Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-02-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185.5 | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout (TNT) on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 185.5
Bottom Line: I'm expecting a very strong defensive effort from the Grizzlies tonight after such a poor showing in the 4th quarter Sunday. Memphis is 9-1 UNDER when checking into a game following an upset loss this season. Nothing gets the blood boiling like blowing a big lead. Sunday's loss assures us the Grizzlies will enter this contest with even more focus and desperation. Rather than ask the Grizz to cover the spread, we'll take the under as their defensive intensity keeps this one low scoring. |
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05-02-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic +3.5 | Top | 97-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (NBA TV) on Magic +3.5
Bottom Line: The Magic are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less and 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Pacers are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Magic. |
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05-02-12 | Utah Jazz +11.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 83-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Major (TNT) on Jazz +11.5
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 33-10 ATS record since 1996. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. |
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05-01-12 | Denver Nuggets +6 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Playoffs Bailout on Nuggets +6
Bottom Line: I'll gladly take the points with the Nuggets in this bounce back spot as they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The always overvalued Lakers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. |
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05-01-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 200 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 1st Round Total of the Year on Nuggets/Lakers OVER 200
Bottom Line: The Lakers won't be able to hold the NBA highest scoring team in check again in Game 2. The Nuggets have come out and said that they'll force a fast-paced game, and that bodes very well for us here. Denver averages 104.6 ppg on the road and LA averages 98.9 ppg at home. These averages are significant because Denver is 24-5 OVER when both it and its opponent score 98 or more points in a game this season and LA is 39-1 OVER when both it and its foe score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. We've seen an average of 211.2 total points scored in these games. Pound the over. |
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05-01-12 | Boston Celtics +5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 87-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Celtics +5
Bottom Line: Odds makers have overcompensated for Rondo's suspension with this line, and we'll take full advantage. Bradley and Pierce really struggled in Game 1, and I expect much better performances from both players tonight. Plus, Boston is the top defensive team in the league, holding its foes to just 41.9% from the field and 30.8% from beyond the arc. The Celtics are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. |
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04-30-12 | Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers -8.5 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers -8.5
Bottom Line: The books are begging for action on Orlando here after the Magic stole Game 1, but we won't give in. The Pacers are the superior team, especially with Dwight Howard out, and I expect them to even the series with an impressive double-digit win. The Pacers are on an 80-50 ATS run when out to avenge a loss in which they were held below the 85-point mark. They are also on a 23-11 ATS streak in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. Lay the points. |
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04-30-12 | New York Knicks +10 v. Miami Heat | 94-104 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Major on Knicks +10
Bottom Line: I expect an inspired effort from the Knicks tonight after getting completely embarrassed in Game 1. The Knicks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points in their last game. Take the points. |
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04-29-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 | 99-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Playoffs Bailout on Grizzlies -5.5
Bottom Line: Home court cannot be overlooked in this series as the home team has won the last 4 by at least 7 points. Memphis has won its last 11 games at home by an average of 7.5 points. It also went 5-1 at home in the 2011 playoffs with a nearly double-digit average margin of victory. |
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04-29-12 | Denver Nuggets +5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 88-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* (ABC) on Nuggets +5
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are showing some nice value catching this many points. After all, they are 13-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. The Nuggets are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog and 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Lakers, including 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. |
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04-28-12 | Dallas Mavericks +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 98-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Bailout on Mavs +7.5
Bottom Line: The Mavs went 17-4 ATS in the playoffs last season, and they remain a strong playoff wager at these odds. OKC is explosive offensively, but the Mavs are an impressive 10-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Plus, the dog is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this matchup. |
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04-28-12 | Orlando Magic +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Magic +9.5
Bottom Line: Odds makers are factoring Dwight Howard's absence too heavily into this line and we'll look to take advantage. The Magic remain a dangerous team without the big fella because they can flat out drain it from deep. The Magic are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus Indiana. The Pacers are on a 1-9-1 ATS slide when laying points in the postseason. |
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04-28-12 | New York Knicks v. Miami Heat -8.5 | 67-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Major on Heat -8.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are on a mission after losing in last year's Finals, and I expect them to waste no time sending a message to the Knicks. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. |
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04-26-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Atlanta Hawks -4.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks -4.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks have an opportunity to lock up home-court in the first round, and I expect them to take care of business versus a Dallas squad that will sit Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. The Hawks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. We'll lay the points. |
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04-25-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New York Knicks UNDER 191.5 | Top | 93-99 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Clippers/Knicks UNDER 191.5
Bottom Line: The Clippers combined with the Hawks to put 211 points on the board last night. The Knicks combined with the Hawks to put 225 points on the board in their last game. Also, we've seen 224, 239 and 220 total points scored in the last 3 meetings in this series. Given the line, the books are clearly begging for the public to take the over. We won't bite. I fully expect this game to have playoff intensity on the defensive end. The Clippers are 14-5 under when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. We've seen just 184.4 total points scored in these games. Plus, NY is 9-0 under after a win by 6 points or less this season. We've seen just 175.9 total points scored in these games. Pound the under. |
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04-24-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz UNDER 203 | Top | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Suns/Jazz UNDER 203
Bottom Line: Both teams are fresh and with all that's at stake I expect the defensive intensity to be high. The result should be an easy under. Plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (UTAH) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more, are 83-42 since 1996. This system is 10-1 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season. Also, plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 72-34 since 1996. This system is 28-6 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season. Lastly, the Suns are 7-0 Under this season in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game. Pound the Under. |
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04-23-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. New Jersey Nets +9.5 | 105-87 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Nets +9.5
Bottom Line: With the knowledge that the 76ers can clinch a playoff berth with a win, odds makers have overvalued them here in an attempt to trap the public. The 76ers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Nets are coming off an 11-point loss at Milwaukee but are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. This will be the Nets final home game in the Garden State after 35 years, and I expect the players to respect the New Jersey fans by leaving it all on the floor. Take the points. |
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04-22-12 | Houston Rockets +6 v. Miami Heat | 88-97 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Rockets +6
Bottom Line: The Heat's chances of landing the top seed in the East took a big hit with yesterday's loss to the Wizards, and Dwayne Wayne's injury was a reminder of how important it is to go into the playoffs healthy. The Heat really have no incentive to go after a win here. The Rockets, meanwhile, are in do-or-die mode as they trail Utah by a game for the last playoff spot in the West. Playing against home favorites (MIAMI) playing the second game of a back-to-back in April has produced a 180-116 ATS result since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.6 points but have only won by an average of 3.6. Also, road underdogs (HOUSTON) - extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days - against an opponent that is extremely tired - playing 9 or more games in 14 days - are 54-20 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 6.8 points on average but have only lost by an average of 3.4. This situation is 16-6 ATS this season. Take the points. |
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04-21-12 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets -12.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rockets -12.5
Bottom Line: This is a must-win game for Houston, which is 1-game back for the final playoff spot in the West, and it catches the injury-depleted Warriors at a good time. They spent a lot of injury in last night's loss to the Mavs and have now dropped 7 in a row by an average of 15.3 points. Plus, Houston is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus Golden State, winning those contests by an average of 16.7 points. Lay the points. |
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04-20-12 | Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks -12 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Mavs -12
Bottom Line: With an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with a win, look for the Mavs to roll in their regular-season home finale. Dallas has won 9 of its last 10 at home against Golden State with those 9 wins coming by a whopping 16.8 points per game. The injury bug has really plagued the Warriors down the stretch, and I don't believe they have enough fire power to keep the motivated Mavs from blowing them out. |
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04-19-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Bailout on Suns -2
Bottom Line: The Suns have won 9 straight at home versus the Clippers with each of those wins coming by at least 3 points. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games as a favorite. Phoenix has won 2 of 3 versus the Clippers this season and was an underdog in each of those games. The fact that LAC is suddenly a dog while its playing its best ball of the season screams trap. We'll take the Suns. |
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04-19-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat -5 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -5
Bottom Line: After winning the season's first meeting in Miami, the Heat have dropped a pair of close contests in Chicago. This is a game the Heat want badly. A win here keeps them alive for the #1 seed in the East, and more importantly, gives them confidence against a Chicago club they'll likely see in the playoffs. The Heat have won 8 of their last 9 at home versus Chicago with those 8 wins coming by an average of 7.6 points. Also, playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 61-31 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.2 points and have won by an average of 9.7. Lay the points. |
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04-18-12 | Utah Jazz v. Portland Trailblazers +4 | Top | 112-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA BAILOUT on Trail Blazers +4
Bottom Line: The Jazz are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 15-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Utah has won the season's first 2 meetings by 4 and 5 points, but Portland is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games when out to avenge 2 consecutive straight up losses to an opponent. The Blazers have won by an average of 7.0 points in this situation. We'll take the points as Portland shows up for the fans in its last home game of the season. |
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04-17-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Philadelphia 76ers -3 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -3
Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs (INDIANA) coming off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced a 91-51 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have lost by an average of 8.9 points. The Pacers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on 0 days' rest. This is Indiana's 4th game in 5 days. The 76ers played yesterday as well but had 2 days off prior to that game. Philly will be the fresher team tonight, and I expect it to rise to the occasion as it tries to boost its playoff position. |
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04-16-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 77-92 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Bailout on Thunder -2.5
Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to lay this small number on the Thunder as they are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. OKC will be very hungry tonight following last week's 2-point home loss to the Clippers. The Thunder are 13-2 ATS in road games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take the Thunder. |
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04-16-12 | Miami Heat v. New Jersey Nets +8 | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets +8
Bottom Line: This is Miami's second game in as many days and 4th in 5 days, and I don't think it will have the legs to cover this number tonight. The Nets haven't forgotten about the 30-point beating they were handed in South Beach last month, and I fully expect them to leave it all on the floor in hopes of avenging that defeat. Miami's starters logged over 164 minutes Sunday, which is significant because it is on a 2-6 ATS slide when their starting 5 combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Nets. |
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04-15-12 | Chicago Bulls v. Detroit Pistons +9.5 | Top | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pistons +9.5
Bottom Line: The Pistons have either won or lost to the Bulls by fewer than today's posted number in 27 of the last 32 meetings in Detroit. The home teams have covered the number in 6 of the last 7 matchups. Also, the Pistons are a very profitable 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. Take Detroit. |
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04-14-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 | Top | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +11.5
Bottom Line: Even with Love out, the T-Wolves aren't getting the respect they deserve at home. They are 4-9 in their last 13 home games in the series but none of those 13 losses have come by more than 11 points. I fully expect this 13-0 trend to continue. We'll take the points. |
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04-13-12 | Denver Nuggets +4.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 97-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Bailout on Nuggets +4.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers have been overvalued at home and that remains the case here. They are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Nuggets, who haven't lost to the Lakers by more than 4 points in the last 4 meetings, are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games in this series. |
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04-13-12 | Milwaukee Bucks -5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks -5
Bottom Line: Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) that average 99.0 points per game or more on the season, provided they have allowed 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, are 46-19 ATS (70.8%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3. This system is a killer 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Basically, this system suggests that Milwaukee will tighten the screws defensively following consecutive poor efforts and is explosive enough offensively to cover the number. |
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04-12-12 | Miami Heat +2 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Heat +2
Bottom Line: Off a loss to Boston, in which they allowed the Celtics to shoot 60.6%, and having tasted defeat the last time they faced the Bulls, I expect an inspired effort from LeBron James and company this evening. The Heat lost in Chicago by 4 points on Mar. 14 but had won 5 straight over the Bulls by an average of 7.2 points prior to that. This game is basically a must-win for the Heat if they want any realistic chance to claim the Eastern Conference's top seed. More importantly, the Heat need this game to prove to themselves what they have thought all along, that they're the team to beat in the East. The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Also, the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. We'll pound the Heat. |
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04-11-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Year on Grizzlies -5.5
Bottom Line: I love the Grizzlies at home tonight as they look to pay Phoenix back for a pair of losses in the desert earlier this season. The last time Phoenix visited Memphis, it was handed a 10-point defeat, and I expect this one to be even worse. The Suns have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in this series with those 3 losses coming by an average of 11.3 points. Phoenix is 18-8 since mid-Feb. but has struggled against the elite, enduring losses to Oklahoma City, Miami and San Antonio during this stretch. Memphis, meanwhile, has won 8 of its last 10 with key wins against the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. The Memphis defense has been ridiculous, holding its last 10 foes to just 90.8 points on average. The Phoenix defense hasn't been nearly as good, giving up 98.4 points to its last 10 opponents. The Suns have given up an average of 101.0 points to their last 5 opponents while the Grizzlies have allowed just 89.0 to their last 5. Memphis' defense will spark a blowout tonight. |
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04-10-12 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -7.5
Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a double-digit win over a division rival and are up against a foe that checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more has produced a perfect 9-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that enter off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival and are up against a foe that enters off a home win has produced a perfect 4-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, if that opponent checks in off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, has produced an unbeaten 4-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Lastly, playing against road teams in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) has produced a perfect 3-0 ATS mark this season. We'll take the Heat behind this 20-0 ATS angle. |
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04-09-12 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trailblazers -3 | Top | 94-89 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Blazers -3
Bottom Line: The Blazers have the advantage playing this one at home with a day of rest on their side. Houston just played Sunday and has lost 5 of its last 7 ATS when playing without a day of rest. The have also been a dead fade in this point-spread range as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games as a dog of 4.5 or fewer points. Houston is 4-13 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season and 2-11 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Pound Portland. |
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04-09-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz | 84-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Major on Jazz pk
Bottom Line: There's a very good chance Duncan, Ginobli and Parker won't play (or will play few minutes) tonight. This gives the edge to Utah, which is an impressive 20-8 at home this season. The Jazz are on a 4-0 ATS run at home games against teams carrying winning road records. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest. |
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04-08-12 | Chicago Bulls v. New York Knicks UNDER 185 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Week on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 185
Bottom Line: The Knicks are 9-0 Under this season when checking in off a road win. We have only seen an average of 179.5 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls' last 4 road games, 8-3 in the Knicks' last 11 overall and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two foes in New York. New York's defense has improved drastically since the last time it faced Chicago. Expect a low-scoring defensive battle to find its way under the number here. |
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04-07-12 | Sacramento Kings +8 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 94-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Bailout on Kings +8
Bottom Line: The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games when matched up against a team with a winning mark at home. The Kings have lost the season's first 2 meetings but are 37-24 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss over the last 2 seasons. They have only lost by an average of 3.3 points in this situation. Take the points. |
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04-07-12 | Boston Celtics +2 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 86-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Year on Celtics +2
Bottom Line: Last night's satisfying win over the Thunder has left the Pacers ripe for a beating. The Celtics, who have lost 2 in a row since winning 5 straight, will gladly deliver that beating. This is a revenge game for Indiana, which lost the season's most recent meeting by 7 points in Boston, but I don't believe it will have the legs to get the job done. Playing against home favorites (INDIANA) out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, provided that "play against" side checks in having played 9 or more games in 14 days, has produced a 35-13 (73%) ATS mark since 1996. Also, the Pacers are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games when playing with no rest. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or fewer. Boston wins this game outright. |
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04-06-12 | Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 97-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Miami, which is coming off a big revenge win over the Thunder. Memphis lost its last game at Dallas but that was its third in as many days. Having had a day of rest, the Grizzlies will be much fresher here. They won at OKC Monday and have been at their best this time of year under coach Hollins. In fact, the Grizz are 18-4 ATS all-time in the second half of the season under Hollins when matched up against a team that has won more than 70% of its games. It has only lost to these foes by an average of 2.1 points. I like Memphis to give the Heat all they want and more tonight. |
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04-05-12 | Boston Celtics v. Chicago Bulls -7 | Top | 86-93 | Push | 0 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls -7
Bottom Line: The Bulls will be out for blood at home tonight following back-to-back SU and ATS losses. Chicago is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. It has won by an average of 13.4 points in this situation. Plus, the Celtics are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 0 days rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Chicago. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing when playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Bulls. |
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04-04-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat -2.5 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *MONSTER MATCHUP* on Heat -2.5
Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Heat, who were embarrassed in Oklahoma City March 25. Expect a different outcome in Miami, where the Heat are 22-2 on the season. They have won their last 16 home games, and those wins have come by an average of 10.7 points. Lay the points. |
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04-04-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards +6 | Top | 109-96 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards +6
Bottom Line: The Wizards have played the Pacers to 2 and 4-point games this season, and I like them to take Indy right down to the wire again. The Pacers are only 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games when playing on 0 days' rest and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Off last night's big come-from-behind win over New York, and with the Thunder and Celtics up next, expect Indiana to get caught looking ahead here. |
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04-03-12 | Golden State Warriors +7.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Warriors +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for the Grizzlies following last night's big win over the Thunder. The Grizzlies are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take the points. |
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04-02-12 | Utah Jazz +2 v. Portland Trailblazers | Top | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jazz +2
Bottom Line: The Blazers defeated Minnesota by 13 Sunday but are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. |
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04-02-12 | Kansas v. Kentucky -6 | Top | 59-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NCAA Championship *PUNISHER* on Kentucky -6
Bottom Line: Kentucky is playing at a different level than Kansas. While the Jayhawks have won 3 of their NCAA tourney games by 3 points or less, the Wildcats have won each of theirs by at least 8 points. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Kentucky defeated Kansas by 10 points during the regular season and did so despite missing 13 free throws and turning the ball over 19 times. Kentucky flexes its muscles here. |
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04-01-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic -5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Magic -5
Bottom Line: The last time Orlando lost consecutive games it bounced back strong with a double digit win and cover over Phoenix. I expect a similar turn of events this evening. The Nuggets have lost 3 of 5 on their current road trip with their losses coming by an average of 15.0 points. They have also dropped 13 of their last 14 in Orlando with those losses coming by an average of 11.2 points. The fact Denver enters off a win is also significant because it hasn't won consecutive contests since March 4-5. The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Nuggets are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. Pound the Magic. |
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03-31-12 | Ohio State -2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 62-64 | Loss | -102 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Ohio State -2.5
Bottom Line: Kansas is in the Final Four by the skin of its teeth, getting scares from Purdue and NC State and benefiting from an injury to UNC's Kendall Marshall. Ohio State, meanwhile, has been a lot more dominant, winning each of its NCAA Tourney games by at least 7 points. The only thing keeping this line from being higher is Kansas' 11-point win over the Buckeyes earlier this season. But it can't go unmentioned that Jared Sullinger didn't play in that contest. With the big fella down low to put pressure on Thomas Robinson on both ends of the court and Aaron Craft in Tyshawn Taylor's jersey, I fully expect the Buckeyes to win and cover. Ohio State is on a dominant 18-7 ATS run when playing away from Columbus when out to avenge a same-season defeat to an opponent. Also, the Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Bet the Buckeyes. |
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03-31-12 | Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +2.5
Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to take the Grizzlies in this back-to-back spot considering they are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on 0 days rest. Also, the Bucks are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Plus, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Memphis won both of last season's meeting, and I expect it to continue its recent dominance of Milwaukee here. |
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03-30-12 | New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -3.5 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Hawks -3.5
Bottom Line: New York's 108-86 win over Orlando Wednesday and it's 99-82 home win over Atlanta last month sets up a very strong situation tonight. Playing on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, has produced a 37-13 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.5 points. The Knicks are just 2-7 in their last 9 road games. I like the Hawks big in this revenge spot. |
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03-29-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers -105 | Top | 102-93 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* (TNT) on Lakers pk
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 20-4 at home this season where they carry an 8.4-point average margin of victory. They are also on an 11-1 run at home versus the Sonic/Thunder (7 of those wins against the Thunder) with those 11 victories coming by an average of 10.6 points. The Thunder have been far from invincible on the road of late with 7-point losses at Atlanta and Utah this month. The Lakers crushed the Heat by 10 points at home earlier this month and they'll be looking to make a statement against the Thunder as well. Pound the Lakers. |
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03-28-12 | Indiana Pacers v. New Jersey Nets +5.5 | Top | 84-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets +5.5
Bottom Line: Expect the Nets to cover this number at home tonight as they leave it all on the floor to avoid being swept by Indiana. The Nets have lost the season's first 3 matchups but the last 2 losses have come by just 7 and 5 points. Fat and happy off a big win over Miami, I don't expect the Pacers to give the Nets the respect they deserve tonight. The Pacers are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, Indiana is only 2-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Vogel. It has lost by an average of 5.8 points in this situation. Bet the Nets. |
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03-27-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trailblazers +5 | 109-95 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA Bailout on Trailblazers +5
Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game for the Thunder, who are coming off a big win over Miami and have the Lakers and Bulls up next. With those 2 big games ahead, the Thunder won't give Portland the respect it deserves here. The Blazers have either won or lost by fewer than 5 points in 9 of their last 10 home games in this series. The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. Bet the Blazers. |
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03-27-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks -2 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks -2
Bottom Line: The Bucks have lost consecutive games by 21 and 9 points and have a pair of 5-point losses to Atlanta this season and yet they are favored? Odds makers clearly want the public on the Hawks, who have won 4 in row, but we won't fall for the trap. I believe Milwaukee will play with a greater sense of urgency tonight as it is currently on the outside of the playoff picture. Plus, I expect Atlanta to be more focused on tomorrow's showdown with the Bulls. Playing against underdogs (ATLANTA) off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced an 83-48-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons. The SU record of this system is 105-30 and the teams fitting into it have lost by an average of 8.9 points. Pound Milwaukee. |
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03-26-12 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +7 | Top | 102-95 | Push | 0 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Bobcats +7
Bottom Line: This aging Boston squad has really struggled when playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back, especially on the road. In fact, the C's are only 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 2nd game in as many days away from home. They haven't just lost these games, they've lost them by an average of 12.6 points. It is also worth mentioning that the Celtics are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on no rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Additionally, Bean Town is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet Charlotte. |
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03-25-12 | Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +7
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies have lost 3 in a row, but that's not about to keep me off them. They are a sizzling 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after 3 or more consecutive losses and have only lost in this situation by an average of 0.1 points. The Lakers have won the season's first 2 meetings but the Grizzlies are 49-31 ATS in their last 80 games when playing with double revenge. They have only lost these games by an average of 1.3 points. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. We'll fade LA. |
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03-25-12 | Miami Heat +2 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 87-103 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
4* Major *MONSTER MATCHUP* on Heat +2
Bottom Line: The Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Thunder are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Plus, the Heat are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Wade and James have played in more big games than Westbrook and Durant, and I expect their big game experience to be the difference here. |
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03-25-12 | Kansas -1.5 v. North Carolina | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Major Elite 8 *BLOOD BATH* on Kansas -1.5
Bottom Line: North Carolina is a poor 1-11 ATS when playing in road/neutral court games with one or no days of rest over the last 2 seasons. The Tar Heels are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. The Jayhawks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Without Marshall at full strength, I give the edge to Kansas, who will get better guard play from Tyshawn Taylor. |
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03-24-12 | Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Mavs +3.5
Bottom Line: The Mavs have won 4 straight over Houston with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. The last time the Mavs lost in Houston was Dec. 31, 2009 and they only lost that game by 3 points. The Mavs are an incredible 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll side with the reigning NBA champions in the small dog role here. |
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03-24-12 | Ohio State v. Syracuse +3 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Syracuse +3
Bottom Line: Top-seeded Syracuse isn't getting the respect it deserves here. Ohio State won more impressively in the Sweet 16 but that win came against a Cincy team seeded lower than the team Syracuse played (Wisconsin). Plus, the Orange won that game despite Wisconsin dropping in 14 three-pointers. It takes excellent 3-point shooting to beat Jim Boeheim's matchup zone, and I don't see an Ohio State team that only averages 6 made three-pointers per game hitting enough threes tonight. Ohio State is only 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games in the Big Dance when listed as a favorite of 6.5 points or fewer. Pound Cuse. |
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03-23-12 | NC State v. Kansas -8 | Top | 57-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Kansas -8
Bottom Line: The public has fallen in love with NC State, and odds makers are looking to take advantage here. We won't go down with the public ship. Kansas endured a close call against Purdue and failed to cover the spread, but recent history tells us it isn't wise to go against the Jayhawks in this spot. In fact, Kansas is an impressive 11-4 ATS this season following a game in which it didn't cover the number. It has won these games by an average of 12.1 points. Kansas had its Final Four hopes dashed last year by VCU, and it's on a mission. We'll lay the points as the Jayhawks bring NC State's Cinderella run to an end. |
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03-23-12 | New Jersey Nets +7.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 84-93 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major on Nets +7.5
Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Nets, who have lost each of the season's first 3 meetings in the series. The Nets were crushed by 36 in the season's first meeting but played the Hawks to 7 and 5-point games in the next 2. Having lost 4 in a row and coming off an embarrassing loss to Washington, New Jersey should be very hungry here. The Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. |
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03-23-12 | New York Knicks v. Toronto Raptors +5.5 | Top | 79-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Year on Raptors +5.5
Bottom Line: The books want the money coming in on NY, who enters riding a 5-game win streak and defeated the Raptors by 19 on March 20, but we won't oblige them. That embarrassing loss, and blowing a 12-point lead in their last game against the Bulls, will have them extremely motivated here. Toronto has lost 3 in a row but is 14-4 ATS this season after losing 3 of their last 4 games. The Raptors have actually won by an average of 0.4 points in these contests. Also, the Knicks are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. The Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Pound Toronto. |
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03-22-12 | Florida v. Marquette -2 | 68-58 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Major on Sweet 16 Bailout on Marquette -2
Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs (FLORIDA) in a game involving two good offensive teams (averaging 74-78 ppg), after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, has produced a 34-17 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. These teams have lost by an average of 8.7 points. The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, and we'll lay the deuce with them here. |
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03-22-12 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Cincinnati +7.5
Bottom Line: The Bearcats have won 9 of their last 11 and those 2 losses came by 6 points or less. The Buckeyes have won 6 of their last 7, but only 3 of those wins have come by more than 7 points. Cincy is an awesome 8-1 ATS when playing away from home versus non-conference foes since the beginning of last season. It has won these games by an average of 10.0 points (67.1 to 57.1). We'll grab the points as Cincy gives the Buckeyes all they want and more. |
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03-22-12 | Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards +6.5 | Top | 85-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards +6.5
Bottom Line: The Pacers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Pacers have lost their last 4 on the road and could get stung again here versus a Washington squad with home wins over the Thunder and Lakers. Take the points. |
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03-21-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. San Antonio Spurs -9.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Blowout Game of the Month on Spurs -9.5
Bottom Line: Having had 3 full days of rest and hungry to bounce back from a loss to Dallas and to avenge a pair of loss to Minnesota, look for the Spurs to roll tonight. The Spurs haven't lost consecutive games since January. They are 5-0 following their last 5 defeats, winning those games by an average of 16.6 points. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Also, the Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Pound the Spurs. |
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03-21-12 | Pittsburgh +1.5 v. Butler | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy CBI Tournament Game of the Year on Pittsburgh +1.5
Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Pittsburgh. It is the more talented team and it will show no mercy to a Butler squad that knocked it out of the Big Dance last year. Pitt is 11-3 ATS all-time under coach Dixon as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem. It has won these games by an average of 4.8 points. The Panthers are also 21-8 ATS under Dixon when checking in off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. Pitt has won by an average of 14.8 points in this spot. Pound Pitt. |
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03-20-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Indiana Pacers -3.5 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Pacers -3.5
Bottom Line: I'll grab the Pacers laying a small number in this bounce back spot considering the dominance the home team has displayed in this series. The home team has won each of the last 4 by at least 7 points with Indiana winning its 2 home games during this span by 27 and 13. |
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03-19-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -4 | Top | 112-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nuggets -4
Bottom Line: The Nuggets will be out for some serious revenge here after they were defeated by 10 and 18 points respectively by Dallas last month. Keep in mind that Denver's best player (in my opinion), Gallinari, didn't play in either of those games. With Gallinari back and playing well, Denver should be able to taste some sweet revenge here. Coach Karl is 105-81 ATS when out for revenge for a same season as the coach of Denver. He's also 41-17 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season with the Nuggets. Look for Denver to hand Dallas its 8th straight road loss tonight. |
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03-19-12 | Butler v. Pennsylvania +1.5 | 63-53 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
4* Major CBI Tournament SUREFIRE on Pennsylvania +1.5
Bottom Line: Penn has been nothing short of dominant at home where it has won 6 in a row and 8 of its last 9. Butler has struggled on the road where it has lost its last 2 and 4 of its last 6. The Bulldogs are just 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games when matched up against a team with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-19-12 | Middle Tennessee St +4.5 v. Tennessee | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major NIT SUREFIRE on Middle Tennessee State +4.5
The Key: The Blue Raiders are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. They are also 7-0 ATS when matched up against a team with a winning record this season. |
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03-18-12 | St. Louis +7.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy ROUND of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis +7.5
Bottom Line: St. Louis has been at its best against the stiffest competition this season. In fact, it is 6-0 ATS versus very good teams (outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game) this season, and it has defeated these teams by an average of 9.3 points. The Billikens are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Defense has been the key to St. Louis' success, and I believe it is far too good defensively not to cover this number. The Billikens rank 8th in the nation in scoring defense, only allowing 57.4 points per game. Take the points. |
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03-18-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 | Top | 103-87 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Cavaliers +2.5
Bottom Line: Playing against all teams when the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games of allowing opponents to shoot 47% or better - has produced a 32-9 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 4.0 points. In addition, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Cavs. |
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03-17-12 | Colorado v. Baylor -7.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
4* Major on Baylor -7.5
Bottom Line: I believe Baylor is being undervalued here because of the close game it played with South Dakota State. That game showed the Bears, who are one of the most talented teams in the country, that they'll need to step up their game to make a Final Four run. I fully expect them to do that here. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Pacific-12 and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Under coach Drew, Baylor is 62-47 ATS in road/neutral floor games when playing against a team with a winning record. We'll lay the points. |
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03-17-12 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Indiana -6 | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Big Dance *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Indiana -6
Bottom Line: VCU will play hard, as it always does, but I'm confident this more talented Indiana squad will be too much in the end. In fact, the Indiana squad has been too much for all 14 of its non-conference foes this season, including Kentucky. Odds makers set spreads for 8 of those games and the Hoosiers covered the number in all 8 while winning by an average of 23.8 points. We'll lay the number. |
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03-17-12 | New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers -4.5 | 102-88 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Pacers -4.5
Bottom Line: Expect the Pacers, who lost by 5 in New York last night, to return the favor here. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. They are also 13-5 at home where they have won by an average of 7.7 points. |
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03-16-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves +8 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +8
Bottom Line: The T-Wolves will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to snap a 17-game losing streak in the series. They have played the Lakers to 5 and 3-point games in 2 of the season's 3 meetings. Plus, the Lakers could be dealing with some chemistry issues after moving Derek Fisher, Luke Walton and Jason Kapono. The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Lakers 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. |
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03-16-12 | Virginia Cavaliers +4 v. Florida | Top | 45-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament *PUNISHER* (TNT) on Virginia +4
Bottom Line: Virginia should not be catching this many points. The Cavs have lost 3 of their last 4 but all 3 of those losses came by 3 points to NCAA tourney teams (UNC, FSU, NC St). Florida has lost 4 of 5 with 3 of those losses coming by double figures. When getting ample time to prepare, Virginia has been unstoppable. In fact, it is 6-0 ATS under coach Bennett when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest. It has won by an average of 6.6 points in these games. Also, the Cavaliers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. |
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03-16-12 | Texas v. Cincinnati -2 | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Major Early Annihilator (CBS) on Cincinnati -2
Bottom Line: I really feel this is a mismatch with a proven Cincy squad up against an inexperienced Texas team. Texas has been a poor investment all season at just 10-18 ATS in lined games. The Longhorns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Big East and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. The Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. |
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03-15-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -7 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Clippers -7
Bottom Line: The Suns have been playing well but have only played one road games since Feb. 19. They have lost each of their last four road contests by an average of 11.5 points. The Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet the Clippers. |
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03-15-12 | Colorado v. UNLV -5.5 | 68-64 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Major Bailout on UNLV -5.5
Bottom Line: After losing to Northern Iowa and Illinois in the first round of the NCAA tournament the past two seasons, this experienced UNLV squad (returns 4 starters) will be lacking no motivation when it hits the court tonight. The Buffaloes won the Pac-12 tourney, but that feat doesn't exactly impress this season with the league being down so much. UNLV was dominant in non-conference play with impressive wins over North Carolina (by 10) and Cal (by 17). The Buffs, meanwhile, lost to Maryland, struggled to beat Georgia and lost to Colorado State. Expect UNLV's NCAA tourney disappointments the past two seasons to drive them to a comfortable win tonight. |
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03-15-12 | South Dakota St +8 v. Baylor | Top | 60-68 | Push | 0 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Round of 64 Game of the Year on South Dakota State +8
Bottom Line: I won't hesitate to back South Dakota State at this price with the way it can light it up from three-point range. SD State is 8-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% - over the last 2 seasons, defeating these foes by an average score of 79.2 to 66.5. The Jackrabbits are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Baylor is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game - after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average score of 79.8 to 69. The Bears are also just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. |
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03-15-12 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Wichita State -6 | 62-59 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Major on Wichita State -6
Bottom Line: Lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place. In other words, don't expect VCU to make another improbable run in the tourney. The Rams aren't as good as they were a season ago, and they're up against a Wichita State squad that is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pickem over the last 3 seasons. The Shockers have won these games by a whopping 13.9 points on average. Take Wichita State. |
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03-14-12 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls -2.5 | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
4* Major Monster Matchup (ESPN) on Bulls -2.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls will be lacking no motivation as they look to end a 5-game skid versus Miami. Plus, they get this game at home where they are 17-3, and they get a fatigued Miami squad that just played an overtime game last night. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Also, the Bulls are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. |
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03-14-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New Orleans Hornets +5 | Top | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Week on Hornets +5
Bottom Line: The Hornets catch the Lakers at the right time as LA used a ton of energy in last night's double-OT win. The Lakers have struggled on the road all season. They are even on a 0-5 ATS slide in road games when matched up against teams with losing marks at home. The Hornets have covered the number in 10 of their last 13 when catching points. Pound New Orleans. |
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03-14-12 | Buffalo v. American +3 | 78-61 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Play of the Day on American +3
Bottom Line: The Buffalo Bulls are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite period. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. |
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03-13-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets -5 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nuggets -5
Bottom Line: The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Denver has won 4 straight at home against Atlanta with those wins coming by 9.5 points on average. Lay the number. |
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03-13-12 | Mississippi Valley State v. Western Kentucky -3.5 | 58-59 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Major NCAAB Play-in Game *BLOOD BATH* on Western Kentucky -3.5
Bottom Line: The WKU Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days. The Delta Devils, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 0-6 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons. |
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03-12-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves +4 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +4
Bottom Line: The Timberwolves are still a quality team without Rubio. They are more talented than Phoenix top-to-bottom and will prove it here tonight. The Suns defeated the Wolves by 9 points earlier this month, but Minnesota shot just 39.5% from the field in that game. The poor shooting can be attributed to tired legs as that was Minnesota 3rd game in as many days. It is fresher heading into this one and will shoot the ball a lot better. The Wolves are an impressive 17-7 ATS when catching points this season. It is winning by an average score of 99.2 to 98.6 in these games. Look for the Wolves to notch an outright win. |
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03-11-12 | Atlanta Hawks +1 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks +1
Bottom Line: I like this experienced Atlanta squad to bounce back from consecutive defeats against the young Kings tonight. Sacramento is coming off a big double-digit win over the reigning NBA champs but is only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. Atlanta has won 7 in a row against the Kings with those wins coming by an average of 8.6 points. Also, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Bet Atlanta in this bounce back spot against a team it has had a great deal of success against. |
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03-11-12 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +2 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Big Ten Championship *PUNISHER* on Michigan State +2
Bottom Line: Michigan State has been a team on a mission since losing its final two regular season games and sharing the Big Ten title with Ohio State and Michigan. It wants this game to prove it is the best team in the Big Ten and to give itself an opportunity to land a No. 1 seed. A 72-70 loss at home to Ohio State in the season finale will be the motivating force behind a Michigan State victory today. Under coach Izzo, the Spartans are 27-12 ATS when out to avenge a same-season defeat to a foe. They are winning by an average of 7.5 points in these games. |
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03-10-12 | Indiana Pacers +9.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 91-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +9.5
Bottom Line: We may not get the Pacers in a better spot all season. They have had 3 days to get fresh following consecutive defeats, and we can expect maximum effort after losing the season's first two meetings with Miami badly. The Pacers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games when taking the floor with 3 days' rest or more. The Pacers desperately want to show that they can play with anyone in the East. I think they take a step toward proving that by taking the Heat down to the wire. |
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03-10-12 | NC State +9 v. North Carolina | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Conference Tourney *PUNISHER* on NC State +9
Bottom Line: NC State likely still needs a win (or at least a strong showing) to get off the bubble, and that's all the motivation it will need here. The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games as an underdog. It also bodes well for us that John Henson has a wrist injury and may not be able to go. Even if he's on the floor, he likely won't be as effective. |
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03-09-12 | Los Angeles Clippers +5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
4* Major on Clippers +5
Bottom Line: The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. They lost to the Spurs by just 3 points in OT on Feb. 18, and I like them to keep this one within the number in this revenge spot. |
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03-09-12 | Louisville -3 v. Notre Dame | Top | 64-50 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Big East Tourney *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Louisville -3
Bottom Line: I won't hesitate to grab the Cards laying such a small number as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or fewer. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Notre Dame won the regular season meeting by 2 points, but I expect Louisville to have its revenge here. |
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03-09-12 | Los Angeles Lakers -113 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on Lakers -113
Bottom Line: After blowing a 12-point lead against Detroit Tuesday and a 21-point lead against Washington Wednesday, the Lakers will be out for blood against a team they have defeated 17 straight times. Playing on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, has produced a 12-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Also, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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03-09-12 | New Jersey Nets v. Charlotte Bobcats +3 | 83-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Major on Bobcats +3
Bottom Line: The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 4-21-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. |
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03-08-12 | Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns +3.5 | Top | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Suns +3.5
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Suns to end their 8-game losing streak to the Mavs tonight. Dallas has dropped its last 4 on the road while Phoenix has won 5 of its last 6 at home and that lone home defeat only came by 2 points. The Mavs are not the same team that won the title last season and yet they are continuing to get that type of respect from odds makers. The Mavericks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite period. The Suns have covered the number in 5 of their last 6 at home and 7 of their last 10 as an underdog of fewer than 5 points. |
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03-08-12 | Stanford v. California -185 | Top | 71-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
5* Wiseguy Conference Tournament Game of the year on California -185
Bottom Line: I really like Cal against the spread if you don't want to pay this much juice, but I'm taking the Golden Bears on the money line to eliminate any fluke back door cover from Stanford in the closing seconds (i.e. slop 3-pointer at the buzzer). After losing to Stanford in their last game (and losing a share of the Pac-12 title alone with it), the Bears will be out for blood here. Cal has been a solid investment in bounce back spots at 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a, ATS loss. The Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite and the favored side is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Pound the Bears. |
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03-07-12 | Houston v. UTEP -3.5 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Major on UTEP -3.5
Bottom Line: Playing favorites (UTEP) that have failed to cover the number in 3 or more consecutive games, provided they are matched up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, has produced a 51-24 ATS record the last 5 seasons. |