Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-22 | LSU +7 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Situational Slaughter Tuesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers +7 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 9 ET - The Wildcats scored a COMBINED total of just 27 points in their last two games of the season and that included one against a Longhorns team that had a bad season. The Tigers scored 27 points in EACH of their last two games of the season and that included an outright upset win over a solid Texas A & M team which made sure LSU got their 6th win and is the reason they are playing in a bowl game. I look for them to make the most of the opportunity. Kansas State has gone from being a -2.5 favorite to now being favored at a full -7 as of game day. Yes there are reasons for the line move but long-time followers know I love to fade line moves and grab the value on the other side. Certainly the Cats played a respectable schedule as they play in the Big 12 but the Tigers and the SEC schedule was even tougher. Too much value to pass up on with the big points being offered here. 10* LSU +7 |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels -1 vs Baylor Bears @ 8:45 ET - Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense in this match-up. Also, could Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon be impacted by the fact he has missed some recent game action with a hamstring injury? I believe the answer to that will prove to be yes. Keep in mind, the Rebels allowed an average of only 18 points per game over their last 4 games. The Bears are off a tight 21-16 win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game but did allow 24 or more points in 6 of 9 games heading into that one. Also, in their win over the Cowboys they actually were outgained by nearly 100 yards but were the beneficiary of 4 Oklahoma State interceptions in that game. That is not happening again here as Mississippi QB Matt Corral threw only 4 all year and plus threw for 20 touchdowns. Also, the Rebels have an excellent ground attack so they have a balanced offense and a tremendously solid defense! The Bears are in trouble here and are over-rated in my opinion and the SEC foe how had only 2 losses this season will get it done. One of their only two losses was to mighty Alabama and the other one was to a very solid Auburn team that had almost beaten the Crimson Tide this season. 10* OLE MISS -1 |
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01-01-22 | Utah v. Ohio State -3.5 | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
CFB Contrarian Crusher Saturday 9* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - This is a contrarian play here. The common viewpoint on this game is that Ohio State is disappointed to be here. Lets not forget this is the Rose Bowl! Yes the Buckeyes were playing for the national championship last year and this year they will not be. However, this is an Ohio State team that is angry after losing badly at Michigan to finish their regular season off. The Buckeyes want to erase the bitter taste of defeat from their mouths here and they also want to get some redemption against a Pac-12 foe as their only other loss this season came at the hands of Oregon. That is the same Ducks team that the Utes manhandled twice this season. However, Ohio State is coming to play here and Utah does not have the explosive offense that the Buckeyes have. Look for that to be a key difference maker here and the favorite pulls away as this game goes on. They are far more motivated for this game than most realize. 9* OHIO STATE -3.5 |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -7.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The Wolverines are known for struggling in big games. I know Michigan finally came up big in their big game versus Ohio State and also won the Big Ten Championship over Iowa. However, that does not change the fact that the Wolverines have lost 4 straight bowl games both SU and ATS and now they face a team that might be the best team in the country. I know Georgia lost to Alabama but this Bulldogs team is really something else. They had allowed only 7 points per game in 12 straight wins before the loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now we get a chance to take one of the best teams in the country off a loss and laying only about a TD and we can fade a team with a poor recent bowl history under Harbaugh...I'll take it! Lay the points for a big play here. The Bulldogs defense will be the difference in this one. The Wolverines allowed 23.6 in their 5 games away from home before the Big Ten Championship. The Bulldogs never allowed more than 17 points this season until the loss to Crimson Tide. Michigan allowed 17 points or more in all 5 of those games away from before beating Iowa. The Dawgs D rules the day here. 10* GEORGIA -7.5 |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati v. Alabama -13.5 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
CFB Contrarian Crusher Friday 9* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats are undefeated and yet nearly a two TD underdog against a Crimson Tide team that has one loss on the season. Big mistake by the odds makers, right? Hardly! In typical contrarian fashion, laying the big points in this one! Look for Alabama to crush Cincinnati here. The Tide played a tougher schedule, have the much better passing attack and the much better run defense. All signs pointing to a blowout here as the Bearcats finally find out what it is like to take a major step up in class in terms of the high level of opponent they are now facing. They finally got their wish of being a part of the national title discussion and having that chance to prove that a smaller program can get it done on the big stage. Unfortunately for Cincinnati though, this story does not have a good ending. 9* ALABAMA -13.5 |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Peach Bowl Blowout Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - The Panthers have the better numbers overall this season and I definitely like their edge on defense in this match-up in particular. Yes there are some opt-outs for this game but that is effecting both teams. I also know the Spartans have the better recent bowl history but feel we have value with the defensive-minded physical underdog in this match-up. The Panthers hold the edges in pass defense and I like their ground game too. Strong rushing team and with a solid defense and they are an underdog. This one has all the right ingredients that equate to value. Also, Pat Narduzzi is Pittsburgh's head coach and he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan State from 2007 to 2014. The Spartans are coached by Mel Tucker and this is the first ever bowl game he has coached in. Grab the points! 10* PITTSBURGH |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Insider Wednesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:15 ET - The Sooners are the much better overall team in my opinion. Yes they have lost a couple games recently but they only trailed Baylor by 3 entering 4th quarter of the defeat that ended a 17-game winning streak for Oklahoma. Also, the Sooners other loss was by just 4 points to another strong team, Oklahoma State. That said, take a look now at the Ducks losses: lost to a Stanford team that has since lost 7 straight games and finished the season 3-9. Also, Oregon lost twice to Utah by a combined score of 76 to 17. The fact we can still get Oklahoma in the TD range for this game has me rating this play with my top play rating as I feel we have the much stronger team here at a bargain price and the Ducks have shown on 3 different occasions this season that they are fully capable of really disappointing in a game. They do it again here and the Sooners roll. 10* OKLAHOMA -6.5 |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | Top | 52-24 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
CFB Earliest Blowout Monday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack +7 vs Western Michigan @ 11 AM ET - In the regular season the situation here for Nevada would be devastating. But, in bowl time, when a team has extra time to prepare for a game things can be managed much better. Nevada has a number of opt outs for this game but nearly the entire defense is intact and it is made up of veteran players. On offense yes they are starting an inexperienced QB but the 6'9 signal-caller has had extra time to prep with this team and they are going against a MAC defense. The MAC has not performed well overall in these bowls thus far. So, what about the MWC? They are a perfect 4-0 and that includes beating a Pac-12 team (Ore St) and a team (UTSA) that nearly finished with a perfect record in the regular season. This line has gone from Nevada -3 or -4 to now the Wolf Pack being a +7 underdog. More times than not these line moves never work out like the betting masses think they will. A 10 point swing here? A MAC team favored by 7 over an MWC school? I know that Nevada also has an interim head coach for this one but he has this team believing and viewing this is as their "one game season" together. Practices have been spirited and you are going to see a spirited effort from the Wolf Pack come game time too. Look for the defense, mostly intact other than being without one top player, to absolutely be the dominant force in this game! 10* NEVADA +7 |
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12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | Top | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
CFB Perfection Play Saturday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals +6 vs Georgia State Panthers @ 2:30 ET - Value with the points here. Feel we are getting extra value in this line simply based on the fact that the Panthers went 8-4 ATS this season while the Cardinals went 4-8 ATS this season. There is really not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Ball State is getting about 6 points in this one. Yes, they come from the MAC and that conference has struggled in these bowls but Georgia State is from the Sun Belt Conference and that is certainly not a powerhouse conference. The Cards have had extra bowl prep time to prepare for a Panthers offense that is rather ground-heavy while I feel strongly that the Cardinals have the better passing attack and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one. 10* BALL STATE +6 |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida +7 v. Florida | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week Thursday 10* Top Play Central Florida Knights +7 vs Florida Gators @ 7 ET - Too many points. Florida has not covered 6 straight games. Central Florida, in this match-up, is like the little brother facing the big brother, an SEC team from the same state. That said, the more motivated team to (no offense intended) to be playing in the Gasparilla Bowl rather than a bigger bowl closer to (or on) New Year's is going to the Knights. They will prove to be the team that wants this more. UCF has won 5 of 6 games SU and here they are getting a full 7 points. Florida's only 3-5 SU last 8 games and one of those wins was by just 3 points and the other 2 were against Samford and a bad Vanderbilt team. The Gators just have not shown us much this season and I expect more of the same in this bowl game. 10* UCF +7 |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming -3.5 v. Kent State | Top | 52-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Daytime Dominator Tuesday Top Play 9* Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 3:30 ET - The Golden Flashes are a MAC school facing a stronger MWC team here. Don't be fooled by their 6-6 record. Wyoming got better on offense as the season went on and the defense, as per usual, has been the consistent backbone for this Cowboys team. That will be the key again here as Kent State struggles to score and also eventually gets worn down by their opponents ground game. 9* WYOMING |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa -8.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Daytime Dominator Monday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane -8.5 vs Old Dominion Monarchs @ 2:30 ET - Both these teams are 6-6 but Tulsa is the vastly superior team and played a much tougher schedule. Also, check out their performances against some quality teams and tell me if you think the Monarchs could have duplicated such efforts. Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State by just 5 and were leading that game in the 4th quarter. Also, the Golden Hurricane hung around with Ohio State until the Buckeyes finally pulled away convincingly over the final 5 minutes. Tulsa also nearly beat Cincinnati outright on the road. I can not imagine Old Dominion coming anywhere close to duplicating those efforts. Also, the Monarchs did not even play last season - covid - but the Golden Hurricane did and went 6-0 in their conference games but then lost their bowl game last season. Most of those players returned this season and their motivation level is very high to close this season differently! Last year they faced an SEC team in the bowls and this season they face a CUSA team. Huge difference and they should win this handily by a solid double digit margin. 10* TULSA -8.5 |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -6.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:30 ET - I know this UAB team is respectable for sure and I know the location of the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA also favors them. However, the line move on BYU from 8.5 to 6.5 has helped to raise this one to top play level for me. BYU started the season with 5 straight wins and ended the season with 5 straight wins. The two losses were in the middle of that were against Boise State and Baylor. No shame in losing to those two teams. Conversely, the Blazers were a 23.5 points dog versus Georgia and lost by 49 points. Also, UAB lost to Liberty by 24 and also got upset by Rice even though they were favored by 24 points in that one! Yes the Blazers should not have lost their game with UTSA and the Roadrunners did have a great season but the fact is UAB did lose it and they play in the CUSA which is certainly resulted in them playing a much weaker schedule than the 10-2 Cougars did! Look for Brigham Young to prove to be too much in this one. 10* BYU -6.5 |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CFB SEC Rout - 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 4 ET - Getting this many points with a high-quality team like Alabama that is in a rare dog role and 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog means I am in! Yes Georgia is having an incredible season but this is now Alabama's Super Bowl for the season per se and I just don't see them being denied here. I am not saying the Tide will indeed win outright but they should keep this close enough to at least get the cash. Two fantastic defenses and the Bulldogs do rate an edge there but, statistically, the Crimson Tide rate a bigger edge on offense. Look for that to be a difference maker in this one in a game that is likely to go down to the wire and that means having the points is a huge edge for us as an outright upset would not surprise me here. Grab the the points for added betting value. 10* ALABAMA +6.5 |
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12-04-21 | Utah State +6 v. San Diego State | 46-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
CFB MWC Blowout - CFB 8* Utah State Aggies +6 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 3 ET - So many of the Aztecs wins are tight wins. San Diego State just does not have the offense to win games by huge margins and I feel the Aggies will keep this one close. Utah State has the better offense in this match-up and in games against common foes, the Aggies were more impressive statistically. Don't be surprised when, in this one, it translates to at least an ATS win and possibly even an outright upset win. Grab the points in this one. 8* UTAH STATE +6 |
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12-03-21 | Oregon +3 v. Utah | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks +3 vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET - This is a chance at right back revenge after the Utes got the better of the Ducks two weeks ago in a game played at Utah. That game was at Utah. This one is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas as it is a neutral site game for the Pac-12 Championship. Oregon is 4-0 SU all time in the Pac-12 Championship while Utah is 0-2 SU all time in this game. All those games occurring since 2014 so this is not ancient history by any means. I look for the Ducks to keep that trend going as they will be much more relaxed in the rematch after playing with "playoff pressure" in the first meetings as they still had hopes, at that time, of making the CFP group of four. Look for the Ducks offense to be much better in this rematch and to do enough for the outright win but we'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* OREGON +3 |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
CFB Bedlam Blowout - 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - I know the Cowboys defense has been incredible this season but the Sooners offense can be special and that is particularly true in this rivalry game that always seems to bring out the best in Oklahoma. The Sooners have actually won each of the last 6 meetings and need a win here to make sure they make the Big 12 title game! Of course Oklahoma State has no shortage of motivation either but can the Cowboys not only win but also cover this spread? I do not think so and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least but seeing this line up to +4.5 means even more value with the underdog in this one. The Sooners just always seem to find a way to ruin everything for the Cowboys in this match-up. Keep in mind, Oklahoma State was a dog of an average of 10 points in the past two meetings but lost those games by an average margin of 23 points! The Sooners do it again as they have the better passing attack in this match-up and that will end up being the difference here. Oklahoma State has ended up over-valued in this game because they are on a miracle 9-0 ATS run. That run ends here! 10* OKLAHOMA +4.5 |
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11-27-21 | Texas Tech +14.5 v. Baylor | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
CFB Earliest Cash - 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders +14.5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - Red Raiders off a home shutout loss to Oklahoma State. However, they have performed well off a loss this season and have not suffered back to back ATS losses all season. Texas Tech is known for playing the Bears tough and they have actually gone 8-1 ATS last 9 visits to Waco! Overall, it is a 5-2 ATS run for the Red Raiders in this series. Yes, Baylor is a rock solid team and has Big 12 Championship Game aspirations still alive. However, the Bears are 5-2 SU last 7 games in conference action but only 1 win by more than a 14 point margin. The Red Raiders bounce back off their shutout loss. Their defense will bounce back too after allowing 52 points at Oklahoma in most recent road game but allowing only 17 points per game in the two Big 12 road games before that. 8* TEXAS TECH +14.5 |
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11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | Top | 35-13 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year - CFB 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates +14 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Pirates opened this season with a loss by 14 points. Since then, East Carolina has not had a loss by more than 7 points. Overall, the Pirates have won 7 of last 9 games SU and had covered 6 in a row before last week's 3-point SU win fell just short of the cover. East Carolina is catching the Bearcats off a huge 48-14 win over SMU last week. Cincinnati finally had that dominating win everyone was waiting for as their perfect season (11-0 SU) continues. However, the Bearcats entered that game on an 0-4 ATS run and I expect this road game against a confident Pirates team to be one of their toughest games of this season. This looks like a very tricky spot on the schedule to wrap up the regular season. 10* EAST CAROLINA +14 |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +2.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Rivalry Dominator - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7:30 ET - The Rebels defense has improved some over original expectations and actually allowing only 16.8 points per game last 3 games. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss is averaging over 515 yards of offense per game and that includes 232 yards on the ground! Compare that to a Bulldogs offense that is averaging only 61 yards per game on the ground on the season! So you have an underdog that should dominate the ground game in this one and whose defense has played better in recent games. I like my chances with the points here as I also point back to the recent crazy game with the Aggies where the Rebels had about 400 yards of offense in the first half but less than 20 points to show for it. I know what this offense is capable of doing and, in a rivalry game that is the final game of the regular season, I look for Ole Miss to bring it. Yes this will be their 9th straight week with a game but the situation for Mississippi State is not much different as this is their 7th straight week with a game. Also, in a rivalry game with so much at stake for each team, neither will be flat or playing tired here. Give me the points with an underdog that can run all over the favorite. 10* OLE MISS +2.5 |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year - 10* Top Play UTAH -3 - Love the set up here. All the pressure is on Oregon as they are trying to retain their top four positioning in the CFP rankings. Not only that the Ducks are on the road here and facing a Utah team hell bent on revenge after losing the 2019 Pac-12 Championship Game to Oregon by double digits. Look for the Utes to take advantage of home field here and playing more pressure-free than the Ducks. Of course there is a reason that Utah is favored by 3 even though the Ducks are ranked much higher in the top 25 than they are. Not going to say the odds makers are setting a trap intentionally but will say this line is set this way with good reason. Note Ducks are on a 4-8 ATS run as a dog away from home and the Utes have covered 68% of their last 25 games in Pac-12 action. The Utes were done in by turnovers the last time these teams met but the first downs were nearly equal in that match-up. Ducks averaging 28 points per game their last 3 on the road. Utes averaging 41 points per game last 6 games. Look for the hosts and their brand of physical football to wear down Oregon as this game goes on and they will pull away in the latter stages of this one for a solid home victory. 10* UTAH -3 |
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11-20-21 | SMU +10 v. Cincinnati | 14-48 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
CFB Afternoon Annihilation - 8* SMU +10 - The Bearcats have failed to cover 4 straight games. Those games were against weaker competition too. Now Cincinnati has to step up and face a tougher foe. Certainly the undefeated Bearcats have the much better defense in this match-up but SMU has a very dangerous offense and their only two losses this season were each by single digits. Last year Cincinnati rolled the Mustangs at SMU but the final score of 42 to 13 hides the fact that the losing team actually had a 22 to 17 edge in first downs! I feel this Mustangs offense, especially with RB Bentley now back in the lineup and off a strong game, is absolutely going to give the Bearcats all they can handle here! Mustangs averaging 42 points and 500 yards per game this season. Cincinnati may finally see their unbeaten season come to an end but, if not, definitely expecting this one to be decided by only a single score because the SMU defense will be fired up about facing the undefeated Bearcats and should have one of their best games of the season. Note that the Mustangs have allowed more than 28 points only 3 times in 10 games this season. In those other 7 games they have allowed an average of 19.6 points per game. This one goes to the wire! 10* SMU +10 |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls +1.5 vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - Huskies off another tight win and that has been the key for them this season but their luck runs out here. I know Northern Illinois needs just one more win to clinch the MAC West but I also know this is the home finale for Buffalo plus the Bulls need to win this game and their season finale next week to get to 6 wins to be bowl eligible. You also know the Bulls would love to play role of spoiler here against the Huskies. Buffalo does not want them clinching MAC West on their field! The Bulls averaged 36.4 ppg at home and allowing 28.2 ppg while Northern Illinois averaging 28.0 ppg and allowing 38.8 ppg on the road this season. 10* BUFFALO +1.5 |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - Why is Western Michigan favored by nearly a full TD over a team that shares identical records (overall and MAC) with them? Particularly one can ask that question when you consider that the Broncos are on the road for this one too! Well the fact is that Eastern Michigan is the much weaker team defensively. This includes the Eagles struggling against the run and the Broncos offense is the much better ground game in this match-up. Indeed there is a match-up issue here for Eastern Michigan and I look for Western Michigan to take full advantage! The Broncos seek revenge here for losing to the Eagles each of the last two seasons as well. Do not let the line fool you here. It is set this way with good reason and the road team has the edges on both sides of the ball in this one. As a result, look for a road rout here. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN -5.5 |
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11-13-21 | Iowa State v. Texas Tech +10.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #179 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +10.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:30 ET - This is a horrible scheduling spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones are off a huge home win last week versus Texas and have a massive game at undefeated Oklahoma on deck. That said, laying double digits at Lubbock, where the Red Raiders are known for being tough to play, is almost never a good idea. This will be the first home game for Texas Tech since they fired their head coach. This is also expected to be the first game for starting QB Tyler Shough (collarbone) since late September. Even if he did not play, which honestly would shock me if he did not, Donovan Smith was solid in the loss two weeks ago at Oklahoma when he replaced Henry Colombi who is now out for the Red Raiders due to illness. So you have the Cyclones in a bad scheduling situation and Texas Tech coming off a bye week and ready to win their first home game played since they have gone to an interim head coach. I know the Red Raiders are only 2-2 this season at home but one of those losses was by a single and, given the situation here, I absolutely expect this game to go down to the wire and feel we have fantastic line value with the big points. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5 v. Baylor | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #149 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners -5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - The Sooners have won 23 of the last 26 meetings with the Bears. That said, I also look for Oklahoma to cover this rather small number as they continue the long-term domination in this series. Baylor has lost 2 of its last 5 games both SU and ATS and prior to last week's loss at TCU was fortunate in rallying from a big deficit to knock off Texas. That said, I feel the Bears are still a little over-valued here and the Sooners pull away as this one goes on to not only remain undefeated on the season but to win this game by an impressive double digit margin. Baylor offense won't be able to keep up as they have been held to 31 or less in 4 of last 6 games while Sooners have scored 52 or more in 3 of last 4 games. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
CFB Earliest Cash - 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats -23 - Everyone is down on the Bearcats now because they have failed to cover 3 straight games as big favorites. You know what that means. This is the perfect time to back them. This South Florida team is not a good football team. They did get QB McClain back from injury last week but he threw 2 picks. Remember he also threw 2 picks in season opening loss to NC State by a count of 45-0. Last week the Bulls gave up 54 points to Houston. If they give up anywhere close to that point range here they are not covering this game because I look for an angry Bearcats defense to have their ears pinned back for this one as they look to make amends for last week's dismal effort against the Tulsa ground game. This is going to be a statement game for Cincy and they need style points for the CFP Playoff rankings and I look for them to finally get them this week. 10* CINCINNATI -23 |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ESPN Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #115 Thursday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels +7 @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7:30 ET - The Tar Heels are off a huge come back win but they sure as hell will not be flat here. Pittsburgh is at the top of the ACC Coastal Division which is where UNC also resides. The Panthers have just one ACC loss while the Heels sit at a disappointing 3-3. That said, I don't foresee the Tar Heels being denied here and love the value with the move on this one up to a +7. North Carolina has played the tougher schedule. That said, the Panthers have some statistical edges but some of this is also based on the teams they have faced. By the way, Pittsburgh is only 3-2 SU at home this season. Yes one of those wins was an impressive win over Clemson but the Tigers are really down this season. The Panthers other two home wins were against Massachusetts and New Hampshire! So the fact Pittsburgh lost outright at home to Miami and Western Michigan shows they can be beat here for sure. Panthers have moved into the top 25 rankings too which you can bet North Carolina is aware of as well. So in the lone game going Thursday in CFB this game takes center stage and the Tar Heels will have their ears pinned back going hard for the upset win on the road. They may fall just short of that but I am not doubting this potent UNC offense in terms of backdoor cover potential as well, especially getting a +7 now. The fact is an outright upset would not surprise me in the least as the tougher schedule they have faced is the hidden edge here that the markets may not be properly adjusting for. 10* NORTH CAROLINA +7 |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -2.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Early Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals -2.5 @ Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - The Cardinals are favored even though they are on the road and the Huskies have the better overall record and the better record in MAC games. What does that tell you? Exactly! In my opinion Ball State is indeed the better team and they have the edge at head coach. Keep in mind the Huskies have overachieved a bit this season and I believe last week's loss to Kent State is a sign of things to come. Was tough to see their star QB Lombardi get knocked out last week. I know he is expected back this week but NIU has other injury concerns too. The Cards are the healthier team heading into this one and they did make the mistake of looking past Akron last week and very nearly lost the game as a result. Ball State got caught looking ahead to this big showdown with the Huskies. But those kinds of things happen and what I like now in this match-up is having the better defense and the Cardinals and head coach Neu have beaten the Huskies and head coach Hammock in each of the latter's first two seasons in DeKalb. That trend continues here. 10* BALL STATE |
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11-09-21 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -7.5 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Early Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami-Ohio Redhawks -7.5 vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - The Redhawks disappointed me last week but I will come right back with them this week. Last week Miami-Ohio fell short versus Ohio University but they will now take advantage of a Buffalo team with a banged up quarterback and a questionable defense. The Bulls allowed 56 points last week and that was at home. Though they had a solid defensive effort in most recent road game that was against a very bad Akron team. Prior to that, Buffalo allowed 37 points per game in 3 prior road games. Yes the Redhawks D struggled last week but this was after allowing just 18 points per game 5 prior weeks. Also, they recently welcomed back their QB Brett Gabbert from injury and he threw for nearly 500 yards and for 5 touchdowns last week. 10* MIAMI-OHIO -7.5 |
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11-06-21 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 7 ET - I know this is a revenge game for Tennessee but the line has gone from Kentucky -3 to now the underdog in this match-up is the Wildcats! In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move. The Wildcats have the better defense in this match-up plus the Volunteers continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Kentucky did lose last week at Mississippi State but were 6-1 ATS this season prior to that non-covering loss. Tennessee is off a bye last week but the Vols are off B2B ATS losses and also have lost 2 of 3 road games SU and ATS. Long-term Tennessee has dominated this series so, just like last season, the Wildcats are certainly looking for more payback like they got with the 34-7 win in 2020. Note that one of the Volunteers road losses was at Florida by 24 points and that is the same Gators team that UK beat by a TD as a TD underdog this season! If you look at the line on that game in fact that means the Cats would be about a 10 point dog against Florida on a neutral field while the Vols would be about a 16 point dog to the Gators on a neutral field based on the 19 that was posted at Florida. As you can see comparing the 16 to a 10 there is a 6 point variance between the Wildcats and Volunteers and plus the Cats are at home so one could argue the line should be a 9 here and yet the markets are so in love with Tennessee here that the Wildcats, after line movement, have become a dog. I'll take it! 10* KENTUCKY +1.5 |
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11-06-21 | Baylor v. TCU +7 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
National TV Blowout - Rickenbach CFB Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs +7 vs Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - The Bears are off huge rivalry win over Texas last week in Waco. Now they go on the road to face a TCU team that has underachieved so far this season and now looks at this game as a fresh beginning without head coach Patterson. The Horned Frogs have a respectable offense and I would not be surprised to see the Bears be a little flat in this one after the big comeback win over the Longhorns last week. TCU has won 5 of the last 6 meetings and I fully expect them to get at least the cover here based on the situational edges and the fact this offense was putting up plenty of points prior to its last two games. Baylor has allowed 24 points or more in 4 of last 5 while the Horned Frogs, other than the Oklahoma and SMU games, have allowed an average of 26.3 points per in their other 6 games. Look for the home dog to surprise in this one. 8* TCU +7 |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech -3 v. Boston College | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Friday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Friday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies -3 @ Boston College Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Hokies and Eagles are both 4-4 on the season and Boston College is at home so some may be surprised to see Virginia Tech as the favorite in this one. Don't be though as the -3 should prove to be a solid bet in this one. The Hokies and Eagles have both been struggling of late but the BC offense has been a major concern and will likely be their downfall again here. The Boston College offense has been so bad that they turned to frosh Moorhead in place of Grosel last week but the offense still sputtered when he came in. The Eagles, in fact, have been held to 14 or less point in 4 straight games and now they face a Virginia Tech team that has only been shut down on offense once in last four games as they averaged 30 points per game in the other 3. On the season the Hokies also have played the tougher schedule. 10* VIRGINIA TECH -3 |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 10* Top Play UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns -12 vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Georgia State is off a big win over rival Georgia Southern and that was a road game on Saturday. That means the Panthers are on short rest after knocking off the rival Eagles and also means they are on the road for a second straight week. How good has UL Lafayette been at home? 4-0 with the last 3 of those victories being ultra impressive by a combined score of 135 to 27. That means average victory margin of 36 points per game. I know the Panthers have been a covering machine of late but this is a horrible spot for them and the Ragin Cajuns have the better defense and better offense and more balanced offense. I know the points are steep here but consider that Georgia State's four losses have been by 28.5 point average margin. Also, one of those four losses was to Appalachian State by a count of 45 to 16 and Louisiana beat that same Mountaineers team 41 to 13. Big difference! One won by 28 and the other lost by 29 points! I don't often lay big points but this is one of those spots too good to pass up. This match-up and including the situation has blowout written all over it. 10* LOUISIANA -12 |
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11-03-21 | Northern Illinois v. Kent State -3.5 | Top | 47-52 | Win | 101 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - Northern Illinois has won 10 straight games against Kent State but much of that history is dated for sure. The Huskies have regressed from where they use to be and the Golden Flashes have improved a lot from where they were. I know Northern Illinois has won 5 straight but their schedule has been more favorable than that of Kent State. The Golden Flashes have won 3 of 4 and do have the better passing offense in this game. I love the fact that the line has dropped a couple points from its opener. Extra value on the home favorite. I will take it. 10* KENT STATE -3.5 |
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11-02-21 | Miami-OH -7.5 v. Ohio | Top | 33-35 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - 10* Top Play Miami-Ohio Redhawks -7.5 @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7:30 ET - I am aware that the Bobcats have a knack for playing close games in MAC action. Seems like they just don't lose games by more than 7 points or at least that has been a pattern now for a number of years. However, this Bobcats team is struggling badly this season and has played a weaker schedule so far this season than the Redhawks and the odds makers know what they are doing by having Miami-Ohio favored by slightly more than a TD here. The Redhawks have just 1 loss last 4 games while the Bobcats only have 1 win this entire season! Unlike typical encounters, this one will not be close and the odds makers are correct on this one while the betting markets likely to end up pounding the underdog. Contrarian spot and I love situations like these. 10* MIAMI-OHIO -7.5 |
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10-30-21 | Penn State +19.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #189 Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +19.5 @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - The Nittany Lions are off back to back losses (both very tight defeats) while the Buckeyes have won 5 straight and are 6-1 on the season. That sets this one up perfectly and the points are just too much. Of course Ohio State has the much better offense in this match-up but this Penn State defense is very strong. Also, the Buckeyes recent blowout wins and strong defensive performances have been helped by facing 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks. This will be the toughest test that Ohio State has had in quite some time and I look for the Nittany Lions defense to be a difference maker in this game - at least in terms of the ATS cover. Keep in mind that Penn State was on a 3-0 ATS run as a road dog before coming up just short of the cover at Iowa earlier this season. But the Nittany Lions did lead that game 17-3 before QB Clifford went out with an injury in the eventual 3-point loss. They likely would not have lost if he did not get hurt. Also, prior to Ohio State getting the cover at Beaver Stadium last season, the Nittany Lions had covered 4 straight against the Buckeyes. These games tend to be tight hard-fought battles and I feel we are getting extra line value here because of recent results and those results certainly have been impacted by QB injury issues as noted above. So the value is now the massive underdog in this one and it is my top side play for Saturday. 10* PENN STATE +19.5 |
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10-30-21 | Texas +2.5 v. Baylor | 24-31 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #193 Saturday 8* Texas Longhorns +2.5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - Baylor is ranked and at home and has two less losses than Texas this season. However, the Bears are a very small favorite here. Looks easy, right? You know what means! Back the underdog in this one! UT has played the tougher schedule and that is part of the key here. I feel strongly that Baylor is now over-rated as a result and we'll take advantage by grabbing the Longhorns here as they get payback for losing here in Waco in their last visit in 2019. With UT off B2B losses, this is a great spot to back them! 8* TEXAS +2.5 |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa -11 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #114 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane -11 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - I know Navy has been covering recent games and Tulsa has not but this line is set at double digits for a reason. The Midshipmen have been very fortunate to get the covers they have been getting as their offense has been really bad this season. Also, they enter this game off a hard-fought loss to Cincinnati last week. They are on short rest here as a result. Tulsa, on the other hand, is coming off a bye week. The Golden Hurricane are rested and ready here. Tulsa does enter off SU wins in 3 of their last 4 and they have also been reminded of the fact that the last time the Midshipmen paid a visit here the Golden Hurricane got blasted 45 to 17. I look for the hosts to get some payback for that one as they also are a little healthier than they were 2 weeks ago. Rested, ready, motivated are the Golden Hurricane and they are hosting a Navy team that truly left it all on the field in that hard-fought loss to the Bearcats Saturday. 10* TULSA -11 |
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10-23-21 | Utah -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #373 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) @ Oregon State Beavers @ 7:30 ET - The Utes offer line value here because they are on the road so we can lay a small number to have the better team essentially just to win this game with the line at -3. Utah has won 3 straight games and has played a slightly tougher schedule too. Oregon State is off a loss and has lost 2 of their more challenging game this season. The Beavers lost at Washington State and at Purdue and each of those defeats were by 7 or more points. Utah has won 8 of the last 11 meetings and that includes a 45 point blowout win in their last visit to Corvallis. Lay the short number here as the Beavers certainly have improved and are absolutely not the doormat of the Pac-12 that they once were but, Oregon State is still not at the level Utah is. Also, the Utes are undefeated in conference games and, as the only team in the Pac-12 able to stake that claim, they are highly motivated to stay that way. The edge the Beavers have over some Pac-12 teams in terms of being strong in the trenches and a physical team against some of the softer more finesse Pac-12 teams, they just don't have those same edges against a tough Utes team that likes to play a physical brand of football. The road team gets it done here. 10* UTAH -3 |
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10-23-21 | Clemson +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #343 Saturday 8* Clemson Tigers +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET - The Tigers offense, as the whole world knows, has struggled badly this season. Also, Clemson is still winless ATS on the season. However, getting them now in a range of +3 to +3.5 points now Saturday at Pittsburgh is an incredible value. The Tigers offense has made headlines for struggles but their defense has been incredibly good. Clemson allowed 27 points at NC State but, other than that, the Tigers have given up only 9.6 points per game in their other 5 games. The Tigers did not allow more than 14 points in any of those 5 games. Now let's talk about Pittsburgh. The Panthers just caught the Hokies off a tough 3-point loss to Notre Dame. So give the Panthers credit as they held Virginia Tech to just 7 points in that game but, again, it was a horrible spot for the Hokies. Prior to that game Pitt had great defensive gems against Massachusetts and New Hampshire but who wouldn't? Exactly! So, that being said, note that the Panthers allowed an average of 33 points in their other 3 games this season when they actually faced decent respectable teams. Now, consider all of the above PLUS the fact that Clemson has played a TOUGHER schedule than Pittsburgh this season! So the point is I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt who the better defense is in this match-up. Also, the Panthers are ranked and at home and this is the first time the Tigers have been an ACC dog in over a decade. Clemson is aware of all this of course. They are underdogs and they are the unranked team and the Panthers are ranked. Watch how the Tigers respond this week given all of the above. 8* CLEMSON +3.5 |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina -5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -5 @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - We can lay a short number here to have a team that has won nearly 20 regular season games in a row. I'll take it! Yes I know Coastal Carolina has played a weak schedule but this is essentially the same Chanticleers team we saw last season and they knocked off a pair of ranked teams last season as part of their undefeated regular season. Coastal Carolina's toughest game this season was at Buffalo and they won by just 3. However late in the game the Chanticleers had a 1st and goal and were getting ready to make the score 35 to 17 to put the game away. Then it was the one and only interception that CC has had this season and the Bulls then drove 92 yards for a 14 point swing on the scoreboard. Honestly that one turn of events is simply serving to give us great line value here. Again, it is the only INT that Coastal has this season and this is a very strong running team with a QB with a 14-1 ratio as well! They are up against an Appalachian State team that is banged up at the RB position and off a blowout loss at UL Lafayette. The Mountaineers have turnover issues and that was the case in last season's loss to Coastal Carolina as well. In summary, the Chanticleers should have beaten Buffalo by a double digit margin and every other win they have this season has been by 27 points or more. Appalachian State simply will not be able to keep up in this one. 10* COASTAL CAROLINA |
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10-16-21 | Rice +17.5 v. UTSA | 0-45 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB 8* Rice Owls +17.5 @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 6 ET - UTSA is starting to wear down some. I know they are still undefeated on the season but this will be their 7th game in 7 weeks and they have been on the road twice in past three weeks and had to battle hard for victories. This is a banged up Roadrunners team that is starting to tire out. The Runners should still get a win here but, keep in mind, each of their last 3 wins have been by 7 or less points. Now UTSA faces a rested Rice team that has played the tougher schedule. Granted the Owls are not a strong team but they are off back to back wins plus a week of rest so this sets up well for them to stay inside the big number posted on this one. 8* RICE +17.5 |
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10-15-21 | California v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #122 Friday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks -13.5 vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET - The Ducks off an OT loss preceding their bye week. Oregon will bounce back strong at home here. They are vastly superior to this Golden Bears team. Also, the Ducks lost at California last season so this is a revenge game for Oregon. The Golden Bears are off a 21-6 loss two weeks ago (also off a bye like the Ducks are) and Cal just does not have the offense to keep up in this one. The Golden Bears only scored well in 1 of their 4 games against FBS opponents this season. In the other 3 games California averaged only 16 points per game. Oregon is averaging 40 points a game in their home games this season and will pull away to win this one by a big margin as they are angry off a loss and have had extra time to think about the defeat too. This will be an angry Ducks team in front of their home fans on a Friday night and this is surely to be domination as a result against a Cal team that has only 1 win this season and it was against an FCS school. 10* OREGON -13.5 |
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10-14-21 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama -3 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ESPNU Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #112 Thursday 10* Top Play South Alabama Jaguars -3 vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 7:30 ET - I know the Eagles have played the tougher schedule. But I also feel strongly that the Jaguars are in an ideal bounce back spot and will respond. Why is South Alabama favored over a Georgia Southern team that has won 7 straight meetings with them? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you. The Jags are going to get it done finally and put an end to that losing streak versus the Eagles. Georgia Southern is allowing 487 yards per game while South Alabama is allowing only 311 yards per game. After blowing their game against Texas State last week and losing in 4 overtimes, I expect the Jaguars to come up big this week and respond huge. South Alabama is off back to back losses by 2 points each and will get back to winning ways here. The Eagles have lost 4 of last 5 games and their pass defense is a weakness and the strength of the Jaguars offense is the passing attack. This will help key this home win so lay the short number. 10* SOUTH ALABAMA -3 |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Sun Belt Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #108 Tuesday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns +5 vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - Coastal Carolina is undefeated on the season and ranked #15 in the nation. What does that have to do with this play? Well, Appalachian State plays in the same division of the Sun Belt Conference along with the Chanticleers and they are hosting them next week. It is hard to imagine the Mountaineers overlooking a 4-1 UL Lafayette team but, if there was a spot for that to be the case, this is it! I like the fact that the Ragin' Cajuns lone loss came against a Texas team that showed again on Saturday (versus Oklahoma) that they have an incredible offense. Also, ULL played UT much tougher than the final score reflected. Appalachian State is a very good football team in the Sun Belt but so are the Ragin's Cajuns and this line has gone from a 3 to a 5 and is offering exceptional home dog value! ULL won last year's meeting and the year before they lost but outgained App State by nearly 100 yards! The last time the Cajuns hosted the Mountaineers they fell short and now they get some payback for that home loss Tuesday. In fact, prior to winning the match-up in December, ULL had lost 8 straight meetings with Appalachian State. Suffice to say some home payback is still on order! As a dog, the Ragin Cajuns have only lost the money 4 times the last 14 games when getting points! 10* UL-LAFAYETTE +5 |
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10-09-21 | UTSA v. Western Kentucky -3 | Top | 52-46 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #394 Saturday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -3 vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - I have been waiting for the right spot to fade UTSA and I believe we have that right here! Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and so it will not surprise you to see me making this bet. Western Kentucky is 1-3 this season while UTSA is 5-0 plus the Roadrunners have the much better numbers on defense and yet the Hilltoppers are favored. Looks funny does it not? Of course it does and you know that a situation like this is screaming "trap line" and I love the home team in this spot. UTSA has played the much weaker schedule and their luck runs out here. They had a dramatic come from behind victory at Memphis two weeks ago which was a game the Tigers gave away and had no business losing. Then last week the Runners barely got past a bad UNLV team. Now the Roadrunners are on the road and facing a Western Kentucky team that has played the tougher schedule and also is averaging over 500 yards of offense per game. The Hilltoppers defense is certainly not a strength but they will step up here at home in what is their first conference game of the season. On the other side of the field I just do not see UTSA as being able to get enough stops against the potent WKU offense. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY -3 |
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10-09-21 | Georgia v. Auburn +15 | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #358 Saturday 8* Auburn Tigers +15 vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 3:30 ET - Of course I have plenty of respect for the #2 team in the nation but this is just too many points in my opinion. Auburn has a lot of momentum after rallying for the win at LSU last week and have won 4 of 5 games this season. The Tigers lone loss was a game where they actually played Penn State very well in a game that, as the stats show, could have gone either way and that was on the road. At home for this battle, I look for Auburn to come up big against a very tough Georgia team. Keep in mind, the Bulldogs only other true road game was at Vanderbilt and so this is going to be first tough road test of the season for Georgia. The Bulldogs impressive win over Clemson earlier this season was a neutral site game and also has become less impressive because of the way Clemson has been underachieving this season. Just like that game, look for these Tigers to also put up quite a fight before ultimately falling short by just a single score. I like the value here as even a 2TD loss would still cash our ticket and I look for this to be tight throughout. The Tigers defense is quite good and the offense growing with confidence after sorting some things out at the QB spot. Grab the generous points being offered to the home dog as this one was a major mover from the early lines this season. Value! 8* AUBURN +15 |
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10-02-21 | Auburn +3 v. LSU | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (+) @ LSU Tigers @ 9 ET - I lost a lot of respect for this LSU team when they lost at UCLA early in the season. I know they ended up getting the win last week against Mississippi State but LSU was outgained in that game and it was a very fortunate win. So the Bruins and the Bulldogs were the only two tough games that LSU has had this season and they should have lost both games. I am well aware of the fact that Auburn lost their big game at Penn State earlier this season but that was a strong game from them! The stats were roughly equal in that game and Auburn is a perfect 3-0 on the season and could very easily be 4-0. Of course LSU is out for revenge after getting blasted by Auburn last season but revenge tends to be over-played. The fact is Auburn is the much better defense in this match-up and, on offense, has the vastly superior ground attack. I love taking road underdogs that play solid defense and can run the ball on offense. I know this is a night game in Baton Rouge and being played with revenge, etc. but this is not the same level of LSU teams we have seen in the past. I feel we have excellent line value here with the road team getting a full field goal. I also like the fact that QB Finley is a former LSU players and if Nix plays I also look to him be better after being benched last week. That was a wakeup call for him and this is a well-coached Auburn team capable of punching LSU in the mouth all night long. 10* AUBURN +3 |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Reichenator Rout - Rickenbach CFB Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins +3.5 vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 8 ET - When a team is favored by a field goal it is not quite the same as being a pick'em but the point is most games are decided by 3 or more points in football. The reason I mention that here is because I find it quite interesting that a team ranked #5 in the nation is favored by such a small number here. That said, the public is likely to be enticed to play Iowa here. Don't be fooled by this line! Yes, the Hawkeyes have played the tougher schedule so far this season but do not underestimate these Terrapins. They are undefeated on the season, just like Iowa, and statistically their defense has not been that far behind that of the Hawkeyes. The key statistical variance in looking at these two teams is actually on the other side of the ball where Maryland has been the much stronger team. The Terrapins offense, based on yardage, ranks among the best in the nation while the Hawkeyes offense production ranks among the worst. Iowa does hold the defensive edge but I am expecting a big game from Tagovailoa here and the QB helps lead the way to a home win in this one. If they do fall short I expect it to be by the slimmest of margins so I am grabbing the points here. 10* MARYLAND +3.5 |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Reichenator Rout - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -5.5 vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - The Hurricanes are playing their first ACC game while this is the 3rd one for the Cavaliers. However, I expect this actually to work to Miami's edge in this case. That's because Virginia is 0-2 in ACC action already and the handwriting is on the wall early for them this season. As for the Canes, they are expected to perform well in the ACC this season and enter this one at 0-0 with everything in front of them. Yes, they have two non-conference losses but they were to Michigan State and Alabama - a pair of 4-0 teams. Note that Miami just thrashed an FCS school last week which is a big confidence boost heading into this game. Also, D'Eriq King should be back after sitting that one out and his shoulder has improved. He was solid on the ground and through the air when the Canes beat a solid Appalachian State team a few weeks ago. I feel we are getting good value here with the better team and the home team and we get that value because they have two losses but to two undefeated teams. The Cavs defense has simply been atrocious this season and the Canes better defense at home will be the difference maker here even if King did not play or was limited but I do not expect any issues with that here. Either way, 10* MIAMI -5.5 |
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09-25-21 | Oregon State v. USC -10.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans -10.5 - The Trojans lost their most recent home game to Stanford and it got their head coach fired. Still shell-shocked from that, USC traveled to Washington State and spotted the Cougars a 14-0 lead. Their response? Southern Cal, let by interim coach Donte Williams, rattled off 45 straight points in the huge 45-14 win! That was against the same Cougars team that won at Oregon State by double digits last season and that was the only win Washington State had in their shortened 4-game season. The point is that the Beavers are not a great football program. They have gotten a little better but still they particularly are lacking on defense and I expect USC to have a huge day on offense as they are rolling with confidence after how last week's game played out. The Trojans have won 23 straight games at Memorial Coliseum when hosting the Beavers. That said, of course we still must cover the spread here but I love the fact that the line has dropped from 13 to near 10 now and QB Kedon Slovis is back for the Trojans here and pronounced 100% ready to go after dealing with a neck injury. Southern Cal just has too much talent and too many weapons at the skill positions for Oregon State to be able to keep up in this one. Yes the Beavers are off to a 1-2 start but they lost their only challenging game (at Purdue) and the Trojans have played the tougher schedule. Also, USC is hell bent on making up for their embarrassing home loss in their last game here so I look for the Trojans to keep their foot on the gas throughout this game and win by at least a 3 TD margin! Lay the big points and look for a home blowout in this one. 10* USC -10.5 |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 9* TOP Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5 - Revenge game for LSU on the one hand as the Bulldogs beat the Tigers in Louisiana last season. However, lets not forget what happened the year before than when Mississippi State was the host and lost by 23 points despite the first downs in the game being equal. The point is that the Bulldogs have been reminded of that home loss beatdown heading into this game and I feel we have the stronger team at home and in a great spot. Mississippi State is off a loss at Memphis that never should have happened as they outgained those Tigers by more than 200 yards! Now they get a chance to dominate these Tigers and I do feel LSU is a little over-valued right now. The Bulldogs have played the tougher early season schedule and the Tigers are of back to back wins but against Central Michigan and McNeese State. In the only tough game LSU has had they lost to UCLA by double digits. Simply put, this is not the LSU teams of old and they are facing an up and coming Mississippi State team that has impressed early this season and won't make the same mistakes this week at home which they made last week on the road. 9* MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5 |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State -7 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
CFB 10* Top Play Appalachian State Mountaineers -7 vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7:30 ET - Revenge game from last season as the Mountaineers lost 17-7 at Marshall despite having an edge in first downs in the game. Look for payback to be delivered here as Appalachian State has played the tougher early season schedule and also has been the stronger defense early this season. When the Mountaineers played East Carolina they dominated and the final score could have been even more dominant as the Pirates simply got some late meaningless scoring. That same East Carolina team just faced Marshall and the late scores were far from meaningless as the Pirates got the 42-38 upset win by rallying in the 4th quarter. The way each of these teams fared against East Carolina says a lot and I like the fact that Marshall just gave up 42 while the Mountaineers are allowing an average of only 19 points per game this season. Home team rolls here and wins this one by double digits. 10* APPALACHIAN STATE -7 |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State -5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -5 - Not only has Penn State won at Wisconsin, the big win they had over Ball State means they did defeat the MAC Champions of a year ago quite handily. Granted Auburn is a very strong SEC team but this game is at Happy Valley where PSU is known for being a tough team to face. The Nittany Lions hold a key edge here too and that is the fact that the Tigers QB has struggled on the road. While the Auburn QB has solid overall numbers in his career, the positive production has come at home whereas on the road Bo Nix has thrown as many picks as touchdowns. It is no wonder the Tigers have had some road struggles during his time under center. Long term this Auburn team has only covered 32% of the time the last 25 times they have been a road dog. Look for Penn State to carry momentum from their strong start to the season right into this game. This is a night game at Beaver Stadium and the crowd will be roaring with the ESPN cameras on hand. The Nittany Lions defense returned the majority of key contributors from last season's team and I look for this D to make things very tough on Nix and the Tigers offense as his long-term road struggles continue. The line from a 7 down to a 5 is leading to solid line value here as well! 10* PENN STATE -5 |
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09-18-21 | Purdue +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers +7.5 - I am not sold on this Notre Dame team. Not at all. They barely hung on to beat Florida State in their season opener. Keep in mind the Seminoles then lost to Jacksonville State last week so that Fighting Irish tight win over the Noles looks even more concerning right now. Then last week, even though at home, the Irish barely hung on to beat Toledo. While the Rockets are generally a respectable program, that is still a MAC team. Now ND renews an old rivalry with Purdue. Generally speaking, I like having the points in rivalry games if I feel the programs match-up quite well. In this case, I certainly like the fact that Notre Dame has been struggling to win games and the Boilermakers are off to a solid start. Yes the Boilers played a bad UConn team last week but they faced a respectable Oregon State team in their prior game. Boilermakers QB Jack Plummer has been playing very well and not making mistakes. This Irish team going to have trouble pulling away in this one and I look for it to go down to the wire. 8* PURDUE +7.5 |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville +7 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville +7 - The Cardinals lost to an Ole Miss team in week 1 that has certainly looked very sharp early this season. I feel we have great home dog value here as a result. Yes the Rebels proved very tough on the Louisville defense in week 1 but they were one of the best offenses in the nation last year. Yes the Knights are a fantastic offense too but the Cards were more competitive in week 1 than the final score showed. They had chances to put points on the board early and did not and the game got away from them after that. I don't see that happening again here. Central Florida is not the exact same powerhouse when they are on the road and this game is going to be a challenge for them. I would argue that Louisville has the better defense in this match-up plus the better special teams units overall and when you add that to home field edge plus getting about a full TD here as a dog I like my chances with the hosts here. Look for UCF to drop to 4-8 ATS that last dozen times they have been a road favorite. It has not shown up yet from an ATS standpoint but this Cardinals team is improved this season but flying under the radar due to an 0-2 ATS start. The result is line value in this spot. 10* LOUISVILLE +7 |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
NCAAF 10* Top Play Louisiana -20 - The Bobcats are a mess as long-time veteran head coach Frank Solich stepping down over the summer really seemed to hurt this program. While Tim Albin already was with the program, the head coaching experience here is new to him and Ohio University has really struggled. After a season-opening home loss to Syracuse by a 20 point margin the Bobcats should have been ready to respond. The fact they then lost again at home, and this time to an FCS program, speaks volumes about the state of this team right now. Certainly I also know that UL Lafayette did not look good last week and were also facing an FCS opponent. However, the difference is that the Ragin' Cajuns came into this season as a ranked team and were off a demoralizing loss at Texas to open the season. Louisiana was still getting over that defeat when they barely edged Nicholls State last week. That said, I look for ULL to finally play a complete game here and they will not take their foot off the gas here. The Bobcats have been particularly bad on defense early this season and ULL will pound away all game long. Also, Ohio U only scored 9 points in their only game against an FBS school this season. The stats of the ULL game at Texas show that the Cajuns were not as bad as the final score shows. That being said, we truly have value here even with this big number. I expect the home team to win by 4 to 5 touchdowns in this one as the Bobcats continue to suffer some early season growing pains under Albin. 10* LOUISIANA -20 |
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09-11-21 | Washington v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Top Play Michigan -6.5 - The Wolverines lost star WR Bell to a season-ending injury last week but the situation at WR for the Huskies is much much worse right now! When you look at who was expected to be the top 3 wide receivers on the depth chart all 3 are out right now! Of the 2nd teamers another guy is out as well right now. No wonder QB Dylan Morris threw 3 picks last week. How can the Huskies be in sync on offense when all the guys they thought they would be relying on to catch the ball are all out? Making matters worse, last week's game was a home game for Washington and was against an FCS school. Now they go on the road to the Big House and take on a Wolverines team hell-bent on having a better season this year. Michigan already pounded out a win over Western Michigan last week. Yes that is a MAC school but it was an impressive win nonetheless and these Wolverines are much more in sync right now on both sides of the ball than the Huskies are. Keep in mind, Washington played only 4 games last season and that was with a first year coach. Compare that to coach Jim Harbaugh, who love him or hate him, is now in his 7th season in his current tenure as Michigan's head coach and he is now 50-22 after last week's win. The retooled coaching staff under him has already implemented some positive changes for this season and I look for this very hungry team to "bring it" again on Saturday night and win this game by a margin of 2 to 3 touchdowns as the Huskies problems in the passing games are a major concern because they can not turn to the ground game for an alternative. Last week they were outgained 127 to 65 on the ground by Montana. The Wolverines only have Northern Illinois on deck so they were fully focused on this game as their toughest one in the first few contests of the season. That is bad news for Washington. This one gets ugly! 10* MICHIGAN -6.5 |
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09-11-21 | South Carolina v. East Carolina +2.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
8* East Carolina +2.5 - The Pirates opened up as a 2.5 point favorite here and have now swung around to being a 2.5 point dog. That is because they are facing a team from the might SEC. However, South Carolina is far from being a mighty team and just because they are in the SEC does not mean they go on the road and win this game. There are going to be struggles for the Gamecocks this season because they have a new head coach and new systems and they do not have much at the skill positions either. This East Carolina team is going to be much improved in their 3rd year under coach Houston. Pirates off 14-point loss but faced a respectable Appalachian State team on the road. The Gamecocks are off a 46-0 win, albeit against FCS opponent Eastern Illinois. The point is that the pubic is all over the SEC school in this match-up and you look at last week's results and it makes it seem the odds makers do not know what they are doing here. Long time followers know how I feel about that! A lot of respect for the odds makers and they had it right when they had the Pirates favored in this one. I am fading the line move and taking advantage of the line value. 8* EAST CAROLINA +2.5 |
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09-10-21 | Kansas +26.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 22-49 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
10* KANSAS +26.5 - I know the Jayhawks have been a horrible team but Lance Leopold is a great coach. Granted he got a late start with this team as he was hired later than most new coaches are hired coming into a season. However, he is still - especially with help of coaching staff he brought over from Buffalo - going to get more out of this team than his predecessors have been getting here. They did struggled to run the ball against an FCS foe last week but I like how the defense performed. I also like the fact that, even as bad as the Jayhawks have been the last two seasons, they won the yardage battle against Coastal Carolina last season and the yardage battle was nearly equal in the 12-7 loss the year before that. The point is that there is not such a great separation between these programs as you would be led to believe by the huge spread posted on this game. I look for the Jayhawks to still lose this game by a couple touchdowns but that still gives us some cushion with this line at nearly four touchdowns! This team is going to play hard for Leopold and his staff and last week's game against an FCS foe was a good chance for the team to work through some early season issues. No overnight miracles here with these Jayhawks but I expect a competitive effort here and feel the Chanticleers will also be content to turn to their ground game and just start running clock once they do have a big lead. 10* KANSAS +26.5 |
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09-06-21 | Louisville +10 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #225 Monday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (+) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET - I have plenty of respect for the coordinators for the Rebels but they could have their hands full without their head coach (Lane Kiffin covid) here and facing a Cardinals team that is on a mission for big improvement under head coach Scott Satterfield this season. The key about the Rebels is they have a very bad defense. The Cards are going to score points here. The other thing is that, is a good as that Ole Miss offense is, I expect the Rebels to get caught trying to do a little too much here. What I mean by that is mistakes offensively because, without Kiffin on the sidelines, the play-calling will not be quite the same. There will be pressure on offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to call a great gameplan here but will this hurt the rhythm of the offense? Keep in mind Rebels QB Matt Corral had some great numbers last season but if you look at their non-home games last season (this is a neutral site match-up) the Rebels went just 3-2 and two of the three wins were by 6 or less points with one of the wins in OT. Also, Corral threw 11 of his 14 interceptions on the season in two of those road games - at Arkansas and LSU. The road game that was an OT win was at Kentucky. The other tight win was the bowl game against Indiana. We all just saw the Hoosiers get smoked by Iowa Saturday. As for Arky, LSU, and Kentucky - none of the 3 teams had a winning record last season! I am not saying the Rebels will not win this game but I feel hanging onto any type of margin will prove difficult. The porous Ole Miss defense also gives the Cardinals great backdoor cover potential should we need it. Tremendous respect for the Rebels capabilities on offense but also note that Louisville had the #1 pass rated defense in the ACC last season and ranked 17th nationally as they allowed only 189.2 yards per game through the air. This game should be a battle all the way to the end. Grab the big points. 10* LOUISVILLE +10 |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Money Line Marquee - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #224 Sunday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles Money Line +240 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - No points needed here. We already saw a few upsets in Week 1 of CFB involving top 25 teams and we are going to see another one here in my opinion. This game is the chance to put Florida State back on the map in College Football. Why are they are only a TD underdog to a team that went 10-0 in the ACC regular season last year while the Seminoles went 2-6 in ACC action? Precisely! This Notre Dame team, of course, is still going to be a quality team this season. However, the Fighting Irish had so much turnover from last season's team. Particularly concerning are major losses on offense and they lost nearly their entire offensive line. That is bad news against a Seminoles defense hell-bent on playing much better this season. They added some key players through the transfer portal and this FSU defense is going to be much better this season. At home, with the nationally televised cameras rolling and being the only game on the big board, watch the Noles step up very big here and shock an over-rated Notre Dame team still living off last year's successes. This team is really a shell of its former self and is going to be knocked off right away here in game one. The Seminoles have a different look and different attitude coming into this season and have two quarterbacks available now with returning starter Jordan Travis and senior transfer McKenzie Milton both an option to start. ND has a new defensive coordinator who certainly comes in with a strong resume (was with Cincinnati!) but the loss of Clark Lea at DC and some key players on the defensive side of the ball that spearheaded the D before could certainly hurt. Keep in mind, in the first year under FSU head coach Mike Norvell, there were a lot of leftover players from the Fisher and Taggart days. A lot of those players, many unhappy, were dragging down the ship last season. Those guys are gone and there is a lot of strong talent happy to be here that is ready to step right in. I feel the Noles are going to surprise here in week one right away and Notre Dame lost more than half their starters from last year! Upset alert! 10* FLORIDA STATE +240 |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #213 Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -2.5 @ UCLA @ 8:30 ET - The Bruins have the edge of a game under their belt. Trouble is that game was against a Hawaii team that certainly did not look too good! This is the same UCLA team that only had 3 wins last season and the teams they beat went a combined 3-10 for the season. I still do not trust the Bruins QB against top tier competition. UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is going to have to prove to me that he can win a big game like this before I would hesitate to fade him. His Bruins just are not quite ready and this Tigers team comes into this game angry. Remember they just won the national championship but now are coming off a disappointing 5-5 season. Their defense was bad and they can not wait to make up for that. The process of the turnaround begins right here in Pasadena in Game One of the season and this highly talented SEC team goes on the road and makes a statement in their first game of the season. Love the fact that the line opened up in the -5 range over the summer but now is a -2.5 on gameday morning. We are getting great value here and keep in mind LSU projected to have a big bounce back season in a very tough SEC while the Bruins also play in a solid conference for sure but still UCLA nowhere close to the top tier programs like Oregon and USC in the Pac-12. Most of the rest of that conference nowhere close to SEC level and we have got great value with the Tigers here because everyone still remembering their disappointing campaign last season. 10* LSU -2.5 |
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09-04-21 | Temple +14.5 v. Rutgers | 14-61 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
NOTE: Match-up now going EARLY Saturday instead of Thursday EVENING so the write-up below just slightly modified for the schedule change: Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #229 Saturday 8* Temple Owls (+) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ NOON ET - The Scarlet Knights were about an 11 point favorite when lines first were released on this match-up. Now Rutgers is favored by 14.5 points as of very early Friday morning. I am grabbing the points with Temple. Since 2014 (the last season Rutgers went to a bowl) the Scarlet Knights have only two wins over an FBS school by more than 11 points. Those two wins were over UMass in 2019 and Texas State in 2018. Annually those are two of the worst football programs in the country. Now I am well aware of the fact that the Owls are certainly not a football factory by any stretch of the imagination. However, Temple was one of the teams most hurt by the covid-19 restrictions last season and have a relatively new head coach compared to Greg Schiano who was beginning his 2nd stint with the Scarlet Knights after already spending a decade here through 2011. The Owls head coach is Rod Carey who was only in his 2nd season here at Temple after 7 years as head coach at Northern Illinois. The Owls have enough skill and athleticism on offense to keep this game closer than many are expecting. Temple is also strong enough in the trenches to go "punch for punch" with a physical Scarlet Knights team. This game will play out as a bit of a war and I really expect the Knights to struggle to pull away and expect this game to be decided by just a one score margin. Great value with this line moving past the +14 key number. 8* TEMPLE +14.5 |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -3 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #154 Friday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 9 PM ET - The earliest numbers that came out on this game showed the oddsmakers set Northwestern as a 7.5 point favorite and the Cats now are all the way down to a -3 as of very early Friday morning. That means the betting markets are saying these teams are even on a neutral field and the Wildcats are essentially still getting the normal 3 points teams are often considered to have as a home field edge. I am not buying that. The Wildcats lost last season's game with the Spartans courtesy of 4 turnovers. It was their only loss of the regular season and is the first time in nearly a decade that they have lost back to back meetings with Michigan State. Northwestern will get some payback here. First off they are extremely well coached and have an excellent coaching staff put together. Secondly they are a system based team. They can not get the same talent that the bigger Big Ten schools are able to attract and bring in with their top recruits but it is their systems, smarts, hard work, and execution that make them a tough team. The problem with Michigan State (my pick to battle Rutgers for the worst spot in the Big Ten East) is that they have a head coach (Tucker) in his 3rd year overall as a head coach (2nd year with the Spartans) and he is trying to implement his systems but with many veteran players left over that were Dantonio recruits. The Spartans only other win last season, other than upsetting the Wildcats, was winning their annual biggest game of the year (versus rival Michigan). Other than that the Spartans had 5 losses and were outscored by a combined 202 to 70. Yes that works out to an average score of 40 to 14. I am not necessarily expecting that big of a margin here but this one will get ugly for Michigan State fans. The Spartans may get better as the season goes on but this team still trying to adjust to Tucker and his systems. 10* NORTHWESTERN -3 |
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09-01-21 | UAB -15 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
ESPN Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play UAB Blazers -15 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - The Blazers are a strong CUSA team. The Gamecocks are a solid program but are an FCS team. This is a step up in class for them. Remember last year Jacksonville State faced Florida State and jumped out to a 14-0 lead partially benefitting from an INT return for a touchdown. The Seminoles, who only won two other games last season by the way, stormed back for a blowout win. This UAB team is rock solid on both sides of the ball and very strong in the trenches. The Blazers defense looks particularly solid this season. As for the strength along the O-line and D-line that is where UAB will get the keys to this victory. Jacksonville State does have a solid QB, he was formerly a back-up at Clemson, but if his teammates are getting beat everywhere else on the field there is not much he can do. UAB begins the season with 4 games away from home (this is a neutral site game) so I expect them to be fully focused here and am expecting them to wear down Jacksonville State as this game goes on. The Blazers can wear teams down on the ground and the Gamecocks might be able to hang around in the first half but eventually UAB is just too strong and has the big talent edge and will eventually pull away and win this game by 20+ in my opinion. 10* UAB Blazers -15 |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #299 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -7 @ Illinois Illini @ 1 ET - Certainly Bret Bielema at head coach is an upgrade over Lovie Smith at head coach for Illinois. However, that improvement is going to take some time to show up on the field. It will not be overnight and this is simply not a very good football team. I am certainly not high on Nebraska either. But, as it stands right now, this Cornhuskers team is certainly superior to the Illini. Additionally, they are out for revenge from an embarrassing home loss to Illinois last season. I also love the way we have seen the line react on this game. It opened up at nearly double digits and yet has since dropped to as low as a 6.5 but then every time it gets down to 6.5 the Huskers get market attention and it goes right back to 7. So, as of overnight Friday heading into Saturday what I am telling you is as follows: The Huskers opened up as a big road favorite for a reason. The odds makers are not stupid. The line dropping to 6.5 from nearly 10 but then always getting bet back to 7 is an indication that many believe, just as I do that, that the Cornhuskers win this game by at least 7 points and I am expecting a win by a double digit margin. The Huskers and Illini return plenty of defensive starters. I know the Nebraska offense is not a strength, especially through the air, but lets go back to those defenses for a minute. The Illini return plenty of guys but allowed 35 points per game and ranked as one of the worst defenses in the nation for yardage allowed. As for the Huskers, other than the Illini debacle and getting destroyed (like most teams do) by Ohio State, they allowed only 24 points per game in their other 6 games and never allowed more than 27 in any of those other 6 games. Do not be surprised if the better defense prevails in a big way in this match-up. Even including the beatdown against Ohio State in their numbers, the Huskers defense ranked 50th nationally in yardage allowed out of 130 teams. The Illini did NOT face Ohio State last year and still ranked 115th nationally in yardage allowed. The Huskers have their problems, but they are the better overall team and they have not forgotten what happened last year in Lincoln either. There is no better way to avenge a home loss than by getting payback on enemy turf and returning the favor. I fully expect the Cornhuskers to get their revenge in Champaign on Saturday. 10* NEBRASKA -7 |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #499 Monday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8 ET - Of course it is not easy to argue against a team that is 11-0 on the season but that argument is made a little easier when you're playing on a team that is 7-0 this season plus catching nearly double digits in points in the match-up. The fact is that Ohio State is a high quality program and there were a few times this season that Alabama's defense certainly was made to look susceptible. That said, with a potent ground attack and the dynamic Justin Fields at QB, I am looking for the Buckeyes to be in this game all the way. The Crimson Tide caught a break with facing an over-rated Notre Dame last week while Ohio State was very impressive facing a Clemson team that only struggled this season when Trevor Lawrence was not available at QB. That said, the Buckeyes huge win last week over the Tigers should do more than raise a few eyebrows. What it does is validate that Ohio State is not only strong enough to trade scores with Alabama, they just might be strong enough to get the upset win too. That said, there is no way I am passing up on taking more than TD in points here. The Buckeyes allowed 22 points per game this season. The Crimson Tide have also put some impressive numbers together this season (of course) but did allow an average of 35.5 points per game in their games against Texas A & M, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Florida. This should be a great game and I expect it to be decided by just a single score either way. Yes an upset would not surprise me in the least. That said, give me the big points. 10* OHIO STATE |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Bowl Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #496 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 4 ET - The Cyclones have all the edges here in my opinion. They are the stronger team in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Iowa State also has the coaching edge with Campbell over Cristobal. The Cyclones are stronger at skill positions like QB and WR and also have the better overall defense. Iowa State allowed an average of only 13.3 points per game over their final 4 games of the season and just 18.1 points per game over their final 8 games of the season. As for the Ducks, they only played in 6 games this season and they allowed an average of 30 points per game over their final 5 games of the season. The Cyclones also faced a tougher overall schedule than Oregon did. Battle-tested Iowa State is also happy to be making their first- ever trip to the Fiesta Bowl while the Ducks have been here often plus, being a Pac-12 team, already play in plenty of games in Arizona on an annual basis. The situation here simply creates a hungrier team on the Cyclones sideline and given that plus the edges they have all over the field, I expect them to cover this number rather easily as they establish their ground game with Breece Hall leading the way. The fact the Ducks have to give a lot of respect to Iowa State's potent ground game of course means that things will be open for some solid opportunities through the air for veteran QB Brock Purdy. The result is a blowout win here as the Cyclones defense will also hold the Ducks in check here and that allows the favorite to pull away as this game goes on. 10* IOWA STATE |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Month Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #333 Friday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Of course I am well aware of the fact that Ohio State played only a half dozen games this season while Clemson will reach the dozen mark in games by playing in this one. While some look at that as a disadvantage for the Buckeyes or that they don't belong here, the fact is it actually may be a big edge. Ohio State could prove to be the fresher team plus they also are heavily playing the revenge angle and underdog mentality and the disrespect card heading into this one. That disrespect card comes, in part, from Tigers coach Swinney ranking Ohio State 11th in the nation because they only played 6 games. Look for Ohio State to use this as additional motivation here and I expect a valiant effort from the revenge-minded underdogs in this one. Of course Clemson is a fantastic team but the fact they barely beat Boston College and lost to Notre Dame (when the Tigers were without Lawrence) shows that if the Buckeyes do a decent job limiting big opportunities for QB Lawrence in this one, they will be more successful than most are expecting. I love all the revenge and motivational edges here plus the fact we are getting more than TD with the underdog Ohio State in this one. Prior to being held to 22 points by a very strong Northwestern defense, the Buckeyes averaged 46.6 points per game in their first 5 games this season. QB Fields and company can give this solid Clemson defense trouble and I am expecting an upset win here which means I certainly am comfortable grabbing the points. If the Buckeyes do fall short I expect it to be by only a single score. 10* OHIO STATE |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia -7.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Earliest Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #328 Friday 8* Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ Noon ET - This one should get ugly. Why is a 2-loss Georgia team favored over an undefeated Cincinnati team? Exactly! I have been patiently waiting for this one and now look forward to the onslaught. The Bearcats played such a weak schedule that is laughable. Even with that they only won their last two games by 3 points apiece but again my point is they might have won half their games if they played the same schedule Georgia did. The key word there is might! As I noticed in some of my prior write-ups in successfully going against the Bearcats, they were actually outstatted in a couple of their big wins but most don't look at that, most just look at the scoreboard finals. That is what is also helping to give us line value here in going against the Cats. I know Georgia has to win this by more than a TD for us to cash this ticket but I do fully expect that. They are the better team in all facets of the game and in their true road games this season they allowed 16 points or less in 4 of 5 games. The Bearcats had more defensive struggles in some of their bigger games than what showed up on the scoreboard but even just looking at their final two games they did allow 28.5 points per game to Tulsa and Central Florida. That said, Georgia would be a double digit favorite if facing either one of those teams. Given all of the above, I do expect the Bulldogs to take this one by double digits as well. 8* GEORGIA |
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12-31-20 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Army | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Bowl Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #211 Thursday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 4 ET - The Mountaineers played a much tougher schedule than Army. Also, West Virginia is off a loss in their regular season finale but went 3-0 SU / ATS this season when entering a game off a loss. Coach Brown will be coaching West Virginia in a bowl game for the first time and I fully believe there is some extra incentive for him to get the win in this one. The line was as high as a 7.5 as it opened up and now it is down to a 6.5 as of game day morning. I feel this is giving us excellent line value in this spot as it crossed the key number of 7. Of course Army fits the classic role of a run-heavy underdog and they have a tendency to perform well in this role. However, Brown was previously the coach at Troy where current WVU DC Koenning was also the defensive coordinator. Brown and Koenning, as a result of experience in the Sun Belt Conference faced the option from time to time. Of course they also have had extra time to prepare for it here with this being a bowl game. That said, Army's offense is likely to struggle more than people realize here and they scored an average of only 16 points their last 4 games of the season. The Mountaineers are very solid defensively, especially considering some of the tough Big 12 offenses they faced, and they will hold Army's one-dimensional attack in check here. When West Virginia has the ball look for an all-out aerial assault as they averaged 277 passing yards per game. Also, coach Brown is 3-0 SU and ATS in bowl games and I look for him to make it 4-0 ATS in bowls while the Mountaineers also make it 4-0 ATS for the season when entering a game off a SU loss. This one is a blowout for the favorite. 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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12-30-20 | Florida +7 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #315 Wednesday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (+) vs Oklahoma Sooners @ 8 ET - Of course I am well aware of all the issues that are impacting the Gators passing game for this one. However, this line is now all the way up to a +7 and this is a proud SEC team that enters this game off back to back losses to end the regular season. That was preceded by a 3-game stretch in which Florida won all 3 games and did not allow more than 19 points in any of the 3 victories. The Sooners ended the season on a red hot winning run and I know their numbers on defense have looked great. However, Oklahoma did face a lot of struggling and weak offenses to close out the season. Keep in mind, in games against Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas the Sooners did allow a ton of points. Even with all the missing players, there is certainly hope for this SEC offense against that Sooner D and, at the same time, I definitely expect a bounce back effort from the Gators defense. They allowed 44.5 points per game over their past two games of the season and both were losses. Bounce back time here and, in terms of the big line, note that the Gators have not lost a game by more than 6 points all season. Grab the big points here as we go contrarian and fade the line move. 10* FLORIDA |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -7 | Top | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Bowl Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #298 Tuesday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 9 ET - the buffaloes entered their season finale with a chance to play for the pac-12 title...instead, colorado blew a 21-10 lead and lost 38 to 21 to utah...after that disheartening loss i am looking for the buffaloes to get slaughtered here...yes, i know the longhorns had some defensive players opt out of this game but there are others behind them who have been waiting in the wings and chomping at the bit to get in there...watch the new blood on defense really step up in this game with an inspired effort...not only that, the strength of this horns team is its offense anyway and they will put on a show for the hometown faithful in this one...yes this game is in san antonio rather than austin but there is a huge contingent of longhorns fans in san antonio plus many will be driving down from austin for this game...the alamodome, even with restrictions due to covid, will still be loaded with texas fans...under coach herman, this is a 4th straight bowl trip and they were dog in each of the first three but not only covered those but won them outright...coach herman takes the bowls seriously and will again have his team ready here...they make it 4 in a row both straight up and against the spread with another big win here...last season the horns beat utah 38-10...yes it was the utes that just blasted the buffaloes in their final game this season and they are in for a rude awakening here as texas rolls...unlike ut, colorado is in a bowl for the first time in 4 years and they got blasted in that one by a 38-8 count and that was right here in this bowl...maybe things will change with head coach dorrell now calling the shots?...unlikely as he went 1-3 ats in bowls as head coach of ucla...this one is all longhorns to the delight of the home state faithful who will pack as many as they can into the alamodome in san antonio...with the line all the way down to a -7 after opening up near two touchdowns, the value is off the charts with this one...10* TEXAS |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Bowl Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #283 Saturday 10* Top Play Liberty Flames vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 7:30 ET - The Chanticleers complained about their ranking and their bowl game. Now watch this undefeated Coastal Carolina team lose outright. That is what I fully expect but I will grab the points as added insurance here especially since the line has moved to a full +7. I know that the Chanticleers feel disrespected but this Liberty team is on their level and is likely to surprise here given that Coastal Carolina could be lamenting their bowl position. When you are more worried about what could have been or what should have been rather than the task at hand you often are setting yourself up for disappointment. I fully believe that will prove to be the case here with the Chanticleers. Yes Coastal Carolina is undefeated on the season but they faced a weak schedule and now face a Liberty team that went 9-1 on the season. Also, the Flames did face 3 ACC teams and they won two of those games outright and lost the 3rd by just a single point! Liberty is a high-quality team but the marketplace is wrapped up in Coastal Carolina's 11-0 record. Of course we can use that to our advantage and grab the line value with the big dog Flames in this one. 10* LIBERTY |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Perfection Play - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #279 Friday 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (+) vs Buffalo Bulls in Camellia Bowl @ Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, AL @ 2:30 ET - Both teams played weak schedules this season but the Bulls schedule was even weaker. Also, Buffalo allowed 38 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games while the Thundering Herd never allowed more than 22 points in a game this season. On the full season, Marshall allowed an average of only 12.6 points per game and they do match up very well with the Bulls. That is because Marshall's strength on defense is against the run and if Buffalo struggles to establish their ground game here they could be in trouble. I am well aware of the fact that the Marshall offense struggled in their final two games of the season which were their only 2 losses on the year. However, the Thundering Herd did average nearly 38 points per game in their 7 victories this season. This team has plenty of confidence and has an excellent track record in bowls and so does their head coach Holiday. I also like the fact that Holiday had won 5 straight bowls before last season's bowl loss while Buffalo was 0-3 in bowl games until they won last season. That sets this one up perfectly for an upset here. Grab the points with the better defensive team in this one. 10* MARSHALL |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +10 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #277 Thursday 10* Top Play Hawaii Warriors (+) vs Houston Cougars in New Mexico Bowl at Frisco, TX @ 3:30 ET - Believe it or not an underdog is going to eventually cover in a bowl game in this bowl season and I expect that to finally happen today. Compared to the closing number (and with Nevada reflected as a -1 in their win over Tulane), there has not been a single underdog cover in the bowls yet. That changes today. Windy conditions expected for this one this afternoon in Frisco, TX. That will make it difficult for pass-happy Houston to pull away in this game. The Cougars are being asked to cover a double digit spread here and I just don't see that happening here. While one could argue that the location of this game favors Houston since it is in their home state, I question the Cougars motivation here. How happy can they be to go to a pre-Christmas bowl game and not even leave their home state? Teams want bigger and better things! In other words, Hawaii is likely more excited to be here and playing in a bowl game far away from home than a Cougars team that certainly wanted something more than playing a bowl game in their home state and sitting with a 3-4 record on the season. It also does not bode well for Houston that their head coach (Holgorsen) does not have a good history in bowls with just 2 wins in 7 tries and only a 1-6 ATS record in bowl appearances. The Cougars wrapped up the season on a disappointing 1-3 SU and ATS skid while the Warriors won 2 of their last 3 games SU and also had an 8 point loss to Boise State that saw them cover as a big double-digit dog. Look for the hungry dog to get the money in this one. 10* HAWAII |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Perfection Play - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #275 Wednesday 10* Top Play Florida Atlantic Owls (+) vs Memphis Tigers in Montgomery Bowl in Montgomery, AL @ 7 ET - The Owls are 4-0 SU and ATS all-time in bowls. The Tigers are 0-5 SU and ATS their their last 5 bowls. Indeed this is literally the perfect spot to fade Memphis and play on Florida Atlantic. I know the Owls are off an embarrassing season-ending loss which also was their 2nd straight defeat after going 5-1 in their first 6 games of the season. However, FAU was on short rest when they faced Southern Mississippi and, prior to that game, the Owls had not allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. In fact, Florida Atlantic had allowed an average only 12.4 points per game on the season. That said, the fact we are catching nearly double digits here with the Owls as a big dog against Memphis is certainly intriguing. FAU went 2-2 ATS in road game this season and scored 31 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games away from home. Memphis went 0-4 ATS in road games this season and averaged only 17 points per game in those games. The one edge the Tigers have against the Owls here is on the offensive side of the ball BUT Memphis did not travel well this season. That said, how much of an edge is it really? Exactly! That is why I like the stronger defense and more successful bowl team to continue their solid run in post-season affairs with yet another ATS cover - their 5th in a row - while the Tigers drop their 6th straight bowl game ATS. Memphis might finally get off the schneid and get a SU win here but look for it to be just a single score if they do. The Owls defense comes to play in this one and keeps them in this game. The Tigers strength is their passing attack but FAU has a solid pass defense. 10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
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12-22-20 | Tulane -2 v. Nevada | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #269 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave (-) vs Nevada Wolf Pack @ 3:30 ET - Tulane is the more rested team here. I realize the location of this game favors Nevada but the Green Wave have had plenty of time to prepare for and travel to this game. I like the fact that this will be just the 2nd game for Tulane since November 20th while, keep in mind, all 8 of Nevada's games have been played from October 24th onward. The fact that Tulane started their season way back in early September is an advantage here. Also, the Wolf Pack will be playing for what is essentially the 9th straight week with just a couple extra days of rest mixed in there. Note that in Tulane's last 9 games, the favorite is a perfect 9-0 SU. In other words if you just played the favorite straight up in the last 9 games for the Green Wave you have gone 9-0 and the line on this game is only a -2 as of early game day morning. Tulane is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they have been a favorite this season. I like the fact that the Green Wave have won each of their bowl games the last two seasons under coach Fritz and also that they wrapped up this season on a 4-1 SU and 6-1 ATS run. Conversely, the Wolf Pack lost to a MAC team in the bowls last season plus wrapped up this season with losing 2 of their last 3 games. Nevada enters this bowl off a very disappointing effort against San Jose State. Even though the Green Wave defense is missing a couple players for this game they are still the much better team in this match-up and there is a reason the 5-loss team is favored over the 2-loss Wolf Pack. Don't let the line fool you. The line move shows the public took the bait and I am happy to now grab the extra line value after the market movement. Lay the short number. 10* TULANE |
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12-19-20 | Tulsa +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
The Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #237 Saturday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 8 ET - I know the AAC Championship Game is being played at Cincinnati's home stadium but this is too many points. Tulsa has played the tougher schedule this season and the Bearcats were quite fortunate in the turnover battle in their wins when they did step up in class. If you take a look at their stats in those match-ups you will see what I am talking about but lets just say they have led a bit of a 'charmed life' so far this season and I fully expect their luck to run out here. That doesn't mean they will lose this game outright but I do feel strongly that Tulsa will be in this game all the way. The Golden Hurricane defense is arguably just as good as Cincinnati's and this is particularly true when you factor in strength of schedule. That said, the Bearcats are in for a dogfight in this game. Tulsa has won 6 straight games SU and is also 6-1 ATS this season. The Golden Hurricane also have an advantage in that they have played a game in the past two weeks while Cincinnati has not played a game since a month ago! Tulsa lost by 11 points at Cincy last season but they actually outgained them by 60 yards but were done in by 5 turnovers in the game. I certainly do not expect a repeat of that as the Golden Hurricane are only turning the ball over 1.5 times a game on the road this season. About the scheduling and breaks, here is an excerpt from my write-up on Central Florida when they lost by just 3 to Cincinnati in the Bearcats most recent game 4 weeks ago: "Though the Bearcats won big at SMU in their lone road game, they actually had just 17 first downs in that game while the Mustangs had 22. Cincinnati is absolutely a very good team but they have had it quite easy so far this season with scheduling and all the breaks seeming to go their way too." This is going to be an all-out war and the only loss the Golden Hurricane have is as a 23 point dog against Oklahoma State in their season opener and they covered easily as they only allowed 16 points to the Cowboys in that game. Don't be surprised if this game goes down to the wire so grab the big points. 10* TULSA |
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12-18-20 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +7 | Top | 28-21 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Big Ten Punisher Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #208 Friday 10* Top Play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 7:30 ET - Rutgers QB Noah Vedral would love to face his former team but is dealing with an ankle injury. Though I do expect him to go here, Artur Sitkowski has played well this season and helped lead the way to an overtime victory at Maryland last week. The key for me here is that the Scarlet Knights continue to fight hard and give strong effort week after week. Conversely, the Cornhuskers are off an inexcusable home loss to Minnesota last week as an 8 point favorite. Now Nebraska is on the road and this line has risen as high as a 7 and that means it is go time with Rutgers here. The Scarlet Knights have won 3 of their last 4 games ATS and two of those were outright upset wins. Even though Rutgers has been giving strong efforts of late they still sit at 0-4 SU on the season in home games. Undoubtedly they will give it their all for coach Schiano in their home finale here and I fully expect them to improve to 6-2 ATS under Schiano as an underdog. Note that the Cornhuskers have dropped 11 of last 15 under coach Frost as a favorite. Statistically these teams are trending very close on the season and I look for them to build off the big road win last week while the Huskers have proven already that they are merely looking ahead to next season. Last week's home loss to the Golden Gophers says a lot. The home dog is the play here. 10* RUTGERS |
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12-12-20 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor +6 | Top | 42-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Month - 10* Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - The Bears have struggled on offense this season, particularly their ground game. However, Baylor has the better defense in this match-up and they are 2-1 SU at home this season. There is a reason that a ranked Oklahoma State team is favored by less than a TD against a Bears team that has a 2-6 SU record on the season. In other words, don't be fooled by the line here. It is set this way for a reason and I have a strong feeling about an upset win here. Baylor has won 4 of the last 5 meetings both SU and ATS. Also, the Bears are allowing just 355 yards per game and their defense keeps them in games. Conversely, the Cowboys have allowed an average of over 500 yards per game their last 3 games plus they enter this game on an 0-5 ATS run. The home dog is going to give Oklahoma State all they can handle here just as they seem to do every year in recent meetings. I am expecting an outright upset as this Bears defense has played motivated football all season long and the Baylor offense does have a veteran QB and a decent passing game. They'll find a way in my opinion for the outright win but I am grabbing the points for added insurance here. 10* BAYLOR plus points |
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12-06-20 | Washington State +13 v. USC | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #489 Sunday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (+) @ USC Trojans @ 7:30 ET - This is a much a play against USC as it is a play on Washington State. Going to keep this one short and sweet but the fact is that the Trojans are very fortunate to be 3-0 on the season as they barely escaped against Arizona and Arizona State. Though the Trojans did pull away for a big win over Utah, they were fortunate in that they caught the Utes playing their first game of the season and USC took full advantage of that. However, that is certainly not the case here and the Cougars have the firepower on offense to hang around in this one. That is particularly true with QB Jayden De Laura upgraded to probable for this one. Washington State has struggled on the defensive side of the ball but they faced Oregon and Oregon State (when the Beavers QB was healthy). Look for the Cougars to fare better on that side of the ball in this one as the Trojans have been a little inconsistent on offense. As for the Cougars offense, they have scored well and moved the ball well and I certainly like that combo here with them catching nearly two full td's in this match-up at Southern Cal. 10* WASHINGTON STATE |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -13 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #402 Saturday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - The Hoosiers are ranked higher than the Badgers and are also an undefeated 6-0 ATS on the season and yet they are nearly 2 TD underdogs in this match-up! See anything funny about that? Exactly! Don't fall for the attractiveness of what markets will say is a phony line here. The fact is that the Hoosiers would be in trouble here even if they had QB Michael Penix here but he is now out for the season. Indiana is facing a Wisconsin defense that has allowed only 11.7 points per game this season. Now the Hoosiers face them with a lot of question marks at the QB position too as they now have an unproven signal-caller stepping in. The Badgers are still angry off their loss a few weeks ago against Northwestern and haven't played since. Wisconsin is rested and ready to respond and lets not forget that their only two games besides the loss to the Wildcats were a pair of wins by a combined score of 94-18. The Hoosiers lost their most recent road game and that was the only other time they have been a road dog this season. Though Indiana only lost the game by 7 at Ohio State, they actually were getting blasted in that game and down huge at the half. The Hoosiers rallied in the 2nd half as the Buckeyes took their foot off the gas courtesy of a big lead and then Penix took over with big plays for the offense. Again, Penix is now out for the year and also the Badgers are angry and won't let up here and have a fantastic defense and they are at home. Wisconsin will win the battles in the trenches on both sides of the ball and when you dominate the line of scrimmage plus have the better QB situation (Mertz has been great and Coan is available now too if needed) you generally dominate the game! Look for that to be the case here and my projections have the Badgers winning this one by a margin of at least 3 touchdowns. Lay the big points as the home team improves to 11-0 SU L11 and 6-0 ATS L6 in meetings with Indiana. 10* WISCONSIN |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8:30 ET - The Mountaineers have won 8 straight meetings with UL-Lafayette. Also, the Ragin' Cajuns have locked up the Sun Belt West Division. Those factors would lead one to believe that there is no way that Appalachian State, at home especially, is only a 2.5 point favorite in this one. My comment to that...exactly! In typical contrarian fashion I am taking the underdog in this one. Yes ULL has lost 8 straight to App State but that is actually a key to their motivation here. Even though they have locked up the SBC West, the Ragin' Cajuns are highly motivated to end their 8-game losing streak to the Mountaineers. The fact that ULL has allowed an average of only 330 yards per game their last 4 games is a good sign. Teams that control the defensive stats are a good team to bet on (particularly when a dog) and the Mountaineers dominated Troy in their most recent game but allowed 34 points in a loss in their game just prior to that one. On the season, the Ragin' Cajuns have played the tougher schedule. Also, ULL lost to Appalachian State twice last season including the SBC Championship Game and that was despite having 31 first downs compared to just 20 first downs for the Mountaineers in that game. Finally, on Friday night in Boone, NC the Ragin' Cajuns get their shot at revenge. Look for them to make the most of it. 10* UL LAFAYETTE |
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11-28-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas State +17.5 | Top | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #226 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas State Bobcats (+) vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 3 ET - I fully understand that Coastal Carolina is a ranked team, undefeated on the season, and that they need to not only win but win by big margins to move up the standings. However, this is a horrible spot for them in many ways. For one thing they are off a key win over an Appalachian State team that was undefeated in conference action plus entered the game with an overall 6-1 record on the season. Secondly, the Chanticleers have an 8-1 Liberty team on deck and the Flames have also been a ranked team this season. In the middle of these two games is a 2-9 Bobcats team. I just can't see Coastal Carolina being able to fully focus here and also this game is at Texas State. The weather is expected to be very rainy in San Marcos for this one. Nasty weather generally favors big dogs as it can complicate things for offenses. I still expect Coastal Carolina to win this game but not by a huge margin and this line is up to a 17.5 as of early gameday morning. Yes, the Bobcats defense is an issue but this is a team that can score well and that means they also have backdoor cover potential should it be needed. But I am not expecting it to be necessary as I look for them to hang in tough throughout this game. I also like the fact that Texas State has played a tougher overall schedule and, outside of the SBC, they faced some bigger schools like SMU, Boston College, and BYU. The Bobcats lost by only a single score to the Mustangs and Eagles! By comparison, Coastal Carolina's schedule has been a cakewalk. Texas State enters this game on a 4-0 ATS run. The Bobcats also are scoring an average of 34 points per game in home games this season. 10* TEXAS STATE |
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11-28-20 | Texas Tech +11.5 v. Oklahoma State | 44-50 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #221 Saturday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Noon ET - While the Cowboys are off a deflating loss last week at Oklahoma plus have QB issues, the Red Raiders enter off a bye week and with good news on the QB front. Texas Tech saw Alan Bowman come back and lead the rally versus Baylor two weeks ago. The Red Raiders also still have Henry Colombi available but it is good to see that Bowman appears healthy again. As for the Cowboys, their #2 guy (Shane Illingworth) is out this week due to Covid-19 and that could be a problem. That's because Oklahoma State's #1 (Spencer Sanders) is still dealing with a head injury. That means the Cowboys could very easily end up down to their #3 QB in this game and he is a junior college transfer. It just seems like too many points for OSU to be laying as they could be a little dejected after having lost 2 of 3 games and getting blasted at Oklahoma. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, are surging with momentum after the way they defeated Baylor with no time left on the clock and they also have the extra week of rest entering this game. 8* TEXAS TECH |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #136 Friday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - When this line opened up near a -3 on Notre Dame I fully expected the line might move to near a -7 and that is exactly what happened. It just looks too easy, right? An undefeated team that also has beaten Clemson this season and they are coming off a bye week and facing a 6-2 team with a questionable defense. Of course you know what happens when things look too easy, right? Exactly! I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here. The Tar Heels are off an embarrassing effort on defense versus Wake Forest in their most recent game. However, North Carolina still found a way to win thanks to their dynamic and balanced offense. I feel strongly that the UNC defense is going to be much better in this game as they bring their 'A game' in this rare opportunity to host one of the top teams in the nation. At Chapel Hill on Saturday, look for the Tar Heels to find a way in this one. North Carolina is averaging 43 points per game this season and has scored more than 40 in 4 straight games. More of the same expected here. The vaunted Notre Dame defense has allowed 35.5 points per game their last two games and will be heavily tested in this game. Don't be surprised if the Irish are handed their first loss of the season in this one. Even if not an outright upset, I expect the Tar Heels (only 2 losses by 3 points each this season) to stay inside the number here. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #396 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - This is fantastic line value on an undefeated home dog. Yes the Badgers are 2-0 but they faced a very bad Illinois team and a Michigan team that is in a world of hurt this season. Last week Wisconsin phenom QB Mertz, who absolutely is going to be a success story long-term, did start the game 1 for 5 and looked a bit "off" which is what I expected for the young QB's first road start. However, the good news for Mertz was that he was facing a Michigan team that it only takes one mistake from them to completely unravel. Indeed the Wolverines immediately turned the ball over a few times and the rest was history in yet another embarrassment for Harbaugh's team in Ann Arbor. The point is that neither the Badgers nor Mertz have really been tested by a strong defense. That changes this week. Northwestern is allowing just 14 points per game this season. Now one could argue that their schedule hasn't been overly tough either but they have won a pair of road games and have 4 games under their belt compared to the Badgers having just 2 because of covid issues this season. Also, the Wildcats did allow just 335.7 yards per game last season to rank in the top 25 defenses in the nation and so this is not a fluke what we've seen from them this season. The offense will struggle some against a very strong Wisconsin defense but to get 7.5 points here as a home dog going against a young QB still getting his feet wet on the Big Ten road is something I won't pass up. The Cats offensive attack has been balanced so far this season between the run and the pass and they have averaged 427 yards per game in their two home games. Even if they don't do enough for the outright upset here they absolutely should do enough for the all important cover. 8* NORTHWESTERN |
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11-21-20 | Iowa +1.5 v. Penn State | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #333 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - What is Penn State playing for here? Pride? You think the Nittany Lions will be a proud team if they run the table and finish the season 4-4? Mind you this was a season they were suppose to possibly even challenge for the CFB championship! I know the Nittany Lions looked good after Will Levis replaced starter Sean Clifford at QB last week at Nebraska but it is not hard to look better when you come into a game your trailing 27-6 and the other team's defense (not a great one mind you) has laid back a bit at that point. Plus Levis only completed 14 of 31 passes. No matter who is at a QB here for PSU, the problems remain. This team this season looks like a poorly coached turnover machine. Not only has Penn State had 9 turnovers in their 4 games this season, they also have forced just ONE turnover in their last 3 games combined. Now they face a tough Iowa defense and the Hawkeyes have forced 8 turnovers in their last 3 games! Iowa also has revenge from losing each of the past two seasons to the Nittany Lions and that includes a home loss last season. They lost that game because of a 2-0 turnover deficit but the way this season is going that turnover battle is highly likely to go the other way in this one. With Penn State 0-4 SU and ATS this season and the Hawkeyes off back to back wins and covers by a combined score of 84-14, there is only one way to go in this game in my opinion. The Hawkeyes are allowing 14.8 points per game this season. The Nittany Lions have allowed at least 30 points in all 4 of their games. PSU has played the tougher schedule but there is not that much of a disparity to justify this line being where it is. Until Penn State proves they can win a game they are an automatic fade in my book with what I have seen on the field from these guys this season. 8* IOWA |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +5.5 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #344 Saturday 10* Central Florida Knights (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats have a fantastic defense and are having a great season. With an ultra-talented defense like Cincinnati has it is going to take a very special offense to do any damage against them. That said, welcome to Central Florida! Not only do the Knights play very fast on offense they also are extremely dangerous with tremendous big play capabilities. Also, UCF should have beaten the Bearcats last season but they were done in by 4 turnovers. The Knights put up 423 yards of offense but lost by 3 points and that game was at Cincinnati. The turnovers were the difference in the game. Clearly UCF has played the tougher schedule so far this season and that is why we're getting line value here too with the Knights as a home dog. Everyone sees the undefeated Bearcats on the road and having obliterated teams but this is a match-up that will give them issues for sure. Cincinnati's friendly schedule thus far includes the fact that they have been on the road only one time this season. Though the Bearcats won big at SMU in their lone road game, they actually had just 17 first downs in that game while the Mustangs had 22. Cincinnati is absolutely a very good team but they have had it quite easy so far this season with scheduling and all the breaks seeming to go their way too. That ends here on Saturday and the Knights return the favor after losing at Cincinnati last season in a game they should not have lost - UCF outgained them by 82 yards. Payback time here. The Knights are averaging an insane 619 yards of offense per game. 10* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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11-18-20 | Toledo -6.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #311 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7 ET - Toledo has dominated this series in recent years in terms of SU wins. However, Eastern Michigan has actually covered 4 straight games in this series. The last 3 meetings have all been decided by 5 or less points. Given the above, this line might seem too high. But this is where I use history like that to my advantage because it is helping to keep this line lower than it should be actually. Toledo is the much better team on both sides of the ball and the Rockets very motivated after an unreal loss at Western Michigan last week. In that game the Broncos scored 13 points in the final 45 seconds to miraculously win the game. The Rockets looked like the better team for nearly the entirety of that game. Toledo is averaging 512.5 yards per game and allowing only 352 yards per game. The Eagles are averaging just 389.5 yards per game and allowing a whopping 483.5 yards per game. The last time these teams met here in Ypsilanti, MI the Rockets fell behind 28-3 at the half in the 28-26 loss. That rally fell short but Toledo has been reminded of that game coming into this one. It is the only loss the Rockets have in the last 13 meetings with Eastern Michigan! It is payback time on Wednesday. 10* TOLEDO |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +31.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #304 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the 2018 MAC Championship Game. What does that have to do with this play? Bear with me for a minute here. The Bulls began this season with a revenge win over the Huskies two weeks ago. Then last week Buffalo beat Miami (Ohio) and on deck after this game is Kent State and then Ohio University. What do the Redhawks, Golden Flashes, and Bobcats have in common? They were the teams that handed the Bulls their only 3 MAC losses last season. The point is that of the Bulls first 5 games in this compacted MAC season, 4 of them are revenge games. The only one that isn't is this game against a Falcons team they have pummeled by an average margin of 36 points per game in the last two meetings. That said, this line is about where I would expect it to be considering the Bulls won by 30 in their last visit here. However, given the circumstances, this point spread is likely to prove to be too much. Buffalo wins big here but not big enough! Bowling Green is off back to back embarrassing losses to start the season. But the fact the Falcons are at home and off an absolute stinker in their home opener for this season means you can expect a big response from Bowling Green here. This is a flat spot for the Bulls whereas the Falcons are off a beating by a 38 point margin at Perry Stadium. In other words, embarrassment in your own house. They'll still struggle here because the Bulls are certainly the much better team. But I could see Buffalo "going through the motions" in this one while I have no doubt the Falcons "come to play" after the way their season has started. 10* BOWLING GREEN |
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11-14-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan +6.5 | Top | 49-11 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7:30 ET - The contrarian theme continues. Everyone loves the Badgers this week. I used them for a big play in their opening game win over Illinois (an easy win) so I know plenty about how good this Wisconsin team can be. However, I also know that the Illini are a very bad football team, the Badgers have been dealing with covid-19 issues and haven't played in a game in 3 weeks, and that the Wolverines are a much better team than they've shown so far this season. They did lose last week at Indiana but had 344 passing yards but were done in by a pair of a interceptions. The Hoosiers are now 3-0 on the season and also beat a talented (though struggling) Penn State team. In other words the "atrocities" of losing to Indiana and Michigan State (almost always a tough rivalry game) may be getting a bit overplayed with regards to this Michigan team. The Wolverines did outgain the Spartans in the lost and, again, it is a huge rivalry game in which Michigan State almost always seems to step up their game to their highest level no matter how much more talented Michigan is than they are. I know the Badgers Graham Mertz is a very talented QB and comes highly regarded (and deserves it) but if you think after 3 weeks off and valuable practice time lost due to covid-19, that he will go to Michigan and do the same thing he did against Illinois at home in Madison, you don't know football. The Wolverines are well aware of being disrespected heading into this game and they have heard all about the talented phenom Mertz and this defense will have its ears pinned back for this one. Don't forget too that Wisconsin really didn't run the ball that well against Illinois either. That is not a good sign for this game. If the Badgers can't establish the run against the Big Blue defense a ton of pressure will be on Mertz to win this game. On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines have the talent to move the ball down the field and are averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game! The Badgers go from facing a very weak Illini offense to facing a team that, when it comes to play, is quite talented on offense. I fully expect an "A game" effort from Michigan in their own house here as they lost their only other game here this season plus have revenge from losing by 21 in Madison last year. When considering that plus the huge line move toward Wisconsin here, we have line value that is absolutely "off the charts" for this one. 10* MICHIGAN |
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11-14-20 | TCU +3 v. West Virginia | 6-24 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #141 Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs (+) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ Noon ET - It looks easy, right? Just take the home team with the better record and the better defensive numbers laying only a field goal? In typical contrarian fashion, I am on other side here. Give me the dog no one will want. Why? For one thing, the Horned Frogs have played the tougher schedule. The Mountaineers opened up their season with Eastern Kentucky. Also, West Virginia's last two games of this season are against Oklahoma and at Iowa State. Those are a pair of tough 5-2 teams which the Horned Frogs have already had to face. Lets talk then about teams that each team already has faced. The Mountaineers have lost two of their last three games and those defeats came at the hands of Texas and Texas Tech. TCU beat both of those teams and that included beating the Red Raiders by 16 and beating the Longhorns in Austin! In fact, the Horned Frogs are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS this season in road games and I fully expect those trends to continue here as the strength of schedule factor is a big one favoring the road dog in this one. It is also a revenge game as West Virginia beat them in Fort Worth last season (despite TCU winning the yardage battle) and the Horned Frogs were a 14 point favorite in that one. Payback today! 8* TCU |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina +28 v. Cincinnati | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Friday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7:30 ET - This is a potential flat spot for the Bearcats. Of course I expect Cincinnati to win this game and, perhaps, even handily. But winning a game handily or comfortably doesn't mean covering a 4-TD spread. I expect about a two TD margin here which means we have a lot of cushion to work with. Cincinnati is off 3 straight big games against tougher opponents plus has a tough game on deck at Central Florida. A game against the fast-paced Knights, and a game that is at UCF no less, is the one that could trip up the undefeated Bearcats. That said, there is no doubt that upcoming game is on the minds of Cincinnati at least to an extent and it doesn't take much to throw a team off that has to be firing on all cylinders to cover this enormous spread. Keep in mind, the game between these teams last season was decided by just 3 points. Also, in the Bearcats 4 home games against FBS schools this season they have averaged 34.8 points per game. The Pirates are averaging 29.2 points per game this season and have not been held below 21 points in any of their 6 games. Now, of course, I am well aware that the Bearcats defense is much better than the East Carolina defense but the point is that the Pirates offense is a pretty solid unit and if Cincy just loses a little focus for this game it will be closer than many are expecting. If the Bearcats do eventually pull away it will hard to pull away by a lot and the Pirates talented offense means they have a great shot at backdoor cover - should one even be needed! In an otherwise disappointing campaign, this is a chance for East Carolina to make some noise on center stage on a Friday Night game on ESPN. The Pirates are certainly well aware that they are 1-5 and Cincinnati is 6-0 on the season and ranked in the top ten in the nation so look for an "A game" effort from the big dog in this one! 10* EAST CAROLINA |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #120 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos vs Toledo Rockets @ 8 ET - When it is early in the season it helps once you've see a team twice to know a little bit more. I know what you're thinking. This teams have only played once so what I am talking about? Let me explain. Toledo destroyed Bowling Green last week but then I watched the Falcons get destroyed again last night by a Kent State team that, no disrespect intended, shouldn't be beating anyone else in the MAC by a 38 point margin especially when on the road. So the point is don't put too much stock into the Rockets destroying the Falcons last week. As for the Broncos, they destroyed the Zips last week and that game was at Akron. Then what did we see from Akron last night, a determined effort at Ohio University where they were a 4 TD underdog and didn't even give up 28 points on the night in the 24-10 hard-fought loss. The point is that, even though it is early in the season, the Broncos might be stronger than most anticipated. These teams were projected to finish 1-2 in the West Division of the MAC. With the fact that the Rockets have dominated this series recently but the Broncos at home for this one and revenge-seeking and perhaps even stronger than many anticipated entering this season, I am going big on Western Michigan here. The Broncos are a very strong along the offensive line and also their defense looks deeper this season. The offense will attack a Toledo secondary that is a bit of a question mark entering this season. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #112 Tuesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 8 ET - The Bulls are off a revenging win at Northern Illinois last week. The Huskies had beaten them in the MAC Championship Game year before last. Now Buffalo has another revenge game this week. Last season one of their few MAC losses was at Miami-Ohio. The Bulls lost that game because of 4 turnovers and 10 penalties for over 100 yards! Buffalo outgained the Redhawks by 164 yards on the ground and I expect that to be a theme again in this year's rematch. The Bulls catch Miami-Ohio off a hard-fought home win over Ball State. They lost QB Brett Gabbert in that one and I would be very surprised if he plays this week. Although AJ Mayer was solid in taking his place that game was at home against a weak Cardinals defense. He will face a much tougher defense this week plus he is on the road. Even though the stats weren't so great for the Bulls last week I do like the fact they averaged 5.4 ypc on the ground while Miami-Ohio averaged only 3.2 ypc on the ground against a generally sub-par Cards defense. If Mayer gets the start here it will be the first start of his career and it comes on the road and it comes against the best team in the MAC East and it comes with the Bulls in revenge mode and playing their home opener. I am not a big fan of laying big points but this one meets all the requirements I look for when doing so. Also, note that the Bulls have covered 8 in a row as a MAC home favorite. That streak continues here. 10* BUFFALO |
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11-07-20 | Houston +13.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - I am aware that Houston has some injury issues here but I have had my eyes on this match-up all along and will not hold back here as this play gets my highest rating. Cincinnati is a very strong football team but they are over-valued here. Yes they are 5-0 on the season but 2 of those wins weren't even a challenge as they faced Austin Peay as well as a very bad USF team. In their other 3 games, though the Bearcats dominated the scoreboard, they actually had LESS first downs than their opponent in 2 of those 3 games. Now, even with that said, Cincinnati is absolutely the better team in comparison with the Cougars. However, being favored by nearly 2 touchdowns here will prove to be far too much. I don't expect the Bearcats to go undefeated this season and an upset here would not surprise me. But at the very least I do expect Houston to stay within one score of the Bearcats throughout this game. Yes, the Cougars got throttled by UCF last week but that is one of the scariest offenses to face in college football. The Knights are an absolute machine on offense. As for their other loss it came against BYU and we saw again last night (throttled Broncos AT Boise State!) that this Brigham Young team is a beast this season. In other words, I think the Cougars defense is much improved over last season but they haven't had a chance to fully show that yet based on facing a much tougher schedule than the Bearcats have. As for offense, that has never really been a question mark for the Cougars and they'll have some special plays in the playbook for this one to give Cincy some troubles on defense. I fully believe the Bearcats are challenged in this one and, after winning your first 5 games by an average margin of 27.6 points, suddenly finding yourself in a tight dog-fight can change the mentality of a team real quick. Cincinnati might end up 'pressing' a bit on offense in this one as a result and the Cougars, on the other hand, come into this game very relaxed knowing that no one is giving them a chance in this game. That sets up for a very dangerous underdog and I love having the scrappy dog on my side for this game. 10* HOUSTON |