Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders +3 | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over Miami. The Dolphins upset division rival New England, 22-12, as a 1-point home dog last week. And they've now been installed as a road favorite at Las Vegas. We will go against Miami on Saturday night, as non-division road favorites have covered just 35.2% over the last 40 years if they were off an upset win at home over a division rival. Even worse: Miami has covered just 9 of 37 games, itself, off an upset win the previous week against a division foe, including 1-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite of more than 2 points. Take the Raiders + the points as a home underdog. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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12-26-20 | Pacers v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 125-106 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Indiana. The Pacers won by 14, 114-107, vs. the New York Knicks on Wednesday, while Chicago was blown out by 20, 124-104, by the Atlanta Hawks. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade Chicago off that dismal performance. But consider that NBA teams off a loss by 20+ points in their season opener have covered 70% since 1990 when not getting more than 7 points in Game 2. Even better: mid-priced NBA road favorites of -4 to -8.5 points have covered just 10 of 35 off a win in their season opener at home, including 1-11 ATS vs. division rivals. Take Chicago + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-20 | Magic v. Wizards -2 | Top | 130-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Orlando. The Magic upset Miami, at home, 113-107, on Wednesday, while Washington lost by an identical score to the 76ers, but covered the spread as a 7-point road underdog. The silver lining for the Wizards is that NBA teams that lost, but covered the spread in their season opener, have proceeded to cover 67.5% in Game 2 since 2008, including 75% when not favored by 3+ points. Meanwhile, the Magic have covered just 7 of 23 off an upset home win. and they're also 13-21-1 ATS their last 35 vs. Washington. Lay the points. |
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12-26-20 | Cavs v. Pistons -2 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Pistons lost by 10, 111-101, at Minnesota, on Wednesday, while the Cavaliers won their home opener, 121-114, against Charlotte. But the Cavs were the Eastern Conference's worst team last season, with a 19-46 record. And NBA teams playing their home opener, like Detroit, have cashed 67% since 1991 if they were off a double-digit loss, and were playing an opponent off a win in its home opener, if that opponent had a worse record the previous season. Take Detroit minus the points. |
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12-26-20 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 122-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks were a losing team last season, but opened their 2020-21 campaign with a road win at Chicago. They will now play the Grizzlies who lost their season opener at home, 131-119, on Wednesday to the Spurs. We'll take Memphis at home, as NBA teams have cashed 77% at home since 1991 off a loss in their home opener, if their opponent was off a SU win, and our home team owned a better record the previous season. Additionally, the Hawks are a poor 11-24 ATS after winning on the road, if the Hawks weren't getting 9+ points in their current game. Take Memphis on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky +4 v. Georgia State | Top | 21-39 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, in the LendingTree Bowl, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Georgia State. This is another "offense vs defense" matchup in the Bowls. The Panthers are the offensive-minded team, as they score 32.7 ppg (against foes that give up 27.7), while the Hilltoppers are the defensive-minded squad, as they give up just 18 ppg (against foes that score 24.1 ppg). And, as faithful followers know, in College Football, I will take the points with the better defensive team more often than not. Indeed, post-season favorites of 5 or less points, with defenses that give up more than 3 points than their opponent's defense, have gone 6-29 ATS. The Hilltoppers come into this game off back to back double-digit blowout wins against Florida International and Charlotte. And the Hilltoppers are 24-11 ATS off back to back wins, including 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +6 points. Take Western Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UTSA +14 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Cajuns come into this game off an upset road win at Appalachian State, and have been installed as a two-touchdown favorite vs. the Roadrunners in this First Responder Bowl game in Dallas, Texas. But off that upset victory, we will fade the Cajuns on Saturday afternoon. Indeed, favorites of more than 9 points off a road win have gone 2-16 ATS away from home in a bowl game. That doesn't bode well for Louisiana on Saturday. Nor does the fact that it's covered just 2 of 8 (and just 9 of 25) as favorites of more than 13 points. Finally, Sun Belt Conference teams are a horrid 15-38 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) points vs. non-conference foes. Take the Roadrunners + the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 47-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'under' the total. Last week, the Buccaneers spotted the Atlanta Falcons 17 points, and trailed 17-0 at the half, before storming back in the 2nd half for a 31-27 victory. They're now installed as a double-digit favorite at Detroit, which lost 46-25 at Tennessee last Sunday. Both of these teams have played their games predominantly over the total this season. Detroit has gone 9-5 'over,' while Tampa has gone 8-6 'over.' The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here. But be careful, as NFL games between two teams whose previous games both totaled 58+ points have also gone 'under' the total 57% over the last 41 years. The 'under' also falls into 102-47, 107-76 and 267-211 Totals systems of mine. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the Lions and Bucs 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 121-108 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the LA Clippers. The Clips opened their season with a "road" win against the Lakers, while Denver lost at home to the Sacramento Kings. But over the last 31 years, NBA home teams have covered 67% in Game 2, if they lost at home in their season opener, and their opponent was off an upset road win. Moreover, the Clippers are a poor 7-20 ATS on the non-division road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points, if they were off a SU win. Take Denver to bounce back on Christmas, and blow out the Clippers. Good luck, a always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-20 | Warriors v. Bucks -10 | 99-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Golden State. Both of these teams lost their season openers. Golden State was blown out by Brooklyn on Tuesday, while the Bucks fell at the buzzer to Boston by a single point. Since his arrival in Milwaukee, coach Mike Budenholzer's men have been exceptional in the regular season when coming off a straight-up loss. They're 32-5 SU and 27-10 ATS, including 8-1 ATS at home when not laying more than 11 points. Take Milwaukee minus the points. |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Buffalo. Both of these teams come into this Christmas Day game off upset losses. Marshall was defeated, 22-13, by UAB, as a 4.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Bulls were 5-0, and favored by double-digits in the Mid-American Conference championship game last weekend, but fell by 10 points to Ball State, 38-28. Unfortunately for the Bulls, NCAA Bowl favorites generally don't bounce back from Conference Championship game blowout losses, as they're 12-28 ATS off a double-digit loss in their Conference Title game. Even worse: Buffalo's favored in this game, even though its defense rates poorer than Marshall's. The Bulls have given up 23.8 ppg (against foes that average 27.7). And while that's really good, Marshall's has been much better, as it's only given up 12.6 ppg (against foes that average 21 ppg). We'll grab the points with the Herd, as NCAA Bowl teams -- not favored by more than 10 points -- have cashed 65 of 95 if their defense gave up less than 14.7 ppg, and their defense also gave up at least 5.83 ppg less than their opponent's. Even better: if our 'play-on' team (here, Marshall) failed to cover its previous game by more than 8 points, then our 65-30 ATS angle zooms to 14-1 ATS! Finally, dating back 15 years, Mid-American Conference teams have gone 3-15 SU and 5-12-1 ATS vs. Conference USA foes in the Bowls, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss. Take Marshall + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-20 | Pelicans v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the New Orleans Pelicans. On Wednesday, Stan Van Gundy's Pelicans upset Toronto to kick off their 2020-21 campaign, while Miami lost as a road favorite against the Orlando Magic. We'll play on the Heat on Thursday, as they've gone 43-23 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against an opponent off an upset win. Lay the points. |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +10 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Houston. For the season, the Cougars had a losing record (3-4), a negative scoring margin (-0.28), a negative ATS record (3-4 ATS), and a negative point spread differential (-4.14). Yet they find themselves hefty favorites this afternoon vs. the Rainbow Warriors. We will fade Houston, as Bowl favorites (or PK), with a negative scoring margin, and a point spread differential of -1.75 (or worse) have covered a paltry 26.3% over the last 41 seasons. Even worse: Houston's defense surrenders north of 32.5 ppg. Unfortunately, Bowl favorites (or PK) with a defense that gives up more than 31.5 ppg have gone 0-17 ATS their last 17. Take Hawaii + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-20 | San Jose State +21 v. Utah State | Top | 52-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Utah State. In our current COVID-19 environment, many conferences have adapted by scheduling back-to-back games between the same teams, on the same court. So, after the Aggies blew out the Spartans, 107-62, here on Monday night, they'll face off again today. And we'll take the Spartans + the double-digits tonight, as teams playing with revenge from a 40-point loss earlier in the season are 89-64-4 ATS their last 157. And Mountain West Conference underdogs of more than 13 points have gone 109-61 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. Take the Spartans + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-20 | UMKC v. St. Louis -23.5 | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Kansas City. After going 6-0 SU/ATS to start the season (all six games were at home), the Billikens were upset on the road by Minnesota, 90-82, on Sunday. But St. Louis is back home tonight. And it has always been a strong home team, not just to start this season. Indeed, the Billikens are 41-19-1 ATS their last 61 at home, and 217-164-4 ATS their last 385. Additionally, the Kangaroos have covered just 38% as underdogs over the last 30 seasons off back to back wins. Take St. Louis. |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Memphis. The Owls are giving up just 16.5 points per game (against oppoents that average 22.8), and have a much better defense than do the Tigers. Memphis surrenders 29.7 ppg (against foes that average 29.4). Last week, we played on Northwestern against Ohio State, and what I wrote then in my analysis also applies here. Basically, when wagering on post-season games, it's dangerous to give the much better defensive team a lot of points, as underdogs of 7+ points that surrender at least 7 less points than their opponent have covered 73% over the last 41 years. Florida Atlantic is 6-0 SU/ATS its last six post-season games, while Memphis is 1-7 straight-up and 0-8 ATS its last eight post-season games. Take the Owls as a big underdog this evening. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-20 | CS Bakersfield v. Pepperdine -7 | Top | 79-51 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Pepperdine Waves minus the points over Cal Bakersfield. The Waves were upset, 75-63, as a 2.5-point home favorite on Saturday by UCSB. But off that loss, we'll take the Waves to blow out the Roadrunners, as Pepperdine falls into a 64% "bounce-back" system of mine. Even better: over the last 20 seasons, the Waves have cashed 69% at home off a home upset loss, while the Roadrunners have covered just 20% vs. foes off an upset loss. Take Pepperdine minus the points. |
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12-22-20 | East Tennessee State v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over East Tennessee State. Nate Oats' men were upset here, at Coleman Coliseum, on Saturday by Western Kentucky. The Tide were favored by 4.5 points, but lost 73-71 on the heels of a goaltending call which provided the final margin of victory. But off that home loss, we'll lay the big number tonight with the Crimson Tide. Alabama's a fantastic 29-13 ATS off a home upset loss, while Southern Conference teams have covered just 38% vs. SEC teams off an upset loss. And Alabama also falls into a 63% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off an upset loss. Lay the points with Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-22-20 | NC-Greensboro -11.5 v. North Carolina A&T | Top | 86-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC Greensboro Spartans minus the points over NC A&T. The 3-8 Aggies have been installed as a double-digit underdog this evening against their crosstown rivals in this 21st edition of the "Battle for the Boro." But they're a dismal 0-14 SU and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14 when getting 11 or more points. And the Aggies also were blown out by the Spartans last season, 83-50. Even worse for NC A&T: it may be without leading scorer (and the NCAA's top assist man last season), Kam Langley, tonight, as he's questionable to play. Regardless of Langley's availability, we're going to fade the Aggies, as they fall into a negative 42-97 ATS system of mine. Take the Spartans minus the points. |
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12-22-20 | Tenn-Martin v. Ole Miss -26 | Top | 43-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over Tennessee-Martin. After starting the season with 4 straight victories, the Rebels were upset, 65-62, at Dayton on Saturday. And it was the first time the Rebels gave up more than 58 points in a game. This afternoon, Ole Miss is back home at The Pavilion, where it will welcome a Skyhawks team which is also coming off its first loss of the season. Tennessee-Martin fell, 81-63, at Western Illinois, as the Leathernecks shot 50% for the game. Ole Miss is a solid 21-8 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) off an upset loss, while the Skyhawks are a horrid 5-21 ATS their last 26 (and 15-36 their last 51) as a road underdog, including 1-12 ATS when they owned a winning record. Lay the points. |
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12-21-20 | Murray State v. Austin Peay +3.5 | Top | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Austin Peay Governors + the points over Murray State. The Racers were favored by 3 points at home less than two weeks ago against Austin Peay, and won by 30, 87-57. By my math, the oddsmakers have made too much of an adjustment to set the point spread at roughly the same price on the road. And especially since Murray State is 4-0 at home, with an average margin of 40 ppg, but 0-2 on the road with a negative scoring margin of -10.5 ppg. The Governors also fall into a revenge system of mine which is 149-99 ATS. That angle plays on certain underdogs that have revenge from 20-point (or worse) defeats. Finally, Murray State is 0-7 ATS its last seven road games off a home win. Take Austin Peay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'over' the total. Both of these teams come into this Monday night game off a string of 4 unders in a row. The Steelers' last four games have averaged 36 ppg, while Cincinnati's last four have averaged just 32 ppg. Pittsburgh's problems have largely been on the offensive side of the ball, as they've not scored 20+ points in any of their last 3 games (after scoring 24+ in each of their first 10 games this season). The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here. But consider that NFL games have gone over the total 58% of the time over the last 41 seasons if both teams were riding an 'under' streak of at least four games. That bodes well for the 'OVER' tonight. As does the fact that the Steelers have sailed 'over' the total in 26 of 44 if they were on a 2-game (or worse) losing streak. Take the Monday Night game 'over' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-21-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Missouri State +1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Missouri State Bears minus the points over Arkansas-Little Rock. The Trojans upset Missouri State here last season, 67-66, as a 12.5-point road underdog. But you know what they say about 'paybacks!' And the Bears fall into a super 172-119 ATS revenge system of mine, as well as a 70-32 ATS system which plays on certain home teams, not favored by 3+ points, off back to back wins. Even better: the Trojans are a woeful 4-13 ATS when facing a revenge-minded non-conference foe. Take Missouri State. |
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12-21-20 | Gardner-Webb v. Florida State -20 | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Gardner-Webb. The Runnin' Bulldogs have lost all three of their road games this season, and now have the misfortune of playing the Seminoles, who just dropped their first game of the season -- as a 14.5-point home favorite -- to Central Florida. But I love FSU to rebound off that upset defeat, as it falls into a 70-37 ATS 'bounce-back' system of mine which plays on certain home favorites after upset losses. Additionally, ACC Conference teams have covered 62.6% as non-conference favorites of -20 (or more) points off a SU loss (and 76.4% ATS at home if they failed to cover by 10+ in their previous game). Take the Seminoles. |
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12-21-20 | South Carolina State v. Furman -31.5 | Top | 52-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Furman Paladins minus the points over South Carolina State. The Bulldogs are 0-9 SU this season (though they did cover their previous game at Presbyterian), and will be in for a tough task this afternoon in Greenville. And that's because Furman was upset by Winthrop on Saturday, 87-71, as a 2.5-point road favorite. That was also the 2nd straight loss for Furman (who were 25-7 last season), so Bob Richey's men will no doubt be happy to see the Bulldogs today so they can take out their frustration. Furman has excelled in favorite role, and especially when laying a big number, as it is 45-18 ATS when laying more than 8, including 37-10 ATS if Furman owned a winning record, and its opponent had a losing record (and, then, 10-0 ATS in that set if its opponent was off an ATS win). Take the Paladins minus the points. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas +21.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 28-56 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Appalachian State. This match-up pits Conference USA against the Sun Belt Conference. The 8-3 Mountaineers (from the Sun Belt) have been installed as a huge favorite over 4-5 North Texas in this Myrtle Beach Bowl game. But, as I've often written, it's treacherous to lay a lot of points in the Bowls. Indeed, underdogs of +16 or more points are now 14-4 ATS their last 18. Even worse for Appalachian State: .500 (or better) Sun Belt Conference teams are 2-18-1 ATS when favored against a non-conference foe, if its opponent is off a SU win. And, dating back to last season, Appalachian State is now 0-6 ATS its last six games played away from home. Take North Texas + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-21-20 | Jacksonville v. Kansas State -12 | Top | 46-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Jacksonville. The Wildcats have had an unusually poor start to their season, as they're 3-5, including a 31-point loss (100-69) to #2-ranked Baylor on Saturday. Their nadir, thus far, was of course their loss to Division II Fort Hays State. Tonight, they'll face off against the Jacksonville Dolphins, who are 6-3 on the season. We'll lay the points with K-State, as Big 12 Conference teams are 42-19 ATS as home favorites of more than 9 points after failing to cover the spread by 9+ in their previous game. And the Wildcats are also 8-0 SU and 6-0 ATS at home after giving up more than 95 points in their previous game. Lay it. |
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12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Cleveland Browns. Each of these two teams had its four-game win streak snapped last week. Cleveland fell at home, 47-42, to Baltimore, while the Giants also lost at home, 26-7, to Arizona. Both of these teams remain in contention for division titles: New York sits one game behind the 6-7 Football Team, while the Browns are two games behind the 11-2 Steelers. However, Cleveland's path to the playoffs, as a wild card entrant, is much more secure, as the Browns currently are tied for fifth place in the AFC. We'll take the points with the home underdog Giants, as NFL home dogs have cashed 61.1% of non-division games at Game 14 forward if they were off a SU/ATS loss. Even better: NFL home dogs have gone 69-42 ATS in the regular season if they were off a double-digit loss, but had won their four games previous to that defeat. And, finally, the Browns are 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites. Grab the points with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs v. Saints +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Kansas City. Last week, the Saints were upset on the road at Philly. But off that upset loss, I love New Orleans to bounce back against Kansas City on Sunday afternoon. Indeed, in the 2nd half of the season, winning teams have cashed 64% over the last 41 years off an upset loss. That's one reason I am going with New Orleans in an underdog role. Another is that the Saints, with Sean Payton as head coach, have gone 57-24-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including a perfect 10-0 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points. The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games. And defending Super Bowl champs are now 0-16 ATS their last 16 games as non-division road favorites vs. .550 (or better) foes, if the defending champs were off a SU win. Take New Orleans + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Philadelphia. The Cardinals bounced back off their 38-28 loss to the Los Angeles Rams by blowing out the NY Giants last Sunday, 26-7. In the process, the Cards improved to 7-6, and are still alive for a post-season berth. This weekend, they'll face another NFC East division foe, in Philadelphia. The Eagles pulled off a major upset last week when they stunned New Orleans, 24-21, as a 7.5-point home underdog. But off that big win, we will fade Philly this week. Indeed, NFL underdogs of +6 (or more) points off a home upset victory over a .636 (or better) opponent, as a 6.5-point (or bigger) underdog, have generally had letdowns the following week, as they've covered just 12 of 50 games since 1991. Even better: if their opponent comes into the game off a straight-up win, then our system zooms to 19-3-1 ATS. Take Arizona to blow out the Eagles. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals OVER 49.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia/Arizona game. The Cardinals' last four home games vs. non-division foes have gone 'over' the total, as have 29 of Philly's last 44 road games. It's true that the Eagles had played six straight 'unders' before going over the total in last week's 24-21 victory over New Orleans. But I consider that game a harbinger of things to come (at least, from an over/under perspective) as over the last 41 years, teams that finally go 'over' the total after 5+ unders, tend to go over the total a 2nd straight game more often than not. Additionally, the Eagles and Cardinals fall into a Totals system of mine that has cashed 67% since 1980. Take the Philadelphia/Arizona game OVER the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-20 | Marquette +3 v. Xavier | Top | 88-91 | Push | 0 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Marquette Golden Eagles + the points over Xavier. The Musketeers are undefeated after winning back to back upsets over crosstown rival Cincinnati, 77-69, and the Oklahoma Sooners, 99-77. Unfortunately, undefeated teams have covered just 36.6% since 1990 as a single-digit home favorite off an upset win by more than 10 points. Even worse, .850 (or better) teams, not favored by more than 13 points, have covered just 34.8% since 1990 at home off back to back upset wins. Marquette has won and covered the last four games in this series, and plays this afternoon's game off an upset loss at home to Seton Hall. And Marquette's a solid 43-27 ATS on the conference road off a SU loss when Marquette wasn't favored by more than 5 points. Take Marquette + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-20 | Lions v. Titans -8.5 | Top | 25-46 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Detroit. As of this writing, Lions QB Matthew Stafford is questionable to play on Sunday. Regardless, we're going to go against the Lions, and lay the points with Tennessee. Detroit's 5-8 on the season, while the Titans are 9-4. And the Lions were unable to win at home last week against their division rival, Green Bay. So, it's difficult to make a case for it on Sunday, in their final road game of the season, against a motivated, non-division foe. The technicals back this up, as losing NFL teams playing their final road game against winning, non-division foes, have covered just 35.5% over the last 41 years if they lost at home the previous week. Meanwhile, this will be Tennessee's final home game of the season. And, with two road games on deck, it takes on added significance for Tennessee, given it's currently tied atop the division with Indianapolis. Since 1980, winning NFL teams playing their final home game have cashed 63.2% when installed as a double-digit favorite vs. foes off a SU loss. Lay the points with the Titans. |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 41 | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Miami/New England game. The Patriots have played each of their last five games 'under' the total. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially given that the Patriots scored just three points last week, and that the last meeting between these clubs totaled just 32 points. But teams off 4+ unders have tended to go OVER the total when the line was 42 points or less (349-298 OVER). Moreover, New England has gone over in 11 of 13 after scoring less than 10 points. And division match-ups have gone over 282-231 when the first meeting of the season totaled less than 33 points. Take the Patriots and Dolphins to go OVER the total. |
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12-19-20 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati -14 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have been a point spread powerhouse this season, as they're 6-1 ATS. And we've benefited greatly, as we played on Tulsa in each of its last three games (3-0 ATS), while never going against it this season. But the Golden Hurricane are in a horrible spot here, as they have to play the AAC Title game on Cincinnati's home field. They also played here last season, and lost 24-13. which was their fourth straight loss here in Cincinnati (and 2nd straight since each team joined the AAC). Of course, the fact that Tulsa hasn't won here shouldn't come as a surprise, as the Bearcats have dominated opponents at home. Cincy's currently riding a 19-game home win streak, and has gone 11-4 ATS its last 15, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win. Even better for Cincy: it's 10-0 ATS its last 10 at home when priced from -10 to -21 points against an opponent off a win, and it's 46-24-1 ATS at home since 1990 vs. foes off a win. But the clincher is that road teams that were on a 4-game (or better) win streak are a horrid 0-8 SU/ATS when playing with revenge in the post-season! Take the Bearcats to blow out Tulsa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-20 | Alabama v. Florida +17.5 | Top | 52-46 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Alabama. The Gators suffered a huge upset loss last week when they fell, 37-34, at home vs. LSU. And Florida was favored by 24 points in that game! The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Florida, and lay the points with Alabama. After all, the Crimson Tide currently have the best ATS (net profit) record in the country (tied with Coastal Carolina), at 8-2 ATS. But great point spread records don't equate with success in Title games, as teams with a .750 (or better) ATS record have only covered 40% of Conference Championship games. Additionally, .666 (or better) college football underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset conference loss at home, have gone 41-15 ATS. And NCAA teams that gave up more than 31 points in defeat in their previous game, have covered the spread in 71% of Conference title games. Take Florida + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-20 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Minnesota. The Golden Gophers went into Lincoln, Nebraska last week, and upset the Cornhuskers, 24-17, as an 8-point road underdog. But this is a horrible situation for the Gophers, as the Badgers come into this Saturday afternoon game on a rare 3-game losing streak. Even worse for the Badgers: they were favored in each of those games, and scored just 7, 6 and 7 points in those defeats. But we'll take Wisky to bounce back here, at home, as double-digit home favorites, off back to back SU/ATS losses, have cashed 71% over the last 41 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home team was off an upset defeat in its previous game. Additionally, this will be Wisconsin's final home game of the season. And it's 24-13 ATS in its final game at home when matched up against a Big 10 foe, including 8-4 ATS off a SU loss. Meanwhile, Minnesota is a wallet-busting 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS on the road when getting 11+ points against an opponent off an upset loss. Take Wisconsin minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-20 | Ole Miss -1 v. LSU | Top | 48-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over LSU. Last week, the Tigers upset then-No. 6-ranked Florida, 37-34. And LSU was a 24-point underdog in that game! Can Ed Orgeron's men make it two-upsets-in-a-row? I wouldn't bet on it, as defending National Champions are a soft 96-126-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win. Even worse, if our defending champs pulled off an upset in their previous game, then those teams are a woeful 4-12 ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS if they weren't favored by 3+ points in the current game. That doesn't bode well for LSU on Saturday afternoon. Nor does the fact that College football home teams have covered just 10 of 35 games off an upset win, if they were an underdog of 20+ points in their previous game. And LSU is a wallet-busting 2-11 ATS off a road upset win. It's true that LSU has won the last four meetings by 21, 29, 16 and 17 points. But Ole Miss is a solid 31-17-1 ATS when playing on the road with revenge vs. an opponent off a win. And revenge-minded SEC Conference teams, with a .500 (or better) record, are 30-13 ATS as a favorite away from home, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -4.5 points. Take Lane Kiffin's Rebels to blow out LSU. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-20 | Marist v. Manhattan -1 | Top | 61-39 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Marist. In their last game, the Jaspers upset Rider, 87-77, as a 1-point home underdog. Off that win, we'll play on Manhattan this afternoon, as home teams, off double-digit upset home conference wins, have cashed 58% of conference games since 1990 (212-155 ATS) when not favored by more than 3 points. That bodes well for the Jaspers today. As does the fact that it's cashed 64.7% over the last 31 years at home off an upset win, if it was favored against a conference foe. Finally, the Red Foxes have covered just 14 of 41 games off a SU win. Lay the small number with the homestanding Jaspers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-20 | Northwestern +19 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Ohio State. It's extremely hard to turn down this many points in a post-season game. Indeed, dating back to 1990, underdogs priced from +16 to +22.5 points have gone 25-6 ATS, including 13-1 ATS the last eight seasons! I won't fade those numbers. And, importantly, Northwestern's defense allows just 14.5 ppg -- 8.62 ppg better than Ohio State's defense. And, when you give the much better defensive team a lot of points in the post-season, it's been very profitable, as underdogs of more than 7 points, that surrendered at least 7 less points than their opponent, have covered 71% over the last 41 years. Even better: the Wildcats are a $$$-making 36-15 ATS as underdogs away from home, including 8-1 ATS when priced from +11.5 to +23.5 points. And they're 12-4 when getting a touchdown, and playing with revenge, including a perfect 4-0 when priced from +14 to +21 points. Take Northwestern + the points on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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12-18-20 | Oregon +3 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Southern Cal. There's a saying that it's "better to be lucky than good." And that might end up applying to the Oregon Ducks, if they can take advantage of their good fortune to be playing in this Pac-12 Championship game. After all, Oregon finished 2nd to Washington in the Pac-12 North division. But COVID-19 issues scuttled Washington's plans, so Oregon was tabbed to replace Washington as USC's opponent. It's true the Ducks have dropped their last two games, while USC is 5-0 straight-up, and has covered each of their last three. But single-digit underdogs off a straight-up loss are 9-1 ATS their last 10 in Conference Title game. And the Ducks are 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven vs. the Trojans. Take Oregon + the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-20 | Davidson +2.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats + the points over Rhode Island. The Rams come into this game off back to back road losses at Wisconsin and at Western Kentucky (though they covered each in defeat to extend their ATS win streak to 4 games). Meanwhile, Davidson was upset, 63-52, as a 10.5-point home favorite in its last game. But off that upset loss, we'll back the Wildcats in this underdog role tonight, as teams off double-digit losses, as double-digit favorites have covered 64% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back defeats. Additionally, Bob McKillop's men are 24-11-1 ATS off a SU loss when not getting more than 3 points in a conference game. And they're 21-10-1 ATS in competitively-priced conference games with a point spread of 3 points or less. Meanwhile, the Rams are a poor 5-9 ATS as a home favorite vs. conference foes off upset losses. And Rhode Island also falls into a negative 13-45 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off 4+ ATS wins. Take Davidson + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-20 | Dixie State v. Southern Utah -10 | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Dixie State. These two Beehive State schools are located less than an hour apart from each other, and should begin to play with more regularity now that Dixie State has made the jump to Division 1 this season. Both teams have gotten off to good starts this season. Dixie is 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. The Trailblazers pulled off an upset win in their last game, as they won, 73-70, at Denver, as a 2-point underdog. But that upset victory has triggered a negative 39% ATS system of mine which goes against certain .818 (or better) teams off upset wins, if they're on the road vs. opponents also off a win. Like Dixie State, the Thunderbirds have yet to lose against the spread this season, as they're 4-0 ATS. And they've also cashed 62% at home vs. foes off upset wins. Even better: .720 (or better) Big Sky conference teams have cashed 67% of non-conference games (and 71% of games vs. foes off a SU win). Lay the points with Southern Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 54 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the 'over' tonight, given that the previous meeting totaled 57 points, and that each team has played a majority of its games over the total this season. But we're going to run the other way, as six of the last eight (and 20 of the last 31) meetings between these two division rivals have gone 'under' the total. Additionally, in its last game, Las Vegas combined for 71 points with the Indianapolis Colts (a 44-27 defeat). But over the last 41 years, NFL division games have gone 'under' the total 66.1% of the time when the team's previous game totaled more than 58 points, and both the team's games, and its foe's games averaged 50+ points on the season. Finally, the 'under' falls into 18-3, 101-46 and 123-84 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-16-20 | Duke -4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Notre Dame. In their last game, the Irish upset Kentucky, 64-63, as a 7.5-point road underdog. Can Mike Brey's men make it two-in-a-row? It's not likely, as Mike Krzyzewski's men fall into one of their best situations tonight. The Blue Devils come into this game on an 0-4 ATS run, including an 83-68 blowout upset loss at the hands of Illinois eight days ago. But the Dukies are a spectacular 26-8-1 ATS in the regular season when they were on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 18-3 ATS as a favorite vs. ACC schools. The Blue Devils are also 6-0 SU/ATS vs. the Irish since 2017, and 18-5 ATS off a double-digit upset defeat. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-16-20 | Texas-San Antonio v. Oregon State -7.5 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Texas San Antonio. Wayne Tinkle's Beavers have gotten off to a rough start this season, as they've lost their last three games -- all of the upset variety. That streak should end this afternoon, as home favorites of more than 6 points -- off exactly 3 losses -- have covered 65% since 2000 if they were favored in each of those three defeats. Even better: Texas San Antonio has covered just 10 of its last 33 away from home when installed as an underdog. Take Oregon State to blow out the Roadrunners. |
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12-15-20 | Charlotte v. Davidson -11.5 | Top | 63-52 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats minus the points over Charlotte. In this Mecklenburg County battle, we'll side with the homestanding Wildcats against the 49ers. Even though Davidson's just 20 miles from Charlotte, this still counts as a road game for the 49ers. And it will be Charlotte's first road game of the season. Unfortunately, the road has not been kind to Charlotte, as it has gone 13-45 SU and 18-39 ATS since January 2016. But that's not the worst part. When the 49ers have been installed as a dog of more than 8 points, they've gone 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS on the road! Lay the double-digits with Davidson. |
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12-15-20 | Minnesota v. Illinois -7.5 | Top | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are unbeaten, at 6-0, as they enter Big 10 Conference play. But the Gophers were double-digit favorites in five of those six games, so the reality is that they're really not been tested. Here, they're installed as a mid-sized road underdog against a 4-2 Illinois team ranked #13 in the country. Over the last 20 years, teams that were undefeated in their non-conference games prior to starting conference play have covered just 41% as underdogs of more than 5 points in their first conference game. Even worse for Richard Pitino's troops: they're a dreadful 12-34 ATS their last 46 Big 10 conference road games when installed as a single-digit underdog (or PK). And they're 16-36 ATS their last 52 vs. Illinois (including 0-11 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points). Take the Illini minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-15-20 | Houston Baptist v. Rice -14.5 | Top | 79-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over Houston Baptist. The Owls were upset here, at home, 72-61, on Sunday by New Mexico. But off that double-digit upset defeat, the Owls now fall into several of my better bounce-back systems, including one with a 58-21 ATS record. It's true that these two teams met a week-and-a-half ago -- a game which Rice won by 22, 86-64, as a 9.5-point favorite. And it's also true that I will often take teams to avenge such blowout losses. But it's hard to make a case for the Huskies this afternoon. After all, they've lost their three road games this season by 24, 23, and 25 points. And the fact that they come into this game off a SU win, while Rice checks in off an upset loss is enough for me to ignore the revenge angle. Finally, the Owls have cashed 63% as a home favorite of -7 (or more) points off an upset home loss. Lay the points with Rice. |
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12-14-20 | William & Mary v. George Washington -6.5 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on the CBS Sports Network, our selection is on the George Washington Colonials minus the points over William & Mary. GW comes into this game off back to back upset losses at UMBC and at Delaware, while William & Mary also comes into tonight's game off a loss at Old Dominion. We'll lay the points with the Colonials, as home teams have cashed 62.3% since 1990 in non-conference games after being upset in two straight games. And George Washington is a super 32-16 ATS off a loss when priced from -6.5 to -16.5 points, if their opponent is also off a defeat. Take George Washington minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-13-20 | Steelers v. Bills -2 | Top | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost for the first time last week, 23-17, as a 5.5-point favorite, after 11 straight wins to open the season. And it was the (now 5-7) Washington Football Team which handed Pittsburgh its first loss -- and at Heinz Field, no less. In stark contrast, the Bills played, perhaps, their best game of the season, as they went out to the west coast (Arizona) to play a good 49ers team, and upset them, 34-24, as a 2-point underdog. That was the first time the Bills won as an underdog away from home since the last time these two teams met (Dec. 15, 2019), when Buffalo won 17-10 at Pittsburgh. Off those two results, we'll play on Buffalo as a small home favorite on Sunday night. For technical support, consider that, in the last four weeks of the season (and the Playoffs), NFL home favorites off a SU/ATS win, in which they covered by more than 10 points, have cashed 64.3% vs. road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 10 points. And the Steelers are an atrocious 8-26-1 ATS on the non-division road, if they owned a .727 (or better) win percentage, and weren't getting 3+ points. Take the Bills. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-13-20 | Falcons v. Chargers | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the Atlanta Falcons. To say the Chargers played last week the worst game of this current NFL season would not be an overstatement. After all, they were favored by 2.5 points against New England, but lost 45-0. Not only was that the worst performance -- relative to the point spread -- of any team this season, but it was just the second time since 1980 that an NFL favorite failed to cover the spread by more than 46 points. After the game, the Chargers' players were saying all the right things. Even QB Justin Herbert defended his coach's much-maligned decision to keep his rookie signal caller on the field throughout the blowout since, as he put it, he just wants to "be out there and give everything [he has]." I believe Los Angeles will bounce back strong off that debacle. And, for technical support, consider that NFL home underdogs (or PK), off a 35-point (or worse) defeat, have gone 50-29-2 ATS. Additionally, Atlanta is 1-7 ATS its last eight as a road favorite. And losing teams (like the Falcons) are a soft 17-33-1 ATS the last four weeks of the season as road favorites vs. foes off losses by more than 15 points. Take the Chargers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-13-20 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 55 | Top | 31-24 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Detroit game. The Packers come into this afternoon's game off back to back wins over Chicago (41-25) and Philadelphia (30-16). Meanwhile, Detroit has played back to back high-scoring games its last two outings, as it lost 41-25 to Houston, and then defeated the Bears, 34-30, last week. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, as Green Bay's scored more than 70 points combined over its last two games, while Detroit's given up more than 70 points over its last two contests. But over the last 41 years, NFL games have gone 'under' the total 58% when the underdog gave up more than 70 points over its last two games, and its opponent scored more than 70 in its last two. Additionally, the 'under' falls into 127-77 and 62-28 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-13-20 | Colts v. Raiders UNDER 52.5 | Top | 44-27 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Las Vegas/Indianapolis game. Through 12 games, both Las Vegas and Indianapolis own winning records, and are in contention for the playoffs. But it's the last few weeks of the regular seasons that separate the contenders from the pretenders. And all the teams understand how important defense is at this time of the year, as that old adage -- defense wins championships -- is actually very true when it comes to the NFL. Not surprisingly, match-ups between winning teams in the final 6 weeks of the NFL season tend to go 'under' the total, and especially if the line is greater than 46 points, as those games have gone 'under' 60% of the time. Take the 'under.' |
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12-13-20 | Jets v. Seahawks OVER 47.5 | Top | 3-40 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Seattle/New York game. After scoring 10 points or less in four straight games (all of which went 'under' the total), the hapless Jets have quietly scored 27+ points in three of their last four games. Not surprisingly, all three of those games sailed 'over' the total. Now, New York will go up against a below-average Seahawks defense which is giving up 26.8 ppg (against foes that average 24.5). So, New York -- which averages just 15 ppg -- will likely be able to exceed that number. Still, defeating a Seattle team which was upset at home last week by the New York Giants will be a tall order. And, since Pete Carroll was hired almost 11 years ago, the Seahawks have generally won and covered high-scoring games at home off a loss. And 10 of 13 Seattle home games have gone 'over' the total if Seattle lost its previous game, and the line was greater than 43 points. I look for a high-scoring game this afternoon. Take the 'over.' |
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12-13-20 | New Mexico v. Rice -2 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over New Mexico. Rice is off to a perfect 4-0 start this season, and is 2-0 ATS in their two lined games. Meanwhile, this will be the Lobos first game of the season, as COVID has greatly impacted their program. Even worse, the state of New Mexico has issued an order which prohibits the team from practicing or playing games within the state. So, UNM has created a "home away from home" in West Texas, and has been scrimmaging non-division I opponents like South Plains College and Lubbock Christian University. Whether such scrimmages will have prepared the Lobos for their first Division I game of the season this afternoon remains to be seen, but we will bet against it. One reason is that the Lobos have been dreadful on the road over the last few seasons, even without the COVID-related distractions. Dating back to 2015, New Mexico is 26-60 SU away from home, and 31-52 ATS, including 16-40 ATS vs. foes not off a SU/ATS loss. And Rice is 27-15 ATS as a single-digit favorite vs. non-conference foes. Take Rice minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-13-20 | Norfolk State v. NC-Greensboro -10.5 | Top | 47-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on North Carolina-Greensboro minus the points over Norfolk State. In its last game, NC Greensboro was upset, 85-80, by Coppin St, as a 21.5-point road favorite! That was the biggest upset loss sustained on an opponent's home court in the last 31 seasons. And that was also the 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS) suffered by NC Greensboro. We'll lay the points this afternoon, as this is a great bounce-back spot vs. Norfolk St., which won and covered last Monday vs. Hampton. For technical support, consider that home teams have covered 64% since 1990 off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite away from home when matched up against a non-conference opponent off a straight-up win. Take NC Greensboro. |
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12-13-20 | Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 52.5 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tennessee/Jacksonville game. The Titans have played their last four games 'over' the total, including last week's 41-35 loss to Cleveland. But each of those four games was against a winning, playoff-bound team. Here, they're going to take on a Jacksonville team which has lost 11 straight games, and is averaging less than 21 points per game. And, late in the season (the final four weeks), really bad teams -- with win percentages less than .200 -- have gone 'under' the total 77% of the time over the last 40 seasons when the O/U line has been greater than 46 points. Even better: the Jaguars have gone under in 18 of 29 home games. And road favorites of -3 (or more) points, like Tennessee, have gone 'under' 76% of the time over the last 40 seasons when the line was 51+ points. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3 | Top | 15-33 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Virginia. The Cavaliers are 5-4 on the season, and enter this Commonwealth rivalry game on a 4-game win streak (and 5-game ATS win streak), while the Hokies have lost their last four games SU/ATS. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot underdog Cavaliers. But consider that road teams off a SU win, that were also on a 3-game ATS win streak, have covered just 50 of 124 conference games against foes off a SU loss, that were on a 3-game ATS losing streak. And if our road team owned a winning record, and was an underdog of 7 or less points, then our road teams have gone 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS. Take Virginia Tech minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-20 | Iona v. Fairfield +7.5 | Top | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 1 h 35 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fairfield Stags + the points over Iona. These two teams played last night, and the result was not pretty for the Stags, as they shot just 27% for the game, and were annihilated 70-42. Last night, Fairfield was a 4-point home underdog; tonight, the line has been adjusted upwards by a few points to better reflect last night's score. For some, it won't be enough of an adjustment, but for me it is, as I believe Fairfield will play a much better ballgame tonight. For technical support, the Stags fall into a 90% 'bounce-back' system of mine which plays on certain teams off 20-point (or worse) losses. And they also fall into a 63.5% revenge system of mine which plays on certain underdogs of +3 (or more) points that suffered a bad loss to its opponent earlier in the season. Take the Stags + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +9.5 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Boise State. The Cowboys were upset at home, 17-16, by New Mexico in their last game. And Wyoming was favored by more than two touchdowns! But off that horrible game, we'll take the Cowboys to bounce back on Saturday as a big home underdog. Indeed, over the last 30 seasons, NCAA home underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 12, have cashed 73%. And Wyoming's also cashed 75% since 1980 as a conference home underdog off an upset loss. Take the points with Wyoming. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-20 | Duke +4 v. Florida State | Top | 35-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Florida State. The Blue Devils were shut out, 48-0, at home by Miami last weekend, which was their 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS). But conference road underdogs off home shutout defeats have bounced back to cover 57% over the last 41 years. Likewise, Florida State comes into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak. However, that's not too surprising, as it's been several years since the Seminoles have been a good point spread team. And they've been especially poor when matched up against an ACC conference rival which wasn't off a SU/ATS win. Now, if Florida State was playing a conference foe which DID win and cover its previous game, Florida State has actually had a winning ATS ledger in those games, as those opponents tended to suffer letdowns. But when its ACC opponent DIDN'T win and cover its previous game, then Florida State is a horrid 29-59-4 ATS. But that's not the worst part. If the Seminoles were favored by 17 points or less (or PK), then they've gone 10-40-3 ATS. Yikes! Take Duke + the points. |
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12-12-20 | Gardner-Webb v. Pittsburgh -13 | Top | 50-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Gardner-Webb. The Panthers are off to a solid 3-1 start after coming back from an early 10-point deficit to upset Northwestern, 71-70, in Evanston, on Wednesday. The Panthers showed a lot of moxie and competitive spirit on the road, as they trailed for all but the last 5.6 seconds of the game, before Justin Champagnie's game-winning dunk gave them the final margin of victory. The key for Pitt was its tough defense, as it held the explosive Wildcats to more than 31 points below their scoring average. And they're getting terrific offensive production across the board, as they're the only ACC school with three players ranked among the ACC's Top 10 in scoring. Those players are Au'Diese Toney (18.3 ppg), Xavier Johnson (18.0) and Champagnie (18.3). And Champagnie is also the only ACC player who is averaging a double-double, as he has pulled down 11 rebounds a game to lead the entire conference. This afternoon, Jeff Capel's men will welcome the Bulldogs to the Steel City, and the Bulldogs played two ACC member schools last season, and lost by 16 (N. Carolina) and 27 (Virginia Tech) points. We'll lay the points with Pitt, as I believe the momentum gathered from Wednesday's game will carry the Panthers forward at home today against an overmatched Big South conference school. Take Pitt. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-20 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3 | Top | 62-26 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina. Last week, Miami went into Durham, and shut out Duke, 48-0, as a 13.5-point road favorite. Suffice it to say, when a college football team shuts out its opponent on the road, then it's playing really well. And one of the last things I will ever do is step in front of a team which just pitched a road shutout. Indeed, these teams have gone 192-128-9 ATS in the regular season since 1980 (60%), including 18-1 ATS their last 19 when favored by 11 points or less, and off a win by 34+ points. Take Miami to blow out North Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy +14 | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over Coastal Carolina. Last week, the 9-0 Chanticleers faced off with the 9-0 BYU Cougars. The Chanticleers were double-digit underdogs, but pulled off the upset, 22-17. However, teams that win "Battles of Unbeatens" -- at Game 8 forward -- tend to have letdowns in their following game, and have done especially poor when favored by double-digits off an upset win, as they've gone 0-7 ATS their last seven. Even worse for Coastal: the Trojans are 15-5-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 7-1-1 ATS at home, and 6-1 ATS as an underdog. Take the Trojans + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-20 | Akron v. Buffalo -32.5 | Top | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Akron. The Bulls slaughtered Kent St, 70-41, in their last game, as a 7.5-point favorite. And Buffalo is averaging 50.75 points on the season. Faithful followers know I love playing on college football teams that can score. And, over the last 41 years, home teams that average more than 50 points per game on offense, have covered 63.5% vs. losing teams, if our home team was favored by less than 45 points (and 75% if our team scored 65+ in its previous game). That bodes well for the Bulls on Saturday. As does the fact that Akron has covered just four of its last 19 games as an underdog, while Buffalo is 14-0 ATS its last 14 home games vs. Mid-American conference rivals. Take Buffalo minus the points. |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State v. Penn State -14.5 | Top | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Michigan State. We played on the Nitts last week as our biggest play of the season-to-date, and were rewarded with an easy win over Rutgers. After starting the season 0-5, Penn State's won its last two games, and I look for it to make it three-in-a-row on this Saturday. And it's a perfect situational spot for the Nitts, as Michigan State will be playing its final road game of the season off three straight home games! Since 1980, teams playing their final game of the season on the road have covered just 28% of the time, if they played their three previous games at home, and their opponent was off a point spread win. Even better for Penn State: it's 11-2 ATS in its final home game of the season when priced from -9 to -23 points. The Nittany Lions were a better team than reflected in their 0-5 start, and that was evident last weekend. We'll take Penn State to close out the season strong in Happy Valley. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-11-20 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Kansas State -9 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over the Milwaukee Panthers. In its last game, Kansas State was stunned by Division II member Fort Hays State, 81-68. And, to make the loss even more ignominious, the Tigers were 0-3 this season prior to the win, and became the first Division 11 team to defeat a major conference opponent on the road in 20 years! The last team to pull off such a feat was Texas A&M Corpus Christi, when it bested Texas Tech, 86-80, on Dec. 18, 2000. Of course, after that embarrassing loss, the Red Raiders bounced back to win their next game, and they also covered the point spread in their next four subsequent lined games. I expect Kansas State to also bounce back tonight. They'll have the distinct advantage of playing a Panthers squad which hasn't taken the court yet this season. And Milwaukee ended last season on an 0-7 ATS run, and is 6-19-1 ATS its last 26. Meanwhile, K-State is 9-5 ATS its last 14 at home off a home loss. Lay the points with the Wildcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over New England. The Patriots come into Thursday night's game off back to back upset wins. Two weeks ago, Bill Belichick's men upset Arizona, 20-17, in Foxborough, and followed that victory up with a 45-0 shutout of the Chargers, in Los Angeles. They now will play the other Los Angeles team -- also on the road -- as they look to improve their W/L record to 7-6 in a last-ditch attempt to get back into playoff contention. Unfortunately, they're not likely to find success. First, from a technical standpoint, .500 (or better) NFL clubs off back to back upset wins, are a horrible 33-66 ATS on the road in non-division games. Even worse: the Patriots are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS as an underdog off back to back upsets, while the Rams are 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS as a home favorite. Take Sean McVay's team minus the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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12-10-20 | Gardner-Webb v. Western Kentucky -16 | Top | 84-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Gardner Webb. The Runnin' Bulldogs are playing their first game of the 2020 season tonight, and will travel to Bowling Green, KY to take on the Hilltoppers, who are 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS after dropping their 3rd straight game to the spread on Saturday (96-69, as a 42.5-point favorite). The Bulldogs return just two starters from last season, so they'll be at a disadvantage tonight vs. a Hilltoppers squad which returned all five starters, and will be playing its sixth game of the season. So, we'll play on Western Kentucky to get the $$$ tonight, as they're 28-1 SU and 20-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite following a game where they failed to cover by 6+ points. Meanwhile, Gardner-Webb is a horrible 0-7 ATS as an underdog of more than 12 points in the regular season vs. a foe off an ATS loss. Lay the points with the Hilltoppers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic -8 v. Southern Miss | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Southern Miss. Last week, Willie Taggart's Owls were upset by Georgia Southern, 20-3, as a 2.5-point road favorite. But off that loss, we'll step in and lay the points with Florida Atlantic tonight, as Taggart's teams in his coaching career (Western Kentucky, South Florida, Oregon, Florida State and Florida Atlantic) have gone 45-31 ATS in conference games, and have also cashed 75% in his career off an upset loss. Even better: Conference USA teams have gone 13-0 ATS as road favorites priced from -8.5 to -24 points off an upset defeat. Finally, Southern Miss is a woeful 4-18 ATS at home vs. a foe off a point spread loss. Take Florida Atlantic minus the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-09-20 | San Diego v. UCLA -17.5 | Top | 56-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over San Diego. The Toreros have had a late start to this 2020 campaign, as their early games -- in the Husky Classic -- were cancelled due to the coronavirus. That will place San Diego at a disadvantage tonight, given this will be UCLA's 5th game of the season. Even worse for Sam Scholl's troops: they return just two starters, while UCLA returned all five starters. The Bruins had a rough start to the season, as they lost, 73-58, at San Diego St. in their first game. And then they needed triple overtime to get by Pepperdine in Game #2. But they've gelled over their last two games -- 20+ point blowout wins over Seattle and California. I look for UCLA to make it three BLOWOUTS in a row on this Wednesday, as Pac-12 teams off back to back SU/ATS wins have cashed 69% vs. West Coast Conference foes. Lay the points with the Bruins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-09-20 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson -8 | Top | 71-79 | Push | 0 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights minus the points over Central Connecticut. These two teams played yesterday here, and the Blue Devils upset the Knights, 94-87, as a 9-point road underdog. That was the Northeast Conference opener for both teams, and we'll take the homestanding Knights in the rematch this afternoon. Dating back to 1990, home favorites have covered 56% off an upset home loss, if they were playing an opponent off an upset road win. And the Knights also fall into a 146-95 ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-08-20 | Syracuse v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Syracuse. To say that Rutgers has revenge would be an understatement. After all, Syracuse has won the last 13 meetings (dating back to when both teams were Big East schools). The good news for Rutgers -- at least for tonight's game -- is that teams have cashed 60.9% in non-conference games over the past 31 years if they had lost the last 7 games in the series, and were not getting 6+ points in the current game. Take Rutgers minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys +8 v. Ravens | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Baltimore. The Ravens have dropped their last three games, while Dallas was upset its last time out, on Thanksgiving Day, by the Football Team. The final score of that game was Washington 41 Dallas 16, so it was a most embarrassing loss for Dallas. I look for it to rebound tonight, as teams off upset losses by 20+ points have gone 108-69-4 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, NFL teams, like Baltimore, off 3+ losses, have covered just 18 of 54 regular season games over the last 34 years. This past weekend, the season-long trend of the underdogs cashing continued, as the dogs barked loudly, and went 9-5. For the entire season, they're 110-81 ATS. And they've also gone 20-11 ATS this season on the weekday games, and 37-20 ATS off a home loss. Take Dallas + the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-08-20 | Central Arkansas v. St. Louis -21 | Top | 65-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Central Arkansas. St. Louis is 3-0 SU/ATS this season, and has covered the spread by 11.5 ppg. And they won their previous game by 53 points! Over the last 31 years, favorites of more than 7 points off 3 SU/ATS wins to start the season have cashed 60% of the time. Additionally, the Billikens are 34-13 ATS at home off back to back point spread wins. Take St. Louis. |
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12-08-20 | Tennessee State v. Belmont -13.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Tennessee State. This is the Ohio Valley Conference opener for both teams. But a key difference is that it's also Tennessee State's season opener, while Belmont has already played four games. And these extra games in hand have enabled teams to cover the spread 60% of the time over the last 31 years when playing an opponent which was playing its first game. So, that bodes well for the Bruins tonight. As does the fact that the Tigers have covered just four of its last 18 conference games. Lay the points with Belmont. |
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12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers +1 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers over the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are 8-3 (.727), while the 49ers are 5-6 (.454), but the oddsmakers have made this game a near-PK'em. It might look easy to take the team with the much better record, but be careful. On Monday Night Football, when a team has owned a win percentage at least .200 better than its foe (at Game 12 forward), and it wasn't favored by more than 4 points, it's gone 1-13 SU/ATS. That doesn't bode well for Buffalo on this Monday night. And neither does the fact that the 49ers are an awesome 40-11 1 ATS on Monday Night Football when they weren't favored by more than 10 points, while Buffalo is 0-6-2 ATS on the Monday Night road when they were playing a non-division foe, and were not getting 7+ points! Take the 49ers to blow out Buffalo. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-07-20 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -14 | Top | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Eastern Washington. We played on Oregon in its last game, and easily got the $$$ with an 83-70 win over Seton Hall. That moved the 21st-ranked Ducks to 1-1 this season, and they'll play their home opener this evening against Big Sky Conference-member Eastern Washington. The Eagles have been competitive this season, but have yet to crack into the win column. They're 0-2 SU after two 3-point losses at Pac-12-member schools Washington St. and Arizona. We'll go against the Eagles tonight, as teams off back to back losses have covered just 34.4% since 1990 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win that were playing their home opener. That bodes well for Oregon. As does the fact that Oregon is 30-12 ATS its last 42 games, as well as 58-36-1 ATS at home its last 95 games vs. non-conference foes, provided the Ducks won their previous game. Lay the points with Dana Altman's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Kansas City Chiefs/Denver Broncos game. The Chiefs have gone 'under' the total in 21 of their last 28 division games with over/under lines of 47+ points, while Denver has gone 'under' in 23 of its last 31 division games with an over/under line greater than 42 points. Not surprisingly, then, this series has gone 8-1-1 'under' the total when the line has been 48+ points. This game, in particular, has all the earmarks of an 'under.' The Chiefs are a double-digit favorite against an offensively-challenged Broncos team, with a high over/under line. And the technicals back this up, as games that involve a 7-point (or greater) underdog which scores less than 19.6 ppg, have gone 'under' 100-65-2 when the line was 47+ points. Even better: The Chiefs have gone 'under' the total in 22 of their last 27 home games against teams with a negative scoring margin of -1.8 (or worse), including 6-0 'under' when KC was favored by more than 11 points. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the Chiefs/Broncos 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers -1.5 | Top | 45-0 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the New England Patriots. Los Angeles has dropped its last five games against the spread. But I love it to get into the win column on this Sunday, as teams off 5+ point spread defeats have gone 62-34-4 ATS since 1980 if they owned a losing record, and were playing a non-division opponent off a SU win. Even better: the Patriots are 0-6 ATS their last six, and 2-10 ATS their last 12 vs. foes on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. Take the Chargers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-06-20 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints OVER the total. The Saints have gone 'under' in each of their last four games (after starting the season with seven straight 'overs,' while Atlanta's previous two games have gone 'under.' So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here. Don't do it. Generally speaking, teams off 4+ unders tend to go 'over' in their next game, including 58.3% since 1980 when the line was greater than 45 points and their opponent was also off an 'under.' Take the 'over' in the Saints/Falcons game. |
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12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets OVER 46.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders to go OVER the total. The Raiders generally go 'over' the total on the non-division road, including an 18-6-2 Over record when the line has been less than 49 points. Likewise, the Jets have gone 18-8 Over at home in non-division games with lines less than 49 points. Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total, and we'll look for another high-scoring game here, as I believe the two teams will bounce back off their poor offensive performances last week. The Jets only scored 3 vs. Miami, while Las Vegas managed just 6 at Atlanta. But NFL games, with lines greater than 40 points, have gone over 62% of the time if the two teams combined for less than 10 points on offense their previous game. Take the OVER. |
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12-06-20 | Saints v. Falcons +3 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -117 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans. It always pains me to go against the Saints (who I selected in the preseason to win the Super Bowl (at 10-1 odds)). But we've got to do it this afternoon, given their recent hot streak (8 straight wins, 4 straight covers), and absence of Drew Brees on the field. And even though New Orleans dominated Atlanta in the 2nd half of the game two weeks ago -- to pull away for a 24-9 win -- we'll grab the points with the Falcons in the rematch. In that game, which was at New Orleans, the Falcons were a 3-point road underdog. Now, the line is the same, even though the Falcons are the home team. There's point spread value on the Atlanta side. Moreover, NFL teams off 8+ wins, and 4+ covers are 0-9 ATS their last nine, and 4-16 ATS their last 20! That doesn't bode well for the Saints on Sunday. And the Saints also fall into negative 75-140 and 34-69 ATS systems of mine. Take the Falcons + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders. I'm well aware that the Jets are a bad football team. You don't start the season with 11 straight losses if you're not. But I'm never averse to taking points with bad NFL teams. However, what I'm loath to do is to lay a lot of points with bad teams. Now, an argument can be made that the Raiders aren't a "bad" team. After all, they have a winning record, at 6-5 on the season. BUT they've been outscored by 27 points this season, which is not the mark of a good team. And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are 154-235-6 ATS as favorites of 7+ points vs. opponents that didn't win their previous game. That doesn't bode well for the Raiders this afternoon. Nor does the fact that New York's 26-10 ATS at home, if they lost at home the previous game, including 11-3 ATS when getting more than 3 points. Finally, since 1980, winless teams off a SU/ATS loss are 65-35 ATS (at Game 6 forward) if they were an underdog against a non-division foe. Take the points with the Jets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-20 | Miami-FL v. Duke +15.5 | Top | 48-0 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Miami (Fla). Miami enters tonight's game on a 4-game win streak, after upsetting Virginia Tech, 25-24, in Blacksburg back on November 14. Duke's also played just one game over the previous three weekends, but its game came last Saturday when it lost at Georgia Tech, 56-33, as a 2.5-point road favorite. Overall, the Blue Devils are 2-7 this season, and have dropped their last two games (both SU and ATS). We'll grab the double-digits with the Blue Devils, as ACC teams are 29-8 ATS off back to back losses when playing a conference foe at home, or on a neutral field, if that foe was off 4+ wins. Even better: the Hurricanes are a wallet-busting 11-32 ATS when not playing the previous week, including 0-9 ATS their last nine. Take the points with Duke. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-20 | Colorado v. Arizona +8.5 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Colorado. It's true that the Buffaloes are 3-0 SU/ATS, while Arizona is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after getting blown out at UCLA last weekend. But we'll step in and take the winless Wildcats as a big home underdog on Saturday evening. Indeed, over the last 41 years, it's been profitable to play against teams that were undefeated in conference play (with a 2-0 or better record), if they were playing away from home against a team which was winless in conference play (with an 0-2 or worse record). And if our road team also was off an ATS win, while its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our system has cashed 62% since 1980. Arizona is a solid 27-15 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win, including 15-6 ATS at home. Take the points with the Wildcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-20 | Stanford v. Washington -11 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford. Both of these teams come into this game off narrow wins last weekend. The Huskies defeated Utah, 24-21, while Stanford got by rival California, 24-23. Last year, the Cardinal shocked the Huskies, 23-13, as 12.5-point home underdogs. But you know what they say about "paybacks!" And Washington is in prime position to avenge that loss on this Saturday, as they fall into a great 59-29 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were upset the previous season. Stanford is a wallet-busting 0-6-2 ATS away from Palo Alto its last eight, and 0-4-1 ATS its last five when playing a foe with revenge. Meanwhile, Washington is a fantastic 24-5 SU and 22-7 ATS when not getting 3 points vs. an opponent off a SU win, if the game was at home or on a neutral field (and 15-0 ATS if the Huskies didn't win their previous game by two touchdowns or more). Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -13 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Indiana. The Hoosiers won their sixth straight game against the spread last Saturday, and look to move their season ATS record to 7-0 when they travel to Madison this afternoon. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they lost their 1st string quarterback last week when Michael Penix Jr. suffered an ACL injury. Thus, sophomore QB Jack Tuttle, who was 5-for-5 (for 34 yards) in relief of Penix Jr. last week, will get the start under center. But the greater problem for Indiana today will be the fact that its opponent -- Wisconsin -- is not only a very talented team, but will be in an ornery mood off its upset loss last Saturday at Northwestern. The Badgers are 11-6 ATS in Big 10 Conference games when they were off a loss, while Indiana's a horrid 15-30 ATS on the Big 10 road when playing a foe off a loss, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +9 to +19 points! Finally, for technical support, consider that underdogs off a SU win, that have a point spread record of 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 33% since 1980, including just 18% vs. opponents off a SU loss. Take Wisconsin minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-20 | Tulsa -12 v. Navy | Top | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Navy. Tulsa's won its last five games since opening up with a respectable 16-7 loss at a very good Oklahoma State team. And Tulsa's also 5-1 ATS this season, including another cover in their last game -- a 30-24 victory over Tulane. And it's been perfect on the road, as it's 3-0 ATS this season, and 28-11 ATS away from Tulsa since 2014. This afternoon, Tulsa's been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Navy. Now, it's true that the Midshipmen might be the best traveler in College Football. Dating back to 1988, they're 127-70-4 ATS. Unfortunately for its home fans (at least for those who wager on games), Navy's burned money at home, in Annapolis. And they've been especially poor vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win, as they've covered just 9 of 41 since 1988, including 0-17-2 ATS when priced from -4 to +14 points. Yikes! Take Tulsa minus the points. |
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12-05-20 | Troy -4.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 29-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over South Alabama. The Trojans are favored on the road vs. the Jaguars, notwithstanding the fact they've lost their last three games SU/ATS (including a 47-10 blowout at Appalachian St. last Saturday), while the Jaguars check in off a 38-31 upset win last week at Arkansas State. And that's key, as NCAA road favorites have cashed 65.5% over the past 41 years off 3 SU losses, if they were playing a conference foe off a win! But that's not the best part. If our road favorite also failed to cover each of their 3 previous games, then our 65.5% ATS angle zooms to 90% ATS since 1980. Throw in the fact that Troy is an awesome 10-0 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) after losing their previous game by more than 28 points, and we have all the ammunition we need to load up on the Trojans today. Lay it. |
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12-05-20 | Penn State -11.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
At 12 Noon on Saturday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Rutgers. The Nittany Lions got off the schneid last week when they won and covered the spread for the first time all season (after five failures), on the road in Ann Arbor. For me, that was a big "buy signal" as, in college football, when teams open the season with 3+ ATS losses, they generally do well after their initial ATS cover when playing a team off a SU/ATS win, itself. The Scarlet Knights also won on the road last week, as they pulled off a major upset with a 37-30 triumph in West Lafayette vs. the Purdue Boilermakers, as a 13-point underdog. They're now 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS. Unfortunately for Rutgers, double-digit home dogs have covered just 33.9% after pulling off an upset as a double-digit road dog. And home dogs have also just cashed 37.1% over the last 41 seasons when they've owned both a better win percentage and ATS win percentage than their opponent. Penn State has won the last 13 games in this series, and 12 of the 13 have been by a margin larger than the current point spread! Indeed, the last five victories were by 25, 39, 29, 13 and 21 points. The Nittany Lions fall into terrific 98-27 and 171-84 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road favorites off wins. Lay the points with the Nittany Lions. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-20 | Ohio State -23.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 52-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State. We played on the Spartans last week vs. Northwestern, and they rewarded us with an outright win as a 13.5-point home underdog, 29-20. But off that major upset, we'll go against the Green and White this Saturday afternoon. Indeed, over the last 41 years, double-digit home dogs have covered just 36% vs. foes off a win, if our home dog won outright by 7+ points as a 7-point (or greater) home dog the previous week. Even worse: Big 10 teams have gone 4-24 SU and 7-20-1 ATS vs. Ohio State after an upset win the previous game, including 1-9-1 ATS when getting 18+ points. Take the Buckeyes to massacre Michigan State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-04-20 | Oregon -3 v. Seton Hall | Top | 83-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Seton Hall. The Ducks were upset in their first game by Missouri, 83-75. But I love Dana Altman's men to bounce back tonight, as they're 12-3 ATS their last 15 off an upset loss, including 3-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes. And they're also 16-4 ATS their last 20 vs. non-conference opposition. Finally, the Ducks fall into a 74.3% ATS bounce-back system of mine which plays on certain team after being upset as a favorite in their previous game. Take the Ducks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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12-04-20 | Kent State v. Virginia -19.5 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Kent State. The Golden Flashes opened their season with a 90-41 blowout of Point Park. They held the Pioneers to just 28% shooting, and outrebounded them 55-28. But Kent now must now step up in class to face the defending (2019) national champion Cavaliers. Virginia is 2-1 on the young season, as it sandwiched a loss to San Francisco in between victories over Towson and St. Francis. The Cavaliers are 36-22 ATS in the regular season vs. non-conference foes, including 16-3 ATS when favored by 18+ points. And Kent falls into a negative 82-155 ATS system of mine which goes against certain double-digit underdogs off blowout wins. Lay the points with Virginia. |
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12-04-20 | Southeastern Louisiana v. California Baptist -7.5 | Top | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana. These two teams actually met here just two days ago, and the Lions came away with an 81-80 upset win, as a 9-point road underdog. If there was a silver lining for Rick Croy's men, it's that they actually led by 14 points in the 2nd half prior to collapsing. And off that home upset loss, we'll lay the points with Cal Baptist, as they're 7-3 ATS off a loss (including 3-0 ATS off an upset loss), while the Lions are 1-5 ATS as an underdog vs. a foe off a SU loss. And the Lancers also fall into a super 88% ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points. |
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12-03-20 | Niagara v. Syracuse -21 | Top | 45-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Niagara. In its season opener, Syracuse defeated the Bryant Bulldogs, 85-84, which didn't enamor it to Las Vegas residents, as Syracuse was favored by 22.5 points in that game. Still, a win is a win, and Syracuse will now welcome cross-state rival Niagara to the Carrier Dome. The Purple Eagles haven't defeated the Orange in any of the last nine meetings, including a 71-57 loss last season. And this will be Niagara's first game of the season. We'll lay the points with Syracuse, as 14-point (or greater) favorites have covered 72% since 1990 after failing to cover the spread by more than 5 points, if they were now matched up against an opponent playing its first game of the season. Even better: Syracuse is a perfect 11-0 ATS as favorites of -4 (or more) points after failing to cover by 9+ in its previous game, while Niagara is 2-8 ATS its last 10 when getting 7+ points. Take the Orange. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-02-20 | Incarnate Word v. Wyoming -16 | Top | 83-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Incarnate Word. The Cardinals rebounded off their season-opening home loss to Rice to defeat Our Lady of the Lake, 84-71. They'll now play their first road game this season in Wyoming, which is 1-1 after getting upset by Texas Southern, 76-74, on Monday. The Cowboys were favored in that game by 10.5 points. But off that loss, we'll lay the double-digits with them tonight, as double-digit favorites have cashed 69% since 1990, if they were upset at home as a double-digit favorite in their previous game, and are now playing a non-conference foe off a double-digit home win. Take the Cowboys to blow out Incarnate Word. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-02-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis -20.5 | Top | 54-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Arkansas State. The Tigers come home off back to back upset losses, and have been installed as double-digit favorites vs. an 0-2 Red Wolves team which also suffered an upset defeat its last time out. We'll lay the points with Memphis at home, as home teams, off back to back upset defeats, are 180-130 ATS vs. losing teams. And the Tigers are 36-16 ATS off 2+ losses, including 8-0-1 ATS its last nine if it was upset in its previous game. Take Memphis minus the points. |
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12-02-20 | Houston Baptist v. SMU -30.5 | Top | 75-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Houston Baptist. SMU comes into this game off back to back 30+ wins at home, while the Huskies check in off back to back 23+ point losses on the road. Since 1990, NCAA teams, off back to back home wins to start the season, that have a scoring margin of +30 (or more points), have covered 70% at home vs. foes off back to back losses. Take SMU to blow out Houston Baptist. |