07-19-20 |
Valencia v. Sevilla -0.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W18-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their last fourteen matches after settling for a nil-nil draw on the road at Real Sociedad on Thursday. Valencia (W14-D11-L12) has won two of their last three matches with their 1-0 victory over Espanyol on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla’s strong play over the second half of the season has been validated by the deeper metrics as they have generated 1.61 expected goals (xG) over their last fourteen matches with just 1.13 expected goals allowed (xGA) over that span for a strong +0.48 expected goal differential (xGD). They had won their previous four matches before settling for the draw with a Real Sociedad still fighting to ensure they qualify for next fall’s Europa League. Los Nervionenses still have things to play for this season. While being cemented in at least 4th place in the La Liga table ensures they qualify for next year’s Champions League, passing Atletico Madrid for 3rd place not only would be a feather in their cap but also affords them to bypass the initial qualifying match hurdle that 4th place teams must take. Sevilla needs a win with a loss in Atletico Madrid’s match with Real Sociedad (which is a possibility) to seize 3rd place. Los Nervionenses also have the second leg of their Round of 16 Europa League showdown with Roma coming up next month so manager Julen Lopetegui will want to keep his group in form. Sevilla have won five of their ten league matches in the return while only surrendering five goals over that span. While the Andalusians were held scoreless on Thursday, they had scored in 27 of their previous 28 La Liga matches. They have also registered a clean sheet in ten of their last twelve league games. They return home to Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches while winning their last two contests. They have allowed just 14 goals in their 18 home games in league play with these opponents generating a meager 0.89 xG. Sevilla also tends to feast on the lesser teams in La Liga when playing at home: they are W9-D5-L1 in their last fifteen home games against teams below them on the table while scoring 24 goals and conceding just 12 times. Valencia has won two of their last three matches since manager Albert Celades was sacked after losing control of the locker room since the return to play. Voro returned as a caretaker for this team for the third time in his managerial career to offer some renewed stability (despite him being the team’s third manager this season — but this has been an organization rife with drama with players bickering with each other and the owner’s daughter taking to social media to chastise their fans. Defections have not helped matters for this team that competed in the Champions League earlier in the season. Top center back Ezequiel Garay left the team with an expiring contract this summer and forward Rodrigo is out the season with an injury. Knocks also have Voro resorting to a third-stringer at left-back in his starting XI today. Valencia defeated Espanyol on Thursday despite losing the expected goals battle by a 1.53 to 1.20 mark to the already relegated last-place team in the league. Los Che has now lost the xG duel in eight of their last ten matches since the return which suggests they have been fortunate to of W3-D2-L5 over that span. They go back on the road where they have lost eleven times this season while losing eight of their last ten matches while going winless over the span. Valencia has allowed their opponents to generate 17.72 xG in those last ten road games while producing just 4.96 xG in those matches. For the season, Los Che averages 0.95 xG along with a 1.90 xGA on the road in La Liga with that -0.95 xGD mark being bottom-five in the league. Valencia has been shutout in four of their last five games on the road — and they have scored just five times in their last seven matches overall.
FINAL TAKE: Sevilla did rest their key starters in the first half at Real Sociedad on Thursday which helps explain why they did not score. Those rested starters should be on the pitch for this final league match. Valencia is still technically alive to qualify for the Europa League but they need a victory and then plenty of help to pull off that feat. Frankly avoiding rebellion and complete implosion was the immediate goal for Voro when he took over. Getting a result on the road against a quality and professional team like Sevilla is quite another. 25* La Liga Match of the Year with Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-20 |
Chelsea v. Manchester United |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-126 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Manchester United (200406) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200405) in the Semifinals of the FA Cup. The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Manchester United earned their right to play in the FA Cup Semifinals the day before when they defeated Norwich City on the road by a 2-1 score. Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 1-0 win at Leicester City. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is undefeated in their last nineteen matches across all competitions after they defeated Crystal Palace on the road by a 2-0 score on Thursday. The Red Devils have won six of their eight matches since the restart while scoring 21 goals and conceding just six times. Manchester United has been a scoring machine since the return to play as they have found the back of the net 21 times in their eight matches across all competitions. With Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba healthy again and joining the winter transfer signing of Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils are suddenly loaded with offensive talent. The Red Devils have also registered clean sheets in thirteen of their last nineteen contests. Chelsea has won six of their eight matches since the return but they have just a +3 net goal differential in those contests due to a sloppy defense that has conceded 11 times in those games. Lampard deploys a high-press on the opponent’s side of the field to generate more scoring opportunities. But one of the reasons why the rookie manager deploys this tactic is to compensate for the lack of defensive talent in their backline. Chelsea has allowed 11 goals in their seven league matches since the return. They have looked very shaky against less than offensive juggernauts as of late. Sheffield United generated 2.56 expected goals in a 3-0 loss to the Blades in their last road game. West Ham produced a 2.6 xG as well with meager offensive teams in Crystal Palace and Aston Villa also enjoyed 1.3 and 1.2 xG marks since the restart. To compound matters, Lampard will not have the services of one of the best holding midfielders in the world in N’Golo Kante who is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Their Blues defense has been good at home with opponents generating just a 0.83 xG at Stamford Bridge — but in that mark rises to a 1.59 xGA clip in their eighteen EPL matches on the road. And since Project Restart, Chelsea has an ugly 2.05 xGA when playing on the road. Additionally, the Blues have seen 27 combined goals scored in their nine league matches against Big Six sides.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea defeated Man United in the Finals of the 2018 English FA Cup by a 1-0 score — but they have since lost all six of their encounters with the Red Devils. These two teams have played three times in the 2019-20 season with Man United winning all three matches with eight goals combined while allowing just one goal. 10* FA Cup Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Manchester United (200406) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200405). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-20 |
Southampton +0.5 v. AFC Bournemouth |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D7-L6) is unbeaten in their last five matches after they eked out a 1-1 draw at home versus Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L21) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they lost at Manchester City by a 2-1 score on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is the surprising favorite in this match for two reasons. First, the Cherries are desperate for the win since they need those three points in their chase to catch Watford for 17th place in the EPL table to avoid relegation. While Bournemouth may be motivated, their sense of urgency does not replace talent or cohesion on the pitch. The Cherries have been in the danger zone of being relegated since Project Restart — yet this motivation did not inspire quality efforts in a 4-1 loss at home to Newcastle United nor a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace in the last month. On paper, their narrow loss to the previous two-time defending champions in Man City along with a 4-1 win against a Leicester City side who begin this match week 37 tied with Manchester United for 4th place in the table along with a 0-0 draw against a traditional Big Six opponent at Tottenham gives the appearance that manager Eddie Howe has found some answers late in the season. Well, let’s talk about those results. That nil-nil draw with the Spurs was a disgusting display on both sides particularly for a Tottenham group that failed to register even one big chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. The Spurs were tired playing their third game in six days — and they were lackadaisical against a Cherries team that had the worst statistical defense in the league since the return at that time while allowing nine combined goals in their previous two matches. Leicester City then dominated them in the first half of their next match — before apparently getting high on their own supply at halftime as they came out sloppy and listless. A terrible error by goaltender Kasper Schmeichel allowed Junior Stanislas to tie the match on a penalty kick — and then Dominic Solanke scored just a minute later after a lack of focus defensive error. The Foxes’ Caglar Soyuncu then kicked Solanke in frustration after scoring that goal which earned him a red card while giving Bournemouth an 11-versus-10 advantage on the pitch from which they scored those final two goals. The NBC-Sports Network pundits wished to credit Howe for inspiring his team for the rally — but I think all credit/blame goes to Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers for letting his team return to the field with such a lack of intensity. The Cherries then faced a Man City team that did not start Kevin DeBruyne (who got the entire match off), Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, and Aymeric LaPorte to rest them for their upcoming FA Cup Semifinals match on Saturday. The Cityzens still raced to a 2-0 lead in the first 39 minutes of that match before hitting cruise control. David Brooks scored a late goal in the 88th minute to make the final score appear closer than it felt. So, let bettors think those results represent a late resurgence. This remains a team that has only generated 15 points in the league since November. Bournemouth has lost eighteen of their last twenty-five matches — and they won only one of their last eleven matches while getting outscored by a 24 to 12 margin and losing eight those contests. The Cherries have been an aggressive team playing with a frenetic pace under Howe’s tenure — but forward Joshua King has been lost since the return to play while his partner up top in Callum Wilson has been so ineffective that he did not start on Wednesday. With these two struggling, Howe has not had a “Plan B” for his team. And the defense that has always been the weakness for this team has been dreadful. The Cherries have allowed 38 goals in their last nineteen matches with just one clean sheet in that embarrassing display by the Spurs. They have allowed 15 goals in their seven matches in Project Restart. Furthermore, to make matters even worse, their defender in center back Nathan Ake, is out for this match (and likely the season) with an injury. Southampton is W3-D3-L1 in project restart which places them tied with Everton in 11th place. Using the expected goals metric, the Saints rise to 8th place in expected points (xPTS). This is a quality team that has found themselves after an embarrassing 9-0 loss at home to Leicester City. Hassenhuttl stuck to his guns regarding an aggressive high-press — and a move from a back-four to a back-three defensive alignment after the international break in the winter triggered a W7-D2-L3 run. Southampton upset Man City on July 5th and they have upset both 3rd place Chelsea and 4th place Leicester City on the road. The Saints have played much better away from their home at Saint Mary’s as their 28 points on the road are tied for the 4th most — and the metrics indicate this is not a fluke since their xPTS rise to a 29.40 mark. Southampton has won the expected goals (xG) battle in their four matches on the road since the restart with a W2-D2-L0 mark where they outscored their home hosts by a 9-4 margin. Over their last ten road games, they are W6-D2-L2 with nineteen goals and just thirteen goals allowed. Additionally, they are W7-D2-L2 in their last eleven road matches against non-Big Six opponents while scoring twenty goals and allowing just ten goals. If there has been a weakness with this team, it has been on defense — but they have allowed only seven goals in their matches in Project Restart.
FINAL TAKE: The metrics scream Southampton in this match. At this point in the season, the concern with backing the Saints regards to their possible lack of motivation in this match since they are stuck in the middle of the table safe from relegation but eliminated from Europa League qualification. Yet I see several reasons why I expect the Saints to be locked-in for this match. First, they are building momentum for next fall under Hasenhuttl who signed to a four-year extension before the return to play this spring. Second, the team would love to help Danny Ings earn a Golden Boot which remains an outside possibility with his 20 goals which is second best but three behind Jamie Vardy. Third, Southampton is playing with revenge on their mind after a 3-1 loss at home to the Cherries in the reverse fixture back on September 20th. Fourth, the Saints would relish the chance to send their south coast English rivals back to the Championship League with a victory. Bournemouth cannot settle for the one point with a draw with just one more game left for the 2019-20 season. Don’t be surprised if Southampton steals a victory late with Ings scoring in a counter-attack (but take the Saints plus the goal-line for some very valuable insurance). But a Cherries loss would be devastating to their ambition to avoid relegation — and Southampton would be very happy to deliver that blow. 25* English Premier League Underdog of the Year with Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-18-20 |
Manchester City -1.5 v. Arsenal |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-104 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Manchester City reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 2-0 victory at Newcastle United. Arsenal joined them that day in the FA Cup Semifinals when they defeated Sheffield United on the road by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Some bettors may be tempted to think that Arsenal will be dangerous underdogs in this contest after they upset English Premier League champions, Liverpool, on Wednesday by a 2-1 score also on their home pitch. The eye test and the deeper analytics of that match tell a different story. Liverpool played sloppy with a pair of defensive mistakes (including a rare error by superstar center back Virgil Van Dijk who might have made his first mistake all season) which allowed the Gunners their two goals. Arsenal managed only three shots in that match which was their lowest number in an EPL match since Opta starting tracking that statistic in 1992. They managed just 0.78 expected goals (xG) in that contest while allowing Liverpool to generate 2.51 xG — so they were very fortunate to pull that upset. Those metrics were eerily close to their previous EPL match against Tottenham where they lost by a 2-1 score while losing the xG battle by a 2.05-0.72 xG mark — and that is not a very good Spurs team right now. First-year manager Mikel Arteta has shifted the tactics of his team since taking over in December to have them play a defensive-oriented pragmatic attack which is the style of play many smaller teams embrace. Arteta needed to do this because Arsenal lacks quality talent in their backline defense. These cosmetic changes have helped as the Gunners have allowed just ten goals in their nine games since Project Restart. But these tactics have derailed their offensive attack. They are averaging a mere 9.3 shots per match in the EPL in their eight matches since the return which is the 5th lowest in the league. They are also generating only 0.9 big chances representing scoring opportunities of at least a 35% success rate per match — and their xG in their last eight EPL matches is 1.13. Arsenal is 9th in the EPL with 53 points yet the expected goals metric projects that mark should be just 43.34 based on expected points (xPTS). The Gunners are also overachieving at home at Emirates Stadium where their 33 points from a W9-D6-L3 mark in league play is tempered by just 24.15 xPTS which is 8th worst in the EPL. Man City is W6-D0-L2 in their eight EPL matches since the return with the highest xPTS mark over that span. They come off a 2-1 win over Bournemouth on Wednesday which may look listless at first glance — but keep in mind that manager Pep Guardiola rested his key players in that match. Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri, and Eric Garcia did not start this match while lynchpins Kevin DeBruyne and Aymeric LaPorte did not play at all to rest and prepare for this contest. Man City is disappointed to not pull off a three-peat with EPL titles — but they can still achieve a historic season by retaining their FA Cup national title before winning the European Championship League which is a feat they have not accomplished under Guardiola’s stewardship. And while they have “only” 75 points in the EPL this season, the xPTS raise that mark to 80.98 which is higher than even Liverpool’s xPTS. The Cityzens have missed LaPorte anchoring their defense as he has spent much of the year injured. But since his return, Man City has shutout eight of their last thirteen opponents — and this includes six clean sheets in their nine contests in Project Restart.
FINAL TAKE: Man City has dominated Arsenal as of late — they have won the last seven encounters between these two teams with all of these victories by more than one goal. The Cityzens have scored at least three goals in six of those contests — and they have five clean sheets against the Gunners in those games. Overall, Man City has outscored Arsenal by a whopping 20-2 margin in these last seven battles. Man City won both EPL matches between these two teams by 3-0 scores with the last encounter being on June 17th where they also won the xG battle by a dominant 2.92-0.28 margin. A rested Man City should expose the suspect Arsenal defense who allowed their last two Big Six opponents in Liverpool and Tottenham to average 2.0 expected goals. 25* FA Cup Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-20 |
Watford v. West Ham United |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W9-D7-L9) looks to build off their 4-0 win at Norwich City last Saturday. Watford (W8-D10-L17) has won their last two matches after their 2-1 win at home over Newcastle United.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers are in good form right now — they are W2-D1-L1 in their last four contests while scoring nine goals and allowing just five goals. West Ham has scored at least two goals in three of their last four contests. The improvement can be attributed to manager David Moyes moving Michail Antonio up to forward as the primary attacker — and he has gelled with forward Jarrod Bowen on the wing who has been featured since he was acquired from Hull City in the winter transfer period. Antonio scored all four goals against the Canaries last week in that 4-0 victory! Over these last four matches, the Hammers have averaged a robust 2.71 expected goals (xG) while winning the expected goals battle in all four contests. West Ham returns home to London Stadium where they have underachieved this season — but they did defeat Chelsea at home back on July 1st by a 3-2 score. Watford’s last two victories have both been at home — but not they go back on the road where they have won just one time in their last nine matches. The Hornets have been shutout in their last four games away from home. For the season, Watford is generating just 1.02 xG in their seventeen road games while allowing 1.76 xG per contest. In their last six road games, the Hornets have managed just 4.74 xG in those games while conceding 9.29 expected goals allowed (xGA) combined in those contests. West Ham is going to score in this match as Watford has earned just one clean sheet in their twelve games. Ismail Sarr was playing great for manager Nigel Pearson when this team went on a nice run in the winter but the transfer who signed for a club-record has been listless and ineffective in Project Restart with just one shot in his last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are tied in 16th place with 34 points which is three points clear of relegation. A victory likely ensures the winner returns to the English Premier League in the fall. West Ham won the reverse fixture by a 3-1 score back on August 24th. The Hammers are in better form — and Watford has struggled when playing away from Vicarage Road. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Month with the West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-12-20 |
Leicester -0.5 v. AFC Bournemouth |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-138 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D8-L9) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Arsenal on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D7-L20) snapped a five-game losing streak with a nil-nil draw at home versus Tottenham on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes have only lost one match in their five games in Project Restart but they are disappointed with settling for three draws over that span. Leicester City was playing their best soccer in the fall before taking a step back — but they remain in 4th place in the EPL table with a one-point lead over Manchester United pending this match week’s results. But there are reasons for optimism for this team: Jamie Vardy has scored three goals in the last two games. As Vardy goes, so do the Foxes. If he gets into form, he can carry this team on his shoulders. He has more Big Chances of scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate over the last two games matches the number of Big Chances he has generated in his previous nine matches combined. The Foxes are playing stingy defense as they have allowed just four goals in their five matches since the return. Leicester City tends to feast on the bottom teams in the league as well. The Foxes are W15-D5-L4 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 52 goals and allowing just 11 goals. Additionally, Leicester City is W7-D2-L3 in their twelve road matches against non-Power Six opponents with 27 goals and just nine goals conceded. Bournemouth has scored just three goals in Project Restart while conceding 12 goals. This is a team that seems resigned to being relegated under manager Eddie Howe who seems to have run out answers for this team. The Cherries play an open-style of play which is entertaining — but it is also dangerous when they are not scoring plenty of goals. Bournemouth had allowed nine goals in their previous two matches before not allowing the Spurs to score in their last match. That result may speak more to the woeful state of Tottenham right now under enigmatic manager Jose Mourinho than it does about any improved play with the Cherries. The 2.4 goals-per-game they are allowing since the restart is the highest number in the EPL. Bournemouth is just W5-D4-L15 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 21 goals and allowing 39 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Bournemouth did win the expected goals battle with Tottenham by a 1.50-0.67 xG clip but that was the first time they outperformed their opponent in that metric since the restart. They enter this match with two fewer days of rest which will not help their chances of fending off relegation. The Cherries find themselves six points from safety entering this match. Leicester City won the reverse fixture back on August 31st by a 3-1 score. The Foxes are motivated and rested — and they tend to play their best soccer against the weaker teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-20 |
Betis v. Atletico Madrid -1 |
|
0-1 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (201906) minus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201905). THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid (W16-D15-L4) remained unbeaten in their last fifteen contests across all competitions with their 1-1 draw at Celta de Vigo on Tuesday. Real Betis (W10-D11-L4) looks to build off a 3-0 win over Osasuna on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was just the second win since the return for Los Verdiblancos — but that victory was against the last place Espanyol. Real Betis then hired Manuel Pellegrini the next day to a three-year contract which will begin for the 2020-21 campaign. Interim manager and current Sporting Director Alexis Trujillo will remain on the sidelines for this team for this match — but the players may experience an emotional letdown with things settled for next season. Los Verdiblancos go back on the road where they are winless in their last ten matches. Real Betis is averaging just 1.13 expected goals (xG) in their seventeen road matches in league play while allowing 1.91 expected goals (xGA) which compares unfavorably to their 1.79 xG - 1.32 xGA mark when playing at home. Los Verdiblancos have scored more than one goal just twice in their last ten road matches. Scoring will be difficult for Real Betis at Wanda Metropolitano where Atletico Madrid has allowed only ten goals in La Liga which is the stingiest mark in the league. Atleti has registered seven clean sheets in their last eleven home games. They have won all three of their home matches since the restart with a 2.04 xG mark along with holding their three guests to just 0.76 xGA. Atletico Madrid has won five of their eight matches since the return to action last month — and they have won the expected goals battle in all eight matches. Furthermore, Atleti has won the xG battle in twenty-eight of their thirty-five league matches this season. Despite settling for the 1-1 draw on Tuesday on the road at Celta, they won the xG battle by a 1.12-0.31 clip in that contest. They have scored a healthy 16 goals in their eight matches since the return while posting a solid 13.6 combined xG mark in those games. They return home where they have lost only once in their last twenty-four league games — and they have scored in twelve straight home games.
FINAL TAKE: Atletico Madrid can all-but clinch their spot in the Champions League with three more points that come with a victory as they currently sit tied with Sevilla in 3rd place in the table. 3rd place also avoids additional qualifying hurdles for the new Champions League season which manager Diego Simeone would prefer to avoid. Real Betis has little to play for now with a new manager in place. They are sitting in the middle of the table in 13th place where they are 9 points safe from relegation but a dozen points shy of 6th place and the last guaranteed spot for the Europa League in the fall. Atletico Madrid defeated Real Betis on the road by a 2-1 score back on December 22nd. Look for Atleti to have an easier time of it in this rematch. 20* La Liga Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atletico Madrid (201906) minus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201905). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.25 v. Sheffield United |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200033) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200034). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W13-D13-L7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal. Sheffield United (W12-D12-L9) is unbeaten in their last two matches on Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Burnley.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sheffield United faces a challenging situation with this being their fourth game in the last eleven days. Because of needing to catch up on a delayed league match prior to the stoppage of play along being still alive in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup, the Blades have played two more matches than the Wolves entering this contest — so fatigue is a real concern here. As a promoted side this season, Sheffield United simply lacks the depth of some of the other traditional EPL powers. As it is, the Blades are dealing with a number of injuries in their midfield with John Lundstram, John Fleck, and Luke Freeman all out for this match. Cracks are showing with this Sheffield United defense as they have allowed 48 scoring chances since the restart in league play while surrounding 2.5 Big Chances representing scoring opportunities of at least a 35% success rate. Regression was perhaps inevitable for manager Chris Wilder’s team on defense as they may be allowing only 1.00 goals-per-game but that numbers rise to a 1.44 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Furthermore, the Blades have allowed just 14 goals at home at Bramall Lane at home, their xGA at home rises to a 19.07 mark. Wolverhampton had shutout seven of their last eight opponents before losing to the Gunners on Saturday. The Wolves play consistently sound defense for manager Nuno Espirito Santo — and they are even better when they have Willy Boly healthy and paired with Roman Saiss as they will in this match. Wolverhampton has been consistent on the road where they hold their opponents to just 1.06 goals-per-game while averaging 1.44 goals-per-game. They are 3rd in the league with 27 points on the road — and they are 2nd in the EPL in expected points (xPTS).
FINAL TAKE: These two teams settled for a 1-1 drawback on December 1st back when Sheffield United was healthier and playing much better on the defensive end of the pitch. With the Blades dealing with knocks and a challenging makeup schedule, they are at a disadvantage when hosting (without fans) a Wolves team playing with one extra day of rest and two fewer matches under their belts since the return. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Wolverhampton (200033) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-20 |
Everton +0.5 v. Tottenham Hotspur |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). THE SITUATION: Everton (W12-D8-L12) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-1 win over Leicester City last Wednesday. Tottenham (W12-D9-L11) looks to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Sheffield United on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was a devastating psychological loss for Tottenham who was playing with much more rest than the promoted Blades who had played in two matches since the Spurs’ last contest. And while Tottenham complained about a controversial VAR call that took a Harry Kane goal off the board late in the first half, they were not dealt a bad hand according to the deeper metrics as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.46-1.08 xG margin. New manager Jose Mourinho expressed his displeasure with his team’s effort after the match because Mourinho can never fail — he can only be failed (in his world). I don’t that is going to sit well with a veteran locker room whose lack of interest already got Mauricio Pochettino fired earlier in the season. Mourinho wears his players thin — and that process may already be underway in these uniquely challenging circumstances with the Spurs’ players having little at stake. Frankly, the problems of this team are systemic of an organization not willing to get out their wallets to compete with the other Big Six franchises. Harry Kane has lost a step or two after two injury-riddled campaigns — and if he is no longer an all-world striker, this team’s quality quickly plummets. Mourinho changed Pochettino’s tactics from a pressing, possession team to a counter-attacking squad. While that makes the Spurs dangerous against elite possession sides like Liverpool and Man City, it can leave them flummoxed against other counter-attacking sides like Sheffield United. Tottenham was simply bereft of scoring ideas against the Blades when advancing the ball. Son-Heung-Min has been relegated to an afterthought playing wide on the wing. Dele Alli was perhaps the player who most benefited from Mourinho’s appointment — but he was suspended last week and remains a doubt this week with a hamstring injury. The sugar-high from Mourinho’s appointment has lone gone with the Spurs’ short-term improvement in play now overwhelmed by consistently troubling numbers. Tottenham’s defense is atrocious — they have the 5th most expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL since Mourinho took over in November with those numbers worsening to being 3rd worth in the league since the start of 2020. They also have the league’s worst xGA rate when playing at home in this calendar year. The Spurs are allowing 1.85 xGA under Mourinho which is not being neutralized by their offensive attack since they have produced only a 1.58 xG during that span with the manager which is only 8th best in the EPL. Tottenham under Mourinho is 11th in the EPL in net expected goal differential (xGD) and they are 13th in expected points (xPTS). I made the argument last week that those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt given the bevy of injuries that this team has faced all season. In retrospect, I should not have read too much into their recent victory over a relegation-threatened West Ham while appreciating that their 1-1 draw with Man United was both fortunate and a by-product of their counter-attacking tactics meshing well with the Red Devils’ forward aggressiveness. And, of course, any hopes that a healthy Spurs side will begin outperforming their metrics assume a team that is still playing hard for their manager. Returning home to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would normally be seen a positive for this team — but a stadium without fans is not what this group needs right now. Furthermore, the Spurs are averaging only 1.48 xG at home under Mourinho while seeing their opponents produce a 1.63 xG in those games. Everton has won two of three matches in Project Restart with their lone blemish being a nil-nil draw with Liverpool where they won the xG battle. The Toffees have played much better since Carlo Ancelotti was appointed as the replacement of manager Marco Silva. In fact, Everton’s W7-D4-L3 record since his appointment is 4th best in the EPL. The Toffees have lost only three times under Ancelotti to Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal (in a game where the xG says they should have won). They are 4th best in the EPL over that span with a 1.93 xG on offense — and they have improved on defense with a 1.26 xGA which is an improvement over a 1.34 xGA under Silva. But Everton’s defense has particularly elevated in quality recently — they are allowing only 1.25 Big Chances (shots with a success rate of at least 35%) since match week 25 and they have surrendered just one goal in three matches since the return. The Toffees go back on the road where they have only 15 points — but the xG numbers indicate they are the second-most underachieving team in the league when playing away from home. Under Ancelotti, Everton has been the 3rd best road team in terms of expected goals with 1.93-1.34 xG marks — and they have been the most efficient team on the road in the EPL since Christmas.
FINAL TAKE: Everton’s 44 points puts them in 11th place and just one point behind Tottenham. But the metrics tell a different story with the Toffees rising to 7th best in the league in xPTS while the Spurs drop to 13th. Everton has a dominant +0.56 net expected points differential edge for Tottenham over the season — even before accounting for recent form. The Toffees still have a potential Europa League qualification alive as well with them being just four points behind Sheffield United in 7th place and the likely final qualifying spot. 25* EPL Monday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-20 |
Barcelona FC v. Villarreal +0.75 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). THE SITUATION: Real Villarreal (W16-D6-L11) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win at Real Betis on Wednesday. Barcelona (W21-D7-L5) has settled for draws in three of their last four matches after a 2-2 draw at home with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL VILLARREAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It has been a disastrous return to play for the reigning La Liga champions who have lost their grip on first place. Barcelona opened Project Restart last month with a two-point lead up on Real Madrid — but after Los Blancos late 1-0 victory over Athletico Bilbao this morning, Barca find themselves seven points behind their arch-rivals. The Blaugranas must win out their remaining five matches while hoping that Real Madrid drops points somewhere — without the benefit of another head-to-head match. Frankly, the writing is on the wall for this team with rumors of internal dissension with new manager Quique Setien who came on in January along with talk that Lionel Messi may be ready to jump ship when his contract expires next season. Antoine Griezmann is mired in a slump which has probably impacted Messi as he is enduring his worst statistical season in terms of efficiency in five seasons. Barcelona has systemic problems right now. They are too reliant on Messi to bail them out of trouble. They have been too slow in building up play when possessing the ball. They have been vulnerable against counter-attacks. And there have been too many issues with their backline that Setien inherited but has been unable to fix. Barca is just 6th in La Liga in fewest goals allowed which is unfamiliar territory for them. This team has not been the victims of bad luck as they lost the expected goals (xG) with Atletico Madrid while holding narrow edges with the xG numbers in their other two matches. The vulnerabilities of the Catalan Giants most often demonstrate themselves when playing on the road against the top teams in the league. Barcelona has won only two of their last eight matches on the road versus a top-ten La Liga opponent while losing three of these matches outright. They are also getting beaten in the xG numbers by a 1.22-0.90 xG margin in those eight road matches. Since Setien has taken over, they are generating 1.55 xG on the road while seeing their home hosts produce a 1.27 xG mark. Those are good numbers but not nearly the elite standard that Barca has set over the last five seasons where they have won four league titles. Real Villarreal was limping before the stoppage of play with three straight losses — but they have returned with a renewed focus by going unbeaten in their six matches with five victories. The Yellow Submarines have only allowed two goals in these six matches while producing five clean sheets. A switch to a 4-4-2 formation by manager Javier Calleja has helped trigger these outstanding defensive numbers by adding a fourth defender in their backline. Real Villarreal is holding their opponents to just 0.92 xG since the switch to a 4-4-2 while their quality in attack up top is still producing 2.06 xG in those games. The Yellow Submarines are also getting these good results against the best that La Liga has to offer. Real Villarreal has a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid along with a nil-nil result with Atletico Madrid and a 2-2 draw with Sevilla (the other teams in the top four of the table) along with a 1-0 win over Getafe. They now find themselves three points out of 4th place with serious Champions League aspirations in the fall. Real Villarreal is one of the mainstays in this league with top-six finishes from 2013 through 2018 before a disappointing 14th place finish last year. They have scored in 21 of their last 22 league matches — and they have also scored in 29 of their last 31 home games against La Liga competition. The Yellow Submarines are producing a healthy 2.16 xG in their sixteen home matches this season while holding their guests to just 1.46 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Real Villarreal will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss to Barcelona at Camp Nou back on September 24th. These are much different less than ten months later with Ernesto Valverde no longer the skipper for Barca and the Yellow Submarines playing their best soccer in years. These two teams played to a 4-4 draw when playing at Real Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica last year — so the home dog will be confident that they can pull the upset this time around. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports Match of the Month with Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-04-20 |
Watford v. Chelsea -1 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W16-D6-L10) looks to rebound from a disappointing 3-2 upset loss at West Ham on Wednesday. Watford (W6-D10-L16) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Chelsea was vulnerable to an emotional letdown after pulling off a dramatic 2-1 victory over Man City (which eliminated the two-time defending EPL champions from repeating this season) and then following that up with a 1-0 victory at Leicester City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup last Sunday. Sure enough, this young Blues team traveled on the road to face a counter-attacking Hammers team desperate for a victory as they fight to avoid relegation. Chelsea has still looked very good since the return to play last month with three wins in four matches. They remain very motivated to play well as they are in a dog fight to qualify for one of the four spots for next year’s Champions League. The Blues begin match week 33 in 4th place in the EPL table two points ahead of Manchester United and Wolverhampton. The underlying metrics love this team — while Chelsea sits in 4th place with 54 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 60.38 is 3rd best in the EPL. Those numbers would likely be even better since there without an injured Christian Pulisic for much of the season. The American appears to be the real deal — he leads the EPL in touches inside the box since the return to play last month. The Blues return home to Stamford Bridge where they are W8-D3-L5 this season. They have scored only 24 goals at home this year but the metrics suggest they have been unfortunate in that regard with an expected goals mark (xG) of 37.43. Chelsea’s xPTS at home jump to 37 with them averaging 2.34 xG and allowing just 0.74 xGA — and that +1.60 xG differential is the 2nd best home mark in the EPL this season. With Pulisic healthy and the Blues playing in a 4-3-3 formation that Frank Lampard shifted to midseason (which gets defender Marco Alonso on the pitch who is an effective player in their attack), Chelsea is one of the top teams in the league. Watford had been playing well after manager Javi Garcia was sacked for Nigel Pearson in early December. The Hornets responded by going W4-D2-L1 in their first eight matches under Pearson before things began to slide with them going W1-D1-L4 in their final six matches before the stoppage of play. Since the return, Watford is just W0-D1-L2 while scoring just two goals (with one of those goals being an own-goal by Southampton last Sunday). The Hornets are just listless on offense right now with little energy. Ismaila Carr displayed a glimpse of brilliance when Pearson was appointed but he has been mostly absent since the return to action. Watford simply may not be motivated to play out the string of matches after being quarantined for months — and they do not seem to be overly concerned about their impending relegation with them currently in 17th place by just one point over Bournemouth and Aston Villa. The Hornets have won only one match over their last ten matches while averaging just 1.22 xG. Now they go back on the road where they are W2-D4-L10 in their sixteen EPL matches while averaging just 1.00 xG in those matches. Watford has won only once in their last eight road league matches. The Hornets are not equipped to grind out a lower-scoring match either as they have allowed the 6th most goals in the league this year — and they are tied for allowing the 5th most goals when playing on the road. They have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on November 2nd by a 2-1 score. With the Hornets out-of-form and with their motivation in question, an angry Blues team should bounce-back with a strong effort. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-04-20 |
Bayern Munich -1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the finals of the German Cup with their 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt back on June 10th. Bayer Leverkusen reached the finals of this tournament the day before when they defeated Saarbrucken by a 3-0 score. The 77th DFB-Pokal Cup will be played on a neutral field at Hertha Berlin’s Olympiastadion.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich may have become the best team in Europe once Hanso Flick was appointed manager of the team in early November. The Bavarians were underachieving in league play as they were perhaps a bit listless after seven straight Bundesliga titles. Flick made a few crucial adjustments that re-ignited this team. First, he deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation with a high press. Not only did this force more turnovers but the higher placed backline on the pitch served to force more suboptimal shots from their opponents. Flick also moved Joshua Kimmich from fullback up the pitch to a holding midfield position — and not only did this give more room to operate for this rising superstar but it opened up a starting slot for Phonzie at fullback with the Canadian thriving with the opportunity given his multiple skill set. It is a bounty of riches for this team with a reliable veteran at forward in Thomas Muller, a scoring machine as the attacker in Robert Lewandowski who has 49 goals in all competitions, and then a 19-year freak of an athlete in Alphonso Davies with the Canadian being the fastest player on the field. Bayern Munich easily went on to win their eighth straight Bundesliga title by 17 points and enter this match on a seventeen game winning streak. They won all ten of their matches in the return to play in May while scoring 29 times and conceding just seven goals. Bayer Leverkusen stumbled in the return to play in May as they only won five of their nine matches with three losses. They only outscored their nine opponents by +2 net goals while surrendering nine goals. Die Werkself controlled their own destiny to take one of the four qualifying slots for next fall’s Championship League — but a devastating 2-0 loss at home to a Hertha Berlin team going nowhere blew those chances. Bayer Leverkusen will have to again settle for playing in the Europa League — and that status may degrade their confidence in this match. Die Werkself finished 19 points below Bayern Munich. The weak link for this team is their defense — they allowed just the 8th fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season while dropping to 10th place for expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. The Bavarians are an offensive machine who scored 100 goals this season — and while the metrics (unsurprisingly) call for regression, their expected goals still amount to a whopping 92.85 figure.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two matches in the Bundesliga — but Bayern Munich won the last encounter between these two teams by a 4-2 score playing at Die Werkself’s Bay Arena. The Bavarians won their 19th DFB-Pokal Cup last year when they defeated RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score. Bayern Munich also has serious Champions League aspirations — so it will be all systems go for this juggernaut as they look to stay fresh for that competition next month while defending their German national championship crown. Bayer Leverkusen proved once again that they are not yet in the class of Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and this Bayern Munich organization after their disappointing finish. 25* Soccer ESPN2 Match of the Month with Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-04-20 |
Arsenal v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.25 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-102 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200193). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W13-D13-L6) looks to continue their hot run following a 1-0 win at Aston Villa last Saturday. Arsenal (W11-D13-L8) has won their last two matches after they defeated Norwich City at home on Wednesday by a 4-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have won all three of their matches since the return to action with clean sheets in all three matches with a low 1.23 expected goals allowed combined mark in those contests. Wolverhampton stymies Big Scoring chances (defined as those opportunities with at least a 35% success rate). They lead the EPL by allowing just 24 non-penalty kick Big Chances this season and they have held their opponents to just 0.75 Big Chances per match since match week 25. Their recent improvement in their already outstanding defense has been the return of Willy Boly to their backline who has missed much of the season to injury. Overall, the Wolves have the lost expected goals allowed mark (xGA) in the EPL. They are also 5th in the league with 52 Big Chances (non-PK) of their own. Arsenal has held their last two opponents scoreless while scoring six times — but four of those goals could be accurately described as gifts by the opposition (including three bizarre goaltender flubs). The Gunners are 8th in the EPL table but the expected points projections (xPTS) drops them to 11th. Now they go back on the road where they have only won three times this year — and they have won only one of their seven matches on the road under new manager Mikel Arteta. They are being outscored in the xG projections on the road by a 1.18 xG to 1.76 xGA margin. Furthermore, Arsenal tends to start fast but fade at the end of their matches. They have a net expected goal differential (xGD) of -4.88 in the final 30 minutes of a match — and Wolverhampton has a +9.64 xGD mark in the final 30 minutes of their games. The Wolves have won all three of their matches since the return with goals scored in the second half.
FINAL TAKE: The reverse fixture between these two teams resulted in a 1-1 draw despite the Wolves generating 25 shots in their counter-attack against an undisciplined Arsenal side. This is a terrible situation for the Gunners as they are playing their fifth match on the road since the return to play over eighteen days. Wolverhampton has had an entire week off while Arsenal has played two more matches during that break. 20* EPL Arsenal-Wolverhampton NBC-Sports Network Special with the Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-04-20 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Manchester United -1.75 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200186) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200185). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W14-D10-L8) remained unbeaten in their last fifteen matches across all competitions with their 3-0 victory at Brighton and Hove Albion on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D6-L19) are winless in their last seven matches after they lost at home to Newcastle United on Wednesday by a 4-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is simply a mess right now — and they look like they are resigned to accept relegation. They have lost all three of their matches since the return to action while scoring just one time and conceding seven goals. The Cherries have been an aggressive team under manager Eddie Howe which has spurred some exciting soccer for a midlevel team — if they win, it is usually because they outscore their opponent in higher-scoring contests. Yet Bournemouth has been tepid in their attack with just two shots on target in their last three matches and only one Big Chance with an estimated success rate of at least 35% (according to the deeper metrics) — that latter mark is tied for fewest in the EPL since the restart. The Cherries will still be without forward Callum Wilson who is serving his second game due to suspension. His mate up top in Joshua King is in a complete funk as he has been ineffective either due to a loss of confidence or a loss of spirit in this doomed season (or both). Bournemouth finds themselves tied with Aston Villa with the second-fewest points in the league. They are in the bottom-five in both expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA). Frankly, the problems have manifested themselves long before the restart as they have managed to produce only 11 points since November. Now they go on the road where they have lost seven straight EPL matches with three of these contests being by at least two goals. Manchester United is one of the hottest teams in the EPL with a W3-D1-L0 mark in their four contests since last month’s return to play. The issue for the Red Devils is whether they will win this match by at least two goals. Since they acquired Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes in the winter transfer window, Man United are unbeaten in all thirteen of his matches played with nine victories and nine clean sheets while scoring 31 goals and conceding just four goals. Fernandes has been just what the doctor ordered to provide cohesion in the middle of the field. The restart also afforded him the opportunity to begin playing with both midfielders Paul Pogba and forward Marcus Rashford who have spent much of the season injured. Suddenly, the Red Devils have a bounty of scoring talent. Fernandes and Pogba have combined for three goals and one assist since the return to play — and I have not even mentioned the hat trick Anthony Martial pulled off two matches ago against Sheffield United. But it is the play on defense that makes this Man United team so dangerous. The Red Devils have allowed only two goals while registering six clean sheets in their last eight matches in the EPL. Since match week 25, Man United is allowing only 1.0 Big Chances per match — and they have allowed both the fewest shots and the fewest Big Chances since the return to action last month. They return home to Old Trafford where they have won each of their last three matches by at least two goals with eight combined goals scored and none conceded over that stretch. The Red Devils have five straight clean sheets at home having not surrendered a goal at home since January 22nd. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) at home of 0.80 is 3rd best in the EPL. And they have scored 13 goals in their last four home matches.
FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top of this situation (pun intended) is that Man United will not be taking Bournemouth lightly after losing to them on the road in the reverse fixture between these two teams on November 2nd by a 1-0 score. Motivated by revenge and their pursuit of a top-four spot on the EPL table to ensure qualification for next fall’s Championship League, I think the chances of a 3-0 (or better) result are higher than a 1-0 (or 2-1) final score (and we can live with a 2-0/3-1 push). 10* EPL Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Manchester United (200186) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200185). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-20 |
Liverpool v. Manchester City -0.5 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
107 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester City (200178) minus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200177). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W20-D3-L8) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at Chelsea last Thursday in their most recent English Premier League match. Liverpool (W28-D2-L1) clinched the 2019-20 EPL championship with that loss from the Cityzens combined with their 4-0 victory at home against Crystal Palace last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool may suffer an emotional letdown after winning the championship. While this team did not have the opportunity to hit every bar in London given COVID-19 social restrictions, the emotional intensity for this team may not be the same who now have nothing else to play for after being eliminated from the Champions League and FA Cup competitions earlier in the year. As it is, the Reds seemed to have let up a bit in their focus earlier in the year when their championship became considered inevitable. They dropped more points in a three-match string of games than they had in the previous thirty-eight EPL contests before defeating Crystal Palace last week. They also had been shutout in two of their previous three matches before scoring four goals against the Eagles. Now Liverpool goes back on the road where they are winless in their last four matches while losing three times. They have not scored a goal in their last four games — and their star attacker, Mo Salah, has scored only two of his 17 league goals away from their home pitch at Anfield. The Reds have 86 points — but the deeper expected goals metrics projects them with just 64.04 expected points (xPTS). Man City tops that mark with 68.97 xPTS. Man City did respond from their elimination from defending their two-straight EPL titles by defeating Newcastle United on Sunday by a 2-0 score. Yet manager Pep Guardiola should have his team razor-focused for this match. Throwing out their response to a 2-0 loss to Manchester United since COVID-19 delayed their next league match by three months, Guardiola has seen his team win all six of their next EPL matches after a loss while scoring 19 goals and conceding just one goal. They still have plenty to play for being alive in both the FA Cup and the Champions League. And while Sergio Aguero is out for this team, Gabriel Jesus is more than capable as the team’s striker in his absence after not playing in that match against the Blues. Aguero averages 0.74 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes — but Jesus tops those numbers by average 0.77 xG per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have a chip on their shoulder having to watch the traditional Guard of Honour recognizing Liverpool’s championship on their home pitch. The Cityzens have won six of their last seven matches at home at Etihad Stadium while scoring 19 goals and allowing just four goals. And they will be looking to avenge a 3-1 loss at Liverpool back on November 10th. Look for Man City to stun the new champions. 10* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Manchester City (200178) minus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200177). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-20 |
Tottenham Hotspur -0.5 v. Sheffield United |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W12-D9-L10) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over West Ham last Tuesday. Sheffield United (W11-D11-L9) comes off a 2-1 loss at Arsenal in the FA Cup on Sunday that followed up a 3-0 loss last Wednesday at Manchester United in their last English Premier League contest.
REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Spurs match with the Hammers was the first time under manager Jose Mourinho where he had a full complement of the team’s best scoring options at his disposal. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have been injured for much of time since Mourinho took over in mid-November and Dele Alli was suspended for their 1-1 draw with Manchester United in their first match back from the March stoppage. A healthy Spurs’ side generated a potent 2.53 expected goals against West Ham pointing to the still elite potential of this team. Remember, it was just over a year ago that this Tottenham team was in the finals of the Champions League where they lost to Liverpool for the European Championship. The team seemed tired of manager Mauricio Pochettino’s message in the fall with their sluggish play which led to him being sacked amidst disagreements with management over the direction of the team. Mourinho has ditched Pochettino’s pressing approach for a counter-attacking style that may be better attuned for the injuries he was facing midseason before the stoppage of play in March. Limiting the Hammers to just 0.84 expected goals is encouraging as is their 1-1 draw with Man United last week with the Red Devils being one of the hottest teams in the EPL. The most encouraging aspect of this team may from the play of Kane last week as he scored a goal and played with more energy and vigor on the pitch than he has demonstrated in a long time. The three months off may have been just what the doctor ordered for the forward who has won two straight Golden Boots in the EPL. Sheffield United is scoreless in their last six league matches — and they have only scored once in their four matches in the return to play last month. They have allowed eight goals in their last three matches. Perhaps a visit from the Regression Gods was inevitable — while the Blades rank 8th in the EPL with 44 points, their expected points (xPTS) drops them to 13th with 39.97 points in those projected rankings. This has always been a defense-first club under manager Chris Wilder — but injuries and a busy schedule testing the depth of a promoted side have challenged this team. Their best defender in center back Jack O’Connell remains a doubt with his injury for this match and defensive midfielder John Lunstram only played 35 minutes on Sunday with an ankle injury that may keep him out for this contest. After holding their opponents to just 6.82 inside the box before the break, Sheffield United have allowed 10 shots in EPL play since the return to play. And the Blades are allowing 3 big chances representing scoring chances of a 35% or better success rate per match since the return as compared to the 1.89 big chances they were allowed before the break. Or, maybe their injuries and challenges of the thin backline are just excuses for those inevitable Regression Gods: Sheffield United has allowed only 31 goals this season which is 3rd best in the EPL — but their 42.88 xGA is just 8th best in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United was an overachieving team this season that was benefiting from great cohesion. All that was spoiled by the stoppage of lay — and the Blades have not only regressed back to the mean in terms of their underlying metrics but their lack of depth and experience has them playing like the promoted team they were expected to be when they rejoined the EPL this season. These two teams settled with a 1-1 draw in November. But now Tottenham is much healthier under a new manager — and Sheffield United has not only played twice as many matches since the return risking fatigue with their limited depth but they are also playing their third match since the Spurs last took the pitch last Tuesday. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-20 |
Leicester v. Everton |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D8-L12) looks to build off their 1-0 win at Norwich City last Wednesday. Leicester City (W16-D7-L8) lost their FA Cup Quarterfinals match at home against Chelsea on Sunday by a 1-0 score after settling for a nil-nil draw at home against Brighton in their last English Premier League match last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Leicester City was riding high after their first seventeen league matches where they had 39 points while generation 1.93 expected points (xG) and allowing just 1.05 expected points (xGA). But the Foxes have lost their mojo since that time as they have managed just 16 points over their last fourteen league matches. They have regressed on both sides of the pitch as they have averaged just 1.48 xG over that span while allowing 1.65 xGA. They have experienced a massive -1.04 expected goal differential drop over that span. What has happened? For starters, their talisman Jamie Vardy has not been himself as he got into a scoring funk that was exacerbated by missing a couple of matches to an injury. His big chances of scoring opportunities of 35% or higher have plummeted since his hot streak in the fall. This malaise has spread to the entire team that has seen its tenacity and pace decline. The Foxes are also not getting great play out of their midfielders — and they will be without James Maddison for this match. Leicester City has not scored in four of their last six league matches while averaging just 1.13 xG over those contests — and they were then shutout on Sunday by Chelsea. They have won only four times in their last fourteen EPL matches. Since the return to play this month, they have generated only 1.68 expected goals in both their EPL matches — and they lost the expected goals battle against two teams mired in the bottom-six of the table in Brighton and Watford. Not good, Bob. Perhaps what Leicester City is experiencing is simply a long-overdue visit from the Regression Gods. While they are 3rd in the league in the table, their expected points of 49.71 drop them to 6th best. Everton is unbeaten in their last seven EPL matches — and they probably deserved a win in their draw with Liverpool in their first game back from the break. This is a much-improved team under manager Carlo Ancelotti. They have generated 1.98 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.22 xGA with that xG differential being the 5th best in the league over that span. The Toffees are one of three EPL teams entering this match week that have yet to concede a big chance. They return home to Goodison Park where they have only scored 19 times — but their xG at home rises to 24.05 which strongly suggests they have experienced some tough luck. Everton plays very tough defense at home as they held their opponents to just 1.12 xGA on their home pitch — and they have also held the top half of the table to just 1.19 xGA at home this season. The Toffees are unbeaten at home under Ancelotti with three wins in those six matches while allowing just four combined goals. And in their last eight matches against non-Big Six sides under Ancelotti, Everton is beaten in those contests with six wins and a +7 net goal differential with 14 goals scored. The Toffees still have much to play for despite being in 12th place as they are just four points out of 7th place and the likely final spot to qualify for the Europa League next fall. Their 49.48 expected points (xPTS) are 7th best in the league a just behind Leicester City’s number.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will have revenge on their minds as well for this contest having lost three straight matches to the Foxes across all competitions. The Toffees lost the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 1st by a 2-1 score before then losing at Leicester City in the League Cup via penalty kicks after a 2-2 score back on December 18th. Manager Marco Silva was in charge of both those matches — so this is the Toffees' first opportunity to play the Foxes since Ancelotti took over the club. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Year with the Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-20 |
Real Sociedad v. Getafe CF |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). THE SITUATION: Getafe (W13-D10-L8) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Valladolid last Tuesday. Real Sociedad (W14-D5-L12) has lost three straight matches after their 1-0 loss to Celta Vigo on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE GETAFE WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Real Sociedad is a young and vibrant team that was making a serious challenge to finish in the top-four in the La Liga this season which would qualify them for next year’s Champions League. But this team has struggled in the return to play this month as they have lost three of their four matches with just one draw keeping things from being completely dismal. We had La Real in that opening match at home against Osasuna where I endorsed a strong play on Real Sociedad given the underlying metrics for both teams along with the apparent mismatch for both teams with Osasuna not having much to play for in the return to play. But watching that match made it evident that La Real was simply not very motivated despite a rally from their 1-0 deficit to eke out the draw. There have been a handful of younger players across the European leagues who did not keep themselves in tip-top shape during quarantine who have then been slow to get back to game-shape. With Real Sociedad now on a three-game losing streak and seven points out of 4th place that would qualify them for the Champions League, the motivation for this team is in question moving forward. Injuries — or the lowered threshold of what is a debilitating injury — has made matters worse for this team. La Real will be without their captain Asier Illarramendi along with Ander Barrenetxea, Lucas Sangalli, and Ander Guevara are dealing with injuries that will likely keep them out for this match. And their key backline player in Diego Llorente is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Wednesday. This potential Champions League team is simply a shell of their best days pre-COVID. They have only scored two times in their four matches after being 3rd in the league in scoring before the stoppage in play. Now Real Sociedad goes back on the road where they are 8th in the La Liga with 20 points — but their expected points (xPTS) of 16.20 in their fifteen road matches are just 11th best in the league. Getafe is winless in their last five contests — but they have only lost once in their four matches since the return to action. The Azulones engage in an intense style that may have been difficult to reproduce without a set of friendlies before returning to league action after three months off. But every week that passes should help Getafe return to the form that keeps them in 5th place in La Liga just 5 points out of 4th place (and Champions League qualification) entering this match in the live standings. Getafe has only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play. They return home for this match where they have lost only three times in sixteen league matches — and those losses were against Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid who are the top-three teams in the league. The Azulones have been a bit unfortunate at home with their 22 goals scored contrasting with their 28.12 expected goals (xG) at home which is 4th best in La Liga. They will also be without their best defender in center back Djene Dakonam who was suspended for this match after being dealt his second yellow card on Tuesday. But the Azulones have a bit more to play for at this point of the season — and they have one extra day of rest while being in better form than La Real.
FINAL TAKE: Getafe won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 21- score on the road. Getafe has won five of the last six meetings between these two teams — look for them to continue their dominance in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Network Match of the Year with Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-27-20 |
Manchester United -1 v. Norwich City |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester United reached the Quarterfinals of this event back on March 5th when they defeated Derby County on the road by a 3-0 score. Norwich City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup the day before on March 4th when they upset Tottenham via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big six powers in the English Premier League tend to rotate players for these FA Cup matches with this competition not as prestigious as the English Premier League and the Champions League. But Gunnar Solskjaer has never won a championship as a manager so he may be keener to produce a lineup that will lead to victory in this match. At the very least, Solskjaer will likely call on his big guns if his team does not have a lead in the second half. And he certainly has the benefit of a deeper bench than what this Norwich City team has available to them as the last-place team in the EPL. Man United is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches with nine victories over that span. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary on Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. But it is the play on defense that has made the biggest difference for Solskjaer’s side. The Red Devils have registered clean sheets in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. And they are just one of three teams to not allow even one big chance since the EPL returned to action this month. They go on the road for this match but they are averaging over 2.0 expected goals away from home in league play — and they are unbeaten in their last seven matches on the road in the EPL. While this is technically not an English Premier League match, I am comfortable looking at that data when assessing how they will perform against another EPL team. Norwich City is in deep trouble to be relegating as they are six points behind the three-way tie for 19th place in the EPL. They have managed only 8 points in their last eleven matches where they have won just one match. The Canaries have lost both their matches since the return to play while failing to score and allowing four goals. Norwich City is struggling on both sides of the pitch. They have been held scoreless in six of their last seven matches — and they scored just one time in that one game where they were not blanked. The Canaries have the worst attack in the EPL — and they have only managed two shots on target in their two matches since the return to play. They have also allowed a whopping 21 shots inside the box in their two matches this month — and they are last in the EPL in expected goals allowed.
FINAL TAKE: Man United swept the two EPL matches between these two sides this season as they followed up a 3-1 win at Carrow Road in October with a 4-0 win at home at Old Trafford on January 11th. While rotation risks exist with the Red Devils for this match, keep in mind that they play five straight matches against teams in the bottom seven in the EPL starting with this contest so Solskjaer may feel comfortable playing some of his key players to make sure his team advances to the Semifinals. And because Norwich City will be playing with abandon in this elimination contest, a Red Devils route is very possible. 25* FA Cup Match of the Month with the Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-27-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 v. Aston Villa |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W12-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their two matches since the return to play this month after they defeated Bournemouth on Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D6-L18) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves are playing outstanding soccer right now as they are unbeaten in their last five EPL matches with four victories. They have scored nine goals in those five matches while conceding just two goals. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team is playing suffocating defense with six clean sheets in their last seven league matches. They have held their two opponents since the return to just 0.40 combined expected goals allowed after limiting a solid Cherries’ attack to just 0.13 expected goals allowed (xGA). Wolverhampton is significantly better — and more confident — in thwarting their opponent’s attack when Willy Boly is healthy and on the pitch. In their fifteen EPL matches with Boly, they are allowing just 0.50 goals-per-game with nine clean sheets while allowing 1.20 big chances per game and 6.80 shots inside the box per game. Those numbers all compare favorably versus sixteen league matches without Boly where they are allowing 1.60 goals-per-game with just one clean sheet while allowing 1.62 big chances per match and 6.87 shots inside the box per game. Overall, Wolverhampton leads the EPL by allowing only 24 big chances all season. The Wolves are a balanced team — they are also 4th in the league with 52 big chances on offense. These strong fundamentals help explain why they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-four of their thirty-one league matches. They are unbeaten in their last four EPL matches on the road with three victories. They are 4th in the league with 24 points on the road — and they rank 3rd in expected points (xPTS) when playing away from home. With Wolverhampton tied with Manchester United for 5th place in the EPL table, they are very motivated to keep playing well to qualify for one of the four spots for next fall’s Champions League (with Man City’s eligibility still up in the air). Aston Villa is tied for second-to-last in the EPL table having gone winless in their last seven matches with five losses. They have only scored twice in their three matches since the return to play this month. On paper, it appears as if the Villans have significantly improved their play on defense with manager Dean Smith using the stoppage of play to adjust his defensive tactics. Smith had to do something — his team had allowed the most shots inside the box through twenty-nine game weeks since the EPL starting measuring that data. But the Villans have also benefited from a relatively weak returning schedule facing a Magpies team this week that is second-to-last in scoring in the EPL along with a rusty Chelsea side, and an undermanned Sheffield United group that leans heavily on their defensive play. Aston Villa remains desperate for points — so they will play more aggressively if and when they fall behind in this match. The Villans have not registered a clean sheet in eleven straight matches. They are winless in their last nineteen matches in English top-flight in the top-six of the standings in the time of the match — and they have lost seventeen of these contests including their last thirteen.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 10th. With seven days off before their next contest, Nuno can comfortably play his best starting XI. Don’t get worried if the Wolves lack a lead at halftime as they have outscored their opponents in the second half by a whopping 32-10 margin. And they have allowed only one goal in the EPL this season after taking a one-goal lead. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-26-20 |
Real Valladolid v. Sevilla -1 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-146 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Sevilla (201874) minus the goal-line versus Valladolid (201873). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D11-L6) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-2 draw with Villarreal on Monday. Real Valladolid (W7-D13-L11) also comes off gaining a point in the La Liga table with their 1-1 draw at home to Getafe on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla entered Matchweek 32 in the Spanish top-flight four points above the 5th place team with the top four teams in the league qualifying for next year’s Championship League. Manager Julen Lopetegui rested a handful of his key players in that match to begin the week including leading scorer Lucas Ocampos — so Los Nervionenses should be primed for a big effort in this match. Sevilla is a very consistent team that has scored in twenty-two straight matches in La Liga play. They also have generated the fourth most clean sheets in the league this year. They have allowed only three goals in their four matches since the return to action — and they have only allowed one opponent to produce an expected goal rate of over 1.0 xG in those four contests. Los Nervionsenses have also generated 5.28 expected goals on offense since the return to play which is the 5th most of all the teams in La Liga. This quality play on both sides of the pitch is one of the reasons why Sevilla has only lost two matches in their last twelve league contests. They stay at home at Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where they are W7-D6-L2 this season. Real Valladolid has won just once in their last six contests in league play. They have only scored three goals in their four matches since the return to action this month. This Pucela team is last in La Liga in creating scoring chances. Motivation may be an issue for this team as they rank 15th in the standings while being 8 points clear of the relegation zone. But the deeper metrics suggest that Real Valladolid are overachieving as their expected points (xPTS) drops them to second-to-last in the league. Now this team goes back on the road where they are tied for 9th place in points — but their xPTS drops to just 17th in the league when playing away from home. This team is undermanned in this match with defenseman Pedro Porro and forward Sandro Ramirez dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Sevilla won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 1-0 score. Look for Los Nervionenses to register another victory against Real Valladolid who does not have much to play for at this point of the season. 10* La Liga Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Sevilla (201874) minus the goal-line versus Valladolid (201873). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-20 |
Mallorca v. Real Madrid -2 |
|
0-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (201830) minus the goal-line versus Mallorca (201829). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W19-D8-L3) has won all three of their matches since the return to action earlier this month with their 2-1 win at Real Sociedad on Sunday. Mallorca (W7-D5-L18) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at home over Leganes on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos now control their destiny to win the La Liga championship with Barcelona suffering a draw this month. Real Madrid is three points behind Barca entering this match but control the potential tie-breaker between these two teams if both win out courtesy of their victory in the latest rendition of El Classico earlier this year before the stoppage of play. Real Madrid has scored eight goals in their three matches this month while conceding just twice. They return home where they are W11-D4-L0 will scoring 33 goals and conceding just 10 times. Mallorca has scored just once in their three matches this month while allowing six goals in what has included two losses. They were fortunate to escape with a draw on Friday considering that they lost the expected goals battle to Leganes by a 1.32-0.38 xG margin. The Balearic Islanders have been much better at home where they are now W6-D3-L7 — but now they go back on the road where they are just W1-D2-L11. Those 5 points away from home are the fewest in La Liga — and they are also last in the league in expected points on the road.
FINAL TAKE: A blowout is likely for Real Madrid. Six of their last ten victories have been by at least two goals. And there is little chance that manager Zinedine Zidane’s side will take Mallorca lightly considering that one of three losses this season was on the road at Estadi de Sonmoix. 20* La Liga Mallorca-Real Madrid beIN Sports Special with Real Madrid (201830) minus the goal-line versus Mallorca (201829). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-20 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.75 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200110) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200109). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W11-D13-L6) returned the pitch on Saturday with their 2-0 win at West Ham. Bournemouth (W7-D6-L17) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is in serious trouble to be one of the three relegated teams as they are currently tied for that spot in the EPL table with just 27 points. Manager Eddie Howe’s team lacked much ambition in the return to action on Saturday as they maned just 0.55 expected goals in their shutout loss to the Eagles. Over their last five matches, the Cherries have lost four of these contests with one draw while scoring just four times. But the defense has been even worse for Bournemouth as they have allowed at least two goals in each of those four matches while allowing 11 goals overall. Furthermore, in their last nineteen matches in the EPL, the Cherries are allowing 1.93 expected goals (xGA). They have not earned a clean sheet in league play in their last thirteen matches while conceding 25 goals during that span. Defense has usually been an issue under Howe whose attacking frenetic style leaves his team vulnerable. Bournemouth has stayed afloat in the EPL by scoring plenty of goals — which is why their scoring slump now is a significant cause for concern. They are averaging just 1.17 expected goals (xG) in their last nineteen EPL matches. Now they go back on the road where they have lost twenty-four of their last thirty-four matches in EPL play since the start of last season. Forward Joshua King did not look mentally prepared to return to play in that match — and he is now questionable with a knock for this match. Wolverhampton is undefeated in their last six matches with three victories and five clean sheets in that span. The Wolves have plenty to play for being tied with Manchester United for 5th place in the EPL table. They have registered three straight clean sheets when playing at home where they are now allowing only 1.06 xGA per match. Wolverhampton leads the EPL by allowing just 24 big chances on defense this season. They also feast against the bottom teams in the league as they have won five of their six opportunities to host a team in the lower half of the league while scoring 16 times and allowing just four goals.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture on the road back on November 23rd by a 2-1 score. With Bournemouth looking mentally checked out this season, look for the Wolves to dominate this match. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200110) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-20 |
Sheffield United v. Manchester United -1 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200122) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200121). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W12-D10-L8) returned to the pitch last Friday with their 1-1 draw at Tottenham. Sheffield United (W11-D11-L8) looks to bounce back from a 3-0 loss at Newcastle United.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is unbeaten in their last twelve matches with eight victories. The team has been jumpstarted with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes who has scored nine teams across all competitions with the Red Devils not losing a match since he put on the red jersey for this franchise. Man United should have earned the 3 points with a win over the Spurs last Friday as they won the expected goals battle by a 1.69-0.47 xG margin. The Red Devils have been ravaged by injuries this season but they are as healthy as they have been al season with both Marcus Rashford and now Paul Pogba back on the pitch. Pogba came off the bench on Friday and the team looked electric on offense with him joining Fernandes in the middle of the field. Man United returns home to Old Trafford where they are averaging 1.98 xG this season while holding their opponents to 1.14 xGA. The Red Devils have allowed only three goals in their five home matches against a non-Big Six side. Sheffield United looks to have lost all their mojo after being unbeaten in six straight matches before the stoppage of play. The Blades’ lack of depth of defense was exposed in that match with the Magpies after center back John Egan was called for a red card in the 50th minute of that match. They were already missing their other starting center back in Jack O’Connell — and Sheffield United then conceded three goals in a 23-minute stretch to get dominated in that match last Sunday. Egan is suspended for this match while O’Connell remains a doubt for this match. To compound matters, the Blades cannot play their star goaltender Dean Henderson since he is on loan from his parent club which is Man United. That leaves Sheffield United undermanned at their strength which is their defense. The Blades have not done much on offense either with just 12 combined shots in their two matches since the return along with a mere 0.80 combined expected goals in those games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture on November 24th. Man United has dominated Sheffield United when playing at home with seven straight victories where they have scored 17 times while allowing just two goals. 20* EPL Sheffield United-Man United NBC Sports Network Special with the Manchester United (200122) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-20 |
Everton -0.5 v. Norwich City |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Everton (20013) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (20014). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D8-L12) comes off an impressive nil-nil draw at home against Liverpool on Sunday. Norwich City (W5-D6-L19) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss to Southampton.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees will be looking to register their first victory in their last five matches in this contest. They deserved to defeat the inevitable EPL champions this season on Sunday as they won the expected goals battle by a 1.13-0.73 mark. This team has been much better under new manager Carlo Ancelotti who replaces Marco Silva in late December. The three-time Champions League winner as the skipper for Real Madrid and AC Milan has pushed the right buttons to get more out of the talent that exists on this roster. Since he took over, Everton has averaged 2.08 expected goals (xG) while allowing just 1.29 xGA which is 5th best in the EPL over that span. Perhaps Ancelotti’s biggest contribution has been to unleash the potential of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin who was the only player in the league to generate at least one big chance in eight straight matches before the stoppage of play. This team goes back on the road where they are averaging an impressive 2.11 xG in their last five matches. Norwich City has lost five of its last seven matches. Even worse for this team seemingly destined for relegation as they have managed only 8 points in their last ten matches with just 11.2 expected goals in this matches while allowing 18.81 expected goals during that span. The Canaries have been shut out in five of their last six matches while scoring just one goal in those games. Norwich City hosts this match where they are allowing 2.02 xGA per match. in their twenty-one matches against teams outside the Big Six, they have lost thirteen of these matches while conceding 32 times and scoring just 13 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will be motivated to avenge a 2-0 loss at home to the Canaries back on November 23rd. That match was about a month before Ancelotti replaced Silva. Look for the Toffees who are in much better form to overwhelm a Norwich City in the last place and likely headed back to the English Champions League in the fall. 20* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Everton (20013) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (20014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-20 |
Granada +0.5 v. Leganes |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Granada CF (201801) plus the goal-line versus Leganes (201802). THE SITUATION: Granada CF (W12-D6-L12) suffered their first loss in their last seven matches with their 1-0 loss at home to Real Villarreal on Friday. Leganes (W5-D9-L16) comes off a 1-1 draw at Mallorca on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE GRANADA CF PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: At first glance, Leganes appears to be the sharp play in this contest. With them tied for last place in the La Liga standings with just 24 goals, they are desperate for the three points a victory would produce in this contest with them currently five points behind safety from relegation. Los Pepineros are 14th in the table in expected points (xPTS) with 35.78 — so the deeper metrics think this team should be safe from demotion to the second tier Spanish professional league in the fall. But the team on the pitch this afternoon will not have three of the key players that helped produce those encouraging analytics. The Cucumber Growers lost two of their best forwards in the winter transfer period with Youssef En-Nesyri being sold to Sevilla and Martin Braithwaite transferring to Barcelona. Those two players accounted for almost half the team’s goals when they departed. Argentinian Alexander Szymanowski slid into the attacking role with their departures — but he will be out for this match with an injury. As it is, Leganes is last in the La Liga with just 23 goals scored — and they are second-to-last in expected goals (xG) scored. Their 14 goals at home are also second-to-last in the league along with their xG at home of just 15.82 which is also 19th. The Cucumber Growers have scored just five goals in their last eight matches — and they have scored only seven goals in the last eleven games. Furthermore, they have scored only two goals in their three matches since the return to play while conceding five times. They have only won once in their last eight matches. Granada is W1-D1-L1 in their three matches since the return to play. They are dealing with a host of injuries themselves — but they remain motivated to get a victory in this match with them being just five points out of 7th place and the final qualifying spot for next year’s Europa League. El Grana can struggle against the top teams in the league — but they do feast on the bottom teams especially when playing on the road. Granada has only generated one point in their eight matches on the road against one of the top-ten teams in La Liga. However, they have produced 12 points in seven matches against teams in the bottom half of the league when playing on the road. And while they have allowed the 5th most goals when playing on the road, the expected goals they should have allowed in those road matches are 6th best in La Liga.
FINAL TAKE: Granada won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 1-0 score back on September 28th. Granada has a very good chance to win this match — and a draw is likely their worst result against an opponent that lacks reliable scoring threats. 10* La Liga Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Granada CF (201801) plus the goal-line versus Leganes (201802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-20 |
Liverpool v. Everton +1 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D7-L12) is winless in their last three matches after suffering an embarrassing 4-0 loss at Chelsea in their last match back on March 8th. Liverpool (W27-D1-L1) returns to the pitch after a 2-1 win over Bournemouth back on March 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: I question the motivation of this Liverpool team returning from the three-month hiatus with little to play for. The Reds are a commanding 22 points up in 1st place in the EPL table so their championship is all but guaranteed. Liverpool was also eliminated already in the Champions League in a loss in the Round of 16 to Real Madrid so manager Jurgen Klopp does not have any expectations for his squad to prepare for an August run to defend their European championship. It has been a magical twelve or so months for the Reds — but it is probably impossible for them to continue to play at the incredible level that they had enjoyed. While they have 82 points in the EPL this season, the deeper metrics suggest that they should have only earned 59.61 expected points (xPTS) which is a dramatic dropoff (and below Manchester City’s xPTS mark). They have outscored their opponents by +45 goals this year in league play — but their expected goals differential drops to +32.34 (xGD). Cracks in their armor were showing before the stoppage in play. After the disappointing loss to Real Madrid, Liverpool then averaged just 1.55 expected goals (xG) in their final three EPL matches while allowing 1.44 expected goals (xGA) which is far below their scorching 2.16 xG - 1.12 xGA clip for the season. From the vantage point of my “eye test”, the Reds have lost some of their emotional intensity which resulted in less vigor in their effort on defense. Now Liverpool goes on the road where while they are W12-D1-L1 in EPL play for 37 points, their expected points on the road fall to just 26.00. Everton has been underachieving relatively to the deeper metrics all season. While they are in 13th place in the EPL table, their expected points are 6th best in the league. Those numbers suggest that the Toffees have been the second unluckiest team in the league. They had registered at least 2.0 expected goals per match in seven straight contests before their underwhelming effort at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. Everton has played much better since manager Carlo Ancelotti was appointed to replace Marco Silva in late December. Ancelotti is the real deal with three Champions League titles as the manager of AC Milan and then Real Madrid. Ancelotti is considered a tactical genius with an ability to adapt his schemes to his talent along with the weaknesses of his opposition. The Toffees are W5-D3-L3 since Ancelotti took over which has improved the W8-D2-L9 clip they had under Silva. Over their last five matches, Everton led the EPL in big chances created on offense along with being second in total goals scored and third in expected goals. The Toffees were also second in expected goals allowed so they have played well on both ends of the pitch. Ancelotti has unlocked the potential of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin who was the only player in EPL to record at least one big chance in eight straight match weeks. Overall, Everton is 2nd in the EPL since Ancelotti took over by averaging 2.17 xG — and they are 6th in the league on defense with a 1.37 xGA mark. This is a very underrated side. They host this match at Goodison Park where they are W1-D3-L1 in their five matches against a traditional big six opponent well scoring 6 goals and allowing just 6 goals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played to a draw in six of their last seven Merseyside Derby’s at Everton. The Toffees will be very motivated to pull the upset as they lost the reverse fixture to Liverpool by a 5-2 score on December 4th before then losing to the Reds on January 11th by a 1-0 score in FA Cup play against a roster filled mostly of younger players. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-TV Match of the Year with Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-20 |
Crystal Palace v. AFC Bournemouth |
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2-0 |
Loss |
-126 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
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At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bournemouth (200022) with the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200021). THE SITUATION: Bournemouth (W7-D6-L16) return to the pitch this afternoon with their last match being a 2-1 loss at Liverpool back on March 7th. Crystal Palace (W10-D9-L10) last played on March 7th when they defeated Watford by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE BOURNEMOUTH WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Cherries were slumping when play stopped as they had lost thirteen of their last eighteen league matches while allowing their opponents to register 1.99 expected goals per game. Injuries did not help their situation then — so three months to get healthy along with the extended time for manager Eddie Howe to rethink things on defense can only help. Remember that Bournemouth has become a staple in the English top-flight with this being their fifth straight season in the EPL. They have only lost five of their last fourteen league matches at home in Vitality Stadium. They also feast on the lesser competition of the league when playing at home — they have generated 10 points in their last six matches at home against the bottom-ten teams from the table. Crystal Palace may be lacking motivation in the return to action with them stuck in the middle of the table. The Eagles are 12 points safe from relegation in 11th place — but they are also 7 points behind 6th place with both Arsenal and Tottenham standing in their way of potential qualification for the Europa League next fall. The deeper metrics suggest that Crystal Palace has been fortunate to be in the position they are in as they rank just 15th in the EPL in expected points (xPTS). While they are allowing just 1.10 Goals-Per-Game (6th in the EPL), they have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.53 which is just 10th in the league. The Eagles are being outscored by -6 net goals this season but their net expected goal differential (xGD) is -16.08. They have only won four of their fourteen matches on the road while being saddled with a 2.01 xGA mark. In their last five road games, they have a combined 11.67 xGA which has resulted in a net expected goal margin of -5.17 xGD.
FINAL TAKE: Crystal Palace has won their last two matches against Bournemouth after their 1-0 win in the reverse EPL fixture on December 3rd. But those two matches were at Selhurst Park. The Cherries host this match with a sense of urgency with a difficult stretch of matches on deck with road games at Wolverhampton, Manchester United, and Manchester City along with home matches against Tottenham, Leicester City, and Everton. 20* EPL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Bournemouth (200022) with the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200021). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.25 v. West Ham United |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
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At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W10-D13-L6) was unbeaten in their last five English Premier League matches before the stoppage of play with their 0-0 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion on March 7th. West Ham United (W7-D6-L16) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Arsenal back on March 7th in their last match.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves were unbeaten in their last five games in the English Premier League while posting clean sheets in four of those contests. They are also still alive for the Europa League championship as their last match before the break-in play was a 1-1 draw at Olympiakos Piraeus in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches. Depth is an issue for this West Midlands team so the three-month break offers them an advantage as they are rested for this final run of matches. Wolverhampton is currently in 7th place in the EPL table while remaining alive to qualify for one of the four available Champions League slots. The deeper metrics are bullish on the Wolves as they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-two of their twenty-nine matches in the EPL this season. Wolverhampton ranks 5th in the league in expected points (xPTS). Over their last eight matches, the Wolves were posting an expected goals (xG) scoring mark of 2.08 while holding their opponents to just 0.94 expected goals (xGA) — and they held the advantage in this metric after matches with top-level teams Manchester United, Tottenham, and even 1st place Liverpool during that span. Now this team goes on the road where they rank 3rd in the EPL in xPTS. West Ham was just W1-D2-L6 in their last nine matches before the stoppage of play. Defense has been a major weakness for this team as they rank 2nd-to-last in the league by allowing 2.05 expected goals per match. The return of David Moyes as their manager at the end of December did not rectify this problem. The Hammers have allowed the second-most Big Chances for their opponents along with the second most shots inside the box since Moyes took over the reins of this team for the second time after he was skipper for the team in 2017-18. West Ham has generated only 8 points in their ten matches under Moyes when allowing 1.94 expected goals per match which is the 4th worst mark in the league during the span. West Ham hosts this match without fans in London Stadium where they are suffering with an expected goal differential of -5.61.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham has lost their last three matches against Wolverhampton after their 2-0 loss at Molineaux on December 4th. Look for the Wolves to outclass the Hammers who are struggling in 17th place in the EPL table. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-20 |
Barcelona FC v. Sevilla +0.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
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At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D9-L6) remained unbeaten in their last six matches on Monday with their 1-1 draw at Levante. Barcelona (W20-D4-L5) has won seven of their last eight matches with their 2-0 victory over Leganes on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla suffered a hard-luck draw in that match on Monday as they scored an own goal in the 87th minute to forfeit their impending 3 points with the victory. They have yet to see an opposing player score against them in their two matches since the return to play. The Andalusians are in 3rd place in the La Liga table as they look to qualify for one of the four slots in the Champions League. Sevilla already had a strong attacking team but they fortified their stable of forwards in the winter transfer period by signing the 23-year old Youssef En-Nesryi along with acquiring Suso on loan from AC Milan. They join their summer transfer in Lucas Ocampos who is their leading scorer this season. Over their last ten matches, the Andalusians have lost now twice while posting 1.64 expected goals (xG) and allowing just 1.17 expected goals (xGA). They host this match where they are unbeaten since December while losing only two of their fourteen matches. They have an impressive +0.97 net expected goal differential when playing at home. And while some bettors may look to the fact that they have only produced 15 points in their last eight home matches, they have posted an impressive +1.03 net expected goal differential in those matches which suggests they were the victim of some unfortunate circumstances. Barcelona has won eight of their ten matches since manager Quique Setien took over the team in January. But both of their losses under Setien have taken place on the road against Real Madrid and Valencia. The reigning La Liga champions have not been as dominant when playing on the road as they are averaging just 1.5 points per road match which is their lowest mark in a decade — and their expected 1.64 points per match on the road indicates they have not been particularly unlucky with those results. The Catalonians have just a +3 net goal differential when playing on the road — and the expected goals metric concurs with only that slight edge as they are just +0.30 net expected goal differential per match when playing on the road. In their victory over Leganes on Tuesday, they only generated 0.88 non-penalty kick expected goals which is not very impressive. Superstar Lionel Messi did score the final goal in that match via a penalty kick. Yet they are averaging 2.34 expected goals per game at home — and now they go back on the road where they are scoring just 1.48 expected goals per match. Barca has feasted on the lesser teams in the league like the last place Leganes this season — they have only 9 points in their last seven matches against teams in the top half of the table.
FINAL TAKE: Barcelona did defeat Sevilla in the reverse fixture between these two teams on October 6th in their 4-0 victory at home at Camp Nou. But the underlying metrics suggest that the match was much closer than expected as Sevilla won the expected goals battle by a 3.27 to 2.46 mark. The Andalusians have a good chance to pull the upset on this Barcelona team that has been vulnerable on the road. A draw may be likely which makes getting the +0.5 goal very valuable. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Match of the Year with the Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-20 |
Manchester United v. Tottenham Hotspur |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
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At 3:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W12-D9-L8) returns to the pitch for the first time since they defeated LASK on the road by a 5-0 score in Europa League action on March 12th. Tottenham (W11-D8-L10) last played in the second leg of the Round of 16 of the Champions League where they were eliminated by RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score on March 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Red Devils had found their form under manager Gunnar Solskjaer as they had not been beaten in their last eleven matches across all competitions while scoring 29 goals over that span and conceding goals just twice. Man United was not simply feasting against weaker competition either as four of those eight victories came against teams currently residing in the top-six spots in the EPL table including Manchester City who they defeated in their last EPL match on March 8th by a 2-0 score. That was no fluke either against two-time defending EPL champions (and the best statistical team this year in the EPL according to the expected goals metric) — they won the xG battle by a 1.32-0.75 margin in that contest. The winter signing of midfielder Bruno Fernandes jumpstarted this team. The Portuguese star from Sporting Lisbon brought this team a risk-taking play-maker that they have been missing. Since Gameweek 25, the Red Devils are second in the EPL in shots on target. Now this team takes the pitch again healthy with forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba back from injuries that have sidelined both for much of the season. Rashford is the team’s best scorer — and he should thrive with a new partner in Fernandes on the pitch. Pogba is the real wildcard here as the enigmatic French star has not contributed much over the last two seasons. But do not underestimate Pogba’s talent — he was a key component in France’s World Cup victory in 2018 and tends to shine when surrounded with other elite players. Despite not being healthy all season, Man United sports an impressive W6-D4-L1 mark in their eleven matches against the top-eight teams in the EPL table while allowing just nine goals with five clean sheets. Their lone loss was at Liverpool who are running away with the EPL title. Now at full strength, the Red Devils could become very, very good for the rest of this unique season. Tottenham also gets healthy again with Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min, Moussa Sissoko, Steven Bergwijn, and Tangy Ndombele all recovered from the injuries they were dealing with before the stoppage in March. But the Spurs will be without one of their key pieces in the midfield with Dele Alli suspended for this match. Kane is a bit of a mystery for me as I worry that the 26-year old may be wearing down after years of extended service for this franchise along with the English national team. But the problems for this Tottenham side that are winless in their last six matches are more endemic than just some ill-timed midseason knocks. Manager Maurice Pochettino took this team to the Finals of the Champions League to conclude last season (where they lost to Liverpool) — but he returned for his sixth season with the franchise with a group of players that had lost interest in his leadership. The ensuing slow start prompted his firing in mid-November where he was replaced by the enigmatic Jose Mourinho. One of the tactical changes that Mourinho deployed was to abandon the pressing style that Pochettino favored that was no longer succeeding for counter-attacking tactics. Unfortunately for the Spurs, the results have been dreadful on the defensive side of the pitch for this team. In the seventeen matches under Mourinho, Tottenham have 29 expected goals allowed mark which is 5th worst in the EPL over that span — and their -2.6 expected goal differential in those matches in 12th in the league. Over their last ten matches, the Spurs averaging an xGA mark of 2.08 while twice allowing their opponents to cross the 3.0 expected goals mark. In their last EPL match against Burnley, they allowed a team not known for their attacking prowess to pepper them with 21 shots in eight on target in what concluded in a 1-1 draw on March 7th. Seeing the return of these talented offensive players will help — but the talent and cohesion of the roster of defensive backs remains a question. Against the traditional Big Six EPL teams this season, Tottenham is just W1-D2-L5 while conceding 13 times and scoring only 9 goals.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at Manchester United back on December 4th. Tottenham has generated 26 of their 41 points in the EPL at home this season in their new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — but the lack of fans in this contest will detract from their home-field advantage in this facility. The Spurs have lost two of their three opportunities to host a Big Six side this season. 25* EPL Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-20 |
Southampton v. Norwich City |
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3-0 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Southampton (200033) with the goal-line versus Norwich City (200034). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W10-D4-L15) returns to the pitch after a 1-0 loss at home to Newcastle United on March 7th. Norwich City (W5-D6-L18) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United on March 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints started W1-D6-L8 in their first fifteen matches last year which prompted them to fire manager Mark Hughes. Former RB Leipzig manager Ralph Hasenhuttl took over the team and oversaw a W8-D6-L9 finish to the season to barely stave off relegation with Saints finishing in 16th place. The key to Hasenhuttl’s success was installing a high-press scheme that significantly increased the team’s aggressiveness. But Southampton struggled to start this season — and they hit rock bottom in the fall in a humiliating 9-0 loss to Leicester City. Hasenhuttl did not back down on his pressing approach but he did change formations to add a fourth defender for his backline after the international break offered him to reassess the team’s tactics. The Saints responded by going on a W7-D2-L3 run over their next twelve matches which catapulted them into the middle of the table. Southampton was slumping before play stopped in March — but the hiatus has allowed Hasenhuttl to once again tweak with his game management. The Saints press has been a success as they rank 3rd in the EPL behind Liverpool and Man City in passes allowed before a defensive action on their part. The deeper metrics are bullish on this team — while they are 14th in the table with 34 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 41.09 is 8th best in the EPL. Southampton has also been a good road team this season — they have won six of their fourteen matches with two draws with those 20 points being tied for 6th best in the league. Norwich City has lost three of their last four EPL matches — and they have been shut out in four of their last five contests. The Canaries lack finishers with only forward Teemu Pukki presenting a reliable scoring threat. They are converting a mere 7.5% of their 335 shots attempts with those resulting 25 goals being tied for the fewest in the EPL. But defense may be the bigger concern for this team with the 52 goals they have allowed this season being tied for the second-most in the league. The Canaries are giving up too many high-quality chances inside the 6-foot box — and this is in part because they are allowing the 4th most passing inside the 20-yard box.
FINAL TAKE: Norwich City will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at Southampton back on December 4th. The Canaries will miss the emotional support of their home fans with this match being played in an empty stadium — 71% of their 21 points this season have been generated at home at Carrow Road. And because Norwich City is in last place, they need to play aggressively with the hopes of securing the 3 points with the victory. 10* EPL Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Southampton (200033) with the goal-line versus Norwich City (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-18-20 |
Valencia v. Real Madrid -1.25 |
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0-3 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
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At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Real Madrid (201878) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201877). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W17-D8-L3) returned to the pitch last Sunday with a 3-1 victory at home over Eibar. Valencia (W11-D10-L7) comes off a 1-1 draw at home against Levante last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos looked dominant in that match on Sunday as they scored three quick goals in the first 37 minutes of that contest to cruise to their victory. Injuries have slowed this team down but manager Zinedine Zidane had the services of Eden Hazard again for that contest after the Belgium striker had been out with an injury for much of the season. Hazard did not score but he did assist on one of the goals. Real Madrid is second in the league to Barcelona — but they lead La Liga in both expected goals (xG) and the fewest expected goals allowed (xGA). They are allowing just 0.71 goals per 90 minutes in league play which is the best mark of all the four major professional leagues that have returned to play since the stoppages in March. They also lead La Liga with an expected goal differential (xGD) of +28.96 on the season. They stay at home where they will be playing the remaining of their matches at their training facility Estadio Alfredo di Stefano. While the 6000 seat facility is not as intimidating as their 80,000 Santiago Bernabeu, Los Blancos certainly retain a familiarity edge when playing in this arena. Real Madrid is W10-D4-L0 at home in league play where they have scored at least two goals in ten matches and where they have registered clean sheets in five contests. Half of their home victories have been by at least two goals. Valencia may be the most overvalued side in La Liga. They are the only team in the top-half of the table with a net goal differential — and they have a -8.42 net expected goal differential on the season. While they began the match week in 8th place with 43 points in the table, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 34.83 which is 12th in the league. Los Che average the second fewest chances on offense in the league with under 9 shot attempts per match — and they are also allowing more than 15 shots per game by their opponents. They have managed only 3.87 expected goals combined over their last four contests for a meager 0.97 xG per match average. Their defense is undermanned with Ezequiel Garay, Gabriel Paulista, and Cristiano Piccini all dealing with injuries. They go back on the road where they are W3-D3-L7 but with an expected goal differential (xGD) of -11.03. They are winless in their last six matches on the road in league play with a -6.09 xGD — and they are averaging a mere 0.57 xG in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid won the last meeting between these two teams back on January 8th with their 3-1 victory on the road in Super Cup play. But these two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in league play on December 15th so Los Blanchos are not likely going to take this team lightly. 20* La Liga Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Real Madrid (201878) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201877). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-20 |
Sheffield United v. Aston Villa |
Top |
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). THE SITUATION: Sheffield United (W11-D10-L7) returns to the pitch for the first time since March 7th when they defeated Norwich City at home by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D4-L17) has lost five games in a row across all competitions after their 4-0 loss at Leicester City back on March 9th.
REASONS TO TAKE SHEFFIELD UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Blades were unbeaten in their last six matches before the stoppage in play. They had only lost to the top two teams in the league in Liverpool and Manchester City in their last thirteen matches on the road in league play. Sheffield United’s defensive-first approach has been very successful against the non-power teams in the English Premier League. In their nineteen matches against the traditional non-Power Six, the Blades are W10-D6-L3. They are also unbeaten in their eighth matches on the road in the EPL against non-Big Six sides with four victories and four draws. They have won seven of their last nine matches with two draws being their lone blemishes against non-Big Six sides while only allowing five goals in these contests. Aston Villa has allowed 12.24 expected goals in their last four league matches to compound to their defensive woes this season. The Villans are last in the EPL in both goals allowed and expected goals allowed. The metrics are not encouraging with this team at all either as they rank last in the league with an expected goal differential of -27.8 xGD. Aston Villa returns to action having allowed the most shots inside the box through the first twenty-nine game weeks since that metric started being measured. They have not registered a clean sheet in nine straight games. The Villans also do not pressure the opposing goalkeeper enough as they have the fourth feast big chances in the EPL while ranking last in both big chances and expected goals scored over their last ten matches. Aston Villa is getting their talented midfielder John McGinn back for this match after he suffered an injury in the fall — but his game fitness for this match is in question after the long layoff.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-0 score back in December. Aston Villa will struggle to score against the compact Blades defense — but they will likely allow at least one goal as their expected goals allowed of 2.45 xGA is -0.32 xGA worse than the next most porous defensive team in the EPL. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-20 |
Bayern Munich -2 v. SV Werder Bremen |
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1-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (202453) minus the goal-line versus Werder Bremen (202454). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W23-D4-L4) has won fourteen straight matches across all competitions after their 2-1 win at home against Borussia Monchengladbach on Saturday. Werder Bremen (W7-D7-L17) has won three of their last six matches with their 5-1 win over Paderborn on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Werder Bremen has played much better since the return to play as they desperately try to salvage their season by climbing out of the relegation zone. This is a proud organization that is the longest-running franchise in the Bundesliga going back to 1981-82. But it is because of these ambitions which might compel the River Islanders to quickly but bait on this game if the Bavarians take a lead so they can rest their key players for this weekend’s match where they have a much better chance to taking three points with the win. Werder Bremen still allowed 2.05 expected goals to a Paderborn team that is in the basement in the Bundesliga. The Green-and-Whites stay at home at Weserstadion where they are tied for last place in points generated. They have not won at home scene September 1st which accounts for thirteen straight matches. Bayern Munich will be primed to win this match as the three points would clinch their eighth straight Bundesliga title. They defeated the 5th place team in the league in Borussia Monchengladbach despite being without Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller who were suspended for that match after receiving their fifth yellow cards the previous week. Lewandowski leads the Bundesliga with 30 goals while Muller has added seven goals with 20 assists.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich dominates lesser competition — they have won all seven of their matches against the bottom-four teams in the league while scoring 30 goals and allowing just seven goals. Four of those victories were by at least four goals including a 6-1 victory over Werder Bremen in the reverse fixture back on December 14th. Look for the Bavarians to blowout a River Islanders team that will likely look to save their energy for the weekend. 10* Bundesliga Bayern Munich-Werder Bremen FS2-TV Special with the Bayern Munich (202453) minus the goal-line versus Werder Bremen (202454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-20 |
VfL Wolfsburg +0.5 v. Borussia Monchengladbach |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing VfL Wolfsburg (202425) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202426). THE SITUATION: VfL Wolfsburg (W12-D10-L9) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw at home to Freiburg on Saturday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L9) has lost two straight matches after their 2-1 loss at Bayern Munich last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE VFL WOLFSBURG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Wolfsburg has been solid since the return to action last month with their W3-D1-L2 mark in those six contests. Die Wolfe finds themselves in 6th place in the Bundesliga table while being 4 points safe to qualify for next fall’s Europa League. The metrics suggest they have underachieved this season as their expected points (xPTS) from the expected goals projections places them 5th best in the league. They are led by the Danish superstar Wout Weghost who scored twice on Saturday to raise his goals mark to 18 on the season across all competitions. Wolfsburg has registered at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in four straight matches. Now they go on the road where they have won three straight matches with an expected goal differential (xGD) of +3.42 in those games. Die Wolfe defeated 4th place Beyer Leverkusen on the road back on May 25th by a dominant 4-1 score. Wolfsburg is 4th in the Bundesliga in xPTS while ranking in the top-four on the road in both xG and xGA. Borussia Monchengladbach has struggled since the return with just a W2-D2-L2 mark while scoring just 10 goals while allowing 9 goals. The scoring prowess for Die Fohlen has slowed as of late as they have scored only one goal in their last two matches. Furthermore, Borussia Monchengladbach has scored only five combined goals in their last four matches — and they have scored more than one goal in just one of their last five games. They were without forward Alassane Plea over the weekend as he was suspended for that match against Bayern Munich. But while he will return, the Foals are undermanned up top still with Breel Embolo dealing with a calf injury that kept him from starting on Saturday and with Marcus Thuram dealing with an injury that had him limp off the field in that game against the Bavarians. Borussia Monchengladbach hosts this match where they rank tied for 6th in the league with 20 goals allowed — but their xGA at home drops to 11th in the Bundesliga with a 27.48 mark.
FINAL TAKE: Wolfsburg won the reverse fixture at home by a 4-1 score back on December 15th. Borussia Monchengladbach is not playing as well since the return from the stoppage of play. They also appear to be feeling the pressure to finish in the top four spots in the standings to secure one of the four Champions League qualifications. Wolfsburg can pull the upset in this match — but they would be happy with a very attainable draw. 25* Bundesliga Tuesday FS2-TV Match of the Year with VfL Wolfsburg (202425) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202426). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-20 |
Granada +0.5 v. Betis |
|
2-2 |
Win
|
109 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Granada CF (201845) plus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201846). THE SITUATION: Granada CF (W12-D5-L11) remained unbeaten in their last five La Liga matches with their 2-1 win at home against Getafe last Friday. Real Betis (W8-D9-L11) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss at Sevilla last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE GRANADA CF PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It was a very nice performance for Los Nazaries as they rallied from a 1-0 deficit against the 5th place team in La Liga to score twice in the last 20 minutes to steal the victory. Granada dominated the performance according to the deeper metrics as they registered 2.06 expected goals (xG) while holding Getafe to just 0.74 xG. Los Nazaries is now in 8th place in the Spanish top-flight table just 2 points behind the final spot to qualify for the Europa League next fall. Now this team goes back on the road where they have surrendered 24 goals this season which is tied for the 5th most in the league. Granada has been pretty unfortunate in that regard as they rank 7th best in the league with just 19.13 expected goals allowed. While Los Nazaries is tied for 11th place with 12 points on the road, they rise to 7th place with 16.64 projected points based on expected points (xPTS). Granada struggles against the top-half of the La Liga table with just 1 point in eight matches while being outscored by a 19 to 7 margin. But Los Nazaries has feasted on the bottom half of the table on the road with 11 points in these six matches with an xG differential of +0.90. Real Betis is in no man's land in the standings in 13th place with 33 points which are 8 points more than the relegation zone. The motivation of this team is in question with them having little chance to qualify for the Europa League. A lackluster effort is an ominous sign for a team that already struggles on defense. Los Verdiblancos have allowed the third-most goals in the league — and they have second-to-last in goals allowed when playing at home. Real Betis managed to generate just 0.49 expected goals in their loss at Sevilla — and they are averaging just 1.14 expected goals over their last six matches. To compound matters, Los Verdiblancos will be without striker Juanmi Jimenez and midfielder Javi Garcia who are dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Granada is generating a healthy 1.68 expected goals over their last six contests. They won the reverse fixture between these two teams on October 27th by a 1-0 score. Granada has a good chance to pull the upset — and a draw has a high likelihood of occurring in this contest as well — making the visitors an intriguing proposition at +0.5 goals. 10* La Liga Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Granada CF (201845) plus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-20 |
Sevilla -1 v. Levante |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sevilla (201841) minus the goal-line versus Levante (201842). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D8-L6) remained unbeaten in their last five matches in La Liga play with their 2-0 victory over Real Betis on Thursday. Levante (W10-D4-L14) returned to action on Friday with a 1-1 draw at Valencia.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla allowed just one shot on net on Thursday to register that clean sheet. They dominated the expected goals (xG) with them punching out a 2.23 xG number while holding Real Betis to just 0.49 xG. I passed on this match with their leading scorer, Lucas Ocampo, in doubt for that match with an injury. Not only did he play, but he also scored in his fifth straight match to break the scoreless deadlock in the 56th minute on a penalty kick. Los Nervionenses have now scored in twenty straight league matches. This is a side that has lost three of their matches to Barcelona and Real Madrid — which leaves them with an absolutely dominant record against the rest of La Liga while making a strong case that they are the third-best team in the league. Levante has only won twice in their last ten matches while scoring a mere eight goals in that span. They return home where they have defeated Barcelona and Real Madrid — but they will not be playing on their home pitch at the Estadi Ciutat de Valencia. Instead, the Frogs will be playing their remaining home matches nearly 100 miles away at Estadio Camilo Cano in Lamana. Frankly, I could not determine the exact reason for the shift since the only articles I could find on the subject were written in Spanish — I suspect this is a COVID-19 related issue. But, most importantly for our purposes, Levante will have zero home-field edge since they are playing in an unfamiliar stadium with no fan support. The Frogs are also undermanned for this match with leading scorer Roger Marti suspended for this match after getting issued a red card last week. Defenseman Ivan Lopez is also out the rest of the season with a knee injury. Levante is a team that is last in the league with 51.80 expected goals allowed which are well beyond the 41 goals they have surrendered. And while they have given up only 12 goals as the home team, the Frogs’ expected goals allowed mark at home rises to a 20.68 mark. Levante’s good fortune on defense this season is much of the reason why they are tied for the 3rd worst expected points (xPTS) on the season despite being tied for 11th in the standings of the twenty-team La Liga.
FINAL TAKE: Sevilla won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on October 20th by a 1-0 score. With Los Nervionenses looking to secure one of the four top spots in the standings to qualify for next year’s Champions League while Levante is in no man's land in the middle of the table comfortably above the relegation zone but too many points away from challenging for the final qualifying spot for the Europa League, expect a more motivated Sevilla side to dominate. 20* La Liga Sevilla-Levante beIN Sports Special with the Sevilla (201841) minus the goal-line versus Levante (201842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Osasuna v. Real Sociedad -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-136 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Sociedad (201814) minus the goal-line versus Osasuna (201813). THE SITUATION: Real Sociedad (W14-D4-L9) returns to the pitch for the first time this afternoon since their 2-1 win at Eibar back on March 10th. Osasuna (W8-D10-L9) also comes off a victory when they last played in March with their 1-0 win over Espanyol.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL SOCIEDAD MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: La Real was playing very good football before the stoppage of play three months ago. They had won seven of their last eight matches with five of those contests being in La Liga action with the lone loss being to first-place Barcelona. Manager Imanol Alguacil’s side began the week tied for 4th place with a very real opportunity to qualify for the Champions League by finishing in the top four in the league. La Real is a young and vibrant team that plays an attractive form of football. The underlying metrics suggest they deserve the success they have achieved this season. Their net expected goal differential is 5th best in La Liga. They have registered clean sheets in seven of their fourteen victories in league play. They also have very tough to beat at home at Reale Arena where they have won seven straight contests including their last four against La Liga opponents. Real Sociedad is tied for second in the league with 27 goals scored — and they have generated at least 2.48 expected goals in five of their last six games at home. They also rank 2nd in the league in expected goals allowed in league play when playing at home. La Real has only surrendered three goals at home in their last seven home games. Additionally, they have won five of their last seven home games against teams in the bottom half of the La Liga table. Osasuna is in 11th place in the twenty-team league. Motivation may be an issue for this midlevel side that is 9 points clear of the relegation zone but 8 points outside qualifying for the Europa League. They had lost five of their last six contests before their win over Espanyol in their final game before COVID-19 forced cancellations. Los Rojillos had scored only nine goals in their nine matches played in 2020. They now go back on the road where they have won just once in their last five games. Osasuna plays much better on their home pitch where they have a +10.4 net expected goal differential — but in their thirteen road matches in La Liga they are burdened with a -8.6 net expected goal differential. Just 33% of their expected goals this season have occurred away from home. They have also allowed at least two goals in four of their last six games on the road. To make matters even worse, there may not be a La Liga team that returns to action so far from full strength as Los Rojillos. Ruben Garcia is suspended for this match from his actions back in March. Kike Barja, Fran Merida, Robert Ibanev, Facundo Roncaglia, and Chimy Avila are all dealing with injuries which place their status to play in doubt. Osasuna is not a team with the luxury of depth. They were promoted to La Liga this season after winning the Segunda Division last year.
FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad has won the last three meetings between these two teams as they followed up their 4-3 victory on league play in December with a 3-1 victory on January 29th in a Copa del Rey match. Osasuna has not defeated Real Sociedad in the Spanish top-flight competition since May of 2012. With Real Sociedad much closer to full strength and with much to play for still, expect them to earn the victory. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports-TV Match of the Year with Real Sociedad (201814) minus the goal-line versus Osasuna (201813). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen -1 v. Schalke 04 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-119 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202409) minus the goal-line versus FC Schalke 04 (202410). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W17-D5-L8) bounced-back from a 4-2 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Saturday with a 3-0 victory over FC Saarbrucken on Tuesday in the Semifinals of the DFB Pokal Cup. FC Schalke 04 (W9-D11-L10) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Schalke is probably playing the worst soccer in the Bundesliga right now — that was their first point on Sunday in their five matches in the return to action last month. They have only scored twice in those five games while conceding 11 times — and they have only won the expected goals advanced metrics battle once in those five contests. The Royal Blues are now winless in their last twelve matches while generating a mere 5 points over that span. Schalke was probably overachieving relative to the deeper shot numbers they were putting up earlier in the season — but the Regression Gods have finally paid a visit to this team. They have only scored four goals in their twelve matches since their last victory back on January 17th. Manager David Wagner did embrace a youth movement in the middle of the season — but the former Huddersfield manager in the English Premier League has been rumored to have lost the locker room. Schalke certainly fits the prototype of a team that has nothing to play for with them being now 5 points out of the last Europa League qualifying spot in the Bundesliga but being safe from relegation. The Royal Blues are simply not showing much ambition on offense. Their leading scorer is Suat Serder with seven goals which are not a good sign considering that he is a holding midfielder dedicated mostly to playing defense. Schalke has been held scoreless in eight of their last twelve matches. The Royal Blues have also not had a clean sheet since February. They return home to Veltins-Arena where they have the second-lowest expected goals total. And they will also be undermanned for this match with Serder along with Amine Harit, Omar Mascerell, and Guido Burostailer all out with injuries. Bayer Leverkusen has not been great in the return to action last month as they have lost two of their six matches across all competitions. But Die Werkself has still won six of their last eight league matches along with ten of their last fourteen games in the Bundesliga. They have scored in nineteen straight matches whole posting a healthy 21 goals in their last eight league contests. This team should remain very motivated to earn 3 points with the win considering that they are tied for 3rd place in the table — and they have a huge opportunity to pull ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach after they lost at Bayern Munich yesterday to ensure one of the top four spots to qualify for next year’s Champions League. Die Werkself have played better on the road this season with ten victories in their fifteen league matches away from home. They are tied for 2nd place in total points on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen will also get two key players back on the pitch for this contest. Their 20-year old superstar Kai Havertz has been dealing with an injury but he appears healthy enough to return for this match. He had scored five goals since the return to play last month. And the team’s star striker Kevin Holland is set to return for this first time since the stoppage of play. Die Werkself won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on December 7th. Expect a dominant win against a Schalke team that seems to have packed it in for the proverbial beach. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Bayer Leverkusen (202409) minus the goal-line versus FC Schalke 04 (202410). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-20 |
Eintracht Frankfurt v. Hertha Berlin -0.25 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
AAt 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202590) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (202589). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L12) looks to bounce back from their 1-0 loss at Borussia Dortmund last Saturday. Eintracht Frankfurt (W10-D5-L15) followed up a 2-0 loss last Saturday at home against Mainz with a 2-1 loss on Wednesday at Bayern Munich in the Semifinals of the DFB-Poval Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Old Lady had been unbeaten in their previous six matches since the return to play last month before suffering that loss to the second-place team in the Bundesliga. Yet Hertha Berlin remains W3-D1-L1 in their last five matches while outscoring those opponents by an 11-3 margin. They had averaged 2.0 expected goals in their first four matches back before getting stymied by Borussia Dortmund — and they had scored at least two goals in six straight contests before Saturday’s setback. Now they return home to Olympia Stadion where they have an expected goal mark of 4.85 in their previous two matches since the return to play last month. They will be catching a tired Eintracht Frankfurt side that will be playing their fourth match in eleven days. The Eagles did not fare well last Saturday when playing with just two days rest in-between after a midweek contest as they were dominated on their home pitch to FSV Mainz in that 2-0 loss as they managed only 0.44 expected goals while allowing 3.23 expected goals. In their last eight league matches, Eintracht Frankfurt has allowed their opponent to register at least 2.0 expected goals (based on the quality of their opponent’s shots) in five of those contests. They have only one clean sheet in their last nine games while surrendering a league-worst 29 goals over that span. Now they go back on the road where they have lost ten of their fifteen matches this season including their last two contests. They will be undermanned for this contest as well. 29-year old midfielder Sebastian Rode is out for this contest after getting called for his fifth yellow card last week. Leading scorer Gonzalo Paciencia and defensive midfielder Gelson Fernandes are also doubts for this match with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture between these two clubs back on December 6th. But Eintracht Frankfurt remains winless in their last four matches against Hertha Berlin. Die Alte Dame is 3 points ahead of the Eagles in 8th place in the Bundesliga table as they remain alive to claim the final qualifying spot for the Europa League next fall. 10* Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt-Hertha Berlin FS2-TV Special with the Hertha Berlin (202590) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (202589). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-20 |
Eintracht Frankfurt v. Bayern Munich -2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
16 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203006) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (2023005). THE SITUATION: The DFB-Pokal Cup is the national championship of the German professional leagues and considered the second most prestigious championship to the Bundesliga title in Germany. Bayern Munich reached the Semifinals of the DFB-Pokal back on March 3rd with their 1-0 win at FC Schalke 04. Eintracht Frankfurt joined them a day later with their 2-0 win at home against Werder Bremen in the quarterfinals of this event. Bayern Munich hosts this contest in their Allianz Arena.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH: The Bavarians are cruising their way to their eighth straight Bundesliga title after defeating Bayer Leverkusen on the road on Saturday by a 4-2 score. The Bavarians may be playing the best soccer in Europe since manager Hansi Flick took over the team in November. Flick moved Joshua Kimmich from the backline to a defensive midfield slot which jumpstarted the team’s defensive acumen on the pitch. Not only is Kimmich a dynamic player that gives his more room to shine in the middle of the field but this move opened up space for Phonzie to get more playing time — and the Canadian has thrived as a starting fullback. Bayern Munich is now W23-D1-L2 in their twenty-six matches under Flick in all competitions. Since the return to action last month, the Bavarians have won all five of their matches while scoring 17 goals and allowing just four goals while facing two of the top four teams in the Bundesliga in Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. They now host this match where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches with nine victories. The Bavarians have averaged 5.0 goals per game in their two matches at home since the return to acton while conceding only two goals. While asking even the best of teams to win by at least three goals is asking a lot, there are a few unique circumstances that make a Bayern Munich blowout likely. Their two strikers, Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller will be suspended for their Bundesliga match this weekend after both received their fifth yellow cards of the season last week in league play. Flick will likely keep both players on the pitch for most if not all of this match since they will be unavailable for the weekend. Flick also has his star central midfielder back in Thiago who has missed time with a groin strain. The Spaniard is one of the best passers in the world — and he has gelled with Kimmich since the later was moved up into the midfield. Eintracht Frankfurt looks to bounce-back from a bad 2-0 loss at home to FSV Mainz 05 last Saturday. The expected goals project had Mainz scoring 3.23 xG while allowing just 0.44 xGA — so that result could have been even worse. Die Adler is safe from relegation in the German top flight but they are in the bottom half of the table tied for 11th place. They have lost three of their six matches since the return to action while allowing 14 goals in those games. They have surrendered 22 goals in their last eight matches. They go back on the road where they have been miserable with ten losses in their fifteen league contests. To compound matters, this team will be missing some key pieces for this showdown. Serbian winger, Filip Kostic, is suspended for this match after getting tabbed with a four-game suspension in Eintracht Frankfurt’s last DFB-Pokal match in March. Die Adler is also dealing with two injuries with their leading scorer Gonzalo Paciencia and defensive midfielder Gelson Fernandes both dealing with knocks.
FINAL TAKE: There is little chance Bayern Munich will take this match lightly since Eintracht Frankfurt defeated them by a 5-1 score back on November 2nd which was the final straw for their previous manager Niko Kovac. The Bavarians got their revenge from that loss on May 23rd with a 5-2 win at home against Die Adler — but Flick’s team will remember that half the goals they have allowed since the return to action came in that match. This is a single-elimination match so there is no consolation for a close loss — meaning Eintracht Frankfurt will need to be more aggressive if and when they fall behind in this match. Expect a blowout with Lewandowski and Muller likely to be on the pitch for a long time given they are suspended their next league match. 25* Soccer ESPN Match of the Year with the Bayern Munich (203006) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (2023005). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-20 |
1. FC Koln v. FC Augsburg |
|
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 12 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing FC Koln (202561) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202562). THE SITUATION: FC Koln (W10-D4-L15) looks to bounce back from their 4-2 loss at home to RB Leipzig on Monday. Augsburg (W8-D7-L14) also looks to rebound from a 2-0 loss at Hertha Berlin last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE FC KOLN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Koln has been rather unlucky to be just W0-D2-L2 in their four matches since the return to action — yet they have won the expected goals battle in three of these matches. They have scored at least two goals in three of their last four matches including against the Red Bulls defense that is the second stingiest in the league to Bayern Munich in surrendering goals. The Billy Goats are in 12th place with 34 points in the German top-flight table — but their expected points (xPTS) based off the analysis of their expected goals scored (xG) and allowed this season (xGA) projects that they should have 39.83 points which are 8th best in the league. FC Koln has played better away from home as of late where they have won two of their last four matches while going W3-D1-L3 in their last seven contests. And while they have just 13 points away from home in league play which is tied for the 5th worst mark, their expected points when playing on the road ranks 9th best in the Bundesliga. Augsburg has won only twice in their last eleven matches. They have only 4 points in their last five matches — and they have just 11 points in their last fourteen contests. They have been held scoreless in their last two matches in league play — and they have scored only seven goals in their last nine matches while failing to score in five of these games. Frankly, this is a side that would be likely doomed to relegation if not for a surprising six-game winning streak that started late in the fall. Fuggerstadter opened the season with only 7 points in their last ten matches before going on that six-game hot streak. But Augsburg has reverted to that early season form and now find themselves just 3 points out of the final relegation spot. They host this match at Mungersdorfer Stadium where they have won just once in their last five contests.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture back on November 30th. While the Fuggerstadter has more to play for fighting off relegation, the Billy Goats have been the much better team according to the deeper metrics but have been snake bit with their results. 10* Bundesliga Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with FC Koln (202561) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-20 |
Hertha Berlin +1.5 v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L11) is unbeaten in their last six matches after they defeated Augsburg last Saturday by a 2-0 score. Borussia Dortmund (W18-D6-L5) bounced-back from their loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday with their 6-1 victory at Paderborn.
REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Alte Dame has been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga since the return to action last month as they are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches with eleven goals scored and just two goals conceded. Their expected goal differential of +0.79 net xG is 4th best in the league over that span. Manager Bruno Labbadia was appointed in April to take over this team and he has them playing with more spirit along with offensive punch. While scoring just 1.31 expected goals (xG) and surrendering 1.63 xGA before the stoppage of play, Hertha Berlin has averaged 2.03 xGF and allowed just 1.24 xGA in their four matches with an impressive +1.11 expected goal differential under Labbadia’s stewardship. Two additions in the transfer window have also played a big role for this side with Matheus Cunha and Krzysztof Piatek. While Cunha is a doubt to play this week as he deals with a concussion, that should ensure that Piatek starts up top alongside captain Vedad Ibisevic. The pricey Polish star from AC Milan scored the final goal in their win over Augsburg last week in the third minute of extended time after 90 minutes had passed. Hertha Berlin has scored at least two goals in six straight matches while tallying 16 goals over that span. They go back on the road where they have not lost in seven matches which includes an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig two matches ago. Borussia Dortmund entered halftime with a nil-nil score before exploding for six goals in the second half against a Paderborn side playing loose since they need points to avoid relegation. The Black-Yellows got a shot in the arm with the improved play of Jadon Sancho who scored three times in that second half. The 20-year old had been out of shape in the first few weeks of return to the pitch after being in self-quarantine for two months. Yet bettors should not read too much in his return to fitness as Borussia Dortmund has been an overachieving side this season. While they are 2nd in the league with 60 points, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 54.53. This team has been very fortunate on offense as they have scored 80 times despite having an expected goals mark of just 57.18. They have scored 18 times in their last eighteen matches before last week’s second-half explosion — but they had failed to gain at least a 1.50 xG mark in any of those matches with their expected goals being just over half of that at a 9.02 mark before their trip to Paderborn. They return home where they have scored 45 times — but they have just 31.68 expected goals in those fourteen matches. BVB also is dealing with a host of injuries for this match headlined by 19-year forward sensation Erling Haaland along with captain Marcos Reus dealing with knocks — and center defenseman Matt Hummels is suspected for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin played Borussia Dortmund tight in the reverse fixture between these two sides back on November 30th which resulted in a narrow 2-1 loss. That match was before the arrivals of Labbadia as manager along with Cunha and Piatek as transfers — and while Cunha may not play in this match, the betting market has not caught up to the dramatic improvements Die Alte Dame has made in the second half of the season. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach -0.5 v. SC Freiburg |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-127 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L7) comes off a 4-1 win over Union Berlin last Sunday. Freiburg (W10-D8-L11) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Monchengladbach is W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since the return to action after their decisive victory on Sunday. With them tied for 4th place in the Bundesliga standings with Bayer Leverkusen, they have plenty to play for with only the top four teams in the league qualifying for the Champions League next year. The forwards of the Foals have found cohesion as of late with Marcus Thuram scoring twice in their last match with Alassane Plea adding another goal in their three-goal victory. With six players who have scored at least five goals this season, the balanced attack of Borussia Monchengladbach has generated at least two expected goals (based off the xG metric) in seven of their last ten matches. Die Fohlen ranks 3rd in the league in expected goals scored for the season — and they have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches. Now they go back on the road where they are W7-D3-L4 while going unbeaten in their last five matches with three victories and two draws while posting a net expected goals margin of +3.87 in those contests. Borussia Monchengladbach is tied for 2nd in the Bundesliga with only 15 goals allowed in their fourteen league matches away from home. Freiburg has only won once in their last eight matches — and they have just three wins in 2020. Since returning to play last month, they are W0-D2-L2 while scoring just four times. The advanced metrics indicate this is the most overvalued team in Bundesliga. While they are tied for 8th place with 38 points, their expected points (xPTS) plummets to just 13th in the league at 32.28. They have been outscored by three goals this season that betrays their record where they have won ten of their nineteen league matches — but their expected goals net differential of -17.73 screams of regression. They have averaged just 1.00 expected goals scored over their last ten matches with that mark dropping to just 0.70 xG over their four matches since the return from quarantine which is the worst mark in the Bundesliga. Now they stay at home where they have lost five of their last seven matches. Freiburg ranks tied for 3rd in the league with just 16 goals allowed when playing at home — but their xGA jumps to 19.97 expected goals allowed at home in the Black Forest which is just 9th best. This side has generated only 6 points in their last eight matches. Manager Christian Streich has gone back to a standard 4-4-2 formation with only two forwards up top over their last three matches yet they have a -5.94 net expected goals margin in those contests. This maneuver has not sparked this team. In their 557 minutes playing in a 4-4-2, Freiburg is producing just a 0.90 xG mark — and they have a 1.86 xGA mark on defense.
FINAL TAKE: The last league meeting between these two teams resulted in a 4-2 victory for Borussia Monchengladbach where they had 23 shots with 17 of them within the 18-yard box. The metrics indicated this was a dominant performance for Gladbach with their expected goals being at 4.87 and their xGA being just 1.54. The Foals then won both friendlies between these two clubs on successive days in early January. With Borussia Monchengladbach needing to win this match to maintain their Champions League aspirations next year, expect them to pull out the victory on the road in an empty stadium. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-20 |
Union Berlin v. Borussia Monchengladbach -1 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (202522) minus the goal-line versus Union Berlin (202521). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W16-D5-L7) is winless in their last two matches after their nil-nil draw at Werder Bremen on Tuesday. Union Berlin (W9-D4-L15) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to FSV Mainz.
REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Fohlen had scored in nine straight matches before getting blanked on Tuesday. They return home where they are tied for 4th place with 31 goals — and they are 2nd in the league in expected goals scored based off that metric. Borussia Monchengladbach is the third best team in the league in points scored — and they have won nine of their thirteen league matches at home. Despite going winless in their last two matches, they remain tied for 4th place in the table which that slot being crucial for the Champions League — so they should remain very motivated. They seemed flat in their draw with Werder Bremen as their expected goal rate of 0.45 in that match was only the fourth time all season they did not generate at least a 1.0 xG mark in league play. Die Fohlen has scored in each of their home matches in the Bundesliga this season after not finding the back of the net to open their season. Union Berlin is winless in their last six contests — and they have generated only 10 points in their last thirteen matches in league play. With them being 4 points above the relegation zone but far away from 6th place which is necessary to qualify for the Europa League, I do worry about motivation for this team. Scoring prowess is certainly an issue for this team as they have scored just once in their three matches since the return to play. They are posting a dreary 0.61 xG mark over that span. Now this team goes back on the road where they have lost nine of their fourteen matches — and their 11 points away from home are tied for 2nd to last in the league. This is the first year this franchise has played in the Bundesliga after competing in the lesser leagues in Germany — and they are struggling on the road against the best teams in the league. In their eight matches against teams in the top-ten in the Bundesliga, Die Eisermen have lost all eight while being outscored by a whopping 22-4 margin.
FINAL TAKE: Union Berlin won the first meeting between these two teams by a 2-0 score — so the Borussia Monchengladbach should be extra-motivated to get back to their winning ways with revenge on their minds. 10* Bundesliga Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with the Borussia Monchengladbach (202522) minus the goal-line versus Union Berlin (202521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-20 |
SV Werder Bremen +0.5 v. Schalke 04 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Werder Bremen (202525) with the goal-line versus Schalke (202526). THE SITUATION: Werder Bremen (W5-D7-L15) enters this match coming off a nil-nil draw against Borussia Monchengladbach on Tuesday. Schalke (W9-D10-L9) comes off a 2-1 loss at Fortuna Dusseldorf on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE WERDER BREMEN WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Schalke are 9th in the standings but they are a complete mess right now having not won a match in their last ten league games going back to January 17th. They have lost six of those contests with four draws while surrendering 24 goals and scoring a mere three times. The deeper metrics confirm this collapse in quality as they are averaging just 0.81 expected goals (xG) in those last ten matches in league play while allowing 1.55 xGA. Since the return to play this month, the Royal Blues have lost all three matches while allowing nine goals and finding the back of the net just once. This team is showing almost no ambition on offense with that xG of 0.81 being the second-lowest in the league during the last ten matches. In part, manager David Wagner has placed an emphasis on defensive tactics which accounts for some of the slide in offensive production. The former Huddersfield manager is also engaged in a youth movement — and that is likely to continue with their Europa League aspirations slipping away. Die Kanppen is now 5 points out of the 6th place needed to qualify for the Europa. But this team has also been ravaged by injuries with first-stringers Omar Mascarell, Benjamin Stambowli, and Suat Serder all out with ailments. The metrics don’t like this team either with their expected points coming from the xG/xGA analysis dropping them to 13th in the league. In retrospect, it looks like Wagner’s side was pretty fortunate in the first half of the season but the Regression Gods have paid them an inevitable visit — and now they are suffering from the malaise of May which are made even worse when the roster was off for two months from the quarantines. Werder Bremen has much more to play for as they fight to get out of the final relegation spot in the table. Manager Florian Kohfeldt’s team does come off two straight clean sheets so they can build off their improving defensive efforts. They outplayed a Borussia Monchengladbach side on Tuesday who begins this match week tied for 4th place — they limited them to just 0.45 expected goals while posting better 0.93 xG numbers on offense. The River Islanders are typically a midlevel team in the Bundesliga while holding the longest consecutive streak playing in the top-flight since the 1981-82 season.
FINAL TAKE: Werder Bremen is a proud organization that is desperate to avoid relegation — and they are playing much better than Schalke at this point of the season. The River Islanders have won their last three matches at Veltins-Arena against the Royal Blues so they will be confident they can seize a crucial three points. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with the Werder Bremen (202525) with the goal-line versus Schalke (202526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-20 |
FC Augsburg v. Hertha Berlin -0.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W9-D8-L11) enters this match coming off an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig on Wednesday. Augsburg (W8-D7-L13) comes off a nil-nil draw at home to Paderborn on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Hertha Berlin showed no fear in traveling to Red Bull Arena to face an RB Leipzig side that the Expected Goals (xG) analytics ranks as the second-best team in the Bundesliga. The metrics for that match on Wednesday projected that Die Alte Dame should have defeated RB Leipzig by a 1.74 to 0.58 margin based on the empirical data from the quality and quantity of shots for both teams in that match. This Hertha Berlin team is much better than their record indicates at this point of the season. Die Alte Dame began the year with high expectations with a talented roster along with a high profile new manager in former USNMT skipper Jurgen Klinsmann. But Klinsmann was sacked in February over conflicts with ownership regarding the direction of this franchise. Hertha Berlin was very aggressive in the January transfer window as they brought in two talented strikers in Krzysztof Piatek and Matheus Cunha. While Piatek was the more glamorous and expensive signing coming over from AC Milan, Cunha has so far made the bigger impact on the pitch with four goals in his seven matches for his new team. Die Alte Dame also replaced interim manager Alexander Nouri who took over for Klinsmann with Bruno Labbadia in April during the stoppage of play. Labbadia has led his team to two wins and that draw at RB Leipzig earlier this week while scoring 9 goals while producing two clean sheets. Hertha Berlin is now unbeaten in their last five matches while scoring at least five goals in all those contests with the new talent at forward jumpstarting their offense. This team begins the day in 10th place in the German top-flight table while being 7 points out of 6th place which is necessary to qualify for next year’s Europa League. Yet this team is playing with as much momentum as any team in the league under their new manager as they continue to gain cohesion and build for next year. Augsburg may be lacking motivation with them being ranked 12th in the table — 4 points above relegation but even farther away from the 6th place Europa slot. Fuggerstadter has generated only 11 points over their last thirteen matches — and they have won only twice in their last ten games. Augsburg only picked up 1 point on Wednesday against a Paderborn side that is in the basement in the Bundesliga — and the xG projected a loss by a 1.25-0.84 margin in that contest so they were probably fortunate with the draw. They did snap a five-game losing streak on the road last weekend when they defeated Schalke — but that opponent is mired in a terrible ten-match winless streak as they spiral in the wrong direction. A good case can be made that Fuggerstadter has benefited from playing the two worst teams in the league right now over their last two contests. Finding offense has been the biggest problem as they have scored only seven combined goals over their last eight matches — and they were held scoreless in four of those contests. Forward Florian Niederlechner is the team’s leading scorer but he has been blanked in eight straight matches. They go back on the road where they have only scored three times in their last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin will have the extra motivation in this contest to avenge a 4-0 loss at Augsburg back on November 24th. Fuggerstadter was playing much better in the fall — and it is now Die Alte Dame that is playing with much better form. 25* Bundesliga Match of the Month with the Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 v. SC Freiburg |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W16-D5-L7) saw their five-match winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-1 upset loss at home to Wolfsburg. Freiburg (W10-D8-L10) comes off a 3-3 draw at Frankfurt on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Werkself may have been ripe for an emotional letdown after they defeated Borussia Monchengladbach on the road by a 3-1 score to seize 4th place in the standings. But the loss on Tuesday dropped them back into 5th place which is one position outside on qualifying for next season’s Championship League. Bayer Leverkusen had been playing great — they had won nine of their last eleven matches while being unbeaten in twelve straight matches before suffering the upset earlier this week. But with still plenty to play for, manager Peter Bosz’s squad should respond with a strong effort. Bosz had his team playing more cautiously in the first half of the season with superstar midfielder, Kai Havertz, playing more of a defensive role. Die Werkself lost Julian Brandt in the offseason and missed his talent on the pitch along with his seven goals from last season. But Bosz pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in midseason which has resulted in this team going on a scoring spree. Not only have they scored in seventeen straight matches but they have also scored a combined 18 goals in their last six contests even after scoring just once on Tuesday. Havertz had scored four goals in the first two matches in the return of play this month before going scoreless against Wolfsburg. But with striker Kevin Holland not yet fit after returning to training after dealing with an injury, Havertz will continue to play the striker role that he thrived in as of late. Bayer Leverkusen has won nine of their fifteen matches on the road in league play — their 28 points away from home is tied for the second-most in the German top flight. Freiburg is the most overachieving side in the Bundesliga — while they are 8th on the table with 38 points, their expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed numbers drop to the 5th lowest in the league. Freiburg has only won one match in their last seven matches and just three times in 2020 — and they have won only four of their last sixteen contests. They were very fortunate to escape with the one point for their draw on Tuesday since the expected goal metric projected that they should have allowed 4.38 goals to Frankfurt while scoring just 0.82 goals — so they were graded with the most fortunate result last week. They had a 3-1 lead in the match ending the final 11 minutes of regulation before surrounding two goals in the next three minutes in settling for the draw. By the end of the match, they had allowed a whopping 21 shots with 13 of them being on target. It is luck on their end of the pitch which has been the biggest reason why they are over-performing their deeper metrics. While Freiburg ranks 7th in the league in goals allowed, their expected goals allowed (xGA) plummets to the third-worst mark in the league. And while they are tied for allowing the third-fewest goals when playing at home, their ranking drops to 10th place in xGA when playing at the Black Forest at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw on November 23rd — but Freiburg remains winless in their last five matches against Beyer Leverkusen. Only earning 1 point in that contest should ensure they do not take Freiburg lightly in this reverse fixture. Coming off the upset loss, look for Die Werkself to respond with a strong effort. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Month with the Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W19-D4-L4) has won six straight matches while being unbeaten in thirteen straight games in the Bundesliga after their 5-2 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. Borussia Dortmund (W17-D6-L4) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolfsburg on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund was fortunate to earn the two-goal victory as they only managed four shots in the match — and their expected goals based on the deeper metrics was just 0.91. The Black-and-Yellows have scored 74 goals this season — but the analytics are screaming for regression with this team given that their expected goals this year plummet to just 52.06 goals. While BVB is second in the German top-flight table with 57 points, their points based on expected goals fall to 50.48. Borussia Dortmund has the best record at home in the Bundesliga with a W10-D3-L0 mark for 33 points — but the xG metric projects those points to only accrue 27.39. Their 45 goals when playing at home drops significantly with the expected goals metric to just 31.06 xG. The Black-and-Yellows would certainly prefer that fans would be in the crowd for this Der Klassiker to help reproduce their famed “yellow wall.” This team is also dealing with injuries with forward (and captain) Marcos Reus out for this match with a knock while 20-year old phenom Jadon Sancho remains questionable with his injury. Borussia Dortmund is loaded with young talent — but experience in big matches like this is an issue. This team does not have the level of depth as Bayern Munich — and it is questionable how many of their starting XI would warrant the starting lineup if these two rosters were hypothetically merged. Bayern Munich may very well be the best team in Europe. They have won fourteen of their seventeen matches since they fired manager Niko Kovac to replace him with Hansi Flick. The Bavarians have won seven straight Bundesliga titles — and Flick reinvigorated this team by instituting a high press with a 4-1-4-1 formation. Bayern Munich’s defense has significantly improved under Flick as this team has done much better in coaxing suboptimal shots. Der Rekordmeister had registered five straight clean sheets before they surrendered two goals in a three-minute span on Saturday against Frankfurt. Led by forwards Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller along with 19-year old Canadian sensation Alphonso Davies at left wing, the Bavarians lead the German top-flight with 80 goals — and their 37 goals away from home are the most goals on the road in the league. Bayern Munich has won nine of their thirteen matches on the road in league play this season.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is in first-place by 4 points over Borussia Dortmund who is the next closest team to them in the standings — and even the expected goals metrics suggest they are slightly underachieving. The Bavarians are no fluke — and a victory in this match likely cements their eight-straight league championship. They will likely be without midfielder Thiago who is injured for this match — but this team has plenty of depth to replace him on the pitch. Bayern Munich blasted Borussia Dortmund by a 4-0 score in the reverse fixture back on November 9th — and they have won the last two spring showdowns with their primary Bundesliga rivals by a combined 11-0 score. Expect Bayern Munich to once again outclass this BVB side that has been very fortunate with their scoring success this season — especially with no home crowd to apply pressure to the road favorites in this match. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS1-TV Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-20 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf v. 1. FC Koln -0.5 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). THE SITUATION: FC Koln (W10-D3-L13) returned to the pitch last Sunday with a 2-2 draw at home to FSV Mainz. Fortuna Dusseldorf (W5-D8-L13) also comes off a draw in their nil-nil results at home versus SC Paderborn last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE FC KOLN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: FC Koln was frustrated last week after blowing a 2-0 lead in that game. But this is still a side moving in the right direction having won eight of their last twelve matches outright. The Billy Goats opened the season losing ten of their first fourteen league matches but now find themselves in the middle at the table in 10th place and likely safe from relegation. This team has improved in the second half of the season with the acquisition of forward Mark Uth on loan from Schalke who has since scored five times while adding four assists in his eight matches with the team. FC Koln is projected as the 8th best team in the league when looking at the expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed this year. The Billy Goats had been playing better defense before the stoppage of play as they have allowed only three combined goals in their last four matches before surrendering two goals last week in the final 30 minutes of that contest. FC Koln has played much better at home lately as well with only one loss in their last five league contests to the first-place Bayern Munich. They have also generated 10 points in their last five home matches with three outright victories. Fortuna Dusseldorf may be demoralized after last week as they hit three posts in their scoreless draw with Paderborn. That was a crucial opportunity for Die Flingeraner to get themselves out of the relegation zone against the last-place team. Now they still find themselves 4 points out of 15th place. While Fortuna Dusseldorf has allowed 50 goals this season which is the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga, they are the bottom team in the league in expected goals allowed. They are also the second-worst team in the Bundesliga in expected points when playing on the road. To compound matters, this team will be without a key piece to their defense with Kaan Ayaan suspended for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card last week.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation is a concern for FC Koln with them seemingly safe from relegation but still 6 points out of 6th place which is the final qualifying spot for next year’s Europa League. But the Billy Goats have the opportunity to avenge a 2-0 loss to Fortuna Dusseldorf back on November 3rd which was a match played amidst their dreary start to the season. Getting the bad taste out of their mouth from blowing a two-goal lead is the other motivating factor for this contest. The analytics indicate there is a significant difference between these two sides. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS1-TV Match of the Year with the FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach v. Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-155 |
20 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Eintracht Frankfurt (202422) with the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202421). THE SITUATION: Frankfurt (W8-D4-L12) has lost their last three matches after their 3-0 loss at home to Basel in a Europa match back on March 12th. Gladbach (W15-D4-L6) last played on March 11th when they defeated Koln at home by a 2-1 score in Bundesliga action.
REASONS TO TAKE FRANKFURT WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Eagles were veering in the wrong direction before the stoppage of play as they had lost three straight matches while being outscored by a 10-1 margin over that span. Frankfurt has won only once in their last five matches. But this enigmatic team had been on a W5-D1-L1 run before this recent stretch — and this group did finish in the top-six on the German professional league last season which qualified them for this year’s Europa league. It has been an injury-marred season for manager Adi Hutter — but the two-month break has allowed the Eagles to get as close to full-health as they have been all season. Frankfurt expects Bas Dost, Gelson Fernandes, and Lucas Torro to return to the pitch in this match. This team is the most underachieving side in the Bundesliga according the deeper analytics. While the Eagles are 12th in the table with 28 points, their expected points (xPTS) based on expected goals (xG) scored and allowed (xGA) this season projected them to should have secured 37.10 points (xPTS) which is the 7th best in the league. Frankfurt has 21 points when playing at home at Commercialzbank Arena which is 6th best in Bundesliga. While the Eagles will not have the benefit of home fans for this match with Germany requiring social distancing, I am still assigning home field advantage for these matches given the familiarity teams have for their own pitch along with the benefit of not having to travel. Borussia Monchengladbach was perhaps playing their best soccer of the season before the stoppage as they had only lost once in their last seven matches. But manager Marcos Rose’s team was likely overachieving given the analytics. While they are currently 4th in the league with 49 points, their xPTS drops to 45.98. Gladbach is dominant at home where they are W9-D2-L2 with their 29 points being tied for second-most in the Bundesliga and just a point behind Borussia Dortmund’s 30 home points. But Gladblach has won only half of their twelve matches on the road this season. This team is also missing one of their best players with Denis Zakaria out for around six weeks after getting knee surgery. The 23-year old Swiss star is only one of four players in the league with at least 170 ball recoveries this season along with a duel success rate of at least 57%. Zakaria is a holding midfielder which is a position that is the lynchpin for a team’s cohesiveness on defense. I really worry about good teams that lose their best defensive midfielders — and the loss of these players is often underestimated by bettors since these players do not rack up goals and assists (e.g.: Leicester City was just W2-D2-L4 in their last eight matches in the English Premier League after their star holding midfielder, Wilfred Ndidi, not starting as he nursed an injury — they had started W13-D2-L4 in their first nineteen EPL matches this season before Ndidi’s injury).
FINAL TAKE: This is a nice betting opportunity with an overvalued road team according to the metrics traveling to face an undervalued home team when looking at those same analytics. Gladbach is well in the hunt to qualify for one of the four Champions League qualifying positions for next season — but with those expectations also comes pressure. Frankfurt can play this match loose in the role of the spoiler — while also knowing that getting on a winning streak can put them in a position to still qualify for next year’s Europa League with a top-six finish. The Eagles can also end a three-match losing streak to Gladbach with a victory. With Frankfurt a small underdog to a pick ‘em at home, take the home team. 10* Bundesliga Gladbach-Frankfurt FS1-TV Special with Eintracht Frankfurt (202422) with the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202421). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-20 |
SC Freiburg v. Lokomotive Leipzig -1.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-137 |
31 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus SC Freiburg (202405). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W14-D8-L3) returns to the pitch after a two-month absence from action given the stoppage of play in the Bundesliga from the Coronavirus. They last played on March 10th when they dominated Tottenham by a 3-0 score in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 to advance to the Quarterfinals of the European Championship by an aggregate 4-0 score. Freiburg (W10-D6-L9) last played on Match 7th when they defeated Union Berlin by a 3-1 score.
REASONS TO LAY THE GOAL-LINE WITH RB LEIPZIG: Manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team should be very motivated to play out the string of their Bundesliga matches. They currently sit in 3rd place in Germany’s top-flight league five points behind Bayern Munich in 1st place and just one point behind 2nd place Borussia Dortmund. This team also features several players who are in line for big paydays on the summer transfer market — so taking advantage of these matches which will have the attention of the world with the Bundesliga being the first major European soccer league returning to action could be very lucrative. Forward Timo Werner is being rumored to have the interest of Liverpool while midfielder Marcel Sabitzer has been possibly linked to both Liverpool and Arsenal. Werner has 21 goals this season with another 8 assists. RB Leipzig also has a dynamic attacking midfielder Christopher Nkunku leads the Bundesliga with 65 scoring chances — and his 4.05 scoring chances per 90 minutes average this season is the second-best of all players in the top-five European professional leagues. But the strength of manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is on defense. RB Leipzig is tied for tops in the Bundesliga in fewest goals allowed. This team has allowed only one goal in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have registered six clean sheets in their last seven matches overall. Consistent play on the defensive side of the pitch is the characteristic that I suspect will carry over after the long layoff. Freiburg has just three victories in 2020 despite defeating Union Berlin in their last match. They are led by Nils Petersen — but their top-scorer has not found the back of the net in his last eight league matches. Freiburg can struggle to create scoring chances so I expect them to struggle against this RB Leipzig side that is so good at shot suppression. They had scored only three goals in their previous five matches before their three-goal effort against Union Berlin. Freiburg has scored only 18 goals in their thirteen league matches on the road. And while they have conceded 21 goals in their thirteen matches away from home in Bundesliga, the deeper metrics indicate that they expected goals they should have allowed jumps to 28.32. RB Leipzig is in 8th place in the league with 36 points — but the analytics projects regression with their net xG of only 28.79 points entering this match.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig hosts this match at their Red Bull Arena where they are W7-D4-L1 in league play this season. While there will not be fans for this contest given social distancing guidelines, I am still assigning advantages to the home team given the familiarity of their arena along with not having to travel for this match. RB Leipzig will also have revenge on their mind after losing at Freiburg by a 2-1 score back on October 26th. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202405). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-29-20 |
Liverpool -1 v. Watford |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200069) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200070). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D1-L0) returns to the pitch after a shaky 3-2 win at home against West Ham on Monday. Watford (W5-D9-L13) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss at Manchester United on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: After an unbeaten four-match run through New Year’s Day where Watford won three of those matches outright under new manager Nigel Pearson who was installed in early December, the Hornets have faltered since by going winless in their last five matches. Watford has only scored once in their last two matches but it is the play of their defense that draw the larger concerns. In their first seven matches under Pearson, they allowed only 8.5 shots in the box per game along with just 1.33 Big Chances allowed to their opponents per game. But in these last five contests, the Hornets have allowed 11 shots in the box per match along with 2.0 Big Chances per game. Watford has allowed at least two goals in three of their last four contests which puts a Liverpool victory by at least two goals very much in play. The Hornets are W1-D3-L4 in their eight matches against Big Six sides but they have surrendered 18 goals while scoring just 6 times in those contests. Liverpool was unfocused on defense on Monday by allowing the Hammers to score first and then to take a 2-1 lead. But the Reds dominated that contest with 25 shots to just 7 for West Ham — and they did what was needed to rally to pull out the 3-2 victory. With no midweek action since that contest, manager Jurgen Klopp’s team should be rested and ready for this contest. While winning the English Premier League title appears to be a fait accompli, Liverpool remains motivated to break Arsenal’s EPL unbeaten streak while also posting a historic point total in the league. They should bounce-back with a strong effort. Remember, they surrender more goals on Monday (unfortunately, for us, as we had the Under) than they had in their previous eleven EPL matches combined. Yet the Reds have still registered clean sheets in ten of their last twelve EPL matches. Liverpool has loved to face Watford under Klopp’s stewardship as they have scored 27 goals in their nine EPL matches against them. Mo Salah might have a big game as he has scored eight times in his five EPL matches against the Hornets. Liverpool has won all ten of their matches on the road against non-Power Six opponents while scoring 22 goals and conceding just 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: Watford is winless in their last eight EPL matches against Liverpool with seven outright losses. 20* EPL Liverpool-Watford NBC-TV Special with the Liverpool (200069) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200070). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-20 |
Leicester -0.5 v. Norwich City |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Leicester City (200045) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200045). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W15-D5-L7) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at home to Manchester City last Saturday. Norwich City (W4-D6-L17) comes off a 3-0 loss at Wolverhampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is a get-right game for the Foxes. Leicester has not scored in their last two matches and their best attacker, Jamie Vardy, has not scored in seven straight matches. The team really missed Wilfried Ndidi in the midfield who has been the glue of this team. But the Foxes have also endured a challenging schedule as of late in the English Premier League with their previous matches being against a solid Wolverhampton side that is playing their best soccer of the season along with Chelsea. Leicester City has thrived against the non-Power Six sides in the EPL this season: they are W13-D3-L2 in those contests while scoring 45 goals and conceding just 12 times in those eighteen matches. The Foxes have also been capable when playing on the road where they are W7-D2-L4 in thirteen matches while scoring 28 times and conceding just 12 goals. Vardy is unquestionably out of form but he has been a reliable striker for many years who should eventually get it going again — and he is getting chances. Manager Brendan Rodgers has plenty of capable goal scorers in his starting XI including Harvey Barnes who has scored three goals in the last five weeks along with Ayoze Perez who recently registered a brace and Touri Tielemans who has two assists in 2020. And those names fail to mention the Foxes’ second best offensive player in James Maddison who is also enduring a slump. Norwich City may be just what the doctor ordered for Leicester City. Wolverhampton battered them last week with 19 shot attempts with 13 of them in the box and five big chances that correlated with an Expected-Goals scored metric above the three goals that they scored against the porous Canaries defense. The 51 goals that Norwich has allowed this season is the second most in the EPL — and the 26 goals they have allowed at home is also the second most in the league. The Canaries have lost three of their last four matches in EPL action while failing to score in three straight games. Over their last fourteen EPL matches, they are just 1-5-8 which is why they are in the basement of the standings. Since relegation is likely for this team, they should play this match aggressively since they are desperate for victories with the 3 points they accrue.
FINAL TAKE: There is little chance of Leicester City taking this team lightly since they settled for a disappointing 1-1 draw with them back on December 14th at home in their first meeting. The Foxes are the better team — and they need the victory to jumpstart their season where they hope to qualify in the top four for the Champions League for next season. Leicester City prefers opponents like the Canaries who play with a more open style of play — and, remember, that they had scored 54 goals over a twenty-four match span (while being blanked just once) before their recent two-game slide. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200045) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. Norwich City |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-59.5 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200149) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200150). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W24-D1-L0) won their sixteenth straight match in English Premier League play two Saturdays ago with their 4-0 win at home against Southampton. Norwich City (W4-D6-L15) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle back on February 1st.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are clicking on all cylinders with it seeming inevitable that they will capture the EPL crown this season. Liverpool is unbeaten in their last forty-two EPL matches. While some teams might go on auto-pilot at this point of the season, that is unlikely to happen to this Reds team with them chasing the EPL all-time record set by Arsenal in 2004 with their forty-nine game unbeaten streak. Instead, this Liverpool team is rested from the week off while getting healthy again with both Sadio Mane and James Milner both fit to take the pitch again. The Reds have an important Champions League match on deck next week against Atletico Madrid — but with last week off, I expect the manager Jurgen Klopp to get his best players on the pitch for this match to get them back into game shape. Liverpool has dominated the lesser teams in the league this season as they have won all eighteen of their matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 46 goals and conceding just ten times. Nine of those victories have been on the road where they have scored 25 goals against non-Big Six sides while allowing just six goals. After a slow start on defense this season, Liverpool has been very stingy as of late as they have registered nine clean sheets in their last ten matches while conceding just one goal over that span. The insertion of Joe Gomez in their backline has correlated with the improved play. The issue may come down to whether or not Liverpool scores twice in this contest. The Reds have scored at least two goals in fourteen of their last sixteen EPL contests. Furthermore, Liverpool has won eight of their last eleven matches by at least two goals — and they have won three of their last five matches on the road by at least two goals. Norwich City is winless in their last thirteen EPL matches with eleven of those contests being outright defeats. While the Canaries have registered two clean sheets in their last three matches, they have also scored only two goals in their last four contests after suffering a 4-0 loss at Manchester United. Norwich City is at the bottom of the table while being at severe risk of being relegated. Yet Klopp will have an easy sell to his squad to not have his group take this team lightly since they have defeated Manchester City at home while earning draws with Tottenham and Chelsea. The 47 goals that the Canaries have surrendered this season is the tied for the second most in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six EPL matches at Norwich City with 25 combined goals in those contests where they scored at least two goals in each game. With such a talent disparity between the Reds and the promoted Canaries from the Champions League last year — and with Liverpool motivated to break Arsenal’s unbeaten record — look for a decisive victory. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Liverpool (200149) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-20 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. West Ham United |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (200081) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200082). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W22-D1-L0) has won fourteen straight matches in English Premier League action with their 2-1 win at Wolverhampton last Thursday. West Ham (W6-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 4-1 loss at Leicester City last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big news for the Reds is that they will be missing their star midfielder, Sadio Mane, who injured his hamstring in the match against the Wolves which will keep him out for (at least) their next two EPL contests. But this Liverpool team remains loaded led by Mo Salah in the middle of the pitch along with Robert Firmino up top. Since the start of the 2017-18 EPL season, Salah has scored 14 goals with 11 assists. Salah has also scored six goals with two assists in his last four EPL matches when playing without Mane. Expect this team to step up in Mane’s absence to be play a very focused match as they look to continue their historic campaign. The Reds’ defensive backline remains in tact for this match — they had racked up seven straight clean sheets in EPL action before Wolverhampton scored on them last week. Most of the key starters did not play on Sunday in Liverpool’s 2-2 draw in FA Cup action at Shrewsbury Town — so the players on the pitch today should be rested. And while the FA Cup is not at the forefront of the team’s championship goals this season, they should be feisty to get back to their winning ways in this one. The Reds have won seven of their last fourteen EPL matches by more than one goal. They are W10-D1-L0 on the road in the EPL this season where they have scored 23 times while conceding just six times. Liverpool also takes care of business against the lesser teams in the EPL as they are a perfect W16-D0-L0 against non-Power Six sides while averaging 2.5 Goals-Per-Game in those contests and conceding just 10 times for a 0.62 Goals-Per-Game allowed rate. Eight of those victories against non-Power Six sides have been on the road where they are averaging 2.4 Goals-Per-Game while allowing just just 0.5 Goals-Per-Game. West Ham was crushed by Leicester City despite the Foxes not playing with Jamie Vardy for half that game when he left the pitch with an injury with the score just 1-0. The Hammers have been dealing with injuries — they hope to get back midfielder Robert Snodgrass and goaltender Lukasz Fabianksi for this contest. But midfielder Felipe Anderson will likely miss this game again with his injury which leaves the West Ham offensive attack limited. The Hammers have scored only two combined goals in their last three games — and they have only scored more than one goal in a match just once in their last ten matches.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham has upset Manchester United by a 2-0 score at home this season but that was their only victory in their four home matches against Power Six sides this season. They lost the other three matches at home — and they have been outscored by an 11 to 6 margin in those four matches at home against Power Six teams. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Liverpool (200081) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-20 |
West Ham United v. Leicester -1 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200066) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200065). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W14-D3-L6) has lost two straight English Premier League matches with their 2-1 loss at Burnley on Sunday. West Ham (W6-D5-L11) comes off a 1-1 draw to Everton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes need a victory after dropping two straight games. This is a team that is a bit out of form — but the circumstances have been a bit strange as well. They took a 1-0 lead at Burnley on Sunday but surrendered two second half goals to lose that contest. Jamie Vardy also missed a penalty shot which would have likely resulted in the draw. Vardy is in a bit of a slump. After their disappointing 4-0 loss at home to Liverpool last month, Vardy then missed two matches to an ankle injury and then for the birth of his child. In his three EPL matches since returning to the pitch, Vardy has managed only three combined shots. Vardy still has 17 goals this season with 6 assists this season — and he has thrived under Brendan Rodgers leadership since he took over as manager last season. Leicester City was also without defender Ben Chilwell and midfielder Hamza Chaudhary after they missed a practice session before that match with Burnley but Rodgers expects them back for this match. The Foxes previous loss last week was at a surging Southampton side — so that is understandable. But Leicester City now finds themselves on both a two-game losing streak and a two-game slide at home at Kings Power Stadium after that loss to Liverpool. The Foxes had been on an W11-D3-L1 run at home — and the six goals they have allowed in their last two home matches is the same number of combined goals they had allowed in their previous thirteen matches at home. Leicester City remains a side that is W7-D2-L2 at home this season while scoring 20 goals an conceding just 11 times. The Foxes also thrive against the bottom teams in the EPL as they own a W12-D2-L2 record against non-Power Six sides while scoring 41 goals in those sixteen matches and conceding just 11 goals. West Ham is W1-D1-L1 since bringing back David Moyes as their manager to begin the new calendar year but they are still fighting off relegation with their mere 23 points which currently has them tied for second-to-last place on the EPL table. The concern for the Hammers is the Expected Goals metric translates into them predicted to have just 19.66 points at this point of the season — so they may actually be overachieving relative to their actions on the pitch. West Ham is W3-D3-L5 in their eleven matches on the road — but their 12 points in those matches far exceeds their Expected Goals prediction of just 7.57 points. The metrics suggest that the Hammers have been rather fortunate in only allowing 34 goals this season given their Expected Goals Allowed comes in at 41.18. Furthermore, while West Ham has allowed only 14 goals on the road, the Expected Goals Allowed away from home jumps to 22.72. The Hammers will not be at full strength for this game either. Their outstanding goalkeeper, Lukas Fabianski, is out with an injury while one of their most creative players on offense in midfielder Felipe Anderson is also out with a back injury.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the initial meeting between these two teams on the road by a 2-1 score on December 28th. West Ham has five losses and one draw in their last six evening kickoffs in EPL play. And Rodgers has not seen three straight losses as a manager in the EPL since November 2014 when he was the skipper for Liverpool. This looks like a bounce-back match for Leicester City against a struggling and undermanned Hammers side. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Leicester City (200066) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-19 |
Liverpool v. Leicester +0.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Leicester City (200074) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200073). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (12W-3D-3L) looks to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss at Manchester City on Saturday. Liverpool (16W-1D-0L) take the pitch against English Premier League action since their 2-0 win over Watford back on December 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool had their Week 19 fixture pushed back due to their involvement in the Club World Cup in Qatar last week where they lifted the trophy after two relatively easy matches. But the Reds still traveled across the world to accomplish this task last week — and they certainly celebrated adding another trophy to their display case. The fact is that Liverpool would be absolutely thrilled with a one-goal victory while being quite content with a draw considering that they are 10 points ahead in the table over this second place Leicester City team. The Reds’ only blemish in EPL action this season is a 1-1 draw at Manchester United — so this team may be due for the proverbial letdown. The analytics naturally indicate that they are overachieving — the Expected Goal metric projects they should have 34.15 points at this point of the season as compared to their near perfect 49 points they have compiled in their first eighteen matches. Liverpool has also won eight straight matches in EPL play on the road — but xG analysis projects them overachieving with 22 points on the road as opposed to their 14.71 number. The Reds are also dealing with some injuries right now with the most significant being to midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain who suffered a knock last week in Qatar. Leicester City had won eight straight matches in EPL play before engaging in a disappointing 1-1 draw at home with Norwich City before last week’s loss at Man City. Those three goals they surrendered to the reigning EPL champions was as many as they had allowed in their last eight matches combined. Now they return home where they are unbeaten in nine matches with a 7W-2D-0L mark while scoring 19 goals and conceding just five times. First-year manager Brendan Rodgers has been just what this franchise needed since taking over last February. He has unleashed forward Jamie Vardy who has generated a scoring return in 10 straight matches while scoring at least one goal in nine of those EPL contests. Vardy also loves facing this Liverpool team. He missed last year’s home fixture with the Reds due to suspension but he had scored five combined goals in his previous three home matches against Liverpool. The Foxes have not lost to a Power Six EPL side at home since Rodgers took over the helm with three of those matches being outright victories. Leicester City has scored seven goals in those four home matches against a Power-Six side while conceding just two goals.
FINAL TAKE: With Boxing Day representing the midpoint of the season, this is a rematch of the first meeting between these two teams on October 5th at Liverpool where the Reds defeated the Foxes by a narrow 2-1 score. Leicester City is catching Liverpool at perhaps an opportune time to where they could pull the upset — but at least a draw seems likely. 25* EPL Boxing Day Match of the Year with Leicester City (200074) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200073). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-19 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester United +0.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200106) with the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200105). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W4-6D-4L) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa last Sunday. Tottenham (W5-D5-L4) looks to build off their 3-2 win over Bournemouth last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Red Devils have endured two straight draws to two promoted sides against Aston Villa and a 3-3 final score with Sheffield United. The conventional wisdom is that this Manchester United team is underachieving with just four victories so far this season. Their 18 points after fourteen matches is their slowest start since 1988-89. But this team has been hit hard with injuries particularly with Anthony Martial missing a handful of matches in the fall. This team is much better when Martial joins forward Marcus Rashford. The Red Devils remain unbeaten in their last three matches while also sporting a W2-D3-L1 mark over their last six EPL matches. This team tends to underachieve against the lesser teams — but they are also unbeaten with a W1-D2-L0 mark in their three matches against a Power-Six side this season. Man United was impressive in a 1-1 draw against Liverpool in their last match against a Power Six team. This Red Devils team should be extremely motivated to play well with this being their first opportunity to face Jose Mourinho since he was sacked as their manager last year. Mourinho did not gel with most of the players on this roster. Tottenham has responded by winning their first two EPL matches under Mourinho since the club fired Mauricio Pochettino with their victory over West Ham before their win over the Cherries last week. But this team had gone their five previous EPL matches winless. Its seems apparent that the team quit playing hard for the demanding Pochettino. But this is also an aging roster that has gotten stuck on same bad contracts without replenishing the group with younger talent. The Spurs are just W0-D2-L1 in their three matches against a Power Six team this season. Tottenham is also just W1-D3-L3 on the road this season while being outscored by a 10 to 14 goal margin. Last year, this team was a mediocre W11-D0-L8 in their nineteen road matches while posting an ugly W1-D0-L4 mark in their five road matches against a Power Six side.
FINAL TAKE: Manchester United should play inspired soccer this afternoon and take at least a point in their opportunity to show-up a Mourinho-coached team — but don’t be surprised if the Red Devils pull off the upset at home at Old Trafford. 25* EPL Midweek NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Manchester United (200106) with the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Liverpool -1 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Liverpool (200034) minus the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200033). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (8W-1D-0L) saw their seventeen match winning streak in English Premier League action snapped last Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Manchester United. Tottenham (3W-3D-3L) comes off a listless 1-1 draw at home against Watford last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: It looks like the nice run for the Spurs is slowing coming to the end. Tottenham is just in 10th place in the EPL standings with their 12 points. The cohesion with this team on the pitch appears to be fraying with the sam group of players still together over the last few years. Manager Mauricio Pachettino is rumored to be interested in the Real Madrid job where he will be managing a club that is more willing to spend on free agents. While the Spurs come off an easy 5-0 win in Champions League play over Crvena Zvezda during the week, the grind of the Champions League schedule over the last two seasons may be wearing on this team that has to rely on their superstars for both CL and EPL matches. This is a team that is particularly struggling on the road where they are winless with two draws and two losses this season while scoring five goals and conceding nine times. Tottenham has also thrived against the lesser teams in the EPL but have struggled against the top notch competition. Since the beginning of 2018-19 campaign, the Spurs are just 2W-3D-7L in their twelve matches against Big Six sides while scoring 14 times and conceding 19 goals. And in their last seven road matches against Big Six teams in the EPL, Tottenham is just 1W-2D-4L. Liverpool will be anxious to get a decisive win after seeing their perfect EPL campaign scathed with the draw last week at Manchester United. The Reds are very tough back at home at Anfield where they have won all four of their matches while outscoring these opponents by a 12 to 4 margin. Liverpool is 21W-2D-0L in their last twenty-three matches at home in EPL play. And in their last six matches at home against Big Six sides, the Reds have won five of those matches with just one draw while outscoring these opponents by a 15 to 4 margin.
FINAL TAKE: Tottenham is without their top flight goaltender, Hugo Lloris, who is out the rest of 2019 with an injury. Liverpool is fully committed to winning the EPL championship after defeating Tottenham for the Champions League title last spring in those finals. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Liverpool (200034) minus the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200033). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-19 |
Arsenal +0.5 v. Manchester United |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200045) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200046). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W3-D2-L1) enters this seventh week of the English Premier League season coming off a 3-2 victory over Aston Villa last Sunday. Manchester United (W2-D2-L2) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss at West Ham last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United is a M*A*S*H unit right now — they are ravaged with injuries. The Red Devils opened the season with plenty of optimism after a dominant 4-0 victory at home against Chelsea. The scoring combination of manager’s Gunnar Solskjaer’s young forwards Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial offered optimism for this side this season. But Martial has not played since Week Three after he suffered a thigh injury that has kept him off the pitch for over a month. Rashford suffered a groin injury last week that pulled him off the pitch after 60 minutes in their loss to West Ham — he has been declared out for this match. And then a sprained ankle to star midfielder Paul Pogba on Wednesday in their Caribou Cup match with Rochdale leaves him very much in doubt for this match. With the Red Devils top three offensive players likely out for this match, who is going to score for Solskjaer? This is an opportunity for Mason Greenwood at forward yet he has only played 47 minutes this season — and he has not registered a point nor an assist in that time in his first year on the roster. Solskjaer was already dealing with a host of injuries headlined by defenseman Luke Shaw has not played since Week Three when he left the pitch with a hamstring injury. Familiar names like Alexis Sanchez and Chris Smalling were loaned out for the year with the expectation of the youth movement taking hold. The fact is that this is a roster of a second-tier team — and that assumes that mostly everyone is healthy. It is telling that the Red Devils could only manage a 1-1 draw with an underwhelming Rochdale side despite the match being played at home at Old Trafford. West Ham surgically tore Man United apart last week. As it is, the Red Devils were just W1-D4-L4 against fellow Big Six teams last year while scoring only eight times and allowing 18 goals. And on their home pitch last season against the Big Six teams, Man United was winless with a W0-D3-L2 mark with just three goals and eight goals conceded. This is an organization that collapsed under the weight of their moody manager Jose Mourinho last fall. They finished in sixth place to end the season in large part because they feasted on the lesser teams in the league. But those accomplishments still required their best players to healthy. Arsenal is dealing with their own health issues Alexandre Lacazette out with an ankle injury. And it does not help that Ainsley Maitland-Niles is suspended for this game after he was issued a red card in their victory over Aston Villa last week. The Gunners deserve credit for rallying from a 2-1 deficit despite playing with only ten men on the pitch given that red card penalty late in the first half. The best two players on the pitch for this match — by far — will be Arsenal’s forward, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and midfielder, Nicolas Pepe. Aubameyang scored 22 times last season and has already scored six goals this year with his game-winner at the 84-minute mark last Sunday in that win over the Villains. The Gunners were then in fine form midweek with their 5-0 win over Nottingham Forest in Caribou Cup action. Arsenal is W1-D1-L1 in their three matches on the road this year with a 3-1 loss to Liverpool sandwiched by a 1-0 win over Newcastle and a 2-2 draw with Watford. Last year, the Gunners were W7-D4-L8 in their nineteen road matches. And they fared better than Man United against Big Six sides last year with a W3-D3-L4 overall record.
FINAL TAKE: These are similar teams in that they are two Big Six organizations that are in rebuild mode having taken a step (or two) back from Manchester City and Liverpool. But the Gunners are still relatively healthy and probably six months ahead of schedule in their reorganization after moving on from their longtime manager Arsene Wagner to bring in Emery last summer. Keeping Solskjaer seemed to be a stop-gap measure this summer after he was able to coax better efforts from players like Pogba and Rashford after Mourinho was sacked. What is the Red Devils plan with those two players (and Martial) unavailable? Arsenal will have a significant talent edge in this match after defeating them by a 2-0 score at home after earning a 2-2 draw against them in their two EPL matches last season. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Arsenal (200045) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200046). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-19 |
Manchester United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200066) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200065). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw in their opening match last week against Leicester City. Manchester United (W1-D0-L0) looks to build off the momentum of their 4-0 victory over Chelsea last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves parked the proverbial bus on the road last week to pull out the one-point result against the Foxes. Now Wolverhampton returns home to Molineaux where they were very tough to beat last season — and manager Nuno Espirito Santo is comfortable with having his team play more aggressively on the pitch. The Wolves were W10-D4-L5 in their nineteen home matches last season. They also closed out the EPL campaign last year by going W6-D2-L0 in their last eight matches at home where they scored 16 goals and surrendered just six goals. Wolverhampton was also a giant killer last season — they were W7-D4-L4 in their fifteen matches against the Big Six teams while going W3-D1-L2 in their six home matches against these top six sides. Man United is feeling very good about themselves after their clean sheet blowout victory over Chelsea. But that match was much closer on the pitch than that final score suggests. The Red Devils could have easily surrendered two or three goals in that contest. The Blues controlled possession for 53.8% of that match while outshooting them by an 18 to 11 margin (7 to 5 with shots on target). Frankly, outside the first 20 minutes in their match yesterday with Leicester City, Chelsea has looked very vulnerable this season. Now Man United goes on the road away from Old Trafford where they were not nearly as good. The Red Devils were W9-D3-L7 in their nineteen matches on the road last season while only outscoring those opponents by a 32 to 29 margin. Man United was just W0-D1-L3 in their last four matches on the road in the EPL last year.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton comes off a 4-0 victory last Thursday in Europa League action while managing to rest their key starters for this match. The Wolves were W2-D1-L0 in their three matches against Man United last season with their last meeting being a 2-1 victory at home against the Red Devils back on April 2nd. Don’t be surprised if Wolverhampton wins this match straight-up. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200066) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-09-19 |
Norwich City v. Liverpool -2 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
115 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Liverpool (20002) minus the Goal-Line versus Norwich City (20001). Liverpool (W0-D0-L0) hosts the opening match of the 2019-20 English Premier League at their Anfield Stadium. Norwich City (W0-D0-L0) is one of the three promoted teams to be entering the EPL this season.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Norwich City earned their promotion to the EPL by winning the Championship League last year with 94 points after being projected to finish mid-table at the beginning of the year. The Canaries have an excellent manager in Daniel Farke who oversaw a dramatic improvement in his club in his second year with the team. Their Sporting Director, Stuart Webber, made it a point this summer to not make the mistake that Fulham made last year by spending lots of money in the transfer window with the goal of upgrading the team to then only see them relegated again by finishing in the bottom three in the EPL table. Instead, Webber signed extension contracts to the core group of his young players with the hopes of laying the foundation of a multiple-year run in the EPL. That might be the prudent choice — but that does not bode well for this team in their early matches. This Norwich City group lacks big names and top-level experience so they will likely be overmatched by the reigning European Champions League champions. Many managers would then play to park the proverbial bus in back to play a cautious game — but that is not the style of Farke who likes to see his team attack in his 4-2-3-1 formation. The average score for the Canaries last season averaged 3.26 combined goals scored per game which is the highest number for a promoted side entering the EPL in the last ten seasons. The Norwich City defense was a bit leaky last year with their fullbacks, Jamal Lewis and Max Aarons, empowered to creep up the pitch to support the attack. The Canaries surrendered 57 goals last year which was more than even a Stoke City side that finished in 16th place in the Championship League. Only four teams allowed more goals on Set Pieces as well — and they make their debut against the brilliant Jurgen Klopp who drew up seventeen Set Piece goals for the Reds last season. And given their lacking quality in the center of the field with their midfield, Liverpool’s outstanding trio of scorers in Mohamad Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino is primed to have a field day against this team that will be experiencing a dramatic uptick in the quality of their typical opponent. Salah and Mane tied for the Golden Boot Award for the most goals scored in the EPL with 22 — and Firmino added another 12 goals himself. The 89 goals scored by the Reds were the second-most in the EPL. But what made Klopp’s team special was their continued improved play on defense as they led the EPL by allowing only 22 goals — and this is why I prefer laying the goal-line with the favorites in this match rather than taking the Over because Liverpool may very well earn a clean sheet in this opening match. The Reds were a dominant W17-D2-L0 in their nineteen matches at home last year in the EPL where they scored 55 goals while conceding just 10 times. Liverpool was also dominant against the non-Big Six teams in the league where they were W24-D3-L0 with 72 goals scored and just 14 goals allowed. The numbers were even more pronounced in the fourteen matches that Liverpool hosted one of the teams that finished in the bottom fourteen sides (apart from the Power Six franchises) as they were W13-D1-L0 against these teams while scoring 72 times and conceding just seven times for a dominating 3.07-0.50 averaging final score. The Pool Boys won seven of these fourteen matches against non-Big Six teams at home by at least three goals with two more of those matches being settled by two goals.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has also been the fastest starting team in the EPL under Klopp. The Reds have scored 11 combined goals in their last three opening weekends to the new EPL season. They should be amped to make a statement in this premier spot on Friday that opens the new season with their sights clearly on getting over the top to win their first EPL championship in three decades. Norwich has surrendered 24 combined goals in their last six meetings with Liverpool teams that were not as potent as this current group. 25* EPL Friday Afternoon NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Liverpool (20002) minus the Goal-Line versus Norwich City (20001). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-19 |
Algeria v. Senegal |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Algeria (235605) with the goal-line versus Senegal (235606) in the Finals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Algeria (W5-1D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Africa Cup of Nations on Sunday with their 2-1 win over Nigeria. Senegal (W5-D0-L1) joined them in this championship match with their 1-0 win over Tunisia on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE ALGERIA WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Algeria has been the best overall team in this tournament with five wins decided in the 90 minute regulation time. The lone blemish on the Desert Foxes record in this tournament was a 1-1 result with the Ivory Coast in the Quarterfinals which they won via penalty kicks. The 12 goals that Algeria scored in their six matches is the most of any competitor in this AFCON. Algeria’s defensive has also been stout as they have surrendered only two goals in those six matches. Their +10 net goal differential is best of all the teams in this tournament. This Algerian side has star power with their talisman being Riyad Mahrez who currently plays for Manchester City and who starred on the Leicester City team that won the English Premier League a few years ago. The Desert Foxes will certainly be hungry after missing out on the 2018 World Cup last summer — and they have not won the Africa Cup of Nations in twenty-nine years. This national program turned things around last November when they hired their former midfielder, Djamel Belmadi, to take over the managing duties. Algeria is unbeaten in their eleven matches since under Belmadi’s guidance. This is a solid group that has no obvious weaknesses. They also demonstrated championship mettle by scoring on the what was the final play of their match against Nigeria on Sunday when Mahrez netted a spectacular free-kick just outside the box. Senegal scored on an own goal in the 100th minute which made the winning difference in their Semifinals match against Tunisia. Scoring is an issue for this side with the Lions of Teranga having not scored a goal from one of their own players 2 hours and 21 minutes of play. Sadio Mane is their only player to find the back of the net only once — and the Liverpool star has shown the physical effects of carrying his national team in the Knockout Stage as he has looked like he was lacking energy at times. Senegal is also undermanned in this championship match. They were already missing their top goaltender, Eduard Mendy, who is dealing with an injury. Now they will be without their best backline player in the 6’5 Kalidou Coulibaly who is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Sunday.
FINAL TAKE: Algeria defeated Senegal by a 1-0 score when these two teams faced off in the second Group Stage match back on June 27th. I do not think that the Lions of Teranga gets their revenge this afternoon. The Desert Foxes are a better team now three weeks later while playing with more confidence. Senegal, on the other hand, has a tiring Mane along with being without one of their best players in Koulibaly. Finally, Algeria has the geographical and likely crowd advantage with this match taking place in neighboring Egypt. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Match of the Year with Algeria (235605) with the goal-line versus Senegal (235606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-19 |
Nigeria v. Algeria |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Algeria (235798) with the Goal-Line versus Nigeria (235797) in the Semifinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Algeria (W4-D1-L0) reached the Semifinals of this tournament with their victory over the Ivory Coast on Thursday via Penalty Kicks by a 4-3 margin after a 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play. Nigeria (W4-D0-L1) punched their ticket to the Semifinals on Wednesday with their 2-1 win over South Africa.
REASONS TO TAKE ALGERIA WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Algeria has a good argument to make that they have been the most impressive team so far in this tournament. Their match with the Ivory Coast was the first time they had not earned an outright victory in the 90 minute regulation time which includes an impressive 1-0 victory over another Semifinalist side in Senegal in the Group Stage of this tournament. The Desert Foxes have scored ten times in this event while conceding just once in their Quarterfinals match. Their +9 net goal differential is best of all the teams in this tournament. This Algerian side has star power with their talisman being Riyad Mahrez who currently plays for Manchester City and who starred on the Leicester City team that won the English Premier League a few years ago. The Desert Foxes will certainly be hungry after missing out on the 2018 World Cup last summer — and they have not won the Africa Cup of Nations in twenty-nine years. This national program turned things around last November when they hired their former midfielder, Djamel Belmadi, to take over the managing duties. Algeria is unbeaten in their eleven matches since under Belmadi’s guidance. This is a solid group that has no obvious weaknesses. Nigeria has the pedigree having won the AFCON three times in program history — but this is their first time competing for the continental championship since 2013. The Super Eagles competed in last summer’s World Cup where they defeated Iceland while losing to Croatia and then Argentina in a crucial final Group Stage match. Nigeria has been underwhelming in this event. They rested players in their third Group Stage match against Madagascar in a 2-0 upset loss— but they still should have overwhelmed that island nation that entered this tournament ranked 108th in the world by FIFA. The Super Eagles then had to rally from a 2-1 deficit to defeat Cameroon in the Round of 16 before experiencing some nervy moments on Wednesday against South Africa before scoring the winning goal in the 89th minute. Nigeria has an impressive group of forwards — but their seven combined goals in this tournament are still three goals behind the Algerians. The bigger concern for this team is their backline that tends to make mistakes. Their ability to handle set-pieces was highlighted in my notes for that group for last summer’s World Cup. The Super Eagles have conceded five goals in this tournament which the exact amount that the other three Semifinalists have allowed combined.
FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams — but Algeria won the last meeting in November of 2017 when they defeated the Super Eagles by a 3-0 score in a World Cup qualifying match. Algeria has looked more impressive than Nigeria in this tournament. The Desert Foxes will also enjoy a geographical advantage with a likely partisan crowd with neighboring Egypt serving as the host nation for this tournament. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Semifinals Match of the Year with Algeria (235798) with the Goal-Line versus Nigeria (235797). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-19 |
South Africa v. Nigeria -0.25 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Nigeria (235781) minus the Goal-Line versus South Africa (235782) in the Quarterfinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W3-D0-L1) won their Round of 16 Knockout Stage match on Saturday with their 3-2 win over Cameroon. South Africa (W2-D0-L2) pulled off a big upset against host nation Egypt on Saturday with their 1-0 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE NIGERIA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: South Africa’s victory over Egypt make speak more to the state of the Pharaohs that it does the strength of this Bafana Bafana side. While Egypt won all three of their Group Stage matches, they were far from impressive in those contests — especially for a group that had the benefit of competing in last summer’s World Cup. Furthermore, their Talisman, Mohamad Salah was under the weather for that match on Saturday after recovering from a cold. Salah is not only Egypt’s best player but the clear best player in this tournament after leading Liverpool to a Champions League title for the 2018-19 campaign. The Pharaohs played nervously against the South Africans as they were clearly afraid to disappoint their home fans. Home field is not always an advantage in international soccer. South Africa is a well-coached group led by the veteran English manager Stuart Baxter. Bafana Bafana is a young and energetic group that focus on defensive tactics with opportunistic counter attacks. But this is also a group that has scored only two goals in their four matches in this tournament. And they only had one victory in Group Stage play over a weak Nambia side while listing to both the Ivory Coast and Morocco. The flip side of the South African youth is their inexperience. And this is a national program that is now a powerhouse in the continent. South Africa competed in the 2010 World Cup as an automatic qualifier as the host nation. They missed the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations but competed in the 2015 event. Frankly, this is a team looking to build to qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar — and this group may be quite content with their accomplishment of upsetting Egypt as a +1.0 dog. Nigeria has higher aspirations so lift the AFCON championship trophy for the fourth time in their nation’s history again for the first time since 2013. The Super Eagles played their best 45 minutes of this tournament in the second half to rally from a 2-1 deficit to defeat the reigning African Cup champions in Cameroon. Nigeria won their first two Group Stage matches with wins over Burundi and Guinea before suffering a surprising loss to Madagascar. While manager Gerndt Rohr did rest some key players in that third match with their place in the Knockout State clinched, that setback may have served as a wake-up call for this group to step up their play. This is one of the most talented teams in Africa with a handful of players with English Premier League experience. The Super Eagles competed in last summer’s World Cup where they defeated Iceland while losing to the second-place finishers in Croatia and losing a decisive 2-1 match to Argentina and Lionel Messi that determined the second-place finisher advancing out of that Group D. Nigeria has a talented group of forwards who tend to get lost with their EPL teams — but players like the 23-year-old Alex Iwobi (Arsenal) and Odion Ighalo (whose three goals is tied for most in this tournament) usually play their best when donning the uniform of their national team.
FINAL TAKE: There is little chance that Nigeria will be taking South Africa lightly considered that lost to them by a 2-0 score in June of 2017 in qualifiers for this tournament before earning a 1-1 draw in Johannesburg in a qualifier rematch last November 17th. The Super Eagles have only lost once in their last eleven matches overall — and they have reached the Semifinals in their last five appearances when playing in this tournament. Nigeria holds a talent and experience edge over South Africa that should overwhelm them in this match. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Nigeria (235781) minus the Goal-Line versus South Africa (235782). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-19 |
Tunisia v. Ghana |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Ghana (235774) with the Goal-Line versus Tunisia (235773) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Ghana (W1-D2-L0) finished in first place in their group last Tuesday when they defeated Guinea-Bissau by a 2-0 score. Tunisia (W0-D3-L0) qualified for the Knockout Stage of this event when they pulled off their third straight draw in this tournament with the 0-0 result with Mauritania.
REASONS TO TAKE GHANA WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Ghana’s results in this event look better after Benin upset one of the favorites to win this tournament in Morocco over the weekend. The Black Stars opened this Afcon with a 2-2 draw with Benin. They then played another of the favorites to win this event in Cameroon to a 0-0 draw before earning their victory on Tuesday which gave them 5 points in the Group which was good enough for first place. Ghana is one of the perennial powers in Africa with four African Cup champions. The Black Stars made it to the Quarterfinals of the 2010 World Cup. Then in the 2014 World Cup, Ghana had one draw with two losses in Group Stage play (including a 2-1 loss to the US) but did not advance to the Knockout Stage. After failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, this is a hungry national team looking to make their mark once again in the continent. They are led by Ayew brothers in Jordan and Andre with the former playing for Crystal Palace in the English Premier League and the latter serving as captain for the team while anchoring their midfield. Tunisia did compete in last summer’s World Cup where they finished with one win over Panama and two losses to England and Belgium in what was a brutal group. They played the Three Lions tough in a 2-1 loss in their opening match. That was the Eagles of Carthage’s first World Cup since 2006 — and they have only won the Africa Cup of Nations once. Tunisia has looked shaky in this tournament with three draws against the not overwhelming competition in Angola and Mali before their scoreless draw with Mauritania on Tuesday. There were a number of nervy moments against that Mauritania group that they were a full -1.0 goal favorite against. Their star player, Wabi Al-Khazri, is not playing at full strength given a muscle injury — but it looks like he will try to take the pitch in this important knockout match.
FINAL TAKE: Tunisia has only scored twice in their three matches in this tournament. The Eagles of Carthage have also lost their last five Knockout Stage matches in the African Cup. With Ghana improving in each one of their matches, it is likely that the worst case scenario for them is a tied match after 90 minutes but with a good chance that they earn the victory after regulation time. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 Match of the Year with Ghana (235774) with the Goal-Line versus Tunisia (235773). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
United States v. Mexico |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Mexico (234226) with the goal-line versus the United States (234225) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) remained unbeaten in the 2019 Gold Cup after they defeated Jamaica in the Semifinals of this tournament by a 3-1 score. Mexico (W4-D1-L0) made it to the championship of this event when they defeated Haiti on Tuesday by a 1-0 score. This match is being played in Chicago’s Soldier Field.
REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The United States had not conceded a goal in this tournament before the Reggae Boyz broke that seal in the 69th minute of that match. Jamaica is a defensive-oriented team who had to push their aggressiveness after falling behind by a 2-0 score. The Stars and Stripes have played a group of teams in this tournament who tend to play back to defend which choosing their battles with counter attacks — and they have largely avoided the better CONCACAF teams. Mexico and Costa Rica are the other top two teams in the North and Central America and the Stars and Stripes avoided both teams before this championship match. The US was able to avenge a loss to Trinidad and Tobago who beat them in October of 2017 to ruin their hopes to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia. The US also defeated Panama in the group stage but that was a match where both teams were able to use a number of substitutes since both teams had already qualified for the quarterfinals. The Stars and Stripes then had a favorable draw in the quarterfinals against an overachieving Curacao team before being tested by the Jamaicans in the semifinals. That match on Wednesday saw some unusual circumstances with a one-hour weather delay after lightning struck in the area changed the dynamic of that match. That victory was the best effort this team has had under new head coach Gregg Berhalter in the eleven matches he has managed this group. But the United States may suffer a letdown now in a match where they will be considered the underdog. The USMNT limped into this tournament with two straight losses to Venezuela and Jamaica by 3-0 and 1-0 scores. Concerns from those matches regarded the center backs for the Americans’ back line which is an area that this Mexico team can expose. This will be the most aggressive opponent they will have faced in this event against this Mexico team that likes to play on their front foot. Rookie manager Gregg Berhalter has this team playing more ambitiously as well by implementing a counter pressing attack. Mexico is led by forward Raul Jimenez who had a breakout season for Wolverhampton in the English Premier League after scoring thirteen goals in thirty-eight matches. While the roster that manager Tito Martino has put together does not include some of the key members from last summer’s World Cup team that made the knockout stage, the depth of talent at the disposal to the Mexican national team is a strength. El Tri has their captain, Andres Guadardo, patrolling the midfield for this group as well as their outstanding goalkeeper, Guillermo Ochoa, on the pitch. Mexico seemed uninspired on Tuesday in their 1-0 victory over Haiti. Perhaps the team lacked the spark that Martino provides them on the sidelines since he was relegated to observing the game in an upstairs box after being suspended for this match.
FINAL TAKE: El Tri will be inspired to not only win this tournament but defeat the United States on American soil with this match being played in Soldier Field in Chicago. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Mexico (234226) with the goal-line versus the United States (234225) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
Peru +1.5 v. Brazil |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Peru (234405) plus the Goal-Line versus Brazil (234406) in the Finals of the 2019 Copa America. THE SITUATION: Peru (W2-D2-L1) reached the Finals of this tournament on Thursday with their upset 3-0 win over Chile. Brazil (W3-D2-L0) made it to the championship match of this event with a 2-0 win over Argentina.
REASONS TO TAKE PERU PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: At first glance, this might look like an easy assignment for Brazil as they look to win this tournament on home soil against a team that they defeated back on June 22nd in this tournament by a 5-0 score. But I hate this situation for the Selecao. First, their victory over Argentina was less decisive as that score indicated. Lionel Messi felt as if his team was completely jobbed by officials that were ruling for the Brazilians in almost every close call. While Brazil has not allowed a goal in this tournament, they have not been dominant with their play on the pitch. They have experienced two very shaky scoreless draws with Venezuela and then Paraguay in the Quarterfinals. They advanced to the Semifinals only because they won via penalty kicks by a 4-3 margin. Second, with their listless first-half effort in their opening match with Bolivia where they went into the locker room in a nil-nil game, the Brazilian fans have booed their national team in three of their matches due to underwhelming play. Their supporters still remember their humiliating 7-0 loss to Germany on home soil in the Semifinals of the 2014 World Cup. While home field is usually an advantage, this could become a tempest of trouble for the Selecao if things get nervy with the Peruvians. Manager Tite status with the club is also in doubt with the program considering making a change. Brazil did crush Peru by a 5-0 score — but Los Incas were in a good spot to make the Quarterfinals anyways after defeating Bolivia and earning a draw with Venezuela. This Peru roster is a young group that consists essentially of the same group of players that competed in last summer’s World Cup. Los Incas defeated Australia last summer while the eventual champion, France, to a competitive 1-0 score. Consistency has been an issue for this group that hopes to be peaking in four years — but an upset victory over Brazil would go a long way for their confidence. Peru has proven their mettle by responding to that 5-0 loss to Brazil by defeating two of the top national programs in South America and CONMEBOL with their victory over Uruguay and then the two-time reigning champions in Chile.
FINAL TAKE: Peru will be very motivated to redeem themselves from their 5-0 loss to Brazil — while the host nation may not be able to stop themselves from thinking they already won this tournament when they silenced Messi on Tuesday. 25* Copa America Match of the Year with Peru (234405) plus the Goal-Line versus Brazil (234406). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. USA (W) -1 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the United States (225914) minus the Goal-Line versus the Netherlands (225913). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (W6-D0-L0) reached the Finals of the Women’s World Cup with their 1-0 victory over Sweden on Wednesday. The United States (W6-D0-L0) advanced to this championship match on Tuesday with their 2-1 victory over England.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNITED STATES MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: While the United States has won their three Group Stage matches by 2-1 scores, I think they win this one by more than one goal. The Netherlands are unbeaten in this World Cup after they defeated Sweden by a 1-0 score on Wednesday. The Dutch have won nine outright nine of their last ten matches with the only flaw on that resume being a 1-1 draw against China in Algarve Cup in March. But manager Sarina Wiegman’s team has a situational disadvantage in this match. The Netherlands needed an extra 30 minutes of play to resolve that match with the Swedes after that game remained scoreless after 90 minutes of play. Not only do the Orange Lionesses have one less day of rest to recuperate for this match but they played an additional 30 minutes than the American women did on Tuesday. This has been a nice run for the Netherlands but they have enjoyed a favorable schedule en route to this championship match. Their victories over Sweden and Japan in the knockout stage were against teams that have had stronger groups in the past. Their victory over Italy in the semifinals was against a national team that will be more of a threat in 2023. Even their Euro championship two summers is ago has the asterisk of the Dutch being the host country of that event. The United States has endured a tougher road in their ambition to defend their 2015 World Cup championship. Defeating the host nation France in the quarterfinals before their 2-1 victory over an England in the semifinals on Tuesday who ranked third in the world by FIFA are both probably bigger accomplishments than any of the Netherlands victories in this tournament. This Stars and Stripes team is one goal away from tying the Women’s World Cup record for the most goals scored in one tournament. The US has won eleven World Cup matches in a row while going unbeaten in their last sixteen World Cup matches with thirteen victories and three draws. The USA has only lost once in their last forty four matches with five draws and thirty eight victories. It remains unclear if Megan Rapinoe will be able to play in this match after she missed the semifinals match with a hamstring injury. But one of the strengths of the USWNT is their depth. Christen Press took her place on the pitch on Tuesday and scored the first goal of the match in the 10th minute. That was the sixth straight time in this tournament that the US scored in the first ten minutes of the match.
FINAL TAKE: Too much firepower for this US team that will likely strike first in this match to take the Netherlands out of their defensive stance. Look for the Americans to score early and often against the Dutch. 10* Women’s World Cup Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with the United States (225914) minus the Goal-Line versus the Netherlands (225913). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-19 |
Sweden (W) +1 v. England (W) |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Sweden (225909) plus the Goal-Line versus England (225910) in the Third Place match of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W4-D0-L2) lost their Semifinals match with the Netherlands on Wednesday by a 1-0 score that required an additional 30 minutes of extra time to resolve after being scoreless after the first 90 minutes. England (W5-D0-L1) looks to bounce-back from their 2-1 loss to the United States on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The conventional wisdom regarding this match is that the Swedes are behind the proverbial eight-ball having played 120 minutes a day after England lost to the United States in 90 minutes. But that is one of the main reasons why the Blue and Yellow are getting the valuable +0.5 goals for this match which will pay off if this match is tied after 90 minutes of play. Manager Peter Gerhardsson will likely make more changes in this match — as he did in their Group Stage match with the United States. But England skipper Phil Neville is also planning on making several changes to his starting XI — and he will not have the services of starting central defender, Millie Bright, who is suspended for this match after receiving a second yellow card in their loss to the Stars and Stripes. Sweden also gets fresh legs for this contest with the return of forward Friolina Rolfo who was suspended for the match with the Dutch. The Blue and Yellow have a deep roster so the rotations will not trigger a downturn in quality. This should be a very motivated group of players who will be playing this match as the last hurrah for a golden generation of players who are now in their 30s. This roster may seem some turnover for the 2021 Euro Championship that this England team will host. But for players like the 34-year old Caroline Seger and Nilla Fischer along with the 36-year old Hedvig Lindhal, this match is an opportunity to cement the Swedish legacy of being the third-best women’s team in the world since Lindhal played on the 2003 team that finished in second place in that World Cup. Sweden lost in the Round of 16 in the 2015 World Cup to Germany before losing in the Quarterfinals to the eventual winner in the Netherlands in the 2017 Euro — so this match provides the opportunity to put an exclamation point on this campaign. The Blue and Yellow finished in second place in the 2016 Olympics. This is England’s third straight Semifinals appearance in a major international tournament after winning the Third Place match in the 2015 World Cup before losing to the Netherlands in the Semifinals of the 2017 Euro. The allure of finishing in third place rather than fourth place may not be quite as tempting for the Three Lionesses this time around. And don’t underestimate the emotional toll this team suffered from after their deflating loss to the United States in a match they thought they could win en route to winning their first Women’s World Cup.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden has dominated England in head-to-head matches over the years as they own a W11-D4-L2 mark against the Three Lionesses in their seventeen matches across all competitions. The Swedes have also won their two Third Place matches in the Women’s World Cup after defeating Germany in the consolation match in 1991 before defeating France to claim the Third Place trophy in 2011. I handicap Sweden to be slightly better than this England team — so the opportunity to take them +0.5/+1.0 goals even considering the risk of their fatigue. 25* Women’s World Cup Match of the Year with Sweden (225909) plus the Goal-Line versus England (225910) in the Third Place match of the Women’s World Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-03-19 |
United States v. Jamaica +1 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Jamaica (234222) plus the Goal-Line versus the United States (234221) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (2W-2D-0L) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament. with their 1-0 victory over Panama on Sunday. The USMNT (4W-0D-0L) joined them in the Semifinals later that night with a 1-0 victory over Curacao. This match will be played in Nashville’s Nissan Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The United States were -2.5 goal favorites on Sunday against the island nation of Curacao. This Stars and Stripes team lacks energy and team chemistry. Perhaps the flip side of having talented young players like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie who play professionally in the English Premier League and Bundesliga respectively is that they have difficulty going through the motions when playing in this minor international tournament. We had Curacao in that match as a big underdog because they play with cohesion and purpose — and they dominated the pitch in the second half of the match. Curacao controlled possession for 60% of the second half while outshooting the Americans and putting three shots on target to just one by the US. Overall, Curacao won the possession battle by a 53% margin while outshooting the US by a 15-13 margin and getting five shots on target as compared to the three shots on target for the Stars and Stripes. This team has the look and feel of the group that simply expected good things to happen when they traveled to Trinidad and Tobago in November of 2017 where they just needed a draw to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. They now face a Jamaica side who is — by far — the best team they will have faced in this tournament. The Reggae Boyz are playing the stout defense that has helped them reach the Finals of the last two Gold Cups. They have surrendered only three goals in this tournament. Jamaica has won five of their last nine matches — going 5W-3D-1L over that span while scoring 12 times. They are happy to grind out a low scoring match where their speed can take advantage of mismatches to create scoring opportunities on the counter-attack. The US has yet to surrender a goal in this tournament but that speaks more to the quality of their competition that it does abut improved play from a group that looked shaky entering this event.
FINAL TAKE: The USMNT defeated Jamaica in the 2017 Gold Cup by a 2-1 score — but the Reggae Boys won the last meeting between these two teams in a friendly back on June 5th by a 1-0 score. I would be very surprised if the US wins this match by more than one goal. I will not be surprised if Jamaica pulls the upset — and I find the chances of this match still be deadlocked after 90 minutes to be pretty high. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinals Match of the Year with Jamaica (234222) plus the Goal-Line versus the United States (234221) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-03-19 |
Sweden (W) +0.5 v. Netherlands (W) |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Sweden (225905) plus the Goal-Line versus Netherlands (225906) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (4W-0D-1L) looks to build off their 2-1 win over Germany last Saturday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. The Netherlands (5W-0D-0L) reached the Semifinals on Saturday as well with their 2-0 victory over Italy.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Sweden displayed grit and resolve by allowing the Germans to take a 1-0 lead in the 16th minute of the match but leveling the score at 1-1 just six minutes later. The Blue and Yellow then seized the 2-1 lead in the third minute of the second half. The Swedes flexed their muscles on defense by not allowing the Germans to score a tying goal for the remaining time in the second half consisting of more than 40 minutes. Germany had been a thorn in Sweden’s side for years as they lost to Die Nationalist in both the Round of 16 in the 2015 World Cup as a well as the Gold Medal round of the 2016 Summer Olympics. Will the Blue and Yellow now suffer an emotional letdown from finally defeating Germany in a high profile international match? Or, will the Swedes feel emboldened from this accomplishment and build off the momentum of that victory? I suspect it will be the latter. It certainly helps that Sweden is once again considered the underdog when facing the 2017 Euro Champions. This is the last hurrah for a golden generation of Swedish players who now in their 30s. Caroline Seger is 34-years old while defenders Nilla Fischer and Linda Sembrandt is 34 and 32-years old. Their legendary starting goaltender who debuted on the Swedes’ 2003 World Cup team is 36-years old. There is a good argument to be made that the Blue and Yellow have been the third best national program in the world since their second place finish in that 2003 World Cup to the Germans and the Unties States. And perhaps manager Peter Gerhardsson’s decision to rotate seven players in their Group Stage match with the US will turn out to be inspired if it put them on the other side of the bracket away from host nation France with an impending rematch in the Finals against what could be an overconfident American side? The Swedes are stout defensively as they have surrendered only four goals in this tournament with three of them coming against the US and Germany. The Netherlands overwhelmed an upstart Italian side that clearly got tired and depleted in the hot temperatures on Saturday. This will be the most difficult test for the Orange Lionesses in this tournament. Their Round of 16 encounter with Japan was probably their most challenging match — and the Dutch were outplayed for most of the second half of that game. The Netherlands won that match when a controversial handball was called in the waning moments of that match which afforded Lieke Martens to score the winning goal via a penalty kick in the 90th minute. The Dutch enjoyed a geographical advantage in the Quarterfinals as well with that match taking place in Valenciennes which is two hours from the Dutch border. And remember that their 2017 Euro Championship was aided by being the host nation of that event.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams met in the Quarterfinals of the 2017 Euro with the Netherlands taking advantage of playing on home soil by earning a 2-0 victory. The Orange Lionesses have taken full advantage of a handful of fortunate situations — but they may have run out of good luck this afternoon. I think Sweden wins this match outright — but take the enormously valuable goal-line in this situation for some insurance. 25* Women’s World Cup FS1-TV Match of the Year with Sweden (225905) plus the Goal-Line versus Netherlands (225906). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-19 |
USA (W) v. England (W) +0.75 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-55 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing England (225902) plus the Goal-Line versus the United States (225901) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World. THE SITUATION: The USWNT (5W-0D-0L) defeated France by a 2-1 score on Friday in that Quarterfinals showdown. England (5W-0D-0L) reached the Semifinals on Thursday when they defeated Norway by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The United States’ showdown with France with the match played in Paris was deemed by many observers as the de-facto Finals of the 2019 World Cup. With that victory — along with the upset loss the next day by a Germany team that was ranked 2nd in the nation — the Stars and Stripes might not be able to prevent an emotional letdown for this Semifinals match. Yet the Americans were fortunate that Les Bleus did not level that match at 2-2 which would have made things very nervy when playing in front of a partisan French crowd. After not allowing a shot on goal in the first half, the US was dominated in the second half for much of those 45 minutes. Les Bleus managed five shots on target in that second half. They ended the game in defeat — but France controlled the time of possession by a 61% to 39% mark while attempting 20 shots which was twice as much as what the US was able to accomplish. On paper, the USA looks like an offensive juggernaut with its whopping 22 goals in this tournament. But after their 13-0 win over Thailand to begin this tournament, they have scored only nine goals in their last four matches which is much closer to England’s more modest scoring efficiency. England has scored eleven times in their five matches — but they have conceded only one time in those five contests. England is led by Lucy Bronze who is probably the best right back in the world of women’s soccer. She will be assigned to slow down Megan Rapinoe in this match — and she will have an advantage of being very familiar with the pitch with this being played in Lyon where she plays professionally. The Three Lionesses have steadily improved their play on the pitch as this tournament has moved forward as they won their two Knockout Stage matches against Cameroon and then Norway by a 6-0 margin. This England team has knocked on the door for a long time in women’s soccer. They lost in the Semifinals of the 2015 World Cup in heartbreaking fashion when Laura Bassett scored a fateful own goal in the 91st minute to gift Japan a 2-1 victory. The Three Lionesses did rebound to defeat Germany by a 1-0 score in the 3rd place consolation match. England then lost to the host nation Netherlands in the Semifinals of the 2017 Euro Championships. The program brought in former Manchester United defender, Phil Neville, to manage this team — and they did win the prestigious She Believes Cup in March under his stewardship. The biggest knock on this team has been their inner confidence — and Neville has brought a brashness that seems to have helped fill this void. With professional soccer programs in Europe finally investing in their women’s leagues, the Three Lionesses have an ample supply of talent available to them that is getting closer to the quality of the US team. And this team comes into this showdown peaking with confidence after playing their best match of the tournament with their dominating win over a quality Norway side.
FINAL TAKE: England will not be intimidated in this contest after playing the US to a 2-2 draw in that She Believes Cup back on March 2nd. The US Women’s team no longer has the aura of invincibility that helped them in previous World Cup runs. Look for a hungry Three Lionesses side to play this match very close. 10* Women’s World Cup Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with England (225902) plus the Goal-Line versus the United States (225901) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-19 |
Curacao +2 v. United States |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
105 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Curacao (234213) plus the Goal-Line versus the United States (234214) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Curacao (1W-1D-1L) registered a dramatic 1-1 draw with Jamaica last Tuesday to eke into the Quarterfinals of this tournament. The USMNT (3W-0D-0L) won first place in their group with their 1-0 win over Panama on Wednesday. This match will be played on a neutral field on Lincoln Field Park in Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE CURACAO PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Curacao needed a result in their final Group Stage match to secure second place in Group C. They surrendered an early goal to the stout defensive-minded Reggae Boyz — but this team showed grit by scoring three minutes into extra time to eke out the draw and the one point necessary to advance to the Quarterfinals. This team will be feisty underdogs in this match in what is just their second Gold Cup ever. But this roster is talented with the majority of their players playing in one of the top two professional leagues in the Netherlands which is one of the better soccer nations in Europe when it comes to the professional talent that makes their home there. This is also a young team with 20 of the 23 members on the roster being under the age of 30. Curacao made me take notice in the 2017 Gold Cup where they lost all three matches but were competitive in all three contests against tough competition that included Jamaica (who reached the Finals that year) along with Mexico. This team won the 2017 Caribbean Cup — and they were 3W—0D-1L in the CONCACAF Nation’s League Qualifiers with a +16 net goal differential which led all teams. Curacao has allowed only two goals in this tournament — and they have one of the best goalkeepers in this event in Elroy Room who stood on his head making great saves in their upset 1-0 win over Honduras in their second match. The USMNT is feeling very good about themselves again with their three Group Stage wins after limping into this tournament with 1-0 loss to Jamaica followed up by a 3-0 loss to Venezuela. I do not put too much stock in their 4-0 win over an overmatched Guyana side — nor do I think much of their 6-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago in that revenge situation. That Trinidad team simply does not have a great roster — and it was the US this time around with the home field advantage. The US played many of their bench players in the match with Panama — but so too did the Canal Men play many of their second teamers with a Quarterfinals match already secured. The Stars and Stripes have yet to allow a goal in this tournament — but there play on defense was an issue entering this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: The pressure is on the United States — big time — in this match. A loss to Curacao would not only ruin any good feelings they have built up over the last two weeks but it would leave the program even worse off than when they began with those two straight losses. While I am not picking the straight up upset, I do think Curacao keeps it close. 25* CONCACAF Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Curacao (234213) plus the Goal-Line versus the United States (234214) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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