THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was -2.219 shots under par. Five of the last six winners had a score of 21 or more under par.

LONG SHOT: Bud Cauley (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Cauley (7127) versus Nico Echvarria (7128) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:05 PM ET.

Please check back later evening for the details and warrants for this selection. With the early start tomorrow, I wanted to get this published as soon as I made my decisions for subscribers. Thanks, Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulated putting surfaces consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was -2.219 shots under par. Five of the last six winners had a score of 21 or more under par.

BEST BET: Ben Griffin (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Griffin (7138) versus Jason Day (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:49 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA John Deere Classic is on Ben Griffin who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. There may be no hotter golfer on the PGA Tour than Griffin is right now. He made it six straight top-14 finishes last week with his tie for 13th place at the PGA Rocket Classic in Detroit last week. He had four straight top tens before his last two events including a victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a tie for second place at the Memorial sandwiched by an eighth place at the PGA Championship and a tie for tenth place at the US Open. He has two first-place results in his last nine tournaments after winning the duos event at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans at the end of April. The strength of his game has always been his short game — he ranks 35th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. But what has transformed his game has been his speed training work with his driver. After being below average in his first three seasons with his driver, he has suddenly elevated to the top ten on the tour in his last four tournaments (before last week — didn’t update those numbers but no red flags) in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. At Oakmont at the US Open which was another long course, he ranked in the top five for the week in Driving Distance. He ranks tenth in the field this week in Good Drives Gained. In his last eight tournaments, he is gaining an incredible +10 shots-gained versus the field on average. He is a very confident golfer right now who has risen to 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total for the year (up from 15th in that category last week). Griffin was our Best Bet last week — and I was initially concerned about that being his eighth event in the last nine weeks — but he won the Charles Schwab playing his fifth week in a row before his second-place finish the next week at the Memorial in his sixth tournament in a row. He took the next week off prior to the US Open. Relatively, he is still OK, relatively, since this is just his fourth work week in a row — and he seems to be striking while the match is hot given his great momentum. He has gained in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in six straight tournaments. He leads the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Griffin is making his 23rd start in 2025 — but he ranks sixth in the FedEx standings. In his debut at this tournament last year, he finished in a tie for fifth place.

Griffin is linked with Jason Day in Round One head-to-head props. Day is playing fine golf right now — he comes off a fourth-place finish at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. But that’s the rub. Is he looking to win this event — or is this simply a warmup for the British Open in two weeks? This is a popular name for bettors who has not won on the PGA Tour in more than two years. He ranks 77th in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He returns to a course where he finished tied for 23rd place last year — but he had not played here since 2011 back when Barack Obama was gearing up his re-election campaign. So, it’s been awhile — and it’s reasonable that he is not here to win the non-signature event prize money as much as help get his game in order for the final major championship this year. Day ranks 140th on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring this year — and Griffin ranks 17th in that metric. Take Griffin (7138) versus Day (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulated putting surfaces consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was -2.219 shots under par. Five of the last six winners had a score of 21 or more under par.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Denny McCarthy (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: McCarthy (7103) versus Si Woo Kim (7104) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:56 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Denny McCarthy who is listed at +2500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. McCarthy comes off a tie for 12th place at PGA Travelers Championship which is a similar course as TPC Deere Run since it is often less than driver off-the-tee and a birdie-fest. The most challenging aspect of this course is the undulating greens that can punish the professionals not familiar with its idiosyncrasies. McCarthy is a world-class putter who ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he has played this course six times previously as a professional so he knows these greens. McCarthy ranks ninth in the field in Proximity from 100 to 150 yards away which is a critical metric for this shorter course this week. He also ranks 22nd on the tour in Scrambling from 30 yards or less. These skills have translated well at this course recently. McCarthy has finished in two sixth places and tied for seventh place in the last three years at this event while averaging +10 strokes gained versus the field in those three tournaments. He is the only player in the field who has registered two straight top tens at this event in the last two years. McCarthy is looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour — and there have been 11 first-time winners on the tour at this event since 2000 when it moved to TPC Deere Run.

McCarthy is linked with Si Woo Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Kim had to withdraw from the Travelers Championship two weeks ago due to a back injury which made him a big risk last week at the Rocket Classic in Detroit where he settled in 84th place. And now here he is playing for the fourth straight week despite this nagging back issue. For a shorter course that emphasizes the second shot, Kim is not a great fit when considering that he ranks 55th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is also really struggling with his putter where he ranks 142nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has lost 4 shots versus the field with his blade in three tournaments. Now Kim comes back to TPC Deere Run where he has missed the cut twice and withdrawn in his third visit to Silvis. Kim also ranks just 86th in Round One Scoring — and McCarthy ranks 27th in Round One Scoring this year. Take McCarthy (7103) versus Kim (7104) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.