houston's offense also gets back underrated WR Nico Collins for this one while it remains to be seen whether Brandin Cooks will return to the field or not. Regardless, I do think the Texans can make some headway, likely playing catch-up most of the day on Sunday. Speaking of bad run defenses, Houston has arguably been even worse than New York in that department. No team has given up more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns this season. That opens the door for another monster performance from Giants RB Saquon Barkley here. Of course, the Giants offense goes as Barkley goes and off their bye week I'm confident they'll get back on track here. Note that prior to losing 27-13 in Seattle last time out (we won with the Seahawks in that game), New York had scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even with a limited passing game, there's reason to believe Daniel Jones can have a one-off breakout performance against a Texans pass defense that has been flamed for 48-of-64 passing over their last three contests. Take the over (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns seem like they're always good for one stunner of an upset road win each season and I think this could be it on Sunday in Miami. We successfully faded the Dolphins last Sunday as they won but didn't cover against the Bears in Chicago. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well again as I feel the Browns match up well in a number of areas. There's still time for a bit of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland in advance of Deshaun Watson's impending return to the field in Week 13. I haven't always been high on QB Jacoby Brissett but he did win me over when he last took the field with the Browns in their impressive Monday night win over division-rival Cincinnati two weeks ago. The bye week helped Cleveland get healthier with RG Wyatt Teller among those returning for this week's game - giving a boost to an already terrific Browns ground attack. On the defensive side of the football, Cleveland is expected to have CB Denzel Ward back. While the Browns don't have anyone capable of neutralizing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, even if he does go off (again) there's no guarantee Miami can score enough, or make enough stops on defense to secure the cover. The Miami defense continues to play on without three key pass stoppers in corners Byron Jones and Nik Needham and safety Brandon Jones. Xavien Howard has been able to stay in the lineup but he's dealt with injuries to both groins all season long. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 6-21 ATS in its last 27 home games coming off a win by three points or less, outscored by 4.4 points on average in that situation. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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11-12-22 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-43 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel San Diego State's 32-28 loss to Fresno State two games back served as a 'watershed moment' for the team. The Aztecs leaned heavily on their defense last Saturday, prevailing by a 14-10 score over UNLV (we won with Rebels ATS in that game). With a severely disjointed offense, San Diego State will likely need to continue to ride its defense hard down the stretch and I think it's catching San Jose State at the right time here, as the Spartans are likely in for a letdown after scoring 35 and 28 points over their last two games. San Jose State can play some defense as well. The Spartans have incredibly held six of eight opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in six of their eight contests. Noting that last year's meeting between these two teams produced a grand total of just 32 points, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' again here, even as we work with a relatively low number. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-22 | California v. Oregon State -13.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 40 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 9 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for Oregon State as it returns to Corvallis with an extra day of preparation time following last Friday's tough 24-21 loss at Washington. We won with the 'under' in that narrow defeat at the hands of the Huskies in Seattle but won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Beavers here. California checks in off a spirited 41-35 loss at rival USC. The Bears were obviously up for that showdown, turning in one of their best performances of the season, albeit in a losing effort. I question whether Cal gets back up to the same level for this one, noting that it enters on the heels of five straight losses, with its season effectively circling the drain with slim hopes of gaining Bowl eligibility (it needs to win its final three games). Note that Cal is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS victory while Oregon State has reeled off 10 consecutive ATS victories here at home. Take Oregon State (10*). |
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11-12-22 | Washington v. Oregon UNDER 73 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Oregon at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Oregon's most recent home game - a 45-30 win over UCLA three weeks ago. Since then, we've seen the Ducks defense get tuned up in lopsided wins over California and Colorado. While Washington will offer a much tougher challenge, I'm confident the Ducks 'D' will be up for it on Saturday. It's a similar story with the Washington defense as it has seemingly been getting stronger as the season has gone on. Last week, we won with the 'under' in the Huskies narrow 24-21 home win over Oregon State. It has had an extra day to prepare for Oregon with that most recent contest being played on a Friday night. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series to find the last time the Ducks hung 40+ points on the Huskies and as electric as this Oregon offense has been, I don't see that happening here either. We like to play Washington 'overs' in games where it is likely to jump out to a sizable lead, as that tends to be when the Huskies defense sags. In what has the potential to be a relatively competitive affair all the way on Saturday, I'll go the other way and back the 'under'. Take the under (8*). |
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11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 59.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Florida at 4 pm et on Saturday. South Carolina's offense got off to a roaring start this season, scoring 30+ points in four of its first five games. That had a lot to do with a very manageable non-conference schedule, however. Since then, the Gamecocks have put up 24, 30, 10 and 38 points with the latter performance coming against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida's defense has been ripped by the likes of Tennessee and Georgia but there's no shame in that. Outside of those two poor performances, the Gators 'D' has held up reasonably well and I'm confident it can stand up against what I still consider to be a fading Gamecocks offense (note that South Carolina gained four extra possessions thanks to turnovers last week and still scored 'only' 38 points against an awful Vandy defense). Florida is coming off a 41-point outburst in a win over Texas A&M last week but I don't think this is an offense built to deliver those type of point explosions on a regular basis. Note that the Gators have been held to 18 or fewer pass completions in five consecutive games, despite trailing most of the way in two of those contests. While the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, those games topped out at 66 points so not all that much higher than the number we're dealing with here. Also note that only three of those five contests surpassed Saturday's total (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-22 | Purdue +6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in Purdue's ugly home loss against Iowa last Saturday as the Boilermakers couldn't get anything going offensively in an eventual 24-3 loss. Plenty of bettors got burned with Purdue as a home favorite in that spot and will want no part of the Boilers as they hit the road to face Illinois here. That's precisely what makes Purdue so attractive as we catch a generous helping of points in a stadium where the Boilers haven't lost since way back in 2010. Illinois is in bounce-back mode as well following a stunning home loss against Michigan State last week. While there have been some dominant defensive performances along the way, I think there have also been some 'smoke and mirrors' involved in the Illini's impressive 7-2 start to the campaign. For Purdue, it's getting down to crunch time as it looks again to gain Bowl eligibility with that elusive sixth win following back-to-back losses against Wisconsin and Iowa, as mentioned. Note that Purdue checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Illinois is a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Purdue (10*). |
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11-11-22 | Fresno State v. UNLV +10 | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State has won four straight meetings in this series - its longest winning streak all-time since the first matchup between these two squads back in 1996. I look for the Runnin' Rebels to give the Bulldogs all they can handle on Friday, however, as UNLV looks to make a final push toward a Bowl game. To earn Bowl eligibility, the Rebels need two wins in their final three games. While that looks manageable on paper, a win here would all but assure it of a spot with games against Hawaii and Nevada remaining. We won with the Rebels plus the points against San Diego State last Saturday. In that game, UNLV welcomed back its starting quarterback and running back and effectively shortened the game, leaning on its defense to stay competitive and ultimately earn the cover (which I realize meant nothing to the players in the grand scheme of things). It was a solid effort that should provide some confidence as it tries to finally snap its four-game skid here against Fresno State. The Bulldogs got off to an awful start this season but have since reeled off four straight victories and need just one more win to become Bowl eligible. They scored 55 points in a rout of lowly Hawaii last week but that doesn't change the fact that it's been a struggle for the most part offensively, even with QB Jake Haener healthy, as he was last week. Keep in mind, just two games back they forced five turnovers against aforementioned San Diego State but still needed all of the offense they could muster in a 32-28 win. The fact that they allowed 28 points against a punchless, dare I say broken Aztecs offense was telling. Here, we'll note that Fresno State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 31+ points in consecutive contests heading in. Meanwhile, UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when coming off a SU road loss but ATS cover, as is the case here. Take UNLV (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 66.5 | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and USC at 9:30 pm et on Friday. After getting involved in three straight high-scoring shootouts - two resulting in victories - I can't help but feel the Trojans are looking to catch their breath in what should be a layup against lowly Colorado on Friday. USC needed all the offense it could get in posting wild wins over Arizona and California over the last two weeks. Here, it finally finds itself back in a 'name your score' type of contest against a Buffaloes squad licking its wounds off a 49-10 dismantling at the hands of Oregon last Saturday. Colorado has been held to 20 or fewer points in eight of nine games this season with the only outlier coming in a 42-34 loss to Arizona State two weeks ago - a game where the Buffaloes still mustered only 359 total yards of offense. While USC's offense has been rolling along, there has been an apparent ceiling with it topping out at 45 points over its last eight games (it did score 66 in its season-opener against Rice). I'm not convinced that will be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total as Colorado isn't likely to end many drives with 7's against a talented Trojans defense that should be in a foul mood after allowing 35 points against an oft-punchless Cal offense last Saturday. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series, all the way to 2014, to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 66 total points (which is the posted total at the time of writing). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 the last three times Colorado has come off consecutive losses against Pac-12 opponents in which it yielded 31+ points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in USC's last six contests after gaining 450+ total yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over Cincinnati at 8 pm et on Friday. Cincinnati has taken five straight meetings in this series and you would have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time East Carolina won a road game against the Bearcats. With that being said, I believe the Pirates have as good a shot at staging an upset as they have in years on Friday night as they look to pull even with the Bearcats at 7-3 overall. While Cincinnati was battling it out in a taxing 20-10 home win over Navy this past Saturday, East Carolina was home and cool on its bye week following three consecutive victories, culminating with a 27-24 road upset win over BYU the Friday previous (we won with the 'under' in that game). While known for their offensive prowess, the Pirates can play some defense as well, as we saw down the stretch in that critical win over the Cougars in hostile territory. This isn't the same Cincinnati squad we've seen in years' past as there's no Desmond Ridder to lean on at quarterback and it has shown as the Bearcats have topped out at 29 points over their last four games, failing to reach 300 passing yards in any of their last five contests. That's fine if the running game is rolling but that's not the case with Cincinnati right now as it has gained just 95 yards on 37 rush attempts over the last two games. I like ECU's chances of orchestrating long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Friday. Note that the Pirates check in 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog while Cincinnati is a woeful 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests after committing one or less turnovers in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take East Carolina (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. There was reason to be optimistic about Memphis' Bowl chances entering the 2022 campaign. The Tigers opened with a tough matchup on the road against Mississippi State but from there, reeled off four straight wins and certainly appeared to be in the driver's seat in the AAC. Since then, however, the Tigers haven't gotten any breaks on their way to four consecutive losses. I'm not ready to write off Memphis just yet. Of those four losses, only two came by more than two points and none by more than 10 points with the Tigers putting up 28+ points themselves in all four contests. They face an uphill battle needing two wins in their final three games to gain Bowl eligibility but there's certainly a path to get there. It has to start with a win over Tulsa on Thursday. This has been a fairly disastrous season for the Golden Hurricane, due in part to an injury to QB Davis Brin. Even if Brin is good to go for this game, there's no guarantee Tulsa will be able to put enough points on the board to stay in contention for four quarters. Last week's two-touchdown defeat at home against Tulane illustrated how the season has gone for Tulsa as it failed to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half - after the Green Wave had already jumped ahead 17-3. It never found the end zone again after that late first half score. Keep in mind, this is a Golden Hurricane squad that at one point gave up four touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch against Navy and it's methodical triple-option attack earlier this season. They'll certainly have their hands full with Memphis' offense which is led by a baller in QB Seth Henigan. Tulsa has a good one in WR Keylon Stokes but I expect Memphis to give him plenty of attention in this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane will be trying to win consecutive meetings in this series for the first time since reeling off four straight wins over Memphis from 2005 to 2010. The two teams have met seven times since then with Memphis going 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in this series over that stretch, with those two victories coming by scores of 40-20 and 41-14. Take Memphis (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in both of these teams' games last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Bulls and Chippewas match up on Wednesday. Buffalo turned the football over three times in its 45-24 road loss against Ohio last week. Interestingly, the Bulls have forced a whopping eight turnovers over their last two games yet still scored 'only' 58 points combined in those contests. You would have figured all of those extra possessions would lead to more of a points explosion. Here, they'll be facing a Central Michigan squad that will be ultra-focused on taking care of the football after turning it over a whopping eight times itself over its last two games. It's also interesting to note that despite the Chips giving their last two opponents all of those extra possessions they 'only' gave up 56 points over those two games. Both teams want to run the football. Note that Buffalo hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since back on September 10th against FCS squad Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Central Michigan hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since Week 1 against Oklahoma State when it was in comeback mode for most of the game and racked up 424 yards through the air. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road after a road loss against a MAC opponent, resulting in an average total of just 50.1 points in that situation. The 'under' is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six games after their previous two contests totalled 60+ points. CMU has seen the 'under' cash four of the last times it has come off a game where it lost the turnover battle by at least two. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-22 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +2.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the Redhawks as they come off their bye week knowing they need two victories in their final three games to earn Bowl eligibility. Anything other than a Bowl appearance would be a disappointment after they not only reached one but defeated North Texas in that contest last December. Miami-Ohio's offense hasn't put up the same numbers it did a year ago although it's worth noting that unit didn't really get rolling until November. Ohio has reeled off four straight victories, making it six on the season so it has already gained Bowl eligibility. I didn't come away overly impressed despite the lopsided nature of its 45-24 win over Buffalo last week. The Bulls offered very little defensive resistance in that game but I expect Miami-Ohio to provide a much more difficult challenge in that regard here. I mentioned that the Redhawks offense didn't really get rolling until November last season. That's been par for the course as Miami-Ohio checks in 77-51 ATS in its last 128 games played in the second half of the season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 points along the way. Here, the Redhawks will be playing with revenge after dropping a tough 35-33 decision on the road against Ohio last year. They were actually shut out in the entire first half in that game and couldn't find any semblance of a ground game, but still hung in there and lost by 'only' two points. Note that the underdog has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series (last year Ohio was a +7 home underdog). Here, we'll also note that the Bobcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite while Miami-Ohio checks in a profitable 5-3 ATS in its last eight games after losing two of its last three contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Miami-Ohio (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half ‘under’ between Baltimore and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense and both confident off wins last week, not looking to relinquish the momentum here, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring first half on Monday night in New Orleans. Note that the first half ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 with Baltimore coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average first half total of just 13.3 points. Meanwhile, the first half ‘under’ is 11-3 with the Saints listed as an underdog over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average first half total of 19.9 points in that spot. Without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman - their two biggest offensive threats apart from Lamar Jackson - I look for the Ravens to take a more methodical approach on offense, at least early in this game. Meanwhile, the Saints will be wary of QB Andy Dalton's tendency to turn the ball over (remembering that ugly Thursday night loss in Arizona two games back) against an opportunistic Ravens defense. I'm confident we'll see the Saints offense run through RB Alvin Kamara for the most part on Monday, noting that the Ravens have yielded 4.4 yards per rush this season. New Orleans best chance at winning this game likely comes from churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten the game and give Jackson as few opportunities as possible to make an impact. Take the first half ‘under’ (10*). |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions home loss to the Dolphins last week and were fortunate to do so as Detroit's offense was non-existent for the entire second half. Here, both teams know exactly what to expect from their opponent in this divisional showdown. The Packers defense has been putting the clamps on opposing passing games but has proven vulnerable against the run. Detroit quite simply hasn't shown any tendency to stick with the run, abandoning it on a weekly basis, albeit somewhat game script dependent. Detroit's defense didn't have any answers for the Dolphins multi-pronged offensive attack last week but catch a break here, facing a depleted Packers offense that hasn't been able to get it going for any sustained periods this season. Last year's two matchups in this series were of the high-scoring variety. I think we see a different story here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-05-22 | California v. USC UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting involved in consecutive track meets on the road against Utah and Arizona, I look for USC to 'manage' this very winnable matchup with Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears are mired in another trying campaign having lost four in row entering Saturday's matchup. They've had only two breakout performances offensively, one of those coming against FCS squad Cal-Davis and the other against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, who boast one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 39-21 in Cal's last 60 road games following an 'over' result, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 52.9 points in that spot. The 'under' is also 28-14 in USC's last 42 contests after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, which is also the situation here, resulting in 54.9 total points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-22 | UNLV +5.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 7 pm et on Saturday. San Diego State has been fairly high on my fade list this season and I see this as another fine opportunity to do so as the Aztecs face UNLV on Saturday. The Runnin' Rebels are licking their wounds on the heels of three straight losses following a 4-1 start to the campaign. Injuries have had something to do with their slide but the guys that are healthy need to start showing up and I'm confident they will off the bye week. If ever there was a perfect example of how far the Aztecs have fallen it wast last week's fall-from-ahead loss against Fresno State. San Diego State teams of the past would have had no trouble putting that game away with a 28-10 late in the third quarter. But this year's Aztecs squad can't run the football and control the clock the way previous editions have been able to. It seems that the more QB Jalen Mayden is asked to do the more trouble he gets into. With that being said, Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister certainly wasn't the answer under center either. All told, this is a San Diego State team that struggles to do the little things well, including playing fundamentally-sound defense and I expect the Rebels to take advantage here, even with QB Doug Brumfield still sidelined with a concussion. Keep in mind, Cam Friel was last year's top passer for the team while Harrison Bailey is a Tennessee transfer that most thought would be the starter this year heading into the season. With an extra week of practice I do think we'll see a sharper performance from the UNLV offense here. Take UNLV (10*). |
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11-05-22 | Troy v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisiana plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday. Troy enters this game on the heels of five straight victories but I look for the Trojans to get tripped up on Saturday afternoon. We missed with Louisiana last week as the Ragin' Cajuns got off to a dreadful start on the road against Southern Miss and could never recover, even though they did put up a fight in the second half, ultimately closing the gap (to a certain extent) late. When we last saw Louisiana here at home it routed Arkansas State by a 38-18 score two games back. That marked the team's third straight ATS victory. Troy has an incredible defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Trojans have manhandled opposing ground attacks but the Ragin' Cajuns have been rolling the ball downhill in that regard, running for 174, 109, 206 and 103 yards over their last four games, with the two higher totals coming here at home. Here, we'll note that Troy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine games following a win in conference play. Louisiana has cashed ATS each of the last three times it has come off a loss in-conference, which is the situation here. Take Louisiana (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 51 | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in heart-breaking fashion in Penn State's eventual lopsided defeat at the hands of Ohio State last Saturday. After a low-scoring first three quarters, things went off the rails in the final frame. It happens. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. It is noteworthy that Penn State allowed just one Ohio State touchdown until over midway through the fourth quarter in last week's contest. It wasn't until the Nittany Lions were forced to abandon their running game in comeback mode late that mistakes started happening and the Buckeyes capitalized. I do still feel that Penn State has an elite defense. Even in a rout at the hands of Michigan three games back, the Nittany Lions gave up just one touchdown in the entire first half. Offensively, Penn State has a bit of a 'feast-or-famine' nature. This is a tougher matchup than it might appear on paper against the 3-5 Hoosiers. Indiana recently held Michigan to just two touchdowns in the game's first 50 minutes and its defense certainly wasn't to blame in last week's loss at Rutgers as it gave up just two offensive touchdowns and only three offensive scores in total (the Scarlet Knights added an interception returned for a touchdown) in a 24-17 defeat. Offensively, the Hoosiers could only muster one offensive touchdown in that entire game with their other notable score coming on a game-opening kick return touchdown. This is a big game for both teams, albeit for different reasons and noting that last year's matchup totalled only 24 points in a Penn State shutout victory, we'll back the 'under' here. Take the under (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU OVER 69 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and TCU at 12 noon et on Saturday. I don't have a lot of faith in either of these defenses. Texas Tech's offense took a breather last week against Baylor, putting up only 17 points in a 28-point rout. Perhaps the Red Raiders can be excused for that poor performance after they had scored 37, 28, 31 and 48 points over their previous four games. I certainly expect them to light up a TCU defense that has had little to do with the team's perfect 8-0 start. The Horned Frogs have given up fewer than 28 points only twice all season, first in their season-opener against FCS squad Tarleton State (in a game that totalled 76 points) and then in a blowout victory over Oklahoma (that game reached 79 total points). Save for a rout of West Virginia, Texas Tech's defense has been sieve-like this season, most recently allowing three touchdowns in one eight-minute stretch against Baylor last week, at home no less. These two teams got into the 80's in last year's meeting. Expect another shootout on Saturday. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 38 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. Iowa opened the season with four 'under' results in its first five games but that changed in a 54-10 rout at Ohio State two weeks ago. That was a bit of a back-breaker of a defeat and from there we saw the Hawkeyes essentially ease off the pressure valve and the result was a 33-point explosion in a 20-point win over Northwestern last week. Now Iowa goes back on the road to face Purdue, and I'm not anticipating the type of defensive slugfest the oddsmakers are projecting. Note that we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy in terms of high and low-scoring games involving the Boilermakers in recent years. That's continued to a certain extent this year. Note that the Boilers have baited the likes of Penn State and Nebraska into back-and-forth shootouts here at home with those two contests totalling 66 and 80 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-6 in Iowa's last 22 games after losing three of its last four games, resulting in an average total of 50.5 points. Meanwhile, the Boilers have seen their last six games go 'over' the total after winning four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 69.3 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 54.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Oregon State has had to change things up a bit on offense due to a couple of key injuries to QB Chance Nolan and TE Luke Musgrave but the good news is, it has continued to pile up victories, reeling off three straight wins in Pac-12 play entering Friday's showdown with Washington. While we won with the 'over' in the Huskies victory over Arizona the last time it played on this field, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this key home matchup on Friday. I have a lot of respect for the Oregon State defense and I'm confident it can contain an explosive Huskies offense led by QB Michael Penix Jr. Washington wants to throw the football - that's no secret - but the Beavers boast one of the best and most underrated secondaries in the nation in my opinion. On the flip side, Oregon State has shifted to a more balanced attack in the absence of Nolan under center. Note that the Beavers have completed 17 or fewer passes in four of their last five contests. Washington's defense prides itself on its ability to snuff out opposing rushing attacks, yielding just 3.3 yards per rush this season. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a game went 'over' the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). |
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11-04-22 | UMass v. Connecticut UNDER 40 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UMass and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday. The fact that this game actually means something might be one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. Yes, UConn can gain Bowl eligibility with two wins in its final three games this season and it has to start with a victory here against a very beatable UMass squad. While that may look like a cinch on paper, rarely has anything come easy for the Huskies football program in recent years. I fully expect UConn to 'play it smart' on Friday, leaning heavily on its ground attack in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives and effectively shorten this game in the hopes of dashing the Minutemen's upset hopes. UMass has just one victory this season but it's had nothing to do with poor defensive play. The Minutemen have a talented, experienced defense that is capable of snuffing out a one-dimensional Huskies offense. UConn has thrived off of turnovers, forcing 12 in its last four games alone, so you can be sure UMass's gameplan will involve taking care of the football while also relying heavily on its ground game to move the football. This is obviously a very low posted total but I'm confident it will seem unreasonably high by the time halftime rolls around in this one. Take the under (8*). |
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11-04-22 | Duke v. Boston College +11 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. While Duke was celebrating an eight-turnover fuelled upset victory in Miami last Saturday, Boston College was lamenting another missed opportunity as it turned the football over five times in an upset loss at UConn - its first ever defeat at the hands of the Huskies. Here, I do look for the Eagles to show some pride and give the Blue Devils a fight. Note that grabbing the points has been a fruitful venture in this series, with the underdog cashing at a 4-1 ATS clip in five all-time meetings going back to 2006. That's not surprising given the low-scoring nature of this series with none of those contests totalling more than 39 points. Here, we're catching double-digits with the Eagles, noting that Duke is a woeful 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games after posting a win by 10+ points against a conference opponent in its previous contest, as is the case here. Regardless whether QB Phil Jurkovec can go for the Eagles (he's struggled this season anyway), we'll grab the generous helping of points with the home side here. Take Boston College (8*). |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45 | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Houston at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. This has all the earmarks of a game the undefeated Eagles will look to 'manage' on a short week against a very beatable opponent in Houston on Thursday. Philadelphia had been held under 30 points in five straight games before scoring 35 points in a rout of the Steelers last Sunday. While the Texans are just 1-5-1 this season, they do sport a better defense than that of Pittsburgh. That's particularly true against the pass, an area where I don't anticipate Houston getting overly exposed in this one. Instead, look for the Eagles to pound away and ultimately churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten this game playing on a short week. The Texans offense is seriously hamstrung with QB Davis Mills suffering from a sophomore slump. Rookie RB Dameon Pierce has been a bright spot and you can run on the Eagles, so there's reason to believe the Texans can move the football at times and ultimately do some clock-eating of their own in this one. As a two-touchdown underdog, it's in Houston's best interest to effectively shorten this game as well in order to keep the Eagles within arm's length for four quarters. It's worth noting that while the Eagles have yielded just shy of 5.0 yards per rush this season, they're now even worse off after losing nose tackle Jordan Davis to injury. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 38-19 the last 57 times the Eagles have come off a game in which they scored 35+ points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 58 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*). |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 57 | 35-22 | Push | 0 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Central Michigan's offense has been fairly stagnant since opening the season with a wild 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State. The Chippewas enter with just two victories on the campaign. Last time out, CMU was held out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the third quarter against Bowling Green. The week previous it could only muster three offensive scores in a 28-21 win over lowly 1-8 Akron (the other score came on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown). The good news is, outside of one bad quarter against Toledo, the Chips have held up reasonably well defensively in MAC play. They draw a favorable matchup against Northern Illinois here. The Huskies also own just two wins on the season. In their most recent game they didn't reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter against Ohio - their only touchdown of the game. Prior to that they did deliver a 39-10 win over Eastern Michigan. Interestingly, that game opened with an early pick-six in favor of the Huskies but from there they scored a touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the final minute of the third quarter. You get the picture. Both teams are capable of stepping up defensively but also fully capable of going stagnant for extended stretches on offense. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Western Michigan v. Bowling Green UNDER 48.5 | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Western Michigan Broncos have had a disappointing season by all accounts, checking in with just three wins through eight games. They have a bit of a quarterback competition on their hands, which is to say no one has really been able to step up and take the reins, even though Jack Salopek was the starter prior to suffering a knee injury two games back. Last time out, the Broncos scored just one touchdown in a 16-10 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until more than midway through the third quarter. Two games back they scored two first half touchdowns but then were shut out over the game's final 31 minutes against a beatable Ohio defense. Bowling Green rolled to a 34-18 win over Central Michigan in its most recent contest. The Falcons did score just three offensive touchdowns in that victory with the other coming on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. Prior to that there was a two-game stretch where Bowling Green managed just one touchdown against Buffalo (that came in the final six minutes when the outcome had long been decided) and two touchdowns in a narrow 17-13 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until just over seven minutes were left in the second quarter in that contest. I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks in this key MAC showdown. Take the under (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While Buffalo is coming off an 'over' result, both of these teams are trending to the 'under' lately. The Bulls have seen three of their last four games stay 'under' the total and the same goes for Ohio. The only game that went 'over' the total during that stretch for the Bobcats came against the lowly Akron Zips in a contest where Ohio jumped ahead big early and eased off the gas defensively in a wild 55-34 win. Since then, the Bobcats have seen their last two games total just 47 and 41 points. Both teams want their offense to run through their ground attack. I do think both can find some success in that regard but that likely leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Note that Buffalo has done an excellent job of stamping out opposing passing games, yielding more than 21 completions only twice while having yet to allow an opponent throw for 300+ yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-6 the last 25 times Ohio has come off three straight wins in conference play with that spot producing an average total of only 45.9 points. The 'under' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times the Bulls have come off a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. High-scoring games have been the norm in this series in recent years but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns offense has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the season. After scoring 26, 30 and 29 points in their first three games, they've put up just 20, 28, 15 and 20 points over their last four. Now they face a Bengals defense that I believe is far better than most give it credit for. The Cincinnati offense gets all of the hype with Joe Burrow and Ja'marr Chase going off on a weekly basis (Chase will of course miss this game - more on that in a moment). However, the defense has been outstanding, holding five of seven opponents to 20 points or less this season. Opposing passing games have been completely stymied and it's tough to envision Browns QB Jacob Brissett changing that trend, especially with underrated TE David Njoku slated to miss. Cleveland has topped out at 258 passing yards in a game this season. You know what you're going to get from the Browns as they look to run their offense through RB Nick Chubb (and Kareem Hunt). Theoretically, Cleveland is in line to feast with the Bengals missing key run stoppers D.J. Reader and Josh Tupou. However, rookie Zach Carter and Jay Tufele have stepped up in their absence. I mentioned that Cincinnati will be without WR Ja'marr Chase for this one. His absence can't be understated in my opinion. Yes, the Bengals are saying all of the right things with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention TE Hayden Hurst capable of picking up some of the slack. But you just don't replace a guy like Chase. With CB Denzel Ward among those sidelined for the Browns, this is a major break facing the Bengals without their top weapon in the passing game. I really think the Cincinnati offense will flow through RB Joe Mixon in this game as the Browns have proven vulnerable against the run. With that being said, I can't help but feel we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives from both offenses. Note that the 'under' is 12-3 in the Bengals last 15 road games and a perfect 10-0 in Cincinnati's last 10 games after being held to fewer than 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 48-25 with the Browns playing at home off consecutive losses and 13-4 when playing at home after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Those angles make sense when you consider the Bengals will likely look to get their ground game going again, most notably Mixon while the Browns do everything they can to take care of the football, perhaps at the expense of aggressiveness in the passing game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-22 | Giants v. Seahawks -3 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Tough spot for the Giants here as they stay on the road for a second straight week and travel across the country to face the upstart Seahawks. I expect this to be a Kenneth Walker game for the Seahawks as he faces a Giants run defense (I use that term loosely) that has been torched for north of 5.7 yards per rush this season. It sounds like Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf will be good to go after suffering a knee injury last Sunday. While Tyler Lockett missed practice during the week, all indications are that he'll play and start as well. He didn't look any worse for wear in last week's rout of the Chargers. Defensively, Seattle remains a bottom-tier unit albeit with some improvement in recent weeks. Regardless, the presence of Daniel Jones always tends to keep a cap on the G-Men offense, even with RB Saquon Barkley running as well as he has at any point in his career. Take Seattle (8*). |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Patriots as they look to bounce back following an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Bears on Monday Night Football. What better opponent to get right back up for than the division rival Jets on Sunday. New York is coming off a big win in Denver last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Broncos were undermanned in that game, starting career backup QB Brett Rypien. The Jets struggled to move the football outside of a big run from now-injured rookie RB Breece Hall on a Broncos defense breakdown. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Patriots play fundamentally sound defense while not putting too much in the lap of QB Mac Jones (or Bailey Zappe should he take over at some point). Note that the Pats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games when coming off an outright double-digit loss as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points on average in that situation. Take New England (8*). |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a potential shootout inside the friendly confines of Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday. We inexplicably missed with the 'over' in Miami's strange 16-10 win over the Steelers last Sunday night (that contest featured a scoreless second half). The Dolphins jumped ahead early and then eased off the gas against a subpar Steelers squad - something I don't think they can afford to do against the Lions on Sunday. We were also on the 'under' in Detroit's rather uneventful loss in Dallas. I saw a lot of support for the 'over' in that contest last Sunday but I think those 'over' bettors were a week too early as Detroit was still nursing some key contributors back to health (and also lost Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols early in the game). St. Brown is expected back this week and should pace the Lions in what sets up as a dream matchup against a depleted Dolphins secondary. Detroit has been starved for an offensive breakout over the last two games - scoring a grand total of six points against the Patriots and Cowboys. This looks like an ideal spot for QB Jared Goff and the offense to bounce back with Miami missing Byron Jones, Nik Needham and now strong safety Brandon Jones as well after he tore his ACL. The Fins makeshift secondary did hold up alright against the Steelers, although Pittsburgh wasn't all that aggressive in that game. I expect a different story to unfold here as a banged-up Xavien Howard (he's been dealing with groin/quad injuries all season long) is left on an island against a loaded Lions offense. On the flip side, there's little reason to believe that Detroit's woeful defense can hold up well for a second straight game. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from the Miami offense in last Sunday's win over the Steelers. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked no worse for wear after suffering multiple concussions, deftly distributing the ball to his playmakers. The Lions have been getting roasted by the better offenses they've faced all season, most notably allowing 5.4 yards per rush attempt. With Miami likely to smash on the ground, that only serves to set up plenty of big plays through the air against a very beatable Lions secondary. I think there's a good chance we see this one go back-and-forth all afternoon long with neither defense able to string together many stops. Note that the 'over' is 7-3 in the Dolphins last 10 games following consecutive 'under' results, which is the situation here. Better still, the 'over' is 9-2 in the Lions last 11 games when priced as a home underdog of a touchdown or less. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 7 m | Show |
Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I see this as a smash spot for the Lions, particularly on offense, as they check in starved for a positive outcome following four consecutive losses including back-to-back road losses against the Patriots and Cowboys in which they scored a grand total of six points. Something has to give in this matchup as the Dolphins enter riding an 0-4 ATS skid while the Lions have dropped the cash in three consecutive games. The Fins will be out of their element playing in a domed environment, noting that they'll be looking forward to flipping the calendar page having gone a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight October games. There were certainly a lot of positives for Miami to take away from last Sunday night's 16-10 victory over the Steelers. However, I didn't like the way their offense stagnated and I did feel their secondary and defense as a whole looked vulnerable, missing a number of key parts and suffering yet another injury blow with strong safety Brandon Jones tearing his ACL. Keep in mind, this was already a defense that was without Xavien Howard's running mate, Byron Jones and slot corner Nik Needham. Howard could be left on an island in this one and he's been dealing with nagging groin and quad injuries all season long (he missed practice to start the week once again). While the Lions did lose WR Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols in last week's game against Dallas, all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one as he didn't actually get diagnosed with a concussion (the league's new protocols dictated that he leave the game and not return). Speaking of returning players, Detroit should have RB De'Andre Swift back for the first time in a long time after he was a somewhat surprising scratch last week. The Lions wanted to give him one more week to recover but after he was a full participant in practice to start the week, he should be back on the field for Sunday's game. That's good news as the Dolphins have had a difficult time defending pass-catching running backs like Swift (and Jamaal Williams) this season. I see this as a breakout spot for a Lions offense that is starving for such an opportunity given the way they've lagged in recent games. Remember, this was one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first month of the season. Here, we'll note that Detroit has gone an exceptional 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following consecutive losses by 14+ points, as is the case here. Take Detroit (10*). |
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10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers were written off by most following the trade of Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the firing of head coach Matt Rhule (I would actually consider that move to be addition by subtraction). Rather than hang their heads, the Panthers came out with something to prove last Sunday, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory came at home. Now they hit the road to face the upstart Falcons in Atlanta. I'm not convinced this matchup is quite as daunting as it may seem for the visitors. Carolina will be looking to secure a third straight win and cover here in Atlanta after outlasting the Falcons by a 19-13 score on the road last season. Atlanta is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and will sorely miss its two two corners in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward in this one. Panthers QB P.J. Walker was given a vote of confidence from the team this week, named the starter despite Baker Mayfield apparently being healthy enough to return (he'll be in a backup role here). The run-first nature of the Falcons plays into the hands of the team catching points, eating up valuable clock most weeks. Last Sunday, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes despite game script leading you to believe it should be bombing away, trailing by a considerable margin all afternoon long in Cincinnati. I expect the Falcons to stick to the script here, even against a Panthers defense that has been relatively stout against the run, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush on the road this season. Carolina finally got its ground game going in last week's win and I expect some carry-over here, noting that Atlanta has been ripped for 5.4 yards per rush at home this season. Look for the Panthers to churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game - that gives them their best chance of securing a second straight victory in my opinion. Take Carolina (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Stanford v. UCLA -16.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Credit Stanford for turning its season around with consecutive wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. The Cardinal were circling the drain off to a 1-4 start prior to that, with their lone win having come against FCS squad Colgate. I think their run ends here, however, as they head to Westwood to face a UCLA squad that should be in a foul mood off a 45-30 loss at Oregon last week (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Stanford defense has held up well over the last two games but those were favorable matchups, unlike this one. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw the Cardinal allow three Oregon State touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, at home no less, nearly coughing up a 24-10 lead. The week previous to that there was a stretch where they allowed three Oregon touchdowns in just over four minutes of action. There were also poor performances against USC and Washington. In that same vein, I look for the Bruins offense to go off in this matchup. UCLA had no defensive answers for Oregon in Eugene last Saturday but few teams do these days. This is about as close to the electric Ducks offense of yesteryear that we've seen in quite some time. Here, the Bruins should benefit from facing a pocket-passer of a QB in Tanner McKee. You would have to go back three games to find the last time he threw a touchdown pass and he's no threat to run, gaining positive yardage on the ground just once all season (he gained five yards on two attempts against Oregon State). Note that UCLA checks in an incredible 10-1 ATS when coming off three straight games allowing 31+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, despite the victory last week, Stanford is still just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against Pac-12 opponents. Take UCLA (10*). |
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10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a wild 49-39 loss against the Huskies in Washington two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats return home to host USC off their bye week on Saturday. The fact that Arizona was able to keep pace (to a certain extent) with Washington was no big surprise as that's been the Huskies M.O. this season - jump ahead and then let their opponent back in the game. The Wildcats have bombed away for 400+ passing yards against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Washington but I suspect they'll have a much more difficult time doing so against the well-rested Trojans here. USC is coming off a wild game of its own, falling by a 43-42 score on the road against Utah on October 15th. That marked the first time this season that USC allowed more than 257 yards through the air and I'm confident it will make amends here. Note that the Trojans have topped out at 42 points in three road games this season and I'm not sure even that crooked number would be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total. I don't think USC wants to get involved in another track meet here, knowing that Arizona does have the QB in Jayden De Laura and receiving corps to potentially pull off a stunner. Instead, I look for the Trojans to lean on their ground attack, as they often have this season (they've topped out at 25 pass completions in a game), churning out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten proceedings and stamp out any hope of a Wildcats upset. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 53-31 with USC coming off a game in which it scored 42+ points while the 'under' is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home contests after dropping consecutive games in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After suffering a bad beat with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU two weeks ago we went back to the well with the same play as the Cowboys returned home to host Texas last week. Unfortunately that result didn't go our way either as a high-scoring first half was ultimately the downfall for 'under' bettors such as ourselves. Here, I won't hesitate to take another shot with the 'under', however, as the Cowboys head back on the road to face upstart Kansas State, which checks in off a 38-28 loss to TCU last Saturday. In that loss against TCU, Kansas State lost do-it-all QB Adrian Martinez to injury. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week although it sounds like he's on the doubtful end of the spectrum. Regardless, I do expect the Oklahoma State defense to step up and carry over some positive momentum after holding Texas out of the end zone over the game's final 33+ minutes in a tight affair last week. It was the opposite story for Kansas State. It jumped ahead 28-10 in the second quarter against TCU and probably thought it would be able to cruise from there. Things didn't go as planned as the Horned Frogs went on to score the game's final 28 points in a 10-point victory. Without Martinez, the Wildcats were unable to score over the game's final 38+ minutes. Note that none of the last four meetings between these two teams over the last four years have come all that close to getting 'over' the total we're dealing with this week. The fact that the Cowboys have seen each of their last five games and six of seven overall go 'over' the total this season is a big reason why we're being offered such a generous total. Keep in mind, Kansas State is just one game removed from a contest that totalled just 19 points against Iowa State. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats were upset at home against Tulane in a game that reached only 27 points. Noting that the 'under' remains 40-23 in Oklahoma State's last 63 road games following an 'over' result and 35-17 the last 52 times it has gone 'away' off consecutive games totalling 70+ points, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse UNDER 48.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. Notre Dame is coming off a high-scoring affair last week as it rolled to a 44-21 win over UNLV in South Bend. The Irish have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season, though, and I don't expect that trend to change as they head to Syracuse to face the upstart Orange on Saturday. The fact that Notre Dame broke out offensively last week wasn't all that surprising. It was up against a sagging UNLV defense and after an embarrassing 16-14 home loss against Stanford the previous week, the Runnin' Rebels were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, I expect the Irish offense to get brought back to Earth against a terrific Syracuse defense that is in a bounce-back spot of its own off a blown opportunity at Clemson last Saturday. Credit the Orange for hanging tough for a half against the Tigers. It allowed a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then held Clemson out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the fourth quarter. The Syracuse offense has seemingly gotten more conservative as the season has gone on (and the schedule has toughened up). Note that the Orange season-high for passes completed in a game is 22 and that came in a contest where they still threw for 'only' 277 yards and scored just 22 points in a narrow win over Virginia. Throwing on the Irish is not easy task. Only one of Notre Dame's opponents this year has thrown for 300+ yards and that was North Carolina in a game where it was playing catch-up most of the way. Only Marshall ran for 200+ yards on the Irish and it took 50 attempts to get there. You get the picture. Notre Dame scored 45 points in a 24-point rout of the Orange in last year's meeting but it was a nearly five-touchdown favorite on that occasion. The gap has certainly closed this year and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Ohio State has been tearing through the opposition, scoring 45 points or more in all six games since putting up only 21 points in a low-scoring win over Notre Dame to open the campaign. Here, I do think there's a path for Penn State to stay competitive and ultimately do a reasonably good job of keeping the Buckeyes defense under wraps. Note that while Ohio State did score 54 points in a rout of Iowa last week, a lot of the Hawkeyes issues were self-inflicted. After scoring a touchdown around midway through the first quarter, Ohio State didn't reach the end zone again on offense until more than five minutes into the third quarter. Penn State bounced back nicely from a drubbing a the hands of Michigan one week previous, delivering a 45-17 rout of Minnesota on Saturday. Note that the Nittany Lions didn't allow a touchdown in that game until they were already ahead 17-3 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The Golden Gophers didn't score again until nearly midway through the fourth quarter, already trailing by a score of 38-10 at the time. Note that Penn State has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. Of course Ohio State poses a serious challenge and will undoubtedly score its share of points in this contest, but I don't anticipate Penn State getting ripped the way it did against Michigan's run-heavy attack two weeks ago. Offensively, the Nittany Lions gameplan should involve orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this contest and keep the ball out of the hands of the high-powered Ohio State offense. I do think that's well within the realm of possibility with seasoned QB Sean Clifford running the offense. The Nittany Lions were able to possess the football for 29:50 in last year's matchup and that was despite getting virtually nothing from their ground attack. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-17 in Penn State's last 50 games played at home following a home victory, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 49.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and BYU at 8 pm et on Friday. I don't think this is anywhere near the type of track meet that most are expecting as it's actually a critical game for both teams as far as potential Bowl standing goes. East Carolina is coming off a massive upset win over Central Florida on Saturday. The Knights had owned the Pirates for years and certainly entered the game playing well (including scoring 70 points in their previous contest) so that was an uplifting result for ECU to be sure. Credit the Pirates defense in that game as the only touchdown it allowed came when leading by a 17-3 score in the third quarter. ECU has certainly given up its share of yardage to opposing offenses but it has that ball-hawking ability, having forced six turnovers in the last two games alone. With that in mind, job number one for BYU's struggling offense will be to take care of the football. The Cougars have gotten away from their running game more than they'd like but that's had everything to do with game script as they've dropped their last three contests. I do think we see them go back to the run from the outset in this one in an effort to effectively shorten this game against a dangerous Pirates offense. Last time out against Liberty, BYU scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but then didn't score again the rest of the way. After that embarrassing defensive performance (the Cougars allowed six Liberty scoring drives over a 34-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter) I expect that unit to respond favorably here. This Cougars defense is too talented to struggle as badly as it has. Of course, facing Arkansas and Liberty in consecutive games is a tall task for even the best of defenses. Note that East Carolina has actually only played one true road game this season and it scored just nine points in that 15-point loss at Tulane. I mentioned this is a critical game for both teams in regard to Bowl game prospects. ECU does have what figures to be a layup in the final week of the season against Temple (it only needs one more win for Bowl eligibility) but you can be sure it would like to take care of business well before that. For BYU, things are a little tougher as they enter with just four wins and have only three games left on the schedule, including this one (it will face Boise State and Stanford - both on the road - to close out the regular season). I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair and I think that lends itself to a game of the lower-scoring variety in this case. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We can 'buy low' on the total in this matchup as both of these teams stumble into this contest from an offensive standpoint. The Ravens were involved in as strange a game as you'll see against the Browns last Sunday - a game that really had no business staying 'under' the total but ultimately did anyway (a few sour grapes on our part as we had the 'over' in that one). The Ravens were driving deep in Cleveland territory for the game-clinching score midway through the fourth quarter before a fumble gave the Browns new life. Cleveland would drive into Ravens territory before an untimely penalty pushed them back and too far for kicker Cade York to nail what would have been the game-tying field goal. Lamar Jackson attempted just 16 passes in that game - despite facing a Browns defense that was missing its best pass defender in CB Denzel Ward. Here, I expect Lamar to attack an injury-plagued Buccaneers defense relentlessly rather than continuously run into the brick wall that is the Bucs run defense. On the flip side, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense turned in an embarrassing performance against the undermanned Panthers in Carolina last Sunday. The quick turnaround might just help their cause here as they have no time to dwell on that disappointing result. The Ravens are dealing with cluster injuries in their secondary with key corners Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters both battling through injuries and expected to play, albeit at less than 100% health on a short week. With the Ravens having cashed the 'under' in four straight games and the Bucs off three consecutive 'under' results, we'll go the contrarian route and call for a higher-scoring contest than most are expecting on Thursday. Take the over (8*). |
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10-27-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-39 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Louisiana is absolutely playing its best football of the season right now and I think Southern Miss is ripe for the picking off consecutive wins - matching its longest winning streak of the season. The Ragin' Cajuns were overvalued early in the season, there's no question about that. They were favored by 11.5 and 9.5 points in their first two road games against Rice and Louisiana-Monroe and lost both contests outright. They followed up those two road defeats with another narrow home loss against South Alabama. The turnaround started two weeks ago, when the Ragin' Cajuns went on the road and upset Marshall by double-digits (as a double-digit underdog). From there, Louisiana routed Arkansas State 38-18 on Saturday. An injury to QB Chandler Fields has actually settled the situation under center with Ben Wooldridge taking over full-time. Keep in mind, the Ragin' Cajuns had been going with a two-man QB rotation, to mixed results. Suddenly Wooldridge has thrown for 546 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two games. Over its last six quarters of action, Louisiana has had a 16-minute stretch where it put together four scoring drives against Marshall and scored four offensive touchdowns in a 13-minute stretch against Arkansas State. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns defense, which was poised to be one of the best units in the Sun Belt Conference entering the season but got off to a sluggish start, has also come around. Louisiana has completely stamped out opposing passing games over the last month, yielding just 61-of-121 passing. The Ragin' Cajuns defense, which has forced 17 turnovers this season, has to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of facing a Southern Miss offense that has coughed the football up nine times over the last three games. The Golden Eagles offense continues to struggle, even though the team has won consecutive games. They scored exactly 20 points in each of those victories. QB Zach Wilcke has struggled now that there's plenty of tape out there on him - he's thrown more than one touchdown pass only once this season while tossing seven interceptions over the last three games. Unlike Louisiana QB Wooldridge, Wilcke is fairly limited in terms of his running ability. RB Frank Gore Jr. is terrific but should the Golden Eagles fall behind as I expect here, it could be tough sledding for the dynamic back due to game script alone. Here, we'll note that Louisiana is a long-term 65-43 ATS when playing on the road from October on. Take Louisiana (10*). |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bears have had but one truly favorable offensive matchup this season - that coming two games back in Minnesota (we won with the 'over' in that contest) and I suppose you could say they took advantage, scoring 22 points, albeit on just 271 total yards. Outside of that, the Chicago offense has been rather unimaginative and certainly unproductive and I expect that to continue on Monday as it draws a poor matchup against a still-underrated Patriots defense. New England has absolutely erased the majority of the passing games it has faced this season, limiting each of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer pass completions (only its first opponent this season - Miami - topped that mark with 23). Teams that have elected to stick with the run against the Patriots have had moderate success in terms of yardage gained, but not to much in terms of reaching the end zone. I like the Bears offense far better when they have a clear lead back but that's not the case right now with David Montgomery healthy. If anything, Montgomery's health is holding back incumbent Khalil Herbert who has looked like the more explosive RB. The Patriots are expected to have both QB Mac Jones and RB Damien Harris back on offense. While RB Rhamondre Stevenson has performed well, it certainly doesn't hurt getting Harris back as he's proven to have a real nose for the end zone over the course of his career. There are certainly Mac Jones doubters out there, especially given how well Bailey Zappe has performed in his absence, but I think he does just fine here, serving little more than a 'game manager' role noting that the Bears have been lit up by opposing ground games, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. While we usually look to fade teams coming off ATS winning streaks, the Pats don't appear to qualify as they've gone an incredible 47-29 ATS in their last 76 games following three straight ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Chicago checks in 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games in an underdog role, outscored by 9.2 points on average in that spot. Take New England (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. There's a lot to like about how this game sets up as a potential shootout, although perhaps not at first glance. We've only seen Steelers QB Kenny Pickett for one full game as he suffered a concussion in last week's stunning victory over the Buccaneers. In that contest he completed 34-of-52 passes for 327 yards against a pretty good Bills defense, on the road no less. While that performance was somewhat aided by game script as the Steelers trailed (by a wide margin) most of the way, there's no guarantee that won't be the case again as a touchdown underdog here. Miami is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and one of the only healthy bodies isn't even all that healthy as CB Xavien Howard has dealt with groin injuries all season long. The Dolphins defense as a whole has been unimposing for opposing quarterbacks, who have carved them up for 10 touchdown passes and only one interception. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are expected to have QB Tua Tagovailoa back from his scary concussion suffered 3+ weeks ago. He returns with a full compliment of weapons (Tyreek Hill was dropped from the injury report this week) and faces an injury-depleted Steelers defense that held up well at home against the Buccaneers last week but isn't likely to turn the trick for a second straight Sunday. Only one team has allowed more yardage to opposing wide receivers and no team has given up more touchdowns to that position this season. The Dolphins previous three home games were all played in the sweltering afternoon heat whereas this game will be played under the lights. I believe that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair than we've been accustomed to seeing here in Miami this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 50 | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games last week. I expect a much different story to unfold as they match up in Los Angeles on Sunday, however. Seattle's 19-point performance against Arizona last Sunday was largely game-script related as it led most of the way and was able to take the air out of the football. I certainly don't anticipate it being so fortunate as a considerable underdog here. The Chargers were held at bay against a stout Broncos defense on Monday night but now have the opportunity to tee off on one of the worst defensive teams in the league in the Seahawks. After being held out of the end zone for the entire game on MNF, I look for Herbert to throw for multiple scores here. Note that only two other teams allow more yards per pass play than the Seahawks this season. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler was terrific on Monday and should pick up right where he left off here as the Seahawks have given up just shy of 4.7 yards per rush on the season. The question becomes whether Seattle can inflict some damage itself in comeback mode. I'm confident it can noting that the Chargers are a bit of a mess defensively with Joey Bosa sidelined and L.A.'s run defense as a whole virtually non-existent, allowing a ridiculous 5.8 yards per rush this season. Seattle rookie RB Kenneth Walker ran wild against the Cardinals last Sunday and while we're talking about a very small sample size, he does look like the real deal. Of course, QB Geno Smith has exceeded all expectations under center, elevating the play of everyone around him in a much more aggressive Seahawks offense than we're used to seeing. This game has shootout potential, noting that the 'over' has gone 11-1 the last 12 times Seattle has come off an outright underdog win over a division opponent at home, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 18-8 in the Chargers last 26 games played from October onward, totalling an average of 54.7 points along the way. Take the over (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +1 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 24 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. NOTE: Russell Wilson has been ruled out for the Broncos. Brett Rypien will start in his place. I'll stick with the play as I'm not sure that Rypien's presence changes what Denver will be looking to do and that's churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense while leaving the rest in the hands of its capable defense. Everyone is down on the Broncos right now while the Jets, perhaps along with the Giants, are the NFL's 'flavor of the month'. We actually won with the Jets last week in their outright blowout win in Green Bay. I loved the way that spot set up for Gang Green but I think it's a much different story this week as they stay on the road for a second straight game to face the down-trodden Broncos in Denver. With New York suddenly 4-2 on the season, just one game back of first place in the AFC East, this becomes a clear look-ahead spot as its next three games will come at home against New England and Buffalo, followed by a bye week and then a quick road rematch against the Patriots. I still feel this Jets squad has some warts. QB Zach Wilson has generally been awful since taking over the reins under center, completing just 42-of-75 passes for 572 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, rookie RB Breece Hall has been outstanding but much of his success has been game-script dependent with the Jets holding sizable leads most of the way in each of the last two games. Prior to two weeks ago against Miami, New York had topped out at 98 rushing yards in a game this season. The Broncos, while clearly struggling, do still have at least a couple of redeeming qualities. Their defense remains stout. You don't hold the Chargers offense to 73 rushing yards and 224 passing yards (on 57 pass attempts) by fluke. Patrick Surtain would get my vote as the best cornerback in the NFL. Brandon Browning has been a massive find as a pass rusher on the outside. While it could certainly use some help from the offense, this is a defense capable of winning this game all on its own (note that the Broncos manhandled the Jets by a 26-0 score here in Denver in last year's meeting). While QB Russell Wilson hasn't been good by any stretch of the imagination, the Broncos play-calling has left a lot to be desired as well. They got way too predictable as the game went on in Los Angeles on Monday. I do think there were lessons to be gleaned from that narrow defeat and we'll see Denver employ a more aggressive offensive gameplan against a beatable Jets defense here. New York is certainly 'feeling itself' off last week's statement win in Green Bay (if you watched rookie Sauce Gardner's postgame interview you know what I mean). However, with young teams sometimes the highs are a little too high and I expect it to be brought back to Earth on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Jets are a woeful 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games following three consecutive victories, outscored by 8.7 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in 28-12 the last 40 times they've played at home off a road loss against a division opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Lions v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions opened the season with four consecutive 'over' results but were shut out in a game that stayed well 'under' the total in New England prior to their bye week. I think we see the 'under' cash again here as Detroit returns to the field for a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Of course the big news is the likely return of QB Dak Prescott for the Cowboys. I'm not convinced all that much will change with the Cowboys offense, at least not in his first game back, however. Dallas has the running game rolling and isn't likely to start airing it out with Prescott six weeks removed from his last game action. On the other side, I think there's a good chance we see Lions head coach Dan Campbell come out with a run-centric gameplan as he looks for his team to play 'smash-mouth' football in an effort to break out of their two-game slump, and effectively shorten proceedings against the heavily-favored Cowboys. While Dallas possesses an elite, ball-hawking secondary and a fierce pass rush that could feast on Lions QB Jared Goff if given the opportunity, you can run on this unit, noting that it has allowed 4.4 yards per rush this season. Here, we'll note that the Lions have played 6-0 to the 'under' when coming off consecutive losses under head coach Dan Campbell, as is the case here, with those contests totalling an average of just 34.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up beautifully after so many bettors were left hanging with the 'over' in the Falcons 28-14 win over the 49ers last week. I can understand why those same bettors might be a little gun shy when it comes to playing the 'over' again here. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in each of Atlanta's last three contests. With that being said, the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games while a very limited Buccaneers offense took its foot off the gas after jumping ahead 21-0 in the other. I mention that the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games as they were able to take their preferred course of action, taking the air out of the football and effectively shortening those contests. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much different game script as Atlanta projects to trail as a near-touchdown underdog against an improving Bengals offense. Let's get it straight, the Falcons defense isn't particularly good. Opponents have been bombing away on them with opposing quarterbacks facing little to no pressure in the pocket. Atlanta has yet to limit a single opponent to fewer than 226 passing yards this season. The Bengals are certainly comfortable following a similar gameplan, noting that they've attempted 32+ passes in all six games to date. We've also seen Cincinnati put up 27+ points in three of its last four games with the lone exception coming in a primetime division game in Baltimore two weeks ago. The Falcons offense doesn't get better after losing CB Casey Hayward to a shoulder injury. The good news for the Falcons is, the potential is there for them to stay competitive in this game due to a number of key injuries on the Bengals defense. DT D.J. Reader - one of Cincinnati's best run stoppers - remains sidelined. His backup Josh Tupuo is now out as well. Note that the Bengals have been torched for 155 and 228 rush yards over their last two games, which certainly plays into the hands of the run-happy Falcons here. Perhaps most importantly, LB Logan Wilson is nursing a shoulder injury. Should he miss that would really open things up for Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts, who has been a disappointment to this point, but draws a very favorable matchup against a Cincinnati defense that hasn't been able to contain opposing tight ends all season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 55 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got the injury news we wanted on Friday as tight end Mark Andrews returned to practice for the Ravens while cornerback Denzel Ward was ruled out for the Browns. Of course, Cleveland's defense has been a disaster this season, in the conversation as one of the worst defensive units in the entire league. Myles Garrett did return against the Patriots last week and contributed three tackles and two sacks but he re-aggravated his shoulder injury badly enough that he needed an MRI earlier this week. It sounds like he'll be on the field for the Browns on Sunday but whether he's 100% healthy is certainly up for debate. The Ravens are a team built for shootouts with a quick-strike offense but a defense that has plenty of holes. With that being said, they're coming off three consecutive 'under' results. That's had a lot to do with QB Lamar Jackson's inability to connect on his deep throws over the last few games. I think we do see him clean that up this week, noting that the Ravens could have field-stretcher Rashod Bateman back from injury. Regardless whether Bateman plays or not, the Ravens receivers, and Andrews, can win matchups all over the field. On the flip side, the Browns running game should feast on a Ravens defense that has been fairly soft against opposing ground attacks, yielding 4.5 yards per rush. While Cleveland QB Jacoby Brissett has been a 'game manager' throughout his career, he's at least been consistent this season, completing 21 or 22 passes in five straight games. The Ravens haven't given up a lot through the air over their last couple of games but that's only because the opposition has elected to gash them on the ground, as Cleveland is likely to do here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 62.5 | 34-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in excruciating fashion in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU last Saturday. That was a 30-23 game with minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before TCU tied things up and we ultimately saw the Cowboys convert a 4th-and-9 in the first overtime that ended up sealing our fate with an 'under' 68.5 ticket. A lot had to go right (or wrong in our case) for that 'over' to hit. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate this week as we go back to the well with the same play, this time as Oklahoma State returns home to host Texas. The Longhorns are hitting their stride defensively after securing a hard-fought 24-21 win over Iowa State last Saturday (we won with the Cyclones plus the points in that game). Meanwhile, I don't think there's really any reason to get down on the Cowboys defense, despite coughing up last week's game. That had a lot to do with the offense not being able to stay on the field in the second half. Clearly, Oklahoma State got a little complacent after building an early 24-7 lead in that game. The Cowboys defense fell out of 'attack mode' from that point and certainly looked like it let down its guard up a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Texas has performed about as well offensively as anyone could have expected to this point of the season but opponents like Alabama and Iowa State have laid out a pretty good blueprint in terms of how to slow the Longhorns down and I do think Oklahoma State has the personnel in place to make good on that. Both teams want to run the football - in fact, Texas has topped out at 34 pass attempts this season - and I think we see the two ground attacks gain enough headway to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 69.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Bruins and Ducks on Saturday afternoon. This is about as close to the high-flying Oregon teams of the past that we've seen in recent years. The Ducks are scoring at will. They most recently had one stretch where they scored three touchdowns in 14 minutes and then another where they hung four touchdowns on the board in 11 minutes - in the same game - against Arizona. The week previous they scored three touchdowns in the final four-and-a-half minutes of the first half against Stanford. While UCLA is certainly a better defensive team than both of those opponents, it's not as if the Bruins are the '85 Bears. The last time we saw UCLA it prevailed in a wild 42-32 game against Utah. That was a day where the Utes clearly weren't at the top of their game offensively, yet they still managed to eclipse 30 points. There was probably some reason for concern with this Bruins defense earlier in the season when we saw it allow South Alabama to put together four scoring drives in an 18-minute stretch in the first half of a 32-31 UCLA victory. The good news for the Bruins is that they have an explosive offense of their own. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion, as is RB Zach Charbonnet, who has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing game. Noting that the 'over' is now 10-1 in UCLA's last 11 games after committing one or fewer turnovers in its previous game and a perfect 6-0 in Oregon's last six home games following a win, I'll call for nothing short of a shootout on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-22 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -7 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over West Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday. Off consecutive road losses against Kansas State and Oklahoma State and following its bye week, it's 'put up or shut up' time for Texas Tech. I fully expect to see the Red Raiders rise to the occasion against West Virginia, which checks in off a massive weeknight win over Baylor last week. That Mountaineers win over the Bears essentially turned on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown as Baylor was driving to potentially go ahead 24-10 late in the first half. After scoring a touchdown less than five minutes into the first quarter, the Mountaineers didn't reach the end zone again on offense until nearly five minutes into the third quarter. There's no real shame in either of Texas Tech's last two defeats. Poor first quarters essentially doomed the Red Raiders in those two contests. I do feel the extra week of preparation between games should serve to help Texas Tech clean up some of its recent issues. The Red Raiders have looked like a different team in Lubbock compared to on the road, going a perfect 3-0 including an impressive win over Texas the last time we saw them take this field. Here, we'll note that West Virginia is a woeful 13-33 ATS in its last 46 games after winning three of its previous four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 46-26 ATS in its last 72 home games off a loss, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.5 points in that spot. Take Texas Tech (8*). |
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10-22-22 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech +3.5 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Rice at 3 pm et on Saturday. Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, Louisiana has traditionally been a house of horrors for visiting teams. Rice knows that as it has dropped four straight trips here, never coming within fewer than 15 points of the Bulldogs over that stretch. While this year's Owls squad has held its own, and then some, reeling off five consecutive ATS wins entering Saturday's contest, I look for it to fall short here. Last week, Rice could only muster 14 points in a field goal loss on the road against a very average Florida Atlantic defense. The Owls offense has certainly shown some regression as the schedule has toughened up - their two highest-scoring games of the season to date came back in Weeks 2 and 3 against the likes of FCS squad McNeese State and Louisiana-Lafayette. For Louisiana Tech, this is obviously a big game in terms of its potential Bowl hopes as it enters with just two victories and looking ahead at the schedule, will have only a few more legitimate opportunities to pick up wins and approach that six-victory mark. There have been positives to take away from the Bulldogs 2-4 start to the campaign. Back in mid-September Louisiana Tech travelled to Death Valley to face Clemson and stuck around for the entire first half, trailing just 13-6. Clemson took over in the third quarter but the Bulldogs again showed plenty of fight in the fourth quarter, scoring a pair of touchdowns to close the gap to 14 points before giving up a couple of scores late. Even last week at North Texas, Louisiana Tech fell behind 21-3 early but rallied to close the gap to a single touchdown entering the fourth quarter. My point being, there have been times where the Bulldogs could have folded the tent but instead reached down and showed some resiliency. I'm not convinced they'll have to be all that resilient in this particular matchup as I believe they can control proceedings. While the Bulldogs have been gashed by opposing ground games, I'm not sure that Rice has the backfield to take full advantage. Note that the Owls check in averaging just 127 rush yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush. Rice has had a tendency to look gassed following games I would term 'defensive slugfests', noting that it has gone a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 contests following a game in which both teams scored 17 points or less, as is the case here, outscored by a whopping margin of 22.0 points on average in that situation. From October on, Louisiana Tech has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.4 points in its last 69 games played here in Ruston. While the Bulldogs have had a tough run going back to last season, they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS losses this season and have been outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average when coming off an ATS defeat since the start of last season (nine-game sample size). Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
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10-22-22 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 60 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday. I think both teams have a keen interest in settling things down and avoiding a back-and-forth shootout in Waco on Saturday. Kansas certainly knows now that it's not going to hang with the big boys in the Big 12 by going touchdown for touchdown. That's especially true given the Jayhawks are without two of their best offensive players in QB Jalon Daniels and RB Daniel Hishaw. I do think the Jayhawks defense is better than it has showed over the last two games, in which it allowed 90 points against TCU and Oklahoma. It also faces a more manageable offensive opponent in Baylor this week. The Bears got involved in a somewhat unlikely track meet against West Virginia last Thursday. They've had a few extra days to prepare for this one and I expect them to come out strong defensively off consecutive losses in which they allowed a combined 79 points. The Bears manhandled the Kansas offense led by QB Jason Bean in last year's lone meeting, winning by a 45-7 score in Lawrence (we won with Baylor in that game). In fact, you would have to go back 11 meetings - all the way to 2011 - to find the last time the Jayhawks topped the 14-point mark against Baylor. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 in Baylor's last 27 games following a contest that saw both teams score 30+ points, as is the case here. After turning the football over five times in their last two games, the Bears will look to 'manage' this contest a little better, noting that the 'under' has cashed 10 of the last 12 times they've played at home after losing the turnover battle in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.2 points in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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10-21-22 | Tulsa v. Temple OVER 52.5 | 27-16 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off embarrassing losses although Tulsa has had an extra week to lick its wounds following a 53-21 beatdown at the hands of Navy. The Golden Hurricane accomplished quite a feat of defensive futility in that game, allowing the Midshipmen to put together seven scoring drives over a 26-minute stretch from the first to third quarter. That wasn't the first time Tulsa got torched in short order this season. Remember, back on September 24th at Ole Miss it yielded four consecutive Rebels touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch in the second quarter. There were also brutal defensive performances against Wyoming and Northern Illinois to open the campaign. The good news is, the Golden Hurricane offense is anything but lifeless and matches up well against a Temple defense that just got rocked for 70 points at UCF last Thursday. After jumping ahead 10-7, Temple was outscored by a ridiculous 63-3 margin over the next 40 minutes of game action. Are the Owls what we would call 'fake tough guys' on defense? The case can certainly be made for that being the case as that was the second straight game they were bullied after handling three consecutive lukewarm opponents in FCS squad Lafayette, Rutgers and UMass. Last year, Temple could only muster 10 points in a 41-10 rout at the hands of Tulsa. I do think the Owls have a little more punch on offense this year, even if QB E.J. Warner (yes that's Kurt's son) was awful last week. Jose Barbon is a standout wide receiver and I don't think Tulsa has anyone in the secondary that can bottle him up, noting that he's gone off for 237 yards on 12 catches over the last two games - against tougher defensive opponents than he'll face here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've seen plenty of stinkers in primetime action this season and it's hard to envision anything other than another relatively uneventful affair between the Saints and Cardinals on Thursday. It sounds like the Saints will give the keys to QB Andy Dalton for at least one more game, although there is an outside chance that Jameis Winston returns for this game. I'm not sure it really matters right now. While the Saints have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total since Dalton took over for an injured Winston, it's had little to do with the 'Red Rocket' as they've actually seen their passing yardage regress over those three contests (19-of-36 passing for 171 yards last week). New Orleans' offensive line is banged-up and outside of standout rookie WR Chris Olave, there are few dynamic options in the receiving corps. QB Alvin Kamara remains the focal point of the offense and while he's played well, he's not the gamebreaker he once was and his ceiling is somewhat limited by the presence of Dalton, not to mention the Saints poor run and pass blocking. The Cardinals have quietly snuffed out opposing passing games this season, not allowing any opponent to throw for more than 244 yards since Week 1 against the Chiefs. Arizona will get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension on Thursday and while he could make an immediate impact, he lands in a struggling Cardinals offense. Arizona's offensive line is dealing with injuries, leading to QB Kyler Murray running for his life a lot of the time. I'm confident in the Saints ability to contain Murray here. New Orleans QB Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined although his backup, Bradley Roby has held up alright, allowing 16 catches on 35 targets this season. The Cards have yet to throw for 300 yards this season and that's despite one game where they completed 37-of-58 passes against the Rams (they scored only 12 points in that contest). This has all the makings of another primetime game played close to the vest with both sides looking to run the football and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the 'under' is a staggering 14-3 in the Saints last 17 Thursday games and 22-9 in the Cardinals last 31 contests at home following a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Last year, these two teams were involved in a wild shootout that went Virginia's way by a 48-40 score. That game saw a closing total of 65.5 points so a high-scoring affair was to be expected. How things have changed for both teams. Virginia was involved in plenty of shootouts last year with an electric offense and a defense that couldn't get many stops at all. The script has flipped this year. The Cavaliers offense continues to struggle in pass and run blocking, and generally appears broken. They've topped out at 34 points and that performance came way back in Week 1 against an FCS opponent in Richmond. In fact, that's the last time the Cavaliers eclipsed the 20-point mark. Teams have been able to run on Georgia Tech but Virginia doesn't seem to have anyone capable of taking the lead out of the backfield, and as I mentioned its offensive line hasn't helped matters, struggling mightily in run-blocking. Georgia Tech has turned things around following a 1-3 start, posting back-to-back conference wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. While QB Jeff Sims might be the Yellow Jackets best offensive player, he's really their only true threat. WR Malachi Carter has dealt with an injury and when he has played, hasn't looked quite right. One thing we know is that the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, racking up 30+ rush attempts in all six games so far this season. The gameplan has been to keep drives (and the clock) moving, effectively shortening the game and leaving the heavy lifting to the defense. That defense has certainly had a 'bend but don't break' type of philosophy, giving up yardage on the ground but doing a nice job of snuffing out opposing aerial attacks. Only one opponent has thrown for 300+ yards on them and that was Pitt (it needed 45 pass attempts to get to 305 yards and scored 'only' 21 points in the game). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-4 the last 23 times Virginia has come off a game in which it ran for 40 or fewer yards, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 40.8 points in that spot. The idea is that the Cavaliers generally look to run the football after games where they're unable to do so. Note also that the 'under' is a long-term 53-29 with Georgia Tech coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State UNDER 60.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent games but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Georgia State has attempted 30+ passes only once previously this season and that came against a non-existent Charlotte defense. The Panthers want to run the football and aren't likely to stray too far away from that gameplan against the Mountaineers on Wednesday. They've gained 200+ rushing yards in all but one of their games this season but I think they'll be hard-pressed to get there against an Appalachian State defense that has absolutely erased its opponents' ground attacks in three of its six games this season. While two of the Mountaineers last three opponents have racked up exactly 172 yards on the ground, those two teams needed 46 and 59 rush attempts to get there. If anything, Appalachian State's offense has regressed as the season has gone on. The Mountaineers did complete 40-of-53 passes for 395 yards against Texas State last time out, but scored 'only' 24 points in a losing effort. That marked the first time this season they had attempted more than 35 passes in a game and was clearly game script related. I don't think there's any question they want to be more balanced on offense, and game script should favor a run-heavy gameplan here with the Mountaineers checking in as double-digit favorites. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 61 points but that had a lot to do with Georgia State's carelessness with the football (or perhaps more to do with the Mountaineers ball-hawking nature a year ago) as Appalachian State scored 45 points fuelled by three interceptions. This year's Mountaineers squad hasn't been nearly as turnover-happy - yet to force more than two turnovers in any of their first six games. It's been a different story for Georgia State as it has forced eight turnovers in its last two games alone and 15 on the season. That should only lead to Appalachian State putting an even stronger emphasis on taking care of the football and churning out long, clock-eating drives on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-7 the last 26 times Georgia State has come off a conference win, leading to an average total of 51.5 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We successfully faded the Broncos last week as they lost outright as a short home favorite against the Colts. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as Denver hits the road for a critical matchup against the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Bolts come off consecutive road wins over Houston and Cleveland but neither performance was all that impressive. While loaded with talent, the Chargers defense has been anything but dominant this season. They've been torched for more than 6.0 yards per rush while only three other teams have given up more touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. I believe that opens the door for a Broncos offense that has had a few extra days to perhaps sort out its issues following that embarrassing performance against the Colts. There's no question Denver has the personnel in place to perform much better than it has offensively, particularly at the wide receiver position. Defensively, the Broncos have been stout, particularly against the pass. While the Chargers could probably gain plenty of traction running the football in this one, the temptation always seems strong to put the game in the hands of QB Justin Herbert rather than leaning to heavily on their ground attack. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles has allowed 31.9 points per game while being outscored by an average margin of 2.7 points when coming off consecutive games in which it scored 25+ points, as is the case here. As poorly as things have gone for the Broncos at times, they've still allowed just 18.3 points per game and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points going back to the start of last season. Take Denver (8*). |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cowboys last Sunday as they pulled off another upset win, this time on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade Dallas as it plays on the road for a second straight week. QB Cooper Rush has been terrific in a 'game manager' role over the last four games, but game script has certainly favored the Cowboys as they've led most of the way in those contests. I expect a different story to unfold in Philadelphia on Sunday night as Rush is asked to do a little too much and upending the undefeated Eagles proves to be a bridge too far for the Cowboys. I came close to fading the Eagles last Sunday in Arizona as I absolutely hated the spot for Philadelphia, travelling across the country to face a Cardinals squad that would be easy to overlook. Right on cue, the Cards gave the Eagles all they could handle, ultimately missing a late field goal that would have tied the game. Here, I look for the Eagles to refocus and benefit from getting virtually their entire offensive line back healthy after being undermanned in that department last week. This really is an 'anything you can do, I can do better' type of matchup for the Eagles against a Cowboys squad that has admittedly played well. While Dallas would certainly like to effectively shorten this game by churning out long, clock-eating drives on offense, the Eagles defense is capable of snuffing out the run while also locking down the Cowboys receivers. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will be able to orchestrate enough of those long drives to keep its defense fresh against a multi-dimensional Eagles offense here. You can be sure Philadelphia hasn't forgotten about last season, when it got drilled in both matchups against Dallas, allowing 40+ points in each game. Look for the Eagles to get their payback here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Last season's two meetings between these NFC East rivals were wild, high-scoring affairs in favor of the Cowboys but I look for a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Philadelphia. With QB Cooper Rush in line to start for at least one more game, we know what we're going to get from the Cowboys at this point. They'll keep Rush in a 'game-managing' role as they look to leave proceedings in the hands of their very capable defense. On the flip side, Philadelphia has been somewhat 'feast-or-famine' on offense, scoring points in bunches but also going extended stretches without hitting paydirt. The Eagles are expected to be back at full strength on their offensive line and that should equate to plenty of long, clock-churning drives against a Cowboys defense that will look to 'bend but not break', keeping everything - and most importantly dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts - in front of them on Sunday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 the last 42 times the Cowboys have played on the road following three consecutive victories, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 40.8 points. The Eagles have seen the 'under' go 17-12 in their last 29 games against NFC opponents. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-22 | Bucs -9.5 v. Steelers | 18-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Bucs in last week's game as they left the back door wide open after building a three-touchdown lead against the Falcons. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate here as Tampa Bay is well-positioned to blow the doors off a reeling Steelers squad. There was some optimism in Pittsburgh entering the season but that has been all but dashed following a 1-4 start. Missing a host of key players on defense, the Steelers just don't have the personnel in place to slow Tom Brady and the Bucs steadily-improving offense here. After clearly taking its foot off the gas in the second half against Atlanta last week, and nearly paying the price, I look for Tampa to lay the hammer down here. Defensively, the Bucs are also in a smash spot against a Steelers offense that is quickly turning the page over to the future with QB Kenny Pickett starting at quarterback and rookie RB Jaylen Warren starting to usurp Najee Harris in the backfield. Pickett hasn't shown any sort of rapport with his receiving corps, perhaps with the exception of fellow rookie WR George Pickens. I don't think the absence of TE Pat Freiermuth can be overlooked here either as he's a big part of what the Steelers like to do in the red zone, not to mention a key blocker, noting that Pittsburgh's pass and run blocking is among the worst in the entire NFL. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins OVER 45 | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings 27-22 win over the Bears last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they hit the road to face the Dolphins this week. As I noted in last week's analysis, Minnesota is a team built for high-scoring affairs. We're starting to see the offense come around under the new coaching staff, consistently scoring in the high-20's in three consecutive weeks. This is another fine matchup, particularly for the Vikings passing game with Dolphins top CB Xavien Howard dealing with groin injuries on both sides and his running-mate Byron Jones still sidelined. Minnesota's offensive line has been a work-in-progress but it allowed just one sack against the Bears last Sunday and if given time in the pocket, Kirk Cousins and WR Justin Jefferson should feast on Miami's banged-up secondary on Sunday. On the flip side, rookie QB Skylar Thompson will start for the Dolphins. The fact that head coach Mike McDaniel is willing to turn to Thompson is telling as all indications are that veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater likely could have played. I think McDaniel knows Thompson gives the Fins a better chance of pushing the football down the field against a very beatable Vikings secondary. Miami's dynamic WR duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been relatively quiet in recent weeks but this sets up as a smash spot, should they be able to shake off their nagging injuries. There's nothing imposing about the Vikes defense as it is highly-susceptible to the deep pass (it allows 7.8 yards per pass attempt) and hasn't been able to stop the run with any consistency (yielding 4.4 yards per rush). Last week was the first time Minnesota held an opposing team under 100 rushing yards but that's only because the Bears were trailing much of the game and didn't stay committed to running the football as a result. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 21-5 the last 26 times the Vikings have played on the road following a home win in which they didn't cover the spread and 10-1 in their last 11 games following an ATS loss of any kind. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times Miami has come off an ATS defeat, which is also the situation here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. As I mentioned last week, making the decision to bet for or against the Jaguars when they play at home isn't rocket science. You back them when they host the Colts and fade them against everyone else. That strategy worked to perfection once again last Sunday as they fell as a considerable favorite at home against the Texans. Here, we find the Jags back on the road, where they're just 1-2 so far this season but their two losses were competitive affairs against the Commanders and still-undefeated Eagles. Of course, the Jags already have a win over these Colts to their credit. We successfully backed Jacksonville in its 24-0 stomping of Indy back in Week 2. In fact, we've been involved in all five Colts games this season in some shape or form, including two of the last three weeks when we successfully backed them in upset wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. I won't hesitate to go the other way this week, however, as they return home in a favored role against division-rival Jacksonville. Indy's offense remains broken. QB Matt Ryan has shown no ability whatsoever to push the ball down the field, wasting the talent of WR Michael Pittman in the process. While RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, I'm not convinced he'll be able to find any running room behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to both run and pass block. The Jags defense has held up as well as anyone could have expected so far this season. Even two weeks ago when their offense turned the football over a whopping five times in the rain in Philadelphia, they still 'only' allowed 29 points against a high-powered Eagles offense. Last week's loss certainly can't be pinned on the defense as the Jags offense simply couldn't get anything going against the Texans. There are going to be some growing pains like that over the course of the season for this offense but I expect it to bounce back on Sunday. The Colts defense was made to look good against a punchless Broncos offense last week. I don't believe it will be so fortunate here as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence looked incredibly comfortable against this unit back in Week 2, picking it apart for 25-of-30 passing for 235 yards. Even last year, when the Jags were an absolute mess, they still managed to stay within six points of the Colts as a double-digit underdog here in Indy. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored here. Take Jacksonville (10*). |
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10-15-22 | USC v. Utah UNDER 65 | 42-43 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Utah at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Utes had to come away embarrassed by their defensive performance against UCLA last week, suffering a 42-32 defeat. While that game ended up getting into the 70's, it actually saw just seven points scored in the first quarter and the score was 14-10 UCLA at the end of the first half. Things didn't go Utah's way in the second half and I certainly expect it to make amends here, by keeping proceedings far more under control. Keep in mind, the Utes are without one of their top offensive players from the start of the campaign in TE Brant Kuithe. They can ill afford to get involved in another shootout here against an undefeated USC squad. We didn't see it much last week as the Utes were forced to play from behind most of the way but they certainly will want to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten this game with long, clock-churning drives. I'm not convinced the big play potential will be there against a solid Trojans defense. Save for allowing two unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns in a blowout win at Stanford back in Week 2, the USC defense has been outstanding this season. It had a brief lapse early in the second quarter last Saturday against Washington State, allowing two touchdowns in just over three minutes but that was it as it held the Cougars to just those 14 points in another lopsided victory. The last time we saw the Trojans play on the road they showed the ability to win a 'grind-it-out' type of affair, prevailing by a 17-14 score at Oregon State on September 24th. It is worth noting that USC didn't reach the end zone in that contest until the first minute of the third quarter. The Beavers did lay out a pretty good defensive blueprint for how to slow the Trojans offense, something the Utes will look to replicate here - again, job one will be simply holding onto and moving the football on offense in an effort to keep their defense fresh - something they weren't able to do last week. USC QB Caleb Williams is going to be a handful for the Utah defense but it is worth noting that he hasn't been running the football at will as much as you might expect. In two previous road games, he ran for just 31 yards on 18 attempts. He's topped out at nine rushing attempts in five of six games so far this season. While last year's matchup between these two teams ultimately totalled 68 points in a Utah road upset, we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around (last year's game saw a closing total of just 52.5 points). I'm not sure that it's warranted. Take the under (8*). |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 49 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State has seen three straight games go 'over' the total (based on closing numbers - we played the 'under' early in the week prior to its game against Arkansas last week before the total moved seven points) but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in Lexington. Note that the Bulldogs have forced seven turnovers while turning the football over just once themselves over the last three games - a big reason they racked up 45, 42 and 40 points over those three contests, all victories, also notably all at home. In two previous road games this season we've seen Mississippi State hang 40+ points on a bad Arizona defense and score just 16 points the next week at LSU. Here, the Bulldogs will face a tough challenge against a Kentucky squad that has held all six opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Wildcats are expected to have QB Will Levis back for Saturday's game and most expect the offense to immediately take off after scoring just 14 points in a disappointing home loss against South Carolina last week. I'm not so easily convinced. Remember, just two games back, with Levis on the field, Kentucky scored just 19 points in a loss to Ole Miss. While Mississippi State is known for its high-powered offense, its defense has been outstanding as well. Case in point, last week it didn't allow a touchdown against Arkansas until it was already ahead 21-3 with less than two minutes remaining in the first half. It has topped out at 276 passing yards allowed this season and that came in a game where Arizona attempted 54 passes and scored just 17 points. While last year's matchup between these two teams did go 'over' the total, it also featured a lower total than we're working with here. You would have to go back five meetings in the series to find the last time the two teams combined to score more than 48 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-22 | Arizona v. Washington OVER 73 | 39-49 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. All of the ingredients are there for a true shootout between the Wildcats and Huskies on Saturday in Seattle. These two teams were involved in an ugly 21-16 affair in favor of Washington last year. Keep in mind, a low-scoring game was to be expected as the total was set in the mid-40's for that one. Expect a much different story to unfold here. Arizona might not have the worst defense in the FBS but it's in the conversation. Opponents have had their way with the Wildcats, both on the ground and through the air, and Washington is well-positioned to take advantage as well - not to mention in a foul mood off consecutive road losses against UCLA and Arizona State. If the Wildcats are to have any hope of staying competitive in this one they're going to need QB Jayden De Laura to come up big. My concern for the Huskies defense here is their secondary. I don't think Washington has anyone capable of containing Arizona WR Jacob Cowing, who is capable of blowing the top off even the most skilled secondaries. Meanwhile, the Washington offense should feast in this matchup. There's really nothing the Wildcats defend particularly well, noting there was a 14-minute stretch where they yielded three touchdowns against Oregon last week...and then another seven-minute period where they gave up three more TD scores...that's right, in the same game. With Washington's tendency to let up late (it has allowed 29 fourth quarter points in its last two victories), the potential is certainly there for late scoring in this one. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-1 the last 11 times Washington has come off an outright loss as a double-digit favorite against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 69.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth. This is obviously a massive Big 12 showdown as both teams enter sporting perfect 5-0 records. Oklahoma State is coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring wins over Baylor and Texas Tech to open its Big 12 schedule. Meanwhile, TCU won (and covered) in thrilling fashion on the road against previously undefeated Kansas last Saturday, scoring at least 38 points for the fifth straight time to open the campaign. I believe both teams will be facing their toughest defensive test of the season on Saturday. Note that game script has been a big factor in the Cowboys last two high-scoring results. Last week against Texas Tech, two early touchdown scores (one by each team) in the game's first four minutes ultimately led to a back-and-forth shootout. Keep in mind, after giving up a Texas Tech touchdown just under three minutes into the second quarter, the Cowboys held the Red Raiders out of the end zone with the exception of one score around midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Baylor, Oklahoma State jumped ahead 23-3 and didn't yield a Bears touchdown until nearly three minutes into the second half. Meanwhile, TCU gave up two touchdowns in the first 17 minutes against Oklahoma two weeks ago but then didn't allow another touchdown score until the outcome had long been decided, up 55-17 just shy of four minutes into the fourth quarter. Last week, the Horned Frogs didn't allow a Kansas touchdown until just over two minutes into the second half. Things went a bit sideways from there as TCU was geared toward facing dual-threat QB Jaylon Daniels but after he suffered an injury, Jake Bean took over the Jayhawks offense and bombed away. After Oklahoma State won last year's matchup between these two teams by a 63-17 score, you can be sure that TCU has little interest in getting involved in a shootout here, regardless how much confidence it has in QB Max Duggan. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games when playing on the road off a home win but non-cover as a favorite, resulting in an average total of just 46.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have seen the 'under' cash in four of their last five games following consecutive contests in which 60+ points were scored, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +17 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. Iowa State enters this game reeling on the heels of three straight losses while Texas is brimming with confidence following consecutive wins, including a big 49-0 thumping over Oklahoma in last Saturday's Red River Shootout. The Cyclones have taken the last three meetings in this series and you would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2014, to find the last time either team scored more than 30 points in this matchup. I don't think getting over the hump against the Cyclones is going to be a slam dunk for the Longhorns here and will gladly grab the generous helping of points with underdog Iowa State. The season started well enough for Iowa State as it posted three straight victories, including an 'upset' win on the road against rival Iowa. The Cyclones ground game was rolling and the defense was firing on all cylinders. The good news is, the defense has continued to play well. It's been the offense that has let them down. I do think we'll see the Cyclones get back to running the football in an effort to shorten this game on Saturday. You can run on the Longhorns, as the likes of Alabama, UTSA, Texas Tech and even Oklahoma have shown. Texas will of course want to run the football as well, but it could be tough sledding against a Cyclones defense that has held all six opponents to 131 or fewer rushing yards on just 3.1 yards per rush. Just two games back we saw Iowa State allow two second quarter touchdowns against Kansas before shutting the Jayhawks out the rest of the way (that was when Kansas was at full strength on offense with a healthy Jalon Daniels and Daniel Hishaw). The Cyclones gave up a touchdown less than three minutes into the game against Kansas State last Saturday but then held the Wildcats out of the end zone for the remainder of the contest. Here, we'll note that Iowa State is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Texas checks in 1-4 ATS the last five times it has come off consecutive SU wins and is just 5-7 ATS the last 12 times it has followed up a 37+ point performance, which is also the situation here. Take Iowa State (8*). |
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10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU UNDER 57.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Houston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, two of the last three matchups have stayed 'under' including last year's 31-24 SMU victory. Navy exploded for 53 points in last week's blowout win over Tulsa but there's little chance we see it repeat that performance here. The Midshipmen benefited from four Golden Hurricane turnovers in that contest. It's worth noting that prior to that game, Navy had been held to 23 points or less in each of its first four contests this season, including 13 or less in three of those games. If the Midshipmen are going to keep this one competitive on Friday, they're going to need to come up with another strong defensive performance. Note that they've actually held up well on that side of the football this season and particularly of late. Navy enters this contest having yielded just six offensive touchdowns over their last 12 quarters of action. SMU isn't one-dimensional on offense by any means, but it hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire with its ground attack. The Mustangs have attempted 49+ passes in three straight games but that's had more to do with game script than anything else as they've either been trailing or involved in tightly-contested affairs. As a double-digit favorite here, the potential is there for them to lean a little more heavily on their running game to take some of the load off of QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with five interceptions over the last three games. Navy's gameplan will obviously involve effectively shortening this game but churning out long, time-consuming drives with its triple-option offense. Despite gaining just 177 rushing yards on 53 attempts in last year's meeting, the Midshipmen still won the time of possession battle, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes. It's also worth noting that they 'only' allowed 31 points despite SMU completing 30-of-40 passes for 324 yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Navy's last five games following an outright underdog victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed four of the last six times SMU has come off consecutive games totalling 60+ points, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Commanders have fallen on hard times, dropping four straight games since opening the season with a 28-22 win over the Jaguars. They've also faced a tough slate, however, starting with a trip to Detroit to face what was a full-strength Lions team at the time followed by a home game against the still-undefeated Eagles, a road game against a better than expected Cowboys team and finally a home date against an improving Titans squad. Here, Washington catches a break as it faces Chicago on a short week, with the Bears coming off an emotionally and physically draining 29-22 division loss against the Vikings on Sunday. The Bears do check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season but those victories came in a monsoon against the 49ers in Week 1 and over a then-winless Texans squad in Week 3. Here, they'll host a Commanders squad that checks in a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off four consecutive losses and a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two times it has come off three straight games in which it scored 17 or fewer points, as is the case here. I don't like the regression we've seen from the Bears defense in recent weeks. They've been getting gashed by opposing running games and that's an area I feel the Commanders can exploit as well. Chicago has already allowed three of its five opponents to rack up 175+ rushing yards this season. Offensively, Bears QB Justin Fields is coming off one of the best games of his young career but I question whether he can follow it up here, noting that they had a considerable advantage against a weak Vikings defense that doesn't stop the run and didn't really have anyone that could match up against Chicago's lone true receiving threat in Darnell Mooney. Washington has quietly played well defensively after a tough start to the campaign. It has held its last three opponents to just 2.6 yards per rush. The only opponent to throw for more than 260 yards against the Commanders this season was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Over the last two games, Washington has held the opposition to just 30-of-52 passing for 353 yards. While it's true those two games came against Cooper Rush and Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields is generally only asked to be a 'game manager' as well. Note that the Bears are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS victory, which is the situation here. They're also 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss against a division opponent. We'll plug our noses and back the Commanders here, noting that there's an outside chance we could see Ron Rivera finally lift QB Carson Wentz for experienced backup Taylor Heineke should Wentz get off to a poor start. That would only work in our favor in my opinion. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-13-22 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 54.5 | 40-43 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday. Baylor enters this contest off a 36-25 road loss against Oklahoma State on October 1st. Off its lone previous defeat this season it responded by absolutely manhandling Texas State the next week, yielding just seven points in a lopsided victory. While it certainly faces a tougher bounce-back spot on the road against West Virginia this week, I'm confident we'll see the Bears defense rise to the occasion. West Virginia scored just 20 points in a blowout loss at Texas last time out, failing to score in that game until the closing seconds of the first half - after it had already fallen behind 28-0. It did add two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was with the Longhorns letting down their guard after leading by a 35-7 score. Here, I'm expecting a much tighter contested affair, as indicated by the short pointspread. Note that two games back, we also saw the Mountaineers offense struggle to get going against Virginia Tech, failing to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half in that contest as well. Against a Bears defense that will certainly be in a foul mood off a loss, things won't get any easier here. While Baylor did ultimately put up a respectable 25 points in that aforementioned loss to Oklahoma State, it's worth noting that it was held out of the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter, and that was after the Cowboys had jumped ahead 23-3. Things opened up a bit for the Bears from there but again, Oklahoma State was playing with a considerable lead, a game script I don't envision unfolding in this one. We'll note that the 'under' is 8-3 in Baylor's last 11 games with the total set between 49.5 and 56 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'under' also checks in 6-3 in West Virginia's last nine contests when following a road loss, which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). |
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10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Temple plus the points over Central Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday. Temple plays about as ugly a brand of football as you'll find but it does succeed ATS, having covered in three of its five games so far this season. Here, I do think the Owls can run a little bit and ultimately move the chains and possess the football long enough to stay inside the pointspread. Temple has dropped each of the last five meetings in this series, failing to defeat UCF since 2016. It would be easy for the Knights to overlook the Owls coming off a big win over SMU and looking ahead to an away showdown against East Carolina next week. While UCF did prevail by a lopsided 41-19 score against a good SMU squad last week, that game ultimately turned on a couple of third quarter Knights touchdowns and from there the Mustangs came unglued trying to rally and UCF extended the winning margin. It wasn't until less than six minutes remaining in the first half before the Knights reached the end zone in that game. Two games back against Georgia Tech, UCF didn't score an offensive touchdown until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple has turned the football over 13 times through five games this season yet hasn't given up more than 30 points in a single contest. I do think we'll see the Owls go a little more conservative offensively in this one, simply looking to salvage some confidence from this two-game away set after a three-touchdown loss at Memphis last time out. On the flip side, the Knights might want to scale back dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee a little as he has led the team in rushing in all but one of its five games this season and it will certainly need his exploits at full-go down the stretch. Here, we'll note that UCF checks in 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory by 21+ points and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 contests after scoring 37+ points in its previous game. Look for the Knights to 'manage' this game and it ultimately comes at the expense of an ATS victory. Take Temple (10*). |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana and Marshall at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You've heard the saying that when a coach says he has two capable quarterbacks that really means he has no capable quarterbacks. That might be a bit harsh but I think it rings true with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns this season. Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields have split time under center with neither showing the ability to take over the reins entirely. I do think the Ragin' Cajuns have a capable enough offense led by RB Chris Smith to at least move the chains with some consistency and churn out some long drives in this midweek affair. I'm just not convinced they can finish a lot of drives with seven's on the board. In fact, Louisiana has scored just one offensive touchdown over its last seven quarters of football and that's despite its last two contests coming against anything but defensive powerhouses in South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. Marshall's biggest issue a year ago and ultimately the biggest reason it dropped a 36-21 decision in its matchup against Louisiana was its lack of run defense. It has shown improvement in that regard, however, this season. Only one opponent has gained more than 100 yards on the ground against the Thundering Herd this season and that was Notre Dame, picking up 130 rushing yards but needing 37 attempts to get there. Offensively, Marshall has topped out at 28 points in regulation time in four games (it reached that number twice) since opening the campaign with a 55-3 rout of FCS squad Norfolk State. RB Khalal Laborn has proven to be a big get for the Herd, running for 100+ yards in all five games this season. I do think Marshall will look to manage his workload a little bit moving forward though, noting that he's racked up 30+ carries in two straight and three of his last four games. Louisiana has held opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season but did turn in one bad game against the run, that coming against Louisiana-Monroe two contests back. The Warhawks rushing numbers were boosted by one 75-yard run - outside of that they actually gained just 152 yards on their other 38 attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Raiders, while coming off a much-needed victory over the Broncos last Sunday, are still watching their season slip away with the prospect of falling a full three games back of the AFC West-leading Chiefs on Monday night. I think there's a better chance of them avoiding that fate than most seem to believe. Here, we get Las Vegas playing with triple-revenge having lost the last three meetings in this series since posting a stunning 40-32 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead back on October 11, 2020 - almost two years to the day. To me, the Raiders woes aren't all that difficult to fix. They've been settling for far too many field goals rather than touchdowns - case in point, last week against the Broncos they kicked four field goals but still managed to produce 32 points. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Raiders passing game after going up against one of the best secondaries in football last week. I'm confident that will lead to a couple more touchdown drives. Getting slot WR Hunter Renfrow back certainly helps as well after he thrived in a pair of matchups against the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs are coming off a nationally-televised blowout win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. That was a true 'get-right' spot after suffering a 20-17 loss to the Colts the week previous (we won with Indianapolis in that game). Kansas City dropped the cash in its lone previous home game this season and is now 0-5 ATS in its last five home games when priced as a favorite between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Interestingly, the Chiefs are also 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've come off a wild, high-scoring game where both teams scored 30+ points, which is also the situation here. The Raiders are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 contests as a road underdog. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I think it's reasonable to question whether the Rams offense is broken at this point. Largely due to injuries on the offensive line but also as a result of lukewarm play-calling from Sean McVay, the Rams looked punchless and very much like a one-tricky pony - that trick being Cooper Kupp - in Monday's lopsided defeat at the hands of the 49ers. QB Matt Stafford hasn't looked right all season and is always on the verge of injury facing relentless pressure due to his makeshift o-line's ineffectiveness. Note that even on Monday, when Stafford attempted 48 passes (completing 32 of them) he still threw for only 200 yards. Defensively, the Rams are also dealing with a number of injuries and while they may get some players back this week, the prospect of everyone being back at full strength isn't all that high playing on a short week. Los Angeles' poor tackling was evident all night long against the 49ers on Monday. Only San Francisco's conservative play-calling (with its own o-line injury issues) helped keep things from getting completely out of hand. The Cowboys roll into this showdown on the heels of three straight wins. QB Cooper Rush isn't being asked to do too much but he's been serviceable as an NFL starter, leading Dallas to four victories and not a single defeat going back to last season. Dallas regained the services of WR Michael Gallup last week and he quickly got on the scoreboard with a touchdown. The Cowboys receiving corps is starting to come a little more into focus with CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown (who has been better than expected) and Gallup. Dallas is now 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. It's worth noting that the Rams have gone a miserable 25-43 ATS in their last 68 home games with the total set between 42.5 and 45 points. The projected low-scoring nature of this game favors grabbing the points with the underdog Cowboys. Take Dallas (8*). |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +7 | 37-15 | Loss | -130 | 51 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers picked up a statement win against the division-rival and defending Super Bowl champion Rams on Monday Night Football but I look for them to get all they can handle against the Panthers in Carolina on Sunday. This is a tough spot at the best of times as the Niners hit the road on a short week to face a Panthers squad that's fresh off a home loss against the Cardinals last Sunday. While the Panthers are 1-3 to start the campaign, they've been competitive in all four games with two of their three losses coming by three points or less. With RB Christian McCaffrey (who I'll admit has been quiet so far this season) and a capable defense led by a terrific pass rush, I suspect Carolina will rarely be blown out this season. There's certainly a path for the Panthers to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and let their defense take care of the rest. In what projects to be a low-scoring affair (the total sits in the high-30's at the time of writing), I'm comfortable grabbing the points, noting that the Panthers check in a long-term 60-39 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here. The 49ers not only lost Trent Williams to injury but his backup, Connor McKivitz, who had been filling in admirably, is now out until December as well. I expect to see the Niners continue to focus on running the football and getting the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo's hand quickly when they do elect to throw it. Again, that leads to the potential of long, clock-churning drives that help our cause with the points in our back pocket here. Here, we'll note that the 49ers are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on the road after allowing fewer than 10 points in their previous game and 22-39 ATS in their last 61 contests away from home off a victory by 14 points or more, which is also the situation here. Take Carolina (8*). |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've been high on the Falcons lately and why not as they've gone a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season, including consecutive outright underdog wins over Seattle and Cleveland. I think they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday, however, as they travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers squad that finds itself in a blow-up spot off consecutive home losses against the Packers and Chiefs. It's not often teams get to play three straight games at home but that's the case for the Bucs on Sunday. They're seemingly catching the Falcons at the right time as well as Atlanta will be without Swiss Army knife RB Cordarrelle Patterson. That's not to mention the fact that TE Kyle Pitts is banged-up as well - likely to play but not likely to be at 100%. Of course, Pitts has been disappointing apart from his strong blocking this year, failing to live up to the hype in his sophomore campaign, so far at least. Lost in the Falcons competitive start to the season is the fact that their offense has been extremely limited and one-dimensional. Last week, QB Marcus Mariota completed just 7-of-19 passes for 131 yards against a Browns pass defense that had been struggling (not to mention a pass rush that was missing Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney). Since completing 20 passes in Week 1 against New Orleans, Mariota has totalled 17 or less completions in each of the last three games. We know that the Bucs can stop the run and that leaves the Falcons in a tough spot should they fall behind early in this one. Tampa Bay's offense was forced to throw the gameplan out the window after digging an early hole of its own against Kansas City last Sunday night. In fact, the Bucs have run the football only 20 times in the last week as game script has certainly worked against them. Here, we can anticipate a much different story unfolding as the Falcons have done little to slow opposing ground attacks, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. And let's not forget that the Tampa Bay offense got most of its key parts back last week with Mike Evans leading the charge with two touchdown receptions. Atlanta's opponents have been filling up the boxscore through the air, completing 23, 27, 32 and 21 passes through four games - despite combining for seven turnovers short-circuiting drive-after-drive. The Bucs had little trouble in this matchup last year, winning both meetings by a combined 78-42 margin. Here, we'll note that the Falcons check in a woeful 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've come off an outright win as a home underdog, as is the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks enter this game off consecutive 'over' results, including last week's 93-point shootout in Detroit. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday as they stay on the road to face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. I think both teams have an interest in effectively shortening this game as their best chance at coming away victorious. For the Seahawks, they're essentially playing with 'house money' off to a surprising 2-2 start and having already won the front-half of this two-game road set. They've been throwing the football far more than most expected given head coach Pete Carroll's penchant for 'establishing the run' at all costs. Here, I think we'll see Seattle get back to that run-first gameplan with RB Rashaad Penny performing exceptionally well. The problem here is that the Saints defense is capable of smothering opposing ground attacks and I'm not convinced the Seahawks passing game can do enough to keep them honest here. Note that only four other pass defenses have held opposing quarterbacks to a lower completion percentage than the Saints this season. Offensively, New Orleans is limited, due in large part to a number of key injuries. QB Jameis Winston isn't expected to play meaning the offense will once again be left in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Returning from London, I don't believe the Saints have any interest in getting involved in an exhausting shootout here. Look for them to focus on churning out long, clock-eating drives with a focus on running the football with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Seahawks have been helpless against the run this season, yielding well north of 5.0 yards per rush but the Saints ground attack has appeared anything but explosive so we could see a bit of a stagnant battle here. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams totalled just 23 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 41.5. We're working with a considerably higher total here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expected the Vikings to be a strong 'over' play with Kevin O'Connell taking over head coaching duties from Mike Zimmer this season, not to mention Minnesota's leaky defense. It took a few weeks but now we've seen the Vikings get involved in consecutive shootouts, loosely-speaking, resulting in back-to-back 'overs' against Detroit and New Orleans (in London). Here, I expect another higher-scoring than expected matchup against the Bears in friendly offensive conditions indoors in Minnesota. The Bears offense has been putrid so far this season but it has also faced some tough defensive opponents, in difficult settings, with the exception of a game against Houston in which it scored a season-high 23 points. Here, there's reason for optimism as the Bears running game should feast on a Vikings run defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. QB Justin Fields continues to be under constant duress but there will be plays to be made against a below-average Vikings secondary in this game, especially as game-script will likely favor the Bears going a little more aggressive playing from behind. It should be all systems go for the Vikings offense as they look to tee off on a Bears defense that has done little to slow opposing running or passing games this season. Chicago checks in allowing 4.8 yards per rush, setting this up as a blow-up spot for Vikes RB Dalvin Cook. The Bears could be in dire straits trying to defend Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who checks in off a dominant performance in London, noting that CB Jaylon Johnson is questionable to play again this week as he recovers from a quad injury that has kept him out of the last two games. Note that last year's matchup between these two teams in Minnesota totalled 48 points. The 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Minnesota has come off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 55.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Texas A&M v. Alabama UNDER 51.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 103 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and Alabama at 8 pm et on Saturday. I think both of these teams have a keen interest in getting this one over with as quickly as possible, albeit for much different reasons. For Texas A&M, it's only legitimate shot at staging another upset win over Alabama comes by keeping offensive drives alive with its ground game and effectively shortening this contest. Job number one for the Aggies will be taking care of the football after a slew of miscues led to a blowout loss at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). It's telling that last week's setback was A&M's worst defensive performance of the season as it really wasn't all that bad in that regard, holding Mississippi State off the scoreboard until nearly nine minutes into the second quarter and not allowing an offensive touchdown over an 18-minute stretch from the last minute of the second quarter until the third minute of the fourth quarter. For Alabama, it simply wants to pick up a win and move on to next week's critical showdown against currently undefeated Tennessee. After getting an injury scare with QB Bryce Young last week - but still exploding for 49 points in a rout of Arkansas - I think we see the Crimson Tide settle things down here. After a strong first half, Alabama played far too loose defensively in the third quarter of last week's game, something I believe we'll see it make amends for back in Tuscaloosa this week. Note that the 'under' is 34-18 the last 52 times the Tide have returned home following a road win in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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10-08-22 | Air Force -10 v. Utah State | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
MWC Game of the Month. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force. The Falcons are coming off an ugly 13-10 victory over Navy last Saturday. Bettors lined up to back Air Force in that contest and got burned as it never came close to sniffing out a cover. Here, I think the wrong thing to do would be to back off of the Falcons. They're in a smash spot as they make the trip to Logan to take on Utah State. The Aggies are off to a 1-4 start and while they did put up more of a fight than most expected, they still dropped a 38-26 decision against BYU last Thursday. Utah State jumped out to an early 7-0 start in that contest with surprising starting QB Cooper Legas clearly catching the BYU defense off guard. From there, however, it managed just two more touchdowns the rest of the way with one of those coming in the game's final two minutes when the outcome was all but decided. Just two games back, when the Aggies were fresh off an embarrassing 35-7 home loss against FCS squad Weber State and appeared to be in prime bounce-back position, they gave up three UNLV touchdowns over a seven-minute stretch early in the contest and ultimately lost by 10 points at home. We've already successfully backed Air Force twice this season, at home against Colorado and Nevada, while also successfully fading it in its lone previous loss - a stunning 17-14 weeknight defeat in Wyoming back on September 16th. I'm not going to knock the Falcons over last week's tight decision against a struggling Navy squad as you never really know how those 'Commander-in-Chief Trophy' games will go (just ask Army about its game against Navy last December). Air Force has undoubtedly had this game circled after dropping a wild 49-45 loss against Utah State in last year's meeting. That was a much stronger Aggies squad, on both sides of the football. I have little confidence in Utah State's ability to get back in this game should it fall behind as Air Force controls the football, controls the clock and ultimately controls the outcome. Take Air Force (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Ole Miss -18 v. Vanderbilt | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 123 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Vanderbilt at 4 pm et on Saturday. We faded Ole Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a Kentucky ATS cover in a 22-19 Rebels victory. For the first time this season the Rebels offense looked ordinary as it didn't reach the end zone again after scoring its second touchdown of the game with just under a minute remaining in the first quarter. This is a blow-up spot for the Ole Miss offense as it heads to Nashville to face Vanderbilt. The Commodores check in 3-2 on the season but inconsistency has been their calling card. I just don't think they're ever going to regain the form that saw them score 63 points in their Week 0 rout of Hawaii. It's easy to forget as they didn't play last week but the last time we saw the Commodores they were blasted 55-3 by Alabama. Vandy has now gone five consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown. I don't like the way its quarterback situation has been handled this season as dual-threat QB Mike Wright has been benched for A.J. Swann. Save for one-off career games from RB Ray Wright and WR Will Sheppard against Northern Illinois, the Commodores offense really hasn't been anything special. It's a different story for Ole Miss. As I mentioned, the Rebels didn't have their best offensive performance last Saturday but that was against a tough Kentucky defense. Two games back, the Rebels had a stretch where they scored four touchdowns in 13 minutes in the second quarter against Tulsa. They also scored six touchdowns in the first three quarters in a road win over Georgia Tech - a similar opponent to Vandy - back on September 17th. On the flip side, in its last 16 quarters of football, the Rebels defense has allowed just six touchdowns. I see this as a 'squash match' for visiting Ole Miss. Take Ole Miss (8*). |