Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions +1 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Take away a miracle comeback against the Bears and the Packers would only have a win against Buffalo. The Packers were soundly whipped by a mediocre Redskins team two weeks ago when they last went on the road. Truth be told, Green Bay just isn't that good. The Packers should be taking points here not laying them, but their reputation precedes them. The Lions can take advantage of a work-in-progress Packers secondary that is starting rookie cornerback Josh Jackson and 35-year-old Tramon Williams with their trio of excellent wideouts. Kerryon Johnson has given the Lions a spark in the run game averaging more than six yards per carry during his last two games. So the Packers will have to respect the run something opponents have not had to do versus the Lions in past seasons. It's a tremendous step up for the Packers secondary and their weak-in-coverage linebackers going from Josh Allen at home to Matthew Stafford on the road inside a dome. Aaron Rodgers isn't likely to keep up. Not only is Rodgers far less than 100 percent, but Green Bay has a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Davonte Adams, Geromino Allison and Randall Cobb are all banged-up. Those are the Packers' three top wideouts. They are backed up by rookies. Cobb definitely is out. The Lions are up-and-down, but they showed what they could do at home when they upset the Patriots in their last game at Ford Field.
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | 14-30 | Loss | -117 | 49 h 4 m | Show | |
Many props to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on their 4-0 record. But is Kansas City going undefeated? Heck no. The Chiefs have major flaws on defense and now they are facing the best defense in the NFL after opening against three sub-par defenses in the Chargers, Steelers and 49ers. Oh, yeah, the Chiefs also are in a terrible situational spot having just won a huge Monday night national TV game against division rival Denver in which they needed a stirring comeback to pull it off coming from 10 points down in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars give up the fewest points per game, yards and passing yards. They have the offense to put up points themselves when Blake Bortles plays well. I envision Bortles playing well against a porous Chiefs defense that is especially vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks such as Bortles. The Chiefs are weak, too, on pass defense and in defending against pass-catching running backs. Leonard Fournette is out for Jacksonville. But T.J. Yeldon is a capable of replacement and a much better receiving threat than Fournette. Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole are one the most underrated receiving tandems in the NFL. The Chiefs have surrendered 20 completions of at least 20 yards, which is the worst in the NFL. This is the right spot to fade the Chiefs in a letdown spot against a foe they do not match up well against.
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 49 m | Show |
The Patriots have their swagger back after rolling past previously unbeaten Miami, 38-7, this past Sunday. It was an easy victory for New England. The Colts, though, are mentally and physically gassed after playing a full overtime and losing in heartbreak fashion to the Texans, 37-34, on Sunday. Indy's defense has played better than expected, but it is below average and wearing down. The Colts defense faced 77 plays against the Eagles two weeks ago and 84 plays on Thursday. Now the Colts have to travel on a short week to New England. It's a huge disadvantage. The Patriots may not have Rob Gronkowski , but they get back Julian Edelman from suspension. Josh Gordon should be at full speed, too. Tom Brady has the weapons to pile up points against the weary Colts even if Gronk doesn't play. The Colts need a full effort to be competitive because they lack the overall talent and experience being one of the youngest teams in the league. The Colts have a new coaching staff that still is trying to figure things out. An ill-advised fourth-and-four call from their own 44-yard line with 27 seconds left in overtime failed allowing the Texans to pull out the victory in what should have finished as a tie game. That could linger mentally with the Colts. Andrew Luck is working his way back from serious shoulder injury. Most of his passes are short. Luck has no ground attack, a porous offensive line that was without both starting tackles against the Texans and isn't expected to have his best wide receiver by far, T.Y. Hilton, nor his top tight end, Jack Doyle. The Patriots are 6-0 against the Colts since Peyton Manning left Indy. They are averaging 42.3 points against the Colts during this time span. Luck doesn't have the arm, weapons and protection time to keep pace with Brady.
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -3 | 26-14 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a tremendous rivalry with a history of close games. Only six times in the last 23 meetings has one team won by more than seven points. However, I'm not anticipating a close game here, clearly siding with Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won the past three get togethers with the Ravens with their average win margin being 7.3 points. Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five caliber quarterback when playing at home. He doesn't have Le'Veon Bell, but he does have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is becoming an elite receiver. The Ravens defense can't stay with these two wideouts minus still suspended Jimmy Smith. A.J. Green exploited smallish Ravens cornerback Tavon Young scoring two touchdowns off him in Week 2. Brown and Smith-Schuster can do the same. The Ravens have one of the least efficient run offenses. The Steelers entered this week tied with the Cowboys for the second-most sacks with 11. I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco especially without a ground attack and being on hostile ground against a proficient pass rush unit.
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 136 h 51 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are a surprising 3-0. The Patriots have lost two in a row both on the road against the Jaguars and Lions. When was the last time the Patriots lost three straight regular season games under Bill Belichick? Try like never. Actually it occurred - back in 2002! I want the Patriots and Tom Brady going for me after they laid an egg on national television against Detroit Sunday night in a miserable performance. So I'm locking in now believing the line will become higher toward kickoff. Miami certainly deserves credit for its fast start. Ryan Tannehill is a huge improvement on Jay Cutler. Tannehill, though, is not an elite quarterback and Miami's overall talent is well below average. The Dolphins have hosted the Titans, whose quarterback Marcus Mariota wasn't 100 percent during the game, beat the Jets on the road when New York was on a short week following a huge road upset win against the Lions on a Monday night and took care of business this past Sunday versus the winless Raiders. The Dolphins are a bogus 3-0 team in search of a loss. It will come here. The Patriots have yet to get their offense fully going. That should change against this opponent and with Josh Gordon having had two weeks with the team. Gordon will provide a much needed outside threat that will allow better spacing for Rob Gronkowski. New England should get several key injured players back on defense. The Patriots have owned Miami in Foxboro winning the past nine times there, while going 7-2 ATS. They have won and covered the past five times. The matchup, spot and history all clearly point New England.
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 63 h 43 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick has had his moments in the sun. This won't be one of them. Not only have the Bears become an upper echelon defense with the addition of Khalil Mack, but they use a 3-4 alignment. Tampa Bay had not faced that type of defense until this past Monday when they hosted the Steelers. Fitzpatrick was under pressure on nearly half of his pass attempts. His passer rating for that game was 81.3 compared to 156.3 and 144.4 in his previous two starts. Fitzpatrick is a journeyman who doesn't have a ground game to fall back on. The Buccaneers rank 30th in rushing. I don't see Tampa Bay's offense doing much against the Bears. The spot is very bad, too, for the Buccaneers traveling on a short week after an exhausting Monday night effort when they rallied from a 30-10 deficit to lose 30-27. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in-progress, but he has an outstanding runner, Jordan Howard, and several reliable receivers, including Allen Robinson and Trey Burton. Trubisky also is operating against one of the worst defenses in the NFL and one that has a cluster injury problem in the secondary. The Buccaneers rate last in pass defense, second-to-last in yards allowed and 29th in scoring defense yielding 30.3 points a game.
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09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -130 | 63 h 42 m | Show | |
The Lions are coming off a highly impressive nationally televised home win against the Patriots. I don't trust them to follow through on the road with another good performance. Dallas has one of the league's top defenses. One reason for this is coaching. I like the Dallas coaching staff to outwit talented but sometimes mistake-prone Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys have the pass rushers to bother Stafford. Dallas gives up fewer than 18 points per game and ranks third in fewest yards given up. The Cowboys defense is especially tough in the red zone, which is where the Lions can struggle. The problem for Dallas is offense. However, Ezekiel Elliott should be able to run on Detroit, which in turn will set up Dak Prescott. The Lions' linebackers are weak in coverage so Prescott should have success with his short passing style. This is an important game for the 1-2 Cowboys as two of their next three games are on the road with the home matchup during this span coming against the Jaguars. The Lions have a far bigger game on deck hosting the Packers next week.
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09-30-18 | Bills v. Packers -9 | 0-22 | Win | 100 | 63 h 41 m | Show | |
No, not two weeks in a row. Not even close. The Bills don't have nearly the talent, nor the quarterback, to pull off back-to-back monster upsets after stunning the Vikings, 27-6, last Sunday. Buffalo had a couple of things going its way when it ambushed the Vikings in the biggest upset in 23 years: a strong pass rush facing a subpar offensive line and the element of surprise. The Packers have one of the best offensive left tackles in football in David Bakhitari and right tackle Bryan Bulaga is expected to play after being bothered by a bad back. Bakhitari can handle Jerry Hughes, who was a big key for the Bills in beating the Vikings. And the Packers certainly won't be taking Buffalo lightly. Green Bay is coming off a road loss to the Redskins. The timing was bad for the Packers in that game coming off consecutive division games, the previous one being an epic overtime tie against the Vikings. The Packers are solid, have a better defense that they showed in the first half against the Redskins and Aaron Rodgers still is a top-five quarterback even at less than 100 pecent. Rodgers has healthy receivers and his best running back, Aaron Jones, is back from suspension. The Packers are in take-care-of-business mode after an embarrassing loss while the Bills and their rookie quarterback, Jared Allen, are still on Cloud 9. So the Packers aren't going to get caught sleeping like the Vikings did. If the Packers play their "A" or "B" game they will cover a double-digit spread especially if the Bills are less than sharp.
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Even on the road, I'll take Ben Roethlisberger over Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been playing well above his head. The Steelers are by far more experienced in marquee national televised games. They also are 9-1-1 in their last 11 regular season road games. The Buccaneers are beat-up in the secondary, vulnerable to Antonio Browns and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Another plus for the Steelers is the expected return of cornerback Joe Hadon, who should limit DeSean Jackson's home-run ability. Pittsburgh also has a far more dependable place-kicker.
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +6 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bears are a team on the rise. Right now, though, they are a work-in-progress with a below average quarterback and caught in a bad situational spot. It only is Week 3. But the 0-2 Cardinals are in desperate straits under rookie head coach Steve Wilks. They must win this home game, or already they can forget about any playoff possibility. Chicago is traveling a long distance on a short week after beating Seattle at home this past Monday night. Chicago is 3-8 ATS following a victory. The Bears' defense is promising, but it is not at their best yet. That won't happen until Khalil Mack and rookie Roquan Smith become 100 percent comfortable in the system. The Cardinals have their own star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. It was Jones, not Mack, who led the NFL in sacks last season with 17. No other player had even 15 sacks. Cornerback Patrick Peterson gives Arizona the best defensive back on the field, too. Wilks, the former defensive coordinator for Carolina, should be able to devise a sound plan going against second-year quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. The game has yet to slow down for Trubisky. He isn't any better than Sam Bradford. More mobile yes, but he lacks Bradford's veteran savvy and accuracy. Bradford will play better once the Cardinals figure out they need to get superstar running back David Johnson in space more. Wilks has had two games now to figure that out. Johnson has been under utilized. I see Johnson being the focal point of Arizona's offense and more dangerous than in the previous two games because the Cardinals will do more to get him on the outside, including putting him in the slot, or even flanking him wide. The Bears are going to take the Cardinals' best punch. I don't see them ready to cover more than a field goal on the road in a huge flat spot. |
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09-23-18 | Chargers +7.5 v. Rams | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 58 m | Show | |
It's understandable that the Rams sit on top of most people's NFL power ratings. They are strong on both sides of the ball. But I envision the Rams struggling to win this game for a number of reasons. Sean McVay held his key players out during preseason. The Rams were able to get away with that because their opponents during the first two weeks of the regular season were the Raiders and Cardinals. Both are winless. The Chargers represent a major upgrade. The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. They don't carry a strong home field advantage especially against this opponent, which also plays now in LA. The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 road contests. It is difficult for a team to blow out the Chargers because of Philip Rivers. During their last 18 games, the Chargers have lost by more than a field goal only four times. Rivers is an elite quarterback and is having another excellent season ranking in the top-four in touchdown passes, yards, completion percentage and passer rating. The Rams have a trio of good wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. But Keenan Allen is the best wide receiver on the field. He trumps them all. Rivers is especially effective when he has Allen. Much is being made of Joey Bosa being out. Sure his absence lessens the Chargers' pass rush. But the Chargers still have Melvin Ingram and their secondary, already good, is even better this season with the addition of star rookie safety Derwin James. The Rams are missing one of their key defensive cogs, too, with linebacker Mark Barron expected to sit out a third straight game due to an Achilles injury. The Rams' kicking game was a huge strength last season because of Greg Zuerlein. However, he's out. So the Rams are going with largely untested backup kicker, Sam Ficken. |
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -5.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 7 m | Show | |
Both teams are 0-2 and desperate. The Texans have the talent, huge defensive edge and home field to do more about it. DeShaun Watson is getting less rusty and better each week. Getting deep threat Will Fuller back is huge for him. As good as Odell Beckham Jr. is, I would take DeAndre Hopkins over him. The Texans are coming off one of their ugliest and most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing 20-17 on the road to the Titans last Sunday when Tennessee was missing its three top offensive tackles, leading receiver tight end Delanie Walker and going with backup Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. This should mean a huge maximum effort from Houston this week. The Texans' defensive line should control a disappointing Giants offense that is averaging a meager 14 points a game. Eli Manning is well past his prime. He's been terrible and so has the revamped Giants offense line. Nobody has played well on it, including left tackle Nate Solder. Manning was sacked six times in New York's Sunday night loss to the Cowboys. J.J. Watt should be able to dominate. Pat Shurmur has not made a difference. The Giants are as bad under him as they were during Ben McAdoo's two-year stay. Houston's offensive line is no great shakes either. But the Texans have the superior defense and Watson is extremely mobile. Those are enough important edges to ensure the Texans beat the Giants by at least a touchdown. |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes. But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game. The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed. Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury. The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team. Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago. But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team. Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive. Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight. Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3. Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers. The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good. Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money. |
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09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 151 h 59 m | Show |
The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet. The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. |
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09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -4.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 141 h 48 m | Show | |
The Falcons are on extra rest while Carolina is banged-up and making its lone road appearance for the first five weeks of the season. The Falcons' defense has greatly improved holding seven of their last nine opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Panthers are severely banged-up in the offensive with both of their tackles out. Cam Newton still is experiencing accuracy problems and likely won't have his star tight end, Greg Olsen. The Falcons have defeated the Panthers the past three times hosting them. Their winning margin has been by 11.3 points. After facing a weak Dallas passing attack in Week 1, the Panthers will be challenged far more by Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. The Falcons are helped much more than the Panthers by playing on a fast track and not a grass field.
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -116 | 124 h 55 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick had the game of his life in leading the Buccaneers to a stunning road victory against the Saints this past Sunday. Now the Bucs get to host the defending world champions. The spread is short because the Bucs are on a high, at home and the Eagles aren't likely to have Carson Wentz again. The Eagles are worth laying a small road price even with Nick Foles not looking like he did in the Super Bowl. That was a fluke performance. Foles is good enough, however, to help deliver a victory against this porous defense. Fitzpatrick is a career journeyman for many reasons, including his lack of consistency, his propensity for turnovers and not being talented enough to beat a strong defense such as the Eagles. The Eagles are on extra rest and preparation having played last Thursday. They are far better coached and their defense is upper tier while Tampa Bay's defense is bottom tier. The defending Super Bowl champions have the experience and savvy not to lose to this lowly foe. The Buccaneers lack a ground game to fall back on if Fitzpatrick struggles, which I anticipate here.
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -4.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 40 m | Show | |
Jimmy Garappolo sparked the 49ers to five straight victories to finish last season. But let's be clear here, Garappolo is not some elite quarterback and the 49ers are not a good team. That late season surge has made San Francisco an overrated commodity. Minnesota could have the best roster in the NFC. Certainly the Vikings have the top defense having allowed the fewest points and yards per game last year. The Vikings went 13-3 in 2017. That was having Dalvin Cook for just four games. Cook is back and Minnesota is upgraded at quarterback with Kirk Cousins. The 49ers have some serious defensive flaws. Signing cornerback Richard Sherman doesn't cover up all of their defensive backfield issues. MInnesota won seven of its eight regular season home games by more than a touchdown last season. That's not a surprise since the Vikings have had the best ATS home mark in the NFL since Mike Zimmer became their head coach in 2014. During Zimmer's four years, the Vikings have covered a staggering 67 percent of their regular season games.
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09-09-18 | Bengals +3.5 v. Colts | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 641 h 26 m | Show | |
The Bengals are better than the Colts yet taking more than a field goal. What gives here besides Indy's home field? It's the Andrew Luck factor of course. Sure Luck is a huge upgrade on Jacoby Brissett. But Luck is going to be rusty having not played a down last season. Luck makes the Colts better, but not good enough to seriously contend in what shapes up to be a very good AFC South Division. The Colts have lost and failed to cover in seven of their last eight season-openers. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Cincinnati is an average-type team. They are better defensively than the Colts and have a strong wide receiver matchup edge with A.J. Green. Joe Mixon also gives Cincinnati the best running back. I'm not a huge fan of Marvin Lewis, but I prefer his stablility against the youthful Colts, who are breaking in a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and special teams coach. The Colts could have as many as nine new defensive starters. They are making the switch to a 4-3 defense from a 3-4 and the early returns are not encouraging. Their defense looks like a bottom-four type unit. I like Cincinnati's pass rushers much better than the Colts. I'm also a fan of the Bengals' new defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin. He did a good job with the Lions. Lewis and Austin are respected defensive minds. Much this game is focused on Luck. But the Colts are inferior to the Bengals in the pits. Football Outsiders ranked Indy's offensive line as the worst pass blocking unit in the NFL last season. The Colts aren't going to drastically change that just because they drafted a guard in the first round. |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 54 m | Show |
Forget last season's 0-16 record. The Browns are going to be much improved this season. The oddsmaker has lined their over/under win total at 5 1/2 victories. That should be an indicator right there. The Browns have been itching for this home opener all off-season having had to endure and live with last season's winless year. Talent-wise, the Browns are close to a .500 team. They were done in by a staggering minus 28 turnover ratio, worst in the NFL in 17 years. All but 13 of their 41 turnovers were committed by overmatched rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. Veteran Tyrod Taylor replaces Kizer. Taylor has a winning record as a starting NFL quarterback. Tom Brady is the only starting quarterback who has a lower interception rate than Taylor during the past three years. Taylor has just 20 turnovers during the last three years with Buffalo spanning 43 starts, an average of fewer than seven turnovers per season. By contrast, Cleveland quarterbacks had a combined 34 turnovers in 2017. Cleveland has decent talent with Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Jarvis Landry, Kevin Zeitler, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jabrill Peppers, Denzel Ward, Carlos Hyde and David Njoku. Pittsburgh has a history of playing down to its level of competition especially on the road. The Steelers just nipped a much worse Browns team opening week last year at Cleveland winning, 21-18. The Steelers lost to the Bears in their next road contest. They edged the Colts, who were playing a backup quarterback, by only three points at Indianapolis and defeated the sub .500 Bengals by three points at Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger has a staggering home/road difference. He plays far better at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger has thrown 49 more touchdown passes at home and has 14 more interceptions on the road. Roethlisberger has a new offensive coordinator for the first time in six years with Todd Haley leaving. Guess where Haley went? Cleveland. Haley knows Roethlisberger and the Steelers' tendencies as well as anyone. The Steelers were 25th in yards per rush last season despite having Le'Veon Bell, who could enter the matchup extremely rusty if he has another prolonged holdout like last year. If you discount the Steelers' last road game in which they scored 34 points against the Texans and their backup quarterback, T.J. Yates, Pittsburgh has failed to score more than 21 points in seven of its last nine road games. Taylor has a 23-5 record when his team allows 21 or less points. Note, too, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are 1-5-1 ATS in Week 1 during the past seven years.
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -8.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -103 | 100 h 4 m | Show |
Three big reasons why I like the Patriots: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and New England's defense. The first two reasons are obvious. The combination of home-field and Brady versus Blake Bortles are worthy of the point spread right there. Jacksonville's defense was outstanding during much of the regular season. But Brady is at his finest against the type of zone cover style the Jaguars use. The Jaguars' defense also has been wearing down after carrying their offense for so many games. Jacksonville has given up an average of 32 points during its last four road games. It's the Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest points since Week 5. By far, the Patriots have the more playoff experience, big-game experience and discipline. All of that is going to matter here. The Patriots can win by talent, or by scheme and coaching. The Jaguars can't outscheme the Patriots. Brady has a balanced attack. He'll be able to slice up the Jaguars' defense with quick slants and utilizing versatile Dion Lewis. The Patriots also are expected to get back wide receiver Chris Hogan and running back James White, one of the best pass-catching runners out of the backfield in the NFL. Hogan is a big upgrade on Phillip Dorsett and gives Brady another strong receiving target to go with Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola. The Jaguars' offense looked great against the Steelers last week. But Jacksonville has yet to achieve trusted consistency on offense relying heavily on rookie Leonard Fournette. Before putting up 45 points on the Steelers last week, the Jaguars had scored only 10 points during each of their last two games. The Patriots aren't going to let Fournette beat them. I don't see Bortles, one of the most inaccurate throwers in the league, and his inexperienced wide receiving corps keeping up with Brady.
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 155 h 49 m | Show |
The oddsmaker isn't giving the Vikings enough credit here. Minnesota's home field advantage is worth the spread alone - and the Vikings are much superior to the Saints. Minnesota is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Vikings are 7-1 at home, including defeating the Saints, 29-19, opening week. New Orleans has lost and failed to cover in its past three road games. The Saints are 4-3 SU in their last seven games and 2-6 ATS during their past eight games. Drew Brees is the best quarterback on the field. But he doesn't have the receiving talent he's had in past years and is going against the best defense in football. The Vikings have no weaknesses especially on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up the fewest yards per game and fewest points per game at 15.8. Minnesota also ranked No. 2 in run defense and pass defense. Case Keenum is having a magical and career season. He's mobile and can rely on two solid running backs plus good receivers headed by Adam Thielen, who had the fifth most receiving yards in the league. Stefon Diggs is highly effective when healthy, which he is, and Kyle Rudolph is one of the best red zone tight ends. Both Diggs and Rudolph scored eight touchdowns this season. Another plus for Minnesota's offense is rookie center Pat Elfein is back practicing after being out and is likely to play. He's had an outstanding season. The Saints defense is improved, but is back to being shaky due to multiple injuries and fatigue. The Saints peaked during the middle part of the season in October and November. They've only played really well once in their last seven games. They lost to the Buccaneers in Week 17 surrendering 445 yards. The Saints defense has been on the field for 152 plays during the last two weeks, a massive amount, while the Vikings enjoyed a well-earned bye this past week. The combination of being down four defensive starters from the start of season and a heavy fatigue factor is going to leave the Saints defense highly vulnerable, while the Saints offense isn't going to be able to generate enough points to stay with Minnesota being on the road and operating against the premier defense in football.
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7.5 | 45-42 | Loss | -100 | 149 h 52 m | Show | |
I could write this analysis in two words: Blake Bortles. He's not beating the Steelers on the road. No matter how good Jacksonville's defense is, the Jaguars can't beat an elite foe on the road with Bortles behind center. He's too turnover-prone and inaccurate. The Steelers' run defense has taken a hit with Ryan Shazier out, but they will load the box just like the Bills did in holding the Jaguars to 10 points at home this past Sunday. Leonard Fournette isn't nearly as healthy and fresh as he was when the Jaguars stunned the Steelers at Heinz Field in Week 5. Bortles didn't play well in that game either. It was the Jaguars' defense that came up with five interceptions that set up that victory. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history at home and in cold weather. Jacksonville hasn't played a cold weather game all season. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20s with a chance of snow. Antonio Brown should return for the Steelers. Even if he doesn't, Roethlisberger has a balanced attack. The Jaguars defense has to play things straight knowing Le'Veon Bell can beat them on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield while Roethlisberger has downfield targets with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant. It's just an added plus if Brown is in the lineup, too. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 55 h 30 m | Show | |
Too much respect is being given to the Falcons here and not enough to the Eagles. The oddsmaker has overadjusted to Nick Foles being the Eagles quarterback. The Eagles are home, by far the more rested team, have the superior defense and an edge in special teams. The Eagles will win this game with defense and a strong ground game. The Falcons have the more name players on offense, but Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman all had down seasons especially compared to last season. Ryan has not thrown more than one touchdown pass during his last seven games. Jones scored just three touchdowns this season. Freeman rushed for 214 fewer yards than last season and accounted for eight touchdowns after scoring 13 touchdowns last season. Philadelphia was unbeaten at home this season until deciding to rest many of its starters in Week 17 during a loss to Dallas. The Eagles hold a strong homefield edge made moreso by cold weather, which the Falcons have yet to encounter this season. There's also a fatigue factor to consider. While many of the main Eagles have been off for nearly three weeks, the Falcons are playing in their third road game in four weeks. The Falcons have had to play either an above .500 team, or division rival, during each of the last 10 weeks. That's not only a physical drain, but a mental one, too.
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
It's a nice story that the Bills finally made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. But, truth be told, the Bills have no business in the postseason. Buffalo was minus 57 in point differential. The Chargers, by contrast, were plus 83 in scoring differential but failed to make the playoffs. If LeSean McCoy doesn't play, the Bills will have the worst set of skill position players I've ever seen for a playoff team. Even if McCoy plays, he will be extremely limited by an ankle injury. It's not a surprise Buffalo ranked 31st in passing. Tyrod Taylor is more runner than thrower. The Bills thought so little of Taylor they benched him for Nathan Peterman in Week 11. Taylor has no decent wide receiving options. If McCoy is a no-go, the Bills' running backs will be plodding third-stringer Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy, who was just called up from the practice squad when second-string running back Travaris Cadet was lost for the season with a broken ankle in Week 16. The Jaguars give up the second-fewest points and yards per game in the league. They rank No. 1 in pass defense. I can't see the Bills putting up many points - if any - against the home Jaguars. Blake Bortles had a strong December with the exception of his last game. If you discount that performance on the road against the Titans in Week 17, Bortles had thrown nine touchdowns in his past four games. He has 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to do the heavy lifting. There's also the Doug Marrone factor. He coached the Bills from 2013-14 and so is extra familiar with Buffalo. Marrone's stay in Buffalo didn't end well so he won't be reluctant to run up a score.
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 28 m | Show |
The Titans were good at two things this season - winning at home and beating foes from their weak AFC South Division. What the Titans aren't good at is winning on the road and defeating strong opponents. Tennessee has lost and failed to cover five of its last seven away matchups. The Titans' only victories during this span were against the winless Browns in overtime and beating the four-win Colts by four points. Except for the Jaguars, the Titans didn't beat a playoff team. The Titans have just two victories since Dec. 3. They lack playoff experience, too, having last made the postseason back in 2008. Kansas City is playoff-tested having made the postseason three of the past four seasons, including the last two. Andy Reid is a much better coach than Mike Mularkey and the Chiefs were able to rest a number of their key starters this past Sunday. The Chiefs play excellent defense at Arrowhead Stadium - holding foes to fewer than 17 points per game on the season - and their offense is back in gear. The Chiefs finished the regular season winning and covering their last four games while averaging 28 points. The Titans surrendered 27 touchdown passes. Their defense is far less effective on the road. Alex Smith had a career season leading the NFL in passer rating and shedding his image of being a mere game-manager. Smith's greatest strength is not turning the ball over. He has weapons with rookie Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill both establishing themselves as big-play threats. Hunt led the NFL in rushing. Travis Kelce is a top-three tight end. The Chiefs' braintrust of Reid and sharp offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is far superior to Mularkey, whose conservative strategies caused promising third-year quarterback Marcus Mariota to regress. Mariota was picked off a career-high 15 times. The Titans probably aren't going to have DeMarco Murray. So the Titans are left to counter the Chiefs' high-powered, balanced attack with Mariota, who has played much worse on the road, and Derrick Henry. The Chiefs are likely to load the box since the Titans have failed to establish a downfield passing game, another weakness of Mularkey. Tennessee averaged 15 points in losing its last two road games, falling to the Cardinals and 49ers. Neither of those teams made the playoffs.
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12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 23 m | Show | |
I don't see the Buccaneers being able to stop the Saints' balanced attack. The Bucs' defense is battered and worn down. The Saints have arguably the top running back tandem with Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. Drew Brees remains as sharp as ever on pace to set the NFL record for highest completion rate in a season at 71.9. Tampa Bay has lost five in a row. The Buccaneers have managed to hang in during this losing streak but they've been terrible through the years as a home 'dog and I just don't see a strong effort from them. Jameis Winston has had a poor year and is down several key receiver targets. Winston still isn't 100 percent due to a shoulder injury. I'm not impressed with any of Tampa Bay's running backs. The Saints' defense is much improved. New Orleans has covered 13 of its last 17 road contests. The spread is fair considering the Saints are not only the superior team, but the more motivated looking to win a division title.
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12-31-17 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chargers | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
The Raiders have a strong recent history of playing the Chargers tough. Oakland has won four of the past five meetings between the two teams. The Chargers' lone victory during this span came this season, 17-16, on Oct. 15. The line is inflated due to the Chargers needing to win to keep alive their playoff hopes. LA, though, really has no home field advantage. There could be as many Raiders fans in attendance. The Raiders aren't going to lie down here against this division foe. Jack Del Rio's coaching future could be on the line and the Raiders have several below-the-radar factors going their way here. One of these factors is an edge in special teams for Oakland. The Raiders have a dangerous returner in Cordarrelle Patterson and a good punter in Marquette King, who has the Raiders ranked third in net punting yards. The Chargers are below average on special teams with their inconsistent kicking game and they won't have perhaps their best special teams player in Adrian Phillips. He's out with an ankle injury. The Raiders' defense has improved since John Pagano replaced Ken North Jr. as the defensive coordinator. The Chargers have key skill position players banged-up. Tight end Hunter Henry is out with a kidney injury and Melvin Gordon may not play because of an ankle injury, which would leave third-stringer Braden Oliver as the main ball-carrier. Even if Gordon plays he'll be limited in his cutting. Gordon had 150 yards from scrimmage in the Chargers' one-point victory against the Raiders. The Chargers have a strong secondary and good pass rush. Their weakness is run defense, where they rank last in the NFL. Bilal Powell rushed for 145 yards on 19 carries against LA last Sunday and Kareem Hunt ran for 155 yards on 24 carries two weeks ago against the Chargers in helping Kansas City win, 30-13. The Raiders are going to pound away at the Chargers with Marshawn Lynch. This will make things easier for Derek Carr , who had just returned from a back injury when the team's met the first time. Mobile quarterbacks such as Carr have given the Chargers problems.
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12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -122 | 133 h 30 m | Show |
Seattle is one of those teams in must-win mode Sunday. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and Carolina defeats or ties Atlanta then Seattle makes the playoffs. The Panthers-Falcons game has been moved back to start at the same time as the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup. The Panthers are in the postseason but have motivation to beat the Falcons as they have a chance to gain a No. 2 seeding and a first-round bye with a victory. I don't see the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals, who are extremely banged-up, have performed poorly on the road and have a stiff at quarterback in Drew Stanton. Russell Wilson is in the MVP discussion having his finest season. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are mediocre versus the pass. Wilson has the receiving depth and mobility to be highly effective against the Cardinals defense. Arizona has has lost five of its seven road contests while going 1-6 ATS. The Cardinals' two away victories were against the 3-12 Colts in overtime and the 49ers, who were winless at the time. In their last three games, the Cardinals have managed just two touchdowns. Their offensive line is decimated with D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati and Earl Watford all out. Seattle's defensive front seven should easily win the battle of the trenches. Arizona is down to third-stringer Kerwynn Williams as its main runner with David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out. Seattle has maybe the toughest outdoor venue for opponents in the NFL. The Seahawks have revenge for the Cardinals beating them on Christmas Eve last year that knocked them out of the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks have a special dislike for Stanton still recalling his sideline celebration from four years ago when the Cardinals defeated them at Century Link Field. The 33-year-old Stanton wasn't good then and he's not good now. He's completed only 51.2 percent of his throws, which is right in line with his career percent. He is an inaccurate, career journeyman who lacks pass protection and a ground game. The Cardinals are tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways with 24, including turning the ball over twice during each of their last five games. The hard-hitting Seahawks defense, headed by Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas, can take advantage. The Legion of Boom is wounded, but far from dead holding the Cowboys to no touchdowns this past Sunday despite the game being played in Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension.Now the Seahawks are home against a much weaker offense. The line has climbed since I released this play, but I see this as a total kill spot for the Seahawks. |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
There's line inflation here because of the Rams trampling the Seahawks, 42-7, and the Titans losing to the 49ers after also falling to the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Rams are in a tough situational spot now and the Titans finally are back home where they play much better. Tennessee has won nine of its last 10 home games. Marcus Mariota has had four of his five highest rated passing games at home this season with the other one coming against San Francisco this past Sunday. The Rams have a banged-up secondary. Just two weeks ago, they surrendered four touchdown passes to the Eagles. The lookahead line for this game last week before Sunday's action was Rams minus three. So the line has more than doubled. The Rams were impressive against the Seahawks. But Seattle also played terrible, by far its worst game of the season. Still, that was the Rams' biggest victory in more than a decade and all but clinched the NFC West Division title for them. The Rams have a lot of youth, including their head coach. They have to travel cross-country in an obvious letdown spot right before Christmas. They're going to encounter a desperate and physical Titans team. Tennessee has the ability to control clock, taking advantage of LA's 24th-ranked run defense with one of the better running back tandems in the league with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A hidden key to the Rams' success is their special teams. Now those special teams took a monster hit with Greg Zuerlein out for the season with a herniated disc in his back. He was having one of the best kicking seasons in NFL history leading the league in scoring while making 38 of 40 field goals. So the Rams go from having the best kicker in football to going with unknown Sam Ficken.
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12-24-17 | Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins | 11-27 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
The bar is not set very high here for Denver to cover, plus I have to believe the veteran Broncos show up knowing Vance Joseph isn't likely to be fired and the roster will be retooled during the off-season. This is an important showcase game for the Broncos especially quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Both could see action. I don't like either player, although Osweiler is coming off a rare splendid performance. Keep in mind, though, Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense and will be without Zach Brown, the top tackler in the league. The Redskins defense had to defend 80 plays last week, a monster number made worse by this being so late in the season. So they could easily wilt. The Broncos will be the much fresher team since they played last Thursday. I do like the Broncos' defense very much. This is a defense that carried them to a Super Bowl victory just two seasons ago and still retains dominant pass rushers and lock down defensive backs. Denver has been playing its best defense during the past two weeks holding the Jets and Colts to a combined 13 points and less than 350 yards. The Broncos defense can dominate weak offenses and Washington's offense is sputtering done in by a cluster injury problem in the offensive line and its top weapons out. The Redskins permitted 23 sacks last season. They've allowed 38 already this season and will be minus their best offensive lineman with left tackle Trent Williams out with a knee injury. The Redskins could have another new offensive line combination this week depending on injuries. Kirk Cousins can't generate much offense anymore because of his makeshift offensive line and down his top receiver, Jordan Reed, and best running back, Chris Thompson. Washington has weak special teams, too, so its offense doesn't often get good starting field position. I'm expecting the crowd count to be way down with this game rendered meaningless so the Redskins' home field advantage is reduced.
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12-17-17 | Titans +2 v. 49ers | 23-25 | Push | 0 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
The 49ers are rejuvenated thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo. But let's not go overboard here. San Francisco is 2-0 since Garoppolo became the starter beating the Bears and Texans. The Titans are a clear level higher than those teams if not two levels better. The Titans are off a bad 12-7 road loss to Arizona this past Sunday. Before that, though, the Titans had won six of seven. Tennessee's offense is capable of much better than it has shown lately. Marcus Mariotta has had some bad luck with interceptions. He remains an emerging franchise quarterback with two solid running backs. The Titans' defense is somewhat underrated having allowed 20 or fewer points in all but one of their last seven games. The Titans are very much in the playoff picture holding down the No. 1 spot right now for an AFC wild-card berth. However, their last two regular season games are against the Rams and Jaguars. So they can't afford to lose this game. The Titans are putting tremendous effort and concentration into securing a win here. That's why the team has spent this week in California practicing on grass in warm weather after playing in Arizona this past Sunday. The 49ers are improved due to Garoppolo. They still aren't a good team, though. Far from it. San Francisco doesn't usually play well either versus good teams going 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against above .500 opponents. The 49ers have failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 home games, too.
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers -4 | 38-39 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
It's easy to point out how the Steelers have won seven in a row and are 9-0 during their last nine regular-season primetime regualr season games. This handicap for me, though, comes down to trusting the Steelers offense at home to easily outscore Baltimore's pop-gun attack. Ben Roethlisberger is a beast at home. I regard Joe Flacco as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Baltimore's run defense has gotten much better, but its secondary is very much weakened without its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith. The Ravens are vulnerable to Antonio Brown and if their safeties help out with pass coverage - as they need to do - then running lanes open up more for Le'Veon Bell, the leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh is down linebacker Ryan Shazier, their best all-around defensive player. But the Steelers have a very strong pass rush ranking No. 2 with 40 sacks. Shazier does not have a sack on the season. I don't see the Ravens keeping up with Roethilisberger and Co.
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12-10-17 | Jets v. Broncos +1.5 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Yes, the Jets have overachieved and Denver has been the most disappointing team in the AFC. But making the Jets a road favorite in this matchup is going too far overboard. The Jets have done their damage at home. They are 1-4 on the road with their lone away victory coming against the winless Browns in a game they were outplayed and outyarded in. Denver's defense has top 10 talent. Many of the same defenders were on the Broncos' Super Bowl team of just two years ago. The Broncos can handle journeyman Josh McCown at home. McCown could be without his top receiver as Robby Anderson sustained a hamstring injury during practice Thursday. The Broncos have been done in by atrocious quarterback play. Trevor Siemian, though, is an upgrade on Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Siemian is better than he was last week and is operating against a bottom-10 Jets defense.
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12-10-17 | Packers v. Browns +3.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
Points are going to be at a premium in this cold-weather matchup with winds in the 15 mph range. The Packers aren't good enough minus Aaron Rodgers to lay points on the road. The Browns are winless. Yes, that is a fact. It's a mistake, though, to underrate them in this home matchup when they are starved for a victory and catch the Packers perhaps looking ahead to next week when Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return. Cleveland can play effective defense. The Browns have better defensive statistics than the Packers giving up the 10th-fewest yards in the league. The Packers, by contrast, rank 25th in defensive yardage. The Browns held the Chargers to 19 points in Los Angeles last week, while the Packers gave up nearly 400 yards to the Buccaneers at home this past Sunday despite Tampa Bay missing its best running back, Doug Martin, and two of its better starting offensive linemen. The Packers have injuries in their secondary. Cleveland has receiving weapons now to take advantage with Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman healthy to join athletic tight end David Njoku and running back Duke Johnson out of the backfield. Quarterback has been the Browns' downfall. But if there's a quarterback who has been as bad, if not even worse than DeShone Kizer, it is Brett Hundley, who has a 70.8 passer rating and a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hundley passed for just 84 yards last week against the Buccaneers, who rank second-to-last in pass defense and were missing starting cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and safety T.J. Ward. Hundley offers no downfield passing threat. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have done nothing with Hundley at quarterback. The Packers are going to take a conservative approach here running Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones knowing aggressive Browns defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is going to be putting in exotic blitz packages to take advantage of Hundley's lack of pocket presence. The strength of the Browns is their sixth-ranked run defense. So don't look for the Packers to put up many points. I find Mike McCarthy to be an extremely overrated coach fortunate to be propped up by Rodgers. The Packers are 4-15-1 under McCarthy when Rodgers hasn't played.
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
It's been an emotional week for the Giants with Ben McAdoo getting fired and Eli Manning restored as the starting quarterback. Usually controversial weeks are not good for the concentration of a team. But in the Giants' case this is good because it should wake them up. The Giants have underachieved all season. Part of this has been because of a toxic atmosphere. Now, at least for this game against a hated division rival, the Giants should play with passion and intensity. Their defense still has good players and Manning is a big upgrade on Geno Smith. New York has held Dallas to an average of 15 points during the past three meetings. The Cowboys aren't that good without suspended Ezekiel Elliott. Not having him has trickled down to everyone including Dak Prescott, who has a 64.3 passer rating minus Elliott compared to 97.9 with him. Both teams are 1-3 in their last four games. The Cowboys' win during this span came against the Redskins last week at home, 38-14. Dallas was not as special as that score might indicate, though, as the Redskins allowed a punt return for a touchdown and were minus four in turnovers. The Cowboys averaged just 4.2 yards per play. Dallas also has a long injury list. I expect cornerback Orlando Scandrick and David Irving, their second-best pass rusher, to be out for sure.
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12-10-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Bengals | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
The Bears aren't good. But neither are the 5-7 Bengals. Cincinnati has just two victories by more than four points. The Bengals are in no position to lay this many points following their brutal Monday night loss to the Steelers, which realistically eliminated them from playoff contention. Marvin Lewis is coaching his final season. He's not going to be able to get his team up for the lowly Bears after they blew a 17-point lead to the Steelers. The Bengals would be hard-pressed to cover a touchdown even if they were healthy - which they are not. The battered Bengals may be minus seven starters if star defensive tackle Geno Atkins can't go because of a toe injury. The Bengals already are down their best running back, Joe MIxon, and top tackler, Vontaze Burfict. They also aren't likely to have linebacker Nick Virgil and three/fourths of their starting secondary with Adam Jones, Dre Kilpatrick and Shawn Williams all injured. I'm not a fan of John Fox. But I can at least trust the Bears to put forth a strong effort against Cincinnati. Fox is coaching for his future. HIs team won't quit. The Bengals offense isn't strong enough to product many points, which the oddsmaker acknowledges with this low total, and their defense is extremely beat-up. The Bears will hang in and are live 'dogs to win straight-up.
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
It's always rough being the visitor for the Thursday night NFL game. The Saints' journey is made even more difficult by how late it is in the season when the wear-and-tear really takes a toll. The Saints had a very early bye, too, being idle in Week 5. This marks their third straight marquee matchup having traveled to LA to face the Rams two weeks ago and hosting the Panthers this past Sunday, which was a late day start. These two teams are very even with balanced, potent offenses and improved defenses. But getting the Falcons at home on a short week is worth more than a normal home field advantage especially with the Saints being the more banged-up team. Atlanta has been home for the past three weeks so it has a nice situational edge. Both teams are going to play hard. The Falcons have more at stake, though, besides protecting their home field. They need to win to keep the Saints from taking a major step in clinching the NFC South Division. A loss also would drop the Falcons to 7-6 and put them in the thick of trying to qualify for a highly-competitive wild-card spot. Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer. Matt Ryan is the reigning MVP. Brees historically has been less effective on the road. Julio Jones is the best wideout on the field. He'll be especially dangerous if Marshon Lattimore, the Saints prize rookie cornerback, can't play, or is hobbled, by an ankle injury that has caused him to miss the past two games. If you can't contain Jones, you can't beat the Falcons. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are one of the best running back tandems in the league. They are trumped, however, by Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. They've scored 16 of the Saints' NFL-leading 19 rushing touchdowns. There is a catch here, though: The Saints have key injuries besides Lattimore. Ingram has a toe injury. He didn't practice Wednesday and is questionable. Karma is a sprinter not a workhorse. His effectiveness could be compromised without Ingram to do the heavy lifting. There is more. The Saints also could be minus two starting offensive linemen. Left guard Andrus Peat already has been declared out with a groin injury. He had played in every one of New Orleans' snaps on offense. Left tackle Terron Armstread is questionalbe. He missed last Sunday's game with a groin injury, too. So the short week really hits the Saints hard. The injury news is much brigther for the Falcons. Their star cornerback, Desmond Trufant, has been cleared from his concussion symptoms that caused him to miss last Sunday's 14-9 loss to the Vikings. Nickel back Brian Poole also missed that game due to a back injury. He's expected to play, too. Pick'em type games often are the hardest to get involved in. So while this is far from a max unit recommendation, the Falcons have enough going for them with situation, home field on a short week and favorable injury status to get the nod.
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 91 h 49 m | Show | |
These teams met in the Seahawks' 10th game of the season last year. Seattle was a 6 1/2-point home favorite and won, 26-15. Now, a little more than a year later, the Eagles are favored by nearly that amount. Is a 12-point swing justified? The Eagles are greatly improved. Carson Wentz has become a franchise quarterback. Seattle is missing two defensive back stars, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks have lost their last two home games. But, no, this line is out of whack. I expect the Seahawks to win this game straight-up. Never in Pete Carroll's eight years in Seattle have the Seahawks dropped three home games in a row. Century-Link Field remains the toughest outdoor venue in the league for opposing teams. The Seahawks have a history of stepping up late in the season under Carroll as evidenced by a 19-6-1 ATS mark during their past 26 December games. Seattle's defense still is very good. The Seahawks limit opponents to 98.4 yards rushing. They rank in the top 10 in fewest yards allowed, rushing defense and pass defense. Seattle has held its past two opponents to fewer than 200 yards passing despite not having Sherman and Chancellor. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Seattle's front seven remains imposing especially at home. Wentz has been tremendous. But Russell Wilson is one of the few quarterbacks who trump him. Wilson is the best quarterback in the NFC, accounting for a higher percentage of his team's yards than any other player in the league. Wilson has good receiving targets and his uncanny mobility offsets Seattle's poor offensive line and lack of a ground attack. The Eagles can afford a loss here. The Seahawks can't. The urgency to win is with Seattle.
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12-03-17 | Panthers +4.5 v. Saints | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 21 m | Show | |
Both teams are 8-3 and first place is at stake in the NFC South Division. The Saints are home and have the more dynamic offense. But the Panthers are a strong road club with the superior defense and in revenge mode. The points are generous. So I'm going with the 'dog. New Orleans is much improved defensively. This improvement just makes the Saints average on defense, though. The Saints also may be missing their starting cornerbacks with Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley hoping to gain clearance after sitting out last week with injuries. Carolina has a very strong defense ranking No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and eighth in scoring defense. The Panthers have the No. 3 run defense and are sixth in pass defense. The Saints will have to earn their points. New Orleans has played three strong teams this season - the Vikings, Patriots and Rams. The Saints lost each of those matchups. Aside from beating Carolina, 34-13 in Week 3, the Saints' only other victory against an above .500 team came against the Lions in a wild matchup. Cam Newton played terrible in the Panthers' loss to the Saints. He had a season-low passer rating and threw three interceptions. I expect him to play much better. Newton is far more effective when he's running and that should be the case against the Saints in this division showdown. Carolina has covered in seven of its last eight road games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 6-0 ATS. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans. The Panthers are in a better travel spot, too. They had their bye two weeks ago and then got some rust off playing the Jets this past Sunday. The Saints were fortunate to defeat a beat-up Redskins squad two weeks ago at home and had to return from the West Coast this past Sunday following a loss to the Rams.
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12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers +1.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 86 h 35 m | Show | |
Jameis Winston's return is the big news for Tampa Bay. But underneath that headline should be that the Buccaneers are going to be without two starting offensive linemen, right tackle Demar Dotson and center Ali Marpet. Both were injured this past Sunday and are out for the season with knee injuries. They were among the Buccaneers' top three offensive linemen. Doug Martin likely is out, too, for Tampa Bay after suffering a concussion. He's by far the Buccaneers' best running back. Winston might be rusty after being out a month. He's a hot and cold quarterback capable of throwing multiple touchdown passes, or multiple interceptions. The Buccaneers are 4-7 and headed nowhere. Their victories have been against foes who have a 13-31 combined record. The Packers' offense finally showed life under Brett Hundley on the road in Pittsburgh against a very strong defense, one much better than Tampa Bay's. The Packers put up 28 points, the second-most points the Steelers have allowed all season. That has to boost Hundley's confidence. Jamaal Williams has been solid at running back and Hundley should have ample time to find Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb since the Buccaneers lack a pass rush ranking last in sacks with 15. The Buccaneers also are at the bottom in total defense.
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11-26-17 | Packers v. Steelers -14 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -104 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
You have to go all the way back to 1976 to find the last time the Packers were two-touchdown underdogs like they are here. I've been closely following the Packers since the early 1960's. It hasn't all been Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. I've seen a lot of bad Green Bay quarterbacks. Brett Hundley can take his place among them. Hundley has played 19 quarters. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 2-to-10. He's been sacked 17 times and his passer rating is 63.6. The Packers are averaging 13.4 points in the five games Hundley has played since replacing the injured Rodgers. All but one of Hundley's starts have come at home, too. Now the Packers have to play at Heinz Field where they will be lucky to score 10 points against a Pittsburgh defense that is second in sacks with 34. The Steelers defense is solid up front, has linebackers who run and hit and have a strong secondary with physical safeties in the middle. No team has scored more than 17 points on the Steelers during their past five games. Hundley isn't playing with a full deck either. Green Bay is down to third-string running back Jamaal Williams and has a huge hole at offensive right tackle. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have been exposed as mediocre commodities nearly totally dependent on Rodgers setting them up. Davonte Adams has been the Packers' only effective receiving target since Rodgers went down. Unfortunately for the Packers, they also face great obstacles on defense. The Steelers have tremendous weapons and their offense is playing at their highest level coming off a 40-17 victory against Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger has helped Pittsburgh win five in a row by throwing for 1,328 yards, 10 touchdowns and compiling a 102.7 quarterback rating during this span. Antonio Brown is leading the NFL in receptions and yards. Le'Veon Bell is back leading the league in rushing. The Packers have a cluster injury problem in their secondary and may be without linebacker Clay Matthews and underrated nose tackle Kenny Clark. Pittsburgh is on extra rest and sure to be motivated with this being a nationally televised home game. Since Heinz Field opened in 2001, the Steelers are 19-3 in prime time night games when Roethlisberger has been under center. So, yes, this is that time to lay heavy wood in an NFL game.
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11-26-17 | Titans -3 v. Colts | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show | |
I get that Marcus Mariota has a poor road record. But the difference between these two teams is far more than a field goal. That was proven back in Week 6 when the Titans controlled the ball for nearly 36 minutes in whipping the Colts, 36-22. So what has changed? Nothing. Andrew Luck was last spotted in Europe. The Colts offense is several tiers below the Titans not only at quarterback, but in the offensive line and running back. The Colts have the best wide receiver in T.Y. Hilton, but the Titans have the superior tight end and the second and third-best wideouts. Mariota wasn't even 100 percent when the Titans defeated the Colts by two touchdowns. He is now. The Colts' defense is well below average with few legitimate NFL starters. The Colts are off a bye, but the Titans also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Titans have playoff motivation. The Colts have no such incentive and could be flat drawing their bye so late in the season. It could be difficult for them to rejuvenate their juices especially with no playoff hope.
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11-26-17 | Bucs +10.5 v. Falcons | 20-34 | Loss | -135 | 51 h 16 m | Show | |
Atlanta isn't nearly as good as last season, while the Buccaneers are playing better with the pressure off winning their last two, both with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The Falcons have a below .500 ATS mark. They are 3-4 SU in their last seven games. Only once in their last eight games have they won by more than five points. The Falcons' Big Three of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are not matching last year's marks. Ryan is averaging 53 fewer yards passing per game. Jones has only one touchdown and just two 100-yard receiving games. Freeman could be out of action for a second straight game due to a concussion. The Buccaneers have gotten healthier on defense. They have playmakers on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay has won and covered in three of its last four meetings against the Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a Monday upset road win against the always physical Seahawks. So the Falcons are on a short week.
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11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 143 h 46 m | Show |
The Patriots are coming together both offensively and defensively. New England hasn't allowed more than 17 points to any of its past five opponents holding those foes to an average of 13.4 points during this span. Tom Brady is having another masterful season. He should pick apart a soft Raiders secondary that still does not have an interception yet. Dion Lewis is coming on, Rob Gronkowski is healthy and speedster Brandin Cooks has to be taken into account, too. The Raiders were torched by Jay Cutler in their last game. So they're very vulnerable to the much superior Brady. Derek Carr still might not be 100 percent. He's not going to be able to keep up with Brady. This game is being played in high altitude in Mexico City. The Patriots just played the Broncos in Denver and are staying in Colorado this week to get fully acclimitated to the higher elevation.
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11-19-17 | Jaguars v. Browns +8.5 | 19-7 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
I understand the Browns are snake bit and find ways to not only lose games, but fail to cover spreads. But I have to take more than a touchdown here with Cleveland. The oddsmaker is projecting a low score and I concur. That means points should be at a premium. The Browns rank 11th in total defense and fourth in run defense. They have talent on defense. The Jaguars are run-oriented. They could be missing their best runner, rookie Leonard Fournette. He's dealing with an ankle injury. This is Jacksonville's first cold weather game of the season and first away matchup in four weeks. The Jaguars are in a flat spot, winners of three in a row and now playing the worst team in the NFL. Cleveland is hungry for a victory especially at home. Rookie DeShone Kizer is coming off his best game. Kizer has derailed the Browns offense with his turnovers. However, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has been a turnover machine, too, during his NFL career. Improvement should continue to come for Kizer as we're into Week 11. The Jaguars would prefer to grind out a victory without having to trust Bortles especially with a banged-up wide receiving corps. That should ensure a close game. If Bortles throws more than warranted than the Jaguars are going to be in trouble.
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11-12-17 | Chargers +4 v. Jaguars | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 10 m | Show | |
Jacksonville is improved, but not enough to be laying more than a field goal to a decent Chargers squad that has won three of their last four with the lone defeat during this span coming to the Patriots. The Jaguars have a minimal home field edge. This is an early start and a long road trip for LA. But the Chargers had a bye last week so there should not be a fatigue factor. Philip Rivers not only gives LA a huge QB edge, but he has the savvy to know how to attack a talented Jacksonville defense. Rivers can move the ball with throws to Keenan Allen in the slot and Melvin Gordon out of the backfield. The Chargers finally have their No. 1 draft pick, wide receiver Mike Williams, ready to contribute. The Chargers defense has been playing well giving up just 37 points during their last three games and gets back linebacker Denzel Perryman from injured reserve. The Jaguars have a limited offense and Blake Bortles is turnover-prone.
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11-12-17 | Jets v. Bucs +2.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
The Jets have no business laying points on the road where they are 1-3 SU and ATS. New York's lone road win was a fluke against the Browns. The Jets were totally outplayed and outgained by 207 yards. They won because of rookie QB DeShone Kizer's turnovers. Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly is no rookie. He's played well when he's replaced Jameis Winston this season and will be highly motivated going against the last team he played for before coming to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers won't have suspended Mike Evans, but Fitzpatrick still has other weapons, including underrated tight end Cameron Brate. Fitzpatrick plays best against man coverage, which is the Jets' preferred style. There's a chance, too, the Jets could be missing their top cornerback, Morris Claiborne. The Jets won't have their second-best wideout, suspended Jeremy Kerley, and might also be without defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. The Buccaneers have received good news on the injury front. They get back their best cornerback, Brent Grimes, and could have a healthy offensive line. The Jets are one of the few teams who haven't had their bye yet. That comes next week. So their focus may be off.
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11-12-17 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Green Bay has beaten Chicago in 13 of the last 15 meetings. The Packers were 7 1/2-point favorites in Week 4 when they rolled past the Bears, 35-14. But now the spread has swung two touchdowns the other way with Aaron Rodgers out. It's too much of an ajustment. The Packers are better than they showed this past Monday night and the Bears aren't good enough to lay this many points. Sure Brent Hundley is going through growing pains filling in for Rodgers. But so is Bears rookie quarterback Mich Trubisky, who will be making only his fifth start. The Packers have far better receiving weapons than the Bears. Trubisky just lost his security blankett, too, with tight end Zach Miller suffering a serious leg injury. Trubisky is a game manager and game managers operating an ultra-conservative offense behind a defensive-minded coach, John Fox, aren't a team to back at this price. The Packers pulled in ranks after releasing distractful Martellus Bennett. Look for the unified, prideful Packers to beat the Bears here.
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
Seattle isn't as good as it has been the past few years. Attrition has taken a toll on the Seahawks' defense. But the Seahawks are still a well above team. Arizona is a bottom feeder with Drew Stanton behind center. If the Seahawks didn't blow Sunday's game to the Redskins, this line would look much higher. Seattle was better than Washington, though, outgaining the Redskins by nearly 200 yards. The Seahawks couldn't overcome a franchise-record 16 penalties and Blair Walsh missing three field goals. Walsh was 12 of 13 in field goals prior to that game. The Seahawks are taking heavy criticism for that bad disappointing performance. They are in bounce back mold and I fully expect that to happen. Russell Wilson is having a huge season. Paul Richardson is having a breakout season joining Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and Jimmy Graham to provide strong receivers for Wilson. Seattle's offensive line is upgrade with the addition of Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown. Thomas Rawls is healthy giving Seattle its best running back option. Arizona's defense is merely average. During their past four games, the Cardinals have gone against three good passing teams - the Eagles, Rams and Buccaneers. The Cardinals allowed an average of 419 yards through the air against those foes. Arizona has recovered only one fumble on the season and is tied for 25th in takeaways/giveaways at minus 4. The Cardinals' offensive line has started to play better. However, the Cardinals' attack now consists of just ancient Adrian Peterson running and Larry Fitzgerald catching short passes. Stanton is an immobile stiff, who can't hurt a defense with downfield passes. Peterson is 32, a senior citizen by running back age. He just ran a career-high 37 times this past Sunday. Now he's playing on a short week. His legs won't be there. The Seahawks aren't going to have a problem shutting down the Cardinals' scaled-back, limited attack and Arizona's defense isn't strong enough to contain Wilson and his weapons.
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Detroit a road favorite against the Packers at Lambeau Field where the Lions have lost nine of the past 10 times? It's true. That's what happens when Aaron Rodgers is out. Is this justified? The answer is no on many counts. Let's begin with the fact that Detroit is just a mediocre team. Much is being made of Green Bay having lost two in a row. Well the Lions have dropped three straight - home to the Panthers, at the Saints and home to the Steelers. The Lions are 3-4 with two of those victories coming against the Cardinals and Giants during the first two weeks of the season. The Lions can't run the ball - rushing for more than 96 yards just once - and have a below average defense ranking 23rd in points allowed and 22nd in yards given up. The Lions are without their best pass rusher, Kerry Hyder, and top run-defender, Haloti Ngata. Winning a division road game without a good running attack and defense is extremely difficult unless you have a superstar quarterback. Matthew Stafford is above average. He's not elite, though. The situation is against the Lions. The Packers desperately needed a bye to regroup. They've had two weeks to game plan and get healthy. Green Bay's offensive line is expected to be at full strength. Green Bay is 9-2 following a bye under Mike McCarthy. None of those losses came at home. The Packers have owned the Lions through the years winning 16 of the past 20 meetings. It's going to be cold. The Lions have become a warm weather team playing in a dome. All of this, though, is secondary to how Brett Hundley performs. This is the key. I say Hundley comes through here. Hundley was maybe the best quarterback in the league during preseason. OK, that was preseason facing vanilla defenses and backups. But he did display talent both with his arm and running ability. Now many are down on Hundley because of poor performances against the Vikings - when he suddenly was thrust into the game following Rodgers' broken collarbone - and versus the Saints. Those two teams have a combined record of 12-4 and rank third and 10th, respectively, in fewest points allowed per game. Their defenses are far superior to Detroit's defense. The Saints are giving up an average of 13 points during their last three games. This will be Hundley's second start. McCarthy and his ace offensive staff have had 15 days to work with Hundley and game plan for this matchup. Hundley not only will be fully assimilated into the offense, but adjustments will be made that feed into Hundley's strengths such as read-option plays. As added bonuses, Hundley has a healthy offensive line - something he wasn't close to having before - and the emergence of Aaron Jones has given Green Bay a respectable ground game. The Packers have had two of their three best rushing games during their last three games because of Jones, who has run for 413 yards and three touchdowns during this span. The Lions probably will try to take away Jones by putting an extra defender in the box forcing Hundley to beat them. Hundley can do that with one of the deepest receiving groups in the NFL headed by Jordy Nelson, Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb. No Hundley isn't close to being Rodgers. But he has a balanced attack behind him, should be coached up with ample prep time and with a healthy offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage against a mediocre defense playing on the road.
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 32 m | Show |
Seattle's defense is down a notch from its elite status of the past few seasons. The Seahawks can't run the ball either unless it's Russell Wilson taking off on a scramble. But the Seahawks still will beat the Redskins by more than a touchdown being at home and given all of Washington's injuries on both sides of the ball. Seattle's defense still is well above average. The Redskins can't compete against it on the road with a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, a weak ground attack and two of their three tight ends injured, including Jordan Reed. There's a chance Washington could be minus four starting offensive linemen plus their top reserve lineman. Wilson is playing at the highest level. His receivers are stepping up especially Paul Richardson. Jimmy Graham is healthier and becoming a factor. The Redskins have key defensive injuries. They are without their best run stuffer, Jonathan Allen. They also are down linebacker Mason Foster and maybe their second-best cornerback, Bashaud Breeland. Special teams play has become an issue, too, for the Redskins.
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11-05-17 | Broncos +8 v. Eagles | 23-51 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
This is last stand time for the 3-4 Broncos. They have the right personnel to upset the Eagles, who are flying high at 7-1 and due to crash. Philadelphia may take this one for granted with the Broncos making the decision to start Brock Osweiler. The Eagles also have a much bigger game on deck next Sunday - a division game against the Cowboys. The Broncos rank ninth in rushing. They are fourth in time of possession. They can stay on the ground with a trio of decent running backs in C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker. This would limit Osweiler's exposure. Osweiler is helped by getting back wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The Eagles rank 27th in pass defense. Carson Wentz had a monster October throwing a franchise-best 14 TD passes. Wentz, though, is just a second-year QB. He can be loose with the ball and is going against the toughest defense he's faced all season. Denver gives up the fewest yards per game and second-fewest rushing yards per game. The Broncos' cornerbacks are so good they can cover one-on-one and Von Miller is a top edge pass rusher. The Eagles are without their No. 1 offensive lineman, Jason Peters.
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10-29-17 | Texans v. Seahawks -6 | 38-41 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Going into Seattle is always rough. It's made rougher for the Texans because the Seahawks are playing well - three straight victories - and Houston's focus could be off due to comments made by team owner Bob McNair. McNair's "inmates running the prison" comment has caused a huge distraction among the Texans. Many plan to protest before the game. The Seahawks still have an elite veteran defense. Deshaun Watson is having a monster season, but he's a rookie going into the lion's den here. Houston is 1-6 ATS following a victory.
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10-29-17 | Falcons -4 v. Jets | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 95 h 9 m | Show | |
OK, I get that Atlanta is having a painful Super Bowl hangover. The Falcons have lost three in a row - all to AFC East opponents. Now the Falcons draw the weakest AFC East foe, the Jets. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Falcons. And the Jets are a good foe for them to get well against. I don't see any advantage the Jets have in this matchup with the Falcons holding major edges at the skill position spots. I also like the Falcons' defense better than the Jets particularly with Vic Beasley back in the lineup from injury. Matt Ryan isn't having a magical year like last season. But he's still Matt Ryan, which rates far above Josh McCown and his motley crew of below average wide receivers. The Falcons should dominate with Ryan, Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman. The line is fairly priced, too, because of the Falcons' losing streak.
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10-22-17 | Broncos +1.5 v. Chargers | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
The Chargers have yet to win or cover a game at home this season. It's not a surprise the Chargers are 0-3 at StubHub Center since they have no home field advantage in LA. Playing there is almost like being on the road. Philip Rivers certainly isn't fond of the team's new venue. He has a 3-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to 7-to-2 on the road. Rivers is having a down year for the second straight season. He ranks a below average 18th in passer ratings. The Broncos give up the fewest yards per game in the NFL. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are one of the best, if nto the best, cornerback tandem in the league. The Broncos have beaten the Chargers 11 of the last 13 times they've met, including a victory opening week. The Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. Denver is sure to be fired-up, too, after laying an egg on national TV this past Sunday night in a shocking home loss to the Giants.
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10-22-17 | Saints -5.5 v. Packers | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 51 m | Show | |
No player is more important to his team than Aaron Rodgers is to Green Bay. But the Packers' problems, unfortunately, go beyond Rodgers. Green Bay has cluster injury problems on the offensive line and in the secondary. The Packers are still shell shocked after losing Rodgers for the season with a broken collarbone. They played their worst game in years in losing to the Vikings this past Sunday. The Packers have their bye next week. They'll need it. They aren't ready for this week. The Saints are playing their best ball in years winning three in a row. The Saints have defeated the Panthers, Dolphins and Lions by a combined score of 106-51 during this span. The Saints beat the Panthers and Dolphins on the road. The Saints have only lost the ball three times. So they shouldn't beat themselves here. Drew Brees is as good as ever. His offensive line is improved and he has two good running backs and a deep group of wide receivers, who can take advantage of Green Bay's thin secondary. Green Bay lost six of seven games when it played offenses ranked 15th or better in offensive efficiency last year. And that was with Rodgters. New Orleans has improved its defense, too. It's now to the point where it is respectable. Look for the Saints to do plenty of blitzing against Brett Hundley, set to make his first pro start. Hundley has yet to prove that he has good pocket presence. The Packers had to finish against the Vikings with three third-stringers in their offensive line - left tackle Justin McCray, left guard Lucas Patrick and right tackle Ulrick John. McCray and John were terrible. This isnt' a question of good players having an off-game. These guys are backups who aren't nearly talented enough to be starters.
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10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
The linesmaker opened this game Miami minus 3 at home. This basically is saying then that these two teams are even if you factor in about a three-point home field edge for the Dolphins. My checkmarks give the Dolphins far more edges than the Jets. The situational element also favors Miami. The Jets are coming off a huge effort and a near-victory against their arch-rival the Patriots. The Dolphins have quick revenge after being embarrassed by the Jets in Week 3. The Jets thoroughly outplayed the Dolphins in their 20-6 win. The Dolphins were lucky they weren't shut out. But there were extenuating circumstances. Hurricane Irma had caused the Dolphins to not play opening week. The Dolphins then went to the West Coast and beat the Chargers in Week 2. Then they had to fly to the East Coast to play the Jets. Miami's offense still was a work in progress so early in the season with Jay Cutler getting in sync with his new team. The Dolphins' offense isn't good by any means. But they have some stability now with all that back-and-forth traveling, including a trip to London in Week 4, finally ending. The Dolphins showed a lot of heart coming back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to upset the Falcons on the road this past Sunday. Cutler did enough for Miami to win that game and Jay Ajayi had his best game of the season with 130 yards rushing. Ajayi will be the best running back on the field. Jarvis Landry is the best wideout of the two teams. DaVante Parker would be the second-best wideout if he's recovered from an ankle injury. Josh McCown is not better than Cutler. The Dolphins definitely have the better defense ranking third in fewest points allowed per game and 11th in fewest yards given up. The Jets were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns two weeks ago. Cleveland outgained New York by 202 yards and had eight more first downs. The Browns were done in by three turnovers and two missed field goals. This is the spot to recognize the Jets for being who we thought they were - a terrible team.
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10-15-17 | Bears v. Ravens -5 | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
Tough spot for the Bears traveling on a short week. Baltimore plays much better at home. The Ravens are 11-0 versus foes starting a rookie QB against them, which is the case here with the Bears and Mitch Trubisky. |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 8 m | Show |
There's actually a bit of line value in taking the Patriots with the Jets riding an improbable three-game win streak. Credit to the Jets for beating the Dolphins and Jaguars. They were fortunate, though, to defeat the winless Browns. The Jets are putting forth an effort. They will give their best shot here in this division rivalry. However, they are no match for the Patriots. The talent gap between these two offenses is the size of the Grand Canyon. Tom Brady remains a top-three quarterback. He's leading the NFL in passing yards and has the second-highest quarterback rating. The Patriots have outstanding wide receivers and excellent running back versatility and depth. Rob Gronkowski should be able to play this week, too. The Jets have a popgun offense made worse in that their best runner, Bilal Powell, isn't expected to play. The Patriots are on extra rest since they played last Thursday. The Patriots' defense finally showed some improvement against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. Belichick should be able to make further fixes with the added preparation time. The Patriots' disappointing cornerbacks shouldn't have any problems handling the Jets' non-descript wide receivers. This is a kill spot for the Patriots. They're not going to let up against this hated foe either.
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 53 m | Show |
OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span. The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week. Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests. It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe. |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | 17-14 | Loss | -114 | 80 h 49 m | Show | |
I never thought I would be writing these words this season, but the Jets are going for their third win in a row. Don't expect them to get it. The Jets have defeated the Dolphins and Jaguars in overtime last week. Both wins were achieved at home. They have their bigget game of the season going next week when they host the Patriots. This marks the Jets' lone road game during a four-week span. The Browns' roster is better than one AFC team - the Jets. Cleveland's defense will be bolstered by the return of lineman Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall draft pick. It's an added bonus if nose guard Danny Shelton and linebacker Jamie Colllins also are able to play. The winless Browns have a much stronger sense of urgency than the Jets for this one and they are home. It's not too much to ask Cleveland to simply win this game against a team where they hold a talent edge on in the offensive line and defensively. The Jets are one of the few teams that also doesn't hold an edge against the Browns skill position-wise.
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10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -8 | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 48 m | Show | |
The Steelers play much better at home particularly Ben Roethlisberger, whose passer rating is 24 points higher at Heniz Field since 2014. During the past four years, Roethlisberger has a 62-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to only 24-to-23 on the road. Le'Veon Bell is coming off his best game after a slow start rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens. Bell should be in line for another big game versus a Jacksonville defense that ranks last in run defense allowing 165.5 yards on the ground per game. Bell's running should set up Roethlisberger's play-action. The Jaguars seem better coached just because they've figured out their best way to win is run the ball and let Blake Bortles be a game manager rather than a gunslinger. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. But it's not strong enough to carry a weak offense. The Steelers are intimidating and play with a swagger defensively at home. Their offense can put up points fast taking the ball out of Leonard Fournette's hands and forcing Bortles to beat them. That won't happen in Pittsburgh. Bortles has been the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league with a knack for throwing pick-sixes. The Jaguars had to lose a lot of confidence by being outplayed and losing to the lowly Jets last week. This is a kill spot for the Steelers. They've buried much stronger teams that the Jaguars at home.
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 98 h 48 m | Show | |
The Giants are in must-win mode at 0-3. They should have beaten the Eagles last week. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL last season and their defense remains top-rate. Offense has been a major problem for the Giants. But things should click better now that Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy. The timing is good here for the Giants because the Buccaneers have a cluster injury problem on defense with their top defenders injured. Likely out for sure are linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. The Buccaneers also could be missing their two best defensive linemen, Gerald McCoy and Chris Baker, along with cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves. Promising pass rusher Noah Spence also is hurt with a separated shoulder. Eli Manning has never lost to Tampa Bay going 5-0. The Buccaneers have failed to cover eight of the last nine times when laying more than two points. The Giants won 11 games last season on their way to making the playoffs. The Buccaneers last made the postseason in 2007. The timing is ripe here for the Giants to get back on track against an inconsistent Bucs offense and extremely banged-up defense.
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10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
At 0-3 this is the Chargers' season. They catch the Eagles off a big division win against the Giants in which the Eagles were outgained by nearly two yards per play. The Chargers easily could be 2-1 instead of 0-3 if not for kicking mistakes by rookie Younghoe Koo. Philip Rivers is a high level QB. He's coming off one of the worst games of his career with a 37.2 passer rating and three interceptions against the Chiefs. I believe Rivers will bounce back strong here against an Eagles defense that is vulnerable in the secondary due to injuries and probably will be without its best defensive lineman, injured Fletcher Cox. The Chargers have a huge receiving edge with Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin operating against Rasul Douglas and Jalen Mills. The Eagles lost their most versatile threat and a top punt returner when Darren Sproles was injured against the Giants and lost for the season. Philly struggles to run the ball. Sproles was their best player in space. Carson Wentz has been sacked 11 times. Sparked by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, two of the top pass rushers in the league, the Chargers have recorded 11 sacks.
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10-01-17 | 49ers +7 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
The Cardinals have allowed Carson Palmer to be sacked 11 times, the fourth-highest total in the NFL. Palmer could have more trouble now that the left side of his offensive line has been ruled out as neither left tackle Mike Iupati nor left guard Alex Boone will play. Boone is out with a pectoral injury while Iupati was put on IR. Palmer is past his prime and doesn't have his security blanket, David Johnson. The absence of Johnson greatly weakens not only the Cardinals' ground attack, but also its passing. Johnson is the best pass catching starting running back in football. Arizona's receiving corps is banged-up, too, as neither John Brown nor JJ. Nelson are 100 percent. The 49ers got their offense going against the Rams scoring 39 points while finally showing a grasp of Kyle Shanahan's new offense. The 49ers' defense is improved from last year and better than it showed against the Rams, who are the most improved offensive team in the league. The 49ers have had extra rest and practice time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are on a short week having played this past Monday night. The Cardinals haven't been very good at home either failing to cover 12 of their last 18 home games.
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10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
Did you know the Rams are leading the NFL in scoring? It's true. After averaging a league-low 14 points last season, the Rams are putting up 35.7 points per game. The key is monster improvement from second-year quarterback Jared Goff. He was hindered by Jeff Fisher's neanderthal coaching last year. New coach, QB guru Sean McVay, has helped raise Goff's passer rating from 63.6 to 118.2. That's the largest increase ever for a QB going into his second season. Todd Gurley is a major factor now that defenses no longer can stack the line against him. The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary and are coming off a Monday night road win against the Cardinals. This is a short week for the Cowboys and a flat spot for them. Dallas hosts the Packers next week in a marquee matchup.
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10-01-17 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games. The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points. Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has. I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again. |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
Aside from Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' two most important players are defensive lineman Mike Daniels and offensive left tackle David Bakhtiari. Neither is expected to play against the Bengals. The Packers may have offensive right tackle Byran Bulaga and wide receiver Jordy Nelson - stressing the maybe - but the Packers are going to be without star pass rusher Nick Perry, probably linebacker Jake Ryan and wide receiver Randall Cobb. The Packers also have several injuries in their secondary. So Green Bay is far from 100 percent. The Bengals are a desperate 0-2 team. The Bengals have been a major disappointment offensively, but their defense is solid. Cincinnati had made the playoffs five straight seasons until last year. Only one of their last six defeats have been by more than five points. Cincinnati has too much skill position talent for its offense to stay this bad. The Bengals' work-in-progress offensive line catches a huge break with Daniels not likely to play. A change in offensive coordinators from Ken Zampese to Bill Lazor could spur immediate improvement while boosting sagging team morale. A.J. Green is the best receiver on the field. Lazor will make sure Green and promising rookie running back Joe Mixon are big parts of the offense. The Bengals have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played in the Thursday game last week. The Bengals have been a jinx team to Mike McCarthy and Rodgers as they've never beaten them. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 57 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are struggling to put up touchdowns through two games. The Titans very well could be the best team in the AFC South Division. They have a lot of young talent. But the Titans lack the pedigree and experience to beat an elite team. I see the Seahawks, with their defense dominant as ever, hanging around to get the victory. The Seahawks know how to win. Tennessee isn't at that stage yet. The Seahawks should have had two additional touchdowns against the 49ers last week, but C.J. Prossie and Tanner McEvoy each couldn't hold on to touchdown passes that were on the money. Russell Wilson is better than ever and the Seahawks may have found their most effective running back with Chris Carson rushing for 93 yards on 20 carries against the 49ers. Thomas Rawls should also be more effective in his second game since returning from a high ankle sprain. The Titans could be without their lead running back, DeMarco Murray, and good-looking rookie wide receiver, Corey Davis. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries.
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09-24-17 | Browns v. Colts +1 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 130 h 54 m | Show | |
The Colts are home, have the better skill position players and I like their quarterback better. The Browns have lost their last 14 road games. Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer has been sacked 10 times and picked off four times in six quarters. He'll be without his top receiver, injured Corey Coleman. The Colts acquired second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett from the Patriots on Sept. 2. Brissett had only seven practices before starting this past Sunday against the Cardinals. He nearly led the Colts to an upset win against the Cardinals with Indy losing in overtime. Brissett has excellent mobility and a big arm. He helped lead the Patriots to an easy win against the Texans, a much stronger defensive team than the Browns, last season. The Colts have more skill position weapons for Brissett than the Browns do for Kizer, including elite wideout T.Y. Hilton. The Browns will be without Myles Garrett and possibly star linebacker Jamie Collins, who is in the league's concussiohn protocol.
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09-24-17 | Giants +6.5 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
It's a mistake to underestimate the Giants even though they are 0-2 and coming off a dreadful Monday night home loss to the Eagles. Clearly, the Giants have problems offensively. Eli Manning is past his prime and is behind a terrible offensive line without a good running back. But the Giants have an upper tier defense. The Giants didn't win 11 games by fluke last season. They are in desperation mode at 0-2 and are a nice value play here as previous to Monday night they were in the plus 3 1/2 range in early-look ahead lines. Odell Beckham Jr. is the healthiest he's been all season. The Giants' pass-first offense is going against a weak Eagles secondary made weaker by an injury to their best cornerback, Ronald Darby. Beckham should have a big game against Eagles cornerbacks Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas. This is a perfect example of an inflated line due to an overreaction of the Monday night game.
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 127 h 44 m | Show |
Forget perception. These two teams aren't that far apart. Baltimore hasn't made the playoffs the past two seasons. The Ravens have a below average offense made worse by several key injuries. The Jaguars are better coached now and an ascending team with plenty of defensive talent. There's also another major factor here: This game is at Wembley Stadium in London. Jacksonville is trying to establish London as a second home base. The Jaguars have played the last five years in London, winning the past two times. Baltimore has never played an overseas game. Anyone who has flown overseas can tell you how much a physical toll the time difference makes. There's also a mental focus. The Ravens are riding high at 2-0 and have arch-rival Pittsburgh on deck next week. This is a flat spot for them. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a foul mood after laying an egg at home against the Titans this past Sunday. The Jaguars know they can play well against this opponent having defeated the Ravens on the road in 2015. They nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore last season losing 19-17 on a 54-yard field goal with 1:04 left. Blake Bortles is more game manager these days with heavy duty rookie Leonard Fournette to keep defenses honest. Joe Flacco isn't 100 percent after missing August recovering from a herniated disc in his back. He's alerady lost his most reliable running back, Danny Woodhead, and top offensive lineman, Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda, to injuries.
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 128 h 14 m | Show |
Maybe the Packers will finish as the best team in the NFC, but right now the Packers defense isn't ready for Atlanta. Green Bay's defense showed improvement in Week 1. That was at home, though, against Seattle, which has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Now the Packers go on turf to take on the Falcons playing their first regular-season game in their new $1.5 billion dollar stadium. The last time these two teams got together was in the NFC championship game, also in Atlanta. The final was Atlanta 44, Green Bay 21. The score wasn't even that close. The Falcons bolted to a 31-0 lead and coasted. The Falcons also beat the Packers during the regular season in Atlanta last year. Matt Ryan threw for a combined 680 yards in those two contests versus the Packers, while accounting for eight touchdowns. Ryan has his main weapons back. The Packers' young and inexperienced secondary isn't nearly ready for this kind of early road test. Look for Julio Jones to have a monster game. Defensive guru Dan Quinn has Atlanta's defense on the upswing. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be able to keep up with Ryan. The Packers' offensive line isn't as good as it was last season. They are going to have a great degree of difficult playing in this setting especially if star right tackle Bryan Bulaga remains out with an ankle injury.
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09-17-17 | 49ers v. Seahawks -13.5 | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 8 m | Show | |
The Seahawks have dominated the 49ers at home winning the past six times. They've beaten San Francisco by 19 and 16 points, respectively, the past two years. Seattle has the top defense in the NFL. All of the Seahawks' defensive studs are back and run-stuffer Sheldon Richardson has been added. The 49ers' work-in-progress offense isn't ready for this caliber of defense, especially in the toughest outdoor road venue. San Francisco could only manage three points and 217 yards of offense at home against Carolina this past Sunday. Russell Wilson has the best set of receivers he's ever had. Wilson is primed for a huge year. The 49ers defense took a huge loss when promising rookie linebacker Reuben Foster suffered a high ankle sprain this past Sunday. The Seahawks are in a foul mood after losing to the Packers opening week. They'll take their frustrations out on the hapless 49ers here.
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
San Diego is in bounce-back mode after putting a league-high 21 players on the injured reserve last season. Philip Rivers is a stud quarterback and the Chargers have the pass rushers with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and a good secondary to keep the Broncos' offense in check. Trevor Siemian can't compare to Rivers. He's coming off a 3-5 record during the past eight games where he had a 10-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Siemian is lucky he doesn't have any real competition in Denver because he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Denver averaged a mediocre 22.2 points in 2015. That average sank to 20.8 last season when the Broncos also finished 27th in total offense. Their offense doesn't look any better this season unless Jamaal Charles can somehow recapture his magic. The Chargers have more firepower with Melvin Gordon, a healthy Keenan Allen and emerging tight end Hunter Henry not to mention the still reliable Antonio Gates. Denver's defense remains top tier, but it did lose T.J. Ward.
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 1090 h 53 m | Show |
The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively. The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard. A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up. |
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09-10-17 | Ravens v. Bengals -2.5 | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 460 h 55 m | Show | |
The Bengals are back to being a legitimate playoff contender, while the Ravens are likely to keep regressing due to a poor offense. Baltimore's defense isn't nearly the dominant force of years past. The Ravens don't have enough pieces to keep up with all of Cincinnati's skill position talent. A.J. Green always has been a Ravens-killer while being a consensus top-five wide receiver. Tight end Tyler Eifert is healthy, unlike last year. He's a premier tight end red zone threat. Added to this mix are good looking running back Joe Mixon and speedster rookie wide receiver John Ross. The best case scenario for the Ravens would be if Joe Flacco started instead of Ryan Mallet, who is one of the worst backup QB's in the league. Flacco is expected to start, but he'll be extremely rusty having not played during preseason recovering from knee surgery and a bad back. The Ravens' offensive line is in flux due to injuries and the unexpected retirement of center Urschel. Kenneth Dixon, probably the team's best runner, is out with injury as is tight end Dennis Pitta. There just isn't any way the Ravens can keep up with the Bengals' talent-laced skill position players. Then there is the road factor. This is the first time Cincinnati is opening at home since 2009. The Bengals have dominated this series winning seven of the last 10, including going 5-0 at home. The Ravens have lost at Cincinnati by an average of 12 1/2-points the past two seasons - and the gap seems wider this year. Baltimore is far less intimidating on the road. That's reflected in a 4-13 regular-season away mark. The Ravens have lost their past six road games. Their lone road victories last season occurred against the Browns and Jaguars. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -8.5 | Top | 42-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 51 m | Show |
There's a double-digit class difference here especially with the Patriots playing at home where they have covered 75 percent of their past 26 games. The Chiefs overachieved to finish 12-4 last season. They ranked 13th in points scored and 20th in yards gained. They also gave up the eighth-most yards. The Chiefs achieved their sterling record by big plays from special teams and a league-best plus 16 turnover ratio. The Patriots aren't going to make mistakes, or get beat on special teams. No team is better coached than New England. New England won the Super Bowl and looks even better on paper this season. Even losing Julian Edelman, Tom Brady still has a wide assortment of weapons, including deep threat Brandin Cooks, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and four verstailte running backs. The Chiefs can't come close to matching that firepower. The Patriots upgraded their secondary, too, signing cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Alex Smith threw for more than 300 yards just once in 16 games last season. He's done that just four times in his last 65 games. So the Chiefs are not a good backdoor type team. Kansas City had a chaotic off-season, too. There were surprising upper management changes with general manager John Dorsey getting fired. Former stalwarts Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and nose tackle Dontari Poe all moved on. Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston have to prove they are completely healthy.
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 139 h 1 m | Show |
As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 162 h 36 m | Show |
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game. |
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01-15-17 | Packers +4 v. Cowboys | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 150 h 57 m | Show | |
Even if Jordy Nelson can't play, I still like the Packers here. Green Bay is riding a lot of momentum with a seven-game winning streak, has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing at a high level and Dallas lacks playoff experience and could be rusty. Only once in the last six years have the Cowboys made the postseason. That was two seasons ago and they lost to the Packers at Lambeau Field. This game is in Dallas, but it's a far better bargain to get this many points because of that. Dallas hasn't been played a really meaningful game in three weeks. The Cowboys closed 1-5 ATS with three of their last four victories coming by six, two and five points. They lack Green Bay's big-game, playoff experience. Their quarterback is a rookie. Aaron Rodgers has been a monster down the stretch with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions during the last seven weeks. This total should be 21-0, but Davante Adams dropped two touchdown passes versus the Bears. Green Bay is averaging 35 points during its last five games. They've shredded three elite defenses - the Vikings, Seahawks and Giants - during this span. Those three teams all rank in the top five in either fewest yards or fewest points allowed. Dallas' defense isn't nearly as good as those teams. Green Bay swept the Giants this season, a team Dallas went 0-2 against. Despite a patchwork secondary, the Packers held in check and frustrated Odell Beckham Jr. They can do the same to Dez Bryant. The Packers have a wily well-respected defensive coordinator in Dom Capers and three guys who can rush the passer - a now healthy Clay Matthews, a still effective Julius Peppers and blossoming star Nick Perry. The Cowboys' best offensive lineman, left tackle Tyron Smith, is dealing with an MCI sprain. The Packers were five-point home favorites when they hosted the Cowboys in mid-October. Green Bay wasn't play well then and the Cowboys were. Now look at the spread. The Packers are peaking and the youthful Cowboys have the weight of the world on their shoulders.
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01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Simply put this is too many points for the Patriots to lay against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has held their last seven foes to 18.1 points per game. Tom Brady remains an upper elite quarterback. But he doesn't have his most potent weapon, injured Rob Gronkowski, and is facing the No. 2 ranked pass defense. The Texans posted their 18.1 average during the home stretch facing upper tier quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers on the road and Andrew Luck on the road. Jadeveon Clowney finally lived up to his vast potential helped make up for the loss J.J. Watt. He provides a strong pass rush along with Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a number of former Patriots players and coaches, including still effective nose guard Vince Wilfork and coach Bill O'Brien. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a seven-game win streak. The only playoff team, though, they played during this span was the Dolphins. It's not exactly sharpening your skills beating the 49ers, Jets twice and, Rams during the last seven weeks of the regular season. In terms of facing offensive production, the Patriots were ranked last by Football Outsiders. The Patriots have built their fancy defensive numbers based in large part by playing the easiest schedule of offensive opponents. So this is taking more than two touchdowns with a clear superior defense, a spread range that rarely happens in that instance. It's fair to point out that Houston is another weak offense that New England draws. True. The Patriots blanked the Texans, 27-0, in early September at home with a third-string rookie quarterback. Some of that fell on O'Brien, who coached a horrendous game playing not to lose rather than to win. O'Brien is smart enough to have learned from his mistake. The Texans picked up some needed confidence in Brock Osweiler during their 27-14 playoff victory against Oakland last week. Osweiler has proven serviceable the past couple of games since regaining his starting job. He has the best wide receiver on the field in DeAndre Hopkins and an above runner in Lamar Miller. So the Texans have weapons. Bill Belichick's goal isn't to punish his former assistant O'Brien by running up a score. He just wants to get his Patriots quickly out of this game with a victory. Belichick isn't interested in style points. Only twice in their last 11 playoff games, have the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -9.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 145 h 31 m | Show |
Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins It would be nice to get some line value, but that's not realistic in the NFL especially in the playoffs. Anyways, I don't see how the Dolphins can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in January. I trust the Steelers enough to win by double-digits. The Dolphins have many negatives. The Steelers have many positives. Miami's negatives: Traveling into cold weather. A career backup quarterback in Matt Moore. Even if Ryan Tannehill somehow gets clearance, his mobility will be restricted and he'll be rusty. The Dolphins are 10-6, but minus 17 in scoring differential. The Dolphins were blown out by the Patriots and Ravens. They gave up a staggering 589 yards to the Bills. They barely were able to squeak past one-win Cleveland and two-win San Francisco in home games. The Dolphins are without two of their best players, center Mike Pouncey and safety Rashad Jones. They also have other injuries at linebackers and cornerback. Playoff inexperience. The Dolphins last made the postseason in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2000. Pittsburgh's positives: The Steelers are home, their superstars are rested and the team is peaking on a seven-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger plays far better at home. Pittsburgh is 16-4 with Roethlisberger under center the last three years at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season is 19-to-5. Le'Veon Bell is one of the three-best running backs in the NFL. He should be in line for a huge game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in run defense and are down several linebackers. The Dolphins also don't have a cornerback who can come close to matching up against Antonio Brown. The only home games Pittsburgh has lost this season were to the Patriots without Roethlisberger and to the Cowboys. The Dolphins are far, far below their teams. |
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01-01-17 | Packers -3 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 107 h 57 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Packers are peaking while the Lions are sinking. Green Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and has the confidence of already beating Detroit this season and of having made the playoffs the past seven seasons. Detroit has lost two in a row and has a history of choking. Jordy Nelson has regained his pre-knee surgery star status and it's sparked the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers still is in his prime, has found a reliable ground option in Ty Montgomery and has the best pass-protecting offensive line in football. The Lions were torched this past Monday by the Cowboys giving up 42 points. Detroit has just 14 takeaways and 25 sacks on the season. Their secondary is beat-up likely to be without their top cornerback, Darius Slay, and nickel back. They are extremely weak at three of the defensive backfield spots. Slay is dealing with a hamstring injury, one of the worst injuries a cornerback can have. He'll be a liability if he plays because he's not close to 100 percent. The Packers are going to get their share of points here. The key question is can the Lions keep up with their mediocre offense. Detroit lacks Green Bay's offensive personnel. Detroit's offensive line is merely average and its running backs are below par. The Lions have no star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford has made the Lions offense go as he's proven he's an above average quarterback and not just an inconsistent gunslinger who sometimes flashes. However, Stafford has been playing the last couple of weeks with a dislocation and torn ligaments in the middle fingers of his passing hand. This has forced him to play with a glove on his passing hand and he hasn't been effective because of it throwing more wobbly passes rather than tight spirals. In the last two games, Stafford's completion percentage has been 61.5 percent and 56.5 percent when on the season his percentage is 65.5. Stafford needs to have a high completion percentage because the Lions offense has been geared on short passes ever since the middle of last season when they made a change in offensive coordinators going to Jim Bob Cooter.
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01-01-17 | Saints +7 v. Falcons | 32-38 | Win | 100 | 136 h 13 m | Show | |
Matt Ryan is in the MVP discussion and the Falcons are going to score the most points in franchise history. But the Saints also are going to get their points here - if not score more than Atlanta. As outstanding as Ryan has been this season, he's trumped by Drew Brees, who has thrown for more yards and touchdown passes than Ryan. The Saints offense is operating at peak efficiency scoring on 14 of their last 22 possession during their last two games against respectable defenses the Buccaneers and Cardinals. New Orleans has scored 79 points during the last two weeks. New Orleans is improved on defense, too. The Saints have held their last 12 opponents to 120 yards or less rushing. A return to health of underrated Sheldon Rankins and Dannell Ellerbee have upgraded their defense. This is a long-time rivalry. So the Saints aren't going to lack motivation in what could be the final time Sean Payton and Brees are together. New Orleans has covered eight of its last nine road games. Atlanta hasn't been dominant at home with a 4-3 mark and losing spread mark. The Saints have won in five of their last seven visits to Georgia Dome.
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01-01-17 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Rams | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
The Cardinals still have pride playing for Bruce Arians. They hold big matchup edges on the Rams and I expect them to show up against the Rams, who have yet to cover a spread since Jared Goff became quarterback. The Cardinals are a top heavy blitzing team. Goff has yet to display good pocket presence. I see him skittish in the pocket here.
The Rams just want this season to end. Carson Palmer has been playing better and David Johnson is a monster who can set a bunch of records here. LA has allowed 16 touchdown passes in their last six games. The Rams are down their best wideout, Kenny Britt. |
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01-01-17 | Raiders +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 26 m | Show |
The line has been over adjusted due to Derek Carr's injury. The Raiders are the superior team and have great incentive to win the division. The Broncos are out of playoff contention, quite a letdown for the defending Super Bowl champions. Carr was having an MVP season. Matt McGloin is a wild card. However, the Raiders still have an above average offensive line, good running backs and one of the better wide receiving tandems in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Broncos can't generate any offense. Their running attack is feeble and now it appears they will be starting Paxton Lynch, which kills their passing game. I would take McGloin -sight unseen - above the inexperienced Lynch. The Raiders are plus 18 in turnover ratio. The Raiders outrushed the Broncos, 218-33, in winning the first meeting, 30-20, in Week 9. Denver's ground game is just as bad. Denver's defense still is very good, but has lost its dominance. The Raiders have proven themselves as road warriors going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 away games. They have a good spread history at Denver, too, going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits.
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01-01-17 | Seahawks -9.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -105 | 138 h 4 m | Show |
Decimated San Francisco has lost 18 players for the season, including Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is going to have problems trying to figure out Seattle's defense, which does a great job of containing dual-threat quarterbacks, and doesn't have any reliable weapons anymore with Hyde getting hurt last week. The 49ers have covered just three of their last 14 games. Their defense is worn down from multiple injuries and being on the field way too much. A healthy Russell Wilson can take advantage. Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, but the 49ers are one defense they can control. The Seahawks will be fired up, too, after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home to the Cardinals. Pete Carroll certainly doesn't want to enter the playoffs off two straight poor performances and with playoff positioning still at stake. The 49ers pulled out their second win of the season this past Saturday against the Rams. They're totally outmatched here.
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
These teams just met four weeks ago and the Broncos outgained the Chiefs, 464-273. The Chiefs, though, scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left to force in overtime. The Broncos tried a long field goal in overtime that missed and the Chiefs took advantage of the good field position to kick a game-winning field goal with two seconds left. That was in Denver. But the Chiefs have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Trevor Siemian has thrown for 984 yards and four touchdowns with one interception during his last three games. Alex Smith has thrown a mere 12 touchdowns passes for the season. Siemian is the more dangerous quarterback and Denver has the superior wide receivers. The Broncos still have their Super Bowl caliber defense. The Broncos have surrendered only 10 touchdown passes and lead the AFC with 40 sacks, with Von Miller accounting for 13 1/2 sacks. Denver is No. 1 in pass defense, No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points given up. The Chiefs yield the fifth-most yards per game. Their defense is minus injured star linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have the record they have because they have scored seven touchdowns via their defense or special teams while not giving up any in those areas. While the Chiefs deserve credit for being opportunistic they also are lucky. It's far from a given that the Chiefs will score a non-offensive touchdown. They aren't good enough to cover this margin without that type of occurrence.
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -5.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
The Ravens caught the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was just back from his knee injury. Roethlisberger was rusty and Baltimore won, 21-14, in Week 9. Things are much different now. Roethlisberger is healthy and plays much better at Heinz Field where he's thrown 17 touchdown passes with just three interceptions. The Ravens have a strong run defense, but their secondary is vulnerable especially with top cornerback Jimmy Smith not likely to play. If the Ravens drop safeties into coverage then Le'Veon Bell is primed for a big game. If the Ravens key on Bell than Roethlisberger gets turned loose. Antonio Brown should prove highly dangerous here especially if Smith is out as expected. The Ravens lack a consistent ground attack and Joe Flacco is enduring one of his worst seasons. He's been especially brutal on the road with a 5-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers have held six of their last seven opponents to under 250 yards through the air. Their defense has gotten healthy and stepped up. The Steelers not only play much better at home, but they have proven strong in December covering 12 of the last 14 times.
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12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 83 h 24 m | Show | |
The Titans have been a nice story this season. Definite improvement is there. But the oddsmaker has gotten ahead of things by making the Titans this big of a road favorite. Tennessee has a losing spread mark when laying points. The Titans have won three in a row - by a combined 11 points. They are off huge victories against the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos and the Chiefs on the road last week winning on a 53-yard field goal at the gun. The Titans are tied with Houston for the AFC South Division lead. The Titans host the Texans next week. So it's difficult to trust the young Titans, who haven't been in this kind of letdown spot before, to cover more than a field goal on the road in an obvious flat spot. The key here is accessing Jacksonville. The Jaguars average 18.7 points a game, which ranks 27th. However, the Jaguars have the fourth-best pass defense in the league and give up the seventh-fewest yards. Their defense is sneaky good. The Jaguars' talent level is far superior to their 2-12 record. Jacksonville has lost seven times by one touchdown or less. Close losses and bad coaching have killed the Jaguars. Interim coach Doug Marrone can't help but be an improvement on Gus Bradley, who was fired following Sunday's one-point road loss to the Texans. Bradley was the worst coach in the NFL in my view. The Jaguars are 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS the past five times hosting the Titans. Yes, the Titans are the best they've been in at least five years, but they are far from dominant with huge weaknesses in the secondary and wide receiver. Jacksonville should be fired up for their new coach in their final home game of the season playing a division foe that whipped them. 36-22, back in Week 8.
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12-18-16 | Raiders -2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
Not only does Oakland hold matchup edges with San Diego all but decimated with injuries, but the Raiders are on extra time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Chargers may have the weakest home field in the league. Mike McCoy isn't likely to return as coach and the team probably is going to leave San Diego. There could be as many Oakland fans here as San Diego spectators. Philip Rivers has lost his top weapons with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead out. The Chargers are down to fifth-string undrafted rookie running back Kenneth Farrow as their main ball carrier. Rivers has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 11 times in his last four games as he presses trying to do much to compensate for his team's numerous deficiencies. Derek Carr had problems with an injured finger in Kansas City's cold weather during Oakland's last game. Now, with extra rest and 10 days to heal, Carr should be back to normal. Oakland's offense can take advantage of a Chargers defense that is down two of their run stuffers and two key cornerbacks. San Diego has just six sacks in its last six games. The Raiders have proven themselves on the road under much harsher conditions going 5-1 SU and ATS. Now the Raiders get to play in their normal time zone against a foe they have dominated recently winning the past three times. The Raiders beat the Chargers, 37-29, at San Diego last season after building up a 37-6 lead. The Raiders are much better this season.
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12-18-16 | Titans +5.5 v. Chiefs | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a bad matchup for Kansas City made worse by cold weather conditions. The Titans have the necessary ground attack to take advantage of the Chiefs' mediocre run defense made far more ineffective by star linebacker Derrick Johnson being out. Tennessee owns edges at running back, quarterback and offensive line. Kansas City may be the luckiest team in the NFL. The Chiefs are 10-3 despite being outgained by an average of nearly 90 yards during their last six games. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Kansas City has scored either a defensive touchdown or special teams touchdown in four of its last five games. The Chiefs are a plus 11 in takeaways/giveaways. They need turnovers to win. But Titans rising star quarterback Marcus Mariota hasn't committed a turnover in his last three games while throwing for multiple touchdown in eight of his last nine games. The Titans are expected to get back their best defensive player in lineman Jurrell Casey. Tennessee's weakness is a vulnerable secondary. But Alex Smith's strength isn't as a downfield passer. Smith isn't helped either by freezing weather. This is going to come down to who runs the ball better and I'll take DeMarco Murray and Mariota plus these points against Spencer Ware and Alex Smith.
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12-18-16 | Packers -5.5 v. Bears | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 29 m | Show | |
Frightful weather isn't enough to stop the Packers from covering against the Bears. Chicago is just too beat-up and inexperienced at quarterback with Matt Barkley to stay with the Packers, who are starting to peak. Barkley is a Southern California kid who isn't accustomed to playing in weather that will have a wind chill factor of below zero. He doesn't have the skill level or weapons to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. The Bears do get Alshon Jeffery back from suspension. Barkley and Jeffery have never worked together, though. The Packers' offensive line and defense have gotten healthier coinciding with their three-game winning and covering streak against the Eagles, Texans and Seahawks. Since Week 11, the Packers haven't allowed more than 13 points in a game. The Bears are missing six starters on defense because of injuries and suspensions. They only have 10 takeaways, which ranks 30th. Green Bay has won six in a row at Soldier Field beating Bears teams much better than this current edition.
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12-18-16 | Browns +10 v. Bills | 13-33 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 28 m | Show | |
The Bills are playing too bad and are too dysfunctional to be laying double-digits to any opponent. Buffalo is 2-5 in its last seven games and just playing the string out after missing the playoffs for an NFL-high 17th consecutive season. Rex Ryan and quarterback Tyrod Taylor both are likely out the door following the season. The Browns desperately want to avoid a winless season. They are not outclassed in this matchup. The Bills have surrendered 21 or more points in six of their last seven games. Robert Griffin III is the Browns' best quarterback and he won't be rusty after playing last week. Griffin has some decent weapons, too, with Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman, Gary Barnridge, Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell, who has looked his best when Griffin has been the quarterback due to Griffin's dual threat capability. The Bills could be without Kyle Williams, one of their best defensive players and a key run defender.
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12-11-16 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
Dallas has been maybe the major success story of the NFL season so far. The public loves them betting them past a field goal favorite on the road against a division rival that has won six of its last seven games. New York is 5-1 at home. The Giants are the only team to beat Dallas. New York held the Cowboys to 19 points in that opening week win. The Giants' defense has gotten better since then. Only three teams have surrendered fewer touchdown passes than the Giants. Not once have the Giants yielded more than 24 points during their last nine games. Dallas hasn't lost since that opening week defeat. But the Cowboys have been in four close games the past four weeks. They've been outgained in three of those contests. Both teams play ball control. The Cowboys by running. The Giants by throwing short passes. The Giants just activated their best-catching running back, Shane Vereen. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 30's with snow flurries. This has all the makings of another back-and-forth matchup likely decided in the final minute. So I'm happy to take this many points.
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12-11-16 | Vikings -3 v. Jaguars | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 36 h 2 m | Show | |
The Vikings are the fresher team having played last Thursday and have playoff incentive something the Jaguars lack. |
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12-11-16 | Redskins +1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 111 h 50 m | Show |
Washington is clearly the superior team. The Redskins showed that in the team's first meeting back in Week 6 when they outgained the Eagles, 493-239. Washington won 27-20 and the score should not have been that close but the Eagles got two non-offensive touchdowns. Since then the Eagles have gotten worse. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. Philadelphia has allowed 26 or more points in five of its last six games. The Eagles have a terrible secondary and a pass rush that has only managed six sacks in the last six games. Washington has a much better secondary and an explosive offense - which ranks No. 2 in yardage and passing yards - that can take advantage of Philadelphia's many defensive shortcoming. It's a plus if star tight end Jordan Reed plays, but the Redskins have many other receiving weapons, including DeSean Jackson, underrated Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis. The Redskins have won and covered the past four in the series.
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 44 h 58 m | Show |
Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. |