Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets -6 v. Thunder | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -6 over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - Thunder off a satisfying win over the Grizzlies who had beaten them earlier this season 152-79 and now let down against the rested Nuggets. Denver has been off since the 17th after their game against the Nets was canceled due to covid. It’s not like OKC has a great home court as they are just 5-10 SU at home this year. The Thunder have the 3rd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Nuggets have the 8th best OEFF on the road and should outscore a Thunder offense at home that is 3rd worst in the league at 1.040PPP. Lay it. |
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12-19-21 | Mavs v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have made great strides defensively this season and it’s showing in their record. Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 28th a year ago. The Wolves are averaging 108.7PPG which is 12th best in the NBA and are the 10th best rebounding team. Dallas is 26th in scoring this year and the 24th worst offense rebound team in the NBA. Dallas does hold teams to 104.6PPG this year but a lot of that has to do with how slow they play (3rd slowest in the NBA). The Mavs have the 22nd ranked FG% defense in the league. The Wolves have three impressive wins in a row over Portland, Denver and the Lakers most recently by 18-points. The Mavs are coming off a 3-point loss to that same Lakers team. Lay the points with Minnesota. |
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12-18-21 | Knicks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 over NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - Something isn’t quite right with this number and it looks very much like a trap to bet on the Knicks. So, we’ll side with Boston here minus the points. Granted the Celtics are coming off a game last night, but they also had 3 days off prior to Friday’s action so lack of rest isn’t an issue. The Knicks started the season out hot with a 5-1 SU record in October but since then they’ve struggled with an 8-15 run. In the Knicks most recent nine games they have just 2 wins and they came at the expense of the 9-20 Rockets and 10-17 Spurs. On paper the Celtics look similar to the Knicks with a 1-5 SU record in their last five games but take a look at that schedule. They’ve faced the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, Bucks and Warriors. Those five teams all rank top 9 in defensive efficiency and now the Celtics face a New York team that is 22nd in DEFF. Boston has advantages on the offensive end of the floor with the 13th highest scoring average compared to the Knicks 23rd ranked average. New York beat Boston in October at home by 4 in OT and we like the Celtics to get a measure of revenge here with a double-digit win. |
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12-15-21 | Wizards v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 105-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +2.5 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Kings are coming off a couple road losses and return home where they had won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The Kings held a player only meeting after the recent 3 game road trip and aired some differences regarding effort amongst the team. Now that they are back at home, we expect a much better effort in this one. Washington meanwhile is coming off a tough game in the higher altitude of Denver on Monday night and will be shorthanded again here without Kyle Kuzma who is in Covid protocol. The Wizards opened the season by winning 6 of their first eleven road games but have since lost four of five away from home. Washington has the 21st worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -3.9PPG. If you look at overall season statistics it shows Washington has an advantage defensively but when you focus on their last five games the Kings have the better defensive efficiency numbers. Offensively the Kings have been better all season long and in their most recent five games too at 1.126-points per possession. Sacramento gets it done tonight at home. |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +3 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +3 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Scheduling certainly favors the home team Blazers as the Suns are off a game last night against the Clippers. That’s significant considering the multitude of injuries the Suns currently have with 6 players out including starters Booker and Ayton. Portland has been much better at home than on the road this year with a 10-5 SU season record and four of those losses have come this month. Portland is coming off a home loss as a favorite and primed for this huge Western Conference showdown. This will be the third meeting of the season with the home team winning both and 6 of the last seven meetings. Phoenix has been dominating this season but that is with a full supporting cast. Not tonight. Bet the Blazers. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - I’ll start by saying this, I hate betting on the Lakers as I simply don’t trust them to play hard every night, which is a byproduct of their best player not being the hardest worker in the gym. Tonight I will make an exception as I do feel the Lakers will put forth a maximum effort against the Thunder. OKC has beaten the Lakers twice this season and came from behind in both after trailing by 19 and 26 in each game. Those embarrassing losses should have L.A. focused tonight, not to mention they are coming off a loss last night to Memphis. The Lakers were just a 4-point favorite in Memphis and are now laying just 5-points to the 8-win Thunder. OKC has won two straight, but one of those came at the 4-20 Pistons expense, while the other was against a Raptors team coming off two big wins over Washington and Milwaukee. Prior to their two wins the Thunder had lost 8 straight, two of which came against a bad Rockets team. The Lakers have a slight edge in defensive efficiency and huge advantage offensively as they rank 5th in scoring compared to an OKC team averaging just 99.3PPG which ranks 30th in the NBA. |
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12-08-21 | Celtics v. Clippers -3 | Top | 111-114 | Push | 0 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3 over Boston Celtics, 10:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Celtics who are coming off a marquee game against the Lakers last night and are playing their 4th game in 6 days. The Clippers have had two days off and will be the much fresher team in this match up. The Clippers have underachieved thus far, but they have won 3 of their last four games including a pair of road wins against the Lakers and Blazers. The Celtics are 7-7 SU on the road this season but only 3 of those wins came against a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 40-22 SU their last 62 home games with a +/- differential of plus +5.8PPG. The bet here is the Clippers as a low favorite. |
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12-07-21 | Nets -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - The Mavericks have potential injuries to Luka and Porzingis and even if they do play we like the visiting Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Saturday (which we called) and is very good off a “beat” this season with a 6-0 record. Brooklyn’s James Harden has not shot it well this season but a return to the state of Texas may do wonders for his confidence. Brooklyn is better on both ends of the court in this matchup with the 5th ranked defensive efficiency compared to the Mavericks 18th ranked unit. Offensively the Nets also have the advantage offensively ranking 11th in OEFF compared the Mavs who rank 21st. The Nets are 8-2 SU away from home this season with the 3rd best overall point differential of ++6.7PPG. The Mavs have lost two straight at home to inferior teams and this will be their 3rd. |
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12-05-21 | Jazz -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -4.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:40 PM ET - There is a lot of buzz surrounding the Suns and Warriors as the best teams in the NBA but don’t sleep on this Jazz team. Even though they have 7 losses this season they are 8th in overall defensive efficiency and 1st in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have been a pleasant surprise this season and are doing it on the defensive end of the court with the 3rd best DEFF in the NBA. The difference between these two teams though is on the offensive end of the court where the Cavs rank 18th in OEFF. The Jazz have the best road differential in the NBA this season at +8.4PPG and they’ll win by at least that margin here. |
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings pick’em over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This is an interesting scheduling situation as these two teams just met on December 1st with the Kings winning on the road 124-115. Since then, the Kings have been off and resting while the Clippers are coming off an emotional game against the Lakers last night. L.A. is their 4th game in five nights and the second of a back-to-back so fatigue becomes a factor. In fact, the Clippers are 0-4 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. The Clippers have played a home-heavy schedule this season with 13 of their last 15 played on their home court, the two road games they played in that stretch were losses at New Orleans and Memphis. The Kings are the 7th highest scoring team in the NBA and are capable of scoring with anyone. The Clippers are 19th in scoring and the 20th ranked shooting team in the league. Scheduling favors the Kings here to get a solid home win. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +2 over Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - We are betting value here with the Knicks as a home dog. These two teams met on Nov. 21st in Chicago and the Bulls were favored by -5.5-points and are now laying 2 on the road which doesn’t add up. New York was also just a +4-point dog at home against the Suns who have won 17 straight games. Chicago is off a home win, New York is off a road loss. We expect the revenge minded Knicks to get payback here. The Bulls have failed to cover here in 4 straight visits and are 3-7 ATS the last ten clashes. |
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12-01-21 | Kings v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - This will be a tough spot for the Kings. The Kings are playing their 5th game in 8 days, 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of a B2B. When playing without rest this season the Kings are 1-2 SU/ATS. The Clippers are rested and coming off two straight home losses but one was to the red hot Warriors. On Monday the Clippers were embarrassed at home by the Pelicans. Pels center Valanciunas had a monster 39/15 game. LA is solid off a loss with a 23-19 ATS record, their last 42 in that role with a +6.2PPG differential. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the defensive end of the court where the Clippers rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Kings rank 26th. Also, the Kings are the 25th worst 3-pt shooting team in NBA, Clippers 12th best. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings with the Kings. |
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11-30-21 | Pistons +9 v. Blazers | Top | 92-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Blazers are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Utah and playing their 5th game in seven days. Detroit was off on Monday after playing the L.A. on Sunday. The Pistons have been competitive in their two most recent road games losing by 4-points to the Lakers and 11 to the Clippers. If we look at the Blazers last four home games, all wins, but they took advantage of the Nuggets and 76ers with injuries and barely beat the Bulls and Raptors by 5-points each. Detroit is on a 4-1 ATS streak and continues to be undervalued by the oddmakers. Portland is 2-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -1.3PPG. Grab the points. |
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11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors who are coming off a solid road win, while the Pacers are off a disappointing OT home loss to the Lakers. This will be the Raptors 6th straight road game and they are just 2-4 SU in those recent away games. Indiana is 4-1 SU their last five home games and also 3-1 ATS this season at home when off a loss. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Raptors winning both meetings so we expect the revenge minded Pacers to get a solid home win here. |
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11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 over LA Lakers, 7:35 PM ET - The Lakers will be without LeBron James in this game after he was ejected in the last game against the Pistons. The altercation was the main story from the other night but from our standpoint the issue was the Lakers were trailing the 4-12 Pistons by 15-points entering the 4th quarter. Prior to their win over the Pistons the Lakers had lost 4 straight road games by an average of 13PPG. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA a season ago, but now rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Lakers offense has been even worse ranking 24th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are coming off a disappointing road loss in Chicago in which they led big before late game collapse and a 6-point loss. The Knicks are 11th in offensive efficiency and 17th in DEFF but both of those rankings are better than the Lakers. The Knicks have covered 4 straight at home against LA and are on a 3-0 SU streak when home coming off a loss. |
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11-22-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Bulls as they are off a 5 game West coast road trip, then hosted the Knicks on Sunday night and now must face a rested Pacers team. Indiana is just 2-9 SU on the road this season, but they’ve been in tight games recently and have an average loss margin of -3.6PPG. Chicago is 5-2 SU at home this year with a +/- of 8.8PPG but this isn’t sustainable. The Bulls are better this season, but they were 15-20 SU at home last year with an average Margin of Victory of -1.7PPG. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings and catch the Bulls in a bad spot. Grab the points. |
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11-19-21 | Thunder v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -12.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We can’t add a ton of statistical support to this game as the Bucks have been dealing with several key injuries to start the season with starters Lopez, Middleton, Holiday and Giannis all missing games. Statistically there isn’t support this season but last year the Bucks were 36-11 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.9PPG. OKC was 12-24 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -9.2PPG. Recently the Thunder were just a 9-point home dog to Brooklyn and got beat by 24-points. The line on that game clearly shows us this number on the Bucks at home isn’t out of line. Let’s also consider Milwaukee was just a 9-point home favorite over the Lakers. The Bucks are still without Lopez but everyone else and they won’t be looking past this OKC team with Orlando on deck. Bucks by 20. |
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11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over LA Clippers, 8:10 PM ET - The Clippers are 9-5 SU on the season, but they’ve benefited from playing 10 of those games at home. The Clippers record is very misleading because of the favorable schedule, and they have just 2 wins over teams with a winning record and one of those came against Charlotte who is 9-7. One of LA’s losses this season came at home against this Memphis team 114-120. The young Grizzlies are still trying to figure out how to be more consistent, but they seem to get up for the league’s best teams. Memphis has beaten this Clippers team, the Warriors and Denver twice. LA has a long injury list right now with three key players banged up as Morris, Batum and Mann are on the injured list. Memphis comes into this game rested, off a solid home win and healthy. Our computers has the Grizzlies favored by 3-points in this game so grab the value with Memphis. |
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11-17-21 | Celtics v. Hawks -4 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -4 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - At first glance it looks like it would be hard to bet against the Celtics who are on 7-0 ATS streak but all streaks come to an end. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games – but the 6 spread losses came against some of the league's best teams. @Denver, @Utah, @Golden State, @ Phoenix, Utah and @ Brooklyn. Atlanta came home off that tough West coast trip and drubbed the Bucks by 20 and the Magic by 18 at home. The venue has a lot to do with this wager. The Hawks have the 4th best average point differential at home of +11.9PPG, with a 5-1 record. Last year the Hawks were 25-11 SU at home +6.3PPG. They had the 6th best offensive efficiency numbers at home (1.173PPP) and 13th best home defensive efficiency (1.109PPP). Boston 5-4 SU away this season but were 15-21 SU away from home a year ago with a negative differential of -0.1PPG. The Hawks have covered 23 of their last 27 home games as a favorite and the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. |
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11-15-21 | Pacers v. Knicks -3 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3 over Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This sets up nicely for a bet on the Knicks as they are off a disappointing loss at Charlotte in which they led big but blew it late for an 8-point loss. That was Friday night so they are well rested going into this home game. Indiana on the other hand is in a tough scheduling situation as they played 4 west coast games, came home, got a big win over Philadelphia and now go back on the road to face the Knicks. New York has covered 6 of their last eight when playing on 2 days rest and have covered 13 of the last 19 meetings with the Pacers in the Big Apple. We like the small home favorite here in New York to get back on track with a solid home win. |
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11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - Let’s get this out of the way immediately, the Blazers haven’t won a road game this season 0-6. But the young Rockets have just one win on the season with a 1-10 SU record. Houston has the 5th worst average differential of minus -7.5PPG whereas Portland is +0.9PPG. Portland is far superior offensively with the 7th best offensive efficiency rating compared to the Rockets who rank 27th. Defensively these two teams are similar with Houston ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and Portland 23rd. The Blazers are off two tough road losses against a pair of the best teams in the West and step way down in talent here against the Rockets. Besides their lone home win of the season over a bad OKC team, the Rockets have lost every other home game by 8 or more points. Portland gets a big road win here. |
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11-10-21 | Bucks v. Knicks -3 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks -3 over Milwaukee Bucks 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks benefit from rest while the Bucks are off a game last night in Philly and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Bucks are shorthanded without Middleton and Lopez out of the lineup and the lack of rest is magnified here. Milwaukee is 4-6 SU on the season and not playing well right now with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings 18th or worse. In comparison, the Bucks were the #1 DEFF team a year ago and 6th in OEFF. New York is 3rd in offensive efficiency this season and have improved dramatically on that end of the court. The Bucks struggled to beat a shorthanded 76ers team on Tuesday night and now face a Knicks team that beat them by 15 points in Milwaukee on Nov 5th. Milwaukee is on a 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest and New York has won 3 of the last four meetings. The bet here is the Knicks as a short favorite. |
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11-09-21 | Hawks v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 98-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 9:10 PM ET - Atlanta is coming off a big game in Golden State last night while Utah is rested but off two straight losses. The Jazz beat the Hawks last week in Atlanta by 18-points but then lost in Miami and then suffered an embarrassing loss at Orlando. In their previous meeting the Jazz beat Atlanta handily without their best player Donovan Mitchell. Atlanta comes into this game playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. The Hawks are 6-10-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. The Jazz have the 3rd best overall Margin of Victory average this year at +9.1PPG, which improves to +13PPG at home. Given the scheduling we won’t be scared off by this number and will back the home team minus the points. |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 8-1 SU while the Hawks are a disappointing 4-6 SU. A major factor in those results are the strength of schedule for both teams as the Warriors have played the 28th easiest schedule, while the Hawks have faced the 8th toughest. In their last six games the Hawks have faced Phoenix, Utah, Brooklyn, Washington twice and Philadelphia. They are coming off a loss Saturday in Phoenix by 4 as a +3.5-point dog. In comparison the Warriors last four wins have come against Houston, New Orleans, Charlotte and OKC who are a combined 10-30 SU and none have a winning record. Despite the tough schedule the Hawks have a negative differential of -2.2PPG which will get us a cover here. Golden State is coming off a game last night and will be playing their 3rd in four days. Golden State was 6-9 ATS last season when playing without rest with a negative differential of -5PPG. Easy call with the Hawks here. |
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11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat -6 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - Miami continues to play at a very high level while Boston is not. The Heat are 6-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in OT in Indiana. Miami has the highest average point differential in the NBA at +16.7PPG, are 2nd in both offensive and defensive efficiency and enjoy a scheduling advantage of being off last night. Boston on the other hand is 19th in defensive efficiency and 21st in offensive efficiency with the 21st worst average point differential in the league. The Celtics are also coming off a game last night. Boston has 3 wins on the season and two of those have come against Houston and Orlando who a combined 3-13 SU this season. The Heat are on a 5-0 spread run while Boston is 0-5 ATS their last five as a road dog. Back the better team, laying a marginal number at home against an over-rated opponent. |
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11-03-21 | Hornets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 92-114 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - If I gave you one guess who the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is you’ll probably say Golden State. That’s a good guess, but the answer is actually the Charlotte Hornets at 41.1%. The Hornets are the highest scoring team in the league at 117.5PPG and look a little like the Warriors of old. Don’t get me wrong, the Warriors are still a upper echelon team but they’ve won a few close games with their of their wins this season coming by 8 points or less. Charlotte has quality wins this season against Portland and Brooklyn and are more than capable of winning this game outright. Last season these two teams played a pair of tight contests with the Warriors winning by 9 at home and Charlotte winning by 2 on their floor. The Hornets have covered 4 straight when coming off a loss and we’ll back them here with the points. |
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11-02-21 | Kings v. Jazz -9 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Sacramento King, 9:10 PM ET - At first glance you might think this is a high number but in reality, it’s low based on their meeting on October 22nd when the Jazz were favored by 6-points in Sacramento. Utah won that game by 9-points. Utah is 5-1 SU on the season with the 2nd best average margin of victory at +12.8PPG. The Kings are 3-3 SU with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. These two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency, but the Jazz are far superior in terms of defensive efficiency as they rank 3rd while the Kings are 25th. The Kings have matchup issues here as they’ve lost 5 straight to Utah with last year’s three wins coming by 22, 49 and 16-points. Lay the points with Utah. |
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11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #542 Atlanta Hawks -5.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from last week when the Wizards beat the Hawks by 11-points in Washington. The interesting part of that games is the fact that the Hawks were -4-points IN Washington and are now laying -5.5-points here. The Hawks shot 55% in the game but the Wiz made 8 more free throws and 7 more 3-pointers. Atlanta then followed up that loss with a horrible showing against the Sixers and a 28-point loss. Back at home we like the Hawks to get a measure of revenge here against Washington. The Hawks are 2-0 at home this year with a 18-point and 26-point win. Atlanta was 25-11 SU last year at home with the 8th best average margin of victory at +6.3PPG. Washington is 17-22 SU their last 39 on the road. Expect a big game out of Trae Young and cast at home. Lay it! |
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10-27-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game in the East between two teams that could contend at seasons end. Brooklyn is clearly led by the two-headed monster of Harden and Durant but they miss Kyrie and his playmaking ability. The Heat added Kyle Lowry in the offseason to pair with Jimmy Butler and Adebayo to get over the hump. Miami has gotten great play from Tyler Herro off the bench who gives them a legitimate scorer with the second unit. The Nets are 2-2 SU on the season and were just a -5.5-point favorite at home over Washington, who isn’t at the same level of this Heat team. Miami could easily be 3-0 this season as their lone loss came in OT at the Pacers. The Heat blew out the Bucks earlier this season while the Nets lost in Milwaukee. Brooklyn isn’t anything special as a home favorite with a 19-17 ATS record since the start of last season. Miami was a top 10 defensive team a year ago while Brooklyn was a bottom 10 team. Give me the dog and points here. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Saturday, 9:05 PM ET - I have to admit how hilarious the national media is and how they are so quick to overreact to the most recent or current events. After winning Games 1 and 2 of the series the pundits couldn’t stop praising the Suns and anointing them as the next NBA Champion. Those same “experts” are now saying the Bucks are two games away from winning the Finals. This series is 2-2 with the home team winning all four games and we are betting that trend continues here. The Suns were dominating at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and the 3rd best average margin of victory at +8.9PPG. Phoenix is 8-2 SU at home in the playoffs with an average differential of +9PPG. Phoenix is 17-5 AT their last 22 home games versus quality teams or teams with a winning record. The Suns have also covered 10 of their last fourteen games as a favorite. Phoenix is 9-2 SU at home when coming off a loss and we predict a bounce back here by the home team. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Thurs July 1st 8:30 PM ET - The line on this game obviously tells us who Vegas wants everyone to bet and that’s the underdog Hawks, but we won’t bite. Milwaukee loses 2-time MVP Giannis to a knee injury in the last game, yet the Bucks are still favored at home. We’ve seen this time and time again and most recently in the last game of this series, when a team loses a Super Star, a role player steps up. In Game 4 the Hawks were without Trae Young and Lou Williams stepped up for the injured star with 21-points on 7 of 9 shooting along with dishing out 8-assists. The Bucks still have capable weapons in Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton and in this situation we expect one of them to step up in the absence of Giannis and have a big game. The Bucks got off to a slow start again in Game 4 but expect them to play much better at home were they were 26-10 SU during the regular season with a +7.7PPG differential. In the playoffs the Bucks have the 4th best overall average point differential at +5.5PPG and they have won 12 of 18 home games this season when coming off a loss. The contrarian bet here is to take the Bucks. |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +1 over LA Clippers Game 6 Wednesday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 5 but it came at a herculean price as starters logged exhausting minutes which makes them a “play against” here. Paul George put up a huge 41-point night, but the minutes are starting to add up. George has played more minutes than anyone in the post season and it’s not even close. Marcus Morris Sr. had a great game last time out but at times looked like he could barely job back defensively. The Clippers as a whole shot 55% which is well above their season average of 48.2%. As a team the Suns shot 45% in the last game after shooting just 39% and 36% in the previous two games. Phoenix opened this series with 55% and 50% games. Phoenix is 18-7 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 6. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5 over LA Clippers, Game 5 Monday - We are betting this series ends tonight and the Suns advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers don’t have enough weapons without Leonard and its obvious to see they are wearing down. Neither team shot well in the last game but the Suns have more options than the Clippers do and we expect them to bounce back at home with a much better shooting night. L.A. has some solid numbers when playing off a loss this season but that was with Kawhi in the lineup. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS when coming off a win and have won 10 of their last eleven games overall. 5 of the Suns six home wins in the playoffs have all come by more than today’s spread and our models predict a double-digit win here. |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Sunday 8:35 PM ET - We are not going to overreact to the Bucks blowout win in Game 2 and get suckered into betting a bad number in Game 3. The Bucks were just favored by 8-points at home in a must win situation and are now laying 4.5-points on the road? The natural swing here should have this game as a pick’em. Not only that, but the line on this game also opened with Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite and a large volume of tickets have come in on the Bucks yet the line dropped. The Bucks have lost three road playoff games this postseason and the Hawks have won 14 of their last sixteen at home, which included a win over this Bucks team in the regular season. Atlanta doesn’t have great year long statistics as they suffered from a slow start, yet they still have the 8th best home court point differential at +6.3PPG. In the end this comes down to grabbing the extra value with Atlanta at home. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 2 8:35 PM ET Friday - This is basically the elimination game of this series as the Bucks can’t afford to go down 0-2 to start the Eastern Conference finals. I’ve said it before and will say it again, Coach Budenholzer for Milwaukee needs to be fired ASAP as his team continually underperforms despite the talent advantage. Even with Bud we like the Bucks to get this home win by a substantial margin. After watching film, the Bucks will make adjustments and switch screens involving Trae Young and not allow him to get free for easy floaters in the lane (48-points on 17 of 34 shooting in Game 1). Young was a big reason why the Hawks shot 49% for the game which will be tough to duplicate against the Bucks 5th best field goal percentage defense. Milwaukee had an off-shooting night by hitting just 8 of 36 three-pointers which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 38.9% (5th best in NBA). We are betting Khris Middleton will have a much better shooting night than his 0-9 performance in the opener. Milwaukee is 31-11 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.1PPG. The bet is the Bucks to bounce back here with a double-digit win. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 1 Wednesday 8:35 PM ET - We will start by saying this, the Hawks are playing outstanding right now and head coach Nate McMillan has guided this team to a level of play many didn’t think possible. But the situation warrants a bet on the Bucks who are more rested, been here before and have the two best players on the floor in Giannis and Middleton. Trae Young has been great but he’s not on that level yet and also is a little banged up with a bad shoulder. The Hawks are also concerned with Bogdanovic who played just 21 minutes and scored 4-points in their Game 7 win over Philly. Atlanta is coming off two very physically demanding series against the Knicks and 76ers and will suffer a letdown here. Milwaukee just beat the best team in the East in Brooklyn and have a roster than can win it all this season. The Bucks have the best offense in the NBA and currently the #1 ranked defensive efficiency number in the playoffs allowing just 1.032-points per possession. We know the Bucks Achilles-heel is their 3-point defense which ranks near the bottom of the NBA, but the Hawks shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc which ranks them 12th. Milwaukee was 26-10 SU at home this season with the 5th best average point differential of +7.7PPG and they’ve gone 5-0 at home in the playoffs at +13PPG. The future games of this series may be much closer but we expect a blowout in Game 1 by the Bucks |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET – Game 5 Wednesday - The 76ers find themselves in a battle for the East from an unexpected round two opponent in the Hawks but tonight they flex their muscle in a convincing home win. In Game 4 the 76ers lost by just 3-points despite Joel Embiid going 4 for 20 from the field and 0-12 in the second half. So despite a horrible showing by Embiid the Sixers still had a chance to steal a road win in Atlanta. Philly is 16-9 SU off a loss this season and 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. Philadelphia has a +8.9 average point differential at home this season which is the second-best number in the NBA. When playing at home and coming off a loss the 76ers had an average winning margin of +14PPG in their last nine games in that situation during the regular season. The bet here is Philly in a double-digit home win. |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - This number is the second highest the Nets have been as a dog this season at home and even without Kyrie and Harden they are the bet here. KD can obviously carry a team himself and back at home we expect the reserves to step up. Let’s not forget Joe Harris was bordering an All-Star level of play before the Super Star additions and he’s more than capable of filling it up from beyond the Arc. Let’s face it, Brooklyn 33-8 SU at home this season and a majority of those wins came without one of the Big 3 playing. The Nets were 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and they’ll find a way to keep this one close throughout. |
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06-14-21 | Jazz +5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5 over LA Clippers, Game 4 Monday 10 PM ET - Before the playoffs started, we felt the Jazz were the best team in the West and our opinion hasn’t changed even though the Suns look outstanding. Utah had the most wins during the regular season at 52 and are 6-2 SU in the playoffs. Utah had a +9.2PPG differential (1st) overall and the best margin of victory on the road too at +5.3PPG. The Jazz ranked top seven in both road offensive and defensive efficiency. The Clippers are obviously a good team with star power in George and Leonard, but they haven’t been unbeatable at home with three losses in the opening round to Dallas. In Game 3 the Clippers shot well above their season averages at 56% overall and 53% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages of 48% and 41%. Not to mention the Jazz are the 2nd best field goal percentage defense in the NBA. The Clippers have just one cover in their last nine games when coming off a double-digit win while the Jazz are 16-5 SU off a loss, 8-4 on the road. Grab the points and the underdog here. |
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06-12-21 | Jazz +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-132 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +4.5 over LA Clippers, Game 3 Saturday 8:25PM ET Yes, we are going to ignore the zig-zag theory here and bet the overall better team in the Jazz. Utah was the best team in the NBA all season long and have flown under the radar because of a late season injury to Donovan Mitchell but they are clearly in top form now. Speaking of Mitchell, the Clippers have no answer for him right now as he’s put up 45 and 37-points in the first two games of this series. The Clippers were built for a Championship, but they are missing a piece or two and the dynamic duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard aren’t enough. Utah is 35-6 SU on the road this season and had the best road point differential in the league at +5.3PPG, the 7th best offensive efficiency and the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers when away from home. Examining the previous meetings this season we see the Jazz have won and covered 4 of five and the lone loss was by 4-points. Let’s not forget the Clippers lost three home games in the last round to the Mavericks so they are not unbeatable on their home floor. Back the better team and the grab the points. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +1.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Friday 7:35 PM ET - The home crowd will be rocking in Atlanta tonight when the Hawks look to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Atlanta has been fantastic since head coach Nate McMillan took over with a 27-11 SU record and have improved in all areas of their game. The Hawks were 25-11 SU at home during the regular season with the 8th best average margin of victory at home of +6.3PPG. Atlanta has the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 13th best defensive efficiency. The 76ers defensive efficiency numbers have been good at home and on the road where they rank 3rd overall but offensively their road efficiency is 1.106-points per possession which ranks 19th. We don’t expect Seth Curry and Shake Milton having incredible shooting nights by coming to go 9 of 11 from beyond the 3-point line as they did at home in Game 2. The Hawks have covered 6 straight at home against the Sixers and we are betting it’s 7 in a row after tonight. |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30 PM ET - The Suns got a solid 17-point win in the opener and were the much better team on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets may have the best player on the floor in MVP Jokic, but the Suns depth and balance is the difference. Phoenix had four players score 20+ points in Game 1 with the team shooting over 54% from the field and 38% from beyond the Arc. Without Jamal Murray the Nuggets lack their best playmaker off the bounce and forces Denver to rely too heavily on Jokic. The longer, more athletic Ayton held Jokic to 22-points in the opener and defensively could be the difference in this series. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five as a favorite and had the 4th best average home point differential in the league this season of +8.9PPG. The Nuggets second best scorer Porter Jr is listed as questionable tonight and not 100% which only magnifies Denver’s lack of scoring here. Lay the points in Game 2. |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s not forget the 76ers were the best team in the East all season long and have a MVP level player in Joel Embiid and a Hall of Fame coach in Doc Rivers. Granted, Embiid isn’t 100% but he wasn’t in Game 1 either and he put up 39-points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Philadelphia is going to bounce back here against a young Atlanta team that will let down after their Game 1 win. Both teams shot extremely well in the opener, but the difference was the Hawks 20 made 3-pointers to the 76ers 10. Those numbers are startling considering both teams are top 10 in 3-point percentage defense and rank 11th and 12th in 3-point shooting offensively. The 76ers are 6th in points allowed per game this season and 4th in overall field goal percentage defense. Philadelphia was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season while the Hawks were 21st. Atlanta does hold a slight edge offensively with the 8th best offense efficiency rating, but Philly is 13th. The Hawks were just +2-point dogs at New York which makes tonight’s line a bargain with a much better Sixers team that is off a loss. These teams met in late April in Philly with the 76ers dominating in a 44-point (no Trae Young) and 22-point (w/Trae Young) home wins. The 76ers had the second-best home point differential in the NBA this season at +8.9PPG and were 29-7 SU on their home court this season. Philly was 14-9-1 ATS off a loss this season at 10-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. In their last eleven home games when coming off a loss the 76ers are 10-1 SU with an average margin of victory of 13PPG. This game has all the makings of a pointspread blowout. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This has been a strange series with the road team winning all five matchups. The Clippers are facing elimination here and will put forth a monster effort to extend this series. In Game 5 Luke Doncic followed up a horrible outing in Game 4 with a huge game for the Mavericks with 42 points and 14 assists. Despite Luka playing a near flawless game the Clippers still had a chance to win that game late. Odds are he can’t have another game as good as that against one of the better defensive teams in the league (Clippers rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113PPP). Let’s not forget the Mavs were 17th in the league in average point differential at +0.3PPG while the Clippers had the second best road differential at +4.3PPG. L.A. is 8-2 ATS the last ten meetings in Dallas and are 19-9 SU off a loss this season. The Clippers are 10-4 SU (9-5 ATS) when playing on the road and off a loss. Obviously a very big game for both teams but Kawhi and Paul George will lift the Clippers to a win and cover. |
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06-01-21 | Lakers +5 v. Suns | Top | 85-115 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +5 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - It’s clear LeBron can’t carry a team to a championship by himself anymore which is why he recruited Anthony Davis to come to Los Angeles in the first place but he’s got enough help to keep this critical game 5 close. After a loss in game 1 the Lakers benefited from some favorable calls and went to the free throw line 31 times on the road which is abnormal. All four games have been very low scoring which makes the points even more attractive. Yes, the Lakers are without AD but they’ve gone from being a 2-point road favorite in Game 2 to being a 5-point dog here? That’s too much of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Lakers have been profitable off a loss with a 17-13-1 ATS record this season and a majority of those covers came without key players in the lineup. Los Angeles has covered 4 in a row when off a loss. Phoenix has their own injury concerns and Chris Paul is clearly not 100% with a shoulder injury. The Lakers improve on their 5-2 ATS record in Phoenix with a close game tonight. |
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05-31-21 | 76ers -8 v. Wizards | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - There has been an adjustment by the oddsmakers here but we don’t feel it’s enough and we’re betting the 76ers end this series today with a resounding win. After a close game (7-point Philly win) in Game 1 the Sixers have crushed the Wizards in two straight games by 25 and 29-points respectively. Washington had the 3rd highest scoring average (116PPG) in the NBA on the season, but the stifling Philly defense has held them to 95 and 103 points in the previous two games. Washington is just 10 of 57 from beyond the arc in Games 2 & 3. The Wiz have no answer for Joel Embiid who is 31 of 46 from the field in the three games thus far. Washington is the worst overall efficiency team in the playoffs and the Sixers have exposed their lack of depth beyond Westbrook and Beal. Teams that lead a playoff series 3-0 have won 60% of the time and we can’t see a Washington team that didn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (19th in home point differential) this season to make this a contest. Washington just 9-14 SU at home off a loss. Lay it with Philly. |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET - We are betting the Celtics won’t have the offensive explosion in this game that they had in the previous one. After scoring 93 and 108 points in the first two games of this series on 37% and 42% shooting, the Celtics exploded for 125 in Game 3. Boston shot 51% for the game and 41% from beyond the arc which are well above their season averages. Jayson Tatum will have a tough time duplicating his 50-point performance as the Nets will make adjustments here to limit his offensive production. Boston could also be without their second best offensive option with Kemba Walker who is listed as questionable, but we are assuming he plays. After a pair of double-digit wins in the first two games we expect the Nets to rebound off that embarrassing loss with a big win here. The Nets were 15-9 SU off a loss this season and have covered 7 of their last eight games overall. Boston is just 1-6 ATS their last seven games when coming off a win. Back the elite team here off a loss. |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 4 PM ET - With the Blazers at home and off a loss we like them to get a double-digit win in Game 4. When we examine Game 3 we find several anomalies that directly impacted the end result and the Nuggets win. Denver shot 53% from Downtown, making 20 of 38 3-pointers. That’s a stat line you’d typically find for Portland who shot just 31% from beyond the Arc (14 of 45). Denver also made 11 more free throws than Portland who typically attempt 21+ FT’s per game. As we talked about in our last analysis on this series Portland typically gets it done offensively by shooting 3’s while Denver relies on 2’s. Portland is the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and attempt the 5th most 3’s in the NBA. Over the last ten games of the regular season the red hot Blazers had the best offensive efficiency at 1.241PPP with an average differential of +11.6PPG. In their last ten games the Nuggets were average or below in those same two offensive categories. Portland has covered 7 of their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better while Denver is 1-4 ATS their last five road games against an opponent with a winning record. |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:35 PM ET - This is a great series and would be even better if Jamaal Murray was healthy for the Nuggets but unfortunately, he is out for the season. With the Blazers returning home we like them to get a double-digit win in Game 3. The difference here is the depth of Portland who can get scoring from several players including Lillard, McCollum, Melo, Nurkic and even Powell. Portland gets it done offensively by shooting 3’s while Denver relies on 2’s. Portland is the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and attempt the 5th most 3’s in the NBA. Both teams have shot well in each game but when you’re making 3’s over 2’s you’re going to win. Over the last ten games of the regular season the red hot Blazers had the best offensive efficiency at 1.241PPP with an average differential of +11.6PPG. In their last ten games the Nuggets were average or below in those same two offensive categories. Portland has covered 7 of their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better while Denver is 0-4 ZTS their last four road games against an opponent with a winning record. The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this number enough based on the first two games and the value lies with Portland at home. |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -9 | Top | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA for the entire season but are flying under the radar right now because of moderate play late in the season. Utah finished the season 52-20 SU with the best average point differential of plus +9.2PPG which is a full 3-points better than second place L.A. Clippers. The Jazz are 3rd in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and clearly the best team in the NBA statistically. Late in the season the Jazz played without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and their victories weren’t as impressive which has given us value here. Memphis is coming off three very big wins just to get here as they held off the Spurs in the playoff game then went on the road and beat a weary Warriors team in OT, then upset Utah in Game 1. This young Memphis team was 6th in DEFF this season but 15th in OEFF with a point differential of +1PPG which was league average. Memphis is just 2-7 ATS their last eight when coming off a win. The Grizzlies Utah was a remarkable 31-6 SU at home this year and won those games by +13.2PPG. Uncharacteristically, the Jazz shot just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 1 which is much lower than their 4th best season average of 39%. Not to mention the Grizzlies 3-point percentage defense is 18th worse in the NBA. Utah is 15-2 SU, 7-1 at home when coming off a loss. Utah was reportedly getting Donovan Mitchell back for the last game but he was a late scratch after warming up. He is expected to play tonight which will give Utah an edge mentally and physically. |
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05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 10:35 PM ET - This is a great opportunity to bet an elite team off an embarrassing loss. The Clippers were eliminated early from the playoffs last year and were just upset as a home favorite in Game 1 of this series. If there is any game, they “show up” for it’s this one. The Mavs had a perfect storm in Game 1 with 50% shooting overall and 47% from beyond the arc. Dallas shoots just 46% on the season and 36.5% from the 3-point line. Not only that, but the Clippers defense was also 13th best shooting defense in the NBA, 6th in 3-point percentage D. The Clippers had a poor shooting night in the opener which is surprising considering they were the 5th best overall shooting team in the NBA and the best 3-point percentage. Especially, considering the Mavs defense wasn’t particularly good defending opponents shooting (13th overall, 18th 3PT%). The Clippers are d18-8 SU off a loss this year and 9-4 SU at home off a beat. Los Angeles was 26-10 SU at home during the regular season and won those games by an average of +8PPG. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS the last thirteen meetings with the Mavs and in this situation they get a resounding home win. |
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05-24-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:35 PM ET - This series is going to be a dogfight from start to finish and we like the points with Miami here. The Heat were covering for 99% of Game 1 and the Bucks largest spread differential was +1.5PPG, and they did it with their two best offensive players (Butler & Adebayo) having off nights. Butler and Adebayo combined to shoot just 8 of 37 from the field for 26-total points. If we get anywhere near an average game from both, it will lead to an easy cover if not a win outright. The big separator last year when these two teams played was coaching. Heat coach Spoelstra will make adjustment and Bucks coach Budenholzer will not. These two teams are near even when it comes to defensive efficiency ratings, but the Bucks have the season long advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency. In their last ten games though the Heat have the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.218-points per possession. Miami has covered 4 of the last five meetings in Milwaukee and they’ll keep this game close throughout again. Grab the points. |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -8.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:35 PM ET - The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA for the entire season but are flying under the radar right now because of moderate play late in the season. Utah finished the season 52-20 SU with the best average point differential of plus +9.2PPG which is a full 3-points better than second place L.A. Clippers. The Jazz are 3rd in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and clearly the best team in the NBA statistically. Late in the season the Jazz played without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and their victories weren’t as impressive which has given us value here. Memphis is coming off two very big wins just to get here as they held off the Spurs in the playoff game then went on the road and beat a weary Warriors team in OT. This young Memphis team was 6th in DEFF this season but 15th in OEFF with a point differential of +1PPG which was league average. Memphis is just 1-7 ATS their last eight when coming off a win. Utah was a remarkable 31-5 SU at home this year and won those games by +13.2PPG and a fully healthy Jazz team get a double-digit win here. |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9 PM ET - There is a lot we can talk about here when it comes to breaking down numbers and statistics but in the end the team with the best player is going to advance and that is the Warriors. Steph Curry has put together a MVP type season (if I had a vote if would go to Jokic) and has lifted this Golden State team to the next level. The Warriors are 15-6 SU their last 21 games and their average differential in those games is +8.7PPG. One concern we have in this game is with the Warriors coming off such a huge emotional game against the Lakers, but Golden State is 11-2 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Clearly home court and having fan support is a factor right now in the NBA play in games as the home teams have won every game. Memphis looked like they were going to bury the Spurs early on the other night, but they’ve made a habit of blowing leads this season and the game finished much closer than it should have. These teams have similar overall efficiency numbers on the season but down the stretch the Warriors have been much better than the Grizzlies. Memphis is just 1-7 ATS their last eight games when coming off a win and Golden State’s 6-0 spread run goes to seven after tonight. |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - This is clearly the marquee matchup of the start of the playoffs with LeBron/AD facing off against Steph Curry. The difference is the Lakers have many more weapons than Golden State right now and several capable defenders to continually throw at Curry. Between Schroder, Pope and Caruso they can rotate fresh bodies at Curry and keep him in check. If Curry isn’t “cooking” the Warriors have a tough time scoring, especially with Kelly Oubre Jr out of the lineup. The Lakers dealt with the injuries to LBJ and AD but both are back which led to the Lakers winning 5 straight to close the season and that included a pair of quality wins over the Knicks and Suns. The Warriors were red hot to close out the season with 5 straight wins of their own and 8 of their last ten. Five of the Warriors last eight wins though came against teams that didn’t qualify for the postseason. In fact, nine of the Warriors last fifteen wins have come against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. Golden State has a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but the Lakers hold the edge in terms of defensive efficiency. The Lakers have a healthy LeBron, Schroder and Anthony Davis along with newly acquired Andre Drummond which makes them a much more diverse team and too much for the Warriors to overcome. Lay the points with the Lakers. |
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05-15-21 | Hornets +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over NY Knicks, 1 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to win here as they jockey for positioning in the East and we expect a close game throughout with the Hornets cashing in as a sizable underdog. New York just clinched their first playoff spot in a long time and will be a dangerous team in the postseason. Charlotte has a young exciting cast but won’t be a viable team in the East for years to come. New York has the 10th best average margin of victory in the NBA at home this season of +4PPG which obviously doesn’t get a cover in this matchup. The Knicks rely on a stellar defense but struggle offensively with the 15th ranked home offensive efficiency in the Garden. Charlotte has the 23rd ranked road differential in the NBA but it’s less than today’s spread at -3.5PPG. New York is 3-0 ATS this season when favored by 5 or more points but this is clearly an unfamiliar role for them has it’s happened just three times this season. These two teams have split this season but Charlotte has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Expect a playoff like intensity by both teams today and a close game that goes down to the wire. |
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05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - We went against the Blazers last night and lost but will go right back to the well here with a wager on the Suns. Portland has been better on the road this season but going back to 2018 they are 56-62 SU with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. Phoenix is 26-9 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory at +9.2PPG. The Suns have won 13 of their last fourteen home games and have three straight solid wins over other playoff teams (beat Knicks by 23, Jazz by 21 and Clippers by 8). The Suns have been especially good when coming off a loss this season with a 16-5 SU record, 8-2 at home. After a pair of disappointing losses, we like the Suns to get a double-digit win against a Blazers team coming off a huge road win last night and playing unrested. |
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05-10-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 125-146 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over San Antonio, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs are fighting for their playoff lives but the Bucks still have an outside shot at the #1 seed in the East. Milwaukee has gotten it going with a five-game winning streak which includes a pair of wins over the Brooklyn Nets. Milwaukee is 19-14 SU on the road this season, but they have the 2nd best average margin of victory in the league at +5PPG. In their last seven road games the Bucks average MOV is +11.2PPG. The Spurs last home game came against the 76ers and they were a +10-point dog in that game and the difference in this number is too high. San Antonio is 13-20 SU at home this season with the 24th worst differential at minus -3.1PPG. These two teams have similar defensive numbers but the Bucks #1 scoring, 3rd best shooting is far superior to the Spurs offense that ranks 20th in PPG scored and is 20th in FG%. The Spurs 2-5 losing ATS home streak continues here. |
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05-09-21 | Knicks +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +7.5 over LA Clippers, 3:30PM ET The Knicks have been a great surprise this season and will be a dangerous draw come playoff time. The Clippers are one of a few teams that can certainly win it all this season. New York has the 13th best road differential in the NBA at +0.4PPG even though they have a losing overall record. They have rewarded their backers with a current 11-3 ATS run their last fourteen road games. New York has also been solid off a loss recently with a 4-1 ATS streak. New York relies on their defense which is one of the best in the NBA allowing just 1.081-points per possession on the road this year, 3rd best in the NBA. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers are 26-9 SU at home this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +8.5PPG but winning by that margin will be tough today. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS their last six games as a favorite, 3-3 SU. The Clippers are off a big win over the Lakers and New York is off a bad loss. Grab the points with New York. |
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05-08-21 | Nets -4 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4 over Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that grabbed our attention was the line. Consider this, why are the Nuggets this big of a home dog and why is Brooklyn laying the same spread as they were in Dallas a few nights ago? The answer is obvious, they want us to bet Denver and we won’t fall into that trap. In fact, it’s showing in the betting markets as more money and tickets have come in on the Nuggets yet the line has fluctuated up slightly. Brooklyn is in a battle in the East with Milwaukee for the best overall record and come into this game having lost four straight games which gives us extra motivation here. The Nuggets on the other hand are in a bad scheduling situation as they are off a HUGE game last night with Utah and now play without rest in the higher altitude of Denver. Brooklyn as a small favorite has been “money” this season with a 11-2 ATS record when laying 4.5 or less points. Denver on the other hand has struggled as a small dog in this same price range with a 4-8 ATS record. Denver has a long list of injuries to key contributors which makes playing without rest that much more difficult. Granted the Nets don’t have Harden yet but they still have Kyrie and KD which will be more than enough to get this much need road win by a decent margin. Bet the Nets with confidence! |
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05-06-21 | Nets -3 v. Mavs | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - The Nets are off 3 straight losses, two of which came against the Bucks in Milwaukee. Brooklyn is a team capable of winning it all this season with or without James Harden and we can’t say the same for Dallas. The Mavs have put together a very good season overall but this is a great spot to play against them. Dallas is coming off a solid road win in Miami where they shot ridiculously well at 53% overall and made 22 of 48 3-pointers. We expect a return to their season averages of 47% overall and 36% from beyond the arc. Dallas is just 4-5 SU their last nine home games and have the 19th worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -1.1PPG. Brooklyn on the other hand have the 9th best road point differential in the league at +2.5PPG. The Nets are 14-8 SU this season off a loss and we like them to get a 6+ point win here. |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from the other day when the Bucks beat the Nets at home 117-114. The Bucks got 49-points from Antetokounmpo in the win while Brooklyn relied on Kevin Durant who scored 42. The difference was a bad shooting night by the Nets as they hit just 43% from the field while the Bucks shot 49%. Obviously, there was that big of a discrepancy in shooting, yet the Bucks only won by 3-points. Brooklyn is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 49.2% so expect a return to normal tonight. The Nets are 7-3 ATS their last ten as a road dog and have covered 4 of their last five following a loss. As a favorite of 7-points or less the Bucks are 10-17 ATS this season, the Nets as a dog in that same price range are 10-6 ATS. Kyrie Irving had a relatively quiet night the other night and we expect a much better showing from him and the Nets here. Bet the revenge minded Nets. |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -2 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2 over Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - There is no denying the Blazers are clicking right now but this is a great spot to fade them due to scheduling. Not only is Portland coming off a BIG win yesterday over Boston, they are playing their 5th game in seven days. Atlanta though had a day off and were at home the previous game so they are rested and didn’t have to travel. The Hawks are 9-3 ATS when playing with 1 day rest. If you look at the Hawks recent games they played several without Clint Capela, Trae Young or both but they are in the lineup tonight. Atlanta has won and covered 5 straight at home with quality wins against the Bucks, Pacers and Heat. Atlanta is 13-3 ATS their last 16 as a home favorite and they get a solid home win here. |
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04-30-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 140-143 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams have plenty to play for as the Spurs are fighting for an “at large bid” and a chance to play in, while the Celtics are trying to lock in a top 6 seed which would keep them out of the play in games. San Antonio is playing well right now with 5 wins in their last seven games and a couple of those victories were impressive as they beat a red-hot Wizards team and the Phoenix Suns. Conversely, the Celtics are 2-4 SU their last six games and two of those loses came against two of the league’s weakest teams in Charlotte, and Oklahoma City. The Spurs are coming off a tough loss in Miami, but they’ve cashed 80% in this situation as they are 8-2 ATS on the road off a loss. Boston is coming off a 9-point win over Charlotte as a -6.5-point favorite which also contributes to our prediction here as the C’s are 7-15-1 ATS their last 23 when coming off a win. This game shapes up to be a tight affair which has us on the Underdog plus the points. |
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04-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -4 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This game has been marked on our calendar since these teams last met and we were hoping this line would come out as low as it has so we could play on the Suns. There is some “bad blood” between these two teams with hard fouls, technical and ejections occurring in the previous two meetings. The last time these rivals met the Clippers held on to win at home 113-103. Kawhi Leonard, who is out here, poured in 27-points, grabbed 5 rebounds and had 5 assists for the Clippers. L.A. is also without Beverly who would typically “dog” either Chris Paul or Devin Booker in this matchup. These two teams are right behind the Jazz in the standings and both would love the #1 seed in the West. Phoenix has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA with a 23-9 SU record and the third best average margin of victory of +8.4PPG. The Suns have the 5th best offensive efficiency at home, 4th best DEFF at home. The Clippers have solid road differentials but they haven’t been as good defensively on the road ranking 12th in defensive efficiency away from home. Phoenix is 8-1 ATS their last nine home games against a team with a winning record while the Clippers are 2-5 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a plus .500 home record. The Suns get revenge here in a big win! |
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04-27-21 | Mavs v. Warriors -5 | Top | 133-103 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9:40 PM ET - Dallas is dealing with several key injuries including Porzingis, Richardson, Redick and potentially Doncic tonight and won’t have a full compliment of players to deal with a hot Warriors team. Golden State has won 7 of their last ten games including two straight against the Kings and Nuggets. The Warriors three loses in that ten game stretch came to the blistering Wizards and Celtics. The Mavs have cooled a bit with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games and are coming off a game last night at Sacramento. This will be the Mavericks 5th game in seven days and the second of a back-to-back which will be tough to overcome. We basically need the Warriors to win outright and Golden State is 22-13 SU this season when playing with a day rest. The Mavericks are just 5-7 SU and ATS when playing without rest. Dallas is on an 0-4 ATS streak when coming off a loss. We like Steph and company to get a big win here. |
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04-24-21 | 76ers +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 over Milwaukee Bucks - These two teams just met on Thurs with the Bucks winning 124-117. The 76ers shot 51% overall, 44% from 3 and had 33 rebounds. The Bucks outdid them though and shot 56% overall, made 20 of 40 3-pointers and outrebound the Sixers by 12. The Bucks are now 2-0 vs. Philly this year which makes this game that much more important for Philadelphia. The 76ers are 17-13 SU on the road with a +3.5PPG MOV which is 7th best in the NBA. Philly is in a much more desperate situation having lost 3 straight games while Milwaukee has won 4 of their last six. The 76ers are 12-7 SU when off a loss this year, 11-7-1 ATS. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS as a road dog this season – BUT those losses have come by an average of just -2.5PPG. This game is going to have a playoff like intensity which has us on the Underdog. Make sure you check the starting lineups before tipoff and Joel Embiid is scheduled to play. |
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04-21-21 | Warriors v. Wizards +2 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +2 over Golden State Warriors, 7:10 PM ET - There is no denying the play of Steph Curry right now is off the charts but even he won’t have enough in the tank to carry the Warriors to a win here. The Wizards have gone on a nice run with five straight wins and 7 of their last ten. Washington recently beat the Warriors 110-107 in Golden State as a 4-point road dog. There is a vast majority of money and tickets coming in on Golden State in this game yet the line has moved in the opposite direction which is a clear indicator the smart players are backing Washington. Golden State has the second worst road spread record in the NBA at 12-19 ATS with the 8th worst road point differential at minus -4.3PPG. Golden State is coming off a very big win in Philly which ties into their 13-15 ATS record this season (with a negative differential) when coming off a win. Russ and Beal can trade buckets with Curry tonight. |
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04-20-21 | Clippers -8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -8.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams met earlier this month with the Clippers winning 133-116 and the Blazers had Damian Lillard for that game, but he is out here. Another starter missing from the line up is starting center Nurkic and his 9.3PPG and 7.5RPG. Los Angeles is playing well with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games and a 4-0-1 ATS streak their last five games overall. Portland is in a funk right now with a 2-5 SU record their last five games and they have three home losses this month to teams similar to the Clippers (Celtics, Heat, Bucks). L.A. is 17-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd best scoring differential of +5.1PPG on the season. Portland has a winning home record on the season but their average margin of victory is just 0.1PPG and 16th in the NBA. The Clippers have a top five offense in terms of scoring, field goal percentage and 3-points shooting while the Blazers rank in the bottom eleven defensively in those same categories. The Clippers have covered 5 straight versus the Blazers, make it six in a row after tonight. |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Nuggets here as they catch the Grizzlies are coming off a huge upset of the Bucks in Milwaukee a few nights ago. The Grizzlies shot ridiculously well at 55% which is well above their season average and had Valanciunas in the lineup who is out tonight. Memphis could also be without another starter here in Dillon Brooks who is questionable with a thigh injury. Memphis is playing their 4th game in six days which will be a factor playing in the higher altitude of Denver. The Nuggets have been off for a few days and have adjusted to being without Murray with two straight wins. The Nugs have won 10 of their last twelve games. Denver is 19-10 SU at home on the year with the 6th best average home differential of +6PPG. Ten of the Nuggets last fourteen home wins have come by 9 or more points. Memphis has some impressive road numbers this season, but with the current situation and injuries this will be a difficult spot for them to cover. Denver has a top 5 offense when it comes to 3pt%, FG% and points and should have an easy time scoring against a Grizzlies defense that is in the bottom half of the NBA in FG% D, scoring D and 11th in 3pt% defense. Memphis hasn’t covered in Denver in four straight trips here. Lay the points. |
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04-17-21 | Cavs +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 96-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#559 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 over Chicago Bulls, Bulls playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 4th game in seven days while the Cavs are rested. Chicago will be shorthanded here with All-Star Zach LaVine sidelined due to illness. Prior to Friday nights game the Bulls had lost 4 straight games all by an average of 9PPG. Despite a 3-3 SU record their last six games the Cavs have played better overall. The Cavs have some of the worst offensive numbers in the NBA on the season including offensive efficiency (28th) and scoring 30th. But with the return of Kevin Love the offense has been much better ranking 14th in OEFF their last five games. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS their last five road games versus a team with a losing record. We mentioned the rest factor in favor of the Cavs as the Bulls are 0-5 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
#536 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -2.5 over LA Clippers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers should definitely be the fresher team in this one as they had a day off on April 13th after completing a successful road trip, then played on April 14th at home before another day off yesterday. The Clips, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights here. Philly is also the healthier team in this match up. LA is banged up with Kawhi Leonard possibly missing his 4th straight game here and Beverly & Ibaka still out. The Clippers are 3-0 with Kawhi out however those wins have coming vs Detroit (twice) and Indiana, both below .500 with the Pistons sitting with the worst record in the East. LA barely got by Detroit on Wednesday 100-98 with ex-Piston Reggie Jackson hitting a shot at the buzzer for the win. Philly has been fantastic at home with a 21-5 record, the 2nd best in the NBA behind Utah. They have a +7 PPG point differential at home and they are getting healthy. Both Embiid and Simmons are good to go tonight and Harris looks like he’ll be a go as well (sore knee). We feel this team is undervalued despite their impressive 38-17 record. That’s because the 3 players listed above have combined to miss 30 games this season and the Sixers have been forced to use 20 different starting line ups in the process. They are still 21 games above .500 despite that. When healthy, like tonight, they are outstanding. They have the #2 defense in the NBA allowing 107 points per 100 possessions and they are off a big home win over the Nets on Wednesday when Embiid, Simmons, and Harris combined for 82 points and 18 rebounds. Now they’ve had a day off to get ready for tonight’s big match up with the Clippers. Los Angeles topped Philly in late March but the 76ers weren’t at full strength with Embiid out. Now catching LA in a tough spot, we like Philadelphia tonight. |
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04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Lakers +6.5 over Boston, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Celtics are coming off back to back road wins over Denver & Portland so they are a bit overvalued coming into LA. Boston was an underdog in both of those games now laying 6.5 on the road in their 3rd road game in 6 nights. Since LeBron has been out with injury, LA has been a home dog of +6 vs the Sixers and +8.5 vs Milwaukee, 2 of the top teams in the NBA. Now they are getting around the same number vs Boston? This is a bad line in our opinion. The Lakers are off a 4-3 road trip including a blowout win @ Brooklyn the team with the 2nd best record in the East. With LeBron and AD still on the shelf, the Lakers have gotten a big boost with the acquisition of Andre Drummond who has averaged 10 PPG and 11 RPG in his 4 games with LA. Even without their 2 stars the Lakers have been competitive with a 6-7 overall record since LeBron went out and they’ve covered 4 of their last 5. They are undervalued with those 2 on the sideline. Boston steps in off a big 1-point win @ Portland in a back and forth game that could leave them a bit heavy legged for this one just 2 days later. The Celts have a losing road record this season and they are just 4-9 ATS in their 13 games this year as a road favorite. They’ve lost 8 of those 13 games outright. Lakers keep this close and pick up the cover at home. |
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04-14-21 | Heat v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 106-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Denver Nuggets -4 over Miami Heat 10:10PM ET We have obviously been doing this for a very looooong time and one situation that has been profitable for us repeatedly is betting a team in their first game since losing a star player. The Nuggets suffered a huge blow when Jamaal Murray injured his knee late in their game Monday. Typically, what happens is that role player replacement rises to the occasion when they get extended minutes. The separator of great NBA players and say bench players is consistency. Monte Morris, Will Barton or Campazzo will step up and fill the Murray void for this game. There are other parts of this wager we like including an elite team like Denver coming off a bad loss on Monday to Golden State. The Nuggets also catch a scheduling break with the Heat coming off a game last night and playing their 5th game in just nine days. Unfortunately, the Heat also lost last night (1-5 ATS L6 following a double-digit loss) but the lack of rest in the higher altitude of Denver will be an issue. Miami is just 8-12 ATS against winning teams, 3-6 ATS when a dog of 4.5-points or less versus anyone. Denver is 18-10 SU at home with the 7th best average point differential in the league at +5.5PPG. The Nuggets are 6-1 SU their last seven at home and get an 8-point home win here, even without Murray. |
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04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers may have won two straight games but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Orlando and Minnesota. The Pacers are 3-4 SU their last seven games and 7-7 their last fourteen on the road. Memphis is off a loss in New York but have won 4 of their last five games and are playing well. Memphis has the best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA over their last five games at 1.235PPP and a defensive efficiency rating of 1.124PPP which is 15th. In comparison the Pacers are in in the bottom ten in both OEFF and DEFF their last five games. Memphis is 14-10 ATS off a loss this season, 9-5 ATS at home in that situation. The Pacers are 8-15 ATS off a win this season, 2-8 ATS their last ten. Indiana embarrassed Memphis earlier this season at home 134-116 so expect payback here for the Grizzlies. |
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04-10-21 | Wizards v. Suns -11.5 | Top | 106-134 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs Washington Wizards, 10:10 PM ET - As you know we love to play on elite teams when they are off a loss which is the case for Phoenix here. The Suns lost a tough one to the Clippers last time out and will be focused here for the Wizards who are coming off a game Friday night versus the Warriors. Washington is just 8-16 SU on the road this year with the 5th worst average differential of minus -6.9PPG. Phoenix is 19-8 SU at home with the 2nd best average point differential of +8.6PPG. The Suns hold a decisive advantage on both ends of the court with the 4th best offensive AND defensive efficiency in the league. In comparison the Wiz are 25th in NBA in road offensive efficiency and 19th in road defensive efficiency. Washington is 1-7 SU on the road their last eight and the lone win came against the worst team in the league the Orlando Magic. Phoenix is 28-7 SU their last 35 games and are 12-3 ATS when coming off a loss. Earlier this season the Suns lost in Washington by 21-points so expect payback here. |
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04-09-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We like the early money/bets movement on this game and how the line fluctuated based on early action. It’s a solid indicator the play here is on the visiting Washington Wizards. Golden State is coming off a very big home win over the Milwaukee Bucks who were without Giannis for the game. Prior to that win though the Warriors had lost three in a row and 7 of their last eight so it’s not like they are currently playing well. Washington is coming off a much-needed win over the Magic and a big part of that success was the return of Beal and Hachimura which now give the Wiz their complete starting lineup. Beal is leading the league in scoring at over 31PPG and had a nice return game with 26-points on 11 of 19 shooting. Washington has been getting great play out of Russell Westbrook who is averaging a triple-double AGAIN this season but nobody is talking about it. We will play against a favorite (Warriors) who have an average negative differential of -10.2PPG their last five games. Beal and Russell keep this game close. Grab the points. |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -6 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - The Suns are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not only that but they are off a draining affair last night, an OT win over Utah. The “Big 3” of the Suns, Ayton, Paul and Booker all played 40+ minutes last night so fatigue will be an issue. The Clippers on the other hand are rested and will be focused to beat a team that is above them in the standings. The Suns are playing great, but the Clippers are finding their groove with wins in 8 of their last ten games. L.A. is 8-2 SU their last ten home games and all eight of those wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. In fact, the Clippers last eight home wins have come by an average of 19PPG. The Suns have an outstanding straight-up and spread record when playing without rest, but this situation is different as last night’s game was a huge home win over the West leading Jazz. The Clippers are getting healthy with the return of Beverly and starting to look like the contender in the West they were projected to be before the start of the season. Bet the Clippers here. |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns +2 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 over Utah Jazz, 10:10 PM ET - This is obviously the biggest game on the schedule with the top two teams in the West squaring off. Both teams are red hot with the Suns coming into this game with wins in 18 of their last twenty-two games, while the Jazz have won 9 of their last ten. Phoenix has been a home dog just three times this year, once was very early in the season before we know just how good they were going to be. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory of +8.8PPG. They are 2nd in offensive efficiency at home and 6th defensively. Utah has been even more dominating at home but not as much on the road where they are 16-10 SU on the season with the 6th best average point differential of +4.1PPG. In fact, the Jazz are slightly better than league average in road defensive efficiency ratings at 14th. Utah is just 1-6 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record. The Suns have won 6 straight home games and are 9-2 ATS their last eleven as a dog. Phoenix in a close win. |
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04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Portland for a couple different reasons. The Blazers are off a 133-85 blowout of the Thunder and will come into this game with a false sense of security. OKC is 20-30 SU on the season and easily one of the worst teams in the NBA. In fact, the Blazers are 4-1 SU their last five games, but all four wins have come against teams with a combined 86-122 record. Their loss in that five-game stretch came by 18 to Milwaukee who is on the same level as this Clippers team. The other part of this equation is Jusif Nurkic, the Blazers center, who played in the last five games but is out with another injury here. When betting the Clippers, you need to know who’s playing and who isn’t but tonight they will have both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup which is key. Los Angeles is 18-8 SU at home on the season with the 4th best home point differential in the league at +7.4PPG. Portland has a winning record of 16-10 SU on the year against the West, but their margin of victory is a negative -0.2PPG. In comparison the Clippers are 19-10 against the West with a plus +4.5PPG average MOV. The Clippers are 20-13 as a favorite of 5 or more points this season. Bet the Clippers. |
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04-02-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -4 | Top | 114-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - We love the spot here to play the Pacers and fade the Hornets. Charlotte is coming off a big game last night against the Nets which makes this a second consecutive game in two days. Not only that but its also their 3rd game in four days. Charlotte is just 4-5 SU when playing without rest and 3-5 SU when playing in this situation of 3rd game in four nights. Charlotte is a respectable 11-13 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG but this is a bad spot for them. Indiana is coming off a home loss to Miami on March 31st so they’ve had a full day to stew about it and will be ready to go here. The Pacers suffered through several key injuries early on but are now getting healthy with Caris Levert back in the mix. Levert is averaging 17PPG and gives the Pacers much needed scoring they’ve lacked. Indiana has covered 4 straight at home over the Hornets and we like them to get another cover here. |
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03-31-21 | Mavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics +1 over Dallas Mavericks 7:40PM ET The Celtics are off a disappointing home loss to the Pelicans and an uncharacteristic bad shooting night of 43% overall and 33% from beyond the arc. Boston is the 13th best overall shooting team in the league and 8th best 3-point shooting team so expect a return to normal tonight. Boston is 7-2 SU at home off a loss this year and considering the line on this game, all they have to do is essentially win and we get a cover. Dallas is coming off a win over the Thunder, but everyone is beating OKC these days so we’re not overly impressed. The Mavericks have played well on the road this year with a 13-11 SU record but only 6 of those wins have come against a team with a current winning record. Earlier this season the C’s were -2.5-points in Dallas and lost outright so the correction in the line for this game is not what it should be. Take Boston at home in a bounce back situation playing with revenge. |
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03-30-21 | Hornets -3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to play on the Hornets and fade the Wizards. Charlotte is rested and off a loss, while the Wiz are coming off a big emotional win last night against the Indiana Pacers. Westbrook expended a ton of energy with a monster 35-point, 21 assists and 14 rebound night. The Wiz shot ridiculously well at 56% (season average is 46.8% or around league average) and will have a tough time duplicating that here. Charlotte is 3-1 SU their last four games and they even played well in a 4-point overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Hornets are just 2-3 SU their last five road games but the three losses came to the Nuggets, Lakers (w/James) and Clippers. Washington is just 10-14 SU at home with a negative differential of -2.4PPG which is 22nd in the league. The line on this game is an indicator that Beal will not be in the lineup again for the Hornets so the play here is on Charlotte. |
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03-28-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The trade deadline came and went and both teams were involved in some deals as the Hawks were rumored to be set to trade John Collins but instead made a minor move with Rondo. Denver made a big splash by landing McGee from Cleveland and Aaron Gordon from Orlando. We actually feel the Nuggets might have just made the moves needed to win the West. The Nuggets will go through a minor adjustment period injecting Aaron Gordon into the lineup and playing him starter minutes. Atlanta has quietly played well by winning 9 of the last eleven games and the two losses were close at the Clippers and at the Kings (who are playing well right now). Denver has also played well of late but are coming off a three-game road trip and have a much bigger game on deck with Philadelphia. The Nuggets are just 1-5 SU coming off a win and the Hawks have covered 9 of the last eleven meetings with Denver. Denver also just 2-6 ATS their last eight home games as a favorite. |
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03-26-21 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -1.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET These two teams met a few games ago with the Pelicans winning 113-108 in Denver and payback is on hand tonight. As of this posting we don’t know if the Nuggets will have their new additions of Aaron Gordon or Javale McGee, but we are factoring in they don’t play, if they do, that’s a bonus. Denver is coming off a horrible loss to Toronto, giving up 135 points to the Raptors in a blowout. The Nuggets are 7-3 SU their last ten games overall, 6-1 SU their last seven on the road with an impressive win over the Bucks. Denver is 12-5 SU off a loss this season and the number is obviously low enough here to get a road win and cover. New Orleans has won two straight and are coming off a big win over the Lakers, but they are just 5-5 SU their last ten. The Pelicans are the 28th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA and will have a hard time containing the Nuggets 4th ranked offensive efficiency team here. Denver has the 6th best road differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG which is good enough for a cover here. Bet the visitor. |
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03-24-21 | Hawks -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The “tell” on this game is the number as Vegas is trying to bait you into betting the Kings as a home dog. We won’t fall into that trap and will take the red hot Hawks here. Atlanta is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers where they led by 22-points in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing by 9-points. Prior to that game the Hawks had won 8 straight games, four of which were on the road. Sacramento is playing better of late with wins in 3 of their last four games but they haven’t been consistent, especially at home where they are 9-12 SU with the 27th worst average loss margin in the NBA of minus -4.9PPG. Sacramento has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall and at home where they allow 121PPG. Atlanta is 11-12 SU on the road this season but do have a positive road differential which ranks 13th best in the league. Yes, this is a quick turnaround game and the Hawks just beat the Kings but Atlanta has been in California for a few days and the Kings are coming off a 6-game East coast road trip. Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored on the road this year. Lay it. |
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03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, Monday 10 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks are rolling right now and are coming off a HUGE win over the Lakers. Because of their current 8-game winning streak this line is a few points lower than it should be. But lets also consider who the Hawks have beaten in this streak. They beat the Lakers after LeBron was injured just 10-minutes in. They have wins over OKC, Houston, Cleveland, Sacramento, Toronto, Orlando and Miami. Other than Miami, none of those teams have a winning record and four of those teams are in the bottom 6 of the entire NBA. The Clippers are 14-6 SU at home with the 5th best point differential of +7.3PPG which gets a cover here. L.A. has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers at home and average 117PPG on their home court. Atlanta is 19th in road defensive efficiency rankings and will have a hard time stopping the Clippers in this one. LA is rested and ready…LAY IT! |
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03-21-21 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Lakers, 10:15 PM ET - Several Sports Books have come out with a line on this game of Phoenix minus 4-points but we don’t expect that to be the number at tipoff. The Lakers are without LeBron James and Anthony Davis which makes them a below average team in the West. The Suns on the other hand are one of the best in the West and would have been favored by 4-points here had LeBron been playing. With that said we will lay up to 9-points with the Suns if this line moves. Phoenix is 14-8 SU at home with the 3rd best average point differential of plus +7.5PPG on the season. The Lakers are just 4-5 SU their last nine road games and only two of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record. The Lakers are just 3-3 SU when playing without rest this season and this factor becomes magnified now without LeBron in the lineup. The Suns take care of business against the leagues best teams as they hold a 11-1 ATS record their last twelve games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. |
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03-20-21 | Kings v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - We rarely pass up an opportunity to play on an elite NBA team off an embarrassing loss which is the case for the 76ers in this situation. Philly was just beaten by the Bucks at home and will be eager to atone here. The Sixers are 18-4 SU at home with the 4th best margin of victory of +7.2PPG. They hold the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 12th best offensive efficiency. While the 76ers are in a great situation (at home, rested and off a home loss) the Kings are in a bad situation. Sacramento is off a HUGE upset win over the Celtics as a 7-point dog, playing the second night of a back-to-back, playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in eight days. The Kings have the 24th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG, rank 27th in road defensive efficiency and 16th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -8.2PPG. Philly 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Easy call for a BIG win by Philadelphia. |
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03-19-21 | Pacers +4 v. Heat | Top | 137-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4 over Miami Heat, 8 PM ET - This line opened higher than it currently sits, then received a volume of money on the Heat and yet the line moved down. That’s a great first indicator the Pacers are the play here. Looking at each teams last ten games we find completely opposite results. Miami is 8-2 SU their last ten games while the Pacers are 2-8 SU. But on closer inspection we see the Heat have just two wins in that stretch over teams with winning records and one of them came against 21-20 Atlanta. Indiana has played a brutally tough schedule recently with games against the Nets, Nuggets twice, Suns, Lakers, 76ers, Knicks and Celtics. In comparison the Pacers were getting similar points at Denver, at the Lakers and at Philly. Despite a 12-8 SU home record the Heat have an average margin of victory of just 0.6PPG which is 16th worst in the NBA. Pacers have a negative road differential of -0.2PPG which is well within this point spread. Grab the points. |
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03-18-21 | Hornets +8 v. Lakers | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 over LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Typically, a solid situation is betting against teams off games in the higher altitude of Denver if they are playing without rest such as the Hornets tonight. But we are going contrarian for a couple key reasons. First off, the Hornets were down big early and barely played the starters in the second half so fatigue won’t be an issue. Secondly, the line value is obvious as the Hornets were just plus +6.5-points at Denver who is rated higher than the Lakers, who are laying 8-points here. The Lakers are average or below in most offensive categories including efficiency which they rank 15th in. Los Angeles is 18th in scoring and 22nd in 3-point percentage shooting. L.A. has the 4th most wins in the NBA (easy first half schedule) but their average point differential is just +6PPG. Charlotte is above .500 this season and getting great play from their young talent including LaMelo Ball. The Hornets have won 4 of their last five games and 6 of their last nine. Charlotte is 8-11 SU on the road with an average point differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Hornets have been great off a loss recently with a 6-0 ATS run. Any time you play the Lakers it’s a big game so expect Charlotte to be dialed in tonight. Lakers 1-4 ATS their last five off a win of 10+ points. |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly playing well right now with three straight wins to climb over the .500 record for the season. Charlotte recently beat Minnesota, Detroit and Toronto who are all very comparable to this Kings team. The Hornets have been very solid at home with a 6-1 SU record their last seven home games AND they won those games by an average of 11PPG. Sacramento has not been a good road team this year with a 6-11 SU record and one of the worst road differentials in the NBA at minus -5.7PPG. The Kings are 1-6 SU their last seven road games, and that one win came against the Pistons who are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Not only that, those six losses all came by more than the tonight’s spread. Sacramento is 1-7 ATS their last eight as a dog. Charlotte takes care of business when it comes to weaker teams with a 6-1 ATS run versus teams with a losing record. Easy call here with Charlotte by double-digits. |
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03-14-21 | Clippers v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 115-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 over LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - Obviously, the Clippers are one of the better road teams in the NBA at 12-8 SU with a point differential of +5.6PPG, but they’ve struggled of late with a 1-4 SU record their last five away from home. New Orleans is 2-3 SU their last five home games and one of those wins came against the Utah Jazz as a +7-point underdog. The Pelicans are 11-10 SU on their home floor this season and also have a positive plus/minus of +2.2PPG (12th best in the NBA). The Pelicans have cashed 7 of the last ten meetings in this series overall and 20 of the last twenty-seven in New Orleans. Based on our line analysis and the money moves on this game we are siding with the home team here plus the points. |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - Both teams are trending up right now as the Nuggets have won four straight, while the Grizzlies have won 3 of their last four. We like the fact the Grizz have played a game after the All-Star break (beat Washington) while Denver has yet to play. Memphis has a pair of great games against two of the best teams in the NBA at home recently as they beat the Clippers bad (122-94) and lost by 1-point to Milwaukee. The Grizzlies have covered four in a row overall and have cashed 5 of the last six against the Nuggets in Memphis. The break couldn’t have come at a worse time for Denver who had won four in a row. The line on this game is the “tell” though as the Nuggets were just a -3.5-point favorites at Indiana who we rate higher than Memphis. Why the low number? In contrarian fashion we will be the opposite of the way Vegas wants you to bet. Back the home dog here. |
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03-11-21 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - Brooklyn is the team to beat in the East and Boston has certainly slipped in our power rankings since the start of the season. The Celtics went into the All-Star break on a 4-game winning streak but prior to that had been just average. In comparison the Nets have played extremely well in their last ten games going 9-1 SU with an average differential of +10PPG. Brooklyn has shot 51% over that ten-game span and face a Celtics defense that 17th in defensive field goal percentage at 46.7%. The Nets are the 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting team in the league too at 40.7% which has helped them average 121PPG. The line on this game is clearly off as the Celtics were recently a +4.5-points underdog at home to the Clippers and the Nets rate near even to the LA in our metrics, meaning the Nets should be at least -4.5 here. When laying -4.5-points or less this season the Nets are 100% or 6-0 ATS. Bet the Nets at home in this one. |
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03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET - We like the Spurs here and the points in this Texas showdown. When you think of the Mavs you think of offense and points, but the reality is, they rank just 4-spots higher in total offense than the Spurs do and both are in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring. The big advantage the Spurs have here is defense. San Antonio ranks 10th in points allowed per game compared to the Mavericks ranking 18th. The Spurs can also exploit the Mavericks on the glass with the 10th best offensive rebounding margin in the NBA, going up against the Mavs 22nd ranked defensive unit. The Spurs limped into the All-Star break but were hampered by injuries. Dallas won 8 of their last twelve games which is why this line is what it is and offering value. San Antonio has been incredible on the road this season with a 9-4 SU record and a +3.9PPG average margin of victory which is 9th best in the NBA. Dallas on the other hand has a negative differential at home of minus -2.2PPG which ranks 20th. Easy call with the Spurs here and the points. |
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03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Sun -6.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10PM ET - The Warriors could feel the effects of a close game last night in Portland where the key starters saw 30+ minutes of action, while the Suns were at home resting. Phoenix is coming off an impressive win over the Lakers in which Devin Booker was ejected in the 3rd quarter and the second unit played the majority of the 4th quarter in a convincing road win. Golden State relies heavily on Steph Curry to carry the offensive load while Draymond Green does all the dirty work on the defensive end of the court. The Warriors are 3-6 SU their last nine road games and have a loss here earlier this season by 21-points. The Warriors rank 23rd in the NBA with a negative road point differential of minus -4.3PPG. Phoenix is 11-6 SU at home and have the 3rd best average margin of victory at home of +7.2PPG. Both teams are near even when it comes to offensive statistics, but the Suns hold a decisive advantage defensively allowing 5 less points per game than Golden State and rank 2nd in the NBA in 3-point percentage defense. Golden State is 6-17-1 ATS their last 24 games playing without rest and that trend continues here. |
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03-03-21 | Nets -8 v. Rockets | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -8 over Houston Rockets, 7:30 PM ET - This game sets up very similar to when we bet on the Nets over the Warriors in KD’s first game back in the Bay when Brooklyn handled Golden State. James Harden will play with a chip on his shoulder tonight back in Houston for the first time since being traded to the Nets. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team from beyond the arc this season at 40.5%. Houston is LAST in the league in 3-point shooting at 33%. Brooklyn will have their way offensively here with the highest scoring offense in the NBA at 120.8PPG going up against a Rockets defense that gives up 112.2PPG (18th). The Rockets are clearly reeling right now with 11-straight losses and 8 of those beats came against teams with sub .500 records. Brooklyn has won and covered 6 straight road games and they’ll get another big win here. |
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02-27-21 | Pacers v. Knicks +1 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +1 over Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - We like the situation to fade the Pacers here who are playing the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. Indiana lost a big game last night against the Celtics with four of their five starters logging heavy minutes. That’s a big concern considering they rank 25th in bench scoring in the NBA and lack depth. The Pacers will have a tough time scoring here against a Knicks team that is 1st in points allowed per game, 1st in FG% defense and 1st in 3-point percentage D. New York allows just 1.087 points per possession which ranks 3rd overall in the NBA. New York has struggled offensively for the season but seem to have found their rhythm after putting up 140 points against the Kings. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games including 4 of their last five at home. The play here is New York. |
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02-22-21 | Wizards +7 v. Lakers | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +7 over LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you’ve followed ASA for any length of time you know stats, averages, numbers drive our handicapping process. But there also other factors that go into it and we couldn’t help but notice how tired LeBron looked in the Lakers last game against the Heat. James played 37+ minutes, scored 19-points on 7 of 21 shooting, with 11 rebounds and 9 assists. It’s clear the real MVP of the Lakers is Anthony Davis and without him on the court the Lakers and the aging James are good, but not great. We are ignoring the full season statistics for both teams in this matchup and focusing on the last five games for each. Without AD the Lakers offensive efficiency numbers have plummeted as have their defensive efficiency ratings. The Lakers have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last five games they rank 14th. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU their last five games and off two straight losses against Brooklyn and Miami. The Wizards on the other hand look like they’ve started to figure things out. Washington has won 4 straight games and they’ve come against quality competition (Boston, Houston, Denver & Portland). The Wiz have one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA on the season but in their last five games they rank 4th best. In their last five games the Wiz are shooting 46.5% and holding foes to 43% shooting. In that same span of those games the Lakers are shooting 45.5% and allowing 47.6%. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS when playing a below .500 opponent this season and this number is too much for the short-handed Lakers to cover. Wizards on a 5-1 ATS run their last six against a team with a winning record. |