Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
We're going to grab the points and the Broncos (+) on Monday night is this big AFC West rivalry. Both teams come into tonight's game having lost two straight games but both results were misleading. Denver outgained both foes but turned the ball over 6 times and blew several scoring opportunities. Kansas City on the other hand was outgained in both games by a total of 268 yards and they were plus one in total turnovers. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Broncos have a decided advantage with the 4th best DEFF rating in the NFL compared to KC's 24th. The Broncos allow just 4.5 yards per play compared to 6.1YPPL allowed by the Chiefs. Denver's defense is giving up just 258YPG this season which is on par with the Steelers who just held KC to 13 points and 251 total yards. Offensively the Chiefs hold an edge with the #1 ranked offensive efficiency numbers while the Broncos are 22nd. A big reason for Denver's poor overall OEFF numbers are their turnovers this season so if they value the football, it will translate to better numbers and obviously more wins. This is a great spot to take an undervalued 'dog' with a great defense getting a full TD. The Broncos are 14-5 ATS (15-4 SU) their last 19 division road games. Since 2012, home division favorites on MNF are a horrendous 3-12-2 ATS (20%) and road teams on MNF that have lost 2+ consecutive games are 11-3 ATS. In this rivalry the Chiefs have been favored by 7 or more points just three times since 1980. The play here is the DOG and points - DENVER BRONCOS! |
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10-29-17 | Vikings -10 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -10 over Cleveland, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET The Browns have been competitive at times at home this year, but when they venture away from Cleveland they have been beaten soundly. The only exception to that is a 3-point loss @ Indy who many feel is the worst team (yes worse than Cleveland) in the NFL. Their other games away from home were double digit losses @ Baltimore and @ Houston. The Browns are off a disappointing OT home loss to Tennessee. Now they must travel to London in a somewhat meaningless game for a team that is 0-7. The Browns have now lost 23 of their last 24 games and they are just 8-16 ATS in those games. This is a team that has led for a grand total of 2 SNAPS this season. Their offense has been terrible topping 18 points only once the entire season. They rank dead last in the NFL in offensive efficiency. On top of that they will be without their best offensive linemen (Joe Thomas) who is arguably their best player as well. It won’t get any better here facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 4th in total defense (283 YPG) and YPP defense (4.6). Only one team has reached 20 points on this Viking defense this year and that was Pittsburgh. The Vikings are fighting for the NFC North title while Cleveland has nothing to play for in London. We expect the Browns to do next to nothing offensively and Minnesota to pick up an easy win early on Sunday. |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A & M Aggies (+) over Mississippi State Bulldogs, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET: Game #208 |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +5 v. Eagles | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -113 | 56 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +5 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET These two met in the season opener and Philly won 30-17. Since that opening weekend loss, the Skins have lost only one time and that was @ KC in a game that was tied with 8 seconds remaining. In their loss to the Eagles, Washington played their worst game of the season with 4 turnovers. Two of those were in Eagle territory, one was a fumbled punt, and one was fumble return for a Philly TD. In other words, the turnovers made a huge difference in the outcome of the game as they usually do. Washington QB Kirk Cousins was poor in that one but has been very good since. In his last 3 games he’s thrown for almost 1,000 yards with 8 TD’s and just 1 interception. Cousins has also been great in this spot going 9-3 ATS as a division underdog. The Eagles are getting a lot of publicity right now as the potential team to beat in the NFC. We know that situation changes almost on a weekly basis and feel the Eagles are bit overvalued right now. They did have a solid win most recently @ Carolina 28-23 but benefitted from 3 Cam Newton interceptions. Their other 3 wins, besides Washington, came against the Giants, Cards, and Chargers who have combined to win 6 games this season. As far as yards per play numbers are concerned (we feel these are most important), Washington gets the nod both offensively (6.1 to 5.9) and defensively (5.5 to 5.7). At worst, these two teams should be rated dead even on a neutral field to the 4.5 points Philly is laying here is off. Before their loss earlier this year, the Skins had won 6 straight vs the Eagles and they have a little extra motivation here. Even if they lose, we anticipate this game being close. Take the points. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET We expect a very good game from Denver after their embarrassing home effort last Sunday vs the depleted Giants. The Broncos were +146 yards in that game but turned the ball over 3 times (0 for the Giants) including QB Siemian throwing a pick 6. Denver is 3-2 on the season but their stats tell us they have outgained all 5 of their opponents this season. The Chargers began the season 0-4 but are back “home” off two road wins. They squeaked by the 1-6 Giants on the road and topped a struggling Oakland team by 1-point. The Bolts have ZERO home field advantage in LA this year and in fact, in the majority of their home tilts the opposing team has had more fans. You can expect the same here as the Bronco contingent travels well. The Chargers are 0-3 both SU & ATS at home this year. When these two met in Denver earlier this year, the Broncos came away with a 24-21 win. It wasn’t that close as Denver led 24-7 nearly midway through the 4th quarter when the Chargers added a few scores. The Broncos outgained LA 321 to 249 in the game. Denver has been a GREAT road team in division play winning 15 of their last 18 outright (14-4 ATS). We like the top defense in the NFL (261 YPG allowed) coming off a poor performance to win this game outright. Take Denver. |
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10-22-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Colts | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -3 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are absolutely the superior team here. We feel they are better than their 3-3 record while Indy isn’t as good as their 2-4 might tell us. The match up here is a mismatch. The Jags are #1 in the NFL in defensive efficiency. The Colts offense ranks 29th in efficiency. They will struggle big time to put points on the board here. Last week the Jags faced off against the #2 scoring offense in the NFL (Rams) and held them to one offensive TD. A week earlier they faced a potent Pittsburgh offense and held them to 9 points. They have held half their opponents (3) to under 10 points. Now they face the least efficient offense they’ve seen this year. On the other side of the ball, the Jags have been up and down offensively, however they should break out here against the 32nd (last) most efficient defense in the NFL. Indy has two 3-point wins vs SF & Cleveland who are combined 0-12. In their 4 losses the Colts have a point differential of minus 82! Jacksonville is off a home loss to the Rams, a game in which they outgained LA by 140 but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s. Off that loss we expect a big performance here. The Jags outgain their opponents 5.4 YPP to 5.1 for a +0.3 YPP differential. The Colts have been outgained 5.2 YPP to 6.4 YPP for a -1.2 YPP differential. Jacksonville is 2-1 on the road this year with wins @ Pittsburgh and @ Houston. This is a low number and we like the Jaguars to control this game and get the easy cover. |
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10-21-17 | Colorado v. Washington State -9.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:45 PM ET: Game #412 |
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10-20-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Play on: Boston Celtics (+2) over @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a 'L' last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don't have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston. |
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10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos -11 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -11 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants are in trouble here. They are 0-5 and have lost 3 straight down to the wire games. Now after essentially having their playoff hopes dashed they must travel west to face a rested Denver team. How is NY going to score in this one? They can’t run the ball (just 77 YPG) and that won’t change here facing a Denver team that leads the NFL allowing only 50 YPG on the ground. So they must lean on an immobile Eli Manning to try and make something happen vs a very active and athletic Denver front 7. Manning was sacked 5 times last week at home vs the Chargers and we can expect the same here. The problem is, he has nobody left to throw to. His 3 top WR’s (Beckham, Marshall, and Shepherd) are all out. Denver’s offense will run the ball and work in play action to put points on the board here. They are facing a tired Giants defense that has faced an average of 67 plays per games this year (3rd most in the NFL). That tired defense has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. If Denver gets to 24 as we expect, that should be enough to cover here vs a Giant offense that will struggle big time in this game. |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU Tigers (+) over Auburn Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #208 |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -3 over Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Panther defense has played very well all season. They just needed the offense to catch up and when and if that happened, this team would be very good. We’ll it’s happened. After scoring only 45 points over their first 3 games, the Cats have scored 60 points their last two games. Those were both road wins over New England and Detroit. After struggling early this year, QB Cam Newton has really found his groove throwing for almost 700 yards, 6 TD’s and just 1 pick his last 2 games. Last week’s win @ Detroit was close on the scoreboard (27-24) but Carolina dominated the game. They led 27-10 entering the 4th quarter and outgained the Lions by 120 yards. Philly comes in with a 4-1 record, however 3 of their 4 wins have come against the Giants, Chargers, and Cards who have a combined 3-12 record. This is also a tough spot for the Eagles going on the road in a short week. It’s also their 4th road game already this year. Carolina has played the tougher schedule and have averaged 5.5 YPP while allowing 5.1 (+0.4 YPP differential). Philly has played three of the worst teams in the NFL and they are averaging 6 YPP but allowing 6.2 (-0.2 YPP differential). Big edge defensively to the home team here and while the Eagles have better numbers offensively, the way Carolina is playing on that side of the ball right now we’re not sure there is any edge. Also, it looks like Philly will be without their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson who is in concussion protocol. That would be a huge blow to the Eagle offense. Carolina is the play on Thursday night. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +1 over KC, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET KC comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 ATS record and we feel they are overvalued at this point. Last week was one of the luckiest covers you’ll ever see as the Chiefs scored 9 points in the final 7 seconds of the game to win and cover 29-20 vs Washington. Their defensive TD as time expired was the only time KC was covering the entire game. Since their switch to Watson at QB, Houston is really playing well. They are 3-0 ATS with Watson at the helm and 2-1 SU. Their lone loss was @ New England 36-33 in a game they really outplayed the Pats. The outgained and had more first downs than NE in that game on the road. Last week, Houston beat a very solid Tennessee team 57-14 outgaining them 445 to 195! After scoring only 1 TD on 203 total yards in their opening season loss to Jacksonville, the Texans have averaged 376 YPG and 34 PPG under Watson’s direction. So the offense is clicking right now and should do well against a KC defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in total defense. Houston rates a large edge defensively (5th in the NFL) and has one of the top defensive lines in the league. That should give KC all kinds of problems with an offensive line that rates one of the weakest pass protecting unit which has already given up 16 sacks on the season. Houston won here vs KC last year 19-12 and we really like them to win this game at home on Sunday night. |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Bills are a false 3-1 in our opinion. They’ve been outgained in 3 of their 4 games (only outgained the Jets) and they are poor offensively scoring only 18 PPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they topped Atlanta on the road but a close look at the boxscore reveals they were thoroughly outplayed in that game as they were outgained by 100 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. Same with the week before at home vs Denver. Thus we have a team that has won 2 straight games outright as an underdog but has been outplayed on the field. That creates a perfect spot to go against them here. On top of that, Buffalo is playing back to back road games here and this is their 3rd trip away from home in their first 4 weeks of the season. Cincinnati is an undervalued team in our view. They started the season scoring only 9 total points in their first 2 games. They fired their offensive coordinator and replaced him with a veteran (Zampese) and they have responded with 55 points their last 2 games. Their offense is starting to click. Their defense is very solid having held 3 of their 4 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The also get one of the top defensive players back here (LB Burfict). There is a reason the 1-3 team (Bengals) are favored over the 3-1 team here. We like this spot and we’ll take Cincinnati. |
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10-07-17 | Kansas State v. Texas -4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#408 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON: Texas Longhorns (-) over Kansas State, 7 PM ET - Sometimes long-term trends are so well-known that they actually create big value in the other direction when the situation is right and that is precisely the case here. Kansas State, under head coach Bill Snyder, has long been known as a great play on team when they are a road dog. However, in this particular case, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Longhorns have played a much tougher schedule than the Wildcats have so far this season but certainly they won't be worn down here. Remember the great game the Longhorns played against USC earlier this season? That was in mid-September and was followed by a bye week. Then last week Texas finally played again and it was a Thursday game (solid win at Iowa State) so they do have a rest edge over a Kansas State team that played on Saturday. The Wildcats got the win over Baylor Saturday but the Bears have been dreadful this season. That's noteworthy because the Wildcats other wins have come over Central Arkansas and Charlotte! Kansas State lost their only tough game (Vanderbilt) and certainly the Commodores are not comparable to the Southern Cal team that the Longhorns went toe to toe with. Texas got surprised by Maryland in the season opener which proved to be a wake up call, and a good thing for the Horns. Since that loss, the Longhorns are on a perfect 3-0 ATS run. The rush defense of the Longhorns has been fantastic (41 yards per game) in their last 3 games and has allowed under 100 yards per game on the season which is 15th best in the nation. That is a major problem for K-State which averages 43 rushes per game (32nd in the country) and 243RYPG (16th). But the Wildcats impressive rushing stats are very misleading as they’ve faced Baylor (120th in rush D), Vandy (116th) and Charlotte (93rd). Kansas State to have to try and beat the Longhorns through the air with a passing attack that is averaging just 128 passing yards per game against FBS schools (Central Arkansas is an FCS school) and is 122nd out of 130 schools. The Cats are going to struggle to move the ball here and they only scored 7 points in their lone road game this season while UT has put up 97 points in their two home games this year. Home team has covered 5 straight....Look for a home blowout in this one. |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | Top | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -13 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Seattle offense finally started clicking last week putting up 27 points in Tennessee on 6.3 yards per play. The defense on the other hand was disappointing allowing 33 points to the Titans. You can bet they’ll play with passion this week after last week’s ugly performance. They should get it right against a Colt offense that has been held to 13 or under in 2 of their 3 games. Last week Indy scored 31 points on the Browns but that was the Browns. The fact is, they’ve been outgained in all 3 of their games and quite significantly vs the Rams (-148 yards) & the Cards (-123 yards). The Seattle defense allowed 17 & 9 points their first two games of the season and we like them to hold Indy down on Sunday night. The Seahawk offense should continue on their upward trend vs an Indy defense that has given up at least 28 points in 2 of their 3 games. The Colts have played one road game this year and that was a 46-9 whitewashing @ LA Rams. This is a must win for Seattle with a 1-2 record. Losses @ Green Bay and @ Tennessee are nothing to be ashamed of. The Hawks are 29-16-1 ATS (65%) at home since Russell Wilson took over at QB and we think this one has the makings of a blowout. |
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10-01-17 | Saints -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -3 over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - @ London This is just a horrible spot for the Fins. Let’s not forget this team has yet to play at home this season. They opened with a win in LA vs the Chargers, then traveled east and lost in New York to the Jets, and now they head overseas to play in London. Not an ideal situation. Their defense has been poor allowing 375 yards to the Chargers in week 1 and 336 to a bad Jets offense last week. Offensively they’ve scored just 25 points in 2 games. The two teams they’ve faced are 1-5 on the season. New Orleans is 1-2 but they’ve played 3 playoff caliber teams. They lost to New England and @ Minnesota when the Vikes were at full strength. Last week they dominated the Panthers on the road winning by 21 points. Drew Brees has been sharp with 6 TD’s and no interceptions. Neither defense is very good, however we have a big advantage offensively with the Saints. They are averaging nearly 2 yards per play more than the Fins despite playing the tougher schedule. The situational edge also favors the Saints and we’ll lay the points. |
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09-30-17 | Georgia -7.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 41-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
10* TOP PLAY ON: #179 Georgia (-) over Tennessee, 3:30 PM ET - The Bulldogs have a fantastic defense and their strength on offense is running the ball. The Volunteers weakness on defense is stopping the run. You can see where we're going here! Georgia is averaging 223.2 rushing yards per game and Tennessee is allowing 242.2 rushing yards per game. While it is true that the Vols number was impacted by the fact that they got run all over by Georgia Tech's option attack in Week 1, it is also true that the Volunteers only other tough match-up was against Florida and they allowed nearly 6 yards per carry in that game. The Yellow Jackets got to Tennessee for over 6 yards a carry too. With the Bulldogs controlling the ground game in this one (Georgia only allowing 97.5 yards per game even though they've faced tough running teams), the only question that remains is whether or not the Vols will be able to move the ball through the air effectively. The fact is that this is highly unlikely. Tennessee QB Quinten Dormady is a junior but he only had thrown 39 passes coming into this season. Now that Dormady has become "the guy" for the Volunteers he has struggled against tougher competition. Even against weaker competition, UMass last week, Dormady struggled enough that the Vols tried their freshman back-up. That didn't go well either. The Vols offensive production has been a concern as they only scored 17 points last week versus the Minutemen! Also, when Dormady faced his first truly tough test he threw three interceptions at Florida. The Bulldogs will surely present the toughest defense he has faced. Additionally, the Bulldogs are highly motivated here as they have blown back to back 17-point leads to Tennessee the past two seasons. Last year's blown lead was culminated with a 43-yard hail mary pass for the game winner for the Vols at Georgia. The Bulldogs again have the talent to get up by at least 17 points on the Vols this year. The difference is that their defense is not only not going to "break" we don't even expect it to "bend". Tennessee doesn't have the firepower, experience, or talent that recent Vols teams have had when they mounted those big comebacks versus the Bulldogs. Georgia Coach Kirby Smart has this team playing extremely well and the Bulldogs won't take their foot off of the gas in this one until the final whistle. The far superior team gets a double-digit win. |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the Chicago Bears plus the points over the Green Bay Packers. This sets up as a potential ‘rush doubling underdog’ which is ALWAYS a solid bet in the NFL. Green Bay comes into this game with one of the worst rushing offenses in the league averaging just 69 yards per game which is 30th in the NFL. The alarming part is that the lack of a ground game has come against 2 of the eight worst rush defenses in the NFL. In comparison the Bears have the 8th best rushing ‘O’ in the league at 121 yards per game and they’ve played two of the 10 best rush defenses in the NFL. Yes, the Packers have a huge advantage at the QB position with Aaron Rodgers versus Mike Glennon but a banged up offensive line for the Packers is causing major issues for Green Bay’s offense. The Pack are one of the league leaders in total passing yards per game but also rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per play which is not a good sign for Packer fans. Chicago has faced two of the league’s best offenses this season in the Falcons and Steelers and more than held their own. The Bears are 12th in total defense allowing 321YPG. The Bears with running back Howard will challenge a Packers rush defense that is 21st in the NFL in stopping the run. Take the big dog here with the rushing edge support. Thursday & Monday night underdogs are 6-0 ATS this season. |
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09-25-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +8 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Packers are really banged up. Both starting OT’s are injured which makes a huge difference. RT Bulaga may play here but he is not at 100%. LT Bakhtiari is most likely out. The top back up at both tackles spot, Jason Spriggs, was just put on IR. Rodgers will also most likely be without WR Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson looks like he’ll try to play but not 100% Defensively they will be without arguably their top player DL Daniels. Green Bay’s offense just hasn’t been able to get in synch (19 & 23 points) and won’t on Sunday with all of the injuries. They are also playing a Bengal defense that has been very good allowing just 33 points total in their two games. The Bengal offense has obviously struggled. However they do have weapons with WR AJ Green and RB Mixon and they are bound to play better. This Cincy team is backed into a corner in a must win spot with an 0-2 record. They don’t even have to win this game, just keep it to a TD or less. 6 of their last 7 losses dating back to last year have come by less than a TD. Take the points. |
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +3.5 over Baltimore - Sunday at 9:30 AM ET This game is being played in London and the Jags are very accustomed to this situation and setting. This will be the 5th straight year they’ve played in London. They have won each of the last two season’s here in London. Baltimore has never played here. That’s a big advantage to the Jags. Baltimore’s defense has looked great the first two weeks but let’s remember the offenses they have faced – Cincinnati and Cleveland. The Bengals haven’t scored a single TD yet this year while the Browns played most of last weeks’ game vs the Ravens without starting QB Kizer. It’s not an ideal situation for Baltimore either playing in this one off back to back big division games. Jacksonville is 1-1 and has played the much tougher opponents thus far beating Houston on the road and then losing at home to Tennessee last week. Despite playing a much tougher slate through 2 games, the Jags actually have the better overall numbers. They are averaging 4.9 YPP to 4.7 for Baltimore. Surprisingly Jacksonville is also better defensively allowing only 4.5 YPP to Baltimore’s 4.9. The Jaguars have played this Raven team very tough in recent years as well beating them two years ago and then losing 19-17 last year on a 54 yards Baltimore FG with just 1:00 minute remaining the game. We think this one stays tight throughout and the Birds are exposed as being an overrated 2-0 team. Jags get the win here. |
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09-23-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
TOP PLAY ON: 10* NOTRE DAME (-) over Michigan State, 8 PM ET - Michigan State will be a popular choice here but that's because the Spartans went 36-5 from 2013 to 2015 and many still have that ingrained in their memory banks. This Michigan State team is nothing like those. Not only did the Spartans go just 3-9 last season, they only returned 9 starters for that season. Now, this season, they returned just 8 starters! As you can see this team is now a shell of what is was in the 2015 season when it faced Alabama in the playoffs. More than half of the starts last season were made by seniors so there is a lot of rebuilding for the Spartans to do this year and that "rebuilding" truly hasn't begun yet. Michigan State has only faced 2 MAC team so far this season and then had a bye week. This is completely unlike the "tests" that Notre Dame has already faced. The Fighting Irish faced Georgia (and lost a tight game to that tough SEC foe) and then faced a very tough defense last week at Boston College. The loss to the Bulldogs will help Notre Dame in the long run. Losses build character and they fought hard with Georgia. Then last week against the vaunted Eagles defense, the Irish absolutely wore them down as they pulled away as the game went on and Notre Dame piled up over 600 yards in the win. By the way, the Fighting Irish also totaled over 600 yards in their week 1 win over Temple. This is a dangerous offense and Michigan State allowed 28 points per game last season. In fact, not including a game against Furman (FCS team) and Rutgers (horrible excuse for a Big Ten team), the Spartans allowed an average of 31.8 points per game. This defense is a far cry from what it used to be but they just haven't been tested yet this season as they've faced a pair of MAC teams. Even more concerning for Michigan State is that they lost the turnover battle 5-2 in those 2 games (versus Bowling Green and Western Michigan). Notre Dame is on a mission this season and they're looking to avenge last season's home loss to the Spartans. The Fighting Irish return the favor here by winning at East Lansing. When playing with revenge and coming off of a straight-up win, Notre Dame is a perfect 5-0 ATS! This is a big revenge spot for Notre Dame and a solid spot to bet them as a very small road favorite. |
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09-17-17 | Redskins +3 v. Rams | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This line was set knowing the overreaction would come in regards to the Rams 46-7 drubbing of the Colts last week. The Rams were favored by -3.5 in that game vs a team without their QB that might be the worst in the NFL. Now they are laying basically the same number to a Washington team that was in the playoffs last year? Value on Washington here. Let’s please not anoint the Rams some fantastic offense after week one. Remember this team was dead last in scoring in the NFL last year averaging just 14 PPG. While we expect QB Jared Goff to improve he’s not going to all of the sudden light up NFL defenses every week. Goff is now 1-7 as a starter. The Skins played pretty well defensively last week however on offense they struggled to say the least. Four turnovers didn’t help their cause. Keep in mind this Redskin offense was very good last year finishing 3rd in the NFL in total yardage at 403 YPG. We expect a much better performance this week with extra motivation off a shaky effort. The Rams are not used to being in the position of a favorite. In fact, they’ve been favored just 26 times since 2011 and they’ve LOST 16 of those games outright. Washington is the play here. |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee pick-em over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Tennessee comes into this game with an 0-1 record while Jacksonville is 1-0. This is a huge game for a Tennessee team that has playoff aspirations and fell just short of the post-season last year. They cannot afford an 0-2 start. Despite their 26-16 loss last week to a very good Oakland team, the stats say the two teams played an even game. One first down and nine total yards separated the two teams. The time of possession was almost even as well. The Titans had opportunities to put more points on the board but settled for FG’s twice inside the Oakland 8 yard line and also missed a FG attempt. We expect this offense to bust out this week vs the Jags. The Jacksonville defense looked great last week but keep in mind that was against a terrible Houston offense with one of the weakest QB situations in the league. The Texans are also working with a poor offensive line. Now they face a Tennessee team with an up and coming QB in Marcus Mariota and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Jags offense put up 29 points last week but was nothing special. They had only 280 total yards (4.7 YPP) and ran the ball nearly twice as much as they threw it (21 passes to 39 rushing attempts) in order to make sure mistake prone Blake Bortels did screw up the game for them. We anticipate them having to play from behind here which will take away that type of game plan. On top of that, the Jags didn’t get home from last week’s game until Tuesday afternoon due to Hurricane Irma. Their players had a distracting short week of practice having deal with the Hurricanes aftermath. Jacksonville is just 14-26-1 ATS the game following a SU win and Tennessee rolls here. |
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09-17-17 | Bills +7 v. Panthers | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We think this is a bit of an underrated team vs an overrated team after week one. Just looking that final score might tell us that Buffalo struggled a bit with the Jets last week winning 21-12. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The Bills dominated the game outgaining the Jets by nearly 200 yards. The yards per play differential was huge with Buffalo averaging 7.3 and the Jets just 4.4. This game final score should have been much more lopsided. Carolina beat a terrible SF team 23-3. Offensively the Panthers looked bad. They had only 287 total yards in the game on 4.6 YPP. Cam Newton, who only played on series the entire pre-season due to a shoulder problem, wasn’t overly sharp vs a Niner defense that ranked dead last in the NFL a season ago in YPG and PPG allowed. The game turned out to be an easy win because the Niners offense is putrid. Now they face a Buffalo offense that has a mobile threat at QB and one of the top RB’s in the league. Also you can bet Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott will put a little extra emphasis on this one after coming over from Carolina last year (defensive coordinator @ Carolina). He also has a pretty good idea of how to slow down this Panther offense. Carolina plays host to AFC South rival New Orleans next week so the intensity factor probably favors Buffalo here. While Carolina is laying a full TD in this one, let’s not forget this team was 6-10 last year! Too many points here and we grab Buffalo. |
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09-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Minnesota -9 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
#134 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota (-) over Middle Tennessee, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Golden Gophers head coach PJ Fleck is winning at Minnesota just like he was at Western Michigan! In fact he now has a regular season winning streak of 15 straight games! All but 1 of those 15 games was a lined game. Fleck's ATS record in the 14 lined games is 10-4 / 71% ATS! Look for Fleck to make it 16 straight regular season wins here while also improving that ATS run to 11-4. The Golden Gophers have a bye week on deck so there will be no holding back this week. Minnesota is coming off of a blowout win at Oregon State and their ground game really got rolling against the Beavers. The Golden Gophers are now averaging 211 rushing yards per game on the young season and, on Saturday, they are hosting a Middle Tennessee State team that is averaging only 71.5 rushing yards per game. That certainly could be an issue for the Blue Raiders as their QB is banged up. MTSU QB Brent Stockstill is a key player but even if he plays this week he is unlikely to be 100% and with struggling to move the ball on the ground or through the air it will most certainly be a rough afternoon for Middle Tennessee. The Minnesota defense has been fantastic so far this season as they have held opponents to just 243.5 yards per game. The Golden Gophers are catching MTSU off of an upset win as a big road dog at Syracuse. That makes this a very tough spot for the Blue Raiders. The past 4 seasons Middle Tennessee had back to back games away from a home a total of 6 times. They NEVER covered both games any of those 6 times! With that said, coming off of the big cover against the Orange, look for the Blue Raiders to fall flat against the Golden Gophers! Lay the big points with Minnesota as this is an ideal spot for a home rout blowout! |
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09-12-17 | Mets v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) over New York Mets, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over Denver, Monday at 10:20 PM ET One thing we like looking for is a big edge at QB and that QB’s team is a dog. That’s what we have here. San Diego’s (just can’t get used to saying LA quite yet) Philip Rivers has had a fantastic NFL career and is one of the top signal callers in the NFL. Denver’s Trevor Siemian, not so much. While he played OK last year for Denver, he completed less than 60% of his passes. Also the big plays were lacking as Denver was 22nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at just 6.5. We give San Diego a solid edge offensively with Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, and an improved offensive line. Defensively there is not as wide a gap as some might think. While Denver has a very good defense, keep in mind the Chargers D was 7th in the NFL in efficiency last year. DE’s Joey Bosa & Melvin Ingram provide one of the top pass rushing duo’s in the league. We also have a strong situational spot here as the Chargers are THE BEST road underdog since the start of the 2004 season with a ATS record of 42-18-3! Denver, on the other hand, has been a bad home favorite with a spread record of 25-44-2 ATS (36%) since 2006. We like the Bolts to pull the “upset” on Monday night. Not much of an upset in our opinion. |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants match up very well with Dallas. Their defense, which was ranked 2nd in the NFL in efficiency last year, has shut down this high powered Cowboy offense. In fact, Dallas who had only 3 losses in the regular season last year, lost both games to the Giants. In those two games Dallas averaged just 13 PPG and 294 YPG. The Dallas offense carried this team last year while the defense was poor. If the offense is able to be slowed down, as the Giants did, this team is in trouble. We expect the Giant defense to be one of the best in the NFL again this year and we also look for their offense to be vastly improved. While Odell Beckham might have to sit this game due to an injury, remember NY added WR Brandon Marshall in the off-season which will really help. Eli is one of the top veteran QB’s in the NFL while we look for Dak Prescott to take a step back this year. It’s going to be almost impossible for Prescott to be as efficient as he was last season. The Boys are historically are one of the worst home favorites in the NFL. In fact since 2010 they ARE the worst home chalk in the NFL with a spread record of 12-30 (just 28%). On the other hand, since 2006, the Giants have the 2nd best ATS road record in the entire NFL at 53-37-3. Only the Patriots are better. We like New York to win this game outright so we’ll grab the points! |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +7 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We expect Atlanta to take a step back this year. Their offensive numbers (34 PPG) is bound to take a step back. The previous 3 years before last season this offense average 22, 23, and 21 PPG. They also lost their offensive coordinator Shanahan which will be a factor. The Falcon defense was not good last year ranking 26th in the NFL in defensive efficiency. It was a huge problem because they scored so many points. This year we see their defense costing them many more games. This is not a one year situation as this defense was 26th last year, 22nd in 2015, and 32nd in 2014 (defensive efficiency). They will be bad again this year. We’re hearing Chicago is very excited about their defense. They had some key injuries on that side of the ball last year which hurt their production. QB Mike Glennon, while not great, will be a much better option than turnover prone Jay Cutler. It may be tough Atlanta to rebound after blowing their huge lead in the Super Bowl last season. In fact, teams that lose the Super Bowl are 2-12 ATS in their opener the following year. If that opener is on the road, those numbers drop to 2-15 ATS. We think Chicago is a bit undervalued and Atlanta is definitely overvalued. The Bears will give them a run here and have a great chance to pull the upset. Take the points. |
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09-10-17 | Steelers -8.5 v. Browns | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -8.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We hate putting ourselves on the side of the public, with a road favorite but this is one of those rare occasions we'll have to bite. Last year we made this same wager and won with the Steelers (24-9) laying 8-points in Cleveland. The Steelers will once again have a potent offense with the 3-headed monster of QB Roethlisberger, RB Bell and WR Brown and could improve upon their 7th overall offensive efficiency rankings from 2016. Pittsburgh had an average point differential of +3.8PPG last season which was the 5th best number in the NFL. Defensively the Steelers weren't the Steel Curtain of the 70's but they were still solid with the 11th best overall defensive efficiency ranking. Pittsburgh allowed 16 or less points in 7 of their sixteen regular season games a year ago. The Browns will be starting a rookie quarterback in DeShone Kizer who's in for a long day against a Steelers D that was 9th in the NFL in sack % a year ago. Cleveland was bad on both sides of the football last year and don't look to be any better. In terms of OEFF and DEFF the Browns were 30th and 29th respectively in both categories and they had the worst overall point differential in the league at minus -11.8PPG. At home the Browns lost by an average of -11.5PPG. Pittsburgh has dominated this series with a 30-4 SU record the last 34 meetings and Roethlisberger is 20-2 SU lifetime. Cleveland is a horrendous 10-44 SU their last 54 versus AFC North. We'll lay the big number here. |
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09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State -10 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 39 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Boise State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #400 |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
PLAY ON: KC CHIEFS (+9.5) over New England, Thur 8:30PM ET - We will grab the points with Kansas City over New England on Thursday night. The line on this game opened around -7 and has quickly risen to minus 9 and even some minus 10 for New England at some Sports books. We like the value with a Chiefs team that finished last season at 12-5 and are coming off an upset home playoff loss to the Steelers. KC had a +4.5 average point differential last season overall and was just one of eight teams in the NFL to have a positive road differential. 4 of their five losses last season came by a combined 13-points and they won 6 straight road contests in the back half of their campaign in 2016-17. We totally understand the public money flowing in on New England as they are off last season's dramatic Super Bowl win, and let's face it, they are the Patriots. New England had a +12.3 average point differential last year but a lot of that had to do with who they played. The Jets and Bills twice, Rams, Browns, 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens...NONE of which had a winning record. In fact, those teams had a combined record of 40-86-2 or 32% winning percentage. Yes, New England has a very strong home ATS record but the Chiefs are no slouch with a 12-6 ATS mark their last 18 away from home. Based on last season's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings this game will be closer than the number indicates! |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We are going to play on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Game 5. Before the series started we predicted a Warriors sweep or win in 5 games and we'll stick with that thought process. The first two games were dominated by the Warriors at home with a total differential of plus + 41 points. Just because the Cavs won the last game in this series doesn't mean they've suddenly turned their 'defensive ship' around and can stop the Warriors here. GST had a +15.0 point differential at home during the regular season and are averaging +17.9PPG at home in the playoffs. Cleveland is allowing 1.11 points per possession in the Playoffs after allowing 1.104PPP during the regular season. In case you don't remember this from previous posts, that defensive efficiency rating of 1.104PPP ranked them in the bottom third of the NBA this season. I'm not going to be fooled by the Cavs win in the previous game as the stars aligned perfectly for them and they made shots (at home) and benefitted from 22 free throw attempts in the first quarter. FYI - the league record for most attempts in a quarter in NBA HISTORY is 32. Back at home the Warriors will shoot better as they averaged 50% shooting on their home court and allowed opponents to hit just 43%. Golden State perfect 7-0 SU at home off a loss this year and bounce back here to end the series. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
We will play the Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) at home over Golden State in Game 3 Wednesday, 8PM ET. The Warriors were obviously very good to us in the first two games of this series and we do have Golden State as our series bet but if there is one game the Cavs will win it's this one. Here's what we saw in our break down of Game 2. As the game wore on the Cavs started grabbing and holding the Warriors more and more, especially Steph Curry, and the officials swallowed their whistles. Last year, the Cavs big turning point is the series was when Dellavedova employed his 'mugging' mentality against Curry and held him to 22PPG in the Finals. On Wednesday night we expect Curry to essentially get assaulted by Cleveland and doubt the officials are going to call much. When you are watching the game pay close attention to the Warrior players OFF the ball and you'll see what I'm talking about. Yes, the Warriors were a fantastic road team this year with a 37-10 SU record, but the Cavs were 36-11 SU at home and are off two humiliating losses. Last year in a similar setting the Cavs won Game 3 at home by 30 as a -1.5 point favorite. Based on the season long numbers the Cavs shouldn't be this big of an underdog here given these circumstances. In the past two season's the Cavs have produced a 25-5 SU (83%) record when playing at home and off a loss in their previous game. Cleveland has been the most efficient offense in the playoffs at home this season by averaging 1.213 points per possession and they have a home differential of +8.3PPG. LeBron will get every call imaginable tonight and the Cavs steal a game in the series. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 2 Sun, 8 ET - We will play ON the Golden State Warriors again minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2. This is going to sound eerily like our first writeup but our base analysis remains the same. Offensively the Warriors were the #1 ranked regular season offensive efficiency team in the league averaging 1.156 points per possession. In the playoffs, they have improved that number to 1.181PPP and that uptick comes after playing the Spurs and Jazz who were 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in DEFF this regular season and have been slightly better in the post-season allowing 1.083PPP, which would still have ranked them 11th in the regular season. Don't forget the slight post-season improvement came against a Raptor and Celtics team missing their All-Star points guards in Lowry and Thomas. Defensively there is no comparison between these two teams, which was very apparent in Game 1, as the Warriors had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season, allowing just 1.04 points per possession and they've bettered that number in the playoffs allowing just 1.018PPP. The Cavs defense was thoroughly exposed in Game 1 and they can’t just ‘flip a switch’ and be great defensively in the playoffs. It just doesn’t work that way. Also, don't be fooled into thinking the Cavs are a great bet here getting points as they were just 5-1 1 as a dog this season. When coming off a loss this year the Cavs are also just a 50/50 proposition with an 8-8 SU record. Looking at the shot chart from Game 1 we see the outcome of that game could have been much worse as the Warriors missed 20-point point-blank shots in the lane and 30 overall for the game. When LeBron and the Cavs organization assembled this roster, they should have considered some defensive minded players. In last year’s Finals the Warriors won Game 1 big then came back and blew the Cavs out by 33 in Game 2. With an average point differential of plus +16.5PPG at home this year we like the Warriors chances to get another double digit win in Game 2. Lay the points. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers (-5) over the Boston Celtics, Fri 8:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the last meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. The Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and held Boston to just 91 points. In Game 1 the Cavaliers dominated the Celtics and the final score was misleading as Cleveland lead by as many as 28-points in the game. What stands out is how “poorly” the Cavs shot from beyond the arc as they hit “just” 38.8% from 3. In the post season, they are shooting just under 43% from the 3-point line. Boston had decent numbers in Game 1 and were still blown out by this Cavs team that is on a mission. Cleveland is 9-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +17-point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. If there was a game Boston was going to win this series it’s this one but we’re not about to go against this Cleveland team right now. |
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05-17-17 | Cavs -4 v. Celtics | Top | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
We will play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 over the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. Boston is coming off that grueling 7-game series with Washington and have just 1-day rest. Cleveland meanwhile has been off since May 7th and comes into this game fresh. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the most recent meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. I went back and watched that game and what stood out to me, is how the Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and how they held Boston to just 91 points. There are some bad matchups in this game for the Celtics and the Cavs have had a ton of time to figure out the best way to exploit those advantages. Cleveland is 8-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +14.9 point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. Given the circumstances we will lay the points with Cleveland on the road here. We will play OVER in the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Golden State -9.5 over San Antonio, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET We like a focused, rested and motivated Warriors team to get a big home win to open this series. Let's face it the Warriors haven't been tested but will be here so we'll get a max effort. Golden State had a home average point differential of +15.9PPG at home this year which was the best number in the NBA. In the playoffs at home that differential is +16PPG. They have won 7 of their 8 playoff games thus far by at least 10 points. Granted, the Spurs are better than the teams they've faced but San Antonio is coming off two very hard fought series against Memphis and Houston and are without Parker and a less than 100% Leonard. Golden State on the other hand is rested and ready to make a statement in game 1. The regular season meetings really don't tell us much as both teams rested players but the current situation clearly favors Golden State. Surprisingly, since the start of the 2015 season, 7 of the 9 meetings between these 2 have been decided by at least 10 points. We call for Golden State to keep that trend alive today. This line may seem high but is it? Just a few days ago San Antonio was an 8.5 point underdog @ Houston in Game 6. Now laying just one point more with the Warriors in a much better situation is hardly too many points. Lay in in Sunday with Golden State. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on the Houston Rockets (-5) over San Antonio Spurs, Game 3 Friday, 9:30PM ET. We successfully played on the Spurs in Game 2 but will flip side here with a wager on the Rockets at home. Houston played well for three quarters in the previous meeting and entered the 4th quarter down just 5-points. But unfortunately for them, the Spurs outscored them 33-13 in the 4th. San Antonio was in a must win situation at home and off and embarrassing loss so it was expected they play well in Game 2. The Spurs shot nearly 55% from the field but we doubt they can repeat that performance on the road tonight. In their 3 road games against an average Memphis team, they averaged 45% shooting from the field and went 1-2 SU. Now they travel to Houston to face a Rockets team off a poor overall showing where James Harden managed just 13-points. The Rockets have won 10 of their last twelve home games and were a perfect 3-0 SU against the Thunder in the opening round. Houston was 30-11 SU at home this year with the second best average home differential of +8.9PPG and they won 7 of nine at home when off a SU loss. Tony Parker of the Spurs was playing EXTREMELY well in the post-season and his loss will affect the team’s regular rotation. Houston gets a double-digit win here. Lay it! |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Play on Washington Wizards (-5) over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET - The Wiz are obviously down 0-2 in the series and backed into a corner here. Washington has played really well in stretches against the Celtics in the first two games, but unfortunately for them they couldn't sustain it for four quarters. Now back at home, where they were 30-11 SU with an average point differential of +4.9PPG, they'll get the added energy from their home crowd to finish quarters. The home team has won and covered all six meeting this season between these two teams and there's no reason to think that will change here. Not to mention, the Wizard are 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Boston has shot the lights out the first two games of this series by making over 51% of their field goal attempts and a combined 32 three-pointers. On the season the C's have averaged 45% shooting when playing on the road so don't expect them to continue on their torrid shooting streak in Washington. The value on this game is not what it should be and we know we are laying a premium price but it's warranted here in this situation. Take the Wizard minus the points. |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA play on the Golden State Warriors (-13) over the Utah Jazz. At first glance this seems like a daunting number for a second-round playoff game but it’s not. The Warriors are rested, dialed in and on a mission. The Jazz should let down here after a HUGE emotional road win over the Clippers. Golden State is 19-7 SU against top 10 teams in the NBA this season. Utah in that same comparison is just 14-19 SU against that level of competition this season. Granted, that’s straight up and not against the spread but it’s also a solid indicator of how these teams do against the league’s best teams. The Warriors were 36-5 SU at home this year with a ridiculous average point differential of plus +15.9PPG. They opened the playoffs with a 12-point and 29-point home wins over the Blazers. In the two regular season meetings between these two teams on this court the Warriors won the first meeting by 30-points. The second meeting was one of the last games of the season and the Warriors rested players in a throw away game, which resulted in a Jazz 6-point win. When you talk about the Jazz the first thing mentioned is defense. Utah had the 3rd best defensive efficiency in the NBA allowing just 1.053 points per possession. The problem is that Golden State is better in that same category allowing just 1.040PPP. Offensively, there is not comparison as the Warriors rank 1st in offensive efficiency averaging 1.156PPP while the Jazz are 13th at 1.096PPP. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven at home against the Jazz and Game #1 is going to be a blowout! |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - I'm not going to lie, this wager for us has been brewing since October 28th when these two teams met in Toronto and we bet the Raptors +2.5 points at home over the Cavs. Going into that game, the Raptors had all summer to stew after losing to the Cavs in the playoffs last year, and looked like a perfect opportunity to wager on the Raps as a home dog. But Cleveland won by 3-points and then proceeded to win the next two regular season meetings, before losing at the end of the season in a meaningless game at home (evidence it was meaningless as the Raptors were favored by 3 points on the road). Now the Cavs are laying a reasonable number at home considering the Raptors were just a 2-point dog in Milwaukee who is far worse than Cleveland. The Cavaliers were tied with the Spurs during the regular season with the 4th best point differential in the NBA at home of +8.1PPG. They are 75-19 SU at home the past two seasons and have a 15-10 ATS record at home in the playoffs the last two years. Since 2013 the Raptors have a playoff record of 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) which is the second worst percentage in the NBA over that span of time. The mental aspect of this game clearly favors the Cavaliers and we are betting this game plays out much like last year's playoff home games for the Cavs when they beat Toronto on this court by 31, 19 and 38 points. When we 'tweak' a couple important variables within our math model it suggests a double digit win by Cleveland. Lay it! |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - PLAY ON San Antonio -3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET We love this wager on the San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies, Game 4 Saturday, 8PM ET. The Spurs won the first two games of the series then played poorly in Game 3 and lost to the Grizzlies by 11-points. Memphis played great in Game 3 but the margin wasn’t insurmountable for the Spurs on an off day. The Grizzlies shot nearly 51% as a team, 41% from the 3-point line, 90% from the FT line and only had 5 turnovers. We like when elite teams are coming off a bad loss and with a marginal spread here this is an easy call to lay the points with the visitor. The Spurs road record of 31-11 SU this year is better than the Grizzlies 25-17 SU record. San Antonio had an average road point differential of +6.2PPG which is better than all but 6 teams HOME differentials in the entire league. That’s amazing when you really think about it! In comparison, the Grizzlies home differential was +2.1PPG which is 21st worst in the entire league. San Antonio was 16-5 SU this season when coming off a loss and an INCREDIBLE 95-30 SU (76%) off a beat since 2012. With this line being as low as it is we are basically just asking them to win this game outright and odds are when they win it will be by more than 4-points. Memphis lost a key defensive cog with the injury to Tony Allen and that’s one less defender to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Easy call here for a wager on Coach Popp and the Spurs to bounce back with a win over a mediocre Memphis team. Lay it! |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Toronto Raptors. The natural shift in this line has this number right where it should be but we felt the Bucks would be a few points higher than it is. Milwaukee outplayed the Raptors in both games in our opinion and had two 3’s rim out late in Game 2 which would have given them a lead, and could have altered that outcome putting them up 2-0 in the series. The Bucks shot just 41.4% in Game 2 after hitting 44.7% in Game 1 and now that they are back home, expect those shooting percentages to go up. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.9% at home (6th best in the NBA), and over 37% (13th) from beyond the arc. The Bucks closed the regular season out by winning 8 of their last ten home games which included a 7-point win against this same Raptors team as a 1-point favorite. Since 2013 the Raptors have the lowest ATS winning percentage in the NBA at 28.1% (9-23-1 ATS record) so it’s not like we are playing against a franchise with a solid recent history of winning in the post season. Not to mention, one of the Raptors key players, Kyle Lowry is not known as a clutch player in the postseason. Even though he made the game winner the other night, Lowry has a career playoff shooting percentage of just .381% which is well below his season averages. The Bucks were 7-3 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of -2.5-points or less and we feel they take care of business at home in Game #3. |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @TORONTO RAPTORS (-7) over Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30PM ET - We are playing on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points (-7) over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 60-22 SU at home last 2 seasons with an average point differential of 7.1PPG which is the 5th best differential in the entire NBA the past two years. They have a veteran team that is healthy right now and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. We feel the Lowry injury was a blessing for the Raptors how had the opportunity to develop some other players and build chemistry. As far as the season series is concerned, the Raptors won 3 of 4 meetings with Bucks this year and both home games were blowouts by 16 and 22 points. The young Bucks have a bright future and may win a few games in this series, just not the opener on the road. On the year the Bucks had a negative road differential of -2.9PPG which is exactly league average. Milwaukee was out-shot and out-rebounded in both games in Toronto and lost by a combined 38 total points AND that was with starter Jabari Parker in the lineup who scored 48 points in those 2 contests. Raps 5-1 ATS last six meetings and chalk has covered 21 of the last 29 between these two teams. Any way we slice it comes up Toronto in Game 1. |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs -2 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: Dallas Mavericks (-2) over Denver Nuggets, 8:35PM ET - The Denver Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion the other night at home when Russell Westbrook hit a 26-foot jumper at the buzzer to beat Denver. It's only human nature to let down here after that emotional beat. With literally nothing to play for we don't expect a focused Nuggets team to put up much of a fight here. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss and will be playing their final home game of the season and will want to reward their loyal followers with a good showing. Sure, the Mavs are just 1-4 SU their last five home games but take a look at who they played: Spurs, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Warriors. Those are five of the best teams in the NBA (excluding OKC who is good but not great). The Nuggets were recently a 2-point home favorite over the Mavs which means this line should be much higher than it currently is. The Mavs as a low chalk have been great this year with a 7-1 ATS mark when laying 3.5 or less points. Nuggets have not covered a game in Dallas in 5 straight tries! Given the circumstances this sets up to be an EASY win for Dallas! |
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04-04-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -6 | Top | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz (-6) over Portland Trailblazers, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a big game for both teams as the Jazz are fighting for the 4th spot in the West and a first round home series versus the Clippers. Portland on the other hand is fighting for the 8th and final spot in the West. At first glance this looks like a tough call but really it's not. We consider the Jazz one of the 8 best teams in the league and this is a great spot to play on them considering they are off a loss in San Antonio their last game out. Utah is 5-1 SU their last six when playing at home off a loss and all five of those victories came by 6 or more points. The Jazz are 26-12 SU at home this season with the 7th best home differential in the NBA of +6PPG. Portland is 16-24 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -3.8PPG. They have been good when playing without rest this year, but a key injury to starting center Jusuf Nurkic, has really hurt their depth and front court presence. Last night in Minny, Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Blazers bigs with a 34-point, 12 rebound night. Jazz center Rudy Gobert could put up similar numbers tonight. The home team has been the bet in this series as they hold a 5-0 ATS record and four of the five wins by the home team have been blowouts. Play on the Jazz! |
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04-01-17 | Oregon +5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon +5 over UNC, Saturday at 8:35 PM ET The Ducks run to the Final 4 has been extremely impressive as they topped one of the hottest teams in the country (Michigan) in the Sweet 16 and then beat what many considered to be the favorite to win it all (Kansas) in the Elite 8. They Jayhawks were basically at home in Kansas City and they were rolling to say the least winning their first 3 NCAA tourney games all by at least 20 points. Even with that, Oregon handled the Jayhawks by 14 points in a game that was never really in doubt. KU’s only lead of the game was 3-2. The Ducks are 33-5 on the season and 3 of their 5 losses have come by 4 points or less. UNC is obviously very good but we feel they are a bit overrated right now. This team struggled to beat Arkansas in the round of 32 and had to come from 5 points down with 5:00 to go to beat Kentucky by 2 points on a shot at the buzzer. With PG Berry not at 100%, and maybe not even close to it, we think UNC is absolutely beatable here. These two teams are very close in a number of key statistical categories and actually Oregon is the better shooting team (48.4% to 46.9%) and better defensively allowing 65 PPG on 40.7% shooting to UNC’s 71 PPG allowed and 41.7%. The Ducks athletes are absolutely on par with UNC and may actually be better. They should be able to hold their own on the defensive boards which is key vs the Tar Heels. As far as NBA talent goes, the Heels do not have an advantage as they have 2 of the top 53 prospects according the Chad Ford (Jackson & Bradley) while Oregon actually has 3 (Brooks, Dorsey, and Bell). UNC was just a 1.5 point favorite on a neutral court vs Kentucky. Based on that alone, they should be 2.5 or 3 at the very most here. We’re getting value with a very good Oregon team. Don’t be at all surprised if they pull the upset here. |
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03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors (-5.5) over Indiana Pacers. There really isn't a reason to expect the Pacers to suddenly turn around their road fortunes tonight in Toronto against a Raptors team that is really good on their home floor. Toronto is 25-13 SU on their home court this year with the 6th best average point differential in the NBA of +7.7PPG. By comparison, Indiana is just 11-26 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 8th worst in the league. The Pacers have lost 6 straight road games by an average of 13PPG, so as I said before, why would they do a 180 tonight and play well away from home? Both teams have plenty to play for as the Raptors are looking to move up in the East, while the Pacers are trying to hold on to a playoff spot. We do like the fact the Raptors are off a home loss here as they have covered 5 of their last six off a loss anyplace. They have back to back home losses just once this season and that came to a San Antonio Spurs team that is one of the best teams in the league. Toronto recently beat the Pacers 116-91 and dominated the boards 51-33. Expect much of the same tonight. |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. TCU | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +4.5 over TCU, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET We faded this Tech team on Tuesday as they were facing a red hot CS Bakersfield squad that made it to the NIT Final 4 by winning 3 road games vs 3 very good opponents. Needless to say we were impressed with the Jackets and what they were able to do vs a very good opponent. We always look long and hard at “defensive dogs” in college basketball and that’s what we have here. Tech ranks 6th nationally in defensive efficiency a full 50 spots ahead of TCU. If we look strictly at defensive eFG% it’s even more drastic as GT ranks 17th in that category while the Frogs come in at 178th. Tech’s problem at times has been on the offensive end but they look like they might be peaking on that end of the court at the right time topping 70 points in all 4 of their NIT contests. They’ve done that against 4 defenses (Indiana, Belmont, Ole Miss, and CS Bakersfield) that rank better than TCU in eFG% defense. They’ve shot over 47% from the field so far in this tourney vs 4 solid defenses. If the Jackets do that, they are obviously very tough to beat because they are a shut down team defensively. We think that offensive trend will continue tonight vs TCU. The Frogs had just one win in the Big 12 regular season vs a team that finished in the top half of the conference (Iowa State at home). That’s it. Meanwhile GT beat North Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. We expect this to be a tightly contested game throughout and the number is too high. Take the points and Georgia Tech. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON CS Baskersfield +2.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN - NIT GAME OF THE YEAR CS Bakersfield has been more than impressive during their 3 game NIT run thus far. They have won all 3 of those games on the road all vs top 90 teams. Their NIT road wins came against Cal (who was 15-3 at home with 3 losses coming to Arizona, Oregon, and Virginia), Colorado State (who was 15-4 at home), and UT Arlington (who came into the game 14-0 at home). Impressive to say the least. Those wins improved the Roadrunners road/neutral record to 13-8 on the season. They’ve proven all season long they can get it done on the road. Over the last two seasons this group is 23-16 on the road. A few of their road losses this year came vs top notch teams early in the season. They had competitive losses @ SMU, @ Arizona, and @ BYU. Their 6 point loss @ SMU, who was 18-0 at home, was their 2nd closest home win of the season. This is a HUGE deal to this team. They are rarely in the spotlight and a trip to NYC, playing on ESPN, and a chance to win the NIT is of massive importance to this veteran team (3 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up). This was the best team in the WAC all season winning the regular season title but getting tripped up by New Mexico State in the tourney final. These veterans are 25-9 this year and they were 24-9 last season. The Roadrunners are a great defensive team ranking 3rd nationally in defensive eFG%. The only two teams ranked higher in that category are Gonzaga (in the Final 4) and UCF (in the NIT Final 4). As far as defensive efficiency goes, they rank 15th nationally which is higher than two Final 4 teams (UNC & Oregon). Georgia Tech had the luxury of playing 2 home games in their 3 game journey to NYC. They have been a bad road team all season long with a 4-11 mark in road/neutral games. They struggle offensively and will again tonight vs a top notch defense. We think CSB will prove to be the tougher, more motivated team tonight and in our opinion, they are simply better than the Jackets. Take the points. |
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03-27-17 | Coyotes v. Blues -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* TOP St Louis Blues Puck Line -1.5 goals over Arizona Coyotes @ 8:05 ET: Not only have the Blues defeated the Coyotes 9 straight times, it has been complete domination. 7 wins in the 9-0 run have come by a multiple goal margin and, in fact, the average margin of victory in the 9 wins is 3 goals! With that being said, we like the value here of being able to lay 1.5 goals and get plus money on a Blues team that is off of a loss (rare) and will be ready to bounce back strong. The surge has been big for St Louis since Mike Yeo took over for Ken Hitchcock behind the bench and we've seen the Blues became a different team with Yeo leading the way. The loss that St Louis just had versus Calgary (3-2 in OT) saw all 3 Flames goals score off of deflections off of Blues skates! After that ridiculous result St Louis will take advantage of facing a Coyotes team that is struggling badly again. Arizona has lost 5 of its last 6 games and each of the Coyotes last 4 defeats have come by a multiple goal margin. In recent seasons, the Coyotes have lost a combined 82 of 109 games against teams with a winning record. Facing the hungry and motivated Blues in a spot like this is likely to continue Arizona's misery. St Louis has seen each of its last 5 wins come by a multiple goal margin. Off of a rare loss and considering their series dominance as well as the fact that the Coyotes are tanking, look for the Blues to respond with a huge effort tonight and win this one by a multiple goal margin. |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Carolina +3.5 over Florida, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET We've broken down film on these two teams most recent games and feel the Gamecocks are simply the better team at this moment and that the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored. South Carolina had a fantastic start to the season and were considered one of the better teams in the country before a late game skid caused some doubts. Now they are playing lights out basketball with three really impressive wins in row over Marquette, Duke and Baylor. Florida is no slouch either but they beat East Tennessee State, a Virginia team that was really struggling late in the season and it took OT to beat a sound Wisconsin team. The Badgers had problems with the Gators athletic style of play which is not a concern for South Carolina who can match them physically. In the two meetings this season the Gators beat the Gamecocks by 15 at home as a -7.5-point favorite while the Cocks won at home by 4 as a 2-point chalk. If we break this game down according to season stats and efficiency ratings the Gators look like the better overall team. But when you analyze how each team is CURRENTLY playing, it's clear the Gamecocks are better. Grab whatever points are available for insurance, but don't be surprised with an upset. Elite 8 dogs (29-19 ATS since 2004) are the way to go. |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +1.5 over UCLA, Friday at 9:35 PM ET We’ve said all along we don’t expect UCLA to get to the Final 4 because their defense is simply a tier below many of the other schools. If the Bruins did make it to Arizona, they would do so with the lowest rated defense (79th nationally in defensive efficiency) to make a Final 4 since 2002. Their offense is great. They were able to overwhelm Cincinnati midway through the 2nd half because their offense was so much better than the Bearcats. Remember Cincy led that game at half and for much of the first part of the 2nd half but just couldn’t keep up on offense losing 79-67. Now UCLA faces a team that is close to being on par with them offensively as Kentucky checks in with the 12th most efficient offense in the nation (UCLA is 2nd). However, one of the reasons we like the Cats here is they are MUCH better on the defensive end ranking 7th nationally. The gap between these two defenses is much wider than the offensive gap. On top of that, Kentucky is the better rebounding team. Throw in the fact that this is a revenge game as UCLA beat Kentucky 97-92 at Rupp Arena in early December snapping the Cats 42 game home winning streak and we have UK coming into with big time motivation. UCLA was able to hit 53% of their shots in that game while Kentucky made only 41% but it was still a tight game down the stretch. The Wildcats have improved immensely on defense since that outing holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 70 points or less. While we don’t expect them to shut down UCLA here, we think they’ll play much better on that end of the court and exploit UCLA’s defense here for the win. Kentucky comes into this game as an underdog for just the 2nd time this season and the crowd in Memphis will be a big time edge for Kentucky. Take the Cats. |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +3.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET The Zags did not look like a #1 seed over the first weekend. They struggled with a South Dakota State team that finished tied for 4th in the Summit League and then had Northwestern on the ropes and let the Cats come back and nearly pull the upset. We were on the Zags vs NW as we felt it was a perfect situation for them. Coming off a bad first outing for a top rated seed usually leads to a much better effort in game 2. They had a NW team that was simply happy to be in the Dance and off their first win ever in the NCAA tourney. They jumped out to a 22 point lead which is exactly as we felt the game would play out early. From that point on Gonzaga looked like an average team giving an OK, not great, Northwestern team a shot to win the game late. Now they get a very tough match up in the Sweet 16. WVU is a physical team that dominates the offensive boards (#6 nationally) and pressures offenses with waves of physically talented players. They are #1 in the nation at creating turnovers and while the Zags season long stats indicate they don’t turn the ball over a lot, however they don’t see anything like this defense during the season. In fact, 6 of their 9 opponents in the West Coast Conference rank 279th or lower in defensive turnover percentage. Only one ranks in the top 100. Now they face a team with better athletes than they are used to seeing that creates turnovers at the highest rate in the nation and plays in a much better conference (Big 12) while doing so. WVU runs a pressure defense that’s almost impossible to duplicate in practice. The Zags actually had more turnovers than assists in each of their first two NCAA games and those teams are nowhere near as good as West Virginia. They also don’t see great offensive rebounding teams with only 1 WCC team (St Marys) ranked in the top 100 in that category. Because of they often dominate the offensive glass and create turnovers, the Mountaineers often have more opportunities to score on the offensive end. Just over the last 10 games they have attempted 77 more shots than their opponents and that’s mainly vs very good Big 12 opponents. If they continue to shoot well (48% in first two NCAA games) they’ll be very tough to beat. As we stated, the Zags struggle with teams that are FAR inferior to WVU and if they play like that again Thursday, they have no chance to win. We like the dog here. |
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03-22-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Coastal Carolina -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -3.5 over Illinois Chicago, Wednesday at 7:00PM ET We’re definitely getting some line value here with CC. The Chanticleers were just favored by 5.5 at home vs Loyola Maryland on Monday and now they are laying just 3.5 to UIC, two teams that are rated almost the same (Loyola 226th nationally & UIC 232nd). The situation here also heavily favors Coastal as they were at home on Monday and at home again tonight. UIC, on the other hand, has to travel for the first time in the CBI tourney. The Flames also played at home on Monday and now having to travel and play 2 days later gives them very little time to prepare for CC. On top of that, this post-season road situation is something nobody on UIC’s roster has ever been involved with. This is the youngest team in the nation with 4 freshmen in the starting line up & none of the other Flames have ever played in the post-season before this year. Coastal, on the other hand, is a veteran team (4 upperclassmen in the starting line-up) that has turned it on down the stretch winning 9 of their last 11 home games with their two losses each coming by 2 points. CC has better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively. They also finished 10-8 in the tougher Sun Belt compared to UIC’s 7-11 record in the lower rated Horizon. This one sets up nicely and we’ll take Coastal Carolina to win and cover. |
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03-21-17 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 While both are 2-0 in the NIT, the Ole Miss path has proven much more impressive. The Rebs won both games on the road @ Monmouth, who was easily the best team in the Metro Atlantic this year, and then a win @ Syracuse, who many felt should have been in the Big Dance. Now they are thrilled to finally get a home game and with a win they move to the NIT Final 4. If Mississippi was able to beat two very solid opponents on the road, we’re confident they can get a win at home in this one. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has played both of their games at home getting wins over a disinterested Indiana team that has quit on the season and Belmont. Now Tech must travel for the first time in this tourney and they were terrible on the road all season long. The Jackets were 2-10 in road games this year losing by an average of 12 PPG. This team leans heavily on their defense and their numbers on that end of the court dropped significantly away from home. At home Tech allowed just 61 PPG and opponents shot under 40%. On the road they gave up 76 PPG and teams shot 46% from the field. A drastic difference to say the least. If they can’t rely on their defense, this team is in trouble because they are not good offensively ranking nearly the bottom of college hoops in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and FT%. Ole Miss was a potent offense at home averaging 80 PPG here. We don’t think Tech can keep up and we’ll lay the number with Mississippi. |
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03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State -4.5 | Top | 63-62 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -4.5 over UCF, Monday at 7:00 PM ET – ISU was easily the 2nd best team in the MVC all season long and not far behind Wichita State. The Redbirds beat the Shockers by 14 on this court this season. Speaking of this court, ISU is 16-0 this season at home and they have won 22 straight games at Redbird Arena. All but 3 of those 22 wins have come by at least 5 points (tonight’s number is -4.5). They whipped the top team in the Big West , Cal Irvine, here last week by 14 points. UCF won their opener at home vs Colorado by 5 points in what was a great draw for the Knights. Colorado was a veteran team that wasn’t thrilled to be in the NIT (their goal from day one was NCAA) and it was a long travel game for them – first time they’ve left the west coast this season. We were on UCF in that game and picked up a win. Now the Knights travel and they were less than impressive on the road this year. They did win 4 AAC road games but those came against the bottom 4 teams in the league and 3 of the 4 wins were by 3 points or less. They are not a great shooting team, especially on the road hitting only 40% of their shots, and they are facing a very good defense. ISU is 18th nationally in defensive efficiency and at home they allow opponents to hit just 37%. UCF is very solid defensively as well, but with ISU at home we think they’ll perform much better than UCF offensively. Lay the small number. |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati +4 v. UCLA | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +4 over UCLA, Sunday at 9:40 PM ET We like looking at NCAA underdogs that have a big advantage defensively and we definitely have that here. The Bearcats are the 11th most efficient defense in the nation and 8th best when it comes to eFG% defense. UCLA ranks 83rd and 82nd in those 2 categories. Is UCLA better offensively? Sure they are but Cincy is no slouch this year coming in at 33rd nationally in offensive efficiency. We like the fact the Bearcats are simply the tougher team here as well. They’ll most likely win the battle of the boards and make this a grinder, half court type game. We’re not sure this young UCLA team will thrive in a slower paced game and you can bet that’s what Cincy will do here. There really isn’t a team in the Pac 12 that is a tough, slow paced team like the Bearcats so UCLA won’t be acclimated to playing against this style This tough, experienced Cincinnati team (4 Juniors & Seniors in the starting line up) has lots of tourney game time under their belts. They easily handled a solid Kansas State team in round one and we think they give UCLA fits here. The line is also begging you to take UCLA in this game as Vegas set the number very low at -4 and it has dropped to -3.5 since. With 70% of the bets coming in on the Bruins and they line dropping, that tells us most of the casual basketball bettors in Vegas this time of year are on UCLA while the people that bet heavier money and are doing this day in and day out are on the Bearcats. Rumors of Alford heading to Indiana can’t help here either. We think UCLA gets bounced here. |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon -5 over Rhode Island, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET URI is a solid team that plays very well on defense, however they don’t have enough offense to hang here. The Rams picked up a great draw in their first game playing a Creighton team that in their current state, wasn’t even good enough to be in the tourney. In fact, since the Blue Jays lost point guard Watson mid-season, they were just 7-9. If it weren’t for their early season run with Watson in the line up, the Jays would not have been in the tourney. Much is made of URI’s defense which is very good, however let’s not discount the Ducks defense. They actually have better efficiency numbers than URI (Oregon 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency & URI 26th). While the defenses will be comparable here, the Ducks offense is far superior. Oregon is the 17th most efficient offense in the nation and their eFG% is 55.8% which is good for 15th. Rhode Island’s eFG% ranks 175th and they are a bad 3-point shooting team (239th). They also make just 66% of their free throws. Speaking of FT’s, the Rams also send teams to the foul line A LOT (19th most in the nation) while the Ducks foul very infrequently sending teams to the line 16th least in the country. The Rams have played just 7 teams this year that made the tourney and were just 3-4 in those games. They are also very new to this gig having not been in the Dance since 1999. Oregon, on the other hand, is a veteran team that was one win away from the Final 4 last year. They are experienced in this spot and on a mission. Lay the small number. |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -11 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -11 over Northwestern, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET The Zags played one of their worst games of the season on Thursday and still beat South Dakota State by 20 points. They shot just 39% (their season average is 51%), 26% from 3 (season average is 38%) and they made just 8 of 18 from the FT line. You can bet after this team has been questioned as a #1 seed, they will play MUCH better on Saturday. Northwestern, on the other hand, has probably already accomplished all they could have hoped for. After making the Dance for the first time ever, they were a bit fortunate on Thursday when Vandy held a 1-point lead late and intentionally fouled NW thinking they were down 1. The Cats now have an NCAA appearance and an NCAA win on a down to the wire game so this one could be tough. We feel this game is very similar to their Big Ten tourney game vs Wisconsin. They came into that game having beaten Maryland to pretty much lock in their first NCAA tourney invite only to turn around and get crushed by the Badgers the following day. NW scored just 48 points in that game. This team can struggle offensively as they are just the 203rd best shooting team in the nation and they’ve been held under 70 points in 12 of their last 14 games. That won’t change here facing Gonzaga who rates as the #1 defensive efficiency team in the nation. As bad as they were offensively on Thursday, the Zags still held South Dakota State, a team that was regularly scoring 80+ points per game, to just 48. They have held 15 of their last 21 opponents to 61 points or less. We wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them hold Northwestern under 60 here. Add that to a motivated offense that will play much better on Saturday and the makings of a blowout are in order. Lastly, this game also falls into a very strong NCAA round 2 system of ours that has covered 13 of the last 16 times it’s applied (81%) and we side with Gonzaga as a Top Game here. |
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03-17-17 | Troy State +20 v. Duke | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Troy +20 over Duke, Friday at 7:20 PM T We look for Duke to play a “ho-hum” type game in the opening round vs Troy. The Devils expended a ton of energy last weekend winning the ACC tourney beating Clemson, Louisville, UNC, and Notre Dame in 4 days. They are bound to have an emotional letdown after that one especially against a no name opponent like Troy. The Trojans are a dangerous team that is very athletic. Duke will not “out athlete” Troy in this one. They are a solid offensive team (51% eFG%) with experienced guards that can shoot the 3. The Trojans have 3 players in their starting lineup that hit at least 38% from deep and 4 of their 5 starters are upperclassmen. Defensively they aren’t great but not terrible either. As we stated they will match up athletically with Duke on the defensive end. They played USC to the wire on the road this year and the one NCAA caliber team in the Sun Belt besides Troy was UT Arlington and they split with them this year. Duke is a bit banged up with Jefferson & Allen not at 100%. You can bet Krzyzewski wants to get through this game and move on. They don’t need a blowout here and we’re not sure they could pull that off even if they wanted to. Sun Belt entries have taken much higher seeds to the wire each of the last two NCAA tourneys and we think it may happen again. |
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03-17-17 | UC-Davis v. Kansas -22.5 | Top | 62-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas -22.5 over UC Davis, Friday at 6:50 PM ET UC Davis ranks as THE WORST team in the field coming in at #216 in the Ken Pom rankings. They played ONE, yes ONE, top 100 team all season long and that was a 25 point loss to California who didn’t even make the tourney. Even with the weak schedule (300th SOS), the Aggies were a terrible offensive team this season. For the season UCD ranks 291st in offensive efficiency, 240th in eFG%, and shoot just 66% from the FT line. They have gone 7 consecutive games without reaching 70 points on offense and those were all vs opponents ranked 137th or lower. On top of that, this is a terrible spot for them after playing a tough down to the wire game on Wednesday night in Dayton they now play #1 seed Kansas in Tulsa just 2 days later. KU will be motivated here. They were taken out in the first game of the Big 12 tourney by TCU so they come in wanting to right that wrong. It was really a blessing in disguise as that loss was last Thursday so the Jayhawks have now had more than a week off to rest up, prepare and get ready for the Dance. Soon to be top 10 draft pick and one of the best players in the nation, Josh Jackson, was suspended for KU’s loss to TCU but returns here. Unlike UC Davis, Kansas has played only 3 teams all season long ranked below 200. All three of those opponents were ranked in a similar range to Davis (219th, 224th, and 249th) and KU destroyed all 3 teams 31, 30, and 18 points. KU can name the score here and with them being extra motivated coming in off a loss, we think they don’t let up. |
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03-17-17 | New Mexico State +12.5 v. Baylor | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +12.5 over Baylor, Friday at 12:40 PM ET This total is set fairly at just 134 so a low scoring game is expected. Baylor leans heavily on their defense and they can struggle at times offensively. When they win, they don’t win big very often. In fact, of their last 12 wins, 11 have come by less than 12 points. One thing the Bears rely on is getting extra offensive opportunities by controlling the boards. That shouldn’t happen here as NMSU is a very solid rebounding team (18th nationally in offensive rebounding). The Aggies are a veteran team that is used to being in this environment. They have now been in the Big Dance 5 of the last 6 seasons. They have a solid backcourt (Taylor, Baker & Huggins) that have been logged a lot of minutes and won a lot of games over the last 2 to 3 seasons. This isn’t a flash in the pan type program at New Mexico State. This is the 6th straight year they’ve won at least 23 games. Their conference, the WAC, looks better than most may have anticipated based on early post-season results. Cal State Bakersfield, the team NMSU beat in the WAC final by 10, just went to Cal and won in the NIT. UMKC beat UW Green Bay in the NIT and Utah Valley won @ Georgia Southern in the CBI. Baylor is not a good 3-point shooting team and the NMSU defense ranks 8th nationally at defending the arc so we don’t expect much from deep from the Bears here. They’ll have to grind this one out inside the arc making it tough to pull away against a solid opponent. We think the Aggies match up very well here and we’ll take the points. |
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03-16-17 | Sabres v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 140 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10* Los Angeles Kings Puck Line -1.5 goals: The Sabres have lost 9 of their last 11 games but they haven't faced the Kings since mid-December and that was a big 6-3 win for Buffalo. You know the Kings will be looking for payback here and what has intensified the situation is the fact that Los Angeles is off of back to back losses and playing their final home game for the next 7 days. After this game the Kings will be heading to Western Canada for a two-game road trip and they won't be on home ice again until next Thursday. This means there is no doubt that LA will have supreme focus for this game and the home team has won the last two games between these clubs by a combined score of 8 to 3. The Kings average margin of victory in their last 13 games is 2.2 goals. The Sabres average margin of defeat in their last 11 losses is 2 goals. With Buffalo in the middle of a tough road trip out west and Los Angeles looking to respond after an embarrassing home loss versus Arizona, this one should easily be decided by a multiple goal margin. LA finds itself in a fierce fight for the final playoff spot out west while the Sabres run of 9 losses in their last 11 games has dashed any glimmering hopes about making the playoffs for this season. Off of back to back losses and playing this game with revenge, look for the Kings to respond with a huge effort tonight and win this one by a multiple goal margin. |
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03-16-17 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON St Mary's -4 over VCU, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET Really like the situation for St Mary’s here. They’ve been off since March 7th after losing to Gonzaga in the WCC final. VCU, on the other hand, just finished 3 games in 3 days on Sunday losing to URI in the A10 Final and now must play out west (game is in Salt Lake City) just a few days later. The Gaels are under rated in our opinion. They are one of the most balanced teams in the nation ranking in the top 26 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They shoot the ball as well as any team in the nation ranking 14th nationally in 3 point FG% and 8th nationally in FG% inside the arc. They have just 4 losses on the season and 3 of them came at the hands of #1 seed Gonzaga. VCU is a team that likes to up tempo if possible so look for STM to frustrate them as they play with the 2nd slowest tempo in the nation. VCU is just an OK shooting team that really struggles from beyond the arc (241st nationally in 3 point %). They won’t get many 2nd chances here as the Gaels are the #1 defensive rebounding team in the nation. We’ll side with the MUCH better shooting team (and better numbers defensively as well for that matter) in a very good scheduling situation. St Marys rolls here. |
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03-14-17 | Indiana v. Georgia Tech +3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Georgia Tech +3 over Indiana, Tuesday at 9:00 PM on ESPN Can’t imagine IU is all that excited about being here. They had high hopes to start the season and actually topped the likes of UNC and Kansas in the first month of the season. Their high hopes came crashing down with a 7-11 Big Ten record and now a team that had big time NCAA aspirations, not just getting there but making a run, is stuck in the NIT. The Hoosiers were offered to host this game but declined due to renovations going on at Assembly Hall. You can bet Georgia Tech is thrilled to host a blue blood program like Indiana. The Jackets are no slouch as they played in the toughest conference in America and finished 7-2 at home in ACC beating the likes of North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida State, and Syracuse. They face an IU team that is just 2-8 this year on the road with those wins coming by 4 @ Ohio State and by 3 @ Penn State. The Hoosiers offense can be potent but they are facing the 7th most efficient defense in the nation here. By comparison, the most comparable team in the Big Ten when it comes to defensive efficiency would be Wisconsin who ranks 8th nationally. The Badgers held Indiana to 60, 60, and 68 points in their 3 meetings. We think Tech does the same tonight and they pick up a home win. Not sure Indiana should even be favored in this one. |
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03-14-17 | Ole Miss v. Monmouth -3 | Top | 91-83 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Monmouth -3 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Monmouth was the best team in the MEAC all season long but lost in the conference tourney to drop to the NIT. The Hawks finished the conference with a record of 18-2 which was a full 4 games ahead of 2nd place St Peters. They finished 27-6 and their only non-conference losses came at North Carolina, at Syracuse, and at South Carolina (in OT). They beat two top 100 teams in the non-conference slate topping Memphis on the road and beating NCAA bound Princeton. That win over Princeton on December 20th was actually the last time Princeton lost as the Tigers have won 19 straight since. Monmouth is a team that is very solid on both sides of the ball (89th in offensive efficiency and 85th in defensive efficiency), they don’t turn the ball over, they shoot it very well from 3, and they make FT’s. Ole Miss has to be a bit disappointed they have to travel to a game like this to open the NIT. They were hoping for a home game. Getting to Monmouth (in New Jersey) could pose all kinds of problems for the Rebs as well with the huge winter storm hitting the east coast. The Rebels are not a great shooting team and on the road they really bottomed out hitting just 39% of their shots. This is a HUGE home game for Monmouth as they rarely host a big conference opponent. The last “big name” opponent the Hawks were able to host was back in 2015 when they faced off against in-state big boy Rutgers and lost by 1 point. Monmouth has won 24 of their last 27 home games and they get the win and cover here against what could be a disinterested Ole Miss team. |
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03-14-17 | Pistons v. Cavs -7 | Top | 96-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #532 @Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - At first glance it looks like the Pistons plus the points would be the bet here but closer inspection tells us differently. The Cavs (and LeBron) are clearly a 'play on' team given the circumstances and you have to pick and choose your spots carefully considering they're over-valued by the oddsmakers on most occasions. Tonight the Cavs are on NBA TV which normally brings out the best of ego driven LBJ. Plus, these two teams just met in Detroit with the Pistons winning 106-101 as a +4.5-point underdog. Clearly, based on the line on that game the Cavs should be a much bigger favorite here. Cleveland is returning home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 and prior to that they lost at home to the Heat. All those factors will have the Cavs on top of their game tonight against a poor traveling Pistons team (11-21 SU on the road.) Cleveland is 26-7 SU at home and have the 4th best point differential of +8.9PPG at home in the NBA. The last time these two teams met here the Cavs won by 23. Expect another big win tonight given the circumstances. |
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03-11-17 | Colorado State v. Nevada -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nevada -4.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 6 PM ET This is a tough situation for CSU. One of the thinnest teams in the nation playing only 7 players for the most part, the Rams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days. On top of that, they got the late game last night vs San Diego State. Their game didn’t start until 10 PM Pacific time and didn’t get over until after midnight. That means they probably didn’t get back to their hotel and settled down after a big win until 2 AM or later. Now they play today at 3 PM Pacific time making this a very rough spot for them. Nevada won the early game vs Fresno and had time to wind down and settle in much earlier. The Wolfpack have been the best team in the conference pretty much all year. They rank #1 in the MWC in offensive efficiency, #2 in defensive efficiency, #2 in offensive turnover %, #1 in defensive rebounding, #1 defending the 3, and #1 in steals. These two met a week ago in a game that decided the regular season title and Nevada won by 13. Now with CSU in a much more precarious spot today, we look for another easy win by Nevada. |
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03-10-17 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas State -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Texas State (-4.5) over UL Monroe, 3PM ET - We love this spot for several reasons including: Texas State is rested while UL Monroe is coming off an OT win over Arkansas State on Wednesday as a sizeable underdog. In fact, ULM was +7 in that game and Texas State in our opinion is slightly better than Arkansas State, and they're laying just -4.5-points in this game. Plus, Texas State was just a -2.5-point favorite at ULM in the final regular season game which means they should be -7 or more here. Texas State beat ULM on March 4th in a meaningless game for them and played their entire roster extended minutes. When we look at TXST's most recent road contests we see they came against 4 of the best teams in the Sun Belt so their most recent road struggles aren't the best barometer considering they are playing the last place team in the conference today. When we look at both teams road records (this game is on a neutral court so essentially a road venue for both) we find ULM had an average negative differential of nearly 12PPG. Texas State was much better away from home with a negative differential of -5PPG. UL Monroe is just 3-16 SU their last 19 games overall and are off a huge upset. Looks like a return to Earth today against a solid Texas State team that has covered 5 straight as a chalk. Lay the points! |
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03-09-17 | Illinois +5 v. Michigan | Top | 55-75 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois +5 over Michigan, Thursday at 12 PM ET Bad situation yesterday for the Wolverines. Their plane ran off the runway and takeoff yesterday afternoon and the team was not able to make it to DC until this morning. After that scare and showing up here a few hours before game time, we have to side with Illinois getting points in this one. The Illini played their best basketball at the end of the year winning 5 of 6 to put @ Rutgers now making this a must win. Illini head coach John Groce stated that his team played the best basketball since he’s been here over their final 6 or 7 games. The defense was key as they held 7 of their final 9 opponents under 70 points. That gives them an edge on that end of the court facing a Michigan team that ranks 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% defense. Michigan relies heavily on the 3-pointer with 38% of their points in conference play coming from deep (most in the Big Ten). We don’t like backing teams that rely that heavily on the outside shot at a neutral venue they’ve never played at. These two met twice this year with the home team winning each – Illinois with a 17 point win at home and Michigan with a 9 point win at home. We think this one will be nip and tuck the entire way so we take the points with Illinois here. |
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03-05-17 | Minnesota +6.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET Wisky continues to get the respect of oddsmakers despite losing 5 of their last 6. This team is struggling right now. They led Iowa by 9 on Thursday with just over 3:00 remaining in the game and what would normally be an absolute win for Wisky in that spot turned into a 2 point loss. They are a bad FT shooting team (just 5 of 14 vs Iowa) and something is off with this team right now. Can they right the ship on Senior night? Possibly but even if they do get a win, we expect it to be a close game. The Gophs are the hottest team in the Big Ten right now winning 8 straight games including 4 straight on the road. Minny has lost 6 straight to Wisconsin and they have revenge here after losing at home in OT in January 78-76. The Badgers were playing very well at that time and still needed OT to win the game. That isn’t the case anymore. The Gophs have covered 7 of their last 8 while the Badgers have lost 7 of 8 to the number. Can Wisconsin keep up here? Minnesota’s offense is averaging 83 PPG over their last 5 while UW is putting up just 66 PPG. Wisconsin may win this, although we’re not so sure, but even if they do we expect it to go to the wire. Take the points. |
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03-05-17 | Celtics -6 v. Suns | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #827 Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Phoenix Suns, 5PM ET - We're going to lay the points with Boston on the road over Phoenix. The Suns have won two straight home games but in both cases (OKC and Charlotte) they caught their opponents in bad scheduling situation. Today they get a Boston team that is the second best team in the East and playing well and has the 5th best road differential in the NBA at +1.9PPG (only 5 teams have a positive road DIFF on the road). On the flip side the Suns are off a home win and have been horrible in this situation with a 4-16 SU record off a win, 1-9 SU at home. Phoenix also has the 4th worst home differential in the NBA at minus -2.3PPG. Boston has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road off a win and should get a double digit win here. |
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03-05-17 | Purdue v. Northwestern +3.5 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +3.5 over Purdue, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET The Boilers have absolutely nothing to play for here. They clinched the outright Big Ten title on Thursday night when Wisconsin lost at home to Iowa. Most of the PU players were gathered together watching Iowa hit a 3 pointer with 9 seconds left to beat the Badgers by 2. Word is the room erupted as the Boilermakers accomplished their goal of winning the Big Ten. Now traveling to NW, a team they beat by 20+ earlier this year, might be a tough spot for this Purdue team to bring their best. Not to mention PU is a MUCH better team at home than they are on the road. They are just 5-4 this year in true road games with 4 of those wins coming by margins of 1, 1, 4 and 5 points. This is Northwestern’s final home game and while their win earlier this week vs Michigan may have pushed them into the Big Dance for the first time ever, it’s not a 100% lock quite yet. A win here over Purdue would guarantee an NCAA tourney bid. The Cats will also have some extra motivation here after playing one of their worst games of the year @ Purdue losing 80-59. NW shot just 35% in that game and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts. The Boilers made 52% from beyond the arc in that win. NW also played that game without one of their top players Lindsay who has since returned. We like NW to win this game outright at home on Sunday. |
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03-04-17 | Notre Dame +8 v. Louisville | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +8 over Louisville, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on CBS Louisville went through a stretch mid-season where they were throttling teams. That red hot stretch ended in early February and now this team simply isn’t playing all that well. They are 4-3 their last 7 games and 3 of their 4 wins have come by 5 points or fewer. This Cardinal team needs to create turnovers for their offense to flow as they are simply not a great shooting team ranking 138th in eFG%. The Irish are not a great match up for this team. That’s because they don’t turn the ball over. ND gives the ball away just 14% of the time which is the 3rd best mark in the nation. They are always a dangerous underdog because they shoot the ball so well (36th nationally in eFG%) and they make their FT’s (81% for #1 in the nation). Notre Dame hit a slow streak in late January but have since ripped off 6 consecutive wins. They beat Louisville 77-70 earlier this year and had only 12 turnovers in the game. Again, that’s the recipe for beating U of L and the Irish do it as well as anyone. The Irish have lost only 2 games this year by more than 8 points (where this spread currently stands) and even if they lose here, we expect a tight game throughout. They’ve also proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-2 SU record in true road games. With Louisville struggling a bit, we take ND to cover this spread and feel they have a solid shot at the upset. |
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03-01-17 | Michigan State v. Illinois -2 | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Michigan State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET Tough spot here for a very young MSU team. They are off a huge home win on Sunday vs a struggling Wisconsin team and now take the road a few days later. While Sparty has been tough at home, they are just 2-6 on the road this season. MSU has a road scoring margin of -8 PPG and they are allowing opponents to shoot 47%. That happens with a young team. The defense has problems on the road. This will be the first road game MSU has had to play without starting senior guard Eron Harris who was lost for the season in a loss @ Purdue on February 18th.They are facing an Illini team that is absolutely peaking to close out the regular season. Illinois has won 4 of their last 5 games and their defense has been outstanding down the stretch. And speaking of defense, U of I has been lock down on that end of the court as of late. Over the last 5 games the Illini defense has allowed opponents just 0.93 points per possession. Illinois is a veteran team playing their final home game of the season. They still have hopes of an NCAA berth but must win this one and @ last place Rutgers this weekend to get to 9-9 in the Big Ten and 19-12 overall heading into the conference tourney. We’ll take Illinois here. |
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02-26-17 | Jazz v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 102-92 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Washington Wizards (-1.5) over Utah Jazz, 5PM ET – Washington is in a great spot here as they are off an upset loss to Philly and should bounce back in a big way at home (10-2 SU this year off a loss and playing at home). Utah on the other hand is off a road win. Washington has been near unbeatable at home with wins in 19 of their last 20 and the lone L came against the East leading Cavaliers. The Wiz have an average home point differential of +6PPG which is one of the better numbers in the league. Utah has been solid on the road all season long with a +2PPG differential but they are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 away from home. Washington has covered 4 of their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record and have covered 7 of their last 9 off a loss. Play Washington today! |
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02-24-17 | Nets +10 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ASA #857 Brooklyn Nets (+10) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - The Nuggets are off a game last night in Sacramento which resulted in a 16-point road loss. They shot 44% for game which isn’t horrible but they didn’t play much defense, allowing the Kings to hit 52% from the field, 50% from the beyond the arc. Denver is just 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS) when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 9PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 12 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-11 SU & ATS in those games. Brooklyn is playing better even though it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins but they have covered 3 of their last five games and have a negative differential of -6PPG which is nearly 3-points better than their season differential. Of their last 9 losses, none have come by more than 9-points or tonight’s spread. We’re not sure how Denver is a favorite of this size when their defense is allowing over 51% shooting their last five games and even the All-Star break didn’t fix that. Brooklyn clearly isn’t a great defensive team but the Nuggets are last in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.134 points per possession. In the lone meeting this season the Nets did win at home by 5-points which is 6th straight time they’ve beaten Denver. Grab the points with Brooklyn. |
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02-22-17 | Minnesota v. Maryland -4 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
PLAY ON: MARYLAND (-4) over Minnesota - We love the spot to play on the Maryland Terrapins over the visiting Minnesota Gophers. While Minnesota is coming off a hard fought, emotional home win over Michigan and in for a letdown, the Terps are off a disappointing loss on the road in Wisconsin. We expect a bounce back here for Maryland who is a solid 12-3 SU at home with a point differential of +8PPG. Minnesota is 4-4 SU on the road this year but they’ve struggled shooting it away from home by hitting just 40% from the field. In terms of defensive efficiency rating these two teams are relatively even allowing 1.005 points per possession (Maryland) and 1.004 PPP (Minnesota) but in terms of offense the Terps are MUCH better. Maryland has the 3rd most efficient offense in the Big Ten at 1.082PPP while the Gophers are 11th in the conference at 1.023PPP. MD has the 4th best eFG% shooting statistics in the B10 at 53.7% while the Gophers are 12th at 46.9%. Maryland has covered 12 of their last 16 Conference games while the Gophs are 7-9 ATS their last 16 conference roadies. We expect Maryland to get off to a good start at home and Minnesota just doesn’t have an offense capable of playing catchup. Lay the points! |
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02-19-17 | Michigan v. Minnesota | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA 10STAR PLAY ON: #862 @MINNESOTA (-1) over Michigan, 7PM ET We like the situation to play on the Minnesota Gophers minus the short number at home over the Michigan Wolverines. Minnesota has the 3rd highest RPI ratings among Big Ten teams and has played a stronger schedule to date than Michigan. The Gophs also have the interior defenders (3rd in nation in blocked shots) to hold the Wolves front court at bay. Michigan is due for a letdown after their 3 straight emotional wins over instate rival Michigan State, at Indiana and a home win over Wisconsin. Minnesota is off 3 straight wins too but they were favored in all three and expected to win. The defensive advantages for the Gophers is dramatic as they have one of the best eFG% defenses in the Big Ten while the Wolverines have the second worst. When playing on the road the Wolverines shoot just 42% but allow foes to hit nearly 53%. Minnesota on the other hand shoots near 45% at home but hold foes to just 39% on their home court. Michigan has a negative road differential of -7PPG on the road this season while the Gophers have a home differential of nearly +11PPG. We like the number in this game as the Gophers were just a -4.5 point favorite at home over Maryland (2nd in Big 10) and is laying less in this situation. Minnesota is 14-3 SU at home this season while the Wolves are just 1-6 SU away. We will lay the short number with the Gophers here. |
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02-19-17 | Connecticut v. Temple -2 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10STAR PLAY ON: #868 @TEMPLE (-2) over Connecticut, 4PM ET - We are playing on Temple at home over UConn on Sunday afternoon. When these two teams last met in mid-January the Huskies were a -1.5 point favorite and won handily after Temple shot horrendously from the field (35.9%) compared to UConn hitting over 52% from the field. Look at the tremendous line value we are getting here as Temple should be at least 6 or 7 in this contest. We also like the scheduling dynamics here with UConn coming off a win over Memphis, in which they were down 17, and had to expend a ton of energy in that comeback win. Temple has been up and down but have some impressive wins on their resume over Florida State, West Virginia and two wins over 18-9 Memphis. The Owls have beaten the Huskies two straight years on this floor in regular season play. Temple gets it done offensively by making 3-pointers (25th in 3-point attempts per game) and they shot it below their season average (36%) in the first meeting (29%) but that should change back at home. In fact, Owls Obi Enechionyia was 1-for-10 on threes, a key to the game. Enechionyia is 6 feet 10, and UConn's big men are not used to getting out and guarding the perimeter. The Huskies are just 2-8 SU against top 100 RPI teams this season and Temple is 94th. Lastly, Temple's strength of schedule is much better than UConn's and we feel they get a comfortable home win today! |
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02-17-17 | VCU v. Richmond +2.5 | Top | 84-73 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Richmond +2.5 over VCU, Friday at 9:00 PM ET This is a huge rivalry game with both schools located in Richmond and just 6 miles apart. VCU shot 52% from the field in the first meeting this year and won a competitive game 81-74. The Rams were also +12 in FT’s made in that game so for Richmond to stay tight throughout with VCU shooting very well and having a big edge at the line was impressive. Now the Spiders get their chance at redemption, this time at home. VCU has had some big home wins in A10 play but the road has been a different story. The Rams are 2-2 their last 4 conference road games but they could easily be 0-4 in those games. In their two road wins during that stretch @ GW and @ St Bonnies, they had some very lucky end of game situations take place. Versus GW the Rams trailed by 1 with 0.4 seconds remaining and drew a charging foul on an inbounds play then made both FT’s to win. Versus St Bonnies they led by 2 when the Bonnies made a 3-pointer to “win” the game with 0.4 seconds remaining. Problem was, the fans stormed the court and were assessed the technical because the game wasn’t officially over. VCU sent the game to OT where they eventually won. This team is ready to get nipped on the road and we think that happens here. Richmond is the #1 shooting team in the league (54.6 eFG%) and they don’t turn the ball over very often which is key vs VCU. The host has covered 70% of the last 21 meetings in this cross town rivalry (14-6-1 ATS) and we like the Spiders to pull the “upset” here. |
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02-16-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut -4.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UConn -4.5 over Memphis, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET The Huskies are playing easily their best basketball of the season. After starting the AAC with just a 2-4 record their first 6 conference games, UConn has since won 6 of their last 7. That puts them at 7-5 in league play which is a half game behind tonight’s opponent, Memphis, for 4th place in the conference. These two met in January in Memphis the Tigers came away with a 70-61 win. UConn made a paltry 37% of their shots and were terrible from deep hitting just 4 of their 20 three points attempts. Since that game the Huskies have shot the ball light year’s better as they now lead the AAC in 3-point shooting percentage (conference games only) making over 41%. They also hit 76% of their FT’s which is 2nd in the conference as well. Memphis ranks near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and shooting percentage and they’ve made it to 70 points only once in their last six games. After shooting much better than normal in their first game vs UConn (47%) we expect the Tigers to struggle offensively here vs one of the top defenses in the nation (UConn ranks 16th nationally in defensive eFG%). Connecticut should destroy Memphis on the boards here as they did in the first game (+20 margin) and if that happens, they will cruise here. Since losing their home opener in AAC play back on Dec 28th, the Huskies have won 5 straight at home with 4 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. We’ll side with the red hot Huskies at home laying a marginal number. |
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02-15-17 | Knicks v. Thunder -7 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER (-7) over NY Knicks, 9:30PM ET - Tonight we love the opportunity to play against a bad team (NY Knicks) off a big upset win, playing on the road, against a superior team (OKC) which is off a loss. New York beat the San Antonio Spurs at home on Sunday which makes them just 7-20 SU their last 27 games and puts them in a bet against situation, as they are 1-6 ATS their last seven when off a win. New York is just 9-18 SU on the road this season and they have an average point differential of minus -5.1PPG which ranks in the bottom 12 teams in the league. On the flip side the Thunder are off a blowout loss (7-3-1 ATS at home off a loss) in Washington where the team missed 24 consecutive shots, a NBA record. Russell Westbrook struggled with just 17 points but a lot of the Thunders poor play was the fact they were coming off a huge game versus Golden State. The Thunder are 19-8 SU at home this year, 13-4 their last seventeen. OKC has also covered 11 of fourteen at home against sub .500 teams which tells us they win by larger margins. Easy call with OKC at home tonight over the NY Knicks. |
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02-14-17 | Colorado State +1 v. Wyoming | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +1 over Wyoming, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET CSU is playing the best basketball in the Mountain West right now. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback coming by 3 points at the hands of 1st place Boise State. They have shown they can get it done on the road winning 4 of their 6 away games in MWC play and outscoring their opponents on the road. The Rams have also covered 8 of their last 9 road games. This is a team that is very tough to contain offensively. They rank #1 in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency, 3-point shooting percentage, and offensive rebounding. On top of that, they make 75% of their FT’s. Wyoming can’t match offensively or on the boards here as they rank near the bottom of the conference in both. They face a Ram defense that allows opponents to shoot only 38% on the road so the struggles should continue here. The Cowboys have only played 2 of the top 5 teams in the MWC at home this year and they’ve lost to both (Boise & Nevada). The Cowboys have played just 4 overall this year against the top 5 in this conference (CSU, San Diego St, Nevada, New Mexico, and Boise) and they are 0-4 in those games. They are just 2-2 at home since mid-January with their only wins coming by 1 point over UNLV and by 2 points in 4 overtimes vs Fresno. This is a double revenger for Colorado State as they lost both to Wyoming last year – this is first meeting this year. We’ll gladly take the better team getting points here. |
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02-13-17 | Thunder v. Wizards -5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET - We're going to fade OKC here and play on a hot Washington team at home. The Thunder are very good at home but not nearly as good when on the road with a 12-16 SU record. In fact, the Thunder have a -5.5 average point differential away from home with is in the bottom third of the NBA. Washington on the other hand is in the top 10 in home point differential at +5.5PPGand they stand 23-7 SU on their home court. The Wiz are 18-1 SU their last 19 at home and the lone loss was in OT to the Cavaliers and only 2 of those home wins were by less than 5-points. Shooting will play a major role tonight as OKC shoots just 43.6% on the road this season compared to Washington who hits nearly 49% at home. The Thunder are coming off a couple huge emotional games after beating Cleveland at home then losing to the Warriors on Saturday so they should be a little flat on the road in Washington. OKC is just 5-7 ATS on the road this year off a loss so that's not a concern for us here. Wizard come into tonight on 2 days rest and have covered 4 of their last five in that scheduling situation, plus they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 at home. Lay it! |
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02-12-17 | Pelicans v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS (-3.5) over New Orleans Pelicans - We like the Sacramento Kings at home over the visiting New Orleans Pelicans and expect a double digit win by the host. New Orleans is 7-18 SU on the road this season with a negative point differential of -5.3PPG which is in the bottom half of the league. So much of what the Pelicans do is reliant on center Anthony Davis who is coming off a 42 point, 13 rebound and 7 assist game against Minnesota the other night but he’ll have his hands full tonight with fellow Kentuckian DeMarcus Cousins. Prior to their road win the other night in Minnesota the Pelicans had lost 5 straight away from home and three of those losses were by 7+ points. New Orleans is also just 7-13 SU when coming off a win this season and have failed to cover 5 straight games in that role. Sacramento is 11-15 SU at home which isn’t great but they’ve won 3 of their last four at home and all 3 wins came against quality teams (Atlanta, Boston and Golden State). Cousins is good when he’s motivated as he will be today facing Davis. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Pelicans on this floor by 8 as a 6-point chalk. Lay it again! |
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02-12-17 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +10.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET Too many points here. Wisconsin continues to win but not easily and not by wide margins. Their defense has been great but their offense has left a lot to be desired. 5 of their last 7 wins were down to the wire games that weren’t decided until very late. Over their last 4 games the Badgers are averaging just 63 PPG and shooting only 37% from the field. A few of Wisconsin’s key players are banged up right now including point guard Koenig who is nursing a leg injury and not nearly 100%. Northwestern comes in with an 18-6 record and only one of those losses have come by double digits. The Cats have also struggled a bit offensively with leading scorer Lindsey out with mono, however this team plays very good defense. They are ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and should give a struggling Wisconsin offense all kinds of trouble. This should be a lower scoring game with the total set at 125 making the points very valuable here. NW has had extra time to prepare after playing on Tuesday while Wisconsin was in Nebraska playing an overtime game on Thursday. This is a huge game for Northwestern’s NCAA resume and we think we’ll get another nailbiter in Madison. Take the points. |
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02-12-17 | Cincinnati v. SMU -5 | Top | 51-60 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* SMU -5 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET The Mustangs have been waiting for this one. They come into this game with an 11-1 conference record and their only loss was @ Cincy by a final score of 66-64. The Bearcats are 11-0 in league play so this one could be for all the marbles. SMU had their chances in that 2-point los missing a 3 pointer with 7 seconds remaining and a layup with 3 seconds left that would have pushed the game to OT. This time they get the Bearcats at home where SMU has simply been dominant. They are 14-0 at home with their wins coming by an average margin of 22 points. Their AAC home games have resulted in wins of 40, 21, 20, 19, and 14 points. All but 1 of their 14 home wins have come by more than 10 points. They are 8-1 ATS at home covering those by a combined 90 points or a full 10 PPG above the spread. Cincy is obviously very good with a perfect AAC record. However they’ve played 4 of their last 5 games at home and their one road tilt @ Tulsa the Bearcats had to come from 9 down with 6:00 minutes to win by 2. In their 7 road games, Cincinnati is 6-1, however they are averaging only 62 PPG in those games and shooting just 38% from the field and 28% from beyond the arc. They are facing a Mustang team that hits almost 50% of their shots at home while allowing opponents to shoot just 35%. SMU has won 33 of their last 34 games at home and this is one of their biggest home games ever. We think they rise to the occasion and roll in this one. |
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02-11-17 | Magic v. Mavs -6 | Top | 80-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
514 Dallas Mavericks (-6) over Orlando Magic, 9PM ET - We like the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic. These two teams are trending in opposite directions as the Mavericks got off to a slow start to the season but have now won 10 of their last 15 games. Included in that streak is a 5-1 run their last six home games with all of those victories coming by more than today's spread. Orlando on the other hand is in a funk to say the least with a 4-15 SU record their last 19 games. Included in that run is a 2-9 SU road record and the majority of those road defeats were in blowout fashion. Looking at differentials we find the Mavs have an average point differential of +1PPG their last five games while the Magic are a negative -10.8PPG their last five. Orlando has the 4th worst road point differential at -7PPG and rank near the bottom of the league in road offensive efficiency and DEFF. The Mavs have covered 8 straight at home and get a double digit win again today! |
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02-11-17 | Green Bay +3 v. Wright State | Top | 79-88 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UW Green Bay +3 over Wright State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - Horizon League Game of the Month UWGB is off a 69-67 loss @ Northern Kentucky on Thursday. Despite the tight loss the Phoenix remain in 2nd place in the Horizon but have dropped 2 games behind Valpo making this a huge game. With just 5 games remaining, Green Bay needs this win to keep their shot at the conference title alive. We faded UWGB on Thursday as we felt it was a great spot with Northern Kentucky playing very well and the Phoenix coming off a huge win over conference leader Valpo. Even with that, GB played well and had a shot to win. Now off a loss in a must win spot, we think they get it. GB has been a solid road team in Horizon play with a 3-3 record and two of their three losses coming by 2 points or fewer. The Phoenix whipped WSU at home by 17 this year and they were far from efficient offensively shooting only 42% in the win. Wright State is off a home win Thursday vs 2nd to last place UWM but the Raiders have already lost 2 home games despite not hosting any of the Horizon’s top 3 yet this season (Valpo, UWGB, and Oakland). GB has covered covered 5 of their last 6 this year as a dog and we think they win this one outright. |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 over Utah Jazz, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we play on the Dallas Mavericks at home plus the points over the Utah Jazz. Utah is off a blowout win last night in New Orleans and are facing a rested Mavs team off a pair of losses including a home loss to the Blazers most recently. When playing without rest the Jazz are 7-5 SU on the year but they are just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight in that scheduling situation. Prior to their two game losing streak the Mavericks had won 6 of eight games and one of those losses was at home against the Jazz by 5-points in OT. Dallas is 8-9 SU at home off a loss this year but they've covered 7 o their last nine in that situation and 7 straight home covers overall in any role. The dog is also 4-1 last five meetings and Dallas has dominated the Jazz on this court for years. Dallas is playing much better of late and we expect a home win here by the Mavs. |
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02-08-17 | Suns +9 v. Grizzlies | Top | 91-110 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Phoenix Suns (+9) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz are in an unfamiliar role tonight as a 9-point chalk which is the largest pointspread they've been favored by all season long. Memphis has some other scheduling dynamics going against them here as they are off a huge win over the Spurs and have Golden State next on the schedule. Not to mention they recently beat the Suns by 19 in Phoenix. I watched that game live the Grizzlies hit a franchise record 16 3-pointers while making 57% from beyond the arc. Don't expect a repeat performance as the Grizzlies are the 21st worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Memphis has a below average home point differential in the NBA at +2.4PPG and now they're being asked to cover near double digits in this scheduling situation? No way! Phoenix hasn't been bad on the road lately (4 straight covers) with a 5-point loss at New Orleans, 2-point win at Sacramento, 7-point loss at Denver and a pair of wins in Toronto and New York. The Suns will be focused here after their embarrassing loss to Memphis just a few days ago. Grab the points. |
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02-07-17 | Syracuse v. Clemson -3.5 | Top | 82-81 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Clemson -3.5 over Syracuse, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - ASA's ACC GAME OF THE MONTH Clemson is in must win mode at home tonight. This is a veteran team that has aspirations of making the NCAA tourney. Sitting at 13-9 overall and 3-7 in the ACC, this becomes a must win game at home. This team is better than their record. They’ve played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation with only 4 of their 24 opponents ranked outside the top 100. Of their 9 losses, 6 of come by 6 points or fewer. In ACC play they’ve lost to UNC in OT, UVA by 4, Virginia Tech by 1, and Notre Dame by 5. The Tigers should be extra motivated here coming off their worst performance of the season, a rare blowout loss @ FSU on Sunday. Coach Brad Brownell was disgusted with his team’s performance and because of the lop sided loss, he was able to spread his minutes out getting the starters some rest. Only one player played more than 25 minutes and 9 different players saw double digit minutes. The offense hit only 37% of their shots and a normally solid defense allowed FSU to shoot a ridiculous 66% for the game. You can bet Clemson will play with fire in their bellies tonight. Syracuse has won 4 straight but 3 of those have come at home. Their only road win during that stretch was in OT @ NC State. The fact is, that’s the only road win this season for the Orange who come into this one with a 1-5 mark in road games. Not only that, all 5 of their road losses have come by at least 10 points. Their defense has been shredded away from home allowing over 51% from the field. Expect Clemson’s offense, who averages 80 PPG at home, to get back on track tonight. We’ll side with the desperate home team tonight. |
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02-06-17 | Thunder v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 90-93 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We successfully played on the OKC Thunder yesterday at home in their win over Portland but today we will turn around and play against them. From a scheduling standpoint, this is a bad spot for the Thunder having just played at home yesterday while the Pacers were at home resting. This is also the Thunder’s 3rd game in a four-day span. OKC has been great at home this season but haven’t played as well on the road where they are 12-15 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.6PPG which is the bottom half of the league in that category. When playing without rest the Thunder are 3-7 SU this year with a differential average of -5PPG. On the flip side the Pacers are playing lights out right now and are on a 6-game winning streak, including 3 straight at home. Indiana is 19-6 SU at home this year, 8-1 their last 9 and have the 10th best home point differential in the NBA of +5.8PPG. After a slow start and dealing with several key injuries the Pacers are finally living up to expectations and this is a perfect spot to play on them at home laying a marginal number. |
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02-06-17 | East Tennessee State v. Wofford +4 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Wofford +4 over ETSU, Monday at 7:00 PM ET It’s a no brainer to at least consider Wofford at home if they are getting points. That’s because this team is 32-4 SU at home their last 36 including 8-1 this year with their only loss coming by 1-point in overtime. They’ve been tabbed a home underdog only twice since the start of the 2014 season. After playing 3 consecutive road games, Wofford is just happy to be back at home as they haven’t played on this court since January 25th. The Terriers are playing well despite playing three straight on the road winning two of those. They have won 5 of their last 7 overall with their only two losses coming @ Western Carolina by 6 and @ ETSU by 7. In that game @ ETSU the Terriers were outshot 58% to 45% yet it still was close throughout. Now they get ETSU at home where Wofford shoots 52% on the season. Wofford in the most efficient offense in the Southern Conference and the 4th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% from the charity stripe (ETSU hit 66% of their FT’s). The Buccaneers are playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and the host has won this game 8 of the last 10 meetings. We think Wofford has a great shot to win this and even if they don’t, we have some points to work with. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 266 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Atlanta, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET The Patriots are in their element here. They’ve already been here 6 times in the Belichick/Brady Era and won 4 of those. You can bet Brady is ultra-focused and motivated here as a win would cement him as the greatest of all time with 5 Super Bowl Rings – would be the most by a QB in NFL history. He also has a bit of an agenda here as he’s still extremely angry with commissioner Roger Goodell for suspending him for 4 games this season because of the deflate gate stuff. Goodell decided to skip the game in New England last week and go to Atlanta and you can bet that didn’t go unnoticed by Brady and the Pats. The Atlanta players have no experience with this situation. This is their first Super Bowl appearance since 1999 and the distractions and craziness leading up to the game is all new to them. That gives Belichick and company a huge advantage in our opinion. This will be the 7th time the NFL’s top scoring defense (New England) faces the top scoring offense (Atlanta) in the Super Bowl. The team with the top scoring defense has won all but one of those games. Belichick will have two weeks to get his defense ready for Atlanta’s offense which is a huge bonus in our opinion. He won’t let the Falcons go up and down the field as they did last week vs a porous and injury riddled Packer defense that rated as one of the worst in the NFL. The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta. We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game. This Patriot defense has allowed 30+ points only once this entire season and they’ve held 13 of their 18 opponents this year to under 20 points. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if Belichick slows this game down and uses his running game to eat clock keeping Atlanta’s offense on the sidelines. The Pats are good enough to win that type of game or if it turns into a shootout, this offense CAN keep up with Atlanta. While the Falcons defense has improved late in the season, they have also allowed 20 or more points in 13 of their 18 games this season. Brady should be able to pick apart one of the youngest defenses in the NFL. Let’s not forget the Pats have lost a grand total of ONE game with Brady in the line up (vs Seattle). Atlanta had losses to TB, San Diego, Philly, and Seattle, three of those being non-playoff teams. New England is simply the better team and their experience in this situation is a HUGE factor. Lay the field goal with the PATRIOTS. |
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02-05-17 | Blazers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 3PM ET - Play on the OKC Thunder minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers are not a good road team where they are just 8-18 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.9PPG which is 8th worst in the NBA. The Blazers are 1-3 SU their last four road games and two of those defeats were at Charlotte and Philadelphia who are not as good as the Thunder team they’ll face today. OKC is clearly not as good as they were last season but they still enjoy a 17-7 SU home record this season with an average point differential of +6.7PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Thunder are even better at home when it comes to the West, having won 13 of 15 this season and 7 straight by an average of 14PPG. The Thunder have covered 4 of the last five meetings here against the Blazers and with Portland’s guard Damian Lillard struggling with his shooting stroke (under 40% last 5 from field, 32% from beyond the arc) right now this is a perfect spot to fade the Blazers and play on the Thunder. OKC by double digits! |