Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Eagles win over the Bears last Sunday and also missed with the ‘over’ the last time Philadelphia played here in New Orleans back on November 18th. With that being said, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as this one sets up as a shootout at the Superdome. The Eagles should come in believing they can score in this game after going up against one of the best defenses in football last week in Chicago. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Philadelphia offense as it hits the fast track in New Orleans. I liked some of the changes we saw the Eagles make offensively against the Bears, bringing WR Golden Tate back into the picture, and I do feel Tate can have an even bigger game against a vulnerable Saints pass defense in the slot. It’s also worth noting that WR Alshon Jeffery matches up particularly well with whoever he lines up against on this Saints defense. On the flip side, we’ve got the Saints at home – we know they’re going to put points on the board. I give the Eagles undermanned defense a lot of credit as they have done an excellent job instilling a ‘next man up’ philosophy following a number of key injuries in their secondary. However, there’s a big difference between facing the Bears and young QB Mitch Trubisky and going up against one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in Drew Brees and a loaded Saints offense. I don’t believe the books have set this number high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and New England at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total in this game but I’m anticipating a bit of a slugfest. The Chargers offense is somewhat limited with RB Melvin Gordon dealing with a myriad of injuries. Give him credit for sticking it out and turning in a solid performance against the Ravens last week but it’s really difficult to gauge just how much he has left in the tank for this one. I have felt all season that the Patriots possess an underrated defense that is capable of rising to the occasion when it needs to. This is certainly one of those spots where the Pats are going to need a peak performance from their defense as I’m really not sure how much success Tom Brady and company will have on offense against a talented and creative Chargers defense. Los Angeles defensive coordinator Gus Bradley pushed all the right buttons in last week’s dominant performance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens run-first offense. The Chargers will face a much different challenge here but I do expect them to show up and play well again. Note that the Patriots scored 27 points or less in six of their final nine regular season games and they eclipsed that number against the likes of the Packers, Dolphins and Jets so it’s tough to envision them getting back to that level here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams | 22-30 | Loss | -118 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ve been a bit slower than most to come around on the Cowboys and did cash a ticket with the Seahawks (barely) in Dallas last Saturday night. With that being said, I see this as a fine matchup for Dallas and actually believe it is capable of pulling off the outright upset. The Rams look like the classic case of a team peaking too early. They closed out the regular season with just two wins in their last four games, and those victories came against the Cardinals and 49ers. As far as I’m concerned, this is a team that peaked in that classic Monday night shootout victory over the Chiefs back in mid-November. Playing last week might have actually been best for the Rams as it would have given them an opportunity to keep building. Instead they go from a standing start against a surging Cowboys squad that believes it can beat anyone right now. Dallas’ offense runs through RB Ezekiel Elliott and I’m confident he’s in for a big game against this beatable Rams defense. I really like what the Cowboys have going for them with Elliott consistently moving the chains and a tremendous defense that doesn’t give up many easy yards. The Rams have had time to add plenty of wrinkles to their offense and we’ll undoubtedly see that on Saturday night but I’m confident in Dallas’ ability to take some punches but remain on its feet. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Indianapolis at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Colts in last week’s blowout win in Houston but I won’t hesitate to go the other way and back the Chiefs as they kick off what they hope will be a Super Bowl run on Saturday afternoon. First of all, we know that Kansas City owns one of the strongest home field advantages in football playing at Arrowhead Stadium. For the Colts this will be their third consecutive road game in as many weeks while the Chiefs enjoyed a much-needed off week to open the playoffs. I’ve been high on Indianapolis for much of the season but there’s no question it benefited from a favorable schedule and here takes a big step up in class against a hungry, talented and highly-motivated Chiefs squad. Note that the Chiefs have been a far better defensive team at home, where they hold the opposition to around 18 points per game compared to north of 30 ppg on the road. The Colts offense is good but not great. That unit has certainly been buoyed by the schedule they’ve faced. The same goes for the Colts defense, which runs into a true juggernaut here. I’m confident we’ll see the Chiefs march up and down the field all afternoon long on Saturday. There were concerns after the Kareem Hunt suspension and subsequent release but as we’ve seen across the league in recent years, running back has become somewhat of a ‘plug-and-play’ position and I like what I’ve seen from a rejuvenated Damien Williams in the backfield. Maybe the Colts keep up in a track meet but I’m more confident in the Chiefs getting enough stops on defense as the game progresses to secure a comfortable victory. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +5.5 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. This is the fourth straight year that the Tigers and Crimson Tide will meet in the College Football Playoff and after getting blown out in the semi-final last year, I fully expect Dabo Swinney's Tigers to respond with a strong performance here. I'll grab the points in what should be a far more competitive affair than we saw a year ago. Alabama has actually just covered one spread over its last four games, that coming in a 52-21 rout of Auburn back on November 24th. Meanwhile, Clemson rolls into this contest after blowing out Pitt in the ACC Championship Game and Notre Dame in the CFP semi-final. There's really not a lot more to say about this matchup than has already been said. I simply feel that taking the points is the right move in a game where there's little to separate two elite squads. Take Clemson (10*). |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 41.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Philadelphia and Chicago at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. I would imagine the books will see plenty of support for the ‘under’ leading up to this matchup but I feel the total will prove too low. The common line of thinking is that a late afternoon January game at Soldier Field will be a defensive slugfest but the matchups indicate otherwise. The Eagles are injury-ravaged in their secondary and really up against it facing a versatile Bears offense that can beat you in a lot of different ways. Chicago is guided by one of the best offensive minds in football in head coach Matt Nagy and I’m confident he’ll have an excellent gameplan laid out for beating this undermanned Philadelphia defense. What the Eagles do have going for them is a gutsy QB in Nick Foles who despite playing hurt, should find a way to put some points on the board in this game with a number of weapons at his disposal. The Bears certainly possess an elite defense but they’re facing an Eagles offense that still has most of the key pieces from last year’s Super Bowl run and I don’t think we’ll see Philadelphia go away quietly. We don’t need a shootout to cash this ticket and that certainly plays into our favor. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens in this matchup as they catch the Chargers in a favorable matchup, playing an early afternoon game on the east coast on Sunday. The Ravens have already proven they can beat the Chargers, and they did so on the road no less, back before Christmas. Baltimore simply isn’t the same team it was earlier in the season. Since installing QB Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have gone run-heavy, in fact they’ve been the most run-heavy team in the league, playing keep-away against every opponent they’ve faced. I expect nothing different here, and I like the fact that they’re facing a Chargers squad that seemingly peaked too early this season, perhaps doing so on that Thursday night win in Kansas City in early December. I have a lot of confidence in the Ravens ability on both sides of the football, with their defense putting together an incredible body of work over the course of the entire season. Their ability to step up and finish off a surging Browns offense on the final season-saving drive last Sunday afternoon was tremendous. Look for them to build off of that performance here. Maybe I would have more confidence in Los Angeles were it not for all of the injuries do-it-all RB Melvin Gordon has dealt with. This is quite simply a beaten up Chargers offense right now, and one I can’t see walking into Baltimore and stealing a win on Sunday. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the points with the Seahawks as they have an excellent shot at ‘upsetting’ the Cowboys in Dallas. The Cowboys inexplicably showed up and played their starters most of the way on the road against the Giants last week (save for RB Ezekiel Elliott) and ultimately pulled out a victory on a miraculous Cole Beasley touchdown pass in the game’s final minute. Now they face a much tougher challenge and do so with a lot of pressure on them to win. Seattle is essentially playing with house money at this point. The Seahawks have exceeded all expectations after cleaning house and getting off to a sluggish start to the season. I love the evolution we’ve seen from the Seahawks offense over the course of the season with RB Chris Carson taking on a feature role. That should serve them well as they go against a Cowboys run defense that is good but not great, and showed signs of wearing down during the stretch run. Unlike the other west coast team on Wild Card Weekend (Chargers), the Seahawks benefit from getting a primetime game, and only have to travel two time zones east at that. Take Seattle (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Colts +2 v. Texans | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. The Colts are arguably the league’s hottest team entering the playoffs and after winning with them last Sunday night in Tennessee, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they travel to face the Texans on Wild Card Saturday. The argument can certainly be made that the Colts are the healthier team entering this matchup and I really like the advantage they have with their passing game against a Texans pass defense that looks a lot better on paper than it does on the field. Houston really benefited from a favorable schedule as far as facing elite passing offenses goes. Here, it will face an uphill climb against a red hot Andrew Luck, who has done a tremendous job spreading the football around in this Colts offense. Defensively, the Colts quietly had one of the better units in the league over the course of the regular season, and this is a group that really came together down the stretch. The Texans are capable of putting some points on the board this game, but I believe they will be playing from behind much of the way, and I’m not convinced that they can make enough clutch plays down the stretch to secure a win. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up as a high-scoring playoff showdown between two familiar division opponents. I don’t believe the Texans pass defense can do much to slow a red hot Colts aerial attack led by QB Andrew Luck. Buoyed by a relatively weak schedule, the Houston pass ‘D’ is a ‘paper tiger’ as far as I’m concerned. Look for the Colts to move the football at will through the air in the friendly confines of Reliant Stadium on Saturday afternoon. I do fully expect this to be a competitive affair, and if we project the Colts to move the football and put plenty of points on the board, the Texans are going to have to as well. Houston obviously does have offensive weapons, namely dual-threat QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Colts defense has been good, but ultimately got here thanks to facing a rather limited Titans offense led by backup QB Blaine Gabbert last Sunday night. They will be taking a step up in class in this one. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams during the regular season, and I expect nothing different here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Washington at 5 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel there is a considerable class difference in this matchup that isn't being properly reflected in the pointspread. If you're looking for impressive victories on Washington's schedule, they're pretty tough to find. I felt that it was a down year for the Pac-12 as a whole and when the Huskies did step up in class, they lost against Auburn (we won with the Tigers in that game) and also suffered a loss at Oregon. Ohio State closed out the season with five straight wins, including a rout of a game Northwestern squad in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes scored at will for much of the season but also proved they could win in a defensive slugfest, posting wins (and covers) at Penn State and Michigan State. There are those that feel the Huskies can hang around with their defense in this matchup - I'm not so easily convinced. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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01-01-19 | Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa plus the points over Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Tuesday. I really don't feel there's a lot to choose between these two teams and see considerable value backing the Hawkeyes in an underdog role on New Year's Day. Mississippi State is being given the edge by the oddsmakers largely due to the fact that it plays in the SEC. But what did the Bulldogs do to really impress over the course of the season? There was a road win at Kansas State and a couple of blowout home wins over Auburn and Texas A&M but that's really it. Meanwhile, Iowa battled it out in the Big Ten all season long and did manage to stay competitive in tight road losses at Penn State and Purdue. In fact, all four losses the Hawkeyes suffered came by 11 points or less, with the largest margin coming in a home loss to Wisconsin way back on September 22nd. I'm anticipating a competitive affair here and will grab all the points I can get with Iowa. Take Iowa (10*). |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 55.5 | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. State and Texas A&M at 7:30 pm et on Monday. This game has major shootout potential with both the Wolfpack and the Aggies featuring capable quarterbacks and dynamic ground games. Both offenses are certainly comfortable in what they do and closed out the regular season on high notes with N.C. State routing East Carolina and Texas A&M prevailing in an overtime thriller against LSU, 74-72 (yes, you read that right). Neither defense is a pushover by any means, but these units have also become somewhat accustomed to getting involved in high-scoring affairs. I believe both teams will come in with the mentality that they need to end drives with 7's rather than 3's in order to prevail in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-18 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Stanford | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Stanford at 2 pm et on Monday. The Panthers have been a pretty tough team to figure out this season, at least up until they had their doors blown off against Clemson in a true mismatch in the ACC Championship Game. Here, I do like Pitt's chances of sticking around against a Stanford squad that finished strong, but still ultimately disappointed in the Pac-12 this season. The Cardinal really had only one notable victory over the final two months of the season, that coming on the road against Cal in their regular season finale. Stanford is really only here thanks to taking care of business against the teams it should beat. I don't believe this is a gimme for the Cardinal by any means. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Monday. Cincinnati put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch this season but it did so against weak opposition. Meanwhile, the Bearcats were held to 13 points against UCF, 26 points in an overtime win over SMU and 17 points in an overtime loss to Temple, just to name a few subpar offensive performances. Virginia Tech isn't the defensive powerhouse it once was, but it can still hang. Like the Bearcats, the Hokies offense didn't do a great job when stepping up in class this season. Prior to scoring 34 and 41 points in their final two regular season games, they had put up 28 points or less in six consecutive contests. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Colts -3 v. Titans | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. A classic 'win and you're in' scenario sets up here as the Colts and Titans play to decide who marches on to the postseason. I have no problem backing the Colts as a road favorite here as they catch a banged-up Titans squad that has gone about as far as RB Derrick Henry has carried them down the stretch. Keep in mind, the Colts have been stout against the run lately, giving up just north of 3.2 yards per rush over their last seven contests. This game should fall in the hands of Andrew Luck and the Colts offense and with a balanced approach, I believe they can thrive against a Titans defense that is certainly stout, but will be missing one of its key cogs in DT Jurrell Casey. Save for an egg laid in Jacksonville earlier this month, the Colts have been the hottest team in football for the last two-plus months. I believe they're a playoff team and look for them to put a stamp on it in Tennessee on Sunday night. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Raiders Christmas Eve win over the Broncos, and came close to backing Oakland in that game as well. I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Raiders as they close out the regular season on the road at Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon, however. The Chiefs have fallen on some tough times down the stretch, dropping three of their last five games heading into this one. Keep in mind, their losses came on the road against the Rams and Seahawks and at home against the Chargers so there was really no shame in any of those defeats. In that mix was also a narrow road win over the Raiders. The relatively close nature of that contest should help keep their guard up on Sunday afternoon. Not as if they need any extra motivation as they're playing for the number one seed in the AFC and could incredibly fall as many as four spots if things don't go their way this week. With the Raiders in a clear letdown spot, and heading into one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe the oddsmakers have this one right. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys v. Giants -5.5 | 36-35 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. At the tail-end of a long, frustrating season, we should see the Giants go all out to end their campaign on a high note and perhaps give their faithful something to smile about heading into 2019. The gameplan should feature a ton of Saquon Barkley and he should have a field day against a Cowboys squad that has absolutely nothing to play for here. Jerry Jones has said that his 'Boys will be putting their best foot forward here, but I don't see it happening. Expect Dak, Zeke and others to see a series or two of action at most. Take New York (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Lions v. Packers -7.5 | 31-0 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Not that we needed any further evidence that the Packers are intent on ending this season on a positive note, but we got it last Sunday in New Jersey as they rallied back late and defeated the Jets in overtime. Now they get another prime opportunity to build on those positive vibes as they return home to face the division-rival Lions. Detroit has won just twice over its last nine games and hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game since mid-November. Even against a very beatable Packers defense, I don't expect the Lions offense to get much done this week either. Having lost three straight meetings in this series, look for the Packers to go all out for the 'W' on Sunday afternoon. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Bills a couple of weeks ago as they won but failed to cover at home against the Lions. I expect a stronger offensive performance this time around as QB Josh Allen should have a field day against this Miami defense. The Bills defense has quietly been one of the most consistent units in the NFL this season. While we're dealing with a slightly higher number than I would like, I do think we'll see Buffalo control proceedings in this one as Miami peaked in that wild win over the Patriots three weeks ago but has gone in the tank since, going 0-2 ATS, losing those games by a combined 58-24 score. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-29-18 | Oklahoma +14 v. Alabama | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Alabama at 8 pm et on Saturday. Most are anticipating a blowout in this 1 vs. 4 matchup but I believe Oklahoma can hang around and make life difficult for the Crimson Tide. Of course, when it comes to the Sooners it's all about their offense. Oklahoma is going to need a monumental effort from Heisman Trophy winner QB Kyler Murray but I do think he has it in him on the big stage on Saturday night. The Sooners have suffered just one loss this season, that coming way back in October against rival Texas, and it came by only three points. Oklahoma had little trouble avenging that defeat, scoring a 39-27 win over the Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship Game earlier this month. This is becoming old hat for Alabama and there's no denying the Tide are once again the nation's best team. However, I do feel the Sooners have an excellent shot at keeping this close, much like Georgia did in the SEC Championship Game. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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12-29-18 | South Carolina v. Virginia +5 | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia plus the points over South Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. Virginia ended the regular season on a real sour note with three losses in its final four games to fall into this Bowl game. Meanwhile, South Carolina won four of its last six contests and has been installed as the favorite in this SEC-ACC showdown. I'm not at all impressed by South Carolina's resume and to be completely honest, I don't believe the Gamecocks should be favored in this game. Virginia had its wheels come off late in the season but that could be forgotten with a victory over an SEC opponent here. The Cavaliers did defeat Miami and go on the road and beat Duke during their ACC campaign. Take Virginia (10*). |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse -2 v. West Virginia | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Syracuse minus the points over West Virginia at 5:15 pm et on Friday. The Orange haven't appeared in a Bowl game since 2013, when they defeated Minnesota as 3.5-point underdogs. We've seen a big line shift here since the news came out that West Virginia QB Will Grier would sit out this game, and that means an awful lot. Grier carried the Mountaineers for much of the season and regardless what head coach Dana Holgorsen says, his absence will certainly be felt here. Credit Syracuse for finishing the regular season on a strong note. The Orange have been terrible at closing out the regular season with any sort of success in recent years, a big reason they've been shut out of Bowl action for the last five years. I fully expect to see Syracuse make the most of its opportunity here, even without some key cogs on the defensive side of the football. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +3 | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Miami at 5:15 pm et on Thursday. Miami may be favored in this game but there's really nothing all that impressive on the Hurricanes resume this year and I believe they'll be in tough against a Wisconsin squad that was a disappointment in its own right. The Badgers went a miserable 3-9 ATS during the regular season but I do feel they'll be motivated to end the year on a high note in this matchup. I really liked what I saw from Wisconsin in its late season road win at Purdue, not to mention a road victory against Iowa earlier in the campaign. The venue suits the Badgers well with this game being played in New York. It may not be pretty, but I look for Wisky to pull off the minor upset. Take Wisconsin (10*). |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. You can be sure there will be a lot of bettors looking for action eager to play the 'over' in this, the lone game on the board on Christmas Eve. I can't help but feel the total has been shaded a little high. Note that the Raiders have been involved in a string of relatively high-scoring affairs with the 'over' going 3-1-1 in their last five contests. I'm not sure that's sustainable, however, noting that the Oakland offense is rather punchless. While the Raiders defense has been bad as well, I don't believe the Broncos are well-suited to take advantage. With RB Philip Lindsay struggling over the last couple of games, the Denver offense hasn't been able to gain any headway. An injury to WR Emmanuel Sanders - QB Case Keenum's favorite target - hasn't helped. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series and none of those games have really come all that close to going 'over'. That includes earlier this season, when the Broncos beat the Raiders 20-19 with a field goal in the closing seconds. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. There's really nothing to fear when it comes to the Rams offense right now. Injuries have taken their toll with WR Cooper Kupp sidelined and RB Todd Gurley banged-up to say the least. We've seen a severely limited Sean McVay offense in the last couple of games and things don't figure to get much easier as they hit the road to face a Cardinals squad eager to play the spoiler role on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Arizona offense continues to struggle. Now they go up against a highly-motivated Rams defense that has gotten better with the return of CB Aqib Talib. Note that the Rams shut out the Cardinals earlier this season and have allowed just 16 points in taking each of the last three meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Texans v. Eagles OVER 46 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are really an 'over' bettors' dream at this stage of the season. Their defense is completely decimated in the secondary and they've had no luck at all slowing down mobile opposing quarterbacks. Their offense is pass-first and appears rejuvenated with Nick Foles back under center, not to mention the fact that they've got their issues sorted when it comes to recently-acquired WR Golden Tate, who is not a fit in this offense. Tate has seen limited action in the last two weeks, to the benefit of the Eagles passing game. The Texans scored 29 points in a win over the Jets last Saturday and have now scored more than 20 points in five straight games. QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the Eagles struggling secondary on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an excellent spot to back the 'over' as the Giants aim to bounce back from a truly ugly showing at a rain-soaked Meadowlands last Sunday. Look for RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram to pace the charge for the Giants offense, which has certainly been handicapped by an ineffective Eli Manning this season. The Colts offense didn't have to do a whole lot at home against the Cowboys last week as they cruised to a 23-0 victory. QB Andrew Luck will likely have to dial it up a little more in this one, and should have plenty of success against a very limited Giants defense that has been getting ripped on a regular basis this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 42 | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at StubHub Center on Saturday night. The Ravens offense has had some success since going with Lamar Jackson under center but this is a tough matchup, traveling across the country to face a banged-up but still strong Chargers defense. The strength of the Los Angeles defense lies in its secondary right now. The Chargers should be able to cheat a little bit in this one and force Jackson to beat them through the air, something he hasn't done particularly well since taking over the starting job. Los Angeles staged an incredible fourth quarter comeback in Kansas City last week but QB Philip Rivers should find the going tough against a tough Ravens defense on Saturday. WR Keenan Allen may be able to play but it's unlikely he'll be 100% healthy. The same goes for RB Melvin Gordon. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army OVER 59 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Army at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Army's last game, its annual clash with Navy earlier this month. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this one, however, even with Houston missing QB D'Eriq King to a knee injury. Keep in mind, in the Cougars last game against Memphis, backup QB Clayton Tune threw for over 250 yards and three touchdowns. I do believe the Cougars will be able to move the football against this Army defense. On the flip side, Houston is not a good defensive team, getting ripped time and time again over the course of the season. I'm not sure the extra preparation time will have helped all that much as they get ready to go up against the Army triple-option offense. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Florida International v. Toledo OVER 57 | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida International and Toledo at 12:30 pm et on Friday. We saw a couple of situations where Toledo came out completely flat and was held down offensively this season but for the most part, the Rockets were explosive to say the least and I fully expect to see them get up for this Bowl tilt with Florida International on Friday. The Panthers saw a similar story unfold over the course of the regular season as they put up some gawdy offensive numbers on several occasions but were also held down in a couple of flat spots. This is not such a flat spot as the Panthers will be up for an opportunity to secure a Bowl win against a MAC opponent. There's little reason to anticipate either team holding much back in the Bahamas on Friday - I believe we're dealing with a reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida OVER 51 | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Marshall and South Florida at 8 pm et on Thursday. I believe this game has shootout potential, noting that Marshall posted an 8-4 o/u mark during the regular season while South Florida certainly was involved in its share of high-scoring affairs as well. The Bulls limped down the stretch but I don't believe they'll shy away from a shootout on Thursday night. Given they've had no success slowing down opposing running games, they'll be hard-pressed to avoid having to let it rip on offense in order to keep up. If nothing else, Marshall has been consistent putting points on the board this season, putting up at least 20 points in each and every game. The Thundering Herd scored 30+ on five different occasions. I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -3 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Marshall minus the points over South Florida at 8 pm et on Thursday. Outside of an early season win over Georgia Tech I have a tough time finding many quality wins on South Florida's resume and I believe the Bulls will be in tough against the Thundering Herd on Thursday night. These teams are mirror images of one another as far as ATS success goes, with both struggling against the number down the stretch. Marshall is without question the healthier squad heading into this game and I like the advantages the Thundering Herd have in the trenches, where they allowed less than three yards per rush this season in contrast to the Bulls 5.0 yards per rush allowed. Take Marshall (10*). |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois +2.5 v. UAB | 13-37 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over UAB at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the underdog Huskies on Tuesday night as they take on upstart UAB in the Boca Raton Bowl. We won with Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game against Buffalo and I see this as another fine spot to support the Huskies in an underdog role. The Blazers seemed to peak early this season as they come into this one having lost three of their last four games ATS with their lone victory coming in a two-point win over Middle Tennessee in the C-USA Championship Game. Note that UAB has been outgained in three straight games. Northern Illinois has been stout against the run this season, allowing just 2.7 yards per rush. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. After getting off to a sluggish start, we saw the Saints ultimately pull away for a two touchdown victory over the Bucs on the road last week. Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost five games in a row and look like they've all but quit on the season. I do think we'll see Carolina show up in this game, however. Keep in mind, five of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by five points or less. I'm not entirely convinced that the Saints didn't peak too early this season. This will be the first of two meetings between these two NFC South rivals in the final three weeks of the season and I'm confident we'll see the Panthers hang tough. Take Carolina (10*). |
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12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +3 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over New England at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Steelers to avoid a fourth straight loss as they host the Patriots on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh fell just short in Oakland last Sunday and now finds itself in danger of coughing up the AFC North division lead. New England is in bounce-back mode off an insane last-second loss in Miami last week. The Pats are limping along right now, having gone just 2-2 SU and ATS over their last four games. The Steelers are generally at their best in these Sunday late afternoon home games and I'm confident their offense will come up big in this matchup. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -7.5 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a big bounce-back spot for the Vikings who quite simply haven't looked good in recent weeks but still remain in playoff position in the NFC. The Dolphins are in a big-time letdown spot here after that thrilling wing and a prayer win over the Patriots last Sunday. Miami hasn't traveled particularly well and will run into a highly-motivated opponent here. I still feel the Dolphins are pretenders, even after hanging with, and ultimately beating a true Super Bowl contender last week. If the Vikes don't show up this week they might as well fold up the tent. I'm confident they do come to play. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions travel across the country after beating the Cardinals in Arizona last Sunday. Detroit is still a bottom-feeder as far as I'm concerned, and while the Bills haven't been any better, they do have some upside here at home in December, coming off a narrow loss to the Jets last week. Look for the Buffalo defense to come up big in this one against a punchless Lions offense. We're being asked to lay a short number with the team in the much better spot. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over Appalachian State at 9 pm et on Saturday. This is a game the Blue Raiders have to feel confident they can not only keep competitive, but win outright. Middle Tennessee State closed out the season on a 5-1 ATS run, with its lone setback coming in a quick revenge match against UAB after defeating the Blazers by a 27-3 score the first time around. It was really a tale of two halves as far as the regular season went for the Blue Raiders. Perhaps the same could be said of Appalachian State, which ran out of gas a little bit down the stretch, going 3-4 over its final six games after opening the season with five straight ATS victories. There's not a lot separating these two teams. I like the Blue Raiders experience at quarterback and believe they can at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Middle Tennessee State (10*). |
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12-15-18 | Texans v. Jets UNDER 44 | 29-22 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Saturday afternoon. The Texans have generally been good for around 20 points or less on the road this season, outside of a shootout victory over the Colts in Indianapolis, but that came back in late September. The Jets are coming off an unexpectedly high-scoring affair in Buffalo last Sunday, winning by a 27-23 score. That was their highest scoring output since putting up 42 points against the aforementioned Colts back in mid-October. New York has been outgained by over 120 total yards in four consecutive games. The last meeting between these two teams came back in 2015 and it resulted in only 41 total points. I don't expect to see much different of a story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Utah State at 2 pm et on Saturday. Utah State got off to a 9-1 ATS start this season but has dropped its last two games ATS entering this Bowl matchup with North Texas. It really seemed as if the Aggies offense ran out of gas near the end of the season and I can't imagine losing their entire coaching staff will help matters entering this contest. North Texas quietly went 9-3 SU this season but just 4-8 ATS. I believe the latter mark is leaving the Mean Green Eagles undervalued in this matchup. Note that they outgained each and every opponent this season in terms of total yardage and have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Mason Fine. Take North Texas (10*). |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Chiefs on Thursday night as they host the surging Chargers with an AFC West division title potentially hanging in the balance. Kansas City is dealing with some key injuries, including one to star WR Tyreek Hill. It sounds like Hill will play on Thursday night although it remains to be seen how effective he can be on a short week. Regardless, I still expect to see the Chiefs offense roll against a banged up Chargers defense. This is actually a fine spot for the Chiefs ground game, even if they are undermanned in that department. Los Angeles has won three games in a row but didn't make things easy on itself in last week's home game against the lowly Bengals. The fact that the Chargers have allowed 51 points in their last two contests is alarming to be sure as they prepare to face one of the league's best offenses in a hostile environment at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have won nine straight games in this series straight-up and four in a row ATS. Despite sputtering a little bit lately, Kansas City has still outgained each of its last five opponents in terms of total yardage and comes in battle-tested off last week's overtime win over Baltimore. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I believe we're dealing with a very reasonable total in this matchup, largely due to how inept the Vikings offense looked in last week's ugly 10-point effort in New England. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here as the Seahawks have certainly been beatable on defense this season, regardless whether they've been at home or on the road. Key here may be the fact that Seattle is giving up nearly six yards per rush in recent weeks, and goes up against a highly-motivated RB in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are beat up defensively and will go up against a Seahawks offense that seems to be gaining confidence with each passing week. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is poised for a big performance against a struggling Vikings defense in the slot. Meanwhile, RB Chris Carson has given Seattle some real consistency in the backfield. Minnesota has been tough against the run but I think the Seahawks will be creative enough with Carson and Rashaad Penny running the football to make some headway. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-18 | Bengals v. Chargers -14 | 21-26 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Chargers on Sunday afternoon as they host the lowly Bengals. Los Angeles is coming off a thrilling, come-from-behind win in Pittsburgh last Sunday night but I don’t anticipate any sort of letdown here. The Chargers need to keep it rolling here as they close the season with tough matchups against the Chiefs and Broncos on the road, sandwiched around a home date with the Ravens. The Chiefs are in sight atop the AFC West, but Los Angeles needs to take care of business here. The big key in this one should be the Chargers defense. They didn’t perform well in the first half against the Steelers but I liked the way they adjusted at halftime and essentially shut down an explosive Pittsburgh offense in the second half. This is a group that has been bolstered by the return of Joey Bosa and they catch a favorable matchup here against a Bengals offense that is missing QB Andy Dalton and likely WR A.J. Green as well. While Bengals RB Joe Mixon does draw a fine matchup here, if Cincinnati falls behind early, as I expect it will, he simply won’t get enough opportunities. We’re being asked to lay a steep number here, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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12-09-18 | Jets v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s hard to believe we’re laying points with the Bills at this stage of the season but this is a fine matchup for Buffalo, at home against a listless Jets squad that has a lame duck head coach in Todd Bowles and a makeshift roster due to a number of key injuries. The Jets have lost six games in a row, scoring more than 17 points only once over that stretch, and that came against the Titans last week. It’s worth noting that New York didn’t score an offensive touchdown in that game and was outscored 20-6 in the second half. Expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Bills suffered a 21-17 loss at Miami but easily could have won were it not for a Charles Clay drop in the end zone late in the fourth quarter. There were definitely some positives to take away from that game as QB Josh Allen threw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for an incredible 135 yards. There are no concerns at all around the Bills defense as they’ve given up just 52 points over their last three games, going 2-1 in the process. We’re being asked to lay a reasonable number here given Buffalo has already defeated New York 41-10, on the road no less, back on November 11th. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -4 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Packers mercifully ended the Mike McCarthy era after last week’s demoralizing home loss to the lowly Cardinals. Now I look for them to play with an edge with QB Aaron Rodgers essentially the play-caller on offense. This is Rodgers’ team for the rest of the season anyway and I expect him to perform well against a very beatable Falcons defense. Atlanta is in free-fall mode right now, having dropped four straight games, scoring fewer than 20 points in all four contests. The Falcons haven’t traveled well this season, going 1-4 SU and ATS on the road, with a number of blowout losses in the mix. Their lone road win came against the Redskins. The Packers may no longer have much to play for, but I’m confident we’ll see them show up for their home faithful at Lambeau on Sunday afternoon. Perhaps last week’s no-show had something to do with suffering back-to-back tight, emotional losses to the Seahawks and Vikings, both on the road, over the previous two weeks. Expect a bounce-back here. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Navy v. Army UNDER 40.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday. The 'under' cashes each and every year in this matchup and while we're dealing with a very low total this time around, I still believe the number will prove to be too high. Army has its best defense in years and comes into this game on an incredible run, having allowed 22 points or less in regulation time in 10 straight games. Only in the Black Knights season-opener against Duke did they give up more than that number. While Navy did score a combined 65 points over its final two regular season games, those performances came against Tulsa and Tulane. They'll be facing a much tougher challenge here. There's no question its been a down year for Navy football as the Midshipmen check in with just three wins to their credit. The familiar matchup should help to keep them competitive, however, and I believe that lends itself to another relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wins last Sunday, albeit in much different fashions. The Jaguars completely stymied the Colts in a 6-0 victory while the Titans rallied from a big deficit to get past the Jets 26-22. The Titans have now suffered three straight ATS losses. They haven't lost more than three games in a row ATS since back in 2015-16. Note that they went 3-13 straight-up that season. While this Tennessee squad has had its issues, it's not nearly as bad as that 2015 edition. Prior to last week's win over the Colts, the Jags had gone 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS over their last seven games. QB Cody Kessler made his first start of the season against Indianapolis and completed 18-of-24 passes but for only 150 yards and not a single touchdown. He benefited from playing from ahead in that game. I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate this time around and should the Jags fall behind, I expect to see some mistakes from Kessler against a strong Titans defense. That really should be the difference in this game - the Titans defense. They've been getting torched by the run in recent weeks and the Jags will get RB Leonard Fournette back on Thursday. With that being said, I believe the Titans will benefit from facing a one-dimensional Jags offense. Tennessee's offense has sputtered for much of the campaign and while I'm not sure it will get much going on the ground against an elite Jags run defense, I do believe QB Marcus Mariota can find some success through the air against what I consider to be an overrated Jags pass defense. The Titans have taken three straight meetings ATS in this series. They have the better SU and ATS record this season and they certainly have more to play for on Thursday night. I'll lay the points. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night. This should be a matchup for the Redskins offense to take advantage of with the Eagles defense completely injury-ravaged in the secondary. However, Washington's offensive line is also severely short-handed due to injuries and I'm not convinced that QB Colt McCoy will have enough room or time to find his targets downfield and expose the Eagles weakness in the secondary. On the flip side, we should see Philadelphia show a renewed commitment to their ground game with RB Josh Adams coming off a tremendous second half performance against the Giants last week. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' cashing in four of the last five meetings. That only serves to give us a relatively high total to work with in this key December divisional matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It wasn't pretty, but the Eagles got just what they needed last week, rallying to defeat the Giants at home to stay alive in the NFC East race. Now they get another slam dunk divisional matchup at home against the undermanned Redskins and I look for them to take full advantage. I really liked what I saw from Philadephia in the second half of last week's game as RB Josh Adams took over and showed everyone that the Eagles can still run the football. That means a lot as QB Carson Wentz simply hasn't lived up to expectations after a tremendous, albeit injury-shortened 2017 season. Wentz has all sorts of weapons at his disposal, and here on Monday night, I believe those weapons will be on display against a middle of the road Redskins defense. Washington's pass defense has gotten worse as the season has gone on and I don't see a big resurgence here. Offensively, the 'Skins are in tough with QB Colt McCoy at the helm. He made a couple of big plays but also made some big mistakes against the Cowboys last week. Even an extended week of practice isn't going to make much of a difference for McCoy, playing behind a shaky, beat up offensive line. This would be a matchup for the 'Skins passing game to take full advantage of with the Eagles secondary missing a number of key cogs, but I'm not sure McCoy will have any time or room to make those big plays. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-02-18 | 49ers v. Seahawks -10 | Top | 16-43 | Win | 105 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Seattle has worked its way back into playoff contention but needs to take full advantage of this slam dunk matchup on Sunday at home against San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off arguably their worst performance of the season, dropping a 27-9 decision at Tampa Bay. Things certainly won't get any easier here as they travel back across the country to face a highly-motivated Seahawks squad. Seattle's offense has really turned things around after looking punchless earlier in the season. RB Chris Carson has given them a lot of versatility while QB Russell Wilson appears to be healthy again, showing a lot more mobility than we saw in the early stages of the season. WR Tyler Lockett is playing some of the best football of his young career while Doug Baldwin continues to work his way back to full health as well. As long as the Seahawks don't completely overlook the Niners they should roll by two touchdowns plus in this one. Take Seattle (10*). |
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12-02-18 | Ravens v. Falcons | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens have seemingly turned things around with Lamar Jackson at the helm, delivering back-to-back victories, but both of those came at home against the reeling Bengals and Raiders. Last week marked Baltimore's first ATS win in its last five games and that only came thanks to a late fourth quarter defensive score. The Falcons have lost three games in a row following three consecutive victories. They're not in contention but continue to battle, coming off a hard-fought but ultimately fruitless 31-17 loss at New Orleans on Thanksgiving Night. They've had extra time to prepare for this game and should be comfortable facing a mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson given they face Cam Newton twice a season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Denver and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a lower scoring game than most expected last week at home against Pittsburgh but it’s not as if the Steelers didn’t move the football all afternoon long. The common line of thinking here is that the Denver defense will be able to manhandle the Jeff Driskel-led Bengals offense but I’m not so easily convinced. Driskel has actually had quite a bit of experience running the Cincinnati offense in the preseason and attempted 29 passes in relief of Andy Dalton last Sunday against Cleveland. I like the fact that Driskel got his feet wet with a touchdown pass to WR Tyler Boyd last week and expect him to build off of that 17-29, 155 pass yards performance against a beatable Broncos secondary. Driskel is expected to have WR A.J. Green at his disposal for this one as well. The Denver offense has been hit-or-miss for the most part this season but lately we have at least seen some consistency as the Broncos have scored 20, 45, 23, 17, 23 and 24 points over their last six games with the outlier coming in a pre-bye week game against the Texans. Here, the Broncos will go up against an awful Bengals defense that simply isn’t stopping anyone right now. Look for RB Philip Lindsay and WR Emmanuel Sanders to go off in this game. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the unappealing matchup between two 5-6 teams. I believe we will see more offensive fireworks than most anticipate. Take the over (10*). |
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12-01-18 | Clemson -27.5 v. Pittsburgh | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8 pm et on Saturday. This is every bit the mismatch that the oddsmakers are making it out to be. Pittsburgh ended the regular season with a thud last week, falling by a 24-3 score on the road against Miami. Prior to that, the Panthers were on a roll, having won four games in a row, scoring a ton of points in the process. However, they’re taking a big step up in class here. Clemson has gone largely untested since a tight game against Syracuse on September 29th. Since then, the Tigers winning margins have been 60, 34, 49, 61, 20, 29 and 21 points. The fact that they allowed 35 points against South Carolina last week should certainly add to their motivation level here, particularly on defense. Clemson uncharacteristically allowed two touchdowns of 60+ yards in that victory over the Gamecocks. Look for the Tigers to do a better job of limiting Pitt’s big play opportunities on Saturday. The strength of the Panthers offense lies in their ground attack but they actually haven’t made much headway in that regard over the last couple of games. Note that Pitt QB Kenny Pickett has thrown touchdown passes in only three of his last six games. He’s done a nice job taking care of the football, having not tossed an interception since October 6th against Syracuse, but that has more to do with the fact that he hasn’t been attempting many passes than anything else. Pickett has thrown for 200+ yards only once this season, and that came against a terrible Wake Forest defense. Take Clemson (10*). |
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12-01-18 | Memphis +3 v. Central Florida | 41-56 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Central Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While UCF enters this game with a flawless 11-0 record the Knights have to feel that the rug was pulled out from under them last week when they lost QB McKenzie Milton for the season with a knee injury. While the Knights are still a good team without Milton, I believe they’ll be hard-pressed to get past what will be a hungry Memphis squad on Saturday. Note that Milton’s replacement is redshirt freshman Darriel Mack Jr. who represents more of a running threat. When these two teams met earlier this season it was Milton that engineered a 16-point come-from-behind victory for the Knights. That was clearly the ‘one that got away’ for the Tigers and no doubt they’ll be highly motivated to make amends here. The effects of that loss to UCF lingered for Memphis as it went on the road and gave up 65 points in a blowout loss to Missouri the next week. Since then, the Tigers have gone a perfect 4-0, scoring 59, 47, 28 and 52 points in the process. Take Memphis (10*). |
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12-01-18 | Texas +8 v. Oklahoma | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas plus the points over Oklahoma at 12 noon et on Saturday. The Longhorns have already upset the Sooners once this season, why not do it again in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday afternoon? While I’m not going to call for the outright upset here, I do believe the Longhorns can stay competitive for four quarters and fully expect this game to go right down to the wire. Texas has suffered just two losses since opening the season with a stunning loss against Maryland (we won with the Terps in that game), those two losses came by a combined four points. It almost felt like last week’s game against West Virginia was the peak of the Sooners season as they pulled out a wild 59-56 victory in Morgantown. Could a bit of a letdown be in store here? The Sooners defensive ineptitude is alarming to say the least. They gave up at least 40 points in all four of their November games, winning by more than five points in just one of those four contests. Yes, Oklahoma’s offense is electric but it will face some resistance in this matchup. Note that Texas held Oklahoma to just three touchdowns through the first three quarters in the previous meeting back in early October. Take Texas (10*). |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo UNDER 51 | 30-29 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Illinois and Buffalo at 8 pm et on Friday. We haven't seen all that great quarterback play from either of these teams down the stretch. Northern Illinois QB Marcus Childers has thrown just three touchdowns compared to four interceptions over his last six games. Meanwhile, Bulls QB Tyree Jackson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just two of his last eight games. Northern Illinois was once a shoo-in for this game, but not in recent years. Meanwhile, the Bulls will be going Bowling for the first time in a long time, but they want more than that in the form of a MAC Championship. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Friday night at Ford Field and that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 8 pm et on Friday. Northern Illinois is certainly used to being in this game, as a program at least. However, not so much in recent years. The Huskies won't just be 'happy to be here' though - far from it, in fact. Last year, Northern Illinois played in a Boxing Day Bowl game and got throttled by Duke. They'll be looking to make a splash here in Detroit and head into this year's Bowl opportunity on a positive note. Of course, the same goes for upstart Buffalo, which enjoyed a tremendous regular season. I will point to the fact that Bulls QB Tyree Jackson threw for multiple touchdown passes in just two of his last eight games. He's known for his mobility but ran for less than 200 yards this season. I don't believe there is any sort of intimidation factor at play here. In fact, both teams come in feeling like underdogs. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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11-29-18 | Saints -7 v. Cowboys | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It was just a few weeks ago that most had completely written off the Cowboys and were calling for head coach Jason Garrett to be fired. Since then, Dallas has reeled off three straight wins to get back above the .500 mark and into the thick of the NFC East race. With that being said, the Cowboys are by no means in the same class as the Saints, and I'm confident we'll see New Orleans impose its will on Thursday night. Last week, Dallas benefited from a leaky Redskins pass defense, with Amari Cooper scoring touchdowns from 40 and 90 yards out. Don't count on a repeat performance here as the Saints defense has been seriously underrated this season. Of course, New Orleans' defensive strength is against the run, which should serve it well as it faces Ezekiel Elliott on Thursday night. Dallas' defense is no pushover either but I do think Drew Brees can pick the Cowboys apart over the middle with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Keep in mind, Dallas is still missing LB Sean Lee who is a big-time difference maker on this defense. Just two weeks back, the Cowboys weren't able to find the end zone until the fourth quarter in an eventual 22-19 win in Atlanta. I simply feel their offense has been too inconsistent to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Houston at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Titans here in a division game that I believe will be tightly-contested all the way. Tennessee was in a really tough hangover spot last week, going on the road to face a red hot Colts squad fresh off a stunning blowout victory over the Patriots at home the previous week. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Titans came out flat and ultimately got blown out. Now they face a critical matchup with the Texans, sitting two games back of Houston in the AFC South standings. I'm confident we'll see Mike Vrabel's squad come to play in this one. The Texans are red hot, fresh off seven straight victories. However, they've certainly shown a tendency to get involved in close games, with four of those seven wins coming by a field goal or less. The only two truly lopsided victories over that stretch came against two weak opponents in the Jaguars and Dolphins. In those seven wins, the Texans outgained only one opponent by more than 57 total yards (the Cowboys back on October 7th - a game they won by a field goal in overtime). Keep in mind, the Titans were just a one-point underdog in Indianapolis last week. I'm not convinced they should be catching more than a field goal here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Patriots -10 v. Jets | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Patriots have been sitting back during their bye week, listening to everyone sign the praises of the seemingly unquestioned three best teams in the league, the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. Coming off an ugly road loss to the Titans, the Pats have all but fallen out of that conversation and that should be motivation enough to get them on track with a big performance in New Jersey on Sunday. The Jets are mired in another lost season and now likely going without QB Sam Darnold for the second straight game. They have a lame duck head coach in Todd Bowles, who surprisingly wasn’t let go during the bye week but more than likely will be at the end of the season. I’m not convinced the players are ready to ‘leave it all on the field’ in an effort to save his job either. New York is simply undermanned and overmatched by a rested and motivated Patriots squad that should face little resistance in laying the hammer down in this one. Take New England (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Raiders v. Ravens -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark going against the Raiders last Sunday in Arizona but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, this time backing the Ravens in Baltimore. Oakland is not a good football team. This is not a good matchup. The Raiders defense is slow, plain and simple. Now they have to travel for an early start on the east coast, and face arguably the fastest starting quarterback in the NFL in Lamar Jackson. We saw clear evidence of what the Ravens want to do with Jackson under center, and that’s run the football. At this point of the season, it’s pretty clear that the offense isn’t really that well-suited to the injured Joe Flacco. I do feel that Jackson can continue to give them a bit of a boost. Defensively, the Ravens should be fine against a Raiders offense that showed some signs of life last Sunday but still isn’t very good. Note that in that victory over Arizona, QB Derek Carr threw for less than 200 yards and the Raiders top rusher was Jalen Richard with only 61 yards on the ground. Their top receiver had 50 yards. I could go on but the fact is, the Raiders are a bottom-feeder, and they’re a big underdog for a reason on Sunday in Baltimore. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 46 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in Seattle’s win over Green Bay last Thursday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson looks as healthy as he has been all season and has now thrown for over 400 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games. Add in the fact that RB Chris Carson has been productive in four of his last six games and this is an offense with a lot of upside right now. The Panthers benefited from facing a predictable Lions offense last week but still fell by a 20-19 score. There should be a sense of urgency as they return home this week off of back-to-back road losses. I’m still high on the Carolina offense, which has certainly had its share of big games this season. We can count on a big bounce-back effort here against a beatable Seahawks defense that just isn’t what it once was, particularly in the secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State OVER 66 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
NCAAF MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Utah State and Boise State at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. Unlike Boise State’s most recent big MWC test against Fresno State (we won with the Broncos in that game) which turned into a bit of a slugfest, we can expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Broncos welcome the Aggies to the blue turf on Saturday night. Utah State faced a bit of a challenge last Saturday as it struggled to get its usually-potent offense going on the road against Colorado State on senior night. I certainly anticipate seeing the Aggies offense bounce back in a big way here, however. Boise State’s defense does come in playing well but I’m not sure it’s sustainable against a top-level opponent. Note that the Broncos have allowed 44 points against Oklahoma State, 27 points against Nevada, 28 points against Colorado State and 38 points against Air Force this season. In other words, the Broncos defense is beatable. On the other side, Boise State’s offense is rolling right now, with QB Brett Rypien having thrown for 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions over his last five games. RB Alexander Mattison has racked up a whopping 299 rushing yards on 50 carries over his last two games and has found the end zone seven times in his last five. Utah State is 10-1 on the strength of its offense, not its defense and that should be evident against Boise State on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-18 | BYU v. Utah UNDER 44.5 | 27-35 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between BYU and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday. While we’re dealing with a low total in this matchup, it’s pretty much par for the course in this rivalry and I believe it’s warranted again this season. BYU comes in having scored a whopping 80 points over its last two games, but those came against lowly UMass and New Mexico State. Prior to those two victories, the Cougars had scored just 22 points combined in back-to-back losses at home against Northern Illinois and at Boise State. Utah has been feasting on offense lately as well, but again, it has had a lot to do with its schedule. The Utes Pac-12 slate was top-heavy to say the least as they opened their conference slate with back-to-back losses against Washington and Washington State, scoring just 31 points in the process. I don’t believe they’re the offensive juggernaut they look like on paper, and they’ll certainly face a tough test against rival BYU on Saturday. Last year’s meeting totaled just 32 points as Utah prevailed by a 19-13 score. Expect to see a defensive tone set once again. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Wake Forest v. Duke UNDER 59.5 | 59-7 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not expecting a defensive slugfest in this game, I do feel that the total has simply been set too high. Wake Forest has really cooled off on offense here in November, scoring 24, 27 and 13 points in winning just once in three games. On a positive note, the Demon Deacons defense has done a better job lately, most recently holding Pitt to just one touchdown until over midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago they gave up just one touchdown through three quarters of football against N.C. State. Duke suffered an expected 35-6 loss at Clemson last week but should bounce back here. I don't consider the Blue Devils to be an elite offensive team, however, noting that they've scored fewer than 30 points in six of 11 games so far this season. They've had a few scoring outbursts here and there, but in this particular spot, I feel they'll simply be looking for a bounce-back win following last week's ugly performance. Style points don't mean a whole lot in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Purdue v. Indiana OVER 64.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Purdue and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’m comfortable playing the ‘over’, even at a rather lofty number on Saturday afternoon in Bloomington. Purdue has now dropped back-to-back games, with the latest coming in heartbreaking fashion at home against Wisconsin last Saturday. The Boilermakers offense did keep rolling along in that game, with QB David Blough throwing for just shy of 400 yards and four touchdowns. Now he faces a sieve-like Indiana defense that has come apart at the seams down the stretch this season. On the flip side, the thinking is that the Hoosiers won’t shy away from another shootout, with Bowl eligibility hanging in the balance. Their offense stalled last week, but that was against mighty Michigan in The Big House. They’ll be taking a big step down in class here against a weak Boilermakers defense. Prior to last week’s poor showing, Hoosiers QB Peyton Ramsey had thrown for over 230 yards in seven straight games. I’m confident Indiana RB Stevie Scott will also have a field day against the Boilers’. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech -10 | 30-15 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisiana Tech minus the points over Western Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday. As far as I’m concerned, Western Kentucky has been one of the nation’s weakest FBS teams this season and I really think this is a smash spot for Louisiana Tech at home. The Hilltoppers have just two wins to their credit, with one of those coming in blowout fashion at home against a lifeless foe in UTEP. That lopsided result actually helps to keep this number in check. Louisiana Tech is coming off a tough one-point loss on the road against Southern Miss last Saturday but should bounce back nicely here, noting that the Bulldogs have gone 3-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming against upstart UAB. The last time we saw Louisiana Tech here in Ruston, it cruised to a 28-13 victory over Rice, allowing just one touchdown on a long passing play in that contest. Note that prior to scoring 40 points last week, the Hilltoppers had produced only 42 points in their previous three games combined. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Arkansas v. Missouri OVER 59 | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arkansas and Missouri at 2:30 pm et on Friday. There is high potential for a shootout when the Razorbacks and Tigers do battle in Columbia on Friday afternoon. Keep in mind, this matchup produced a whopping 93 points a year ago. While we may not get quite that level of shootout this time around, I still feel we’re dealing with a very reasonable total. Arkansas is rounding out a dismal campaign, having posted just two victories to date. We haven’t seen many signs of life from the Hogs offense over the last couple of games, but those have been in tough matchups at home against LSU and at Mississippi State. They’re certainly capable of busting out given the fact they’ve put up 31 points against Alabama, 33 against Ole Miss and 31 against Vandy this season. Here, they get a Missouri defense that has held up well lately, but has certainly been vulnerable at times this season. The Tigers offense continues to hum along, having scored 111 points during their current three-game winning streak. They should be able to keep on rolling against an Arkansas defense that has given up at least 37 points in four of its last five losses. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Texas -14.5 v. Kansas | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 12 noon et on Friday. While Kansas has certainly been more competitive than we’ve seen in recent years, I don’t expect the Jayhawks to be able to hang with the Longhorns for four quarters on Friday afternoon. Texas has passed most of its road tests lately, notching wins in Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech while dropping a tough three-point game at Oklahoma State. Despite losing QB Sam Ehlinger to a shoulder injury (he is expected to play on Friday), the Longhorns still delivered a two-touchdown victory over Iowa State on the strength of their defense last Saturday. I certainly don’t expect them to overlook the 3-8 Jayhawks on Friday – not with a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game hanging in the balance. Kansas left it all on the field in a 55-40 road loss against Oklahoma last week. Keep in mind, prior to that contest, the Jayhawks had scored just 20 points combined in their previous two games. There is blowout potential here, noting that Kansas has dropped 20-point and 24-point decisions at home against Oklahoma State and Iowa State, respectively this season. Take Texas (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Nebraska and Iowa at 12 noon et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair in Iowa City on Friday afternoon. Nebraska is coming off an exceptionally low-scoring result against Michigan State last week, prevailing by a 9-6 score. Keep in mind, just two weeks ago, the Huskers were involved in a wild 54-35 home win over Illinois. The week previous to that they fell just short in a shootout at Ohio State, losing by a 36-31 score. Those type of shootouts have been the norm for Nebraska this season so I look at last week’s result as nothing more than a late season anomaly. Iowa absolutely shredded Illinois last Saturday, rolling to a 63-0 victory. QB Nate Stanley’s streak of three straight games throwing for over 200 yards came to an end, only because of game flow. While the Hawkeyes are known for their defense, they’ve also been involved in their share of shootouts this season, winning 48-31 at Minnesota and losing 30-24 at Penn State and 38-36 at Purdue. Last November, Iowa posted a 56-14 rout of Nebraska. I’m anticipating a more competitive game this time around, and I believe that sets up well for the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Much was made of the Saints 'running up the score' against the defending champion Eagles last Sunday afternoon. I don't believe they'll have the opportunity to do so against the division-rival Falcons on Thursday night, however. Atlanta isn't a player in the NFC South race but is still focused on a possible run to the playoffs. Coming off two of its worst efforts of the season, it won't be hard to get up for this matchup on Thursday night. Keep in mind, going back to the start of the 2014 season, the largest margin of victory in this series was 16 points. That came in a Falcons win as a six-point underdog here in New Orleans four years ago. The next biggest margin of victory was 13 points - another Falcons win here in New Orleans back in September of 2016. Atlanta has actually gone 5-4 SU in the last nine meetings in the series. The underdog has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups between the Falcons and Saints. Atlanta has at the very least gotten healthier on defense in recent weeks. I'm confident we'll see the Falcons do a better job of keeping the seemingly unstoppable Saints offense in check than the Eagles did last Sunday. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. If we lose this play, so be it. I'm just not sure where the offense is going to come from with the Bears missing their emerging young quarterback and the Lions without their top rusher and one of their top two wide receivers, not to mention their starting right guard. Chicago is playing on an extremely short week after outlasting the Vikings on Sunday night. It has barely practiced in advance of this game and I can't imagine QB Chase Daniel will have the full offensive playbook at his disposal. Of course, the Bears defense is one of the few dominant defenses left in the NFL today. They'll have a major advantage against an undermanned Lions offense that is missing RB Kerryon Johnson, who is coming off one of the best efforts of his young career, and played a major part in the first meeting between these two teams this season. On the other side, we've seen the Lions defense improve, particularly against the run, since adding Snacks Harrison. While their secondary is missing some key cogs, I'm not sure the Bears will be able to take full advantage without Trubisky. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams UNDER 63.5 | 51-54 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'm going to take the contrarian route and back the 'under' in this showdown between the Chiefs and Rams on Monday night. The move from Mexico City to Los Angeles didn't have any effect on this total, despite the fact it would have set up even better for the 'over' in the high altitude of Mexico, where the defenses would have likely worn down in a hurry. The Chiefs defense in particular has actually performed well lately, allowing just 10, 23, 21 and 14 points during their current four-game winning streak. They'll obviously be taking a big step up in class here but I do feel they can hold up well. The Rams defense hasn't come close to living up to expectations but do benefit from catching the Chiefs at home at least. We certainly don't need a defensive slugfest to cash this ticket. A shootout and an 'under' result could actually correlate with the exceptionally high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 45 | 20-25 | Push | 0 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. |
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -107 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. |
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11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars UNDER 47 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The Jaguars will be playing their first true home game since way back in Week 7. They do draw the red hot Steelers in a favorable spot here, with Pittsburgh playing on the road in an early start game, where QB Ben Roethlisberger has typically struggled. I do see this as a solid bounce-back matchup for the Jaguars defense, which hasn't come close to living up to expectations this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense has quietly turned things around following a disastrous start to the season. The Steelers have to be licking their chops at the prospect of facing the Jags undermanned and overmatched offensive line. While RB Leonard Fournette did provide the Jags a spark in his return last week, I'm not sure he'll be able to do enough to make up for QB Blake Bortles shortcomings on Sunday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-18 | Arizona v. Washington State -10 | 28-69 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Arizona at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-17-18 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 47-44 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-17-18 | Nevada -14.5 v. San Jose State | 21-12 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nevada minus the points over San Jose State at 5 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-17-18 | Florida International -5.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
NCAAF C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida International minus the points over Charlotte at 2 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-17-18 | TCU v. Baylor -1.5 | 16-9 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over TCU at 12 noon et on Saturday. |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU OVER 72.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF Friday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and SMU at 9 pm et on Friday. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week and the lofty number is warranted in my opinion. When these two teams met last season they combined to score 111 total points. Memphis has of course been involved in shootout after shootout this season. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Tigers last three games. We've seen at least one team score 50+ points in six of Memphis' 10 games overall this season. There's little reason to expect anything different on Friday as the Tigers face an SMU squad that is fresh off a wild 62-50 win over Connecticut last Saturday. After getting bogged down offensively in games against UCF, Tulane and Cincinnati, they've scored a combined 107 points in their last two contests. At least one team has scored 40+ points in seven of the Mustangs 10 games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Seattle on Thursday night as the Seahawks host the Packers in an intriguing NFC matchup. The Seahawks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Los Angeles last Sunday, ultimately falling by a 36-31 score against the Rams. Seattle's defense is undermanned, missing LB K.J. Wright once again. The Seahawks have been getting torched on the ground lately and this one sets up as another unfavorable matchup against an improving Packers running game. Green Bay RB Aaron Jones is gaining close to seven yards per carry and should have little trouble carving up the Seahawks vulnerable run defense here. That opens things up for QB Aaron Rodgers to perhaps finally turn in the big performance many have been waiting for. I have full confidence in the Seahawks offense going up against a banged-up Packers defense. Green Bay is already missing a number of key cogs and LB Blake Martinez is questionable as well playing on a short week on a bad ankle. The matchup sets up well for Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. I'm confident we'll see him take a lot of shots downfield with WRs Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in this one. It's also worth noting that like the Seahawks, the Packers are vulnerable against the run, giving up just shy of five yards per rush over their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois UNDER 48 | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Northern Illinois at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Miami-Ohio's big home win over Ohio last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Redhawks face another must-win situation on the road against Northern Illinois. Miami-Ohio has dealt with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football this season and as a result we've seen it get involved in its share of shootouts. However, it's also worth noting that the Redhawks have held six of 10 opponents to 26 points or less in regulation time. They jumped all over a weak Ohio defense last week, scoring 28 first half points, although QB Gus Ragland didn't throw for 200 yards nor did they have a 100-yard rusher in that victory. Now they go on the road and face a tough Northern Illinois defense that has given up 21 points or less in five of its last six contests. We saw the Huskies explode for 38 points last week against Toledo, although I will point out that their offense didn't find the end zone until the final 30 seconds of the first quarter and not again until nearly halfway into the third quarter. Two games back they scored 24 first half points but then their offense didn't reach the end zone again over the rest of the game. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We saw the 49ers post an 'under' result in primetime last week, rolling to a blowout victory over the hapless Raiders. Meanwhile, everyone is down on the Giants offense with struggling QB Eli Manning at the helm. With that being said, I believe we're in for a rather entertaining affair on Monday night as the Niners host the Giants in Santa Clara. As long as the G-Men have the likes of RB Saquon Barkley, WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepherd and TE Even Engram, they have a shot. The 49ers defense is banged up and hasn't been good against the pass at the best of times this season so I'm confident we'll see New York find some offensive success. Meanwhile, the San Francisco offense looked rejuvenated with QB Nick Mullens at the helm and I expect to see some carry-over from last week's performance. Like the Giants, the 49ers do still have talent at the skill positions on offense with RB Matt Breida, WR Marquise Goodwin and TE George Kittle. The Giants defense is undermanned, particularly in the secondary which opens the door for another solid performance from Mullens. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles -7 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Eagles. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 7-1 ATS in the Eagles eight games to date this season. That means the SU winner is now an incredible 84-8 ATS in their last 92 contests by my count. Once again here, I don’t believe the spread will come into play. The Eagles motivational level should be high coming off their bye week as a win would put them a full two games ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC East standings while a loss would pull the two teams even. Dallas is a mess right now, playing on a short week and fresh off a two-touchdown loss at home against the Titans on Monday night, with a lame duck head coach in Jason Garrett to boot. This is a spot where we should see the Eagles offense take flight (no pun intended) with the Cowboys once again forced to go without LB Sean Lee. We’ve seen glimpses of brilliance from the Philadelphia offense this season but nothing sustained. However, here they’ll have another weapon at their disposal in WR Golden Tate and a fully healthy QB Carson Wentz off the bye week. Even without any semblance of a running game, the Eagles aerial attack should be able to do plenty of damage against a downtrodden Cowboys defense that has quite simply been asked to do too much on a regular basis this season. On the flip side, the Eagles defense has been terrific against the run which leaves Dallas in an awfully tough spot. Even with the addition of WR Amari Cooper, the Cowboys offense is still very one-dimensional and I’m confident we’ll see the Eagles force QB Dak Prescott into at least a couple of key mistakes on Sunday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Miami at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Credit the Packers for hanging around for a while against the Patriots in Foxborough last Sunday night but in the end they simply didn’t have the horses to keep up with Tom Brady and company. We should see a completely different story unfold this week, however, as the Pack welcome the Dolphins to Lambeau Field. While the Packers did suffer a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football last Sunday night, there’s little reason to expect those losses to have much of an impact here as the Dolphins offense is bottom of the barrel. Miami QB Brock Osweiler seems to be getting worse with each passing week which should surprise no one. I prefer to focus on the Packers offense in this one, as they should enjoy a tremendous bounce-back performance. Miami doesn’t generate any sort of pass rush and given a clean pocket, I’m confident we’ll see QB Aaron Rodgers pick apart the Dolphins secondary all afternoon long. While Green Bay has dealt with some key injuries at the wide receiver position this season, it has also seen its young players step up in a big way. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been the biggest benefactor of increased playing time and should benefit from WR DaVante Adams drawing away ‘Fins CB Xavien Howard’s coverage on Sunday afternoon. Tight ends have been blazing the ‘Fins defense and the Packers have one of the best in the business in Jimmy Graham. While his production has certainly dropped off in recent years, he is still capable of coming up with a big game and I believe we’ll see that here. We’re being asked to lay a fairly steep price with the Packers, but it’s warranted in my opinion. The Dolphins winning record is a mirage as far as I’m concerned. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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11-11-18 | Cardinals v. Chiefs OVER 49.5 | 14-26 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. This isn’t one of the highest totals on the board this week but it absolutely should be as I believe it has shootout potential. The Cardinals are coming off their bye week but prior to that we saw new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich take over play-calling duties and show some glimmers of hope for this struggling group. Rookie QB Josh Rosen certainly has potential and that potential can be reached an awful lot sooner by better incorporating RB David Johnson and WR Larry Fitzgerald in the offense. Even though Arizona scored only 15 points in a loss to the 49ers last time out, Rosen actually threw for over 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns with Fitzgerald hauling in eight catches for over 100 yards and a score. The Cards offense obviously draws a favorable matchup here as the Chiefs have struggled on defense for much of the season, even if they have shown positive signs of late. To be honest, I’m not sure we’ll need all that much from the Arizona offense to get ‘over’ this reasonable total but we may get it anyway. No opponent has truly been able to slow down the vaunted Chiefs offense and I don’t expect anything to change on Sunday afternoon. RB Kareem Hunt should have an absolute field day against Arizona’s dreadful run defense while QB Patrick Mahomes will have little trouble carving up a secondary that faces considerable drop-off after Patrick Peterson. Even if WR Sammy Watkins can’t go in this one, forcing even more attention than usual WR Tyreek Hill’s way, the Chiefs simply have too many offensive weapons for the Cardinals defense to contend with. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Georgia Tech at 7 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-10-18 | Washington State -6 v. Colorado | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 43 h 19 m | Show |
NCAAF Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-10-18 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 58.5 | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Duke at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-10-18 | TCU v. West Virginia -11.5 | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 40 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over TCU at 12 noon et on Saturday. |
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11-10-18 | Navy v. Central Florida UNDER 63 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 40 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Central Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday. |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
NCAAF MWC Game of the Year. My selection is on Boise State plus the points over Fresno State at 10:20 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points on a rare occasion where the Broncos are the underdog on the blue turf in Boise. Fresno State comes in as the ranked team but I'm not sure it will leave the game in the same position (not literally of course). The Bulldogs are off to an impressive 8-1 start but who have they really beaten? Their victories have come against Idaho, UCLA, Toledo, Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, Hawaii and UNLV. While I fully understand that you can only play the teams in front of you, I believe Fresno will be in for its toughest test of the season on Friday night. Boise State has suffered a pair of losses but those came against two quality opponents in Oklahoma State and San Diego State. I like the fact that the Broncos are battle-tested having been involved in back-to-back relatively close games entering this one, outlasting Air Force and BYU by a combined 15-point margin in its last two contests. Much has been and will be made of the quarterback matchup in this one. I give the Broncos the edge with experienced starter Brett Rypien. While his supporting cast isn't quite as strong as previous years, it's still solid. This is a game where I look for the Boise State defense to step up against a Fresno offense that has taken advantage of some super-soft defensive opponents. Take Boise State (10*). |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show |
NFL TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night. I expected to see a considerably higher number but perhaps the Steelers relatively low-scoring result last Sunday in Baltimore has helped keep it in check. We won with the 'under' in Pittsburgh's victory over the Ravens and also leaned hard to the 'over' in the Panthers rout of the Bucs. This is a favorable spot for both offenses on Thursday night and I believe both teams will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with touchdowns not field goals in order to secure a victory. This has the makings of a shootout. The Panthers offense was good, but perhaps not great against a weak Bucs defense last Sunday afternoon. RB Christian McCaffrey has taken his game to another level this season, which has had a lot to do with the outstanding run blocking by the Panthers offensive line. QB Cam Newton didn't have a banner game against the Bucs, but still put up solid numbers, and left some points on the field. He should be able to run wild against a Steelers defense that has had a tough time containing mobile quarterbacks this season. I also expect Newton and WR Devin Funchess, not to mention TE Greg Olsen to have a field day against this beatable Steelers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers defense is not all that imposing and faces a Pittsburgh offense that has been gaining steam lately, and really did a nice job of getting WR Antonio Brown going last Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger has enjoyed plenty of time in the pocket this season with the Steelers o-line doing a tremendous job protecting him, particularly of late. Big Ben should have all the time in the world to pick apart an average Panthers pass defense on Thursday night. The last time these two teams met they got into the 50's - that was back when the Panthers didn't have the explosive ground game they do now. Expect another shootout on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH UNDER 61.5 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio and Miami-Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Miami-Ohio's shootout with Buffalo last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Redhawks will return home and know that they'll need to play far better defensively in order to secure a critical fourth victory on the season. With only three games left on the schedule, the Redhawks will need to run the table in order to become Bowl eligible. They face a tall task here as Ohio checks in off three straight wins, scoring an incredible 160 points in the process. Note that Ohio has taken five straight meetings in this series, with the 'under' going 3-2 in those five contests. I like the way the Bobcats have been playing defensively holding three straight opponents to exactly 14 points. I certainly don't expect to see them repeat their 59-point explosion from last week, noting that they had scored 31 points or less in each of their first four road games this season including just 27 and 21 points in two previous MAC road tilts. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is the highest total on the board this week but it's warranted in my opinion. The Saints expected shootout with the Vikings fizzled last Sunday night as New Orleans jumped out in front and was able to control the game from there. Here, I'm anticipating more of a true back-and-forth shootout as both offenses are capable of scoring at will, and both will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with 7's on the board in order to secure a victory. The fact that we get this matchup in ideal conditions at the Superdome only adds to my confidence in the 'over'. The Rams will likely have WR Cooper Kupp back on the field and he should make an immediate impact against a beatable Saints pass defense. With all of the tools at his disposal, I'm confident Rams head coach Sean McVay will draw up a gameplan to scorch this up-and-down Saints defense. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense hasn't exactly lived up to expectations this season and the New Orleans offense continues to round into form, leading to a mismatch here. Saints WR Michael Thomas should have a field day, as should RB Alvin Kamara. I'm just not convinced either defense will have any answers on Sunday afternoon in New Orleans. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFL AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon as the Ravens and Steelers do battle for the second time this season. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the first matchup and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this spot. The Steelers just aren’t the same offensive team on the road, particularly in these early start games. The Ravens defense didn’t perform well last week in Carolina but should bounce back against a familiar opponent here at home. This is still one of the best defenses in the league and they’ll certainly be up for this matchup against an explosive Steelers offense. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Pittsburgh’s defense play better lately, essentially dating back to that last meeting with the Ravens on September 30th. Since then, Pittsburgh has allowed 17, 21 and 18 points during its three-game winning streak. The Ravens offense has been good, but certainly not great on a consistent basis, having been held to 27 points or less in seven straight games since exploding for 47 points in their opener against the Bills. Take the under (10*). |