12-21-19 |
UAB +18 v. Appalachian State |
|
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (217) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (218). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on the Conference USA Championship Game with their 49-7 loss at FAU as a 9-point underdog. Appalachian State (12-1) won the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game that day with their 45-38 win over UL-Lafayette at home as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB probably played their worst game of the season in that loss to the Owls. Look for head coach Bill Clark to have his team ready to respond with a strong effort tonight. The Blazers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. UAB surrendered 585 yards in that game to FAU playing at home — but they have responded to then cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Blazers have been a strong defensive team this season as they rank 9th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 294.1 total YPG. UAB also only managed 223 yards on offense in that game — but they are 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. The Blazers are also 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This is a team that has been riddled with injuries all season. The incumbent starting quarterback, Tyler Johnston III, has missed four games this season. But the two weeks of rest and preparation will help this team get closer to full strength which includes a healthy Johnston. Admittedly, UAB has benefitted from a soft schedule this season — but so has Appalachian State. Remember, the Mountaineers last loss was against a Georgia Southern team that just got upset this afternoon to a Liberty team which had generally considered to have played the weakest schedule in the nation. The analytics folks who crunch strength of schedule into their laptops before projecting their (albeit flawed) point spread projections tend to have Appalachian State as a -12 to -18.5 point favorite — so we are getting value from most of the projections that take seriously strength of schedule. This Mountaineers team was outgained in four of their victories this season — and they lost the first down battle by a whopping 106 to 63 margin in those four games. They forced three turnovers by the Ragin’ Cajuns in their win two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after securing at least three takeaways in their last game. These big favorites in bowl games have been known to not bring their A-Game when traveling — and who knows what the mental shape of this team is with head coach Eli Drinkwater leaving the program to take the Missouri job. Offensive line coach Shawn Clark has been named the new head coach — but this team has been susceptible to letdowns under much less dramatic situations than winning the Sun Belt Championship before seeing their head coach leave them. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least five games in a row. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row against conference rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Too many points to lay against an extremely well-coached team that has had a very captive audience since they embarrassed themselves on national television two weeks ago. While Appalachian State is the better team (and program), the divide is not as large as the point spread suggests. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the UAB Blazers (217) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-19 |
Liberty +6 v. Georgia Southern |
Top |
23-16 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th with their 49-28 win over New Mexico State as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (7-5) has won two of their last three games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 38-10 victory over Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite on November 30th. The Cure Bowl game takes place on a neutral field in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty generated 486 yards of offense against the Aggies to close out their regular season — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. These Flames are a high-scoring offense led by senior quarterback Stephen Calvert who threw for 26 touchdown passes while tossing just five interceptions. Calvert has a dynamic target in wide receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden who has 1333 receiving yards with nine touchdown receptions. Calvert leads an offense that is tied for 31st in the FBS by scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 442.5 total YPG which is 34th in the nation. Calvert leads a passing attack that is 21st in the FBS by averaging 290.5 passing YPG. He should have success this afternoon against a suspect Eagles pass defense that allows their opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which is 91st in the nation. This team is comfortable in getting into high scoring affairs. They have seen 82 and 77 combined points scored in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two straight games where at least 70 combined points were scored. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. This team has a veteran head coach in Hugh Freeze who has dealt with adversity this season after contracting a staph infection that led to him coaching a handful of games from his bed. Look for this team to rally around their coach in this game. The knock-on this Flames team not affiliated with a conference is that they reached seven wins on one of the softest schedules in the nation. But also keep in mind that Liberty upset the same Buffalo team that easily defeated Charlotte in yesterday’s Bahamas Bowl — and Georgia Southern deploys a similar run-oriented style of offense. Being an independent also required the Flames to endure a difficult late-season four-game road trip that included trips to BYU and Virginia — so this is a battle-tested group. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against non-conference opponents. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games as an underdog. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win over a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles did not commit a turnover in their last victory over the Panthers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Georgia Southern has won four games decided by one scoring possession with two of those victories coming in overtime — so this team was a couple of bad breaks from bot even being bowl eligible. The Eagles were outgained by -43.0 net YPG overall this season — and they were outscored by -12.5 PPG in their six games away from home while being outgained by -124.5 net YPG in those contests. Georgia Southern deploys a spread triple offense that is effective in running the ball — but things are not as smooth if quarterback Shai Werts has to throw the football with the Eagles averaging just 72.8 passing YPG which is last in the FBS with Werts averaging below 11 passing attempts per game in his ten contests.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern returned fourteen starters from last year’s 10-3 team that won the Camellia Bowl over Eastern Michigan by a 23-21 score. Their motivation to prepare for this bowl game may not be as high in these preceding weeks — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-19 |
Central Michigan +3.5 v. San Diego State |
|
11-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (207) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (208) in the New Mexico Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (8-5) looks to bounce-back from being upset in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game to Miami (OH) by a 26-21 score despite being a 5.5-point favorite. San Diego State (9-3) looks to build off their 13-3 upset victory BYU as a 4-point underdog on November 30th. The New Mexico Bowl takes place in Albuquerque.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Michigan was upset by the Red Hawks despite outgaining them by +83 net yards in that game. The Chippewas limited Miami (OH) to just 272 total yards in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Central Michigan has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team is led by MAC Coach of the Year, Jim McElwain, who is very familiar with Rocky Long’s coached-teams at San Diego State after his tenure in the Mountain West Conference as the head coach at Colorado State. Long deploys a tricky 3-3-5 defense that McElwain has spent many hours dissecting even before this bowl matchup was announced. This team has steadily improved this season after suffering a 1-10 record last season. Former Tennessee quarterback Quentin Dormady has completed 71% of his passes over his last three games and will not shrink under the scrutiny of this game given his previous starting experience in SEC play. Over their last three games, the Chippewas are averaging 467.3 total YPG while outgaining their opponents by +120 net YPG. This team has a stout defense that ranked 20th in the nation by allowing only 115.1 rushing YPG — and they rank 38th in the nation in total defense by giving up one y351.7 total YPG. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the MAC. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. And while the Aztecs surrendered 338 passing yards to the Cougars which is not a good sign for this game considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. San Diego State upset BYU despite being without their starting quarterback Ryan Agnew. While Agnew has recovered and will play in this game, he leads an anemic offense the did not score more than 20 points in five games this season. Don’t be surprised if Long uses this game to get his freshman QB Carson Baker more playing time after he started against BYU. This is an offense that is 119th in the nation by averaging just 19.0 PPG while also ranking 115th in the FBS by averaging only 329.3 total YPG. And over their last three games, the Aztecs are scoring only 13.3 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego State was embarrassed last season in their bowl game against Ohio which ended in a 27-0 loss. But the Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in December. Expect Central Michigan to keep this game close. 10* CFB New Mexico Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Michigan Chippewas (207) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-19 |
Kent State +7 v. Utah State |
|
51-41 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (203) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (204) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kent State (6-6) has won three games in a row with their 34-26 upset win at Eastern Michigan as a 4-point underdog on November 29th. Utah State (7-5) has won three of their last four games with their 38-25 win at New Mexico as a 12-point favorite on November 30th. This bowl will take place in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: Kent State became bowl-eligible by pulling upsets in their last three games of the season. The Golden Flashes upset Buffalo by a 30-27 score getting +6.5 points before stunning Ball State by a 41-38 score as a +3 point dog before their upset win against the Eagles to close out the regular season. Some may look at those results and expect this team to experience an emotional letdown after reaching the mountain of a bowl game. However, this is a team that continued to improve and develop during the regular season after facing a very difficult non-conference schedule that featured Wisconsin, Auburn, and Arizona State. At 32-years old, Sean Lewis is the youngest head coach in the FBS in his second-year with the program. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while Kent State has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Over their last three games, the Golden Flashes are scoring 35.0 PPG while averaging 456.3 total YPG which is +7.6 PPG and +62.7 YPG above their season average. This team is led by an underrated junior quarterback in Dustin Crum who beat out a former Auburn transfer in Woody Barrett during fall practice. Crum threw 18 touchdown passes this season while tossing just two interceptions while completing 68.2% of his passes and averaging a robust 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt. His 156.07 Passer Rating was tops in the Mid-American Conference. The dual-threat QB also led the team with 560 rushing yards entering this game. Crum’s offensive talent should keep Kent State competitive in this game. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Kent State has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. This team has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog when facing a non-Power Five opponent. The Golden Flashes have rushed for 266 and 253 yards in each of their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games. Kent State is 44th in the nation by averaging 181.3 rushing YPG — and they will be facing an Aggies defense that has been vulnerable against the run by allowing 197.8 rushing YPG which is 103rd in the FBS. Utah State has allowed 297 and 276 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 225 rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against conference opponents. This is a team that appears to be a prime candidate to be taking this bowl game lightly. They are distracted after four players were busted for pot possession on Saturday including their junior quarterback Jordan Love. This program peaked last season with their 11-2 campaign that ended with a 52-13 win over North Texas in the New Mexico Bowl. That team averaged 48 PPG — but with only two starters back on offense and their offensive guru in head coach Matt Wells leaving the program for Temple, the scoring plummeted to just 28.3 PPG this season (68th in the nation). Love had an uninspiring 17:16 touchdown-to-interception ratio after boasting a 32:6 ratio last season — yet he is still bailing on his senior year to enter the NFL draft while the iron remains (relatively) hot. The Regression Gods were expected to visit this team this season — but even with former head coach Gary Andersen returning to the program, this team was outscored and outgained in yardage this season. Three net close victories by one scoring possession were essential in them becoming bowl eligible. The Aggies were outscored by -7.0 PPG when playing on the road while being outgained by -113.0 net YPG. Utah State was also outscored by -6.7 PPG over their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Losing their All-American linebacker, David Woodward, midseason certainly did not help the development of the Aggies in Andersen’s return to the program. Utah State ranks 96th in the nation by allowing 431.4 total YPG. This is Kent State’s just third bowl game appearance in program history with this being their first bowl opportunity since 2012. They should be fired up — and their skill on offense should keep this game close. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the Kent State Golden Flashes (203) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-19 |
Buffalo v. Charlotte +7 |
|
31-9 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte 49ers (202) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (7-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-22 win at Old Dominion to close out their regular season on November 30th as a 10.5-point favorite. Buffalo (7-5) has won their last two games as well as five of their last six contests with their 49-7 win over Bowling Green as a 28-point favorite back on November 29th. This game is being played in Nassau in the Bahamas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte is a team that got significantly better as the season went on under first-year head coach Will Healy. After allowing at least 30 points in five of their first six games against FBS opponents, the 49ers did not allow more than 22 points in their final four games while holding both their last two opponents in Marshall and the Monarchs to below 5.0 Yards-Per-Play. Charlotte had nine starters back from a defense that ranked 22nd in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 337.3 total YPG last season but it took that group some time to adapt to the new 4-2-5 scheme implemented by defensive coordinators Brandon Cooper and Marcus West. The extra defensive back helped as the 49ers limited their opponents to just 198.3 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. Slowing down the run will be critical against the Bulls but this was a group that was 9th in the FBS two seasons ago by allowing just 105.7 rushing YPG so don’t be surprised if they deploy some of their familiar 5-2-4 looks that they used two years ago with three returning starters on that defensive line. Healy’s bigger assignment in his first season was improving an offense that scored just 21.7 PPG (tied for 113th in the FBS) last season. Mission accomplished: Charlotte raised that mark 31.6 PPG this season which was tied for 41st best. The offense is led by senior running back Benny LeMay who led a ground attack that averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 24th in the nation by averaging 213.3 rushing YPG. LeMay missed two games midseason but came back to put together back-to-back 100 yard plus rushing games to end the regular season. The improvement in the offense can be traced to the improved play of sophomore quarterback Chris Reynolds who completed 62.2% of his passes while throwing 21 touchdown passes to 10 interceptions while adding 757 rushing yards with 6 rushing touchdowns. Over Reynolds' last five games, he threw 9 TD passes with two games where he passed for 336 and 354 yards while adding a minimum of 94 rushing yards in each contest. Over their last three games, the 49ers outscored their opponents by +12.3 PPG while outgaining them by +122.3 net YPG. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win over a Conference USA rival. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, the 49ers have covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point sped in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least four touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Bulls were an impressive 6-1 at home this season — but they were only 2-4 away from home while being outscored by -2.8 PPG in those games. The weakness of this team is when they have to rely on their passing attack. Sophomore Kyle Vantrease did not win the starting quarterback job out of camp but took over after the season-ending injury to redshirt freshman Matt Myers. Vantrease averaged only 155 passing YPG in his seven starters. More telling, while Buffalo averaged just 18.7 passing attempts per game in their seven wins, that number rose to 26 passing attempts per game in their five losses — so the ability of the 49ers to slow down their rushing attack looks critical. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when getting at least two weeks to prepare.
FINAL TAKE: This is Buffalo’s first back-to-back bowl appearance in program history after playing and losing in last year’s Dollar General Bowl to Troy by a 42-32 score after blowing a 4th quarter lead. Buffalo is looking to win their first bowl game in their fourth try this afternoon. This will be the first bowl game for Charlotte in just their fifth year in the FBS — and the players will be excited to trigger the strobe light post-victory ritual that has been implemented by Healy. The first five Bahamas Bowls have all been decided by 4 points or less — expect another close game in the sixth incarnation of this bowl game. 20* CFB Bahamas Bowl ESPN Special with the Charlotte 49ers (202) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-14-19 |
Army +11 v. Navy |
|
7-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
18 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (303) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army outgained Hawai’i by +46 net yards but managed to lose the game — although allowing a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown reversed what could have been a 45-38 score late in the 4th quarter. The Black Knights did rush for 411 yards in that game —and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home after rushing for at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. This Army team has improved on offense as the season has continued — they have generated at least 500 yards of offense in three straight games while averaging 47.0 PPG along with 575.2 total YPG in those games. But the Black Knights need to play better on defense after surrendering 492 yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Army has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The Black Knights do have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. This was a disappointing season for an Army team that returned eleven starters from last year’s group that finished 11-2 after winning their final nine games. Monken has made this program into a juggernaut as they had won 29 games in their previous three seasons. The Black Knights endured four close losses decided by one scoring possession including a double-overtime loss at Michigan. But a victory over Navy offers this team an opportunity to salvage their season. Army is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December. The Black Knights are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog. Navy enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin against the Cougars but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after having at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. And while the Midshipmen have played five straight games where at least 66 combined points were scored, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Navy is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. The Midshipmen have slipped on defense to close out this season — they have allowed 40.3 PPG along with 427.0 total YPG over their last three contests. Navy has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. Additionally, the Midshipmen are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Army has won the last three meetings between these two teams — and the seniors will be motivated to graduate with an undefeated record against the Midshipmen. Navy will be very motivated to end their losing streak to the Black Knights — but this should be a close game with Army having covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Together, these team trends produce our specific 58-17-4 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Army Black Knights (303) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-19 |
Wisconsin +17 v. Ohio State |
|
21-34 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (119) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (120). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (10-2) has won four straight games after their 38-17 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite. Ohio State (12-0) defeated Michigan in Ann Arbor last Saturday by a 56-27 score as an 8.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field in Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin played the Buckeyes close for 35 minutes in the first meeting between these two teams before they game got out of control late in a 38-7 loss on October 26th. Ohio State had just a 10-7 lead in the 3rd quarter of that game. The Badgers’ physical style of defense and running the football has helped them go 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the Big Ten Championship or a bowl game as an underdog with Wisconsin pulling the upset five times. The Badgers has scored at least 37 points in each of their last three games — and they are tough to handle when they get their offense going. Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight games. They generated 453 yards in their win against the Golden Gophers — and they are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while Wisconsin has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 34 of their last 48 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning at least five games in a row. They dominated the Wolverines last week with 28 first downs while controlling the clock for 36:25 minutes — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after holding the ball for at least 34 minutes and gaining at least 24 first downs in their last game. The Buckeyes did show some vulnerability in that game as they surrendered 305 passing yards to the Michigan offense — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Quarterback Justin Fields did not leave that game 100% either with a knee injury which may limit his mobility tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. With superstar running back Jonathan Taylor, the Badgers have the ability to control the clock to stay competitive with the Buckeyes. 10* CFB Wisconsin-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (119) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-19 |
Georgia +7.5 v. LSU |
Top |
10-37 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-1) has won six straight games with their 52-7 win over Georgia Tech last week as a 28.5-point favorite. LSU (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 50-7 win over Texas A&M last week as a 17.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs’ biggest question mark is with their skill players on offense. Wide receiver Lawrence Cager is out the season with an ankle injury and wide receiver George Perkins will miss the first half in this game to serve out a suspension. Furthermore, running back D’Andre Swift is dealing with a shoulder injury but it looks like he will be able to play in this game. Georgia did generate 500 yards against the Yellow Jackets — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback in Jake Fromm who has the experience of a National Championship Game as well as two prior SEC Championship Games. But is the Georgia defense that should keep them in this game. They rank 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.4 PPG — and they rank 4th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to only 257.0 total YPG. The Bulldogs also may very well have the best special teams unit in the nation. This combination of elite defense and special teams has helped Georgia cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games played on a neutral field, Georgia has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Tigers held the football for 34:38 minutes against the Aggies while generating 31 first downs, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes in their last game. The Tigers also gained 553 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Remember that while LSU has been explosive on offense often this season, they narrowly got by Auburn by a 23-20 score — and the Tigers are a defense-first run team like the Bulldogs. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia is a dangerous underdog that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when getting the points since 2016 with them pulling the outright upset three times. 25* CFB Power-Five Conference Championship Game of the Year is with the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-19 |
Hawaii +14 v. Boise State |
Top |
10-31 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (9-4) has won four straight games with their 52-31 win over Army last week as a 2.5-point favorite. Boise State (11-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Colorado State on the road by a 31-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. The Broncos earned the right to host this Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their better record.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Don’t be scared off going against home teams in conference championship games. Home teams are now just 18-20 ATS in the thirty-right times that one has hosted a conference championship contest. Only one home team covered the point spread last year in the Conference Championship games (Central Florida) with the three other home teams failing to cover the point spread with Middle Tennessee and this Boise State team losing outright despite being a home favorite. The Broncos are not a reliable big favorite as they have failed to covert point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. With freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier still recovering from his shoulder injury, 5th year senior quarterback Jaylon Henderson will make his fourth straight start for this team. The Broncos are averaging 43 PPG in his three starts with the 31 points they put up last week being their lowest number — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Boise State was outgained by 35 yards last week by a mediocre Rams team that then let their head coach go. The Broncos surrendered 289 passing yards with Colorado State averaging 6.32 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. This leaky pass defense presents a scary proposition when facing the Rainbow Warriors’ junior quarterback Cole McDonald that leads an offense that is 6th in the nation by averaging 332.5 passing YPG. It will be a chilly night in Boise with temperatures in the 40s — but I watched McDonald complete 31 of 36 passes for 373 yards on a cold night in Reno earlier this season against Nevada. Hawai’i has four receivers with at least 50 catches. I was also impressed with the Rainbow Warriors’ ability to move the football against a strong Army defense in what was a lame-duck game for them with this MWC Championship Game already clinched. Hawai’i gained 492 yards against the Black Knights while only having the ball for 24:40 minutes in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Rainbow Warriors did surrender 411 rushing yards to Army’s spread triple option — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 375 rushing yards in their last game. The Hawai’i defense has improved — they held their last two conference opponents in UNLV and San Diego State to just 18 combined points along with only 4 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road with the Total set at 63 to 70 including covering the point all three times in that situation this season.
FINAL TAKE: Boise State won the first meeting between these two teams at home by a 59-37 score back on October 12th. But Hawai’i has covered the point spread in their last 5 opportunities to exact same-season revenge. The Broncos may be taking the Rainbow Warriors lightly while dreaming of the Cotton Bowl as the Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six bowls — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. Hawai’i is a very dangerous underdog giving the potency of their offensive attack. 25* CFB Underdog of the Year with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-19 |
Cincinnati v. Memphis -8.5 |
|
24-29 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (114) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (113). THE SITUATION: Memphis (11-1) has won six straight games with their 34-24 win over Cincinnati last week as a 13.5-point favorite. The Tigers get to stay at home for this immediate rematch for the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats may have held back some of their tricks last week with their spot in this game already clinched. Quarterback Desmond Ridder did not play last week with his shoulder injury but Cincinnati got better play in the passing game with freshman Ben Bryant completing 20 of 32 passes for 229 yards. Ridder will be back under center for this game but he has just a 64.6 Passer Ratlin in his last two games against South Florida and Temple. Despite their 10-2 record, the Bearcats only outgained their opponents by +8.5 net YPG. They won all four of their close games decided by one scoring possession. Cincinnati also struggled on the road where they were outgained by -55.3 net YPG. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in December, Cincinnati is just 0-5-1 ATS. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They get to stay at home where they have lost only once since the 2017 season. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 at home this year with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. Memphis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has lost the last two American Athletic Conference Championship Games to Central Florida — so this should be a very determined team to finally climb the hump to with a conference title. 10* CFB Cincinnati-Memphis ABC-TV Special with the Memphis Tigers (114) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-19 |
UAB v. Florida Atlantic -7 |
|
6-49 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (112) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (111). THE SITUATION: FAU (9-3) has won five straight games with their 34-17 win over Southern Mississippi last week as a 9-point favorite. UAB (9-3) has won three straight games with their 26-21 win at North Texas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. The Owls host this Conference USA Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE FAU MINUS THE POINTS: The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win by at least 17 points. And while FAU has scored at least 31 points in six straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. This team has steadily improved under head coach Lane Kiffin. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after the first month of the season. In Kiffin’s two teams that were bowl eligible at FAU, they are 18-6-1 ATS in those 25 games with an average winning margin of +24.1 PPG. The Owls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to14 points, FAU has covered the point spread in 5 of these games. UAB has played one of the softest schedules in the nation this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have won their last two games by 6 points or less — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. And while the Blazers are outgaining their opponents by +161 YPG at home, they are only outgaining their opponents on the road by +27 YPG while being outscored by -5.0 PPG. UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Blazers have been outscored by -21.7 PPG against the three teams they have faced that are bowl eligible. They also got crushed by a 37-2 score to the Southern Miss team that FAU just clobbered. 20* CFB UAB-FAU CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (112) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-19 |
Baylor +9.5 v. Oklahoma |
|
23-30 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (109) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (110). THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-1) has won their last two games with their 61-6 win over Kansas last week as a 14-point favorite. Oklahoma (11-1) has won four in a row with their 34-16 win at Oklahoma State as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. The Big 12 Championship Game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. With Utah’s loss last night, Oklahoma may be in the driver’s seat to earn the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff with a victory in this game. But with high expectations comes more pressure as the Utes found out last night. This Sooners team has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They have benefited from three net close victories decided by one scoring possession. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of 9 games against Big 12 opponents this season. And in their last 13 games played on a neutral field as the favorite, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread 10 times. Baylor has picked themselves up off the mat after blowing a 28-3 lead against the Sooners in their 34-31 loss at home back on November 16th. The Bears have outscored their Kansas and Texas by a combined 69 points. Baylor generated 507 yards against the Jayhawks — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in December. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 23 of the last 32 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog when playing on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: Baylor head coach Matt Rhule thrives when preparing his team in the role of the underdog. In his coaching career going back to his time at Temple, Rhule’s teams are 33-14 ATS with sixteen upset victories. Rhule’s Baylor teams have covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog with five upset victories included. 10* CFB Baylor-Oklahoma ABC-TV Special with the Baylor Bears (109) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-19 |
UL-Lafayette +7 v. Appalachian State |
|
38-45 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (107) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (108). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (10-2) has won six straight games with their 31-30 win over UL-Monroe as a 20.5-point favorite last week. Appalachian State (11-1) has won four straight games after their 48-13 win at Troy last week as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Lafayette has raised their level of play after losing to the Mountaineers by a 17-7 score back on October 19th. They have scored at least 31 points in each of their last six games with an average winning score of 40-15. The Ragin’ Cajuns should enter this game with confidence — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And while they gained 522 yards last week to the Warhawks, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning three straight games in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after playing two straight Sun Belt foes. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they dominated the Trojans last week by holding the ball for 34:30 minutes while generating 27 first downs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. Appalachian State hosts this Sun Belt Championship Game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games when laying up to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Mountaineers may be in line to earn the Group of Five bid to a New Year’s Six bowl — and they may get caught looking ahead when hosting a team that they have defeated by double-digits in their last three meetings including last year’s Sun Belt Championship Game by a 30-18 score. But Lafayette head coach Billy Napier has led his teams to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and his teams have pulled the upset in three of their last four games as a dog getting less than 7 points. 20* CFB Lafayette-Appalachian State ESPN Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (107) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-19 |
Oregon +7 v. Utah |
|
37-15 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (103) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (104). THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) reached the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 24-10 win over Oregon State last Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite. Utah (11-1) joined them with their 45-15 win over Colorado as a 27.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks went into halftime with a 17-3 lead over the Beavers last week, they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 44 of their last 58 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Oregon defense should keep the Ducks in a close game tonight. First-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a fantastic job with a unit that returned seven starters from last year’s squad. Oregon ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 15.8 PPG. It starts up from for the Ducks with nose guard Jordan Scott who leads a defensive line that holds their opponents to only 106.1 rushing YPG which is 10th in the nation. This stout run defense forces opponents to pass — and Oregon has picked off 17 passes this season. The Utes’ senior quarterback Tyler Huntley will be challenged by the toughest defense that he has faced all season in this Ducks’ unit. Huntley completed 14 of 17 passes last week against the Buffaloes for 165 passing yards — but Utah has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last contest. The Utes are a senior-laden squad that will be looking to redeem themselves from losing to Washington by a 10-3 score in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game. But this group is also facing the pressure of needing this win to keep their College Football Playoff aspirations alive — and these expectations are new to this program that has not won more than 10 games in the Kyle Whittingham era. Strength of schedule is also an issue for this Utes team whose best opponent may have been the USC that they lost to by a 30-23 score. Utah’s most impressive wins were at Washington an BYU. Oregon is, by far, the best team that the Utes will have faced all season.
FINAL TAKE: I have thought that the Ducks’ quarterback, Justin Herbert, has been a bit overrated which is why I have faced Oregon in some of their big games this season. But I think Herbert is much more dangerous leading his team in the role of the underdog — and the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to 7 points. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (103) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-19 |
Alabama -3 v. Auburn |
Top |
45-48 |
Loss |
-114 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). THE SITUATION: Alabama (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 66-3 warmup victory over Western Carolina last week as a 58.5-point favorite. Auburn (8-3) hosts this year’s Iron Bowl coming after their 52-0 shutout victory over Samford last week as a 45.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The big question for Alabama is just how much of a drop-off will they experience without Tua Tagovailoa who suffered a season-ending hip injury in their win over Mississippi State. But it is pretty much situation normal for Alabama to thrive under head coach Nick Saban when they have the proverbial “game manager” under center. What made Tagavailoa such an exciting talent is that Saban had never had a quarterback quite so dynamic as him in his thirteen-year tenure in Tuscaloosa. Tagavailoa broke the NCAA record in passing efficiency last year before producing another outstanding season this year before suffering an ankle injury midseason. But remember that Alabama did plenty of winning with A.J. Mccarran and Greg McElroy as the signal-caller. Here is something that I have never written or uttered before: I think this offense will benefit from the experience of offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. I was not a fan of his work as the OC with the Atlanta Falcons — but his Red Zone issues there did get better over time. But Sarkisian is unquestionably a wily veteran at this point in his career which includes him serving as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in the 2017 National Championship Game where they lost to Clemson by a 35-31 score. I have confidence that he can dial-up a game plan to help put sophomore Mac Jones in a position to succeed. The Crimson Tide may very well have the most talented wide receiver group in the nation with four future NFL players in Jerry Judy, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. Auburn has an outstanding defense but it is difficult for any unit to provide ample coverage to all that talent. Don’t be surprised if Sarkisian has plenty of new schemes that get the ball quickly to these talented skill position players in ways different than the skills Tagovailoa offered. It is not as if Jones lacks talent himself — of course, he was highly recruited coming out of high school (Phil Steele ranked him his #25th incoming QB). Jones has completed 28 of 34 passes for 510 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his two starts this season against Arkansas and Western Carolina. And he will get help from running back Najee Harris who has quietly averaged 6 Yards-Per-Carry. I still see an offense very similar to the one that Saban won four National Championships here at Alabama before he called on Tagovailoa to come in relief in the second half to rally his team to defeat Georgia two years ago for his fifth championship for the Crimson Tide. Alabama has still averaged 530.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Tide has averaged 8.5 Yards-Per-Play and 9.49 YPP in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight games. Furthermore, the Alabama defense will be playing with a chip on their shoulders to make things happen. While injuries early in the season required younger players in the front seven to take on more playing time, this unit ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 315.4 total YPG. The Crimson Tide has forced 25 turnovers this season — and they lead the nation by averaging +1.55 net turnovers per game. The weak link for this Auburn team is their offense that ranks just 54th in the nation by averaging 427.2 total YPG. While the Tigers have speed to burn at the skill positions, they are not nearly as talented at the wide receiver positions with reliable ball catchers. Furthermore, freshman quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in big games in his rookie season without the elite talent at his disposal that Jones will enjoy. In losses to Florida and LSU, Nix completed just 26 of 62 passes with just two touchdown passes and four interceptions. And while the Tigers forced Georgia to punt eleven times when hosting the Bulldogs, they still only managed 14 points in that loss. Nix completed 15 of 23 passes last week against Samford — but don’t be fooled by those numbers as he generated only 150 passing yards in that warmup game. Pro Football Focus rated that performance as the lowest-graded of all SEC quarterbacks last week — so it is safe to say that he is not entering the biggest game of his career with tons of momentum. As it is, Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 28 points. Auburn’s play on defense has helped them play four straight Unders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Auburn played LSU close in a 23-20 loss — but they also survived one-possession games in wins over Oregon, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Some pundits think the Tide needs a big win in this game to keep their playoff hopes alive but I suspect that all they need is a victory to remind the Playoff Committee and the potential audience in the National Semifinals that this team was on-target for one of the best seasons in college football history before their surprising 44-16 loss to Clemson in the championship game. This team remains chippy for the opportunity for a rematch — and that drive should lead them to victory this afternoon. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-19 |
Ohio State v. Michigan +9.5 |
|
56-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (368) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (367). THE SITUATION: Michigan (9-2) has won four straight games after their 39-14 win at Indiana last week as a 10-point favorite. Ohio State (11-0) looks to remain unbeaten heading into their clinched slot in the Big Ten Championship Game next Saturday after their 28-17 win over Penn State last week as a 20-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan is playing their best football at this point of the season. Since the halftime of their eventual loss at Penn State, the Wolverines have outscored their opponents over those last 18 quarters by a 180 to 52 margin. Over their last four games, this team is scoring 41.5 PPG. In large part, the team finally began to click with the new system of rookie offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. But Gattis also saw improvement in his first year calling plays by adjusting to the Michigan talent while also adding some plays where the quarterback was under center to improve their ability to execute in situation football. However, the under-appreciated element to this improvement was the improved health of some of the key players on offense. Junior wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones did not play early in the season as he recovered from an injury while quarterback Shea Patterson finally got back to full health after battling a chest injury that impacted both his throwing motion and his mobility for the first half of the season. Turnovers were a killer for this team early in the season as well — but this team has committed only two turnovers in those 18 quarters since halftime in Happy Valley. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. Additionally, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home where they are a perfect 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.3 PPG. Michigan once again has an elite defense that is 4th in the nation by allowing just 267.0 total YPG. They hold their visitors to just 11.5 PPG along with only 226.2 total YPG this season in the Big House. This defense was exposed last season against the Buckeyes when they used their speedy wideouts to quick crossing routes than defensive coordinator Don Brown’s man-to-man schemes could not keep up with. Florida then burned the Wolverines in the Peach Bowl with similar concepts. But Brown adjusted for the Notre Dame game this season by deploying zone concepts that stymied the Irish’s crossing schemes in their dominant 45-14 victory. Michigan has now covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Ohio State has looked dominant this season — but the talk that this may be one of the best Buckeyes’ teams ever is premature. Despite having some potentially scary moments against the Nittany Lions, this Ohio State team has not endured the proverbial punch in the face that truly measured their character to handle adversity. The Buckeyes have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Ohio State has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. And while Ohio State has not allowed more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing four straight opponents to average more than 4.25 YPP. The Buckeyes have failed also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Michigan as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio State was the home underdog last season which helped motivate them to crush the Wolverines by a 62-39 score as a 4-point dog. The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this rivalry game. As if Michigan was not motivated enough to avenge that loss, but their long-time defensive coach, Greg Mattison, defected to Columbus in the offseason to become the co-defensive coordinator for the Buckeyes to pour fuel on the fire of this rivalry. With temperatures in the low-30s for this game, expect a close game. 20* CFB Ohio State-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Michigan Wolverines (368) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (367). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-19 |
Appalachian State v. Troy +11.5 |
Top |
48-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their ugly 53-3 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 13-point underdog. Appalachian State (10-1) has won three straight games with their 35-13 win over Texas State last week as a 28-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: What happened to Troy last week. For starters, they ran into a juggernaut which is that Ragin’ Cajuns team that may very well be the best non-Power Five in the nation this year. Senior quarterback Kaleb Barker also suffered his worst game of the season by throwing two picks and completing just 15 of 32 passes. This team endured a -3 net turnover margin in that contest — but not only have they covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin but they also have covered 18 of their last 24 games after suffering a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. The Trojans were also completing a gauntlet of a schedule that had them on the road for the second straight week as well as the fourth time in five games. Troy should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a loss by at last four touchdowns. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score at least 20 points. This is a proud, veteran team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that finished the season 10-3. Barker leads a passing attack that remains 12th in the nation by averaging 314.0 passing YPG. They return home where they are scoring 47.8 PPG while averaging 520.0 total YPG. They are outscoring their guests by +17.4 PPG while outgaining them by +132.8 net YPG. Troy has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after allowing at least 37 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after allowing at least 50 points in their last contest. Appalachian State has clinched their date with Lafayette next week in the Sun Belt Conference championship game next Saturday — but they need to win this game to secure hosting that game. The Mountaineers also have a chance to represent the Group of Five schools in their automatic bid for a New Year’s Six Bowl — so they will have much to play for in this contest. Yet the pressure of the moment might put this team in a difficult situation. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while they outgained Texas State last week by +260 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards.
FINAL TAKE: Troy has the talent to hang with the Mountaineers as they crushed the lone team to beat Appalachian State this year by a whopping 49-28 margin. The Trojans should put up plenty of points as they have not scored at least 30 points only twice this season. Things could have been much different for this Troy team that has lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The opportunity to pull the upset offers the Trojans not only redemption from last week but a sixth win on the season to become bowl eligible while also giving them a measure of revenge from their 21-10 loss to the Mountaineers last season. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-19 |
Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 |
Top |
30-39 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). THE SITUATION: Virginia (8-3) has won three straight games after their blowout 55-27 win over Liberty last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Virginia Tech (8-3) has won three games in a row with their 28-0 win over Pittsburgh last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The winner of this game between these two teams with 5-2 conference records wins the Coastal Division and will advance to the ACC Championship Game next week. Virginia is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cavaliers raced out to a 24-14 halftime lead in that contest against the Flames — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Virginia is tough to beat when they get their offense cranking given the consistency of their defense. The Cavaliers rank 22nd in the nation by allowing only 323.2 total YPG. Virginia stays at home for this rivalry game where they are a perfect 6-0 while scoring 41.2 PPG. They are outscoring their guests by +20.0 PPG at home while outgaining them by +97.2 net YPG. The Cavaliers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Virginia is scoring 42.0 PPG while averaging a robust 476.3 total YPG. Under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall, the Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 10 points to an ACC rival in their last game. The Hokies have pitched two straight shutouts but these were not against the most powerful offenses in the league against the Panthers and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech held Pittsburgh to just 177 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. But this remains a team that is allowing 394.0 total YPG in their four road games which is why they are being outgained by -24.0 net YPG away from home. The Hokies only generated 263 total yards last week in the win with redshirt sophomore quarterback Hendon Hooker passing for 153 yards. But Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Hokies offense is averaging just 381.4 total YPG which is 86th in the nation. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has dominated this series having won fifteen meetings in a row going back to 2003. The Hokies pulled off a 34-31 upset win over the Cavaliers last year as a 5.5-point favorite. But with Virginia Tech feeling as much pressure in this game as the Cavs — look for the home dog to finally earn a big win in this rivalry (but take the points for some insurance). 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Ole Miss +2.5 v. Mississippi State |
|
20-21 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (311) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (312). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (4-7) has lost four of their last five games with their 58-37 loss to LSU back on November 16th as a 21.5-point underdog. Mississippi State (5-6) has won two of their last three games with their 45-7 win over Abilene Christian last Saturday as a 37-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi has nothing to play for but pride as well as spoiling the bowl plans of their arch-rival. This is a similar setup to Northern Illinois’ upset win over Western Michigan on Tuesday. Expect this Rebels team to play inspired football. They have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. And while the Rebels surrendered 716 total yards to the Tigers’ powerful offense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Mississippi is better than their losing record — they are outgaining their opponents by +25.1 net YPG but have been snake-bit by losing all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. The Rebels have been clicking as of late under offensive coordinator’s Rich Rodriguez’s run-oriented spread offense. They have averaged 495.3 total YPG over their last three games after ripping the LSU defense for a whopping 614 yards of offense. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against SEC opponents. Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 577 yards last week against an FCS opponent, Mississippi State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs host this game but they are just 3-3 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by just +2.5 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Look for a close game that Ole Miss has the opportunity to pull the outright upset in the Egg Bowl. 10* CFB Ole Miss-Mississippi State ESPN Special with the Mississippi Rebels (311) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-19 |
Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois +10.5 |
Top |
14-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (4-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 45-17 upset loss to Eastern Michigan last Tuesday as a 3.5-point favorite. Western Michigan (7-4) has won three straight games with their 37-34 win in overtime at Ohio two Tuesdays ago as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos need to win tonight’s game to clinch a spot in the Mid-American Conference championship game as the winner of the West Division — so this team will be feeling the pressure to succeed. But Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less to a MAC foe. This team has had an extra week to rest and prepare for this crucial game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after their bye week. Western Michigan has only won once away from home this season in five games — they are being outscored on the road by -12.8 PPG due to their defense surrendering 40.4 PPG along with 518.0 total YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois will have a losing season under first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. This game is about their pride and the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. The Huskies can also take some solace in the opportunity to avenge their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan last season. Northern Illinois has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Despite last week’s loss, Northern Illinois is still outscoring their visitors at home by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +94.7 net YPG. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting 7 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan has not won in Dekalb since 2007 — they are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Huskies while failing to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played at Northern Illinois. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
San Diego State +2 v. Hawaii |
|
11-14 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (215) plus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (216). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (8-2) looks to build off their 17-7 win over Fresno State last Friday as a 2-point favorite. Hawaii (7-4) has won their last two games with their 21-7 win at UNLV as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: I have been waiting on two of these late games for updated information. For Boise State-Utah State, I tried to get a better read on the injury front for both teams dealing with injuries at quarterback (and some other key positions) — but with no new information, I am not risking being on the wrong end of who ends up playing and who sits between two head coaches not revealing much about the status of their players. For this San Diego State situation, I wanted to watch line movement (which I often do with some of the plays released close to kickoff). With the Aztecs still listed as a dog in most locations, this is a simple value play behind the strength of Rocky Long’s program. San Diego State is 8th in the nation by allowing 13.7 PPG — and they are 8th in the FBS by allowing just 270.1 total YPG. This is one of the best defensive units Long has had in his nine years with the program. The Aztecs held the Bulldogs last week to just 206 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Defense travels — and San Diego State is 5-0 on the road while holding their home hosts to just 13.6 PPG along with only 294.6 total YPG. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. San Diego State has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on field turf. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They did hold the Rebels to just 237 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 total yards. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: These teams trends indicate this is a solid value play — and the situation is improved with San Diego State motivated to avenge a 31-30 upset loss at home last season to the Rebels as an 18.5-point favorite. The Aztecs are still 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against them in Hawai’i. San Diego State needs this win to clinch their spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game as well. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (215) plus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
Tennessee v. Missouri -2.5 |
|
24-20 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (196) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (195). THE SITUATION: Missouri (5-5) has lost four games in a row with their 23-6 loss to Florida last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Tennessee (5-5) has won three games in a row with their 17-13 upset win at Kentucky as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: After winning five of their first six games, this Missouri team has fallen off the map by losing their last four games by an average score of 25-7. Part of the problem has been that three of those games were all on the road in a row before they finally returned home last week. Then hosting a talented Gators team was not what the doctor ordered for this team last week who was outgained by -130 net yards. The Tigers’ offense has been the problem as they have averaged only 259 total YPG during their losing streak. Some of that decline can be explained by the hamstring injury to quarterback Kelly Bryant. While the former Clemson quarterback did return last week, he only passed for 204 yards after completing 25 of 39 passes. Perhaps Bryant was rusty — or perhaps he is still slowed with that injury. Or, perhaps facing the Gators stout defense was the problem. Now on Senior Night with this team needing one more victory to become bowl eligible, look for the Tigers to play their best offensive game in their last five games. Remember, they were scoring 38.8 PPG while averaging 474 YPG after their first six games. Missouri has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing four games in a row. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Missouri is much better at home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +21.2 net YPG due to an offense that averages 34.7 PPG along with 427.5 total YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games as the favorite. Missouri has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after pulling the upset two weeks ago. The Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while Tennessee has covered the point spread in five straight games as well as six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Volunteers did surrender a whopping 302 rushing yards to the Wildcats — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 300 rushing yards in their last game. Missouri did average 6.43 Yards-Per-Play despite only being on offense for 18:23 minutes in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP. Now this team stays on the road where they are just 1-2 with an average losing margin of -16.3 net PPG due to their anemic offense that scores just 11.0 PPG in those games while averaging 255.3 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on turf.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri does have a strong defense that should stifle this Volunteers offense. The Tigers are 19th in the nation by allowing just 19.5 PPG — and they also rank 9th in total defense by giving up just 297.6 total YPG. Tennessee scores only 23.9 PPG while averaging 343.5 total YPG which is 101st and 109th in the nation. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Missouri Tigers (196) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (195). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
Oregon v. Arizona State +13.5 |
Top |
28-31 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (5-5) has lost four straight games with their 35-34 upset loss at Washington State last week as a 1-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) still has College Football Playoff aspirations after their 34-6 win over Arizona last week as a 27-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks have clinched the Pac-12 North title so they will be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game in two weeks. With the season-ending injury to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon might have the inside track to claim one of the four playoffs spots if they win the rest of their games — but a loss in Tempe who ruin those ambitions. Don’t be surprised if the Ducks feel the pressure in this nationally televised game at night against a feisty Sun Devils team. As it is, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed 20 of 28 passes last week for 333 yards — but Oregon is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while the Ducks held the Wildcats to only 240 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Oregon defense has taken a step back over the last month. While allowing just 14.8 PPG and 306.1 total YPG this season which ranks 10th and 14th in the nation, the Ducks have allowed their last three opponents to score 21.7 PPG while averaging 347.0 total YPG. Oregon also allows their home hosts to average 22.0 PPG while averaging 346.5 total YPG. The Ducks have thrived with a +1.30 net turnover margin per game which is tied for second-best in the nation — but the bouncing ball can be fickle especially with the pressure on in hostile environments. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 games as an underdog under head coach Herm Edwards with the Sun Devils pulling off six straight upset victories. This team has been a double-digit underdog three times in those games with them finished 2-1 ATS while upsetting Michigan State this season as a +15.5 point underdog. Additionally, since 2014, Arizona State has been a double-digit do eleven times — and they have covered the point spread 9 times while pulling off the outright upset six times. The Sun Devils should respond well from their disappointing loss last week as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 3 points or less on the road. Arizona State has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. The Sun Devils should be able to keep up with the Ducks with their offense that has averaged 30.7 PPG over their last three games. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels experienced some growing pains against the outstanding Utah defense four games — but he has since completed 69% of his passes with 9 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his three games since that start.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a close game with the Sun Devils in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
Michigan v. Indiana +10 |
Top |
39-14 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 34-27 loss at Penn State as a 15-point underdog. Michigan (8-2) has won three games in a row with their 44-10 win at home against Michigan State as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a challenging sandwich game for the Wolverines where they may be caught dealing with the emotional letdown of their big in-state rivalry game with the Spartans while possibly looking ahead to their showdown with Ohio State next week. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games preceding their big rivalry game with the Buckeyes — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in these last three situations under head coach Jim Harbaugh. That win against Sparty came on the heels of their 38-7 win at Maryland as a three-touchdown favorite — but the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Michigan has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least five of their last six games. The Wolverines offense has played better as of late — whether as a result of a better understanding of rookie offensive coordinator Josh Gattis’ principles and/or the improved health of quarterback Shea Patterson who was banged up early in the season. Patterson completed 24 of 33 passes last week for 384 yards — but not only has Michigan failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 375 yards in their last game. The Wolverines have scored at least 38 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight contests. The Michigan defense has also played well as they have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing at least 14 points in three straight contests. Now the Wolverines go back on the road where their scoring drops to 28.7 PPG. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Peyton Ramsey was very effective last week as the new starting quarterback after the season-ending injury to Michael Penix, Jr. Ramsey completed 31 of 41 passes for 371 yards against the Nittany Lions’ defense while leading the Hoosiers to 462 yards of offense. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards. This is a dangerous team in the third season under head coach Tom Allen. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against ranked opponents under Allen but remain hungry to pull the straight-up upset having lost their last seventeen games against ranked foes. The Hoosiers are balanced on both sides of the football as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 448.0 total YPG while also ranking 18th in the nation by allowing just 316.3 total YPG. They return home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG due to an offense that scores 33.0 PPG. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: It is Senior Day in Bloomington with the Hoosiers honoring sixteen seniors whose career will be capped by pulling the upset this afternoon. The Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Indiana which includes a loss in Ann Arbor in overtime in Allen’s first year with the program. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Year with the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-19 |
Colorado State +6 v. Wyoming |
|
7-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (113) plus the points versus Wyoming Cowboys (114). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (4-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 38-21 loss at home to the Air Force as a 10-point underdog. Wyoming (6-4) has lost their last two games with their 26-21 loss at Utah State last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State should respond with a strong effort after their bad loss last week as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread setback. Junior quarterback Patrick O’Brien did have a good game against the Falcons as he completed 28 of 43 passes for 347 passes in the loss. Colorado State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. O’Brien is leading an offense that is 12th in the nation by averaging 315.7 passing YPG — and he should have success with his arm against a Cowboys defense that is allowing 282.1 passing YPG which is 120th in the FBS. Colorado State goes back on the road where they are scoring 33.0 PPG while averaging a robust 455.4 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against conference opponents. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Wyoming was fortunate to be in as close a game as they were with the Aggies last week as they were outgained by -103 net yards after surrendering 448 total yards. The Cowboys scored on a 10-yard interception which helped them keep it closer than expected. But Wyoming still committed four turnovers in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. Moving forward, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Despite their 6-4 record, the Cowboys are being outgained by -26.4 net YPG this season. The Rams, on the other hand, are outgaining their opponents by +69.3 net YPG. The offensive prowess of this Colorado State team should keep this game close. 10* CFB Colorado State-Wyoming ESPN2 Special with the Colorado State Rams (113) plus the points versus Wyoming Cowboys (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-19 |
Toledo +9.5 v. Buffalo |
|
30-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (105) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (106). THE SITUATION: Toledo (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 31-28 upset loss at home to Northern Illinois as a 1.5-point favorite. Buffalo (5-5) had their three-game winning streak end last Thursday in their 30-27 upset loss at Kent State where they were a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulls were leading 24-6 to the Golden Flashes in the 4th quarter last week in a game I gave up on (we had Kent State) — yet they collapsed to lose that game. Not only did that loss help Miami (OH) clinch the Mid-American Conference East Division but it put Buffalo’s bowl aspirations in jeopardy as they will likely have to win their last two games to reach seven wins to ensure a bowl bid this year. This is a situation ripe for a big emotional hangover after last week’s disappointing finish. As it is, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a loss by 7 points or less against a Mid-American Conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less to conference opponent. Buffalo did rush for 245 yards last week in the loss but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. But now the Bulls return home where they are averaging only 346.7 total YPG which is -21.3 net YPG below their season average which ranks 98th in the nation. Buffalo is 5th in the nation in run defense by allowing just 88.4 rushing YPG. They have not allowed more than 119 rushing yards in each of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least three straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Toledo should respond better to their upset loss last week with one win ensure they will be invited to a bowl game. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. Furthermore, Toledo has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Rockets did generate 508 yards last week while outgaining the Huskies by +64 net yards. Toledo has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rockers have outgained their last three opponents by +56.7 net YPG due to their offense averaging 498.3 total YPG. Junior quarterback Eli Peters continues to improve — he completed 26 of 38 passes for 300 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions last week against Northern Illinois.
FINAL TAKE: Toledo has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Expect a close game with the Rockets having the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Toledo-Buffalo ESPN2 Special with the Toledo Rockets (105) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-19 |
Eastern Michigan +5 v. Northern Illinois |
|
45-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (103) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (5-5) had their two-game losing streak with their 42-14 win at Akron last Tuesday as a 17-point favorite. Northern Illinois (4-6) has won two of their last three games with their 31-28 win at Toledo last Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Huskies remain alive in the Mid-American Conference West division race as they tied for third place with a 3-3 record but just one game behind Central Michigan and Western Michigan with a game with the Broncos on deck next week. Northern Illinois may get caught looking ahead to that important showdown. As it is, the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Northern Illinois defense has shown cracks as of late — the Rockets generated 508 yards of offense last week after the Huskies surrendered 627 yards the week before against Central Michigan. Northern Illinois allowed those two opponents to average 8.20 and 6.68 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. The Huskies have not done well when favored as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Eastern Michigan may be out of the MAC West race with their 2-4 record but they remain motivated to win one more game to become bowl eligible for the third time in four seasons. The Eagles have been capable road warriors as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games away from home. Led by senior quarterback Mike Glass III, Eastern Michigan is scoring 28.8 PPG whole averaging 403.0 total YPG in their six games on the road. Led by a rushing attack that churned out 252 yards last week, the Eagles generated 498 total yards of offense. Eastern Michigan has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Eagles are dangerous underdogs as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road when getting the points. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when getting 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played at Northern Illinois. They should revel in the opportunity to spoil the Huskies’ MAC championship game aspirations. 10* CFB Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois ESPN2 Special with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (103) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 |
Top |
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). THE SITUATION: Baylor (9-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 29-23 win in overtime at TCU as a 1-point favorite. Oklahoma (8-1) survived a 42-41 win at home against Iowa State as a 14-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor demonstrated grit to rally from a 9-0 halftime deficit on the road to a good Horned Frogs team before pulling that game out in overtime. The Bears may lose this game — but they will go down fighting in what should be a one-possession game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Bears have struggled on offense over the last two weeks by scoring only 26 combined points in regulation over their last two games. But this remains a team that is 26th in the nation by averaging 35.3 PPG — and they score 38.4 PPG at home in Waco while generating 490.6 total YPG. Turnovers have played a role in these last two games as they have given the ball up five times in those contests. They now host this Sooners team that has not earned even one takeaway in their last five games. And what has kept head coach Matt Rhule’s team undefeated this season is the strong play of their defense. Baylor ranks 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.0 PPG — and they are 31st in the nation by allowing just 337.4 total YPG. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. Oklahoma had failed to over the pint spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. The Sooners defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this program in the Lincoln Riley era — and they have allowed 903 yards of offense which has translated into 99 combined points in their last two games. The Cyclones generated 477 yards against them last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. But new concerns have developed with their offense as of late. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has become too reliant on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb as his go-to target — he has caught thirteen balls over the last two weeks — which has made the Riley offense a bit too predictable. The play of the offensive line has not been as strong as in previous seasons either with Hurts facing pressure from opposing pass rushers. Now this team goes on the road where they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games — and they are just 1-3-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with winning record at home. Furthermore, the Sooners are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma is just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games under Riley when favored in a regular-season game. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog in the Rhule era with five of those games resulting in an outright upset victory. The Bears are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as a dog. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Minnesota v. Iowa -3 |
Top |
19-23 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). THE SITUATION: Iowa (6-3) saw their two-game losing streak snapped last Saturday with their narrow 24-22 loss at Wisconsin as a 7.5-point underdog. Minnesota (9-0) remained undefeated last week with their 31-26 upset win over Penn State as a 6.5-point home underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: It was tempting for a majority of bettors last week to fade the Golden Gophers considering a slew of factors that had them fortunate to still be unbeaten heading into their showdown with the Nittany Lions. Minnesota had orchestrated a slew of comeback victories albeit against dubious opponents like Fresno State in which they needed double overtime to win that game. Their strength of schedule had been very light with Nebraska possibly being their best opponent (according to the laptops) and Illinois offering their stiffest defensive challenge. Remarkably, the Golden Gophers had not played a full game against a team that did not need to use their backup quarterback since the second game of the season. But I still considered Minnesota a dangerous home underdog against an (overrated) Penn State team in what was their biggest game yet in the P.J. Fleck era as a head coach. Fleck is a great football coach who has quickly put his stamp on the culture of this Golden Gophers program after previously building Western Michigan into a non-Power Five conference powerhouse. Yet Minnesota was very fortunate to pull off the upset last week as they needed three interceptions in the Red Zone to stifle Nittany Lion drives and overcome getting outgained by -58 net yards. The Minnesota defense was exposed along the way by surrendering a whopping 518 yards at home to the Penn State offense. This Golden Gophers team has now won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But the assignment gets even tougher with this trip to Iowa City to play in Kinnick Stadium where they have not won more than once in the last thirty years. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. The Golden Gophers has had Lady Luck on their side all season — they are 13th in the nation by averaging +0.78 net turnovers per game this year. But the bouncing football can be fickle as to where it travels — especially in hostile environments. Minnesota has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight contests. Iowa is just 1-3 in games decided by one scoring possession — so a few lucky breaks going their way would have dramatically changed the stakes they have in this game. Yet they can still play the role of spoiler which this Hawkeyes program often relishes when playing at home. They return home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a two-game road stand. Iowa plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation by allowing just 11.7 PPG. They are 10th in the nation in total defense by surrendering only 288.9 total YPG with a balanced unit that is 20th in the FBS against the run (111.3 rushing YPG) and 10th against the pass (177.6 passing YPG). Their three losses have been decided by a mere 14 combined points. They are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 PPG due to their offense that plays much better in those friendly environments where they are scoring 30.8 PPG along averaging 453.0 total YPG. Iowa has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as the favorite — and they are a perfect 6-0 straight-up while covering the point spread in 5 of those 6 games when favored by no more than 3 points since 2015. The Hawkeyes also do a great job in protecting the football as they have only committed two combined turnovers in their last three-games after turning the ball over once against the Badgers. Iowa has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. And while the Hawkeyes have won the turnover battle in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in at least two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa won last year’s battle for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy with their 48-31 win at Minnesota in a game where junior quarterback Nate Stanley passed for 314 yards with four touchdowns. Stanley will certainly be confident he can lead his team to another victory today. Look for the Gophers’ luck to run out and their bubble to burst. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Indiana +16 v. Penn State |
|
27-34 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (326) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (325). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-2) takes the field again after their 34-3 win at home over Northwestern two weeks ago as an 8.5-point favorite. Penn State (8-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week with their 31-26 upset loss at Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Nittany Lions had their bubble burst last week with that defeat to the Golden Gophers. As it is, Penn State is 2-12-3 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up loss. The Nittany Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss against a Big Ten foe where they were favored by at least 6 points. Penn State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference rival. I have considered sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford a bit overrated after a soft opening five games to the season that fluffed up his numbers. Clifford completed only 23 of 43 passes last week while throwing three devastating interceptions in the Red Zone. The Nittany Lions have faced three quality defenses over the last three weeks against Michigan, Michigan State, and the Gophers — and they are scoring 27.3 PPG along with averaging 367.7 YPG which is -9.8 PPG and -65.1 YPG below their season average. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning four of their last five contests. This team suffered a tough injury with the season-ending shoulder injury to sophomore Michael Penix, Jr. But head coach Tom Allen has a capable backup in junior Peyton Ramsey who made all twelve starts last season for this team. This is a team on the rise under Allen’s leadership who have played Michigan and Ohio State very tough over the last few seasons. The Hoosiers are an ugly 1-48 straight-up in their last forty-nine games against ranked opponents but they are also 7-3 ATS in those last ten opportunities with three straight point spread covers versus ranked opponents. Indiana ranks 33rd in the nation by scoring 33.0 PPG. But what makes this team dangerous is their play on defense as they are allowing only 20.0 PPG which is 23rd in the nation — and they also rank 16th in the nation by allowing only 310.2 total YPG. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow Big Ten foes.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana is already destined to break their 27-year bowl drought later this season — but this is an opportunity to finally register a signature victory. Penn State may be hungover from their deflating loss last week — and they may be looking ahead to Ohio State next week. 10* CFB Indiana-Penn State ABC-TV Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (326) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (325). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Michigan State +14 v. Michigan |
|
10-44 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (387) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (388). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-5) has lost four straight games with their 37-34 upset loss at home to Illinois as a 15.5-point favorite last week. Michigan (7-2) comes off a 38-7 win at Maryland two weeks ago as a 21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State may have hit rock bottom last week by blowing a 31-10 4th quarter lead. But there is nothing like the opportunity to find redemption by playing a bitter rival. As it is, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. If there was a silver lining in that game with the Fighting Illini, it was that Sparty got their offense going by generating 526 yards against a solid Illinois defense. Michigan State scored 28 points in the first half last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after scoring at least 24 first-half points in their last game. Sparty generated 27 first downs last week while controlling the clock for 37:44 minutes in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home — and they have coved the point spread 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 42.5 to 45. Michigan has responded to their 7-point loss at Penn State with a 45-14 win at home against Penn State before last week’s victory. But the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last two contests by at least four touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 37 points in two straight games. And while Michigan has covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Wolverines return home to the Big House where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a bye week.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings against the Wolverines while pulling the upset eight times. Sparty has also covered the point spread in their last 5 games against Michigan when playing in Ann Arbor. 10* CFB Michigan State-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (387) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-19 |
Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -3.5 |
|
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (316) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (315). THE SITUATION: Marshall (6-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 win at Rice as an 11.5-point favorite back on November 2nd. Louisiana Tech (8-1) has won eight straight games with their 52-17 win over North Texas last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD MINUS THE POINTS: Upon my first look at this game, this appeared to be a letdown situation for this Louisiana Tech team who has their last four games by more than two touchdowns including a 42-21 win at UTEP two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory over a conference opponent by at least 35 points. Louisiana Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by at least 21 points. And while the Bulldogs held the Mean Green last week to just 74 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. But this situation became worthy of investment after the Louisiana Tech Athletic Department suspended quarterback J’Mar Smith, wide receiver Adrian Hardy, and linebacker James Jackson for internal violation of their guidelines. Hardy is the team’s leading receiver but the loss of Smith is devastating. The three-year starting quarterback was completing 65.1% of his passes with 14 touchdown passes and just four interceptions during his senior year while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt. He will be replaced by redshirt freshman Aaron Allen who has attempted only nine passes this season. Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium for this nationally televised night game was already going to be a difficult assignment before asking their backup quarterback to make his first career start. The Bulldogs average 38.1 PPG this season — but that number drops almost 10 full points to 28.5 PPG in their four games on the road. Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 27 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Marshall covered the point spread two weeks ago for just the second time in their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games including covering point spread expectations in five of these last seven situations. The Thundering Herd returns home after the benefit of a bye week where they are 4-1 this season. Marshall is scoring 32.0 PPG at home this year while outgaining their opponents by +76.0 net YPG — so it will be asking a lot of Allen to keep up with the Thundering Herd offense. Marshall is 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams control their fate to win their respective divisions in Conference USA to reach the conference championship game. It is possible that a Marshall victory could set up a rematch of these two teams in that Championship Game. Led by ten-year head coach Doc Holliday, the Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Friday night. 10* CFB Louisiana Tech-Marshall CBS Sports Network Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (316) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-19 |
Buffalo v. Kent State +6 |
|
27-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (312) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (311). THE SITUATION: Kent State (3-6) has lost three straight games after their 35-33 loss at Toledo back on November 5th as a 3-point underdog. Buffalo (5-4) has won three straight games with their 43-14 win at Eastern Michigan as a 1-point favorite on November 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: There are a few reasons to suspect that this Kent State team is a bit better than their underlying numbers suggest. Their non-conference schedule including road games at Arizona State, Auburn, and Wisconsin. When only looking at their conference statistics, the Golden Flashes are outscoring their opponents by +9.8 PPG while outgaining them by +38.8 net YPG. Second-year head coach Sean Lewis oversaw a 2-10 team last year that suffered four losses by one scoring possession. Fifteen starters are back from that team — and they have lost three straight games by a touchdown or less. But these losses were against three of the better teams in the Mid-American Conference in Ohio, Miami (OH), and then the Rockets last week — so this team has been very competitive after a very tough non-conference schedule. Kent State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing their last two games to conference foes. Additionally, the Golden Flashes have endured a front-loaded schedule that had then play away from home in six of their first nine games. Now they return home to play for only the fourth time this season — and just their third time at home in conference play. Kent State has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Furthermore, the Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in MAC play. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 28 points. And while they raced out to a 29-7 halftime lead in their last game against the Eagles, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a halftime lead of 17 or more points. The Bulls held Eastern Michigan to just 25 rushing yards which helped them outrush them by +227 net yards. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +225 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. And while the Bulls have not allowed more than 73 rushing yards in each of their last three games after allowing Ohio to generate 186 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo had eight starters return from last year’s 10-2 team that blew out this Golden Flashes team by a 48-14 score — but Kent State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Buffalo-Kent State CBS Sports Network Special with the Kent State Golden Flashes (312) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-19 |
Northern Illinois +3 v. Toledo |
|
31-28 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (307) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (308). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (3-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-10 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 1-point favorite back on November 2nd. Toledo (6-3) has won their last two games after their 35-33 win over Kent State as a 3-point favorite back on November 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois is realistically out of the Mid-American Conference West division title race — but they still have bowl aspirations. Look for this team to respond with a strong effort after their embarrassing loss to the Chippewas under first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. The Huskies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 251 yards of offense against Central Michigan, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois 615 total yards in a terrible defensive effort in that game with 288 of those yards in the air — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This was a surprising effort considering that they had only allowed 244.5 total YPG in their last previous two games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games played in November. Furthermore, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. Toledo may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 35 points in a win over a Mid-American Conference foe. And while Toledo generated 289 rushing yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. But defense remains a big concern for this team that ranks 118th in the nation by allowing 467.7 total YPG. The Rockets have allowed at least 33 points in three straight games while surrendering an average of 487.3 total YPG in those contests. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. And while the Rockets have played three straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after playing at least two straight Overs — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in six of these last seven situations.
FINAL TAKE: Toledo is being outgained by -18.5 net YPG this season but they have won all five of their close games that were decided by one scoring possession. Northern Illinois has lost three games decided by 8 points or less this year. While defending their MAC Championship from last year is likely no longer in the cards, the Huskies can still play the role of spoiler against their Mid-American Conference rival. 10* CFB Northern Illinois-Toledo ESPN2 Special with the Northern Illinois Huskies (307) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-19 |
Western Michigan v. Ohio +1 |
|
37-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 24-21 upset loss at home to Miami (OH) as a 7-point favorite. Western Michigan (6-4) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four games with their 35-31 win over Ball State last Tuesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Ohio outplayed the Redhawks in that game last week — they outgained them by a 374 to 278 yardage margin while controlling the clock for over 36 minutes and they won the first down battle by a 25 to 14 margin. A -2 net turnover margin played a big role in the Bobcats downfall. But Ohio has rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. The Bobcats have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, Ohio has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Western Michigan may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a victory over a conference rival. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two of their last three games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 this season with an average losing margin of -16.8 PPG. Western Michigan allows their home hosts to score 42.0 PPG along with averaging 537.2 total YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. And in their last 5 games in November, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: The weather will be very cold tonight in Athens with the temperatures dropping into the teens. Ohio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Western Michigan-Ohio ESPN2 Special with the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
Nevada v. San Diego State -17 |
|
17-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (197). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (7-1) has won four straight games with their 20-17 win at UNLV as a 10.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Nevada (5-4) snapped a two-game losing streak last week with their 21-10 win over New Mexico as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State are favorites in the 17-point range despite having an offense that averages just 21.8 PPG. That may make it look easy to take the underdogs in this contest but I am going to trust the wisdom of the oddsmakers in setting this line. The Aztecs are not going to surrender many points in this game — they rank 8th in the FBS by allowing just 14.1 PPG and they also rank 12th in the nation by surrendering just 283.5 total YPG. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. While the Aztecs are playing very conservatively on offense, the flip side of that coin is that they have only turned the ball over four times this season — and never more than once in a game. San Diego State has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. The Aztecs are also 11-5-1 in their last 17 games played in November. Nevada may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory at home. The Wolf Pack have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Now this team goes back on the road — with a redshirt freshman quarterback in Carson Strong who has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) this season — where they are just 1-3. Nevada is being outscored by -27.2 PPG and outgained by -135.5 net YPG on the road this season as they are scoring just 14.0 PPG in these games while allowing their home hosts to generate 449.5 total YPG along with 41.2 PPG. The Wolf Pack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Nevada has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 17.5 to 21 points. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Mountain West Conference opponents — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego State will also be looking to avenge a 28-24 upset loss at Nevada last October 27th where they were laying two points. But the Wolf Pack are just 2-5-1 ATS still in their last 8 meetings with the Aztecs which includes them being 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games played at San Diego State. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
Wyoming v. Boise State -12.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). THE SITUATION: Boise State (7-1) rebounded from their 3-point loss at BYU last week with a 52-42 win at San Jose State last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Wyoming (6-2) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-3 win over Nevada as a 12-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s victory over the Wolf Pack was preceded by a 23-10 win at home over New Mexico the previous week — but that might be setting them up for a letdown now. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two straight games by at least 10 points against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. Now Wyoming goes back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season while being outgained by -98.0 total YPG. This Cowboys team typically enjoys a nice home-field advantage when playing in the high altitude in Laramie — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Compounding the matter for this Wyoming team is that they lost their starting quarterback, Sean Chambers, to a season-ending knee injury in that victory over Nevada. Tyler Vander Waal takes over again under center after completing just 3 of 10 passes against the Wolf Pack after the Chambers injury. Vander Waal was initially the starting quarterback last year but after an 0-4 start where the Cowboys were scoring only 11.5 PPG, he was benched for Chambers. Vander Waal made nine starts last year but eclipsed 200 passing yards only twice in those games. Perhaps the biggest spark that Chambers provided this team was with his mobility — he has rushed for 567 yards with 10 touchdowns on the ground this season. Wyoming is only completing 40.6% of their passes this season so the lack of mobility with Vander Waal limits the Cowboys’ effectiveness in obvious passing situations. Wyoming will be challenged by a stout Broncos run defense that is tied for 23rd in the nation by allowing only 116.3 rushing YPG. Boise State should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Boise State has not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Broncos did generate 468 yards last week — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the defense has been an issue for this team as of late as they surrendered 497 yards to the Spartans. Boise State is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards in four straight games which should serve them well against this Cowboys team — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Boise State returns home where they are 4-0 with an averaging winning margin of +18.8 PPG. The Broncos are scoring 37.0 PPG at home while limiting their guests to just 18.2 PPG along with only 302.2 total YPG — they are outgaining their visitors by +148.0 net YPG. Boise State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. With the Broncos still controlling their fate to reach the Mountain West Conference championship game, look for them to secure a dominant victory against an undermanned Cowboys offense. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
Iowa v. Wisconsin -7.5 |
|
22-24 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (194) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (193). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (6-2) has lost two straight games after their 38-7 win at Ohio State two weeks ago as a 14.5-point underdog. Iowa (6-2) has won two straight games after their 20-0 win at Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: It was just three short weeks ago that this Wisconsin team was considering as possible one of the best this football team has ever assembled in school history. Then the Badgers were upset at Illinois as a 29-point favorite in what was considered them looking ahead to their showdown with the Buckeyes. In hindsight, that Fighting Illini team appears to be much improved under former NFL head coach Lovie Smith than we realized at the time. Wisconsin then did not have the talent to keep up with Ohio State for 60 full minutes two weeks ago — but this team should be ready to play good football again this afternoon especially with their Big Ten Championship Game aspirations still very much alive. The Badgers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after their bye week. The Badgers return home to Madison for the first time since October 12th where they shut out Michigan State by a 38-0 score. Wisconsin is 5-0 at home this year where they are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 450.2 total YPG — and they are holding their guests to only 5.8 PPG along with just 177.0 total YPG. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while they held the Wildcats to just 202 total yards two weeks ago, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game. Now this team goes on the road again where they are scoring just 13.7 PPG along with averaging only 292.0 total YPG. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawkeyes have not been a very good underdog as of late. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when they were getting the points as the dog. Iowa has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road as the underdog where they (obviously) also lost all seven games. 20* CFB Iowa-Wisconsin Fox-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (194) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
LSU v. Alabama -5.5 |
|
46-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (168) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (167). THE SITUATION: Alabama (8-0) takes the field again after their 48-7 win over Arkansas as a 32-point favorite two weeks ago. LSU (8-0) comes off a 23-20 win over Auburn back on October 26th where they were 11.5-point favorites at home.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: It looks like Tua Tagovailoa will play in this game after taking part in practice this week. Head coach Nick Saban has been cagey about his status — his mobility will likely be not at 100%. Tagovailoa underwent the same tight rope procedure on his ankle as he did last December which allowed him to play in the National Semifinals against Clemson. Most importantly for the Crimson Tide offense, Tagovailoa should be able to execute the Alabama passing attack that ranks 5th in the nation by averaging 338.0 passing YPG. The Crimson Tide are scoring 50.6 PPG while averaging 504.4 total YPG at home this year. They have scored at least 35 points in all eight of their games this season — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in at least five straight games. This offense has also done an outstanding job of protecting the football as they have only turned the ball over five times this year while never turning the ball over more than once in their eight games. Saban’s teams are very tough to beat when they protect the football as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not turning the ball over more than once in three straight games. The freshmen linebackers who have been pressed into duty early this season are also continuing to improve. Over their last three games, the Tide are surrendering just 277.7 total YPG which is -29.8 total YPG better than their season average. LSU did gain 508 yards against the Auburn defense two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers get off schedule in this game and face more 2nd/3rd and long situations than they have been used to. LSU is not gaining positive yards in 17% of their rushing attempts this season (38th in the nation) — and quarterback Joe Burrow is getting sacked on 6% of standard passing downs which is 81st in the FBS. Joe Brady is getting plenty of accolades of him bringing in a sophisticated passing attack to this team after serving as an assistant offensive coach for the New Orleans Saints — but the shotgun heavy scheme has struggled in the Red Zone close to the goal line. The Tigers rank 50th in the Success Rate once inside the 10-yard line — and they rank 80th in Success Rate when reaching 1st-and-Goal. This is not a good sign for a team that has scored only 26 combined points in their last four meetings with Alabama. LSU has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when getting 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Saban has a big edge in coaching expertise with his staff over the Tigers under Ed Orgeron (even with Brady who is not calling plays). The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Tide. And Saban makes sure the LSU showdown occurs in as optimal of conditions as possible. This is Alabama’s third straight home game as they have been at home in Tuscaloosa since their game at Texas A&M on October 12th. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games after playing their last two games at home. And the Tide have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after their bye week. The extra time will help them scheme against the Brady passing attack — but they were already familiar with that approach which is not uncommon outside the LSU football offices before this season. 10* CFB LSU-Alabama CBS-TV Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (168) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (167). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-19 |
Washington -9.5 v. Oregon State |
|
19-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (115) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (116). THE SITUATION: Washington (5-4) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 33-28 loss at home to Utah last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. Oregon State (4-4) has two games in a row with their 56-38 upset victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Beavers have won two straight games via upset as they preceded their victory over the Wildcats with a 21-17 upset win at Cal as a double-digit dog. Oregon State may be due for an emotional letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Beavers did not force a turnover against Arizona last week either — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after a game where they did not force a turnover. Now after playing their last two games on the road, this team returns home where they are just 1-3 with their lone victory being against FCS opponent Cal-Poly SLO. Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Behind sixth-year senior quarterback Jake Luton, the Beavers can put points up on the board — they are averaging 33.6 PPG. But defense remains a problem for this Beavers team that returned nine starters from a unit that was 128th in the FBS by both allowing 45.7 PPG and by giving up 536.8 total YPG. Oregon State has only mildly improved on that side of the ball this season as they are allowing 32.4 PPG along with 439.3 total YPG which is tied for 104th and 104th respectively. Moving forward, the Beavers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Friday night. Washington had not allowed more than 20 points in each of their first five games but they have surrendered 68 combined points in their last two contests. The Huskies have played three straight games Over the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Washington needs to get back to running the football after Salvon Ahmed ran the ball only 14 times last week. Ahmed is still averaging 89 rushing YPG this season — and while the Huskies managed only 53 rushing yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. While Washington’s inexperienced defense that returned only two starters from last year has taken a step back by allowing 375.3 total YPG (55th in the nation), the offense should score plenty of points against the suspect Beavers’ defense. Georgia transfer Jacob Eason leads an offense that is scoring 34.9 PPG which is 29th in the nation — and the Huskies are 39th int he nation by generating 257.3 passing YPG. Washington also averages 36.3 PPG along with 407.0 total YPG when playing on the road. Eason completed 29 of 52 passes for 316 yards against the stout Utah defense last week — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on a Friday night — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Washington-Oregon State FS1-TV Special with the Washington Huskies (115) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-19 |
Temple -1.5 v. South Florida |
Top |
17-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (111) minus the point(s) versus the South Florida Bulls (112). THE SITUATION: Temple (5-3) has lost two in a row after their 63-21 loss to Central Florida back on October 26th as an 11-point underdog. South Florida (4-4) has won three of their last four games with their 45-20 win at East Carolina as a 1-point favorite on October 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for first-year head coach Rod Carey with the bad loss at home to Central Florida preceded by a 45-21 loss at SMU the previous week. Carey does have the benefit of extra time and preparation for this game to right the proverbial ship of this Owls team. He inherited a group that has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Temple has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 58 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Owls managed only 266 yards of offense against the Knights — but they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Temple also surrendered 614 yards to Central Florida in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. This remains a quality team that upset the Memphis team last month that handed the Mustangs their first loss of the season last week. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in November. South Florida may be due for a letdown for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. This team is also just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a bye week. The Bulls’ success against the Pirates in their last game was propelled by their rushing for 347 yards which took the pressure off redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan McCloud who has been pressed into duty after the September season-ending injury to returning starter Blake Barnett. McCloud only attempted 12 passes in that victory — but South Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bulls are averaging just 172.9 passing YPG which is 110th in the nation. Now South Florida returns home where they are just 2-2 this season with an average losing margin of -8.3 PPG along with being outgained by -118.5 net YPG. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: South Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They raced out to a 7-1 start last season before folding down the stretch with six straight losses where they were outscored by -19.2 PPG under head coach Charlie Strong. Look for Temple to rebound with a big win for them on the road. 5* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Temple Owls (111) minus the point(s) versus the South Florida Bulls (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-19 |
Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 |
|
24-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (106) minus the points versus the Miami (OH) Redhawks (105). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-4) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 34-21 upset win at Ball State as a 1.5-point underdog back on October 26th. Miami (OH) (4-4) has also won three of their last four games after their 23-16 win at Kent State as a 2.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago on October 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio opened the season by losing their first three games with a very challenging non-conference schedule at Pittsburgh and Marshall while hosting a tough Louisiana-Lafayette team. But their 75-year old head coach Frank Solich continues to teach with his staff always developing his players for what usually results in stronger second halves of the season in his fifteen years with the program. The Bobcats won six of their last seven games last year culminating in a 27-0 win over San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl. Ohio’s upset victory over the Cardinals on the road last week is likely a harbinger for more good things to come for this team. The Bobcats bad covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after pulling off an upset victory — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home after an upset victory. Furthermore, Ohio has covered the point spread 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The development of skill players on offense was a concern for this team entering the season — but Ohio has scored at least 34 points in each of their last three games while averaging 38.3 PPG and 485.3 total YPG in those contests. Those numbers are very close to last year’s 40.1 PPG and 466.8 total YPG averages that ranked 12th and 14th in the FBS. The Bobcats still have quarterback Nathan Rourke under center — the senior is averaging 284.9 total YPG this season after rushing for 127 yards last week in the win at Ball State. Solich will want his defense to play better after they allowed 240 rushing yards last week. Ohio has allowed their last two opponents to average 6.42 and 6.43 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — but the Bobcats have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.25 YPPG and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, Ohio has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing at least three straight against conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season. Miami is also showing the benefits of a difficult non-conference schedule. The Redhawks opened the season with losses to Iowa, Ohio State, and Cincinnati but have pulled off two straight upset victories in a 27-24 win against Northern Illinois two weeks ago as a 2-point underdog before their upset win last week against the Golden Flashes. But this team may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after a bye week. And while the Redhawks offense averaged 6.49 YPP in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Miami is quarterbacked by a true freshman in Brett Gabbert (Blaine’s brother) — but he is completing only 53.1% of his passes while throwing five touchdown passes along with five interceptions. Those are ominous numbers for a team staying on the road where they are 1-4 this season while being outscored by -24.6 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Solich should have his team ready to play tonight with the memory of their 30-28 upset loss to Miami last year by a 30-28 score despite being a 4.5-point favorite. Look for Ohio to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 10* CFB Miami (OH)-Ohio ESPN2 Special with the Ohio Bobcats (106) minus the points versus the Miami (OH) Redhawks (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-19 |
Ball State +7 v. Western Michigan |
|
31-35 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (103) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (104). THE SITUATION: Ball State (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped back on October 26th with their 34-21 upset loss at home to Ohio where they were 1.5-point favorites. Western Michigan (5-4) has won two of their last three games with their 49-10 win over Bowling Green on October 26th as a 26.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan has been consistently inconsistent as of late — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Broncos stay at home for what is their last home game of the season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored in the 3.5 to 10 point range — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight home games when favored by 7 points or less. Ball State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Cardinals did average 6.38 Yards-Per-Play against the Bobcats after averaging 8.66 YPP in their 52-14 blowout win over Toledo in their previous game. The Cardinals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Junior quarterback Drew Plitt has been steady by completing 64.9% of his passes for 1977 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions — but he has thrown only one interception over his last three games. He should keep Ball State in a position to win this game against this Broncos defense that ranks 99th in the nation by allowing 252.3 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 road games as an underdog getting 7 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Kalamazoo against the Broncos. 10* CFB Ball State-Western Michigan ESPN2 Special with the Ball State Cardinals (103) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Fresno State +2.5 v. Hawaii |
|
41-38 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (395) plus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (396). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (3-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 41-31 upset loss to Colorado State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Hawai’i (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 45-31 win at New Mexico where they were laying 10 points as the favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State should bounce-back with a strong effort as they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a loss. The Bulldogs allowed the Rams to generate 500 total yards in that game with 322 of those yards in the air. Fresno State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 yards in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record, Fresno State is 16-5-1 ATS. Hawai’i has not been consistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They also are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while the Rainbow Warriors surrendered 500 yards to the Lobos, they are then 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games after giving up at least 450 yards in their last game. Hawai’i returns home where they have not retained much of a home-field advantage.
|
11-02-19 |
Army +17 v. Air Force |
|
13-17 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (363) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (364). THE SITUATION: Army (3-5) has suffered four losses in a row after their 34-29 upset loss to San Jose State last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. Air Force (6-2) has won their last three games with their 31-7 win over Utah State as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This has been a frustrating stretch for sixth-year head coach Jeff Monken with his team suffering three straight upset losses. Army were road favorites against Western Kentucky then Georgia State and lost both of those games before coming home last week and playing flat in their loss to the Spartans. The Black Knights were still suffering the emotional letdown of two straight upset losses in the first half of that game as they went into halftime trailing by a 23-10 score. Army eventually outgained San Jose State by a 429 to 403 yardage margin but lost the turnover battle. Nothing like facing a fellow service academy opponent to raise the spirits of this Black Knights’ team with the Commander’s Trophy still very much alive for this team that finished 11-2 last season after rattling off nine straight victories. Army has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after suffering an upset loss at home. And while the Black Knights rushed for 326 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight road games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Army has only covered the point spread twice this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Now the Black Knights go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Air Force’s victory over the Aggies feel well below the 60 point Total in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Falcons have each of their last three games while covering the point spread as the favorite. But Air Force has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering point spread expectations in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning and covering the point spread in three straight contests as the favorite. The Falcons have not allowed more than 82 rushing yards in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in three straight contests. The last team to topple that mark was Navy in the first Saturday of last month who upset the Falcons by a 34-25 score — and Army will be operating a similar offense of that of the Midshipmen in this game. Air Force has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Army enjoyed three net close wins decided by 8 points or less last season — but they have already lost three games decided by one scoring possession including a double-overtime heartbreaker at the Big House against Michigan. This remains a talented Black Knights team that defeated the Falcons last year by a 17-14 score. Expect a close game with Army playing their best game in a month. 10* CFB Army-Air Force CBS Sports Network Special with the Army Black Knights (363) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -14 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (304) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (303). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (7-0) remained undefeated this season with their 30-3 win at South Alabama last Saturday as a 27.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (4-3) has won three straight games after their 41-7 win over New Mexico State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after win on the road against a conference rival. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. This is a loaded team for first-year head coach Eyah Drinkowitz with fifteen starters back from the group that finished 11-2 last year. Reigning Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year, quarterback Zac Thomas, is completing 66.7% of his passes this season while averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt. Appalachian State is 9th in the nation by averaging 41.0 PPG. While Thomas has kept opposing defenses honest with his arm, the Mountaineers are 14th in the nation by averaging 244.1 rushing YPG. On defense, Appalachian State is 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.0 PPG. The Mountaineers held the Jaguars last week to just 139 total yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Appalachian State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers return home where they are 4-0 while outscoring their opponents by +27.5 PPG due to their offense that is averaging 51.5 PPG along with 476.0 total YPG. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia Southern is considered better than their record given injuries they sustained in the early part of the season — headlined by three-year starter Shai Werts at quarterback. Werts’ return to the field helped trigger their three-game winning streak — but this team was fortunate to survive a two overtime game with South Alabama and a three overtime thriller with Coastal Carolina before their easy win over the Aggies last week. The Eagles have rushed for at least 310 yards in three straight games while outrushing all three of these opponents by at least 175 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least 125 yards. But Georgia Southern is one dimensional as they are averaging just 48.7 passing YPG which is last in the nation. They will be trying to run against a solid Mountaineers run defense that holds their opponents to just 3.89 Yards-Per-Carry. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they are just 1-2 while being outscored by -17.4 PPG and being outgained by -139 total YPG. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won thirteen straight games with their last loss being at Georgia Southern where they were upset by a 34-14 score despite being an 11-point favorite back on October 25th. The Mountaineers should be very motivated to avenge that loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (304) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Arizona State -2.5 v. UCLA |
|
32-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (209) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (210). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (5-2) looks to bounce-back from a 21-3 loss at Utah last Saturday as a 16-point underdog. UCLA (2-5) looks to build off their 34-16 upset win at Stanford two Thursdays ago as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Arizona State should respond with a strong effort after playing poorly against the Utes. The rain certainly played a role in their difficult in moving the football — the Sun Devils managed only 136 yards of offense in that game. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Sun Devils have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Arizona State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after they failed to cover the point spread. The Sun Devils play outstanding defense as they rank 18th in the nation by allowing only 18.1 PPG. UCLA benefited from facing a Cardinal offense playing a third-string freshman quarterback — that is one of the reasons we had the Under in that contest. But the Bruins are 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-14-2 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while the Bruins have gained 455 and 492 yards in each of their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 450 yards in two straight games. UCLA returns home where they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: UCLA is 0-3 at home this season are they are being outscored by -20 PPG and being outgained by -119.6 net YPG. Look for the Sun Devils to bounce-back with a focused effort. 10* CFB Saturday Nigth Discounted Deal with Arizona State Sun Devils (209) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Missouri -9.5 v. Kentucky |
Top |
7-29 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (158). THE SITUATION: Missouri (5-2) looks to bounce-back from their 21-14 upset loss at Vanderbilt last Saturday as a 21-point favorite. Kentucky (3-4) comes off a 21-0 loss at Georgia last Saturday as a 23.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: It took me some time to get exactly to the bottom of the Kentucky quarterback situation. Junior quarterback Terry Wilson suffered a likely season-ending knee injury in the first month of the season. Junior Sawyer Smith became the starter under center after but he got banged up with shoulder and wrist injuries that compelled head coach Mark Stoops to move wide receiver Lynn Bowden, Jr. to be his starting quarterback given the season-ending injury to freshman Nik Scalzo who was third on the depth chart to the begin the season. This is a case of Stoops putting the football in the hands of his best offensive talent — and he did look dynamic in rushing for 99 yards on 17 carries against the Bulldogs defense last week. But Bowden only completed 2 of his 17 passes in that game for 17 yards. Admittedly, the weather conditions were challenging for the passing game with the rain and high winds — but how much can we expect in the passing game from a converted wide receiver. Smith was suited up to play in that Georgia game but Stoops indicated that he did not feel comfortable playing him in that bad weather. Smith is on the injured list this week as questionable with a bye week coming up for Kentucky — so what is the deal with them at QB this week? Mum is the word as of this late afternoon — but I have decided this situation is worthy of a strong investment. I suspect both quarterbacks will play tonight. Even is Smith plays, he is completing only 46.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt with four TD passes and five interceptions. I don’t have confidence in Bowden operating the passing game — so this is a one-dimensional offense that will be playing Mizzou. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Wildcats return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games in the second half of the season. Kentucky has covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their seven games this season. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Kentucky is covering point spreads due to their defense ranks 47th in the nation by allowing just 23.3 PPG. And while the Wildcats have allowed just 122 and 35 passing yards in each of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in two straight contests. Missouri should be primed for a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset loss on the road where they were laying at least 7 points. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss while they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Senior quarterback Kelly Bryant played one of his worst games in a Missouri uniform by completing just 13 of 26 passes for 140 yards — but the former Clemson quarterback did rush for 72 yards. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Mizzou should score their share of points — but it is their outstanding defense that should lead the way for them tonight. The Tigers are 14th in the nation by allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they rank 7th in the nation by giving up just 270.1 total YPG. This is a balanced defensive unit that ranks 26th in the nation in run defense and 6th in the nation in pass defense.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri should be able to rely on the cover skills of their defensive backs to then stuff the box to stop the Wildcats run while shadowing Bowden for his potential running plays from the pocket. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. 5* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State |
Top |
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (169) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (170). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (4-3) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 45-27 loss at home to Baylor last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. Iowa State (5-2) has won three straight games with their 34-24 win at Texas Tech as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State feels like they left one slip after holding a 4th quarter lead over the Bears before allowing them to score 21 straight points over the final 10 minutes of that game. That loss came on the heels of a 45-35 upset loss at Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite the previous week. The Cowboys should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss a tome. And while the Cowboys have lost three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four games. Oklahoma State needs to tighten up on defense after allowing 536 yards to Baylor last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Turnovers are also killing this team — they have turned the ball over eight times over the last two weeks and their -2 net turnover margin last week was punctuated by allowing a 20-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Cowboys are tied for 123rd in the nation with a -1.29 net turnover margin per game — but the Regression Gods tend to intervene when numbers like that get too skewed. Oklahoma State has not forced more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight contests. The Cowboys are led by running back Chuba Hubbard who leads the nation with 1265 rushing yards this season — he is averaging a remarkable 180.7 rushing YPG. He leads the way for an Oklahoma State offense that is 7th in the FBS by averaging 519.9 total YPG. This offense travels — they are scoring 39.2 PPG while averaging 516.0 total YPG away from home. The Cowboys are dangerous underdogs with their powerful offense — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as the underdog. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games with the Total set in expected high scoring games with the Toal set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Iowa State has won three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They are also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy completed 23 of 32 passes for 378 yards last week against the Red Raiders while leading the offense to 564 total yards. But the Cyclones have failed to move the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 375 passing yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 525 total yards in their last contest. Additionally, Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones may not be able to help themselves to look ahead to their off week coming up after this game before showdowns with Texas and Oklahoma — and they are feeling good about themselves with their new Top-25 ranking. But the Cowboys will remember their 48-42 upset loss at home to Iowa State last season as a 10-point favorite. Expect a close game where Oklahoma State will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (169) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Oklahoma v. Kansas State +24 |
|
41-48 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (182) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (181). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 24-17 upset win over TCU where they were 4.5-point underdogs. Oklahoma (7-0) remains unbeaten last week with their 52-14 win over West Virginia as a 33-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas State can keep this game close because they are a very good defensive football team that has not allowed more than 31 points all season. The Wildcats hold their visitors to just 15.5 PPG at home this season while limiting them to just 302.0 total YPG. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. First-year head coach Chris Klieman’s team will have a situational edge with this being their third straight game at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games getting more than 14 points as the underdog. Additionally, Kansas State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after a win against a conference opponent. The Sooners are once again putting up huge offensive numbers this season as they have scored at least 34 points in all seven of their games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 31 points in at least four straight contests. And in their last 8 expected high scoring games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when laying more than two touchdowns. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Kansas State ABC-TV Special with the Kansas State Wildcats (182) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +10 |
|
27-34 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (348) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (347). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (3-3) has lost two straight games after their 29-23 loss to Ball State last week where they opened as a 2-point favorite and closed around a 1.5-point underdog. Western Michigan (4-3) looks to build off their 38-16 win over Miami (OH) as a 12-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Western Michigan was actually outgained by a 365 to 310 yardage margin to the Warhawks but used a +2 net turnover margin and a 74-yard interception return for a touchdown to earn the win. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they are 0-3 this season while getting outscored by -20.0 PPG due to a defense that is allowing their home hosts to average 44.7 PPG along with 534.0 total YPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. We had Eastern Michigan last week after playing four of their first five games on the road but they disappointed with flat effort fueled by a -3 net turnover margin. The Eagles have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a Mid-American Conference rival. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will be motivated to avenge a 27-24 loss at Western Michigan last October 6th. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the month of October. 20* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (348) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Army -4 v. Georgia State |
|
21-28 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (323) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (324). THE SITUATION: Army (3-3) has lost their last two games with their 17-8 upset loss at Western Kentucky as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Georgia State (4-2) comes off a 31-21 win over Coastal Carolina as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Army should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Remember, this is the same team that almost pulled the upset at Michigan in the Big House. Army has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. They are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Now they stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Blacknights will hope they get their ground game going to get their defense off the field. The Hilltoppers gave them a piece of their own medicine by being on offense for almost 39 minutes in that game. But this Panthers’ team is not familiar with the spread triple-option run by the military academies. And, as it is, Georgia State is allowing their opponents to average 200 rushing YPG while averaging 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Panthers are just 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. This team does not possess much of a home-field advantage — they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference, Georgia State is 1-4-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are likely to suffer a letdown after pulling off the upset against a conference opponent. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in the second half of the season. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Army Black Knights (323) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Oregon v. Washington +3 |
|
35-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (368) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (367). THE SITUATION: Oregon (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 45-3 win over Colorado last Friday as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (5-2) comes off a 51-27 win at Arizona last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks may be due for a letdown after their easy win at home against the Buffaloes. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Ducks are averaging 36.0 PPG on offense led by their NFL prospect at quarterback in Justin Herbert. But in their two games on the road — both against quality defenses — Oregon sees their scoring average drop to just 21.0 PPG along with averaging only 326.0 total YPG. A big concern for this team is their Red Zone offense where they rank just 102nd in the nation. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Oregon did generate 527 yards of offense against Colorado — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This Washington team also plays very good defense — they rank 28th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. Visitors are scoring only 17.0 PPG at Husky Stadium while averaging just 336.7 total YPG. The Huskies return home where are 3-1 this season while outscoring their opponents by +19.5 PPG.
|
10-19-19 |
Purdue v. Iowa -17 |
Top |
20-26 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (344) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (343). THE SITUATION: Iowa (4-2) has lost two straight games after their 17-12 loss at home to Penn State last Saturday as a 3.5-point underdog. Purdue (2-4) comes off a 40-14 upset win over Maryland last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has faced a difficult track as of late with a trip to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in which they lost by a 10-3 score where they were 4.5-point underdogs before hosting the Nittany Lions last week. The Hawkeyes outplayed Penn State for most of that game as they outgained them by a 356 to 294 yardage margin. A -2 net turnover margin played a large role in dooming Iowa last week. Iowa should respond with a big effort this afternoon. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. Iowa should get their offense going again against this suspect Boilermakers' defense after facing two of the toughest defenses in the nation. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Iowa has only rushed for 71 combined yards over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to rush for at least 125 yards in two straight games. Iowa is still averaging 32.0 PPG at home this season where they are generating a robust 475.7 total YPG. Senior quarterback Nate Stanley is leading an offense that is averaging a healthy 256.0 passing YPG. Purdue may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered as they are allowing 29.8 PPG — and they rank 104th in the nation by allowing 444.5 total YPG due to a porous pass defense that is giving up 278.0 passing YPG which is 112th in the nation. The strength of this Hawkeyes team is their defense — they rank 5th in the nation respectively by allowing only 10.2 PPG and just 260.8 total YPG. At home in Kinnick Stadium, Iowa is limiting their guests to just 8.5 PPG along with 220.0 total YPG. The Hawkeyes did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after failing to force at least one turnover in their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Purdue came off a surprising performance at home against the Terrapins — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after an upset victory by at least three touchdowns. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Boilermakers team is ravaged with injuries right now — headlined by their senior quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, out the season with a collarbone injury and their All-American wide receiver, Mondale Moore, still out with a leg injury. Redshirt freshman Jack Plummer stepped up last week by completing 33 of 41 passes for 420 yards with three touchdown passes to lead an offense that generated 547 total yards. But the assignment is much tougher this week on the road against this Hawkeyes defense. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards. And the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue is also undermanned on defense with senior defensive tackle Lorenzo Neal and senior linebacker Markus Bailey (who bypassed leaving early for the NFL last year) out for the season. These absences hurt a defense that is giving up 34.5 PPG. Iowa should come close to scoring at least 35 points in this game — and their defense will not allow many points to a freshman quarterback. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (344) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-19 |
UNLV v. Fresno State -14.5 |
Top |
27-56 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (316) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (315). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 43-24 loss at Air Force last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. UNLV (2-4) looks to build off their 34-10 win at Vanderbilt as a 16.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rebels pulled off one of the biggest victories in the five-year tenure of head coach Tony Sanchez — but he is still on the hot seat with this being a “bowl or bust” season for him. UNLV is due for an emotional letdown after pulling off that upset against a team from the SEC. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit underdog. UNLV has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win on the road. As it is, the Rebels have been consistently inconsistent under Sanchez as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. Defense remains an issue for this team that has allowed at least 30 PPG and over 420 total YPG in every season since 2008. This year, UNLV is tied for 108th in the nation by allowing 32.8 PPG — and they are also giving up 431.8 total YPG which is 98th in the nation. In their two conference games this year, the Rebels are allowing 45.5 PPG along with 502.5 total YPG. This sketchy defensive play will put the pressure on redshirt freshman quarterback Kenyon Oblad who will once again be under center given the knee injury suffered by Armani Rogers in late September. Rogers is available to play tonight but Sanchez tapped Oblad as his starter yesterday. UNLV had failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home. The Rebels are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in conference play. Fresno State went into halftime last week with a 24-22 lead before getting dominated by the Air Force ground game that kept the Bulldogs off the field. They had only 13 offensive plays in the second half while averaging just 1.3 Yards-Per-Play. The Bulldogs managed only 12 first downs in that game while being on offense for just 20:31 minutes — but this team has covered the point spread 8 of their last 12 games after failing to generate at least 13 first downs and being on offense for at least 26 minutes. Fresno State is also 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up up loss. They should be able to run the ball behind Ronnie Rivers (253 rushing yards this season) to get the tempo of the game back in their favor — UNLV ranks 113th in the nation by allowing 209.7 rushing YPG. The Bulldogs managed only 268 yards last week — but they are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Fresno State is scoring 34.5 PPG at home while averaging 408.0 total YPG — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home. They are also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Third-year head coach Jeff Tedford has done a great job with this program — his teams won 22 games in his first two seasons. This year would be a challenge with only nine starters returning from last year’s Mountain West Conference champions. Fresno State crushed UNLV in Las Vegas last year by a 48-3 score — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of October. With two non-conference losses against quality teams in Minnesota and USC, the Bulldogs still can salvage their season in their second MWC game — but it starts with a big win tonight. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (316) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-18-19 |
Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4 |
|
27-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (312) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (311). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (3-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Thursday with their 16-10 loss at NC State as a 4.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (4-2) has won three straight games with their 33-30 upset win at Duke as a 3.5-point underdog back on October 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for this Syracuse team that is finishing a run of four games at home in five contests — they will then be on the road for three of their next four contests. The Orange remain winless in ACC play with losses to Clemson and the Wolfpack last week. But this is a team that has still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. The Orange did not commit a turnover in that game against NC State — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Syracuse entered this season with high expectations with thirteen starters back from last year’s 10-3 squad that defeated West Virginia by a 34-18 score in the Camping World Bowl. This was considered the best roster yet for head coach Dino Babers in his four years with the program. Over their last three games, the offense has picked up under quarterback Tommy Devito has they are scoring 34.3 PPG along with averaging 430.3 total YPG. The Orange have also held their last three opponents to just 17.3 PPG along with only 353.0 total YPG. Syracuse has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Pitt benefited from six Blue Devils turnovers in their victory almost two weeks ago. But the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after forcing at least five turnovers in their last game. Pitt survived that game despite committing four turnovers of their own. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 road games after committing at least three turnovers in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after turning the ball over at least four times in their last game. A 26-yard interception return for a touchdown made the winning difference against Duke — but Pitt only rushed for 69 yards which were their second-lowest rushing total of the season. The Panthers have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 37 road games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. Pitt is scoring only 21.5 PPG this season which is 107th in the nation. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their five boarded games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: Syracuse will also be motivated to avenge a 44-37 upset loss in overtime last year where they were 3-point road favorites. Look for another close game with the Orange having a good chance to pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* CFB Pittsburgh-Syracuse ESPN Special with the Syracuse Orange (312) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-16-19 |
South Alabama v. Troy -14.5 |
Top |
13-37 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (302) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Troy (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 42-10 loss at Missouri as a 25.5-point underdog back on October 5th. South Alabama (1-5) has lost four straight games with their 20-17 loss in overtime to Georgia Southern as a 10-point underdog back on October 3rd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: Troy needs to establish some momentum in Sun Belt Conference action after suffering two previous upset losses to Southern Mississippi and against conference rival Arkansas State already this season. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s team that finished 10-3 after a 42-32 win over Buffalo in the Dollar General Bowl. Things have been a bit rocky for first-year head coach Chip Lindsey who took over for Neal Brown who took the head coaching job at West Virginia. But talent remains on this team — and a conference championship is still in reach as well as another bowl appearance. The Trojans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Getting senior quarterback Kaleb Barker back under center will help — he was knocked out of the game with the Tigers but he has been upgraded to probable with the extra time to prepare for this game. Troy has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they are 36th in the nation in both scoring (34.6 PPG) and total yardage (450.8 YPG). The Trojans return home where they are scoring 42.7 PPG while averaging 521.7 total YPG. Troy needs to tighten up on defense — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The weakness for the Trojans defense is against the pass where they are allowing 308.6 passing YPG which is 124th in the FBS. But the Jaguars are not a dynamic passing team as they average just 149.0 passing YPG which is 121st in the nation. Their quarterback, Cephus Johnson, is completing only 53.6% of his passes with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. South Alabama will have trouble running the ball against this Troy defense that is 14th in the nation by allowing just 93.9 rushing YPG. The Trojans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Sun Belt foes. The Jaguars come off their best game of the season in that narrow loss to the Eagles — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. South Alabama gained only 247 yards in that game — and 135 of those yards came on two long plays. The Jaguars had only four first downs against the Georgia Southern defense (four — not a typo!). On paper, the South Alabama defense looks stout as they rank 35th in the nation by allowing just 199.3 passing YPG — but those numbers are skewed after last week when the Eagles were happy to rush the ball 66 times for 310 yards. The Jaguars are 106th in the nation by allowing 200.8 rushing YPG. Troy should be able to pass the ball against this South Alabama pass defense that allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.3% of their passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. South Alabama has turned the ball over 13 times already this season — so this nationally televised night game in a hostile environment could be challenging for them.
FINAL TAKE: Troy won last year’s Battle of the Belt last season at South Alabama by a 38-17 score — but they will still be motivated to avenge a 19-8 loss at home to the Jaguars despite being a 19-point favorite in 2017. This shapes up to be a “get right” game for Troy against a weak South Alabama team whose only win was against Jackson State. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (302) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-19 |
Florida v. LSU -13 |
|
28-42 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (180) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (179). THE SITUATION: LSU (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-6 win over Utah State as a 27-point favorite last Saturday. Florida (6-0) is also one of the remained unbeaten teams in the nation after they upset Auburn at home by a 24-13 score as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gators forced four Auburn turnovers last week to help them win that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. But now after playing their last three games at home, this Florida team goes back on the road to play just their second game this season in a hostile environment. This will be a challenge for junior quarterback Kyle Trask who has taken over the starting job after the season-ending injury to the incumber QB in Feleipe Franks. Head coach Dan Mullen would like to support Trask with a good ground game in this road game — but the Gators are averaging just 139.8 rushing YPG this season which is 89th in the nation. Florida has not rushed for more than 138 yards against a Power Five conference opponent this year — and they will be facing a stout LSU defense that is limiting opposing rushers to just 2.64 Yards-Per-Carry. The Tigers are allowing only 19.8 PPG along with just 287.8 total YPG. And while the Gators have held their last three opponents to no more than 269 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight games. LSU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Tigers held the Aggies to just 168 total yards last week — and they are both 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last contest. The Tigers’ offense should overwhelm the limited Gators offense. Quarterback Joe Burrow is leading an offense that leads the nation by scoring 54.6 PPG while also leading the nation by converting on 56.9% of their third downs. The Tigers are also second in the FBS by generating 571 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in SEC play. Look for Florida to experience a big letdown after their upset win last week. 20* CFB Florida-LSU ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (180) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-19 |
Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 |
|
17-12 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (204) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (203). Iowa (4-1) looks to bounce-back from their 10-3 loss at Michigan last Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Penn State (5-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 35-7 win at home over Purdue last week as a 28.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: The Nittany Lions have risen to the top ten in the national rankings with their undefeated started supported by some nice statistics. But this Penn State has also benefited from a soft early schedule with Pittsburgh probably representing the best team they have faced so far this season. This will be the first ranked opponent that the Nittany Lions have faced this season — and this will be a big challenge for a team that returned only twelve starters from last year’s 9-4 group that lost to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl by a 27-24 score. Sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford has played well leading the offense — but let’s remember that it was Tommy Stevens that was expected to be the starting quarterback this season until he surprised the program by transferring to Mississippi State in the spring. Clifford is leading a team that has lost twenty-two of their last twenty-four road games against ranked opponents. The Nittany Lions defense has looked very good so far this season after limiting (an injury-riddled) Purdue offense to just 104 total yards. The Boilermakers averaged just 1.86 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after limiting their last opponent to no more than 3.25 YPP. Penn State has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Furthermore, while the Nittany Lions have only allowed 17 combined points over their last three games with those opponents averaging just 209.3 YPG, that is not a good sign for them moving forward. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 225 YPG over their last three contests. Additionally, the Nittany Lions has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on field turf. Iowa should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Turnovers played a huge role last week with senior quarterback Nate Stanley throwing three picks and the Hawkeyes forcing only one turnover themselves. But turnovers can be fickle — and Iowa has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. The Hawkeyes return to Iowa City where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a game that finished Under the Total. Iowa is also 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on field turf. They should once again play outstanding defense — they rank 5th in the nation by allowing only 254.3 total YPG while ranking 4th in the nation by giving up just 8.8 PPG. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes will put pressure on the first-year sophomore quarterback to make plays as they are 11th in the nation by allowing just 85.6 rushing YPG. Those defensive numbers are against better competition than what Penn State has faced with Iowa facing the Wolverines and Iowa State already this season. Stanley should play better at home as well where the three-year starter has thrown 8 touchdown passes with zero interceptions in three wins this year.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa will also have revenge on their mind from a 30-24 loss at Penn State last October 27th. The Hawkeyes lost a narrow 21-19 game in a night game two years ago in the last time they hosted the Nittany Lions as a 12.5-point underdog. 10* CFB Penn State-Iowa ABC-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (204) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-19 |
USC v. Notre Dame -10 |
Top |
27-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (4-1) enters this rivalry game coming off a 52-0 shutout win at home against Bowling Green last Saturday as a 45.5-point favorite. USC (3-2) returns to action after their bye week that came after a 28-14 loss at Washington as a 12.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans are an imploding program in what appears to be a lame-duck final season for fifth-year head coach Clay Helton. Under his watch, USC has now lost seven of their last eleven games. The Trojans have also won just two of their last fifteen games as an underdog under Helton — so there is little chance that USC will be in a serious position to win this game tonight. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as the underdog. And while the USC defense played well two weeks ago in their two-touchdown loss to the Huskies with the Total set in the 59 range, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The good news for this team is they get their freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis back after he cleared the concussion protocol. The bad news is that he is only the starter because sophomore J.T. Daniels suffered a season-ending knee injury — and the team needs him to play a veteran in a very challenging environment on the road in South Bend for this nationally televised night game. USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they are just 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside Pac-12 play. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, USC has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Notre Dame has won sixteen of their last eighteen games under head coach Brian Kelly with those two losses being on the road after Georgia last month and on a neutral field in the College Football Semifinals against Clemson. They should build off the momentum of their big win last week as they are covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Irish generated 573 yards of offense in that win — and not only are they 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points but they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 475 yards of offense in their last game. They have a big edge under center with senior quarterback Ian Book who is leading an offense that is scoring 41.0 PPG (51.0 PPG at home) — and they will probably get their top rusher in Jafar Armstrong back for this game after he has been out since Game One with a groin injury. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Irish also boast a strong defense that has registered ten sacks over the last two weeks while allowing only 14.8 PPG this season.
FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in South Bend tonight with winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a big role to help the Irish — they rank third in the nation with thirteen takeaways while leading the nation with their +10 net turnover differential. USC has a net -7 turnover margin this season — and they have not won the turnover battle in a game since the opening week of the 2018 season against UNLV which is the longest streak in the nation. 25* CFB Saturday NBC-TV Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-19 |
Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -1 |
Top |
29-23 |
Loss |
-112 |
15 h 53 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 42-16 upset loss at Central Michigan last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. Ball State (2-3) looks to build off their 27-20 upset win at Northern Illinois last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan should respond with a strong effort after last week’s disappointing performance. The Eagles have rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a conference foe. Furthermore, Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss while covering the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after a blowout loss by at least 20 points. This team has become a physical and nasty team under head coach Chris Creighton in his sixth season with the program while also embodying his mental toughness. Creighton has resurrected this program that had only won five combined games in his three seasons before going 19-19 since the start of the 2017 season. The Eagles could have had an even better record over that span as they were just 6-11 in games decided by one scoring possession entering the fall. Eastern Michigan lost five of their six games by 7 points or less last year. Additionally, the analytics for this team are skewed right now with four of their first five games being on the road. The Eagles will be playing just their second game at home this season where they have a nice home-field advantage when playing at the “Factory.” Eastern Michigan is led by a dynamic senior dual-threat quarterback in Mike Glass III who would have likely led this team to a better record last year if not for an injury that limited him to just eight games. Glass is completing 66.8% of his passes this season with 13 touchdown passes and just 5 interceptions while leading the Eagles to average 265 passing YPG. Glass led this team to an upset win at Illinois. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in there 56.5 to 63 point range. Ball State may be due for a letdown after their upset win on the road against the Huskies last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals eked out that game despite being outgained by Northern Illinois by -120 net yards after managing to generate a mere 269 yards of offense. That is not a good sign for them this week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being outgained by at least 125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. This team stays on the road for their third straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Ball State has scored only 7 (at NC State) and 3 points in the first half of these last two games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last two games. And in their last 6 games in expected close contests where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan should be confident in this game after crushing the Cardinals at Ball State by a 42-20 score last season. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Ball State. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-19 |
Memphis v. Temple +4.5 |
|
28-30 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (128) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (127). THE SITUATION: Temple (4-1) has won two straight games after their 27-17 win at East Carolina back on October 3rd as a -12.5-point favorite. Memphis (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 55-33 win at UL-Monroe as a 16-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Temple has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and this team has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with extra days of rest after a Thursday night game. Their lone loss this season was on the road at Buffalo where they were upset by a 38-22 score. Three interceptions played a large role in giving up all those points to the Bulls — but they have not allowed more than 17 points in any of their other four games this season. Temple is allowing only 17.2 PPG along with just 292.4 total YPG — and those numbers plummet to just 10.3 PPG along with just 285.3 total YPG when playing at home this year. Seven starters returned on defense from last year with this group allowing opposing rushers to average just 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry while opposing quarterbacks are completing only 45.9% of their passes while averaging just 167 passing YPG. Now this team returns back home for Homecoming Week where they are 3-0 while outscoring their guests by +23.0 PPG due to their offense that is scoring 33.3 PPG and averaging 481.3 total YPG. The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games as a dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Temple gained 490 yards last week on the road against the Pirates — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Owls are also 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games in the month of October. Memphis have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. Memphis defeating the Warhawks last week despite being outgained by -40 net yards due to their props defense allowing 575 total yards. After an opening week 15-10 win against Ole Miss, the Tigers have scored at least 35 points in each of their next four games — but they failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight games. Now this team plays their second straight game on the road — as well as their third game in their last four contests away from home e— and they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on grass.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Look for the Tigers to be in a barn-burner against this confident Owls team at home who have the best defense that they have faced all season. 20* CFB Memphis-Temple ESPN2 Special with the Temple Owls (128) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (127). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-11-19 |
Virginia v. Miami-FL -2 |
|
9-17 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (110) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (109). THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (2-3) looks to rebound from their 42-35 loss at home to Virginia Tech last Saturday as a 14-point favorite. Virginia (4-1) suffered their first loss of the season two weeks ago with their 35-20 loss at Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: A -5 net turnover margin did Miami in last week against the Hokies. The Hurricanes trailed by a 28-0 score at one point of that game in the first half but did almost rally to steal that game. They dominated Virginia Tech by outgaining them by a 563 to 337 yardage margin. They averaged 7.22 Yards-Per-Play in that game with sophomore quarterback N’Kosi Perry taking over for an injured freshman quarterback Jarren Williams. Perry will get the start in this game with Williams dealing with a bum shoulder — but Williams also threw three first-half interceptions to help place the Hurricanes in the hole from which they could not pull themselves out. Perry started six times last season — so he has experience. Miami should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.75 Yards-Per-Play. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after suffering a net turnover of -5 or worse in their last game. Expectations were high for this team entering the season with first-year head coach Matt Diaz with twelve starters back from last year’s team that suffered five net upsets last year. All three of Miami’s losses this year have been by one scoring possession to good football teams in Florida, North Carolina, and then the Hokies last week. They are outscoring their opponents by +10.8 net PPG while outgaining them by +166.4 net YPG. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by no more than 3 points. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games after winning four of their last five games. The rushing numbers are the biggest concerns for the Cavaliers coming out of that game with the Irish as they managed only 4 net rushing yards while being outgained on the ground by Notre Dame by -153 net yards. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being outrushed by at least 125 yards. The Cavaliers stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Six starters returned for this team on offense including senior quarterback Bryce Perkins — but explosiveness was an issue for this offense last year which remains a question going into the season. That offense ranked 81st in the FBS by averaging just 384.8 total YPG — but this year’s unit has seen that number decline to just 363.6 total YPG. Furthermore, Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a Friday night.
FINAL TAKE: Miami will also have revenge on their minds after being upset on the road at Virginia last year despite being a 7-point favorite by a 16-13 score. It has been a disappointing start for the Hurricanes this season — but a victory tonight would be their biggest win of the year. 10* CFB Virginia-Miami (FL) ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (110) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-19 |
Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette -1.5 |
|
17-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (102) minus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-1) has won four straight games after their 37-24 win at Georgia Southern as a 3-point favorite back on September 28th. Appalachian State (4-0) remains undefeated this season with their 56-37 victory over Coastal Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite on September 28th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisiana should build off the momentum of their big win on the road as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. This is a team on the rise in head coach Billy Napier’s second season running the program after previously serving as an assistant to both Nick Saban and Dabo Sweeney. After this program averaged just 5.3 incoming freshmen rated as a 3-star or better from 2016-18, Napier nabbed twenty-two 3-star or better recruits for his 2019 class. Fifteen starters returned from last year’s group that lost to the Mountaineers in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. This year’s team started the year with a strong showing in a neutral field 10-point loss to Mississippi State. The Ragin’ Cajuns have since won their last four games including last week’s win against an Eagles team that won ten games last year as well as a 45-25 win at an Ohio team that was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference. Louisiana is averaging 314.5 rushing YPG which leads the nation. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44.4 PPG while generating 540.2 total YPG. Louisiana has scored 159 combined points over their last three games while averaging 559 total YPG in those contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games after averaging at least 475 YPG in their last there games. And while Louisiana has generated at least 275 rushing yards in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in two straight contests. But the difference in this team this season is their significant improvement on the other side of the line of scrimmage. After allowing 34.2 PPG along with 435.9 total YPG last season, seven returning starters under second-year defensive coordinator Ron Roberts is now allowing only 21.4 PPG along with just 345.2 total YPG against a challenging schedule so far this season. Louisiana also leads the Sun Belt Conference in Pass Efficiency defense. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Ragin’ Cajuns return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Louisiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Appalachian State may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in three of their first four games. The Mountaineers failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three of these last four games. The Mountaineers remain a powerful offensive team but they have taken a step or two back on defense. Appalachian State was 4th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 15.5 PPG but they lost five starters from that group including very good players on their defensive line and their two starting cornerbacks. The Mountaineers are allowing 29.0 PPG this season with their opponents averaging 420.2 total YPG which is more than 130 YPG more than last year. Not only did Coastal Carolina put up 39 points against them but Charlotte scored 41 points against them earlier this season. The biggest decline has been with their run defense as they are allowing opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry which is 0.8 YPC higher than last year — and this inferior run defense will play right into the hands of the Louisiana ground game. Additionally, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana has certainly had this date circled on their calendar after losing twice to the Mountaineers last season. The Ragin’ Cajuns did win the first down battle in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game by a 16-13 margin in that 30-19 loss. Louisiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Appalachian State-Louisiana ESPN2 Special with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (102) minus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-19 |
Baylor v. Kansas State -1.5 |
|
31-12 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (328) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (327). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-1) looks to rebound from their first loss of the season last week at Oklahoma State as a 4-point underdog. Baylor (4-0) comes off a 23-21 upset victory at home against Iowa State last Saturday where they were 2.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas State has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Chris Klieman hopes the resiliency of this program under the stewardship of their longtime head coach Bill Snyder will continue under his command. He inherited fourteen starters from last year’s final Snyder team led by junior quarterback Skylar Thompson. The Wildcats offense struggled last week by generating only 244 yards on the road against the Cowboys — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Now Kansas State returns home to Manhattan where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Baylor may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. And while they did not commit a turnover last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Junior quarterback Charlie Brewer did pass for 307 yards in that win — but the Bears are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Manhattan to face Kansas State. The Wildcats need this win to stay alive in the race to make the Big 12 Championship Game. Expect a spirited effort from Klieman’s team. 10* CFB Baylor-Kansas State ESPN2 Special with the Kansas State Wildcats (328) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-19 |
TCU v. Iowa State -3 |
|
24-49 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (374) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (373). THE SITUATION: TCU (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 23-21 loss at Baylor as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (3-1) looks to build off their 51-14 win over Kansas last week as a 14.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State entered this season with high expectations as they returned sixteen starters led by their sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy who finished 8-5. The Cyclones scored 30.9 PPG in their last nine games after Purdy took over as the starting quarterback. This is a very well-coached team under fourth-year head coach Matt Campbell. But after a narrow 18-17 loss at home to in-state rival, Iowa, followed by their upset loss at Baylor last week, this is a team desperate for a high profile victory. Iowa State is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three contests. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Cyclones are also 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of October which includes seven straight point spread covers under Campbell’s leadership. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of October. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. TCU had three quarterbacks combine for 306 passing yards in their win over the Jayhawks — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. This looks to be a bounce-back year for head coach Gary Patterson in his nineteen years with the program after an injury-ravaged season left the Horned Frogs with a 7-6 record. Twelve starters returned from that group that did benefit from the experience after all those injuries. Patterson is using a true freshman as his starting quarterback in Max Duggan — but this is a tough assignment in playing just his second game in a hostile environment. Duggan will be playing an Iowa State defense that has allowed only five touchdowns in the twelve opponent Rez Zone trips this season. Duggan will be supported by a stout defense that ranks 4th in the nation by allowing only 246 total YPG. But TCU has only forced one turnover over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight games. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: TCU’s lone loss this season was a 7-point favorite at home against SMU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Cyclones. With Iowa State desperate for a win and with the more experienced quarterback, look for them to secure the victory. UPDATE: Thunderstorms have delayed the start of this game for two hours to 2 PM ET. The weather report indicates the rain should slow down as the afternoon moves on. I think inclement weather helps the more experienced quarterback in Purdy even if the rain is heavier than expected. 10* CFB TCU-Iowa State ESP2 Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (374) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-19 |
New Mexico v. San Jose State -6 |
|
21-32 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (310) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (309). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (2-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-24 loss at Air Force last Friday night as a 19.5-point underdog. New Mexico (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-10 loss at Liberty last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: This Lobos team is a mess in the eighth season under head coach Bob Davie. It is a minor miracle that the former Notre Dame head coach has survived this long in Albuquerque after being suspended by the school for the unethical treatment of some of his players. Davie has also head health issues this season. This is a program that has suffered two straight 3-9 campaigns. They lost their last six games last year by an average of -25.6 PPG while being outgained by -276 YPG. Despite covering the point spread against Liberty (another team with an ailing head coach), the Lobos were outgained by -104 net yards. New Mexico has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. The Lobos has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Now this team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in expected high scoring affairs with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Lobos rank 129th in the FBS by allowing 526 YPG — and they are allowing 380 passing YPG with thirteen touchdown passes allowed and just one interception. Fifth-year senior quarterback Josh Love should have success passing the football against this defense — he is leading a Spartans offense that is averaging 284.8 passing YPG. We had a big play on Air Force last week and I left that game impressed with the improvement of this San Jose State team in the third year under head coach Brent Brennan. The game was closer than the final score — and things could have gotten very interesting if the Spartans had converted at least one of their four failed fourth-down attempts. Brennan has this team playing with energy and confidence. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home for a very winnable game. They are doing a good job of protecting the football as they have committed only one turnover in each of their first three games before not giving the ball to Air Force last week. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Mountain West Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (310) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-19 |
Central Florida v. Cincinnati +4 |
|
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (308) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (307). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (3-1) has won two straight games after their 52-14 win at Marshall as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Central Florida (4-1) looks to build off their 56-21 win at UConn as a big 42-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a victory by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last contest. The Bearcats raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after taking a lead of at least 24 points at halftime of their last game. Head coach Luke Fickell feels very good about his team in his third year with the program after having fourteen starters return from last year’s team. His team’s lone loss this season was at Ohio State where they were just physically outmatched. But they get to host this big game where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games contests. They have also only allowed 27 combined points over their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. They are getting good play from their sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who has completed 64.3% of his passes for 815 yards with eight touchdown passes. He should be able to keep up with the Knights’ true freshman quarterback in Dillon Gabriel who has thrown for 1336 passing yards this season. But his two interceptions this season were both on the road in the Knights’ 35-34 upset loss at Pittsburgh where they were laying 10 points. Gabriel will be facing a good Bearcats’ pass defense that is allowing only 167.0 passing YPG and no touchdown passes in their last two games. Gabriel completed 11 of 16 passes last week for 281 yards in that easy win over the Huskies — but UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The offensive line is an issue for this team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that finished 12-1 in head coach Josh Heupel’s first year with the program. After allowing only 19 sacks last season with junior QB McKenzie Milton under center for a vast majority of their games, the Knights have allowed nine sacks already this season with a freshman taking the snaps. Milton is out the year after suffering a knee injury in last year’s final regular-season game. Now this team travels away from Orlando — and they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on field turf. And in their last 12 road games laying 3.5 to 7 points, UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati played their worst game of the season last year in a 38-13 loss at UCF last November 11th as a 6.5-point underdog. This is the game that Fickell has had circled on his team’s calendar. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance in what should be a close game. 10* CFB UCF-Cincinnati ESPN Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (308) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Temple -11.5 v. East Carolina |
Top |
27-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). THE SITUATION: Temple (3-1) looks to build off their 24-2 victory over Georgia Tech last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. East Carolina (3-2) has won three of their last four games after they upset Old Dominion on the road on Saturday by a 24-21 score as a 3-point dog.
REASONS TO TAKE TEMPLE MINUS THE POINTS: First-year head coach Mike Houston deserved credit for already matching East Carolina’s win total from last season. But two of the Pirates’ wins so far this season were against FCS opponents in Gardner Webb and William & Mary. The Monarchs are not a very good team this year either — and it is likely that their 32-point loss to Navy along with their 28-point loss to NC State is more indicative of where this team is at after winning only six games in their previous two seasons. This football program made a mistake in letting Ruffin McNeil go after six seasons back in 2016 after a disappointing 5-7 record in a year where they outgained their American Athletic Conference opponents by +26.5 net YPG while suffering three net close losses decided by one scoring possession. The subsequent Scottie Montgomery era was a failure with three straight 3-9 seasons. Houston inherited fourteen starters but the talent level of this roster needs to be upgraded to hang with the better teams in the conference. East Carolina is just 9-31-1 ATS in their last 41 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, this Pirates team is due for a letdown after their upset win last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home for this contest where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Temple should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they have over the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory. Their lone loss was at Buffalo this year — but they have still covered the point spread in 43 of their last 63 games on the road which includes them covering the point spread in six of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record at home. First-year head coach Rod Carey inherited fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 with a loss in the Independence Bowl under an interim head coach to Duke. The Owls are outscoring their opponents by +13.3 PPG while also outgaining these foes by +149.5 net YPG due. Temple is allowing only 17.2 PPG while holding their opponents to just 283.7 total YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games against conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Owls should overwhelm the Pirates even as a double-digit favorite on the road. Temple has covered the point spread in their last 6 meetings with East Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Georgia Southern -10 v. South Alabama |
|
20-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (303) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (304). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (1-3) has lost its last two games after their 37-24 loss to UL-Lafayette on Saturday as a 3-point underdog. South Alabama (1-4) has lost their last three games with their 30-17 loss at UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 14.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars are averaging just 8.7 PPG over their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. And while South Alabama committed only one turnover last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 39 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last contest. Second-year head coach Steve Campbell is trying to change the culture with this program after taking over for Joey Jones after he was fired after nine years with the program. Campbell has great success at the junior college ranks — but the FBS is a different challenge. The program lost nine players who transferred in the offseason leaving just ten starters back from last year’s 3-9 team. The Jaguars also lost thirty lettermen from last year overall which is the fifth most in the FBS. This remains a major rebuild for a program that has not had a winning season in seven straight years. Now South Alabama returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record overall — and they are just 11-26-1 ATS in their last 38 games against conference rivals. Georgia Southern needs a victory with just one win for the season. They have embraced a very tough schedule out of the gate with an opening game against LSU. They also played an underrated Minnesota team on the road — yet they only lost by a 35-32 score as a 17-point underdog. Chad Lunsford has got this program back on track in just his second year after things went off the rails in the two seasons under Tyson Summers. As a longtime assistant at Georgia Southern, Lunsford re-established the team’s identity around a triple-option offense while adding a shotgun/pistol angle to it by hiring bringing in former New Mexico offensive coordinator Bob DeBesse. The Eagles are averaging 202 rushing YPG with their rushers averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. This team should run and down on this Jaguars defense that is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 YPC along with 179 rushing YPG. South Alabama let Memphis generate 312 rushing yards against them along with AUB putting up another 201 rushing yards. Rushing attacks travel on the road — and Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Eagles averaged just 3.68 Yards-Per-Play against the Ragin’ Cajuns, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where they failed to average at least 3.75 YPP. Georgia Southern needs to play better on defense after they allowed UL-Lafayette to 275 rushing yards last week. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. But while Georgia Southern allowed only 165 passing yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games.
FINAL TAKE: While the Eagles were likely to take a step back from their 10-3 season last year, this remains a good team who lost only twelve seniors while returning fourteen starters with Sun Belt Championship aspirations. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 4 of their last games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with this Jaguars team that is preparing for their unique offense on a short week. 10* CFB Georgia Southern-South Alabama ESPNU Special with the Georgia Southern Eagles (303) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-19 |
Hawaii v. Nevada -1.5 |
Top |
54-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (150) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (149). THE SITUATION: Nevada (3-1) has won two straight games with their 37-21 win at UTEP last week as a 14-point favorite. Hawai’i (3-1) also comes off a victory with their 35-16 win at home against Central Arkansas as a 17.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada’s season stats are skewed right now after they endured a 77-6 loss at Oregon in their second game of the season. But the Wolf Pack also have a nice upset victory over Purdue in Reno that opened up their season. Third-year head coach Jay Norvell had eleven starters return from last year’s 8-5 team that closed out their season by defeating Arkansas State by a 16-13 score. Norvell had to replace a three-year starter in Ty Gangi to operate his Air Raid offense. Redshirt freshman Carson Strong was tapped the opening day starter — and he orchestrated the comeback victory over the Boilermakers. After getting beat up in the next two games against the Ducks and Weber State, Strong did not play last week against the Golden Hurricanes but he will get the start tonight. Norvell has indicated that last week’s starter in senior Cristian Solano and former 4-star recruit at Florida State in Malik Henry may get the chance to play. The Wolf Pack are good at home where they have held their two opponents to just 328.0 total YPG. Nevada has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. The Wolf Pack have also covered their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in expected close contests with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, Nevada has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine of the season. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Hawaii has eighteen starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-6 — and this returning experience helped them defeat Arizona and Oregon State in their opening two games of the season before they were crushed at Washington in their lone road game this season by a 52-20 score. The Rainbow Warriors are led by junior quarterback Cole McDonald who ran their Run-and-Shoot offense last season. But turnovers have plagued him this season as he has thrown nine interceptions already this season — and Hawai’i leads the nation with 15 turnovers this year. Turnovers will likely play a big role in this game as they face a Nevada defense that has forced 10 turnovers already this year. The Rainbow Warriors have committed at least two turnovers in all four of their games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after turning the ball over at least two times in three straight games. And while Hawai’i has forced only one turnover in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. The Rainbow Warriors are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in Week Five to Nine of the regular season. Hawai’i has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has lost eight of their last nine trips to Reno to face the Wolf Pack — and they will be in for a rude awakening regarding the weather. The forecast is for rain and temperatures dipping into the low-30s which will make operating that Run-and-Shoot offense that thrives in the balmy Maui weather difficult (while making turnovers even more likely). Nevada can lean on the ground game — and they will be facing a Rainbow Warriors that are allowing their opponents to average 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Nevada Wolf Pack (150) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-19 |
Northwestern +25 v. Wisconsin |
|
15-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (113) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (114). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-10 loss at home to Michigan State last week as a 7.5-point underdog. Wisconsin (3-0) looks to build off their 35-14 victory at home over Michigan as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Northwestern caught an angry Spartans team that was looking to rebound from an upset loss at home to Arizona State the previous week by a 10-7 score. Expect head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team to respond with a very strong effort this afternoon. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a double-digit loss at home. This Northwestern team is the most physical in the Big Ten — and they usually play smart so a sound fundamental effort is likely. This has been this team’s formula for success under Fitzgerald as they entered the season having won fifteen of their last sixteen games in Big Ten play. Twelve starters returned from last year’s group that finished 9-5 after winning the Big Ten West for the first time. Fitzgerald may have the most talented quarterback in the program’s history with sophomore Hunter Johnson who was a five-star recruit for Clemson before transferring to Evanston two years ago after losing the quarterback job to Trevor Lawrence. Johnson led an offense that generated only 266 total yards against Sparty last week — but Northwestern has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last contest. Northwestern has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have won eight straight games straight-up on the road in conference play. The Wildcats are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin may be due for an emotional letdown after one of their most dominating performances in a long time last week in what was a critical game on their schedule against the Wolverines. That was a huge game for the Badgers after being humiliated at Michigan the year before by a 38-13 score. But Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory over a Big Ten rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after a win by at least 17 points. And while the Badgers rushed for a whopping 359 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Additionally, Wisconsin will be without two safeties in Eric Burrell and Reggie Pearson in the first half of this game after they were penalized for targeting penalties last week.
FINAL TAKE: The Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Wildcats. Northwestern has been a very dangerous dog under Fitzgerald with them pulling the upset straight-up in ten of their last eighteen games as a double-digit underdog. Wisconsin is peaking in terms of their value with the betting public right now after their high profile dominant win — and this offers us point spread value in what should be a competitive game. 10* CFB Northwestern-Wisconsin ABC-TV Special with the Northwestern Wildcats (113) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-19 |
Buffalo v. Miami-OH +3 |
Top |
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (124) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (123). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 76-5 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a 38.5-point underdog. Buffalo (2-2) comes off a 38-22 upset win over Temple last Saturday as a 14-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has endured a brutal non-conference schedule so far this season with losses at Iowa, Cincinnati and then the Buckeyes last week sandwiched by their Week Two win at home over Tennessee Tech. This has been par for the course for head coach Chuck Martin in his sixth year with the program. Martin has communicated that his team was hit hard with injuries after their encounter with Ohio State — but he was also able to rest most of his starters for half of that game after what was a good first quarter where they at one point had a 5-0 lead before they fell off the proverbial rails. Look for Martin to have his team ready to play this afternoon in their first conference game of the season. The Redhawks return for the first time in three weeks after losing at Cincinnati by a 35-13 score before last week’s loss in Columbus. Miami has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games after losing their last two games on the road by double-digits. And while the Redhawks have yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Dealing with injuries is nothing new for Martin after his team endured 39 starts lost to injury last season which was ninth-most in the FBS. Miami still finished 6-6 overall after going 6-2 in conference play. Martin has been masterful in getting his team ready to play against fellow Mid-American Conference competition as the Redhawks have won sixteen of their last twenty-two conference games. Miami has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against MAC foes. Expect his team to play tighter on defense after surrendering 601 yards to the powerful Ohio State offense. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This is just the second home game for this team — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset as a double-digit underdog in their last game. The Bulls limited the Owls to just 31 rushing yards and 289 total yards overall — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. Fifth-year head coach Lance Leipold led this program to its first ten-win season in school history — but this year’s group returned just eight starters with the roster decimated by graduation, early departures to the NFL and some untimely transfers. The Bulls were a talented team last year but most of that All-Conference talent is now gone which makes this a rebuilding year for Leipold. Buffalo defeated Robert Morris to open the season before losing at Penn State and then being upset as a 5.5-point favorite at Liberty before last week’s triumph. The Bulls go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. And they are dealing with some injuries as well with the most notable being their lone returning starter at linebacker in James Patterson. In this expected close game, Buffalo also has issues in special teams with their punter averaging just 32.6 yards per kick and their placekicker having already missed four kicks.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has freshmen at quarterback in Brett Gabbert (Blaine’s brother) and Jackson Williamson but so too does Buffalo with redshirt freshman Matt Myers who completed 9 of 15 passes last week for just 62 yards with an interception. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to pass for more than 75 yards in their last game. While both Redhawks’ quarterbacks were banged up last week, in head coach Martin we trust in this one. Look for him to have his team ready for their conference debut on their home field after their gauntlet of a non-conference schedule. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (124) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-19 |
Arizona State +5 v. California |
|
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (101) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (112). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 34-31 upset loss at home to Colorado last Saturday night as a 7.5-point favorite. California (4-0) comes off a 28-20 upset victory at Ole Miss last Saturday as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona State was a prime candidate for an emotional letdown after their big 10-7 upset win in East Lansing two weeks ago against Michigan State as a 15.5-point favorite. The Sun Devils should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Arizona State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a Pac-12 opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. I continue to be impressed with the job of Herm Edwards with this program. I was a skeptic that the former NFL player and head coach turned ESPN pundit would have success. Despite playing a ton of freshmen last year, the Sun Devils were usually competitive last year in a 7-6 season which included a bowl game. The biggest question mark this season for this team was at quarterback and defensive line — but Edwards seems to have found the answers at those positions. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels is a dual-threat quarterback with a high ceiling who is improving with the mental aspects of his game on a weekly basis. And Arizona State limited a Spartans team two weeks ago that wants to win their big offensive line and rushing attack to just 140 rushing yards on 40 carries. Edwards has proven himself crafty as a head coach with an NFL mentality who has crafted a very productive coaches room with his assistants. And he has already loaded his roster with skill players like running back Eno Benjamin and a cadre of weapons at wide receiver. The Sun Devils should play better on defense after allowing the Buffaloes who gained 475 yards against them last week. Colorado averaged 6.81 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but Arizona State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP. The Sun Devils have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games as the underdog. And in their last 5 road games in expected low scoring games with the Total set at 42 or lower, Arizona State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Cal is undefeated this season after their big win at Mississippi — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game that finished Over the Total with that game’s number closing in the 42.5 range. The Golden Bears won that game despite being outgained by 92 yards with their defense surrendering 525 yards of offense. Cal was 15th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 317.2 total YPG. Seven starters returned from that group but they have taken a step back by allowing 366.5 total YPG which is just 61st in the nation. The Bears are only outgaining their opponents by +4.7 net Yards-Per-Game despite their perfect record. Cal pulled off the upset due to the efforts of quarterback Chase Garbers who completed 23 of 35 passes for 351 yards with four touchdown passes. But the Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Head coach Justin Wilcox has done a great job with this Cal program in his third year with the program — but he has yet to propagate dynamic skill players on offense. Four starters returned from last year’s 7-6 team that was last in the Pac-12 in both scoring (21.5 PPG) and total yards (343.5 total YPG). Barbers has a good arm but he lacks mobility. Wilcox did not have a returning starter at running nor wide receiver. Now the Golden Bears return home where they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Sun Devils may have as much talent on defense as this Cal team this season — and they have definitely have more talent on the offensive side of the ball. Expect a close game with Arizona State having a real chance of pulling another road upset as they did against Michigan State. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona State Sun Devils (101) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-19 |
San Jose State v. Air Force -18 |
Top |
24-41 |
Loss |
-112 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-19 loss at Boise State last week as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. San Jose State (2-1) looks to build off their 31-24 upset win in Fayetteville against Arkansas as a 20-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Spartans surprising upset victory was validation for a football program under head coach Brent Brennan that had lost twenty-three of their last twenty-five games in his first two seasons with the program. Brennan has played 48 freshmen in those two years in completely rebuilding this program. Yet this remains a team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that was outgained by -148 net yards in Mountain West Conference play. Improvement should have been expected from this team — but they have still have a long way to go. A big emotional letdown is likely for this team after they pulled off their first victory over a Power Five conference team since 2006 when they knocked off Stanford. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Josh Love enjoyed the best passing day in his career by completing 32 of 49 passes for 402 yards against the Razorbacks — but the Spartans are just 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games in the month of September. I hate this situation for this team now. This is a very challenging travel schedule for this west coast team who had to travel east last week and now has to play on a short week on the road again. And one less day to prepare for the Air Force spread triple option certainly does not help things. San Jose State was torched by Army’s similar offense last year in a 52-3 loss where they allowed 341 rushing yards on 65 carries for a 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Spartans have been vulnerable against aggressive rushing attacks this season as well — Tulsa generated 256 rushing yards against them on 54 carries and three touchdowns back on September 7th. Air Force is averaging 316 rushing YPG this season behind junior quarterback Donald Hammond III who has jumpstarted this offense. In his five starts last season, Hammond III led an offense that averages 470 YPG with the team also running at a 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry clip. Hammond III is a great fit for the spread triple option of head coach Troy Calhoun given his arm strength and quick release which compliments his speed and power as a runner. There is no shame losing at Boise State on their blue field — and they matched the Broncos 355 yards of offense while controlling the football for 34:12 minutes. The Falcons held Boise State to just 95 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Air Force ranks 22nd in the nation by allowing just 91.7 rushing YPG — and they are limiting opposing rushers to only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons run defense that returned four of their top five tacklers from last season should make the Spartans one-dimensional with their passing attack tonight. Air Force also has a geographical on their home field in the high altitude of Colorado Springs, Colorado where they are 54-20 in their last seventy-four games. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams who are winning at least 50% of their games at home. This is just Air Force’s second game at home this season — and hosting this Spartans team playing with one less day of rest gives them a nice advantage.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were 5-7 last year with their seven losses determined by just -6.3 PPG. Five of their losses were determined by one scoring possession — so they could have finished with a much better record. Fourteen returning starters for a military academy football team is a very high number — and this team demonstrated their big potential this season with their 30-23 upset victory at Colorado earlier this month. Air Force is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points as the favorite. While I am cautious in laying this many points, I think the Falcons grinding and tricky rushing attack will overwhelm this Spartans team due for a letdown who are playing on a short week. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-19 |
Navy v. Memphis -10.5 |
Top |
23-35 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) looks to build off their 42-6 win at South Alabama back on September 14th as a 20.5-point favorite. Navy (2-0) comes off a 42-10 win over East Carolina two Saturdays ago back on the 14th as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Midshipmen are looking to rebound from just their second losing season since 2003. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo has eight starters back from last year’s 3-10 team that lost nine of their last ten games after a 2-1 start to the year. Navy has lost sixteen of their last twenty-one games after starting the 2017 season 5-0 which ranked them 25th in the nation which was their highest national standing in Niumatalolo’s twelve years with the program. Perhaps part of the problem is fellow American Athletic Conference opponents are getting come comfortable defending their unique spread triple-option attack? Talent may be an issue on defense after this team surrendered 33.5 PPG which was the most points they have allowed since 2007. Niumatalolo hired a new defensive coordinator in Brian Newberry who ran the defense for the previous four seasons at Kennesaw State. Newberry wants to deploy an aggressive and attacking system — but he may not have the playmakers yet to execute this scheme against the better teams in the conference. The Midshipmen opened the season with an easy one against Holy Cross who they crushed by a 45-7 score before their big victory over the Pirates. But Navy may be due to a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their previous two games by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. This will be Navy’s first game away from home this season — and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. Memphis has started the season strong with an opening 15-10 victory over Ole Miss laying 3 points and then an easy 55-24 victory over Southern before their road games against the Jaguars. The Tigers generated 530 yards of offense at South Alabama while holding them to just 248 yards of offense. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This offense does not seem to have missed a beat with junior quarterback Brady White back as the starting quarterback from last year’s team that scored 42.9 PPG while ranking 4th in the nation by averaging 523.1 total YPG. White is completing 72.2% of his passes while averaging 10.2 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdowns to two interceptions. But the exciting thing about this team in head coach Mike Norvell’s team in his fourth season with the program is the improved play of the defense. Memphis is allowing only 13.3 PPG along with just 226.3 total YPG this year. The Tigers were young on that side of the ball last year — they have eight starters back from that group that allowed -37.9 fewer Yards-Per-Game than in 2017. This year’s defense is allowing only 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry which is very encouraging when facing the Navy spread triple option. The extra days to prepare for this defense will also help defensive coordinator Adam Fuller for the Midshipmen attack — and Memphis has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when playing off their bye week. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including seven of these last eight situations.
FINAL TAKE: Norwell should have his team chomping at the bit to play this game after they suffered three net close losses determined by just one scoring possession last year. Memphis was 8-6 last year with three of those losses decided by a combined 5 points. One of those defeats was at Navy where they lost by a 22-21 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Look for the Tigers to get their revenge tonight. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-19 |
Colorado +9 v. Arizona State |
|
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (351) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (352). THE SITUATION: Colorado (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 30-23 upset loss at home to Air Force last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. Arizona State (3-0) pulled off a 10-7 upset victory at Michigan State last week as a 15.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: The Sun Devils pulled out that upset in East Lansing despite being outgained by 188 net yards. The Arizona State offense managed only 216 yards of offense against Sparty while picking up only fourteen first downs. If not for an extremely conservative offensive game plan from Michigan State along with a +1 net turnover margin that was critical in the wining this game. The Sun Devils have a talented freshman leading their offense in quarterback Jayden Daniels who coveted 15 of 26 passes for 140 yards against the Spartans defense. While the dual-threat QB has a high ceiling, he is still green — and he has two other fellow freshmen starting on the offensive line. The Arizona State looked shaky two weeks ago in a 19-7 victory over an FCS school in Sacramento State. These question marks on offense make the Sun Devils precarious favorites of at least a touchdown — they have not covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Arizona State returns home to Tempe where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Head coach Herm Edwards is doing a fine job with this football team in his second season with the program. Fifteen starters return from last year’s group that was 7-6 — but that team also benefited from a +10 net turnover margin which was tied for 11th best in the FBS. That number was rather fortunate considering that their expected net turnover margin was projected at just +0.4 — and that -9.7 net differential in expected turnover margin with actual turnover margin was the 4th highest in the nation. The Buffaloes were caught flat last week as they went into halftime at home against the Falcons trailing by a 20-10 score. Colorado looked emotionally spent from their 34-31 comeback victory at Nebraska that required overtime two weeks ago. First-year head coach Mel Tucker inherited eleven starters from last year’s 5-7 team. But that group would likely have gotten to a bowl game if their star wide receiver, Laviska Shenault, Jr., had been healthy all season. After a dynamic start to the season that put him in the Heisman Trophy buzz, a toe injury limited his effectiveness in the second half of the season until he was finally shut down after nine games. He still caught 86 balls for 1011 receiving yards. So far this season, Shenault has caught 16 balls for 203 yards with two touchdown passes. He will be the most dynamic player on the field tonight. The Buffaloes also have an edge at quarterback in fifth-year senior Steven Montez who is completed 64.7% of his passes last year. The dual-threat QB is an NFL prospect with a significant edge in experience over Daniels.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 28-21 score in Boulder as a 2-point favorite. With the Buffaloes having a significant edge in experience at QB, expect a close game between these two teams in their opening game in Pac-12 play. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado Buffaloes (351) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-19 |
Western Michigan v. Syracuse -4.5 |
Top |
33-52 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Syracuse (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-6 loss at home last Saturday night to Clemson as a 28-point underdog. Western Michigan (2-1) comes off a 57-10 win over Georgia State as a 9-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. There is no shame to losing the reigning National Champions —but that setback came after a brutal 63-20 loss at Maryland the previous week. Expectations were high entering the season in what was considered the best roster yet for head coach Dino Babers in his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s 10-3 team that crushed West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl by a 34-18 score. Perhaps the loss to the Terrapins will help the team recover from the disappointment of not pulling the upset over the Tigers last week in a game they had circled on their calendar. The Orange need to get back to playing good football with sophomore quarterback Tommy Devito making good decisions, his wide receivers hanging on to the football, and the offensive line doing a better job of blocking. Syracuse has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two straight games by at least three touchdowns. They should get their offense going after only managing 187 yards against Clemson. The Orange have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. And while the Syracuse defense allowed Clemson to average 8.6 Yards-Per-Play for 612 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after surrendering at least 475 yards in their last contest. The Orange do stay at home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Broncos may be just what the doctor ordered with their porous defense that allowed 50.8 PPG in their six losses last season. Western Michigan allowed 51 points along with 582 yards of offense in their 41-point loss to a Michigan State team that could not move the football last week in their meager 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State. That was the only Power Five conference opponent that the Broncos have faced so far this season. They did crush the Panthers last week with the help of a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning losing record at home. Additionally, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in expected shootouts with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Syracuse is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 16 of their last 19 games against teams from the Mid-American Conference. The Orange soundly defeated the Broncos in Kalamazoo last August 31st by a 55-42 score. Look for a similar result this afternoon. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-19 |
Florida International +7.5 v. Louisiana Tech |
|
31-43 |
Loss |
-130 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida International Golden Panthers (307) plus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (308). THE SITUATION: Florida International (1-2) looks to build off a 30-17 victory over New Hampshire last Saturday as a 13.5-point favorite. Louisiana Tech (2-1) comes off a 35-7 win at Bowling Green as a 12.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an urgent game for head coach Butch Davis’ team after they opened the season with losses at Tulane and at home to Western Kentucky. Expectations were high for this team entering the season as they returned sixteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that defeated Toledo by a 35-32 score in the Bahamas Bowl. The Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. And while they have yet to cover the point spread in their three games this season, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. This team was without their senior quarterback James Morgan last week but he has been upgraded to probable with his ankle recovering nicely. FIU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow Conference USA foes. Louisiana Tech played their best game of the season last week after suffering a 45-14 loss at Texas to being the season before struggling at home in a 20-14 loss to Grambling. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Louisiana Tech has been consistently good in the seven years under head coach Skip Holtz — but they rarely have been great in that period of time. The Bulldogs offense is skilled but lacks dynamic playmakers. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 49.5 to 56. Louisiana Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.
FINAL TAKE: FIU is 8-3 in games decided by one scoring possession in Davis’ three seasons with the program. While maybe that suggests that the Golden Panthers are due for some regression when it comes to winning close games, this is a team that finds themselves in close contests. Florida International has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as the underdog. 10* CFB Florida International-Louisiana Tech CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida International Golden Panthers (307) plus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-19 |
Colorado State v. Arkansas -9.5 |
|
34-55 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (156) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (155). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-17 loss at Ole Miss last Saturday as a 5-point underdog. Colorado State (1-1) won their first game of the season last week with their 38-13 triumph over Western Illinois as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for second-year head coach Chad Morris with his team not looking very good either last week or in their meager 20-13 win over Portland State in their opening game. Arkansas was just 2-10 last year in his first year with the program. Narrow 7-point losses to LSU and Texas A&M continued to four net close losses decided by one scoring possession suggested this team was much better than their record. A -10 net turnover margin along with a bevy of injuries did not help matters either. But Morris needs to have his team respond this week after getting outgained by the Rebels by -122 net yards due to their defense surrendering 483 yards of offense. The Razorbacks have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing by double-digits to an SEC rival. Look for the Arkansas defense to play better for their veteran coordinator John Chavis. While they allowed 237 rushing yards last week, they are then 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Returning home will help where the Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set at 63 to 70. Arkansas has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Don’t be surprised if Morris taps Nick Starkel to be the starting quarterback this afternoon after he completed 17 of 24 passes for 201 yards to spark the offense in the second half. The grad transfer from Texas A&M has been in competition with another grad transfer in Ben Hicks who played for Morris at SMU. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while the Rams have raced out to score 28 and 21 points in the first half of their first two games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 20 points in the first half of two straight games. Colorado State generated 585 yards last week against their FCS opponent — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of last year’s 34-27 upset victory for Colorado State as a 14-point underdog on September 8th. This will be the Rams’ first true road game this season traveling to Fayetteville to face a Razorbacks team that will be using this revenge opportunity as a measuring stick for the development of the program in Morris’ second season. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Arkansas Razorbacks (156) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-19 |
Washington State -9 v. Houston |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). THE SITUATION: Washington State (2-0) has won their first two games this season after their 59-17 win over Northern Colorado last Saturday as a 43-point favorite. Houston (1-1) bounced-back from their nationally televised loss at Oklahoma by defeating Prairie View A&M by a 37-17 score as a 36-point favorite. This game will be playing on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE WASHINGTON STATE MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Mike Leach returned thirteen starters from last year’s team that finished 11-2. The biggest challenge Leach had in the offseason was finding his new quarterback after he found so much success with grad transfer Gardner Minshew who now finds himself the starting quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The expectation was that Leach would use another grad transfer Gage Gubrond who starred at Eastern Washington. But an impressive fall camp compelled Leach to tap fifth-year senior, Anthony Gordon, as his starter. In Leach, We Trust at this point when it comes to operating his version of the Air Raid offense. He has long been preparing for the post-Luke Falk era who was a three-year starter for this program. He brought in Gordon and Trey Tinsley (another fifth-year senior) as junior college transfers two years ago — and he believes in competition with the Gubrond transfer along with recruiting a talented younger quarterback in redshirt freshman Cammon Cooper. Gordon has validated Leach’s decision as he has thrown for 884 yards with nine touchdown passes and just one interception in his first two starts. Gordon found nine different receivers last week and looks well-equipped to run Leach’s offense. With the top four receivers back from last year along with talented rusher and pass-catching threat in running back Max Borghi along with a strong offensive line that returned four starters from last year, this offense should continue to put up big numbers — and that makes this Cougars team dangerous even when playing on the road. Washington State has covered the points read in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. These Cougars generated 594 yards last week — and not only have they covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Gordon has passed for 481 and 507 passing yards in his two starts — and Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 325 passing yards in two straight games. These Cougars have raced out to fast starts as well as they have scored 24 and 35 points in the first half of their first two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 20 points in the first half in two straight games. Washington State usually fares well in these expected higher scoring games as well as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. Gordon and this Air Raid offense should shred this Houston defense that surrendered 686 yards to the Sooners in their first game. While Oklahoma makes many defenses look bad, these Cougars’ defenders made it easy for Jalen Hurts in his debut with his new team as he had wide-open wide receivers all night. Houston returned only four starters from last year’s defense while losing future NFL players at all three levels of the unit making this a major rebuilding job for new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen. I put little stock in their holding Prairie Valley A&M to just 318 yards of offense last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by at least 17 points. Furthermore, while these Cougars raced out to a 34-10 lead last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last contest. Houston potentially has a dynamic offense of their own with senior D’Eriq King under center — but he has struggled at times to get in synch with the new offensive system of first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. King passed for only 139 yards last week on 15 of 26 passing against an FCS opponent while not rushing for positive yards. That is not a good sign for what is shaping up to be a shootout — and this Washington State defense has been much improved over the last few seasons after seeing improvements in points allowed in four straight games. Six starters return from that unit for second-year defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys from a group that led the FBS by generating sacks in 14% of their opponents in Passing Down situations. Washington State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Washington State usually thrives in situations like this — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in September while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 non-conference games. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on field turf. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-19 |
North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3 |
|
18-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (2-0) looks to build off their 41-21 win at Rice last week as a 20-point favorite last Friday. North Carolina (2-0) looks to build off their 28-25 upset win at home to Miami (FL) last Saturday as a 5-point underdog. This is officially considered a non-conference game when it comes to these in-state rivals who wanted to get on each other's schedule again despite being in opposite divisions in the ACC — so the result will not count for the conference record of either team.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels have been a nice story to start the season with their prodigal son in head coach Mack Brown returning to the program he had great success with (before taking the Texas job) — they have pulled off two straight upset victories over South Carolina and then the Hurricanes last week. But with this North Carolina now playing their first true road game of the season, look for the bubble to burst tonight. Fourteen starters returned from last year’s 2-9 team that imploded last year in Larry Fedora’s seventh season with the program with injuries and suspensions. Fedora clearly lost the locker room — and things could have been much better without a 2-8 record in games decided by one possession over the last two seasons. But the talent level has declined on the defensive side of the football over the years with the group Brown inherited being on the small side. The Tar Heels surrendered 309 passing yards to the Hurricanes last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Since 2013, North Carolina has also finished last or second to last in run defense in the ACC. Brown has entrusted the offense to a true freshman in Sam Howell who completed 16 of 24 passes for 274 yards against the Miami defense. This will be his first start in a hostile environment after the neutral site game with South Carolina was played in Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. This remains a program that is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of September. The Tar Heels have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in expected high-scoring contests with the Total set at 63 or higher. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Head coach Dave Clawson returns twelve starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 after their 37-34 victory over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl. That Demon Deacons team was also hit hard by injuries with 34 starts lost from initial starters. Clawson has the decisive edge at quarterback in this game with junior Jamie Newman seizing the job in the offseason after winning three of his last four games last year playing in relief for the injured Sam Hartman including winning MVP in their bowl game. Newman completed 21 of 27 passes last week for 317 yards with three touchdown passes against Rice. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Demon Deacons have only committed one turnover in their first two games as well — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest is dealing with some injuries with running back Cade Carney and wide receiver Kendall Hinton both having issues. Freshman running back Kenneth Walker stepped up last week in Carney’s absence last week but the senior has been upgraded to probable for tonight. Hinton is doubtful with his hamstring injury but Newman still has two reliable targets in wide receivers Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington. 10* CFB North Carolina-Wake Forest ESPN Special with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-19 |
Wyoming v. Texas State +7.5 |
|
23-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas State Bobcats (354) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (353). THE SITUATION: Texas State (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 41-7 loss at Texas A&M two Thursdays ago as a 33.5-point underdog. Wyoming (1-0) comes off a 37-31 upset victory at home over Missouri as a 15-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s victory was the result of a number of very fortunate events for them. They surrendered 537 yards to the Tigers while gaining just 389 yards of offense — and 136 of those yards came off two long broken tackle touchdown runs of 61 and 75 yards. The Cowboys enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in that game while scoring on a 30-yard fumble recovering. Wyoming only generated 15 first downs while giving up 28 first downs to Mizzou. Laramie is often a difficult place to play for teams traveling from out east — playing 7200 square feet above sea level is a challenging experience for players unfamiliar with those conditions. The Cowboys are 23-15 straight-up in their last thirty-eight games at home. But the flip side of that coin is that Wyoming is just 9-26 in their last thirty-five games on the road. It is even worse for this team in the rare times they are favored away from home as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games laying 3.5 to 7 points. QB Kelly Bryant torched this Cowboys defense for 423 yards — and they have then failed to chef the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Wyoming had one of the most underrated defenses in the nation last year that ranked 19th in the nation by allowing just 326.2 total YPG but they lost five multiyear starters from that team. Furthermore, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in the month of September. I am comfortable giving Texas State a pass last week after getting blown out on the road to Texas A&M. This team should be much better from their 3-9 team from last season with nineteen starters back from that group. First-year head coach Jake Spavital along with offensive coordinator Bob Stitt should get this offense moving sooner rather than later. The Bobcats suffered three net close losses decided by one scoring possession which obscured that they were only outgained by -60.8 net YPG in Mountain West Conference play which usually produces a much better record than their 1-7 conference mark. Texas State did not score in the first half of their game with the Aggies — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Bobcats have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring double-digits in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming will be mistaking a mistake if they take Texas State lightly — but it will likely be difficult for them to not suffer an emotional letdown after knocking off an SEC team. The Bobcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Don’t be surprised if Spavital rallies his team to pull the upset this week — but take the points for valuable insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Texas State Bobcats (354) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (353). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 |
|
24-42 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (314) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (313). THE SITUATION: Purdue (0-1) looks to rebound from a 34-31 upset loss at Nevada last Friday night as an 11-point underdog. Vanderbilt (0-1) enter this game coming off a 30-6 loss at home to Georgia as a 22-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue held a 24-7 halftime lead over the Wolf Pack along with a 31-14 third-quarter lead before a rash of turnovers let Nevada get back into that game before they stole that game with a last-second field goal. A -5 net turnover margin spoiled the Boilermaker’s 519 to 404 net yardage edge in that game on the road. Third-year head coach Jeff Brohm should ensure his team responds well in this game — they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Purdue has also won 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. The Boilermakers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Now Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Twelve starters return from last year’s 6-7 team that got crushed in the Music City Bowl to Auburn by a 63-14 score but who also upset Ohio State earlier in the year by a 49-20 score. The Boilermakers are led by senior quarterback Elijah Sindelar who completed 34 of 52 passes for 423 yards and four touchdown passes last week. Purdue should move the ball again against this Commodores defense that surrendered 481 yards to the Bulldogs last week. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in the last game. Purdue has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the month of September — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten. Vanderbilt may struggle to pick themselves off the mat from their loss to Georgia has this have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns against an SEC rival. Head coach Derek Mason had to replace a four-year starter at quarterback in Kyle Shurmur in the offseason. He brought in grad transfer Riley Neal from Ball State who won the job over Shurmur’s backup last season in Deuce Wallace — but Neal might have very well lost his starting gig with the Cardinals if he had stayed with that program. Neal completed 14 of 25 passes but for only 85 yards last week while leading an offense that generated just 225 total yards. The Commodores have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. Vanderbilt was 6-7 last year after losing to Baylor in the Texas Bowl by a 45-38 score. Mason has only twelve starters back from that team — and only two of the top seven tacklers on defense returned. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. The Commodores have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important non-conference game for both teams who do not want to start the season 0-2 with challenging conference games looming which will make returning to a bowl game difficult. Purdue has better starting talent than Vandy — and home-field advantage should help them win this game by more than a touchdown. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Purdue Boilermakers (314) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-19 |
West Virginia v. Missouri -13.5 |
Top |
7-38 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). THE SITUATION: Missouri (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 37-31 loss at Wyoming last Saturday despite being a 15-point favorite. West Virginia (1-0) comes off a 20-13 win at home over James Madison as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Missouri raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter while dominating the yardage battle with the Cowboys by a 144 to 28 margin. But then the turnover bug hit the Tigers with Wyoming taking full advantage to go into halftime with a 27-17 lead. Missouri outgained the Cowboys by a dominant 537 to 389 yardage margin but their -3 net turnover margin cost them the game — including a fumble that Wyoming returned for a 33-yard touchdown. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road laying at least a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Missouri has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 33 of their last 49 home games after a loss on the road. The silver lining for this team was the strong play under center of quarterback Kelly Bryant. The former Clemson quarterback completed 31 of 48 passes for 423 yards with two touchdowns. The transfer looks to be a fine replacement for the graduated Drew Lock who was drafted by the Denver Broncos. Thirteen starters returned from an 8-5 team last year with seven joining Bryant on offense and six starters along with five of the top seven tacklers back on defense. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia escaped suffering an upset loss to a James Madison team that ranks #2 in the nation in the FCS. But it is not a good sign for this team that the Dukes dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. That does not bode well when now traveling to face an SEC team with five offensive linemen that all weigh at least 310 pounds. The Mountaineers survived that game through special teams and turnovers. West Virginia blocked a field goal and recovered a muffed point en route to a +3 net turnover advantage. The Mountaineers only generated 13 first downs against the Dukes defense while losing the yardage battle by a 328 to 294 margin. This is a football program in transition after head coach Dana Holgorsen departed on his own volition to take the head coaching job at Houston after an 8-4 season that finished with a 34-18 loss to Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Perhaps Holgorsen saw the writing on the wall this year with only three starters returning on offense from a group that lost its top five players including QB Will Grier, their top three wide receivers, and left tackle Yodney Cajuste. The new head coach is Neal Brown who did a good job at Troy — but only after enduring a 4-9 record in his first year rebuilding that program. Brown brought in Oklahoma grad transfer Austin Kendall to be his starting quarterback — but he kept him on a short leash least week with him mostly dinking-and-dunking to completing 27 passes of his 42 attempts for 260 yards. West Virginia only rushed for 34 yards in that game which is not a good sign traveling on the road to Mizzou — they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.
FINAL TAKE: West Virginia is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They face a more talented team that will be very angry after suffering a bad upset loss on the road. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-19 |
Marshall +13 v. Boise State |
Top |
7-14 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Marshall (1-0) looks to build off their 56-17 win over VMI last Saturday as a 44-point favorite. Boise State (1-0) is riding high after pulling off a 36-31 upset win in Tallahassee against Florida State as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos found themselves trailing by 24-6 and 31-13 scores in the second quarter before skunking the Seminoles in the second-half by a 17-0 score to pull off that 18-point comeback for the upset win. Florida State head coach Willie Taggart blamed a lack of conditioning for his team’s collapse with many players dealing with cramps in the August Florida heat. Boise State will not receive similar luck this week against this well-coached Marshall team in the tenth season under head coach Doc Holliday. The key for this Broncos team this year will be the play of their quarterback after seeing their four-year starter in Brett Rypien finally graduate and move on to the NFL in the offseason. The highly touted true freshman, Hank Bachmeier, played as great as could possibly be expected on Saturday by completing 30 of 51 passes for 407 yards. But this sets up this very young quarterback and the rest of this team to suffer a huge emotional letdown after last week’s second-half triumph. Remember, these are the same players that dug that 18-point hole. Despite the mystique of the blue field in Boise, the Broncos have not been a very good team relative to point spread expectations at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. This remains a team that lost a number of important pieces on offense last year from their 10-3 team. Besides replacing the four-year starting quarterback, the Broncos lost their workhorse running back, Alexander Mattison, who rushed for over 1400 yards last year along with their top two receivers. These veterans helped the offense convert on 52.5% of their 3rd downs which was 3rd best in the nation — that is a number that is bound to regress. Boise State is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The defense returns seven starters but lost four of their top five players in tackles-for-loss. But this is a unit that only picked off seven passes which is the fewest for this program since 1968. The Broncos were also third-best in the nation by recovering 74% of the fumbles they saw on the field. If that number regresses back to the expected 50% mean, this team probably does not win 10 times last year. Marshall should be very excited to prove that they belong in the conversation regarding the top non-Power Five conference teams in the FBS. They return fourteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that concluded their season by crushing South Florida in their stadium by a 38-20 score in the Gasparilla Bowl. Quarterback Isaiah Green led an offense that generated 503 yards against the Bulls — he enters his sophomore year with confidence who will likely take a big step in his development. Green completed 18 of 28 passes (to eleven different targets) for 238 yards and four touchdown passes while adding another 46 yards on the ground in a good tune-up for this team. The Thundering Herd bring an underrated defense into this game as well with six starters back from last year’s group that was tied for 27th in the nation by limiting opponents to just 338.7 total YPG. The Marshall run defense ranked 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 104.3 rushing YPG — and this was no fluke after ranking 19th in the nation in run defense in 2017. The Thundering Herd held VMI to only 56 rushing yards while outrushing them by 222 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Marshall has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in fifteen straight games — so they will likely force the true freshman quarterback to beat them. The Thundering Herd forced 24 turnovers last season — don’t be surprised if an overconfident Bachmeier makes some mistakes tonight. Holliday usually has his team ready to play in the early part of the season — they are 15-7-3 ATS in their last 25 games in the month of September.
FINAL TAKE: Marshall embraces the role of the underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games getting the points which include them covering the point spread in five of their last six games on the road as an underdog. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-19 |
Notre Dame v. Louisville +19.5 |
|
35-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville was a complete dumpster fire last year under head coach Bobby Petrino who checked out from working hard as a football coach a number of years ago. The Cardinals were kryptonite to bettors last year as they suffered point spread losses by an average of -17.5 PPG — and they failed to cover the point spread by -21.8 PPG over their last five games when the players had clearly quit on the team. Kudos to those who consistently bet against Louisville down the stretch of the season (I just stayed away since any nominal increase in effort would have likely produced a point spread cover as double-digit dogs in those games). The Cardinals still have talent that first-year head coach Scott Satterfield has inherited including fourteen returning starters. While the Louisville defense allowed at least 52 points in each of their last five games, they held their first five opponents to a more manageable 26.0 PPG along with 385.8 total YPG — and those numbers are a better guide as to what to expect this season before this team went off the rails. Satterfield did a great job rebuilding the Appalachian State program — and while it will take awhile to rebuild the culture at Louisville, he will get this team playing hard again. The defense seems rejuvenated playing for defensive coordinator Bryan Brown after their humiliating end to last season — he brings an attacking system that emphasizes speed and smarts that was very effective for the Mountaineers. Satterfield also tapped Cort Dennison to serve as the co-defensive coordinator as he returns to the program after coaching at Oregon last year after a four-year stint as an assistant defensive coach for Petrino with the Cardinals — so he knows the players when they were younger and playing in a much more confident group. Notre Dame may be looking past this Louisville team after losing to the eventual national champions in the College Football Semifinals in their last game. Facing the Cardinals is a steep drop in glamour after hosting Michigan to begin last season. The Fighting Irish defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. On offense, the Irish are excited about what senior Ian Book can do as the starter for the entire season — they averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight regular-season starts last year (before being exposed by the outstanding Clemson defense). But Book is missing two of his important targets in wide receiver Michael Young and tight end Cole Kmet who are both out with collarbone injuries. Notre Dame is also dealing with some significant attrition on offense with running back Dexter Williams along with wide receiver Miles Boykin and tight end Alize Mack moving on to the NFL. The Irish are not quite at the level of the elite college football teams in their ability to just reload after seeing significant losses to the NFL. The last time Notre Dame lost this much talent, they suffered a 4-8 season the next year.
FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have won twenty-two of their last twenty-six games — but they have also won their last seven games decided by one possession including four net close wins by 8 points or less last season. While Kelly deserves credit for the leadership he has provided for this team to win these close games, those results help to inflate the perceived value of this team. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when laying 14.5 or more points. 10* CFB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-19 |
Oregon v. Auburn -3.5 |
|
21-27 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). THE SITUATION: Auburn (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished off an 8-5 season by destroying Purdue by a 63-14 score in the Music City Bowl. Oregon (0-0) has seventeen starters back from their 9-4 campaign last year that concluded with a 7-6 win over Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Ducks are intriguing to many bettors with all those returning starters to a program that once represented the Pac-12 on the national stage in high profile games like this. Oregon also has one of the top NFL quarterback projects in Justin Herbert who bypassed going pro to return to this team. But this Ducks team has made most of their noise as of late when playing at home in Autzen Stadium where they enjoy a significant advantage. But Oregon has lost eight of their last twelve games away from home on neutral fields or hostile environments. The Ducks were outscored in those games by -5.1 net PPG while scoring just 25 PPG. Oregon has also been outgained by -61 net YPG in those twelve away games. This compares unfavorably to their 12-2 record in their last fourteen games at home where they are scoring 44.4 PPG while outscoring their opponents by +19.4 PPG. Herbert was not nearly as effective away from home last year as well. The Ducks scored only 27.3 PPG on the road last year which was -7.5 PPG lower than their season average — and they also averaged just 209 passing YPG in those games which was almost 40 yards less than their 248 passing YPG mark overall. The Oregon defense is also an issue for this team if they wish to take a step up in competition — they ranked just 55th in the nation by allowing 385.9 total YPG. The Ducks have lost four straight games away from home when facing a ranked opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Auburn will be starting a freshman at quarterback in Bo Nix after he enjoyed a prolific high school career in Alabama. But this is a program that is well versed in high profile games like this. Besides their SEC competition including the Iron Bowl with Alabama every year, the Tigers defeated Washington in Atlanta on the neutral field of Mercedez Benz Stadium last year by a 21-16 score — and I consider that Huskies team to be much better than this Ducks team now. Auburn has won eleven of their last thirteen opening games to a new season. Oregon has received tons of accolades in the offseason with their five returning starters on the offensive line who lead the entire FBS with 153 combined starts between them. But the Tigers have five 5th year senior starters on their offensive line to help protect Nix. Furthermore, Auburn may very well have the best defensive line in the country. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have won six straight games straight-up against Pac-12 opponents when playing on a neutral field with their win over the Huskies adding to that streak last year. While the departed Jarrett Stidham has looked very good in the preseason for the Patriots (and he just won the backup job today with New England releasing Brian Hoyer), Nix may be a better fit for the Gus Malzahn offense given his ability to move the ball with his legs. 10* CFB Oregon-Auburn ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-31-19 |
Toledo +12 v. Kentucky |
|
24-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). THE SITUATION: Toledo (0-0) returns eleven starters from last year’s 7-6 team that lost to Florida International in the Bahamas Bowl by a 35-32 score. Kentucky (0-0) has ten starters back from last year’s triumphant 10-3 squad who defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl by a 27-24 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are the only team in the nation to not take a step backward regarding their win-loss record in the last six seasons. Seventh-year head coach Mark Stoops has done a fantastic job building this program. But this Kentucky team will be very hard-pressed to keep that streak alive this season. This is a program that is simply not used to losing All-SEC talent — but Stoops must replace three players on defense who have taken their talents to the NFL in safety Mike Edwards, linebacker Jordan Jones and their leader on defense in linebacker Josh Allen who bypassed going to the NFL as a junior last season. The Wildcats return only four starters on defense. The identity of the offense will also change with running back Benny Snell decided to go pro. Kentucky will rely on a committee of running backs this season while putting more of the onus on offense on junior quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats were a defense-first team last year that leaned heavily on Snell — a change in identity may not fit the skill set of Wilson who passed for only 1889 yards last year while throwing just 11 touchdowns along with eight interceptions. Kentucky finished 5-3 in SEC play last year but they were outgained by -18 net YPG in those games. This team has pulled ten upset victories in the last three years under Stoops — but being a double-digit favorite is a role they are not nearly as comfortable with embracing. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games when laying the points. Additionally, Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in six straight non-conference games at home. Toledo will be relishing this opportunity to knock off a Power-Five school. They should get much better play from quarterback Mitchell Guadagni who returns for his senior season. Guadagni was slowed by both a concussion and a broken collarbone last year but still managed an efficient 13-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He is supported by a backfield of Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour who combined to rush for 1482 yards last year. The Rockets have typically been tough road warriors under Candle as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road. Toledo has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the month of August.
FINAL TAKE: Kentucky would like to think they are simply reloading this season — but this is a program that more often than not finds themselves rebuilding after outlier seasons like last year. Look for the Rockets to give this Wildcats team all that they can handle. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-30-19 |
Oklahoma State -13 v. Oregon State |
Top |
52-36 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 7-6 after upsetting Missouri in the Liberty Bowl by a 38-33 score. Oregon State (0-0) returns sixteen starters from last year’s team that stumbled to a 2-10 record.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State is usually a reliable double-digit favorite even on the road under head coach Mike Gundy beginning his fifteenth year with the program. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After three straight seasons with double-digit victories, Oklahoma State took a step back last year. Despite scoring 38.4 PPG (13th in the FBS) and averaging 500.2 total YPG (10th in the FBS), the offense took a step back from the previous season in large part because their quarterbacks completed only 59.4% of their passes while throwing 13 interceptions. In 2017, the Cowboys scored 45.0 PPG while generating 569.8 total YPG which was 4th and 2nd best in the country. Gundy may have found a gem to be his new offensive coordinator in Sean Gleeson who ran a very innovative offense at Princeton. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of surprise regarding what specialty plays Gleeson unveils in his debut with this offense. The Cowboys have not named a starting quarterback between redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and graduate transfer Dru Brown who both were on the roster last season learning this offense. Gleeson often used more than one QB at Princeton so don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State rotates both quarterbacks tonight to confuse the Beavers with different looks. The Cowboys remain loaded with talent at the skill positions with three of their top four receivers returning this season — headlined by junior All-American Tylan Wallace — along with running back Chuba Hubbard who averaged over 100 rushing YPG against the gauntlet of Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU and Missouri. Gundy’s teams start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of August. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside the Big-12. And in their last 17 contests in expected high-scoring affairs with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. The defense should improve in the second season under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Oregon State’s passing attack is the strength of their offense with returning starters at wide receiver and a sixth-year senior Jake Luton who has received medical exemptions after injuries have limited him to just nine starters in the last two seasons. But the strength of the Cowboys defense will likely be their secondary with all four starters returning. Oregon State will be without their top wideout in the speedy Trevon Bradford as the senior is out with a back injury. The Beavers may also be without their senior safety Jalen Moore who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. These are two tough opening week injuries that will make it more difficult for Oregon State to stay competitive in this game. The Beavers were outscored by -20 PPG last season while also losing the yardage battle by -132 net YPG — and that margin was even worse in Pac-12 play where they were outgained by -178 YPG. Moore had 102 tackles last season — and even with him on the field, Oregon State allowed their opponents to have a Success Rate of 53.4% which was 129th in the FBS. That is an ominous number when facing this powerful Cowboys offensive attack. The Beavers allowed 45.7 PPG along with 536.8 total YPG which both ranked 128th in the nation. Home field has not been much of an advantage for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August.
FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys allowed 452.5 total YPG last year, they do return five starters from that group which is a good sign for improvement (or at least that this team is undervalued right now) — and that helps place Oklahoma State into an early-season historical angle that has been 69% effective since 1992. In games played in the first two weeks of the season, road teams who allowed at least 400 YPG last season but return at least five defensive starters have then covered the point spread in 61 of the last 88 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-30-19 |
UMass v. Rutgers -14.5 |
|
21-48 |
Win
|
101 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (0-0) return thirteen starters from a team that finished just 1-11 last season. UMass (0-0) has eight starters returning from a team that was 4-8 last year playing as an independent.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chris Ash is on the hot seat in his fourth year in the program with a 7-29 record in his tenure. Rutgers has particularly struggled in Big Ten play where they are just 3-24 in the Ash era. It is very important for this team to get off to a good start which is why I expect a blowout tonight. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August. There are reasons for optimism. The Rutgers defense made dramatic improvements midseason last year when Ash started working directly with the group. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator saw that group allow 26.5 PPG over their last six games which was almost a 10 PPG improvement over the 36.3 PPG they allowed in their first six games. There is also continuity on offense for the first time in a decade with coordinator John McNulty returning for his second season overseeing that group. While the Scarlet Knights have not named a starter, don’t be surprised if McLane Carter is tapped over redshirt sophomore Artur Sitkowski who struggled last year. Carter is a graduate transfer from Texas Tech who was brought in to offer competition to Sitkowski who was last in the nation with a 76.4 Passer Efficiency Rating. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at home. UMass is an appetizing opponent for the Scarlet Knights as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played in the opening two weeks of the season. Former Arkansas State offensive coordinator Walt Bell makes his debut as a head coach tonight for this program that lost all eight of their games last year by double-digits. Bell is considered a good recruiter but it will take time for that strength to start paying dividends wit this program. I expect a significant decline in the offensive production of this team with three-year starter, Andrew Ford, finally graduating. Bell has yet to name a starter between Michael Curtis, Randall West, and junior college transfer Andrew Brito. Without Ford under center, it will be very difficult for UMass to continue to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play on first down as they did last season which was 8th best in the FBS. On defense, is it good news or bad news that the Minutemen return only three starters from last years team that ranked 123rd in the FBS by allowing 484.8 total YPG? UMass surrendered at least 55 points in six games last season. The cupboard may be very bare for this independent program that lost seven of their top eleven tacklers from last year. The Minutemen registered only ten sacks last year while ranking 125th in the FBS by allowing 274.8 rushing YPG. UMass has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. The Minutemen have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: UMass has lost seven straight road openers since joining the FBS in 2012 — with the average losing margin being -26 PPG. Ash and this Scarlet Knights program needs a blowout victory to establish positive momentum so expect them to keep their foot on the accelerator all night. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-29-19 |
Utah -5 v. BYU |
|
30-12 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-0) looks to build off a 9-5 season that concluded on a down note with a 31-20 loss to Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. BYU (0-0) finished 7-6 last season after defeating Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 49-18 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: BYU returns seventeen starters from last year’s team along with twenty-six sophomores that played in games last season. But this team still lacks in experience and talent when compared to their in-state rival that is loaded with senior talent and future NFL players. The Cougars have lost eight straight Holy Wars against Utah. They lack a bell-cow running back with Squally Canada graduated from last year’s team. BYU will have a hard time running the football against a stout Utah defense that returns all four starters on the defensive line that finished 5th in the nation by allowing only 100.3 rushing YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first month of the season. BYU has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Utah is a sleeper team to make a run for the College Football Playoffs with fourteen returning starters. The Utes won their first nine games last year before enduring two tough injuries to QB Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss with both unable to play the final five games of the season. The Utah offense rattled off five straight games where they scored at least 40 points with a healthy Huntley and Moss. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has bolstered this offense by getting Andy Ludwig to return to the program to serve as their offensive coordinator. Utah averaged 36.9 PPG in their 2008 Sugar Bowl season with Ludwig coordinating the offense. The Utes defense is always quite good under Whittingham — they have held their opponents to under 20 PPG ten times in the past twenty-two seasons while surrounding more than 25.0 PPG just twice during that long span. Utah returns seven starters from a group that ranked 17th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG — and they also ranked 14th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 315.6 total YPG. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: BYU will be looking to avenge a 35-27 loss at Utah last November where they blew a 27-7 third-quarter lead. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 meetings with the Utes including their last four opportunities to host Utah. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-29-19 |
UCLA +3.5 v. Cincinnati |
Top |
14-24 |
Loss |
-100 |
48 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) looks to rebound from a 3-9 campaign last season. Cincinnati (0-0) enjoyed an 11-2 record last season that was capped by a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA started the season losing seven straight games last year under first-year head coach Chip Kelly. But a rotation of players loaded with freshmen and sophomores continued to improve with the Bruins winning three of their last five games including a 34-27 upset win over USC in the second-to-last game of their season. This should be a vastly improved team this year under a very good head coach in Kelly. The UCLA offense now has a clear direction with sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center who is a great fit for Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense schemes. The Bruins started last year with senior transfer from Michigan Wilton Speight as the starting quarterback who was not a great fit for Kelly’s typical offense since he lacked mobility as a pocket passer. UCLA also saw the emergence of senior running back Joshua Kelley who shined during conference play (including 289 yards against USC) en route to 1243 rushing yards. The Bruins offense averaged only 312 YPG in their first four games but generated 432 total YPG over their last eight games. With nine starters returning this season in the second-year of Kelly’s system, that level of productivity is probably the floor for this team. The defense should also be better after Kelly inherited a unit that allowed 36.6 PPG while ranking 122nd in the FBS by allowing 483.7 total YPG. Last year’s group allowed -2.5 fewer PPG along with 90 less rushing YPG — and with ten starters back which includes four sophomores who started as a freshman last season, this group should also make a big jump in their quality of play. UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Cincinnati returns fourteen starters from last year’s team including redshirt sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who led the team last season. This was an offense that was perhaps too dependent on big plays last season — they averaged 3rd and long on 46.7% of their third downs last year. The biggest concern for the offense is the offensive line that returns only two starters. The defense returns seven starters from an outstanding group that was 11th in the nation by allowing just 303.5 total YPG. But the stout Bearcats defensive line from last season must replace all three of their starters including two outstanding leaders in defensive tackles Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland. Cincinnati has not retained much of a home-field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Furthermore, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening game between these two teams last season where Cincinnati pulled the upset on the road in a Rose Bowl by a 26-17 score despite being a two-touchdown underdog. Too much was being expected about that Kelly team in his first year with the Bruins program — but with an entire offseason to prepare for this rematch, look for UCLA to be primed to pull the upset in this revenge opportunity that can immediately launch this program into gear in Kelly’s second season. But take the points for a little road dog insurance. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-19 |
Arizona v. Hawaii +11.5 |
Top |
38-45 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) looks to build off an 8-6 campaign last year the culminated in a 31-14 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Hawai’i Bowl. Arizona (0-0) looks to improve on a 5-7 campaign last year where they failed to reach a bowl game in the first year under head coach Kevin Sumlin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are expected to improve this season to at least be bowl eligible this year with fifteen starters back. The hope is that senior quarterback Khalil Tate will return to his 2017 form after an early ankle injury limited his ability to move the ball with his legs. Tate rushed for only 224 yards last year after gaining 1141 yards on the ground in 2017. But Tate regressed as a passer as well as he completed only 56% of his passes which was a 6.2% drop from his 62% completion percentage in his sophomore season. While some of that can be explained away from being stuck in the pocket dependent on his arm, it seems also true that Tate simply struggled to adjust to offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone’s system. Tate is a phenomenal athlete — but he is not the most cerebral of quarterbacks. The pressure will be on him to keep Arizona one step ahead of their opponents with a suspect defense that was 92nd in the nation last year by allowing 432.0 total YPG. Eight starters return for defensive coordinator Marcel Yates — but this is a small unit that still lacks an identity. Sumlin’s teams tend to underachieve on the road — the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by more than a touchdown but no more than 14 points. This is expected to be a high-scoring contest — but the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 63 or higher. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the number set at 70 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at least at 70. Fourth-year head coach Nick Rolovich returns eighteen starters from last year’s group that far exceeded preseason expectations. Junior quarterback Cole McDonald is not being given nearly as much benefit of the doubt as Tate is for Arizona despite his dealing with injuries last season that impacted his productivity in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 42.0 PPG in their first eight games last year — and McDonald is fully healthy again with eight other returning starters on offense. I expect a big day from the dual-threat QB against this suspect Wildcats defense that finished second-to-last in the Pac-12 in defensive pass efficiency. I also think the defense will take a step in the right direction under Corey Baton who is the first returning coordinator in nine years for this unit. Baton has nine returning starters back.
FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i typically starts the season strong as they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games in the first two weeks of a new season which includes five straight point spread covers in the month of August. This is a dangerous opening contest on the road for this Arizona team. Expect a close game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-19 |
Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 |
|
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 5 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) kicks off their season looking to improve on a 7-6 campaign last year that concluded with a 35-3 loss to Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl. Florida (0-0) ended last year on a high note with a 41-15 blowout victory over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field in Orlando, Florida at Camping World Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: The Gators come off a strong final impression from last season with their high profile victory over Michigan on New Year’s Day — but that result probably inflates their value for this opening contest. The Wolverines saw a number of their best players sit out that game to protect their potential draft value including two future first-round NFL picks in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush. And, frankly, Michigan was simply uninspired to play that game after suffering a humiliating loss at Ohio State to close out their season and ruin their potential College Football playoff chances. The bowl committee then linked the Wolverines with a Florida team that they had crushed by a 41-7 score in the 2015 Citrus Bowl before soundly defeating them again to open the 2017 season in AT&T Stadium in Dallas by a 33-17 score. For head coach Dan Mullen, it was easy to motivate his team to pull the upset over Michigan as a measuring stick for the growth of the program in his first year. The Gators return five starters on offense led by junior quarterback Feleipe Franks — but the biggest question mark for that unit is an offensive line that replaces four multi-year starters who had combined for 141 starts in their tenure. Outside of right tackle Jack Delance who is a former four-star recruit who transferred to Gainesville, Mullen has a crop of former three-star recruits who were previously relegated to backup roles before this season. This is a very difficult opening assignment against a stout Miami defense that once again likely sports one of the top ten defensive lines in the country. The Florida defense lost three players to the NFL. While they return eight starters, that unit has holes to fill at linebacker. Miami brings a renewed sense of optimism this season under first-year head coach Manny Diaz who was the defensive coordinator last season. Diaz accepted the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason before the Hurricanes accepted third-year head coach Mark Richt’s sudden “retirement” which compelled them to reach out to Diaz to wiggle out of his deal with the Owls and return to South Beach as the lead man. Diaz returns six starters from his defense that was 4th in the nation by holding opponents to just 278.9 total YPG. The offense was the bigger problem for the Hurricanes under Richt. Last year, Miami endured a four-game stretch where they failed to eclipse 21 points. Diaz addressed that issue by poaching Dan Enos who was Alabama’s quarterback coach last season (after first agreeing to join the offensive coaching staff at Michigan). The former Central Michigan head coach will install a “spread coast” offense that should be more dynamic. Diaz has also broken from the past by naming redshirt freshman Jarren Williams his starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB must have impressed in fall camp because he had stiff competition from returning starter in N’Kosi Perry and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell who was likely the incumbent quarterback in Columbus this year before the Buckeyes acquired Justin Fields in his transfer from Georgia. Williams has talent at his disposal at the skill positions that Enos’ new offense is designed to get into space.
FINAL TAKE: This Miami team suffered five net upset losses last season as they were a program that expected to find ways to lose games given the quarterback struggles of Perry and the graduated Malik Rosier. The slate is now clean — and this is a great opportunity to hit the ground running by pulling the upset against a high-profile in-state rival in the first meeting between these blue blood programs since 2013. The Gators benefitted from a +12 net turnover margin last year which was tied for 7th best in the nation. But on a neutral field in what will be very hot temperatures, their offensive line will be severely challenged by a tough defensive line that can rotate plenty of bodies. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and the underdog has also covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two rivals. 10* CFB Miami (FL)-Florida ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson +6 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
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100 |
50 h 28 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Back in August, my Best Bet to win the National Championship was on Clemson because I preferred the value in their future odds in the 4:1 to 5:1 range as more appetizing than Alabama’s odds in the 2:1 to 3:1 range. With this final pairing set, I have observed some pundits claim that there is little value in Clemson getting +4.5 to +6 or so points. Say what? The Tigers lost the first playoff meeting between these two teams in 2016 by a 45-40 score before upsetting the Tide by a 35-31 score in the second meeting the next year. Nick Saban then had a month to prepare for last year's third showdown which Bama won by a 24-6 score — and that game exposed the limitations of Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. It is with this fourth chapter in mind that Dabo Swinney made the difficult decision to bench an effective Bryant this season for freshman Trevor Lawrence. In hindsight, that move looks brilliant as it jumpstarted the Tigers offense who they closed the season ranked 4th in the nation by scoring 44.3 PPG while ranking above Bama at 3rd in the FBS by averaging 530.4 total YPG. Lawrence looked great in decimating a good Notre Dame defense by completing 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards while tossing three touchdown passes. He now faces a vulnerable Crimson Tide secondary that has surrendered 308 and 301 passing yards to Oklahoma and Georgia in their last two games. The Alabama defensive backfield was an initial concern for me this season considering that they replaced their top four starters along with their top six on the depth chart. It is more difficult to repeat as champions since it is challenging to muster the same level of energy and urgency as that which drove the team in their first triumph over the proverbial mountain. And I see red flags when defending champions start losing focus by getting chippy with trash talk and cheap shots — and that is exactly what happened to Alabama when they blew their point spread cover against the Sooners. Rather than tactics of intimidation, I fount it indicated a lack of confidence — or, perhaps it displayed chemistry issues for a group with national championship or bust expectations that has played all season with a divided locker room over their two quarterbacks? Something seems off — and now they will face a program that has reached their level over the last four seasons. That is not a good sign for the Crimson Tide who have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by less than 7 points. Clemson has notched 54 victories over the last four seasons while perhaps being more talented than the team that won the 2016 National Championship. Even without Dexter Lawrence with his PED suspension, this could be their best defense under star defensive coordinator Brent Venables. This group ranks above Bama in all major defensive categories for what that is worth. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 bowl games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games as the underdog while winning six of those games straight-up.
FINAL TAKE: I lean to Clemson to win this game outright given the lingering chemistry/cohesion issues with Alabama that reared its ugly head in the Semifinals along with the motivational edge this team has in revenge against a reigning champion that might be just a little less hungry this time around. But please take as many points as you can for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB National Championship A-List Special with Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
Texas +13.5 v. Georgia |
Top |
28-21 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
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At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia fancies themselves as an elite program despite rarely winning a big game since Hershel Walker led them to a national championship just before Ronald Reagan took office as President of the United States. The Bulldogs feel they were robbed out of being one of the top four teams in the country tapped to play in the College Football Playoffs despite blowing a 28-14 lead to the Crimson Tide and despite a 20-point loss to LSU (and playing a weakling non-conference schedule). Georgia are worse than blue bloods because they think they have earned the privileges of the elite without putting in any of the work to garner requisite achievements. If only the Bulldogs could rely on nepotism to get into the playoffs! This is all to say that I expect Georgia to be over-confident in this matchup as they will likely expect the Longhorns to faint at the sight of them taking the field. Star cornerback DeAndre Baker might have set the tone for this team when he decided to bypass this game to stay healthy for the upcoming NFL draft. His absence does leave the Bulldogs secondary vulnerable to Texas’ pair of big wide receivers in Collin Johnson (6’6) and Jordan Humphrey (6’4) who combined to accumulate 1964 receiving yards with 16 combined touchdowns. Georgia also displayed some issues in their run defense against the better teams on their schedule as they allowed Alabama, Auburn, and LSU to rush for over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs allowed 25.2 PPG when away from home which is almost a touchdown more than their season average. Georgia got into some high-scoring affairs down the stretch of the season with at least 63 combined points scored in each of their last three games. That is not exactly the style of play that Kirby Smart likes to nurture as a defensive-minded head coach — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Quarterback Jake Fromm completed 25 of 39 passes for 301 yards in their loss to Alabama — and Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Their sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger played well in defeat by completing 23 of 36 passes for 349 yards while adding another 42 rushing yards and accounting for four overall touchdowns in their loss to the Sooners. The Longhorns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Ehlinger has done a very good job of protecting the football as he threw 25 TD passes while tossing only five interceptions with eleven games this season where he did not throw an interception. But Texas did surrender 379 passing yards to Oklahoma in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 19 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last game. This Texas defense has steadily improved as they held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Longhorns play well in these big games under head coach Tom Herman as they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 62 point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five games played on a neutral field as the dog.
FINAL TAKE: Herman has certainly thrived in these underdog situations in his head coaching tenure at Houston and now in Austin, Texas. His teams are 12-3 ATS in their fifteen games as an underdog with Herman leading his team to the upset victory in ten of these contests. Texas certainly has more to prove in this game with a high-profile win in this bowl game doing wonders for their psyche and recruiting profile moving forward — while Georgia still complains that they would have beaten Notre Dame and Oklahoma last Saturday. Expect a close game. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
Washington +7.5 v. Ohio State |
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23-28 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
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At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (275) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won four straight games after they defeated Utah by a 10-3 score back on November 30th in the Pac-12 Championship Game where they were 4.5-point favorites. Ohio State (12-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st by a 45-24 score as a 16.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a victory by no more than a touchdown against a Pac-12 rival. The Huskies dominated the Utes in that game by limiting them to just 188 yards of offense while out-gaining them by +118 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards. The Huskies are one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they hold their opponents to just 15.4 PPG which is 4th best in the nation while also holding these foes to only 301.8 total YPG which is 10th best in the country. This defense travels as they only allow 16.0 PPG when on the road along with just 307.0 total YPG. And in their last three contests, Washington is allowing only 13.7 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. But the Huskies offense has held them back this season — they are scoring only 20.4 PPG when away from home while averaging just 381.0 total YPG which is over 30 YPG less than their season average. Washington entered the year with high expectations — they were my Top Underlay Bet regarding future wagers to win the National Championship. Their opening game 5-point loss in Atlanta to Auburn placed those plays aspirations in jeopardy right away — but this is still a team that was three plays away from being undefeated this season with their other two losses occurring by just 3 and 2 points. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a Big Ten rival. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after winning at least five games in a row. And while Ohio State has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the spread in three of their last four. The Buckeyes have an explosive offense but the defense has underachieved all season by allowing 400.3 total YPG which ranks 68th in the nation. It was even worse away from the Horseshoe for this team as they surrendered 465.5 total YPG when playing on the road. Too often, the four and five-star players did not respond to coaching by committing fundamental blunders when it comes to assignment football. Ohio State gave up 38.0 PPG over their last three games. The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: This will be Urban Meyer’s last game coaching the Buckeyes with him retiring after this game. While there are certainly sentiments inside the program that would love to have him go out a winner, wasn’t there a similar motivation to redeem Meyer after the scandals in the fall that triggered his three-game suspension? I find that analysis overplayed and likely accounted for in the point spread where they are laying around 7 points. This game presents the Washington football team the opportunity to earn another signature win after losses to Alabama in the College Playoff two years ago before their loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl last season and their opening week loss to Auburn this year. 10* CFB Washington-Ohio State ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (275) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
LSU -7 v. Central Florida |
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40-32 |
Win
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100 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (273) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has once again feasted on non-Power Five Conference competition this season. While the Knights put up Top-Five offensive numbers this season, they only faced one team ranked in the top-25 statistical defenses in the nation — and that was a Cincinnati team that surrendered 31 points to a Virginia Tech team that few would describe as an offensive dynamo this season. On paper, the Knights have a strong defense that ranked 25th in the nation by allowing only 21.3 PPG. But their defense also ranked 83rd in the FBS by allowing 423.6 total YPG. The huge weakness of this UCF defense is their run defense as they ranked 117th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 227.4 rushing YPG. Lazy observers might attribute that terrible number on them playing the strong rushing attack of Memphis twice who gashed them for 280 and then 401 yards in their two meetings. OK … and I suppose we get to throw out the 374 rushing yards Navy gouged them for because they run the run-dominant spread triple option. Well, what is the excuse for the 320 rushing yards Florida Atlantic racked up against them? Or the 252 rushing yards accumulated by Cincinnati? Or the 226 rushing yards that Temple produced? Or the 220 yards that the offensive juggernaut of UConn managed to compile? Or South Florida’s 196 rushing yards? LSU’s running back Nick Brossette should have a big day against the Knights’ defensive line that was run over by the smaller offensive line and less talented tailbacks. The reason that UCF was able to survive from their bend but not break defense was in large part due to some fortunate bounces with turnovers as they are 3rd in the nation by a +1.17 net turnover margin. Unfortunately for the Knights, outlier turnovers margins like that are rarely sustainable — and they do not face a friendly competitor this afternoon when it comes to giving the ball away. LSU averages 0.9 turnovers per game this season — and UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against opponents who do not turn the ball over more than 1.0 times per game. On offense, Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. UCF has averaged 7.76 and 6.80 Yards-Per-Play over their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. LSU should be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their infuriating seven overtime loss to Texas A&M to end their season. They now face the intriguing fashion of attempting to expose the weaknesses of this upstart Group of Five Conference opponent has not lost a game in two seasons. Auburn appeared to be unmotivated by this challenge last season in the Peach Bowl as they were upset by 34-27 score. If that does not get the Tigers’ attention, I think they have the perfect head coach for this situation in Ed Orgeron who is a motivator and well-liked by his players — and his humble background should ensure he does not take this UCF team lightly. LSU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Furthermore, LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on grass. And in their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points, the Tigers have covered the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: LSU hammered Georgia by 20 points — so they have the talent still that can hang with the very best teams in College Football. Central Florida’s twenty-five game winning streak has seen more than its share of good bounces and beats. I think the luck finally runs out against an LSU team coached by an individual who will not let them make the mistakes Auburn did last year. 10* CFB LSU-Central Florida ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (273) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
Kentucky +5.5 v. Penn State |
|
27-24 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (271) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (272). Kentucky (9-3) has won two straight games with their 56-10 victory at Louisville as a 17-point favorite to close out their regular season back on November 24th. Penn State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 38-3 victory against Maryland back on November 24th as a 12-point favorite. These two teams meet in Orlando for the Citrus Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games away from home after a game where they did not allow more than 6 points. And while the Nittany Lions have not allowed more than 269 total yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight games. Penn State has a 4-1 record on the road this year but they are only out-gaining these opponents by +0.8 net YPG. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 meetings with a team from the SEC. Run defense is an area of concern for this team as they allowed their opponents to rush for 168.4 rushing YPG. Enter running back Benny Snell and this Kentucky offense that ranked 35th in the nation by averaging 201.3 rushing YPG. The Wildcats gobbled 300 rushing yards in their victory over the Cardinals in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 17 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Wildcats dominated that game with Louisville as they out-gained them by +296 net yards which is a good sign for them now as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. This Kentucky team plays outstanding defense as they ranked 7th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 16.3 PPG — and they also ranked 21st in the FBS by allowing only 332.2 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Wildcats outscored their five opponents on the road by +7.0 PPG. This stout defense should keep them in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has lost two bowl games in a row in the last two seasons after losing a heartbreaker to Northwestern by a 24-23 score in last year’s Music City Bowl. With star linebacker Josh Allen shunning the en vogue trend of NFL-caliber players skipping this game to “prepare” for the NFL draft, look for his teammates to rally around him as they look to finally win a bowl game in the six-year tenure of head coach Mike Stoops. 10* CFB Kentucky-Penn State ABC-TV Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (271) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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