01-01-19 |
Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State |
|
27-22 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (269) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (270). Iowa (8-4) has won two straight games with their 31-28 win over Nebraska to close out their regular season back on November 23rd as a 7.5-point favorite. Mississippi State (8-4) has won two games in a row as well with their 35-3 win at Ole Miss back on November 22nd as a 12.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Tampa Bay in the Outback Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State preceded their big rivalry game win over the Rebels in the Egg Bowl with a 52-6 win over Arkansas. But the Bulldogs may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference rivals. Mississippi State has won four of their last five games while covering the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs are led by their defense that is tops in the nation by allowing only 12.0 PPG and just 268.4 total YPG. They have held their last three opponents to only 237.7 YPG — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after holding their last three opponents to no better than 250 YPG. Furthermore, while Mississippi State has allowed just a field goal in the first-half of two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after not allowing more than 7 first-half points in two straight games. The problem for this Bulldogs team is that when they are playing away from home, they are scoring only 15.2 PPG while averaging just 317.6 total YPG. Their offense is too one-dimensional as they are averaging just 175.6 passing YPG behind senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald which ranks 110th in the nation. Mississippi State has committed no more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 major bowl games played in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field when the favorite. Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a narrow win at home by 3 points or less. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. This Iowa team has an outstanding defense themselves that ran 11th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the FBS by giving up only 289.7 total YPG. Their defensive line has racked up an impressive 28.5 combined sacks. This strong defense helps them play well on the road — the Hawkeyes are outscoring teams by +19.6 PPG when playing away from Iowa City while out-gaining these opponents by +83.0 net YPG. Iowa has also outscored their last three opponents by +20.7 PPG while out-gaining them by +71.7 net YPG. Junior QB Nate Stanley will not have the services of his star tight end Noah Gant who is skipping this game to stay healthy for the NFL draft — but he still has Mackey Award winner T.J. Hockenson as another tight end target which is not too shabby. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten.
FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take an underdog getting around 7 points in an expected low-adoring game offers us nice value. Mississippi State’s lack of a potent passing attack should help head coach Kirk Ferentz oversee a defensive scheme that will limit the Bulldogs’ scoring chances which will keep the Hawkeyes in this game. 20* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (269) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Michigan State +3 v. Oregon |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Michigan State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season on November 24th with their 14-10 win over Rutgers as a 24.5-point favorite. Oregon (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 55-15 win at Oregon State on November 23rd as an 18-point favorite. These two teams meeting Santa Clara’s Levi Stadium for the newly named Redox Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State had sky-high expectations this season with nineteen starters back from a team that went 10-3 last season which culminated in a 42-17 drubbing of a Washington State team in the Holiday Bowl who then defeated these Ducks this season by double-digits. Injuries on offense held Sparty back this year with quarterback Brian Lewerke and running back L.J. Scott both battling injuries all season. Both players have had five weeks to heel and both should as healthy as they have been in months for this bowl game as the Spartans look to end their season on a high note. There is little wrong with the Michigan State defense that ranked 12th in the nation by allowing just 18.0 PPG while also ranking 14th in the FBS by allowing their opponents to average just 311.5 total YPG. Sparty was also 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to -106 YPG below their season offensive average. They limited Ohio State to just 347 yards of offense — so they should be able to contain Justin Herbert and this Ducks’ offense with the few weeks of preparation. Michigan State has allowed only four offensive touchdowns in their last five games. After shutting down the Buckeyes offense, the Spartans then limited Nebraska to 248 yards of offense before allowing Rutgers to gain a mere 217 yards in their final regular season game. Michigan State is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This defense travels as well as they only allowed 13.2 PPG in their five games away from East Lansing while limiting those opponents to just 294.0 YPG. The Spartans out-gained their five opponents on the road by +64.0 net YPG. Head coach Mark Dantoni should have his team ready to play this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games when played on a neutral field. Oregon has been reliably inconsistent as of late. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Oregon is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks offense generated 510 yards against Beavers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. This Oregon team was riding high after they pulled off an upset win over Washington — but then they fell to earth with double-digit losses to Washington State and Arizona while allowing an offensively-challenged Utah team score 32 points against them. In their five games away from home, the Ducks were out-gained by -24.8 net YPG. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when favored by no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State is a very physical team with five weeks to rest up and heal for this game. The team with the closest profile to their style of play that Oregon played was Stanford — and the Cardinal defeated the Ducks by a 38-31 score. Dantoni relishes the underdog role for his Spartans. His teams have covered the point spread in their last five bowl games as the dog with Dantoni leading his team to the straight-up upset win in those last four bowl contests. Expect another upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB Bowl Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Stanford |
|
13-14 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (260). Pittsburgh (7-6) has lost two straight games after their 42-10 loss to Clemson as a 27-point underdog on December 1st in the ACC Championship Game. Stanford (8-4) has won three straight games with their 23-13 win at California on December 1st as a 3-point favorite. These two teams meet in El Paso, Texas in the Sun Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh had won four straight games to put themselves in position to play for the ACC Championship before a 21-point loss at Miami preceded their blowout loss to the Tigers. Head coach Pat Narduzzi should have his team ready to play in this game as his team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Kenny Pickett suffered an embarrassing game against the outstanding Clemson defense as he completed only 4 of 16 passes for a mere 8 yards. That eye-popping stat line should have served as motivation for Pickett to work even harder in bowl practices for this game. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to pass for at least 75 yards in their last game. While the play of Narduzzi’s defense remains a disappointment given the reputation he established as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State, the young talent on that unit should have benefitted from the extra weeks of bowl preparation. Pittsburgh saw their nine-year bowl streak snapped last year so this group should have something to prove in this game. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last games after a point spread win. Frankly, the Cardinal was fortunate to pull off that final win over the Golden Bears as they were out-gained by -23 net yards. A +2 net turnover margin helped to make up that difference in yardage — but Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where they had a +2 or better turnover margin. This is not a typical team for head coach David Shaw in his eighth year with the program. This Cardinal group ranked 122nd in the FBS by averaging just 108.3 rushing YPG. Superstar running back Bryce Love battled injuries all season — and he has decided to skip this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Stanford is very vulnerable on pass defense as they allowed 274.7 passing YPG which ranked 121st in the FBS. And when this team played away from Palo Alto, the Cardinal were out-gained by -90.3 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation has to be questioned for this underachieving Stanford team as they will be playing their third straight bowl game in a second-tier contest hosted in the State of Texas. This is the Cardinal’s second appearance at the Sun Bowl in the last three years as well. Pitt is motivated to redeem themselves from two bad losses to end the season — and the opportunity to knock off a blue-blood like Stanford has to be appealing. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Pittsburgh-Stanford CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
31-35 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (258). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning their last two games of the season culminating in their 41-20 blowout win over Marshall on December 1st as a 3.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (10-2) has won four of their last five games with their 56-6 blowout win over East Carolina as a 15.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Annapolis in the Military Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech ended the season with just twelve starters back from last year’s 9-4 season. Three-fourths of the incoming roster was just freshman and sophomores — so depth was very thin. Unfortunately for the Hokies, this team was hit hard with injuries including three starters on defense and their incumbent starting quarterback all being lost for the season. A handful of other contributors were also dismissed by third-year head coach Justin Fuente. This team could have folded up the tent and gone home to end their season after upsetting a solid Virginia team at the end of November — but this team played hard with the opportunity to play the Thundering Herd in a rescheduled game from earlier in the season and they earned the opportunity to play in this game. I think the extra week of bowl preparation will be of enormous benefit for Fuente defensive coordinator Bud Foster further develop this young team with the benefit of tailoring their practices to a specific opponent in the Bearcats. So, throw out the Hokies underwhelming offensive and defensive numbers for this one. Virginia Tech disappointed with six straight point spread losers before covering the point spread in their final two games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Virginia Tech is seeing the continued development of their 6’4 junior quarterback Ryan Willis who completed 18 of 26 passes for 312 with four touchdown passes against Marshall. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Virginia Tech has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Furthermore, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of December which is good evidence of the continued development this coaching staff sees in their players. Cincinnati has enjoyed a surprising 10-win season after only winning eight of their previous twenty-four games over the last two seasons. They fit the blueprint of a team happy to reach a bowl game for the first time in three seasons and may let up a bit when reading that they are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game. As it is, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Cincinnati has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. The Bearcats average 34.9 PPG and 458.2 total YPG this season which is 25th and 24th in the nation respectively — but those numbers plummeted in their six games away from home to just 25.3 PPG and 393.8 total YPG marks. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Additionally, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games — and they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December. Lastly, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech certainly played the more difficult schedule this season with the ACC being a better conference than the American Athletic Conference. Expect the Hokies to be an improved team this afternoon after a month of additional practice — they should (at least) keep this game close. 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Cincinnati ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Oklahoma v. Alabama -14 |
Top |
34-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Alabama (13-0) won the SEC Championship Game back on December 1st with their 35-28 win over Georgia as an 11-point favorite. Oklahoma (12-1) won the Big 12 Championship Game with their 39-27 win versus Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Miami, Florida in the Orange Bowl for the second Semifinals showdown in the College Football Playoff.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The Sooners were playing with revenge on their minds when facing the Longhorns to begin this month — but I suspect they get exposed tonight for their subpar play on defense. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. These are very ominous signs when considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The theory for Oklahoma backers is that they will simply outscore Bama in this game. Heisman Trophy winner Kyle Murray led the nation’s number one statistical offense in the nation — and he passed for 379 yards in their win over Texas. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Murray may not have his best target available — or at full strength — given the foot injury to Marquise Brown that he suffered in the Big 12 Championship that did not look very encouraging at the time. These circumstances are not encouraging given that this is a football team that has is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 bowl games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against SEC opponents. Alabama played their closest game of the season in their comeback win over the Bulldogs. Head coach Nick Saban typically gets his team to respond with a strong effort after a game where he can show them the bad game tape. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road game after a narrow victory of 7 points or less against a conference rival. The theory that Oklahoma will simply outscore Bama has to account for the fact that the Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide did allow 454 yards against Georgia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Alabama did take a step back on defense this season after losing eight starters along with their top six defensive backs from last year’s National Championship team. But this remains a unit loaded with blue-chippers (as opposed to Oklahoma) who should benefit from the extra week of bowl practices. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has suspended a few players — but they have the depth on the offensive line to sustain those losses for this game. Tua Tagovailoa seems to be 80-85% with his foot injury that he suffered against Georgia. I would worry about these issues more if they were playing a better defensive unit. Jaylen Hurts proved in the SEC Championship Game that he is willing and able to provide this team a spark if Tagovailoa is not effective. Ultimately, I think the Alabama defense will be able to generate at least some defensive stops — and I don’t think Oklahoma can slow down the Tide’s powerful offense. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Notre Dame +12.5 v. Clemson |
|
3-30 |
Loss |
-119 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (256). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH PLUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This is a team that raised their level of play on offense when head coach Brian Kelly elevated sophomore Ian Book to be his starting quarterback as he completed 70% of his passes while averaging 8.84 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt to give the offense a legitimate deep threat. Clemson has been vulnerable against vertical passing attacks — they have allowed Texas A&M to pass for 430 yards against them along with South Carolin to pass for 510 yards. The Irish have the size in the wide receiving corps with 6’4 Miles Boykin, 6’4 Chase Claypool and tight end Alize Mack all have size advantages over a smaller Clemson secondary. The Irish have averaged at 462 Yards-Per-Game in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in three straight games. Notre Dame is ab outstanding defensive team that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 17.3 PPG — and they also ranked 20th in the FBS by giving up just 331.5 total YPG. This team has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points all season. The key to their efforts has been to minimize big plays — they gave up only five plays that accounted for more than 40 yards this season. They also have a stout run defense that limits their opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They have rushed for 301 and 350 yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. Their defense did hold Pittsburgh to an incredible 8 passing yards in the ACC Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. That unit will miss Dexter Lawrence after the 340-lb defensive tackle was suspended for this game for a positive PED test. Moving forward, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against opponents outside the ACC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field laying 10.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame has played a challenging schedule this season and answered the bell every time. Their good defense, as well as their advantage with the height of their receiving targets, should help them keep this game very close. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Clemson ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
South Carolina v. Virginia +5 |
|
0-28 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (252) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (251). THE SITUATION: Virginia (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 34-31 overtime loss on the road at Virginia Tech as a 4-point favorite on November 23rd. South Carolina (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 28-3 win over Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Charlotte for the Belk Bowl this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia endured a brutal ending of their season by losing their last two games on the road in overtime with setbacks to the Hokies and Georgia Tech. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall should have his team ready to play as the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. Virginia has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two straight games that were played on the road. The Cavaliers’ offense did average 6.33 Yards-Per-Play against Virginia Tech — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.2 YPP in their last game. Virginia plays good defense which is typical of a Mendenhall-coached team. The Caves rank 27th in the nation by allowing just 21.8 PPG — and they also rank 23rd in the FBS by allowing only 337.2 total YPG. This strong defensive play helped them out-gain their opponents by +22.8 net YPG when playing on the road. Virginia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. South Carolina enter this game undermanned with a host of injuries along with their top wide receiver Deebo Samuel sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Gamecocks held the Zips to just 260 yards of offense in their victory to begin the month — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. South Carolina had covered the point spread in their previous two games before putting on the brakes at halftime against Akron after taking a 28-3 lead to then fail to cover the -28.5 point spread. But the Gamecocks has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Defense remains a concern for this team who allowed their last three Power-Five conference opponents to average a whopping 629 YPG. They are being out-gained when playing away from home by -29.6 PPG due to their defense that surrenders 499.8 total YPG. Not surprisingly, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field as the favorite. Run defense is the primary concern for this team as they rank 93rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 194.5 rushing YPG. To make matters worse for the Cavaliers, they are missing two of their key players on defense due to injuries to defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Keisean Nixon. Virginia’s solid running back Jordan Ellis who rushed for 920 yards this season should be able to find space to move the football. The Gamecocks will rely on the arm of QB Jake Bentley — but he faces a tough Cavaliers’ pass defense that ranks 14th in the nation by allowing only 180.1 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia is undervalued in this spot given those two overtime losses. The Cavaliers play the better defense — and they face a Gamecocks team that is missing some pieces. Expect a close game. 10* CFB South Carolina-Virginia ABC-TV Special with the Virginia Cavaliers (252) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Syracuse v. West Virginia +3 |
|
34-18 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 5:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (244) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (243). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (8-3) has lost their last two games with their 59-56 loss to Oklahoma as a 3-point underdog back on November 23rd. Syracuse (9-3) enters this game coming off a 42-21 upset win at Boston College as a 6-point underdog back on November 24th. These two teams trade to Orlando, Florida to take part in the Camping World Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The big news with this West Virginia team relates to the players who will not be playing in this bowl game. The Mountaineers’ offense will be without quarterback Will Grier along with their star left tackle Yodney Cajuste and slot wide receiver Gary Jennings who have chosen to not play due to nagging injuries and the prospects of staying healthy for the NFL draft in the spring. Their absence explains why West Virginia opened as a 7.5-point favorite but now find themselves as 3-point underdogs. Frankly, those players are not worth the 10-point swing with this point spread. In head coach Dana Holgorsen, we trust — at least when it comes to the offensive side of the football. Frankly, I always found Grier a bit overrated as a quarterback. Holgorsen’s offensive system is the star of this program and he has a comer four-star recruit in Miami (FL) transfer in Jack Allison to step in as his starting quarterback after getting all the first-team reps in practice. The West Virginia offense will be just fine. And this team should play hard as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight up loss. Furthermore, the Mountaineers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. West Virginia almost pulled the upset against a Sooners’ team that advanced to the College Football Playoffs. Oklahoma scored two touchdowns from fumble recoveries that made the winning difference in that game. The Mountaineers are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big 12. Syracuse may be due for a big letdown after the 21-point upset victory over the Eagles. The Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after an upset victory by at least two touchdowns as an underdog. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. Furthermore, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after an upset win over an ACC conference rival. And while Syracuse out-gained Boston College by +219 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +225 yards. Pass defense is an area of concern for this team as they ranked 112th in the nation by allowing 263.0 passing YPG. That is a big concern when facing a Holgorsen offense (who will be calling the plays in this game after offensive coordinator took the head coaching job at Texas State). The Orange also struggled on the road where they were out-gained by -46.0 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Syracuse will be playing in their first bowl game since 2014 — so this may be a group that is just happy to be here. West Virginia should be feisty after their loss to the Sooners while motivated to make a good start to next season with this program moving forward from Grier and company. 10* CFB Syracuse-West Virginia ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (244) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (243). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-18 |
Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +3 |
Top |
3-35 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
Take the Baylor Bears plus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores in the Texas Bowl. Baylor (6-6) looks to build off their 35-24 win at Texas Tech in their last game as a 6-point underdog. The Bears got their offense going by generating 478 yards of offense in that game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games in the month of December. Vanderbilt (6-6) has won three of their last four games with their 38-13 win over Tennessee to close out their regular season. The Commodores held the Volunteers to just 139 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, while Vanderbilt did not force a turnover in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Take Baylor plus the points. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports CA$HED the Denver-Oakland Under in the NFL on Monday in their last Football Totals play which continued their 19 of 28 (68%) FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR! Now after passing in CFB Bowl Totals plays yesterday, Frank’s TOP THURSDAY TOTAL is with the Vandy-Baylor O/U winner on ESPN at 9 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!
|
12-27-18 |
Duke +3.5 v. Temple |
|
56-27 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (235) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (236). Duke (7-5) stumbled into the postseason losing their last two games after their ugly 59-7 upset loss to Wake Forest as a 9.5-point favorite. Temple (8-4) has won three straight games after their 57-7 win at UConn as a 32-point favorite. These two meet in the hotbed that is Shreveport, Louisiana for the Independence Bowl this afternoon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: Duke’s loss to the Demon Deacons was preceded by a 35-6 loss at Clemson the previous week. Those bad losses make these Blue Devils pretty unappetizing to many bettors — but this team has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing their last two contests by at least four touchdowns. Injuries took their toll on this team particularly on the defensive side of the football. Duke held their opponents to just 341 total YPG in their first seven games but then surrendered 529 YPG over their last five games. While the Blue Devils are still banged up on defense, the extra weeks of preparation allows teams to coach-up the younger players as these football teams make the turn to beginning the groundwork for their next season. There is no one better in the business in coaching up his players than Duke’s head coach David Cutcliffe who is finishing his eleventh season running this football program. It is telling that the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Duke surrendered over 500 YPG over their last three contests — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last three games. The Blue Devils are due for some luck when it comes to the bouncing-ball that plays a big role in the turnover game. Duke has not forced a turnover in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games. Additionally, the Blue Devils are a decisive 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Temple will be playing with an interim head coach with their special teams/tight end coach Ed Foley handling these duties for Geoff Collins who left the program for the Georgia Tech job. While predicting how this will impact the morale of the players when a head coach departs is often just a guessing game, it is safe to say the Owls do not benefit from this turnover in leadership. Temple grounded out 293 rushing yards in their last game against the Huskies — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last contest. The Owls have used three quarterbacks this season due to injuries and poor play — they all combined to throw 17 touchdown passes along with 18 interceptions. It looks like sophomore Anthony Russo will be healthy to get the start this afternoon — but he has thrown 13 of the team’s interceptions. Run defense is also an issue for this team as they allowed their opponents to average 190.3 rushing YPG which is 90th in the nation — and Duke is a run-first team. Furthermore, the Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when played on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: Temple had a better record this season but faced inferior competition than Duke given their American Athletic Conference schedule. Cutcliffe will have his team prepared to play as he always does in bowl games — and he had the leverage of imposing his will on a group of players who played poorly in their last two games. Expect a close game that the Blue Devils have an opportunity to win — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Duke-Temple ESPN Special with the Duke Blue Devils (235) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (236). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-18 |
Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 |
|
34-10 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (232) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (231). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-6) closed out their regular season winning two of their last three games with a 37-15 upset win at Wisconsin as a 12-point underdog on November 24th. Georgia Tech (7-5) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on November 24th with their 45-21 loss at Georgia as a 17-point underdog. These two teams meet for the first time ever in Detroit’s Ford Field in the Quick Lane Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS MINUS THE POINTS: While this is the first bowl game for this team in head coach P.J. Fleck’s coaching tenure at Minnesota, there are reasons to believe the team already won their “proverbial” bowl game when they pulled the upset over Big Ten West powerhouse Wisconsin to close out their season. Two of their best players in linebacker Blake Ashman and offensive lineman Donnell Greene have opted to skip this game to stay healthy for the NFL draft in the spring. Fleck has also suspended at least one player for this game after violating team rules — and because he is being cagey on this front, we cannot dismiss the possibility that a rash of suspensions may be pending tonight with the head coach looking to next season. As it is, the Golden Gophers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by at least 20 points. Minnesota is also 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Despite their upset win in Madison against an injured Badgers team, the Golden Gophers were not a very good team on the road where they were just 1-4 while being outscored by -14.4 PPG. Their defense surrendered 520.0 Yards-Per-Game on the road which led to them being out-gained by -140.8 net YPG away from home. Minnesota also struggled against the run this season which is not a good sign when facing this Georgia Tech spread triple option that led the nation by averaging 334.9 rushing YPG. The Golden Gophers surrendered 430 yards to Illinois and another 383 rushing yards to Nebraska en route to them being routed by 49 combined points to both teams. They allowed their opponents to average 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry when playing away from home. Minnesota has covered the point spread in two of their last three games but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Georgia Tech has not covered the point spread in two of their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. The Yellow Jackets managed only 219 total yards in their last game against the Bulldogs — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to gain at least 225 yards in their last game. Georgia Tech’s ground game travels which helps explain why they out-gained their opponents by +87.2 net YPG when playing on the road. The Yellow Jackets offense has been cranking it up as of late as they have scored 144 combined points in their last four games. Additionally, much like the speculation about who will have the home crowd edge in a bowl game that will have less than 20,000 in attendance in a cavernous large stadium (as if that crowd noise will play a lick of difference then in the game), there is the conventional wisdom that the Yellow Jackets underachieve in bowl games since their opponents have extra time to prepare for their unique offense. Yet Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Paul Johnson has plenty of wrinkles he can add to his spread triple option with the extra weeks of preparation. This will be the eleven year veteran at Georgia Tech his last game as a head coach with his decision to retire after this game. Expect plenty of surprises from this team. Most importantly, his players should be very motivated to play for their head coach in his final game and have him leave as a winner. Don’t be surprised if this one is a blowout. 10* CFB Minnesota-Georgia Tech ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (232) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (231). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-18 |
Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii |
Top |
31-14 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (227) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (228). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (7-5) has lost their last two games after closing out their regular season on November 24th with a 30-15 upset loss at Western Kentucky as a 10.5-point favorite. Hawai’i (8-5) has won two straight games after they pulled off a 31-30 upset victory at San Diego State on November 24th as an 18-point underdog. The Rainbow Warriors are the host team in the Hawai’i Bowl taking place a couple days earlier than it’s traditional Christmas Eve or day spot.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): If there is one coach I am not going to worry too much about having his team ready to play even in Hawai’i over winter break, it is Skip Holtz who has led Louisiana Tech to win all four of their bowl games under his guidance in the previous five seasons with the program. Even better, the average winning margin for the Bulldogs under Holts has been by -20.5 PPG. After this team lost three of their last four games of the regular season, this is a business trip for this team. As it is, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after a loss by at least 10 points on their home field. The Bulldogs did out-gain the Hilltoppers by a decisive +92 net yards in that contest while holding them to just 288 net yards but lost the Time of Possession battle by having the ball for only 25:57 minutes of that game. Little worries of that History Repeating itself tonight against this pass-happy Warriors offense. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Louisiana Tech ranks 32nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 350.9 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 298.0 total YPG. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker will benefit from the extra few weeks to prepare for the unique relic of an offense that Hawai’i operates with their old Run-and-Shoot resurrected by their third-year head coach Nick Rolovich. Four close wins decided by one scoring possession for this Rainbow Warriors team obscures the fact that they were out-scored and out-gained in yardage by their opponents this season. They do have the home field advantage for this game but despite their 5-2 home record, they are only outscoring their visitors by 1.0 PPG. Over their last three games, Hawai’i was outscored by -10.3 PPG. They did generate 516 total yards against a collapsing San Diego State defense to end the season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Louisiana Tech should be able to move the ball at will against this suspect Rainbow Warriors defense that ranked 101st in the nation by allowing 438.7 total YPG. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games against teams with a winning record — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.
FINAL TAKE: Home field advantage is tempting for the Rainbow Warriors tonight — but that edge only goes so far. A motivated Bulldogs team that is well-coached with a very good defense should overwhelm this Hawai’i team that has become too one dimensional on offense with the Run-and-Shoot gimmick. 25* CFB Bailout Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (227) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-22-18 |
Wake Forest +3.5 v. Memphis |
|
37-34 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (221) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (222). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning two of their final three games after their 59-7 upset win at Duke as a 9.5-point underdog on November 24th. Memphis (8-5) saw their four-game winning snapped in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game with their 56-41 loss to Central Florida back on December 1st where they were 1-point underdogs. These two teams meet in Alabama for the Birmingham Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: It might be difficult for Memphis to pick themselves off the mat for this second-tier bowl game after they blew a 38-21 halftime to once again lose the Knights. There has been plenty of attrition over the last couple of weeks with three assistant coaches (including the offensive and defensive coordinator) taking new jobs and running back Darrell Henderson opting not to play in this game. The Tigers still have talent at running back — but it will be hard to replace his 1909 rushing yards that resulted in 22 touchdowns and an 8.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. Memphis has covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. Memphis generated 583 yards of offense against UCF after gaining 610 yards in their previous game against Houston — but the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 525 yards in two straight games. This is a team that ranked 92nd in the nation by allowing 31.5 PPG — and that number increased to 40.3 PPG in their six games away from home along with 513.0 Yards-Per-Game that they allowed their opponents to generate. This porous defense makes them precarious favorites — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the month of December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 63 combined points were scored. The encouraging aspect from this Demon Deacons team down the stretch was the improved play of their defense. Over their last three games, their run defense got significantly better as they allowed only 307 combined rushing yards and held opposing rushers to just a 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Blue Devils managed only 105 rushing yards and 145 passing yards against this defense. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. Wake held a 31-7 halftime lead in that game as well — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after not allowing more than 7 points in the first-half of their last game. The offense is clicking by the continued improvement of sophomore quarterback Jamie Newman who took over under center after freshman Sam Hartman suffered a season-ending leg injury. He oversees an offense that ranks 31st in the nation by averaging 443.2 total YPG — and the Demon Deacons have scored 33.0 PPG over their last three games. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field where they are underdogs. Together, these team trends produce our specific 145-53 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest played the more difficult schedule with a full tilt of ACC opponents. The Demon Deacons will not have their star sophomore slot receiver in Greg Dortch who is out with an injured finger but their run-oriented spread offense should still move the ball against the Tigers defense. 10* CFB Wake Forest-Memphis ESPN Special with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (221) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-18 |
BYU v. Western Michigan +12.5 |
|
49-18 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (220) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (219). THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (7-5) enters the postseason coming off a 28-21 upset win over Northern Illinois as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 20th. BYU (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 24th with their 35-27 loss at Utah as a 10.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home. And while some teams may suffer an emotional letdown after an upset victory, I suspect that victory for this Broncos team will be galvanizing for them. Second year head coach Tim Lester fired his defensive coordinator before that game against the Huskies and the result was his defense played their best game of the season by only allowing 262 yards of offense. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory as a home underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling an upset over a conference rival. Western Michigan dominated that Northern Illinois team that then went on to upset Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as they out-gained them by +137 net yards. The Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. The extra weeks of bowl practice should help in the continued development of freshman quarterback Kaleb Eleby who has started the last three games for the injured Jon Wassink. Eleby completed 19 of 35 passes for 285 yards against a stout Huskies defense — and he is completing 64.5% of his passes this season. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after passing for at least 285 yards in their last game. And in their last 17 games on the road after losing three of their last four games, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 14 of these contests. BYU has questionable motivation issues after blowing a 20-0 halftime lead against their in-state rivals to close out the season. Losing that game cost the Cougars a more attractive bowl site — now they travel north to bland Boise to play a team not representing a Power Five conference. This BYU team has a host of distractions as well with some players out getting married with others out due to injuries and a number of players taking exams while on this trip. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week. They also have a freshman at quarterback with Zach Wilson starting the last six games for the team when he was tapped by head coach Kalani Sitake to take over as the starter. BYU relies on their defense as they grind out games with an offense dedicated to running the ball and winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. While that is a consistent way to be be successful and stay competitive in all their games, it is not a reliable way to cover double-digit point spreads. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. Together, these team trends produce our specific 74-24 ATS combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first bowl game for Western Michigan under head coach Lester after they were one of the few teams passed over despite having six wins last season. They should be motivated to make a statement in this game to close out their season. BYU has hire expectations as an independent modeling their program as the Notre Dame of the west. BYU’s defense may be the difference in this game — but they are laying way too many points as a double-digit favorite. 10* CFB BYU-Western Michigan ESPN Special with the Western Michigan Broncos (220) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-18 |
Florida International +7.5 v. Toledo |
|
35-32 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida International Golden Panthers (217) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (218). FIU (8-4) looks to bounce-back from their 28-25 loss to Marshall as a 3.5-point underdog on November 25th. Toledo (7-5) has won two straight games after their 51-13 win over Central Michigan as a 19-point favorite on November 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: FIU has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Golden Panthers will be without their starting quarterback James Morgan in this game as he has been declared out with an injury he sustained in that final game against the Thundering Herd. Junior Christian Alexander has experience under center this season and he will get the start tonight. He benefits from getting most of the starter’s reps in bowl practice — and he is the likely starter next season. He will also be protected by a good offensive line that allowed only 10 sacks this season. The Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. FIU has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as an underdog. And while they have played five straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Toledo has played two straight games Over the Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after playing at least two straight Overs. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points. This Toledo team has a leaky defense which makes them precarious favorites now when laying at least a touchdown. They rank 94th in the nation by allowing 430.1 total YPG — and they are giving up 30.2 PPG. When playing away from home, the Rockets are being out-gained by -21.6 Yards-Per-Game. This is also a team playing with their second-string quarterback with sophomore Eli Peters now their starter after the season-ending injury to Mitchell Guadagni last month. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against non-conference opponents. Lastly, the Rockets are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with more than two weeks of rest and preparation.
FINAL TAKE: I am adding this as a late play given the line movement on Toledo that has elevated the Golden Panthers to an underdog getting (at least) 7 points in most spots. The FIU offense will be fine with Alexander — especially against this porous Rockets defense. Too many points to lay. Both of these teams will be motivated to play in the Bahamas. Toledo was shutout by Appalachian State in the Dollar General Bowl last season but FIU was embarrassed in a 28-3 loss to Temple in the Gasparilla Bowl in a game where they had to rely on unprepared backup quarterbacks after an injury to senior QB Alex McGough. 10* CFB FIU-Toledo ESPN Special with the Florida International Golden Panthers (217) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-18 |
Marshall v. South Florida +3 |
|
38-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (216) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 41-20 loss at Virginia Tech as a 3.5-point underdog. South Florida (7-5) has lost five straight games after their 38-10 loss to Central Florida as a 16.5-point favorite back on November 23rd. With this bowl game being moved from St. Petersburg to Raymond James Stadium on Tampa Bay, the Bulls playing in their home stadium for this bowl game.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTH FLORIDA PLUS THE POINTS: Not only are the Bulls 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, South Florida has covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after a loss by at least four touchdowns. It has almost been a month since the Bulls last played and second-year head coach Charlie Strong needed to take full advantage of bowl preparation as looks to build this team for next season. Things started very well for this team with second straight wins to begin the season — and a victory now will remove the bad taste that is in everyone’s mouth after this team dropped its last five games. South Florida has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least two weeks between games. The big question for this team is whether or not junior quarterback Blake Barnett will be able to take the field in this game. The former Alabama QB injured his ankle two games ago which kept him out of that final game with UCF. Barnett is officially listed as questionable for this contest and while he has taken off his walking boot this week, there is little other indication that he is actually ready to play in this game. I suspect that second-year head coach Charlie Strong will not risk further injury to his likely incumbent starter who has not practiced for this game and who will not be at 100%. The Bulls have only scored 27 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. South Florida remains a football team that has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning three of their last four games. This is the Thundering Herd’s third straight game away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing a game on the road. There are some concerns with the Marshall defense after a suspect Virginia Tech offense that generated 454 yards of offense. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. While Marshall boasted an outstanding run defense this year, they did allow opponents to average 231.7 passing YPG against them which ranks 69th in the FBS. They also allowed home teams to average 372.8 total YPG against them which was over 35 more YPG than their season average. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road as the favorite. Additionally, Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as the favorite. And in their last 7 games with the Total in the 49.5 to 56 point range, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd were flat in their opportunity to upset a vulnerable Virginia Tech team which would have been a nice accomplishment for them. Their motivation to play a true road game in Tampa Bay against a team on a five-game losing streak with a 10-win season no longer possible will be a big challenge for Holliday as a head coach. On the other side of the field, home field advantage should have helped Strong get his team focused on salvaging their season and building for next year. Taking the points with the underdog is where the value is for this situation. 10* CFB Marshall-South Florida ESPN Special with the South Florida Bulls (216) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) in the Gasparilla Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-18 |
Ohio v. San Diego State +3 |
Top |
27-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (214) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (213). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (7-5) limps into the bowl season having lost three straight games after their 31-30 upset loss at home to Hawai’i to end their regular season despite being an 18-point favorite in that game back on November 24th. Ohio (8-4) has won two straight games with their 49-28 win over Akron as a 24-point favorite back on November 23rd. These two football programs meet for the first time in the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: It was a strange season for San Diego State. After an opening week loss at Stanford, the Aztecs rattled off six-straight wins including impressive wins against Arizona State and at Boise State. But Rocky Long’s team was hit with the injury bug with starting quarterback Christian Chapman and running back Juwan Washington missing significant time with injuries — and that coincided with a difficult stretch of the season where they had challenging road games at Nevada and Fresno State. San Diego State lost three of four games down the stretch against Mountain West Conference rivals that were decided by just 15 combined points. The team was then flat in their season finale where they got upset by Hawai’i. But now Chapman and Washington are healthy again — and one thing this program has been under Long’s leadership is reliable when bouncing-back a from loss. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a loss decided by 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. Having Washington healthy should jumpstart this offense as he rushed for 870 yards with ten touchdowns despite playing in just eight games. The Aztecs are once again outstanding on the defensive side of the football where they rank 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 327.4 total YPG. The Bobcats want to run the football as they rank 9th in the nation by rushing for 262.2 rushing YPG. But San Diego State ranks 4th in the nation by allowing only 94.5 rushing YPG this season — and opposing rushers averaged just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Aztecs faced six teams that qualified for bowl games this season — and those six teams averaged only 64.3 rushing YPG against this stout San Diego State defense. The Aztecs entered this season with a 32-9 record over their last three seasons. They are rarely an underdog under Long’s leadership — but when they are, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when getting the points. Ohio has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Bobcats preceded that 21-point win over the Zips with a 35-point win over Buffalo the previous week — but Frank Solich’s team has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Ohio has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing away from after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Bobcats out-rushed Akron by a whopping 349 net yards in their last game — but they have failed cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. Ohio has benefited from averaging +1.08 net turnovers per game this season which is the 5th best mark in the nation. They have not committed more than one turnover in six straight games. But after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. They will be facing an Aztecs team that has not committed a turnover in two straight games. The Bobcats thrived at home where they were a perfect 6-0 this season — but they were just 2-4 on the road while being out-gained by -30 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio has reached a bowl game in nine of the last ten seasons under Solich while enjoying a 41-6 blowout win over UAB in the Bahamas Bowl last year. San Diego State has reached a bowl game in all eight years in Long’s tenure but fourteen returning starters will look to redeem themselves from a 42-35 upset loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl as a 7-point favorite. With the Aztecs healthy again, they are probably the better team in this game — and they will be doubly motivated to use this game to erase last year’s underwhelming performance as well as the poor effort over three weeks against Hawai’i. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (214) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-18-18 |
Northern Illinois v. UAB -1 |
|
13-37 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (212) minus the point(s) versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (211). THE SITUATION: UAB (10-3) won the Conference USA Championship with their 27-25 upset win at Middle Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Northern Illinois (8-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th by upsetting Buffalo by a 30-29 score as a 3-point underdog to win the Mid-American Championship. These two conference champions meet in the Boca Raton Bowl in Florida tonight.
REASONS TO LAY THE POINTS WITH THE BLAZERS: Alabama-Birmingham should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games off win on the road against a conference opponent. UAB has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Blazers surrendered 456 yards in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. This team is led by one of one most underrated head coaches in the nation in Bill Clark who pulled off a minor miracle getting this team to a bowl game for two straight seasons despite the football program disbanded in the previous two years. UAB is led by an outstanding defense that is 10th in the nation by allowing 17.3 PPG while also holding their opponents to only 300.2 total YPG which is 11th best in the FBS. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when getting at least two weeks to prepare. And in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, UAB has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Northern Illinois is a strange team to handicap. On the one hand, the fact that they were outscored and out-gained by their opponents this season should throw up some red flags. On the other hand, the Huskies played one of the most difficult non-conference schedules in the nation with games against Iowa, Utah, Florida State, and BYU — so those negative numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt for this non-power five conference team. The offense has been an issue for this team as they rank 119th in the nation by scoring just 20.7 PPG and they also rank 122nd in the FBS by averaging only 325.0 total YPG. In situations like this, looking to the team trends helps illuminate things if we can get a sense of the personality of the team in question when faces situations like this. Northern Illinois’ win over Buffalo went Over the 51.5 point Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games with the over/under in that range. Furthermore, head coach Rod Carey is 0-5 in the five bowl games he has coached with an average losing margin of -25 PPG in those contests. While those results need to be taken with a grain of salt, it certainly is not a ringing endorsement for Carey’s vigor in getting his team ready to play in these postseason games. The Huskies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. At a certain point, we need to follow the numbers.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Illinois will certainly be motivated to end their bowl losing streak — and fourteen starters returned from last year’s team that was embarrassed by a 36-14 score to Duke in the Quick Lane Bowl. But UAB has sixteen starters back from last year’s team that got blown out by Ohio by a 41-6 score in the Bahamas Bowl. In hindsight, the Blazers may have just been happy to reach a bowl game since they were not playing football in the previous two seasons. Now this team travels to Florida with a conference championship and an opportunity to avenge that loss to another MAC opponent. I am trusting the team trends and the better defense in this bowl game. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the UAB Blazers (212) minus the point(s) versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-15-18 |
Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State |
|
13-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (209) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (210). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (8-5) has lost two of their last three games after they 27-25 loss to UAB at home in the Conference USA Championship Game two weeks ago as a 1.5-point favorite. Appalachian State (10-2) has won five straight games with their 30-19 win over Louisiana-Lafayette as a 17.5-point favorite in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game back on December 1st. These two teams meet in the Big Easy for the New Orleans Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Rick Stockstill will have his team ready to play this bowl game with it being the final collegiate game for his son, Brent, as his starting quarterback. As it is, Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in five of their last six games after a defeat. The Blue Raiders has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. That was a difficult situation for this Middle Tennessee team (that we jumped all over) as they ended up playing the Blazers in two straight weeks after qualifying for the conference championship game by defeating UAB the previous week. After out-rushing the Blazers by +132 yards in their victory, they were then out-rushed by -129 yards the next week in that rematch. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after being out-rushed in their last opponent by at least 125 yards. This team has still won five of their last seven games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 6 games against Sun Belt Conference opponents, Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread 5 times. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. This team will be playing without their six-year head coach Scott Satterfield who left the program to take the Louisville head coaching job. Defensive line coach Mark Ivey will serve as the interim head coach for this game. This team may be due for a letdown after winning the Sun Belt Championship. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning their last two games by at least double-digits against conference rivals. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games.
FINAL TAKE: This is the eighth bowl back for Stockstill as the head coach of Middle Tennessee. The extra time to prepare for the Mountaineers spread offense should help the Blue Raiders defense. With Middle Tennessee having the benefit of a gunslinger at quarterback playing his final game, expect a close game. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (209) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-15-18 |
Eastern Michigan +3 v. Georgia Southern |
|
21-23 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (207) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (208). Eastern Michigan (7-5) has won three straight games with their 28-20 win at Kent State as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd. Georgia Southern (9-3) has won two straight contests after their 35-14 win at Georgia State back on November 24th as a 10-point favorite. These two teams face off in the Camellia Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE EASTERN MICHIGAN PLUS THE POINTS: These Eagles should build off their momentum of becoming bowl eligible with their November success. Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Eastern Michigan is led by a stout defense that ranks 32nd in the FBS by allowing only 22.0 PPG. This strong play has helped them stay competitive in almost all of their games. Despite facing teams playing in bowl games this season, five of their losses were decided by a combined 31 points with three of those losses by 3-point setbacks. Eastern Michigan’s defense has helped them play three straight Unders which is a good sign for them now. They have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing an Under — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Unders and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three straight Unders. Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 17 games against non-conference opponents, Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread 14 times. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning their last two games against conference rivals. This team relies on their spread rushing attack to move the football — they have generated 276 and 409 rushing yards in their last two games. But Georgia Southern has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in two straight games. They have out-rushed their last two opponents by +182 and +335 yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after out-rushing their last two opponents by at least +125 yards. But this Eagles’ offense is one-dimensional as they rank 127th in the FBS by averaging just 82.8 passing YPG. Georgia Southern is averaging 66 YPG below what their opponents typically allow per game. They will be facing an Eastern Michigan team that already has played a similar offense from Navy before having two weeks to prepare for this specific scheme. Lastly, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games played on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan is extremely well-coached by Chris Creighton who gets the most out of his talent. With a strong defense with extra time to prepare for the Georgia Southern offense, expect another close game from this Eagles defense from the Mid-American Conference. 10* CFB Eastern Michigan-Georgia Southern ESPN Special with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (207) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-15-18 |
Arizona State v. Fresno State -4 |
|
20-31 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (206) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (205). Fresno State (11-2) won the Mountain West Conference Championship with their 19-16 upset win at Boise State in the snow as a 1.5-point underdog two weeks ago. Arizona State (7-5) has won four of their last five games with their 41-40 win at Arizona as a 1.5-point favorite back on November 24th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State should build off the momentum from that victory in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the points spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 20 points. That game finished below the 51.5 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games after a game that finished Under the Total. This is a team that thrives on defense — they rank 2nd in the nation by allowing only 13.7 PPG while also ranking 17th in the FBS by giving up just 323.8 total YPG. Their defense travels as the Bulldogs are 5-2 on the road this season with an average winning margin of +15.3 PPG due to them only allowing 12.6 PPG away from home. This stout defense is a great complement to the Fresno State offense overseen by head coach Jeff Tedford who is considered an offensive guru and a quarterback whisperer with stints in the NFL and CFL following his coaching tenure at Cal. Senior quarterback Marcus McMaryion has passed for 3453 yards this season while posting an outstanding 25:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The coaching staff will be very familiar with the 3-3-5 defensive scheme they will see from Arizona State under defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales who came over from San Diego State which the Bulldogs compete against every year running the same defensive system. That is a good sign for a football team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after a victory on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 25 games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Arizona State offense will be without their most dangerous weapon in wide receiver N’Keal Harry who is sitting out this game to keep himself healthy for the NFL draft that he is leaving school early to enter. First-year college head coach Herm Edwards looks to be using this game more as an opportunity to get his younger players experience for next season than a crucial contest that he wants his team to win. Sophomore quarterback Dillon Sterling-Cole is likely to get time in this game for senior QB Manny Wilkins. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on a neutral field. The Sun Devils have struggled away from Tempe this season as they have lost four of their six games on the road wheel being out-gained by -85 net YPG. Furthermore, over their last three contests, Arizona State has been out-gained by -67.6 net YPG. The Sun Devils are vulnerable against the pass as they rank 82nd in the nation by allowing 238.7 passing YPG — and the Bulldogs rank 25th in the FBS by averaging 274.2 passing YPG. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: Tedford is 6-3 in his nine opportunities to coach in bowl games — and his team will be motivated to not only knock off a school from a Power-Five conference while earning a twelfth win this season which would be the most in program history. The Sun Devils have not been very good away from home and it looks like Edwards is using this game to prepare for next season. 20* CFB Arizona State-Fresno State ABC-TV Special with the Fresno State Bulldogs (206) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-15-18 |
North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State |
Top |
13-52 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (202). THE SITUATION: North Texas (9-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four games with their 24-21 win over UTSA as a 25-point favorite back on November 24th. Utah State (10-2) saw their ten-game winning streak snapped on that Saturday when they lost by a 33-24 score at Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: I do not like the dynamic from which Utah State enters this game. They suffered a deflating loss to the Broncos that ruined their Mountain West championship aspirations. As it is, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when bouncing back from a loss on the road to a conference rival. And while Utah State has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team is also without their head coach Matt Wells who left the program after that game to become the new head coach for Texas Tech. With interim head coach Frank Maile operating as a lame duck before Gary Andersen returns to the program to serve as the Aggies’ head coach again, it is questionable as to just how motivated this team will be for this game. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the month of December. The Aggies have benefited from a +0.92 net turnover margin per game which is 8th best in the nation — but they did not force a turnover and suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that loss to Boise State. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. Defense is also a concern for this team as they have allowed 471.1 total YPG which is over 85 YPG above their season average. Teams can pass on this team as they rank 84th in the nation by giving up 240.1 passing YPG. This is also a team that thrives at home with a dominant 35-9 mark at home over the years. Both of the Aggies’ losses were on the road this year where they were out-gained away from home by -47.8 net YPG. Additionally, Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. North Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 3 points or less against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two straight games against conference rivals. Furthermore, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. North Texas may scare off some bettors considering that they have only covered the point spread once in their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Led by quarterback Matt Fine who has passed for over 3700 yards this season while posting a sterling 27:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the Mean Green has generated 511 and 516 yards in each of their last two games. North Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight contests. Fine should find success against this Aggies pass defense as he leads an offense that ranks 11th in the nation by averaging 316.3 passing YPG. While the UNT pass defense is vulnerable, the Mean Green defense can make Utah State one-dimensional as they rank 15th in the nation by allowing only 113.5 rushing YPG. Lastly, North Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: North Texas has reached a bowl game in each of the first two seasons under third-year head coach Seth Littrell — but they have yet to win that final game. The Mean Green should be very motivated to earth their first bowl win under Littrell while reaching the ten-win milestone this season. 25* CFB New Mexico Bowl Special Feature with the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-15-18 |
Tulane -3.5 v. UL-Lafayette |
Top |
41-24 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (203) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (204). THE SITUATION: Tulane (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning four of their last five games with their 29-28 victory over Navy on November 24th as a 5-point favorite. UL-Lafayette (7-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game where they lost at Appalachian State by a 17.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane will be very excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2014 — and their first postseason game under third-year head coach Willie Fritz. The Green Wave were inches away from being bowl eligible last season before getting stuff on the goal line in their upset bid against SMU leaving them at 5-7 and ailing to become bowl eligible. This moment has been a long time coming for this program that returned fourteen starters from last year’s team. Tulane has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow win at home by 3 points or less. The Green Wave have lost three games this season decided by 7 points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. This team has improved on offense since Justin McMillan took over at quarterback. The graduate transfer from LSU has throw ten touchdown passes in his last five games after completing 18 of 29 passes for 291 yards with three TD passes against the Midshipmen while adding another touchdown with 51 rushing yards in that victory. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Tulane did not force a turnover in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force at least one turnover in their last contest. This team led the American Athletic Conference by allowing just 5.4 Yards-Per-Play in conference games. They are particularly tough against the run as they ranked second in the AAC by allowing just 152.6 rushing YPG — and they held their opponents to only 3.95 Yards-Per-Carry. They held their opponents to 38 YPG below their offensive season average. Furthermore, the Green Wave have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. UL-Lafayette has covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This is not a good matchup for this Ragin’ Cajuns team facing an opponent from a superior conference. UL-Lafayette relies on running the football so they will be playing into the strength of the Tulane defense — and they only average 208.0 passing YPG which is 89th in the FBS. The Ragin’ Cajun defense struggles to defend the run as they rank 107th in the nation by allowing 210.0 rushing YPG — and their opponents average 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry. They face a big challenge when facing this Green Wave offense that is 30th in the nation by averaging 208.3 rushing YPG. UL-Lafayette may be facing some new wrinkles as well after Fritz fired his offensive coordinator Doug Ruse after the Navy game. Alex Atkins will be calling the plays for this game. The Ragin’ Cajuns allowed their opponents to average 41 YPG above their offensive season average. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two straight Unders.
FINAL TAKE: I like the dynamic this Tulane team has entering this game with the challenge of a new offensive coordinator helping to focus their attention as they play their first bowl game in years. UL-Lafayette usually is tapped to play in the New Orleans Bowl in the opening Saturday of the bowl season. This Green Wave is more battle-tested having played in an American Athletic Conference that is significantly better than the Sun Belt. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Tulane Green Wave (203) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-18 |
Navy +8 v. Army |
|
10-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (103) plus the points versus the Army West Point Black Knights (104). THE SITUATION: Navy (3-9) enters their rivalry game coming off a 29-28 loss at Tulane as a 5-point underdog back on November 24th. Army (9-2) has won seven straight games with their 28-24 win over Colgate as an 11-point favorite back on November 17th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Navy had dominated this series by winning fourteen straight meetings starting in 2002 but they have lost these last two encounters with their arch rival. This has been a lost season for head coach Ken Niumatalolu in his eleventh season with the Midshipmen. Expectations were certainly high that with nine returning starters (not uncommon for a service academy program) from last year’s 7-6 team that lost six of their last seven games that this year’s team would take a step back up. Instead, the rigors of playing in the American Athletic Conference has taken its toll on the win-loss record of this football team. Yet an upset win over the Black Knights would offer this team plenty of positive feelings going into next season. Senior Zach Abbey will be concluding his career this afternoon back at quarterback after initially being moved to wide receiver to start the season — and he should offer the team an emotional lift since he played the last time the Midshipmen won this rivalry game. Expect the strongest effort of the season from Niumatalolo’s team as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a loss by 6 points or less. Navy has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing eight of their last ten games. The Midshipmen are doing a good job of protecting the football as they have won the turnover battle in each of their last two games. Navy has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight games. Army had a 14-0 halftime lead over Colgate in their last game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 3 points in the first-half of their last game. The Black Knights have not allowed more than 241 yards of offense in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Army has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in games with the Total set no higher than 42. Lastly, the Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a bye week(s) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The last four games between these two teams have been decided by 7 points or less. Expect another close game between these two rivals. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Navy Midshipmen (103) plus the points versus the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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