Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-13-22 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a couple of relatively low-scoring games between these two division rivals in yesterday's day-night double-header. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for Chicago. He's had a tough season so far, posting a 4.45 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.4 runs per nine innings. Last time out he yielded five earned runs over 6 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers. Note that he'll be making his second consecutive start on short (four days) rest on Wednesday. It's a similar story for Guardians starter Aaron Civale. He actually pitched well against the lowly Royals in his most recent outing but his overall numbers remain poor this season. Civale checks in sporting a 4.28 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while giving up almost 7.0 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has held up well lately but is getting into 'overworked' territory, noting that Chicago hasn't had a day off since June 30th and comes off the double-header yesterday. The Guardians 'pen coughed up three runs in last night's game and entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.35 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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07-13-22 | Phillies v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 2-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has firmly entrenched himself in the N.L. Cy Young Award conversation again this season, posting a 2.46 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while allowing only 2.84 runs per nine innings. He'll face a difficult challenge against the Blue Jays at hitter-friendly Rogers Centre on Wednesday, but I'm confident he'll be up for it. His counterpart will be Ross Stripling. Few expected Stripling to last this long in the Jays starting rotation this season and make no mistake, he's not only filling a role due to injuries (although that has factored in) - he's actually pitched well, sporting a 3.07 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while yielding just north of 3.6 runs per nine innings. We've finally seen the Blue Jays bullpen round back into form, checking into last night's contest with a 3.53 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over its last seven games. Meanwhile, the Phillies relief corps has been lights out, posting a 2.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over that same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-11-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
A.L. F5 Innings Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair as two back-of-the-rotation starters take the ball in rookie Adrian Martinez of the A's and Spencer Howard of the Rangers. With that being said, we'll play the 'first five innings' only in this one as I do respect both bullpens, especially given their current form (A's 2.10 ERA and 1.01 WHIP L7 games and Rangers 2.66 ERA and 1.23 WHIP L7 games - both entering yesterday's action). Adrian Martinez has made three starts for the A's this season. He's been getting progressively worse it seems as his FIP has risen to 5.90 and his WHIP to 1.40. Perhaps most concerning is the fact that he's been tagged for 2.4 home runs per nine innings, despite not allowing a single long ball in his first big league start. The Mariners and Blue Jays have knocked him around for four home runs over his last two outings and I look for the Rangers to add to that total here. All told, Martinez checks in yielding 6.0 runs per nine innings. Although I do realize we're dealing with a small sample size of just 15 innings, Martinez previously recorded a 5.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP at AAA Las Vegas this season, logging 64 innings. Spencer Howard has worked only 10 2/3 innings for the Rangers this year. With that being said, the numbers aren't good. He checks in with an 8.92 FIP and 1.88 WHIP. While we are likely to see some positive regression to the mean, keep in mind he logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.61 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings split between Philadelphia and Texas last season. For his career he's allowed just shy of 8.0 runs per nine innings in 101 innings of work. While the A's certainly aren't tearing the cover off the ball, they have proven to be a better offensive team on the road than at home this season, averaging 3.8 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 3.2 runs per contest). Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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07-11-22 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 7 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. This is the best pitching matchup on Monday's board as the Mets send Max Scherzer to the hill for his second start since returning from injury. He was lights out in his first, tossing six innings of two-hit shutout ball while striking out 11 without issuing a single walk. That was against the Reds. He'll obviously be facing a tougher challenge here but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Scherzer checks in with a 2.62 FIP and 0.88 WHIP this season, allowing just 2.43 runs per nine innings. He might be facing the Braves at the right time. They mustered only four runs for the second straight game on Sunday, and needed 12 innings to get there, against the lowly Nationals no less. They've been held to four runs or less in four of their last five contests. Max Fried will counter for Atlanta on Monday. If you follow my plays regularly you know how high I am on the Braves ace. He's capable of matching Scherzer pitch-for-pitch having recorded a 2.50 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while yielding only 2.6 runs per nine innings this season. The Mets plated 10 runs in last Thursday's series-opener against the Marlins but proceeded to score a grand total of just seven runs over the next three games, going 1-2 along the way. Both bullpens are better than average in my opinion, with the Mets checking in with a 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the road this season and the Braves sporting a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP at home (entering yesterday's action). Take the under (8*). |
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07-11-22 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Monday. This has been a very low-scoring series with just 10 runs scored through the first three games. I expect more of the same on Monday as we have a fine starting pitching matchup between Aaron Nola of the Phillies and Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals. Nola owns a 2.91 FIP and 0.93 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Nola is a Phillies bullpen that has been terrific lately, posting a 1.61 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. Miles Mikolas is having a terrific year for the Cards as well. He has posted a 3.65 FIP and 0.99 WHIP, giving up just over 3.0 runs per nine frames. The St. Louis bullpen owns a sparkling 0.76 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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07-10-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a trio of high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold in Sunday night's series finale. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the Yankees. He checks in sporting a 3.40 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing only 3.63 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday night, Nick Pivetta, is coming off a rocky outing last time out but still sports a 3.64 FIP and 1.16 WHIP this season while yielding less than 3.7 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have performed well lately with the Yankees relief corps having posted a collective 2.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games and the Red Sox 'pen checking in with a 2.87 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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07-10-22 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the best starting pitching matchups on Sunday's board as the Marlins send Sandy Alcantara to the hill against Taijuan Walker of the Mets. Alcantara is having a Cy Young Award-caliber campaign, having posted a 2.85 FIP and 0.91 WHIP while yielding only 2.34 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday, Taijuan Walker, has impressed as well, posting a 3.09 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while giving up just under 3.0 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been reasonably effective lately, with the Marlins posting a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games and the Mets recording a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-09-22 | Rays v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The opener of this series featured a terrific pitching matchup but Saturday’s contest will feature two back of the rotation starters in Drew Rasmussen of the Rays and rookie Hunter Greene of the Reds. Rasmussen checks in with a 3.84 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, yielding right around 3.9 runs per nine innings. In other words, he’s likely to give up some runs, even against the lowly Reds (to their credit they do average 5.0 runs per game at home this season). We’ve been picking on the rookie Greene for much of the season and for good reason as he’s generally been awful, recording a 5.67 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while giving up 6.13 runs per nine innings. Behind Greene is a Reds bullpen that owns a 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP while blowing six saves and converting only four at home this season (entering last night’s action). Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-22 | Twins v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 7-9 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Devin Smeltzer has done nothing but impress for the Twins this season. While his 4.90 FIP leaves a lot to be desired, his 1.03 WHIP and 3.2 runs allowed per nine innings tell a different story. He's worked at least six innings and allowed a grand total of just four earned runs over his last three outings. Behind Smeltzer is a terrific Twins bullpen that has posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven games. Speaking of bullpens, the Rangers 'pen has recorded a sparkling 2.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over that same stretch. Texas starter Martin Perez has 'turned back the clock' and is having a fantastic campaign. He checks in sporting a 2.84 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing less than 2.8 runs per nine innings this season. Take the under (9*). |
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07-09-22 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup last night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' on Saturday afternoon. Rookie Garrett Hill will get his second start for the Tigers after tossing six impressive innings of one-run ball in his big league debut against the Guardians. Prior to the call-up, Hill had posted an ERA north of four but a respectable WHIP of 1.22 at the AAA level. He'll look to take advantage of a disappointing White Sox offense that has produced just 4.1 runs per game at home this season. Behind Hill is an underrated Tigers bullpen that owns a 2.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road this season. Johnny Cueto will counter for Chicago. He didn't have his best stuff last time out but still held the Twins to only two earned runs over six innings. He checks in allowing just 3.45 runs per nine innings this season and has been terrific in three previous daytime outings, recording a 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The White Sox bullpen has been up-and-down but let's keep things in perspective here as the Tigers, while scoring seven runs last night, still average only 2.8 runs per game on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-08-22 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan OVER 45 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Saskatchewan at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks wild 34-31 loss to the Lions last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Last year, the RedBlacks and Riders combined to score just 33 points in their lone meeting here in Regina. On paper, Ottawa is immensely improved offensively, even if it hasn't played out that way on the field through three games. The RedBlacks check in 0-3 on the campaign but certainly showed some signs of life in last week's narrow loss. The fact that they put up 31 points despite an off game from QB Jeremiah Masoli (14-of-27 passing) was encouraging. The concern here is that Ottawa is missing a number of key cogs in the defensive backfield, most notably Patrick Levels and Abdul Kanneh. After allowing B.C. QB Nathan Rourke to go off in last week's game (359 yards passing), it will be hard-pressed to bounce back playing on the road with an undermanned secondary. The RedBlacks aren't generating nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks (they had just one sack last week) which opens the door for Riders QB Cody Fajardo to pick them apart on Friday. Saskatchewan just hung 41 points on Montreal in what was a quick revenge spot after getting blown out by the Alouettes the week previous. I don't think we've seen the Riders best offensively but it's been encouraging to see RB Jamal Morrow go off for a pair of 100+ yard rushing games already this season, including 103 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries last week. Note that Ottawa has been among the worst in the CFL at stopping the run, giving up just shy of 4.6 yards per rush this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-08-22 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as the Tigers pulled out a narrow 2-1 victory. I'm expecting a much different story to unfold on Friday as Detroit sends Tarik Skubal to the mound against Lucas Giolito of the White Sox. Skubal's overall numbers this season are solid. He's posted a 3.09 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. However, the wheels have come off recently as he's allowed 23 earned runs over his last five starts, spanning just 23 1/3 innings of work. The White Sox don't figure to be the team he turns it around against as he owns a career 6.95 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in five starts against them. He lasted just four innings, allowing four earned runs, in a 10-1 loss to Chicago the only previous time he faced it this season. His counterpart Lucas Giolito has pitched better of late, but still owns a disappointing 4.52 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings this season. Nothing seems to come easy for him against the Tigers, noting that you would have to go back eight starts to find the last time Giolito guided the White Sox to a win by 2+ runs in this series. While both bullpens have been reasonably effective lately, they're getting into 'overworked' territory having not had a day off since June 30th. Take the over (10*). |
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07-08-22 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates were involved in a pair of low-scoring affairs against the Reds in yesterday's double-header in Cincinnati. I expect a different story to unfold as they open a divisional series in Milwaukee on Friday. J.T. Brubaker will get the call for the visiting Pirates. He checks in sporting a 3.92 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 5.3 runs per nine innings. An even bigger concern than Brubaker is the recent performance of the Buccos bullpen. Pittsburgh's relief corps has posted a collective 9.70 ERA and 2.08 WHIP over the last seven games and things won't get any easier following yesterday's double-header. Left-hander Aaron Ashby will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has recorded similarly pedestrian numbers to those of Brubaker with a 3.87 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing 5.22 runs per nine innings. While not to the same degree of the Pirates' the Brewers 'pen has posted a 4.56 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the over (8*). |
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07-08-22 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I really feel this is a game where the Braves can 'name their score' against a down-trodden Nationals pitching staff. With that being said, I don't have a lot of faith in Atlanta starter Charlie Morton, who has had an up-and-down campaign as a 38-year old. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings of one-hit ball but I question whether he can duplicate that performance as he makes his second consecutive start on just four days' rest (the only other time he did that this season he allowed four earned runs including two home runs in six innings at home against the light-hitting Pirates). Erick Fedde gets the start for Washington. He's having another very Erick Fedde-like season having posted a 4.33 FIP and 1.41 WHIP. Fedde averages only 5.0 innings per start and that's concerning as the Nats' bullpen has been extraordinarily bad on the road this season, recording a collective 6.22 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Speaking of bullpens, the Braves 'pen has posted a terrific 2.35 ERA over its last seven contests but a 1.48 WHIP over that stretch tells a different story. The Nats' bats were relatively quiet in a series in Philadelphia but they still perform considerably better on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game. Take the over (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This game will feature one of the best starting pitching matchups on Thursday’s board as the Giants send Logan Webb to the hill against Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Webb didn’t have his best stuff in his most recent outing against the White Sox but still hung in there for six innings, yielding three earned runs on six hits and just one walk. For the season, Webb has put up rock solid numbers with a 2.98 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing 3.5 runs per nine innings. Of course, Padres starter Joe Musgrove has firmly planted himself in the N.L. Cy Young Award conversation. He did allow three earned runs in his most recent start but that was over seven innings (while striking out 10) against a terrific Dodgers lineup. Musgrove checks in sporting a 3.10 FIP and 0.95 WHIP and has allowed only 2.64 runs per nine innings this season. We’ll play the first five innings only in this one simply due to the Giants bullpen being in terrible form having posted a 7.24 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I think the quiet nature of the Rockies bats over the course of a three-game series in Los Angeles may have lulled 'under' bettors into a false sense of security entering the opener of this four-game set in Arizona. We just saw this same starting pitching matchup between Austin Gomber and Dallas Keuchel last week and the rest was an 11-7 Rockies victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair here. While the Rockies bats have been slumbering, this should be an ideal breakout spot noting they're actually a .500 team against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game (that's 0.9 rpg higher than their season average). Keuchel has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 5.75 FIP and 2.11 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings of work split between Chicago (White Sox) and Arizona. Opponents have torched the veteran left-hander to the tune of 9.58 runs per nine innings. Austin Gomber hasn't been much better for the Rockies, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens offer little support in this case as the Colorado 'pen has posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games and the D'Backs relief corps owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-22 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Tigers are flying high off a stunning four-game sweep of the Guardians. I do think they'll be hard-pressed to keep it going as a sizable underdog against the White Sox but rather than lay the big price with the White Sox here, we'll go with the 'under' in what I believe projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair. If Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears, Dylan Cease most certainly owns the Detroit Tigers. Cease has made 11 career starts against the Tigers with the White Sox winning 10 of those games and the right-hander posting a sparkling 1.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He brings excellent form into this outing having allowed only two earned runs over his last seven starts. For the season, Cease has posted a 2.73 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing just shy of 3.6 runs per nine innings. Detroit will counter with rookie Beau Brieske. He's had an up-and-down campaign to be sure. With that said, he was finally able to start on a full five days' rest last time out and it showed as he matched a season-high going six innings while allowing just three earned runs against the Royals. Prior to that, Brieske's last three outings had come on just four days' rest. Brieske's overall numbers this year aren't good but we have seen flashes of brilliance (he allowed one earned run in five innings against the Dodgers, two earned runs in six innings against the Yankees and no earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays). Behind Brieske is a Tigers bullpen that has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.30 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take the under (7*). |
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07-07-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nationals will inexplicably give Joan Adon another turn in the starting rotation on Thursday, his first outing since coincidentally facing the same Phillies back on June 17th. That start didn’t go all that well for Adon as he was tagged for four earned runs on seven hits over five innings. The right-hander enters Thursday’s start sporting an ugly 5.26 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.27 runs per nine innings this season. Phillies starter Bailey Falter hasn’t been much better, albeit with a smaller sample size. He has recorded a 5.99 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while yielding 6.0 runs per game in 24 innings of work this season. Like Adon, Falter will be making his second start this season against Thursday’s opponent having allowed three earned runs on five hits including two home runs back in June. The presence of the Phillies red hot bullpen is the only thing that would give us some pause with this play, but I think that unit’s recent effectiveness is somewhat negated by the Nats’ awful relief corps which has posted a 6.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-22 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We should see runs aplenty in Game 1 of Thursday's day-night double-header featuring the Pirates and Reds at Great American Ballpark. We won with the 'over' in the Buccos 16-0 rout at the hands of the Yankees last night while also successfully fading the Reds in their 8-3 extra innings loss against the Mets. Here, we'll focus on the total as we have two starting pitchers on downward trajectories and quite simply two of the worst bullpens in baseball ready to take the field. Roansy Contreras got off to a fine start for the Pirates this season but the bloom is suddenly off the rose as he's seen his FIP rise to 5.09 and his WHIP to 1.46 while allowing 4.7 runs per nine innings on the campaign. With the Reds getting their second look at the rookie right-hander this season there's little reason for optimism heading into this start. Mike Minor will get another turn in the Reds rotation. He actually held up well in his most recent start, allowing just two earned runs over six frames against Atlanta but Cincinnati still gave up nine runs in a blowout loss. Overall, Minor has been generally awful this season, recording a 7.34 FIP and 1.48 WHIP while yielding just north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. I mentioned the two bullpens - Pittsburgh's relief corps checks in sporting a 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games (and that's before last night's drubbing against the Yankees) while the Reds 'pen has posted an 8.44 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to giving up six runs in the 9th and 10th innings against the Mets last night). Take the over (9*). |
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07-06-22 | Royals v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros offense has been on fire lately but let's keep in mind this is a team that averages just 4.5 runs per game at home this season. As they look to post a ninth consecutive victory on Wednesday, I believe some regression at the plate could be in order. Royals starter Brad Keller will be tasked with cooling Houston off. He's actually been better than I anticipated this season, posting a 4.35 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. While those numbers aren't impressive by any means, Keller has been at his best lately, recording a 2.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over his last three outings. The Royals bullpen behind Keller owns an ugly ERA north of 5.00 over the last seven games but that doesn't tell the whole story as they've also posted a collective 1.16 WHIP over that stretch. Houston will hand the ball to Cristian Javier, who is quietly putting together an A.L. Cy Young-contending campaign. Javier has posted a sparkling 2.57 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while allowing just 2.58 runs per nine innings. Should the Houston bullpen be called upon here, we'll note that they've recorded a 0.88 ERA and 0.69 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a well-pitched game from both sides on Wednesday as the Cardinals send Miles Mikolas to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Mikolas is having another fine season, recording a 3.49 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while allowing just under 3.0 runs per nine innings. Perhaps even more impressive is the bullpen behind him - particularly of late - as the Cards relief corps' has posted a collective 1.40 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games. While Mikolas has pitched well, Braves ace Max Fried has been even better. He checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.52 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while giving up only 2.75 runs per nine innings. The Braves bullpen hasn't been lights out lately but might not be asked to do too much here given the fact that Fried averages 6 1/3 innings per start this season. Take the under (9*). |
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07-06-22 | Yankees v. Pirates OVER 9 | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Yankees last three games and also in consecutive games involving the Pirates. I look for a reversal of that trend on Wednesday as New York sends Luis Severino to the mound against Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Severino hasn't pitched poorly by any means but he hasn't been lights out either. The right-hander checks in sporting a 3.65 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings. Both his home runs and walks allowed per nine innings are up in comparison to his career averages, keeping in mind this would be his first full season since 2018. Mitch Keller has been as advertised for the Buccos this season, recording a 4.04 FIP and 1.53 WHIP while giving up just under 5.3 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Pirates bullpen owns an ugly 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games, leaving the door open for late runs in this one. Rather than lay the -1.5 runs at an inflated price with the Yankees, we'll go the totals route here. Take the over (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. The two bullpens stepped in and saved the day for 'under' bettors in this matchup last night. The A's have now seen the 'under' go 4-0-1 over their last five games. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Jose Berrios will get the start for the struggling Blue Jays. He's not having a good season - not by any stretch of the imagination. Berrios owns a 5.17 FIP and 1.43 WHIP and has been tagged for north of 5.7 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Wednesday, A's starter James Kaprielian, has arguably been even worse. He checks in sporting a 5.75 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. While the two bullpens bring solid recent form into this contest, I'm not anticipating them delivering another clean sheet on Wednesday afternoon. Take the over (8*). |
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07-05-22 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two N.L. Central rivals yesterday as the Brewers walked it off in a 5-2 extra innings victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the hitters should have plenty of success in this one. Cubs veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks has had an up-and-down season, perhaps with more downs than ups. He owns a 4.75 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.8 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Jason Alexander. He's arguably been slightly worse than Hendricks, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while giving up 4.7 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens have been serviceable lately but are showing some signs of wear with neither team enjoying an off day since June 27th. The two 'pens have worked 32 and 28 2/3 innings, respectively, over the last seven games with the Cubs relief corps having posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over that stretch and the Brewers checking in with a 3.45 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-22 | Mariners v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. We have a fine starting pitching matchup as the Mariners and Padres wrap up their brief two-game interleague series on Tuesday afternoon in San Diego. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He's been terrific in his second big league season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just 2.95 runs per nine innings. While the Mariners bullpen did cough up a couple of meaningless runs in the ninth inning yesterday, that unit has performed exceptionally well lately, recording a collective 2.21 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over the last seven games (prior to yesterday's contest). Padres starter Mike Clevinger is back in the bigs after missing the entire 2021 campaign due to injury and he seemingly hasn't missed a beat. He checks in with a 3.35 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, giving up just 3.1 runs per nine innings this season. That's all the more impressive when you consider he stumbled in his first two outings. Over his last four starts, Clevinger has allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings of work. While the Padres bullpen has struggled lately, its long-term track record gives me confidence, particularly here at home. Entering yesterday's game, the Pads' relief corps had recorded a collective 3.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams are coming off very different results on Sunday as the Twins failed to complete the sweep of the Orioles, falling by a 3-1 score at home, while the White Sox wrapped up an impressive sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, delivering a 13-4 victory. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as these two A.L. Central rivals square off in Chicago. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's had an up-and-down season to be sure but does bring solid form into this start having allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings of work. Bundy checks in sporting a 4.32 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the season but what I like about him is the fact that he doesn't walk a ton of batters, yielding just 1.8 walks per nine innings. White Sox starter Johnny Cueto is having a fine season, recording a 4.15 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just 3.5 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has posted the second best FIP in baseball over the last week, checking in with a 2.22 mark. For their part, Twins relievers have recorded a terrific 3.18 FIP over the same stretch, 11th best in the majors for that time frame. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-22 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 169.5 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Monday. The most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 155 points so not surprisingly we're dealing with a lower posted total this time around. I'm not sure we've seen enough of an adjustment though. The Mercury have done a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, allowing 67 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games. They allowed 91 points in their most recent contest - a blowout loss against Chicago as the Sky quite simply shot the lights out (30-of-57 from the field). While Los Angeles has been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 37 and 30 field goals over its last two contests I expect it to run into a speedbump here. Note that the Sparks have tightened things up defensively, allowing 27 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Los Angeles allowed 70+ field goal attempts. With Phoenix playing its second game in three days and Los Angeles in a 3-in-4 situation, I'm not convinced either side will be interested in a track meet here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-22 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 1:35 pm et on Monday. Most are expecting plenty of offensive fireworks on the Fourth of July at Fenway Park but I look for a different story to unfold as these two A.L. East rivals do battle. We have a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup here with the Rays sending Jalen Beeks to the hill against Michael Wacha of the Red Sox. Beeks has posted a 3.69 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work this season, yielding only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Former Ray Michael Wacha has been more than serviceable for the Red Sox, recording a 3.97 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, giving up 2.94 runs per nine frames. The Rays just finished beating up on the Blue Jays pitching staff but I don't expect them to do the same against Boston. Given the total we're being offered in the first five innings, I don't feel we need to mess with the bullpens in this contest. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-03-22 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. St. Louis saw its three-game 'under' streak come to an end in a wild 7-6 victory over Philadelphia yesterday. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Adam Wainwright will take the ball for the Cardinals. He's having a 'turn back the clock' type of season, posting a 3.37 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, yielding less than 3.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday will be Zack Wheeler. He's labored through his last couple of outings but his overall numbers are still terrific as he's recorded a 2.53 FIP and 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 3.33 runs per nine innings. While the Cardinals bullpen has inexplicably blown four saves over the last week it has still posted solid numbers, a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the last seven contests. The Phillies 'pen checks in sporting a 0.99 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have not surprisingly been high-scoring but we have the best starting pitching matchup of the series on Sunday as the D'Backs send Zac Gallen to the hill against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. I look for this one to get off to a much lower-scoring start at least. Gallen owns a 3.75 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.67 runs per nine innings. He's coming off a poor performance in his most recent start but that was in a tough situation as he was facing the Padres for a second straight outing (in the span of less than a week). He's held the Rockies to two earned runs or less in seven of his eight career starts against them, including no runs over seven innings in his lone previous start against them this season. Chad Kuhl is quietly enjoying a terrific campaign in his first year with the Rockies. He's thrived at hitter-friendly Coors Field, posting a 2.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six starts. Kuhl checks in with a 3.95 FIP and 1.31 WHIP, yielding 3.72 runs per nine innings. In his most recent start he tossed a complete game shutout against the Dodgers (we won with the 'under' in that game). Rather than deal with two subpar bullpens in this matchup, we'll stick with the first five innings 'under' only. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-02-22 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan UNDER 46 | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. Last week we saw these two teams combine to score 50 points in an Als blowout victory in Montreal. I expect a different story to unfold in Saturday's rematch in Regina. Note that the Als set the tone for that relatively high-scoring affair by returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The only offensive touchdown scored prior to garbage time inside the final two minutes of the fourth quarter came early in the second quarter on a Riders defensive breakdown (70-yard touchdown pass by Montreal). I expect a sharper performance from the Saskatchewan defense here at home. On the flip side, the Riders will be without WR Shaq Evans. Montreal has held up reasonably well defensively so far this season, yielding just 63 points through three games, despite playing two of its three contests on the road. While the Als will have QB Vernon Adams Jr. back in the fold for this one, I'm actually not certain that helps their offense as Trevor Harris filled in admirably over the last two games. Take the under (8*). |
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06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 47.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Ottawa has seen each of its first two games stay 'under' the total this season as it works a number of new pieces into the fold following many offseason moves. That's not to mention the fact that the RedBlacks faced the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers and their elite defense in each of the first two contests. I do expect Ottawa to fare better offensively in this one as they've had an extra week of practice time following the bye week. B.C. has lit up its first two opponents for 103 points, cruising to a perfect 2-0 start. While Ottawa's defense should be improved this season, or appears so on paper, the RedBlacks allowed Winnipeg to complete north of 70% of its passes through the first two games, not to mention the fact that it allowed 115 rush yards in its most recent game. It's also notable that Ottawa will likely be missing CB Abdul Kanneh for this contest. The Lions will be missing WR Bryan Burnham but I expect them to stay aggressive with QB Nathan Rourke rounding into form in the early going this season. Despite two lopsided affairs, the Lions still attempted a whopping 65 passes in their first two contests. Take the over (8*). |
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06-29-22 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. This might be the best starting pitching matchup on the entire MLB board on Wednesday as the White Sox send Michael Kopech to the hill against Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Kopech hasn’t had his best stuff over his last two starts, allowing seven earned runs in 11 innings in consecutive losses against the Astros and Orioles. His overall numbers remain solid, however, as Kopech has posted a 3.62 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing less than 2.9 runs per nine innings. Ohtani has been even better for the Angels, quietly putting together another fine campaign having recorded a 2.76 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while yielding an identical 2.9 runs per nine innings. While the Angels bullpen has been a little uneven lately, it might not be asked to do much here as Ohtani averages over six innings per start at home this season, lasting at least six fames in seven of his last eight outings. Chicago’s ‘pen has been better on the road than at home this season, posting a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP (entering last night’s action). Take the under (8*). |
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06-29-22 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. This N.L. Central showdown has all the makings of a slugfest at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Rookie Hunter Greene will get another turn in the rotation for the Reds, despite his recent struggles. Keep in mind, this will be his second start against the Cubs this season after allowing five earned runs on seven hits, including three home runs, in just five innings of work back in late May (the Reds won that game 20-5). Greene owns an ugly 5.70 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding 2.6 home runs per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Behind Green is a Reds bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 7.53 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over the last seven games. Justin Steele will counter for the Cubs. He’s had an up-and-down season but there have been more downs than ups recently as he has lasted a full six innings just twice in his last seven outings. For the season, Steele has recorded a 3.59 FIP and 1.45 WHIP with his hits (9.0) and walks (4.0) allowed per nine innings certainly a concern. Opponents have reached Steele for an average of 5.29 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has held up reasonably well lately but has been anything but lights out at Wrigley Field this season, posting a collective 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with only four saves converted and six blown (entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*). |
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06-29-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup lined up on Tuesday in Toronto. Canadian Nick Pivetta will start in his home country for the Red Sox and he’ll do so in fine form, having posted a 3.56 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season. He has allowed only 3.25 runs per nine innings. Pivetta has struggled in two previous outings against the Blue Jays this season but those came back in April when he was struggling. He’s pitched far better since and I look for him to minimize the damage against a tough Blue Jays lineup on Wednesday. Alek Monoah will counter for Toronto. He’s having a tremendous sophomore campaign, recording a 3.04 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while giving up only 2.36 runs per nine innings. The Jays struggling bullpen is certainly a concern but Manoah has shown the ability to consistently work deep into ball games, particularly here at home where he averages just shy of 6 2/3 innings per start, having made seven starts at Rogers Centre this season. Take the under (9*). |
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06-29-22 | Orioles v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox let Orioles spot starter Austin Voth off the hook in some sense in his most recent outing. I don’t expect the Mariners to be as forgiving on Wednesday afternoon. Voth has worked 27 2/3 innings this season but I’ve seen enough to come to the conclusion that he’s not long for the O’s rotation. Voth has posted a 4.54 FIP and 1.92 WHIP, giving up north of 8.1 runs per nine innings in limited duty this season. Chris Flexen will counter for the Mariners. He has recorded a 4.64 FIP and 1.42 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.3 runs per nine innings. Flexen continues to walk over 3.0 hitters per nine innings, while also yielding just under 10.0 hits. I expect the O’s to have plenty of scoring opportunities on Wednesday afternoon and I’m confident they can take advantage given how scrappy and productive they’ve been in recent weeks. We actually won with the ‘under’ in last night’s game - a 2-0 Mariners victory that didn’t see a run until the eighth inning - but I expect a much different story to unfold, at least early on, in Wednesday’s series finale. I have too much respect for two of the hottest bullpens in baseball right now so I’ll play the first five innings only here. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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06-28-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as the Orioles bats came alive against Mariners rookie starter George Kirby in a 9-2 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday, however, as Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound against reigning A.L. Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray for Seattle. Kremer has shown considerable improvement this season, even if we are talking about just 21 innings of work. He checks in sporting a 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while allowing only 2.14 runs per nine innings. At the minor league level, Kremer has worked nine shutout innings of two-hit ball this season, recording an impressive 18:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Of course the real star of the show for the Orioles has been their bullpen, which has posted a collective 1.23 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Robbie Ray will be looking to help his team snap out of a mini two-game skid. He owns an inflated 4.19 FIP but a more respectable 1.18 WHIP on the campaign. Over his last three outings he has posted a sparkling 0.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with two of those three contests totalling three runs or less. The Mariners bullpen has had a tough time nailing down saves at home this season with four blown compared to only three converted but does check in with a 0.81 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-22 | Tigers v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring affairs last time out but I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday’s series-opener in San Francisco. Tarik Skubal will get the start for Detroit. He’s been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal season for the Tigers. Skubal checks in with a 2.67 FIP and a 1.13 WHIP. While the fact that he’s allowed just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings is a bit of a concern, he should benefit from facing a Giants club that has scored three runs or less in seven of its last 11 contests. Behind Skubal is a sneaky-good Tigers bullpen that has posted a terrific 2.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road this season. Carlos Rodon barely broke a sweat in tossing seven innings of one-run ball against a tough Braves lineup last time out. He has posted a masterful 2.34 FIP and 1.09 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.81 runs per nine innings. The Giants bullpen has been somewhat disappointing this season but has shown signs of improvement lately, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over its last seven games. Facing a Tigers club that averages only 2.7 runs per game on the road this season should be music to the Giants relief corps’ ears. As should working behind Rodon as he has gone at least six innings in three consecutive starts. Take the under (8*). |
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06-28-22 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on tap in the Bronx on Tuesday as the A’s send Frankie Montas to the hill against rookie J.P. Sears for the Yankees. Montas has endured a couple of rocky stretches this season but his overall numbers have levelled out as he’s posted a 3.15 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 89 2/3 innings of work. He’s averaging a full six innings per start which certainly isn’t commonplace in today’s MLB. While the A’s bullpen has generally been a disappointment this season, the hope is that we won’t have to see too much of it on Tuesday and I will point out that it has held up better on the road than at home, recording a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.33 WHIP entering last night’s action. Sears has made just three appearances with the big club in the Bronx, including one start. In seven innings of work he’s yet to allow an earned run. His minor league numbers at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre jump off the page as he’s posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.74 WHIP to go along with a 50:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39 1/3 innings of work. He has given up just 2.75 runs per nine innings at the AAA level. Sears can pitch confidently here knowing that the A’s hit just north of .200 as a team against left-handed starters this season, averaging only 3.2 runs per game along the way. Behind Sears is one of the best bullpens in baseball as the Yanks’ relief corps enters tonight’s game sporting a 1.21 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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06-27-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 9-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams certainly know their way around low-scoring games with the Orioles entering Monday's matchup off seven consecutive 'under' results and the Mariners checking in sporting a 3-11-1 o/u mark over their last 15 contests. I expect a similar story to unfold on Monday. Tyler Wells will take the ball for the Orioles. It's easy to forget that he posted a terrific 3.63 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 57 innings of work during his rookie campaign last year. While he got off to a bit of a slow start this season he's since rounded into form, lowering his FIP to 4.28 and his WHIP to 1.10. Opponents are averaging just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings against him. Mariners rookie George Kirby will be Wells' counterpart on Monday. He has recorded a 3.76 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while yielding under 3.9 runs per nine innings during his rookie season. It gets better. This matchup pits two of the league's best bullpens based on current form. The O's 'pen has posted a collective 1.11 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven games and has converted 12 saves while blowing just one on the road this season. Seattle has arguably been even better in that department lately, recording a 0.44 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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06-27-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies had their three-game 'under' streak snapped in a 6-3 loss in Minnesota yesterday. Still, it's worth noting that since scoring eight runs in the first game of their road trip last week, they've been held to a grand total of 10 runs over their last five contests. All three games in the Dodgers weekend series in Atlanta stayed 'under the total, even with last night's game going to extra innings. Los Angeles is of course still missing Mookie Betts after he suffered a rib injury last week. While tonight's starting pitching matchup won't grab headlines, I feel it's a good one. Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson is having a terrific season, recording a 3.29 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. He didn't have his best stuff last time out against Cincinnati but still gave up just three earned runs over five innings. Anderson checks in sporting a 3.13 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in six road starts this season. Colorado will counter with Chad Kuhl. While his numbers certainly don't jump off the page, he's actually having a career year by most accounts. Kuhl has posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding 4.21 runs per nine innings. He's actually settled in nicely at hitter-friendly Coors Field, recording a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings of work. While the Rockies bullpen has been shaky lately, it has generally pitched better here at home, sporting a collective 4.23 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only four blown. The Dodgers 'pen has of course been lights out for much of the season. It entered last night's action with a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over its last seven contests and has blown just one save (compared to seven converted) on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-22 | Pirates v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Pirates are coming off a frustrating series sweep at the hands of the Rays in St. Petersburg as they were close in all three games but ultimately couldn't finish the job. A big reason for that is their fading bullpen. Pittsburgh's relief corps enters Monday's game having posted a collective 5.61 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. That doesn't bode well as Miguel Yajure will get a spot start for the Buccos in the opener of this series in Washington. He owns a career 7.00 FIP and 1.67 WHIP in 32 1/3 career innings at the big league level. So far this season, Yajure has pitched only 10 1/3 innings and it hasn't been pretty as he's been tagged for 13 earned runs on 16 hits and six walks. Washington will hand the ball to Erick Fedde. He's been his usual inconsistent self this season, recording a 4.25 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.6 runs per nine innings. Fedde tossed six shutout innings against Baltimore in his most recent start but that came on the road. Here at home, he owns a 5.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven starts. The Pirates will be getting their second look at him this season. Behind Fedde is a Nationals bullpen that has been pedestrian at best lately, posting a collective 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over its last seven games. Pirates hitters ran into some incredibly tough pitching against the Rays and should be more than happy to move on to Washington where the Nats allow 5.4 runs per game. Take the over (9*). |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 6 on Sunday. This series has certainly taken a turn since Tampa Bay delivered a 6-2 win in Game 3. Since then, we've seen consecutive 3-2 results. Now with the series shifting back to Tampa, there's little reason to expect anything different as the Lightning once again try to stay alive in this series. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay, while known for its offensive prowess, has been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing only 2.5 goals per game. It gave up just four goals in regulation time against the high-powered Avs offense in Games 3 and 4 here at home. In fact, it has held Colorado to exactly two goals in regulation time in three straight contests. The Avs can play some defense as well. They've allowed less than 3.0 goals per game in the playoffs. On the three previous occasions they've come off a loss in these playoffs, they've given up exactly two goals in their next game each time, with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the under (8*). |
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06-25-22 | Red Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series last night by a 6-3 score. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest on Saturday as Boston sends rookie Josh Winckowski to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Winckowski hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents so far, going up against the Orioles, A's and Tigers in his first three big league starts, with all three coming at home no less. With that being said, I like what I've seen from the rookie. He was a little shaky in his debut against the O's but since then has given up just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings of work. After issuing three walks in his first career start he's handed out only two free passes over his last two outings. While we're dealing with a small sample size, Winckowski checks in with a respectable 3.80 FIP and has allowed just under 3.7 runs per nine innings. It's not as if the Guardians have been tearing the cover off the ball either, scoring three runs or less in four of their last seven contests. Shane Bieber has rounded into form this season, posting a 2.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while giving up just 3.35 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a terrific Guardians bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home this season (entering last night's action). The Red Sox 'pen has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road (also entering last night's game). Take the under (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-26 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers have not surprisingly opened the season with consecutive low-scoring games against the Ottawa RedBlacks. I expect a different story to unfold this week, however, as they return home to host the winless Tiger-Cats. Hamilton jumped ahead 17-0 in the first quarter against Calgary in its home-opener last Saturday. Then we saw perhaps some complacency set in as the Ti-Cats allowed the Stampeders to get right back in the game and ultimately fell by a 33-30 score in overtime in the wildest game of the season to date. There were concerns entering the new season that the Ti-Cats defense might struggle with the new field layout and rule changes and that's been precisely the case through two games as they've allowed 30+ points against both Saskatchewan and Calgary. Things won't get any easier here as they face the two-time defending Grey Cup champion Blue Bombers on the road. Winnipeg hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard but it hasn't needed to. Game flow has dictated a pair of relatively low-scoring results against Ottawa - an opponent that's still finding its way with a new starting quarterback in former Ti-Cat Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton looks a little more settled on offense with QB Dane Evans completing 60-of-86 passes for just shy of 800 yards through two games. We've already seen the Bombers show some vulnerability defending the pass, allowing Masoli and the RedBlacks to rack up 711 passing yards over the last two games against them. These two teams met twice last season and both games featured higher closing totals than we're dealing with this week. Note that the most recent matchup produced 58 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Friday. We finally saw an 'under' result in this series in Game 4 as the Avalanche rallied twice from one-goal deficits to defeat the Lightning 3-2 in overtime, pushing them to the brink of elimination as the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5 on Friday. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Note that low-scoring games tend to come in bunches for the Lightning, with the 'under' going 28-19 with Tampa Bay coming off an 'under' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 20-8 the last 28 times the Bolts laced them up for Game 5 of a playoff series, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average. The Avs are of course known for their explosive offense but it's worth noting they've been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Remember, they shut out the Lightning the last time these two met in Denver in Game 2. Tampa Bay has done a much better job of containing the Avs offense over the last two games, allowing only four goals in regulation time. While home ice certainly made a different, here, we'll note that the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons (14-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Rockies v. Twins OVER 9 | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Colorado and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday but rather than play the full game 'over' the total, we'll look at the first five innings only as I really like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up for the hitters. German Marquez will take the ball for Colorado. To say that he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez enters Friday's start sporting a 4.89 FIP and 1.55 WHIP. Opponents are laying waste to the veteran right-hander to the tune of 6.9 runs per nine innings. Of course, the Twins aren't in much better shape on the mound with Dylan Bundy getting the nod. He did turn in his best outing of the season last time out against Arizona. However, the full season numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 4.52 FIP and 1.32 WHIP, allowing 5.3 runs per nine innings. Both teams enter this game having averaged 5+ runs per game over the last week. Expect early offense at Target Field on Friday. Take the first five innings over (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as three early home runs ultimately resulted in a high-scoring affair (we did win with the Yankees in comeback fashion). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Friday, however, as we have a terrific pitching matchup between Justin Verlander of the Astros and Luis Severino of the Yankees. Verlander has come back strong this season, posting a 3.40 FIP and 0.89 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.0 runs per nine innings. I like the bounce-back spot for him here after he struggled over 3 2/3 innings in a 7-0 loss to the White Sox last time out. Note that Verlander owns a 2.15 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in seven road outings this season. It's a similar story for Severino. He has recorded a 3.72 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.4 runs per nine innings. Like Verlander, he looks to bounce back from a shaky outing as he gave up five earned runs over five innings against the Blue Jays in his most recent start. Behind the two starters are two strong bullpens that, despite the Astros coughing up a late three-run lead last night, have performed well lately. Houston's 'pen still owns a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yanks relief corps' has posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a better starting pitching matchup than perhaps it first appears on paper. Dean Kremer will make his third start of the season for Baltimore. He struggled during his time in the bigs last year but has shown improvement here in 2022, posting a 3.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in limited work (15 1/3 innings). Quietly, the O’s have had one of the better bullpens in baseball this season, having recorded a collective 3.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (entering last night’s action). Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for the White Sox. I hesitate to say that he’s ‘turned back the clock’ as he’s actually been getting it done for years’. Cueto owns a 3.64 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings pitched this season. Opponents have managed to plate less than 3.2 runs per nine innings off of him. The White Sox bullpen hasn’t been all that reliable this season but has shown signs of turning it around lately, entering yesterday’s contest sporting a collective 3.49 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over their previous seven games. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. When most think of this matchup they think about the explosive offenses. I’m anticipating a contest dominated by pitching in Thursday’s series-opener, however. Astros starter Framber Valdez is often overshadowed by Justin Verlander at the front of the rotation but Valdez has been every bit as good this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 1.15 WHIP, allowing just a shade north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. He catches the Yankees returning home on no rest following consecutive road series’ against the division rival Blue Jays and Rays. Jameson Taillon continues to impress for the Yankees. He checks in with a 3.00 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. While he has allowed over eight hits per nine innings, he’s managed to keep opposing lineups in check by yielding just 1.1 walk and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been terrific this season and certainly of late with the Yanks ‘pen having posted a 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action) and the Astros relief corps’ having recorded a 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (9*). |
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06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a relatively high-scoring extra innings affair last night as the two bullpens took turns coughing up leads late. Generally speaking, both relief corps' have been solid this season, however, and I look for a lower-scoring contest on Wednesday. Triston McKenzie gets the call for the visiting Guardians. He checks in with a 4.37 FIP, largely due to his struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Outside of his 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, his numbers are terrific, most notably a 0.93 WHIP and just 2.96 runs allowed per nine innings. Sonny Gray will counter for the Twins. He's having an even better season than McKenzie, albeit with a smaller sample size (he's missed some time due to injury). Gray checks in with a terrific 2.74 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Opponents have averaged just 2.09 runs per nine innings off of him this season. As I mentioned, last night's contest notwithstanding, the two bullpens have been solid this season. Cleveland's 'pen has posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over its last seven games while Minnesota's relief corps' sports a 3.12 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. While he’s been up-and-down lately, Jays starter Kevin Gausman owns an excellent track record this season, posting an incredible 1.75 FIP through his first 13 starts. He allows too many hits (10.0 per nine innings) but makes up for it by limiting his walks (1.4 per nine innings) and putting up nice strikeout totals (just shy of 10.0 per nine innings). His counterpart on Tuesday will be Dylan Cease. He’s had the opposite problem, issuing more than four walks but limiting opponents to only 7.7 hits per nine innings. He has posted a solid 2.78 FIP this season. Cease enters this outing in terrific form, having not allowed an earned run over his last four starts, covering a span of 21 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-22 | Phillies v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This game features a pair of ‘bet-on’ veteran starting pitchers - at least this season - in Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez and I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. First, let’s talk about the bullpens. The Phillies got a much-needed day off on Monday - their first since June 6th. Their ‘pen has admittedly struggled but that day off should serve them well entering this series against the Rangers. Texas’ relief corps’ has been fairly reliable, recording a collective 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games and a 3.88 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home this season. Back to the starters, Gibson owns a 3.59 FIP and 1.22 WHIP this season, allowing just north of four runs per nine innings. He’s coming off a quality outing against Miami in which he gave up just one earned run over eight innings. Martin Perez is having a career year, recording a 2.10 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first 13 starts this season. That’s not to mention a 2.62 FIP, yielding less than 2.7 runs per nine innings. Take the under (8*). |
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06-20-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Cardinals enter Monday's series-opener in Milwaukee on the heels of five consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, as we have a terrific starting pitching matchup featuring Miles Mikolas - who fell just short of delivering a no-hitter in his last start - and Corbin Burnes, fresh off a masterful performance against a tough Mets lineup last time out. Mikolas owns a 3.36 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season and will be starting on a full five days' rest on Monday. Opponents are averaging just 2.8 runs per nine innings against him this season. While the Cards have lost three of their last four games, their bullpen hasn't been to blame. They entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Corbin Burnes hasn't dominated the way he did last season but has still posted a terrific 3.08 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season. I mentioned his last start against the Mets, it's worth noting that he didn't issue a walk for the first time in five starts in that outing. Burnes has been at his best against division opponents this season, recording a 2.42 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in four starts against the N.L. Central. Incredibly, the Brewers bullpen hasn't allowed a single earned run over its last eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-22 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. This is the best starting pitching matchup on Monday's board as the Giants send Logan Webb to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Webb has posted a 3.08 FIP and 1.18 WHIP this season. Better still, he has recorded a 1.08 WHIP on the road this season. He's also coming off his best start of the campaign as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Royals last week. Fried has been even better, posting a 2.80 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. He wasn't at his best in his most recent start but now he gets to pitch on a full five days' rest again and I expect him to hold the Giants bats in check. Note that opponents are averaging just a shade over 3.0 runs per nine innings against Fried this season. Beyond Webb and Fried, both bullpens have excelled lately, posting sub-2.00 ERA's over the last week. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Charlotte FC v. Columbus OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Charlotte has managed to find the back of the net in four straight and seven of its last eight matches across all competitions. Here, it finds itself in an underdog role away against Columbus, rightfully so given it has had a miserable time preventing goals away from home, giving up 13 in just seven road contests this season. Columbus hasn't exactly been explosive offensively, managing nine goals in six home matches, however it should have little trouble breaking through here, noting that you would have to go back five matches to find the last time Charlotte posted a clean sheet. With the Crew sitting in the bottom half of the MLS Eastern Conference standings it can make a serious move here as it sits just three points back of Charlotte - which finds itself in seventh place in the conference, three spots north of Columbus. Expect goals on Saturday night. Take the over (8*). |
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06-18-22 | Calgary v. Hamilton UNDER 45.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Hamilton at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in much different results last week as the Stampeders prevailed in a high-scoring affair against the Alouettes while the Tiger-Cats ended up losing by 17 points in what was a very low-scoring game until the final few minutes when the Riders put two touchdowns on the board. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks. The Stampeders are still easing QB Bo Levi Mitchell back from injury and now he's dealing with a nagging foot ailment but will play on Saturday. Last week against what I would consider a middle-of-the-pack Als defense, Mitchell completed just 21-of-34 passes for 199 yards a touchdown and an interception. I'm not convinced the Stamps will be eager to throw him to the wolves against a terrific Ti-Cats defense on the road on Saturday. Hamilton will need to hang its hat on its defense - at least until it gets things figured out on offense. Dane Evans is supposed to take over the reins from Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback this season but he didn't look great last week, with Matt Shiltz entering the game for extended action. The Ti-Cats ground attack boasts some capable backs but no true workhorse or standout capable of churning out much-needed yardage in the three-down Canadian game. While I wasn't particularly high on the Stamps defense entering the season, I did like the way they shut down the Als in the second half last week, allowing just a single field goal. As I alluded to earlier, Hamilton didn't give up a touchdown until the final minutes of last week's 30-13 loss in Saskatchewan and we know how tough the Ti-Cats 'D' can be at Tim Hortons Field. As a final note, the Ti-Cats will be missing two key cogs on their offensive line due to injury this week, further hampering their offense. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Yankees bats came alive against back-of-the-rotation starter Ross Stripling and the Blue Jays bullpen last night. I do look for Alek Manoah to do a better job of keeping them in check on Saturday. Note that Manoah has posted a 2.95 FIP and 0.91 WHIP this season. His counterpart on Saturday has been almost as good in Jameson Taillon of the Yankees. He has recorded a 3.15 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Better still, Taillon owns a 1.01 WHIP in 27 2/3 innings of work on the road this season while Manoah has posted a ridiculous 0.74 WHIP in 40 1/3 innings pitched at home. All due respect to both offenses in this matchup but I think we're in for a pitcher's duel. Take the under (8*). |
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06-17-22 | Cardinals v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Adam Wainwright has turned back the clock for the Cardinals this season, entering Friday's start on the heels of three straight outings lasting exactly seven innings, allowing just five earned runs over that stretch. He's posted a 3.51 FIP this season with opponents averaging just under 3.0 runs per nine innings against him. It's been a similar story for Red Sox starter Michael Wacha. The former Cardinal has recorded a 3.96 FIP and a 1.00 WHIP, giving up only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Wacha did labor through his most recent start but that came on the road. Here at Fenway Park he has posted a 0.86 ERA to go along with an identical 0.86 WHIP in four starts spanning 21 innings of work this season. Take the under (8*). |
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06-17-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 12-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees are coming off a string of low-scoring games this week and I expect to chalk up another on Friday as they head north to face the Blue Jays. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He has been quietly effective this season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 0.98 WHIP. Opponents are scoring just 2.7 runs per nine innings against the left-hander. In eight career starts against the Jays he has posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Ross Stripling gets another turn in the rotation for the Blue Jays. To say that he's pitched well this season would be an understatement. He's exceeded expectations in what was supposed to only be a spot starting role, recording a 2.98 FIP and 1.00 WHIP. Like Montgomery he's done a tremendous job of keeping runs off the board, allowing only 3.35 runs per nine innings. With both bullpens capable of pitching effectively in the late innings, we'll confidently back the 'under' at a very generous number here. Take the under (8*). |
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06-17-22 | Storm v. Sun UNDER 161.5 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday. Seattle has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total as its three opponents on its current road trip have quite simply shot the lights out. Note that the Storm do check in having held seven consecutive opponents to fewer than 70 field goal attempts. I don't think they'll have any interest in getting involved in a track meet as they play their fourth road game in the last eight nights, against a Connecticut squad that just put up 105 points in a double-digit win over Atlanta two nights ago. The Sun usually rank among the top defensive teams in the WNBA but like the Storm, they've run into some hot-shooting opponents of late. Note that Connecticut is still allowing just 28-of-66 shooting on average at home this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Storm coming off three straight games totalling at least 155 points over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Sun have seen the 'under' cash at a 13-5 clip when coming off four or five ATS wins over their last six games over the last two seasons, which is also the situation tonight. Take the under (8*). |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-22 | Montreal v. Toronto UNDER 50 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Argos will make their season debut as they host the East Division rival Alouettes on Thursday. We won with Montreal plus the points in its three-point loss in Calgary last week. In that game, the Als defense actually held up better than expected as far as I'm concerned. While it did get off to a tough start, allowing two touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes and change, it then held the Stampeders out of the end zone until two minutes into the fourth quarter. I like the fact that it catches a new-look Toronto offense that has yet to see regular season game action on Thursday. The Argos added RB Andrew Harris in the offseason and I'm confident he'll be the focal point of their offense early in the campaign. I'm just not completely sold on QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson being a first-rate starting QB in the CFL. On the flip side, the jury is still out as to whether Als QB Vernon Adams Jr. belongs in that category as well. Here, Montreal will be without standout RB William Stanback. He's the type of do-it-all CFL back that leaves a hole in the offense when he's sidelined. I do think the Als will be hesitant to turn Adams loose coming off a loss here in Week 2 against what should be one of the better defenses in the league in Toronto. Take the under (8*). |
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06-15-22 | Orlando City SC v. New England OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
MLS Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Orlando City SC at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time a match totalled 'under' 2.5 goals. Orlando City enters Wednesday's contest having seen seven of its last nine matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals while New England has had five of its last seven contests go 'over' that total. Not since April 30th, in a match where its opponent Inter Miami CF was handed two red cards, has New England posted a clean sheet - that's eight matches back. Orlando recorded a clean sheet against Toronto FC four matches back but that's been its only shutout posted in its last nine contests. With this match being played in Foxborough, with the Revolution looking to leapfrog Orlando - which currently holds down fifth place in the Eastern Conference - and jump into the playoff picture by grabbing all three points, I expect an aggressive gameplan from the home side here. That does leave it somewhat vulnerable, however, with Orlando having found the back of the net in seven consecutive trips to the pitch. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. You won't find a better pitching matchup on Wednesday's MLB board as the Rays hand the ball to Shane McClanahan against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. Cortes has really come into his own this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. His 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is impressive but pales in comparison to that of McClanahan, who has recorded a 7.5-1 K:BB ratio. McClanahan also owns a 2.45 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. The deeper you go with both starters, the more impressive the numbers get. While we are dealing with a relatively low posted total, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (8*). |
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06-15-22 | Reds v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. Terrific pitching matchup here as a rejuvenated Luis Castillo takes the hill for the Reds against Zac Gallen for the D'Backs. Gallen has struggled through his last few outings but what better spot to bounce back than at home against the light-hitting Reds. Cincinnati entered Tuesday's game averaging 3.0 runs per game on .211 hitting on the road this season. Gallen, despite his recent issues, still checks in with a 3.68 FIP and 1.07 WHIP this season. Castillo owns a 3.32 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. Both starters allow lees than 1.0 home run per nine innings. Take the under (8*). |
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06-14-22 | Royals v. Giants OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We settled for a 'push' with the 'over' in the opener of this series last night. We were probably fortunate to get the 'push' given the game saw just 11 total hits. Here, I expect more runs on the board as the Royals send Kris Bubic to the hill. Bubic has posted a 6.54 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings of work this season. He's been tagged for just shy of 12 hits per nine innings. Opponents are averaging north of nine runs per nine innings against the left-hander this season. After struggling to make good contact against right-hander Brady Singer last night, the Giants will be pleased to face the southpaw Bubic here, noting that they've been at their best against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Logan Webb is the Giants ace but I will point out that he'll be pitching on short rest (four days) for a third consecutive start on Tuesday. He has allowed at least three runs in eight of his last 10 starts with opponents averaging just under four runs per nine innings against him this season. The Royals bats were quiet last night but had delivered at least 10 hits in five consecutive games prior to that. Take the over (8*). |
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06-14-22 | Storm v. Lynx UNDER 158.5 | 81-79 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Minnesota at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Seattle is coming off consecutive 'over' results in a two-game set in Dallas. The Wings shot exceptionally well in those two contests, knocking down 30 and 31 field goals. I don't expect the short-handed Lynx to do the same against the Storm on Tuesday. Note that Minnesota is coming off a strong shooting performance of its own, making good on 32-of-71 field goal attempts but that came against the lowly Indiana Fever - arguably the worst defensive team in the league. It will face a much different challenge here. Note that in the first meeting between these two teams this season, a healthier Minnesota squad got off a whopping 79 FG attempts but still scored just 74 points. Seattle has been ultra-efficient offensively over its last several games but certainly isn't playing at all that fast of a pace. The Storm have attempted just 61, 67 and 62 field goals in their last three contests. I suspect we'll see them 'manage' proceedings should they build a lead here, noting that they're in the midst of a five-game in 10-night road trip. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times Minnesota has come off consecutive home losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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06-14-22 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' went 2-0-1 when these two clubs met in a three-game series in Oakland earlier this month but it's not as if that series was particularly high-scoring as all three games totalled eight runs or less. Here, we're dealing with a higher total with the scene shifting to Boston and I believe it will prove too high. Jared Koenig gets the nod for the A's, making his second big league start. His first didn't go particularly well but it could have been worse. He lasted four innings, allowing four earned runs on five hits against a red hot Braves lineup, on the road no less. Koenig got the call-up after pitching exceptionally well at AAA this season, recording a 2.21 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 53 innings of work. After a shaky start to the season, Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has really turned it around, lowering his FIP to 3.56 and his WHIP to 1.14. He's giving up just north of seven hits and right around 3.8 hits per nine innings. He's faced the A's twice since last season and on both occasions tossed seven shutout innings. With both teams checking in following an off-day on Monday, it should be all hands on deck as far as the bullpens go. Take the under (8*). |
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06-14-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' went 2-0-1 when these two clubs met in a three-game series in Oakland earlier this month but it's not as if that series was particularly high-scoring as all three games totalled eight runs or less. Here, we're dealing with a higher total with the scene shifting to Boston and I believe it will prove too high. Jared Koenig gets the nod for the A's, making his second big league start. His first didn't go particularly well but it could have been worse. He lasted four innings, allowing four earned runs on five hits against a red hot Braves lineup, on the road no less. Koenig got the call-up after pitching exceptionally well at AAA this season, recording a 2.21 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 53 innings of work. After a shaky start to the season, Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has really turned it around, lowering his FIP to 3.56 and his WHIP to 1.14. He's giving up just north of seven hits and right around 3.8 hits per nine innings. He's faced the A's twice since last season and on both occasions tossed seven shutout innings. With both teams checking in following an off-day on Monday, it should be all hands on deck as far as the bullpens go. Take the under (8*). |
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06-14-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees beat up on Cubs pitching all weekend long but after an off-day on Monday, I suspect they'll find the going much tougher against the Rays pitching staff on Tuesday. Corey Kluber will get the start for Tampa Bay. He's pitched well this season, including in a previous start against New York in which he gave up just one earned run over six innings back on May 28th. Kluber owns a 3.65 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, highlighted by just 1.5 walks per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, who looks to bounce back from an ugly outing in Minnesota last week. In that start, Cole was rocked for seven earned runs including five home runs in just 2 1/3 innings. It happens. New York actually went on to win that game by a 10-7 score so no harm, no foul I suppose. In spite of that poor performance, Cole has still posted a solid 3.58 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season. He's allowed just north of seven hits and 3.6 runs per nine innings. Note that Cole was on the mound for that game against Kluber on May 28th and he also gave up just one earned run over six innings. I like the fact that both teams follow an off-day here, giving their bullpens some much-needed rest. Both 'pens have performed well lately with the Rays relief corps recording a 1.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over their last seven games and the Yanks 'pen checking in with a 1.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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06-14-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Cardinals won by a 7-5 score. The 'over' has now cashed in three straight games involving the Cards and I expect that streak to continue in Game 1 of Tuesday's double-header in St. Louis. Pirates starter JT Brubaker hasn't pitched well this season, posting a 4.35 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. Interestingly, that FIP is actually lower than his career number of 4.71. Cards rookie Matthew Liberatore has been far worse, even though we are talking about a small sample size of just three starts. He has recorded a 7.45 FIP and 1.85 WHIP. He checks in allowing over 11 hits and five walks per nine innings. Add in two struggling bullpens and I'm counting on plenty of offense on Tuesday. Take the over (8*). |
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06-13-22 | Royals v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Scoring runs hasn't been a problem for the Royals lately. Keeping their opponents' bats at bay has been. Kansas City checks in having scored 8, 7, 8 , 4 and 7 runs over its last five games, recording double-digit hit totals in each of those contests. On the flip side, they've been lit up for 10+ hits in seven of their last eight games, allowing 5+ runs on six occasions over that stretch. I expect more of the same on Monday, even as they travel to San Francisco to face a Giants club that has seen the 'under' go 5-0-2 over its last seven contests. After facing Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias over the last two games, Royals starter Brady Singer will offer a welcome change of pace for the Giants on Monday. Singer is allowing well north of nine hits and just shy of two home runs per nine innings this season with a disappointing 4.16 FIP. He hasn't issued a single walk over his last three starts yet still gave up 13 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings, which is telling. Giants starter Alex Wood is coming off a dominant seven-inning performance against the Rockies last time out but those type of performances have been few and far between. He sports a 4.74 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in five home starts this season. Like Singer, he is also giving up north of nine hits per nine innings and while he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, he does yield 2.4 walks per nine innings. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-17 when the Royals play on the road against N.L. West opponents with those games averaging 10.0 total runs. The 'over' is also 16-6 with the Giants coming off an underdog win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 8.3 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-22 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While it may not garner much attention, Monday's series-opener between the Marlins and Phillies features a tremendous starting pitching matchup between Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola. Alcantara is an early N.L. Cy Young candidate - or should be at least. He probably doesn't get enough press since he pitches in Miami where the Marlins haven't been relevant for years. All Alcantara has done is post a 1.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP not to mention a sub-2.00 FIP (1.96). While his 2.6 walks per nine innings are somewhat concerning, he's negated those by allowing just 5.9 hits and striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings. Aaron Nola is coming off one of his best outings of the young season for the Phillies. He has seen his ERA drop to 3.50 and WHIP to 0.88. He's right there with Alcantara with a 3.24 FIP. Nola does allow right around a hit more per nine innings than Alcantara but also issues just 1.2 walk on average. While both bullpens have had their issues at times this season, I don't rate either offense all that high and feel we're in for a pitcher's duel on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-22 | Israel v. Iceland OVER 2.5 | 2-2 | Win | 110 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iceland and Israel at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with this play. These two countries just met on the pitch back on June 2nd and the result was a 2-2 draw. Israel has now gone 10 consecutive matches without recording a clean sheet and I expect that streak to remain intact as it travels to face Iceland for a rematch on Monday. It's a similar story for Iceland as it had conceded at least a goal in seven consecutive contests prior to posting a 1-0 victory over minnow San Marino in an international friendly on June 9th. Both sides are vulnerable at the back-end and both have what I would consider second-rate keepers between the sticks. I also feel that both offensive attacks are very underrated - Israel in particular. Note that the 'over' 2.5 has now come through in nine of Israel's last 10 matches while Iceland has conceded first in five of its last six contests, with both sides scoring in six of its last eight. We'll take a flyer with the 'over' at a generous return again here. Take the over (6*). |
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06-12-22 | Storm v. Wings UNDER 159.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Dallas at 4 pm et on Sunday. We're dealing with a considerably higher total than we saw in the front half of this two-game set between the Storm and Wings in Dallas on Friday. That game finished with a whopping 177 points. Keep in mind, these two teams just met last week in Seattle and reached only 119 points. I believe Sunday's total will prove too high. Seattle absolutely shot the lights out on Friday night, knocking down 37-of-67 field goal attempts. The Storm also turned in an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance, allowing 30 made field goals. Here, I look for Seattle to 'manage' proceedings somewhat as it continues a tough five-game in 10-night road trip. Dallas checks in averaging just 26-of-68 shooting here at home this season. On the flip side, the Wings have held opponents to 29-of-64 shooting in the host role and should make the necessary adjustments after getting lit up by the Storm on Friday. Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the Storm coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 153.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-22 | Portugal v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Portugal at 2:45 pm et on Sunday. No Cristiano Ronaldo, among others, for Portugal on Sunday but I still expect it to find the back of the net without much resistance from a Swiss side that has had a miserable time dealing with numerous key defensive absences and ailments in Nations League play. Switzerland is now winless in its last five matches, failing to post a clean sheet in any of those contests and I would anticipate a similar story unfolding here. I do, however, expect the Swiss to find some offensive success here after getting shut out by Spain last time out. Of course, that was their second straight match failing to score after a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the same Portugal side they'll face on Sunday back on June 5th. They're likely to face a slightly weaker version this time around, however, opening the door for them to perhaps close the gap. With Portugal having struck first in five of its last six matches, Switzerland will undoubtedly come out with an attacking mindset here as it looks to finally break the seal again having not scored since a 2-1 loss to the Czech Republic on June 2nd. Take the over (10*). |
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06-11-22 | Aces v. Sparks UNDER 174.5 | 89-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The most recent meeting between these two teams saw the Aces set a WNBA three-point record in a 104-76 rout, easily cruising 'over' the posted total on that night. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however, yet we're being afforded a considerably higher total. The Sparks have had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, attempting only 56, 56 and 59 field goals over their last three games. That's obviously not going to cut it against a team as strong as the Aces. With that being said, I'm not convinced the Sparks are interested in getting involved in another track meet here. Las Vegas hasn't played in nearly a week, last taking the floor in an 84-78 win over Dallas last Sunday. Note that only one of the Aces last four games has managed to go 'over' the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Wednesday but it wasn't nearly as straightforward as it should have been with the fourth quarter totalling just 34 points. I expect to see some carry-over from that low-scoring quarter of basketball in Game 4 on Friday night. Credit the Celtics for doing a great job of keeping the explosive Warriors offense in check so far in this series. They've held Golden State to 88, 86 and 78 field goal attempts through the first three games. They've also limited the Warriors to fewer than 40 made field goals in all three contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Boston allowed an opponent to make good on 40+ field goals. On the flip side, note that Golden State has held eight straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Boston did knock down 43 field goals in Game 3 on Wednesday but we've seen positive responses from the Warriors defense in similar situations lately. The last three times they've allowed 40+ made field goals, the Warriors have held opponents to 34, 37 and 30 made field goals in their next game, yielding just 98 points per game in those three contests. The 'under' is 68-48 with Golden State coming off a loss over the last three seasons while the 'under' has gone 32-18 with Boston checking in as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case at the time of writing. We'll continue to go against the adjustments made to the total in this series and call for a lower-scoring contest than expected on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The CFL made a number of offseason rule changes in an effort to increase scoring after it was down across the league, particularly in the early stages of last season. Last night, we saw the season-opener between the Alouettes and Stampeders total 57 points. With that being said, that result had more to do with the early execution of the two offenses than it did any rule changes. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as the Redblacks challenge the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers in Winnipeg on Friday. Ottawa overhauled its roster in the offseason as wholesale changes were necessary following a dismal 2021 campaign - particularly on the offensive side of the football. In comes former Tiger-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli to run the offense, with plenty of other weapons added to the roster as well. One of those weapons will serve as the backfield leader in veteran RB William Powell. Unfortunately, he's injured and has been ruled out for Friday's game. I do think it will take some time for Masoli to mesh with his new receiving corps. This game serves as a 'baptism by fire' against perhaps the league's most dominant defense in Winnipeg. I don't expect the Redblacks to put too much on Masoli's plate here, even if they'd love to open things up right out of the gate. They can afford to stay somewhat conservative offensively because their defense has the chance to be terrific, with a number of new recruits on board. Keep in mind, the Redblacks defense was solid at times last season, it was simply on the field too much and injuries ultimately took their toll. I love the additions they made in the offseason with Patrick Levels and Money Hunter among those coming over from the Als in particular. Speaking of defense, the Blue Bombers are once again loaded in that department. That's certainly nothing new after they gave up a grand total of only 15 touchdowns all of last season. While the offense adds standout WR Greg Ellingson, it loses RB Andrew Harris. It remains to be seen whether RB Brady Oliveira can pick up the slack following Harris' departure - it will likely be more of a running back by committee situation in the early going. While the Bombers are favored heavily in this game, I do expect a hard-fought affair and believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Pirates v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This game doesn't exactly feature a matchup of household names when it comes to the two starting pitchers. Not yet at least. Both young starters have impressed in the early going this season, however, and I'm counting on them both to hold up on Friday night also. Roansy Contreras got a very big taste of the big leagues last year, logging only three innings for the Pirates after a late season call-up. In those three innings he struck out four and walked only one without allowing a single earned run. He's picked up where he left off this season, giving up just five earned runs in 23 1/3 innings of work. He enters Friday's start with an impressive 3.18 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. He's allowing just over six hits per nine innings while striking out an average of 10 per nine innings. If you can believe it, Braves starter Spencer Strider has been even better. Like Contreras, he had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season, pitching just 2 1/3 innings. Here in 2022 he has recorded a terrific 2.19 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 32 2/3 innings of work. He's striking out an incredible 13.5 hitters per nine innings while allowing just 5.5 hits. Command has been a bit of an issue as he walks five per nine innings but I'm not convinced the Pirates have the offense capable of making him pay. We're working with a fairly high total in this game by today's MLB standards. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (8*). |
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06-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the pitching matchup here as the D'Backs and Phillies open their series in the City of Brotherly Love on Friday evening. The D'Backs have to be a little road-weary at this point as they continue on their 10-game road trip on the opposite side of the country. Zac Gallen is certainly capable of giving them a lift on Friday though, noting that he has posted a terrific 3.25 FIP and 0.96 WHIP in 56 1/3 innings of work this season. Kyle Gibson hasn't been quite as impressive for the Phillies but that doesn't mean he hasn't pitched well. He enters Friday's start sporting a 3.46 WHIP and is right here with Gallen in terms of home runs and walks allowed per nine innings, not to mention strikeouts per nine innings. Where we do see a gap is in hits allowed per nine innings, as Gallen has given up 2.6 fewer. However, that should be somewhat negated by the fact that the Snakes aren't exactly an elite offensive club and I do feel Gibson is more than capable of taming their lineup here. The Phillies bats came alive against the reeling Brewers in Milwaukee but I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check against Gallen. It was enough of a struggle for the D'Backs to put together big innings against the lowly Reds and things certainly won't get any easier for them here. Expect runs to come at a premium on Friday. Take the under (8*). |
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06-09-22 | Lightning v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've been riding the 'under' in this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the scene shifts back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 on Thursday. While I hesitate to say that the Bolts have 'solved' Rangers all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin, they've certainly put a dent in his armor over the last couple of games, scoring six goals on the Hart Trophy candidate. Note that all six of those goals have come in the last four-and-a-half periods. Shesterkin has looked a little tired, and gets little relief here with just one day between games once again. The Rangers struggled to sustain any sort of offensive attack in the last two games in Tampa but we should see a different story unfold back in New York, noting that the Blueshirts average 3.4 goals per game on home ice and put nine pucks in the back of the net in Games 1 and 2. The Bolts haven't been nearly as stingy on the road as they've been at home this season, allowing 3.1 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Lightning playing on the road off five or six wins over their last seven games this season, leading to an average total of 7.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers have posted a 12-4 o/u mark when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.3 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-22 | Spain v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Spain at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. The Swiss are in tough right now, missing a number of key cogs at the back-end and things certainly won't get any easier against a Spanish side still hungry for its first victory in Nations League play on Thursday. With Fabian Schar, Nico Elvedi and Manuel Akanji all in line to miss Thursday's match, it's going to be awfully difficult for Switzerland to contend with Spain's offensive attack. While Spain is known for possessing the ball but not always fruitful in attack in recent years, it would be wise to apply all the pressure it can on Switzerland's leaky, undermanned defense. On the flip side, Switzerland was held off the scoreboard entirely in a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Portugal last time out. I do think we see it respond with a favorable performance here in Geneva on Thursday. Note that it has managed to find the back of the net in three of its last four matches with Spain, despite receiving red cards in each of the last two meetings. Spain has allowed at least a goal in three of its last four matches going back to March, only managing to keep Iceland off the scoreboard in a friendly. I don't have a lot of confidence in underwhelming Spain keeper Unai Simon posting a clean sheet here. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series and the 'under' in Game 2. Both results were of the 'rocking chair' variety. Here, we'll continue to follow the zig-zag pattern for another game and back the 'over' as the scene shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Wednesday. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series but still managed to score 108 and 107 points in those contests. Note that they haven't been held to less than 40 field goals in three consecutive games since March. After Golden State got off 88 and 86 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2 I could certainly see the pace ticking up a bit here in Beantown, noting that Boston allowed Miami to attempt 92 and 90 field goals in Games 3 and 4 at home last round. Boston has allowed the opposition to get off 88+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 games overall. Needless to say, the Celtics will be in bounce-back mode offensively after a dismal showing in Game 2. They managed to make good on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts in that contest after shooting a blistering 43-for-85 in Game 1. A return home should help, noting the C's have averaged 40 made field goals per contest at TD Garden this season. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams in Beantown saw neither team shoot particularly well with Golden State knocking down 39 field goals and Boston countering with 36, yet that contest still reached 218 total points. I believe an over-adjustment to the total has been made once again after the low-scoring result in Game 2. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-22 | Fever v. Sun UNDER 165.5 | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Considering the first meeting between these two teams this season saw a closing total of just 156 points, we're dealing with a considerable adjustment to the number here. Keep in mind, that first matchup was the first of a two-game set between the two squads here in Connecticut with the second seeing a closing total of 161.5. Both games went 'over' the total although the second matchup reached just 162 points, which would have stayed 'under' the total we're dealing with tonight. I think we see a bit of 'game management' from the Sun as they play their fifth game in the last nine nights (in four different cities) on Wednesday (before hosting Chicago on Friday). Note that Indiana has gone cold on its current road trip, knocking down just 25 and 23 field goals in losses in New York and Atlanta. Connecticut held Indiana to just 63 field goal attempts in both previous meetings this season. The Fever shot the lights out in the first matchup before the Sun made the necessary adjustments prior to the second. While Connecticut has seen the 'over' cash in each of its last four games, the pace hasn't necessarily been there as the Sun have gotten off just 59 and 58 FG attempts in their last two contests. Look for Wednesday's total to prove to be too high. Take the under (8*). |
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06-08-22 | Poland v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Nations League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Belgium and Poland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Belgium's 4-1 drubbing at the hands of the Netherlands in its Nations League opener last week and I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play here as it hosts Poland in Brussels on Wednesday. We certainly didn't see Belgium's 'A' game against Holland as it fielded a makeshift squad and lost Romelu Lukaku just 27 minutes into the match due to injury. It isn't expected to have standout goalkeeper Thibault Courtois for this contest and I'm confident in predicting another shaky performance from Club Brugge keeper Simon Mignolet in Courtois' absence. Poland didn't get a goal from Robert Lewandowksi but still managed to come away victorious by a 2-1 score against Wales last time out. I'm confident we'll see the all-world striker find the back of the net in this contest. Note that both teams have scored in six of Belgium's last seven matches across all competitions and not surprisingly, six of those seven contests went 'over' 2.5 total goals as well. After such a dismal showing against the Netherlands we can anticipate a positive response from Belgium here, particularly at home, but I'm not convinced it keeps a clean sheet against a confident Polish side that is undefeated in its last three matches. Take the over (10*). |
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06-07-22 | England v. Germany OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Germany and England at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off rather uninspiring Nations League openers with England falling 1-0 to Hungary in a stunner in Budapest and Germany settling for a 1-1 draw against an Italy squad that is a shell of its former self. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as these two soccer powerhouses put on a show at Allianz Arena in Munich. Germany was fortunate to give up just a single goal against the Italians last time out. Its defense has appeared leaky at times while goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, while boasting an excellent track record, has struggled not only for his home country, but also for Bayern Munich in recent months. On the flip side, England didn't field its best squad against Hungary but we can anticipate changes to its lineup as it looks to avoid falling deeper into potential Nations League relegation on Tuesday. While I do feel England is rock solid at the back-end, it will be a difficult task trying to keep the German offense at bay for 90 minutes on Tuesday. Note that Germany remains undefeated in its last 10 matches across all competitions and has been first to score in five of its last six contests. Take the over (8*). |
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06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Monday. Bettors are still waiting for a return to the form that saw Game 1 of this series total a whopping 14 goals. We've cashed with the 'under' in each of the last two games and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Monday as we haven't seen much of an adjustment to the total at all at most books. Both teams will be missing some offensive firepower in this one with Evander Kane suspended for one game for his hit on Nazem Kadri (who will also be sidelined due to injury). The Oilers have now allowed 4+ goals in four straight games - the first time they've done that since January. On the flip side, the Avs have scored 4+ goals in each of the first three games in this series - the first time they've scored four goals or more in three consecutive games since January as well. While I've been critical of Oilers goaltender Mike Smith at times, he certainly hasn't been the problem in this series. In fact, in Game 3 he kept Edmonton in the game early, making a number of key saves on an Avs two-man advantage. Meanwhile, Pavel Francouz has filled in admirably for an injured Darcy Kuemper for Colorado. With Leon Draisaitl clearly not 100% healthy, the Oilers haven't been quite as much of a handful offensively, Connor McDavid's exploits aside. Here, we'll note that Edmonton has posted a 6-15 o/u record when playing at home off a home loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons with that situation totalling an average of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Oilers having allowed 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, resulting in an average total of 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-22 | Albania v. Iceland UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iceland and Albania at 2:45 pm et on Monday. Tough turnaround for Iceland here as it returns home from a trip to Israel that ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw. Things won't get any easier here as Iceland hosts Albania, which did not play its opening match which had been previously scheduled against Russia (for obvious reasons). Albania is the very definition of a 'tough out'. The difficulty for Albania here, however, is that it will be missing its two best attackers in Chelsea striker Armando Broja and Rey Manaj due to Covid protocols and injury, respectively. The Albanians are strong at the back-end, however, and will hope to scratch and claw their way to at least a point in this match. That would likely also be a favorable result in the eyes of Iceland. It certainly came away disappointed by the 2-2 draw in Israel if only because it led by a goal in the closing minutes before allowing the equalizer. With a rather punchless Albanian starting XI, Iceland may not find the same difficulty in keeping its opponent under wraps on Monday. Note that Iceland has gone winless across its last seven matches and has conceded first in five of its last six contests so it will certainly be focused on keeping its defensive shape in this one. Take the under (8*). |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 216 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 58 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Golden State at 8 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday. The pace certainly wasn't there for a game in the 220's on Thursday. Both teams simply shot exceptionally well from three-point range - Boston in particular as it knocked down a whopping 21 threes. We saw a similar story unfold in Game 2 last round against Miami as the Celtics hit 20+ three-pointers in a 127-point explosion. They never scored more than 103 points again in that seven-game series. Note that Boston allows just 12 made threes per game on the road this season while Golden State gives up an identical 12 threes per contest at home. The Celtics have now held nine of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - an incredible feat in today's NBA. The Warriors allowed Boston to make good on 43 field goals in the opener of this series but hasn't allowed consecutive opponents to hit more than 40 field goals since Game 5 against Memphis in the second round. In Game 6, Golden State held Memphis to just 96 points on 34 made field goals with that game easily staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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06-05-22 | Mystics v. Sky OVER 156 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Chicago at 6 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' the last time these two teams met as they fell just short of the total with 155 points. We're actually dealing with an even lower posted total this time around as Washington enters this contest on a seven-game 'under' streak while Chicago has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last three games. Expect those streaks to end on Sunday. Washington is suddenly pushing the pace a bit, getting off 70+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games. It should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against the Sky, who have allowed 70+ field goal attempts in six straight contests. In the most recent meeting between these two teams Washington simply couldn't make good on its wealth of opportunities, knocking down just 27 of 72 FG attempts. The Mystics enter this game off three straight quality performances in which they made good on 28, 33 and 28 field goals. Chicago hasn't fared particularly well offensively in its last few games but back home, where it averages 31-of-70 shooting, I expect it to bounce back. Note that Washington, while a terrific defensive team, has still allowed 28 and 30 made field goals over its last two road contests. Take the over (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3 pm et on Sunday. While the scene will shift to Tampa for Game 3 of this series on Sunday afternoon, I'm not convinced that means the floodgates will suddenly open for the Lightning and we'll see a high-scoring affair. Nothing has come easy for the Bolts through the first two games of this series and noting that Brayden Point remains sidelined, I don't see that changing on Sunday. They're going to need to grind it out and that's just fine as they've actually thrived playing that style at home this season, going 31-15 while allowing just 2.6 goals per game. On the flip side, we'll note that the Rangers average just 2.9 goals per game on the road this season and check in sporting an 11-19 o/u mark when coming off four wins in their last five games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 19-8 with New York playing on the road with the total set at 5.5 this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.2 goals. Take the under (6*). |
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06-05-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Toronto at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a pair of wild, high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. We have a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup with Devin Smeltzer going for the Twins against Kevin Gausman of the Jays. Smeltzer has done nothing but impress in four big league starts this season, recording a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Since getting tagged for four home runs in a start against Cleveland back in June 2019, he hasn't allowed another home run in his last nine MLB starts. He has also issued only four walks in 24 innings of work this season. Kevin Gausman has worked 26 1/3 innings in day games this season and has yet to allow a single home run across those four starts. While he's struggled in the past against the Twins, he hasn't faced them since 2018 when I think we can all agree he was a much different pitcher just getting his career started with the Orioles. While the Jays bullpen hasn't been great lately, I'm not as concerned about that relief corps against a depleted Twins lineup. On the flip side, the Twins 'pen has posted a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the under (8*). |
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06-04-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Edmonton on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-7 with the Oilers having allowed 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here and also 9-3 when coming off back-to-back games giving up 4+ goals - also the situation tonight. In fact, the 'under' is a long-term 134-102 with Edmonton coming off consecutive contests in which it allowed 4+ goals. While the Avalanche have goaltending concerns with Darcy Kuemper potentially sidelined again, they have to feel pretty good about what backup Pavel Francouz gave them in Game 2, posting a shutout after the Oilers scored six times in Game 1. Despite dropping a 4-0 decision, Oilers goaltender Mike Smith held up far better in Game 2 than he did in the series-opener as he was once again peppered with 40 shots. We can anticipate Edmonton throwing everything it has at Colorado defensively in this one. You would have to go back four meetings here in Edmonton to find the last time the Avs scored more than three goals in a game on this ice. Take the under (8*). |
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06-04-22 | Red Sox v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Boston cruised to a 7-2 victory in the opener of this series last night, adding to the A's misery here in Oakland. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon as the Red Sox send Nick Pivetta to the hill against Paul Blackburn for the A's. After a rocky start to the season, Pivetta has gotten himself on a serious roll, allowing just six earned runs over 34 innings in his last five outings. He pitched here in Oakland last July 4th, striking out 10 over seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in a 1-0 Boston victory. Blackburn didn't make many mistakes last time out against Houston but he paid for the few he did, including a pair of home runs, allowing four earned runs on five hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-1 loss. In five daytime starts this season Blackburn has posted a 2.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, covering a span of 28 2/3 innings. He'll be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career today. While both bullpens have struggled lately I do believe both relief corps' are better than their recent numbers indicate. We can also take solace in the fact that the A's average a woeful 2.6 runs per game at home while it's generally been a case of feast-or-famine for the Red Sox offense and after scoring exactly seven runs in consecutive games, I expect them to cool off against a solid pitcher in Blackburn on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-04-22 | England v. Hungary UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hungary and England at 12 noon et on Saturday. While many of the early Nations League affairs have featured goals aplenty (and we've taken full advantage), I don't expect anything of that sort as England challenges Hungary on Saturday. The Three Lions have a number of injury doubts heading into this one. It does come in riding a nine-match undefeated streak, however, a run that has a good chance of remaining intact here. England's main focus at this point is on rounding into form ahead of November's World Cup in Qatar. While England has scored a whopping 20 goals across its last three matches, 10 of those came in a rout of San Marino last November. It obviously faces a much different challenge here. Hungary has seen four of its last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals including a 1-1 draw against England last October. You would have to go back three matches to find the last time the Hungarians scored more than once in a match as it mustered just one goal across two contests against Serbia and Northern Ireland back in March. Noting that Hungary has gone the last four meetings with England without recording a clean sheet, I would anticipate it focusing on keeping its shape defensively in this one and waiting for an opportunity for veteran striker Adam Szalai to counter. I'm just not sure there will be a wealth of those chances here. Take the under (6*). |
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06-03-22 | Braves v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring slugfest between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday. Max Fried continues to lead the Braves rotation, posting incredibly consistent numbers over the last few seasons. He checks in with a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three road starts this season. While pitching at Coors Field is a challenge, I'm confident he'll be up for it, noting that he's lasted at least into the sixth inning in all 10 of his starts this season. Rockies starter Chad Kuhl is underrated to be sure. He has held up well at hitter-friendly Coors Field this season, recording a 1.04 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings of work. Eight of his nine starts this season have totalled eight runs or less. Note that Kuhl faced the Braves once last season as a member of the Pirates and the result was a 2-1 victory as he gave up just one earned run over six innings. The Rockies bullpen will always be a concern when it comes to playing 'unders' but I believe we're working with a high enough total that dealing with their relief corps is worth the risk. Take the under (10*). |
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06-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Most are looking to play the 'under' in this matchup between two lowly National League squads, pushing the total down from 8.0 to 7.5. I believe it will prove too low. We have a middle-of-the-road starting pitching matchup between Merrill Kelly and J.T. Brubaker. Kelly owns a 4.55 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six nighttime starts this season and has really struggled lately, recording a ridiculous 10.50 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over his last three outings. J.T. Brubaker hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two starts but let's not get too excited. In those two starts he worked 11 2/3 innings allowing 11 hits while issuing four walks and striking out only seven. They were favorable matchups to be sure, at home against the Rockies (who struggle mightily on the road) and at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego. Even if the starters don't struggle in this one, the bullpens are capable of blowing up in an instant. The D'Backs 'pen has posted a 5.31 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. The Buccos relief corps owns a collective 4.15 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home, converting only five saves while blowing four. Take the over (8*). |
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06-03-22 | Denmark v. France OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between France and Denmark at 2:45 pm et on Friday. When these two squads last met in 2018 they played to a 0-0 draw. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday, however, as they tangle in their Nations League opener. Of course, the stakes aren't nearly as high in this tournament as they are in the Euros or World Cup - not even close. So perhaps it's not surprising that yesterday's opening day slate of Nations League contests was fairly high-scoring. I expect more of the same here. France comes in riding a seven-match winning streak across all competitions. You would have to go back 10 matches to find its last defeat. Five of its last six contests have found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. Likewise, Denmark has seen five of its last seven matches go 'over' 2.5 goals. Denmark is certainly no pushover - it sits 11th in the FIFA rankings and enters this contest having scored first in eight of its last 10 trips to the pitch. With key defender Simon Kjaer expected to miss this contest, the Danes may be a little think at the back and France is certainly capable of exposing any sort of weakness in that area of the field with Mbappe and Benzema capable of striking at any given moment. France can be vulnerable at the back-end as well, noting that just going back to last September you'll find the likes of Ivory Coast and Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed to find the back of the net against Les Bleus. We'll count on some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |