Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 210.5 | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 84 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Celtics Eastern Conference Finals Game 7 win over the Heat, getting there despite the total being set in the 190's. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I expect this series between the C's and Warriors to play out much differently. The Celtics finally got off 80+ field goal attempts in Game 7 - 85 in fact - after being held under that number in four straight games against Miami. I'm sure the C's realize that they'll need to step up their offensive considerably against the Warriors as opposed to the banged-up Heat they faced last round. Golden State has incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of its last 21 games. While the Warriors last series against Dallas was played at a relatively slow-pace (in stark contrast to their second round series against Memphis), the 'over' still managed to cash in three of five games. Here, we're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw at any point in that series against the Mavs. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 36-22 with the Celtics checking in as an underdog over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 224.7 points. The 'over' is also a long-term 117-80 with Golden State seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent, as is the case here after Boston rolled to a 110-88 win here in San Francisco back in mid-March. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | 0-4 | Win | 129 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 8 pm et on Thursday. Recency bias certainly plays a major factor when it comes to the playoffs, whether it be the NBA or the NHL. In this case, we just saw a wild, high-scoring affair that featured a whopping 14 goals in Game 1 and not only that, but the Avs lost starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper to an injury. We were unfortunately on the 'under' in that contest - not a wise call by any means - but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here with 7's offering a plus-money return and even some 7.5's popping up at some books. Note that the 'under' is 17-10 with the Oilers playing on the road following a game that totalled 7+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 6.4 goals. The 'under' is also 21-12 with Edmonton coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 3+ goals, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 6.2 goals. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Norway v. Serbia OVER 2 | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Serbia and Norway at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. Norway is coming off the tremendous disappointment of missing out on the World Cup, failing to qualify for November's tournament in Qatar. Not only did it not qualify but it stunningly failed to find the back of the net even once in its final two qualification matches. I look for the Norwegians to make amends on Thursday as they open Nations League play against Serbia. Of course, Serbia won't be easy to tame here at home, where it hasn't lost a single match since 2020. The Serbians should benefit from facing a Norwegian back-line that will be missing two key cogs in Omar Elabdellaoui and Kristoffer Ajer. While striker Duhan Vlahovic will not be on the pitch for Serbia it does have depth up front with Aleksandar Mitrovic and Luka Jovic more than capable of filling the void. While this match may feature some dry periods, both sides do possess that quick-strike ability that we're looking for when playing an 'over'. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Sweden v. Slovenia UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Slovenia and Sweden at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. On paper, Sweden should have its way with Slovenia. After all, the Swedes check in ranked 19th in the world by FIFA while Slovenia is 65th. However, Sweden has managed to score just one goal in its last four matches across all competitions. That lone goal came in extra time against the Czechs in World Cup qualifying. Each of Sweden's last five matches have totalled two goals or less. With Slovenia being the expected bottom-feeder in this Nations League group we can anticipate it simply looking to take something, anything from this match - perhaps one where the potential is there to at least gain a point. Interestingly, Slovenia is actually undefeated across its last four contests. A tentative start to the Nations League can be expected here and I envision both sides struggling to find more than a single goal. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
06-01-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Rangers stunning 6-2 win over the Hurricanes in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semi-final series on Monday. I won't hesitate to go the other way with the 'under' in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday night. The Lightning saw all four of their games against the in-state rival Panthers stay 'under' the total - a much different outcome than most were expecting. Likewise, the Rangers saw the first five games of their series against Carolina stay 'under' before things opened up in Games 6 and 7. While there will be plenty of offensive firepower on display in this series, I'm not sure we'll see it right out of the gate on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Lightning playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after the Rangers took the final two regular season meetings between these two teams, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 29-15 with the Blueshirts playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here. New York allows just 2.3 goals per game at Madison Square Garden this season and it has a red hot, world-class goaltender in Igor Shesterkin. The Lightning have their own elite goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy and he posted a ridiculous .981 save percentage in Tampa Bay's four-game sweep of Florida. Expect goals to be tough to come by in the series-opener. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-31-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -129 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a total of 7 at plenty of books leading up to Game 1 of the Western Conference Final between the Oilers and Avalanche. The 'over' cashed in four of the Oilers five games against the Flames last round. Credit the Oilers for taking it to their in-province rivals and ultimately prevailing in fewer games than most would have imagined. They'll face a much tougher challenge here, however. Colorado had to break a sweat but ultimately got past the Blues in six games last round. While the Avalanche boast a potent offense, it's important to note that their defensive play has been terrific as well. Note that the Avs have given up three goals or less in eight of 10 playoff games. They held the Oilers to two goals or less in consecutive meetings earlier this season before dropping a 6-3 decision in Edmonton very late in the regular season when they were already looking ahead to the playoffs, mired in a 1-6 slide to end the campaign. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Oilers playing on the road after winning four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.0 goals. This season, the 'under' is 9-3 with the Oilers playing on the road after consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 6.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-3 clip when playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-30-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 36 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 8 pm et on Monday. We've been riding the 'under' throughout this series, with considerable success. Now that the genie is finally out of the bottle, so to speak, following the Rangers high-scoring 5-2 victory on Saturday night, I look for another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 7 on Monday night. The Canes fired a whopping 39 shots on goal in Saturday's loss but didn't really generate enough dangerous scoring chances to keep pace with the Blueshirts. That should change back at home. New York seemed to finally solve Canes goaltender Antti Raanta on Saturday, finding the back of the net three times on just 13 shots before he was replaced. Raanta has played as well as he has at any point of his career in these playoffs but you have to wonder if the clock could be striking midnight. The Rangers certainly boast plenty of firepower and have now scored 13 goals in taking three of the last four games in this series. The Canes are at home for Game 7, however, and I'm confident they can bounce back from their poor showing on Saturday, noting that they have scored 21 goals in their last five home contests following a loss, good for an average of over 4.0 goals per game. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 197.5 | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. Have we transported back in time? That's what it feels like working with a total in the 190's in advance of Game 7 between the Celtics and Heat on Sunday. Of course, what else would you expect as we're talking about two of the league's best defensive teams with a chance to advance to the NBA Finals on the line. We actually won with the 'over', making that play on a considerably higher posted total on Friday. While that game ultimately cruised 'over' the total, we certainly saw glimpses of what is to come in Game 7. The Celtics were held to just 72 field goal attempts in that contest - the fourth straight game in which they were limited to fewer than 80 FG attempts. On the flip side, we finally saw Boston limit Miami's scoring opportunities, holding it to 78 FG attempts after yielding 90+ in each of the previous three games. Miami shot exceptionally well when it matter early and late in Friday's game and both teams got to the free throw line 25+ times. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however, as the officials 'let them play' a little more in this seventh-and-deciding game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 40-24 with Boston seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons while Miami has seen the 'under' go 14-4 when playing at home after losing two of its last three contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
05-29-22 | Mercury v. Dream UNDER 164.5 | 54-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Atlanta at 12 noon et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in the Mercury's most recent game - a wild 99-94 loss in Los Angeles on Wednesday. While the pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair (Phoenix got off 66 field goal attempts and Los Angeles countered with 66), both teams shot the lights out. I expect a much different story to unfold as the Mercury stay on the road for a third straight game, facing the Dream in Atlanta on Sunday. Note that while Phoenix has seen its last three games go 'over' the total, Atlanta is coming off consecutive 'under' results. The Dream have held four of their last five opponents to 68 or fewer FG attempts with their last two opponents getting off only 55 and 60. While the Mercury have been struggling defensively, they've also run into three consecutive hot-shooting opponents with Dallas, Las Vegas and Los Angeles all knocking down 34+ field goals. Here, Phoenix catches a Dream squad that has made good on just 27 and 20 field goals over its last two contests and has been held to fewer than 29 made field goals in six of seven contests this season. The outlier was a non-competitive 101-79 victory over arguably the league's worst team in Indiana. Last year's three meetings between these two teams produced 173, 153 and 151 points. Note that the outlier saw Phoenix get off a ridiculous 90 FG attempts with both teams knocking down 35+ field goals. The fact that those numbers 'only' ended up leading to a total of 173 points was encouraging for our purposes today. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-5 with Phoenix coming off a game in which it scored 90+ points over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 159.9 points. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-28-22 | Mystics v. Sun UNDER 156.5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Saturday. Washington has seen the 'under' cash in four straight games while Connecticut is riding a five-game 'over' streak. Obviously something has to give in this one. I have a lot of respect for both of these teams but in particular for their defense. Washington has been as stingy as it gets this season, holding opponents to just 25-of-64 shooting on average. While tonight's matchup is a difficult one, especially given Connecticut has scored 90+ points in four of its last five games, consider that the Mystics did already face arguably the league's best offensive team in the Las Vegas Aces earlier this season, and held up well, allowing only 76 points on 27-of-65 shooting. Connecticut's recent offensive surge has come against some of the league's weakest defensive teams in New York, Indiana (twice) and Dallas (twice). The Sun have been playing smothering defense as usual, holding six of seven opponents to 65 field goal attempts or fewer and four of those seven opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with Washington playing on the road after winning three of its last four games ATS over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 151.8 points. The 'under' is 13-4 with Connecticut coming off a game that totalled 165+ points over the same stretch, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 152.5 points. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-28-22 | Real Madrid v. Liverpool OVER 2.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Liverpool and Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Saturday. Last year's Champions League Final was a bit of a snoozer unless you're a real student of the game. Chelsea won that match by a 1-0 score over Manchester City. Oddly enough, I'm actually expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here but with that being said, I simply feel this total has been set too low. 'Low-scoring' is a relative term considering how these two squads have performed, particularly in Champions League play. Gone are the days of Real Madrid putting on routine defensive clinics in big matches such as this. Los Blancos have been pushing hard, often out of necessity after digging deep holes for themselves. You'd be hard-pressed to find a striker in better form than Karim Benzema right now. He possesses the ability to tilt the scales in Los Blancos' favor at any given moment. Of course, Liverpool plays an extremely aggressive, attacking brand of football. The Reds will look to pressure Real Madrid's oft-leaky defense early and often on Saturday. Regardless which team strikes first, an equalizer should never be far off. If there's an area to be exploited on Liverpool's side in might just be in goal where keeper Alisson is beatable in my opinion. Benzema and Vinicius Jr. have been clinical and should pose a major threat to the Reds last line of defense here. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I think we're seeing a major overreaction when it comes to the total in Game 6 of this series after the last two games were exceptionally low-scoring (by today's NBA standards). While Game 5 totalled only 173 points, the pace was actually there - at least from the Heat as they got off a series-high 94 field goal attempts. They quite simply couldn't hit their shots. Now with their backs against the wall in Game 6, I'm confident we'll seem them bounce back on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Heat average an impressive 117.2 points per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, with that situation resulting in an average total of 221.4 points (12-game sample size). The Celtics have averaged 113.2 points per game off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 218.1 points (23-game sample size). Miami has held Boston to fewer than 80 FG attempts in three consecutive games. The last time that happened, Miami's next game totalled 222 points back on May 4th against Philadelphia. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 165.5 | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have posted disappointing defensive numbers in the early going this season with Phoenix allowing just shy of 88 points per game and Los Angeles giving up just over 85 points per contest. Both have also faced very difficult schedules, however. The Mercury have already gone up against the league's best offensive team, the Las Vegas Aces, three times. Their other three games haven't been easy either, facing perennial championship contender Seattle twice and a surging Dallas squad in another. Meanwhile, the Sparks are coming off a difficult three-game in seven-night stretch that saw them face the Lynx, Storm and Aces in three different cities. I look for the scoring to finally settle down for both teams here, noting that last year's three meetings produced just 165, 146 and 167 points. Yes, two of those outcomes were right around the total we're dealing with tonight but I'm not convinced that either team wants to get involved in a track meet here, especially with both riding extended losing streaks (Phoenix has lost three in a row while Los Angeles has dropped five straight games). Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings under between Boston and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. Given last night's offensive fireworks most are probably expecting more of the same on Wednesday. I'll go the contrarian route, however, and call for this one to get off to a relatively quiet start. The Red Sox will hand the ball to crafty veteran left-hander Rich Hill. He's had plenty of time to get over an ugly (and short) outing against the Mariners last week. That start came at home. He's been much sharper on the road where he has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings of work this season. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito didn't have his best stuff last week in Kansas City but he still managed to get through five innings allowing only two earned runs. Keep in mind, that was Giolito's first start back after a brief stint on the Covid list. We've seen Giolito pitch well in a pair of previous home starts this season, recording a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 13 innings. Rather than mess with the two bullpens, which have both been inconsistent this season, we'll call for the starters to keep things in check early on in this one. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game two nights ago in Boston - as we anticipated with a play on the first half 'under'. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the scene shifts back to Miami for Game 5 on Wednesday. Note that the Heat were held to just 30 made field goals in Game 4. That's happened just three times previously this season with the 'over' cashing in their next game each and every time, resulting in an average total of 226 points, including Game 4 last round against Philadelphia - a contest that flew over the posted total of 208 with 224 points. Also note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Celtics coming off a win by 15+ points this season, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 with Miami coming off a contest that totalled 190 points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 226.3 points scored in that spot. The Celtics have been a slightly better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, knocking down an average of 41 field goals per contest while for their part, the Heat average 40 made field goals per game at home. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. East First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Braves for putting up six runs including two in the ninth inning in last night's wild walk-off win over the Phillies. I'm not counting on another offensive outburst here, however. Note that Atlanta hasn't scored more than six runs in a game since May 8th. It has been held to four runs or less in six of its last nine contests. Tonight, the Braves will face Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez who will be happy to face a team other than the Dodgers after running into Los Angeles in each of his last two outings. Suarez checks in sporting a 2.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the road this season. Charlie Morton counters for Atlanta. He's settled down after a shaky start to the campaign, allowing just four earned runs in 16 1/3 innings over his last three trips to the hill. Morton owns a terrific 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. He last faced the Phillies right here in Atlanta last September, delivering seven innings of shutout ball. Note that Morton has yielded just one home run in his last seven outings against Philadelphia. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. East First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up well to play the 'over' in the first five innings only as we get the pitching matchup of Tyler Wells for the Orioles against J.P. Sears - making his first big league start - for the Yankees. Wells is going to be in tough here as he makes his second straight start on just four days' rest. He's had an up and down start to the season but it's been mostly down lately as he has allowed six earned runs in just 8 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Wells has topped out at four strikeouts in his eight starts so far this season so it's not as if he's fooling many hitters. I certainly don't expect him to fool many Yankees batters on Wednesday as they get their third look at him already this season. While they haven't had a great deal of success against him so far, that will likely change here as this will be the first time they catch Wells pitching on short rest. We don't know much about J.P. Sears - certainly not what he's capable of at the big league level. What we do know is that the Orioles bats have been heating up, rattling off 11, 11, 6, 10, 9 and 7 hits over their last six games, plating 9, 8, 1, 7, 6 and 6 runs over that stretch. We're not interested in dealing with the two bullpens here as both have a fairly solid track record so far this season. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. It seems as if the Padres may have left their bats in San Francisco where they enjoyed plenty of success last weekend. In the first two games of this series it's been a struggle at the plate as they've managed just four runs, splitting those two contests. Having not had a day off since May 16th you can be sure they have one eye on tomorrow's off-day before welcoming Pittsburgh to Petco Park for a three-game series. While there's nothing special about Brewers starter Aaron Ashby's stuff, he generally does what it asked of him, having allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six outings. San Diego will counter with Yu Darvish. He'll be making his sixth straight start on at least five days' rest and comes off a solid outing in which he tossed seven shutout innings in Philadelphia. Darvish has been terrific at home this season, allowing one earned run in 6 2/3 innings against Atlanta, no earned runs over six frames against Los Angeles (Dodgers) and two earned runs over seven innings against Miami. He has posted a stellar 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in seven career starts against Milwaukee. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I get the feeling we're going to see both of these teams come out pretty loose with the series well in hand for the Warriors, up 3-0. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this series, and it wasn't as Golden State secured a 109-100 victory and we cashed our play on the 'under'. With that being said, the fact that the game still got to 209 points was impressive considering the Warriors got off 81 field goal attempts and the Mavericks countered with just 75. Here, I look for the pace to tick up, particularly early on, noting that the previous time we saw an 'under' result in this series, the next game (Game 2) saw a whopping 130 points scored in the first half. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 16-4 in the first half with the Warriors playing on the road with an opportunity to close out a playoff series, with that spot producing an average first half total of 116.0 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the first half 'over' go 22-10 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average first half total of 115.5 points. Take the first half over (10*). |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Fever v. Sky OVER 164.5 | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Chicago at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in Chicago's most recent game as it won by an 82-73 score in Washington on Sunday. The 'under' has now cashed in the Sky's last two games and has gone 3-0-1 in their last four overall. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Despite the 'under' streak, the Sky are 'filling it up' offensively and should only get stronger now that Kahleah Copper has returned and shook off the rust with a 5-of-11 shooting performance on Sunday. Chicago has knocked down 36, 31, 28, 30 and 34 field goals in five games this season. Indiana doesn't figure to offer much resistance. The Fever have allowed 31+ made field goals in six of their eight games this season. They were locked down in a rematch with Connecticut on Sunday, scoring only 70 points but I'm confident we'll see them improve on that number here. Note that Chicago is in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after holding two terrific offensive teams in Seattle and Washington to 74 and 73 points. Note that it did allow 70+ field goal attempts in those two contests. Indiana may be without NaLyssa Smith again on Tuesday but that's been factored into this total. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been incredibly low-scoring - precisely what we expected after both teams got involved in far higher-scoring series' than anticipated in the opening round of the playoffs. I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday as we watch a pivotal Game 4 unfold. Note that the 'under' is 17-6 with the Canes coming off a loss by 2+ goals against a divisional opponent over the last three seasons and 22-11 when playing on the road off a loss of any margin against a divisional foe over the last two campaigns. Both situations are in play here after Sunday's 3-1 loss in Game 3 (we won with the Rangers in that contest). The Rangers, meanwhile, have been a streaky 'under' team all season, with the 'under' going 31-18 when coming off an 'under' result, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 when the Blueshirts play at home off a home victory, resulting in just 4.9 total goals on average in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-23-22 | Sparks v. Aces UNDER 170 | 76-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have seen the 'over' cash in consecutive games but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Sin City. The pace hasn't necessarily been there in the Sparks last two contests, with both teams getting off fewer than 70 field goal attempts on both occasions. The Sparks, however, shot the lights out in both games, knocking down 32 field goals in each. Here, I expect Los Angeles to face some resistance, noting that the Sparks - while known for their offensive prowess - have done a nice job defensively, holding three of their last four opponents to fewer than 30 made field goals and all four of those opponents to 70 or fewer field goal attempts. We've cashed some 'over' tickets in games involving the Sparks this season, noting that we expected them to struggle defensively out of the gate. Lately, we have seen them do a better job though, as they've limited four straight opponents to 70 or fewer FG attempts after allowing Indiana to get off 78 back in their second game of the season. While Las Vegas averages 91.7 points per game this season, it's worth noting that number drops to 83.9 points after scoring 90+ points in consecutive games over the last two seasons (23-game sample size), as is the case here. Also note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Sparks coming off four consecutive losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 135.7 points. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in each of the first three games of this series, not to mention the first half 'over' as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. The last two games have seen these two teams take turns shooting the lights out. First it was a three-point barrage from the Celtics down 1-0 in the series in Game 2 and then an early all-out shooting assault from the Heat back in Boston in Game 3. Now, however, both teams are dealing with some key injuries with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum among those getting banged-up in Game 3 on Saturday. Both will likely play on Monday but whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate. Note that the three regular season meetings between these two teams totalled just 84, 99 and 105 first half points - all staying 'under' the number we're dealing with tonight. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season, leading to an average first half total of just 98.3 points. The Heat have posted a very long-term 104-146 o/u mark in the first half across all playoff games over the last number of years. Take the first half under (10*). |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 219 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring affair on Friday. Dallas got off just 78 field goal attempts in that game - the third time in the last five games it has been held to 78 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Golden State shot the lights out for the second straight game; an identical 46-of-82 shooting to what we saw in Game 1 in fact. Note that the Mavs have only allowed consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals once previously in these playoffs. In their next game they held the Suns to just 94 points in a game that didn't even reach 200 (103-94 final score at home in Game 3 last round). While the Warriors do average 40 made field goals per contest on the road this season, they'll face a tough challenge here with Dallas allowing just 38-of-84 shooting on its home floor. Likewise, the Mavs average 39 made field goals on 85 attempts at home this season but will be up against a Warriors team that can play some defense as well, yielding their opponents just 39 made field goals on 86 attempts per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 72-48 with the Warriors playing on the road off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-1 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110+ points this season, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Flames v. Oilers UNDER 7 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold as the series shifts to Edmonton for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Flames coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 3+ goals this season. Likewise, the 'under' is 20-11 with the Oilers following the same scenario. The 'under' is also 18-9 with the Oilers playing at home off a road victory by 2+ goals over the last two seasons. The 'under' is actually a long-term 42-25 in the last 67 instalments of the 'Battle of Alberta' here in Edmonton. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Sky v. Mystics OVER 157.5 | Top | 82-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
WNBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Mystics gritty road win over Atlanta two nights ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as they return home to host Chicago on Sunday. The Mystics were without Elena Delle Donne for Friday's game as she had a scheduled night off as she eases her way back from injury. She should be back in the lineup on Sunday to boost a deep Mystics offense that scored 78 points on Friday despite getting off just 55 field goal attempts and shooting a miserable 3-of-18 from three-point range. Note that Washington has put up 84+ points in all three home games this season. Chicago is coming off a low-scoring contest against Seattle, falling by a 74-71 score. The Sky have had plenty of time to get over that setback on Wednesday and I fully expect a stronger offensive performance here. The extra days off should have certainly served Allie Quigley well. The Sky sharp-shooter has been easing her way back into game action, contributing in just 15 points in 43 minutes of action in her two games back in the lineup. Candace Parker has been held to exactly 11 points in three straight games after scoring 21 in Chicago's season-opener. Like Quigley, I expect Parker to make a more significant contribution against the Mystics on Sunday. The Mystics were fortunate to give up 'only' 73 points in Friday's win considering Atlanta was able to get off 66 field goal attempts. Expect Chicago to improve on that number here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-21-22 | Lynx v. Wings UNDER 164 | 78-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter Saturday's contest off high-scoring affairs - in the case of Minnesota, consecutive high-scoring affairs. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Lynx have shot incredibly well in splitting the first two games of their three-game road trip, knocking down exactly 31 field goals and scoring exactly 87 points in each of those contests. Now, however, playing their third game in five nights in three different cities, I look for some regression. The Wings allowed 73 field goal attempts in Phoenix two nights ago but still prevailed by a 94-84 score. Note that Dallas had previously limited each of its first four opponents to 66 or fewer field goal attempts. For their part, the Lynx have held all six of their opponents to 70 or fewer FG attempts this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 with the Lynx playing on the road after consecutive games that totalled 165+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Sparks v. Storm OVER 157 | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in Seattle's most recent game but did cash the 'over' the last time Los Angeles took the floor on Wednesday night against Minnesota. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair and we're being afforded a very reasonable total, thanks in large part to the Storm coming off consecutive 'under' results. Seattle welcomed superstar Breanna Stewart back to the floor on Wednesday and she made an immediate impact, scoring 13 points on 5-of-12 shooting. I certainly expect a bigger contribution from her on Friday. Seattle has yet to really bust out offensively this season but it's coming. The Storm have gotten off 70+ field goal attempts in four straight games. In the only game where they didn't reach that mark they knocked down 35-of-66 field goal attempts in a season-opening 97-74 rout of Minnesota here at home. On the flip side, opponents have been 'filling it up' against Seattle so far this season, knocking down 31, 30, 36, 26 and 30 field goals in its first five games. Speaking of 'filling it up', the Sparks have allowed the opposition to make good on 36, 29, 24, 28 and 31 field goals in their first five games, allowing 77+ points in each contest. That's not surprising as I had Los Angeles pegged as one of the league's weakest defensive teams - at least early in the season. The good news is, the Sparks offense does appear much-improved, largely due to the acquisition of Liz Cambage. They bounced back from a subpar shooting effort against an elite and highly-motivated Connecticut squad, scoring 84 points on 32-of-67 shooting against Minnesota on Wednesday. They would likely prefer to turn this game into a bit of a slugfest but I expect them to get dragged into a track meet (by WNBA standards at least). Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 214.5 | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Friday. While the Mavericks were blown out by 25 points in that game, the pace was actually probably to their liking. They limited the Warriors to just 82 field goal attempts in that game (I realize the lopsided nature of the contest had something to do with that) but Golden State quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 46 of those attempts. One thing was evident in that game - this series isn't likely to be the same up-tempo matchup that we saw from the Warriors and Grizzlies last round. In that series, the Warriors got off 90+ field goal attempts in four of six games while allowing Memphis to attempt 91 or more field goals in all six contests. The Mavs, despite trailing by a considerable margin most of the way, only attempted 86 field goals in Game 1 of this series - pretty much par for the course as they've averaged 84 FG attempts per game on the road this season. While we can anticipate Dallas shooting better than it did in the series-opener (it made good on just 31 field goals), how much better remains to be seen as it did put up only 87 points on Wednesday despite a whopping 48 three-point attempts (it made 11) and 21 trips to the free throw line (five more than the Warriors). Perhaps a more conservative offensive gameplan will serve it well here, as I look for Dallas to lean on a much better defensive performance than we saw in the opener. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they scored 90 or fewer points over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 204.5 points. The 'under' is also 24-11 with Dallas seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 212.0 points. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday. Not surprisingly, things have tightened up considerably following a high-scoring opening round. This series is no exception as Game 1 produced just two goals in regulation time two nights ago. I expect more of the same on Friday. Carolina is as stingy as it gets at home, allowing just 2.1 goals per game with the 'under' going 26-18-2 in Raleigh this season. While the Rangers weren't able to grab a win in Game 1, it had to be encouraging to hold the Hurricanes to just a single goal in regulation time after struggling mightily to keep the puck out of their own net against Pittsburgh last round. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 40-23 with the Rangers playing on the road off a road loss against a division opponent, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 17-7 with the Rangers on the road with the total set at 5.5 goals this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals. Carolina has seen the 'under' go 29-16 at home in division games over the same stretch, with that situation producing an average total of 5.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Mystics v. Dream UNDER 157.5 | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Dream have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on Friday night in Atlanta. Note that the Dream's last two games have come against a perennially-rebuilding Indiana squad that simply hasn't shown much cohesiveness defensively in the early going this season. It's a different story on Friday as the Dream will welcome the Washington Mystics, who are looking like an elite defensive squad in the early going this season. The Mystics have held three of their last four opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. They'll need to keep it up here as their offense could lag with Elena Delle-Donne sitting out and Myisha Hines-Allen questionable to play after being forced to leave their last game due to injury. While Washington's offense has been sharp this season, the pace hasn't really been there as it has gotten off fewer than 70 field goal attempts in four of five games - not surprisingly the 'under' has cashed in four of those five contests. It's an even more magnified story for the Dream as they've hoisted up 65 or fewer field goal attempts in four of five games. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Levante v. Rayo Vallecano UNDER 3 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Rayo Vallecano and Levante at 3 pm et on Friday. With their places already assured ahead of Friday's La Liga finale, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Levante would be well-advised to play cautiously here, noting that it has failed to record a clean sheet in any of its last seven matches, giving up the first goal in six of those contests. The good news is, Rayo Vallecano isn't all that imposing offensively and enters this match having gone winless across its last four contests. Note also that Vallecano has seen six of its last eight contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals. It has enjoyed a successful campaign here at home this season, where it actually sits 10th in the La Liga table when only considering home matches. There, we've seen it yield just 18 goals in 18 matches - an impressive accomplishment in its own right. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-19-22 | Wings v. Mercury OVER 161.5 | 94-84 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter Thursday's showdown in Phoenix off consecutive 'under' results. I like the bounce-back spot for both offenses here. The Wings roster is loaded with shooters but the best of the bunch is Arike Ogunbowale and she's coming off a miserable performance against Washington. The Wings shot just 25-of-61 in that loss - which was a revenge game for Washington after Dallas defeated it on the road back in the second game of the season. We saw a similarly poor offensive effort from Dallas back in its season-opener against Atlanta but it successfully bounced back with a 94-point explosion against the aformentioned Mystics in its next game. The problem for the Wings - a common problem in recent years - has been slowing down opposing offenses. Dallas' opponents have been 'filling it up', knocking down 31, 29 and 34 field goals over its last three contests. That's despite the fact that the Wings opponents this season haven't really been pushing the pace. I expect Phoenix to do so on Thursday, however, as it looks to respond at home off a double-digit loss in Las Vegas. The Mercury made good on 36 and 33 field goals in their first three games but were bottled up in their last two contests, knocking down just 26 field goals on each occasion. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 9-1 with the Mercury coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 176.5 points. The 'over' is also 10-2 with Phoenix coming off a double-digit loss over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 176.5 points. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 208 | 127-102 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series as the oddsmakers quite simply missed the mark with a total just north of 200 points. Now I believe the betting marketplace has overreacted the other way, pushing this total closer to 210 points. Game 1 saw undisciplined defensive efforts from both teams, leading to a combined 66 free throw attempts. I expect nothing of the sort in Game 2 on Thursday. Both teams are fully capable of playing tough defense without needing to foul on every other possession. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring contest in the series-opener, noting that the Celtics got off just 79 field goal attempts while the Heat got off only 80. Boston has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in three straight and five of its last seven games overall. On the flip side, however, the C's have held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals in eight straight games. You would have to go all the way back to Game 1 of the playoffs against Brooklyn to find the last time a C's opponent knocked down more than 41 field goals. The Heat have been even tougher defensively. They've limited nine consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in six of those nine games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Sky v. Storm OVER 159.5 | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Chicago's season-opening overtime loss to Los Angeles. Since then, the Sky have posted consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold here as they continue their three-game road trip in Seattle on Wednesday. The Storm have been sorely missing Breanna Stewart, among others. While Stewart is unlikely to play on Wednesday (she's still in Covid protocol) they should have Epiphanny Prince back on the court. Coming off three straight losses, the Storm are desperate to get back on track here. The good news is, the pace has been there for a potential quick turn-around, noting that they've gotten off 76, 71 and 77 field goal attempts over the last three games. The shots simply haven't been falling. While Chicago is coming off consecutive wins, it hasn't exactly been playing lock-down defense in the early going this season. Its most recent opponent, the Minnesota Lynx, attempted only 59 field goals but still scored 78 points, shooting better than 49% from the field. I do think the Storm can find a way to push the pace a little more in this one, putting pressure on the Sky defense. Offensively, Chicago has been getting production from up and down its lineup. With that being said, Candace Parker has yet to really get going while Allie Quigley just made her season debut last time out and should improve on her 3-of-8, seven-point performance here. Despite having yet to get off more than 70 FG attempts in a game, Chicago has been filling up boxscores, making good on 36, 31 and 28 field goals in its first three games. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect this series to play out anything like these two teams' high-scoring opening round series'. We inexplicably saw 7+ goals in all seven games between the Rangers and Penguins while the Canes saw six of their seven games against the Bruins total at least six goals. I expect the scoring to settle down considerably in the round two opener between these two squads on Wednesday, noting that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Rangers coming off an overtime win this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is 28-16 with the Canes playing at home against division opponents over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.2 goals. The last time these two teams faced each other here in Raleigh, the Rangers skated to a low-scoring 2-0 victory back on March 30th. The 'under' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Lynx v. Sparks OVER 160 | Top | 87-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. As a perennial title contender, the Lynx certainly aren't accustomed to long losing streaks. They check into this game off four consecutive losses to open the season though. You would have to go all the way back to their season-opener against Seattle to find the last time they posted an 'over' result. I look for that to change here. Minnesota has seemingly gotten stronger with each passing game from an offensive standpoint and could potentially get Kayla McBride back in the lineup to give it an additional boost here. The Lynx have scored 74+ points in three of their four games this season and got to 78 points last time out despite getting off only 59 field goal attempts. We can anticipate the pace ticking up in this one as Los Angeles has yielded its opponents 70 (aided by overtime), 78, 69 and 70 field goal attempts in its first four games this season. The Sparks have been fortunate that their opponents haven't done a good job of taking advantage of all of those scoring opportunities - I think that's had more to do with shaky early season shooting rather than anything L.A. is doing defensively. Playing their fourth straight road game to open the campaign, it wasn't all that surprising to see the Sparks struggle offensively in Connecticut on Saturday. Off that 60-point performance I look for them to bounce back in their home-opener noting that Lynx opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 35, 29, 31 and 28 field goals through four games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-16-22 | Twins v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring series finales on getaway day yesterday but I look for a different story to unfold at the Coliseum on Monday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 13-3 with the Twins coming off consecutive games in which they scored three runs or less over the last two seasons, with that situation resulting in an average total of 12.1 runs. In that situation this season, we've seen the Twins average 6.1 runs per game with an average total of 8.9 runs (nine-game sample size). The A's bats have been quiet but they should have ample opportunity to bust out here as they face Twins starter Chris Archer pitching on four days' rest. Archer has seen five of his six starts this season total at least eight runs. He's been tagged for at least one home run in five straight starts and checks in having allowed six earned runs on 10 hits over just seven innings of work in his last two outings. The A's will counter with rookie Zach Logue. He'll also be pitching on just four days' rest. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings but that came against the light-hitting Tigers. This will actually be his second start against Minnesota this season which I believe gives the Twins hitters an advantage. They reached him for a pair of home runs over five innings back on May 6th. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-16-22 | Fiorentina v. Sampdoria UNDER 2.75 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sampdoria and Fiorentina at 12:30 pm et on Monday. We cashed an 'under' play in a match involving Fiorentina last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. I like the setup in this one as Fiorentina sits in seventh place in the Serie A table, currently in line to qualify for Conference League play, but tied point-wise with eighth-place Atlanta. This is Fiorentina's match in hand. It will certainly want to come away with at least a point here but Sampdoria has proven to be a 'tough out' at home, with just a -6 goal differential. Fiorentina has been rather punchless away from home, sitting just 12th in the table when factoring in only those 'away' matches, where it owns a -7 goal differential. Note that Sampdoria is just four points clear of relegation in the Serie A table and could certainly use at least a point from this contest. It has seen six of its last seven matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Fiorentina will need to be careful here noting that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches. This has generally been a high-scoring series with both sides finding the back of the net in each of the last 10 meetings. I believe that is only serving to provide us value with the 'under' here with that I consider to be distinctly different circumstances than we've seen in recent clashes. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Stars v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
First Round Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. We've already seen the three games played in Calgary in this series total just 3, 1 and 4 goals and I anticipate more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday. Nothing has come all that easy for the Flames in this series, despite the fact that they've outplayed the Stars most of the way. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has stood on his head at times and as a result Calgary has managed to find the back of the net just 12 times through six games. The good news is, the Flames have been ultra-stingy defensively here at home all season, giving up only 2.3 goals per contest. Scoring has been an issue for the Stars on the road all season, averaging just 2.5 goals per game. When playing on the road following a home game over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), they've averaged just 2.2 goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Dream v. Fever UNDER 161 | 85-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Indiana at 3 pm et on Sunday. The Dream got crushed 96-73 by the high-flying Aces two nights ago but noting that they had held Dallas and Los Angeles to just 59 and 75 points in their first two games, I do look for them to come up with a positive response defensively on Sunday. Indiana stunned New York 92-86 in overtime on Friday. Keep in mind, the Fever scored just 76 points in regulation time in that contest. They've been held to 77 or fewer points in regulation time in three of their first four games this season, which is to be expected given their youthful roster. I'm not anticipating a great deal of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Red Sox v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. You would have to go back five games to find the Red Sox last 'under' result (with a couple of 'pushes' in the mix since). Last night we saw the Sox explode for 11 runs in a lopsided victory and now they'll look to complete the sweep on Sunday. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Rangers having allowed 7+ runs in consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 6.7 runs in that situation. Rangers starter Martin Perez has turned back the clock this season, posting a 2.10 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the course of six starts this season. Austin Davis will get a spot start for the Red Sox. He isn't likely to work deep into the game but that's fine for our purposes as the Boston bullpen has posted a collective 1.98 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Detroit at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. Detroit is on an incredible run of 'under' results right now but I'll go the contrarian route and call for a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Sunday. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Orioles having scored three runs or less in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 12.0 runs in that spot. Sunday's starter for the O's, Tyler Wells, has been awful in three road starts this season, posting an 8.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has been terrific this season but after going seven innings last time out and now starting on just four days' rest, I'm not anticipating a peak performance from him here. Note that the Tigers have seen an average total of 9.6 runs scored after a game in which their bullpen worked 6+ innings over the last three seasons (44-game sample size), as is the case here. Take the over (4*). |
|||||||
05-14-22 | Sparks v. Sun OVER 157 | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the Sparks most recent game as they fell by a 77-75 score in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as they take on the Connecticut Sun on Saturday. Connecticut was stunned in a road loss in New York to open the season. The Sun looked out of sorts for much of that contest but should be much sharper here, and that should start with a strong offensive performance against what I consider to be one of the weaker defensive teams in the league in Los Angeles. The Sparks benefited from the Dream failing to take advantage of their scoring opportunities last time out (Atlanta shot 35% from the field) but isn't likely to be so fortunate against a first-rate Sun squad that has had a week off to prepare. I do like what I've seen from the L.A. offense in the early going with Liz Cambage obviously adding a much-needed dimension down low. This is a much deeper Sparks squad than we've seen in years' past and I'm confident we will see them bounce back following a poor shooting performance last time out (they were playing their third road game in six nights). Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 218 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Wednesday but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 6 on Friday. Here, we'll note that Memphis has posted a 5-16 o/u record when coming off a win by 30+ points in the long-term picture, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have now gotten off 91+ field goal attempts in all five games in this series but I believe this is the game where that tide turns, noting that Ja Morant remains sidelined and the Warriors will be intent on putting their foot down and wrapping this series up on their home floor. Keep in mind, Golden State has held opponents to just 37-of-87 shooting on average here at home this season. The Warriors have now allowed Memphis to knock down 40+ field goals in three straight games but that's their longest such streak since the first week of March. Again, I look for them to make amends here. The 'under' is 25-16 with the Warriors listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, which is the situation here at the time of writing, leading to an average total of just 214.2 points. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 211.5 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The last two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total and we were on that play in each contest. Here, I'll go the other way, however, as the scene shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 6 on Friday night. Note that the Bucks have allowed the Celtics to make good on 42 field goals in each of the last two games. We haven't seen them allow 40+ made field goals in more than two consecutive games since back in March. On the flip side, Milwaukee has gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in four of five games in this series. With that being said, it has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games. That speaks to the effectiveness of the Celtics defense and we should see that again here as Boston faces elimination for the first time in these playoffs. Note that the 'under' is 38-23 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. While the last two games in this series have been reasonably high-scoring, I still don't think anything is coming easy for either team offensively with most shots contested and four of five games in the series seeing one, if not both teams held to 10 or fewer made three-pointers. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a very low-scoring Game 4 between these two teams as Golden State prevailed by a 101-98 score (we won with the Grizzlies plus the points). I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Memphis for Game 5 - with the Grizz facing elimination. Note that Memphis has now been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in six straight games, its longest such streak of the entire season (previous was five). I do think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies break out of their funk here, even without Ja Morant. Note that Memphis has had no shortage of scoring opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91, 92 and 96 field goal attempts. The shots quite simply haven't been falling. Here, however, I expect to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown defensively as they know this series is all but wrapped up (especially with Ja Morant all but ruled out for the playoffs). Note that the Grizzlies have posted impressive offensive numbers all season at home, averaging 44-of-94 shooting and they're certainly accustomed to playing without Ja Morant as he's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. Of course, the Warriors have had their way with the Grizzlies defense in this series. They made good on just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in Game 4 but are just one game removed from knocking down 53 field goals in a 142-point outburst in Game 3. In the first two games here in Memphis they got off 93 and 95 FG attempts, hitting 40 or more of them in both contests. While two of the last three games in this series have stayed 'under' the total, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made here. Consider the last matchup here in Memphis - Game 2 of this series - saw a closing total of 227.5. You would have to go all the way back to April 2nd and 3rd to find the last time the Warriors saw consecutive games stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Game 5 often serves as the pivotal game in a series. In this particular case, it could bring an end to the series as the Penguins look to eliminate the Rangers in unceremonious fashion at Madison Square Garden. This series hasn't gone the way most expected. The four regular season matchups between these two teams produced just 1, 6, 5 and 3 goals. We've yet to see a game in this playoff series stay 'under' seven goals. I expect that to change with the Rangers facing elimination on Wednesday, however. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-8 with the Penguins playing on the road after consecutive wins by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 28-15 with the Rangers seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.9 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 26-11 when those two losses saw the opponent score 3+ goals, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of only 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-11-22 | Sparks v. Dream UNDER 161.5 | Top | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Sparks season-opening 98-91 overtime win in Chicago but also cashed the 'under' in Atlanta's only previous game - a 66-59 victory in Dallas. Here, I believe we're working with an inflated total, largely due to Los Angeles' previous two games finding their way 'over' the total. The Sparks have shot exceptionally well in their first two games but I question whether they'll keep it up for a third consecutive road game to open the campaign. Liz Cambage has given the offense a big boost but the Dream to have plenty of bodies to throw at her and perhaps limit her effectiveness from the field. While the Dream were victorious in their season-opener, there were certainly signs that their offense will remain a work-in-progress. They knocked down just 20-of-63 field goal attempts against what will likely be a mediocre Wings defense. The fact that highly-touted draft pick Rhyne Howard led the team in scoring was encouraging but she had just 16 points. A top prospect from last year's draft class, Aari McDonald, continued to struggle, failing to knock down any of her three field goal attempts while scoring just one point in 17 minutes. The 'under' cashed in two of three meetings between these two teams last season. The only matchup that went 'over' the total still reached just 165 points and that was thanks only to both teams getting into the 80's in terms of FG attempts, something I don't anticipate seeing here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Astros v. Twins OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
American League Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off a string of low-scoring games. That doesn't mean we'll see the same type of contest play out on Tuesday in Minnesota, however. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-14 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 9.8 runs in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 207-160 with Houston playing on the road after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games, which is also the case here. As for Minnesota, it has seen the 'over' go 12-3 after plating four runs or less in four consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 11.0 runs scored in that spot. While we do have a fine pitching matchup here with Justin Verlander going up against Joe Ryan, I'm willing to bet on the bats waking from their slumber following a much-needed off day on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Bruins exploded for nine goals in Games 3 and 4 of this series, evening up proceedings at two games apiece. That was at home though. Now they go back on the road, where they average less than 3.0 goals per game this season and scored just three goals in Games 1 and 2 combined. The Hurricanes have been incredibly stingy at home this season, allowing just 2.1 goals per game in Raleigh. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 24-18-1 here in Carolina. With all of that being said, we're still working with a '6' here as all four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. I expect that to change on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Bruins having scored 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 16-6 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three contests over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. While this playoff series has been high-scoring, it's worth noting that the previous three meetings between these two teams in Carolina all totalled four goals or less, including a 3-0 Canes victory earlier this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics OVER 163.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Washington at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Mystics first two games this season while the Aces are coming off an 'under' result of their own on Sunday against Seattle. I expect a different story to unfold as these 2-0 teams square off in the nation's capital on Tuesday. Note that all three of last year's meetings between these squads topped the total we're working with here, with the low-water mark being 167 points. The 'over' is a long-term 68-30 with the Aces coming off a home win over a division opponent, as is the case here following Sunday's victory over the Storm. The Aces also check in allowing 82.5 points per game when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons (11-game sample size), which is also the situation here. If the Mystics are to approach the 80-point mark here, you have to figure Las Vegas won't be far behind, noting that it is listed as a road favorite in this contest and has put up 106 and 85 points without hardly breaking a sweat in its first two games this season. For its part, Washington has scored 84 and 78 points despite getting off fewer than 70 field goal attempts in each of its first two contests, a number I expect it to eclipse here with Las Vegas having yielded its first two opponents 73 and 76 FG attempts. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. 'Unders' have ruled the day for both of these teams lately but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Both starting pitchers will be facing their opponent for the second time in less than a week. While that's not generally a problem for the better pitchers in baseball, I don't feel that Elieser Hernandez of Humberto Castellanos fall into that category. Hernandez has had a miserable time locating his pitches in the early part of the season, issuing eight walks and giving up 27 hits in 24 1/3 innings of work. The D'Backs chased him after scoring five earned runs in four innings last week. Castellanos is off to an alright start for Arizona this season but I believe regression will soon be coming. He hasn't allowed a home run in 16 2/3 innings pitched this season after giving up six over his final five starts last season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 11-1 with the D'Backs coming off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 12.6 runs. Over that same stretch, the 'over' has gone 37-23 with Arizona coming off a win, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 9.8 runs. Take the over (5*). |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners offense has run dry lately but off their first victory in a while, I think we'll see a reversal of course here on Monday. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 9-0 with Seattle having scored two runs or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 11.0 runs in that situation. The Phillies meanwhile have seen the 'over' go a long-term 145-106 with an average total of 9.3 runs produced when coming off a loss against a division opponent in which they scored one run or less, which is also the situation here. Expect some offensive fireworks on Monday night in the Pacific Northwest. Take the over (4*). |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Rays v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Rays were involved in a low-scoring game in Seattle yesterday, eventually falling by a 2-1 score in extra innings. The Angels, meanwhile, staged a late rally to walk it off against the Nationals. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Rays playing on the road following a game that totalled four runs or less over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 10.4 runs. The Angels have seen the 'over' cash at a 35-22 clip when playing as a home favorite over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 9.8 runs. Better still, the 'over' is 37-23 with Los Angeles facing left-handed starting pitching over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 9.8 runs. The Halos are off to an incredible start against left-handers this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game with the 'over' going 4-3-1. Take the over (5*). |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While we didn't get the result we wanted, missing with the 'over', the pace was absolutely there in Game 3 of this series on Saturday with both teams setting series-highs in terms of field goal attempts (Milwaukee had 99 and Boston 87). That was precisely what we were projecting noting how fast-paced and high scoring the two regular season meetings were here in Milwaukee. I expect more of the same on Monday, but this time I look for both teams to do a much better job of making good on their scoring opportunities. Boston in particular has struggled shooting the ball so far in this series, knocking down 28, 38 and 32 field goals through the first three games. Keep in mind, the Celtics average 41 made field goals per contest on the road this season and knocked down 42 in both road games last round. For its part, Milwaukee also averages 41 made field goals per game at home this season and has connected on 43, 49 and 40 field goals in three previous home matchups with Boston. Here, we'll note that despite Saturday's 'under' result, the 'over' remains 33-21 with the Celtics playing in an 'underdog' role over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 225.1 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | 2-7 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Monday. This series has been much higher-scoring than expected with the first three games totalling 7, 7 and 11 goals. Saturday's Game 3 here in Pittsburgh broke wide open early with the Penguins scoring four times in the first period alone (they led 4-1 entering the second period). I'm certain that neither team has been pleased with the way they've played defensively in this series. Keep in mind, the Rangers give up just 2.6 goals per game on the season while the Pens check in yielding an average of 2.8 goals per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Rangers playing on the road off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of only 4.9 goals. Meanwhile, the Penguins have seen the 'under' go 15-5 when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over a division opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals in that spot. Interestingly, the regular season saw three of four meetings between these two teams total five goals or less, including a 1-0 result in favor of the Penguins here in Pittsburgh. Remember, we saw a stretch of 3+ periods without a goal back in the series-opener last week before the Pens prevailed in triple-overtime. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Roma v. Fiorentina UNDER 2.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Fiorentina and Roma at 2:45 pm et on Monday. With very little separating these two teams in the Seria A table and both on either side of the coveted top-seven places, I'm anticipating a cagey affair on Monday in Florence. Note that Fiorentina enters this match having lost four consecutive matches so it is in desperate need of taking something, anything away from this clash on Monday. Roma on the other hand will be looking to keep its three-match undefeated streak intact. I do feel that Fiorentina is a much better defensive squad that it has shown over its last four contests, noting that it has allowed a grand total of 20 goals in 17 home matches this season. Having conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches, I fully expect Fiorentina to take a fairly cautious approach for much of this one, especially when you consider it has dropped five straight meetings with Roma. This has been a relatively high-scoring series with six of the last seven meetings going 'over' 2.5 total goals but I think we have a different set of circumstances here, noting as I did earlier that there's much at stake here with Roma sitting in a tie for 6th/7th in the Serie A table and Fiorentina just three points back in eighth. Fiorentina actually ranks fourth in Serie A when only factoring in 'home' matches with an impressive +14 goal differential. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Storm v. Aces OVER 175.5 | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams got off to incredible starts to the season with Seattle registering a 97-74 win over Minnesota and Las Vegas cruising to a 106-88 rout of Phoenix. While both of those games sailed 'over' the total, the fact is both games could have been even higher-scoring but the opposition simply didn't take advantage of the bevy of scoring opportunities they were presented with. Seattle allowed Minnesota to get off a whopping 79 field goal attempts while Las Vegas yielded Phoenix 73 FG attempts. In what shapes up as another fast-paced game between two of the league's elite teams, I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Boston at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. This is obviously the pivotal game in this series so far and while it's been a relatively high-scoring matchup to this point with all three games finding their way 'over' 5.5 goals, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Bruins coming off three losses in their last four games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. The 'over' has now cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams - the longest such streak in the series since 2013-2014. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Dream v. Wings UNDER 160.5 | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday. Two teams coming off disappointing 2021 campaigns will look to get the 2022 season off on the right foot on Saturday. I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks. Dallas looks good on paper but doesn't that always seem to be the case? While this looks like a layup out of the gate with the Dream coming off an 8-24 season, I do think that Atlanta can potentially slow the Wings offense - which runs through Arike Ogunbowale - in this one. Note that the Dream did lead the league in steals a year ago and can be a frustrating team to play against if nothing else. The question is whether the Dream can keep up offensively. They landed the number one overall pick in the draft by trading up, selecting Rhyne Howard. While there's a lot of optimism around her and Aari McDonald (who was somewhat disappointing in her rookie campaign a year ago) it's likely going to take some time for that duo to get in sync. Atlanta is one of the smallest teams in the league so unless the shots are falling here on opening night, things could get ugly. I'm not particularly high on either of these squads and feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 212.5 | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel the total is moving in the wrong direction here, based solely on the low-scoring outcomes we saw in Games 1 and 2. The pace was actually there for an 'over' result in Game 1 but neither team shot the ball well - the Celtics in particular. The second game saw the Bucks struggle shooting the ball with Boston 'managing' the game from start to finish. Here in Game 3, I look for a different story to unfold. While the Celtics are a terrific defensive team, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Bucks, prior to Game 2, had little trouble finding their opportunities offensively against the C's this season. In five previous matchups they got off 90+ field goal attempts each and every time. I do think we'll see the Celtics hold up their end of the bargain here in Game 3 as well though, noting that the Bucks have allowed opponents to knock down an average of 41-of-91 field goal attempts here at home this season. The previous two meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee this season reached 230 and 248 points. Take the over (7*). |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. The postponement of last night's game works in our favor as far as this play is concerned. Kevin Gausman had made his last two starts on just four days' rest and was slated to do so again last night. With that game being postponed, he'll now be able to pitch on a full five days' rest on Saturday. Note that the last time he pitched on at least five days' rest he turned in his best outing of the young season, allowing just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. In two previous road starts this season he has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. It's a similar story for Guardians ace Shane Bieber. He hasn't started a game since April 30th so I'm confident we'll see his best stuff here. In his lone previous home start he gave up only one earned run over six innings against the White Sox. He's made just one previous home start against the Blue Jays, allowing two earned runs over six innings back in 2019. The night off on Friday certainly helps an overworked Blue Jays bullpen that hadn't enjoyed a day off since April 18th. Note that the Jays relief corps has posted a collective 1.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians bullpen owns a 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. We saw the Cardinals continue their offensive surge in last night's series opener here in San Francisco. The Giants didn't hold up their end of the bargain, however, plating just one run. They've run into some very tough pitching over the last few games but considering they did scratch out 10 hits (and leave 10 men on base) in last night's game, I do think a breakout performance is imminent. Note that the Cards have allowed double-digit hit totals in two of their last three games and I expect a similar outcome tonight. On the flip side, the Giants pitching staff has struggled lately and that's putting it mildly. They've allowed 22, 11, 12, 5, 11 and 12 hits over their last six games and now turn to a struggling Alex Cobb on Friday. Cobb turned in about as bad an outing as a pitcher can have at the big league level last time out, allowing five runs before exiting with only two outs in the first inning. While Cards starter Jordan Hicks has a promising future, he continues to only make brief appearances in a starting role. That leaves a Cards bullpen that has been anything but invincible, recording a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over their last seven games. Expect plenty of offense in this game tonight. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Phoenix and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. At some point in this series, I do expect both the Suns and Mavs to flip the switch and limit the scoring with tough defensive play that we know they're both capable of. I'm just not convinced it happens in the early stages of Game 3 on Friday. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. They've taken it to another level over their last three games, making good on 45, 46 and 49 field goals. We've certainly seen hot starts from them as well, scoring 51+ points in nine of their last 10 games overall, despite missing Devin Booker for a few of those. Scoring hasn't really been a big issue for the Mavs in this series. They've put up 114 and 109 points despite being limited to 85 and 79 field goal attempts through the first two games. Note that the Suns do allow 40 made field goals per contest away from home this season. We can certainly expect Dallas to force the issue early in this contest as it looks to finally put Phoenix back on its heels and ultimately get back in this series. Here, we'll note that the first half 'over' has gone 40-20 with the Mavs coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average first half total of 115.6 points. Take the first half over (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Sparks v. Sky OVER 155.5 | 98-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8 pm et on Friday. All three of last year's meetings between these two teams saw closing totals higher than the number we're working with on Friday. Perhaps the oddsmakers are expecting the two teams to ease their way into the campaign but I'm not convinced that will be the case. After missing the playoffs last year, the Sparks will be determined to get off to a strong start this season. They made a big splash in the offseason, landing Liz Cambage from the Las Vegas Aces. The addition of sharp-shooter Chennedy Carter from Atlanta should pay immediate dividends as well. Keep in mind, despite the down season in 2021, the Sparks actually took all three meetings against the Sky. Chicago will likely once again be in the mix for a championship and playing with 'triple-revenge' should give the Sparks their best punch here, even if it is only game one of the season. The Sky barely broke a sweat in their two preseason games - both losses - but still scored 77 and 75 points. While the Sparks offense should be improved, their defense will remain a work-in-progress under head coach Derek Fisher. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (5*). |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Real Sociedad v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a rather cagey affair between these two La Liga sides on Friday in Valencia. Real Sociedad comes in having failed to record a victory in its last three matches. It still sits sixth in the La Liga table, with a four-point cushion over seventh-place Villarreal and a seven-point advantage on Athletic, which sits in eighth. There's no question Sociedad would like to claim all three points in this match but I don't believe it will come easy. Levante sits last in the La Liga table. It will undoubtedly take on a defensive form here noting that it has gone four matches without recording a clean sheet and eight contests without doing so in this particular series. The last two matches between these two squads have gone 1-0 to Sociedad. With Levante giving up the first goal in five of the last six meetings, I would anticipate it throwing everything it has at Sociedad early in this one in an effort to stem the tide. Note that as bad as Levante has been this season, it actually has a goal differential of just -5 at home, where it has conceded just over 1.6 goals per contest. Noting that Sociedad has seen less than 2.5 goals in six of its last seven matches, I believe both sides will be comfortable in a low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Arminia Bielefeld v. VfL Bochum OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vfl Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Bielefeld could desperately use the three points from this 'away' match on Friday as it currently sits six points back of 15th-place Hertha Berlin - a spot that would mean avoiding relegation. It has to feel it at least has a puncher's chance in this one, noting that Bochum is a middling Bundesliga side that has failed to deliver a victory in the last five meetings in this series. While eight of the last 10 matches between these two squads have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, I believe that's only serving to provide us with some value on the 'over' in this one. Keep in mind, Bochum has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet. Bielefeld has had a miserable time keeping the ball out of its own net, allowing the first goal in nine consecutive matches while going winless over that stretch. Bielefeld has managed to find a goal in three of its last five matches - in the only two contests where it didn't over that stretch, it allowed four. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-05-22 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL First Round Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel we're seeing an overreaction to a couple of things from Game 1 of this series, leading to plenty of '6's' on the board for Game 2. First of all, the series-opener was a high-scoring one, with seven goals scored, albeit in more than five periods of hockey. We certainly saw how things can tighten up, however, noting that there was just one goal scored in the first period and none in the third (or in the first or second overtime periods of course). Second, the Penguins were already down a goalie with Tristan Jarry on the shelf but Casey DeSmith was forced to leave Game 1 due to injury as well and his status is still up in the air for Game 2. Keep in mind, Louis Domingue stepped in and performed admirably, just as he has whenever he's been called upon this season, posting a .960 save percentage in three games, with the 'under' cashing in both of his previous starts. Rangers goaltender and likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin did not have a good Game 1. I expect him to bounce back here, however. He owns a .941 save percentage at home this season with the 'under' cashing in 19 of his 30 starts at Madison Square Garden. The 'under' checks in 12-4 with the Rangers playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.2 goals. The Penguins average an impressive 3.3 goals per game this season but that scoring average drops to 2.7 goals per contest over the last three seasons when they play on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-05-22 | Venezia v. Salernitana OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 106 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Salernitana and Venezia at 12 noon et on Thursday. In principle, I'm not convinced we should see totals set south of 3.0 goals in matches involving Venezia. It continues to bring up the rear in the Seria A table and has now conceded at least a goal in an incredible 23 consecutive matches. It has also gone winless in its last 10 Serie A tilts, carrying a streak of nine straight outright defeats. You have to think that this could potentially be the spot to break that skid, however, noting that Salernitana sits just four points ahead in the Serie A table, with an even worse goal margin of -42. It does check in undefeated across its last four contests but has also seen both teams find the back of the net in four of its last five overall. It's not as if this hasn't been a competitive series as each of the last three matches have been decided by a single goal with both teams scoring in all three of those contests. When they last met in October 2021, Venezia fell by a 2-1 score, thanks in large part to playing shorthanded following a red card in the 67th minute. With both sides extremely vulnerable at the back-end and with little reason to hold anything back up front, I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series proved to be relatively low-scoring with the Heat rolling to a 106-92 victory. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Miami's last four games but the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. Note that the Heat have gotten off 92+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games. The only contest where they didn't reach that number was Game 5 against Atlanta, a game that Jimmy Butler missed due to injury. With Philadelphia sagging defensively, yielding its opponents' at least 86 field goal attempts in five of its last six games (it allows just 84 FG attempts per game on the season), I look for Miami's offense to continue to surge here in Game 2. The question becomes whether the Joel Embiid-less 76ers can hold up their end of the bargain and help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. I believe they can. Note that Philadelphia still got to 92 points despite making good on just 34 field goals including just six made three-pointers in Game 1 of this series. The Sixers hoisted up just 79 FG attempts in the loss. I certainly anticipate them finding more scoring opportunities here, noting that Miami has allowed 45, 42, 45, 41, 41 and 31 made field goals (it allowed 94 points in the outlier - Game 5 against Atlanta last round) in its last six games following a win. While Joel Embiid's absence has to be considered, it is worth noting that the 76ers have averaged 115.7 points per game when coming off a game in which they scored 95 points or less over the last two seasons (15-game sample size). Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-04-22 | Manchester City v. Real Madrid OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Real Madrid and Manchester City at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I believe we're in for a real treat in the second leg of this epic Champions League semi-final showdown between Real Madrid and Manchester City on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg met expectations and then some as Man City prevailed by a 4-3 score on home soil. Here, I expect City and its oft-vulnerable back-end to have an extremely difficult time containing a Real Madrid offense that has absolutely rounded into form in recent months. Both of these teams are no strangers to high-scoring affairs. They both enter this match having seen each of their last five contests total at least three goals. I like the fact that Real Madrid needs to erase a one-goal deficit here at home while Man City will also be striving for goals having allowed a whopping three 'away' goals in the first leg. While Man City has won four consecutive meetings between these European powerhouses, you would have to go back six matches to find the last time it recorded a clean sheet against Real Madrid. For its part, Real Madrid hasn't held Man City off the scoresheet in any of the last four meetings between the two and in current form isn't the impenetrable defensive squad it once was. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Capitals v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Florida at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. You would have to go back nine meetings in this series to find the last time a game finished with fewer than seven total goals. I don't expect that to change in the opener of this first round series on Tuesday. The Capitals struggled offensively down the stretch but they were also without Alex Ovechkin for their last three contests. He is expected back in the lineup for Tuesday's contest. A bigger concern than the Caps recent offensive woes is their situation defensively and in goal. They allowed at least four goals in six of their last nine games down the stretch. Both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek struggled between the pipes. Now they have to face a Panthers squad that averaged 4.7 goals per game on home ice during the regular season. Florida will give its share of goals up as well though. The Panthers have allowed 2.9 goals per game at home this season and will have to contend with a Caps offense that averages an impressive 3.5 goals per contest on the road. The most recent meeting between these two teams went Florida's way by a 5-4 score. That's notable as the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Capitals seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 5+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Second Round First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We nailed our only first half total in the opening round of the playoffs. That play was on the 'over' in the first half of Game 1 between the Nets and Celtics. In my analysis of that play I noted that the Celtics have had a tendency to get involved in high-scoring first halves in playoff action but the scoring hasn't always been sustainable. We saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 of this series as the two teams scored 102 points in the first half before just 89 points were scored in the second half. Here, I'm anticipating an even higher-scoring opening half as the Celtics shake off the rust after a dismal shooting effort in Game 1. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as Boston was playing following a five-day layoff thanks to its opening round sweep of the Nets. Milwaukee was also playing on extended rest, but just three days. I simply don't feel we saw either team's best punch from an offensive standpoint. Here, I look for the Celtics to force the issue offensively in the opening half, but the defending champion Bucks are unlikely to back down early on, leading to plenty of points in the game's first 24 minutes. Take the first half over (10*). |
|||||||
05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Monday. The Mavs were involved in an incredibly low-scoring playoff series against the Jazz in the opening round (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a much different series to play out as they face the high-flying Suns in round two. Phoenix is in fine form offensively, even with Devin Booker in and out of the lineup. They enter Game 1 of this series having made good on 42+ field goals in nine consecutive games. That's despite the fact that they've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. I do anticipate the pace picking up a bit in this particular series, as the Mavs know they won't simply be able to slug it out and prevail the way they did against the struggling Jazz. Dallas entered the playoffs on an offensive tear, having knocked down 45, 42 and 46 field goals over its final three regular season games. Of course, an injury to Luka Doncic derailed its offense in the early stages of the series against Utah but the Mavs were able to rally and ultimately brush aside the discombobulated Jazz without too much stress. It's worth noting that Dallas got off 92 and 90 field goal attempts in its two regular season matchups with the Suns here in Phoenix. It didn't take full advantage, however, and the Suns won both of those games, knocking down 41 and 44 field goals in the process. As good as the Mavs can be defensively, I don't see them slowing a Suns offense that averages 44 made field goals and north of 115 points per game at home this season. The Mavs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road compared to at home this season (of note, their highest-scoring game of the opening round came in Game 3 in Utah when they scored 126 points). As I mentioned, I expect the pace to tick up a shade in this series, particularly here in Phoenix where the Suns have allowed opponents to get off 89 field goal attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-02-22 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are in fine form at the dish right now, noting that the Twins have pounded out 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games while the Orioles have posted their two highest hit totals of the season in their last four games (14 and 13). Meanwhile, the O's have yet to go more than two games without recording an error this season, which is a streak they'll test tonight. Note that they're just three games removed from a five-error affair against the Yankees last week. The Twins have averaged 6.0 runs per game over the last week while the Orioles have averaged 4.7 runs per contest over that same stretch. While Baltimore's average doesn't appear overly impressive, it is certainly an improvement over its season scoring average of 3.2 runs per game. There's nothing special about the pitching matchup in this one while the potential is certainly there for late runs with the Orioles bullpen in particular struggling to the tune of a collective 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over their last seven games. Just two of six meetings between these two teams last season totalled fewer than nine runs. Take the over (5*). |
|||||||
05-01-22 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been an extremely high-scoring series so far with the first two games producing a whopping 30 runs. I expect more of the same on Sunday. The Nationals bats have come to life, pounding out 33 hits in the last two games. They're now averaging 5.9 runs per game on just shy of .300 hitting on the road this season. The Giants are averaging just under five runs per game at home. They've recorded double-digit hit totals in five of their last eight games overall. An often overlooked aspect of the game when it comes to playing MLB totals is defense. Both of these teams have struggled in that realm lately with the Nats' committing nine errors in their last five games including three last night and the Giants recording at least one error in seven consecutive games. There's nothing special about today's starting pitching matchup and we also have a good chance for some late scoring noting that the Nats' bullpen has posted an ugly 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work away from home and the Giants 'pen having recorded a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 41 innings pitched at home. Take the over (6*). |
|||||||
05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 220.5 | 117-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Memphis at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. Considering the pace the series was played at, I would have projected more than one 'under' result between the Warriors and Nuggets last round. That 'under' result finally came in the series finale - a game that totalled just 200 points. Golden State has now gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. On the flip side, the Warriors are locked-in defensively, having limited six of their last nine opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, going back to March 30th, Golden State has given up 40 or fewer made field goals in eight of 11 contests. The Grlzzlies knocked down more than 40 field goals just twice in their six-game series against the T'Wolves last round. The playoffs are obviously a different animal than the regular season and Memphis found that out as it got off 87 or fewer FG attempts in four of its six first round contests (it averages 94 FG attempts per game this season). However, the Grizzlies are also on a terrific defensive run right now, having held the T'Wolves to 38 or fewer made field goals in each of the last five games last round. Nine of Memphis' last 13 opponents have gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
05-01-22 | Mariners v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Miami at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. We saw a return to business as usual for the Marlins yesterday as they prevailed in another low-scoring affair. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball through the first month of the season. He checks in sporting a 0.40 ERA and 0.85 WHIP through his first four starts, striking out 22 and walking only four in 22 1/3 innings along the way. For the Marlins, Sandy Alcantara has been terrific as well. He has recorded a 1.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings pitched at home this season. Both bullpens have been reliable as well with the Mariners 'pen having recorded a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the road and the Marlins relief corps posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home. In fact, Miami has already recorded nine saves while blowing just one. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
04-30-22 | SC Freiburg v. Hoffenheim OVER 2.75 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hoffenheim and Freiburg at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting some offensive fireworks in this match and so are the oddsmakers with the total approaching three at most books. While I would still consider playing the 'over' at '3', I prefer to pay the extra juice to get it at 2.5 or at worst 2 3/4 here to ensure a 2-1 result cashes our ticket. Hoffenheim has incredibly gone 18 matches in this particular series without posting a clean sheet. With Freiburg currently scoring at will, the hosts will be hard-pressed to do so here as well. We've seen six of the last eight matches between these two squads go 'over' 2.5 goals. Freiburg has been somewhat forgiving defensively, noting that both teams have scored in four of its last five contests with all five of those matches going 'over' 2.5 goals. I'm confident we'll see Hoffenheim force the issue here as it sits six points clear of ninth-place Frankfurt and six points back of today's opponent, Freiburg, which sits three places ahead of it in the Bundesliga table - currently occupying one of the coveted top six spots. Of course, should Hoffenheim come out aggressively, that should only open the door for Freiburg to take advantage in transition. Take the over (6*). |
|||||||
04-29-22 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. The Padres are a terrific 'over' play right now for a few reasons. First and foremost, they're locked in at the plate, knocking out 8, 12, 8 and 11 hits over their last four games. But they're also giving up their share, with the opposition collecting 8, 8, 10 and 8 hits over that stretch. Finally, they're playing awful defensive. They've managed to rack up a whopping nine errors over their last four games. Here, they'll face a reeling Pirates squad that is also playing poor defense at the moment, with seven errors over their last five contests. The Buccos aren't hitting as well as the Padres right now, but they are just two games removed from a 13-hit, 8-run barrage against the Brewers. On the flip side, Pittsburgh has yielded its opponents 23, 10, 14, 4 and 9 hits over its last five games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7 pm et on Thursday. While we have seen the total drop throughout this series, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made - even after four consecutive 'under' results. The 76ers have gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four contests, making good on 38 or less in all four of those games. Meanwhile, the Raptors posted a high-water mark with 42 made field goals in Game 5, but still scored just 103 points. Prior to that, the Raps had knocked down 38, 38 and 38 field goals over their last three games. Neither team has managed to get off 90+ field goal attempts in any game in this series and I don't see that changing with the stakes incredibly high on Thursday night in Toronto. Keep in mind, the Raptors have held opponents to 38-of-83 shooting on average here at home this season. Likewise, the 76ers have limited the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals per contest away from home and average just 84 FG attempts per game themselves in enemy territory. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. All four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. The fact that Game 4 sailed 'over' the number by 20+ points has us working with a considerably higher total here. I believe it will prove too high. It's not as if the pace has really been there for such consistently high-scoring results in this series. In Game 4 for example, the Nuggets got off just 73 field goal attempts. That didn't matter though as they shot the lights out (56% from the field). In Game 3 the Warriors attempted just 74 field goals but they were also incredibly efficient, shooting 55% from the field. Here, I expect both teams to finally step up and play some defense as the Warriors look to close out the series while the Nuggets try to get proceedings back to Denver. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-9 with the Warriors playing at home in their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 219.3 points. The 'under' is also 65-46 with the Warriors coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with an average total of 220.1 points in that situation. Also note that Nuggets road games have been considerably lower scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of just 219.7 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Guardians v. Angels OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. Off a 3-0 shutout loss to open this series last night I look for the Guardians bats to finally wake from their slumber against Patrick Sandoval and the Angels pitching staff on Tuesday. With that being said, I'm not convinced Cleveland can keep the Los Angeles bats at bay. Triston McKenzie will get the nod for the Guardians. He has yet to last five innings in a start this season, which isn't out of the ordinary as he generally puts a lot of runners on base due to his inconsistent command. McKenzie walked four over 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox last week. Behind McKenzie is a Guardians bullpen that has posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a pair of blown saves (and none converted) on the road this season. As I mentioned, Patrick Sandoval will start for Los Angeles. Like McKenzie, he also likes to put runners on base, or has a tendency to do so anyway, allowing seven hits while handing out five free passes in only eight innings pitched so far this season. Despite their recent struggles at the dish, the Guardians are still averaging 5.2 runs per game and hitting .261 as a team on the road this season. They faced Sandoval once last season, scoring two earned runs in four innings in a game that totalled 11 runs. Behind Sandoval is an Angels bullpen that much like last year, has struggled here at home, posting a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with three saves converted and three blown. Take the over (7*). |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Now that we've got the starting goaltender matchup we wanted, we'll step in with a play on the 'under' in Tampa on Tuesday. The Lightning are coming off six straight 'over' results. They've scored a whopping 22 goals over their last three games alone - their highest such scoring run of the season. I expect them to 'manage' this game, however, noting that they recently suffered a couple of late season injury scares with Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev (Cirelli is expected back in the lineup on Tuesday while Sergachev remains questionable) and will close out the season with games on consecutive nights beginning on Thursday in Columbus. I mentioned the goaltending matchup in this one - it's certainly notable when you consider how well Elvis Merzlikins has been playing for the Blue Jackets. He has posted a .937 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'under' cashing in three of those four games. Also note that the 'under' is 4-1 in his five career starts against the Lightning. Columbus scored five goals in its most recent game - a 5-2 victory over Edmonton on Friday. Prior to that the Jackets had scored just eight goals over their last four games combined. The 'under' checks in 10-2 with the Jackets playing on the road off a win by 3+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 4.5 goals. While the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season totalled nine goals, that came in Columbus. The two teams have met four times in Tampa going back to the start of last season with those contests reaching just 4, 5, 4 and 7 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 219.5 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-22 | Juventus v. Sassuolo Calcio UNDER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sassuolo and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I can't help but feel that both sides would be satisfied with a low-scoring draw in this Monday Serie A matchup. Juventus sits fairly comfortable inside the top four in the Serie A table, five points ahead of fifth-place Roma with this being its match-in-hand. Sassuolo is in no man's land in some sense, sitting 10th in the table, a whopping 21 points north of relegation but 10 points outside the coveted top six spots. We're dealing with a relatively high posted total here due largely to the fact that each of the last 10 meetings in this series has gone 'over' 2.5 goals. With that being said, Juventus has seen four of its last five matches overall stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Sassuolo will likely take on a rather defensive shape here as it looks to break a streak of seven consecutive matches allowing at least one goal. However, I also expect Juventus to take a rather cautious approach as it has yielded at least a goal in six consecutive matches against Sassuolo and will be looking to keep its three match undefeated streak intact. While a 'push' is always a fairly probable outcome when dealing with 'on the nose' totals such as this one (the standard total is set at 3.0 at the time of writing), I believe there's a good chance we see a 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 outcome here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-22 | Wild v. Predators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Minnesota rolled to a 6-3 win over the expansion Kraken on Friday night. Seattle seemingly woke a sleeping giant in that contest, jumping out to an early 2-0 lead before the Wild exploded for six goals. That was Minnesota's second straight game scoring six goals. Note, however, that both of those contests came at home. The Wild have scored three goals or less in four of their last five road games. They've yet to score more than two goals in a game against the Predators this season, losing all three previous matchups. Minnesota is currently missing a number of key contributors due to injury, including Matt Dumba, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway. The Preds will be looking to bounce back from a 6-2 drubbing in Tampa last night. The good news is, Nashville has been much better defensively here at home, allowing just 2.6 goals per game this season. Note that the Wild average just 2.8 goals per game with an average total of 5.0 goals when playing on the road after scoring 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed at a 10-3 clip in that situation. Similarly, the 'under' is 17-7 with the Wild playing on the road after consecutive games totalling 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the 'under' has cashed in 21 of the last 35 meetings here in Music City, with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 225 | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Thursday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. We're actually dealing with the highest posted total of the series so far after the first three games all found their way 'over' the total. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in Game 3, the pace hasn't necessarily been there to dictate such high-scoring results. The same held true in Game 3 but both teams simply shot the lights out. Golden State knocked down 41-of-74 field goal attempts while Denver made good on 40-of-80 of its field goal attempts. Golden State knocked down four more three-pointers than its season average away from home in Game 3, while also getting to the line seven more times than its road average. Facing elimination, I do expect the Nuggets to put forth a more disciplined defensive effort here. Meanwhile, the Warriors lukewarm defensive effort in Game 3 was only a blip during an incredible run. They've held seven of their last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last eight opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 72-47 with the Warriors playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins while the Nuggets have posted a 19-43 o/u record when playing at home after allowing their previous opponent to shoot 55% or better, as is the case here. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 222 | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We haven't touched this series since cashing with the first half 'over' in Game 1 last Sunday. Game 2 ended up being lower-scoring than Game 1, ultimately staying 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a lower total for Game 3 on Saturday. I believe it's the wrong move. Note that the Nets managed to get off just 78 and 76 field goal attempts in the first two games of this series, yet still scored 114 and 107 points. The 107 points in Game 2 matched their lowest scoring output going all the way back to March 3rd. Interestingly, they followed up that 107-point effort on March 3rd with a 120-point performance in a game that totalled 246 points against the Celtics on March 6th. We can anticipate the pace ticking up a bit with the scene shifting to Brooklyn for Game 3. Note that going back to March 27th the Nets have allowed their last seven opponents here at home to get off 98, 100, 89, 99, 84, 102 and 92 field goal attempts. In the two contests where we didn't see their opponents attempt 90+ field goals, we still saw 239 and 225 total points. The Celtics actually made good on just 39 field goals in Game 2 of this series yet still scored 114 points. In each of their previous six contests they had knocked down 42+ field goals and they check in shooting 41-of-88 on average away from home this season. In two regular season matchups here in Brooklyn, the C's made good on 46 and 50 field goals so they're certainly comfortable shooting on this floor. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Capitals v. Coyotes UNDER 6.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Arizona at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes have now seen each of their last six games go 'over' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Friday, however. For the Capitals, this is a game they might just look to 'manage' as they have a difficult stretch coming up to end the season, beginning a stretch of four games in six nights on Sunday at home against Toronto. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive games in which both teams scored 3+ goals, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.0 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 9-2 with Arizona coming off consecutive games in which it scored 3+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 4.8 goals. While the Coyotes are by no means a stout defensive team, they have given up just 2.1 goals per game with an average total of only 4.7 goals when coming off a home loss against a division opponent this season (seven-game sample size), which is the situation here. Note that these two teams have met once previously this season, with the Capitals skating to a 2-0 home victory back in October. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Rangers offense hasn't exactly lived up to its lofty expectations so far this season but we saw signs of a breakout last night as they produced eight runs, rallying from a 5-0 deficit to win 8-6 in Seattle. I'm confident they can build on that performance against A's starter Adam Oller, who has allowed seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work this season, not to mention an A's bullpen that has yet to enjoy an off day this season. On the flip side, I'm not counting on Rangers starter Glenn Otto to shut down the A's offense. He checks in having allowed seven earned runs through his first two starts this season, spanning seven innings. The Rangers bullpen, meanwhile, started bad and has only gotten worse, posting a 5.65 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the over (5*). |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a high-scoring affair in Seattle last night as the Mariners fell by an 8-6 score against Texas. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Friday as Seattle hosts Kansas City. The Royals have scored four runs or less in six straight games and have produced a grand total of six runs in each of their last two three-game series'. They'll likely have their hands full with Mariners starter Chris Flexen tonight. He's struggled through his first two outings this season but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot as he faces a Royals club he held to just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings against last September. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has been lights out for the most part this season, checking in having posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over its last seven contests. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He's been dealing out of the gate this season, working at least six innings in each of his first two starts, giving up just two earned runs in 13 innings. While the Royals bullpen got off to a bit of a rocky start this season, it has since turned it around, recording a collective 0.69 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the under (4*). |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks UNDER 222 | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Friday. While Game 2 of this series was higher scoring than Game 1, I don't expect that trend to continue as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday. Throw away a meaningless regular season finale against Orlando and the Heat are on a tremendous run defensively. Outside of that game against the Magic, they've held their other 16 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts going back to March 11th. They've also held seven of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been on an offensive tear, scoring 111 or more points in seven straight games. I'm not sure it's sustainable, however, noting that they've gotten off 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests - the lone outlier being that aforementioned game against Orlando. The Hawks may be known as a fast-paced team, yet they've actually held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts, permitting just 81, 82 and 79 over their last three games. That's not to mention the fact they've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. This will be the seventh meeting between these teams since January. As I like to say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball and just once in the previous six meetings have we seen either team reach 90 FG attempts (that game still totalled just 206 points). Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Senators v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' the last time these two teams met in March and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. You would have to go back four games to find the last time the Senators posted an 'under' result. I expect that to change here. Note that Ottawa is averaging a woeful 1.3 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals when coming off a road game in which both teams scored 3+ goals this season, as is the case following Tuesday's 4-3 win in Vancouver. The 'under' is 20-7 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled 7+ goals this season, leading to an average total of just 5.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have posted a 3-11 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal loss over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of 4.4 goals in that spot. We're likely to see a matchup between Anton Forsberg and Elvis Merzlikins in goal in this one and both have been playing well with Forsberg posting a .919 save percentage over his last four games and Merzlikins having recorded a .920 save percentage over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Mainz v. VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Mainz at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these squads are dealing with a number of key injuries and absences on the back line with multiple defenders slated to miss another match on Friday. While Mainz is coming off a less-than-thrilling 0-0 draw, I believe we're set up for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday. Note that Wolfsburg has seen 'over' 2.5 goals in four of its last five contests, conceding the first goal in four of those five matches as well. While Mainz has had little success on 'away' soil this Bundesliga campaign (it checks in 17th in the table when only factoring in 'away' matches) it should feel confident here as it has notched three goals in each of its last two dates with Wolfsburg, most recently securing a 3-0 victory last December. Wolfsburg is fresh off a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund. It has been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks but you have to figure we'll see it come out aggressively here after such a poor showing last time out. Noting that Mainz has gone winless in its last four matches, Wolfsburg will be keen to put it on its back foot early in this one. Note that Mainz has allowed just shy of two goals per contest away from home in Bundesliga action this season. On the flip side, while it is coming off a shotless performance in that nil-nil draw against Stuttgart, it hasn't been held off the scoresheet entirely in an 'away' Bundesliga match since December. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. The first two games of this series have both gone 'over' the total, even though the pace hasn't necessarily been there. The Warriors shot the lights out in those two games, knocking down 43 and 46 field goals despite being held to just 82 and 84 field goal attempts. That's nothing out of the ordinary as Golden State has actually gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 13 games overall. In terms of the Warriors red hot shooting, we have a catalyst for change at play here as the scene shifts to Denver for Game 3 on Thursday. While the Warriors have been terrific offensively in this series, it's their defense that is absolutely locked in right now, and has been for weeks. They've held six of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. We've seen them make a concerted effort to frustrate the opposition and slow the pace away from home, limiting 14 of their last 16 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. For the season, they've held opponents to an average of 39-of-86 shooting on the road. For the Nuggets, they obviously need to step up defensively in an 0-2 hole in this series. They've actually held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts with the only exception coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the Lakers. Remember, we saw a matchup between these two teams total just 175 points - a game the Nuggets won - earlier this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 21-10 with the Warriors coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. In the long-term picture we've seen the 'under' cash at a 72-46 clip with Golden State playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-21-22 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Division F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Texas and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This has been a fairly low-scoring series through the first two games with Seattle inflicting most of the damage offensively (it has scored 10 of the 14 runs in the series). Here, I'm looking for another low-scoring start. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rangers bullpen that has been awful in the early going this season (5.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 54 2/3 IP). Rangers starter Taylor Hearn has been average at best through two starts, which is about all that Texas can really expect from the back-of-the-rotation starter. With that being said, I'm confident he can hold the Mariners average offense in check here, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He'll have the benefit of facing a Rangers lineup that while explosive on paper, has yet to wake from its early season slumber (Texas has scored nine runs over its last four games combined). Gonzalez is coming off a scintillating seven-inning performance against the Astros and checks in having allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts against Texas, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
|||||||
04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm not expecting much in the way of offense on 'getaway day' in Queens on Thursday afternoon. After a relatively high-scoring opener reached nine total runs in this series, we've seen the last two games total a combined 11 runs. I like the starting pitching matchup here with Anthony DeSclafani going for the Giants against Cookie Carrasco of the Mets. DeSclafani is off to an unimpressive start with an ERA north of four and a WHIP approaching 1.70 through two outings. I expect him to turn it around here, however, noting that he has posted a solid 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 8 2/3 innings. It's not as if the Mets are tearing the cover off the ball, hitting a collective .247 here at home this season. Cookie Carrasco has allowed just five hits and one earned run over 10 2/3 innings to open the campaign. Like DeSclafani, he faces a favorable matchup here with the Giants hitting just .208 as a team on the road this season. Both bullpens are reliable to say the least. The San Francisco bullpen has posted a collective 1.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while the Mets 'pen has recorded a 3.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Take the under (6*). |