Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #350 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ Noon ET - I was waiting to see what this line did and things have worked out perfectly. As a result of the suspension of Iowa wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette this line has dropped even though this is a fantastic situation for the angry Hawkeyes. First off, after throwing 3 picks last week how much do you think the Hawkeyes are going to be firing the ball downfield trying to get huge gains in this one? The fact is that Iowa is going to win this game with their defense and also with pounding away with their ground game and a very short passing game. The point is that the Hawkeyes can still win this game handily even without Ihmir Smith-Marsette so his absence has merely given us even more value with this line dropping instead of possibly going the other way and going above a TD. Keep in mind that Michigan State is a rather inexperienced team and they are off a huge win over rival Michigan and now playing a 2nd straight road game. Additionally, the Spartans are facing an Iowa team that has started a season 0-2 for the first time in 20 years. Yes Michigan State looked great in upsetting the Wolverines but lets not forget their other game was a turnover-filled debacle which resulted in a 38-27 loss to Rutgers! The Spartans are 3-9 ATS the last two years when they are off a SU win. Also, Michigan State has failed to cover 11 of their last 14 in Big Ten games. Iowa should improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 games in this series as they bounce back from two tight losses to start the season. Blowing a 17-0 lead in last week's turnover-fueled home loss also means the Hawkeyes defense comes into this fired up and with their ears pinned back. They have heard plenty about QB Lombardi and his big game last week and they're highly motivated to shut him down. The Spartans haven't been able to get much going on the ground early this season and that puts an awful lot of pressure on Lombardi to try and beat a tough Hawkeyes defense through the air. I just don't see that happening and the home team pulls away to win this one by double digits. 8* IOWA

ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #296 Wednesday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Chippewas did lose some talent from last year's team but this is still a Central Michigan team that went to the MAC Championship Game last season. Also, after losing that game plus losing their bowl came, the Chips couldn't wait to get back on the field. This team is hungry to bounce back from those two season-ending defeats and is ready to prove they can win even without the services of QB Dormady and RB Ward. Ohio also lost their starting QB and he, Rourke, was a huge for this team. They do now have Rourke's younger brother and also UNLV transfer Rogers but either guy is likely to struggle early on. I like the Chippewas handling of the QB replacement situation much better and, keep in mind, this is a Central Michigan team that went a perfect 6-0 SU at home last season and they were blowout wins too! As for the Bobcats, they are getting a little too much respect from the betting markets here in my opinion. I know Solich is a veteran coach but Chippewas coach Jim McElwain has been a head coach at Colorado State and Florida! He has experience in bigger conferences than the MAC and that paid off last season and now he is in his 2nd season with the Chips and I feel that they are under-valued in this spot. Yes they lost some key personnel from last year's team but the same holds true for Ohio University. I am happy to take the home dog here as this line was originally a pick'em. 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN

SEC Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #193 Saturday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a big dog. The Tigers have played a very tough schedule so they are a battle-tested already and building momentum as they are off back to back wins. I also like the fact that Missouri proved they could win no matter the style of play. They beat LSU 45-41 in a high-scoring thriller and then beat Kentucky 20-10 in a low-scoring grinder. I really like the Tigers defense this season. Major improvements on that side of the ball in terms of personnel and coaching and it has paid off. The bigger point totals that Missouri allowed in the first 3 games are actually a bit deceiving. Note that the Tigers have allowed only 365 yards per game. That said, the bigger point totals allowed in the first 3 games certainly had some other variables and are merely helping to give us line value here. I also like the fact that the Gators will be playing their first game in 3 weeks (covid issues) and there could be some rust and lingering issues as a result. After Missouri got back to back wins in this series, Florida exacted double revenge last year but the first downs were only 18-15 in that 23-6 final. Another case where we're getting some extra line value baked into this line. I look for Missouri to be in this game all the way. The Gators lost to A & M in their most recent game and their only other two games this season saw both decided by 16 or less points. The point is that even if factors were normal for this game I could see the Tigers hanging within this 14 point spread all game long but, with extenuating factors, I feel this tough Mizzou defense could keep this team within 7 all game long and the Tigers just might even be in line for a huge upset win late in this one. Grab the big points. This year it is Missouri with revenge on their minds and they have a bye week on deck while Florida has huge game with Georgia on deck! 10* MISSOURI

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #175 Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - Baylor's season has been tremendously impacted by Covid. Sure they were able to win their first game but that was against a Kansas team that is annually very bad and has prove to fall into the "very bad" category once again this season. Following that win the Bears lost 27-21 in double OT to West Virginia but they were fortunate that game even got into OT. The Mountaineers never trailed the entire game and led by at least 7 points most of the way. Speaking of misleading finals, Baylor also managed to fall by just 11 points at Texas last week but they were dominated in most aspects of the game and trailed it by 27-3 at one point before some good fortune led to a late rally that was still well short of threatening anything but the cover. The point is that Baylor beat a bad Jayhawks team and then were clearly outclassed in their next two games and they will be outclassed again here by the Horned Frogs. TCU has played a much tougher schedule than Baylor. That said, the Horned Frogs 1-3 SU record may not impress but the teams they have played have a combined SU record of 13-7 and all are tough Big 12 teams. I love taking solid teams off back to back losses and that is the case here with the Horned Frogs. We get a good team off consecutive SU losses and, keep in mind, they take on a Baylor team with a first year head coach. Yes, Dave Aranda is a solid coach who knows how to construct good defenses but he is in his 1st year as a head coach and first year with the Bears and it is a pandemic-influenced year. On the other side of the field, instead of introducing new coaching and new systems in a year impacted greatly by covid (reduced spring practice too, etc), the Horned Frogs are coached by Gary Patterson...yes, the same Gary Patterson that has been there for 20 consecutive seasons. Considering the above as well as the fact that TCU has revenge from last year's home loss to Baylor, this one is set up perfectly for a road rout. The Horned Frogs beat Texas outright as a double digit dog 4 weeks ago while Baylor faced the same UT team last week and got dominated. Lay the short number with the road fave here. 8* TCU

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #108 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-) vs East Carolina Pirates @ 9 ET - Last season Tulsa outgained East Carolina by a margin of 286 yards and that was on the road! Not only that, this is the first home game of the season for the Golden Hurricane and so I expect them to roll big here. Normally I don't like laying big numbers but this is a rare exception. Not only is this one quite a mismatch in terms of talent level of these two teams, the Pirates have also been hit by covid-19 issues. This has even hit their starting QB but he is expected to play in this game but he and other players have missed practice time and there have been quarantine issues and the list goes on. I know that East Carolina can score some points but the Tulsa defense has been fantastic this season and I expect that to continue here. In terms of common opponents, East Carolina faced UCF and they were at home for that game and still got blasted by 23 points. Tulsa faced the same Knights team and they were on the road for that game and yet got a huge upset win as they won outright by 8 points as a 3-TD underdog. The Golden Hurricane are allowing only 18.3 points per game this season while the Pirates are allowing 37.8 points per game. Defense and the fact that this is Tulsa's first home game of the season will prove to be the difference in this game. East Carolina is allowing 212.8 rushing yards per game and last season the Golden Hurricane ran for 338 yards against the Pirates and that was on the road! 10* TULSA

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #158 Thursday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Colorado State Rams @ 10 PM ET - The Bulldogs are off an ugly season-opening loss marred by turnovers. However, they were facing a revenge-minded Hawaii team they had beaten 3 straight years. That is not an excuse but simply a fact as they faced a hungry dog that is an improving program and they struggled. Now it is Fresno State that has revenge on their minds as they take on a Colorado State team that defeated them by double digits last season. Edges for the Bulldogs abound in this one as last season they were the better running team plus the better team in terms of defending the run. Also, Colorado State hired the former Boston College coach soon after he was fired after being mostly mediocre for the Eagles. This was not consider a great hire in Fort Collins circles and the pandemic has added to the challenges for him in his first season with the Rams. Spring practice time ended up being much shorter than it would have been and also, in recent weeks, practices leading up to this game have been impacted by some covid-19 issues on the team. That significantly hampers a team that also hasn't played yet while Fresno State does have the edge of having a game under the belt. Additionally, the Bulldogs defense is going to take advantage of the Colorado State offensive line which is an area of concern for the Rams and is what prevents them from establishing a consistent ground attack. Look for the home dog to have the better ground game here and look better on the defensive side of the ball too. Will grab the 2 points in case it is tight but should not need them. 10* FRESNO STATE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #386 Saturday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The Gophers typically are the punching bag of the Wolverines but things are changing. As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian in many situations and this one is no exception. History can lead to value when times are changing and Minnesota is on their way up in recent season while Michigan continues to tread water. Yes the Wolverines defense should be solid but their offense has some major question marks heading into this season. Minny is really going to be up for this game and they have a very potent offense which I feel strongly will prove to be too much even for a solid defense like Michigan has. That said, the Wolverines offense will not be able to keep up in this one and that will be the difference in the game. Some will argue this point but I feel it is easier to replace guys on defense than offense. The Golden Gophers lost a lot of key personnel from last season's defensive unit while the Wolverines suffered massive attrition to the roster on the offensive side. Statistically these teams were nearly equal last season. Considering the above as well as the 3.5 point line and I feel the value clearly lies with the home dog here. Most will be lining up on Michigan here with their history of success at Minnesota. Keep in mind, this Gophers team has a lot of confidence now after their 11-win season last year. This program is stronger than it has been in some time and you'll see that on the field Saturday. 8* MINNESOTA

Big 12 Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 5:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a home dog. The Red Raiders are off a bye week which followed 3 straight losses. They are making a change at QB and I like the move and they have had extra time to prepare for this week's game which means its "all systems go" and I expect a jolt of energy for the team. While on paper it looks like the Mountaineers have the much better defense, note that the Red Raiders have faced some tough competition (like Texas) that ran up their stats in a negative way on the defense side of the ball. West Virginia faced a bad Kansas team and a Baylor team with a new coach and struggling with covid-related issues. The Mountaineers also had a game against Eastern Kentucky. Their only truly tough game was against Oklahoma State and they got rolled by two touchdowns. Lubbock, TX is not an easy place to play and that is particularly true for a Big 12 team that is based in West Virginia! The situation is perfect for the Red Raiders and they are hungry for a win and very hungry for a home win too as this is their first home game since they let a huge late lead slip away against rival Texas a month ago. The home team gets back on track here and I am glad to have the added insurance of the 3 points too with this home dog. 10* TEXAS TECH

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #314 Saturday 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Florida State Seminoles @ Noon ET - This line opened up around a 7 even though the Cardinals have lost 4 straight games. Why? Well, Florida State is off an upset win over North Carolina while Louisville has lost 4 straight games. But here are the keys. The Cards have played the tougher schedule and they also have revenge here against the Noles. The markets have moved this line lower (as I expected) and that is why there is great value with the home team in this one. The Cardinals lost to Notre Dame by just 5, the Seminoles lost to the Fighting Irish by 16. The Cards lost to to Miami by just 13 while the Noles lost to the Hurricanes by 42. Louisville is allowing about 100 yards less per game than Florida State and the better defense and home field and revenge factors all add up to a big home win here. Plus FSU QB Jordan Travis was with the Cardinals previously so they know plenty about him and his tendencies. 8* LOUISVILLE

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #388 Friday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - It is RARE for me to lay this many points and the situation has to be special for me to ever do it. We have a VERY special situation here. The Badgers were 6-0 last season and destroying everyone they encountered before a trip to Illinois for their 7th game of the season. Wisconsin was a 4 TD favorite in that game and they LOST! It was absolutely one of the MOST unlikely upsets of the entire CFB season. Coming into this season the Badgers are expected to be at the top of the Big Ten West while the Illini are projected to be at the very bottom of the Big Ten West. This game is a complete mismatch. I am fully aware of the QB injury for the Badgers Coan but Mertz is a highly skilled QB that will have very little trouble going against this weak Illini defense. The last two times that the Illini visited Camp Randall they lost by an average of 37 points per visit. Wisconsin's last 3 season openers have been won by an average margin of 43 points! Normally I don't lay big points because of the fear of backdoor covers or a team taking their foot off of the gas late. That is not going to be the case here. The Badgers don't want to just win this game, they want to pulverize Illinois in this game. Though Wisconsin has some injury issues at the skill positions on offense they still will have plenty of firepower and their ground game will push the Illini defense all over the field as the Badgers O-line bullies the Illinois D-line. The strength of the Badgers is their defense and I can't see Illinois scoring much at all in this game yet the posted total on this game opened up at 52.5 points! What does that tell you? The odds makers are expecting Wisconsin to score plenty in this game and I concur. Badgers roll by at least 4 TDs in my opinion. 10* WISCONSIN  

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Thursday 8* Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7:30 ET - The Mountaineers could have some rust because they haven't played in 4 weeks in this pandemic-impacted season. However, Appalachian State is still a far superior team to Arkansas State and also is at home for this one. As a result, look for the Mountaineers to eventually have no problem in pulling away as this game goes on. The big difference is Appalachian State can actually play a little defense while Arkansas State has been horrendous on that side of the ball. The Mountaineers have allowed a TOTAL of just 58 points in their 3 games this season. Conversely, the Red Wolves have allowed 52 points in a single game twice in their last 3 games! Arkansas State is allowing 40 points per game and 482 yards per game this season while Appalachian State allowing just 323 yards and 19 points per game! The Mountaineers improve to 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in SBC action. 8* APPALACHIAN STATE

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #143 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 4 ET - No one will want Mississippi State here. After all, everyone just watched them turnover the ball like crazy and score just 2 points against Kentucky. That said, the Bulldogs have no chance here, right? After all, they are facing an Aggies team that just beat Florida and outgained the Gators by a substantial margin in doing so. In typical contrarian fashion, I actually like Mississippi State a ton in this spot. The Bulldogs beat LSU by double digits in their season opener but then laid an egg against Arkansas the very next week. As a result, there is great line value as the Bulldogs want to atone for Razorbacks defeat here as that has been their only home game so far this season. Texas A & M is 2-1 this season but they barely squeaked by Vanderbilt even though they were a 30 point favorite in that game. In fact, each of the Aggies two wins this season have been by 5 or less points. In between those two wins was a blowout loss at Alabama and the Aggies scored just 24 points in that game while Ole Miss put up 48 on the Crimson Tide the very next week. Mississippi State has revenge here for an ugly loss last year which followed 3 straight Bulldogs wins in this series. Historically the Aggies are not known for traveling well nor for coming up big in back to back big games. The home dog, as a result, is absolutely the way to go in this one. The Bulldogs defense allowing just 4.24 yards per play while Texas A & M allowing 6.75 yards per play. That is a big difference in defensive efficiency and certainly is not being properly accounted for by the betting markets in my opinion. 10* Mississippi State

Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #119 Saturday 8* Duke Blue Devils (+) @ NC State Wolfpack @ 3:30 ET - The Blue Devils are off another game marred by turnovers. Yet Duke still won that game by two touchdowns and had a yardage edge of more than 350 yards. I like those kind of numbers as they now get involved in a rivalry game that has seen the dog cover 7 of the last 9. The home team has covered only twice in the last ten meetings! Overall, coach Dave Doeren has led NC State to just 5 covers in their last 14 games as a home favorite in ACC action. The Wolfpack have done a great job of eliminated pressure to their quarterback so far this season but now face a Blue Devils team that already has amassed 18 sacks this season. NC State is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread this season but they have been the beneficiary of bounces for sure and two of their three wins have come by three or less points. I suspect that this one will too and an outright upset from the road dog would certainly not be a complete surprise. Additionally, NC State has North Carolina on deck and that is their biggest rival. The Blue Devils have a bye on deck. From a situational standpoint, this one is excellent and I won't hesitate to back the road dog here. 8* DUKE

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #352 Saturday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-) vs UTEP Miners @ 7:30 ET - I don't normally lay big points for a top play but this is a rare exception as I expect a thorough beating on the part of the Bulldogs here and a 3-1 Miners team is on the receiving end of it. Yes, UTEP is 3-1 this season but they've played two FCS schools. In their only tough game they were completely annihilated 59-3 by Texas! In their 4 games this season, even with playing a pair of FCS schools too, the Miners are averaging just 18.8 points per game. UTEP simply won't be able to keep with an angry Louisiana Tech team. The Bulldogs were 2-0 prior to last week's beating at the hands of a BYU team that has been annihilating everyone this season. Keep in mind, Louisiana Tech was averaging 48.5 points per game prior to getting hammered by the Cougars last week. This Bulldogs team can put up a ton of points here at home and the Miners simply won't be able to keep up. Last year, Louisiana Tech was up 42-7 before allowing two late TDs after the game was already decided. Look for another dominating win this season and it may end with an even greater margin than last season's 42-21 final. That's because Louisiana Tech is angry after what happened at Brigham Young last week. Also, Texas El Paso does have the attention of the Bulldogs here since the Miners are 3-1 this season. That means they won't be overlooked and that is bad news for UTEP as the home team really pours it on this one and should be fully focused from the opening kickoff too. The spread is -14 on this one but I am very comfortable laying the big points in this mismatch! 10* LOUISIANA TECH

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #325 Saturday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:30 ET - The Red Raiders are off back to back losses but they never should have lost to Texas as that was an overtime defeat in which they allowed the Longhorns to rally late. Also, in their game last week, Texas Tech had the edge in first downs and in overall yardage but fell short on the scoreboard against Kansas State. Now the Red Raiders get a shot at an Iowa State team that beat them last season for the 4th straight time. Prior to these 4 straight defeats in the series, Texas Tech had won 11 of 14 in this series. The Red Raiders catch the Cyclones off an upset win over Oklahoma last week so the set-up here is perfect. Iowa State is over-valued (and Texas Tech under-valued) based on last week's results. I really like the fact that Texas Tech has a respectable ground game that utilizes multiple running backs. Their offensive line has paved the way for big gains plus they have done a great job in pass protection with just 1 sack allowed on the season! Even though the Red Raiders lost last week, they were done in by a blocked punt, an interception, and two missed field goals). Texas Tech offering line value as a huge dog this week as a result of last week's missed opportunities. Also, QB Bowman is expected back for the Red Raiders here but QB Colombi did play well in his place after he exited last week's game. Looks like Bowman will be back though and that is a big boost for this team. The Cyclones have covered just twice the last seven times they have been a home favorite and this is a particularly bad spot for Iowa State after their huge upset of Oklahoma last week. Grab the big points in this one. 8* TEXAS TECH

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Rotation #323 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET - Sooners off back to back losses and unranked. But it was no mistake that the odds makers installed Oklahoma as the favorite in this one. Just because OU has disappointed early does not mean they won't bring their "A game" to the Red River Showdown on Saturday. That said, if the Sooners bring their "A game" and with Texas in a down cycle this season too, which team wins this game? Exactly! Oklahoma was highly regarded for good reason coming into this season. This OU team is capable of plenty and they will respond big this week. While the yardage stats were about equal in the Sooners loss AT Iowa State last week, the Longhorns saw TCU get 25 first downs while UT was held to just 16 first downs and that game was a home game for Texas last week. In their prior game the Horns were lucky to escape Lubbock with a victory as they had to put forth a big rally late and then they won it in overtime. I know the Sooners have not impressed early this season but I especially do not trust this Longhorns team and feel this is the game OU will put it all together. Look for the Sooners to win this rivalry match-up rather handily! 8* OKLAHOMA

ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Friday 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7 ET - People seem to be remembering Georgia Tech's upset of Florida State in their first game of the season. At least based on the way this line has moved. I disagree with the line move. The Seminoles are just 1-2 on the season now with their only win against Jacksonville State and they lost by 42 to Miami. In other words, the Jackets upset of the Noles looks even less impressive now. Also, since that upset win Georgia Tech has lost each of its last two games and the average margin of defeat was 22.5 points per game. Louisville off a tough, tight loss to a Pittsburgh team with, as usual, a very solid and physical defense. I am not holding that 3 point loss against the Cardinals too much. That Panthers team is tough to face especially at Pittsburgh. That defeat, in fact, is now helping to give us value with the Cards in this one. Louisville started the season with a big win over a Western Kentucky team that is better than people realize and then followed that up with putting up 34 points on Miami. Even though the Cardinals lost that game to the Hurricanes, note that the Canes are now 3-0 on the season. When these teams met two years ago, the Yellow Jackets were still running the triple option and they destroyed Louisville's defense as the Cardinals were enduring some dreadful times then. EACH of these teams is different now and this is payback time for the Cards. They get revenge in a big way here against a turnover-prone Yellow Jackets team that has failed to cover EACH of the last SIX times they have been a home dog. Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown 3 TDs and 8 INTs. Look for the Cardinals to win this one by double digits. 8* LOUISVILLE

ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #304 Thursday 8* Houston Cougars (-) vs Tulane Green Wave @ 7:30 ET - The big storyline here is that the Cougars have not played a game yet this season while the Green Wave have 3 games under their belt and therefore hold a huge edge. I certainly understand and respect that viewpoint but it doesn't mean I agree with it! Tulane has played a rather weak schedule thus far. The Green Wave did not impress me until they blew out Southern Miss 68-24 two weeks ago after trailing 14-0 in the first quarter. However, that one big win doesn't mean all is fixed for a Tulane team that barely beat South Alabama in their first game this season and then blew a 24-0 lead to a Navy team that is looking more and more like the Midshipmen team that went 3-10 a few seasons ago. Now the Green Wave take a big step up in level of competition to take on a Houston team that can't wait to finally get on the field and play a real football game! The Cougars have been chomping at the bit and they can't wait to get revenge against Tulane! Last year the Green Wave rallied from a 28-14 halftime deficit to beat the Cougars 38-31. Houston hasn't forgotten as they made the mistake of relaxing after piling up a yardage edge of over 200 yards by halftime of that game! Even though the Cougars lost their QB in an off-season transfer, Tune will be under center and he did get significant playing time last season. That is a key here along with the fact that Houston does return nearly all of their starters from last season! This is a good football team and, even though they may show some rust early on, the Cougars will eventually pull away for a dominating home victory. 8* HOUSTON

Game of the Week – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach CFB Rotation #154 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7:30 ET – The Bulldogs just might have the best defense in the nation. I know the offense didn’t look sharp in their win over Arkansas last week but they at least got some confidence with their 32-point outburst in the 2nd half of that game (helped by turnovers). After working out the kinks last week against the Razorbacks, look for the Georgia offense to be a little stronger this week and, again, there is no questioning how good this Dawgs defense is! As for Auburn, though they won their game against Kentucky by a double digit margin last week, they were quite fortunate! The Tigers actually were outgained by the Wildcats by a margin of 60 yards. Auburn was fortunate to have a 3-0 turnover edge and that helped set them up on a short field for some late scoring. The Tigers truly benefited throughout the game as every key call and bounce of the ball seemed to go their way. With Auburn off that deceiving final score, there is excellent line value here on the Bulldogs as I am projecting a win by a double digit margin here. Georgia has won 6 of its last 7 games both SU and ATS plus the home team has covered 10 of the last 13 games between these teams. Having home edge and the much better defense and an offense that built up some momentum with last week’s performance in the 2nd half, the Bulldogs are the play here in a game they should win big as they wear down Auburn as the game goes on. Lay the points. 10* GEORGIA

Earliest Cash – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach CFB Rotation #118 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) vs Baylor Bears @ Noon ET – This is a tough spot for Baylor. They are playing just their 2nd game of the season and first road game. They have a first year head coach and missed a lot of valuable time when spring practice schedules were disrupted by the pandemic. Yes, the Bears did roll to a big win on the scoreboard in their first game but that was against a bad Kansas team. Also, Baylor only outgained the Jayhawks by 24 yards so the huge margin of victory was quite deceiving. Neal Brown is in his 2nd year as head coach of the Mountaineers. This is a West Virginia team that returns quite a lot of experience from last year’s team and will be extra motivated to bounce back at home this week after losing their Big 12 opener by a two TD margin at Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers have revenge on their minds here as they lost at Baylor last season. I like the defense of West Virginia and they also returned 8 starters on offense (including QB Doege) this season. Look for the home team to improve to 6-3 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these Big 12 foes. The more experienced team and in their 2nd year under their head coach’s new systems, etc compared to a Baylor team that will have some early season growing pains under 1st year head coach Aranda. Grab the value here with the small home dog. 8* WEST VIRGINIA

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #454 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8 ET - This line was as high as a 10.5 earlier this week and now fell to as low as a -6. The fact it is below the key number of 7 as of early game day morning is leading to excellent line value in this match-up. I know NC State has an advantage in terms of having a game under their belt but they just allowed 42 points to Wake Forest. The Wolfpack hung on for the 3-point win but certainly were not overly impressive on the defensive side of the ball as the Demon Deacons piled up 32 first downs in that game. Now they take on a Virginia Tech team that returns nearly the entire defense from last season. The Hokies are undervalued here because some expect them to struggle in their first game without defensive coordinator Bud Foster. I definitely do not see it that way and I also like the fact that a lot of players got valuable experience last season by being "thrown into the fire". Enduring those growing pains last season has the Hokies positioned well for success this season. Justin Fuente is a solid coach and this is the best-looking roster he has had since the 2016 season and Virginia Tech won the ACC Coastal Division that season. History is certainly on the side of the Hokies as they have won 4 straight meetings with NC State and each of the last 3 were double digit wins. Virginia Tech can't wait to get back on the field as they were 8-3 last season before losing their season finale to Virginia and then the Hokies also lost their bowl game. They have waited a long time to again taste victory and they'll be ready here. As for the Wolfpack, they had actually lost 6 straight games to close out last season and barely hung on for 3-point win last week. NC State won't be so fortunate this week as they drop to 1-7 SU their last 8 games. Hokies roll to double digit win. 10* VIRGINIA TECH

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #451 Saturday 8* Texas State Bobcats (+) @ Boston College Eagles @ 6 ET - The Eagles are off a win at Duke but, though they won that game by 20 points, the yardage stats were nearly equal. That is helping to give some value with this line and, from a situational standpoint, I feel we have tremendous value here. The Bobcats are already rounding into mid-season form. Yes, it may be early in the season for many teams but this will be the 4th game already for Texas State. After two tight losses to open up the season, the Bobcats got a huge confidence boost with a road win at UL-Monroe last week. Keep in mind, Texas State lost the game prior to that in double-OT and then their season-opening win was an impressive hard-fought loss by a single possession to a solid SMU team. The Bobcats have a respectable offense with two QB's equally capable of leading the team to big points. With Boston College off an ACC win and having another big ACC game versus North Carolina on deck, I just can't see the Eagles being fully focused here. The Bobcats are in their 2nd year under head coach Jake Spavital and they already look much better in the 2nd year of his systems. Look for them to play the role of "scrappy underdog" in this one and, as a result, it will be tough for the Eagles to build up much of a margin in this one. 8* TEXAS STATE

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #416 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - Never over-react to just one game but that is exactly what the betting markets have done in this case. A line that was nearly a 10 has dropped to under the key number of 7 and I won't hesitate to get involved here. Yes, I am aware of the Cowboys QB injury situation but they have options at the position as they proved in surviving a scare from Tulsa last week. That tight win over the Golden Hurricane is helping to give us line value this week because it was unimpressive. However, it was still a win and OSU allowed just 7 points in the game. I know West Virginia is off a bye and they won their first game of the season 56-10 but they played an FCS school, Eastern Kentucky, who has now lost their first two games by a combined score of 115-10. No the Colonels didn't play Alabama in their first game, they played Marshall and lost 59-0 to the Thundering Herd. The point is that Eastern Kentucky is not a good barometer for an FBS team to test themselves against. The Mountaineers take a big step up in level of competition this week in this Big-12 match-up and Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU/ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Cowboys, of course, are not happy with their performance in last week's win over Tulsa and will be much better this week as they roll to a big home win. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE

Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach CFB Rotation #455 Friday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET – Why would the odds makers open up UTSA as a favorite of slightly less than a TD against a Middle Tennessee State team that has been blasted by a combined score of 89 to 14 in their first two games? Precisely! That -6.5 on the Roadrunners looked quite enticing and sure enough the early action has been on UTSA and has driven the line up to the key number of 7 which makes this an easy choice for me. I am happy to grab the +7 with a hungry underdog that takes a step down in level of competition here against a team that is a bit over-valued right now. First off the Roadrunners are 2-0 but faced an FCS team, Stephen F Austin, last week and a Texas State team that is annually a bad team and coming off a 3-9 season last year. The Roadrunners are on an 8-16 ATS run as a home favorite. Also, these teams have met twice in recent years and the road team won each game. Also, UTSA was originally scheduled to face Memphis but then the Tigers covid-19 situation changed all that so now bring in MTSU. This is a match-up the Runners may think they want but I have a strong feeling this will be upset city. The Blue Raiders are not a great team but they are certainly much better than the performances they have shown against Army and Troy. The key is that MTSU, in my opinion, is the best team that UTSA will have faced so far this season while the Roadrunners are the weakest team the Blue Raiders have faced this season. Don’t let the records fool you here. Great situation for an angry underdog playing with a chip on its shoulder in this one. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE 

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #134 Saturday 8* Tulane Green Wave (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ Noon ET - The situation at Navy is a mess. It is about more than just the embarrassing 55-3 loss to BYU to open the season (by the way, that was a HOME game for the Midshipmen). The fact is that Navy's offensive line lost key players from last season and, for an option team, the blocking patterns of your offensive line and how they function together are critical. Already without their star QB from last season, now the next guy up (Perry Olsen) has indicated he is transferring out of the program. The QB position is critical for any football team of course but especially for one running the triple option like the Midshipmen do. That said, the offense is a mess and lets not forget the defense got thrashed by the Cougars in their season opener. As for Tulane, yes they are off a non-covering win but they rallied to get it and that was on the road. After playing much better in the 2nd half than the 1st they have some momentum here. Speaking of rallies, the Green Wave rallied multiple times after digging a 24-0 hole at Navy last season but ultimately lost the game on a late field goal. Tulane has revenge here as a result and now they are at home for this one. I liked the way the Green Wave defense responded after a poor 1st half on the road in their season opener. Additionally, their offense got a little more comfortable as the game went on and this is a unit that averaged 33 points per game last season. With Navy's offense a mess right now, the Midshipmen won't be able to keep up in this one as it turns into a home blowout. Like the line move from an opener of 8 down to as low as a 6 for this one. 8* TULANE

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #429 Saturday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave (-) @ South Alabama Jaguars @ 7:30 ET - Long time followers know I am a contrarian and so, of course, this match-up caught my eye. You have Tulane laying double digits on the road against a South Alabama team that just won outright at Southern Miss last week. Huge mistake by the odds makers, right? Long time followers also know how I feel about that! The fact is that the old expression "on any given Sunday" that is talked about in NFL is also true in College Football. It is the "anything can happen" that happened for the Jaguars against the Golden Eagles but this is still a South Alabama team with a lot of issues and that went just 5-19 the past two seasons combined. As for Tulane, they crushed that same Southern Miss team in their bowl game last year to cap off a winning season. The Green Wave are a much better team than they used to be and have some true game-breakers at the RB position. I look for Tulane to run all over the Jaguars in this one. South Alabama still not use to facing the option attack and are not a very good team defensively. They allowed over 300 yards rushing last season against Georgia Southern (option team) and the Green Wave variation will prove even tougher to stop. Also, the Jags QB did throw two picks last week and was seen limping off the field late in the game. I know he is "good to go" here from what I am hearing but neither one of those things is a good sign and I just can't see South Alabama stopping this Green Wave offense and, therefore, it turns into a road rout. 10* TULANE 

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #393 Thursday 10* Top Play UAB Blazers (+) @ Miami Hurricanes @ 8 ET - The Blazers already played last week and they defeated Central Arkansas. The fact they gave up a lot of points in the 45 to 35 win is deceiving. Just look at the yardage stats for the real story as Central Arkansas certainly didn't do much. Now, this week of course it is a major step up in class for UAB as they travel to Miami. However, this line is much different too as a result and the Hurricanes are over-priced in my opinion. The last two times the Blazers faced teams from Power 5 conferences they lost badly both times but the yardage starts told a different story. That is similar to the value we're seeing because of last week's "unimpressive win" for UAB. The point is that value gets baked into the lines as a result and especially after the markets start pushing them around. With this one now climbing up to as high as a 14.5 as of gameday morning, it is go time for me. The Blazers have a lot of talent and a lot of returning seniors still hungry to put last season's disappointing ending to the season behind them. Remember they lost in the CUSA Championship game plus lost their bowl game. The Hurricanes probably do find a way to win this game but they are working in a transfer QB (King) and could be a little overconfident too as they take on a team from Conference USA. Also, the game under the belt edge is one that should not be ignored. Give me the big points. 10* UAB

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #243 Monday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (-) @ Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - This line is right around a pick'em so the first thing I want to mention is that if you can not get BYU at plus points then I would recommend playing the money line with Cougars rather than laying points. Of course line movement could impact that decision but just keep that in mind when you go make this wager. Many saw Army, another option team, blast Middle Tennessee on Saturday afternoon and are likely siding with Navy here under the same angle that a defense will struggle badly against the option attack. However, there are some key factors here that have me thinking contrarian to that. One is that, unlike the Blue Raiders, BYU has a strong defense and they return the majority of their top tacklers from last season's defense. Another factor here is that Navy lost their QB from last season and he was truly a special performer, a true star for the program, and is a key loss. Overall, when you look at returning personnel from last season, it is a huge edge for the Cougars in this one in terms of experience level on the roster compared to that of the Midshipmen. Additionally, even though this game is being played at Navy the Midshipmen won't have the usual crowd edge and plus it is a night game so it is no problem for the body clocks of BYU coming from out west. Sometimes when a team like the Cougars has an early game (Noon ET) back east those types of situations can be a problem. Again, no issue with that here and Brigham Young's offense battled a lot of injuries last season but look for the now much healthier unit to surprise some people with how successful it will be early this season. 10* BYU

The Big One - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #283 Monday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 8 PM ET in National Championship @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, LA - I have plenty of respect for both of these teams of course but this is simply too many points for LSU to be laying in a game that Clemson certainly has a great shot at winning outright. First off, about the points, Clemson's win over Ohio State to get here was the FIRST TIME this season that they allowed more than 20 points in a game and yet they still allowed only 23 in that game. In their first 12 games this season, Clemson allowed 14 points or less in 11 of the 12 games! To put that in proper perspective lets compare that to their opponent here. LSU has allowed 37 points or more 4 times this season and also allowed 28 points in 2 other games. That means that in nearly half their games this season LSU has allowed 28 points. Again, that is something the Clemson defense has not done a SINGLE time this season. Now I know LSU has a prolific offense but you can see why I like the defense-first dog in this match-up. The Clemson defense rates a bigger edge than the LSU offense rates when comparing these two teams. Why? Because the Clemson offense is very impressive too! They have averaged just a field goal less on offense while their defense has allowed 10 points less per game. In terms of the experience factor, I like that Clemson has been here so frequently in recent seasons. It definitely rates an edge for their program in that regard in this match-up. In terms of long-term trending here. When LSU enters a game on an ATS winning streak (as a favorite) of 3 or more games they have gone 3-8 ATS. As for Clemson, as a neutral field underdog of 3.5 to 7 points, they have gone 10-3 ATS. I expect an upset but will grab the points for extra insurance in case LSU squeaks out the SU win. 10* CLEMSON

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #277 Saturday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ 11:30 AM ET - The Green Wave lost 5 of their last 6 games this season so it must be some kind of big mistake that this 6-6 Tulane team is favored by a TD over a 6-6 Southern Miss team, right? Of course long-time followers know how I feel about supposed mistakes by odds makers. Look for the Green Wave to blast the Golden Eagles in this one. Southern Mississippi lost their last two games each by a margin of 17 points or more and I expect a similar result here. When you look at their results this season, the Eagles wins almost always came against struggling and/or very weak teams. The Green Wave played a slightly tougher schedule and also hold a big edge in the running game in comparing these two teams. Tulane averaged more than twice as many yards per game on the ground (250) in comparison with Southern Miss (122). Look for the Green Wave to control the clock and control the ground game and wear down the Eagles as this game goes on. I look for Southern Mississippi to struggle with the QB McMillan and the option attack as the Green Wave will also do some damage through the air as the Eagles defense has to respect the ground game of Tulane. As for Southern Miss QB Abraham, he finished the season with a ration of just 6 TDs and 11 INTs in his last 6 games! I feel strongly that that Green Wave will prove to be the better team both on the ground and through the air in this one and I am aware of the fact that Southern Miss has won the last 6 meetings but these teams haven't met in nearly a decade and the Green Wave are a MUCH better football program in recent seasons than in the past. 10* TULANE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #272 Thursday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 3 ET - Similarly to when I used Cal over Illinois a few days ago, I really believe this is another great opportunity to fade a team that is fortunate to even be in a bowl. Yes, the Eagles finished the season with the requisite requirement of 6 wins just like the Illini did. However, just like Illinois, Boston College statistically is not a very good football team and they are fortunate to be here. The Eagles defense has been absolutely horrific this season. Now they take on a Cincinnati team known for its defense. That said, this is a big mismatch. Keep in mind, were it not for a final game upset over Pittsburgh, the Eagles would not have even made a bowl game. The Eagles are allowing 480 yards per game this season. Cincinnati, even though they had to face Memphis twice and Ohio State once, allowed 100 yards LESS per game than Boston College's defense. Other than the 2 games against the Tigers and the one against the Buckeyes, the Bearcats had one other tough performance on defense (a surprising one against East Carolina). But in their other 9 games this season Cincinnati allowed just 15 points per game. Their defense will be the difference in this game. Boston College, prior to the upset win of the Panthers, had allowed 38 points per game in their 6 prior games! The Eagles head coach Addazio was fired so Boston College is using wide receivers coach Gunnell as the interim HC in this game. All the way around this is simply not a good situation for the Eagles and I expect the Bearcats to roll. 10* CINCINNATI

Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #270 Wednesday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 8:45 ET - Value, value, value! The Bulldogs were an 8.5 point favorite and have dropped to as low as a 3.5 point favorite as of New Year's Eve before settling in at a -4. I know the prevailing theory is that Georgia is going to be so disappointed here since they had higher hopes this season before the loss to LSU in the SEC Championship. However, they were a 7 point dog in that game. Yes they got blown out by the Tigers in that game but their season is not defined by that game and it is not as if they went into the game as a 7 point favorite and then blew it. They were a 7 point dog and LSU proved to be too much. Using that as motivation as well as last season's loss to Texas right here in the Sugar Bowl, I expect the Bulldogs to come up with a tremendous effort here. Keep in mind Georgia faced a tougher schedule than Baylor. Keep in mind the Bears lost to Oklahoma twice and those were the toughest match-ups that Baylor faced this season. They fell short each time and the Bears have a history of struggling in big games against tough competition. Yes they won their bowl game last season but Baylor faced Vandy. Now they go from facing a perennial SEC doormat to an SEC team that is one of the best in the country year in and year out. I like the odds for the Bulldogs coming up with a big win here. They were upset by South Carolina this season but won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards in that misleading game. Also, the Bulldogs only other loss was to LSU and we all saw what the Tigers just did to Oklahoma - the same Sooners team that handed the Bears their two losses this season. I feel strongly that Georgia is the better overall team in comparison with Baylor. Also, their 11 wins this season all came by 6 or more points. That is why this line move is truly giving us incredible value here. The Bulldogs remember what happened to them here in the Sugar Bowl last season and, as a results, they're playing this game with something to prove. The favorite rolls in this one. 10* GEORGIA

Rose Bowl Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #268 Wednesday 8* Oregon Ducks (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 5 ET - Two teams I respect greatly but I feel we have solid line value here with the Ducks as a field goal underdog in this one. Oregon allowed 17 points or less in 8 of their last 12 games. That included a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Now of of course Wisconsin is a strong team offensively and they're going to get their fair share against the Ducks defense but you can see why I am giving some shading toward the Oregon D getting more stops than the Badgers D in this one. I like the way the Ducks O matches up with the Badgers D. Led by QB Justin Herbert, Oregon has a solid and balanced offensive attack and their offensive style presents similar challenges to the Wisconsin D that Ohio State did. That is certainly noteworthy as the Buckeyes put up at least 34 points in each game against the Badgers this season. The way the Ducks are built on offense, they will also give Wisconsin some trouble and this is particularly true of their young secondary. Oregon only has 2 losses this season and one came by just 3 points in an upset while the other came on a TD with just 9 seconds left in the game. The Ducks have not been blown out. Now I am not saying Oregon is Ohio State BUT I am saying they are similar and the Buckeyes got the best of the Badgers twice this season and the average margin of defeat was 22 points. Considering all of the above plus the fact we're getting a full field goal here, I am grabbing the dog. Keep in mind, the Badgers ended the regular season on a disappointing note with the loss to Ohio State while the Ducks are riding high and with plenty of momentum after what they did to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. 8* OREGON

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #257 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 3:45 ET - This is an ideal situation in terms of the contrarian aspect that is a big part of my handicapping style. How in the world did an unranked 8-4 team open up as a 2 point favorite over a ranked 10-2 team? Exactly! So the whole world, of course, has jumped on Navy here and moved the line to a -3 for the Midshipmen. That means we now get Kansas State +3 when they were originally favored for a reason. Again, just reiterating I love contrarian spots like this. The fact is that the Midshipmen played a weaker schedule and, in addition to a special teams edge (often overlooked but an important aspect in football), the Wildcats are likely to be successful defending the option. Of course, as per usual heading into a bowl game, Kansas State has had extra time to prepare for Navy's option. But the big key to being able to defend it well is the fact that the Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman just came from spending 5 years as the HC at North Dakota State. He won 4 national titles in his 5 years there and the Bison had to defend the option in FCS action. Also, Klieman's staff includes personnel also experienced with defending the option. Look for Kansas State to hold this Navy offense in check throughout this game. While statistically the defenses look about equal in this match-up they really are not. It comes down to strength of schedule and the types of offenses they faced. The Wildcats faced much tougher tests in the Big 12 than what Navy faced. When the Midshipmen stepped up in level of competition they consistently allowed big point totals. Against Memphis, Tulane, Notre Dame, SMU and Houston it was an average of 39 points per game allowed by Navy. To put that in proper perspective, the Wildcats allowed 27 points or less in 10 of their 12 games this season. The only two they didn't were against Baylor and Oklahoma and it was only the high-scoring Sooners that really gave the Cats D trouble. You can see based on the defensive numbers above why it would not surprise me to see the dog win this game outright by double digits. I'll gladly grab the points here. 10* KANSAS STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #292 Tuesday 8* Virginia Tech (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ Noon ET in Charlotte, NC - The Wildcats are a run heavy team as they switched up their offense after making the QB change to a dual threat QB and running an option offense. I expect the Hokies to do just fine defending the option here. With this expected to be Bud Foster's last game at defensive coordinator for Virginia Tech you know this defense is going to play extremely hard for him. They have had plenty of time to prepare to face Kentucky's option offense and I expect them to play it extremely well in this match-up. The Hokies offense has become stronger with Hooker at QB. Keep in mind they won 6 of 7 after making the QB switch and the only loss was by 1 point to Notre Dame - a game which Hooker was forced to miss with injury. Virginia Tech has the stronger passing game and also I like the fact they have a shot at controlling the ground game with the extra time to prepare for this one. After rare back to back strong games offensively, Kentucky gets held in check in this one as the Hokies go all out for Foster. The Wildcats are 12-23 ATS (8-27 SU) when off back to back games in which they scored 31 points or more. Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU when off a road game this season. Also, in the past 3 seasons combined, the Hokies are 4-1 SU when off an upset loss as a road favorite. 8* VIRGINIA TECH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #250 Monday 10* Top Play California Golden Bears (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 4 ET - Illinois is such a bad team statistically and yet they somehow battled and made it to a 6-6 record and a bowl game. The Illini thrived on turnovers as that was a key to the few victories that they did have over quality competition. That is unlikely to work in the favor of Illinois in this one as California is known for taking good care of the ball. That said, I look for the Illini to struggle badly in this one. Cal has a great defense and also their offense - though certainly no powerhouse - does play much better when QB Garbers is healthy and under center. The Bears have the much stronger defensive line (which will be a key in this game) and they played a tougher schedule overall and this bowl game is practically a home game for Cal with how close it is to their campus. The Illini had a fluke 4-game winning streak that involved some miracle wins but their last two games of the season (both losses by 9 or more points) and the fact their 4 most recent losses have come by an average margin of 17 points tell the full story here. Also, in Big Ten action Illinois benefited from not facing Penn State or Ohio State this season. My projection is a win in the 17 point range for Cal as their defense has allowed 24 points or less in 10 of 12 games this season and the Illini defense is going to struggle to stop the Bears offense now that Garbers is healthy again. Illinois gave up an average of 37 points per game in their match-ups with E. Mich, Nebr, Minn, Mich, Mich St and Northwestern. 10* CALIFORNIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #243 Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET in Fiesta Bowl @ State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ - I feel we're getting excellent line value here. Of course both teams are undefeated on the season but the Buckeyes have played a much tougher schedule. The Tigers were favored by at least 24 points in 12 of their 13 games this season! Clemson really hasn't been tested this season. As for Ohio State, they faced a tough Wisconsin team twice and also did battle with Penn State and had to play at Michigan this season. All of those were true battles where the Buckeyes had to up their game. Did they do it? You bet! They didn't just win those games...they dominated. Ohio State won those 4 games - all against quality competition - by a combined score of 156-72. That works out to an "average" score of 39 to 18 and there is certainly nothing "average' about that when you consider the quality of those opponents. The only time Clemson was favored by less than 24 points was when they faced Texas A & M. Though they did win that game by 2 TDs they only won the yardage battle by 100 yards. The Aggies were hurt by 2 turnovers and 85 yards in penalties. I respect Clemson (who wouldn't respect a 13-0 team?) but I feel strongly that the battle-tested Buckeyes are going to prove to be the better 13-0 team on Saturday! Keep in mind the Tigers were lucky to beat North Carolina earlier this season and won that game by just a single point. Compare that to an Ohio State team that has, without a doubt, played the tougher schedule, and yet has won EVERY game by a double digit margin. Look for Clemson to drop to 8-14 ATS when they enter a game on an ATS winning streak of 4 or more games. The Buckeyes, when the posted total is in a range from 56.5 to 63 points, have gone an incredible 45-1 SU the last 46. They win again in that role here as the Tigers offense (held under 400 yards by A & M and UNC this season) won't be able to keep up with Ohio State in this one. Keep in mind the Buckeyes defense has been fantastic this season even against tougher competition than the types of teams that Clemson faced this season. 10* OHIO STATE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #241 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 4 ET in Peach Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - Too many points here. This line opened up at 11.5 and has gone all the way up to a 14 in most books as of early game-day morning. The Sooners defense has quietly become much better than people realize. That is helping to give us line value in this game because everyone still thinks of Oklahoma as only being a powerhouse on offense but OU has proven they can get some stops when they need to. As for LSU, of course it goes without saying that they have had a fantastic season but many are overlooking the fact that the Tigers defense actually has allowed more yardage than the Sooners defense on the season. LSU has played a tougher schedule BUT only slightly tougher. This Tigers team is simply not two touchdowns better than Oklahoma. No way. Because Oklahoma has one loss and LSU is undefeated on the season, we're seeing a bit of an inflated line here. That is also because the Sooners are on a 2-6 ATS run their last 8 games. Keep in mind the Tigers have allowed 37 points or more 4 times this season! Oklahoma has allowed 27 points or less in 9 of 13 games this season. The Sooners only loss came by just 5 points. LSU has had 3 wins of 7 or less points. I am looking for this game to go down to the wire and if the Tigers do pull it out, look for it to be by a single possession. Look for OU to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they have been an underdog. Grab the big points in this one. 8* OKLAHOMA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #233 Friday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs USC Trojans @ 8 ET in Holiday Bowl @ SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, CA - With USC having won 5 of their past 6 games and also playing this game practically in their back yard, many will be siding with the Trojans here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side in this one. Iowa is the much better defense in this match-up and here is an intriguing stat for you about this one: the favorite won ALL 12 Hawkeyes games this season SU. Look for that trend to continue here and, as only a 2 point favorite in this one, any SU win by Iowa here is likely to also be an ATS win. After 3 straight seasons of allowing less than 400 yards per game, the Trojans defense regressed this season. USC allowed 415.2 yards per game on the year and 28 points per game. The Hawkeyes defense allowed less than HALF that average as they gave up just 13 points per game this season. Iowa is also highly motivated to try to get a 10-win season while USC's best finish would be a 9-win season and the fact is coach Helton already appears to be off the hot seat since the Trojans went 5-1 after a 3-3 start this year. Southern Cal is on a 5-15 ATS run in December games. USC also has gone 0-6 ATS the past two seasons when they entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games SU. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games. I am going with a motivated team that has the much better defense in this one. Look for Hawkeyes QB Stanley, whom did have some big games this season against lesser defenses, to take advantage of facing a rather mediocre defense in this one. 10* IOWA

ESPN Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #231 Friday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 6:45 ET in Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX - The Aggies went 7-5 this season. NONE of the 7 wins came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. All 5 times that Texas A & M stepped up in class (in terms of the level of opponent they were facing) they lost all 5 games! That said, Oklahoma State is no cupcake and I like the Cowboys in this match-up! Oklahoma State was 8-3 this season prior to losing their regular season finale to the Sooners. Though known for their offense, note that the Cowboys actually held the high-powered Oklahoma offense to their season low in total yardage this year! Though Aggies head coach Fisher led them to a big bowl win last season, he entered last year's bowl with a mediocre 4-3 record in bowls. Cowboys coach Gundy has a 9-4 record in bowls! Last year's Texas A & M bowl win was their first since 2014 and I still don't trust them in bowls. One game doesn't change everything. This is the 14th straight bowl for the Cowboys and Gundy's 9-4 mark in bowls is no fluke. The fact that we also get them as a sizable dog in this match-up and the fact that they have the definitive edge on offense is why I am backing OSU big in this one! Keep in mind the Aggies scored just 7 points against LSU in their regular season finale. That is the same LSU team that, though very powerful on offense, allowed 37 points or more 4 times this season and yet Texas A & M scored a measly 7 points against them! Aggies won't be able to keep up with the Cowboys in this one. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #224 Thursday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 4 ET in Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA - The location of this game certainly favors the Bulldogs as they are about 70 miles east of Shreveport. The Hurricanes certainly have a history of disappointing in bowl games and I don't see them being too excited for this one. Also, as a favorite of 31 points or less this season, Miami went 2-6 ATS this season! 5 of those ATS losses were also SU losses as the Canes are no strangers to upsets. Another one could be on tap here! The Bulldogs have won 5 straight bowl games while the Hurricanes have lost 8 of their last 9 bowl games. Louisiana Tech is on a 4-1 ATS run in bowls while Miami is on a 1-7 ATS run in bowls. Of course looking at this regular season the Hurricanes have played the much tougher schedule but are they really ready to play here? Certainly going to the Independence Bowl in Shreveport was not something on the preseason "goals list" of the Canes. Conversely, the Bulldogs are certainly hungry to go for a 10-win season here and to be able to do that so close to home. Motivation is a key in a match-up like this and I am grabbing what is, in essence, a home dog in this one. The Bulldogs also benefit from being as high as a +7 in some spots as of game day morning. 10* LOUISIANA TECH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #219 Monday 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 2:30 ET in Gasparilla Bowl @ Tampa, FL - The Knights, as you can see from the big line posted on this one, are no doubt the much better team in this match-up. However, how motivated will they be here after playing on a much bigger stage in recent bowl seasons and now being relegated to the Gasparilla Bowl on the Monday before Christmas. UCF had actually been playing on New Year's Day bowls in recent seasons. As for Marshall, their certainly happy to be here and have played well in Tampa in recent bowl seasons. The Thundering Herd also are lead by a coach (Doc Holliday) whom has great success in bowls - 6-0 SU and ATS his last 6. Now I am certainly not projecting an outright upset here but I am projecting that the Herd will have no problem staying within two TDs here and I actually expect them to lose by just single digits. Marshall has a respectable defense and prior to their season-ending 30-27 win, had allowed 24 points or less in 6 of 7 games. In those 6 games the Thundering Herd allowed an average of just 17.5 points per game and keep in mind that is what the spread on this game opened up at. In other words, great value considering Marshall is certainly not going to get shutout here! The Herd are taking on a UCF defense that allowed just 7 points in their season finale but the Knights entered that game having allowed 21 points or more in 9 straight games! When coach Holliday's teams are an underdog they have produced a 10-3 ATS record the last 13 times. Look for another cover here as the Thundering Herd take advantage of a Central Florida team lacking in motivation in this one. 10* MARSHALL

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #215 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (-) vs Boise State in Las Vegas Bowl @ 7:30 ET - Just one loss on the season and playing already on December 21st? Say hello to Boise State. An underdog even though playing a 7-5 team? Say hello to Boise State. Ranked and facing an unranked team and yet still not favored? Say hello to Boise State. You get the point. The Broncos might fool the masses here but they're not fooling me. This line is set this way for good reason. I am taking the unranked 7-5 team. Sure the Huskies had bigger hopes this season but when the Pac-12 portion of the schedule starts 2-4 SU your fate is pretty well sealed. What happened since then? Washington won 2 of their last 3 games including blasting rival Washington State in their season finale. The Huskies are playing hard for coach Petersen here in his final game. Lets also not forget he use to coach Boise State. Some nice added motivation here for sure. The Broncos lone loss this season was at BYU in OT. That is the same Cougars team that Washington (also facing them on the road) smashed by 26 points! The Huskies have played the much tougher schedule this season. Also their defense is very good this season. In road games the Huskies allowed an average of 19 points per game. Boise State, in road games this season, allowed 26.5 points per game this season. Strength of schedule, intangibles, the coaching factor, the neutral site, it all adds up to a ranked team being the dog here for all the right reasons. The Huskies roll by double digits in this one. 10* WASHINGTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #204 Friday 10* Top Play Utah State Aggies (-) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 7:30 ET in Frisco Bowl @ Arlington Stadium in Frisco, TX - Give Kent State credit for getting here but they were fortunate to say the least. It wasn't that long ago that the Golden Flashes sat at 3-6 on the season and they were trailing 27 to 6 against Buffalo before a fantastic rally (or collapse by the Bulls!) saw Kent State rally for a miracle win. Without that win Kent State wouldn't even be here and I feel strongly they are outclassed here and are going to get steamrolled. Aggies QB Jordan Love will be entering the 2020 NFL draft and he is about to put on a show here on Friday night. Love had a great 2018 season with a 32-6 ratio. This season his ratio is 19-17 so he had a big dropoff to say the least. Now, against a MAC defense that is one of the worst in the nation in pass defense efficiency and that also generated just 21 sacks on the year, is about to be picked apart! The Golden Flashes can't just focus on the run either. That's because Utah State has a very capable ground game and, by the way, Kent State allowed 249 rushing yards per game this season. This is a sizable mismatch and the fact the line was up near 10 was more in line with where it should be as this one will be a blowout by a double digit margin. The fact this line fallen below a 7 means superb value with the favorite and I won't hesitate to go to my highest rating in this one. 10* UTAH STATE

Power Five Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #117 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (+) vs LSU Tigers in SEC Championship Game @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA @ 4 ET - LSU opened up around a 3 point favorite in this game and now the line has been driven up to the Tigers becoming a 7 point choice in this match-up. It makes sense because offense is what grabs the public's attention but it is the Bulldogs edge on defense that I feel gives the underdog a significant edge in this one. Georgia is a 7 point dog here and, keep in mind, this is a team that has NOT allowed more than 17 points in regulation time of ANY game this ENTIRE season! I know the Tigers offense has been fantastic this season but lets not discount what the Bulldogs defense is capable of here. Last year Georgia lost badly to LSU but that was a turnover-driven defeat plus this year's Bulldog's defense is way ahead of last year's D. The Dawgs are allowing an average of only 10 points per game this season! Note that LSU has allowed 28 points or more in FIVE games this season! Also, in games played away from home, the Tigers allowed 37 points or more in FOUR of FIVE games! Their offense is great but those are scary numbers for the LSU defense when they are away from home. Look for Georgia to take advantage and I would not be surprised to see the Bulldogs get the upset here and certainly they are in line for the cover. The Bulldogs are on a 7-1 ATS run in neutral site games. The Tigers are on a 1-4 ATS run when they enter a game off a 2-game homestand. The LSU defense has not traveled well this season and I look for that trend to reach 1-5 ATS when the final gun sounds on this one! 10* GEORGIA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #113 Saturday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (+) @ Memphis Tigers in AAC Championship Game @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats rested QB Desmond Ridder in last week's game against Memphis because the contest had no bearing on anything for Cincinnati. I am well aware of the fact Ridder has been struggling but he had been hurt too. This was effecting his play. He could have played last week but the Cats held him out to make sure he could heal up even more for this game. That means he is essentially coming off a bye week and that is certainly noteworthy. Ridder has thrown for 5 TDs against just 2 INTs plus run for 169 yards and 8 yards per carry in the two games he has played this season when coming off a bye week. Look for fresh legs and arm from Ridder in this one but also note that back-up QB Ben Bryant got some valuable work in last week's game against the Tigers. The Cincy offense is in good shape here and in terms of comparing the two defenses, the Bearcats certainly hold the edge. Prior to last week's loss (again a meaningless game for Cincinnati) the Cats defense has allowed an average of just 18 points per game over 9 preceding games. The Tigers defense, prior to a win over South Florida and then last week's game which meant nothing to Cincy, had allowed 33 points per game their 6 preceding games. The Bearcats are going to be tough for the Tigers to defeat here, let alone cover the large spread! The Cats are 10-2 this season with the only losses coming to powerful Ohio State and then last week's meaningless game against this same Memphis team. I am grabbing the big points here. 8* CINCINNATI

Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #103 Friday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET in Pac-12 Championship Game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - Waiting has paid off as this line is now a 7. Keep in mind the very first line that popped on this game globally was a 2.5 and we have seen major movement ever since. Now that it has reached all the way up to a +7 it is "go time" for me with this one. The Utes have covered 8 straight games ATS and so of course they are attracting a ton of attention here. However, not enough respect is being given to an Oregon team that is having a great season too. Utah does rate the edge on defense but, keep in mind, the Ducks are at least as good, if not better, on the offensive side of the ball. Also, Oregon has the special teams edge in this match-up. The weather is not going to be great for this game with windy conditions and rain moving into the area. A lot of times that favors an underdog. Keep in mind a favorite has to not only win the game but build a margin to cash in at the window. It becomes much tougher to build a margin when you're also batting the elements. The Ducks hold the special teams edge and the kicking and punting game can become critical in a game like this where weather comes into play. I would not be surprised to see Oregon get the upset win and the fact we are not able to get +7 with the Ducks is of course a key with this game now reaching that key number as of mid-morning Friday. Oregon is 10-2 SU this season and the two losses came by 6 or less points. The pressure is on the Utes here. They still have hopes of making the CFB playoff and a huge win here is required. The Ducks are playing this game with no pressure on them. That makes a huge difference. Also, in the only two tough games that Utah has played away from home this season they beat Washington by just 5 points and they lost at USC by 7 points. Are they really going to travel outside of Utah here and beat a high quality Oregon program by more than 7 points in tough weather conditions in a game in which all the pressure is on the Utes as well? I highly doubt that. The Ducks are 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS this season when off a home win. The Utes are a long-term 1-3 ATS as a neutral field fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Utah beat Oregon last year but head coach Kyle Whittingham entered that game with a career record of 1-5 SU against the Ducks and it is payback time here. Oregon had been undefeated in Pac-12 action before their loss to Arizona State two weeks ago. That said, it is not surprising that they followed up that loss with a lackluster and sloppy effort against Oregon State last week. They turned the ball over 4 times and it was an ugly game in which the Ducks were actually even a bit fortunate to win the game by 14 points. While the Utes have already played their best football of the season, don't be surprised if that is what we now see from the Ducks in this one and I would not be surprised at all to see an upset in this game but certainly am happy to grab the 7 points as added insurance here. 10* OREGON

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #371 Saturday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 3:30 ET - Minnesota is ranked higher than the Badgers and plus they have home field for this game and yet Wisconsin is favored. Must be some type of egregious mistake by the odds makers, right? You guys know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" in the marketplace. The fact is that Wisconsin is the better team and they will win the Big Ten West by getting revenge in this game for last year's loss to the Golden Gophers. Keep in mind the Badgers had beaten Minny 14 times in a row prior to last year's loss. Wisconsin has played the much tougher schedule this season and the odds makers recognize that and it is factored into this line but the betting markets are a little behind the power curve here and don't really realize that. The result is value for us here especially with the weather conditions likely limiting the only edge (passing game) that the Golden Gophers might have had in this game. The only tough win that Minnesota has is over Penn State and the Nittany Lions are proving that they are a bit over-rated. The Gophers lost to Iowa in their only other real challenge this season. As for the Badgers, they've had to battle with Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa this season. Plus they blasted Michigan State 38-0 and the Spartans are better than their record would indicate. Though the Badgers, like everyone else, lost to Ohio State this season they beat Iowa plus crushed the Wolverines too. Wisconsin is the more battle-tested team coming into this game and they are favored with good reason. The only reason the Badgers lost last season was a 4-0 turnover deficit. The year before, at Minnesota, Wisconsin won 31-0 and held the Golden Gophers to 133 yards of offense. Minny is a better team than they use to be but they are vastly over-rated this season and the weather also will be factor in this game that favors the Badgers who will pound the Gophers defsne on the ground all game long. I like the Badgers to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 10* WISCONSIN

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #353 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Syracuse Orange @ 12:30 ET - Wake Forest was favored by nearly a TD earlier in the week and now is down to nearly a FG favorite as of game day. I am fading the move here and grabbing the Demon Deacons. The Orange are reduced to playing for pride as they are just 4-7 on the season. Wake Forest is 8-3 on the year and they were much more dominant against Duke last week then the final score indicates. That is leading to line value here and another key is that the Demon Deacons are playing with revenge from a loss to Syracuse last season. The Orange are just 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and the Demon Deacons are not only the better defense but also the much better offense in this match-up. 8* WAKE FOREST

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (-) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 2:30 ET - The Hawkeyes have held their last two opponents to season lows in total points. Iowa is known for their defense and they are allowing only 115 yards on the ground per game this season. However, they are not completely inept on offense either. They didn't have the points to show it for last week against Illinois but note that QB Stanley had over 300 passing yards in that game. The Hawkeyes won't make the same mistake they made against the Huskers last season. It ended up being a 3-point win for Iowa because they allowed the Cornhuskers to rally from 15 points down to tie the game with only a few minutes left before Iowa then kicked the game-winning field goal. Nebraska is off a huge win but it came against a horrible Maryland team. Lets not forget the Huskers are on a 2-9 ATS run and also have covered just ONCE the last EIGHT times they have been a home dog. Facing the Cornhuskers at Nebraska is not what it once was in terms of being difficult on a visitor. By the way, the Hawkeyes are 18-3 ATS their last 21 games as a road favorite. Look for the visitor to improve to 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams. In terms of SU winner, Iowa has won 5 of the last 6 meetings. Nebraska has not beaten a good team all season. They have 5 wins and 4 came against teams with a combined record of 10-34. The other win came against a 6-5 Illinois team that is vastly over-rated and extremely fortunate to have 6 wins. Now facing an 8-3 Iowa team whose 3 losses came by a total of 14 points (against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin), the Huskers will prove to be out-classed here. Nebraska has 5 losses including 3 by a total of 84 points (!) to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Minnesota. The Golden Gophers team that beat the Cornhuskers by 27 points is the same Minnesota team that Iowa beat a few weeks ago. Big difference right now in the level of these programs right now, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. 10* IOWA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #302 Tuesday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The Zips showed last week at Miami (Ohio) that they weren't going to just lay down to end the season. It has been a miserable season for Akron and they entered that game 0-10 SU and ATS. However, as a massive underdog of 4 TDs the Zips hung tough with the RedHawks throughout that game and lost by just 3 points. Keep in mind that was on the road too and Miami has had a strong season. That is why I love taking Akron this week as a 4 TD underdog at home. Yes Ohio University needs to win this game for bowl eligibility but the Zips would love to spoil that for the Bobcats and avoid an 0-12 season in the process. While I don't see that happening, I do expect them to hang around in this game all the way through. Ohio U is off a dominating win at Bowling Green but they entered that game just 2-8 ATS this season. As bad as the Zips season has been they have had only one loss by more than 29 points in their past 10 games. Again, Akron would love to spoil the Bobcats bowl hopes and, while I don't see that happening here, I do expect them to hang within a couple scores throughout this game. The Zips are actually 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the last time they hosted Ohio U they won outright as a double digit dog! Last week's big Bobcats win was the first time this season they had won a game by a margin of more than 21 points. Also, Ohio U's first 4 wins this season came by an average margin of 10.5 points. This game will be much closer than many are expecting. 10* AKRON

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #185 Saturday 10* Top Play North Texas Mean Green (-) @ Rice Owls @ 3:30 ET - First off QB Mason Fine is probable for this game and of course that was an important aspect of this play. With Fine at the controls the Mean Green offense is tough to stop and I don't foresee the Owls being able to keep up in this one. North Texas is angry here as they have had time to work up plenty of energy for this one. The Mean Green got demolished 52-17 by Louisiana Tech before their bye week. Keep in mind, prior to this North Texas had averaged 37 points per game in their 6 prior games. Look for their offense to bounce back huge here and keep in mind they are facing a 1-win Rice team. In similar match-ups with struggling teams in CUSA, the Mean Green annihilated UTSA 45-3 and UTEP 52-26. I know the Owls have been more competitive this season but, again, they just don't match up well here because they don't have the offense to keep up. Rice is off a shocking upset win at Middle Tennessee but the Owls were outgained in that game and won thanks to turnovers. Rice still didn't get to the 400 yard mark on offense and they allowed more than 450 yards but won the game and the point is that the Owls 377 yards was a season high. So Rice had their best game on offense and yet still were fortunate to win. They won't be so fortunate here. North Texas has defeated the Owls in each of their last 3 meetings and all wins came by 7 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.7 points! The Mean Green are 8-2 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing a team with a losing record. When Rice is off a road game (in this case was massive upset too since they were a double digit dog) they have gone 4-12 ATS! 10* NORTH TEXAS

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ Noon ET - West Virginia is off an upset win at Kansas State but the Mountaineers were outgained by over 100 yards. That has set up nice line value to go against them in this spot. West Virginia entered last week's game against the Jayhawks having lost 5 straight games and a number of them were blowout losses. The Mountaineers average margin of defeat in those 5 losses was nearly 20 points. Oklahoma State enters this game having won 3 straight games and all 7 of their wins this season have come by 7 points or more. This one will too. The Cowboys are the better team and the much hotter team and they keep their momentum going here. While the defenses here rate about equal, the Cowboys rate a huge edge on offense and that will be the difference in this game. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #150 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Noon ET - Minnesota in a bad situation here for a myriad of reasons. They are suffering unbeaten letdown after their first loss of the season last week. So the Golden Gophers are off a huge game at Iowa and they also have another tough opponent, Wisconsin, on deck for their season finale at home next week. I could easily see the Gophers struggling a little mentally in this match-up with the Wildcats. Along the lines of struggling mentally, Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan is also questionable for this game after he got his bell rung late in the game against the Hawkeyes last week. The Wildcats have had an ugly season but a huge upset win over a ranked Gophers team would sure be  nice way for Northwestern to close out the home portion of their schedule this season. In their home finale, I look for the Cats to step up big and I expect them to lose this by no more than a single touchdown and we're getting a pair of touchdowns here thanks to the market move. Yes it was a very bad UMass team that the Wildcats faced last week but that is also the type of win that helps to build confidence. Off that blowout win and playing at home for the 3rd straight week and 5th time in 6 weeks, the Cats will be in this game all the way! 8* NORTHWESTERN 

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #144 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - Iowa has a fantastic defense but a pedestrian offense. That makes it seem tough to lay big points with the Hawkeyes in a spot like this. However, Illinois is ripe for a beatdown. They have had some unbelievable good fortunate in wins versus Wisconsin and at Michigan State and now reality will set in after a 4-game winning streak that included wins over Purdue (without QB) and Big Ten bottom-feeder Rutgers. Note that prior to this streak the Illini had allowed 34 points or more in 4 straight games and an average of 40 points per game during that 4-game losing streak. Even though they had the miracle win at Michigan State in their most recent game, they did allow 34 points to the Spartans. That holds significance here because the Spartans, like the Hawkeyes, are known for struggling on offense but, just like so many other teams have done, Michigan State got to 34 against the Illini. So, about that Iowa defense....they are allowing an average of only 12.4 points per game. Keep in mind that includes games against some top Big Ten teams like Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I feel the Illini won't even get to 10 points here but even if they do, don't be surprised if the Hawkeyes have one of their best games of the season on offense as they take advantage of facing weaker competition here. The Illini have been so fortunate of late they didn't need the bye week. That is actually going to kill the mojo they had going. Home team wins this one by at least 21 in my opinion. 8* IOWA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Thursday 10* Top Play NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 8 ET - The Wolfpack have struggled recently but their defense looks healthier now than it has in recent games and also it was their secondary that was injury riddled. That means they match-up better with a run-heavy team like Georgia Tech than they would against teams that like to air it out. That being said, I like this match-up for NC State. Yes both teams have had tough seasons but the Wolfpack actually outgained Louisville last week and were simply done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. As for Georgia Tech, they got smashed by Virginia Tech last week by a count of 45-0. The Yellow Jackets are getting outgained by nearly 165 yards per game in ACC action! The Wolfpack, on the other hand, actually have a positive yardage margin in ACC games this season! The road team has won 5 straight in this series and the Wolfpack need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. For the Yellow Jackets, their season is over and they certainly played like it last week too! More of the same expected here. 10* NC STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #106 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Toledo Rockets @ 7:30 ET - Both teams off disappointing losses but Toledo now has to go on the road after battling all the way back from a 28-7 deficit at home against Northern Illinois only to lose on a late field goal. Though mathematically alive in the MAC West race, the Rockets know the reality is that the loss to the Huskies essentially squashed those dreams. This is a very young team too and they have struggled often when facing adversity. I expect that to be the case again here. As for the Bulls, they are off a crazy loss to Kent State where everything improbable actually happened in the Golden Flashes late comeback from a 27-6 deficit. Now with a well-coached Buffalo team at home off a loss and having the much better defense in this match-up in this one, I am look for the Bulls to win in a rout. Buffalo ranks 9th in the nation on defense while Toledo ranks 116th! Also, the Rockets are on an 0-5 ATS run overall. Toledo is also 0-4 ATS on the road this season. Buffalo opened the season with a non-covering win over an FCS school but, at home, in FBS action, the Bulls have been red hot ever since as they are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a host against FBS schools this season. As you can see, triple perfect ATS support for backing the home team in this one. Lay the points with the host as they dominate this one with their strong pass-rushing ability on defense and their dynamic ground game on offense. The Bulls dictate the tempo in this one and control the clock in this game and win by double digits. 10* BUFFALO 

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (-) vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Huskies are off a 31-28 win at Toledo but Northern Illinois actually led that game huge before the Rockets rallied late. It was a tight win but the point is that had the Huskies been at home for that one I would have expected the blowout to go on for the full sixty minutes. Now here they are getting a rare home game as they have had a very home-heavy schedule thus far. Northern Illinois finishes the season with a pair of home games and I expect them to make the most of it. Eastern Michigan is off a huge win but it came against an Akron team that is the worst team out of all 130 teams in FBS! The Zips are simply dreadful this season. Prior to that win the Eagles had lost 4 of 5 games with the average margin of defeat being 16 points. These teams each struggle on offense but the Huskies are the better defense and have home field here and have won 11 straight games in this series. I look for the streak to reach a dozen games and I expect the victory margin to be double digits just as the Huskies two prior home wins were this season. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #402 Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 7 ET - LSU is simply over-valued here and it is a great spot to fade them after their huge win at Alabama last week. Keep in mind, the Tigers were on the road at Vandy this season and were favored by 24 points in this game. In other words, this line today is basically saying that Ole Miss is just as bad of a team as 2-7 Vanderbilt and that couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, the Rebels beat the Commodores 31-7 earlier this season. I am confident that, especially because they are at home and especially because they catch LSU off such a huge win, Ole Miss is absolutely going to hang around in this game for all 4 quarters. Keep in mind, the Rebels ugliest loss this season was by 28 points and that was at Alabama. One could argue that means LSU should win this game by a similar margin of course. However, note that the Rebels other 5 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of just 7.4 points.  The loss to Alabama was the only time a game "got away" from Ole Miss. Since they are at home for this one, and catching LSU in a flat spot, look for this one to play out much differently than the one against the Crimson Tide did. The Tigers have failed to cover 10 of the last 12 times they were off an outright upset win on the road and that is the case here after LSU's win at Alabama as a dog last week. After starting the season 2-1, Mississippi has since gone 2-5. However, they are a viewing today's game as a huge opportunity to make some headlines for sure and note the following: Rebels, when entering a game after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, have gone 3-1 ATS and SU. Now of course an upset would be a reach here but I do expect the Rebels to lose this game by only 1 or two scores. They're highly motivated and hang tough in this one all the way. 10* OLE MISS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #387 Saturday 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ Noon ET - Last season Michigan State got rolled at home in this match-up in a non-covering loss. However, the Spartans entered that one on a 10-0 ATS run in this series. In 2 of the last 3 meetings prior to last season Michigan State pulled the outright upset. The Spartans are very angry here after their historic collapse at home last week. They had Illinois beat and done for the day until a late TD right at the end of the first half gave the Illini unexpected life. To that point Illinois had managed scoring only 3 points. It is not a valid excuse for the Spartans but it happened and the game played out completely different than it would have if that play had not happened. Momentum is huge in football and it completely skewed the results of that game last week and has led to line value here as everyone is now very anti-Spartan. The fact is that Michigan State is always up for this rivalry game and they'll be ready to go here and their defense, last week notwithstanding, is good enough to keep them in this game all the way. Michigan is off a bye week which followed a blowout win at Maryland. Huge edge for the Spartans here, right? Actually they got blasted at Wisconsin earlier this season and that was coming off a bye week. Now of the course I am not saying the Spartans are the Badgers and also Big Blue is at home for this game but what I am saying is this...that ugly loss in Madison dropped the Wolverines to 1-7 ATS when coming off a bye week. I expect the Wolverines to find a way to win this game but I expect Michigan wins it by just a single score. 8* MICHIGAN STATE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #315 Friday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) @ Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Lets talk about injuries and suspensions first because that is a key reason that this line has been driven from -2 to a -6.5 as of early game day morning. First off the Bulldogs are without a safety (James Jackson) but the Thundering Herd are without one (Brandon Drayton) too. As for the WR spot, yes I know that Adrian Hardy is Louisiana Tech's "big name" guy and he is suspended for this game but when you look at the Bulldogs statistically, they have a group of wide receivers all in the same range of total yards as Hardy PLUS with a lot more touchdowns too. Hardy is not as big of a loss as people think and, keep in mind, Marshall lost their starting slot wide receiver, Artie Henry, early in the season. So the big glaring one, and main driver of this line, is the suspension of QB J'Mar Smith for La Tech. I am here to tell you that the Bulldogs have capable back-ups and the right guy, even if it is more than one QB that sees action here, will be who gets the majority of playing time here and they are NOT going up against some elite defense either. Louisiana Tech has been fantastic this season and a lot of it has to do with their system on offense. In other words, others can step in and have better functionality with the offense than you would think. The Bulldogs are having a great season that side of the ball and their defense is roughly equal with that of the Thundering Herd. That said, I have no hesitation in going contrarian here and backing the big dog and fading the masses! The Bulldogs are averaging a dozen points more per game than Marshall this season. I am aware that La Tech has faced a weak schedule this season but the Thundering Herd haven't exactly faced a powerhouse docket this season either. Also, the Bulldogs have covered 15 of last 20 as a road dog while the Thundering Herd have covered just 5 of their last 21 when favored in a Conference USA clash. 10* LOUISIANA TECH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #312 Thursday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - The markets are all over Buffalo here but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Kent State. Yes the Bulls have won 3 straight games and the Golden Flashes have lost 3 straight games. However, Kent State just was on the road at Toledo a little over a week ago and they took the Rockets to the wire and they were a 7 point dog in that game. There is not a huge difference between Toledo and Buffalo in terms of their level of play within the MAC and the Golden Flashes lost by just two points to the Rockets. Yet now, after this line opened up at a 3, it has been driven all the way up to a 6 even though Kent State is at home for this one and playing with revenge from an embarrassing loss to the Bulls last season. Also, this is just the 2nd home game for the Golden Flashes since late September. They're going to want to make the most of this! That said, Kent State is going to fight all the way to the final gun in this one. The Golden Flashes last 3 losses have come by an average margin of just 5 points per game. They have been "right there" in each game and this time I see them getting over the hump and getting the win. Kent State is a much more competitive team than they've been in the past and yet the still carry that "negative perception" with the marketplace from years of ugliness. They will fight tooth and nail in this game and an outright upset would not surprise but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Note that Bulls are off a big road win that preceded their bye week and they also had a big road win against a dreadful Akron team. However, prior to that they started the season 0-3 on the road with all 3 losses by a double digit margin. The Golden Flashes are in this one all the way. 10* KENT STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #307 Wednesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (+) @ Toledo Rockets @ 8 ET - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian when it comes to handicapping games. That said, why in the world would a 6-3 Toledo be such a small favorite at home against a 3-6 Northern Illinois team? Exactly! Give me the underdog Huskies here while most of the world will likely be jumping on the Rockets! Now, I am never a contrarian without some reasoning of course and Northern Illinois does need to win out to be bowl eligible. They still have that going for them and, in the process, they'd love to hurt Toledo's chances of winning the MAC West. From a statistical standpoint the Rockets certainly have the better defense but note that defense tends to win football games this time of year and the Huskies have the much better defense. Based on yardage allowed Toledo ranks #117 out 130 teams while Northern Illinois ranks a much stronger 51st on defense. The Huskies have won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these teams and I expect another victory here on the road and will grab the couple points being offered. We might start to see some +3 on this one but I am happy enough already at the +2.5 that is prevalent right now. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6:30 ET - With Ohio U having home field it is is not a huge surprise that the betting markets have flipped the favorite on this one. Western Michigan opened up as the favorite in this one and now they are the dog. I love fading this type of a line move and especially when I have a strong situation favoring our side that many might be overlooking. The Bobcats didn't just beat the Broncos last season...they blasted them. Ohio U won that game 59-14 despite having a yardage edge of only 150 yards. What happened was a turnover-filled first half for Western Michigan that led to a 45-0 deficit. Now it is payback time here and, keep in mind, that ugly loss featured the Broncos as the host. That said, they would love nothing more than to return the favor tonight by rolling the Bobcats at Athens, OH with the ESPN2 cameras rolling for this Tuesday night match-up. Statistically the Broncos are the better team on both sides of the ball and, though 0-4 SU and ATS on the season in road games, do you think the odds makers were unaware of that when they made them the favorite here! Don't be fooled by the line move here, the road team gets it done as the Bobcats drop to 2-8 ATS on the season with another loss here. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #136 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET - This is a game I had my eyes on since two weeks ago when the Spartans got hammered by 3 touchdowns at home against Penn State. Keep in mind, that is the only game that Michigan State has played since October 12th. Now, 4 weeks later, they are finally playing again as they have had two bye weeks in the past three weeks. This is exactly what the Spartans have needed as they most certainly have fresh legs here and they are ready to take out the frustration of three straight losses on what will prove to be an out-classed foe. Note that the Spartans lost to a "Murderers Row" of opponents as their last 3 games have come against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Now they face an Illinois team that is coming into this game over-valued. Lovie Smith is a weakness at head coach and they don't have the talent level (not even close) to match up with the big boys in the Big Ten. Yes, I know the Illini managed that miracle upset over the Badgers a few weeks back but upsets can and do happen. What matters most is the long-term results and the situational spots. That said, I expect the Spartans to destroy Illinois here and give them a dose of reality. The Illini come into this game with a 5-4 record but their other 4 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-29. Keep in mind the Spartans last 3 losses have come against teams with a combined record of 22-2 and the Badgers are probably the best 2-loss team in the nation by the way. That said, the rout is on here. With this line coming back to 14, after having risen above that, it is "go time" for me with a big play on the home team in this one! 10* MICHIGAN STATE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #137 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 3:30 ET - QB Jamie Newman returned for Wake Forest last week. He had missed the Florida State game with an injury. It is no coincidence that the game against the Seminoles ended up being the lowest scoring output (22) for the Demon Deacons this season. With Newman under center Wake Forest has averaged 40 points per game in his 7 games. That is the key edge here is that the Demon Deacons simply have too much offense for Virginia Tech to be able to keep up here. The Hokies beat the Hurricanes 42-35 earlier this season but they were outgained by over 200 yards in that game. It was a deceiving final score and they only gained 337 yards in that game! 42 points on 337 yards yes you can see just how deceiving that game was! The point is that the only other "big" games that Virginia Tech had on offense were against Rhode Island and Old Dominion. Note they only scored 31 points in regulation of their 6 OT win over UNC. So taking away the crazy Hurricanes game and games against an FCS school (RI) and a bad (1-8) Old Dominion team, let's look at what Virginia Tech has averaged in terms of points scored in regulation of their other 5 games...22.6 points per game. You can see why I am expecting the Hokies to be unable to keep up here. Demon Deacons in a road rout. 8* WAKE FOREST

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #175 Saturday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ 3:30 ET - I used UAB last week and they got embarrassed at Tennessee but it was a deceiving final score. The Blazers were only outgained by 65 yards but they lost 30-7 because they were done in by turnovers. The point is that UAB was hardly outgained by an SEC team on the road last week and yet now they're getting more than a TD back in action against a CUSA team. While the Golden Eagles do rank an edge here, albeit slight, in terms of offense note that the defensive edge lies with the Blazers in a big way. Southern Miss has allowed nearly 30 points per game this season while UAB ranks 5th in the nation in defense based on yardage allowed. Look for the Eagles to get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves. They got a big win against a win-less Rice team two weeks ago and then had a bye week last week. Before the big win over the Owls, Southern Miss had allowed an average of 35.7 points per game in their 6 preceding games. The better defense gives the Blazers a great shot at the upset here and certainly the points are a high value play the way I am forecasting this one! Blazers are ticked off after that loss to the Volunteers followed their bye week. 8* UAB

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #178 Saturday 8* Troy Trojans (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 3:30 ET - Great spot for a home dog. The Eagles were on the road last week and got the upset win at previously undefeated Appalachian State. Watch Georgia Southern now come out very flat this week after that huge upset in a weeknight televised game over a team that was 7-0. Certainly the Eagles deserve credit for pulling off the upset but the Mountaineers had 23 first downs compared to just 15 for Georgia Southern. Prior to that victory the Eagles only had one big win this season (41-7) but that came against a horrible New Mexico State team. Their other 3 wins came against Maine (an FCS school) by just a single score and South Alabama (2 OT) and Coastal Carolina (3 OT). In fact 3 of the Eagles last 4 wins have been by just 3 points so you can see why I like having the +3 on our side in this one. Troy is angry after a 1 point loss at Coastal Carolina that dropped them to a surprising 3-5 on the season. I like taking undervalued teams that are due to step up late in the season. The Trojans are off back to back road losses but this is a team that has scored 37 points or more in all 4 of its home games! While the Eagles have the better D, the Trojans are the much better O plus have home field here. Considering all that as well as the situational edge, there was no doubt for me here in terms of backing the home dog. 8* TROY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #345 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ UCLA Bruins @ 9 ET - The Bruins are playing better but they also have had some good fortune in the way the scheduling worked out recently and that helped them. UCLA has 3 wins this season and their first was the unforgettable 67-63 miracle comeback win at Washington State. However, their last two wins (they enter this game on a 2-game win streak) were helped by scheduling. They caught Stanford when the Cardinal were still celebrating their huge upset win of Washington as a double digit dog. Then the Bruins caught Arizona State last week after the Sun Devils had just played a very physical game against the Utes. It is never easy to play at Utah and ASU did that just prior to then facing UCLA. In other words, certainly the Bruins deserve some credit for their wins but there are some noteworthy aspects for sure. That said, I like backing Colorado now that they're getting a full +7 in this match-up. The Buffaloes have a knack for playing tight games as 5 of their last 7 games have been decided by 7 points or less. Colorado, other than when playing a vastly superior foe, tends to always be in their games because they have a dangerous offense. The match-up I like here is the Buffaloes #51 offense (yardage gained) facing a Bruins #114 defense (points allowed). The key is not just that match-up but the fact that the Buffs catch UCLA off B2B wins and that the Bruins were a small dog in each game. I could see UCLA being a little flat here after back to back upset wins and having a bye on deck. Bruins already thinking they could just coast into the bye. Note that the underdog is now 5-0 ATS in UCLA's last 5 games. Playing the underdog in Colorado games has produced a 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games. The Buffaloes covered as a double digit dog against USC last week. The Bruins are 3-8 ATS when off an ATS cover by a double digit margin. 10* COLORADO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #367 Saturday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ 7 ET - UAB has been a team on the rise under head coach Bill Clark. They won 2 games the year before he arrived and have since recorded seasons of 6 wins, 8 wins, and 11 wins in succession. Now the Blazers are already 6-1 this season plus enter this game off a bye week. That said, the set up here is perfect because they are catching Tennessee off a massive upset win over South Carolina. The Volunteers were a home dog in that game and yet won the game by a 20 point margin. Certainly it is important to note that UAB has played a very weak schedule this season and, as we all know, it is not easy for the schools from weaker conferences when they travel to take on an SEC foe. However, this does not change the fact that the Blazers have won 17 of their last 21 games and are a team loaded with confidence as a result. They full believe (and expect) that they can go into Knoxville, TN and walk out a winner. Now that is certainly easier said than done but with the line moving even higher here on the Vols, I have no hesitation in backing a very dangerous underdog. Tennessee is off back to back huge SEC games at Alabama and then hosting the Gamecocks for the upset. Also, the Volunteers have another SEC game (at Kentucky) on deck. The Vols are an ugly 2-11 ATS when they face a non-conference opponent off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Volunteers are 1-8 ATS as non-conference favorites of 11.5 points or more. Also, here are a pair of perfect angles in play here! Tennessee is 0-11 ATS when facing an opponent that is off B2B SU/ATS wins. Also, the Volunteers are 0-9 ATS when off a SU win by 14.5 points or more. That puts this one in a 20-0 ATS spot for backing the Blazers! 8* UAB

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #363 Saturday 8* Army Black Knights (+) @ Air Force Falcons @ 3:30 ET - Certainly Army is down this season after back to back very strong seasons. However, this is a rivalry game and this is simply too many points being offered to the Black Knights. Keep in mind, even though they have struggled at times (particularly on offense) this season Army is still allowing just 23 points per game on the season (compared to 22 for Air Force). Note that the home team has covered just 4 of the past 15 meetings between these teams. Also, even though the Black Knights are only 3-5 SU on the season, all five of Army's losses have come by a single digit margin. Now Air Force is being asked to cover more than two TD's against a team that hasn't lost a game by a double digit margin this season. I just don't see it. I know the Falcons have been playing very well but now in the past couple weeks they were at Hawaii and then also in a big home win versus Utah State last week. This will be their 8th straight week playing a game while Army had the benefit of a bye just a few weeks ago. The Falcons are just 2-7 ATS the last 9 times they have been a double digit favorite. The Black Knights are in their preferred dog role here and are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when they are a dog of 4.5 points or more and coming off B2B SU and ATS losses. That system is in play and goes to 7-0 Saturday. 8* ARMY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - Once again I am making a top side play that is contrarian to public opinion. This line was around a -2.5 on Michigan and now the Wolverines are the underdog in this match-up. Once again the public thinks there has been some kind of mistake here as, after all, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh so often loses the bigger games. Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds-makers. There is a REASON why the odds makers made the lower-ranked team the favorite. Yes Notre Dame is in the top ten while the Wolverines are barely hanging on in the top 25 but I like a couple key factors here. One is that this game is at Michigan and the host is 8-1 (both SU and ATS) in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Another key I like here is that the Wolverines have played the tougher schedule. Michigan got embarrassed at Wisconsin earlier this season but they've been a different team ever since and actually outgained the Nittany Lions by over 130 yards last week and had a huge 26-14 edge in first downs. The Wolverines didn't get what they deserved on the scoreboard at Penn State but they'll make up for that here at home. The only truly tough match-up for Notre Dame this season has been facing Georgia. The Irish lost that game. I know the Fighting Irish have the better offense in this match-up but the Wolverines have the better defense and the home field edge and Michigan is ready to make the most of what is their one and only home game out of a 6-week stretch from early Oct to mid-Nov. The Wolverines lost at Notre Dame by a TD in the season opener last year. That is noteworthy here as Michigan is 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they have been at home and playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning percentage of .899 or less. The Wolverines already rode their defense to a big home revenging win earlier this season when they held Iowa to just 3 points in avenging a loss in their prior meeting with the Hawkeyes. Look for payback here and take advantage of additional line value offered by the line move in this one. Notre Dame has had a very home-friendly schedule this season and now drops to 1-2 SU on the season away from home with losses to the Bulldogs and the Wolverines! 10* MICHIGAN

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #189 Saturday 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ Noon ET - QB N'Kosi Perry has been upgraded to probable for the Hurricanes in this one and is expected to get the start. He has completed 60% of his passes and has 7 TDs against just 1 INT since moving into the primary QB role this month. Miami is off a disappointing OT loss to Georgia Tech last week and, as a result, will bring their "A game" on the road at Pittsburgh this week. The Panthers are just 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Miami but are favored here due to being at home plus the Canes recent disappointment. That said, the result is great line value in a spot like this. Pittsburgh has won 4 straight games but they have not won 5 straight games in TEN years! Also, the Panthers 4 wins have all come by just a single score. Prior to being Syracuse by a TD last week, Pitt's 3 prior wins in this streak all came by 3 or less points. I see great value here with catching, as of early game day morning, +4.5 with the Hurricanes in this one. The Orange team that the Panthers beat last week by a TD is really down this season. Syracuse wins have come against Liberty, Holy Cross, and a MAC team. In other words, don't put too much stock into the Panthers beating Syracuse. Pitt's most recent home game is also quite telling as they won by just 3 points against Delaware! The Panthers were a 30 point favorite in that game and yet scored only 17 points! Now Pitt faces a tough Hurricanes defense off a disappointing loss. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh, 2 years ago, they entered the game 10-0 on the season but the Panthers upset them. The Canes got some payback with last year's home win but they still want to get it done AT Pittsburgh as well. They won't let this opportunity pass them by! Grab the handful of points here but we shouldn't need them. 8* MIAMI

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7:30 ET - With SMU off a blowout win over Temple and Houston off an unimpressive win against a bad UConn team, the markets are shaded heavily toward the Mustangs here. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the Cougars here! Give me the big points with the home dog as Houston is known for playing much better at home and also they get their QB back this week after he missed last week's game and the Cougars were down to #3 on the depth chart with Logan Holgorsen. Houston will have Clayton Tune back this week and I look for him to atone for his 3 INT performance in his most recent game as that was against a tough Cincinnati defense. Note that SMU has allowed an average of 30 points per game in their 3 road games this season! Also, the Mustangs are overvalued here because they have been a covering machine this season. The Cougars have done well in the big dog role and I fully expect that to continue here as you know Houston will be "up" for this game against an in-state conference foe that is undefeated on the season and also ranked in the top 25. This is a big game for the Cougars that they are relishing to have at home and with the ESPN cameras rolling! Houston is a perfect 4-0 ATS when off a SU road win in conference action. As a dog of +1.5 or more, the Cougars are 15-3-1 their last 19 games. More of the same expected here! SMU is 0-4 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin over a conference rival. Not only are the Mustangs off the big win over the Owls last week, they also have a huge game with Memphis on deck. 10* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #324 Saturday 8* Georgia State Panthers (+) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - The Panthers coaching staff includes personnel very familiar with the option. That gives Georgia State an added edge here that most teams don't have when facing Army. Additionally, the Black Knights offense has actually struggled this season and ranks #117 in the nation based on total yardage. Conversely, the Panthers offense ranks 19th in the nation based on total yardage. I am aware of the fact that Army has the much better ranking defense in this match-up. But again, the fact that the Black Knights are now running into a team whose coaches have experience in how to defense the option attack which Army employs certainly gives a bit of an edge there. Additionally, the way the Georgia State offense has been playing, I don't see Army being able to shut them down. The Panthers also have the home field edge here and have scored 31 or more points in 5 of their 6 games this season! This is just the 3rd home game of the season for Georgia State and, in the first two, they scored an average of 50 points per game! Last week's loss at Western Kentucky was the 3rd time this season that Army has been held to 14 points or less. The Black Knights have now lost back to back games SU and are also on an 0-3 ATS run. On the other hand, Georgia State is off back to back wins and covers. Momentum clearly in favor of the Panthers in this one and I'll grab the home dog as they stay hot. 8* GEORGIA STATE

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #390 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 4 ET - The Bears are 6-0 on the season and, for the first time under head coach Rhule, are ranked in the top 25. That said, the odds makers must have made some kind of mistake here, right? After all, how can the unranked Cowboys be favored over a Baylor team that has won 8 straight games dating back to last season? Exactly! Don't be fooled. It is no mistake. The odds makers know what they are doing. The Bears are off a tough game where they had to rally to force OT and ended up winning in double-OT over Texas Tech. Keep in mind, this was a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits so, in other words, quite unimpressive. Speaking of unimpressive, look at the Bears schedule this season! That said, they now face their toughest test of the season and I like an Oklahoma State team playing at home and that comes in rested off a bye week last week! The situation is set up perfect for the Cowboys to roll at home and their potent offense won't take their foot off the gas either. That's because last year the Bears took it to Oklahoma State and won the game 35-31. Now it is time for payback! The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 home games against Baylor. Also, note that the host has won 8 of the last 9 meetings between these teams SU. While the Bears are off a dramatic win last week, the Cowboys suffered a loss by 10 to the Red Raiders two weeks ago at Texas Tech. That was prior to the OSU bye. That is noteworthy here as Oklahoma State is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times in their first game after playing Texas Tech. Also, when playing with extra rest following a SU loss by a double digit margin, the Cowboys are 9-1 ATS! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #343 Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - Ideal set up for grabbing a huge underdog in what should actually be a very competitive game. Of course in comparing Iowa and Purdue, the Hawkeyes are the much better team and plus are at home for this one. However, the Boilermakers enter this game off a confidence-boosting 40-14 win over Maryland and they catch Iowa off very physical and emotionally draining losses at Michigan and versus Penn State the past two weeks. Of course the Hawkeyes want to get back into the win column and I certainly expect them to do that here. However, how much will they have left in the tank in terms of truly putting on a beatdown of a Big Ten rival that will certainly have no shortage of emotion for this game. This spread is around 18 and, keep in mind, the Hawkeyes have been held to scoring 18 points or less in 3 of their past 4 games. Also, Purdue is playing their 7th game of the season and they've only had 2 ugly losses this season. The Boilermakers other 2 losses were tight and, with last week's win over the Terrapins, they now have 2 SU wins this season as well. The visitor is actually 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams and the Boilermakers do have a history of playing well here. They made some changes to their O-line last week and their back-up QB had a huge game as a result. Iowa, of course, has a very tough defense, but this road dog has some confidence now and the Hawkeyes defensive energy is a little worn down after facing the Wolverines and Nittany Lions the past two weeks. 8* PURDUE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6:30 ET - The Owls got blasted at Marshall last season and are looking forward to revenge here at home. Florida Atlantic is lead by head coach Lane Kiffin and he is on a 13-6 ATS run in games against Conference USA opponents. The Thundering Herd have been trending the other direction as they have lost the money in 13 of their past 18 games! Marshall is off a non-covering win against a bad Old Dominion team and the Thundering Herd entered that game having scored an average of just 16.8 points per game in their 4 prior games. That has a lot to with QB Green not exactly "lighting it up" for the Thundering Herd. On the other hand, Owls QB Robison certainly has been strong this season for FAU. With a very manageable number at home I have no hesitation in laying the short number here. In Kiffin's first year on the job the Owls went 9-0 in conference action in 2017. However, in 2018 they went only 3-5 SU. Of those 5 SU losses, 3 of the opponents were to be faced by FAU again this season. Those 3 were Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. So far the Owls are 2-0 on the revenge tour with wins over the 49ers and Blue Raiders. Now it is time to make it a 3-0 revenge tour sweep by knocking off the Thundering Herd and I look for the Owls to do just that! 10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Thursday 8* UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (-) @ Arkansas State @ 7:30 ET - UL Lafayette is off a low-scoring loss but they faced a tough Appalachian State team. Now the Ragin Cajuns face the struggling defense of Arkansas State and I expect this one will turn into a road road. UL Lafayette entered their game against the Mountaineers having averaged nearly 550 yards and 45 points per game! Their offense will surely bounce back against a Red Wolves defense that has been hurt (literally) by injuries this season. Arkansas State has allowed averages of 45 points per game and over 600 yards a game the past month. The Ragin Cajuns are on a 7-1 ATS run (not including bowl game) in their last 8 games played away from home! The road warriors get the job done again Thursday as they bounce back off their first ATS loss of the season. Arkansas State is off a bye week which was preceded by them getting blasted 52-38 at Georgia State. The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS when they are a dog of 6.5 points or less and off a game in which they allowed 36 points or more. The Ragin Cajuns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. 8* UL LAFAYETTE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - I am aware of the injury issues for the Huskers and that includes QB Adrian Martinez and WR JD Speilman. My sources are indicating both will play at Minnesota tonight. If that would end up not happening, the fact is that I still expected Nebraska to get the cover here and they absolutely have a shot at the outright upset too. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 on the season but they are so vastly over-rated at this point. Minnesota has seen 4 of their 5 wins come by 7 points or less and, keep in mind, their schedule has been very weak. The Gophers have beaten South Dakota State (FCS School), Fresno State (2 OT), and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt school). Their two big ten wins came against Purdue (QB Sindelar HURT) and Illinois (one of worst Big Ten programs). Now Minnesota faces a Nebraska team that is 4-2 on the season and that blew a huge lead in an OT loss at Colorado and whose only other loss was against a Ohio State team that is one of the best teams in the nation this year on BOTH sides of the ball. That said, the Huskers are flying under the radar a bit heading into this contest. As for Minny, their 5-0 record has them a little over-hyped right now and I feel an upset is going to be the end result in this one Saturday night. If the Huskers fall short of that they'll still get the cover in my opinion. The Cornhuskers hammered Minnesota by 25 points last year and have won and covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Nebraska has covered 22 of their last 32 road games. If Martinez can't go or gives it a go and then must exit, note that Noah Vedral has a dozen games of experience and the back-up QB did lead the game winning drive last week. The Corhuskers lone loss (ATS and SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Golden Gophers was in their last visit to Minnesota. The Huskers got hammered in that one in 2017 and now it is payback time. 10* NEBRASKA

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #147 Saturday 8* Washington State Cougars (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 3:30 ET - I still feel Arizona State is over-rated. Yes they are off a win at Cal which preceded their bye week. However, the Golden Bears are looking less impressive as each week goes by. As for the Sun Devils, the last time they were at home they did lose to Colorado. They face a tougher challenge now in this home game and ASU's early season hype had a lot to do with a D that didn't allow many points in their first 3 games. However, Arizona State faced Kent State, Sacramento State and Michigan State. Of course the only tough opponent in that grouping was the Spartans and they put up over 400 yards of offense in the game but poor play-calling and turnovers led to Michigan State scoring just 7 points in the game. Now Arizona State faces a Washington State team that is also off a bye week but in a different frame of mind than the Sun Devils right now. That's because the Cougars got blasted at Utah prior to their bye. They can't wait to get on the field as that game was preceded by the insane 67-63 loss to UCLA that was at home for Washington State. The Cougars are in big-time "payback mode" here and ready to resume their early season winning. There is a reason this line was set the way it was (pick'em range) even though ASU is at home and the Cougars are off B2B losses. In other words, don't be fooled as the road team is the play in this one! 8* WASHINGTON STATE

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #178 Saturday 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - The Spartans offense and play-calling is horrible. That said, even though they have a respectable defense, they aren't going to be able to hang around in this game. Keep in mind, Michigan State is just 2-4 ATS on the season for a reason. They underachieve. They managed only 7 points in a loss to Arizona State and that was at home. In their most recent road game they did face a strong Ohio State team so is understandable they only scored 10 points there. But that game also was just last week. This is a horrible spot for the Spartans from a scheduling standpoint. They had to go toe to toe on the road last week with one of the best teams in the nation last week and then they follow it up by making a road trip the very next week to Wisconsin. It doesn't get much worse than that for a team that struggles to consistently score against strong teams. Note that the Spartans now face a rested Badgers team that has allowed an average of just 5.8 points per game on the season! I say "rested" because Wisconsin was able to rest guys last week thanks to a 48-0 plastering of Kent State! Also, the Badgers have been at home ever since their opening season road trip to South Florida in August! This scheduling situation is fantastic for Wisconsin and horrible for Michigan State and now we take advantage! Spartans on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. The Badgers have been at home in Madison the entire month of September and first two weeks of October. 8* WISCONSIN

Rickenbach CFB Rotation #172 Saturday 8* Houston Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - Once the Cougars had their #1 QB and WR redshirt for this season after 4 games, they were left for dead by most pundits. However, this Houston team has depth at both those positions and their first game after the announcements saw the Cougars knock off North Texas by 3 touchdowns. Since then they have had a bye week and now they host Cincinnati before a trip to face a bad Connecticut team next week. In other words, Houston is certainly focused and rested for this opportunity this week as a host against a ranked Bearcats team. The Cougars are catching Cincy at a good time to upset them as the Cats are off an upset win over Central Florida last week. Keep in mind that was the Bearcats first upset win over a ranked foe in 10 years! That emotional game could leave Cincy a little flat here but there is no doubt the Cougars are up for this game. Houston is off a bye week and playing their only home game in a 5-week stretch! Head coach Fickell for Cincy has failed to cover 9 of the last 12 times he was a favorite by 9.5 points or less. The Cougars have failed to cover only 4 times the last 20 regular season games in which they were an underdog. This one has upset written all over it and, if the Cougars do fall short, I expect it to be by just a field goal. 8* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #125 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET - Many will look at this game and say it is too many points to lay. After all, the last five regular season meetings have been decided by a TD or less. In typical contrarian fashion I am laying the points. The Longhorns have issues defending the pass and this weakness is made even more concerning by the fact that Texas has injuries in its defensive backfield as well. The Sooners have allowed an average of just 16 points per game their past 4 games. The Longhorns have allowed 30 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Sooners hammered the Horns in last year's Big 12 Championship Game and I am looking for more of the same here. These teams are close in the rankings and this is a neutral site game. That said, the odds makers are well aware of that and also very aware, of course, that the the recent history between these teams would suggest a tight game. Like I said, they knew all that and yet still opened this line up at double digits. They know what they're doing and so do we! Lay it! 8* OKLAHOMA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #102 Wednesday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (pick) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - This line is right around a "pick'em" even though the Mountaineers are undefeated this season and have also won each of their last 6 meetings with the Ragin' Cajuns. Long-time followers know how I feel about spots like this. I am going contrarian here. This line will be so attractive to those wanting to back Appalachian State for their SU winning streaks (this season and in this series) to continue. As usual I am going against the grain and backing the other side here. However, it certainly is not without plenty of logic. For one thing UL-Lafayette is not lacking for motivation as they lost in the regular season and in the Sun Belt playoff game versus the Mountaineers last season. Also, though both offenses are rolling early this season, the difference in this match-up is the way the defenses have been playing. While Appalachian State is allowing 420 yards per game, the Ragin' Cajuns have shown improvement on defense this season and are allowing only 345 yards per game. When entering a revenge game on a winning streak of 2 or more games SU (in this case 4 straight), Louisiana is 6-0 ATS! UL-Lafayette is also 9-1 ATS versus a conference opponents with a winning percentage of .667 or better. The Ragin' Cajuns are also 6-0 ATS in their game preceding facing Arkansas State. The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS when when facing an opponent with revenge that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. Plenty of support for a play on the home team here and keep in mind Appalachian State had a new coach this year as Scott Satterfield is now the head man at Louisville. The Ragin' Cajuns finally get over the hump against the Mountaineers. This is the year the streak snaps! 10* UL-LAFAYETTE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #359 Saturday 10* Rice Owls (+) @ UAB Blazers @ 7 ET - Rice is in their second season under head coach Mike Bloomgreen and they have turned into the type of scrappy underdog that no one wants to face. It is a slow process but he has made great strides this season thanks to it being his 2nd year with the program and the fact that the Owls returned players with a lot of playing experience from last season. Conversely, even though UAB is an 11-win team from last season, they lost as much (if not the most) playing experience from last season's team and this is out of 130 FBS teams in the nation. Of course this is why the Blazers (11 wins last season) are not an even heavier favorite against a Rice team that entered this season having only won a total of 3 games the past two seasons. I love looking for spots like this because the marketplace is simply behind the power curve in a situation like this and the Owls make for a dangerous dog in this spot. Rice does have a bye week on deck and the Blazers could be guilty of looking right past them and underestimating them. That is because UAB  blasted the Owls 42-0 last year and that game was at Rice. Remember what I said about the coach and about experience above? The fact is that Bloomgreen and his players remember all too well the embarrassment of that ugly home shutout in his first season as head coach last year. It is time for payback at UAB this year. Now I don't necessarily expect Rice to win this game outright but I do expect there is a chance of that as I see this game being decided by the margin of a single score as it will be tight all the way. 3 of the Owls 5 losses this season have been decided by 8 or less points. That means we've got great value here with the Owls available as a double digit dog. By the way, Rice has battled hard with Army, Baylor, and Louisiana Tech this season. Even their game against Wake Forest was much more competitive than the final score indicated. The only game in which the Owls truly got blown out was against Texas and the Blazers most certainly are not the Longhorns! 10* RICE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - The Hawkeyes are currently ranked higher than the Wolverines and yet the odds makers opened this game up closer to a 6 than a 3. However, many are anxious to back Iowa here because everyone remembers how Michigan got bullied at Wisconsin a few weeks ago. First off, the Wolverines were done in by turnovers in that game. Secondly, the game was at Madison. Thirdly, Iowa is not Wisconsin! In fact, one could easily question whether or not the Hawkeyes deserve the current lofty rating they have. Iowa has played a rather soft schedule and, in the only tough game, the Hawkeyes were very fortunate to defeat rival Iowa State. The Cyclones outgained Iowa by a significant margin in that game. Remember a few weeks ago there was an early line on this game and it was in the range of 2 TDs. The odds makers then opened this up closer to 1 TD this week because they knew how the markets would react after recent game results. Sure enough the market pushed it even closer down to a FG. That means we're only laying close to a FG that, only a few weeks ago, was considered 2 TDs better when hosting this opponent. I'll grab this every single time as Michigan has also heard plenty about being manhandled by the Badgers and they look to atone for that performance here. The Hawkeyes are leaving the state of Iowa for the first time this season and they aren't known for traveling overly well. As a road dog, the Hawkeyes are 3-6 ATS the past 3 seasons. The Wolverines are 14-1 SU the last 15 times they have been a home favorite and I have no hesitation in laying the small number in this one. 8* MICHIGAN

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #308 Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 8 ET - Last year both these teams were ranked and they matched up in a big game with ESPN Gameday cameras rolling late in the season and the Bearcats proceeded to get embarrassed in an ugly loss. Statistically the game was not so bad for Cincinnati but, on the scoreboard, they did lose by 25 points for a very ugly loss and now it is payback time. What most people are remembering about the Bearcats right now is how they got manhandled by Ohio State earlier this season. However, the Buckeyes have been demolishing anyone and everyone that has had the misfortune of having them on their schedule this season. The point is that UC's very ugly loss to Ohio State is actually helping to give us some value in this spot because this is still a Bearcats team that has gone 3-0 in its other games and allowed an average of only 13.7 points per game to teams not named the Buckeyes! As for UCF, they are 4-1 on the season but did lose their only true "test" of the season thus far and that was a road game at Pittsburgh. In my mind losing to the Panthers as a double digit favorite is even worse than the Bearcats getting blasted by one of the best teams in the nation. The Knights do have a bye on deck while the Cats do have Houston on deck. However, UC is actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the game before the Cougars the last 6 times. Payback time here. 10* CINCINNATI

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Thursday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) vs Temple Owls @ 8 ET - I am aware of plenty of technical data that supports the road favorite Owls in this one. However, from situational standpoint, the Pirates are the play here. I know East Carolina has been a bad team for a number of consecutive seasons now but there have signs of life in East Carolina again thanks to a new head coach and wins in 3 of their last 4 games. I know the Pirates have not played a tough schedule but playing at NC State was certainly tougher than any game Temple has played this season. So, the point is, the Owls haven't exactly played a tough schedule either. Their only road game also saw them installed as a double digit favorite and Temple lost the game outright by double digits. Also, the Owls have a big game coming up hosting Memphis. It would be easy for Temple to look right past the Pirates and be looking ahead to the Tigers. Conversely, there is no doubt that East Carolina is fully focused on this game. It is a home game on a weeknight with the ESPN cameras rolling and the Pirates seek revenge for an embarrassing loss at Temple last season. I do expect the Owls to find a way to win this game but I expect the margin to be just a single score. That said, I am grabbing the big value with the double digit home dog in this one that is showing improvement this season. With each win, their confidence is growing right along with their belief in the system the new coach has put into place. They ride the momentum again here. 10* EAST CAROLINA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #166 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are ranked and the Cowboys are unranked and yet Oklahoma State opened up as a sizable favorite here. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about odds maker "mistakes" and I love fading this false perception when it arises. In this case, I will fade Kansas State. I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats have a great long-term reputation in the underdog role but I don't see them as being able to score enough here to keep with the Cowboys in Stillwater. Note that Oklahoma State ranks in the top twenty in the nation for pace on offense as well as offensive efficiency. Especially with them being at home for this one I just don't see Kansas State keeping up on the scoreboard. The home team has gotten the SU win in 13 of the last 16 match-ups between these teams and, with this line at a -4, any OSU win is likely to be an ATS win as well! The Cowboys certainly want to make the most of this one as it is their only home game in a span of 5 weeks and, trust me, they are well aware of the fact. Also, Oklahoma State can't wait to get back on the field and erase the taste of a bitter defeat at the hands of the Longhorns in Texas last week. The Cowboys are catching Kansas State off an upset win in their most recent game (but Kansas State was not impressive statistically at Mississippi State). The Wildcats then had a bye week after beating the Bulldogs but now they run into a buzzsaw with the Cowboys angry off a loss plus playing this game with double revenge! Yes, the Cats actually won in 2017 at Stillwater too. Payback time here. The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 4-0 ATS when off a road loss. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

National TV Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #173 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - Many are looking for Notre Dame to bounce back after the loss at Georgia last week. However, that was a physical battle against one of the best teams in the country. It is not easy to turn around and face a quality opponent immediately after a game like that. Virginia is a ranked opponent and certainly a very dangerous double digit dog in a spot like this. Yes I know the Cavaliers are off a very sub-par performance against Old Dominion last week as they even trailed 17-0 at one point but clearly Virginia overlooked the Monarchs as they were looking ahead to this big game. What I particularly like about the Cavs here is they have piled up 18 sacks this season and are allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and they have a secondary led by star Bryce Hall. The Cavaliers will bring their "A game" in this one and that means the Fighting Irish are in for a dogfight in this match-up! Cavs head coach Mendenhall has never beaten Notre Dame (0-3 SU) in his career and he is a solid coach that will have a good game plan here to change that. Even if they fall short of the upset I expect this game to be decided by just a single score. Look for the Cavaliers to be in it all the way. Though the Irish rolled at home earlier in their only game as a host this season that came against a bad New Mexico team. Also, even with that win and cover over the Lobos, Notre Dame is just 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 points or more. The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. 8* VIRGINIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #116 Saturday 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET - What sticks out in the minds of many is that Boston College lost to Kansas this month. But the Eagles did bounce back from that defeat with a win over Rutgers and, as for the loss to the Jayhawks, the fact is Kansas is a little better this season with Les Miles now at the helm. Boston College enters this home game 3-1 on the young season and one of the victories was over Virginia Tech. That said, they are getting very little respect here from the markets considering they are at home and Chestnut Hill can be a tough team on visitors. I know Wake Forest has had some success here but the Demon Deacons enter this game over-rated because of their 4-0 SU start to the season. This is the 3rd time under head coach Clawson that WF has reached a 4-0 record but the 5th game each time previously has been the one that trips them up and I look for that to be the case again here. This is the first time Wake Forest has been a road favorite in an ACC game in 8 years and keep in, the Demon Deacons are on an 0-3 ATS run as an away favorite. You have to like the ATS runs for the Eagles here as they have excelled in ACC play (15-3) and as a dog (10-2) and particularly as a home dog (6-1). Wake's defense has struggled at times early this season (against Utah State and they gave up 21 points to a Rice team that annually struggles). That was their only road game thus far and now Wake Forest takes on a Boston College team playing its first home game since the embarrassing home loss to Kansas. You know the Eagles want to make up for that in this ACC match-up and I expect them to do just that! 8* BOSTON COLLEGE

Friday ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The Terrapins are improved this season but just how much better are they really? Maryland has played Howard, Syracuse and Temple. Howard is an FCS school. Syracuse lost their star QB among many other personnel losses coming into this season and they are just 2-2 with wins over Liberty and a MAC school. As for Temple, their football program continues to lack in continuity as they constantly change coaches. Anyway, the point is that just as many are questioning the Nittany Lions because of a rather soft early season schedule the same could be said of Maryland and here is what we do know. The Terrapins entered this year having had 4 straight losing seasons. Maryland has a combined record of 18-31 the past 4 seasons. Penn State is expected to regress some this season as they lost key players but this is still a team that entered this season having gone 31-9 the past 3 seasons. Yes they struggled with a scrappy Pitt team two weeks ago but that is the same Pittsburgh team that upset a ranked Central Florida team this past weekend. The Panthers can play. Now with the added edge of a bye week to prepare for this game (Terps had a bye too...I am aware of that) the Nittany Lions are likely to play their most complete game of the season. In comparing these teams PSU is the more talented team and to get them at less than a TD on the road here is a bargain. The reason for the low line is because the Terrapins have earned some style points with the market place because of big wins early this season. But now Maryland faces a Big Ten foe in their Big Ten opener and this is a foe that has beaten them by a combined 142-20 in the 3 meetings the past 3 seasons. This game will absolutely be much more competitive but I still expect the Nittany Lions to win this game by at least two touchdowns. The Terrapins are improving but they have a ways to go! Maryland is off a loss to Temple that preceded their bye week. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS when facing a team with winning percentage of .749 or less that is off a SU loss as a favorite. Keep in mind Maryland was favored by a touchdown in that Temple game and they lost outright. That Terrapins defeat was against the same Owls team that then preceded to get blasted by Buffalo in their next game. Of course that is the same Buffalo team that Penn State, after a lackluster first half, ended up blowing out 45 to 13 early this season. See where I am going with all these comparisons? Road rout time! 10* PENN STATE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - Navy won only 3 games last season and then returned only 4 starters on each side of the ball entering this season. Complicating matters in terms of this game, the Midshipmen have only played 2 games so far and both were against much weaker competition than what they are facing here. Navy has faced East Carolina and Holy Cross in their only two games so far this season. Now, after a bye week, the Midshipmen run into a "buzzsaw" called Memphis. The Tigers averaged 44 points per game the past two games. As for the defense, they returned 8 starters on that side of the ball this season. This could be their best team yet in Mike Norvell's 4 years with the program and remember they won 10 games back in 2017. Remember last year they were ahead 21-9 in the 4th quarter against Navy and then lost 22-21. This is a revenge game for them and also their AAC opener. Like Navy, Memphis is off a bye here. The Tigers are on an 8-1 ATS run in weekday action versus a conference opponent. Memphis is also 7-0 ATS when playing with rest. Navy has Air Force on deck and that is always a big game for them as they battle for the Commander in Chief Trophy. That said, it comes as no surprise that the Midshipmen are 2-5 ATS the past 7 times in their game that is played the week before facing the Falcons. Navy has lost 13 straight road games and I know this is a lot of points but the Tigers are strong enough on both sides of the ball to dominate this game and the revenge factor insures they will keep the pedal to the metal in this one. 10* MEMPHIS

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10 ET - Tough spot for ASU. I know on one hand they do have revenge against the Buffaloes since they lost to them last season. However, on the other hand, the Sun Devils are off an emotional come from behind win at Michigan State last week and they won the game in dramatic fashion. Give Arizona State credit for "finding a way" last week but also note that the Spartans play-calling on offense is horrific for a top tier Big Ten program that should have much better performance in that regard. Even with that, Michigan State still outgained ASU by nearly 200 yards. With Arizona State off an upset win and the Buffaloes off an upset loss at home, this one sets up well. Keep in mind, Colorado had beaten Nebraska the week before and that followed demolishing Colorado State in their season opener. The Buffaloes also have a bye week on deck and have a very dangerous offense that is going to test an ASU defense that is highly over-rated right now. Yes the Sun Devils have some great numbers on the season but I already mentioned Michigan State's horrible play-calling above and note that Arizona State's first two games were against Kent State and Sacramento State! The Sun Devils defense is going to be stretched out in this game like it hasn't been stretched yet this season and I expect the Buffaloes to give them trouble all game long. Look for Arizona State to drop to 6-12 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 10* COLORADO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #324 Saturday 8* Illinois Illini (+) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I know the Illini are not a very good football team but this is the perfect "flat spot" for fading Huskers and Nebraska has a penchant for underachieving in a spot like this. Note that the Cornhuskers are off a dominating home win over Northern Illinois. However, in their only challenging game this season they blew a big lead at Colorado and lost outright. Now, of course I am not saying that the Illni are on par with the Buffaloes (not at all) but I am saying I like having Illinois getting nearly two touchdowns with Nebraska coming off a big home win and with a huge home game versus Ohio State on deck! While the Cornhuskers were happy with their performance last week versus Northern Illinois, the Illini are coming off a very disappointing home loss to Eastern Michigan. Simply put, Illinois is in "response mode" here and they have averaged scoring 35 points per game this season. The Illini had allowed only 13 points per game in their first two games before their disappointing 34-31 loss to the Eagles. Look for the home dog to respond big here and the Cornhuskers get caught still celebrating last week's win over the Huskies plus looking forward to facing the Buckeyes next week. As a result, Nebraska is in an dogfight here and I expect the Illini to fall short by just a single score in this one. 8* ILLINOIS

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #320 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Pittsburgh is the kind of team that is very physical and likes to play "smash mouth" football and this is particularly true when you face them in their house. Yes, the Panthers are off a big game at Penn State last week but the positive they have going for them early this season is that Pitt has never left the state of PA. As for UCF, they are far away from home for this one and really aren't used to facing teams from Power 5 Conferences in back to back weeks. They hosted a Pac-12 foe (Stanford) last week and now face an ACC foe this week in Pittsburgh. The Panthers only have Delaware on deck and their fully focused on this game after getting blasted at Central Florida last season. By the way, the Panthers entered this season 7-1 ATS when playing with revenge against a team that is off a SU/ATS win the prior week. That system fits here as UCF blasted the Cardinal last week. The Golden Knights do have their AAC opener on deck and this is the first time this season they have to leave the state of Florida. Plus how good is this UCF team really? They've played Florida A & M, Florida Atlantic, and a normally strong Stanford team that truly seems to have fallen apart this season. Look for the scrappy home dog Panthers to keep this game much closer than many are expect. 8* PITTSBURGH

Conference Clash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 9 ET - With this line having dropped to a solid painted 7 across the board as of early Friday morning it is "go time" with Boise State in this one. Air Force is off a huge effort on the road at Colorado last week in an emotionally charged OT win over the Buffaloes. Now the Falcons are in the 2nd of B2B road games while Boise State is enjoying the comforts of home. The Broncos are enjoying an entire month at home actually as they haven't been on the road since their season opening win over the Seminoles down in Florida at the end of August. Boise State has a bye week on deck before traveling to UNLV for their first game of October. From a situational standpoint, this one favors the Broncos in a big way. Also, even though Air Force would like to get payback for losing at home to Boise State last season, the fact is that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge and are coming off consecutive SU (and ATS) wins. That is the case here and I like the fact that the Broncos return 7 starters on defense this season, are doing a great job against the run this season, and also have done a solid job against Air Force's option attack the past two seasons. The Falcons have covered just 2 of their past 7 Mountain West road openers. The Broncos, as a home favorite of 7 points or less, are 9-3 ATS! This one has definitely dropped into their sweet spot and I especially like this after oddsmakers had opened this one up at nearly a double digit line! 10* BOISE STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Tulane has a strong defensive line. However, the Cougars are well-coached (particularly on offense) and they also have a ton of talent at the skill positions. Houston will figure out ways to quickly get the ball in the hands of their play-makers and combat an aggressive Green Wave defensive line. Also, the Tulane secondary is where the weakness lies with their defense. That said, Houston will certainly test that as well. The Cougars are 1-2 SU on the season but the two losses were to Oklahoma and Washington State! Tulane is 2-1 SU on the season but their two wins were over FIU (CUSA school) and Missouri State (FCS school). Although the Green Wave did play (and lost) against Auburn, I feel the schedule has Houston as the more battle-tested team heading into this one. I also love the line move here. This one opened up as low as a 2.5 globally but is now up to as high as a 5.5 as of game day morning. I love the value with the road dog that possesses the stronger offense in this match-up. Keep in mind, Tulane's offense really sputtered it their only game against quality competition. I know the Cougars defense is an area of concern (again) this season but the Green Wave are getting a little too much respect here. Tulane is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they have entered a contest off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Houston is 7-0 ATS in the 1st of B2B road games and they are at North Texas next week. In addition to the combined 12-0 (100%) ATS mark I am happy to test here, note that the Cougars are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been on the road against Tulane. The Green Wave, when playing after a win by a margin of 21 or more points, are 1-5 ATS. Again, I am testing the aforementioned 12-0 combined ATS mark with a hungry road dog that should be in this game all the way and has a great shot at the upset. 10* HOUSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #194 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 8 ET - Nebraska is off an inexcusable loss at Colorado last week and that means they are going to come back home and put a beating on a foe that can't keep up. The Cornhuskers go from a road game against a Pac-12 team to now hosting a MAC team and this one is going to get ugly quick as Nebraska takes out the frustration of blowing a 17-0 lead against the Buffaloes last week. The Huskers have a lot to play for besides last week's loss too. Two years ago Nebraska hosted Northern Illinois and lost 21-17 as a double digit favorite. Of course that makes this a revenge spot for the Cornhuskers and note that the Huskies entered this season 0-5 ATS when they are off a non-conference game and now facing a team that is off a SU/ATS loss and playing with revenge. That is a 100% perfect situation that is in play here with the Huskers having revenge from the 2017 game plus coming off an outright upset loss at Colorado in OT last week. This is the final non-conference home game for Nebraska and they need a much better performance in their final tune-up before Big Ten action begins next week at Illinois. The Cornhuskers were unimpressive in their season opening win over South Alabama and then only played one good half at Colorado last week after that season-opening wake up call from the Jaguars. Now, after what happened last week with the OT loss to the Buffaloes, look for the Huskers to finally put it together for the full 60 minutes in this one. Prior to losing the last meeting by 4 points, the Huskers had beaten the Huskies by a combined 77 points in the two prior meetings! Remember Northern Illinois has a new head coach in Thomas Hammock and this is a 2nd straight road game for the Huskies. It is payback time and the Huskers are an angry bunch. The Huskies are walking right into a hornets nest in this one because the talent level disparity is too great and the home team is motivated by last week and by revenge. 10* NEBRASKA