Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-20-15 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals -3 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 116 h 38 m | Show | |
The Bengals are better than perceived. They are solid on both sides of the ball without any major weaknesses. |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -5 | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 115 h 24 m | Show | |
The Steelers are a much better team than San Francisco and catch a huge scheduling break. |
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09-20-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 v. New Orleans Saints | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 37 h 32 m | Show | |
The Saints are getting by on reputation considering how big of a spread this is. |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -122 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
The Eagles certainly looked sharp in preseason steamrolling the Colts, Ravens and Packers. Now looking good during preseason doesn't necessarily equate to an opening week win, but in the Eagles' case it's not a fluke. Philadelphia has achieved double-digit victories during each of Chip Kelly's first two years. Now, in Year 3 of Kelly's super high octane offense, the Eagles look the best they ever had under Kelly. The Eagles' defensive front seven has been upgraded, the secondary is fortified with quality depth at the nickel and dime spots and Sam Bradford is the most talented quarterback Kelly has had at Philadelphia. The Eagles also have the finest running back trio of any team led by defending rushing champion DeMarco Murray. The Eagles are ready to state their Super Bowl case with an offense that has yet to be stopped. The Falcons don't have nearly the defense to slow down Philadelphia. Defensive guru Dan Quinn, formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, makes his head coaching debut for Atlanta. Quinn is trying to overhaul the worst defense in the league from a year ago, a defense that recorded only 22 sacks. Quinn is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Atlanta's defense, at best, is a work in progress right now. Quinn brings excellent credentials. However, this is way too tough of a test and way too early for the Falcons to show the necessary major defensive steps to stop the Eagles' already-in-sync powerhouse offense that is better with the highly accurate Bradford. The Falcons are going to need to trade points with the Eagles, matching them score for score. I don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones get a lot of media attention. They are outstanding. I rate Jones as the best wide receiver in the NFC. But the Falcons have a very suspect offensive line that also is learning a new system and Atlanta also lacks a polished ground attack. The Eagles' first three running backs - Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles - are all better than anything the Falcons have at running back. The Eagles not only hold edges offensively and defensively, but on special teams, too. Atlanta's home field isn't nearly enough to compensate for any of that. The spread is cheap here. Lay it. |
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09-13-15 | Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Oakland Raiders | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 196 h 22 m | Show | |
There can be a tendency to overthink sometimes especially in the NFL. This game is an example of this. |
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09-13-15 | Green Bay Packers -6.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 193 h 56 m | Show |
The Packers have Jay Cutler's number. Cutler has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, which has dominated at Solder Field winning 18 of the last 22 times there. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 19 times in 10 games. Cutler has a strong arm and is not without talent, but he's a head case and the Packers are inside his head. |
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09-10-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots -6.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 54 m | Show |
When these two teams last met two years ago at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots buried the Steelers, 55-31. That was the most points the Steelers allowed in their 81-year history. Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns helping the Patriots pile up a staggering 610 yards. Now it's two years later. And guess what? Pittsburgh's defense is far more inexperienced and worse than what it was in 2013. Troy Polamalu and Dick LeBeau are gone, too. The Patriots received a huge mental lift with Brady's suspension overturned, while the Steelers experienced a huge mental jolt after not expecting Brady to see the field. It has been a rough off-season and preseason for Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey with a broken leg. Star running back Le'Veon Bell is suspended. So is promising wide receiver Martavis Bryant. The Steelers' defense has looked terrible giving massive indications they are going to struggle. This is the 14th opening Thursday kickoff game. The home team has won 11 of the first 13. The Steelers have only covered one of their last nine September games. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 229 h 48 m | Show |
New England has a strong offense and a decent-to-good defense. Seattle has the best defense I've seen since the 1985-86 Bears and a mediocre offense with the exception of a top-four running back, Marshawn Lynch, and a big-play quarterback, Russell Wilson, who rates with Aaron Rodgers (when healthy) and Andrew Luck as the only quarterbacks who can beat you three ways - with their arm, brain and feet. |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 105 | 151 h 56 m | Show |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 39 m | Show |
Seattle has the NFL's best defense in nearly 30 years. There is no way the Packers can dent it with Aaron Rodgers on one leg and playing at CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are 25-2 SU, 19-7-1 ATS the past three years. |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -105 | 154 h 51 m | Show |
The Broncos rate a level higher than the Colts. Throw in a rested, home-field advantage and I see Denver winning this game by double-digits. |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I give Dallas plenty of credit. But I'm not sold on them. They lack talent on defense and are in a position they haven't been in during their present regime - being asked to cover a touchdown in the playoffs with all the pressure and Super Bowl hype surrounding them. It's rare to get this many points with a defense as good as Detroit and with as many good skill position players it has. The key for Dallas is DeMarco Murray. His running sets up Tony Romo and keeps the Cowboys' vulnerable defense off the field. Murray led the NFL in rushing, but he is playing with a surgically repaired hand and had a full workload during the regular season. The Cowboys are playing on short rest this week. The Lions have the No. 1 run defense giving up less than 70 yards on the ground. Detroit also ranks No. 2 in total defense. Only two teams gave up fewer than the 17.6 points the Lions give up per game. The Lions' secondary is vastly improved. Matthew Stafford didn't have an outstanding season, but he's a far above average quarterback and has one of the best wide receiving tandems in the NFL with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Johnson is healthy again making him arguably the best wide receiver in the league. When the teams met last year, Johnson burned the Cowboys for 14 catches for 329 yards operating against the same cornerbacks Dallas has now. Detroit won that game. Reggie Bush gives Stafford an edge runner and dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
OK, factor in three points for home field advantage for Pittsburgh. Le'Veon Bell isn't going to play. Now does that make these teams even? I say no. The points are worth laying because the Steelers are in much better current form and have the superior quarterback. Baltimore's offense is in a slump, its offensive line is banged-up and its defensive backfield highly vulnerable due to injuries that have wiped out five cornerbacks. Since beating Pittsburgh at home in Week 2, the Ravens have yet to defeat a foe with a winning record going 0-5. Ben Roethlisberger is having his finest season. The Steelers average 27.2 points, 411.1 yards and 301.6 yards passing per game. The Ravens can't match that especially on the road where they have a history of playing much worse. Roethlisberger lit them up six touchdown passes in a 43-23 win in early November at Heinz Field. Even without Bell, Roethlisberger has enough weapons to take advantage of the Ravens' battered, vulnerable secondary. Note, too, that Bell was averaging just 2.7 yards per rush in his last three games worn down by 373 touches. The Steelers have three running backs with fresh legs who will be made to look good by the Ravens' safeties committing to helping out in the passing game rather than moving up in the box. Joe Flacco has had one good quarter in his last three games. He needs a good ground attack to be effective. That's not likely to happen. The Steelers have gotten healthier on defense while the Ravens will be without left tackle Eugene Monroe. Baltimore's only decent running back, Justin Forsett, is worn down after a career-high 235 carries. He had a combined 115 rushing attempts the past three seasons. Forsett hasn't broken the 72-yard rushing mark in three of the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has held nine of its last 10 foes to fewer than 100 yards on the ground. |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 58 h 26 m | Show |
This is my NFC Game of the Year and here is why: The Panthers are playing their best ball down the stretch inspired by Cam Newton, who is back running and not just sitting in the pocket, and getting much improved play from both their offensive and defensive lines. Their secondary also has gotten faster with a switch to younger defensive backs. Carolina is giving up an average of 13.3 points during its last three games in beating the Saints, Buccaneers and Browns. Carolina also has a strong history under Ron Rivera in December going 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS. New England is the only team with more December victories during this span. The Falcons aren't nearly good enough to lay this many points in a winner-take-all division setting. They can't rush the passer and their secondary took a hit last week with the loss of safety William Moore. The Panthers can key on Matt Ryan, who is playing behind a makeshift offensive line and lacking a ground attack made worse with Steven Jackson not likely to play. |
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12-28-14 | NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins -5.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -115 | 93 h 28 m | Show | |
The Jets played their Super Bowl for Rex Ryan last Sunday and nearly upset the Patriots. I don't see New York having the motivation in this meaningless matchup to put forth a second consecutive strong effort especially visiting sunny South Florida. Without a strong game, the Jets can't stay close on the scoreboard. Geno Smith is just a killer for the Jets with his many mistakes and turnovers. Smith isn't going to have Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and probably is going to be missing Percy Harvin, too. The Dolphins have a strong defense. They came very close to making the playoffs. Miami is 8-7. If not for late blown leads against three playoff teams - Packers, Lions and Broncos - Miami would be sitting at 11-4 and this line would be much higher. Ryan Tannehill is having his strongest season. The Jets give up more than 25 points a game with a battered, overmatched secondary. There's a class difference here. The Dolphins are unified with Joe Philbin returning as head coach, being at home and catching the Jets at an opportune time. (Editor's note: Long-time pro Stephen Nover is heating up as he goes for his 19th winning NFL season in the last 21 years. Stephen is 7-1 the past two weeks on his NFL premium and free plays and has his NFC Game of the Year going Sunday.) |
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12-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. NY Giants | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
The Eagles are flawed, but they still are the better team here. The key is will they play hard? Knowing Chip Kelly the Eagles will. Kelly is taking this game serious. He could have given Matt Barkley a chance, but he won't. |
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12-28-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +6 | 44-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
Dallas doesn't need this game and figures to be resting banged-up Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray for much of the game. Without those two Dallas can't play ball control and protect their vulnerable defense, which has a talent deficiency. The Redskins have the skill position talent at receiver and running back to take advantage. Robert Griffin III and the rest of the Redskins received a huge jolt of confidence with last week's upset win against the Eagles. The Redskins will be motivated for this long-standing division rivalry matchup. They have covered the past four years hosting Dallas. Jobs are at stake for many of the Redskins. They should be hard here while the Cowboys are in a letdown spot having ended their four-year playoff drought by burying the Colts last week. |
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12-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 v. Houston Texans | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Houston isn't strong enough to lay double-digits with fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum, who is 1-8 as a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Jaguars have shown a respectable defense and a no-quit attitude under defensive-minded Gus Bradley. Only four teams have more sacks than Jacksonville. Sure Houston is still alive for a playoff spot - albeit a long shot - but Jacksonville also has motivation. This is a division rivalry made more intense by many of the Jacksonville players close ties to Texas. The Jaguars have revenge and extra preparation and rest time having played last Thursday. They have covered in three of the last four meetings with the Texans. The Jaguars are extremely young on offense starting six rookies, including quarterback Blake Bortles. But these young players have some experience now and fresher legs. Bortles has cut back on his dreadful number of turnovers getting picked off just twice in the last four games on 140 attempts with one coming on a desperate fourth down pass against Baltimore. |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 136 h 15 m | Show | |
Bruce Arians has done a masterful job coaching the Cardinals up this season, but he's drawing dead here because of his quarterback situation. Seattle has gotten healthy on defense. The result is the Seahawks' dominant defense of last season is back as good as ever. The Cardinals can't compete against it down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who doesn't have the ability. Since Carson Palmer went down, the Cardinals have only managed four touchdowns in five games. They lack a ground game to take the pressure off Lindley and Larry Fitzgerald hasn't been 100 percent. Arizona would be hard-pressed to put up points against a mediocre defense let alone the top one in the league right now. Seattle has allowed just 27 points during the last four weeks. Seattle is peaking, playing its best ball winning and covering its last four games, including defeating these same Cardinals, 19-3, when Arizona had Drew Stanton at quarterback. Stanton is bad. But Lindley is even worse. Seattle is 18-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record. Russell Wilson has the mobility to escape Arizona's pass rush and make big plays with his feet and arm. He's also very good at not turning the ball over. He's accounted for six touchdowns in the last four games with no interceptions. The Seahawks can wear Arizona's defense down running Marshawn Lynch while effectively burning the Cardinals' secondary with play-action passes. |
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12-21-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Oakland Raiders +7 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Oakland has won its last two home games in convincing style against the Chiefs and 49ers. Those teams are at least as good if not better than Buffalo. So the Raiders are capable - when home like they are here. The Bills are a feisty group that must produce an "A" effort such as they did last week in upsetting Green Bay to do well. But this is a brutal spot for Buffalo. The Bills are not a good road team and are traveling cross-country after one of their most satisfying victories of the season. It's the first time this season the Bills are road chalk and they are laying a touchdown with a bad quarterback. Kyle Orton is an over-the-hill game manager who does have the savvy to rely on his defense rather than take chances and attack defenses. He's not the type of quarterback who can cover margins like this, though, especially on the road. The Raiders can keep Buffalo's fierce pass rushers off Derek Carr because they have a talented running back they have underutilized up to this point - Latavius Murray. He's fresh and ready. |
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12-21-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Houston Texans +6 | 13-25 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
The Ravens and Joe Flacco aren't strong enough to lay this many points on the road against this quality of an opponent. The Texans can rush the passer with J.J. Watt and run the ball with Arian Foster. Flacco is at his worst on the road and when being pressured. The Ravens are minus suspended run-stuff nose guard Haloti Ngata. They can't commit to stopping the run because their secondary is decimated with injuries and is a major vulnerable area. The line is this high because the Texans are down to fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans have weapons, though, with Andre Johnson back from a concussion. It would just be an added plus if DeAndre Hopkins can play. Keenum has experience with the Texans. He also has the multi-talented Foster to rely on. |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +10 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Jimmy Clausen doesn't come close to matching Jay Cutler's talent level, but the Bears are going to play very hard in this division matchup because of the quarterback change. Clausen does have weapons - Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett - and will be coached up by Marc Trestman, whose strength is coaching quarterbacks. Clausen isn't a scared rookie, but a veteran. He had an excellent preseason completing 64.9 percent for 7.6 YPA and two touchdowns. I believe he'll do fine for this particular game at home and with a rare motivated effort from the Bears. The Lions may let down having clinched a playoff berth yesterday following the Eagles' loss to the Redskins and knowing how dysfunctional the Bears have been, a team they destroyed on Thanksgiving by 17 points. Detroit is just 4-16 ATS as road chalk and has covered only five of 16 times on grass. The Lions also have a horrible track record in December covering just three of their past 15 games in that month. |
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12-14-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 119 h 32 m | Show |
Brian Hoyer has not been playing well, but I can't envision a battle-tested veteran Bengals secondary that has permitted just 14 touchdown passes all year getting beat by untested rookie Johnny Manziel making his first start. It's going to be difficult for the Browns to retain their full concentration this week because of all the publicity Manziel's first start brings. The Browns play hard and their defense is better than their statistics, but they are not in the Bengals' class. Only once all season has Cleveland outgained a foe at home. There is zero chance of defensive-minded Marvin Lewis taking the Browns lightly after Cleveland embarrassed Cincinnati, 24-3, during the Thursday night Week 10 matchup. The Bengals haven't seen Manziel, but they have seen the Browns' offense now. Andy Dalton has been sacked just 16 times. Only Peyton Manning has been sacked fewer times among starting quarterback. Dalton has his full complement of weapons back, including a now healthy A.J. Green, who has 33 receptions and three 100-yard games during his past four games with three touchdowns. |
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12-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers -8 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 37 m | Show |
If there is one team more dysfunctional than the 49ers it's the Raiders. Oakland doesn't have the talent to keep within single digits of the 49ers and its home field advantage is reduced because of the closeness to San Francisco. The Raiders have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 home contests. The 49ers' offense has been slumping, hurt by Colin Kaepernick's regression in the passing game and the strange play-calling of Greg Roman. But the 49ers still have way too many weapons for the overmatched Oakland defense to keep track of. The 49ers' defense, though, still remains top-rate. The Raiders rank last in points per game, yards and rushing. |
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12-07-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 v. Detroit Lions | 17-34 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
The Buccaneers have been tough on the road covering four of their last five away matchups. They beat Pittsburgh, defeated the Redskins by 20 and took the Saints to overtime.Only once in their last nine games have the Bucs lost by more than 10 points. In six of those games, the Bucs had a chance to win during the final quarter. The key for the Buccaneers is huge defensive improvement as Lovie Smith's Cover 2 schemes - difficult to pick up at first - are assimilated. Since the midway point of the season, the Bucs ranked first in the league in yards per pass allowed and are fifth in sack percentage. Until blasting the defensive-challenged Bears on Thanksgiving, the Lions hadn't broken the 24-point barrier in 10 consecutive games. The Lions are fat and happy right now after destroying the Bears. This is their last non-division regular season game. The Lions have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games when taking on an opponent with a losing road mark. |
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11-30-14 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
The Saints are down this season, but Pittsburgh is not an elite team. Elite teams don't lose to the Buccaneers and Jets. Yes, New Orleans is 1-4 on the road. But three of those four losses were by a combined six points. The last time the Saints were at a cold weather site they beat the Eagles in the playoffs last season. It's not going to be a cold day either in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the 40s. The Steelers are getting reinforced on defense with Troy Polamalu, Ryan Shazier and Ike Taylor likely to return to the lineup. Even with those players, though, the Steelers still are far from having their past dominant defenses. Drew Brees has an underrated running attack with Mark Ingram having a career season. Brees is a top-five quarterback, who will keep the Saints in the game. |
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11-24-14 | NY Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 30 m | Show |
Massive snow in Buffalo have forced this game to be moved to Detroit, causing Buffalo to lose its home field advantage. The Jets are in a much better place now - both offensively and morale-wise - with Michael Vick replacing totally inept Geno Smith. Vick makes the Jets offense respectable now especially with Percy Harvin aboard. The Jets catch a break in that the Bills just lost cornerback Leodis McKelvin for the season. The Jets outgained the Bills when they met in Week 8, but couldn't overcome Smith's quick three interceptions. The Jets are off a bye and have revenge. They aren't going to the playoffs so this division rivalry matchup in a revenge spot is close to their Super Bowl game. Buffalo lost its playoff hope in a span of five days last week with losses to the Chiefs and Dolphins. The Bills haven't scored in their last 21 possessions and rank last in red zone touchdown efficiency. They have failed to score more than 17 points in six of their past eight games. Kyle Orton is far less of a playmaker than Orton. The Jets rank No. 4 in run defense. The Jets' strength is their defensive front seven. |
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11-23-14 | Washington Redskins v. San Francisco 49ers -9 | 13-17 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Washington has lost 15 of its last 18 games. The Redskins are down - and they are not getting up. The Redskins' offense is a mess because Robert Griffith III has just become a glorified checkdown machine unable to fully come back from devastating injuries and in the wrong offensive system. The 49ers still have an upper-tier defense and their pass rush has become far more dangerous with the return of Aldon Smith. The 49ers are going to generate plenty of points versus a Washington defense that allows nearly 26 points a game and is minus its best pass rusher, Brian Orakpo, and best cornerback, DeAngelo Hall. This also is a terrible spot for the Redskins traveling cross-country following a horrendous 20-point home loss to Tampa Bay. |
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11-23-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Philadelphia Eagles -11 | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Not only do the Eagles have the high-powered, quick-tempo offense to blow out the Titans, but they are in a great spot to do it. The Eagles are off an embarrassing road loss to Green Bay. The Titans are off an emotional and well-played game and effort this past Monday at home where they nearly upset the Steelers. Now the Titans have to travel to a very hostile environment on a short week with a young team in an all-out rebuilding stage. I don't see them being able to sustain that type of effort, which is more than needed against this strong of an opponent. The Titans have the second-worst run defense in the league and their offense isn't set up to play from behind. Rookie quarterback Zack Mettenberger has no mobility. The Eagles have 33 sacks and will be applying plenty of heat. The Titans need to stay on the ground to set up Mettenberger, but their defense is going to have problems with the Eagles' fast pace that keeps opponents from substituting. The Eagles have forced at least one turnover in 21 of their last 22 games. They also have the best special teams in the NFL. The Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. They have won only once during their past nine games. |
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11-23-14 | Cincinnati Bengals +2 v. Houston Texans | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
Cincinnati isn't as intimidating on the road, but the Bengals still are a clear level about Houston especially with Arian Foster not looking like he's going to play. The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. This is Ryan Mallett's first home start. He's not going to win games on his own and he lacks mobility. The Bengals can generate pressure and have a veteran defense that has been reinforced with some key players back from injury. Houston does not have an explosive offense. The Texans have yet to throw for 300 yards in a game. Foster is their key, but he's grounded by hamstring, groin and knee problems. The Bengals are strong on pass defense. Andy Dalton is helped by a return to health of A.J. Green, a top-five receiver. The Texans have no one who can handle him. Jeremy Hill has provided solid ground work rushing for 361 yards the last three games, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. So Dalton isn't forced to carry the load. |
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11-17-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The Titans get a rare home chance on the national stage tonight, but they are not good enough to keep this matchup close. The Steelers are off an embarrassing flat spot against the Jets. Don't look for the Steelers to be down a second straight week. Ben Roethlisberger has been red-hot and he should get good infantry support for the first time in three games as the Titans rank 29th versus the run. Ken Whisenhunt has made no bones about the Titans being in a rebuilding year. He's switched to sixth-round rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The Steelers have some defensive injuries, but Mettenberger isn't ready yet to be an effective NFL starting quarterback. He's hurt by not having a lick of mobility and holding the ball too long. Mettenberger isn't likely to have injured tight end and security blanket Delanie Walker, who leads the Titans in receiving yards and touchdowns. Under wily defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers are 18-2 facing rookie quarterbacks. The Titans have a terrible track record covering just two of their last 14 games. They have lost eight of their last 10 home games and are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 home matchups. |
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11-16-14 | Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 20-24 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 25 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are similar to the Seahawks in that they are run-oriented and play good defense. They just aren't as good as Seattle and Alex Smith isn't nearly as good as Russell Wilson. The Seahawks' offense has picked up with the return to health of left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger. It wasn't a fluke the Seahawks rushed for 350 yards against the Giants last week with those two stud offensive linemen back in the lineup. The Seahawks run the ball well and stop the run. They lead the league in yards per carry and are tied for first in giving up the fewest yards per rush. The Chiefs rank 30th in giving up yards per run. The strength of their defense is edge pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Because of Wilson, the Chiefs can't stack the line either keying just on Marshawn Lynch. Seattle can stack the box against Jamaal Charles, though, because the Chiefs have no downfield passing game. Alex Smith has the lowest yards per throw of any quarterback during the past five years. He has yet to connect with a wide receiver for a touchdown this season. The Chiefs are not well rounded enough to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions. |
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11-16-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -2.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Now that the line has come down under a field goal I'm going to get involved with the Bears. There is tremendous urgency for Chicago in this matchup. The Bears' season is at stake and possibly the future of Marc Trestman and Jay Cutler remaining in Chicago. I expect the Bears to play with a great deal of urgency and passion after being embarrassed in their last two games. Those blowout losses, though, came to the Packers and Patriots. The Vikings' offense is light years behind those elite offenses. Minnesota's defense has improved under defensive guru Mike Zimmer. But the Vikings still are vulnerable in the secondary and their offense doesn't scare anyone with rookie Teddy Bridgewater a work in progress. Expect a big game from Jared Allen, an ex-Viking who will be going against his former practice partner tackle Matt Kalil. Cutler and the Bears are better than they have shown. Cutler has the weapons to put up a lot of points against Minnesota. The Vikings haven't won at Soldier Field in seven years. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
OK, the Panthers aren't the defensive team they were a year ago. But they aren't a touchdown worse than the Eagles especially with Philadelphia losing its leader on defense, linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Chip Kelly's fast-break offense gets the publicity. This doesn't tell the whole picture, though. The Eagles' defense wasn't very good even with Ryans giving up 400 or more yards in four of their last six games. The Eagles also don't take care of the ball very well either committing 21 turnovers. They are down to second-string quarterback Mark Sanchez, who never has shown a tendency to be careful with the ball either. This is Sanchez's first start in two years so there could be some rust. He has just five more touchdowns than interceptions in his career. Carolina's offense should pick up against this opponent especially getting back some of their injured starting offensive linemen. Carolina is expected to have back offensive linemen Byron Bell, Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner. The Panthers are on extra rest having played 11 days ago. They are eager to atone for their disappointing season with a strong performance on the national stage. They also have been given second life in the weak NFC South with the Saints getting upset at home this past Sunday by the 49ers. The Eagles have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when hosting an opponent with a losing road record. |
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11-09-14 | Denver Broncos -11 v. Oakland Raiders | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 80 h 42 m | Show | |
I can't see the Raiders staying within two touchdowns of Denver. The Broncos are averaging 30.6 points per game and are No. 2 in the NFL in passing. Peyton Manning is having another monster season on pace to throw for 5,144 yards and 44 touchdowns. Rookie Derek Carr, devoid of weapons and saddled with the worst ground attack by far in the NFL, has no chance of keeping pace. The Raiders rank last in total yards and second-to-last in points per game. Only twice have the Raiders scored more than 14 points in a game. Oakland's defense has recorded just eight sacks and gives up more than 26 points per game. The prideful Broncos are in angry mood after an embarrassing road loss to the Patriots this past Sunday. The Raiders could have the most overrated home field in the NFL. The Raiders have had just one winning ATS season at home since 2004. They haven't had a winning ATS mark as a home 'dog since 2009. The Broncos have beaten the Raiders in Oakland the past three seasons by an average of 17.6 points. |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 16 m | Show |
The Lions have the league's top defense, were idle last week and their offense will get heavily fortified with the expected return of Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and some of their banged-up tight ends. Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback when he has Johnson, who has missed the past three games and is anxious to have his usual big impact. A big key, though, with backing the Lions besides their much improved defense is their new coaching staff headed by Jim Caldwell. The Lions are actually well coached for the first time in years. Caldwell has established discipline and a reduction on penalties and stupid decisions. The Dolphins have a solid defense, too, but their offense can't match the Lions at the skill positions. Lamar Miller is Miami's best running back and he has a shoulder injury. Miller is just an average runner, but he's much better than what the Dolphins have behind him. The Lions rank first in the NFL in fewest yards per game and in scoring defense holding opponents to less than 16 points a game. This is the Dolphins' only dome game and stiffest road challenge. Miami's other road games have been at Buffalo, Oakland in London, at Chicago and Jacksonville. The Bills are 1-3 ATS at home with their lone cover coming in a 29-10 win against the Dolphins. The Raiders have yet to win a game, while the Bears and Jaguars are a combined 1-6 at home. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 3 m | Show |
Cleveland's 5-3 record looks fancy on the surface, but the Browns aren't good enough to keep within a touchdown against a superior opponent in this setting. The Browns last three games have come against the three worst teams in the NFL - Jaguars, Raiders and Buccaneers. Cleveland lost to the Jaguars by 18 points and didn't have an easy time with either the Raiders or Buccaneers nearly losing to one-win Tampa Bay last week. This is the Browns' first national TV game of the season. It comes on a short week on the road against probably the best team in the AFC North. The Browns have lost 17 consecutive division road games having last beaten an AFC North club away from home in 2008. The Bengals are 13-0-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Paul Brown Stadium. They have covered 82 percent of their past 18 home games. Brian Hoyer needs an effective ground attack to be effective. The Browns haven't had that in their last three games since losing star center Alex Mack. Cleveland has averaged just 52.6 yards rushing during this time span. The Browns also are going to be missing their best receiving threat, tight end Jordan Cameron. The Bengals have their best playmaker back in A.J. Green. He makes Andy Dalton much better. Even if Giovani Bernad can't play, the Bengals still have power back Jeremy Hill to exploit the Browns' 31st rush defense. |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +2 | 23-43 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
The Steelers' balanced offense is rolling averaging 40.5 points in their last two games. Ben Roethlisberger has never been hotter. Martavis Bryant has stepped up to give the Steelers a tall wide receiving option to go with Antonio Brown. Baltimore is without its top defensive back, cornerback Jimmy Smith. That leaves the Ravens without a strong cover person to handle Brown, who is an absolute game-changer with 60 receptions for 852 yards and seven touchdowns. The Ravens' defense is far less intimidating when playing on the road. Baltimore has covered just one of its last five away contests and is 1-6-1 ATS during its last eight games versus AFC foes. Pittsburgh has covered seven of its last 10 home games and has revenge for am embarrassing 26-6 loss to the Ravens in Week 2. The Steelers have changed up a lot of things since that defeat and are in a much better place now. The Steelers' defense has been reinforced with the return of nose tackle Steve McLendon and good-looking rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier. |
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11-02-14 | St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -9.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 41 m | Show |
The 49ers are rested and ready to pummel the Rams, a team they beat by two touchdowns just three weeks ago despite playing far from their "A" game. The Rams are decimated by injuries. They were missing their two starting cornerbacks this past Sunday against the Chiefs. They had to use a sixth-round rookie and an undrafted rookie. The 49ers can take advantage with their deep crop of veteran wide receivers. Then against the Chiefs, the Rams lost their leading receiver, Brian Quick, and three starting offensive linemen, including left tackle Jake Long. Austin Davis is struggling as the league studies more film on him. He is playing behind a makeshift offensive line with below average wide receivers and a disappointing ground attack. The Rams stole a game against the Seahawks two weeks ago by coming up with trick plays on special teams. That's not going to work against fiery Jim Harbaugh and his well-coached, veteran 49ers team. |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Houston Texans | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not a fan of the Texans. They have been outgained by an average of nearly 30 yards per game and have played a weak schedule. Their victories have come against the Redskins opening week with a rusty Robert Griffin III at quarterback, Raiders, Bills with E.J. Manuel at quarterback and Titans with rookie Zach Mettenberger making his first pro start. Aside from Arian Foster, J.J. Watt and a declining Andre Johnson the Texans really don't have much. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and heavily turnover prone. He's committed eight turnovers in his last six games. The Eagles represent a step up for the Texans. The Eagles' offensive line is getting healthier and their ground game has picked up with LeSean McCoy rushing for 232 yards in his last two games. Nick Foles isn't nearly as good as his 2013 statistics, but he's better than he's shown lately. His game will pick up since the Eagles' offensive line is getting back to full strength. It has been 21 games since the Eagles last lost two in a row. Philadelphia's defense is improving, helped by the return of linebacker Mychal Kendricks. The Eagles also hold a special teams edge. They have seven defensive/special teams touchdowns while their opposition has yet to put up a defensive or special teams score. The Eagles won't lack for motivation either in this non-conference matchup with eight former Texans on their roster, including linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 23-44 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
All streaks must come to an end. I see the Packers ending New Orleans' 19-game home winning streak under Sean Payton and 13-game home winning streak on national TV in this prime time Sunday Night matchup. I have no doubts that Payton will have the Saints fired-up. But New Orleans isn't as good, nor playing nearly as well as Green Bay. The Packers have taken their game up a notch behind the flawless play of Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is averaging 36.3 and 352.5 yards per game during the last four weeks - all victories. The Saints defense has looked far more like their record-worst defense of two years ago than last year. Their secondary is weak especially without injured Jarius Byrd and prey to Rodgers, who has thrown 17 touchdown passes with no interceptions his last six games. The Saints rank 28th in points allowed and pass defense. Rodgers has a multitude of weapons with the emergence of rookie Davon Adams joining Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb plus a solid ground attack to keep things balanced. New Orleans is 2-4 and its record isn't a fluke. The Saints' only two victories were lackluster home wins at home against the Vikings, where rookie Teddy Bridgewater was making his first start, and versus the Buccaneers in overtime. Those two teams are a combined 3-10. Green Bay's defense isn't as good as it's offense and cornerback Sam Shields is out. But the Packers may have the most depth of any secondary in the NFL. Drew Brees is having a down year by his lofty standards. The Saints have a cluster injury problem at running back, their wide receivers aren't as good as Green Bay's and star tight end Jimmy Graham has been reduced to decoy status because of a shoulder injury. Brees also is without injured center Jonathan Goodwin. |
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10-26-14 | Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Carolina Panthers | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
There is nothing wrong with Seattle's offense. In fact, it's better than it was last year as Russell Wilson is improved and his offensive line is healthy. The Panthers have fallen apart on defense due to the suspension of Greg Hardy and a horrendous secondary that was put together on the cheap. Carolina has given up 38, 30, 24, 37 and 38 points in its last five games. I see Seattle's defense and special teams playing better after an embarrassing loss to the Rams last week. The Panthers have a cluster injury problem at running back and are missing both of their starting guards. The Seahawks get a lot of publicity for their great home record, but they have also covered nine of their last 13 on the road/neutral site games. |
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10-26-14 | Houston Texans -2.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 78 h 22 m | Show |
The Titans have formally given up on their season with word coming out that Ken Whisenhunt is going to start rookie sixth-round pick Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. Mettenberger isn't ready and he lacks the mobility to cover up his mistakes. His life is going to be made miserable by J.J. Watt and possibly Jadeveon Clowney, who is tentatively due back this week. The Titans rank 29th in points scored and 27th in total yards. Mettenberger doesn't have a lot of weapons to help him. The Titans have lost a number of key defensive players. They are giving up 24.6 points per game and that number could rise. This is a matchup that Ryan Fitzpatrick can manage relying on stud running back Arian Foster, who already has five 100-yard rushing games. Tennessee is 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 home games. |
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10-26-14 | Detroit Lions -3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 22-21 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 41 m | Show | |
Away from Georgia Dome, the Falcons have dropped 11 of their last 12, going 3-9 ATS. Atlanta has lost its last seven away games by double-digits. Don't look for the Falcons to correct their problems with this game in London. Matt Ryan has no time to throw. His offensive line is decimated. The Falcons will be going through their fifth different starting offensive line with this matchup after losing their starting center, Peter Konz, for the season. Ryan doesn't have a reliable ground game to fall back on either. Steven Jackson is Atlanta's lead runner and he's well past his prime. The Lions' defense has become dominant particularly their front four. Detroit has held five of its seven opponents to 17 points or less while ranking first or second in total defense, run defense and scoring defense. The Falcons' defense is far weaker ranking 30th in yards given up and points allowed. The statistics don't lie. The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Their earlier home victories against New Orleans and Tampa Bay don't look so good now given the struggles those two teams are having. Even if Calvin Johnson doesn't play, the Lions have enough weapons with Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush and Golden Tate to take advantage of such a weak opposing defense. The Lions also have solved their kicking problems with the signing of Matt Prater. |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The Steelers haven't lost a home game on Monday night since 1991 and I expect them to win this game by more than a field goal. Pittsburgh holds a huge edge at quarterback and its defense, which has been disappointing, will be super fired-up after being called soft by former players and coaches. The Steelers' defense is far from dominant like it has been, but it still ranked in the upper half entering this week in total defense, rushing and passing. Pittsburgh also is going against one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is a journeyman, game-manager who is turnover prone. He has a 3-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. He has turned the ball over 10 times this season. The Texans entered Week 7 ranked 28th in passing. The Texans have struggled when facing elite quarterbacks. In their last two games, they've allowed 694 yards through the air in losing to Tony Romo and the Cowboys and Andrew Luck and the Colts. Houston's previous two victories came against the Bills quarterbacked by E.J. Manuel and the Raiders quarterbacked by Derek Carr. I don't see the Texans stopping Ben Roethlisberger. Houston is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 AFC matchups. PROP RECOMMENDATIONS I'm looking to fade Ryan Fitzpatrick on various props. One prop at the Westgate has Fitzpatrick's passing yards at over/under 222.5. I like under. The Texans are a run-first team even when they are behind. Their coaching staff knows Fitzpatrick is a game-manager not a gunslinger. Fitzpatrick has gone under 222.5 yards in four of Houston's six games. He has averaged 183 yards in his last two games. It wouldn't be a shock either if Fitzpatrick didn't finish the game. There has been talk about making a quarterback switch in Houston. |
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10-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Denver Broncos -6.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 61 h 39 m | Show |
San Francisco has too many injuries on defense to keep it close against Peyton Manning. Since Manning joined Denver, the Broncos have won 17 of 19 regular season home games. Manning has thrown 59 touchdown passes in the 19 games. This also is a tough situational spot for the 49ers, traveling on a short week after having played on the road this past Monday against the Rams. Denver has upgraded its defense ranking fourth in fewest yards allowed and fifth in run defense. The 49ers need to run to be successful and they are averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the road compared to 4.7 at home. |
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10-19-14 | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 24 m | Show |
An all-out focused effort should be forthcoming from the Seahawks after suffering a rare home loss this past Sunday. The Rams are the youngest team in the NFL down to their third-string quarterback, Austin Davis, and with a disappointing ground attack. The Seahawks rank sixth in run defense. Davis has a big arm, but lacks accuracy and has a below average receiving core. The Rams have only one sack, rank 26th in run defense and are giving up 30 points a game. They are on a short week after melting down at home this past Monday night in a loss to the 49ers. The Seahawks get a lot of attention for being near invincible at home, but they are 11-3-1 ATS during their past 14 road games. Russell Wilson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league. He'll be able to avoid the Rams' frequent blitzes while Marshawn Lynch takes advantage of the Rams' below average run defense. |
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10-13-14 | San Francisco 49ers -3 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Colin Kaepernick is at his best when his ground game is going smoothly. That will be the case in this matchup. The 49ers rank No. 3 in rushing thanks to a hot Frank Gore, who has rushed for 299 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry during his last four games. Gore has had some of his best performances against the Rams, having scored 14 touchdowns against them while running for more than 1,100 yards. St. Louis permits nearly 30 points a game and is second-to-last in stopping the run. The Rams have allowed 100-yard rushers in three of their last four games. Don't be fooled by the Rams ranking No. 1 in pass defense. Their secondary actually isn't very good at all. They've faced the fewest pass attempts per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed close to 71 percent of their throws against the Rams. The Rams are last in the league in sacks, too, with just one. San Francisco owns the superior offense and defense. The 49ers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road and neutral site games, not including playing in Seattle. |
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10-12-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Seattle Seahawks -8 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
I see the Cowboys getting exposed here. Dallas has reeled off four straight victories - beating three weak teams (Titans, Rams and Texans in overtime at home) and underachieving Saints. |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 77 h 31 m | Show |
There is no Super Bowl hangover for the Seahawks. They are just as good this season if not better than 2013. Washington's statistics were highly inflated during Weeks 2 and 3 because the Redskins built them against the Jaguars and Eagles defenses. This, along with playing the Texans and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1, inflated the Redskins' defensive stats, too. Truth be told, the Redskins' defense isn't much better than last year and no longer has cornerback DeAngelo Hall. The Redskins' secondary is highly vulnerable and their linebackers can't cover Percy Harvin. If you discount their performance against overmatched Chad Henne, the Redskins have managed just one sack. In their last two games, the Redskins have allowed Nick Foles and Eli Manning, who had been in a slump, to complete a combined 55 of 80 passes for 625 yards and seven touchdowns with just one interception. Kirk Cousins is a very limited, systems quarterback. He was exposed by the Giants in Washington's last game, a brutal 45-14 home loss. Cousins was picked off four times, three of which came when he wasn't even being pressured. Cousins now faces the premier defense and secondary in the league that is rested following a bye. Last year, the Seahawks played stronger run defense on the road than at home giving up 3.7 yards away from CenturyLink Field compared to 4.2 yards a carry at home. This year, the Seahawks are holding opponents to 2.8 yards on the ground while on the road and 2.7 when at home. Bad news for Alfred Morris. Cousins isn't nearly the playmaker needed against this elite defense if he doesn't have ground support, or respect off play-action. The Seahawks also are riding an eight-game winning streak on Monday night. |
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10-05-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Francisco 49ers -5 | Top | 17-22 | Push | 0 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
The 49ers have yet to play their "A" game, while the Chiefs looked fantastic in demolishing the Patriots at home this past Monday. All of this has made this a cheap number to lay with San Francisco. The Chiefs are traveling to the West Coast on a short week off a big emotional victory. It's a bad setting for them. Even with their victory over the Patriots, the Chiefs are still just 4-8 in their last 12 games. The 49ers' defense is down a notch due to injuries and suspensions. They can be passed on - but not by Alex Smith and his pedestrian receivers. The 49ers are well acquainted with their former teammate knowing his full limitations, which are many. Smith also will be without his second-best wide receiver, Donnie Avery. The Chiefs need to run the ball, but the 49ers have gotten very stingy against the run holding their last three opponents to an average of 2.4 yards per rush. On the flip side, the 49ers should have success against a Chiefs run defense that has allowed opposing backs to average 5.3 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are missing their best linebacker, Derrick Johnson, and best defensive back with safety Eric Berry declared out due to a high ankle sprain. The 49ers have gone back to their bread-and-butter, which is Frank Gore. His running sets up Colin Kaepernick and his upgraded receiving corps. That's the way it should be not the other way around, which Jim Harbaugh has figured out. During the first three weeks, the Chiefs gave up six touchdown passes without an interception. Their secondary is highly vulnerable. |
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10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 97 h 17 m | Show | |
The Broncos haven't played that well yet still have managed to beat the Colts and Chiefs each by seven points at home. Denver has covered 13 of its last 18 regular-season home games when favored since 2012. Peyton Manning should be able to exploit the soft underbelly of the Cardinals, who are down key linebackers from last year and have no pass rush minus Darnell Dockett and John Abraham. Arizona only has three sacks on the season. Backup Drew Stanton is a downgrade from Carson Palmer more game manager than downfield attacker. He is not going to be able to keep up with Manning. The Broncos have upgraded both their run defense and pass defense from a year ago. |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -9 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
The timing is bad here for the Vikings. Green Bay's offense is back in sync with Aaron Rodgers producing one of his best games last week. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is an excellent defensive coach, but it's going to take him time to build back a porous defense that is likely to be missing linebacker Chad Greenway again. Rodgers has regularly taken advantage of the Vikings' vulnerable secondary with a 26-to-4 touchdown-to-interception career ratio. The Vikings are off a great home victory against Atlanta, but now travel on a short week. The Giants beat the home Redskins last Thursday, but in the first three Thursday games of the season the home team has won and covered each time winning by a combined margin of 118-36. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater sparked the Vikings in their win against the Falcons, who suffered multiple offensive line injuries and can't play in outdoor road settings. Bridgewater, though, suffered an ankle injury. There's a drop from Bridgewater to third-stringer Christian Ponder, who would be Minnesota's third starting quarterback in three weeks if Bridgewater is a no good. Even if Bridgewater plays, he won't be at 100 percent and the Packers now have film on him. He won't sneak up on them like he did the Falcons. Bridgewater is missing key weapons Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph. That is going to catch up to the Vikings soon. Green Bay's run defense has been soft, but the Vikings minus Peterson have only pedestrian backs. The Packers are off a huge road win against the Bears. This is their lone home game during a four-week span. They will be taking this matchup very serious. Minnesota hasn't won at Lambeau Field since 2009. I also like these player props (taken from Bovada) on Packers wide receiver Davonte Adams. I like Adams to go over 2 1/2 receptions and over 25 1/2 receiving yards. Jarrett Boykin is out. Adams is the Packers' new clear No. 3 wide receiver. He played 70 percent of the offensive snaps last week when Boykin didn't play and caught a 34-yard touchdown pass that didn't count because of a penalty. Aaron Rodgers is getting more comfortable throwing to Adams. The Vikings will be paying a lot of attention to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb giving Adams plenty of receiving opportunities. |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots -2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Before prematurely writing off the Patriots for their slow offensive start consider how bad and banged-up the Chiefs are in key areas. Kansas City has lost eight of its past 11 games. The Chiefs have lost the statistics battle in eight of these 11 games, too. They are minus a number of key defensive players, including safety Eric Berry and their best linebacker, Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have failed to cover in seven of the last 10 games they've played versus foes with a winning record. Kansas City's offensive line is down starters, too, because of injuries and suspensions. Jamaal Charles isn't 100 percent and Alex Smith entered this Week 4 with the worst sack-to-pass-play ratio among starting quarterbacks. He's been sacked 11 times already. New England's defense is playing well coming into this week limiting foes to 272.7 yards and intercepting six passes. The Patriots' offense will come around as Rob Gronkowski gets more involved. So far he's played less than 50 percent of the offensive's snaps. Tom Brady shouldn't have any trouble carving up such a weakened defense. The Patriots also are 7-0 ATS in Week 4. |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 33 m | Show |
In a few weeks this line is going to have looked real cheap. The Saints are 1-2. They could be 3-0 having lost in overtime on the road to Atlanta and in the final three seconds to Cleveland on the road. New Orleans hasn't come close to reaching its peak yet both offensively and defensively. That could come here against Dallas, whose franchise-worst defense of 2013 isn't any better this year if not worse. DeMarco Murray is the lone running back to rush for 100 yards in every game this season, but Tony Romo is past his prime and still not 100 percent following off-season back surgery. He has weapons, but Drew Brees has more weapons, including all-world tight end Jimmy Graham. Brees still remains in his peak. The Saints have beaten the Cowboys in each of their last three meetings, including destroying them, 49-17, last year in the Superdome. The Saints are at their worst in a cold weather setting, which this is not. Dallas is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 home games and 8-18 ATS following a victory. Sean Payton is a far superior coach to Jason Garrett. The Cowboys' road victory against the Titans doesn't look so hot now that Tennessee has looked terrible in its last two games and Dallas' narrow victory this past Sunday against the Rams isn't impressive either considering St. Louis was playing third-string quarterback Austin Davis. Bottom line here is the Saints are two levels higher than the Cowboys. So this is a cheap price to lay and the best time to lay it is now before the line rises as expected. |
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09-28-14 | Miami Dolphins -3.5 v. Oakland Raiders | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 100 h 48 m | Show | |
Oakland can't play in the States and the Raiders won't be any better in London. As bad as Miami has looked the past two weeks the Dolphins are still a much better team than the Raiders. Oakland ranks with Jacksonville as one of the two worst teams in the NFL. The Dolphins have a playoff caliber defense and their offensive line should be at their best with center Mike Pouncey expected back. The Raiders rank last in yards and points on offense. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr has below average wide receivers and no ground support. Carr is going to face pressure from Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, two of the best pass rushers in the AFC. As bad as Oakland is on offense its numbers could be even worse as nearly half of their points and yardage have come during garbage time when the outcome had been decided. |
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09-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints -10 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
The Saints have been invincible at home going 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS the past 17 times at the Superdome when Sean Payton is the coach. The Saints are in an ugly frame of mind, too, after blowing late leads to the Falcons and Browns on the road to start 0-2. The Vikings gave up the most points last year. Drew Brees can take advantage with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and other weapons he has. New Orleans averaged 34 points at home last year. The Saints' defense is better than it has looked this year and will get to tee off on journeyman Matt Cassel. Minus Adrian Peterson, Cassel doesn't have the ground game to keep the Saints' pass rush honest. He's not nearly a good enough quarterback to keep pace with Brees. |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -113 | 58 h 27 m | Show |
Both of these teams are favored to win their respective divisions. Both have flaws, though. Right now the Colts are in better shape, have the better quarterback and are at home, which means a lot. During the two-year Andrew Luck era, Indy is 14-3 at home, 12-4-1 ATS. They beat both the Broncos and Seahawks last year by six points each. Philly certainly isn't in that class. Nick Foles already showed signs last week against lowly Jacksonville that he's not going to maintain his incredible 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception season of a year. He committed two turnovers against the Jaguars and was sacked five times. The Colts' pass rush leaves much to be desired minus Robert Mathis, but the Eagles' offensive line is in disarray with four of their top seven linemen out, including star guard Evan Mathis. They are on their third right tackle. Trend-wise the Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in September and have failed to cover the last five times when playing in their second game of the year. The Colts have also covered in eight of their last 10 Monday night games. I |
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09-14-14 | Houston Texans -3 v. Oakland Raiders | 30-14 | Win | 105 | 130 h 15 m | Show | |
The Raiders were even worse than advertised against the Jets, which is saying a lot. The final score was Jets 19, Raiders 14. But the statistics show New York's domination. The Jets outgained the Raiders, 402-158, outrushing them, 212-25. Oakland's below-average wide receivers couldn't even get separation on the Jets' cornerbacks, who could be the worst in the NFL. Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, both of whom averaged only 3.3 yards per carry last year, both looked terrible. The Raiders have to simplify their playbook for rookie quarterback Derek Carr and don't have the supporting cast for him to succeed. Houston is a prime bounce back team with $100 million man J.J. Watt, perhaps the only player in the league capable of blowing up an offense by himself, along with a healthy-again Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, who are among the best at their respective positions. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an intelligent, veteran game-manager, which is what the Texans need in this spot. It's an added plus for the Texans if the Raiders are without middle linebacker Nick Roach for a second straight week. Houston first-year coach Bill O'Brien is a lot sharper than Oakland coach Dennis Allen. |
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09-14-14 | NY Jets v. Green Bay Packers -8 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -106 | 130 h 26 m | Show |
It's one thing for the Jets to beat Oakland and rookie quarterback Derek Carr at home with the worst cornerbacks in the league. Hanging on the road with Aaron Rodgers is quite another story. I see the Packers blowing out the Raiders. Green Bay has had extra prep time and is in a foul mood following their embarrassing national TV loss to the Seahawks this past Thursday. Green Bay is a much better team than it looked against the Seahawks. The Packers' offense was crisp during preseason with Rodgers running the no-huddle to near perfection. The Jets made a big mistake not spending money on the cornerback position. Now they are extremely thin and vulnerable there. Rodgers, with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, can easily exploit New York's secondary. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS the past nine times when laying seven or more points. Geno Smith plays much worse on the road. Last year, he had a 5-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road. This is the Jets' only road matchup during their first four games so a loss would not be catastrophic for them especially after beating the Raiders last week. |
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09-14-14 | New Orleans Saints -6 v. Cleveland Browns | 24-26 | Loss | -125 | 117 h 53 m | Show | |
I don't see the Browns offense, devoid of skill position talent and with injuries to key players, being able to keep up with Drew Brees. The Browns caught the Steelers coasting and by surprise with a no-huddle offense last Sunday in scoring 24 second-half points. The Saints' defense is much better than it showed against the Falcons. They just ran into a very good - and healthy - Falcons offense in the Georgia Dome. The Saints have film now on the Browns' no-huddle and won't be fooled. The Saints do not have a good track record in outdoor road games, but they did beat the Bears at Soldier Field last season and the Eagles in cold weather during a road playoff game. |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots -6 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 149 h 15 m | Show |
Look for the Patriots to play much better than they did in Week 1. It has been 33 games since New England lost two regular season games in a row. Consequently, it has been 18 games since Minnesota won consecutive games. The Vikings look improved under Mike Zimmer, but they have a long ways to go after giving up the most touchdown passes and second-most passing yards last season. They are not going against backup quarterbacks this week, but Tom Brady. Brady and the Patriots are eager to redeem themselves after losing in humiliation fashion to the more physical Dolphins. New England's defense is much improved with the return to health of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo plus the addition of Darrelle Revis. Bill Belichick is quite familiar with journeyman quarterback Matt Cassel, who he formerly coached. Note, too, that the Vikings no longer have their indoor dome edge against outdoor teams. The Vikings are playing their games at TCF Bank Stadium. This is their first game there, which will be a distraction and cut down on their home field edge. |
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09-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers -5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 168 h 34 m | Show | |
Dallas had its worst defense in franchise history last season giving up 50 touchdowns and the most yards in team history. The Cowboys defense looks even worse this year because of injuries, defections and a suspension to cornerback Orlando Scandrick. The Cowboys are going to have win via shootouts. The timing isn't great for Dallas' offense. Tony Romo was brought along slowly following off-season back surgery. Romo is rusty and his offensive line has some inexperience. Colin Kaepernick is on the verge of a break-out season with a deep set of receivers, including a healthy Michael Crabtree. San Francisco has covered in eight of its last 10 road games. Dallas has been one of the biggest money-burners at home going 6-13 ATS in their last 19 in Arlington. |
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09-07-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 11 m | Show | |
The Steelers have owned the Browns winning seven of the past eight times. They have held Cleveland to an average of 9.3 points during the past 12 meetings. The Browns look just as terrible on offense as ever. Brian Hoyer is more backup than starter and he could have the worst starting wide receiver tandem in the NFL in washed-up Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins. The Steelers' defense is always tough, especially at home, and it received an infusion of new blood spearheaded by good-looking rookie Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh's offense is more balanced this season. The Steelers' offensive line is more stable and Ben Roethlisberger has two good running backs - Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount - to help make his deadly play action passes work. The Steelers closed last season covering seven of their last eight games. The Browns are just 3-7 in their last 10 road games. They also are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Pittsburgh. No team has been more futile on opening day than the Browns, who are 1-14 SU and 2-12-1 ATS since coming back into the league in 1999. |
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09-07-14 | Tennessee Titans +4.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 164 h 13 m | Show |
The Chiefs aren't coming close to winning 11 games this season. They lost three offensive linemen in free agency and another, right tackle, Donald Stephenson, is suspended for the first four games. The key member of the line, left tackle Eric Fisher, is coming off shoulder surgery and hasn't looked good. Also suspended is Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City's best wide receiver. The Chiefs could have the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL without Bowe. The Chiefs' offense struggled during preseason as their first-string offense failed to produce a touchdown. The Chiefs are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Titans, on the other hand, look like one of the more improved teams in the NFL. They upgraded their coaching bringing in proven winner and offensive guru Ken Whisenhunt. Jake Locker is healthy and is ready for a breakout season fortified with three underrated wide receivers - Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright and Nate Washington. They can take advantage of a Kansas City defense that fell apart during the second half of last season. Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight road contests. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
Everybody seems to be just recalling the Seahawks smashing the Broncos in the Super Bowl and forgetting about the Packers, who with Aaron Rodgers and a healthy lineup are as good as any team on a neutral field. Seattle is the loudest outdoor venue in the league, but Green Bay negates some of that Seahawks' home field advantage with a no-huddle. The Packers are no longer a finesse team. Not with powerful Eddie Lacy. The Seahawks have the best secondary in the league. But their physical secondary is going to be affected more than any other team with the increased emphasis from officials on flagging defensive holding and making tighter pass interference calls. The Packers are deep at wide receiver. The Seahawks are actually weak at nickel back with Jeremy Lane, who isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury and will have problems handling Randall Cobb, who the Packers constantly move around. Seattle lost three of their top seven defensive linemen reducing their depth. Green Bay's offensive line is underrated especially with Bryan Bulaga healthy. I would take Green Bay's offensive line over Seattle's. The Packers have a deep secondary, too, and their defensive line is much improved. The Packers haven't forgotten either how they were robbed during their last visit to Seattle two years ago when replacement referees stole the game from Green Bay. |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -3 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 146 h 44 m | Show | |
Seattle is the better team with the better statistics and has a monster home edge.
Only once in their last 17 games have the Seahawks lost at CenturyLink Field. They are 12-5 ATS during this span. Both teams have outstanding defensive front sevens. The difference is in the defensive backfield where the 49ers are vulnerable and Seattle has the best secondary in football with interception leader Richard Sherman and the best safety tandem of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks are plus 22 in turnover ratio. I see them winning the turnover battle backed by their huge vocal crowd support and facing Colin Kaepernick, who while talented is a work in progress. The 49ers' wide receivers are big and physical. But they don't get much separation. They are not a good matchup against the Seahawks' highly-physical secondary. |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos -4.5 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 13 m | Show |
New England doesn't have the offense to hang with Peyton Manning and Denver's record setting offense.
The Patriots also are too battered on defense missing their best lineman, Vince Wilfork and top linebacker Jerod Mayo. Also out is lineman Tommy Kelly and linebacker Brandon Spikes. New England has been relying on LeGarrette Blount and a bruising ground game to offset its passing weaknesses. Blount is going against a top-10 rush defense not the soft Bills and Colts. New England wide receivers combined for just 16 touchdown receptions. Demaryius Thomas alone had 14 touchdown catches for Denver. Manning keeps raising his Hall of Fame game while Tom Brady is in decline finishing 17th in quarterback ratings. The Patriots have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 playoff games. New England played an easy schedule yet still allowed at least 24 points to a number of bad offenses, including the Jets, Browns, Texans and Dolphins. Manning will have no trouble lighting up the Patriots especially with mild temperatures and little wind expected. Manning has far more dangerous weapons than Brady, including former New England wideout Wes Welker. |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 145 h 26 m | Show |
The 49ers are playing their best ball having won six in a row. They have covered their last seven road games and won't be intimidated at all playing in cold weather at Lambeau Field.
The 49ers were unstoppable when they beat the Packers at home by two touchdowns in last season's playoffs piling up 579 yards. The Packers couldn't stop Colin Kaepernick on the ground or through the air. The Packers vowed to get more physical after that game. Green Bay cut some of the gap, but still lost by a touchdown opening week at home to the 49ers. The Packers keyed on Kaepernick's running ability so he burned them through the air throwing for more than 400 yards. Green Bay has been merely surviving flying through the seat of its pants. Rodgers being back gives the Packers a puncher's chance, but the 49ers are far more healthier than Green Bay and have a far superior defense. Rodgers couldn't beat the 49ers at home when he was 100 percent and had tight end Jermichael Finley and the defense had star pass rusher Clay Matthews. Injuries have just about decimated Green Bay. Randall Cobb is back, but he's not 100 percent. Eddie Lacy is dealing with a sore ankle. Too many of Green Bay's inexperienced reserves are thrust into key roles. That's not going to cut it versus San Francisco. |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bengals, particularly Andy Dalton, have much to prove after losing in the first round of the playoffs each of the last two seasons.
Everything lines up for the Bengals to prove themselves in a big way in this matchup. The Bengals are home against a mediocre West Coast team coming into 30-degree weather with a mix of snow and rain forecast and playing at an early start time. The Chargers are well-coached, but their talent level - especially on defense - doesn't come close to matching the Bengals. Cincinnati has been dominant at home winning and covering all eight of its games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals have beaten good teams at home, too, defeating the Steelers, Packers, Patriots, Jets, Colts and Ravens. The Bengals have won their home games by an average of 17.6 points, the last five home games were won by an average of 24 points. Cincinnati finished with the top defense in the AFC allowing 305.5 yards per game. San Diego ranks 23rd in yards given up. The Chargers are especially vulnerable through the air ranking 29th. Dalton has been brilliant - at home. He's thrown 17 touchdown passes in his last five home contests. A.J. Green and Marvin Jones combined for 21 touchdown receptions. They should dominate a weak San Diego secondary. The Bengals defeated the Chargers, 17-10, at San Diego this season despite Dalton not playing well. They won it by rushing for 166 yards and getting another strong defensive effort. The Bengals could have won by double-digits but took a knee at the three-yard line at the end following a long drive. |
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 16 m | Show | |
Yes, the Saints' road troubles are well documented. But the Eagles didn't post a winning home mark and have covered only 23 percent of their last 27 home games.
The Saints have the superior and more experienced big-game quarterback, Drew Brees, than the Eagles plus a stronger defense. Those are two key components, especially when taking points. New Orleans has playoff experience and an elite coach, Sean Payton. Chip Kelly did a fine job with the Eagles, but has never coached a pro playoff game. My trust lies far more with Brees and Payton than with Kelly and Nick Foles. Foles has to go against a Saints defense that ranked fourth in fewest yards allowed. Brees, who knows cold weather from having played at Purdue and has a 65 percent completion rate in cold weather games, gets to operate against the Eagles' 29th-ranked defense and last ranked pass defense. Brees has a deeper wide receiving group than Foles does, too, plus the best tight end in football, Jimmy Graham. |
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12-29-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks -10 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 129 h 23 m | Show |
The Rams very well could get shut out in this game. It's not a fluke Seattle is ranked No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in fewest points allowed. Seattle has the quickest and most athletic defense in football. The Seahawks also have the hardest hitting secondary.
I don't see any way the Rams are going to stay competitive with the Seahawks, who are going to be fully focused after having their 14-game home win streak end this past Sunday against the Cardinals and with the NFC West Division and a first-round bye at stake. Seattle is 7-2 ATS in December and 7-2 ATS following an ATS loss. The Seahawks aren't going to forget either than St. Louis nearly upset them in Week 8. The Rams are heavily run-oriented, forced to be that way with starting quarterback Sam Bradford out and extremely limited backup Kellen Clemens behind center. Making things worse for St. Louis is its best offensive lineman, left tackle Jake Long, is out. The Rams also could be missing their lone big-play threat, Tavon Austin. The Rams have a fierce pass rush, but their secondary can be exploited. Russell Wilson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. St. Louis doesn't have the run defense, nor the ballhawks in the secondary that Arizona does. The Rams have failed to cover in five of their last seven road games. Seattle is the toughest place to play in the NFL. The Seahawks have covered 68 percent of their past 54 home games. |
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12-29-13 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 17-34 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
There are no secrets between these two long standing division rivals. The defending Super Bowl champion Ravens desperately need this game to greatly enhance their playoff chances.
The Ravens are coming off a 41-7 home loss to New England. So it's really gut check time for the Ravens, who are 4-0 under John Harbaugh following a loss of 20 or more points. The Ravens are down from last season. No doubt about that. But they remain well-coached with prideful veterans and a defense that has permitted just four more touchdown throws than interceptions since Week 2. Despite the presence of the magnificent A.J. Green, the Bengals still are a short passing team afraid to fully trust Andy Dalton despite his strong home statistics. I know the Ravens will produce an effort. I'm not so sure about the Bengals, who already have won the AFC North Division. They have always lacked a killer instinct. |
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | 11-54 | Win | 100 | 43 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a terrible matchup for the Bears, who have one of the worst run defenses of all time giving up 152 yards per game on the ground.
The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing at 152 yards per game. LeSean McCoy is the leading rusher in the NFL with 1,343 yards. Prior to laying an egg against the Vikings last week, the Eagles had held their past nine opponents to 21 points or less. Chicago has surrendered an average of 31 points during its last four games. I trust Nick Foles more than Jay Cutler not to commit turnovers. Foles has a fantastic 23-to-2 touchdown-to-interception. Chicago has failed to cover in nine of its last 11 games versus NFC opponents. |
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12-22-13 | Denver Broncos -10 v. Houston Texans | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show | |
Denver has had 10 days to stew about suffering its first home loss in 14 tries after falling to San Diego.
Peyton Manning is chomping at the bit to take his frustrations out on Houston, which plays far worse than its statistics indicate. The Texans are a rudderless, dispirited bunch who can't wait for the season to end. They have dropped 12 in a row. Their 3-11 ATS mark is the worst spread mark in the NFL. The Texans are down to their third-string tailback in a run-heavy offense and may be missing their two top tight ends, too. Back at quarterback by unpopular demand is washed-up Matt Schaub, who the few fans who come to the game will be pulling against. The Texans lack a passing game to not only keep up with Manning but to have any backdoor capability. |
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12-22-13 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 52 m | Show | |
The line is inflated because the Chiefs have been piling up points and Indy has been struggling usually playing to the level of the competition.
These teams, though, are very close. They very well could meet in the first-round of the playoffs. So a conservative, vanilla game plan from both teams might happen with neither wanting to tip their hand knowing they could be meeting again in just two weeks. This is a plus for the underdog. The Chiefs have built up an impressive 11-3 record by beating bad teams and backup quarterbacks. Their only win against an above .500 team was against Philadelphia in Week 3. Kansas City has been outgained by 336 yards on the season and is allowing an average of 29.5 points a game during the last four weeks. The Chiefs' pass rush is down with Justin Houston, who doesn't appear ready to rejoin the lineup this week. |
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
This is the Steelers' Super Bowl. Pittsburgh will be going all out against its hated division rival.
The Bengals are a much different team on the road, averaging 19.3 points per game. That's 14 points less than what they average at home. Cincinnati has a losing road record. The Bengals only have one away win by more than a field goal. Pittsburgh has won and covered five of the last seven in the series. A key to Pittsburgh's success is its defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, being able to successfully control Andy Dalton, who is completing just 52.3 percent in five career games against Pittsburgh with a 5.76 YPA and a 5-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ben Roethlisberger is having a big season for Pittsburgh and has been hot his last four games with a high QB rating and a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. |
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12-15-13 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 53 m | Show | |
The Dolphins opened as a fashionable underdog and have drawn all the early money knocking the line into the pick range.
But this doesn't mean the Dolphins are the right side here - because they are not. The Dolphins are a very mediocre team. They lack star power at the skill positions and their maligned offensive line with all its bad karma has surrendered a league-high 48 sacks. New England has proven it can win without star tight end Rob Gronkowski going 5-1 this season without him. Tom Brady still has plenty of weapons without Gronkowski. New England averages 26.8 points per game. Miami has exceeded 26 points in a game only twice. The Patriots have owned Miami, too, winning the past seven meetings. The Patriots face the Ravens in Baltimore next week. So they need to win this matchup. |
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12-15-13 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
I'll take a full touchdown with Washington. Who are the Falcons to lay these kinds of points?
Atlanta has been the biggest disappointment in the NFC this season. The Falcons rank 30th in run defense and start five rookies on defense. The Redskins made the right choice in benching RGIII. Kirk Cousins has starter potential and can provide a needed a spark. With Alfred Morris the Redskins' No. 2 ranked rushing attack can play ball control and move the ball on Atlanta's weak rush unit. The Redskins have several excellent pass rushers. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked 11 times during the past two games. |
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 112 h 44 m | Show |
I like Jim Harbaugh in same-season revenge, especially at home where the 49ers are 19-8-1 ATS in their past 28 home contests. San Francisco has beaten the Seahawks the past four times at home.
The Seahawks dealt the 49ers a 29-3 loss in Week 2. Now it's the 49ers turn to win. Seattle is far less intimidating on the road. Colin Kaepernick is playing better now that he has his full complement of wide receivers with Michael Crabtree back. The Seahawks' secondary is down Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond. |
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12-08-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 1 m | Show | |
Baltimore plays much better at home going 7-1 ATS in its last eight. This is a key game, too, for the Ravens since they are in the playoff hunt and their closing three games are against much tougher opponents - Lions, Patriots and Bengals.
The Vikings are off two tough division games. They tied the Packers on the road two weeks ago in overtime and then edged the Bears in overtime at home. The Ravens also are off a tough division game - but that was on Thanksgiving so they've had extra rest. The Vikings' motivation won't be as high as the Ravens. The weather forecast is for rain and temperatures in the 30s. The Ravens are 7-1 at home since 2008 when the game-time temperature is 33 or below. Minnesota is practically a one-man team with Adrian Peterson. The Ravens rank No. 6 in run defense. They've allowed an NFL-low two rushing touchdowns. Baltimore's pass rush is far more effective, too, with facing non-elite quarterbacks. The Vikings have yet to win on the road this season. Baltimore is 5-1 at home where Joe Flacco has historically has played much better. The defending world champion Ravens are much the better team with a vastly superior coach and they also draw a favorable situation. |
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Sean Payton would like nothing better than to prove his Saints can win a big outdoor road game. They stand an excellent chance tonight against Seattle.
New Orleans' defense is greatly improved and the Saints have a much stronger passing attack. Seattle is a super home team, but once again its home number is inflated. The Seahawks are 3-3 ATS in their last six games CenturyLink Field. The Saints are a take at plus 4 or more with a healthy Brees against any foe. Drew Brees is 9-0 the past nine times on Monday night with a 123.6 passer rating. He has the weapons to successfully pass on a Seattle secondary missing injured Brandon Browner and suspended Walter Thurmond. The weather forecast is for temperatures in the high 30s with little wind. The Seahawks actually have a bigger game on deck when they take on the 49ers next week in a division showdown. |
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams +8.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | 13-23 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams are a perfect 5-0 ATS when taking eight or more points. It's not a fluke. Fisher is a tremendous 'dog coach and has made the Rams a tougher, more physical team.
St. Louis is playing its best ball right now despite losing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. In their last two games, the Rams have defeated the Colts by 30 on the road and the Bears by 21. They should have defeated the Seahawks four games ago, losing, 14-9. The Rams have achieved this by applying tremendous quarterback pressure, becoming a run-first team thereby taking the pressure off backup quarterback Kellen Clemens and watching Tavon Austin step up as a dangerous multi-threat. The 49ers are on a short week following a road victory this past Monday against the Redskins. Prior to facing a Washington defense that gives up the second-most points in the NFL, Colin Kaepernick had passed for 165 yards or less in three straight games. |
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
Both teams are way down this season, but the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens still remain tough at home where they have covered all five of their games.
Baltimore has allowed only two legitimate touchdowns at home this season while giving up an average of 10.8 points per game. The Steelers lack the necessary ground attack to keep the Ravens, particularly Terrell Suggs who has been a terror against Ben Roethlisbeger, from applying plenty of quarterback heat. The Steelers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games. Joe Flacco has a history of playing much better at home and he's coming off one of his best games of the season. Ray Rice should be more effective in this game, too, as the Steelers' No. 23 run defense will be minus injured 325-pound nose tackle Steve McLendon. As far as playing any props for this game, I would look to go over on sacks for Baltimore, under on receiving yards for Steelers tight end Heath Miller and over on rushing/receiving yards for Ray Rice. The Ravens rank first in sacks. The Steelers are passing a lot more than perceived and Terrell Suggs as always been a terror against Ben Roethlisberger. Miller isn't the same since coming back from serious knee ligament surgery. He had only two catches for 17 yards in the team's first meeting this season. The Ravens are extremely tough against tight ends. Rice should have one of his better games with the Steelers missing McLendon and he will see a lot of touches. |
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers -4.5 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 43 h 30 m | Show |
I'm surprised this line is under a touchdown. Yes, the 49ers have lost two in a row. Those two losses, though, were by a combined four points at New Orleans and against Carolina. Those two teams are a combined 16-5.
The Saints and Panthers also have tough defenses. The Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the NFL giving up more than 31 points a game. This is a breakout game for Colin Kaepernick. He'll have a healthy Vernon Davis and Frank Gore, who has totaled 100 yards rushing and/or scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games. While the Redskins have a bottom three defense, the 49ers entered Week 12 giving up the fourth-fewest points per game. Robert Griffin III is not close to being what he was last season and will be without his No. 2 and No. 3 leading receivers as tight end Jordan Reed and Leonard Hankerson are out. San Francisco has covered 74 percent of its last 32 games on grass and is 11-4 ATS following a loss. Washington is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games. Regarding props, I would also look to play the 49ers over 26 1/2 points and to play on some of their players to have strong individual games. The Redskins' defense has been dreadful from the start and it hasn't improved. The safeties are among the weakest in the NFL. The 49ers haven't put up strong offensive numbers in their previous two games because they've faced two strong defenses - Carolina and New Orleans. Now the 49ers step way down in defensive class. Prior to their last two matchups, the 49ers had scored 31 or more points in five consecutive games. |
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | 11-40 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 3 m | Show | |
The Colts own victories against the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. The Cardinals are not at that level where they could defeat those teams.
The Cardinals can't run the ball and have an inconsistent passing attack. Carson Palmer has more interceptions than touchdown passes. Last week was the first time this season he went a game without being picked off. The Colts hold a huge quarterback edge with Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is 21-9-2 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS when meeting an opponent above .500. |
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11-24-13 | Tennessee Titans v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 23-19 | Win | 100 | 76 h 5 m | Show |
This is the first of three consecutive road games for the Titans. After this matchup are games against the Colts and Broncos. The Titans will be big 'dogs in those games. This is the game they need to win - and they know it.
The Raiders are off an upset win against the Texans. After each of their previous three victories this season the Raiders followed it with a loss. Rookie Matt McGloin is the Raiders' 15th starting quarterback since 2005. He threw three touchdown passes against the Texans. I don't see him duplicating that success against the Titans, who have allowed just seven touchdown passes while intercepting eight passes. Opponents also have film now on McGloin, who is not considered a major talent. He's not helped playing in back of one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Tennessee also is using a backup quarterback with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is playing well, though, completing 44 of 61 passes during the past two games for 486 yards and three touchdowns. Chris Johnson gives Tennessee the best running back, too, in a matchup that should be decided in the trenches with a lot of running. The Titans hold the edge in the trenches also. |
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11-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins +4.5 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
Fresh off their huge and satisfying Monday night home win against New England, the Panthers now have to travel on a short week to play the Dolphins.
Miami is in the playoff hunt and has a respectable defense. A lot has been made of Bullygate, but since Jonathan Martin left the team the Dolphins have gone 2-1. The Panthers are in a letdown spot and could be missing star defensive Charles Johnson, who has 8 1/2 sacks. He has a sprained knee. Carolina already has lost to the Bills and Cardinals on the road. The Panthers are vulnerable in this spot against a desperate Dolphins team. |
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11-17-13 | NY Jets +1 v. Buffalo Bills | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 58 m | Show | |
The Jets come off their bye rested and brimming with confidence having been one of the few teams to keep New Orleans in check during a 26-20 victory.
The Jets have defeated Buffalo in seven of the past eight meetings, going 6-2 ATS. The Jets beat the Bills in Week 3 despite committing 20 penalties for 168 yards. New York held Buffalo quarterback E.J. Manuel to just 19-for-42 throwing. New York has the No. 1 ranked rushing defense. Manuel is still rusty from having missed four games with a knee injury. Manuel will be without his two leading wide receivers, Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods. Both have been ruled out with injuries. In addition, C.J. Spiller isn't close to 100 percent bothered by an ankle sprain. |
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11-17-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Houston Texans -7 | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 46 m | Show | |
The Texans have out-yarded their opponents by more than 1,000 while ranking No. 1 in total defense and pass defense.
This road contest is too daunting of a challenge for the Raiders minus their top running back, Darren McFadden, and most likely their starting quarterback, Terrelle Pryor. Rookie quarterback Matt McGloin is slated to make his first NFL start. McGloin has to go against their fierce defense behind one of the worst offensive lines and with below average skill position talent. Case Keenum isn't making the bad mistakes Matt Schaub was. The frustrated Texans would like nothing more than to steamroll the Raiders for their sick coach and to regain their confidence. |
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11-17-13 | Atlanta Falcons -1 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -117 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
It has been a terrible year for the Falcons, the worst by far of Mike Smith's six-year tenure. But the Buccaneers beating a disjointed Dolphins squad on Monday night doesn't erase the fact that Atlanta still is at least one level higher than Tampa Bay.
The Falcons have a lot of pride under Smith, having made the postseason under him four of the past five seasons. They are a much better organization than Tampa Bay with a far superior coach and quarterback. Playing on grass hasn't hurt the Falcons in Tampa Bay as they've won and covered during their past four visits. The Falcons have been racked by injuries this year, but are starting to get back some of their key people, including wide receiver Roddy White and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Before playing Miami with its inept offense, the Buccaneers had allowed 31, 31, 31 and 27 points in their previous four games. They do not generate much quarterback pressure, which is needed to rattle Ryan. Ryan shredded the Buccaneers for three touchdowns and 273 yards passing when Atlanta beat the Bucs, 31-21, in Week 7. The Buccaneers have been hit by injuries on their offensive line and now are without sparkplug running back Mike James, who had replaced injured Doug Martin. That leaves Tampa Bay with an immobile rookie quarterback and a running attack that is composed of castoffs. Even with their victory against Miami, the Buccaneers are still 5-19 ATS as a home underdog. They are 1-13 straight-up when foes weren't resting their starters. They don't figure to be so motivated with the national spotlight moving away from them and having achieved their first win. |
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11-10-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 10-23 | Win | 106 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Embarrassed and humiliated after giving up 55 points to New England last week, the Steelers will be fired-up for this matchup. Luckily, they draw a gutsy but bad Buffalo team.
The Bills need to win the turnover battle to win because their talent is so lacking. Buffalo gets back its starting quarterback, E.J. Manuel. But Manuel still is a rookie and figures to be rusty after being out the past four games following a knee injury. Since Dick LeBeau took over as defensive coordinator in 2004, the Steelers are 16-2 when going against a rookie quarterback. Just four games ago, the Steelers beat the Jets and their rookie quarterback, Geno Smith, 19-6. Rookies have a hard time facing LeBeau's various zone blitzes. Pittsburgh's defense is long in the tooth, but it's a prideful unit that had held up fairly well until being torched by Tom Brady. E.J. Manuel is no Tom Brady. The Steelers' much maligned offensive line gets a lift with the return of right guard David DeCastro. That should help the ground attack while setting up Ben Roethlisberger for play action facing a Buffalo secondary that has allowed 20 touchdown passes, which was the most given up entering this Week 10. Buffalo doesn't have a good track record either on the road. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, including 1-3 ATS this season. |
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The oddsmaker and marketplace have way overreacted to Aaron Rodgers not being available for this game.
Thrown in unexpectedly against the Bears this past Monday night, it was no surprise Seneca Wallace looked terrible. Wallace will be coached up this week and, for the first time, will get enough reps in practice to get the rust off. The Packers still have a very solid offense without Rodgers with Eddie Lacy, emerging as one of the better running backs in the league, along with a deep group of wide receivers and an offensive line that will be fired-up for this game. Keep in mind, too, how bad Philadelphia's defense is. The Eagles rank last in total defense and last in pass defense. The Eagles are going with their own backup quarterback, Nick Foles. Green Bay has greatly improved its run defense. The Packers have a deep defensive line group so they can stay fresh going against the Eagles' up-tempo offense. The Packers also could have back Clay Matthews, their best pass rusher. Even with that loss to Chicago, Green Bay still has won 18 of its last 20 games at Lambeau Field going 15-5 ATS. The Packers have the talent, drive and motivation to prove they can win without Rodgers. They certainly can accomplish that against a flawed Eagles team that has their own backup quarterback going. |
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11-07-13 | Washington Redskins -1 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -135 | 49 h 18 m | Show |
The Redskins have the better coach, quarterback and motivation to beat the Vikings by more than a field goal. These three edges are magnified even more on a short week.
Robert Griffin III is running more each week as he tries to regain his superstar status of a year ago. Griffin, even at 80 percent, is far superior to Christian Ponder and Minnesota's other worthless quarterbacks. Ponder is without his security blanket, too, with tight end Kyle Rudolph out with a broken foot. Griffin should put up big numbers against a decimated Vikings secondary than ranks 29th in pass defense. The Redskins are highly motivated after holding off San Diego last week in overtime thanks to a goal line stand at the end of regulation. The Redskins know they're still alive in the weak NFC East. The Vikings aren't so fortunate. They are hopelessly out of contention at 1-7 with road games looming the next two weeks against Seattle and Green Bay. Leslie Frazier is in over his head as coach of the Vikings. The Vikings face a fatigue factor, too, as this marks their third night game in 18 days. |
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11-04-13 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -10 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 28 m | Show |
The Packers have won 18 of their last 19 regular season home games. They are 15-4 ATS in these games. They've defeated Chicago six consecutive times.
Green Bay has a couple of important players out - Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb. But the Bears' injury situation is far worse. The Bears are without Jay Cutler and their defense is minus star defensive tackle Henry Melton along with linebackers Lance Briggs and D.J. Williams. Star cornerback Charles Tillman has a sore knee and 33-year-old Julius Peppers has one sack. The Bears still can be opportunistic on defense, but much of their talent and leadership is gone from that side of the ball with Brian Urlacher retired and Lovie Smith let go. Chicago's defense entered this week ranked 27th in yards and 29th in points allowed. Sparked by rookie running back Eddie Lacy, the balanced Green Bay offense has gained 449, 438, 357 and 464 yards in its last four games. The Packers entered the week averaging 30.3 points per game. It's safe to assume Green Bay is going to get its share of points against a Chicago defense that no longer is any good. The Bears' offense isn't going to be able to keep up with 34-year-old backup Josh McCown, who has a career passer rating of 72. |
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11-03-13 | Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Buffalo Bills | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 93 h 22 m | Show | |
I don't consider the Chiefs, the league's lone unbeaten team, to be a serious Super Bowl threat. But the Chiefs are far superior to the Bills.
This gap may grow even wider because of Buffalo's injuries. Thad Lewis has sore ribs. Star running back C.J. Spiller missed last week's game with a sore ankle. Neither may play Sunday. That would spell disaster for the Bills. So I'm getting on the Chiefs now in full anticipation of the line climbing. The Chiefs are giving up 12.3 points per game, fewest in the NFL. They lead the NFL in sacks with 36. The Bills are surrendering 14 more points per game than Kansas City. The Bills need to come up with turnovers to beat decent teams. They intercepted five passes to beat Baltimore at home by just three points. Alex Smith doesn't commit turnovers. The Chiefs rank first in the NFL in takeaways/giveaways at plus 12. |
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10-27-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 | 44-31 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
After laying an egg on Monday night and being a laughing stock all week, the Vikings are going to come out with their "A" effort against their biggest rival.
The Packers have multiple injuries, are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and failed to cover in three of their last four visits to Minnesota. The Vikings aren't nearly as bad as they looked against the Giants. Josh Freeman, mercifully, will not be behind center. The Vikings have the best running back in football, Adrian Peterson, to help out Christian Ponder, who also has a good receiving corps headed by former Packer Greg Jennings, who knows his former team well. Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous quarterback, but his options are limited minus Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finely. Because of these missing players, the Packers will be running more than usual. On defense, they miss their best defender, Clay Matthews. The Vikings have the superior special teams and will be highly motivated. This is going to be a close game. |
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions -3 | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 52 m | Show | |
The spot is right for the Lions to pound the Cowboys.
Dallas is off an impressive offense showing against Denver and division victories over the Giants and Eagles. The Cowboys are 5-15 ATS following a victory. The Cowboys have key injuries. Their best running back DeMarco Murray didn't play last week and their best defensive player, DeMarcus Ware, is likely out again with a quad injury. The Cowboys lack a pass rush without Ware and Anthony Spencer, their second-best pass rusher who is out for the season. The Lions have a top-flight defensive line that can shut down Dallas' ground attack, which is way below average minus Murray, and pressure Tony Romo, who can be turnover prone. Matthew Stafford has a 12-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio when Calvin Johnson has been in the lineup. Johnson had a dominant performance last week against the Bengals. Johnson being in the lineup makes Reggie Bush far more dangerous because defenses can't key on Bush. |
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10-27-13 | Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots -5.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
The Dolphins have lost three in a row. They have been outgained by 149 yards on the ground and 148 yards passing. It comes out to the opposition averaging close to 50 yards more than Miami per game.
Ryan Tannehill has been sacked more than any other quarterback. He has a sore throwing shoulder and doesn't catch a break as Patriots shutdown cornerback Aqib Talib is expected back this week. The middle of the Patriots' defense has gotten softer with season-ending injuries to nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo, but the Dolphins lack the dynamic ground game to take advantage. New England has won 33 of its last 36 regular season home games. The Patriots are 22-9-1 ATS in October. They have defeated Miami during the past six meetings. The Patriots offense is going to start picking up with Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup and Danny Amendola expected to play, too. Gronkowski makes the Patriots far more effective in the red zone. |
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10-20-13 | Cleveland Browns +10 v. Green Bay Packers | 13-31 | Loss | -106 | 101 h 10 m | Show | |
Green Bay is far less potent minus Randall Cobb. The Packers don't have anyone who can match his speed and big-play ability from the slot.
Cobb's absence causes the Packers to readjust their offense where an already emphasized ground attack will get even more work and tight end Jermichael Finley becomes more wide receiver than tight end. It changes the offense from a big-strike one to more of a grind-out-the-yards type. Defensively, the Packers have a cluster injury problem at linebacker. They are without their best pass rusher and defender Clay Matthews. The Browns are perceived as a lower rung team because they dealt what is looking like a vastly overrated Trent Richardson. In truth, though, the Browns are much more of a 7-9 to 8-8 team. Their 3-3 record reflects that. The Browns have a stout defense - ranked No. 1 in holding opponents to 4.4 yards per play - and a very good offensive line and stars at tight end with Jordan Cameron and wide receiver with Josh Gordon. All the Browns are missing is a decent quarterback. But because of that and wrong perceptions, the Browns are priced too low here. |