Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

These two teams combined to score 242 points in the front half of this two-game set in Portland on Saturday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring result, however, with both teams getting off just 83 field goal attempts. Both the Wolves and Blazers shot the lights out in that contest but I expect to see some adjustments made and better defense played in Monday's rematch. Keep in mind, these two teams met four times last season and we didn't see the 'over' hit in consecutive meetings on any occasion. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-10 with the Wolves coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and has cashed three out of four times it has followed four consecutive games shooting 47% or better from the field over the same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-10 with the Blazers playing at home with a total of 230 points or higher over the last three seasons and 5-1 when coming off a win by six points or less this season. We've seen Portland post consecutive 'over' results on only three previous occasions this season and all three times its next contest stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

These two teams enter Monday's game trending in opposite directions with the Pacers having lost three games in a row both SU and ATS and the Warriors coming off consecutive victories and five wins in their last six contests, also both SU and ATS. Both teams come off 'under' results last time out, and we're starting to see this astronomical total come down a bit. I don't believe the move is warranted. The Pacers check in having knocked down 40+ field goals in four straight games. They're certainly getting their opportunities, hoisting up 94, 105, 100, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over their last five games. The problem is, their defense has been non-existent, allowing six of their last seven opponents to knock down 42 or more field goals. Teams are bullying them around and that's not likely to change against the red hot Warriors on Monday. Golden State is rolling right now, making good on 42+ field goals in six consecutive games. On the flip side, it hasn't shown much interest in slowing down the opposition, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. Expect a track meet on Monday in San Francisco. Take the over (8*).

Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

With both of these teams playing at a reasonably slow pace lately and neither shooting particularly well, I believe this total will prove too high on Wednesday. Atlanta has gotten off just 82, 88 and 74 field goal attempts over its last three contests, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in all three. The good news is, the Hawks have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities as well, holding nine of their last 10 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's a similar story for Orlando. It has gotten off 80 or fewer FG attempts in three straight games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time the Magic knocked down 40 or more field goals. Meanwhile, they've held three straight opponents to 82 or fewer FG attempts, including the red hot Nets in a 109-102 loss on Monday. Brooklyn actually shot the lights out in that contest (44 made field goals) yet still scored 'only' 109 points in a game that stayed comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Portland at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

I understand the logic behind this total shifting downward but that doesn't mean I agree with it. The Clippers haven't been the same dominant force defensively this season, and certainly not of late as two of their last three opponents have gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts with three of their last four foes knocking down 40+ field goals. In fact, 12 of Los Angeles' last 14 opponents have scored 100+ points. The Blazers have been held to 97 points or less in two of their last three games but should rebound at home, where they're averaging north of 114 points per game on 40 made field goals per contest. Defensively, Portland has allowed eight consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In general, the Blazers play at a faster pace here at the Moda Center, averaging 85 FG attempts per game compared to their season average of 83 while yielding 88 FG attempts per contest to opponents compared to their season average of 86. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

This is the second instalment of a two-game set between these two teams in Miami after the Heat prevailed by a 113-105 score on Wednesday. That 'over' result has led to an adjustment to the total here, and I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. Washington continues to defend well, holding three straight and 11 of its 18 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals this season. It has also been efficient offensively for the most part, although it needed to shoot better than 47% from the field to get to 42 made field goals and only 105 points in this same matchup two nights ago. The Wiz are averaging only 87 field goal attempts per game on the road this season while the Heat have held the opposition to 86 FG attempts per contest here at home. Miami has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games including 35 and 39 in two games against Washington (the first of which was aided by overtime). It matched a season-high with 93 FG attempts in regulation time last time out yet still scored 'only' 113 points on 39 made field goals. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

I like the set-up for this play as the first meeting between these two teams was lower-scoring than expected and the Grizzlies have actually seen the 'under' cash in three of their last five games overall, despite playing at a reasonably fast pace. Memphis has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games entering Friday's contest. It has also made good on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games heading in, but comes off a loss to the Kings last time out. New Orleans has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing three of its last four opponents to knock down 41+ field goals. However, its offense has more than made up for it, making good on 42+ field goals in six straight contests and 49 and 47 over its last two games. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday.

Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While both of these teams have shot with incredible efficiency lately, the pace just hasn't been there to dictate a posted total at this level. Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and hasn't reached 90 since back on November 4th in Washington (in a game that still totalled only 214 points). Meanwhile, the undermanned 76ers have hoisted up 79 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games and haven't attempted more than 83 field goals in any of their last six contests. While both sides have allowed their opponents' pace to tick up a little higher than they'd like in recent games, that's certainly not their M.O. and not something I expect to see continue. Note that Philadelphia has still limited seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It's a different story for Brooklyn as it has allowed three of its last four foes to knock down 43 or more field goals but it's unlikely the Sixers can take full advantage given their laundry list of current injuries. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday evening. Charlotte continues to roll offensively, despite having little to show for it in the win column. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in five consecutive games and now faces a forgiving Wizards defense that has allowed six of its last eight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Washington has knocked down 41+ field goals in six of its last seven games and Charlotte has certainly proven to be vulnerable defensively with five of its last seven foes making good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (8*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday.

Minnesota's current road trip got off to a sluggish start with a 114-103 loss in Memphis but since then we've seen the T'Wolves put up 129 and 126 points in wins over the Cavs and Magic. They've actually been playing at a considerably slower pace than expected lately but I look for that pace to tick up for this one. Note that Philadelphia has been a little more forgiving defensively than usual in recent contests, yielding 88, 89, 94 and 90 field goal attempts to its last four opponents. That's worth noting as they had limited nine of their first 11 opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts this season. In that vein, the T'Wolves have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 47, 44, 40 and 42 field goals. Each of their last five opponents have hoisted up 88 or more field goal attempts. Despite playing on the second of back-to-back nights, the 76ers would appear poised to take advantage of their scoring opportunities in this matchup, noting they scored 120 and 133 points in two meetings with Minnesota last season and enter this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in three consecutive games - their longest such streak of the season to date. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

I'm not sure any team has impressed me more offensively than the Thunder this season. After cashing with the 'over' in their most recent game - a 121-120 win in Washington two nights ago - I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five straight games heading into this contest. While they only managed to get off 81 field goal attempts in that win over the Wizards, they've still hoisted up 93+ field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have sputtered a bit offensively of late but should be able to get on track here, noting that Oklahoma City has been very forgiving defensively, allowing four of its last five opponents to make good on 44+ field goals. Five of the Thunder's last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts while the Grizzlies have eclipsed that number of attempts in six of their last seven contests so the opportunities should be there for the home side. Memphis has been all over the place defensively but I will note that three of its last six opponents have attempted more than 90 field goals - that after only three of its first nine foes got into the 90+ range. Take the over (8*).

Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm anticipating a track meet between the Thunder and Wizards on Wednesday. Oklahoma City is running as free-flowing of an offense as you'll find in the NBA right now, hoisting up 102, 111, 93, 88 and 98 field goal attempts over its last five games. Better still, the Thunder have knocked down 41, 50, 52, 55 and 47 field goals over that stretch. There's little reason to expect Washington to offer much resistance as five of its last six opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts. While the Wizards haven't been pushing the pace to the same level as the Thunder, they can certainly get out and run and take advantage of the opportunities they're afforded. In that regard, they should have plenty here as the Thunder have allowed four of their last five opponents to get off 93+ FG attempts with three of their last four opponents knocking down 46+ field goals. The Wiz have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five contests. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday.

This game has 'track meet' written all over it as the Knicks head to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz on Tuesday night, with both teams coming off losses. New York has gotten off a whopping 90+ field goal attempts in 10 of its 13 games this season while Utah has done the same in 10 of its last 14 contests. The problem is neither team has offered much resistance to the opposition defensively. New York has been lit up for more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Each of Utah's last seven opponents have knocked down 40+ field goals. We saw both teams shoot poorly in last season's two meetings in this series and as a result both games stayed 'under' the total. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*).

Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'under' in the Cavs most recent game on Friday night against the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they return home to host the T'Wolves. Minnesota is having a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. It has hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Cleveland is obviously a stingy defensive squad, yielding 83 or fewer FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last five games. Each of the Cavs last six opponents have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals. Minnesota has quietly been limiting its opponents' pace as well, permitting fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Cavs offense but this isn't an ideal spot, returning home on just one day of rest off a five-game road trip. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday but that was a 'bad beat' by very definition as the two teams needed overtime to get 'over' the total. Not much of an adjustment has been made to the total in advance of Saturday's rematch so I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again. Note that Charlotte continues to struggle offensively, making good on just 36, 33, 32, 42, 34 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last six games. In the high-water mark game over that stretch, it still scored 'only' 100 points in a loss against the Wizards. On the flip side, due to a number of key injuries, the Hornets have had to work to slow their opponents' pace in order to stay competitive and that has worked to a certain extent. They've limited six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. Miami shot just 37-of-83 in the first four quarters on Thursday. Of course, the Heat boast one of the best defenses in the league, limiting each of their last six opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down more than 40 field goals and that was Sacramento in a game where it scored 'only' 107 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Cavs are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs, shooting north of 50% in both of those contests but also allowing the opposition to eclipse the 50% shooting mark. The pace certainly didn't dictate those totals of 236 and 247 points, however, with the Cavs getting off 83 and 86 field goal attempts while holding their opponents to just 79 and 76. Noting that Cleveland has held each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts and 40 or fewer made field goals, I look for the Cavs to lean on their defense to try to bring an end to their first losing streak of the season here. Golden State has limited four of its last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. The outlier came last time out - a game in which the Warriors held Sacramento to just 37 made field goals on 91 attempts (that game stayed 'under' the total). On the flip side, the Warriors opened the campaign by knocking down 41+ field goals in six straight games. Since then, they've eclipsed the 40 field goal mark only twice in five games. Also note that they've gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games. Finally, I'll point to the fact that last year's two meetings between these teams totalled just 193 and 178 points. Take the under (8*).

Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

The first matchup between these two teams this season featured a much higher posted total and that game ended up reaching a whopping 254 points, aided by overtime. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Note that the Nets continue to struggle to just get shots off, let alone knock them down. While there was an outlier of a 50 made field goal performance in a rout of Washington on Friday (we still won with the 'under' in that game), they've been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. Now they face a stingy Mavericks defense that has held four straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, Dallas has gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts in six straight contests. It shot the lights out in each of its last two games (50% or better in both contests) yet still scored 'only' 103 and 111 points. Brooklyn has been stingy in its own right, holding its last four opponents to 87, 89, 83 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams playing better defensive basketball than the Suns and 76ers right now. While both of last year's meetings went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing), I believe the number will prove too high this time around. Phoenix wrapped up a split in a two-game home set with the Blazers, putting on a defensive clinic in Saturday's blowout victory, holding Portland to just 30-of-79 shooting. The Suns have now limited five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of nine foes to 38 or fewer made field goals this season. It's a similar story for the Joel Embiid-less 76ers. They held the Knicks to 37-of-80 shooting last time out and have limited each of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. On the flip side, however, they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six of their last nine games overall. After a hot start to the season, the Suns shooting has cooled off as well as they've made good on 41, 36 and 35 field goals over their last three games, three of their four lowest FG totals of the season. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are completely out of sorts offensively right now while both have also shown a pulse defensively of late. I believe this total will prove far too high. Note that Houston has managed to knock down 40+ field goals just once in its last seven games. Minnesota has made good on 41, 40, 37 and 39 field goals in its last four contests. Both teams have limited their opponents tempo to a certain extent lately with Houston holding its last five foes to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. The T'Wolves have yielded fewer than 90 field goal attempts to four straight opponents. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The 'over' has cashed in the Wizards last two games but the pace certainly hasn't dictated those results. Washington got off 81 and 78 field goal attempts in those two contests while limiting the 76ers to 82 and 84. Yet the two games totalled 229 and 232 points. The Wiz quite simply shot the lights out two nights ago but I don't anticipate a repeat performance here. Brooklyn continues to struggle to get shots off, hoisting up 82, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. On a positive note, the Nets have held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts and that should be the focus again here as they come off a loss to the Bulls at home (we won with Chicago in that game). Note that the 'under' is 23-12 in the Nets last 35 games where the total was set between 220 and 229.5 points going back to the start of last season, resulting in an average total of just 222.0 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

While I realize the 'over' is 2-1-1 in each of these teams' last four games, respectively, I don't expect that short-term trend to continue here. Neither team is forcing the issue offensively with the Heat getting off fewer than 90 field goals attempts in seven straight games and the Pacers hoisting up 87 or fewer in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Miami has yielded just 76, 84 and 86 FG attempts to its last three opponents while Indiana has limited five consecutive opponents to 87 FG attempts or fewer. The last two meetings in this series both went 'over' the total but neither would have surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday.

It took a little while but the Lakers have essentially thrown defense out the window and coming off their first victory of the season, I don't expect them to change a thing as they welcome the Pelicans to Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday. Los Angeles' last three opponents have gotten off 92, 99 and 96 field goal attempts, scoring 110, 111 and 110 points over that stretch. I certainly expect the Pelicans to do a better job of taking advantage of an up-tempo affair, noting that they've knocked down 42+ field goals in five of their six games this season. The Lakers, despite their struggles, have made good on 40+ field goals in four of six contests this season. Here, they'll face a New Orleans squad that has yielded 92+ FG attempts to three of its last five opponents. The scoring opportunities will be there tonight, and I'm confident both teams can take full advantage. Take the over (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday

This is the back half of a home-and-home set between the Wizards and 76ers after Philadelphia pulled out a 118-111 victory on Monday. We're working with a higher posted total in this quick rematch and I believe it will prove too high. Note that the pace certainly didn't dictate a high-scoring affair on Monday. Philadelphia quite simply shot the lights out. The 76ers got off just 82 field goal attempts in that game. In fact, the 76ers have hoisted up 82 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and 84 or fewer in all eight contests this season. Similarly, the Wizards got off only 81 field goal attempts on Monday. They've made good on just 33, 36 and 38 field goals over their last three contests and have yet to attempt more than 90 shots in a game this season. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Dallas at 7:40 pm et on Sunday.

It was a true 'bad beat' for 'under' bettors in the Mavericks 117-111 overtime loss to the Thunder last night. Here, I don't think there's any reason to jump off the 'under' as the Mavs stay home to host the Magic. Orlando posted its first win of the season on Friday, snapping a five-game losing streak to open the campaign. Note that the Magic have gotten off more than 86 field goal attempts just once in six games this season. On the flip side, Orlando has done a pretty good job of slowing its opponents, yielding fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of six contests while also holding its last two opponents to just 36 and 33 made field goals. Dallas is of course an elite defensive team, limiting all five of its opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time this season. Last night, the Thunder quite simply shot exceptionally well from the field - the second time a Mavs opponent has done that in its last three games. I don't see that trend continuing here. Note that the Mavs offense doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, hoisting up 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time in four of five contests. Even with overtime last night, the Mavs still knocked down only 38 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 the last 10 times the Mavs have played for the third time in four nights, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 202.5 points. The 'under' is also 12-2 the last 14 times Dallas has played at home after losing two of its last three games, leading to an average total of 205.9 points. Take the under (8*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

Two nights ago, these two teams combined to score 228 points in a double-digit Raptors victory. That outcome had more to do with both teams shooting the lights out than the pace of play. The 76ers have now gotten off 80, 83, 84, 80 and 79 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. They've held four of their five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Raptors. They've hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in all five games while limiting the opposition to just 77, 80, 76, 83 and 79 FG attempts. You get the idea. I'm confident we'll see both teams do a better job of defending the perimeter in particular in Friday's rematch and here we'll note that the 'under' is 32-16 in the 76ers last 48 games when playing on the road off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 196.2 points. Take the under (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams just met two nights ago in Houston with the Rockets pulling off the minor upset in a 114-108 victory, cruising comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold from a totals perspective on Wednesday, however. That was a slow-paced game for Houston - relatively speaking - as it got off just 90 field goal attempts marking a season-low. Yet the Rockets still scored 114 points. I'm confident we'll see the pace tick up here. Houston opponents have been 'filling it up' in the early going this season, making good on 45, 45, 48 and 44 field goals through four games. Monday's game marked the first time this season Utah held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals, but again, it still allowed 114 points. The Jazz have hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 FG attempts over their last three games. Even in their season-opener when they got off just 83 FG attempts, they still scored 123 points in a rout of the Nuggets. In fact, Utah has made good on 42+ field goals in all four games this season. While Monday's contest between these two teams stayed 'under' the total, we're dealing with a lower total this time around and keep in mind, we're just one matchup removed from a game that produced 259 points between these two last March. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the 'under' in the Nets most recent game - a wild, 134-124 loss in Memphis two nights ago. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as I don't believe the pace Brooklyn, or Milwaukee for that matter, has been playing at warrants such a high posted total. Note that Brooklyn has hoisted up just 89, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through its first three games. It quite simply shot the lights out against the Grizzlies on Monday - something I don't expect it to do again here, noting that the Bucks have only played two games, but have appeared to be in midseason form defensively, allowing just 36 made field goals in each contest. Like the Nets, the Bucks haven't exactly been pushing the pace at every opportunity. Albeit with a small sample size, they've gotten off just 84 and 85 FG attempts in their first two games but like the Nets, did shoot the lights out in their most recent contest, that coming against the lowly Rockets. Take the under (8*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pistons first three games this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday in Washington. Both of these teams are coming off losses where the opposition stuffed the boxscore with Detroit allowing 124 points in Indiana and Washington yielding 117 points in Cleveland. The Pistons have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals in all three games despite getting off 90+ attempts in each contest. Noting that Washington has played at a relatively slow pace, hoisting up 91, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through three games this season, there's reason to believe Detroit's scoring opportunities could be even more limited here. After yielding a whopping 103 FG attempts to the Pacers last time out, I'm confident we'll see the Pistons try to 'ugly this one up' in an effort to salvage something from this three-game road trip. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series while the 'under' is also 55-35 in the Pistons last 90 road games following consecutive road losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

Most will be anticipating a track meet between these two star-studded squads on Monday night in Memphis. I'm not so easily convinced. After dropping both meetings last year, and allowing Memphis to dictate the tempo in each of those contests, I look for Brooklyn to make a concerted effort to slow things down on Monday. Note that the Nets have topped out at 89 field goal attempts across their six games to date (including the preseason). They scored 'only' 108 points in that game where they got off 89 FG attempts. Brooklyn checks in having held three of its last four opponents, again including the preseason, to 84 FG attempts or fewer. The Grizzlies have gone from 108 field goal attempts, to 98 to 79 in their three contests this season. On the flip side, they've allowed the opposition to get off 109, 93 and 90 attempts from the field. I do think the Grizzlies are a much better defensive team than they've shown, having allowed their first three opponents to knock down 44, 44 and 45 field goals. I think the slower pace of the Nets will aid them in getting their defense a little more settled in this one, noting that Brooklyn has been limited to 36, 29, 43, 37, 40 and 38 made field goals in its six games going back to the start of the preseason. The high-water mark of 43 came in a game where the Nets still scored just 107 points. In last season's two meetings with the Grizzlies, the Nets got off 82 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday.

I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than expected on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles. The Blazers had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Suns last time out, attempting just 74 field goals in regulation time, yet still managed to prevail in overtime thanks to their solid defensive play. Off to a perfect 2-0 start this season, the Blazers have limited their first two opponents to just 85 and 84 field goal attempts. Now they face an inefficient Lakers offense that has managed to knock down 40 field goals once in two games but needed 93 FG attempts to reach that total. The problem that could be looming for the Blazers is that their own offense has been lukewarm. They've made good on just 39 and 36 field goals through two games and going back to the start of the preseason have topped out at 83 FG attempts. Only one of four meetings between these two teams last season got 'over' 212 points and that was a game where Portland got off a whopping 102 FG attempts. This marks the second-highest posted total in the last five matchups in this series and I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between the Clippers and Lakers at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The Lakers showed very little interest in controlling the tempo of their opponents last season and we saw more of the same in the preseason and again in their season-opener against the Warriors two nights ago. Even with Steve Kerr limiting his starters minutes, the Warriors still got off 99 field goal attempts, making good on 45 of them. In the preseason, the Lakers yielded their opponents 103, 105, 95, 88, 97 and 94 field goal attempts with all but one of those opponents knocking down 41 or more (the exception was a game where they still gave up 119 points against the Suns). I don't anticipate the Clippers coming out of the gates in midseason form defensively as they took part in only three preseason tilts against NBA opposition, allowing 40+ made field goals in each of their last two contests (those games totalled 236 and 241 points). On both occasions where the Clips got off 80+ FG attempts in the preseason, they managed to make good on at least 40. Given the pace the Lakers have yielded to the opposition, the opportunities should certainly be there for this Clips offense on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 14-9 in the Lakers last 23 games following a loss against a division opponent and better still, 8-3 when that loss came by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the over (8*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

I expect this showdown between two NBA title contenders in the Mavs and Suns to have a bit of an old-school feel to it on Wednesday night, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Mavs played only three preseason games, allowing 32, 39 and 41 made field goals with the latter coming in a game where the Jazz got off 91 field goal attempts (and still scored only 101 points). For their part, the Mavs got off 85 or fewer FG attempts in all three games, knocking down 35, 35 and 38 field goals along the way. The Suns opened their preseason slate with a stunning 134-124 loss to the Adelaide 36ers. In three preseason tilts against NBA opposition they limited their foes to 82, 82 and 88 FG attempts with none of those teams knocking down more than 37 field goals. Offensively, the Suns topped out at 39 made field goals and that was in a game where they got off a whopping 105 FG attempts against the Lakers. Expect this 'battle of the titans' to have a defensive flavor on Wednesday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams were 'filling it up' all preseason long and I expect more of the same as they match up in Wednesday's season-opener. The Bulls won three of their four preseason tilts, scoring at least 115 points in all four games. In those contests they knocked down 43, 50, 43 and 50 field goals, without any of those affairs being aided by overtime. Those are staggering results when you consider the pace most teams tend to play at during the preseason. Defensively, there are warts to deal with, however. Note that Chicago allowed its opponents to get off 93, 88, 96 and 92 field goal attempts in those four games. The Heat enjoyed a successful preseason as well, reeling off four straight victories after opening with a loss to the T'Wolves. Like the Bulls, their offense appeared to be in midseason form, making good on 42, 41, 37, 38 and 40 field goals. The pace Miami played at over the course of those five games was notable as it hoisted up 94+ FG attempts on three occasions. This is one of the lowest totals on Wednesday's board and I don't think it's warranted. Take the over (9*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday.

I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Wednesday but it wasn't nearly as straightforward as it should have been with the fourth quarter totalling just 34 points. I expect to see some carry-over from that low-scoring quarter of basketball in Game 4 on Friday night. Credit the Celtics for doing a great job of keeping the explosive Warriors offense in check so far in this series. They've held Golden State to 88, 86 and 78 field goal attempts through the first three games. They've also limited the Warriors to fewer than 40 made field goals in all three contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Boston allowed an opponent to make good on 40+ field goals. On the flip side, note that Golden State has held eight straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Boston did knock down 43 field goals in Game 3 on Wednesday but we've seen positive responses from the Warriors defense in similar situations lately. The last three times they've allowed 40+ made field goals, the Warriors have held opponents to 34, 37 and 30 made field goals in their next game, yielding just 98 points per game in those three contests. The 'under' is 68-48 with Golden State coming off a loss over the last three seasons while the 'under' has gone 32-18 with Boston checking in as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case at the time of writing. We'll continue to go against the adjustments made to the total in this series and call for a lower-scoring contest than expected on Friday. Take the under (10*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series and the 'under' in Game 2. Both results were of the 'rocking chair' variety. Here, we'll continue to follow the zig-zag pattern for another game and back the 'over' as the scene shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Wednesday. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series but still managed to score 108 and 107 points in those contests. Note that they haven't been held to less than 40 field goals in three consecutive games since March. After Golden State got off 88 and 86 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2 I could certainly see the pace ticking up a bit here in Beantown, noting that Boston allowed Miami to attempt 92 and 90 field goals in Games 3 and 4 at home last round. Boston has allowed the opposition to get off 88+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 games overall. Needless to say, the Celtics will be in bounce-back mode offensively after a dismal showing in Game 2. They managed to make good on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts in that contest after shooting a blistering 43-for-85 in Game 1. A return home should help, noting the C's have averaged 40 made field goals per contest at TD Garden this season. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams in Beantown saw neither team shoot particularly well with Golden State knocking down 39 field goals and Boston countering with 36, yet that contest still reached 218 total points. I believe an over-adjustment to the total has been made once again after the low-scoring result in Game 2. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Golden State at 8 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday. The pace certainly wasn't there for a game in the 220's on Thursday. Both teams simply shot exceptionally well from three-point range - Boston in particular as it knocked down a whopping 21 threes. We saw a similar story unfold in Game 2 last round against Miami as the Celtics hit 20+ three-pointers in a 127-point explosion. They never scored more than 103 points again in that seven-game series. Note that Boston allows just 12 made threes per game on the road this season while Golden State gives up an identical 12 threes per contest at home. The Celtics have now held nine of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - an incredible feat in today's NBA. The Warriors allowed Boston to make good on 43 field goals in the opener of this series but hasn't allowed consecutive opponents to hit more than 40 field goals since Game 5 against Memphis in the second round. In Game 6, Golden State held Memphis to just 96 points on 34 made field goals with that game easily staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the 'under' in the Celtics Eastern Conference Finals Game 7 win over the Heat, getting there despite the total being set in the 190's. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I expect this series between the C's and Warriors to play out much differently. The Celtics finally got off 80+ field goal attempts in Game 7 - 85 in fact - after being held under that number in four straight games against Miami. I'm sure the C's realize that they'll need to step up their offensive considerably against the Warriors as opposed to the banged-up Heat they faced last round. Golden State has incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of its last 21 games. While the Warriors last series against Dallas was played at a relatively slow-pace (in stark contrast to their second round series against Memphis), the 'over' still managed to cash in three of five games. Here, we're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw at any point in that series against the Mavs. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 36-22 with the Celtics checking in as an underdog over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 224.7 points. The 'over' is also a long-term 117-80 with Golden State seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent, as is the case here after Boston rolled to a 110-88 win here in San Francisco back in mid-March. Take the over (9*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

Have we transported back in time? That's what it feels like working with a total in the 190's in advance of Game 7 between the Celtics and Heat on Sunday. Of course, what else would you expect as we're talking about two of the league's best defensive teams with a chance to advance to the NBA Finals on the line. We actually won with the 'over', making that play on a considerably higher posted total on Friday. While that game ultimately cruised 'over' the total, we certainly saw glimpses of what is to come in Game 7. The Celtics were held to just 72 field goal attempts in that contest - the fourth straight game in which they were limited to fewer than 80 FG attempts. On the flip side, we finally saw Boston limit Miami's scoring opportunities, holding it to 78 FG attempts after yielding 90+ in each of the previous three games. Miami shot exceptionally well when it matter early and late in Friday's game and both teams got to the free throw line 25+ times. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however, as the officials 'let them play' a little more in this seventh-and-deciding game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 40-24 with Boston seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons while Miami has seen the 'under' go 14-4 when playing at home after losing two of its last three contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (9*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

I think we're seeing a major overreaction when it comes to the total in Game 6 of this series after the last two games were exceptionally low-scoring (by today's NBA standards). While Game 5 totalled only 173 points, the pace was actually there - at least from the Heat as they got off a series-high 94 field goal attempts. They quite simply couldn't hit their shots. Now with their backs against the wall in Game 6, I'm confident we'll seem them bounce back on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Heat average an impressive 117.2 points per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, with that situation resulting in an average total of 221.4 points (12-game sample size). The Celtics have averaged 113.2 points per game off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 218.1 points (23-game sample size). Miami has held Boston to fewer than 80 FG attempts in three consecutive games. The last time that happened, Miami's next game totalled 222 points back on May 4th against Philadelphia. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game two nights ago in Boston - as we anticipated with a play on the first half 'under'. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the scene shifts back to Miami for Game 5 on Wednesday. Note that the Heat were held to just 30 made field goals in Game 4. That's happened just three times previously this season with the 'over' cashing in their next game each and every time, resulting in an average total of 226 points, including Game 4 last round against Philadelphia - a contest that flew over the posted total of 208 with 224 points. Also note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Celtics coming off a win by 15+ points this season, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 with Miami coming off a contest that totalled 190 points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 226.3 points scored in that spot. The Celtics have been a slightly better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, knocking down an average of 41 field goals per contest while for their part, the Heat average 40 made field goals per game at home. Take the over (9*).

Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

I get the feeling we're going to see both of these teams come out pretty loose with the series well in hand for the Warriors, up 3-0. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this series, and it wasn't as Golden State secured a 109-100 victory and we cashed our play on the 'under'. With that being said, the fact that the game still got to 209 points was impressive considering the Warriors got off 81 field goal attempts and the Mavericks countered with just 75. Here, I look for the pace to tick up, particularly early on, noting that the previous time we saw an 'under' result in this series, the next game (Game 2) saw a whopping 130 points scored in the first half. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 16-4 in the first half with the Warriors playing on the road with an opportunity to close out a playoff series, with that spot producing an average first half total of 116.0 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the first half 'over' go 22-10 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average first half total of 115.5 points. Take the first half over (10*).

Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'over' cash in each of the first three games of this series, not to mention the first half 'over' as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. The last two games have seen these two teams take turns shooting the lights out. First it was a three-point barrage from the Celtics down 1-0 in the series in Game 2 and then an early all-out shooting assault from the Heat back in Boston in Game 3. Now, however, both teams are dealing with some key injuries with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum among those getting banged-up in Game 3 on Saturday. Both will likely play on Monday but whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate. Note that the three regular season meetings between these two teams totalled just 84, 99 and 105 first half points - all staying 'under' the number we're dealing with tonight. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season, leading to an average first half total of just 98.3 points. The Heat have posted a very long-term 104-146 o/u mark in the first half across all playoff games over the last number of years. Take the first half under (10*).

Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring affair on Friday. Dallas got off just 78 field goal attempts in that game - the third time in the last five games it has been held to 78 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Golden State shot the lights out for the second straight game; an identical 46-of-82 shooting to what we saw in Game 1 in fact. Note that the Mavs have only allowed consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals once previously in these playoffs. In their next game they held the Suns to just 94 points in a game that didn't even reach 200 (103-94 final score at home in Game 3 last round). While the Warriors do average 40 made field goals per contest on the road this season, they'll face a tough challenge here with Dallas allowing just 38-of-84 shooting on its home floor. Likewise, the Mavs average 39 made field goals on 85 attempts at home this season but will be up against a Warriors team that can play some defense as well, yielding their opponents just 39 made field goals on 86 attempts per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 72-48 with the Warriors playing on the road off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-1 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110+ points this season, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday.

We cashed our free play on the 'under' in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Friday. While the Mavericks were blown out by 25 points in that game, the pace was actually probably to their liking. They limited the Warriors to just 82 field goal attempts in that game (I realize the lopsided nature of the contest had something to do with that) but Golden State quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 46 of those attempts. One thing was evident in that game - this series isn't likely to be the same up-tempo matchup that we saw from the Warriors and Grizzlies last round. In that series, the Warriors got off 90+ field goal attempts in four of six games while allowing Memphis to attempt 91 or more field goals in all six contests. The Mavs, despite trailing by a considerable margin most of the way, only attempted 86 field goals in Game 1 of this series - pretty much par for the course as they've averaged 84 FG attempts per game on the road this season. While we can anticipate Dallas shooting better than it did in the series-opener (it made good on just 31 field goals), how much better remains to be seen as it did put up only 87 points on Wednesday despite a whopping 48 three-point attempts (it made 11) and 21 trips to the free throw line (five more than the Warriors). Perhaps a more conservative offensive gameplan will serve it well here, as I look for Dallas to lean on a much better defensive performance than we saw in the opener. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they scored 90 or fewer points over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 204.5 points. The 'under' is also 24-11 with Dallas seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 212.0 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series as the oddsmakers quite simply missed the mark with a total just north of 200 points. Now I believe the betting marketplace has overreacted the other way, pushing this total closer to 210 points. Game 1 saw undisciplined defensive efforts from both teams, leading to a combined 66 free throw attempts. I expect nothing of the sort in Game 2 on Thursday. Both teams are fully capable of playing tough defense without needing to foul on every other possession. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring contest in the series-opener, noting that the Celtics got off just 79 field goal attempts while the Heat got off only 80. Boston has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in three straight and five of its last seven games overall. On the flip side, however, the C's have held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals in eight straight games. You would have to go all the way back to Game 1 of the playoffs against Brooklyn to find the last time a C's opponent knocked down more than 41 field goals. The Heat have been even tougher defensively. They've limited nine consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in six of those nine games. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 10 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Wednesday but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 6 on Friday. Here, we'll note that Memphis has posted a 5-16 o/u record when coming off a win by 30+ points in the long-term picture, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have now gotten off 91+ field goal attempts in all five games in this series but I believe this is the game where that tide turns, noting that Ja Morant remains sidelined and the Warriors will be intent on putting their foot down and wrapping this series up on their home floor. Keep in mind, Golden State has held opponents to just 37-of-87 shooting on average here at home this season. The Warriors have now allowed Memphis to knock down 40+ field goals in three straight games but that's their longest such streak since the first week of March. Again, I look for them to make amends here. The 'under' is 25-16 with the Warriors listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, which is the situation here at the time of writing, leading to an average total of just 214.2 points. Take the under (9*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The last two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total and we were on that play in each contest. Here, I'll go the other way, however, as the scene shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 6 on Friday night. Note that the Bucks have allowed the Celtics to make good on 42 field goals in each of the last two games. We haven't seen them allow 40+ made field goals in more than two consecutive games since back in March. On the flip side, Milwaukee has gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in four of five games in this series. With that being said, it has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games. That speaks to the effectiveness of the Celtics defense and we should see that again here as Boston faces elimination for the first time in these playoffs. Note that the 'under' is 38-23 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. While the last two games in this series have been reasonably high-scoring, I still don't think anything is coming easy for either team offensively with most shots contested and four of five games in the series seeing one, if not both teams held to 10 or fewer made three-pointers. Take the under (7*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a very low-scoring Game 4 between these two teams as Golden State prevailed by a 101-98 score (we won with the Grizzlies plus the points). I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Memphis for Game 5 - with the Grizz facing elimination. Note that Memphis has now been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in six straight games, its longest such streak of the entire season (previous was five). I do think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies break out of their funk here, even without Ja Morant. Note that Memphis has had no shortage of scoring opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91, 92 and 96 field goal attempts. The shots quite simply haven't been falling. Here, however, I expect to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown defensively as they know this series is all but wrapped up (especially with Ja Morant all but ruled out for the playoffs). Note that the Grizzlies have posted impressive offensive numbers all season at home, averaging 44-of-94 shooting and they're certainly accustomed to playing without Ja Morant as he's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. Of course, the Warriors have had their way with the Grizzlies defense in this series. They made good on just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in Game 4 but are just one game removed from knocking down 53 field goals in a 142-point outburst in Game 3. In the first two games here in Memphis they got off 93 and 95 FG attempts, hitting 40 or more of them in both contests. While two of the last three games in this series have stayed 'under' the total, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made here. Consider the last matchup here in Memphis - Game 2 of this series - saw a closing total of 227.5. You would have to go all the way back to April 2nd and 3rd to find the last time the Warriors saw consecutive games stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

While we didn't get the result we wanted, missing with the 'over', the pace was absolutely there in Game 3 of this series on Saturday with both teams setting series-highs in terms of field goal attempts (Milwaukee had 99 and Boston 87). That was precisely what we were projecting noting how fast-paced and high scoring the two regular season meetings were here in Milwaukee. I expect more of the same on Monday, but this time I look for both teams to do a much better job of making good on their scoring opportunities. Boston in particular has struggled shooting the ball so far in this series, knocking down 28, 38 and 32 field goals through the first three games. Keep in mind, the Celtics average 41 made field goals per contest on the road this season and knocked down 42 in both road games last round. For its part, Milwaukee also averages 41 made field goals per game at home this season and has connected on 43, 49 and 40 field goals in three previous home matchups with Boston. Here, we'll note that despite Saturday's 'under' result, the 'over' remains 33-21 with the Celtics playing in an 'underdog' role over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 225.1 points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I can't help but feel the total is moving in the wrong direction here, based solely on the low-scoring outcomes we saw in Games 1 and 2. The pace was actually there for an 'over' result in Game 1 but neither team shot the ball well - the Celtics in particular. The second game saw the Bucks struggle shooting the ball with Boston 'managing' the game from start to finish. Here in Game 3, I look for a different story to unfold. While the Celtics are a terrific defensive team, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Bucks, prior to Game 2, had little trouble finding their opportunities offensively against the C's this season. In five previous matchups they got off 90+ field goal attempts each and every time. I do think we'll see the Celtics hold up their end of the bargain here in Game 3 as well though, noting that the Bucks have allowed opponents to knock down an average of 41-of-91 field goal attempts here at home this season. The previous two meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee this season reached 230 and 248 points. Take the over (7*).

Western Conference First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Phoenix and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

At some point in this series, I do expect both the Suns and Mavs to flip the switch and limit the scoring with tough defensive play that we know they're both capable of. I'm just not convinced it happens in the early stages of Game 3 on Friday. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. They've taken it to another level over their last three games, making good on 45, 46 and 49 field goals. We've certainly seen hot starts from them as well, scoring 51+ points in nine of their last 10 games overall, despite missing Devin Booker for a few of those. Scoring hasn't really been a big issue for the Mavs in this series. They've put up 114 and 109 points despite being limited to 85 and 79 field goal attempts through the first two games. Note that the Suns do allow 40 made field goals per contest away from home this season. We can certainly expect Dallas to force the issue early in this contest as it looks to finally put Phoenix back on its heels and ultimately get back in this series. Here, we'll note that the first half 'over' has gone 40-20 with the Mavs coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average first half total of 115.6 points. Take the first half over (10*).

Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this series proved to be relatively low-scoring with the Heat rolling to a 106-92 victory. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Miami's last four games but the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. Note that the Heat have gotten off 92+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games. The only contest where they didn't reach that number was Game 5 against Atlanta, a game that Jimmy Butler missed due to injury. With Philadelphia sagging defensively, yielding its opponents' at least 86 field goal attempts in five of its last six games (it allows just 84 FG attempts per game on the season), I look for Miami's offense to continue to surge here in Game 2. The question becomes whether the Joel Embiid-less 76ers can hold up their end of the bargain and help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. I believe they can. Note that Philadelphia still got to 92 points despite making good on just 34 field goals including just six made three-pointers in Game 1 of this series. The Sixers hoisted up just 79 FG attempts in the loss. I certainly anticipate them finding more scoring opportunities here, noting that Miami has allowed 45, 42, 45, 41, 41 and 31 made field goals (it allowed 94 points in the outlier - Game 5 against Atlanta last round) in its last six games following a win. While Joel Embiid's absence has to be considered, it is worth noting that the 76ers have averaged 115.7 points per game when coming off a game in which they scored 95 points or less over the last two seasons (15-game sample size). Take the over (10*).

NBA Second Round First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We nailed our only first half total in the opening round of the playoffs. That play was on the 'over' in the first half of Game 1 between the Nets and Celtics. In my analysis of that play I noted that the Celtics have had a tendency to get involved in high-scoring first halves in playoff action but the scoring hasn't always been sustainable. We saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 of this series as the two teams scored 102 points in the first half before just 89 points were scored in the second half. Here, I'm anticipating an even higher-scoring opening half as the Celtics shake off the rust after a dismal shooting effort in Game 1. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as Boston was playing following a five-day layoff thanks to its opening round sweep of the Nets. Milwaukee was also playing on extended rest, but just three days. I simply don't feel we saw either team's best punch from an offensive standpoint. Here, I look for the Celtics to force the issue offensively in the opening half, but the defending champion Bucks are unlikely to back down early on, leading to plenty of points in the game's first 24 minutes. Take the first half over (10*).

Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Monday.

The Mavs were involved in an incredibly low-scoring playoff series against the Jazz in the opening round (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a much different series to play out as they face the high-flying Suns in round two. Phoenix is in fine form offensively, even with Devin Booker in and out of the lineup. They enter Game 1 of this series having made good on 42+ field goals in nine consecutive games. That's despite the fact that they've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. I do anticipate the pace picking up a bit in this particular series, as the Mavs know they won't simply be able to slug it out and prevail the way they did against the struggling Jazz. Dallas entered the playoffs on an offensive tear, having knocked down 45, 42 and 46 field goals over its final three regular season games. Of course, an injury to Luka Doncic derailed its offense in the early stages of the series against Utah but the Mavs were able to rally and ultimately brush aside the discombobulated Jazz without too much stress. It's worth noting that Dallas got off 92 and 90 field goal attempts in its two regular season matchups with the Suns here in Phoenix. It didn't take full advantage, however, and the Suns won both of those games, knocking down 41 and 44 field goals in the process. As good as the Mavs can be defensively, I don't see them slowing a Suns offense that averages 44 made field goals and north of 115 points per game at home this season. The Mavs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road compared to at home this season (of note, their highest-scoring game of the opening round came in Game 3 in Utah when they scored 126 points). As I mentioned, I expect the pace to tick up a shade in this series, particularly here in Phoenix where the Suns have allowed opponents to get off 89 field goal attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Memphis at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

Considering the pace the series was played at, I would have projected more than one 'under' result between the Warriors and Nuggets last round. That 'under' result finally came in the series finale - a game that totalled just 200 points. Golden State has now gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. On the flip side, the Warriors are locked-in defensively, having limited six of their last nine opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, going back to March 30th, Golden State has given up 40 or fewer made field goals in eight of 11 contests. The Grlzzlies knocked down more than 40 field goals just twice in their six-game series against the T'Wolves last round. The playoffs are obviously a different animal than the regular season and Memphis found that out as it got off 87 or fewer FG attempts in four of its six first round contests (it averages 94 FG attempts per game this season). However, the Grizzlies are also on a terrific defensive run right now, having held the T'Wolves to 38 or fewer made field goals in each of the last five games last round. Nine of Memphis' last 13 opponents have gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (9*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7 pm et on Thursday.

While we have seen the total drop throughout this series, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made - even after four consecutive 'under' results. The 76ers have gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four contests, making good on 38 or less in all four of those games. Meanwhile, the Raptors posted a high-water mark with 42 made field goals in Game 5, but still scored just 103 points. Prior to that, the Raps had knocked down 38, 38 and 38 field goals over their last three games. Neither team has managed to get off 90+ field goal attempts in any game in this series and I don't see that changing with the stakes incredibly high on Thursday night in Toronto. Keep in mind, the Raptors have held opponents to 38-of-83 shooting on average here at home this season. Likewise, the 76ers have limited the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals per contest away from home and average just 84 FG attempts per game themselves in enemy territory. Take the under (8*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

All four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. The fact that Game 4 sailed 'over' the number by 20+ points has us working with a considerably higher total here. I believe it will prove too high. It's not as if the pace has really been there for such consistently high-scoring results in this series. In Game 4 for example, the Nuggets got off just 73 field goal attempts. That didn't matter though as they shot the lights out (56% from the field). In Game 3 the Warriors attempted just 74 field goals but they were also incredibly efficient, shooting 55% from the field. Here, I expect both teams to finally step up and play some defense as the Warriors look to close out the series while the Nuggets try to get proceedings back to Denver. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-9 with the Warriors playing at home in their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 219.3 points. The 'under' is also 65-46 with the Warriors coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with an average total of 220.1 points in that situation. Also note that Nuggets road games have been considerably lower scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of just 219.7 points. Take the under (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday.

We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Thursday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. We're actually dealing with the highest posted total of the series so far after the first three games all found their way 'over' the total. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in Game 3, the pace hasn't necessarily been there to dictate such high-scoring results. The same held true in Game 3 but both teams simply shot the lights out. Golden State knocked down 41-of-74 field goal attempts while Denver made good on 40-of-80 of its field goal attempts. Golden State knocked down four more three-pointers than its season average away from home in Game 3, while also getting to the line seven more times than its road average. Facing elimination, I do expect the Nuggets to put forth a more disciplined defensive effort here. Meanwhile, the Warriors lukewarm defensive effort in Game 3 was only a blip during an incredible run. They've held seven of their last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last eight opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 72-47 with the Warriors playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins while the Nuggets have posted a 19-43 o/u record when playing at home after allowing their previous opponent to shoot 55% or better, as is the case here. Take the under (6*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We haven't touched this series since cashing with the first half 'over' in Game 1 last Sunday. Game 2 ended up being lower-scoring than Game 1, ultimately staying 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a lower total for Game 3 on Saturday. I believe it's the wrong move. Note that the Nets managed to get off just 78 and 76 field goal attempts in the first two games of this series, yet still scored 114 and 107 points. The 107 points in Game 2 matched their lowest scoring output going all the way back to March 3rd. Interestingly, they followed up that 107-point effort on March 3rd with a 120-point performance in a game that totalled 246 points against the Celtics on March 6th. We can anticipate the pace ticking up a bit with the scene shifting to Brooklyn for Game 3. Note that going back to March 27th the Nets have allowed their last seven opponents here at home to get off 98, 100, 89, 99, 84, 102 and 92 field goal attempts. In the two contests where we didn't see their opponents attempt 90+ field goals, we still saw 239 and 225 total points. The Celtics actually made good on just 39 field goals in Game 2 of this series yet still scored 114 points. In each of their previous six contests they had knocked down 42+ field goals and they check in shooting 41-of-88 on average away from home this season. In two regular season matchups here in Brooklyn, the C's made good on 46 and 50 field goals so they're certainly comfortable shooting on this floor. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Friday.

While Game 2 of this series was higher scoring than Game 1, I don't expect that trend to continue as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday. Throw away a meaningless regular season finale against Orlando and the Heat are on a tremendous run defensively. Outside of that game against the Magic, they've held their other 16 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts going back to March 11th. They've also held seven of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been on an offensive tear, scoring 111 or more points in seven straight games. I'm not sure it's sustainable, however, noting that they've gotten off 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests - the lone outlier being that aforementioned game against Orlando. The Hawks may be known as a fast-paced team, yet they've actually held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts, permitting just 81, 82 and 79 over their last three games. That's not to mention the fact they've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. This will be the seventh meeting between these teams since January. As I like to say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball and just once in the previous six meetings have we seen either team reach 90 FG attempts (that game still totalled just 206 points). Take the under (9*).

NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The first two games of this series have both gone 'over' the total, even though the pace hasn't necessarily been there. The Warriors shot the lights out in those two games, knocking down 43 and 46 field goals despite being held to just 82 and 84 field goal attempts. That's nothing out of the ordinary as Golden State has actually gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 13 games overall. In terms of the Warriors red hot shooting, we have a catalyst for change at play here as the scene shifts to Denver for Game 3 on Thursday. While the Warriors have been terrific offensively in this series, it's their defense that is absolutely locked in right now, and has been for weeks. They've held six of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. We've seen them make a concerted effort to frustrate the opposition and slow the pace away from home, limiting 14 of their last 16 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. For the season, they've held opponents to an average of 39-of-86 shooting on the road. For the Nuggets, they obviously need to step up defensively in an 0-2 hole in this series. They've actually held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts with the only exception coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the Lakers. Remember, we saw a matchup between these two teams total just 175 points - a game the Nuggets won - earlier this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 21-10 with the Warriors coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. In the long-term picture we've seen the 'under' cash at a 72-46 clip with Golden State playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The first game of this series was extremely low-scoring, totalling just 179 points. As a result, we're working with a considerably lower posted total for Game 2. I believe it will prove too low. Note that the Bulls did get off 96 field goal attempts in Game 1. They simply weren't able to make good on their opportunities, knocking down just 31 of them. Note that they had previous made good on 42+ field goals in five of their last eight contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago has posted a 13-3 o/u record after scoring 100 points or less in its previous game this season. The Bucks have now yielded their opponents' 90+ field goal attempts in 13 of their last 16 games overall. So again, the opportunities will likely be there for the Bulls on Wednesday - it will be up to them to take advantage. Here, we'll note that the Bucks have allowed 113.1 points per game when playing at home off a win this season (compared to their season scoring average allowed at home of 110.5 points per game), resulting in an average total of 228.2 points. The Bulls are not a good defensive team. The Bucks simply had an off shooting night in Game 1, hitting just 34-of-84 field goal attempts. We'll chalk that poor performance up to rust as they hadn't played in a week. Prior to that contest (and their meaningless regular season finale in Cleveland), the Bucks had knocked down 50, 42, 46, 49 and 50 field goals in their last five games. Leading into this series, Chicago had allowed 45, 44, 46, 43, 52 and 46 made field goals over its last six contests, yielding 117+ points in each of those games. The Bulls haven't seen consecutive games go 'under' the total since a three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 29th. Milwaukee last posted consecutive 'under' results during a three-game 'under' streak from March 22nd to 26th. Expect a much different story to unfold than we saw in the series opener. Take the over (10*).

NBA First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Brooklyn and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

I expect this series to get off to a high-scoring start on Sunday afternoon in Boston as the Nets and Celtics match up for the fifth time this season. We saw the Nets offense get in gear down the stretch, making good on 41+ field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their last four contests they knocked down 41, 43, 52 and 45 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to March 3rd to find the last time they didn't score 110+ points in a game. An issue, however, has been their loose play defensively. In their last two games they allowed the Pacers and Cavs to get off 104 and 92 field goal attempts. Seven of their last nine opponents made good on 40+ field goals. The Celtics are certainly well-positioned to take advantage. They've knocked down 43+ field goals in five straight games, eclipsing the 50 field goal mark in two of those contests. While you could argue their last couple of games didn't really matter, the C's did yield 97 and 102 field goal attempts to the opposition and I expect to see the Nets force the issue early in this one. We'll play the first half only as I have noticed a trend in Celtics playoff games where the defense picks up and the pace slows as the game progresses. Early on, I look for both sides to find plenty of scoring success here. Take the first half over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 1 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think Luka Doncic's absence can be over-exaggerated in this game. He obviously adds so much to the Mavs offense but is by no means a defensive stopper. Dallas' path to staying competitive in this game comes by slowing things down and ultimately limiting Utah's scoring opportunities, something it has proven to be able to do, particularly here at home this season. Note that the Mavs have yielded opponents just 38-of-85 shooting on average at home. Down the stretch we saw them allow fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last 10 games. However, without Luka you do have to wonder where their offense will come from. Note that Dallas only managed to get off 78, 76, 80, 79 and 85 FG attempts over its last five regular season games and that was with Luka in the lineup the majority of the time. The Jazz have been incredibly stingy defensively, holding eight of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While their offense can be explosive at times, that certainly wasn't the case all season long, noting that they made good on 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last five games. In fact, they average just 86 FG attempts per game on the road this season with the 'under' going 22-18-1. The last meeting between these two teams on March 27th got to 214 total points but that was thanks only to the Mavs shooting the lights out. The pace of that game certainly didn't dictate an 'over' result with Utah attempting 89 field goals and Dallas getting off just 77. Take the under (6*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Friday.

We missed with the 'over' in the Hawks rout of the Hornets two nights ago but it wasn't by much and here we're dealing with a considerably lower total as Atlanta heads to Cleveland to decide who moves onto the first round of the NBA Playoffs. I believe the total will prove too low. I'm not convinced that Wednesday's 'under' result had more to do with the Hawks superb defense than lousy shooting from the Hornets. Atlanta actually yielded 90 field goal attempts in that contest but Charlotte could make good on only 34 of them. That snapped a streak of five straight games in which the Hawks allowed 40+ made field goals - a streak I expect to pick right back up on Friday. The Cavs come in having knocked down 42, 40, 51 and 41 field goals over their last four games. On the flip side, they've allowed 43+ made field goals in three of their last four contests. The lone game in which they didn't give up 40+ we still saw a whopping 248 total points against Milwaukee. I like the fact that both teams have been forcing the issue offensively, with Atlanta hoisting up 92+ FG attempts in three of its last five games and Cleveland getting off 94 and 92 FG attempts in its last two contests. Three of four regular season meetings between these two teams totalled at least 238 points with both teams attempting 90+ field goals in their most recent matchup on March 31st. Take the over (8*).

Play-in Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

This is the highest posted total of the play-in round and it's that high for a reason. The Hornets enter this showdown arguably playing their best offensive basketball of the season, having scored 128, 133 and 124 points over their last three games. They've made good on 40+ field goals in an incredible 15 straight games. Over their last four contests they've knocked down 45, 48, 52 and 48 field goals. While I'm not projecting a break-neck pace to this game, I'm confident both sides can make good on their opportunities. Note that the Hornets have yielded their opponents 40+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games. Two of their last three foes managed to get off 94 or more field goal attempts. The Hawks are certainly capable of taking advantage, having knocked down 43, 43, 42 and 45 field goals over their last four games. In fact, they've made good on 42+ field goals in eight of their last nine contests. However, like the Hornets the Hawks have also been generous defensively, giving up 40+ made field goals in five straight and 20 of their last 21 games overall. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just 222 points back on March 16th and that's contributing to a lower posted total here than we saw on that night. The two teams combined to hit below their average in three-point field goals and free throws in that contest. I believe this game is being projected by oddsmakers to have a pace in the high-80's as far as FG attempts go. Even at that pace I believe the two teams can get 'over' the total but if it ticks up at all, I think we see this game sail well north of the number. Take the over (10*).

Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'under' (by 25+ points) in the Spurs 100-94 loss to the Warriors last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they wrap up the regular season in Dallas on Sunday. Note that we also won with the 'under' in the Mavs most recent game, despite the fact that they put up 128 points against the Blazers. Here, we'll note that the Spurs have been playing much better defense lately, holding nine of their last 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While they haven't always been able to control their opponents' tempo, they did limit the Warriors to just 81 field goal attempts last night. The Mavs don't figure to push the pace all that much here. While they did put up a ridiculous number of points last time out, they actually attempted just 79 field goals. They've hoisted up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games, getting off 90 or fewer attempts in an incredible 29 straight games. Of course that doesn't always assure us of a low-scoring result as Dallas is capable of shooting the lights out. However, here on the final night of the regular season, I'm not sure we'll see it. Defensively, the Mavs are locked-in right now, holding their last two opponents to 35 or fewer made field goals on 83 or less FG attempts. The Spurs, missing both Jakob Poeltl and DeJounte Murray - two of their best scoring options - have attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six straight games - a stark contrast to what we were seeing earlier in the season. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Raptors enter this game off consecutive 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Toronto has held four of its last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts and figures to have a good chance to keep that going against a Knicks squad that has gotten off 90 or fewer FG attempts in 15 of its last 16 games. New York has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last four contests and most recently limited the Wizards to just 69 FG attempts in a 114-92 win in Washington. Over their last three contests, the Knicks have yielded just 30, 41 and 35 made field goals. Brooklyn was the one opponent that knocked down 40+ field goals against them and that game still stayed well 'under' the total (we won with the 'under' in that game earlier this week). The Raptors are certainly rolling along offensively, but that's had a lot to do with getting off so many FG attempts. They've attempted 91+ field goals in three straight games - a pace I'm not sure we'll see them employ against a stingy Knicks defense here. The most recent meeting between these two teams did total 225 points but that game saw a whopping 48 made free throws, noting that the two teams average just 34 made free throws per game this season. Their two previous matchups both stayed well below the total we're working with here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out. However, in the bigger picture, both have been trending to the 'under' in recent weeks. Few teams are as locked-in as the Warriors are defensively right now. They've held their last four opponents to 38, 38, 31 and 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held 11 of their last 15 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding just 81 and 83 field goal attempts over their last two games and fewer than 90 in seven of their last nine contests. We've actually seen the Spurs turn things around defensively as well, giving up 41 or fewer made field goals in four consecutive games. Opponents are still pushing the pace against them, but I'm not sure we'll see that from the Warriors here, noting that they'll be resting Klay Thompson and also have their regular season finale tomorrow in New Orleans so we can certainly expect some 'game management'. Offensively, you would have to go back six games to find the last time San Antonio got off 90+ FG attempts. While it has continued to shoot well, I question whether it will continue given how the Warriors have been playing, not to mention the fact the Spurs are without two of their top scoring options (among others) in DeJounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. The last meeting between these two teams in March totalled 218 points and I would argue that game was played at a faster pace than we'll see tonight, with both teams performing similarly offensively to what we can expect here, lending itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse offensive basketball than the Blazers as we head into the final weekend of the regular season. Missing so many key contributors following a pre-trade deadline fire sale and then a number of injuries, they're limping to the finish line. Note that Portland has scored 94 points or less in three straight games, struggling to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting only 84, 83 and a woeful 69 field goals over its last three contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three straight and seven of the Blazers last nine games overall. On a positive note, they have held 10 of their last 13 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They had allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games prior to last night's 127-94 loss in New Orleans (the Pelicans knocked down 44-of-93 FG attempts in that game). The Mavs have of course been lights out offensively of late. The 'over' has cashed in each of their last six games even though the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. They've attempted 80 or fewer field goals in each of their last three contests. Dallas has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. On the flip side, the Mavs held the Pistons to just 35-of-82 shooting in their most recent contest and I believe that offers some foreshadowing as to what we're likely going to see against the down-trodden Blazers on Friday. This is a game the Mavs will undoubtedly be looking to 'manage' as nearly a 20-point favorite playing their sixth game in the last 11 nights (in five different cities). Take the under (10*).

NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Magic have essentially thrown in the towel defensively, allowing 42+ made field goals in three of their last four games with 12 of their last 18 opponents getting off 90+ field goal attempts. However, as we saw two nights ago in an underdog role against the Cavs, they're still capable of rising up and playing the role of spoiler, scoring 120 points on 47-of-93 shooting despite missing a number of key contributors in that contest. Here, they'll travel to Charlotte to face a Hornets squad that has acted as a swinging door defensively, allowing 43, 40, 40, 53 and 48 made field goals over their last five games despite only one of those contests being played at a particularly fast pace (their last four opponents have all gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts). Offensively, Charlotte continues to shine. It has knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games, scoring 106 or more points in all 12 of those contests. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. But again, defense is an issue. Each of Charlotte's last 15 opponents have scored 100+ points. Remember, the Magic shot 45-of-87 from the field and scored 116 points in their most recent matchup here in Charlotte back in January. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season but I believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

I really like the way this total sets up on Wednesday as the Nets play their second game in as many nights, making the short trip to Manhattan to face the Knights. Brooklyn rolled to a 118-105 win over lowly Houston last night. That marked the Nets third consecutive 'under' result and that's a trend I'm willing to bet on continuing here. Brooklyn has now held three straight and eight of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Knicks don't figure to challenge that trend as they've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in nine of their last 14 contests. They did bust out in their last game, scoring 118 points on 45-of-93 shooting but that was against a Magic team that has quite simply folded the tent down the stretch, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. New York has tightened the screws defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of its last 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip over that stretch. While the Nets have scored 115+ points in four straight games, they're in a bit of a tougher spot here, noting this is the second of back-to-backs and considering the Knicks have yielded opponents 85 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six contests and 90 or less attempts in nine consecutive games. Finally, I'll point out that none of the previous three meetings in this series this season have topped 222 total points. Take the under (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

These two teams just met last week and combined to score a whopping 265 points in a wild overtime affair in Portland. The two teams combined to knock down 98 field goals including 40 from beyond the arc in that contest. I'm not expecting a repeat performance from either side here. Both teams are simply playing out the string at this point, and have been for quite some time. They're also both dealing with a number of key injuries and absences. The Blazers have been as uneven as it gets offensively of late, not unexpected given the current state of their roster. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in six of their last nine games. On a positive note they have limited the opposition to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games and 85 or less in seven of their last nine overall. Oklahoma City had been pushing the pace a bit when Shae-Gilgeous Alexander was healthy, however, he's now out for the remainder of the season and the Thunder have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. There's reason to think they'll be interested in slowing things down here after successfully doing so in a stunning 117-96 win over the Suns as a 14-point underdog last time out - a game in which they allowed just 37-of-89 shooting. Four of the Thunder's last six opponents have knocked down 41 or fewer field goals. Prior to that high-scoring one-off between these two teams last week, the previous two meetings this season totalled just 179 and 189 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers most recent game - a 117-107 loss at home against New Orleans on Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as they hit the road to face the Spurs. Note that these two teams just matched up on March 23rd in Portland as San Antonio rolled to a 133-96 win. That game managed to creep 'over' the total despite Portland shooting a woeful 36-of-94 from the field. I do expect some improvement from the revenge-minded Blazers here, noting that they've made good on 43, 37, 51 (OT-aided) and 39 field goals over their last four games. The problem for Portland is its non-existent defense. It has allowed its last five opponents to knock down 46, 43, 44, 48 and 40 field goals, giving up 115+ points in all five contests. The Spurs should certainly be able to take advantage. They've scored 107+ points in five straight games, making good on 47 and 42 field goals over their last two contests. My concern with the Spurs laying all of those points in this spot is that they've allowed opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts in six straight games. With the Blazers finding a bit of confidence offensively over the last couple of games, I do think they can contribute enough to help this one 'over' the total. In the Spurs last five home games they've allowed the opposition to knock down 45, 52, 43, 48 and 44 field goals. Take the over (8*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

C.J. McCollum will make his return to Portland as a member of the Pelicans after being dealt from the Blazers prior to the trade deadline. While the Blazers are going nowhere this season, I do think they get up for this game and we see an up-tempo affair on Wednesday night. We know what we're going to get from New Orleans right now. The Pelicans have scored 102+ points in 20 consecutive games and have made good on 40+ field goals in 15 straight contests. The Blazers don't figure to do much to stand in their way here, noting they've allowed 40+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Albeit aided by overtime, they allowed 48-of-90 shooting and 134 points against an undermanned Thunder squad last time out. Despite a depleted roster, Portland has managed to push the pace a little more than it had been recently over its last couple of games, attempting 93 and 99 field goal attempts in regulation time in those two contests. The Blazers have generally been alternating good and bad offensive efforts lately, but again, I expect them to get up for this one, especially as they look to salvage something from this five-game homestand (they're 0-4 so far). While New Orleans has been limiting its opponents' tempo for the most part, it is also allowing the opposition to shoot for a lofty percentage. Note that four of the Pelicans last five opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Lakers will likely be without Lebron James for this game but I feel the total has been adjusted too low based on the way they've been playing lately. L.A. has actually settled into a bit of a groove offensively, having made good on 47, 48, 53, 50 and 42 field goals over its last five games with the low-water mark coming in a game where it got off just 80 field goal attempts against New Orleans last time out. On the flip side, the Lakers have also gone back to their awful ways defensively, giving up 44+ made field goals in five straight games with five of their last six opponents putting up 120+ points. The Mavs obviously play tough defense at home. I can see them lacking a bit of intensity here, however, as they look ahead to a trip to Cleveland tomorrow and perhaps underestimate the Lebron-less Lakers. While Los Angeles averages just 111.1 points per game on the road this season, that average bumps up to 116.9 points per game when coming off a road loss, as is the case here. Take the over (8*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday.

I don't expect to see much defense in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday night. The Hornets roll into this game having made good on 52, 49, 43, 44, 40, 42 and 41 field goals over their last seven games. You get the idea. They're scoring fairly consistently right now and won't back down from the challenge at hand in Brooklyn on Sunday, noting that they've already won on this floor this season. More recently these two teams met in Charlotte and they combined to score 253 points on March 8th. The Nets entered last night's game in Miami having knocked down 45+ field goals in all but one of their previous nine games. Counter to that, they've also yielded 92+ FG attempts to opponents in five of their last eight contests. Expect a track meet here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Boston at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

You'd be hard-pressed to find a hotter offensive team than the Celtics right now. They've made good on 46, 47, 44 and 50 field goals over their last four games, scoring 124+ points in each of those four contests. Keep in mind, the C's are just one game removed from allowing 123 points on 48-of-93 shooting against an undermanned Thunder squad so there's a path for the T'Wolves to stay competitive in an underdog role here. Minnesota has of course been playing well also and checks in having knocked down 52, 40, 47, 36, 42 and 43 field goals over its last six games. The outlier came on the road against Dallas and it's worth noting the Wolves still scored 108 points in that game. We can be quite confident that the Wolves will find their scoring opportunities here, noting that they've gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six games and also reached that number in their first meeting with Boston this season. The Celtics have been scoring at will despite the fact that they've been held to 88 or fewer FG attempts in six straight games. They're likely to get into the 90's in that department here, noting that Minnesota has yielded 90+ FG attempts to opponents in four of its last six contests. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled 240 points and while we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it will still prove too low. We of course know that the Bucks can 'fill it up' on any given night, seemingly regardless who is in or out of the lineup. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 14 of their last 15 games overall, and more recently have knocked down 40, 47, 43, 50 and 42 field goals in their last five contests. They also haven't been doing anything to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 92+ field goal attempts in six straight games. As for the Grizzlies, they've hit 40+ field goals in 13 straight games, even with the likes of Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks in and out of the lineup (Morant remains sidelined while Brooks should be back on Saturday). They've been lights out offensively over their last few games, knocking down 46, 47 and 50 field goals over that stretch while scoring 122+ points in all three contests. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

I understand the thinking that this will be a 'defense-optional' type of affair but I have little confidence in both offenses showing up and hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. Houston 'unders' have been one of the best kept betting secrets in the NBA lately as each of its last four contests have stayed 'under' the total with only one of those games coming anywhere close to eclipsing the total. The Rockets have gotten off just 86, 77, 85, 79, 86, 85 and 82 field goal attempts over their last seven games. They've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. Houston has topped out at 118 points over its last seven contests and even that might not be enough to topple the total on Friday. After a miserable stretch of non-existent defense we have seen the Rockets hold their last two opponents to just 85 and 86 FG attempts. It's not as if the Blazers have been able to consistently push the pace, not with their injury-depleted roster that was already cleaned out by way of trades prior to the deadline. They've made good on just 38, 37 and 36 field goals over their last three games. Pre-trade deadline acquisition Josh Hart gave them a bit of an offensive spark on a recent road trip but now he's sidelined due to injury as well. On a positive note, Portland has at least been limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively-speaking, I know), yielding 80, 77, 84, 85 and 94 FG attempts over its last five contests. Its most recent game was the outlier as it allowed a whopping 133 points against San Antonio. Of course, the Rockets aren't the Spurs, and I expect a better defensive effort from the Blazers here. Take the under (8*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and it's not as if they're getting any looser. Neither team has scored more than 114 points in any of the previous three matchups with those contests totalling 216, 216 and 218 total points. I would anticipate tonight's contest being played at a very similar pace to what we saw earlier this week when the Mavs prevailed by a 110-108 score in Dallas. That game saw the two teams combined to knock down 27 three-pointers (they average a combined 28 made threes per game this season) and 39 free throws (they average 34 made free throws combined this season). The Mavs continue to put the defensive clamps on the opposition, yielding fewer than 89 FG attempts in seven of their last nine games. The only two opponents that got off more than 89 attempts were Brooklyn and the same Minnesota squad they'll face tonight, with those two scoring just 111 and 108 points, respectively. Meanwhile, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in a game. The T'Wolves are actually a respectable defensive team here at home this season, holding the opposition to 38-of-87 shooting on average with the 'under' cashing at a 19-17-1 clip. They got lit up by a red hot Suns squad that couldn't miss last time out. Coming off consecutive losses I look for Minnesota to tighten things up here. Note that the last three times they've played at home following consecutive losses they've allowed just 103, 99 and 106 points. Take the under (10*).