07-29-22 |
BC v. Saskatchewan +1 |
Top |
32-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saskatchewan Roughriders (684) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (683). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (4-3) has lost two straight games after their 31-21 upset loss at home to Toronto as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. British Columbia (4-1) has won four of their first five games this season after their 17-12 win against Hamiton as a 9.5-point favorite last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROUGHRIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Saskatchewan has been dealing with a COVID outbreak over the last two weeks — but head coach Craig Dickenson claims that his team is now on the “tail end” of the challenge and is getting back to full strength. Dickenson was forced to turn to third-string quarterback Jake Dolega last week with both Cody Fajardo and Mason Fine out with positive COVID tests. Fajardo has been confirmed as tonight’s starter. The Roughriders were in position to pull the upset last week in their second-straight game against the Argonauts. They led 15-11 at halftime and went into the fourth quarter with a 21-14 lead. They had the ball trailing by a 24-21 score late in the game — but a disastrous fumble was returned for a 10-yard defensive touchdown to ice the game for Toronto. This remains a talented Saskatchewan team with Grey Cup aspirations after losing to the two-time champions Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the West Division Final last year by a 21-17 score. The Roughriders have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after getting upset at home as a favorite by double-digits. Saskatchewan has lost two in a row while not covering the point spread in either game — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing two of their last three games and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. They return home where they are 3-1 this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +10.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Lions are getting good play at quarterback from former Ohio Bobcat Nathan O’Rourke in his first season as their starter. But this is just the second game on the road for British Columbia this season after only beating the lowly Ottawa Redblacks by a 34-31 score. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against West Division foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when priced in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in July. Saskatchewan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in July. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Month with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (684) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (683). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-21 |
Toronto v. Hamilton -4.5 |
Top |
24-23 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (688) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (687). THE SITUATION: Hamilton (4-4) looks to rebound from their 23-20 upset loss in overtime to Montreal as a 3.5-point favorite back on October 2nd. Toronto (5-3) has won two in a row after their 35-16 win against Ottawa as a 9.5-point favorite last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGER-CATS MINUS THE POINTS: The situation offers Hamilton simply a huge advantage — they have not played in nine days and they host an Argonauts team that just played five days ago. The Tiger-Cats have much to prove after blowing a 14-point lead to the Alouettes. Hamilton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The T-Cats play tough defense — they are holding their opponents to just 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 326.1 total YPG. That loss broke an eleven-game winning streak at home at Tim Horton’s Field. They are still outscoring their guests by +5.3 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by seven points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after the first month of the season. Toronto scored three non-offensive touchdowns on Wednesday against the Redblacks — they scored on 71 and 82-yard interceptions returned for touchdowns and they scored on a 23-yard blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Those scores obscured the fact that they were outgained by -153 net yards while gaining just 253 total yards. The Argonauts are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning two in a row against East Division opponents. Despite their 5-3 record, Toronto is being outscored and outgained this season. Now they go back on the road where they are 1-3 this season and getting outscored by -9.3 net PPG because they only score 16.2 PPG away from home. They are 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 games on the road — and they are 9-22-1 ATS in their last road games as an underdog. The Argonauts have not fared well on these special Monday games for Canadian Labour Day or Thanksgiving — they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on a Monday.
FINAL TAKE: Former Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli will benefit from the extended time to practice and prepare for this game after being rushed back from injury to get back under center with quarterback Dane Evans out with an injury since mid-September. He completed 23 of 31 passes for 223 yards in the loss to Montreal. Hamilton will be looking to avenge a 17-16 loss at Toronto in a pick ‘em game back on September 10th — and the Tiger-Cats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when motivated by revenge. 25* CFL Monday Game of the Year with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (688) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (687). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-21 |
Calgary v. Saskatchewan -4 |
Top |
22-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Saskatchewan Roughriders (664) minus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (663). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (5-3) looks to avenge a 23-17 upset loss at Calgary as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Calgary (3-5) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROUGHRIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Saskatchewan has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Roughriders outgained the Stampeders in that game by +90 net yards — but they could not overcome the two-touchdown deficit they spotted them in the first quarter. Saskatchewan did hold the Stamps to just 268 yards in the game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Now they return home where they are 4-1 this season with a +6.6 net Points-Per-Game margin. They are holding their visitors to just 17.2 PPG and 326.2 total YPG. Saskatchewan has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in October. Calgary is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after winning at least two of their last three games. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell was not able to complete the game with a shoulder injury but he is expected to start tonight — although he may not be at 100%. It is been an up-and-down year for the veteran — he has thrown eight interceptions already while getting sacked 25 times. The Stampeders appear to have taken a step back since the lost season last year from the pandemic. They are being outgained by -28.2 net YPG. They have averaged only 273.5 total YPG in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after not averaging more than 275 YPG in their last two games. Calgary has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in October — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against West Division opponents.
FINAL TAKE: This game looms large for the Roughriders since the Stampeders have been the thorn in their sides for years. Saskatchewan has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to exact same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when avenging a loss where they were upset as a road favorite. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Year with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (664) minus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (663). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-21 |
Toronto v. Saskatchewan -3.5 |
Top |
16-30 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saskatchewan Roughriders (674) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (673). Saskatchewan (3-2) has lost two games in a row after a 33-9 loss at Winnipeg as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Toronto (3-2) has won two of their last three games after a 17-16 win against Hamilton in a pick ‘em contest last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROUGHRIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Saskatchewan has scored only 17 combined points in their last two games as they demonstrated that they are not at the level of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in that home-and-home series. But the Bombers are the class of the Canadian Football League right now. This remains a team that was stable during the lost season from COVID last year. Second-year head coach Craig Dickenson is back after taking this team to West Division Finals in 2019 where they lost to Winnipeg after a 13-5 campaign where they won the West Division. Former Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo is also back from that team after his breakout campaign in 2019 when he was finally given the keys to be a team’s clear starting quarterback. Fajardo was a question this week dealing with a possible concussion — but after taking part in limited practices this week, he will be the starter. Saskatchewan has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 3-1 this season with an average winning margin of +6.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their four visitors to just 17.5 PPG and 310.0 Yards-Per-Game. The Roughriders led the CFL in 2019 in total defense while ranking second in points allowed. While there was turnover in their front seven, they returned their top six defensive backs from that group. Saskatchewan is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games when favored. Toronto only gained 330 yards in their one-point win against the Tiger-Cats last week. The Argonauts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three. This is a team that made significant changes from the 2019 group that finished 4-14. Calgary’s former quarterback coach Ryan Dinwiddie was hired as the new head coach in 2020. Dinwiddie decided on the 33-year-old McLeod Bethel-Thompson as his starting quarterback in the opening game this season before he turning to former Georgia State QB Nick Arbuckle. The shuffling suggests uncertainty around Arbuckle who they signed to be their presumed starter in February of this year before adding Bethel-Thomson in May. Arbuckle completed 23 of 37 passes for 236 yards last Friday — but he threw two interceptions. Now the Boatmen hit the road where they are just 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 games — and they are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 road games as a money-line underdog. The Argonauts are 1-2 on the road this season where they are scoring only 16.3 PPG — and they are getting outscored by -7.7 PPG. The team is dealing with turmoil with their defensive coaching staff after defensive coordinator Glen Young was placed on personal leave in a situation that sounds like he is refusing to get a COVID vaccination. Rich Stubler has been brought in as the new co-defensive coordinator while former Saskatchewan head coach Chris Jones is rumored to be heading to the team as a consultant or analyst.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has been inconsistent this season which is not a surprise for a group that has experienced so much turnover since their bad 2019 campaign (and then not playing last year). This is a “gotta-have-it” situation for the Roughriders — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing a team from the (inferior) East Division. Saskatchewan should overwhelm the Argonauts back at home. 25* CFL Friday Television Game of the Year with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (674) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-21 |
Edmonton Elks +3 v. BC |
Top |
21-16 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Edmonton Elks (671) plus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (672). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (0-2) remained winless in the new Canadian Football League season with their 30-13 upset loss at home to Montreal as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. British Columbia (1-1) pulled off their first win of the season last Thursday in a 15-9 upset win at Calgary as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ELKS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were high for Edmonton this season coming off their loss in the East Division Finals when they last played in November 2019. They hired Scott Milanovich to be their head coach last year before COVID led to the cancellation of the season. Milanovich took a job in the NFL this year which prompted general manager Brock Sunderland to hire former offensive coordinator Jaime Elizondo as the new head coach. Elizondo reunites with quarterback Trevor Harris who had some big regular-season campaigns under his coaching. Harris has passed for more than 4000 yards four times in his CFL career — and he leads the CFL with 566 passing yards so far this season. With wide receivers Greg Ellinson, Armanti Edwards, and Derel Walker, the Elks have one of the most dynamic wide receiving corps in the league. But Red Zone offense has been a problem with Edmonton scoring only one touchdown in their first two games. The Elks are dominating the yardage game as they have outgained their two opponents by +145.0 net YPG. Edmonton should play well tonight behind a veteran quarterback with plenty of CFL experience. The Elks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss at home by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss by 17 or more points. They have scored only 12 and 13 points in their first two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last two games. And they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games at home. British Columbia finished in last place in the West Division in 2019 with a 5-13 record. The organization hired former Ottawa head coach Rick Campbell soon after to lead the rebuild. Quarterback Mike Reilly did not play in the first week with an elbow which cleared the way for former Ohio QB Nate Rourke to get his first professional start. Reilly was a surprise starter last week with his elbow feeling better — and he completed 26 of 33 passes for 342 yards. He will likely play tonight — but who knows how that elbow is doing? Forcing five Stampeders’ turnovers played a big role in the upset victory. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing a game where no more than 28 combined points were scored. And while the Leos outgained Calgary by 82 net yards, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by 70 or more yards. BC’s offensive line was their biggest problem two years ago — and the Elks' defensive line was tied for tops in the CFL in 2019 with 58 sacks (and that core group is back). The Lions return home for their first home game of the season — but the 50% maximum capacity regulations in Canada will limit the attendance to just 12,500 fans. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against fellow West Division foes — and Edmonton has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against British Columbia. 25* CFL Thursday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Edmonton Elks (671) plus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-19 |
Hamilton -2.5 v. Winnipeg |
Top |
12-33 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (895) minus the points versus the Winnipeg Bombers (896) in the 107th Grey Cup. THE SITUATION: Hamilton (16-3) reached the Grey Cup Championship last Sunday with their 36-16 win over Edmonton as a 7-point favorite. Winnipeg (13-7) joined them last week in this game with their 20-13 win at Saskatchewan as a 2.5-point underdog. The Grey Cup takes place this season on a neutral field in Calgary at the home of the Stampeders.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGER-CATS MINUS THE POINTS: This Bombers team is intriguing with a former Most Outstanding Player under center in Zack Collaros. The former Cincinnati Bearcats’ quarterback took Hamilton to the Grey Cup but never hoisted the championship trophy for them. This Winnipeg team began the year with Matt Nichols as their quarterback before he suffered a season-ending injury. They then muddled along with Chris Streveler who offers more to the team with his legs before acquiring Collaros at the trade deadline. Collaros has averaged 9.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in his three starts since taking over under center for this team after he got healthy from his own injury. But, while I like the story, I absolutely hate the situation for the Bombers. This is Winnipeg’s third straight game on the road — as well as their fourth in their last five games. They are being outgained in yardage in their eleven games away from home this season — they are 5-6 on the road overall. The Bombers have also pulled off three straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after pulling off two straight upset wins and they have also failed to for the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after winning two straight games on the road as the dog. Despite these upset wins, they have been outgained in yardage overall in their last three games. They live-and-die by forcing turnovers — they are 2nd in the CFL with a +8 net turnover margin. But turnovers can be fickle which worries me in a one-and-done game. Winnipeg has had a +3 and +2 net turnover advantage in their two playoff games this season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in at least two straight games. And while the Bombers have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Hamilton has been the best team in the CFL all season — they lead the league in total offense and passing offense while outscoring their opponents by +12.0 PPG. They are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Led by the league’s Most Outstanding Player in wide receiver Brandon Banks, the Tiger-Cats lead the CFL with 31 pass plays of at least 30 yards. They had three Big Plays in the passing game of 48, 47, and 34 yards last week in their win over the Eskimos. This is an area of weakness of the Bombers’ defense that is last in the CFL by allowing 32 Big Plays in the passing game this season. Hamilton’s quarterback is the second-year former Tulsa signal-caller, Dane Evans, who took over after the season-ending injury to Jeremiah Masoli. Since September, the gunslinger has averaged 374 passing YPG with 17 touchdown passes and just 8 interceptions. The T-Cats have been more consistent away from home this year with a 6-3 record while outscoring these opponents by +9.8 PPG and outgaining them by +58.4 net YPG. Hamilton is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. The Tiger-Cats have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: Hamilton won both meetings with Winnipeg this season — but neither of those games saw Colloras under center. The T-Cats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Bombers while being fully aware that they cannot turn the ball over against this opportunistic defense. 25* CFL Playoff Game of the Year with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (895) minus the points versus the Winnipeg Bombers (896) in the 107th Grey Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Winnipeg v. Calgary UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
33-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (687) and the Calgary Stampeders (688). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (10-6) enters this game looking to build off their 35-24 win over Montreal last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. Calgary (10-5) looks to build off their 30-28 win over Saskatchewan as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Bombers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game flew over the 46.5 point Total, Winnipeg has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the number. Over their last three games, the Blue Bombers are scoring only 18.0 PPG. Winnipeg has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against West Division foes. Calgary has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 8 points or less. Additionally, the Stampeders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss
|
09-13-19 |
Ottawa v. BC UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
5-29 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (689) and the British Columbia Lions (690). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (3-8) has lost four straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 46-17 upset loss at home Toronto despite being a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. British Columbia (1-10) looks to find a victory after losing at Montreal last Friday by a 21-16 score as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks are on the verge of losing complete control of their season after losing to Calgary in the Grey Cup last November. But this remains a proud franchise under head coach Rick Campbell who has been the skipper here since the football team was reformed in the Canadian Football League back in 2014. Expect this team to respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed by a bad Toronto team. Ottawa has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Campbell has been benched Dominique Davis at quarterback with the hopes that the veteran Jonathan Jennings could give his team a spark. Jennings completed 33 of 42 passes last week for 327 yards in the losing effort. Ottawa had 354 passing yards overall in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Redblacks now go back on the road where they are scoring only 18.6 PPG while averaging 303.6 total YPG. Over their last three games, this team is scoring only 14.0 PPG along with 338.0 total YPG. Last week’s game finished well above the 51 point total — but Ottawa has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. The Redblacks have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 63 combined points were scored. Ottawa did allow 487 yards last week while allowing the Argonauts to average 8.1 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. Turnovers are killing this team as they have endured a -13 net turnover margin this season after losing the turnover battle in two straight games. But the Redblacks have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in at least two straight games. Ottawa has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of September. British Columbia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in September. Despite their seven-game losing streak, this Lions team is playing better defense as they have held their last three opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 298.0 total YPG. But British Columbia is generating just 307.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Lions have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Furthermore, BC has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by 8 points or less. Now this team returns home where they have scored only 14.2 PPG while averaging just 230.7 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first time since Week Four when the Lions were favored on the road against Toronto — and they won that game by an 18-17 score. British Columbia has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. Expect a low scoring game with at least one of these offenses continuing to struggle to score. 25* CFL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (689) and the British Columbia Lions (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-03-19 |
Edmonton v. Calgary +1 |
Top |
18-24 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Calgary Stampeders (696) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Edmonton Eskimos (695). THE SITUATION: Calgary (4-2) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 17-16 win at Ottawa last Thursday as a 6-point favorite. Edmonton (4-2) has won two of their last three games after their dominant 26-0 shutout win at home against Toronto last Thursday as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STAMPEDERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Calgary dominated the Redblacks last week in the rematch of last November’s Grey Cup — the reigning champions outgained Ottawa by a 493 to 221 yard margin while controlling the time of possession by being on offense for over 37 minutes of that game. Turnovers and the Stampeders inability to get into the end zone kept that game close before Calgary secured the victory with a last-second game-winning field goal. The Stamps should build off the momentum of that win as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Calgary has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. And the Stampeders have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +120 yards. Calgary is without their starting quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell who is out with an injury but they are getting good play from backup QB Nick Arbuckle. The former Georgia State quarterback completed 30 of 37 passes for 370 yards against the Redblacks defense last week. The Stampeders are led by their defense that has held their last two opponents to just 16 points apiece — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. And this is the time of the year where this team steps up their play as they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games played in the month of August. Edmonton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 37 of their last 58 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with at least eight days between games. Edmonton defeated the Argonauts last week with the help of +2 net turnover margin via Toronto’s four turnovers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they both of their losses have occurred this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. The Eskimos have also failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 road games when favored by up to 7 points — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last nine situations. Led by offseason free-agent signee Trevor Harris, Edmonton is scoring 26.8 PPG while averaging 428.0 total YPG. But this team is last in the CFL by scoring touchdowns in just 47% of their drives in the Red Zone. Furthermore, the Eskimos see their offensive production decline to just 21.3 PPG in their three games on the road while averaging 371.0 total YPG away from home which is more than 50 YPG below their overall season average.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since last September 8th when Edmonton pulled the upset as a home underdog getting 2 points in their 48-42 victory over the Stampeders. Look for Calgary to earn their revenge behind an increasingly confident Arbuckle under center who led his team to a comeback victory on the road last week against a good Ottawa team (who just upset Montreal on the road on Friday). 25* CFL West Division Game of the Year with the Calgary Stampeders (696) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Edmonton Eskimos (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-02-19 |
Ottawa +7.5 v. Montreal |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ottawa Redblacks (693) plus the points versus the Montreal Alouettes (694). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (2-4) has lost four straight games after their narrow 17-16 loss at home to Calgary last Friday as a 6-point underdog. Montreal (3-2) pulled off their third straight upset victory in a row back on July 20th with their 20-10 victory over Edmonton as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBLACKS PLUS THE POINTS: It was a heartbreaking loss for this Ottawa team with head coach Rick Campbell conceding a controversial late safety in a maneuver that ended up backfiring with the Stampeders winning the game on a last-second field goal. But this remains a well-coached team led by the six-year veteran in Campbell alongside coordinators Jaime Elizondo and Noel Thorpe. Remember, this franchise lost to Calgary in last year’s Grey Cup after winning the championship two years earlier. And this is an extremely important game for them having already lost in their previous encounter with the Alouettes back on July 13th by a 36-19 score despite being a 9-point home favorite in that game. A second loss to Montreal would hand them the important tie-breaker regarding playoff implications. The Redblacks should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after suffering at least two straight losses. The defense gave up 351 passing yards to the Stamps in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Ottawa managed only 221 yards on offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in not only 18 of their last 24 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game but they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to gain at least 225 yards. The good news for the Redblacks is that they are getting back their starting quarterback Dominique Davis who missed the last two games with an injury. Jonathan Jennings was efficient last Friday in his absence by completing 15 of 18 passes for 125 yards — but the offense is more dynamic under the former East Carolina star in Davis who is averaging 7.26 Yards-per-Passing-Attempt while adding 5.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game with 5 touchdowns on the ground. Ottawa goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games with the Total set at least at 52. The Redblacks are also very dangerous underdogs under Campbell as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. And in their last 5 games against fellow East Division opponents, Ottawa has covered the point spread 4 times. Montreal may have received their bye week at the worst time as it might derail their recent momentum under QB Vernon Adams who has jumpstarted the Alouettes offense since taking over for the injured Antonio Pipkin. Montreal has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after pulling off at least two straight upset wins — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit upset win as the dog. The Alouettes have benefitted from a +8 net turnover margin this season after enjoying a +2 turnover margin in their last game against the Eskimos. That came on the heels of a +3 turnover margin in their previous game against this Ottawa team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after sporting a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games. The rematch is in Montreal where the Alouettes are 2-0 this season — but they are only outgaining their visitors by +19.0 net YPG. Montreal has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 12 games played on a Friday night, the Alouettes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Ottawa has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 meetings with the Alouettes — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played in Montreal. 25* CFL East Division Game of the Year with the Ottawa Redblacks (693) plus the points versus the Montreal Alouettes (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-26-19 |
Winnipeg v. Hamilton +2.5 |
Top |
15-23 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (686) plus the point(s) versus the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (685). THE SITUATION: Hamilton (4-1) returns to action after a bye week coming off a 30-23 victory over Calgary back on July 13th as a 4-point favorite. Winnipeg (5-0) remained unscathed this season with their 31-1 victory at home over Ottawa last Friday as an 11.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGER-CATS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a potential preview to this year’s Grey Cup championship on the last Sunday in November. Hamilton leads the CFL by scoring 37.4 PPG while ranking second in the league by allowing only 20.0 PPG. Winnipeg is second in the league by scoring 33.8 PPG while leasing the CFL by limiting their opponents to 16.0 PPG. This is only the fifth time since 1959 in the CFL that two teams are facing off with only one loss between both teams who have played at least five games apiece. The Tiger-Cats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home — and they will benefit from the extra week off to rest and prepare for this showdown. Hamilton has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home at Tim Horton’s Field. They are led by a dynamic quarterback in Jeremiah Masoli whois completing 70% of his passes this season. The former Oregon Duck star has a great weapon in wide receiver Brandon Beeks who leads the CFL with 506 receiving yards so far this season. The T-Cats also lead the league with 18 sacks on defense. They are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Friday night contests which is a good harbinger for this prime-time game. Winnipeg had covered the point spread in all five of their games this year while accomplishing this feat as double-digit favorites in their last two games. But the Blue Bombers have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games as the favorite. Winnipeg has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last contest. But this Bombers’ team is once again very dependent on forcing turnovers. While they enjoy a +5 net turnover margin for the year, the Regression Gods are often very fickle when doling out the luck for the bouncing (and tipped) ball. Their quarterback, Matt Nichols, is still without one of his best weapons in Chris Matthews as the wide receiver remains out with an injury. This undefeated Winnipeg team is installed as the small favorite in this game despite being on the road — yet they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg may be due for a letdown in this showdown after generating their first 5-0 start to a season since 1960. And Hamilton will have revenge on their mind since they lost to the Blue Bombers by a 29-23 in the last meeting between these two teams last August 10th. 25* CFL Game of the Month with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (686) plus the point(s) versus the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (685). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-25-19 |
Toronto v. Edmonton -11 |
Top |
0-26 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Edmonton Eskimos (684) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (683). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (3-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 20-10 upset loss at Montreal last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. Toronto (0-5) remained winless this season after their 26-16 loss at Calgary as a 13.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ESKIMOS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. And despite playing the reigning CFL champions better than expected, the Argonauts have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. This Argos team may be the worst team in the league this season in an injury-marred campaign where they lost their first-string starting quarterback, James Franklin, to an injury in the preseason. McLeod Bethel-Thompson lacks significant starting experience in the CFL and comes off a game where he threw four interceptions against the Stampeders. Toronto is getting killed with turnovers this year as they have a -10 net turnover margin so far this season. Unfortunately, I am not optimistic that this trend will slow down anytime soon — especially when they are playing on the road where they have been outscored by -20.6 PPG. The Argonauts have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road. Toronto has not been very good as big underdogs either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games as a double-digit dog while also failing to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games when getting 10.5 to 14 points. The Argonauts have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Edmonton has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits when favorite by at least 6 points. The Eskimos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Returning home to host the Argos may be just what the doctor ordered for this team. Edmonton has won their first two games at home by an average winning margin of +11.5 PPG. The Eskimos are averaging a whopping 508.5 total YPG at home this year while holding their guests to only 228.0 total YPG. Quarterback Trevor Harris should have a field day against this suspect Toronto pass defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.3% of their passes while averaging 304 passing YPG. Edmonton leads the CFL by averaging 426.0 total YPG. The Eskimos defense is also tough — they lead the league with 19 sacks. Edmonton holds their opponents to just 5.94 Yards-Per-Play — and the Argonauts have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games against opponents that do not allow more than 6.0 YPP.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has not scored more than 21 points all season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 21 points in five straight contests. Bethel-Thompson will be hard-pressed to keep his team in this game considering that the Argos’ starting running back, James Wilder, and an important wide receiver in Armanti Edwards who are both out with injuries. The Eskimos have some injuries as well with running back C.J. Gable and wide receiver Davaris Daniels out — but they have a much deeper supporting cast for Harris to operate the offense. 25* CFL Thursday Night Game of the Month with the Edmonton Eskimos (684) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (683). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-19 |
Edmonton v. Montreal UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
10-20 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Eskimos (693) and the Montreal Alouettes (694). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (3-1) enters this game coming off a 33-6 win at British Columbia as a 3-point favorite back on July 11th. Montreal (2-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 36-19 win at Ottawa last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eskimos are playing the best defense in the CFL as they are holding their opponents to just 226.5 total YPG in their four games. They registered five sacks last week against the Lions while holding them to only 210 yards of offense in their win on the road in British Columbia last week. Edmonton has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Eskimos limited BC to just 124 passing yards in that game as well — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 200 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Edmonton held Winnipeg in their building to just 273 yards of offense two weeks ago — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 YPG over their last two contests. But the Eskimos stay on the road for the third straight week which may mean trouble for their offense to continue to execute at a high level. Edmonton is leading the CFL by averaging 452.5 total YPG under their offseason free-agent acquisition in quarterback Trevor Harris. But that number drops to 396.5 total YPG in their two games on the road. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Eskimos last 8 games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set at 52 or higher. Montreal has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 38 points in a victory over an East Division rival. Additionally, the Alouettes have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. After getting routed at home to Hamilton by a 41-10 score back on June 28th, the formula for Montreal’s success has been a commitment to run the football. Running back Willie Stanback rushed 22 times for 203 yards in their 36-29 revenge win at Hamilton the following week before gaining 100 yards on the ground on 18 carries in their upset win at Ottawa. This dedication to running the football has helped the Alouettes burn time off the clock while keeping their defense fresher — and that tends to be a formula for Unders. Montreal held the football for 34:55 minutes while generating 30 first downs two weeks ago against the Tiger-Cats before controlling the time of possession for 33:46 last week while earning 24 first downs — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where they gained at least 22 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 32 minutes. And while the Alouettes have gained 467 and 474 yards in each of their last two games, they have then played 16 of the last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eskimos’ 32-25 win over Montreal back on June 14th in the opening regular-season game for both these teams. Expect the defenses to gain the upper hand in this rematch. 25* Canadian Football League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Eskimos (693) and the Montreal Alouettes (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-19 |
Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
1-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (691) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (692). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (2-2) has suffered their second straight upset loss with their 36-19 loss at home to Montreal as a 9-point favorite last Saturday. Winnipeg (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 48-21 win over Toronto as a 15-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks’ defense played well in the first half as they went into the locker room in a 9-9 deadlocked score — but four turnovers including three lost fumbles eventually were too much for this team to overcome. Ottawa has then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after suffering a loss at home to a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss against an East Division rival as a favorite laying at least 6 points. And while the Redblacks have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after enduring at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Ottawa’s loss to the Alouettes finished above the 51.5 point Total — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Redblacks will be without their starting quarterback Dominique Davis for tonight’s game after he got banged up last week. Instead, Jonathan Jennings will make his first start for Ottawa this season since being signed as a free agent in the offseason. The Redblacks will be leaning on their defense with Jennings at QB despite surrendering 457.3 total YPG. Ottawa has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards per game in their last three contests. The Redblacks have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of July. Winnipeg has played 6 straight games at home Under the Total after a victory by at least 17 points — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Blue Bombers raced out to a 37-6 halftime lead over the Argonauts last week — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring at least 27 points in the first half of their last game. And while Winnipeg has covered all four games they have played this season, they have then played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Blue Bombers lead the CFL by allowing only 365.0 total YPG — and they have limited their four opponents to just 19.7 PPG. I expect Ottawa to play Winnipeg tough — but they may not be able to score enough points with Jennings making his first start under center. The stronger play is with the Under. 25* CFL Friday Night Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (691) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-19 |
Edmonton v. Winnipeg -5 |
Top |
21-28 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (682) minus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (681). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (1-0) comes off their bye for this West Division showdown after they opened their 2019 campaign with a 33-23 win at British Columbia as a pick ‘em back on June 15th. Edmonton (2-0) has won their first two games of the season with their 39-23 win over British Columbia last Friday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE BOMBERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Eskimos have started the season well with two victories at home — but now they go on the road for the first time this year. Edmonton has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning two-straight games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 42 of their last 63 road games after winning two games in a row. The Eskimos have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory at home over a West Division rival. This team made saw some significant changes in the offseason after their disappointing 9-9 season as their 2017 Most Outstanding Player in the league in quarterback Mike Reilly signed a big contract to move to British Columbia. Edmonton responded by signing QB Trevor Harris as a free agent from Ottawa. Harris is a promising quarterback who is clearly top-six in the league — but he is a step back from Reilly who led the team to a Grey Cup championship in 2015. The Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games in the month of June. And while Edmonton has allowed only 104 and 165 passing yards in their first two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 200 passing yards in two straight games. Winnipeg has Grey Cup aspirations this season after they lost to Calgary in the West Division Finals last November. The Blue Bombers added speed and more weapons on offense for QB Matt Nichols to a group that already led the CFL in scoring last season. The Winnipeg defense allowed the fewest points in the league last year — and while they reshuffled their secondary in the offseason, they added defensive end Willie Jefferson to an already stout defensive line. And they still have two-time CFL Outstanding Defensive Player of the Year in Adam Bighill who that won the award in a Blue Bomber uniform last season. The Blue Bombers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Winnipeg is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The early bye week should help Winnipeg who have a game under their belts but can make significant adjustments and improvements from their first real game. The Blue Bombers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a bye week. They will also have revenge on their mind after losing the last game in the regular season to Edmonton by a 33-24 score last November 3rd. 25* CFL Thursday Night ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (682) minus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (681). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Ottawa +5 v. Calgary |
Top |
16-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ottawa Redblacks (667) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (668). Ottawa (12-7) reached the Grey Cup for the second time in three seasons with their 46-27 win over Hamilton last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Calgary (14-5) will be playing in their third straight Grey Cup with their 22-14 win over Winnipeg last week as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBLACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Calgary has dominated the regular season the previous two years only to get upset in the Grey Cup as a big favorite in each of the last two seasons. What is different now? Upon close analysis of their season, I simply do not see anything that differentiates this team from the dominant teams of the previous two seasons. One of the reasons why the Stampeders have underachieved in the Grey Cup is that the colder weather slows down their passing attack. In their win last week against the Bombers, Calgary managed only 294 yards of offense with their Most Outstanding Offensive Player winner Bo Levi Mitchell passing for only 199 net yards. The Stamps may finally lift the Cup tonight — but they are prepared to win this game in a grinding, defensive struggle. Edmonton hosts this game this season — and it is expected to have, relatively, a balmy 35-degree Fahrenheit night. But it is still difficult to execute a vertical passing attack with cold hands. It is telling that Calgary has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a game where they did not pass for at least 200 yards. The Stamps have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Calgary hopes their top-ranked defense will lead the way tonight. But while they have held their two playoff opponents to just 4.73 and 5.41 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing their last two opponents to average above 5.5 YPP. The Stampeders were just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games in the playoffs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight Grey Cups. Ottawa has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. This is an elite franchise under head coach Rick Campbell in the fifth year of the restarted football team in Ottawa. After leading his team to the surprising Grey Cup championship in 2016, his team took a step back last year with an 8-9-1 record. But six of those losses were by 20 combined points (and none by more than a touchdown) while experiencing little luck with turnovers made the difference in their poor start — they did end the season winning seven of their last ten games. This team has won a few more close games — and they are once again stepping up in the playoffs. Quarterback Trevor Harris has enjoyed great regular seasons — but the questions on him going back two years has been his acumen to play in the cold and his ability to handle the pressure of the playoffs. Harris completed 29 of 32 passes last week in Ottawa (not exactly the Bahamas this time of year) for 367 yards with six touchdown passes and zero interceptions. The Redblacks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games on the road. Furthermore, Ottawa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when listed as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Ottawa can make a good case that they have been the second best football team in the CFL over the last three seasons. They will be a confident team with thirteen players still on the roster who pulled this upset two seasons ago. The Redblacks will also have a chip on his shoulder as they look to avenge a 27-3 loss to Calgary back in mid-July in the idyllic days of the World Cup. Calgary has twenty-seven players still on the team that suffered the upset two years ago. Pressure may be the biggest enemy of this team now after two long offseasons disappointment. The Stamps might finally get it done tonight — but it will not be easy. 25* CFL Playoff Game of the Year with the Ottawa Redblacks (667) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (668). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-18 |
Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg -3.5 |
Top |
32-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (656) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (655). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (6-4) won the meeting between these two teams last Sunday in their 31-23 win at home over the Blue Bombers as a 3.5-point favorite. These two teams meet ago in Banjo Bowl in the traditional home-and-home series over Labour Day concludes in Winnipeg.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE BOMBERS PLUS THE POINTS: Winnipeg has lost three straight games which puts them in a desperate situation in this contest as they cannot afford to fall further behind in the West Division standings. The Blue Bombers outgained the Roughriders in that game by a 369 to 341 yardage mark but were stymied by a -2 net turnover margin along with poor special teams play as they allowed a punt return for a touchdown. Winnipeg should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road. The Blue Bombers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two straight games — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing their last two games on the road. Running back Andrew Harris did not practice on Wednesday but head coach Mike O’Shea claimed that “he should be good” to play on Saturday. Harris rushed for 158 yards in that game last week to help Winnipeg out-rush Saskatchewan by +102 net yards — and the Blue Bombers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Winnipeg has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven opportunities to earn some same-season vengeance from an earlier loss that year. Saskatchewan has won three straight games as well as five of their last seven games. But the Roughriders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Now, this Saskatchewan team goes back on the road where they are just 2-2 while being outscored by -4.0 PPG. And while they surrendered only 165 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 200 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg entered the 4th quarter last week with a 20-17 lead before being outscored by a 14-3 margin. The Blue Bombers can take some solace that they outplayed the Roughriders for much of that game. The urgency for this football team should lead them to a decisive victory in this immediate rematch in front of their home fans. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Year with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (656) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-18 |
Toronto +9 v. Hamilton |
Top |
28-42 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Toronto Argonauts (647) plus the points versus the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (648). THE SITUATION: Toronto (3-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday with a 25-22 upset loss in Montreal despite being a 5-point favorite. Hamilton (4-5) called from a 14-point halftime deficit to defeat Edmonton by a 25-24 score as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ARGONAUTS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto had won two straight games over Ottawa and British Columbia so it looked like the defending champions had turned the corner after a slow start to the season — but we were not surprised that they were upset by the Alouettes as we had Montreal in that letdown situation for the Boatmen. But the Argonauts should step up and play one of their best games of the season in their annual Labour Day clash with the Tiger-Cats. Toronto has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Furthermore, the Argonauts have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an East Division rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a divisional foe. Toronto struggled to begin the season when their long-time veteran quarterback yet another injury that will keep him out for at least most of the year. But head coach Marc Trestman may have found his man under center in McLeod Bethel-Thompson who has played very well over his last three games. He completed 26 of 37 passes for 296 yards in that loss to Montreal. Trestman is a great coach who thrived as the head coach for the Alouettes before returning to the NFL where he coached the Bears for a couple of seasons. Trestman will have his team ready for what is a crucial contest for the second spot in the East Division playoff race as the second-half of the season begins. The Argonauts have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of September. And this Toronto team added a very nice piece on offense in Duron Carter who was cut by Saskatchewan last month in a move that had nothing to do with his ability on the field. Hamilton it outgaining their opponents by over +100 Yards Per Game but inconsistency and turnovers have kept them from a winning record. They outgained the Eskimos by a 557 to 362 yard margin last Thursday by a -2 net turnover margin helped Edmonton almost steal that game. Unfortunately, the Tiger-Cats are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 8 points or less. Hamilton has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home. This is the one-year anniversary since the T-Cats brought in June Jones as their head coach. While he has definitely turned this team around after inheriting a team that had lost their first eight games last year. But this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: While Jones has made a big impact with the Tiger-Cats, they are just 10-9 since he took over coaching the team. This is gut check time for the reigning Grey Cup Champions — expect a close game which makes all those points very valuable. 25* CFL East Division Game of the Year with the Toronto Argonauts (647) plus the points versus the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Saskatchewan v. BC -2.5 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-113 |
22 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the British Columbia Lions (368) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (367). THE SITUATION: British Columbia (3-5) looks to bounce-back from a 24-23 upset loss in Toronto last week as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Saskatchewan (4-4) comes off perhaps the biggest upset of the entire CFL season when they handed Calgary their first loss of 2018 campaign with their 40-27 victory at home as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Roughriders are due for a big emotional letdown after they proved that this year’s Stampeders’ team can be beaten. As it is, Saskatchewan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. Now the Roughriders go back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season with an average losing margin of -6.4 PPG. Saskatchewan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting 3 points or less. They are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to Vancouver to face British Columbia — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow West Division foes. British Columbia should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. The Lions were on the path to victory last week before a late fumble stalled their potential game-winning drive. Their -2 net turnover margin overwhelmed their +48 net yardage advantage in that game. British Columbia has lost three of their last four games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after dropping at least two of their last three games. The Lions are playing better football as they had covered the point spread in four straight games before blowing that game last week. BC has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when they are playing with momentum having covered the point spread in at least two of their last three games. They return home where they are a perfect 3-0 in BC Place with an average winning margin of +7.6 PPG. Lastly, while the Lions have played their last three games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight Unders.
FINAL TAKE: British Columbia head coach Wally Buono will surely remind his team of the 41-8 thrashing his team suffered at the hands of the Roughriders when these West Division rivals last faced each other back on August 13th of last season despite being 3-point road favorites in that game. Look for the Lions to earn their revenge in their first opportunity at a rematch. 25* CFL Game of the Month with the British Columbia Lions (368) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (367). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-18 |
Toronto v. Montreal +5.5 |
Top |
22-25 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Montreal Alouettes (364) plus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (363). THE SITUATION: Toronto (3-5) has won two straight games after they upset British Columbia last Saturday by a 24-23 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Montreal (1-8) picks themselves up after a 40-24 drubbing at the hands of the Eskimos in Edmonton.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ALOUETTES PLUS THE POINTS: The reigning Grey Cup Champions may not be able to help themselves from taking this hapless Montreal team lightly after righting their ship and winning their last two games. But both of those victories were just by 1 point apiece — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning their last two games by 3 points or less. The Argonauts were outgained by -48 net yards to the Lions but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin to pull out that win. They are getting good play from journeyman quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson but he is still inexperienced as a starter which helps to make Toronto precarious favorites when playing on the road. As it is, the Argos have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road. Toronto is winless in their three games away from home this season — and they are being outscored by -11.7 PPG. Their three victories this season are by a mere 5 combined points — so they could be also starting at a record as bad as Montreal’s mark. The Boatmen are being outscored by -10.3 PPG for the season while also being outgained by -99.6 net YPG. And in their last 16 games in the month of August, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these contests. Montreal fell behind by a 27-14 score at halftime last week — and they were outgained by -285 yards due to their defense that surrendered 560 total yards. But the Alouettes have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games are allowing at least 27 points in the first-half of their last game. Montreal has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by at least -120 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite these horrific defensive numbers, first-year head coach Mike Sherman is seeing progress with his team. I expected a rocky start in the Canadian Football League for the former Green Bay Packers’ head coach but now is the time I will be looking for progress from his team. Johnny Manziel remains in the concussion protocol this week and is missing practice. If he is cleared to play, he will likely be the third-string QB which is good news as far as I am concerned. Antonio Pipkin got his first career start last week and played well for himself by completing 14 of 25 passes for 217 yards with a TD pass. The Alouettes covers the large 19-point spread last week after playing a red-hot Ottawa team close the previous week by losing by just a 24-17 score on the road. Montreal has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Alouettes may be an ugly team on paper right now but they should continue to play hard for Sherman and keep this game close against an Argonauts team that is still coasting from the vapors of their surprising Grey Cup win last November. 25* CFL East Division Game of the Month with the Montreal Alouettes (364) plus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (355) and the Ottawa Redblacks (356). THE SITUATION: Montreal (1-6) looks to bounce-back from the debut of Johnny Manziel in the CFL which resulted in a humiliating 50-11 loss to Hamilton as a 6.5-point underdog. Ottawa (4-3) looks to rebound from a 42-41 upset loss in Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manziel did not look comfortable under center — he threw four interceptions with three of those passes being ones that were definitely his fault. Manziel needs to learn from those bad mistakes that he simply cannot force the action even if he is no longer playing in the NFL. I expect him to play a more disciplined game after that embarrassment that literally made international headlines. Don’t be surprised if head coach Mike Sherman commits to running the ball more to take the pressure off Manziel in this contest. Tyrell Sutton ran the ball only nine times last week but gained 61 yards on those carries. As it is, the Alouettes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Now Montreal goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. The Alouettes are scoring only 13.7 PPG on the road — but their defense has played better away from home as they are allowing home teams to scoring 21.3 PPG along with averaging 309.0 total YPG which are both much better numbers than their 34.6 PPG/430.1 YPG season averages. Furthermore, Montreal has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog. Ottawa blew a 24-point lead against the Argonauts after holding a 28-7 lead at halftime. While that was a wild game, the Redblacks scored two of their touchdowns from a punt return and an interception return. Expect head coach Rick Campbell to prioritize his team to back to playing better defense after that disastrous second-half. Ottawa has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an East Division rival. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after they scored at least 27 points in the first-half of their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Redblacks should also commit to running the ball more after managing only 46 and 64 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Ottawa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Over might look attractive to many bettors considered that these two teams surrendered 50 and 42 points last week. But Manziel’s interceptions and a crazy second-half contributed greatly to those high scores. Both head coaches want to do whatever they can to reinstall confidence with their defenses — and that should help this contest result in a lower-scoring game. 25* CFL East Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (355) and the Ottawa Redblacks (356). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-02-18 |
Saskatchewan +7 v. Edmonton |
Top |
19-26 |
Push |
0 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Saskatchewan Roughriders (373) plus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (374). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (3-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 34-22 loss to Calgary last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. Edmonton (4-2) has won their last two games with their 44-23 victory in Montreal as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE SASKATCHEWAN PLUS THE POINTS: The Roughriders should bounce-back with a better effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread defeat. Saskatchewan did win the first down and yardage battle while also controlling the Time of Possession with the undefeated Stampeders in that contest. A -2 net turnover margin along with allowing a punt return for a touchdown did the Riders in that game. They have reason for optimism in this contest as Saskatchewan gets two important players back from injury. Defensive back Nick Marshall returns which will allow head coach Chris Jones to return Huron Carter to his preferred position as a wide receiver — and, frankly, that will help both sides of the ball since Carter was beginning to get burned by speedy wideouts. More importantly, starting QB Zack Collars returns from the Injured List and will make the start in this game. The former CFL Most Outstanding Player is a significant upgrade over backup quarterback Brandon Bridge who passed for only 147 yards last week. The offense has been the issue holding this team back with Collaros on the shelf. The Saskatchewan defense has been quite good by holding their opponents to just 316.2 total YPG. This outstanding defense should help keep them close against the Eskimos as they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Edmonton has enjoyed a soft early-season schedule which has featured four games against inferior East Division foes. QB Mike Reilly passed for 415 yards last week against the weak Alouettes’ defense but that may be the recipe for a big letdown now. The Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Edmonton has not enjoyed much of a home field advantage as they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games with the Total set at least at 52. Lastly, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Edmonton is currently considered the second best team in the CFL after the Calgary team that Saskatchewan lost to last week. But asking them to cover a point spread in the touchdown range against this Roughriders team getting their first-string quarterback back. 25* CFL West Division Underdog of the Year with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (373) plus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (374). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-18 |
Ottawa v. Hamilton UNDER 56 |
Top |
21-15 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (365) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (366). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (3-2) comes off a 29-25 win over British Columbia last week as a 6.5-point favorite. Hamilton (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 upset loss at home to Saskatchewan where they were -10.5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Ottawa rushed for only 67 yards in the game after managing only 35 rushing yards the previous week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. Now the Redblacks go back on the road where they are scoring only 21.0 PPG — but they are also allowing only 21.0 PPG while holding their opponents to just 332.0 total YPG. Ottawa has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against East Division foes — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of July. Hamilton saw 51 combined points scored in their last game — but that game also saw two punt returns for touchdowns which added significantly to that tally. The Tiger-Cats defense has stalled as of late with QB Jeremiah Masoli has thrown only one TD pass in his last three games. Head coach June Jones’ offense may not be making enough halftime adjustments as they have scored only 9 combined points in the second halves of their last two games. They were held scoreless in the last 21:42 minutes of their loss to the Roughriders last Thursday. Hamilton has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. The Tiger-Cats have also played 38 of their last 53 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 51 of their last 77 home games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 range. Lastly, Hamilton has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game is rather high with it currently in the mid-50s. There is strong value for taking the Under with both these teams experiencing issues on offense. 25* CFL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (365) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-18 |
BC v. Ottawa -6.5 |
Top |
25-29 |
Loss |
-109 |
62 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ottawa Redblacks (374) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (373). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (2-2) looks to bounce-back from a 27-3 loss at home to Calgary last Thursday. British Columbia (2-2) looks to build off their 20-17 upset win over Winnipeg last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBLACKS MINUS THE POINTS: Ottawa could not have played much worse against the Stampeders as they were burdened by an awful -5 net turnover margin. Expect them to protect the football better this week. The Redblacks have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. Ottawa has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. This Redblacks team is a season removed from winning the Grey Cup. They made the playoffs last year despite losing six games by a combined 20 points. They finished the year by winning seven of their last ten games but were upset by Saskatchewan in the first round of the playoffs. This should be a good offensive team with quarterback Trevor Harris under center who led the CFL in passing efficiency last season along with a 46 to 15 touchdown to interception ratio. Ottawa should play much better on offense in this game as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after failing to score more than 3 points in the first half of their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to for more than 6 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Redblacks rushed for only 35 yards while gaining a total of 169 yards against Calgary, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the spread in 17 of their last 22 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards in their last game. Ottawa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of July. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win at home. BC benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game against the Blue Bombers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they had a +2 net turnover margin. Veteran QB Travis Lulay took over under center for the struggling Jonathan Jennings and he completed 28 of 41 passes for 326 yards. But Lulay might struggle now playing in a hostile environment. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road. British Columbia also suffered a big loss on defense with their star linebacker Solomon Elimimian who went on the Six-Week Injured Reserve earlier this week with an injury.
FINAL TAKE: Ottawa should bounce-back with a strong effort after playing their worst game of the season last week. Both the Redblacks’ losses this season are against the Stampeders. British Columbia has lost both their games on the road this year by a 19 and 22 points respectively. 25* Canadian Football League Game of the Year with the Ottawa Redblacks (374) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-18 |
Toronto v. Edmonton -9.5 |
Top |
15-16 |
Loss |
-105 |
37 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Edmonton Eskimos (364) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (363). THE SITUATION: Toronto (1-2) won their first game of the season last Friday at home when they defeated these Eskimos by a 20-17 score as a 3.5-point underdog. Now, this home-and-home series moves to Edmonton for this turnaround rematch.
REASONS TO TAKE EDMONTON MINUS THE POINTS: The Eskimos outgained the Argonauts by 64 net yards in that game but Red Zone issues played a big role in their upset loss. Edmonton has rebounded to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after an upset loss on the road as the favorite. The Eskimos have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when avenging a same-season loss. Edmonton suffered their third straight game where they lost the turnover battle. The Eskimos have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after suffering at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Toronto may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after an upset win as a home underdog. The Argos have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. QB James Franklin was solid in his first game as the starter after taking over for Ricky Ray who suffered a season-ending head injury. Franklin completed 16 of 24 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown pass and an interception. But he will likely experience a worse game this week having to play in a hostile environment against Eskimos’ coaching staff that will be making adjustments to last week’s game tape. As it is, Edmonton has failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. Lastly, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against East Division foes.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto is the reigning Grey Cup Champions — and I expected them to play their best game of the year last week after dropping their first two games. But the Argonauts are still a work in progress with new defensive coordinator Mike Archer replacing legendary DC Corey Chamblin — and Franklin is still pretty inexperienced as a starting QB in the league. Edmonton has averaged more than 12 wins in their last four seasons while dealing with the heartbreak of losing in the West Division Finals the last three seasons after winning the Grey Cup in 2015. But many consider the Eskimos the favorite to lift the trophy this season — and this veteran group should bounce-back with a strong effort to avenge their loss from last week back at home. 25* CFL ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Edmonton Eskimos (364) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-18 |
Edmonton v. Toronto +5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Argonauts (356) plus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (355). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (2-1) rallied from a 12-point deficit in the first-half last Friday to crush British Columbia by a 41-22 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Toronto (0-2) returns to the field after a bye week that came just in time after they got crushed by a 41-7 score at home to Calgary.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ARGONAUTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eskimos are likely due for a letdown after their offensive explosion last week where they generated 517 total yards. Edmonton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in the last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, while the Eskimos outgained the Lions by +198 net yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +120 yards. This Edmonton team has not been a reliable favorite as of late. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Eskimos are also 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Edmonton also tends to struggle in the heat of summer as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of July. Toronto suffered a tough blow in their last game with a head injury to quarterback Ricky Ray which will likely keep the veteran out the season. This franchise prepared for this possibility of losing Ray when they signed QB James Franklin in the offseason to be the heir apparent under center. The former Eskimo has an outstanding 13:1 touchdown to interception ratio in his career 190 passing attempts that has resulted in 1556 yards. This passing ability along with his mobility has long profiled the former Missouri Tiger to be a great fit in the CFL. The Argonauts won the Grey Cup last year in the first season under head coach Marc Trestman — and this team is likely better than last year’s crop despite the slow start. The bye came at an ideal time for Trestman to tweak his offense to Franklin’s talents. Look for the defense to play much better as well after surrendering 564 yards to the Stampeders — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after allowing at least 550 yards in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: Despite playing two lackluster games in their first two contests of the season, I not that concerned about the Boatmen. Calgary was playing with Grey Cup revenge on their minds while their opening loss of the season was a tough matchup on the road in Saskatchewan against a Roughriders team that was also motivated by revenge from a loss to the Argonauts in the East Division Final. Reigning champs have bullseyes on their chest — but it is time for them to step up given the adversity they have faced this season. Don’t be surprised if Toronto wins this game outright — but take the points for some very attractive insurance. 25* CFL Underdog of the Year with the Toronto Argonauts (356) plus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (355). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
06-29-18 |
BC v. Edmonton -6.5 |
Top |
22-41 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Edmonton Eskimos (376) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (375). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (1-1) looks to bounce-back from an ugly 38-21 upset loss to Winnipeg last Friday as a 6.5-point favorite. British Columbia (1-0) enjoyed their bye-week after a 22-10 win against Montreal in the opening week of the season by a 22-10 score as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE EDMONTON MINUS THE POINTS: The Eskimos should rebound with a very good effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss by double-digits as a favorite laying at least 6 points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a home loss by at least 17 points. Edmonton is the in-vogue pick to win this year’s Grey Cup with them hosting the game in late November. They have averaged at least 12 wins over the last four seasons which included them lifting the Grey Cup trophy in 2015. Since that feat, the Eskimos have lost three straight games in the West Division Finals. Edmonton has led the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against West Division rivals. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Frankly, a 12-point win over the worst team in the CFL who just were crushed by 46 points last week is not a huge accomplishment. This Lions team lost nine of their last eleven games last season while scoring the fewest points in the league. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. British Columbia is also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games against West Division rivals. And in their last 5 meetings with Edmonton, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Edmonton should be very feisty tonight after their bad loss to Hamilton while BC’s first bye week did not come at the most opportune moment of the long CFL season. 25* CFL Game of the Month with the Edmonton Eskimos (376) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (375). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-18 |
Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57 |
Top |
14-24 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (371) and the Calgary Stampeders (372). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (1-0) had the Week One bye — but they came out of the gate like gangbusters last week with a dominant 40-17 win over Saskatchewan as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Calgary (2-0) remained undefeated this season with their 41-7 blowout win in Toronto in the revenge of their Grey Cup loss last Saturday as 4-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks dominated the Roughriders as they outgained them by +114 net yards due to their strong defensive play that limited Saskatchewan to just 345 total yards. Ottawa has then played 16 of their last 26 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +120 yards. It was the Redblacks defense that played a critical role in their late-season progression that led them to win the 2016 Grey Cup. This group regressed last year but the hiring of new defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe is very encouraging for this unit to get back to playing at an elite level given his strong reputation coordinating the Montreal defense for years. Ottawa also added a number of talented free agents to bolster their defensive group. Now the Redblacks go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing with six days or less of rest including playing five of their last seven games played on a Thursday Under the Total. Calgary has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Stampeders have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least four touchdowns on the road. Calgary’s defensive unit remains quite good after suffering heartbreaking losses in the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons. They held an Argonauts team that upset them last November in that championship game to just 215 yards of offense. Moving forward, Calgary has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 24 games Under the Total in the month of June.
FINAL TAKE: With both these offenses reaching the 40 point threshold last week, it might be tempting for some bettors to expect another high-scoring game. While that sentiment has pushed the Total into the high 50s, don’t be surprised if this rematch of the 2016 Grey Cup ends up being decided by the defenses. 25* CFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (371) and the Calgary Stampeders (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-17 |
Calgary v. Toronto +7.5 |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Toronto Argonauts (656) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (655). Calgary (14-4-1) has made the long trek back to the Grey Cup Championship Game after an epic CFL campaign last year was ruined with a 39-33 loss in overtime to Ottawa on the last Sunday in November last season. The Stampeders kept most of their core intact to redeem themselves from last year’s disappointment — and they tore through the regular season which afforded them the opportunity to rest players to be as prepared as physically possible to win the championship this year. I thought the Stamps would come out like gangbusters last week hosting the West Division Final against Edmonton — but they were flat and fell behind by a 14-0 score before rallying to take a 22-15 lead going into halftime and surviving a 32-28 victory over the Eskimos. Edmonton head coach Jason Maas committed a bonehead call of the ages late in that game when he elected to have his team kick a short field goal rather than go for in on 3rd and four (or so — this all going off memory having watched that game, usually I would refer back to the official boxscore). Maas’ decision ruined our point spread cover with the Stamps laying 5 points — but it also cost his team a real chance of pulling the upset if they would have converted that 3rd down and scored a touchdown (or, Coach Maas, if you would have turned the ball over on downs but your defense then forced Calgary to punt — like they would have needed to anyways with successful field goal — your team could have still had time to score a game-tying (or winning with a 2-point conversion) touchdown. The Stampeders were outgained in yardage in that game — and that effort compels me to believe that nothing will be easy for this team if they do accomplish their goal of winning the Grey Cup for the first time since 2014. Regulars know I like to analyze team trends to identify a personality of a team to help diagnose how they have reacted to similar situations. The numbers scream out in this situation. The Stampeders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. Furthermore, Calgary is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in the playoffs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last Grey Cups. The Stamps have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. This game is being played on a neutral field in Ottawa — but that is doing no favors this Calgary team out west. They are only outgaining their opponents by +4.0 PPG away from home — and the most telling stat is that they are only outgaining these teams by +2.4 YPG given suspect play from their defense that allows 356.6 total YPG away from home.
Toronto (10-9) has been a team all season that I thought could make a late run to be dangerous in the playoffs ever since my salad days of June when I do my deep dives on all nine CFL teams. Their head coach Marc Trestman was returning to the CFL for the first time since 2012 after spending a number of seasons in the NFL as an offensive coordinator as well as the head coach for the Chicago Bears for a few seasons. Trestman helped build a dynasty in Montreal with his best asset with the Alouettes being veteran quarterback Anthony Calvillo. The Argonauts seemed a perfect destination for Trestman given the presence of Ricky Ray. The 37-year old is the Dean of all CFL quarterbacks since Calvillo retired. He has multiple Grey Cup Championships under his belt but the biggest question for him over the last few seasons has been keeping his healthy for November football. Voila. Toronto enters this game hot after winning six of their last eight contests with their 25-21 win over Saskatchewan last week. The Stampeders did sweep the regular season series between these two teams with their last meeting way back on August 26th. This Argonauts team is much different now. Running back James Wilder (from Florida State) emerged since then to earn Most Outstanding Rookie honors and his rushing threat has opened up the passing game for Ray. The Argos also added cornerback Mitchell White who helped the defense lower the passing yards they were allowing by 10 YPG. So, this is a much better team — and taking hot underdogs in the playoffs is the formula for success in the long-winding CFL season. In the month of November, CFL underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range who have won three of their last four games have then covered the point spread in 30 of the last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFL Game of the Year with the Toronto Argonauts (656) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-17 |
Edmonton v. Calgary -5 |
Top |
28-32 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
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At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Calgary Stampeders (654) minus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (653). Calgary (13-4-1) enters the playoffs having lost three straight games after they were upset in their last regular season game by West Division rival Winnipeg back on November 3rd by a 23-5 score as an 8.5-point favorite. Starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell along with a number of other core players did not play in that game to rest and prepare for the playoffs. It has been Grey Cup Championship or bust for this team all season after they enjoyed one of the most dominant regular season campaigns in Canadian Football League history last year with a 15-2-1 record before getting stunned in the Grey Cup Final to Ottawa in a 39-33 overtime loss. I think this team looks poised to explode with a big game against an Eskimos team that just defeated them by a 29-20 score back on October 28th. Calgary has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after an upset loss to a division rival in their last game. The Stampeders have also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Calgary has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after a game where 31 or fewer combined points were scored. The Stamps are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow West Division rivals. Home field advantage will play a big role as well as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home. And in their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range, Calgary has covered the point spread 12 times. With most of the team intact from the disappointing end from last season, expect a big effort from this Stampeders team.
Edmonton (13-6) enters this game coming off a 39-32 win at Winnipeg last week in the opening round of the playoffs. The Eskimos generated 473 yards of offense while averaging 8.45 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Edmonton has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 8.1 YPP. Furthermore, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games after at least 70 combined points were scored. This is a very tough assignment for this Edmonton team that is playing on the road for their third straight contest. The Eskimos have failed to cove the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to play in the Divisional Finals of the playoffs. Edmonton is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games on the road. And in their last 6 trips to Calgary, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Year with the Calgary Stampeders (654) minus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-20-17 |
Saskatchewan v. Calgary UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
30-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saskatchewan Roughriders (651) and the Calgary Stampeders (652). Calgary (13-1-1) has won eleven straight games with their 28-25 win at Hamilton last Friday as a 9.5-point favorite. The Stampeders have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a victory on the road where they failed to cover the point spread. Calgary has also played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after win by 3 points or less — and this includes playing sixteen of their last twenty-one games Under the Total with a win on the road by a field goal or less. And in their last 8 games after a point spread loss, the Stamps have played 6 of these games Under the Total. This Calgary team needs a win to clinch the West Division and secure home field up until the Grey Cup. They lead the CFL by holding opponents to just 326.0 total YPG. Moving forward, the Stampeders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of October. Calgary has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against West Division foes, the Stampeders have played 6 of these games Under the Total.
Saskatchewan (8-7) looks to bounce-back from a 33-32 loss to Ottawa last Friday on a 3.5-point favorite. The Roughriders have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Saskatchewan cannot get their running game going as they have not rushed for more than 72 yards in their last five games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in two straight games. This team did pick of Trent Richardson from the NFL scrap heap — and he ran for 60 yards on 14 carries last week. The Riders need this win to clinch a playoff spot. Injuries in their secondary have forced Chris Jones to tap Duron Carter to start in their defensive backfield in this emergency — Chris Carter’s son will be pulling double-duty since he is their best wide receiver. So, there is plenty of drama with this team. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of October. Saskatchewan has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. Furthermore, the Roughriders are looking to avenge a 15-9 loss to the Stampeders back on September 24th. Saskatchewan has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a same-season loss. Lastly, these two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total. 25* CFL West Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saskatchewan Roughriders (651) and the Calgary Stampeders (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-24-17 |
Calgary v. Saskatchewan +6.5 |
Top |
15-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Saskatchewan Rough Riders (616) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (615). Saskatchewan (6-5) has won four of their last five games with their 27-19 win in Hamilton back on September 15th. This Roughriders team has definitely raised their level of play midway through the second year under the leadership of head coach Chris Jones who was hired to completely rebuild this franchise after he led Edmonton to a Grey Cup in 2015. This team was without their starting quarterback Kevin Glenn last week — but Canadian born Brandon Bridge completed 21 of 31 passes for 231 yards and three TD passes (no interceptions) in that victory over the T-Cats. It looks like Glenn will be able to take the field this afternoon but the backup Bridge looks capable. This Roughriders team will be chomping at the bit to prove themselves against the cream of the crop in the CFL with this Stampeders team that crushed them by a 27-10 score back on July 22nd. But now the weather is cooling in the month of September — and Saskatchewan has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the September month. The Roughriders have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games getting 7 or less points. Historically, Saskatchewan has covered the point spread in a decisive 48 of their last 72 games at home as an underdog.
Calgary (10-1-1) has won eight straight games with their 27-19 win over British Columbia back on September 15th. The Stampeders benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they enjoyed at least a +3 net turnover margin. Frankly, this Stampeders team has not been as dominant this season as they were last year — which went all for naught when they lost to Ottawa in the Grey Cup. Calgary is 3-1-1 in the five games this season that have been decided by 7 points or less. Injuries are also impacting this team with QB Bo Levi Mitchell banged up and him dealing with a depleted wide receiver corps with LeMar Durant, Kamar Jordan and DaVaris Daniels all dealing with various issues. Lastly, the Stampeders are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Month with the Saskatchewan Rough Riders (616) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-04-17 |
Toronto v. Hamilton +5 |
Top |
22-24 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (358) plus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (357). Hamilton (0-8) has been a terrible disappointment this season having lost all their games this season despite having playoff expectations after losing by a 24-21 score to these same Argonauts in the East Division Semifinals last November. Getting healthy again after enduring an injury-plagued year provided this franchise a sense of optimism. But enough was enough as this football team has used their bye week after a 37-18 loss to Ottawa back on August 18th to hire June Jones as their new head coach. Junes has had success wherever he has coached (including with the Atlanta Falcons in the NFL) — and his Run-and-Shoot offensive principles should find success in the three-down Canadian Football League. Perhaps even more importantly in the short-run, his arrival offers this roster and franchise a blank slate to start over. And despite still looking for their first win this evening, the Tiger-Cats are not out of the playoff race given the fealty of the other competitors in the East Division. This will be Hamilton’s third straight game at home which gives them as good of a situational advantage as there can be when considering they are also coming off a bye week. The T-Cats have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after suffering two straight losses at home. And while Hamilton has failed to cover the point spread in six of their eight games this season, they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. An early move that Jones has done is bench former Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Zack Collaros for former Oregon Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli. Both are fine CFL quarterbacks but the move will help to jumpstart some momentum for the Tiger-Cats.
Toronto (4-6) has lost four of their last five games after a 23-7 loss in Calgary last Friday as a 10-point underdog. The Argonauts have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 15 games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Argonauts have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 11 games on the road, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. 25* CFL East Division Game of the Year with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (358) plus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-25-17 |
Saskatchewan v. Edmonton -5.5 |
Top |
54-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Edmonton Eskimos (374) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (373). Saskatchewan (3-4) comes off their best game of the season back on August 13th with their 41-8 thrashing at home against British Columbia as a 3-point underdog. This may be one of this situations where the bye week comes at the wrong time as it stalls building momentum for a team on the rise. As it is, the Roughriders have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Saskatchewan benefited from a +5 net turnover margin in that contest with the Lions. But now they go on the road where they are just 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road. Furthermore, the Roughriders have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Saskatchewan has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record. The Roughriders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of August. And in their last 6 games against West Division rivals, Saskatchewan has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
Edmonton (7-1) lost their first game of the season last week with their 33-26 loss in Winnipeg as a 1-point underdog. Despite their torrid start to the season, the Eskimos have performed well despite being ravaged by a slew of injuries that continues with more injuries occurring on both sides of the ball. But the team still has quarterback Mike Reilly who completed 20 of 33 passes for 356 yards in defeat. Despite all these injuries, Edmonton has been consistently dominant all season. They are outgaining their opponents by +77.5 net YPG. Expect them to bounce-back with a strong effort as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. The Eskimos are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Lastly, Edmonton will be playing with revenge on their mind after the Roughriders upset them in their last meeting going back to last year’s 26-23 loss back on September 18th. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Month with the Edmonton Eskimos (374) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-24-17 |
Winnipeg v. Montreal +105 |
Top |
34-31 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Montreal Alouettes (372) plus the point(s) versus the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (371). Montreal (3-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 38-6 blowout loss in Toronto last week as a 2-point underdog. We had the Argonauts in that game (our East Division Game of the Month) with Toronto playing with immediate revenge from a loss to the Alouettes the week before — and they were getting their star quarterback Ricky Ray back for that game. But now look for Montreal to rally around each other as they look to redeem themselves from last week’s listless effort. The Alouettes have rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread setback. QB Darian Durant struggled last week by completing only 14 of 27 passes for 93 yards in that game — but Montreal has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they failed to pass for at least 150 yards. The Alouettes scored their lone touchdown on an interception return so their offense will be anxious to prove themselves after failing to account for a single point. Montreal has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.
Winnipeg (6-2) has won four straight games with their 33-26 win over Edmonton last week. The Blue Bombers absolutely dominated the previously undefeated Eskimos as they held the ball for 36:12 of that contest which helped them generate 560 yards of offense while also winning the first down battle by a 38-21 margin. This Winnipeg team is ripe for a big emotional letdown — and, as it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after a game where they accumulated at least 24 first downs while controlling the ball for at least 34 minutes. Despite their winning record, the Blue Bombers are only outgaining their opponents by +4.1 net YPG. They are being fueled by a +7 net turnover margin — but that is a precarious way to rely on winning football games given the randomness of the bouncing ball. Additionally, while Winnipeg has not committed more than one turnover in four straight games, Canadian Football League teams that have not committed more than one turnover in at least four straight contests have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of the last 31 situations (81%) where these conditions applied. Lastly, in their last 5 meetings with Montreal, the Blue Bombers have failed to cover the point spread 4 times. 25* CFL Game of the Month with the Montreal Alouettes (372) plus the point(s) versus the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (371). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-19-17 |
Montreal v. Toronto -1.5 |
Top |
6-38 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Argonauts (358) minus the points versus the Montreal Alouettes (357). Montreal (3-4) looks to build off their 21-9 win over Toronto last Friday as an 8-point favorite. The Alouettes have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while Montreal has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. The Alouettes won that game last week despite losing the first down battle by a 20-19 margin while also being outgained by 11 yards.
Toronto (3-5) was without their starting quarterback Ricky Ray last week as he dealt with an injury — but after practicing with the first team this week, it has been confirmed that he will take the field this afternoon. Last week, the Argos split time under center between Cody Fajardo and Jeff Matthews — and that is a dramatic difference than Ray who remains the best QB in the CFL when healthy. Despite their losing record, Toronto is outgaining their opponents by +42.5 net YPG. The Argonauts have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games — but CFL teams with a losing record who have failed to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games have covered the point spread in 71 of the last 108 situations (66%) where these conditions applied. 25* CFL East Division Game of the Month with the Toronto Argonauts (358) minus the points versus the Montreal Alouettes (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-18-17 |
Ottawa v. Hamilton UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
37-18 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (353) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (354). Ottawa (1-6-1) continued their tough-luck season last week with a 27-20 loss to Edmonton as a 2.5-point favorite. All six of the losses for the reigning Grey Cup champions have been by 7 points or less. Offense was the problem last week as the Redblacks managed only 308 yards of offense. They held the ball for only 23:30 minutes again the Eskimos so controlling the clock and keeping their defense off the field should be a priority tonight. Moving forward, Ottawa has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against fellow divisional opponents. And in their last 11 games against East Division foes, Ottawa has played 8 of these games Under the Total.
Hamilton (0-7) remains winless after their 39-12 loss to Winnipeg last week. The Tiger-Cats managed only 247 yards of offense in that contest. While the offense struggles under quarterback Zack Collaros, Hamilton needs to get back to basics by playing better on the defensive side of the football. The Tiger-Cats are last in the CFL by scoring just 18.6 PPG and averaging only 281.1 total YPG. Hamilton stays at home where they have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total. The T-Cats have also played 37 of their last 58 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. Lastly, while the Redblacks allow 85 rushing YPG, Hamilton has played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 90 rushing YPG. 25* CFL East Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (353) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-13-17 |
BC v. Saskatchewan UNDER 56.5 |
Top |
8-41 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the British Columbia Lions (377) and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (378). Saskatchewan (2-4) looks to avenge a 30-15 loss at British Columbia last week. The Roughriders have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a same-season loss to their opponents. First order of business for head coach Chris Jones is to get better play out of his defense after they surrendered 537 yards of offense to the Lions. Jones is a defensive-guru who earned his stripes leading the Edmonton Eskimos to the 2015 Grey Cup based on their ferocious defense — so expect some quality adjustments in this immediate rematch. Saskatchewan managed only 334 yards of offense last week with quarterback Kevin Glenn struggling so expect Jones to try to win a low-scoring game. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Saskatchewan. And in the Roughriders’ last 7 games against fellow West Division opponents, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
British Columbia (5-2) completely dominated the Roughriders last week — they were leading 30-0 until giving up 15 meaningless points in the last 3:15 of that contest. The Lions have played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a field goal in the first-half of their last game. BC has also played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least 120 net yards. Additionally, the Lions have played 20 of their last 27 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. And in their last 4 games in the month of August, the game finished Under the Total all 4 times. Lastly, the Under is supported by a historical angle that has been 70% effective since 1996. Saskatchewan forced one turnover last week — and in games with the Total set at least at 56, when the home team comes off a game where they did not force more than one turnover, these games finished Under the Total in 56 of the last 80 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFL ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the British Columbia Lions (377) and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-17 |
BC +3 v. Edmonton |
Top |
26-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the British Columbia Lions (373) plus the point(s) versus the Edmonton Eskimos (374). British Columbia (4-1) will be looking to avenge a 30-27 upset loss at home to Edmonton in the opening week of the CFL season despite being a 4-point favorite in that game. The Lions have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 encounters with the Eskimos. Remember, BC was clearly the second best team in the league last year — just behind Calgary who defeated them in the West Division Finals before they were upset in the Grey Cup by Ottawa. British Columbia has since won four straight games this season with their 45-42 win over Winnipeg last week as a 4-point favorite. The Lions have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. BC has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in July. The team will likely have the veteran Travis Lulay under center again with Jonathan Jennings still recovering with a bum shoulder. Considering that Lulay has passed for more than 400 yards in two straight games (and wins), BC has the luxury to wait until Jennings is 100% again before putting him back on the field. Moving forward, the Lions have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road.
Edmonton (4-0) remains the last undefeated team in the CFL with their 31-28 win at Hamilton last week. The Eskimos are then just 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games after a win. Edmonton has already been hit by the injury bug this year with the biggest loss being the season-ender to their top running back John White IV. Now the team has lost their slot receiver Adarius Bowman who was the top receiver in the CFL last year with 120 receptions for 1761 yards. Despite their perfect record, the Eskimos are only outscoring their opponents by +3.0 PPG. British Columbia is outscoring their opponents by +7.0 PPG. The Lions are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of July. BC has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against West Division foes. And in their last 12 games at home, Edmonton has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these games. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Month with the British Columbia Lions (373) plus the point(s) versus the Edmonton Eskimos (374). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-27-17 |
Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
40-41 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (371) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (372). Winnipeg (2-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 45-42 loss at British Columbia last Friday. The Blue Bombers were outscored by an 18-0 score in the 4th quarter to blow that game. Now Winnipeg returns home likely with a hangover which might be difficult for them to shake out of after such a collapse. As it is, the Blue Bombers have seen the Under go 12-5-2 in their last 19 games at home. They do have the league’s best run defense. On offense, they are averaging just 348.5 total YPG which is second-to-last in the CFL. Moving forward, the Under is 4-1-1 in Winnipeg’s last 6 games when playing on a Thursday.
Montreal (2-3) returns to action after enjoying a bye week. The Alouettes have lost three of their last four games with their 24-19 loss at Ottawa as a 4.5-point underdog back on July 19th. Montreal has then played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 25-10-1 in their last 36 games after a straight-up loss. Offense has also been an issue for this team as they just slightly better than the Blue Bombers by averaging 371.6 total YPG which is 7th in the CFL. But defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe is doing a great job with his defense as the Alouettes lead the CFL by holding teams to just 21.8 PPG. Montreal has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of July. They have also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range. Furthermore, in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 88-31-4 combined angle for this situation. Lastly, because the Alouettes suffered from a -2 net turnover margin in their last game against the Redblacks, the Under is supported by a situational angle that has been 63% effective since 1996. In games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range, when one team comes off a game where they had at least a -2 net turnover margin, these games finished Under the Total in 125 of the last 199 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFL ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (371) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-17 |
Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 50 |
Top |
19-24 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (351) and the Ottawa Redblacks (352). Montreal (2-2) enters this game coming off a 30-23 upset win over Calgary last Friday. The Alouettes now go on the road where they have played 7 straight games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 49.5-56 point range. Montreal has also played 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Additionally, the Alouettes have seen the Under go 17-5-1 in their last 23 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 9 games in the month of July, Montreal has played 7 of these games Under the Total.
Ottawa (0-3-1) is desperate for a victory after their 23-21 win at Edmonton last Friday. The Redblacks have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in Ottawa’s last 6 games in the month of July. Together, these team trends produce our specific 58-16-2 combined angle for this situation. 25* CFL East Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (351) and the Ottawa Redblacks (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-17 |
Toronto v. Winnipeg -3 |
Top |
25-33 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (372) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (371). Winnipeg (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a rough 29-11 loss at home to Calgary as a 3.5-point underdog last Friday. The Blue Bombers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Quarterback Matt Nichols will look to redeem himself after tossing two interceptions in that game. But remember that Winnipeg has still won eleven of their last fifteen games going back to last season since Nichols took over as their starter under center. And the Blue Bombers’ defense has continued to be great at forcing turnovers. After leading the CFL by far with 30 interceptions, Winnipeg so far leads the league (despite being one of the three teams to have a bye week) with four interceptions. Moving forward, the Blue Bombers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record.
Toronto (2-1) comes off a 26-25 upset win at Ottawa last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Now the Argonauts stay on the road while playing on a short-week just five days since their last game. As it is, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, not only has the Argonauts failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog but they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games when getting 3 points or less as the dog. Furthermore, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. And in their last 11 games against West Division foes, the Argos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 42-9 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* CFL Game of the Month with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (372) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (371). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-08-17 |
Toronto +4.5 v. Ottawa |
Top |
26-25 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 50 m |
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At 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Argonauts (355) plus the points versus the Ottawa Redblacks (356). Toronto (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 28-15 upset loss to British Columbia as a 1.5-point favorite last Friday. This was a disappointing effort for former Chicago Bears head coach Marc Trestman who had his team look outstanding in his first game back in the Canadian Football League in a 32-15 blowout victory over Hamilton. Look for the Argonauts to play much better against the reigning Grey Cup Champions tonight. The marriage between Trestman who has been long considered a quarterback guru with veteran Ricky Ray continued to be fruitful last week even in defeat. The 37-year old completed 30 of 45 passes for 327 yards and he is overseeing an offense that leads the CFL in passing yards. Toronto is also getting improved play from their defensive unit under new defensive coordinator Corey Chamblin. The former Saskatchewan Roughriders head coach — who led them to a Grey Cup in that capacity — has dialed up the complexity of the coverage schemes and blitz packages. While Toronto was just 5-13 last season, that record needs to be taken with a grain of salt given another injury-riddled campaign for Ray. When the veteran is healthy and on the field as he is now, the Argos are a much better team considering that Ray is now the Dean of all CFL quarterbacks. Furthermore, Toronto has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in the month of July.
Ottawa (0-1-1) completed their initial home-and-home swing with Calgary in a rematch of last November’s Grey Cup with a 43-39 loss on the Stampeders home field. Expect the Redblacks to suffer an emotional letdown after these two initial contests. As it is, while Ottawa did cover the 7.5-point spread in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover. The Redblacks lost five starters from the defensive unit that started in last year’s Grey Cup so this is a team in transition. They were also a team that benefited from the weak East Division — they were actually outgained in yardage during the 2016 season but won the division with their 8-9 record. Moving forward, Ottawa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of July. Additionally, the Redblacks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored in the 3.5 to 10 point range. 25* CFL East Division Game of the Month with the Toronto Argonauts (355) plus the points versus the Ottawa Redblacks (356). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-17 |
BC v. Toronto UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
28-15 |
Win
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100 |
44 h 16 m |
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At 7:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the British Columbia Lions (373) and the Toronto Argonauts (374). Toronto (1-0) had the biggest win by the largest margin in the opening week of the new Canadian Football League season with their 32-15 upset victory over Hamilton. At first glance, the headlining story would likely be quarterback Robby Ray passing for 506 yards under the guidance of new head coach Marc Trestman in his first game back in the CFL after a tour in the National Football League which included a head coaching gig with the Chicago Bears. But perhaps the more exciting development for the Argonauts franchise was the play of their defense which held the Tiger-Cats to just 258 yards of offense. Trestman hired former Saskatchewan head coach (and Grey Cup winner) Corey Chamblin as his defensive coordinator and he displayed a high level of sophisticated blitz schemes and coverages despite the turnover that this team saw on defense from last season. This strong defensive play should carry over to this week. As it is, the Argonauts have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. Additionally, Toronto has played 26 of their last 36 home games when not laying more than 3 points as the favorite. Furthermore, the Argonauts have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the month of June.
British Columbia (0-1) will be looking to bounce-back from a 30-27 upset loss to Edmonton last week despite being a 4.5-point favorite. Lions’ quarterback Jonathon Jennings was sacked five times in that game in what might be a harbinger for things to come for this offense. British Columbia chose not to resign left tackle Jovan Olafioye in the offseason with the six-time All Star signing a big contract with Montreal. It might take some time for this group to get things together on the offensive side of the field as they try to replace Olafioye. In the meantime, the Lions will need to lean heavily on their defense that topped the league last year in total defense. And while that unit has lost half their starters from last season — including three to the NFL — British Columbia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of June. Furthermore, in the last 26 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 19 times — and they have played 13 of the last 16 meetings between these two teams Under the Total when playing in Toronto. Lastly, the Under is supported by a CFL-specific empirical angle that has been 72% effective over the last five seasons. In games with the Total set at least at 52, when the road team is coming off a point spread loss, these games finished Under the Total in 41 of the last 57 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the British Columbia Lions (373) and the Toronto Argonauts (374). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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