03-21-19 |
Minnesota v. Louisville UNDER 137 |
Top |
86-76 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (21-13) enters the NCAA Tournament looking to bounce-back from a 76-49 loss to Michigan in the Semifinals of the Big Ten tournament last Saturday as a 9-point underdog. Louisville (20-13) has lost two of their last three games with their 83-70 loss to North Carolina last Thursday as a 7-point underdog. This East regional game is being played in Des Moines, Iowa.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Rick Pitino should have his team play tough defense after they allowed the Wolverines to make 51.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Minnesota has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while that game with Michigan finished below the 131 point total, the Golden Gophers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Under the Total. Pitino has this team playing better defense to close out the regular season (despite getting stung by Michigan). They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.9% field goal percentage — and those last five opponents made just 32.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Overall, Minnesota has the 40th best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. But this team can struggle to score points especially on the road where they make only 40.7% of their shots which translates into just 63.6 PPG which is over 7 PPG below their season average. The Golden Gophers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. Louisville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Chris Miller has this team playing a tough pack-line defense that has the Cardinals ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Louisville will be protecting the rim in this game and daring this Gophers team that makes just 32.1% of their 3-pointers (285th in the nation) to shooting from the outside. The Cardinals have held their last five opponents to just a 37.5% shooting percentage. But Louisville is only making 40.3% of their shots over that span. This team can struggle versus zone defenses that Pitino may have his team deploy at times. The Cardinals rely heavily on 3-point shooting as 43.7% of their shots from the field come from downtown (55th in the nation). But Minnesota defense the perimeter well as they ranked 27th in the nation by limiting their opponents to taking just 33.7% of their shots from behind the arc (27th in the nation) — and only 29.1% of their opponent's points come from 3s. Furthermore, Louisville has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams play a little slower than the national average of 17.5 seconds per possession. Look for Minnesota to play very physical against this Louisville team that is small and can be a bit soft. This should be a grinding low-scoring game to open the Round of 64. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-19 |
Belmont v. Temple OVER 155 |
Top |
81-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). THE SITUATION: Belmont (26-5) was upset in the Finals of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament back on March 9th by a 77-65 score as a 2-point favorite. Temple (23-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 80-74 upset loss to Wichita State as a 1.5-point favorite. The First Four games take place on a neutral court in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins shot only 39.1% from the field which was the worst field goal percentage for them in their last 15 games — their second-lowest shooting mark over that span was much higher at 47.3%). This uber-efficient Belmont team is 3rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%. They execute Houston Rockets offensive basketball by shunning midrange jump shots for 3-pointers or shots at the rim: they are 2nd in the nation with a 59.5% shooting percentage inside the arc while also averaging 10.5 made 3-pointers per game. They also play at a fast pace as their 15.9 seconds per possession average is the 29th fastest in the nation — and that tempo increased in conference play where they averaged 15.2 seconds per possession. This up-tempo attack generated 64 shot attempts per game — and the Owls have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 62 shots per game. The Bruins have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while Belmont has still covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after covering five or six of their last seven games. The Bruins should find plenty of success attacking the thin Temple frontline that is allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their shots inside the arc which was second-to-last in the American Athletic Conference. Belmont averages a robust 87.4 PPG this season — and they have played 33 of their last 52 games Over the Total when favored. And while they have played three straight Unders, the Bruins have then played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Belmont has also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points — and they have played their last three games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points on a neutral court. Temple made only 39.1% of their shots in their loss to the Shockers on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Owls has the third best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the AAC while averaging 74.8 PPG for the year. Their trio of starting guards, Shizz Alston, Jr., Quinton Rose, and Nate Pierre-Louis combined to average 49.5 PPG together. Temple has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while this is just their second game since March 9th, the Owls have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing no more than their second game in seven days. Furthermore, while Temple has won six of their last eight games, they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Owls finished 3rd in the conference by making 35.3% of their 3-point shots — and this Bruins team allowed their OVC opponents to make 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc which was 9th in the conference. Belmont is an elite passing team that is 7th in the nation by assisting on 61.9% of their made field goals — and they average a 20 Assists-Per-Game. Temple has played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that average at least 16 Assists-Per-Game. The Owls have also played 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Over is 16-4-1 in their last 21 games played on a neutral court — and they have played four of their last five games Over the Total when playing as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: These are two mediocre defensive teams. While Belmont had the 3rd best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Ohio Valley Conference, they were just 127th in that metric for the entire season. Temple ranked 7th in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking 90th overall for the entire season. The Owls also played at the third fastest pace in a conference that has many teams play at a crawl. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 230 |
Top |
110-88 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (508). THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-21) has won two of their last three games with their upset 106-104 win in Houston on Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. Oklahoma City (42-27) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 108-106 upset loss in Indiana as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. This team travels to Oklahoma City likely without the benefit of Kevin Durant who has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight’s game with an ankle injury — and that takes away a big piece of the Golden State offensive attack. As it is, the Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 34 of their last 51 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Golden State has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total in their last four contests against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 19 games in the month of March where this team starts to get in playoff mode on the defensive end of the court, Golden State has played 15 of these games Under the Total. Oklahoma City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is playing lower scoring games on both ends of the court as of late. Over their last five games, they are averaging 110.2 PPG on 41.5% shooting from the field while allowing 106.4 PPG on 41.5% shooting — those numbers are all lower than their 114.9 PPG with a 45.7% shooting mark on offense and their 110.9 PPG and 45.8% opponent’s field goal mark on defense for the season. The Thunder return home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 18 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, OKC has played 15 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State is looking to avenge an embarrassing 123-95 loss at home to Oklahoma City back on November 21st — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss at home. These two teams have played 17 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total which includes 5 of 6 Unders when playing in Oklahoma City. 25* NBA Saturday Prime-Time ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-19 |
San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 135 |
Top |
57-64 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (21-12) reached the Finals of the Mountain West Conference tournament with their 65-56 upset win over Nevada yesterday as a 9-point underdog yesterday. Utah State (27-6) joined them with their 85-60 blowout win over Fresno State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. The MWC tournament takes place in the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas so this is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aztecs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. San Diego State has also played a decisive 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Aztecs made only 42.6% of their shots last night in their victory — yet that was the best shooting effort for them in their last four contests. San Diego State had made only 34.6% and 29.8% of their shots in their previous two contests — and they are shooting just 39.6% from the field over their last five games. This team is very susceptible to experience long scoring droughts. They rank 8th in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as they struggle to shoot the basketball: they also rank 8th in the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. Much of the Aztecs’ offense comes from second-chance opportunities as they rank 4th in the conference by pulling down 28.4% of their missed shots. But good luck with that against this Aggies team that leads the MWC by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 22.8% of their missed shots. San Diego State does play strong defense as they rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have limited their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Aggies have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the MWC. They have made at least 48.5% of their shots in three straight games while scoring at least 81 points in four straight games. But Utah State has then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. And while the Aggies have played four straight Overs, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Furthermore, Utah State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games this season with the Aggies winning the last meeting by a 70-54 score on their home court back on February 26th. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-19 |
UC-Davis v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
71-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (11-19) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 71-70 upset loss at home to UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. CS-Fullerton (14-16) has lost three of their last four games with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Hawai’i as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Big West tournament is played on a neutral court at the Honda Center in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 38-16-1 in Cal-Davis’ last 55 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 42-15-1 in their last 58 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies got upset in that game despite them making 52.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Cal-Davis ranks only 8th in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also score only 63.7 PPG when playing away from home while making just 41.9% of their shots. But the Aggies should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing UC-Riverside to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last six games. Cal-Davis ranks 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. Additionally, the Aggies have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Titans have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and this includes them playing five of their last six games Under the Total when that loss to a conference rival took place on their home court. Furthermore, Fullerton has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after losing three of their last four games. The Titans play very good defense as they rank 2nd in the Big West in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage when playing on the road. But Fullerton only ranks 7th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making just 42.8% of their shots over their last five games. The Titans have played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Fullerton will be looking to avenge a 66-59 loss to Cal-Davis back on March 2nd. The Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they failed to score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Big West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-19 |
Creighton v. Xavier UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). THE SITUATION: Creighton (18-13) has won five straight games after their 91-78 win over DePaul as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Xavier (17-14) has won six of their last seven games with their 81-68 victory over St. John’s as a 2-point favorite. These two teams meet in the Quarterfinals of the Big East taking place at Madison Square Garden which makes this a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Musketeers winning streak over the last month or so has been due to significantly improved play on the defensive end of the court. Xavier has held their last five opponents to just a 42% field goal percentage. The Musketeers have played 7 of the last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Xavier has also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Musketeers made 51.9% of their shots against the Red Storm which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But Xavier makes only 44.9% of their shots away from home. The Bluejays allow their opponents to make 45.8% of their shots — but the Musketeers have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Xavier has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Additionally, the Musketeers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Creighton has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory on their home court. And while the Bluejays have covered the point spread in five straight games with the last two contests being in games where they were favored, Creighton has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering their last two games as a favorite. Furthermore, the Bluejays have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Creighton is very dependent on making 3-point shots — they are 2nd in the Big East with 48.7% of their field goal attempts being from behind the arc. But while the Bluejays are making 39.6% of their 3-point shots, that clip drops to a 35.8% mark when playing away from home. Creighton has played 21 of their last 31 games on the road Under the Total against conference opponents. The Bluejays have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will also have revenge on their minds after seeing Xavier split their two regular-season games with a 64-61 upset win as a 1-point underdog back on February 13th. The Bluejays have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by no more than 3 points. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-19 |
Florida Atlantic v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 134 |
Top |
56-57 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). THE SITUATION: FAU (17-14) has lost their last two games with their 76-61 loss at Marshall as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (19-12) snapped their two-game losing streak last Wednesday with their 72-69 upset win at Florida Atlantic as a 2-point favorite. The Conference USA tournament takes place in Frisco, Texas which makes this a true neutral home court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, FAU experienced a massive scoring drought in the final ten minutes in the first half of their game with the Thunder Herd as they managed only 4 points — and they went into halftime with just 28 points scored overall to neutralize their fast start. The Owls have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half of their last game. Scoring is a problem for this team as they rank 11th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Conference USA — and they are making only 40.4% of their shots over their last five games. This team only makes 40.5% of their shots when playing away from home. FAU is playing very good defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 37.6% shooting. The Owls rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. FAU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Louisiana Tech made 47.9% of their shots against the stout Owls’ defense which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But this Bulldogs team is just 9th in Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.9% of their shots on the road. But this Louisiana Tech team also plays strong defense as they rank 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their conference foes to a 41.7% field goal percentage. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: FAU won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-61 score back on January 31st — and the Owls have played 10 of the last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a close by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-19 |
CS Sacramento v. Northern Arizona UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
72-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Sacramento State (14-15) enters the Big Sky Tournament coming off an 86-68 loss at home to Montana last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Northern Arizona (10-20) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 89-78 upset win at Northern Colorado as a 13-point underdog. The Big Sky tournament is played in Century Link Arena in Boise, Idaho which makes it a true neutral court for both these teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Brian Katz will want his team to improve their efforts on defense after allowing the Grizzlies to make 59.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Hornets play pretty good defense away from home as they hold those opponents to just a 44.9% field goal percentage. Sacramento State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game with Montana finished above the 137 point Total, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The bigger challenge for this team will be scoring baskets as they rank ninth in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 41.3% of their shots over their last five games — and they average just 65.3 PPG along with a 41.4% field goal percentage when playing away from home. Furthermore, the Hornets have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Northern Arizona made only 43.7% of their shots on Saturday and still pulled off the upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and yet that was still the best shooting effort for this team in their last three games. The Lumberjacks are making only 41.8% of their shots from the field in their last five games. But this team is playing solid on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to only a 43.5% field goal percentage. Northern Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games on the road Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. Now this team stays away from home for the fourth straight game where they are making just 43.7% of their shots. The Lumberjacks are just seventh in the Big Sky conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Northern Arizona has played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. The Lumberjacks have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento State will be motivated by revenge from a 78-66 upset loss to Northern Arizona as a 7-point home favorite back on February 16th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when looking to avenge an upset loss to their opponent as a home favorite in their last encounter. These two teams have played their 6 straight meetings Under the Total. Lastly, the cherry on top for this situation is that it will be played at 9:30 AM local time. While these early tip-off situations should never be automatic plays since the tendency for teams to be a bit groggy at the unconventional early hour, this still represents only another piece of evidence. In these circumstances, it certainly helps in making a strong Under play even better. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-19 |
St. Mary's v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
60-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (21-11) has won six of their last seven games to reach the West Coast Conference tournament championship game with their 69-62 loss to San Diego last night as a 4.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (30-2) comes off a 100-74 win win over Pepperdine last night as a 24-point favorite. This tournament is being played at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas which makes it a true neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 59.7% of their shots last night which was the sixth straight games where they made at least 52.8% of their shots. Gonzaga had 26 team assists against the Wave last night as they assisted on a whopping 70.3% of their made field goals — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 team assists. The Bulldogs have also played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. Gonzaga enjoyed a 47-26 halftime lead last night — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by at least 20 points — and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Gonzaga has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. This Bulldogs team has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the nation — but they are also an underrated defensive team. They were lax at times in the first two months of the season in their effort — and they were exposed in back-to-back losses to Tennessee and North Carolina. In West Coast Conference play, the Zags limited their opponents to score at just a 0.863 Points-Per-Possession clip. Gonzaga also ranks 7th run the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just of 44.1% — and that is particularly important when facing this Gaels’ team that relies on their shooting. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and this includes them played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Head coach Mark Few should have his team focused on playing better on the defensive end of the court after they allowed Pepperdine to make 44.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last nine games. Saint Mary’s made 53.1% of their shots last night in their victory over the Toreros which was the highest shooting mark they have enjoyed in their last nine contests. The Under is then 35-14-2 in the Gaels’ last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 54-24-1 in their last 79 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Saint Mary’s has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. This Gaels’ team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the West Coast Conference. Moving forward, Saint Mary’s has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga swept the first two meetings between these two teams in the regular season with Saint Mary’s scoring at just a 0.67 PPP and 0.87 PPP rate. The Gaels’ defense improved in the second game after allowing the Zags to torch them for a 1.45 PPP scoring rate. Saint Mary’s improved to see the Bulldogs score at a 1.10 PPP mark which, while still efficient, was below their season average. The Gaels have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least double revenge. Lastly, these two teams have played 20 of their last 26 meetings Under the Total. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-19 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 126 |
Top |
55-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). THE SITUATION: Oregon (18-12) has won three straight games with their 72-61 win at Washington State last Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. Washington (24-6) has won their last two games after they defeated Oregon State on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Oregon has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after winning their last two games. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring only 64.0 PPG on low 40.9% shooting. But the Ducks hold their home hosts to just a 42.9% shooting mark from the field. Head coach Dana Altman’s team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12 — and they have held their last vet opponents to just 41.6% shooting. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Oregon has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Huskies have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They shot 54% from the field against the Beavers which was the best shooting margin in their last ten games. Washington is only making 44.9% of their shots over their last five games despite that strong shooting effort on Wednesday. The Huskies stay at home where hold their guests to just 59.7 PPG on low 38.8% shooting from the field. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Huskies have the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12.
FINAL TAKE: Washington won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 24th when they pulled off a 61-56 upset win in Eugene as a 2.5-point underdog. That game finished below the 132 point Total which made it 6 straight Unders between these two teams. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-19 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 236 |
Top |
105-122 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (565) and the Golden State Warriors (566). THE SITUATION: Denver (43-21) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 115-99 win in Los Angeles over the Lakers as a 5-point favorite. Golden State (44-20) looks to bounce-back from their 128-95 loss to Boston on Tuesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 45.9% of their shots against the Lakers which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. Denver has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Denver stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Nuggets have launched at least 92 shots in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. Moving forward, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Nuggets have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 230s. Golden State saw the Celtics make 51% of their shots (along with 41.2% of their 3-pointers) which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 29 games. The Warriors should use that disappointing effort to make some adjustments on the defensive end of the court including choosing a better way for DeMarcus Cousins to position himself against opponent’s 3-point shooting. Golden State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. This is the time of the season where the Warriors start getting more serious about their defense as they have played 25 of their last 31 games Under the Total in the month of March. Additionally, Golden State has seen the Under go 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. And while Golden State shoots 48.8% from the field, Denver has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams that are making at least 46% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets should be focused on playing better defense against the Warriors after surrendering a whopping 142 points in their 31-point loss to them at home in the Pepsi Center back on January 15th. With this game playing a big role in which of these two teams will finish as the top seed in the Western Conference — and with the home court advantage in the playoffs that this position earns — expect this to be a hard fought game on the defensive end of the court. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (565) and the Golden State Warriors (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-19 |
Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 134 |
Top |
72-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (18-12) has lost two straight upset losses in a row after their 83-76 loss at Florida International as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (17-12) has won three of their last four games after their 60-54 upset win at North Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-10-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total off a road loss to a conference rival. Louisiana Tech has the third-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in Conference USA — but they also have just the 9th best offense in terms of that metric. They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% shooting percentage. Now they go on the road where they are scoring only 69.0 PPG while making just 41.6% of their shots from the field. The Under is a decisive 20-5-1 in their last 26 games on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Florida Atlantic has seen the Under go 21-9-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Owls have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset victory. This will be FAU’s second game in their last eight days — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing just for the second time in eight days. The Owls sport the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Conference USA. They have held their last five opponents to just a 36.6% shooting percentage. But FAU struggles to score baskets as they rank 12th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. The Owls return home where they hold their opponents to only 63.7 PPG on low 40.4% shooting. Yet FAU only makes 42.3% of their shots at home. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and the Under is also 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Owls have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is looking to avenge a 69-61 loss hosting FAU back on January 31st when they were 4.5-point home favorites in that game. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and this includes them playing nine of these last eleven situations Under the Total. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-19 |
Kentucky v. Ole Miss UNDER 139 |
Top |
80-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a 71-52 loss at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog. Mississippi (19-10) has lost their last two games after their 74-73 loss at Arkansas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kentucky has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Kentucky is without their floor general in senior Reid Travis who is dealing with a knee injury. The Wildcats made only 31.8% of their shots against the Volunteers without Travis running the offense. Head coach John Calipari will want his team to play better on defense tonight. While the 43.8% field goal percentage that the Volunteers achieved was not a bad effort, it was still the worst defensive performance for the Wildcats in their last twelve contests. Kentucky has held their last five opponents to just a 38.5% field goal percentage. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Kentucky has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Ole Miss has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels made 53.7% of their shots in that narrow loss to the Razorbacks which was the best shooting mark for them in their last nineteen games. Ole Miss is only making 43.9% of their shots over their last five contests. They have also played four straight games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Rebels have played 8 of their last home games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: With Kentucky without Travis, expect this to be a lower-scoring contest. 25* CBB Super Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-19 |
Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL UNDER 136 |
Top |
63-76 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (12-17) has lost twelve games in a row with their 73-49 loss at Virginia on Saturday as an 18-point underdog. Miami (FL) (12-16) has lost their last two games after their 87-57 loss at Duke as a 15-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Pittsburgh has also played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 55 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to reach at least 50 points in their last contest. The Panthers are making only 34.2% of their shots over their last five games — and they are 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. More importantly, when playing on the road, head coach Jeff Capel needs to his team to play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Cavaliers to make 58.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. Pitt has played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Panthers score only 65.5 PPG away from home while making only 38.9% of their shots. Furthermore, the Panthers have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight losses to conference opponents. Miami also comes off a disappointing defensive effort as they allowed the Blue Devils to make 57.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Hurricanes have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. This has been a disappointing season for head coach Jim Larranaga with injuries and the declaration of their best player, Dewan Hernandez, being declared ineligible after accepting payments from an agent. Hernandez never took the court this season and has already declared that he will make himself eligible for the NBA draft in June. Without him anchoring the offense, this team cannot score. Miami is 10th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 38.0% of their shots over their last five games. The Hurricanes return home where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight encounters Under the Total. With both these programs struggling to score baskets this season while coming off disappointing efforts on defense, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-19 |
Wolves v. Wizards OVER 238 |
Top |
121-135 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (585) and the Washington Wizards (586). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (29-33) has lost two straight games with their 122-115 loss at Indiana as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington (25-37) has lost five of their last six games with their 107-96 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Minnesota is shooting 47.2% from the field over their last five games which has translated into 118.6 PPG — but they are also allowing 120.4 PPG over these last five games as well. The T-Wolves have played a decisive 33 of their last 49 games Over the Total with the Total set at least at 220. Now Minnesota goes back on the road where they have played of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They are 9-23 overall on the road where they are allowing 115.1 PPG — but they are scoring 111.1 PPG away from home. Defending the arc has been a problem for the T-Wolves when playing on the road as their home hosts are shooting 38.9% from behind the arc. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. The Over is a decisive 43-21-1 in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. The Over is also 45-20-1 in the Wizards’ last 66 games after a point spread loss. Washington is playing at a blistering pace as of late — they are averaging 105.0 possessions per 48 minutes over their last ten games which is the third fastest pace in the league. Over their last five games, the Wizards are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 118.8 PPG allowed. Washington returns home where they are 16-12 while making 48.5% of their shots this season which has resulted in 117.6 PPG. But the Wizards are also allowing their visitors to 114.5 PPG. Washington has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wizards have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set at least at 220.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing with Washington. While the Over/Under is set in the high-230s to low-240s, expect this game to topple that number between two teams that play at a fast pace while privileging offense over defense. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (585) and the Washington Wizards (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-01-19 |
Siena v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
62-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Siena (15-14) has won two straight games with their 67-55 win over Marist last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Canisius (13-16) has lost two straight contests after their 86-84 loss to Niagara as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have seen the Under go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a win over a Metro Athletic Association team. Siena has also played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Saints has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Additionally, while Siena has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two contests. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Saints goes back on the road for the first time since February 10th. The Under is 5-1-1 in Siena’s last 7 road games after playing at least their last three games at home. They are making just 42.7% of their shots when playing away from home — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. The Saints have also played 4 straight games against teams with a losing record on their home court — and the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Siena has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the MAAC — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage. The Saints have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Canisius has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. The Golden Griffins have seen the Under go 15-7-1 in their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 17-8-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Canisius has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Now after losing three of their last four games, the Golden Griffins have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Canisius made 52.5% of their shots against the Purple Eagles on Wednesday after making 51.7% of their shots at Iona in their previous game after shooting a miserable 29.8% from the field three games ago at Monmouth. The Golden Griffins have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena is looking to avenge a 70-66 loss to Canisius back on January 5th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-19 |
Michigan State v. Michigan UNDER 134 |
Top |
77-70 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
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At 3:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (22-5) has won four straight games with their 71-60 win over Rutgers on Wednesday as a 15.5-point favorite. Michigan (24-3) has won four of their last five games with their 69-60 win at Minnesota on Thursday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go 22-6-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 9 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games against fellow Big Ten opponents. This is a team hit hard by two big injuries. Joshua Langford is out the season with an ankle injury while Nick Ward is out indefinitely with a hand injury. That leaves much of the offensive burden on guard Cassius Winston — and he was absolutely owned last year by the Wolverines’ elite defender Xavier Simpson. In their two upset losses to Michigan last season, Winston made only 6 of his 17 shots from the floor while going 1 for 6 from behind the arc while averaging just 11.0 PPG with 3.5 assists. Scoring is going to be hard to come by for Sparty in this game as they are making only 44.8% of their shots over their last five games dealing with these injuries — they will have to rely on their strong defensive play to stay competitive in this game. Michigan State goes on the road where they do hold their home hosts to just a 38.8% field goal percentage. The Spartans have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Michigan State’s last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Under is also 18-7-1 in Michigan’s last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Wolverines have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This is Michigan’s just second game since last Saturday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. The Wolverines return home where they are 16-0 this season while holding their visitors to just a 39.7% field goal percentage. Michigan has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This Wolverines team can suffer through cold stretches on offense. While Simpson is one of the best defensive players in the nation, he is not a threat from his outside shooting which allows opposing defenses to play off him and help on other players. John Beilein offenses emphasize 3-point shooting but they are making only 33.2% of their 3-pointers in Big Ten play (7th in the conference).
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play outstanding defense: the Spartans rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while the Wolverines rank 2nd in the nation in that metric. These teams do not like each other — and this is a very heated rivalry after Michigan upset them twice last season. This will slow and physical with the first team to reach 60 points the likely winner. 25* CBB Sunday CBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-19 |
Nets v. Hornets OVER 227 |
Top |
117-115 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (537) and the Charlotte Hornets (538). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (30-30) has lost three of their last four games with their 113-99 loss to Portland on Thursday as a 3-point underdog. Charlotte (28-30) returned from the All-Star break last night with a 123-110 win over Washington as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nets have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. That game also finished far below the 231.5 point total — and Brooklyn has then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Nets made only 39.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Brooklyn should see an uptick in their offensive productivity with Caris LeVert back in the mix — this will be his fifth game since returning to the court after suffering that gruesome leg injury. The Trail Blazers were also dealing with rust in their shooting as they shot just 43.8% from the field which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Nets’ last five contests. Brooklyn has still allowed their last five opponents to shoot 49.1% from the field. The Nets now go on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have also played 22 of their last 29 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Hornets allow 111.3 PPG, Brooklyn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow at least 106 PPG. Charlotte’s five starters logged in 166:56 combined minutes last night — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing the previous day where their five starters combined to play at least 160 minutes. Head coach James Borrego made an intriguing change in the lineup last night by moving Jeremy Lamb to the second unit to make room for their first-round draft pick Miles Bridges at forward with Nicolas Batum shifting to the shooting guard spot. The early results were very encouraging with Batum scoring 20 points and Bridges adding another 14 points. Lamb will be asked for instant offense leading the second unit alongside their veteran point guard Tony Parker — Lamb pitched in another 16 points last night off the bench. Overall, they shot a solid 47.9% from the field as a team while holding a cold shooting Wizards team to just a 43.3% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games and far below their opponent’s field goal percentage of 47.9% for the season. The Hornets stay at home where they have played 18 of their last 23 home games Over the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. Additionally, Charlotte has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. The Hornets have also played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. This team plays at a blistering pace which has helped them launch at least 90 shots in three straight games with them attempting 94 and 96 shots in their last two contests. Charlotte has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. The Nets play at a fast pace as well which translates into 90 shot attempts per game — and the Hornets have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents that laugh at least 88 shots per game. Brooklyn allows their opponents to score 112.7 PPG — and Charlotte has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 110 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn has averaged 104.8 possessions per 48 minutes over their last ten games which leads the NBA over that span. With the Hornets happy to engage in that up-tempo style, expect a high scoring game between these two teams that tend to struggle on the defensive end of the court. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (537) and the Charlotte Hornets (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-19 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
86-91 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (14-11) has won three of their last four games with their 63-60 win at Texas State on Thursday as a 5-point favorite. UT-Arlington (12-15) has lost three straight games after suffering their second straight upset loss on Thursday when they lost at home to UL-Lafayette by a 76-64 score as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mavericks on Thursday in a situation I really liked — so that result was a big disappointment. But in researching that game, it afforded me the opportunity to dig deep into what Chris Ogden is doing with this UT-Arlington program in his first year as their head coach. Ogden inherited only 15% of the minutes from UT-Arlington’s senior-laden team the year before. After working as an assistant for Chris Beard at Texas Tech and Rick Barnes both at Texas and Tennessee, it is clear that Ogden knows how to teach defense. The Mavericks lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. After allowing Arkansas State to shoot 51.9% from the field, I expected a much better defensive effort — and I was correct on that front as UT-Arlington held the Ragin’ Cajuns to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. The problem was that the Mavericks made only 42.9% of their shots against a Red Wolves team that does not play good defense. Unfortunately for Ogden, that field goal percentage was still their best shooting mark in their last three contests. This is simply not a good shooting team — they are last in the Sun Belt in both effective field goal percentage and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. What UT-Arlington does best on offense is crash the boards as they rank 3rd in the conference by pulling down 32.1% of their missed shots. I thought this is where they would dominate Louisiana (and they did pull down 10 offensive boards representing a 30.3% rate). But getting second-chance scoring opportunities will be much harder this afternoon against this War Hawks team that leads the Sun Belt by holding their opponents to just a 25.0% offensive rebound rate. The Mavericks will have to lean on their defense — they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting mark. UT-Arlington has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while their loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns finished below the 150.5 point total, the Mavericks have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. UT-Arlington stays at home where they are 7-5 this season but where they are making only 40.7% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less against conference rivals. The Warhawks have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. UL-Monroe made 49.1% of their shots in that game — and they have made at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight games. But the Warhawks have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after shooting at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight contests. Head coach Keith Richard emphasizes 3-point shooting — his team is second in the Sun Belt by collecting 37.9% of their points from 3-pointers. But Ogden has been very good teaching his team to defend the arc and force opposing shooters to take low percentage jump shots inside the arc. Only 30.9% of their opponent’s points are coming from made 3-pointers which is the third-best mark in the conference — and UT-Arlington then leads the conference by holding their opponents to just a 46.2% field goal percentage inside the arc. UL-Monroe stays on the road where they are 3-10 while making only 42.7% of their shots. The Warhawks have played 39 of their last 55 road games Under the Total — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total in Sun Belt play. And in their last 38 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 28 times — and this includes ten Unders in these last thirteen situations.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a defensive battle between two teams that struggle to make shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-20-19 |
North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 |
Top |
88-72 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (20-5) has won eight of their last nine games after their 95-57 win at Wake Forest as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (23-2) has won nine games in a row with their 94-78 win over North Carolina State as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is certainly tempting to expect a high-scoring game between these two offensive juggernauts that play at the 3rd and 11th fastest paces in the nation. However, the Over tends to be overvalued in situations like this by the betting public. While my handicapping is very much informed by empirical situational angles, I rarely include them in my (already too long) Reports. I will share two historical angles that speak loudly to tonight’s situation with the Total set in the mid-160s. North Carolina and Duke are two elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by +12.2 PPG and +20.3 PPG — yet when teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG in the second half of the season with the Total set in the 160s, the game has then finished Under the Total in 72 of the last 106 (68%) situations where these conditions applied. This simple angle exposes two truths: (1) elite teams also tend to play very good defense and (2) the pressure inherent in heavyweight matchups tends to negatively impact shooting. Furthermore, great teams tend to rebound the ball well which leads to extending offensive possessions (with a new shot clock) and short-circuited the opponent’s offensive possessions (who often rely on second-chance points for their effectiveness). The Tar Heels and the Blue Devils out-rebound their opponents by +9.4 RPG and +7.2 RPG — and after 15 games into the season in contests between two teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +6.0 RPG with the Total set in the 160s, the game finished Under the Total in 26 of these last 34 (77%) situations. Both these teams play outstanding defense: North Carolina is 20th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Duke ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Tar Heels have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Both these teams have significant flaws on offense that their opponent will attempt to expose tonight. Bettors may still remember Duke’s torrid 3-point shooting in their high-profile showdown with Virginia two Saturdays ago where they nailed 13 of 21 (62%) of their shots from behind the arc. But the Regression Gods have since visited the Blue Devils as they have since made only 10 of their 44 (22.7%) of their 3-point attempts in their next two games. Duke is 305th in the nation with a 31.3% mark from behind the arc — and that number drops even further to a 30.5% clip in ACC play. My concerns for North Carolina on offense are qualitative when facing outstanding opponents. Roy Williams wants to play two traditional big men still — yet his best five on the court probably requires him to use a smaller (and more explosive) lineup with Luke Maye playing at the 5. I also don’t like the matchup Coby White faces tonight against the Blue Devils’ Tre Jones who is an absolute menace on defense. White has tended to disappear this season with games — and that stalls the Tar Heels offense: White scored 12 points in a loss to Michigan where his team put up 67 points; he scored 4 points in a loss to Louisville where UNC scored 62 points; he scored 8 points in a loss to Kentucky where UNC scored 72 points. The Tar Heels usually score 87.5 PPG but those three results represent three of their four lowest point outputs this season (with their most recent loss to Virginia who plays at a crawl being the fourth sample). Additionally, North Carolina may be due for a visit from the Regression Gods after they shot a season-high 62.3% in their win over the Demon Deacons. They made 16 of 25 (64%) of their 3-pointers in that win — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Tar Heels 3-point shooting by a Duke team that is 14th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage of 29.7% that lowers to a 27.3% mark when at home. Speaking of regression, the Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Finally, North Carolina has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 160s while Duke has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the number in the 160 to 169.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Team trends can be very helpful in identifying how teams typically respond to situations like this — and this particularly true in college basketball when dealing with established coaches like Williams and Mike Krzyzewski who deploy consistent styles of play from year-to-year. The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams with the Under also 3-0-1 in the last 4 encounters at Cameron Indoor. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-19 |
Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State OVER 145 |
Top |
73-85 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (10-17) has won two straight games with their 86-72 upset win at South Dakota as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. North Dakota State (13-12) has won four straight games with their 81-71 win over Denver on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles have played 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 22 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Oral Roberts has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 31 of their last 40 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game which includes thirteen of those last fifteen situations going Over the Total. This Oral Roberts team may have found their shooting stroke as they made 56.1% of their shots against South Dakota after making 51.1% of their shots against Denver in their previous game. The Golden Eagles have also 14 of 15 and 17 of 20 from the free throw line in their last two contests — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 78% from the charity stripe in at least two straight games. Now Oral Roberts stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Golden Eagles have also played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. North Dakota State has played 24 of their last 32 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Bison has played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and this includes them playing eight of these last nine situations going Over the Total. And while North Dakota State has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. The Bison stay at home where they are scoring 79.6 PPG while making 49.3% of their shots. North Dakota State has played 22 of their last 29 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bison have played 14 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts is looking to avenge a 67-57 loss to North Dakota State loss to the Bison back on January 26th — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge. In the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Fargo, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-19 |
Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 137.5 |
Top |
61-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (16-8) has lost three straight games with their 79-55 loss at Michigan State last Saturday as a 13.5-point underdog. Nebraska (13-11) has lost seven in a row with their 81-62 loss at Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Gophers should play better on defense after allowing the Spartans to make 51.7% of their shots from the field. That was the second-worst opponent’s field goal percentage that they have allowed in their last seven games. Minnesota has been consistently inconsistent this season — so a good effort looks likely for this veteran team that plays tough and physical when at their best. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Golden Gophers stay on the road where they are 4-6 this season. They struggle to score points when away from home as they average just 63.4 PPG on the road while making just 38.9% of their shots. The Under is 9-1-1 in Minnesota’s last 11 games on the road — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Nebraska has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Cornhuskers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Nebraska should play much better on defense tonight after allowing the Boilermakers to make 50.9% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. Tim Miles’ team usually plays strong on defense as they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. Miles will want his team to work harder on the boards after being out-rebounded by a 39 to 24 margin. The Cornhuskers have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards. The problem for this team during their losing streak has been their inability to hit a side of a barn on offense. They are making just 32% of their shots over their last five games which translated into just 56.4 PPG. While the Regression Gods may decide to let all their bank shots from behind the arc rattle into the basket — I do not think that happens tonight with Isaac Copeland, Jr. out with a knee injury. The forward is the team’s second-leading scorer with a 14.0 PPG average. Nebraska returns home where they are 9-4 this season but making only 42.7% of their shots. The Cornhuskers' recipe for success at home is on defense where they hold their opponents to only 56.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just a 35.7% field goal percentage. Nebraska has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Cornhuskers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This will be a rematch of the meeting between these two teams back on December 5th where the Golden Gophers won in Minnesota by an 85-78 score. Nebraska has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-19 |
Ohio v. Miami-OH UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
59-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (631) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (632). THE SITUATION: Ohio (11-10) has lost two straight games after their 65-53 loss to Akron last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Miami (OH) (12-11) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-67 loss at Kent State as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. And while Ohio has only covered the point spread twice in their last twelve games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This team is last in the Mid-American Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and now they go on the road where they are scoring only 59.8 PPG with a low 38.4% field goal percentage. The Bobcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Ohio has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow MAC opponents. Miami (OH) has seen the Under go 28-11-1 in their last 40 games against conference opponents. The Redhawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 21-8-1 in their last 30 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Miami has played 7 straight games at home Under the Total after a loss. This is a team that sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they are last in the MAC by pulling down only 24.6% of their missed shots. Over their last five games, the Redhawks are allowing only 60.4 PPG while holding their opponents to just a 39.6% field goal percentage. But during that span, Miami is scoring only 65.4 PPG themselves on 41.5% shooting (and few second-chance opportunities). Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Redhawks return home where they hold their opponents to just 63.8 PPG on 41.3% shooting from the field. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings at Miami. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (631) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-19 |
Spurs v. Blazers OVER 225.5 |
Top |
118-127 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (583) and the Portland Trail Blazers (584). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (32-24) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last night with their ugly 141-102 loss at Golden State as a 15.5-point underdog. Portland (32-21) had their three-game winning streak end on Tuesday with their 118-108 upset loss to Miami as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spurs rested LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan in that game which contributed to them making only 43.2% of their shots against the Warriors. Both players will be back on the court tonight in this more winnable game than against the defending NBA champions. San Antonio has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing without rest. The Spurs have also seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Toal after a double-digit setback. Furthermore, the Over is 10-0-1 in San Antonio’s last 11 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. The Spurs will likely be without starting point guard Derrick White who is dealing with a right foot injury. San Antonio will miss his versatile play on defense. The Spurs have allowed three of their last five opponents to make at least 55.6% of their shots after the Warriors nailed 57.9% of their field goal attempts. Overall, San Antonio has allowed their last five opponents to make 52.9% of their shots from the field. The Spurs stay on the road where they are scoring 110.9 PPG but surrendering 115.1 PPG. Home hosts are making 48.3% of their shots against San Antonio. The Over is 24-9-2 in their last 35 road games — and the Spurs have seen the Over go 21-5-1 in their 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Portland has played 21 of their last 29 games over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Trail Blazers made only 45.2% of their shots against the Heat which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Portland stays at home where they are making 47.6% of their shots which translates into 115.9 PPG. Over tier last five games, the Blazers are still making 48% of their shots — but they are also allowing these opponents to shoot 47.1% from the field which is a bit worse than their 45.7% opponent’s field goal percentage for the year. The Over is 6-0-1 in Portland’s last 7 games on their home court — and the Over is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, while the Blazers have scored at least 105 points in nineteen straight games, they have then played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in at least five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Portland will be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 131-118 loss to the Spurs back on December 2nd where they made 52.3% of their shots while allowing San Antonio to shoot 60.2% from the field. These two teams have played 22 of their last 30 meetings Over the Total — and this includes them playing twelve of their last sixteen games Over the Total when playing in Portland. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (583) and the Portland Trail Blazers (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-19 |
California v. Oregon UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
62-73 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (831) and the Oregon Ducks (832). THE SITUATION: California (5-16) has lost ten straight games after their 84-81 loss at home to Stanford last Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oregon (13-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 73-51 upset loss at Colorado as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a loss to a fellow Pac-12 rival. Cal has also played 10 straight road games Under the Total after losing at least two games in a row. Cal lost seven contributors from last year’s 8-24 team — and they have continued to struggle this season as they are last in the Pac-12 in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and with their effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. They have allowed their last three opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Golden Bears go back on the road where they are 0-9 this season while making just 42.9% of their shots which is resulting in only 67.6 PPG. Cal has played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Ducks have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Oregon returns home where they are 9-4 this season while holding their opponents to just 64.8 PPG on a low 42.0% field goal percentage. The Ducks have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Oregon has also played 24 of their last 33 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival. The Ducks have been hit hard with injuries this season with the biggest being to Bol Bol who is out the year with a left foot injury. While Dana Altman’s team is back to full strength — save for Bol — the offensive chemistry of this team has been disrupted. Oregon ranks 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But the Ducks have been solid on defense as they rank 5th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 12.5 to 18 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams play at the two slowest paces in the Pac-12 — Cal’s 18.2 seconds per possession in conference action is only quicker than Oregon’s 19.0 seconds per possession. The Ducks do force pressure to create scoring opportunities — they are second in the Pac-12 by forcing turnovers in 24.4% of their conference opponents possessions. But protecting the basketball may be what this Bears team does best as they are second in the conference by only turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions in conference play. Expect a slog. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (831) and the Oregon Ducks (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-19 |
Hornets v. Mavs UNDER 216 |
Top |
93-99 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (565) and the Dallas Mavericks (566). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (26-26) has won three of their last four games with their 125-118 win over Chicago on Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. Dallas (24-28) has won four of their last six games with their 111-98 upset win at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing very good defense right now as they have held their last five opponents to just a 41% field goal percentage which has resulted in only 101.1 PPG which is more than 7 points below their 108.7 PPG defensive scoring average. Dallas made a blockbuster trade this week by trading Dennis Smith, Jr. along with Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan to the Knicks for Kristaps Porzingis along with Tim Hardaway and Trey Burke. Losing Jordan along with Matthews will impact the Mavericks’ defensive presence — but integrating Hardaway and Burke into their offensive rotation will take some time. Of course, it has been announced that Porzingis will not take the court this season as he looks to fully recover from his ACL injury from last year. Dallas returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference — and they have played 36 of their last 59 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Charlotte has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Hornets made 52.4% of their shots in their win over the Bulls on Saturday which was the best offensive effort in their last five games. But this remains a team that is scoring 107.0 PPG over their last five games which is more than 4 points below their 111.6 PPG season average. Charlotte is also making only 43.8% of their shots when playing on the road. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Hornets’ last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte will be looking to avenge an embarrassing 122-84 loss at home to Dallas back on January 2nd — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. While the Mavericks are probably not as strong as a defensive team after their trade with the Knicks, I do expect them to struggle on offense as they incorporate Hardaway and Burke into the mix. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (565) and the Dallas Mavericks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-19 |
Drake v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 130 |
Top |
64-86 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (615) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (616). THE SITUATION: Drake (17-6) has won five of their last six games with their 68-62 upset victory at Indiana State on Saturday as a 1-point underdog. Loyola-Chicago (14-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 65-57 loss to Illinois State as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Drake has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they are holding their hosts to just a 41.7% field goal percentage. Drake has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Missouri Valley Conference — and they have played 6 of their last 7 conference games Under the Total. But the Bulldogs make only 44.7% of their shots away from home as compared to their 47.5% field goal mark for the season. Drake has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. This team has seen their scoring output derailed with the season-ending ACL injury to Nick Norton. The senior guard was the second-leading scorer on the team with a 14.0 PPG scoring average — and by taking 22.2% of the team’s shots for the season, he was taking the second most percentage of shots on the team. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Loyola-Chicago has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Ramblers have played two straight games where neither team scored more than 65 points. Not only has Loyola-Chicago played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points but they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored at least 65 points. The Ramblers return home where they are 10-3 this season while holding their visitors to just 57.9 PPG on low 40.7% shooting from the field. Loyola-Chicago has played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Ramblers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Drake will be looking to avenge an 85-74 loss to Loyola-Chicago back on January 5th. The Bulldogs have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when on the road playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams on the Ramblers’ home court. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (615) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-19 |
Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 131 |
Top |
61-69 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (869) and the Wisconsin Badgers (870). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 70-52 win over Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (15-6) has won four straight games after their 62-51 upset win at Nebraska as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins played a great game on defense against the Wildcats as they held them to just a 31% field goal percentage. Maryland has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while that game finished below the 132.5 point total, the Terrapins have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished below the number. Maryland’s defense has traveled this season — they are holding their home hosts to just 62.2 PPG on low 39.6% shooting. The Terrapins have held their last five opponents to just a 39.4% field goal percentage as head coach Mark Turgeon continues to see improvement from his team on that end of the court. But while Maryland is loaded with talent, their offense can stall out. Turgeon decided early on to move his best player, Anthony Cowan, off the ball to put him in better positions to score while lowering his work rate as he did with Melo Trimble’s final year with the program. But while it was Cowan who glided into the point guard position then, freshman Eric Ayala is struggling with this transition this season. The Terrapins starting point guard has a higher turnover rate than assist rate and he is one of the reasons that this team ranks 13th in the Big Ten by turning the ball over in 21.0% of their possessions. Maryland scored 78.7 PPG when playing at home — but that number drops to just 68.6 PPG when they are playing on the road. Over their last five games, the Terrapins are making just 42.8% of their shots. The Terrapins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Big Ten opponents — and they have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Wisconsin has played 26 of their last 31 games Under the Total after an upset victory over a Big Ten rival. The Badgers play outstanding defense — they rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 12th in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.8%. Wisconsin has held their last five opponents to just 33.6% shooting from the field — and Big Ten opponents are making only 37.8% of their shots against them. Furthermore, the Badgers are holding their visitors to just 61.7 PPG on low 40.4% shooting — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. One of the reasons why the Badgers are so tough to score on is that their games are almost entirely consisting of slogs in the half-court. Wisconsin is 9th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.9% of their possessions. But the Badgers’ half-court offense has slowed down as opponents have made the decision to key on D’Mitrik Trice. While the 6’0 guard is averaging 13.9 PPG, he is scoring 12.2 PPG over his last five games which includes only 8 points against the Cornhuskers and only 6 points against Michigan. Senior Ethan Happ gets most of the headlines for this team — but he is not a good natural shooter given his 47% free throw percentage along with zero made 3-pointers this season. Wisconsin is making just 43.8% of their shots over their last five games. Head coach Greg Gard does have an assortment of players who can make 3-pointers — they rank 3rd in the Big Ten by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Terrapins defend the perimeter well — they rank 4th in the Big Ten with an opponent’s 3-point mark of just 31.1% and home teams are making only 29.1% of their 3-pointers against them when they are playing on the road. The Under is a decisive 38-18-4 in Wisconsin’s last 60 games against Big Ten opponents — and the Badgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. With two head coaches that preach defense facing offenses that have significant holes, expect a lower scoring game once again between these two teams. 25* CBB Friday FS1 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (869) and the Wisconsin Badgers (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-19 |
Cal-Irvine v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 133 |
Top |
66-62 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (647) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (648). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (17-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 82-64 win over UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (15-4) has won seven of their last eight games with their 82-71 win at Long Beach State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UC-Irvine has played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Anteaters made 52.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the best offensive effort in their last six games. But now UC-Irvine goes back on the road where they are making just 41.6% of their shots. The Anteaters’ defense should travel — they lead in the Big West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also leading the conference with an opponent’s effective goal percentage of 46.1%. UC-Irvine holds their home hosts to just a 38.3% field goal percentage. The Anteaters have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Additionally, UC-Irvine has played 12 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total against fellow Big West opponents. UC-Santa Barbara has played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and this includes them playing eight of their last nine home games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Gauchos return home where they are a perfect 9-0 while holding their visitors to just 56.3 PPG on low 36.4% shooting. The Under is a decisive 34-15-2 in UC-Santa Barbara’s last 51 games on their home court — and they have also seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Gauchos can struggle to score points — they are 8th in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Over their last five games, UC-Santa Barbara is making only 42.8% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams typically play lower scoring games. The Under is 19-7-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams — and this includes them playing four straight Unders when facing off in Santa Barbara. Expect another lower-scoring game between these two teams. 25* College Basketball Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (647) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-19 |
Nuggets v. Pelicans OVER 224.5 |
Top |
105-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (34-15) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 95-92 win at Memphis as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (23-28) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their surprising 121-116 upset win at Houston as a big 13.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after an upset win by at least 10 points — and this includes them playing three of their four games Over the Total when that double-digit upset win was over a Southwest Divisional rival. New Orleans has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. This team is a M*A*S*H unit right now with Anthony Davis out (and perhaps never to wear a Pelicans’ jersey again given his declaration that he will not resign with the team when his contract expires and Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, E’Twaun Moore all dealing with injuries. The latter three are listed as questionable for tonight as of this writing. This leaves the team with only Jrue Holiday as the only regular starter available for the Pelicans — but he starred alongside Jahil Okafor and a slew of bench players last night. This group buys-in to head coach Alvin Gentry’s aggressive defensive schemes and fast-tempo. The Pelicans made 51.1% of their shots against the Rockets last night — and their 48.9% field goal percentage in their last five games since Davis suffered his injury is higher than the 48.1% mark they have overall for the season. I am not sure how well New Orleans will play on defense tonight — but they should continue to score plenty of baskets back at home where they are averaging 118.4 PPG on 48.4% shooting. The Pelicans have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a dog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents. Where the Pelicans really miss Davis is with their interior defense. Through his injury on January 19th, opponents were taking 39.5% of their shots at the rim when Davis was not on the court — that would translate into the second-highest mark if extended to the entire season. The lack of credible rim protector without Davis requires the Pelicans to help on defense — and that opens things up for these opponents on the perimeter again. Opponents were making 46.7% of their corner 3s against New Orleans with Davis off the court before his injury. While Houston lacks a credible inside scoring threat (especially with Clint Capela injured), the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic should have a field day against the Pelicans inside tonight. Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after both a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Nuggets were sluggish for most of that game with the Grizzlies as they made only 43.5% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last eight games. Denver rallied from a 25-point third quarter deficit as well as a 17-point margin in the fourth quarter to pull out that win. They should shoot much better tonight — they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the month of January. The Nuggets have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans averages 103.2 possessions per game which is the 5th quickest pace in the NBA. Their injuries require them to play small-ball — and that should facilitate both teams flying up and down the court like the Pelicans’ game with the Rockets last night. Even in a losing effort, Houston scored 116 points while making just 39.6% of their shots. We took that Over last night — and I think we have another big advantage versus the number tonight. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-19 |
Pelicans v. Rockets OVER 233 |
Top |
121-116 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (547) and the Houston Rockets (548). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (22-28) has lost three straight games with their 126-114 loss to San Antonio on Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Houston (29-20) has won three straight games with their 103-98 win over Orlando on Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And while New Orleans has lost five of their last six games, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. This team is mired with injuries with Anthony Davis out with a hand injury and fellow big man Nikola Mirotic also out with a calf injury. With Julius Randle questionable with an ankle injury as well, this leaves head coach Alvin Gentry pretty thin with options on his frontline. Smaller lineups from Gentry will likely see the Pelicans push the pace even faster than the 103.19 possessions per game average they already average which is 6th fastest in the NBA. New Orleans goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total. The Pelicans have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 5 games against fellow Western Conference opponents, the game finished Over the Total 4 times. Houston has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Rockets have won four of their last five games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five contests. The team did see Chris Paul III return to the court on Sunday with his minutes being limited until he gets himself back into shape. The Rockets stay at home where they are averaging 116.7 PPG. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, while their win over the Magic fell well below the 221.5 point Total, they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the number. Houston held Orlando to just a 40.2% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last eighteen games. Yet the Rockets have still allowed their last five opponents to score 116.4 PPG. Houston has played 4 straight games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans will be looking to avenge a 108-104 loss at home to the Rockets back on December 29th — and they have played a decisive 40 of their last 64 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. With New Orleans’ injuries, it will be Small Ball City in this contest which should facilitate a blazing pace and a high scoring game. 25* NBA TNT Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (547) and the Houston Rockets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-19 |
Georgia v. Arkansas UNDER 153.5 |
Top |
60-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (603) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (604). THE SITUATION: Georgia (10-9) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 98-88 upset win over Texas as a 4.5-point underdog. Arkansas (11-8) has lost five of their last six games with their 67-64 loss at Texas Tech as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made a season-high 66.7% of their shots in their rout of the Longhorns. The Regression Gods are highly likely to make a visit to Fayetteville for this Georgia team that makes only 45.2% of their shots on the road. And in their six conference games this season, they are hitting just 41.4% of their shots. The Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Georgia has also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last contest. Furthermore, while Georgia has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Bulldogs go back on the road where they are scoring just 69.1 PPG. They have played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Arkansas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. And while the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Arkansas returns home where they are 8-4 while holding their opponents to just 70.7 PPG on low 40.7% shooting from the field. The Razorbacks have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the 150s for this contest given Arkansas’ fast “40 Minutes of Hell” pace. But the Razorbacks have still played six of their last eight games Under the Total — and they are hosting a Bulldogs team that is likely to see their hot shooting disappear in a hostile environment. 25* CBB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (603) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (604). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-19 |
Samford v. Wofford OVER 146.5 |
Top |
106-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Samford Bulldogs (673) and the Wofford Terriers (674). THE SITUATION: Samford (12-8) has lost four of their last five games with their 93-87 loss to Mercer as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Wofford (15-4) has won six games in a row with their 59-54 win over Furman as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Terriers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a victory. Wofford is one of the best mid-majors in the country after returning all five starters and some depth from last year’s team that finished 21-13 with a win over North Carolina. This year’s team lost to North Carolina on opening night of the season by 9 points but they later earned a win over South Carolina. This team uses four guards in their starting lineup that deploys an offense that is highly proficient in making 3s. The Terriers are 28th in the nation by making 38.2% of their 3-point shots — and that number rises to a 39.9% mark when they are playing at home. Wofford averages 88.3 PPG on their home court while making 51.4% of their shots. The Terriers have paled 37 of their last 51 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Wofford has also played 18 of their last 23 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when laying double-digits. The Terriers made only 38.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst offensive effort in their last ten games. Yet over their last five games, the Terriers have made 52.6% of their shots even after that subpar effort. Overall, Wofford ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should have a field day against this Bulldogs team that has allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots. Samford is 8th in the Southern Conference by allowing their conference opponents to make 37.9% of their 3-point shots. The Bulldogs have played a decisive 50 of their last 69 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Samford has played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival. The Bulldogs tend to play more Overs because they play at a quick pace. They average 16.3 seconds per possession which is the 67th fastest pace in the nation — and that tempo has risen in conference play to 15.9 seconds per possession. Samford has allowed their last five opponents to score at least 76 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in four straight contests. The Bulldogs go back on the road where they have played 5 stage games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Samford has also played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Wofford’s gym Over the Total. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams with the Terriers scoring plenty of points in response to Samford’s preferred quick pace. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Samford Bulldogs (673) and the Wofford Terriers (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-19 |
Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 210 |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (553) and Memphis Grizzlies (554). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (22-24) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 120-95 loss at Indiana as an 8-point underdog. Memphis (19-28) has lost six straight games as well as twelve of their last thirteen games with their ugly 105-85 upset loss at home to New Orleans on Monday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a fellow Southwest Division rival. Memphis has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points to a divisional rival. Furthermore, not only has this team played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing three straight games but they have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after dropping four straight games. Look for the Grizzlies embarrassment lead to a better effort on the defensive end of the court. The Pelicans — without an injured Anthony Davis — made 52.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for Memphis in their last seven contests. The Grizzlies have also allowed their last six opponents to score at least 105 points — but they have then played 9 straight home games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games. Led by remaining holdovers from the Grit-n-Grind days of yore in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, this team still plays good defense — they currently rank 8th in the NBA in Defensive Rating. But their play on offense has been a disaster. They made only 37.5% of their shots on Monday while scoring a mere 35 points in the second-half. Over their last nine games, the Grizzlies are last in the NBA by scoring only 97.0 PPG — and they are second-to-last over that span with a 43.6% field goal percentage. Gasol’s skills seem to be in decline. He is scoring only 13 PPG while making less than 40% of his shots since December. The team also misses Kyle Anderson’s scoring punch as he is out two to four weeks with an injury. Memphis stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Grizzlies have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 8 straight games at home Under the Total priced in that +/- 3-point range. Charlotte has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points on the road. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. This team is playing well on the defensive end of the court as of late. Over their last five games, they have held those opponents to just a 44.7% field goal percentage as compared to their 46.5% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. The Hornets have a Defensive Rating that ranks 7th in the NBA over that span which is well above their 20th rating for the season. But Charlotte struggles to score on the road where the role players to rising superstar Kemba Walker fail to offer support. The Hornets make only 43.6% of their shots on the road as compared to their 45.2% field goal percentage for the season. The Under is 3-0-1 in Charlotte’s last 4 games on the road — and the Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams come off bad losses — which should ensure a much better work rate from both teams tonight. While effort does not always translate into scoring, it should produce better defensive performances. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (553) and Memphis Grizzlies (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-19 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
86-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (621) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (622). UTSA (10-7) has won seven straight games with their 76-74 win over North Texas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Middle Tennessee (3-14) has lost three straight games after their 73-56 loss at Louisiana Tech on Saturday as a 13-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. The Road Runners have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. UTSA has held their last five opponents to just a 40.1% field goal percentage. The Road Runners lead Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in four games so far this season — and they rank 105th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall. But UTSA also ranks a low 328th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. The Road Runners make just 38.3% of their shots on the road. UTSA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. The Road Runners have also played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Middle Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Blue Raiders made only four of their ten free throws in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after shooting no better than 53% from the charity stripe in their last game. Middle Tennessee struggles to make baskets — they are 339th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.0% and the Blue Raiders are 329th in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But this team does hold their visitors to just a 39.3% opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Middle Tennessee has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 24 games as an underdog, the Blue Raiders have played 15 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams struggle to score baskets — but they are solid on the defensive end of the court (particularly with Middle Tennessee playing at home). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — expect another lower-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (621) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-19 |
Florida State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 146 |
Top |
62-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). THE SITUATION: Florida State (13-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 80-78 loss to Duke as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Pittsburgh (11-5) has also lost two of their last three contests with their 86-80 loss at NC State on Saturday as an 11-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Florida State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, the Seminoles have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the total after a loss by 3 points or less. Now this team goes on the road where they are making only 43.1% of their shots. But this Florida State team plays outstanding defense as they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles have held their last five opponents to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. Florida State has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the Seminoles’ last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Pittsburgh has played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total — and this includes them playing six straight games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Now the Panthers return home where they have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This team also plays well on the defensive end of the court. They rank 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency led by an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.2% which is 13th best in the nation. The Panthers hold their guests to just 65.1 PPG on their home court with a low 38.4% field goal percentage. Pittsburgh has also played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total in ACC play.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for Pittsburgh who are probably on the outside-looking-in right now in earning an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. Defeating Florida State would be the best win on their resume. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-19 |
Ball State v. Toledo OVER 151.5 |
Top |
79-64 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Ball State (9-4) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-57 win over Delaware State last Saturday as a 29.5-point favorite. Toledo (12-1) looks to build off their 77-45 win over Penn on Saturday as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Ball State has also played 7 straight games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. The Cardinals made 55.7% of their shots in that game which was the sixth time in their last seven games where they shot at least 50.9% from the field. Ball State has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after making at least 55% of their shots. This is a veteran team with four returning starters along with three impact transfers from last year’s team that finished 19-13. The Cardinals are 39th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while ranking 11th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%. Ball State makes 38.2% of their 3-point shots which is the 36th best mark in the nation. They go on the road where they are making 49.2% of their shots while scoring 76.0 PPG and allowing 77.0 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Cardinals have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Toledo has played 26 of their last 38 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Rockets are also an explosive offensive team that ranks 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 16th in the nation with a 3-point field goal percentage of 39.8%. Toledo stays at home where they are 7-0 this season while scoring 86.7 PPG and making 47.3% of their shots. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total as the favorite laying no more than 6 points. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Coincidentally, both these teams are coming off their best defensive performances of the season with Ball State and Toledo holding their last opponent to just 30.1% and 30.5% field goal percentages. These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between these teams that will be competing to with the Mid-American Conference championship. 25* CBB Friday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-19 |
Magic v. Bulls UNDER 199.5 |
Top |
112-84 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (513) and the Chicago Bulls (514). Orlando (16-20) has lost five of their last seven games with their 125-100 loss at Charlotte as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. Chicago (10-27) has lost two of their last three games with their 95-89 loss at Toronto as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Orlando has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss where at least 225 combined points were scored. Furthermore, the Magic have played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and this includes them playing six of their last eight games Under the Total after a loss away from home. This team is dealing with a host on injuries with the worst being at point guard where starter D.J. Augustin and backup Jonathan Simmons dealing with ankle injuries. Not all injuries disproportionally impact one end of the court but Orlando really misses Augustin’s 11.5 PPG along with a 4.9 Assists-Per-Game average along with his 43.8% shooting from behind the arc. The Magic have resorted to using Jerian Grant primary point guard but his lack of penetration skills to the paint limits their offense. Grant started in their last loss to the Hornets where Orlando shot just 41.3% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Magic may also be without center Nikola Vucevic who is questionable with a calf injury. Now Orlando goes on the road where they score 100.6 PPG with a 43.1% field goal percentage while allowing 103.1 PPG with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.1% — and all those numbers are below their 103.4 PPG/44.4% offensive and 107.5 PPG/45.9% defensive numbers for the season. The Magic have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road - — and they have played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Orlando has also played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Magic will have revenge on their minds from a 90-80 loss at Chicago back on December 21st — and they have played 30 of their last 47 games Under the Total when avenging a road loss with seven of those last ten circumstances finishing Under the Total. Chicago has seen the Under go 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. The Bulls have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Chicago is last in the NBA by scoring just 100.4 PPG. Interim head coach Jim Boylen is preaching to his players to embrace a slowed-down grinding style on offense perhaps as a contrarian philosophy to all the teams that have gone up-tempo this season. The Bulls are scoring only 97.2 PPG over their last five games — and being without their injured point guard Bobby Portis who is dealing with an ankle injury of his own does not help. But Chicago is playing better defense with this approach as they have held their last five opponents to just 95.6 PPG along with a low opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.9%. Those defensive numbers are a far cry from the 109.3 PPG and 45.3% field goal percentage they sport for the season — so perhaps Boyle is on to something for this team. The Bulls return home where they have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Under the Total. The Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in the last 46 games when Chicago was favored, they have played 30 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Chicago. With the injuries with Orlando and the new emphasis on defense with the Bulls, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (513) and the Chicago Bulls (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Northern Colorado v. Portland State OVER 155 |
Top |
73-60 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (7-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 70-65 victory at Sacramento State as a 2-point favorite. Portland State (5-6) has lost three straight games with their 76-71 loss to Cal-State Bakersfield as a 1-point favorite back on December 20th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Northern Colorado has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Over their last five games, the Bears are scoring a robust 88.6 PPG while making 51% of their shots from the field. But now this team stays on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots this season. Northern Colorado has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing on the road. Portland State has played 9 straight games Over the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after an upset loss at home. They stay at home for this contest where they are scoring 89.2 PPG while making 46.9% of their shots which is well-above their 41.9% shooting clip overall (mental note: be on the lookout to fade this team in their conference road games). If and when the Vikings miss their shots, there is a very good chance they will get a second-chance scoring opportunity since they lead the nation by pulling down 44.2% of their missed shots. Offensive rebounds should be easy to come by facing this Bears team that allows their opponents to rebound 27.4% of their missed shots which ranks 122nd in the nation. Portland State has not covered the point spread in three straight games. The Vikings have played 24 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight contests. Additionally, while Portland State has allowed their last four opponents to make at least 47.3% of their shots (as they sacrifice transition defense for crashing the offensive glass), they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing their last four opponents to make at least 47% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These are two defensively-challenged teams who rank 214th and 267 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In the wild-wild-west of the Big Sky conference, expect this game to be another higher-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 228.5 |
Top |
112-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (521) and the New Orleans Pelicans (522). THE SITUATION: Dallas (16-17) snapped a six-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 122-119 win at home over New Orleans (15-20) as a 2.5-point favorite. These two teams now travel to the Big Easy to play the back-end of this home-and-home series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. Dallas should have both Dennis Smith and rookie phenom Luka Doncic on the court tonight as they both are listed as probable despite their nagging injuries. Over their last five games, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG which is eight points higher than their season average. But Dallas is also allowing their last five opponents to score 122.2 PPG on 50.1% shooting which are both much higher than the 110.2 PPG they are allowing this season on 46.7% shooting. Now the Mavs go on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Dallas has also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total with the over/under number in that range. The Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow Southwest Division opponents. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against Southwest Division rivals. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Pelicans are scoring 120.0 PPG on 48.3% shooting when playing on their home court with both those numbers far above their 116.4 PPG scoring average an 47.6% field goal percentage overall this season. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 46 home games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 33 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road, the Pelicans have played 23 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 straight meetings Over the Total. The Over is also 19-7-1 in the last 27 encounters between these two teams in New Orleans. Even with the high total, with the fast pace that the Pelicans like to play, expect a very high-scoring game. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (521) and the New Orleans Pelicans (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Texas-Arlington v. Texas UNDER 136 |
Top |
56-76 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (4-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak last Friday with their 75-70 win at Cal-Poly SLO in a pick ‘em contest. Texas (7-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday in a 71-65 upset loss to Providence as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns allowed the Friars to make 45.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last five games. This Texas team is playing outstanding defense for head coach Shaka Smart as they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Longhorns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. This team stays at home where they are holding their opponents to just 62.2 PPG while limiting these visitors to only a 38.1% field goal percentage. Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 44 of their last 60 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Longhorns are heavy favorites in this game which is a good sign for the Under. Texas has played 7 straight games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite — and they have also played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total when laying 18.5 to 24 points. The Longhorns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. UT-Arlington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mavericks made only 39.7% of their shots in their victory last week which is concerning since they made only 26.8% of their shots in their previous game against Gonzaga. UT-Arlington ranks 303rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Mavericks do play solid defense as they rank 156th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is above average — and they will be playing a Longhorns team that ranks just 100th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UT-Arlington stays on the road where they are scoring just 59.7 PPG with a low 37.1% field goal percentage. The Mavericks have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home field. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: UT-Arlington is going to struggle to score points in this game — but this Longhorns team is not equipped to put up a bunch of points. Texas has scored more than 78 points three times this season. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-18 |
Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 221 |
Top |
109-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (559) and the Houston Rockets (560). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (21-11) saw their four-game winning streak on Sunday with a 114-112 loss at home to Minnesota despite being 6-point favorites in that game. Houston (17-15) has won six of their last seven games with their 108-101 win over San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss against a divisional rival as a home favorite. Oklahoma City allowed the Timberwolves to make 49.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Thunder have been playing outstanding defense even without their star defender Andre Roberson on the shelf with a knee injury. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in Points-Per-Possession allowed along with forced turnovers. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. Now the Thunder go back on the road where they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total — and they have played 39 of their last 55 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. OKC has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 straight games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Houston (17-15) has played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Rockets have played 32 of their last 45 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Houston has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. This team will once again be without Chris Paul for two to four weeks after he suffered a hamstring strain a few days ago. His loss is critical since he was the best complementary scoring option to James Harden this season. The Rockets stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 40-18-1 in their last 59 games when facing a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Rockets will revenge on their home from a 98-80 upset loss to the Thunder back on November 8th as a 5-point favorite. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The absence of Paul makes the Rockets easier to defend since their opponents can focus on slowing down Russell Westbrook. As it is, these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Expect that trend to continue this afternoon. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (559) and the Houston Rockets (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-18 |
Knicks v. 76ers OVER 228 |
Top |
109-131 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (554). THE SITUATION: New York (9-23) has lost two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 128-110 loss to Phoenix on Monday as a 1.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (20-12) has lost three of their last four games with their 123-96 loss in San Antonio on Monday as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. Furthermore, while the Knicks have allowed at least 110 points in eleven straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in four straight contests. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in six of their last eight games — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. This is an injured group right now with Allonzo Trier, Mitchell Robinson, and Damyean Dotson all out for this game and Tim Hardway listed as questionable with a heel injury. These absences probably hurt the Knicks defense more than it does their offense. Over their last five games, New York is scoring 109.6 PPG but they are giving up 118.8 PPG to their opponents while playing at a fast pace. Now they go on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. And while they will be looking to avenge a 117-91 loss to the Sixers back on November 28th, the Knicks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when motivated by revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. New York made only 40.4% of their shots in their last game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games — but Philadelphia comes off a game where they made just 40.8% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage they have endured all season. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Philly has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. And while they have allowed at least 105 points in seven straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in their last game. The Sixers return home where they are scoring 116.1 PPG while allowing 108.8 PPG to their opponents. Over their last five games, they are allowing their opponents to make 49.3% of their shots. This is their sixth game in ten days — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing at least their sixth game in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are likely to shoot much better from the field after poor shooting efforts in their last game. Defense will likely be hard to come by given injuries and fatigue — and that means plenty of scoring from two teams very happy to push the pace. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-18 |
Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 208 |
Top |
92-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (545) and the Indiana Pacers (546). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-23) has lost two straight games with their 128-105 loss to Philadelphia on Sunday as a 9-point underdog. Indiana (20-10) has won seven straight games with their 110-99 win over New York as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have raised their level of play on the defensive end of the court. During their seven-game winning streak, Indiana is allowing their opponents to score just 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Their last five opponents are shooting just 41.6% from the field. The Under is 35-16-1 in the Pacers’ last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. This team stays at home where they are scoring 105.2 PPG while holding their opponents to just 97.7 PPG — and both those numbers are below their 106.7 PPG scoring average along with their 101.2 PPG defensive average overall this season. Indiana has played 39 of their last 58 games Under the Total on their home court — and this includes them playing twelve of their last fifteen home games Under the Total. The Pacers have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Indiana has played ten straight games Under the Total — and while that might perk the interests of some contrarian bettors, the Pacers have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total when on an Under streak of at least four games which includes them playing eight of their last nine Under the Total if they have played at least four straight Unders before that game. Furthermore, Indiana has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 27 games against fellow NBA Central opponents. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals. They have lost two straight games by double-digits with their loss to the 76ers preceded by a 114-102 loss to Milwaukee — and the Cavaliers have plated 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games by double-digits. This team is ravaged with injuries with Tristan Thompson joining Kevin Love being on the shelf — and they are not playing their outside shooting threat in J.R. Smith so he can be kept healthy so that he retains some trade value. Head coach Larry Drew will want his team to play harder on defense after allowing the Sixers to make 56% of their shots which was the second worst defensive effort of the season. Now the Cavs go on the road where they score 100.7 PPG which is -2.7 PPG below their overall season average. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 8 of the last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers are looking to avenge a 119-107 loss at home to the Pacers back on October 27th — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the total when playing with same-season revenge. The Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 games between these two teams — and these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when meeting at Indiana. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (545) and the Indiana Pacers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-18 |
Rockets v. Jazz OVER 215 |
Top |
91-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (705) and the Utah Jazz (706). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-12) saw their two-game winning streak end on Monday with their 103-91 loss at Minnesota despite being a 2.5-point favorite in that game. Utah (12-13) has won three of their last four games with their dominant 139-105 win over San Antonio on Tuesday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jazz may have had a breakthrough on the offensive end of the court. They shot a season-high 60.7% from the field — but the encouraging aspect of that game was that all thirteen players registered at least one assist in that game. Looking for the extra pass creates better scoring opportunities — and twelve of the Utah players made at least 50% of their shots in that game with seven players scoring in double-digits. The Jazz also made 20 shots from behind the arc while making a whopping 60.6% of their 3-point shots. The Over is 8-1-1 in Utah’s last 10 games after a game where they scored at least 125 points in their last game. The Jazz have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Defense remains a concern for this team, however, as they are allowing visiting teams to make 49.6% of their shots on their home court which has translated into 112.4 PPG. Utah has played 7 straight games Over the Total on their home court. Houston has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Rockets have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Houston has a healthy Chris Paul back into the mix again but they made only 43.2% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Even with that poor performance, the Rockets are scoring a robust 117.4 PPG on 47.5% shooting with Paul back on the court over their last five games with that field goal percentage far above their 44.9% mark for the season. Houston also held the Timberwolves to just a 43.9% field goal percentage which was their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Unfortunately, that effort was likely an aberration for a team that has allowed their last nine opponents to score 116.1 PPG which has contributed to them drop to 25th in the league in Defensive Rating. Even after Monday, the Rockets have allowed their last five opponents to make 49% of their shots with this team still not finding answers on the defensive end of the court after not resigning Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: With this Total set in the high 210s, expect both teams to reach the 110 point threshold in what shapes up to be a barn burner. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (705) and the Utah Jazz (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
104-121 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (509) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (510). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (11-12) has lost two straight games with their 119-109 loss to New Orleans on Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Minnesota (12-12) has won five of their last six games with their 103-91 win over Houston on Monday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the results of the Jimmy Butler trade for the Timberwolves was an improvement of their play on the defensive end of the court. Adding Robert Covington and Dario Saric gives the team two players who are strong defenders. Over their last five games, Minnesota is holding their opponents to just 42.3% shooting which is significantly better than their 45.5% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Save for the Celtics scoring 117 points against them, the T-Wolves have held their other four opponents to no more than 95 points. Their victory over the Rockets on Monday fell well below the 223 point total — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Timberwolves have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents, Minnesota has played 6 of these games Under the Total. Charlotte has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. The Hornets have suffered two straight upset losses at home as they enter this game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two straight games Under the Total after suffering two straight losses at home as the favorite. Additionally, Charlotte has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 225 combined point were scored. They go back on the road where they are making only 42.8% of their shots which is a bit lower than their 46% field goal percentage for the season. The Hornets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends strongly indicate that both teams tend to play lower than expected scoring games in situations like this. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (509) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 144 |
Top |
77-67 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-1) enters this game coming off their 79-59 win over Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Illinois (2-6) has lost their last two games with their 75-60 loss at Nebraska as a 13-point underdog at Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Ohio State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team plays excellent defense for head coach Chris Holtmann as they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 10th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 42.2% effective field goal percentage — and opponents are shooting only 37.2% from the field against them overall. This game is being played on a neutral court in the Chicago Bulls’ United Center. The Buckeyes are scoring only 66.5 PPG with a 45.1% field goal percentage in their two games away from Columbus so far this season. Those numbers are far below their 78.4 PPG and 48.3 % shooting marks for the season. Ohio State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Illinois has seen the Under go 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. Brad Underwood’s team is launching plenty of shots — they have attempted 11 and 14 more shots than their opponents over their last two games. The Illini have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after shooting at least 10 more times than their opponent in two straight games. Illinois has played five of their games away from Champagne this season — and they are averaging only 70.8 PPG while making only 40.6% of their shots which is far below their 77.4 PPG scoring average for the season along with their 44.9% field goal percentage for the year. The Illini have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court. Illinois has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total. With this game being played in an unfamiliar environment for both teams, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-18 |
Magic v. Heat UNDER 207 |
Top |
105-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (703) and the Miami Heat (704). THE SITUATION: Orlando (11-12) snapped their two-game losing streak on Friday with their 99-85 win at Phoenix as a 4-point favorite. Miami (9-13) has won two straight games after their 102-100 upset at Utah as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat’s win was their second straight upset victory after they stunned New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Miami has then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog. The Heat have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. Furthermore, Miami has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. This is a team riddled with injuries right now. Dion Waiters and Goran Dragic are both out indefinitely and Rodney McGruder is questionable with the ankle injury he suffered in that game with the Jazz. The Heat pulled off that upset win despite making only 39.6% of their shots — and this team is still without their best offensive pieces. They stay at home where they are shooting only 43.1% from the field. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. Orlando has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Magic have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Orlando has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. And in their last 5 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on opening night this season with the Magic pulling the 104-101 upset with that final score finishing just below the 207.5 point total. Expect another Under tonight. 25* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (703) and the Miami Heat (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152.5 |
Top |
73-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). THE SITUATION: Auburn (4-1) lost in the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational last night by a 78-72 score to Duke as 11-point underdogs. Arizona (4-1) then lost in the Semifinals of this tournament to Gonzaga by a 91-74 score as an 11-point underdog as well.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 41.2% of their shots against the Bulldogs. 3-point shooting is an issue for this team as I flagged yesterday in the Report taking Gonzaga. Arizona makes only 30.4% of their 3-point shots which ranks 266th in the nation — and that is exactly what they shot last night by making only 7 of their 23 shots (30.4%) from behind the arc. While this subpar 3-point shooting has been consistent, expect the Wildcats to play better on the defensive end of the court after Gonzaga made 53.1% of their shots. That was Arizona’s worst defensive effort of this young season — but they are still holding their opponents to just a 39.9% field goal percentage for the season. The Wildcats have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Under is 3-1-1. Auburn held Duke to a 44.4% field goal percentage which was the worst defensive performance in their last three games. The Tigers rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Bruce Pearl will want his team to commit fewer personal fouls after being whistled for 24 fouls against the Blue Devils. Auburn was called for 23 personal fouls the previous day in their opening round game against Xavier — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being whistled for at least 22 fouls in two straight games. The Tigers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, the game finished Under the Total 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are playing their third game in three days — so fatigue might be a factor. Both Pearl and Sean Miller want their teams to have their defense serve as the foundation of their team play — so expect intensity on that end of the court to be a priority for both teams in this consolation game. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-18 |
Knicks v. Celtics OVER 216 |
Top |
117-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). THE SITUATION: New York (4-14) has lost six straight games after their 118-114 loss to Portland last night as a 7.5-point underdog. Boston (9-8) has lost two straight games after their 117-112 loss in Charlotte on Monday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. New York has also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. Now the Knicks go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 117.8 PPG while shooting 48.9% from the field. Over their last five games, New York is seeing their opponents make 50.1% of their shots. The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Boston has suffered two straight upset loss as their upset loss against the Hornets was preceded by a 98-86 loss at home to Utah as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Furthermore, Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after enduring two straight upset losses. Now the Celtics return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is a heavy favorite tonight being asked to lay 14 or so points. The Celtics should play well tonight — expect a high scoring game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-18 |
Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 |
Top |
117-126 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (721) and the Los Angeles Lakers (722). THE SITUATION: Portland (10-3) has won four straight games with their 100-94 win over Boston on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (7-6) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 107-106 victory over Atlanta on Sunday as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers improved play can be tied to improved play on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has not allowed their last nine opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field while holding their last five opponents to just a 43.1% field goal percentage. The Lakers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Los Angeles has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Lakers stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have also seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. LA has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents while the Trail Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. Portland is also playing hard on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.2% field goal percentage — and they are holding their home hosts to just a 42.1% shooting percentage. The Trail Blazers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Portland has also played 5 straight games Under the Total. This team has also played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against a team with a winning record — and they have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is already the third meeting between these two teams after the Lakers pulled the upset over the Trail Blazers back on November 3rd by a 114-110 score as a 3.5-point favorite that finished well below the 236 point total. This third clash probably favors the respective defenses who can continue to fine-tune their defensive approaches against a familiar opponent. As it is, these two teams have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing in LA. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (721) and the Los Angeles Lakers (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-18 |
Mavs v. Bulls UNDER 216 |
Top |
103-98 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (707) and the Chicago Bulls (708). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-8) has won of their last three games with their 111-96 win against Oklahoma City on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Chicago (4-9) has won two of their last three games as well with their 99-98 win over Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks enjoyed their best offensive performance of the season in their win over the Thunder as they shot 55.8% of their shots from the floor. Dallas also limited OKC to just a 39.2% shooting percentage — and that defensive effort should travel on the road tonight. The Mavs have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They will be a short one or two of their key contributors tonight with Wesley Matthews doubtful with a hamstring injury while rookie Luka Doncic is questionable with a knee. Dallas goes on the road where they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total with the number in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Mavericks have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Chicago is also undermanned with Bobby Portis, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen all out with injuries. But this team is still playing hard on the defensive end of the court. They limited the Cavaliers to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday — and that is exactly the same opponent’s field goal percentage that their last five opponents have averaged. The Bulls have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on October 22nd with the Mavericks winning that game in Dallas by a 115-109 score. That game fell well below the 229 point total — expect this game to also finish below the number given the injuries both teams have now experienced. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (707) and the Chicago Bulls (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-18 |
Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
108-85 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (508). THE SITUATION: Golden State (73-29) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 110-102 win in Cleveland (62-41) as a closing 3.5-point favorite. They have the opportunity to win back-to-back NBA Championships Friday night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors shot 51.9% from the field after making 57.3% of their shots in Game Two — but they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Golden State has also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning at least four straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Warriors have also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, Golden State has now played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total which includes them playing seven of their last eight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 opportunities to close-out a playoff series, the Warriors have played all 4 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. They also have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing no more than their fifth game over the last fourteen days. Furthermore, the Cavaliers had 92 shots attempts in Game Three after taking 90 shots in Game Two — and they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games and this includes playing their last four games below the number in that situation. And in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Cleveland has played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first game in this series that will be played with just one day of rest. I look for a slower-paced game than the first three games of the series with perhaps both offenses taking a step back without the extra rest. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-18 |
Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 216 |
Top |
103-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504). THE SITUATION: Golden State (71-29) won the opening game of this series with their 124-114 win in overtime on Thursday over the Cavaliers as a 12.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams had their offensive clicking in the first-half with the halftime score being a 56-56 tie. But things slowed down in the second-half — and that game only needed a flurry of baskets in the final two minutes of the game to reach 214 combined points (before overtime allowed for all Over tickets to be redeemed). Cleveland (62-29) has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Cavs have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The extended schedule should help Cleveland’s effort on defense as they Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 games when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. The Cavs have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Golden State shot 51.1% from the field which was their best shooting effort in their last five games. The Warriors have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread loss. The Under is also 19-6-1 in Golden State’s last 26 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Warriors were out-rebounded by a 53 to 38 margin — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards. Golden State has also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 40 of their last 65 home games Under the Total when laying 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Game Two to resemble the second-half on Thursday. 25* NBA Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-18 |
Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 |
Top |
114-124 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) and the Golden State Warriors (502). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (62-38) reached the NBA Finals with their 87-79 upset win in Boston on Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. Golden State (70-29) sealed their fate to make this the fourth straight meeting between these two teams in the NBA Finals with their 101-92 win in Houston on Monday as a 6-point favorite. The first two games of this series are at the Warriors’ Oracle Center.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers held the Celtics to a season-low opponent’s field goal percentage of 34.1% on Sunday — but anyone watching that game will attest that Boston’s pathetic shooting deserves most of the credit for those numbers. Cleveland has then played 12 of the last 18 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 85 points in their last game — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 35% from the field. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 31 of their last 45 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And while the last meeting between these two teams back on January 15th resulted in a 118-108 victory for the Warriors in Cleveland, the Cavs have then played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. Golden State closed out their series with the Rockets by playing five straight games Under the Total. The Warriors have then played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after playing four straight Unders. Golden State has also played a decisive 42 of their last 69 home games Over the Total when favored in the 12.5 to 18 points favorites — and this includes playing nine of their last fourteen Over the Total in that situation.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played four straight Overs to close out the NBA Finals last year with the Total ranging from 222 in Game Two to 231 in the final Game Five. While both these are not as potent offensive units as they were last year at this time, they both should play at a fast pace once again that both teams prefer. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) and the Golden State Warriors (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-18 |
Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 |
Top |
87-79 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET own Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Boston Celtics (712). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (61-38) forced a climactic seventh game of this series on Friday with their 109-99 win over the Celtics. This series returns to TD Garden in Boston (66-34) tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland was carried by LeBron James who scored 46 points on 17 of 33 shooting from the field who led his team to victory. George Hill added another 20 points on 7 of 12 shooting — but he is scoring only 5 PPG on 31% shooting when playing on the road in this series. Who will step up to help James with the scoring tonight? The Cavaliers have played 16 of their last 27 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, Cleveland has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when tied in a playoff series. Boston made 51.4% of their shots on Friday which was their best offensive effort in their last eleven games. But they should tighten up on offense in this climactic seventh game. They have played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them playing 12 of their last 15 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: With the pressure of this climactic seventh game, the unreliable Cavs supporting cast combined with this young Celtics roster will likely result in a lower scoring game. 25* NBA Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Boston Celtics (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-18 |
Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 214 |
Top |
86-115 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (509) and the Golden State Warriors (510). THE SITUATION: Houston (76-21) seized a 3-2 lead in this series on Thursday with their 98-94 upset win over the Warriors as a 1-point underdog. This series returns to the Oracle Center with Golden State (68-29) looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without Chris Paul in this contest who suffered a hamstring injury late in Thursday’s game. Paul was essential in that contest as he was his team’s best offensive player. James Harden is in a massive slump: he has missed 20 straight 3-pointers while making only 36.8% of his shots since the first game of this series. Houston will have to rely on their defense that has held the Warriors to under 100 points in two straight games with a series of sophisticated switching techniques that has frustrated this Golden State team. The Rockets have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a home underdog. Houston has also played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. And while the last three games in this series have gone Under the Total, the Rockets have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Additionally, Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Golden State has been lulled into exacerbating some of the bad habits they have picked on offense this year. They are attempting to execute isolation plays at triple the rate they were during the regular season which is not the egalitarian pass-oriented offense that Steve Kerr wants from this team. The Warriors clearly miss Andre Iguodala who remains listed as questionable for tonight’s game. The Warriors have seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Golden State returns home where they have played 13 of their last 20 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 20 games when playing with same-season revenge, the Warriors have played 13 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Houston is missing a key piece of their offense while Golden State is out-of-synch on offense. Yet both these teams with Top-Ten defenses during the regular season in terms of efficiency will lean on their defensive efforts in this contest. 25* NBA Saturday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (509) and the Golden State Warriors (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-18 |
Warriors v. Rockets OVER 224 |
Top |
94-98 |
Loss |
-109 |
65 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
05-22-18 |
Rockets v. Warriors OVER 224 |
Top |
95-92 |
Loss |
-107 |
17 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Golden State Warriors (506). THE SITUATION: Golden State (68-27) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Sunday with their dominating 126-85 victory over the Rockets. They stay at home to host Game Four.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Golden State shot 52.2% from the field while making 13 of their 32 (40.6%) of their shots from behind the arc — and they will likely keep their offense clicking on all cylinders for this game. They have played 34 of their last 41 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. They have also played an incredible 97 of their last 113 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they held Houston (74-21) to just a 39.5% field goal percentage, they have played 28 of their last 30 games(!) Over the Total after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 23 of their last 27 home games Over the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. Golden State has also played 22 of their last 28 home games when favored in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Additionally, the Warriors have played 26 of their last 35 playoff games Over the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 7 of their last 10 Game Fours in the playoffs Over the number. Houston failed to score in triple digits for the first time in these playoffs while that 39.5% field goal percentage was their lowest mark in eleven games. Even worse, their Offensive Rating of 87.9 in that game was their lowest number of the entire season. But the Rockets have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. Houston has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 29 of their last 38 games Over the Total with the number set at 220 or higher — and this includes them playing thirteen of their last eighteen games on the road with the Total set at 220 or higher. Houston has also played 19 of their last 24 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points. Lastly, in their last 5 Game Fours in the playoffs, the Rockets have played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Houston should play much better on offense in this game — especially with the Warriors’ Andre Iguodala now listed as doubtful for this game. Iguodala has been the primary defender on James Harden in this series. Golden State should continue to play well on offense at home as well which should result in the highest scoring game so far in this season. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Golden State Warriors (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-18 |
Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205.5 |
Top |
102-111 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (59-37) rebounded from losing the first two games of this series in Boston (65-32) by returning home to win Game Three decisively by a 116-86 score as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Cavaliers host Game Four.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cleveland nailed 17 of their 34 shots from behind the arc on Saturday and the evidence is quite strong that this strong play on offense will continue tonight as demonstrated by the established personality of this team. Cleveland has played a decisive 22 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Cavaliers have also played 40 of their last 47 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range — including six straight Overs. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 16 of their last 20 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying no more than 6 points. This team has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 28 Game Fours in the playoffs, the Cavs have played 20 of these games Over the Total — including eight of their last ten Game Fours. Boston has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. Furthermore, Boston has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 30 points. They made only 6 of their 22 (27.3%) shots from behind the arc en route to their 39.2% field goal percentage which was the worst offensive effort in their last nine games. The Celtics have played three straight Unders — but they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Lastly, Boston has played 23 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and this including them playing eight of their last nine games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends for both these teams strongly suggest that both will have strong offensive efforts. Cleveland will be playing with desperation down 2-1 while the Celtics can still feel loose with home court still in hand even with a loss. 25* NBA Playoff A-List O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-18 |
Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 |
Top |
94-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (701) and the Boston Celtics (702). THE SITUATION: Boston (64-31) was dominant on Sunday as they crushed the Cavaliers in the opening game of the Eastern Conference Finals by a 108-83 score as a 1-point underdog. The Celtics host Game Two.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers were dreadful on offense in this game as they made only 4 of their 26 (15.4%) of their 3-point shots while shooting just 36% from the field. That was their worst field goal percentage in their last 44 games. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, the Cavs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss that was by at least 20 points. Boston (64-31) is not likely to play as well on defense in this contest when considering that the Cavs’ 36% field goal percentage was their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 43 contests. The Celtics have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And in their last 12 games at home in TD Garden, Boston has played 10 of these games Over the Total.
CONCLUSION: This should be a close game which will drive the combined score over the number. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (701) and the Boston Celtics (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-18 |
Raptors v. Cavs OVER 214 |
Top |
93-128 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (503) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (57-35) has taken a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 105-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite over the Raptors. They host Game Four with the opportunity to close this series out.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers raced out to a 55-40 lead at halftime on Saturday before holding on for that victory. Cleveland has then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after leading at halftime by at least 15 points in their last game. The Cavaliers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Cleveland has won four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games. The Cavs have played 26 of their last 38 home games Over the Total after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. Cleveland has also played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Over the Total when playing with the possibility of closing out the series with a win. Toronto (63-28) has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less. Additionally, the Raptors have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Toronto has played has lost five games in a row to the Cavaliers going back to the regular season. The Raptors have then played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when facing an opponent that they have lost to at least four times in a row. Lastly, Toronto has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the playoffs when facing elimination.
CONCLUSION: Expect a high-scoring game with the Raptors playing like they did in the second-half where they scored 63 points with the pressure off after digging a likely insurmountable hole in this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (503) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-18 |
Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 231 |
Top |
118-92 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (705) and the New Orleans Pelicans (706). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (53-36) made this a series on Friday by crushing the Warriors by a 119-100 score as a 4.5-point underdog. They host Game Four in the Big Easy.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Golden State (64-26) should bounce-back with a much better effort after being pretty lethargic with the comfort of their 2-0 lead in this series. The Warriors shot just 38% from the field which was the worst offensive effort in their last four games — and they made just 9 of their 31 (29.0%) of their 3-point shots. Golden State has played 18 of their last 20 games Over the Total after an upset loss. The Warriors’ 26 free throws in Game Three were 14 more opportunities at the charity stripe — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total after attempting at least 10 more free throws than their opponent in their last game. Golden State has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. Moving forward, the Warriors have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when not playing more than their fifth game in fourteen days. Golden State has played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have also played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total as a road favorite laying no more than 6 points. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 30 of their last 38 games Over the Total with the number at the lofty 230 or higher point range — and this includes them playing thirteen of their last eighteen games Over the Total when on the road. New Orleans (53-36) has played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also played 21 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after a double-digit win. And in the Pelicans’ last 13 games after a win by at least 15 points, they have played 10 of these games Over the Total.
CONCLUSION: New Orleans should continue to feed off the energy of their crowd — which is why I am passing on the side play with the Pelicans being a home dog (though I lean to the Warriors). This is an instance where just taking the Over seems prudent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (705) and the New Orleans Pelicans (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-18 |
Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 210 |
Top |
113-92 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (515) and the Utah Jazz (516). THE SITUATION: Utah (53-37) evened this series at 1-1 with their 116-108 upset win in Houston as a 10.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Jazz now return home to Salt Lake City to host Game Three tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Utah has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road as a double-digit underdog. The Jazz were on-fire with their shooting on Wednesday as they made 15 of their 32 (46.9%) shots from bind the arc. Their 51.8% field goal percentage in that game was their best shooting performance in their last five games. Utah returns home where they have played 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. The Jazz have also played 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog of 6 points or less. Utah has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Houston (70-19) needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing this Jazz team to make at least 50% of their shots in the first two games of this series — and that came after allowing Minnesota to shoot 50.6% from the field in their close out game with the Timberwolves in their previous playoff series. Utah has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Additionally, the Rockets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite at home. Houston goes back on the road after playing their last three games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after playing their last three games at home. And while the Rockets have scored at least 105 points in five straight games — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Lastly, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite.
CONCLUSION: Expect the third game of this series to be lowest scoring game so far between these two teams in the playoffs. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (515) and the Utah Jazz (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-18 |
76ers v. Celtics OVER 205.5 |
Top |
103-108 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). THE SITUATION: Boston (60-30) won the opening game of this series on Monday with their 117-101 upset win versus Philadelphia (56-32) as a 4.5-point favorite. The Celtics host Game Two.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: Boston has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Celtics have played 7 straight games Over the Total after an upset win as a home underdog. Boston has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on their home court. They held the Sixers to just a 42.2% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort in their last three games — so that is area that should see some regression. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total on their home court. Philadelphia (56-32) made only 5 of their last 26 (19.2%) shots from behind the arc despite averaging 11 made shots from behind the arc with a 37.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land on the road. Yet despite that poor shooting effort, they still scored 101 points. The 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as the favorite. Lastly, Philly has played 23 of their last 34 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range.
CONCLUSION: Expect another higher-scoring game between these two teams with Philly likely to play much better on offense and Boston happy to play at their pace while launching plenty of 3s. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-18 |
Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 207 |
Top |
116-108 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (507) and the Houston Rockets (508). THE SITUATION: Houston (70-18) won the opening game of this series on Sunday by a 110-96 score as an 11.5-point favorite. The Rockets dominated that game from the jump and held a 27-point lead at one point in the first-half while cruising to an easy victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Utah (52-37) needs to play much better on the defensive end of the court while making adjustments so that Rudy Gobert is roaming the middle again to protect the rim. Gobert did not block a shot on Saturday while Houston and too many easy shot attempts inside. The Jazz have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They also have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Utah did make 50% of their shots in Game One which was the best offensive effort in their last four games. Despite being without Ricky Rubio, the Jazz collected 20 team assists that resulted in 38 field goals in that game — and it is difficult seeing them performing much better on offense despite that only producing 96 points with Rubio out indefinitely with a hamstring injury. Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Houston nailed 17 of their 32 (53.1%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday so they are due for an appearance from the Regression Gods in that aspect of their hame. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight up win — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Houston has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. The Rockets have also played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total including six of their last seven games against teams with a losing record on the road.
CONCLUSION: The adjustments in Game Two should favor the defensive end of the court for both teams leading to a lower scoring game. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (507) and the Houston Rockets (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-18 |
76ers v. Celtics OVER 205 |
Top |
101-117 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Boston Celtics (556). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-31) gets back to the court for the first time since last Tuesday when they eliminated Miami in five games with their 104-91 victory as a 10-point favorite. Boston (59-30) has a quick turnaround after defeating Milwaukee on Saturday in Game Seven of that series by a 112-96 score as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: Philadelphia (56-31) played their best defensive game in terms of opponent field goal percentage in their last game by holding the Heat to just a 38.6% shooting percentage. That defensive effort helped that game finish below the 215.5 point Total — but the 76ers have played 28 of their last 43 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. And in their last 22 road games as the favorite, the 76ers have played 16 of these games Over the Total. Boston (59-30) should come out smoking in regards to their shooting after making 53.6% of their shots on Saturday. The Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Boston has 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. And in their last 8 games on their home court, the Celtics have played 7 of these games Over the Total.
CONCLUSION: While the Total for this game is dropping after initially being installed at 210, that line movement is going the wrong way. The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown who is dealing with a hamstring injury — but it is his absence which has led to the line dropping. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Boston Celtics (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-18 |
Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 199 |
Top |
101-105 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). THE SITUATION: Indiana (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Friday when they destroyed the Cavaliers by a 121-87 score as a 1.5-point favorite. Game Seven returns to Cleveland (53-35).
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Indiana made 15 of their 30 shots from behind the arc en route to their 56.3% field goal percentage on Friday which was the best shooting performance in their last 58 games. Expect those numbers to decline significantly when playing on the road under the pressure of a Game Seven. As it is, the Pacers shoot only 46.8% with a 36.2% mark from 3-point land when on the road. The Under is 19-6-1 in Indiana’s last 26 games on the road. Indiana has also played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Pacers have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Indiana has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Cleveland has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, the Cavs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss as well as a point spread loss. Cleveland should play better on defense after enduring their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 35 games. The Cavs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. But while Cleveland shot just 41.8% from the field on Friday, that was actually a better shooting mark than their 41.3% field goal percentage at home in Game Five. The Cavaliers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total.
CONCLUSION: The Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 games between these two teams — including going 3-0-1 in the last 4 games played in Cleveland. Expect these team trends to continue this afternoon. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-18 |
Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226 |
Top |
101-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (52-34) reached the Western Conference Semifinals by sweeping Portland in four games after their 131-123 win last Saturday. Golden State (62-25) defeated San Antonio in five games with their 99-91 win over the Spurs on Tuesday. Stephen Curry took part in practice to prepare for this game but he is officially listed as questionable.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: The Pelicans were unstoppable on offense against the Trail Blazers as they made 57% of their shots in their close out game which was their third straight game where they made at least 51.2% of their shots. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games. The Pelicans have also played 20 of their last 31 games Over the Total after allowing at least 115 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The extended break should help the Pelicans offensive flow as well — they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Golden State (62-25) has played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. And while the Warriors have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 16 of their last 27 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Over is 4-1-1 in Golden State’s last 6 games on their home court. And in their last 7 games in the Western Conference Semifinals, they have played 5 of these games Over the Total.
CONCLUSION: Even if Curry does not play tonight, the Warriors should be quite content to engage the Pelicans in an up-tempo game in which they feel they have the advantage over every team in the league. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-18 |
Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 201 |
Top |
86-97 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). THE SITUATION: Boston (58-29) looks to close out this series tonight on the road in perhaps the last game ever to be played in the Bradley Center after taking a 3-2 lead in this series by a 92-87 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Celtics got Marcus Smart back in that game and not only is one of the team’s best defensive players but he has been described as “kind of like the soul of our team” by fellow veteran Al Horford.” Milwaukee (46-41) returns home as the favorite looking to stave off elimination and force a decisive seventh game of this series. The Celtics and Bucks had played five straight and eight straight Overs respectively before Game Five finished below the Total that closed in the 202.5 range.
THE REASONS TO TAKE THE UNDER: Boston has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after allowing 90 points or less in their last game. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 19 Game Sixes in the NBA Playoffs Under the Total — so their history suggests a lower scoring defensive struggle. The insertion of Smart into the rotation is very significant as he can defend the Bucks’ Khris Middleton who has been one of Milwaukee’s two consistent offensive players in this series. The other reliable offensive player for the Bucks has been Giannis Antetokounmpo — but Brad Stevens made an interesting switch in Game Five by starting his rookie big man Semi Ojeleye to defend the Greek Freak. Ojeleye played 40 possessions on Antetokounmpo which accounted for half the game while holding him to a series-low 16 points. Ojeleye’s insertion into the lineup is a game-changer for the Celtics as it created smaller lineups with Greg Monroe pushed out the rotation while Stevens avoided playing Aron Bynes along with Al Horford at the same time. These moves gave the Celtics flexibility on defense for the first time in this series as all five players on the court could switch of screens without needing help. Milwaukee had shot at least 52.1% from the field in Games Two through Four in this series but those look like outlier performances to the 109 Points Per 100 Possession scoring rate that ranked 13th in the NBA during the regular season. I expect points to be hard to come by again for this team. The Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 90 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 185 combined points were scored. Prunty does have this team playing better defense. The Celtics shot 42% from the floor in their winning effort on Tuesday which was their highest field goal percentage in their last three games.
CONCLUSION: Expect the pressure of a elimination/close out game to negatively impact the shooting of both these teams — and with the Total still in the low 200s, the line has not adjusted to what looks to be the new reality of this series. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-18 |
Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
102-115 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (723) and the Utah Jazz (724). Utah (49-35) evened this series at one game apiece with their 102-95 upset win in Portland on Wednesday as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jazz return home for this first time since April 10th after playing three straight games on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least the last seven days. Utah has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. The Jazz have also played 12 of the last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and this includes them playing eight of their last nine games Under the Total when playing on their home court with two days of rest. Additionally, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Furthermore, the Under is 20-8-1 in the Jazz’s last 29 games against fellow Northwest Division opponents.
Oklahoma City (49-35) played their best defensive game in their last ten games by limiting the Jazz to just a 41.7% field goal percentage — and they should continue to play well on the defensive end of the court. The Thunder have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite — and this includes playing seven straight Unders off an upset loss as a home favorite to a fellow Northwest Division rival. Oklahoma City has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, the Thunder have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now OKC goes on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total. The Thunder have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against fellow Northwest Division opponents. And as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Oklahoma City has played 23 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Thunder have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss as a road favorite. And in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in Utah, the game finished Under the Total all 8 times. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (723) and the Utah Jazz (724). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-18 |
Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
90-92 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Indiana Pacers (712). Cleveland (51-33) raced out to a 16-1 lead in the opening minutes of Game Two of this series on Wednesday — and they held on to win that game by a 100-97 score as an 8.5-point favorite. The Cavaliers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Cleveland has also played 11 of their last 15 games after a win on their home court where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. The Cavs shot 50.7% from the field while nailing 11 of their 28 (39.3%) shots from behind the arc — yet they scored 10 points below their 110.4 PPG season scoring average. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Over is also 4-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
Indiana (49-35) has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Pacers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road against their opponent. Furthermore, the Under is 24-7-1 in Indiana’s last 32 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Pacers have played 7 of these games Under the Total. 25* NBA Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (711) and the Indiana Pacers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-18 |
Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 207 |
Top |
110-97 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the San Antonio Spurs (528). Golden State (60-24) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Monday with their 116-101 win as an 8.5-point favorite. The Warriors made 52.6% of their shots in that game after making 54.3% of their shots in Game One of this series fueled by them nailing 15 of their 31 (48.4%) of their shots from behind the arc. Golden State is likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods tonight in regards to their shooting — especially with them playing on the road where they see their 3-point shooting drop to a 37.7% clip as compared to their 39.3% 3-point shooting mark for the season. The Warriors have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. The Under is also 19-7-1 in Golden State’s last 27 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Warriors have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Golden State won the opening game of this series by a 113-92 score — and they have then played 35 of their last 57 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by double-digits. Now the Warriors go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
San Antonio (47-37) has now lost three games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests. The Spurs have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. Game Two finished well above the 205.5 point total — and San Antonio has also played 13 of their last 18 games on their home court Under the Total after game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, the Spurs have seen the Under the Total go 12-5-1 in their last 18 games when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 games when avenging two straight double-digit losses to their opponent. Now the Spurs return home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 21 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. 25* NBA 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the San Antonio Spurs (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-18 |
Suns v. Mavs UNDER 209 |
Top |
124-97 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Phoenix (20-61) has lost two straight games after their 117-100 loss to Golden State on Sunday as a 12.5-point underdog. The Suns allowed the Warriors to make 52.2% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last three games. Phoenix has then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Suns gave played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. And in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%, Phoenix has played 14 of these games Under the Total.
Dallas (24-57) has lost three straight games with their 109-97 loss in Philadelphia on Sunday as a 13.5-point underdog. The Mavericks allows the 76ers to make 50.5% of their shots in that game which was their worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Mavericks have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Dallas returns home where they have played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. The Mavs will be looking to avenge a 102-88 loss to the Suns in Phoenix back on January 31st — and they have played 18 of their last 28 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. Lastly, in the last 16 meetings between these two teams in Dallas, the game finished Under the Total 13 times. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-05-18 |
Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 210 |
Top |
106-126 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (701) and the Indiana Pacers (702). Golden State (57-21) has won three straight games with their 111-107 upset victory at Oklahoma City on Tuesday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Warriors flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Thunder to just a 37.6% field goal percentage. This Golden State team is still playing without Stephen Curry but they do have their other Big Three players in Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green back healthy and on the court. The results have been lower scoring games with the team seeming to emphasize defense as they prepare for the playoffs. They have held their last five opponents to just 103.6 PPG as compared to their 107 PPG they allow for the season. The Warriors are also scoring just 105.6 PPG over those last five games which is far below the 113.9 PPG scoring average for the year. Golden State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, the Warriors have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now Golden State stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Warriors have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. They will be looking to avenge a 92-81 loss at home to the Pacers just back on March 27th — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss in the Oracle Center.
Indiana (46-32) saw their five-game winning stream snapped on Tuesday with their 107-104 loss in Denver as a 4.5-point underdog. The Pacers have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, Indiana has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And in their last 29 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game, the Under is 21-6-1. Now this team returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Pacers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. Lastly, in their last 8 opportunities to host the Warriors, the game finished Under the Total 6 times. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (701) and the Indiana Pacers (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-02-18 |
Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
62-79 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Villanova (35-4) made 13 of their 26 shots from behind the arc in the first-half on Saturday en route to their 95-79 win over Kansas. The memories of the Wildcats’ explosive first-half while making 55.4% of their shots and scoring 95 points against the Jayhawks will compel many bettors take expect another high scoring game and take the Over. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. I expect both teams to be nervy in this game given the pressure of the moment. Both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense — so the tempo of this game can quickly become a slower, half-court affair. The Wolverines only rebound 25.6% of their missed shots which is 270th in the nation. And while Villanova ranks 149th in the nation with a healthier 29.4% offensive rebound rate, that number dropped significantly to a 25.2% mark in Big East play. The Wildcats have covered all five of their games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova has also played 7 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, Villanova has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG.
Michigan (33-7) is now ranked 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after their 69-57 win over Loyola-Chicago on Saturday. They held the Ramblers to just a 43.1% shooting mark while limiting them to making only 1 of their 10 shots from behind the arc. The Wolverines raised their level of play in January when Xavier Simpson finally earned the starting point guard job. Simpson is an outstanding defender who has stymied some of the best offensive guards in the nation — he will make things difficult for the Wildcats’ Jalen Brunson. It is defense that has gotten this Michigan team to the National Championship Game. They made only 42.4% of their shots against the Ramblers — and that was the fourth time in this NCAA Tourney in their five games where they did not shoot better than 44.7% from the field. Head coach John Beilein will try to slow the pace of this game. The Wolverines rank 324th in the nation by averaging only 64.8 possessions per game as compared to the 68.3 national average for possessions. Michigan also ranks 309th in the nation with a patient offense that averages 18.7 seconds per possession which is 1.5 seconds slower than the national average. This slower pace translates into the NCAA Tournament where the Wolverines have now played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Michigan has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Wolverines have played 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 11 games when playing their second game in three days, Michigan has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-18 |
Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 |
Top |
79-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). This is an interesting clash between two teams that love to attempt 3-point shots. Kansas (31-7) is attempting more 3-pointers than ever under Bill Self with 41.4% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc which is 80th in the nation. Jay Wright has been having his team take advantage of the 3-point shot for years now — this year’s Wildcats are attempting 47.1% of their shots from 3-point land which is 14th most in the nation. This importance on the 3-point shot extends to the defensive end of the court where both teams emphasize defending against these shots. The Jayhawks hold their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from inside the arc while Villanova limits their opponents to just a 32.2% field goal percentage from 3-point land. I see these similar styles clashing to produce a lower scoring game between these two heavyweights that will be feeling the pressure of the Final Four. Kansas made only 43.5% of their shots on Sunday in their 85-81 win in overtime over Duke as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks have then played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 85 points. Kansas made 13 shots from 3-point land against the Blue Devils after making 10 shots from behind the arc in their previous game against Clemson — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in each of their last two games. Additionally, while the Wildcats outscore their opponents by +16.4 PPG, the Jayhawks have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
Villanova (34-4) reached the Final Four with their 71-59 win over Texas Tech as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. The Wildcats held the Red Raiders to just a 33.3% shooting percentage in that victory. Villanova has raised their level of play on the defensive end of the court in this Big Dance as they have held their four opponents to scoring at just a 0.99 Points-Per-Possession rate. But concerns exist for the Wildcats on the offensive end of the court after they also made only 33.3% of their shots. Jay Wright credited the Red Raiders’ scouting and schemes to stymie their 3-point offensive attack. They made only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) shots from the 3-point line — and Kansas should be replicating those schemes with a week to prepare for this contest. Villanova has covered the point spread in all four of their NCAA Tournament games as the favorite — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point as the favorite in three straight games. 25* CBB Final Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-18 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Colorado OVER 157.5 |
Top |
71-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Northern Colorado (25-12) reached the Championship Game of the College Insider Tournament on Wednesday with their 99-80 win over Sam Houston State as a 10.5-point favorite. The Bears made 59% of their shots in that game — they are torching the nets to close out the season by making 52.7% of their shots over their last five games. They are scoring 89.9 PPG on their home court this season while making 49.9% of their shots. Northern Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on their home court Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, not only have the Bears played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 points in their last game but they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Northern Colorado made 17 of their 30 (56.7%) shots from behind the arc on Wednesday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Sky Conference.
Illinois-Chicago (20-15) reached the Finals of the CIT with their 67-51 upset win at Liberty on Wednesday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Flames are finding their offense late in the season as the are shooting 46.6% from the field over their last five games which is a notch or so higher than their 45.2% season field goal percentage. Illinois-Chicago has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after an upset win. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Furthermore, this team has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Flames have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Illinois-Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning three of their last four contests. Lastly, the Flames have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. 25* CBB CIT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-28-18 |
Mavs v. Lakers UNDER 216 |
Top |
93-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (515) and the Los Angeles Lakers (516). Los Angeles (32-41) was eliminated from the Western Conference playoffs 112-106 loss in Detroit on Monday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Lakers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Los Angeles is a bit of M*A*S*H unit right now with their leading scoring Brandon Ingram out along with Josh Hart and now Isaiah Thomas who has is dealing with a hip injury like Ingram. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Lakers return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. LA has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Lakers have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
Dallas (23-51) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 103-97 upset win at Sacramento last night as 3-point underdogs. The Mavericks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. Furthermore, Dallas has played 33 of their last 47 games Under the Total after an upset win — and this includes them playing eighteen of their last twenty-six games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. The Mavs have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less — and the Under is a decisive 43-22-1 in their last 65 games after a straight-up win. Dallas is also dealing with a host of injuries with Wesley Matthews and Jose Barrea joining Seth Curry as being unavailable for this team. The Mavericks have played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and this includes them playing ten of their last fifteen games Under the Total when on the road with the over/under within this 210 to 219.5 point range. Dallas has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Lastly, the Mavericks are looking to avenge a 124-102 loss to the Lakers in the Staples Center back on February 23rd. Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss — and they have played 15 of their last 222 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (515) and the Los Angeles Lakers (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-18 |
Mississippi State v. Penn State UNDER 136 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Mississippi State (25-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 79-56 upset win at Louisville as a 6-point underdog last Tuesday. The Bulldogs held the Cardinals to just a 35% field goal percentage in that game. This Mississippi State plays very good defense — they rank 31st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their last five opponents are shooting just 40.1% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Mississippi State has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three straight games — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 56 games on the road Under the Total after winning three straight games. Additionally, while the Bulldogs have played their last two games on the road as an underdog, they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight games on the road as a dog. Furthermore, Mississippi State has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
Penn State (24-13) has also won three straight games with their 85-80 upset win at Marquette last Tuesday. The Nittany Lions made 53.4% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort in their last ten contests. They also allowed the Golden Eagles to make 45.9% of their shots which was actually the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last three games. Penn State has the 19th best defense in the nation when measured by Adjusted Efficiency. They will need to lean on their defense tonight considering that they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. Expect this game to be more of a defensive struggle as they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Nittany Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. Additionally, Penn State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-18 |
Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
59-71 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Texas Tech (27-9) has won five of their last six games with their 78-65 upset win over Purdue on Friday. The Red Raiders made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was actually the best offensive performance in their last five contests. They also held the Boilermakers to just a 44.8% shooting percentage which sounds pretty good (especially against an offensive powerhouse like Purdue) — yet that was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Texas Tech is a defense-first team that likes to play at a slower pace. They average 66.7 possessions per game which is the 247th fewest in the nation. Chris Beard’s team is 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While they are facing a Michigan team that scores 87.0 PPG, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that score at least 84.0 PPG. The Red Raiders have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total in Tournament action — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in the last 42 games on the road with no more than one day of rest, they have played 28 of these games Under the Total.
Villanova (33-4) has won eight straight games with their 90-78 win over West Virginia on Friday. The Wildcats held the Mountaineers to just a 38.6% field goal percentage in their victory. Villanova has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day of rest. The Wildcats made 23 of their 27 (85.2%) of their free throws against a West Virginia team that commits a ton of fouls as a by-product of their defensive pressure. Villanova has played 19 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they made at least 78% of their free throws. There were 76 possessions in that game with West Virginia which may persuade many bettors into expecting another Over with Jay Wright’s offensive juggernaut that has put up amazing shooting numbers over the years. But in Villanova’s previous ten NCAA Tournament games, the average number of possessions was 63.8 which is far below this year’s average throughout all of Division One College Basketball of 68.3. The Wildcats made 13 of their 24 (54.2%) of their 3-point shots against West Virginia but those shots may be harder to come by against this Red Raiders’ defense that holds their opponents to just a 32.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-23-18 |
Clemson v. Kansas UNDER 143 |
Top |
76-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Clemson (25-9) reached the Sweet 16 with their 84-53 upset win over Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just a 25.8% shooting percentage in what was their best defensive effort of the season. Clemson should be able to maintain this level of defensive intensity — they rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have held their first two NCAA Tournament opponents to 32% shooting. The Tigers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games while playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. It is on offense where the Tigers are likely to receive a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 51.6% of their shots in their first two games in the Big Dance including nailing 16 of their 40 (40%) shots from behind the arc. Clemson is not a strong offensive team — they ranked 11th in the ACC in Adjusted Efficiency. The Tigers shooting inside the arc has been the biggest surprise as they made 46 of their 80 (57.5%) 2-point shots after making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc in ACC play which ranked 10th in the conference. The season-ending injury to their best player in 6’9 Donte Grantham has really hurt the offensive effectiveness of this team. With Grantham on the court, Clemson was making 56.6% of their shots inside the arc — but without him, they see that number drop to just a 45.4% slip for their 2-pointers. They were scoring 77 PPG before Grantham’s injury but that number dropped to a 68 PPG clip for this team before they began the Big Dance. The Tigers benefited from playing New Mexico State and an Auburn team that suffered their own challenging season-ending injury in Anfernee McLemore who their best post defender. Moving forward, the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in non-conference play.
Kansas (29-7) has won five straight games after they defeated Seton Hall by an 83-79 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Jayhawks have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Kansas’ rim protector Udoka Azubuike was only able to play 22 minutes in that win over the Pirates — but they did hold Seton Hall to a 45% field goal percentage. With the extra days to rest and rehab his knee, Azubuike should be able to impose his presence of the defensive end of the court tonight. And while the Jayhawks have scored at least 76 points in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in five straight games. Lastly, Kansas has played 29 of their last 40 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-18 |
Mississippi State v. Louisville OVER 144 |
Top |
79-56 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Mississippi State (24-11) has won two straight games — as well as three of their last four games — with their 78-77 upset win at Baylor on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Mississippi State has also played a decisive 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court.
Louisville (22-13) reached the NIT Quarterfinals with their 84-68 win over Middle Tennessee on Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Cardinals have then seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Louisville has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win on their home court. Additionally, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-18 |
Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 143.5 |
Top |
81-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). St. Mary’s (29-5) reached the second round of the NIT last Tuesday with their 89-45 win over Southeastern Louisiana as a 14.5-point favorite. The Gaels torched the Lions by making 59.3% of their shots which was the best offensive effort in their last eight games. This game shapes up to be more of a defensive struggle. St. Mary’s has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Gaels have paled 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread. Furthermore, this team has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. St. Mary’s gets to host this second round game where they are holding their opponents to just 59.8 PPG on 40.9% shooting. The Gaels have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total on their home court. And in their last 5 games against non-conference opponents, St. Mary’s has played 4 of these games Under the Total.
Washington (21-12) advanced to the second round of the NIT with their 77-74 upset win over Boise State as a 2-point last Wednesday. The Huskies held the Broncos to just a 35.4% shooting percentage as they continued to play well on that end of the court leading the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But Washington was 10th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency so they will need to lean on their defensive play to stay competitive in this game. They make only 43.2% of their shots on the road. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington has also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Lastly, the Huskies have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB NIT Second Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-17-18 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 131 |
Top |
63-62 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Tennessee (28-8) played perhaps their best defensive game of the season on Thursday in their 73-47 win over Wright State. The Volunteers held the Raiders to just a 31.7% shooting percentage which was their best defensive performance of the season. Expect another outstanding defensive effort from Rick Barnes’ team as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 50 or less points in their last game. Tennessee has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Vols team boasts the nation’s 5th best statistical defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They should slow down this Ramblers’ juggernaut. Tennessee can be exploited on the offensive glass — they allow their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their missed shots which is 288th in the nation. But this Loyola-Chicago team sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they only rebound 22.2% of their missed shots which is 332nd lowest in the nation. Of course, the Ramblers’ commitment to getting back on defense will frustrate the Volunteers who love to get their offense going on the fast break. Tennessee struggles in their half-court offense — they make only 47.2% of their shots inside the arc (282nd in the nation). Tennessee has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the Volunteers have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
Loyola-Chicago (29-5) reached the Round of 32 with their 64-62 win over Miami (FL) has a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Ramblers eked that game out by making 47.3% from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last five games. But they also allowed the Hurricanes to make 51% of their shots which as their worst defensive effort in their last twenty-six contests. Expect Loyola-Chicago to play much better on defense this afternoon. This team ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Tennessee makes over 38% of their 3-point shots — but the Ramblers rank 44th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from behind the arc. Loyola-Chicago has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And with that game with the Hurricanes finishing below the 133 point total, the Ramblers have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Loyola’s previous game resulted in a 65-49 victory over Illinois State in the Finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in their last two games. The Ramblers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight contests. Loyola-Chicago’s offense stems primarily from good shooting — they are 8th in the nation in effective field goal percentage while ranking 14th in the nation with a 40.0% shooting mark from downtown. But the Volunteers rank 12th in the nation in their opponent’s eFG while limiting their opponents to just a 31.5% shooting mark from behind the arc which is 14th best in the country. Lastly, the Ramblers have played 5 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round Two Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-18 |
Wright State v. Tennessee UNDER 132 |
Top |
47-73 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (737) and the Tennessee Volunteers (738). I used to like taking Unders for these early tournament games on neutral courts in the Conference Tournaments — but too many bettors started latching on to that angle to squash much of the value in these investments. I had no early Unders for the Conference Tournaments (and I might have had an Over?) — but I do like the convergence of factors for this game to be lower scoring than expected between two teams with stout defenses but who can experience scoring droughts. And this game will tip off 11:40 AM local time in Dallas which may contribute to a groggy start for both teams. Wright State (25-9) is a defense-first team that ranked 30th in the nation by allowing only 65.7 PPG. Led by 6’9 freshman Loudon Love and 6’11 Parker Ernsthausen make it very tough for opposing teams to score inside — the Raiders’ ranked 26th in the nation by limiting their opponents to making just 45.6% of their shots inside the arc with that number dropping to just a 44.3% mark in Horizon League play. This strength compels them to play at a slow pace where they are quite content to grind out low-scoring games. This Wright State team has a low effective field goal percentage of 49.0% ranking 254th in the nation — and they make only 34.0% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 221st in the nation. Only Grant Benzinger makes more than 36% of his shots from 3-point land This team plays as if the first team to 65 points wins — they averaged only 64 PPG in their nine losses this year. They won the Horizon League Tournament with their 74-57 win over Cleveland State — and they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And while that game finished Over the 126.5 point total, the Raiders have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing an Over. They limited the Vikings to only 4 offensive rebounds in that game to continue their strong protection of their defensive glass as they ranked 38th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down just 25.0% of their missed shots. Wright State has then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. And in their last 10 games against teams outside the Horizon League, Wright State has played 7 of these games Under the Total.
Tennessee (25-8) ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This Volunteers’ team boasts athleticism and length which helps them to be strong in all facets on defense including closing off transitions, forcing turnovers while boasting on-the-ball skills that led to them ranking in the 96th percentile in half-court defense. They limited SEC opponents to scoring at just a 1.01 Points-Per-Possession rate. But this Tennessee team can struggle on offense. They have five players who make at least 38% of their 3-pointers — but because they lack a guard who can create his own shot or who is proficient in creating scoring opportunities for others, this team can become too reliant on jump shots. They rank just 290th in the nation by making only 47.0% of their 2-point shots. In five of their last eight regular season games against SEC foes, the Volunteers scored at a rate lower than 0.97 PPP. Tennessee enters the Big Dance coming off a 77-72 upset loss to Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game as a 2-point favorite where they shot just 37.1% from the field. The Volunteers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Tennessee has played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Additionally, the Volunteers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. And in their last 5 games against SEC foes, the Vols have played all 5 of these games Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (737) and the Tennessee Volunteers (738). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-18 |
Washington v. Boise State UNDER 148.5 |
Top |
77-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (625) and the Boise State Broncos (626). Washington (20-12) enters the NIT having lost two straight games after losing to Oregon State in the Pac-12 Tournament by a 69-66 score last Wednesday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Huskies made only 38.3% of their shots in that game but did hold the Beavers to a 39.3% shooting percentage. Washington has then played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival. The Huskies have also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Washington was the lower seed in this game — but a conflict with the Boise State basketball arena tonight means that the Huskies will be hosting this game. The Huskies have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total. Washington has also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while this team has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total.
Boise State (23-8) has lost two of their last three games with their 78-75 upset loss to Utah State last Thursday as an 8-point favorite. The Broncos went to halftime with a 40-32 lead — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in the first-half of their last game. Boise State made 14 of their 18 free throw attempts (78%) in that game — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they made at least 78% of their free throw attempts. The Broncos have to accept that they will be on the road for this game (despite being the lower seed) — and they have seen the Under go 12-3-1 in their last road games which includes playing seven straight Unders against teams with a winning record at home. Boise State has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. And in their last 16 games with the Total set in the 140 got 149.5 point range, the Broncos have played 12 of these games Under the Total. 25* CBB NIT First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (625) and the Boise State Broncos (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-18 |
Colgate v. San Francisco UNDER 140.5 |
Top |
68-72 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colgate Raiders (633) and the San Francisco Dons (634). San Francisco (18-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 88-60 loss to Gonzaga as a 13-point underdog back on March 5th. The Dons played their worst defensive game of the season by watching the Bulldogs make 53.3% of their shots in that game. Expect a strong defensive effort from San Francisco tonight as they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Dons have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. San Francisco hosts this game where they hold their visitors to just a 42.6% shooting percentage — but they only make 42.8% of their shots as well. The Dons have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 7 times.
Colgate (19-13) saw their five-game losing streak snapped last Wednesday with their rough 83-54 loss at Bucknell as an 8.5-point underdog. The Raiders made only 32.7% of their shots in that game — and that came on the heels of making only 32.1% of their shots in their previous game. Over their last five games, this team is shooting only 40.3% from the field. But the bigger problem for Colgate was that Bucknell made 51.7% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Raiders have then played 7 of their last 10 boarded games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Colgate has played 4 of their last 5 boarded games Under the Total on the road — and they have played a decisive 17 of their last 19 road boarded games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Raiders have played 5 straight games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. And in their last 25 games as an underdog, Colgate has played 18 of these boarded games Under the Total. 25* CBB CBI First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colgate Raiders (633) and the San Francisco Dons (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-18 |
Long Island v. Radford UNDER 139 |
Top |
61-71 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Long Island Blackbirds (543) and the Radford Highlanders (544). Redford (22-12) earned an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament with their 55-52 win over Liberty last Sunday to win the Big South Conference Tournament. The Highlanders got it done by playing outstanding defense. They have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting percentage which is a bit lower than their 42.8% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Radford has then played 4 straight boarded games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 boarded games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. Additionally, the Highlanders have played 6 of their last 7 boarded games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. Radford’s win over Liberty occurred despite the Flames making 43.9% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage of their last seven opponents. The Highlanders shot 36.2% from the field which sounds low — but it was actually their best field goal percentage over their last three games. Scoring is an issue for this Radford team that makes only 41.2% of their shots away from home. They are making only 39.6% of their shots over their last five games. The Highlanders scored only 61 points in their previous game — and they have then played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 65 points in two straight games. They only had 7 assists in their win over Liberty — and they have played 5 straight boarded games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 9 team assists in their last game. Long Island loves to shoot 3s as they average 23 shots from behind the 3-point line — but head coach Mike Jones coached teams have played 9 of their last 11 boarded games Under the Total against opponents who attempt at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game. Redford was 2nd in the Big South in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they led the conference by holding their opponents to just a 47.1% shooting percentage inside the arc.
Long Island (18-16) earned an automatic bid to the Big Dance with their 71-61 win at Wagner last Tuesday. The Blackbirds have then played 5 of their last 7 boarded games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 boarded games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Long Island has played 5 of their last 6 boarded games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row. Over their last five contests, the Blackbirds defense has improved significantly as they have held those opponents to just a 35.5% field goal percentage. The Seahawks made only 30% of their shots despite having the advantage of playing on their home court in that Big South Tournament Championship Game. But Long Island was on fire wit their shooting as they made 53.2% of their shots — but they are not likely to come close to that figure in this game when considering that was tied for the best field goal percentage over their last fourteen games. Moving forward, the Highlanders have played 5 of their last 6 boarded. games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. And in their last 6 boarded games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the Blackbirds have played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Long Island Blackbirds (543) and the Radford Highlanders (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-18 |
Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 133 |
Top |
59-62 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (849) and the Tennessee Volunteers (850). Mississippi State (22-10) reached the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament yesterday with their 80-77 win over LSU as a 3-point favorite. The Bulldogs shot lights out in that game by making 58.3% of their shots which was not only their best field goal percentage over their last six games but also their third best offensive effort of the season. But Mississippi State has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field in their last game. The Bulldogs have also played 30 of their last 46 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or rest between games. Additionally, Mississippi State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when an underdog or a pick ‘em. And while the Volunteers are outscoring their opponents by +8.1 PPG this season, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight games Under the Total against opponents that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
Tennessee (23-7) has won four straight games with their 66-61 win over Georgia last Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite. Despite holding the Bulldogs to just a 42.3% shooting percentage, that was actually the Volunteers highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. Tennessee has not allowed more than 65 points in each of their last four games — and they have then played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in four straight contests. Additionally, the Volunteers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 7 straight road games Under the Total after winning two straight games against SEC rivals. Moving forward, the Volunteers have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lastly, in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Tennessee has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* CBB SEC Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (849) and the Tennessee Volunteers (850). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-18 |
San Diego State v. Fresno State UNDER 138 |
Top |
64-52 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (719) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (720). San Diego State (19-10) has won six straight games with their 79-74 win over Nevada last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. The Aztecs made 49.2% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed the Wolf Pack to make 49.2% of their shots which was their worst defensive performance in their last seven contests. Both of those results should see some regression this afternoon which points to an Under. As it is, the Under is 5-0-1 in San Diego State’s last 6 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three straight games against conference rivals. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing their last two games on their home court. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Under is 4-1-1 for San Diego State.
Fresno State (21-10) has lost two of their last three games with their 95-86 loss at New Mexico as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Bulldogs did shoot 49.1% from the field in that game which was their best film goal parentage in their last four games. But Fresno State allowed the Lobos to make 53.7% of their sots which was their worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. Both marks should see declines in this game to help our Under. The Bulldogs have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, Fresno State has managed to pull down only 8 offensive rebounds in each of their last two games — and they have then played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not rebounding more than 9 boards in two straight games. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 26 of their last 38 road games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a conference rival. Lastly, in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Fresno State has played all 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (719) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-18 |
Cleveland State v. Oakland UNDER 146 |
Top |
44-43 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland State Vikings (723) and the Oakland Grizzlies (724). Cleveland State (11-22) pulled off their third straight upset victory on Saturday with their 89-80 shocking 89-80 win over tournament favorite Northern Kentucky by an 89-80 score despite being a 14-point underdog. The Vikings have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset win over a conference rival. Cleveland State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Vikings have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Additionally, Cleveland State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 80 points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games after a game that finished Over the Total as their game with Norse finished well above that 140 point total. Despite that high scoring game, the Vikings are playing better on defense which explains why they are pulling off these upsets. Cleveland State has held their last five opponents to just a 40.0% shooting percentage. Moving forward, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
Oakland (19-13) looks to build off their 62-55 win over IUPUI yesterday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Grizzlies flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Jaguars to just a 37.7% shooting percentage in the win. Oakland has then played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning a game where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, the Grizzlies have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while this Oakland team has failed to cover the point spread in nine of their last ten games, they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. Moving forward, the Grizzlies have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games against teams playing on a neutral field, the Under is 4-1-1. 25* CBB Horizon League Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland State Vikings (723) and the Oakland Grizzlies (724). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-18 |
76ers v. Bucks UNDER 208 |
Top |
110-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (809) and the Milwaukee Bucks (810). Philadelphia (34-27) has won two straight games with their 110-99 win over Charlotte on Friday as a 3.5-point favorite. The 76ers made 50.6% of their shots in that game — but they are still shooting only 44.8% over their last five games which a click or two below their 46.5% field goal percentage for the season. The 76ers have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Philadelphia has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And in their last 14 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game, the 76ers have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
Milwaukee (33-29) has lost four games in a row with their 103-96 loss to Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. The Bucks shot just 38.3% from the field in that game as they continued to struggle on offense while missing two important pieces in their rotation in the injured Matthew Dellavedova and Malcolm Brogdon. Milwaukee is making only 43.3% of their shots over their last five games which is far below their 47.5% season average. The Bucks have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now the Bucks stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. And in their last 21 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents, Milwaukee has played 16 of these games Under the Total. 25* NBA Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (809) and the Milwaukee Bucks (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-18 |
Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 132 |
Top |
60-63 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (847) and the Michigan State Spartans (848). Wisconsin (14-17) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament yesterday afternoon with their 59-54 upset win over Maryland as a 2.5-point underdog. The Badgers won that game despite making just 36% of their shots. Wisconsin has won four of their last five games in large part because they have finally started limiting their turnovers. Not offering opponents fast break transition opportunities was a foundational principle for this program under head coach Bo Ryan as they finished in Top-Five nationally in limiting turnovers in the final seven seasons of his coaching tenure. But this Badgers’ team under head coach Greg Gard was turning the ball over in 20.7% of their possessions after their first four games in Big Ten play. This young Wisconsin team has improved significantly in this department as they have not turned the ball over more than 15.9% of their possessions in each of their last eight games. Protecting the basketball has helped the Badgers slow the tempo and grind games out. They have played 4 of their last 5 games in conference play Under the Total. Wisconsin will certainly try to shorten the game and limit the number of scoring possessions for the Spartans. Michigan State is outscoring their opponents by +17.5 PPG — and the Badgers have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG. Wisconsin has also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Under is 12-3-2 in the Badgers’ last 17 games played on a neutral court. Furthermore, Wisconsin is playing with double-revenge this season after losing to Sparty twice this season — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total when facing a team that has beaten them in at least two straight games.
Michigan State (28-3) takes to the court again after their 68-63 win at this same Wisconsin team last Sunday in Madison as a 7.5-point favorite. The Spartans have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in a week. Additionally, Michigan State has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This Tom Izzo team may very well be his best defensive team ever in his long career. They lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.0%. Furthermore, this team is absolutely filthy in protecting the rim as they are limiting their opponents to just a 37.8% shooting mark inside the arc which is the second lowest mark for any team in College Basketball over the last fifteen seasons. But this Spartans team can get stuck on offense if their superstar Miles Bridges can not get his offensive game going. Bridges has not scored more than 10 points in four of his last seven games — and Michigan State has played 6 of those 7 conference games Under the Total. Moving forward, the Spartans have played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. And while Sparty has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Lastly, Michigan State has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB Big Ten Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (847) and the Michigan State Spartans (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-18 |
Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
77-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
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At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon State Beavers (553) and the Washington Huskies (554). Oregon State (14-14) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 79-75 win over Arizona State as a 2.5-point underdog. The Beavers made 52.8% of their shots in that game which was their best offensive effort in their last four contests. Oregon State has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference rival. Additionally, the Beavers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, while that game finished Over the 149.5-point Total, they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. This Oregon State is one of the best defensive teams in the Pac-12 — they rank 4th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, opponent’s effective field goal percentage and opponent’s 3-point percentage. But this Beavers team struggles on offense as they rank 8th in all three of those offensive categories as well. Oregon State makes only 43.2% of their shots on the road — but they do hold their home hosts to just a 42.8% shooting percentage. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Beavers’ last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall.
Washington (19-10) is the best team in the Pac-12 when it comes to Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, opponent’s effective field goal percentage and opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage. But this Huskies team ranks second to last on offense in all three of those categories. They enter this game having won two of their last three games with their 68-51 win at California as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Washington has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, this team has now played a decisive 23 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow Pac-12 opponents. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Lastly, the Huskies are looking to avenge a 97-94 loss to Oregon State back on February 10th — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon State Beavers (553) and the Washington Huskies (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-28-18 |
Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
87-110 |
Win
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100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (701) and the Detroit Pistons (702). Detroit (28-32) has lost three straight games after their 123-94 loss at Toronto on Monday as a 10-point underdog. The Pistons allowed the Raptors to make 52.5% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last twenty-one games. Detroit started out red hot after bringing Blake Griffin into tow — but things have gone south very quickly for this team. Head coach Stan Van Gundy has to get this team playing harder on the defensive end of the court when considering that their shots are not falling. The Pistons are making only 41.9% of their shots over their last five games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Detroit returns home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 contests. Additionally, the Pistons have played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight losses on the road. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-3 in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 18-6-2 in their last 26 games games after a loss by at least 10 points.
Milwaukee (33-27) has lost two straight games after their 107-104 loss to Washington last night as a 3-point favorite. The Bucks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. Milwaukee has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with winning records on their home court. Detroit launches 28 shots from 3-point land per game - -and the Bucks have played 13 of their last 18 games in the second-half of the season Under the Total against opponents that average at least 18 shots from behind the arc per contest. Lastly, in the last 9 meetings between these two teams, the Under is 6-2-1. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (701) and the Detroit Pistons (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-27-18 |
Ball State v. Central Michigan OVER 150 |
Top |
51-75 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 2 m |
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At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (517) and the Central Michigan Chippewas (518). Ball State (19-10) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 87-80 upset loss to Western Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite. The Cardinals allowed the Broncos to shoot 51.7% from the field in that game which was their worst defensive effort in their last six games. They did stay competitive in that game since they made 53.6% of their shots. Now this Ball State goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. The Cardinals have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Now they travel to Muskegon to face this Chippewas team that is outscoring their opponents by +5.3 PPG — and Ball State has played 21 of their last 29 games against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG. Furthermore, Central Michigan launches 28 shots from 3-point range per game — and the Cardinals have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 21 shots from the 3-point line per game.
Central Michigan (16-13) has lost three straight games after their 89-76 loss at Toledo on Saturday as a 7-point underdog. The Chippewas have then played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. Central Michigan has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 90 points in their last contest. Now this team returns home where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total. The Chippewas have also played 6 straight home games Over the total as an underdog. Ball State launches 23 shots from behind the arc themselves — and Central Michigan has played 17 of their last 20 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that average at least 21 shots per game from 3-point land. Additionally, the Chippewas are looking to avenge a 82-76 loss to Ball State back on January 16th — and they have played 14 of the last 19 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (517) and the Central Michigan Chippewas (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-26-18 |
Pacers v. Mavs UNDER 210 |
Top |
103-109 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (715) and the Dallas Mavericks (716). Indiana (34-25) has won four straight games with their 116-93 win over Atlanta on Friday as a 7-point favorite. The Pacers have then seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. Indiana has also seen the Under after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. And while that game finished just above the 208.5 point total, they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the number. Now this team goes back on the road where the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games. Furthermore, Indiana has played 13 of their last 17 road games in the second half of the season against opponents with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. And in the last 10 games against Western Conference foes, the Pacers have played 8 of these games Under the Total.
Dallas (18-42) has lost four straight games after their 97-90 loss at Utah on Saturday as a 10-point underdog. The Mavericks have then played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after losing at least two straight games. Dallas has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Now this team returns home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. The Mavericks have also played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 30 home games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range, Dallas has played 21 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 23 of their last 35 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, while the Pacers average 106.9 PPG, Dallas has played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams that score at least 106 PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (715) and the Dallas Mavericks (716). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-25-18 |
Mercer v. Wofford OVER 139 |
Top |
69-68 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Mercer Bears (857) and the Wofford Terriers (858). Mercer (17-13) has won seven straight games after their 83-70 win at the Citadel on Friday as a 6.5-point favorite. The Bears shot 49.2% from the field in that game which was actually their worst offensive effort in their last four games. This Mercer team won by playing one of their better games of the season on defense as they held the Citadel to just a 36.7% shooting percentage which was tied for the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. The Bears have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after a point spread win. Mercer has also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning at least four straight games. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total as the underdog or as a pick ‘em. The Bears have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Mercer has played 4 of these games Over the Total.
Wofford (20-10) has won three of their last four games with their 75-71 upset win at East Tennessee State on Friday as a 9-point underdog. The Terriers have then played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total after an upset win over a conference rival. Wofford has also played a decisive 31 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 9 home games after winning three of their last four, the Terriers have played 8 of these games Over the Total. Now this team returns home where they have played 37 of their last 53 games Over the Total — and this includes playing twenty-two of their last thirty home games Over the Total. Wofford has also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, the Terriers are looking to avenge a 73-65 loss to the Bears back on February 3rd. Wofford has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Mercer Bears (857) and the Wofford Terriers (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-18 |
Lakers v. Kings OVER 220 |
Top |
113-108 |
Win
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100 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (515) and the Sacramento Kings (516). Los Angeles (24-34) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with their 124-102 win over Dallas as a 4-point favorite. The Lakers were buoyed by the return of Lonzo Ball to the court who helped them shoot 51.6% from the field. Los Angeles has scored at least 106 points in seven straight games — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. The Lakers also held the Mavericks to just a 40.7% shooting percentage in their best defensive effort in their last four games. But LA has then played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. And in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court, Los Angeles has played 4 of these games Over the Total. Furthermore, the Lakers have played 7 of their lsat 9 games Over the Total against Pacific Division rivals.
Sacramento (18-40) has lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 110-107 loss to Oklahoma City on Thursday as an 8-point underdog. The Kings have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Sacramento has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Kings stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Sacramento has also played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 10 home games as an underdog getting no more than 6 points, the Kings have played 9 of these games Over the Total. Furthermore, Sacramento has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against fellow Pacific Division rivals. Lastly, in their last 27 opportunities to host the Lakers, the Kings have played 19 of these games Over the Total. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (515) and the Sacramento Kings (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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