Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-21-19 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +3 | Top | 37-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Saturday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Love this situation. The Blue Bombers opened up around a pick'em in this game so, of course, the markets jumped all over one of the best teams in the CFL and this line has moved to a -3. Keep in mind, Winnipeg is off a bye week but has a game versus Hamilton on deck. Why does that matter? The Tiger-Cats are the #1 team in the East and also handed Winnipeg their first loss of the season! Don't be surprised if the Bombers make the mistake of looking right past the Alouettes in this one. That will prove to be a mistake because, as strong as Winnipeg is this season, they are still just a .500 team on the road. Montreal has a winning record at home and has been getting strong QB play from Vernon Adams. Of course Winnipeg has been dealing with the QB injury to Matt Nichols. They do get RB Andrew Harris back this week but the Als have a great rusher of their own in William Stanback. They will call this one an upset but, from a situational perspective, truly the home team is the one that should win this game and I won't be surprised when they do. The Alouettes are off a loss and respond here as they catch the Blue Bombers in the right situation to knock them off. 10* MONTREAL |
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09-20-19 | Calgary v. Toronto OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury to wide receiver Reggie Begelton for the Stamps. However, Calgary also is going to be without their leading tackler, linebacker Cory Greenwood. That said, Toronto is going to score their fair share of points in this one. This is particularly true because they are at home for this one also. But I just don't see the Argos being able to stop a potent West Division offense even with the Stampeders being with a top wide receiver. Calgary still have plenty of firepower all over the field and the Stamps enter this game off a low-scoring win. Rarely do the Stampeders ever have back to back low-scoring performances. Prior to the tight win over Hamilton, Calgary had averaged 31 points per game in their 3 prior games. As for the Argonauts offense, they seemed to respond to their "wake-up call" of a late July shutout loss to Edmonton. Ever since then Toronto has scored an average of 30 points per game and 4 of their 5 games since being shutout by the Eskimos have gone over the total. Look for the Stampeders over to improve to 3-0 in their past 3 road games with a high-scoring contest expected here. The past two seasons, when Calgary is facing a team with a losing record in a game played in the second half of a season, the over is 3-1. Toronto's over is 4-1 this season when facing a team with a winning record. Also, in September games the Argonauts are 9-1 to the over. All these trends continue Friday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-14-19 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan OVER 49.5 | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - There are a lot of trends that point to the under for this game and their first match-up this season stayed well under the total. However, I am riding high with the over here because the Riders are off back to back sub-par showings on offense this season. Normally Saskatchewan has bounced back every single time off a low-scoring game and I fully expect that here after scoring just 10 points last week. QB Cody Fajardo and the Riders are fired up for a strong game and they want to stretch the field and put pressure on the Als and force them to play catch-up. Saskatchewan does not want to allow the Alouettes to get into a ball-control ground-based attack that serves them well. The Riders want to force QB Vernon Adams and Montreal out of their typical came plan. By the way, the Als are also off a low-scoring effort last week and, like the Riders, Montreal has shown a knack for bouncing back with strong games offensively when off a rare dud in terms of offensive production. Montreal had scored 27 points or more in 5 of 7 games previous to being held to 21 points last week. The Roughriders, prior to back to back low-scoring results (first time this season!) had averaged 31 points per game over an 8-week stretch. I am looking for a 33-27 type game here and that total is double digits in excess of the current posted number on this game. Keep in mind, non-conference match-ups for these teams (their own earlier match-up this season notwithstanding) have proven to be high-scoring affairs more often than not. This one flies over the total as the weather forecast is also a good one here. 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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09-13-19 | Ottawa v. BC -5 | Top | 5-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Friday 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 10 PM ET - A match-up of struggling teams and, of course, many were surprised to see a 1-10 BC team open up as a 7.5 point favorite over a 3-8 Ottawa team! Of course the markets have since pounded this "mistake" by the oddsmakers and the line has dropped down to the -5 range. I have said it many times before and I'll say it many times again in the future, the oddsmakers don't really make "mistakes". The line was set this way with good reason and I love the Lions in this spot. BC is still searching for their first home win. Even though they've still been losing in recent weeks the Lions have made improvements on defense and the offensive line is also giving better protection to QB Mike Reilly as evidenced in last week's game. BC is extra hungry to get that home win but also has extra fire about this game because of hosting former Lions QB Jonathan Jennings whom jettisoned BC to go to Ottawa in this past offseason. Rest assured, BC wants this game very much and they are starting to jell despite what their record would otherwise indicate. Take advantage of the "false" line move here and lay those points knowing that you're getting the best of the number and that you've got a highly motivated team that appears poised to play their best game of the season tonight! Look for the Lions to improve to 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams as they get the much-needed home win tonight and it comes by a convincing margin. 10* BC LIONS |
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09-07-19 | Calgary v. Edmonton OVER 47 | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos @ Calgary Flames @ 7 ET - It looks like it was an easy under last week when these same teams met on Monday in Calgary but it truly wasn't. The final score of the game took place on the very FIRST play of the fourth quarter and that brought the game total to 34 points but then there was no more scoring in the final 15 minutes of action. That is not the big story though as the bigger story was the fact that in terms of field goals and touchdowns there were EIGHT scores but the problem for over players was that SIX were field goals and only TWO were touchdowns. Once again, just like last week, the team swill move the ball quite well but this time we'll have more points to show for it. The Stampeders got Bo Levi Mitchell back last week and he threw for 263 yards while running back KaDeem Carey ran for 143 yards. Edmonton's defense will again be put to the test this week. The difference this week though is that, at home, the Eskimos score much better. QB Trevor Harris completed 77% of his passes last week for over 200 yards but Edmonton managed only three field goals and zero touchdowns. That won't happen again as they respond big at home and I look for Harris to really make this game all about an aerial assault on his part. There will be a ton of big passing from the home team in this one. The over improves to 3-0 this season when the Eskimos are a home favorite of 7 points or less. Calgary's over also improves to 3-0 in road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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09-06-19 | BC v. Montreal OVER 50 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - Both teams are off bye weeks which were preceded by games that went under the total. However, BC is 4-2 to the over when coming off a bye week. Also, Montreal's game at Toronto two weeks ago had no business staying under the total. The teams combined for over 900 yards of offense! Considering that as well as the fact that the Alouettes entered that game on a 4-2 run to the over, I love the over in this match-up. Montreal has now allowed over 100 yards on the ground each of their past two games plus an average of 400 passing yards their past two games! As for the Lions defense, they are allowing 32.1 points per game on the season. Only Toronto has allowed more points per game than BC. Mike Reilly did throw for nearly 300 yards in the Lions low-scoring loss prior to their bye week. They'll put a lot more points on the board in this inter-divisional match-up. This one will be a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
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09-02-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary OVER 47 | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4:30 ET - I am well aware of the fact that this is a fierce rivalry game and these types of games tend to be lower scoring. However, this total is simply far too low given the situation. The Eskimos Trevor Harris continues to light it up through the air and leads the CFL in passing yards. The Stampeders are getting a boost this week with the return of their starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Calgary will be taking on an Edmonton defense that has allowed an average of 30 points the past two weeks. As for the Stamps defense, they entered last week's bye having allowed an average of 33 points per game their past two games. These teams met a month ago and Calgary won 24-18 but the Eskimos got 373 passing yards from Harris in that game and certainly should have scored much more than 18 points. That low-scoring result is helping to give us value here with Monday's total. This total has dropped to as low as a 47 after opening up above a 50. I'll take the extra value as Mitchell couldn't wait to get back on the field and it helps that his return comes at home while I also don't see the weekly aerial assault display from Harris slowing down here. Plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Calgary |
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09-01-19 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan -5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3 ET - This line was as high as a -7 on the Riders and has dropped down to as low as a -5 as of early game day morning. In my typical preferred contrarian style, I am fading the market move and grabbing the extra line value here. This is Saskatchewan's chance to catch the Blue Bombers in the standings. How can they do that when they are 4 points back? Well the key is that this is the first game of a "home and home" series with the Bombers as they meet again in Winnipeg next week. Saskatchewan also gets the benefit of catching the Blue Bombers without their starting QB and now their RB will miss both games of this series. Andrew Harris was suspended by the league for two games and that certainly will hurt the ground attack of the Bombers. That will put even more pressure on QB Chris Streveler (filling in for the injured Mike Nichols). Yes Streveler was under center for Winnipeg's win last week but he was held under 100 passing yards in that game! The Roughriders, conversely, saw Cody Fajardo have another big game at the pivot for them last week as he threw for 241 yards. Saskatchewan is known as the toughest place for road teams to play in this league and you know it will be rocking for this huge match-up hosting the top team in the division standings. That said, I am happy to lay the small points here in what shapes up to be a home blowout. The Riders are riding a 5-0 SU/ATS win streak heading into this one and I look for the Roughriders to improve to 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Winnipeg. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-25-19 | Montreal v. Toronto OVER 54 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Montreal Alouettes @ Noon ET - The Argonauts are having a miserable season but are at home where they have averaged 27 points per game their past two games. While Toronto is starting to turn the corner (finally) in terms of offensive production at home, the Argos defense is a major weakness. Toronto has allowed 35.3 points per game this season and they now host a red hot Alouettes offensive unit. Montreal has scored an average of 38 points per game in its past two road games and this is a team that has plenty of momentum. After an impressive OT win at Calgary last week, the Als have now won 4 of their past 6 games and Vernon Adams, Jr. continues to pile up yardage through the air for the Alouettes. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Montreal's last 5 Sunday games. The over is 10-5 the last 15 times the Argonauts have been a home dog. McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Argos QB, has thrown for 543 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs his past two games. Both teams getting solid QB of late and this one turns into a shootout. That is why the game total opened up at a 55.5 and now that the markets have pushed it lower (54) it is "go time" with this totals selection as I don't foresee many defensive stops in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-24-19 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan -9.5 | Top | 18-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Saskatchewan is off a bye week. Ottawa is off another disappointing loss last week as their offense continues to flounder. The Roughriders also are playing this game with revenge since a Week Two loss to the Redblacks. Ever since that game in Ottawa, this is a case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Redblacks have lost 6 of their past 7 games and have been held to an average of just 11.5 points in those 6 losses! The Riders, on the other hand, have won 5 of their past 6 games and they have averaged 31.2 points in those 5 wins. Saskatchewan enters this game fresh off a bye and they are known for being very tough at home where they have arguably the best home field advantage in the CFL with a strong fan base. The Riders have won 4 straight games and will make it 5 in a row here. Considering the big difference in the way the offensive units have been performing for these two teams, as well as the revenge angle and the home field edge, it is plain to see why I am willing to lay the big points here. The line opened up at 10.5 with good reason but has fallen to a 9.5 and I look for the Riders to win this game by at least a pair of touchdowns. The Roughriders are also 2nd in the league for total offense and total defense while the Redblacks rank near the bottom in both of those categories. Also, if you look at those stats from Week 3 onward, the difference in these teams is even more pronounced. In terms of trending, Ottawa is 2-4 ATS when off a loss against a divisional foe. The Riders are 4-2 ATS when coming off a bye week and are also on a 6-2 ATS run in August games. More of the same expected here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-23-19 | Winnipeg +6.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Edmonton Eskimos @ 9 ET - Big line move toward Edmonton here. That is because everyone is aware that Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols left last week's game in the 4th quarter with an injury. However, what is being under-estimated by the betting markets here is that Blue Bombers back-up QB Chris Streveler got plenty of experience filling in for Nichols last season plus he has seen action this season as well. He is not a "normal" back-up in the sense that he gets used at times throughout games. That said, this is a huge game where a pair of teams are battling it out for West Division supremacy. Yes the Eskimos have revenge but they are being overvalued here. The Blue Bombers have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. Also, Winnipeg is 8-4 SU and ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are playing against a team with a winning record. The Eskimos are 6-15 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Prior to last week's cover against a bad Argonauts team, Edmonton was on a 3-7 ATS run in August games. That poor trending resumes here! The Blue Bombers are 4-0 SU in divisional games this season while the Eskimos are only 2-2 SU in divisional games. 10* WINNIPEG |
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08-17-19 | Hamilton -2 v. Ottawa | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 4 ET - Both teams have injuries at the QB position but the Tiger-Cats are getting much better play at that spot. Dane Evans helped lead Hamilton back from a big late-game deficit last week and certainly has not been making the same mistakes that the Ottawa QB has. The Redblacks have had to turn to Dominique Davis at the pivot and he has a 5 TD's against 11 INT's! Davis leads the CFL in interceptions and, of course, that is not a category for which one wants to hold that distinction! Though some will view this game as a big motivational edge for the Redblacks as they host the first place team in their division, there is actually another way to look at this that I believe is a key factor in motivation. The first-place Tiger-Cats have lost 5 straight meetings with Ottawa. Their head coach, Orlondo Steinauer, certainly hasn't forgotten as he referenced that they (Redblacks) got them good last year. In other words, the Ti-Cats are out for some revenge this week and I like the fact that Ottawa is going through a lot of personnel changes at all the skill positions plus has a turnover-prone QB. Davis will be throwing to some new starting receivers this week too plus their running back is now out. The Tiger-Cats are not without injuries too but they are a much more "settled team" at this point in the season and they get revenge for last season's series sweep at the hands of Ottawa. Keep in mind, the Redblacks enter this game having lost 5 of their last 6 games. This line opened up at a -4 and has dropped to a -2 on the Tiger-Cats. I love to fade line moves like this one given the above. 10* HAMILTON |
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08-16-19 | Edmonton v. Toronto OVER 50.5 | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 7:30 ET - No team in the CFL has allowed fewer points than the Eskimos this season. No team in the CFL has scored fewer points than the Argonauts this season. That said, this looks "easy", right? We all know what happens when something looks "easy" of course. The fact is there is more than meets the eye here at first glance. Toronto is off a bye week which was preceded by the Argos getting their first win of the season and it came in a huge upset as a double digit home dog against Winnipeg. I look for Toronto to use this for momentum here at home and coming off a bye week. That will translate to some success on offense again for the Argonauts but truly their defense can not be trusted. They have allowed an average of 34 points per game on the season. That is why I love the over in this match-up because I don't see the Argos stopping Edmonton in this game. It is a revenge game for the Argonauts after they were shutout in the first meeting earlier this season at Edmonton. Also, the Eskimos have a huge divisional match-up on deck with division-leading Winnipeg next week. That coupled with the fact that Edmonton shut out Toronto earlier this season could lead to a bit of a lackadaisical effort from the Eskimos defense in this one. The Argonauts will take advantage and score plenty here but they can't stop the Edmonton offense. The most recent meeting between these teams stayed under the total but the over was 10-3 in the 13 prior meetings and that long-term trend resumes here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-15-19 | BC +11 v. Winnipeg | Top | 16-32 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #689 Thursday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - The Lions got beat by double digits at home in their season opener when they hosted the Blue Bombers two months ago. Not only is this a revenge game but it also is a match-up offering great situational edges too. While Winnipeg is off a big divisional win over Calgary and has another huge divisional match-up on deck at Edmonton, BC is off a loss at Hamilton and has the same Tiger-Cats (non-divisional opponent) on deck for next week. That said, I love getting the generous points being offered here. The Blue Bombers benefited last week from a huge game from their special teams. The point is that, from a statistical standpoint, Winnipeg really was not overly impressive last week. On the other hand, the Lions were quite impressive from a statistical standpoint in their tight loss to the Ti-Cats. QB Mike Reilly did throw a couple INTs in addition to his couple TDs but that is what keyed the one-point loss. That said, I like the great value being offered here with the double digit road dog. 10* BC LIONS |
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08-10-19 | BC v. Hamilton OVER 51 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - Hamilton is fired up off a 5-point loss at Saskatchewan and will be ready to take out their frustration on a weak BC defense. The Lions are coming off a bye week and will be ready to respond after being held to just 18 points in a home loss prior to the week off. Note that the last 5 meetings between these teams have averaged 57.4 points per game and the posted total on this one has dropped down to a 51 as of early Saturday morning. The Tiger-Cats have scored an average of 44 points per game in their last two home games against BC! The Lions have averaged a respectable 24.5 points per game in their 4 road games this season. The over is 5-1 this season when BC is an underdog. The over is 12-5 the past 3 seasons combined when the Tiger-Cats are playing against a team with a losing record. The Lions have allowed 37.3 points per game in their 6 defeats this season and BC has given up at least 33 points in all 6 of their defeats. Considering that as well as the fact that the Lions have scored 23 points or more in all but one of their road games, you can see why this game is offering great value on the high side of the total. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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08-08-19 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -7 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 8:30 ET - This game is for first place in the West Division. Long-term the Stampeders hold a huge edge in this series as they've won 19 of the last 22 meetings. However, this line opened up as high as a -10 on the Blue Bombers with plenty of good reason. Now that the markets, as expected, have moved it down to a -7 on Winnipeg, it is "go time" with this one. The Blue Bombers saw their unbeaten season come to and two weeks ago at Hamilton. Then last week on Thursday they blew a 20-0 lead at Toronto to get upset by a single point as a huge favorite. Can you imagine how fired up Winnipeg will be at home for this game after all this that has transpired the past two weeks? Keep in mind the Blue Bombers are still undefeated at home this season and they catch Calgary off a big home win over Edmonton last week. Not only was that a big divisional win for the Stamps, it also came on Saturday so the Bombers have a nice rest edge in this match-up. Additionally, the Stampeders are still down to their back-up quarterback and I look for an angry Winnipeg team to respond huge at home in this game and play their best game of the season thus far on both sides of the ball. The situational aspects of this game favor the Blue Bombers in a big way and the odds makers had it right with their bigger number on the opener of this game. Look for the home team to win in a blowout by double digits. 10* WINNIPEG |
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08-03-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #695 Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and I like to look for lines that look a little "off" where I am confident the masses are going to be looking one way and so we jump in on the opposite side and look the other way. It is something that has worked very well for me through the years and I expect that to again be the case in this Saturday match-up. Edmonton is AT Calgary and yet the Eskimos are a slight favorite here. Basically the line is right around a pick'em but most are going to look at this game and say, "Oh, I can take the defending CFL champs on their home field at a pick'em" and they'll be all over the Stampeders here. The fact is that the odds makers set the line this way with good reason. For one thing Calgary is still using Nick Arbuckle at QB because of the Bo Levi Mitchell injury. Admittedly, Arbuckle has surprised this season. However, he still has a total of only 2 touchdowns (plus also 2 picks thrown) in his last 3 games. This included games against Ottawa and Toronto too. Those two teams, even after rare wins this week, are a combined 4-10 on the season! Arbuckle is going to face a much tougher test here and I like the fact that Eskimos QB Trevor Harris entered this week's action as the #1 passer in the CFL for passing yards! He is fully capable of another huge game here and you know they've had this game circled in red as this is a heated rivalry and the Eskimos appear to be on the way up this season while the Stamps are regressing as they are suffering a "Grey Cup hangover" this season plus have the injury at QB spot. 10* EDMONTON |
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08-02-19 | Ottawa v. Montreal OVER 52.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - The total opened up at a 54.5 but has dropped to 52.5 as of early morning on game day. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move. The Alouettes are off a bye week and that was preceded by a low-scoring win. The Redblacks are off a tight low-scoring loss last week at home against Calgary. This has led to value here with the over because their prior game results are being over-valued here and I am expecting this one to play out much differently than those games. These two teams are ranked 8th and 9th in the 9-team CFL for team defense in terms of yards allowed per game. Also, Montreal has allowed 26 points per game and Ottawa has allowed 30 points per game on the season. Both defenses are likely to struggle here and I like the QB play we've been seeing from both of these squads. That being said, throw the trends out the window here (I am aware the trending favors the under here) and look for this one to get much closer to 60 points than 50 points! 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
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08-01-19 | Hamilton +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Thursday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughridgers @ 9:30 ET - Hamilton lost starting QB Jeremiah Masoli to a season-ending knee injury during last week's big win over Winnipeg as they handed the Blue Bombers their first loss of the season. The odds makers are aware of this. Dane Evans, a successful QB in college with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, will start in his place. The odds makers are aware of this. The point I am making is that this line opened up at a pick'em with plenty of good reason but the markets have pushed Saskatchewan to being a 3-point favorite in this spot as if the odds makers don't know what their doing. Yes this is a revenge game for the Roughriders as they lost at Hamilton in their season opener this year. However, Saskatchewan has struggled against quality teams this season. They got blown out by Calgary a few weeks ago. The Riders also lost to an Ottawa team that is now 2-4 on the season. Saskatchewan is 3-3 on the season and 2 of the wins have come against a BC team that is 1-6 on the year and the other win came against a Toronto team that is 0-6 on the season! Until the Roughriders prove they can beat a quality opponent I have no problem fading them. Also, you know the Tiger-Cats are in a "rally the troops" mode after losing Masoli to injury last week. This will be their first full game without him and everyone will bring their "A game" in support of Evans, the new starting QB. You see this in all sports where the first game after an injury there is often a "rally the troops" game and that is what I am expecting here. Love the value with the +3 and betting on a team that is 5-1 this season and going against a team whose only wins have come against bad teams. Keep in mind the Tiger-Cats defense allowing just 19 points per game this season and the Ti-Cats have a rest edge here since they played last week on Friday. Saskatchewan played on Saturday last week and so this is a very short rest spot for them on Thursday. 10* HAMILTON |
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan -2.5 v. BC | Top | 45-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - I have tremendous respect for the odds makers and this is true even in CFL. Sure this is not a big market place for them but every game in every sport that has a number on it has great thought and research put into it for specialists from that sport. That being said, I have an interesting viewpoint on this game based on what the odds makers did here. Keep in mind last week Saskatchewan was at home against BC and the Roughriders opened up as only a 2-point favorite. Now, knowing that the Riders won last week's game and that the Lions have revenge in this game and that home teams have dominated the series between these teams, how in the world could Saskatchewan have opened up as 3.5-point road favorites here? Exactly! My point is that the whole world (at least the betting world that pays attention to CFL) is likely to be lining up on the home dog revenge-minded Lions here. As for me, I'll side with the sharpest minds in the industry...those on the other side of the counter...the odds makers! Doesn't work all the time of course...nothing does...but this is an angle I like to use a lot. In this specific case, it may seem surprising to see this line on Saskatchewan but don't be fooled. It is has already come down to as low as a -2 because the markets are doing precisely what I would expect them to do given the above. Let's take advantage and lay the short number with the road favorite. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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07-26-19 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +2.5 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Winnipeg is 5-0 on the season and that means the Blue Bombers have the attention of everyone as the only remaining team in the league that is undefeated. However, the very first lines that popped up globally on this game had Hamilton as the 2-point favorite. Now, as of early Friday morning, the Tiger-Cats are a 2.5 point dog. This is a great value opportunity on a home dog. While I certainly respect the 5-0 Blue Bombers, note that Hamilton is a solid 4-1 on the season as well plus they are coming off a bye week. Also, about that 5-0 for Winnipeg...note that 4 of the wins have come against Ottawa (2), BC, and Toronto. Those teams, after Redblacks and Argonauts lost last night, are a combined 3-15 on the season! The only team with a winning record that the Blue Bombers have beaten was Edmonton - currently 4-2 on the season after last night's victory. A win is a win as they say but do note that the Eskimos outgained the Bombers in the aforementioned game and it was at Winnipeg. Also, Edmonton scored SEVEN times in the game but the problem for the Eskimos was that all 7 scores were field goals! Give the Blue Bombers credit for keeping them out of the end zone but the fact is that Edmonton moved he ball quite well in that game. The home team won both games (SU) last season and I look for that trend to continue here but will grab the points as insurance. 10* HAMILTON |
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07-25-19 | Toronto v. Edmonton OVER 51 | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9:30 PM ET - It will still be windy during the day in Edmonton but the breezy conditions will be subsiding as evening comes and I expect only moderate winds for this one Thursday night in Alberta. The line has moved down to as low as 51 as everyone is liking the under after the Eskimos scored only 10 points last week and the Argonauts managed to put just 16 points on the board. Keep in mind this is a non-conference match-up and these types of match-ups, especially with Toronto being winless on the season, don't bring out the best usually in terms of level of defensive play. Also, Edmonton could get caught looking ahead to their big match-up with division (and provincial rival) Calgary that is coming up next week. The Argonauts are allowing 37.6 points per game this season. The over is 3-1 in Toronto's last 4 Thursday games. The Eskimos are a double digit favorite and the over is 18-8 the last 26 times they have been a favorite of 10 or more points. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Alberta. Toronto has averaged 332 passing yards per game their last 3 games and the Eskimos will take advantage of the Argonauts porous defense as well. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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07-25-19 | Calgary v. Ottawa +6 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 8* Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - This line has been on the rise for the favored Stampeders because everyone is looking at the revenge angle from their Week 1 home loss in Calgary. However, what about the fact that the Stamps are off a big win here and they have division rival Edmonton on deck? Also, what about the fact that Ottawa scored just 1 point in last week's ugly loss and also the fact that this is the one and only time on the schedule that the Redblacks get the chance (on their own home field) to get revenge for last year's Grey Cup loss? The fact is that Ottawa is what I would term a "live dog" in a match-up like this and I am grabbing the generous points. Note that Calgary is 0-3 ATS in non-conference games this season and also 0-3 ATS in games in which they have been a favorite. Certainly with this line hanging around a full TD the line definitely is not insignificant. This is particularly true when you consider that the Redblacks are 16-7 ATS as an underdog including a superb 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they have been a home underdog. 8* OTTAWA |
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07-20-19 | BC v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 25-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #695 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total Saskatchewan Roughriders vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - Contrarian play, which as long-time followers know, is quite typical for me. The Lions scored only 6 points in last week's loss and everyone is deeming QB Mike Reilly to BC for this season to be a bust. But, keep in mind, we have a long way to go this season and I fully expect the Lions offensive production to get back on track this week. As for the Roughriders, they are off their bye week and that was preceded by Saskatchewan scoring just 10 points in a home loss to Calgary. Based on the ugly scoring results for each of these teams last week, both teams (including their QBs) have plenty to prove here. Keep in mind the Riders now face a weaker defense than they did in their most recent game (that was against the Stampeders). Under center for the Roughriders is Cody Fajardo for the injured Zach Collaros. The most recent game notwithstanding, Fajardo has played quite well and I also know full well what Reilly is capable of and I am expecting both teams (and their QBs) to respond huge this week. The Riders had averaged 30 points per game in their first 3 games this season and the Lions had averaged 24 points per game in their first 4 games this season. That equates to 54 points but, because of the most recent game for each team, we've got a total hovering around 50 here. Value is big here and note that the over is 3-1 in BC's divisional games this season. The over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Roughriders have been a home favorite of 7 or less points. 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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07-19-19 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg OVER 51.5 | Top | 1-31 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 8:30 ET - I like the overs in situations that have all the elements we are seeing in this match-up. Winnipeg already beat Ottawa, a non-conference foe, earlier this season. The Blue Bombers have Hamilton on deck. Even though the Tiger-Cats are another non-conference foe, if the Winnipeg defense was going to get geared up about facing someone it would be the streaking Ti-Cats next week. Hamilton has the best record in the East and the undefeated Bombers, of course, have the best record in the West. That sets up a showdown for next week and I could see the Blue Bombers defense being a little lax in this one as a result. As for the Redblacks defense, they are likely to be shredded by a powerhouse Winnipeg offense further strengthened by QB Matt Nichols looking sharp last week after his Week 4 injury. Prior the previous meeting between these teams this season staying under the total, 4 of the last 5 had gone over the total. Also, the over is 6-3 in the last 9 meetings between these teams at Winnipeg. Ottawa's game hosting the Blue Bombers earlier this season was the only game this season that has been an under for the Redblacks. Their QB Dominique Davis has had trouble with throwing too many picks but he is a dual threat and will run more than he did in the first meeting between these teams. He has 5 rushing TDs this season and also had a 3-TD passing game earlier this season. This total has gone from 55 to 51.5 and is therefore offering even more value here with pleasant weather also expected here. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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07-18-19 | Toronto +12.5 v. Calgary | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Thursday 10* Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - The Stampeders have only 1 home loss this season and it came against the Redblacks. Ottawa and Calgary also have met twice for the Grey Cup title in the past three season. Keep in mind the Stampeders loss to the Redblacks was in their home opener! That said, who do the Stamps have on deck for next week? Ottawa! Who are the playing this week? The only winless team in the CFL, Toronto. The Argonauts are 0-4 on the season and I could see the Stampeders looking right past them here. I still expect Calgary to win but I expect the victory margin to be single digits and I love the value with the road dog here. The Stampeders starting quarterback, Bo Levi Mitchell, is out and that means Nick Arbuckle continues to get time under center. He has struggled to get Calgary deep into the red zone in games. As for the Argos, they have Mcleod Bethel-Thompson under center and he threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 TDs last week. I feel we've got great underdog line value here as the Argonauts running attack was also better than Calgary's in last week's action. 10* TORONTO |
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07-13-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 51 | Top | 36-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #685 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - Montreal had one bad game offensively but they've averaged 30.5 points per game in their other two games. Ottawa had a flat performance last week following a bye week but the Redblacks had averaged 38 points per game in their two prior games this season. The last 5 meetings between these teams have all resulted in unders and that has helped move this total move down from a 52.5 to a 51 as of early game day morning and I love the extra value now being offered here. Montreal has red hot running back William Stanback whom ran for over 200 yards last week. That will result in the Ottawa defense having to focus some attention on him which will open up the passing game for Alouettes QB Vernon Adams. For the Redblacks, it is Dominique Davis at QB and he has plenty of playmaking ability but must cut down on his mistakes as he has thrown too many interceptions. Davis was stronger in the first two games and I look for him to bounce back after he and the Redblacks ran into a buzzsaw when they faced the Blue Bombers last week. Keep in mind, Winnipeg won again last night and the 4-0 Bombers are the only undefeated team in the league and they are allowing just 19.8 points per game. Now Ottawa can take advantage of a Montreal team that is allowing 34 points per game. A lot of playmakers on the field in this one and I expect the early market move in this one to prove false as this game flies over the total. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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07-12-19 | Toronto v. Winnipeg OVER 51 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts @ 8:30 ET - With the Argonauts and Blue Bombers both entering this match-up off back to back unders, most will be looking that way in this game. However, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings in Winnipeg have gone over the total. The Blue Bombers have averaged 40 points per game in their last 3 games hosting the Argos. Toronto enters this game doing a good job through the air on offense except they don't have the points to show for it. That is leading to some value here as they could get overlooked by the Blue Bombers as Winnipeg is off a big road win last week and now facing a winless non-conference opponents. These are the types of games where defenses get overconfident and overlook an opponent and it would not surprise to see Winnipeg's D expecting this to be a cakewalk at home and then they end up being surprised. One thing is for sure though, Blue Bombers offense should enjoy a huge game here as the Argonauts are allowing 378 passing yards per game this season! Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols left last game with a neck injury but is probable for this game. Toronto QB James Franklin is current out but McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for over 300 yards in last week's game. The Argonauts points will finally be commensurate with their yardage output in this game but their leaky D won't be able to stop the potent Blue Bomber attack. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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07-11-19 | Edmonton v. BC +4.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 BC Lions (+) vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 10 PM ET - Everyone is down on the Lions right now and, that is why, once the first line was posted at Eskimos -2.5, everyone jumped all over Edmonton and the line shot up to as high as a -5. I love the value with the home dog BC in this one. Yes, the Lions finally got their first win last week and it was an unimpressive 1-point win over the Argonauts. However, getting that first win (no matter how ugly) was key. Keep in mind they faced a desperate Argos team and it was on the road and a win is a win as they say! That being the case, BC also might have been peeking ahead at this revenge game with the Eskimos. Keep in mind the Lions got drilled at Edmonton already this season and BC quarterback Mike Reilly and the Lions would like revenge against his former team (and a division rival). I like the fact that BC has revenge here, they are at home, and they got their running game going big-time last week with John White having a huge game. The Lions are 10-4 (both SU and ATS) the last 14 times they've hosted Edmonton. Overall, BC is 7-3 SU in its last 10 home games and I am happy to get them here at home plus get some points! As for Edmonton, they are on a 3-6 ATS run their last 9 games. Also, the Eskimos are 1-4 ATS (and 0-5 SU!) in their last 5 road games! The Lions haven't been at home since their season opener 4 weeks ago and they will make the most of this opportunity. Even though Edmonton is off a bye week, their history of struggles on the road can not be ignored and the Lions have momentum after last week's win. 10* BC Lions |
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07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto OVER 54.5 | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - A match-up of two winless teams and the oddsmakers set this total in the upper 50s for a reason. You don't think the oddsmakers know that the Argonauts have averaged just 10.5 points per game in their first two games? Of course they do. But yet the betting markets are jumping all over the under in this game even though the Lions have allowed at least 33 points in all 3 of their games. Yes, BC is 0-3 on the season but they do have Mike Reilly at QB and they've been putting up some big points. The Lions should have no trouble with the Argos defense (especially with Toronto on a short week as they just played Monday) but the issue for BC is a leaky defense. Yes, the Argos have been ugly so far on offense but they will be better in what is just their 2nd home game this season. Toronto got shell-shocked in their first home game as they were the only team that didn't play in week one (bye week) and then got blasted in week two. Then in week three the Argos ran into a buzzsaw as they faced an angry Roughriders team that was 0-2 and playing their home opener. That led to an ugly loss for Toronto. I am saying there is a reason the Argos have scored so few points this season and I am saying the oddsmakers had it right with a bigger number on this game and we should see this one get into the 60s for totals points scored as the over improves to 4-0 in Lions games this season. BC went 5-2 to the over in July games the past two seasons. Toronto is 12-7 to the over when playing with 6 or less days of rest. The Argonauts are 8-4 to the over when they are a home underdog. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg +4 v. Ottawa | Top | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - There is still an East-West dichotomy in the CFL in my opinion and it favors the West. This match-up is a good example of that as the Blue Bombers have gone 6-2 against East Division foes each of the last two seasons. As for the Redblacks, they managed a 5-5 mark against West Division foes last season and an ugly 3-6-1 mark against the West the prior season. As you can see that means Winnipeg is 12-4 the past two seasons in non-divisional action while Ottawa is 8-11-1 in non-divisional action. That said, and considering the Redblacks have some injury issues on defense here, I am happy to grab the generous points being offered to the Blue Bombers. Even though Ottawa is off a bye week, they are actually 1-5 ATS the past two seasons when off a bye. Also, the Redblacks are 5-11 ATS as a home favorite. Ottawa's QB has put up some solid numbers in the first two weeks but has also thrown too many interceptions. Winnipeg has a solid Matt Nichols at QB. Also, the Blue Bombers are 14-7 ATS their last 21 road games. With Montreal upsetting Hamilton last night, these two teams tonight are the last of the unbeatens. Even though Ottawa is 2-0 the Redblacks two wins have both been extremely tight (3 and 4 points) which, in addition to the above, is another reason I love having the underdog Blue Bombers in this match-up. 10* WINNIPEG |
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07-04-19 | Hamilton v. Montreal +12.5 | Top | 29-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Alouettes are 0-2 this season and got blasted last week at Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are 3-0 this season and have delivered back to back blowout wins the past two weeks. It looks easy to lay the points with the road team here, right? Of course it does and in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of this one. I am grabbing the ugly home dog here with Montreal. The fact is that, after last week's blowout win in this same match-up at Hamilton, the Tiger-Cats could very easily get caught looking right past the Alouettes. That's because the Ti-Cats have a huge game at home next week against Calgary. Sure that is a non-divisional match-up but if you don't think Hamilton is looking forward to hosting the defending Grey Cup Champion Stampeders you are mistaken. Montreal managed to hold the Tiger-Cats scoreless in the first quarter of last week's game but then the wheels came off. Keep in mind, this is Montreal's home opener. They are the last team in the CFL to get a home game this season and I expect them to make the most of it. Their defense will perform better for a longer period of time in this game as the home field makes a big difference. We're also getting line value here as this line is the same as it was last week even though the venue has shifted north. Of course the reason it didn't adjust by 6 or 7 points like it normally would is because of last week's final score in this match-up but the point is that this is giving us extra value here with the home dog. Also, as they showed in Week 1 at Edmonton, the Als have the ability to score late points and make things interesting which also means the back-door cover opportunity is there should we need it in this one. I actually think we won't though as I expect the Alouettes to keep this one tight all the way. Hamilton has lost 18 of their last 23 visits to Montreal SU. The Als are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. They'll be the type of scrappy home dog I love to see in this Thursday match-up. 10* MONTREAL |
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07-01-19 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10 | Top | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #688 Monday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - This line was up near 14 when lines first came out. It is now down to 10 as of early game day morning and I love the value with the home favorite here. Yes, the Roughriders are 0-2 to start the season but this is their first home game of the new season. Also, the teams that Saskatchewan lost to are now a combined 5-0 on the season and the Riders lost each game by just a single possession. Toronto, on the other hand, has played only one game but they got absolutely annihilated by a 50 point margin and that was on their home field no less. Keep in mind, the Argonauts went 0-9 SU in road games last season! Even in their miracle season in 2017 that saw them come together at just the right time for a Grey Cup title, the Argos went 3-6 in regular season road games. Simply put, Toronto is not a good road team and Saskatchewan is arguably the toughest place to play in the league. That said, I expect this one to get ugly quick and, with how angry the Roughriders are, the home team is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one. That is bad news for a Toronto defense that allowed a TD on SEVEN straight possessions during last week's embarrassing loss. The Argonauts are on a 4-9 ATS run as a road underdog. The Roughriders went a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they entered a game off consecutive SU losses. This one has home blowout written all over it as Cody Fajardo played very well last week in place of injured starting QB Zach Collaros and Fajardo and Company will slice and dice this Argos defense while Toronto's futility on offense allows the Riders defense to shine in this one at home. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-29-19 | BC v. Calgary UNDER 53.5 | Top | 32-36 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - The over cashed in plenty in Weeks 1 and 2 of this CFL season but we've now seen 2 straight unders here in Week 3 and I am forecasting another one on Saturday evening in Alberta. The last 5 meetings between these teams have all resulted in an under. Additionally, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams in Calgary have resulted in an under. Yes the over is 2-0 in Lions games this season and the Stamps only game thus far also went over the total. However, I see both teams emphasizing the ground game more in this one and also I expect a huge defensive effort from both teams. The Stampeders let one get away in their week one loss. The defense feels responsibility for that as they were up by 12 after just 1 quarter and couldn't get the job done. Additionally, Calgary got outscored 11-0 in the 4th quarter of that game. Look for the defending champs, having taken advantage of the bye week, to come up with a much stronger effort defensively in this game plus to do a lit bit more "grinding of the clock" by utilizing the ground game more in this one. BC is off to a tough start this season as prized offseason acquisition QB Mike Reilly has struggled. The Lions know they need to take some pressure off him by utilizing their ground game a little bit more. BC also knows that the Stamps D proved susceptible to the run in their week one loss. That said, we're going to see some ground game from both teams in this one and that will help it stay under the rather inflated number on this one. The last 5 meetings between these teams have averaged a total of only 41 points. Prior to the Stampeders surprising week one result, the O/U was on a 4-16 run in Stamps games in the month of June. As for the Lions, prior to last week's over, the O/U was on a 4-9 run when BC was off a loss to a divisional foe in the prior week. Look for those trends to resume here as the 6th straight under occurs between these teams on Saturday. 10* UNDER the total in Calgary |
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06-28-19 | Montreal v. Hamilton -12.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - The Als managed to rally for the cover in their week one ATS win in a 7 point loss at Edmonton. The Eskimos did have a big lead in that game but then relaxed some and Montreal got back into it. The Alouettes will face a much tougher challenge here because the Tiger-Cats regular season home finale (and fan appreciation day) was ruined by a loss to the Als in early November last year. How did Montreal do it? The situation was helped by the fact that it was a meaningless game for the Ti-Cats as their post-season position for the following week was already set. All the same, Hamilton has been thinking plenty about that loss as they have been preparing for this rematch opportunity. The odds makers hung a 14 on this game but bettors have knocked it down a bit. That has led to value on the hungry and undefeated home favorite here. Hamilton is 2-0 and rolling early this season while the Alouettes organization entered this campaign in full disarray with a late head coaching change (right before the season) among other distractions. Keep in mind, prior to that loss to the Als in the most recent meeting, the 3 prior games had seen Hamilton win all 3 by an average margin of victory of 33 points! Another bloodbath likely here! Montreal is 3-16 SU in their last 19 road games. As for the Tiger-Cats covering the big number here, note that they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. 10* HAMILTON |
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06-27-19 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg UNDER 58.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 8:30 ET - With all 3 games flying over the total last week as well as the fact that 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams in Winnipeg have gone over the total, we're seeing a lot of upward movement on this total. It is up to a 58.5 and I feel we're getting great line value here with the under as a result. This is a divisional battle. Edmonton has allowed 25 points or less in each of their first two games this season. Winnipeg was off last week so their D is well rested and they allowed only 23 points in their Week 1 victory over BC. So with a total in the upper 50s and the fact both these teams have proven the ability to run the ball and both teams having proven they can play some defense too, this one has the makings of a solid under. Note that 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points have resulted in an under. Also, the under has cashed in an incredible 27 of 35 times when the Eskimos are on the road in a game with a posted total of 56 points or more. This, of course, is the Blue Bombers first time this season coming off a bye week. That is a situation that saw the under go a PERFECT 4-0 the past two seasons. Take advantage of the big number here and look for this one fall well short of it. 10* UNDER the total in Winnipeg |
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06-22-19 | Hamilton v. Toronto +4 | Top | 64-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 4 ET - The Argonauts have a new head coach but certainly he is not new to Toronto. In fact it is Corey Chamblin and he was previously the Argos defensive coordinator. This included their run to the Grey Cup Title in 2017. That said, with Toronto having a bye in week one, they have had plenty of time to prepare for their season opener at home this week against Hamilton. I like the fact that the Tiger-Cats have seen the line double here. Hamilton opened up as a 2 point choice but is now a 4-point favorite as of early game day morning. This means extra value for the home dog Argonauts. That said, you also know that there is plenty of motivation for Chamblin's defense to put the stops on a Tiger-Cats offense led by QB Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton enters this season with expectations to be a top team in the east and the Argonauts are highly motivated to make a statement about that right here. Additionally, I like the fact that the Ti-Cats were outgained by over 100 yards on the ground last week. Hamilton won despite a huge yardage deficit on the ground and, keep in mind, Masoli didn't exactly light it up either. He was held to 169 yards through the air and that was against a Saskatchewan team that then allowed 44 points at Ottawa this week. In other words, don't be surprised when the Argonauts give the Ti-Cats a helluva test here and either win the game outright or lose by 3 points or less. Hamilton is 3-11 SU and ATS in Saturday games the past two seasons. The fact that the Tiger-Cats won all three meetings last season is even more reason to go with the hungry, revenge-minded home underdog here. 10* TORONTO |
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06-21-19 | BC v. Edmonton -3 | Top | 23-39 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #692 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) vs BC Lions @ 9 ET - The home team won and covered all 3 meetings last season. This match-up opened up at a -4.5 and has dropped to a -3 and I love the value we're being offered here with Edmonton. The Lions QB is former Eskimo Mike Reilly. Certainly he would love to get a win over his former team but don't forget that the Eskimos defense also has some added motivation here. Also, even though Reilly had some strong stats in in his first start for BC last week, he did also throw two picks. Note that Reilly's replacement in Edmonton, Trevor Harris, had a massive game for the Eskimos last week. Also, Edmonton's ground attack was solid with CJ Gable running for over 150 yards on 20 carries. The Eskimos have the home field edge and the running game edge as the Lions rushing attack last week was non-existent. That said, Harris was the better QB than Reilly last week in each teams respective season opener. Even if Reilly outplays Harris in this match-up, the Eskimos have the other key edges that should still lead to a home victory. Considering that as well as the value with this line down to a -3 and the small home fave is the play in this one. 10* EDMONTON |
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06-20-19 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 43.5 | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7:30 ET - Line moves are funny sometimes, even in the CFL. The odds makers, of course, knew about the Zach Collaros (Riders QB) injury and yet they set the total on this game at 49.5 with that in mind. The betting markets are indicating that was a horrible number and the total has now plummeted a full 6 points down to 43.5 as of early game day morning. Long-time followers know I love grabbing the value in contrarian situations like this as, let us not kid ourselves, the fact is the odds makers are quite sharp! The Redblacks are certainly going to be geared up for their home (and season) opener! At the same time, the Roughriders are ready to bounce back (even without Collaros) after losing a tight one 23-17 last week. Keep in mind he got hurt early on in that game so the Riders already have had some time playing without him. That will help them this week but they're going to struggle to stop Ottawa's offense in this one. Note that the over went 4-1 in Redblacks June games the past two seasons. Also, the over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. This one is all about the line value but certainly includes match-up value and situational value. Big game for the Redblacks for the home fans but look for the Riders to match them score for score. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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06-15-19 | Ottawa +8.5 v. Calgary | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #685 Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - A rematch of last year's Grey Cup and I like having the big points on my side here considering all the off-season changes for both of these teams. Yes, Calgary has won 7 straight home openers and also defeated Ottawa in all 3 meetings last season. However, there were wholesale changes for both teams coming into this season. That said, I like the fact that Redblacks defense has more continuity than the Stampeders defense heading into this season. Ottawa's defense remains mostly intact from last season in terms of personnel and they are responding well to defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe heading into the season. The Stamps also have a new defensive coordinator this season but their situation is much more complicated. Former Calgary defensive coordinator DeVone Claybrooks is now the head coach of the BC Lions. New Stamps DC Brett Monson has a tall task in front of him as the Stampeders lost more than half their starters from the unit that won the Grey Cup last season. As an underdog, Ottawa has gone a fantastic 15-6 ATS the past two seasons. The Redblacks are also a fantastic 11-2 ATS in June games. Ottawa is 13-5 ATS in road games the past two seasons and Calgary is an ugly 1-4 ATS the past two seasons in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. The turnover ratio was 12 to 4 last season in favor of the Stamps which played a key role in the Redblacks going 0-3 ATS in their 3 meetings. That poor ATS record is also part of the reason this line has jumped from 6.5 to 8.5 on Calgary. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the line move and grabbing the extra value per all the reasons noted above. 10* OTTAWA |
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06-14-19 | Montreal v. Edmonton OVER 51 | Top | 25-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9 ET - Major changes for both teams in terms of personnel heading into this season. Additionally, a sudden coaching change for the Alouettes occurred only about a week before the season got underway as Montreal is now being coached by their offensive coordinator and the Mike Sherman stint - a short one - is finished in Quebec. With all the changes I am expecting some breakdowns in this game. Both teams could be mistake-prone which can lead to some big plays. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points for the Eskimos. Also, the last 3 meetings between these teams all resulted in an over. Not only did each game go over, each one totaled at least 64 points and flew over the total by a double digit margin. Both teams have made changes at QB heading into this season and Edmonton is known for their offensive production while the Als have much to prove and now have their offensive coordinator calling the shots as the head coach. The result should be plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |