NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Sunday.

We missed badly with the 'over' in the Rockets matinee affair against the Nuggets in Denver yesterday as Houston turned in a rare strong defensive showing (or perhaps it was just a sleepy game all around) in a narrow one-point loss. The Rockets are still a bad defensive team as far as I'm concerned and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full against the red hot Warriors on Sunday. Note that on eight occasions where they've been listed as a 12.5-point or higher road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, the Rockets have put up an impressive 118.4 points on average, resulting in an average total of 244.8 points in that situation, as is the case here. The 'over' is 14-4 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, leading to an average total of 233.6 points in that spot. The Warriors have held each of their last three opponents to 92 points or less but I do think some regression is in order here. I do think they'll come out with an attacking mentality given the Rockets are in a second of back-to-back and three-in-four spot here and the pace alone should help the Houston offense contribute enough to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Note that Houston did put up 109 points in its lone trip to San Francisco last season with that game totaling 234 points. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Denver at 5:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Nuggets have now seen the 'under' cash in four straight and seven of their eight games so far this season. I believe Houston is an ideal opponent to break that streak on Saturday afternoon in Denver. Note that the Nuggets absolutely throttled the Rockets defense in three meetings last year, putting up 124, 128 and 129 points. The two games played here in Denver between these two teams totaled 235 and 245 points. The Rockets come into this game having dropped the first three games on their current road trip. Houston isn't going to play much defense but it can score, as evidenced by the fact that it enters this contest having put up 117 and 111 points in its last two games. The Rockets should continue to push the pace here as they try to break out of their slide, keeping in mind they did manage to score 111 and 116 points in two matchups here in Denver last season. The same trend we've supported in the Rockets last two games is in play again here, noting that the 'over' is 14-3 with Houston playing on the road off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 236.3 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Pacers haven't been involved in as many high-scoring track meets as they were last season, at least early on here in 2021-22. With that being said, I believe the totals have been over-adjusted as a result. With the 'under' having cashed in three of Indiana's last four games, I believe we're being given a very reasonable number to work with here. The Pacers enter this contest on their first two-game winning streak of the season. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times they've come off consecutive victories, resulting in an average total of 241.5 points. As for the Blazers, they're reeling right now off three straight losses. All three of those losses came on the road though. Back at home, I expect them to go back to their sharp-shooting ways. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 236.0 points in that spot. The last time we saw these two teams match up they combined to score a whopping 245 points last April. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Magic are coming off an awful showing against the Celtics two nights ago as they fell by a score of 92-79 in an extremely low-scoring affair. I look for a different story to unfold as they welcome the Spurs to Amway Arena on Friday night. Keep in mind, prior to that poor performance, the Magic had scored 111, 109, 103 and 115 points in their previous four games. The 'over' is still 6-3 in their nine games to date this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 24-10 with the Magic revenging a same-season loss against an opponent going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 221.8 points. Better still, the 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Orlando has been at home revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent (the Spurs beat the Magic 123-97 in San Antonio on October 20th), producing an average total of 228.5 points in that spot. The Spurs check in having scored 118 and 108 points in their last two games, shooting 52.8% and 48.9% from the field in those two contests. The 'over' is 23-11 in their last 34 games against Eastern Conference foes, with an average total of 227.5 points scored. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

Memphis is coming off consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' is 4-1 in its last five contests. I look for that trend to reverse on Friday, however, as the Grizzlies head to Washington to face the Wizards. Washington is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair of its own against Toronto two nights ago. Note that prior to that, the Wiz had seen their last three games go 'over' the total with those contests reaching 233, 227 and 229 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Grizzlies on the road coming off three wins in their last four games going back to last season, good for an average total of 240.7 points. When the Grizz play on the road off consecutive wins, they're on a 13-2 'over' streak, with that situation producing an average total of 238.9 points. As for the Wizards, they've seen an average total of 238.8 points scored the last 24 times they've played at home following an 'under' result. Expect a return to 'normal' for Washington here. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Thursday.

PLEASE NOTE: Downgrading this to a 5* play with the news that Lebron James will be OUT tonight.

We won with the 'over' in the Lakers most recent game - a narrow 119-117 victory over the Rockets two nights ago. The fact that the Thunder are coming off a game that totaled only 193 points against the Clippers while the Lakers are just one game removed from a contest that totaled only 180 points is keeping this total lower than it probably should be. I do think this total would make sense if we were talking about last season's Lakers team. The 2021-22 edition is much stronger offensively, however, while still playing an inconsistent brand of defensive basketball. The Thunder are by no means an offensive juggernaut. In fact, they're one of the worst offensive teams in the league by most metrics. With that being said, they did put up 123 points in a win over the Lakers last week and I'm confident we'll see them push the pace again here after being held to 82 and 94 points in consecutive losses to open this three-game road trip. Note that the last time we saw them shoot worse than 40% in consecutive games they bounced back with a 47.6% shooting effort, scoring 103 points against the 76ers. Having scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games and with revenge on their minds given that aforementioned loss against the Thunder, I fully expect to see the Lakers go off offensively in this one. They've put up 128, 119, 114 and 115 points in four meetings with the Thunder going back to last season. I will point out, however, that they've allowed 113.3 points on average when coming off consecutive home wins going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 224.2 points. This total proves to be too low on Thursday. Take the over (5*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday.

We've yet to see scoring really pick up in the NBA this season but I do think it's only a matter of time before we see a shift away from the lower-scoring contests. In this spot, I simply feel the total has been set too low. The Rockets are by no means a quality defensive team. They're going to have their hands full with a surging Suns squad on Thursday night. We have seen Houston stay competitve at times this season thanks to its offense. That could very well be the case again on Thursday. Note that the 'over' is 13-3 the last 16 times the Rockets have played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points. On the flip side, the Suns have seen the 'over' cash at a 23-9 clip the last 32 times they've come off a double-digit win, producing an average total of 227 points in that spot. The 'over' is also a profitable 39-22 after the Suns give up 105 points or less in a game over the last 2+ seasons, good for an average total of 224.4 points in that situation. The last time these two teams met in the desert they combined to put up 246 points last April. We don't need anything close to that level of track meet to cash this ticket. Take the over (7*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

Off yet another relatively low-scoring game last night the 76ers have now seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for that streak to come to an end in Motown on Thursday. Despite that 'under' streak, the 76ers offense has performed well, scoring at least 109 points in six of eight games to date this season. Tonight's opponent, Detroit, is certainly not defensive powerhouse, having allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. In fact, over their last two games, the Pistons have allowed the Nets and Bucks to shoot a blazing 89-for-156 (57.1%). Given their defense looks broken, the Pistons will need to step up offensively in order to stay competitive in this one and I'm confident they can do just that, noting that arguably a weaker offensive squad managed to put up 110 and 119 points in two home meetings with the 76ers last season. Having shot worse than 41% from the field in six of seven games so far this season, it's only a matter of time before some more of Detroit's shots start falling. The Pistons might be catching the 76ers in the right place at the right time as Philadelphia is 'fat and happy' off four straight victories, all coming at home, and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to shoot 46.3% or better from the field. Keep an eye on the status of Joel Embiid for the Sixers as he's been known to rest on the back half of back-to-backs, allowing recovery time for an ailing knee. If he doesn't go that should only serve to give us an even better number to work with. Take the over (8*).

NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

It's early in the season but this is a key Atlantic Division showdown between the Bulls and Celtics. I believe the first half total will prove too low as both teams look to get off to quick starts on Monday night. Note that the Bulls have got off to plenty of fast starts offensively this season, scoring 65, 54, 61, 51 and 54 points in the first half over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Celtics had put up 53, 68 and 52 points in the first half in their last three contests before being held to only 47 points in the back half of a home-and-home set with the Wizards on Saturday. Poor starts defensively have been problematic for the C's this season as they check in giving up 56.2 points on average in the first half through their first six games. I think both teams will come into this game knowing they're going to need to put up a lot of points to secure a win. I do respect both head coaches and feel that the necessary defensive adjustments could be made at halftime, however, so we'll play the first half 'over' the total only in this one. Take the first half over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday.

The Nets have seen all six of their games stay 'under' the total this season but I look for that trend to reverse on Sunday. Detroit is coming off three consecutive games scoring over 100 points despite shooting 44% or worse in all three contests. The Nets got into a bit of a slog against the struggling Pacers last time out but I believe the Pistons will be more easily baited into a high-scoring affair here. Like Detroit, Brooklyn hasn't been shooting particularly well but this looks like a fine spot to improve on their shooting percentage and pad their offensive starts noting that the Pistons have allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, allowing 122, 110 and 103 points in the process. Note that the 'over' has gone 29-15 with the Nets coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 231 points. Also note that two of three meetings between these two teams last season reached at least 224 total points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen this total drop, likely due in part to the questionable tag on Joel Embiid as he deals with a nagging knee injury. Regardless whether the 76ers big man plays or not, I like this one to go 'over' the total. Note that the Hawks will be playing their third road game in the last five nights. The 'over' has cashed at a 13-2 clip in that same situation over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 231.9 points scored. The 76ers are coming off a low-scoring win over the Pistons. They didn't play at a fast pace in that game but probably knew they didn't have to against a subpar Detroit offense. Here, I think we'll see the Sixers make a more concerted effort to get up and down the floor and keep pace as the Hawks are fully capable of going off offensively. Note that the 76ers have averaged 114.8 points when coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 220.1 points (45-game sample size). The last four meetings between these two teams did stay 'under' the total but that was during their seven-game playoff series last June. Two of the first three contests in that series had gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday.

The Lakers are coming off three straight exceptionally high-scoring games but I like the 'catalyst for change' angle here as they return home to host the upstart Cavs on Friday night. Cleveland has reeled off three straight wins including two in a row to open its current road trip and it has done it by playing tough defense and controlling the tempo on offense. Only four teams have had fewer possessions per game than the Cavs this season. The formula has been working so I don't see them changing anything on Friday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-3 with the Cavs coming off a game where both teams scored 105 points or less over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 201.0 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in with the 'under' having gone 15-2 the last 17 times they've come off a stretch that saw them lose four of their last five games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 206.4 points. They're still dealing with a number of key injuries and regardless who suits up on Friday night, I expect them to make an effort to step up their game defensively after that second half collapse in Oklahoma City two nights ago. The last time these two teams met the Lakers cruised to a 100-86 win here in Los Angeles last March with that game staying 'under' the total by 20 points. Look for this total to prove too high as well. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

I really do feel this game has 'track meet potential' even though it isn't being priced as such. That's due in large part to the fact that the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0 in each of these teams last three games. I expect that trend to reverse on Friday, however. Credit the Kings for scoring more than 100 points in all four games this season as they've faced an absolutely brutal schedule, going up against Portland, Utah, Golden State and Phoenix. They haven't shot the ball particularly well but that's been a product of the level of opposition they've faced more than anything else. Here, they catch a Pelicans defense that is in line for some considerable defensive regression after holding three straight opponents to 41.7% or worse shooting. New Orleans has gotten off to an uneven start offensively but the signs of a breakout are there. Last time out against Atlanta the Pelicans scored 33 points in the first quarter, building a 14-point lead, but then got complacent and ultimately faded in the second half in a 102-99 loss (we did win with the Pelicans plus the points in that one but missed with the 'over'). Here, they face a Kings squad that has allowed at least 107 points in all four games this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 with the Pelicans having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 230.5 points. All three of last year's meetings between these two teams were high-scoring, totaling 251, 227 and 227 points. Of course, the Pelicans don't have the services of Zion Williamson right now, but they're no slouches offensively with the additions of Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte' Graham. Take the over (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

We won by the narrowest of margins with the 'over' in the Rockets last game as they fell by a 116-106 score in Dallas (some likely 'pushed' as the total ended up closing at 222). That one was set up well for a high-scoring result but a low-scoring fourth quarter ended up keeping the final score in a reasonable range, which has allowed us to step in and play the 'over' again on Thursday at an even more favorable number as the Rockets return home to host the Jazz. Houston isn't going to win many defensive slugfests this season. This young Houston squad is going to have to come up with something special offensively in order to outgun a superior Jazz squad on Thursday. While the Rockets have benefited from facing some teams that have yet to get rolling this season in the Thunder, Celtics and Mavs (they were rolled by the T'Wolves who have admittedly been playing well in their other contest), here they'll run into a Utah team that is coming off its best offensive performance of the season, putting up 122 points on just shy of 52% shooting against Denver two nights ago (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Jazz had little trouble running it up against the Rockets last season, scoring 114, 112 and 124 points in three meetings. The Rockets on the other hand were held under 100 points in two of those three matchups. I believe they're a better team this year, however. They've knocked down better than 47% of their field goal attempts in two previous home games this season and I think catching the Jazz 'fat and happy' off three consecutive lopsided wins to open the campaign is a good thing. Note that Utah did allow Denver to shoot 50.6% from the field on Tuesday. The 'over' is 32-17 with the Jazz coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.6 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets check in averaging 109.9 points when playing at home off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 226.9 points in that spot. Take the over (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

Most are down on the Nuggets after their embarrassing home loss against the Cavaliers last night. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Denver offense here, however, noting that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Nuggets have come off a home loss, averaging 119.2 points on average in that spot with an average total of 227.1 points scored. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 49-33 o/u record when coming off an ATS win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 31-17 the last 48 times the Jazz have come off consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 227.5 points. This total has moved too low due to early season results. Take the over (8*).

NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We've seen this total drop since opening and I believe it's a knee-jerk reaction after the Pacers were involved in a low-scoring 102-91 victory over the Heat on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana's first two games this season totaled 245 and 269 points. In three meetings between the Bucks and Pacers last season we saw 240, 253 and 275 total points. When playing a Bucks 'over', we generally like to do so when they're coming off a win, noting that situation has produced a 37-23 o/u record going back to last season, good for an average total of 234.4 points scored. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 19-8 with the Pacers coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. Better still, the 'over' has gone 26-11 with the Pacers playing consecutive home games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.8 points. Take the over (8*).

NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*).

NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed badly with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Saturday as neither team could miss in a high-scoring track meet. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however, as the Suns face the prospect of watching the Bucks hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy in Milwaukee.

Note that the Bucks have now shot better than 50% in consecutive games - only the third time they've accomplished that feat this season. In both previous occurrences they failed to make it three straight games shooting north of 50%, with the 'under' cashing in both of those contests.

Despite losing both games, the Suns have also shot better than 50% from the field in consecutive games. The Bucks certainly haven't been at their best defensively in this series but with a chance to win a championship at home on Tuesday night I would expect to see them rise to the occasion at that end of the floor, noting that they've allowed 2.1 points per game less than their season average and limited opponents to 44.9% shooting at home this season. Milwaukee is giving up just 105.5 points per game in the playoffs and 107 points per contest when attempting to close out a series.

Phoenix had actually done a solid job defensively in this series, apart from allowing far too many free throws in the two games played here in Milwaukee, prior to getting lit up in Game 5 on Saturday. Perhaps building a 16-point first quarter lead was the worst thing that could have happened to the Suns as odd as it sounds, as complacency seemed to set in early in the second quarter and they were never able to regain their footing the rest of the way.

The Suns still have a solid track record defensively in these playoffs, having allowed 104.5 points per game on 44% shooting. After allowing a series-high 21 fast break points on Saturday, look for them to make a concerted effort to slow the pace and turn this into more of a street fight on Tuesday night. Take the under (8*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday.

Now that this series is tied up at two games apiece, this is obviously a critical Game 5 matchup between the Bucks and Suns in Phoenix on Saturday night. Despite the fact that we're dealing with non-conference foes, this will now be the seventh matchup between these two teams this season. As I've said many times previously, familiarity generally lends itself to tighter, lower-scoring basketball (relatively speaking) and I believe we're in for that type of affair on Saturday night in the desert.

Milwaukee actually allowed Phoenix to shoot 51.3% from the field in Game 4. You would have to go all the way back to February 10th and 12th to find the last time the Bucks allowed north of 50% shooting in consecutive games this season so I expect them to bounce back at the defensive end of the floor here. Devin Booker of course went off for 42 points last time out but it's worth noting the two previous times he scored 40 points or more in these playoffs, he followed it up with 21 and 20-point efforts in his next game.

The Bucks managed to score 120 and 109 points in their two home victories but that was thanks in large part to a considerable free throw disparity (they got to the free throw line 55 times in those two games), something they're not likely to experience again with the scene shifting back to Phoenix for Game 5.

While the Suns offense has been prolific this season, it's been their defense that has really shone here at home, allowing just 106.6 points per game. In these playoffs they've allowed only 103.6 points per game with their games averaging a total of 212.6 points. Bucks playoff games have averaged 214.9 total points. Look for this one to stay 'under' the total on Saturday night. Take the under (10*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Thursday.

We saw some nerves early on in Game 1 but once the two teams settled down the offenses started flowing and we didn't see a great deal of tough defensive play. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2.

Generally, I like to play Bucks 'overs' when they come off a win, and 'unders' when they follow a loss. The trends bear it out as Milwaukee has posted an 11-20 o/u record when coming off a loss this season. Better still, the 'under' has gone 12-3 when the Bucks come off three consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here.

Keep in mind, the 'under' is still 10-7-1 in all Bucks playoff games with an average total of just 214.1 points scored. The 'under' owns a slight 9-8 edge in Suns playoff games with those contests totaling an average of only 211.5 points.

While Phoenix won Game 1 there are still adjustments for it to make here after Milwaukee shot 44% from beyond the arc, knocking down 16 three-pointers in the series-opener.

Meanwhile, we should see some regression from the Suns in a couple of key areas here after Chris Paul poured in 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and DeAndre Ayton put up 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting on Tuesday night. Note that it was only the fourth time in these playoffs that CP3 scored more than 22 points while Ayton averages just 14.4 points per game on 62.6% shooting this season.

The Bucks obviously need to make some adjustments here and I'm confident they will noting that they allow just 104.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting in these playoffs. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring Game 5 on Thursday night, ending a streak of three straight 'under' results in the series. I'm not anticipating another track meet here, however, as the Hawks return home to face elimination on Saturday night.

We can expect Atlanta to make the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing on Thursday, as it allowed Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field. Giannis isn't expected back for the Bucks and while Trae Young may or may not be able to return for the Hawks, I like this play regardless.

Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 with the Bucks playing on the road off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-7 clip with the Hawks playing the role of home favorite this season.

Off Thursday's relatively lopsided game, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair here on Saturday and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring result, noting that Bucks playoff games have averaged just 212.8 total points while Hawks postseason games have resulted in an average total of 213.4 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Sunday night. In fact, we've won with the 'under' in each of the last two games. Here, I look for a different story to unfold in Game 4.

We're being given a discounted total here due in large part to Hawks superstar Trae Young's status being up in the air after he bruised his foot in Sunday's loss. I would expect Young to play in this game but even if he doesn't, I still expect to see a relatively high-scoring affair.

I've noted before that the Bucks have been a solid 'over' bet when coming off a win this season. Better still, off two or more consecutive victories, Milwaukee has posted a 23-12 o/u mark this season with those contests averaging 237.1 total points. Also note that the 'over' is 15-5 with the Hawks playing at home after a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games reaching an average total of 237.0 points.

Keep in mind, the Bucks are allowing nearly two points per game higher than their season average points allowed when playing on the road this season.

With the 'under' having gone a combined 19-9-1 in all Bucks and Hawks playoff games, it's not a surprise that the totals are starting to get shaded much lower than we're accustomed to seeing. We even saw a closing total as high as 234 points in a game between these two teams back in April.

With this being a virtual must-win for the Hawks (few teams come back from a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Playoffs, especially without home court advantage) I expect them to throw everything they've got at Milwaukee here, which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday.

NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'first half over' which is currently set at 106 points at the time of writing.

While I would like to play the full game 'over' the total in this one off that ridiculously low-scoring Game 4 result on Saturday, I can't quite get there with the possibility that we see the Suns shift into cruise control should they build a sizeable second half lead in this one. In general, it seems that we've seen a trend this round with games starting out fairly high-scoring before petering out down the stretch.

We can expect the Suns to come out with an attacking mindset here as they look to wrap up this series and give themselves even more rest heading into the NBA Finals. We certainly haven't seen their best over the last couple of games, particularly from Devin Booker after he broke his nose in Game 2. Back at home, I do expect to see a much better offensive showing from Phoenix, noting that it averages just shy of 59 points per game in the first half here this season.

For the Clippers, this could be their last stand and off a miserable 32.5% shooting performance on Saturday we can expect them to bounce back and come out strong here, noting that they hadn't shot worse than 45% from the field since Game 1 against Utah last round and even in that contest they shot a respectable 42.4%. Game 4 marked the first time since back on April 1st that Los Angeles was held to fewer than 100 points in a game.

Again, should the Suns build a considerable lead in the second half of this game we could very well see the Kawhi-less Clippers fold the tent and call it a season. With that in mind, we'll call for a relatively high-scoring start as this one gets 'over' the very reasonable first half total. Take the first half over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Sunday.

The first two games in this series have been relatively high-scoring although only one of those contests managed to find its way 'over' the total. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 on Friday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play here as the scene shifts to Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bucks put up 125 points in Friday's blowout win. The last time we saw them put up that type of offensive performance, their next game easily stayed 'under' the total, reaching only 197 points in Game 3 of round one against Miami.

Note that Bucks playoff games are averaging a total of just 212.1 points. Hawks playoff games are averaging just 212.9 total points.

Atlanta, like most NBA teams, has been a better defensive team at home this season, where it gives up 108.5 points per game compared to its season average of 110.7 ppg allowed. I don't think they want to get involved in a track meet with Milwaukee here as that would play into the Bucks preferred pace of play. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday.

Game 1 managed to creep over the total in the closing minute of the fourth quarter but I look for a different story to unfold on Friday night.

Keep in mind, Hawks playoff games have totaled an average of just 212.6 points. Meanwhile, Bucks playoff games have totaled only 211.7 points on average.

The Bucks have of course been a much better defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 111 points per game on 44.8% shooting. The Hawks on the other hand, average 1.5 points per game fewer and shoot 0.6% below their season average on the road. That's not a big difference by any means but still worth noting as they come off a peak performance away from home in Game 1.

The 'under' is a perfect 10-0 the last 10 times the Hawks have played on the road coming off consecutive outright road underdog victories, as is the case here. Milwaukee has seen the 'under' go a solid 19-10 when coming off a loss this season with those games totaling an average of 220.3 points. Take the under (9*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday.

Thanks to Game 1 finishing north of 230 points we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the series-opener, a move that I'm not convinced is warranted.

The Clippers allowed the Suns to shoot better than 55% from the field in Game 1. Perhaps that wasn't all that surprising considering how little time they had to prepare for the Suns surging offense (which had a different look than they're used to with Chris Paul sidelined). Here, we can bank on the Clippers responding favorably from a defensive standpoint noting that on five previous occasions where they've come off a game where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 55% from the field they've given up just 103.6 points per contest.

Note that the 'under' has gone 32-18 the last 50 times the Clippers have played as a road underdog, as is the case here.

The Suns are known for their offense led by Devin Booker (who recorded a triple-double in Game 1) and Chris Paul (who as I mentioned remains sidelined). However, they're actually a quality defensive team, allowing just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season.

There's no question that Kawhi Leonard's absence makes the Clippers a weaker defensive team but it hurts them offensively as well. The Suns didn't do a great job of defending Paul George in Game 1 but just like Los Angeles, Phoenix should make the necessary defensive adjustments here.

Noting that this will now be the fifth meeting between these two teams this season with only Game 1 finding its way 'over' the total we're dealing with for Game 2, familiarity has a tendency to lend itself to tighter, lower-scoring contests. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Sunday.

This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far. I believe it will prove too low.

The Hawks have held the 76ers to 46.7% shooting or worse in three straight games but I think this is a game where they struggle to 'hold onto the rope' so to speak. Philadelphia is a better offensive team than it has shown over the last few games, averaging 117.9 points per game here at home this season.

Note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the 76ers playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 222.3 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with the 76ers at home off an ATS victory, with that situation producing an average total of 231.8 points.

Meanwhile, the Hawks have shot 47.6% or worse in five straight games since opening this series with a 51.2% shooting performance in a 128-124 victory. Atlanta really has nothing to lose in this one as few gave it any legitimate shot at winning this series from the outset. There's little reason for the Hawks to hold anything back and should they fall behind, we can expect them to shift into 'hack-a-Ben' mode in an effort to extend this game. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 8:35 pm et on Saturday.

Whether this is a competitive affair or a blowout, I like the chances of it being high-scoring after the first six games in this series have been predominantly low-scoring (relatively speaking), with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip (or 5-0-1 depending on your number in Game 5).

The Nets essentially 'folded the tent' and moved on to Game 7 after falling behind in Game 6 in Milwaukee on Thursday. Here, we can expect them to bounce back from a poor 89-point effort back home where they've put up 115, 125 and 114 points in this series.

Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Bucks coming off a double-digit home win this season with those games totaling an average of 236.4 points. The 'over' has generally been a solid bet with Milwaukee following an 'under' result, going 46-33 over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 230.4 points.

As for the Nets, they've actually allowed 113.3 points per game as a favorite this season, with the 'over' cashing at a 35-23 clip. That situation has produced an average total of 233.1 points.

The Bucks just aren't the same defensive team on the road, where they allow 114.5 points per game this season. If they're going to finally steal a game here in Brooklyn when it matters most, they're going to need to put up a peak offensive performance, but given they average just shy of 118 points per game away from home, we know that they're capable. Take the over (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Monday night but I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5.

The Hawks aren't going to slow down the 76ers offense here in Philadelphia. That's a feat they've yet to accomplish in four previous tries this season, allowing 127, 127, 124 and 118 points. I fully expect to see them come out with an attacking mindset from the opening tip on Wednesday as they look to take advantage of a somewhat depleted 76ers defense with Joel Embiid playing on a bad knee. Monday's miserable 36.6% shooting performance from Atlanta had more to do with poor shot selection than it did the 76ers defense as far as I'm concerned. Look for the Hawks to do a better job of knocking down their shots on Wednesday night.

For the 76ers this is obviously a critical contest as they look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination with the series going back to Atlanta for Game 6. Note that the Hawks have been a considerably weaker defensive team on the road compared to at home this season, allowing 112.9 points per game on north of 47% shooting. For their part, the 76ers check in averaging over 118 points per game here at home.

Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the 76ers playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season with those contests averaging a total of 229.7 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with Philadelphia coming off a loss by six points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 226.3 points over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We've seen an incredible swing in this total since the start of this series, largely due to the injuries to Nets superstars James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but also due to the general low-scoring nature of the series so far. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as far as the scoring output goes and feel the total is moving in the wrong direction.

It's certainly worth noting that the Bucks defense is not the same on the road as it has been at home this season. They check in allowing 114.5 points per game on just shy of 46% shooting away from home this season with their games averaging 232.7 total points. While the Nets aren't the same explosive offensive team with only one of the 'big three', it's not as if they're completely devoid of talent. If anything Kevin Durant will take this as a challenge and we know he's capable of taking over a game all on his own.

Now that they've evened this series at two games apiece and with the Nets suddenly missing two of their best three players, I expect the Bucks to carry an attacking mindset into this Game 5 matchup in Brooklyn. We haven't seen much of a drop-off in production from the Bucks offensively on the road this season, even if they did turn in an absolutely dreadful performance the last time they played here in Game 2. Coming off a series-high tying 107-point effort in Game 4 and knowing there is so much room for improvement (they've shot 44.6% or worse in all four games in this series), I believe a Bucks offensive breakout is imminent at this point.

Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Bucks coming off a double-digit home win this season with those games totaling an average of 237.2 points. The 'over' is also 13-4 with the Nets coming off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last two seasons, with those contests reaching an average total of 238 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

The 76ers have absolutely shot the lights out in this series, shooting 52.9% or better from the field in all three games. They've now shot better than 51% in four consecutive games, one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. They posted that five-game streak back in the first two weeks of March but that stretch included games against the likes of the Pacers, Bulls, Wizards and Spurs.

The Hawks have actually been a solid defensive team, particularly at home where they allow 108.8 points per game on 45.1% shooting on the season. Despite the 'over' result in Game 3, the 'under' remains a profitable 21-17-1 in their 39 home games this season.

Note that the 'under' checks in 8-1 with the Hawks playing at home off two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, with those games averaging just 212.5 total points.

The 76ers have now allowed 100 or more points in six straight games, their longest such streak since April 14th to 24th. In their next game following that previous six-game streak they gave up only 90 points in a win over Oklahoma City. That game totaled just 211 points, staying comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 3:05 pm et on Sunday.

We've missed with the 'over' in the last couple of games in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon. The fact that the Nets are favored in this game is key. Note that the 'over' is 18-8 with Brooklyn checking in as a road favorite this season with those contests totaling an average of 239.8 points. Meanwhile the 'over' is 8-1 with the Bucks coming off a home win where they failed to cover the spread this season with those games reaching an average total of 248.6 points. Milwaukee has been a solid positive momentum play offensively this season, averaging a whopping 122.4 points per game when coming off a victory, as is the case here. While the Bucks were set on mucking things up and grinding out a Game 3 victory, here I look for the Nets to make the necessary adjustments and turn Sunday's game into a track meet. Take the over (10*).

NBA on ESPN Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We barely escaped with a win with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here.

The fact that the 76ers have shot better than 52% from the field in each of the first two games in this series is impressive, but not sustainable. In fact, Philadelphia checks in having shot better than 51% from the field in three straight games entering Friday's contest. Note that they haven't shot north of 50% in more than three consecutive games since the start of March and that five-game streak was the only time they pulled it off this season.

Philadelphia has been a considerably worse offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, where it averages 110.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting. The good news for the Sixers is that they've actually allowed fewer points on the road than at home, giving up only 107.8 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip this season.

Likewise, Hawks home games have been lower scoring than their road games. They're an underrated defensive squad, particularly at home where they've allowed just 108.3 points per game on 44.7% shooting this season, with the 'under' going 21-16-1.

Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the 76ers playing on the road as a favorite of six points or less this season with those games totaling an average of just 215 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

We missed with the 'over' in Game 2 between these two teams two nights ago as the lack of competitiveness from the Bucks once again led to a lower-scoring game than expected. It's become evident that Milwaukee isn't going to be able to slow down the Nets scoring machine, having now allowed 125, 114, 118, 115 and 125 points, with Brooklyn hardly breaking a sweat in the latter two performances, in five meetings this season. If the Bucks are going to get back in this series they're going to need to come up with a big offensive showing themselves on Thursday and I'm confident we'll see exactly that. Note that Milwaukee averages just shy of 121 points per game at home this season. It falls into an excellent situation here with the 'over' having gone 15-5 the last 20 times Milwaukee has been seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (the Bucks inexplicably closed as short favorites in Game 2 in Brooklyn). In that situation, the Bucks have averaged over 123 points per game with an average total of 239.8 points. Brooklyn has actually been a higher-scoring team on the road than at home this season, averaging 119.9 points per game with an average total of 237.1 points scored. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this game found its way 'over' the total which was not a surprising result by any means. I will be surprised if we don't see both teams tighten up defensively in Game 2 on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-9 with the Nuggets coming off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 219.3 points. Also note that the Nuggets have allowed just 107.6 points per game when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons while the Suns have given up just 102.2 points per game when favoted by six points or less at home this season. The Suns have generally been at their best offensively with two or more days' rest between games in these playoffs - largely due to Chris Paul's nagging shoulder injury needing time to heal up between games. Here, we're back to a game on just one day of rest which I do think could diminish the Suns offense somewhat. Phoenix is absolutely locked in defensively right now holding the opposition to 46.7% shooting or worse in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets know they need to toughen up defensively here after allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in three of their last four games. The 'over' has cashed in three straight meetings in this series. Time for a reversal of that trend here. Take the under (10*).

NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night. After taking two of three regular season meetings, the 76ers may have got caught taking the Hawks lightly in the series-opener. They got smacked in the mouth early in that game and didn't really recover until the fourth quarter when it was too little, too late. Here, I do expect to see the Sixers bounce back, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that the last three times they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field they responded by holding their next opponent to 90, 97 and 95 points, with none of those three contests eclipsing the total we're dealing with tonight. Meanwhile, thanks to a fourth quarter lapse, the Hawks allowed the Sixers to shoot better than 54% from the field in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that game they had held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Note that the 'under' is 23-7 the last 30 times the Hawks have been leading a playoff series. The 'under' is also 35-17 with the 76ers playing at home following a game that totaled 235 points or more. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

The Bucks are going to have to perform much better offensively than they did in Game 1 if they want to have any shot at upsetting the Nets in this series. I expect them to put forth a stronger showing here in Game 2 and a more competitive game should lend itself to the 'over'. Note that Game 1 was headed well north of the lofty total before the Nets took their foot off the gas with a big lead in the fourth quarter. The first three quarters totaled 62, 62 and 58 points - good for a full-game pace of 242.7 points. The fourth quarter totaled only 40 points. Now we're seeing a considerable overreaction in the Game 2 total, partly due to Game 1 being lower-scoring than expected, but also due to James Harden being sidelined for the Nets. Brooklyn is certainly used to playing without its 'Big Three' fully intact, however, and I expect it to still thrive offensively in this one. If anything, Harden's absence should only make Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving more aggressive in their shot selection. Keep in mind, two of three regular season matchups between these two teams totaled north of 240 points. Expect a return to form here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday.

This has turned into a low-scoring series over the last three games and I anticipate more of the same in Sunday's Game 7 matchup in Los Angeles. This is going to be a tough spot for Mavs superstar Luka Doncic as he comes off two straight 40+ minute performances and plays for the third time in five days while still dealing with that neck strain. Both teams have proven capable of tightening things up in crunch time, going back-and-forth over the last three games in this series. With the road team having dominated, this is obviously the Mavs turn to step up, but I do think they'll be met with a strong defensive effort from the Clips here. On the flip side, the Los Angeles offense led by Kawhi Leonard and Paul George hasn't given us much reason to trust it here at Staples Center in this series. Luka gets all of the headlines but the Mavs can play some defense as well and will undoubtedly show up off of Friday's fourth quarter meltdown. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday.

Regardless whether Joel Embiid is able to suit up for the 76ers or not, I like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 1 in this Eastern Conference semi-final series on Sunday. The Hawks cruised past the Knicks in round one but should find the going much tougher against the 76ers in round two. Note that Philadelphia checks in 32-7 at home this season where it has held opponents to 45% shooting this season. The 76ers have been locked in defensively for quite some time, having allowed just two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field going all the way back to April 26th. I'm not convinced the pace alone in this series is going to get many games up into the 220's. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the Sixers last three games, we haven't seen the 'over' cash in four straight games involving Philadelphia since way back in late February-early March when it posted a four-game 'over' streak. The Hawks, meanwhile, are a better defensive squad than most give them credit for. Trae Young and his sharp-shooting abilities grabs the headlines, but this team can play some 'D', as evidenced by the fact that it has held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse entering this series. After allowing 126 and 127 points in consecutive losses to the Sixers here in Philadelphia in late April, you can be sure Nate McMillan's squad will be hyper-focused on keeping the Sixers offense in check here. I simply feel we're going to see a much different series than we saw between Philadelphia and Washington, which was high-scoring in nature. Note that the 'under' cashed in two of three regular season meetings between these two teams. The Hawks check in sporting a 26-44 o/u mark when revenging consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 35-16 with the 76ers playing at home after a game that saw 235 points or more. Take the under (10*).

NBA Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday.

Game 5 managed to stay 'under' the total mostly due to its noncompetitive nature. The first quarter was actually fairly high-scoring but things got completely out of hand from there with Phoenix cruising to a 30-point victory. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair as the scene shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-1 with the Suns coming off a win by 20 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 237.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Phoenix coming off two or more straight wins this season with those games averaging 225.2 total points. While there are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers, the majority of those trends have resulted in average totals north of the relatively low number we're working with here tonight. Note that Lakers home games have totaled an average of 217.9 points this season. That includes a number of games where they were without both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. While Davis' status for Thursday's game remains in question, I would expect him to play. Even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Utah at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday.

Let's try this again, shall we? After cashing the Jazz minus the points in Game 2 we went with the 'under' in both Games 3 and 4, coming up empty as both contests sailed 'over' the total. Here, with the scene shifting back to Utah, I'm looking for a lower-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' has gone 35-19 with the Grizzlies losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 216.9 points. We've also seen the 'under' go 31-13 after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.8 points. For the Jazz's part, they've seen the 'under' go 13-4 when playing at home off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 208.2 points with Utah allowing just 97.6 points in that spot. With this being an elimination game - the first in this series - we can expect things to finally tighten up a bit, keeping in mind, the series-opener over a week ago did stay 'under' the number we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Suns have now posted consecutive 'under' results for the first time since March 26th and 28th but I expect that streak to end at two games with a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. The Lakers will likely be without Anthony Davis for this one, which certainly puts a damper on their offense. However, it also serves to open things up a bit for the Suns offense which is in line for a breakout performance after being held to 100 points or less in three of the first four games in this series and 109 points or less in all four contests. Keep in mind, the Suns average 115.7 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting here at home this season. It certainly looked like Chris Paul's shoulder was feeling much better in Game 4 on Sunday and while just one day between games is a bit of a concern, it's not as if he was overly taxed in Game 4, playing just 31 minutes. Note that the 'over' is 41-25 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 224.4 points. The 'over' is also 33-19 with the Suns coming off a win this season with that situation producing an average total of 224.1 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Nuggets simply couldn't get back up for Game 4 after staging an upset win in Game 3. Here, I look for a return to this series' high-scoring ways as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Blazers coming off an 'under' result this season with those games totaling an average of 235.8 points. We've also seen the 'over' go 17-6 with the Blazers playing on the road off a double-digit win over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 235.1 points. On the flip side, the 'over' has gone 20-9 with the Nuggets coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 229.5 points. With Denver coming off a loss of any kind this season, the 'over' has gone 18-8 with an average total of 228.1 points scored. I look for both teams to come out aggressively in this pivotal Game 5 as they lean on their strengths with the Blazers averaging 116.9 points per game on the road and the Nuggets putting up 117.2 points per game here at home and noting that the 'over' has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'over' cash in the first three meetings in this series but I look for a reversal of that trend on Monday night. After consecutive subpar defensive efforts, the Grizzlies need to step up at that end of the floor here in Game 4. They're certainly capable of doing so, having allowed 110.5 points per game on 45.6% shooting here at home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip. Note that Memphis has allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss at home over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 13-4 along the way. The 'under' is also 13-2 with the Grizzlies playing at home in just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging a total of 216.7 points. Likewise, the Jazz have posted a 26-41 o/u record when playing their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.4 points on average. Donovan Mitchell's return has essentially turned the tide for the Jazz in this series. In what is basically a must-win game for the Grizzlies, look for them to do a better job of limiting his opportunities. Offensively, Memphis is in tough as it has now shot 45% or worse from the field in six of its last seven contests, perhaps showing a bit of a fatigue after going all-out down the stretch to earn a playoff spot. Note that the Grizzlies have scored over 110 points in four straight games entering Monday's contest, their longest such streak since April 14th to 19th. In their next game after that previous four-game streak they managed only 105 points and produced an 'under' result against the Clippers. Take the under (10*).

NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday.

This has been a low-scoring series to this point with the 'under' cashing in two of three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however, as the Suns look to punch back at the Lakers off consecutive losses. Note that while Phoenix is an excellent defensive team, it's road games have still averaged nearly 225 total points this season. Likewise, the Lakers rate as one of the league's best defensive squads, but games here at Staples Center have still reached an average total of nearly 219 points. Two regular season meetings between these two teams here totaled 218 and 233 points. The fact that there was two days off between Games 3 and 4 is key for the Suns as they need Chris Paul's shoulder to heal up as he's clearly been off in the last couple of games. He's obviously still not going to be at 100% but I do expect him to contribute more than he did in the last couple of games and it's certainly worth noting that despite his struggles, Game 3 still went 'over' the total and Game 4 fell short by just a handful of points. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 225 points. The 'over' is also 40-26 with the Suns playing consecutive road games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 227.1 points. There are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers but in virtually all of those situations, the average total has gone 'over' the relatively low number we're working with today. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Atlanta at 1:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Knicks haven't had any answers for Hawks superstar Trae Young in this series and that's not likely to change overnight. However, New York can help its own cause by knocking down some shots and that's precisely what I expect to see happen on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. The tandem of Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett was phenomenal during the regular season but they've faded into the wallpaper in this series, most recently combining to shoot 4-for-24 from the field in Game 3. I expect both players to be much better on Sunday afternoon. The Hawks are an underrated defensive team but they've still given up just shy of 109 points per game at home this season. They've held the Knicks to 38.3% and 36.2% shooting over the last two games but that's by no means a sustainable trend. Note that the last time they held the opposition to under 40% shooting in consecutive games, their next game went 'over' the total (that was Game 1 of this series, which reached 212 total points). The only other time they held consecutive opponents under 40% shooting this season, their next game totaled a whopping 238 points at home against the lowly Pistons back on January 20th. Take the over (10*).

NBA First Round Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Saturday.

We saw an incredibly high-scoring game between these two teams last time out as Utah prevailed by a 141-129 score (we won with the Jazz in that game). Now the scene shifts to Memphis for Game 3, where we've seen a much different style of basketball played this season. Memphis will certainly be looking to exact a little revenge here, and I expect it to do it at the defensive end of the floor. The 'under' has gone 23-14 in Grizzlies home games this season with an average total of 220 points. The Grizzlies actually average 3.6 points per game below their season scoring average here at home. We can expect both teams to play some defense on Saturday - something we just didn't see in Game 2 as both teams shot better than 54% from the field. Note that prior to that game, the Jazz had held six straight and nine of their last 10 opponents to 46.6% or worse shooting. Memphis had held eight of its last nine opponents to 44.7% or worse shooting. It's also easy to forget that Game 1 of this series totaled just 221 points. Yes, the Jazz welcomed back Donovan Mitchell in Game 2 and he contributed 25 points in 25 minutes but I'm not sure that his presence warrants the very large shift in the total from Game 1 (216.5) to Game 3 (224 at the time of writing). Note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 19-4 with the Grizzlies coming off a game that totaled 245 points or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 219.5 points. The 'under' is also 15-5 with the Grizzlies returning home off a double-digit road loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling just 209.4 points. Also note that a rested Jazz squad has generally been a good thing for 'under' bettors, with the 'under' going 41-25 the last 66 times Utah has played for just the second time in five days, as is the case here, with those games totaling 215.1 points on average over the last three seasons. Finally, I'll point out that four of the last five meetings between these two teams here in Memphis have gone 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Miami at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series (but missed with Miami) on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to South Beach for Thursday's Game 3 matchup. With two days off in between games and plenty of familiarity between these two squads (this will be their sixth meeting this season and 12th going back to the bubble in Orlando last year, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair here. The Heat are going to have to step up their game defensively because their offense just isn't there right now. Something doesn't seem right with Jimmy Butler as he's contributed just 27 points on 8-of-32 shooting in the first two games of this series. While he'll undoubtedly bounce back with a strong performance here on Thursday, I'm not sure it will be enough to spark a true offensive outburst from the Heat. It seems as if Miami has become overly reliant on the three-ball, with minimal success. Note that the Heat have proven to be a strong defensive team at home this season, allowing 108.6 points per game on 45.7% shooting. They've given up just 107.4 points per game when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.5 points. While the 'over' has gone 22-10 the last 32 times the Heat have come off a double-digit loss, those games have averaged a total of 221.9 points - still well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. After consecutive games totaling 215 points or more, the Heat have seen an average final score totaling just 216.9 points over the last three seasons, with a considerable sample size of 30 games. The Bucks are certainly a high-flying offensive team, but as we saw in the opener of this series, they're not unstoppable. This is a virtual must-win for the Heat and I expect them to at the very least offer some resistance. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The 76ers turned in a rather sleepy defensive performance in the opener of this series on Sunday - perhaps not all that surprising given it was an early start against a Wizards squad they've taken care of with relative ease this season. All told, they allowed the Wiz to shoot better than 55% from the field in the series-opener, something I look for the Sixers to make amends for on Wednesday night. On the flip side, Washington pretty much gave Philadelphia whatever it wanted offensively in that contest and ultimately paid the price in a losing effort. While the Wizards are thought of as a defensive doormat, they've actually proven capable of stepping up at times over the course of the season. Prior to Sunday's game, Washington had held four straight opponents to 46.4% or worse shooting. Even on Sunday, it did hold Philadelphia below 50% shooting. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-18 with the 76ers coming in well-rested playing four games or less in the last 10 days over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 221.4 points. The 'under' is also 34-15 the last 49 times the 76ers have come off a game that totaled 235 points or more, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mavs did an excellent job of holding down the Clippers in Game 1 of this series on Saturday as they secured a 113-103 victory, just staying a shade 'under' the total. I certainly expect the Clippers to respond with a much better shooting effort here on Tuesday after being held to 11-of-40 shooting from beyond the arc in Game 1. Note that the Clips have averaged 120.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 228.4 total points. We've also seen an average total of 229.3 points with the Clips at home revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last two seasons. Note that these two teams squared off in last year's playoffs in the bubble in Orlando. In that series, which L.A. won 4-2, the Clips came up big offensively off a loss, scoring 130 and 154 points with those two contests totaling 252 and 265 points. Expect another high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*).

NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw an incredibly low-scoring game (by today's NBA standards) in the opener of this series on Sunday as the Suns cruised to a 99-90 victory. I certainly expect to see the Lakers punch back on Tuesday night but Phoenix isn't going to roll over and has proven to be an incredibly efficient offensive team here at home this season, averaging 116.1 points per game on better than 49% shooting. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Suns coming off two or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 225.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 13-4 with the Suns coming off four or more straight victories over the last two seasons with an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. As for the Lakers, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 49-26 clip the last 75 times they've played on the road off a loss against a division opponent. Look for an answer from Lebron and A.D. off an off day on Sunday but the Suns should do their part to help this one 'over' the total as well. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Saturday as the two teams simply didn't knock down their shots in a rather sloppy contest. I'm expecting a sharper offensive effort from both squads here. Watching that game, it was truly incredible how many easy baskets were missed from the 4-6 foot range. When the dust settled, the Bucks shot 43.7% from the field while the Heat checked in at a dreadful 36.4%. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-7 with the Bucks coming off a home win this season with those contests totaling an average of 241.8 points. That's in addition to the fact that the 'over' is 11-3 with the Bucks coming off a straight-up victory but ATS loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing a whopping 244.6 total points on average. Take the over (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Milwaukee at 2:05 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams just met last Saturday with Milwaukee cruising to a 122-108 victory. That game stayed 'under' the total but this time around we're dealing with a considerably lower number. I believe it will prove too low. The Bucks can pretty much put up 120 points per game here at home in their sleep. They check in ranked seventh in the league in floor percentage here at home and third in possessions per game. Milwaukee also ranks third in the NBA in total rebounding percentage here at home - a big advantage over a Heat squad that ranks 19th in rebound rate on the road - which should allow it to push the pace here. I do believe Miami can afford itself some extra scoring opportunities in transition here as well given it ranks seventh in the league in steals per defensive play on the road and Milwaukee sits in the bottom half of the league in turnovers per possession at home. The 'under' cashed in three of five games in last year's playoff series although I would take that with a grain of salt as those contests were played in unique circumstances in the bubble in Orlando. While the 'under' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings this year - all three games actually went 'over' the number we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take the over (10*).

NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

We've seen the defense ramp up during the NBA Play-In Tournament and I expect that to continue on Friday night as the Grizzlies face the Warriors for the fourth time this season - this time with a playoff spot hanging in the balance. All three previous matchups have gone 'under' the total. In fact, eight of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three season have gone 'under'. You would be hard-pressed to find two teams more locked in defensively right now. The Grizzlies have held six of their last seven opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse. On the flip side, however, Memphis has shot 44.4% or worse from the field itself in each of its last three contests. The Warriors have been even better than the Grizzlies defensively, holding 10 of their last 11 opponents to 46.5% shooting or worse. Memphis has seen the 'under' cash in seven of its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is an incredible 13-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 208.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 the last eight times the Warriors have come off a road loss by three points or less, as is the case here, with those contests reaching an average total of just 213.1 points. With everything to play for on Friday night, I'm expecting a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Washington at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

Most are expecting a track meet between these two teams on Thursday night and while that could very well turn out to be the case, I still believe the lofty total will prove too high. Keep in mind, the Wizards actually check into this one off four consecutive 'under' results. Scott Brooks actually has his team playing a bit of defense right now as they've held their last two opponents to worse than 40% shooting from the field. Going back further, six of their last seven opponents have shot 48.1% or worse from the field. Meanwhile, the Pacers check in having shot better than 50% in three straight games - their longest such streak of the season. The last time they accomplished that feat was back in late December and their next game cruised 'under' the total, reaching just 218 points. Lost in the Pacers tremendous offensive production has been their defensive play as they check in having held five of their last seven opponents to 45.7% or worse shooting. This has certainly been a high-scoring series with the 'over' cashing in all three previous meetings this season. However, just as we've seen with the 'under' cashing in three of four 'play-in' games so far, things tend to get a little tighter as the stakes get higher. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in this series this season but as is often the case, I don't think it's as simple as riding that trend to victory again here on Wednesday. These two teams obviously have a lot to play for here as the loser will be done for the season while the winner will advance to face the winner of the late game between the Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio limps into this contest having lost 10 of its last 12 games overall but I think legendary head coach Gregg Popovich will draw a strong defensive effort out of his down-trodden bunch here. Keep in mind, the Spurs have given up an average of just 106.6 points per game when revenging a loss against an opponent by 20 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of 218.7 points, well south of tonight's posted total. The Spurs might be catching the Grizzlies at the right time as Memphis' offense lagged a bit down the stretch, held to 111 points or less in nine of its final 13 games. For whatever reason, the Grizzlies were a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road during the regular season, averaging just 110 points per game here in Memphis, with the 'under' cashing at a 22-14 clip. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-7 in Grizzlies games where the total has been set between 220 and 229.5 this season. The 'under' is also an incredible 12-1 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have been well-rested playing only their second game in the last five days, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of 217.1 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Lakers turned in an energetic performance yesterday in Indiana, welcoming back both Lebron James and Anthony Davis and pouring in 122 points in a seven-point victory over the Pacers. We missed with the 'under' in that contest but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Sunday. The Pelicans season essentially ended when they lost Zion Williamson to injury and they check into this one having lost three games in a row, also having shot 46.9% or worse from the field in seven consecutive games. In addition to Zion's absence, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball have missed time as well and are unlikely to play in Sunday's regular season finale. Off consecutive subpar defensive efforts against the Rockets and Pacers, I look for the Lakers to make a concerted effort to clamp down on the Pelicans offense here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is 22-12 with the Lakers on the road this season, where they've held opponents to 45.9% shooting. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Hawks in their most recent game - a blowout victory over the Magic on Thursday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as Atlanta looks to clamp down on the undermanned, but surging Rockets, and close out the regular season on a positive note. Atlanta is locked in defensively right now, having held its last two opponents to 44.6% and 38.3% shooting. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team at home all season, in fact, holding the opposition to 45.4% shooting. Here, I don't see much reason for Atlanta to really push the pace, especially against a Rockets squad that has thrived offensively in that sort of environment lately, scoring 120+ points in three consecutive games. In fact, Houston, checks in riding a five-game ATS winning streak, culminating with an outright upset win over the Clippers at home on Friday. Kelly Olynyk has led the charge lately but I look for the Hawks interior defense to put the clamps on him here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the 'under' in Friday's matchup between these two teams. I actually feel we deserved a better fate in that one as the 76ers did exactly what we expected them to do, holding the Magic to under 40% shooting. Unfortunately, Philadelphia went off offensively in that one and ultimately sent the game just a bucket over the total. Here, we're likely to see a number of Philadelphia's stars sit out but I still expect the Sixers to go hard defensively and keep a weak Magic offense at bay. This is a Doc Rivers-coached team after all. Orlando has been woeful offensively on the road, averaging 102.2 points per game on a miserable 42.2% shooting this season. We have seen the Magic continue to play hard defensively, however, holding five straight opponents to under 49% shooting entering this contest. Despite their 18-16 o/u record away from home, they've actually held the opposition to a respectable 46.1% in the visitors role this season. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Indiana at 1:10 pm et on Saturday.

We haven't seen enough of an adjustment made to Pacers totals as they've now seen three of their last six games total 213 points or less. Indiana is injury-ravaged at the moment with lots of question marks around who will be able to play on Saturday afternoon. Regardless, I'm not anticipating a peak performance from the Pacers offense here against a good Lakers defense coming off a rather poor showing against the lowly Rockets last time out. Note that when these two teams last met back in early March, when the Lakers had a healthy Lebron James, we saw just 205 total points in a arrow Los Angeles victory. The Lakers might get some help today with Lebron James, Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder all potentially returning to the floor, but again, I'm not expecting a truly cohesive performance from a team that has been highly-inconsistent down the stretch. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'under' in the 76ers 106-94 loss in Miami last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Philadelphia looks to take another step toward locking up the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers sit one game ahead of the Nets for top spot in the East with just this two-game home set against the lowly Magic remaining. I look for Philadelphia to clamp down defensively in this game after it allowed Miami to get off to a red hot start and cruise, shooting better than 50% from the field last night. Meanwhile, the 76ers haven't shot better than 48.8% from the field since May 5th in Houston. Note that Philadelphia held Orlando to just 92 points in its first meeting this season back on December 31st. That game totaled just 208 points and the Magic obviously had a lot more scoring punch on their roster at the time. Here, we find the Magic having shot 41.8% or worse from the field in five straight games and riding a three-game 'under' streak following last night's drubbing in Atlanta (we won with the Hawks in that game). Take the under (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat have inexplicably seen the 'over' cash in each of their last 10 games but I believe that streak will be put in jeopardy as they host the defensive-minded 76ers on Thursday night. The first two meetings in this series this season were both high-scoring games but those came back in the second week of January. The 76ers are in excellent defensive form right now, having allowed just 104.6 points per game on 44% shooting over their last five contests. Note that they've posted a 13-22 o/u record away from home this season. The Heat enter this game having shot better than 50% in each of their last three games and a blazing 57.3% and 59.3% in sweeping consecutive games in Boston in their last two contests. That's certainly not a sustainable trend, noting that the Heat average 107.9 points per game on 46.7% shooting this season. In the long-term picture, the 'under' has gone 97-59 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

It's been defense-optional for the Nets much of the season under the guidance of first-year head coach Steve Nash, particularly on the road where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 47% from the field. Note that opponents are averaging 117 points per game with an average total of 239.2 points with the Nets playing as a road favorite this season. The 'over' has cashed at a 16-7 clip in that situation. On the flip side, the Bulls haven't seen the 'over' cash since April 26th against the Heat. They're healthy though, and I believe they have the personnel to give the Nets a run in what has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair on Tuesdaynight. Even Bulls sophomore Coby White has been contributing consistently at the offensive end of the floor lately, scoring 21 points or more in three of the last four games. With Zach LaVine back and seemingly getting stronger with each passing game (he scored 30 points in Sunday's win in Detroit), there's reason to believe the Bulls can put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Nets scored 125 points despite just 66 field goal attempts in Saturday's 125-119 win in Denver. That result snapped a four-game 'under' streak for Brooklyn, although it's worth noting that two of those four 'under' results would have gone 'over' the number we're dealing with here tonight. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 222 points back on April 4th but the Nets were without Kevin Durant for that contest and Kyrie Irving made good on just 12 field goal attempts for 24 points. Here, I'll note that the Nets are averaging 120.8 points per game with an average total of 239.5 points when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has still cashed in five of the last eight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*).

NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Pelicans continue to battle to earn their way into the play-in tournament but off a big come-from-behind win in Charlotte last night I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here. Without Zion in the lineup, the Pelicans have been forced to change their identity a little bit and come in off consecutive stellar defensive efforts in his absence. In fact, the 'under' is now 8-1 in the Pelicans last nine games overall. The fact that New Orleans scored 118 and 144 points in two previous wins over the Grizzlies this season should certainly peak Memphis' interest heading into this one. Like New Orleans, Memphis also ramped up its defensive play last time out, holding Toronto to under 39% shooting in a 10-point victory. That was the second time in their last six games the Grizzlies held an opponent to fewer than 100 points - a true accomplishment in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have found themselves in a situation looking for revenge for a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.4 points. While the Pelicans have more serious injury concerns with Zion and Brandon Ingram sidelined, the Grizzlies have issues of their own with underrated scorer Grayson Allen ruled out for Monday's game. It's certainly worth noting that Grizzlies super-soph Ja Morant has been slumping a bit lately as well, scoring 12 points or less in four of his last seven games. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago in Dallas as the Mavs were in a clear letdown spot one night after outlasting Brooklyn in a nationally-televised matchup. Even with that situation, and the fact that Dallas shot worse than 50% and didn't play at a particularly fast pace against an awful Cavs defense, it still managed to score 110 points. Meanwhile, the Cavs still contributed enough offense to get the final score to 200 points despite turning in two sub-20-point quarters and shooting worse than 39% from the field. While I'm certainly not high on the Cavs offense with Darius Garland sidelined, I do think they can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total on Sunday night. After holding three straight opponents to 46.4% shooting or worse, some regression should be in order for the Dallas defense in this spot. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Mavs coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 230.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 29-17 with the Cavs coming off at least three straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 223.0 points. The Cavs are in dire straights defensively right now, having allowed six of their last seven opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and and 12 of their last 13 opponents to shoot 48.3% or better. Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*).

NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

The Jazz are coming off a low-scoring come-from-behind victory over the Raptors on Saturday as they continue to sputter without Donovan Mitchell and now Mike Conley as well. With that being said, I see this as a smash spot for Utah at home against a Spurs squad playing its second of back-to-back games after an overtime loss at home against the 76ers last night. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 after San Antonio posts three ATS wins in its last four games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 233.8 points. The 'over' is also 22-9 with the Spurs playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of 231.2 points. Meanwhile, Utah averages an impressive 121.9 points per contest when playing at home off a home win this season. Even when factoring in Mitchell and Conley's absences we can still project the Jazz to have a big night offensively against a Spurs squad that has allowed two of its last four opponents to shoot 50.6% or better from the field. It is worth noting that San Antonio has actually been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home, averaging 113.5 points per game on 46.7% shooting in the visitors role. The first meeting between these two teams this season produced 239 total points and the 'over' has cashed in five of the last eight meetings overall. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Blazers are off to a perfect 4-0 start to their current road trip, scoring 133, 130, 128 and 129 points in the process. I like the Hawks chances of at least slowing them down here in Atlanta on Monday, noting that Atlanta has allowed 96, 103, 104 and 97 points over its last four home games and has allowed just three opponents to shoot 49% or better going all the way back to April 1st. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has cashed at a 13-5 clip with the Hawks listed as home favorite this season, with those games totaling an average of just 217.2 points. While the Blazers have been rolling offensively, it's important to give some credit to their defensive play as well. They've held four of their last five opponents to 46.5% or worse shooting from the field. I'm not entirely sure they'll be looking for a track meet here against a rested Hawks squad, noting that Portland will be playing its fifth game in the last seven nights, in five different cities. At the same time, Atlanta will want to take Portland out of its own element and perhaps turn things one into more of a physical affair. The 'under' is 17-13 in Hawks home games this season and I'll call for that trend to continue here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

This is the first meeting this season between these two teams and I'm just not sure the betting marketplace has an accurate handle on where to set this total. The Magic are coming off four straight 'over' results - matching their longest such streak of the season. In fact, the 'over' is 8-1 in their last nine contests but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. The Magic are of course simply playing out the string after dealing away the core of their roster prior to the trade deadline. The cupboard is by no means bare but with Michael Carter-Williams still sidelined and Terrence Ross likely to miss at least one more game as well (they're not interested in rushing anyone back from injury at this point) big offensive showings aren't going to be commonplace down the stretch. Keep in mind, Orlando averages just 102.7 points per game on 42.5% shooting on the road this season and runs into a Memphis squad that should be in a foul mood here coming off consecutive losses, both in blowout fashion. Interestingly, the Grizzlies have been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road, averaging 109.8 points per game on 45% shooting here at home this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at an 18-12 clip with the Grizz playing in Memphis. With Wednesday's loss to the Blazers going 'over' the total - the second consecutive 'over' result for Memphis here at home - it's worth noting we've only seen three straight Grizzlies home games go 'over' the total on one other occasion this season, that coming in a stretch of four consecutive 'over' results in Memphis back in February. The Grizzlies have posted a 12-25 o/u mark when coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 220.7 points. Better still, the 'under' is 12-3 the last 15 times Memphis has come off a double-digit home loss, with that situation producing an average total of just 218.2 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday.

I'll keep my analysis brief with this being a late addition to Thursday's card. The Pelicans and Thunder check in top two in the league in possessions per game over their last three games and I'm certainly expecting another up-tempo affair here tonight. The Pelicans should be in a foul mood off last night's two-point setback in Denver while Oklahoma City finally snapped its long losing streak with a victory in Boston two nights ago and will look to build off of that here. The pace alone should help get this one into the 230's after the first two meetings (with both teams featuring considerably different personnel than we'll see tonight) stayed to 221 points or less. Note that the 'over' has gone 25-6 when the Pelicans come off consecutive games scoring 110 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 235.6 points. We've also seen the 'over' cash at a 20-8 clip with the Pelicans coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 234.4 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

This is a very low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Suns don't get enough credit for their defense. They check in allowing just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting this season but will need to refocus after a real flat performance in Brooklyn yesterday, allowing 128 points in a lopsided defeat. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-9 with the Suns coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, over the last two seasons. Perhaps yesterday's lull was to be expected as they simply couldn't ratchet up the intensity following a two-day layoff which came on the heels of three games in four nights on the road against the Bucks, 76ers and Celtics. I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that Phoenix has allowed just 106.6 points per game following an ATS loss this season. Despite its defensive exploits, New York has seen the 'over' cash in six of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, it has held five of seven opponents to fewer than 110 points over that stretch, which is an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The Knicks check in allowing 105.6 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Knicks have come off an outright win as an underdog, as is the case here as they were inexplicably +1 against the Raptors on Saturday. That situation has produced just 109.4 total points on average over the last two seasons. With the Suns eager to get on a plane to head home at the end of a tough five-game road trip and the Knicks rested and ready playing their fifth game of a six-game homestand following a day off on Sunday, I'm not anticipating any sort of track meet on Monday night. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 3:40 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in this matchup on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Saturday's rematch in Milwaukee. There are obviously injury concerns for the 76ers after Joel Embiid was forced to leave Thursday's game and Ben Simmons missed it entirely due to an illness he's been battling over the last week. That game started as a track meet but did slow down in the second half with just 104 points scored. We saw some shooting anomalies in that one as Shake Milton was 8-of-14 for 20 points for the 76ers while Bobby Portis came off the bench to shoot 9-of-11 for 23 points for the Bucks. Philadelphia allowed Milwaukee to shoot north of 55% from the field in that game but I expect it to punch back here on Saturday, noting that it has seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 the last three times it has allowed opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Note that the 76ers have held opponents to 45.8% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11 clip. The 'over' has cashed in the Bucks last three games, their longest such streak since mid-March. I look for a reversal of that trend here noting that the 76ers have allowed just 107.7 points per game after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 221.8 points. Also note that Philadelphia averages just 107.0 points per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 219.5 points. Look for today's total to prove too high. Take the under (10*).

NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Grizzlies got off to a blazing start against the Nuggets two nights ago but when Denver decided to play a little defense, Memphis wilted in the fourth quarter, scoring just 21 points and allowing the Nuggets to force overtime in an eventual loss for the Grizz. Here's where Memphis' schedule gets really tough as it plays its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities and coming off a game played at altitude in Denver. I don't think we'll see all of those shots dropping for the Grizz the way they did two nights ago. Note that the 'under' has gone 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games after allowing 120 points or more in their last game with those contests totaling an average of 219.9 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers are back home after a one-point victory over the Dame-less Blazers last night in Portland. Even with Kawhi Leonard sidelined, they're still an elite defensive team and they're absolutely locked in at that end of the floor right now, having held five straight opponents to 45.8% or worse shooting. Of course, the Clips could be catching the Grizzlies at the right time with both Jonas Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks questionable to play on Wednesday night. Even if they do play, I still expect this one to stay 'under' the total, just as five of the last nine meetings in this series have, including the most recent one - a 119-99 Clippers victory in Memphis back on February 26th. Take the under (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Bucks didn't give Trae Young any good looks in Thursday's 120-109 Hawks loss here at home and as a result he shot 3-of-17 from the field, ultimately keeping us from cashing our 'over' ticket by a bucket. Here, I look for Young to fare much better as we should be in for a track meet between the Pacers and Hawks. Indiana hoisted up 105 field goal attempts in an eight-point loss in Utah on Friday, shooting a miserable 39% from the field. I'm willing to chalk that poor shooting up to a tough scheduling spot with a rare early weekday game in altitude, no less. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Pacers bounce back, noting that they average 115.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting on the road this season. The 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Hawks have played at home off a double-digit home loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 238.3 points. The Hawks have also posted a 12-3 o/u record when revenging a double-digit home loss against an opponent (Indiana defeated Atlanta 121-113 here in February) with that spot averaging a total of 237.4 points. With that Hawks shooting 47.6% or worse in three straight games, they'll be eager to get back on track offensively and should be afforded that opportunity against a Pacers squad playing their third straight game on the road and fourth game in the last six days, in four different cities. Take the over (10*).