Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-17-18 | Hornets -6.5 v. Knicks | 101-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Charlotte's Hornets star Dwight Howard enters this game on fire , playing some of his best basketball in years with three 30-point games in the last 10 days, including a 33-point performance in a 129-117 win over his former team, the Atlanta Hawks. Tonight I'm betting he will be the catalyst behind what is a now an explosive Charlotte offense that can easily take advantage of a team that has lost 9 straight and 17 of their L/18 games overall and playing a lot of young players. NEW YORK is 9-21 ATS L/30 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. NBA Favorites (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 29-5 ATS l/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover |
|||||||
03-17-18 | Rockets v. Pelicans +7.5 | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
One of Houston's three losses since Jan. 6 was a 115-113 setback at New Orleans on Jan. 26 and now the teams play again. Houston is off clinching the division title last time out, on Thursday and could now be in a letdown spot vs a side that actually matches up quite well against them as has been evident by recent meetings. I know New Orleans has struggled a bit over tier last few games, but taking on this type of top tier side I'm betting will bring out the best them. Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and get the nod getting points here this evening. Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New Orleans.Underdog is 20-9-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 44-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
|||||||
03-16-18 | Clippers +5 v. Thunder | 113-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
The Oklahoma City Thunder have made a habit of beating up on lower tier teams, which is good as their taking care of business when they need to but, they have struggled against better teams. . Since Feb. 1, the Thunder are just 2-6 against teams with better-than-.500 records, beating only Golden State on the road and the Spurs at home. Tonight they go against another above .500 opponent, the LA Clippers a team that desperately needs win to get into the play offs as they are on the bubble at the moment. Los Angeles has won 11 of their last 16 to stay in playoff contention and must not be underestimated in their current desperate form. Note: The Thunder could be without Center Steven Adams and George who were both limited in Thursday's practice and both are listed as questionable. If they do play they will be less than 100%,giving a key advantage to the Clippers. LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS on Friday nights this season. The Thunder are 0-12 ATS L/12 failing to cover by 9.75 ppg and 1-11 with that win coming by just 1 point when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a road favorite in which their high scorer had at least ten more points than their next highest scorer. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
|||||||
03-16-18 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 113-121 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Both these sides have played some fairly high scoring back and forth games of late, but the Clippers still key on defense to get where they need to go, and have seen 3 of their L/4 stay under the total . The average combined score of the Clippers road games clicks in at around 216 ppg. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City also has been running and gunning on a consistent basis, but because of this the lines makers are attaching some slightly bloated Totals to their tilts which makes for value when looking at the under as is evident by 4 of their L/5 home tilts failing to eclipse the number. The Thunders home games have seen a combined average score of 209.6 ppg scored behind the 20th ranked pace in the league and the 8th best defensive rating. My projections make this Total closer to 219 which gives us value on the under. OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-27 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record dating back to last season with a combined average score of 211.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER L/33 against Pacific division opponents with a combined average score of 213.1 ppg scored. The Thunder are 0-20 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest when they won as a favorite in each of their last two games with the highest score in those games coming in at 218 total points with the average combined score clicking in at 193.7 ppg. The Thunder are 0-19 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest off a double-digit win as a favorite with the highest score in those games not eclipsing the 216 point plateau. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 38-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average score of 211.6 ppg scored. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
03-16-18 | Celtics v. Magic +6.5 | 92-83 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
The banged up Boston Celtics gave everything they had against long time rivals the Washington Wizards last time out losing, 125-124 in OT. Now still shorthanded playing without key cog Kyrie Irving and exhausted and emotionally letdown after that above mentioned marathon event, they will be at a disadvantage trying to cover a 6 point + spread on the road against a young hungry group in Orlando looking for recognition. Meanwhile, Orlando has also sustained some injuries, but they are also hanging in there, and are off a win last time out and for the most part remain competitive and deserve my respect here as home dogs in this spot. I know that Boston lost to Orlando at home back in Jan , but right now I don't think their in the best shape mentally or physically to get their revenge and hand out a beat down in their current form BOSTON is 9-21 ATS versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons. .
NBA Road teams (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 95-154 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Orlando to cover |
|||||||
03-15-18 | Raptors -3.5 v. Pacers | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Heading into this tilt at Indiana , the Toronto Raptors are in red hot form and have won nine in a row and 16 of its last 17 and are one of the very few teams in this league that must be respected as road favorites. I know Toronto has played a heavy schedule of late , but they are the best conditioned team in the NBA, and more than capable of standing tall here and notching the win and cover s visitors. A great deal has been made of Indiana, and I respect this team, but they have proven highly inconsistent this season, with long negative and positive runs and despite of a current 3 game win streak and 6 wins in their L/7 overall , just dont' inspire me against this type of lights out side, that will primed to continue to prove their dominance over the Eastern Conference. Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. TORONTO is 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Toronto 114.6 Opp 97 NBA Road favorites (TORONTO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-3 L/21 seasons for a 89.% conversion rate for bettors. ( Team 98 Opp 87.5) Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
|||||||
03-14-18 | Wizards v. Celtics +2.5 | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Boston has been hampered over the last week with injuries and enters Wednesday night's game vs Washington minus at least two starters and two reserves. but despite of this they are a deep team, and must not be underestimated at home as underdogs. Meanwhile visiting Washington had a 5 game winning streak ended in ugly DD fashion last time out, to Minnesota and looked a little fatigued in that game, as many teams in the league are right now as the season begins to wind down.
These teams are vicious rivals, and despite of Boston being short handed , I'm betting they make a game of this and get the cover as home dogs. BOSTON is 11-2 ATS as an underdog this season. WASHINGTON is 15-26 ATS as a favorite this season.BOSTON is 31-15 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 dating back to last season. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 73-10 L/5 seasons for a 88% SU conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 26-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
|||||||
03-12-18 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 207 | 121-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies are in full tank mode, and are using a lot of young players . and partly because of this have not been fluid offensively for long time and have failed to score more than 98 points in 10 of their L/15 games . Memphis because of their lack of scoring and key injuries have seen 6 of their L/7 stay below the Total and here against Milwaukee tonight, I'm expecting another combined score to fail to eclipse the number. It must also be noted that their opponents tonight Milwaukee have been playing a more conservative style of hoops, of late and have failed to score more than 99 points in 6 of their L/8 games. Everything points to this being a viable under wager. MEMPHIS is 21-9 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better this season with a combined average score of 200.9 ppg going on the board.MEMPHIS is 12-4 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average score of 198.7 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in home games after 7 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average score of 191.8 ppg scored. Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 overall.Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.MILWAUKEE is 22-11 UNDER L/33 in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins with a a combined average score of 204.3 ppg.Under is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 11-3 in Bucks last 14 road games.Under is 21-8 in Bucks last 29 overall.Under is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings.
NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in March games are 34-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
03-11-18 | 76ers v. Nets +6 | 120-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Philadelphia enters this game having lost eight of its last 11 road games, and are being over valued here vs a Brooklyn side that has been very competitive of late covering 5 of their L/6 games overall including a DD win last time out. Note: BROOKLYN is 7-0 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. Meanwhile, The Sixer's issues of late seem to be a lack of conditioning as they have looked fatigued , with key contributors like Joel Embiid who has looked gassed in recent outings averaging just 18.8 points on 41 percent shooting in five games in March after averaging 24.4 ppg on 50.3 percent shooting in February. QUOTE: "I think fatigue definitely has a part to say in some of Joel's performances recently," Philadelphia coach Brett Brown told reporters after Thursday's game when Embiid shot less than 30 percent for the first time all season. END QUOTE: With that said, I'm betting on a fairly well rested Brooklyn side to make a game of this and not be easy outs . Take the points. ( The last time these teams played here in Brooklyn back on Jan 31 the Nets won 116-108 as 8 point dogs) BROOKLYN is 15-7 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.BROOKLYN is 25-12 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season.BROOKLYN is 32-20 ATS as an underdog this season. BROOKLYN is 19-9 ATS L/28 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. NBA Home teams (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games are 71-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more are 6-26 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
|||||||
03-11-18 | Jazz -2 v. Pelicans | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans saw their franchise record-tying 10-game winning streak abruptly end Friday night with a 116-97 home loss to the Washington Wizards and I am now betting they will lose two in row as they face the up trending Utah Jazz a side that has won 10 consecutive road games and 17 of their last 19 games overall. It must also be noted that Key Pelicans starter Anthony Davis is injured ( ankle) and despite of practicing yesterday is going to be less than 100% if he plays today. The Jazz have won two of three meetings this season against the Pelicans, including a 133-109 blowout of the Pelicans in New Orleans on Feb. 5. According to my system to system power rankings this was not an anomaly , and are the superior side in this matchup as the linesmakers have already estimated. NEW ORLEANS is 1-10 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 free throws/game or less this season.UTAH is 8-1 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 9-36 ATS L/21 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after allowing 115 points or more are 34-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover
|
|||||||
03-10-18 | Suns +12 v. Hornets | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Charlotte enters this game in a big time funk having lost 5 straight games, and should not be DD favs against any team at the NBA in their current form not even the lowly Phoenix Suns. That was evident in a disheartening loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday night which will make getting up off the proverbial matt very difficult for the Hornets. The Hornets nasty D, makes them fade material as DD home chalk. The Hornets have allowed 121 or more points six times in their last 15 games. CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS L/13 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game.CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS L/13 playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Suns are 13-0 ATS L/13 covering by 9.6 ppg on the road off a game as a dog when they are off two double-digit ATS losses. The Suns were 9-4 SU in those games with non of the losses coming by more than 7 points.The Hornets are 1-18 SU and 2-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers. NBA Road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 62-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Phoenix Suns to cover |
|||||||
03-09-18 | Warriors -4 v. Blazers | 108-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
The Portland Trail Blazers' current eight-game winning streak began Feb. 14, when the Golden State Warriors visited here just before the all star break. The Blazers won that game by a 123-117 count, but will be hard pressed to do it again vs Golden State is 27-5 SU on the road this season with the average margin of victory coming by 7 ppg. NBA Home underdogs (PORTLAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 32-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 148-82 ATS L/21 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 58-10 SU winning by a combined average of 8.4 ppg game , which gives credence to us laying 4 points or less in this situation. Play on Golden State to cover |
|||||||
03-08-18 | 76ers v. Heat +1 | 99-108 | Win | 102 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The 76ers and Miami Heat have played three times already this season with the home team holding serve in each tilt, and I'm betting the status quo remains the same after tonight. Miami has won the last six times it has faced the 76ers at home. MIAMI is 20-8 ATS L/28 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign. The Heat are 18-0 ATS/SU off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and it is after the All-Star break with the wins coming by an average of 17 ppg. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are just 6-27 ATS L/21 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
|||||||
03-07-18 | Cavs v. Nuggets -2 | 113-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Cleveland will be out looking for payback when they meet in Denver on Wednesday night for a 126-117 loss they suffered at home to the Nuggets last week. But with that said, you don't always get what you want as the Rolling Stones song suggests. Tonight, I'm betting the young Nuggets despite of playing last night and looking disinterested in a loss to Dallas as road chalk, will be very motivated for a bounce back at home vs a Cavaliers side I'm betting they will be up for playing against and that they actually matchup well against according to my own system vs system analysis. Note: Nuggets are a well conditioned group and are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing with no rest. CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season and is 4-12 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season. CLEVELAND is 9-21 ATS versus below average defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season. Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
|
|||||||
03-07-18 | Jazz v. Pacers +1 | 104-84 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The schizophrenic Indiana Pacers are currently on a 3 game win streak, and have 7 wins in their L/9 and look very much like their revving up into top gear, and must be respected here on their own home floor where they have thrived going 22-11 SU this season. When they visited tonight's guests Utah back on Jan 15 the Pacers looked like they matched up well against their opponents, and despite of Jazz looking for revenge I'm betting they fall short. Note: Utah has lost 19 of their 31 road games this season.Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Meanwhile, the Jazz have won three in a row and are 15-2 in the last 17 games. But now on tired legs with this their 4th game in 7 days and short handed as they are expected to be without forward Derrick Favors, who is sidelined with neck spasms, their at a disadvantage. If Favors plays I, expecting he will be less 100%. QUOTE: "We're going to have a very difficult game at Indiana," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said. "We know that. They played well against us here and beat us pretty good (109-94 on Jan. 15). END QUOTE NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 44-211 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana Pacers to cover |
|||||||
03-06-18 | Nets +15 v. Warriors | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Golden State continues their quest for another NBA championship and are currently in top form having won five straight as they host the downtrodden Brooklyn Nets this Tuesday night. Despite of the Warriors over whelming fire power and superior record compared the the Brooklyn Nets recent meetings in this series ,have been competitive . The last time these teams played the Nets made the Warriors work hard for a 118-111 win at home in November. It must also be noted that six of their last seven games at Golden State have been decided by nine or fewer points, with one loss going to overtime. Recently despite of their continued futility the Nets have shown some fight, as their L/3 road losses have been decided by a total margin of 14 points ( 4.66 ppg). With that said, lets plug our noses, closes our eyes and quickly squeeze the proverbial trigger on the Nets to cover taking points. GOLDEN STATE is 8-19 ATS L/27 against Atlantic division opponents.Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.BROOKLYN is 30-20 ATS as an underdog this season. BROOKLYN is 8-1 ATS when playing against a top-tier team (Win Pct. 70% or better) this season. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (BROOKLYN) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are a long term quality wager, going 241-160 ATSL/21 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover |
|||||||
03-06-18 | Knicks v. Blazers -9 | 87-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
I don't make a habit of laying a lot of lumber with my NBA selections, but every now and than playing chalk makes sense. Right now NY is just playing out its schedule, and despite of a hungry group of bench players and G League scrubs getting a lot of court time they are still fade material vs a Portland side currently in top form, as is evident by winning 7 straight. The Blazers have also only lost once in their L/14 at home in the Moda Center where they consistently play their best hoops behind super star Damian Liilard. The Knicks have lost in 11 of their last 13 meetings with the Blazers, including a 103-91 defeat at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 27 and once again look like they will end up on the wrong side of a lopsided score. Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Knicks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. NEW YORK is 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season with the average margin of defeat coming by 12.6 ppg. NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-55 SU losing by an average of just under 10 ppg. Play on Portland to cover |
|||||||
03-05-18 | Bucks +3 v. Pacers | 89-92 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
The Bucks and Pacers go head to head for the second time in less than a week in Central Division action this Monday night . The last time they played it was a hard fought affair. Pacers managed to eek out a 103-96 win at Milwaukee despite of nearly blowing a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Now in the return bout, I'm expecting to the Bucks to have a good chance of returning the unsavory favor of dumping the Pacers in front of their own fans and more importantly get us the cover. It must be noted that the Bucks and their Greek Freak looked to be coming out of a mini slump when he provided his team with 35 points in a come from behind win vs Philadelphia last night . When this top tier baller is on his game, the Bucks are hard to defeat, and I'm betting he will be the catalyst for his team to cover in this spot. Yes, I know Indiana has played well of late, and off two consecutive road upsets. But in the past this has not be a good scenario for the Pacers as they are just 2-12 ATS L/14 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bucks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest.Pacers are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are just 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 4-28 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
|||||||
03-04-18 | 76ers v. Bucks +2 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
The Bucks enter this game against the Sixer's slumping ( 4 straight losses) but they are more than capable of turning things around, and have won or tied the last five season series with Philadelphia .Each team has won once on its home court already this season . QUOTE: "We can't worry about these last couple games," Middleton said. "I know they were big games for us; we lost them, we've been through it before. Now we've just got to bounce back, pull together and show the kind of team that we are." END QUOTE. With that said, I'm expecting a big time effort here from the Dr.Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Bucks in this spot. 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic. MILWAUKEE is 19-6 ATS L/25 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last few seasons.MILWAUKEE is 84-48 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses .aVERAGE COMPOSITE score: Bucks 99 Opp 99. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
|||||||
03-04-18 | Suns v. Hawks UNDER 224 | 112-113 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
These two rebuilding programs have gone through a lot of struggles this season, and both have looked a little winded here late in the campaign. A team that is particular tired are the young Suns, as was evident against Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday, falling 124-116 despite 39 points from emerging star Devin Booker. QUOTE: "I think we probably fatigued a little bit," Phoenix interim coach Jay Triano told reporters afterward. "I don't know if our guys are used to playing at that level for that long of a period of time, but that's what we'll get to." END QUOTE. Today here in Atlanta I'm expecting their tired legs to effect the Suns, and they won't be up to taking part in a run and gun affair, which is just fine for a Atlanta side that prefers a slower pace behind a 26th ranked offensive effecnicy rating. With that said, I'm betting we see the combined score of this affair to stay below the number. Under is 11-2 in Suns last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games. Under is 20-9 in Suns last 29 games following a straight up loss. Under is 17-8 in Suns last 25 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 vs. Western Conference. Under is 21-7 in Hawks last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. ATLANTA is 21-7 UNDER L/28 when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 196.8 ppg scored . PHOENIX is 16-7 UNDER L/23 after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored. NBA All teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA/PHOENIX) - in a game involving two struggling teams (25% to 40%), second half of the season are 38-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
03-03-18 | Jazz v. Kings +7 | 98-91 | Push | 0 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
The Kings enter this game in a positive state of mind and momentum on their sides as they come off a home victory. Sacramento's 116-111 overtime winner over the Brooklyn Nets ended a four-game home losing streak and a five-game skid overall. The Kings will face a Utah Jazz side off a revenge win last night vs Minnesota on tired legs and susceptible to being in a letdown situation vs a team that they could easily be over looking. Note: Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Jazz are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a home win against a division rival, on Saturday games are 17-42 SU L/5 seasons for 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
|||||||
03-03-18 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
The Spurs, have lost four of their past five games and seven of their last 10 trips to the hardwood, and are now in need of getting their ship righted and quickly before the post season arrives. Tonight against a Lakers side that they have revenge against for a 93-81 upset loss earlier this season, I expect Popovich and company to come out here with all guns blazing in the friendly confines of the AT & T Center where they own a 22-7 SU record . It must be noted that Popovich is a perfect 12-0 SU in his career vs Pacific division sides with revenge for a same season loss and once again looks to notch a win and more importantly a cover. Spurs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Lakers are 1-10 SU L/11 after playing in Miami. ( That's a place where a lot ballers go over board with extra curricular activities and hangovers for young groups like the Lakers are common.)
Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
|||||||
03-02-18 | Thunder v. Suns +8 | 124-116 | Push | 0 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The young Suns broke an 0-for-February run with a 110-102 victory at Memphis on Wednesday and now have a little momentum on their sides as they face the Oklahoma City Thunder this Friday night in Arizona. Phoenix took a 114-100 victory over Oklahoma City seven weeks ago , and strangely enough according to my system vs system power rankings matches up well against the Thunder. Considering how the Thunder consistently play down to lower tier opponents it will not be a difficult decision to take the points with home side in this spot. Suns are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series. OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-16 ATS as a road favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-11 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season.
NBA team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) are 26-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 10-34 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover |
|||||||
03-02-18 | Mavs v. Bulls +2 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Dallas has not had a good season, but has been especially bad on the road where they own a ugly record going just 7-23 SU. I know their opponents tonight the Chicago Bulls might not inspire bettors, but this young group Hoiberg has put on the floor are hungry for wins and are playing for recognition within the organization which makes them dangerous.
DALLAS is 0-7 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less this season( lost a 111-110 heartbreaker vs the Thunder last time out) .DALLAS is 0-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons . CHICAGO is 10-0 ATS in home games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more . Play on Chicago to cover |
|||||||
03-01-18 | Nets -1.5 v. Kings | 111-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
This wager I'm making on this game between the Brooklyn Nets and their hosts the Sacramento Kings is based on a old cliché which focuses in on the lesser of two evils concept. In this corner we have a bottom feeder and in the other corner another perennial loser or vice versa. However, despite of my less than flattering description of these two squads, one of them according to my power rankings has a decent edge, and must be considered viable side investment options
With. Brooklyn starting to get healthy with Forwards Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (14.2 points per game) and Caris LeVert (11.7 points) returning from extended side line duty this past Tuesday and in the process producing 21 and 24 points in their first two games , respectively the Nets look very much like they have the ability to take out their opponents here as visitors. I know that the Brooklyn lost to Sacramento at home earlier this season 104-99 back on Dec 20th, but with payback on the agenda and supped up lineup , I'm expecting the Brooklyn crew to make a positive mark in a revenge scenario vs a Kings team that is just 8-20 SU at home this season. BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent. SACRAMENTO is 2-10 ATS L/12 as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season. NBA Road favorites (BROOKLYN) - an explosive offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more are 61-28 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover |
|||||||
02-28-18 | Warriors v. Wizards +9 | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
The mighty Golden State Warriors visit the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night at Capital One Arena in a game that I'm betting will be a lot closer than the linesmakers may anticipate. The Wizards in their last trip to the hardwood took 107-104 victory in Milwaukee on Tuesday for their third win in four games since the All-Star break . Washington is 10-3 without injured point guard John Wall .In these teams' first meeting, the Warriors trailed by 10 at home after three quarters, but rallied for a 120-117 win Oct. 27. No body in this league matches up well against the Warriors, but from a system vs system stand point I'm betting the Wizards have an edge despite of playing last night. Washington has covered 10 of their L/13 overall. Golden State is just 14-16 ATS on the road this season.Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. WASHINGTON is 17-7 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS as an underdog this season. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are just 18-44 SU L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
|||||||
02-27-18 | Kings +12 v. Blazers | 99-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Sacramento despite of playing last night are viable underdogs in this spot vs Portland thanks to this line be over exaggerated by the lines-makers. The Kings lost 118-110 to Minnesota on Monday but have been competitive overall and have been in position in the fourth quarter to win their previous three contests, despite of suffering losses in those tilts. Previous to those games they beat Dallas. Note: Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on NO rest. The Kings have also covered 10 of their L/16 overall, while Portland has covered just 14 of 29 at home this season for sub. 500 ATS record as hosts. Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. SACRAMENTO is 36-13 ATS in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a lower tier defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 105 points or more are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
|||||||
02-27-18 | Bulls +10.5 v. Hornets | 103-118 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Charlotte enters this game playing some pretty good basketball at the moment, as their 4 game win streak would suggest. However, this Hornets teams is far from being consistent and slightly being over rated by the lines-makers tonight as home chalk.Meanwhile, the Bulls in a rebuilding season, are struggling mightily, but have been competitive enough to warrant being backed as DD dogs vs this type of team, based on my own system to system analysis . The Bulls are 2-0 against the Hornets this season and have won each of the last four meetings. Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bulls are 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings. CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS L/32 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS against Southeast division opponents this season.CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS L/12 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.CHARLOTTE is 2-16 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 4-17 ATS L/21 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread.CHARLOTTE is 1-9 ATS L/10 in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half dating back to last season. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (CHICAGO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting 21 or less free throws/game, on Tuesday nights are 46-15 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CHARLOTTE) - strong offensive team (102 PPG or better ) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 24-57 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. The Hornets are 0-18 SU/ 1-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers. Play on Chicago Bulls to cover |
|||||||
02-26-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | 96-85 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Houston has averaged 123 points during a current 12 win streak. However, the Jazz are a side that can present any team in the NBA some problems in their current form after winning 12 of their last 13 games. The Jazz have also held 10 of its last 13 foes below 100 points and deserve respect here in their own back yard. After playing last night, I expect the Rockets to be on tired legs and for the high altitude of Salt Lake City to be hard on them. Note: Houston is just 2-8 ATS L/10 with no rest, while the Jazz are 7-3 ATS as home dogs this campaign. Utah has been winning SU but not covering spreads regularly.... However, HC Snyder is 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. NBA teams (HOUSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are 51-93 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 65% for bettors on the blind. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-78 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors. NBA Home underdogs (UTAH) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 103-60 ATS L/5 seasons L/21 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Utah to cover |
|||||||
02-26-18 | Pacers v. Mavs +3 | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Tonight's Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks game features two teams operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum. Indiana has won 4 straight, while, the Mavericks are on a four-game losing streak . The Mavs have only notched 3 wins in their L/14 overall but Nine of the Mavericks' last 14 losses are by single digits, and they must not be underestimated as home dogs in this spot. DALLAS is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest. The Pacers are 0-13 ATS/SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 and it is after the All-Star break. losing SU by an average of 9.5 ppg. Play on Dallas to cover |
|||||||
02-26-18 | Magic +10.5 v. Thunder | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Orlando enters this tilt on a 5 game losing streak, but they have been competitive in their L/15 trips to the hardwood covering 10 times and only twice during that span have lost by more than 10 points. The Magic also beat their hosts tonight the Thunder earlier this season by a 121-108 count and actually matchup well against them from a system to system standpoint. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City despite of their top tier talent, have been largely inconsistent this season. This unbalanced basketball is exemplified on the ATS board where the Thunder have covered only 3 of their L/8 games. Tonight the up and down Oklahoma City hoops team now find themselves in a precarious spot as they enter this game in an emotional letdown mode after getting slapped around by Golden State 112-80 last time out and are susceptible to a down effort. Orlando is 4-1 ATS L/5 meetings in this series and have covered 5 straight here in Oklahoma City. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-10 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-20 ATS L/26 versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%or more this season. Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - lower tier rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have won SU 23 of the L/33 opportunities. NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 20-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Orlando to cover |
|||||||
02-25-18 | 76ers v. Wizards -2 | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
I have this way of going against the grain from time to time, and that's what I'm dong here this Sunday as I fade a 76ers team that owns the Eastern Conference's longest current winning streak ( 8 games) . Meanwhile, the Washington Wizards are 8-3 in its last 11 despite of playing without key cog John Wall to a knee injury are viable opponent for NBA opponents here at home in DC. The Wizards won three straight road games before getting smacked around by a 122-105 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, but will be now be ready for a bounce back performance on their own home floor. Note:WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. It must be noted that the Wizards seem to play their best hoops against top tier teams and have recent wins vs Oklahoma City, Toronto, and Cleveland and I'm betting the young Sixer's are next on their hit list. Washington has won the last seven home meetings with Philadelphia and 20 of the last 26. WASHINGTON is 15-7 ATS L/22 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season. NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 80-39 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
|||||||
02-25-18 | Rockets v. Nuggets UNDER 228 | 119-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Houston enters this game against Denver having won 11 straight games and have notched victories in 18 of their last 20 games. But will play without Eric Gordon (18.5ppg) which I'm betting effects their offensive flow here in the high altitude of the Rockies this evening. Meanwhile, Denver has won 10 of 13 and are 7-1 SU in February and could find the sledding tough behind their 17th ranked PACE vs a Houston team that can also play some solid D, as is evident by holding 4 of their L/9 opponents to under 99 points and ranked 9th in the league in defensive rating. Despite both teams current explosive forms , this line according to my own projections is slightly bloated to the upside and gives us a viable opportunity to cash taking an under stance. Under is 11-2 in Rockets last 13 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-4-1 in Rockets last 15 road games. HOUSTON is 22-10 UNDER L/32 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 217 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average score of 216.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER /HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 37-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 214 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-24-18 | Grizzlies v. Heat OVER 195.5 | 89-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
The Heat, are off a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans 124-123 in overtime on Friday night, and have lost eight of their past nine games. Needless to say the Heat will be exhausted here, and will not be able to play their usual physical brand of defensive basketball on tired legs. Note Miami as allowed 6 of their L/7 opponents to score 104 more points, allowing an average of 112.33 ppg in those tilts.Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Meanwhile, Memphis also on tired legs after paying last night continues down an ugly path, especially with their defensive play allowing 12 of their L/13 opponents to score 101 or more points, something I'm betting happens again in a more wide open game than the lines-makers expect. Over is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
MEMPHIS is 12-1 OVER L/13 in road games on Saturday games with a combined average score of 215.8 ppg scored. The over is 4-1 in the Grizzlies last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 road games.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami. MIAMI is 26-12 OVER in home games after allowing 115 points or more with a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 33-5 OVER L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
02-24-18 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 217.5 | 105-116 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Philadelphia plays their best defensive basketball at home this season , and in recent action have not allowed 5 of their L/8 opponents to score more than 98 points when playing as hosts. Overall leading up to the all star break the Sixers allowed an average of just 94.8 ppg in 5 games all wins and are currently ranked 4th in the league in Defensive effecnicy . They did take part in a high scoring affair in their first game after the break, but will now be prepared to clamp down defensively vs a inconsistent Orlando offense ( Ranked 19th in Off Effecnicy). I'm betting on a total combined score to remain on the low side of the total. PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER L/12 in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with a combined average of 203.7 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 20-11 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 41-11 and 6-0 this season UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
02-23-18 | Spurs +3.5 v. Nuggets | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
The San Antonio Spurs went into the all star break losing five of their last six games and now the pundits are jumping off the band wagon. I'm saying not so quick. This franchise has just to much pedigree and experience to be dismissed so easily and must be respected here tonight as well rested road underdogs. I know the experts are currently in love with the Denver Nuggets, after having won nine of their last 12, but this is still a team that has proven itself inconsistent and needs a little more positive momentum to be looked upon with such fondness from the media. I understand we live in the world of instant gratification and what have you done for me lately attitude, but I'm still a believer in Popovich and company and that get my backing here tonight . The Nuggets did beat the Spurs in their last meeting on Feb 13 by a 117-109 count, but the Spurs are 8-3 SU/ATS with same season revenge in this series, and his Spurs are 11-3 SU when playing on 6 or more days rest. Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Spurs are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Denver. NBA Favorites (DENVER) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 59-104 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind. Play on San Antonio to cover |
|||||||
02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | 110-103 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
After almost a weeks rest both these very capable offensive sides will be fresh and ready to run and gun here as they prepare to start the stretch drive towards the play offs in a game that my projections suggest will eclipse this number. Cleveland Ranks 5th in offensive output in the NBA and 27th in points allowed and 29th in defensive effecnicy . Leading up to the all star game the Cavs registered 140,123, 121, 120 in offensive production 4 straight games. Washington ranks 9th in offensive effecnicy and 15th in points allowed. Washington has scored 101 or more ppg in 10 straight games and have allowed 11 of their L/13 opponents to put 100 or more points on the board.
NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND/WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 28-4 OVER L/5 seasons and a 6-0 so far this season for dual 88% and 100% conversion rates for bettors. Play OVER |
|||||||
02-15-18 | Nuggets v. Bucks OVER 212 | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
With this being the last game before both sides launch their mini vacations during the all star break, I expect both will feel energized and ready to run and gun tonight, as they also know an extended rest is on the way. Denver enters this game having won 5 of their L/6 behind an offense that is clicking on all cylinders, averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Bucks also rank 6th (110.6) in the league in offensive efficiency and 22nd ( 109.7) in defensive efficiency Meanwhile, Milwaukee despite of being inconsistent, are ranked 12th in the league in offensive effecnicy rating (108.9 ppg) and 16th in defensive efficiency ( 108.7 ) and in this type of matchup vs an explosive offense will have to speed up their pace, which in turn will have them go above their current ratings, which will translate in to a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect. DENVER is 38-21 OVER L/59 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 223.7 ppg scored.DENVER is 22-8 OVER L/30 in road games after a combined score of 225 points with a combined average of score of 222 ppg scored. DENVER is 31-18 OVER L/49 in non-conference games with a combined average of 222.4 ppg scored.Malone is 40-19 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Central.Over is 14-4 in Bucks last 18 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
02-15-18 | Nuggets +3 v. Bucks | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing decent ball since Jason Kidd was fired, but I'm still not completely sold on them going forward. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are also in top form and have won 5 of their L/6 overall via an explosive offense averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Nuggets according to my power rankings are playing their best hoops of the season and must be respected here as underdogs. Note: Denver is 15-2 ATS L/17 as an underdog in this series. From a SRS perspective Denver owns a +0.88 mark while Milwaukee clicks in at -0.18. ( SRS =Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average) With that said, we have value with taking points here. Milwaukee is just 33-67 ATS at home as chalk in non conference home tilts of late. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 28-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
|||||||
02-14-18 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 225.5 | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
The Warriors have gone 3-0 in a recent home stand in which they shot 55.3 percent from the field and 45.1 from beyond the arc while averaging 124 points ppg.
The Dubs now lead the NBA in scoring (115.8), field goal percentage (51.1), 3-point percentage (39.3), free throw percentage (80.9), assists per game (44.4) and blocks per game (7.95). Needless to say their offensive juggernaut, and have said, they want to finish off strong heading into the All star break which should see them running and gunning against the Portland Blazers here again tonight. How will the Blazers deal with what's coming their way. Here's a quote fro Blazers star D.Liiliard that tells me the game plan for this meeting. QUOTE: "You can play great defense and they're still going to make shots, they're that good. You have to be able to put points up. You have to score with them. You have to have some resistance, and you have to make them work for everything they get. You have to attack them back -- use your offense as defense." END QUOTE: With that said, I'm betting on a back forth offensive slugfest here this evening in a tilt that flys over the Total. PORTLAND is 16-4 OVER L/20 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season during the last few seasons with a combined average score of 228 ppg getting scored.GOLDEN STATE is 11-0 OVER after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35% or less over the last few seasons with a combined average of 233.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND/GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or more ), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
|||||||
02-14-18 | Lakers +5 v. Pelicans | 117-139 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Despite losing 130-123 at Dallas on Saturday, the Lakers are playing some very competitive basketball of late , and have won 12 of their l/17 games and have upward momentum on their sides and are up trending in my power rankings. The Lakers newly acquired point guard Isaiah Thomas came off the bench Saturday in his Lakers' debut and scored 22 points and had six assists in 31 minutes and is a very nice addition to this young team. Meanwhile, New Orleans, are still adjusting to playing without DeMarcus Cousins, and must not be over estimated in their abilities despite of upsetting Detroit Pistons last time out (118-103). It must also be noted that NEW ORLEANS is 9-22 ATS L/31 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog . Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Road team is 30-14 ATS in the last 44 meetings LA LAKERS are 14-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS as a home favorite over the last few seasons. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
|||||||
02-14-18 | Clippers v. Celtics -4.5 | 129-119 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The Clippers have surprisingly won four of their last five games and are 4-2 since a trade sent Blake Griffin to the Detroit Pistons. Needless to say the Boston Celtics will not be over looking them despite of this Clippers team going into rebuild mode. Considering both teams rosters and current systems, the head to head matchup favors the home team by 7 points according to my own numbers giving us value on a basic 5 point home advantage line. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic. BOSTON is 20-7 ATS L/27 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 31-2 SU for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin deficit clicking in at 10.6 ppg. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
|||||||
02-14-18 | Pacers -4.5 v. Nets | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
The streaky Pacers look for another win before the all star break Wednesday night when they visit the struggling Brooklyn Nets The Pacers during a recent 19-game stretch (13-6 SU), are up trending in my power ranks after allowing 101.7 points and 31.2 percent 3-point shooting. Offensively, they are averaging 106.6 points and shooting 49.1 percent. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is in a downward swoon, and have lost 10 of their L/11. The average margin of defeat in the 10 losses games has been by a whopping 11.6. ppg and they are once again fde material here in this spot.
BROOKLYN is 3-13 ATS L/16 in home games after 6 or more consecutive losses . INDIANA is 23-11 ATS L/34 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the favorite going 5-1 ATS L/6 meetings. Indiana has won six straight from Brooklyn and 14 of the last 18 meetings. NBA team (BROOKLYN) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 19-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana to cover |
|||||||
02-13-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 207 | 109-117 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Two banged up teams the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets go head to head tonight in the Mile High City. The Spurs after playing last night in Utah wont; have the legs to run and gun tonight, and with key offensive weapons Leonard and Aldridge sidelined don't have as much scoring punch as usual. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets , continue to play without Paul Milsap, and have a bevy of walking wounded that are playing at less than 100%, and welcome the all star break that is on the horizon. This above combination of circumstances I'm betting will result in a much lower combined score than the lines-makers expect. SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 200.6 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.2 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 21-7 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season of 194.7 ppg scored and 13-2 UNDER in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season with a combined average of 191.7 ppg going on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 50-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-13-18 | Cavs v. Thunder -1 | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Cleveland has won three consecutive games, scoring 121 or more points in each and now the pundits are all piling back on to the bandwagon. I'm a believer in the Cavaliers ability to continue their upward momentum, as well over the long haul, but I'm betting this is a bad spot for them. Meanwhile, Oklahoma city is expected to have both Russell Westrook and Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup tonight, after both sat two games with a ankle injury. Both these top tier players presence , and the positive energy involved with taking on a championship contender will have the Thunder ready to perform in what is a very tough venue for visitors to play in . Oklahoma City has won the L/2 meetings in this series home and away. CLEVELAND is 8-22 ATS L/30 revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points. CLEVELAND is 16-34 ATS L/50 versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CLEVELAND is 4-18 ATS L/22 in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS L/18 in non-conference games this season. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are just 13-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
|||||||
02-13-18 | Cavs v. Thunder UNDER 222 | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
The last time these teams played they took part in wild 148-124 shootout, that saw the Thunder shoot 58%+ FG, and the Cavs 51%.. However, it seems both coaches were not happy with their own defenses, especially the Cavs Lue, and now I expect he makes sure his team is ready to be more physical, and more defensively responsible in transition, which I'm betting makes this a slower game than many expect. CLEVELAND in their L/21 in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more have seen a combined average score of 217.2 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-8 L/29 UNDER against Central division opponents with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-8 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 220. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road win are 42-14 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 755 conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.7 ppg. Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-13-18 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 222.5 | 126-108 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
We all now how explosive Houston's offense is, but many do not notice that they are defensively efficient , as they rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. ie Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. Recently the Rockets have been tough on opposing offenses holding 3 of their L/6 opponents to 97 points or less. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of taking part in a lot of higher scoring affairs this season, remarkably owns the 23rd ranked pace, and tonight, I expect they will be even more deliberate in their approach, vs a powerful offense. With that said, and according to both teams expected style of play, and road vs home scenarios I'm betting on a total score that does not eclipse this total. Rockets are 5-0-1 UNDER last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-3-1 in Rockets last 14 road games.Under is 34-15-2 in Rockets last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season and 7-0 on the road with a combined average score of the away games clicking in at 206.2 ppg. HC' DAntoni is 25-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average score of 213.9 ppg on the board. HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 32-11 UNDER L/43 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or over ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-12-18 | Suns +15.5 v. Warriors | 83-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
This selection is based on something I refer to as the fearless factor. Golden State is expected by all who watch the NBA to step all over the Phoenix Suns tonight in their matchup at Oakland. But the Suns with nothing to lose , completely out of a play off spot, and in deep vs the leagues defending champion, will play this game loosely and with confidence. Meanwhile, the Dubs despite of saying they want to finish this current string of games strongly before the all star break, will have problems being motivated here tonight, and have a history of playing down to lower tier teams levels. On the season Golden State is just 11-15 ATS at home, and overall have failed to cover 5 of 8 division games this season and 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
The Suns 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. It must also be noted that since the Suns acquired Elfrid Payton from Orlando at the trade deadline they should be playing at a much faster pace which was evident in Saturday's 123-113 home loss to Denver, a game in which the Suns posted season highs in field goal percentage (54.8) and points in the paint (66). I'm projecting their numbers will be better than expected here again tonight, which will result in the Suns getting the cover. GOLDEN STATE is 1-9 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season.PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games off a home loss by 10 points or more. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more. are 23-56 L/21 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover |
|||||||
02-12-18 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 196.5 | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
San Antonio is banged up with some key injuries but still have enough talent to put some points on the board here and keep track with the red hot Utah Jazz a team that is averaging 117.6 ppg in offense over the L/7 games during their 9 game win streak. Considering the Jazz played last night I doubt they will be prepared to play a lot of defense here and I'm anticipating a much more wide open game because of this. With that said, I'm recommending we take an over stance in this spot. UTAH is 21-7 OVER L/28 against Southwest division opponents with a combined average of 204.5 ppg on the scoreboard. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 OVER L/19 with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing on back-to-back days are 37-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 201 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
|||||||
02-12-18 | Knicks +11.5 v. 76ers | 92-108 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
The Knicks, who lost All-Star center/forward Kristaps Porzingis for the season to a torn left ACL last week are now looked upon as a downtrodden group that does not deserve any respect. While that maybe partially true, thanks to their overall horrid W/L record, this team still has some fight left in them as players look to solidify their standing on the team and future paydays. They always say pro sports is all about the money, and it is, so the Knicks wont stop playing hard, as very few of them on this team have any guarantees in this league going forward. The Knicks are not just going to lye down and take a nap, but instead I expect will fight even harder. Tonight, I'm betting their being under rated vs a 76ers side that despite of being a lot better than in previous seasons, is still a side that is young, with consistency still being a problem with these talented kids. . So needless to say Its a hard stretch for me to suddenly see them listed as 12 plus point favs, against anyone in the NBA even here at home .I know the Knicks played last night and the Sixer's and their fans have recently fed off the energy associated with the Eagles winning the Super Bowl, but that's now fading and when you put out that much emotional energy its sometimes hard to keep playing at a high level, especially against a beat up team like the Knicks that they are probably overlooking. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance here and take the dogs to cover on a slightly bloated line. 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The 5 meetings in this series have seen 3 games decided by 1 point , one game by 3 , and their most recent game by 7 points. PHILADELPHIA is 4-18 ATS L/22 in home games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots .NEW YORK is 21-10 ATS L/31 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.
Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
|||||||
02-11-18 | Mavs +13.5 v. Rockets | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Houston enters this game against visiting Dallas having won its seventh straight game with a 130-104 blowout of the Denver Nuggets on Friday. But its interesting to note the Rockets are just 2-11 ATS L/13 in home games after a blowout win by 20 points or more. The Rockets also have a tendency of playing down to their opponents, and are just 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.HOUSTON is also 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and are slightly over valued considering how they seem to do just enough to get victories vs teams likes this as they save their energy for bigger fish. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of having a down season, are still capable of being competitive despite of playing last night ( beat LAL 130-123) and are my recommendation getting points in this spot Note:. Mavericks have covered 4 of their L/5 in back to backs, and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Rockets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. DALLAS is 14-6 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a loss by 10 points or more are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
|||||||
02-11-18 | Kings +13 v. Wolves | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The Sacramento Kings are a young team, but they have a great deal of energy and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this DD number as road dogs here in Minnesota tonight. The Kings have recently pulled off upsets on the road against the Heat and Pelicans and have a never say die attitude. Meanwhile, MINNESOTA is just 7-17 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign and 12-23 ATS when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
|||||||
02-10-18 | Spurs +11 v. Warriors | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
I know that the San Antonio Spurs are a little banged up with key cog Leonard out of the lineup , however, I'm betting their still viable underdogs here on a line that according to my own projections is a little bloated, thanks to the defending champion Golden State Warriors being a public team. The Warriors are just 21-31-2 ATS this season, and have continually failed to produce covers for their backers, thanks to the exaggerated lines attached to their tilts. I know they clobbered the Spurs earlier this season on the road by a 112-92 mark, but lately the champs have looked a little tired and maybe just floating into the all star break as they look preserve energy for the stretch run. Meanwhile, Popovich and company are a group looking for revenge here, and probably feel a little disrespected by being pegged DD dogs. ( By the way despite of what NBA players and coaches say they do take the occasional peak a vegas lines) SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS L/11 in road games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots . Golden State is 4-16 ATS facing teams with same season revenge for a 20 point or more loss. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a defense allowing (102 PPG or more ) are 29-8 ATS L5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 41-16 L/5 seasons, for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
|||||||
02-10-18 | Bucks v. Magic +5.5 | 111-104 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
The Orlando Magic are playing some very good basketball at the moment and enter this game against the Milwaukee Bucks with three straight wins. What is even more important as far as we are concerned is the Magic's ability to be very competitive as they have covered 13 of their L/15 overall. It took some time but this team is jelling behind a patient coaching staff, and management that has not been hard on this young group. The Magic are playing well with the duo D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack as their primary point guards after Elfrid Payton was traded to Phoenix at the deadline. With Augustin as a starter the Magic have flourished going 6-2 SU with him in the starting lineup. During a current 6-5 11 game run the Magic are averaging 107.6 points on 48 percent shooting while allowing 105.4 points and dangerous opponents vs a tired Milwaukee team that looked exhausted last night in a physical loss to the Heat (91-85), and will have very little left in the tank in this spot. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. MILWAUKEE is 9-19 ATS L/28 against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.Bucks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando and 1-4 ATS L/5 meetings overall. Play on Orlando to cover |
|||||||
02-09-18 | Hornets v. Jazz -5 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The Utah Jazz are playing some very good basketball at the moment, having won 7 straight and despite of making a couple of trades at the deadline, are still looking like a viable side to back in this spot vs visiting Charlotte. Yesterday, the Jazz dumped one of their top scoring guards Hood, for an equally gifted Jae Crowder from Cleveland, a two way player who fits in perfectly into their hard nosed defensive system. I'm expecting the Jazz not to skip a beat. Meanwhile, Charlotte, has lost two straight, and are off a exhausting OT tilt vs Portland last night, and now going in to the thin air of Salt Lake City should have problems competing as this game progresses, making them fade material in this spot. UTAH is 10-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.CHARLOTTE is 6-16 ATS (as an underdog this season.UTAH is 13-5 ATS L/18 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. NBA Home teams (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights are 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
|||||||
02-09-18 | Bucks v. Heat -1.5 | 85-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
As this season has progressed I have gained a lot of respect for the Miami Heat, and their work ethic behind key cog Hassan Whiteside. With newly acquired Dwayne Wade coming home to finish his career after getting traded yesterday, and some desperation after a 5 game losing streak, I'm expecting a little extra jump in the legs of this Heat team, and for and from them to come out of this with a victory vs the Giannis "Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo and company. Note: Milwaukee is short handed .. G Delavedova and G Malcolm Brogdon (torn left quad) are out with injuries. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L/19 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign.Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record MIAMI is 17-8 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 78-21 SU L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 57-99 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 61% for bettors on the blind. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
|||||||
02-09-18 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Rockets | 104-130 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Houston has been in top form almost all season, and despite of a current 6 game win streak enter this game a little banged up with starting forward Ryan Anderson (ankle) and reserve guard Eric Gordon (back) on the bench along with key starter Ariza and will be short handed here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, winners of three straight and six of eight, are also currently in good form, and out to looking to avenge a loss to Houston earlier this season. Considering the Rockets situation and heavy schedule of late, I'm making a contrarian move here and backing Denver to cover the number in a spot play.
Play on Denver to cover |
|||||||
02-09-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers -4.5 | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
The Sixers enter this game off a commanding win vs the Washington Wizards 115-102 on Tuesday, their second victory in their last three games and will primed to get another win here tonight on their own home floor vs a New Orleans Pelicans team that have gone 1-4 since All-Star center/forward DeMarcus Cousins went down for the season with a acchilies injury. Philly is a really energized city at the moment after the Eagles snashtched the Super Bowl , and I'm betting that flow translates on to the hardwood tonight for the Sixers. Add to that the Sixers also have revenge on board for a road loss to the Pelicans back on Dec 10, and you have a postive situation to bet into tonight with the home side.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-7 ATS L/22 in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, in February are 15-106 L/21 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
|||||||
02-08-18 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 221 | 103-121 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
The Dallas Mavericks visit a tired looking Golden State Warriors team on Thursday night that has lost 3 of their L/4 overall. The last time the Mavs came to town the Warriors took a 112-97 win and I'm expecting a similar output tonight. Note: Dallas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 while, the Dubs have gone under in 3 straight tilts. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 UNDER L/10 when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored.DALLAS is 15-7 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg going on the board. DALLAS is 21-11 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 19-7 UNDER L/26 after 3 or more consecutive unders dating back to last season with the combined average score of 215.3 ppg going on the board. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or better) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 27-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent free throw shooting team - making 80% or more of their free throws, in February games are 43-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
02-08-18 | Hornets v. Blazers OVER 213 | 103-109 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Portland as the season has progressed has reverted back to their old run and gun style of play and has improved its offensive production now ranking 15th in the NBA in offensive rating (105.2). The Blazers' defense has also gotten progressively worse and after being in the top 10 for a long time and are now ranked 11th at 104.9. ppg. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 18th in points allowed, and 14th in offense, with a combined average of 212.8 ppg scored. (106.4 ppg in both categories). From matchup perspective and a projections system I have used for 14 years, I'm expecting both sides to play a faster paced game then usual, and for the this combined score to eclipse the number. My projection has both sides scoring more than 105 points each- Note: PORTLAND is 20-0 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board.CHARLOTTE is 49-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game with a combined average of 230.3 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER L/34 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average score of 226.4 ppg clicking in on the board. PORTLAND is 12-2 OVER L/14 after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots with a combined average score of 223.3 ppg being registered. Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons HC Stotts is 8-0 OVER L/8 vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored.
Play OVER |
|||||||
02-08-18 | Celtics v. Wizards -1.5 | 110-104 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
The Washington Wizards despite of not having All-Star John Wall in the lineup conjured up a five-game winning streak before abruptly having it end in their last trip to the hardwood. The victorious run included wins vs Oklahoma City and Toronto. Meanwhile, their opponents the Boston Celtics also had their , four game win streak ended when they were beaten up on by Toronto last time out 111-91 thud. Now these teams will both be looking to get back on track. Both according to my power rankings are pretty evenly matched, with home court advantage being the difference maker and their ability to outduel their opponents via top tier ball movement and balanced scoring . WASHINGTON is 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last few seasons. Washington has won 5 of the L/7 meetings at home in this series SU. Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more are 8-54 SU L/21 seasons for a87% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
|||||||
02-08-18 | Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 213 | 88-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
The Knicks enter this game having lost four games in a row and seven of their last nine and are obviously in bad form, and to make matters worse they have to play without a key offensive cog because of an injury to Porzingis and also to guard Ron Baker (right shoulder surgery) and center Enes Kanter (oral surgery). If Tim Hardaway Jr. plays for NYK he has been fairly unproductive and rusty and won't help their offensive cause much. This will of course effect the Knicks offensive flow tonight vs one of the leagues top teams the Toronto Raptors , which in turn will effect the total combined score of this tilt in downward fashion. The Knicks know they have to find a way to slow this game down and make it physical, and that's what I'm betting they will do which will aid us in cashing an under bet here. The Four most recent meetings in this series have all not eclipsed this Total. Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 overall.Under is 8-2 in Knicks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 8-2 in Knicks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic. TORONTO is 16-7 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored. TORONTO is 8-1 UNDER after a division game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg going on the board. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors . Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-08-18 | Hawks v. Magic +2 | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Orlando is play very good basketball at the moment, winning 3 of their L/4 games and are off beating the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.Since a 130-113 defeat at Washington, the Magic are at .500 ( 5-5) in their last 10 games. Four of the losses during that run are by single digits and four victories came against teams with above.500 records Meanwhile. Atlanta has also won 2 straight, but my own power rankings suggest the Magic have the edge on their own home court. With that said, I am recommending we take the points in this spot. Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.Hawks are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Hawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 53-96 L/21 seasons for a 65% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Orlando to cover |
|||||||
02-07-18 | Wolves v. Cavs +4 | 138-140 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
It's official the lines-makers have finally thrown in the towel on the Cleveland Cavaliers after the Cavs completely embarrassed themselves in a 116-88 loss to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday. Absolutely pitiful is the best two words I can use to describe that effort . It truly sickening to watch a talented team like this implode, which seems to be the case as HC Tyronn Lue can't seem to stomach watching this calamity unfold, and has left the last two games at some point because of undisclosed illness. Despite of that last nasty effort, I'm still grasping on to my power rankings that suggest we have a live home dog here with what still must be considered a championship calibre team. With pride on the line, and revenge on board for a Cleveland's loss to the Wolves on Jan. 8, in Minnesota via a ugly 127-99 beating I'm actually going to recommend we take the points here. I know this is a contrarian viewpoint, but my convictions about this team, are still at least for now solid . With the Cavs showcasing a 19-7 SU record at home this season, I'm betting they dig deep here in play an inspired game in front of their fans , and get us the cover. QUOTE: "Just got to keep pushing," said LeBron James, who scored only 10 points the last time the Cavs played Minnesota. "Stay positive, keep pushing. Try to get better. That's where it's at for me. We've got another opportunity tomorrow playing against a very good team that beat us up pretty good in Minnesota before. We look forward to the challenge. We've got to come out with the right game plan, we've got to come out with a sense of urgency and we've got to play the game the right way and try to sustain some good basketball for 48 minutes." END QUOTE: Minnesota has lost 4 of their L/7 overall, and is 7-17 ATS L/24 in road games in non-conference games .Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. Home underdogs (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. are 33-9 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover |
|||||||
02-07-18 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +7.5 | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
These two teams the Jazz and Grizzlies are currently playing at the opposite ends of the proverbial performance spectrum of late, with Utah on a 6 game win streak while the Grizzlies are on 4 game losing streak. Despite of the their current discrepancies , their is value backing the home dog on what is a slightly bloated number. I know the Grizzlies played last night, but they did not exert much energy, in a lifeless loss to Atlanta, and recently have shown resiliency and good conditioning as they are 4-0 ATS L/4 back to backs, and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 7-2-1 ATS L/10 at home overall. Meanwhile the Jazz are Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. This ticket is not based on which side is better at the moment, but is based on the mathematics associated with spread betting, and according to my numbers and power rankings we have value taking points. Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. NBA teams like (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are just 40-77 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
|||||||
02-07-18 | Rockets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
The Rockets are off a win in Brooklyn last night by a 123-113 count and now prepare to visit the Miami Heat on Wednesday night at AmericanAirlines Arena . The Rockets now on tired legs just won't have as much energy to run and gun as they usually do . Add to that they will play a very physical defensive side, lead by Hassan Whiteside, that are well equipped to slow the Rockets down. With that said, I won't be surprised if the visitors produce below their season offensive average in this spot. On the flipside, the Heat ranked 28th in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency, and off a couple of dubious lackluster defensive performances, will be primed to bounce back and play solid D, in a building where they have held 3 of their L/4 opponents to 91 point or less. Houston must also not be underestimated in their ability to play solid D, as they have held 5 of their L/10 opponents to 99 or less points and rank 9th in the league in defensive rating. The above combinations bode well for this score staying on the low side of the Total. Note: Miami in 7 of their L/15 overall have seen them and their opponents fail to eclipse the 99 point plateau in a game. MIAMI is 8-0 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 193.2 ppg scored. The last two meetings between these teams here in Miami have remained on the low side of the number. Under is 10-2 in Rockets last 12 overall.Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 road games.Under is 35-15-2 in Rockets last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 40-11 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-06-18 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Hawks | 82-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Both the Memphis Grizzlies and their hosts the Atlanta Hawks have been highly inconsistent this season, with neither probably inspiring many bettors to back them. But in a game involving two bottom feeders, one side the ( Grizzlies) are the lesser of two evils according to my power rankings and head to head matchup analysis. When these teams played on Dec. 15. the Grizzlies defeated the Hawks 96-94 in Memphis , and once again look like a viable side to back in this spot. ATLANTA is 1-13 ATS L/14 in home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread dating back to last season. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover |
|||||||
02-06-18 | Bucks v. Knicks +1.5 | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
The Knicks enter this game frustrated and embarrassed after blowing what looked like a sure win last time out, as they gave up a 5 point lead with under 2 min lefts and lost to Atlanta . Now completely dejected and with nothing to lose, I expect a all out effort from a side looking to get some pride back. Key Trend: Knicks are 5-0 ATS l/5 after a loss. QUOTE: "I can't even process that we lost," Knicks leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis told reporters after the game. "I can't believe it. It was our game. It was 100 percent our game. Stuff happened quick, and boom, it was over. ... We're just not there yet as a team. We keep losing these games." END QUOTE: I know the Knicks don't inspire many bettors, but considering their current mood, and the fact they actually matchup well vs the Bucks actually makes them decent options in this spot. Note: When these teams played last week the Bucks squeaked out a 92-90 vs the Knicks at home , but now with this game now in NYC could get easily get hi jacked in MSG in the rematch tonight. ( The Knicks are outrebounding Bucks this season, 44.4 to 39.0, and the Bucks rank 19th in the NBA in points per game (104.7) and 11th in points allowed (104.9). The Knicks are right behind the Bucks in both categories ranking 20th in points per game (104.1) and 13th in points allowed at 105.5. Milwaukee has a SRS of - 0.28 vs NYK -1.69 . Bucks are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Underdog is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings and Bucks have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 visits to NY to play the Knicks. Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo left last game, is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs New York ( Foot ) but is still operating at less than 100% tonight. NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS L/20 after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 18-30 ATS L/48 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games . NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more are 55-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
|||||||
02-05-18 | Bulls +2.5 v. Kings | 98-104 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Two cellar dwellers go head to head tonight in the NBA. The Bulls are near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The Kings are at the bottom of the Western Conference. But according to my power rankings one side is the lesser of two evils and that is the Chicago Bulls, a hoops franchise that despite of rebuilding has played well for long stretch's this season and have gained my respect. I know their leading scorer(Mirotic) was traded to the Pelicans, in exchange for forward Omer Asik and guard Jameer Nelson, but with key cog Markkanen back in the lineup after a week off (personal) they will have fresh legs in the lineup and will be dangerous underdogs. With that said, the Kings have not won on their own home floor since a 106-98 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Jan. 6 and are weak chalk here again tonight . Chicago has won 4 of their L/5 visits to Sacramento and are 2-0 here in recent meetings. SACRAMENTO is 4-14 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHICAGO is 14-5 ATS L/19 versus struggling foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season.CHICAGO is 18-9 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors, and NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are a bankroll expanding 70-25 ATS L/21 seasons for a long term 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago to cover |
|||||||
02-05-18 | Jazz +2 v. Pelicans | 133-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
The Jazz have won five in a row, including their last four road games, and they upset the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night 120-111 and are currently operating at a top level of performance. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have lost three of four games since star center DeMarcus Cousins suffered a season-ending left Achilles tear and are now struggling to find cohesiveness as they adjust to his absence. From a matchup perspective in both sides current for the Jazz have the edge.The Jazz have won four of the last five against New Orleans and get the nod again as road pups. Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Orleans. UTAH is 9-1 ATS L/10 after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. UTAH is 15-4 ATS L/19 in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS L/69 as a home favorite. Pelicans HC Gentry is 9-24 favorite ATS L/33 where they attempted 90 or more shots in all games in 2 straight games . Snyder is 21-9 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home in his career. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, second half of the season are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Utah to cover |
|||||||
02-05-18 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 215.5 | 133-109 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Utah is suddenly playing top tier hoops again as is evident by 5 straight wins. Their current top form must be attributed to their ability to play a very strong brand of defensive basketball that has resulted in allowing 4 of their L/5 opponents to score less than 99 points. This type of D, has been a mainstay of Jazz basketball for a while, and their now in a groove and closely following their regiment. I know that the Pelicans have continued to play fairly high scoring games, despite of losing DeMarcus Cousns to an injury, but their flow I'm betting will be inhibited tonight by a side that knows exactly how to slow opponents down, behind a 25th ranked pace and the 4th best D in the league. Utah HC Snyder is 28-15 UNDER L/43 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 194.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-05-18 | Wizards v. Pacers UNDER 213.5 | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Washington enters this game starting to shore up their defensive play and have held 3 of their L/6 opponents under the 98 point mark and overall rank in the upper half of the NBA defensive numbers . Meanwhile, Indiana ha held 8 of their L/16 opponents to 99 points or less behind the 17th ranked pace. With that said, and considering my own power ranking matchup projections the lines-makers are slightly over weighted on the Total and thus I'm betting we have value with an under wager in this spot. Indiana has gone under 17 of their L/28 home games this season. Washington has gone under in 17 of their 26 road games during this campaign. The combined average score of Wizards road games clicks in at a combined average of 210 ppg, while Indiana's home games have seen a combined average of 211.3 ppg. The two most recent games these teams have played here in Indiana have not eclipsed this total, and I'm once again betting on this Number not being breached. WASHINGTON is 16-7 UNDER L/23 after a game where they covered the spread this season with a combined average of 209.2 ppg scored. r INDIANA is 25-9 UNDER L/34 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average 205.3 ppg scored. INDIANA is 11-3 UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored.INDIANA is 19-8 UNDER L/27 at home when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 208 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (WASHINGTON) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 55-20 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-04-18 | Blazers +2 v. Celtics | 96-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Portland has been playing some highly competitive hoops of late and have won 7 of their L/9 games and have only failed to cover 1 of their L/8 games overall. The Trail Blazers saw their four-game winning streak end abruptly last time out in a 130-105 loss at Toronto on Friday, but will now be ready to bounce back in a big way vs a Celtics side playing without injured Kyrie Irving. The Blazers have scored 100 points in 17 straight games, and matchup well here vs a side has suddenly become defensively deficient of late holding only 2 of their L/10 opponents to under 100 points. |
|||||||
02-03-18 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 221 | 107-118 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
New Orleans after losing DeMarcus Cousins for the seasons with a Achilles injury are now Short-handed going in to this tilt against the Wolves . The Pelicans did manage to shore up their bench by acquiring Forward Nikola Mirotic from the Bulls and is expected to make his debut for New Orleans tonight. But his presence I'm betting slows down the offensive flow of the Pelicans that they had with Anthony and Cousins patrolling the hardwood. From my own projections which considers the new personnel I'm estimating that the Pelicans will score in the 100 point range , and attempt between 81 and 87 shots, which has resulted in them combining with their opponents to average 206.8 ppg in the recent past. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of being able to put points on the board in bunches, have shown that they have the flashes of having the ability to play solid defense as well, behind the 24th ranked pace in the league, which has resulted in them going under in 4 straight games, allowing two of their L/4 opponents to 97 and 87 points respectively. The combination of Minnesota's concerted focus on playing better D, and the Pelicans getting acclimated to playing without key cogs and new pieces will culminate in tilt that stays under the total. NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 UNDER L/10 in road games versus teams - allowing an overall shooting pct defense of 46% or worse - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign, with the combined average score of 207.9 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog with a combined average of 199.6 ppg scored. ( The Pelicans upset Thunder 114-110 L/time out) MINNESOTA is 13-3 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 26-4 OVER L/21 seasons, for a 87% conversion rate for bettors ( with a combined average of 210.6 ppg going on the board). Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-03-18 | Warriors -5 v. Nuggets | 108-115 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Denver enters this game having played three straight grueling games, with their last game resulting in a last second 127-124 buzzer beater win vs Oklahoma City. Now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state, I'm betting they have problems dealing with a Golden State team that they may meet in the first round of the play offs. The Warriors also aware of the possible post season implications, will now take the time I'm betting to deliver a message and knock down a fragile Nuggets group still dealing with confidence issues, after making a habit of squandering leads this season, including the win they took last time out. There is also a low possibility , that the Warriors will not be prepared to play here tonight, as Denver has played them tough on occasion in the past including shocking them by 96-81 back on Dec 3 at home. With that said, I'm also betting the Warriors would love to shovel out some pay back here tonight and leave this building and their fans in a shambles via smack down performance. Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific.Road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.Warriors are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Golden States SRS - is 8.21 vs Denver SRS - 0.50 .( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.) GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 ATS L/19 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season. NBA Road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-2 ATS L/21 seasons for a 92% conversion rare winning SU by an average of 11.1 pgg. Play on Golden State Warriors to cover |
|||||||
02-03-18 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 231 | 120-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
When we think of the Houston Rockets we get the image of a run and gun offensive team that plays with one way reckless abandon. While their are times when they do look like this kind of side, overall this is not a true picture of what they have been trying to achieve or the way they play . Overall the Rockets are ranked 10th in the league in defensive efficiency, and on the road of late have held 5 of their L/9 opponents to under 99 points or less. Overall thanks to a decent defensive posture they have also seen 8 of their L/10 games remain on the low side of the number. On the road this season the Rockets have seen a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. Now we enter this game against a Cleveland team, playing for the most part aggressive offensive ball while looking like pylons on defense. The Cavs did however, come out last time out, and show us some metal in a 91-89 win vs Miami, and now on a couple of days rest, should be well prepared to use that winning formula for this top tier non conference showdown in a game I have pegged at staying under the slightly bloated public total.
HOUSTON is 23-11 UNDER L/34 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. CLEVELAND in their L/42 versus teams - allowing 106+ points/game have seen an average of 224.7 ppg scored. Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CLEVELAND) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 26-4 L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 201.6 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
02-03-18 | 76ers v. Pacers -2 | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Last night Pacers came back from an 18-point first-half deficit to make the game tight, but ended up losing 133-126 to the Charlotte Hornets. What I took from that game, was how much of a flow the Pacers can get into when their running and gunning and how well they matchup vs a side the 76ers. With that said, I'm betting on the well conditioned PACERS continuing their flow vs a Philadelphia 76ers side that has lost 4 of their L/5 road games SU and also played last night .76ers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on no rest. Also add to that Indiana will have the added motivation, vs a Sixers side that took them out, by a 121-110 count back in November in Philly and you have a quality side situation to sink our teeth into. 76ers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Chalk is 8-2 ATS L/10 meetings in this series. INDIANA is 27-13 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Indiana has won 3 straight at home in this series.PHILADELPHIA is 5-17 ATS L/22 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), poor ball handling team (16.5 TO's or more ) against a good ball handling team ( 14.5 TO's or less) are 9-31 SU L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors. Play on the Pacers to cover |
|||||||
02-02-18 | Lakers +1.5 v. Nets | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
The last time these teams met, the Lakers took out the Nets by a 124-112 win as former Net Lopez scored a season-high 34 points on 13 of 23 from the field and made six 3-pointers. From a matchup perspective I feel the Lakers once again have a viable opportunity to turn the trick again. It must be noted that Brooklyn could easily also be in a letdown scenario here , after back to back grueling division games, including an upset of the 76ers ast time out . BROOKLYN has crashed and burned consistently in the past after these type of affairs as is evident by their 1-12 ATS L/13 record in home games after 2 consecutive division games . Lakers are 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Brooklyn
Play on LA Lakers to cover |
|||||||
02-02-18 | Pacers v. Hornets -3 | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
The Pacers are coming off a 3-0 homestand that included a 105-96 victory over the Hornets on Monday night but despite of that momentum, this is a bad spot for them according to my reference power rankings and system vs system matchup projections. The home team also has the added edge factored in for Coach Nate McMillan not being behind the bench tonight for the Pacers because of personal reasons. The Hornets also have motivation on their side as they look to get revenge for a earlier loss to the Pacers this season. Actually in that loss the Hornets looked like the better team, when they pushed Dwight Howard to the front of their offensive attack and focused on him getting the ball. They floundered in the second half however, when they got away from that game plan and lost . But now tonight with the Pacers weaknesses exposed look for Howard once again be a focal and point and eventual catalyst in what I am betting will be a Hornets win and cover . Pacers are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte.Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher 9-20 SU for go against 69% conversion rate for bettors over the last 5 seasons losing by an average of 4.4 ppg . NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are 60-18 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 7.1 ppg. Play on Charlotte to cover |
|||||||
02-01-18 | Thunder v. Nuggets +1.5 | 124-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
The Thunder have possibly put it all together as they have been surging of late. I'm not completely sold on their sudden reversal in fortunes just yet, despite of the prognosticators and media shoveling their love for them down our proverbial throats. Hey guys, I'm not dumping on the Thunder, because the big three of Westbrook, Melo, and George are true big times talents, I'm just throwing caution to the wind as their a lot of basketball to played this season, before a definite stance can be taken and in my opinion the jury is still out. In their last trip to the hardwood Oklahoma City had a 8 game win streak abruptly ended against Washington despite of the Wizards playing without John Wall, and in the recent past have proven themselves unreliable and inconsistent despite of their talent levels. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance, and back the young but talented Denver Nuggets to grab us some cash in the Mile High city tonight. It must be also noted that Oklahoma City has crashed and burned consistently after being cash cows for their backers for extended periods, as this trend indicates: OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-12 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread . The Thunder have also not been able to take advantage of struggling defenses: OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-16 ATS L/22 versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is also just 2-10 ATS vs. division opponents this season. Thunder are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Northwest.Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest NBA team vs the money line (DENVER) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 25-9 L/5 seasons SU for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Injury update: Nuggets C Nikola Jokic (ankle) is probable Thursday vs Oklahoma City. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
|||||||
01-31-18 | 76ers v. Nets +7 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Philadelphia after a hot streak that saw them notch wins in 10 of 13 games, have now lost back to back games including a 10-point loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday and a 12-point smack down at Milwaukee on Monday. I watched highlights from those game , and some shot clips, and the 76ers looked exhausted and are fade material here in their current form, even against a struggling side like Brooklyn, especially laying this much lumber on the road. Note: BROOKLYN is 13-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season and 19-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BROOKLYN is 16-7 ATS L/23 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season I also betting on a motivated game from the Nets newest acquisition Okafor as he goes against his old teammates. His will to show his old team what he's truly worth should spread and motivate the entire squad to a stronger than normal performance . Okafor a former No.3 pick with the Philadelphia 76ers was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last month, and has slowly been getting acclimated to his new teammates and is getting more minutes of late. This kid has talent, and despite of not working out in Philly is a steal in my opinion for the Nets. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - vs. division opponents, off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more 13-52 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
|||||||
01-31-18 | Heat v. Cavs -2 | 89-91 | Push | 0 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
The Cavs, for a team that is held in such high regard by NBA prognosticators, is a team that has not been fluent of late as their 5-8 record in January would indicate . This team needs some motivational therapy, as they are now a half game ahead of the Heat for third place in the East. To make matters worse the team will have to play without all star Kevin Love who broke his hand in his last trip to the hardwood. However, the silver lining is that the Bulls will now be playing small ball for longer stretches , and when they go big with Jae Crowder ( 6-6) and bring Channing Frye off the bench they wont be easily intimidated by guys like Hassan Whiteside, and maybe more motivated in Love's absence ,which I'm betting actually helps them in the long run. I recently began to believe going small for Cleveland would get them over this ugly slump their in, and now their going to be forced to do it. In their only meeting this season the Cavs beat the Heat 108-97 and lead by as much as 34 points , and now even with out a key cog in their lineup matchup well vs the Heat. CLEVELAND is 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games after 2 consecutive division games .MIAMI is 1-8 ATS L/9 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season . NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 10-29 L/5 seasons for ago against conversion rate of 75% for bettors. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in January games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to cover |
|||||||
01-30-18 | Magic +12.5 v. Rockets | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Houston at home this season, has played down to lower tier opponents like Orlando and have used these type of games , as resting points and live in game scrimmages. Resting key players for longer junctures of the game, and conserving their overall energy levels for foes they deem more important in stature. This is an intelligent game plan, in a long in grueling season, but it provides an opening for a cover on a DD line. Note: HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and long term are is 17-37 ATS L/54 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. I know Orlando does not inspire bettors , but they have been competitive of late, and have covered 6 of their L/7 overall Houston is also just 5-18 ATS L/23 in home games in non-conference games. Orlando is also 8-2 ATS on the road as non conference DD dogs. NBA Home favorites (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Orlando Magic to cover |
|||||||
01-30-18 | Thunder v. Wizards UNDER 219.5 | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
The Washington Wizards tried to run and gun with the red hot Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last week and lost by a 121-111 count. Now in the rematch, I'm betting the Wizards slow things down a little bit, as they play without star guard John Wall in the lineup. This combination of expected strategy and key cog missing will see their flow curtailed, which will also effect their offensive output here , which in turn will effect the total combined score falling on the low side of the number. OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in road games on Tuesday nights. ( This could just be an anomaly but still worth noting) OKLAHOMA CITY is also 19-5 UNDER after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-2 UNDER L/14 after 5 or more consecutive overs with a combined average of 192.1 ppg scored. Under is 25-12 in Thunder last 37 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 11-5-1 in Wizards last 17 vs. Western Conference. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 219.5/ 220 (WASHINGTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-29-18 | Heat v. Mavs +2 | 95-88 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
The Dallas Mavs enter this game desperate for a win after being losers of three in a row and six of the last seven, and are off a heart breaking 2 point loss to the Denver Nuggets last time out. The Heat are a fine team but with this being their 4th game in 7 nights will be on tired legs, and susceptible to down performance after playing 5 straight closely contested and grueling games. Dallas won the first meeting between these teams this season, but DALLAS is 32-17 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent and are viable home dogs in this spot. DALLAS is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.DALLAS is 20-11 ATS L/31 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DALLAS is 33-18 ATS L/51 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 36-13 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
|||||||
01-29-18 | Wolves v. Hawks +6 | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Minnesota is 12 games above .500 and 20-6 at home but the Timberwolves have lost six of their last seven tilts on the road and are weak favorites here as they look ahead to going against the Toronto Raptors on their schedule for tomorrow night . Meanwhile, Atlanta despite a lackluster record, in a rebuilding year, have been competitive for most of this season, despite of some recent lopsided setbacks. Minnesota is 8-11 against the East and Atlanta is 8-11 against the West and from a system to system and player to player standpoint the Hawks matchup fairly decently vs the Wolves especially on their own home court. MINNESOTA is 17-33 ATS L/50 versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game .ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS L/12 after 2 consecutive division games.ATLANTA is 16-7 ATS after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season and is 13-5 ATS L/18 in non-conference games this season. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, after allowing 105 points or more in a loss to a division rival are 29-12 SU L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover |
|||||||
01-29-18 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The visiting Charlotte Hornets enter this game with a 4-9-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 1-3-1 ATS in their L/5 strips to the hardwood. The Hornets are also just 3-9 away in a 1 and 1 situation vs conference opposition. Meanwhile, their hosts the Pacers unlike some people, seem to like playing on Mondays as their 11-1 ATS mark in their L/12 first games of the week would indicate . The Pacers from a betting perspective have also faired well against NBA Southeast opposition cashing 8 of their L/10 meetings with the series host cashing 5 straight meetings and once again look like viable wagers. CHARLOTTE is 14-25 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Indiana is 19-8 ATS L/27 vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48%or better on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 43-3 SU l/21 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 8.4 ppg. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
|||||||
01-28-18 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 226.5 | 102-113 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
The Rockets have no problem scoring points in bunches behind an explosive offense that averages 116.8 ppg at home this season, but its their defensive performances that are most troubling, as is evident by allowing 108.8 ppg as hosts. Needless to say, the Rockets are a one way offensive juggernaut and nothing will change today vs the visiting Phoenix Suns. The Suns are allowing more than 112 ppg this season, while the offense, has averaged 106.8 ppg on the road ranking last in the NBA overall and also own the 4th fastest pace . This according to my own projections results in a high scoring affair that eclipses this fairly high but beatable Total. My own estimates suggest that the Rockets will meet their season average offensive output of around 117 points today, which is a good omen for a over wager cashing as the Rockets 46-13 OVER when they score 117 or more points in a game with the combined average score clicking in at 236 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER L/10 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points wit a combined average score of 236.4 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 11-1 OVER as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points with a combined average of 145.3 ppg going on the board. PHOENIX is 14-3 OVER L/17 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game of 130.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 34-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
01-27-18 | Nets +10.5 v. Wolves | 97-111 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Wolves enter this game on a 2 game losing streak, and looked very lackluster on defense in the process, allowing 126 points to Golden State and 123 to Portland. They looked tired for long stretches of those games, which is not a good omen headed into this game vs a well conditioned Brooklyn team that is tenacious and competitive. In the Nets last trip to the hardwood a 116-91 loss to the Bucks, they had a rare ugly outing but that has been the exception in recent outings, as 11 of their last 14 games have been decided by six points or less, and they have covered 12 of their L/15 overall. When these teams met on Jan 3 the Nets squeaked out a 98-97 win at home and actually matchup pretty well against the Wolves and get my support here getting points. BROOKLYN is 13-3 ATS L/16 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. BROOKLYN is 16-4 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.MINNESOTA is 37-61 ATS L/98 after allowing 120 points or more .MINNESOTA is 17-30 ATS L/47 in non-conference games dating back to last season. NBA Road underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 61-28 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
|||||||
01-27-18 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 220 | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
The Celtics in a grueling physical game took out the Golden State Warriors 92-88 in a home win in November. With that template having proven successful last time out, I'm betting on the Celtics preparing to play a similar type conservative affair. Boston's guards limited Golden State's super star backcourt duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to a total of 22 points on 8-for-32 shooting in that game. I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation here tonight in a much lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 220 and is 9-1 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 25-4 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-26-18 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 217 | 107-85 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
This game between the visiting NY Knicks and their hosts the Phoenix Suns has the makings of a run and gun all out offensive affair. The Suns behind the 4th ranked pace in the NBA are lead by explosive offensive guard Devin Booker who is averaging 24.8 points a game but also own a lackluster D allowing 112.2 ppg the worst mark in the league. With this their first game home after an extended road trip, I'm betting they will be ready to take off here in their own digs. Note: Over is 19-7-1 in Suns last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Meanwhile, the Knicks are allowing 110.3 ppg on the road this season, and are consistently taking part in back and forth wide open tilts as is evident by going over the Total in 9 straight and 11 of their L/12 games overall with the average combined score clicking in at 223.5 ppg . The Knicks are also on tired legs as they played last night, and won't have the energy to play physically in what should be a loosely played game. Over is 18-5 in Knicks last 23 games playing on no rest. NEW YORK is 10-1 OVER L/11 after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season with a combined average score of 224 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 7-0 OVER versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 228.8 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 23-11 OVER L/34 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or less assists/game with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
01-26-18 | 76ers v. Spurs -3.5 | 97-78 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
The San Antonio Spurs are well prepared and very motivated to take on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight at home in the Alamo city. The Spurs have revenge on board for a loss earlier this season to the Sixer's in Pennsylvania, by a 112-106 count , and will have a rested LaMarcus Aldridge ready to get them what they want. Spurs HC Popovich rested Aldridge last time out, in a win at Memphis and now has fresh super star to deploy here this evening. I know Philadelphia is playing good ball at the moment winning 7 of their L/9, and have come a long way from their recent failures, but they are still not an elite team, and do not have the pedigree or experience of their opponents tonight the Spurs. SAN ANTONIO is 16-4 ATS L/20 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game .Spurs are 20-3 SU at home this season. Spurs are 13-0 SU at home L/13 in this series. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 19-44 ATS L/21 seasons for ago against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover
|
|||||||
01-26-18 | Lakers v. Bulls -4 | 108-103 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
The LA Lakers enter this road tilt vs the Bulls playing decently of late, winning 7 of their L/9 and have been especially good at home, where they have won 6 straight games. However, you have to remember that this young Lakers team previous to their current top tier play, lost 9 straight , and have lost 15 of 21 road games and I currently feel still don't deserve a great deal of respect at this juncture of their campaign. Meanwhile, Chicago, in what has been tabbed as a rebuilding year, have surprisingly been tough to play against as is evident by covering 6 of their L/7 overall and 20 of their L/26 , and 13 of their 21 home tilts. After a bad outing against the 76ers last time out, I'm betting the Bulls will be primed to bounce back with a big effort here. Add to that the Bulls are also in revenge mode for a 103-94 loss at Staples back on Nov 21 and we have a fired up group to back in this spot play. Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Lakers are 2-6 L/8 in Chicago. Bulls are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Bulls are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog are 30-1 SU 21 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg, which qualifies this as solid ATS choice. Underdogs vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 10-52 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors losing by an average of more than 8 ppg. Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover |
|||||||
01-25-18 | Kings +9 v. Heat | 89-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
The Kings enter this game with a little momentum after they snapped an eight-game losing streak Tuesday, by taking out the Orlando Magic 105-99 in the visitors role. Meanwhile, the Heat are of an emotional close lose by a 99-90 count at the Houston Rockets on Monday. That game was very competitive to the very end and a grueling conclusion to a 5 game road trip , and will now have a Heat side that has not been home in 10 days, and still getting acclimated to their own digs again in a letdown spot. This makes the Heat vulnerable in my opinion, especially on a slightly bloated line. Hey folks, I know the Kings may not inspire bettors, but they are playing better overall ball as this season has progressed and found a spark plug Garrett Temple who had a career best 34 points last time out. His energy and professionalism/work ethic are spreading through the Kings locker room and translating itself into a nice energy flow for his team. QUOTE: "Garrett has been a fantastic leader for us, and I couldn't be happier for him," Kings coach Dave Joerger told the media. "He is the ultimate professional. For him to have this type of night, I'm just tickled." END QUOTE. The Heat are 0-10 ATS failing to cover by 5.4 ppg off a loss as a dog in which they led by double-digits. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest are 43-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
|||||||
01-24-18 | Celtics +1 v. Clippers | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
The Boston Celtics enter this game in a funk , after losing 4 straight games, and will be primed to bounce back here vs their hosts the LA Clippers tonight. Previous to their ugly run they won 7 straight and have been very competitive this season and more than capable of a top tier effort even though they played last night here in LA losong a heart breaker to the Lakers 108-107. The Celtics are one of the leagues better conditioned teams and are 18-8 ATS off a road loss, and 17-5 ATS L/22 when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days. Considering the Clippers are also in a bit of a slump losing 2 straight and still short handed with a boatload full of injuries , it will not be a hard decision to back a Celtics team that my own power rankings suggest to be the superior side. BOSTON is 27-15 ATS L/32 when the line is +3 to -3 and 18-8 ATS L/26 off a road loss. BOSTON is 15-4 ATS L/19 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season. teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA CLIPPERS) - after allowing 115 points or more against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less are 6-26 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston to cover
|
|||||||
01-24-18 | Wolves v. Blazers -3 | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Minnesota (31-18) has won two in a row and seven of nine and are media darlings at the moment as this young team continues to get accolades for their up trending performances. Tonight against the Blazers though, my own head to head systems and power rankings suggest that the Blazers despite of not having the same top tier record as the Wolves matchup very well against the visitors. Minnesota won 108-107 on Dec. 18 at Target Center in the only previous meeting between the teams this season in a game that I felt the Blazers could have won. I'm betting a change in venue will help the host notch a victory in the rematch. Note: Wolves Jimmy Butler expected to miss this game with a injury, but if he does play he will be less than 100%. Timberwolves are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Trail Blazers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.Trail Blazers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Northwest.Timberwolves are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Portland. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in January games are 26-7 ATS in the following game for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are just 32-70 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Portland to cover
|
|||||||
01-24-18 | Jazz v. Pistons -2 | 98-95 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
The Pistons enter this game on a 5 game losing streak, and are now desperate to get back in the win column here at home in Motown this Wednesday night. Meanwhile, visiting Utah also continues to exhibit inconsistencies this season, and have lost 13 of their L/17 overall. Despite of both teams futility , one side stands out as being slightly superior from a matchup perspective and that is the home team according to my own player to player and system vs system matchup stats/data. In a contest of two struggling teams the lesser of two evils is the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons SRS is 0.36 ranking them 14th in the league while the Jazz SRS -0.43 ranking them 17th in the league. ( SRS DETROIT is 11-3 ATS in non-conference games this season.DETROIT is 15-5 ATS L/20 in home games off a upset loss as a favorite which happened last time out to Brooklyn 101-100.DETROIT is 12-2 ATS L/14 in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Pistons are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Northwest.
Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover |
|||||||
01-24-18 | Pelicans v. Hornets UNDER 224 | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
The Pelicans enter this game having seen a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored on the road this season. Meanwhile, Charlotte has seen a combined average score of 211.5 ppg go on the board in their home games this season. These averages and a head to head matchup systems analysis has me projecting a total closer to 218.5 to 220, which gives us value on making a UNDER wager in this spot. The discrepancy between my numbers in the offered total is partially based on series history which has seen both sides take part in a high scoring affairs. But the lines-makers have stretched this number to its outer limits and there is value on the under considering my projections. NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 UNDER L/29 in road games when playing against a team with a losing record with the combined average of 207.9 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 23-12 UNDER L/35 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game with t a combined average of 210 ppg scored. HC Clifford of Charlotte is Clifford is 21-9 UNDER in home games after a win by 6 points or less ( beat Sacramento 112-107 last time out) the combined average score of 195.1 ppg. Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 6-2 in Pelicans last 8 road games.Under is 10-4 in Hornets last 14 vs. Western Conference. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 37-84 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The combined average score of those games was 218.7 ppg) Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-23-18 | Cavs v. Spurs +1 | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Cleveland and San Antonio are two teams that have been under performing of late. But one team looks like they care and are working hard to get back on track, while the other( Cleveland ) despite of saying what's politically correct to the media , looks like their just going thorough the motions. The Cavs leader, LeBron James responses to media of late about his team performances (3-9 SU L/12) , have been positive in nature, and despite of him saying he's playing as hard as ever, its not translating onto the court, which is a worrisome situation. The Cavs biggest issue is one that makes you wonder if their a championship calibre team, as they have allowed 119.8 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood, and overall on the season rank 28th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, San Antonio are coming off a only their 4th loss at home this season last time out to Indiana, but are more than capable of bouncing back behind a defense, that is ranked No.1 in the league in points allowed and 2nd in defensive efficiency. With that said, the difference maker tonight I'm betting will come via the superior defense and coach ( Popovich). CLEVELAND is 11-29 ATS versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and is 4-15 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season .CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season and is 1-9 ATS off a home loss by 10 points which happened against Oklahoma City 148-124. SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 ATS in home games after playing a home game this season. SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS L/22 in home games off a upset loss as a favorite which happened against Indiana last time out.
NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-2 SU L/5 seasons, winning SU by 10.6 ppg for a 94% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
|||||||
01-22-18 | Wolves v. Clippers -2 | 126-118 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves were riding a five-game win streak in early January, but have suddenly begun to struggle losing to Orlando and Houston in back to back affairs, before coming up with a big victory vs the Raptors on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Clippers, ended a six-game winning run on the weekend with a loss to the Jazz. The Clippers have also won four consecutive home games and 12 of their past 16 contests overall and from a matchup standpoint here on their own home floor deserve to be favorites and are my choice tonight as short chalk. Note: LA also has revenge on board for a loss here to the Wolves back in December, and will primed for payback. Note: Wolves Jimmy butler is less than 100% for this tilt with a knee injury and may miss this tilt. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 31-69 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 9-52 SU L/ 5 seasons and a perfect 0-7 SU this season for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors. Play on the Clippers to cover |