Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #165 Saturday - 8* Kentucky Wildcats (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ Noon ET - The whole world is jumping on Tennessee here and that's not a surprise as the Volunteers have dominated long-term in their series with the Wildcats. However, Kentucky has gone from an 11 point dog to a 14 point dog in this one and that is opening up exceptional line value on the Cats. Keep in mind, these teams have faced very similar schedules in terms of strength of opponents and Kentucky had won 5 of 6 both SU and ATS before last week's tough loss to Georgia. Sure that was a tough defeat for the Wildcats to lose by just a field goal to the Bulldogs but do you really think they won't be fired up about an opportunity to resume their recent winning ways against a hated rival that always seems to have their number? Undoubtedly, Kentucky will bring their "A game" Saturday and they're facing a Vols team that just blasted an FCS team last week but that has lost three straight SEC games and also is on a 1-3 ATS run in SEC games. The Volunteers continue to be over-valued by the betting markets and Tennessee is on a 2-10 ATS run when they are home favorites of 8 points or more and facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Wildcats only have 2 losses by double digit margins this season and those were to SEC East leader Florida and SEC West leader Alabama. Tennessee only has 2 wins this season by more than 10 points and one was against FCS opponent Tennessee Tech last week and the other was by 21 points over Virginia Tech but the Hokies outgained the Vols by a 400 to 330 margin in that game! Don't be surprised if the Wildcats keep this game much closer than many are expecting. Statistically these teams are very similar this season and the Cats are highly motivated because of getting beaten badly by the Volunteers in recent years. 8* KENTUCKY Saturday 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #117 Friday - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - Against the ACC's top teams (Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville), the Eagles defense struggled. In their other 6 games this season, Boston College allowed an average of only 13.2 points per game. The Eagles D is viewing this Friday night game under the ESPN2 cameras as an opportunity to show that this unit can still get the job done against the better teams in the nation. Under coach Steve Addazio, Boston College has lost to the Seminoles all 3 years but no loss was by more than 14 points and the Eagles only lost by 3 points in their lone visit to Florida State since Addazio took over. Even though the BC offense is having another tough season, the Noles secondary and linebacking corps is simply not what it used to be. That's played a big role in Florida State's drop-off this season. The Seminoles once vaunted defense has allowed 450 yards or more in 5 of their last 7 games! The Eagles offense, with QB Patrick Towles further healed up from his hamstring problems, may surprise the Noles with some big plays downfield. Florida State is an ugly 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Eagles, under Addazio, have gone 7-3 ATS as a double digit dog. Also, BC is a long-term 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 17.5 to 21 points. FSU has been outgained in back to back weeks. The Seminoles did come from behind for the non-covering win at NC State last week but they are 6-11 ATS when off of a win in conference action and I expect another non-covering win here for the Noles. Florida State used a lot of energy up in their comeback win over the Wolfpack last week. It's been back to back grueling games for the Seminoles as they went toe to toe in a slugfest with Clemson the prior week as well. The Eagles are amped up for this weeknight "spotlight game" opportunity and will keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Thursday - 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 7:30 ET - Without a shadow of a doubt, the Blue Devils do want this game badly. They are winless in ACC action, this is their home finale, they need the W to have a shot at bowl eligibility, and this is the battle for the Victory Bell in this rivalry match-up. The problem for Duke is that that the Tar Heels also have plenty of motivation here and they are the far superior team with the much better (and much more experienced QB). North Carolina is a solid 7-2 on the season and still has hopes of an ACC title. UNC is led by QB Mitch Trubisky and the 6'3 junior has a 19-2 TD-INT ratio which is even more impressive when you take out the game played during poor conditions (Hurricane Matthew). Without that game included (horrible weather), Trubisky has thrown 19 TDs and ZERO picks on the season. His counterpart tonight is a redshirt freshman, 6'5 Daniel Jones, who has thrown for 6 TDs (but also 6 picks) in his last 5 games. Jones is a dual threat QB but on a beautiful night in Durham, NC tonight the key to the big winner here is going to be the team with the better passing game. The Blue Devils defense is known for giving up huge plays and the Tar Heels aerial attack will pick them apart for big plays all game long. North Carolina, other than the Hurricane Matthew game, has thrown for an average of 380.3 passing yards per game since mid-Sept. The Tar Heels have also averaged 207.3 yards per game on the ground their last 3 games. Their offense will tear apart the Blue Devils defense and Duke won't be able to keep up with UNC here. The Heels are on a 6-1 ATS run as a road favorite. Also, North Carolina has a long-term mark of 4-1 ATS when they are a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points so don't let the big number scare you here. Duke is only 1-3 SU and ATS in Thursday games. The Blue Devils have lost to the Tar Heels by a margin of 30 points per defeat the last two seasons and another loss by double digits is likely here as UNC's roll is simply too strong right now. 8* NORTH CAROLINA Thursday

12-0 MAC Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Wednesday - 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL @ 8 ET - Even though the Huskies have won 2 straight games they still have only 3 wins on the season and those victories came against teams that have a combined record of 2-14 in the MAC. As for Toledo, they are 7-2 on the season with the only two losses to BYU and Ohio U. and those teams are combined 12-7 on the season. Not only are the Rockets the superior team this season, this is also not a true home game for the Huskies since it's being played in Chicago. Regardless of the venue, the road team has covered 5 straight in the Toledo/Northern Illinois series and this is a major revenge spot for the Rockets since the Huskies have gotten the SU win in 6 straight meetings! Toledo has thrived away from home as they are on a 12-1 ATS run their last 13 away from the Glass Bowl. The Rockets also entered this season with a 6-1 ATS mark when playing with revenge and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or less. In weekday road games, Toledo is on a 7-0 ATS run after last Wednesday's easy cover at Akron. Combining that mark with the aforementioned 5-0 ATS mark in favor of the road team in the L5 Rockets/Huskies match-ups and that means a 12-0, 100% PERFECT ATS mark is being tested Wednesday night. With this number still available at -6.5 even with a potential line move upward it should still be well within range for an easy cover. 6 of the 7 Rockets wins this season have come by 14 points or more. 8* TOLEDO Wednesday

MW Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #380 Saturday - 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Utah State Aggies @ 10:15 ET - Wyoming was as high as a 7 point fave but has now dropped to a -4 as of gameday morning. The line move is completely understood as many are looking to fade the Cowboys off of their big upset win over Boise State. The reason that angle does not concern me is four fold. 1) Utah State is not a good football team. 2) Wyoming is home for a 2nd straight week. 3) The Cowboys win over the Broncos was not the pinnacle of their season as they still have their sites set on winning the Mountain Division. 4) Revenge is a huge motivating factor and Wyoming has lost each of their last 4 match-ups with Utah State by an average margin of 30 points per defeat! As you can see, despite the big win over Boise last week, there is no way Wyoming is going to come out flat for this game. On the "off chance" that they did however, I would still expect coach Craig Bohl to rally the troops at half-time and this line is very manageable. I just don't see the Cowboys losing at home here and being able to lay just 4 is a huge value. Utah State has only 3 wins this season and those came against an FCS school, a Sun Belt team, and Fresno State - the worst MW team in the conference. The Aggies are off of a 40-13 demolishing loss at San Diego State last week and Utah State has gone 1-6 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points and are then facing a team who is off of back to back SU wins. In this case, the red hot Cowboys have won 4 straight games and the roll should continue Saturday. Wyoming is 8-1 ATS when they are off of back to back SU wins and facing a conference opponent. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 3 points and playing in a revenge opportunity versus and opponent off of a SU loss by a double digit margin. 10* WYOMING

SEC Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #411 Saturday - 8* Alabama Crimson Tide (-) @ LSU Tigers @ 8 ET - The Tigers, as a sizable home dog here, are a very popular choice this week. Of course those who have followed me for years know I like to fade the masses and top ranked Alabama is one team that certainly is not going to fall apart just because they're playing a night game at LSU. The key to this selection is that there has been much talk about how well the Tigers have played since the Auburn loss and the subsequent firing of head coach Les Miles. However, LSU has played Missouri and Ole Miss in SEC action and those teams are a combined 1-8 in conference games this season! The other game was a non-conference game for LSU and they faced Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are a C-USA team that had lost to UTSA by 23 points the prior week. The point is that LSU's "big" 3-0 run sans Miles has come against very weak opposition. On the season as a whole, Alabama has played a much tougher schedule than LSU has and the Tigers are facing a team that is better than they are on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide have won 5 straight in this series and they covered 4 of those 5 games. Also, Bama entered this season with this interesting stat in tow. They are 12-2 ATS when they are on the road off of a straight-up win and they are facing an opponent who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. Lay the points while the masses are salivating at getting an over-rated LSU team as a home dog of a TD. The Tigers are a dog in this range for a reason and I smell a punishing road victory come in this one as it is Roll Tide Roll. 8* ALABAMA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CFB Game #346 Saturday - 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7 ET - Even though NC State is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings with FSU, the Wolfpack have lost each of the last three meetings by double digit margins. That said, NC State is definitely hungry and wants to make the most of this opportunity to exact revenge at home. The Wolfpack are certainly catching Florida State at the perfect time to do just that. The Seminoles are off of a hard-fought emotionally draining loss to Clemson last week. It is hard to imagine the Noles having a lot left in the tank (mentally and physically) after suffering their third loss in the last six weeks. The Seminoles just haven't been able to get over the hump this season and they now face a Wolfpack team that has "nothing to lose" and will "leave it all on the field" in this one. Assuredly, the Noles are going to get NC State's best effort and the Wolfpack thrive in home games that are projected to be higher scoring. NC State has gone 13-6 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. Also, the Wolfpack are hosting a Seminoles team that is 0-3 ATS the last 3 times when it is a road game that follows playing Clemson. Hitting the road after the emotional loss to the Tigers, look for that run to go to 0-4 ATS. This situation favors NC State as they are playing a 2nd straight home game, off of a loss, and they are allowing only 95 rushing yards per game at home. Florida State is on an 8-14 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* NC STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #402 Saturday - 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ Noon ET - Under head coach Kevin Sumlin, the Aggies typical late season fade at the betting window seems to be underway. Texas A & M has lost 4 straight games ATS as they head into a tough road match-up at Mississippi State. The Aggies last 3 seasons under Sumlin have seen them finish up on a 2-7 ATS run twice and a 1-6 ATS run once. That's a combined 5-20 ATS mark and this season, the Aggies are already on an 0-4 ATS run with four regular season games to go. As a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, Texas A & M is on a 1-6 ATS run the past 4 seasons combined. Both of these teams are strong on offense with question marks on defense. That said, I'll gladly grab the home dog that is getting double digits as the Aggies are still over-rated in my opinion. The Bulldogs are only 3-5 on the season but 4 of their 5 losses came by a TOTAL of just 13 points. Mississippi State is on an 8-4 ATS run as an underdog and they will turn this one into a dogfight in Starkville! The Bulldogs do have Alabama on deck but they know they need to win this to still have a shot at making a run at a bowl game and, surprisingly, they are on a 5-0 ATS run in games that are the week prior to facing the Crimson Tide. Look for that record to improve to 6-0 ATS Saturday. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Thursday - 8* Buffalo Bulls (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The Bobcats are playing with revenge here as they lost at Buffalo by 24 points last season even though they were a 3-point favorite. However, simply put, this line is over-inflated for this early evening Thursday match-up. From a situational perspective it is not a great spot for Ohio as they are off of a huge win last Thursday at Toledo. They won by 5 as a 15 point dog and that was the Bobcats first win at The Glass Bowl in 50 years! Needless to say that could leave the Bobcats a little flat early in this game. Also, Ohio U. continues to have big issues at the QB position and that means they have to rely heavily on their ground game in this one and just allow their young QB to try and be a game manager and not make mistakes. That said, this is not the type of game where the Bobcats are likely to be able to run up the score. Also, the Bulls are only 2-6 on the season but both wins came as double digit dogs. Buffalo has some extra confidence after last week's win at Akron as a 19.5 point dog. The Bulls got their ground game going again as they rushed for 378 yards. Look for a steady dose of running from both teams in this one and the result should be a much closer game than many are expecting. Keep in mind, the Bobcats have not won a game by more than 16 points all season and, in MAC games, their biggest win was 10 points and their average margin of victory has been 6.3 points. Ohio U is likely to get the win here but not the cover. The Bulls are a young team and also now in their 2nd year of new systems under their coach. Last week's win over the Zips was a sign that this team is starting to put it together and, keep in mind, their ugly loss at Northern Illinois was fueled by turnovers. In their five prior games, the Bulls turned the ball over a TOTAL of just 3 times. 8* BUFFALO BULLS Thursday

ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Wednesday - 8* Toledo Rockets (-) @ Akron Zips @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets are off of a rare loss and will respond huge Wednesday night. The Zips are off of a loss as well and also are excited about this home game opportunity on ESPN2. However, Akron is simply a mess right now. They've lost 2 of their last 3 games and have allowed an average of 330 rushing yards per game in those contests! That means Toledo should be able to run the ball at will in tonight's game and, of course, establishing the run allows a team to then have infinite possibilities to open up the playbook and attack through the air. The Rockets are averaging 347 passing yards per game this season so Akron's defense is in real trouble here. Toledo also is well known as road warriors. In games away from the Glass Bowl, the Rockets have gone 11-1 ATS their last 12! Toledo has straight up wins in 10 of their last 11 away from home! While the spread may seem sizable here, the Zips have been getting dominated statistically of late while the Rockets have been on the right end of the domination for much of this season. Also, Toledo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 weekday road games and 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge against a sub-.600 opponent. The Rockets last played the Zips in their season finale of 2013 and that game was at Akron. Toledo lost the game by 2 points and that remains the only year out of the past 6 seasons that the Rockets have not made a bowl game. Trust me, they have not forgotten. It is time for payback Wednesday night and Akron is on a 2-8 ATS run when they are off of a straight-up loss as a favorite. They were a big road fave at Buffalo last week and yet lost the game by 3 TD's. That is a sign of things to come in this one as another blowout looms. The combined ATS mark of those 3 streaks noted above is 20-3 ATS in favor of the road team in this one. I'll take it! 8* TOLEDO ROCKETS Wednesday

Tuesday Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #301 Tuesday - 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) @ Northern Illinois @ 8 ET - This line moved up from 15.5 to 17 and I completely understand the move as the Huskies are seeking revenge for December's loss to the Falcons. However, just because I understand the move doesn't mean I agree with it. Simply put, the points are too big here. Both teams are having tough seasons but the Falcons numbers really got skewed by horrible losses at Ohio State and Memphis. Bowling Green did get blown out in both of those games. However, in their other 6 games the Falcons allowed an average of 34.5 points per game while scoring an average of 26.3 points per game. They're facing a Northern Illinois team that is off of a blowout win over Buffalo. That 44-7 win over the Bulls is helping to give us an inflated line here. Prior to that game, the Huskies had allowed an average of 37.3 points per game and went 1-6 in those 7 games. You can see that Northern Illinois is truly nothing special this season and their defense has been just as bad as the Falcons defense. I don't see the Huskies as being able to create much of a margin in this game. These teams are very nearly equal and home field edge plus the revenge angle aren't enough of a factor to justify this huge line. Also, Bowling Green has a long-term mark of 19-9 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Northern Illinois is on a 5-9 ATS run in home games the past three seasons combined. The Huskies have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 home meetings with the Falcons. 8* BOWLING GREEN Tuesday

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #149 Saturday - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 8 ET - Though some of the "luster" has been taken off of this match-up because of the Seminoles having two losses on the season, it is still a big game. Certainly it is an important game to QB Deshaun Watson and the Tigers. Watson remembers his first game here (a loss in OT two years ago) and is seeking payback. Losses have been few and far between for Watson as the starting QB at Clemson and last year's home win over the Noles certainly was satisfying but a win at Tallahassee to make up for the last trip here is still a key goal for Watson and Company. The bye week helped them to get healthy too. Even though Florida State is also off of a bye week, the Noles are on an 0-4 ATS run when off of a bye week. Conversely, the Tigers are on a 3-1 ATS run when playing with two or more weeks of rest between games. Clemson is also 16-2 SU (and 12-6 ATS) in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Noles are a subpar 7-10 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Tigers hold an 8-3 ATS mark in the last 11 games against FSU and home field hasn't been an advantage at the betting window. In fact, the road team has gotten the cash in 4 straight meetings between these teams. The Noles pass defense has been a surprising weakness for Florida State this season and Watson will take advantage. The Tigers have averaged 300 passing yards per game in the last two meetings with the Seminoles and they also ran for over 200 yards in last year's game. Having RB Wayne Gallman back healthy (thanks to the bye week) is a big plus for Clemson this week. Look for the Tigers to roll on the road as Clemson is battle-tested and has proven they can come up big at crunch time. The same can truly not be said for FSU who got blasted at Louisville, had to have a huge rally to beat Ole Miss, and lost at home to UNC. 8* CLEMSON TIGERS Saturday

Contrarian Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #180 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I like to be a contrarian. The very first numbers that popped up on this game when the lines came out mid-day Sunday showed Ole Miss as a -1.5 favorite! Now, as of early Saturday morning, the line is all the way up to -5 on Auburn. That is a swing of nearly a full TD on this line. Of course I completely understand the move. The Tigers have been moving the ball extremely well on the ground and the Rebels have been struggling to stop the run. Also, Ole Miss has been known for 2nd half struggles so far this season while Auburn has been dominating teams of late. With all that said, every week is a new week and Ole Miss is now at home, in a must win spot, and they are catching Auburn off of an easy win that will have them overconfident. I would not be surprised to see the Rebels get the upset in Oxford Saturday evening but certainly am grabbing the generous points being offered. Ole Miss, before last week's poor effort on the road, had been 6-0 ATS when they were an underdog off of a SU loss. Though that streak suffered a loss last week, look for the Rebels to bounce back big at home. The defense of Mississippi is tired of hearing all about their shortcomings and not being able to stop the run. When you are at home, off of back to back road losses, and constantly being told about an inability to do something, you often will step up the very next change you get. Make no mistake about it, the Rebels at home are fired up for this game and the defense is going to be flying all over the field. I know Auburn has looked great of late. I won't deny that. However, the Tigers beat LSU before they fired Les Miles. They were struggling under Miles. Then, Auburn's other wins during this streak included beating a Sun Belt team (UL Monroe) and a Mississippi State team that is now 2-5 on the season. Yes, the Tigers flattened Arkansas last week but that is one game. The point is that Auburn's 4-game winning streak is impressive but has a couple of asterisks on it and I can guarantee you that Ole Miss is not going to "hand this game" to the Tigers! I look for the Rebels to play their best game of the season and this is a team that is averaging 37 points per game on the season. Also, Mississippi is on a 15-3 SU (and 13-5 ATS) run in home games. In games played on turf the Rebels are on a 37-18 ATS run. Look for the Tigers to drop to 1-9 ATS their last 10 in games the week before facing Vandy. Also, Auburn was 2-8 ATS in regular season non-home games before getting that road win and cover at Mississippi State three weeks ago. The point is that they are not exactly road warriors and yet they are being bet like they are this week. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side and I expect an upset but will take the generous points. 10* OLE MISS REBELS Saturday

Watch-n-Win Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #159 Saturday - 8* Baylor Bears (-) @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - This has become an intense rivalry in Texas as Baylor's football program has improved through the years. The Bears use to be the punching bag of the Longhorns but that all changed 6 years ago when Baylor went into Austin and beat the Horns in 2010. That began a 4-1 run in this series for Baylor but they then lost last year's match-up in Waco. Keep in mind that was one of just 3 homes losses the Bears have had since the 2011 season began! The point is that you can bet Baylor hasn't forgotten that defeat and the boxscore shows what happened. Despite a 479-307 yardage edge the Bears had, Baylor lost due to a 4-0 turnover deficit. Now Baylor heads into Austin this season with a 6-0 record on the season. I am well aware of the fact that the Longhorns (3-4 on the season) have played a tougher schedule this season. However, the Horns 3 wins came against team that have a combined 5-16 record on the season! Their 4 losses were to solid teams but not necessarily powerhouses. Texas has lost two games to teams that are now 5-2 on the season and two games to teams that are now 4-3 on the season. The Longhorn defense is a disaster this season and they're facing a Baylor team that is ranked among top teams in the country on BOTH sides of the ball. The road team has taken each of the last two meetings between these nearby rivals and I look for that trend to continue Saturday. Baylor has fresh legs (off of their bye week) and they've gone 6-1 SU with rest and only failed to cover in 2 of those 7 games. Also, the Bears entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark in games where they are favored by less  than 14 points against a sub-.500 opponent. You can tell by the O/U on this game that a lot of points are expected and I expect Texas to fail to keep up in this one. The Longhorns are 0-3 ATS in home games with a posted total of 70 points or more. The Bears offense will prove to be too much. 8* BAYLOR BEARS Saturday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #114 Friday - 8* South Florida Bulls (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7 ET - The Bulls got embarrassed at Temple last Friday. That 16 point defeat has the South Florida defense ready to respond in a huge way. With a bye week on deck for USF, they've had full focus and full energy into preparing for slowing down Navy's triple option attack. The Bulls were not successful in doing so last season but that was their first look. Now they get a shot at revenge and they get that opportunity at home where they made a huge run last season and they look to do the same this season. Keep in mind USF, in earning a bowl bid last season, rallied for a 7-1 finish last year (both SU and ATS) and that included a perfect 4-0 mark (both SU and ATS) at home. The Bulls were off to a 6-1 start this season before last week's ugly effort against the Owls. They will respond this week. This is a quality football team that had gone 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 regular season games prior to their inexcusable effort at Temple. The Bulls will have more intensity this week, will maintain gap coverage on defense, wrap up their tackles better, and have an all-around much stronger effort as they look to avenge last year's loss to Navy. Note that USF is on a 10-4 ATS run as a favorite (and went 13-1 SU in those games). With this line dipping down to 6.5 (was as high as 8.5) it is "go time" with this one. The Midshipmen have a huge game on deck with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish handed the Middies one of only two losses last season. Navy already got revenge (Houston) for their other loss last season and they certainly could get caught peeking ahead to the big match-up with ND next week while, as noted above, the Bulls have a bye on deck and are fully focused off of an ugly loss. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS 

PA Insider - Rickenbach CFB Game #108 Thursday - 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - Deservedly, the Hokies get a lot of positive press for their defense. However, if you look at their last 4 games, Virginia Tech has allowed at least 323 passing yards in 3 of the 4 games. The only exception was the game against North Carolina and that's because that game was played when Hurricane Matthew as pounding the area. In the other 3 games not impacted by weather, the Hokies have allowed an average of 363 passing yards per game. Of course, the Panthers are known for being a run-first team that likes to rely on the ground attack. However, Pittsburgh is off of their bye week and coach Pat Narduzzi is an excellent coach who has had extra time to prepare for this game. The Panthers will continue to "pound on the ground" but don't be surprise if they have the playbook on offense opened up a little bit more for this "must win" game in the ACC Coastal Division. Pittsburgh has averaged nearly 200 passing yards per game in their last 5 games. Also, on the ground, the Panthers have averaged 264.5 rushing yards per game their last 6 games. The last time Virginia Tech was off of a big win (34-3 over North Carolina covered spread by 28 points) they then got upset at Syracuse the very next week. The Hokies, when off of a win where they covered the spread by 14 points or more, are on a 2-8 ATS run. Off of their huge win (37-16 as a 4.5 point fave over Miami) last week, look for Virginia Tech to come up short this week. The Panthers are rested and off of a bye and the Hokies get caught still celebrating a big win that moved them into the Top 25. Teams often get knocked off after games like this and certainly an outright upset for Pitt would not surprise but I am grabbing the points here. The Hokies are on a 4-10 ATS run as a road favorite and Pittsburgh has dominated this series with an 8-1 ATS run. The Panthers are also on a 4-1 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. 8* PITTSBURGH Thursday Night

SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #399 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) @ LSU @ 9 ET - LSU is in a perfect "play against" spot here. The Tigers certainly have revenge on their minds as they lost badly at Ole Miss last year. However, LSU is simply overvalued in this spot. They have gone from being a 4 point favorite to laying more than a TD in this match-up and that is offering great value to the talented underdog in this match-up. There is a lot of chatter about how great LSU has played since they fired Les Miles after losing to Auburn. However, the Tigers have played only Missouri and Southern Miss since the dismissal of Miles. Missouri is 0-3 in SEC action and has one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Southern Miss is a CUSA team that, other than wins over an FCS school and a 1-6 UTEP team, has allowed 40 points per game in their other 5 games! Ole Miss certainly does not have a great defense but they have forced 7 turnovers in their past three games and the Rebels do have a dynamic offense. This combination has helped lead the way to a 3-2 run their last 5 games and the two losses each came by 5 points or less and one of those was to #1 ranked Alabama. The point is that the Rebels can hang with anybody and I am not convinced that LSU is "back" just because they beat up on two over-matched opponents. Ole Miss is on a 6-2 ATS run as an away dog and 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less. The Rebels are also a PERFECT 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog in a game following a SU loss. After losing to Arkansas last week, the Rebels get the job done this week. 10* OLE MISS

Bargain Hunter - Rickenbach CFB Game #385 Saturday - 8* Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ 7 ET - Western Kentucky has gotten the win and cover in each of the first two meetings between these teams - 2014 and 2015. However, both games were very tight to the number and both times the Hilltoppers truly were fortunate to get the cover. Look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the hungry Monarchs in this one. Old Dominion is off of their bye week and they had 3 straight wins prior to the bye. They are rested and confident as they piled up over 500 yards of offense in their win over UMass before the bye. The Monarchs are averaging 483 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and they catch Western Kentucky off of a grueling double-OT win over Middle Tennessee State. The Hilltoppers were outgained by 84 yards in that game. Western Kentucky has had a knack for tight games this season. The exceptions were a blowout win over Rice (but the Owls are the only remaining winless FBS team) and a blowout loss to Alabama (but they are #1 team in the country) and a blowout win over an FCS team. Of course Old Dominion doesn't fall into any of those categories and I expect another tight Hilltopper game decided by just a single possession. With Western Kentucky off of back to back emotional road games and the Monarchs are off of their bye and buoyed by the return of RB Ray Lawry in their most recent game, this one could be an upset. The Hilltoppers just do not have a solid defense and Lawry and fellow RB Jeremy Cox will keep pounding away on the ground while QB David Washington (12 TDs, only 2 INTs) keeps the defense honest. The Monarchs can put up points in a hurry and they are 4-1 ATS in road games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 8* OLD DOMINION 

Rickenbach CFB Game #326 Saturday - 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - TCU is not the team it used to be and a lot of that has to do with a defense that just isn't what it once was. The Horned Frogs are allowing 30 points per game this season and their D ranks 86th in the nation. The Mountaineers have flexed their muscles on D with a "bend but don't break" defense that has allowed only 19.4 points per game on the season. Last week, West Virginia was very impressive in holding a dangerous Texas Tech offense (one of the best in the nation) to only 379 yards in a dominating 48 to 17 win. While it may seem that the Mountaineers could be flat off such a big win, the fact is that this is West Virginia's only home game between October 1st and November 5th. In other words, they certainly are going to bring their strongest effort for this one and they also have revenge on their minds as the Mountaineers lost 40-10 at TCU last year and also were defeated by a single point here at home in 2014 when they last hosted the Horned Frogs. West Virginia is 7-3 SU and ATS when off of a win against a conference foe. TCU was outgained by a pathetic Kansas team last week by a 470 to 366 margin. The Horned Frogs only other road game was against a weak SMU team. Now facing their first tough road test of the season, TCU is likely to get blasted. 8* WEST VIRGINIA

Rickenbach CFB Game #333 Saturday - 8* Wisconsin Badgers -3.5 @ Iowa @ Noon ET - Even though the Badgers are off of a hard-fought OT loss versus Ohio State last week, they have their sights set on revenge here as they suffered a home loss to Iowa last season. The Hawkeyes are currently over-valued in my opinion as they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with Wisconsin. While the Badgers have played the likes of Michigan and the Buckeyes in their past two games (both teams are 6-0 on the season), Iowa has played much weaker Big Ten teams like Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue. The Hawkeyes are on a 6-12 ATS run in home games. The Badgers are on a 9-5 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin really got their offense going last week (450 yards) against a tough Ohio State team last week and the Badgers have one of the top defenses in the nation. Look for the road fave to get their revenge as the road team has won 5 straight games in this series. I expect 6 in a row after today's game is in the books. 8* WISCONSIN

Rickenbach CFB Game #337 Saturday - 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Louisville Cardinals @ Noon ET - The combination of the loss to Clemson and the bye week seemed to take the air out of the sails of this Cardinals team as they did not impress versus Duke last week. Louisville came nowhere close to covering in that game and they did not force a turnover. Even though the Cardinals only turned the ball over once versus the Blue Devils, the Cards had turned the ball over at least 3 times in 4 of their 5 prior games. That could be an issue here against an opportunistic Wolfpack defense that has forced 7 turnovers in their past two games. NC State is seeking revenge here for a home loss to Louisville last year. The Wolfpack have lost the two meetings by a combined total of 19 points the past two seasons and yet, with money pouring in on Louisville for this game, the spread is now up to 20 on this game. This is offering big dog value to an NC State team that is allowing only 18.7 points per game this season. That is nearly a full TD less than what Louisville is allowing on the season. Certainly the Cardinals are the better team here but, the point is, it may be tough for them to get a big margin in this game. NC State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games played on turf. Louisville has a road game at Virginia on deck which certainly may not seem like a big deal but they did lose their last trip to Virginia. That said, they may start peeking ahead to that road game as this one goes on and I don't expect this game to be decided by anything more than a 2 TD margin. The Cardinals are on a 2-6 ATS run as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* NC STATE

Early ESPN Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday - 8* South Florida Bulls (-) @ Temple Owls @ 7 ET - Even though the Bulls failed to cover versus Connecticut Saturday, it truly was a dominating effort as they outgained the Huskies by 151 yards in the 15 point win. South Florida hurt themselves with 4 turnovers but that was very unusual as they had averaged just 1 turnover per game in their first 6 games this season. In other words, one shouldn't expect a repeat of that this week for USF. However, as for Temple, they have struggled all season with turnovers. The Owls are off of a very fortunate win as they got the winning TD with just 1 tick left on the clock. Temple turned the ball over twice in that game at Central Florida, but the Owls had already turned the ball over 3 times in a game in 3 of their 6 prior games. It's been a recurring theme for the Owls this season and they face a USF team that has faced a tougher schedule than Temple has and yet the Bulls offense is still averaging 128 yards more per game than the Owls are. South Florida crushed the Owls by 21 at home last season and, even though they are now facing them at Temple, the Bulls can roll again behind a potent offense. The Owls are 6-1 ATS this season and they were 9-3 ATS in regular season games last year. That continues to make Temple a popular choice and effects their pricing in the markets and, in this case, with the Bulls currently laying 6.5 in this game, the price has come down low enough to absolutely warrant a solid investment in USF. South Florida is on a 13-0 SU run as a favorite and they are 10-3 ATS in those games including 5-1 ATS this season. As a road favorite the Bulls are on a 4-1 ATS run. As for Temple, the Owls are on a long-term run of 15-97 SU against teams with a winning record. If you think that is only ancient history it is truly not as even the last 3 seasons combined they are only 5-9 SU against teams with a winning record. Temple will again struggle with facing a better team (Bulls have also faced the tougher schedule this season) and when USF failed to cover against the Huskies last week it broke a streak of 12-0 ATS in their last 12 SU wins. In other words, when the Bulls win, they nearly always cover. Look for the win and cover for the road fave in this one. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA Friday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 THURSDAY - 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The Canes are on a 4-1 ATS run the last 5 years in match-ups with the Hokies. Of course that featured head coach Al Golden versus head coach Frank Beamer. But that offers perhaps even more value to this match-up in terms of backing the Hurricanes. Miami replaced a struggling Al Golden with a head coach, Mark Richt, who had a 145-51 record heading into this season. Virginia Tech replaced a future Hall of Famer with a head coach, Justin Fuente, who had a 26-23 record heading into this season. That is no disrespect to Fuente rather it is just to show the two different situations these guys walked into and, with both teams off of disappointing efforts last week, it is more likely that Richt's Hurricanes bounce back. Miami has lost back to back games and they have not lost three straight since 2014. As for the Hokies, they are trying to avoid back to back losses but that is something that has yet to happen this season but happened on multiple occasions in both 2015 and 2014. The point is that the odds certainly favor that is the Canes who bounce back here. These teams have faced similar schedules this season in terms of strength of schedule and both teams have been solid on defense with only 4.2 yards per play allowed so far this season. The difference is in the offensive efficiency as Miami is one of the top teams in the nation with 7 yards per play while Virginia Tech ranks in the lower half of team in the nation with their offense producing only 5.5 yards per play. The Hokies defense also was helped statistically because they recently played North Carolina in horrible weather conditions because of Hurricane Matthew. Note that in their other recent games, Virginia Tech was scorched for 561 overall yards at Syracuse and 362 passing yards at the hands of East Carolina. Other than the game against the Tar Heels (D helped by poor weather conditions), the Hokies defense has faced 3 respectable opponents this season. In those games (Syracuse, East Carolina, and Tennessee), Virginia Tech has allowed an average of 31 points per game! As for Miami, they are allowing an average of only 14 points per game this season and the Hurricanes have not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season. Also, there have been 6 outright upsets in the last 13 meetings between these teams but certainly I am grabbing the points although an outright win would not be a big surprise. The Hokies are on a 5-10 ATS run as a home favorite and this line has climbed up to very near a full touchdown. The Hurricanes are on a 6-2 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. The Hokies are on an 0-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. 8* MIAMI HURRICANES plus the points early Thursday evening

C-USA Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #170 Saturday - 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET Saturday - UTSA is over-rated right now and Rice is under-rated. As a result, there is solid line value here with the home dog. The Roadrunners are off of a big win over Southern Miss but it was a deceiving final score. UT-San Antonio beat the Golden Eagles by a 55-32 final score but gave up 557 yards in the game! The key was 3 Southern Miss turnovers and also that game was a home game for UTSA. Now the Roadrunners take to the road where they have lost both of their games this season and certainly they are not known for being road warriors. Overall, UTSA is on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite. Rice is off of a much needed bye week and they are playing this game with revenge. A loss to the Roadrunners last season cost the Owls a chance at a bowl game. Rice hasn't forgotten that and they, of course, have the added motivation of being one of just 2 FBS schools (Miami-OH is the other) that are winless on the season. Rice has played a much tougher schedule than UTSA has so far this season and that is a key to evaluating where these teams are really "at" right now. That said, the markets have a false read in my opinion. The line opened up around a pick'em and then went to UTSA -4. The Roadrunners simply aren't worthy of this line move. UT-San Antonio has allowed at least 445 yards per game in three straight games and Rice has won 3 of the 4 all-time meetings between these teams. Even though the Owls stats look very bad, they have played a much tougher schedule than UTSA and they are not only off of a bye, they also have an FCS school on deck so there will be no lookahead here. The Roadrunners have the full attention of the Owls. Rice is on an 8-3 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record and the Owls are also a perfect 3-0 ATS when off of a bye week. Look for the Roadrunners to drop to 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. UTSA simply does not travel well and they're going to have their hands full with an angry Owls team off of their bye week. 10* RICE OWLS Saturday evening

ACC Beatdown - Rickenbach CFB Game #140 Saturday - 8* Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 3:30 ET - Both of these teams are off of a loss but it is the Canes who are the team that is likely to bounce back huge. The limiting factor for the Tar Heels is a weak defense. Yes the numbers from last week look good for the North Carolina defense but that had to do with bad weather due to Hurricane Matthew pounding the area. Prior to that game UNC had given up at least 421 yards in 4 of their first 5 games. To put that in perspective in terms of Saturday's match-up, note that the Hurricanes have allowed an average of only 284 yards per game on the season. Miami (FL) has given up an average of only 12.8 points per game. The home team has covered 9 of the last 12 match-ups between these teams and Miami has revenge from an ugly loss at North Carolina last season. Miami is on a 9-3 run as a home favorite and also a perfect 3-0 ATS run when off of a SU loss. After last week's tight loss to Florida State, the Hurricanes need to respond with a W and the Canes head coach Richt has an incredible 90-45 (67%) ATS mark in SU wins. So if you like the Hurricanes to win here, the odds are you like them to cover as well. I also like the line move here as this line was up near 10 earlier this week and this line has now come down to a -6.5 as of Friday night. Great line value for the home favorite here. 8* MIAMI-FLORIDA Saturday afternoon

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 - Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 2:30 ET - The Redhawks are one of just two winless FBS schools remaining (Rice is the other) and this is the perfect spot for Miami-Ohio to get into the win column. Yes, they have injury issues at QB but even if Billy Bahl does not play look for them to fare just fine here on Saturday at home against Kent State. Keep in mind, last week it was a tough road start for a freshman QB but should Noah Wezensky get the start again, it will be his third game and he was much better at home two weeks ago then he was last week on the road. Miami-Ohio, statistically, has been just as good as Kent State this season but they Redhawks just don't have a win yet to show for it. The home team has won 5 of the 7 meetings between these teams but here we are getting line value because of the Redhawks 0-6 record on the season. Miami-Ohio is on a 14-9 ATS run as an underdog. Miami-Ohio also is on a 5-1 ATS run in their games against conference foes with a winning percentage of .333 or less and the Golden Flashes come into this game with a 2-4 record on the season. Look for the Redhawks to get revenge for last season's 20-14 loss at Kent State. Miami-Ohio almost rallied for the win in that road game but threw a late pick in the end zone with about a minute to go in the game. The Redhawks net yards per game this season is only -3.3 and they certainly deserve much better than an 0-6 mark on the season. They will take advantage of a Kent State team that has one of the worst offenses in the nation (ranked #122 for yards per game). 8* MIAMI-OHIO Saturday afternoon

ESPN2 Smash Pass Wednesday - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 - 8* Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) @ UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ 8 ET - This line opened up at a 10.5 and got bumped up to a 12 in the early activity on Sunday evening and then has since dropped to a 9.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The original line and movement was correct in my opinion. The Mountaineers should blast the Ragin' Cajuns. UL Lafayette has major issues. They're not getting consistent QB play and they brought in a number of junior college transfers in the off-season (hasn't worked out well) and then fired their defensive coordinator after the first game of the season. The fact is that this is a program in disarray as head coach Mark Hudspeth doesn't have a good handle on his own team and his own coaching staff. They will be no match for what is arguably the top team in the Sun Belt Conference as they try to trade blows with Appalachian State on Wednesday night. The Mountaineers are an experienced team and a physical team that can bully a team like UL Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns fell to 4-8 last year and it just seems that Hudspeth and company have lost control of this program and they are going to continue heading the wrong direction. On the other side you have a Mountaineers team that went from 4 wins to 7 wins to 11 wins the past three seasons! Even though Appalachian State is only 3-2 this season, that is because they played SEC foe Tennessee and ACC foe Miami in non-conference action. Those are big programs for a Sun Belt team to face but Mountaineers head coach Scott Satterfield is building the program at Appalachian State and he knows that facing teams like that is all part of the equation. In their conference opener, the Mountaineers dominated Georgia State and held them to 241 total yards of offense while forcing 4 turnovers. Appalachian State has defeated the Ragin' Cajuns by at least 19 points in each of their two meetings the past two seasons and I feel the point spread here is indeed at least a touchdown less than it should be. The Mountaineers have not turned the ball over more than once in a game this season. UL Lafayette has 8 turnovers in their last 3 games. The Ragin' Cajuns also have gone 1-4 ATS as home dogs when they are facing a team who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. The Mountaineers beat Georgia State by 14 earlier this month and they can blast UL Lafayette by more than that here. As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points the Ragin' Cajuns have gone 0-2 ATS. As  road favorite, Appalachian State has gone 5-2 ATS and this is their first ever Wednesday game and the Mountaineers will go "all out" as they know they are in the spotlight with a rare weeknight game on ESPN2 where it is the only football game on TV (unlike typical Thursdays and Fridays). 8* APPALACHIAN STATE

SEC Bulldog Insider - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #419 - 8* Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 2:30 ET Sunday - I have had a lot of success with the Bulldogs through the years and know the program quite well. Though Georgia is off of a heartbreaking last-second "hail mary" defeat versus Tennessee last week, they are ready to respond. Remember we saw similar circumstances earlier this season when Oklahoma State was off of a devastating defeat to Central Michigan on a "hail mary" play that shouldn't have even been able to happen - no time left and officials made a mistake. The Cowboys responded the next week by defeating Pittsburgh. Even though that win ended up coming by only a TD Okie State had multiple big leads throughout that game and definitely came ready to play. This is the type of effort I expect from Georgia today who has had extra time (with this game being rescheduled to Sunday) to be fully prepared mentally as they look to erase the bitter taste of last week's tough defeat. Georgia is now off of back to back losses and they are 18-2 SU (and 15-5 ATS) the last 20 times they entered a game off of two or more consecutive defeats. South Carolina is getting a few guys back this week that could help the offense but their overall production is just not there. They are still short of playmakers on offense and have produced some of the worst production on offense in the nation so far this year. Georgia is averaging more than 100 yards more per game on offense than are the Gamecocks. Also, South Carolina got drilled by the Bulldogs 52-20 last year and, after having just 1 carry last week, Georgia RB Nick Chubb is listed as probable for this game and I expect him to do plenty of damage here against a South Carolina defense that is allowing more than 200 rushing yards per game. As a fave of 3.5 to 10 points, the Bulldogs have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Both teams are in "must win" mode but the road team is the much stronger and more balanced team. Also, Gamecocks head coach Will Muschamp went 1-3 against Georgia (his alma mater) when he was head coach of the Gators. Once against the Bulldogs get the best of Muschamp here. 8* GEORGIA early Sunday afternoon

Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #339 -10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET Saturday - Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to play and that's why this line is where it is because, the fact is, the Red Raiders are the better team in this match-up. The key then becomes what happens when the back-up QB comes in for Texas Tech? Though it was "only" Kansas last week, junior QB transfer (from Iowa) Nic Shimonek came in and ran the offense very well and threw 4 TD passes. Shimonek is known as one of the hardest working players on the team and he has been learning Kliff Kingsbury's offense ever since he came over from the Hawkeyes. Shimonek has good size at 6'3 220 lbs and he made good throws and quick reads. He also is full of confidence and has worked very hard to be ready for when he's needed. With many of the quick, shorter passes that are a part of the Red Raiders offense, it is not as difficult to "step in" as a back-up QB and get the job done although Shimonek certainly has the arm and the accuracy for the longer routes as well. Shimonek already got some solid work in back in week one of this season and last week's experience versus the Jayhawks also helps him to prepared for taking on Kansas State here. The Wildcats are only averaging 346 5 yards per game this season and this is nothing new as they averaged only 333.7 yards per game to rank as one of the worst offenses in the nation. While I do respect their defense, Kansas State was ripped apart for 59 points by the Texas Tech offense last season and they also were heading into that game off of a loss as well. That said, the fact that the Wildcats are off of a tough tight loss at West Virginia doesn't truly strengthen their position here. In fact, when Kansas State is home off of a straight-up loss and facing an opponent off of a win by a double digit margin, the Wildcats have gone 0-4 ATS. Also, Texas Tech is on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog and their offense (both based on yardage and points per game) is #1 in the nation in both key categories. The Wildcats just don't have the firepower to keep up here and their defense was exposed last season frequently by teams with high-powered offenses. The Cats allowed 36.9 points per game in their final 11 games last season. That is significant in looking at this match-up because Kansas State never scored more than 45 points in a game last season. This season the Wildcats put up big points on poor teams like Florida Atlantic and Missouri State but they averaged only 14.5 points in their other two games. The Wilcats were outgained by a margin of 422 to 286 last week at West Virginia and the numbers are likely to be even more skewed this week. That has me backing the big dog here that absolutely has a great shot at an outright upset win on the road. The Red Raiders are averaging 664 yards of offense per game this season and though their defense is always a liability, they have some confidence with last week's strong performance and, again, the Wildcats just don't have the offense to take advantage. In their two games that weren't against "cupcake opponents" Kansas State has only completed 29 of 71 passes this season! 10* Top Play TEXAS TECH Saturday 

Ugly Dog - Rickenbach CFB Game #345 - 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Taking advantage of line value here as Illinois opened up right around a 7 point favorite and then has moved up to being a double digit favorite. I just don't see it with the Illini. Sure Purdue is really no better but that is what you have here. Two bad Big Ten teams matched up so the only difference one could really see as value would be home field but that hasn't held true in this series. The road team has actually gotten the win in each of the last four meetings. Couple that with the fact that the Boilermakers have revenge from a bad home loss to Illinois last year and you have the makings of a truly dangerous "ugly dog" here. Purdue has plenty of motivation and is also coming off of an ugly loss at Maryland. Conversely, the Illini are coming off of a more respectable showing than many expected at Nebraska last week as they only lost by 15 points. However, Illinois was dominated statistically as they were outgained by over 150 yards in the game and the Cornhuskers had more than double the first downs that Illinois compiled. The Illini are on a long-term 15-24 ATS run as a home favorite while the Boilermakers are on an 11-6 ATS run as a road dog. Illinois is an ugly 2-13 ATS when they are off of back to back SU losses and facing a team that is coming off of a SU loss by double digits! That is precisely the case here with the Boilermakers off of that 50-7 loss to the Terrapins last week. Even with the loss last week Purdue is still on an 8-1 ATS run their last 9 games as a double digit dog. Grab the big points with the road dog Boilermakers here. 8* PURDUE Saturday afternoon

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #332 - 8* Connecticut Huskies (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 11:30 AM ET Saturday - Depending on when and where they were played, the Huskies have delivered as bad as an ugly 0-5 ATS mark this season for their backers. This is helping to give us solid line value here with Connecticut as a 3-point home dog. The Huskies want this game badly as, not since the days of Randy Edsall roaming the sidelines have the Huskies managed to knock off Cincinnati. Each of the last five years UConn has lost to the Bearcats and, after facing the new fast-paced attack of Syracuse and then the powerhouse attack of offensive juggernaut, Houston, the Huskies will be glad to face an offense that is struggling. Cincy can't settle down at the QB position as regular #1 Hayden Moore has been out with an injury and the Bearcats have now waffled between a young QB (Trail) and a veteran QB (Gunner Kiel) who was outplayed by Hayden Moore. The result has been very inconsistent offense from the Bearcats and, in fact, they are now on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Also, the home team in the match-ups between these two teams is 8-3 ATS even though Cincy has gotten the SU win in five straight match-ups. The Huskies have thrived as a home dog (22-9 ATS) and in their most recent conference home game they upset Houston - the Cougars only loss last season! The Huskies have a rest edge with two extra days off since they last played on Thursday. The Bearcats are on a 2-4 ATS run when they are off of a loss in conference action. As a home dog of 3 points or less the Huskies are on a 7-3 ATS run and this has the makings of an upset as Cincinnati's poor play at the QB position continues to plague them. 8* CONNECTICUT very early Saturday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:30 ET Friday - Clemson is one of the top teams in the country and I have all the respect in the world for this team. That said, the fact is that the Tigers are in a very tough spot here and I like the line value we are seeing in this one. This line opened up around a 16 but is now as high as an 18 as of gameday morning and Clemson is known for having some struggles at times when they visit Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. The Tigers are off of a key victory in their huge game with Louisville last week but it didn't come easy. Not only did Clemson get outgained by the Cardinals but, also the Tigers had to rally for the win after they gave up a 26-0 run to Louisville after halftime. That game was an emotional come from behind win for Clemson in a marquee game Saturday and now the Tigers are on the road on a short week. In the last 7 meetings between these teams the road team has gotten the cash only 2 times. Clemson has won 3 of their last 5 trips to Chestnut Hill but 2 of the 3 wins came by 6 points or less. Overall, the Tigers are on an ugly 3-7 ATS run as a road favorite. As for Boston College, they come into this game off of a much easier contest compared to the exhausting battle Clemson just had with Louisville. The Eagles just knocked off Buffalo by a 35-3 count with a ridiculous yardage edge of 400 to 67 over the Bulls. Boston College has a bye week on deck which is also a big edge as Clemson is truly in a sandwich spot after the big win over the Cardinals and with NC State on deck for next Saturday's homecoming game. Once again this season the Eagles have a rock solid defense and the offense is improving as 6'5" QB Patrick Towles (a graduate transfer from Kentucky) has gotten more comfortable with the Eagles. Clemson is on an 1-4 ATS run in games played on turf. BC is on a 3-0 ATS run as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Look for the Eagles to give the Tigers a tough battle in this one as the situational edges are big for the home team here. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday 

ESPN2 Smash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #302 - 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 8 PM ET Wednesday - On the surface this looks like a complete mismatch as the Eagles are 3-1 on the season while the Red Wolves are 0-4 both SU and ATS. However, Arkansas State has played a much tougher schedule than the Eagles have. Also, this is the Red Wolves conference opener so they are fully aware of the fact that the season is certainly not lost! As for Georgia Southern, even though they are 2-0 in Sun Belt action already, those two victories came over two of the weaker teams in the conference as the Eagles beat South Alabama and Louisiana Monroe who were a combined 7-18 last year. Arkansas State is certainly off to an ugly start this season but they also got off to a poor start last year, 1-3, and then won 8 in a row to wrap up the regular season! The Red Wolves were projected to again be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt Conference and their comeback, in my opinion, starts Wednesday. The line opened up at a -7 for Georgia Southern here and has already moved to a 7.5 in most spots. With the ability to get Arkansas State as a home dog of more than a TD, it definitely is "go time" for me in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that the Red Wolves just lost to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, in their most recent game but the Bears are actually playing quite well this season and are one of the better teams in their conference. Arkansas State did put up 469 yards against Central Arkansas but they did themselves in with turnovers. The Red Wolves will respond this week and they are 13-3 SU (and 11-5 ATS) in their conference games the past two seasons. The past two seasons Arkansas State has also gone 5-2 SU and ATS in their 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Red Wolves are off of a bye week and they are 8-1 ATS when playing with rest and facing a Sun Belt foe. 8* ARKANSAS STATE Wednesday

Best Bet Shocker - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - 8* USC Trojans (-) vs Arizona State @ 8:30 ET Saturday - You may be surprised to see me calling a fave a shocker but what I mean by this here is that USC is only 1-3 on the season and Arizona State is 4-0 but the "shock value" is here. The surprise is not just that the 1-3 Trojans are favored by double digits over the Sun Devils but the fact that they should easily cover it! USC has played a much tougher schedule by far as Arizona State's schedule has included Northern Arizona and UTSA! The Sun Devils barely got by the Roadrunners as the 4 point win was certainly not impressive. In Arizona State's other two games against FBS foes their defense was ripped for over 600 yards in each game and they allowed an average of 48 points per game! USC is off of a tough loss at Utah last Friday where they gave up a pair of late scores after appearing to be in command of that game. Now they get a chance to redeem themselves against a lesser foe after having faced tough teams like Alabama and Stanford already this season. The Trojans blasted the Sun Devils 42-14 at Arizona State last year but USC still has a measure of revenge here as well. That's because the last time Southern Cal hosted ASU they gave up 3 late TD's in the final 4 minutes (including a Hail Mary on the last play of the game) to lose by 4 points. USC hasn't forgotten about that happening on their home field. The Trojans are on a 7-0 ATS run in regular season action in games where they are off of a game where they allowed 31 points or more. After allowing 31 to Utah last week, Southern Cal bounces back (as usual) this week! 8* USC Saturday night

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #164 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET Saturday - Clemson was as high as a 3.5 point favorite when this line came out but they now have moved all the way to being a 2 point dog. This is huge movement and has created significant value that certainly shouldn't be shrugged off. The key here is that everyone saw the Cardinals annihilate Florida State on national TV and that has resulted in an inflated perception about Louisville. Certainly the Cardinals should receive their "just due" but the public is a little enamored with them right now. Keep in mind Louisville's other 3 games came against Charlotte, Syracuse, and Marshall. The Thundering Herd didn't even have their starting QB and also returned only 4 starters on defense this season. As for Syracuse and Charlotte, they both rank near the bottom of FBS schools. The point is that Louisville had a great game plan and executed extremely well against the Seminoles but one game should not define an entire team's season and, in this case, the Cards are now on the road and facing a very tough foe. Clemson has won both of the ACC meetings between these schools and also has a rest edge since the Tigers had a Thursday game last week. Clemson dominated the Yellow Jackets and also looked much stronger against Auburn in week one than what the final score (19-13) would lead you to believe. The Tigers only have Boston College on deck and Clemson has gone 6-1 ATS in their game the week before BC as certainly Clemson knows they can leave it all on the field when it's only the Eagles on deck! The Cardinals win over the Noles is keying the value here and keep in mind, FSU has now allowed 34 points or more in all 3 of their games against FBS schools this season. Is the fact that Louisville ripped Florida State as impressive as it originally seemed? I say absolutely not and I say the Cardinals are going to have trouble with a Clemson defense that is allowing only 11 points per game and the Tigers have the veteran leader at QB in this match-up too of course. Look for Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney to take it to Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino a third straight time. 8* CLEMSON Saturday night

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #126 - 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET Saturday - This line dropped from a 3.5 to a 2.5 Friday and  that makes 3 a "win number" for West Virginia which is a great value here. I am well aware of the fact that Bill Snyder is one helluva coach and that Kansas State has defeated the Mountaineers each of the last four seasons. However, last year West Virginia outgained the Wildcats 447 to 304 and yet lost the game by a single point. The Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 of 31 through the air. In the last meeting here, in 2014, West Virginia held the Wildcats to a net of ONE rushing yard on 29 carries yet the Mountaineers still fell just short on the scoreboard. Overall, West Virginia has held the first down edge by 49 to 33 in the last two meetings and yet they lost both games on the scoreboard. The point is that coach Snyder hasn't exactly outsmarted Dana Holgorsen in these last two meetings. It's just been a pair of tough, tight losses for West Virginia despite having some key edges. With that said, this is a quadruple revenge spot for the Mountaineers and they are catching K-State at the ideal time. The Wildcats haven't played a tough opponent in a month and that was a double digit loss at Stanford. That was followed by a bye week for the Cats and then easy match-ups with Florida Atlantic and Missouri State! Look for the Wildcats to have trouble adjusting early on as they finally step back on the field with a formidable foe for the first time in 30 days! The Mountaineers are undefeated on the season and got a hard-fought win over BYU last week that will serve them well for facing a well-coached Kansas State team this week. There is only "so much" that coaching can do for a team and the Wildcats are on a 3-7 skid in Big 12 games their last 10 with an average margin of defeat of 15 points in those 7 losses! West Virginia is on a 5-2 ATS run at Mountaineer Field when they are a home favorite. 10* WEST VIRGINIA Saturday afternoon.

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #157 - 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) @ Georgia Tech @ Noon ET Saturday - We are laying right around a 7 in this game but the set-up is truly ideal for a road rout. Even though the Hurricanes have played an easy schedule thusfar it certainly has helped them to build up confidence under new head coach Mark Richt. The former Georgia coach is, of course, very familiar with the Yellow Jackets and their option attack because the Bulldogs frequently faced Georgia Tech and head coach Paul Johnson. That, in and of itself, is a big edge for Richt but also note that the Hurricanes are off of a bye week AND they faced an option attack, Appalachian State, before the bye. The Canes are catching the Jackets at a good time as GT is still licking their wounds after the absolute beating they took against Clemson last Thursday. Georgia Tech was fortunate to beat Boston College earlier this season and only scored 17 points in that game and just 7 against Clemson last week. Overall the Yellow Jackets are on an ugly 2-11 ATS run and Richt is known for his ATS success in victories. When his team wins, he covers at a 67% rate - 90-45 ATS! Look for the Canes to get the win and look for another Richt cover in the victory! The Hurricanes add to their 6-1 ATS run in games against Georgia Tech. 8* MIAMI early Saturday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #110 - 8* Washington Huskies (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET Friday - The Cardinal are off of a ridiculous cover against UCLA Saturday as Stanford (-3) actually trailed 13-9 late in the game but they got a TD for a 3 point lead with just 24 seconds to go and then got a fumble return for a TD on the last play of the game to win by 9 points. The shocking cover for the Cardinal means that they are now 3-0 both SU and ATS this season and that is helping to create some line value this week. We can get Washington laying just a field goal at home in this one and the Huskies are 4-0 SU but only 2-2 ATS after Saturday's win in overtime over Arizona. Washington may have got caught peeking ahead to this game but they did have over 500 yards of offense in last week's win. Also, the Huskies have already forced at least 3 turnovers in each of their 4 games this season. As for Stanford, the Cardinal have only forced a total of 4 turnovers in their 3 games this year. Both teams have some solid defensive stats so far this year but the Huskies are averaging 103 more yards per game on offense so far this season. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Washington has revenge for a 31-14 loss at Stanford last year. The Huskies are on a 17-9 ATS run as a home fave and have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite in conference games. The scheduling situation here certainly favors the Huskies as the Cardinal are playing back to back road games and on a short week while Washington's short week is helped by the fact their playing at home for the 4th time in 5 weeks this season. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS the week before facing the Ducks and they have a trip to Oregon on deck for next week. Stanford is on a 2-4 ATS run in road games with posted total between 42.5 and 45 points and the Cardinal also are only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played on turf. Look for the Huskies speed, at home on FieldTurf at Husky Stadium to be the difference-maker in this one. 8* WASHINGTON Friday

SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #363 - 10* Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies in Arlington, Texas @ 9 PM ET Saturday - A match-up of unbeatens and the Aggies are also 3-0 ATS. However, their week one win was over UCLA in overtime. A & M gave up 468 yards in that game. Their 2nd game was against Prairie View so certainly that was a chance for the Aggies to pad their stats. Then, last week, A & M did knock off Auburn but the Tigers had 26 first downs (compared to 19 for the Aggies) and Auburn did amass 236 yards on the ground. Keep in mind that the Aggies are known for struggling against the run and the Razorbacks have outgained them on the ground by a margin of 517 to 202 in the last two meetings between these teams. Texas A & M did prevail in those games but both were decided in overtime. There is exceptional line value here with the Razorbacks as a 6.5 point dog (as of Friday evening) as they are on a 9-1 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Arkansas blasted Texas State 42 to 3 last week. Arky is also on an 11-4-1 ATS run in SEC games including 9-2-1 when they are an underdog in SEC action. The Aggies are on a 4-8-1 ATS run as a fave in SEC action and A & M is 7-17-1 ATS overall against SEC foes. The Aggies are over-rated right now, early in this season, as they have played the weaker schedule compared to Arkansas. Also, this is a  neutral site game and Arkansas is arguably the better team. The Razorbacks defense did return 9 starters from last year's team and they are improved and it looks like head coach Bret Bielema will finally get his revenge against Kevin Sumlin and his Aggies. The Razorbacks are on a 7-1 ATS run in games where they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arky is on an 11-4 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Conversely, A & M is on a 3-10 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Look for these trends to continue here. 10* ARKANSAS Saturday

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #384 - 8* Tennessee Volunteers (-) vs Florida Gators @ 3:30 ET Saturday - The Gators have won 11 straight times over the Vols. The opening line on this game saw the odds makers hang an 8 on the Volunteers! Free money, right? The odds makers have lost their minds, right? Hardly! How many times have you seen that happen? That is simply not the case and yet the whole world has jumped on Florida here as this line is down to a 4.5 as of Friday evening. The fact is that there is plenty of good reasoning for the Vols putting an end to the losing streak with the Gators in Saturday's match-up and that is why I have no reservation about laying the very reasonable number now available on the home team in this one. First off, the Gators lost their starting QB last week and his replacement (Austin Appleby) though experienced, has a 2-9 record as a starter in his college career. The Vols have a the huge edge at QB as Joshua Dobbs is a senior who is the perfect guy to play behind a shaky offensive line (admittedly a weakness of the Volunteers). Even though the Gators may get some penetration they have to be very careful because Dobbs is elusive and then he burns teams with his legs or with busted coverage downfield by extending the play. Many forget that last season the Vols were up 27-14 late in the fourth quarter before some "gator magic" helped lead Florida to the win but that game was in the Swamp. It will be a much different story on the road this time around and the key to last season's match-up was that Vols head coach Butch Jones certainly had a good game plan! The 254 rushing yards that Tennessee had was the most that head coach Jim McElwain's Gators allowed all season long. I am well aware of the fact that Florida is off to an amazing start on defense this year but playing a weak schedule so far has certainly helped in that regard. Now the Gators take a big step up in terms of taking on a quality opponent and, unlike last season, the Vols won't blow a fourth quarter two touchdown lead this time around. Look for Gators QB Appleby to drop to 2-10 as a starter in his career. 8* TENNESSEE Saturday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #387 - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ Noon ET Saturday - The Noles were completely embarrassed in their 63-20 loss at Louisville last week. The Seminoles gave up 520 yards to the Cardinals in that game. They now face a Bulls team that is a 3-0 both SU and ATS so far this season. However, South Florida also gave up huge yardage last week and that was at Syracuse! The fact is that the Bulls have had a very easy schedule so far this season with games against Towson (FCS school), Northern Illinois (off a multi-OT road loss), and then the Orange last week. By the way, Syracuse lit up the Bulls "vaunted" defense for 549 yards! The point I am making is that the fact that South Florida has allowed 20 points or less in each of their three games this season is certainly something that should have an asterisk by it as they haven't played anywhere close to the schedule that FSU has. Though the Noles week one win over Ole Miss seems like a distant memory, it shouldn't be that way. This is a good Seminoles team that is fired up and that has not lost back to back games in 5 years! That's right, the Noles have not lost consecutive games since 2011. Their current streak (66 games) is only bettered by one team, Oregon (70) in the entire country. That said, I have no qualms about laying the 5 points here as the Seminoles have beaten the Bulls by a combined score of 64 to 31 in their last two meetings and they are fully focused for this opportunity to get back on track after last week's debacle. 8* FLORIDA STATE Saturday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #305 - 8* TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ SMU Mustangs @ 8 ET Friday - Tough break for SMU with losing their starting QB, a senior, to a season ending knee injury. With Davis out, a freshman has taken over the reins at the QB position and it has certainly been a struggle for Ben Hicks. The young QB was playing high school ball in Waco last fall and, not surprisingly, he has struggled with a low completion rate plus he has thrown way too many picks here at the collegiate level. The Mustangs offense does move the ball well under head coach Chad Morris but the turnovers and mistakes have hurt SMU badly and they now face a TCU team that already saw the Morris offense last year. That spells trouble for the Mustangs and I expect the struggles for freshman QB Hicks to continue. As for the Horned Frogs, their offense can again "roll it up" on an SMU defense that continues to be the weakness of the team. Last year SMU allowed 45.7 points per game to rank near the very bottom of FBS schools. This season, they have been helped so far by facing a weak schedule to start the season with North Texas and Liberty included already this month but, in their one tough test Baylor put up 34 points in the 2nd half against the Mustangs after a rare, sluggish first half for the Bears. TCU is well aware of those first half struggles that Baylor had and the Horned Frogs already had an upset loss this season (against Arkansas). That said, there is no question they are going to bring full effort here for the full sixty minutes in this one! Keep in mind that, even though this is a non-conference match-up, both of these teams are from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and that insures that the Horned Frogs, even with a big lead, are not going to take their foot off of the gas in this one. TCU has scored at least 48 points in each of their last three games against SMU and the Mustangs only scored 13 against Baylor earlier this season. I rarely lay big points like this but everything points to a win here by about 5 TDs rather than the 3 TD margin that is the current spread on this one. By the way, TCU is on a perfect 5-0 ATS run in games after facing Iowa State. Also, SMU is just 2-8 ATS their last 10 as a home dog. Also, the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 in this series and the Horned Frogs won't let up here considering this is the Battle for the Iron Skillet. The last time the Mustangs hosted this rivalry game SMU was demolished 56 to 0. Another ugly home loss looms here. 8* TCU Friday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #303 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET Thursday - The last time Clemson visited Georgia Tech they lost 28 to 6 two years ago. That said, even though the Tigers have a big game on deck with Louisville coming up next week, there is no way that Clemson will overlook the Yellow Jackets here. That is bad news for Georgia Tech because, though their 3-0 record looks great, they truly haven't faced anything close to the quality of an opponent like the Tigers this season. Georgia Tech has faced Boston College (1-2 and just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0) and Mercer (an FCS school) and Vanderbilt (1-2 and only win came against Middle Tennessee State). Now the Yellow Jackets take on one of the best teams in the nation and Clemson drilled them 43-24 last year as Georgia Tech was held to their lowest yardage output of the season. The Tigers run defense is allowing only 2.6 yards per carry this season and that will be a key in shutting down the Yellow Jackets triple-option offense which is so heavily focused on the ground game. Clemson held Auburn to a total of only 262 yards in their week one non-covering win. Auburn got a late TD for the backdoor cover but Clemson has now forced 8 turnovers in their first three games and their defense will be a key. Just like last year, the Tigers again give the Yellow Jackets offense a lot of problems and drop Georgia Tech to 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 lined games. The Tigers are on a 17-9-1 ATS run in ACC action and this is their conference opener. Their first ACC game, Georgia Tech's 3-0 start, and past struggles in road games against the Yellow Jackets means a fully focused effort from the road team here. Look for a road rout to be the result. 8* CLEMSON Thursday 

Marquee Showdown - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #192 - 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Ohio State is ranked #3 in the country and the Buckeyes have won their first two games this season by a combined score of 125 to 13. Oklahoma is ranked #14 in the nation but what the betting markets remember about them is their ugly season-opening loss against Houston. The Sooners are 0-2 ATS on the season and the Buckeyes are already 2-0 ATS this season. All of the above considered don't you find it curious that this line is only in the "pick'em" range on Ohio State? Exactly! Once again another contrarian play for me as I am going to grab the team that everyone remembers from their poor performance against Houston and I am going to fade the much higher ranked team that has been absolutely dominate so far this season. How can we do this with confidence? For one thing, the Sooners know they can't afford another loss. They have an "us against the world" mentality for this game and OU is hungry to prove they belong with the elite in college football after their disappointing week 1 performance. Keep in mind that the Buckeyes haven't truly been tested yet as they were favored by 4 TD's in each of their first two games. Keep in mind this is an OSU team that returned only 6 starters from last year's team while Oklahoma returned 13 starters from a team that was in the playoffs last year and OU, unlike OSU, certainly has already been tested this season by virtue of that big battle with Houston in Week 1. The Sooners erased some of the opening week disappointment with a 59-17 win over Louisiana Monroe last week but OU knows they need this game Saturday to get back into the national spotlight that they are use to being in. Though the Buckeyes win last week looks great at first glance, Ohio State certainly benefited from 6 Tulsa turnovers in that game. The Buckeyes offense didn't move the ball all that well for long periods of time especially early in the game. That same questionable offense will face a much stiffer test this week in Norman, OK! 8* OKLAHOMA Saturday evening

Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #186 - 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Michigan State is ranked HIGHER than Notre Dame and yet the Spartans opened up as MORE than a TD underdog in this game! What does that tell you? Exactly! If you're a contrarian player like I am you are all over the Fighting Irish in this game. There is a reason the line may "look funny" and that's because Michigan State has had many successful seasons in recent years. However, as I stated before the season, the Spartans will be one of the teams I'll be looking to fade this year. Michigan State lost QB Connor Cook and also a ton of other returning starters on both sides of the ball. Even though the D should still be solid for the Spartans (despite losing a lot of starters) their offense is truly being "rebuilt" and they won't have the firepower to keep up with Notre Dame here. The Fighting Irish have already been tested as they had that tough battle with Texas to open up the season. As for the Spartans, they opened up against an FCS team, Furman, and then had a bye week last week. This has done very little to prepare Michigan State for the "onslaught" that this high-powered Notre Dame offense is going to throw at them Saturday. The Irish offense has averaged 33.5 points per game under Brian Kelly the last two seasons and they are already putting up big points this season (and not against FCS schools). The Spartans only beat Furman by 15 points in week one and the Irish didn't allow a TD to Nevada last week until late 4th quarter. It was a much better performance for the defense compared to week one against Texas but, again, the key here is that the Irish are at home and can put up points in a hurry and the Spartans offense just doesn't have the ability to "keep up" in a game like this. Don't be fooled by the line here. The Spartans will be exposed early this season and this is the first such opportunity so it is the right time to jump in. Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in September games the past 2+ seasons. The Irish are on an 11-2 SU run and 9-4 ATS run in home games! 10* NOTRE DAME Saturday evening

TOP Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #168 - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Here you have an unranked Cornhuskers team taking on a ranked Ducks team and yet Nebraska is a 3 point favorite over Oregon. Of course this has many bettors flocking to Oregon but truly the odds makers knew what they were doing here. Nebraska is a team on the rise and the Ducks truly aren't the same team they were in recent seasons and yet Oregon remains very popular with bettors. Of course this helps drive value for us in spots like this as I expect Nebraska win this game by double digits. The Huskers have an edge here with head coach Mike Riley formerly coaching at Oregon State. As head man of the Beavers you have to know the Ducks program inside and out and that is an edge here. Cornhuskers QB Armstrong had a huge game last week through the air and Nebraska also delivered a huge game on the ground in the prior week. Certainly I respect the Oregon offense but their defense is very vulnerable and even got gashed by the ground game of Virginia and the Cavaliers certainly aren't known for that. The Huskers have the right personnel and systems to pound on the ground again like Nebraska teams of old but Armstrong also gives them the huge aerial threat that keeps defenses off balance. Note that Oregon had their worst season in a long time with a 9-4 showing last year and their defense allowed 485 yards per game and they now have a new defensive coordinator in Brady Hoke. This is a team that is regressing even though head coach Mark Helfrich is in his fourth year here. They just don't have the same talent level they had in the Chip Kelly years and they lost a ton of starters from last year's team. Conversely, Nebraska returned most of their starters from last year and, after a down year last year, they are poised to bounce back and have already covered each of their first two games while the Ducks are already 0-2 ATS. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday afternoon.

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #174 - 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET - After the gut-wrenching loss to Central Michigan last week, Oklahoma State is fired up for this one. The Cowboys also benefit from catching Pittsburgh off of an emotional win over in-state rival Penn State as the Panthers renewed their rivalry with the Nittany Lions last week. Pitt has their ACC opener on deck and, even though OSU has their Big 12 opener on the deck, the travel situation strongly favors the Cowboys here. Oklahoma State is playing their third straight home game while the Panthers are making an unusual road trip to Big Twelve country. It is the first time Pittsburgh has played on the road against a Big 12 team since they traveled to Nebraska in 2005. The Cowboys returned the majority of their starters from last season's team so they have a veteran group that is ready to respond appropriately at home in Stillwater, OK after last week's unreal finish that handed them a tough loss. Look for the Cowboys to improve to 10-5 as a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 10 points while dropping the Panthers to 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE Saturday

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #106 - 8* Rice Owls (+) vs Baylor Bears @ 8 ET Friday - Rice certainly fits the definition of "ugly dog" in this match-up but, simply put, the points being offered here are quite generous when you consider all the factors in this match-up. Keep in mind that, like the Owls, the Bears are also 0-2 ATS this season. They continue to be overvalued and truly, are not playing as well under interim coach Jim Grobe in comparison with the pre-scandal days. The Baylor program has certainly been impacted and this is their first road game of the season while also being Rice's first home game and the Owls made some significant upgrades to their facility that were completed this summer and Rice has been looking forward to this game with great anticipation. Bears interim head coach Grobe, after back to back ATS losses to start this season, is on a 1-13 ATS run as a non-conference favorite of 7 points or more. Though he and the Bears may win this big, I don't see them covering the current number of 31.5 points. Last week Baylor was tied at the half with SMU as penalties also have hurt the Bears early this season. This Bears team has quite a bit of inexperience and immaturity that has impacted them and I foresee another non-covering win here for Baylor. Grobe has no reason to run up the score on head coach David Bailiff and the Owls but don't be surprised if this one is much closer than many would expect. Rice had an awful season on defense last year but they returned most of those starters. Facing Western Kentucky's fantastic passing attack and Army's dominating ground game (both games on the road) back to back is a tough way to start the season. Now, at home, and playing with revenge from a 70-17 beating at Baylor last year, the Owls will be hungry for a huge performance at Rice Stadium in Houston. If Art Briles (gone after the scandal) was still the coach at Baylor this one might play out differently. But under coach Grobe (and with the team having been impacted by the off-season issues) this game is unlikely to be decided by more than three TDs. Grobe teams just don't have a knack for running up huge scores and, keep in mind, their big win in week one was against a clearly over-matched FCS team, Northwestern State. Rice is on par with the SMU team that Baylor struggled with through the first half last week and, keep in mind, that game was in Waco. The Owls keep this one respectable in their home opener. 8* RICE OWLS Friday

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #373 - Non-Conf Game of the Year - 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET Saturday - North Carolina put up quite a battle at Georgia last week but, after leading 24-14, the Tar Heels then allowed the final 19 points of the game to the Bulldogs. I had Georgia last week and was not surprised by the end result. However, what did surprise me is that, even though Heels starting QB Trubisky struggled some, the Tar Heels truly battled hard against a quality opponent and they now take a big step down in class as they face Illinois. Of course the Illini are now led by head coach Lovie Smith who had spent many years in the NFL. While I have plenty of respect for Mr. Smith it is going to take awhile for him to build this team in the way he wants. Illinois is off of an impressive win in Week 1 but that came against an over-matched Murray State team. Also, the Illini certainly were also helped by a turnover factor of 3-0 in favor of Illinois. The line on this Week 2 game opened up at a 10. Of course the betting markets see a road fave of double digits that ended up blowing their game at Georgia and they see an Illinois team off of a 52-3 win and now a home dog and we all see what then happens to this line. As of Friday afternoon it is down to a 7.5 and though I'd like to have a 7 here it is "go time" for me with this one. While the Illini may be feeling a little too good about themselves after last week's dominating win the Tar Heels come into this game very hungry for a win and they only have James Madison on deck. They blasted Illinois 48-14 last season but coach Larry Fedora has his troops ready for this one and certainly has warned his team that this will be a different Illini team with Lovie Smith at the helm. The problem for Lovie is he returns only 9 starters from last year's team and they are projected to be among the bottom feeders in the Big Ten while the Tar Heels are expected to finish near the top of the ACC. The Illini only returned one starter from their back seven on defense this season and they're trying to stop a UNC offense that ranked 2nd in the ACC and 18th in the nation last year with 487 yards per game. As you can see, this should prove to be a road rout! 10* North Carolina -7.5 Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #337 - Contrarian Cashout - 8* Northern Illinois Huskies +15.5 @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET Saturday - The Bulls have been a popular choice. this week. They are a solid team but to rise from a 12 to all the way about a two TD spread here is a little much. I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Huskies had a very late game at Wyoming last week for more reasons than one. Not only was the game time pushed back by bad weather in the area but also it ended up being a triple-overtime thriller. While certainly a game like this that ends (literally) the next morning can be impacting to a team, lets keep in mind a few key points here. One, the Huskies lost the game and are very focused on getting into the win column this week. Two, it is very early in the season (of course) and so this type of effort (while certainly a significant effort) is not going to leave a team totally spent in what will now be just their 2nd game of the season. The Huskies are hungry and they're focused and it also doesn't hurt that this is an evening game Saturday. Much better than had it been a Noon ET start (11 AM on UNI body clocks). Another positive factor here is that Northern Illinois was only an 8-5 team in the regular season last year but they did reach double digits in victories each of the FIVE prior seasons. Yes, they are "only" a MAC team but this is a team that is use to winning. Also, last year they did beat Toledo (a 10-2 team) and their losses to Boston College and Ohio State came by only a combined 10 points! South Florida played "only" an FCS team last week and also running back Marlon Mack is not 100%. Additionally, the Bulls are now the hunted and this is not a role they are use to being in. A lot of points being laid here for a USF team on a 6-14 ATS run as a home favorite. Note that the Huskies are on a 15-4 ATS run as an away dog. I'll grab the big points with a solid QB (Hare back from injury) leading the way in what should be a much closer game than odds makers are calling for. 8* Northern Illinois Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #340 - Daytime Dominator - 8* Duke Blue Devils -5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Both teams are off of season opening wins but while Wake Forest struggled against a Tulane team that has won 3 games or less in 4 of the last 5 years, Duke absolutely blew out their opponent. Granted it was an FCS shool but NC Central was no match for the Blue Devils and allows them to build up confidence heading into this match-up with the Demon Deacons. In last year's meeting Duke never trailed the entire way and they are now 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with 5 straight SU Blue Devils victories. Wake Forest used two quarterbacks in last week's game against Tulane and neither played well as evidenced by the Demon Deacons ending up with a yardage deficit of 280 to 175 versus the Green Wave. Duke did not fare well ATS as a home favorite last season but they had gone 12-3 as a home fave in the three prior seasons so, as you can see, they have generally fared very well in this role. The Demon Deacons are on an ugly 14-24 ATS run as a road dog. Also, Wake Forest's first road game the last 7 years has seen them lose every single not only straight-up but also ATS. 8* Duke Saturday afternoon.

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #212 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET Monday - The Seminoles simply return too much talent in comparison with the Rebels. While Florida State returns nearly their entire offense from last season and much of a solid defensive unit as well, Ole Miss returns very little especially on the offensive side of the ball. Yes they have their ultra talented QB back and certainly have a huge experience edge at the QB position. However, the Rebels are essentially rebuilding their offense (other than the QB spot) and their rebuilding process on the offensive line is bad news when you're facing a Seminoles defense that has an extremely talented and veteran defensive line. Look for this to be a mismatch in the trenches and that should help lead the Noles to a solid win by a comfortable margin in this one. The Seminoles not only essentially have home field edge here with this "neutral site game" being played in Orlando, they also have the hunger factor working in their favor. Both of these teams went into their bowl games last year as a 7.5 point favorite. While the Rebels won theirs by 4 TDs the Noles lost theirs by 2 TDs. FSU has been anxious to get back on the field ever since and I expect the Seminoles to roll through the Rebels like a buzzsaw in this one. Though the Noles have a redshirt freshman QB he is ultra-talented and the Seminoles are also loaded at the other skill positions including phenomenal running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Travis Rudolph. 8* FLORIDA STATE Monday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #206 - Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Arizona Wildcats +2.5 vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 10:30 PM ET Saturday - Tremendous line move here as the Wildcats have gone all the way from being 2.5 point faves to being 2.5 point dogs in this match-up. I do understand what many are looking at here. BYU is a veteran team and has the much better defense in comparing numbers with that of Arizona. Also, the Cougars "veteran" team is defined by a lot of returning starters on the offensive side of the ball including a big, experienced offensive line. This is viewed as a mismatch going against the smallish defensive line of the Wildcats. However, here are the keys that combat all this. Speedy linemen have a way of shooting the gaps when facing bigger opposition and speed kills. Arizona's defensive line may surprise with how they perform in this game. Additionally, Rich Rodriguez is in his fifth year as the head coach at Arizona while Kalani Sitake is not only in his first year as BYU's head coach, it is the first year he's been a head coach anywhere. Additionally, being an independent means the Cougars don't have conference games to look forward to. What motivates a team like this is a game like exactly what they have on deck next week. Brigham Young has a huge revenge match-up in their "Holy War" battle at Utah. The Cougars were absolutely embarrassed in last year's 35-28 bowl loss to the Utes in which BYU was down 35-0 in the first quarter. They can't help but have their sights set on that upcoming big-game match-up next week especially since the Cougars have now lost five straight to Utah! Arizona will have the home field edge (though this game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium) and the Wildcats are a Pac 12 offensive juggernaut. The Cats averaged 37 points per game last season and BYU (already peeking ahead to the Utes revenge game) simply is not going to be able to keep up in this one. Look for Rodriguez to outcoach Sitake in the latter's head coaching debut. 10* ARIZONA late Saturday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Georgia Bulldogs -3 vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 5:30 PM ET Saturday - Two quality teams in this match-up but considering the short line and the SEC vs ACC angle, there is great line value with a Bulldogs team that is also accustomed to playing in the Georgia Dome. This is truly not a "neutral site" game as the venue favors Georgia in a big way. The Bulldogs have a big edge on defense as North Carolina ranked much worse on yardage allowed than points allowed per game last season. In other words, the Tar Heels were fortunate and that defense now has to put up with the battering ram that is Nick Chubb and the powerful Bulldogs ground game. North Carolina got torched by teams with solid rushing attacks last season and this does not bode well for their opening game this season. The Bulldogs have a new head coach and he wants to get off of on the right foot. The Tar Heels have Fedora who is in his 5th year at North Carolina. Last year UNC lost their opener to South Carolina and they face a much tougher SEC opponent this time around. A big key here is that the Bulldogs are 29-7 SU and 25-10-1 in their last 36 games against ACC competition. The past two seasons Georgia went 7-3 ATS in non-conference action while North Carolina went 3-7 ATS in non-conference action. Two high-quality programs but SEC continues to hold the upper hand and the Tar Heels have lost 4 straight games (including 0-4 ATS) played on neutral sites. New Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart was the DC at Alabama the past 9 seasons and he played at Georgia for 4 years in the late 90's. It's a new era beginning post-Mark Richt and the Bulldogs led the SEC in pass defense last year and returned all the starters from their secondary. The Tar Heels have had some big offensive production highlight their reason campaigns but they don't have the defense to hang tough in this one. The Bulldogs have the superior defense. The Heels improved with defensive coordinator Gene Chizik last season but the way they fell off late in the season all the way through to their bowl game was quite alarming. Great line value on the more "settled" team here. 8* GEORGIA Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #160 - High Noon Top Blowout - 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats -4.5 vs Western Michigan Broncos @ Noon ET Saturday - You can tell by the line movement on this game (downward) that many are looking at the Broncos as an underdog in this early Saturday match-up. I completely respect Western Michigan as a MAC team but that is the key to the equation surrounding my big play on Northwestern in this match-up. The Wildcats are a Big Ten team that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their non-conference games last year. Note that the Broncos went just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS outside of the MAC last season. I am well aware of the fact that Western Michigan has gone bowling each of the last two years and has been a team on the rise in the MAC. However, the last time they played Northwestern they got rolled by a 3 TD margin and the Wildcats have won 8 of their last 9 home openers. With this line moving down there is even more value on Northwestern here as we laying a rather small number against a team from an inferior conference. Remember last year the Wildcats home opener featured an upset win over Stanford. Even though Western Michigan is no Stanford (in terms of motivation for a big win) there is no way that the Wildcats will overlook the Broncos as Northwestern has Illinois State on deck. That means there is definitely no lookahead factor here. The Wildcats were very strong on defense last year and return 6 starters from that D which gives them a huge edge in comparing the defensive capabilities of these two teams. Northwestern allowed only 16 points per game last year while Western Michigan allowed 28 points per game. Over the last 25 years the Broncos are 3-26 SU against Big Ten teams. Over this same period, the Wildcats are 12-5 SU against MAC teams. Big difference in terms of the level of competition and I feel this is a very reasonable line on the superior team whom also has the home field edge. Lay it. 10* NORTHWESTERN early Saturday. 

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #154 - Breakfast Bash - 8* Boston College Eagles +3 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (game played in Ireland) @ 7:30 AM ET Saturday - One of the big advantages that the Yellow Jackets generally have over their opponents is that they don't have a lot of time to prep for the option. Of course that is not the case when it comes to this season opening game against Boston College. The Eagles have had plenty of time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Tech. On top of that, Boston College had one of the top defenses in the nation last year and the Eagles return 15 starters this season while the Yellow Jackets are returning only 11 starters. Boston College ranks a big edge when you compare these two defenses and also ranks an edge in terms of the all-important experience factor that is so critical especially early in the season. The Yellow Jackets have made it easy on themselves in recent years by not scheduling FBS opposition to open the season. That changes this year with not only facing an FBS school but facing one of the teams with the best defenses in the country (particularly against the run) and facing them in Ireland on top of all that! The last time the Jackets faced an FBS school to open up a season they were held to just 17 points. The Eagles allowed only 15 points per game last season. The Yellow Jackets allowed 26 points per game last season. The Boston College offense is sure to show some improvement and facing a defense that is only returning 5 starters from last season certainly helps in that regard. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE early Saturday morning.

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #150 - ESPN Game of the Week - 8* Colorado Buffaloes -8 vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET Friday - In a rivalry game it is often enticing to grab the points with the underdog. In fact, the dog in this series is 13-6-1 ATS. However, prior to last year's OT win for the Buffaloes, 5 of the 7 prior meetings had been decided by a margin of at least 14 points. I expect another lopsided win in this year's match-up between these fierce rivals as Colorado simply has a huge edge in experience and the Rams have major concerns on defense. While the Buffs return 18 starters from last year, Colorado State only returns 10 starters. Particularly concerning for the Rams is that they lost their defensive coordinator from last year and they also lost all the starters from the defensive line and some of their best players in the secondary as well. CSU is likely to struggle in the trenches early this season and also will be susceptible to blown coverages downfield. In other words, the Rams are in trouble as they are unlikely to stop either the run game or the passing attack of a Pac 12 Buffaloes team that went 3-1 in non-conference action last season and averaged 38 points per game. Colorado is very experienced on the defensive side of the ball and coordinator Jim Leavitt is now in his 2nd season with the program and he has more experienced personnel to work with this season. Leavitt's blitz packages and the "stunts" will keep the Rams offense from getting comfortable in this one. This game is being played in Denver where the Buffaloes have won 6 of the last 8 with an average margin of victory of 13 points. Look for the Rams to drop to 1-4 ATS a neutral field underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* COLORADO Friday

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play TCU Horned Frogs +7 vs Oregon @ 6:45 ET - Of course everyone by now has heard of the suspension of TCU starting QB Trevone Boykin due to his late night drunken antics here in San Antonio just a few nights before the bowl game. While this has resulted in an incredible line move in favor of Oregon, it has in turn opened up fantastic line value on the Horned Frogs. I look for Texas Christian University to rally around the fact that Boykin and WR Josh Doctson (injury) are out for this game. What the market is failing to adjust for properly here is the fact that the Frogs do have a senior QB back-up ready to go for this game. When Boykin was out for the game against the Sooners earlier this season, senior QB Bram Kohlhausen did not get the start because his father had just passed away. However, Kohlhausen did end up playing in relief in that game and very nearly rallied the Horned Frogs back for the comeback win over Oklahoma. Look for the Horned Frogs to rally around Kohlhausen in this game and everyone Horned Frog player is likely to step up their game and their intensity level as they respond to the Boykin suspension. The Horned Frogs have the much better defense in this match-up. TCU allowed 21 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. Conversely, the over-rated Ducks allowed at least 28 points in 10 of their 12 games this season. Oregon's D is allowing nearly 100 yards more and 10 points more than the Horned Frogs. That plus the site location favoring TCU and the ability to get a full TD now with a dangerous underdog has me siding with the Horned Frogs in a BIG way on Saturday. Don't be surprised if this turns into a huge upset win for TCU but I am certainly grabbing the generous points. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal -6 vs Iowa @ 5 ET - Iowa narrowly missed an undefeated season but they were so fortunate overall. The Hawkeyes regular season schedule was kind as they avoided the Buckeyes, Spartans, and Wolverines. This helped Iowa to enjoy a big season until they ran into Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship and the Spartans put an end to their unbeaten season. Not only did this end the Hawkeyes chances at gunning for the National Championship, it also exposed their weaknesses as Iowa was outgained by nearly 100 yards by the Spartans. Yes, that's the same Spartans team that lost 38-0 to Alabama yesterday. In other words, Iowa may have trouble remaining competitive in this game against the Cardinal. Stanford comes into this game with an 11-2 mark on the season and, unlike Iowa, the Cardinal are coming into this game off of a win. Stanford knocked off Notre Dame this season and USC (twice) including in the Pac 12 Title game which Stanford took over the Trojans in dominating fashion with a 41-22 win. The Hawkeyes just don't have the offense to keep up here. Stanford, after a disappointing 16-6 loss to open up their season, averaged 40 points per game the rest of the season and the Cardinal scored at least 30 points in every single game! By comparison, Iowa was held to 31 points or less in 8 of their 13 games and only once did they score more than 40. Keep in mind Stanford AVERAGED 40. The powerful Cardinal have edges across the board on offense and they also have the special teams edge and played the tougher schedule in comparison with Iowa. Combining all these factors with the Hawkeyes suffering "unbeaten letdown" with the loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Championship and you have the perfect spot for a blowout rout for Stanford who get the added benefit of playing this game in their home state.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Ohio State Buckeyes -6 vs Notre Dame @ 1 ET - Ohio State certainly was disappointed that they were unable to make it to the playoffs. Notre Dame has only two losses on the year and those each came by a margin of just two points. That said, how can the Buckeyes by favored by nearly a TD here? Think about that for a minute...exactly! The reason is because Ohio State should roll here. Don't fall for the trap with this line. Ohio State already proved they would bounce back off of a disappointing situation when they blasted Michigan by 29 points after suffering the heart-breaking 3 point loss to Michigan State the prior week. The Buckeyes now will be out to prove that they did belong in the playoffs and so they will show no mercy against an over-matched Notre Dame team here. Keep in mind, all the Buckeyes wins this season came by at least 7 points. Even though the Fighting Irish have played well this season they did allow at least 24 points in 7 of their last 11 games. To put that in to perspective in terms of comparison with the Buckeyes, note that Ohio State allowed 17 points or less in 9 of their last 11 games. Of course a 24-17 Buckeyes final score gets the job done here but I am expecting an even bigger margin than that. Ohio State not only has the superior defense in this match-up, the Buckeyes also have averaged 40 points per bowl game under coach Urban Meyer. Combining his 3 bowls with Ohio State with his prior history, coach Meyer is 9-2 SU and ATS in bowl games. He also has 3 national titles! The Irish offense won't be able to do enough damage against this powerful Buckeyes defense to keep in this game. That turns this into an Ohio State rout!

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -10 vs Michigan State @ 8 ET - This is a traditional "trap line" game and that's why I am unloading on the Crimson Tide here. It is a match-up of 12-1 teams and therefore many feel that Alabama certainly should not be a double digit fave against such a strong Big Ten foe. This is especially true since this SEC powerhouse lost last year to Ohio State in the Bowls as an 8 point favorite! However, the reasons above are precisely the reason you want to back Alabama here. The line is fooling the general public. The Crimson Tide are seeking to atone for last year's Sugar Bowl loss to he Buckeyes that kept Alabama out of the national championship game. Let's also not forget that Michigan State beat Oregon even though they were outgained by over 100 yards. Also, the Spartans beat Ohio State and Michigan on last second plays as Michigan State never held the lead in either one of those games and yet one each on the final play. They also beat Iowa on a TD with less than 30 seconds left in the game. They have led a 'charmed life' to say the least so far this season and I expect Alabama to dominate here. The Crimson Tide have seen 11 of their 12 victories this season come by a margin of at least 13 points. Alabama has allowed an average of just 12 points per game in their 12 wins. As solid as Michigan State's defense is, the Spartans allowed at least 21 points in 8 of their first 9 games this season. Look for the powerful Crimson Tide to impose their will here. Look for Alabama head coach Nick Saban to make the most of his first ever match-up with his old school as he was the head coach at MSU for 5 years in the last 90's. Lay the points as Alabama does what it's been doing all season long. Dominate on defense and win the game by a double digit margin!

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Clemson Tigers +4 vs Oklahoma @ 4 ET - Certainly I have a lot of respect for Oklahoma but the Sooners have overachieved this season. OU was fortunate that their match-ups with Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State featured major issues for their opponents at the QB position. Certainly QB injuries in the Big 12 (but Sooners QB Baker Mayfield staying healthy) helped Oklahoma reach the top spot. As I stated above, I certainly do respect the Sooners but the point of all this above is that I do question them being a 4 point favorite over an undefeated Clemson team. The Tigers are 13-0 on the season but certainly are getting no respect here as they opened up as a 3 point dog and now this line is up to a solid 4 points on this game. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson gives the Tigers a dual threat option and is the better talent at the QB position (especially from a dual threat perspective) although Mayfield has thrived this season in the "Air Raid offense" installed by offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley. The Sooners are running into a very tough pass defense here and the Tigers defense, overall, allowed just 17 points per game before they let up some late in the season. That let-up was inevitable after they knocked off Florida State and then were a huge favorite in the rest of their regular season games until they ran into North Carolina in the ACC title game. Even though the Tigers only beat the Tar Heels by 8 they did outgain them by 226 yards in the game. To summarize, the potent Tigers just aren't being given the respect they deserve here and Clemson is highly motivated by virtue of being ranked #1 and yet being installed as an underdog here. They will play extremely hard with a chip on their shoulder throughout the game as the Tigers look to scratch and claw their way to the national championship game. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Houston Cougars +7 vs Florida State @ Noon ET - The Seminoles will be the popular choice here as an ACC team while the Cougars come in from the less highly regarded AAC. The fact is that this venue and the situation both strongly favor Houston. Florida State can't be too excited about this match-up after last year playing in the Rose Bowl in a Playoff Semi-Final. After an ugly loss to the Ducks in that game, the Noles were hoping for a big push this season and giving themselves another shot at a national championship. With that scenario not working out for the 10-2 Seminoles, look for them to struggle to match the intensity and motivation edges that 12-1 Houston brings into this game. The Cougars have the big advantages in those categories as well as at the QB position. On the fast track in a dome setting, look for QB Greg Ward to have an absolutely monster game here. Houston averaged 40.6 points per game this season and they roll into this match-up with plenty of momentum after getting a big win in the AAC Championship Game. Florida State comes into this game with disappointment as they lost 2 of their last 5 ACC games and the Noles certainly had higher hopes than facing the Houston Cougars to end the season. Motivation goes a long way in a game like this and the Cougars have the potent offense to give the Seminoles all sorts of trouble in this one. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +3.5 vs USC @ 10:30 ET - The Trojans certainly have the eye-catching talent on the offensive side of the ball. However, defense wins football games and the Badgers had one of the best defensive units in the nation this season. I look for the Badgers to be up to the challenge of shutting down USC's offense. At the same time, USC has already begun cleaning house on the defensive side of the ball but getting rid of five defensive assistants right before a bowl game is unlikely to pay immediate dividends. Look for the Trojans defense to continue to show that it is in a state of flux and that will allow a mediocre Badgers offense to get plenty of points to support a prolific Wisconsin defense that should dominate once again. Keep in mind that USC seemed to struggled every time it was asked to step up against tougher competition this season. The Trojans lost to Stanford (twice!), Oregon, Notre Dame, and also to a mediocre Washington team. Other than the loss to the Huskies, the other four losses came by an average margin of 15 points per game. Conversely, the Badgers went 9-2 after the season-opening loss to Alabama and the two losses came by an average of just five points. Wiscy doesn't get blown out, the Trojans do, and that has me grabbing the available points here with a motivated underdog that is seeking it's 5th win in it's last 7 non-New Year's Day bowls. The Badgers will be ready here. Play Wisconsin +3.5 as a *10* Top Play Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* NC State Wolfpack +7 vs Mississippi State @ 3:30 ET - The Bulldogs did not impress in the way the finished up the season and I like the motivated Wolfpack in this spot. Mississippi State lost two of their three final games and allowed an average of 40 points per game in those final three games. NC State also comes into this game having lost two of their last three games but they didn't come into the season with the same big aspirations that Mississippi State had. With that said, the Wolfpack are fired up about this opportunity to take on an SEC foe in the Belk Bowl in their home state. Look for NC State to make the most of it. The Wolfpack saw what happened to Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott when he faced a lot of pressure against Ole Miss in Mississippi State's season finale. That said, you can bet that NC State will have plenty of pressure dialed up for this match-up with Prescott and Company. The Bulldogs defense also took a blow late in the season as they lost two starters from their secondary including lockdown corner Will Redmond. Look for Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett (19 TDs against just 4 INTs) to take advantage. Even though NC State lost RB Matthew Dayes to a season ending injury in game 8 of the season, the Wolfpack still have a talented group of running backs fully capable of filling in. The powerful NC State running game will open things up for Brissett to take advantage with throws downfield and I look for the motivated Wolfpack to steal the upset here. If they do fall short it should be by a field goal or less. Play NC State +7 as an *8* selection Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 vs LSU @ 9 ET - LSU entered the season as a title contender but they certainly fell well short of that with an 8-3 record. The Tigers certainly can't be too excited about playing in the Texas Bowl on December 29th when their aspirations heading into the season were certainly much higher than this. With that said, the motivated underdog Red Raiders are the play here. Texas Tech, similar to when they knocked off Arizona State in the 2013 Holiday Bowl, are very excited to be here. There is a strong possibility that the Red Raiders get another outright upset against a stronger foe once again in this bowl match-up. Texas Tech has such a potent offense with QB Patrick Mahomes leading the way that I just don't see LSU getting many defensive stops in this one. Certainly LSU will enjoy some offensive success against the Red Raiders D as the defense of Texas Tech is a weakness. However, RB Leonard Fournette truly finished up the season in disappointing fashion and I don't expect him to be at his best here after not even attending the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York. On the other side of the ball the Tigers defense faltered as the year went on and they're now facing a Red Raiders team that already knocked off a similar SEC team (Arkansas) in the regular season. Texas Tech is certainly going to give LSU all they can handle here and I will be surprised if the Tigers can even answer the Red Raiders score for score in this one. Grab the highly motivated, ultra dangerous underdog in this one. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Colorado State Rams -3 vs Nevada @ 7:30 ET - The Rams are looking to atone for last year's ugly 45-10 bowl loss against Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Colorado State comes into this bowl match-up on a big roll as they have won four straight games and the average margin of victory was 11 points per game. The Wolf Pack come into this game heading the opposite direction as they have lost each of their past two games and Nevada allowed 31 points in each. Colorado State has a good history with the Wolf Pack as the Rams have won 11 of the last 13 meetings. Also, Nevada has won just 1 of 8 bowl games in their history. Though both teams have powerful ground-based attacks I look for the Rams to prevail here. CSU averaged 258 rushing yards per game in their last 4 games and Nevada was out-gained on the ground by a 320 to 35 mark in their season finale against San Diego State. The Wolf Pack do want to avoid a losing season but the Rams are the hotter team and you can bet that head coach Bobo has his team fired up for his first bowl game as a head coach. Colorado State is very hungry here and has the intensity I like to see from a team heading into a bowl game.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* California Golden Bears -6.5 vs Air Force @ 2 ET - I realize that, overall, Cal's defense was a weakness this season. However, they did defeat San Diego State 31 to 7 early this season and that is an Aztecs team that runs the ball very well. Air Force lost to that same San Diego State team in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by a 27-24 final. California's defense will stack the line with eight men in the box to slow down the option attack of Air Force. As for when the Golden Bears are on offense, look out! Cal is led by QB Jared Goff and he should enjoy phenomenal success picking apart the weak pass defense of Air Force. California just missed getting to a bowl last season and that gives them even more motivation to take care of business in the Armed Forces Bowl Tuesday. With the Golden Bears able to focus on shutting down the running attack of the Falcons, look for Cal's more balanced offensive attack to be the difference in this match-up as Air Force only averages about 12 pass attempts per game. The Falcons offense simply won't be able to keep up with a Cal offense that produced 41 points per game in their last 3 games of the season. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers +6.5 vs UCLA @ 9:15 ET Saturday -  Why is an 8-4 team favored by less than a TD against a 5-7 team? Precisely! Don't be fooled by this line. It's actually a great value to be able to play the Huskers here with this line at more than field goal. Nebraska battled hard and suffered many tight losses this season. That is helping to create line value here as, based on playing a tough schedule and suffering some tight beats, this line is much higher than it should be. 5 of Nebraska's 7 losses this season came by 5 points or less. The Cornhuskers did not have a single loss by more than 10 points and the average margin of defeat in their 7 losses was 4.7 points per defeat! The Huskers did fall short against Iowa in their regular season finale but Nebraska outgained the Hawkeyes by a 433 to 250 margin. The Huskers also had the big upset of Michigan State this season and I can't see the Bruins being too excited about this game as they are still lamenting their loss by a 40-21 loss to USC that wrapped up their regular season. Remember that UCLA even had national title aspirations coming into this season. Now their bowl game is the day after Christmas. The Bruins aren't nearly as excited as the Cornhuskers are to be here. Play Nebraska +6.5 as a *10* Top Play Saturday. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Washington Huskies -8 vs Southern Miss @ 2:20 ET Saturday - Why is a 6-6 team favored by more than a TD against a 9-4 team? Precisely! Don't be fooled by this line. It's actually a great value to be able to play the Huskies here with this line in single digits. Southern Mississippi played an extremely weak schedule, one of the weakest in all of NCAA Division 1 football. The Golden Eagles will be exposed here by a solid Pac-12 team that played a very tough schedule this season. The Huskies are led by head coach Petersen who went 5-2 SU and ATS in his bowl games with Boise State. That said, after losing the Cactus Bowl last year in his first bowl game with the Huskies, Petersen and Company are fired up about getting a big win in their second bowl game! In addition to the huge edge here based on strength of schedule, the Huskies have the vastly superior defense in comparison with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are led by head coach Monken and this is his first ever bowl game. The Huskies faced 10 bowl teams this season while Southern Miss faced only 5 and the Golden Eagles lost 4 of those 5 game with the average margin of defeat at 16 points per loss. Another double digit loss looms here! Play Washington -8 as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 vs San Diego State @ 8 ET Thursday - Both teams are missing their starting QB but the Bearcats are in much better shape with Hayden Moore at QB in comparison with San Diego State forced to go with Christian Chapman at QB. The Aztecs QB only had 38 pass attempts this season in comparison with 194 for Moore. The Bearcats have had trouble stopping the run this season but when that can be your focus (because you know you're facing a weak or injury-impacted offense) it does make a big difference. The Bearcats have good size on their defensive line and they won't just be run over by the Aztecs ground game. Look for Cincinnati to put 8 men in the box and to challenge a very inexperienced QB to try and beat them through the air. Cincy is a very talented team overall and, while their 7-5 record may not be overly impressive they did play a much tougher schedule than the 10-3 Aztecs. I also love fading the big line move here as it's moved by nearly a full TD. This is offering exceptional line value to an under-rated Cincinnati team that has a passing attack that is tough to stop and that is true even with Moore at the controls. San Diego State coach Long has a 2-7 bowl record while Bearcats coach Tuberville has a 7-5 record in bowls. Play Cincinnati plus the points as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +4.5 vs Western Michigan @ Noon ET Thursday - The MAC teams started off red hot in the bowls but may have shown their true colors yesterday as both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green got blasted in bowl action. That doesn't bode well for what can be expected from a Western Michigan team that came into the season with many not expecting the Broncos to reach a bowl. The defense of Western Michigan was expected to be the weakness and still is truly an area of concern entering this game. Though the Broncos come into this game off of a big season-ending win over Toledo, it did seem the Rockets (9-1 at the time) truly overlooked Western Michigan (6-5 at the time) in that game. Middle Tennessee State certainly is not going to overlook the Broncos as the Blue Raiders are excited to be in this bowl. They did not make a bowl last season despite being eligible and this has the Blue Raiders playing with some extra motivation and hunger in this game. Western Michigan was invited to a bowl last season and they lost to Air Force by two TDs as the Broncos have now lost all four bowl games they've been in the past ten seasons. Before Western Michigan's surprising season-ending win over Toledo they had lost two straight. Conversely, the Blue Raiders wrapped up their season with four straight wins (and averaging over 300 passing yards per game in the victories) and definitely come into this bowl game riding a huge wave of momentum. Play Middle Tennessee State plus the points as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Bowling Green -7 vs Georgia Southern @ 8 PM ET - The MAC enters the December 23rd action with a perfect 3-0 ATS mark so far in the bowls. Not only is the MAC rolling so far but the situation with GODADDY BOWL looks particularly strong as Bowling Green is only laying a TD and yet they are facing a team from the weaker SunBelt Conference. Georgia Southern certainly deserves credit for a solid regular season and they did amass an 8-4 ATS mark on the year. However, they faced a much weaker schedule than did the Falcons and Bowling Green went 9-3-1 ATS on the year. The Eagles run the triple option on offense and though that can be a difficult offense to defend against it does mean that pass defense is nearly completely taken out of the equation. Also, coming from the MAC, the Falcons certainly have faced plenty of tough running attacks and the extra time off before the bowl game helps Bowling Green to be fully prepared for what Georgia Southern's offense is going to throw at them. The Falcons had back to back strong performances on defense to wrap up the regular season and that also boosts their confidence for facing the Eagles attack. Conversely, Georgia Southern's defense got ripped for nearly 500 yards in their ugly 34-7 loss to Georgia State in their season finale. The Falcons potent offensive attack (561 yards per game!) will be too much for the Eagles to keep up with. Play Bowling Green -7 as a *10* Top Play Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Northern Illinois +8.5 vs Boise State @ 4:30 PM ET - Northern Illinois lost starting QB Drew Hare but 2nd stringer Ryan Graham has been practicing with the first team offense and looks ready to go for this game. MAC teams have performed very well so far this bowl season and I expect that to continue Wednesday. Can't see the Broncos as being too excited about this match-up. They were playing in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve last year. Now Boise State is in the Poinsettia Bowl two days before Christmas. Play the motivated dog here as the Huskies powerful ground game will make a big difference in this one. Look for MAC teams to improve to 4-0 ATS so far in this bowl season. Play Northern Illinois +8.5 as an *8* selection Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Temple Owls -2.5 vs Toledo @ 7 ET - Temple has the vastly superior defense in comparison with Toledo. The Owls only allowed 329.5 yards per game this season. Additionally, the Owls have been very strong against the pass with only 203.3 passing yards allowed per game. Besides the defensive edge for Temple in this one there is also a large coaching edge. That's because the Rockets former head coach, Campbell, took the job at ISU and that mean that the offensive coordinator, Candle, is taking over the head coaching reins for this bowl game. Not only is this his first ever bowl game, it actually is his first game as a head coach ever. This coaching situation is certainly going to be impacting to Toledo as is the way they wrapped up the season. The Rockets were in control of their own destiny but lost AT HOME to Western Michigan and that prevented Toledo from making it to the MAC Championship Game. The disappointment of that sour ending to the season coupled with the questionable coaching situation for this game is putting Toledo at a significant disadvantage entering this game. Temple is a veteran team that entered the season loaded with returning starters and with plenty of seniors on the roster. These guys want to end their college careers the right way and this Owls team has impressed me throughout this season and I look for them to go out on top here. Play Temple -2.5 as an *8* selection Tuesday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Western Kentucky -2.5 vs South Florida @ 2:30 PM ET - The key here is that the Bulls offense is not going to be able to keep up with the Hilltoppers. I am well aware of the fact that South Florida scored a bunch of points in their last few games of the season. However, a lot of that scoring was helped by the fact that the Bulls benefited from 9 turnovers in the last 3 games. The South Florida offense did run the ball very well but their passing attack is not "dangerous" enough and I look for Western Kentucky to work hard to stop the running game and this will challenge the Bulls offense to try and beat them through the air. The Hilltoppers defense gets a bad rap but they actually held their last 5 opponents to just 22.4 points per game. Also, Western Kentucky held their last five foes to an average of only 296.4 yards per game. These guys can play some defense and they are highly motivated about playing their former coach who ditched them to take the South Florida coaching game and that was right before a bowl game in 2012. The program hasn't forgotten that he bolted before the bowl game (one in which they lost) and that adds some extra incentive here. The Hilltoppers are averaging 520 yards and 44 points per game and this potent offense led by the fantastic talent of QB Brandon Doughty will prove to be too much for the Bulls to keep up with here. Play Western Kentucky minus the short number as an *8* selection Monday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Ohio University Bobcats +7.5 vs Appalachian State @ 5:30 PM ET - Though Ohio University has been dealing with injuries this season, the Bobcats have truly 'scratched and clawed' their way to a solid finish. Ohio U. ended up with an 8-4 record on the season thanks to three straight wins to end the season. This was a very impressive finish for a Bobcats team that was certainly impacted by injuries. Ohio University is highly motivated for this game as they feel disrespected by the line on this game. Appalachian State is a SunBelt Conference foe and, even with a 10-2 record on the season, the line on the Mountaineers here is truly over-inflated. The MAC may not be a power conference but it's stronger than the SunBelt. Additionally, the Bobcats beat a solid Northern Illinois team to wrap up the season. In addition to the motivation and 'strength of schedule' edges, Ohio U. also has the significantly better special teams units and a big coaching edge here with Solich having coached 6 bowl games with the Bobcats and 6 bowl games when he was with Nebraska. Mountaineers head coach Satterfield will be coaching his first ever bowl game. Appalachian State has a long-term 4-9 ATS record in non-conference games. Ohio U. is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. The motivated big dog is going to give Appalachian State all they can handle here and might even spring the outright upset. Play Ohio University +7.5 as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play Michigan State -3.5 vs Iowa @ 8:15 ET Saturday - The line may look 'off' to many but that's precisely why this is such a big play for me. Why is an undefeated and higher-ranked Iowa team the underdog in this match-up with an 11-1 Michigan State team? Precisely! It's exactly why I love the Spartans here and it doesn't take much investigation to uncover the key reasons for the 'head-scratching' line that was set on this game. The biggest key is strength of schedule. The Spartans played a much tougher schedule this season than did the Hawkeyes. The schedule worked out very favorably for Iowa this season as they were able to avoid all the power in the Big Ten East. The Hawkeyes did not play Michigan State, Ohio State, or Michigan this season. Note that the Spartans did play both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines and won both games. Though the Michigan win was certainly a fortunate win the fact is that just having played huge games against top tier teams in the conference like Michigan and Ohio State is giving a huge edge to Michigan State in this game in my opinion. The Hawkeyes are extremely fortunate they remained undefeated on the season as last week's game at Nebraska saw Iowa outgained by nearly 200 yards and the Cornhuskers doubled up the Hawkeyes in first downs! This is a huge game because, of course, the winner is heading for one of the top 4 playoff spots and Michigan State comes into this game with a full head of steam after following up their key win over Ohio State by steam-rolling Penn State last week! The Spartans late loss to Nebraska on November 7th actually helps them here as they no longer have the unbeaten pressure that still remains on Iowa. As shown recently, Michigan State is rolling ever since that defeat and the Hawkeyes are starting to show the effects of the unbeaten pressure as they were truly outplayed by Nebraska last week. This week it catches up with the Hawkeyes as they face their toughest test of the year and I don't see them having success against this fierce Spartans defense. Play Michigan State minus the points as a *10* Top Play Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* San Diego State -6.5 vs Air Force @ 7:30 ET Saturday - The big news for the Aztecs is the injury to their QB but with their powerful ground game and the size edge they have with their offensive line, I just don't see the undersized Falcons stopping the powerful rushing attack of San Diego State. The Aztecs have absolutely dominated in Mountain West Conference action with an 8-0 SU mark and a 7-1 ATS mark and the Falcons are off of a game where they allowed 377 rushing yards at New Mexico! Air Force now has to try and stop a San Diego State team that put up 320 rushing yards on Nevada last week. Also concerning for the Falcons is the fact they are facing one of the top defensive units in the nation. The Aztecs are allowing an average of 11.3 points per game in their last 8 games. San Diego State has not allowed more than 17 points in any of those 8 games. They also are the host of this Mountain West Championship game and the Aztecs have averaged nearly 34 points per game in their home games this season. This game has blowout written all over it as the Falcons triple option attack is something the Aztecs defense is built to stop. Play San Diego State minus the points an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Bowling Green Falcons -12 vs Northern Illinois @ 8 ET Friday - As much as I do respect Northern Illinois their QB situation is simply so bad here that it is just too much to ask QB Tommy Fiedler to come in and be their savior in the MAC Championship Game. First off, the Huskies are lucky to even be here. Northern Illinois lost starting QB Ryan Graham to injury in the game against Ohio University last week and this helped pave the way for a loss to the Bobcats. The only reason the Huskies made it to the MAC Championship Game is because Western Michigan beat Toledo last week and that created a tie at the top of the standings that allowed Northern Illinois to sneak into this game. The Huskies can say all they want about how they're ready for this game and how they have full confidence in their freshman QB, etc. but the fact is this guy is going from no college action (prior to the Ohio game) to now starting in a MAC Championship Game and trying to help his team match scores with a Bowling Green aerial attack that has simply been phenomenal this season. I just don't see this happening. I don't see the Huskies being able to keep pace with the Falcons on the fast track at Ford Field. The Falcons also have revenge on their minds after losing to the Huskies by 34 in this game last year. The year before it was Bowling Green on the right side of a 20 point blowout. I look for this year's game to land somewhere in that range as well with BG on the right side of a win by a margin of 3 to 5 TD's. The Huskies offense will struggle with Fiedler at the helm while Bowling Green's offense comes in averaging a ridiculous 566 yards per game on the season. Additionally, the Falcons confidence on the defensive side of the ball has grown as they've allowed just 14.2 points per game in their lsat 5 wins so it hasn't just been the offense getting the job done for Bowling Green. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS this season as a fave of 10.5 to 21 points. The Huskies are on a 2-7 ATS run in dome games. Play Bowling Green minus the points as an *8* Play Friday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -7 @ Oklahoma State @ 8 ET - The Sooners have won 10 of the last 12 meetings with Oklahoma State. Though it may seem surprising that Oklahoma is favored in the range of a TD here even though the game is in Stillwater, don't be fooled. The Sooners have played a tougher schedule than the Cowboys have and OU also has the much stronger defense when you compare these teams. It has been nearly 15 years since OSU has won back to back games in this series and they did get the HUGE upset win at OU last year in overtime even though they were down by two TD's at half-time. That big win for the Cowboys last year means there is no doubt that Oklahoma is fully focused on payback in this match-up Saturday. The Sooners barely got by TCU last week but OU lost QB Mayfield in the 2nd quarter with a concussion. He is back this week and will be ready to lead his team to a huge road win that OU must have if they want to win the Big 12. The Cowboys just don't have the defense to get enough stops to win this. OSU gave up 700 yards of offense in their loss to Baylor last week. Keep in mind the Bears were down to their third straight QB in that game so that says even more about just how weak this Cowboys defense is. Oklahoma is 8-3 ATS on the season and the Sooners are on a long-term 13-6 ATS run away from home! They can win this one in road rout fashion. Play Oklahoma -7 as a *10* Top Play Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Illinois Illini +3.5 vs Northwestern @ 3:30 ET - This game is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago and Illinois looks to replicate their effort from last year when they got the upset win over Northwestern. Truly there is no reason to expect anything different this year. The Illini are off of a loss at Minnesota last week but Illinois outgained the Golden Gophers by nearly a full football field and it was a bit of a deceiving final score as a result. That is helping to offer some line value this week as we get the hungry Illini plus points even though they are in a 'must win' situation as they need this victory for bowl eligibility. Illinois is catching Northwestern at a good time to spring the upset as the Wildcats are off of an upset win of their own (over Wisconsin) last week. The Cats were fortunate to get that win as they certainly benefited from 5 Badgers turnovers in that game. Note that Northwestern has covered just 17 of their last 50 games as a favorite. Underdog Illinois has the better offense in this match-up and I look for the Illini (with the situational advantages as well) to ride that offense to the mild upset victory. Play Illinois plus the points as an *8* selection.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play TCU Horned Frogs -1 vs Baylor @ 7:30 ET - This is another one of those games where the line looks a little funny. Baylor is the significantly higher ranked team in this match-up and yet the Horned Frogs opened up as a small favorite. To me, this looks like another "trap game" situation on a rather highly ranked team. I'll gladly take the hometown Horned Frogs as they are hungry to avenge last season's loss to the Bears. TCU blew a huge lead in that game and ended up losing by a field goal. This is the second year in a row that the Horned Frogs have lost to the Bears by just a field goal and now it's time for a little payback. The Bears are off of a huge performance against Oklahoma State last week and now could fall a little flat here in a match-up that is expected to be a tighter, lower-scoring game. I like having a strong team like TCU here off of a loss. The Horned Frogs lost by a single point to Oklahoma last week. The Horned Frogs may have got caught looking ahead to this game as they certainly haven't forgotten last season's tight loss to Baylor and how that changed the playoff picture last season. The Horned Frogs have won 8 of their last 10 home finales and they've produced a 7-3 ATS mark in those 10 games. Overall, TCU is on a 15-8 ATS run and they get their revenge here on a chilly evening in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Once again, don't fall for the trap line here, take the lower ranked team (with added motivation) in a game where the line is basically a pick'em. Home team payback.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Nebraska Cornhuskers +2.5 vs Iowa @ 3:30 ET - Long-time followers know I like to be anti-public when a line doesn't look right. In this case, one would have to wonder how in the world the undefeated Hawkeyes have been installed as such a small favorite against a Nebraska team that has a losing record on the season. I have said it before and I'll say it again, anything that looks too good to be true usually is too good to be true. In this particular case, this looks like a trap game for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are off of a win over Purdue but they were actually outgained in the game. Also, Nebraska is off of a bye week. Huskers coach Mike Riley had a solid 10-3 ATS mark at Oregon State in when off of a bye week. The Cornhuskers have some extra confidence heading into this match-up as they already up set Michigan State three weeks ago at home and the Huskers then went on the road and dominated Rutgers two weeks ago. With last week's bye, it's undoubtedly true that Nebraska comes into this game in good shape both physically and mentally. The Huskers also have added confidence from knocking off the Hawkeyes in Iowa last year. Don't fall for the trap line here, look for Nebraska to get this much needed sixth win to clinch bowl eligibility as they knock off the 11-0 Hawkeyes. 

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +1 @ Texas @ 7:30 ET - This is a big rivalry game and is now known as the battle for the "Chancellor's Spurs". There is certainly no love lost between these teams and I look for a huge effort from the Red Raiders to atone for bad losses each of the last two years. Certainly the recent history of this series has favored Texas but the Red Raiders have absolutely closed the gap between the two teams. The Longhorns are off of a loss by 18 points in their most recent game and they've been run all over by their opponents in two of their last three games. The Red Raiders have the much more potent offense as they are averaging more than 200 yards more per game than the Horns are this season. Texas Tech's defense has been their weakness as usual but their coming off of a decent effort in their most recent game (against Kansas State) as they held the potent Wildcats to just 123 yards on the ground. The Red Raiders got the win in that game and their momentum roll continues here while the Longhorns are already pondering what "might have been" this season as they need two wins for bowl eligibility but also have Baylor on deck. With that said, the Horns have already 'faced the music' and I expect them to struggle with their motivational level for this game while the Red Raiders are very motivated by recent ugly losses to UT. 

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies -13 vs Ohio University @ 7:30 ET Tuesday - The Huskies can clinch yet another MAC Conference West Division title by getting this victory tonight. Certainly the Bobcats will be gunning for the upset but Ohio University is simply loaded with injuries right now. The Ohio U injury list looks like a MASH unit report. That is going to make it difficult for the Bobcats to hang around in this game because they are 'talking the talk' coming into this game but basically are going to be physically unable to 'walk the walk' in this one. Ohio U, after a very rough stretch, has responded by getting back to back wins in their last two games but those came at home against weak and struggling foes. Now the Bobcats are back on the road where they have lost their last two games by a combined score of 103 to 41. The average margin of defeat in those Ohio U road losses was 31 points per game. Northern Illinois is certainly capable of putting a whipping on the Bobcats in De Kalb, IL Tuesday. The Huskies are a perfect 5-0 at home this season and the average margin of victory has been 19 points per game. After losing their MAC opener this season, Northern Illinois has responded by winning six straight MAC games by an average margin of victory of 17 points per win. The Huskies punishing ground attack will open up the ability to attack the injury-depleted Bobcats secondary down the field with an aerial attack. This one has home rout written all over it. Play Northern Illinois -13 as a *10* Top Play Tuesday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play Washington State -14 vs Colorado @ 10:45 PM ET - Normally one might look to fade a team like the Cougars in this situation. They are off of a big upset win over UCLA last week and the game winning touchdown came very late in the 4th quarter. However, the key here is that the Cougars offense is simply too potent for a weak Buffaloes defense and Colorado just lost their starting QB (Liufau) to injury during last week's game so the Buffs just are not going to be able to keep up in this game. Colorado is going to be starting a redshirt freshman (Apsay) and he'll be making his first start on the road in a big Pac-12 game and facing a Washington team that is a perfect 7-0 ATS in conference games this season. The Buffaloes are dealing with more than just the QB situation here too. Colorado blew a 17-3 lead last week against USC and that guarantees a losing season for the Buffaloes as they dropped to a disappointing 4-7 on the season. It's hard to get up for a game after a disappointing result like that in the prior week. Making things even more difficult for the Buffaloes here is the fact that Washington State will be riding sky high after last week's win. Colorado is not known for traveling well and they have failed to cover 10 of their last 15 away from Boulder. Play Washington State -14 as a *10* Top Play Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Arizona State Sun Devils -7 vs Arizona @ 3:30 ET - Perfect set up here as Arizona is off of their upset win over Utah which came in double overtime and now the Wildcats are ripe to be faded. Arizona State plays this game with revenge from last season's road loss at Arizona. The Sun Devils did knock off the Wildcats by a 58-21 final score the last time Arizona State hosted. This was two seasons ago and I look for another big dominating win here. The Sun Devils catch the Cats off of an upset win and, at the same time, this is the home finale for Arizona State. The Sun Devils have a road game at Cal on deck and ASU still needs one win for bowl eligibility. That said, notching the victory at home this week is of paramount importance. The Sun Devils will ride the momentum of outscoring Washington 27 to 0 to finish last week's game and forcing four turnovers in the Huskies last four possessions. That's the kind of late-season win that can trigger a teams run toward bowl season. The Sun Devils will carry that momentum into this week. Arizona QB Solomon is dealing with an injury issue here and the Wildcats are 9-14 ATS in their last 23 as a road dog. ASU is 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five home finales. They win bak the Territorial Cup in this big rivalry game Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Northern Illinois -2.5 vs Western Michigan @ 8 ET - Northern Illinois has won six straight meetings with Western Michigan. Certainly that makes this a big time revenge game for the Broncos but the Huskies have 'had the Broncos number' as they have covered 14 of the last 18 meetings. Northern Illinois is off a win at Buffalo last Tuesday and they've now won five straight games after a tough 2-3 start to the season. These two teams are battling with Toledo for the top spot in the MAC West and it's going to be tough for the Broncos porous defense to come in and stop the Huskies in DeKalb. Northern Illinois is averaging an incredible 45.2 points per game in their last 5 games. Even though they lost their starting QB to a season-ending injury, the back-up has come in and done a great job. Also, the key tonight could be the running attack as gusty winds are expected throughout the game in DeKalb tonight. The windy conditions are enough to have some impact on the passing attack and this could hurt the Broncos because a ground-based or short-yardage passing game favors the Huskies. So home field and weather is on the side of Northern Illinois in this one. Other than a big win at Ohio U. earlier this season, the Broncos have struggled on the road with 36 points allowed per game in their other three road contests. The Huskies are a perfect 4-0 at home this season and have averaged 51 points per game in their four home games! The Broncos are 1-3 this season and 6-15 the last three seasons (straight up records) when they are an underdog. This bodes well for the Huskies laying the short number here. The Huskies are known for coming up big at this time of year and they have a 7-1 ATS mark in games in weeks 10 through 13 the last 3 seasons combined. Play Northern Illinois -2.5 as an *8* selection Wednesday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play Utah Utes -5.5 @ Arizona @ 10:00 ET - The Wildcats certainly have an impressive offense but their defense is one of the worst in the PAC-12, if not the entire country! Arizona's porous defense is going to have trouble stopping the balanced offensive attack of the Utes. Utah has averaged 37 points per game in their last 7 games and the Utes have given up 24 points or less in 8 of their 9 games this season. Conversely, the Wildcats defense has proven incapable of stopping anyone. Arizona has allowed an average of 40 points per game in their last 7 games. The Cats loss at USC last week marked the 5th time in their last 7 games that Arizona has allowed at least 38 points. This week, I'll trust the much better defense laying the short number on the road in this one. Adding even more value to the road team here is the extra added edge of motivation. The Utes were ranked in the top 20 teams in the country last season when they got thoroughly embarrassed by the Wildcats 42-10 last season. That embarrassing defeat was in Utah and you can bet (literally!) that the Utes have not forgotten it. Now it's payback time and Arizona is on a 3-8 ATS run while Utah is on a sparkling 8-2 ATS run in road games. 

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Temple Owls -2.5 @ South Florida @ 7 ET - The Owls are a very small road favorite here. Certainly Temple is off of a miracle cover last week at SMU but that's really not a reason to fade them in this spot. The Owls were expected to be flat last week when they faced the Mustangs as Temple was off of their huge game against Notre Dame. However, the Owls still managed to get the job done last week and now they are even a better spot to get another road win. The Owls are now 3 weeks away from the big game with Notre Dame. Also, Temple is catching South Florida off of a big upset win. The Bulls knocked off East Carolina last week even though they were a road underdog. Now look for USF to be a little flat after that big win. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points. Temple is 12-5 ATS on the road the last three seasons combined including 4-1 ATS this season. The Owls stifling defense, after relaxing a bit against SMU (because of being off of the ND game), will be back in top form today and will be the difference maker here as they are far superior to the defensive unit of South Florida.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* South Alabama Jaguars -2.5 vs UL-Lafayette @ 7:30 ET Thursday - This is a big revenge game for the Jaguars. Last season these teams met at UL-Lafayette in November and the Jags were embarrassed as they were held to just 9 points in an ugly game for the South Alabama offense. Now it's payback time and what better place to do that than a weeknight game with the ESPN cameras rolling. The Jaguars are fired up and ready here and they come into this game off of a home win that got their confidence going again on offense as they rolled up over 270 yards on the ground again for the 2nd straight game. The Jags will take advantage of a UL-Lafayette team that has struggled to move the ball well quite frequently this season. The Ragin Cajuns have been held to 331 yards or less in 4 of their last 6 games. South Alabama has faced the tougher schedule so far this season as well. This is another key factor that I feel is being overlooked in this match-up. All in all, though UL-Lafayette has the better conference record so far this season and did open up as the favorite in this match-up when the lines first came out, this game did get steamed for all the right reasons and the short fave at home is the play in this one. Note that the Jaguars straight-up record in games where they are favored is 14-6. The long-term straight-up record for UL-Lafayette in games where they are a dog is 28-87. Look for the Jags to tie up the Ragin Cajuns in the Sun Belt Conference standings by getting the home win tonight. Play South Alabama -2.5 as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Bowling Green Falcons -3 @ Western Michigan @ 8 ET Wednesday - The West is known for domination against the East in recent seasons in the MAC. That said, do you think the odds makers have made a mistake here by making the Falcons (from the East) a 3 point favorite over the Broncos (from the West)? You may especially think so because Western Michigan has defeated Bowling Green four straight times and all four victories have come by a margin of double digits. As I have stated many times in the past and will make the statement again right now...the odds makers don't make many mistakes. Do not fall for the "trap" here. The Falcons are favored with good reason despite the series dominance of the Broncos and the overall West dominance in the MAC. Bowling Green is so hungry and so confident and simply a much different team from last season. The locker room chemistry of this team is just different. You can feel it. The Falcons also are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as an away favorite while Western Michigan is on a 4-8-1 ATS run as a home dog. Both teams have fantastic offenses but, in the end, the hunger and motivation of the Falcons (as well as the continued stellar play of QB Johnson) will be the difference maker in this one. Play Bowling Green minus the points as an *8* selection Wednesday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Ohio University Bobcats -6.5 vs Kent State @ 8 ET Tuesday - Very nice spot for Ohio University and the fact this line dropped down below a -7 adds even more value. The Bobcats come into this game with plenty of motivation as they are off of three straight losses and they need a win for bowl eligibility and to get their season back on track. Even though the Bobcats have averaged scoring just 18.3 points per game in their last three games, their offensive production has been better than what the points on the scoreboard would lead you to believe. Ohio University has gained at least 354 yards in each of their last four games. They eclipsed the 400 yard mark in 3 of those games with one of the totals (in their most recent loss) eclipsing the 500 yard mark! The fact is that the Bobcats can move the ball and they have a solid offense. The same can not be said for the Golden Flashes. Kent State is averaging less than 300 yards per game this season and their anemic offense will simply be unable to keep up with the Bobcats in this tough road game for the Golden Flashes. Kent State is averaging less than 14 points per game in their last 7 games! Play Ohio University -6.5 as an *8* selection Tuesday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play LSU Tigers +7 @ Alabama @ 8 ET - I love the "me against the world" attitude that the Tigers have coming into this game. Even though LSU is the higher ranked and undefeated team coming into this match-up, Alabama is still "the team to beat" if you're one of Louisiana's top recruits and passed up on the chance to play for The Crimson Tide. With that said, for LSU, this game is all about earning that respect and getting the big signature win that has eluded them in recent match-ups with Nick Saban and Company. The fact the Tigers got fullback John David Moore back healthier for this game is a key. He will help open up even bigger holes for the fantastic running of LSU's Leonard Fournette. The Tigers running attack this season has been insanely strong all year and this will allow them to have an edge in time of possession and control the clock a bit against a dangerous Alabama team. LSU, of course, would like to wear down the defensive line of The Crimson Tide as well as keep the dangerous Alabama offense off of the field. I expect that they will do just that. The Tigers do have the more explosive offense of these two teams and the LSU defense ranks very close to the lofty level achieved by the Alabama defense. In a smash-mouth game with such huge implications, I love having a big dog that runs the ball extremely well plus plays solid defense. The Crimson Tide have benefited greatly from turnovers in couple of their games and that is unlikely to be a huge help for Alabama in this game. The Tigers have only turned the ball over TWICE this entire seasons. By comparison, The Crimson Tide have been averaging two turnovers per game! Play LSU plus the points as a *10* Top Play Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Nebraska +6.5 vs Michigan State @ 7 ET - The whole world, of course, seems to be lining up on undefeated Michigan State here. Of course that has driven the line all the way from a 4.5 up to as high as a 6.5 in some spots. The line is likely to start coming back down as some sharp money starts to come back in on the Nebraska side. For the Cornhuskers, this is truly their best shot at making some noise this season. They've had a tough year, they are down in the standings but they can certainly gain some notoriety by knocking off the undefeated Spartans this week. While that may seem far-fetched based on their poor straight-up record, do note just how close Nebraska has been in so many of their games this season. The Huskers SU record is 3-6 but 4 of the 6 losses have come by a field goal or less and a fifth loss came by just 5 points. Their only ugly loss this season came last week against Purdue but turnovers sure had a lot to do with that. With QB Tommy Armstrong expected back this week I expect the turnovers to be greatly reduced and I expect Lincoln Nebraska to be rocking for this huge opportunity Saturday that is allowing them to make some noise in the Big Ten. The Huskers, arguably, have the better offense in this match-up and their defense (last week notwithstanding) is certainly not that far off of the pace set by the Spartans. Michigan State is just 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season and those struggles continue here with an outright upset a distinct possibility as the Spartans come out a little sluggish after their bye week. Play Nebraska plus the points as an *8* selection.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Duke Blue Devils +8 @ North Carolina @ Noon ET - The Tar Heels can always expect a fight from the Blue Devils when they meet as the rivals have plenty of emotion for this big game. However, this year's version of the battle for the Victory Bell is likely to have even higher emotions than usual for Duke. That's because after rallying for what looked like a sure win over Miami last week, the Blue Devils gave up a last second kickoff return for a TD. The deciding touchdown was truly questionable and Duke feels a bit jaded, to say the least, about the loss. Look for the Blue Devils to be playing with a little extra 'edge' in their game Saturday. This rivalry used to be confined to basketball due to the large talent gap between these schools in football. However, in recent years, the Blue Devils have closed that gap substantially and I would not be surprised if they spring the upset here. In comparing the two teams Duke has the better defense. The Blue Devils are on an incredible 12-1 SU (and 11-2 ATS) run in road games. North Carolina is on an ugly 2-6 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. Play on Duke plus the points as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Missouri Tigers +8.5 vs Mississippi State @ 9:00 ET - The Tigers are a classic "ugly dog" in this spot. As bad as Missouri's offense has been this season, their defense certainly has been stellar and I look for that strong D to be the key to them staying inside this big number Thursday. The Tigers have had only one loss by more than 8 points this entire season. While the Bulldogs are allowing 375 yards per game this season, the Tigers are allowing nearly 100 yards less per game this season. Mississippi State certainly has the much more potent offense in this match-up but it's projected to be a low-scoring game and that type of grudge match does not bode well for the Bulldogs. They have gone 2-10 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Tigers have gone 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points the last 3 seasons. Missouri also is 8-0 ATS in games in the month of November the past two seasons. The Tigers are also 5-1 ATS when off of a bye week. Play Missouri plus the points as an *8* selection.

Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Kansas State Wildcats +17.5 vs Baylor @ 7:30 ET - The powerhouse Baylor Bears are in trouble. The loss of quarterback Seth Russell is a huge blow. In steps Jarrett Stidham and as talented as the young man is he certainly can't step in and be a Seth Russell right off of the bat. His experience so far this season has come in blowout games that were already decided and this will be a lot of pressure for him to have on his shoulders tonight. Stidham is a true frosh and he's being asked to go on the road against a well-coached (Bill Snyder) Wildcats team that, like the Bears, is also off of a bye week and Kansas State will be fully prepared for the only game left on their schedule where they can truly make a statement on the national scene. Every one of the rest of the Wildcats games comes against teams with at least 4 losses on the season. Kansas State themselves also has four losses so this game is truly their "national championship" for the season. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS when off of a bye week and Snyder will have his troops ready. You can bet on that...literally. Play Kansas State plus the points as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach NCF *10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes +13 @ Duke @ 7 ET - I look for the Hurricanes to be sparked by both the coaching situation as well as the QB situation. The Canes are certainly fired up to perform better under their interim head coach after they suffered the worst defeat in school history last week with their 58-0 loss! After being thoroughly embarrassed, look for the Canes to respond in a huge way this week as nothing would be better for the university to forget about an ugly loss then to go and knock off an upstart Duke team. The Blue Devils, long known for their basketball prowess, have certainly improved greatly on the football field but you'd better believe this gets under the skin of the Hurricanes! Miami wants to resume their supremacy on the football field. The Canes did win by 12 last season at home against the Blue Devils but they lost by 18 the prior season at Duke. It's time for a little payback and note that the QB change now has them with a more mobile and athletic QB under center. This is a key because of the way the offensive line has struggled this season but I do look for a very physical game in the trenches on both sides of the ball for Miami. The Canes are fired up and can't wait to take the field after getting drilled 58 to 0 last week. An outright win would not surprise and certainly the Canes should stay inside this inflated number this week. Play Miami plus the points as a *10* Top Play Saturday.