04-30-23 |
Warriors +1.5 v. Kings |
|
120-100 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (505) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (506) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (47-41) had won three games in a row in this series before their 118-89 upset loss to the Kings as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this best-of-seven series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINT(S): Golden State only made 37.2% of their shots which was a season-low for them all season. But they are the ones with the playoff experience in this series — and by going up 3-1 in this series, they earned the luxury of being able to play awful but still live to see another day. Look for the Warriors to play a very good game in this Game Seven after that embarrassing effort. As it is, Golden State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Sacramento played their best game in their last 12 contests by holding the Warriors to 37.2% shooting. But it is safe to assume that defense has not suddenly become the Kings' forte — they allow their guests to nail 50.4% of their shots when playing at home which results in 119.9 Points-Per-Game. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a 6-point or higher underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NBA Golden State-Sacramento ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (505) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-23 |
Heat v. Knicks -4 |
Top |
108-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (502) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (501) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (51-36) eliminated the Cavaliers in five games after upsetting them in Cleveland as a 6-point underdog last Wednesday. Miami (49-40) has pulled off three straight upset victories to defeat the Bucks in five games after their 128-126 victory as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York is rolling — and they should continue to build off their momentum as they are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games after a win by 10 or more points. They are also 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point-spread victory. And in their last 4 games when playing with three or more days of rest, the Knicks have covered the point spread all 4 times. They get to host the first two games in this series where they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home at Madison Square Garden. New York has both Julius Randle and Quentin Grimes questionable for this game — but head coach Tom Thibodeau is hopeful that both players can take the court after the few days off. Randle has gone through individual workouts this week while Grimes told reporters that he plans to play. The Knicks were outstanding on defense against the Cavaliers and squeezed the will out of them in the first round. They held Cleveland to just 44.9% shooting which resulted in a mere 94.2 Points-Per-Game. They also dominated the offensive glass — they pulled down at least 40% of their missed shots in three of the five games. Miami may be due to a letdown after pulling off three upset wins in a row against a reeling Bucks team. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss victory on the road. They are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win on the road. They are 9-28-1 ATS in their last 38 games after a point-spread win. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: New York won three of the four regular-season meetings between these two teams while posting a 60.9% effective field goal percentage against them and pulling down a healthy 28.3% of their missed shots. The Knicks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the New York Knicks (502) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-23 |
Suns v. Nuggets -2.5 |
Top |
107-125 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (553) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (57-30) has won five of their last six games after their 112-109 victory against Minnesota as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday that completed that series in five games. Phoenix (57-30) has won four games in a row after their 136-130 win against the Los Angeles Clippers that ended that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver closed out their series against the Timberwolves despite only making 40.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games — and tied for the worst offensive effort in their last 38 contests. They should shoot better tonight with the benefit of the few days off. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They get to host the first two games of this series where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Denver has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a divisional rival. And in their last 21 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total, they have failed to cover the point spread 16 times. Defense is a significant concern for this team after they allowed a Clippers team playing without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to post an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating of 120.0 or better in three of their four games last round. While Los Angeles ranked only 20th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the regular season, they ranked fifth of all 16 playoff teams with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 117.6 despite the injuries to Leonard and George. Now this team is going to encounter a culture shock with the uber-efficient Nuggets offense led by Nikola Jokic operating out of the post. And while the Suns have won 12 of their 13 games with Kevin Durant healthy and on the court since acquiring him, 11 of those games were against teams in the bottom half of the league. The lone loss was against a Clippers team playing their only playoff game with a healthy Leonard. Durant and Devin Booker averaged more than 40 minutes per game in Round One — and now they go on the road to the altitude in Denver. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games with the Total set in the 220s. Tellingly, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 6th with the Suns beating the Nuggets’ reserves by a 119-115 score. Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 opponents for some same-season revenge. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-23 |
Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 |
Top |
85-125 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (550) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (549) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (47-41) looks to close out this series tonight after their 116-99 loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (55-34) had lost four of five games before making this a 3-2 series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 40.2% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. And while they held Memphis to 44.4% shooting, that was still the worst defensive performance in their last four contests. After taking a 3-1 series lead, the Lakers bought themselves the luxury to take a game off — and they took their foot off the gas pedal when the Grizzlies started to pull away in the third quarter. But now is the game where LeBron James and Anthony Davis will step it up to avoid a Game Seven back in Memphis. As it is, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by double-digits. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games again teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Memphis played their best defensive game in their last ten contests by holding the Lakers to 40.2% shooting. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after a win by 10 or more points, they are just 1-5-1 ATS. Memphis has not been a good team on the road. They are getting outscored by -3.0 Points-Per-Game away from home which is bottom-ten in the league. They have lost 24 games on the road as an underdog with their last upset win away from home being on January 22nd. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. Considering that the Grizzlies are still relatively inexperienced in the playoffs, look for these woes on the road to continue. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (550) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-23 |
Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks |
Top |
128-120 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (537) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (538) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (60-27) has lost for the second time in the last three games in this series with their 119-117 upset loss as a 13-point underdog at home to the Hawks on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-44) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin as they hope to stave off elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston was cruising with a 111-99 lead with just 5:19 minutes left in the fourth quarter before complacency might have set in — and Atlanta’s Trae Young got scorching hot with his shooting to steal the game away for the Hawks. Boston only made 12 of their 38 (32%) shots from behind the arc in that game. The Celtics should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Atlanta nailed 19 of their 41 shots (46%) from behind the arc — so they may be due for some regression there. They make 35.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing at home. The inconsistent Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 64 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after winning three of their last four games. Atlanta pulled out Game Five despite Dejounte Murray being suspended for that game after bumping a referee — but there is a legitimate question regarding whether or not the Hawks are a better team without Murray. The offense seems to flow better when Young is the point guard and primary scorer. When Young and Murray are playing together on the court, Atlanta is getting outscored by -7.7 points per 100 possessions in this series. But when Young is on the court without Murray in this series, the Hawks are outscoring the Celtics by +2.0 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta gets Game Six at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home while also failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (537) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-23 |
Warriors v. Kings +2 |
Top |
123-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (534) plus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (533) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-36) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven games after their 126-125 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (46-40) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINT(S): De’Aaron Fox will attempt to play tonight after fracturing his left index finger. It would be foolish to expect his offensive game to remain at the high level that it has been so far in this series. But Sacramento has been a better team when playing at home — look for the role players to step up tonight. For example, Malik Monk has scored 25 Points-Per-Game for the Kings in the two games played in Sacramento in this series — as opposed to the 10 PPG he is scoring in the two games on the road. The Kings have gotten to the free throw line 61 times in their two home games in this series which is 20 more free throw attempts than what they have had in the two games in Golden State. Sacramento has also forced 35 turnovers in the two games at home as compared to their 22 forced turnovers in the two games on the road. The Kings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road to a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Sacramento has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games after a point spread win. They are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. The Warriors have lost 33 of their 43 games on the road this season. It is easy to blame the younger players for this lack of success away from home. While Jordan Poole has scored 19.5 PPG at home in this series, that productivity drops to 10.5 PPG in the two games on the road. But Stephen Curry has turned the ball over five times in both games in Sacramento in this series but only turned the ball over once in each of the two games at home. The Warriors rank third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they rank third to last in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road — and they are 15-38-1 ATS in their last 54 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Wednesday TNT Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (534) plus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-23 |
Wolves v. Nuggets -9 |
Top |
109-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (521) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (56-30) was on a four-game losing streak before their 114-108 loss on the road to the Timberwolves as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Minnesota (44-44) had lost four of their last five games before pulling the upset and making this a 3-1 series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver lacked focus in Game Four with the series seemingly in hand. They tried to flip the switch late in the game by going on a 13-0 run to force overtime — but they could not beat the Timberwolves desperate to get a win on their home court. Back on their home court, the Nuggets should take care of business and end this series tonight. As it is, they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after suffering an upset loss — and they have covered 15 of their last 22 games after losing on the road in their last game. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games at home after winning three of their last four games. They only made 44.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They return home to the Pepsi Center where they make 51.3% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Nuggets have won all three of their games in this series by at least nine points — so laying the wood tonight should not be a problem. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite. Anthony Edwards is carrying the T-Wolves right now having scored at least 36 points in three straight games while averaging 37 Points-Per-Game on 50% shooting over that span. But it is probably too much to ask that he continues to produce at that level — especially on the road. Karl-Anthony Towns is not helping out with his scoring average down to 16.3 PPG in this series after averaging 20.8 PPG in the regular season. Minnesota will be without Kyle Anderson tonight due to an eye injury — and this team was already undermanned due to the injuries to Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating a division rival in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after pulling off an upset win at home. Minnesota goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games with the Total set in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-23 |
Celtics -5.5 v. Hawks |
|
129-121 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (505) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-26) had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 130-122 upset loss on the road against the Hawks as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Atlanta (43-43) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston allowed the Hawks to nail 56.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 47 games. The Celtics should tighten things up tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston has still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Atlanta enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 23 games by nailing 56.0% of their shots. But the Hawks have then failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 63 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 54 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have still covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against the Hawks. 10* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with the Boston Celtics (505) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-23 |
Kings +7.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
125-126 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-35) has lost four of their last six games after a 114-97 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. Golden State (45-40) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin after winning for the fourth time in their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento only made 38.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. Despite making 36.5% of their shots from behind the arc for the year, they only converted 11 of their 47 shots (23%) from 3-point range on Thursday. They should make more of their 3s this afternoon. As it is, the Kings have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Pacific Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Sacramento has been a consistent team playing away from home after posting a 25-17 record on the road in the regular season. The fast pace the Kings play under head coach Mike Brown has helped them maintain their effectiveness in hostile environments. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Kings have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Golden State stepped up with Draymond Green suspended and Gary Payton II out with an illness by playing their best defensive game in their last 22 contests by holding the Kings to 38.0% shooting. But scoring remains an issue for the Warriors after they only made 40% of their shots while missing 34 of their 50 shots from behind the arc. Golden State is making only 32.8% of their 3-pointers in this series which is a problem when facing this Sacramento team that broke an NBA record in the regular season in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. With Green out, head coach Steve Kerr played Kevon Looney for heavy minutes with four perimeter players to spread out the offense and open up space in the lane. The dilemma Kerr now has is how to divide Green and Looney’s minutes in Game Four. Playing both of these players together is a problem since both are liabilities on the offensive end of the court. When both players are on the court in this series, the Warriors are scoring only 105.4 points per 100 possessions. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. And while the Warriors have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NBA Pacific Division Underdog of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-23 |
Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 |
Top |
101-111 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-40) were on a four-game winning streak before their 103-93 loss on the road to the Grizzlies as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (52-32) snapped a two-game losing streak by evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 41.2% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. While LeBron James and Rui Hachimura combined to score 48 points, the rest of the team only made 16 of their 50 shots. They also only made 56.2% of their shots at the rim. The Lakers should play better back at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last contest. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when trailing in a playoff series. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Ja Morant remains a game-time decision after taking part in the Grizzlies’ non-contact practice on Friday after missing Game Two with an injured hand. Memphis is still effective when they do not have Morant available since Tyrus Jones is so effective running the offense in his absence — so this good situation is not dependent on Morant not playing tonight. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-23 |
Nuggets v. Wolves +2.5 |
|
120-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (559) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-43) has lost three of their last four games after their 122-113 loss on the road against the Nuggets as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Denver (55-29) has won three games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. Denver may suffer a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory at home against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 13 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. The T-Wolves have not covered the point spread in either game in this series — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing three of their last four games. Minnesota returns home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when listed as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-23 |
Suns v. Clippers +7.5 |
|
129-124 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (552) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (551) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-39) was on a four-game winning streak before dropping Game Two of this series on the road to the Suns by a 123-109 score as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (46-38) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory to even this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard tonight after he was declared out with a right knee sprain. The line has adjusted with the Clippers now a home underdog in the 7-point range. Even without Leonard and Paul George, the depth on this Los Angeles roster and the energy they should bring to this game should help them keep it close (or pull the upset). They allowed the Suns to make 58.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive game of their season. They also only made 43.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Returning home the series is tied at 1-1, the Clippers should play better tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit setback. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while the Clippers have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 50 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after allowing their previous opponent to nail 55% or more of their shots. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 46 of their last 76 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after a win at home by 10 or more points. And while Game Two finished Over the 227.5-point total, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They played their best defensive game in their last five by holding the Clippers to 43.7% shooting — and their 58.8% field goal percentage was their best offensive performance all season. But what head coach Monty Williams is asking his team to do is contradict all the current conventional wisdom regarding how to win games in the NBA. Since acquiring Kevin Durant, Phoenix leads the league in shot attempts from midrange. Durant joined a team with Devin Booker and Chris Paul who thrived in taking and making midrange shots. The Suns have taken this to the extreme so far in this series as they averaging only 21.5 attempts from behind the arc. For comparison sakes, Atlanta was last in the NBA in the regular season by averaging 28.9 shots from 3-point land per game. Phoenix is also only taking 17% of their shots at the rim — below the Golden State’s 17.7% shooting percentage at the rim in the regular season which was the league-low. Granted, if the Suns make 40 of their 61 shots (66%) inside the arc again as they did on Tuesday, they will overwhelm the “math problem” of not taking more shots that count for three points or high-percentage shots at the rim. But will Torrey Craig continue his 7 of 12 (58.3%) shooting from 3-point range in this series now playing on the road? As it is, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: Clippers head coach Ty Lue is one of the best in the business — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (552) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-23 |
Heat v. Bucks -6 |
|
122-138 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (541) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-25) has now lost three games in a row after their 130-117 upset loss at home to the Heat as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (46-39) has won two in a row and six of their last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Giannis Antetokounmpo only played 11 minutes on Sunday before injuring his back which leaves him questionable to play tonight. I am assuming that Antetokounmpo is not playing — and even better if he does take the court. Everything went right for the Heat on Sunday as they made 15 of their 25 shots from behind the arc — and Miami’s 59.5% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage for the Bucks all season. Milwaukee should tighten things up on defense tonight while also shooting better than the 26% from behind the arc that they managed in Game One. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. And while Milwaukee has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Bucks have one of the deepest rosters in the league with plenty of players that can step up in the Greek Freak’s absence. Look for Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen, in particular, tonight. Holiday is scoring 22.6 Points-Per-Game with 9.5 Assists-Per-Game and 6.4 Rebounds-Per-Game when Antetokounmpo has been injured this season. Allen sports a 13.3 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 3.1 RPG average in the 13 games Antetokounmpo has missed this season. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games at home with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. They are also 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Miami had their best shooting effort in their last 14 games with that 59.5% shooting percentage. But the Heat have not covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Consistency has been one of the hobgoblins for this team all season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning two games in a row. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Miami-Milwaukee NBA-TV Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-23 |
Lakers v. Grizzlies +1 |
|
93-103 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (540) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (539) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (51-32) looks to rebound from their 128-112 upset loss at home as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (45-39) has won eight of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Ja Morant is questionable to play tonight after he aggravated what was already a sore right hand. But this Grizzlies team has gotten comfortable playing without Morant given his history of injuries and then his recent time spent away from the team last month given his off-the-court issues. While Morant thrives in the open court, Memphis is probably more effective in their half-court offense when he is not on the court. Tyrus Jones will get more playing time if Morant is out — and he is a steadying presence as a game manager. The Grizzlies need to play better on defense after ending the regular season by allowing Oklahoma City to make 50% of their shots before the Lakers nailed 53.3% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after losing on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when playing for the second time in five days. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Lakers had their best shooting performance in their last six games with their 53.3% shooting percentage — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Grizzlies in their last two meetings — but Memphis has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when playing with double-revenge. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Memphis TNT Special with the Memphis Grizzlies (540) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-23 |
Warriors v. Kings |
|
106-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (523) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (524) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (44-39) looks to rebound from their 126-123 loss on the road against the Kings in the opening game of this series. Sacramento (49-34) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Pacific Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Additionally, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have covered the point spread in 9 of those contests. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 playoff games when trailing in the series. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games at home after winning their previous game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 58 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with Golden State Warriors (523) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-16-23 |
Heat v. Bucks -9 |
Top |
130-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (512) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (511) in Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-24) begins the postseason on a two-game losing streak after their 121-105 loss at Toronto as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (45-39) survived the Play-In Tournament by beating Chicago by a 102-91 score as a 5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat did not look very impressive this week after getting upset at home to Atlanta on Thursday before pulling away from the Bulls on Friday. The long week will not help their chances this afternoon — and head coach Erik Spoelstra may eventually opt to rest his key players for Game Two with his group having a better chance to steal home-court advantage in this series. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a win at home. Miami has won five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Milwaukee has had the luxury of resting their key players for the last two weeks — and while rust is a concern, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing no more than five games in the last 14 days. Head coach Mike Budenholzer’s team should play fast and full of energy. The Bucks have not covered the point spread in their previous two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a point spread victory while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games with the Total set in the 220s. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoffs Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (512) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-23 |
Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies |
|
128-112 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (515) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (516) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-39) has won three games in a row — and 10 of their last 12 games — after their 108-102 victory against Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Memphis (51-31) has lost two of their last three games — and four of their last seven — after their 115-100 loss at Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles found their rhythm after the trade deadline by improving the supporting cast around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers boast the best defense in the NBA since the trade deadline. Their size gives them an advantage on most nights. They are also third in the NBA since the trade deadline in free throw rate. They only made 41.3% of their shots against the Timberwolves which was the worst shooting mark in their last 13 games. But their defense was the difference in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. And Los Angeles will come into this game rested having played only once since Sunday — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for just the second time in seven days. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Memphis may be rusty from the week off — they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games when playing with three or more days of rest. The Grizzlies might have played their best ball in the first half of the season. Since the trade deadline, Memphis ranks just 17th in the league in defense. Back at home, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 220s — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. The Lakers have the experience edge — expect a close opening game between these two teams with the value being in taking the points. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Memphis ABC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Lakers (515) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-23 |
Warriors +1.5 v. Kings |
|
123-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (507) plus the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (508) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (44-38) concluded the regular season winning three games in a row — and five of their last six games — after a 157-101 victory at Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (48-34) has lost three games in a row — and four of their last five games — after their 109-95 upset loss at Denver as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINT(S): Golden State has been flipping the proverbial switch in preparation for the postseason all month. Their three-game winning streak was all victories by 11 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after winning two or more games in a row by double-digits. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Head coach Steve Kerr made a conscious effort to play more of his younger players this season to rest his core group while getting those players more experience. I suspect that is one of the reasons why the Warriors' record on the road was only 11-30 straight-up. But the playoffs are a different story — and the reigning NBA champions have a 21-3 straight-up record in Game Ones in an NBA Series under Kerr. Golden State’s metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since Stephen Curry only played in 55 games. The Warriors also get back Andrew Wiggins for this game after playing only 37 games as he took a leave from the team to attend to some family matters. While Wiggins may need some time to shake off some rusty with his shooting, he is a do-it-all player for the team who should make an immediate positive impact for the team. Sacramento embarks on their first postseason campaign since 2006 — and nerves may play a role in front of their anxious home fans. As it is, the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento may have broken an NBA record for Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but their struggles on defense may catch up with them now. They ranked 25th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage that ranked 26th in the NBA. They will likely engage in the style of play in which this Warriors’ team thrives. Golden State has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Golden State-Sacramento ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (507) plus the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-23 |
Hawks v. Celtics -9.5 |
|
99-112 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (503) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-25) closed out their regular season winning five of six games — and eight of their last ten contests — after a 120-114 win against Atlanta as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (42-41) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-105 upset win at Miami as a 5.5-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hawks held the Heat to just 42.9% shooting on Tuesday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games — but that might have more to do with the listless shooting from Miami than the quality of Atlanta’s defense. A letdown is likely as the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset win in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three days of rest. The Hawks stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games in the first round of the NBA playoffs. And in their last 6 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home after winning at least four of their last five games. They host the first two games of this series where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. They are also 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against the Hawks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against Atlanta on their home court. 20* NBA Atlanta-Boston ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-23 |
Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves |
|
95-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (571) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (41-42) is on a three-game winning streak after their 123-118 upset win at New Orleans as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Minnesota had their three-game winning streak snapped in their 108-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The winner of this game advances to the Quarterfinals of the Western Conference playoffs to play Denver.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City is playing with house money since they were expected to tank for (slightly) better odds to win the draft lottery to gain the right to pick Victor Wembanyama. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two games in a row. This team has been capable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games as an underdog getting up to six points. Minnesota held the Lakers to just a 41.3% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing with two days of rest. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The T-Wolves have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games at home when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City will be looking to avenge a 112-110 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. The Thunder have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in Minnesota against the Timberwolves. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (571) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-23 |
Bulls v. Heat -5 |
Top |
91-102 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (570) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (569) in the NBA Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (44-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 116-105 upset loss to Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Chicago (41-42) has won three games in a row after their 109-105 upset win at Toronto as a 6.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The winner of this game advances to play Milwaukee in Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami lacked energy on Tuesday against a Hawks team that they had beaten in seven of their previous nine matchups. In hindsight, it looked like they took Atlanta for granted — especially with a game in hand tonight against the Bulls-Raptors winner the next night. The Heat got out-rebounded by a 63-39 margin which is indicative of their lack of work ethic in that game. Jimmy Butler only made six of his 19 shots from the field as he threw up a bad bunny after bad bunny that rattled off the rim. Miami only made 42.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. The Heat have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while Miami started slow against the Hawks and went into halftime trailing by 15 points, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after going into halftime with a deficit of 15 or more points. They get to host this single-elimination game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Chicago pulled off a 19-point comeback to upset the Raptors on Wednesday. While they have covered the point spread in all three of their current three-game winning streak, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Bulls have only allowed 186 combined points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago swept all three games against the Heat this season with the last two meetings being by double-digits — so this dynamic should remove any chance of Miami taking this team for granted. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (570) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-12-23 |
Thunder v. Pelicans -5 |
Top |
123-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (42-40) ended the regular season with a 113-108 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Oklahoma City (40-42) has won two games in a row with a 115-100 victory against Memphis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Minnesota to play for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs — and the loser has their season end tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has an experience edge in this game after competing in the Play-In Tournament last season and earning the eighth seed and some valuable playoff experience. Zion Williamson remains out for this team — but when the Pelicans have a healthy Brandon Ingram to complement the veteran C.J. McCollum, this becomes a very formidable team. Ingram has missed 37 games this season — but they have won nine of their last twelve games with him back on the court to close out the regular season. Not only is that the fourth-best record in the NBA over that span, but New Orleans boasts the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the league in their last 12 games. Overall, the Pelicans rank sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with head coach Willie Green focusing on that end of the court with his group once again learning to live life without a healthy Williamson. New Orleans only made 44.4% of their shots on Sunday against the Timberwolves -- their most shooting effort in their last three contests — while making only 3 of their 21 shots (14.3%) of their shots from bending the arc. But the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Ingram was spectacular in the losing effort by scoring 42 points on 16 of 28 shooting. They get to play this game at home where they are 4-1-1 ATS in their 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. We should not read too much into the Thunder’s victory on Sunday against a Grizzlies team locked into the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs — but they did make 50% of their shots which was the best shooting in their last six games. And by holding Oklahoma City to just 43.5% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last 13 contests. But the Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. Many observers predicted that this team would spend the season tanking to improve their draft prospects — so the campaign has been a surprising success. But this is a very young group with an average age on the roster of 22.6 which is three years younger than the average age for the Pelicans roster. Charlotte has demonstrated recently that young teams can quickly get overwhelmed in this Play-In Tournament. Second-chance scoring opportunities should be an area where New Orleans will hold an edge tonight. The Thunder are the third-worst defensive rebounding team in the league — and the Pelicans are tenth in the NBA by pulling down 27.7% of their missed shots. Oklahoma City was much better at home where they owned a 24-17 record — but they have a 16-25 record on the road while scoring -3.4 fewer Points-Per-Game and making 45.0% of their shots as opposed to their 46.6% shooting percentage for the season. The Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won three of the four meetings between these two teams but lost the last encounter between these squads in a 110-96 upset loss as a 2-point home favorite on March 11th. Ingram did not play in that game while both Jonas Valuncianas and Herbert Jones played less than 20 minutes in the game. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games in April. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-11-23 |
Hawks v. Heat -4.5 |
Top |
116-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). THE SITUATION: Miami (44-38) has won four of their last five games after their 123-110 win against Orlando as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (41-41) enters the postseason having lost two games in a row after their 120-114 loss at Boston as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami has been a disappointment this season by making only 34.4% of their 3-pointers. But in their last five games, they are nailing 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc which has helped them post an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 123.4. The Heat’s rediscovery of their shooting touch this month — just in time for the playoffs — has helped them play five straight Overs which is a good sign for them. Miami has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing four or more Overs in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing five straight Overs. The Heat get to host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Miami loves playing the Hawks — especially since acquiring Jimmy Butler. The Heat have won three of the four meetings between these two teams this season after beating them in the playoffs in five games last season. Not only do they have a 14-6 straight-up record against them in their 20 games against Atlanta with Butler on the team, but they have also covered the point spread in 12 of those games. The numbers are even starker when Miami is playing at home — they have won ten of their last eleven games when hosting the Hawks while covering the point spread in 8 of those games. The Heat also thrive in close games. They have played 54 games this season defined as “clutch” situations where the score was within five points with five minutes to go. They have won 32 of these games while posting the second-best Adjusted Net Efficiency rating in the NBA in those situations. Atlanta, on the other hand, ranks second-to-last in Adjusted Net Efficiency in clutch time this season — so the Heat have a good chance to pull away in this game late if the score is close. We should not read much in their six-point loss at Boston on Sunday since both teams were resting starters — but their 136-131 loss at home to Philadelphia on Friday is troubling since the Hawks played all their starters while the 76ers rested their top-six rotation players. Miami’s switching defense usually frustrates Trae Young who only scored 15.4 Points-Per-Game with a 32% shooting percentage and an 18% mark from behind the arc in their playoff series last year — way down from his 26.2 PPG scoring average last year. In their four games this season, Young has made only 36% of his shot with an ugly 25% clip from behind the arc. Atlanta has struggled this season which eventually led to the firing of head coach Nate McMillan. New head coach Quin Snyder probably needs an entire off-season to implement his system with this team. They have only gone 7-8 in their last 15 regular season games with the problem continuing to be on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks rank 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with a 115.4 mark — and that number worsens to 117.4 when on the road. In their last 15 games, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency has been even worse at 118.5, the sixth-worst mark in the league during that stretch. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 220s — and they are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 road games against teams with a winning percentage at home of 60% or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against the Heat in Miami. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against winning teams.
FINAL TAKE: These teams last played on March 6th with the Heat winning at home by a 130-128 score to register their second straight victory against the Hawks. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with double revenge. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-05-23 |
Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5.5 |
|
131-138 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 0 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (567). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (40-39) was on a two-game winning streak before their 121-103 upset loss at home to Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite last night. Memphis (50-29) has split their last four games after a 119-109 win against Portland as an 18.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans shot only 44.0% from the field last night which was the lowest-shooting effort in their last ten games. They also allowed the Kings to make 50.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last three contests. < b>The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Memphis made 48.3% of their shots last night which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Ja Morant and Luke Kennard combined for 43 points against the Trail Blazers but both are doubtful to play tonight due to small injuries that head coach Taylor Jenkins does not want to risk when playing tonight’s game without rest. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher when playing at home. Memphis has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans is currently in seventh place in the Western Conference — and they are one game behind the Los Angeles Lakers for sixth place in the conference which avoids the play-in tournament and gives them plenty of motivation. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis is undermanned tonight while sitting comfortably two games ahead of the Kings for second place in the conference with three games left in the regular season. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Pelicans (568) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-02-23 |
Mavs v. Hawks -3 |
|
130-132 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (518) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (517). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (38-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 124-107 upset loss at Baltimore as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Dallas (37-41) has lost six of their last seven games after their 129-122 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas made 61% of their shots on Friday which was their best shooting effort of the season. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Atlanta allowed the Nets to make 55.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Hawks have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not winning more than 40% or their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Mavericks on their home court. 8* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Atlanta Hawks (518) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-23 |
Jazz -2.5 v. Spurs |
|
128-117 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (539) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (540). THE SITUATION: Utah (35-40) has lost four straight games after their 117-103 loss to Phoenix as an 8-point underdog on Monday. San Antonio (19-56) has lost four in a row after their 137-93 loss at Boston as a 16.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent losing streak, Utah is only 1 1/2 games out of the play-in tournament in the Western Conference. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after a point spread loss. The Spurs’ four-game losing streak has involved defeats by 12 or more points each time — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after losing two or more games in a row by double-digits. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not covering the points pad in four or more games in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio may be just what the doctor ordered for this Jazz team still playing hard for head coach Will Hardy. Utah will want to avenge a 102-94 loss at home to the Spurs on February 28th. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Utah Jazz (539) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-23 |
Bulls v. Clippers -4.5 |
Top |
112-124 |
Win
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100 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
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At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (516) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (515). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (39-36) has lost two of their last three games after their 131-110 upset loss to New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (36-38) has won two games in a row and five of their last six games after their 118-108 upset loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles allowed the Pelicans to make 53.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. But the Clippers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. This team is without Paul George for the next few weeks after he injured his ankle — but they still have a healthy Kawhi Leonard who is playing at a top level right now. The Clippers have lost seven in a row and fourteen of their last seventeen games when Leonard is not playing. Chicago is playing better basketball since acquiring Patrick Beverley — they crushed Portland on the road by a 124-96 win in their previous game before their upset win against the Lakers. But the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a row by ten or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay in Los Angeles having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road against teams from the Western Conference.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and the Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (516) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-20-23 |
Bulls v. 76ers -8.5 |
|
109-105 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (560) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (559). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (48-22) has won eight games in a row with their 141-121 win at Indiana as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (33-37) has won four of their last five games with their 113-99 upset victory against Miami as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia took care of business against the Pacers despite allowing them to make 51.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The 76ers have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory. Philly returns home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Chicago made 56.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. But the Bulls are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They go back on the road where they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers will be looking to avenge a 126-112 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite on January 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against the Bulls — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against them when hosting them in Philadelphia. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (560) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-23 |
Jazz +9 v. Heat |
|
115-119 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (551) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (552). THE SITUATION: Utah (33-35) has erased a four-game losing streak with the two victories in a row after a 119-111 win at Charlotte as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Miami (36-33) has lost two of their last three games after a 126-114 loss at Orlando as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ PLUS THE POINTS: The Heat have been overvalued by the betting market all season. They rank just 26th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — with the biggest problem being that they can’t make their 3-pointers. After making 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc last season, they are only shooting 33.7% from 3-point range this season. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss by 10 or more points. The Heat return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Miami is not a reliable favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Utah may have been sellers at the trade deadline but they continue to play hard. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after losing four or five of their last six contests. The Jazz have a 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They will be without Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton who are dealing with injuries — but both players did not play in either game of their two-game winning streak. Utah has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Utah will be looking to avenge a 126-123 upset loss at home to the Heat as a 4-point favorite on December 31st — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 opportunities for revenge. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (551) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-12-23 |
Wizards v. 76ers -7.5 |
|
93-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (538) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (537). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (44-22) has won four games in a row after their 120-119 win against Portland as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday. Washington (31-36) has lost four of their last five games after their 114-107 loss to Atlanta as a 2-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia nailed 51.8% of their shots on Friday which was the fifth straight game where they made at least 49.4% of their shots. Philadelphia is making 53.4% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 128.6 Points-Per-Game. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after making 47% or more of their shots in three straight games. They have all covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games. Washington lost to Atlanta by seven points despite holding them to a 44.2% shooting percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last nine games. The Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while Washington lost both their games at home to the Hawks this week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row on their home court. The Wizards have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will be motivated to avenge a 116-111 loss at Washington as a 4.5-point favorite on December 27th. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (538) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-26-23 |
Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 |
Top |
93-118 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (558) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (557). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (38-25) looks to snap a three-game losing streak after a 136-119 loss at Atlanta as a 1-point underdog on Friday. Toronto (30-31) has won four in a row and seven of their last eight contests after a 95-91 victory at Detroit yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland was riding a seven-game winning and was one of the hottest teams in the NBA before a loss at Philadelphia heading into the All-Star Break. But the Cavs have been slugging coming back out of the break. They should end their slide tonight as they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing three of their last four games. They only shot 45.5% from the field on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But now Cleveland returns home where they are nailing 49.4% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games on their home court. The Cavs have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 210 to the 219.5-point range. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Toronto held the Pistons to just 40.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. The Raptors have played their two games out of the break Under the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six games. This is just their fourth game since February 14th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games on the road when it is not more than their fourth game in ten days. Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in Cleveland against the Cavaliers. They did beat the Cavs in their last meeting back on December 23rd by a 118-107 score as a 5-point road dog — but Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to avenge a loss on their home court. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the Cleveland Cavaliers (558) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (557). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-23 |
Nuggets v. Cavs -2 |
|
115-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (506) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (505). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (38-23) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 118-112 loss at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on February 15th. Denver (41-18) has won seven of their last nine games after a 118-109 win against Dallas as a 5-point favorite last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland should respond with a strong effort coming out of the All-Star Break after their disappointing performance against the 76ers. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road in their previous contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Cleveland returns home where they have a dominant 25-6 record with a +8.8 net point differential. They are making 49.5% of their shots on their home court which is generating 113.6 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Denver made 57.1% of their shots against the Mavericks last week which was the third straight game where they made at least 50.5% of their shots. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after shooting 50% or better from the field in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after nailing 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. They go back on the road where they are just 14-14 this season — and they have a -4.0 net PPG differential in those 28 games away from home. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 6th when the Nuggets beat the Cavaliers by a 121-108 score. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Cleveland Cavaliers (506) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-06-23 |
Cavs v. Wizards +1.5 |
|
114-91 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (504) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (503). THE SITUATION: Washington (24-28) has lost two games in a row after their 125-123 upset loss at Brooklyn as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Cleveland (33-22) has won two in a row after their 122-103 win at Indiana as a 4-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 17 games when playing without a day of rest, they are 5-11-1 ATS. The Cavaliers stay on the road where they are just 11-16 this season as compared to their 22-6 record on their home court. The Cavaliers are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games on the road with the Total set at 220 or higher. Washington was on a six-game winning streak while playing some of the best basketball in the league. At that point, they ranked 4th in the NBA in Net Adjusted Efficiency in their last 15 games. But the Trail Blazers then got upset by Portland before suffering their second-straight upset loss to the Nets on Saturday. The Wizards have covered the point spread in 5 o their last 8 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the third time in four games. Furthermore, Washington has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They will be without Kyle Kuzma tonight as he deals with an ankle sprain — and Bradley Beal is questionable with a foot injury. The Wizards still have Kristaps Porzingis tonight — and they have a 12-11 record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more points per game. Cleveland is outscoring their opponents by +4.9 PPG — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Washington Wizards (504) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-05-23 |
Kings -1.5 v. Pelicans |
|
104-136 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (575) minus the point(s) versus New Orleans Pelicans (576). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-22) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 107-104 upset loss at Indiana as a 1-point favorite on Friday. New Orleans (26-27) ended their ten-game losing streak with their 131-126 victory against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Sacramento shot only 43.0% from the field against the Pacers which was the worst shooting effort in their last 16 contests. The Kings are still second in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Rating this season — and they maintain that ranking in their last 15 games despite their subpar shooting efforts against Indiana. Sacramento has bounced back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss in their last game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when favored. They will be playing with De’Aron Fox but they still have a balanced team led by Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes. New Orleans is dealing with even more attrition for this game. Zion Williamson remains out with a hamstring injury. Jonas Valuncianus is out with a knee injury. Furthermore, Brandon Ingram is out tonight with his toe injury after scoring 35 points in his 32:19 minutes last night. The Pelicans shot 52% from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests. But New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played without a day of rest. They stat at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 24 games as an underdog, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and the Kings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Sacramento Kings (575) minus the point(s) versus New Orleans Pelicans (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-02-23 |
Grizzlies v. Cavs -5.5 |
|
113-128 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (522) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (521). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (31-22) has lost two of their last three games after their 100-97 upset loss to Miami as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (32-19) has lost six of their last seven games after a 122-112 upset loss to Portland as a 5.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland should bounce back with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Cavaliers struggled with their shooting on Tuesday. Not only did they make only 11 of their 40 (27.5%) of their shots from behind the arc, they hit just 6 of their 12 (50%) free throws. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 100 points in their last contest. Cleveland is tough to beat at home despite the results from two nights ago. They have a 21-6 record on their home court with a +8.0 net point differential. They are making 49.4% of their shots at home which is helping them generate 113.6 Points-Per-Game. The Cavs have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Grizzlies got blasted by a 38-22 score in the fourth quarter last night — and now they are playing without a day of rest. This team misses Steven Adams in the middle — and it is impacting them on both ends of the court. In their last four games, since Adams suffered his knee injury, Memphis has seen their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rise to 113.0 as compared to their 109.9 clip for the season. And while they have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 113.9 for the season, their mark has lowered to 108.4 in their last seven games with their offense being dragged down by a low 28.9% shooting clip from behind the arc. The Grizzlies have a -34 net point differential playing without Adams in their last four games — and now they will probably be without Jaren Jackson, Jr. to a thigh injury and Danny Green to load management for this game. Memphis has not been near as effective on the road as they have been in the past since they drafted Ja Morant. They are only 11-15 away from home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning home record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 115-114 loss at Memphis on January 18th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. The Grizzlies had Adams in that contest to help defend the interior — and his absence will hurt against this Cavaliers team that scores 51.0 PPG in the paint. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (522) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-23 |
Thunder -6 v. Rockets |
|
106-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (513) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (514). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (24-26) has lost two of their last three games after their 128-120 loss to Golden State as a 5-point underdog on Monday. Houston (12-38) snapped a two-game losing streak in a 117-114 upset win at Detroit as a 4-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: The preseason expectations for Oklahoma City was that they would be in the mix to be tanking for the right to draft the french superstar Victor Wembanyama. Instead, they are in the thick of the Western Conference playoff mix. Rookie Josh Gibley has emerged as a very good player for this team — and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a legitimate All-Star. The Thunder play hard almost every night (a rarity in the NBA) with a bruising style of play that wears down their opponents. They are just behind Denver this month for the best Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin in the league. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are 42-19-1 ATS in their last 62 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points as the favorite. Houston has only won two games in their last 21 games as they are firmly in the tanking process. They are also undermanned with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter, Jr. out tonight with injuries. The Rockets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with at least three days between games. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 home games as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder will be motivated to avenge a 118-105 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favorite on November 26th — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (513) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-23 |
Cavs v. Thunder -1 |
Top |
100-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the point(s) versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (23-25) has lost two of their last three games after a 137-133 loss to Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Cleveland (30-20) has won two of their last three games after their 113-95 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma City allowed the Hawks to make 59.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. But the Thunder have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last contest. And they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when playing their second game in five days. While Oklahoma City was considered one of the many teams who would tank the season to help their chances of winning the NBA draft lottery to then select the phenom Victor Wembanyama, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been simply too good leading this team. In their last 13 games, the Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in Net Rating. They have a 14-10 record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They are also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Cleveland completes a three-game road trip that started on Tuesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. They are just 10-15 on the road — and they are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games on the road. They are also 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. The Cavaliers finish their road trip undermanned with Ricky Rubio taking the night off for load management and Kevin Love being out with a back injury. Donovan Mitchell is also listed as doubtful with a groin.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder will be looking to avenge a 110-102 loss at Cleveland on December 10th — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the point(s) versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-23 |
Nuggets -1 v. Pelicans |
Top |
99-98 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (549) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (550). THE SITUATION: Denver (33-14) had their nine-game winning streak snapped in a 101-99 upset loss against Oklahoma City as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (26-21) has lost four games in a row after their 100-96 loss at Miami as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINT(S): Denver gets back Nikola Jokic who has been confirmed to be returning to action tonight after missing the last two games to a hamstring injury. Without Jokic on Sunday against the Thunder, the Nuggets only made 43.9% of their shots which was the lowest shooting effort in their last 32 games. Denver is an elite offensive team — especially with Jokic leading the way — they rank 2nd in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss to a Northwest Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Denver’s play on the other end of the court has been their biggest weakness — but don’t look now but head coach Michael Malone has this group playing the 6th best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 15 games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans held the Heat to just a 43.7% shooting percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. New Orleans is dealing with their share of injuries as well with both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram on the shelf. The Pelicans have a 7-6 record when playing without both of these players which is a testament to C.J. McCollum's talent and head coach Willie Greene’s commitment to defense. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to New Orleans to play the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (549) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-23 |
Hornets v. Jazz -7.5 |
|
102-120 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (538) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (537). THE SITUATION: Utah (24-25) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 117-106 upset loss to Brooklyn as a 5-point favorite on Friday. Charlotte (13-34) has won two games in a row after their 122-118 win at Atlanta as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah only made 42.0% of their shots against the Nets which was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 games. They also allowed Brooklyn to nail 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 47 of their last 73 games after an upset loss a home when they were favored — and they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. Utah has a 15-9 record at home where they have a +4.6 net Points-Per-Game differential. They make 48.1% of their shots which has them generating 120.6 PPG. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Charlotte nailed 50.6% of their shots against the Hawks which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. But the Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. Charlotte’s previous game was a 122-117 win in Houston on Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after winning their previous two games by six points or less. The Hornets were on a five-game losing streak before winning these last two contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where they have an 8-18 record with a -5.2 net PPG differential. They allow their home hosts to make 48.6% of their shots which has resulted in these home teams scoring 120.1 PPG. Charlotte is also dealing with some injuries with LaMelo Ball being questionable with an ankle injury and Cody Martin being doubtful with a foot injury. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in Utah against the Jazz. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with Utah Jazz (538) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-10-23 |
Thunder +2.5 v. Heat |
|
111-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (568). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (18-22) has won two in a row and three of their last four games after a 120-109 victory against Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (21-20) has lost two of their last three games after a 102-101 loss to Brooklyn as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: The Heat are a M*A*S*H* unit right now with a host of injuries. The biggest loss for this team is Bam Adebayo who is out with a wrist injury. Miami scores -2.2 points per 100 possessions without Adebayo on the court — and they allow +1.4 points per 100 possessions without him. Adebayo is the foundation for what this team wants to do on both ends of the court — and they are already struggling to score points this season as they rank 24th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This team is missing several other important players including Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson among others. The Heat are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a point-spread win. They stay at home where they are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games when favored. Oklahoma City should be energized tonight as they play on national television for the first time since September 2020 (the COVID year when NBA teams played in the bubble). This could be a national coming-out party for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a double-digit victory — and they are a decisive 45-22-3 ATS in their last 80 games after a point spread win. Oklahoma City goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams from the Eastern Conference. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City looks to avenge a 110-108 loss at home to the Heat on December 14th when they rallied from a 21-point 2nd quarter deficit to just fall short of winning that game as a 2.5-point underdog. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 8 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Heat in Miami. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-22 |
Nuggets v. Kings +4 |
|
113-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (532) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (531). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (17-14) has lost two of their last three games after their 125-111 upset loss to Washington as an 8-point favorite on Friday. Denver (21-11) has won four games in a row -- and seven of their last eight — with their 128-125 win in overtime against Phoenix as a 4-point favorite on Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento was flat on Friday night as they probably looking ahead to getting a few days off for the holidays. They only made 44.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Even worse, they allowed the Wizards to nail 55.7% of their shots in what was the defensive effort of the season. The Kings should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. Furthermore, Sacramento has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after an upset loss this season. Head coach Mike Brown is doing a great job with this team — but he needs to get his group to reinvest their efforts on defense after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Kings have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after their last opponent shot 55% or better from the field. They will be without Domantas Sabonis tonight who is dealing with a thumb injury — but they still have De’Aaron Fox and the role players are better when playing at home. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog getting up to six points. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning two or more in a row. Now after completing a four-game home stand, Denver goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against the Kings — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Kings in Sacramento. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Sacramento Kings (532) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-22 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors +8 |
Top |
109-123 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (594) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (593). THE SITUATION: Golden State (15-18) has lost two straight games — and five of their last six — after their 143-113 loss at Brooklyn as an 11.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (20-11) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 125-100 win at Phoenix as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State head coach Steve Kerr called out his team for their bad play after allowing the Nets to make 64.3% of their shots on Wednesday. That was the worst defensive effort for the defending NBA champions all season. The team remains without the injured Stephen Curry — but his absence does not come close to explaining this poor effort against Brooklyn. Klay Thompson got the night off in that game — and he will be back on the court tonight. The Warriors have been inconsistent from night to night — but after that bad effort and with this game on at the prestigious prime-time Christmas Day slot, expect a spirited effort from this proud group even without Curry. Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by 10 or more points. The extra days off will help — as will returning home after playing their last six games on the road. The Warriors are a disaster on the road where they are just 3-16 — but they have a 12-2 record back on their home court. Granted, Curry’s 45% shooting percentage from behind the arc on their home court plays a role in Golden State’s better play at home, but the team’s young players perform much better in their friendly and familiar confines. The Warriors are 48-23-2 ATS in their last 73 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. And while the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 home games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Memphis finishes up their four-game road trip for this contest. While the Grizzlies have a 13-2 record at home, they are just 7-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by -3.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to shoot 47.0% from the field. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Additionally, the Grizzlies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played at Golden State against the Warriors. Even without Curry and the injured Andre Wiggins, the reigning champions should bring their A-Game tonight. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (594) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (593). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-22 |
Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
107-120 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (575) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (576). THE SITUATION: Portland (17-15) has lost three of their last four games after a 101-98 upset loss at Oklahoma City as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (19-11) has won two straight games and five of their last six contests after their 105-91 win against Memphis as a 1-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has been upset twice this week in Oklahoma City on Monday and Wednesday — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road playing their third game in five days. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 110 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing their last game Under the Total with that game finishing far below the 236-point total. We had the Blazers on Wednesday and recognized they the team had been playing better with star Damian Lillard back from injury. Lillard only scored 16 points on Wednesday — but in his previous seven games this month, Lillard was scoring 32.6 Points-Per-Game. He was leading a scoring attack that is nailing 50.9% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 119.8 PPG before their flat effort against the Thunder — but they were still covering the point spread at the 2:29 minute mark of the fourth quarter. Against fellow Northwest Division opponents, Portland is still making 50.8% of their shots and scoring 120.0 PPG. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting six points or less. Portland has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. And while the Nuggets raced out to a 55-40 halftime lead against the Grizzlies on Tuesday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after taking a 15-point or better lead into halftime. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last contest. Denver continues to struggle with their play on defense despite their strong effort against Memphis — they allow their opponents to make 48.7% of their shots which results in them giving up 114.0 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points . They may be without Jamal Murray tonight who is questionable with an ankle injury. But Michael Porter, Jr. may return to the court after missing time with a heel injury — although he may need some time to get rid of the rust. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when Porter returns to the court after missing the prior game which was a victory for Denver.
FINAL TAKE: Portland will be looking to avenge their 121-120 loss at home to the Nuggets in a heartbreaker on December 8th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Underdog of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (575) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-22 |
Blazers -3.5 v. Thunder |
|
98-101 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (541) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (542). THE SITUATION: Portland (17-14) has lost two of their last three games after a 123-121 upset loss at Oklahoma City as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Oklahoma City (13-18) has pulled off two straight upset victories after their win to begin the week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland has had two days in Oklahoma City to stew about that loss to the Thunder. This is the fifth game in a seven-game road trip — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their third game on the road in a five-game stretch. The Blazers have been playing better with star Damian Lillard back from injury. In his last seven games this month, Lillard is scoring 32.6 Points-Per-Game. He is leading a scoring attack that is nailing 50.9% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 119.8 PPG. Against fellow Northwest Division opponents, Portland is making 51.0% of their shots and scoring 123.1 PPG. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record at home. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by three points or less against a divisional rival. The Thunder continue to defy expectations by covering the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Oklahoma City gets this rematch at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Thunder allow Northwest Division rivals to make 49.5% of their shots which translates into 120.9 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 opportunities for revenge against an opponent that scored 110 or more points against them. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (541) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-22 |
Bucks v. Cavs -2 |
|
106-114 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (530) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (529). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (21-11) has won four games in a row after their 122-99 victory against Utah as a 7-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (22-8) has won two games in a row after their 128-119 upset win at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. They are also 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point-spread win. The Cavaliers play their fourth game at home during their six-game home stand having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their two previous games at home. Cleveland is 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games on their home court — and they are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset win — and they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win. They are also 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point-spread victory. The Bucks did make 55.6% of their shots against the Pelicans which was the best shooting mark in their last 11 contests — but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. That effort came on the heels of them making 53.3% of their shots in their previous game against Utah — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after shooting 50% or better in two straight games. While the Cavaliers have only been on one airplane flight in the last ten days amidst their home stand, the Bucks are racking up their frequent flyer miles during that span. Since December 11th, Milwaukee has flown to Houston -- then back home -- then to Memphis -- then back home before going south to New Orleans and now back up to Cleveland for this contest. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks trail the Cavaliers in Adjusted Net Rating this season with their +3.7 mark behind Cleveland’s league-leading +6.3 clip. Granted, Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton has missed much of the season — but Cleveland has been without Jarrett Allen for much of the year. Middleton is out again tonight with his knee issues. Allen is in good form — the Cavs hold their opponents to just a 22.2% rebounding mark on the offensive glass with Allen on the court. Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 117-102 loss in Milwaukee on November 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (530) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-22 |
Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers |
|
122-118 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (574). THE SITUATION: Boston (21-7) looks to snap a two-game losing streak after their 113-93 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 4.5-point favorite last night. Los Angeles (11-15) ended a three-game losing streak with their 124-117 win at Detroit as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston may have been still shaken up from losing to Golden State on Saturday as they failed to earn a small measure of revenge against a Warriors team that beat them in the NBA Finals. The Clippers are a tough match-up for them because of all the quality wing defenders they can throw at Jayson Tatum — especially with Kawhi Leonard back on the floor for them. But the Lakers are not nearly as strong a defensive team as the Warriors or Clippers. The Celtics have bounced back to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. And while Boston has suffered upset losses in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. The Celtics only shot 43.4% from the field last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. They remain the top offense in the league scoring at a historic 119.7 points per 100 possession rate. They stay on the road where they are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They have been without Al Horford in the last four games — and they miss the size and intangibles he brings to the floor as a veteran leader. But the Lakers lack the size — outside of Anthony Davis — to take advantage of the absent Horford. Too often, Davis gets lulled into playing on the perimeter rather than playing the traditional center role for the Lakers. Los Angeles nailed 54.8% of their shots against the defensively-deprived Pistons — that was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 59 games after a straight-up win. Now after being on the road since December 2nd, they return home to play for the first time since November 30th. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after being on the road for seven or more days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Lakers are playing better basketball with Davis showing more effort and Russell Westbrook embracing a role off the bench leading the second unit — but this team has still failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Five of their last nine victories have been against San Antonio (three) and Detroit (two). Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against the Lakers. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-22 |
Warriors v. Bucks -2.5 |
|
111-128 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (568) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (567). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (19-7) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 97-92 upset loss at Houston as a 10-point favorite. Golden State (14-13) ended a two-game losing streak with a 123-107 upset win at home against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee comes off their worst shooting performance of the season as they made only 36.7% of their shots which was a season-low while making only 28% of their 3-pointers. But the Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Now they return home where they are making 47.7% of the shots from the field. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams not winning at least 40% of their games on the road. The Bucks are slumping a bit on offense — but their defensive effort remains outstanding as they have held their last five opponents to 101.6 Points-Per-Game on a 42.6% shooting percentage. Milwaukee should step up tonight on national television against the reigning NBA champions. They are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Golden State held the Celtics to just 43.7% shooing which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win. Golden State demonstrated their championship potential against the Celtics — but we have seen these glimpses from them before this year before they took a step back to the lackluster selves they have demonstrated too often this season. The Warriors had won five of six games at the end of last month — but then they hosted an Indiana team playing without Tyrese Halliburton and Myles Turner and Stephen Curry played his worst game of the season in an 8-point loss as an 11-point favorite. Now Golden State begins a six-game road trip where they are just 2-10 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games away from home. Going into last week (before their loss at Utah), the Warriors were just 15th in the league in Adjusted Offense Efficiency on the road -- but they were even worse on the other end of the court where they ranked second-to-last in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Before that Jazz game (please forgive me for not updating the data yet), Golden State was allowing -12.8 points per 100 possessions more when on the road versus their defensive numbers at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors are catching the Bucks at the wrong time tonight after their effort against the Rockets. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Golden State-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (568) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-22 |
Wizards v. Pacers -4 |
|
111-121 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (506) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (505). THE SITUATION: Indiana (13-16) has lost four of their last five games after their 121-115 loss at Minnesota as a 5-point underdog on Wednesday. Washington (11-14) has lost four in a row after their 115-111 loss at Chicago as a 5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana should bounce back to play better as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, the Pacers return home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They may be without Myles Turner who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. But the Wizards are undermanned as well with both Bradley Beal and Will Barton out tonight with injuries. Washington made 48.8% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting mark in their last four contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They stay on the road where they are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, the Wizards are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games in December.
FINAL TAKE: Washington looks to avenge a 127-117 upset loss at home to the Pacers on October 28th as a 5-point favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Wizards are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games at Indiana against the Pacers. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Indiana Pacers (506) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-22 |
Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 |
Top |
116-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (552) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (551). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-9) has lost two in a row after their 121-106 loss at New Orleans as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (12-11) has won three of their last four games after their 130-111 win against Phoenix as a 3-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver made 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was actually the lowest shooting percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets rank 5th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games at home after shooting 50% or better from the field in at least three straight games. Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss. They are banged up a bit with Michael Porter out and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope along with Jeff Green questionable with injuries — but they are scoring at a 118.1 points per 100 possession rate without Porter on the court this year. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Dallas held the Suns to just 43.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games off a win at home. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last contest. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be looking to avenge a 98-97 upset loss at home to the Nuggets as a 10-point favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss where they were laying 7 or more points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month is with the Denver Nuggets (552) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-22 |
Mavs v. Pistons +8 |
|
125-131 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (554) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (553). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-10) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 116-113 upset win at home against Golden State as a 1-point underdog on Tuesday. Detroit (5-18) has lost three in a row after a 140-110 loss to New York as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Mavericks are very reliant on Luka Doncic who has been spectacular this season — but they lack reliable secondary scoring options. In games like this when playing a bad team or a team undermanned due to injuries, Doncic tends to coast — and the team underachieves. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when favored. They come off that upset win against the Warriors but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a win at home. And while Dallas has covered the point spread just twice in their last 14 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Rebounding is another concern — they rank 29th in the NBA in Rebounding Rate. They have been outrebounded in five straight games and 10 of their last 11 contests. Now they go on the road where they are just 1-7 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Detroit allowed the Knicks to make 56.2% of their shots which was a season-worst mark. They also allowed New York to pull down 61.2% of the available rebounds which was also a season-worst mark. The Pistons should work harder on defense and in crashing the boards after that embarrassing effort. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Detroit is undermanned themselves with Cade Cunningham out indefinitely with a shin injury and Jaden Ivey questionable with a knee. But Isaiah Stewart did return to the court on Tuesday — and the Pistons pull down +3.1% more rebounds when he is on the court. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after losing three in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against Western Conference opponents. 10* NBA Dallas-Detroit NBA-TV Special Detroit Pistons (554) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-22 |
Nets v. Pacers +4 |
Top |
117-128 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (534) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (533). THE SITUATION: Indiana (10-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 115-101 loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Brooklyn (9-10) has won three of their last four games after a 112-98 victory as a 2.5-point favorite at Toronto on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana played their worst game of the season on Wednesday. Their 38.5% shooting percentage was the worst offensive effort of the season. They allowed the Timberwolves to make 61.0% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive performance of the new season. But Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. While many expected this team to tank after beginning a rebuild when they traded Domantas Sabonis midseason last year, they are playing well. They may have the Rookie of the Year in Benedict Mathurin who they drafted as the sixth pick in the NBA draft from Arizona. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been a dynamic floor general and scorer for the team. And while they may still deal Myles Turner and Buddy Hield for draft assets before the trade deadline, those are two nice complementary players in the meantime. Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning two of their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games this month. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The laptops like them a lot as they rank 11th in the league in net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. They rank 8th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and now they host a Nets team that can lack effort on defense and ranks 19th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacramento scored 153 points against them earlier this month. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a divisional rival — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, Brooklyn is 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. This team is playing better under new head coach Jacques Vaughn — and Ben Simmons’ productivity has improved. But Simmons is still an issue for the team since he can lack aggressiveness on offense to avoid getting fouled — and the team lacks interior size on defense. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games with the Total set in the 230s. And in their last 40 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana looks to avenge a 116-109 loss in Brooklyn to the Nets on October 31st — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when they have the opportunity for revenge. The Nets were 7.5-point favorites in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Pacers. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (534) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks -6 |
|
118-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (578) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (12-4) has won two of their last three games after their 119-111 win against Portland as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday. Chicago (7-10) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 121-107 upset victory against Boston as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee opened the season with nine straight victories despite playing with an injured Khris Middleton. A rash of short-term injuries played a role in their losing three of four, but the Bucks are getting healthy again (besides for Middleton) — and they were 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 9-1 this season with an average winning margin of +9.9 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Chicago continues to play without Lonzo Ball — and veteran guard Goran Dragic is out with an injury which leaves them thin at the point guard position. The Bulls have played two straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after playing an Under in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing two straight Unders. Furthermore, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez defending the rim, Milwaukee leads the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is a bad matchup for an undermanned Bulls team that ranks only 20th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the Bucks. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (578) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-22 |
Grizzlies +2.5 v. Pelicans |
|
102-113 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (545) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (546). THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-5) looks to bounce back from a 102-92 loss at Washington as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (7-6) has won two of their last three games after a 119-106 win against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis only made 39.6% of their shots on Sunday which was the lowest shooting percentage for them since their opening game of the season. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. Memphis should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 straight games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. And in their last 28 games after a point spread loss, they have covered the point spread in 20 of those contests. They will be without Desmond Bane and Zaire Williams tonight but Jaren Jackson, Jr. is expected to make his season debut tonight. He should have an instant impact to help improve the play on defense for this team. He was a first-teamer on the All-Defensive team last year after leading the league with 2.3 blocks per game. The Grizzlies held their opponents to 106.0 points per 100 possessions with Jackson on the court last year. Memphis has been a disappointment on the defensive end of the court so far this season — but they have been better as of late. They have held their last five opponents to 106.6 Points-Per-Game on 45.1% shooting which is a significant improvement over the 113.4 PPG and 45.8% opponent’s field goal percentage numbers they have posted for the season. And the Grizzlies still have Ja Morant who is scoring 28.1 PPG and dishing out 7.0 assists per game. Morant is nailing 41.0% of his shots from behind the arc — if he continues to come close to that mark, he will be unstoppable on the offensive end of the court. Memphis has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 46 games on the road with the Total set in the 220s. New Orleans might be without Zion Williamson tonight as he is listed as questionable with his right ankle injury. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans allowed the Rockets to make 50.6% of their shots on Saturday which continued a disturbing trend on defense. The Pelicans have allowed three of their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* NBA Memphis-New Orleans TNT Special with the Memphis Grizzlies (545) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-22 |
Clippers v. Spurs +4 |
|
113-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (540) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (539). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (5-3) looks to rebound from a 143-100 loss to Toronto as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after a 109-101 win at Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite San Antonio seemingly tanking this season with the hopes of winning the NBA draft lottery so they can win the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, head coach Gregg Popovich has his team playing hard. Led by Keldon Johnson, the Spurs have an intriguing group of young players. But they come off their worst game of the season against the Raptors where they shot a season-low 39.4% from the field. And with Toronto nailing 53.8% of their shots, San Antonio played their second-worst game of the season from a defensive field goal percentage perspective. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 125 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington tonight. Leonard is already implementing injury management for his knee issues and Covington is ill. The Clippers' victory against the Rockets finished Under the 223.5 total — and Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after playing an Under in their last game. They stay on the road having failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their previous game on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with San Antonio Spurs (540) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-22 |
Hornets +6.5 v. Bulls |
|
88-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (506). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-4) has lost three of their last four games after a 115-108 loss to Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Chicago (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 108-99 upset win at Brooklyn as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Hornets have started the season undermanned with both LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier out with injuries. Head coach Steve Clifford, in his second stint with the team after losing his job after the 2018 season, still has Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington — and he is getting nice contributions from Kelly Oubre and former lottery pick Dennis Smith, Jr. Clifford has this group playing hard with victories against two playoff teams last year in Golden State and Atlanta. Charlotte is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road. Chicago is also dealing with several injuries. Lonzo Ball is out for the first few months of the season undergoing rehabilitation with his knee. The Bulls had a 27-13 record with Ball healthy last season — but they fell off to a 19-23 mark when he was unavailable to play last year. Zach LaVine is questionable as he engages in injury load management early this season — he played 37:13 minutes last night against the Nets. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing without rest. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulls are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Charlotte Hornets (505) plus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-22 |
Pistons +6 v. Wizards |
Top |
99-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (531) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (532). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-2) has lost two games in a row after a 124-115 loss at Indiana as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Washington (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 117-107 loss at Cleveland on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has been a disappointment so far this season with two bad losses on the road after a sluggish effort at home against Orlando that they still pulled out by four points in their season-opener. But this should still be a feisty team that competes for one of the Play-In spots in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Pistons have one of the brightest young stars in the game in Cade Cunningham — and their two first-round draft picks last June, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duran, have looked good so far this season. The team added two veterans in the offseason in Bojan Bogdanovich and Nerlens Noel to complement these players. Detroit shot only 38.9% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage for them so far this season. Head coach Duane Casey has done a nice job overseeing the offense of this young team — the Pistons lead in the league with 47.5% of their shots coming from the rim. But Detroit is only making 52.5% of these shots which is the lowest mark in the NBA. The Regression Gods should be making an appearance sooner than later for the Pistons and their shooting - and now they play a Wizards team that appears to have taken a step back on defense in the offseason. Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. All three of the Pistons' games have finished Over the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing three straight Overs. Detroit was a reliable team on the road in the final few months of last season. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Washington has Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis healthy and playing together for the first time since they acquired Porzingis last season. The Wizards brought in Will Barton and Monte Morris in the offseason — but the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope takes away one of their best defensive players from last season. Washington has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Washington returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They are just 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have struggled with their defensive play as they are allowing their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — but the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (531) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-22 |
Mavs v. Suns -4 |
|
105-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix (526) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (525). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (0-0) begins the new season coming off their 123-90 Game Seven loss at home to Dallas that ended that Western Conference Semifinals series. Dallas (0-0) looks to build off reaching the Western Conference Finals where they lost to Golden State in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a tumultuous offseason for Phoenix. Head coach Monty Williams benched DeAndre Ayton in that Game Seven loss to the Mavericks since he can be a liability on defense against four-out 3-point shooting teams. That relationship appears to still be less than ideal. The organization still decided to match the offer sheet extended to him by Indiana — and move I found reasonable. Then there is the controversy regarding owner Robert Sarver with him concluding to sell the team given his sketchy behavior — and that might serve to rally the team together since the Wicked Witch of the West is leaving. Most importantly, this was still a 64-win team that disappointed last year — and they have the opportunity to get this season going with positive energy while exacting a measure of revenge against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year. This group lost Javale McGree in the offseason (who signed with Dallas) but they get Dario Saric back after he was injured in the playoffs. While we should take preseason numbers with a grain of salt, it certainly is encouraging that Chris Paul averaged 10 assists-per-game in the exhibition season despite playing only 25 minutes per game. They last played a week ago in a 105-104 loss at home to Sacramento — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games last year when playing with three or more days of rest. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Dallas finished their exhibition season on Friday in a 115-101 win at Utah. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with three or more days of rest. This team will be tested early learning to live life without Jalen Brunson who signed with the New York Knicks in the offseason. Spencer Dinwiddie is being asked to step up as the second scorer behind Luka Doncic. They do lose Dinwiddie’s scoring punch off the best with him now in the starting rotation. Head coach Jason Kidd gets Tim Hardaway, Jr. back who was injured in the playoffs last year — but the scoring chemistry of this team may be a work in progress. Kidd is missing some key rotation pieces tonight with Davis Bertrans out with a knee injury and Max Kleber questionable with an illness. This team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — their upset win in Game Seven against Phoenix was the lone exception during that final stretch of road games last season.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing the Suns in Phoenix. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Phoenix (526) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-22 |
Lakers +7.5 v. Warriors |
|
109-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) tips off their season following a disappointing 33-49 season. Golden State (0-0) begins the defense of their NBA championship after beating the Boston Celtics in the finals.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Warriors are probably a bit overvalued to begin the season. Head coach Steve Kerr conceded that his team is not in midseason shape yet — so the starters are not likely to play more than 30 minutes tonight. Golden State lost several of their bench players from last year with Gary Payton, Jr., Otto Porter, Jr., Nemanja Bjelica, and Damion Lee all moving on to new teams. The team also has the distraction of ring night as they celebrate last year’s title in front of their fans. While the Warriors will be celebrating their past, the Lakers should be very anxious to get the bad taste out of their mouths from last year’s embarrassment. LeBron James and Anthony Davis should have benefited from getting the summer off — so they should be rested and ready. The Lakers have a dominant 75-33 straight-up record when James and Davis are healthy and playing together. The addition of Patrick Beverley will help this team — and I have always thought that using Russell Westbrook off the bench to anchor the second unit was the best way to use his talents at this point in his career. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing at Golden State.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors crushed the Lakers the last time these two teams played on April 7th with a 128-112 win at home. Making an early statement is much more important to Los Angeles than it is for Golden State who will still be thinking about last season with the ring ceremony. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Lakers (503) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 |
|
103-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (528) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (527) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-40) returns home looking to stave off elimination after a 104-94 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 4-point underdog on Monday. Golden State (68-35) can win the NBA Championship tonight after winning three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: I rewatched Game Five last night because I had to look away from the pain as to how bad the Celtics were playing. I did not pay close attention as to how Boston quickly rallied in 3rd quarter. And I studied what happened with Marcus Smart before the refs rewarded Jordan Poole's flop that helped cement Golden State's 4th quarter momentum swing. The refs injected themselves in the game, but Smart was flopping earlier and then whining for calls which is just not going to happen on the road (and by a player who lacks a title, despite being the reigning Defensive Player of the Year). I think Boston dug themselves too big a hole to win Game 5, but, wow, they still could have covered if they could have just been given the room to rebound before the refs started giving the Warriors 3-point swings (and Smart being on tilt did not help, of course). That Poole 3-pointer at the buzzer to end the third quarter certainly played a role in re-establishing the momentum for Golden State — and laid the foundation for Smart losing focus by doing his best Neymar impersonation by flopping around before Poole gets away with his flop. Very frustrating. That all said, Boston is close — and they deserve credit for making eight straight 3-pointers after missing their first 12 in the game to take a four-point lead late in the third quarter after such a nightmare start to the game. This team is resilient as they demonstrated throughout the playoffs which included avoiding elimination by winning on the road in Game Seven at Miami and in Game Six at Milwaukee (before winning that Game Seven). It is going to be a rabid crowd in Boston tonight with their last game at home this season — and that city knows how to inject themselves into an urgent playoff game. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — including seven of their eight games after a loss in this postseason. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a double-digit loss on the road. Additionally, Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 105 points in two straight games. The Celtics lost Game Four by a 107-97 score in their previous game at home — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 straight playoff games when trailing in a series. The Celtics' lack of urgency in handling and passing the basketball has been infuriating to watch at times. They have yet to learn that every playoff possession demands finer attention to detail — when Golden State turns the ball over, it is usually a function of their attempt to be aggressive (and is more forgivable). Too many of Boston’s 18 turnovers on Monday were a product of lackadaisicalness. But that was tied for most turnovers they had committed in their last nine games and tied for the second-most in their last 62 games. The Celtics should tighten things up in this department tonight — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after committing at least 10 more turnovers than their opponent in their last game. The Warriors only committed six turnovers in Game Five which was tied for the fewest turnovers they committed all season going back to Game Three of the regular when they also only had six turnovers at Sacramento on October 24th. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games when playing their second game in five days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the opportunity to close out the series. They are also just 1-3-1 in their last 5 games at Boston.
FINAL TAKE: I thought this was going to be a seven-game series before it started — and I still feel that way. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 opportunities to avenge two straight losses to their opponent. 10* NBA Golden State-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (528) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-22 |
Celtics +4 v. Warriors |
Top |
94-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-39) looks to rebound from their 107-97 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home on Friday. Golden State (67-35) evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston only made 40% of their shots on Friday after nailing 48.7% of their shots on their home court in Game Three. Jayson Tatum had an off night — while he scored 23 points and made 4 of his 8 shots from behind the arc, he was just 8 of 23 from the field overall. The Celtics got out-worked on the boards. After dominating the Warriors in Game Three by out-rebounding them by a 47 to 31 margin, they let the smaller team grab 55 boards to their 42 boards on Friday. Don’t blame Robert Williams III who pulled down 12 rebounds and had a +/- rating of +6 when he was on the court. The silver lining for Boston was that the Time Lord played 31:27 minutes in Game Four despite his nagging knee injury — and now he gets two days off to prepare for Game Five. Boston has been consistently reliable after subpar efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a low-scoring game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The extra day of rest should help as this series gets back to the two days off between games. Boston is the younger team and the extra day should help them be fresh again where they can use their energy to get back to controlling the boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with two days of rest. The Celtics have been one of the best teams playing away from home all season — and in the postseason. They are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Boston is also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State got yet another superman effort from Stephen Curry who scored 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting on Friday. Can he keep carrying the Warriors in seemingly every game? As we predicted, head coach Steve Kerr gave Kevon Looney more court time on Friday to address the rebounding disadvantage — and he responded with 11 boards in his 28:10 minutes up action, up 11 1/2 minutes from Wednesday. But the problem with Looney on the court is that he offers nothing on the offensive end — so Boston head coach Ime Udoka should have his team prepared to expose this liability. A lingering concern for the Warriors is that Draymond Green continues to provide little as well — he missed six of his seven shots for 2 points in Game Four after scoring only 2 points in Game Three. Green’s +/- rating on Friday was 0 — and the Warriors simply cannot win this series if they are not outscoring the Celtics when he is on the court. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset win on the road by 10 or more points.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is comfortable playing the Warriors in their building as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road against them. And in their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home to their opponent, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-22 |
Warriors +4 v. Celtics |
Top |
107-97 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-35) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-100 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday in Game Three of the NBA Finals. Boston (65-38) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr identified that the biggest issue his team had in Game Three was getting beat on the boards. The Celtics enjoyed a 47-31 edge on the glass on Wednesday — and while they will likely continue to have an edge in that area, the Warriors need to work harder to minimize that advantage. There are some lineup moves that Kerr can make. But, first and foremost, Golden State needs a better game from Draymond Green after he only pulled down four rebounds before fouling out in what was his worst game in the postseason. Green later defined his own play as “soft,” which is a pretty good indication that he will be addressing the problem himself. In hindsight, it looks like he got caught up in all the technical fouls and officiating talk earlier in the week. He should play better tonight and help his team get into a better offensive flow after dishing out three assists and scoring two points in Game Three. As a point forward, he generates 6.1 Assists-Per-Game with that mark rising to a 7.1 clip in the playoffs. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Boston nailed 48.3% of their shots in Game Three which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. They are also making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this series — I do expect that to decline. The Celtics also took 24 shots from the free-throw line on Wednesday was seven more attempts than what Golden State got after the officials were on notice about the Green drama after Game Two. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 50 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 home games after a point spread victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home with the Total set in the 210s. Another concern for Boston tonight is the health of Robert Williams III. The Time Lord was great in Game Three with the Celtics outscoring the Warriors by 21 points with him on the court. But this will be the first time since Game Seven against Miami last round when Williams will be playing on just one day of rest. The knee injury that has slowed him down for months may give him troubles tonight — he was only able to play 14:42 minutes in that crucial game against the Heat on May 29th, almost two weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA Friday Television Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 |
Top |
100-116 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-38) looks to rebound from their 107-88 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (66-34) has won six of their last eight games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston accomplished what they needed in Game One by winning that game and seizing home-court advantage. Head coach Ime Udoka may have kept a few of his planned tricks in this series up his sleeve in Game Two. The Celtics may have been dealing with some fatigue after needing seven games to get by both Miami and Milwaukee in earlier rounds of the playoffs. The two full days off between games will help as this team returns home. Boston has covered the point spread after all 6 of their previous losses in the postseason -- and they have an averaging winning margin of +15.5 Points-Per-Game in those six contests. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. Boston needs to tighten things up in protecting the basketball after committing 18 turnovers in Game Three. The Celtics average 13 turnovers per game on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in the playoffs after committing at least 14 turnovers in their previous game this postseason. Stephen Curry scored 14 of his 29 points off turnovers in Game Two — so his scoring will probably go down if — and when — Boston turns the ball over fewer times tonight. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the playoffs after a straight-up win this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on the road in these playoffs after a straight-up win. The Warriors are 10-1 at home in the postseason — but they are just 3-4 on the road straight-up. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when playing for the second time in five days. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: This is a good opportunity to take the Celtics with the narrative that Boston has played poorly on their home court with “just” a 5-4 record in these playoffs. They still have a 33-17 record with a +6.7 PPG at home this season. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games since March after a loss. And in their two games in the playoffs played at home after a loss, the Celtics beat Milwaukee in Game Two of that series by 23 points before beating Miami in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals by 20 points. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 opportunities to host the Warriors at TD Garden. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 |
|
88-107 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (520) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (519) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (65-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 120-108 upset loss at home to the Celtics in the opening game of this series. Boston (64-37) has won four of their last five games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State seemed a step slow and at times appeared fatigued on Thursday after having a week off from dispatching Dallas in five games. They only made 44.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting mark in their last six games. And in allowing the Celtics to make 50.6% of their shots, the Warriors played their worst game on defense in their last 13 contests. They should be back in basketball shape and speed for Game Two — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing their second game in five days. Golden State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after a straight-up loss. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when trailing in a playoff series. And they are still 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Boston’s 50.6% shooting percentage was their best shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics thrived by them nailing 21 of their 41 shots (51.2%) from behind the arc. But Boston’s top two shooters — Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — only made 3 of their 13 combined shots from 3-point range. Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Daniel Theis combined to nail 18 of their 27 shots (67%) from 3-point range — just a tremendous accomplishment for a group where just Pritchard and Theis made more than 33.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season yet, tellingly, they averaged fewer 3-point attempts per game than the trio of Horford, Smart, and White in the regular season. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Boston got what they wanted in their trip to Golden State by seizing home court advantage — so their sense of urgency may not quite be the same as the Warriors. Golden State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games a home when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. And while the Celtics also upset the Warriors by a 110-88 score on March 16th at the Chase Center in their last meeting in the regular season despite being a 2-point road underdog, Golden State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games when motivated by revenge in two straight upset losses to their opponent. 20* NBA Boston-Golden State ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (520) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 |
|
120-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (518) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (517) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (65-33) has won five of their last six games after their 120-110 victory at home against Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite last Thursday to close out that series in five games. Boston (63-37) won their third game in their last four with their 100-96 victory on the road in Miami as a 3-point favorite to take that series in seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State holds all the cards for the opening game of the NBA Finals. They have been able to rest at home all week — and they have the benefit of their core players having already played in five NBA Finals with three championships since 2015. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the points spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Golden State is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Warriors have won all nine of their games at home in the playoffs — and they are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 home games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 range. Head coach Steve Kerr’s team is also getting close to full strength again with reports that Gary Payton II. will be active tonight and Otto Porter, Jr. practicing yesterday. Boston is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 Game Ones of a new series.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State split their two regular-season games with the Celtics but lost the last meeting between these two teams by a 110-88 score as a 2-point underdog on March 16th. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss against their opponent. 10* NBA Boston-Golden State ABC-TV Special with the Golden State Warriors (518) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-22 |
Celtics -2.5 v. Heat |
Top |
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (62-37) looks to rebound from their 111-103 upset loss at home to the Heat as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Miami (64-35) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series by forcing the decisive Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: It is telling that Boston has been identified as the favorite tonight despite the historical success of home teams in Game Sevens. The Celtics have the better numbers in most categories in this series: Offensive Efficiency, assist percentage, rebounding percentage, effective field goal percentage, fast break points, made 3-pointers, and free throw attempts. The only areas where the Heat have the edge over the Celtics are in points off turnovers, second-chance points, and points in the paint. Boston went into the locker room trailing by a 48-46 score — and then somehow Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to take only seven shots from the field in the second half in the 8-point loss. I expect that to be corrected by this duo playing in their sixth Eastern Conference Finals series in their young careers. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread after all five of their losses in the postseason. They have an average margin of victory in the playoffs after a loss by +12.1 Points-Per-Game — and they beat Miami by 20 and 25 points after their two previous losses to them in this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. Interestingly, while the Celtics have just a 5-4 record at home in the playoffs, they have a 6-2 straight-up record on the road including two victories in Miami in this series. Boston is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when favored. Miami got a surprising performance from Jimmy Butler on Friday as he scored 47 points while converting 16 of 29 shots from the field and nailing four 3-pointers (not really his game). This was surprising not because I have any doubts about Butler’s talents but because he seemed to be so negatively impacted by the knee inflammation that kept him out of the second half in Game Three. Butler scored only 19 points on 7 of 32 shooting in Games Four and Five combined. I just remain skeptical that Butler can put two superhuman performances in a row on that bum knee — especially when he played 45:57 minutes on Friday. Kyle Lowry has also been slowed with his hamstring but stepped up to score 18 points on Friday after scoring only 3 points on 1 of 12 shooting in Games Four and Five. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and P.J. Tucker have also been slowed by injuries in this series. And then there is Tyler Herro who has not played since injuring his groin in Game Three. The Heat lose -2.8 points per 100 possessions with Herro on the court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games playing without him. Even if he tries to take the court tonight, his effectiveness remains very much in doubt considering his injury usually puts NBA players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games at home after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Heat in Miami. I don’t the Heat — I am just skeptical that they can come close to replicating the performance in Game Six given their injury situation. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-22 |
Celtics v. Heat +3.5 |
|
93-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (502) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (501) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (63-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 102-82 loss as a 7-point underdog on Monday. Boston (61-36) has won four of their last six games while evening this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami shot only 33.3% from the field in Game 4 which was the worst shooting percentage for them all season. They should shoot better returning back home where they make 47.6% of their shots. The Heat have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on their home court after not scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Heat have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 games at home as an underdog, they have covered the point spread 4 times. Miami has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Boston played their best defensive game in Game Four by holding the Heat to 39.7% shooting. But the Celtics are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. And while Boston has only attempted 70 and 78 shots from the field in Games Three and Four, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not attempting more than 80 shots in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Injuries play a big role tonight for both teams. After not playing on Monday, Marcus Smart remains questionable with an ankle injury. Robert Williams III is questionable with the nagging knee injury he has been dealing with throughout the postseason. Miami has five players listed as questionable including Kyle Lowry. But Jimmy Butler is not even on the injury list after dealing with knee inflammation in Game Three on Saturday. Only Tyler Herro on the Heat injury report did not play in Game Four so I do expect most of these players to take the court tonight. Miami has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN Special with the Miami Heat (502) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-22 |
Warriors v. Mavs |
|
109-119 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (568) minus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (567) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-38) has lost four of their last six games after their 109-100 upset loss as a 3-point favorite at home against the Warriors on Sunday. Golden State (64-32) has won six of their last seven games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Jason Kidd is not likely to let his team give up tonight just because they fell behind 3-0 in this series. Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 24 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 19 of these contests. The Mavericks got outrebounded by a 47 to 33 margin in Game Three — and they have been outrebounded by at least 13 boards in each game in this series. Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being outrebounded by five or more boards in three straight games. The Mavericks have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored. I was wrong about Dallas winning and covering in Game Three — but I still claim that we should not underestimate this team. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: Luka Doncic should lead his team to the victory tonight — especially if he can get some help from his teammates. Doncic made 11 of his 23 shots on Sunday en route to his 40-point night. His teammates only made 19 of their 52 shot attempts for a 36.5% clip. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Golden State-Dallas TNT Special with the Dallas Mavericks (568) minus the point(s) versus the Golden State Warriors (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-22 |
Heat v. Celtics -6.5 |
|
82-102 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (566) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (565) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston (60-36) looks to rebound from their 109-103 upset loss at home against the Celtics as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Miami (63-33) has won four of their last five games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston started slowly in Game Three as they trailed by as many as 26 points in the second quarter before rallying to make it a game in the second half. After losing home-court advantage, they should play better tonight. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. The Celtics need to tighten things up by doing a better job of protecting the basketball after committing 23 turnovers. The Heat only turned the ball over eight times giving them a big +15 edge in the turnover department. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after committing at least 10 more turnovers than their opponent in their last game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +10 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog in the playoffs — and the Celtics are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 playoff games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Injuries are central to the storyline tonight. The Heat will be without Tyler Herro tonight after he injured his groin on Saturday. Jimmy Butler claims he will play after missing the second half of Game Three with his nagging knee injury — but he may not be 100%. Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III are both listed as questionable — but Smart did play after twisting his ankle in Game Three and head coach Ime Udoka says Williams III is improving. Most importantly, Jayson Tatum is listed as probable after injuring his shoulder on Saturday. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 straight playoff games when trailing in the series. 20* NBA Miami-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (566) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (565). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-22 |
Warriors v. Mavs -2 |
Top |
109-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-37) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 126-117 loss on the road against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State (63-32) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas was in reach to pull the upset in Game Two — they entered the fourth quarter trailing by two points and remained within four points with under four minutes to go before getting outscored by a 19-14 margin the rest of the way. The Mavericks allowed the Warriors to nail 56.1% of their shots (14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc) which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. But Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. Don’t underestimate this Dallas team — this is a cohesive team that usually makes more 3s while attempting 46.3% of their shots from behind the arc in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And they are led by a superstar in Luka Doncic who can put his team on his shoulders. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to six points. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Dallas against the Mavericks. And in Dallas’ last 28 games when given the opportunity for same-season revenge, they have covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-22 |
Heat +6.5 v. Celtics |
|
109-103 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (561) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (562) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals (561). THE SITUATION: Miami (62-33) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 127-102 upset loss as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (60-35) has won three of their last four games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After taking Game One by 11 points, Miami was flat on Thursday. They only made 44.2% of their shots which was was lowest mark in their last five games. They only made 10 of their 34% (29%) shots from 3-point range. And in allowing the Celtics to make 52.1% of their shots, they played their worst defensive game in their last four contests. Head coach Erik Spoelstra will have his team ready to play tonight. The Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a double-digit upset loss. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games on the road after a loss by 20 or more points. Miami is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Boston was on fire in Game Two from behind the arc as they made 20 of their 40 (50%) shots from behind the arc. Their 51.2% field goal percentage was tied their best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But the Celtics are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 opportunities to host the Heat in Boston.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. 10* NBA Miami-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Miami Heat (561) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-22 |
Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors |
|
117-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (647) plays the points versus the Golden State Warriors (648) in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-36) look to rebound from their 112-87 loss on the road to the Warriors in the opening game of this series as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Golden State (62-32) has won four of their last five games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas was flat on Wednesday. They started slow by finishing the first quarter trailing by a 28-18 score — and it was pretty much downhill from there. The Mavericks underachieved on both ends of the court. They allowed Golden State to nail 56.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in the last six games. Their 36.0% shooting percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last 30 games. They only made 11 of 48 (23%) of their shots from behind the arc and ended the game with an Offensive Rating of 90.6. Dallas should shoot the basketball better tonight. They have made 45.1% of their shots in the postseason with a 37% clip from behind the arc even after Wednesday’s disappointing effort. The Mavericks have generated an Offensive Rating of 112.7 in these playoffs. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Don’t underestimate this Dallas team — this is a cohesive team that usually makes more 3s while attempting 46.3% of their shots from behind the arc in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And they are led by a superstar in Luka Doncic who can put his team on his shoulders. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs. On the road, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series. Golden State enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last four games with the 56.1% clip on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Warriors have a high-ceiling when they are playing at their best — but consistency has been a problem for them as they have tended to get too lackadaisical in protecting the basketball. They ranked 13th of the sixteen playoffs teams after the first two rounds with a 15.8% turnover percentage. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games when favored. And in their last 8 playoff games when leading in the series, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against them in Golden State. And in their last 27 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. 10* NBA Dallas-Golden TNT Special with the Dallas Mavericks (647) plays the points versus the Golden State Warriors (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-22 |
Celtics +3.5 v. Heat |
|
127-102 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (543) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (544) in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-35) lost their fourth game in their last seven contests with a 118-107 loss on the road against the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. Miami (62-32) has won three in a row and seven of their last nine while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston started fast on Tuesday by seizing a 62-54 halftime lead — but playing undermanned and on short rest finally caught up with them as they got outscored by a 39-14 margin in the third quarter. The Celtics allowed the Heat to nail 48.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Boston missed their quarterback on defense — and the 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year — in Marcus Smart who missed the game with a foot injury. The Celtics were also without Al Horford due to COVID protocols — and he is doubtful tonight to clear quarantine. Not having Horford tonight does not help — but head coach Ime Udoka did get over 28 good minutes from Robert Williams III with the Time Lord scoring 18 points and adding 9 rebounds. Williams III did not play much in the closing games of the previous series with Milwaukee with his nagging knee injury. Williams III is largely responsible for the Celtics’ dramatic improvement on defense midseason which eventually elevated them to the best Defensive Rating in the NBA. They have held six of their last eight opponents to no better than 43.5% shooting. Boston should play better tonight in a decisive Game Two which would give them home-court advantage if they can steal the game. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss on the road. Boston has been a great road team this season that is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games away from home — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games as an underdog. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami has nailed at least 48.3% of their shots in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has some injury issues coming into play for tonight’s game. Kyle Lowry remains out with a hamstring injury — and his absence might leave the team without a reliable complementary scorer to Jimmy Butler. P.J. Tucker is dealing with an ankle but he is listed as probable. But a looming problem is the hamstring injuries to guards Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. These two are playing more since the playoff series with Philadelphia because Duncan Robinson is a liability on defense. Both played over 30 minutes on Tuesday — and Robinson did not get on the court.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat have won the last two meetings between these two teams going back to the regular season — but the Celtics have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 52 games when playing with double-revenge. Boston has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in Miami against the Heat. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN Special with the Boston Celtics (543) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-22 |
Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 |
|
87-112 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (540) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (539) in Game One of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (61-32) won their third game in their last four contests after closing out their six-game series with Memphis with their 110-96 victory as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Dallas (60-35) won their fourth game in their last five contests with their 123-90 upset victory in Phoenix as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State beat the Grizzlies by 14 points on Friday despite making only 39.4% of their shots from the field in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 23 games. They should play shoot better tonight as they covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home after a double-digit victory. And while the Warriors have only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Golden State’s strong defense was on display in Game Six as they held the Grizzlies to just 35.4% shooting — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games at home after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. The extra days off can only help this veteran team — they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with at least three days of rest. On their home court, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games — and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 opening games to a new playoff series when they are playing at home but not a double-digit favorite. They do expect to have Otto Porter, Jr. back for this series after being out with a foot injury — so that helps the bench. Dallas enters this series with two fewer days of rest having played on Sunday — and they have played two more games in the postseason with 13 games already under their belts. The Mavericks nailed 56.8% of their shots in their blowout win at Phoenix which was the best shooting effort in their last 64 games. And by holding the Suns to just 37.9% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last eight contests. Their 33-point win in Game Seven came on the heels of their 113-86 upset win at home against Phoenix in Game Six. An emotional letdown now is likely after this team pulled themselves off the brink of elimination twice in a row. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points. In both those games, Dallas raced out to big halftime leads of 15 and 30 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after taking double-digit halftime leads in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 opening games to a new series.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas did win three of the four games between these teams in the regular season series including the most recent two games against the Warriors. These two teams last played on March 3rd when the Mavericks won by a 122-113 score as a 2-point favorite at home — but Golden State has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when avenging a loss on the road. The Warriors have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Dallas-Golden State TNT Special with the Golden State Warriors (540) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-22 |
Celtics v. Heat -1.5 |
|
107-118 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (536) minus the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (535) in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (61-32) has won six of their last eight games after their 99-90 upset win at Philadelphia as a 2-point underdog on Thursday that ended that series in six games. Boston (59-34) beat Milwaukee by a 109-81 score as a 5-point favorite on Sunday to take that series in seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINT(S): Miami will be rested and ready on their home court for this opening contest. They have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest — including eleven of these last fifteen situations. The Heat should build off the momentum of their series win against the 76ers as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset victory on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Miami returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 63 playoff games when they were the favorite under head coach Erik Spoelstra, they have covered the point spread 43 times. The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry who remains out is a hamstring injury — but the Celtics may not have Marcus Smart who is listed as questionable with a sprained foot. Smart missed a game in the last round against the Bucks — head coach Ime Udoka may err on the side of caution by not playing him to give him two more days of rest and recovery. Boston got the short end of the stick when compared to Dallas who also played on Sunday but get an extra day before starting their series with Golden State. The Celtics have the difficult challenge to travel to Miami on a 48-hour turnaround to begin this series. They did beat Milwaukee by decisive 13 and 18 point margins in the final two games of that series — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after two double-digit victories in a row. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the Eastern Conference Finals going back to the Bubble when they lost to the Heat.
FINAL TAKE: Boston won the three-game regular-season series between these teams — but they got upset at home against Miami by a 106-98 score in the most recent meeting between these teams on March 30th as a 5-point favorite. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 10* NBA Boston-Miami ESPN Special with the Miami Heat (536) minus the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-22 |
Mavs v. Suns -6 |
|
123-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (528) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (527) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (71-23) looks to rebound from their 113-86 upset loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 2-point favorite on Thursday. Dallas (59-35) has won three of the last four games in this series to force a decisive Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix was flat in Game Six after taking a 3-1 lead in this series with a 30-point victory in Game Five. They only made 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc which was the worst shooting mark in their last 14 games. The Suns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a double-digit upset loss. And in their last 7 games when favored, they have covered the point spread 5 times. Dallas played their best game on defense in their last seven contests by holding Phoenix to 39.7% shooting. And their 45.5% shooting percentage on Thursday was the best shooting mark in their last four contests. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset victory by double-digits as a home underdog. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. They travel back to Phoenix where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games there against the Suns.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road to their opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games when avenging a loss as a road favorite. 10* NBA Dallas-Phoenix TNT Special with the Phoenix Suns (528) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-22 |
Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 |
|
81-109 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (524) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (523) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (58-34) forced a decisive seventh game in this series with their 108-95 upset victory on the road against the Bucks as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Milwaukee (58-35) has lost two of the last three games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston should build off their momentum this afternoon back on their home court. They are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after a low-scoring game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Boston has only played 7 games this season on their home court with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range — and they covered the point spread 5 times. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games in the playoffs as a favorite. Milwaukee lost at home by double-digits despite being favored for just the fifth time this season on Friday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 4 previous games. The Bucks are winning the rebounding battle in this series after pulling down 49 boards in Game 6 while the Celtics had 42 boards. Milwaukee has outrebounded Boston by at least six rebounds in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after outrebounding their last four opponents by at least five rebounds. The Celtics, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after getting outrebounded by at least five rebounds in five straight games. Additionally, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on the road as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: The obstacles simply appear to be too much for the defending NBA champions. The team misses Khris Middleton — and Giannis Antetokounmpo is being asked to carry this team with none of his teammates stepping up to offer reliable help (especially on offense). The Bucks have not made more than 43.5% of their shots in four straight games. Boston, on the other hand, has posted an Offensive Rating of 113 or better in five of their last six games after their flat effort in Game One. The Celtics are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against Milwaukee — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when hosting the Bucks. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (524) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-22 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors -7.5 |
|
96-110 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (518) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (517) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (60-32) looks to rebound from their 134-95 upset loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Memphis (62-31) snapped a two-game losing streak in the win to pull within 3-2 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State might have the highest ceiling in the entire league regarding how dominant they can play. Head coach Steve Kerr wants his team to play at a frenetic pace with aggressive defense and flashy passes because this style facilitates a tenor where — if and when they nail a few 3s in a row — the result is a momentum swing that serves as a knockout punch. That is exactly what happened in Game Three when they blasted the Grizzlies by a 142-112 score. But the flip side of this style is that they can get too careless and carefree in their approach — and that is what happened on Wednesday. Being too aggressive can be dangerous against this Memphis team that thrives when creating extra scoring possessions by forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass. The message from Kerr for tonight’s game will likely be to just rein in the sloppiness with the basketball — and work harder. Golden State committed 14 turnovers in the first half which played a big role in them trailing at halftime by a 77-50 score. But the Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after trailing by 20 or more points at halftime. And while their 22 turnovers were 13 more than what Memphis committed, they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after losing the turnover battle by at least 10. The Grizzlies held the rebounding advantage by a 55-37 margin — but Golden State has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after getting outrebounded by at least 15 boards. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. Golden State should play better on defense as well after allowing the Grizzlies to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Warriors are holding Memphis to just a 50.8% effective field goal percentage while they are generating a 54.3% effective field goal percentage. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they are 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Memphis may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after forcing at least 10 more turnovers than their opponent in their last game. The Grizzlies go back on the road where they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis managed to prove they are more than just Ja Morant on Wednesday — but, of course, it will be difficult for them to remain competitive in this series without him. They did post a 20-5 record in the regular season in their 25 games when he was injured — but only 12 of those games were against teams that made the playoffs. Golden State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (518) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-22 |
Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks |
Top |
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-34) has lost two of their last three games in this series after a 110-107 upset loss at home to the Bucks on Wednesday. Milwaukee (58-34) took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): Boston lost a heartbreaker on Wednesday — they had a six-point lead with just over two minutes to go on their home court. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a crucial second free throw late — but Bobby Portis pulled down the offensive rebound and scored the go-ahead winning basket. The Celtics still had a chance to score — but then Jrue Holiday made two crucial blocks to ice the game for the defending NBA champions. Excruciating for this Boston team — but this is a veteran group despite the young ages of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who already have tons of playoff and Game Seven experiences. They should be resilient and respond tonight. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston did shoot 51.2% from the field on Wednesday — but they only made 10 of their 31 shots (32%) from behind the arc so they are not coming off an outlier effort from distance. Back on the road, they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a dog overall. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games at home after a straight-up win. Milwaukee outrebounded the Celtics by a 49-36 margin which was the third-straight game where they won the rebounding battle in this series by at least six boards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outrebounded by their last three opponents by at least five boards. The Bucks got another superhuman performance from Antetokounmpo in Game Five as he scored 40 points on 16 of 27 shooting. But he missed Khris Middleton who plays such a crucial role in the offensive attack for this team. Since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Milwaukee is just 14-14 in their last 28 games without Middleton — and they are just 12-15-1 ATS in those contests. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their45 games on their home court this season. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by no more than six points. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston may get Robert Williams III back for this game which will help their defensive efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston will be confident tonight — they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Bucks and they are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Underdog of the Year is on the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-22 |
Suns v. Mavs +2 |
|
86-113 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (513) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (58-35) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing on the road to the Suns by a 110-80 score as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (71-22) took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas could not hit the side of a barn on Tuesday as they made just 38.0% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 27 games. The Mavericks only hit 8 of their 32 shots from behind the arc. They should shoot much better from behind the arc back at home after a subpar 25% shooting clip from 3-point range. Dallas has made 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home in the playoffs. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 44 of their last 65 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points. Back at home, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog — an they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix posted a Defensive Rating of 85.1 on Tuesday in their best defensive effort of the season. The Mavericks’ 38.0% field goal percentage was the Suns’ lowest opponent’s shooting mark in their last 10 games. But Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Golden State was flat after winning the third game in their series with a game still in hand back on their home court — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix has a Chris Paul problem with the point guard experiencing his third straight subpar game. He is scoring only 8 Points-Per-Game in the last three games while committing 13 turnovers. Even in the blowout win in Game Five, the Suns only outscored the Mavs by +8 points when he was on the court. Blame Jalen Brunson. Usually it is Paul who bullies and out-physicals his counterparts at guard. Brunson is a pit bull who is making life very difficult for Paul while making him exert tons of energy. Now Phoenix goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. The Suns are nailing 39.4% of their shots from behind the arc in the playoffs when playing at home — but they are making just 32.5% of their shots from distance on the road in this postseason.
FINAL TAKE: Luka Doncic is going to be tough to eliminate — and the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record. Dallas has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss by 10 or more points. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Dallas Mavericks (513) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-22 |
Warriors v. Grizzlies +4.5 |
|
95-134 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (510) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (509) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. Memphis (61-31) has lost the last two games in this series after their 101-98 loss on the road to the Warriors on Monday. Golden State (60-31) took a 3-1 lead in this series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Despite not having Ja Morant in Game Four, Memphis remains resilient by being in control for most of the contest before finally surrendering the lead with two minutes left to go. It was a heartbreaking loss for this team that will likely be without Morant for the rest of the postseason. But on the other hand, the Grizzlies posted a 20-5 record during the regular season playing without an injured Morant. Tyus Jones was very effective in the starting lineup replacing Morant in those 25 games. He scored 12.7 Points-Per-Game while dishing out 6.6 Assists-Per-Game and adding 3.2 Rebounds-Per-Game in those games. It is tough to claim that Memphis is actually better when playing without Morant. But their Offensive Efficiency in those 25 games was 117.8 which compares favorably to their Offensive Rating of 114.3 overall. It is fair to say that the Grizzlies perhaps improve on the other end of the court when playing without Morant as defense is the least effective part of his game right now. Memphis was sixth in the league in the regular season by allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions — but they improved that mark by giving up just 104.0 points per 100 possessions in the 25 games played without Morant. And despite the close loss to the Warriors on Monday, the Grizzlies can certainly play better tonight even without Morant. They only made 9 of their 26 shots (26%) of their shots from behind the arc en route to a 41% field goal percentage. But Memphis worked hard on defense as they held Golden State to just a 40% shooting clip. The Grizzlies’ season may end tonight — but they should give offer a good fight. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. They rerun home where they have covered the point spread in 30 of their 46 games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games as an underdog getting up to six points. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home where they failed to cover the point spread. And while they have only covered the pint spread once in their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after covering the point spread just once in their last four games. The Warriors are only making 32.6% of their shots from behind the arc in this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And in their last 11 games when up 3-1 in the series, Golden State has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Memphis Grizzlies (510) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-22 |
Mavs v. Suns -6.5 |
|
80-110 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (504) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (503) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (70-22) is on a two-game losing streak in this series after their 111-103 upset loss on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday. Dallas (58-34) evened the series at 2-2 with their two-game sweep in Games Three and Four on their home court.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix struggled to score baskets in Dallas — but now they return home where they scored 121 and 129 points in the first two games of this series. Only having Chris Paul play for 23 minutes on Sunday before he fouled out did not help their cause. But the Suns have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games after a point spread loss. Back on their home court, Phoenix has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Dallas made 20 of their 44 shots from behind the arc on Sunday — and that 45% clip from 3-point range generated 33 points from distance than the nine 3-pointers made by the Suns. But the Mavericks made only 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. Dorrian Finney-Smith had a career game by scoring 24 points in Game Four — all from 3-point land where he nailed 8 of his 12 shots. I am not expecting history to repeat itself for Finney-Smith on the road. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games against the Suns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in Phoenix.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when playing with revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 straight games when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road where they were favored. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (504) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-22 |
76ers v. Heat -2.5 |
Top |
85-120 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-32) lost both games on the road against the 76ers after a 116-108 loss as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (57-35) has evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Sixers to make 54.4% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst defensive effort in their last 30 games. To compound matters, the Heat continue to struggle with their 3-point shooting. After making only 7 of 30 shots from behind the arc in Game Three, Miami converted on just 7 of their 35 shots from downtown. It’s tough to give too much credit to the Philly defense for this ineffectiveness either — the Heat missed 19 of their 24 shots from 3-point range that were uncontested or lightly contested shots. I do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance for Miami tonight after making only 21.5% of their shots from behind the arc in the two games in Philadelphia. Back at home, the Heat convert 37.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Granted, Duncan Robinson is not playing significant minutes in this series since he will be a defensive liability against James Harden -- and that removes one of the best 3-point shooters in the Miami rotation. But the other Heat players should see more of their 3-pointers drop moving forward and back at home. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing their last two games on the road. Back at home, Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 62 playoff games when favored. Philadelphia’s 54.4% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort in this series. They nailed 16 of their 33 (48%) of their shots from behind the arc. Joel Embiid made one of those 3-pointers — it was a bank shot from the top of the arc. Pretty fortunate after not even attempting a 3-pointer in Game Three. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He had missed nine straight 3-pointers going into Sunday with his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. With Embiid not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable to play off him when he drifts to the perimeter. Harden played his best game in the postseason with 31 points on 8 of 18 shooting while nailing 6 of his 10 shots from downtown. I am not a believer — heck, I have never been a big believer in Harden in the playoffs when the refs call fewer fouls and the pressure is higher — he looks like he is moving in slow motion. His good game on Sunday might have enabled some bad habits tonight. As it is, the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. Now they go back on the road where they made just 14 of their 64 (21.9%) of their 3-pointers. Having a healthy Embiid back helps Philly’s balance on offense — but they are still facing a Heat team that holds their guests to just 33.7% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Miami to play the Heat. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. Miami has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year is on the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-09-22 |
Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks |
|
116-108 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (581) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (582) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-33) looks to bounce back from their 103-101 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (57-23) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): Boston only made 36.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the fourth-lowest shooting effort of the season for them. But the Celtics have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They stay on the road where they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games — and they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Boston is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee may have the lead in this series but there are cracks in the armor. Giannis Antetokounmpo carried the team in Game Three with 42 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists. This team misses Khris Middleton and the 20.1 Points-Per-Game scoring average. The Bucks were third in the NBA in the regular season by scoring 1.15 Points-Per-Possession — but that scoring efficiency has dropped to a 1.0 PPG clip in this series. They are making only 27.9% of their 3-pointers. Jrue Holiday is being asked to pick up the slack from the absence of Middleton — an exile he scored 25 points on Saturday, he took 30 shots from the field and made just 11 of them. He is making only 37.1% of his shots in this series. Since 2020-21, Milwaukee is 13-13 in the 26 games they have played without Middleton — and they are 11-15 ATS in those contests. Their Offensive Efficiency drops from 117.3 points per 100 possessions when Middleton is on the court to 113.4 points per 100 possessions when he is not playing. These are ominous signs for a team that is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bucks — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Milwaukee against the Bucks. 10* NBA Boston-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (581) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-22 |
Heat +2.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
108-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-31) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 99-79 upset loss on the road against Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-35) made this a 2-1 series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami only made 35.1% of their shots in Game Three which was the worst shooting effort in their last 72 games. The Heat appeared out-of-synch with the surprise decision by the Sixers that Joel Embiid was ready to take the court again after passing the concussion protocol (and despite his orbital injury that had him wearing a protective mask). But it was more than just the return of Embiid — Miami could not hit the side of a barn on Friday. They missed 8 of their 10 uncontested shots. They only converted on 29.8% of their jump shots despite the deeper metrics indicating their expected field goal percentage was 48%. The Heat simply need to execute better tonight — better passing and better shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits despite being a road favorite. They stay on the road where they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games as a dog. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia plays their best defensive game of the season by holding the Heat to just 35.1% shooting. The Sixers nailed 16 of their 33 shots from behind the arc for a 48.5% shooting clip. But the troubling aspect for Philadelphia is that they only scored 99 points despite enjoying so much success from distance. The 76ers’ posted only a 111 Offensive Rating in Game Three — and their efficiency actually dropped to scoring 107 points per 100 possessions when Embiid was on the court. Embiid scored a respectable 18 points but he did not attempt a 3-point attempt. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He has missed nine straight 3-pointers — and his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. If Embiid is not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers' offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable playing off him when he drifts to the perimeter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after losing two of their last three games. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 200 to 209.5.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points on the road. 25* NBA Sunday Night Special Feature with the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-22 |
Suns -1.5 v. Mavs |
|
101-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (577) minus the point(s) versus the Dallas (578) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (70-21) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 103-94 loss as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Dallas (57-34) still trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix only shot 44.7% from the field in Game Three which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Suns had made at least 50% of their shots in eight straight games before Friday. They should shoot closer to their 52.6% field goal postseason percentage this afternoon. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Suns have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when favored by up to six points. Furthermore, Phoenix has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Dallas played their best defense of the series on Friday — but while they ranked sixth in the league with their Defensive Efficiency Rating under first-year head coach Jason Kidd, they fell to 14th in Defensive Efficiency in the second half of the season. The Mavericks also have rebounding liability in this series after getting outrebounded by a 45 to 36 margin in Game Three. Dallas has been outrebounded in four straight games by at least nine boards — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after getting outrebounded by at least five rebounds in three straight games. Luka Doncic had a monster game on Friday by scoring 26 points and adding 13 rebounds and dishing out 9 assists. But his teammates only converted 29 of their 65 shots from the field for a 44.6% shooting percentage.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 meetings with the Mavericks — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against them in Dallas. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Phoenix-Dallas ESPN Special with the Phoenix Suns (577) minus the point(s) versus the Dallas (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-22 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 |
Top |
112-142 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (58-31) looks to rebound from their 106-101 upset loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (61-29) evened the series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State was flat after seizing home-court advantage in the opening game of this series despite not playing with the suspended Draymond Green in the second half in Game One. The Warriors made only 42.1% of their shots from the field which was the lowest shooting mark in their last eight games. They missed 31 of their 38 shots from behind the arc for a low 18% field goal percentage from 3-point range. Back at home, Golden State should play much better. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games after a straight-up loss. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Warriors have a 34-10 record on their home court — and their numbers probably betray how good they will perform at home moving forward since the team was rarely at full strength with the Big Three of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson playing together again. And then there is the new emerging “Death Lineup” (PTSD?) which includes All-Star Andrew Wiggins and rising star Jordan Poole. That group overwhelmed Denver in the first two games of the Western Conference Quarterfinals when the Warriors outscored the Nuggets by an average of 18 PPG while scoring 124.5 Points-Per-Game on 53.6% shooting from the field in both games. Golden State was not as prolific on their home court in Game Five of that series in a 102-98 victory — but let’s give them a pass in that game since they were in control of the series (and did still win the game). The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Memphis risks being a bit rusty in this game after the mid-series hiatus since Tuesday to accommodate the television schedule moving forward. They are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games. And while this is just their fourth game in the last 11 days, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games when playing not more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis played their best game on defense by holding the Warriors to a 42.1% shooting percentage in their last five games. But they only made 39.6% of their own shots — and it could have been worse if it was not for Ja Morant who put his team on his back by scoring 47 points while adding 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Morant nailed 15 of his 31 shots from the field — but his teammates only made 21 of 60 shots for a troubling 35% shooting percentage. The Grizzlies will be without Dillon Brooks tonight after he got suspended for his hard foul on Gary Payton, Jr. and elbow injury that will keep him out indefinitely. Memphis is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 playoff games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Golden State against the Warriors.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 opportunities for revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-22 |
Suns v. Mavs |
Top |
94-103 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (56-34) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 129-109 loss on the road to the Suns as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday. Phoenix (70-20) has won four straight games and five of their last six.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS (OR AS A PICK ‘EM): Dallas looked outmatched in their two games in Phoenix — but Luka Doncic had his way in both games. Doncic has scored 80 points in this series after posting 45 points on Wednesday — and he added 12 rebounds and 8 assists in the losing effort. The Mavericks have made 41% of their shots from 3-point land in each of the first two games of this series — but head coach Jason Kidd’s team made 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc in their six-game series with Utah last round. Dallas should play their best game of the series tonight. They have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road. Furthermore, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points on the road. Dallas allowed the Suns to nail 64.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Phoenix shot 50.5% from the field in Game One of this series as well — but the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots in their last two games. Dallas returns home for the first time since April 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Mavs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix posted the seventh best field goal percentage in the history of the NBA playoffs with their 64.5% shooting clip on Wednesday — and it was their best shooting effort of the season. I do expect an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Suns made 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home during the regular season — but that mark drops to a 35.4% clip when playing on the road. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win at home. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games and six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-22 |
Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 |
|
101-106 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (534) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (533) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (60-29) looks to rebound from their 117-116 loss at home to the Warriors as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (58-30) has won ten of their last eleven games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis blew a golden opportunity to take a 1-0 lead in this series after Draymond Green got ejected just before halftime for a dubious flagrant-two foul. The veteran Warriors rallied around each other after the controversial call was made. And now the Grizzlies will be undermanned for this contest with Steven Adams and Killian Tillie out for tonight — and Desmond Bane is questionable with a back injury. But depth is one of the strengths of this team with their bench ranking fifth in the NBA by scoring 38.9 Points-Per-Game. Memphis has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. Memphis remains a bit underappreciated still despite earning the second seed in the Western Conference and posting a 20-5 record despite playing without their best player in Ja Morant when he went down with an injury. This is a deep team loaded with young talent — and they have a reliable Plan B and C if their shots are not falling. The Grizzlies led the NBA in the regular season by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots — and they pulled down 16 offensive rebounds on Sunday. They were fourth in the league by forcing turnovers in 14.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of concern for the Warriors as their turnover rate of 15.0% during the regular season was the second-worst in the NBA. Golden State committed 18 turnovers in Game One. Memphis joined Phoenix as the only two teams in the league to rank in the top six in both Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. They allowed the Warriors to make 48.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. They host this game where they have a 32-13 record — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games as a home dog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog overall. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They are also 5-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point spread loss. And while the Warriors have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Warriors start this game on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the Western Conference Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in Memphis against the Grizzlies. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Memphis Grizzlies (534) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-03-22 |
Bucks v. Celtics -4 |
|
86-109 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (532) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (531) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (55-32) looks to rebound from their 55-32 upset loss at home to the Bucks as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (56-32) took a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Many observers are overreacting to the Celtics' 12-point loss on Sunday by suggesting that the oddsmakers and much of the betting public overreacted to their four-game sweep of the Brooklyn Nets last round. Settle down, Sparky. Three things can be true at once: the Nets were overrated, the Celtics are very good, and that is not a shocking development that the reigning NBA champions won a playoff game (many of these same observers made it a daily habit to pretend they would be better basketball coaches than Mike Budenholzer). Boston had been on a five-game winning streak before the loss — and they shot a season-low 33.3% from the field on Sunday. The Celtics have still won 30 of their last 37 games. They should shoot much better tonight. Boston has covered the point spread 9 straight games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after an upset loss. Marcus Smart is questionable tonight as he deals with a stinger in his shoulder and a more concerning quad injury he suffered later in Game One — his potential absence keeps me from upgrading this play to a 25* rating. But even without Smart tonight, Boston should play much better at home — they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in the playoffs when favored. Milwaukee may be due for a letdown after outscoring their last four opponents by +20.5 Points-Per-Game. This recent run came after the injury to Khris Middleton which triggered a sense of urgency for this team — but this is the first game they are playing since that setback when they can let up a bit having retaken home-court advantage. Remember — they were sluggish in the first two games against Chicago before losing Middleton. As it is, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win as an underdog. And while they have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. By holding the Celtics to 33.3% shooting, they played their best game on defense in their last five contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing their last opponent to make more than 35% of their shots. Give Budenholzer credit for shifting the early moment in Game One to his side by installing a full-court press that got the Celtics out of their rhythm and get into their half-court offense too late in the shot clock. That is something that Boston head coach Ime Udoka should fix for Game Two. But the Celtics played good defense against the Bucks who only made 41.1% of their shots en route to a mere 101 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo turned the ball over five times. Jrue Holiday made some 3s — but he missed 10 of his 15 shots from inside the arc. Milwaukee has outrebounded their last four opponents by at least six boards after enjoying a 54-48 edge on Sunday against the Celtics. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after outrebounding their last four opponents by at least five boards. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: I would feel worse about the potential loss of Smart if the Bucks had a healthy Middleton — but Jayson Tatum can shift over to defend Holiday with Robert Williams III roaming to offer help with Al Horford on Antetokounmpo. Boston has still covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against the Bucks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last opportunities to host Milwaukee. 20* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Boston Celtics (532) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-22 |
Mavs v. Suns -5.5 |
|
114-121 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (524) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (523) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (68-30) has won three of their last four games after their 115-109 victory at New Orleans as a 3-point favorite to end that series in six games on Thursday. Dallas (56-32) has won four of their last five games with their 98-96 upset win at Utah as a 1-point underdog to end that series in six games on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix is back to full strength with Devin Booker’s surprise return to the court in Game Six on Thursday. The Suns have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after a win on the road. Phoenix did allow the Pelicans to nail 50% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns overcame that shooting effort by making 60% of their own shots from the field which was the fifth straight games where they shot at least 50%. Phoenix has then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four straight contests. Back on their home court, the Suns have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 34 home games when favored by six points or less. Phoenix has covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Dallas had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory on the road by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And while the Mavericks have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has won nine straight games against the Mavericks — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 meetings against them. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to host Dallas in Phoenix. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (524) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-22 |
76ers v. Heat -7 |
|
92-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (522) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (521) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-30) has won four of their last five games after beating Atlanta by a 97-94 score as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday to close out that series in five games. Philadelphia (57-30) has won six of their last eight games with their 132-97 victory at Toronto as a 1.5-point favorite on Thursday to end that series in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami has a long injury list for this game which is keeping me from upgrading this play to a 25* rating. Kyle Lowry remains out with a hamstring strain. Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris, and Caleb Martin are all questionable with various ailments. The update this afternoon is that Butler and Herro are expected to play with the other players still a game-time decision. The Heat have depth — and Bam Adebayo — so they should be fine tonight. Adebayo should have a big game against a 76ers team that is without Joel Embiid as he recovers from a concussion. Miami has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Heat have played three straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after playing an Under in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They host the first two games of this series where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games, Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in the playoffs when favored. And in their last 6 opening games to a new playoff series, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. The 76ers come off one of their best games of the season. They made 58.0% of their shots in their series-clinching victory against the Hawks which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. They held Atlanta to just 39.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 18 contests. But the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road by 20 or more points. Without Embiid, head coach Doc Rivers has the choice of some less than enviable options to play at center. Matisse Thybulle is not a threat on the offensive end of the court which will allow the Heat to play off him and offer help to James Harden. Georges Niang did not have a good series against the Raptors. And while Rivers could go small by playing Paul Reed at the five, that would leave Philly very vulnerable against Adebayo. As it is, the 76ers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Sixers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when an underdog in the 6.5 to 12 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in Miami against the Heat. And while the 76ers upset the Heat in their last meeting by a 113-106 score as an 8-point underdog on March 21st, Miami has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when avenging an upset loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points. 20* NBA Philadelphia-Miami TNT Special with the Miami Heat (522) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-01-22 |
Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 |
|
117-116 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (516) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (515) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (60-28) has won four of their last five games after beating Minnesota on the road by a 114-106 score as a 1.5-point favorite to end that series in six games on Friday. Golden State (57-30) has won nine of their last ten games with their 102-98 victory against Denver as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: I think Memphis enters this series a bit underappreciated still despite earning the second seed in the Western Conference and posting a 20-5 record despite playing without their best player in Ja Morant when he went down with an injury. This is a deep team loaded with young talent — and they have a reliable Plan B and C if their shots are not falling. The Grizzlies led the NBA in the regular season by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots. They were fourth in the league by forcing turnovers in 14.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of concern for the Warriors as their turnover rate of 15.0% during the regular season was the second-worst in the NBA. The flip side of when Stephen Curry gets its going is that he can be loose with the basketball. Memphis’ bench scored 38.9 Points-Per-Game during the regular season, the fifth-best mark. They joined Phoenix as the only two teams in the league to rank in the top six in both Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. They are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. They host this game where they have a 32-12 record — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a home dog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog overall. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They are also 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point spread win. The Warriors start this game on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Western Conference Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Memphis against the Grizzlies. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Memphis Grizzlies (516) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-01-22 |
Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 |
|
101-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (514) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (513) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (55-31) is on a five-game winning streak after completing their four-game sweep against Brooklyn with a 116-112 upset victory as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Milwaukee (55-32) has won seven of their last nine games after dispatching Chicago in five games with their 116-100 victory against the Bulls as a 12.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bucks tend to start slow in a new playoff series under head coach Mike Budenholzer. They have finished below the oddsmaker’s team total listed for them in nine of their last 10 Game Ones in the playoffs. They have underachieved their expected field goal percentage in those games by an average of 5 percentage points. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 Game Ones when playing on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest since their last game. While the Bucks were able to take their game to another level against the Bulls without Khris Middleton, they will miss their second-leading scorer against the Celtics. The Milwaukee halfcourt offense can get stagnant when playing without Middleton — and Budenholzer has a problem in the minutes in this series when he needs to spell either Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jrue Holiday and not have them on the court together. The Bucks open this series on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games as an underdog overall — and they are 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 playoff games as an underdog. Boston only made 47.2% of their shots in Game Four against the Nets which was tied for the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win against a division rival. And in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest, they are 3-1-1 ATS. Boston hosts this game where they are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against the Bucks — including 4 straight point spread covers when playing at home. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (514) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-22 |
Grizzlies -1 v. Wolves |
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114-106 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (571) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (59-28) has won three of their last four games with their 111-109 win against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (49-39) hopes to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINT(S): Memphis only made 41.5% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games — but they still found a way to win. The Grizzlies controlled the glass by outrebounding the Timberwolves by a 53 to 42 margin including 18 boards on the offensive glass. They also forced 23 turnovers. Creating additional scoring opportunities as a Plan B for a poor shooting night has been integral to Memphis’ surprising success this season. The Grizzlies led the NBA in the regular season by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots. They were also fourth in the NBA by forcing turnovers in 14.9% of their opponent’s possessions. While forcing turnovers is not an effective strategy at the NBA level given the quality of the ball carriers, Memphis has made this dynamic an important component in this series as they lead all teams in the playoffs by forcing turnovers at an 18.3% clip, a very-high mark in the NBA. The Grizzlies should shoot better tonight after only hitting 7 of their 28 shots from 3-point range — they were a 35.2% team from 3-point range in the regular season. Jaren Jackson, Jr. was, once again, in foul trouble as he played only 17 minutes before fouling out. Depth is one of the other areas where Memphis has an edge. Desmond Bane has stepped up to score 28.3 Points-Per-Game with at least 25 points in the last three games — and he has nailed 18 shots from 3-point range in those games. Ja Morant struggled for most of Game Five with only 12 points after the first three quarters — but he poured in 18 points in the fourth quarter. If that version of Morant returns tonight, the Grizzlies should win this game comfortably. Minnesota has demonstrated they have trouble handling playoff pressure by blowing big leads. They handed back a 26-point lead in Game Three despite playing on their home court. And then on Tuesday, they entered the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves had an 11-point lead that they squandered. After exploding 130 points in Game One, the Timberwolves are averaging only 104.8 PPG in the last four games in this series on 42.5% shooting from the field. They have scored more than 109 points just once in these last four games — and they have not cleared 96 points twice in the last four. Minnesota remained competitive in Game Five because they held the Grizzlies to 41.5% shooting — but that was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. The T-Wolves rank just 10th in the postseason in offensive rebounding (24.8%) and eighth in forcing turnovers (14.9%). If their shots are not falling, their Plan B is not as compelling.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has demonstrated that they are the better team when they can bring their “A” game. After a flat effort in Game Five, look for the Grizzlies to end this series tonight. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games with the Total set in the 220s. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Memphis Grizzlies (571) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-28-22 |
Suns v. Pelicans +3.5 |
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115-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (564) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (563) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (40-49) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 112-97 loss on the road against the Suns as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix (67-20) has taken a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans only made 40% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But this remains a team much better than their record after a slow 1-13 start to the season. Brandon Ingram is a rising superstar in the league and the trade for C.J. McCollum has transformed the team. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by double-digits. New Orleans has a decisive edge in this series on the boards. They won the rebounding battle by a 47-40 margin in Game Five which was actually the closest the Suns have come to matching the Pelicans on the boards in this series. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning the rebounding battle by at least five rebounds in three straight games. They return home to an energetic crowd where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit win at home. And in their last 38 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last game, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of these contests. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix remains without their best scoring option in Devin Booker who is out for at least the rest of this series. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 62 games when playing with revenge for a same-season loss. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Pelicans (564) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-27-22 |
Nuggets v. Warriors -8.5 |
|
98-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 45 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (556) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (56-30) had their eight-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in their 126-121 upset loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 4.5-point underdog. Denver (49-37) trails in the series by a 3-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State should rebound with a strong effort tonight to close out the series. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games at home after a loss. The Warriors allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 28 games. Golden State made 50% of their shots — but that was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Denver simply cannot stop the Warriors' offensive attack. The Nuggets were 19th in the league after the All-Star break by allowing 115.4 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four straight games. Golden State should play better on defense tonight. They were second in the NBA in the regular season by holding their opponents to just 107.7 points per 100 possessions — and they were third in half-court defense by holding their opponents to 91.2 points per 100 possessions. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 home games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on the road. The Warriors have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games — including seven of their nine games this season — after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games when avenging an upset loss on the road where they were favored. Denver is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Warriors in Golden State. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Golden State Warriors (556) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-26-22 |
Pelicans v. Suns -6 |
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97-112 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (544) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (543) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (66-20) looks to rebound from their 118-103 upset loss on the road against the Pelicans as a 2-point underdog on Sunday night. New Orleans (40-48) evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after an upset loss. Even without the injured Devin Booker, the Suns made 50.6% of their shots on Sunday. The Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four straight games. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 playoff games when favored. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games on the road after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset win by 15 or more points as a home underdog. New Orleans’ defense is an issue in this series since the Suns are consistently making 50% of their shots. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing their last four opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (544) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-26-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -5.5 |
Top |
109-111 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-28) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on the road to the Timberwolves by a 119-118 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (49-38) has evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota had most things go right for them in Game Four. They made 47.3% of their shots from the field — their best shooting effort since Game One — and nailed 18 of their 36 (50%) shots from behind the arc. After losing the free throw attempt battle by at least four shots in each of the first three games of the series, they took 40 shots from the charity stripe on Sunday — and they converted 31 of these shots which were six more than all of Memphis’ attempts from the free-throw line. Karl Anthony-Towns exploded with 33 points while steering away from the foul problems that plagued him in the previous two games. Ja Morant only scored 11 points on 4 of 13 shooting. Yet despite all these fortunate events, Minnesota only won the game by one point. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset win at home. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Taylor Jenkins ripped the referees after the game for the foul disparity — look for the Grizzlies to once again win the free throw attempt battle back on their home court. Morant should play better back at home as well. He has a 52.3% effective field goal percentage with a 40.4% shooting clip at home as opposed to his 46.6% effective field goal percentage and 29.6% mark from 3-point range on the road. Memphis has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-25-22 |
Raptors +8 v. 76ers |
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103-88 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (533) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (49-37) staved off elimination on Saturday with their 110-102 upset win against Philadelphia as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (54-32) still holds a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto pulled out Game Four despite only making 42.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They made just 8 of their 34 shots from behind the arc — so they should make more than 24% of their shots from 3-point range tonight. The Raptors will be without Fred VanVleet tonight as he is dealing with a hip injury — but they may be better off without him when considering the liability he has been on defense in this series. The 76ers are scoring at a 128.6 points per 100 possession rate with VanVleet on the court. They are getting outscored by -29.1 points per 100 possessions in this series with VanVleet on the court. The healthy return of Scottie Barnes in Game Four really helps this Toronto team. The rookie pulled down 11 boards while playing 25:34 minutes. Head coach Nick Nurse can rely on Barnes and Siakam Pascal to be the primary ball handlers. The Raptors score at a 128.9 points per 100 possession with Barnes and Pascal on the court together — and the duo is still scoring 124.4 points per 100 possessions even when not joined by VanVleet on the court. More importantly, Toronto holds their opponents to scoring at a 111.4 points per 100 possession rate with Barnes and Pascal on the court but without VanVleet. A benefit of not having VanVleet on the court is that Nurse can put five players on the court that are already comfortable in switching the players they are defending. The Raptors had been on a four-game losing streak before their win on Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing four of their last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a win at home. Furthermore, Toronto has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing for the second time in five days. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Philadelphia played their best defensive game in their last 13 contests by holding the Raptors to 42.0% shooting. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after playing their last two games on the road. The 76ers return home where they have covered the point spread in just 10 of their last 16 games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Joel Embiid will play tonight — but his shot seems to be impacted by the injured thumb on his right hand. He missed 9 of his 16 shots including his only 3-point attempt on Saturday.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Toronto has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (533) plays the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-24-22 |
Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 |
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103-118 |
Win
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100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527) in Game Four for their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (39-48) looks to rebound from their 114-111 loss at home to the Suns as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Phoenix (66-19) took a 2-1 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should bounce-back and play well tonight. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing their second game in five days. The Pelicans were certainly in position to win the game — despite making only 11 of their 32 (34%) shots from behind the arc. New Orleans should continue to dominate the boards tonight as they have this entire postseason. The Pelicans have outrebounded each of their five playoff opponents by at least nine boards while winning the rebounding battle by at least ten rebounds in each of the first three games in this series. New Orleans has then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 rebounds. Phoenix rallied to make 50.6% of their shots playing without the injured Devin Booker who will remain out for at least the next two weeks. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 61 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (528) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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