04-09-24 |
Bayern Munich v. Arsenal -0.5 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Arsenal (224206) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224205) in the first-leg of the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Arsenal advanced from the Round of 16 in this tournament by avenging a 1-0 loss at Porto with a 1-0 victory at home against them which forced a penalty kick resolution which the Gunners won. Bayern Munich rallied from a 1-0 loss in the first leg against Porto with a 3-0 victory at home against them in the second leg.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners won for the fifth time across six competitions with a 3-0 victory against Brighton and Hove Albion in the English Premier League. Arsenal has generated four straight clean sheets in all competitions. They are in a tie with Liverpool for first place in the EPL in what is shaping up to be the closest finish in the English top flight in years with Manchester City just one point behind them both. This team exorcised some demons against a defensive-minded Porto side by winning in the knockout stage of this tournament for the first time in their last eight appearances in the Round of 16. Under manager Mikel Arteta, this team plays outstanding defense that has not allowed an opponent across all competitions to generate more than 1.5 expected goals. At home at the Emirates Stadium, the Gunners have won six straight games across all competitions while scoring 17 goals and only conceding three times during that run. Arsenal is also undefeated in their four home matches in the Champions League this season where they have scored 13 goals and have yet to concede a goal. For Bayern Munich, the season looks lost with them 16 points behind Bayer Leverkusen. Manager Thomas Tuchel already declared in February that he would not return to the squad next season. They have lost two matches in a row after blowing a 2-0 lead on Saturday in a 3-2 loss at Heidenheim in Bundesliga action. The Bavarians have only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches across all competitions. Injuries have played a role — but rumors of internal strife in the locker room and relating to Tuchel seem to have impacted the cohesion of this team. And while this team has been capable of bullying lesser opponents, they have struggled against the better teams in Germany and Europe. Bayern Munich has been vulnerable in transition on defense — and they lack an elite build-up with the ball despite being a possession team.
FINAL TAKE: Arteta is likely to take a page from Bayer Leverkusen’s tactical book against Bayern Munich from their match on February 10th. Leverkusen surprised with a defensive 5-3-2 formation that set them up to counterattack the vulnerable Bavarians' transition defense. Not only did they win by a 3-0 score but they held Bayern Munich to just 0.6 expected goals. Arsenal thrives versus high-pressing teams like the Bavarians — and Arteta demonstrated that he is content to play out of possession last month against Manchester City when they held them to under 1.0 expected goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Arsenal (224206) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224205). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-24 |
Manchester City v. Liverpool |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 11:45 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Manchester City (200117) with the goal-line versus Liverpool (200118). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W19-D5-L3) has won 13 of their last 14 matches across all competitions after their 3-1 victory at home against Manchester United in the English Premier League last Sunday. Liverpool has won seven matches in a row across all competitions including their 1-0 victory at Nottingham in the EPL last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: In the three-way race between these two clubs along with Arsenal to win the EPL title, Liverpool is likely the team whose prospects are dimmest moving forward. Granted, manager Jurgen Klopp is doing a great job with the Reds after they dropped to fifth place in the table after a disappointing 2022-23 campaign. But the Pool Boys have not been tested as much as those two other teams given their failure to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. Their 3-1 loss at Arsenal in the EPL action on February 4th is likely telling regarding where this club is relative to the elite squads in Europe. Injuries are not helping their cause in this one. Klopp is without eight players including Trent Alexander-Arnold who was thriving in a new role for the squad playing up as a midfielder rather than his defensive back role. The absences of midfielders Thiago Alcantara and Diogo Jota will also hurt in this showdown. Their outstanding keeper Alisson is also on the shelf — but they have been getting surprisingly good play from backup goaltender Caoihin Kelleher — although this matchup is a huge challenge for him now. At least Mohamed Salah is back after getting injured during the African Cup in January — but his fitness is in question after playing his first match in a month on Thursday. Liverpool plays this match at a significant situational disadvantage having to travel back from the Czech Republic after a 5-1 victory at Sparta Prague on Thursday in the second-tier (relative to the Champions League) Europe League competition. The Reds have positional weaknesses at left wing and at right defensive back. And while they have only lost one match at home at Anfield in EPL action in their last 57 matches since fans returned post-COVID, their inability to keep a clean sheet in eight of their last nine at home across all competitions raises a red flag for this showdown. Finally, the deeper metrics indicate that the Pool Boys are overachieving in league play. While they have registered 63 points, the expected points deriving from expected goals data drops to just 53.03 points. The metrics suggest that they have been rather fortunate in goal suppression as they have given up only 25 goals despite a 33.78 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Now here comes Man City who lead the EPL with 31.95 expected goals on the road despite playing one less match than Liverpool and Arsenal. Now at their healthiest as they have been all season, the Citizens have scored 12 combined goals in their last three matches after their 3-1 triumph over FC Copenhagen in the Champions League on Wednesday. Kevin DeBruyne missed the first half of the season and has only returned to the pitch in mid-January. Erling Haaland also missed time in December and January. But since the Club World Cup in December, the reigning EPL and Champions League winners are clicking on all cylinders — and they have won ten straight matches on the road in all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: At full strength, Man City remains the best club in the world — and now they face a shorthanded Liverpool squad in a crucial match in the EPL title race. Manager Pep Guardiola has fared well in his tenure with the Citizens when facing Klopp. Since 2017, Man City has a W5-D3-L1 mark in the EPL against the Reds. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Manchester City (200117) with the goal-line versus Liverpool (200118). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-23 |
England W v. Spain W |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Spain (225362) with the goal-line versus England (225361) in the finals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Spain (W5-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of the Women’s World Cup with a 2-1 victory against Sweden on Tuesday. England (W5-D1-L0) reached the finals with a 3-1 victory against Australia on Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE SPAIN WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Spain demonstrated their grit in beating a talented and experienced Sweden side in the semifinals. Salma Paralluelo, their breakout 19-year-old star, broke the scoreless deadlock with a goal in the 81st minute. But the Blue and Yellow immediately responded by leveling the score seven minutes later. Rather than playing on their heels after blowing a late lead, La Roja instead stepped up and scored the winning goal a minute later to take the match in regulation time. I have been skeptical of the Spanish women’s team to overcome their more experienced rivals — but this young team is coming into their own before our eyes. The emergence of a quality women’s program in Spain has always been the lurking giant in women’s soccer. In 2018, Spain won the Under-17 World Cup while finishing second in the Under-20 World Cup. Those players are now the core of this roster. Their tiki-taka possession tactics that invoke the wildly successful Spanish men’s team from a decade ago have been very effective in this tournament. La Roja’s 17 goals are the most in the World Cup — and their 20.1 expected goals suggest they should have generated even more goals. I have been troubled by their 4-0 loss to Japan in the Group Stage since it might have exposed a vulnerability against an opponent willing and able to play without the ball and counter-attack. I did note that while they lost by four goals, the expected goals data indicated that Japan only had a 0.9 to 0.7 excepted goals (xG) edge in that match. Certainly, manager Jorge Vilda used that losing experience to work on their tactics to neutralize the counter-attack. Spain beat Sweden by a 1.6-0.9 xG margin in the Semifinals. They also dominated the Netherlands by a 3.4-0.8 xG margin in the Quarterfinals. Both of those teams played back to counter-attack with La Roja controlling possession 60% of the time in both matches. Frankly, those two opponents presenting more of a challenge than what England has encountered. The Lionesses have had a favorable draw in the Knockout Stage with encounters against Nigeria and Colombia before the Matildas on Wednesday. While Australia is a top-ten team in the world who were playing at home, they are probably not the top-five elite program that is usually the obstacle in a semifinal showdown. England was placed in one of the easier groups as well with Haiti, Denmark, and China their opponents. So, after winning the 2022 Euro with the benefit of playing on their home soil — despite losing the xG battle in many of those matches including the finals against Germany — the Lionesses reached the finals of the World Cup despite avoiding the USA, Germany, France, Sweden, the Netherlands, Brazil, and Japan? Wow. They lost the xG battle against Australia by a 1.4 to 1.3 margin — and they lost the xG battle to Nigeria by a 1.2-0.9 score in the Round of 16. Overall, England has a +5.0 net expected goals differential in this tournament — and Spain’s +16.8 net xG differential overwhelms that mark. Despite my concerns about La Roja’s defense, their 3.4 expected goals allowed (xGA) is a better mark than the Lionesses’ 5.0 xGA. Not only is England’s strength of schedule in this event in question, this will be the first time they face an opponent who will press high and seek to control possession as aggressively as the Spanish women. The Lioness' manager Sarina Wiegman is one of the best tactical minds in the world (man or woman) — but the talent edge goes to La Roja.
FINAL TAKE: With Aitana Bonmati and Alexia Putellas as two of the best female players in the world combined with the rising star that is Paralluelo (who also scored the winning goal against the Netherlands), Spain probably has the better talent on the pitch in this one. And they will be motivated to avenge a 2-1 loss to England in a de-facto road match in the Round of 16 in last year’s Euro Championship. That match did go into extra time before the Lionesses scored the winning second goal. La Roja won the xG battle in that one as well with a 1.6-1.3 xG edge. The analytics say Spain is the better team — and I suspect their time is now getting this rematch in a true neutral environment in Sydney, Australia. 20* Women’s World Cup England-Spain Fox-TV Special with Spain (225362) with the goal-line versus England (225361). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-23 |
Sweden W +0.5 v. Spain W |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Sweden (225349) plus the goal-line versus Spain (225350) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W4-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 2-1 victory against Japan on Thursday. Spain (W4-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-1 win against the Netherlands on Friday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Japan arguably had been the most impressive team in this tournament after the Round of 16 — but Sweden dominated them in their quarterfinal match. The Blue and Yellow took the first 13 shots in the match and took a 2-0 lead in the 51st minute on a penalty kick. Japan played with desperation the rest of the way which made the underlying numbers look better than the eye test — and they did pull within one goal in the 87th minute. But Sweden’s 2.0 to 1.7 edge in expected goals in this match should be viewed in the context that they stopped taking many chances to be more cautious on defense once they took a two-goal lead. The Blue and Yellow also have an impressive win against the number one ranked team in the world in the United States in the Round of 16. Sweden is versatile in their approach while maintaining an outstanding defensive structure. They have only surrendered two goals in their five matches. They will be the most difficult opponent Spain has played in this tournament — and they are quite happy to play in the role of the underdog for the third straight time. La Roja is favored because their underlying numbers are impressive — but this may be an instance where the analytics are betraying what we are about to witness. Spain has simply had a pretty easy pathway to the semifinals. They faced a Netherlands side without their top two players — and they allowed a stoppage-time goal in the 91st minute to extend a match they were dominating into extra time where they would eventually score the winning second goal. They played a mediocre Switzerland team in the Round of 16 that was a similar possession-based team but is not effective in the counter-attack. After beating two minnows in Costa Rica and Zambia, they got dominated by Japan in their final Group Stage match by a 4-0 score who were happy to repeatedly exploit them in the counterattack . Now La Roja faces another opponent that is comfortable playing defense and biding their time for their scoring chances. Those were Sweden’s tactics against the United States although they did not score because the Americans probably had the best defense in the world. That is not the case with the Spanish women who have looked shaky at best when playing without the ball. While La Roja has allowed only 2.6 expected goals in their five matches, this may be a moment where the six actual goals they have allowed indicate they are below average on defense rather than simply unlucky and presumably due to a visit from the Regression Gods. The expected goals data comes from the accumulation of statistics from shots from similar spots on the pitch. Outlier efforts are sometimes the identification of the better or worse player’s performance. Lionel Messi is going to outperform expected goals data because he is the straw that stirs the proverbial drink and pace-setting the outlier statistic. Put another way, the worst teams in the English Premier League tend to have the worst expected goals data because they are the worst teams in the league. Spain has been a good story — and their possession tiki-taka style that features short quick passes has helped them put up big scoring numbers. But their opponents have not been impressive. This group of players has not been in situations like this either — this is La Roja’s first appearance in the Semifinals of a major tournament since 1997.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden has experience in big matches like this — they finished in third place in the 2019 World Cup before losing in the Finals of the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Blue and Yellow are playing in their fifth Semifinal Women’s World Cup match — and this team will be hungry having advanced to the final only once. These two teams last played in a friendly in October of last year which ended in a 1-1 draw. A deadlock after regulation is very possible in this one — as is the Sweden upset victory. 20* Women’s World Cup Sweden-Spain Fox-TV Special with Sweden (225349) plus the goal-line versus Spain (225350). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-12-23 |
Colombia W +1 v. England W |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
13 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Colombia (225345) plus the goal-line versus England (225346) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals of this tournament with a 1-0 victory against Jamaica in their Round of 16 match on Monday. England (W3-D1-L0) survived a 0-0 draw with Nigeria by taking that match via a 4-2 margin in penalty kicks in their Round of 16 Knockout Stage match on Monday. This match will be played on a neutral field at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE COLOMBIA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had the Under in England’s scoreless match with the Nigeria Super Falcons. The Lionesses actually lost the expected goals (xG) battle by a 0.9 to 1.2 margin. They were very fortunate to advance when considering that midfielder Lauren James drew a red card in the 87th minute. Not only did England have to fend off the Nigerian women for 33+ minutes before reaching the shootout, but they will now be without James in their next two matches as she serves her suspension. Her overreaction demonstrated the pressure on this team who won last year’s Euro Championship despite losing the xG battle in many of those contests including in the finals against Germany. England had the advantage of playing that tournament on home soil which I think makes them a bit overvalued now. Even worse, the loss of James continues the slow drip of talent loss from this side’s ideal starting XI. They are already playing this tournament without Leah Williamson who is their best defender. They are also without striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby. Now they lose James who has been their leading scoring in this event with three goals. The Lionesses have scored only eight times in their four matches — and their expected goals in those four matches drop to 7.2 xG. Furthermore, six of their eight goals were scored in their final Group Stage match against China which was a skewed result. Because England scored early in that match, the Chinese women had to break out of their preferred defensive posture to play aggressively since they needed a positive result to advance to the Knockout Stage. Instead, the Lionesses were able to exploit this change of tactics and score five more times — despite only generating 2.6 xG for the match. And while England has only allowed one goal on a penalty kick in this tournament, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is 3.1. Now here comes Colombia playing with house money after reaching the Quarterfinals of a Women’s World Cup for the first time in their history. Las Chicas Ponderosas are a talented side from a nation that takes their soccer very seriously. This is their second appearance in the Knockout Stage after losing to the United States in the Round of 16 in 2015. We had Jamaica on Monday against them — and Colombia did lose the xG battle by a 1.2-0.9 margin. But it is fair to say they were the better side in the first half before taking the lead in the 51st minute from a skillful goal from Catalina Usme. And this group was resilient in holding off the Reggae Girlz in the later stages of that match. Jamaica had not conceded a goal in this tournament before that Usme goal — and they were a side that earned 0-0 draws with both France and Brazil. Las Chicas Ponderosas will be comfortable grinding out a low-scoring match since they prefer parking the bus before finding opportunities for counter-attacks. Their loss to Morocco in the Group Stage was, in part, because they had a tactical conflict with that team that wanted to play a similar approach. England will play aggressively — which is just what Colombia wants.
FINAL TAKE: The story of this World Cup is the emergence of the women’s programs in nations that have had strong men’s teams before investing resources to catch up with the North American and European women’s programs. Colombia has been lurking for years — and now they enjoy the catbird seat where a loss will not be deflating but a victory would be transcendent. All the pressure is on England with a group losing more players and who have only outscored four of their five (non-China) opponents by a 2-0 goal margin. I will be surprised if the Lionesses can score twice in regulation time. I will settle for a push if England wins by a 1-0 score while I expect a scoreless match (or maybe 1-1) after 90 minutes — and I will love Colombia pulling the upset (and NO, I do not recommend adding a little sprinkle on the upset because all those “sprinkles” add up to losses more often than not — I will just be happy to cash this winning ticket at South Point tomorrow morning). 25* Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Colombia (225345) plus the goal-line versus England (225346). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-23 |
Netherlands W +0.5 v. Spain W |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
105 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Netherlands (225333) plus the goal-line versus Spain (225334) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with a 2-0 victory against South Africa in the Round of 16 on Saturday. Spain (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals with a 5-1 victory on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Wellington Regional Stadium in New Zealand.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETHERLANDS PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Spain has been the darlings of the tournament with 13 goals scored based on 13.3 expected goals (xG) which is the most in the tournament. They lead all teams in this event by possessing the ball 74.8% of the time which has helped them lead this World Cup with 178 shot-creating chances, 103 shots, and 202 touches in the opponent’s penalty area. But the Spanish women benefited from facing two of the minnows in this tournament in Costa Rica and Zambia who they beat by a combined 8-0 score. Drawing Switzerland then in the first knockout stage match was a relatively easy draw as well. What is more telling was their match in the Group Stage against Japan. La Roja clearly wants to control possession — but they were exposed by a Japanese side who embraced playing a defensive counter-attacking approach that led them to an easy 4-0 victory. Now Spain faces a veteran Netherlands side that is battle-tested and comfortable engaging in the counter-attack. The Dutch women have scored in each of their matches. They demonstrated that they are comfortable absorbing an aggressive attack in their match against the United States where they scored first before the Americans tied the match in the 62nd minute before both teams settled for a 1-1 draw. The Netherlands were the only team to score against the two-time World Cup champions who may have struggled with their attack but remained elite on the defensive end of the pitch. The US had 18 shots in that match although only five were on target. The Dutch have a great keeper in Daphne Van Domselaar who has three clean sheets in this tournament. They have limited their four opponents to just 0.65 expected goals allowed per match. They lead the World Cup with 85 high forced turnovers which is the tactic that possession-based teams like Spain are most vulnerable against because they lead to counter-attacks with an edge in attackers versus defenders.
FINAL TAKE: Spain is favored in this match because of their great attacking numbers — but this is the first Quarterfinals match in a World Cup for this program after two previous Round of 16 exits. The Netherlands have experience in these spots including in the 2019 World Cup when they lost in the finals to the US by a 2-0 score. The Dutch beat Italy in those Quarterfinals four years ago by a 2-0 score. A Netherlands victory or a tie score after regulation time seem the two most likely options (versus a Spain victory in regulation) — I think the Dutch women match up very well in this contest and can replicate the winning strategy Japan deployed. 20* Women’s World Cup Netherlands-Spain Fox-TV Special with the Netherlands (225333) plus the goal-line versus Spain (225334). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-08-23 |
Jamaica W +0.5 v. Colombia W |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Jamaica (225325) plus the goal-line versus Colombia (225326) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage by finishing in second place in Group F with their 0-0 draw with Brazil on Wednesday. Colombia (W2-D0-L1) won Group H despite coming off a 1-0 loss to Morocco on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium in Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia is a dangerous underdog when they can engage in the role of counter-attacking as they proved against Germany in their huge 2-1 upset victory against one of the tournament favorites who finished in second place at the Euro Championship last summer. But Las Chicas Ponderosas are not as comfortable in the role of the favorite where the tactics call for them to play on their front foot — as they demonstrated in their loss to Morocco. The Moroccan women were content in parking the bus and playing defense while waiting for their opportunities in the counter-attack. While Colombia generated 11 shots, only three were on target. Morocco had seven shots with five of them on target. Morocco won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.2-0.6 margin — so it was a legitimate upset victory for them. South Korea is the only opponent that Las Chicas Ponderosas generated a higher xG mark in the Group Stage. Colombia only produced 2.6 xG in the Group Stage — and their -0.8 net expected goal differential is the only negative mark for the eight betting favorites in the Knockout Stage. They are registering only 0.63 non-penalty kick expected goals per match along with a mere 0.33 Big Chances per match. This team is simply not comfortable controlling possession — they had the ball 60% of the time in their loss to Morocco after letting Germany control possession 67% of the time in their upset victory. Colombia ranks 16th of the 32 in the original field in host Scoring Chances and Shots on Target. Their back line will be without Real Sociedad defender Manuela Vanegas who got suspended for this match after picking up a second yellow card. Jamaica will be thrilled to engage in a similar game plan as the Moroccans did against Colombia — and the Reggae Girlz may be even better at parking the bus and waiting for the opportunities to counter-attack. They will play a similar 4-4-2 formation that will settle in at the low block. Jamaica has not conceded a goal in this tournament which includes impressive scoreless draws against France and Brazil. Their 77 clearances are the most in this tournament. They have an outstanding keeper in Rebecca Spencer — the Tottenham goalie has 17 saves on the 17 shots on target she has faced. The Reggae Girlz are led by Allyson and Chantelle Swaby with the sister duo controlling the middle at center back. And while Jamaica has scored only one goal, their ability to score goals in the Knockout Stage now should not be underestimated. Forward Khadija Shaw scored 20 goals last season for Manchester City.
FINAL TAKE: The expectations Colombia has in this match may not be doing them any favors. This is the program’s second Knockout Stage match after losing to the USA by a 2-0 score in the Round of 16 in the Knockout Stage of the 2015 tournament. But the Reggae Girlz are true underdogs in their first Knockout Stage match having to rely on a GoFundMe campaign to find the money to compete at this tournament after their financial requests were denied by the federation. This shapes up to be a low-scoring match with things being scoreless after 90 minutes highly likely — but I am not going to be surprised if the Jamaicans score the upset. 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Match of the Year with Jamaica (225325) plus the goal-line versus Colombia (225326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-23 |
Nigeria W +1.5 v. England W |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 25 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY AM, 8/7:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday morning is with Nigeria plus the +1.5 goal-line versus England in the Round of 16 in the Women’s World Cup. Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) did not lose a match in the Group Stage despite competing in perhaps the most challenging group. The Super Falcons advanced to the Knockout Stage with a 0-0 draw against Ireland on Monday in a match where they knew they only needed one point. They beat the host nation Australia, also in the Round of 16. Perhaps their most impressive result was their 0-0 draw with a Canadian team that won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. England (W3-D0-L0) is one of three teams to win all three Group Stage matches after a 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. The Lionesses may be overvalued by the betting market right now after benefiting from being the host nation of last year’s Euro Championship which they won despite losing the expected goals battle in several of those matches including the finals against Germany. England is also dealing with several injuries that are keeping them from being at full strength. The Lionesses will be very happy with just a one-goal win — asking more from them may be too much to ask. Take Nigeria plus the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports CA$HED with Sweden plus the +0.5 goal-line against the USA in the Women’s World Cup early Sunday morning to further their 12 of 19 (63%) Soccer run! Frank also has an 8 of 12 (67%) Soccer Match of the Year/Month mark after DELIVERING his 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year last month with the Mexico-Panama Under — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year for an early Sunday morning match on FS1-TV! DO NOT MISS OUT!
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08-06-23 |
USA W v. Sweden W +0.5 |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sweden (225314) plus the goal-line versus the United States (225313) in the Round of 16 in the Knockout State of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W3-D0-L0) completed their sweep of their three Group G matches with a 2-0 victory against Argentina on Wednesday. The United States (W1-D2-L0) survived a late shot that hit the post to hold on to a 0-0 draw with Portugal which is the result they needed to finish in second place in Group E and advance to the Knockout Stage. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium in Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The United States are failing to meet the sky-high expectations of being the best women’s team in the world for years during a span that includes winning two straight Women’s World Cups. After settling with draws against the Netherlands and Portugal, this is the first American team in this tournament that did not win at least two of their Group Stage matches. While the roster remains loaded with talent, this is a team in transition to the next generation. Cohesion has been a problem with the attack lacking creativity and being saddled with underwhelming finishing. Manager Vlatko Andonovski is under fire for uninspiring tactics and stubbornness in not using his bench which should offer a big advantage for the Americans. This is his first World Cup managing this team — the players may not be responding to his leadership skills. The team settled for only a Bronze Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. Captain Alex Morgan has admitted the team is “out of sync.” The underlying metrics confirm the disappointing play of the number-one-ranked team in the world. Their -3.8 net expected goal differential is the worst mark in the entire World Cup. They have a -0.7 win expectation relative to their initial betting odds per match. While they rank four in the tournament in scoring chances, they fall to 26th of the 32 sides in shots on goal. Still, this remains a team that is W10-D0-L0 in their last 12 matches in international play. And the Stars and Stripes may be playing the best defense in the entire World Cup with just one goal conceded on only one shot on target and a mere 11 shots allowed overall in their three matches. But the loss of attacking midfielder Rose Lavelle is devastating for this match — she is suspended after accumulating yellow cards. Lavelle is one of their most reliable scorers — so losing the veteran given their bad vibes on offense is tough. Andonovsky may be tempted to move Julie Ertz up from midfield to her previous position in the midfield to bolster the attack — but doing so risks losing chemistry in the back line. My experience handicapping international soccer since 2010 is that teams looking to flip the switch from disappointing results rarely can suddenly discover their mojo. The Americans remain loaded with talent — but they are playing without confidence while having the weight of the world on their shoulders. That’s not a good combination. And here comes FIFA’s number three ranked team in the world who finished in third place in the 2019 World Cup before winning a Silver Medal at the 2021 Olympics. Sweden is one of three teams to win all three of their matches in the Group Stage. They have scored nine times while conceding a goal only once. The Blue and Yellow play a stifling defense that has limited their three Group Stage opponents to seeing just 25.9% of their shots finish on target. And manager Peter Gerhardsson had the opportunity to rest his starters in their final match on Wednesday. While the US had nine of their starting XI on the pitch in their critical match against Portugal, Gerhardsson made nine changes for the match with Argentina. He has played 22 of the 23 players on his roster — so this is not only a more rested roster but one with more experienced depth in this event. Only their center-back dynamic duo of Amanda Ilestedy and Magdalena Eriksson have started all three matches.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden is very familiar with and will be very confident playing the Americans. These two sides last played in the Group Stage in the 2021 Olympics against the USA “A-Team” — and they clocked them by a 3-0 score. In the last three meetings between these teams in the World Cup, each team won a match with the third match resulting in a draw. Now the Swedes are peaking with the US seemingly in trouble. It would be foolish to count out such a talented team as the USA out of this contest, but the opportunity to cash a winning ticket if this score remains tied after regulation time is too good to pass up — especially since the Blue and Yellow could very well win the match and then move forward to win this tournament. 25* Women’s World Cup USA-Sweden Fox-TV Special with Sweden (225314) plus the goal-line versus the United States (225313). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-12-23 |
Mexico v. Jamaica +1 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Jamaica (225122) plus the goal-line versus Mexico (225121) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 1-0 win against Guatemala in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals the day before with a 2-0 win against Costa Rica. This match is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Mexico is playing better and with more energy under new head coach Jaime Lozano. After a disappointing third-place finish in the CONCACAF Nations League this year — including an embarrassing 3-0 loss to the United States last month — led to Diego Cocca getting sacked. El Tri only won three of their six matches in that competition. Mexico lost their final group stage match against Qatar by a 1-0 score — but I am not reading too much into that since El Tri was resting players after essentially clinching first place in Group B. They also got a bit unlucky in that match. But I am not going to read too much from their 4-0 victory against Honduras nor their 3-1 win against Haiti in the group stage either as those are both weak opponents. The Costa Rica squad they played in the Quarterfinals is down from previous incarnations of that national team. Facing the Reggae Boyz now will be Mexico’s toughest test since playing the USMNT last month. Jamaica reached the Semifinals of the Gold Cup for the fourth time in the last five tournaments — and this might be their best squad. The Reggae Boyz got a big injection of attacking energy with Demarai Gray choosing to leave England’s national team to play for Jamaica as a dual citizen. The Everton forward has scored two goals and added two assists in this tournament. He is joined up top by Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey who has two assists. And while Michail Antonio has not scored in over a year in international play, the star striker from West Ham can explode at any time after leading the Hammers to the Europa League title in the spring. Overall, the Reggae Boyz have six players who play in the English Premier League. They finished in second place in this tournament in 2015 and 2017. Jamaica has scored first in all four of their matches with 11 goals overall going from nine different players. But this squad remains stout defensively led by an outstanding veteran keeper in Andre Blake. They have only conceded twice including once in their impressive 1-1 draw with the United States in their opening group stage match.
FINAL TAKE: The last time Jamaica beat Mexico was by a 1-0 score in a friendly back in 2017. But the Reggae Boyz managed two draws in the last two meetings between these sides which were both CONCACAF Nations League matches with the most recent contest being in March. Jamaica can win this match — and they can certainly keep the score tied going into extra time (ensuring we cover the goal-line spread after the 90-minute regulation time). 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Jamaica (225122) plus the goal-line versus Mexico (225121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-23 |
Canada v. United States -0.5 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-155 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the United States (225114) minus the goal-line versus Canada (225113) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The United States (W2-D1-L0) clinched first place in their group with a 6-0 victory against Trinidad and Tobago last Sunday. Canada (W1-D2-L0) claimed second place in their group with a 4-2 win against Cuba on Tuesday. This match is being played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNITED STATES MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Canadians had a big match against the USMNT last month in the finals of the CONCACAF Nations League — and they lost by a 2-0 score. I was (incorrectly) on the Canucks in that match (plus the goal-line) because I think very highly of their top-line talent — but those players are not competing in this tournament. Without international superstar Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich) along with Jonathan David, Cyle Latin, and Taken Buchanan, manager John Herdman simply lacks the playmaking talent and speed that makes his low-block counter-attacking system effective. I applaud Herdman for taking a similar approach as the Americans in using this Golf Cup tournament as an opportunity to offer experience and evaluate the talent of their younger players. This approach will better prepare both national teams for the 2026 World Cup. But the Canucks simply do not have as deep a roster as the Stars and Stripes (nor Mexico, for that matter). And it is showing in their results. Canada had only scored four combined goals in their previous four matches before scoring four times against a subpar Cuba side. Conceding two goals to the Cubans is not a good sign for what has been a shaky defense that has allowed two of their four goals after the 89th minute in the match (including injury time). They blew a 2-1 lead late in their match against Guadeloupe who have been the darlings of the tournament. That said, Canada should be outclassing Guadeloupe, a small country without a deep soccer tradition of success in international competitions. A vast majority of the US squad that lifted the Nations League trophy last month is not on this roster. But the roster is filled with experienced players from the MLS in what is developing into a golden era for American soccer in the build-up to hosting the 2026 World Cup. They opened with a draw against Jamaica in a result that did not bother me at all when considering the Reggae Boyz had six players on their roster who currently play in the English Premier League. The USMNT has since waxed St. Kitts and Nevis and then Trinidad and Tobago by successive 6-0 scores. Admittedly, this is weak competition, especially with the Soca Warriors being way down right now. But Team USA is clicking under interim manager B.J. Callaghan with them being unbeaten in their last five matches with 18 goals scored and just one goal conceded.
FINAL TAKE: It is very difficult to defeat the United States in these continental competitions when they are playing on home soil. The US is unbeaten in their last 22 matches against Canada when playing on American soil with Les Rouges' last victory being in 1957. The US has won four of their last five matches against the Canucks in the Gold Cup with one draw being the lone blemish. Canada’s best results against the US recently have been in World Cup qualifying matches that were played in Canada — and, of course, their best players like Davies and David were critical components to those good results. In a battle of B-teams in Cincinnati, the USMNT should win in regulation time. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the United States (225114) minus the goal-line versus Canada (225113). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-23 |
Canada +0.5 v. United States |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Canada (235609) plus the goal-line versus the United States (235610) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations League. THE SITUATION: Canada advanced to the Finals of this competition with their 2-0 win against Panama in the Semifinals on Thursday. The United States reached the Finals with a 3-0 win against Mexico in their Semifinals match on Thursday. The match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE CANADA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It was a very emotional match for the USMNT against their biggest rival in Mexico three days ago. There were fights in the stands, aggression on the pitch, and plenty of red cards got issued. The Americans dominated the match — but it was against an El Tri side far from full strength with Raul Jimenez, Hirving Lozano, and Tecatito all not on active roster for these competitions. Not only are those players three of the best on the Mexican national team, but they are also veteran leaders of the squad for years. Given the red card situation from Thursday, the Stars and Stripes will play this match without midfielder Weston McKenzie and fullback Sergino Dest. McKenzie is one of the best players on the team who starts for Juventus in Serie A. Dest is one of the young emerging stars for the team who plays internationally for Barcelona. An emotional letdown after that victory against El Tri is a real possibility. This is an American team in transition as it begins to prepare for the 2026 World Cup as the host nation. It was announced that Gregg Berhalter will return as the manager after six months away from the team after the 2022 World Cup in the fall. B.J. Callaghan serve as the interim manager tonight in his second match as the caretaker for the team after Anthony Hudson initially served as the temporary manager. USA has talent with Folarin Balogun having made his national team debut on Thursday. He joins Giovanni Reyna who has yet to resolve his controversy with Berhalter that resulted in his not playing in the World Cup. The Americans are led by Christian Pulisic who scored twice on Thursday. But the face of this generation of Team USA could not hold a starting job for a struggling Chelsea side in the English Premier League this season and will move to another professional club. Pulisic will not be the best player on the pitch tonight — more on that in a moment. On the surface, there are reasons for optimism for the USMNT after reaching the Knockout Stage at the World Cup before losing to the Netherlands by a 3-1 score. Their nil-nil draw with England in the Group Stage was seen as a major triumph. But the USA also settled for a draw with an underwhelming Wales side — and their only victory was against an Iran side that was one of the lowest-ranked teams in the competition. Canada has beaten five of the last six CONCACAF opponents they have played after their victory against Panama on Thursday. Manager John Herdman played the long game in that match as well by having Alphonso Davies come off the bench — and he immediately scored at the 69-minute mark to put that match away. The Bayern Munich midfielder is the best player in this contest tonight — and he is joined by a talented forward in Jonathan David who is Lille’s top striker in Ligue 1. Les Rouges have several players who play internationally — and they have good cohesion having played for Hardman for years. They went into the World Cup with high expectations but could not get over the hump playing in a very difficult group. They lost by 1-0 and 2-1 scores to Belgium and Morocco. They took a 1-0 lead against Croatia before losing by a 4-1 score. Their goal for the 2026 World Cup will be to reach the Knockout Stage (hopefully with an easier Group Stage draw) and perhaps reach the Quarterfinals. Success at the international level is the next challenge for this side. But when playing fellow CONCACAF teams, Canada is confident. They finished in first place in the World Cup qualifying stage for CONCACAF. Their 11 goals in Nations League play are the most in the competition. Les Rouges will be content to play back and go on the counter-attack led by Davies who is one of the fastest players in the world. The USMNT will control possession — but they are cohesion issues to work out with the mix of Pulisic and Reyna with Balogun and they have been vulnerable to counter-attacking tactics like Wales in their opening World Cup match last fall.
FINAL TAKE: Upsetting the United States would be a huge accomplishment since the Americans have won the last two CONCACAF titles in the 2021 Gold Cup and the 2019 inaugural CONCACAF Nations League. But Canada won the last meeting between these teams with a 2-0 victory in January 2022 in the World Cup qualifying stage. While that match was in Canada, they did earn a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in the US in July of 2021. Les Rouges have not beaten Team USA on American soil since July of 1957 — but the home-field edge for the USMNT will not be overwhelming tonight. Canada just played at Allegiant Stadium on Thursday so there is familiarity with the pitch. And the mood here in Las Vegas is tepid after the violence in the stands and ensuing traffic jams outside the stadium. Mexico was the big match — now it’s “just the (nice) Canadians” — but the Americans are the team with the bullseye on their jersey for our neighbors up north. Finally, remember that all we need is a tie score after 90 minutes of regulation time (plus stoppage time) to cash this ticket. If this match goes for extra time or is settled by penalty kicks, we win. 25* CONCACAF Nations League Match of the Year with Canada (235609) plus the goal-line versus the United States (235610). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-23 |
Inter Milan v. Manchester City -1 |
Top |
0-1 |
Push |
0 |
18 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Manchester City reached the Finals of the UEFA Champions League after a 4-0 victory at home against Real Madrid on May 17th that cemented their 5-1 aggregate victory. Inter Milan beat AC Milan in the second leg of the Semifinals showdown with their crosstown rivals to advance with a 3-0 aggregate score.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Inter Milan completed their Serie A campaign last Saturday in a 1-0 win at Torino in a match where they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.55 to 0.79 margin. Le Nerazzurri are historically one of the top two sides in Italy — and perhaps they are top-ten in the world over the last five or so years. But this year’s club was the beneficiary of some good fortune in the Champions League. They did survive a difficult Group Stage that included Bayern Munich and Barcelona — beating Barcelona at home in early October ended up being the difference for them after losing both matches to the Bundesliga giants. Their draw in the Knockout Stage was as good as can ever be expected. They got FC Porto in the Round of 16 and then Benfica in the Quarterfinals. After disposing of those two clubs from the Primeira League of Portugal, they then drew fellow Serie A competitor AC Milan who was missing their best striker Rafael Leo in the first leg. They also got both those matches in their San Siro home stadium which they share with AC Milan. Le Nerazzurri finished only tied for third place in Serie A this season — and they were fifth in that league with a W9-D3-L7 record on the road. They have an older roster featuring the 37-year-old Edin Dzeko, the 34-year-old Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and the 30-year-old Romelu Lukaku coming off the bench. While the 25-year-old Lautaro Martinez is their best player and could be destined for a big contract in the English Premier League someday, Lukaku and Mkhitaryan are EPL castaways at this point in their careers. The quality of play in Serie A (and the Primeira League) is a few notches below the level of play in the EPL that Man City dominated. The Cityzens are looking to achieve a historical treble with the EPL title, last week's FA Cup title, and now the European Championship. That Red Devils team they played last week is probably better than this Inter Milan side. There is a route for victory for Le Nerazzuri with their 5-3-2 defensive structure and their outstanding keeper Andre Onana keeping them in a low-scoring match. But if — and when — Man City scores, then Inter Milan will have to eventually shift out of their defensive approach which will open things up for the Sky Blues to counter-attack with more scoring opportunities. Man City was on a 25-match unbeaten streak through clinching the EPL title last month. Ignore their recent results outside the FA Cup title last week since manager Pep Guardiola deployed a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury to prepare for these two huge matches this month. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. After not scoring last Saturday against Manchester United, he could be in store for a big match after being brought in last summer specifically in being the final piece to bring the Champions League title to the club. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.
FINAL TAKE: Guardiola was brought into Man City to bring the fabled franchise their first Champions League title. After becoming the hegemony of the EPL, this is the final trophy for Pep and this core group of players to claim — and they really want it. They were favorites to win the title match two years ago before getting upset by Chelsea. They then blew a big first-leg lead against Real Madrid in the semifinals last year. The rosters on those Chelsea and Real Madrid teams were much better — and battle-tested against better domestic and UCL competition. The Cityzens will not take this challenge lightly. After rallying to upend Arsenal in the EPL after fronting them a big lead, I think they are a team of destiny who will seize the moment with a big win. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-23 |
Manchester United v. Manchester City -1 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401) in the FA Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W5-D0-L0) reached the English FA Cup Finals with a 3-0 victory against Sheffield United on April 22nd. Manchester United (W5-D0-L0) joined them in the championship match the next day with a 0-0 match with Brighton and Hove Albion that the Red Devils on penalty kicks on April 23rd. This match is being played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United enters this match on a four-game winning streak after a 2-1 win at home against Fulham that completed their English Premier League campaign on Sunday. The Red Devils qualified for the UEFA Champions League by finishing in third place in the EPL table with 75 points — but they still were far off from Man City who won the league title with 89 points. Man United was the second-best side (to the Cityzens) when playing at home. They won 15 of their 19 matches at home at Old Trafford with just one defeat in EPL action. They scored 36 goals at home in those 19 league matches while conceding just 10 times. They generated an impressive +24.88 net expected goal differential (xGD) when playing at home in those 19 EPL matches. But it was a different story for the Red Devils when they played on the road. Man United was just W8-D3-L8 on the road in the EPL this season — and they were outscored by 10 goals in those 19 contests. They only scored 22 goals in those 19 road matches — and they conceded 33 times. They have a -3.27 net xGD in those 19 road matches — and they ranked only six in the EPL in expected Points when playing on the road. While the Red Devils’ played elite-level defense at home in Old Trafford, they were middle of the pack on the road. Manager Erik Ten Hag’s side ranked only seventh in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected Goals Allowed this season. Even more troubling, Man United was beaten by seven of the other top-eight teams in the EPL table when playing on the road with a 2-2 draw at Tottenham being their best result. In these eight road matches, the Red Devils scored only eight goals while conceding 28 goals. Five of their losses to the top-nine sides were by multiple goals. Ten Hag’s team enters this match not at full strength with Anthony and Anthony Martial dealing with injuries. This leaves Man United lacking depth at the striker position which means Ten Hag will likely move Marcus Rashford to the #10 position despite his being more effective at wing. And here comes Man City rested and determined to pull off the rare treble. With the EPL title in hand, the Sky Blues look to take the FA Cup before playing for the UEFA Champions League title next Saturday against Inter Milan. Man City’s 25-match unbeaten streak was snapped last Sunday in a 1-0 loss at Brentford last Sunday to conclude their EPL campaign — but manager Pep Guardiola deplored a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury of already clinching the EPL title the week earlier. In FA Cup play, the Cityzens scored 17 times and did not concede a goal. Stefan Ortega will continue to serve as the team’s keeper in Cup action as he looks to continue his five-straight clean sheets streak. Frankly, he has been more reliable this year than Emerson who will get the start next week in the Champions League Finals. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their minds as well after losing to Man United at Old Trafford in the last match between these teams by a 2-1 score on January 14th. But the Cityzens have still won three of the last four matches between these two teams while outscoring them by a 12-4 goal margin. 25* FA Cup Match of the Year with Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-23 |
Chelsea v. Manchester United -1 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (200130) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (200129). THE SITUATION: Man United (W21-D6-L9) has won two matches in a row after their 1-0 win against Bournemouth on Saturday. Chelsea (W11-D10-L15) comes off a 1-0 loss to Man City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED DEVILS MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United needs one more point in their final two matches to secure a top-four finish in the English Premier League table which qualifies them for the UEFA Champions League next year. But manager Erik ten Hag would prefer to get this accomplishment out of the way as soon as possible so he can rest players in the final EPL match of the season to prepare for the FA Cup final coming up against Man City. The squad looks to get back their leading scorer Marcus Rashford for this match as well with him in training this week after missing time with a leg injury. Rashford might have played in the match against Bournemouth but he then got ill which delayed his return to the pitch. Man United has been tough to beat at home at Old Trafford this season where they have won 13 of their 17 EPL matches while losing only one time. They have a +17.2 expected net goal differential at home as compared to their -4.3 expected net goal differential on the road in league play. The Red Devils have not allowed a goal at home in EPL play since early February with five victories amongst those six clean sheets. Chelsea has nothing to play for with their current standing in 12 place — they are safe from relegation but can not qualify for any European tournaments next year. Disarray with the ownership contributed to some questionable transfer signings of overrated past-their-prime talent. Unsurprisingly, the predictable injury bug followed. Mason Mount, Ben Chilwell, N’Golo Kante, Reese James, and Mateo Kovacic headline their long injured list — and now Benoit Badiashile joins that group with the defender suffering a groin injury that could keep him sidelined for months. The team is on their third manager this season with Frank Lampard agreeing to serve as a short-term caretaker after Graham Potter was sacked on April 6th. While Lampard was a legendary player for the Blues, he was a miserable failure for the franchise as their manager several seasons ago — and he then was ineffective as the manager for Everton before getting fired earlier in the year. Predictably, the players have not responded to Lampard’s temporary reinstatement with the team. Since he has taken over, Chelsea is third worst in the league with seven losses and only three points in nine matches. Their lone results were a win against 15th-place Bournemouth and a draw at home to 16th-place Nottingham Forest. The defense has been atrocious under Lampard with the team allowing 1.43 expected goals per match and 2.9 Big Chances per match under his second tenure. The Blues have not produced a clean sheet since he took over. Chelsea is the poster child for a team with their minds focused on the proverbial beach before former Tottenham and Paris Saint-Germain manager Mauricio Pochettino takes over to begin fixing the many problems with this squad.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams had a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge back when Thomas Tuchel was still managing this Blues team that had higher aspirations. Chelsea ranks fourth to the bottom of the league in points generated on the road. Beating the Blues always gives Man United motivation. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with Manchester United (200130) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (200129). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-22 |
Real Madrid v. Liverpool -0.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool reached the finals of the European championship with their 3-2 victory at Villarreal which gave them a 5-2 aggregate win in the semifinals. Real Madrid rallied from losing the first leg at Manchester City by a 4-3 score to level the aggregate score in regulation time in the second leg before scoring in extra time to take the 6-5 aggregate victory. This match is being played on a neutral field at the State de France in Saint-Denis, France, just north of Paris.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Real Madrid has had a difficult road to reach the finals with a grueling knock stage that involved matches against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, and Man City. But Los Blancos consistently lost the expected goals battle in those contests — and they have a -1.9 net expected goals differential in those six knockout stage contests. Defense is an issue for manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team as they allowed 1.8 expected goals per match in their six knockout stage matches. They have resisted a clean sheet in any of the six legs in the knockout stage. Furthermore, much of the magic with this Real Madrid side came at home. Against Man City in the second leg of the semifinals, the Cityzens seemingly had the match in hand with a 1-0 lead before Rodrygo scored in the 90th and then 91st minute to force extra time where the sublime Karim Benzema scored the game-winner on a penalty kick in front of an ecstatic crowd. Los Blancos posted a +0.75 expected goals differential when playing at home — but they had a -0.16 net expected goals differential in the Champions League when playing on the road. Liverpool settled for second place in the English Premier League by one point — but they remain very motivated to bring home this trophy. They have scored at least two goals in 12 of their 15 Champions League matches. Additionally, they have only lost once in their last 12 Champions League matches (an irrelevant second-leg loss to Inter Milan where they still won the aggregate score comfortably) — and they won 10 of those matches. They have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 Champions League matches — and they have scored at least three goals in six of those contests. The Reds’ defense has also been solid as they have only conceded more than 1.0 expected goals once in their six matches in the knockout stage.
FINAL TAKE: This one is personal for Mo Salah who had to leave the Finals of the 2018 Champions League against this same Real Madrid side after receiving a cheap shot from Sergio Ramos that separated his shoulder. Salah has commented that losing the 2018 final was the biggest professional disappointment of his career. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-22 |
Liverpool -0.5 v. Villarreal |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Liverpool won the first leg between these two teams by a 2-0 score last Wednesday. Villarreal hosts today’s match having to win by at least two goals to force extra time to decide the contest.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are rolling on a five-game winning streak — and they have won 22 of their last 27 matches across all competitions. They come off a 1-0 victory at Newcastle United on Saturday in a match where they limited the Magpies to only 0.16 expected goals. Liverpool’s defense is perhaps playing at its highest level ever under manager Jurgen Klopp. They have now registered four straight clean sheets since beating Man City in the FA Cup Semifinals — and they have conceded a combined 0.86 expected goals allowed (xGA) in those four contests. They absolutely stymied the Yellow Submarines in the first leg last week. Villarreal registered only one shot — and it was not on target — with a mere three touches in the Reds’ penalty area. Liverpool held them to just 0.05 xGA. Villarreal had little success penetrating the midfield line consisting of Thiago and Fabinho — only 13 of their 44 long passes were successful. The Reds, on the other hand, generated 1.75 expected goals (xG) while peppering the Yellow Submarines with 20 shots and 45 touches in their penalty area. Liverpool has been dominant when playing on the road as well. They have not lost on the road in any match since December — and they have won all five of their matches on the road in the Champions League. Villarreal remained flat over the weekend in a 2-1 loss at Alaves in La Liga. They generated only 1.10 xG while conceding 2.35 xGA. Injuries have slowed them down over this recent stretch — but manager Unai Emery does get Gerard Moreno back as an attacker. But the Yellow Submarines’ forward group is still decimated with injuries with their rising star at left-wing Arnaut Danjuma not in the starting XI after not playing over the weekend — and Alberto Moreno and Yeremi Pino are also still on the shelf. Let’s take a grain of salt to the weekend loss to Alaves since Emery rotated players to prepare for this rematch — the priority for this club is the Champions League. But it says something that Villarreal is only in seventh place in La Liga. They beat an overrated Juventus side learning to live life without Ronaldo in the Round of 16 — and then they were fortunate to catch an injured Bayern Munich team in the Quarterfinals. And they either had a lead or were tied with both those clubs going into the second leg which allowed Emery to maintain his low-block defensive stance where they could counter-attack with a healthier forward group. Now, this is Liverpool — one of the top two teams in the world. They will have to play aggressively — and the Reds should punish them in the counterattack. Villarreal is unbeaten in their last 12 matches at home — but they are just fourth at home in points in La Liga. The Yellow Submarines will have to play a style out of their comfort zone against a superior opponent — those are not promising circumstances.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did not win either second leg in the Knockout Stage in this competition — but context is important. The Reds held a 2-0 lead against Inter Milan in the Round of 16 — and when Inter dropped to 10 men after a yellow card, defensive tactics were more than enough to easily survive a 1-0 loss where they advanced with the 2-1 aggregate score. And then Klopp had the luxury of rotating players after winning their first leg with Benfica by a 5-0 score — so the 3-3 result in the second leg continued their overall domination in that match. With a showdown with Man City in the Finals looming, I suspect Klopp will demand a closing effort from his players — and his starting XI is the A-team (save for Jordan Henderson in the midfield who is getting rested). 25* UEFA Champions League Semifinals Match of the Year with the Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-12-22 |
Villarreal v. Bayern Munich -1.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-140 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224218) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224217) in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won their third match in their last four contests with a 1-0 victory at home against Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday. Villarreal settled with a 1-1 draw against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga on Saturday. Villarreal won the first leg last Wednesday by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Bavarians may have been taking the Yellow Submarine lightly last week — but they were thoroughly outplayed as they lost the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.61 to 1.23 margin. Frankly, manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is fortunate to only be trailing by one goal. But a two-goal victory tonight is all the Bavarians need to advance to the Semifinals. Injuries have impacted this team. Their star Canadian midfielder, Alphonso Davies, had been out but did get back on the pitch last week. He might have been dealing with fitness issues but he has now played in two matches after coming off the bench on the weekend. Midfielder Leon Goretzka has also been hobbled and came off the bench in the first leg — but he should get the start in this crucial rematch. Bayern Munich got blanked for just the second time in a Champions League since February 2020. But now the Bavarians return home to Allianz Arena where they are generating 3.25 xG in the Champions League this season and where they are posting 2.68 xG in the Bundesliga this year. They have won five of their last six games at home across all competitions. It has also been over three years since Bayern Munich has not scored at least two goals in a Champions League match at home. Villarreal is playing at their best in European competition — yet their form in domestic play has to be a concern. They are just W1-D1-L3 in their last five matches in La Liga while scoring only twice. They are not likely to qualify for European play next year through the Spanish top-flight given their current seventh place in the standings, trailing Real Sociedad by eight points. Their draw with Athletic Bilbao on Saturday was against the eighth-place team in the league, although manager Unai Emery did make 11 lineup changes for that match from the first leg. But while Villarreal is now unbeaten in 11 straight matches at home, they have not been nearly as effective when playing on the road. In domestic play, the Yellow Submarine is W9-D5-L2 at home while averaging a +1.02 net expected goal differential per 90 minutes. But on the road in La Liga, Villarreal is just W3-D5-L7 while averaging just a +0.09 net expected goal differential.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich was flat in their first leg match against RB Salzburg in the Round of 16 in the Champions League where they settled with a 1-1 draw — but they rebounded the next week back at home with a 7-1 thrashing to easily advance to the Quarterfinals. While I do not expect seven more goals tonight, a decisive effort is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Bayern Munich (224218) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224217). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-22 |
Benfica v. Ajax Amsterdam -1.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Ajax (224254) minus the goal-line versus Benfica (224253) in the second leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Ajax has won three straight matches with their 3-2 victory against Cambuur on Friday. Benfica is unbeaten in their last seven matches with their 1-1 draw at home against Vizela on Saturday. These teams settled for a 2-2 draw in the first leg of the Round of 16 on February 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE AJAX MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: I wrestled between the side play on the Sons of Gods or take the Over — and I concluded that an Ajax 2-0/3-0 victory is more likely this afternoon than a 3-2 Ajax win. Benfica may be without striker Roman Yaremchuk in this match as he is dealing with an illness. Ajax is going to score goals in this contest. They have scored three goals in their last three contests while generating at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each contest. The Sons of Gods are on a seven-match winning streak when playing at home with 31 goals and just two goals conceded (both on Friday — so manager Erik Ten Hag will be looking to shore things up on that end of the pitch). Ajax has scored at least three goals in each of those last seven home contests. This team was just one of three teams in the Group Stage of the Champions League to win all six of their matches. They scored the second-most goals in the Group Stage — and they also generated the second-best expected goals differential to Bayern Munich. In their three home matches in the Group Stage, they won all three contests by more than one goal (to cover a -1.5 goal-line spread). Benfica will surrender their share of goals as they have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Eagles are in second place in the Portuguese Primeira Liga which is not considered one of the elite leagues in Europe. And this is a team that can get rolled. In their three matches in the Champions League against Bayern Munich and Ajax, they conceded 10.24 expected goals (xGA). In their road match against Bayern Munich in the Group Stage, they got smashed by a 5-2 score. Benfica has held their last four opponents to 1.15 xGA per 90 minutes — but all four of those sides were on the bottom half of the Primeira Liga table. The Eagles scoring drops off on the road — while they generated 1.43 xG in their four Champions League home matches, that number drops to 1.13 xG per 90 minutes in their three Group Stage matches on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Ajax won the xG battle by a 2.01 to 1.86 mark in the first leg. An own goal by Sebastian Haller gave Benfica life on their home pitch in that match. The Sons of Gods were on target in eight of their 11 shots in that match — their most efficient performance so far in the Champions League this season. Yaremchuck scored Benfica’s only goal — so his absence would hurt. Bayern Munich dominated RB Salzburg last week at home in that second leg after settling for a surprising draw on the road in the first leg — look for a similar game script in this one. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Year with the Ajax (224254) minus the goal-line versus Benfica (224253). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-22 |
Newcastle United v. Southampton -0.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Southampton (200102) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200101). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W8-D11-L8) had their three-game snapped in a 4-0 loss at Aston Villa on Saturday. Newcastle (W6-D10-L10) has won two matches in a row after their 2-1 win against Brighton and Hove Albion last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints had been unbeaten in seven straight matches in all competitions — before laying an egg against the Villans — with their only two blemishes being very respectable draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl’s high-press has been effective even against those two sides that are now in the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League. Southampton ranks fourth in the English Premier League in pressure success rate — and this is a vulnerability for the Magpies as they have the third-worst success rate in the league breaking pressure. The Saints play their best at home at St. James Park where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches with four straight victories. They thrive against teams in the bottom half of the league at home as well. They have won five of their seven EPL games at home against bottom-half clubs (with two draws) with three straight victories. They have allowed more than 1.0 expected goals (xG) just once in those seven matches — and they have generated at least 1.0 xG in six of those seven matches with the lone exception being in a match where they played with ten men due to a red card. In their last three matches at home against a bottom-half side, they have generated at least 2.2 xG. Newcastle is unbeaten in their last seven matches — but they were fortunate against Brighton as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.89-1.86 xG mark. Frankly, the Magpies have been fortunate to be getting the results they have. In their last six matches which finished with 11 versus 11 players, they have outscored those opponents by 5 goals despite having a net expected goals margin of +2.4. They have scored nine times in those six matches despite generating 7.6 xG. And they have been taking advantage of the lesser teams in the league as six of their last seven opponents have been in 11th place or worse on the EPL table. They have lost six of their 12 league matches on the road where they rank third-to-last in xG. They have generated less than 1.0 xG in seven of their last eight matches that finished at 11-versus-11.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture at Newcastle on August 28th. Southampton dominated the expected goals in that match by a 3.53-1.23 xG margin — and they generated four Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a 35% or better success rate). Look for the Saints to earn the win on their home pitch. 25* EPL Thursday Afternoon Match of the Month with Southampton (200102) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-22 |
Norwich City v. Southampton -1 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Southampton Saints (200018) minus the goal-line versus the Norwich City Canaries (200017). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W7-D11-L7) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win against Everton on Saturday. Norwich City (W4-D5-L16) has lost two in a row after their 3-1 loss at Liverpool on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints are playing the best soccer of their season right now as they have reached the top half of the English Premier League table and continue to advance into the deep stages of the FA Cup. Southampton has only lost once in their last 11 matches across all competitions. They recently beat Tottenham and earned impressive draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. The Saints’ attack has averaged 2.18 goals-per-game in their last 11 matches across all competition. Southampton has been effective bottom-feeders as well — they are W4-D2-L0 in their last six matches against teams below them in the EPL table. They have generated 1.67 expected goals-per-game (xG) in those matches — +0.30 xG above their season average — while allowing just 0.67 expected goals per match (xGA). The Saints are also unbeaten in their last nine matches at home at Saint Mary’s Park with nine victories. They are sixth in the league at home in xGA with a mark that is -0.37 xGA below their season average. Norwich City is in last place in the EPL with just 17 points. Since Dean Smith has taken over as manager, the Canaries are last in the league in expected goals scored. They go on the road where they lost eight of their twelve matches — and they are last in the EPL in net expected goals differential. They only average 0.78 xG on the road — so the Saints may register a clean sheet in this match. Norwich City is also winless in their six road matches against teams in the top half of the league. They are allowing nearly 2.6 xGA per match in those contests. The Canaries' last six losses have all been by at least two goals.
FINAL TAKE: Southampton will have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Carrow Road which the Canaries won by a 2-1 score. The Saints did win the xG battle by a 1.1-0.5 mark — and they are in much better form now. 25* EPL Friday USA Network Match of the Month with the Southampton Saints (200018) minus the goal-line versus the Norwich City Canaries (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-22-22 |
Juventus v. Villarreal |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Villarreal (224218) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224217) in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches in the UEFA Champions League Knockout Stage. THE SITUATION: Villarreal enters this match coming off a 4-1 win at Granada in La Liga action on Saturday. Juventus settled for a 1-1 draw with Turin in Serie A competition on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE VILLARREAL WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Villarreal is in their best form all season entering this match. Since November 30th, the Yellow Submarine are W10-D1-L3 in their last 14 matches with 45 goals and 13 goals conceded. In their last four matches (all in La Liga), they are unbeaten with three victories — scoring nine times and conceding just once. Manager Unai Emery’s style is to craft strong defensive teams that engage in a conservative offensive regimen predicated on the counter-attack. But these Yellow Submarines have thrived in scoring goals as of late. They generated 5.12 expected goals (xG) in their victory over Granada on Saturday which was the highest xG mark for any club playing in one of the top-five European professional leagues this season. They are getting great contributions up top from left wing Arnault Danjuma who scored a hat trick in that victory. Villarreal has arguably been the best team in La Liga since December 1st. They hold the best net expected goal differential of +1.47 (xGD) over that span. The emerging Yellow Submarine attack has been the difference-maker as they have generated 2.52 xG since December 1st which is the top mark in La Liga over that span — far above Real Madrid’s 2.20 xG mark. Villarreal’s defensive identity has remained during this time as they have allowed only eight goals in those last 11 La Liga contests, the fourth-lowest in that span. The Yellow Submarine press has been more effective this season. After ranking eighth and tenth in allowing the fewest successive passes in a row in league play (a measure of defensive pressure), they have catapulted to being second-best in La Liga in that metric. Playing at home at Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal is unbeaten in their last six matches at home with 17 goals scored and just four conceded in those contests. Juventus is unbeaten in their last 12 matches in Serie A but they were shaky in their most recent match against Turin. They managed only 0.82 xG but conceded 0.93 expected goals allowed (xGA) against a side that is just 10th in the Italian top-flight (in a professional league not as strong as La Liga). The Old Lady is ravaged with injuries right now: Federico Cheese, Federico Bernardeschi, and Paulo Dybala are missing from their attack and they are without Giorgio Chellini and Daniele Rugani in their backline. The club did sign Dusan Vlahovic in the January transfer window to shore up the attack — but the 21-year-old’s stats with Fiorentina are propped up by five goals on penalty kicks. He has scored 19 times for Fiorentina and now Juventus this season — but he only has 9.2 non-penalty kick expected goals this year. In their last nine matches in Serie A, the Old Lady has not generated more than 1.5 xG in any of those contests. Their non-penalty kick xG in Serie of 1.17 is just 11th best — and their +0.38 net xGD of +0.38 is far below what Villarreal is generating despite playing in an inferior league to La Liga.
FINAL TAKE: Juventus has a -2.9 net xGD against the top-seven sides in Serie A plus their two Group Stage matches in the Champions League against Chelsea. They got waxed by a 4-0 score at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea in their Group Stage contest — when they were healthier than they are now. Villarreal has tended to fold against elite competition but they have recently registered draws with Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid while beating Real Bettis by a 2-0 score who are in third place in La Liga. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Villarreal (224218) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224217). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-22-22 |
Aston Villa v. Everton |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200066) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200065). THE SITUATION: Everton (W5-D4-L10) lost their third match in the English Premier League in their last four with a 2-1 setback to Norwich City last Saturday. Aston Villa (W7-D2-L11) snapped a three-game losing streak across all competitions last Saturday with a 2-2 draw with Manchester United.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Everton organization decided enough was enough after the uninspired play from the Toffees from a promoted Canaries side that is currently in the relegation zone. Everton is in 16th place themselves — a far cry from the top half of the table where they expect to be competing for European competition qualification for next season. Manager Rafa Benitez was sacked after the match and replaced by assistant and a previous interim manager for the team in Duncan Ferguson. Benitez was not popular with fans nor the locker room — so I am expecting the new manager bounce for the Toffees this morning. And like a college football team firing their manager in-synch with a good returning class knowing that they are putting their new head coach in a better position to succeed, Benitez’s firing coincides with Everton getting healthy again. The Toffees have been ravaged with injuries but they do now have Dominic Calvert-Lewin back as their striker along with attacking midfielder Richarlison and Yerry Mina to fortify their backline. Calvert-Lewin has started the last two matches after playing only three matches in August before being out with an injury. Richarlison and Mina came on in the 54th minute against Norwich City with the Brazilian midfielder scoring a goal and jumpstarting the Toffees’ attack. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Everton averages 1.43 expected goals (xG) per match when Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison are playing together on the pitch — that mark drops to 0.98 xG when one or both of them are not playing in the last two seasons. The Toffees scored at least two goals in those first three matches in August before the Calvert-Lewin injury. Richarlison has missed seven of the team’s 19 matches this season — a big blow since he is probably the best overall player on the roster. Mina has missed 11 matches this season. When he is on the pitch leading the backline defenders, Everton allows only 1.12 expected goals (xGA) — but they surrender 1.92 xGA when he is not playing this season. The Toffees are a much better team when playing at home at Goodison Park where they have registered four of their five victories this season. Everton has scored at least two goals in six of their nine home matches — and they have just an expected net goal differential of -1.39 despite all the injuries to key players. Aston Villa had been outscored by a 6-2 margin in their three-game losing streak before eking out the surprising draw against a still-struggling Man United side finding their identity under a new caretaker manager. The Villans enjoyed an initial bump under their new manager Steven Gerrard who took over nine matches ago.
|
12-02-21 |
Brentford +1 v. Tottenham Hotspur |
|
0-2 |
Loss |
-135 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Brentford (200113) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200114). Brentford (W4-D4-L5) enter this match coming off a 1-0 victory against Everton in their most recent match in the English Premier League on Saturday. Tottenham (W6-D1-L5) last played in the EPL on November 21st in a 2-1 victory against Leeds United. Their league match with Burnley on Saturday was postponed because of snow.
REASONS TO TAKE BRENTFORD PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Tottenham is a -1 goal-line favorite due to bettors expecting the Antonio Conte bounce for this team. The Spurs are W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since Conte took over — but two of those matches were in the second-tier Europa League. Even more troubling, Tottenham was upset in their last match in a 2-1 setback on the road at Mura on November 25th in the Europa League. Granted, that Spurs starting XI consisted of backups — but it is a significant concern when considering the roster may not match the tactics Conte wants to deploy. Said Conte after that match: “After three weeks I am starting to understand the situation. It is not simple. At this moment the level at Tottenham is not so high. I must be honest and tell you that after three-and-a-half weeks, I am starting to understand the situation. I can tell you that the situation is not simple. It is not simple because in this moment for sure the level of Tottenham is not so high. There is an important gap to the top teams in England. Of this we must not be scared. I am here to work, here to improve the situation.I know that in this moment we need to have patience, time and I am here because I know there are problems to solve. After three-and-a-half weeks, I am happy to stay here but at the same time I must be honest and tell you we need to work a lot to improve the quality of the (current) squad. We are Tottenham and Tottenham in this moment, there is an important gap. If someone thinks that a new coach arrives and Conte won in the past and then I am a magician. But the only magic I can do is to work. To bring work and work to improve, to bring my methods, my ideas of football. But we have to understand that we need time.” Yikes — especially for a Spurs side that is 17th in the league in expected goals, 20th in shots per match, and 14th in Big Chances created. Harry Kane has only scored one goal for the team this season — the veteran has appeared gassed after his commitment to the English National Team’s run to the Euro 2020 Finals last summer. The Spurs are not at full strength either with defenseman Cristian Romero still out. Brentford is one of the most underrated teams in the league. They rank fifth in the EPL in expected goal differential. The Bees may only have four points in their last six league contests — but they have won the expected goals (xG) battle in three of those matches and they have just a -0.2 net expected goal differential in those matches. Brentford is just one of six EPL sides that rank in the top ten in both expected goals and expected goals allowed. Manager Thomas Frank’s team is also seventh in the EPL with nine points accrued on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Brentford’s defensive tactics keeps them competitive in their matches. They have only lost by more than one goal once in their last 40 straight matches across all competitions — and they have lost by more than one goal just once in their last 19 matches on the road in all competitions. Tottenham has not defeated an opponent by more than one goal in ten straight matches. Conte emphasizes defensive tactics — if the Spurs do win this match, it is highly unlikely that it will be by more than one goal. 20* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Brentford (200113) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-21 |
Juventus v. Chelsea -0.75 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (224282) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224281) in Group H play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W3-D0-L1) has won eight of their last nine matches across all competitions with their 3-0 win at Leicester City in the English Premier League on Saturday. Juventus (W4-D0-L0) has won three matches in a row across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Lazio in Serie A play on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues hot streak started after losing to Juventus in the reverse fixture in the Champions League on September 29th — more on that match in the Final Take. The reigning European Champions have since found the defensive core that helped them claim the Champions League title. And despite injuries at forward to Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner, manager Thomas Tuchel has his XI generating offense from their wings. Chelsea has produced a clean sheet in six of their last seven matches in the EPL and UCL. They have outscored their last seven opponents in the EPL and UCL by a whopping 19 to 1 margin — and they have scored multiple goals in four of their last six matches in the EPL and UCL. The Blues are dominating the EPL competition in first place with 30 goals and just four goals conceded. They have a +12.94 non-penalty kick expected goals differential in the EPL that is the top professional league in Europe. Serie A is a top-five European professional league — but they are not as strong as the EPL. Juventus only has a +6.59 non-penalty kick expected goals differential in the Italian top-flight where they are in sixth place. The team misses Cristiano Ronaldo who led their offensive attack last season before being signed by Manchester United this year. But the identity of Juventus is usually their defensive play — and after leading Serie in expected goals allowed (xGA) last season, they have dropped to third in that metric this year. Furthermore, three starters — Paulo Dybala, Giorgio Chiellini, and Federico Bernardeschi — are questionable to play in this match.
FINAL TAKE: Juventus has won all four of their UCL matches and just needs a draw to clinch their advancement to the Knockout Stage. Chelsea will want the victory to draw even with the Old Lady in Group H — and taking first place gives them a better draw in the Round of 16 so this is an important match. Despite losing 1-0 to Juventus in September, the Blues dominated the match. They controlled possession for 72% of the match; they out-touched them by a 422 to 77 margin in the final third of the pitch; they completed 723 passes to just 236 passes; they had 17 entries into the box to just 5 conceded. Look for Chelsea to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 25* UEFA Champions League Group H Match of the Month with Chelsea (224282) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224281). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-21 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Everton |
Top |
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Tottenham (200149) with the goal-line versus Everton (200150). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W5-D0-L5) looks to rebound in the English Premier League after a 3-0 loss to Manchester United last Saturday. Everton (W4-D2-L4) has lost three in a row after a 2-1 loss to Wolverhampton on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: This is half an “In Antonio Conte We Trust” — but the manager has earned this level of respect when taking over clubs. The Hotspurs sacked Nuno Espirito Santo last week after he failed to achieve results with this squad. I like Nuno — but perhaps his style is not a good fit with the blue bloods on the Hotspur squad. Dealing with egos has not been a problem with Conte who has had an immediate impact on his new teams in the past. He won the EPL title in his first season with Chelsea winning 30 of 38 matches. He then took over Juventus an improved team from 7th place to winning the Scudetto Serie A title. The Conte impact is instantaneous. In his first 10 matches with Chelsea, the team went W7-D1-L2 with four clean sheets. They scored 16 goals and allowed nine. In his first ten matches with Juventus, he went W5-D5-L0 with four clean sheets. They scored 16 goals and allowed seven. In his first ten matches with Inter Milan in his last stint, they went W8-D1-L1 with four clean sheets. They scored 21 goals and allowed 10 goals. This remains a talented Hotspurs squad that reached the UEFA Champions League Finals only two years ago. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min still lead a talented side that seems uninspired under Nuno. The Spurs' first match under Conte resulted in a 3-2 win against Vitesse in the Europa League on Thursday. They should play better in this match. Everton has lost three in a row with injuries mounting to expose a roster lacking in depth. The Toffees have lost the expected goals battle in four straight English Premier League matches. They remain with striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure.
FINAL TAKE: Everton has lacked a home pitch advantage with their 9 points derived from a W3-D0-L2 record betrayed by an expected points mark of 7.63. Tottenham has the talent edge — and I expect a Conte bounce. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Tottenham (200149) with the goal-line versus Everton (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-21 |
Ajax Amsterdam v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Ajax (224249) with the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224250) in Group C of the UEFA Champions League. Ajax (W3-D0-L0) leads Group C with a perfect 3-0 record after their 4-0 victory at home in Amsterdam against Borussia Dortmund in the reverse fixture on October 19th. Borussia Dortmund (W2-D0-L1) is in second place in Group C with the top two teams advancing to the Knockout Stage.
REASONS TO TAKE AJAX WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund will have revenge on their mind after getting embarrassed two weeks ago — but they are ravaged with injuries. The Blue and Yellows are dependent on their superstar Erling Haaland but he has missed the last three matches with a thigh injury. Haaland averages 1.36 expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes this season — there may not be another team in the Champions League this season who is more dependent on one player. His substitute at striker, Donyell Malen, averages only 0.25 expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes. But Borussia Dortmund will be out another three players and four more players are in doubt to play this match. The Blue and Yellows have won three straight matches since the Haaland injury — but the competition has been soft. Two of the victories were against FC Cologne (on Saturday) and Arminia who are in 11th and 19th place in the Bundesliga — and their third win was against a lower-tiered domestic team in German Cup action. Ajax will not be looking past this team after enduring a disappointing 0-0 draw at Heracles on Saturday. The Sons of Gods have still won four of their last five matches with four clean sheets over that span. Ajax is a possession-dominant machine under manager Erik ten Hag. They have won eight of their first eleven matches in the Eredivisie top-flight league in the Netherlands. But this side is not just a domestic league giant. The Soccer Power Index at FiveThirtyEight ranks them 5th in the world. They have scored 11 goals in the Champions League which is just behind Bayern Munich. They lead all Champions League sides with 8.8 expected goals — and they lead all teams in this competition in expected goals differential. They are fourth in shots per 90 minutes and are tied for the lead in the competition in overall average shot quality. They crushed Sporting Lisbon by a 5-1 score on the road in Champions League earlier this season — a side that Borussia Dortmund won by just a 1-0 score with a healthy Haaland on the pitch. Sporting Lisbon is good — they won the Portugal Premier League last year that included a quality Porto side that reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League.
FINAL TAKE: Borussia Dortmund has scored 27 goals in the Bundesliga — but their expected goals drop to 21.13. That is the impact of the technical prowess of Haaland. He accounted for four of the Blue and Yellows ten shots in the first meeting between these teams last month. 25* UEFA Champions League Group C Match of the Month with Ajax (224249) with the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-18-21 |
Brentford v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Brentford (200193). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W1-D0-L3) earned their first points of the season with a 2-0 win at Watford last Saturday. Brentford (W1-D2-L1) suffered their first loss of the season in a 1-0 loss to Brighton and Hove Albion last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Disregard the early season record for the Wolves — this team has been impressive under first-year manager Bruno Lage. The Wanderers endured one of the most difficult opening three matches of the new season with contests against three teams that finished in the top-seven of the table last year in Manchester United, Tottenham, and Leicester City. Wolverhampton lost all three matches by a 1-0 score. The underlying metrics looked very good for this team going into last week where they finally scored their first goal of the 2021-22 campaign. The Wolves have only two goals in their four matches — but they registered 7.19 expected goals given their activity and locations of shots is sixth-best in the league. Striker Raul Jimenez has not been accurate with his leg — but he has been very active in creating scoring chances in his return to the pitch after suffering that scary head injury last November. Jimenez is a quality scorer who should find his finishing groove sooner rather than later. Attacking midfielder Adama Traore has thrived in the Lage’s system. The Wolves have remained strong on defense despite the departure of their previous manager Nuno Espirito Santo who took the higher-paying Tottenham skipper job. Wolverhampton has allowed only three goals — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 3.52 is the fifth-best mark in the league. Furthermore, the Wolves lead the EPL with the lowest xGA in open play (not set pieces). Lage has this group playing even better defense despite the tough opening schedule. Last season, the Wanderers had an xGA of 1.4 while allowing 1.9 Big Changes (35% or higher chance of scoring) per 90 minutes and 7.8 shots in the box per 90 minutes. This season, the Wolves have a 1.0 xGA with only 0.75 Big Chances allowed per 90 minutes and 5.5 shots allowed in the box per 90 minutes. Brentford has been an early surprise going unbeaten in their first three matches before allowing a late goal in stoppage time to then lose to the Seagulls last week. But Manager Thomas Frank’s team benefited from an easier schedule to start the season. Their opening 2-0 win against Arsenal was against a team that is simply a mess right now. Their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace and 1-1 draw to Aston Villa (sans Jack Grealish) were against two opponents that appear destined to be at the bottom half of the table. Brentford is a defensive club that has scored only three times this season — and their xG is just 4.46. They are at risk of getting blanked on the road against the best defensive team they have to play this season.
FINAL TAKE: It is dangerous to be dismissive of the promoted teams — but the Bees are facing a team with a similar profile on the road that has a more talented roster. These two teams last met on January 2nd in 2018 when both were in the second-tier Championship League. The Wolves dominated that match by a 3-0 score in their campaign that earned them the promotion to the English Premier League. They should earn a win at home at Molineaux Stadium. 10* EPL Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with the Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Brentford (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-21 |
Real Madrid +0.25 v. Inter Milan |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (224253) with the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224254). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (0-0-0) begins their Champions League campaign coming off a semifinals loss to Chelsea in this European competition last season. Inter Milan (0-0-0) failed to advance out of the Group Stage in last year’s Champions League in a group that included these Los Blancos.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos are a pick ‘em or a +0.25 goal-line underdog in this match because of injuries. Left-back Ferland Mendy and midfielder Dani Ceballos have yet to take the pitch for them this season. Real Madrid was also missing Gareth Bale, David Alaba, Toni Kroos, and Luka Jovic from their 5-2 victory at home against Celta Vigo in La Liga action on Sunday. To compound matters, veteran left tackle Marcelo suffered a thigh injury in Monday’s training session. New manager Carlo Ancelotti will likely be without seven starters for this match. But this is still Real Madrid — they are one of the few clubs in the world where their B-team backups would be serious threats to reach the Knockout Stage of this competition. And they still have regular starters Karim Benzema, Eden Hazard, and Vinicius Jr. as a scoring threat, the sublime Luka Modric patrolling the midfield along with new signee Eduardo Camavinga. Los Blancos have an embarrassment of riches of talent up and down their roster — and the bench players salivate at the opportunity to prove themselves in moments like this. Real Madrid’s form has been quite good despite the injuries. They are in first place in La Liga with three wins and a draw in their first four matches. Los Blancos dealt with a bevy of injuries last season so the roster is experienced. The club did move on from legendary manager Zinedine Zidane but they replaced him with another legend in Carlo Ancelotti who led this franchise to the Champions League title in 2013-14. Ancelotti proved his managing chops are still sharp with Everton in the English Premier League last season. Inter Milan comes off winning their first Serie A campaign in over a decade last season. But this team lost their best player, Romelu Lukaku, who signed a big contract to return to Chelsea in the offseason. Lukaku was Nerazzuri’s offense last season — the forward scored 30 goals in Serie A. Yet Inter Milan was just third in Serie A in expected goals and fifth in Shot Creating Actions — not great numbers in the less competitive Italian top flight. They have a new manager as well in Simone Inzaghi who replaced a former EPL champion manager in Antonio Conte. Inter Milan won the Champions League in 2009-10 — but this franchise has not been at the same level ever since. They have only qualified for this event five times — and they have reached the Knockout Stage just twice since 2010. Nerazzurri had won their first two Serie A matches before settling for a 2-2 draw at Sampdoria on Sunday. Inter Milan is just fifth in the league in expected points — and they are just seventh in expected goals which fuel my concern that their offensive attack takes a big step back without Lukaku. Inzaghi is without starting defender Alessandro Bastoni with a thigh injury. Perhaps the market is influenced by Inter Milan defeating Real Madrid in four of their last six opportunities to host them. But Los Blancos have won four of their last five meetings with Nerazzuri in European competitions. Real Madrid was good on the road last year in La Liga with a W12-D1-L6 record and the best-expected goal differential in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid won both matches against what seems like a better Inter Milan side in the Group Stage last season — and they controlled the expected goals by a 3.30-0.94 mark. La Liga is the second-best professional league in the world while Serie A is probably fourth. The worst-case scenario for Los Blancos is likely a draw. Let’s take our chances. 25* UEFA Champions League Group D Match of the Month with the Real Madrid (224253) with the goal-line versus the Inter Milan (224254). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-21 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. Norwich City |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W0-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after finishing in third place in the English Premier League last season. Norwich City (W0-D0-L0) was promoted back to the English top-flight after winning the Championship League last season.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Norwich City was last in the EPL two years ago when they finished in last place with a mere 21 points in 38 matches. There was a clear talent disparity between the Canaries and even mid-table teams. Norwich City responded by winning the Championship League — but they were fortunate. While they allowed only 36 goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) rose to a 52.5 mark which was ninth-worst in the league. That team also had the services of Emi Buendia who scored 15 goals and added 17 assists. The midfielder transferred to Aston Villa last week as that team made moves to compensate for the loss of Jack Grealish who signed a big contract with Manchester City. The Canaries will miss the 3.1 chances per game that Buendia provided — he was involved in 43% of the goals they scored last season. To compound matters, manager Daniel Farke is dealing with a COVID outbreak in the locker room leaving the team undermanned for their return to the EPL. Liverpool is rested for this match with star players like Mo Salah and Sadio Mane not involved with summer competition with their national teams. Injuries on their backline held the Reds back last season. And don’t underestimate the impact the compacted schedule due to COVID had on this team after a two-year run of winning the English Premier League title and competing deep into two Champions League campaigns. Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side ended strong by going unbeaten in their last ten matches — and they won their last five contests. Liverpool also grabbed 19 of the possible 21 points in their final seven road contests.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six trips to Carrow Road to play Norwich City. While I don’t usually like taking heavy road favorites in the EPL, the Reds enter this season with a chip on their shoulder. Rested and ready — with more talent and in better health — the Reds should roll. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Month with Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-01-21 |
Mexico v. United States |
Top |
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Mexico (234201) minus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with a 2-1 win against Canada on Thursday. The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 1-0 victory against Canada in the Semifinals on Thursday. This match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: El Tri will have revenge on their minds after losing to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League by a 3-2 score on June 6th. The respective rosters of both teams were the proverbial A-teams — so that was a big triumph for the United States. The top-ten players from that roster are now gone and training with their European professional teams. Manager Gregg Berhalter is using this tournament to build depth. Only Kellyn Acosta who started in the match with Mexico in June may be in the starting XI tonight. The Stars and Stripes have been pretty good in this tournament — with the benefit of playing on home soil. But they were shaky against Qatar on Thursday. The Maroon dominated play for much of that game while outshooting the Yanks by an 18-6 margin. It was a goal from Gyasi Zardes in the 86th minute to win that match. Six of the Americans’ ten goals were against Martinique, the minnows of this tournament. Winning this event will be icing on the cake for Berhalter. For this Mexico team, manager Gerardo “Tito” Martino has described winning this tournament as “an obligation” given the level of excitement in the country. While El Tri does not have some of their top players like Chicharito Hernandez and Raul Jimenez are not on this roster, Martino probably has assembled the B+ team to defend their 2019 Gold Cup title. Since the loss to the Americans in June, El Tri did not concede a goal until the 57th minute against a game Canada side on Thursday.
FINAL TAKE: This match will be played in Las Vegas at the new Allegiant Stadium — but the USMNT will not retain a familiarity edge since none of them have ever played on that pitch. I am not sure if the crowd advantage will be overwhelmingly pro-USA either with many fans expected to cheer for Mexico. The El Tri roster is more experienced and more talented than what the Yanks have in this tournament. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Mexico (234201) minibus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-29-21 |
Canada v. Mexico -1 |
|
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Mexico (234524) minus the goal-line versus Canada (234523) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W3-D1-L0) advanced from the Quarterfinals with their 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. Canada (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-0 victory against Costa Rica in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. This match is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Canada is far from full strength in its attack. Manager John Herdman has lost forwards Cyle Larin and Aho Akinola to injury — forcing him to call up Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele to the squad before the Quarterfinals. To compound matters, Vancouver White Caps forward Lucas Cavallini is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card of the tournament in the Quarterfinal against Costa Rica. The Canucks were already without their two best offensive players in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David who resumed their training in Europe for their professional clubs, Bayern Munich and Lille. To compound matters, Les Rouges are also without their center back Steven Vittoria who anchors their backline — and that is not a good sign for a defense that allowed all three of their Group Stage opponents to score. The Canadiens' win against Costa Rica was against a Ticos side playing without their top goalkeeper who was suspended for the match. Mexico may have played their best match in the tournament with their 3-0 victory against an albeit depleted Honduras side dealing with a COVID outbreak. Despite only scoring four times in the Group Stage, the shot and possessions numbers were solid. And El Tri has a stout defense. They have yet to surrender a goal in this tournament. Mexico has not allowed a goal in their last seven matches after losing to the USMNT in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations Cup last month.
FINAL TAKE: Mexico manager Gerardo “Tito” Martino has claimed winning this tournament is “an obligation.” While Canada is on the rise, El Tri remains the superior program who brought a better team to this event — and who have not been hit as hard by the injury and suspension bug. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Thursday Late Show Bailout with Mexico (234524) minus the goal-line versus Canada (234523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-21 |
Jamaica +1.25 v. United States |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
50 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W2-D0-L1) comes off a 1-0 loss to Costa Rica in their final Group Stage match on Tuesday. The USMNT (W3-D0-L0) earned a perfect record in the Group Stage with their 1-0 win against Canada last Sunday. This match will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Stars and Stripes were not really tested before the match with Canada last week in this tournament. Haiti and Martinique were not competitive in the Group Stage. And while Team USA scored in the opening minute against the Canucks, they looked shaky on defense in the second half of that match. The Americans also lost a key member of their backline when captain Walker Zimmerman left the game in the first half with an injury that will keep him out the rest of the tournament. Zimmerman was the 2020 MLS Defensive Player of the Year — so his absence is a big loss. Manager Gregg Berhalter was already relying on younger players for this event with the key players from the group that won the CONCACAF Nations League title last month now training for their professional leagues in Europe. This is a B team competing for the Gold Cup — there is no Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Zack Stefan, and Josh Sargent on this roster. The top ten players on the roster, as rated by the transfer market analytics, are not playing in this event. Team chemistry and cohesion — as well as experience in international competitions — remain question marks. Jamaica has an experienced roster made up of a core of players that have reached three straight Semifinals in the Gold Cup. While they lost their last match to Costa Rica last week, manager Theodore Whitmore was able to rest players since they had already qualified for the Knockout Stage. The Reggae Boyz get Bobby Reid back for this match after being on the COVID list — he has recent English Premier League experience. Wing Leon Bailey plays for Bayer Leverkusen. Forward Corey Burke, defenseman Alvas Powell, and keeper Andre Blake all star for Philadelphia Union in the MLS.
FINAL TAKE: Jamaica will be confident they can pull the upset against this roster of Americans after their recent experiences against them in this tournament. They lost to the Stars and Stripes by a 3-1 score in the 2019 Gold Cup Semifinals only after Pulisic scored his second goal in the 87th minute. Pulisic is not playing today. The Reggae Boyz lost to the USMNT in the 2017 Semifinals by just a 2-1 score —and they upset them in the 2015 Gold Cup Semifinals by a 2-1 score. They may not win, but they should keep it close with extra time a distinct possibility. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-24-21 |
Honduras v. Mexico -1 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Mexico (234238) minus the goal-line versus Honduras (234237) in the Quarterfinals of the Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W2-D1-L0) claimed first place in Group A with their 1-0 victory against El Salvador last Sunday. Honduras (W2-D0-L1) settled for second place in Group D with their 2-0 loss to Qatar. This match will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: I considered Honduras in this match — but a pair of injuries in their match against Qatar and then a COVID outbreak in their camp leaves them severely undermanned to pull the upset in this match. The COVID outbreak that was announced earlier today will remove two starters from the pitch and impact their depth — from what I can tell from the reports drifting out. CF Montreal striker Romell Quioto is not in their starting XI after he left the Qatar match just 26 minutes into the contest with a leg injury. With 25-year wing Alberth Ellis already out of the tournament with a broken toe, that leaves Los Catrachos without a forward on the roster who plays outside their domestic league. Of even bigger concern is that their captain, Maynor Figueroa, also left the Qatar match before halftime with a knock. The 41-year-old Houston Dynamo defender is starting tonight — but is that out of necessity? He may not be at 100%. Frankly, his injury status had me dismiss an Under play I was seriously considering as well. This could be a route for Mexico. Honduras’ opening 4-0 victory against Grenada was against the worst team in the tournament. Allowing Panama to score twice is a warning sign about the shape of their defense (even when healthy). The four goals they have allowed in this event are the highest amongst the eight quarterfinal teams. Los Catrachos did not manage a shot on goal against Qatar earlier this week. Now they face a Mexico side that has six straight clean sheets — and they have only allowed three shots on target in their three matches in this tournament. El Tri is missing some of their firepower up top. Raul Jimenez is training with Wolverhampton for his return to the English Premier League. Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez is in the doghouse of manager Gerardo Martinez so he was left off the squad (and he is dealing with a knock this summer). Then Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffered a tournament-ending head injury in their opening match against Trinidad & Tobago. Mexico has scored only one goal in their two matches that were not against Guatemala. But El Tri still has attacking talent that every other team in this tournament would love to have — especially Jesus “Tecatito” Corona and Alan Pulido — and Rogelio Funes Mori had a brace in his opening match in this tournament. Mexico’s possession and shot numbers in the Group Stage were good — they played two of their matches against sides playing five in the back that had hot goalkeepers. It happens.
FINAL TAKE: Another clean sheet for Mexico is likely. El Tri should score — and that will force Honduras to play more openly. Rumors have it that their manager, Fabian Coito, is also out with COVID. These two teams played to a 0-0 draw in a friendly on June 12th — but the circumstances are much different this time around. Mexico has depth that Honduras simply does not have. The injuries and COVID outbreak are devastating. 20* CONCACAF Gold Cup Saturday Late Show Bailout with Mexico (234238) minus the goal-line versus Honduras (234237). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
England v. Italy |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126) in the Finals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W5-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Euro 2020 with their 2-1 win against Denmark on Wednesday. Italy (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 4-2 penalty kick shootout win against Spain that resolved their 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play on Tuesday. This match will be played at Wembley Field in London.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: While some have criticized manager Gareth Southgate for his starting XI selections, I think he has been brilliant in shaping this talented roster into a defensive-first group. Defensive tactics tend to be rewarded in international tournaments — and defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group in their recent major tournaments. The Three Lions have only conceded one goal in this tournament — and they have yet to concede a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with a 35% or higher expected rate of return. They have allowed only 3.59 expected goals in this tournament which is the lowest mark in the event. After allowing a goal to Denmark in the 30th minute, England locked down the Danes to just two shots and a mere 0.3 expected goals in the second half. And while Southgate has been criticized for not doing enough to get the English attack going, they have generated 2.24 expected goals per match in their three Knockout Stage matches. Italy was outplayed by Spain according to the analytics with them losing the expected goals battle by a 1.74-0.78 xG margin. La Roja exposed a vulnerability of the Azzurri down the middle with their savvy veteran pair of center backs Leonardi Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini being talented but both have lost a step or two. England has better finishing talent at forward with the likes of Harry Kane and the in-form Raheem Sterling (amongst an embarrassment of riches of talent). Italy was outstanding in the Group Stage — but they did benefit from a weak trio of competitors in Turkey, Wales, and a solid but unspectacular Switzerland side. They needed extra time against Austria before catching a break against Belgium in the Quarterfinals with them playing with Eden Hazard. Italy is also without left back Leonardo Spinazzola who suffered a ruptured Achilles against Belgium. Not only does Spinazzola important to their backline, but he played an important role in the Italian attack as a left wing.
FINAL TAKE: England has the advantage playing on their home soil — so they have a familiarity edge along with the home crowd and referees responding to the cheering fans. Ultimately, the talent on England’s roster is superior to that of Italy. The English Premier League outshines Serie A currently. And the Three Lions have been building to this moment since their Round of 16 finish in the 2016 Euro before reaching the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup. Italy failed to qualify for the most recent World Cup. 25* Euro 2020 Match of the Year with England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-21 |
Argentina v. Brazil -0.25 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brazil (234430) minus the goal-line versus Argentina (234429) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
REASONS TO BRAZIL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. The Selecao lead all teams in this tournament with a net expected goal differential of +12.43 — and that includes the Ecuador match with their B-team. Brazil also has the best defense in the event and the best keeper in Manchester City’s starter Ederson (and the second-best keeper in his back-up Alisson who stars for Liverpool). The Selecao does not have the services of Gabriel Jesus tonight as he serves the second game of his two-game suspension from being issued a red card with a reckless cleats-out high kick in the Quarterfinals match against Chile. That might be addition by subtraction as the Man City forward has not progressed beyond a poacher that benefits from more talented teammates. Argentina comes off a shootout scare against a Colombia team that only beat Peru in the final minute of extra time last night (thankfully …). Their expected goals process is good at +11.07 net expected goal differential — but their numbers are propped up with a 4-1 win against Bolivia who was the worst team in the tournament. La AlbiCeleste has scored only seven goals in five matches if you overlook the Bolivia cakewalk. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack.
FINAL TAKE: The Lionel Messi Narrative of him still seeking his first international title is compelling — but he simply does not have the supporting cast against this loaded Brazil team. The Selecao have the better metrics — even before Argentina’s bloated numbers versus Bolivia and their second-string playing Ecuador is taken into account. Brazil has the better defense. They have an extra day of rest. They have the significant benefit of home soil — so the familiarity of Maracana Stadium and the pressure of the refs accommodating the home team are advantages. And Neymar is motivated for Brazil since he has never lifted a Copa America trophy for his national team after being injured in 2019. The Selecao can repeat as Copa America champions for the first time since 2007. 10* Copa America Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Brazil (234430) minus the goal-line versus Argentina (234429). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-21 |
Colombia -0.5 v. Peru |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Colombia (234425) minus the goal-line versus Peru (234426) in the Third Place Playoff Match in Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D1-L3) lost a heartbreaker in the Semifinals of the Copa America in a 3-2 loss to Argentina in the shootout after a 1-1 score after regulation time on Tuesday. Peru (W3-D1-L2) lost a narrow 1-0 loss to Brazil in their Semifinals match on Monday. This match will be played at the Estadio Nacional de Brasilia in Brasilia, Brazil.
REASONS TO TAKE COLOMBIA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: After a slow start to the tournament, the Colombians have steadily improved. They only lost 2-1 to Brazil before outlasting a quality Uruguay side via penalty kicks in the Quarterfinals and then playing Lionel Messi and Argentina very close in the Semifinals. This team had to adjust to being without their best player, James Rodriguez after the Everton midfielder ended his English Premier League campaign with an injury that kept him out of his last two matches. Colombia has won the expected goals battle in four of their six matches — with the only xG losses being to Argentina and Brazil who will be playing in the Finals tomorrow night. While they have scored only four goals, they have an expected goals mark of 6.89. Peru has been leaky on defense — they have surrendered 11 goals with the expected goals even worse with a 13.47 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Los Incas have lost the expected goals battle in five of their six matches in this tournament — so they have been fortunate to advance this far. Brazil generated 2.57 expected goals in their Semifinals match on Monday but could only score one time. Peru is one of the better sides in South America — they competed in the 2018 World Cup where they won a match but did not advance into the Knockout Stage. But Los Incas are struggling to qualify for the 2022 World Cup as they are currently last in their qualifying group.
FINAL TAKE: Colombia will have a motivational edge for this contest after losing to Peru in the Group Stage of this event on June 20th by a 2-1 score. Los Cafeteros won the expected goals battle by a 1.66 to 1.00 mark but still lost the match to Los Incas. Look for an improving Colombia team to exact revenge. 25* Copa America FS2-TV Match of the Year with Colombia (234425) minus the goal-line versus Peru (234426). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-21 |
Denmark v. England -0.5 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-150 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing England (234122) minus the goal-line versus Denmark (234121) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W4-D1-L0) reached the Semifinals of the Euro 2020 with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine on Saturday. Denmark (W3-D0-L2) has won three straight matches after their 2-1 win against the Czech Republic on Saturday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Momentum is an important consideration when handicapping soccer — particularly international soccer in these short-season tournaments. The Three Lions come off their best effort of the tournament with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine. England limited Ukraine to just 0.26 expected goals while producing their fifth straight clean sheet in this event. The defensive effort for manager Gareth Southgate has been almost flawless. They have given up the second-fewest shot-creating actions — and they have allowed the third-fewest passes into the penalty area. While England Soccer Twitter bashes Southgate for not playing more of the bigger names on the roster that put up big scoring numbers in the English Premier League, he has emphasized defensive tactics first (and second) while being able to rely on an embarrassment of riches of attacking talent if his team needs to score goals late in the match. The Three Lions get Bukayo Saku back from a knock that kept him out of the Quarterfinals match — the 19-year-old Arsenal midfielder is a good defensive player who offers speed on the outside. England also has the best win of these two sides with their victory against Germany. Denmark looked tired in the second half in their 2-1 victory against the Czechs. They lost the expected goals battle, 1.70-1.61, in that match — although the game state needs to be taken into account that the Red and Whites took a 2-0 lead going into the second half so they had the cushion to play defensively. Denmark is playing great — and the laptops love them. But good analytics only go so far when dealing with small sample sizes. The Danes have simply not had a difficult road. They played in a weak group that included Russia and Finland. I give Denmark a pass for the loss to the Finns given the scary incident with Christian Eriksen. Their most difficult opponent in the Group Stage was against Belgium in their other loss in this tournament. Backers can point to the Red and Whites winning the expected goals battle — but taking game state into account is a two-way street. Belgium scored their two goals in the second half once Kevin DeBruyne entered the match at halftime. The trip to the Semifinals was as soft as possible facing an aging Wales team and a decent, at best, Czech side.
FINAL TAKE: Denmark has emotion on their side given how they have rallied together around Eriksen. But England has the significant home soil edge. 65,000 fans help — and so does the impact those screaming supporters have on the referee. The Three Lions are very comfortable and familiar with the pitch. The Danes benefited from playing their three group stage matches on home soil. Ultimately, England has the better roster from top-to-bottom. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Match of the Year with England (234122) minus the goal-line versus Denmark (234121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Colombia v. Argentina -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D1-L0) has won four straight matches with their 3-0 victory against Ecuador in the Quarterfinals on Saturday. Colombia (W2-D1-L2) outlasted Uruguay by a 4-2 count in the penalty kick shootout after a scoreless match after regulation time in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE ARGENTINA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia pulled a surprising upset against Uruguay — but they are underachieving in this tournament. They limped into this tournament with two losses in World Cup qualifying matches — and they have now only won three of their last seven matches. They lost to Peru and settled for a scoreless draw against Venezuela in matches they were favored to win. They have only scored three times in their five matches. The starting XI missed their star midfielder James Rodriguez after he was left off the roster because of the calf injury that kept him out of the last two matches for Everton in the English Premier League. They managed only 0.61 expected goals against Uruguay on Saturday. They only generated 0.29 expected goals in their final Group Stage match against Brazil. Argentina is rounding into form with seven goals in their last two matches while allowing just one goal. Lionel Messi has scored four goals and assisted on four other goals in his five matches in this tournament. La Albiceleste has scored 10 times while conceding just twice — and they notched an impressive clean sheet against Uruguay, who is probably the third-best team in the tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Messi has still not led Argentina to a major championship — so he should be very motivated to lead his team to a title match with Brazil. 25* Copa America Semifinals Match of the Year with Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Spain v. Italy |
|
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Italy (234117) with the goal-line versus Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16. The Italians will miss left back Leonardo Spinazzola who ruptured his Achilles’ tendon late in the second half against Belgium. Italy should still have enough talent to outplay this Spanish team. Spain had a man-advantage at the 77th minute against Switzerland — but they could not score a second goal to take command of that match. They were fortunate that the Swiss missed four penalty kicks in what was a meager display from both sides. While Spain has been very active, they lack finishing talent. Their main attacker, Alvaro Morata, is more of a poacher than a clinical finisher. It is not surprising that La Roja’s 12 goals are far below their expected goals of 17.58 xG. The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.
FINAL TAKE: Fatigue may play a role in this match. Spain has played 120 minutes in each of their last two matches while Italy took care of Belgium in 90 minutes. La Roja has earned plenty of frequent flyer miles over the last two weeks with trips from Spain to Copenhagen and then to Saint Petersburg and now to London. Italy played all three of their Group Stage matches in Rome before a match at Wembley in the Round of 16 and then Munich in the Quarterfinals against Belgium. Not only did they travel fewer miles, but they have recent experience on this pitch. 10* Euro 2020 Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Italy (234117) with the goal-line versus Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-21 |
Peru v. Brazil -1.75 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-119 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Brazil (234418) minus the goal-line versus Peru (234417) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
REASONS TO TAKE BRAZIL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes. The Selecao has a good chance of producing another clean sheet against the Peruvians tonight. They have three clean sheets in this tournament — and they allowed only two goals overall. They have allowed the fewest passed into the penalty area for all teams in the event. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Peru is last of the eight teams that reached the Quarterfinals in passes and carries into the opponent’s penalty area. They lost the expected goals battle in their upset win against Colombia and their draw with Ecuador. While Brazil has a net goal differential of +9 and an expected net goal differential of +11.69, Peru has been outscored by two goals — and they have an expected net goal differential of -3.2.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 10* Copa American Peru-Brazil FS1-TV Special with Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
England -1 v. Ukraine |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 victory against Germany on Tuesday. Ukraine (W2-D0-L2) defeated Sweden, 2-1, in the Round of 16. This match is being played on a neutral field at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had Sweden in that Round of 16 match with Ukraine. The Yellow-Blue took the lead with a goal from Oleksandr Zinchenko in the 27th minute before the Swedes tied the score 16 minutes later. Sweden outplayed Ukraine for most of the match but could not score the winning goal in regulation (ruining our play). But the Ukrainians seized the upper hand when Sweden was issued a red card in the 99th minute. Ukraine then generated 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals with the man advantage with Artem Dovbyk scoring the winning at 120+1 minutes just before going to penalty kicks. Rather fortunate, once again. Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Entering this match, Ukraine is last of the teams in the quarterfinals by starting only 3.5 possessions per 90 minutes in the final third of the field. They are also last of the final eight teams by letting their opponents start 10.6 possessions per 90 minutes in their final third. England is loaded with talent. Manager Gareth Southgate has his team playing very cautiously — but that is why they have not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Opponents are averaging just 0.08 expected goals per shot attempt, the third-lowest of the quarterfinalists They are allowing the third-fewest passes leading to a shot, and the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions. And while the Three Kings are not peppering the opposing keepers with many shots, they are averaging 0.18 expected goals per shot attempt, the highest mark of the eight teams in the quarterfinals. With wins over Germany, Croatia, and the Czech Republic, England has defeated three opponents that made the Knockout Stage and who would all probably defeat this Ukraine side.
FINAL TAKE: Take away the 21 minutes when they had the man advantage against Sweden along with their match against North Macedonia (perhaps the worst team in the tournament) — Ukraine has a -3.19 expected goal differential. They should finally get exposed this afternoon. 25* Euro 2020 ABC-TV Match of the Year with England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-21 |
Italy v. Belgium +0.5 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-165 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Belgium (234106) plus the goal-line versus Italy (234105) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Belgium (W4-D0-L0) survived Portugal by a 1-0 score in their Round of 16 match last Sunday. Italy (W4-D0-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-1 win against Austria last Saturday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE BELGIUM PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Italians have allowed only one goal in this event with Croatia scoring in the 114th minute to snap their streak of over 1000 minutes without allowing a goal. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season - — he lacks a clinical finish. They were scoreless in regulation time against Austria before finding the back of the net twice in the extra time period. Belgium is allowing 0.17 shots per possession in this event — but they are limiting their opponents to just 0.07 expected goals (xG) per shot attempt which is the best mark in the tournament. The Red Devils’ backline may be old — but they veterans with tons of experience in international and club play. Belgium may also have the best keeper in the world in Real Madrid’s Thibault Courtois. The biggest problem for manager Roberto Martinez is the potential absence of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard who both left the match against Portugal with injuries in the second half. They are game-time decisions. While Romelu Lukaku is the goal scorer up top, De Bruyne and Hazard are vital to the Belgium attack. Yet even if the Red Devils are without one or two of those star players, this is a veteran team that has lost only three matches in their last 58 contests since September of 2016.
FINAL TAKE: Belgium is ranked number one in the world by FIFA — and I consider them overrated from that perspective. I thought Italy was undervalued entering this tournament — but four straight wins have flipped the narrative too much. The Azzurri have benefited from playing a weak set of opponents — and it is not often that Belgium is an underdog. This match could easily go to extra time. And the icing on the cake is that DeBruyne is expected to play. 10* Euro 2020 Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Belgium (234106) plus the goal-line versus Italy (234105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-21 |
Spain -0.75 v. Switzerland |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Spain (234101) minus the goal-line versus Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.
REASONS TO TAKE SPAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Spain has a +7 goal differential in their four matches which includes playing two solid teams in their Group in Sweden and Poland before defeating a capable Croatia side that reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup. Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. The Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes. Their upset of France was impressive — but, truth be told, the reigning World Cup champions were disorganized on defense which exposed their weaknesses down the middle with that squad this summer. The Swiss beat a bad Turkey team in the Group Stage while only managing a draw against an aging Wales side. Italy crushed them 3-0 while winning the expected goals battle by a 2.50-0.25 margin.
FINAL TAKE: I expect a bit of an emotional letdown from the Swiss after pulling off the upset of the tournament. If and when Spain scores first, the bubble will burst for this solid but perennially unspectacular Switzerland side. 10* Euro 2020 Spain-Switzerland ESPN Special with Spain (234101) minus the goal-line versus Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-21 |
Ukraine v. Sweden |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W2-D1-L0) enters the Knockout Stage after their 3-2 win against Poland last Wednesday. Ukraine (W1-D0-L2) comes off a 1-0 loss to Austria eight days ago on June 21st. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Hampden Park in Glasgow, Scotland.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Sweden is solid if unspectacular. RB Leipzig midfielder Emil Forsberg is the real deal. The Blue and Yellow have two exciting young players in 17-year-old Alexander Isak and 20-year-old Dejan Kulusevski who play for Real Sociedad and Juventus. Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof is a quality center back. This is the Swedes’ sixth straight Euro. A scoreless draw with Spain is a quality result. Beating Slovakia and Poland are results much more impressive than a win against North Macedonia. This group has allowed only two goals in the Group Stage.
FINAL TAKE: The secret weapon of the Swedes in manager Janne Andersson who is on a five-year run with the national team including an improbable Quarterfinals run in the 2018 World Cup despite not having talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the squad. Sweden is a hotbed for soccer talent, and Andersson is a tactical wizard. The Blue and Yellow will outclass the Yellow-Blue. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Match of the Year with Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Portugal +0.25 v. Belgium |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162) in their Round of 16 match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Portugal (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout State of this tournament with their 2-2 draw with France on Wednesday. Belgium (W3-D0-L0) completed their perfect Group Stage with a 2-0 victory against Finland last Monday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at the Estadio de La Cartuja in Seville, Spain.
REASONS TO TAKE PORTUGAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Portugal is ranked 5th in the world by FIFA with the ELO Ratings that rely on head-to-head metrics confirming that fifth place world standing. I agree — and I think this is the best roster A Selecao has had since the 2010 World Cup when I started seriously handicapping international soccer. Portugal has won the 2016 Euro and reached the Knockout Stage of the 2018 World Cup. The quality of the national team’s roster was validated when they won the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019. Portugal survived the Group of Death with an impressive draw against the reigning World Cup champions in France in a result they had to have. The opened this tournament with an impressive 3-0 win against Hungary who later played France and Germany very tough. I don’t issue too many demerits for the Portuguese’s 4-2 loss to the Germans in their second Group Stage match. Germany is very good and they needed the win after losing their opening match to France. A Selecao’s path to the Knockout Stage was pretty much assured after they grabbed the three points from Hungary. With Cristiano Ronaldo who has been the talisman for this team since that 2010 World Cup, Portugal has one of the best players in the world still with tons of high-pressure experience. The nation is a hot bed of talent — and they have produced a new generation of great players like Atletico Madrid’s Joao Felix, Paris-Saint Germain’s Danilo, and Man City’s Ruben Dias. This roster is so loaded that Manchester United’s key midfielder Bruno Fernandes may not be in the starting XI — but he will be a super sub if veteran manager Fernando Santos needs scoring in the second half of the match. A Selecao also has some key veterans from the 2016 Euro run in Man City’s Bernardo Silva, Porto’s Pepe in back, and keeper Rui Patricio. Belgium is also loaded with talent amidst their golden generation — but they have yet to earn silverware and I have yet to see them triumph in a big match. They lost to France in the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup after getting upset by an overmatched Wales team in the 2016 Euro. Eden Hazard has fitness issues — as it seems to have been the case for the last two years after transferring from Chelsea to Real Madrid. He has been a disappointment ever since (and the Blues never looked back after losing him after winning the Champions League last month). Kevin De Bruyne is sublime in the midfield — and he looks fit again — but their midfield group are not adept at forcing turnovers. The backline for the Red Devils is a vulnerability — their center backs are getting old and their wing backs are only average. Belgium looked great in the Group Stage — but Finland and Russia are weak opponents. Denmark looks better than I expected — but it is telling that the Red Devils lost the expected goals battle to the Danes playing without Cristian Eriksen by a 1.99-0.82 xG score. Portugal beat France in expected goals by a 2.36 to 1.81 xG margin.
FINAL TAKE: Portugal won the 2016 Euro despite only one victory in regulation time. I watched them over-and-over deploy defensive tactics to grind out low-scoring matches before Ronaldo would find a way to win — until the Finals when Ronaldo was injured but his teammates found a way to win. I think these defensive tactics will work against Belgium — they are the more experienced team in these matches. The Red Devils may win — but I suspect their route to victory is through extra-time or the final penalty kick tie-breaker and we will have covered at +0.25 goals (or pushed if you get a pick ‘em line) in regulation time. A Portugal upset win in regulation time is also very live for this one. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Match of the Year with Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-21 |
Scotland v. Croatia |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
|
06-13-21 |
Ukraine v. Netherlands -1 |
|
2-3 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Netherlands (234026) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234025) in their opening match in Group C play. THE SITUATION: The Netherlands enter this tournament having last played on Sunday of last week where they defeated Georgia by a 3-0 score in a friendly. Ukraine last played on Monday in a 4-0 victory over Cyprus in a friendly.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETHERLANDS MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Flying Dutchmen are missing some key players in Liverpool star defender Virgil Van Dijk, Manchester United midfielder Donny Van de Beek, and goalie Jasper Cillessen — but Holland is a soccer hotbed and this team is loaded with young talent. The Netherlands are playing in their first major international tournament since the 2014 World Cup. That golden generation reached the Semifinals of that 2014 World Cup after losing in the finals in 2010. This may the dawning of a new golden generation after (now previous) manager Ronald Koeman overhauled the roster over the last few years. The Oranje have exciting young talent like Barcelona 24-year-old Frenkie de Jong and Juventus defender Matthijs de Ligt. Koeman led the team to a second-place finish in the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019 where they lost the championship game to Portugal. They finished in second place to Germany in the Euro qualifiers — but they did defeat the Germans on their home field. They held their opponents to just 1.03 expected goals in those matches. Take away their two high-scoring matches against Germany — the Dutch have held their other most recent nine opponents to 5.33 combined expected goals. They also ranked third of all teams in the World Cup qualifiers by averaging 2.84 expected goals — and they generated a healthy 4.60 expected goals in their two matches against Germany in the Euro qualifiers. What this group may not have in major international tournament experience, they make up for in internal cohesion with plenty of experience playing with each other. Ukraine is overrated. They were near the bottom of all teams in total chances created in the Euro qualifiers. While they finished in first place in the Euro qualifiers, they only had a +0.9 net expected goals differential. They are unbeaten in their Euro and World Cup qualifiers approaching this event — but they lost the expected goals battle in five of those eleven matches. Perhaps their last-place finish in their group in the UEFA Nations League competition is closer to what this team is.
FINAL TAKE: Most of the Ukrainian roster is made up of players from e Ukrainian Premier League that is ranked 12th best in the world. Only 29% of the team plays outside that professional league. The Blue and Yellows lack major international tournament experience as well having not played in the 2018 World Cup. 10* Euro 2020 Ukraine-Netherlands ESPN Special with the Netherlands (234026) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234025). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Chelsea v. Manchester City -0.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Manchester City advances to the Champions League Final with their 4-1 aggregate score victory against Paris-Saint Germain that culminated on May 4th. Chelsea reached the Finals with their 3-1 aggregate score win against Porto in the Champions League Semifinals that concluded on May 5th. This match is being played on a neutral field in Porto, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester City has the opportunity to coronate their dominance of European football with a victory in this match. They have already won the English Premier League title for the third time in the last four seasons by a dominant 14 point margin. But a European title is what has eluded this franchise under manager Pep Guardiola — and he has never won this trophy despite all his previous successes at Barcelona and Bayern Munich. This match means everything — and it is a long time coming for this squad to get the opportunity. Man City comes in ideal circumstances. They are healthy. They are in good form — their last match was an easy 5-0 win at home against Everton last Sunday. They are rested since Guardiola has had the luxury to rotate players to prepare for this showdown all month since they have had the EPL wrapped up for weeks. Chelsea has been a great story since Thomas Tuchel took over as their manager in late January — but cracks are finally showing with the weight of expectations hits this team. The Blues have lost three of their last four matches. For me, the canary in the coal mine was their 1-0 loss to Leicester City in the FA Cup Finals on May 15th. That is a match they should have won to win their first trophy under Tuchel. Instead, the team played tentative and looked overwhelmed by the moment. They avenged that loss three days later in an EPL match — but then in an important final EPL league match to secure placement in the Champions League next year, they laid an egg on the road against Aston Villa on Sunday in a 2-1 loss. This team is losing important recent matches. Chelsea is a team that is lacking in confidence right now. This is a very talented team — but their ascendance to the Champions League Final is perhaps premature to the realistic plan. After winning the EPL title in 2016-17 with a veteran team, the writing was on the wall that a youth movement would need to be embraced. That was the plan when former star player, Frank Lampard, was brought in as their manager last season. After an encouraging season amidst COVID where the younger players showed great promise, management brought in some high-priced transfers to add star power to the group. Kai Havertz and Timo Werner may have outstanding careers in the EPL — but their numbers were disappointing. They are still very young — and that is the rub about this team. While bursting with talent (albeit not necessarily more talented than Man City), this group is just inexperienced in big moments like this. Outside of the immaculate N’Gole Kante who has won EPL titles for Leicester City and Chelsea, as well as a World Cup for France, the Blues, are a roster filled with players that lack playing vital roles in championship runs either for their professional club or their national team. On the other hand, Man City is filled with players with tons of important matches during this four-year run under Guardiola.
FINAL TAKE: If there was any chance that Man City was taking this match lightly, those prospects are lone gone when considering that Chelsea has defeated them twice in the last six weeks. They played on April 17th in the FA Cup Semifinals — an important match — which the Blues won by a 1-0 score. They then played on May 8th in the EPL reverse fixture where Chelsea won again (and Man City did not go out of their way to not play important players) by a 1-0 score. Man City did win the expected goals battle in both those matches but just had bad luck with the final score. It will be very difficult for Chelsea to defeat this team three times in a row. Look for Man City to play one of their best matches in the Guardiola era to overwhelm a Blues side that may be happy to be here. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with the Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-21 |
Villarreal v. Manchester United -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus Real Villarreal (224401) in the Finals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United reached the Finals of the Europa League after a 3-2 loss at home to Roma on May 6th which secured their 8-5 aggregate goal victory. Real Villarreal reached the Finals after a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on May 6th gave them a 2-1 aggregate score win. This match will be played on a neutral field in Gdansk, Poland.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The challenge in handicapping this match is assessing how significant a loss it is for Man United to likely be without Harry Maguire. Their starting center back has been out most of the month with a knee injury that kept him out of training for this match. The Red Devils' backline defense has looked disheveled without the stabilizing influence that Maguire provides. Maguire is also third in the English Premier League for the most carry yards with the ball going towards the opposition goal — he plays an undervalued in their attack despite not generating a ton of goals or assists. His loss is significant (and I assume he will not make a miraculous recovery, although it sometimes happens in these championship matches). Eric Bailly will likely take his place — he is a solid defender but not the same talent with the ball. Man United has only won twice in their last six matches — but I this team has not had much at stake since reaching the finals of this competition. They have pretty much had second place in the EPL clinched for the last few weeks. Even without an important piece in Maguire, this remains a team that finished ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea in the English Premier League, one team that won the EPL last year, and another club that is playing Man City on Saturday the European Champions League title. The EPL was — by far — the strongest league in Europe this year, and here comes their second-place team. And after manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer did not play his starters on Sunday in their 2-1 victory at Wolverhampton, his starters are rested and ready. Villarreal comes off a 2-1 loss at Real Madrid on Saturday which had them finish in sixth place in La Liga this season. The Spanish top flight was down this season — Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid did not find much success in European competitions. Man United dominated a Sevilla side by a 4-0 aggregate score in the Round of 32 of this tournament that finished in fifth place, four points clear of Real Villarreal. Manager Unai Emery deploys a conservative approach — the Yellow Submarine are not likely to be aggressive in attacking Man United missing Maguire on their backline.
FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, Manchester United still has too much talent on the pitch for Real Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine may not have one of their best players either with midfielder Samuel Chukwueze having not played since getting injured in the second leg against Arsenal. There is a difference in class between these two teams — even without Maguire — that makes a victory at least one goal in regulation time the likely result. 25* Europa League Match of the Year with Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus Real Villarreal (224401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-21 |
Leicester v. Chelsea -0.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (200066) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200065). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W18-D10-L8) returns to English Premier League action this afternoon after losing to Arsenal last Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Leicester City (W20-D6-L10) comes off a 2-0 victory against Manchester United last Tuesday in their most recent EPL match.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues are in a big revenge spot after getting upset against this Leicester City side on Saturday in the finals of the FA Cup. We had Chelsea in that match — so that result was a major disappointment. Yet, there was nothing from that match that changes my tune on the Blues for this rematch. Chelsea outshot the Foxes by a 13-6 margin while holding them to only one shot on target. Unfortunately, that one shot turned out to be a goal for Youri Tieleman. Expected goals data is not available for FA Cup matches (or, I can’t find this data) — but from the numbers and the eye-test, the Blues out-played Leicester City. The biggest problem for them was — once again — a bad error by Jorginho opening up the scoring chance for their opponents. That is the second straight time that Jorginho made a crucial mistake as that is how Arsenal scored their goal last week. Jorginho will be benched for Mateo Kovacic who has been injured but was available over the weekend. These recent results should ensure an attentive locker room for manager Thomas Tuchel who has been an instant success at Stamford Bridge. Tuchel is taking a second team to the Champions League Final for the second straight season after leading Paris Saint-Germain to that championship game last summer. The Blues have only lost four times in 27 matches since Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard who was overmatched as the Chelsea skipper. I am not terribly surprised about the rise of this Blues team. They finished top-four in the English Premier League last summer with a nice core of young players. They then got out their checkbooks in the transfer window to bring in some of the best young European talents in the world in Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, and Hakim Ziyech. While perhaps each of those players has struggled at times adjusting to English Football during a pandemic (Havertz, in particular, overcame a tough bout with COVID that held back his conditioning in the fall). But the addition of these players gave Tuchel a roster simply loaded with talent. To his credit, Tuchel is a player’s coach who makes each player feel valuable with clear expectations of what he wants on the pitch. His implementation of a 3-4-2-1 formation made an immediate improvement in the defensive play of this team. Chelsea has 12 clean sheets in their 18 EPL matches under Tuchel. N’Golo Kante had a knock midweek for the match with Arsenal but he is expected to play this afternoon. Kante remains one of the best two or three holding midfielders in the world. What does the 2015-16 Leicester City EPL championship, the 2016-17 Chelsea EPL championship, and the France World Cup championship in 2018 all have in common? Kante. And the big advantage Tuchel has in this match is a rested and well-rotated roster of quality players. Leicester City is showing signs of fatigue. They lost eleven days ago at home to a Newcastle United side that barely escaped relegation. Losing sometimes happens on any given match day — but surrendering four goals to the Magpies with the Toon Army generated 3.49 xG is a bad sign. When the Foxes are at full strength, they are a dangerous team against any of the best teams in the EPL. But the continued absence of Harvey Barnes, James Justin, and Wes Morgan not only robs manager Brendan Rodgers of talent, but he has had to rely on his same starting XI match-after-match as they strive to not only win the FA Cup but also qualify for next year’s Championship League (and the money it brings in) by finishing in the top-four in the EPL table. The Foxes’ 2-1 win against Man United on Tuesday — but they benefited from facing a heavily-rotated Red Devils’ side that was playing the middle game of a brutal stretch of three matches in five days.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City is in an emotional letdown spot — while Chelsea will be motivated by revenge. The Blues need to win this match to stay one point ahead of Liverpool who is nipping at their tails to take the final qualifying spot for the Champions League next season. Chelsea just needs better luck to get the ball in the back of the opponnent’s net after being blanked in two straight matches. 25* English Premier League Tuesday Afternoon Special Feature with Chelsea (200066) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-21 |
Leicester v. Chelsea -0.5 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Chelsea (200402) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200401) in the finals of the FA Cup. THE SITUATION: Chelsea reached the FA Cup Final with their 1-0 victory against Manchester City on April 17th. Leicester City joined them a day later on April 18th with a 1-0 victory against Southampton. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: If there was any chance that the Blues would be taking Leicester City lightly after recent victories against European powers Man City and Real Madrid last month. Chelsea comes off a disappointing 1-0 loss to Arsenal on Wednesday. A mistake by Jorginho gave the Gunners as easy a goal as they will score all year. The Blues dominated the expected goals battle by a 2.08-0.61 expected goals (xG) margin but they could not catch the break needed to level that score. That result should ensure an attentive locker room for manager Thomas Tuchel who has been an instant success at Stamford Bridge. Tuchel is taking a second team to the Champions League Final for the second straight season after leading Paris Saint-Germain to that championship game last summer. The Blues have only lost three times in 26 matches since Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard who was overmatched as the Chelsea skipper. I am not terribly surprised about the rise of this Blues team. They finished top-four in the English Premier League last summer with a nice core of young players. They then got out their checkbooks in the transfer window to bring in some of the best young European talents in the world in Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, and Hakim Ziyech. While perhaps each of those players has struggled at times adjusting to English Football during a pandemic (Havertz, in particular, overcame a tough bout with COVID that held back his conditioning in the fall). But the addition of these players gave Tuchel a roster simply loaded with talent. To his credit, Tuchel is a player’s coach who makes each player feel valuable with clear expectations of what he wants on the pitch. His implementation of a 3-4-2-1 formation made an immediate improvement in the defensive play of this team. Chelsea has 12 clean sheets in their 18 EPL matches under Tuchel. N’Golo Kante had a knock midweek for the match with Arsenal but he is expected to play this afternoon. Kante remains one of the best two or three holding midfielders in the world. What does the 2015-16 Leicester City EPL championship, the 2016-17 Chelsea EPL championship, and the France World Cup championship in 2018 all have in common? Kante. And the big advantage Tuchel has in this match is a rested and well-rotated roster of quality players. Leicester City is showing signs of fatigue. They lost eight days ago at home to a Newcastle United side that barely escaped relegation. Losing sometimes happens on any given match day — but surrendering four goals to the Magpies with the Toon Army generated 3.49 xG is a bad sign. When the Foxes are at full strength, they are a dangerous team against any of the best teams in the EPL. But the continued absence of Harvey Barnes, James Justin, and Wes Morgan not only robs manager Brendan Rodgers of talent, but he has had to rely on his same starting XI match-after-match as they strive to not only win the FA Cup but also qualify for next year’s Championship League (and the money it brings in) by finishing in the top-four in the EPL table. The Foxes come off a 2-1 win against Man United on Tuesday — but they benefited from facing a heavily-rotated Red Devils’ side that was playing the middle game of a brutal stretch of three matches in five days.
FINAL TAKE: The few times that Chelsea has lost this season, it was against West Brom, Porto, and Arsenal that were able to play physical to get the Blues out of their possession-based rhythm. Even if this was Leicester City’s style (it’s not), they lack the fitness to execute that approach in the final two weeks of a condensed schedule this season given the pandemic. Jamie Vardy is exhausted and not in form. The Foxes are tired. Chelsea is relatively rested, in rhythm — and angry after the loss midweek. And the Blues have the talent edge. 25* FA Cup Match of the Year with Chelsea (200402) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-21 |
Liverpool v. Manchester United +0.25 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-112 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (200018) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200017). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W20-D10-L5) looks to rebound from a 2-1 loss at home to Leicester City on Tuesday. Liverpool (W16-D9-L9) looks to build off their 2-0 victory against Southampton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is the third game in five days for Man United who had to make up a postponed game due to their Europa League responsibilities — and then this intended match from a week and a half ago was postponed given fan protests over the European Super League at Old Trafford. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer went with a young starting XI on Tuesday — he made ten changes to his normal lineup. This is the match that the Red Devils want to win — and in comes the A-Team after many of the key players either did not play or came on as late substitutes. Throwout Tuesday’s result which was Man United’s just second loss in their last 16 matches in the English Premier League. It was their first loss in the English top-flight since January 27th. Since the start of 2021, the Red Devils are second in the EPL with an average of 1.71 expected goals (xG) per match — and they are conceding just 0.87 expected goals (xGA). They have scored at least two goals in five of their last seven home matches at Old Trafford. They have won five of their last seven at home as well, even after Tuesday, with 22 goals scored and just eight conceded in those contests. Liverpool is fighting for their Championship League lives as they are currently in sixth place — still within striking distance after their win against Southampton. But that was just their first win in their last four matches across all competitions. It has been a lost season for manager Jurgen Klopp with his team ravaged by injuries — especially at center back where they have lost their top three players on their depth chart. The Reds are also observing down seasons from both Sadio Mane and Roberto Firminho which is leaving Mohamed Salah without scoring partners. Liverpool has looked listless in recent 1-1 draws against Leeds United and Newcastle United before beating the Saints.
FINAL TAKE: Man United is unbeaten at home in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions against Liverpool. They have fielded their best starting XI for this match, outside of not having Harry Maguire who got injured against the Foxes. A tough loss, but Eric Bailly is solid as a replacement on defense. Liverpool has not won at Old Trafford since 2013-14. These two teams settled for a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture on January 17th — and Man United won the last meeting in the FA Cup fourth round on January 24th by a 3-2 score at Old Trafford. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with Manchester United (200018) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-21 |
Crystal Palace +0.5 v. Southampton |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Crystal Palace (200001) plus the goal-line versus Southampton (200002). THE SITUATION: Crystal Palace (W11-D8-L15) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 2-0 victory at Sheffield United on Saturday. Southampton (W10-D7-L17) lost their 13th match in the English Premier League in their last 17 contests with their 2-0 loss at Liverpool on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE CRYSTAL PALACE PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Both of these teams are only playing for pride after the three teams destined for relegation to the Championship League were ensured with Fulham’s loss to Burnley yesterday. These May matches in the EPL are the games where some of these teams in no-man’s land hit the proverbial “beach” thinking about their summer plans rather than the matters at hand. Southampton seems to already be in beach mode. They only have one draw in their last five matches outside four setbacks. They have lost the expected goals (xG) battle in four straight matches. They have allowed at least two goals in six o of their last seven EPL matches. They are bottom-three in the league over their last six contests in Big Chances allowed and expected goals allowed (xGA). Injuries have riddled this team with the biggest loss being their top scorer, Danny Ings, who is dealing with a thigh muscle sprain. The tactics of manager Ralph Hassenhutl have left the healthy players on his roster exhausted. The aggressive pressing style has not been a good fit in the condensed schedule this season — and that has been compounded by the Saints staying alive in the FA Cup through last month. Liverpool has struggled with their endurance as well — and Man City’s success this season comes in large part from Pep Guardiola changing his tactics away from pressing all the time. Southampton is a tired team — and the record demonstrates this. Since their upset win against Liverpool on January 16th, the Saints have won only two of their 17 league matches with 13 losses. And in their last seven matches at home, they have only won once. Crystal Palace has little to play for as well — but they are a counter-attacking team that is in better fitness at this point of the season. They dominated Sheffield United over the weekend with 2.56 xG on offense. They were on a three-game losing streak — but they faced three of the top four teams in the EPL table in Chelsea, Leicester City, and Man City. The Eagles are a much better team with Wilfried Zaha healthy and on the pitch as he is now as the team’s top-scoring threat. Zaha has been injured for much of the season. Crystal Palace has scored in five straight EPL matches on the road — and they have a win and a draw in their last three road league contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles counter-attack should get scoring opportunities against the Southampton press. They won the reverse fixture on the opening weekend of the season on September 12th by a 1-0 score while also winning the xG battle, 1.61-1.27, in a match where the Saints’ had a healthy Danny Ings. The fatigue issue for Southampton has contributed to them being winless in their last ten midweek matches played on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. 25* English Premier League Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with the Crystal Palace (200001) plus the goal-line versus Southampton (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-21 |
Burnley +0.5 v. Fulham |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Burnley (200093) plus the goal-line versus Fulham (200094). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W9-D9-L16) has lost four of their last five matches after their 2-1 loss to West Ham United last Monday. Fulham (W5-D12-L17) is winless in their last six matches after their 2-0 loss at Chelsea on May 1st.
REASONS TO TAKE BURNLEY PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Clarets may have lost four of their last five, but they have won the expected goals (xG) battle in three of their last four matches. They were better than the Hammers in xG by a 2.24-2.17 margin last week — and that West Ham team is fifth in the EPL table this season. Manager Sean Dyche always gets the most out of his talent. Burnley is a gritty defensive team led by one of the best keepers in the English Premier League in Nick Pope. This formula has brought quality results for the Clarets for this team when playing on the road. Burnley has won four of their last eight matches away from home with victories against Liverpool, Everton, Wolverhampton, and Crystal Palace — and they conceded just one goal in those four contests. The Clarets are still not safe from relegation — they are in 17th place with a nine-point lead over Fulham. A victory cements their spot in the English top-flight next season. Burnley lacks elite talent given the finances of the franchise — but this is their fifth straight season in the EPL with Dyche leading the way. They finished in 10th place last year — and they were seventh place back in 2017-18. While the Clarets can struggle against the top teams, they usually take care of business against the bottom of the table. This is Last Chance Saloon for Fulham who must get three points to keep any hope of alive of staving off relegation — but that has been the case over the last month. After a surprising 1-0 victory at Liverpool that raised the hopes that manager Scott Parker could steer this team out of the relegation zone, the Cottagers have managed only one draw against Arsenal in their last six matches. Those were all must-win situations as well. Fulham lost the expected goals battle in four of those six games — so the results were pretty fair. This is simply a team without much talent — and they lack the same level of structure and defensive discipline that the Clarets offer. The Cottagers have the worst home record in the EPL — and they have lost four in a row at home. With just two victories at home at Craven Cottage in their 17 matches, getting paid from a draw is a very enticing proposition. Fulham lacks a potent offensive attack — they have been blanked at home in five of their last seven matches. They will have to be aggressive since they are desperate for the three points coming from a victory. The Burnley 4-4-2 counter-attacking formation should generate counter-attacking opportunities.
FINAL TAKE: Fulham is winless in their two matches against Burnley this season. They lost at home to the Clarets in FA Cup action back in January by a 3-0 score before setting for a 1-1 draw in the reverse EPL fixture at Turf Moor on February 17th. I would not be surprised with a Burnley victory, but a draw is also a likely outcome. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Burnley (200093) plus the goal-line versus Fulham (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-21 |
Manchester United -0.5 v. Roma |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (224409) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224410) in the second leg in the Semifinals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United won the first leg of the semifinals with a 6-2 victory last Thursday. Roma must score at least four goals to make even the goal differential — a 4-0 or 5-1 score secures them the away goal tiebreaker, while a 6-2 result after regulation time would trigger an extra-time playoff.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United took an early lead against Roma last week before going into halftime with a 2-1 deficit. But then Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side put it into another gear by scoring five unanswered goals in the second half for the easy victory. The Red Devils generated 4.25 expected goals — so their offensive domination was not a fluke. Now with their match with Liverpool on Sunday postponed due to the fan protests at Old Trafford, Solskjaer’s group is rested and ready. Man United is in second place in the English Premier League which might overvalue their quality — they are not as good as Chelsea, and they are not as good as Liverpool despite the reigning EPL champions experiencing a down-year hit-hard by injuries. And they may not be as good as the Leicester City team that handed them their only loss since February in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. But the Red Devils are much better with a healthy (and engaged) Paul Pogba joining Bruno Fernandes in their midfield. Man United has now won 13 of their last 18 matches across all competitions. The Red Devils have been reliable on the road this season. They are second in the EPL with 37 points away from home with a W10-D7-L0 mark. They have won four of their last six matches on the road across all competitions. Roma is just not very good — and they are riddled with injuries and now playing for a lame-duck coach. They are winless in their last six matches across all competitions with four losses after losing at Sampdoria in Seria A competition by a 2-0 score on Sunday. Defeating Ajax in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League was a nice accomplishment for the Yellow and Reds — but they lost the expected goals (xG) battle in both contests to the Dutch side. In fact, they were dominated — they managed only 1.62 xG combined with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 4.43 xGA. Roma is only in seventh place in Serie A — a distant eight points behind the sixth-place Lazio. They have allowed at least three goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. They have conceded 2.5 xGA or higher in four of their last eight league matches despite not facing a tough schedule. They are not close to full strength at this point of the season either. First string goaltender Pau Lopez is out. Midfielders Jordan Veretout and Leonardo Spinazzola are doubts after suffering injuries against Man United last week. Amadou Diawara and Carles Perez are dealing with knocks from the Sunday match. To compound matters, manager Paulo Fonseca was informed he will not return to the franchise next fall with the upper brass hiring Jose Mourinho to be the new skipper earlier in the week.
FINAL TAKE: Man United may be overrated a tad — but they are still one of the better teams in the English Premier League. Roma is not as good, relatively, in Serie A which is vastly inferior to the EPL — and now they are playing for a lame-duck manager. The Red Devils have a busy EPL schedule coming up so they will be cautious with this match in hand — but since the Yellow and Reds must play aggressively to score at least four goals, the counter-attacking opportunities will be ever-present. Solskjaer’s teams at Man United have been at their most effective when able to sit back and counter-attack rather than playing on their front foot. 25* UEFA Europa League Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester United (224409) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224410). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-21 |
Paris Saint-Germain v. Manchester City -0.75 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224214) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224213) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of the Semifinals with a 2-1 victory. PSG must win this match by at least two goals, or secure a victory in extra time after securing a 2-1 score after regulation time.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Citizens host this second leg at their Etihad Stadium where they have not allowed more than one goal in 20 of their last 23 matches across all competitions with 14 clean sheets during that span. Man City has won five of their last six matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on Saturday in a match where manager Pep Guardiola was able to rest key players to ensure his starting XI are ready for this showdown. The Citizens are cruising to their third English Premier League title in the last four seasons with a comfortable 13 point lead on Manchester United. Man City has won six in a row the Champions League while scoring twice in each of those matches. They have only allowed four goals in their 11 Champions League matches. Man City was outplayed in the first half against PSG last week with the Parisians expended tons of energy on an aggressive counter-attack. But the problem for manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side was unable to sustain that effort in the second half where the Citizens dictated the tempo and scored their two goals. That is the difference between playing in Ligue 1 and playing in the English Premier League every week. Not only is the EPL a more competitive league from week to week, but it is the most physical professional league in Europe. Man City has better endurance — and better depth. Guardiola made a good substitution by replacing Joao Cancelo on his backline who got burned three times in the first half with Oleksander Zinchenko who had two successful tackles in the final 45 minutes in helping to stabilize the defense. Guardiola will likely stick with Zinchenko this afternoon. Mauricio Pochettino is behind the eight-ball for this second leg. He can no longer have his side play the cat-and-mouse counter-attack that was successful in the first half last week. But even worse, PSG’s best player, Kylian Mbappe, will not start after suffering a calf injury that kept him out of the Parisian’s 2-1 win over Lens in the French top-flight on Saturday. Mbappe averages a whopping 0.80 expected goals per 90 minutes — his absence is devastating. Even if he does take the pitch as a sub, his speed and effectiveness will likely be diminished. PSG still has Neymar — but the Brazilian is a perpetual underachiever when asked to be the talisman. Neymar needs Mbappe to open up his game. Without him, Neymar will flop his way to a number of disputes with the refs, but he rarely carries his professional or Brazilian National Team to success. To compound matters, PSG will also be without holding midfielder Idrissa Gana Gueye who is suspended for this match after being issued a red card in last week’s match. Gueye led his team last week with four tackles and nine successful pressures despite only playing 71 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Paris Saint-Germain is a threat against the best competition in the world when playing at full strength. The loss of Gueye is a significant blow, but the injury to Mbappe is devastating. And they have to play on their front foot. The Man City “false-nine” where they play without a true attacker but with a slew of attacking midfielders is very effective in the counterattack — and they will likely score a few times from this formation. A draw is all Man City needs to advance — but I see the straight-up victory on their home pitch. 25* UEFA Champions League Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester City (224214) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-21 |
Leicester -0.5 v. Southampton |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Leicester City (200073) minus the goal-line versus Southampton (200074). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W19-D5-L9) has won three matches in a row with their 2-1 win against Crystal Palace on Monday. Southampton (W10-D6-L16) has lost three in a row after their 2-1 loss at Tottenham on April 21st.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes are cruising along with ten victories in their last sixteen matches in the English Premier League including four wins in their last six games in the top-flight. They have clean sheets in two of their last three matches — including their 1-0 victory against these Saints in the Semifinals of the FA Cup at Wembley Stadium on April 18th. Leicester City has plenty to play for with them in third place at the EPL table and in the driver’s seat to finally qualify for the Champions League which has eluded them over the years. They have a red hot player in Kelechi Iheanacho who has scored 10 goals in his last eight matches (including goals in four straight matches). The Foxes are much better when they have a second reliable scorer to complement Jamie Vardy who leads the team with 12 goals. Leicester City has been reliable on the road with ten wins in sixteen league matches. Southampton is in deep funk with twelve losses in their seventeen matches across all competitions — and they have lost twelve of their last fifteen matches in the EPL. They have allowed at least two goals in their last five league games. They host this match at St. Mary’s Stadium where they have lost four of their last six matches. To compound matters, they will be without Danny Ings likely for the rest of the season with the hamstring injury he suffered against the Hotspurs on April 21st. He scored his team-leading 10th goal in the loss to Tottenham before exiting the game. This is a team in no man's land in the EPL table — they are safe from relegation in 15th place, nine points ahead of Fulham fighting to avoid relegation. But the Saints cannot qualify for European competition — so they have nothing to play for. Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl likes his team to play aggressively with their pressing — but the condensed schedule has taken its toll on this demanding tactical approach. Without the depth of a club like Man City, it is hard for mid-tier teams like Southampton to execute this approach from week to week. Frankly, the Saints are tired — and now they lack motivation. When the calendar hits May, these are the type of teams that start having their minds on the proverbial beach. Where will the Southampton players be vacationing next month?
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has already defeated Southampton twice this season in matches with higher stakes for the Saints. Besides the victory in the FA Cup earlier this month, the Foxes defeated Southampton in the reverse league fixture on January 16th by a 2-0 score. Leicester City will find a way to win. 25* English Premier League Friday Afternoon Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200073) minus the goal-line versus Southampton (200074). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-21 |
Roma v. Manchester United -1 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224401) in the first leg in the Semifinals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United advanced to the Semifinals of the Europa League with their 4-0 aggregate score victory against Granada in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Roma reached the Semifinals with their 3-2 aggregate score win against Ajax.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United is in second place in the English Premier League which might overvalue their quality — they are not as good as Chelsea, and they are not as good as Liverpool despite the reigning EPL champions experiencing a down year hit-hard by injuries. And they may not be as good as the Leicester City team that handed them their only loss since February in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. But the Red Devils are much better with a healthy (and engaged) Paul Pogba joining Bruno Fernandes in their midfield. Man United has won 12 of their last 17 matches across all competitions after they settled for a 0-0 draw at Leeds United on Sunday. The Red Devils struggled at home at Old Trafford in the fall as they may have lacked energy on their pitch without fans. But they have won their last four matches at home across all competitions with eight goals and just two conceded. They have also won five of their last six matches at home in the EPL, which is probably the most competitive professional league in Europe (and the world). Roma is just not very good. They are winless in their last four matches across all competitions with two losses after losing to a Cagliari side on Sunday that is 17th in Serie A. Defeating Ajax in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League was a nice accomplishment — but they lost the expected goals (xG) battle in both contests to the Dutch side. In fact, they were dominated — they managed only 1.62 xG combined with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 4.43 xGA. The Yellow and Reds are only in seventh place in Serie A — a distant five points behind the sixth-place Lazio. They have allowed at least three goals in their last two league matches — and they have conceded 2.5 xGA or higher in four of their last seven league matches despite not facing a tough schedule. Roma has not been a great road team either with two straight losses away from home as well as five losses in their last eight matches (with only one victory) in the Italian top flight.
FINAL TAKE: Man United may be overrated a tad — but they are still one of the better teams in the English Premier League. Roma is not as good, relatively, in Serie A which is vastly inferior to the EPL. Let’s not overthink this. Man United handed Granada two 2-0 losses in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League. That seems the likely result in this one with a one-goal victory (and push) the most probable worst-case scenario. 25* UEFA Europa League Match of the Month with Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-21 |
Manchester City -0.25 v. Paris Saint-Germain |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224201) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the first leg in the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Man City advanced to the Semifinals with their 4-2 aggregate score victory against Borussia Dortmund in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. PSG reached the Semifinals due to the road goals tiebreaker that resolved the 3-3 aggregate score deadlock with Bayern Munich in the Quarterfinals. PSG hosts the first leg at their Parc des Princes.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Winning the Champions League is the crown jewel for manager Pep Guardiola and this Man City team. They are cruising to their third English Premier League championship in the last four seasons with their 10-point lead in the EPL table over Manchester United. Not only have the Citizens never reached the Semifinals of the Champions League under Guardiola, but this proud franchise has never won a Champions League title. Man City lifted their first trophy this season on Sunday by winning the Carabou Cup in a 1-0 win against Tottenham. The tactics of that match were important as Guardiola’s side had to combat the Hotspurs playing a cagey, defensive-oriented match that relied on occasional moments of a counter-attack. These are the tactics that former Tottenham skipper, Mauricio Pochettino has deployed with PSG in this tournament. Guardiola gets John Stones back for this match after he received a red card three-match suspension. His return bolsters the Citizens backline since he has formed a great partnership with center-back Ruben Dias. Man City’s defense has been at its best with Dias and Stone paired on the pitch. The Citizens have allowed only two goals in their four knockout stage matches in the Champions League — and they have generated clean sheets in 52% of their matches in the EPL. Man City has scored at least two goals in eight of their ten Champions League matches this season. Phil Foden is a rising superstar that has eclipsed the perpetually underachieving Gabriel Jesus and the aging Sergio Aguero as the team’s most accomplished finisher. PSG will likely continue to deploy a 4-4-1-1 formation that was successful in absorbing the Bayern Munich attack in the Quarterfinals. Kylian Mbappe is critical for the success of this team as the player up to in this formation — but the brilliant 22-year-old is a doubt for this match with a knee injury he suffered on Saturday in the Parisians 3-1 win against Metz. Mbappe scored twice in that match before exiting because of the injury. I expect Mbappe to play — it will be a coup for us if he is unable to take the pitch. But, Mbappe may not be at 100% — and he needs to be. PSG’s triumph over the Bavarians was marred by Bayern Munich being without their best attacker, Robert Lewandowski, to injury. I am not nearly as impressed with their Round of 16 victory against a Barcelona side that beats up on lesser opponents before fading against their best competition. The Parisians are not even winning Ligue 1 this season, as they are one point behind Lille for first place in the French top flight. PSG does not play elite defense either — they have surrendered five goals in their four knockout stage matches in this competition.
FINAL TAKE: This is the critical match for Man City since their road goals output will serve as their entry into the potential tiebreaker. I liked the Citizens in this matchup even before the Mbappe knock — expect a road win for Guardiola. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Manchester City (224201) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-21 |
Chelsea +0.5 v. Real Madrid |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (224205) plus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224206). THE SITUATION: Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League with their 2-1 aggregate victory over FC Porto in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Real Madrid advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-1 aggregate win against Liverpool in the Quarterfinals. Los Blancos host this first leg at their Alfredo di Stefano Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues last played on Saturday in a 1-0 victory against West Ham United. That was their third straight clean sheet — including a big 1-0 shutout victory against Manchester City in the Semifinals of the FA Cup who are playing in the other Champions League Semifinals match. Chelsea immediately became a defensive juggernaut after Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January. In his 21 matches as the skipper, the Blues have shutout 16 of their opponents across all competitions. Besides Tuchel being a much better manager of players in making his expectations and confidence clear, he also changed tactics to a 3-4-2-1 formation. This shape gave the team extra defenders to tighten up their back end — but it also allows for Chelsea to gain an extra attacker when they go on the counter-attack. The Blues play cautiously while controlling possession. They are allowing only 0.58 expected goals allowed (xGA) since Tuchel took over. They have generated seven clean sheets in their last ten matches in the Champions League. This approach has been wildly effective as they have lost only twice in their 21 matches under Tuchel. One of those losses was a 5-2 setback at home to West Brom — but that result was an outlier with the Baggies scoring all five of their goals after Thiago Silva was issued a red card which left the Blues playing with only ten men for over 60 minutes in that match. Real Madrid has registered four clean sheets in a row themselves after a 0-0 draw at home to Real Betis in La Liga action on Saturday. Los Blancos have nine clean sheets in their last 16 matches across all competitions -- and this includes against quality competition in Atalanta, Liverpool, and Atletico Madrid in five of those clean sheets. But Real Madrid has also conceded goals against Barcelona, Real Sociedad, and Atletico Madrid in their most recent matches against teams in the top five in La Liga. Manager Zinedine Zidane is dealing with several injuries that will likely compel him to engage in more conservative tactics as well. Center back Sergio Ramos has missed most of the season, and now left-back Ferland Mendy along with defensive midfielders Lucas Vazquez and Fede Valverde dealing with knocks.
FINAL TAKE: La Liga is down this season with Real Madrid being the only side to advance out of the Round of 16 in the Champions League. Chelsea handled Atletico Madrid pretty easily with a 3-0 aggregate victory in the Round of 16 — and that is the current first-place team in La Liga. 10* UEFA Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Chelsea (224205) plus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-21 |
Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 v. Sheffield United |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200021) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200022). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W7-D13-L12) earned their second-straight draw with their 0-0 result at Chelsea on Tuesday. Sheffield United (W4-D2-L26) lost their sixth straight match in a 1-0 loss at Wolverhampton last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Seagulls are one of the best defensive teams in the English Premier League. They limited Chelsea to just 0.85 expected goals (xG) while holding them scoreless. That was Brighton’s third clean sheet in their last four matches. Manager Graham Potter’s side has the third-lowest expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL which is a testament to his tactical acumen. Potter is on the shortlist to be the next manager at Tottenham — and that would be a great choice. The Seagulls have been expected goals darlings all season — they rank fifth in the EPL since January 1st in expected goals differential. This club is only in 16th place and fighting off relegation because they lack finishers on offense. Brighton generates plenty of chances — while they have only scored 33 goals, their xG skyrockets to 46.61 for the season. Facing Sheffield United may be just what the doctor ordered. This team was able to finish in the top half of the table last season given organized play on defense and fantastic goaltending from Dean Henderson. They lost Henderson in the offseason to Manchester United as he fights to not only win that starting job but also claiming the starting keeper position for the England national team. Aaron Ramsdale has not been of the same quality for the Blades this season. This team is now officially relegated, and their outstanding manager, Chris Wilder, was sacked last month. There was no bounce from this group after Wilder was dismissed — they have lost nine of ten matches. This team simply cannot score — they are last in the league in goals scored, third-to-last in xG, and they have scored just twice in their last ten matches. A key to their success last year was their ability to take leads which allowed Wilder to safely park thorn proverbial bus in the back. Instead, the defense has been too leaky and they are the ones to fall behind. The Blades have allowed the third-most goals this season. Since January 1st, Sheffield United its second-to-last in both xG and xGA. In their six straight losses, four of these setbacks have been by multiple goals. Injuries are mounting up, and the Championship League is on the horizon for next season as the club considers who their next manager will be. Paul Heckingbottom has been the caretaker over the last month, but the players know he may be a lame duck who will not be retained. This is the formula for teams playing with the summer “beach” on their minds.
FINAL TAKE: Brighton would love to take the three points in this match to all but guarantee that they would avoid relegation. They have tough matches with Man City and West Ham on deck. The Seagulls should dominate the pitch and see scoring chances pull-through for an easy win. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200021) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200022). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-21 |
Liverpool -0.75 v. Leeds United |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Liverpool (200109) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200110). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W15-D7-L9) enters this match coming off a 2-1 win against Aston Villa in their most recent match in the English Premier League back on April 10th. Leeds United (W14-D3-L14) has won three in a row after their 2-1 upset win at Manchester City on April 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds' most recent match was on Wednesday when their 0-0 draw against Real Madrid eliminated them from the Champions League after losing the aggregate score by a 3-1 margin in that Quarterfinals showdown. There were some positive takeaways from that disappointing draw (since Liverpool needed a 2-0 result or a victory by at least three goals). The Reds won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.16-0.79 mark. And they produced a clean sheet for the fourth time in their last six matches across all competitions. Liverpool’s defense has been shaky — but the return of Fabinho from injury has helped to stabilize their back end. In their last six matches in the EPL, the Reds have surrendered the third-fewest Big Chances. Getting Diogo Jota back from injury also provided manager Jurgen Klopp another creative force to help Mo Salah and Sadio Mane. Roberto Firminho has regressed which has left the reigning EPL champions less potent in their scoring. Liverpool has scored five combined goals in their last two league matches. Leeds United comes off that upset win against Man City which is even more impressive when considering that they half the match with only ten men after Liam Cooper was issued a red card just before halftime. But there are some caveats to consider from that result. First, Man City was playing their second unit with their more important second leg of the Champions League Quarterfinals matchup with Borussia Dortmund pending a few days later. The Citizens have all but wrapped up the EPL title. Second, Man City still dominated the match. They peppered the Whites with 29 shots while holding them to just two shots for the entire match. Leeds lost the xG battle by a whopping 2.56-0.09 mark. The Whites go into this match undermanned with their most creative player, Raphinha, questionable with a knock, and their captain Cooper suspended for this match after getting that red card.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool remains motivated to play well down the stretch since they need to finish in the top four to qualify for the Champions League next season. The Reds are three points behind West Ham for fourth place — and with their elimination from the Champions League last week, the EPL is now their sole focus. Salah is also in the race to win another Golden Boot for the most goals in the league. These two teams played on September 12th in a wild one that Liverpool survived by a 4-3 score at Anfield. Manager Jurgen Klopp should have more refined thoughts as to how to adapt to the unique attacking schemes from Leeds’ manager Marcelo Bielsa. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with Liverpool (200109) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-21 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Everton +0.5 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Everton (200106) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200105). THE SITUATION: Everton (W14-D6-L10) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion on Monday. Tottenham (W14-D7-L10) has lost two straight in the English Premier League after their 3-1 loss to Manchester City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Tottenham is simply a hot mess right now — they have only one victory in their last five matches across all competitions. They have also won just seven times in their last 20 games in the EPL — and this was against lowly competition: West Brom, Sheffield, Fulham, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, and Leeds United. Those are sides in the bottom-11 including the three teams likely to be relegated. Against the top-ten teams in the table, the Spurs are averaging only 1.06 expected goals (xG) while surrendering 1.48 expected goals (xGA). This is a team moving in the wrong direction under manager Jose Mourinho. It usually takes about two years for a locker room to grow tired of the prickly manager — but Mourinho seems to have already worn out his welcome less than a year and a half into his tenure. In his 57 matches with Tottenham, he has overseen 27 wins with 82.3 xG and 83.2 xGA. Not great, Bob. In comparison to Mauricio Pochettino who has led PSG to the Semifinals of the Championship League, in his last 57 matches with the Spurs, they had 1.48 xG and a 1.41 xGA. The lack of quality center backs is now exposing itself in a defense that is waning. They are allowing 2.75 Big Chances per match in their last three in the EPL which is bottom-three in the league over that span. The lowly Newcastle attack managed over 4 xG while scoring twice in a 2-2 draw on April 11th. On the road, Tottenham has only won once in their last four matches across all competitions. Everton is struggling as well having gone winless in their last five competitions — but the players still respect (and don’t loathe) their manager, Carlo Ancelotti. Injuries have hit this team hard — and they will be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin as he continues to deal with a groin issue. Ancelotti should have the services of Joshua King, Allan, Lucas Digne, and keeper Jordan Pickford. The loss of DCL up top hurts — but Ancelotti can move Richarlison up to the attacker spot with James Rodriguez feeding him from the midfield. The Toffees are much better when Rodriguez is healthy and on the pitch. Everton has scored in four straight EPL matches at home. And Meyerside Giants have been playing pretty stout defense — they are fifth-best in the EPL since March in xGA. They have not allowed more than one goal in their last five matches at home at Goodison Park.
FINAL TAKE: Everton has matched up well against Tottenham this season with two victories — a 1-0 win on the road on opening day back on September 13th, and then a 5-4 win in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. The Toffees’ injuries are holding them back a bit — but they are playing with better morale and defensive cohesion right now. This is a critical match for both sides as they look to qualify for the Europa League with outside hopes at perhaps a top-four finish which gets them into the Champions League. An upset win is very possible — but Everton should at least leave this match with a draw. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with Everton (200106) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-21 |
Manchester City -0.5 v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224226) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals. THE SITUATION: Man City won the first leg of the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals with their 2-1 win at home at Etihad Stadium against the Black and Yellows. Borussia Dortmund must win this match by a 1-0 score, or win by at least two goals to advance to the semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man City dominated the first match despite needing Phil Foden to score the game-winner in the 90th minute. The Cityzens won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.99 to 0.97 mark. Man City limited the Black and Yellows to just four shots. Pep Guardiola’s team has been sensational on defense this season — they have held their English Premier League and Champions League opponents to just 0.71 expected goals allowed (xGA) which is a big improvement from the 1.01 xGA they posted on defense in their EPL and UCL matches last season. An influx of new talent on their backline along with a shift in tactics with Guardiola less aggressive with his forward press explains the dramatic improvement. Man City comes off a 2-1 loss to Leeds United on Saturday — but don’t read too much into that match. For starters, Guardiola played what was essentially his second-string team with most of his starters from last Tuesday’s Champions League match resting for this second leg. Second, the Cityzens dominated that contest still — they peppered the Whites with 29 shots while holding them to just two shots. They won the xG battle by a dominant 2.56-0.09 mark. But that result should keep them salty for this rematch to ensure they are not looking ahead. Borussia Dortmund was fortunate to only surrender two goals last week since they gave Man City plenty of space for their high press to operate. That is a dangerous formula they will likely have to retain since they must be the aggressors to score at least one goal (and likely more than one goal). The Black and Yellows will be very vulnerable on the counterattack. They surrendered at least two goals for the sixth time in their last seven matches on Saturday in the Bundesliga in their 2-1 victory against a Stuttgart side that is in ninth place in the German top flight. Borussia Dortmund lost the xG battle in that match, 1.04-1.65. In their last seven matches, they have surrendered 1.67 xGA — so their defensive slide is not an aberration of outliers. This is a bad stretch for manager Edin Terzic’s side — they have only won twice in their last seven matches, and they have lost six matches in their last 13 games across all competitions. To compound matters, this team is banged up. Jadeon Sancho remains out with an injury — and he is the team’s second-best player after Erling Haaland. Captain Marco Reds and center-back Mats Hummels are now dealing with knocks.
FINAL TAKE: Winning the Champions League is the number one goal for Manchester City with the English Premier League title well in hand with their 11 point lead. Man City has not advanced to the Semifinals of the Champions League in their four previous seasons under Pep Guardiola after losing to Monaco in the Round of 16, and Quarterfinal exits to Liverpool, Tottenham, and Lyon. This is a big match for this team — look for a dominant effort against an overmatched Borussia Dortmund side who has to play aggressively. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-21 |
Barcelona FC v. Real Madrid +0.25 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Real Madrid (201958) plus the goal-line (or as a pick ‘em) versus Barcelona (2019557). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (19-6-4) is unbeaten in their last twelve competitions including a 2-0 win at home against Eibar last Saturday in their most recent match in La Liga. Barcelona (20-5-4) comes off a 1-0 victory against Real Valladolid on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID PLUS THE GOAL-LINE (or as a pick ‘em): The Real Madrid script is pretty standard under manager Zinedine Zidane: win La Liga, go on vacation, return in the fall, play down to some competition, create some drama — then step up and then defeat top-flight opponents. Los Blancos limped into the fall’s incarnation of El Clasico off a loss in La Liga and a loss in the Champions League. Frankly, Zidane’s team was not working very hard. They responded by simply outclassing Barcelona, 3-1, while decisively winning the expected goals (xG) battle, 3.43-1.91. That match took place on October 24th. 5 1/2 months later, Real Madrid is clicking on all cylinders — just as they always are under Zidane. Karim Benzema was out of form in October — but he has raised his scoring average to 0.67 xG per 90 minutes with eight goals in his last six matches. Los Blancos looked dominant on Wednesday in a 3-1 win over Liverpool in the first leg of their Champions League Quarterfinals showdown. Real Madrid is undefeated in their last 12 competitions — and they have won 12 of their last 17 matches with a net xG differential of +15.83. Barcelona is unbeaten in their last 19 matches in La Liga — but 13 of those contests were against teams in the bottom half of the league. Barca has faltered against top-level competition. They were humiliated at home in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches in the Champions League against Paris Saint-Germain by a 4-1 score. I read nothing in their meaningless 1-1 draw against PSG in the second-leg since they lost by a decisive 5-2 aggregate score. In La Liga against their top-three competitors of Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, and Real Madrid, Barcelona is just 1-1-2 with losses to Atletico Madrid and Los Blancos. They scored only four goals in those five matches while surrendering five goals. Real Madrid, on the other hand, has won all four of their matches against Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, and Barcelona by a decisive 7 to 2 goal margin -- and they won the expected goals battle in all four of those matches. Zidane does not have center backs Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane — but those two were not available against Liverpool either (and Ramos has been out most of the season). Zinedine has an embarrassment of riches in being able to rely on Nacho and Eder Militao as his two center backs. And that raises the fundamental problem with this Barcelona side — while Lionel Messi remains sublime, his teammates have lost a step (or three) on a roster that needs to go young (there is a reason why Messi is so frustrated with management). Barca management brought in Ronaldo Koeman as their new manager this season in a questionable decision. Koeman is building up great stats for 538 to marvel at against lesser competition — but they fall flat against teams of equal or superior talent.
FINAL TAKE: Barcelona is in second place in La Liga, one point behind Atletico Madrid. Real Madrid is in third place, three points behind Atletico Madrid. With both teams having an upcoming showdown with Atletico, the winner of this match controls their destiny to win the league title. Real Madrid has one of the best midfield trios in the world in Toni Kroos, Luka Modric, and Casemeiro — and Zinedine deploys a mid-block that has effectively thwarted Messi’s advancement up the pitch. Messi has not scored against Real Madrid in over three years — and he does not have as much help as he once did. Real Madrid hosts this rematch at their Alfredo di Stefano training facility with their main stadium under reconstruction — and they are still a small dog with analytics sites like 538 considering Barcelona the second-best team in the world (real-world results be damned!). Messi certainly does not think he plays for the second-best team in the world. And here comes Real Madrid: the reigning La Liga champions with four Champions League titles in the last seven seasons. 25* La Liga Match of the Year with the Real Madrid (201958) plus the goal-line (or as a pick ‘em) versus Barcelona (2019557). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-17-21 |
Lazio v. Bayern Munich -1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224258) minus the goal-line versus Lazio (224257) in the second leg of the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the opening leg of their Round of 16 pairing on the road by a 4-1 score on February 23rd. Lazio must match that effort to force the sudden death tie-breaker — with a victory by four goals being the recipe to advance without extra-time.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH: The Bavarians are in as good of form right now as they have been since winning the Champions League last summer. Since defeating Lazio in the opening leg, Bayern Munich has won all three of their matches by at least two goals. They have scored 12 goals over that span with Robert Lewandowski scoring six times himself. They come off a 3-1 win at Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Sunday. The Bavarians are in first place in the German top-flight by four points. They have scored 74 goals in 25 league matches. Bayern Munich has also scored 22 goals in their seven Champions League matches this season. They should score multiple times in this one. Hosting this match also helps. The Bavarians have won all six of their home matches in Champions League play under manager Hans Flick who took over late in 20219. They have scored 18 times in those six matches while conceding just three times. Lazio has lost four of their last six matches including a round setback to a Bologna side that is only in 12th place in the Italian Serie A. I Biancocelesti is in just seventh place in Serie A with a subpar W1-D2-L4 mark against the top-four teams in the current table. The underlying metrics even suggest they are slightly overachieving since their expected goal differential is only eighth-best in the league. They are averaging only 1.13 expected goals per match. Ciro Immobile leads the team with 14 goals but he is not in form after going scoreless in his last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich was without Thomas Muller and Serge Gnabry in the first leg — yet they still dominated that match. While Flick may call for his team to emphasize defensive-tactics, Lazio’s need to play without caution should create plenty of counter-attacking scoring chances. Besides, the Bavarians’ approach this season has been that a good offense removes the need for a good defense. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (224258) minus the goal-line versus Lazio (224257). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-21 |
Leeds United v. West Ham United -0.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing West Ham (200130) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200129). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W13-D6-L7) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at Manchester City last Saturday. Leeds United (W11-D2-L13) comes off a 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers might have outplayed the best team in the English Premier League last weekend — they posted an expected goals mark (xG) of 1.73 while limiting the Cityzens to just 0.76 expected goals (xGA). West Ham was unbeaten in their previous four matches — and they are W7-D1-L2 in their last ten matches across all competitions. Getting Michail Antonio healthy again and back on the pitch makes a big difference. Antonio leads the EPL in expected goals involvement over the last four matches. The addition of Jesse Lingard has also added prowess to this team in the middle of the pitch. In his five matches since joining the team, West Ham has seen their xG rise from 1.4 to 1.54 per match — and they are now averaging 2.2 Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with at least a 35% chance of success) from their 1.9 make before the arrival of Lingard. West Ham is also tough at home where they have won five of their last six matches — with the lone blemish being a loss to reigning EPL champs, Liverpool. Leeds United is beginning to fade a bit after their unique aggressive style took the league by storm in the fall. The Peacocks have lost three of their last four matches along with seven of their last ten. They are overperforming in goals scored and goals allowed relative to their xG expectations. And while they have 18 points on the road, their expected points (xPTS) fall to 15.08 with them overachieving both goals scored and goals allowed. Leeds has lost their last two matches on the road. They have surrendered the most Big Chances in the league when playing on the road — and they have not had a clean sheet on the road in their last five matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the reverse fixture on the road on December 11th by a 2-1 score. Leeds has seen two of their league matches end in a draw this season — so a winner is likely. The Hammers are in great form and should overwhelm this promoted side. 25* English Premier League Monday Match of the Month with the West Ham (200130) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200129). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Leicester v. Brighton & Hove Albion |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200098) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200097). THE SITUATION: Brighton and Hove Albion (W5-D11-L10) has lost two in a row after their 1-0 loss at West Bromwich Albion last Saturday. Leicester City (W15-D5-L7) comes off a 1-1 draw at Burnley on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Brighton is a prime example of a team dramatically underperforming in respect to the analytics projections. In terms of the expected goals metric (xG), the Seagulls are the fifth-best team in the English Premier League. In practice, they are only three points safe from relegation. Brighton dominated West Brom by a 3.28-0.73 xG but lost by a 1-0 score. Missing two penalty kicks did not help. That setback came on the heels of them losing 2-1 to Crystal Palace despite dominating the xG battle by a 3.03-0.27 margin. I have written extensively about Brighton — and, to be fair, one of the reasons why they are underachieving their expected goals mark is because they lack elite goal-scorers. But they are also unlucky — especially on defense. Manager Graham Potter’s tactics are putting his team in a position to win matches consistently. This may make them a precarious favorite — but they remain very dangerous as they proved earlier this year when they upset Liverpool. When playing at home in Amex Stadium, the Seagulls have the second-best expected points (xPTS) despite only 10 points and one victory. They lead the EPL in Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a 35% or better success rate based on league averages) and in expected goals allowed (xGA). They allow only 4.76 shots inside the box which is the second-fewest in the league. Sooner or later, the Regression Gods will arrive for this team. Creating scoring opportunities and limiting your opponent’s scoring chances is the foundation for success. Leicester City is not in good form right now with two losses and a draw in their last three matches. When the Foxes are at full strength, they have a legitimate claim in being one of the top four teams in the league. But because they cannot afford to pay for a bunch of good players, their roster depth is not in the same class as the elite programs. Their attack suffers when their trio of Jamie Vardy, Harvey Barnes, and James Maddison are not playing together — and both Barnes and Maddison are out with injuries. Leicester City is also without Jonny Evans, Wes Morgan, and Ayoze Perez. These losses are devastating. Despite their 1-1 draw midweek, they lost the xG battle to the Cherries by a 1.75-1.23 xG margin. The Foxes have been outperforming the metrics all season on both ends of the pitch. While they are currently third in the EPL standings, they fall to sixth (and behind Brighton) in xPTS. Recent losses to Arsenal and Slavia Prague in the Europa League are not encouraging regarding how this team will proceed given all their injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the reverse fixture by a 3-0 score before defeating the Seagulls in the FA Cup on February 10th by a 1-0 score. The Foxes have more injuries now. A victory now earns Brighton some revenge and three crucial points to avoid relegation. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200098) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200097). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-21 |
Manchester City -1 v. Borussia Monchengladbach |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (224226). THE SITUATION: Man City is the best team in the world right now riding an 18-match winning streak across all competitions after their 1-0 win at Arsenal on Sunday. Borussia Monchengladbach is struggling after a 2-1 loss to Mainz on Saturday. This match will be played on a neutral field in Hungary given COVID restrictions in Germany right now.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cityzens are cruising with 13 straight wins in the English Premier League which the metrics rank as the top professional league in Europe right now. Man City is demolishing their English competition with 32 goals scored and just three conceded during their 13 EPL matches since their last loss on November 21st to Tottenham. Manager Pep Guardiola had to change tactics out of necessity given some injuries to their attackers to pull-in the reins a bit in his aggressive pressing tactics. This decision is wise in hindsight given the increased work-load for the players in the condensed schedule due to COVID. Not being as aggressive has helped protect their backline — but the organization also made a number of great transfers to fortify their defense. The combination of Ruben Dias and John Stones in the middle of their backline has been extraordinary — they are allowing just 0.52 expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing together. Man City has allowed just two goals in their last ten EPL matches — and they have only allowed three of their last 14 opponents in the EPL to generate at least 1.0 expected goals (xG). The Cityzens have 18 clean sheets in their last 25 matches across all competitions. And in their six Champions League Group Stage matches, Man City had five clean sheets — and their six opponents combined for a mere 1.6 xG. In the EPL, Man City has a +32.79 net expected goals differential — and the next closest team in that metric is Chelsea’s whose +15.73 net xG differential is less than half their number. And they are getting healthier with midfielder Kevin DeBruyne healthy back on the pitch over the weekend. Borussia Monchengladbach is winless in their last four matches in the Bundesliga — and they have lost two in a row at home against Mainz and Cologne who are both in the bottom-five in the league. Die Foals has taken a slide since manager Marco Rose announced he would be leaving the team for Borussia Dortmund in the offseason. They are just eight the German top flight this season expected goal net differential. The scoring is down for this team with Alassane Pea and Marcus Thuram only contributing three goals and one assist apiece after combining for 20 goals and 18 assists last season. After averaging 2.16 xG last season, Borussia Monchengladbach has fallen to averaging just 1.53 xG this year. And in their last four matches, Die Foals are managing just 0.69 xG per contest.
FINAL TAKE: Not being able to play the first leg at home really hurts this team — they have won three of their last ten matches away from home. These Champions League neutral site matches give a big edge to the road team since their goals still contribute to the “away goals” first tie-breaker if there is a tie in net goals after the second leg. Guardiola has plenty of incentives to run up the score against a Borussia Monchengladbach who has to travel for this match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Favorite of the Month with Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-22-21 |
Crystal Palace v. Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200046) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200045). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W5-D11-L8) is unbeaten in their last six English Premier League matches after their 0-0 draw at home to Aston Villa back on February 13th. Crystal Palace (W8-D5-L11) has lost four of their last six EPL matches after their 3-0 loss to Burnley on two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Seagulls have been the analytics darlings all season despite little results to show for it. While their 26 points this season places them in relegation danger in 16th place in the EPL table, their 38.78 expected points (xPTS) using the expected goals (xG) metric is sixth-best in the league. With recent wins against traditional Big Six sides in Liverpool and Tottenham, manager Graham Potter’s side is finally seeing the results the underlying metrics have called for. It starts with their strong defensive play — Brighton has now registered five clean sheets in their last six matches. Potter’s decision to replace keeper Matt Ryan with Robert Sanchez whose ability to make quality saves (and not make mistakes) has played a big role in their recent clean sheet run. The Seagulls have only won once in their 12 home games at Amex Stadium but the metrics suggest they are tough to beat on their home pitch. While Brighton only has 10 points, they have 25.75 xPTS at home which is the second-most in the EPL. They have scored only 11 goals at home — but their xG is 23.42. And while they have allowed only 15 goals at home, their expected goals allowed (xGA) actually drops to 10.30. Crystal Palace has been blanked in two straight matches while generating little action in front of the opposing net. They managed only 0.63 xG in their loss to Burnley after generating just 0.44 xG in their 2-0 loss to Leeds United in their previous match. Manager Roy Holgorsen misses his best attacker, Wilfried Zaha, who remains out with an injury. They have not scored this season without Zaha being on the pitch. Furthermore, not only has Crystal Palace lost of their last 20 matches when playing without Zaha but they have won just once while scoring only six goals in their last 13 matches in the EPL without Zaha — and they generated just 15.5 xG in those 13 games. The Eagles are in 14th place in the table — but they fall to 17th place in xPTS. Crystal Palace is W4-D2-L6 on the road for 14 points — but their xPTS drop to 13.52 on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Palace on October 18th. The Eagles had Zaha for that match with the Seagulls still struggling on the pitch to meet their deeper analytics expectations. Brighton needs the three points to get clear from relegation — and they are the vastly superior side. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200046) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-19-21 |
Leeds United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200010) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200009). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W8-D6-L10) has won two of their last three EPL matches after their 2-1 win at Southampton on Sunday. Leeds United (W10-D2-L11) has lost two of their last three matches with their 4-2 loss at Arsenal on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have righted their ship after a winless eight-match stretch. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team has defeated the Saints and Arsenal with a draw against Leicester City in their last three EPL matches. Being eliminated from the Europa League and now de-emphasizing the FA Cup has allowed Nuno to privilege his starting XI to his best players. Wolverhampton can struggle given their lack of depth during busy fixture schedules — and the injury to Raul Jimenez took away their best goal-scorer. Adding Willian Jose to bolster the offensive attack last month has helped. The Wolves play much defense when back at home where their opponent’s expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.05 is much better than their 1.49 xGA when on the road. Wolverhampton has won the expected goals battle in three straight matches. Leeds United has lost the xG battle in six of their last seven matches. The Whites may be suffering from fatigue given the active pressing attack that manager Marcelo Bielsa deploys without much of a bench. Leeds is riddled with injuries right now as well to further rob them of depth. The Whites have 18 points on the road in their 12 matches — but their expected points (xPTS) plummets to 12.46 in those road matches. Leeds is last in the EPL in xGA when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture by a 1-0 score when they played on October 19th. The Wolves have won four straight matches against Leeds which may be a testament to Nuno’s defensive tactics exposing the unique aggressive attack that Bielsa deploys. 25* English Premier League Friday Afternoon Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200010) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200009). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-21 |
Liverpool v. RB Leipzig +0.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-150 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224202) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (224201) in the first leg of the Round of 16 in the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool comes off a 3-1 loss at Leicester City in the English Premier League on Saturday. RB Leipzig defeated Augsburg on Friday by a 2-1 score in the Bundesliga. This match will be played on a neutral field in Budapest.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool is ravaged with injuries and they are in as worse of form as they have been in over three years. Manager Jurgen Klopp may be without ten front-line players for this match. The crisis starts at center back where they have lost Virgil Van Dijk, Joel Matip, and Joe Gomez to season-ending injuries. Klopp may not have the services of James Milner and Fabinho who suffered knocks over the weekend. These injuries in the back have forced Klopp to move Fabinho and Jordan Henderson from holding midfielder positions to center back. Not only does that put them out of position but it takes away from Klopp’s ability to implement their high press. The Reds’ attackers are not in their best form either with fatigue (and recovering from COVID for Mo Salah) seeming to be issues. Diogo Jota was a shot in the arm for this team after transferring from Wolverhampton but the attacking midfielder is yet another player on the shelf. Liverpool limps into this match with three straight losses in games where they lost the expected goals battle in each contest. The Reds have lost five of their last seven across all competitions. Since the end of the Group Stage in the Champions League in December, Liverpool has won only five of their fifteen matches with six losses. The Reds only allowed three goals in four Group Stage UCL matches — their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 9.4 suggests they were very fortunate. Since Christmas, Liverpool has an xGA of 1.28 which is a significant dropoff from their 1.03 xGA last season. The Reds have also struggled away from home in the EPL this season with a W4-D5-L3 mark as compared to their W7-D2-L3 record at home at Anfield. RB Leipzig survived the Group of Death in the Champions League with a clutch 3-2 victory against Manchester United to eliminate the Red Devils from the competition. PSG was also in their Group H. The Red Bulls have since only lost two of their last thirteen matches — and they enter this match on a four-game winning streak. Defense was an issue in the Champions League — but this is usually a tight defensive team. They have registered nine clean sheets across all competitions since advancing to the Round of 16. RB Leipzig has an xGA of 0.88 in the Bundesliga which is the third-best defensive mark across the top-five leagues in Europe. The Red Bulls leads the German top-flight with a +24.3 expected goals net differential.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be relatively new to the elite European competition levels — but this is an experienced core of players that went to the Semifinals of the Champions League last summer. They will not fear the moment. They were supposed to host this first leg but COVID restrictions in Germany required this match to be moved to a neutral field in Budapest. That offers little help to Liverpool who is simply not playing with much confidence right now. Klopp publicly conceded that his team would not successfully defend their EPL title this year given their current place in the standings — but I don’t think they can flip the switch in European competition. They tried flipping the switch at home against Man City — yet they were dominated by a 4-1 score earlier this month. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Month with RB Leipzig (224202) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-21 |
Fulham v. Everton -0.25 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-117 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200098) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200097). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D4-L6) earned a late 3-3 draw at Manchester United last Saturday in their most recent match in the English Premier League. Fulham (W2-D9-L11) is winless in their last 12 matches after a 0-0 draw with West Ham last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees showed grit last week by scoring in the final moments of stoppage time to earn the 1-point from the draw with Man United who is currently second place in the EPL. Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s then followed that up on Wednesday by outlasting Tottenham by a 5-4 score to advance in the FA Cup. Everton has scored eight goals in their last two matches — both against traditional Big Six sides — and they have scored ten goals in their last three matches across all competitions. This is a team that tends to feast on the bottom half of the table as well — they have a +3.08 net expected points differential against these clubs. They return home where they will have something to prove at Goodison Park after a flat 2-0 effort in their most recent home match in league play. Ancelotti is dealing with some injuries for this match with forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin and keeper Jordan Pickford out and defenseman Lucas Digne questionable with a knock. While the Toffees will miss DCL up top, his goal-scoring is mostly from poaching. Richarlison will move up the pitch to take that role — and the team still has James Rodriguez in the middle of the pitch. The Colombian is the straw who stirs the drink for this team when he is healthy. Fulham is struggling to score goals — they have managed only four goals in their last eight matches. Over their last 12 games, they have generated only 0.96 expected goals. The Cottagers are also leaky on defense. In their last six matches, Fulham is bottom-four in Big Chances Allowed (representing scoring opportunities with a success rate of 35% or higher). In their last seven matches, the Cottagers are allowing an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.74. And against teams in the top-seven in the EPL table (including Everton), they have an xGA of 1.98.
FINAL TAKE: The concern for manager Scott Parker with his Fulham team is that he changed tactics to play more conservatively after their 3-2 loss at home to Everton on November 22nd. The Toffees generated 1.99 xG that match. The Cottagers saw a short-term improvement in defense — but this better play has waned while the Fulham attack has suffered. Everton needs this victory after giving away points in some recent matches (like Newcastle). 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with Everton (200098) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200097). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
West Ham United -0.25 v. Fulham |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-60 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing West Ham United (200049) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200050). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W11-D5-L6) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 3-1 win at Aston Villa on Wednesday. Fulham (W2-D8-L11) is winless in their last 11 matches after losing at home to Leicester City on Wednesday, 2-0.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers have been a solid team all season — but they become much better when Michail Antonio is healthy and on the pitch. Antonio was out for the last few weeks of 2020 but his return has helped propel West Ham during this recent run. Getting midfielder Jesse Lingard on loan from Manchester United always gives this team an experienced goal scorer — he found the back of the net twice in his debut with the team against the Villans. West Ham started playing much better during Project Restart this summer. Manager David Moyes’ tactical decision to move Antonio up to forward rather than attacking midfielder — a decision out of necessity at the time given injuries — has proven to be fruitful over the longer-run. The Hammers generated 1.92 expected goals (xG) against a solid defensive club in Aston Villa midweek while generating 20 shots. West Ham averages 1.60 xG this season while allowing only 1.27 expected goals (xGA). The Hammers feast on the weaker teams in the league — in their 11 matches against bottom-half of the table teams, West Ham averages 1.89 xG with a net expected goals differential of +8.07. Fulham started playing better when manager Scott Parker abandoned the aggressive pressing system that worked in the Champions League but was getting blistered in the top-flight. But while the counter-attacking approach has helped them earn more draws, they still are allowing 1.74 xGA this season — and that number rises to 1.97 xGA against teams in the top-six. Yet the change in tactics has made the Cottagers toothless in their attack. Their 17 goals are the third-fewest in the EPL. They have only scored four times in their last eleven EPL contests — and they have a 0.90 xG during that span. Fulham has registered a mere eight shots inside the six-yard box this season which is the fewest in the league. Unfortunately for Parker, they have also conceded 28 shots in the box which is the most in the EPL. Playing at home at Cottage Park has offered little help as Fulham’s 6 points are the fewest of all teams in their home park. Their seven goals scored at home is also the lowest mark in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the first meeting between these two teams on November 7th in a 1-0 victory. The Hammers registered three shots inside the six-yard box while posting a healthy 1.56 xG. The Hammers are in better form now. Getting three points from the win in this one could put West Ham in the top-four in the table going into next week. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Match of the Month with the West Ham United (200049) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-30-21 |
Newcastle United v. Everton -1 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D3-L5) enters this match off a 1-1 draw at home against Leicester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L11) has lost five straight matches in the English Premier League with their 2-1 loss at Leeds United on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees have won five of their last eight matches in EPL play with only one loss over that span. This side has stepped on the defensive end of the pitch where they are allowing just 1.20 expected goals (xGA) in those last eight matches. Manager Carlo Ancelotti has overseen this stretch despite dealing with a host of injuries since the fall. But now his starting XI is back near full strength with his big four of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, James Rodriguez, Richarlison, and Lucas Digne all healthy again. When these four have all started together in six matches this season, Everton has scored 17 goals with a 2.8 goals-per-game average. They now host a slumping Newcastle side with a manager in Steve Bruce who is sitting on a red-hot hot seat. The Magpies are allowing 1.68 xGA this season despite playing a 4-4-2 formation which basically has eight players parking the bus in the back. Over their last four matches, Newcastle is last in expected goals allowed. The Magpies are only averaging 1.03 expected goals per match as well. Their play has particularly suffered away from St. James where they are second-to-last in expected goals differential. Newcastle has lost six of their ten matches on the road. They have the second-worst xGA away from home. And they have not scored in their last 385 minutes on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Everton should have plenty of energy having taken a two-week hiatus because of a COVID outbreak earlier this month. With two matches in hand, the Toffees can make a big run up the table. Everton will also have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Newcastle, 2-1, on November 1st. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-27-21 |
Fulham v. Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 |
|
0-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200134) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200133). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W3-D8-L8) ended a winless streak in their last nine matches with their 1-0 victory against Leeds United on January 16th. Fulham (W-2-D6-L10) is winless in their last eight matches after their 2-1 loss to Manchester United last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION: This is a value play on the Seagulls in an important match for them to move comfortably away from the relegation zone. Brighton are the laptop darlings this season with their expected Points (xPTS) using the expected goals (xg)/expected goals allowed (xGA) metric has them well ahead of their 17 points which places them in 17th place in the EPL table. The Seagulls have 28.95 xPTS which is the ninth-best in the league. This has been an unlucky team. For example, while they induce, on average, the fifth-longest shot distance from the goal by their opponents, they are also seeing the highest goals-scored percentage per shot allowed. That number should regress with the Seagulls allowing fewer goals. Brighton will be anxious to earn their first victory at home in their Amex Stadium as well. They have five draws and four losses in their nine home matches despite averaging 1.92 xG and surrendering 1.08 xGA which are very nice numbers. Fulham comes off a rough 3-0 loss to Burnley over the weekend in FA Cup action. Manager Scott Parker has abandoned his more aggressive attack for a counter-attacking approach which has helped plug many of the leaks in their defense. But this approach has made the Cottagers’ attack toothless. They have scored only once in their last three matches and just three times in their last eight matches. Now after playing their last three EPL matches at home, they go back on the road where they allow their home hosts to average 1.80 xG. In their last three road league contests, they have allowed 2.54 xG per contest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture on December 16th. Fulham is five points behind Brighton in 18th place — so getting a victory here would be monumental. But the Seagulls are the better side with the underlying numbers making a dramatic statement. Let’s trust that manager Graham Potter coaxes a victory from his team. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200134) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200133). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-27-21 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Chelsea -0.75 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-121 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Chelsea (W8-D5-L6) has suffered five losses in their last eight EPL matches with their 2-0 loss at Leicester City last Tuesday. Wolverhampton (W6-D4-L9) is winless in their last six EPL matches after their 3-2 loss at home to West Brom.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The dreary loss to the Foxes was the final straw for Chelsea management as they sacked manager, Frank Lampard. I expect an immediate bounce. Lampard was the golden boy in the organization as a player without big-time managerial experience. He seemed like a good fit when hired last year because he could help develop the younger players on the roster — an important consideration given the transfer ban last year. But once that transfer ban was lifted, the franchise brought-in a bunch of high-priced players that changed the expectations with this team. Lampard was finicky with his starting lineups and tactics on the pitch — and his perhaps stoic demeanor came across as arrogant. Players grew tired of his shtick — and he eventually lost the proverbial locker room. In comes new manager Thomas Tuchel who has immediate cache as the former manager of PSG and Borussia Dortmund. The German manager should be able to instantly connect with the struggling Timo Werner and Kai Havertz who have struggled in their transition to the EPL (and with who Lampard had no connection). Tuchel is more of a player’s manager with reports that he has already reached out to every member of the team. He is also expected to deploy a 3-5-2 formation with Werner in the box rather than playing the wing — I love it because Werner is ultimately a poacher. The “Tuchel Bounce” is legit — his teams at Borussia Dortmund won their first 11 matches after his appointment while his PSG team won their first 14 matches once he took over. Talent is not the issue with this team — while they are in 8th place, their expected Points using the expected goals metric places them third in the EPL. The Blues have the second-best expected goals allowed mark in the league. I expect an immediate improvement with stick-in-the-mud Lampard gone. Wolverhampton is struggling with four losses in their last six matches. This group misses striker Raul Jimenez who is out with a head injury for months. The organization signed Willian Jose on loan from Real Sociedad to offer them a substitute attacker — but he has still not received his work permit. The team is also without their talented young attacking midfielder in Daniel Podence who is out with an injury. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo has seemed to abandon his tight defensive formation for a more open styled to help create offense without Jimenez — but this has ruined the defensive cohesion of his team. The loss to West Brom is humiliating (as we saw yesterday in the Baggies’ 5-0 loss to Man City, Wolverhampton scoring twice should have been the canary in the coal mine to avoid that Under). The Wolves surrendered an xGA of 2.58 against toothless West Brom. Brighton registered 2.56 xG against Wolverhampton on January 2nd three EPL matches ago.
FINAL TAKE: It should be easy for Tuchel to get his team motivated to play this Wolves team that just upset Chelsea on December 12th by a 2-1 score. The Blues dominated the match in terms of expected goals — they registered 1.61 xG with Wolverhampton countering with just 0.63 xG — but the Wolves on the match in the 96th minute in a goal Neto. Revenge, Redemption — and the opportunity to Scapegoat past struggles on the departed manager — the Trinity of Motivation! 25* English Premier League Wednesday Match of the Month with Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
Newcastle United v. Aston Villa -1 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W8-D2-L6) has lost three matches in a row after their 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L9) has also lost three in a row after their 3-0 loss at Arsenal on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE ASTON VILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Villans have endured a difficult schedule as of late with matches against Liverpool and Manchester United along with their most recent match against Man City. They also had to play Man City on the road after not having played since New Year’s Day given COVID cancellations so rust was an issue. Yet they stayed competitive with the Cityzens with that match scoreless until the 79th minute. Aston Villa had been on a five-match unbeaten streak with three victories before this recent stretch. The Villans are a dynamic attacking team that averages 15.6 shots-per-match along with 1.81 non-penalty kick Big Chances per match and 1.81 non-penalty kick expected goals (xG) per contest. Aston Villa is fifth in the EPL in xG. They are also underperforming at home in Villa Park this season. While they have 10 points from their W3-D1-L3 mark at home, their expected points (xPTS) using expected goals rise to 13.67. Newcastle is a mess that is winless in their last nine matches. Manager Steve Bruce moved away from his uber-conservative 5-4-1 system to a 4-4-2 against Arsenal on Monday to generate more offense — but they only managed four shots and 0.19 xG against the Gunners. The Magpies have been blanked in six of their last seven matches across all competitions (and four of their last five in the EPL). And while the five defensive backs are supposed to stymie opposing attacks, Newcastle still has the fifth worse expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league — and the 1.90 xGA they surrender on the road is the third-highest mark in the EPL. Yet playing with one less defender last week against the middling Arsenal attack, the Magpies have an xGA of 2.41 while allowing 20 shots and those three goals. Aston Villa has thrived in generating pressure in deep-lying opponents like Newcastle. In home matches against similar defensive schemes against Sheffield United, Burnley, and Crystal Palace, the Villans generated 17, 29, and 22 shots. And in home matches against quality opponents Southampton and Liverpool, Aston Villa had 18 and 19 shots — and they scored seven goals against the reigning EPL champs in Liverpool. The Magpies allow 15.3 shots-per-match which is the second-most in the EPL. They have allowed 23 shots against Tottenham, 21 shots against Man United, 28 shots against Leeds United, and 20 shots on Monday against Arsenal.
FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this match. The Villans have won four of their last six EPL matches and six of their last eight matches across all competitions by at least three goals — so if they win this match, it will likely be by more than one goal. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-20-21 |
Manchester United -1 v. Fulham |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W11-D4-L3) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Liverpool on Sunday. Fulham (W2-D6-L9) suffered their first loss in six English Premier League matches on Saturday in their 1-0 loss at home to Chelsea.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cottagers have been settling from several draws as of late — they are now winless in their last seven EPL matches. This team is playing more cautiously as of late with an increased emphasis on defense under manager Scott Parker. However, this has taken away any bite they had in their attack. Fulham has mustered only 1.18 expected goals (xG) since their 2-0 loss to Manchester City on December 5th — and they have scored only three goals in those last seven EPL contests. The Cottagers are second-to-last in non-penalty kick xG. Fulham has been pretty stingy at home as of late where they have allowed only two goals hosting Liverpool, Brighton, Southampton, and Chelsea. But that defensive focus has come at a cost as the Cottagers have blanked in three straight home contests. Man United has rediscovered their defensive cohesion they enjoyed in the second half of last season when they went on a great defensive run. The Red Devils have registered three straight clean sheets across all competitions — and they have four clean sheets in their last six contests in all competitions. This team has been in their best form when away from Old Trafford. They have won seven of their nine league matches in league play with two draws against top-flight sides Liverpool and Leicester City being the two exceptions. They are also scoring goals in bunches with them registering at least three goals in six of their nine league matches away from home. I would certainly consider these results as due for some regression — but they have now been doing this for a full calendar year away from home. In their last 16 EPL road matches, Man United is averaging 1.77 xG while holding their home hosts to 1.23 expected goals allowed (xGA).
FINAL TAKE: Paul Pogba seems in better spirits with his team as of late — and when he is contributing, the Red Devils starting XI becomes quite powerful. Man United tends to overwhelm inferior opponents — they have scored 25 goals in their last eight league matches against promoted sides. Their vulnerability is against counter-attacking sides — but the Cottagers are not very aggressive in taking those chances (and they do not feature great attacking talent). The Red Devils have won their last four matches at Fulham with 12 goals scored and just one conceded. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-21 |
Chelsea v. Leicester |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
110 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W11-D2-L5) is unbeaten in six straight matches across all competitions after their 2-0 win against Southampton on Saturday. Chelsea (W8-D5-L5) comes off a 1-0 win at Fulham on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes as good as they have all season right now. They have scored 15 goals while conceding just four times in their last six matches. They have won three straight matches across all competitions with two clean sheets, eight goals scored and just one goal conceded. And in their last five matches in the English Premier League, Leicester City has three wins and two draws — and they have won the expected goals (xG) battle by at least +0.50 xG In four of those five contests. It is amazing what getting healthy can do for a side. The Foxes do not have the financial clout to buy a complete roster that compares to the Big Six sides like Chelsea. But their starting XI when at full strength compares favorably to almost every team in the EPL. Getting midfielders James Maddison and Wilfred Ndidi back on the pitch healthy makes a significant difference. Maddison is the team’s second-best scoring threat to Jamie Vardy — he scored the initial goal against the Saints on Saturday. His presence takes much of the pressure off Vardy. The rub with this Foxes team has been that much of their offense was dependent on penalty kicks early in the season — and relying on getting penalties is unsustainable (especially with officials not being as liberal when interpreting the handball rule as they were early on). Yet since December 22nd, Leicester City is sixth in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected goals which is a testament to the impact of Maddison’s return to action. Ndidi is one of the most underrated holding midfielders in the world. Since losing 3-0 at Liverpool on November 22nd, the Foxes have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.03 which is third-best in the league over that span. Ndidi and Maddison are probably the team’s second and third most important players after Vardy. Chelsea is in poor form right now with a W1-D1-L2 mark in their last four matches with eight goals conceded and just four goals scored. The Blues scored the winning goal against a weak Fulham side in the 78th minute despite holding a man advantage on the pitch after the 44th minute due to a Cottagers’ red card. Injuries have impacted the Chelsea defensive structure with Ngolo Kante and Reese James ailing. Since December 20th, the Blues rank 13th in non-penalty kick xGA with opponents have too much success with passes inside their penalty box area. This vulnerability caused manager Frank Lampard to overcompensate to help his defense — but that shift in tactics has led to the Blues offensive non-penalty xG to drop to ninth since December 20th. Lampard continues to be a work-in-progress as a manager. He has yet to push the right buttons to get the most out of all the talent that the franchise has developed and purchased over the last two years. Lampard expects to get James back on the pitch from his hamstring injury — but he will still be without Kante who remains one of the top-three holding midfielders in the world.
FINAL TAKE: Vardy has been dealing with a hip injury but he should be able to play in this important game this afternoon. These are two teams moving in opposite directions in terms of form — it is nice to be able to grab the Foxes at a pick ‘em for some insurance against a draw. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-18-21 |
Newcastle United v. Arsenal -1 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D3-L8) looks to rebound from a listless 0-0 draw at home against Crystal Palace last Thursday. Newcastle (W5-D4-L8) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners have been playing better as of late with three straight wins before their draw with the Eagles. Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions with four victories and four clean sheets — and they have a low expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.24 in those five matches. This recent stretch all started at home last month with a huge 3-1 victory over Chelsea in English Premier League action. Manager Mikel Arteta was starting to hear whispers of him being on the hot seat — and he responded by turning to some youngsters to instill some energy and enthusiasm into the starting XI. Kieran Tierney, Emile Smith-Rowe, and Bukayo Saka have all offered breaths of fresh air — although Tierney did not play last week with a calf injury. Frankly, Arsenal was flat and very disappointing in their energy and effort on Thursday. That performance certainly got Arteta’s attention — it needs to be addressed in this contest. The good news is that Tierney’s calf has improved and he should be on the pitch for this game. The last time the Gunners did not win a match was on December 19th when they lost to Everton by a 2-1 score — and it was after that match that Arteta coaxed his best effort of the season from his team in that upset win against Chelsea. This remains a team that has scored eight goals in their last three EPL matches. Newcastle is winless in their last eight matches in all competitions with six losses. In their loss to Sheffield United, they allowed one of the worst attacks in the league to generate 2.13 expected goals (xG). Manager Steve Bruce is firmly on the hot seat — and he may have lost the support of his players. He continues to play five defenders in an uninspired system that is not even generating better defensive play. The Magpies are allowing 1.62 xGA this season which is the sixth-worst in the league. They have allowed more than one goal in three of their last six matches. It is even worse on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to achieve 1.93 xG — and they have surrendered eight goals in their last three road matches in the EPL. They have also allowed multiple goals in three of their last five road contests. Yet playing five defenders has resulted in the Magpies attack being almost non-existent. Over their last five matches, Newcastle is producing only 0.66 non-penalty kick expected goals — and they have not scored a goal from open play in that span. The Magpies have also been shutout in five of their last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played nine days ago on January 9th in the FA Cup with Arsenal winning by a 2-0 score. The Gunners needed extra time to score those two goals — so they did not walk away from that match brimming with confidence. I am very high on Arteta as a tactician — I expect him to make some adjustments to create earlier scoring chances. If (and when) Arsenal scores earlier in this match, Bruce will have to have his team open up more — and those conditions should lead to the Gunners winning comfortably. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-21 |
Crystal Palace v. Arsenal -0.75 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-122 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Arsenal (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D2-L8) has won three straight matches in English Premier League action with their 4-0 win at West Brom on January 2nd. Crystal Palace (W6-D4-L7) snapped a five-game winless streak in the EPL on January 2nd with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Gunners’ manager Mikel Arteta found himself firmly on the hot seat last month with this Big Six EPL power underachieving relative to the sky-high expectations for this franchise. Yet everything turned around starting with a surprise 3-1 upset victory at home in the Emirates against Chelsea on Boxing Day on December 26th. Arsenal dominated the pitch against a good Blues team. The Gunners followed that up with a solid victory against Brighton and Hove Albion before their four-goal victory against West Brom. Arsenal last played on Saturday when they advanced in the FA Cup with a quality 2-0 victory against Newcastle United — that victory gave them four-straight wins across all competitions.
|
12-29-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers +1 v. Manchester United |
Top |
0-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W6-D3-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw against Tottenham on Sunday. Man United (W8-D3-L3) settled for a 1-1 draw at Leicester City on Saturday in their most recent match.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is unbeaten in the English Premier League since a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on November 1st. That loss to the Gunners continued to expose a weakness of this Red Devils team under Gunnar Solskjaer: they tend to struggle against defensive-minded counter-attacking sides. Remember, Man United did not advance out of the Group Stage of the Champions League last month because of a terrible 2-1 loss to Istanbul Basekeshir. Since that result, the Red Devils have settled for a nil-nil draw with Newcastle United while barely defeating a Sheffield United team by a 3-2 score that looks destined for relegation. The Man United defense has taken a step back from last season — they rank just 9th in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA) with that mark lowering to 11th in the league in xGA when playing at home at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have also been pretty fortunate with their 30 goals this season since their expected goals (xG) projects only 24.34 goals for them. Man United is 4th in the table with 27 points — but their 22.38 expected Points (xPTS) would place them seventh. Wolverhampton has some nice recent results with that draw with the Spurs and a 2-1 victory over Chelsea on December 15th. The Wolves miss Raul Jimenez as their striker — but this remains an organized team under manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Wolverhampton is not quite as stout defensively as they were last season when opponents managed only 0.92 xG in non-penalty kick scoring opportunities. That number has risen to 1.10 nonPK xGA this year — but that is still a stingy number.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolves thrive in the type of tactics that stymie Manchester United. This Red Devils team also has chemistry issues with Paul Pogba wanting to be released and Solskjaer continuing to sit on the hot seat given his team’s inconsistent play. A draw is very possible — and a Wolves upset is more likely than Man United winning by more than one goal. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-08-20 |
Manchester United v. RB Leipzig |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224358) with the goal-line versus Manchester United (224357) in Group H play in the Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W3-D0-L2) is unbeaten in three straight matches across all competitions after their 4-3 win at Istanbul Basaksehir last Wednesday in the Champions League. Manchester United (W3-D0-L2) looks to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Both these teams are tied with PSG in first-place in Group H. PSG is a -2.75 goal-line favorite against Istanbul Basahsehir so they are likely to be one of the two teams to advance to the knockout stage Round of 16. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 5-0 score on October 28th — so RB Leipzig needs the three points in this match that come from a victory. The Red Bulls do come off an impressive 3-3 draw on the road at Bayern Munich. RB Leipzig probably outplayed the reigning Champions League title-holders with 1.24 expected goals (xG) while holding the Bavarians to just 1.04 xG. RB Leipzig made the semifinals of the Champions League last August — this is a very good team. Across all competitions in the Bundesliga and Champions League this season, RB Leipzig has generated 1.81 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.06 xGA. Man United rebounded from their loss to PSG by defeating West Ham (playing without their best striker Mikhail Antonio) by a 3-1 score on Saturday. The Red Devils have looked vulnerable on defense as of late — their last two opponents have generated 5.83 xG. In their five Champions League matches, Man United is allowing 1.50 xG. With Fred getting issued a red card in that match with PSG, he will be suspended for this match. That means that manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will have to play Paul Pogba in the midfield despite his agent calling for him to be traded last week. I don’t like the chemistry of this Red Devils team right now. Pogba seems to be a tinder box — and the team has been inconsistent for the last year under Solskjaer and his questionable tactics. All Man United needs is a draw so they may play this match cautiously. On other hand, a loss might trigger Solskjaer’s firing since that would leave the Red Devils eliminated from the Champions League.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t read too much into the 5-0 score in the first meeting between these two teams. That was a close match at Old Trafford for the first 75 minutes before RB Leipzig got caught by Man United’s counter-attack late in the game as they needed to score to catch-up — and then the floodgates opened up. RB Leipzig gets to avenge that match at home in their Red Bull Arena. An outright win is very possible — with a push from a draw also possible (keeping the bet worth the risk). 25* Champions League Group Match H Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (224358) with the goal-line versus Manchester United (224357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-20 |
Inter Milan v. Borussia Monchengladbach +0.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-150 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (224228) plus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224227). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W2-D2-L0) returns to Champions League action after their 4-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk last Wednesday. Inter Milan (W0-D2-L2) looks to rebound from their 2-0 loss to Real Madrid in Champions League play last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Inter Milan is desperate for the three points that a victory would accrue in this match. In last place in the “Group of Death” in the Champions League with just two points, they have a long haul to overcome both Real Madrid and Borussia Monchengladbach with their 7 and 8 points respectively. Nerazzurri would need to win their last two matches and then hope Real Madrid defeats Monchengladbach in their final Group Stage match. That is not an impossible path. But manager Antonio Conte’s team faced urgency last week against Real Madrid — and they laid an egg with that lifeless 2-0 loss against a Los Blancos side missing two of their best players in Sergio Ramos and Karim Benzema. Nerazzurri comes off a 3-0 win over Sassuolo on Saturday in Serie A play — but they still have been a bit of a disappointment in the Italian top-flight where they are 5 points behind AC Milan for first place. This team is not playing with the typical high-level of defense that Conte’s teams displayed in his championship runs with Chelsea and Juventus. Inter Milan has allowed 13 goals in nine Serie A matches and they have surrendered seven goals in their four Champions League contests. They will also be without Arturo Vidal in this match who was issued a red card in the 37th minute of that match last week with Real Madrid. Borussia Monchengladbach would love to settle for a draw in this match since that would likely clinch their qualification for the Round of 16 (if Shaktar Donetsk loses to Real Madrid as a +1.25 goal-line underdog today). Die Fohlen are an offensive juggernaut that has scored 18 goals in their last five matches across all competitions. They come off a 4-1 victory over Schalke 04 on Saturday in the Bundesliga — they have scored eight goals in their last two matches with seven different players finding the back of the net. Manager Marco Rose has his team comfortable playing both an aggressive ball-dominant attack as well as a counter-attacking style (which they will probably employ this afternoon against an aggressive Inter Milan).
FINAL TAKE: Monchengladbach had a 2-1 late lead at Inter Milan in their reverse fixture in Group Stage play on October 21st. With Inter Milan being without Vidal and out of form, don’t be surprised if Die Fohlen pulls the outright upset — but take the +0.5 goal-line for some insurance. 25* Champions League Group B Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (224228) plus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224227). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-08-20 |
Liverpool +0.5 v. Manchester City |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Liverpool (200033) plus the goal-line versus Manchester City (200034). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D1-L1) has won five straight games across all competitions with their 2-1 win over West Ham last Saturday in their most recent English Premier League match. Manchester City (W3-D2-L1) is unbeaten across all competitions after their 1-0 win at Sheffield United last Saturday in their most recent EPL match.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool is dealing with injuries in their back-line with Virgil Van Dijk and Fabinho both out — but the Reds have won five straight games across all competitions since losing Van Dijk to his season-ending leg injury. The reigning EPL champs flexed their muscles o Tuesday in their last match in a dominant 5-0 victory at Atalanta in the Champions League. Atalanta is no slouch — they reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League last year. Liverpool has added another offensive juggernaut in Diogo Jota from Wolverhampton in the transfer window — he scored a hat trick against Atalanta after scoring a goal coming on a sub against West Ham. The Reds entered this matchweek leading the EPL in expected points (xPTS) — and they have won the expected goals (xG) in six of their seven matches. Liverpool also leads the EPL by averaging 2.46 xG per match — and they have scored at least two goals in nine straight league matches. The defense has been shaky with their injuries as they have allowed 15 goals in their seven matches. But they have been a bit unlucky in allowing those goals as well as their expected goals allowed (xGA) drops to just 8.47 goals on the season. Man City might be favored in this match based on them having much better xG numbers in the 2019-20 season despite Liverpool winning the title. However, the Cityzens are just 11th in the league this season in xPTS . Man City misses Sergio Aguero who has been out all year. Having to use Raheem Sterling as a striker disrupts the cohesion of their attack. In their last six matches, the Cityzens are averaging only 1.58 xG which is far below their 2.67 xG and 2.40 xG in their previous two seasons. They have managed only seven non-penalty kick Big Chances representing scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate. That 1.2 Big Chance per match rate is far below the 2.4 Big Chances they averaged in league play last year. They did get Gabriel Jesus back as their second striker on Tuesday in their 3-0 victory over Olympiakos in Champions League play but he is not as dynamic as Aguero.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool will have revenge on their minds as well after losing by a 4-0 score at Man City’s Etihad Stadium when these two teams last played on July 2nd. That was the first match the Reds played after clinching the 2019-20 EPL championship — so an emotional letdown was predictable. Jurgen Klopp has managed teams to defeat Pep Guardiola eight times in his career which is the most victories against the Man City manager. Liverpool could win this match — and a draw is also a likely result. Strong value play here. 20* EPL Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Liverpool (200033) plus the goal-line versus Manchester City (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-30-20 |
Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
109 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W3-D1-L2) looks to get back to their winning ways after settling for a 1-1 draw to Newcastle United last Sunday. Crystal Palace (W3-D1-L2) snapped a three-match winless streak with their 2-1 win at Fulham last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Crystal Palace benefited from facing the promoted Fulham side who may be the worst team in the premiership (pending their result on Monday with West Bromwich). The Eagles had the second-worst expected goals (xG) mark (excluding penalty kicks) along with the fewest shots in the box before that match last week. After managing just 0.14 expected goals three matches ago to Chelsea, they had zero shots in the box outside Wilfried Zaha’s penalty shot two matches ago against Brighton in a contest where they generated a Blutarski 0.0 xG mark in non-penalty kick scoring chances. Crystal Palace is playing very cautiously — but the problem is that they are still giving up plenty of scoring chances. The Eagles are third to last in the league by allowing their opponents to generate 1.80 xG. They have surrendered at least one goal in five straight EPL matches. Against a mediocre Fulham side, they allowed the second-most Big Chances (representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 38% success rate) all week. And while the win over Fulham was their second victory on the road this season after a surprising win at Manchester United last month, Palace was second-to-last in expected points (xPTS) in the EPL last season. Wolverhampton is unbeaten in their last three matches — and they were a few moments away from a three-game winning streak in the EPL before they surrendered a goal to Newcastle in the 89th minute last week. That was the only goal the Wolves have allowed in their last three league matches. Wolverhampton led the EPL with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.08. After a slow start this season, the Wolves have stepped up their play on defense. After allowing seven Big Chances along with 29 shots in the box in their first three matches, Wolverhampton has given up only two Big Chances in their last three matches along with just 21 combined shots in the box.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolves struggled to generate scoring opportunities last week against a Newcastle side content to not control possession and simply counter-attack. Wolverhampton perhaps got too content with yet another second-half 1-0 lead after winning their last two EPL matches by 1-0 scores via a second-half goal. The Wolves should find it easier to score against this Palace defense. Let’s remember that Wolverhampton has been a top-seven team in each of the last two seasons in the EPL since its promotion three years ago. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-28-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig +0.5 v. Manchester United |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig defeated Istanbul Basakehir last Tuesday in Champions League action. Manchester United upset Paris Saint-Germain last Tuesday by a 2-1 score in their opening match in the Champions League.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. After their surprising victory over a PSG team that lost to Bayern Munich in the Champions League finals over the summer, they then played to a listless 0-0 draw at home to Chelsea in their English Premier League match on Saturday. The deeper analytics suggest they were fortunate to get the win against PSG as they generated only 1.47 expected goals (xG) but allowed 1.59 expected goals (xGA). In their draw with the Blues, they put up a meager 0.78 xG. The Red Devils have some cohesion issues right now as they incorporate some new players they acquired from the transfer window. The enigmatic Paul Pogba is sulking. Manager Gunnar Solskjaer seems over his head at times. The attacking talent is there for this team — but their backline is another matter. Man United is W2-D1-L2 in the EPL so far this season with a bad 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace and a humiliating 6-1 loss to Tottenham on their resume. They are 17th in the league in net expected points differential. They are allowing their opponents to generate 1.98 xG. Furthermore, in their last three matches at home at Old Trafford, they are producing just 1.03 xG. RB Leipzig is not only one of the best sides in the Bundesliga but they have proven themselves on the international stage by reaching the semifinals of the Champions League over the summer where they lost to PSG. They have one of the best managers in the world in Julian Nagelsmann who has ensured his team did not miss a beat this season after losing Timo Werner to a mega-contract signing with Chelsea. Die Roten Bullen followed up their victory last week in the Champions League with a 2-1 win over Hertha Berlin whee they generated 2.70 xG while holding them to just 0.78 xG. RB Leipzig has won five of their last six matches across all competitions with a 1-1 draw with at a quality Bayer Leverkusen side in the Bundesliga representing their only blemish to that run. The Red Bulls sit atop the German top-flight table. They are averaging 2.18 xG in league play so far this season — but it is perhaps their 0.76 xGA that is more impressive given the high-scoring that takes place in the Bundesliga.
FINAL TAKE: Man United tends to play its best against teams that are aggressive in the attack. But generating offense from the counter-attack is also RB Leipzig’s bread-and-butter. Those are the teams that give Solskjaer’s team problems. A draw is likely — but don’t be surprised if the Red Bulls pull the upset with the better manager and far better team cohesion right now. 25* UEFA Champions League Underdog of the Month with RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-24-20 |
Real Madrid +0.5 v. Barcelona FC |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/24:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Saturday morning action is with Real Madrid plus the goal-line versus Barcelona. Real Madrid (W3-D1-L1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 loss to Cadiz last Saturday in their most recent La Liga match. Los Blancos followed that up on Wednesday with a shocking 3-2 loss to Shaktar Donetsk at home in Champions League play. What’s up? Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is not working very hard — and they appear jaded and a bit lackadaisical after using Project Restart over the summer to won the 2019-20 La Liga campaign. Many elite teams in Europe have struggled with their intensity with the return to league play this fall. Not having their heart-and-soul on the pitch midweek in Sergio Ramos did not help matters — but it will be near impossible to keep him away from this rivalry game. Barcelona has embraced a youth movement under first-year manager Ronaldo Koeman. But Lionel Messi is out-of-form and not in the best of spirits after wanting to leave the franchise in the offseason. The reigning La Liga champs are still playing better than Barca — they have 10.15 expected points in five league matches as compared to the 6.32 expected points Barcelona posts in four league matches. With no fans at Camp Nou, Barca are robbed of most of their home field advantage as well. Take Real Madrid with the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports begins Saturday on a RED HOT 13 of 19 (68%) All-Sports run over the last six days! Frank pushed the Leeds United-Aston Villa Under yesterday to continue his 44 of 70 (63%) Soccer run! Now Frank turns back to La Liga where he last CA$HED his 25* La Liga Match of the Year in July on Sevilla — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* La Liga Total of the Month for El Clasico between Real Madrid and Barcelona at 10 AM ET on beIN Sports! DON’T MISS IT!
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10-21-20 |
Liverpool -0.5 v. Ajax Amsterdam |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool begins its Champions League campaign coming off a 2-2 draw against Everton in English Premier League action on Saturday. Ajax comes off a 5-1 win over Heerenveen in Eredivisie action in the Dutch top-flight.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ajax is trying to rekindle the magic they had in the 2018-19 season where they made a run to the Semifinals of the Champions League where they lost to Tottenham. However, a bunch of the core talent from that team has now been poached by the bigger budget teams in Europe. Defenseman Matthijs DeLight signed with Juventus while Hakim Ziyech and Donny Van de Beek recently signed with Chelsea and Manchester United. This is a side that took a big step back last season in Champions League play where they failed to qualify for the last 16 knockout stage. They were W3-D1-L2 in group stage play with their 10 points just one shy of the qualifying second-place slot. But what was more troubling in Champions League play was their -6.5 net goal differential in expected goals where they overachieved on both ends of the pitch. Ajax scored 12 goals despite an expected goals (xG) mark of just 7.8. They also only allowed 6 goals despite their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 14.3. This season, Ajax has won four of their five matches in the Eredivisie national league — but that is not considered one of the top-tier professional leagues in Europe. Liverpool comes off a 2-2 draw against what has now become a loaded Everton team. They won the expected goals battle by a 2.85-1.35 xG mark. That effort erased any concerns I had about their surprising 7-2 loss to Aston Villa in EPL play. A number of the elite teams in the EPL have started slowly. I am writing these efforts off to the unique season where the players did not enjoy a traditional offseason given the summer Project Restart. The Reds are still loaded with talent. They did suffer two big injuries against Everton with both Virgil Van Dijk and Thiago Alcantara out for this match. Thiago was a very nice offseason acquisition who was playing in his first match with his new club on Saturday — so his loss is not a big subtraction. The loss of Van Dijk is more significant as he will likely miss the rest of the season with his torn ACL. Not having Van Dijk will not impact the Liverpool attack as much since it has right-back Andre Robertson who has become their primary attacker who advances from the backline to assist Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino. Van Dijk will be replaced by either Fabinho or Naby Keito who is back in training from his injury. The Reds will be fine. They won the Champions League in 2019 against the Spurs team that defeated Ajax in the Semifinals. They won the EPL last season. And they need to get back to their winning ways after a slow start to their EPL campaign.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches versus Ajax who have only one win in their last six matches from teams from England. Ajax hosts this match (without fans) in their Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam — but they have only won once in their last seven opportunities to host an English professional team. Ajax is rebuilding with some nice young talent — but their inexperience against elite sides will do them this afternoon. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-19-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 v. Leeds United |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W2-D0-L2) returns to the pitch after the international break looking to build off their 1-0 win over Fulham on October 4th. Leeds United (W2-D1-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have started slow this season with two losses to Man City and West Ham. The early season for this team has been hit-or-miss as they also manage the Europa League campaign with a roster that does not have the same depth as the power franchises in the English Premier League. But this remains the same team that has finished 7th in the EPL in each of the last two seasons since being promoted from the Championship League. They have one of the best managers in Espirito Nuno Santo — and they are acquiring more and more top-end talent to bolster their solid core group of players. There have been some transition issues with the change of roster over the transfer window. The Wolves were the best defensive team in the EPL last season with an expected goal allowed mark of 1.08. Their counter-attacking system matches up quite well with the uber-aggressive counter-attack of this Leeds team from their outstanding manager Marcelo Bielsa. The Whites will send their entire midfield along with their forwards when they initiate their counter-attack. This gives Leeds the best-of-both-worlds approach where they will park the bus for much of the match before becoming hyper-aggressive when they get the opportunity to attack. Their exciting 4-3 loss to Liverpool that opened the season displayed how wild their matches can become. But the Wolves are not the pressing-styled team from which Bielsa’s approach was designed to exploit. Nuno will not deviate from their defensive-shape — and they lead the EPL so far this season in expected goals coming from fast breaks. Leeds is allowing their opponents to post a 2.05 expected goals mark which is third-worst in the league. They are also getting beat by a 0.67 expected goals differential per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Leeds may be without their captain Liam Cooper who is a doubt with a groin injury. Coming off the international break, I expect the Wolves to start playing better. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-18-20 |
Aston Villa v. Leicester -0.25 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L1) returns to action after their 3-0 loss at home to West Ham back on October 4th in their last EPL match. Aston Villa (W3-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after their 7-2 upset victory over Liverpool on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes had been riding high winning their first three matches in the new EPL season after a dominant 5-2 statement win at Manchester City. They were perhaps due for an emotional letdown against the Hammers last week. The Foxes also maintained their back-five formation from their win over Man City against West Ham which is puzzling since that is a good counter to a pressing team like the Cityzens but less strategic against a similar counter-attacking team like the Hammers. Look for Leicester City to return to their typical 4-1-4 formation. Even after getting shutout in their last EPL match before the international break, the Foxes still entered this match week tied for the lead in the league with 12 goals. They are dealing with some injuries with the absence of Wilfried Ndidi most concerning to me — but they also upset Man City undermanned including not having Ndidi to patrol their defensive midfield. Leicester City remains a clear top-half of the table team who should compete to qualify for the Champions League after narrowly missing in the summer with their fifth-place final result after Project Restart. Aston Villa has been the surprise of the league with their perfect 3-0 start which was culminated with their shocking victory over the reigning EPL champs. It was just less than three months ago that they avoided relegation on the last day of the EPL campaign. The Villans are playing better as they are unbeaten in their last seven matches. And they have made some nice additions in the transfer window. Yet, let’s keep perspective. Three of their goals against Liverpool came via a deflection. They opened the season with a victory over a rebuilding Sheffield United side who were playing with ten men most of that match — yet Aston Villa managed just a 1.04 expected goals mark in that match. The Villans then defeated a Fulham team that looks likely to be the doormats of the league. Aston Villa has scored 11 goals but their expected goals drop to just 5.91.
FINAL TAKE: The Villans may be in second place entering the week but the expected points metric (xPTS) places them just 10th in the league. This will be just their second road match of the season after defeating Fulham away from home — and they were second to last season in expected goal differential on the road. They are likely to experience a rude awakening against an angry Leicester City side. 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-03-20 |
Burnley v. Newcastle United |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W0-D0-L2) is looking for their first victory of the season after losing last Saturday at home to Southampton by a 1-0 score. Newcastle (W1-D1-L1) pulled out a 1-1 draw at Tottenham last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE BURNLEY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Newcastle was very fortunate to get the one point from the Spurs last week. A controversial VAR handball call awarded the Magpies a penalty kick in extra time which Callum Wilson converted to earn the draw. Tottenham dominated the expected goals (xG) metric in that match with a 3.49 xG mark as compared to Newcastle’s 1.07 xG. The Magpies had a rough -20 net goal differential for the 2019-20 season — and they were 2nd to last in net xG differential with a -30.54 mark. They opened the season with a 2-0 victory over a struggling West Ham side — but they have played well in their last two games against Brighton and the Spurs. In these last two matches, Newcastle has generated just 0.70 non-penalty kick xG while allowing those two opponents to generate 4.31 non-penalty kick xG. The only shot that the Magpies have managed on target in their last two matches was that Wilson penalty kick in the waning moments of that match with Tottenham. After three games in league play, Newcastle is averaging only 1.06 xG. This team is riddled with injuries right now which is not a good development for mid-table teams that cannot afford to purchase roster depth. The Magpies return home to St. James where they have lost their last three matches in EPL action. Burnley lost a tough one to a likely top-ten team in the Saints last week — but they did hold them to just 0.55 xG. In their opening match against another top-ten (top-five?) side in Leicester City, they lost by a 4-2 score but won the expected goals battle by a 1.43-1.33 xG mark. The Clarets lost only two of their last sixteen EPL matches to close out 2019-20 — and they were W2-D5-L1 against top-ten opponents. For comparison's sake, their net xG differential was just -4.5 last season. Manager Sean Dyche gets the most of his talent at Burnley while playing a very disciplined and compact system. They have only allowed two Big Chances all season despite allowing five goals overall — a few were scored in freakish ways. This team has also been hit hard by injuries — but they do get starting defenseman James Tarkowski to anchor the backline again. The Clarets are also reliable when playing on the road where they are W3-D1-L1 in their last five EPL matches. Burnley generated 26 points away from home last season which was more than Arsenal, Tottenham, and Leicester City accrued.
FINAL TAKE: Burnley won one match and settled for a draw in their other encounter with Newcastle in league play last year. The Clarets need a win to jump up the table — and this is a golden opportunity. Burnley under Dyche is very consistent. A draw is likely the worst-case scenario — but I consider the Clarets the better team and they are playing on the road in an empty stadium. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Paris Saint-Germain |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
104 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224301) mini the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset vicory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. Paris Saint-Germain took easy care of an RB Leipzig squad that finished well behind Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga — but they struggled to defeat Atalanta in the Quarterfinal as they needed to score two late goals to steal that 2-1 victory. I worry about the quality of opponents that PSG faced to reach the Finals. They defeated Real Madrid in the Group Stage — but that was a team that did not find themselves until after the restart this summer. RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund are good teams — and Atalanta had a surprising season in Serie A. But none of PSG’s opponents won their European professional league. Ligue 1 is not considered as strong as the English Premier League, the Bundesliga, La Liga, or even the Italian Serie A.
FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, PSG’s lack of experience in big games will hurt them here. And it does not help that part of Neymar’s reputation is failing to produce in big games. This match could be the coming out party for Bayern Munich stars like Alphonso Davies and Joshua Kimmich. 10* UEFA Champions League Bayern Munich-PSG Special with Bayern Munich (224301) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Barcelona FC |
Top |
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Despite the final score, Barcelona was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They managed only six non-penalty shots in the game with zero Big Chances representing a scoring opportunity with at least a success rate of 35% or better. Frankly, I kept the jury out for this Barca team waiting to see what lineup manager Quique Setien would deploy with the La Liga season completed. The Blaugranas could put out a very intriguing XI if Setien were to go young and lean on rising stars like Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati to play alongside Lionel Messi who is still fantastic. Instead, Setien stayed committed to his aging veterans who have lost a step or two (or three). Puig did not even play last week! Setien’s lineup, tactics, and even his demeanor were puzzling last week — he may be resigned to his impending resignation after taking over for Ernesto Valverde in January. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG. Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 xG while holding these opponents to just 0.72 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is one of five teams in the top-five European professional leagues to generated a +1.0xG per 90 minutes or better ratio. The four other teams to pull that feat were Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, and Atalanta with all four of those teams in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Barcelona had just a +0.80 xG per 90 minutes this season for comparisons' sake. The Blaugranas have beaten Bayern Munich only twice in their last ten matches against them with six losses including a 7-0 drubbing in 2013 after Barca endured a similar turbulent season where they were clearly on the decline. Sounds familiar. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals *A-List* Special with Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-13-20 |
Atletico Madrid -0.25 v. Lokomotive Leipzig |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage when they defeated Liverpool on the road by a 3-2 score on March 11th in the second leg of their Round of 16 showdown. RB Leipzig advanced to the Quarterfinals of this event the day before on March 10th when they defeated Tottenham by a 3-0 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Handicapping the German Bundesliga closely this summer convinced me that RB Leipzig is a bit of a paper tiger. The Red Bulls load up against the bottom teams in the league — but they only registered one victory against the top four teams in the standings consisting go Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and Borussia Monchengladbach. While manager Julian Nagelsmann has his team play tight defense, RB Leipzig can struggle to score goals. They have scored only two goals in their last three contests — and they have managed just eight goals in their last six contests across all competitions. They scored just once in their last match in a friendly against Wolfsburg that ended in a 1-1 draw. To compound matters, they will be playing this match without their best offensive talent in Timo Werner as he signed a big contract with Chelsea and decided to begin training with his new team. The Red Bulls will miss his 32 goals across all competitions this year. Rust may be a factor as well with the Bundesliga concluding on June 27th — RB Leipzig has only had that one friendly two weeks ago since that time. The cohesion of the Red Bulls’ defense was already starting to wane towards the end of the season as they have not had a clean sheet in their last four contests. This team settled for too many draws during the league play. They only lost four matches in the Bundesliga which was the same as league champs Bayern Munich — but their 12 draws illuminated their inability to put away lesser teams in the league. The loss of Werner does not inspire confidence that this team will discover a clutch gene. Atletico Madrid proved their mettle by upsetting the reigning Champions League titleholders in Liverpool in the Round of 16. Los Colchoneros play dogged defense that stifles the will of their opponents. They held their La Liga opponents to just 0.97 expected goals (xG) — and their Champions League opponents this year managed just 1.11 xG. The victory over Liverpool jumpstarted the confidence of this team as they returned from the stoppage of play by going unbeaten in their eleven La Liga matches with seven victories while outscoring those opponents by a 20 to 6 margin. Atletico Madrid enters this match undefeated in their last eighteen matches. A tactical move also made this team much better over that span as manager Diego Simeone’s decision to move Marcos Llorente up top to serve as a second-striker ignited the offensive attack of the Red and Whites. This is a very confident team.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be happy to be here at this point in their campaign with it being the young organization’s first appearance in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Atletico Madrid has been in the Quarterfinals of this event in five of the last seven years while reaching the Semifinals in 2016 and 2017. Simeone is one of the best managers in the world — and he is eyeing his first Finals opportunity with this team. In what should be a defensive struggle, look for the Atletico Madrid counterattack to create too many scoring chances for RB Leipzig to keep up. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-20 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Everton |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
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At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). THE SITUATION: Everton (W13-D10-L14) looks to end their season on a high note after a 1-0 victory at Sheffield United on Monday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L22) has lost nineteen of their last twenty-six matches after their 2-0 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is playing for the EPL lives in this match as they begin the day in 19th place in the table. They are three points behind both Aston Villa and Watford — so the Cherries need a victory while seeing one of those teams lose to then stave off relegation. The problem for manager Eddie Howe’s team is that they have been in this desperation situation since Project Restart yet they are just W1-D1-L6 in those contests while being outscored by a 17 to 8 margin. Bournemouth has lost nine of their last twelve matches where they have been outscored by a 26 to 12 margin — and they have lost twelve of their last seventeen contests. The Cherries have been even worse on the road where they have lost twelve of their last thirteen contests. A porous defense is the biggest problem for this team that plays aggressively but lacks a “Plan B”. They have surrendered 40 goals in their last twenty league matches. They have also given up 34 goals in their seventeen road matches in the EPL — and they have an expected goal allowed mark of 1.92 (xGA). To compound matters, Howe is dealing with a depleted defensive backline with Adam Smith and Nathan Ake dealing with injuries. Howe hopes both can play — Ake is their best defender but may not be able to recover from the groin injury that has kept him out the last two matches. The Cherries have lost fifteen of their twenty-five matches against non-Big Six sides this season — and they have lost nine of their twelve road games against non-Big Six teams while only scoring eight goals in those games and conceding 21 times. Everton played one of their best matches since the restart in spoiling Sheffield United’s Europa League ambitions with that victory on the road. The Toffees have conceded only seven goals in their eight matches since the restart. Motivation is a question with this team — but manager Carlo Ancelotti read this team the riot act a week ago after a bad 3-0 loss to Wolverhampton. Everton has not lost since. Not only does Ancelotti want to continue to see a consistent effort but he is building for next year where he expects this team to finish in the Top-Six. Ancelotti is a serious manager with three UEFA Champions League titles with Inter Milan and Real Madrid. Since he took over in December, the Toffees have lost only five times — and these were all to quality opponents in Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, and the Wolves. Everton has the 7th best record in the league since Ancelotti took over. This team has also been tough to beat at home in Goodison Park where they have lost only once since September. The Toffees are unbeaten in their nine home matches under Ancelotti with five victories. And they are W7-D3-L2 in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six sides this season. Everton is also averaging a solid 1.62 expected goals (xG) at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss at Bournemouth in the reverse fixture back on September 15th. The Toffees have won all of their four opportunities to host the Cherries in their history while scoring 12 goals in those contests. Bournemouth must win this match — and that means they will be playing very aggressively. Look for Everton to score in the counterattack against a vulnerable and depleted Cherries’ backline. Dominic Calvert-Lewin may even get into the scoring act as he has shown signs of life after a dismal display since the restart. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with the Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-20-20 |
Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
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At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W14-D14-L8) enters this match looking to build off their 1-1 draw at Burnley last Wednesday. Crystal Palace (W11-D9-L16) has lost six straight matches after their 2-0 loss to Manchester United on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have rebounded from losing two straight matches to begin the month by defeating Everton by a 3-0 score before earning the point with the draw on the road at a feisty Burnley side. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo has wisely begun to rotate his starting XI given the busy break after his regular starters looked exhausted during this busy fixture schedule. The five days off between matches will greatly benefit this team. Wolverhampton is W4-D1-LW in their seven matches since the return while limiting their opponents to just four combined goals scored. They have limited their opponents to just 0.64 expected goals (xG) per game in Project Restart which is the stingiest mark in the league. For the season, the Wolves have an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.15 which is the best in the EPL. They have allowed only 26 non-penalty kick Big Chances representing scoring chances with at least a 35% success rate. They return home to Molineaux where they generated a robust 3.19 xG in their last home match in that win against Everton. Over their last six home games, Wolverhampton is generating 1.64 xG while limiting their opponents to just 0.47 xGA. They are also undefeated in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six opponents at home with six wins and a decisive 17-5 goal differential. Crystal Palace began the restart with an encouraging 2-0 win at Bournemouth which extended their clean sheet streak to four matches. But, in hindsight, that game said more about the sorry state of a Cherries team that is in serious danger of being relegated. The Eagles have since lost six straight matches where they have surrendered 15 goals while scoring just two times. The deeper metrics confirm those troubling numbers as Crystal Palace has generated just 0.75 xG per match while surrendering a whopping 2.08 xGA in those contests. The Eagles have been the second-worst team (to Norwich City) in the return to action — they have managed only four Big Chances on offense while leading the EPL in most Big Chances surrendered. They go back on the road where -0.85 expected goal differential (xGD) is worst in the EPL. They have failed to score in their last three road games while allowing nine goals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park back on September 22nd. Crystal Palace has nothing to play for at this point of the season with them mathematically clear of relegation in the middle of the table but far removed from any chances to qualify for the Europa League in the fall. The Wolves need the three points that come with a victory to help their Europa ambitions. With Tottenham in the English FA Cup Finals, they may vulture one of the two Europa qualify spots from EPL teams leaving just the 5th place team in the table gaining entry as the second team from the league. A victory for Wolverhampton lifts them one point above the surging Spurs in the EPL table. 10* English Premier League Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-20 |
Real Sociedad v. Atletico Madrid -0.25 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-66 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (201834) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201833). THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid (W18-D15-L4) is unbeaten in their last seventeen matches across all competitions after they defeated Getafe on the road on Thursday by a 2-0 score. Real Sociedad (W16-D7-L14) enters this final match of the 2019-20 La Liga season with a nil-nil draw at home to Sevilla.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Atletico has not lost in their last fifteen matches in La Liga while holding their opponents to just a 1.01 expected goals (xG) mark in their ten matches since the return to play. Atletico Madrid has won seven of their ten matches in Project Restart while scoring 19 times and holding their opponents to just five goals. Atleti is an outstanding defensive team under manager Diego Simeone. They have two straight clean sheets which make six shutouts in their ten matches since the return. They also have eight clean sheets in their last twelve contests. But what has made this team dangerous is Simeone’s move to place midfielder Marcos Llorente up front as a second attacker alongside Alvaro Morata. That surprise move helped Atletico Madrid upset Liverpool in the Round of Sixteen in the European Champions League. Atleti is 3rd in La Liga by averaging 1.53 expected goals (xG) since the return. This is a very consistent team that has won the xG battle in eight of their last ten matches along within 28 of their 37 league games this season. They host this match where they have scored in thirteen straight contests and where they have lost only once in their last twenty-four league games. In their last twelve home games across all competitions, Atletico Madrid is W10-D2-L0 while scoring 20 goals and conceding just five times. Real Sociedad was riding high in the top-four of the La Liga table before the COVID stoppage — and this young team did not return in shape physically or mentally to take on the renewed challenge. They have won only twice in their ten matches while getting outscored by a 14 to 11 margin. They are posting a low 1.16 xG in those contests. Now they go back on the road where they have a -6.14 expected goal differential which is in the bottom half of the league. They are just W1-D1-L2 in their last four road games while getting outscored by a 6 to 4 margin. They have also failed to post a clean sheet in their last six road games. To compound matters, manager Imanol Alguacial is dealing with a host of injuries in this final game of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad is still in the running to qualify for the Europa League in the fall — but they have a few avenues to qualify even if they lose this match including the opportunity to gain automatic entry with a victory in the Copa Del Rey final next month. Atletico Madrid is in 3rd place and already qualified for the Champions League — but they want to avoid a loss which could see them finish in 4th place behind Sevilla which would then require them to play a qualifying match to enter next year’s Champions League. Besides Simeone wants to keep his team in form for their date with RB Leipzig in the Quarterfinals of the Champions League next month. And he can motivate his team wit the memory of them losing the reverse fixture at Real Sociedad back on September 14th by a 2-0 score. 10* La Liga Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atletico Madrid (201834) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201833). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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