Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - I'm not going to lie, this wager for us has been brewing since October 28th when these two teams met in Toronto and we bet the Raptors +2.5 points at home over the Cavs. Going into that game, the Raptors had all summer to stew after losing to the Cavs in the playoffs last year, and looked like a perfect opportunity to wager on the Raps as a home dog. But Cleveland won by 3-points and then proceeded to win the next two regular season meetings, before losing at the end of the season in a meaningless game at home (evidence it was meaningless as the Raptors were favored by 3 points on the road). Now the Cavs are laying a reasonable number at home considering the Raptors were just a 2-point dog in Milwaukee who is far worse than Cleveland. The Cavaliers were tied with the Spurs during the regular season with the 4th best point differential in the NBA at home of +8.1PPG. They are 75-19 SU at home the past two seasons and have a 15-10 ATS record at home in the playoffs the last two years. Since 2013 the Raptors have a playoff record of 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) which is the second worst percentage in the NBA over that span of time. The mental aspect of this game clearly favors the Cavaliers and we are betting this game plays out much like last year's playoff home games for the Cavs when they beat Toronto on this court by 31, 19 and 38 points. When we 'tweak' a couple important variables within our math model it suggests a double digit win by Cleveland. Lay it! |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - PLAY ON San Antonio -3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET We love this wager on the San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies, Game 4 Saturday, 8PM ET. The Spurs won the first two games of the series then played poorly in Game 3 and lost to the Grizzlies by 11-points. Memphis played great in Game 3 but the margin wasn’t insurmountable for the Spurs on an off day. The Grizzlies shot nearly 51% as a team, 41% from the 3-point line, 90% from the FT line and only had 5 turnovers. We like when elite teams are coming off a bad loss and with a marginal spread here this is an easy call to lay the points with the visitor. The Spurs road record of 31-11 SU this year is better than the Grizzlies 25-17 SU record. San Antonio had an average road point differential of +6.2PPG which is better than all but 6 teams HOME differentials in the entire league. That’s amazing when you really think about it! In comparison, the Grizzlies home differential was +2.1PPG which is 21st worst in the entire league. San Antonio was 16-5 SU this season when coming off a loss and an INCREDIBLE 95-30 SU (76%) off a beat since 2012. With this line being as low as it is we are basically just asking them to win this game outright and odds are when they win it will be by more than 4-points. Memphis lost a key defensive cog with the injury to Tony Allen and that’s one less defender to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Easy call here for a wager on Coach Popp and the Spurs to bounce back with a win over a mediocre Memphis team. Lay it! |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Toronto Raptors. The natural shift in this line has this number right where it should be but we felt the Bucks would be a few points higher than it is. Milwaukee outplayed the Raptors in both games in our opinion and had two 3’s rim out late in Game 2 which would have given them a lead, and could have altered that outcome putting them up 2-0 in the series. The Bucks shot just 41.4% in Game 2 after hitting 44.7% in Game 1 and now that they are back home, expect those shooting percentages to go up. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.9% at home (6th best in the NBA), and over 37% (13th) from beyond the arc. The Bucks closed the regular season out by winning 8 of their last ten home games which included a 7-point win against this same Raptors team as a 1-point favorite. Since 2013 the Raptors have the lowest ATS winning percentage in the NBA at 28.1% (9-23-1 ATS record) so it’s not like we are playing against a franchise with a solid recent history of winning in the post season. Not to mention, one of the Raptors key players, Kyle Lowry is not known as a clutch player in the postseason. Even though he made the game winner the other night, Lowry has a career playoff shooting percentage of just .381% which is well below his season averages. The Bucks were 7-3 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of -2.5-points or less and we feel they take care of business at home in Game #3. |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @TORONTO RAPTORS (-7) over Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30PM ET - We are playing on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points (-7) over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 60-22 SU at home last 2 seasons with an average point differential of 7.1PPG which is the 5th best differential in the entire NBA the past two years. They have a veteran team that is healthy right now and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. We feel the Lowry injury was a blessing for the Raptors how had the opportunity to develop some other players and build chemistry. As far as the season series is concerned, the Raptors won 3 of 4 meetings with Bucks this year and both home games were blowouts by 16 and 22 points. The young Bucks have a bright future and may win a few games in this series, just not the opener on the road. On the year the Bucks had a negative road differential of -2.9PPG which is exactly league average. Milwaukee was out-shot and out-rebounded in both games in Toronto and lost by a combined 38 total points AND that was with starter Jabari Parker in the lineup who scored 48 points in those 2 contests. Raps 5-1 ATS last six meetings and chalk has covered 21 of the last 29 between these two teams. Any way we slice it comes up Toronto in Game 1. |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs -2 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: Dallas Mavericks (-2) over Denver Nuggets, 8:35PM ET - The Denver Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion the other night at home when Russell Westbrook hit a 26-foot jumper at the buzzer to beat Denver. It's only human nature to let down here after that emotional beat. With literally nothing to play for we don't expect a focused Nuggets team to put up much of a fight here. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss and will be playing their final home game of the season and will want to reward their loyal followers with a good showing. Sure, the Mavs are just 1-4 SU their last five home games but take a look at who they played: Spurs, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Warriors. Those are five of the best teams in the NBA (excluding OKC who is good but not great). The Nuggets were recently a 2-point home favorite over the Mavs which means this line should be much higher than it currently is. The Mavs as a low chalk have been great this year with a 7-1 ATS mark when laying 3.5 or less points. Nuggets have not covered a game in Dallas in 5 straight tries! Given the circumstances this sets up to be an EASY win for Dallas! |
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04-04-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -6 | Top | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz (-6) over Portland Trailblazers, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a big game for both teams as the Jazz are fighting for the 4th spot in the West and a first round home series versus the Clippers. Portland on the other hand is fighting for the 8th and final spot in the West. At first glance this looks like a tough call but really it's not. We consider the Jazz one of the 8 best teams in the league and this is a great spot to play on them considering they are off a loss in San Antonio their last game out. Utah is 5-1 SU their last six when playing at home off a loss and all five of those victories came by 6 or more points. The Jazz are 26-12 SU at home this season with the 7th best home differential in the NBA of +6PPG. Portland is 16-24 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -3.8PPG. They have been good when playing without rest this year, but a key injury to starting center Jusuf Nurkic, has really hurt their depth and front court presence. Last night in Minny, Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Blazers bigs with a 34-point, 12 rebound night. Jazz center Rudy Gobert could put up similar numbers tonight. The home team has been the bet in this series as they hold a 5-0 ATS record and four of the five wins by the home team have been blowouts. Play on the Jazz! |
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03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors (-5.5) over Indiana Pacers. There really isn't a reason to expect the Pacers to suddenly turn around their road fortunes tonight in Toronto against a Raptors team that is really good on their home floor. Toronto is 25-13 SU on their home court this year with the 6th best average point differential in the NBA of +7.7PPG. By comparison, Indiana is just 11-26 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 8th worst in the league. The Pacers have lost 6 straight road games by an average of 13PPG, so as I said before, why would they do a 180 tonight and play well away from home? Both teams have plenty to play for as the Raptors are looking to move up in the East, while the Pacers are trying to hold on to a playoff spot. We do like the fact the Raptors are off a home loss here as they have covered 5 of their last six off a loss anyplace. They have back to back home losses just once this season and that came to a San Antonio Spurs team that is one of the best teams in the league. Toronto recently beat the Pacers 116-91 and dominated the boards 51-33. Expect much of the same tonight. |
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03-14-17 | Pistons v. Cavs -7 | Top | 96-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #532 @Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - At first glance it looks like the Pistons plus the points would be the bet here but closer inspection tells us differently. The Cavs (and LeBron) are clearly a 'play on' team given the circumstances and you have to pick and choose your spots carefully considering they're over-valued by the oddsmakers on most occasions. Tonight the Cavs are on NBA TV which normally brings out the best of ego driven LBJ. Plus, these two teams just met in Detroit with the Pistons winning 106-101 as a +4.5-point underdog. Clearly, based on the line on that game the Cavs should be a much bigger favorite here. Cleveland is returning home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 and prior to that they lost at home to the Heat. All those factors will have the Cavs on top of their game tonight against a poor traveling Pistons team (11-21 SU on the road.) Cleveland is 26-7 SU at home and have the 4th best point differential of +8.9PPG at home in the NBA. The last time these two teams met here the Cavs won by 23. Expect another big win tonight given the circumstances. |
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03-05-17 | Celtics -6 v. Suns | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #827 Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Phoenix Suns, 5PM ET - We're going to lay the points with Boston on the road over Phoenix. The Suns have won two straight home games but in both cases (OKC and Charlotte) they caught their opponents in bad scheduling situation. Today they get a Boston team that is the second best team in the East and playing well and has the 5th best road differential in the NBA at +1.9PPG (only 5 teams have a positive road DIFF on the road). On the flip side the Suns are off a home win and have been horrible in this situation with a 4-16 SU record off a win, 1-9 SU at home. Phoenix also has the 4th worst home differential in the NBA at minus -2.3PPG. Boston has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road off a win and should get a double digit win here. |
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02-26-17 | Jazz v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 102-92 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Washington Wizards (-1.5) over Utah Jazz, 5PM ET – Washington is in a great spot here as they are off an upset loss to Philly and should bounce back in a big way at home (10-2 SU this year off a loss and playing at home). Utah on the other hand is off a road win. Washington has been near unbeatable at home with wins in 19 of their last 20 and the lone L came against the East leading Cavaliers. The Wiz have an average home point differential of +6PPG which is one of the better numbers in the league. Utah has been solid on the road all season long with a +2PPG differential but they are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 away from home. Washington has covered 4 of their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record and have covered 7 of their last 9 off a loss. Play Washington today! |
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02-24-17 | Nets +10 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ASA #857 Brooklyn Nets (+10) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - The Nuggets are off a game last night in Sacramento which resulted in a 16-point road loss. They shot 44% for game which isn’t horrible but they didn’t play much defense, allowing the Kings to hit 52% from the field, 50% from the beyond the arc. Denver is just 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS) when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 9PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 12 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-11 SU & ATS in those games. Brooklyn is playing better even though it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins but they have covered 3 of their last five games and have a negative differential of -6PPG which is nearly 3-points better than their season differential. Of their last 9 losses, none have come by more than 9-points or tonight’s spread. We’re not sure how Denver is a favorite of this size when their defense is allowing over 51% shooting their last five games and even the All-Star break didn’t fix that. Brooklyn clearly isn’t a great defensive team but the Nuggets are last in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.134 points per possession. In the lone meeting this season the Nets did win at home by 5-points which is 6th straight time they’ve beaten Denver. Grab the points with Brooklyn. |
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02-15-17 | Knicks v. Thunder -7 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER (-7) over NY Knicks, 9:30PM ET - Tonight we love the opportunity to play against a bad team (NY Knicks) off a big upset win, playing on the road, against a superior team (OKC) which is off a loss. New York beat the San Antonio Spurs at home on Sunday which makes them just 7-20 SU their last 27 games and puts them in a bet against situation, as they are 1-6 ATS their last seven when off a win. New York is just 9-18 SU on the road this season and they have an average point differential of minus -5.1PPG which ranks in the bottom 12 teams in the league. On the flip side the Thunder are off a blowout loss (7-3-1 ATS at home off a loss) in Washington where the team missed 24 consecutive shots, a NBA record. Russell Westbrook struggled with just 17 points but a lot of the Thunders poor play was the fact they were coming off a huge game versus Golden State. The Thunder are 19-8 SU at home this year, 13-4 their last seventeen. OKC has also covered 11 of fourteen at home against sub .500 teams which tells us they win by larger margins. Easy call with OKC at home tonight over the NY Knicks. |
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02-13-17 | Thunder v. Wizards -5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET - We're going to fade OKC here and play on a hot Washington team at home. The Thunder are very good at home but not nearly as good when on the road with a 12-16 SU record. In fact, the Thunder have a -5.5 average point differential away from home with is in the bottom third of the NBA. Washington on the other hand is in the top 10 in home point differential at +5.5PPGand they stand 23-7 SU on their home court. The Wiz are 18-1 SU their last 19 at home and the lone loss was in OT to the Cavaliers and only 2 of those home wins were by less than 5-points. Shooting will play a major role tonight as OKC shoots just 43.6% on the road this season compared to Washington who hits nearly 49% at home. The Thunder are coming off a couple huge emotional games after beating Cleveland at home then losing to the Warriors on Saturday so they should be a little flat on the road in Washington. OKC is just 5-7 ATS on the road this year off a loss so that's not a concern for us here. Wizard come into tonight on 2 days rest and have covered 4 of their last five in that scheduling situation, plus they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 at home. Lay it! |
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02-12-17 | Pelicans v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS (-3.5) over New Orleans Pelicans - We like the Sacramento Kings at home over the visiting New Orleans Pelicans and expect a double digit win by the host. New Orleans is 7-18 SU on the road this season with a negative point differential of -5.3PPG which is in the bottom half of the league. So much of what the Pelicans do is reliant on center Anthony Davis who is coming off a 42 point, 13 rebound and 7 assist game against Minnesota the other night but he’ll have his hands full tonight with fellow Kentuckian DeMarcus Cousins. Prior to their road win the other night in Minnesota the Pelicans had lost 5 straight away from home and three of those losses were by 7+ points. New Orleans is also just 7-13 SU when coming off a win this season and have failed to cover 5 straight games in that role. Sacramento is 11-15 SU at home which isn’t great but they’ve won 3 of their last four at home and all 3 wins came against quality teams (Atlanta, Boston and Golden State). Cousins is good when he’s motivated as he will be today facing Davis. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Pelicans on this floor by 8 as a 6-point chalk. Lay it again! |
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02-11-17 | Magic v. Mavs -6 | Top | 80-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
514 Dallas Mavericks (-6) over Orlando Magic, 9PM ET - We like the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic. These two teams are trending in opposite directions as the Mavericks got off to a slow start to the season but have now won 10 of their last 15 games. Included in that streak is a 5-1 run their last six home games with all of those victories coming by more than today's spread. Orlando on the other hand is in a funk to say the least with a 4-15 SU record their last 19 games. Included in that run is a 2-9 SU road record and the majority of those road defeats were in blowout fashion. Looking at differentials we find the Mavs have an average point differential of +1PPG their last five games while the Magic are a negative -10.8PPG their last five. Orlando has the 4th worst road point differential at -7PPG and rank near the bottom of the league in road offensive efficiency and DEFF. The Mavs have covered 8 straight at home and get a double digit win again today! |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 over Utah Jazz, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we play on the Dallas Mavericks at home plus the points over the Utah Jazz. Utah is off a blowout win last night in New Orleans and are facing a rested Mavs team off a pair of losses including a home loss to the Blazers most recently. When playing without rest the Jazz are 7-5 SU on the year but they are just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight in that scheduling situation. Prior to their two game losing streak the Mavericks had won 6 of eight games and one of those losses was at home against the Jazz by 5-points in OT. Dallas is 8-9 SU at home off a loss this year but they've covered 7 o their last nine in that situation and 7 straight home covers overall in any role. The dog is also 4-1 last five meetings and Dallas has dominated the Jazz on this court for years. Dallas is playing much better of late and we expect a home win here by the Mavs. |
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02-08-17 | Suns +9 v. Grizzlies | Top | 91-110 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Phoenix Suns (+9) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz are in an unfamiliar role tonight as a 9-point chalk which is the largest pointspread they've been favored by all season long. Memphis has some other scheduling dynamics going against them here as they are off a huge win over the Spurs and have Golden State next on the schedule. Not to mention they recently beat the Suns by 19 in Phoenix. I watched that game live the Grizzlies hit a franchise record 16 3-pointers while making 57% from beyond the arc. Don't expect a repeat performance as the Grizzlies are the 21st worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Memphis has a below average home point differential in the NBA at +2.4PPG and now they're being asked to cover near double digits in this scheduling situation? No way! Phoenix hasn't been bad on the road lately (4 straight covers) with a 5-point loss at New Orleans, 2-point win at Sacramento, 7-point loss at Denver and a pair of wins in Toronto and New York. The Suns will be focused here after their embarrassing loss to Memphis just a few days ago. Grab the points. |
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02-06-17 | Thunder v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 90-93 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We successfully played on the OKC Thunder yesterday at home in their win over Portland but today we will turn around and play against them. From a scheduling standpoint, this is a bad spot for the Thunder having just played at home yesterday while the Pacers were at home resting. This is also the Thunder’s 3rd game in a four-day span. OKC has been great at home this season but haven’t played as well on the road where they are 12-15 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.6PPG which is the bottom half of the league in that category. When playing without rest the Thunder are 3-7 SU this year with a differential average of -5PPG. On the flip side the Pacers are playing lights out right now and are on a 6-game winning streak, including 3 straight at home. Indiana is 19-6 SU at home this year, 8-1 their last 9 and have the 10th best home point differential in the NBA of +5.8PPG. After a slow start and dealing with several key injuries the Pacers are finally living up to expectations and this is a perfect spot to play on them at home laying a marginal number. |
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02-05-17 | Blazers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 3PM ET - Play on the OKC Thunder minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers are not a good road team where they are just 8-18 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.9PPG which is 8th worst in the NBA. The Blazers are 1-3 SU their last four road games and two of those defeats were at Charlotte and Philadelphia who are not as good as the Thunder team they’ll face today. OKC is clearly not as good as they were last season but they still enjoy a 17-7 SU home record this season with an average point differential of +6.7PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Thunder are even better at home when it comes to the West, having won 13 of 15 this season and 7 straight by an average of 14PPG. The Thunder have covered 4 of the last five meetings here against the Blazers and with Portland’s guard Damian Lillard struggling with his shooting stroke (under 40% last 5 from field, 32% from beyond the arc) right now this is a perfect spot to fade the Blazers and play on the Thunder. OKC by double digits! |
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02-03-17 | Bulls v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
PLAY ON: HOUSTON ROCKETS (-6.5) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We like the Houston Rockets at home over the Chicago Bulls tonight. Much has been made about the Bulls poor team chemistry right now with Jimmy Butler, D-Wade and Rajon Rondo and this is certainly a team with some problems behind the scenes. Granted they have won two straight game but a lot has to do with a favorable schedule as they beat the 76ers at home then won in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Bulls shot an uncharacteristic 60% from the field in that game which was WELL above their season average of just 43.9% which is 3rd worst in the NBA. Chicago also caught the Thunder off of 2 HUGE games against the Cavaliers and Spurs on the road and were playing the 2nd night of a back to back. On the flip side the Rockets should have some extra motivation here as they are coming off an upset loss at home last night to the Atlanta Hawks. Houston is the 6th best shooting team in the NBA at 46.5% but last night they struggled from the field hitting just 37.6% of their shots against a Hawks defense that is 8th in the NBA in opponents FG% against. The Bulls are 18th in that same defensive category. The Rockets have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.8PPG. Houston is 14-3 SU off a loss, 5-1 at home and they have won 11 of 12 games this season when playing without rest. In fact, the Rockets 11 wins when playing without rest have come by an average of 13PPG. Lay the points! |
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02-01-17 | Pelicans v. Pistons -7 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS (-7) over New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35PM ET - We successfully played on the Pelicans last night in Toronto but must go against them here in Detroit tonight. We really felt the Pistons would snap out of their mid-season slump a few games back when they came off a 4-day break but it didn’t happen as they’ve lost 2 straight since then and 3 in a row. Their last two losses came against a red-hot Miami team and at the Boston Celtics. Now Detroit gets to host a Pelicans team off an overtime road loss in Toronto last night and if there is a time they’ll get a big win, it’s tonight. New Orleans just 6-16 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -5.2PPG which is nearly what tonight’s spread is. Detroit is 12-10 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +3.5PPG which is in the top half of the league. The Pistons are 6-5 SU & ATS at home when coming off a loss with an average win margin of 5PPG while the Pelicans are just 3-7 ATS when playing without rest with an average loss margin over 5PPG. New Orleans really struggle shooting and scoring on the road as they hit just 43% from the field which ties into their worst road offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Given the circumstances for the Pistons we expect them to get a double-digit home win here. |
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01-31-17 | Thunder v. Spurs -9 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-9) over OKC Thunder, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we will side with the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the visiting OKC Thunder. On Sunday we gave 8.5 points with Cleveland at home over the Thunder so laying 1 more point here makes sense. Especially considering the situation with the Spurs off an embarrassing home loss to the Mavericks. The Spurs are 77-54 (59%) ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a loss which is the 2nd best overall record in the NBA. Since the start of last season they have a 17-11 ATS record or 61% which is the best record in the league over that span of time. This season the Spurs have been especially nasty at home off a loss with a 5-2 record but those 5 wins have come by an average of 24PPG and includes 3 wins by 28+ points. OKC is going to suffer the effects of the loss of Enes Kanter for some games to come and can't keep pace with a much deeper San Antonio team that can overcome the loss of Gasol. The Thunder have recently played three road games against similar foes to the Spurs and lost by 16 in Cleveland, 21 in Golden State an22 at the LA Clippers. We don't use 'revenge' in the NBA very often but the Thunder did eliminate the Spurs from the playoffs last year and this is their first meeting this season. Since the start of last season the Spurs have a home point differential of +11.3PPG while the Thunder are in the bottom third of the league in road differential (since Durant left) at -5.3PPG. It seems like a big number but in reality it's not. Lay it! |
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01-27-17 | Hornets -1 v. Knicks | Top | 107-110 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-1) over @NY Knicks, 7:35PM ET - Today we play on the Charlotte Hornets over the NY Knicks. New York has plenty of distractions right now as trade rumors for Melo heat up, and this comes shortly after the D-Rose issue. The Knicks are just 4-14 SU their last 18 games and have lost 7 of their last 8 at home. Charlotte is off a disappointing home loss to the Warriors, in which they actually led going into the final stanza. Prior to that game they lost to a red hot Wizards team and now step way down in class against the Knicks tonight. The Hornets are just 8-14 SU away from home BUT they have an average point differential of just -1.1 PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. The Knicks on the other hand are 12-11 SU at home but their average point differential is -.1PPG which is 22nd out of 30 teams. These two teams are very similar offensively averaging 1.082 points per possession which is right around the league average. Where these two clubs are drastically different is the defensive end of the court as the Knicks rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency while the Hornets are 6th best in the same category. The visitor has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and the last time they met on this floor the Hornets were 2-point favorites so we are getting additional value tonight. Take Charlotte! |
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01-24-17 | Jazz v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DENVER NUGGETS - Our best NBA play for the night is on the Denver Nuggets at home minus the points over the Utah Jazz. As far as scheduling is concerned the Nuggets are in a great spot here as they catch the Jazz off a HUGE division game last night versus Oklahoma City, and having to travel and play without rest. Not to mention they'll be in the higher altitude of Denver which magnifies the fatigue factor against Utah, AND they are playing their 4th game in just five days (teams are 4-9 SU in that situation this year). This will be the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams with the home team winning each game. Denver has won 3 straight home games but did suffer a loss in their last outing at Minnesota so they'll be focused here. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 52% their last five games and they'll find plenty of open looks against a tired Jazz team. Utah has played well this season but they are 0-6 ATS their last six away from home. We predict a double digit win by the home team here. |
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01-23-17 | Thunder +6 v. Jazz | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (+5.5) over @UTAH JAZZ, 9PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder plus the points over the host Utah Jazz. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they last played on Wednesday which means a full 4 days rest and practice time which is hard to come by in a busy NBA schedule. OKC is also coming off a pair of road losses at the Clippers and Warriors so they should be properly focused and motivated here. Utah also beat this Thunder team at home in mid-December by 20-points but OKC was off a game the night before in Portland and they ended up shooting just 36% from the field and allowed the Jazz to hit over 58%. What's significant about those shooting percentages is that the Thunder shoot nearly 46% on the season (12th best) while the Jazz shoot 46.6% which is 8th best but still not the 58% they made in the last meeting. So we expect the law of averages to even out in this game. These two teams are relatively close in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings but the Thunder have played the 8th hardest schedule in the NBA while the Jazz have played the 17th. With the added rest, revenge, schedule discrepancy and a return to normal shooting percentages we like OKC to get the cash easily in this one. |
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01-22-17 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA We will play on the Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) over the Denver Nuggets, 7PM ET. This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets who are off a big win last night in Denver over the LA Clippers and now have to travel to face a rested Timberwolves club. Denver has won 4 of their last five games but those W's came against a 22-21 Pacers team, 16-31 Lakers team, 18-27 Magic and a injury depleted Clippers team so we're hardly impressed. On the road the Nuggets have an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG and shoot less than 44% as a team. A big part of Denver's offense comes on the glass but that gets negated here against a Wolves team that has the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Another decisive advantage the Wolves have working for them is how bad the Nuggets defense is, ranking last in defensive efficiency ratings and 3rd to last in points allowed per game. Minnesota is 9-13 SU at home and have a positive differential of +2.4PPG which is right around the league average. They have won 3 straight at home over the Mavs, Rockets and Thunder and are playing better on their home court with 4 straight covers. There is also a small revenge factor here as the Nuggets beat the Wolves at home recently by just 2-points. Lay the points with Minnesota in this one! |
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01-21-17 | Blazers v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 127-123 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
We like Boston at home minus the points over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Portland is coming off a game last night and are playing their 4th straight road game in a 6-day span. On the flip side the Celtics have had a few days’ rest and have a clear scheduling advantage in this one. When playing without rest the Blazers are just 3-6 SU and ATS. The Blazers starting backcourt of Lillard and McCollum both logged over 35 minutes last night and they’ll have a tough time keeping up with the Celtics Isaiah Thomas who has been outstanding of late for Boston averaging nearly 35PPG his last 9 games. The Blazers have one of the worst road point differentials in the NBA at -6.3PPG and have not traveled well this season. Boston had won 7 straight games at home before suffering an upset loss to the Knicks in their last game. That works for us here as the Celtics are 12-4 SU off a loss this season, 7-1 at home. Five of Boston’s last 7 home wins have come by 9 or more points so we’re not intimated by the spread in this game. Lay the points! |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS - We like the Sacramento Kings at home tonight over the visiting Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are 6-1 their last seven games overall and off a home win over the Pelicans on Monday. Prior to that they played in London and were blown out by the Nuggets. With a closer look at the Pacers recent games we find they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and those 6 wins came against teams with a combined 99-155 record on the season. Indiana plays MUCH better at home than they do on the road which is a big part of our reasoning tonight. At home the Pacers have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA BUT on the road they have the 3rd worst at minus -7.7PPG. As far as the Kings are concerned tonight is a very big game for them as they are playing their last home game of a 7 game home stand and must go on the road after tonight. The Kings went just 1-5 SU in this recent stretch of games but they lost to: OKC, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers and Heat. And all of those games were relatively close losses. Even with the Heat included in that stretch those teams have a combined record of 130-79. In fact, the Kings have played the leagues 9th hardest schedule while the Pacers have played the 27th easiest. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a favorite less than 3.5 points while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in that same price range as a dog. Take Sacramento here! |
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01-14-17 | 76ers v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS - This is going to be a shorter than usual analysis as we are in a time crunch on Saturday with a deep college card and the NFL games. We normally wouldn't lay this many points with Washington but the situation is warranted. The Wizards are off a loss at Boston which will have them focused for the 76ers tonight. Not to mention the 76ers have won 3 straight so the Wiz won't take them for granted. Philly has had problems playing without rest this season and a lot of that is from a minutes restriction on their best overall player Joel Embiid who will not play today. Philly is 1-6 SU this year when playing the second night of a back-to-back with an average loss margin of 13PPG. Washington on the other hand is rested having last played January 11th. Washington was recently a -11.5 point home favorite over Chicago who is much better than Philly so we're not intimidated by the spread today. The Wiz have covered 7 of their last eight at home over teams with sub .500 record. Lay the points with Washington! |
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01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
#705 Boston Celtics (+2.5) over Atlanta Hawks, 8PM ET - Today we are going to play on the Boston Celtics plus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta comes into this game red hot and on an 7 game winning streak! Wait what? Yep, we're playing against the Hawks and here's why. Yes, the Hawks have won 7 straight but only ONE of those wins game against a team with a winning record and that was home against the Spurs in OT. The other 6 wins came against teams with a combined winning record of 88-150 so we're really NOT impressed with Atlanta's current run. Not to mention the Hawks are 10-7 SU at home but have an average point differential of just +.4PPG which is 20th worst in the NBA. Now they face a Boston team that is 12-9 SU away from home this season with the 5th best road point differential of +1.9PPG and a team that has won 11 of their last 14 overall. The Celtics have dropped two straight road games but they came at Toronto and Cleveland who are the two best teams in the East right now. Prior to that the C's had won 4 straight away from home. We like Boston to get a win tonight on the road in Atlanta. |
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01-10-17 | Celtics v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS -4.5 OVER BOSTON CELTICS, TUES 7:35PM ET - There is a HUGE Atlantic Division showdown Tuesday night when the Raptors host the Celtics in Toronto. What a great spot to play on the Raptors, who at first look, seem to be struggling with a 2-5 record over their last seven games but scheduling has a lot to do with that. Toronto came off a 6 game road trip, played one game at home, then went to Chicago, then came home the following night only to lose to the red hot Rockets by 7-points. Toronto is 12-6 SU at home and has the 3rd best overall home point differential of +10.4PPG. Those numbers aren't a fluke as this same roster was 32-9 SU at home last year with an average point differential of +6.6PPG, 6th best in the NBA. The Raptors respond well when coming off a SU loss as they are 9-4 SU and ATS in that role this season. Boston has won 4 straight games but all of those were at home and now must travel to one of the toughest venues in the NBA. The Celtics have a 12-8 SU road record this year but a closer look shows they are just 1-5 SU their last six road games when playing a team with a current winning record and the lone win came in Memphis in OT. When playing a division opponent the Raptors are 15-6 ATS dating back to last year and they've cashed 4 of the last five meetings with Boston. With just 1 game separating these two teams in the Atlantic Division and the Raps coming off a pair of losses it's a perfect time to 'buy' Toronto at home! |
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01-06-17 | Knicks +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #509 NY Knicks (+5.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - It's not often that 'revenge' factors into NBA games but this is certainly one of them with New York traveling to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. These same two teams just met a few nights back in New York with the Bucks pulling out a 1-point win on a last second jumper by Bucks sensation Giannis Antetokounmpo. Hidden in that loss though is the fact the Knicks played great basketball for 75% of the game, led by as many as 16 points before a collapse in the fourth quarter. Despite the fact the Knicks were the home team they were outscored by 15 from the free throw line by Milwaukee but Melo picked up the slack for New York by scoring 30 points. Let's not forget the Knicks were without Kristaps Porzingis who is averaging 20PPG, 7.8RPG and 1.3 APG. Porzingis practiced yesterday and our reports say he's likely to play tonight. Even if he doesn't we like the Knicks plus the points. New York clearly has a talented roster but at times don't play up to their potential. The Knicks 5-1 ATS record their last six games against teams with winning records supports this theory. In this scenario we feel a focused, motivated team gets a solid cover here. The young Bucks have just 1 spread win their last five games following a SU win and we don't see them getting a cover here. |
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12-30-16 | 76ers +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 124-122 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #717 Philadelphia 76ers (+11) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - We are on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the double digit points at Denver on Friday evening. We were in the Philly papers yesterday and they basically came out and said last night's game in Utah was meaningless and they were focused on winning in Denver tonight. So they sat their best young player Joel Embiid and another starter Gerald Henderson. Both are expected in the lineup tonight and make the 76ers a vastly better ball club. The back to back nights shouldn't affect the Sixers too much tonight either as 10 players logged 14+ minutes last night. Other than last night the 76ers have been playing decently on the road where they've gone 2-4 SU their last six. Again, last night they lost by 17 points but in their previous 3 road losses they lost by 5, 7 and just 2 points. The 76ers road differentials this season are much improved over last season's even though they have just 2 wins away from home on the year. Denver is improving with wins in 5 of their last seven games but this isn't a familiar role for them laying double digits as it hasn't happened any other game this season. The largest number the Nuggets have been favored by all season is 8-points at home over Dallas and they won that game by 10-points. The Nuggets have won 2 straight and have a much bigger game on deck when they go to Golden State on Monday evening. Denver also has the 11th worst average point differential at home in the NBA and allow teams to hit over 46% of their shots on their home court. Philly will keep this close throughout and get their 8th straight cover on this floor. Grab the points. |
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12-26-16 | Pacers +2 v. Bulls | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
PLAY ON: INDIANA PACERS Today we play on the Indiana Pacers plus the points over the Chicago Bulls. Chicago is coming off a game yesterday in San Antonio and they haven't played well the second night of back to backs with three straight losses. While the Bulls dealing with a game yesterday and the distractions of the holiday, the Pacers are extremely well rested having last played Dec 22nd at home against the Celtics. Indiana is 20-6-2 ATS the last 28 times they've played with 3 or more days rest which is the case tonight. The Pacers don't have great efficiency or point differentials on the season but in their last five games their point differential is just -.8PPG while the Bulls have a negative point differential of -7.2PPG their last five. Bulls just 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall and Pacers have covered 7 of last ten in the series. Take Indiana and whatever points are available. |
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12-19-16 | Suns +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
PHOENIX SUNS +5.5 OVER MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES - Play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the host Minnesota Timberwolves. Thank you Vegas for continuing to make the Wolves over-valued and providing us with these moneymaking opportunities. Minny is just 10-16 ATS this season with a 3-10 SU home record. Minnesota has been favored in just 2 of their last eleven games and they failed to cover both of those two games. On the season they are 4-7 ATS when laying points. The Suns have been solid in this price range this season and you can make the argument they’ve been under-valued with an 8-4 ATS record when priced a dog of 5.5 points or less. The Suns have lost two straight but those L’s came against much better teams in the Spurs and Thunder and now step way down in talent. The Suns are 20-5-1 ATS their last 26 when coming off a spread loss. Phoenix didn’t shoot the ball well in their previous two outings but should find the range tonight against a Wolves team that is 28th in the league in field goal percentage defense allowed. Grab the points and Suns! |
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12-16-16 | Nets v. Magic -6 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ORLANDO MAGIC (-6) over Brooklyn Nets - 7PM ET Tonight we like the Orlando Magic at home over the visiting Brooklyn Nets. This is a great spot to play on the Magic, off a home loss, and fade the Nets who are off a rare win. Brooklyn is 0-6 SU when coming off a win and they’ve lost those games by an average of 18PPG. In other words, this is a bad team that is content after a win and tend to let down. The Nets have lost 7 straight road games by an average of 17PPG and a big reason is their road defense which is atrocious. Brooklyn allows foes to hit nearly 49% of their field goal attempts when they are the visitor and they have the WORST defensive efficiency rating away from home. That’s significant here as the Magic have played extremely well offensively their last two games putting up 131 against a Hawks defense that ranks 5th in DEFF (defensive efficiency) and 108 points against the LA Clippers who are 6th in that same category. The Magic obviously found their ‘stroke’ offensively in those two games shooting over 58% against the Hawks and over 47% against the Clips. Now the Magic step WAY down tonight against a Nets D that gives up 114.5PPG (last in NBA). The Magic haven’t been great as a favorite this year but this is a fantastic spot to play on them at home as we feel they are trending up. PLAY ON ORLANDO MAGIC! |
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12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #504 Toronto Raptors (-7.5) over Milwaukee Bucks - 7:35PM ET - The VALUE bet tonight is on the Toronto Raptors at home over the Milwaukee Bucks. These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee and the Raptors were -3.5 points in that game and won 105-99. Now Toronto is at home laying just a few more points than they were on the road. The Bucks are just 3-5 SU away from home this year where they have an average negative point differential of -3.9PPG. That's a big difference from their home differential of +4.5PPG. The Raptors have a tremendous home court advantage ranking 6th in the league last year in average point differential, 2nd this season at +12PPG. In their last six home games the Raptors have been especially ruthless going 5-1 SU and ATS with the lone loss coming to the Cavs. In those five wins the Raptors won by an average of 27PPG! Toronto has won 5 straight in this series, covering 4. Lay the points! |
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12-10-16 | Nuggets -3 v. Magic | Top | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #501 Denver Nuggets (-3) @ Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - Our first play on Saturday in the NBA is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points on the road over the Orlando Magic. At first glance you have to wonder why the 8-15 Nuggets are laying points on the road but there is a reason for it and is an indicator for us to buy Denver. Orlando is in a bad scheduling situation here with this being the second night of a back to back and their 4th game in just 5 days. Teams historically don't do well in that situation winning just 37% of the time last regular season. The Magic will also be a little short handed here as starting center Biyombo and forward Vucevic are not expected to be in the lineup. 6th man Jeff Green is also questionable. You might say the Nuggets are without PG Emmanuel Mudiay but it's actually a blessing in disguise as Mudiay has been awful his last five games with the Nugs posting a net efficiency rating of -30.2 when he's been on the court. He shot just 28 percent in those 5 games averaging just 7.6PPG. In other words - no loss for Denver. Despite a losing overall road record the Nuggets are above average in road point differentials and efficiency differentials. Orlando on the other hand is below average in both of those same statistical categories. In fact, the Magic are 28th in the league in home efficiency differential at -6.1 (last is -7 so you get a better idea of how bad they've been at home this season). The chalk has covered 5 of the last six in this series and the Magic are on an 0-4 ATS run at home. |
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12-09-16 | Knicks v. Kings -4 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS over NY Knicks, 10:35 ET - Tonight in the NBA we like the Sacramento Kings minus the points over the New York Knicks. The line on this game is offering tremendous value as these same two teams just met this past Sunday in New York with the Knicks winning 106-98 as a -1.5 point favorite. Now the Kings return home, play with revenge and have a line on the game that is a full 4-points less than what it should be. Sacramento kept that game close despite the fact they had a HORRENDOUS shooting night of just 32.3% from the field. A plus for the Kings in that contest though was Boogie Cousins 36 point, 12 rebound effort against a Knicks team that struggles defending good post players. Sacramento is 8th in the NBA in average points scored in the paint this season while the Knicks have the 19th worst defense in terms of points in the paint allowed per game. Bulls starting PG Derrick Rose could miss this game with back spasms and he put up 20 points and 6 assists in Sunday's meeting. The Kings are just 2-3 SU their last five at home but it was a brutal schedule against the league's best teams (Rockets, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Spurs). Now they step way down in class against a Knicks team that is 3-6 SU away this year with a negative point differential of -7.4PPG. Sacramento is 9-4 ATS against above .500 teams this season, 5-1 ATS at home. The Kings are quietly playing solid basketball and have covered 8 of their last eleven. Take the home team here. |
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12-08-16 | Spurs v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
PLAY ON: CHICAGO BULLS +4.5 over San Antonio Spurs TNT 9:35PM ET - Tonight we side with the Chicago Bulls at home plus the points over the San Antonio Spurs. This is a solid spot to buy Chicago as they are off 3 straight losses which will have them extra focused and motivated tonight against a quality opponent. Despite their modest 11-10 SU record the Bulls have put up some very solid statistics and we rate them a top 10 team in the league. The Bulls are top 10 in offensive efficiency and rank just 2 spots behind the Spurs in defensive efficiency ratings. Chicago's overall efficiency differential is slightly worse than the Spurs who are 18-4 on the year. Another great comparison in how close these teams are statistically is their average overall point differential per game as the Spurs rank 6th in the NBA at plus +5PPG while the Bulls are 8th at plus + 3PPG. San Antonio is coming off a road win in Minnesota as a 4-point favorite which is essentially the same line on tonight's game against a Bulls team that is much better than the Wolves. The Bulls were recently a 2-point home dog to the Cavs who they beat by 6-points and the Cavs are ranked higher than the Spurs in our power ratings. Chicago has covered 7 of their last ten at home and we expect them to snap the Spurs road win streak in the Windy City tonight. |
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12-07-16 | Blazers v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
#714 10* @Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 8PM ET - We like the Bucks at home over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Good spot here for a home win by Milwaukee as they catch the Blazers off an upset road win in Chicago on Monday while the Bucks are off a disappointing 1-point home loss to the Spurs. Last season the Blazers had the largest home/road point differential in the NBA as they were especially good at home but poor on the road. This season the Blazers are better statistically in those categories but they are still a negative -3.5PPG when away from home. Portland is 5-6 SU on the road this year but in four of those road wins the opponent had less than a .500 record. Milwaukee is 7-5 SU at home on the season but they have the 10th best home point differential in the league at +5PPG. The Bucks are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings at home and top 10 in offensive efficiency on their own court. Milwaukee blew a game the other night when they had the Spurs down late but couldn't seal that home win. They had won 4 in a row which included a victory over Cleveland. The Bucks have covered 8 of the last ten meetings and will get a solid home win here tonight. |
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12-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #710 @New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the New Orleans Pelicans at home over the Memphis Grizzlies. New Orleans is coming off back to back losses but it's understandable considering they faced the Clippers and Thunder. Now they'll be dialed in and focused for a very winnable game against a very short-handed Memphis team that already beat the Pelicans earlier this season. The Grizzlies are down to just 9 players on their bench and have some major minute guys out for their 3rd straight game. Role players step up for a game, sometimes two but there is a reason for them being role players and not starters. With their injuries the Grizz have turned to center Marc Gasol to carry the load and he's done so with 44 combined points his last two games. He won't have a big game here with Anthony Davis defending him or rotating over as the help defender in the low post. Not to mention the Grizzlies last two wins have come against the Magic and Lakers who obviously aren't the league's elite teams. New Olreans is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with the lone loss coming via the Clippers. The Pelicans should exploit a Grizzlies defense that is allowing opponents to shoot over 47% their last five games. Lay the points! |
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12-03-16 | Wolves v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 125-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #704 @Charlotte Hornets (-6) vs Minnesota TWolves, 7PM ET - Today we play ON the Charlotte Hornets over the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. These same two teams just met a few weeks back with the Hornets winning by 7-points on the road as a 2-point chalk. Now they are laying just 6-point at home which is not a big enough of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Wolves are off a game last night in New York in which 4 of five starters played 30+ minutes so fatigue becomes a factor. Minnesota has been over-valued by Vegas all season long, hence the 6-13 ATS record overall and 2-8 SU road record. Charlotte has the much better efficiency differential ratings as they are top 10 in the NBA while the Wolves are 16th in the league in the same category. Minny is just 1-8 ATS their last nine versus teams with winning records and the Hornets have covered 5 of the last six meetings. We'll lay the points with Charlotte at home today. |
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11-28-16 | Celtics -5 v. Heat | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS - We like the spot to play on the Boston Celtics minus the points at the Miami Heat. The 7-6 Celtics have gotten off to a slow start this season after going 48-34 a season ago. But a lot of that is due to a couple injuries to Al Horford and Jae Crowder who have missed 9 and 8 games each respectively. With those two back in the lineup the Celtics are starting to look like a better version of last year's squad that had the 8th best point differential in the NBA away from home. Boston has ripped off 3 straight road wins and 4 of their last five with the lone loss coming by a point in New Orleans. Even with their injuries the C's are 10th in the NBA in road point differential of +.2PPG. Miami on the other hand is just 2-6 SU at home this year and are clearly in a rebuilding phase with a younger roster. The Heat are 19th in the NBA in home efficiency differential and their lone two wins have come against the Bucks and Kings who have a combined losing record of 14-18. Boston is solid in this role as a small chalk with a 4-1 ATS record this year and are 5-2 SU this season when coming off a loss (to the Spurs). Celts have covered 5 of the last six on this court and will notch an 8+ point win here tonight. |
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11-23-16 | Raptors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors plus the points over the Houston Rockets. We like good teams off losses which is the case with the Raptors tonight in Houston. Toronto is just 1-4 SU their last five games and are coming off a loss against the Clippers but they step down in talent tonight when facing the Rockets. In their last four losses the Raptors have been beaten by the 3 best teams in the league in the Clippers, Warriors and Cavaliers. When they played in Cleveland they were +5.5 points and are now catching 4 from a Rockets team that isn't nearly as good as the Cavs. Toronto is one of just 10 teams in the league that have a positive point differential on the road (+1.3PPG) this season which is slightly lower than their season numbers a year ago of +2.5PPG which was 5th best. In other words this team plays well on the road! Houston is 4-1 SU at home this but not one of those four wins have come against teams with above .500 records on the road. Last year these two teams played a pair of tight games and considering the circumstances we like a more hungry Toronto team to get a road victory. |
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11-16-16 | Warriors -6 v. Raptors | Top | 127-121 | Push | 0 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - The Toronto Raptors are in a tough scheduling situation tonight as they come off a HUGE game last night against their biggest rival in the East and defending NBA Champs Cleveland Cavaliers and now must face the best team in the West, Golden State. Besides being the second of a back-to-back this is the Raptors 4th game in just six days. Meanwhile the Warriors come into this game on 2 days rest. The Warriors seem to be jelling as a team right now with four straight double-digit wins where they've scored 116+ in all four contests. Golden State does it with offense as they are the most efficient team in the league and shoot over 50% from the field overall, 37.5% from the 3-point line. A good comparison for tonight is the Warriors game on the road in Portland a few weeks back when they were favored by 5-points and won by 23. Toronto already has 2 home losses this year so they're clearly not invincible on their own court. Off that emotionally and physically draining affair last night in Cleveland we doubt they have much in their tanks tonight. Last season as a 6-point or less road chalk the Warriors were 8-2-2 ATS. Lay it with Golden State. |
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11-15-16 | Hornets +1 v. Wolves | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON: CHARLOTTE HORNETS - In our opinion the Minnesota Timberwolves continue to be one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA. The young Wolves are going to be great value as a 'dog' this season and have a bright future but they're not there yet. Consider this: The Wolves were just favored by a point at home against a Lakers team that was one of the worst in the league last year. Now they are favored here against a Charlotte team that made the playoffs last year as a 6th seed. Minnesota faces a Charlotte team that is coming off 2 straight losses to the two best teams in the East, Toronto and Cleveland. This Hornets team was 18-23 SU on the road last year and were 10th in the league in road point differential. This season they've gotten off to a perfect 3-0 road start and we predict a 4-0 record after tonight. Again, Minnesota is improved but let's not forget they were 14-27 SU at home last year with the 27th worst differential of -3.8PPG. The Wolves have also played a weak schedule to date and have just a 3-6 record to show for it. Charlotte has covered 4 of the last five meeting with the Timberwolves and will get another win and cover here. |
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11-15-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -6 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
PLAY ON: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS - We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers at home over the visiting Toronto Raptors. We like the value with the Cavs here at minus six as they were just 2.5 point favorites in Toronto a few weeks back and should be favored by 10 here. These two teams met last year in the playoffs which saw the home team win 5 of the six meetings. The Cavs three home playoff wins came by 31, 19 and 38 points so it's not like the Raptors were even competitive on this court. Cleveland has not cashed in for their backers in their last five home games so don't be surprised if they make a statement tonight against a Raptors team that is more than likely the second best team in the East. Cavs get focused when good teams come to town as they are 7-1-1 ATS their last nine at home against teams with winning road records. The Raptors on the flip side are just 2-5 ATS their last seven road games against teams with winning home records. Cleveland had an average point differential of +8.2PPG last regular season which was the 4th best number in the NBA and asking them to cover this short number doesn't seem like too much to ask. Lay it! |
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11-11-16 | Pacers -5 v. 76ers | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
#701 Indiana Pacers (-5) @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET. This is a quick home-and-home turnaround as these same two teams just met on Wednesday in Indiana. The Pacers won an ugly overtime game 122-115 as a -11.5 point favorite. Granted Indiana hasn't won a road game this year but the 76ers haven't won a home game either. Indiana is the better team here and after a close, sloppy win they'll be focused here against an over-matched Sixers club. The Pacers are far superior offensively with the 11th most efficient offense in the NBA averaging 1.078 points per possession. By comparison the 76ers are LAST in the league averaging just .951 points per possession. Defensively the Pacers aren't great in terms of defensive efficiency and rank a few spots below Philly but it's marginable. Philadelphia has the worst point differential in the NBA at a negative -12.7PPG and have lost 3 of their five home games by more than tonight's spread. The 76ers guards are HORRIBLE and the Pacers will exploit them on the perimeter with Teague, Ellis and Paul George. Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings. Lay the points! |
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11-09-16 | Pistons -4 v. Suns | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
Detroit Pistons (-4) over @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - The Detroit Pistons are coming off an embarrassing 32-point loss to the Clippers and will bounce back here against a travel weary Phoenix Suns team. Detroit is a profitable 8-3 ATS their last eleven when coming off a straight up loss and they've covered 4 straight on this floor. Phoenix is just 7-9 ATS their last sixteen games when playing the second night of a back-to-back, 0-1 already this season. The Suns are coming off a hard fought close game in Portland last night and we don't see them duplicating that effort against the Pistons tonight. The big advantage the Pistons have here is defensively as they rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings while the Suns are 8th worst. Not to mention the Pistons are actually slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings too. Detroit has an overall point differential of +2PPG on the season while the Suns are a negative or -7PPG. Let's not forget this Phoenix team won just 14 games at home last season so getting the Pistons to win this game by a few buckets is not too much to ask. Lay the points. |
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11-08-16 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Memphis -3 over Denver, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET This is a very important game for the 3-4 Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve been at home for a majority of the early season and after this game they will be on the road for 6 of their next 7 games. They are off back to back home losses to two of the better teams in the West, Portland & LA Clippers. They catch a 4-4 Denver team in a great spot for a potential letdown here. The Nuggets will be playing their 5th straight road game here and 6 of their last 7 have been away from home. This ends a long road trip as Denver heads home after this to play 6 of their next 7 at home. Denver is off a big upset win @ Boston in their most recent game which sets this up nicely. Memphis is laying just 3.5 points here in an early season “must win” spot against a team that was 33-49 last year. For comparison, Memphis was just favored by 1.5 here against a Portland team that was the 5th seed in the West last season and was not in the same tough road situation that Denver is currently in. The value and urgency is with the host here and we’ll lay the 3.5 with Memphis. |
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11-07-16 | Pacers v. Hornets -3 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over the visiting Indiana Pacers. Charlotte continues to be one of those teams in the NBA that quietly fly under the radar but have shaped themselves into a pretty solid team. The Hornets are 4-1 SU this year and have won 33 of their last 46 home games. Charlotte had a +6.4PPG home point differential last season which was 7th best in the NBA. Indiana was just 19-22 SU on the road last year, with a negative differential of -.6 PPG. They've picked up where they left off last year as they stand 0-3 SU away from home this season (average loss margin 14.6PPG) and the losses have come against Brooklyn, Chicago and Milwaukee. All three of those teams are ranked lower in our power ratings than Charlotte. Charlotte beat the Pacers in all three meetings a year ago and clearly have a matchup advantage in this series. The Hornets have covered 4 straight at home over the Pacers and 8 of the last nine meetings overall. Lay the short number with Charlotte. |
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11-05-16 | Wolves v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 92-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
ASA #703 @Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) over Minnesota Timberwolves - 6PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder minus the points at home over the Minnesota T'Wolves. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they are coming off an embarrassing TV loss to the Warriors a few nights back and will take out their frustrations on the Wolves. Minnesota is somewhat of a media darling with their young budding superstars of Wiggins and Towns which makes them over-valued right now. In their two road games they were favored at Memphis and a 1-point dog at the Kings. Now they are catching just 5.5 points at OKC with the Thunder off a loss? In fact, the Thunder were -8.5 at home against the Suns and -8 at home against the Lakers this season and are now laying less than that in this situation against a Wolves team that isn't any better than those two teams. The Thunder have covered 5 straight when coming off a double digit loss and 6 of their last eight off any loss. A focused OKC team and Russell Westbrook get a huge home win here. |
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11-04-16 | Clippers -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: L.A. CLIPPERS - We will play the LA Clippers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Clippers come into this game off an upset home loss which should have them more focused than normal. Conversely the Grizzlies come into this game off an OT win over the New Orleans Pelicans and may be a little 'relaxed'. The Clippers have played a tough schedule early on with quality wins over Portland and Utah while the Grizzlies have played a soft schedule against Minnesota (twice), New York, Washington and New Orleans. None of those aforementioned teams made the playoffs last season and combined had a record of 161 and 249. Last regular season the Clippers had the 6th best road differential in the NBA and a road record of 24-17 SU. Memphis was 20th in the league in home court differential last year and the Clippers have won 4 of the last five meetings. With L.A. coming off a HORRIBLE shooting night we expect a bounce back here, especially considering they face the Spurs tomorrow night and can't afford to go into that contest off 2 straight losses. Memphis was a home dog to the T'Wolves this year and were +3.5 points at home to the Wizards and the Clippers are far superior to both of those teams and laying just a few more points here. Take the Clippers! |
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11-01-16 | Bucks v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON #714 New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) over Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET - Tonight we like the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points at home over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Pelicans have gotten off to an 0-3 start but let's not lose site of the fact that two of those losses have come against the Spurs and Warriors who were 2 of the 3 best teams in the NBA a year ago. After losing 11 of its first 12 games a season ago you can bet the Pelicans are already feeling the heat and will play with a higher sense of urgency than normal in game #4 this season. New Orleans big man Anthony Davis has gotten off to a fantastic start to the season by averaging 37.7PPG and Milwaukee doesn't have anyone on the roster that can stop him. The Bucks have given up an average of 52 points per game in the paint this season which is the second most in the NBA. Milwaukee has gotten off to a 1-2 start to the season and are going through an adjustment period as head coach Jason Kidd continues to juggle his lineup. The Bucks were one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA last season and don't look as if they've gotten any better this season. The Pelicans have covered 5 of the last six meetings with the Bucks in the Big Easy and 8 of the last eleven meetings overall. We don't feel the oddsmakers have adjusted this number enough considering the Pelicans were just a -1.5 point favorite at home over Denver who is better than this Milwaukee team. Lay it! |
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10-26-16 | Heat v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #702 Orlando Magic (-) over Miami Heat - 7PM ET - We will play on the Orlando Magic at home over the visiting Miami Heat. The Heat had 13 more wins than the Magic a season ago and were better statistically in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ratings but offseason moves and hiring's may have flipped where these teams end up at the end of the season. In fact, a telling number that supports our thinking is the win totals posted by Vegas on these two teams as the Heat's regular season number is 34.5 while the Magic is 37.5. The Magic made some major upgrades in the offseason including the hiring of Frank Vogel as the new coach. Vogel will have a HUGE impact on this young roster and could be the difference maker for this franchise. Orlando traded for Serge Ibaka, brought in Bismack Biyombo via free agency (won't play tonight) and added veteran forward Jeff Green. Orlando's starting lineup is simply better than the Heat and we predict it shows tonight. Nikola Vucevic is back in the middle after averaging 18.2PPG, 8.9RPG and 1.1BLKPG, young rising star Aaron Gordon is on the wing along with Ibaka while the backcourt will be manned by Evan Fournier (15.4PPG, 2.7APG) and Elfrid Payton (10.7PPG, 6.4 APG). Miami on the flip side is now expecting role players to step up and be major contributors and we don't think they will. D-Wade is gone from Miami and he had a phenomenal season a year ago (played in 75 games which was his most since the 2010-11 season) leading the Heat and scoring and second in assists per game. Now Miami turns to Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow to carry the load and we think it's going to be a long year for the Heat starting with a loss tonight. Orlando was 23-18 SU at home last season with a +2.3 point differential. Miami was 20-21 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -2.1PPG. The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five and we expect a double digit win here by Orlando! |
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06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Golden State (-6) over Cleveland Cavaliers - 8PM CT Monday - We will play on Golden State minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game #5 on Monday. First of all, the suspension of Draymond Green is a complete and utter joke and I understand the 'point system' the NBA has in place and Green exceeded the technical foul number BUT really? Ask yourself this, had the roles been reversed and it was LeBron instead of Green in that situation would the NBA have given him a post game technical and suspended LBJ? No chance! Will the Warriors miss Green tonight? Yes, but not as much as you might think. Green did grab 12 boards in the last game but was just 2 of 9 from the field and is on an 0-8 run from beyond the arc. This is a deep team and they've had players step up every time they've faced adversity in the past two years so I think they overcome that loss. The oddsmakers adjusted this number but smart money continues to flow in on the Warriors even after it was announced Green was out. Golden State shot under 41% in the last game but still beat the Cavs in Cleveland by 9-points. In the first two games of the series the Warriors shot 49.4% and 54.3% at home and won in blowout fashion. GST was the best shooting team in the league at home this season, the most efficient offense at home and had the largest average point differential on their own floor. Golden State is 50-3 SU at home and have a 127-22 record here the past three full seasons. Lay the points with the Warriors. |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Golden State Warriors + over Cleveland Cavaliers - Friday 8PM CT - We were on the Cavs in Game #3 and they rewarded us with a blowout win over Golden State but tonight we 'zag' and take the Warriors who are basically in the same situation that the Cavs were going into Game #3. We have a great team, off an embarrassing blowout loss and in need of a win. Golden State was really outplayed in the last game and didn't match the Cavs physical play, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Cleveland was 10th in the league during the regular season in defensive efficiency rating so I doubt we'll see a repeat performance tonight on that end of the floor for them. Not to mention the Cavs field goal percentage defense was 14th in the NBA (barely above average) as they allowed 45% shooting by foes during the regular season. Golden State had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #3 as Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green hit just 12 of 34 from the field and the team as a whole shot just 42.1%. Now consider this, the Warriors have played 102 games this season and they shot below 42.1% just fifteen times so the odds favor a much better shooting night in Game #4. On the flip side, the Cavs shot it extremely well in Game #3 at 52.7% which was considerably higher than their season average of 46.1%. And the Warriors FG% defense was 2nd best in the league so expect a better effort from them on that end of the floor too. The Warriors are 13-1 SU off a loss this year (27-7 SU last 2 years) and have been underdogs just 6 times this season and they've covered four of those games. Overall the Warriors are 30-11 SU the past two playoffs and they'll find a way to win this game in Cleveland tonight. |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1.5 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* Cleveland Cavaliers (pick'em) over Golden State Warriors 8PM CT Wednesday - We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers in this MUST WIN situation, AT HOME, OFF A BLOWOUT LOSS! Good teams, great players bounce in this role and the right wager here is Cleveland...even without Kevin Love. During the regular season and playoffs the Cavs have lost back to back games just 9 times this year and lost three games in a row once but Irving and James both missed games in that 3 game losing stretch. Cleveland didn't do ANYTHING well in Game #2 and it was a humbling 33-point loss in Golden State. They shot just 38% as a team in Game #1 and 35% in G2 which are both well below their season average of 46.2% which is 9th best in the league. You can bet that the Cavs at home will shoot much better tonight, especially LeBron who has to attack the rim and the Warriors interior defenders. When coming off a 'beat' this season the Cavs are 19-9 SU and have covered 4 of their last six in that situation. James shot near 54% in the Eastern Conference playoffs but has been held to just 41% in the first two games of this series. At home this year LeBron made over 53% of his FG attempts. The Cavaliers are 40-8 SU at home this year and during the regular season had the 6th best home point differential in the league. In the post season the Cavs home differential is +20PPG and they haven't lost with a 7-0 record. In fact, Cleveland has the best efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of all the playoff teams of +22.8 which is remarkable. Lastly let's consider this. If this game was played a week ago the Cavaliers would easily be a 4 to 5 point home favorite so the value lies with Cleveland. |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers plus the points over Golden State in Game #2. We expect the Cavs to bounce back here and if they don't win they should cover this number. During the regular season and playoffs the Cavs have lost back to back games just 8 times this year and they're coming off a pretty poor game by their standards. Cleveland turned the ball over 17 times which was uncharacteristic as they averaged just 13 per game during the regular season which was 6th best in the NBA. They also shot just 38% as a team which was well below their season average of 46.2% which is 9th best in the league. When coming off a 'beat' this season the Cavs are 19-8 SU and have covered 4 of their last five in that situation. Golden State didn't get big games from their two Super Stars in Steph Curry or Klay Thompson so expect those two to contribute much more in this game but you also can't expect reserve guards Shaun Livingston to score a career playoff best 20-points or Leandro Barbosa to go 5 of 5 from the field. The Cavs have been 'dogs' just 10 times this season and they've covered 70% of those games. Included in that underdog run, Cleveland has only been a pooch of 7 or more points only once this year and they covered that game so we'll grab the points here in this must win situation with a good team like the Cavs. |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
We've got another great Finals match up this year when the Warrior and Cavaliers square off for the second straight time. We clearly got the best of the East and the West again in what promises to be a very entertaining series. The first thing I read online this morning is LeBron and the Cavs wanted this match up and are out for revenge from last year's Finals loss to Golden State. Guess what. LeBron and the Cavs were looking for payback in two regular season games against the Warriors and had a full roster but still LOST BY 34 in Golden State and 6 at home. That's five straight losses by Cleveland to Golden State dating back to last year's Championship. The Warriors won 73 games during the regular season this year and are currently 48-3 SU at home including 8-1 in the playoffs. The Warriors have an average point differential at home of +14.2PPG, shoot an average of 49% and allow under 44% shooting by opponents. In the playoffs the Warriors have won every home game but two by more than the spread in this game. Last year the big difference in the Warriors/Cavaliers series was the defensive play of Andre Iguodala who frustrated LBJ in the last three games of that series. If you paid close attention to the Thunder versus Warriors series the difference maker we felt was Iggy's defense on Durant and Westbrook in Games 6 and 7. Obviously Cleveland is playing pretty well right now but some of that is a bit misleading as they beat some average teams in the East in Detroit, Atlanta and Toronto. Home court will be huge in this series and Golden State has covered 10 of their last twelve on their home court. We'll lay the points in Game #1. |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Play on: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-) over Golden State Warriors – 8PM CT - Game 6 Saturday – The oddsmakers have finally gotten this line right with the Thunder now favored at home over Golden State but we feel there is still value with the OKC side. Consider for a moment how impressive the Thunder have been at home in the playoffs, especially the last two series as they are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Spurs and Warriors who were a combined 140-24 on the season. Not only that, but the last four wins over those two elite teams have come by 14, 14, 18 and 24 points respectively. Let’s also not forget the Thunder were 32-9 SU at home during the regular season (+9.8 point differential) and have just two home losses in the post season (+15.8 point playoff home differential). After breaking down the films off all the games of this series we’re convinced OKC is clearly the better team at this point in time and have too many matchup advantages for Golden State to overcome. KD or Kevin Durant is averaging 31PPG in this series while running mate Russell Westbrook is averaging 6.6 rebounds, 11 assists and 28PPG against Golden State this round. Even in their Game #5 win we didn’t feel the Warriors were the better team when they got a much needed home win to extend this series. Now OKC is back at home and off a loss where they are 13-3 SU this season in that situation. In fact, dating back to 2009 the Thunder have the best overall spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss by covering 58.4% of the time. In a playoff closeout situation the Thunder have won 11 straight games at home and have covered 6 straight times on this floor against Golden State. The pick here is OKC |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Play on: Golden State Warriors (-7) over Oklahoma City Thunder. We have to side with the Warriors here in a ‘must win’ situation at home off a loss. The scenario is perfect for a bet on Golden State but the Thunder have been the dominate team in this series and so laying seven plus points is the issue. Three of the four games in this series have been blowout with the victors winning by 27, 28 and 24 points so the number doesn’t scare us as much as it might normally. Golden State did not lose two straight games this entire season and are not about to lose three. The Warriors are 46-3 SU at home and have a home point differential of +14.4PPG which is one of the best in the NBA. On average Golden State shoots over 49% at home while allowing foes to hit under 44% of their shots and what’s significant about their shooting percentages is the fact the best shooting team in the NBA shot less than 41% in the previous two games. Back at home GST will find their touch again. The Warriors are 12-1 SU off a loss and a perfect 6-0 at home in that situation. The Thunder have been brilliant in the playoffs and may win this series but they won’t stay close in this one. OKC is just 1-5 ATS their last six trips to Golden State and we don’t expect the Thunder to get a cover here. |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | Top | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5) over Toronto Raptors – Weds 7:30PM CT – OK, we’ve lost two straight wagers on the Cavs as they completely let us down on the road in Games #3 and #4. Cleveland was unbeaten in the playoffs prior to their trip to the north where the Raptors finally woke up and played good basketball. But now back in Cleveland we expect the Cavs to dominate like they did in the first two games of this series when they won by 31 and 19 points respectively. Cleveland shot over 50% as a team in the first two contests, then shot under 50% in both games in Toronto. The same can be said about the Raptors who shot poorly in Games 1 & 2 then shot well when they were at home in Games 3 & 4. Let’s not forget the Cavs have won their home games in the post season by a ridiculous 18PPG and only one of those victories has been by less than tonight’s point spread. The Cavs are averaging 1.218 points per possessions at home which is an incredible number and the best in the NBA in the post season. Their defensive efficiency at home is the 3rd best overall of all the teams left standing at 1.02PPP. Toronto’s road OEFF (offensive efficiency) is last among teams that are still alive in the post season at .978 points per possession and they have the largest overall road average deficit in the playoffs of -10.5PPG which is why they are just 2-6 ATS in road playoff games. After some questionable ‘no call’s’ for LeBron in Toronto expect him to get the benefit of the doubt at home tonight. Cleveland is 18-8 SU off a loss this season and 11-1 at home. Granted they have a big number to cover tonight but we feel they get a double digit home win here. |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (+) over Golden State Warriors, 7PM CT - We will play on the OKC Thunder plus the points over the GST Warriors on Sunday in Game 3 of this series. With this Western Conference Finals locked at 1 win apiece it makes this game HUGE for both clubs and we like the home court advantage. The Warriors lost just 9 games during the regular season but have already lost 3 in the playoffs, two of which were on the road in Houston and Portland. Now they travel to one of the loudest, best home courts in the NBA in Oklahoma where the Thunder had a positive point differential of +9.8PPG. Their offensive efficiency rating at home was 1.125 points per possession which was second best in the league. In the playoffs those numbers are up and that includes a series against the Spurs. Granted, the Warriors road numbers are impressive too but they've proven they aren't as invincible on the road in the post season as they were during the regular season. The Thunder are 21-9 SU off a loss this season, 12-3 at home which obviously applies here considering they are an underdog. The home team has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and you don't get a team like OKC that has 2 of the 6 best players on their roster as a home underdog very often (4-2 ATS last 6 times). The difference in this game is Westbrook, Durant and a rebounding advantage for the Thunder. Grab the points. |
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05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -12 | Top | 89-108 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-12) over Toronto Raptors - Game 2 Thursday - Prior to the opener of this series the Cavs last played nine days ago, then they beat the Raptors handily in Game #1 and rested starters late in that game. The Raptors came off a grueling 7-game series with the Miami Heat and fatigue showed on Tuesday when they were blown out. The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs and have morphed into the 'Warriors' of the East by turning into a 3-point shooting team. Cleveland shot just 36% as a team during the regular season but have hit 44% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 three's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 three's for 35%. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. The Raptors are certainly not playing their best basketball right now and Cleveland is. Toronto has the worst point differential of any of the playoff teams left standing at +.6PPG while the Cavs have the 2nd best point differential in the playoffs of +10.5PPG. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.207PPP while the Raptors have the worst OEFF of any team left in the post season. In the opener the Raptors shot just 42% as a team and were killed on the boards 45-23. The line on this game is clearly inflated and we are betting into strong number but with how these teams are playing we'll bite and lay the points. Toronto is just 1-5 ATS their last six away from home and Cavs on perfect 4-0 ATS stretch on their home court. |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder- Tuesday, 8PM CT- In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we watched the all-time regular season win leader, Golden State, control the game for the majority of 3 quarters but couldn’t hold off the Thunder in the end. In Game #2 there is only one way to go and that’s with the 0-1 Golden State Warriors minus the points. The Warriors didn’t shoot it as well as they normally do in the opener and attempted 15 less free throws than the Thunder which is odd considering they are the home team and defending Champs. Golden State beat this Thunder team in the regular season by 8 and 15 points at home so we know they’re capable of covering tonight’s number. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season and are 45-3 SU this year at home. The Warriors suffered just 11 losses this year prior to Monday night and they are a perfect 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS in their next game after a beat, with those 11 wins coming by an average of 15PPG. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-2 ATS their last nine at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. We feel the big advantage for Golden State in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor where the Warriors had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Thunder were 13th. In the playoffs the Warriors are allowing 1.032 points per possession which is the 4th best in the post season. On the flip side OKC is 8th overall in points allowed per possession in the playoffs. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big upset victory we expect a letdown in Game #2, along with an inspired effort by the defending champs at home off a loss. Warriors have covered 6 of their last seven off a loss and the home team has covered 7 of the last nine in this rivalry. Lay the points. |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON Golden State Warriors (-7.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder. In the opener of the Western Conference Finals we will side with the golden State Warriors minus the points. Under Steve Kerr the Warriors are 6-1 SU in Game #1’s of a series while the Thunder are on a 0-7 SU streak in that same situation. Golden State beat this Thunder team three times in the regular season by 8, 3 and 15 points with the larger of the two victories coming at home. It’s well documented that Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG during the regular season. OKC had a very good road differential of +4.7PPG but they were just 10-12 ATS when playing away versus a team with a winning record. In fact, as an underdog this season the Thunder were just 6-8 ATS. The Warriors, were without Steph Curry for several games, are 7-1 ATS their last eight at home with six playoff wins by 26, 9, 23, 12, 11 and 4 points. As far as the on-court dynamics we feel the big advantage for the Warriors in this series comes on the defensive end of the floor. Golden State had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season while the Warriors were 5th best. In this situation, with the Thunder coming off a big series upset victory over the Spurs we expect a letdown in Game #1 of this series opener in Golden State. |
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05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +4.5 over Toronto, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET Three of the first four games in this series went to overtime and the overall scoring in those four games was Miami 379 & Toronto 374. Pretty much as tight as you can get. The last two games have strayed from that with the Raptors winning by 8 at home on Wednesday and Miami returning the favor winning by 12 on Friday. We think game 7 gets back to the trend of the first four games and fully expect this one to go to the wire. Miami is a veteran team that has proven they can get it done in these situations with Dwayne Wade at the helm. The Heat are now 7-1 their last 8 elimination games in the playoffs. They are 7-3 in Game 7’s while Toronto has never played in a Game 7 of this magnitude. The Heat have been in this spot year in and year out. Toronto’s playoff woes have been well documented as they are now 6-17 ATS their last 23 post-season tilts. This will be a pressure packed game for a Toronto team that is not accustomed to being in this spot. With the poor numbers we’ve stated, we simply have to shy away from the Raptors as a 2+ possession favorite here. Toronto relies heavily on their 2 guards DeRozan and Lowry and the fact is neither has shot well. Both are shooting under 40% in this series and we don’t expect a turnaround here in a stressful game 7 setting against a defense that has played very well not allowing the Raptors to hit 100 points once in this entire series. With Valanciunas now out, Toronto will rely even more on their perimeter shooting which is a recipe for disaster in this situation. We’ve got a feeling the pressure gets to Toronto here. They had the better record, they are playing at home, and trying to reverse their poor post-season history. You could say the more experienced Heat who have been successful in this situation are playing with nothing to lose – should we say less pressure – being on the road. We’ll take the points in this one. |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We are playing on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs Game #6 Thursday. The 'statistical' side of me screamed the Spurs in this game but the 'eye-test' tells me the Thunder win this game tonight. OK, that's not all and there is plenty of statistical support for the Thunder here including the Spurs record of 1-4 in Duncan's era when they are down 3-2 in a series. Some will say it's a 'must win' game for the Spurs but it's also a 'must win' game for the Thunder who don't want to go back to San Antonio. There has been a lot of talk about different key stats but the biggest is the Thunder's advantage on the boards. It's become evident Tim Duncan can't rebound against Adam's and Kanter and the Spurs don't have anyone on the bench that can come in and compete on the glass with the Thunder's "Bigs". OKC was +18 rebounds in the last game, +6 in Game #4, +5 in Game #3 and +11 in Game #2. The Thunder can make up for being a poorer offensive team than the Spurs because of how they dominate the rebounds and get second chance baskets. It's really the difference here. Yes, San Antonio is 14-3 SU off a loss this season but after a stellar season at home the Spurs have proven to be vulnerable with two home losses. San Antonio was also just 1-6 SU on the road this year against the better teams in the NBA so they're not the bully you think they are when up against the best. OKC is 35-11 SU at home this year and have 2 of the eight best players in the NBA on their roster in Westbrook and Durant and they'll advance tonight with a win over the Spurs. San Antonio just 3-12 ATS their last 15 visits to OKC. |
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05-11-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON Miami Heat (+4.5) over Toronto Raptors – 7PM CT Wednesday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. The Raptors are a poor 5-16 ATS the past three post seasons and much of that is due to the lack of consistency from All-Star’s Lowry and DeRozan. Lowry and DeRozan are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. In Game #4 those two combined for a 6 of 28 shooting night and just 19 combined points. As a team the Raptors hit less than 40% in the previous game while the Heat shot 45%. In the regular season the Heat were average in terms of overall offensive and defensive efficiency as a team, but in the playoffs they have the best DEFF allowing just .981 points per possession. The offense is 9th best at 1.049PPP which is slightly lower than their season average. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive efficiency statistics but in the post season they have the worst OEFF rating of all the teams left playing and have dropped from 1.10PPP to just 1.01PPP. Three of the four games in this series have gone into overtime and the non-overtime win was by just 4 points. All combined in the four games of this series the Heat have scored a grand total of 379 total points. Toronto has scored 374 total points. Just 5 total points separate these two teams in a four game series!!! D-Wade has turned back the clock and is carrying this Heat team and this one goes down to the wire again. There hasn’t been an adjustment in the pointspread and yet the Raps have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last eight games while the Heat are on a 5-1 ATS run. Grab the points! |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) over Oklahoma City Thunder - 7PM Tuesday - We like San Antonio at home in Game 5 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive, if not more so in some cases, considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant has shot is well the past three games of this series but his overall shooting percentage in the post season is 43.3% which is down considerably from his regular season average of 50.5%. In the opener of this series in San Antonio he was just 6 of 15 from the field and scored just 16 points. This Spurs defense was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. San Antonio is one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this game. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters, and the Spurs as defenders, but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Kawhi Leonard is playing fantastic right now along with LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker who give the Spurs the depth the Thunder lack. We love to play on great teams off a loss which is the case here as the Thunder beat San Antonio in Game #4 in OKC. San Antonio is 14-2 SU off a loss this season, 10-1 at home. Oh-by-the-way...those 10 wins at home off a loss came by an average of 19PPG and the lone loss was late in the year against Golden State. The home team has covered 20 of the last 30 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 3-7 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a convincing home win as they did in Game #1 of this series. |
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05-09-16 | Warriors -5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - This is a no-brainer to take the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. Let's just look at this logically first. We get arguably the best team of all time, off a loss and playing with revenge. In fact, this same scenario played out last series when Houston won Game #3 of their series at home and the next game the Warriors won by 27. The Warriors are 10-0 SU off a loss this season and those wins have come by an average of 14PPG. Let's not forget this Golden State team was 35-9 SU on the road this season with the second best point differential per game of +7.1PPG. They had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings away from home at 1.125 points per possession while allowing just 1.055PPP for the 7th best defensive efficiency rating. Portland had very good offensive efficiency numbers at home along with a +5.7 point differential but defensively they were in the bottom half of the league in efficiency ratings and they allowed foes to make 46.1% (14th) of their FG attempts on their own floor. A bad FG% defense is not a good recipe against a Warriors team that is 1st in the NBA in team shooting percentage at 48.7% on the year. Golden State is 7-2 SU the last nine meetings with the Blazers and all seven of those wins came by double digits with an average margin of victory of 16PPG. Portland is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the league at 37% but in their win last game they shot a ridiculous 56.7% as a team which nearly 20 full percentage points better than their season average. Golden State shot the 3 extremely well the last time out by making 48.3% of their 3-point attempts but that is just 7 percentage points higher than their season average. Given the law of averages, we don't see the Blazers shooting it as well as they did in the last game, and they can't rely on their defense to win games BUT the Warriors can. Even without Curry our prediction models predicts a 10+ point win by Golden State here. Lay it! |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
We are going to play on the OKC Thunder at home over the San Antonio Spurs. In our analysis of Game #3 we see several factors that suggest the Thunder can play much better than they did in the last game. The Spurs played pretty well and OKC didn’t in our opinion and yet it was a 4-point game. Russell Westbrook is an NBA Super Star and was a triple-double machine all season long. Yet, he still has his ‘brain cramp’ moments which is exactly what happened in Game #3 when he attempted 21 of his 31 field goals without even making a pass first. Today he’ll look to get his teammates more involved and we expect a better overall team effort. The Thunder shot just 41.5% from the field (average 47.4% at home) in Game #3 and yet it was only a 4-point game. I didn’t think it was the Spurs defense as much as Westbrook missing a ton of point-blank shots. I thought OKC’s defense was much better in the last game and expect a similar performance tonight in this do-or-die situation. Even with how well the Cavs are playing right now we still feel the Thunder and Spurs are two of the three best teams in the NBA so now we’re getting one of the best teams in the league, at home, off a loss and also a small underdog. The Thunder were 20-9 SU this season off a SU loss and 11-3 at home including four straight covers. OKC has covered 11 of the last 14 games at home with the Spurs so they clearly know what it takes to win on this court against San Antonio. OKC has one of the best home court point differentials in the NBA at +10PPG and they’ll even this series up with a win tonight. |
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05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat (-5) over Toronto Raptors – 4PM CT Saturday – With all the support of statistics it is clearly a case of Toronto players lacking ‘it’ when it comes to winning big games or winning in a playoff setting. This Toronto team had some fantastic season long numbers but last year and this post season they haven’t looked like the team they were during the regular season. They are lucky to be tied 1-1 in this series and were very close to being down 0-2 going into today. The biggest reason for their struggles is the horrendous play of their star players Lowry and DeRozen who combined are shooting less than 32% in the post season. Lowry can’t buy a basket right now shooting just 2 of 14 from beyond the arc in this series and a pathetic 15.8% in the playoffs. Lowry and DeRozen are the team’s leading scorers at over 21PPG but their struggles shooting have severely hurt this team’s chances of advancing. Miami had a great opportunity to go up 2-0 in this series but an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers (averaged 14 per game during regular season) cost them a Game #2 win. The Heat have owned the boards in the two games of this series with a +17 margin which should continue today in Miami. Miami has won 3 of their four playoff games at home convincingly with wins coming by 32, 12 and 33 points. On the regular season the Heat were one of the better offensive and defensive efficiency teams in the league and had an average point differential of +5.3PPG. Again, we’ll mention the pressure factor and how it has affectied Toronto. During the regular season the Raptors had impressive road statistics but in the post season, against the 7th seed Pacers, they lost 2 of three on the road and the two losses came by 17 and 18 points. Miami is very good at home off a loss with a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS record. The Heat have also covered 9 of their last ten at home while the Raptors are on a 0-6 ATS run. Lay the points with Miami here. |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors -4.5 over Miami Heat 8PM ET- We have a hard time trusting this Toronto team but if there is a spot to play on them it’s here. It’s human nature here for the Heat to relax a little in this game after winning Game #1 as it will be Toronto’s reaction to play with more urgency. Let’s not forget the Raptors are 35-11 SU at home this season which is one of the better home court records in the entire NBA. Toronto has the 6th best home point differential in the league at +6.6PPG and the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating at home (1.125PPP). Prior to the Game #1 loss the Raptors had beaten Miami three straight times by 14, 20 and 8 points and in the two regular season home meeting the Raps were favored by -6.5 and -10.5 points which are both higher than tonight’s number. Toronto is 12-2 SU at home off a loss their last 14 games including 3-0 SU in the playoffs with all three wins coming by an average of 6PPG. Not to mention that nine of their last 12 wins off a SU loss (including playoffs) have come by more than tonight’s spread. Miami played very well in the opener but let’s not forget they just played a long tough series with an average Charlotte team and age isn’t on their side. The Heat were just 11-14 ATS on the road against teams with winning records this season and are just 3-8 ATS their last eleven overall away from home. This has also been a chalk series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen clashes. If there is any time or place to bet the Raptors in this series it’s in this game. |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
We had the Cavaliers in the opener of this series and talked a lot about match ups and how Atlanta just can’t match up with the Cavs. But in this game we have to take the points with Atlanta in a desperate Game 2 situation. Much like the Thunder and Blazers played in Game 2’s of their series we expect a similar effort from the Hawks here. In the opener the Cavs shot extremely well from beyond the arc by hitting 15 of 31 3-point attempts which was good for 48.4%, well above their 36% season average. That’s especially surprising considering the Hawks have the #1 ranked FG% defense in the NBA allowing opponents to hit just 42.8% of their attempts on the season. Atlanta had the 5th best 3-point percentage defense allowing just 33.5%. The Hawks as a team shoot over 45% but in Game #1 they made under 39% of their FG attempts which is well below their season average. And it wasn’t anything the Cavs did who have an average FG% defense. The Hawks have the 7th best road point differential in the NBA when playing on the road this year and have the 2nd best defensive efficiency away from home allowing just 1.028 points per possession. Let’s not forget the Hawks actually led Game #1 with 8 minutes to play in the game but the Hawks offense managed just two field goals in the final 4 minutes of the game. Cleveland has a history of being over-priced which is evident by their 34-43 ATS record as a favorite. Atlanta was one of the best defensive teams in the league and they’ll find a way to keep Game #2 close. Grab the points. |
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05-02-16 | Hawks v. Cavs -7.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. First off I’d like to say this. I’m not a chalk eater but after two really EASY wins the last two days by taking the Spurs and Warriors in their opening round series why wouldn’t I at least consider Cleveland here. We can make the case that the Cavs are the third or fourth best team in the league behind the Spurs and Warrior and maybe OKC and they square off against a Hawks team that isn’t as good as OKC but similar to Portland. Why wouldn’t we lay the points in this game? Not to mention this is simply a ‘bad matchup’ for Atlanta. Yes, that’s right sometimes you have teams that can’t matchup physically against other opponents which I believe is the case for the Hawks. They’ve lost seven straight games to the Cavaliers after being swept in the playoffs last year and then losing all three meetings this season. The reality here is revenge doesn’t work here when you can’t matchup with your opponent. The Cavs have won the last 7 meetings by an average of 12PPG including one game very late in the season when Cleveland was at home favored by -6.5 points and won by 15. In terms of defense these two teams are similar as the Hawks were 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings (DEFF) while Cleveland was 10th. Offensively though the Cavs were much better ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency (OEFF) while the Hawks were 22nd worst. The Cavs are 35-8 SU at home this season with the 3rd best point differential of +8.2PPG which has improved to +11PPG in the post season. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a dog of 6 to +7.5 points this season which tells us they are an overvalued club. The Cavs are playing their best basketball right now and we see another game #1, new series, double digit win tonight. |
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05-01-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
Golden State Warriors (-9.5) over Portland Trailblazers – 2:30PM CT - Play on the Golden State Warriors over the Portland Trailblazers. We can pretty much use some of the same logic that we used yesterday with the Spurs over the Thunder. Today we get the one of the two BEST teams in the NBA at home laying a reasonable number over another team that is coming off a huge series and upset win. We laying 7 points with the Spurs over the Thunder who might be the 3rd best team in the league and will lay this number with a Warriors team that is even with San Antonio and a Blazers team that is worse than OKC. Golden State beat the Blazers on this floor twice this season by 16 and 25 points already and even without Curry they’ll get a double digit victory in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has the best home point differential in the NBA at +14.4PPG and are currently 42-2 on their home floor. Portland was not a good road team all season long with a 17-27 SU road record and the 21st WORST road point differential of -4.1PPG. Portland has a nice team that has a bright future but they did get a little lucky in the opening series when both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul went down with injuries. Granted the Warriors don’t have Curry here but other players have stepped up and this ‘TEAM’ continues to roll. Golden State has covered 5 straight at home and will get a blowout win here in the opener. |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
We like San Antonio at home in Game 1 of this series with the OKC Thunder. The Spurs were overshadowed by the Golden State Warriors all season long but their season statistics are just as impressive if not more so in some cases considering how they managed their schedule. The Spurs had the 2nd best overall point differential (+10.6PPG) in the league and home differential of +13.9PPG. They were 40-1 SU at home in the regular season and destroyed Memphis in the first round by 32 and 26 in San Antonio. The Spurs can match up with Durant and Westbrook and limit the Thunders two superstars which is clearly the way to beat OKC. Durant did not shoot it well in the first round series against the Mavs hitting just 36.8% from the field and 26.8% from beyond the arc. Now he'll go up against a Spurs defense that was 1st in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just .99 points per possession. The Spurs are one of the best overall FG% defenses in the league and 3rd overall in 3-point percentage against them by allowing just 33%. It's hard to believe but OKC is the 16th worst 3-point shooting team in the league so don't expect the Thunder to rain 3's in this series. You probably didn't know this either with the way the media hypes the Thunder as shooters and the Spurs as defenders but San Antonio is the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the league behind Golden State at 38.1%. Under-appreciated Kawhi Leonard shot 52.7% in the first round, including 61.1% from beyond the arc. San Antonio is 4-0 in a Game 1 of a series after sweeping the previous series and they've covered 6 of their last 7 Conference Semifinal games. The home team has covered 18 of the last 26 in this series and surprisingly the Thunder were not great underdogs of 7.5 point or less with a 2-6 spread record this season. Lay the points with San Antonio who gets a double digit win. |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
We like the Indiana Pacers at home over the Toronto Raptors tonight. Indiana dominated the last game of this series for the vast majority of the game before a 4th quarter collapse when they managed just 9 points. Despite scoring just 9-points in the 4ht the Pacers still only lost by 3-points. Pacers Paul George has been a beast in this series averaging over 28PPG and he’s the type of player that can carry a team for long stretches of games and in this elimination setting he’ll shine. Toronto just isn’t trustworthy. They’ve struggled in the playoffs the last two years and if it weren’t for their horrendous 4th quarter in the last game they’d be facing playoff extinction here. The telling statistics in this series and difference for Indiana has been their defense. The Pacers had the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA during the regular season allowing opponents to hit just 43.8% of their attempts and in the post season they’ve held the Raptors to that number or below in every game. Toronto is not a very good shooting team either as they ranked 17th in the NBA in FG% or team shooting. Yes, the Raptors are much better overall in terms of offensive efficiency but the Pacers defense finished the regular season ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency rankings and are clearly one of the best in the league. Our predictive math model tells us the Pacers win this game by 7-9 points and we agree. Play ON the Indiana Pacers. |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
We will grab the points with the LA Clippers at home over the Portland Trailblazers. We've been doing this a loooonnnnggggg time and one thing we've seen over and over again is the game after a superstar gets hurt, other players step up and play well with opportunity to play more. IE: See the Warriors against Houston in their last game with Curry out. Remember it's a pretty fine line that separates good and great players in the NBA and when the reserves get a chance to shine in the spotlight they typically respond. The Clippers played half of the season without Blake Griffin so they'll fill that void tonight. The bigger loss is PG Chris Paul who the pick and roll offense ran through BUT the Clippers prepared for this scenario by putting in a true motion offense this season in case Paul went down. Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford (perennial 6th man of the year) and JJ Redick will have to step up in his absence and we feel they're up for the task. Let's not forget the Blazers were not a good road team this season with a 16-27 SU away record and a negative road differential of -4.8PPG. When playing good teams or clubs with winning records on the road this year the Blazers were just 9-13 ATS in the regular season. The Clippers were -8.5 points at home in game two of this series and are now a home underdog here? No way! Take the points with the LA Clippers and watch the back-ups get it done. |
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04-26-16 | Celtics +7 v. Hawks | Top | 83-110 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS: Grab the points with the Boston Celtics tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. This has been a great series so far and should go a full 7 games before an eventual winner is decided. After losing the first two games of the series, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens, made the necessary adjustments and the C's won the next two games to even things up at 2 games apiece. Three of the four games have been tightly contested with decisions by 9 points in overtime, 8 points and 1 point. The lone big win was by Atlanta at home in Game #2 when the Celtics scored just 7 points in the first quarter which is clearly an anomaly. We are obviously getting value with the spread here too as the line on the opening game of this series was Atlanta favored by -5.5 points but now they are laying 7. The Raptors had one of the better home point differentials in the league at home of +6.6PPG during the regular season but Boston had the 8th best road differential of +.9PPG. These two teams were both top 5 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings but the Celtics were far superior in offensive efficiency ranking 10th compared to Atlanta's 22nd rankings. Great teams find a way to bounce back after a loss but that's not the case with the Hawks who are 0-5 ATS their last five when coming off a beat. |
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04-24-16 | Warriors -9 v. Rockets | Top | 121-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* Golden State Warriors (-9) over Houston Rockets Game 4 Sunday 3:35PM ET Golden State is in Houston to face the Rockets in Game #4 today and should get a lift with the return of league MVP Steph Curry to the lineup. Without Curry the Warriors were able to beat the Rockets at home by 9 in Game 2 but then lost Game 3 by 1 in Houston. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and they allow a whopping 106.3PPG. The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio. Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston. Golden State has covered 5 of the last seven and are 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. It's an inflated number but we still like the Warriors here by double digits. |
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04-23-16 | Raptors v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Toronto, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET We’re going to take the Indiana Pacers plus the points over Toronto and expect an even 2-2 series after today. Indiana has the advantage defensively with one of the best efficiency defenses in the league and will have to contain the Raptors offensively. The Pacers have rarely been home underdogs this entire season and when they have been it’s mainly been the powerhouse teams of the West. Meaning the value clearly lies with Indiana at home in a must win situation. Much has been made of Toronto’s poor playoff success the past few years and even after winning the last two games we’re not about to trust them in this setting. The Pacers have done well when coming off a SU loss by covering 8 of their last eleven in this situation and the underdog has cashed 4 of the last five in this rivalry. Paul George and Monte Ellis will carry Indiana to a home win and even this series up. |
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04-21-16 | Warriors -5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-97 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: If you've followed our picks for any length of time you've heard us mention 'value' a lot when it come to the pointspread. Tonight is one of those cases as we look at the three NBA games on the docket. Golden State travels to Houston to face the Rockets in Game #3 tonight without Steph Curry and are favored by less than 6-points or two possessions. Yes, it's the 'must win' game for Houston to survive but let's look at it this way. The Warriors are clearly one of the top two teams in the league and better in most every category than Oklahoma City who is laying MORE points in Dallas whereas the Mavs are better than the Rockets. Granted, the Thunder are off a loss but there is no way this line should be as low as it is tonight. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating of all the playoff teams (21st) and when you watch James Harden play it's obvious why. Harden and the Rockets are selfish and more concerned about their own personal gains and popularity than they are winning championships. That's why we don't think this 'must win' game means as much to them as the Warriors who are the epitome of a great 'team'. The Warriors were 34-7 on the road this season with a point differential of +7.1PPG which was second best in the NBA behind only San Antonio. Houston was below average in the league in home differentials and were 23-18 on their home court. Despite missing Curry in Game #2 the Warriors were still able to win by 9-points as Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green all stepped up in his absence. The Warriors shoot over 48% as a team on the road whereas the Rockets allow foes to hit 47% of their FG attempts in Houston. Golden State has covered 5 of the last six here and are loaded with enough talent to beat a bad Rockets team that lacks chemistry. Lay it! |
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04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Toronto Raptors (-7.5) over Indiana Pacers, Monday, Game #2 7PM ET - We lost with the Raptors in the opener of this series but have to come right back here with a play on them in Game #2. As we stated in our first analysis the Raptors have the 5th best overall point differential in the NBA and 5th best number at home of +6.6PPG where they were 32-9 SU for the regular season. The big difference between these two clubs is on the offensive end where the Raps ranked 5th in offensive efficiency ratings while the Pacers were 24th. Indiana had a losing road record this season of 19-22 SU and they lost the two regular season meeting here by 7 and 13 points respectively before their 10-point win in the opener. The Pacers were just .500 ATS on the road against teams with winning records while the Raptors were 16-4 ATS at home against winning teams. We look for irregular stats in games and two obvious ones were how well Indiana shot from beyond the arc in Game 1 and how many turnovers the Raptors had, along with how poorly Toronto shot. Indiana hit 11 of 21 3-pointers in the first game of the series for 52.4% which is much higher than their season average of 35.3%. Toronto on the other had shot just 38% overall in the game which was well below their season average or 45%. Lastly, the Raptors turned the ball over 20 times in Game #1 which was really odd considering they were 5th in the NBA in NOT turning it over this season at just 13.2 TO's per game. Toronto was +14 in rebounds and outscored the Pacers by 16-points in the paint which are favorable signs for tonight. Toronto has been very good off a loss this year with a 17-9 SU overall record, 9-2 SU when at home off an 'L' and they've covered 4 straight in that role. Indiana was 12-15 ATS this season on the road off a win and we would expect a letdown here after their upset win in Game 1. Yes, we know the Raptors struggles in the post season but the only way to be this game tonight is by taking the home team with revenge and a do-or-die situation. Lay it. |
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04-17-16 | Blazers v. Clippers -8 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 58 h 8 m | Show |
LA Clippers (-8) over Portland Trailblazers, Sun 9:35PM CT - We like the LA Clippers over the Portland Trailblazers in Game 1 on Sunday. If you read our Efficiency differential article on predicting the NBA Champion this year you’ll know that the Clippers, statistically, are one of a handful of teams that can win it all this year. LA is 7th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency which is much better than the Blazers 6th (OEFF) and 22nd (DEFF) rankings. The Clippers quietly went about their business this season and finished with the 6th best overall point differential (+4.3PPG) and 5th best home point differential of +6.9PPG. LA was 29-12 SU at home this season whereas the Blazers were a poor 16-25 SU on the road. Of all the playoff teams the Blazers have the second worst road point differential of minus -4.1PPG which was 21st worst in the entire NBA. Of all the playoff teams only Memphis has a worst road point differential but they were gutted by injuries all season long. The Clippers won 3 of the four season meetings with the Blazers with those three victories coming by an average of 9PPG. Portland ended the regular season on an 0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS stretch on the road against playoff teams while the Clippers closed the season with a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS mark their last four at home against similar clubs. Dynamically, the Clippers can play ‘small ball’ with the Blazers which makes this a very favorable first round matchup for them. Lay the points with the LA Clippers. |