Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-08-23 | San Diego State v. Utah State -1 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -1 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Huge game in the Mountain West with San Diego State sitting in 1st place at 9-2 sitting one game head of Boise State, Nevada, and this Utah State team who are all 8-3. This is a quick revenge spot for USU at home after losing 75-65 @ San Diego State on January 25th. The Aztecs hit 48% of their shots in that game and from beyond the arc they were red hot making 55% of their triples which is 20+% higher than their season average of 34%. The host also made 11 more FT’s in the game. We expect Utah State to have the better shooting percentages in this game at home. USU is the #1 three point shooting team in the nation hitting just under 41% and they are also have the 5th best eFG% in the country. The Aggies are 11-1 at home this season and in their one home loss they blew an 18 point lead. At home they are shooting 50% overall and 45% from beyond the arc which averaging 83 PPG. San Diego St has a respectable 6-4 record away from home (away & neutral) but their MWC road tilts have mainly been vs the lower half of the conference. There are 5 teams ranked inside the top 80 per KenPom in the Mountain West (including both of these teams) and the Aztecs have faced one of those teams on the road this season. That was a 9 point loss vs Nevada last Tuesday. USU is a tough place to play as they are 34-7 here in conference play since the start of the 2019 season. With the number set where it is (opened USU -1) we basically just need a win from them to get a cover. Home team is 16-4-1 ATS the last 21 meetings in this MWC rivalry and another home cover is on the way tonight. |
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02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico -4 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -4 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for the Lobos. They are off a loss on Saturday @ Utah State and now back at home where they are 14-1 on the season. They’ve been fantastic at the Pit averaging 85 PPG with a +15 PPG margin while shooting just under 50% on the season. This is also a quick revenge spot for New Mexico as they just lost @ Nevada 97-94 in double OT on January 23rd. The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 4 games but all of those wins have come at home. Now they go on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight and have a losing record on the season. Nevada’s drop offs on the road are fairly dramatic. They average 78 PPG at home and just 66 PPG on the road. They shoot barely 40% from the field on the road and make only 30% of their triples. All of their road losses have come by at least 6 points and the average PPG margin of their 6 road setbacks is -10.6. All but 2 of New Mexico’s 14 home wins have come by at least 8 points and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this revenge game. We’ll lay the small number with New Mexico at home. |
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02-07-23 | Maryland v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -3.5 over Maryland, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Terps are on a nice roll winning 5 of their last 6 but they are now officially overvalued as well. 4 of their 5 wins during that stretch have come at home and their lone road win was @ Minnesota, the worst team in the Big 10. The Terps only other road win this season was @ Louisville so they’ve beaten the worst team in the ACC and the worst team in the Big 10 on the road and that’s it. They already have 5 conference losses away from home and those have come by an average of 14 PPG. Now they face a motivated MSU team that is coming off a loss vs Rutgers in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Sparty is actually coming off back to back losses as they lost at Purdue prior to the Rutgers setback. That dropped them to 6-6 in the conference which is 1 game behind Maryland. This is a must win home spot here with 2 of their next 3 games on the road. Just looking at Sparty’s recent stretch may have you thinking they are in a slump losing 5 of their last 7 games. However, 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss during that stretch was by 1 point to Purdue, the #1 team in the nation. MSU’s PPG margin at home is +10 on the season and they have been outstanding defensively giving up just 59 PPG on 38% shooting. That’ll be a problem for a Maryland team that is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Lay it with the Spartans at home on Tuesday. |
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02-06-23 | Bucks v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing well right now having won 9 of their last ten games but 7 of those were at home. Now they go on the road where they are 10-12-3 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.2PPG. Portland is returning home after going 2-1 on their road trip with the most recent game being a loss. The Blazers are a profitable 14-11 ATS at home this season with a +4.5PPG average Margin of Victory. In the lone meeting earlier this season the Blazers lost by 8-points in Milwaukee but were without Dame Lilliard. We get a good team, off a loss and as a home underdog. Back the Blazers! |
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02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - What a great spot to fade the Dukies on the road vs a very good team. The Blue Devils are off a huge 63-57 home in over arch rival UNC on Saturday. It was a tight game throughout with neither team ever leading by more than 7 points. UNC took more shots but only made 34.9%, made more 3 pointers, and had fewer turnovers. The difference was Duke went to the FT line 15 times making 11 of them while the Heels were 2 of 3 from the stripe for the entire game. Only 3 FT attempts. Now on a short turnaround after that emotional game, Duke takes the road where they simply haven’t been very good this season. They have a 2-4 record in ACC play away from home with their only wins coming @ BC and @ Georgia Tech, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. Their road losses in league play have come at the hands of Wake, Va Tech, Clemson and NC State by an average margin of -11.5 PPG. These 2 met on January 21st at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Devils barely snuck by with a 68-66 win. Now the Canes get their shot at quick revenge at home where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of +12 PPG. The fact is the Canes have been the better team in ACC play with a points per possession differential of +10 per 100 possessions compared to Duke’s +6 per 100 possessions. Miami is the #1 offensive team in the ACC in adjusted efficiency and they foul the least of any team in the league so we won’t see the Devils with a big FT disparity as we saw on Saturday at home vs the Tar Heels. Miami has been waiting for this one since their loss a few weeks ago + they didn’t get to host Duke last season. The Devils are just 1-7 ATS following their last 8 SU wins and we like Miami to get the cover at home on Monday night. |
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02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs Denver Nuggets, 7:10 PM ET - This is a quick revenger game for the Timberwolves as they recently lost in Denver by 4-points as a +9-point underdog. Earlier in January they did beat the Nuggets at home by 13-points. Minnesota has had decent success in this series with 5 straight covers and a 4-1 SU mark. The Wolves are coming off a home loss to the Magic and have been solid this season when off an “L” with a 9-4 SU record. Denver is in a much tougher scheduling situation here having just played last night versus the Hawks. This will also be the Nuggets 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Minnesota is in a great spot to get even with the Nuggets after a recent loss in Denver. |
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02-04-23 | Marshall v. UL - Lafayette -1 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana -1 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is 19-5 on the season but they’ve played on of the easiest schedules in college basketball. They have faced a single team ranked inside the top 90 this season and 13 of their opponents are currently ranked outside the top 200. They do have a winning road record at 6-3, however the average rank of the opponents they’ve faced away from home this year is 217th. Now the face a Louisiana team who is a perfect 10-0 at home and ranked inside the top 100. The Ragin Cajuns are in the much better situational spot as well playing their 4th straight home game while Marshall just faced App State (in North Carolina) on Thursday night and now play in Louisiana just 48 hours later. That’s not a great spot for a team that has very little bench (362nd out of 363 in bench minutes) playing 2 games on the road in a short period of time. On top of that they are one of the faster paced teams in the nation which could see them wearing down at this point in the season with a short bench. This will be Marshall’s 5th game in 15 days with one of those games going to OT and another to double OT. We mentioned Louisiana has been perfect at home this season and they have been great offensive in the Cajun Dome where they average 87 PPG on 52% shooting including 44% from beyond the arc. Their average margin of victory this year at home is +20 PPG. They are 9-2 in the Sun Belt (1st place) one game ahead of Marshall and the Cajuns overall record sits at 19-4. These two met for the first time last season and Marshall rolled up a big win 93-79 as a short home favorite. Louisiana has been waiting for this one and they are rested and ready to go after spreading out their minutes on Thursday night in a 19 point home win over Texas State. We love this spot and we’re getting a high level team in a game where all they have to do is win at home to cover (line opened pick-em). Take Louisiana. |
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02-03-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Magic continue to be one of the best spread record teams in the NBA at 29-22-1 ATS. They have covered 7 of their last ten games and have a 27-18-1 ATS record as a dog. As an Underdog they have a negative differential of minus -3.3PPG and cover those games by +3.7PPG. Minnesota is 11-16 ATS as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. As a home chalk the Wolves are 6-10 ATS +1.1PPG. When Orlando has faced a Western Conference team this season, they have covered 68.4% of the time with a 13-6-1 ATS record. When it comes to facing the East the Wolves are 7-11 ATS or 38.9%. The Magic have owned the Timberwolves with a 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota. Grab the points. |
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02-02-23 | Clippers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 105-106 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET- The Bucks are in a groove right now with five straight wins and 7 victories in their last eight games. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home also with the closest win coming by 8-points to the Nuggets and Raptors. The Bucks were just favored by -12.5 points against the Nuggets and are now laying marginal number against the Clippers. Milwaukee has the 5th best average MOV at home this season at +7.7PPG. The Clippers are also playing well with a 6-1 SU record their last seven games. They are coming off a win in Chicago as a -2.5-point favorite. Recently the Clippers were a +2-point dog at Dallas when both Leonard and George were in the lineup. That tells us the Bucks should be a bigger chalk here. LA is 15-14 SU on the road this season but they do have a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Both teams are getting healthy and playing well right now but at this price we have to back the home team. |
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02-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 61-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU -4.5 over Loyola Marymount, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 just played in early January and Loyola was just a 1 point home favorite. Now we’re getting BYU at -3 at home (opening line) which is solid value in our opinion. Especially with the way the game played out @ Loyola Marymount. The Lions won that game 64-59 and it was tight throughout (tied at halftime) despite Loyola making 5 more three pointers and 10 more FT’s. The Lions went to the FT line 23 times to just 9 for BYU. Both teams shot around 41% for the game so based on that and the advantages Loyola had from the 3 point line and FT line (scored 25 more points in those 2 areas) it should have been a blowout but wasn’t. Now we get BYU at a cheap price at home as they are coming off 3 straight losses. Two of those setbacks were tight games on the road and their most recent loss was at home to the WCC’s top team St Mary’s on Saturday by the final score of 57-56. The Gaels, ranked 7th nationally per KenPom, made a shot with under 1 second remaining to get the win. What made the loss even more impressive is BYU played without 3 key players – one starter and their 2 top reserves and still almost pulled out the win. Those 3 players combine to average 19 PPG and 11 RPG along with eating up an average of 61 minutes per game so they are key contributors. All were suspended for 1 game and are back for this one. BYU has lost 2 home games in conference play this season, both by 1 point to the 2 best teams in the league, Gonzaga & St Mary’s, as we mentioned. LMU is 6-3 in West Coast Conference play but they’ve faced the easiest league schedule thus far. They have a 3-4 record in true road games and they’ve lost 18 of the last 20 meetings vs BYU. The Lions have won only once here in Provo since the 2007 season and that was way back in 2011/12 season. BYU is now 4-5 in WCC play and in must win mode at home where they have been extremely tough to beat over the years (45-8 record over their last 53 home games). Lay the small number with the Cougars at home. |
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02-01-23 | Abilene Christian v. Seattle University -5.5 | Top | 83-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Abilene Christian, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Great spot for Seattle here one of the top teams in the WAC this season. After winning their first 7 games in conference play, Seattle is coming home off back to back road losses @ Sam Houston State (the highest rated team in the conference) and Stephen F Austin (4th highest). ACU is just 3-6 in WAC play and they are coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won 2 games vs Utah Tech and UT Arlington who have a combined 4-14 record in WAC play. The Wildcats are 3-6 in league play despite playing the 2nd easiest schedule in the WAC. Away from home this team has been terrible with a 2-9 record (road & neutral). ACU’s only 2 wins away from home were vs Cal State Bakersfield (ranked 312th per KenPom) and Northern Arizona (ranked 283rd). Those 2 teams have a combined record of 12-31 on the season. Abilene Christian’s other 9 losses away from home have come by an average of 15 PPG. The Wildcats have covered just 2 of those 9 games away from home and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 7 of those 9 games. They won’t have much, if any, success offensively in this game vs a Seattle, the best defensive team in the league and one of the tops in the nation. The Redhawks rank 63rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (#1 in the WAC) and they are allowing just 59 PPG at home this season. Seattle is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and they’ve won 27 of their last 29 home games. The Redhawks return 7 of their top 9 players from last year’s 23-9 team and they have some extra motivation in this one after getting knocked out of the WAC tourney last season losing 78-76 vs this ACU team. Abilene Christian is just 11-11 this season and Seattle will be the 5th highest rated team they’ve faced this year and they are 1-8 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 190 (Seattle is 115th). Seattle gets back on track with an easy home win on Wednesday night. |
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02-01-23 | Nets +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 96-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +8.5 @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics just faced the Lakers and Knicks at home and were favored by the same number as they are tonight versus a better Nets team. Even without Kevin Durant the Nets rate higher than both of those teams in our power rankings. Boston split with those teams, losing to the Knicks in OT and beating the Lakers in OT. Brooklyn beat both the Lakers and Knicks by 17 and 7-points. *Note the Lakers did rest LeBron and AD against the Nets. Back on Jan 12th the Celtics beat the Nets by 11-points in Brooklyn. The big difference was the Celtics advantage on the boards +17 rebounds. The Celtics own the 3rd best average MOV at home of +8.6PPG, are 4th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.201PPP and 11th in DEFF at 1.116PPP. Brooklyn has the 4th best average point differential on the road at +1.2PPG, 27th in OEFF, but 11th in DEFF. Overall the Nets offensive efficiency has been much better in their last five games at 1.269PPP. When we analyze most recent statistical data from Jan 1st on, the Nets and Celtics have the exact same DEFF at 1.120PPP, but offensively the Nets have a slight edge in OEFF at 1.160 to 1.140. In each teams last ten games the Nets have a better +/- at +4.3PPG compared to Boston’s -4.2PPG. Nets a dog of 5 or more points just 5 times all season 5-0 ATS. Brooklyn on 5-1 ATS streak their last six, Celtics 0-6 ATS streak. |
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01-30-23 | Baylor v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -3.5 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re buying low here on Texas and selling high on Baylor. The Bears have won 6 straight games while the Longhorns are coming off a double digit loss @ Tennessee on Saturday. Because of that, we’re getting some decent value here. The Bears have played 3 road games during this 6 game winning streak beating WVU by 5, Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma by 2. Those 3 teams currently sit in 8th, 9th, and 10th place in the 10 teams Big 12. Baylor was actually a 1.5 point underdog @ last place Texas Tech (0-8 in the Big 12) and now they are just +3.5 vs a Texas team ranked in the top 10 by KenPom, thus the line value we were speaking about. The Horns are coming off a loss as we mentioned, and they’ve done so 3 times this season bouncing back nicely with wins in all of those games. They are 12-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +18 PPG while shooting nearly 51% from the field. On the road, Baylor has a -4.5 PPG differential while making only 43% of their shots. Overall these teams both rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but on the other end of the court Texas has a solid advantage. The Bears rank dead last in the Big 12 (conference play) in adjusted defensive efficiency allowing 1.11 PPP. That will be a problem tonight vs a Texas team that averages 86 PPG at home this season. Texas played Tennessee, the top team in the SEC (#1 ranked nationally per KenPom), on the road Saturday and lost. Baylor played host to Arkansas (3-5 record in the SEC) and won by just 3 despite having huge edge at the FT line (21 made FT’s to 6 for Arkansas). We like the Horns to play with an edge at home tonight after their loss and pick up a win and cover. |
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01-30-23 | Blues v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 117 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
#62 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Both clubs enter this game on losing streaks but there is a big difference between these teams right now. St Louis is banged up with injuries and has been getting blown out on a regular basis. Winnipeg is having a much stronger season under coach Rick Bowness (came over from Dallas before this season) but he just laid into his team after a 4-0 home shutout to the Flyers on Saturday! That was 3rd straight loss for Jets but they have not lost 4 straight games all season long! Also, the Jets have a rock solid goalie in Connor Hellebuyck. Even if David Rittich starts between the pipes that would be fine as he has allowed an average of 2 goals last 2 starts. But Hellebuyck is the expected starter here and he is one of the top goalies in the NHL. Conversely, the Blues have allowed tons of goals as their goaltenders are struggling. Probably it will be Jordan Binnington but whether it is him or Thomas Greiss, both have struggled in recent starts. The Blues have allowed 4 or or more goals in 12 of 18 games. The Jets had given up just 2.3 goals per game last 6 home games before that 4-0 loss to Philadelphia. Coach Bowness got the attention of this team after that loss. To a man, these players have been challenged and they will respond here. Jets on home ice and off a home shutout and this is the final game for these clubs before the All Star break. St Louis is hurting and missing some key guys and other guys banged up. Jets the healthier team and on home ice and they are a big favorite on the money line but priced with value on the puck line. Winnipeg has beaten the Blues five straight times! The two wins this season have both been blowouts! The Jets entered this game with last 7 wins by an average margin of 2.4 goals apiece. St Louis has 24 losses in regulation this season and 23 of the 24 have been by at least a 2-goal margin! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Winnipeg is the value play here. |
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01-29-23 | Bengals +2 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 12 m | Show |
#323 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This line opened low at KC -2 due to the injury to Mahomes. It has since moved to the Bengals as a favorite and now back to KC -1.5 with the anticipation that Mahomes will play. He will, but we can’t imagine he’ll be even close to 100% based on the history of high ankle sprains and time needed to heal. He needs to be at the top of his game for the Chiefs to have a chance here and with his mobility severely limited they just aren’t the same team. Cincinnati has already beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the last 13 months and that was with Mahomes at 100%. Cincy outgained KC by 130 yards combined in those 3 games and QB Burrow has ripped apart this defense in those games with a 72% completion percentage of almost 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. In their lone meeting this season, the Bengals defense held Mahomes to 16 completions, his lowest of the season. Last week the Bengals dominated both lines of scrimmage vs a team many thought was the best in the NFL. Cincy rolled up 172 yards rushing while holding Buffalo to 63 yards on the ground. Now they face a KC defense that allowed Jacksonville to rush for a whopping 7.6 YPC last weekend. After their 98 yard TD drive right after Mahomes was injured, the Chiefs only gained 153 total yards from that point on with their QB hobbled. Jacksonville gained 260 yards from that point on but had a few key turnovers including a fumble at the KC 3 yard line. The fact it, once Mahomes was far less than 100%, the Jags outplayed the Chiefs and KC was fortunate to win. This week Kansas City plays a better opponent but will almost assuredly be in the same situation offensively with Mahomes hobbled. Cincy, on the other hand, was firing on all cylinders last week offensively and should be able to do the same this week vs a KC defense that is not as good as the Buffalo defense they shredded for 412 yards last weekend. Cincinnati is the 2nd best spread team in the NFL this year with a 13-4-1 ATS mark. KC is the 2nd worst spread team in the league this year with a 5-12-1 ATS record. With both teams at full strength we felt the Bengals had a solid shot at the upset and now with the situation we have, we feel it will be very difficult for Kansas City to win this game. Cincinnati heads back to the Super Bowl. |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We weren’t overly impressed with San Fran last week in their 19-12 win over Dallas. We felt the Cowboys absolutely outplayed the host Niners for the first 3 quarters before running out of gas late in the game. That wasn’t surprising as Dallas was playing their 4th straight week on the road and the overall numbers for those teams aren’t good, especially late in the game. That game was tied 9-9 entering the 4th quarter and Dallas had outgained San Francisco 219 to 147 when the Niners when on their long (and only) TD drive. The point is, they were at home last week playing an opponent in a very bad situational spot and struggled. That same opponent, the Cowboys, finished 2 games behind Philly in the NFC East. QB Purdy finally came back to earth a bit last week (219 yards pass and 0 TD’s) has he finally faced a defense with a pulse. In 5 of his 7 starts leading up to last weekend vs Dallas, he had faced defenses ranked 18th or lower. His 2 career road starts were both tight wins @ Seattle (won by 8) and @ Las Vegas (won in OT). Now he takes a HUGE step up in competition traveling to the east coast for his first ever playoff start facing the 2nd best defense in the NFL the Eagles who are also 1st in the league vs the pass. Philly, similar to the Dallas defense last week, is great at pressuring the QB with a league high 70 sacks this season, 15 more than anyone else in the NFL. We expect Purdy to struggle. Philly is 15-3 on the season but 2 of those losses came when QB Hurts was out with an injury. Thus, with him in the lineup, the Eagles are 15-1 and they dominated the Giants last week 38-7 outgaining NY by nearly 200 yards. They are also rested and healthy after having a bye the previous week. At home this year the Eagles have a winning margin of +11 PPG and a yardage margin of +105 YPG. They were 7-2 ATS in home games with Hurts as their starting QB. San Francisco was just 4-4 ATS on the road this season and they played only 1 road game this season vs a team that ended the year with a winning record, Seattle, and they barely made the cut with a 9-8 regular season record. We have these teams rated very close overall, however we like the home field edge and QB advantage here with Hurts, an MVP candidate, vs Purdy making his first road playoff start and first road start vs a high level team. Getting Philly under a FG at home is value in our opinion. |
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01-29-23 | Rutgers +4 v. Iowa | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
#843 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4 over Iowa, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a revenger for Rutgers after losing at home to Iowa back on January 8th. Rutgers, the 2nd best defensive team in the nation allowing 0.86 PPP, allowed the Hawks to put up 1.12 PPP in that loss. It was not only the worst defensive performance for Rutgers on a PPP allowed basis, it was also the most points they’ve allowed the entire season (76). Iowa was a 5.5 point dog in that game and now we’re getting the better overall team, Rutgers (16th nationally KenPom compared to Iowa at 36th), as a dog here. The Knights are the best defensive team in Big 10 play on a points per possession basis (0.94) and Iowa is the worst defense in conference play allowing 1.09 PPP. The Hawkeyes are also the worst eFG% defense in the Big 10. Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10 games while Iowa is 5-5 during that stretch. The Knights have already proven they can get it done on the road beating Purdue in West Lafayette which is the Boilers only loss this season (20-1 record). The underdog is 9-2-1 last 12 meetings and we expect this one to go to the wire. We’ll take the MUCH better defensive team, getting points, in revenge mode. |
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01-28-23 | Kansas +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +3 over Kentucky, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We’re buying Kansas low here as they have lost 3 straight games. To put that in perspective, since the start of the 2001 season, the Jayhawks have had a grand total of three 3 game losing streaks and have not lost 4 in a row during that span. They are getting points in this game from a Kentucky team that has already lost at home to South Carolina, the lowest rated team in the SEC. The Wildcats already have 6 losses (14-6 record) facing the 84th most difficult schedule in the country. KU, on the other hand, is 16-4 on the season facing the #1 most difficult schedule and they were 16-1 prior to this 3 game speed bump. All 3 of those recent losses have come vs top 25 teams per KenPom. The Cats have already lost to 3 teams this year ranked outside the top 40 per Ken Pom (Missouri, South Carolina, and Michigan State) and they are back to being overvalued based on their 4 game winning streak. Three of those wins have come vs Texas A&M, UGA, and Vandy, ranked 6th, 10th, and 12th in the SEC. Their one impressive win in SEC play came over Tennessee and that was a bounce back game after losing at home to South Carolina. These 2 are comparable offensively when it comes to key metrics, but Kansas has a solid edge defensively ranking 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Wildcats rank 57th. The Jayhawks have also faced the much tougher slate of offenses as every team in the Big 12 with the exception of 1 is ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with half of the teams (5) ranking in the top 30 in that category. Finally this is a revenger for Kansas as well as they were embarrassed at home vs Kentucky last season as 5-point favorites. That Wildcat team, however was far superior to this one, as they ended the season ranked 6th in KenPom while this year’s version is 30th. Take the points as we expect Kansas to win this game outright. |
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01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin +2 over Illinois, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This is a must win home game for the Badgers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games to drop onto the NCAA bubble. On the other hand, the Illini have won 5 of 6 so this is a buy low – sell high situation with Wisconsin at home getting points. The Badgers losing stretch began on January 7th when they lost by 10 to this Illinois team on the road. They were without their best overall frontcourt player, Tyler Wahl, in that game and he has since returned. The Illini shot 59% from beyond the arc in that game which is well above their 32% mark on the season (237th nationally). Wisconsin, who is the much better 3 point shooting team (56th nationally) only made 28% of their 3’s in that game. During the Illini’s current winning stretch, they’ve played only 2 road games vs the 2 worst teams in the Big 10, winning both @ Minnesota and @ Nebraska. Prior to that they had lost their 2 other conference road games @ Northwestern and @ Maryland. UW was beaten badly @ Maryland on Wednesday night but that was a very tough spot for this team after having to reschedule their previous game vs Northwestern from Saturday to Monday evening due to the Cats Covid issue. They were also missing their top perimeter defender and starting guard Klesmit for both of those games but he has been practicing and it looks like he’ll return so Wisconsin should finally be at full strength. Their only conference home loss was vs Michigan State, a game Wisconsin led late but lost by 4, and that was without Wahl in the lineup. The host really needs this win as they are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games. We’ll call for Wisconsin to get the win at home. |
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01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA Top Play On 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5 vs. Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The Magic continue to reward their backers with a 14-7 ATS record when getting more than +7.5-points this season. Miami has struggled in the role of a favorite with a 5-10 ATS mark when laying -5 or more points. Overall, the Heat are 9-15-1 ATS at home with a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Orlando is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record greater than .600. Miami could let down here as they are coming off a huge home win over a big rival in the Boston Celtics. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games and 2 straight. Orlando has covered 6 of the last eight in the Florida rivalry and is a live dog here. |
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01-27-23 | Detroit v. Robert Morris -2.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON Robert Morris -2.5 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - Robert Morris and Detroit are tied in the Horizon League with 4-6 records. RM has played the toughest schedule in the conference with 7 of their 10 games thus far coming on the road. The Colonials haven’t been home since January 9th and they are coming off a 4 game road trip. Their most recent game was last Saturday so they’ve had a week off to rest and prepare for a rare home game. RM’s only conference home loss was vs Cleveland State, one of two teams in the Horizon ranked inside the top 200. Detroit, despite playing an easier schedule (7th in the league) only has 4 wins as well. The Titans have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with their last and that win was vs IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon and one of the worst in the country. These 2 teams just met on January 15th in Detroit and the Titans came away with an 87-75 win. The host Titans shot lights out in that game hitting 53% overall and 59% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect another effort like that tonight on the road where they shoot just 39% on the season. Robert Morris has a huge edge defensively here ranking as the 4th best team in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the conference defending inside the arc. Detroit ranks outside the top 300 nationally in almost every key defensive category. While RM has had a week off to get ready for this revenger, Detroit played Saturday & Monday so tonight will be their 3rd game in 7 days. We like Robert Morris as a small home favorite in this one. |
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01-26-23 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON Western Illinois -5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Revenger for WIU here who played their worst conference game this season @ South Dakota which was a 17 point loss. In that first meeting at the end of December WIU made only 39% of their overall shots and just 17% from beyond the arc. That is well below their season averages of 46% and 32% respectively. Since that loss, Western Illinois has played their best ball of the year with a 4-2 record. South Dakota, on the other hand, is 2-3 since that win. The Coyotes are just 4-4 Summit League play despite facing the easiest conference schedule thus far. They are 1-2 on the road in conference play with their only win coming by 2 points @ North Dakota who is the 2nd worst team in the Summit League. South Dakota is just 1-6 SU on the road this season losing by an average of 17 PPG while averaging only 55 PPG. Western Illinois is 9-2 at home on the year winning by an average of 13 PPG while averaging 82 PPG on offense. South Dakota is coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won only 1 game vs Nebraska Omaha, the lowest rated team in the Summit. WIU has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Oral Roberts who is by far the best team in the conference (only top 100 team in the league). South Dakota has scored 62, 61, and 45 points in their 3 conference road games while WIU has topped 70 points in 4 of their 5 home games. We like the revenge angle and we don’t think South Dakota can keep up offensively in this game. Lay the points. |
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01-25-23 | Raptors v. Kings -3 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 vs Toronto Raptors, 10 PM ET - The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number. |
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01-24-23 | Fresno State v. Boise State -10 | Top | 53-63 | Push | 0 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State -10 over Fresno State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the superior team Boise State. The Broncos are coming off an OT loss on Friday night @ New Mexico. Fresno is coming off a win as a home dog beating UNLV on Saturday which gives Boise an extra day to get ready for this one. The Broncos entered Friday’s game @ New Mexico on a 5 game winning streak and they had won 14 of their previous 16 before that loss. At home they’ve been dominant to say the least winning 21 of their last 23 games at Extra Mile Arena. Their PPG margin this season is +12 and at home that jumps to +18 per game. They are averaging 77 PPG at home and we just don’t see Fresno keeping up here. The Bulldogs are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation averaging only 61 PPG (356th nationally). They don’t make many 3’s (325th in 3 point %) and don’t get the FT line very often. We don’t see them getting into the 60’s in this game vs a Boise State defense that ranks 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense. In home games they are allowing just 58 PPG on 39% shooting. Fresno’s 3 road games in Mountain West play have all been losses by 10, 13, and 22 points and Boise State will be the highest rated team they’ve faced so far this season (25th nationally per KenPom). The Bulldogs leading scorer & rebounder, Moore, is in concussion protocol and may not play here. Even if he does, we like Boise to roll up a big win coming off their loss on Friday night. |
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01-23-23 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 94-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -3 over New Mexico, Monday at 9 PM ET - Nevada is 9-0 at home and their head coach, Steve Alford who was the head man at New Mexico from 2007 – 2013, has never lost to the Lobos since taking over at Nevada (6-0 record). The Wolfpack have had a full week off to rest and prepare for this game while New Mexico is coming off a huge OT win at home vs Boise on Friday night. That was a huge, come from behind win for the Lobos that pushed them into a tie for 2nd place in the MWC with Boise State, Utah State, and this Nevada team. The Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule thus far in league play and the 2nd most difficult overall schedule (29th nationally) of any team in the MWC not named San Diego State. Despite playing that very tough schedule, the Wolfpack have a very good 15-5 record with all of their losses coming vs top 100 teams on the road (or neutral). Their average margin of victory at home this season is +15 PPG and they are holding their opponents to just 62 PPG at Lawler Events Center. If Nevada needs to salt this game away with FT’s late, they are the 8th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% as a team. UNM is 2-1 on the road in Mountain West play with an impressive win @ San Diego State with the Aztecs making only 25% of their 3’s and 52% of their FT’s in that loss. Their other 2 conference road games were a loss @ Fresno State who has a 7-11 record and is the 2nd lowest rated team in the league and a 1 point win @ Wyoming who is 6-13 and rated as the worst team in the MWC. Nevada has beaten New Mexico 8 straight times at home with the Lobos last win here coming in 2016. The Wolfpack are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games overall dating back to last year and the favorite in this series has covered 6 of the last 7. Lay it with Nevada. |
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01-23-23 | Wolves v. Rockets +5.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS +5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 1/23 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just squared off in Minnesota on Saturday with the Wolves winning by 9-points. Minnesota was favored by 8-points at home and are now laying -5.5 on the road which doesn’t equate. Houston played well the other night but 21-turnovers and 14 missed free throws turned out to be the difference. We expect them to play much better at home and also feel it’s highly unlikely Anthony Edwards can produce another 44-point outing as he did Saturday. On the season the Rockets have an average +- at home of minus -4.5PPG while the Wolves road differential is -2.7PPG. As a home dog this season the Rockets have a 9-8-2 ATS record but more importantly their average loss margin is just -3.6PPG which is obviously within tonight’s number. We like the home dog in this situation and will grab whatever points are available. |
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01-22-23 | Nets v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8:40 PM ET - Most times ‘revenge’ doesn’t work in the NBA but it’s certainly a factor in this high-profile showdown. In late December the Warriors visited the Nets in Brooklyn and were drilled 143-113. Golden State sat Curry, Wiggins, Thompson and Green in that game who are all available today. At first glance, this looks like a high number but considering the Nets were just plus +5 at Utah, it makes sense a healthy GST team is -7.5. Golden State has been really good at home this year with a 17-5 SU record and an average plus/minus of +6.7PPG. Brooklyn can boast some solid road numbers, but a big portion of those wins came with Kevin Durant on the floor who is out tonight. We will lay the points with Golden State. |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Jags on the road after 2 must win, come from behind home wins the last 2 weeks. To end the regular season Jacksonville played a “win and in” game for the AFC South crown vs Tennessee and trailed in the 4th quarter before coming back to win 20-16. On top of that, the Jaguars were outgained by nearly 100 yards in that game vs a Tennessee offense with 3rd string QB Josh Dobbs under center. Last week we all watched them get down 27-0 and make a furious 2nd half comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30. What do they have left in the physical and emotional tank after those 2 dramatic wins? This team probably shouldn’t even be here at this point and now they must play a road game versus a KC team who is coming off a bye and is completely comfortable in this situation (playoff pressure) while Jacksonville is not. We do have one data point to look closely at as these teams met here in KC back in mid November. The Chiefs were favored by 10 in that game and won 27-17. It was actually a much more dominant performance by KC in that game. They outgained Jacksonville by +2.6 yards per play with KC averaging a massive 7.8 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.2 YPP. On top of that, the Chiefs were -3 turnovers in that game and still able to win by double digits. We expect the Kansas City offense to have their way in this game as they did in the first meeting averaging nearly 8 yards per play as we discussed. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 24th in total defense and 28th in pass defense and that’s facing the EASIEST schedule of offenses this season. Now they face the #1 offense in the NFL with 2 weeks to prepare and a QB Mahomes that is playing at the top of his game. Since Mahomes took over as the starting QB for KC, he has a record of 7-2 in home playoff games with those 7 wins coming by an average of 13.6 PPG. The Jags defense faced 7 teams this season which ended the year ranked in the top 15 in total offense. In those games Jacksonville allowed an average of 28 PPG. KC head coach Andy Reid has a remarkable 29-6 record in games with an added week of rest advantage (63% cover rate in those games) and in his 19 playoff wins, 15 have come by double digits. We like Kansas City to win this game by at least 10 points. |
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01-21-23 | Belmont v. Bradley -6.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON Bradley -6.5 over Belmont, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Bradley currently sits at 6-3 in the Missouri Valley which is good for 3rd place but they are the best team in the conference by nearly every key metric. They rank #1 in MVC play in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Braves are truly one of the top defensive teams in the country this year allowing just 60 PPG (16th nationally) with opponents making only 39% of their shots (24th). This is a huge home game for the Braves who sit one game behind conference newcomer Belmont. The Bruins are tied for 1st place with Southern Illinois at 7-2. They’ve also played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are 2-2 on the road in league play. Their 2 conference road wins came @ Valpo and @ Illinois Chicago, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the MVC. Their other 2 road games ended in an 18 point loss @ Southern Illinois and a 10 point loss @ Illinois State. This is a revenger for Bradley who lost @ Belmont in late December blowing a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the game in the 3 point loss. The Braves have been fantastic at home with a 10-0 mark winning by an average score of 82-54! Their closest margin of victory at home this year had been 13 points. They have not lost ATS at home this season with their average cover coming by +15 PPG. The Braves have 7 losses on the season, all on the road, and 5 of them have come vs top 100 teams. By comparison, Belmont has played only 1 top 100 team this entire season, and that was Bradley, a game we discussed earlier. We’ll lay it with Bradley at home in revenge mode facing a Belmont team that has played a light schedule to date. |
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01-21-23 | Nebraska v. Penn State -8.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -8.5 over Nebraska, Saturday at 2:15 PM ET - PSU has dropped 3 of their last 4 games to fall to 3-4 in Big 10 play. This team is solid and now in must win mode at home vs one of the conference’s worst teams. Nebraska is improved over previous seasons, but they are still ranked as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 ahead of only Minnesota. The Huskers are coming off a big home upset vs Ohio State and now are on the road where they are 1-3 in league play with their only win coming @ Minnesota (by far the worst team in the Big 10) by 2 points in OT. Nebraska’s other 3 conference road losses have come by margins of 16, 18, and 18 points. PSU is 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of Michigan State. The Nittany Lions 2 home conference wins have come vs Indiana & Iowa, and their 9 home wins have come by an average of 16 PPG. PSU is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 6th in 3 point FG%. At home they make nearly 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers. The Lions also turn the ball over just 13% of the time which is #1 nationally limiting opponents extra possessions. With Nebraska averaging only 60 PPG on the road this year, we’re not sure they can keep up with Penn State in a must win spot at home. Lay it. |
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01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -7 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The most important aspect of handicapping the Spurs is knowing who’s playing and who isn’t. Considering they sat Paul George and Kawhi Leonard last game for load management it’s safe to assume both will play tonight. Neither are on the injury report and the line reflects they’ll be in the lineup. The Clippers are off a bad loss to the Jazz and look to rebound here against a Spurs team off a rare win over the Nets. San Antonio is 2-9 SU their last eleven games and 9-16 SU for the year at home. The Spurs have the 2nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG. San Antonio is 2nd to last in the league in home defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. They aren’t much better offensively, ranking 27th in OEFF when at home. Despite having a very depleted roster for most of the season the Clippers still boast the 9th best defensive efficiency allowing just 1.124PPP. The Spurs were recently +6.5 at home versus the Kings and lost by 13. They were +9 on a neutral court versus the Warriors and lost by 31. The betting action on this game clearly shows sharp money on the Clippers and we’ll follow the money! |
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01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY 10* Utah -3.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Utes are in desperate need of a win here after losing 3 straight games. Two of those games have come on the road @ UCLA and @ USC. They started the Pac 12 season with 5 straight wins and now sit at 5-3 in league play, still good for 4th place in the conference. WSU, on the other hand, has won 3 straight, so now we have an undervalued home team vs an overvalued road team. Wazzou has played 8 road games this year and lost 7 of those games. The Cougars have struggled big time on offense in their road games this year averaging only 63 PPG on just 38% shooting. WSU also relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 39% of their points on the season coming from beyond the arc (16th most in the nation). The problem here is that Utah is an outstanding defensive team overall (5th nationally in eFG% defense) and the Utes hare fantastic guarding the arc allowing opponents to make only 28% from deep (9th best nationally). The Utes have an average PPG margin of +17 PPG at home this season and they are in a must win spot off 3 straight losses. The host in this Pac 12 series has covered 15 of the last 22 meetings and we expect that to be the case again on Thursday night. We’ll lay the small number with Utah at home on Thursday. |
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01-18-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Health is a big part of the equation tonight as the Hawks are healthy and the Mavericks are not. Atlanta has been hit hard with injuries for most of the season but now have everyone back including center Clint Capela. The Mavericks are really banged up right now with 3 key role players all out with Kleber, Finney-Smith and Josh Green all sidelined. To make matters worse, several players are playing through nagging injuries and are not 100%. The Hawks have won 3 straight and 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming against the Bucks. Dallas on the other hand has lost 2 straight and 4 of their last five games. With a healthy roster this Hawks team looks like a play on team in the near future and we will grab the points with them here. |
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01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure +1.5 over Duquesne, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - After a record of 6-24 a season ago, Duquesne has surprised this season with a 13-5 mark. Because of that, they’ve become a bit overvalued and they are laying points on the road here vs St Bonnies. That’s a drastic swing from last season when STB was favored by 14 at home and won by 26 points. While they have improved, this Duquesne team has played only 4 true road games and won only 1 of those games and that was vs an 8-10 St Joes team last Wednesday. The Dukes are getting outscored by 7 PPG on the road and now facing a St Bonnies team that is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 PPG. The Bonnies are averaging 72 PPG at home and facing a Dukes defense that isn’t great to say the least ranking 229th in scoring defense, 192nd in FG% defense, and 284th in 3 point FG% defense while allowing 75 PPG on the road. On offense, Duquesne relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 36% of their points coming from deep (36th most nationally). The problem here is, the are facing a Bonnie defense that ranks 16th nationally allowing their opponents to shoot just 29% from deep and even better at home allowing 25%. St Bonnies has dominated this series going 19-3 SU last 22 meetings while winning 14 of the last 15 meetings with Duquesne at home. They are getting points at home here and we’ll take them. |
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01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -2.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We went against Texas on Saturday for our Top Game (we took Texas Tech +8.5) and we cashed easily with the Longhorns winning by 2. Tech actually led for much of the game including a halftime lead of 9 points. Texas was never covering at any point of the game with their largest lead being just 7 points. We mentioned in that analysis we felt the Longhorns are overvalued right now based on their 15-2 record and we’ll stick by that here. The Horns are 4-1 in Big 12 play but it hasn’t been a cakewalk. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play yet 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or fewer. They trailed late @ Oklahoma and won by 1 point, trailed by 18 at home vs TCU and rallied for a close win and then as we mentioned they were down much of the game on Saturday and pulled out a 2 point win. Now they go on the road vs a vastly underrated Iowa State team. The Cyclones are playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. Their only conference loss was on Saturday @ #2 ranked Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have lost only 3 home games since the start of the 2019 season, won by 2 and never led by more than 3 points the entire 2nd half. ISU missed a 3 point shot as time expired that would have given them the win. Prior to that loss, the Cyclones faced the Texas Tech team that gave Texas all kinds of problems and beat them 84-50. Their other Big 12 home game was a 17 point win over a very good Baylor team. ISU is 13-3 on the season and they’ve been dominant at home with a 9-0 record winning by an average score of 76-49. All of their home wins have come by double digits. Their defense has been outstanding ranking 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 7th in scoring defense allowing 58 PPG, and they are #1 nationally in creating turnovers at a rate of almost 30%. As we mentioned on Saturday, Texas is still dealing with the dismissal of head coach Chris Beard just over a week ago and they have played only 2 true road games all season. We think they get clipped here and ISU gets the home win and cover. |
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01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +4.5 over FAU, Monday at 7 PM ET - FAU just won their biggest game of the season coming from behind to top North Texas on Saturday 66-62. The win moved FAU to 6-0 in CUSA play a full 2 games ahead of UNT in the loss column. The Owls also beat UNT both times already this season giving them a huge leg up in conference play. Now going on the road vs a surging WKY team puts Florida Atlantic in a very dangerous spot. Western KY sits with an 11-6 overall record and has won 3 straight in conference play after starting the league at 0-3. They could easily be right at the top of the conference with FAU & UNT as all 3 of their league losses have come 5 points or less. Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, has played tight games for the most part in CUSA play with 5 of their 6 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. The Owls have played only 2 road games in conference play beating UNT coming back from 9 points down with under 4 minutes remaining in the game and topping FIU in OT. Just one year ago WKY was favored by 4 at home vs FAU and won by 7. Now they are getting 4.5 points (as of this writing) which is nearly a 10 point swing. Too much in our opinion, especially considering the situation. Western KY is averaging 80 PPG at home this season and they’ve beaten the Owls 5 straight times at E.A. Diddle Arena. The last FAU win @ Western Kentucky was back in 2013. Take the points as we think this game is a toss up. |
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01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:10 PM ET - The Thunder have put together a really impressive stretch of games recently with wins over the Celtics, Mavs, 76ers and Bulls. That success means they’ll have the Nets full attention on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Nets meanwhile are coming off a bad home loss to the Celtics and will be fully focused on today’s opponent. Brooklyn is 9-4 SU, 5-2 SU at home when coming off a loss this season. The Thunder have a negative point differential on the road this season of -2.8PPG while the Nets have a +/- at home of plus +6.1PPG. Brooklyn is the best shooting team in the NBA overall and the 2nd best 3-point shooting team. Even without KD we like the Nets to get a double-digit home win here. |
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01-14-23 | 76ers -4 v. Jazz | Top | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a satisfying home win on Friday over the Orlando Magic. The 76ers on the other hand were off last night and are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Thunder. Utah has won 2 straight games but had lost 7 of their previous eight. Philly is finally getting healthy and we expect a positive trend moving forward with a roster capable of winning the East. The Jazz have a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but are far worse defensively, ranking 26th in the NBA in DEFF. Philly on the other hand owns the 4th best defensive efficiency ranking in the league. The Sixers should get plenty of easy scoring opportunities as the Jazz are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed in the paint at 55.5 per game. Embiid who is averaging 33.5PPG should feast on the Jazz in the interior. Scheduling and previous game results make the 76ers the play on team here. |
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01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#791 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tech enters this game with an 0-4 Big 12 record and this is pretty much a do or die spot for the Red Raiders. They are also coming off their worst performance of the season getting rolled @ Iowa State on Tuesday after playing 3 down to the wire games in conference play prior to that. Tech’s first 3 losses were by 6 points @ TCU (Red Raiders led that game by 13), by 3 points @ Kansas, and in OT vs Oklahoma when 2 of their key players were out. The Raiders have 6 losses on the season, all to teams ranked in the top 30 (Kansas, Ohio St, Creighton, Iowa St, Oklahoma, and TCU) and if we throw out their only terrible performance vs ISU, their average loss was by 6 points. We expect a huge effort after playing terrible in their most previous game. Texas is overvalued right now. They are off a tight 4 point win at home vs TCU, a game in which the Frogs led 40-22 and blew it. The Horns lost by 13 at home to KSU and their other 2 Big 12 wins were by 1 point vs Oklahoma and by 10 vs Oklahoma State in a game Texas actually trailed with 6 minutes left. The Horns are still figuring things out after their head coach Chris Beard was fired last week. Not an ideal situation. The Red Raiders are an ideal team to cover as a large dog because they play very good defense (36th in adjusted efficiency), they are a good shooting team (22nd in eFG%) and they get to the foul line a lot with 20% of their points coming from the stripe (74th most nationally). Texas Tech has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this series and the Horns lone win during that stretch was by 1 point. The Red Raiders were +4 here last year and won outright now we’re getting nearly double digits in a must win spot. Take the points. |
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01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -6.5 over Providence, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We’re selling Providence high right now. We don’t think they are as good as their 14-3 overall record, 6-0 in the Big East. There is a reason that Creighton, who is 9-8 overall and 3-3 in the Big East, is the favorite here and not a light one for that matter. The Friars lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and were thought to be a middle of the pack at best Big East team this season. They’ve overachieved to say the least. Creighton is the opposite. They returned many of their key players from a team that beat San Diego State in the Big Dance and then nearly knocked off eventually National Champion Kansas. The Jays were picked by many as the best team in the Big East this season. They’ve underachieved however some of that had to do with injuries. Their starting center Kalkbrenner, who leads Creighton in scoring & rebounding, missed 3 games due to illness and they lost all of those games. They’ve also played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation thus far so they are more than prepared for Big East play moving forward. The Friars score over 23% of their points from the FT line which is 13th most nationally. They’ve made 65 more FT’s than their opponents in their 6 league games thus far and when half of their conference games have been decided by 4 points or less or in OT, that make a gigantic difference. Problem for them here is, they are on the road so most likely won’t get favorable calls, and Creighton fouls at the 4th lowest rate in the country with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the FT line. The Blue Jays have a +19 PPG margin at home this season and they are shooting around 49% here. They are in a must win spot at home as they cannot afford to fall further behind. Now at full strength we like Creighton to win and cover this one. |
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01-13-23 | Magic +6 v. Jazz | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +6 @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - With a win tonight Orlando can guarantee themselves a winning road trip on this 5-game West Coast jaunt. They already have impressive wins at Golden State and Portland as underdogs. The Jazz have cooled off since their hot start and are on a 2-7 streak in their last nine games. Utah is 13-7 SU on the season at home with a +4.7-point differential. As a favorite though the Jazz are just 8-11 SU, 6-13 ATS with a +/- of +2.1PPG. The Magic have been a profitable "play on" team as a pooch this season with a 21-15-1 ATS record and their net differential is -3.4PPG. Orlando has done well against the West this season with a 10-6-1 ATS record. Against the East, the Jazz are 5-9 ATS. We will back Orlando here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. |
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01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron -12.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 7 PM ET - Total mismatch here. EMU is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 318th by KenPom) and defensively they cannot stop anyone. The Eagles are allowing 80 PPG (357th out of 363 teams) and their opponents are making 49% of their shots vs this sieve of a defense (358th). That will be an issue in this game vs an Akron team that is a perfect 8-0 and averaging 78 PPG at home this season. The Zips are 10-6 on the year, after finishing 24-10 last season and losing a close game to UCLA in the NCAA tourney. Five of their six losses have come vs top 100 teams which is understandable. This will be the 4th game this season where Akron has faced a team ranked outside the top 300 and their margins of victory in those games were 13, 25, and 32 points. EMU is 4-12 on the season and all 4 of their wins have ranked outside the top 210. Akron will be the 2nd highest rated team EMU has faced since November 15th when they were creamed by Bradley 89-61. The only other top 200 team they’ve faced since then was Florida Atlantic and the Eagles lost that game by 28 points. The Zips play very solid defense (106th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they allow just 57 PPG at home this season. EMU is not a very good shooting team and they rely on getting points at the FT line with 21% of their points coming from the stripe. Problem is, Akron fouls very infrequently. The Zips have won 34 of their last 38 home games and they’ve won 9 in a row here vs EMU. Lay it. |
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01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU +7 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Zags continue to be overvalued in the market based on past perception. This team is nowhere near the level they were over the last few seasons. Because of that false perception, the oddsmakers have been off on this team and they have a terrible 4-12 ATS record. They’ve played 3 true road games this year and haven’t covered any of those – 0-3 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 9.5 PPG. This is not an ideal spot for Gonzaga as they’ll be playing their 3rd consecutive road game in the span of a week. They won their first 2 in this 3 game trip beating San Francisco by 2 points and Santa Clara by 5 points (both non-covers). The were quite lucky to come away with wins in those team games as they trailed by 12 @ SF and by 14 @ Santa Clara while their largest leads in those 2 games were 3 & 6 points respectively. We think their luck runs out here. BYU struggled early in the season with a 5-5 record after 10 games but they’ve since hit their stride winning 8 of their last 9 games. Defensively BYU has been very good ranking 27th in the nation in adjusted efficiency and at home they are allowing only 63 PPG on 40% shooting. The Zags have fallen way off on the defensive end this year after ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in 5 of the previous 6 seasons. This year they rank 280th in PPG allowed and 240th in FG% allowed. The Cougars have a 13-6 record but it could be much better as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or less. They also have one of the best home court advantages in college basketball having won 45 of their last 51 here at the Marriott Center. Our numbers have this game going to the wire so we’ll take the generous points. |
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01-12-23 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Chicago Blackhawks, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET - No matter the goalies who start here we like Colorado strongly in this spot. However, we will note that Petr Mrazek is the expected starter for the Blackhawks. He is 2-10-1 with a 4.19 GAA this season! As for the Avalanche, Pavel Francouz is back and healthy and served as the back-up Tuesday and is likely to start here. He has allowed 2 or less goals in 5 of his last 7 starts. Even if Colorado does start Alexandar Georgiev here, he was showing signs of turning things around before his most recent start. In the 3 starts before that rough one he had allowed 3 or less goals in 3 straight starts. The key here is the team on team situation. Yes, the Blackhawks are off B2B wins but they lost 25 of 29 games prior to this 2-game winning streak. Also the win streak features a win over a bad Coyotes team and a win in overtime against a Flames team that fired 47 shots on goal and had a heavy shot edge. The point is we are not impressed. The Avalanche beat the Blackhawks 5-2 earlier this season. Though the Avs have endured some tough sledding on the ice recently, they are still the vastly superior team in this match-up and this is the perfect "get right" game against an outclassed opponent. Chicago just will not be able to keep up here. The Blackhawks are averaging only 1.8 goals scored per game over the last 30 games! Colorado averages 3 goals per game and this is still a team capable of "pouring it on" against weaker foes. This one should end similarly to their 5-2 meeting earlier this season as Avalanche are angry about rallying to tie their most recent game only to allow a late power play goal in the eventual loss. That said, this Avs team is ready to roll tonight. Road team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with the road favorite Colorado is the value play here. |
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01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska continues to be undervalued in our opinion, especially at home. This team has vastly improved over last season as they currently rank 85th in the KenPom ratings after finishing last season ranked 140th. The Huskers are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by 3 points in OT vs Purdue, the highest ranked team in the conference (6th on KenPom). Illinois has been trending down for a month now. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Illini have gone 4-4 over their last 8. They’ve played 2 true road games this season and lost both @ Maryland by 5 and @ Northwestern by 13. They are coming off a nice win at home over Wisconsin on Saturday but that came with a few asterisks. The Badgers were forced to play without their top player, Tyler Wahl, who is recovering from an ankle injury. On top of that, the Illini shot WAY above their season averages in that game making 10 of their 19 three point attempts (53%) when they entered the game making only 32% of their 3’s on the season. Wisconsin was also called for 21 personal fouls leading to +14 points at the FT line for Illinois. In their most recent home game Nebraska was a 4 point dog vs Iowa and won by 16 and their vastly improved defense (44th in adjusted efficiency) held the potent Iowa attack to just 50 points. Now they face an Illinois team that has averaged only 63 PPG on the road, 14 fewer than their season average. The host in this Big 10 series have covered 6 of the last 7 and we give the Huskers a great shot to pull the upset here. Grab the points. |
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01-10-23 | Hornets +8 v. Raptors | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Hornets here as this number is higher than it should be. The Hornets just played a hot Pacers team that has won 8 of their last ten games and were +5.5-points there. The game before that they were a +10-point dog in Milwaukee and won outright. Charlotte has bad overall numbers on the road this season but recently they lost to Indiana by 5, beat the Bucks, lost to the Warriors by 5, -11 at Portland and beat the Lakers. Historically, the Raptors have enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage but this season they have been slightly above average at 12-10 SU. They have a +1.7PPG +/- at home which is 20th in the NBA. They are hovering around league average in offensive efficiency at home and near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both teams have struggled with their shooting for the season but in their last five games the Raptors are hitting below season numbers in both overall FG% and 3PT%. In fact, those percentages are brutally bad as Toronto is shooting 42% from the field and 30.9% from beyond the Arc in their last five games. Charlotte has covered 18 of the last 26 as the visitor in this series. Grab the inflated points. |
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01-09-23 | Magic v. Kings -6 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off opposite results which makes the Kings the play on team here and the Magic the play against. Orlando is off a big road win over the Warriors as a +6.5-point underdog. They face a hungry Kings team that is off a bitter 2-point loss to the Lakers. Sacramento has a +/- at home of +3.3PPG and stand 11-9 SU on the season on their home court. Orlando has the 25th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG and is 5-13 away from home. The Kings have lost 2 straight at home and will be up for this game against a young Magic team. Orlando is an exciting team in the league but playing at a consistent level is always difficult for a young roster. Bet the Kings here. |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -12.5 over TCU, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Georgia has been the best team in the country all season long and we like them to win by at least 2 TD’s in this game. The Bulldogs came from 2 TD’s down last week to beat Ohio State, however UGA dominated the stats outgaining the Buckeyes by almost a full 2.0 YPP. The UGA offense gained 533 yards on just 60 offensive snaps for an average of 8.9 YPP! They were only forced to punt twice in their 12 possessions, missed 2 FG’s, and threw an interception that led to a short OSU TD drive. We don’t see any reason they won’t move up and down the field on a TCU defense that allowed Michigan to gain 7.0 YPP last week and was rated lower than the Buckeyes defense. The Frogs were fortunate in the semi finals to say the least. They barely won a game where they had 2 pick 6’s and the Wolverines were held at the TCU 2 yard line (no points) and fumbled at the TCU 1 yard line (no points). In that situation, the Frogs should have cruised to a win but the game went to the wire. Their success on offense was on the ground averaging over 6 YPC with QB Duggan completing less than 50% of his passes. We don’t think that’ll happen here vs Georgia who ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing 77 YPG on only 3.0 YPC. UGA has a big edge defensively allowing almost 100 YPG fewer than TCU and their offense just put up nearly 9 YPP on a team that has a better defense than the Frogs as we discussed above. Surprisingly, 5 of the 8 National Championship games have been decided by double digits. The last 4 were all blowouts with an average margin of 22 points. We see another potential lopsided score here and we’ll lay it as long as it’s under 2 TD’s. |
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01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
#477 ASA PLAY ON 10* New England Patriots +7.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are writing this up on Friday and the line is +7 at most places. We would suggest you play this one now as we wouldn’t be surprised if this line dips below a TD on Sunday depending on what happens on Saturday. With the cancellation of the Buffalo – Cincinnati game, if KC wins here they have the #1 seed. In that case, the Bills may actually rest some players to get ready for the playoffs which would send this line down. New England needs to win to make the playoffs. Win and they’re in. Preparation wise, the Patriots have a big advantage here. They’ve been getting ready for this game with one of the best prep coaches of all time, Bill Belichick, while Buffalo’s week has been thrown into chaos after the Damar Hamlin incident on Monday night. The Bills have been doing walk throughs only this week and some of their players stayed in Cincinnati this week to be with Hamlin which is completely understandable. The Bills are already in the playoffs obviously and we can’t imagine what their mind set might be for this game. The road team in this AFC East rivalry has been money with a 20-7-2 ATS record the last 29 meetings. We’re not enamored with the way the Pats are playing right now, but getting a TD in this situation with one of the better defenses in the NFL (allowing 5 YPP – 4th in the NFL) is the way we’ll go. |
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01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -6 vs Orlando Magic, 8:30 PM ET - We like how this young Magic team is starting to come together but this isn’t a great spot for them and the price is right to play against them. Consider this: The Magic were just +6.5-points at home against Memphis and are not catching that same number in Golden State. Let’s face it, the Warriors aren’t the team they were a year ago with injuries taking a toll, but they are still 17-3 SU at home with a +/- of +8.7PPG. That differential is the 4th best average in the NBA. Orlando is 4-13 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 25th worst. Golden State lost at home to Detroit which makes them a ‘play on’ here. The Warriors are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS this season at home when off a loss. Orlando doesn’t bounce back like the Warriors do, the Magic are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS when on the road coming off a beat. Orlando beat Golden State by 1-point at home earlier in the season which makes this a payback game for Golden State. Lay the points |
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01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - While the Chiefs are winning, they are vastly underperforming when it comes to the point spread. They are 4-11-1 ATS on the season and over their last 9 games KC is 1-7-1 ATS. They are tied with Tampa for the worst ATS record in the NFL this season. If we throw out their week one domination of what we have found out is a bad Arizona team, KC has a PPG margin of just +5.7 over their last 15 games. Over their last 10 games when they were fighting for the AFC West crown and pushing for the #1 seed, they haven’t been all that impressive even vs lower tier teams. During that stretch they won @ Houston in OT, beat Denver by 6 & 3 points, and beat a floundering Tennessee team by 3 in OT. The Raiders are still playing hard and playing fairly well winning 4 of their last 7 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 3, and 3 points. They’ve only lost 1 game this season by double digits and nearly knocked off KC on the road this season losing 30-29 and outgained the Chiefs by 10 yards. Las Vegas was +7.5 in that game @ KC and now we’re getting a higher number with them at home because KC is in a perceived “must win” spot which we talk about below. Last week QB Stidham played outstanding and the Raiders offense outgained the red hot 49ers while averaging 7.6 YPP on the best defense in the league despite their 3 point loss in OT. Chiefs need to win to keep pushing for the potential #1 seed, however they’ve been in that spot for awhile now and struggled with teams far worse than Las Vegas as we mentioned. The Raiders would like nothing better than to knock off the big boy in the AFC West to end their season. We expect a great effort from LV in what should be a very tight game. Take the points. |
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01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - We were hoping this line would be lower than it is given the circumstances but the oddsmakers know what they’re doing and aren’t fooled by the Mavs current 7-game winning streak. Don’t get me wrong, winning 7 in a row in the NBA is difficult, but the Mavs have faced a soft stretch of teams and only one of those foes has a current winning record. In fact, those 7-teams have a combined record of 98-170 on the season. We like playing elite teams off a loss and the Celtics were embarrassed last time out against the Thunder in a 117-150 beat-down. Not one of the 23 or more win teams in the NBA have a losing straight up record this season when coming off a loss. There are 7 teams in the league right now that have 23+ wins and they are a combined 59-40 SU when coming off a loss. Boston holds advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the season and have better overall point differentials. Boston will get back on track tonight with a solid road victory in Dallas. |
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01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor -5 over TCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Bears were embarrassed at Iowa State in their most recent game losing 77-62 @ Iowa State as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bears played that game without one of their best players, LJ Cryer, who averages 15 PPG on the season. He’s back for this game and we expect a big bounce back from Baylor after shooting well below their average in their ISU loss hitting only 37% of their shots (they average 47%) and just 22% from beyond the arc (they average 35%). This team has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 22019 season. Now they are back at home where they average 87 PPG on 49% shooting with a perfect 7-0 record on the season. Going back further, Baylor has been dominant at home to say the least winning 47 of their last 50 games! TCU steps into this game with a 12-1 record having won 10 in a row. Problem is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (355th SOS) and they haven’t played a true road game yet this season. Almost half of their games (6) have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300. Despite playing an easy schedule, TCU has struggled to shoot the ball ranking 150th in FG% and 339th in 3 point FG%. Last year Baylor was favored by 10 at home in this game and won by 10. This year we’re getting them off a loss and at a discounted price. Lay it with the Bears. |
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01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here. |
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01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Johns +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge home game for STJ who has gotten off to a rough 1-3 start in Big East play. The Johnnies are coming off a poor performance @ Seton Hall where they were a 3.5 point dog and lost 88-66. In that game they underperformed on both ends of the court making only 41% of their shots and 22% of their triples. ON the defensive end they allowed the Hall to make 54% from the field. We expect them to bounce back at home where they are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points vs Xavier who is ranked in the top 20 and just beat #2 UConn by 10 points. Marquette is on the east coast for their 2nd game in 4 days after upsetting Villanova (who now is just 7-7 on the season) on Saturday. The Golden Eagles trailed for much of the 2nd half but pulled out a 68-66 win. Marquette has a solid 11-4 record but they’ve only played 3 true road games and lost 2 of those with their only win coming by 2 points as we discussed. The Eagles were dominated on the boards on Saturday (-11) and we anticipate the same here as STJ is the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Marquette ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The host in this series has covered 10 of the last 12 and we like the desperate home underdog in this game. |
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01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team. |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
#122 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants -5.5 vs Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Hindsight is 20/20 of course but one team we looked long and hard at playing against last week was the Colts. They have a lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday, they have a revolving door at quarterback and were so desperate they played Nick Foles last week against the Chargers. Foles was 17/29 for 143 yards and 3 INT’s. There is a very good chance this team has tanked it for the season in an effort to nab a QB early in the draft next season. The Colts have lost 5 straight games and have THE worst road differential in the NFL at minus -10.8PPG. The Giants on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and need to win this home game. New York has faced a tough gauntlet of games in recent weeks and steps way down in talent here. The Colts weakness defensively is their rush D which allows 122.2 rushing yards per game which is 20th in the NFL. The Giants average 144.9 rushing yards per game which is 6th best. This Colts offense ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every key statistical category including total yards per game gained and scoring as they average just 16.5PPG. New York will bounce back here off that disappointing loss to the Vikings in which they outgained the Vikings by +92 yards but ended up losing late. Indianapolis lays down here in an ugly loss. |
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01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions -6 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -6 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Lions are fighting for a playoff spot and we expect them to play well at home on Sunday. They are coming off an embarrassing effort last week getting trounced @ Carolina in their 2nd consecutive road game after winning @ NYJ a week earlier. This Detroit offense has been fantastic at home averaging 32 PPG and should have their way vs a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 33 PPG over their last 8. The Lions have averaged 3.15 points per possession at home which is the best rate in the NFL. The Bears offense hit their stride from late October to late November but they’ve hit a wall over the last month. They have not topped 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging just 15 PPG during that stretch. They’re going to have to do a lot better than that here to stay in this game. Chicago has been outscored by 84 points since week 8 which is the worst point differential in the NFL over that time span. Chicago has nothing to play for and they’ve lost 8 straight so it looks like they’ve thrown in the towel. Especially over the last 4 weeks when their offense has gone in the tank. Detroit defense prior to last week’s loss @ Carolina had really started to play well holding 5 straight opponents below their scoring average. We like the Lions to win this one by at least a TD. We don’t think Chicago will be able to keep up. |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Michigan was in the College FB Playoff last year and got thumped 34-11 by UGA & they were down 27-3 at half. The players admitted last year they had a bit of a “just happy to be here” mentality as the Wolverines weren’t expected to be that good coming off a losing season the year prior. This year they are saying all the right things and completely focused on atoning for that loss and comfortable being where they are as they expected it. TCU is potentially this year’s Michigan so to speak. Their odds were 200 to 1 to win the National Championship prior to the season and the Frogs had a brand new coaching staff. No way they expected to be here and none of their coaches or players have ever been in this situation. Advantage Michigan in that regard. On top of that, TCU was a team that was behind or tied at half 5 times this season and trailed 5 times in the 4th quarter and had to make comebacks. They needed a number of breaks just to get here. Michigan, on the other hand, only trailed once in the 4th quarter this year (by 4 points early in the 4th vs Illinois) and they have the #1 PPG differential in college football with an average final score of 40-13. They are also in the top 4 in YPP and YPG differential and TCU ranks 13th and 24th in those 2 stats. The Wolverines 3rd ranked defense will be the best the Frogs have faced. In fact, TCU faced SEVEN defenses ranked outside the top 95 this season and the average ranking of the defenses they faced this year was 88th. On the other side, TCU’s defense is ranked 74th nationally and they are facing a balanced Michigan offense that runs and passes for 200+ yards and averages 40 PPG. We like Michigan’s experience here not to mention they are the better team. Lay it. |
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12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We like this veteran MTSU squad at home off a loss on Thursday. They were beaten by Charlotte (10-3 record) on the road as a 2 point dog. At home this year they are 4-1 with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. The Blue Raiders have one of the top home court advantages in CUSA as they’ve won 21 of their last 22 here at home. This is an MTSU team that finished with a 26-11 record last year and has 7 of their top 9 players back from that team. WKY is in a free fall right now losing 3 straight games after starting the season 8-1. Those 3 losses came vs teams ranked 257, 198, and 178 including an 11 point loss @ Louisville which currently has a 2-11 record with their only other win coming by 6 vs Florida A&M who is one of the worst teams in the country. Unlike MTSU who has most of their players back, Western KY returns only 2 of their top 8 players from last season. Western is 8-4 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this season having not faced a single top 100 team and all but one of their wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 2-2 on the road but their 2 road wins were down to the wire vs Eastern KY and Austin Peay, both ranked outside the top 240. The Blue Raiders won both games last year (by 8 on the road and by 17 at home) and with basically the same team in tact, we like them to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -1.5 over NC State, Friday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. They have won 27 of their last 33 home games and where this line sits at -2 they really just need to win this game. The Tigers are +14 PPG at home this season and they’ve topped 3 top 100 teams at home. 5 of their 7 game wins have come by at least 10 points and they are facing an NC State team that has played one true road game this season losing @ Miami FL by 7 points. With that 1 road loss, the Wolfpack have lost 8 of their 11 road games since the start of last season which includes a 5 point loss @ Clemson last season. Versus higher level competition this season, NC State has a 3-3 record vs top 100 teams while Clemson is 3-1 vs top 100 teams. The Tigers have one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 28th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG%. At home they are hitting nearly 45% of their 3’s this year which make them very tough to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum where they have a PPG differential of +14 this season. If the Tigers are attempting to salt this game away at the FT line late, we’re looking at a team that hits 77% of their FT attempts. We like Clemson to win at home and cover on Friday evening. |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -7.5 vs Pittsburgh, Friday 2 PM ET - Pittsburgh closed the season on a nice 4-0 SU streak, but it came against some weak competition. In fact, the Panther are 8-4 on the season but only 2 of those wins came against teams with above .500 records. Excluding Rhode Island, the teams Pitt beat this season have a combined 36-45 SU record. The Panthers have some solid defensive numbers, but again a soft ACC schedule has a lot to do with that. Pitt has not faced an offense like UCLA’s (3rd YPG) this season. In fact, the closest offense they faced this year would be North Carolina (17th total YPG) and they lost that game by 18-points. UCLA ranked 3rd in college football this season in yards per game gained at 510, 38th in passing YPG, 4th in rushing as they pounded 246RYPG to average 39.6PPG (10th). The Bruins offense put up a gaudy 6.8 yards per play which was 7th best in the nation. At first glance, it seems the Bruins defense struggled this season but let’s not forget the Pac 12 had 5 offenses that ranked 18th or higher in total YPG gained. The big player news for both teams clearly favors the Bruins as QB Thompson-Robinson, RB Charbonnet (4th in the nation in rushing yards) and WR Allen are all expected to play. Pittsburgh will be without QB Slovis, RB Abanikanda and defensive tackle Kancey, all three key players to this Panther roster. UCLA is looking to win 10-games for the first time since 2013 and should get a convincing win here against an overrated Pitt team. |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
#256 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State -9.5 over Oklahoma, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - We know FSU is extremely happy to be in this bowl game having not played in the post-season since the 2019 season and not won a bowl game since the 2017 season. This game is in Orlando as well which will give FSU a solid home field (crowd) advantage. The Noles have some serious momentum winning 5 straight to end the season and their star QB Travis has stated he will be back next season. FSU was among the best teams in the country this season and their +2.2 YPP differential and +170 YPG differential was very impressive. It could be argued they are better than their 9-3 record as they outplayed 2 of their opponents in tight losses outgaining Clemson by 90 yards (lost by 6) and NC State by 80 yards (lost by 2). The Noles haven’t lost a game since mid October. Oklahoma had a very disappointing season. They were expected to be the top team in the Big 12 and contend for a spot in the Final 4. None of that came close to happening and they finished the regular season with a 6-6 record. While FSU is motivated in this game, we’re not so sure the Sooners will bring their “A” game here. This program is used to being in much bigger bowl games and this is a big step down for them. They will have to play this game without their All American RB Gray (1400 yards rushing) and both starting OT’s have left the program. When they faced a bowl team this year, OU was 1-4-1 ATS and outgained by 40 YPG. When they played against the top 3 teams in the Big 12 (only 3 teams rated in final playoff rankings), they lost all 3 by an average score of 48-19 and they were outgained by a combined 660 yards in those losses. We like FSU by double digits. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
#247 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas +3 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Love this spot for KU. First of all, they are thrilled to be here in the Liberty Bowl having not played in a bowl game since 2008. Arkansas we’re not so sure. We take that back, we’re actually pretty positive they aren’t overly excited about this bowl game. That’s because they finished 9-4 last year, won their January 1st bowl vs Penn State, and had very high aspirations coming into this season. A 6-6 season and a bid to the Liberty Bowl is not what they expected. The Razors have had as many defections as any team in college football which speaks to their probable lack of excitement for this game. All together, players who started a combined 95 games — 50 on offense and 45 on defense — for the Razorbacks will not play against Kansas. That is more than one-third of their total starts on both sides of the ball. The Razorbacks who won’t play against Kansas accounted for 3,410 offensive snaps (34.3% of all snaps), 2,583 defensive snaps (26.0%) and 787 special teams snaps (19.3%) according to Pro Football Focus. Not only is the motivation factor heavily in favor of the Jayhawks, their stats for the season were simply better as well. KU had a +1.2 YPP differential while Arkansas was -0.2 and believe it or not, according to the Sagarin ratings, Kansas actually played the tougher strength of schedule (4th vs 23rd). Jayhawk starting QB Daniels missed 5 games this season and they were 1-4 in those games. In the games where he started and played to the end, KU was 5-2. He’s back and healthy for this one which should be a big boost to the offense and they are facing an Arkansas defense that finished the season ranked 123rd nationally. Kansas had their struggles on defense as well, however with Arkansas missing a multitude of weapons, including 3 starting WR’s and TE, we’re not sure they can take complete advantage in this one. Jayhawk HC Leipold was an absolute fantastic post-season coach at the D3 level leading UW Whitewater to a ridiculous 6 National Championships. When he took over a downtrodden Buffalo program, he led them to 3 bowls (2-1 record) winning his last 2 by a combined score of 48-19. He’ll have this team more than ready to go on Wednesday. We like Kansas to win this game outright and getting +3 is a bonus cushion. |
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12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
#481 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers -4 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Indianapolis has to be mentally shot coming into this game. After blowing their 33 point lead last week @ Minnesota (Led 33-0 at half and LOST) they are officially out of the playoff race. They also lost RB Taylor for the season in that game and will not now be starting Nick Foles at QB, their 3rd different starter this season. He has not taken a snap in a game this season. Not much to play for here and we wouldn’t expect a high level effort here from a team that has massively underachieved this season. Since beating Las Vegas in interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s debut, the Colts have lost 4 straight getting outgained in each game. Their defense has allowed 117 points in the last 3 games (39 PPG) and the Indy offense had been held under 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Even their offensive “breakout” last week vs the worst defense in the NFL (Minnesota) was aided by 2 non offensive TD’s so the offense really only scored 17 points. The Colts have scored a touchdown on 12.7% of their drives, tied with the Broncos for the lowest rate in the league. The Chargers are starting to play well winning 3 of their last 4 games. They are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot and a win here, plus a few other things that need to happen, could take care of that. The last 2 weeks LA has topped Miami & Tennessee outgaining those 2 by a combined 400 yards. The Chargers are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and we have a HUGE edge at QB here with Herbert vs Foles. Lay it. |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Denver has started playing much better in recent weeks covering 3 straight. Their offense has scored 52 points the last 2 weeks combined which is more than they put up the previous 4 weeks combined. In their last 3 games they led the entire way @ Baltimore before a Raven’s FG with under 1 minute remaining gave them a 1 point win, they lost by 6 at home vs KC and had the ball in Chiefs territory late with a chance to win, and then last week they beat Arizona 24-15. Since week 10, this Denver offense has scored TD’s on 80% of their red zone drives which is 1st in the NFL. Their defense remains very good ranking 4th in both total defense and YPP allowed. While the Bronco’s offense is starting to peak, LA’s offense continues to stink. They rank dead last in the NFL in total offense, YPP, and 31st in scoring at 16 PPG. Last week vs Green Bay the Rams tallied 156 TOTAL yards on 3.6 YPP and put up 12 points. QB Baker Mayfield was terrible completing just 12 total pass for barely 100 yards. A week earlier LA had 3 points vs a bad Raider defense with less than 4:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s for 17 total points. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL and we just don’t see much offense for LA. Mayfield has been bad all year completing under 60% of his passes and ranking right at the bottom of the league in QBR. LA has very little to NO home field advantage and with this game being on Christmas Day we suspect that it will be even less. Russell Wilson is back under center and while he’s had a disappointing season, his 2 highest QBR ratings were his last 2 games so he’s trending up along with the Denver offense. We like Denver to win this game by more than a FG. |
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12-24-22 | Lions v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Detroit Lions, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Detroit is a bit overvalued right now after winning 6 of the last 7 and covering 7 straight. Now they are favored on the road vs a team that, like them, is still battling for a playoff spot. In fact, if Carolina wins out, they are in the playoffs so still a ton to play for. Detroit hasn’t been a road favorite yet this season and in their last 20 road games they’ve been favored once and lost that game outright. Last week they won by 3 vs the Jets but that took a late 51 yard TD. Historically this Detroit team has been horrendous as a road favorite with a spread record of 22-40 ATS in that role since 1980. Since firing HC Matt Rhule, Carolina has actually played quite well. Prior to last week’s loss they had won 3 of their previous 4 games. The Panthers are coming off a loss as a home favorite vs Pittsburgh while Detroit is coming off a road dog upset win over NY Jets which sets this up very nicely for the home team. Carolina is a bit undervalued right now getting points at home despite covering 6 of their last 8 games. This line looks to easy to take the Lions as we expect many will. We’ll take the home dog as teams getting points at home are 49-37 ATS on the year with underdogs in general covering almost 55% of the time in 2022. Tough spot for Detroit in their 2nd straight on the road after an upset win last week. |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order. |
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12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain. |
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12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win. |
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12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan +4 over San Jose State, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have SJSU as a 1 point favorite on a neutral site so we feel the value is with EMU in this game. The Spartans have been trending down and overvalued for over a month now. They’ve lost 6 straight ATS by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were outgained by 4 of their last 6 opponents winning the stat sheet vs Nevada (2-10 record) and Hawaii (3-10 record) only. Their only wins since early September were vs Hawaii, Colorado St, and Nevada three teams who have a combined 8-29 record. EMU, on the other hand, is playing their best ball of the season right now winning 6 of their last 8 games with a spread record of 5-1-1 their last 7. The offense hit their stride down the stretch scoring 30+ points in three crucial games to end the season. This is also a team that beat Arizona State on the road earlier in the year and outgained the Sun Devils by 116 yards, prompting ASU officials to fire head coach Herm Edwards immediately after the game. EMU head coach Chris Creighton has been fantastic as an underdog going 3-1 ATS in bowl games and 35-10 ATS his last 45 getting points. The Eagles are the much more balanced offense rushing for 144 YPG and passing for 218 YPG. SJSU can’t run the ball averaging only 92 YPG (125th nationally) so they can be one dimensional on offense not great when your offensive line ranks 114th in sacks allowed per game. EMU is making this out to be a huge game for their program. They are looking to win their first bowl game since 1987. This game is being played in Boise which is in the same conference as San Jose State so we can’t imagine this is a rewarding bowl for that program. Take the points in this one. |
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12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Rams +7 vs Green Bay Packers, 8:20 PM ET - These two teams had much higher aspirations this season and both have clearly fallen short. There isn’t a big difference between these two teams so we have to side with the Dog and the points here. The Rams are higher rated than the Packers when it comes to defensive DVOA rankings #14 whereas the Packers are 23rd. Green Bay holds the advantage offensively ranking 11th in DVOA while the Rams are 26th. The Rams have a negative differential of minus -6PPG which is one of the worst numbers in the NBA but the Packers aren’t much better at minus -3PPG which is 25th in the league. Green Bay has historically dominated in Lambeau but this season they have a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. The Packers have already lost to the Titans and Jets at home and narrowly beat the Patriots. The Rams have two bad road losses on their resume to the 49ers and Chiefs and the Packers aren’t on that level. The other road games for the Rams are a 7-point loss at New Orleans, lost by 3 at Tampa and beat the Cardinals. Baker Mayfield had a week to learn more of the Rams system and should be better prepared for this road contest. Grab the points. |
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12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win. |
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12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#217 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET - This game is in Frisco, TX giving UNT a slight home field advantage but we still like Boise to roll. The North Texas program is in a bit of chaos after firing their head coach Littrell despite making the CUSA Championship game. That spot was just filled by an assistant coach from Washington State just a few days ago leaving the current coaching staff in limbo. The Mean Green were trending downward to close the season failing to cover their last 3 games and getting blown out in 2 of those games. They were 1-5 SU this year vs teams with winning records and in their 5 losses they were beaten by a combined score of 212 to 119 or an average final score of 42.5 to 23.8. They were outgained by over 600 yards in those 5 losses. Boise turned their season around once they switched QB’s and went with Green under center and hired longtime NFL coach Dirk Koetter to call plays. Once they settled on Green as the starter, the Broncos went 6-2 from that point on with their only losses coming vs BYU and Fresno in the MWC Championship game. They already had a great defense and with Green as the starter they averaged 32 PPG making them very tough to beat. The BSU defense has a HUGE advantage in this game ranking 6th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense allowing 18 PPG compared to the UNT stop unit that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and scoring defense allowing 31.5 PPG. Boise rolls in this one. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -7 vs Miami Dolphins, Saturday 8:15pm ET - At first look this may seem to be a lot of points to lay in a divisional showdown, but in reality, it’s not. Consider the Bills were minus -4-points in Miami earlier this season which should have them as double-digit favorite in this game. Buffalo lost the first encounter this season despite outplaying the Phins by a wide margin. Buffalo had 497 total yards in the game to Miami’s 212 yards. The Bills had twice as many first downs (31-15), nearly 3 times the rushing yards (115-41) and 382 passing yards to the Dolphins 171, yet still lost. The Bills blew numerous red zone chances and essentially handed Miami the win. Things will be different this time around as the Bills are at home, in a cold, windy and wet environment. This Miami team that has played four straight games in warm weather are also playing their 3rd road game in as many weeks. After putting up some gaudy offensive numbers against four weak defenses in a row, the Phins were brought back to Earth against the 49ers and Chargers the past two weeks. Today they get a Bills defense that is nearly as good as the 49ers in terms of efficiency. The Bills offense is 2nd in yards per game gained, 6th in passing, 8th in rushing and score the 4th most points in the NFL. Miami is 20th in YPG allowed, 23rd vs. the pass and give up 24PPG which ranks them 23rd. Buffalo has covered 7 of the last ten meetings at home and have the best home point differential in the NFL at +16.8PPG on their home field. In this payback setting we like the Bills big. |
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12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks +3 over San Francisco 49ers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Rookie QB Purdy has been very successful in his first 2 appearances in the NFL coming in relief 2 weeks ago to beat a faltering Miami team and then topping TB last week. Both of those games were at home. Now, if he plays, he’ll be making his first road start which is a whole different scenario. Not only that, he is not 100% with an oblique injury and there is a chance he won’t be able to go on a short week. If he can’t, it’s journeyman Josh Johnson who was just added to the roster last week. San Fran has had a very favorable schedule as of late with a grand total of ONE road game since November 1st before traveling to Seattle for this one. The Seahawks are in must win mode if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. They’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 and they’ve been competitive with 5 of their 6 losses coming by one possession. Seattle has been a house of horrors for the Niners with the Seahawks winning 12 of the last 14 both SU & ATS at home. We’re getting QB Geno Smith who is still 5th in the NFL in QBR vs either a rookie or a 4th stringer. The Niners are becoming a bit overvalued after winning 6 straight games now laying over a FG on the road with a rookie QB making his first road start, if he can even go. We’ll take the points. |
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12-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 120 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Wild Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - Plus money is in the +115 range on this one as of early morning Wednesday. The Wild are in a great spot for a home rout here. Detroit is in 2nd game of a B2B and had top goalie Husso in goal last night. The Red Wings lost key player Dylan Larkin to injury in last night's game versus Carolina also. That is a key blow to a team that was already struggling to score goals. Though it is uncertain how much time Larkin will miss it has been announced already that he will not play in tonight's game. This is a revenge game for the Wild as they lost to the Red Wings earlier this season and we expect Minnesota will take full advantage of the situation. Detroit has lost 3 straight games and has scored an average of only 1 goal per game in this 3-game losing streak. The Wild have won 8 of 11 games and have scored an average of 3.7 goals per game during this stretch. This one shapes up to be a complete mismatch which is, of course, the reason the Wild are 2 to 1 favorites on the money line. The value comes into play here by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line and getting a plus money return as a result. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Minnesota is the value play here. |
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12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro +4.5 over Marshall, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marshall steps into this game with a 9-1 record but we feel they are vastly overvalued right now due to that mark. The fact is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far with a SOS rank of 348th out of 363 teams. This will be their 3rd straight road game since last Thursday having played Duquesne and Robert Morris (both in Pittsburgh) on the road on Thursday & Saturday. UNCG doesn’t have the record that Marshall does (4-6 SU) but they’ve played the much tougher slate so far this season (Top 100 SOS rank). They’ve also been on the road for 3 weeks as this is the Spartans first home game since November 22nd. They are coming off their most complete performance of the season last Tuesday nearly knocking off Arkansas, the #9 ranked team in the nation, on the road. UNCG led at halftime and the Razorbacks first lead of the 2nd half came with under 9:00 remaining in the game and the final margin of 7 points was the largest of the game for Arkansas. The Razorbacks attempted 33 FT’s in the game to just 11 for Greensboro and the Spartans still nearly pulled the upset. Marshall has some gaudy offensive numbers but they haven’t played a defense with a pulse yet. The Herd hasn’t faced a defense ranked inside the top 140 in adjusted efficiency and 8 of their 10 opponents have defense ranked outside the top 200 in that metric. UNCG ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just held a potent Arkansas offense to 65 points, 15 points below their season average. We’re getting value with this number. If this game was played to open the season, UNCG would absolutely be favored with Marshall coming off a year in which they went 12-21 last season. The Herd are in a tough spot here and favored on the road vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. Take the points. |
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12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight. |
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12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points. |
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12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night. |
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12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here. |
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12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here. |
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12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire. |
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12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - NFL teams off shutout losses have long been a very strong play the following week. Since 2015 teams that get shutout one week have a spread record of 26-12-3 ATS the following week. As an underdog off a shutout loss, those teams are 71-55-2 ATS the last 128 games that fall into that situation. New Orleans lost @ San Francisco 13-0 last week and we like them to cover here. Despite the 13-0 final, the Saints played a very good San Fran team pretty even. They each averaged 4.9 YPP but the Niners rank 14 more offensive snaps due to 2 New Orleans turnovers. On top of that, the Saints missed a FG, fumbled at the SF 6-yard line and were shut out on downs at the SF 4-yard line so they definitely had their chances. New Orleans is much better than their 4-8 record with a YPP differential of +0.5 which ranks 8th the league. Tampa is 14th in that category at +0.09. The Bucs are off an loss in OT vs a below average Cleveland team and since starting the season 2-0, in their last 9 games Tampa is 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. Their 3 wins during that stretch have come by 3, 5, and 6 points vs teams that have a combined record of 14-19. They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 76 points or 8.4 PPG as they continue to be overvalued. In the first game this season, TB won 20-10 but they were outgained 4.7 YPP to 4.0 YPP and gifted 5 turnovers by the Saints including a 68 yard pick 6. Prior to that New Orleans had won 7 of the previous 8 match ups. Tampa is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less this year and we like the Saints to get this cover on Monday night. |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Line value with Jets here in our opinion. This number basically says these 2 are even on a neutral field which we disagree with. Minnesota has the better record at 9-2 but they remain vastly overrated. They have a negative YPP differential and their point differential is just +5 on the season despite their 9 wins. There are 12 teams in the NFL that have better point differential than Minnesota and 29 teams that have a better YPP differential. That’s right, the Vikings rank 30th in YPP differential at -0.84 and the Jets rank 9th at +0.35 and NY has played the more difficult schedule. In their last 2 games, Minnesota was rolled at home by Dallas 40-3 and then “bounced back” to beat New England 33-26 but the Vikes were outgained by a whopping 2.0 YPP in that win. They allowed 26 points and 7.4 YPP to a Patriots offense that had 10 points on just 4.7 YPP on Thursday vs Buffalo. HUGE edge defensive here for the Jets as they allowed 5.1 YPP (5th) while Minnesota gives up 6.3 YPP (31st). New NY QB White is an upgrade over a struggling Wilson and while we don’t expect the huge numbers he had last week vs Chicago, he’ll do enough vs a Minnesota defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (31st) to get the Jets a win here. We’ll take the points with the Jets on Sunday |
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12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
#321/322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -7.5 over UNC, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We like this spot for Clemson off a 1 point loss to a surging South Carolina team as a double digit favorite. It wasn’t a terrible loss by any means vs a surging Gamecocks team who had won 3 of their last 4 games including a 63-38 win over a top 5 Tennessee team. The Tigers blew a 9 point second half lead in that game and head coach Dabo Swinney made all of his coaches put in extra film time after that loss in preparation for the ACC Championship game. Clemson is very well coached and we feel they’ll play outstanding in this game after last week’s result. UNC is trending downward for sure. They have lost back to back games vs teams using back up QB’s. The Heels lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team 21-17 on November 19th and the Jackets were without their starting QB Sims in that game and lost their back up during the game. UNC followed that loss up by getting beat again at home last Saturday by NC State who played their 3rd string QB Finley and he had only appeared in one other game this season. The offense, particularly, QB Maye looks like they are running out of gas. They struggled to put up yardage each of the last 2 weeks (350 and 365 total yards) and now they face one of the better defensive fronts in college football. Maye’s numbers have dropped off drastically the last 2 weeks as he has completed just 57% of his passes for 215 YPG through the air. Clemson with a huge edge defensively here (24th in total D to 117th for North Carolina) and they have a solid coaching advantage. Clemson is used to playing in big games like this and we like them to win by double digits. |
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12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread. |
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12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron +12 over Buffalo, Friday at 1 PM ET - The Bulls were playing for a spot in the MAC Championship game last weekend and with a win over Kent they would have been in. They blew a 14 point lead with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game and then lost in OT. This is a really tough bounce back spot for them even if they need this one to get to 6 wins on the season. It was a meaningless road game for Kent as they were already out of bowl contention and their starting QB Schlee came into that game injured. He only took a few snaps and the Golden FlashThe Flashes played 3 separate QB’s in that game, one of which hadn’t played a snap this season. Even with that, Kent still was able to win the game and outgain Buffalo in the process. The Bulls are catching an Akron team that is playing their best football of the season. Last week the Zips went into Northern Illinois as a 9 point dog and won the game outright 44-12! It wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the Huskies by 250 yards. They have now outgained their last 4 opponents and they’ve shown zero quit as the season comes to an end. Last week the Zips were without their starting QB Irons but their back up Undercuffler, who threw for over 6,000 career yards as a starter at Albany prior to transferring, looked great last week passing for 312 yards and 3 TD’s. Despite their records (Akron 2-9 / Buffalo 5-6) the Zips have very similar overall stats (-1.0 YPP differential to Buffalo’s -1.2 YPP differential / Akron -38 YPG and Buffalo -15 YPG) and we’re getting double digits. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in over a month (October 23 was their last win) and Akron continues to fight with their win last week and 5 of their last 7 losses coming by single digits. Take the points on Friday afternoon. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number. |
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11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one. |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle. |